Syrian Roulette

Syrian Roulette

August 30, 2016

This comment was chosen by Mod TR from the post  “Erdogan Calls Putin as Russia Seethes at Turkey’s Syrian Incursion”. The moderator believes this comment gives another perspective on the complex war in Syria. There are so many different players each with their own interests and agendas – nothing is clear cut in the constantly changing playbook that is the Syrian war.

Comment by Larchmonter445


“Better Understanding”? from Mercouris and Sleboda?

This is typical all or nothing bemoaning that the Kremlin critics and Putin critics always profess.

Syria is the most complex war in modern history. It makes the Balkans in the 90’s look like the 2008 “war” in Georgia.

Syria has so many nation-states, financiers, weapons suppliers, ideologies, religions and geo-political rivals that a Play Book is mandatory, but it has to be published daily.

Why wouldn’t Turkey do what it just did? Invade, project its power in an operation that has been on the books for a year or more? Everyone knew it was coming.

And if you knew, as the Russian Intel and military knew, of course, and it had been discussed at the top level before it started, then the US air support was approved by Russia. Had to be to get through the Russian S400 control of the skies. And so, the article in Kommersant is typical analyst talk and the RBTH stuff explains that the obvious is the obvious.

Turkey is acting solely in its interests. It must control the Kurds. It had to do what it did. And only the US would help. And the US double-crossed the very group of Kurds who bled and died for Manjib while the Kurds then saw the US withdraw its ISIS proxies from the vengeance of Turkey’s incursion.

That is the key here. The Kurds have no real ally in the US. That leaves a huge opening for Russia to use them when they want. And Turkey knows that, also.

Did anyone think Turkey would just get in line with Russia? It’s a long way from NATO to SCO.
Meanwhile, economics dictates their immediate relationship. Tourism by charter flights is going forward. Commodities trade is going forward. Gas pipeline is going forward.

The key is whether the Russian military assists the rebuilding of Turkey’s military and whether the Russian Intel agencies rebuild the Turkish Intel capabilities.

Turkey staying in NATO is no big thing unless NATO decides to go to war in Syria to “protect” Turkey. Who does Turkey need protection from? How much support will that war have in the next five months in the capitals of the EU nations? The Russian missile defense will have to be destroyed for NATO to support Turkey. What are the consequences? Nuclear war. So, Turkey gains nothing from being with NATO. And Turkey’s great strength for NATO was its Air Force, now problematic because it was the seat of the coup.

Turkey is using NATO and the US while it is weakened so it does not depend solely on Russia for protection. That realization of Turkey’s strategic weakness is often overlooked because of its internal weakness caused by Kurds, and now ISIS, and the refugees encamped inside and near or passing through Turkey.

Turkey is not double-crossing anyone. It is acting with whatever means it can to protect itself.
Putin understands it.

Announcing that the Russian General is not going to Turkey is just commonsense. The combat operation confused the moment. Everyone had to step back. Russia has done the same several times during its combat operations. It modifies its tactics and weapons use. It works diplomacy when many people think the military is doing just fine. It uses humanitarian efforts (at cost of its soldiers) when the opportunity or need is imperative. All these adjustments are realities that have to be faced.

Russia is in Syria to hold the nation together. It is probably the most difficult military task in the last 80 years. And it is slowly winning.

Turkey aside, what is the state of the war?

Can the US and Turkey continue to work their plan to both establish Kurdistan and stop Kurdistan, respectively? Dwell on that one for a moment.

Can the US continue to embed in Al Sham (the newly branded Al Nusra) and not suffer deaths of its special ops? Russia has given notice that anyone fighting Assad is a target. So, the day is coming shortly, and that will change the US actions.

The price of oil is rising. Russia will be able to do more.

China is stepping a toe, a military toe, into the war. They will bring more material and base inside Syria and probably off-shore.

The capacity for the final year (2017) of war will be all on the side of Russia-Syria and the Syrian coalition.

Turkey will be evaluating itself. If it thinks it can once again trust the US, it is like the snake handler who thinks just one more bite won’t be fatal. The snake kills everyone in the end. Erdogan is not about to be a lackey or allow Turkey to be a vassal. That is a certainty. He is no Poroschenko.

Wolfowitz’s mapmakers in the US are busy drooling over Turkey’s move. They believe the US suddenly pulled off a great tactical move, screwing the Kurds and saving the ISIS fighters from Turkey’s tank fire.

The really big deal is the re-arming of Al Sham and the prolongation of misery and combat in Aleppo. The US has formally and openly chosen the worst terror group as ally.

Russia will decide this in the end. What we are seeing in Syria is what we saw in Cambodia. The US created a monster death machine and then blamed the Vietnamese for invading and saving the Cambodians from the collapse of humanity.

The shape of the battle zone Russia is working has not changed. Eventually, the border will be an issue. And Turkey will find itself face to face with adjustments it must accept.

Turkey and Erdogan have nothing large to gain by working on the US side. He can see and smell the war. And if he resists Russia’s goals, a new gateway could be opened on the Turks for Kurds/ISIS to flow in and bog down his entire nation in a terror war he could only imagine in a nightmare.

His future is in doubt. He can’t trust his Air Force. He can’t trust his navy. He can’t trust the US. He really can’t trust the EU and he certainly cannot trust NATO.

Describing his situation as a break away from Russia, Eurasia, SCO is ludicrous.

He needs what Russia has. Iran, China, SCO, the capacity to control the war in Syria and win it.
And all the economics with Russia. Erdogan understood who called him and offered support during the coup. It was Eurasia.

Actually, when he called the US for help for the incursion, air cover, it forced the US to double cross the Kurds. Give Erdogan points for such a clever move.

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