مَن يحرص على تجنيب لبنان الحرب: السيد حسن نصرالله أم منتقدوه؟

يوليو 15, 2019

ناصر قنديل

– ظاهرياً يتلبّس منتقدو خطاب السيد حسن نصرالله ثوب الحرص على تجنيب لبنان تداعيات أي تطور دراماتيكي للمواجهة الأميركية الإيرانية، ويعتبرون تهديداته بالدخول على خطها تلميحاً وتصريحاً تعريضاً للبنان للخطر، وتخديماً لمصالح إيرانية على حساب لبنان وأمنه واستقراره. فيقولون، إن اتصالاتهم بالأميركيين ومن خلالها ما يردهم عن نتائج الاتصالات الأميركية بالإسرائيليين، فإن واشنطن وتل أبيب مستعدتان لتحييد لبنان عن أي مواجهة مع إيران إذا استجاب حزب الله لهذه الدعوة بالتحييد، وإن كلام السيد نصرالله وموقفه يسقطان هذه الفرضية ويضعان لبنان في دائرة الاستهداف، ويضيف هؤلاء أنهم نجحوا عبر الاتصال بواشنطن لضمان استعداد أميركي لفتح قناة اتصال مع حزب الله، رغم وجود العقوبات، لكن حزب الله لم يكتفِ بالرفض بل استعمل ذلك للتصعيد بوجه واشنطن.

– ظاهرياً، يبدو هذا الكلام منطقياً، لكن هناك ما هو أهم للكشف عن صدق وطبيعة النيات الأميركية العميقة من مساعي تحييد حزب الله، تكشفها مساعي الوساطة لترسيم حدود لبنان براً وبحراً التي قادها معاون وزير الخارجية الأميركية السابق ديفيد ساترفيلد، الذي تولى حديثاً مهام سفارة بلاده في تركيا، لتقول شيئاً لا علاقة له بما يقوله اللبنانيون الذين يتحدثون عن الحرص على تحييد لبنان من أي مواجهة أميركية إيرانية، ففشل مساعي ساترفيلد بعدما استهلكت وقتاً طويلاً أظهر أن المقصود منها كان تحييد حزب الله عن أي مواجهة إيرانية أميركية، دون أن يطلب من الحزب ذلك، بل بمحاصرته بمناخ لبناني متحفز للحصول على الحقوق اللبنانية من الثروات النفطية، وجعل المستوى الأول في لبنان ينظر بإيجابية للمساعي الأميركية، بحيث لن يتسامح مع أي موقف تصعيدي لحزب الله إذا ما تدهورت الأوضاع على جبهة طهران واشنطن بما يهدّد بالإطاحة بهذه الفرصة اللبنانية الذهبية، لكن التراجع الأميركي المفاجئ بلا مقدّمات عن جهود الوساطة الشكلية، كشف المستور بعدما تيقنت واشنطن من شراكة حزب الله بقرار واعٍ وواضح في أي مواجهة بينها وبين إيران بحسابات تعرف أنها لن تستطيع تغييرها.

– لدى حزب الله مقاربة مخالفة كلياً لما سبق، وهو يعتبر أن كلام السيد حسن نصرالله ترجمة لهذه المقاربة بكل حساباتها وتفاصيلها. فخطة تحييد حزب الله، هي خطة الحرب، وليست خطة الخروج منها وفقاً لرؤية الحزب، والفشل بتحييد حزب الله يعني سقوط خيار الحرب، لأن واشنطن لن تشنّ حرباً على إيران تعرّض أمن «إسرائيل» للاهتزاز، لكنها إذا نجحت بالفوز في الحرب على إيران، بعد النجاح في تحييد حزب الله، وبالتالي ضمان أمن «إسرائيل» أثناء الحرب على إيران، فلن تتردد بالارتداد نحو حزب الله لتدفيعه ثمن انتصاراته على «إسرائيل» وتغيير معادلات الردع التي بناها بوجه القوة الإسرائيلية، بعدما تكون إيران قد هُزمت وتمّ تغيير المناخ المعنوي والنفسي والمادي لظروف خوض الحرب على حزب الله، فيصير تحييد حزب الله وعبره لبنان مجرد تكتيك حربي مؤقت لجدول أعمال الحرب لا يقع في حبائله ولا يصدّقه إلا الأغبياء، الذين يربأ حزب الله بنفسه وباللبنانيين أن يُحسَبوا من ضمنهم.

– في حسابات حزب الله، معادلة واضحة لقوانين الحرب والسلم في المنطقة عنوانها، أن أمن «إسرائيل» هو الذي يدفع أميركا لخوض الحروب وهو الذي يجعلها تعيد النظر بخيارات الحروب، وأنه كما في الحرب على سورية، في الحرب على إيران، سؤال الأميركيين الأول، هو هل يرد احتمال أن يقوم حزب الله بتعريض أمن «إسرائيل» للخطر، فإن كان الجواب إيجابياً عدلت واشنطن عن الحرب وإن كان العكس مضت بها وإليها، وفي حسابات حزب الله أن واشنطن التي شكّل التحريض الإسرائيلي أحد الأسباب في حملتها العدائية لإيران نظراً لما للتأثير الإسرائيلي على معادلات القوى الناخبة في واشنطن، ستتأثر بما تتلقاه من الرأي العام الإسرائيلي حول خيار الحرب على إيران، وبالتالي فإن تهديد الأمن الإسرائيلي بأكلاف عائدات الحرب وجعل ذلك قضية الرأي العام الأولى في كيان الاحتلال يتكفّل بجعل التحريض الإسرائيلي لواشنطن معكوساً، فبدلاً من معادلة «اضربوا إيران كمصدر خطر على أمن إسرائيل كي نقف معكم»، يصير «لا تغامروا بأمننا في حرب مع إيران سندفع نحن ثمنها إن كنتم تريدون أن نقف معكم».

– معادلة حزب الله أنه لن يكون محيداً ومعه لبنان إذا قررت واشنطن الحرب على إيران، إلا مؤقتاً ضمن خطة تكتيكية للفوز بالحرب بكل مراحلها، ومنها مرحلة القضاء على حزب الله بعد الفوز بالحرب على إيران، وأن طريق منع الحرب على لبنان يبدأ من منع الحرب على إيران، وطريق ذلك واضح، جعل أمن «إسرائيل» في كفة موازية للحرب على إيران، وهو ما يضمنه التهديد بدخول حزب الله على خط الحرب، الذي يضمن على الأقل وبكل تأكيد تحفيز الرأي العام الإسرائيلي لرفض المغامرة بالحرب، فعدم الحياد من الحرب هو طريق تحييد لبنان من الخطر.

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‘Hysterical and Stupid’: Kushner Reveals His Attitude Towards the Palestinians

Wayne Madsen
July 12, 2019
Image result for ‘Hysterical and Stupid’: Kushner Reveals His Attitude Towards the Palestinians

Jared Kushner, Donald Trump’s son-in-law and the person Trump appointed to broker a Middle East peace agreement recently called Palestinians “hysterical and stupid.” That is particularly galling language coming from a notorious New Jersey, New York, and Maryland slumlord and the son of a federally convicted criminal. Kushner’s father and real estate mogul, Charles Kushner, spent fourteen months in prison after being convicted of tax fraud and witness tampering, among other crimes. Jared Kushner believes his father was wrongly convicted and imprisoned. But the wunderkind son-in-law of Trump has no problem in maintaining the status quo in the Middle East, one that has led to the large-scale incarceration of the people of the Gaza Strip in virtual desert ghetto.

Mr. Kushner does not have the business acumen to run a New York City sandwich cart, let alone a major foreign policy initiative like a final Middle East peace agreement. Such a concordat has eluded a every US president since the creation of Israel in 1948. Kushner’s real estate bankruptcies are legendary, and they have resulted in him and his father panhandling for loan relief financing from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, and China, among other countries.

In the wake of Kushner’s “Peace to Prosperity” plan unveiled at a workshop in Bahrain in June of this year, government officials around the world reacted with an almost-unanimous thumbs down. The Bahrain conference more resembled a meeting of potential investors in one of Kushner’s real estate scams. The Palestinians, claiming that to present an economic plan for the Palestinian territories prior to a political settlement, boycotted the Bahrain conclave. Under the “Kushner Plan,” Gaza was to become a tourist resort with transport routes through Israel to the West Bank. No mention was made of the crippling Israeli and Egyptian blockades imposed on the densely populated Gaza enclave of 1.8 million people. Kushner displayed his utter ignorance of geo-politics, history, and diplomacy when he said Palestinians would reap a financial whirlwind of real estate development and tourism investment money if “there’s not a fear of people doing terrorism.” Doing terrorism? In Kushner’s pampered rich kid myopic view of the world, “doing terrorism” is like “doing lunch” or “doing a Broadway show.”

Participating in Kushner’s gabfest, US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin claimed that Kushner’s roll-out was like a “hot IPO,” an initial public offering of shares in a company. Seasoned Middle East experts, including diplomats and scholars, were far less enthusiastic, with one likening Kushner’s conference to a Monty Python sketch.

Kushner also lambasted the Palestinian leadership for saying “crazy things.” The son-in-law of the man who, on a daily basis, says and tweets “crazy things” believes that it is “crazy” for Palestinian leaders to condemn Israeli expansion into East Jerusalem, the West Bank, and the Golan Heights. In fact, “crazy” was Trump ordering the moving of the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, shuttering the US Consulate General in Jerusalem that served as the de facto US mission in Palestine, cutting off all US economic assistance to the Palestinians, closing the Palestinian diplomatic mission in Washington, and recognizing Israeli sovereignty over Syria’s Golan Heights.

Kushner called the Palestinians “stupid and hysterical.” However, nothing exemplifies hysterical and stupid more than Kushner family friend Binyamin Netanyahu, who once stood before the United Nations General Assembly and displayed a cartoon drawing of a bomb to “prove” that Iran was nearing development of a nuclear weapon. Netanyahu’s histrionics before the world assembly was not the first time he resorted to gimmickry and lying in order to tick off a list of favorite Zionist talking points.

Kushner does not appreciate the hyper-hysterical nature of Israel and its supporters, of which he is one. The Boycott, Divestment, and Sanction (BDS) movement targeting Israel’s racist and expansionist policies has resulted in hysterical extreme measures aimed at undercutting constitutional and other inherent freedoms of speech in other countries. These anti-free speech actions have been advanced by Kushner’s friends and colleagues and include twenty-eight American states enacting legislation that bans individuals and companies supporting BDS from receiving state government contracts. Israel’s intelligence service, Mossad, is actively working to disrupt the global BDS movement, including the operations of the Palestine Solidarity Campaign (PSC).

The anti-BDS campaign includes Mossad collecting intelligence on BDS operations in foreign countries and placing BDS leaders and supporters on INTERPOL and EUROPOL watch lists. Kushner’s Zionist friends have even spoken of Israel filing lawsuits against BDS organizations and individuals abroad. There was little surprise when Mossad’s anti-BDS activities in the United States were linked to the now-defunct Israeli private intelligence firm PSY-Group and Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign.

Kushner can whine all day long about Palestinians being “hysterical.” No one is more hysterical and hypocritical than Kushner and his Orthodox Jewish cabal that includes the dodgy Chabad movement – which has been tied into everything from drug and human organ trafficking to tax evasion and money laundering, as well as the 2020 presidential campaign of New Jersey Democratic Senator Cory Booker. No sooner had New England Patriots football owner and Trump Mar-a-Lago club member Robert Kraft beat a criminal charge of soliciting prostitution from a Florida massage parlor employing Chinese indentured employees, he donated his $1 million Genesis Prize – Israel’s version of the Nobel Prize – to the anti-BDS movement. That kind of money would have paid for quite a lot of $57 “sessions” at Kraft’s favorite, but now closed, Florida massage parlor. Even though Kraft was dumb enough to get caught on video tape in a law enforcement sting on illegal prostitution activities, Kushner claims it is the Palestinians who are “stupid.”

Recently, Kushner’s friends in Israel and Germany forced the resignation of Dr. Peter Schäfer, a foremost scholar of Judaic Studies, as director of Berlin’s Jewish Museum. Using Inquisition-like tactics, Schäfer stood accused by Israel supporters of backing the BDS movement by tweeting a link to a letter signed by 240 Jewish and Israeli scholars opposing a bill passed by the German parliament that linked the BDS movement to anti-Semitism. The campaign against Dr. Schäfer was centered on the activities of an Israel-based organization called NGO Monitor. The group, which is nothing more than a cipher for Mossad, targets international non-governmental organizations tagged with being supportive of the Palestinians or the BDS movement.

Under pressure from such anti-democratic forces as NGO Monitor; its Geneva-based companion, UN Watch; the American Jewish Committee; and similar repugnant pressure organizations, the freedom of speech rights of pro-Palestine activists have been severely hampered by actions of the governments of Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Australia, Canada, and other nations.

Mr. Kushner and his friends who gathered in Bahrain for his real estate development (land theft) prospectus seminar would trick the world into believing that it is the Palestinians who are “hysterical.” When international supporters of the Palestinians decide to hit the Israelis where it hurts the most – their wallets – all one can hear from the offices and board rooms of Tel Aviv, West Jerusalem, Haifa, Ashkelon, Eilat, Ramat Gan, New York, and other centers of Israeli commerce and intrigue is loud wailing and promises to “get even.” And Kushner accuses the Palestinians of being “hysterical.”

In fact, the Palestinians have been quite measured in response to Israel’s overt and covert campaigns against them and their inalienable rights. Since Trump and Kushner launched their diplomatic, political, and economic warfare against Palestine, the State of Palestine has been recognized by the International Atomic Energy Agency and Colombia; Italy voted for a UN Security Council for a resolution that opposed the US movement of its embassy to Jerusalem; the UN’s Group of 77 (G77) developing nations invited Palestine to chair the group’s meeting during 2019; Spain’s Josep Borell, who is pro-Palestinian and tough on Israel, was named the next Foreign Affairs Commissioner of the European Union; and former US President Jimmy Carter called on the United States to recognize Palestinian sovereignty. These small but significant advances on behalf of the Palestinians were achieved as a result of Palestine’s commitment to diplomacy, not the hysteria practiced by Kushner and his friends in Israel, as well as by pro-Israel embeds found throughout the Trump administration.

Sayyed Nasrallah Confident of Victory: I Have Big Hope that We Will Pray in Al-Quds! -UPDATED

July 13, 2019

Marwa Haidar

Stressing that the nation is witnessing the era of victories, Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah voiced confidence that the resistance will deal the Zionist entity a terrible defeat in the future war, voicing big hope that he will be one of those who will pray in Al-Quds.

In an exclusive interview with Al-Manar, Sayyed Nasrallah called on Israeli officials no to boast over their saying that the Zionist forces will “return Lebanon to Stone Age”.

On the thirteenth anniversary of July war in 2006, Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that the resistance today is more powerful than before; presenting its developed capabilities which he said will bring the Zionist entity to the “verge of vanishing”.Image result for Sayyed Nasrallah Confident of Victory:

Reiterating his well-known saying that ‘Israel’ is weaker than a spider web, Sayyed Nasrallah said that the Israeli enemy has failed to rebuild trust in its military capabilities, stressing that the Israeli commanders fear the resistance and don’t dare to start a war with Lebanon.

In a move that raised eyebrows upon the Zionist entity, Sayyed Nasrallah presented a map of occupied Palestine. The map showed dozens of Israeli targets to be hit by Hezbollah in any future war.

His eminence stressed that the Israeli coast which includes many strategic sites is under Hezbollah’s fire.

“Hezbollah at minimum is capable of inflicting huge destruction upon the Zionist entity.”

Sayyed Nasrallah meanwhile, said that Hezbollah fighters have become expert and well-prepared for the invasion of Galilee, noting that the resistance leadership has prepared several scenarios for such move.

On the other hand, he described as failed the summit which took place in Bahrain last month, stressing that the US President Donald Trump’s so-called ‘deal of the century’ is doomed to failure.

In this context, Sayyed Nasrallah noted that the Palestinian refugees reject to cede their land or to be naturalized.

Concerning the Lebanese borders demarcation, Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that the issue is the responsibility of the Lebanese state, voicing support to the government in such battle with the Zionist entity.

His eminence described what happened in Syria up till now as a great victory, noting that the Syrian state is recovering, but noting that there are other issues that are still not solved.

On Hezbollah presence in Syria, Sayyed Nasrallah said that the resistance movement has reduced its troop presence, noting that redeployment can be made when needed.

Hezbollah S.G. ruled out confrontation between Iran and the US, noting that Washington knows very well that the war with the Islamic Republic costs highly.

Sayyed Nasrallah also warned that such a war between Iran and the US will have dangerous repercussion on the entire region, including Saudi Arabia, UAE and the Zionist entity.

His eminence meanwhile, revealed that Ansarullah revolutionary movement processes missiles that can reach the entire Saudi and Emirati territories, but noted that the Yemeni group only wants the war to stop.

On the Lebanese local developments, Sayyed Nasrallah reiterated Hezbollah’s call for calm, referring to the shooting which targeted the convoy of a Lebanese minister in Mount Lebanon earlier this month.

Sayyed Nasrallah also said that Hezbollah will go ahead with counter-corruption campaign.

His eminence stressed meanwhile, that in face of US sanctions and blacklisting of Hezbollah lawmakers and officials, the resistance’s only choice is steadfastness.

‘Deterrence Balance’

Sayyed Nasrallah started the interview by congratulating al those who contributed to the divine victory “on top of which are the martyrs’ families, the injured and all the elements of the golden tripartite: the army, the resistance and the people.”Image result for Sayyed Nasrallah Confident of Victory:

His eminence said that deterrence equations set by the resistance with the Zionist entity since July war in 2006 have been consolidated, stressing that the “security which we witness in Lebanon nowadays is made by the Lebanese people themselves, thanks to their unity.”

Sayyed Nasrallah said that throughout 13 years and despite all pressures on the resistance, Hezbollah managed to develop its capabilities in all means.

“We have game-changing offensive weapons, along with human capabilities represented by Radwan Force and Al-Abbas Brigades (elite forces).”

“Our weapons have been developed in both quality and quantity, we have precision missiles and drones,” Sayyed Nasrallah said, stressing that Israeli commanders fear such capabilities.

The resistance leader did not give a clear answer if Hezbollah has anti-aircraft missiles.

“Who said we have (such weapon) and who said we don’t have, in this regard we adopt policy based on constructive ambiguity.”

‘Vulnerable Israeli Home Front’

Talking about the Israeli weak points, Sayyed Nasrallah said that Israeli commanders failed to find solution to the issue of its home front’s vulnerability.

“This front was detached from any war. However, July war took the battle into the Israeli home front. The resistance is more capable today to target and inflict losses upon the Israeli home front.”

All the Israeli attempts to rebuild trust in the Israeli home front have failed, Sayed Nasrallah said, noting that the Israeli military had staged in the latest years so many drill.

“But the Israeli enemy acknowledges that its human capabilities have deteriorated, and all know that the Israeli air force can’t make it alone in any war.”

His eminence referred to the Israeli threat of ‘returning Lebanon to the Stone Age’.

“I advise Israeli commanders to avoid war rhetoric since such rhetoric underestimates Lebanon.”

In this context, Sayyed Nasrallah reiterated his well-known saying which he announced in the southern town of Bint Jbeil in 2000: ‘Israel’ is weaker than a spider web.’

“Today I’m a firmer believer of this saying,” Sayyed Nasrallah stressed.

The Map

Image result for Sayyed Nasrallah Confident of Victory:

Answering a question about the Israeli targets which would be hit in any coming war, Sayyed Nasrallah held a map showing the occupied Palestinian territories.السيد نصر الله: اي حرب جديدة ستضع اسرائيل على حافة الزوال

“The entire ‘Israeli’ north is under the resistance’s fire and the most strategic area is the ‘Israeli’ coast,” he said.

“The 70‐km long ‘Israeli’ coast starting from Netanya and ending by Ashdod is under the resistance fire, this area includes the most strategic Israeli sites (Ben Gurion airport, arms depots, petrochemical plants, Tel Aviv and Ashdod ports),” he elaborated.

In this context, Sayyed Nasrallah affirmed that the Israeli enemy today doesn’t dare to carry out any strike against Lebanon.

“Hezbollah at minimum is capable to inflict huge destruction on the Zionist entity. Our fighters have become expert and well-prepared for the invasion of Galilee, we have several scenarios in this regards.

On the other hand Sayyed Nasrallah ruled out a war with the Zionist entity in the near future: “Such war will put the Israelis on the verge of vanishing.”

‘We’ll Pray in Al-Quds’

Asked if he is confident of the victory in any upcoming war with the Zionist entity, Sayyed Nasrallah said: “I’m certain of the victory, God is with us.”

Marmal Asked Sayyed Nasrallah if he believes that liberation of Palestine will be achieved by his generation, his children’s generation or by grandchildren’s generation

Answering this question Sayyed Nasrallah said: “The ages are in the hand of Allah, but based on logic, I have big hope that we will pray in Al-Quds.”

‘Deal of the Century’

Noting that the Zionist entity relies on Western support and Arab states’ collaboration, Sayyed Nasrallah said the ‘deal of the century’ is doomed to failure since it lacks factors of success

“The US has fired the last bullet at the ‘deal of the century’ by recognizing Al-Quds as the Israeli capital.”

“They (US and allies) won’t achieve their goals because of the united Palestinian stance towards the ‘deal of the century’, Iran’s support and Syria’s victory.”

In this regard, Sayyed Nasrallah noted that no Arab state can bear the repercussions of the ‘deal of the century since the deal means the explicit abandoning of the nation’s holy sites. He also cited media reports which said that quoted Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner’s acknowledgment that the Bahrain summit had failed.

He pointed to huge pressures exerted by the US administration on the Palestinians over the ‘deal of the century’.

Regarding settling the Palestinian refugees, Sayyed Nasrallah said the issue “is neither related to Trump nor to Kushner, it’s related to the countries which are hosting the refugees.”

“Palestinian refugees in Lebanon refuse ceding their land as well as their settling.”

Border Demarcation

On the issue of demarcation of Lebanese land and maritime borders, Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that Hezbollah stands after the Lebanese government and its role is only supportive, pointing to the big role of Speaker Nabih Berri in this regard.

Related imageHis eminence noted that the talks on border demarcation are obstructed because the Zionist entity refuses Lebanese government’s insistence that the negotiation should be under the auspices of the United and the Nations and that the US takes the mediator role.

“If the talks are under the auspices of the US and not the UN, then Washington will exert all its efforts to meet the Israeli demands,” Sayyed Nasrallah warned.

His eminence also stressed the importance of discussing the land border in parallel with the issue of maritime border, noting that Speaker Berri insists on relating the two issues.

“When it comes to our Lebanese land we say this is our territory and the Israeli enemy won’t dare to get into it.”

‘Syria Victory’

Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that what has happened in Syria “is a great victory for the Axis of Resistance and a terrible defeat for the other camp.”

He said that the Syrian state is recovering, but noted that there have been some stalling issues including Idlib and east of Euphrates River along with the political settlement.

He noted that the Syrian government hasn’t requested Hezbollah’s engagement in the battle taking place in Idlib.

On the relation with Russia regarding the presence in Syria, Sayyed Nasrallah said the the Lebanese resistance movement deals with Russia as a friend, but stressed that the coordination only takes place with the Syrian defense ministry.

Answering a question on Hezbollah’s military presence in Syria, Sayyed Nasrallah said that the resistance has reduced its troop presence in the war-torn country, noting that “when it’s needed” Hezbollah can make some redeployment there.

Commenting on reports on Iran’s withdrawal from Syria, Sayyed Nasrallah said such move is not in Russia’s interest.

Hezbollah S.G. meanwhile, said that the Zionist entity always carries out strikes in Syria; noting that the latest attack was similar to others which targeted non-strategic targets.

However, Sayyed Nasrallah warned the Israeli enemy of taking risk by striking Syria. He addressed Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu as saying: “Do whatever you want… Iran won’t withdraw from Syria.”

Meanwhile, his eminence revealed that regular meetings always take place with Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad.

“I always meet President Bashar Al-Assad but I don’t say the time of such meetings due to security reasons.”

On the other hand, Sayyed Nasrallah reiterated a previous threat that if any member of Hezbollah is killed in Syria, the resistance will retaliate in Lebanon.

“This equation is still working.”

Noting that the situation will change when the S-300 missiles will become operational in Syria, Sayyed Nasrallah warned the Israeli enemy against “playing with the verge of abyss.”

“If the Israeli enemy carries out an unbearable strike in Syria, the Syrian leadership then may have other calculations.”

US, Iran Standoff

Stressing that Iran will not start a war with the US, Sayyed Nasrallah ruled out a similar move by Washington, saying that the White House knows very well that such move has a high cost.

Sayyed Nasrallah noted here that Trump relies on economic pressure on Iran.

However, Hezbollah S.G. did not rule out that events may escalate between the two sides, noting meanwhile that both Iran and the US will work to contain any escalation.

Referring to Iran’s downing of US spy drone, Sayyed Nasrallah dismissed Trump’s allegations that he stopped Iran strike after he was told that such strike would kill 150 people.

His eminence revealed that what really stopped the US strike on Iran is a message delivered from Tehran to the US through a third party.

“The message said that if the US strikes any Iranian target, Iran will hit US targets,” Sayyed Nasrallah said.

Meanwhile, Sayyed Nasrallah said that Iran won’t stage direct talks with the US, noting that this issue is agreed upon by all Iranian officials.

He said that the Iranians are open to all international efforts aimed at finding solution to the nuclear issue, but that Tehran insists that the US has to lift sanctions first.

On the possibility of having dialogue between Iran and regional countries, Sayyed Nasrallah said this move is interest of the entire region, and that the Islamic Republic ready to such step.

Asked about Hezbollah’s stance of dialogue between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Sayyed Nasrallah said that although Lebanon was hurt by the Saudis, we don’t reject such move.

“Even the Yemenis, who have been for years crushed by the Saudis, don’t reject dialogue between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Just one side fully rejects this step: Netanyahu.”

Meanwhile, Sayyed Nasrallah warned that if a war breaks out between Iran and the US, then no country will be safe.

“Any state that will participate in the war on Iran will pay high price,” Sayyed Nasrallah threatened, referring to the Zionist entity, Saudi Arabia and UAE, noting that the Axis of Resistance won’t keep mum in case of war.

Yemen

Sayyed Nasrallah said that Yemeni revolutionary forces are capable of widening the targeted area by their drone and missile attacks.

“Yemenis can hit any target across Saudi Arabia and UAE, but they don’t want escalation. All what they want is for this war to stop.”

Local Politics

Commenting on the shooting which targeted the convoy of minister Saleh al-Gharib earlier this month, Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that Hezbollah seeks de-escalation, lashing out at those who accuse Hezbollah of seeking discord within Druze.

“The incident was grave, and we were part of the de-escalation attempts. Accusations that Hezbollah seeks discord within Druze sect are immoral.”

“Local stability serves our interest. It’s normal to stand by our ally,” referring to Head of Druze Lebanese Democratic Party, Tal Arslan, whom minister Al-Gharib belongs to his party.

Al-Gharib’s two bodyguards were killed during the shooting which took place in Mount Lebanon on June 30.

On the relation between Hezbollah and the Head of Druze Progressive Socialist Party (PSP), Walid Jumblatt, Sayyed Nasrallah said the dispute between the two sides is great since 2005.

Sayyed Nasrallah elaborated on the disputed issues between Hezbollah and the PSP, stressing that Jumblatt’s remarks that Shebaa Farms are not Lebanese is fault.

Hezbollah S.G. meanwhile, stressed that the relation with President Michel Aoun and Free Patriotic Movement’s Head MP Gibran Bassil is excellent.

Commenting on US’ move to put Hezbollah MPs, Mohammad Raad Amin Sherri, along with Hezbollah senior official, Wafiq Safa, on sanctions blacklist, Sayyed Nasrallah said that Hezbollah officials congratulate such moves when they take place.

His eminence dismissed US envoy to Iran, Brian Hook’s remarks that sanctions on Iran have been putting pressure on Hezbollah.

“The sanctions have impact yes, but we are people of “Humiliation… Never” and we have several options to deal with the issue.”

Sayyed Nasrallah then praised resistance sacrifices, saying: “The resistance by a small number of martyrs is making honorable life for a whole nation.”

Addressing the resistance crowds who have been tweeting and posting on social media ahead of the interview, Sayyed Nasrallah said: “I love you and I feel proud of you.”

His eminence then concluded the interview by stressing that “the era of victory has come!”

Source: Al-Manar English Website

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Sayyed Nasrallah: Trump Seeks to Open Channels with Hezbollah, “Israel” Could be Wiped in Any Regional War

Zeinab Essa

Hezbollah Secretary General His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah advised the “Israeli” leaders not to talk any more about returning Lebanon to the Stone Age.

In a Friday interview with Al-Manar channel, Sayyed Nasrallah congratulated the Lebanese celebrating 13 years on the Divine Victory, the 2006 July war with “Israel”.

Hezbollah Surprises to “Israel”

To the “Israelis”, His Eminence sent a clear message: “In the next war with “Israel” we will have surprises in land, air and sea.”

“The resistance is able attack the whole “Israeli” entity, reaching Eilat,” he  reiterated, noting that he is  “confident of victory” and that ““Israel” is weaker than spider-web.”

Sayyed Nasrallah further stated: “Since 2006, Lebanon has been living in a state of security that the Lebanese have created by their unity.”

“The resistance is stronger than ever,” His Eminence declared, explaining:  “In 2006, our offensive capability was limited, but today we have an offensive force at the infantry level armed with qualitative weapons.”

As His Eminence moved to unveil some of the Islamic Resistance capabilities, he sent a clear message to “Israel’s” military, leaders and settlers. “The Zionist entity would be brought to the verge of vanishing, and it knows this.”

“We have a number of missiles larger than 2006 and we have precise missiles that we did not have in 2006. We also have a large and powerful branch of UAVs,” Sayyed Nasrallah unveiled,

Presenting a map of occupied Palestinian territories, Sayyed Nasrallah uncovered some potential targets in any coming war. “The resistance is able to target the entire coastal strip area with a depth of 20 km and a length of 60 to 70 km in which there are government centers, nuclear plants and ports,” he announced.

Sayyed Nasrallah also asked: “Can the “Israeli” entity survive or endure our capabilities?”

According to the Resistance leader, “The Zionists said that if the tanks of ammonia were hit in Haifa, the number of casualties is very large.”

“The “Israeli” will refrain from launching a raid on Lebanon because he is afraid of the resistance,” he viewed, noting that “the resistance is capable of bringing “Israel” back to the Stone Age by destroying the area that is under the range of our missiles.”

On the same level, the Resistance Leader predicted that “any war will be bigger than the 2006 war for “Israel” and it will put it on the brink of extinction.”

In parallel, His Eminence reiterated that “the invasion of Galilee is part of the war plan.”

Moreover, he highlighted that “due to the state of deterrence, it is ruled out that the “Israeli” will initiate a war.”

Answering a question on the effect of his death on Hezbollah, Sayyed Nasrallah said: “The resistance is not limited to a person; it works as an institution and every person has an influence.”

Praying At Al-Aqsa

On the same level, the Resistance Leader highlighted that  “Life and death are in the hands of God,” noting that “yet logic points to me that I will personally pray at Al-Aqsa mosque.”

Expressing confidence of Hezbollah’s ability to “achieve victory in any coming confrontation,” Sayyed Nasrallah shed light on some “Israeli” failures.

“The confidence of the army leaders in their forces and the military leadership in the their political leadership and vice versa is missing,” he emphasized, declaring that Hezbollah has an infantry force that possesses special capabilities.

Back to 2006, His Eminence explained that “The July war transferred the battle to the enemy’s territory,” stressing that “ Today, the resistance is stronger than any other time in its ability to target the enemy’s home front.”

“The “Israeli” admits that there is significant decline in the strength and power of their ground forces,” he confirmed, reminding that “ the confidence crisis within the enemy as a result of Gaza failure has deepened.”

Once again, Sayyed Nasrallah said: “The resistance is stronger than ever despite the sanctions and it improved its capabilities greatly over the past 13 years, and this has been acknowledged by the “Israelis”.”

“The “Israeli” talk about returning Lebanon to the Stone Age is a mockery and underestimation of Lebanon,” reminding that Hezbollah  can target entire “Israel” with its firepower

To the friend and enemy, Hezbollah’s Secretary General Message was clear: “I am convinced that “Israel” is weaker than a spider’s web and I have scientific evidence to that.”

On the importance of the resistance media, he stressed that “it is very influential in making results and events.”

Deal of Century will Fail

Moving to another title,  Sayyed Nasrallah expected that “the “deal of the century” will fail.”

“One of the most important elements of the deal of the century’s failure is Al-Quds,” he added, noting that “The global arrogance fired a bullet of mercy on the deal of the century when it considered that Occupied Al-Quds is the capital of the occupying entity.”

Moreover, His Eminence hailed “both the unity of the Palestinian position and the steadfastness of Iran that formed important factors in front of the deal of the century’s implementation.”

“There is not a single Palestinian who will agree to a deal in which the Christian and Muslim holy sites of al-Quds will be transferred to Israel,” Sayyed Nasrallah stated.

“The martyrs who fell in Syria and the victory in Iraq are from the factors that prevent the implementation of the deal of the century,” he said, pointing out that “the Yemeni sacrifices and the strength of the resistance axis are among the main reasons for not implementing the deal of the century.”

In addition, Sayyed Nasrallah viewed that “the absence of a strong Arab state capable of carrying the deal of the century on its back prevents from its implementation.”

Demacratation and More

On a similar note, he was clear enough: “No one can impose naturalization on Lebanon if there is Lebanese consensus against it.”

Commenting the talk of demarcation between Lebanon and the apartheid “Israeli” entity, Sayyed Nasrallah cautioned that “If the sponsor of the demarcation negotiations is the American, forget about it.”

“The term of land demarcation is wrong because demarcating is already done,” he explained, noting that “Our land borders are demarcated and there is a technical dispute on some meters.”

He further highlighted that “Lebanese House Speaker Nabih Berri insists that land and sea demarcation coincide starting from Naqoura because it clarifies maritime borders.”

“If we define our maritime borders, the occupying entity will not dare to breach them,” His Eminence vowed, noting that “Lebanon is not weak, but some Lebanese are weak.”

According to him, “There is no logic in discussing maritime borders without settling the land borders. There are oil companies that are ready to work in the areas determined by Lebanon within its territory.”

Presence in Syria

On the Syrian front, Sayyed Nasrallah announced that his party has “redeployed and downsized our forces in Syria due to the improved security situation.”

He also clarified that “decreasing our numbers in Syria has nothing to do with American sanctions and we’re ready to return in large numbers if needed,” noting that Hezbollah hasn’t evacuated complete areas in Syria and we are still in all the areas where we were.

“The time has not come for Hezbollah’s full withdrawal from Syria,” he added, pointing out that “The party we are coordinating with in Syria is the Syrian military leadership, not the Russian one.”

Commenting on the recent “Israeli” strikes on Syria, His Eminence stressed that “it hasn’t targeted against important places. The result of the “Israeli” bombardment of Syria is “nothing” in military logic.”

“I do not think there is a return in Syria, and there is still the issue of East Euphrates and Idlib only,” His Eminence stressed, pointing out that “if something new emerged, we can easily transfer troops from Lebanon to Syria.”

Praising the fact that “there is a great coordination between the Russian and the Iranian in Syria, Sayyed Nasrallah warned that ““Israel’s” strikes will not lead to expelling Iran from Syria and they are risky for “Israel”.”

“Iran will not withdraw from Syria,” he clearly stated, noting that “the equation of responding to “Israel” if it targeted any Hezbollah element in Syria is still valid.”

Sayyed Nasrallah further explained some aspects of the Syrian refrain from responding to “Israel”, “The priority in Syria is to confront armed groups and Syria is facing “Israeli” aggression through air defenses.”

Meanwhile, he urged the Russians “to prevent the Zionist air force from targeting Syria.”

“The Syrians are training on the S300 and when they are ready to use it, the situation will be different,” His Eminence elaborated, uncovering that “[President Bashar] Al-Assad and I always meet, but won’t reveal any dates due to security.”

Sayyed Nasrallah also said: “[Our] growth in human numbers has been very large. Our numbers have doubled and there was development also out in the field, especially inside Syria. The ground forces are trained at a high level.”

Trump Wants to Talk to Us

Uncovering that Trump’s administration is seeking to open channels of communication with Hezbollah, he highlighted that “Trump’s administration has designated 3rd parties to reach out to Hezbollah in Lebanon and is dying for Iran to negotiate with him. It won’t happen.”

US-Iran, and The Talk of War

Ruling out that America might launch a war on Iran, Sayyed Nasrallah commented on the latest escalation between Iran and the US: “Strikes and counter-strikes might happen, but the two parties will seek to contain the situation.”

“I rule out that America heads to war against Iran and America knows that the war is expensive,” he said, pointing out that “the Iranians sent a message via a third nation on the day the drone was downed, saying they would retaliate against US targets in the event of a US strike. The Iranian message arrived shortly before Trump’s decision, and the latter’s position was to “stop the response”.”

However, His Eminence reiterated that “Iran will not negotiate with America directly and this is the position of all officials in Iran.”

“Who will pay the price for a war on Iran? “Israel” and Al Saud?” he wondered, warning that “Iran will readily bomb “Israel” if war breaks out against it. “Israel” won’t be aside in any coming war. In any war on Iran, the whole region will ignite. “Israel” might even be annihilated.”

Responding to those betting on the sanctions, Sayyed Nasrallah stated: “Iran will not kneel, but these sanctions will push the Iranians to strengthen their domestic production.”

“Iran is now open to any dialogue with Saudi Arabia, but the problem is in the other side, which has settled its options,” he declared, pointing out that  “It is our responsibility in the region to prevent the US war on Iran because everyone agrees that it is destructive. What prevents the US from going to war is that its interests in the entire region are in danger.”

“Is it in the interest of the region to go to a devastating war? Is it in the interest of the UAE to have a devastating war in the Gulf? Certainly they will not accept it. Does the Saudi have an interest in the war as he knows that they will not be able to confront Iran? What will be left of UAE’s glass towers if war breaks out? If the UAE was destroyed when the war broke out, would that be in the interests of the Emirate rulers and people?” His Eminence asked.

Sayyed Nasrallah went on to say that “Any country that will be a partner in the war against Iran or offer its territory to attack Iran will pay the price, noting that “a threat to destroy Saudi Arabia and the UAE cannot deter the US from waging a war on Iran, but rather the threat to attack its forces in the region and “Israel”.”

On the Yemeni front,  the Resistance leader hinted that “Ansarullah can bomb most airports in Saudi Arabia and many facilities in UAE. Ansarullah are escalating gradually. It seems that UAE understands this and is reassessing, but not clear if full or partial withdrawal Yemen. They lost we welcome their re-assessment, and we call on Saudi to do the same.”

On the new US sanctions on Hezbollah, Sayyed Nasrallah said: “The new issue in the US sanctions is enlisting two deputies as this is considered an abuse of the parliament.”

“The enemy has two choices: either war, and it’s not capable of it or sanctions, but in return we are more confident ,” he added.

To Continue Fighting Corruption

Moving to the internal arena, Sayyed Nasrallah announced that “Hezbollah will continue the long and difficult battle of corruption on the internal front.”

Meanwhile, he urged calmness after Qabrshmoun incident announcing Hezbollah’s standing by its ally MP Talal Arslan.

“From the very first moments after the Qabrshmoun incident, we started our contacts to pacify the situation,”Sayyed Nasrallah revealed, reiterating that “stability in Lebanon is in our interest.”

In addition, he refused  claims that Hezbollah “wants to blow up the Druze arena” describing them as “immoral.”

Describing Arslan’s call for referring the incident to the Judicial Council as “logical,” Sayyed Nasrallah said “the decision is in our ally’s hand and we stand by him.”

His Eminence further praised Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s wise decision to postpone the latest cabinet session.

“We are against the suspension of the cabinet,” he said.

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Nasrallah says all of Israel is within range of Hezbollah’s missiles

Press TV
The video grab shows Secretary General of the Lebanese Hezbollah resistance movement Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah during an interview with Al-Manar television on July 12, 2019.
The video grab shows Secretary General of the Lebanese Hezbollah resistance movement Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah during an interview with Al-Manar television on July 12, 2019.

The secretary general of the Lebanese Hezbollah resistance movement says all of Israel is within the range of the missiles of the group, adding that the resistance movement is stronger than ever despite Western sanctions.

Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah made the remarks during a televised interview with Hezbollah’s al-Manar television on Friday on the occasion of the 13th anniversary of the Second Lebanon War in 2006.

“Once we said that we could strike targets south of Haifa. Today, we can say that if Israel has sites south of Eilat, then we can also hit them. All of Israel is under the range of our missiles,” he said.

The Hezbollah leader, while presenting the group’s developed capabilities, warned that in case of any confrontation, the Zionist entity would be brought to the “verge of vanishing, and it knows this.”

“We have a larger number of missiles and we have precise missiles that we did not have in 2006. We also have a large and powerful branch of UAVs,” Hezbollah’s chief further said.

Then, he held up a map of Israeli-occupied territories to the camera, pointing to potential targets for Hezbollah’s attacks.

“There is an area 70 kilometers long and 20 kilometers wide … we can destroy it all,” Nasrallah said.

However, he said a war with Israel was unlikely to happen anytime soon, stressing that Israel will not risk another war on Lebanon thanks to Hezbollah’s deterrent force.

Nasrallah also said that he had deep hope that “we will pray in al-Quds [Mosque compound]” and that he was “certain of victory in any future war, God is with us.”

Elsewhere in his remarks, the Hezbollah leader blasted US President Donald Trump’s so-called Deal of the century, as a means to solve the decades-long conflict between Palestinians and the Israeli regime, stressing the proposal is doomed to fail.

The US killed the initiative after it recognized the whole Jerusalem al-Quds as Israel’s capital.

“The deal took its last breath when Trump recognized al-Quds as the capital of Israel. There is not a single Palestinian who will agree to a deal in which the Christian and Muslim holy sites of al-Quds will be transferred to Israel,” Nasrallah said.

 

To Think Outside the Box, It Helps First to Understand What’s IN the Box

Image result for To Think Outside the Box, It Helps First to Understand What’s IN the Box

Alastair Crooke
July 8, 2019

Daniel Levy, an erstwhile Israeli negotiator with the Palestinians, writes, “what Manama [Kushner’s presentation on the economic aspects of the ‘Deal of the Century’] tells us about the Kushner approach to the broader region beyond Israel-Palestine, may be more worrying yet for American and global well-being in the next 18 months …”:

“[The] ongoing American misdiagnosis of the region, including this White House’s naïveté, combined with an absence of bullsh[*]t detectors when it comes to what Israelis and certain Gulf states are spinning, were on dangerous display in Bahrain. The Trump administration has not succeeded in creating a new way forward on Palestine and the region. It has however bought into a project in which Israel and certain Gulf parties cooperate not in stabilizing the region, but in goading the White House into doing their bidding on Iran. The preference in Jerusalem and Riyadh is that, rather than come to terms with a necessary balancing of regional interests, including the legitimate interests of Iran, it is better to have America in maximum confrontation with Iran.

“Manama showed the limitations (let alone desirability) of any supposed new regional alliance [configured against Iran] … The gathering certainly brought into focus their shallow grasp of the Israel-Palestine portfolio. (One very senior participant privately confided that while it is nice that this US team prides themselves on thinking outside the box, it would be good if they first understood what was actually inside the box.) It was a jaw-dropping display of how completely they are being played by various regional actors in ways highly detrimental to American interests.”

So what exactly is it that is ‘inside the box’? Well firstly, ‘what exactly is it’ that the regional actors fear? Not an Iranian nuclear weapon – for sure. That is a ‘bogey’ conjured up by Israel to frighten and mobilise American officials in support of Israel. Even were Iran to develop such a weapon (which all US intelligence agencies say Iran is not so doing), how could it be used against Israel, whose population, between the river and the sea is 6.5 million Palestinians and 6.5 million Israelis? Nuclear weapons don’t discriminate by ethnicity.

Long ago, senior Israelis were quite open in saying to me that it was Iran’s conventional weaponry (and unconventional forces) that concerned them – they never believed Israel’s twenty-year narrative of Iran being a year away from having an ‘Islamic bomb’.

A year or two ago, I spent a week as guest of the two holy mosques at Karbala (Iraq). I saw there, in the Imam Hussein shrine something unforgettable. Inside that place, literally seething with humanity, was the spectre of fluid energy. It was a people who were mobilised – hugely energized, and for whom Hussein’s grim killing (the grandson of the Prophet) was unfolding at that very instant. They were living it, then and now, in a way that westerners simply cannot fully fathom.

What does this mean?

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What frightened the Gulf states then in 1979 – and what frightens them now – was the revolutionary, insurgent impulse of Iran’s Revolution. Shi’ism from the very outset has been somehow at odds with domineering, worldly power-plays: always seeking something – some deeper ‘within’. Kerbala showed me that if the revolutionary impulse in Iran had quietened to a smolder, it was not extinguished. And rather, that Shi’a religiosity is still igniting at the periphery.

Of course the 1979 Revolution – and the seizure of the Grand Mosque at Mecca by Wahhabi (Sunni) revolutionaries in the same year – frightened the Gulf states. The latter – in spite of their predilection towards launching religious Jihad against their enemies – at home, have embraced a secular, neo-liberalism. But the legitimacy of a security-autocracy or monarchy has been waning, and there is a lack of any credible system of governance (or even of any system for stable succession). There is in short, no compelling ‘vision’.

This is the point. These grand ‘dynamics’ of the Muslim world are none of America’s business, and more than that, they will not be settled by foreign intervention (any more than the bloody European ‘Reformation’ could have been arbitrated by a foreigner). In short, Shi’ism is experiencing a renaissance, just as the Arab ‘system’ continues its downward trajectory in terms of its popular legitimacy and credibility. For the US to think that the Gulf States are capable of confronting Iran – of quenching this Shi’a renaissance – is, as Levy says, naïve.

No, they cannot. Yet the Gulf States and Israel do however share a common interest. They would like America to destroy Iran on their behalf, in the hope that this would somehow prolong the longevity of Gulf monarchies. And, as it were, inoculate them too from internal civil unrest (with the region’s revolutionary ‘gene’ dispatched). But even so, some Gulf leaders see the danger that such a project might not be confined to Iran, but would immolate the entire region. For Israel, these security states provide the compliant – if inadequate – strategic depth in which a Greater Israel might, one day soon, be actualised.

So, what then is the nature of this Iran crisis? Well, there are two components: Firstly, the crisis between Iran and Washington is only nominally about nuclear issues. It is rather, a political crisis between Iran and America, which reaches back to the humiliation of US President Carter in the context of the US embassy siege in Tehran. The nuclear wrangle is just the pretext for this bitter struggle. When Secretary Pompeo speaks of negotiations being only possible – as and when – Iran were to become a “normal nation”, he plainly means only ‘when Iran abjures its revolution’. Again, this reflects a complete lack of understanding of ‘that’ which makes Iran precisely what it is.

This US-Iranian antagonism also explains why Iran rejects to negotiate on the JCPOA with Trump. The Supreme Leader understands that the nature of the crisis is one of deep political hostility, rather that of the parties needing to agree some technical download ‘patch’ to the JCPOA software (such as an extension to the ‘sunset clauses’).

A short term ‘sticking plaster’ applied to the JCPOA solves little. The antagonism remains unresolved. Instead, Iran intends to raise the stakes for Trump by giving him the choice: Risk your Presidential election prospects for 2020 through entangling yourself in ratchetting escalation with Iran, or back-off on oil and banking sanctions. The Iranian leadership will mount its own counter-measures against “regime collapse” pursued by economic strangulation. Trump may find he becomes obliged to choose either the military way – or retreat.

The second crisis is that inside Israel. Observe what a leading Israeli political commentator, Ben Caspit, wrote (in Hebrew, for Ma’ariv – 24 May) as a cri de cœur, prior to the large march called by the opposition to Netanyahu, just prior to the recent Israeli elections:

“It is imperative that to come to the Tel Aviv Museum of Art tomorrow evening. Come by car, come on foot, bring your bike, bring your scooter, come together, come alone. Bring your friends, your parents, your children, your wife, your husband, your caretaker. Come running, come walking, come with your walker or your wheelchair. Come as you are: from the left, right, up, down or center. What matters is that you come. It’s happening here, it’s happening now. You will have no excuses later. When you ask yourselves where you were when it happened, say that you were there. You came. You volunteered to save the State of Israel that we knew. You will know that you did not give up, that you did not complain, that you did not accept the decree, that you came to fight for your home. That’s not a cliché. This is a war for our home.

“This is not the war of Blue and White or the Labor Party or “the left” or the center or the liberals or the conservatives … It’s the war of every Israeli who believes in freedom, equality, the values of the Declaration of Independence and Israel’s character as the founding fathers envisioned it. Of everyone who is unwilling to accept a tyrannical government, who recognizes the slippery slope that we will be pushed towards when the Knesset places the government above the law and revokes the courts’ ability to perform their accepted function in any democratic country: oversight of the government.

“This is the war of everyone who is unwilling to let the Knesset turn into a city of refuge for criminals. This is also the war (as the polls have proven) of the right wing, of religious Zionists, of people who wear knitted and black skullcaps, of the Likud’s registered party members and its voters.”

Yes, the crisis of secular liberalism to which President Putin referred in his interview with the Financial Times is not confined to Europe. It is in Israel too.

Laurent Guyénot has written an erudite book, From Yahwey to Zion, that traces the path from biblical Yahweyism to secular, (yet still ‘biblical’) Zionism, as exemplified in the person of Ben Gurion. But what we can observe frightening Caspit so in his Ma’ariv pleading, is his fear that Israel may be transiting now, from liberal Zionism (of the early Kibbutzim stalwarts) back towards Yahweyism.

The Gulf States certainly have an inkling of this. And Iran certainly does. This constitutes the unspoken second strand. In a Washington Post piece headlined Trump’s Envoys take a Hammer to Middle East Peace, the Posthighlighted a photo of US envoy David Friedman hoisting a sledge hammer a few days ago to open an ancient passage way to “what some archaeologists and a right-wing Jewish nationalist organization believe to be an ancient thoroughfare that led to Jerusalem’s holy sites (but which passes directly beneath the ancient Palestinian neighbourhood of Silwan). Friedman was accompanied by Trump donor, Sheldon Adelson, Jason Greenblatt, Sara Netanyahu, the prime minister’s wife and former mayor of Jerusalem, Nir Barkat.

This may play well with Trump’s and Netanyahu’s bases, but do Trump and his advisers understand what they may be unleashing, through the emboldening of the religious Right in Israel (i.e. Yahwehism with all its biblical connotations of domination and even Empire)? Does Team Trump, Daniel Levy asks, really understand “how completely they are being played by various regional actors, in ways highly detrimental to American interests”?

Probably not – which is why the region is so on edge. The actualization of a biblical Israel – which US evangelicals clearly desire – represents a provocation far, far more potent than the ‘Deal of the Century’.

الجولان بيضة قبّان المنطقة ومعركة الساعة

الجولان بيضة قبّان المنطقة ومعركة الساعة

يوليو 9, 2019

ناصر قنديل

– ربما يغيب عن أذهان الكثيرين أن جوهر الصراع الدائر منذ تحرير حلب من الجماعات المسلحة المعدومة من تركيا، وانطلاق قطار الدولة السورية بدعم روسي إيراني لاسترداد كامل الجغرافيا السورية، هو الصراع على مستقبل الجولان، بين رؤيتين أميركية وروسية رؤية أميركية تربط الاعتراف بعودة سورية ببقاء الجولان تحت السيطرة الإسرائيلية، وتعتبر أن عودة باقي الجغرافيا السورية باستثناء الجولان يجب أن يكفي لعودة الاستقرار لسورية. وعلى هذه الخلفية قامت واشنطن بخطوتين مهمتين، الأولى عرض مقايضة الانسحاب الأميركي من سورية بانسحاب إيران وقوى المقاومة، والثانية تأييد قرار إسرائيلي سابق بضم الجولان، بما يعنيه من إسقاط للضمانة الأميركية كشريك في اتفاق فك الاشتباك عام 1974 وما يعنيه من تنطر للقرارات الدولية الصادرة عن مجلس الأمن بإدانة قرار الضم، وإدانة قرارات الاستيطان، وتأكيد الهوية السورية للجولان المحتل.

– الرؤية الروسية كانت واضحة من لحظة التمسك باتفاقية فك الاشتباك كإطار للوضع على حدود الجولان ضمن مفهوم ارتباط الاتفاقية بالقرارات الدولية التي تنص صراحة على الانسحاب الإسرائيلي من الجولان، والضغط الروسي لتراجع أميركي وإسرائيلي أمام التقدم السوري نحو الجنوب قبل عامين. كان في هذا السياق، ومثله تجاهل عروض مقايضة الوجود الأميركي بوجود إيران وقوى المقاومة، ورفض الموافقة الأميركية على ضم الجولان، وصولاً لقناعة روسية بأن الحديث عن انسحاب جميع القوات غير السورية باستثناء روسيا يمكن أن يشمل إيران عندما يكون المطروح مقابله انسحاباً إسرائيلياً من الجولان، تقوم روسيا بعرضه مدخلاً للاستقرار في المنطقة في كل مناسبة وكل لقاء، وتبدي الاستعداد للبحث بالضمانات الأمنية لـ»إسرائيل» في حال قبول وضعه بنداً للبحث على الطاولة.

– مشروع صفقة القرن شكل الإطار الشامل للرؤية الأميركية وكانت روسيا تراه فاشلاً منذ أعلن الفلسطينيون إجماعهم على رفضه، وأعلنت التضامن معهم بمقاطعة مؤتمر المنامة. والرؤية الروسية لسياق تطور أوضاع سورية وامتداد سيطرة الدولة السورية على جغرافيتها لا يلحظ حاجة لوضع الوجود الإيراني على الطاولة لضمان انسحاب الأتراك والأميركيين. فسياق الرؤية الروسية يضمن مقايضتهما ببعضهما البعض، الأميركيون يفرجون عن مطالب الأمن التركي بإلغاء خطر الكيان الكردي، والأتراك يقايضون شراكتهم بالحل السياسي بالإفراج عن الجغرافيا السورية التي يحتلونها، والانسحاب التركي وإقلاع التسوية السياسية كفيلان بتسريع روزنامة الانسحاب الأميركي، والتجاذب الإيراني الأميركي مفيد للرؤية الروسية لأنه يضع الوجود الأميركي في سورية كواحد من الأهداف المعرضة لعمل عسكري في أي مناخ متوتر، بحيث يصير الانسحاب الأميركي من سورية ضمن مفهوم تسوية سياسية سورية مخرجاً يحفظ ماء الوجه، خصوصاً بربط الأميركي توقيعه الأخير على التسوية بإعادة الإعمار وليس بالانسحاب كما كان من قبل.

– الجولان في منظور «إسرائيل» وأمنها، مقنع للأميركيين الذين ليس بينهم وبين إيران ومعها قوى المقاومة من قضية تتقدم على قضية أمن «إسرائيل»، ليس باعتبارها خدمة لـ»إسرائيل» بل باعتبارها أهم عناوين القوة الأميركية في المنطقة والتخلي عن أسباب قوتها بمثابة إعلان هزيمة أميركية كاملة وخروج مهين من المنطقة الأهم في العالم، وسقوط لمكانة الدولة الأولى في صناعة السياسة والأمن عالمياً، لذلك تعرف «إسرائيل» أن الجولان ليس غزة ولا جنوب لبنان، وتعرف أن خروجها منه ولو بنقله لحماية دولية معزّزة بضمانات روسية أميركية لن يثني قوى المقاومة، التي تعرف خصوصية الجولان وموقف أهله كما تعرفهما «إسرائيل»، عن التمركز على ضفاف بحيرة طبريا في اليوم الثاني للانسحاب الإسرائيلي منه، وما يعنيه ذلك للأمن الاستراتيجي لـ»إسرائيل» الذي يبدأ وينتهي في الجليل ومستقبل الجليل يرتبط بمستقبل الجولان عضوياً ووجودياً.

– لا يمكن لأحد أن يطالب الدولة السورية بقبول تساكن هادئ على حدود الجولان مع قوات الاحتلال في ظل إعلان إسرائيلي مدعوم أميركياً بضمّ الجولان، وفي توقيت ما سيكون الجولان جبهة ساخنة وقد تنزلق للأشد سخونة ويصير السؤال عن كيفية تفادي نشوب الحرب، ولذلك يبقى الإيرانيون وتبقى قوى المقاومة وتريد سورية منهم أن يبقوا، ولا تمانع روسيا في بقائهم، لأن مصلحة سورية تكمن بطرح السؤال ومصلحة روسيا تتحقق بتقديم الجواب، وحتى ذلك الحين غير البعيد، تحاول «إسرائيل» القول إنها قادرة على فرض الابتعاد الإيراني بالقوة، وهي أمام مأزق كونها مضطرة للاختيار بين غارات توجع إيران وقوى المقاومة لتراهن عليها كبديل عن وضع الجولان على الطاولة. وفي هذه الحالة كل وجع يقابله وجع من نوعه وحجمه، وتبادل الألم قد يُخرج الأمور عن السيطرة، والعمل الذي يكتفي باللعبة الإعلامية دون التسبب بألم لا يمنع اقتراب لحظة يصير الوضع في الجولان هو الواجهة التي تتصدّر وضع سورية، وتبدأ السخونة ويصير السؤال مطروحاً عن كيفية منع الحرب ويطرح الروس الجواب.

– الجولان مفتاح المنطقة وبيضة القبان فيها، وجنوب سورية المتصل بالجولان ليس قضية طائفية يمكن أن يظنّ البعض، رغم فشل محاولاته السابقة، أن اللعبة فيها متداخلة بين لبنان وسورية وأنها لا تزال مفتوحة، ويمكن التجربة مرة أخرى ببعض التشجيع الخارجي والعبث الداخلي.

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