زخمٌ جديدٌ في «طريق الحرير» الصينية: مواجهة لـ«الحمائية» الأميركية

Image result for ‫منتدى الحزام والطريق‬‎

الأخبار

 الثلاثاء 30 نيسان 2019

انتهت أعمال قمة «منتدى الحزام والطريق»، التي عُقدت في بكين بحضور أكثر من 37 من رؤساء دول وحكومات ووفود، مسجّلة صفقات يزيد إجمالي قيمتها على 64 مليار دولار أميركي

اختتم الرئيس الصيني شي جين بينغ، قبل يومين، قمة «منتدى الحزام والطريق»، بحضور قادة من 37 دولة ومنظمة دولية، من بينهم الرئيس الروسي فلاديمير بوتين. القمة، وهي الثانية للمنتدى، شكّلت مرحلة جديدة في مسيرة مبادرة «حزامٌ واحد وطريقٌ واحد» التي أطلقتها بكين قبل ستة أعوام، وتهدف إلى إعادة إحياء طريق الحرير التاريخي، الذي كان يربط الصين بعشرات الدول تجارياً.

شي أعلن في نهاية القمة التي احتضنتها بكين لمدة ثلاثة أيّام، التوصل إلى توافقات واسعة بشأن تدعيم «التعاون العالي الجودة» في إطار المبادرة، مع سعيٍ لطمأنة المتشككين في أن مشروع البنية التحتية الهائل سيركز على «تنمية مفتوحة ونظيفة وصديقة للبيئة» مع الأطراف المختلفة، التي تُجري «مشاورات على قدم المساواة»، مؤكداً أن مزيداً من الدول ستنضم إلى هذا المشروع لإنشاء بنى تحتية تربط بين آسيا وأوروبا وأفريقيا. وفي مؤتمر صحافي، أكد الرئيس الصيني أن مبادئ السوق ستطبق في جميع مشاريع التعاون التي تتضمنها المبادرة التي تهدف إلى إحياء «طريق الحرير» القديم الذي كان يربط بين الصين وآسيا وأوروبا، مشيراً إلى أن الشركات هي المحرك الأساسي لكل مشاريع المبادرة التي ستطبق عليها كل مبادئ السوق، فيما تلعب الدول دوراً داعماً.

أكّد شي أن المبادرة ستواصل رفض «الحمائية» في انتقاد لواشنطن التي تتبع سياسة حمائية (أ ف ب )

وفي تصريحات خلال الجلسة الختامية للقمة، قال شي إن «المزيد من الأصدقاء والشركاء سينضمون إلى المبادرة»، موضحاً أن «الجميع دعم فكرة تطوير شراكة، واتفقوا على تعزيز آليات التعاون». ووُقّعت اتفاقيات تعاون بقيمة تزيد على 64 مليار دولار أميركي في مؤتمر للمديرين التنفيذيين خلال المنتدى. كذلك، أشار البيان الختامي المشترك إلى أن الزعماء اتفقوا على أن يحترم تمويل المشاريع الأهداف العالمية المتعلقة بالديون، وعلى الترويج للنمو الاقتصادي الصديق للبيئة». من جهتها، أعلنت الصين، في بيانٍ منفصل، أنها وقّعت مذكّرة تفاهم مع دول عديدة، من بينها إيطاليا وبيرو وباربادوس ولوكسمبورغ وجاميكا.

أمّا على صعيد مهاجمة الولايات المتحدة المبادرة الصينية، واتهامها بإيقاع الدول النامية في ديون بعرض تمويل رخيص لا يمكنها تحمّله، فقد حاول شي في خطابه تبديد هذه المخاوف. وقال: «هذا العام، يرسل المنتدى رسالة واضحة: المزيد من الأصدقاء والشركاء سينضمون إلى دائرة الحزام والطريق»، مؤكداً أن المبادرة ستواصل رفض «الحمائية»، في انتقاد لواشنطن التي تبنّت سياسات حمائية في عهد الرئيس دونالد ترامب.

والمبادرة التي تم اقتراحها عام 2013، امتدت من آسيا وأوروبا إلى أفريقيا والأميركيتين وأوقيانوسيا، لتفتح مساحة جديدة للاقتصاد العالمي بنتائج أفضل من المتوقع. ووقّع أكثر من 150 دولة ومنظمة دولية على وثائق تعاون مع الصين في إطار المبادرة. واللافت أنه خلال السنوات الخمس الماضية، تجاوز حجم التجارة بين الصين والدول الأخرى المشاركة في المبادرة 6 تريليونات دولار أميركي، فيما تجاوزت استثمارات الصين في الدول المشاركة في المبادرة 90 مليار دولار. كذلك، حظيت المبادرة بدعم قوي من قبل القادة ورجال الأعمال الأجانب. وقد تمظهر ذلك في الكلمات الافتتاحية للرؤساء.

تم توقيع اتفاقيات تعاون في القمة بقيمة تزيد على 64 مليار دولار أميركي

من جانبه، دعا بوتين الدول المشاركة في المنتدى للانضمام إلى مشروعي الطريق البحري الشمالي و«طريق الحرير». وفي كلمته، أوضح الرئيس الروسي أن بلاده تولي اهتماماً كبيراً لتطوير الطريق البحري الشمالي، مضيفاً: «نحن نفكر في إمكانية ربطه بطريق الحرير الصيني، وبالتالي إقامة طريق نقل عالمي وتنافسي، يربط شمال شرق، وشرق وجنوب شرق آسيا بأوروبا». وأكد بوتين أن هذا المشروع الضخم يعني قيام تعاون وثيق بين دول أورآسيا لزيادة حركة الترانزيت وبناء محطات استقبال البضائع والحاويات في الموانئ، وكذلك المراكز اللوجيستية.

يُذكر أن الطريق البحري الشمالي هو وجهة نقل تمتد من المحيط الأطلسي إلى المحيط الهادئ على طول سواحل شمالي روسيا في الدائرة القطبية الشمالية. ويعبر هذا الطريق بحور الشمال بمحاذاة سيبيريا إلى الشرق الأقصى الروسي على الحدود مع اليابان وكوريا، وصار متاحاً أمام حركة الملاحة البحرية مع ذوبان الجليد في القطب الشمالي.

Related Videos

Graphic Designers to Support Palestinian Right of Return

Mon Apr 29, 2019 5:16

Graphic Designers to Support Palestinian Right of Return

TEHRAN (FNA)– Graphic designers from around the world will take part at the first “Return of the Century” international graphic workshop in Iran to support the cause of the Palestinian people’s right to return to their own land.

Secretary of the International Union of Unified Ummah (IUUU) Alireza Komeili said on Monday morning that the first iteration of the international poster workshop is slated to kick off in Iran’s Eastern city of Mashhad this week.

“The workshop seeks to promote an artistic confrontation to Americans’ insolence in backing Israel and floating the dangerous idea of the ‘deal of the century’,” Komeili said.

The event will be held in a bid to raise awareness about the Israeli occupation of Palestine and US President Donald Trump’s so-called “deal of the century” which is designed to do away with the Palestinian people’s right to return to their own land.

According to Komeili, the three-day event will focus on the three main issues of the “deal of the century”, Arab countries’ normalization of ties with Israel and America’s recognition of Jerusalem al-Quds as Israel’s so-called capital.

The workshop will be attended by graphic designers from 12 countries, including 30 artists from Iran.

Komeili said 40 posters will be selected at the end of the event to be showcased by pro-Palestinian groups around the world on the Nakba Day (the Day of Catastrophe) as well as the International Quds Day.

On Sunday, A senior leader of the Hamas resistance movement stated that Palestinians will never agree to Trump’s controversial proposal for peace between the Israelis and Palestinians, dubbed “the deal of the century”.

Addressing a national meeting of the leaders of Palestinian political factions in Gaza City on Saturday, Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the Hamas political bureau, stressed that Hamas would make use of all its potential and capabilities to confront the American scheme, calling for unity among Palestinian parties in the face of the plot, presstv reported.

“We are able to achieve national unity and run our Palestinian homeland without much effort if there is great will and genuine intention. Our nation is utterly determined to protect the Palestinian cause. It is steadfast to deal with the deal of the century, no matter what the challenges or sacrifices could be,” Haniyeh pointed out.

He added, “The Palestinian nation will remain in the occupied territories and confront arrogance until we achieve freedom and independence.”

Haniyeh further warned that Washington was determined to liquidate the Palestinian cause through the so-called deal of the century.

He pointed out that the US attempted to completely destroy the Palestinian cause through rejection of Palestinian refugees’ right of return, abolition of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights, giving green light to Israel’s official annexation of settlements in the occupied West Bank, and fomenting political rift between the Palestinian factions based in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

Haniyeh underlined that the political agenda of all Israeli parties was based on this ideology: “No to the return of Palestinian refugees, no to the establishment of a Palestinian state and no to al-Quds as the capital of Palestine.”

The senior Palestinian official then said Hamas was ready to enter talks with other Palestinian factions to form a national unity government.

Haniyeh reiterated that Palestinian land belonged only to Palestinians and that they would not give an inch of it to the occupying regime of Israel.

The Hamas official also called on all Palestinians across the world to stand against Washington’s so-called deal of the century.

Haniyeh finally urged all Arab leaders to stop normalization of diplomatic ties with Israel.

Trump’s so-called “peace plan” has been dismissed by Palestinian authorities ahead of its unveiling at the end of the holy fasting month of Ramadan and the formation of the new Israeli cabinet, most likely in June.

Speaking in the occupied West Bank city of Ramallah in mid-April, Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh lashed out at Trump’s initiative, asserting that it was “born dead.”

Shtayyeh noted that negotiations with the US were useless in the wake of the country’s relocation of its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem al-Quds, which Palestinians consider the capital city of their future state.

Related News

Forward/Backward ?

April 30, 2019  /  Gilad Atzmon

forward backward.jpg

Introduction by GA: Forward’s Editor Jane Eisner is frustrated. She believes that the US and its Constitution have betrayed the Jews. In the following article Eve Mykytyn suggests that Mrs. Eisner doesn’t grasp the constitution and is pretty removed from the American ethos.

By Eve Mykytyn

Jane Eisner wrote an editorial in The Forward on Sunday entitled, “Spare Me your Thoughts and Prayers. The US Has Betrayed Its Jews.”  Her thesis is that by abiding by a “perverted, outdated, self-serving view” of the constitution, the government  has failed in its “oblig[ation] to ensure that citizens have the freedom to live lives of dignity, equality and security.”

Specifically she blames the Second Amendment right to bear arms which she claims “was not meant to turn America into a killing field,” and the freedom of speech clause of the First Amendment which she opines, “was not meant to allow a few powerful, private corporations to ignore their civic responsibilities to prevent incitement and promote social harmony.”

Ms Eisner dismissively allows that “scholars” have noted that the Constitution was drafted to define rights as “negative rights.” She bemoans the lack of emphasis on “positive rights,” that would make it the duty of the “government to ensure that citizens have the freedom to live lives of dignity, equality and security.”

Perhaps Ms Eisner has failed to read the Constitution which sets forth the various powers of the federal government and then in its amendments makes clear its intent that the government interfere with its citizens to the least extent possible. The Ninth and Tenth Amendments specifically grant nonenumerated rights and powers to the States or the people. Importantly, even the 14th Amendment which has expanded certain rights of citizens is phrased in the negative. “No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens… ; nor …deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person … the equal protection of the laws.”

Nowhere is there a positive obligation placed on the government to ensure that its citizens “live lives of dignity, equality and security.” Instead the constitution prescribes equality under the law and protection from government interference.  Understanding this makes axiomatic the right to own a gun or to allow speech that Ms Eisner does not like.

Yet, Eisner claims the federal government has totally failed in its “central” job to “protect its people.” From what constitutional or other law does Eisner derive this “central job?” Would a government attempt to prevent attacks on what Eisner calls “vulnerable minorities (her list – Jews, African Americans or Muslims or gays and lesbians or random children in a school.) by eliminating guns and free speech deprive all of us of liberties?

The United States has existed for 240 years with our constitution and its particular blend of rights and obligations. Ms Eisner apparently seeks to add additional restrictions in order to ensure the safety of the Jews. This is a dangerous route. The framers (of the Constitution and its Amendments) were wise enough to understand that positive obligations placed on the government must be balanced by the burdens they place on individual freedom. If we were to enact some version of Eisner’s ‘dignity and security’ we would be inviting the government to control more aspects of our lives.

Neither private citizens nor corporations are obliged to let everyone speak nor to police other’s speech. And fortunately, there is no exception to free speech that requires media to “prevent incitement and promote social harmony” even if one could somehow determine precisely what speech that would prohibit. Ms Eisner has it exactly wrong, free speech is most meaningful in allowing political criticism which indeed may not promote social harmony. See.

While some may plan nefarious deeds on Facebook, information can and is published in other ways. The shooter in Poway, John Ernest, posted his manifesto on pastebin. It is also possible that by allowing the type of speech that Ms Eisner does not like, anger may be defused. Christopher Poole, creator of 4chan, said he was often thanked for providing an outlet to vent frustrations.

Ms Eisner charges that “America has failed its Jews.” Her solution is to  change the constitution and limit freedom in ways that are foreign both to the intent and to the various interpretations of the constitution. Nor is it at all clear that suppressing speech and prohibiting guns (especially given the number of guns already owned) would end terrorist shootings.

Yosef Berger, the rabbi of King David’s Tomb on Mount Zion, said that “[the shooting] is clearly Hashem telling the Jews to come home, to return to Jerusalem because “the sanctity of Israel can protect the Jews.” Perhaps Rabbi Berger could explain why God does not protect the Jews wherever they are.

Source: https://www.evemykytyn.com/-

My battle for truth and freedom involves some expensive legal services. I hope that you will consider committing to a monthly donation in whatever amount you can give. Regular contributions will enable me to avoid being pushed against a wall and to stay on top of the endless harassment by Zionist operators attempting to silence me.

ISIL’s Baghdadi Refers to Syria Defeat in First Video in Five Years

AlManar

April 30, 2019

ISIL Leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi

The ISIL Takfiri group’s elusive supremo Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi made his first purported appearance in five years in a propaganda video released Monday, acknowledging ISIL’s defeat in the Syrian town of Baghouz while threatening “revenge” attacks.

The world’s most wanted man was last seen in Mosul in 2014, announcing the birth of ISIL’s “caliphate” across swathes of Iraq and Syria, and appears to have outlived the proto-state.

In the video released by ISIL’s Al-Furqan media arm, the man said to be Baghdadi referred to the months-long fight for ISIL’s final redoubt Baghouz, which ended in March.

“The battle for Baghouz is over,” he said, sitting cross-legged on a cushion and addressing three men whose faces have been blurred.

He referred to a string of ISIL defeats, including its onetime Iraqi capital Mosul and Sirte in Libya, but insisted the Takfiri terrorists had not “surrendered” territory.

“God ordered us to wage ‘jihad.’ He did not order us to win,” he said.

In a segment in which the man is not on camera, his voice described the April 21 Easter attacks in Sri Lanka, which killed 253 people and wounded nearly 500, as “vengeance for their brothers in Baghouz.”

The man insisted ISIL’s operations against the West were part of a “long battle,” and that the Takfiri group would continue to “take revenge” for members who had been killed.

“There will be more to come after this battle,” he said.

On Monday ISIL terrorists claimed their first attack in Bangladesh in more than two years, saying they had “detonated an explosive device” on a group of police in Dhaka, wounding three officers, the SITE Intelligence Group reported.

Source: AFP

US Army Terrorists, Allied Militants Killed in Several Blasts in Raqqa

Tue Apr 30, 2019 2:13
US Army Terrorists, Allied Militants Killed in Several Blasts in Raqqa
US Army Terrorists, Allied Militants Killed in Several Blasts in Raqqa

TEHRAN (FNA)– A least two US Army terrorists and 20 Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have been killed in recent blasts and attacks on their military positions in the city of Raqqa.

The US Army terrorists were killed in a series of blasts in Raqqa City, including a bomb blast hitting a US Army military vehicle, the Arabic-language al-Mayadeen TV network reported.

The report also noted that 16 SDF fighters were killed in attacks and explosions against their military positions and patrols in Fonoun school, Shahid Bassel Street, areas near al-Baladi stadium, al-Qattar Street and near Electricity Company in Raqqa City.

The recent blasts and attacks have sparked tensions in the region.

In a relevant development earlier this monht, sources said the US Army deployed ISIL commanders and terrorists in the security bodies of the Syrian Democratic Forces in Raqqa paving the way for fleeing of a large number of militants from SDF prisons after paying large amount of cash, sources said.

The London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) quoted informed sources as saying that former ISIL commanders and terrorists who had still been in Raqqa before the SDF gained control of the region are now in charge of different security responsibilities, including traffic police and similar responsibilities in the town of Ain Issa in Western Raqqa.

It said militants were asking for bribes and taxes from vehicles, which had enraged citizens.

Related News

US Commission: Saudi Arabia Is Top Violator of Religious Freedom

By Staff, MEE

The US State Department designated Saudi Arabia as one of the world’s “worst violators” of religious freedoms, even as Riyadh remains one of Washington’s top allies in the region.

The US Commission on International Religious Freedom [USCIRF] released its 2019 report on Monday listing Saudi Arabia in the tier one category of countries that implement severe violations of religious freedom.

The annual report, released by the bipartisan organization created two decades ago, highlights the discrimination that Shia Muslims and Christians face in the country.

“Shia Muslims in Saudi Arabia continue to face discrimination in education, employment, and the judiciary, and lack access to senior positions in the government and military,” the 234-page report said.

“As a matter of law, the Saudi government bans the public practice of non-Muslim faiths by citizens and expatriates alike. While the Saudi government has stated repeatedly that non-Muslims who are not converts from Islam may practice their religion in private, this policy has not been codified,” the reported added.

Last week, Saudi Arabia executed 37 people on ‘terrorism’ charges.

Thirty-two of those executed were from Saudi Arabia’s Shia minority and a number of them were juveniles when they were arrested, including a teenager who had planned to study in the US.

The US placed Saudi Arabia as one of the world’s top “countries of particular concern” or CPCs in November 2018.

However, Johnnie Moore, USCIRF’s commissioner who wrote the profile on Saudi Arabia, said promoting “punitive measures” against the kingdom would be counterproductive.

“Such punitive measures could likely have the effect of forcing the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to engage directly and more seriously with countries where religious freedom is not a consideration at all in their foreign policy priorities,” he said.

The State Department recommends granting Saudi Arabia a special waiver because the country is an “important interest to the United States”, the report said.

Saudi Arabia and the US share a deep alliance. The US purchases Saudi oil while the kingdom has ordered billions of dollars of arms from the United States.

Saudi Arabia was the first overseas country visited by US President Donald Trump after he became president in 2017, and his visit to Riyadh came just weeks before Saudi Arabia, the UAE and their allies initiated a blockade of Qatar.

Trump has continued to stress the importance of the US alliance with Saudi Arabia even after the death of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, which prompted near global condemnation.

The electoral fuss is not a sign of strength … Israel is weaker than the cobweb الضجيج الانتخابي ليس قوة… «إسرائيل» أوهن من بيت العنكبوت

 The electoral fuss is not a sign of strength … Israel is weaker than the cobweb

أبريل 29, 2019

Written by Nasser Kandil,

When the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is satisfied with the explanations of the Egyptian mediator about the circumstances which led to Palestinian missiles on Tel Aviv because he fears going to war on the eve of the elections after it was an ideal electoral chance, and when neither the American gifts nor the Russian ones benefit in granting Netanyahu the secure decisive winning swaying between one vote and another against a new-born party formed by retired generals who did not present any new political vision, but they manipulate with the words of the Likud, and when Netanyahu begs the voters to go to the polls two hours before they are closed because the voters are not interested seriously in the elections and the participation is less than before then that is enough to know that the electoral fuss is not a sign of strength,,, and that Israel is weaker than a cobweb.

The strength of Israel exists only in the Arab rhetoric that wants to justify defeat, normalization, and what is demanded by America to serve the weak Israel. What cannot be taken by America and Israel from the Palestinians, the Arabs are demanded to snatch. The talk of the Arab rulers, elites, and Palestinian or Lebanese political leaders about the danger of the “deal of the century”, the danger of the announcement of Jerusalem as a capital of Israel, and the American recognition of the annexation of Golan to Israel reflects their fear of the their rhetoric which fell and their position which is swaying, simply because they built their policies on the hypothesis of a settlement with the occupation entity and they see it dispersing in front of their eyes. They see that the US desperate policy from finding a Palestinian partner who signs for the security of Israel paves the way for the equation of the conflict of existence rather than the conflict of borders on which the Arab official and partisan theories based half a century ago. This means; the recognition of those who adopt from the beginning the theory of the conflict of existence.

What is going on is a unification of the territories occupied since 1967 and the territories occupied since 1948, therefore it is a curse on the occupation and on those who built their discourse on separating the fate of theses occupied territories; because territories of 1967 became Arab, while territories of 1948 became Israeli. So those who cry for the new American recognition do not deny that they were willing to barter an American recognition of the Arab descent of the 1967 territories with Arab recognition of the Israeli decent of the 1948 territories. This is the essence of the Arab peace initiative. But if Israel was able to bear its cost it would do so, and won and embarrassed the resistance forces and their allies.

The most important result of the Israeli elections is the boycotting of more than four-fifths of the Arab voters because the fall of the settlement project has reunited the people of the occupied territories in 1948 with the people of the occupied territories in 1967 and has ended the bets on the lie of the Israeli democracy after the declaration of a Jewish state. Therefore the Palestinians responded by ending the bet on the lie of the western democracy on the remembrance of the fall of Baghdad by the US invasion.

It is no longer important who will form the government of the occupation; since it is a government of vacancy, loss, and Diaspora. Netanyahu who wants to form the government and who is the most prominent candidate for such a task has to prepare himself to face the hour of truth. But how can the government of the cobweb withstand?

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

الضجيج الانتخابي ليس قوة… «إسرائيل» أوهن من بيت العنكبوت

أبريل 10, 2019

ناصر قنديل

– عندما يكتفي رئيس حكومة الاحتلال بنيامين نتنياهو بتوضيحات الوسيط المصري عن ظروف الطقس التي أدت لانطلاق صواريخ فلسطينية على تل أبيب لأنه يخشى الذهاب إلى الحرب عشية الانتخابات، بعدما كان الذهاب للحرب وصفة انتخابية نموذجية، وعندما لا تنفع الهدايا الأميركية والروسية في منح نتنياهو الفوز الآمن والواثق فيتأرجح على صوت زائد أو ناقص، مع حزب ولد قبل شهور قليلة شكّله جنرالات متقاعدون، لم يقدموا أي رؤية سياسية جديدة، وتلاعبوا بالكلمات بخطاب الليكود ذاته. وعندما يتوسل نتنياهو للناخبين للذهاب إلى صناديق الاقتراع قبل ساعتين من إقفالها، لأن الناخبين لا يكترثون جدياً والمشاركة أقل من اي انتخابات سابقة، فهذا كافٍ للتحقق من أن الضجيج الانتخابي ليس قوة، وأن «إسرائيل» فعلاً أوهن من بيت العنكبوت.

– قوة «إسرائيل» موجودة فقط في خطاب فريق عربي، يريد التهويل بهذه القوة لتبرير الانهزام والتطبيع وتمرير ما يطلبه الأميركي، خدمة لـ«إسرائيل» الضعيفة من كيس العرب، فما تعجز أميركا و«إسرائيل» عن انتزاعه من الفلسطينيين، يُراد أن يتولى العرب انتزاعه، وحديث حكام عرب أو نخب عربية أو قادة سياسيون عرب فلسطينيون ولبنانيون، عن خطر صفقة القرن، وخطر ما بعد إعلان القدس عاصمة لكيان الاحتلال، وما بعد الاعتراف الأميركي بضم «إسرائيل» للجولان السوري المحتل، هو خوفهم هم على خطابهم الذي سقط وموقعهم الذي يهتزّ، لأنهم قاموا وبنوا سياساتهم، وتشكّل خطابهم على فرضية وجود مشروع تسوية مع كيان الاحتلال، وهم يرونه يتبدّد، ويرون السياسة الأميركية اليائسة من إيجاد شريك فلسطيني يوقع على دفتر شروط أمن «إسرائيل»، إخلاء للساحة لمعادلة صراع الوجود بدلاً من صراع الحدود الذي قامت عليه النظريات العربية الرسمية والحزبية لنصف قرن مضى. وهذا يعني التسليم بانتقال الراية إلى الذين قامت معادلاتهم من الأصل على عقيدة صراع الوجود لا صراع الحدود مع كيان الاحتلال.

– لا صفقة قرن ولا توطين، ولا ضياع للجولان والقدس، فكل ما يجري هو توحيد لمصائر الأراضي المحتلة عام 1967 بالأراضي المحتلة عام 1948، وهذه نعمة لا نقمة. وهي نقمة على الاحتلال وعلى الذين بنوا خطابهم على فصل المصائر بين المناطق المحتلة، فكانت المعادلة، أراضي العام 67 عربية وأراضي العام 48 إسرائيلية، والمتباكون على الاعترافات الأميركية الجديدة، لا ينكرون أنهم كانوا مستعدين لمقايضة اعتراف أميركي بعروبة أراضي الـ67 باعتراف عربي بإسرائيلية أراضي الـ48. وهذا هو جوهر المبادرة العربية للسلام، ولو كان ممكناً لـ«إسرائيل» تحمل كلفتها لفعلتها، وكسبت الفوز بأكبر عملية خلط أوراق في المنطقة، وقادت أكبر إحراج لقوى المقاومة وحلفائها.

– أهم نتيجة تقولها الانتخابات الإسرائيلية هي مقاطعة أكثر من أربعة أخماس الناخبين العرب لأن سقوط فكر ومشروع التسوية أعاد الشعور لأبناء المناطق المحتلة العام 1948 بوحدة المصير مع أبناء المناطق المحتلة العام 1967، ودفن الرهانات على كذبة الديمقراطية الإسرائيلية بعد إعلانها دولة يهودية، وللذين يعرفون عمق الرموز التي يكتبها التاريخ بمغزى خاص، يرد الفلسطينيون بإسقاط كذبة الديمقراطية الغربية، في ذكرى سقوط بغداد أمام الغزو الأميركي.

– لم يعُد مهماً مَن يشكل حكومة الاحتلال، فهي حكومة الفراغ والضياع والشتات وقد فرغت الأرانب من أكمام دونالد ترامب، وبات على نتنياهو الراغب بتشكيل الحكومة والمرشح الأبرز للمهمة أن يستعدّ لمواجهة ساعة الحقيقة، كيف ستواجه حكومة بيت العنكبوت أعشاش الدبابير التي تحيطها من كل حدب وصوب؟

Washington puts the region in front of all possibilities including the war واشنطن تفتح المنطقة على كلّ الاحتمالات بما فيها الحرب

Washington puts the region in front of all possibilities including the war

أبريل 29, 2019

Written by Nasser Kandil,

It is certain that Washington does not want to go to war and it is unable to wage it, but at the same time it cannot prevent its occurrence due to its policies, as it is certain that Israel does not want to go to war and it is unable to wage it too, but for sure the Israeli inability to go to war is as the Israeli inability to bear the cost of a viable settlement. In fact, the political movement about the Palestinian cause has many hypotheses due to the uncertainty of the international borders of Palestine, but the conflict between Israel and Syria is well-known, steady, and documented. America is the main partner in sponsoring the political ceiling that prevents the occurrence of war according to the equation of the American recognition that Golan is a Syrian right that can be restored by negotiation versus preventing the occurrence of war. But when Washington decides for any reason to withdraw from this equation by saying decisively that Golan is no longer Syrian and that negotiation is no longer a way to discuss its future which became in favor of Israel, then the war becomes one of the open hypotheses even if this was not a present option for any of the involved parties in the decision of war in the region.

The wrong considerations often lead to war and the absence of a political ceiling for managing a conflict and setting controls may turn small events and clashes into platforms for wars. If the settlements of mutual consent became impossible with the inability of Washington of making any separate settlement form the security of Israel versus the impossibility of the resistance’s involvement in any settlement that ensures such security then the settlements of ignoring that include implicit barters between the parties of the conflict are conditional on the good estimation of the acceptable barters. For example, the nuclear understanding with Iran fell when Washington supposed that this would prevent Iran from supporting the military resolving in Syria against the armed groups. And the project of the assumptive settlement of ignoring will fall if the Americans think that they give the disputing parties what they want. They will leave Syria without ensuring the withdrawal of Iran and Hezbollah from it and without getting a Syrian guarantee of the security of Israel; and they give Israel the ownership of the Golan. Therefore, the assumptive barter may turn due to miscalculation into a war fuse.

Since the beginning of the new century, Washington has been engaged in linking wars in the region, it is aware that it wages the wars of its leadership of the world, but it failed in stabilizing the balances it has sought, as it is aware that the resulting balances of these wars were contrary to its expectations and caused more concern than before. So as a result, potential forces have emerged and became part of the present equations as the presence of Russia, the rising status of Iran, and the emergence of the resistance forces, so it is no longer possible to turn back the clock or to make compromises that devote balances, because Washington cannot make any compromise at the expense of Israel and Israel cannot make any compromises as these current changes, and no one in the resistance axis can legitimize the occupation of Palestine through compromises.

The region is full of wealth and under the pressure of imposing compromises, there are many major conflicts, furthermore, the surplus power cannot be interpreted in politics, but it can be expressed in the battlefields. So war becomes a hypothesis and perhaps an option and maybe a fate.

Some say that today is like the eve of the war of 1973.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

مارس 28, 2019

ناصر قنديل

– الأكيد أنّ واشنطن لا تريد الحرب ولا تقدر عليها، لكن الأكيد أنها لا تستطيع منع حدوثها كنتيجة لسياساتها، والأكيد أنّ «إسرائيل» لا تريد الحرب ولا تقدر عليها، لكن الأكيد أنّ العجز «الإسرائيلي» عن الحرب لا يوازيه إلا العجز «الإسرائيلي» عن تحمّل كلفة تسوية قابلة للحياة، كذلك فإنّ الأكيد انّ الحركة السياسية حول القضية الفلسطينية تحتمل الكثير من الفرضيات نظراً لعدم وضوح الحدود الدولية للكيان الفلسطيني، لكن الصراع بين «إسرائيل» وسورية بمرجعياتها معلوم وثابت وموثق وتشكل أميركا الشريك الرئيسي في رعاية السقف السياسي المانع لوقوع الحرب، وفقاً لمعادلة الإعتراف الأميركي بأنّ الجولان حق سوري تتمّ استعادته بالتفاوض مقابل عدم ذهاب سورية إلى الحرب، وعندما تقرّر واشنطن لأيّ سبب كان الخروج من هذه المعادلة بقول قاطع بأنّ الجولان لم يعد سورياً وأنّ التفاوض لم يعد طريقاً سالكاً لبحث مستقبله الذي حسمته واشنطن لحساب «إسرائيل»، فإنّ الحرب تصير إحدى الاحتمالات المفتوحة، والمطروحة، حتى لو لم تكن خياراً حاضراً لأيّ من الفرقاء المعنيين بقرار الحرب في المنطقة.

– الحسابات الخاطئة تقود في أحيان كثيرة إلى الحرب، وغياب السقف السياسي لإدارة الصراع ورسم الضوابط لمنع انفلاته، هو الآخر قد يكون السياق الذي تتحوّل فيه أحداث وتصادمات صغيرة إلى منصات للإنزلاق نحو الحرب، وإذا كانت التسويات بالتراضي باتت مستحيلة مع عجز واشنطن عن إقامة أيّ تسوية منفصلة عن ضمان أمن «إسرائيل»، مقابل استحالة تورّط محور المقاومة بأيّ تسوية تحقق هذا الإطمئنان لأمن «إسرائيل»، فإنّ تسويات التغاضي بما هي الإقدام على خطوات تفترض إجراء مقايضات ضمنية بين أطراف النزاع، فهي تبقى مشروطة بحسن التقدير لمعادلات المقايضات المقبولة، فعلى سبيل المثال سقط التفاهم النووي مع إيران عندما افترضت واشنطن أنه سيكون ثمناً كافياً لتوقف إيران دعمها للحسم العسكري في سورية لصالح الدولة بوجه الجماعات المسلحة، وكذلك سيسقط مشروع التسوية بالتغاضي الافتراضي إذا كان الأميركيون يعتقدون أنهم يوزعون على طرفي الصراع ما يحتاجونه، فيتركون سورية بلا ضمان انسحاب إيران وحزب الله منها، وبلا الحصول على ضمان من سورية لأمن «إسرائيل»، ويتركون لـ «إسرائيل» صكّ ملكية الجولان، والمقايضة الإفتراضية هنا قد تتحوّل بسبب سوء الحسابات إلى صاعق تفجير للحرب.

– خاضت واشنطن منذ مطلع القرن الجديد حروباً متصلة في المنطقة وهي تدرك أنها تخوض حروب زعامتها للعالم، وفشلت في تثبيت التوازنات التي سعت إليها، وهي تدرك أنّ التوازنات الناجمة عن هذه الحروب جاءت عكس ما أرادت واشنطن، وجلبت ما يتسبّب بالقلق أكثر من الحال التي كانت قبل هذه الحروب، وخرجت بالنتيجة إلى الميدان قوى كامنة صارت جزءاً من معادلات الحاضر، كحضور روسيا، وتنامي موقع إيران، وصعود قوى المقاومة، وما عاد ممكناً إعادة عقارب الساعة إلى الوراء، ولا بالإمكان أيضاً إنتاج تسويات تكرّس التوازنات، لأن ليس في واشنطن من يقدر على تسويات على حساب أمن «إسرائيل»، ولا في قيادة «إسرائيل» من يقدر على تسويات بحجم التحوّلات الجارية، ولا في محور المقاومة من يستطيع السير بتسويات تشرعن احتلال فلسطين.

– المنطقة حبلى بالثروات، وتحت ضغط انحباس كبير في فرص التسويات، والصراعات الكبرى تدق أبوابها، وفائض القوة الذي تملكه أطراف النزاع غير قابل للصرف في السياسة، وسيجد طريقه إلى ميادين الإشتباك، فتصير الحرب فرضية وربما خياراً، وربما قدراً.

– يقول البعض ما أشبه اليوم بعشية حرب العام 1973.

Related Videos

Related Articles

طهران في مواجهة القرصان

أبريل 30, 2019

د. عدنان منصور

منذ وصوله إلى الرئاسة الأميركية، لم يتوقف هيجان الرئيس ترامب عن اتخاذ قراراته التعسفية ضد دول وحركات وشخصيات وطنية، ترفض الهيمنة الأميركية وإملاءاتها بكل أشكالها، وتحرص على سيادتها واستقلالية قرارها ونهجها الحر. فمن روسيا وإيران والصين وكوريا الشمالية مروراً بسورية وفنزويلا وكوبا ونيكاراغوا، وصولاً إلى حركات المقاومة ومناضليها في فلسطين ولبنان والعراق واليمن، يصرّ «الكاوبوي الأميركي» على تطويق الدول والحركات، ومعاقبة المقاومين للهيمنة والاحتلال، لأنهم يشكلون له ولعلمائه تحدياً مباشراً، يحبطون سياساته المتهورة، التي أفقدت الولايات المتحدة صدقيتها ونزاهتها، لعدم التزامها بالاتفاقيات الموقّعة من جانبها، وبالقوانين الدولية، وعدم الاكتراث بالأحكام وبميثاق الأمم المتحدة وهي تتعاطى مع دول العالم. إجراءات وقرارات وعقوبات وحصار يصبّ في كل الاتجاهات، يتخذها ترامب بكل عنجهية واستبداد، ضد هذه الدول، ظناً منه، أنه يستطيع لوي ذراعها، وحملها بالقوة على الإذعان لإرادته وسياساته. وما إيران إلا واحدة من هذه الدول، التي تجد نفسها، منذ قيام ثورتها عام 1979، أمام مواجهة شرسة ومتواصلة مع الجبروت الأميركي، الذي لم يتوقف يوماً، عن محاولاته في زعزعة النظام الإيراني، والانقضاض على الثورة، وإطاحتها. والتي تشكل له ولحلفائه في المنطقة، تحدياً متواصلاً، وخصماً عنيداً وشرساً، وهو يتصدى لمشاريعه ومؤامراته، ويعمل على إفشال خططه الرامية إلى احتواء المنطقة كلها، وجعلها داخل دائرة نفوذه، يحقق له المزيد من الهيمنة عليها، واستغلاله بشكل كامل لثرواتها وخيراتها، دون أي معارضة أو مقاومة، وهو الذي تعوّد أن يتعاطى مع نماذج من «حكام» في المنطقة والعالم، يأمرهم ويطيعون، يحاسبهم ويدفعون، يحميهم وينوخون، ويذلهم وهم قانعون.

هي حال إيران الثورة اليوم، وهي في مواجهة القرصان الأميركي الذي يستعد يوم 2 أيار المقبل، لفرض المزيد من العقوبات الأميركية الظالمة الأحادية الجانب عليها، التي لم تتوقف منذ أربعين عاماً، وتأتي بعد انسحاب الولايات المتحدة من الاتفاق النووي، غير مكترثة بالمجتمع الدولي ولا بالدول الموقّعة عليه، ولا بقرار مجلس الأمن ذات الصلة القاضي برفع العقوبات عن إيران. انسحاب يعرّي أخلاق سياسة ترامب، ويكشف زيف صدقيتها ونزاهتها، ومدى احترامها للمبادئ والقيم التي رفعتها الثورة الأميركية.

بعد ان تقدمت إيران بشكوى ضد الولايات المتحدة أمام محكمة العدل الدولية في 16 تموز 2018، احتجاجاً على إعادة فرض عقوبات اقتصادية ومالية عليها، وذلك بعد خروجها، أصدرت المحكمة الدولية حكمها في 3 تشرين الأول 2018، ألزمت بموجبه الولايات المتحدة، برفع العقوبات التي تطال السلع «ذات الغايات الإنسانية» عن إيران، على أن لا تؤثر هذه العقوبات على المساعدات الإنسانية، وسلامة الطيران المدني الإيراني. ورغم ذلك لم تكترث واشنطن بقرار المحكمة الدولية، بل ذهبت بعيداً لكي تفرض عقوبات أكثر شدة في 5 تشرين الأول 2018، تشمل صادرات النفط، والشحن، والمعادن، وكل القطاعات الأساسية في الاقتصاد الإيراني.. عقوبات رأى فيها ترامب، أنها الأشد على الإطلاق. وأن الولايات المتحدة سوف تستهدف بحزم أي شركة أو كيان يتحايل على العقوبات.

واشنطن تريد من دول العالم تحت التهديد، وقف العمل مع طهران، والالتزام الكامل بالعقوبات الأميركية الأحادية الجانب المفروضة عليها، وذلك من أجل تحقيق أهداف عدة:

1 – وقف تدفق النفط الإيراني إلى دول العالم، وتصفير صادراته إليها مما سبّب حتى الآن، في انسحاب أكثر من 100 شركة عالمية ضخمة من إيران، ووضع 700 كيان وفرد على اللائحة السوداء.

2 – قطع أنظمة السويفت جمعية الاتصالات المالية العالمية بين البنوك تعاملها مع البنوك الإيرانية، لعزل إيران عن النظام المالي الدولي.

3 – خنق الاقتصاد الإيراني دولياً، من خلال التهديد الأميركي بفرض العقوبات على كل جهة تخرق العقوبات الأميركية، ولا تتقيّد بها نصاً وروحاً.

4 – الضغط على الداخل الإيراني، لحمل الشعب على التحرك والانتفاضة ضد النظام، وتحميله المسؤولية، وتحريضه على العصيان، وإيجاد الشرخ بين النظام والشعب الإيراني، وحضّه على الثورة وتغيير النظام.

5 – تدهور العملة الإيرانية وتراجع قوتها الشرائية وارتفاع معدل التضخم.

6 – التأثير السلبي للعقوبات على الوضع الاقتصادي والاجتماعي والمعيشي، والارتفاع العشوائي لأسعار السلع الاستراتيجية.

7 – تدهور الاقتصاد الإيراني وإعاقة التطور للبلاد، والحد من النمو للإنتاج القومي، وارتفاع البطالة، وضمور خطط التنمية الخمسية.

وللعودة عن هذه العقوبات، تشترط واشنطن على إيران أن تستجيب لاثني عشر مطلباً أبرزها:

أ – وقف تخصيب اليورانيوم وإغلاق المفاعل العامل على الماء الثقيل. وهذا يعني عملياً وقف البرنامج النووي السلمي الإيراني بالكامل.

ب – منح مفتشي الوكالة الدولية للطاقة الذرية، حق الوصول إلى كل المواقع العسكرية في البلاد. والغاية الأميركية من ذلك، كشف المواقع العسكرية الإيرانية كلها للعدو وللعالم، وبالتالي تعريض الأمن القومي الإيراني للخطر.

ج – وقف نشر الصواريخ البالستية والتطوير اللاحق للصواريخ القادرة على حمل الأسلحة النووية. بهذا تريد الولايات المتحدة حرمان إيران من أي قوة ردع صاروخية مهمتها الدفاع عن أرضها وحماية أجوائها.

د – تنسحب كامل القوات التي تخضع للقيادة الإيرانية من سورية. والهدف هو تجريد سورية من دعم حلفائها وتركها فريسة لواشنطن وقوى الإرهاب المدعومة من الخارج، التي تعمل على إطاحة النظام والإتيان بنظام عميل يتماشى مع سياسات واشنطن وحلفائها في المنطقة.

هـ – فك ارتباط إيران مع دول الجوار، لا سيما العراق الذي يشكل لها بوابة رئيسة تطل منه على المنطقة، نظراً لما يشكله هذا الارتباط من تعزيز العلاقات الثنائية المشتركة للبلدين، وحضورهما الفاعل على الساحة المشرقية.

و – التوقف عن تقديم الدعم «للمنظمات الإرهابية». وهو وصف تطلقه واشنطن والعدو الإسرائيلي على حركات المقاومة في فلسطين ولبنان والعراق واليمن وغيرها، حتى تتمكّن من القضاء عليها، وبسط نفوذها، واستئثارها بالمنطقة ومن ثم إدخالها في صفقة العصر.

ز – وقف دعم المقاومة، أي «الإرهاب» – بمفهوم واشنطن – من قِبَل فيلق القدس التابع للحرس الثوري الإيراني.

مطالب واشنطن التعجيزيّة، يريد منها ترامب تحجيم وتقزيم الدور الإيراني وشلّ قدراته، والنيل من سيادة إيران، وقرارها المستقل، والالتفاف على الثورة وجعلها أسداً من دون أنياب، أمام هجمة أميركية شرسة لن تتوقف ضدها، تهدف أولاً وأخيراً إلى تصفية حساب واشنطن مع النظام والثورة، وإطاحتها بكل الوسائل، لإعادة إيران من جديد، إلى بيت الطاعة الأميركي، بكل ما يحويه هذا البيت من تسلط وهيمنة وابتزاز، واستبداد وتوحش واستغلال.

بعد أربعين عاماً من الثورة، وما رافقها من سياسات أميركية وصهيونية – عربية وقحة تجاه طهران، ورغم مروحة العقوبات الواسعة والظالمة المفروضة عليها، التي آذت دون شك إيران وشعبها، وأعاقت طموح الإيرانيين في تنمية البلاد وتحقيق إنجازات أكبر من الإنجازات الكثيرة الباهرة التي حققوها على الصعد كافة، فإن هذه العقوبات لم تستطع أن تلوي ذراع الثورة الإيرانية وقيادتها، ولا أن تحبط من عزيمة الإيرانيين وعنفوانهم وإصرارهم، بل أعطت إيران زخماً وحافزاً قوياً للاعتماد على الذات، ونقل إيران إلى مواقع متقدمة على الصعيد العلمي والصناعي والعسكري والبحثي والتكنولوجي والاستراتيجي.

تصفير صادرات النفط الإيرانية لن ينجح وسيُمنى بالفشل. فإيران لديها الوسائل العديدة، والخبرة الكافية لإفشال العقوبات في هذا المجال، كسبتها على مدى عقود وهي تتعامل مع سياسات الولايات المتحدة المستبدة حيالها، وحيال شعبها وثورتها.

مشكلة الرئيس ترامب تكمن في أنه لا يعرف بعد، مدى صلابة الشعب الإيراني، ولم يختبر عن قرب معدنه وعقيدته. شعب خبِر جيداً سلوك الولايات المتحدة، وما سببت له من ويلات، عانى منها الأمرّين على مدى عقود، جراء سياساتها المستبدة، ودعمها المتواصل لقوى الشر والإرهاب التي فتكت بدول المنطقة، وحمايتها لطغاة العالم، من أجل الحفاظ على مصالحها واستغلالها لثروات الشعوب المستضعفة ونهب خيراتها.

لم يدرك ترامب بعد، أن الشعب الإيراني الملتف حول قيادته، وحول جيشه وحرسه الثوري، والمتمسك بحقه وكرامته دون هوادة، قادر على أن يتحمل المزيد من العقوبات الشرسة وإحباطها دون التفريط بمبادئه وحقوقه وعقيدته وانتمائه ومواقفه الثابتة، في الدفاع عن وطنه وقيمه، ومواجهة قوى الاستبداد السياسي، والإرهاب الاقتصادي، بكل أشكالهما مهما كلّف ذلك من ثمن.

أمام العقوبات المنتظرة، ليس من خيار لإيران إلا الصمود. فهذا قدرها… صمود وإن طال الزمن، فسينتصر في نهاية الأمر، لأنه يعبّر بكل قوة، عن إرادة شعب في الحياة الحرّة الكريمة، ويعبّر أيضاً عن ثورة ارتضاها لنفسه، يحصّنها ويحميها، وإن تربّص بها طغاة العالم، يرعاهم ويقودهم قرصان هائج.

وزير خارجية سابق.

The South and Gaza were liberated due to the growing resistance …but time is not over بفعل الممانعة نَمَت المقاومة وتحرّر الجنوب وغزة… والزمن طويل

أبريل 29, 2019

Written by Nasser Kandil,

Long decades ago, the occupation was the strongest, it was said what was refused by the leaders who stick to the Arab rights especially the right of the Palestinians has become a dream after awhile, and the resolution of the division of Palestine which was not accepted by the Arabs has become an unattainable dream later. It is known that Israel does not accept such resolution and no one in the United Nations initiated to put an agenda to implement the resolution of division no 181 as the resolution dedicated to the return of the displaced no 194. And what would have issued due to the Arab acceptance is similar to what was issued by the Arab acceptance of the resolutions 242 and 338; the survival of the occupation and the rash towards peace.  While Israel is Judaizing the land and devouring more geography, it strengthens itself in preparation for a war to come and to occupy new territories. The Arab acceptance of those resolutions does not prevent the occupation of Beirut and the South of Lebanon.

After the American announcement of the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and the annexation of Golan to Israel, there were who said similarly that if the Palestinians have accepted what was offered by Bill Clinton and Ehud Barak in 2000 as half or quarter of the Eastern Jerusalem, they would not have lost all Jerusalem today, and if Syria has accepted Golan without Tiberius, it would not have lost all Golan. Those do not forget to say the contradiction; While they are pretending that they highly appreciate the leading capacity of the late Palestinian President Yasser Arafat and the Late Syrian President Hafez Al-Assad, they refuse to admit that the rejection was made by them. Then they say that if they have known that before , they would not done so.

Let us discuss that, when the President Yasser Arafat accepted Oslo Accords, did the Israeli implement it? What was the result in areas A, B,and C, and when Syria accepted the Agreement of disengagement in 1974 as a temporary starting point for the withdrawal from Golan under American guarantee, did that happen/? when Lebanon accepted the resolution 425 and was seeking to implement it, did anyone respond?  And when Washington signed the nuclear understanding with Iran, did it hesitate to withdraw from it? Therefore, will the American signing on the agreement on Golan prevent the withdrawal from it, since the American signing on the agreement of disengagement which is based on the recognition that Golan is Syrian did not prevent it from the recognition of the annexation of Golan to Israel. Therefore, the only constant is not what was not accepted by the Arabs to avoid the worse or a search for a peaceful solution or what is signed by the American or the Israeli, rather it is the balance of forces.

Jerusalem and Golan are under the occupation since 1967, and the talk about the annexation is a political interpretation of the occupation not an expression of the change in the balances of forces, it is an interpretation of the inability to got the Syrian-Palestinian recognition of the legitimacy of the occupation of Palestine as an inevitable cost of any understanding proposed by Washington and Tel Aviv. So those who forgot that the Syrian rejection of bargain in the time of the late President Hafez Al-Assad has led to balances of forces which contributed in the rise of the resistance forces which liberated the South of Lebanon and Gaza without negotiation and without the recognition of the legitimacy of occupation have to be reminded that the objection that prevented the incomplete return of Golan as Sinaa has fortified the resistance and ensured the complete return of the South of Lebanon and Gaza, and because time is not over, the resistance which led to these two successive liberations will soon liberate Golan and what is far from Golan and Gaza…Jerusalem as well,,, let days witness that.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

بفعل الممانعة نَمَت المقاومة وتحرّر الجنوب وغزة… والزمن طويل

مارس 30, 2019

ناصر قنديل

– خلال عقود طويلة كانت يد الاحتلال فيها هي القوية وصاحبة القضاء والقدر، كان يقال لنا إن ما رفضه القادة المتمسّكون بالحقوق العربية وأولها الحق بفلسطين كل فلسطين صار حلماً بعد حين، وإن قرار تقسيم فلسطين الذي لم يقبله العرب، صار حلماً بعيد المنال لاحقاً. وللعلم والتذكير فإن «إسرائيل» لم تقبل القرار، ولم يبادر أحد في الأمم المتحدة لوضع روزنامة لتطبيق قرار التقسيم الذي يحمل الرقم 181 مثله مثل القرار الخاص بعودة اللاجئين الذي يحمل الرقم 194، وكل ما كان سينشأ عن القبول العربي هو شبيه بما نشأ عن قبول العرب المشابه بقرارات مثل الـ242 و338، وهو بالتحديد بقاء الاحتلال واللهاث وراء سراب اسمه السلام، فيما إسرائيل تهوّد الأرض وتلتهم المزيد من الجغرافيا وتزيد منسوب القوة استعداداً لحرب قادمة واحتلال أرض جديدة، فاحتلال بيروت وجنوب لبنان لم يمنع وقوعهما القبول العربي بمشاريع الحلول التي سبقت.

– مع الإعلان الأميركي عن الاعتراف بالقدس عاصمة لـ»إسرائيل» وبضمّ «إسرائيل» للجولان صعدت أصوات تتحدّث بلغة مشابهة تقول، لو قبل الفلسطينيون بما عرضه عليهم بيل كلينتون وإيهودا باراك عام 2000، وفيه نصف القدس الشرقية أو ربعها، لما كانوا كما هم اليوم يخسرون كل القدس، ولو قبلت سورية بما عُرض عليها من الجولان بلا أمتار طبريا، لما وصلت الأمور إلى خسارة كل الجولان، وطبعاً لا ينسى المتحدثون أن يقولوا النقيضين، فهم يحاولون الإيحاء أنهم يقدّرون عالياً القدرة القيادية للرئيس الفلسطيني الراحل ياسر عرفات والرئيس السوري الراحل حافظ الأسد، وينسون أن الرفض تمّ على يديهما، ثم يستدركون بأنهما لو عرفا أن رفضهما سيجلب هذه النتائج لما فعلا.

– حسناً. سنأخذ الكلام بقدر حجم عقول أصحابه ونسير بالأمر كما يقدّمونه، فنسأل عندما قبل الرئيس ياسر عرفات باتفاقية أوسلو، هل نفّذها الإسرائيلي؟ وماذا كانت الحصيلة في المناطق أ وب و ج؟ وهل ما يحكم التنفيذ لأي اتفاقية هو شيء آخر غير موازين القوى التي تولد فيها؟ وعندما قبلت سورية باتفاقية فك الاشتباك عام 1974 كنقطة انطلاق مؤقتة للانسحاب من الجولان بضمانة أميركية هل حدث ذلك وتمّ الانسحاب؟ وعندما قبل لبنان بالقرار 425 وبقي يلاحق العالم لتطبيقه هل سمع له أحد؟ وعندما وقعت واشنطن على التفاهم النووي مع إيران، هل منعها ذلك من الانسحاب منها من طرف واحد؟ وهل سيمنع التوقيع الأميركي على اتفاق حول الجولان من الانسحاب منه لاحقاً، كما لم يمنع التوقيع الأميركي على اتفاق فك الاشتباك القائم على أن الاعتراف بأن الجولان سوري الهوية من إعلان معاكس بالاعتراف بضم الجولان لـ»إسرائيل»؟ فالثابت الوحيد لم يكن يوماً بما يقبل العرب، تفادياً للأسوأ، أو سعياً لحل سلمي، أو ما يوقع عليه الأميركي أو يوقع عليه الإسرائيلي، الثابت الوحيد هو ميزان القوى، وميزان القوى فقط.

– القدس والجولان تحت الاحتلال أصلاً منذ العام 1967، والحديث عن الضمّ هو ترجمة سياسية للاحتلال وليس تعبيراً عن تبدّل في موازين القوى، بل الأصح هو ترجمة للعجز عن الحصول على الاعتراف السوري والفلسطيني بشرعية احتلال فلسطين، كثمن حتمي لأي تفاهم تعرضه واشنطن وتل أبيب، والذين ثقبت ذاكرتهم ونسوا أن الرفض السوري للمساومة في زمن الرئيس الراحل حافظ الأسد، أنتج موازين القوى التي ساهمت بتصاعد قوة المقاومة التي حرّرت جنوب لبنان وغزة دون تفاوض ودون منح الشرعية لاحتلال باقي الأرض العربية، لا بدّ من تذكيرهم بأن الممانعة التي حالت دون العودة المنقوصة للجولان على طريقة عودة سيناء، هي التي حضنت المقاومة فضمنت عودة غير منقوصة لجنوب لبنان وغزة، ولأن الزمن بيننا وبين أميركا طويل، فالسياق الذي بدأ مع الممانعة وتطوّر مع المقاومة وأنتج تحريرين متلاحقين، سيكتمل بتحرير غير بعيد للجولان، وتحرير لاحق لما بعد الجولان وما بعد غزة، والقدس ليست بعيدة، والأيام بيننا.

Related Videos

Related Articles

Gen. Suleimani: Iran Won’t Give in to US Pressure

April 29, 2019

Source

Commander of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) elite Quds force, Major General Qassem Suleimani

IRGC Quds Force Commander Major General Qassem SUleimani said that the United States aims to draw Iran to the negotiation table with increased economic pressure, but the Iranian nation will not give in.

He made the remarks Monday on the second day of the nationwide conference of Iranian Police commanders and managers in Tehran, Mehr news agency reported.

“The enemy wants to draw us to the negotiating table by imposing economic pressure. This kind of negotiation is just as good as giving in, but our people are vigilant and smart and believe that negotiating with the enemy in the current situation is a clear act of surrendering. We certainly will not bow to this ignominy,” he said

“Today, the US and its allies resort to relying on illegitimate governments in the region,” he said, adding that Iran’s military has “reached maturity.”

“The more the enemies threaten Iran, the more costs they will have to pay,” Gen. Suleimani highlighted.

Source: Iranian media

Related News

This Happens In Saudi Arabia, but What Is Still Hidden Can Be Even Worse

Zeinab Daher

In an interview with religious cleric Sheikh Hassan Saleh, a resident of Awamia who has been outside his homeland since 2015, and currently lives in the Iranian city of Qom, home of the world’s largest center for Shia scholarship, al-Ahed News learned some information about how the families of detainees and martyrs are living, but we are quite sure that many brutal measures are still unlearned.

Following last week’s massacre during which the Saudi regime beheaded, executed and crucified a total of 37 men, falsely claiming that they practiced ‘acts of terror’ inside the kingdom, Sheikh Saleh told al-Ahed News some still unknown fact, hoping that they reach the world amid the total silence intended to take place inside the kingdom of terror.

Asked about the families of martyrs following the tragedy, Sheikh Saleh said they signed papers not to demand the bodies of their relatives.

“Any contact between them and any media outlet or on social media about their current situation, they will be punished by the authorities, their sons will be detained. They also have other sons on death row. For example, the Al Rabie family sacrificed two martyrs and still has another son behind bars who is also on death row. Such families fear for the other beloved ones as they were threatened. They were also banned from holding memorial ceremonies. Some people were detained because they participated in memorial ceremonies of previous martyrs.”

He further explained that it is very hard to learn the real situation via the Saudi media.

“There is oppression against Shia. When speaking of Shia, I don’t mean that they are being oppressed by the Sunnis. No! The tyranny is practiced by the Wahhabi ideology there. Some people thing that the Shia are oppressed by the Wahhabis, Sunnis are also oppressed there. The Wahhabi ideology had involved itself among the Sunnis.”

“The Wahhabi oppression against us was not practiced against any people in the world.”

Organ theft

“We’ve witnessed –at the time when the government was still handing people the bodies of their martyrs- many signs of autopsy on many bodies of the previous martyrs. Many of our martyrs, who fell on the ground, were hit with non-fatal shots. At the time, when the bodies were returned, we used to witness the signs of autopsy. Many physicians also indicated that the organs of those bodies had been removed.”

For those who were recently executed, bodies were not handed to their families. Any Shiite the government kills, it doesn’t hand his body. This is a proof on the body organs theft of those martyrs, the cleric said.

Relatively, many of the martyrs became disabled as a result of the torture; Said Skafi, Mujtaba Sweikat, Munir Adam… also Martyr Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, had disability before they beheaded him. The regime doesn’t need their ‘forced consent’ to remove their organs.

Torture until death

Martyr Said Skafi suffered from severe trembling as a result of torture on the first days of his arrest. He continued suffering from face hemiplegia for over a year. After starting to recover, Said then started suffering from hemorrhoids for which he repeatedly demanded treatment but was always denied. Consequently, Said’s both physical and psychological health deteriorated, he was later anesthetized for some three days inside the hospital of the General Investigations Prison in al-Dammam. He received the last visit on April 11, and had his last phone call with his family on April 16, a week ahead of his beheading, without learning anything that this would be his fate.

Burying the bodies

“The Saudi regime does bury the bodies in a special place designated for those it executes. Yet martyrs are not buried as per the rituals of the religion they belong to. They also don’t set any gravestone that indicates to whom this tomb belongs. They pretend that the body of any executed individual has not sanctity, what if it belongs to the Shia,” Sheikh Saleh said.

“As per the Wahhabi ideology, we are infidels! We don’t have sanctity when we are alive, then what about after we die. The matter is not only about those martyrs, we have around 100 martyrs whose bodies haven’t been handed yet. Some families have bodies of two of their sons not handed…the al-Faraj family for example sacrificed more than 4 martyrs.”

The farewell call

As every week, the martyrs called their families on the same day they were executed. They saluted their families without having any earlier notice that it is the last day of their lives. The families even didn’t believe as they learned the news from social media and news outlets. They thought they were rumors. They didn’t believe it at first.

Personal testimony

The Sheikh told us of his own story of suffering with the Saudi authorities

My brother was arrested only because he contacted me. As an opposition member, I am not allowed to talk to my brother.

Back to my brother, he was arrested because he contacted me in an issue the government wanted him to talk to me about. My house was among the many houses destroyed in the al-Mosawara neighborhood, and my father died when I was outside the country; so, as per law, I have to sign whether I allow them to destroy the house or not. I didn’t sign the papers to destroy mu house, I neither signed the papers to receive money in exchange of the house. My brother contacted me in this regard. He said he wanted an authorization from me so he can receive the money, but I didn’t accept. Later on, they detained him.

They also wanted to trap me. I have a disabled son who is studying at a specialized rehabilitation center in Jordan. My detained brother used to take care of my son as I couldn’t go there. So, after they detained my brother, they banned my family members from visiting my son there. Now, it’s been almost two years since I last contacted them. After that, my son’s school called me saying if I didn’t go there they will expel him after a week. I told them how comes you expel him and he is disabled? They said it is not of their business because the Saudi embassy doesn’t accept that anymore. I myself was delaying the issue until the Jamal Khashoggi case emerged to the surface and everyone was busy with it, then my son’s issue was neglected. Otherwise, they wanted me to go there for him so they can take me to Saudi Arabia or perhaps do the same as they did with Khashoggi.

My brother’s only crime was contacting me, they further threatened him that they will bring me and kill me in front of his sight. They also summoned my mother and threatened to detain her but said they won’t because she is old. My mother is 80-years old, she was summoned for interrogation just because I contacted her on the Eid al-Fitr of two years ago to greet her. After that, my family sent me through a friend a message not to contact them anymore.

In the spotlight

There are still many detainees who are suffering from disabilities and diseases as a result of the torture and being denied medical treatment. In addition, they are on death row making their life in grave danger so that they might be executed at any moment, not to mention that all of them were forced to sign on committing the crimes they are accused of. Some of them attempted to commit suicide due to the torture. Some of them see death better than being humiliated and tortured on a daily basis. Some of the martyrs had signed on committing crimes that happened while they were already behind bars! The regime claims that they have taken part in killing servicemen, however, there is no evidence that they had carried weapons over the course of their lives.

Martyr Ahmad al-Rabie was executed because he ‘covered up’ the place where his brother Hussein was. Many were arrested because of ‘covering up’ the whereabouts of their relatives.

For example, martyrs Abdullah al-Sreih, Hussein al-Rabie and Muntadher Subeiti were human rights activists. They had peaceful demands and organized peaceful protests. But the regime wants to deliver a message to the Shia before Sunnis that any movement is considered against the kingdom’s guardian and hence considered an ‘act of terror’.

When the family of Sheikh Mohammad al-Atiyah held a memorial ceremony for his martyrdom, the Saudi regime forces’ came up with armored vehicles, they stormed the area and banned them from continuing the event.

The Saudi regime’s hostages

In the same context of terrifying people, the Saudi regime took from every family of a martyr, detainee or a wanted a hostage member so that –fearing the fate of the other ones- the families won’t demand for the bodies of martyrs, and the detainees be forced to sign the papers that find them guilty despite not committing those crimes, and the wanted ones would surrender. Besides, the regime also bans the families of the detainees and the wanted from the essential living services.

This is a story of what we have learned, bringing it to the world to share it until everybody knows that there is a people in a forgotten land, who are suffering to survive with dignity.

And as late martyr Ayatollah Sheikh Nirm Baqir al-Nimr had once said, “Either we live on this land as free people, or be buried inside it as dignified,” the people of Qatif will still sacrifice.

This is our story to you, if you have learned any other one, humanely do not hesitate to share!

Shadow of Sarajevo 1914 Hangs Over Trump’s Golan Coup

Martin Sieff
April 26, 2019
Trump and Netanyahu still congratulate themselves on getting the United States to recognize Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights. They should not.

It looked like an absurd petty vanity in 1908 when the Austro-Hungarian Empire formally annexed the obscure Balkan provinces of Bosnia and Herzegovina: Six years later that move set off the greatest war in human history and destroyed the old empire forever.

The Israelis have just made the same mistake in getting the United States under President Donald Trump to recognize their annexation of the Golan Heights.

Israel took control of the Golan Heights on June 11, 1967 after a fiercely fought war over the territory with Syria. Israeli settlements in the northern Jordan Valley directly below the Golan had been repeatedly shelled during the previous two decades of fragile peace. The Israelis were therefore determined to keep control of the Golan area to prevent a future invasion by Syria and its allies into northern Israel. That nearly happened in the 1973 Yom Kippur War or War of Ramadan when hugely outnumbered Israeli screening forces were taken by surprise by the Syrians and only held them off in ferocious tank battles that are still closely studied today by war colleges all around the world.

That experience left the Israelis more determined than ever to hold on to the Golan territories and the Syrians more determined than ever to regain them.

Right wing nationalist Israeli Prime Minister Menahem Begin proved willing – eventually – to give up all of the Sinai Peninsula back to Egypt in the 1977-79 peace process with then-Egyptian President Anwar Sadat. But Begin proved implacable in his refusal to consider a similar bargain with President Hafez Assad, Syria’s leader for 30 years. In December 1981, Begin unilaterally annexed the Golan Heights.

Ironically, Yitzhak Rabin, Israel’s guiding strategic genius for three decades from his assumption of command as Army Chief of Staff in 1964 to his assassination while serving as prime minister in 1995, was prepared to consider returning the Golan to Syria before he was gunned down, shot in the back by Yigael Amir, a young Israeli religious-nationalist fanatic and student at Israel’s ultra-Orthodox religious center of higher education Bar-Ilan University.

For the previous two decades, Rabin, during his long terms as Israeli defense minister had actually come to a remarkable quiet understanding with Assad. Both men quietly respected each other and they both loathed and distrusted Palestine Liberation Organization Chairman Yasser Arafat. As a result, they proved highly effective in keeping the peace.

Clashes between Syrian and Israeli ground forces during Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in 1982 were carefully kept extremely limited in scope on both sides. And apart from that brief conflict, not a single Israeli or Syrian soldier was killed in action along their joint border during all the years Rabin and Assad senior held power.

As long as Rabin and Hafez Assad both lived there was a surprising amount of stability and peace between Tel Aviv and Damascus. That condition at first continued following the passing of both men. Assad died in office in 2000 and was succeeded by his son Bashir who still rules Syria now.

But today we see a very different situation. The US and Israeli obsession with toppling Bashir Assad and ending his close ties with Iran and Hezbollah led to the catastrophic Western support of extreme Islamists, ludicrously presented as democratic forces in the Arab Spring of 2011. The US government driven by then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and supported by the United Kingdom and France as well as Israel believed Assad could be quickly toppled – which indeed proved to be the fate of Libya’s veteran leader Muammar Qadafi.

But Bashir Assad proved to be made of sterner stuff. The half of Syria forced from his government’s control did not experience some golden age. Most of it fell into the merciless hands of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). The ancient Assyrian Christian and other minority communities of Syria who had been protected by the Assad governments were virtually annihilated in those terrible years. The Assad government fought back. Backed by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, it survived and has reestablished itself. The United States and its allies refuse to recognize these realities. Trump’s move to boost Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s standing by legally recognizing Israel’s annexation of the Golan plunges both countries further into dangerous delusion.

Saudis destabilizing Middle East, paying for US-Israeli crimes: Hezbollah official

Sun Apr 28, 2019 06:1

Sheikh Naim Qassim, the deputy secretary general of Lebanon’s Hezbollah resistance movement, speaks at a ceremony in the southern Lebanese town of Kfar Fila on April 28, 2019. (Photo via Twitter)

Sheikh Naim Qassim, the deputy secretary general of Lebanon’s Hezbollah resistance movement, speaks at a ceremony in the southern Lebanese town of Kfar Fila on April 28, 2019. (Photo via Twitter)

The deputy secretary general of Lebanon’s Hezbollah resistance movement has described Saudi Arabia as the root cause of instability in the Middle East, stating that the incumbent regime in Riyadh is sponsoring fiendish US and Israeli crimes in the region.

“Saudi officials are paying for American-Zionist crimes from the pockets of poor and impoverished people among other walks of society in the kingdom. Saudi rulers have turned the country into the kingdom of evil. Saudi money rests behind all crises and problems in the region, besides the agents that are on the American-Israeli side,” Arabic-language al-Ahed news website quoted Sheikh Naim Qassim as saying at a ceremony in the southern Lebanese town of Kfar Fila on Sunday evening.

Qassim added that the ruling Saudi family is a sheer example of an oppressive and dictatorial regime, which practices all kinds of pressure and injustice under American orders to legitimize Arabs’ normalization of diplomatic relations with the Israeli regime, the so-called deal of the century that deprives Palestinians of their motherland and their future, in addition to aggression and occupation.

“Saudi Arabia committed a massacre by executing a number of its citizens without a fair trial and through false confessions. The individuals were charged only because of expressing their views and speaking truth. This is only part of the crimes the Al Saud regime, which has also killed (Shia cleric) Sheikh Nimr Baqir al-Nimr and (renowned journalist) Jamal Khashoggi, and destroyed life in Yemen for more than four years without being penalized,” the senior Hezbollah official pointed out.

“The Al Saud is the one who destroyed Syria, introduced (the radical ideology of) Wahhabism, dispatched al-Qaeda, Nusra and their terrorist allies to Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and elsewhere in the Middle East region, and provoked sectarian strife. They are the ones who are sabotaging Libya, Sudan and Algeria. This regime is preventing stability in the region,” Qassim commented.

He highlighted that Riyadh has the least respect for the standards of human rights and grossly distorts Islamic teachings.

$0 in Iran oil sales? Anything to stop Muslim democracy… but they won’t stop it

April 27, 2019

by Ramin Mazaheri for The Saker Blog

If 7,000 Greeks can stop the Persian empire at the narrow pass at Thermopylae, I think it’s absurd to think Iran can’t stop 20-30% of global oil traffic at the 3 kilometer-wide shipping lane in the Strait of Hormuz. That would, of course provoke a global crisis and economic disaster.

That’s the “nuclear option” for Iran. It is reportedly part of a military plan called “Ghadir”, which evokes the alpha letter of modern Iranian Islamic history – Ghadir Khumm is the location where Prophet Mohammad anointed Imam Ali his successor, but (those who came to be called) Sunnis amazingly rejected the Prophet’s wishes. Shia – which means “partisans of Ali” – did not.

The US has severely overestimated their military capability to defend this attempt to politicise oil and get Iranian oil exports to zero. Mining the strait, mini-subs, kamikaze speedboats – all of these will be hugely effective against anything the US Navy has. For all the US drones and satellites and aircraft carriers, there is no way they can protect the Straits of Hormuz long-term, not any more than they could hold any of a thousand Afghan mountain passes long-term. Should we trust history or the sales pitches of corrupt Pentagon contractors?

No military can stop endless kamikazes. But who wants to be a kamikaze? What could produce the desire to be a kamikaze?

$0 in oil sales may do it.

There is undoubtedly a part of the Iranian psyche which now wants a final showdown. The years of talking, talking, talking about the JCPOA pact on Iran’s nuclear energy program… and then its failure, thanks to US unilateralism and spineless European hypocrisy, has created a lot of existential angst for Iranians. How can Iranian diplomacy work when the opponents refuse diplomacy and honor?

That is an existential and philosophical question, but there is also a lot of undeniable frustration since the inhumanly effective 2012 Triple Sanctions (US, UN, EU). Iranian society has been forced to become perceptibly more desperate, more coarse, less warm, less Iranian – it is difficult to admit this.

Iran cannot be forced into starvation indefinitely. That is why blocking the Strait of Hormuz – if it ever happens – will certainly be accompanied with an ultimatum: the West must end Iran’s isolation and finally accept the Iranian Islamic Revolution of 1979. The world must live with us, finally, because it cannot live without us in the 21st century.

Unfortunately, due to Islamophobia, even more so than 40 years of media-led Iranophobia, nobody in the West is going to burn a draft card for Iran. The opposition to the obviously immoral war on Iraq produced just a day of street protests in the US – hardly worth the effort. Neither is Iran in the position of the USSR, meaning it has no chance to save the West from racist fascists – after all, the West supports the racist fascists (Taliban in the 1980s, ISIL today, et al).

Because nobody in the West will put any pressure on the governments to stop the oppression of Iran, perhaps Iran has to force the issue by closing the Strait of Hormuz? Is Iran backed into a corner?

I say no, because Iran is not going to sell $0 in oil in month of May.

Firstly, should Iran be worried? Answer: no. The world needs Iranian oil (and revolutionary culture)

When is the last time the US policy worked out in the Middle East? Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen – all have had their growth retarded, but are not destroyed… just like Iran.

As Pepe Escobar pointed out, it’s much easier to retard the Colombian dream of Eurasian integration by attacking its weakest major point – Iran, as opposed to China and Russia.

The bottom line is: can the US do what it claims – reduce Iranian oil sales to $0. No, they cannot.

It certainly seems like the US is foolishly believing self-aggrandising and duplicitous claims from Gulf princes, who are overestimating their oil production abilities.

However, we must first remember that Saudi hatred for Iran is not based on religion – even though “Saudis are not Muslims – they are Wahhabis,” as the regional saying goes – it is based on politics: they hate Iran for proving that all monarchies are immoral, ineffective, undemocratic and a hindrance to the type of democracy Muslims want (Islamic socialist). Their animosity is based on Iran’s ability to make Muslims aware of their modern Islamic socialist rights, and to show how acquiring these rights does not – as the West insists – require the exclusion of their culture, history and religion. Iran, in the manner of all true revolutionaries, insists on constantly couching it in these drastic but honest terms, thus continually flouting their rebellion and their success in the face of the horrific Gulf monarchs.

But the Gulf monarchs, shockingly, are liars: They will NOT be able to give China and India enough replacement oil.

Saudi production peaked at 11 million bpd (barrels per day) last November, which was the system’s maximum stress level, but is now down below 10 million. Offsetting Iranian production – getting up to at least 12 million bpd – thus seems impossible: “A 2-million-bpd Saudi production increase would move the Kingdom’s oil production into unchartered territory and would wipe out completely the kingdom’s spare capacity,” according to Gary Ross, head of global oil analytics at S&P global, via Reuters.

Anyway, Saudi Arabia is not going to increase oil production in May despite the sanctions – they want higher prices to continue bankrupting shale oil / fracking. Because the Saudi state full of disorganised and egotistical princes, they are also full of conflicting agendas.

As far as the UAE, they produce only 3 million bpd, so they aren’t capable of tipping the output scales drastically.

Furthermore, OPEC is at its lowest production since 2015, and Venezuela and Libya show no signs of regaining former glories anytime soon. Even if slow increases from the Saudis and UAE arrive, there are other drains on oil inventories to offset even before cutting off Iran.

So why should Iran feel like we aren’t needed anymore?

Only an administration as filled with incompetents as the Trump administration is could take such lies and mixed signals seriously. But the US is about Israel first, corporations second and everyone else last, therefore any attempt to foment regional stability and higher oil prices makes their constituents happy. Of course, it also advances capitalism-imperialism.

Iran – still no retreat, no surrender… still no big deal

Even just moderately-intelligent Westerners know that “Iran sanctions aren’t a realistic path to peace”, because the sanctions are not designed for peace, but for fomenting internal civil war and to support regional US imperialism.

There is another way Iran could decisively end Western antagonism: simply accede to Western demands, as encapsulated by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s totally-absurd 12 demands. All Iran has to do is – just like the North Vietnamese, North Koreans, Cubans and Chinese – is renounce their revolution entirely, like Egypt, post-Sankara Burkina Faso and now, to a lesser extent, Julian Assange-betraying Ecuador.

I examined what steps Iran would have to actually take in order to get the Cold War called off in this article, Iran detente after Trump’s JCPOA pull out? We can wait 2 more years, or 6, or…., which caps my upcoming book on Iran.

Beyond Pompeo’s fatheaded nonsense, it all comes down solely to capitalist-imperialist logic: Iran must sell off a controlling chunk of the nation into Western hands. There is no way Iran will do that – there are just too many people who are too committed to upholding the 1979 Revolution, the Constitution and Iranian sovereignty.

It’s not as if Iran’s politicians are as out-of-touch, arrogant and stupid as a Persian Gulf prince: the current budget is based on only exporting just 1.5 billion barrels per day with a price of only $54 per barrel (or $83 million per day) because we all knew back in early 2016 that a Trump presidency would hit Iran, Cuba and Palestine the hardest. The price is already around $70. If we assume that things really progress badly, we must also assume the price of oil will rise – a price of $80 means Iran needs to sell just 1 million barrels per day ($80 million per day) to stay under budget. Last month, with some countries already instituting cutbacks, Iran sold 1 million barrels.

The reality is that it is all about China and India for Iran – they sell 3 times more oil to them than even Iran’s #3 customer. Reports are conflicting, negotiations are ongoing – we can’t truly say with 100% confidence what will happen in Beijing and New Delhi.

But… India is the more compliant nation, and they are reportedly going to reduce sales to 100,000 bpd using a rupee payment system. The links are going to remain open, and that is all that matters – the numbers will certainly be fudged. Long-term, Iran is quite happy to sell oil in non-dollar denominations and be the pioneer in that move away from the petrodollar.

Regarding China: Some reports say China will actually increase imports from Iran up to 1 million bpd, totally sabotaging the US. I would hold out absolute certainty until the US and China signs their trade deal next month. However, I highly doubt China is going to sabotage the key node – and the absolutely key energy node – in their Belt and Road Project. China might sell out Iran for a couple years, perhaps during the Trump administration, but long-term? No way. China is not an island, and Iran is the only country which has proven to be revolutionary enough for Red China to trust, which is why they have such serious multi-decade plans already signed. Hard to predict the future, but there’s always both short- and long-term considerations, and long-term China and Iran are united, firmly.

Beyond the two big customers, Turkey says they will flout sanctions, but Turkey also talks a much better game than they punch.

Regardless, Iran will still sell oil “illegally”. Iran, as Foreign Minister Javad Zarif recently joked, has a “PhD in that area” of sanctions-busting. Iran was the first modern nation to barter oil for something other than US dollars, and they will be the first nation (I predict) to successfully implement a national crypto-currency.

Iran will obviously send oil to places like Turkey (and India, as Iraq is a top-3 supplier for them) through friendly Iraq. Will Iran lose some profit as a result? Yes, but it’s not like Iranian oil is going to be sold for pennies on the dollar to Iraqis – we are talking minor losses of 10-20%, I’d guess. Over decades that’s significant, but if we are talking about enduring 2 or 6 years more of Trump, then it’s certainly not enough to bankrupt Iran, which is the goal of the illegal US tactic. Crucially, it is certainly fair to assume that now-higher oil costs will offset this new surcharge for sanctions-busting via Iraq.

Regarding bankruptcy: It’s hard to say exactly how much hard currency reserves Iran has, but the IMF said $100 billion in 2017. What reduced oil sales really means – again, $0 won’t happen – is a cutback in new projects.

What does that mean? It means cutting out future infrastructure projects, as well as savings into the National Development Fund. Just as Cuba prioritises their far, far fewer pesos for health, education and food, so will Iran – neither country will starve, neither country will relent… and Iran will still make billions selling oil, unlike Cuba. The years of worsened sanctions has meant things like: Iran have to postpone record breaking projects, like Niayesh Tunnel, the 2nd-largest urban tunnel in the world, finished in 2013, or the Sadr double-decker Expressway, also finished in 2013… but only for a few years. It has meant things like: Iran will get all the global infrastructure in place and start broadcasting PTV Français, and even tap yours truly as its Paris correspondant, but a lack of money means that all the journalism is done solely in Tehran for now. But someday I’ll be reporting in French, Inshallah.

Of course, sanctions do more than retard Iranian growth – the existential angst leads to unnecessary inflation, reluctance for private domestic investment in the “real economy”, and major cutbacks in quality of life for the average Iranian. But, as I’ll point out later – Iran is not Yemen, which is what the US mistakenly thinks they can achieve.

People on the left and the right in Iran actually welcome each new tough sanction with a Persian carpet rollout – it necessarily fuels the “Resistance Economy” championed by Leader Ali Khamenei and others. There is no doubt that a sanctioned people do not just throw up their arms and quit – domestic capacities, initiatives and genius must be honed and further created. In 1995 Iran produced almost no cars – by 2010 they were 14th in the world and the undisputed Middle East leader. These are the types of things I am talking about, but which are not possible without socialist-inspired central planning and central control over industries.

Iran also has recent experience instituting a true War Economy, with rations and coupons to enforce economic egalitarianism, and that is another counterpunch to the US. It also creates countless future economic and cultural benefits.

The Iranian government are not Yemeni rebels, who have no factories, no bureaucracy, no refineries – and thus they are starving, sadly. The Iranian government is the stable status quo, and the status quo always has a million levers to pull before things get hairy… but because they are socialist-inspired, Iran’s government has three million levers. As I have repeatedly demonstrated over the years, the Iranian government controls essentially 100% of the non-Black Market and non-carpet economy. So, far beyond oil, the government actually has the power to completely mobilise the economy in favor of the People, which is something that Eurozone nations no longer have.

The end for US unipolar dominance will arrive swiftly. Iran’s reversal of isolation will also be swift, just as – all of a sudden – the US made detente with China in 1971 after decades of the same sanctions and exclusion Iran deals with. But detente certainly cannot happen during Trump’s first term, given how the US Deep State has so effectively mobilised against him to neuter his once-diplomatic foreign policy plans.

There is no long-term game plan for ending the phobia of Islamic democracy – in 2019, only Iran’s continued determination and success is the answer. Giving up in order to sell oil “legally” is not an answer, nor necessary. Iran has domestic levers to pull for years, and the experience to pull the right ones.

Maybe someday Iran will finally strike back and play their “now the talk really starts” exterior lever – closing the Straits of Hormuz? Iran is all about “neither East nor West but the Iranian Republic”, but I still don’t think that will happen until China feels secure enough to give the signal that they back Iran to the hilt, and that won’t come until the Belt and Road Initiative is further along.

As far as “more sanctions” – certainly disagreeable, but never terminal for Iran.

Ramin Mazaheri is the chief correspondent in Paris for Press TV and has lived in France since 2009. He has been a daily newspaper reporter in the US, and has reported from Iran, Cuba, Egypt, Tunisia, South Korea and elsewhere. He is the author of I’ll Ruin Everything You Are: Ending Western Propaganda on Red China. His work has appeared in various journals, magazines and websites, as well as on radio and television. He can be reached on Facebook.

Hezbollah will Eventually Prevail over US Sanctions: Official

Source

April 28, 2019

Deputy Chief of Hezbollah Executive Council Sheikh Ali Daamoush

A high-ranking Hezbollah official says the United States has slapped economic sanctions against the Lebanese resistance movement due to its bitter defeats from the group, stressing that Hezbollah will finally emerge victorious over the punitive measures.

Speaking at a ceremony in the southern Lebanese city of Nabatieh, Vice President of the Executive Council of Hezbollah Sheikh Ali Damoush said Hezbollah will confront the US-led sanctions, and its enemies will definitely fail to achieve their goals.

“Hezbollah, which owes national and moral duties to defend and protect Lebanon against the aggression of the Zionist regime (of Israel), is also responsible for safeguarding the rights and interests of the Lebanese nation and helping prevent economic collapse in the country,” Damoush said.

He added, “The Lebanese resistance movement is targeted by financial sanctions, because it continues to thwart US-Israeli plots in the (Middle East) region. The US, Zionists and their allies have failed in military confrontations with Hezbollah, have fallen short in their psychological war to tarnish the group’s image, and gained not much from designating the Lebanese group a terrorist group.”

Damoush said the strategy of imposing sanctions will not succeed in the face of the strategy of stability and patience, and strong will of Lebanese resistance fighters and Lebanese people, who have managed to thwart enemies’ plots over the past decades.

“Lebanon will not be the arena in which the (the United States of) America can achieve its political objectives. Lebanon has been and will remain to be the place for victories of Hezbollah, and decline in the American role in the region,” the senior Hezbollah official said.

Source: Press TV

gallery Sri Lanka Blasts: Terrorism Targets Another Ally of China?

Global Research, April 27, 2019

The recent, tragic Easter attack in the South Asian state of Sri Lanka – killing and injuring hundreds – follows a now unfortunately all too familiar formula.

The New York Times has reported in its article, “What We Know and Don’t Know About the Sri Lanka Attacks,” that:

The authorities in Sri Lanka said a little-known radical Islamist group, the National Thowheeth Jama’ath, [believed to have ties to the Islamic State] carried out the attacks, with help from international militants.

It is also reported that these extremists received assistance for the large-scale attack from foreign sponsors. The attack has put Sri Lanka on the map for many in the general public for the first time – but for all the wrong reasons.

Countering OBOR: Divide and Destroy 

Sri Lanka has recently and decisively pivoted toward Beijing as a major partner of the One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative. This is despite Washington’s best efforts to prevent it from doing so.

Consequently, extremists fuelled by Washington’s “clash of civilizations” have helped set the stage for growing violence between Sir Lanka’s majority Buddhists and its minority Muslim communities. The resulting violence serves as a medium for US coercion, destabilization, and intervention aimed at undermining Sri Lanka’s unity as a nation, and thus its viability as a partner for China.

A nearly identical ploy has been used in nearby Myanmar where US-backed Buddhist extremists battle against US-Saudi-Qatari backed extremism rising from the ranks of the nation’s Muslim Rohingya minority.

The resulting violence and growing humanitarian crisis – without coincidence – is unfolding in Myanmar’s Rakhine state – precisely where China is attempting to build another leg of its region-spanning OBOR initiative.

Sri Lanka has signed on to OBOR in a big way, with major railport, airport, and highway projects all moving forward with Beijing’s support. Sri Lanka is also considered by Western policymakers as one of several among China’s strategic “String of Pearls,” strong points where China can secure maritime routes through waters traditionally dominated by the United States.

These projects are derided across the Western media with headlines like the New York Times’ article, “How China Got Sri Lanka to Cough Up a Port” and France24’s article, “In Sri Lanka, the new Chinese Silk Road is a disappointment” – characterizing Washington’s growing opposition to China’s expanding influence across Asia – a region Washington has long presumed primacy over.

Washington’s ability to compete with China regarding regional development is nonexistent. Instead, the US has tried to tempt nations like Sri Lanka with military aid.

AFP in an article titled, “US gives Sri Lankan military US$39 million, countering China’s investments in strategic island,” would claim:

The US funding for Sri Lanka is part of a US$300 million package Washington is setting aside for South and Southeast Asia to ensure a “free, open, and rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific region”.

This “free, open, and rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific region,” is how the US regularly refers to US primacy in Asia throughout policy papersdiplomatic statements, and even political speeches.

It is obvious that “military aid” can in no way compete with massive investments by China aimed at spurring national development through tangible infrastructure projects.

America’s inability to compete openly and on equal economic footing has given way to political interference and even the use of violence.

Sri Lanka’s Crisis Linked to US-Driven Crisis in Myanmar 

In Myanmar, the US is documented to have supported ethnic violence for years. The US all but installed current “State Counsellor” Aung San Suu Kyi into power along with her political party – the National League for Democracy (NLD) lined top to bottom with US State Department-funded “activists.

Despite the liberal facade constructed by the Western media around Suu Kyi, her political party, and factions supporting both – rampant bigotry and racism pervades all three.

Simultaneously, US-funded fronts posing as nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) have worked to co-opt and wield Rohingya communities as an equal but opposing political weapon while US-allies Saudi Arabia and Qatar have begun radicalizing and arming factions within Rohingya communities to carry out armed violence across Rakhine state.

The resulting conflagration affords the US and its partners a pretext to intervene on an ever expanding scale – giving Washington access to and leverage over Myanmar to counter Beijing’s growing influence.

And in precisely the same way the US has inserted itself into the heart of Myanmar’s political affairs – it is attempting to do so again in other Asian nations – including now Sri Lanka.

Articles from across the Western media including the UK Independent’s 2018 article titled, “Violent Buddhist extremists are targeting Muslims in Sri Lanka,” even establish direct links between Myanmar’s and Sri Lanka’s growing conflicts.
The article would admit (emphasis added):

Currently, Sri Lanka’s most active Buddhist extremist group is Bodu Bala Sena (Buddhist power force, or BBS). BBS entered politics in 2012 with a Buddhist-nationalist ideology and agenda, its leaders claiming that Sri Lankans had become immoral and turned away from Buddhism. And whom does it blame? Sri Lankan Muslims.

BBS’s rhetoric takes its cue from other populist anti-Muslim movements around the globe, claiming that Muslims are “taking over” the country thanks to a high birth rate. It also accuses Muslim organisations of funding international terrorism with money from Halal-certified food industries. These aren’t just empty words; in 2014, one of their anti-Muslim protest rallies in the southern town of Aluthgama ended with the death of four Muslims.

BBS also has links to Myanmar’s extremist 969 movement. Led by nationalist monk Ashin Wirathu, who calls himself the “Burmese Bin Laden”, it is notorious for its hardline rhetoric against the Rohingya Muslim community.

The West’s use of “Islamophobia” to sell its serial wars of aggression and to divide nations around the globe is a classic example of “divide and conquer.

While the West no longer possesses any real means to “conquer” the nations it is now targeting – it does possess the capacity to use resulting divisions to destroy them. If the US cannot hold primacy over Asia – no one will. It is a “War on Peace” waged under the guise of a “War on Terrorism.”

Sri Lanka appears to be but the latest victim of Washington’s now trademark “slash and burn” foreign policy – where it is fueling conflict to consume political orders that oppose its interests, and building upon the ashes ones that do serve them instead.

In the coming days, weeks, and months – not only will more information emerge linking the recent attacks in Sri Lanka to Washington, Riyadh, and Doha’s global network of terrorism – but additional pressure will also be mounted upon Sri Lanka to divest from Beijing and pivot back toward the West.

In reality – Sri Lanka’s violence is an artificial construct carried out by a tiny minority of extremists on either side of an equally artificial ethnoreligious divide. The nation and the region must unite in purpose – as peace and stability benefit them all – while chaos benefits only a handful of waning interests from afar.

*

Note to readers: please click the share buttons below. Forward this article to your email lists. Crosspost on your blog site, internet forums. etc.

Tony Cartalucci is Bangkok-based geopolitical researcher and writer, especially for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook” where this article was originally published. He is a frequent contributor to Global Research.

Featured image is from NEO

Canada and the Propaganda War on Venezuela

Global Research, April 27, 2019

“I have ground zero information on everything that happens there. And trust me, what the Canadian public, and the American public and the international community are watching is a huge Hollywood show.”

– Venezuelan in Canada, from an interview with Eva Bartlett

LISTEN TO THE SHOW

Click to download the audio (MP3 format) 

The US and Canada have long sought regime change in Venezuela.

In order to enable this agenda, the political leadership of the two countries have been drowning their populations with propaganda. According to the standard account, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has undemocratically ceased power, and is oppressing his own people. President Maduroand his predecessor Hugo Chavez are singularly to blame for a devastating economic situation forcing millions to flee the once prosperous South American nation. [1]

Mainstream media, pundits, and popular television comedy show hosts like John Oliver are only too happy to uncritically echo these interpretations of the plight of the Venezuelan people. More to the point, they appear to be presenting as fact an embellishment of the difficulties facing ordinary and poor Venezuelans.

Among standard talking points: people across the nation are taking to the streets to oppose Maduro’srule, leading to violent reprisals by the government and crackdowns on dissident mediaMaduro’smismanagement of the economy has led to empty grocery store shelves. President Maduro, back in February, authorized the destruction of aid entering the country from neighbouring Columbia. Maduro’spresidency is illegitimate and the opposition National Assembly’s recognition of Juan Guaidó as interim President is constitutionally valid.

Audiences in the U.S. and Canada are led to believe the people of Venezuela overwhelmingly oppose Maduro’s ‘grip’ on power, but are helpless to challenge his ‘authoritarian’ rule.

As with ‘humanitarian wars’ Western nations have sanctioned over the last two decades, even liberal critics of their nations’ interventionist policies feel the need to express their position with a disclaimer of sorts along the lines of ‘He may be a bad guy, but…’

Aggressive foreign policy toward Venezuela or any other country requires at least tacit support from domestic populations in nominally democratic countries like Canada, hence the need by Western leaders to control the foreign policy narrative. This is why it is necessary for the broader public to ascertain the actual facts on the ground, and confront the assertions providing a pretext for foreign interference, particularly military intervention, in another country’s internal affairs.

This week, the Global Research News Hour takes on conventional messaging on the Venezuela situation with three provocative interview guests.

In the first half hour, frequent guest Yves Engler joins us to share some insights into Canada’s actual interests in Venezuela as well as provide background on a specific Canadian think tank, known as the Canadian International Council, which is acting to shape Canadian policy in an imperialistic direction. Excerpts of a recent talk by former Canadian Ambassador to Venezuela, Ben Rowswell are incorporated into this discussion.

In the second half hour, two Canadian journalists, Eva Bartlett and Dimitri Lascaris, talk about what they saw and experienced in Venezuela during their recent visits to the country. They also help us make sense of social and mainstream media distortion of the realities on the ground.

Yves Engler is one of Canada’s foremost Canadian foreign policy critics and dissidents. He is the author of nine books on Canadian foreign policy including The Black Book of Canadian Foreign Policy (2009), and his most recent, Left, Right: Marching to the Beat of Imperial Canada. His articles have appeared at rabble.ca, canadiandimension.com, and on his own site yvesengler.com.

Dimitri Lascaris is a lawyer, activist, and journalist. A former partner with Siskinds LLP, Lascaris was once named one of Canada’s most influential lawyers by Canadian Lawyer Magazine. He is currently a correspondent and Board member of The Real News Network and the Chair of the Board of Canadians for Justice and Peace in the Middle East.

Eva Bartlett is a Canadian independent journalist and activist. She has spent years on the ground covering conflict zones in the Middle East, especially in Syria and Palestine. She is a recipient of the International Journalism Award for International Reporting. Eva recently returned from a visit to Venezuela. She will be speaking in Hamilton on Monday April 29th.

(Global Research News Hour Episode 257)

LISTEN TO THE SHOW

Click to download the audio (MP3 format)

The Global Research News Hour airs every Friday at 1pm CT on CKUW 95.9FM in Winnipeg. The programme is also podcast at globalresearch.ca . Excerpts of the show have begun airing on Rabble Radio and appear as podcasts at rabble.ca.

The Global Research News Hour now airs Fridays at 6pm PST, 8pm CST and 9pm EST on Alternative Current Radio (alternativecurrentradio.com)

Community Radio Stations carrying the Global Research News Hour:

CHLY 101.7fm in Nanaimo, B.C – Thursdays at 1pm PT

Boston College Radio WZBC 90.3FM NEWTONS  during the Truth and Justice Radio Programming slot -Sundays at 7am ET.

Port Perry Radio in Port Perry, Ontario –1  Thursdays at 1pm ET

Burnaby Radio Station CJSF out of Simon Fraser University. 90.1FM to most of Greater Vancouver, from Langley to Point Grey and from the North Shore to the US Border.

It is also available on 93.9 FM cable in the communities of SFU, Burnaby, New Westminister, Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, Surrey and Delta, in British Columbia, Canada. – Tune in  at its new time – Wednesdays at 4pm PT.

Radio station CFUV 101.9FM based at the University of Victoria airs the Global Research News Hour every Sunday from 7 to 8am PT.

CORTES COMMUNITY RADIO CKTZ  89.5 out of Manson’s Landing, B.C airs the show Tuesday mornings at 10am Pacific time.

Cowichan Valley Community Radio CICV 98.7 FM serving the Cowichan Lake area of Vancouver Island, BC airs the program Thursdays at 6am pacific time.

Campus and community radio CFMH 107.3fm in  Saint John, N.B. airs the Global Research News Hour Fridays at 10am.

Caper Radio CJBU 107.3FM in Sydney, Cape Breton, Nova Scotia airs the Global Research News Hour starting Wednesday Morning from 8:00 to 9:00am. Find more details at www.caperradio.ca

RIOT RADIO, the visual radio station based out of Durham College in Oshawa, Ontario has begun airing the Global Research News Hour on an occasional basis. Tune in at dcstudentsinc.ca/services/riot-radio/

Radio Fanshawe: Fanshawe’s 106.9 The X (CIXX-FM) out of London, Ontario airs the Global Research News Hour Sundays at 6am with an encore at 4pm.

Los Angeles, California based Thepowerofvoices.com airs the Global Research News Hour every Monday from 6-7pm Pacific time.

Notes:

  1. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-363198772.html

Slow down. Life is crossing the road.

April 26, 2019

Update from our community on this day:   The global Vineyard community focuses on our friend.

A prayer or meditation for The Saker.


For a short period, we will be in slow mode on The Saker blog.

The Saker is going into hospital for a battery of diagnostics tests and one can never estimate how long these will take and the toll that these will take on a human being.   During this short period, The Saker requested that we make the following announcements:

Regular contributors and correspondents

Please continue sending work and articles to The Saker as per the usual procedure.  He will as usual take a look at these and we will prepare the material for posting.

Email to The Saker

Kindly slow this right down.  Your e-mail will probably not get attention for the next little while.

Technical problems go to our Webmaster as usual.

Anything else that is important and cannot wait, please e-email me (but it may have to wait in any event).

For posting important articles and breaking news items, go to the Cafe and on the right hand side bar, there is a news-feed for readers to post these important items.    http://thesaker.is/news-rss-feeds/

A friend of mine who analyzes ‘Big Data’ recently said that the news cycle is now driven by Twitter and besides even all the de-platforming and attacks on free speech that we’ve almost grown accustomed to, people are in addition self-censoring their words to such an extent that to find true prescient information and solid analysis is very hard.  Let’s not do that in this slow-down period and let’s continue to speak from the heart, spiced with a whole bunch of analytical sense.  If you jones for The Saker, come and join us in the Movable Feast Cafe.

Regular contributions will continue and we will have some of our own Saker analysts on standby in the event of major world changes.  But my expectation is that The Saker will have his tablet with him and report, no matter which diagnostic test he is involved in.

Updates will be posted here when we have them.

All that remains then for this announcement is to send a prayer to The Saker so that he feels better and gets through all these tests with dignity and style.

Amarynth

Russia’s “Military Diplomacy” Might Succeed in Getting Turkey to Switch Sides

Global Research, April 26, 2019

Turkey’s planned purchase of Russia’s S-400s has created a serious crisis within NATO and might lead to the Mideast country’s de-facto departure from the bloc

***

Turkish-American ties have been seriously strained over the past few years since the US started arming Syrian-based Kurdish fighters that Ankara considers to be terrorists and the Mideast country’s officials strongly implied that Washington had a hand in the failed summer 2016 coup attempt against President Erdogan.

It’s little wonder then that Turkey began to reorient itself eastward towards Russia and plans to purchase the S-400s, seeing as how this air defense system could neutralize any prospective threat emanating either from the American Air Force or possibly even an American-backed Kurdish one that might one day take shape in northeastern Syria.

Russia’s “military diplomacy” seeks to maintain the balance of power everywhere in the world in order to facilitate diplomatic solutions to seemingly intractable conflicts, which in this context could see Turkey improving its defenses to the point of strengthening its negotiating hand with the US over the coup and Kurdish issues that lay at the heart of their “security dilemma”. Moscow also knows that the sale of high-level equipment such as the S-400s precedes the establishment of long-term military-to-military partnerships that could facilitate the recipient’s embrace of multipolarity as it seeks to step away from the US’ unipolar-controlled sphere of influence.

Such transitions take time for logistical and other reasons, but the process might accelerate in the Turkish case after the US threatened to exclude its nominal NATO partner from the F-35 program, which in turn prompted unnamed Turkish defense officials to reportedly claim that their country can just turn to Russia for replacements instead. In the event that Turkey’s purchase of the S-400s leads to the US carrying through on its F-35 threats and Ankara reactively reaches out to Russia for Sukhois or other warplanes, then the intra-NATO crisis would enter a qualitatively new and much more intense phase.

It’s not to suggest that Russia’s “military diplomacy” was aimed at deviously advancing this “master plan” all along, but just to point out the role that Moscow played in this chain of events that developed outside of its control. Had it not been for the US’ support of Syrian-based Kurdish militants and the shadowy role that it probably played in the failed 2016 coup attempt, then Turkey’s trust in its decades-long partner wouldn’t have deteriorated to the point where Ankara felt compelled to reach out to Washington’s rivals in Moscow in order to ensure its national security needs, something that Russia was eager to assist it with.

Turkey is rapidly developing its mutually beneficial strategic partnership with Russia, which serves the grand strategic interests of both multipolar Great Powers. This new Russian-Turkish relationship has greatly stabilized the military situation in Syria and holds the promise of improving the prospects of a political solution to the long-running conflict there, even if it’s still somewhat imperfect and some kinks remain to be worked out. Nevertheless, Russia obtains a reliable partner with enormous commercial market potential while Turkey receives reliable energy supplies from a country with impressive military-technology capabilities that it’s more than willing to export.

As for the US, it doubly loses because one of its main geostrategic rivals has successfully “poached” one of Washington’s top Mideast allies as a result of America’s reckless regional policies that got it into this mess in the first place. The US and Turkey will still try to retain some degree of pragmatic relations on issues of shared interest, but the partnership will never be the same again unless President Erdogan and the ruling AKP are deposed of and a vehemently pro-American replacement rises to power, which appears unlikely for the time being but nevertheless can’t be ruled out.

Going forward, the odds are that Turkey won’t be formally removed from NATO because no such mechanism exists but will instead probably be de-facto isolated from most of the bloc’s working activities, especially those related to intelligence sharing and joint military exercises. The US can’t take the risk of unraveling the military alliance on which so much of its European influence depends, no matter how divided and ineffective it is in practice, so indefinitely putting Turkey in “time-out” is the most realistic option available to it for mitigating the strategic fallout of Ankara switching sides as a result of Moscow’s “military diplomacy”.

*

Note to readers: please click the share buttons below. Forward this article to your email lists. Crosspost on your blog site, internet forums. etc.

This article was originally published on InfoRos.

Andrew Korybko is an American Moscow-based political analyst specializing in the relationship between the US strategy in Afro-Eurasia, China’s One Belt One Road global vision of New Silk Road connectivity, and Hybrid Warfare. He is a frequent contributor to Global Research.

Featured image is from InfoRos

<span>%d</span> bloggers like this: