نصرالله يقطع طريق الحرب الأميركية على إيران

نصرالله يقطع طريق الحرب الأميركية على إيران

روزانا رمّال

بعد دخول حزب الله الأزمة السورية من بابها العريض والمشاركة الميدانية القتالية فيها وتحقيقه مكاسب أمنية جديّة، وبعد دخول إيران الحرب بثقل عسكري واستخباري ولوجستي جنباً الى جنب مع الجيش السوري، لم يعد ممكناً فصل خطاب امين عام حزب الله السيد حسن نصرالله عن مركزية حضوره في هذا الحلف الذي أعلن منذ اقتسام ملف قتال «الإرهاب» في ما بينه بكل الاراضي السورية ان الخطر القومي وتهديد الأمن الحيوي للمحور هو «واحد».

المقاربة الإيرانية والسورية إضافة لحزب الله في مسألة مواجهة الانتكاسات أو تقاسم الأرباح في المنطقة أصبحا وجهة متكاملة ومؤسسة لهيكل المقاومة التي يعتبرها الحلف ضرورة في ديمومة رسالته وحضوره، ففي وقت تتمسك إيران بشعار الراعي للمقاومة والمستضعفين وكل أحرار العالم أمام الطغيان المتجسّد بمنظارها أميركياً و«إسرائيلياً»، باتت مسألة الدعم المباشر مترجمة واقعاً بحضور القوى القادرة على تبيان جدوى الحلف ومغزاه.

تقود إيران في اليمن حرباً غير مباشرة مع السعودية ومن ورائها «إسرائيل»، وقد أكد امين عام حزب الله السيد حسن نصرالله بذكرى مهرجان القادة الشهداء بأنها حرب «إسرائيلية». ضمن هذا المنطلق، يُشرّع حزب الله مسألة دعمه القتال في اليمن وهو ليس قتالاً ضد مجموعات إرهابية مثل داعش أو النصرة ولا يشبه على الإطلاق مسألة قرب الحدود مع لبنان على غرار مدينة القصير السورية وضرورة استباق الحرب قبل أن تصل لبنان، بل إنها ترجمة لواجب ودور تفرضه «إسرائيل» أينما وجِدت أو وجدت خيوط مشاريعها فتخلق «المشروعية».

هذا الحديث يؤكد ان حزب الله لا ينتظر إذناً ولا تمنعه «حدود» عن المشاركة في القتال داخل فلسطين المحتلة على غرار مشاركته في الحرب السورية بثقل، وفي الحرب العراقية واليمنية على شكل خبراء ومتدرّبين، كما أكد نائب الامين العام لحزب الله الشيخ نعيم قاسم لـ«البناء» في وقت سابق.

الأكيد أن حزب الله لن يتأخّر لحظة في المشاركة في أي دور قتالي داخل فلسطين المحتلة، وأنه كان ممكناً أن يتقدم المشهد لو كانت الأمور أسهل ومفتوحة لوجستياً، ولو كان هذا الأمر حاجة لا يستطيع الفلسطينيون تحقيقها. وهنا باب آخر يستدعي استذكار دعم إيران وحزب الله للحركات المقاومة على اختلافها داخل الأراضي المحتلة وخارجها.

«التدخل» «واجب»، حيث أمكن، بالنسبة لحزب الله الذي يشكل عصب هذا المحور، لكن الأهم قدرته على أداء أدوار استثنائية تحت عنوان صفته كحركة مقاومة لا تفتحها أو تشرّعها الصفة الرسمية للدول. لهذا السبب هو يشارك في حروب في اليمن والعراق وسورية من دون أن يشكل هذا توريطاً مباشراً للبنان أو حتى لتلك الحكومات أو الجهات التي شرعت مشاركته كـ»خيار خاص».

يرفع حزب الله مسألة قتال «إسرائيل» أينما وجدت عكس ما يُشاع أو يُطلب منه حصر المهمة في الأراضي اللبنانية، وهو أمر منافٍ للواجب والمقدّسات العقائدية ولروحية الصراع مع «إسرائيل» بالنسبة له.

خطاب نصرالله في ذكرى قادة حزب الله الشهداء جاء فيه ما يقلق «إسرائيل» لدرجة «مهولة» بالشقّ المتعلق في دعوته أو نصيحته للحكومة «الإسرائيلية» بأنه لا يجب عليها فقط إخلاء خزان الأمونيا في حيفا، بل عليها تفكيك مفاعل ديمونا النووي، والسلاح النووي «الإسرائيلي» الذي يشكّل تهديداً لكل المنطقة فيتحوّل عبر معادلة حزب الله هذه تهديداً لـ«إسرائيل» وشدّد عليها بأن المقاومة تفي بما تَعِد.

لكن هذا التهديد ليس تهديداً محصوراً بحسابات الحزب مع «إسرائيل» محلياً ولم يعد يتوقف عند كلمة خارجة عن منظومة أو محور بأكمله. فكلمة نصرالله التي تأتي بمقدمة هذا المحور في حربه مع «إسرائيل» وتوحيد جبهات القتال لكل المحور منذ الحرب السورية في المنطقة كلها هي إشارة شديدة الوضوح الى استحالة اعتبار مسألة الحرب الأميركية على إيران وما تطلقه الإدارة الأميركية من تصعيد كلامي «فُهم» على أنه نيات لحرب على طهران أمراً ممكناً أو بالاستطاعة فصله عن حيثية المحور ونظرته لمسألة الحروب الأميركية «الإسرائيلية». بالتالي حيث تكون «إسرائيل» سيكون هناك حزب الله أو مَن يستدعيه ضمن «الحلف». وهو الأمر نفسه الذي تعتمده واشنطن أو تل أبيب وحلفاؤهما في أي حرب على إيران بما يعنيه استخدام قواعد أميركية في الخليج لضرب إيران أو في تركيا. وهذا كله يبيح استخدام الحلفاء القدرات العسكرية الموحّدة كافة في حروبهم وهو ما تشرّعه العلوم العسكرية والسياسية ضمن ماهية الأحلاف وأدوارها تاريخياً.

وبعد رفع مرتبة تهديد حزب الله لمصاف الدرجة الأولى وفق التقارير الأمنية «الإسرائيلية»، وهو ما أعلنه نصرالله ليليه إيران ثم المقاومة الفلسطينية، فإن تحليل كلمة نصرالله في أجهزة الاستخبارات الأميركية و«الإسرائيلية» معاً سيأخذ بعين الاعتبار تعقيداً دقيقاً، وهو ما أخذه نصرالله على عاتقه بإعلانه استعداده لسحق قدرات «إسرائيل» النووية وغيرها بالكامل. وهو الأمر الذي «تخطّى» عملياً إشكالية ملف إيران «النووي» الذي أصبح يشكّل في هذه الحالة تلويحاً كلامياً وإعلامياً. فلم يصدر أي تهديد عن إيران باستخدام سلاح نووي ضد «إسرائيل» مثل ما ألمح أمين عام حزب الله وتناوله الخطر النووي على «إسرائيل» بشكل معاكس من جهة لبنان.

نصرالله يقطع الطريق على حرب أميركية «إسرائيلية» على إيران ويُبعد توقيت الحرب «الإسرائيلية» عن لبنان.

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Sayyed Nasrallah: Hizbullah Strongly Supports Syria Cease-fire, Trump A Fool who Unveiled US Real Face

Zeinab Essa

Hizbullah Secretary General His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah announced Sunday that the resistance supports and welcomes any ceasefire in Syria.

In a speech commemorating the late Hizbullah Central Council official, Sheikh HusseiSayyed Nasrallah: Hizbullah Strongly Supports Syria Cease-fire, Trump A Fool who Unveiled US Real Facen Obeid, His Eminence highlighted that his party backs any ceasefire agreement in Syria because it’s with any measure that ends the bloodshed and gives an opportunity to political solutions and national reconciliations.

He further denounced some Arab media outlets that have been falsely accusing Hizbullah of rejecting Syria ceasefire concluded in Astana talks.

In this context, His Eminence said: “Hizbullah and Iran support the ceasefire, the reconciliation, and the political settlement in Syria, while some Arab states are still backing the military option.”
“We are keen on addressing some pressing humanitarian crises, on top of which is that of Foua, Kafraya, Madaya and other towns,” Sayyed Nasrallah stated.

Rejecting all fabricated reports regarding Hizbullah’s alleged plan to bring about demographic changes to the Syrian front, His Eminence clearly denied the accusations raised by those who claim that Hizbullah and the Syrian government seek demographic change across the Syrian cities.

“Let Muslim, Arab and independent delegations visit Syria to verify that there are no demographic changes… These lies are aimed at sectarian incitement,” the Resistance Leader cautioned.

In parallel, he pointed out that “Aleppo’s victory greatly contributed greatly to the reconciliations and political settlements in Syria.”

According to His Eminence, the recent military victories have turned vast areas of Syria into safe regions.

“The whole world came after six years of fighting, to confront the sides that we started to,” he added, noting that “the path in Syria took another turn thanks to the steadfastness of the Syrian leadership, the Syrian army and the people and all those who refused to submit to the Takfiri terrorism.”

Moving to the Lebanese front from the Syrian one, Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that “The file of Syrian refugees is not a sectarian file but rather a file that is putting pressure on Lebanon.”

Moreover, he urged the Lebanese to carry their responsibility and to deal with the issue of refugees in a humanitarian manner, regardless of fears or political affiliations. “Should we keep begging for international aid or should we cooperate to return most refugees to their towns, villages, cities and homes?” His Eminence wondered.

On this level, Sayyed Nasrallah elaborated: “We will be told that these people fear to return out of concern over the regime’s vengeance and I tell them that they can go to Syria to live in security and safety.”

As he called for cooperation toward repatriating Syrian refugees back to their homeland, His Eminence urged the Lebanese government to send a delegation that would evaluate the outcome of reconciliations in Syria.

“It is the responsibility of the Lebanese government and Lebanese political forces to convince these refugees to accept to go back to their cities and villages in Syria,” Sayyed Nasrallah emphasized.

In addition he announced Hizbullah’s readiness to “serve the Lebanese state” and contact the Syrian authorities on the matter.”

“It’s our duty to deal with the case of the refugees in a humanitarian, rather than political manner,” he said.

Urging the Lebanese government and political forces to end their stubbornness and to initiate dialogue with the Syrian government over this file, Sayyed Nasrallah raised the following question:
“Why do you talk with the countries that created Daesh and al-Nusra Front and you don’t talk with the Syrian government to address a humanitarian file of this importance?”

On another aspect, Sayyed Nasrallah tackled the Lebanese electoral law, reiterating Hizbullah’s support for a new electoral law based on proportionality.

“All sides are talking about a fair electoral law that allows all sides to represent in the Parliament and doesn’t eliminate anyone,” he highlighted.

He further expressed Hizbullah’s support for proportionality because it’s keen to preserve the rights of all sects, parties and minorities.

His Eminence went on to say that the current 1960 majoritarian vote law is equal to a cancellation system.

“We have a serious desire to block any new extension and to hold elections on time,” Sayyed Nasrallah declared, noting that the winner-takes-all electoral system is an exclusionary law and proportional representation does not eliminate the Druze community or the Future party.

“I say that proportional representation does not eliminate the Druze community, the Progressive Social Party or the Future, it rather reflects the true political weight of each party.”

His Eminence warned against wasting more time in talks over the electoral system.
“Stop wasting time. We should not shut the door. If we reached the deadline, we will be moving into the unknown,” he said, repeating Hizbullah’s openness to dialogue.

On the security level, particularly with respect to the Bekaa region, Sayyed Nasrallah renewed the call again to the Lebanese state to effectively hold its responsibility for the security situation in the Bekaa.

He also called on the Lebanese Army and the security services to deal with the security problems in the Bekaa within the limits of the law, adding that “security is not only the responsibility of the state only but it is a social responsibility also.”

“The matter doesn’t only relate to security but targets the dignity of the people,” His Eminence said.

He praised cooperation between security agencies and the Lebanese Army, calling on the public to avoid moves that would put stability at risk.

“Stability is a bless which the Lebanese must hold and do not waste,” he said.

On the general budget, Sayyed Nasrallah renewed Hizbullah’s firm refusal “of approving any new taxes or fees on poor Lebanese families.”

“Instead of taxes, end embezzlement, corruption, wasting money and unauthorized spending,” he said, noting that a courageous political decision should be taken to cut down unnecessary spending.

Commenting on the new threats posed by the new US President, Donald Trump, Sayyed Nasrallah undermined the impact of the new administration on the region.

“Trump merely set aside hypocrisy and revealed the true and ugly face of the unjust, criminal and racist US administration,” he stated, pointing out that Hizbullah is not worried, but optimistic, for [he] who is residing in the White House is a fool.

His Eminence also said “this is the beginning of our relief. The victory that has been achieved in 1985, in 2000 and 2006 and is being scored in Syria and Iraq will be achieved in Yemen.”

“Neither Trump nor George W. Bush and all those racists will touchthe courage, the will or the faith of a child of our children as well as our men and our elders.”

Source: al-Ahed news

12-02-2017 | 21:44

Syrian War Report – February 10, 2017: Syrian Army Clashes With Pro-Turksih Militants Near Al-Bab

ٍSouth Front

In the northern Aleppo countryside, the towns of Tell Rifaat, Menagh, Mayer, Tell Jibbin, Ma’arasteh Khan and Hardatnin have joined a reconciliation agreement with the Syrian government after talks with a Russian mediation. Tell Rifaat and Menagh had been controlled by the Kurdish YPG.

On February 9, an escalation erupted between Syrian government and Turkish forces in the area of al-Bab.

Initially the Turkish General Staff announced that an accidental Russian airstrike had killed three Turkish soldiers and wounded 11 others in the area of al-Bab. The incident was confirmed by the Russian military.

Later at the same day, pro-Turkish militants engaged Syrian army and National Defense Forces (NDF) troops at Abu Zandin and Shamawiya located at the road to the ISIS stronghold of al-Bab.

As a result of a series of firefights, two Syrian soldiers were allegedly killed and pro-Turkish militants seized a BMP vehicle.

The Hawar-Kilis Operation Room, one of the biggest factions involved in the Turkish Operation Euphrates Shield, was involved in the escalation. Also, Turkish artillery units allegedly delivered a number of strikes against government forces in the area, according to sources close to Hawar-Kilis.

The escalation came amid reports that Turkish forces once again entered into Qabasin and Bzaah, and the army and the NDF liberated Abu Taltal located in a striking distance from Tadef, an important ISIS defense site at the southern flank of al-Bab.

Separately, Islamists launched an advance in northeastern Latakia, engaging government forces at the Rashu Hill. Initially, militants seized the area and made attempt to develop the success, but then the army and the NDF reversed their gains. The situation remains tense.

SYRIAN WAR REPORT – FEBRUARY 7, 2017: SYRIAN MILITARY DEPLOYS ELITE UNITS TO BATTLE FOR PALMYRA

Turkish forces once against lost the key town of Bzaah east of Al-Bab after temporarily capturing it from ISIS yesterday. Meanwhile, ISIS units launched an advance against pro-Turkish militants in Al-Ameh aiming to re-establish a supply line to al-Bab which had been under constant artillery fire from the Syrian army since Sunday.

Sporadic firefights and artillery duels continue between pro-Turkish forces and the so-called “Syrian Democratic Forces” backed by the US in northern Aleppo. Recently clashes were observed near Sheikh Issa, Ayn Daqnah, Tell Rifaat, Mranaz and Shawarigha. An armored personnel carrier with pro-Turkish fighters was destroyed by the SDF between Jibrin and Ayn Daqnah.

At least 6 ISIS vehicles equipped with machine guns were destroyed by the army and the NDF in the clashes near the al-Seen Airbase. Some 34 ISIS members were also reported dead.

The Desert Hawks Brigade has deployed to the area of the Tiyas Airbase in order to support the Syrian army’s advance against ISIS in the province of Homs. The brigade will participate in the army’s operation to liberate the gas fields north of the Homs-Palmyra highway and allegedly take part in the advance on Palmyra. Pro-government sources claim that up to dozen of ISIS suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices were destroyed in the recent clashes in the area.

Strategically, government forces will need to Palmyra back from ISIS if they want to develop an advance in the direction of Deir Ezzor where the army defends local population from ISIS attacks. In case of the Russian-US coordination over the conflict, this push will be likely synchronized with the US-backed operation aimed to isolate al-Raqqah. This will increase a military pressure on ISIS and will push it to fight on two fronts in the area between al-Raqqah and Deir Ezzor simultaneously.

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Lest There Be Any Doubt: Israeli Support for Syrian Terrorists

Posted on February 10, 2017

dmisral4tr

Readers can go here to view a Daily Mail article reporting on “secret missions,” mounted by Israeli forces on a “nightly” basis, “to save the lives of Syrian fighters, all of whom are sworn enemies of the Jewish state.” Written by Jake Wallis Simons, a Daily Mail “Global Editor” who “embedded” himself with the Israeli troops carrying out the rescue missions, the article includes photos and videos of wounded jihadis being given medical treatment.

The story discusses treatment by paramedics at the scene, on the Syrian border, as well that given in an Israeli hospital, where the militants are then transported. Simons characterizes the effort mainly as  “humanitarian” in nature, though he allows for the possibility of certain political objectives as well, including the goal of winning “hearts and minds” in Syria as well as improving Israel’s reputation internationally. He makes no mention of Israeli ambitions of overthrowing the Syrian government or the horrible atrocities that may have been, and most likely were, committed by the very people being given medical treatment, but discerning readers will keep those things in mind.

What we do find, near the bottom of the article, is the following confession:

“Significantly, an Israeli spokesman confirmed that no medical support has been provided to any militants from the Shia alliance.”

In other words, wounded Iranians or Hezbollah fighters–presently in Syria to fight ISIS terrorists–will not have their wounds stitched up by the “humanitarian” Israelis.

For several years now there have been reports of Israel giving support of one kind or another to terrorists in Syria. The Daily Mail article would seem to provide confirmation of this for anyone who may still have entertained any doubts.

Al-Bab: Syrian Army honors civilians who helped behind enemy lines

Syrian Arab Army paid tribute to fallen residents of Al-Bab countryside who helped them in the fight against the Islamic State of Irak and al-Sham (ISIS), behind the enemy lines.

These civilians were in direct contact with the SAA command center and used to work as spies within ISIS-held territory, giving information and gathering coordinates for air and artillery strikes.

The group was discovered and killed by ISIS militants while they were trying to escape; the Syrian Armed Forces retrieved their bodies two days ago, helding a funeral to mourn them.

The ceremony was headed by Jamil Hassan, chief of the Syrian Air Force Intelligence Directorate, and Suheil Al-Hassan, main commander of Tiger Forces.

S A A Continues Intensive Operations against ISIS

Army Continues Intensive Operations against ISIS in Homs and Deir Ezzor

PROVINCES- The Army and Armed Forces units continued on Friday their intensive operations in the eastern countryside of Homs in the direction of al-Mahr oil field, al-Bida al-Sharqia village and Hayan gas plant in the northwest countryside of Tadmur (Palmyra) city, SANA reported.

According to SANA reporter in Homs ISIS terrorist organization burned Hayan gas plant before its terrorists fled towards the area of the oil wells and gas fields, where smoke and flames were seen from long distances in the desert.

The reporter added that army units, in cooperation with the supporting forces, carried out intensive operations on ISIS sites in the direction of Hayan gas plant and al-Mahr oil field, killing a number of ISIS terrorists, injuring others and destroying a number of their vehicles in the hills surrounding the field.

The reporter noted that the ground operations of the army units and the supporting forces coincided with airstrikes of the Syrian Air Force on the convoys of vehicles and gatherings for ISIS in the area of oil wells and gas fields in the northwest of Tadmur(Palmyra), killing scores of ISIS terrorists.

The reporter pointed out that the airstrikes also targeted ISIS supply routes in the direction of Aqirbat village in the eastern countryside of Salamiyeh, destroying a number of vehicles equipped with machineguns.

Deir Ezzor

The Syrian Air Force lunched airstrikes on the sites and movements of ISIS terrorist organization in the area surrounding Deir Ezzor city.

A military source told SANA that the Syrian airstrikes concentrated on Talit al-Khanzir, al-Ma’amel ( factories) area and Tharda crossroad in Deir Ezzor,

inflicting heavy losses upon ISIS terrorists in personnel and equipment, including destroying a bobby-trapped vehicle on al-Syasia Bridge.

The source added that army units continued advancing in the graveyards area and cut off ISIS supply routes from the direction of al-Difa’a Camp.

On Thursday, the Syrian Arab Army advanced in the area of western Deir ez-Zor, aiming to knock out mercenary-terrorists of Daesh (ISIS, ISIL). Syrian troops succeeded to capture a factory and were able to liberate the local airport from the militants. However, some of the roads are still infested by armed criminals, whose hours are counted.

[Graphic 18+] ISIS corpses litter battlefield as the Syrian Army advances in east Damascus

BEIRUT, LEBANON (5:30 P.M.) – The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) launched a necessary counter-offensive agianst the Islamic State (ISIS) forces near the Al-Sin Airbase in east Damascus on Thursday, attacking the Battalion 559 Base from two different flanks.

Led by the Qalamoun Shield of the 3rd Armored Division, the Syrian Arab Army managed to recapture the Al-Safa Rest Station from the Islamic State forces, killing and wounding tens of terrorists in the process of this advance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Leith Fadel | Al-Masdar News

Following the liberation of the Al-Safa Station, the Syrian Arab Army stormed several sites around the Al-Safa Peak, destroying at least 5 vehicles that belonged to the Islamic State, including 2 Of the terrorist group’a tanks.

According to a military source in Damascus, the Syrian Arab Army is now advancing north of the Al-Sin Airbase, while another unit pushes east to force the Islamic State militants to abandon this area.

 

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Is there any Russian-Iranian-Syrian dispute in Astana? خلاف روسي إيراني سوري في أستانة؟

Is there any Russian-Iranian-Syrian dispute in Astana?

Written by Nasser Kandil,

The Saudi and the Qatari media are waging a campaign since the end of Aleppo’s battles, Moscow’s Meetings which brought together the Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Defense in Russia, Iran, and Turkey, and the announcement of a truce and Astana process for dialogue, its center is the indication to Russian contradiction with Iran and the Syrian government, and the Russian Turkish rapprochement that disturbs Tehran and Damascus. The symbols of the Syrian factions that are involved with Turkey in the truce and Astana, in addition to the rest of writers and analysts who are affiliated to the axis of Riyadh and Ankara repeat the same speech. In the eve of Astana the voices are raised foreshadowing the aggravation of the dispute between Moscow and each of Damascus and Tehran, and the convergence of each of Moscow and Ankara in return.

If we imagine our position as observers in Tehran and we want to write a perfect scenario for Astana Talks it will be like that. First, the previous political attempts for the dialogue about Syria have been made under the US Russian auspices, and a dominant American preponderance, and because America is an opponent of Iran so the ideal choice is the proving of the success of the Syrian-Syrian dialogue under mono Russian auspices. This requires showing Russia as an honest acceptable mediator by all on one hand, and on the other hand it requires the acceptance of the opposite bank represented by Turkey of that mono role of the mediation of Russia without   demanding an active US partnership, as well as restricting the regional partnership with Turkey, preventing the demand of an active Saudi partnership. Because Washington and Riyadh are two direct rivals of Tehran, and because it was said a lot about the alliance of Ankara and Tehran, so it is useful to focus on the dispute with Ankara this time and retaliate upon Washington and Riyadh which have put veto once on the participation of Iran in Geneva Conference dedicated to Syria, towards excluding Saudi Arabia completely, so this restricts the regional sponsor of the opposition with Turkey and grants Washington which is necessary to attend the weakest level of the representation that does not affect the single Russian auspices.

From Tehran we will see that this scenario gets the interest of Damascus for similar reasons which make it the perfect scenario for Tehran, as in the agenda, it will be important for Tehran and Damascus to prevent making Astana an opportunity that is restricted with the political troublemaking under the slogan of the future of the presidency in Syria as many delegations of the opposition have done it before, as well as frustrating the attempt of Turkey and the armed groups to get a long truce waiting the crystallization of the new US position, without resolving the position toward Al Nusra front, and the recognition of considering the ceiling of the political dialogue the attempt to unify the efforts in the war on terrorism. This requires the fall of the slogan of overthrowing the regime and replacing the talk about a political solution for a transitional phase with the seek to have consensus on the frameworks of the national reconciliation from within the institutions of the constitutional state and under their presidency, in addition to the Turkish commitment of closing the borders, stopping the supply of Al Nusra front and the  participation of its siege, as well as ending the illegal presence of its troops in Syria through the withdrawal or through linking this presence with an agreement with the Syrian government that determines its tasks and its duration within the alliance with Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah within the context of the war on terrorism.

Russia will be grateful for this scenario, because it states what it has said repeatedly that it anticipated to it, and it makes it avoid  Turkey’s making use of the relationship with it to raise its negotiating price with Washington as happened repeatedly, moreover it will enlist the groups which are still within the gray area between Al Nusra and the opposition in front of critical moment, thus the position toward Al Nusra will be a condition to ensure cease-fire instead of applying ceasing-fire which Al Nusra will benefit from it as happened before.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

يناير 23, 2017

خلاف روسي إيراني سوري في أستانة؟

ناصر قنديل

– يخوض الإعلام السعودي والقطري حملة منذ نهاية معارك حلب واجتماعات موسكو التي جمعت وزراء الخارجية والدفاع في روسيا وإيران وتركيا والإعلان عن الهدنة وعملية أستانة للحوار، محورها الإشارة لتناقض روسي مع إيران والحكومة السورية وعن تقارب روسي تركي مزعج لطهران ودمشق، ويتوالى رموز الفصائل السورية المنخرطة مع تركيا في الهدنة وأستانة وسائر الكتاب والمحللين المحسوبين على محور الرياض أنقرة على ترداد ذات الكلام، وعشية انعقاد أستانة ترتفع الأصوات مبشرة بتفاقم الخلاف بين موسكو وكل من دمشق وطهران وتقارب موسكو وأنقرة بالمقابل.

– إذا تخيّلنا موقعنا كمراقبين في طهران وأردنا رسم سيناريو مثالي لمحادثات أستانة فسيكون على الشكل التالي، أولاً إن المحاولات السياسية السابقة للحوار حول سورية تمّت برعاية ثنائية أميركية روسية وبأرجحية أميركية طاغية، ولأن أميركا هي خصم إيران، فالخيار المثالي هو إثبات نجاح حوار سوري سوري برعاية روسية أحادية. وهذا يستدعي تظهير روسيا وسيطاً نزيهاً ومقبولاً من الجميع من جهة، وما يستدعيه من قبول الضفة الموازية التي تمثلها تركيا بهذا الدور الأحادي للوساطة لروسيا من دون المطالبة بشراكة أميركية فاعلة، وحصر الشراكة الإقليمية بتركيا وقطع الطريق على المطالبة بشراكة سعودية فاعلة. ولأن واشنطن والرياض خصمان مباشران لطهران، ولأن أنقرة قيل الكثير عن حلفها مع طهران، فمن المفيد التركيز على الخلاف مع أنقرة هذه المرة، وردّ الصاع صاعين لواشنطن والرياض اللتين وضعتا فيتو ذات مرة على مشاركة إيران في مؤتمر جنيف الخاص بسورية، وصولاً لاستبعاد تام للسعودية يحصر الراعي الإقليمي للمعارضة بتركيا، ويمنح واشنطن التي لا غنى عن وجودها أضعف مستوى للتمثيل لا يمسّ أحادية الرعاية الروسية.

– من طهران أيضاً سنرى أن هذا السيناريو يُعجب دمشق جداً لأسباب مشابهة للأسباب التي تجعله السيناريو النموذجي لطهران، وكذلك في جدول الأعمال، سيكون مهماً لطهران ودمشق قطع الطريق على جعل أستانة فرصة محصورة بالمشاغبة السياسية، تحت شعار مستقبل الرئاسة في سورية، كما درجت وفود المعارضة من قبل، ومنع محاولة تركيا والجماعات المسلحة الحصول على هدنة مديدة، بانتظار تبلور الوضع الأميركي الجديد، من دون حسم الموقف من جبهة النصرة والتسليم باعتبار سقف الحوار السياسي البحث عن توحيد الجهود في الحرب على الإرهاب، وما يستدعيه ذلك من سقوط لشعار إسقاط النظام واستبدال الحديث عن حل سياسي لمرحلة انتقالية بالسعي للتوافق على أطر للمصالحة الوطنية من ضمن مؤسسات الدولة السورية وفي ظل رئاستها، وما يوجبه من التزام تركي بإقفال الحدود وقطع الإمداد عن جبهة النصرة والتشارك في محاصرتها، وإنهاء الوجود غير الشرعي لقواتها في سورية عبر الانسحاب أو عبر ربط هذا الوجود باتفاق مع الحكومة السورية يحدد مهماته ومدته ضمن التحالف مع روسيا وإيران وحزب الله، في إطار الحرب على الإرهاب.

– ستكون روسيا ممتنة لهذا السيناريو، فهو ينطق بما قالت دائماً أنها تتطلع إليه، ويجنبها استعمال تركيا العلاقة معها، لرفع سعرها التفاوضي مع واشنطن كما حدث مراراً، وسيضع الجماعات التي لا تزال ضمن منطقة رمادية بين النصرة والمعارضة أمام لحظة فاصلة، فيصير الموقف من النصرة شرطاً لتثبيت وقف النار بدلاً من وقف للنار تستفيد منه النصرة، كما حدث سابقاً.

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