Saleh’s war was allocated against Al-Hariri and Al-Barzani حرب صالح كانت للحريري والبرزاني

Saleh’s war was allocated against Al-Hariri and Al-Barzani

ديسمبر 6, 2017

Written by Nasser Kandil,

It is not possible to imagine the abilitحرب صالح كانت للحريري والبرزانيy of the easy recognition and the smooth adaptation to the variables, as the defeat of the war of the five seas which the allies of the war have received it after they waged it against Syria, being confident of its winning as a full global war that was waged carefully by encouragement and intimation against Russia in order to alienate and to neutralize it. and waged carefully against Iran in order not to get involved in a war and to propose the policy of disassociation to it through the nuclear understanding that is free from the regional support, moreover through tightening the control on Syria and Hezbollah through Saudi- Turkish-Israeli blockade under American and European supervision and multi-intelligence war, in addition to bringing a quarter of billion of Al-Qaeda fighters and the other factions to spread the chaos of death, killing, and destruction throughout Syria, reviving deadly fanaticism among the segments of its people, and presenting the example of the Kurds in order to fragment it, if it was impossible to have control over it.

Those who lost the World War II did not absorb such a shock, so some of them got mad, and some of them tried to commit suicide, while some of them have succeeded in committing suicide. Those who planned for the World War II and waged it put in their accounts the affirmative comprehensive victory, but when they put the accounts of losses, their accounts remained in a partial scheme, they did not imagine that the ends of the war would be their end and the declaration of their overwhelming defeat. Those who persevere in reading what has happened in the region surrounded by the five seas the Mediterranean, the Gulf, the Red, the Black, and the Caspian Seas cannot deny  that there is a project for which hundreds of billions of dollars were spent is falling. Russia as a rising global country is occupying today at least a status that was occupied by America individually since the fall of Berlin Wall three decades ago. While the new Syria which is emerging from the womb of this war does not resemble what has been drawn for it, it transcended what it was before its targeting in its intentions and forces towards Saudi Arabia and Israel at least. Hezbollah which they wanted to crush in this war and to ignite it with the fire of strife which they betted on it in order to compensate their loss in the previous wars is emerging out of this war more powerful and more dangerous than it was, it was enough for this war to get rid of it as a threat.

The countries which are able to be balanced with the results of a war as what we have witnessed during seven years, are those who have the options of adaptation due to their size and what is presented to them by the alliance of winners and the size of the risks which were the outcomes of the developments of the war on their strategic security, as Turkey which found clear offers to replace its investment on a war with the investment on settlements, it faced a challenge entitled the Kurdish secession which would have threatened its unity if it has not rushed to adapt and to move to the other bank, as Europe which knows that it was one of the war-makers but it did not find any calls or opportunities to adapt, along with the threat of the displaced people which changed its priorities and imposed its presence on its internal political scene with the rise of the racial extremism, and has imposed its presence on its security scene through the change of the threat of terrorism into daily fact that cannot be postponed and the awareness that extinguishing the fire starts from extinguishing the fire of wars which it contributed in its igniting to overthrow Syria.

America which is capable to adapt with the offers through its size and its open options is unable to do so, but only in the cases where the fait accompli becomes contrary to its wishes, and that it has to wage a comprehensive war which it sought always to avoid. While accomplishing the understandings Washington remained unable to interpret them or to restrict to them because it is in a state of schism between the facts of war and the equations of the political mind on one hand, and the priority which it grants to each of Saudi Arabia and Israel on the other hand. No one needs to analyze in order to see the differences between the positions of the U.S Department of State as an expression of the considerations of the American mind and the positions of the US President and his son-in-law Jared Kouchner as an expression of restricting the financial interests with Saudi Arabia and the electoral and ideological interests with Israel.

The state of the Israeli panic is clear in every position and behavior. The political and the strategic imbalance is clearly reflected by the contradiction of the statements of the Minister of War Avigdor Lieberman, when he said once that the Iranians have become on our borders and this is an existential danger, then after days he said there is no serious Iranian presence on our borders with Syria. Practically, the most proof of the threat of war against Hezbollah was expressed by the Head of the occupation government Benjamin Netanyahu, and then the correction came after hours that the intention was what Israel can do if Hezbollah takes the initiative to go to war. The Israeli confusion is the result of the difficulty to adapt with the catastrophic consequences of a war where Israel was the first to seek, and it is no longer possible to abolish its consequences. Israel cannot resist the consequences of a war versus the growing capacities of its enemies, the expansion of their alliances, and their possession of more resolution to fight it. It is enough what the Secretary-General of Hezbollah said about hundreds of thousands of fighters from Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Yemen who are ready to fight Israel in any future war, and what was said by the Israelis themselves about the image of Hezbollah after the war as the image of the Syrian army supported by Iran and their rooted relationship with Russia, this has been noticed by the leaders of Israel in their meetings with the Russian leaders.

The state of Saudi Arabia seems the most difficult not due to the weakness of the opportunities for joining the option of adaptation, but due to the size of the dominated arrogance on the Saudi minds, which comes from an aristocrat Bedouin. It is a new surrealistic bilateral of the Political Sociology that has arose with kingdoms and emirates of oil, coil oil, and gas that were transferred to the decision-makers to wage wars through parasitic forces that resemble the new rich who do not have the traditions of the poor classes, and have not learned the traditions of the rich classes, so they became close to gangs who hire killers of mercenaries. They think that their money is able to buy everything, they did not get from the hypocrisy of the international politics but the pretention of accepting what they demand as long as they pay generously, to find themselves suddenly as gamblers who lose and lose and continue gambling with what is left, knowing that there are who encourage them to hire their loss, so they behave crazily, they fire their winning cards in extremism, as they did with the Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri, they continue playing in order to turn him through their foolishness from a friend into an enemy. It is enough what is broadcasted by their channel “Al Arabiya” as an accusation of losing the blood of his father to indicate to  that supernatural  stupidity.

Who can drive Saudi Arabia and Israel to the bank of rationality in order to prevent the dangers of adventures as was witnessed by the kidnapping of the Lebanese Prime Minister can return the balance to the American position. Today, this is the European equation after the success of forming a security network for the stability of Lebanon, to prevent the flow of the displaced people and the dormant cells to Europe. This experience is worth the repetition, and the test seems Yemeni as long as the Yemeni missiles do what the Kurds did to Turkey.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,


 حرب صالح كانت للحريري والبرزاني

ناصر قنديل

حرب صالح كانت للحريري والبرزاني

– خلال ثلاثة شهور أحرق السعوديون والأميركيون ومَن معهم ثلاث أوراق كلّف إنتاجها، وكلفت رعايتها مالاً وزمناً ومعارك، فقد دفع السعوديون مسعود البرزاني بتشجيع أميركي لاستعمال قدرته على المشاغبة والإرباك بوجه محور المقاومة ولو علموا سلفاً أنه سيُهزم، لكنّهم راهنوا أنه سيشتري لهم وقتاً لأشهر إنْ لم يكن لسنوات.

– مضى البرزاني في الخطة، ولما اكتشف أنه سيقاتل وحدَه فضّل تجنّب الخراب على جماعته والدمار لبلده وارتضى الهزيمة بلا تكاليف، وسقطت الحلقة الأولى من الرهان الذي جمع محمد بن سلمان ومحمد بن زايد وجاريد كوشنر.

– التجأ الثلاثي إلى انتحاري آخر يرمون به في النار، فوقع الاختيار على رئيس الحكومة اللبنانية سعد الحريري، ولما تهيّب المشهد ومترتبات إعلان الحرب على حزب الله خطفوه وكتبوا له البيان وأجبروه على القراءة، فحدث ما لم يكن في الحسبان بوقفة الثلاثي رئيس الجمهورية اللبنانية ميشال عون ورئيس مجلس النواب نبيه بري والأمين العام لحزب الله السيد حسن نصرالله، وفقاً لمعادلة أعيدوا الحريري وبعدها ننظر في الاستقالة.

– قلب الأوروبيّون خطة الثلاثي عندما بلغتهم التقارير الأمنية التي تقول إنّ سقوط الحكومة في لبنان واهتزاز الاستقرار فيه سيعنيان تدفق النازحين إلى سواحل أوروبا وعواصمها، وأنّ دماء الأوروبيين ستكون وقوداً للخلايا الإرهابية النائمة المردوعة في لبنان إذا تسللت إلى أوروبا، فنجحت مساعي استنقاذ الحريري من الخطف، واستنقاذ لبنان من الحرب الانتحارية.

– لم يبقَ في الميدان إلا حديدان، توجّه الثلاثي نحو اليمن، ودرسوا ملفّ الرئيس السابق علي عبدالله صالح، وحدود مطالبه للانخراط في حربهم، واضح منذ انضمامه للوقوف مع أنصار الله، رفع العقوبات الأميركية والخليجية عن أمواله وأبنائه، وضمان موقع مستقلّ له عن منصور هادي في التسوية المقبلة، وتولى الشيخ محمد بن زايد هندسة التفاهم، وأعدّ صالح جماعته للتحرّش بحثاً عن ذريعة لتفجير الحرب وإعلان الانقلاب.

– كشف الثلاثي كوشنر وبن سلمان وبن زايد دورهم في الانقلاب بإعلان التأييد، وكشف صالح جماعاته، ولم ينتبهوا جميعاً أنّ قوة صالح التي كانت في الماضي تغيّرت معالمها، ولا حسبوا معنى أن يكون الناس والقبائل والعسكر مع صالح زعيماً لمقاومة العدوان وأن يبقوا مع صالح كاختراق للعدوان، فثلاث سنوات كانت كافية ليتفاعل قادة العشائر والقوات المسلحة التي كانت تُحتَسب لصالح مع الوضع الجديد وعنوانه مواجهة العدوان السعودي، وتاريخ علاقة أنصار الله مع صالح كانت سبباً كافياً ليتحسّبوا للحظة الانقلاب، والثلاثية التي ظهرت مراراً في صنعاء بين الجيش واللجان والشعب ليست كرتونية ولا خداعاً بصرياً، وهي تُخرج الملايين إلى الساحات والطيران السعودي يقصف العاصمة.

– استوعب أنصار الله الصدمة، وتفاعلوا مع حدودها، وخاطبوا بلغة العقل المعنيين كلهم، بمن فيهم صالح لوأد الفتنة، ولما اكتملت عناصر الحسم باشروا خطة التنظيف، وما يجري عسكرياً وسياسياً، بات واضح النهايات، والوساطات لإخلاء صالح صحيحة، والصاروخ اليمني نحو أبو ظبي صحيح أيضاً، والسيطرة على أغلب أحياء صنعاء وتطهيرها من جماعات صالح صحيحة أيضاً وأيضاً.

– تولّى صالح مهمة الحرب الانتحارية التي انسحب منها البرزاني جزئياً، فنجا إقليمه من الخراب، ونجا خَلَفُه من العزل، وتمّ تحديد الخسائر بالممكن بعد الغلطة الأولى، وهي الحرب التي انسحب الحريري منها كلياً، فكسب الكثير ونجا بلده وتولّدت بدلاً من الفتنة وحدة وطنية. وها هو صالح يقول للبرزاني وللحريري ولجمهوريهما ولأهل البلدين، ما الذي كان ينتظر الجميع، وماذا كانت تتضمّن المكرمات السعودية من خراب؟

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