Eva Bartlett on Syria (interview with Syriana Analysis)


Nasrallah Says US Helps ISIS, Does Not Allow it to be Eliminated

[ Ed. note – Sadly, he’s probably right. ]

Press TV

The secretary general of the Lebanese Hezbollah says the United States does not want Daesh Takfiri group to be destroyed and is providing Takfiri terrorists with assistance through its bases in Syria.

Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah made the remarks while delivering a speech at a ceremony held in al-Ain town in North Bekaa region to commemorate two martyred members of the resistance movement.

The ceremony was held after Hezbollah commander, Ali al-Hadi al-Asheq, and Hezbollah fighter, Mohammad Nasserdine, were killed, along with five other fighters, while fighting the Takfiri terrorists in Syria last week.

“It is only the United States, which does not let Daesh be totally annihilated,” Nasrallah said in his speech.

The Hezbollah leader added that the US was helping Daesh through its base in Syrian city of Raqqah and also through a base it runs near Syria’s border with Jordan where Daesh terrorists are trained.

“US Air Force does not allow the Syrian army and resistance groups to advance toward positions occupied by Daesh,” he added.

Stressing the need to continue the ongoing fight against Daesh despite efforts made by the US, Nasrallah said, “If we do not continue the war against Daesh, the Takfiri group will hit again and resume its campaign of massacre and terror.”

Nasrallah emphasized that Daesh would return to all areas it had lost if the fight against the group stopped, because Daesh was like a malignant cancer, which must be uprooted.

Nasrallah stated that the US did not want the Lebanese army to fight Daesh in those areas, which had been occupied by the Takfiri group, and to achieve this goal, it even stopped its aid to the Lebanese army for a period of time.

The leader of the Lebanese Hezbollah stated that the “Wahhabi Takfiri Daesh” group was only present in small parts of Iraq and Syria, but the group must be totally annihilated, because if not, it would continue to threaten Iraq and Syria.

He noted that the main strategy followed by Daesh was to extend its existence, so that, it could launch new battles to reclaim liberated towns and villages.

Elsewhere in his remarks, Nasrallah noted that the Middle East region was facing a new scheme devised by the United States and Saudi Arabia, which was mainly aimed at Iran.

He stated that Washington and Tel Aviv kept lying about Tehran’s nuclear program as they were outraged by the Islamic Republic’s influential role in the Middle East.

Continued here

Heroic Palestinian Op.: Three «Israelis» Killed, 1 Injured in Northern Al-Quds

Palestinian martyr Nimer Jamal


26-09-2017 | 11:03

Three “Israelis” – two security officers and a border guard – had been killed in the north of the “Israeli”-occupied al-Quds [Jerusalem] in a heroic Palestinian operation.

“Israeli” Occupation Forces [IOF] said they had shot dead a Palestinian who they claim was responsible for the operation.

The 37-year-old Palestinian had “arrived at the rear gate of ‘Har Adar’ along with Palestinian laborers entering the settlement,” “Israeli” police said on Tuesday. He “aroused the suspicion” of officers on the scene, who called for him to stop. He “pulled out a weapon and opened fire at the force at the site.”

They also claimed that a fourth “Israeli” sustained injuries in the operation.

The Palestinian martyr, a father of four, was identified by Palestinian media as Nimer Mahmoud Ahmad Jamal from Bayt Surik village.

Quds Op

Over the past two years, “Israeli” forces had murdered many Palestinians protesting Tel Aviv’s restrictions on access to the al-Aqsa Mosque compound, which is located in al-Quds’ Old City. The mosque is Islam’s third holiest site after Mecca and Medina in Saudi Arabia.

The “Israeli” entity fully closed off the compound to Muslims after a reported shootout on July 14 near the site that left two “Israeli” soldiers dead and three Palestinians martyred. The closure sparked far-and-wide condemnation across the Muslim world.

The entity restored access to the compound later, but placed metal detectors at its front, prompting Muslims to continue their rallies and refuse to enter the site. Tel Aviv later also removed the detectors, but has set up CCTV cameras at the site’s entrances, a measure that Palestinians still consider to be a provocation.

Palestinians say Tel Aviv is trying to change the status quo at the site and manipulate the demographic configuration of occupied territories.

Source: News Agencies, Edited by website team

Hamas, Islamic Jihad Hail Heroic Operation in Al-Quds

September 26, 2017

Har Adar operation

Palestinian resistance movements hailed heroic operation which took place Tuesday near Al-Quds and killed three Israeli occupation forces.

Hamas spokesman, Hazem Qassem, said in a statement that the operation in the so-called settlement of Har Adar, is a new part of the Intifada series.

“Al-Quds operation confirms that our uprising youths will proceed their fight till the complete liberation of our land and the complete freedom of our people,” Qassem said according to Palestine Today TV network.

“The operation means that our people will go ahead with their battle to secure rights,” the spokesman said, stressing that the normal relation between the Palestinians and the Israelis is based on confrontation.

Meanwhile, Qassem said that all attempts to Judaize and change the identity of Al-Quds won’t pass.

“Al-Quds is Palestinian and our people will fight till the end.”

For its part, Islamic Jihad resistance movement said the operation represents the conscience of the Palestinian people as it re-orders the national priorities which have been mixed due to internal disputes between Palestinian groups.

“The blessed operation in Al-Quds slaps in the face all those who call for normalization with Zionist entity, as it says that we’ll never cede one iota of our soil,” head of the movement’s media office, Daoud Shehab said in a statement.

The operation is a normal retaliation against the repeated attempts by the Neo-Zionism to take over Al-Aqsa Mosque and storm the holy site, Shehab added.

“The message behind the operation is: ‘Quit your dream, or else our weapons will chase you in every single corner and every road.’”

“Al-Quds is the compass and the goal,” Shehab concluded.

Source: Palestine Today

مقتل 3 إسرائيليين في عملية بمستوطنة “هار أدار” قرب القدس


استشهاد شاب فلسطيني بعد تنفيذه عملية إطلاق نار في مستوطنة هار أدار قرب القدس المحتلة أسفرت عن مقتل 3 مجندين إسرائيليين، وقوات إسرائيلية تقتحم منزل منفذ العملية في بيت سوريك وتفرض حصاراً على قريته، وفصائل فلسطينية تبارك العملية وترى فيها استمراراً لانتفاضة القدس وصفعة لمن يطبّع مع إسرائيل.

مقتل 3 إسرائيليين واستشهاد فلسطيني في عملية بمستوطنة هار أدار قرب القدس

قالت وسائل إعلام إسرائيلية إنّ شاباً فلسطينياً نفّذ صباح اليوم الثلاثاء عملية في مستوطنة هار أدار أسفرت عن مقتل 3 إسرائيليين.

وأشارت إلى أن عملية إطلاق النار وقعت شمال غرب القدس المحتلة قتل فيها عنصرا أمن وجندي من “حرس الحدود” وأدت لإصابة آخر بجروح خطرة.

في حين أفادت وسائل إعلام فلسطينية بأنّ الشهيد هو الشاب نمر الجمل من قرية بيت سوريك ويبلغ من العمر 37 عاماً.

3 הרוגים ופצוע קשה בפיגוע ירי בהר אדר @OrHeller pic.twitter.com/JrDZEK2pkm

3 הרוגים ופצוע קשה בפיגוע ירי בהר אדר @OrHeller
عرض الصورة على تويتر
عرض الصورة على تويتر
عرض الصورة على تويتر
عرض الصورة على تويتر

 للشهيد نمر الجمل من بيت سوريك وأطفاله الأربعة، منفذ عملية اطلاق النار التي قتل فيها 3 جنود بمستوطنة هار ادار قرب القدس.

وقالت المتحدثة باسم شرطة الاحتلال الإسرائيلي لوبا السمري أنّ الشاب الفلسطيني قام بالتقدم تجاه البوابة الخلفية لمستوطنة هار أدار مباشرة وأطلق النار تجاه قوة من شرطة “حرس الحدود” التي تواجدت في المكان.

وسائل إعلام إسرائيلية ذكرت أيضاً أن منفذ العملية وصل إلى المستوطنة في إطار دخول عمّال فلسطينيين، مشيرة إلى أن هذه هي المرة الأولى التي تحدث فيها عملية في هذه المنطقة بهذا الشكل وبهذا الحجم.

كما قالت إن القوات الإسرائيلية تنفذ عملية تمشيط للمنطقة للتأكد من عدم وجود مساعدين لمنفذ العملية.

وعقب العملية قامت الشرطة الإسرائيلية بتجميع كل العمال الفلسطينيين الذين كانوا عند مدخل المستوطنة وأخضعتهم لعمليات تفتيش دقيقة، وفقاً للإعلام الإسرائيلي.

كما داهمت القوات الإسرائيلية منزل منفّذ العملية في بيت سوريك، وفرضت حصاراً على القرية.

כוחות מג’’ב נמצאים כעת בכניסה האחורית של הר אדר. צילום: TPS pic.twitter.com/DxCUYlVkth

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כוחות מג’’ב נמצאים כעת בכניסה האחורית של הר אדר. צילום: TPS


فصائل فلسطينية تبارك العملية

وفي أول ردّ فلسطيني على العملية، قال الناطق باسم حماس عبد اللطيف القانوع إنّ الحركة تبارك العملية وتعتبرها “رداً على جرائم الاحتلال”، مضيفاً أن “العملية هي حلقة جديدة في انتفاضة القدس، وهي تأكيد من الشباب المنتفض أنه سيواصل القتال حتى الحرية الكاملة للشعب والأرض”.

نبارك عملية القدس البطولية التي نفذها صباح اليوم الشهيد البطل نمر محمود أحمد جمل، وأدت إلى مقتل ثلاثة جنود صهاينة وإصابة رابع بجروح خطيرة.

واعتبرت حماس أن القدس “قلب الصراع مع الاحتلال ولا مجال لاخراجها من المعادلة”.

بدوره قال الناطق باسم كتائب القسام “أبو عبيدة” إن عملية القدس “انتصار للدم الفلسطيني ونموذج لخيار الشعب في تدفيع العدو للثمن جزاء تغوّله وإجرامه المتواصل بحق شعبنا ومقدساتنا”.

أما حركة الجهاد الإسلامي فقالت “ما حدث هو عملية مباركة تصفع المطبّعين وتقول لا مجال للتفريط بذرة من تراب القدس”.

الجبهة الشعبية لتحرير فلسطين رأت أن “العمليات البطولية التي تستهدف المستعمرات الصهيونية هي الطريق لكنس الاستيطان وضرب المشروع الاستعماري الاستيطاني في الضفة المحتلة على نحو خاص”.

واعتبرت الجبهة أن عملية ” نمر القدس” البطولية في إشارة إلى اسم الشهيد إنما “تأتي في سياق العمل المقاوم ضد المستوطنين، ويشكل رداً رادعاً على ممارستهم وتغولهم على الأرض الفلسطينية”.

عضو المكتب السياسي للجبهة الديمقراطية لتحرير فلسطين طلال أبو ظريفة قال إن عملية القدس “رد فعلي طبيعي مشروع على ممارسات وإجراءات الاحتلال، وجاءت لمجابهة سياسة الاستيطان والتهديد اليومي من المستوطنين لأبناء شعبنا في القدس والأراضي الفلسطينية وتأكيد على استمرار الانتفاضة”.

من ناحيته قال منير جاغوب الناطق بلسان حركة فتح إنّ إسرائيل وحدها تتحمل ردود الفعل الفلسطينية على جرائمها.

لجان المقاومة في فلسطين باركت أيضاً العملية واعتبرتها تأكيداً على تمسك الشعب الفلسطيني بخيار المقاومة ورداً على الجرائم الإسرائيلية.

كما باركت حركة الأحرار عملية القدس ورأت فيها “رسالة تثبت حيوية انتفاضة القدس وتدعو للمزيد للجم الاحتلال”.

نتنياهو يهدد بعقوبات جماعية..وعضو كنيست تطالب برمي جثمان الشهيد في البحر

من ناحيته هدد رئيس الوزراء الإسرائيلي بنيامين نتانياهو بعقوبات جماعية وقال “من الآن اعرفوا سنهدم منزل منفذ العملية ونسحب تصاريح العمل من عائلته”، مشيراً إلى أن العملية تدل على أسلوب جديد في العمل.

وقال نتنياهو “يجب الاستعداد لأسلوب جديد وغير مألوف من العمليات”.

بدوره اتهم وزير الدفاع أفيغدور ليبرمان السلطة الفلسطينية “بالتحريض لتنفيذ العملية”.

أما نائبة رئيس الكنيست نافا بوكر فدعت من جهتها إلى “إلقاء جثة منفذ عملية القدس في البحر”.

ליבי עם משפחות הנרצחים, השם יקום דמם! וכן, את גופת המחבל צריך לקחת מההר ולהשליך לים!

الشهيد الجمل: يا الله !

آخر ما نشره الشهيد الجمل قبل ساعات من تنفيذه العملية

وتداول ناشطون على وسائل التواصل الاجتماعي صوراً للشهيد نمر الجمل ولعائلته.

ومن أكثر المنشورات تداولاً بين الناشطين كان آخر من كتبه على صفحته في فيسبوك، حيث كتب الشهيد الجمل قبل ساعات من تنفيذه العملية “يا الله”.

وقام ناشطون إسرائيليون بمهاجمة صفحة الشهيد وكتبوا شعارات عنصرية ونشروا صوراً مسيئة للشهيد وللفلسطينيين.

ولاحقاً قامت إدارة فيسبوك بحذف الصفحة الخاصة بالشهيد وهو أمر تكرر مع شهداء فلسطينيين بعد تنفيذهم عمليات داخل الأراضي المحتلة.


إسرائيل حذفت صفحته من فيسبوك..الشهيد نمر قبيل ساعات من تنفيذه العملية: يا الله!

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Trumps UN Speech, Hypocrisy and Lies



The Guardian View on Saudi Arabia: The Seventh Son Rises

19-09-2017 | 13:50

A crackdown on dissent by the youngest heir apparent in Saudi history will not help the desert kingdom find a way out of an economic mess at home and misguided entanglements abroad


The ascension in June of Muhammed bin Salman as crown prince of Saudi Arabia was an instant Rorschach test for observers of the desert kingdom. Is he a reformer prepared to drag his kingdom, a repressive regime that writes very large welfare cheques, into the 21st century or a callow princeling whose rise to power could destabilize the region? The 31-year-old prince has undoubtedly amassed great power and dominates Saudi economic, diplomatic and domestic policy.

The crown prince, known as MBS, is also the architect of the bloody quagmire of the Yemen war and a hardliner in the current Gulf row with neighboring Qatar. His father, King Salman, 81, is not in good health, walks with a stick and suffers from brain fades in meetings. By anointing his seventh son as the youngest heir apparent in Saudi history, the ailing monarch has signaled a decisive break with the past.

If the first few months are a reliable guide, then the omens for the future are not good. The palace coup that saw MBS take power was bloodless. In the summer’s Game of Thrones, his powerful uncles and rivals were either sidelined or placed under house arrest. The sense of how riven the Saudi royal house is could be gleaned from reports, sourced from within the court, claiming the other leading contender for the throne had a drug problem. Last week it emerged that Saudi authorities had launched a crackdown on dissent, targeting Islamic thinkers, public critics and political rivals.

Two prominent clerics were taken away for failing to publicly declare their support for the crown prince’s stance toward Qatar.

Both are popular with the Saudi public, with millions of Twitter followers. Another journalist has been banned from writing opinion columns, while human rights activists have been given outlandish eight-year prison sentences for peaceful campaigning. Whatever MBS’s public face, this intolerance of dissent is almost paranoid.

If there was time for Saudi society to debate how to proceed, it’s probably now. Saudi Arabia was the cradle of [extremism] so its stability is a global concern. In domestic terms, Saudi Arabia is a mess.

The kingdom is the world’s largest oil exporter, with reserves of 260bn barrels – but it is a one-trick economy. Oil prices have plummeted from the highs of 2014, forcing Riyadh to spend some $200bn from its foreign exchange reserves to cover its deficit.

In response the crown prince instigated a Thatcherite program of privatization and subsidy cuts to balance the books. But these moves threatened the social contract between the royal family and its subjects, the majority of whom are under 35.
On the world stage, Saudi Arabia has been forced on the back foot by events and its own incompetence.

The war in Yemen, costly in civilian lives, and a blockade of Qatar are a result of draining infatuations.

Instead of succeeding, those obsessions have been embarrassments for the crown prince. Riyadh is now courting Iraq’s leadership – especially those close to Iran. It has withdrawn from Syria, leaving that country’s future in the hands of Moscow, Ankara and Tehran.

Source: The Guardian, Edited by website team

Is a New ‘Kosovo’ Brewing in Myanmar?

Is a New ‘Kosovo’ Brewing in Myanmar?


Is a New ‘Kosovo’ Brewing in Myanmar?

Whenever western governments and mainstream media start shedding crocodile tears over a minority community of «peaceful Muslims»© being persecuted by some nasty non-Muslim government somewhere, with demands that the «international community» do something about it, it should be treated with a big, fat dollop of skepticism.

At issue at the moment are the Rohingya, approximately one million of whom constitute a large minority in Rakhine (formerly Arakan) state in Myanmar (formerly Burma). According to reports in the prestige media and from (government-funded) human rights groups, Myanmar’s government is oppressing the Rohingya, many of whom have fled next door into predominantly Muslim Bangladesh.

We are told that the Rohingya, «often described as ‘the world’s most persecuted minority’» at the hands of Rakhine Buddhists incited by fanatical monks backed up by the national government, are facing genocide and ethnic cleansing. The international community must do something! Where’s Samantha «the Genocide Chick» Power when we need her?

If all this sounds familiar, it is. Almost word-for-word the foregoing could describe the western official and media narrative of the Serbian province of Kosovo and Metohija in the late 1990s. Just replace «Rohingya Muslims» with «Albanian Muslims», «Rakhine» with «Serb», «Theravada Buddhist» with «Orthodox Christian».

Of course the Kosovo official narrative was, and remains, almost a total perversion of the truth. In the late 1990s, western intelligence services and their friends in the Islamic world, notably Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, and Turkey, as well as al-Qaeda-linked Islamic «charities», pumped weapons into Kosovo to support armed terrorist groups known as the «Kosovo Liberation Army» (KLA). Headed by kingpins in the Albanian mafia, the KLA attacked Serbian officials and civilians, as well as murdered insufficiently militant Albanians, in a bid to invite a government crackdown which would serve as a pretext for intervention by the international community, meaning the U.S. and NATO, to stop a fictional Serbian genocide of Albanians. As I noted in an August 1998 U.S. Senate report months before supposed massacre that «justified» the NATO attack on Serbia, military action had already been decided upon and awaited only a suitable «trigger»:

«As of this writing, planning for a U.S.-led NATO intervention in Kosovo is now largely in place, while the Clinton Administration’s apparent willingness to intervene has ebbed and flowed on an almost weekly basis. The only missing element appears to be an event – with suitably vivid media coverage – that would make intervention politically salable, even imperative, in the same way that a dithering Administration finally decided on intervention in Bosnia in 1995 after a series of ‘Serb mortar attacks’ took the lives of dozens of civilians – attacks, which, upon closer examination, may in fact have been the work of the Muslim regime in Sarajevo, the main beneficiary of the intervention. [For details, primarily reports from European media, see RPC’s ‘Clinton-Approved Iranian Arms Transfers Help Turn Bosnia into Militant Islamic Base,’ 1/16/97] That the Administration is waiting for a similar ‘trigger’ in Kosovo is increasingly obvious: ‘A senior U.S. Defense Department official who briefed reporters on July 15 noted that «we’re not anywhere near making a decision for any kind of armed intervention in Kosovo right now». He listed only one thing that might trigger a policy change: «I think if some levels of atrocities were reached that would be intolerable, that would probably be a trigger»’ [Washington Post, 8/4/98]. The recent conflicting reports regarding a purported mass grave containing (depending on the report) hundreds of murdered Albanian civilians or dozens of KLA fighters killed in battle should be seen in this light». [from ‘Bosnia II: The Clinton Administration Sets Course for NATO Intervention in Kosovo,’ August 1998]

To note the similarities between official and media about the Rohingya in 2017 and «Kosovars» in 1998-99 is not to say that armed outside intervention against Myanmar is imminent or even in the cards. Nor does it disprove the claim that the Rohingya, or some of them, may indeed be suffering persecution. It is only to suggest that when the usual manipulators in the media and the self-appointed international community get on their genocide high horse, caution is in order. It needs to be asked, what is the other side of the story?

For example, as analyzed by Moon of Alabama:

«Media attention is directed to some minor ethnic violence in Myanmar, the former Burma. The story in the ‘western’ press is of Muslim Rohingya unfairly vilified, chased out and killed by Buddhist mobs and the army in the state of Rakhine near the border to Bangladesh. The ‘liberal’ human interventionists like Human Rights Watch are united with Islamists like Turkey’s President Erdogan in loudly lamenting the plight of the Rohingya.

«That curious alliance also occurred during the wars on Libya and Syria. [JGJ: And in Kosovo.] It is by now a warning sign. Could there be more behind this than some local conflict in Myanmar? Is someone stoking a fire?


«While the ethnic conflict in Rakhine state is very old, it has over the last years morphed into a Jihadist guerilla war financed and led from Saudi Arabia. The area is of geo-strategic interest:

‘Rakhine plays an important part in [the Chinese One Belt One Road Initiative] OBOR, as it is an exit to Indian Ocean and the location of planned billion-dollar Chinese projects—a planned economic zone on Ramree Island, and the Kyaukphyu deep-sea port, which has oil and natural gas pipelines linked with Yunnan Province’s Kunming.’

«Pipelines from the western coast of Myanmar eastwards to China allow hydrocarbon imports from the Persian Gulf to China while avoiding the bottleneck of the Strait of Malacca and disputed parts of the South China Sea.

«It is in ‘Western interest’ to hinder China’s projects in Myanmar. Inciting Jihad in Rakhine could help to achieve that. … A clearly Islamist insurgency was build up in the area. It acts under the name Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) and is led by Ataullah abu Ammar Junjuni, a Jihadist from Pakistan. (ARSA earlier operated under the name Harakah al-Yakin, or Faith Movement.) Ataullah was born into the large Rohingya community of Karachi, Pakistan. … Reuters noted in late 2016 that the Jihadist group is trained, led and financed through Pakistan and Saudi Arabia:

‘A group of Rohingya Muslims that attacked Myanmar border guards in October is headed by people with links to Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, the International Crisis Group (ICG) said on Thursday, citing members of the group. … «Though not confirmed, there are indications [Ataullah] went to Pakistan and possibly elsewhere, and that he received practical training in modern guerrilla warfare», the group said. It noted that Ata Ullah was one of 20 Rohingya from Saudi Arabia leading the group’s operations in Rakhine State. Separately, a committee of 20 senior Rohingya emigres oversees the group, which has headquarters in Mecca, the ICG said.’

«The ARSA Jihadists claim to only attack government forces but civilian Arakanese Buddhists have also been ambushed and massacred. Buddhist hamlets were also burned down».

Finally, it needs to be noted that showing sympathy for Muslim victims, real or fake, has several attractions for western governments and media:

  • It pleases western elites’ friends in Riyadh, Ankara, Islamabad, etc., to see effete post-Christians take the Muslim side in a way none of them would ever stick up for Christians. How nice to see how weak, corrupt, and cowardly the unbelievers are! (How many protests did we hear from our Saudi, Turkish, Pakistani, and other supposed friends about the suffering of Christians in Syria and Iraq at the hands of al-Qaeda and Daesh? For that matter, how much did we hear about it from western governments? When have western governments and media ever demanded that the so-called international community «do something» to save a non-Muslim population – anywhere?)
  • It allows western elites to scrub away the suspicion that somewhere, somehow any hint of concern about Islamic terrorism or Muslim mass migration into Europe is evidence of «racism» and «Islamophobia». Championing persecuted Muslims like the Rohingya and Kosovo Albanians shows the west harbors no such biases.
  • Perhaps most importantly, standing up for allegedly persecuted Muslim minorities allows western governments and media to deflect any blame for the hundreds of thousands – in all likelihood millions – of Muslims killed in the process of «democracy promotion» in majority Muslim countries like Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, and other places, or the many more who would be killed in the process of «bringing freedom» to Iran. Sure, many non-Muslims have also been killed in these noble humanitarian efforts, but their deaths are not politically actionable – no government or terrorist movement will threaten retribution.

Why are the Israelis afraid of the raid on Masyaf? لماذا يخشى «الإسرائيليون» من الغارة على مصياف؟

Why are the Israelis afraid of the raid on Masyaf?

سبتمبر 11, 2017

Written by Nasser Kandil,

There are four warnings launched by four important Israeli newspapers as a result of the raid on Masyaf in conjunction with the qualitative military maneuvers on the northern borders. The writers are among the most prominent Israeli analysts of the military and the strategy affairs Zvi Bar’el, Alex Fishman, Yossi Yosha and the Head of the National Security Council Yaakov Amidror. The warnings were distributed between whether the goal of Israel’s entry to the line of formulating new Syrian position was a justification for the increasing of the Iranian presence and the approaching of Hezbollah from the borders as Bar’el said, or that the appreciation of the self-confidence is exaggerated and led to the current Israeli maneuvers, it is a false confidence if we compare between what has happened in 2006 and what might happen in a future war, or that the maneuvers have depended on a war premise; entitled the ground attack of Hezbollah, while what is probable is that Hezbollah will drive Israel into a war inside Lebanon and Syria as Fishman said. The third warning has been launched by Yossi Yosha, he said if the goal as the military and the security leadership was to prevent the facilities provided to Iran to build military qualitative industries in Syria, then the Israeli commitment to the equation of the deterrence with Hezbollah and not targeting it in Lebanon tells the Iranians “go to Lebanon and build your factories there, we will not target them”, while the Head of the National Security Council Yaakov Amidror said to Hayon the Israeli newspaper: Everything is planned and depended on uncertain premise; that the limits of the response of the Syrian President are to prevent us from flying in the Syrian airspaces, but who will guarantee non-responding?

Reading these analyses which some of them praised the Israeli process for  the non-surrender and the insistence to take the initiative is enough to indicate that Israel is worried, confused, and unconfident of the validity and the effectiveness of what it did or the degree of security which it provides. These readings are enough to say that the process is closer to the expression of despair, frustration, and the inability, but nothing is guaranteed, especially in the light of the Russian ambiguity which all the Israeli analyses agree upon, versus the clarity of the Russian deeds and the open support of the Syrian country to achieve its victories on one hand and to refuse to meet any Israeli demand by restricting the presence of Iran and Hezbollah on the other hand.

The scenario was opened by the Israelis, but this time they are unable to control it, it depends as the analysts say on how will the four parties which stand on the opposite bank “Russia, Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah” behave. They are four parties which the Israelis recognize that they are stronger than Israel in Syria and that the Israeli targeting has annoyed all of them, it was a challenge against Russia, a provocation to Iran, and an attack on Syria as the permanent title is the preparation against Hezbollah. What Israel has done practically before the last moments of the end of the war on Syria was to grant Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran a strong argument to say that it is impossible to ensure the stability of any victory or a solution in Syria without deterring Israel which tampers in this stability. This will receive Russian listening, but it is not necessary for Russia to participate in responding to it, but it is enough to understand that and to see it as a part of its vision to ensure the stability in Syria. Just like that the Israelis open a path that will reach at the end of escalation to open the file of Golan and the Israeli occupation instead of opening the file of the presence of Hezbollah in Syria. Maybe Israel will find itself accompanied with a response to the response in front of an escalating confrontation on the borders that will not be halted by a traditional international resolution to return to disengagement and the role of the forces of Andov, but to launch a path that imposes at least its withdrawal from Golan.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

لماذا يخشى «الإسرائيليون» من الغارة على مصياف؟

سبتمبر 9, 2017

ناصر قنديل

– أربعة تحذيرات أطلقتها أربع صحف «إسرائيلية» مهمة من الغارة على مصياف والتزامن بينها وبين المناورات الحربية النوعية على الحدود الشمالية، والكتّاب هم أبرز محللي «إسرائيل» للشؤون العسكرية والاستراتيجية، تسيفي برئيل واليكس فيشمان ويوسي يهوشاع ورئيس هيئة الأمن القومي يعقوب عميردور. وتوزعت التحذيرات بين أن يكون  دخول «إسرائيل» على خط صياغة الوضع السوري الجديد مبرّراً لزيادة الحضور الإيراني، واقتراب حزب الله من الحدود، كما قال برئيل، وأن يكون التقدير للثقة بالنفس مبالغ به ويؤدي لاسترخاء تصنعه مثل المناورات «الإسرائيلية» الحالية، وهي ثقة زائفة إذا قارنّا ما جرى عام 2006 بما يمكن أن يجري في حرب مقبلة، كما يقول فيشمان مضيفاً، أنّ المناورات ارتكزت على فرضية حرب قوامها هجوم بري لحزب الله، بينما المرجح برأيه ان يستدرج حزب الله «إسرائيل» لحرب داخل لبنان وسورية، أما التحذير الثالث، فقدّمه يهوشاع قائلاً، إذا كان الهدف كما تقول القيادة العسكرية والأمنية هو منع التسهيلات الممنوحة لإيران لبناء صناعات عسكرية نوعية في سورية، فإنّ التزام «إسرائيل» بمعادلة الردع مع حزب الله وعدم استهدافه في لبنان يقول للإيرانيين اذهبوا إلى لبنان لبناء مصانعكم فلن نضربها، أما يعقوب عميردور رئيس هيئة الأمن القومي فيقول لصحيفة «إسرائيل هيوم»، إنّ كلّ شيء مخطط ومبني على فرضية غير أكيدة، وهي أنّ حدود ردّ الرئيس السوري هي منعنا من التحليق في أجواء سورية، ولكن مَن يضمن عدم الردّ؟

– تكفي قراءة هذه التحليلات التي حفلت في بعض سطورها بالإشادة بالعملية «الإسرائيلية»، للدلالة على عدم الاستسلام والإصرار على المبادرة، لتقول إنّ «إسرائيل قلقة ومربكة وغير واثقة من صحة ما قامت به ولا من فعاليته ولا من درجة الأمان التي يوفرها، وأنّ هذه القراءات تكفي للقول إنّ العملية أقرب للتعبير عن اليأس والإحباط والعجز في المقابل عن الصمت، لكن لا شيء مضمون، خصوصاً في ظلّ الغموض الروسي الذي تجمع عليه التحليلات «الإسرائيلية» كلّها، مقابل وضوح الأفعال الروسية بالدعم المفتوح للدولة السورية لتحقيق انتصاراتها من جهة، ولعدم القبول بتلبية أيّ مطالبة «إسرائيلية»، بتقييد حضور إيران وحزب الله.

– السيناريو يفتتحه «الإسرائيليون»، لكنّهم هذه المرة لا يملكون التحكم به، فهو كما يقول المحللون وقف على كيف سيتعامل الأطراف الأربعة الذين يقفون على الضفة المقابلة، روسيا وسورية وإيران وحزب الله، وهي أربعة أطراف يسلّم «الإسرائيليون» بأنها أقوى من «إسرائيل» في سورية، وأنّ الضربة «الإسرائيلية» أزعجتها جميعاً فهي تحدٍّ لروسيا، واستفزاز لإيران، واعتداء على سورية، والعنوان الدائم الاستعداد بوجه حزب الله، فما فعلته «إسرائيل» عملياً قبيل دخول اللحظات الأخيرة من نهاية الحرب في سورية، أن تمنح حزب الله وسورية وإيران حجة قوية للقول إنه يستحيل ضمان استقرار أيّ نصر أو حلّ في سورية من دون ردع «إسرائيل» عن المشاغبة على هذا الاستقرار، وسيلقى هذا إصغاء روسياً، ولن يكون ضرورياً أن تشارك روسيا في الردّ، بل يكفي أنها تتفهّم ذلك وتراه من ضمن رؤيتها لضمان الاستقرار في سورية، وهكذا يفتتح «الإسرائيليون» مساراً سيصل في نهاية نفق التصعيد لفتح ملف الجولان والاحتلال «الإسرائيلي» له بدلاً من فتح ملف وجود حزب الله في سورية، وربما تجد «إسرائيل» نفسها مع ردّ وردّ على الردّ أمام مواجهة متصاعدة على الحدود لا يوقفها قرار دولي تقليدي بالعودة إلى فكّ الاشتباك ودور قوات الإندوف بل إلى إطلاق مسار لا ينتهي بأقلّ من فرض انسحابها من الجولان.

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