September 17, 2016
Israeli evacuation simulation (archive)
Introducing the internal front maneuvers, supposed to kick off next week, “Israel” intended to share a bunch of studied propaganda information, which aims at “adapting” the “Israeli” audience with the size of missile threat, without terrifying it, as well as publicizing readiness among the opposing fronts.
Ali Haidar /Al-Akhbar Newspaper
As part of Tel Aviv’s policy after the 2006 war with Hezbollah, and learning lessons from that war, “Israel” is preparing its audience to submit to the fact that any later military confrontation will lead to bombing the internal front.
In this regard, the policy of “adapting” the audience with the huge threat comes to surface as the number of the opposite group’s missiles becomes public.
Aiming at comparison, with failing one of the main pillars in the “Israeli” dogma, which is based -among other elements- on fortifying the internal front and moving the battle to the enemy’s land, the “Israeli” leadership was keen to delude its audience that in the worst case scenario, when “Israel” gets engaged in a multi-front war with Lebanon, Syria, Gaza and Iran, the “best” scenario is being exposed to the less humanitarian loss and less possible of the missiles hitting “Israeli” targets.
On the other hand, “Israel” attempted, through the report, to send a specific message to its enemies, in which it stressed that it is continuing its readiness. The report was based on an acquisition that it has been more in need of this image (the internal front’s readiness) to boost its deterring power. This acquisition of Tel Aviv’s political and security decision maker is based on the advancement Hezbollah has made regarding the future confrontation strategy. Hezbollah transformed the missile weapon into a main pillar in the counter-strategy to achieve the most possible deterring power on both strategic and practical levels against the “Israeli” technological and military superiority, in the air, land and sea.
In parallel to the directed propaganda, “Israel” couldn’t ignore the fact that such drills, as well as their media promotion, reveal direct and official confession that the internal front became an integral part of the battlefields, in any military confrontation. This was pointed out by Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in the speech he delivered during the tenth anniversary of the 2006 war, as he said that
“the “Israeli” military belief which was based on… the army fighting on the enemy’s land or on the border, while the internal front is safe and sound enjoying the seashore… all of this is over.”
“Israel” doesn’t deny the fact that such transformation in the practical and strategic concept, which became possible in all of the army’s plans and maneuvers, became crystal-clear in the results of the 2006 war, and its consequences and repercussions have affected the political decision.
Besides, the “Israeli” media message that attempted to show that the missile artillery’s influence on the internal front is limited contradicts the much disciplined “Israeli” practical performance in confronting Hezbollah particularly. The most significant of such contradiction is the mutual deterring equation of which Hezbollah and its allies had provided a wide margin to resume building its military and missile abilities and developing them, as well as in the confrontation against the armed and terrorist groups in Syria and Lebanon.
Haifa Ammonia Reservoir
“Israel” ignored the scenario of hitting hundreds of sensitive targets not to terrify its audience.
Israelis are concerned that in the next war with Hezbollah, the Lebanese group will target petrochemical tanks in the North.
The drill scenario as well, contradicts with what the commander of the northern brigade had confessed. According to “Maariv” newspaper, Major General Eren Makov said that
the future war with Hezbollah will be very fierce on the northern front and the internal front as well, noting that Hezbollah has more than 100,000 missiles of different ranges, which means there is not any safe area in “Israel”.
Relatively, it is clear that a huge part of the promotional propaganda of the maneuver is addressing the public opinion rather than being a serious and useful attempt to affect the Hezbollah and Syria decision maker. It is not also an introduction for real influence in the regional equation.
It could be affirmed that the decision-makers in “Israel” have sensed, with their experience, the deep beliefs of its enemy on the northern front, in addition to the regional depth, which provides that the escalating development track regarding the northern front would have critical influence yet proportional. It is way far than providing a radical solution for the resistance’s deterring ability, which mainly relies on the missile power especially that it comes in parallel with also an escalating pattern in developing Hezbollah’s abilities on both quantitative and qualitative levels.
One evidence reflecting such concept is the “Israeli” regress after Hezbollah’s response to its attempts of expanding the circle of its direct military aggressions in Lebanon, in the past years, or when exceeding certain limits in Syria, not to forget the deterring messages addressed by Sayyed Nasrallah months earlier.
Anyhow, the “Israeli” internal front’s maneuver, whose name was changed by the “Israeli” military leadership from “A Turning Point” to “Standing Firm”, comes amid successive field victories achieved by the axis of resistance in Syria, and was strongly echoed in Tel Aviv, which found it signaling an increase in the risk index against its national security. “Israel” was betting that what is happening in Syria will suffice it from resuming this level of development and increasing preparations and readiness through overthrowing the Syrian regime and surrounding Hezbollah in an attempt to omit it from the internal and regional equation. However, all the bets have disappeared according to the Knesset’s Chairman of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Avi Dichter, who confessed that the “Israeli” intelligence failed in its estimations of overthrowing President al-Assad, so as western and Arab intelligence failed.
As “Israel” is facing undeniable risky reality, yet having some chances, it is still in progress of increasing its readiness and preparations, including its northern front maneuvers next week. Introducing the drills, “Israel” uncovered a group of information summing up the supposed simulation scenario, including: multi-front war with Lebanon, Golan, Iran and Gaza. The drill supposes that only 1% of the missiles that will be launched toward the “Israeli” depth would directly hit populated areas. In this regard, “Israeli” media reports noted that some 230,000 missiles, of different kinds and ranges, are directed towards “Israel”.
According to “Israeli” media promotion, the drills scenario, also supposes that a minimum of 350 or 400 “Israelis” will be killed in the multiple-front war.
In a related context, Hebrew reports noted yesterday that “Israel” in the coming war will be subject to incursion operations by Hezbollah Special Forces near the borders. The reports further added that Hezbollah owns hundreds of unmanned drones, most of which are offensive and Iranian-made, and are assigned to confront the “Israeli” airpower. Besides, the early warning systems will be operating, in addition to lessening the number of evacuated members to 750,000.
However, the most important in the entire maneuver is that it was keen to apply the hypothesis of the less number of injuries in comparison with the battle, and the less number of successful missiles, in addition to the least depth of land incursion. In return, the “Israeli” leadership intended to ignore the most logical scenario. This scenario is based on the strong “Israeli” publicized estimations over years that Hezbollah, in particular, could target hundreds of military and strategic goals in the the “Israeli” depth.
Translated by website team