Iraq Dialogue …. The start of politics حوار العراق… بداية السياسة

 

Iraq Dialogue …. The start of politics

يناير 24, 2017

Written by Nasser Kandil,

When a conference held in Iraq under the name of the dialogue, and in which the President of the Republic participated to grant it the protocol legitimacy, and when the Prime Minister, and the Speaker of the parliament participated in a speech without  compliments, and in which the political and the sectarian components involved to express publically their concerns and obsessions, and when the representatives of the Kurdistan region attend talking frankly about the self-determination and the secession, then this means that it is a public dialogue not a media manifestation that celebrates the victory of Mosul which is about to enter the crucial stage, and when you are invited to participate in this dialogue to attend, to witness, to ask , and to communicate then you have to witness that the Iraqis have surprised you that they started politics in its deep meaning, in  a way that surpasses the narrow limits of managing the authoritarian interests and the competition on sharing them. So the necessary expression must be first for the sponsor of the Dialogue the Deputy Speaker of the Parliament and the Head of the Iraqi Institute for the dialogue of thought; Sheikh Dr. Humam Hamoudi who has succeeded away from circulating his name as one of the figures of the politics-making in reserving a seat among the professional policy-makers.

In politics, it is clear that each of the main participants have recorded through his participation his interest by leaving his imprint in the success of the project of the internal settlement which is in circulation, through the attempt of reconciling between democracy that depends on voting and produces according to the Iraqi demography fears of the dominance of Shiites on the political and procedural decision, and a consonance that does not disable the mechanism of the country , confines it and abolishes the democracy, but those important players did not forget scoring points in the major conflict that is about to launch, its title is the Iraq’s Parliament 2018 which will be an image of new balances, but it will draw the new image of Iraq.

Politics and scoring points are present; it is clear from the words of Al-Abadi his announcement of the transition from the position of the Prime Minister in a way that is closer to proxy, to become a player who aspires to stay in the arena with the same position, a project of a future Prime Minister with a political speech, its basis is the success in liberating the Iraqi provinces which are under the control of ISIS and restoring them to the Iraqi sovereignty, in addition to his sponsorship of helping the army to get up from the setback of Mosul, targeting the political sect with a symbolism that targets whom he considers them rooted competitors  in the political game, at their forefront the former Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki, thus the supporters of Al-Maliki responded by saying; that the popular crowd which took upon itself the accomplishment and which was the most prominent party and has protected Baghdad and has paved the way for the reformation of the army has moved on before the new government, where Al Maliki was at the forefront of its sponsors. The problem with Al Abadi was that he has returned the Americans whom were brought out of Iraq by Al Maliki, while Mr. Ammar Al Hakim the Head of the National Alliance for which Al Maliki will belong, and which took over the responsibility of nominating Al Abadi clarified that the seven points which presented by Al Abadi are the alliance project, and that the crowd has been formed by the fatwa of reference and the alliance’s decision. During the dialogue and the communication the Speaker of the Parliament Salim Al Jabouri as the most powerful representative of Sunni participated by saying that the formation of the Iraqi scene within the multiple regions alone ensures the settlement. The Kurds at the spokesman of Barham Saleh announced their sticking to the right of determining the till the secession.

This wide area of the political engagement seems closer to the entry into the serious politics instead of being a division project. The sharp political conflict is waged this time carefully in order not to fall into the traps that make the victory on ISIS a political paper inside the Shiite house, since the popular crowd is a common investment that its assets cannot be distributed, or make this victory a gateway for the exit of the Sunni leaderships from the position of the defeated. The experience has taught all, now they are professing what they have learnt. The emergence of ISIS has showed the Sunnis that the strike of politics do not leave them immune from the dangers of who targets Iraq, even when it makes the title of its war sectarian. The Sunnis have spent high cost for the expansion of ISIS in provinces most of them are from them. Their leaders know how to deal with the disputes under the roof of the quest for consensus, not linking it with the regional variables that strengthen the positions of the countries which present themselves as sponsor for them as Turkey and Saudi Arabia. It became clear their inability to adjust the balances in their favor in the light of the war of Syria, as it is clear that they adapt themselves through their special considerations with the other regional involved in Iraq, not through the Iraqis’ considerations. The Shiite leaders disclose that they learnt the meaning of depriving ISIS from the incubating background, the importance not to neglect what is going on in the Sunni arena, and to be sufficient with the legitimacy of having control over the power according to the simple equations of democracy. Both of Mr. Ammar Al-Hakim and Al Sheikh Humam Hamoudi ensure in explaining the philosophy of the historical settlement which searches in the equation of the balance the need to comply with the need of democracy, while the Kurdish speech about the self-determination does not disturb anyone, so Adel Abdul Mahdi Barham Saleh replied that the Kurds do not want the secession and its circumstances are not mature yet, but when the opposite happens no one will wait our approval. The attendance of the Kurds in Baghdad’s Dialogue is a sign that neither they want nor the circumstances have got mature. Therefore the recalling is a political negotiation and everyone is ready and willing of that negotiation.

The determination and the openness are available, they are main conditions but not sufficient. The difficult equation between the consensus and the democracy is known by the Lebanese people that it is not just a desire. The Iraqis bet on the Saudi understanding and responding to the settlement requirements as they did in Lebanon, but they do not have yet enough signals, while Iran has a high representation through the Chairman of the Commission of the Foreign Affairs in Al Shura Council Alaeddin Broujerdi to say that it blesses, and the Chairman of the Commission of the Foreign Affairs in the Egyptian and the Jordanian Parliaments attend to say that we are awaiting, but this is not enough.

The big question which is faced by the Iraqi Dialogue is how Iraq is not a playground, since through its size, wealth, and its geographical position cannot be outside the attention, so in order not to be a playground it must be a player, and this means to have a clear position in the regional geography, not to be afraid of identifying the compass of its security between a concept that sees Israel as a source of danger, and a concept which sees the danger from Iran, and not to be afraid also from the engagement in forming a security economical bilateral with Syria that is imposed by the challenges, risks, interests, and roles, because without the first part is an internal confusion and variations, and without the second part is a red US line. So will the Iraqis wage the risks through these two issues? Or will the American and the Saudi precede them to cope with the settlements, and thus the complexities will be easy? Or will ISIS precede all and target Saudi Arabia?

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

 

حوار العراق… بداية السياسة

يناير 16, 2017

ناصر قنديل

– عندما ينعقد في العراق مؤتمر تحت عنوان الحوار ويشترك فيه إلى رئيس الجمهورية لمنحه الشرعية البروتوكولية رئيسا الحكومة والمجلس النيابي للخوض في خطاب بلا مجاملات وتشارك المكوّنات السياسية والطائفية للبوح بصوت عالٍ بمكنوناتها وهواجسها، ويحضر ممثلو إقليم كردستان متحدّثين بصراحة عن حق تقرير المصير والانفصال، فهذا يعني أنه حوار في الهواء الطلق وليس تظاهرة إعلامية تحشد للاحتفال بنصر الموصل الذي يوشك على دخول المرحلة الحاسمة، وعندما تُقيّض لك المشاركة في هذا الحوار حاضراً وشاهداً وسائلاً ومحاوراً، فعليك أن تشهد أن العراقيين فاجأوك بأنهم بدأوا بالسياسة، بمعناها العميق بما يتخطّى ضيق أفق إدارة المصالح السلطوية والتنافس على تقاسمها. والشهادة الواجبة أولاً لراعي الحوار نائب رئيس مجلس النواب ورئيس المعهد العراقي لحوار الفكر الشيخ الدكتور همام حمودي، الذي نجح من خارج التداول باسمه كواحد من شخصيات الصف الصانع للسياسة في ما مضى بحجز مقعد متقدّم بين الصنّاع المحترفين.

– في السياسة، الواضح أن كلاً من المشاركين الرئيسيين سجل بمشاركته اهتمامه وعنايته بترك بصمة في إنجاح مشروع التسوية الداخلية المطروحة في التداول، بمحاولة للتوفيق بين ديمقراطية تعتمد التصويت وتنتج وفقاً للديمغرافيا العراقية مخاوف طغيان الشيعة على القرار السياسي والإجرائي، وبالمقابل توافقية لا تشل آلة الدولة وتكبّلها، وتلغي الديمقراطية، لكن لم يغب عن هؤلاء اللاعبين الكبار تسجيل النقاط في صراع كبير يوشك على الانطلاق عنوانه برلمان العراق 2018 الذي سيكون صورة لتوازنات جديدة، ولكنه سيرسم صورة العراق الجديدة.

– السياسة وتسجيل النقاط حاضران، فالواضح من بين سطور كلمة العبادي إعلانه الانتقال من رئيس حكومة الضرورة بطريقة أقرب للوكالة، ليصير لاعباً طامحاً للبقاء في الملعب وبالمنصب ذاته، مشروع رئيس حكومة مقبل بخطاب سياسي قوامه، النجاح في تحرير المحافظات العراقية التي استعادها من يد داعش للسيادة العراقية، ورعايته لقيامة الجيش من نكسة الموصل، وتصويبه على الطائفية السياسية برمزية تستهدف من يراهم منافسين متجذّرين في اللعبة السياسية، وفي مقدمتهم الرئيس السابق للحكومة نور المالكي، ليردّ مناصرون للمالكي بالقول، الحشد الشعبي الذي تولى الإنجاز أبرز من حمى بغداد، وأفسح المجال لإعادة بناء الجيش انطلق قبل الحكومة الجديدة والمالكي كان في مقدمة رعاته. والمشكلة مع العبادي أنه أعاد الأميركيين الذين أخرجهم المالكي من العراق، بينما يوضح السيد عمار الحكيم كرئيس للتحالف الوطني الذي ينتمي إليه المالكي والذي تولى تسمية العبادي، أن النقاط السبع التي عرضها العبادي هي مشروع التحالف، وأن الحشد تشكل بفتوى المرجعية وقرار التحالفز ويدخل على خط الحوار والتجاذب رئيس مجلس النواب سليم الجبوري كممثل أقوى في الساحة السنية ليقول إن تشكيل المشهد العراقي ضمن الأقاليم المتعددة، وحده يضمن التسوية، ويعلن الأكراد بلسان برهم صالح تمسكهم بحق تقرير المصير حتى الانفصال.

– هذه المساحة الواسعة من الاشتباك السياسي تبدو أقرب لتمرين الدخول في السياسة الجدية، بدلاً من أن تبدو مشروع انقسام، فالصراع السياسي الحاد يُخاض هذه المرة بعناية عالية لعدم الوقوع في فخاخ تجعل النصر على داعش ورقة سياسية داخل البيت الشيعي باعتبار الحشد الشعبي استثماراً مشتركاً لا يمكن توزيع أرصدته، أو تجعل هذا النصر مدخلاً لخروج القيادات السنية في موقع المهزوم. فالتجربة علمت الجميع وها هم يجاهرون بما تعلّموه، أن ظهور داعش قال للسنة بأن الإضراب عن السياسة لا يتركهم بمنأى عن مخاطر مَن يستهدف العراق، حتى عندما يجعل عنوانه حرباً مذهبياً، فقد دفع السنة ثمناً غالياً لتمدّد داعش في محافظات أغلبها منهم، وتعلم قادتهم معالجة الخلافات تحت سقف السعي للتوافق، وعدم ربطه بمتغيرات إقليمية تعزز مواقع الدول التي تقدم نفسها كراعٍ لهم، مثل تركيا والسعودية، بات واضحاً عجزها عن تعديل الموازين لصالحها في ضوء حرب سورية، كما هو واضح أنها تتأقلم بحساباتها الخاصة مع المعنيين الإقليميين الآخرين في العراق، وليس بحسابات العراقيين. كما يفصح قادة الشيعة أنهم تعلموا معنى حرمان داعش من البيئة الحاضنة، وأهمية عدم إدارة الظهر لما يجري في الساحة السنية، والاكتفاء بشرعية إمساك السلطة وفقاً لمعادلات الديمقراطية البسيطة، كما يؤكد كل من السيد عمار الحكيم والشيخ همام حمودي في شرح فلسفة التسوية التاريخية، الباحثة عن معادلة توازن الحاجة للتوافق مع الحاجة للديمقراطية، بينما لا يقلق أحداً الكلام الكردي عن حق تقرير مصير، فيجيب عادل عبد المهدي برهم صالح في منصة الحوار ذاته، الكرد لا يريدون الانفصال وظروفه ليست ناضجة، وعندما يحدث العكس لن ينتظر أحد موافقتنا، ومجيء الأكراد لحوار بغداد علامة على أن لا هم يريدون ولا الظروف نضجت، وأن التذكير هو تفاوض سياسي، والجميع جاهز وراغب بهذا التفاوض.

– تتوافر العزيمة وتحضر المصارحة. وهما شرطان أساسيان لكنهما غير كافيين، فالمعادلة الصعبة بين التوافق والديمقراطية يعرف اللبنانيون أنها ليست رغبة فقط، ويراهن العراقيون على تفهّم سعودي وتجاوب مع متطلبات التسوية، كما فعلوا في لبنان، لكن ليست لديهم بعد إشارات كافية بينما تحضر إيران بمستوى تمثيل عالٍ عبر رئيس لجنة الأمن والخارجية في مجلس الشورى علاء الدين بروجردي لتقول إنها تبارك، ويحضر رئيسا لجنة الشؤون الخارجية في البرلمانيين المصري والأردني ليقولا إننا ننتظر، لكن لا يكفي أهل العريس والمدعوين ليكتمل العرس، بينما العروس وأهلها غائبون.

– السؤال الكبير الذي يواجهه الحوار العراقي هو: كيف لا يكون العراق ملعباً، وهو بحجمه وثرواته وموقعه الجغرافي لا يمكن أن يكون خارج الاهتمام، فكي لا يكون ملعباً يجب أن يصير لاعباً. وهذا يعني أن يملك موقعاً واضحاً في الجغرافيا الإقليمية، لا يخشى تحديد بوصلة لأمنه وسط تجاذب بين مفهوم يرى «إسرائيل» مصدر الخطر وآخر يرى الخطر من إيران، ولا يخشى الانخراط في تشكيل ثنائية أمنية واقتصادية مع سورية تفرضها التحديات والمخاطر والمصالح والأدوار، ودون الأولى ارتباك داخلي وتباينات، ودون الثانية خط أحمر أميركي، فهل يقدم العراقيون على خوض المخاطر فيهما؟ أم يسبقهم الأميركي والسعودي بالتأقلم على خط التسويات فتهون التعقيدات؟ أم يسبق داعش الجميع ويضرب ضربته في السعودية؟

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Syria is the balance of power & Iraq is the balance of unity سورية ميزان القوة والعراق ميزان الوحدة سورية ميزان القوة والعراق ميزان الوحدة

Syria is the balance of power & Iraq is the balance of unity

Written by Nasser Kandil,

There was a prevailed saying that linked the power of the Arabs with the unity of Egypt and Syria and their weakness in their separation throughout almost a century, this saying has proved its trueness in all the standards of the historical and the contemporary approach, but the one who has formulated this equation did not pay attention that the unity of Egypt and Syria has been always preceded by the unity of Syria and Iraq that led to such an equation, as  the case in the Umayyad and Abbasid eras and in the war of Salah Aidin Al-Yabuobi toward Palestine. When Egypt and Syria have been unified in October War   in 1973 without this solid Syrian Iraqi base, the war has lost its opportunity in achieving its goals once the position of Egypt has changed. And for a period of time there was a political equation that talked about S-S, the intention here is Syria and Saudi Arabia and their meeting as a condition to compensate the absence of Egypt. It was proven that what was produced by this equation at the absence of solid Iraqi Syrian base was mere a truce between two Arab lines, a line that mortgages the fate of Palestine with negotiation, and a line that sees its future with the resistance, however at the moment of choice, the two lines collided and the gains which seemed that they are the gains of S-S has been fallen in Lebanon and elsewhere.

To the extent that the Syrian Iraqi relationship seems a firm insurance policy to the Arab situation, it seems that the West had big interests in its vandalizing and ensuring the weakness of its pivots during more than a half of a century. Repeatedly it was indulgent toward the birth of Egyptian Syrian cooperation or Syrian Saudi cooperation, but the Syrian Iraqi cooperation and integration has remained among the taboos for which national slogans have been formed to justify them.  So for a long time the Syrian Iraqi conflict was a substitute for the most important conflicts and a background for the absurdist conflicts, as replacing the priority of the Arab-Israeli conflict with evoking the Iraqi-Iranian one. At the present time, the Arab situations try to make a reformation that perceives the consequences of the wars of a half of a century ago, after the mightiest wars have ravaged all the Arab countries under the slogan of change and revolution, and before the war becomes the war of terrorism, chaos, and division. Syria and Iraq seem to be closer and coherent in fate than any time ago, where the geographical neighborhood increases

Israel which is the first involved in all the elements and the sources of power in the region does not seem absent for observing and following-up the Syrian Iraqi relationship, but the US and the Turkish sensors seem to be ready for intervening in necessary to prevent every Syrian Iraqi rapprochement and to disable it , and if it is needed to put ISIS in the bordered area and managing the war depending on it to keep the area between the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers a weak flank area, and thus to be subject to present and the future tamper., by presenting issues that prevent their linkage. Therefore will not be Turkish withdrawal from Ba’shiqah if it is related with a Turkish withdrawal from the Syrian territories, and there will not be US support to liberate Al Mosul if it is related with having control over the Iraqi borders with Syria.

This time the understanding and the integration between Syria and Iraq seems the necessary prescription for recovery, not mere an additional way for further strength and recovery. The salvation of the two countries from the risk of terrorism does not seem possible without a direct cooperation between their two armies, and having control over the borders before some of the Syrian geography turns to be a temporary shelter for returning back to Iraq and vice versa. While the powerful Syria against the Israeli threat as a criterion for the winning of Syria in the outcome of its last war depends on the geographic linkage with its strategic depth in Iran, and through this linkage it can maintain the position of Syria as a pivotal base for the forces of the resistance. while the economic steadfastness of Iraq as a main salvation from the state of regression which it experienced since the US blockade and then the occupation seems related with the integration with Syria and its access to the oil port across it to the Mediterranean Sea, this integration will be stronger and ever stronger if it is an Iraqi Iranian Syrian integration, as it seems that the standard of the Iraqi exit from the US political auspices  depends on the Iraqi daring to converge Syria and to meet it.

As much as it seems that the recovery of Syria and the Arab situation from the weakness will be through recapturing the sources of force which stand against the Israeli challenges, it seems that the recovery of Iraq and the Arabs from the division and the strife will be by democratic consensus formulas that end the risk of strife and division through surpassing the sectarian tensions which either they ignite from Iraq and thus ignite in all the region, or they cool down in Iraq and thus cool down in all the region, as well as through an Arab Kurdish understanding where there is no place for the Israeli in drawing his hidden lines, on the contrary this understanding will reassure the Kurds for their legitimate aspirations, and provide innovative solutions for the chronic issues of the conflict, in exchange of the reassurance to the unity of Iraq and the cohesion of the sources of its force. Therefore the Iraqi accordance becomes a recipe for reassurance against the sectarian, national and ethnic tensions feared by any Arab country, because they threaten of its inflammation or fragmentation.

The power of the Arabs is by the power of Syria, and the unity of their countries is by the unity of Iraq. The strong Syria with unified Iraq is Arab recipe for the power and the unity, where Egypt and the Gulf will have an important place in that map. This is the unity and the strength of the Levant, the stable starting point for every unity and for every power.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh

سورية ميزان القوة والعراق ميزان الوحدة سورية ميزان القوة والعراق ميزان الوحدة

ناصر قنديل
– سادت مقولة تضع قوة العرب بوحدة مصر وسورية وضعفهم بتفرقهما، طوال قرن تقريباً، وثبتت صحتها في مقاييس المقاربة التاريخية والمعاصرة كلها، لكن الذي لم ينتبه له من صاغ هذه المعادلة هو أن وحدة مصر وسورية كانت دائماً مسبوقة بوحدة سورية والعراق كي تحقق هذه النتيجة، كما هو الحال في العهدين الأموي والعباسي وفي حرب صلاح الدين الأيوبي نحو فلسطين، وعندما توحّدت مصر وسورية في حرب تشرين عام 1973 دون هذه القاعدة السورية العراقية الصلبة فقدت الحرب فرصتها في بلوغ أهدافها بمجرد اهتزاز موقف مصر. وسادت لفترة معادلة سياسية تتحدّث عن السين السين، والقصد سورية والسعودية، وتلاقيهما كشرط لتعويض غياب مصر، وثبت أن ما أنتجته هذه المعادلة بغياب قاعدة سورية عراقية صلبة كان مجرد هدنة بين خطين عربيين خط يرهن مصير فلسطين بالتفاوض وخط يرى مستقبلها في المقاومة. وفي لحظة الاختيار تصادم الخطان وأطيحت ما بدأ أنها مكتسبات السين سين، في لبنان وسواه.

– بالقدر الذي تبدو العلاقة السورية العراقية بوليصة تأمين راسخة للوضع العربي، يبدو أن الغرب قد اهتمّ كثيراً بتخريبها وضمان ضعف مرتكزاتها خلال أكثر من نصف قرن، وهو تساهل مراراً بولادة تعاون مصري سوري أو سعودي سوري، لكن التعاون والتكامل السوري العراقي بقي من المحرّمات التي صيغت لتبريرها أحياناً شعارات قومية، جعلت لفترة غير قصيرة الصراع السوري العراقي بديلاً عن الصراعات الأهم وخلفية للصراعات العبثية، كحال استبدال أولوية الصراع العربي «الإسرائيلي» باستحضار الصراع العراقي الإيراني. وفي التوقيت الراهن الذي تتجه فيه الأوضاع العربية لإعادة تأسيس تستوعب نتائج حروب نصف قرن مضى، وقد عصفت أعتى الحروب وآخرها ببلاد العرب كلها، تحت شعار التغيير والثورة، قبل أن تصبح حرب الإرهاب والفوضى والتقسيم، تظهر سورية ويظهر العراق أشدّ قرباً وترابطاً بالمصير من أي مرحلة مضت، يزيدهما الجوار الجغرافي حاجة لبعضهما البعض، ويزيد من حاجة العرب لهما معاً.

– إسرائيل كمعني أول بكل عناصر القوة ومصادرها في المنطقة لا تبدو غائبة عن مراقبة ومتابعة العلاقة السورية العراقية. وتبدو المجسّات الأميركية والتركية منصوبة وجاهزة للتدخل عند الضرورة لمنع كل تقارب سوري عراقي ووضع العصي في دواليبه. وإن اقتضى الأمر زرع داعش في المنطقة الحدودية، وإدارة الحرب على داعش بما يبقي منطقة ما بين نهرَي دجلة والفرات خاصرة رخوة لزجة صالحة للعبث الحاضر والمستقبلي، وتقديم التعامل المزدوج مع قضايا واستحقاقات البلدين كإغراء لعدم ربط ملفات أحدهما بالآخر، فلا انسحاب تركي من بعشيقة إذا ارتبط بالانسحاب التركي من الأراضي السورية، ولا دعم أميركي لتحرير الموصل إذا ارتبط بالإمساك بالحدود العراقية مع سورية.

– هذه المرة يبدو تفاهم وتكامل العراق وسورية كوصفة الضرورة للتعافي، وليس مجرد طريق إضافية لمزيد من القوة والعافية، فلا يبدو خلاص البلدين من خطر الإرهاب ممكناً بلا تعاون مباشر بين جيشيهما، وإمساك الحدود قبل أن يتحوّل بعض الجغرافيا السورية ملاذاً مؤقتاً للعودة إلى العراق والعكس بالعكس، فيما تبدو سورية القوية بوجه الخطر «الإسرائيلي» كمعيار لفوز سورية في حصيلة حربها آخر الطريق، وقفاً على تواصل سورية الجغرافي مع عمقها الاستراتيجي في إيران، والحفاظ عبر هذا التواصل على موقع سورية كقاعدة محورية لقوى المقاومة. كما يبدو الصعود الاقتصادي للعراق كخشبة خلاص رئيسة من وضع التراجع الذي يعيشه منذ الحصار الأميركي ولاحقاً الاحتلال رهناً بالتكامل مع سورية ووصوله لمنفذ نفطي عبرها على البحر المتوسط سيكون أقوى وأفعل بقدر ما يكون عراقياً إيرانياً سورياً. كما يبدو معيار الخروج العراقي من تحت الوصاية السياسية الأميركية بمقدار التجرؤ العراقي على التقارب من سورية والتلاقي معها.

– بمقدار ما يقاس تعافي سورية وتعافي الوضع العربي معها من أمراض الضعف، باسترداد سورية لمصادر القوة التي تقف بوجه التحديات «الإسرائيلية»، يبدو قياس تعافي العراق وتعافي العرب معه من أمراض الانقسام والفتن، بصيغ توافقية ديمقراطية تسووية تنهي مخاطر الفتن والتقسيم، عبر تخطي التوترات المذهبية التي إما أن تشتعل من العراق فتشعل المنطقة أو تنطفئ في العراق فتهدأ المنطقة، وعبر تفاهم عربي كردي لا مكان لـ«الإسرائيلي» في كتابة سطوره الخفية، يطمئن الأكراد لتطلعاتهم المشروعة ويقدم حلولاً مبتكرة لقضايا النزاع المزمنة، مقابل الاطمئنان لوحدة العراق وتماسك مصادر قوته، ويصير التوافق العراقي وصفة اطمئنان للتوترات المذهبية والقومية والعرقية التي يخشاها كل بلد عربي وتهدد بإشعاله أو تفتيته.

– قوة العرب بقوة سورية ووحدة بلدانهم بوحدة العراق. سورية قوية مع عراق موحّد وصفة عربية للقوة والوحدة، يصير معها لمصر والخليج مكان لائق في خريطة القوة والوحدة، هذه هي وحدة بلاد الشام وقوتها نقطة البداية الثابتة لكل وحدة ولكل قوة.

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Syrian-Iraqi War Report – January 18, 2017: War Against ISIS

18.01.2017

Clashes continued in the city of Deir Ezzor where government forces were repelling ISIS attacks on the Deir Ezzor Airport and nearby areas. Cemetry, Al Fourat University, Al-Maqabis Production and Jiraiya were the main areas of the confrontation. ISIS also attempted to capture the al-Assad Hospital but failed to do this.

Pro-ISIS sources report that over 50 government troops were killed and about 10 units of military equipment destroyed on January 16 and January 17. Pro-government outlets claim that about 70 ISIS members have been killed since January 16.

Over 100 Syrian soldiers trained by Russian military advisors near Damascus were deployed in the Tyas Airbase in the province of Homs, according to pro-government sources. The deployment of fresh troops was aimed to improve the Syrian army’s combat capabilities and to contribute to offensive efforts in the area.

Two Syrian generals – Rafat Ibrahim Nasif and Bilal Bilal – and at least six troops were killed in a militant bombing attack in the town of Harasta near Damascus on January 18, according to the so-called Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. A number of government fighters were also reported to be in a critical condition.

Following previous gains in the Wadi Barada area northwest of Damascus, the Syrian army and its allies entered the militant-held town of Ayn al-Fijah and seized over a half of it. Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, Ahrar al-Sham and other militant groups operating in Ayn al-Fijah, Dayr Miqrin and Kafr Az Zayt are in a very bad military situation because government forces control strategic heights north of these villages. Experts believe that soon Ayn al-Fijah and nearby areas will fall into the hands of the Syrian army.

Iraqi security forces (ISF) have cleared from ISIS militants the Mosul Park and the areas of Al-Muhandisin, Nurqal, Taqafah and the Ancient Nineveh, de-facto setting up control over the whole eastern part of Mosul. ISF units have also gained control over 5 Mosul bridges from the eastern side of the city.

As soon as eastern Mosul is secure, ISF will start preparation to retake the rest of the city. Iraqi forces will need to reach Mosul from the southern and western directions before launching this advance.

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Report: ISIL Chief Forcing Foreign Militants to Choose Suicide Attacks in Mosul or Returning Home

Report: ISIL Chief Forcing Foreign Militants to Choose Suicide Attacks in Mosul or Returning Home
TEHRAN (FNA)- The ISIL chief, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, has set an ultimatum on foreign militants in the Iraqi city of Mosul to either carry out suicide attacks against Iraqi security forces or return to their home countries, a source told local media on Monday.

The source told Al-Sumaria News that the ISIL leader also gave the militants the promise of going to heaven and being rewarded with 72 virgins, however the ISIL leader seems desperate to talk them into conducting suicide attacks, as they are, otherwise, destined to be executed with the ISIL group being known to harshly kill militants who try to leave the terrorist outfit.

However, it can also be assumed that convincing the terrorists to return to their home countries is for conducting terror attacks or initiating their own insurgencies, he said.

The take-it-or-leave-it offer to ISIL’s foreign militants comes as other reports said earlier that the terror outfit ringleader has demoted the group’s commanders in Eastern Mosul due to dramatic losses to Iraqi government forces over the past two weeks.

A source said Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi withdrew the “emir” designation from all leaders of the militant group in the Eastern part of the city due to “delinquency and escaping” at battlefields in face of advancing Iraqi government troops.

“Baghdad has proscribed the occupation of any leading position by emirs in the Eastern section, and to instead deploy them to the frontlines as regular fighters as a sort of punishment,” said the source, who asked not to be identified.

Iraqi government forces, backed by a aircraft and advisers from a US-led military coalition, launched two weeks ago the second phase of a major campaign that started in October to retake Mosul from ISIL militants. Since then, reports have been recurrent about divisions, infighting and accusations of treason among the group’s leaderships.

Iraqi military and police commanders have said recently they became in control over 90 percent of the eastern region of Mosul, and hope to move onwards to the West, where ISIL still maintains outstanding strongholds, and where Baghdadi is widely believed to shelter.

Earlier this week, Iraqi troops have retaken the Mosul University campus, the most remarkable ISIL stronghold in Eastern Mosul.

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Aleppo announces the end of the regional Turkey … it votes in France حلب تُعلن نهاية تركيا الإقليمية … وتصوّت في فرنسا

 

ديسمبر 1, 2016

Written by Nasser Kandil,

Within two sequent days the Syrian army and the allies succeeded in a sudden accelerated way in resolving tens of the neighborhoods in the eastern of Aleppo recording a qualitative military development that equals half of the victory’s way and the acceleration of the second half. The debate at any level is no longer related to the status of Aleppo in the war on Syria even if the voices of denial emerge to depreciate the status of Aleppo after they raised it to a position that equals the whole war. Aleppo is the second capital of Syria but it is the gate of the regional role of Turkey. Simply it can be said that without the Turkish role in the war on Syria there was no war. Turkey has changed the course of war by the force of geography and by the motive of  illusions till it can be said that as Turkey was the key of the war on Syria, Aleppo is the key of the Turkish role.

It was clear that since the Turkish retreat in order to normalize the relations with Russia, the Ottoman Turkey has faded without return and there was an attempt of rehabilitation in Ankara to draw the Turkish regional role in the region. The result was not realistic it based on the pretention to be clever and arrogance due to the assumption of the ability to grab a role in Syria and Iraq entitled an influence that affects Mosul and Aleppo, so it has moved and intervened on that basis. The Turks along with the Qataris have tried till the last moment to support the armed groups in Aleppo, as they have tried to make Al Bab city a goal for their armies publicly; moreover they planned to create a similar scene in Mosul, they made Tal Afar one of their red lines, but what has happened and what is going to happen in Aleppo says that the starting of the end of the Turkish regional role will be awesome, because there is no longer humility in the demands and aspirations till it became an outcome of an equation either winning everything or losing everything, here it is towards losing everything. Turkey might be the saver which ends the battle in Aleppo politically by announcing the exit of Al Nusra front and the joining of the other groups, knowing that all of them belong to Ankara from Ahrar Al Sham to the group of Nour Din Zanki to the system of the truce, but now all of them are crushed and dismantled along with the regional role of Turkey.

With the loss of the bet on Aleppo where the Turks said that it is a war of a year at least and after putting red lines that prevent Turkey from progressing towards Al Bab city and the same towards Tal Afar. Turkey becomes a décor in the equations of the region; after the Muslim Brotherhood has become a décor as well in the scene of the terrorism which is led by Al-Qaeda organization. Now the Turkish government is seeking for an honorable solution from Moscow after it was prevented from progressing towards Al Bab and a similar solution for preventing it towards Tal Afar and Mosul from Tehran, by announcing the understanding on sticking to the unity of Syria and Iraq, and accepting applying the items of the security understanding with China by making the leader of Uighur group the responsible of the extremists of the Chinese descent.

Meantime, while France was witnessing the resounding news coming from Aleppo announcing the victories of the Syrian army, it was waging the elections of choosing the presidential candidate for the center-right who will probably become the new President of France. Between Alain Juppe and Francois Fillon and despite the intergradation between economy and politics Syria was the crossroad, Juppe wanted the traditional slogans like his predecessors as Hillary Clinton in America; the hostile position against Syria and the nonsense speech about a war on terrorism without a cooperation with Russia and without a coordination with the Syrian country, as well as sticking to the Syrian opposition which everyone knows that it is just a purse for filling the militants of Al-Qaeda organization, while Fillon is as Donald Trump through his harsh populist racist national speech calling to get out of hypocrisy and arrogance, and to stick to the French interests in confronting the terrorism and a solution for the flow of the refugees. This means the preparation to coordinate with the Syrian country and its army. So the victory in Aleppo is a golden vote for Fillon at the ballot boxes.

Syria formulates the equations of the new world in a race between savage globalization that globalizes the terrorism and a harsh nationalism through which the nations and the people reevaluate their considerations and reposition behind the lines of the obvious interests not behind the illusions and the imperial dreams under false slogans entitled democracy, which its promotion is funded by the Gulf countries and which are waged by virtual armies entitled oppositions which do not form more than fabricated banners made to cover the issue of giving the security of the Mediterranean Sea to Al-Qaeda organization. While the obvious national interests say that the way for resolving the crisis of the flow of the displaced people is by the recovering of the Syrian country and getting rid of terrorism. As the savage globalization was passing through destroying the walls of Syria and its solid structures to ensure the passage of oil and gas pipelines even under the guarding of Al-Qaeda, the rising harsh cross-world nationalism which means the globalized seems that it has a mandatory way, it is supporting the recovering of Syria, the national country, because solving the issue of the refugees in Europe and the prevention of sending the terrorism to its capitals reflect the common European nationalisms and pass by enhancing the Syrian nationalism and supporting it to be a solid barrier that protects the social and the political security of the West

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

 

 

 

حلب تُعلن نهاية تركيا الإقليمية … وتصوّت في فرنسا

نوفمبر 28, 2016

ناصر قنديل

 خلال يومين متتاليين نجح الجيش السوري والحلفاء بحسم مفاجئ ومتسارع لعشرة أحياء في شرق حلب، مسجلاً تطوراً عسكرياً نوعياً يعادل نصف طريق النصر وتسارع النصف الثاني، ولم يعُد للنقاش في أيّ مستوى الحديث عن مكانة حلب في الحرب على سورية، ولو خرجت أصوات الإنكار تهوّن من مكانة حلب الآن بعدما رفعتها إلى مقام يعادل كلّ الحرب، حلب عاصمة سورية الثانية ولكنها بوابة الدور الإقليمي لتركيا، ويمكن ببساطة القول لولا الدور التركي في الحرب على سورية، لما كانت هذه الحرب، فهي الثقل الذي غيّر مجرى الحرب بقوة الجغرافيا وبدفع الأوهام حتى صار يصحّ القول، كما إنّ تركيا مفتاح الحرب على سورية، فحلب هي مفتاح الدور التركي.

– كان واضحاً منذ التراجع التركي طلباً للتطبيع مع روسيا، أنّ تركيا العثمانية قد ولّت إلى غير رجعة، وأنّ إعادة توصيف مرنة تجري في أنقرة لرسم الدور الإقليمي التركي في المنطقة، وجاءت الحصيلة غير واقعية تستند للتذاكي والغرور، بفرضية القدرة على انتزاع دور في سورية والعراق عنوانه نفوذ يطال الموصل وحلب، ورسمت أطر الحركة والتدخل على هذا الأساس، وحاول الأتراك ومعهم قطر حتى اللحظة الأخيرة تقديم حقن الدعم للجماعات المسلحة في حلب، كما حاولوا جعل مدينة الباب هدفاً لدخول جيشهم علناً، ورسموا للموصل مشهداً مماثلاً وجعلوا تلعفر واحداً من خطوطهم الحمر. لكن ما جرى ويجري وسيجري في حلب يقول إنّ بداية النهاية لهذا الدور الإقليمي التركي تأتي مروّعة، فقد غاب التواضع في الطلبات والتطلعات حتى صارت نتيجة معادلة ربح كلّ شيء أو خسارة كلّ شيء، هي خسارة كلّ شيء، وإلا لكانت تركيا عراب الحلّ الذي ينهي المعركة في حلب سياسياً بإعلان خروج جبهة النصرة وانضمام سائر الجماعات وكلها تابعة لأنقرة من أحرار الشام إلى جماعة نور الدين زنكي لمنظومة الهدنة، لكن ها هم جميعاً يُسحَقون ويتفكّكون، ومعهم يسقط الدور الإقليمي لتركيا.

– مع خسارة رهان حلب الذي قال الأتراك إنه حرب سنة على الأقل، وترسيم خطوط حمر تمنع تركيا من التقدم نحو مدينة الباب، ومثلها نحو تلعفر، تصير تركيا ديكوراً تجميلياً في معادلات المنطقة، وقد صار الأخوان المسلمون ديكوراً تجميلياً في مشهد الإرهاب الذي يقوده تنظيم القاعدة. وها هي الحكومة التركية تتسوّل حلاً مشرفاً لمنعها من التقدّم نحو الباب من موسكو وحلاً مشابهاً مثله لمنعها من التقدّم نحو تلعفر والموصل من طهران بإعلان التفاهم على التمسك بوحدة سورية والعراق، وترتضي تطبيق بنود التفاهم الأمني مع الصين بتسليم زعيم جماعة الإيغور المتطرفين من أصول صينية.– على إيقاع موازٍ كانت فرنسا تشهد مع دوي الأنباء الآتية من حلب معلنة انتصارات الجيش السوري، تخوض انتخابات اختيار المرشح الرئاسي ليمين الوسط الذي سيصير على الأرجح رئيس فرنسا المقبل، وبين ألان جوبيه وفرانسوا فيون، رغم تداخل الاقتصادي بالسياسي كانت سورية هي المفترق، حيث يردّد جوبيه شعارات سابقيه التقليدية، كما هيلاري كلينتون في أميركا، النبرة العدائية لسورية والكلام الفارغ عن حرب على الإرهاب دون تعاون مع روسيا وتنسيق مع الدولة السورية، وتمسك أعرج بمعادلة معارضة سورية يعرف القاصي والداني، أنها مجرد كيس لتعبئة مسلّحي تنظيم القاعدة، بربطة عنق. بينما فيون، كما دونالد ترامب، بخطاب وطنية فجّة شعبوية وعنصرية، يدعو للخروج من النفاق والغرور، والوقوف عند حدود المصالح الفرنسية بمواجهة مع الإرهاب وحل لتدفق اللاجئين، وهذا يعني الاستعداد للتنسيق مع الدولة السورية وجيشها، وكان نصر حلب صوتاً ذهبياً لفيون في صناديق الاقتراع.

– سورية تصيغ معادلات العالم الجديد في سباق بين عولمة متوحشة تعولم معها الإرهاب، وبين وطنية فجة تراجع فيها الأمم والشعوب حساباتها وتتواضع لتتموضع خلف خطوط المصالح الواضحة، لا خلف الأوهام والأحلام الإمبراطورية بشعارات كاذبة عنوانها الديمقراطية، التي تمول تعميمها دول الخليج، وتخوضها جيوش افتراضية اسمها المعارضات التي لا تشكل أكثر من يافطات مصنعة لتغطية تسليم أمن البحر المتوسط لتنظيم القاعدة. والمصالح الوطنية الواضحة تقول إن طريق حل أزمة تدفق النازحين هي بقيامة الدولة السورية، ومثلها إبعاد شبح الإرهاب، ومثلما كانت العولمة المتوحشة تمرّ بتكسير جدران سورية وتحطيم صخورها الصلبة، لضمان مرور أنابيب النفط والغاز ولو بحراسة تنظيم القاعدة ودفع الخوة له مقابل ذلك، تبدو الوطنية الفجة الصاعدة والعابرة للعالم، أي المعولمة، لها ممر إلزامي هو مساندة قيامة سورية، الدولة الوطنية، باعتبار حل قضية اللاجئين في أوروبا ومنع تصدير الإرهاب إلى عواصمها يعبران عن مشتركات الوطنيات الأوروبية، ويمران بتعزيز الوطنية السورية والاستثمار عليها كجدار صلب يحمي أمن الغرب الاجتماعي والسياسي والأمني.

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No Guarantees from the States Sponsoring Terrorists


 Sunday, 20 November 2016 12:33

DAMASCUS, (ST)_ Self-government for terrorists in Eastern Aleppo is totally rejected by the Syrian Government, underscored Mr. Walid Al-Moallem, Deputy Premier and Foreign Affairs and Expatriates Minister.

Terrorists in eastern Aleppo have deterred civilians from leaving through the safe passages provided by the Government, Minister Al-Moallem said, citing the demonstrations by the population in Eastern Aleppo against the terrorists

The duty of the Syrian State is to salvage the besieged civilians in Eastern Aleppo from terrorists, reiterated Minister Al-Moallem.

Terrorists were given the chance to leave for Edlib or to stay in Eastern Aleppo making reconciliations, given the pardon given President Bashar Assad and its extension for another 3 months.

De Mistura said he had no Guarantees from the States sponsoring the terrorists, declared Minister Al-Moallem, who held before the press conference a meeting with UN envoy Staffan De Mistura.

Nothing new from De Mistura whatsoever, said Minister Al-Moallem, recalling the terrorists rejection to allow safe exit for the wounded civilians in eastern Aleppo.

The political solution is the basis for ending the crisis in Syria, stressed Minister Al-Moallem, in reply to a question, adding “we believe in the UN role and there is no alternative for such a role.”

Minister Al-Moallem  clarified that it should, however, be the UN which respects the sovereignty of its members, stressing that We always welcome a Syrian-Syrian dialogue and welcome such a meeting in Syria or in Geneva.

The USA exploits Kurds factor and then brings the Turkish role and both are rejected by Raqa Arab civilians, outlined Minister Al-Moallem.

We are dealing with the Turkish tools -terrorists- and we would never accept any Turkish soldier in Syria, Minister Al-Moallem added.

We have always been pushing for a political solution. The headquarters for the terrorists and their grassroots are in Edlib near the Turkish borders. If they choose any other place, there is no objection, outlined Minister Al-Moallem.

There is daily coordination with Russia in the political and military fields, Minister Al-Moallem said, citing the shared interest between Syrian Army and Iraqi one as not to allow Daesh to penetrate into Syria.

“The battle of the Iraqi soldiers to liberate Mosul is our battle too,” outlined Minister Al-Moallem.

“We are with the US People choice and it is premature to predict the coming US policy regarding Syria,” said Minister Al-Moallem in reply to another question.

The US Former Administration strategy on Syria, which spent millions of dollars on what they called moderate opposition, which later joined Al-Nusra, is filled with an accumulation of mistakes which led nowhere, al-Moallem said, asserting the need as  to correct such a policy through the US-Russian dialogue.

Minister Al-Moallem expressed the belief asserting that Russia is a fundamental factor in Syria and in the fight against terrorism so the need for dialogue between Moscow and Washington is as to fight terrorism.

There is no link nor coordination between Syria and Turkey regarding the Turkish aggression on Syria and Syria looks at those terrorists as to be eliminated, asserting that  the Turkish support to these terrorist factions is clear for all.

We should not over exaggerate as the arrival of chemical weapons inspectors, Minister Al-Moallem said in reply to a question.

“We are proud of national cohesiveness among all spectra of the Syrian People.” Minister Al-Moallem reiterated.

The coming US administration has to curb the states which support terrorists groups and also to stop its support for terrorist groups, Minister Al-Moallem underlined.

UNDOF has received guarantees from Qatar and Israel as not to target UNDOF  and their return has no political indications as they returned to their normal position, Minister Al-Moallem said in reply to another question.

In the Egyptian discourse, there is progress but less than what we hope. Egypt, the great country in its people and Army, cannot stand only watching, Minister Al-Moallem declared.

We sympathize with the Egyptian Army which is fighting terrorism in Sinai, Minister Al-Moallem added.

Hassan Abdul Azim, (Left)

The best guarantee is the non-arrest of Hassan Abdul Azim, who travels abroad and returns and gives mumbo-jumbo declarations. We welcome the return of any Syrian, even if he left illegally, Minister Al-Moallem said in reply to other questions.

There are two battles: Mosul and Aleppo. There is international consensus to fight terrorism in Mosul and there is international hysteria as regards the fight against terrorists in Aleppo; they aim to salvage Al-Nusra, thinking that it threatens the Syrian Government, Minister Al-Moallem added in reply to other questions.

There is no self-administration in Eastern Aleppo, citing the demonstrations against terrorists , Minister Al-Moallem reiterated, asserting that the decision is to restore normal life to all of Aleppo and to liberate Eastern Aleppo from terrorists.

There are changes in the international arena, Minister Al-Moallem added and Lauded the steadfastness of the Syrians and the alliance among Syria, Iran, Russia and Hezbollah.

Economy is the basis for Russian and Turkey relation and Turkey is an invading country which assists terrorists and launches aggression against our sovereignty, Minister Al-Moallem added in the conference.

No doubts, we will implement the decision of the Syrian leadership as to cleanse Aleppo from terrorists and liberate it, Minister Al-Moallem concluded.

 

Dr. Mohammad Abdo Al-Ibrahim

alibrahim56@hotmail.com

 

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SouthFront: Syrian Army nears total victory in Aleppo amid advances on all fronts

The situation for insurgents in eastern Aleppo seems utterly hopeless with the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) advancing on four fronts in the city over the past 48 hours, thus cementing the siege of increasingly isolated rebel-held districts in Syria’s largest city.

With Aleppo’s liberation arguably the top priority of the SAA’s manpower and resources, it will take a miracle or perhaps foreign military intervention for beleaguered rebels to regain the initiative in the battle for Aleppo, often dubbed ‘the mother of all battles’.

Our partners at http://www.SouthFront.org have more on the story:

Syria, Iraq War Report, November 21, 2016

If you’re able, and if you like our content and approach, please support the project. Our work wouldn’t be possible without your help: PayPal: southfront@list.ru or via: http://southfront.org/donate/ or via: https://www.patreon.com/southfront

The Syrian army, Hezbollah, Liwa al-Quds and other pro-goverment formations have been advancing on multiple fronts inside and outside Aleppo city.

On November 20, government forces took control of the most part of Souq al Jibs near the al-Assad Neighborhood of Aleppo city. Separtely, pro-government forces seized the Tal (hill) Zuhur, a number of points in the Hanano Neighborhood and the Old Sheikh Najjar Industrial area in northern Aleppo.

Early on November 21, the Jaish al-Fatah militant coalition, led by Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zenki and Jabhat Fatah al-Shm (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian al-Qaeda branch), attack government forces positions in northern Aleppo, focusing on the Zuhur Hill. Pro-government media outlets argued that the army and its allies, supported by Syrian warplanes and helicopters, were able to repel the militants’ advance. According to local sources, clashes are still ongoing in the area.

Meanwhile, the army and Hezbollah continued military operation in western Aleppo, relaunching an attempt to re-take the militant controlled part of Souq al Jibs.

Jabhat Fatah al-Sham and allied militant groups have decided to surrender the town of Khan al-Shih in the Western Ghouta region of Rif Damascus province, according to local sources. Militant groups were pushed to make this decision because of a stiff military pressure from the Syrian military in the region. Recently, pro-government forces entered Khan al-Shih’s outskirts. Reports said that negotiations on the final terms and condition of surrender are in the final stage.

Government forces have repelled ISIS attack on the Deir Ezzor Airpot. Main clashes took place in the area of Al-Jafra Farms and resulted in destruction of 2 units of military equipment belonging to the terrorist group. Both sides report “major casualties among enemies”.

Iraqi security forces liberated the areas of Hayy Adan, al-Akhaa and the water project in Mosul, according to the Anti-Terrorism Directorate Sunday statement. On the same day the directorate announced that Wali of Islamic State in Hayy Adan, Marwan Hamed Saleh al-Hayali, had been killed among other ISIS members in the area.

The Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units are cutting off supply lines between ISIS terrorists in Syria and Iraq. Last week, the PMU liberated the Tal Afar Airbase and the nearby villages of Zariqi and Khidr al Yas west of Mosul. Now the PMU is advancing on the key ISIS-controlled town of Tal Afar. With the liberation of Tal Afar, ISIS terrorists will have no more option to receive supplies from Syria or to flee Mosul countryside in notable numbers.

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