الجنوب السوري للتحرير «وإسرائيل» تترنّح على صفيح الجولان…!

يونيو 13, 2018

محمد صادق الحسيني

الهجوم النهائي لقوات حلف المقاومة على مواقع المسلحين الإرهابيين في أرياف القنيطرة ودرعا، وصولاً إلى حدود الجولان وما بعد بعد حدود الجولان والحدود الأردنية بات قاب قوسين أو أدنى…!

في هذه الأثناء تلقى رئيس الوزراء الإسرائيلي ووزير حربه رسالة سرية نقلت إليهما بواسطة الطرف الروسي، تضمّنت تحذيراً شديد اللهجة لـ»إسرائيل» من التدخل، بأيّ شكل من الأشكال في المعارك المقبلة، وإلا فإنّ الردّ لقوات حلف المقاومة على أي استفزاز «إسرائيلي» سيكون أقسى بكثير مما يتوقعه العدو…!

في هذه الأثناء، فإنه وعلى الرغم من عاصفة الضجيج التي يثيرها رئيس الوزراء الإسرائيلي، في تناغم مع تصريحات تصدر على الموجة نفسها من الجنرالات العسكريين والأمنيين الأميركيين، حول العديد من المواضيع المتعلقة بالعدوان الأميركي الإسرائيلي الرجعي «العربي» على سورية، فإنّ انتصارات الجيش السوري وحلفائه مستمرة على كلّ الجبهات متجاهلة كلّ التهديد والعويل الأميركي الإسرائيلي السعودي والذي يتمحور حول ما يطلقون عليه «توسّع النفوذ الإيراني» في سورية وغيرها من الدول العربية.

ولكن عاصفة الضجيج هذه لم تتمكن من إخفاء الهزائم المتلاحقة التي يتكبّدها المعسكر الصهيوأميركي المعادي لحلف المقاومة، ولا هي قادرة على تهدئة روع القادة العسكريين والأمنيين والسياسيين الإسرائيليين الذين انتقلوا الى القدس المحتلة، لعقد اجتماعاتهم في النفق أو مركز القيادة المحصّن ضدّ كلّ أنواع الأسلحة والمُقام في باطن الأرض عند المداخل الغربية لمدينة القدس، وذلك منذ بداية شهر أيار الماضي.

فكيف لنتن ياهو، الذي يهدّد بإخراج إيران من كلّ سورية وليس فقط من الجنوب السوري، ويهدّد بضرب الجيش السوري، أن يكون رامبو في الإعلام ويختبئ تحت الأرض في الوقت نفسه خوفاً من صواريخ الجيش السوري وحلفائه!؟

إنّ هذا الواقع يؤكد مجدّداً هزيمتكم الميدانية أيها الصهاينة وكذلك هزال المعنويات الداخلية والتي تجعلكم تعيشون حالة خوف دائم، والتي تعزّزت بعد المستجدات التالية:

أولاً: فشل الاجتماع، الذي عُقد بين رئيس أركان الجيش الروسي، الجنرال فاليري غيراسيموف، ورئيس هيئة الأركان المشتركة للجيوش الأميركية، الجنرال جوزيف دانفورد، والذي عقد يوم 8/6/2018 في هلسنكي، عاصمة فنلندا، في التوصل الى أيّ صيغة مشتركة، بين الطرفين، لانتشار الجيش السوري في جنوب سورية، وكذلك موضوع تمركز وحدات مقاتلة من حزب الله إلى جانب مستشارين عسكريين إيرانيين، يدّعي الطرف الأميركي الإسرائيلي أنهم ليسوا كذلك وإنما هناك وحدات من الحرس الثوري الإيراني تنتشر مع وحدات الجيش السوري ويرتدي أفرادها اللباس العسكري السوري للفرقة الرابعة والخامسة وقوات الحرس الجمهوري السوري، حسب «المعلومات الاستخبارية» التي تحدّث عنها الجنرال الأميركي خلال الاجتماع. وهي بالطبع معلومات ملفقة سبق أن نفى صحتها الرئيس السوري بشارالأسد شخصياً، بالإضافة الى وزير الخارجية وليد المعلم.

وهذا يعني:

 ـ أنّ الطرف الروسي رفض الاقتناع بما ساقه الطرف الأميركي من تلفيقات حول طبيعة القوات العسكرية المنتشرة في الجنوب السوري، خاصة أنّ القيادة الروسية على علم تام، بحكم التنسيق الدقيق بين القيادتين الروسية والسورية، بكافة التفاصيل العسكرية المتعلقة بمختلف الجبهات السورية، وبالتالي فهي على وعي كامل بأنّ ما طرحه الجنرال الأميركي ليس الا تخرّصات وخرافات.

 ـ رفض الجانب الروسي التدخل في قرار سيادي سوري بحت أو مناقشته او الموافقة على تدخل الطرف الأميركي «الإسرائيلي» في ذلك، واعتبار الموضوع خارج نطاق البحث، ما يعني رفضاً روسياً واضحاً لابتزازات الطرف، الأميركي الإسرائيلي المهزوم، ودحضاً لادّعاءات نتن ياهو وغيره أنّ هناك خلافاً روسياً ـ إيرانياً حول المشاركة العسكرية الإيرانية في صدّ العدوان الذي تتعرّض له سورية منذ ما يزيد على سبع سنوات.

ثانياً: فشل تصريحات وزير الحرب الأميركي، الجنرال جيمس ماثيس، التي أدلى بها على هامش اجتماعات وزراء دفاع حلف شمال الأطلسي في بروكسل يوم 9/6/2018، في تهدئة روع الإسرائيليين وتخفيف شعور قيادتهم السياسية والعسكرية بالهزيمة واقتراب موعد استعادة الجولان السوري المحتلّ وصلاة قوات حلف المقاومة قريباً في المسجد الأقصى المبارك.

تلك التصريحات التي قال فيها الوزير الأميركي بأنّ ما يُطلق عليه التحالف الدولي لمحاربة الإرهاب سيستمرّ في محاربة داعش، وأنّ القوات والقواعد الأميركية باقية في سورية حتى إلحاق الهزيمة الكاملة بداعش، أيّ أنه يقول للإسرائيليين بصريح العبارة إننا باقون لحمايتكم ولا داعي لقلقكم.

ولكن الوزير الأميركي يعلم أكثر من غيره، كما يعلم الجنرالات العسكريون والأمنيون الإسرائيليون، أنّ كلامه بعيد عن الواقع، وأنه غير قادر على الحفاظ لا على قواعده العسكرية الاحتلالية في سورية، ولا على توفير الأمن لقاعدته العسكرية على أرض فلسطين والتي تسمّى «إسرائيل»، وانّ مَن يحدّد بقاء القوات غير السورية على التراب الوطني السوري هو القيادة السياسية السورية، ممثلة بشخص الرئيس بشار الأسد، بصفته القائد الأعلى للقوات المسلحة السورية، والذي ينطلق قراره من موازين القوى في الميدان والوسائل القتالية اللازمة لإنهاء الوجود الإرهابي المسلح والمدعوم من قوات وقواعد الاحتلال الأميركية في التنف والحسكة وغيرها من مناطق الشمال الشرقي السوري.

ثالثاً: أنّ الخزعبلات والتفاهات والتضليلات، التي تصدر عن هذا المهرّج المسمّى بنيامين نتن ياهو، والتي كان آخرها ما صدر عنه عصر يوم 10/6/2018 من ادّعاءات بأنّ «إسرائيل» متفوّقة في مجال تنقية المياه ومواجهة الجفاف وأنها مستعدة لتقديم العون التكنولوجي للشعب الإيراني لمساعدته في تنقية المياه ومواجهة شحّها في إيران…!

وبأقواله هذه فإنّ نتن ياهو لا يمارس الخديعة على الشعب الإيراني فقط، وإنما يمارس الكذب على كلّ شعوب العالم بادّعاءاته هذه وإنكاره أنّ تخفيف أزمة المياه في فلسطين المحتلة لا يرجع إلى عبقرياته واختراعاته التكنولوجية والمائية الهيدروليكية وانما يعود ذلك، وبكلّ بساطة، الى سرقة المياه الفلسطينية الأردنية السورية اللبنانية من نهر الأردن وروافده ومن بحيرة طبريا الفلسطينية السورية. وهو ما نجم عنه جفاف نصف البحر الميت الجنوبي، الذي كان يتغذّى بالمياه من نهر الأردن، الذي لم يعد نهراً بعد تحويل مجراه وسرقة مياهه من قبل أسلاف نتن ياهو.

لذلك، فإننا نقول له إنّ الشعب الإيراني الذي يمتلك آلاف العلماء، في كافة مجالات العلوم بما فيها العلوم النووية، ليس بحاجة لك ولا لأكاذيبك وادّعاءاتك الزائفة. كما أنّ هذه الترّهات لن تنجح في تهدئة روعك أنت وقيادتك العسكرية والأمنية وليست قادرة على إعادة الطمأنينة الى قلوب المستوطنين الإسرائيليين.

رابعاً: استدعاء وزارة الحرب الإسرائيلية، وبشكل عاجل، جنود الاحتياط لترك بيوتهم ومراكز عملهم والالتحاق بالجبهة فوراً، وذلك عقب ما قالت عنه مصادر عسكرية إسرائيلية إنه اقتراب بدء هحوم الجيش السوري وحلفائه على جبهتي القنيطرة ودرعا في الجنوب السوري، ذلك الاستدعاء، وحسب بيانات وزارة الحرب الإسرائيلية، الذي يهدف الى عرقلة الهجوم السوري إذا لم يكن ممكناً احتواؤه…!

مما يعني أنّ قيادة جيشك، أيّها الطاووس الأجوف، لم تعُد تواجه خطر تقدّم قوات حلف المقاومة لتحرير الجليل الأعلى من الاحتلال، وإنما أصبحت تواجه جبهة تشمل مستوطنات وسط الجولان، مثل مستوطنة ميروم جولانMerom Golan، ومستوطنات جنوب الجولان مثل مستوطنة ميفو حمه Mevo Hama ومستوطنة تل كاتسرين TEL Katsrin، وكذلك مستوطنات جنوب غرب بحيرة طبريا مثل مستوطنة دجانيا الف Deganya Alef ومستوطنة دجانيا باء Deganya Bet، وغيرها من المستوطنات الواقعة في تلك المنطقة وصولاً الى مدينة بيسان وغيرها من المدن الفلسطينية المحتلة، جنوب بحيرة طبريا وغربها.

وهذا يعني أنّ حديث مستوطنيك، على طول خطوط المواجهه، لن يدور حول ما أطلقته من بروباغندا تضليلية فارغة حول شحّ المياه في إيران، وإنما سيدور حديثهم في مستوطنات وسط الجولان حول ما إذا كانت القوات السورية، التي ستدخل المستوطنات وتحرّرها من جيشك، هل ستكون هذه القوات من الفرقة المدرعة الرابعة في الجيش السوري أم من وحدات حزب الله؟

بينما سيدور حديث مستوطنيك في مستوطنات جنوب الجولان وجنوب غرب بحيرة طبريا حول ما إذا كانت القوات، التي ستدخل المستوطنات وتحرّرها من احتلالكم، ستكون من الحرس الجمهوري السوري فقط أم أنها ستشمل أيضاً قوات النمر المعزّزة بوحدات من الفرقة المدرّعة الخامسة في الجيش السوري ووحدات من لواء أبو الفضل العباس في قوات الدفاع الوطني السوري؟

هذه ستكون محاور حديث أولئك المستوطنين الذين تقوم بخداعهم وتعرّضهم لأخطار الحروب والدمار. كما أنّ ما يطلبونه منك ليس حلّ مشكلة المياه في إيران وانما إيجاد مأوى لهم عندما تعترف بهزيمتك ويبدأ تفكيك «إسرائيل» بعد تحرير معظم فلسطين التاريخية من قبل قوات حلف المقاومة وعودة أهلها الفلسطينيين إلى ديارهم التي هجّروا منها قبل سبعين عاماً.

كفّوا عن الكذب والخداع واعترفوا بهزيمتكم وابدأوا بتنظيم انسحابكم المنظم من فلسطين قبل اضطراركم إلى الانسحاب تحت النار، الأمر الذي سيضاعف خسائر «جبهتكم الداخلية» عشرات المرات.

بعدنا طيّبين، قولوا الله…

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تنياهو على موعد مع احدى الكارثتين .. الرد المناسب بالصاروخ المناسب

 ….بقلم نارام سرجون

يظن البعض في تجاهل الرد على الخصم الظنون .. فالبعض يظن انه ضعف وقلة حيلة .. والبعض يظن انه قلة ثقة بالنفس .. ولكنه قد يكون على العكس تماما يعكس حالة فائقة من الثقة بالنفس .. واحتقارا لاحدود له استوجب الاحجام حتى عن انفاق كلمة واحدة للرد ..

وكذلك يظن البعض في الوقاحة الظنون ويحسب البعض انها بسبب قلة الادب والتربية .. فيما يرى الآخر ان الوقاحة مصدرها الثقة العالية بالنفس والفارق الهائل في القوى والامكانات بين الوقح والمتواقح عليه .. ولكن هناك نوعا من الوقاحة مصدرها الضعف وقلة الحيلة .. واليأس .. فاليائس سيصل حتما الى مرحلة الشخص الوقح الذي لم يعد يبالي او يكنرث بما تجلبه عليه وقاحته وسوء تصرفه من عواقب وعقوبات ..

واظن ان الاسرائيليين كانوا دوما دولة وقحة ومجتمعا وقحا وجيشا وقحا منذ تأسيس هذا الكيان بوقاحة الذريعة من ان الله قد تنازل لهم وحدهم عن عقاراته بين الفرات والنيل .. وتصل فظاظة الذريعة الى حد انها تقدم الاله على انه اله وقح يخلق الناس جميعا فقط من أجل ان يختار من بينهم شعب الله المختار الذي يفضله على الناس أجمعين دون ان ندري لم كلف هذا الاله نفسه وخلق البشر طالما انه يقضل نوعا خاصا جدا منهم ..

اليوم وقاحة الاسرائيليين تصاعدت بشكل ملحوظ ولكنها لم تعد بسبب تفوقهم العسكري وليس بسبب انجازاتهم في الربيع العربي التي حطموا فيها نصف العالم العربي دون طلقة واحدة وشغلوا الاسلاميين والطوائف كجنود من عسل وسموم تقتل المجتمعات والدول المحيطة بهم وهم يتفرجون يفركون أياديهم جذلا وبهجة ودهشة .. ووقاحتهم ليست بسبب انهم فتحوا مكة والمدينة وشبه جزيرة العرب ودخلوها آمنين .. وصار حصن خيبر هو الذي يفتح يثرب ..

المأزق الاسرائيلي عميق جدا فالجيش السوري يقترب من الحدود الجنوبية دون أي تأتأة او تلكؤ .. وخيارات الاسرائيليين تكاد تكون صفرا لوقف الزحف سوى انها قد تشاغلنا بجبهات الشرق والشمال خاصة ان الروس سيكونون راغبين في تهدئة الجبهات الشرقية خلال فترة الالعاب الكروية في روسيا .. ولكن من تجربة الاسرائيليين .. فهذه توقفات عابرة .. ومسكنات عسكرية .. فالجراحة قادمة الى جميع المناطق .. وسكين الجراحين ستجري العمل الجراحي في الجنوب السوري اذا لم تتوقف هذه الغرغرينا في الجنوب ..

اذا أردنا ان نعرف عمق المأزق الاسرائيلي الآن فما علينا الا ان نرصد سوية التهديدات الاسرائيلية التي بلغت حدا قياسيا .. يتناوب عليها وزير الدفاع ليبرمان ونتنياهو .. ووصل التهديد انهما يذكران علنا ان اسرائيل قد تستهدف الرئيس الأسد كما يتحدث القراصنة وقطاع الطرق .. وان اسرائيل ستنتقم منه اذا لم يوافق على شروطها بشأن اتفاق الجنوب الخاص بايران وحزب الله .. ويبدو ان نتنياهو كان قد كرع بعض النبيذ وابتلع حبوب المهلوسات قبل تصريحاته الاخيرة التي هدد فيها انه سيدمر الجيش السوري كله ايضا ..

يبدو ان نتياهو يحج والناس راجعة .. فبعد 8 سنوات من قصف متوال ومتواصل من كل ساسة العالم الذين اعطوا المهل لأيام ولساعات لتسليم دمشق واعلان استشلامها فان لاأحد سقط الا ساسة العالم جميعا .. ولعل اكبر مثال حي على ضرورة التواضع في التصريحات هي نموذج الطيب رجب الذي كان لايقبل بغير الصلاة في الأموي .. ثم لف لسانه ودفنه في مكان ما .. فالرجل لم يعد يصرح بأي شيء ذي قيمة ..

من الواضح ان الاسرائيليين متوترون جدا وهم لايلامون على الاطلاق ويرفعون من حدة التهديدات والتصريحات الى حد مبتذل وحقير .. وهم يجولون العواصم وينقلون رسائلهم وتوسلاتهم .. ويغلفونها بتهديدات عنترية .. فالقوة التي توجهت الى الجنوب السوري قوة هائلة وهي قوات ميكانيكية تكاد المدرعات فيها تزيد على اعداد الجنود .. وهناك قوات خاصة كبيرة ونخبوية .. كما ان الطيران الروسي سيتكفل بحماية هذه القوات .. ولاتقدر اسرائيل على عمل شيء سوى ان تستنسخ الموقف التركي الذي رأى حلب بأم عينه وهي تفلت من يده وأسنانه .. ولم يقدر على ان يتدخل مباشرة رغم انه حقن المسلحين في حلب بكل انواع السلاح والدعم والامدادات .. لكنه صمت على الجرح وابتلع القيح الممزوج بالدم ولم يجرؤ على التقدم بنفسه ..

نتنياهو طبعا رأى ان أفعى الناتو التي ابتلعت كل خصوم اسرائيل .. من العراق وحتى ليبيا .. لم تقدر ان تبتلع سورية و هذا الناتو لم يقدر على الاقتراب من سورية .. وحتى الاميريكيون أكثر مافعلوه هو محاولة ضربة فشلت في اصابة اصرار السوريين وعنادهم ..

والاسرائيليون يدركون ان القوات السورية المتجهة الى الجنوب هائلة وستكنس كل المسلحين من الجنوب ولكنها لم تعد محكومة باتفاق فض الاشتباك الذي أعقب حرب 73 .. لان اسرائيل هي التي مزقته وتخلت عنه عندما أبعدت الجيش السوري عبر مجموعات النصرة التي هي جيش ملحق باسرائيل .. والحديث عن ايرانيين يجب ابعادهم هو للتغطية على الطلب الحقيقي وهي اعادة اتفاق فك الاشتباك وبضمانة روسية .. وهو مالم تقدمه روسيا .. وتهديدات الاسرائيليين للأسد هي رسائل للروس من أن الاسرائيليين قد يخلطون كل الاوراق في المنطقة مما يهدد مصالح الروس ..

نصيحتي لنتنياهو المتعجرف .. التهديدات باستهداف الاسد لن توقف الاسد .. وحسنا فعلت القيادة السورية انها تجاهلت الرد على التهديدات الاسرائيلية .. فعدم الرد فيما أرتال الدبابات تتجه جنوبا يعني انه احتقار لاحدود له .. ولايعني انه فرط ثقة بالنفس بل يعني كليهما معا .. ونصيحتي الأقوى له هي الا يتحدث عن تدمير الجيش السوري بعد اليوم لأن عليه قبل ان يتحدث عن تدمير الجيش السوري ان يتذكر ان اسرائيل التي قد تلحق الدمار بسورية بما تملكه من سلاح ودعم عربي وغربي ستكون على موعد مع الكارثة كما وعدناها دوما .. وعلى نتنياهو ان يختار اما كارثة وصول الجيش السوري وحلفائه الى الجنوب ليصبح وجها لوجه مع الجيش الاسرائيلي الذي سيصير بلا احزمة أمان ولاأندوف ولامناطق فصل .. أواستقبال الكارثة في داخل بيت العنكبوت اذا مارفض هذا القدر القادم وقرر منعه .. من هنا نفهم العصبية والنزق والتوتر والسفرات المكوكية التي لاتهدأ والتهديدات الجوفاء التي لن نرد عليها الا في الوقت المناسب .. بالصاروخ المناسب .. والكارثة المناسبة ..

   ( السبت 2018/06/09 SyriaNow) 

On Int’l Quds Day: Sayyed Safieddine Articulates Important Stances in Interview with Al-Ahed

09-06-2018 | 12:03
On the occasion of International Quds Day, the Head of Hezbollah’s Executive Council, Sayyed Hashem Safieddine, sat down for a comprehensive interview with al-Ahed, covering developments surrounding al-Quds, Palestine, the deal of the century, the Arab World and the regional situation as well as internal Lebanese affairs.

the Head of Hezbollah's Executive Council, Sayyed Hashem Safieddine

“Quds Day this year has a very special peculiarity,” Sayyed Safieddine stressed. “There are Arab groups that spoke clearly about abandoning al-Quds, and Saudi Arabia did not need the deal of the century to announce its abandonment of al-Quds. It is basically a permanent partner in all American and “Israeli” projects targeting our region and our sanctities, including Palestine and others.”

According to Sayyed Safieddine “the “Israelis” have drawn up a specific program to annex the Golan Heights. There is available information, documents and data about an actual program and American promises to the “Israelis” that they will recognize the annexation of the Golan Heights to the usurper entity. This is not only a political and propaganda matter. It is an actual matter. Netanyahu talked about it openly and clearly. There is a program put in place. They are waiting for the right moment to declare and announce the official annexation.”

He points out that

“the forces of the resistance, thanks to God, today are unified. Some of the breakdown and weakening in the resistance that took place during the Syria crisis, thank God now, have been addressed. The cracks have been repaired. The axis of resistance is one unified and strong axis that depends on a large force called the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

Touching on the Iranian nuclear dossier, Sayyed Safieddine said,

“The secret of Iran’s power is its right. Iran is oppressed. It is defending its natural right. The secret of its strength is that it depends on a courageous and strong leader who defends his people and their rights to the last breath [and also depends] on the Iranian people’s unity behind its leadership.”

Concerning Yemen, he noted that the country

“has been imprisoned throughout past decades. Regardless of any other political title that the Al-Saud talks about, there is a big headline today in Yemen which is the Yemeni people have come out of the Saudi prison and will not return to it.”

On the issue of Bahrain, Sayyed Safieddine told al-Ahed that

“the people of Bahrain are an honorable and brave people that proved throughout the past years that they possess awareness, will, determination and the ability to maintain the high nature of its rise and objectives and defend its leading figures – first and foremost His Eminence Sheikh Isa Qassim and His Eminence Sheikh Ali Salman as well as all the leaders that the Bahraini people stood by and defended over the last few years.”

Moving over to Lebanon, he underscored Hezbollah’s “priorities”.

“We are seeking to receive important ministerial portfolios to carry out the duties that have become a necessity to us in order to serve the people and to exert the greatest influence in politics and government. This is one of our priorities,” Sayyed Safieddine added. “Today we are in the process of forming an anti-corruption file on a structural, individual, and policy level. And as soon as possible, work with the various concerned parties will begin, and the Lebanese will see the steps clearly – step by step and movement after movement.”

As far as the issue of the return of displaced Syrians to their home country is concerned, Sayyed Safieddine said that “our position … is stable, permanent and clear. This issue should be worked on within the political framework to reach a solution and solve the problem in the near future.” He also called for “a direct engagement with the Syrian state which declares every day that it is ready.”

The following is the text of the interview:

– Hezbollah won balanced popular support in the parliamentary elections, how will this be utilized in politics?

Political work will be on the implementation of the electoral program and giving priority to each item that was adopted and mentioned in the program. In general, political investment for the electoral achievement is to maintain the pledges and promises to the people, try to improve the country at the political, economic and developmental level and address the urgent files politically, economically and developmentally. Today, everyone knows that the economic and development file dictates urgency and necessity. It cannot be ignored anymore. It is not permissible to refrain from assuming responsibilities in this regard. So, the priority will be to pay attention to all that matters to the people at the level of securing their needs in terms of services and to improve the country economically and developmentally.

On the general political level, the political situation is acceptable to good. We do not need the parliamentary elections to depend on the results to improve the political situation, although the elections proved without a doubt that the political choice adopted by Hezbollah is the option that enjoys the support of the majority of the Lebanese people and also has a parliamentary majority. This has important political effects.

Some political files should have been put to bed after the elections. Arguments that did not benefit the country, specifically with respect to the defense of Lebanon and its resistance identity and confronting “Israeli” ambitions and threats, should stop.

– Lebanon is heading toward a new phase after Prime Minister Saad Hariri was appointed to form a government. In the context of talking about an American-Gulf attempt to prolong the formation of the government and putting Lebanon in a state of political fanaticism, what is your reading of the difficulties and the obstacles facing this formation?

We have yet to prove that there are important and fundamental obstacles to the suspension of the formation of the government. These are legitimate and acceptable political concerns. But on the level of facts, it seems that things will proceed at a good pace. This is what we wish for and seek and what most politicians in the country seek. US and Gulf intentions to suspend the political process in Lebanon is a separate analysis. But we do not believe that the Americans and the Saudis can disrupt the political life in Lebanon. They worked on influencing the political situation before, during and after the elections, but they are unable to suspend the political process as a whole because there are urgent requirements for all the Lebanese. If they wanted to face a team, they will be facing all the Lebanese. I believe that the existing will among all the Lebanese is the will to quickly form a government in order for it to do its duty to address the problems that will benefit all Lebanese.

– Will Hezbollah demand a greater share of ministerial posts?

It is known today that Hezbollah has three ministers. This is agreed upon with the various parties we spoke with in forming the government. The subject of the portfolios is still under discussion. We are seeking to receive important ministerial portfolios to carry out the duties that have become essential in order for us to serve the people and to have a greater impact in the political and governmental process. This has become a priority for us. The translation of these priorities is the strong participation in the government. Having strong participation means that there are important ministries run by Hezbollah, even though Hezbollah will consider itself concerned with all the government and all ministries.

– What are Hezbollah’s red lines regarding the ministerial statement?

I think the issue of the ministerial statement after the formation of the government will be handled in a flexible and easy way as in the previous government. I do not think there are major obstacles that will stand in the way of issuing a ministerial statement that is acceptable to all Lebanese. The past experience has proven that what we are asking for is easy and not difficult. Therefore, we do not need to talk about red lines as if there is a big problem that we are facing. I do not think that is the case at this stage.

– Hezbollah’s Secretary General spoke of a new stage in the fight against corruption. How will this project be translated into practice?

The practical translation of this process began in preparing the necessary introductions. When Hezbollah creates a special anti-corruption file, then this is an organizational decision. But it is linked to the commitment with the Lebanese to fighting corruption. When the Secretary General announced it and follows up directly, this means that we have begun. We are in the process of forming this file at the level of its structure, members, policies and plans. And as soon as possible, work with the various concerned parties will begin, and the Lebanese will see clearly the steps, step by step and movement after movement. It is no secret when I say that there are a number of files that we have started receiving. But the concerned party and the official responsible for the file will check and verify the data received to start working according to the files that are completed and prepared. We can say that we are in the stage of completing the necessary introductions. Work has already been going on for weeks.

– Some talk about the difficulty of Hezbollah’s response to corruption because of the vibrations it might cause to its relations with some allies. Is the party ready for such internal battles?

Before we announced the step to tackle corruption in Lebanon, we have studied Hezbollah’s objectives and policies and what we can do; what are the caveats and obstacles. According to our vision, we have reached the conclusion that the potential achievement is very important for the country. And it is necessary to set limits to the movement of corruption. Hezbollah did not talk about a comprehensive revolution in Lebanon because Lebanon does not tolerate a revolution to eradicate corruption from its roots. Some have said – and they are right – that corruption in Lebanon is rooted even in the structure of the system. We do not consider that there are favorable circumstances now or that our priorities now are to eliminate corruption in the Lebanese system. This is another discussion. We are talking about the extent to which we face corruption at the level of decisions, waste, some cases and some files that exhaust the public treasury and are at the expense of all the Lebanese. We are not talking about files that are unknown or hidden from many ministers and politicians who have dealt with the governmental and administrative affairs. Fighting corruption in the comprehensive political sense associated with the system is different from what we are doing now. It requires extensive Lebanese consensus. I do not think that Lebanon is ready for it now.

– In the coming days, we will witness a voluntary return of displaced Syrians due to the efforts of Major General Abbas Ibrahim and with the support of the President. Is there a role played by Hezbollah in this?

Our position on the return of the displaced Syrians to their country is stable, permanent and clear. This issue should be worked on within the political framework to reach a solution and solve the problem in the near future.

It is clear that this thorny and pressing issue on the Lebanese must be addressed in the near future. Why do some insist on distant roads that have no horizon at all. The road is easy and clear. It needs a decision, initiative and responsibility. In any case, this voluntary return, which is happening from time to time, is encouraging and important. It is in the interest of the Lebanese and Syrians. We must all work to develop it so that it becomes a voluntary return in a more comprehensive and complete manner.

– Do you mean dialogue with Syria?

Direct engagement with the Syrian state. The Syrian state declares every day that it is ready. This must be implemented. All the Lebanese will benefit from it. As a result, the international community and all the solutions that come from abroad are temporary and their usefulness is limited because their disadvantages that befall all Lebanese are bigger and greater.

– This year’s International Quds Day coincides with the death anniversary of its founder, Imam Khomeini. What are the challenges facing al-Quds today? Did the Gulf-American alliance achieve its objectives of obliterating the Palestinian cause in the Arab and Islamic conscience?

This year’s International Quds Day has a very special peculiarity. If we needed to observe International Quds Day on the last Friday of the holy month of Ramadan as Imam Khomeini emphasized every year, this year the Muslim and Arab world needs it more, especially the Palestinian arena. The reason is the aggression that al-Quds is being subjected to today. Al-Quds is usurped and violated. But this year, there are Arab groups that talked about abandoning al-Quds. It is basically a permanent partner in all American and “Israeli” projects targeting our region and our sanctities, including Palestine and others. What is new is this Saudi and Gulf audacity when they announced the deal of the century, including ending and eliminating the issue of al-Quds from the political priority, and even from the general culture and popular conscience. This needs a proportional level of rejection of all these ugly and shameless projects and need a higher level of emphasis on the sanctity and priority of al-Quds and its cause.

But they have not succeeded in obliterating the issue of al-Quds. No deal, no ruler, no matter how powerful or wealthy, not America with its arrogance and dominance and Saudi Arabia with its money and its hatred can obliterate the al-Quds cause. Yes, they plotted and are conspiring against it. They are pushing for the normalization of ties with the “Israeli” enemy. They are also making the nation forget al-Quds politically, culturally and through the media. But they will not succeed. The proof for this is the Palestinian voice on the shores of Gaza and in all the Palestinian territories. This voice reaffirms that al-Quds will remain present in the culture and conscience and a political priority. Yes, we must admit that what Saudi Arabia and some Gulf and Arab countries have done is a very advanced step to end the al-Quds cause. But will they succeed or not? This requires effort, sacrifice and resistance, and to emphasize what Hezbollah has always asserted that the road to al-Quds can only be opened through resistance, blood, martyrdom, giving, and sacrifices.

– The marches of return formed a qualitative addition in confronting the enemy. The night of the rockets in the Golan early May gave impetus to military action. Is the enemy stuck between a rock and a hard place both internally and externally?

The “Israeli” enemy sensed real and actual existential danger after the 2006 war. After the 2000 victory and the humiliating withdrawal from southern Lebanon and the Lebanese territories, except for the Shebaa Farms, the “Israelis” felt that there was a great threat to them. They tried to deal with this danger by political and satanic projects and machinations, but they were unable to do so. The results of the 2006 war stipulate that the “Israelis” were broken and defeated. When the points of superiority of the “Israeli” enemy were broken and defeated, they began to feel the existential danger. The “Israeli” yelling today regarding the Golan, the rockets and the ability of the resistance, the advanced positions of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the ability of the axis of resistance to record achievements and victories in Syria and the region in general are an expression of the crisis that began in 2006. It has been trying to find a solution. But what happened from 2006 until 2018 is that its crisis became more complicated and its existential fears increased. This is a point of strength for the resistance axis. We should look at all these threats, “Israeli” screams, American sanctions, American and “Israeli” attempts at the Islamic Republic and the resistance axis with a different view. It is not a proof of their strength. It is a proof of their weakness and retreat.

– Is American recognition of al-Quds as the capital of the usurping entity recognition of the Golan as an “Israeli” land as the Zionists say?

The “Israelis” have drawn up a specific program to annex the Golan Heights. There are information, documents and data that speak of an actual program and American promises to the “Israelis” that they will recognize the annexation of the Golan Heights to the usurper entity. There are information, documents and data about an actual program and American promises to the “Israelis” that they will recognize the annexation of the Golan Heights to the usurper entity. This is not only a political and propaganda matter. It is an actual matter. Netanyahu talked about it openly and clearly. There is a program put in place. They are waiting for the right moment to declare and announce the official annexation. Then comes the American approval to remove the Golan from being an occupied area in all corridors and political scenes in the world. Yes, if al-Quds is in real and serious danger, do not be surprised that the Golan is in a serious danger to be included in the usurper entity.

– Can these new developments and challenges reunite the resistance forces in the region after the war in Syria has affected them?

The forces of resistance, praise be to Allah, are united today. They have scored great achievements in confronting the “Israeli” enemy, the projects of fragmenting the nation and the targeting of the governments that stood by the resistance, for example Syria. The axis of resistance is growing in strength and leverage, but it is normal that the fronts and titles of confrontation increase whenever there is progress in the work of the axis of resistance. The forces of resistance, thanks to God, today are unified. Some of the breakdown and weakening in the resistance that took place during the Syria crisis, thank God, now have been addressed. The cracks have been repaired. The axis of resistance is one unified and strong axis that depends on a large force called the Islamic Republic of Iran. It also depends on good and important governments in the region that bear the idea of resistance and depends first of all on the people of resistance from Palestine to Lebanon to Syria to Yemen to all this area, which will remain, God willing, strong and great with its resistance and the resistance axis. Yes, this axis will face difficult challenges. It faced difficulties in the past and will face new difficulties. God willing it will achieve better results. In general, the axis of resistance addressed all the repercussions of the events that took place in Syria.

– US sanctions and threats to the Islamic Republic were met by Imam Khamenei’s decision to increase the number of centrifuges. What is the secret of Iran’s strength in this confrontation?

The secret of Iran’s power is its right. Iran is oppressed. It is defending its natural right. The secret of its strength is that it depends on a courageous and strong leader who defends his people and their rights to the last breath [and also depends] on the Iranian people’s unity behind its leadership. For the past 40 years, it did not accept to be complacent for this American hegemony, conditions and pressures. For eight years, the Iranian people fought the world that stood behind Saddam Hussein in order to remain a free and independent and in order to have a sovereign state with an independent decision in this region. Iran’s strength is in all these elements from its right to lead its people to its experience and development to its enormous capabilities in the face of these developments and American hegemony.

– Do you agree with the view that Jordan is paying the price for abandoning its obedience to the Saudi master over the al-Quds file or is it preparing to be the alternative homeland?

Regardless of the project being hammered out for Jordan and the analyzes that exist today, what is happening in Jordan is undoubtedly one of the repercussions of the bad policies of some regional countries that want to pressure the entire region in order to abandon their causes in favor of the deal of the century or American and “Israeli” priority. Naturally, Jordan as well as all the countries in this region, are likely to be in a position of pressure at the popular, political and economic levels when priority is elsewhere. When the priority of those who possess money and capabilities in this region is to serve the Americans and “Israelis”, it will be at the expense of the people of the region, whether the Jordanian or the Palestinian people. On the occasion of al-Quds Day, we must not forget the famine the Palestinian people are suffering from. The problem is not in Jordan alone. There is a real famine and unjust siege in Jordan and Palestine, as is the unjust siege in Yemen. The repercussions of the events taking place in the region are the result of these corrupt and distorted Gulf policies.

– More than 3 years have passed since the Saudi-American aggression on Yemen began. No objectives have been achieved. Meanwhile, the Saudi-UAE begging for direct American intervention is increasing. What is the endgame in this war?

It was the Yemeni people who talked about the endgame of war in Yemen. When the people of Yemen clearly state that they will not bow down and will not bend to Saudi dictates, it will no longer be accepted that Yemen is under Saudi rule as it has been over the past decades. The Yemeni people, due to the political circumstances and the foolishness of the of Saudi political positions during the past three years and earlier, discovered that its path to salvation and its path towards being an actual authority on their land are open. Why should it return to prison? Yemen has been imprisoned throughout the past decades. It was in the Saudi prison. Yemen was deprived of the benefit of its oil potential. It was deprived of the ability to determine economic and financial policies that serve its people, whether in the south or the north. Yemen was living all this deprivation, and the poverty we see today on the faces of the Yemenis, their homes, streets and cities is the product of Saudi policies that wanted to keep Yemen in prison. Regardless of any other political title that the Al-Saud talks about, there is a big headline today in Yemen which is the Yemeni people have come out of the Saudi prison and will not return to it. It has given martyrs and is ready to offer more. All that we hear and see including heroism and courageous sacrifices confirm that the Yemeni people will reach victory. And victory is the natural result of Yemen’s courage, will and chivalry.

– The Bahraini authorities continue to abuse those demanding the most basic civil rights in Bahrain. What is your message to the people of Bahrain, who peacefully demonstrate against the arrest of their leaders, most notably Sheikh Isa Qassim?

The people of Bahrain are an honorable and brave people that the people of Bahrain are an honorable and brave people that proved throughout the past years that they possess awareness, will, determination and the ability to maintain the high nature of its rise and objectives and defend their leading figures – first and foremost His Eminence Sheikh Isa Qassim and His Eminence Sheikh Ali Salman as well as all the leaders that the Bahraini people stood by and defended over the last few years.

The Bahraini people have high morals. We have witnessed this moral in their positions alongside the Palestinian cause and al-Quds. The Bahraini people today is with al-Quds and the resistance while the ruler of Bahrain and the rulers of the Gulf are working day and night to sell al-Quds and abandon it in order to preserve their thrones. All these events came to prove once again that the Bahraini people were right, and at the same time they are an oppressed people. It is a people that has no power but to say its word and will continue to say this word, in the media, in politics, in the demonstrations … its men, women, and youth. All that is happening in Bahrain confirms that the Bahraini people are right in their cause and will continue in this cause to achieve its goal. God willing it will be achieved. Yes, we can only tell the people of Bahrain, to our loved ones and dear ones in Bahrain, patience Bahraini people, victory will come. Following the patience that you have demonstrated, there is no result but to achieve your goals with all the sacrifices that have been made in the eyes of Allah Almighty.

Source: Al-Ahed News

هل أميركا في مرحلة صعود واقتدار؟

يونيو 7, 2018

ناصر قنديل

– السؤال الذي يحمله العنوان لا يفيد في الجواب عليه الانطلاق من الرغبات، وتطويع الوقائع لقراءتها بعين تخدم استنتاجاً مسبقاً، يريده المتابع إن كان خصماً للسياسات الأميركية ومواجهاً لها تأكيداً لضعف أميركا، ويريده مؤيدو أميركا وحلفاؤها تعبيراً عن قوّتها. فهذا النوع من القراءة هدّام بل مدمّر، لأنه يبني أوهاماً سرعان ما تُبنى عليها سياسات مغامرة، فيقع خصوم أميركا في مواجهات مبنية على قراءة الضعف ويصطدمون بجدران القوّة، أو يخاطر حلفاؤها بالبناء على قوّتها خيارات سرعان ما يظهر أنها انتحارية، عندما يرونها تنكفئ وتتراجع وتتركهم لمصيرهم وحدهم.

– في السياسات الأميركية ما يحمل الشيء ونقيضه في الإجابة عن السؤال حول القوة والضعف. فأميركا التي تصعّد على إيران وروسيا والصين وأوروبا بخطوات مالية قاسية بين العقوبات والإجراءات الضريبية، تبدو كلاعب منفرد على الساحة الدولية لا يأبه بالآخرين، وينظر إليهم كمجرد عناصر في اللوحة التي يتحكّم بألوانها وتشكيلاتها. وأميركا التي تتهرّب من المواجهة في أزمة وحرب رصدت للفوز بهما في سورية كلّ رصيدها وتحالفاتها، هي الدولة العظمى التي تشيخ وتدرك أكلاف المواجهات مع قوى فتية صاعدة مستعدّة للتضحية لإثبات مساحتها الخاصة على المسرح الدولي. وأميركا التي تنسحب من التفاهم النووي مع إيران، هي أميركا القوية، لكن أميركا التي لا تملك بديلاً للتفاهم ولا تستطيع جلب أوروبا للشراكة في تدمير هذا التفاهم، هي أميركا الضعيفة. وأميركا التي تذهب للتفاوض مع كوريا الشمالية هي أميركا الضعيفة، بينما أميركا التي تهدّد بحال فشل التفاوض ليست أميركا القوية، لأنها أظهرت بقوة خشيتها من تدمير قنوات التفاوض. وهكذا هي أميركا التي تعترف بالقدس عاصمة لكيان الاحتلال تبدو بمظهر القوي، لكنها في الواقع تنهي فرص التفاوض والتسويات في الملف الفلسطيني الذي يشكل قلب أزمات المنطقة وحروبها، ويشكل انفجاره مخاطرة غير محسوبة العواقب، في ظلّ انسداد خيارات الحرب أمام أميركا و«إسرائيل».

– حال «إسرائيل» يفضح سرّ أميركا بصورة أكثر وضوحاً، فالانسحاب الأميركي من التفاهم النووي الإيراني، كما الاعتراف الأميركي بالقدس عاصمة لكيان الاحتلال، يُفترض أن يكونا فرصة لتشنّ «إسرائيل» حروب الحسم التي كانت تتوعّد بخوضها وتزعم أنّ واشنطن هي مَن يلجمها عن خوضها. وها هي «إسرائيل» تتعامل مع الملف النووي الإيراني بنشاط دبلوماسي لرئيس حكومتها عنوانه التحريض لفرض العقوبات على إيران، بدلاً من التمهيد للحرب عليها. وهي ذاتها تتقبّل عودة انتشار الجيش السوري على حدود الجولان بعد رهان على تدمير هذا الجيش لسبع سنوات، تفادياً لمجرد مشهد يتمركز فيه الإيرانيون وحزب الله على خط الحدود، رغم علمها بأنّ حدود هذا التمركز الفعلية هي حيث يتمركز الجيش السوري عملياً بحكم طبيعة التحالف الذي يجمع مثلث سورية وإيران والمقاومة. وعلى الضفاف الفلسطينية تواصل حكومة الاحتلال مواجهتها العبثية التي تذهب بالوضع في الأراضي المحتلة نحو المجهول، ولا تملك استراتيجية خروج، وفقاً للدرس الذي يفترض أنها تعلّمته من حرب تموز 2006، وقد فشلت في ابتكار شريك فلسطيني في صفقة القرن، رغم كسبها دعماً عربياً استثنائياً لتصفية القضية الفلسطينية.

– تُظهر الحالة الإسرائيلية الضعف الأميركي عن خوض الحروب، بقدر ما تظهر العجز الإسرائيلي الأشدّ حضوراً، لكنها لا تختصر المشهد الأميركي الذي يلجأ على الطريقة الإسرائيلية إلى الجدران والاحتماء بها، لكن الجدران الأميركية فعّالة رغم أنها جدران افتراضية، مبنية من ورق، لكنه ورق الدولارات، وورق الرسوم والعقوبات والقرارات المالية، بينما الجدران الإسرائيلية وهمية وهشّة رغم كونها جدران إسمنتية تظهر فضيحتها الحال على الحدود مع لبنان، حيث يتوقف بناء الجدار الهادف للحدّ من مخاطر المقاومة، بانتظار إذن سماح لبناني يتوقف على ترسيم الحدود والمصالح النفطية للبنان، يعرف الإسرائيليون أنّ للمقاومة كلمة فاصلة فيه.

– يصير المشهد أشدّ وضوحاً عندما يظهر أنّ أميركا قوية حيث تحتمي وراء جدارها المالي، وضعيفة عندما تخرج للنزال والمواجهة في الساحات التقليدية، ويظهر أشدّ وضوحاً أنّ معركة العقوبات ضدّ إيران وكوريا، تشكل الاختبار الأهمّ لقدرة جدران الحماية الأميركية على الصمود عندما تواجه خصماً قادراً على التأقلم مع العقوبات والحصار، وتغيب عنها البدائل إذا انكسر الجدار فتتعمّد إبقاء ثقوب فيه منعاً لانهياره بقوة اندفاع المياه من وراء السدّ. وهو ما يفسّر الدورين الأوروبي في ملف إيران النووي، والصيني في ملف كوريا الشمالية.

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THE SAKER: “IS PUTIN REALLY READY TO ‘DITCH’ IRAN?”

07.06.2018

The Saker: "Is Putin really ready to 'ditch' Iran?"

Written by The Saker; Originally appeared at The Unz Review

The topic of Russian actions in Syria still continues to fascinate and create a great deal of polemics.  This makes senses – the issue is exceedingly important on many levels, including pragmatic and moral ones, and today I want to stick strictly to the pragmatic level and set aside, just for a while, moral/ethical/spiritual considerations.  Furthermore, I will also pretend, for argument’s sake, that the Kremlin is acting in unison, that there are no Atlantic Integrationists in the Russian government, no 5th column in the Kremlin and that there is no Zionist lobby exerting a great deal of influence in Russia.  I will deal with these issues in the future as there is no doubt in my mind that time and events will prove how unfounded and politically-motivated these denials are in reality. But for the purpose of this analysis, we can pretend that all is well in the Kremlin and assume that Russia is fully sovereign and freely protecting her national interests.

So what do we know about what is going on in Syria?

I submit that it is obvious that Russia and Israel have made some kind of deal.  That there is an understanding of some kind is admitted by both sides, but there is also clearly more happening here which is not spelled out in full.  The Israelis, as always, are bragging about their total victory and posting articles like this one: “In Syria, Putin and Netanyahu Were on the Same Side All Along” with the subheading reading “Putin is ready to ditch Iran to keep Israel happy and save Assad’s victory“.  Really?

The chaotic world of contradictory declarations and statements

Let’s look at that thesis from a purely logical point of view.  First, what were the Israeli goals initially?  As I have explained it elsewhere, initially the Israelis had the following goals:

  1. Bring down a strong secular Arab state along with its political structure, armed forces, and security services.
  2. Create total chaos and horror in Syria justifying the creation of a “security zone” by Israel not only in the Golan but further north.
  3. Trigger a civil war in Lebanon by unleashing the Takfiri crazies against Hezbollah.
  4. Let the Takfiris and Hezbollah bleed each other to death, then create a “security zone”, but this time in Lebanon.
  5. Prevent the creation of a Shia axis Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon.
  6. Break up Syria along ethnic and religious lines.
  7. Create a Kurdistan which could then be used against Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran.
  8. Make it possible for Israel to become the uncontested power broker in the Middle-East and force the KSA, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait and all others to have to go to Israel for any gas or oil pipeline project.
  9. Gradually isolate, threaten, subvert and eventually attack Iran with a wide regional coalition of forces.
  10. Eliminate all centers of Shia power in the Middle-East.

Now let’s stop right here and ask a very simple question: if Putin and Netanyahu were on the same side all along, what should Putin have done to aid the Israelis?  I submit that the obvious and indisputable answer is: absolutely nothing.  By the time the Russian initiated their (very limited but also very effective) intervention in Syria those plans were well under way towards full realization!

The undeniable truth is that Putin foiled the initial Israel plan for Syria.

In fact, Hezbollah and Iran had already intervened in Syria and were desperately “plugging holes” in a collapsing Syrian front.  So, if anything, Putin has to be the one to be credited for forcing the Israelis to give up on their “plan A” and go to plan “B” which I described here and which can be summarized as follows:

Step one, use your propaganda machine and infiltrated agents to re-start the myth about an Iranian military nuclear program. (…)  If Trump says that the JCPOA is a terrible deal, then this is so. Hey, we are living in the “post-Skripal” and “post-Douma” era – if some Anglo (or Jewish) leaders say “highly likely” then it behooves everybody to show instant “solidarity” lest they are accused of “anti-Semitism” or “fringe conspiracy theories” (you know the drill). So step one is the re-ignition ex nihilo of the Iranian military nuclear program canard.  Step two is to declare that Israel is “existentially threatened” and (…) and let the dumb Americans fight the Iranians.

As I have explained it in great detail here, Russia does not have any moral obligation to protect anybody anywhere, not in the Middle-East and most definitely not Syria and/or Iran.  I have also explained in great detail here why Putin also has a lot of pragmatic internal reasons for not getting Russia involved in a major war in the Middle-East.

Finally, as I have explained here, the Israelis are clearly baiting Iran by striking Iranian (or, more accurately, Iranian-linked or Iranian-supported) targets in Syria. They hope that Iran’s patience will come to an end and that the Iranians will retaliate with enough firepower to justify not only an attack on (relatively low value) Iranian-linked targets in Syria but on Iran proper, thus leading to a guaranteed Iranian retaliation on Israel and The Big Prize: a massive US attack on Iran.

Now let’s look at Russian actions once again.  If Putin was “on the same side with Netanyahu all along”, he would be helping the Israelis do what they are doing, that is baiting the Iranians, right?  But what did Putin really do?

It all began with a statement by Foreign Minister Lavrov who declared that all foreign forces must leave Syria. It is my understanding that no direct quote exists from Lavrov’s initial statement, only interpreted paraphrases.  Lavrov also made some clarifying comments later, like this one. But let’s not get bogged down in trying to decide which was an off-the-cuff comment and which one was “official”, but let us begin by noticing this: even before Lavrov’s comment on “all foreign forces” the same Lavrov also said that “all US forces must leave Syria after the defeat of the terrorist forces“.  May I also remind everybody here that Israel has been illegally occupying the Syrian Golan for years and that the IDF exactly fits into the definition of “foreign force in Syria”? It gets better, according to the Syrians and, frankly according to common sense and international law, the Syrians say that all foreign forces must leave Syria except those legally requested to stay by the Syrian government.  So when the Russians say that all foreign forces including Iranians (assuming Lavrov really said that) must leave Syria they have absolutely no legal or other authority to impose that, short of a UNSC Resolution endorsing that demand.  Considering that the Israelis and the USA don’t give a damn about international law or the UNSC, we might even see a day when such a resolution is passed, enforced on the Iranians only, and ignored by the Israelis.  The trick here is that in reality there are rather few Iranian “forces” in Syria. There are many more “advisors” (which would not be considered a “force”) and many more pro-Iranian forces which are not really “Iranian” at all.  There is also Hezbollah, but Hezbollah is not going anywhere, and they are Lebanese, not Iranian anyway.  No doubt the Israelis would claim that Hezbollah is an “Iranian force” but that is basically nonsense.  And just to add to the confusion, the Russians are now being cute and saying: “of course, the withdrawal of all non-Syrian forces must be carried out on a mutual basis, this should be a two-way street“. I suggest that we can stop listing all the possible paraphrases and interpretations and agree that the Russians have created a holy (or unholy) mess with their statements. In fact, I would even submit that, what appears to be a holy (or unholy) mess, is a very deliberate and crafty ambiguity.

According to numerous Russian sources, all this rhetoric is about the southern part of Syria and the line of contact (it ain’t a border legally speaking) between Syria and Israel. The deals seem to be this: the pro-Iranian forces and Hezbollah get out of the south, and in exchange, the Israelis let the Syrians, backed by Russian airpower and “advisors” regain control of southern Syria but without any attempts to push the Israelis out of the Golan which they illegally occupy. Needless to say, the Syrians are also insisting that as part of the deal, the US forces in southern Syria must pack and leave.  But, frankly, unless the US plans to have tiny (and useless) US enclaves inside Syrian controlled territory I don’t see the point of them staying.  Not only that, but the Jordanians seem to be part of this deal too.  And here is the best part: there is some pretty good evidence that Hezbollah and Iran also are part of the deal.  And, guess what?  So are the Turks.

This sure looks like some kind of major regional deal has been hammered out by the Russians. And if that is really the case, then that would also explain the tense denials in Israel and Iran, followed by more confirmations (also here)  And, just to make things even more confused, we now have Stoltenberg (of all people!) saying that NATO would not assist Israel in case of an Iranian attack which, considering that the NATO Secretary General has no power, that NATO is about 80%+ made up of the USA and that the US now has permanent a “tripwire” force inside Israel and could claim to be under attack, is utter nonsense, but still amusing to note as “adding to the chaos”.

And then there is the apparent Syrian plan to kick out the US from northern Syria which, predictably, Uncle Sam don’t like too much.  So the two sides are talking again.

If all this looks to you like evidence for the thesis that “Putin and Netanyahu were on the same side all along”, then I wonder what it would take to convince you otherwise because to me this looks like one of three things:

  1. some kind of major regional deal has been made or
  2. some kind of major regional deal is in the process of being hammered out or
  3. some kind of major regional deal has been made but nobody trusts anybody else and everybody wants to make that deal better for itself

and, of course, everybody wants to save face by either denying it all or declaring victory, especially the AngloZionists.

So let’s ask the key question: is there any evidence at all that Putin and/or Assad is/are “ditching Iran”?

Away from the realm of declarations and statements and back to the world

Let’s begin with a simple question:  What does Iran want above all else?

I submit that the overwhelming number one priority of Iran is to avoid a massive US attack on Iran. 

Conversely, triggering such an attack on Iran is the number one objective of the Israelis.  They are rather open about that too.  They latest idea is to create a “military coalition against Iran” while trying to please NATO by joining anti-Russian exercises in Europe.

Not because of a non-existing Iranian nuclear program threatening Israel, but because Iran offers a most successful, and therefore dangerously competing, alternative civilizational model to both the AngloZionist Empire and the Saudi-Wahabi version of Islam.  Furthermore, unlike (alas!) Russia, Iran dares to openly commit the “crime of crimes”, that is, to publicly denounce Israel as a genocidal, racist state whose policies are an affront to all of civilized mankind.  Finally, Iran (again unlike Russia, alas!) is a truly sovereign state which has successfully dealt with its 5th columnists and which is not in the iron claws of IMF/WB/WTO/etc types (I wrote about that last week so I won’t repeat it here).

I also submit that Iran also has as a top priority to support all the oppressed people of the Middle-East.  Resisting oppression and injustice is a Quranic imperative and I believe that in its Iranian interpretation this also extends to non-Shia Sunnis and even Christians and Jews, but since I know that this will trigger all sorts of angry accusations of being naive (or even a Shia propagandist) I will concede that helping the oppressed Shia in the region is probably more important to the Iranian leaders than helping all the other oppressed. In secular terms, this means that Iran will try to protect and assist the Shia in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon and I see absolutely nothing wrong with that at all. In fact, considering the amazing mercy shown by Hezbollah to the SLA in southern Lebanon in 2000, and the fact that currently, the Syrian security forces are acting with utmost restraint in the parts of Syria which have accepted the Russian deal (this even has some Russian analysts outright worried) I think that Iranian-backed forces liberating Syria from Daesh are the best thing which anybody could hope for.

Furthermore, the truth is that for all its other faults, the Ba’athist regime in Syria was tolerant of minorities and that Hezbollah has always been protective of absolutely all the Lebanese people regardless of confession or ethnicity (others might disagree with me, but having studied Hezbollah and Iran for several decades now I come to the conclusion that they, unlike most other political actors, are actually truthful when they state their intentions).

So who is the biggest threat to the Shia and, I would argue, to all the people of the Middle-East?  The Takfiris of Daesh of course.

And what do all the variants of the possible “big regional deal” have in common?  The elimination of Daesh & Co. from Syria.

So how is that against the Iranian interests?!

It isn’t, of course.

The truth is that I see absolutely no evidence at all for “Putin and Netanyahu working together all along”.  What I do see is that some kind of deal is being worked out between numerous parties in which everybody is probably trying hard to cheat everybody else, Realpolitik at its worst and most cynical – yes.  But hardly a betrayal of Iran by Russia.

What everybody seems to be doing is what blacksmith Vakula did in Gogol’s Christmas Story “The Night Before Christmas“: to trick the devil. In Russia, the devil is known as “лукавый” which does not just mean “evil” but also sly/wily/deceitful/wickedly clever. To try to trick the devil is a very, very dangerous and difficult task and I also find it morally very questionable. But in keeping up with our modern value-neutral “realistic” Zeitgeist, we can also debunk the “Putin betrays Iran” on purely cynical and “pragmatic” reasons with no need to appeal to any higher values at all.

For those who have not seen it yet, I highly recommend this (English subtitled) video of Ruslan Ostashko discussing what Israel can, or cannot, offer Russia and Putin:

Ostashko is absolutely right.  The truth is that Israel, unlike Iran, has very little to offer Putin or Russia.  This does not mean that Israel does not have influence over the Kremlin, it most definitely does, but that influence is all “stick”, no “carrot” (which is one of the conceptual flaws in the position of those who deny the existence of a Zionist 5th column in Russia – they are denying the existence of the “stick” while producing no “carrot” thus making Russian policies appear both contradictory and unexplainable: hence a need for all sorts of mental contortions to try to explain them).

But Israel’s “stick”, while undeniably big, is dwarfed by Iran’s “carrot”: not only immense resources and billions of Dollars/Rubles/Rials/Euros to be made in energy and weapons and also many sectors of the economy. There is also the fact that Iran is truly the number one regional power in the entire Middle-East: maybe not big enough to impose its will on all others, but definitely big enough to bring down any major plan or policy it does not approve of. Furthermore, now that the international sanctions against Iran have been officially lifted (the USA’s reneging on its signature notwithstanding), Iran can join and become an influential member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (along with, possibly, other Middle-Eastern countries). All this makes the Iranian “carrot” very attractive to Russia. There is also a conceptual Iranian “stick”: if Israel gets its way and Iran is massively and viciously attacked by the AngloZionist Empire, and either chaos or a severe crisis result, what would be the impact on Russia and her allies? And, while I don’t think for a second that this is possible, let’s say the Empire puts a pro-AngloZionist regime in power in Tehran and overthrows the Islamic Republic – what would that do to the Russian national security? It would be an absolute nightmare, wouldn’t it?

Look at the relationship between Russia and Turkey before the coup attempt against Erdogan. Surely that relationship was much worse than the relationship currently enjoyed between the Islamic Republic and Russia, right? And yet, when the US attempted to topple Erdogan, what did Russia do? Russia gave Erdogan her fullest support and even, according to some rumors, physical protection during a few key hours.  If Russia sided with Erdogan against the Empire, why would Russia not side with the Islamic Republic, even if we consider only arguments of Russian self-interest?

For an excellent Iranian analysis of the Russia-Iran alliance, check out this article by Aram Mirzaei.

Conclusion

The simple truth is that regardless of declarations and political statements, China, Russia, Iran, Syria and Hezbollah are all dependent on each other and cannot afford to truly betray anybody lest the Empire take them out one by one. To use Franklin’s expression – they all must hang (i.e. stand) together or most assuredly they will all “hang separately”? That does not mean that they all love each other, or always share the same goals? They might also play against each other to some degree, and even try to get some sweet deal “on the side” with the AngloZionists (remember, Assad used to torture for the CIA!), but the facts on the ground and the correlation of forces in the Middle-East will limit the scope of such “mini-betrayals”, at least for the foreseeable future.

True, there is the Saudi factor to take into account.  Unlike the Israelis, the Saudis are offering a lot of “carrot”.  But the Saudis are way too arrogant, they are already messing with Russian interests not only in Syria, but also in Qatar, and their brand of Islam is truly a mortal danger for Russia. Right now the Atlantic Integrationists and Eurasian Sovereignists have achieved somewhat of an equilibrium in the Kramlin. The former is trying to split the EU from the USA and make lots of money, while the latter are left in charge of national security issues, especially towards the South, but this equilibrium is inherently unstable and would be immediately threatened by any meaningful AngloZionist attack. So yes, there is a Zionist Lobby in Russia and yes, it does act as a 5th column, but not, most emphatically no, it is not strong enough to completely disregard the financial interests of the Russian business elites or, even less so, fundamental Russian national security interests.  That is the one of biggest difference between the USA and Russia: Russia, while only partially sovereign, is far from being an Israeli protectorate or colony.  And as long as Russia retains her even partial sovereignty she will not “ditch” Iran, regardless of Israeli whining and threats.

My personal evaluation is that Putin is playing a very complex and potentially dangerous game. He is trying to trick not one, but many “devils”, all at the same time.  Furthermore, if the US Americans have been недоговороспособны (“not agreement capable”) already since Obama, Trump and his Neocon masters have made that even worse.  As for the Israelis, they would make Satan himself look honest and are ideologically incapable of honesty (or even decency).  Frankly, I don’t trust Erdogan one bit and I don’t think that the Russians will ever trust him either.  Call me naive, but I think that Assad has been changed by this war and even if he did, indeed, collaborate with the CIA in the past, I think that he will be a pretty good ally for Russia in the future.  As for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Hassan Nasrallah, I see them both as men of honor who will uphold any alliance they formally enter into (informal understandings and temporary mutual interests are a different deal).  I also see them as brilliant and wise geostrategists: they fully realize that Iran and Hezbollah *need* Russia to survive.  So Putin’s policy, while dangerous, is not doomed to failure at all: he is trying to save Syria from the AngloZionsts while avoiding a regional war.  Time is on his side as Trump’s erratic (and that is putting it mildly) policies (or, really, lack thereof) are inflicting tremendous damage on the Empire on a daily basis (see Dmitri Orlov’s excellent analysis here).

I honestly don’t know if Putin’s dangerous strategy will work or not.  I don’t think anybody else does either (except ignorant cheerleaders, of course).  But I do know that even if the sight of Bibi Netanyahu in Moscow with a Saint George ribbon was nauseating to my conscience, this absolutely does not indicate that Netanyahu and Putin are working together or that Russia is “ditching Iran”.  As always, the Israelis feel almighty and brazenly display their arrogance.  Let them.  Just remember the inevitable outcome from that kind of Zionist hubris in the past and wait for the inevitable “oy vey!“.

Finally, there is the single most important fact: the AngloZionist Empire and Russia remain at war, and have been so for at least four years or more.  That war is still about 80% informational, 15% economic and 5% kinetic, but it this is a very real war nonetheless, and it is escalating.  As long as Russia will retain even partial sovereignty and as long as she will offer an alternative civilizational model, even an imperfect one, she will remain an existential threat to the Empire and the Empire will remain an existential threat for the entire Russian civilizational realm.  While hugely important to Israel, the entire Iranian issue is just a sideshow to the transnational leaders of the Empire who see Russia and China as the real main competitors, especially when joined in a symbiotic relationship as they are today.  Hence the crises in the Ukraine and on the Korean Peninsula, hence the constants warnings of a possible full-scale nuclear war (see Eric Zuesse latest article here or Paul Craig Roberts numerous article on his website; also check out Dan Glazebrook’s excellent analysis of Trump’s attempt to repeat the “Rambouillet ruse” in Korea here).  Even if Putin succeeds in moving the EU closer to Russia and away from a (clearly insane) USA, and even if he succeeds in preventing the AngloZionists from directly attacking Iran, this will only further convince the AngloZionist leaders of the Empire that he, Putin, and Russia, are the ultimate evil which must be eliminated.  Those who hope for some kind of modus vivendi between the Empire and Russia are kidding themselves, because the very nature of the Empiremakes this impossible.  Besides, as Orlov correctly pointed it out – the Empire’s hegemony is collapsing, fast.  The Empire’s propaganda machine denies and obfuscates this, and those who believe it don’t see it – but the leaders of the Empire all understand this, hence the escalation on all fronts we have seen since the Neocons re-took power in the White House.  If the Neocons continue on their current course, and I don’t see any indication whatsoever that they are reconsidering it, then the question is only when/where this will lead to a full-scale war first.  Your guess is as good as mine.

 

كمينٌ نصبه قاسم سليماني

يونيو 5, 2018

ناصر قنديل

– تدعو مصادر على صلة وثيقة بمجريات الحرب في سورية إلى تذكّر كيفية مقايضة الحملة العسكرية التي نظمها الرئيس الأميركي السابق باراك اوباما على سورية بالحل السياسي للسلاح الكيميائي لسورية، وتقول كان هذا الكمين الاستراتيجي الثاني الذي نُصب للأميركيين، وتعود فكرته للرئيس السوري بشار الأسد الذي استبق الحملة بإبلاغ الرئيس الروسي فلاديمير بوتين أنه يضع بين يديه التوظيف التفاوضي لحل سياسي يُنهي السلاح الكيميائي لسورية، لاستخدامه في لحظة احتدام خطر تدخّل أميركي واسع النطاق عسكرياً. بعدما كان الكمين الأول بما عُرف ببيان جنيف واحد من صناعة وزير الخارجية الروسية سيرغي لافروف وينصّ على كلام غامض عن حل سياسي وهيئة حكم انتقالية لإلهاء الأميركيين عن فكرة التدخّل العسكري، بعدما تكفل الفيتو الروسي الصيني بحرمانهم من التغطية الأممية، لحين تصير روسيا جاهزة لمثل هذا التدخل.

– مع التموضع الروسي في سورية، كان السؤال الاستراتيجي هو كيف يمكن الحؤول دون تحول تموضع عسكري روسي وأميركي متقابلين سبباً لتقسيم سورية وتكرار النموذج الكوري فيها، خصوصاً بوجود أطماع تركية وإسرائيلية باقتطاع بعض من الجغرافيا السورية تحت شعار الحزام الأمني، يُضاف إليهما وجود تطلع كردي لكيان منفصل. تقول المصادر إن السؤال كان على طاولة الاجتماع الذي سبق التموضع الروسي وضمّ الرئيس بوتين والجنرال قاسم سليماني، وكان الجواب الذي صاغه سليماني يرتكز على فكرة الكمين الاستراتيجي النوعي الذي سيتوقف عليه تغيير وجهة الحرب ورسم نتائجها.

– تأسست الحركة الروسية الإيرانية على القناعة المشتركة بأن استعادة الدولة السورية لعافيتها وجغرافيتها الموحّدة تحت سيادة جيشها ورئيسها يشكل النصر الاستراتيجي المنشود، من جهة، وأن التسليم التركي والكردي بقبول هذه الحقيقة يتوقفان على التسليم الأميركي الذي يتوقف بدوره على التسليم الإسرائيلي، من جهة مقابلة. وأنه خلافاً لما قد يبدو من حجم الانتشار الأميركي وتوزّعه بين المناطق السورية بأولوية الشمال على الجنوب، فإن جنوب سورية حيث أمن «إسرائيل» هو ما سيقرّر، وأن الدفع بما يتكفّل بإثارة القلق على الأمن الإسرائيلي وحده سيتكفل بجعل روسيا مقصداً لطلب الضمانات التي ستكون تحت عنوان الدعوة للتسليم بالدولة السورية السيّدة والموحّدة في ظلّ رئيسها وجيشها، وأن إثارة القلق الإسرائيلي إلى حدّ الذعر مهمة إيران وحزب الله، وإثبات لا جدوى التعامل الإسرائيلي عسكرياً مع هذا الذعر، مهمة إيران وحزب الله والجيش السوري بعد تحسين دفاعاته الجوية برعاية روسية، حتى يصير المطلب الإسرائيلي التسريع بتسلّم الجيش السوري للحدود الجنوبية، حتى لو تمّت المقايضة بين عدم وجود انتشار لإيران وحزب الله في المنطقة بطلب تفكيك القاعدة الأميركية في التنف، التي تولّى الروس بلسان وزير خارجيتهم جعلها مصدر الشرّ الدائم في سورية. وهم يعلمون أنها أعرق وأخطر القواعد الأميركية لإمساكها بطريق دمشق بغداد التي تشكّل جوهر الحركة الاستراتيجية لإيران في المنطقة.

– أميركا و»إسرائيل» بين خيارين اليوم، خوض حرب أو قبول تسوية. حرب ميؤوس من الفوز بها وسرعان ما ستنزلق نحو تهديد العمق الإسرائيلي والمواجهات على التخوم. والتجربة الأخيرة لليلة الصواريخ تحكي الكثير. أو ارتضاء تسوية تضمن التسليم بوحدة وسيادة الدولة السورية بجيشها ورئيسها، انطلاقاً من الجنوب، بنموذج سيتكرّر شمالاً، تحت عنوان مقايضة القواعد الأميركية بعدم انتشار قوى المقاومة في المناطق التي سيخليها الأميركيون والجماعات المسلحة التي تتلقى الدعم منهم. والخيار هنا يشبه خيار المسلحين المحدود تفاوضياً بانتقاء لون الباصات التي سيرحلون عليها، أو التسمية التي سينضوي من يبقى منهم عبرها تحت عباءة الجيش السوري، بلجان محلية أو دفاع شعبي.

– ستكون للسعوديين والإسرائيليين ومعهم بعض رموز المعارضة فرصة الاحتفال بالتسوية، كما احتفلوا بالحلّ السياسي للسلاح الكيميائي السوري، وهم يعلمون أن آخر فرصهم قد ضاعت في سورية.

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The American withdrawal from Syria has become imminent الانسحاب الأميركي من سورية صار على الطاولة

 

 The American withdrawal from Syria has become imminent

يونيو 5, 2018

Written by Nasser Kandil,

It is not easy for Syria’s enemies to recognize the fact that it has succeeded along with its allies in winning the battle of the unity of Syria and its sovereignty. It is the goal for which Iran came, Hezbollah intervened, and Russia positioned, while the Americans, Turks, Israelis, and Saudis came in order to overthrow Syria, to divide it and to grasp its sovereignty along with Al-Qaeda and ISIS. After the victories achieved by the Syrian army with the support of its allies, the President Vladimir Putin and the President Bashar Al-Assad announced the convergence between a political process and the exit of the foreign forces. It was clear that the issue is the US presence and the project of the Kurdish secession which it protects, because it is not easy to deal with the Turkish occupation during their presence, while with the end of the US presence and the project of the Kurdish secession the Turkish occupation will fall twice by knockout, it will not be able to justify its presence with the end of the secession project and will not be able to refuse the withdrawal since the Americans preceded it.

Contrary to every expected calendar, the Presidents Putin and Al-Assad put the priority for the US withdrawal. The expectations were to resolve Idlib’s front politically, security, and militarily before opening the file of the US occupation and the project of the Kurdish secession, but the destination was towards the south. Many people did not pay attention that the intended political process starts there and its issue is the US presence, so what will be applied in the South will be the scenario of the north. In the south there is the most important US military base in the Syrian territories; Tanf Base, it is the gate between Damascus and Baghdad, and it is the actual background of all the armed groups which tampered in the security and formed the permanent threat to the concept of sovereignty and unity. Furthermore, the extension of the Saudi presence by Jordanian proxy is in the south, and the Israeli security involved with the security belt on the borders of Golan which the leaders of the occupation entity declared that Al Nusra is entrusted to is also in the south.

After checking what was issued as positions, analyses, and statements from Damascus, Moscow, and Tehran especially what the President Al-Assad, the Foreign Minister Walid Al Moallem, and the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran Ali Shamkhani said that the priority is to dismantle Tanf Base, and after the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has already talked about Tanf Base in his daily statements as promoted in the Saudi media as a title of the Russian-Israeli deal at the expense of Iran and Hezbollah describing  it with as a title of sabotage, in contrast, after what has been issued in Washington and what the Assistant Secretary of State David Satterfield posed as published by Middle East newspaper, it seems clear that the negotiation is revolving about dismantling Tanf Base as an essential element of any settlement in the south of Syria and to hand over the security in the region till the borders of Golan and Jordan’s borders and Iraqis  borders to the Syrian Army since Washington agreed to dismantle and to withdraw.

This great historic achievement is outstanding because it means the approaching of the end of the war on Syria and the announcement of the historic and strategic victory, because it will be repeated quickly in the north. This is the meaning of the synchronization between south’s settlement and later the north one according to the conditions determined by the President Al-Assad with the completion of the committee that has emerged from Sochi conference for the political solution. The US talk about a compromise entitled the formation of a collective government where America and its groups in the Gulf and their followers have not but to talk about imaginary achievement is an ambush that has been made in Syrian-Russian –Iranian operations room along with the resistance, it is to hand over the security of the territories and the borders to the Syrian army as if Iran and the resistance entered to Syria just to deploy where the Syrian army deploys not to support the Syrian army when it is necessary to impose its deployment and to spread its sovereignty as a national army. This is certified by the leaders of Iran and the resistance, who will celebrate its achievement as a historic strategic victory along with the Syrian leadership, the people, and the army by grasping the recognition of the enemies after a war of nearly eight years that the project of overthrowing Syria and its division has collapsed irreversibly and that Syria is unified under the leadership of its president and army and its cohesion and the cohesion of its allies around it.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

 

الانسحاب الأميركي من سورية صار على الطاولة

يونيو 4, 2018

ناصر قنديل

– لن يكون سهلاً على أعداء سورية الاعتراف بأنها مع حلفائها نجحوا بالفوز بمعركة وحدة سورية وسيادتها. وهو الهدف الذي من أجله جاءت إيران ودخل حزب الله وتموضعت روسيا في هذه الحرب. ومن أجل إسقاط سورية وتقسيمها وسلب سيادتها جاء الأميركيون والأتراك والإسرائيليون والسعوديون وجلبوا القاعدة وداعش. وبعد الانتصارات التي حققها الجيش السوري بدعم حلفائه، أعلن الرئيسان فلاديمير بوتين وبشار الأسد عن التزاوج بين عملية سياسية وخروج القوات الأجنبية، وكان واضحاً أنّ القضية هي في الوجود الأميركي ومشروع الانفصال الكردي الذي يحميه، فببقائهما معاً، الاحتلال والانفصال، لن تسهل معالجة الاحتلال التركي، وبزوال الاحتلال الأميركي ومشروع الانفصال الكردي يسقط الاحتلال التركي مرتين، بالضربة القاضية، فلا هو قادر على تبرير البقاء بزوال مشروع الانفصال ولا هو قادر على رفض الانسحاب وقد سبقه الأميركيون.

– خلافاً لكلّ روزنامة متوقعة، وضع الرئيسان بوتين والأسد أولوية الانسحاب الأميركي وكانت التوقعات أن يتمّ الحسم في جبهة إدلب سياسياً وأمنياً وعسكرياً، قبل فتح ملف الاحتلال الأميركي ومشروع الانفصال الكردي، فجاء التوجّه جنوباً، ولم ينتبه كثيرون أنّ العملية السياسية المقصودة تبدأ هناك، وأنّ موضوعها هو الوجود الأميركي، وأنّ ما سينطبق في الجنوب سيكون هو سيناريو الشمال. وفي الجنوب أهمّ القواعد العسكرية الأميركية في الأراضي السورية وهي قاعدة التنف، وهي الممسكة ببوابة العبور بين دمشق وبغداد. وهي الخلفية الفعلية لكلّ العصابات المسلحة التي عبثت بالأمن وشكّلت التهديد الدائم لمفهومَي السيادة والوحدة، وفي الجنوب الامتداد للحضور السعودي بالوكالة الأردنية، وفي الجنوب الأمن الإسرائيلي المرتبط بمشروع حزام أمني على حدود الجولان صرّح قادة كيان الاحتلال أن النصرة تُؤتمَن عليه.

– يبدو اليوم واضحاً من الجمع بين ما صدر من مواقف وتحليلات وتصريحات، من دمشق وموسكو، وطهران، خصوصاً ما قاله الرئيس الأسد ووزير الخارجية وليد المعلم ورئيس مجلس الأمن القومي الإيراني علي شمخاني، إنّ الأولوية هي تفكيك قاعدة التنف، وقد سبق لوزير الخارجية الروسي سيرغي لافروف، الذي يتمّ تسويقه في الإعلام السعودي كعنوان لصفقة روسية إسرائيلية على حساب إيران وحزب الله، أن جعل قاعدة التنف موضوعاً يومياً لتصريحاته، واصفاً إياها بعنوان التخريب. وفي المقابل ما صدر في واشنطن وما عرضه نائب وزير الخارجية الأميركية ديفيد ساترفيلد كما نشرت جريدة الشرق الأوسط ، أنّ التفاوض يدور على تفكيك قاعدة التنف كعنصر جوهري لأيّ تسوية في جنوب سورية، عنوانها تسلّم الجيش السوري الأمن في المنطقة حتى حدود الجولان وحدود الأردن وحدود العراق، وأنّ واشنطن موافقة على التفكيك والانسحاب.

– يتقدّم بصورة مدهشة النجاح بتحقيق هذا الإنجاز التاريخي الكبير الذي يعني قرب نهاية الحرب على سورية، وإعلان النصر التاريخي والاستراتيجي، لأنّه سيكون قابلاً للتكرار في الشمال، وبسرعة، وهذا معنى التزامن بين تسوية الجنوب ولاحقاً الشمال بالشروط التي حدّدها الرئيس الأسد، مع اكتمال اللجنة المنبثقة عن مؤتمر سوتشي للحلّ السياسي، والحديث الأميركي عن تسوية عنوانها تشكيل حكومة جامعة، ولا يملك الأميركي وجماعاته في الخليج وأتباعهم سوى إطلاق القنابل الدخانية، والحديث عن إنجاز وهمي. وهو كمين تمّ تصنيعه في غرفة عمليات سورية روسية إيرانية مع المقاومة، هو أن يكون الجيش السوري وحده مَن يتسلّم أمن المناطق والحدود، كأنّ إيران والمقاومة دخلا إلى سورية للانتشار، حيث ينتشر الجيش السوري، وليس للوقوف إلى جانب الجيش السوري حيث يستدعي الأمر معركة لفرض انتشاره وبسط سيادته. والمقصود سيادته هو كجيش وطني. وهو ما يؤكده قادة إيران والمقاومة صبحاً ومساء، وسيحتفلون بتحقيقه كنصر تاريخي استراتيجي جنباً إلى جنب مع القيادة السورية والشعب والجيش في سورية، بانتزاع اعتراف الأعداء بعد حرب تقارب سنتها الثامنة من نصفها، بأنّ مشروع إسقاط سورية وتقسيمها قد سقط إلى غير رجعة، وأنّ سورية موحدة في ظلّ رئيسها وجيشها تنتصر بقوة تماسكها وتماسك حلفائها من حولها.

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