There’s a Deep State in America?!

February 18, 2017

by Ramin Mazaheri

There’s a Deep State in America?!

Imagine my surprise when, on my flight back from San Francisco to New York, that’s what my trusty New York Times revealed to me.

My first thought was: I can’t believe how this horrible Donald Trump has set up a Deep State in less than a month?!

Surely Russia was involved in its formation.

Then again, I strangely find myself thinking a lot about Russia these days. I’ll admit it – when my morning breakfast was late it fleetingly occurred to me that the Kremlin was behind this slowdown in my hotel room service.

Putting that aside, I was immediately relieved when by the 3rd paragraph our nation’s paper of record had put to rest my fears of an unprecedented formation of a US Deep State with, “Not quite, experts say….”

Whew.

I just don’t put anything past the evil capabilities of the Donald!

Reading the article I was surprised to find that the Deep State isn’t what I thought it was – apparently it’s only when the government leaks information to the media?

That’s funny, because one time on the SF-NYC “Job Creator Red-eye” I sat next to an Egyptian guy. Of course I was worried, at first, but I found out it he was a Coptic Christian, so that put me at ease. Who even knew they had those?!

This Egyptian told me about his country’s Deep State, and it sounded really bad:

He said that they colluded with “some Western countries” – he didn’t say which and looked kind of uncomfortable as he said it, for some reason – to stop that great Tahrir Square Revolution which was to guarantee that Israel would be safe.

“Mr. Gypsy” said that the Egyptian version of the Deep State was that their military controlled the economy, and that they bribed, imprisoned and killed people to keep their grip on the economy and control over foreign policy.

It sounded pretty bad.

I told him I was happy that Washington was supporting Al-Sisi’s military takeover with billions in aid, and that he didn’t have to thank me personally for that.

A “military” intertwined with the “economy”…I must admit, it did make me think.

Of Russia! I’m nearly certain that Putin created something similar over thereafter he banned elections, so why even verify it with some research?!

But this Egyptian must not have known what he was talking about, because the New York Times article didn’t say anything about the economy?

What they said was:

“Mr. Trump, apparently seeking to cut the intelligence community, State Department, and other agencies out of the policy-making process almost entirely, may have triggered a conflict whose escalation we are seeing in the rising number of leaks.”

Officials, deprived of the usual levers for shaping policies that are supposed to be their purview, are left with little other than leaking.”

Trump was clearly trying to cut public officials out of the democratic process, and they had no choice but to resort to these “illegal” leaks!

I mean, I’m pretty sure you don’t get elected to be a CIA spy or NSA agent, but somebody up top is and…well, I don’t know if they did the leaks…and I don’t know if the leaks are really true or not…but I’m telling you – we have to get Donald out NOW!

Anything that’s bad for Trump must be good. It’s really that simple, so case closed.

“We’re in a world now where the president is playing to the edge of his powers, and I think there are real concerns about the constitutional implications of some of the actions he’s taken,” said somebody who must be totally objective and perfect because why else would the New York Times choose them?

If there’s one thing Obama never, ever, ever did it was to expand his executive authority in ways unbeseeming to the presidential authority.

If Obama had done that, I would have been in the streets, you can bet! Trust me: I have my anti-Trump “pussy hat” in my closet and ready for the next protest!

Don’t bring up “drones”! You’ll just remind me of this guy at work nobody understands – Fazlollah “Lefty” Bittermani – he’s always doing that!

Between you and me, his last name ends in a vowel, so…you know….he may have certain sympathies. That guy really cheeses me off!

What Lefty doesn’t realize is that we are at war – not with Russia, yet – but with – not Muslims – but with…certain people, let’s just say. And the president has the right to fight war however he wants.

But when it comes to waging diplomacy the president must be restricted as much as possible!

We refuse to accept Hillary’s defeat until the Russians give back the Donbass to the Crimeans! This is simply a question of our humanitarian rights!

Trump is trying to make a liar out of not just Hillary, but of Sylvester Stallone and “Rocky IV” – even when the Russians cheat they are still supposed to lose to the Americans!

Was I back on Russia again? I don’t know…I’m like, obsessed with them, or something?

Back to the New York Times, which always reassures me when contradictions confuse me. Just after that last quote they wrote this:

That has forced officials in agencies to ask how far they will go themselves. As each side begins to perceive itself as under attack and the other as making dangerous power-grabs, it will justify more and more extreme behavior.

So clearly, these officials are justified more and more in extreme behavior…because it’s Trump!

I really wish we had some of these great, extreme officials during the Dubya era, but why bring up ancient history?

One thing is certain: During just four weeks in office Trump has clearly destroyed the culture and future of the United States and must be impeached. These officials – even if they are unelected – should absolutely not be listening to their elected leader!

Why? Well just read the next paragraph, another unassailable analyst of the Times:

“In President Trump, you have a president whose behavior shocks even more than the content of his policies.”

Yes! Behavior, not content!

I was telling my son this recently: He came in 19th place in a recent science competition (but out of 24!), and he was upset that his blue ribbon wasn’t an actual trophy.

I told him, “Son, I’m going to buy you that trophy because your behavior was correct, even if you totally screwed up measuring the contents of your volcano experiment, and it exploded and burned the girl next to you.”

I think the girl was Russian, anyway. She was certainly shocked.

Anyway, the Times goes on to say that now this dangerous Trump wants to appoint someone to review our intelligence agencies. Astounding, the gall of this man! I really think he’s psychologically insane.

“It looks, sounds and feels like a political witch hunt,” said Analyst #1 (the White one, not the Egyptian one). “It’s like pouring gasoline on the fire.”

It certainly does!

What else do you call our top elected official trying to find out what work is being illegally done in secret with taxpayer money?

I am certain this is something Putin would do with his KGB.

And that’s why Russia is not free – because the KGB cannot operate freely to undermine Putin’s attempts at diplomacy!

Don’t tell me I’m wrong, comrade!

“Mr. Flynn, in his short tenure, exemplified the breakdown between the president’s inner circle and career civil servants. He kept the National Security Council largely shut out of policy-making and sought sweeping changes in foreign policy.”

This is the US, not the USSR! Our career bureaucrats need to be in charge, not our elected officials!

Trump simply cannot make sweeping changes to foreign policy – even if he was democratically elected on that mandate – because career civil servants should run the show!

The next paragraph:

“For concerned government officials, leaks may have become one of the few remaining means by which to influence not just Mr. Flynn’s policy initiatives but the threat he seemed to pose to their place in democracy.”

Democracy is bureaucracy!

You vote for a person, they appoint an official, the person you voted for gets voted out of office, but the appointed official stays forever and amasses power – democracy!

I tried to explain this to that Egyptian guy, but he said,

“Then what’s the point of demonstrating and facing down gun barrels if the people can’t demand change?”

I kept telling him:

“But Israel is fine these days? Tahrir worked out great!”

He didn’t get it.

Anyway, Egypt is not the country who is threatening American democracy, and I don’t have to tell you who is, because I’ve just taken that pill that helps me with my compulsive psychological issues.

The Times continued:

Even if each individual leak is justifiable, as insubordination becomes more sustained and overt, it inches deeper into the gray zone of counter-democratic activities.

I already had the feeling that every anti-Trump leaks was justifiable, and that we are still many, many inches away from counter-democracy, so thanks Gray Lady! I almost had to take that other pill for my anxiety!

And “insubordination” is clearly justified because, as I said, in 4 weeks Trump has already proven himself to be a new Hitler! Don’t get me started on Steve Bannon!

“I don’t think you can say in advance what inappropriate deep-state activity would look like, because we haven’t seen this before,” said Analyst #1.

Exactly – this is a totally new day, and this was all appropriate deep-state activity. We’ve never seen anything like this in the history of the world, much less America.

I told this to Lefty back at work and he started ranting about Kennedy. I totally did not see what Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy had to do with this, but who can fathom what goes on in the mind of a Fazlollah?

The main thing is that we get Trump before he does damage to free trade, because my corporation and all businesses are totally helpless against the government.

They have no influence at all…unlike Egypt.

“There, ‘the deep state is not official institutions rebelling,’ he said, but rather ‘shadowy networks within those institutions, and within business, who are conspiring together and forming parallel state institutions.’”

We all know that there is absolutely nothing like this which is happening in America.

And that’s why the idea of business being involved in America’s Deep State did not appear until the 7th-to-last paragraph. I almost didn’t read that far!

And that’s why the New York Times finished on this heartening note:

“This war between the intelligence community and the White House is bad for the intelligence community, bad for the White House, and bad for the nation’s security.”

See? Our so-called Deep State has nothing to do with business. The New York Times is right next to Wall Street, so they would surely know, right?

Now if you’ll excuse me I have to make a call to the Pentagon for my work.

No, I’m in defense contracting or anything, but the Pentagon is the world’s largest employer…hard to work around them in the United States!

And the profit margins – wow!

I’m so glad our owners had a personal contact in there.

Frankly, I thought the New York Times’ headline was a bit too alarmist: “As Leaks Multiply, Fears of a ‘Deep State’ in America”.

But I’m glad they immediately put those fears to rest.

With that content, I would have run a headline like: “Internal leaks justified as Trump could affect share prices”.

I think that would have been more accurate.

Frankly I’m a bit surprised such a non-story could bump Russia off the front page?

Ramin Mazaheri is the chief correspondent in Paris for Press TV and has lived in France since 2009. He has been a daily newspaper reporter in the US, and has reported from Cuba, Egypt, Tunisia, South Korea and elsewhere. His work has appeared in various journals, magazines and websites, as well as on radio and television.

New Military Alliance to Be Formed in Middle East

New Military Alliance to Be Formed in Middle East

PETER KORZUN | 17.02.2017 | WORLD

New Military Alliance to Be Formed in Middle East

Combining available information to get the whole picture, one can see the situation in the Middle East changing drastically, especially as the US strategy is reviewed and new alliances are formed.

The Trump administration is in talks with Middle East allies about forming a military alliance that would share intelligence with Israel to help counter Iran, according to several Middle Eastern officials.

The planned coalition would include countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain. Egypt and Jordan have longstanding peace treaties with Israel. For the Arab countries involved, the alliance would have a NATO-style mutual-defense component under which an attack on one member would be treated as an attack on all, though details are still being worked out. The US and Israel will cooperate without full-fledged membership. According to the Wall Street Journal, «one Arab diplomat suggested that the notion that the Trump administration might designate the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist group was being floated as an incentive for Egypt to join the alliance».

US President Donald Trump has assured visiting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Tehran would never be able to build a nuclear weapon.

«The security challenges faced by Israel are enormous, including the threat of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, which I’ve talked a lot about. One of the worst deals I’ve ever seen is the Iran deal», Trump told reporters at a joint news conference with Netanyahu at the White House. Reading the statement between the lines, it becomes evident that the US is ready to go much further than warnings and sanctions to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear capability.

Russian Izvestia daily reported the US plans to substantially increase its military presence in Iraq. The newspaper cited its own sources in the U.S. Republican Party. The plans include a few thousand troops to arrive in Iraq in the coming months. The reinforcement will continue the policy of the Obama administration, which was gradually expanding the military presence in that country.

It was reported on February 16 that the Pentagon was developing proposals for sending an unspecified number of American military personnel into Syria, conventional ground forces which would augment the 500 combat advisers already there coordinating efforts to destroy the Islamic State (IS).

Military Times reports that multiple US Army sources indicated that about two thousand soldiers with the 82nd Airborne Division’s 2nd Brigade Combat Team may soon bolster other Army elements already in the region. Currently, about 1,800 paratroopers from the 2nd BCT are in Iraq participating in the US military’s train-and-advise mission. The 82ndAirborne Division is based at Fort Bragg in North Carolina. Citing an unidentified U.S. defense official, CNN indicated additional deployments could happen within weeks. Today, there are about 5,000 US troops deployed to Iraq and another 500 in Syria.

The White House indicated in January that it could task the military with establishing «safe zones» on Syrian soil. A large number of troops would be needed to defend havens, pitting them against pro-government forces as well as rival rebel groups. Without approval by UN Security Council, few nations will contribute leaving the US alone to shoulder the main burden. Hundreds of aircraft will have to be deployed to carry out the mission.

Deploying substantial forces in the Middle East risks putting the US on a slippery slope to further involvement in the war. Safe zones should not become no-fly zones to impede the operations of Russian and Syrian air forces. If the US decides to continue with the idea, it should it become an issue on the agenda for talks with Russia before any practical steps are taken to implement it.

It’s not Arab states only. Army Gen. John Nicholson, the top US commander in Afghanistan, told lawmakers on February 9 that thousands more American or NATO troops are needed to break the «stalemate» between Afghan forces and the Taliban insurgent group while the IS also remains active in the nation. The general did not specify how many additional troops were needed, but did not rule out the potential for up to 30,000.

The strategy, which relied on special forces teams and intensive operations conducted by drones, may become a thing of the past, with the U.S. returning to large-scale presence.

The terrorist activities of the IS go beyond the scope of a regional problem. There are a few options here for cooperation of the military agencies and special services of Russia and the US ranging from intelligence exchange on IS to exercising influence on the countries affected by the war with the terrorist threat.

Whatever are the plans of Trump’s administration aimed at changing the Middle East strategy, the US cannot go it alone there. It needs allies, partners, and friendly pertinent actors to coordinate activities with. This shows how important it is to speed up bilateral and multilateral discussions.

It all goes to show that Russia and the US should speed up launching regular contacts to exchange opinions on the situation in the Middle East. On February 16, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph Dunford met face to face with their Russian counterparts Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Chief of General Staff General Valeriy Gerasimov in Bonn and Baku respectively. Hopefully, the first contacts will spur the process and the parties will be engaged in dialogue concerning major security issues. The volatile situation in the Middle East should be addressed without delay as part of preparations for a possible summit in Slovenia.

Egyptian parliament calls for Syria’s return to Arab League

The Committee of Arab Affairs at the Egyptian parliament called on the Syrian Arab Republic to restore its seat at the Arab League, describing the current situation as totally ‘unacceptable’.

The Committee states that the strategic ties and mutual struggle shared by both countries make it necessary to positively intervene in the Syrian case.

On the recently-held peace talks in Astana between the Syrian government and opposition, the CAF underlined the need to maintain the country’s institution, unity and sovereignty.

It also put a special emphasis on the fact that only Syrians have the right to decide the future of their country and form of government through democratic and free elections, taking into account the public interest of the country, expressing concerns about what it called ‘attempts to obliterate the Arabic and Islamic character of Syria through the draft constitution laid down by Russia.

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عون: مَنْ الذي تغيّر؟ أنا أم أنتم؟

فبراير 14, 2017

ناصر قنديل

– نستعيد مع الأيام المئة التي مرّت من عهد الرئيس العماد ميشال عون، النقاشات التي أحاطت الأيام القليلة التي سبقت انتخابه، وما رافقها من تساؤلات حول مضمون اتفاق ضمني تضمّنه التفاهم على سير تيار المستقبل بانتخاب العماد عون رئيساً للجمهورية، بعدما كان قد سبقه تفاهم مشابه بين التيار الوطني الحر والقوات اللبنانية. وقد نجحت الحملة الإعلامية التي نظمها المستقبل والقوات معاً بالإيحاء بوجود ضمانات حصلا عليها من العماد عون لقاء السير به لرئاسة الجمهورية تطال مواقفه السابقة، خصوصاً لجهة قانون الانتخابات النيابية والتفاهم على بقاء قانون الستين وما يرتّبه هذا التفاهم من نظرة جديدة لتوازنات الداخل وتموضع التيار ضمنها في تحالفات جديدة  من جهة، وتعامل التيار وزعيمه بعد الوصول لرئاسة الجمهورية مع القضايا الإقليمية، خصوصاً سلاح المقاومة والعلاقة مع سوريا والموقف من الحرب التي تستهدفها والتحالفات المحيطة بهذه الحرب من جهة أخرى.

– بقي العماد عون ملتزماً الصمت تجاه هذه الحملة يبتسم عندما يسأل، ويكتفي بالقول إنه ليس من الذين يجرون تفاهمات تحت الطاولة، وإنه ليس من الذين يدفعون أثماناً للمناصب والمواقع، وإن من ارتضاه لرئاسة الجمهورية فقد ارتضى ميشال عون الذي يعرفه بتاريخه ومواقفه. وكان خطاب القسم أولى المحطات التي أطلّ عبرها العماد عون من موقعه كرئيس في اللحظة الأولى، مناسبة لإطلاق التزامات لا تنسجم مع الحملة القواتية المستقبلية، سواء بتعهّده إجراء الانتخابات النيابية وفقاً لقانون جديد، أو لجهة إشاراته لـ«حرب وقائية على الإرهاب» أو لمواجهة الخطر «الإسرائيلي» بكل ما توفر بما في ذلك «لن ندّخر مقاومة»، لكن أصحاب الحملة خرجوا بتأويلات لهذه المواقف تحاول إفراغها من مضمونها والتلاعب بالكلمات والحديث عن الفرق بين مقاومة والمقاومة، وأل التعريف بينهما، ومرة أخرى كان النجاح نسبياً لأهل الحملة مستفيدين من تأويلات ومعانٍ منحوها لزيارة العماد الرئيس إلى الرياض والحديث عما دار فيها من «أسرار»، لكن التساؤلات حول صحة ما يدّعيه اهل المستقبل والقوات تكبر.

– خلال الأيام الأخيرة بلغ الرئيس العماد في التزامه بقانون انتخاب جديد حدّ المجاهرة بالذهاب إلى خيار الفراغ، إذا أُجبر على الاختيار بين قانون الستين والتمديد، فخرج وزير الداخلية المستقبلي نهاد المشنوق يهدّد بخسارة العهد للإجماع الداخلي والخارجي، وبعدها ردّ الرئيس على مدّعي ظلم النظام النسبي لهم ولطوائفهم بلغة حازمة تدعو لإنهاء الدلع السياسي والتصرّف برشد الكبار والمسؤولين، وتفند خلفيات رافضي النسبية برغبتهم بالسطو على مقاعد تستحقّ لأبناء طوائفهم وأخرى لطوائف أخرى، بقوة التسلط والبلطجة. وعشية زيارته للقاهرة تحدث العماد الرئيس بوضوح وصراحة عن سلاح المقاومة وعن سورية وعن العلاقة اللبنانية السورية، كما كان يتحدث قبل أن يصير رئيساً، لكن بلغة الرئاسة ومسؤوليتها، فسقطت كل الأكاذيب وانكشف زيف الإدعاءات والمدعين.

– هرع أصحاب الكذبة بلسان صقورهم لتناول كلام الرئيس وقد صدّقوا كذبتهم، كأنهم بلاوعيهم يريدون محاسبته على تراجع عن وعود هم قاموا بفبركتها وتأليفها أو حلموا بها، فلا يجدون ما يقولونه عن كذبة الوعود، إلا أن هذا الكلام غير مقبول من رئيس للجمهورية، وكأن ألسنتهم كانت مربوطة يوم التقوه قبل أن يمنحوه تصويتهم الانتخابي ليقولوا له يومها لا يناسبنا أن تبقى على خطابك المعهود بعد أن تصبح رئيساً، وعدم القول وقتها كافٍ ليكون قبولاً ضمنياً به، ولجعل انتقاداتهم اليوم جبناً وضعفاً وسخافة، فأنتم منحتم تصويتكم لرئاسة الجمهورية لرجل معلن المواقف ومعلوم الخيارات، بعدما بقيتم سنتين ونصفاً تحجبون عنه تصويتكم بداعي هذه المواقف، وجئتم أخيراً وقبلتم به رئيساً ولم تفاوضوه على تغيير خياراته، لأنكم تعلمون أنه لن يغيّرها، ومنحتموه تصويتكم لأنه بوابتكم الوحيدة للعودة للحكم، فأي نفاق يقف وراء انتقاداتكم اليوم؟

– بعض الحلفاء الذين ساورتهم الشكوك معنيون اليوم، بالقول للعماد الرئيس: لقد ظلمناك.

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President Aoun to CBC Egypt: Hezbollah Weaponry Complements Army’s Action

Lebanese President Michel Aoun

February 12, 2017

Lebanon President, Michel Aoun, said in an interview with CBC Egypt that Hezbollah’s weaponry was complementary to the army’s action, and do not oppose it.

“As long as a part of the territory is occupied by ‘Israel’, which also has covetousness in Lebanese natural resources, and as long as the army is not powerful enough to face Israel, we feel the need to maintain Hezbollah’s weapons. These weapons complement the action of the army,” President Aoun underscored.

According to President Aoun, were it not for the resistance’s pressure Israel wouldn’t have withdrawn from most of the territory.

“Hezbollah’s arms are not contradictory to the state project, which I support and for which I endeavor,” he pointed out.

The President, who spoke on the eve of his visit to Cairo tomorrow, Monday, said it was unacceptable that the Arab situation continue as such, since it is destructive for all.

Aoun described his visit to Cairo as an opportunity to exchange views with his Egyptian counterpart on all issues of interest to both countries.

Source: NNA

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هل نقرأ إيران بغير عيون الحب أو الكراهية؟

ناصر قنديل

– في ذكرى انتصار الثورة الإسلامية في إيران دعوة للتحرر في مقاربة الحدث من المشاعر المؤيّدة والمعارضة للسياسات الإيرانية، دعوة للتعلّم أو لِنَقُل للقراءة، ومحاولة الإفادة باكتساب العبر والمعاني. وبعيداً عن التشويهات التي يريدها بعض المبالغين في العداء، وبهدف الإساءة لا يمانعون بافتراءات يعرفونها محض أكاذيب، من نوع أنّ إيران وكيل سريّ للمصالح الأميركية أو تقيم سراً علاقات بـ«إسرائيل»، والقائلون طبعاً من الذين يلهثون لنيل رضا وتبجيل حكومات تجاهر بالتبعية لأميركا وللتطبيع مع «إسرائيل»، فيصير مجرد مسايرة منطقهم بقبول اتهاماتهم رغم بطلانها، إعلان تفوق إيران من ضفة لا نريدها ولا نرتضيها، لكننا تناولناها لقطع دابر النقاش بها في كلّ ما سيلي من كلام واستنتاجات.

– إيران المتحرّرة من التبعية لأميركا والمواجهة لـ«إسرائيل»، حقيقة ثابتة في الأدبيات العلنية والسرية للكيانين الأميركي و«الإسرائيلي»، نجحت خلال سبعة وثلاثين عاماً بالارتقاء إلى مصاف الدول الكبرى في صناعة السياسة والاستراتيجيات، وصارت عضواً في نادي اللاعبين الكبار، مُهابة الجانب، يُحسب لها الحساب. وهذا ليس موضع نقاش عند الكبار إن صعب على الصغار الاعتراف به، لكن المفارقة أن هذا لم يتمّ على حساب ثابتتين اضطر غيرها للتضحية بهما لنيل مكانة تقارب او تسعى لمقاربة مكانتها السياسية والعسكرية، وهما التنمية الاقتصادية والعمرانية والاجتماعية والعلمية والخدمية، من جهة، والمسيرة الديمقراطية القائمة على الانتخابات والتعددية السياسية والإعلامية، لدرجة أن إيران قد تكون من بين بلدان العالم الأولى في تسجيل سوابق المفاجآت الانتخابية، والتداول السلس للسلطة، وحتى قبل أسابيع قبيل وفاة الرئيس هاشمي رفسنجاني كان فيها، أربعة رؤساء سابقين للجمهورية. ولمن يتابع الحياة السياسية والإعلامية في إيران يعرف بتنافس برامجي على السياسات الاقتصادية والاجتماعية، وعلى الشأن السياسي الداخلي والخارجي، ضمن ثوابت تحقق الإجماع يحترمها الجميع تتصل بالمكانة الوطنية لإيران، وكرامتها وعزتها وعناصر قوتها، تنبض بها وبخلافاتها وتبايناتها ومواجهاتها يومياً صحافة إيرانية تعبر عن تعددية سياسية نشطة وشجاعة.

– خلال هذه الفترة القصيرة نسبياً في عمر بناء الدول نهضت إيران عمرانياً بما يضعها في خدمات الكهرباء والهاتف والنقل والصحة والتعليم والسكن والبيئة والبحث العلمي، في مصاف دول تتراوح بين المرتبة الخامسة والخامسة عشرة في العالم، وبقياس تأثير الحرب التي شنّها عليها العراق واستهلكتها واستنزفتها لسنوات ثمانٍ، ومثلها على الأقل لمحو آثار الحرب، يصير عمر بناء الدولة في إيران نصف الزمن المنقضي من تاريخ انتصار ثورتها، وبقياس العقوبات والحصار تصير إنجازاتها قابلة للتحقّق، ربما بنصف المدة الباقية أي بثمانٍ أو تسع سنوات، لو لم تكن تحت هذا الحصار المميت.

– يقارن كل عربي حال بلاده بحال إيران بمعزل عن القبول بنموذجها العقائدي أو رفضه، أو القبول بسياساتها أو رفضها، أو حبّ قيادتها أو رفضها. فالقضية إن دولة وشعباً مجاورين لنا في ظروف قاسية وبإمكانات اقتصادية وموارد تقلّ عن تلك التي تخصّنا كعرب، وبقياس لصالح فوزنا في معيار المساحة والجغرافيا وعدد السكان نفشل نحن وتفوز إيران. ويكفي أن نقارن تاريخ الحرب التي تشارك فيها العراق والخليج على إيران لنقارن من عنده أين كانت وأين أصبحت إيران وأين كان العراق ومعه الخليج وأين أصبحا؟ أو أن نقارن من تاريخ الثورة التي تزامن حدوثها مع دخول مصر عهد كامب ديفيد الذي تغيّرت وجوه حكوماته وبقي حاكماً لمصر، ونتساءل أين كانت مصر وأين كانت إيران واين أصبحتا؟

– بالمثال المتعلق بالموارد والحجم والمكانة يمكن مقارنة إيران بتركيا، التي تتسوّل دخولها الاتحاد الأوروبي وتفشل، وتخضع لقواعد التبعية للغرب عبر عضويتها في حلف الأطلسي، وتحمل ميراث استقرار قرن كامل في البناء الاقتصادي والعسكري، يمكن ببساطة السؤال عن مكانة تركيا اليوم واضطرابها وارتباكها، وثبات إيران ومكانتها وصعود مقدراتها، فلا بالعيون الروسية ولا بالعيون الأميركية والغربية تحظى تركيا بصفة الحاجة التي لا غنى عنها، أو بصفة الحليف الموثوق أو الخصم المهاب الجانب، فكيف بالعيون «الإسرائيلية»، وعيون الشعوب التي لا تزال تنظر لـ«إسرائيل» كعدو ولفلسطين كقضية؟

– يحق لإيران أن تقول بأن مصدر قوتها الذي استوحت واستلهمت منه نجاحاتها هو نموذحها العصري المنفتح للإسلام، بغير المفهوم التبعي لانفتاح إسلام آخرين، ولكن هذا ليس هو الموضوع. الموضوع أن بالقرب منا مثالاً حياً على ما تصنعه الإرادة المستقلة للدول من بناء متقدّم ومتفوّق في العمران بمفهومه الشامل، ومن إنجازات في الطب والفيزياء والعلوم، وتحفظ حتى الإعجاز الكرامة الوطنية لشعبها. وليست المشكلة أن يقول الآخرون وخصوصاً من العرب، أن لديهم تعبيراً مختلفاً عن دولتهم المستقلة التي يريدون. المهم أن يثبتوا القدرة على إثبات الأهلية بين الدول الصاعدة بكرامة إلى مصاف الأقوياء، وألا يكون عداء بعضهم لإيران وتآمرهم عليها شبيهاً بتآمرهم على المقاومة، لأنهما فضيحتان كبيرتان لخنوع وتخاذل هذا البعض، فقد قالت إيران ما قالته المقاومة، كل في ميدان، نعم إننا نستطيع.

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Jordan is positioning …. to precede Egypt ! الأردن يتموضع… لاستباق مصر!

Jordan is positioning …. to precede Egypt !

Written by Nasser Kandil,

Contrary to all the escalated indicators of the administration of the US President Donald Trump, it seems that the secret diplomacy is working effectively. After two days of the return of the Jordanian King from Washington, Jordan was targeting ISIS in the Syrian-Jordanian borders which are close to the Occupied Palestine near Al Yarmouk and Al Shajara, then it applied for an urgent join to Astana path that is sponsored by Moscow, Tehran and Ankara to cease-fire, it participated in the coordinated meeting proposing the inclusion of the armed groups in the Southern of Syria to the cease-fire and the war on ISIS and Al Nusra. These groups are funded by Saudi Arabia and directed by the MOC the US military operations room in Amman.

It cannot be imagined the swift Jordanian transformations in conjunction with the visit of the Jordanian King to Washington without the availability of three conditions; first, US demand or blessing or at least a support of this transformation, second, having Saudi encouragement or at least an acceptance, third, a green Israeli light especially the Jordanian air force for raids that have been implemented in sensitive accurate sites or at least not objecting that. The three conditions have one center necessarily, the US decision to support Astana path till the path of Geneva becomes ready and the effective  US participation in the war and the political track after the summit of the Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.

The current information says that Saudi Arabia and Turkey have cooperated to drive Jordan to do that transformation and positioning to hinder what is prepared by Washington and Moscow to grant Egypt the Arab seat in Astana Path. Riyadh which stood positively encouraging the path of the settlement in Lebanon was capable despite the scream of its leaders against the Iranian influence through their announced war on Hezbollah of discovering an indirect way through which it can encourage the ally that took the initiative, but they do not bear its responsibility however they bless its success and receive the congrats in case of its success. It seems that Jordan was selected, because it does not have the ability to implement raids without big international regional cover, it does not have the ability to bring the armed groups to Astana Path and the war on ISIS and Al Nusra without such a cover or even more, and because its gains from ensuring its security of this positioning are great in addition to its moral revenues. But most importantly are the implicit signs of the cooperation and the normalization of the governmental Syrian-Jordanian relations which Saudi Arabia cannot do directly at least right now.

Egypt was slow in moving toward Astana Path and the preparation to fill the gaps in the mechanisms of ceasing-fire, knowing that it is more qualified and acceptable; it is a source of relief for all the participants and the involved. Moreover, it symbolizes the Arab cover which is needed by Astana Path. Although the Jordanian step and its implications are important, but the time is not too late for Egypt to take a step that will lead to major transformations in the balances, and will grant the path toward the political solution and the war on terrorism a lot of momentum. Jordan becomes one of the neighboring countries which joined the path as Lebanon and Iraq, while Egypt forms the Arab partner which makes a positive balance with Turkey and Iran.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

الأردن يتموضع… لاستباق مصر!

فبراير 7, 2017

ناصر قنديل

– خلافاً لكل المؤشرات التصعيدية لإدارة الرئيس الأميركي دونالد ترامب، تبدو الدبلوماسية السرية تشتغل بفعالية، فخلال يومين من عودة الملك الأردني من واشنطن، كان الأردن يتحرّك لضربات تستهدف داعش في الحدود السورية الأردنية القريبة من فلسطين المحتلة، قرب منطقة اليرموك والشجرة، ثم يتوجّه بطلب انضمام عاجل إلى مسار أستانة الذي ترعاه موسكو وطهران وأنقرة لوقف النار، ويشارك في الاجتماع التنسيقي عارضاً ضمّ الجماعات المسلحة جنوب سورية لوقف النار وإعلان الحرب على داعش والنصرة، وهي الجماعات التي تديرها غرفة الموك الأميركية من عمان، وتموّلها السعودية.

– لا يمكن تخيّل التحولات الأردنية السريعة بالتزامن مع زيارة الملك الأردني لواشنطن، من دون توافر ثلاثة شروط، الأول طلب أميركي أو مباركة ودعم على الأقل لهذا التحوّل، الثاني الحصول على تشجيع سعودي أو قبول على الأقل، الثالث ضوء أخضر «إسرائيلي»، وخصوصاً لتنفيذ غارات بسلاح الجو الأردني في مناطق حساسة ودقيقة، أو عدم ممانعة على الأقل، والثلاثة محورها واحد بالضرورة قرار أميركي بدعم مسار أستانة، ريثما ينضج مسار جنيف والمشاركة الأميركية الفعالة في الحرب والمسار السياسي بعد قمة الرئيسين دونالد ترامب وفلاديمير بوتين.

– المعلومات المتداولة تقول إن السعودية وتركيا تعاونتا لدفع الأردن للقيام بالتحوّل والتموضع قطعاً للطريق على ما تعده واشنطن وموسكو لمنح مصر المقعد العربي في مسار أستانة، وأن الرياض التي وقفت بإيجابية لتشجيع مسار التسوية في لبنان، وقد استطاعت الرياض رغم صراخ قادتها عن النفوذ الإيراني وحربهم المعلنة على حزب الله، اكتشاف طريقة تشجيع مواربة لحليف يقوم بمبادرة تخترق جدار الجليد ولا يتحمّلون مسؤوليتها، بل يباركون نجاحها، ويقفون في صفوف متلقي التهنئة في حال النجاح، ويبدو أن الاختيار وقع على الأردن الذي يعرف أنه لا يملك قدرة تنفيذ غارات من دون غطاء دولي إقليمي كبير، ولا يملك قدرة جلب الجماعات المسلحة لمسار أستانة والحرب على النصرة وداعش من دون مثل هذه التغطية وأكثر، وأن مكاسبه بضمان أمنه من هذا التموضع كبيرة، عدا عن عائداته المعنوية، والأهم ما يرافق ذلك كله من علامات ضمنية لتعاون وتطبيع للعلاقات السورية الأردنية الحكومية لا تملك السعودية القيام بها مباشرة، الآن على الأقل.

– تباطأت مصر في التحرك نحو ملاقاة مسار أستانة والاستعداد لملء الفراغات في آليات وقف النار، وهي الأكثر أهلية ومقبولية، وتريح الجميع من مشاركين ومعنيين، وهي التي ترمز للغطاء العربي الذي يحتاجه مسار أستانة، ومع أهمية الخطوة الأردنية ومعانيها، يبقى أن الوقت لم يفت على خطوة مصرية سيكفي حدوثها ليحمل معه تحوّلات كبرى في التوازنات ويمنح المسار نحو الحل السياسي والحرب على الإرهاب قوة دفع كبيرة، ويصير الأردن واحداً من دول الجوار التي تنضم للمسار ومثلها يفعل لبنان والعراق، بينما تشكّل مصر الشريك العربي الذي يقيم التوازن الإيجابي مع تركيا وإيران.

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