The Occupation is Between the Edges of Two Swords, Which One to Choose?

Sunday, October 8, 2023
Amro Allan
Al-Mayadeen,

On October 7, 2023, the Arab and Islamic nation woke up to news of an earthquake (in the strategic sense). The Israeli occupation army was delt a brutal blow, and the media was filled with pictures of the Palestinian resistance forces storming the occupation military barracks and settlements by land, sea, and air.

The Zionist Entity apparatus was completely paralyzed for several hours due to the shock, and the occupation army brigades located on the borders of the Gaza Strip suffered an almost complete collapse during the first few hours of the start of the “Al-Aqsa Flood” battle, which was announced by Muhammad Al-Deif , Commander-in-Chief of the Palestinian Resistance .

The events of the first day of the battle confirmed that the ” balance of power ” has indeed changed, and it is no longer completely in the interest of the Zionist Entity in the face of the armed Palestinian resistance and the forces of Arab and Islamic liberation in the region as it was in the past. But, what next? And what are the occupation’s options in the face of what it is facing?

Until now, the Palestinian resistance forces have been able to enter seven military barracks of the occupation army, and they have also taken control of three settlements, while violent clashes are still taking place in other settlements, according to the Israeli media. The Palestinian resistance sources said though that they are engaged in strong clashes in twenty-five settlements around the Gaza Strip which seems closer to the truth.

However, regardless of the exact number of settlements Which the Palestinian resistance forces entered, the mere entry of those settlements and the military barracks (even if the resistance factions cannot remain in them) is a strategic achievement that ushers a new era in the Palestinians’ struggle for liberation. And after the scene of its catastrophic collapse, the occupation army cannot regain its lost prestige except by entering Gaza by land and eliminating the presence of the Palestinian resistance factions there.

Accordingly, the occupation finds itself faced with two options – the most bitter – as follows:

One, to suffice with an air bombardment campaign to which the resistance factions in the Gaza Strip are accustomed, the results of which will be the same as its predecessors and will not achieve any strategic result that changes the reality. But this time, there are dozens of prisoners of occupation soldiers in the grip of the Palestinian resistance, and the occupation will not be able to recover them by launching an air campaign, no matter how strong it is, and that will conclusively confirm the occupation’s defeat in the current battle.

Two, to try to storm the Gaza Strip by land. However, this action entails great risks; if the occupation had guaranteed the success of the ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, it would have done this in previous battles and rounds of escalation. Not to mention the message that Hezbollah sent through the recent missile bombardment on Shebaa Farms, and what the Chairman of the Executive Council of Hezbollah said that Hezbollah is not neutral in the battle of “Al-Aqsa Flood”. This contains a threat that if the occupation decides to escalate, the battle of the “Al-Aqsa Flood” can turn into a wider regional war that both the Zionist Entity and the United States of America fear.

The battle of the “Al-Aqsa Flood” is still in its infancy, and it is likely that it will continue for days or weeks, with a possibility that it will develop into a decisive regional war. However, the Palestinian resistance has achieved victory from the first strike. Because even if the occupation can re-impose its complete control over the Settlements entered by the Palestinian resistance, this will not be considered a victory for the occupation. This is because these settlements are no longer a suitable place for the settlers to occupy, as they have become within the reach of the Palestinian resistance.

As for the other two options, the first is weak and does not serve the purpose, while the second option carries with it the possibility of the complete collapse of the Zionist Entity.

In any case, the next few days remain full of surprises, as the Palestinian resistance surprised friend and enemy alike with their unanticipated attack on October 7, and only the leaders of the “Joint Operations Room” in the Gaza Strip and the region are the ones who control the events of the field.