Syrian President does exclusive interview with Kuwaiti newspaper for first time in years

BEIRUT, LEBANON (2:50 P.M.) – For the first time during the seven-year long conflict inside his country, Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad has conducted an exclusive interview with a Kuwaiti newspaper.

President Assad sat down with Kuwait’s Al-Shahed newspaper on Tuesday in order to discuss a wide-range of topics, including the current conflict inside Syria.

In his interview with journalist Sheikh Sabah Al-Mohammad, the Syrian President said that his nation is involved in a serious media war that is distorting the image of the Middle East and his country.

Assad commended Kuwait and its leader, Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, who he called an “honorable man.”

The Syrian President stressed that Syria would be reentering Arab politics and going back to its “Arab role.”

Assad said that the next phase of the Syrian conflict will concentrate on rebuilding the devastated nation with the help of regional countries.

The Syrian leader also stressed that once the conflict is over, Syria will reopen its doors to the people of region in order to boost its tourism.

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الرئيس الأسد: سوريا عائدة إلى دورها المحوري العربي

أعلن الرئيس بشار الأسد أنه سيسدل قريبا جدا “الستار على الحرب الإرهابية”، معبرا عن ثقته بأن اللعبة السياسية تتغير، وسوريا ستعود إلى “دورها المحوري العربي”.

وشدد الأسد في حديث لصحيفة “الشاهد” الكويتية نشر اليوم الأربعاء، على أن الدولة السورية ستبسط قريبا جدا حكمها وقانونها على جميع الأراضي السورية، “ولن نترك شبرا واحدا من سوريا العروبة خارج السيادة الوطنية”.

ولفت الأسد إلى وجود “تفاهم كبير” بين سوريا وعدد كبير من الدول العربية، مضيفا أن هناك دولا غربية قد بدأت تخطط وتجهز لفتح سفاراتها، كما أن هناك وفودا غربية وعربية سواء كانت دبلوماسية أو اقتصادية أو صناعية قد بدأت بالفعل بالقدوم إلى دمشق لترتيب عودة دولها إلى سوريا.
واعتبر الرئيس  أن دور روسيا في المنطقة “أصبح أمرا واقعا” بالتعاون مع الصين والهند ومجموعة من الدول الصديقة، وقال إن ميزان القوى الدولية سيتغير في المرحلة المقبلة نحو الأفضل، وخصوصا بالنسبة للشرق الأوسط.
ووجه الأسد انتقادات شديدة للإعلام العربي، وقال إنه “انساق وراء المؤسسات الصهيونية الأمريكية التي تحرص كل الحرص على تشويه صورة دول الشرق الأوسط، وبالأخص سوريا”، مشيرا إلى أن حربهم الإعلامية كانت شرسة جدا من خلال الأكاذيب والافتراءات، فضاع الناس بين الحق والباطل”.
وفي المقابل، أشاد الأسد بالدور “المشرف” للإعلام الكويتي في هذا الخصوص، كما أشاد بموقف الكويت وأميرها الشيخ صباح الأحمد الجابر الصباح في قمم المانحين لدعم الشعب السوري.

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Iran, Turkey, Russia Reaffirm Joint Cooperation till Full Eradication of Terrorism in Syria

 

Iran, Turkey, Russia Reaffirm Joint Cooperation till Full Eradication of Terrorism in Syria

September 7, 2018

2889613

At the end of the Tehran trilateral summit on Syrian peace talks within the framework of Astana Peace Process, President Rouhani, President Putin and President Erdogan issued a joint statement.

At the end of the Tehran Trilateral Summit, the presidents of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Russian Federation and the Republic of Turkey issued a joint statement and emphasized their strong and continued commitment to the sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity of the Syrian Arab Republic as well as to the purposes and principles of the UN Charter and highlighted that they should be respected by all.

In the joint statement that was issued on Friday at the end of the Tehran tripartite summit, President Hassan Rouhani, President Vladimir Putin and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reaffirmed their determination to continue cooperation in order to ultimately eliminate ISIL, Al-Nusra Front and all other individuals, groups, undertakings and entities associated with Al-Qaeda or ISIL, as they have been designated as terrorists by the UN Security Council.

The full text of the joint statement is as follows:

Joint Statement by the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the President of the Russian Federation and the President of the Republic of Turkey

Tehran, 7 September 2018

President of the Islamic Republic of Iran H.E. Hassan Rouhani, President of the Russian Federation H.E. Vladimir Putin and President of the Republic of Turkey H.E. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan gathered in Tehran on 7 September 2018 for a Tripartite Summit.

The Presidents:

1.    Expressed their satisfaction with the achievements of the Astana format since January 2017, in particular, the progress made in reducing violence across the Syrian Arab Republic and contributing to peace, security and stability in the country.
2.    Emphasized their strong and continued commitment to the sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity of the Syrian Arab Republic as well as to the purposes and principles of the UN Charter and highlighted that they should be respected by all. They reiterated that no actions, no matter by whom they were undertaken, should undermine these principles. They rejected all attempts to create new realities on the ground under the pretext of combating terrorism and expressed their determination to stand against separatist agendas aimed at undermining the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria as well as the national security of neighboring countries.
3.    Discussed the current situation on the ground, took stock of the developments regarding the Syrian Arab Republic following their last meeting in Ankara on 4 April 2018 and agreed to continue trilateral coordination in accordance with their agreements. In this regard, they took up the situation in Idlib de-escalation area and decided to address it in line with the above-mentioned principles and the spirit of cooperation that characterized the Astana format.
4.    Reaffirmed their determination to continue cooperation in order to ultimately eliminate DAESH/ISIL, Al-Nusra Front and all other individuals, groups, undertakings and entities associated with Al-Qaeda or DAESH/ISIL, as they have been designated as terrorists by the UN Security Council. They underlined that, in the fight against terrorism, separation between the above-mentioned terrorist groups and the armed opposition groups that had joined or would join the ceasefire regime, would be of utmost importance including with respect to preventing civilian casualties.
5.    Reaffirmed their conviction that there could be no military solution to the Syrian conflict and that it could only end through a negotiated political process. They reaffirmed their determination to continue active cooperation with a view to advancing the political process in consistence with the decisions of the Syrian National Dialogue Congress in Sochi and the UN Security Council Resolution 2254.
6.    Reaffirmed their resolve to continue joint efforts aimed at advancing the Syrian led and Syrian-owned process for reaching a political settlement and reiterated their commitment to help establish and launch the work of the Constitutional Committee. They expressed their satisfaction with the useful consultations between their senior officials and the United Nations Secretary General’s Special Envoy for Syria.
7.    Emphasized the need to support all efforts to help all Syrians restore their normal and peaceful life and to alleviate their sufferings. In this regard, they called upon the international community, particularly the United Nations and its humanitarian agencies, to increase their assistance to Syria by providing additional humanitarian aid, facilitating humanitarian mine action, restoring basic infrastructure assets, including social and economic facilities, and preserving historical heritage.
8.    Reaffirmed their determination to continue joint efforts aimed at protecting civilians and improving the humanitarian situation via facilitating rapid, safe and unhindered humanitarian access to all Syrians in need.
9.    Highlighted the need to create conditions for the safe and voluntary return of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) to their original places of residence in Syria. To this end, they emphasized the necessity of coordination among all relevant parties, including the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and other specialized international agencies. They agreed to consider the idea of convening an international conference on Syrian refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs).
10.    Welcomed the progress of the work of the Working Group on the release of detainees/abductees and handover of the bodies as well as the identification of the missing persons, as undertaken with the participation of the UN and ICRC experts.
11.    Decided to hold their next meeting in the Russian Federation upon the invitation of the President of the Russian Federation H.E. Vladimir Putin.
12.    The Presidents of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Turkey expressed their sincere gratitude to the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran H.E. Hassan Rouhani for hosting the Tripartite Summit in Tehran.

Source: Mehr News Agency

 

Putin: Terrorists in Syria’s Idlib Preparing Provocations

Local Editor

2889613

The presidents of Russia, Turkey, and Iran are meeting in Tehran on Friday for the third trilateral summit to discuss the situation in Syria.

Russian President Vladimir Putin stated during the meeting in Tehran that terrorists in the rebel-held Syrian city of Idlib are preparing provocations involving chemical weapons.

“The remaining groups of extremists [in Syria] are currently concentrated in the de-escalation zone in the province of Idlib. Terrorists are making attempts to disrupt the ceasefire, moreover, they are carrying out and preparing various kinds of provocations, including using chemical weapons,” the Russian President stressed.

He also noted the significant progress in ensuring long-term normalization in Syria.

“I would like to note that the decisions of the two previous summits of the guarantor states of the Astana process are being successfully implemented, and significant progress has been achieved in ensuring long-term normalization in Syria,” Putin said.

Addressing the issue, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said that the civilian population in Idlib should not suffer during the counter-terrorism operations.

“Fighting terrorism in Idlib is an integral part of the mission of establishing peace and stability in Syria, and civilians should not suffer from this fight,” Rouhani said at the summit.

“The only goal in Syria and the region can only be peace, but to achieve sustainable peace, a serious fight against terrorism is inevitable,” the president added.

For his part, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said, in turn, that Ankara is “extremely annoyed” by the United States’ support of Kurdish YPG in Syria.

The situation in Syria’s northwestern Idlib province, the last major terrorist stronghold, is expected to be one of the key topics at the summit. According to the Kremlin, the insurgent hotbed in Idlib destabilizes the situation in Syria and undermines work toward a political settlement of the conflict.

Russian officials, moreover, have repeatedly warned that terrorists were planning a false-flag chemical weapons attack in Idlib with the aim of provoking Western retaliation against the Syrian government.

Source: News Agencies, Edited by website team

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Back in the (Great) Game: The Revenge of Eurasian Land Powers

Back in the (Great) Game: The Revenge of Eurasian Land Powers

EDITOR’S CHOICE | 30.08.2018

Back in the (Great) Game: The Revenge of Eurasian Land Powers

Pepe ESCOBAR

Get ready for a major geopolitical chessboard rumble: from now on, every butterfly fluttering its wings and setting off a tornado directly connects to the battle between Eurasia integration and Western sanctions as foreign policy.

It is the paradigm shift of China’s New Silk Roads versus America’s Our Way or the Highway. We used to be under the illusion that history had ended. How did it come to this?

Hop in for some essential time travel. For centuries the Ancient Silk Road, run by mobile nomads, established the competitiveness standard for land-based trade connectivity; a web of trade routes linking Eurasia to the – dominant – Chinese market.

In the early 15th century, based on the tributary system, China had already established a Maritime Silk Road along the Indian Ocean all the way to the east coast of Africa, led by the legendary Admiral Zheng He. Yet it didn’t take much for imperial Beijing to conclude that China was self-sufficient enough – and that emphasis should be placed on land-based operations.

Deprived of a trade connection via a land corridor between Europe and China, Europeans went all-out for their own maritime silk roads. We are all familiar with the spectacular result: half a millennium of Western dominance.

Until quite recently the latest chapters of this Brave New World were conceptualized by the Mahan, Mackinder and Spykman trio.

The Heartland of the World

Mackinder

Halford Mackinder’s 1904 Heartland Theory – a product of the imperial Russia-Britain New Great Game – codified the supreme Anglo, and then Anglo-American, fear of a new emerging land power able to reconnect Eurasia to the detriment of maritime powers.

Nicholas Spykman’s 1942 Rimland Theory advocated that mobile maritime powers, such as the UK and the U.S., should aim for strategic offshore balancing. The key was to control the maritime edges of Eurasia—that is, Western Europe, the Middle East and East Asia—against any possible Eurasia unifier. When you don’t need to maintain a large Eurasia land-based army, you exercise control by dominating trade routes along the Eurasian periphery.

Even before Mackinder and Spykman, U.S. Navy Admiral Alfred Thayer Mahan had come up in the 1890s with his Influence of Sea Power Upon History – whereby the “island” U.S. should establish itself as a seaworthy giant, modeled on the British empire, to maintain a balance of power in Europe and Asia.

It was all about containing the maritime edges of Eurasia.

In fact, we lived in a mix of Heartland and Rimland. In 1952, then Secretary of State John Foster Dulles adopted the concept of an “island chain” (then expanded to three chains) alongside Japan, Australia and the Philippines to encircle and contain both China and the USSR in the Pacific. (Note the Trump administration’s attempt at revival via the Quad–U.S., Japan, Australia and India).

George Kennan, the architect of containing the USSR, was drunk on Spykman, while, in a parallel track, as late as 1988, President Ronald Reagan’s speechwriters were still drunk on Mackinder. Referring to U.S. competitors as having a shot at dominating the Eurasian landmass, Reagan gave away the plot: “We fought two world wars to prevent this from occurring,” he said.

Eurasia integration and connectivity is taking on many forms. The China-driven New Silk Roads, also known as Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); the Russia-driven Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU); the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB); the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC), and myriad other mechanisms, are now leading us to a whole new game.

How delightful that the very concept of Eurasian “connectivity” actually comes from a 2007 World Bank report about competitiveness in global supply chains.

Also delightful is how the late Zbigniew “Grand Chessboard” Brzezinski was “inspired” by Mackinder after the fall of the USSR – advocating the partition of a then weak Russia into three separate regions; European, Siberian and Far Eastern.

All Nodes Covered

At the height of the unipolar moment, history did seem to have “ended.” Both the western and eastern peripheries of Eurasia were under tight Western control – in Germany and Japan, the two critical nodes in Europe and East Asia. There was also that extra node in the southern periphery of Eurasia, namely the energy-wealthy Middle East.

Washington had encouraged the development of a multilateral European Union that might eventually rival the U.S. in some tech domains, but most of all would enable the U.S. to contain Russia by proxy.

China was only a delocalized, low-cost manufacture base for the expansion of Western capitalism. Japan was not only for all practical purposes still occupied, but also instrumentalized via the Asian Development Bank (ADB), whose message was:

We fund your projects only if you are politically correct.

The primary aim, once again, was to prevent any possible convergence of European and East Asian powers as rivals to the US.

The confluence between communism and the Cold War had been essential to prevent Eurasia integration. Washington configured a sort of benign tributary system – borrowing from imperial China – designed to ensure perpetual unipolarity. It was duly maintained by a formidable military, diplomatic, economic, and covert apparatus, with a star role for the Chalmers Johnson-defined Empire of Bases encircling, containing and dominating Eurasia.

Compare this recent idyllic past with Brzezinski’s – and Henry Kissinger’s – worst nightmare: what could be defined today as the “revenge of history”.

That features the Russia-China strategic partnership, from energy to trade:  interpolating Russia-China geo-economics; the concerted drive to bypass the U.S. dollar; the AIIB and the BRICS’s New Development Bank involved in infrastructure financing; the tech upgrade inbuilt in Made in China 2025; the push towards an alternative banking clearance mechanism (a new SWIFT); massive stockpiling of gold reserves; and the expanded politico-economic role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

As Glenn Diesen formulates in his brilliant book, Russia’s Geo-economic Strategy for a Greater Eurasia, “the foundations of an Eurasian core can create a gravitational pull to draw the rimland towards the centre.”

If the complex, long-term, multi-vector process of Eurasia integration could be resumed by just one formula, it would be something like this: the heartland progressively integrating; the rimlands mired in myriad battlefields and the power of the hegemon irretrievably dissolving. Mahan, Mackinder and Spykman to the rescue? It’s not enough.

Divide and Rule, Revisited

The Oracle still speaks

The same applies for the preeminent post-mod Delphic Oracle, also known as Henry Kissinger, simultaneously adorned by hagiography gold and despised as a war criminal.

Before the Trump inauguration, there was much debate in Washington about how Kissinger might engineer – for Trump – a “pivot to Russia” that he had envisioned 45 years ago. This is how I framed the shadow play at the time.

In the end, it’s always about variations of Divide and Rule – as in splitting Russia from China and vice-versa. In theory, Kissinger advised Trump to “rebalance” towards Russia to oppose the irresistible Chinese ascension. It won’t happen, not only because of the strength of the Russia-China strategic partnership, but because across the Beltway, neocons and humanitarian imperialists ganged up to veto it.

Brzezinski’s perpetual Cold War mindset still lords over a fuzzy mix of the Wolfowitz Doctrine and the Clash of Civilizations. The Russophobic Wolfowitz Doctrine – still fully classified – is code for Russia as the perennial top existential threat to the U.S. The Clash, for its part, codifies another variant of Cold War 2.0: East (as in China) vs. West.

Kissinger is trying some rebalancing/hedging himself, noting that the mistake the West (and NATO) is making “is to think that there is a sort of historic evolution that will march across Eurasia – and not to understand that somewhere on that march it will encounter something very different to a Westphalian entity.”

Both Eurasianist Russia and civilization-state China are already on post-Westphalian mode. The redesign goes deep. It includes a key treaty signed in 2001, only a few weeks before 9/11, stressing that both nations renounce any territorial designs on one another’s territory. This happens to concern, crucially, the Primorsky Territory in the Russian Far East along the Amur River, which was ruled by the Ming and Qing empires.

Moreover, Russia and China commit never to do deals with any third party, or allow a third country to use its territory to harm the other’s sovereignty, security and territorial integrity.

So much for turning Russia against China. Instead, what will develop 24/7 are variations of U.S. military and economic containment against Russia, China and Iran – the key nodes of Eurasia integration – in a geo-strategic spectrum. It will include intersections of heartland and rimland across Syria, Ukraine, Afghanistan and the South China Sea. That will proceed in parallel to the Fed weaponizing the U.S. dollar at will.

Heraclitus Defies Voltaire

Voltaire

Alastair Crooke took a great shot at deconstructing why Western global elites are terrified of the Russian conceptualization of Eurasia. It’s because “they ‘scent’…a stealth reversion to the old, pre-Socratic values: for the Ancients … the very notion of ‘man’, in that way, did not exist. There were only men: Greeks, Romans, barbarians, Syrians, and so on. This stands in obvious opposition to universal, cosmopolitan ‘man’.”

So it’s Heraclitus versus Voltaire – even as “humanism” as we inherited it from the Enlightenment, is de facto over. Whatever is left roaming our wilderness of mirrors depends on the irascible mood swings of the Goddess of the Market. No wonder one of the side effects of progressive Eurasia integration will be not only a death blow to Bretton Woods but also to “democratic” neoliberalism.

What we have now is also a remastered version of sea power versus land powers. Relentless Russophobia is paired with supreme fear of a Russia-Germany rapprochement – as Bismarck wanted, and as Putin and Merkel recently hinted at. The supreme nightmare for the U.S. is in fact a truly Eurasian Beijing-Berlin-Moscow partnership.

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has not even begun; according to the official Beijing timetable, we’re still in the planning phase. Implementation starts next year. The horizon is 2039.

(Wellcome Library, London.) 

This is China playing a long-distance game of go on steroids, incrementally making the best strategic decisions (allowing for margins of error, of course) to render the opponent powerless as he does not even realize he is under attack.

The New Silk Roads were launched by Xi Jinping five years ago, in Astana (the Silk Road Economic Belt) and Jakarta (the Maritime Silk Road). It took Washington almost half a decade to come up with a response. And that amounts to an avalanche of sanctions and tariffs. Not good enough.

Russia for its part was forced to publicly announce a show of mesmerizing weaponry to dissuade the proverbial War Party adventurers probably for good – while heralding Moscow’s role as co-driver of a brand new game.

On sprawling, superimposed levels, the Russia-China partnership is on a roll; recent examples include summits in Singapore, Astana and St. Petersburg; the SCO summit in Qingdao; and the BRICS Plus summit.

Were the European peninsula of Asia to fully integrate before mid-century – via high-speed rail, fiber optics, pipelines – into the heart of massive, sprawling Eurasia, it’s game over. No wonder Exceptionalistan elites are starting to get the feeling of a silk rope drawn ever so softly, squeezing their gentle throats.

consortiumnews.com

Putin and the Syrian priority بوتين والأولوية السورية

Putin and the Syrian priority

أغسطس 24, 2018

Written by Nasser Kandil,

At the end of the third year of the Russian position in the war on Syria, Russia tries to protect and to fortify the meaning and the outcomes of this position resulted from its decision of taking the first strategic initiative in the history even during the days of the Soviet Union to intervene militarily through its armed forces in a war outside its borders and in a traditional American working area, that is bordered by Atlantic Turkey, Israel, and the American presence. Moscow had already put its weight to prevent any American intervention in it two years ago, although the American fleets reached off the Syrian coast, during organized successive, high ceilinged American words about the future of Syria and the future of the Syrian President in particular, whom the Russian forces came to support. Therefore this grants the Russian military initiative a qualitative position in the strategic considerations, at least the readiness to impose a fait accompli by force on the opposite major country represented by America.

Many observers and analysts do not know the magnitude and the kind of considerations and alliances made by the Russian leadership before taking such a decision, and with the progress of this track. It is wrong to think that we are in front of an ordinary Russian file. It is the first strategic file on the table of the Russian President. The achievement of its desired results depends on drawing the position and the role wanted by the Russian President in the international game, in other words; the western and the Arab recognition of the legitimacy of the rule of the Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad and lifting the sanctions on the Syrian country.

The political solution in Syria, the fighting of terrorism, the return of the refugees, and the reconstruction are important vocabularies in the context of the Russian movement for Syria, but they are preceded by other vocabularies that their advanced position in the Russian discourse on Syria needs accurate considerations like how to improve the international and the regional variables resulted from the repercussions of the position in Syria in order to serve the desired end. These variables are related to the Russian concept of settlement and the political solution; entitled; the legitimacy of the Syrian country, its sovereignty, and unity under the leadership of the President Bashar Al-Assad.

Those who think that there are Russian interests in the talks held by the Russian leaders about the international position without Syria or those who think that any search for Syria is governed by an understanding of the Russian interest without a legitimate rule of the President Bashar Al-Assad during these three years are doing wrong. Those who follow-up the international and the regional position about Syria will discover easily a standard to judge the Russian success and failure, entitled the degree of the change of positions towards the rule of the President Bashar Al-Assad and the recognition of being an undeniable stable fact. The pressing problems have been exaggerated in the world due to this denial and obstinacy, where the spread of terrorism and the problem of refugees are just some of its outcomes.

Some people consider the Russian decision of the military position in Syria simple; they do not consider it a strategic shift of high risk, knowing that its risk is the direct and the indirect confrontation with Washington. Those also ignore the worrying tracks of the Russian-Turkish relationship due to this step and later the Russian-Saudi relationship and the Russian-Israeli one. The most notable ignoring is the size of the strategic agreement between Russia and each one of Iran, Syria, and the resistance led by Hezbollah, especially the understanding that in this process no one is left alone until achieving the common victory and in a way that preserves every party that is exposed to pressures and temptations or intimidation that are enough to tempt it to leave the alliance.

In front of these dazzling Russian successes in reaching advanced stages of the planned track, which some of them will be shown through the Russian-Turkish-German- French summit, many people think that the Russian-Iranian relationship is exposed to bargaining, and that Russia is disturbed and confused due to the American sanctions which targeted it when Turkey was against it in Syria. Now it targets Europe and Turkey the two former allies of America in Syria. Everyone who is concerned with the international equations in Moscow confirms that the strategic decision of Washington of getting out of Syria has been resolved, and the alliance which was formed for the war on Syria has been dismantled, while the winning Russian card is the alliance which it led to support Syria. Therefore the smooth investment of the achieved victories does not mean to abandon this card rather to protect it to gain more allies through the power of credibility shown by Russia in the Syrian war and in its alliance with Iran where it showed that it does not leave its allies. The summit which ended a few days ago about the Caspian Sea under Russian-Iranian leadership is still fresh, and the emergence of Turkish and Pakistani changes which were historic dream of Russia are achieved. Thus the Pakistani-Iranian-Turkish line that links Russia with China in the warm waters and which was dreamt by the Caesar Nicholas II two centuries ago became true, after the alliance which was made by Washington between Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, and Baghdad half a century ago was the alliance that confronted the Russian movement during the days of the Soviet Union.

If it is true that the world changes from Syria as the Russian President Vladimir Putin said few years ago, then it is true too that Russia with Putin decided to play the leading role in changing the world from the Syrian gate, and now it is reaping the fruits of its sucess.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

 

بوتين والأولوية السورية

أغسطس 18, 2018

ناصر قنديل

– خلال ثلاث سنوات تقارب من نهايتها على التموضع الروسي في الحرب على سورية، تعيش روسيا مكانة خاصة لحماية وتحصين معاني ونتائج هذا التموضع الناتج عن اتخاذ روسيا قرار المبادرة الاستراتيجية الأولى من نوعها في تاريخها، بما في ذلك أيام الاتحاد السوفياتي، بالتدخل عسكرياً بقواتها المسلحة في حرب خارج حدودها، وفي منطقة عمل أميركية تقليدية، تحدّها تركيا الأطلسية من جهة و«إسرائيل» من جهة ثانية، والوجود الأميركي من جهة ثالثة، وقد سبق لموسكو أن رمت بثقلها لمنع تدخل عسكري أميركي فيها قبل عامين، رغم أن الأساطيل الأميركية وصلت إلى قبالة السواحل السورية. وفي ظل كلام أميركي منتظم ومتتابع وعالي السقوف حول مستقبل الوضع في سورية وخصوصاً مستقبل الرئيس السوري، الذي جاءت روسيا بقواتها لدعمه، ما يمنح المبادرة الروسية العسكرية مكانة نوعية في الحسابات الاستراتيجية ليس أقلها الجهوزية لفرض أمر واقع بالقوة على الدولة العظمى المقابلة التي تمثلها أميركا.

– يغيب عن بال الكثير من المتابعين والمحللين التخيل لحجم ونوع الحسابات والتحالفات التي أقامتها القيادة الروسية قبل اتخاذ هذا القرار، ومثلها التي تتخذها بالتتابع مع مساره وتقدم هذا المسار. فيخطئ من يظن أننا أمام مجرد ملف من ملفات الحركة الروسية، بقدر ما نحن أمام الملف الاستراتيجي الأول على طاولة الرئيس الروسي، بحيث يتوقّف على ضمان بلوغه نهاياته المنشودة، رسم المكانة والدور اللذين أرداهما الرئيس الروسي لبلاده في اللعبة الدولية، وحسابات القوة فيها، والنهاية المنشودة هي استرداد الاعتراف الغربي والعربي بشرعية حكم الرئيس السوري بشار الأسد، وإزالة العقوبات التي فرضت على الدولة السورية.

– مفردات من نوع الحل السياسي في سورية ومكافحة الإرهاب وعودة النازحين وإعادة الإعمار، تحتلّ مكانتها في سياق الحركة الروسية لأعمية كل منها بذاتها في ترجمة المسار الذي ترغبه روسيا لسورية، لكنها قبل ذلك مفردات يخضع استحضارها ومنح كل منها مكانة متقدمة في الخطاب الروسي حول سورية تعبيراً عن حسابات دقيقة لكيفية تثمير المتغيرات الدولية والإقليمية الناجمة في أغلبها عن تداعيات الوضع السورية وتوظيفها في خدمة النهاية المنشودة، المتصلة بالمفهوم الروسي للتسوية والحل السياسي، وعنوانهما شرعية الدولة السورية وسيادتها ووحدتها برئاسة الرئيس بشار الأسد.

– خلال سنوات ثلاث يخطئ من يظن أن ثمة مصالح روسية تحضر على طاولة المباحثات التي يجريها القادة الروس حول الوضع الدولي لا تشكل سورية مفتاحها. ويخطئ من يظن أن أي بحث عن سورية يحكمه فهم للمصلحة الروسية ليس عنوانه شرعية حكم الرئيس بشار الأسد، ومَن يتابع المسارات التي تسلكها المواقف الدولية والإقليمية حول سورية، سيكتشف بسهولة مقياساً للحكم على النجاح والفشل الروسيين، عنوانه درجة تغيّر المواقف من هذه المفردة، حكم الرئيس بشار الأسد، والتسليم بكونه حقيقة لا تفيد المكابرة في إنكارها، ولا مصلحة بالممانعة بوجهها، وقد تفاقمت المشكلات التي تضغط على العالم كله بسبب ما مضى من هذه المكابرة وهذا الإنكار، ليس تفشي الإرهاب ومشكلة النازحين إلا بعضاً من مفرداتها.

– يتعاطى البعض بخفة مع هيكلية القرار الروسي بالتموضع العسكري الروسي في سورية، ولا ينظر إليها كنقلة استراتيجية على درجة عالية من الخطورة، والمخاطرة بمواجهة مباشرة أو غير مباشرة مع واشنطن، ويتجاهل هؤلاء المسارات المتعرّجة المقلقة للعلاقة الروسية التركية بحاصل هذه الخطوة، ولاحقاً العلاقة الروسية السعودية، والعلاقة الروسية الإسرائيلية، ودائماً العلاقات الروسية بكل من واشنطن والعواصم الأوروبية. والتجاهل الأهم هو حجم التوافق الاستراتيجي الذي أبرمته روسيا مع إيران وسورية والمقاومة التي يقودها حزب الله لمواجهة كل هذه الفرضيات، وعلى رأسها التفاهم على أن أحداً لن يترك أحداً في هذه المسيرة حتى يتحقق النصر المشترك الجامع ويحفظ الجميع الجميع في المنعطفات التي سيتعرّض كل فريق لضغوط وإغراءات كافية لإغرائه بالخروج من الحلف أو ترهيبه من مخاطر الاستمرار فيه.

– أمام النجاحات الروسية الباهرة في بلوغ مراحل متقدّمة من المسار المرسوم، والتي يطل قريباً بعض جديد من ملامحها، مع القمة الروسية التركية الألمانية الفرنسية، يتوهّم كثيرون أن العلاقة الروسية الإيرانية معروضة على الطاولة للمساومة، ويتوهّم كثيرون أن روسيا مضطربة وقلقة وتريد النجاة برأسها أمام العقوبات الأميركية التي استهدفت روسيا يوم كانت تركيا رأس الحربة بوجهها في سورية، وهي اليوم تستهدف أوروبا وتركيا حليفتي أميركا السابقتين في سورية. وكل مَن هو معنيّ في موسكو بالمعادلات الدولية يؤكد أن قرار واشنطن الإستراتيجي بالخروج من سورية قد حُسِم، وأن الحلف الذي تشكل للحرب على سورية قد تفكك، وأن الورقة الروسية الرابحة هي أن الحلف الذي قادته لنصرة سورية غير قابل للتفكك، وأن المضي قدماً بسلاسة للاستثمار على نتائج الانتصارات المحققة، لا يعني التفريط بهذه الورقة الرابحة، بل صيانتها لكسب المزيد من الحلفاء بقوة الصدقية التي أظهرتها روسيا في الحرب السورية وتالياً في حلفها مع إيران أنها لا تترك حلفاءها ولا تبيع ولا تشتري على ظهورهم. والقمة التي انتهت قبل أيام حول بحر قزوين بقيادة روسية إيرانية لا تزال طازجة، وظهور التغييرات التركية والباكستانية، التي كانت حلماً تاريخياً لروسيا تكتمل، ليصير القوس الباكستاني الإيراني التركي لربط روسيا بالصين في المياه الدافئة، والذي حلم به القيصر نيقولاي الثاني قبل قرنين تقريباً، حقيقة، بعدما كان الحلف الذي أقامته واشنطن بين إيران وباكستان وتركيا وبغداد قبل نصف قرن أهم جدار لمواجهة الحركة الروسية أيام الاتحاد السوفياتي.

– إذا كان صحيحاً أن العالم يتغير من سورية، كما قال الرئيس الروسي فلاديمير بوتين قبل سنوات، فإن الصحيح أيضاً أن روسيا بوتين قررت لعب الدور القيادي في تغيير العالم من البوابة السورية… وهي تنجح.

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Excellence in the strategic time and the glowing spirit التفوق بالزمن الاستراتيجي وتوهُّج الروح

Excellence in the strategic time and the glowing spirit

أغسطس 19, 2018

Written by Nasser Kandil,

There is an opportunity for reading, evaluating, and taking lessons from the day of victory, with which one of the rounds of the open historic confrontation between the resistance and the occupation entity ended, especially after the results which became resolved during the largest wars of the century which took place in Syria and where the resistance was in its heart as a goal, role, and fate. It is one of the rounds of confrontation which has not ended on August 14th 2006, but it can be said that the war on Syria was its severest successive round. That war tried to absorb the lessons of the war of July after five years of its end with a historic defeat of the occupation entity. Firstly through the preparation for a war that will last for years where the occupation entity will not be in the heart of attrition. Secondly, through the confrontation in the field between the resistance and an army that is comparable to the occupation army but exceeds the ability of the resistance to bear blood, namely Al-Qaeda organization in all its branches. Thirdly, through the mobilization of the western countries in this war and linking it with international strategic equations in favor of the western hegemony project to restore it after its recent failed wars and to make Syria; the castle on which the resistance is based” its target. Fourthly, through the distribution of Syria’s shares on the regional participants as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, and the occupation entity which is the first winner whether the war will lead to a rule the is subject to the West and its groups in Syria or towards the division and the birth of a group of subordinate entities or at least disputing ones.

The outcome of the war on Syria as illustrated by the occupation entity, its leaders, and intellectuals says something that is similar to what they said after the war of July” the defeat and the failure” despite all the attempts of absorbing this failure and that defeat. This is similar to the bets accompanied the war of July 2006 about the Lebanese army and the resolution 1701 and the illusions of deploying UN observers on the Lebanese-Syrian borders. The occupation entity will not be able to avoid the fact that it received a strategic defeat in Syria after it tried to deny it in the war of July 2006. Therefore it tried to avoid the formation of commission of inquiry as Winograd, because the result will be disastrous if it confessed that it got a resounding defeat.

As an outcome, the bets of the occupation entity were unable to weaken the resistance ranks in its main fronts in the southern of Lebanon, or exhausting the resistance in Syria, or building a security belt on the Golan borders, or overthrowing Syria, dividing it distributing it, or turning it into a swamp of sectarian strife which anticipated by Israel. Now the resistance and Syria reaped the fruits of the major transformations which accompanied the victory, through an alliance with Russia which was not exist before the Syrian war and international and regional balances that their implications become clear gradually along with new Lebanese equations that will not be affected by the maneuvers of forming a new government after it was resolved by the elections of the President of the Republic and the parliamentary elections.

The two facts which were illustrated by the experience of the occupation entity with the resistance in terms of the readiness for a next war are shown in the fundamental difference between the resistance and the entity; First, the occupying entity is preparing itself for the next war inspired by the last war, but it was surprised that the resistance which it confronts was not that one which it faced in that war. While the resistance was preparing for the next war putting in mind that the occupation will be at its best condition but it discovered that it is below its expectations. This is the concept of the excellence in strategic time. Second, the occupation entity in every defeat loses some of its spirit while the resistance gains more trust and power. When the successive round takes place between two varying parties which become more differentiate during the confrontation and after it, it is proven that what is lost is not resorted and what is gained becomes more glowing in the following war, this is the concept of the excellence in the glowing spirit.

Any strategic mind which wants to get lessons and to draw a diagram for the confrontation that lasted over more than three decades between the resistance and the occupation entity and in which the resources, conditions, arenas, tools and the international, regional, and local atmospheres changed with the remaining of one constant “the ability of the resistance to achieve one victory after another” will say to the occupation leaders that “You try in vain, you are confronting people that are willing to wage a war of the next century with the mind and the tools of the next century, while you are thinking and preparing for the war of the past century, you have a soul that vanishes from one round to another, while on the opposite bank you are facing a soul that becomes more glowing from one round to another, so try to find exits, no matter how painful and costly they will, because they will be less painful and costly than the consequences of the next war.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

التفوق بالزمن الاستراتيجي وتوهُّج الروح

أغسطس 15, 2018

ناصر قنديل

– في يوم النصر الذي انتهت معه جولة من جولات المواجهة التاريخية المفتوحة بين المقاومة وكيان الاحتلال فرصة للقراءة والتقييم وتسجيل العبر، خصوصاً مع النتائج التي تبدو محسومة لحاصل أضخم حروب القرن التي دارت في سورية وعليها وحولها، وكانت المقاومة في قلبها، كهدف ودور ومصير، ولا بدّ أن تُعتبر واحدة من جولات هذه المواجهة التي لم تنته في 14 آب 2006. ويصحّ معها القول إن حرب سورية كانت جولتها اللاحقة الأشد ضراوة، والتي حاولت استيعاب دروس حرب تموز بعد خمس سنوات من توقفها بهزيمة تاريخية لكيان الاحتلال، وكان أول الاستيعاب هو الاستعداد لحرب تدوم لسنوات دون أن يكون كيان الاحتلال في قلب الاستنزاف. وثاني الاستيعاب هو أن يتقابل مع المقاومة في الميدان جيش رديف لجيش الاحتلال يضاهي المقاومة في القدرة على تحمّل بذل الدماء هو تنظيم القاعدة بكل متفرّعاته. وثالث الاستيعاب هو حشد دول الغرب كله في هذه الحرب وربطها بتكريس معادلات دولية استراتيجية لحساب مشروع الهيمنة الغربية وترميمه بعد حروبه الفاشلة التي سبقت، وجعل الهدف سورية أي القلعة التي تستند إليها المقاومة والظهر الذي يسندها، ورابع الاستيعاب هو توزيع حصص الكعكة السورية على المشاركين الإقليميين من السعودية إلى تركيا وقطر وكيان الاحتلال الرابح الأول سواء سارت الحرب نحو بناء حكم تابع للغرب وجماعاته في سورية أو نحو التقسيم وولادة مجموعة كيانات تابعة أو على الأقل متناحرة.

– الحصيلة التي تنتهي إليها الحرب على سورية تقول بلسان كيان الاحتلال وقادته ومفكرية شيئاً يشبه ما قالوه بعد حرب تموز، وعنوانه الإخفاق والفشل. رغم كل محاولات احتواء هذا الإخفاق وتجميل ذاك الفشل، بالتأقلم مع جوانب من نصر سورية ومحاولة تعديل جوانب أخرى فيها، ويبدو ذلك كله عبثاً من نوع الرهانات التي رافقت نهاية حرب تموز 2006 حول الجيش اللبناني والقرار 1701، وأوهام نشر المراقبين الأمميين على الحدود اللبنانية السورية، ولن يكون بيد كيان الاحتلال تفادي حقيقة أنه تلقى في سورية هزيمته الاستراتيجية التي حاول إنكار وقوعها في حرب تموز 2006، ولذلك يتفادى تشكيل لجنة تحقيق من نوع لجنة فينوغراد، لأن النتيجة ستكون كارثية إذا اعترف بأن الحرب حربه وأنه خسرها بصورة مدوية.

– في الحصيلة خابت رهانات كيان الاحتلال على ضعضعة صفوف المقاومة في جبهتها الرئيسية عبر جنوب لبنان، وخاب رهان استنزاف المقاومة في سورية، كما خاب رهان بناء حزام أمني على حدود الجولان، ورهان إسقاط سورية كقلعة للمقاومة أو تقسيمها وتقاسمها، أو تحويلها مستنقعاً للفتنة المذهبية التي حلمت بها «إسرائيل» ذات يوم، وها هي المقاومة المنتصرة مع سورية وفيها، تقطف ثمار التحولات الكبرى التي رافقت تبلور ملامح النصر، بحلف مع روسيا لم يكن موجوداً قبل الحرب السورية، وتوازنات إقليمية ودولية تتبلور تداعياتها بصورة تدريجية، ومعها معادلات لبنانية جديدة لن تسقطها مناورات تشكيل الحكومة الجديدة، بعدما حسمتها انتخابات رئيس الجمهورية والانتخابات النيابية.

– الحقيقتان اللتان تقولهما تجربة كيان الاحتلال مع المقاومة، لجهة مفهوم الاستعداد للحرب المقبلة، هما أن الفارق الجوهري بين المقاومة والكيان يقوم أولاً بكون الكيان المحتل يستعدّ للحرب المقبلة من وحي ما كانت عليه الحرب التي انقضت، وإذ به يفاجئ بأن المقاومة التي يواجهها ليست هي تلك التي كانت في تلك الحرب التي اتخذها مدرسة للاستعداد، بينما المقاومة تتسعد للحرب المقبلة بمقياس ما سيكون عليه الاحتلال بأفضل الفرضيات لصالحه لو أتم الاستعداد فتكتشف أنه دون مستوى ما أعدّت للحرب. وهذا هو مفهوم التفوق بالزمن الاستراتيجي، وثانياً بكون كيان الاحتلال في كل هزيمة يفقد بعضاً من روحه، بينما تكتسب المقاومة المزيد من الثقة والقوة لروحها، وتأتي الجولة اللاحقة بروحين متفاوتتين وتزدادان تفاوتاً في قلب المواجهة وبعدها، ويثبت أن ما تفقده الروح لا يستردّ وأن ما تكتسبه الروح المقابلة يتصاعد قيمة وتوهجاً في الحرب التي تلي، وهذا هو مفهوم التفوق بتوهّج الروح.

– إن أي عقل استراتيجي يريد تسجيل العبر ورسم الخط البياني لمحطات المواجهة الممتدة خلال أكثر من ثلاثة عقود بين المقاومة وكيان الاحتلال، تغيّر فيها كل شيء من الموارد والظروف وساحات المواجهة وأدوات الحرب والمناخات الدولية والإقليمية والمحلية، وبقي فيها ثابت وحيد، هو قدرة هذه المقاومة على الخروج من نصر إلى آخر، سيقول لقادة الاحتلال عبثاً تحاولون فأنتم تواجهون قوماً يستعدون لحرب قرن مقبل بعقل القرن المقبل وأدوات القرن المقبل، بينما أنتم تفكرون وتعدّون وتستعدون لحرب القرن الذي مضى، وأنتم تملكون روحاً تتلاشى من جولة إلى جولة ومن تقابلونهم يملكون روحاً تزداد توهجاً من جولة إلى أخرى، فتدبّروا لأنفسكم مخارج أمان غير الحرب مهما بدت مؤلمة ومكلفة فهي أقل إيلاماً وكلفة مما ستجلبه الحرب المقبلة.

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All hands on deck: the Caspian sails towards Eurasia integration

The Saker

All hands on deck: the Caspian sails towards Eurasia integration

August 14, 2018

by Pepe Escobar (cross-posted with the Asia Times by special agreement with the author)

The five states surrounding the sea – Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan – have reached difficult compromises on sovereign and exclusive rights as well as freedom of navigation

The long-awaited deal on the legal status of the Caspian Sea signed on Sunday in the Kazakh port of Aktau is a defining moment in the ongoing, massive drive towards Eurasia integration.

Up to the early 19th century, the quintessentially Eurasian body of water – a connectivity corridor between Asia and Europe over a wealth of oil and gas – was exclusive Persian property. Imperial Russia then took over the northern margin. After the break up of the USSR, the Caspian ended up being shared by five states; Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.

Very complex negotiations went on for almost two decades. Was the Caspian a sea or a lake? Should it be divided between the five states into separate, sovereign tracts or developed as a sort of condominium?

Slowly but surely, the five states reached difficult compromises on sovereign and exclusive rights; freedom of navigation; “freedom of access of all the vessels from the Caspian Sea to the world’s oceans and back” – in the words of a Kazakh diplomat; pipeline installation; and crucially, on a military level, the certitude that only armed forces from the five littoral states should be allowed in Caspian waters.

No wonder then that President Putin, in Aktau, described the deal in no uncertain terms as having “epoch-making significance.”

A sea or a lake?

So is the Caspian now a sea or a lake? It’s complicated; the convention signed in Aktau defines it as a sea, but subject to a “special legal status.”

This means the Caspian is regarded as open water, for common use – but the seabed and subsoil are divided. Still a work in progress, the devil is in the details in sorting out how the seabed is divided.

According to the draft text, published two months ago by Russia’s Kommersant, “the delimitation of the floor and mineral resources of the Caspian Sea by sector will be carried out by agreement between the neighboring and facing states taking into account generally recognized principles and legal norms.” Stanislav Pritchin, director of the Center for Central Asia and Caucasus Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, described this as the best possible compromise, for now.

The maritime boundaries of each of the five states are already set; 15 nautical miles of sovereign waters, plus a further 10 miles (16 km) for fishing. Beyond that, it’s open water.

In Aktau, Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev frankly admitted that even to reach this basic consensus was a difficult process, and the key issue of how to share the Caspian’s underground energy wealth remains far from solved.

Two offshore oil rigs on the Caspian sea. Photo: iStock

Kazakh Foreign Minister Kairat Abdrakhmanov, quoting from the final text, emphasized that, “the methodology for establishing state base lines shall be determined in a separate agreement among all the parties according to this convention on the legal status of the Caspian Sea. This is a key phrase, especially important for our Iranian partners.”

The reference to Iran matters because under the deal Tehran ended up with the smallest share of the Caspian seabed. Diplomats confirmed to Asia Times that up to the last minute President Rouhani’s team was not totally satisfied with the final terms.

That was reflected in Rouhani’s comment that the convention was “a major document” even as it did not solve for good the extremely complex dossier.

What Rouhani did emphasize was how “gratifying” was the fact his Caspian partners privilege “multilateralism and oppose unilateral actions that are developing in some countries.” That was not only a direct reference to the Caspian partners supporting the JCPOA, or Iran nuclear deal, but also a veiled reference to President Trump’s threat that “anyone doing business with Iran will not be doing business with the United States.”

Rouhani and Nazarbayev in fact held a separate meeting dedicated to increased economic cooperation, including the mutual drive to use their national currencies on trade, bypassing the US dollar.


These waters are off-limits to NATO

Iran-Kazakhstan economic cooperation is bound to follow Iran-Russia parameters. Putin and Rouhani, who enjoy a warm, close personal relationship, spent quite some time in Aktau discussing issues far beyond the Caspian, such as Syria, Gazprom investment in Iranian gas fields, and how to deal with Washington’s sanctions offensive.

Both were adamant in their praise of a key stipulation of the deal; there will be no NATO roaming the Caspian. In the words of Rouhani, “the Caspian Sea only belongs to the Caspian states.” Putin for his part confirmed Russia plans to build a new deepwater port in the Caspian by 2025.

A panoramic view of Baku, Azerbaijan from the Martyrs Lane viewpoint, near the center of Baku. Photo: iStock

In the turbulent geoeconomic realm that I defined years ago as “Pipelineistan,” the deal will allow a lot of leeway; from now on, pipelines to be laid offshore require consent only from neighboring states, rather than from all “Caspian Five”.

A major consequence is that Turkmenistan may finally be able to lay down its own 300 km-long trans-Caspian underground pipeline to Azerbaijan – a project that was never exactly encouraged by Russia. This pipeline will allow Turkmenistan to diversify from its massive exports to China by tapping the European market via Baku, in direct competition with Gazprom.

Ashgabat may finally be on its way towards a win-win; not only Baku could use more gas imports to compensate for production shortfalls, but Moscow seems inclined to restart imports of Turkmen gas.

From now on, the game to watch in the Caspian is how deeper energy/economic cooperation may go, in the spirit of true Eurasia integration, even with China not directly involved in the affairs of the sea. Chinese companies though are heavily invested in the Kazakhstan oil business and are major importers of Turkmenistan gas.

Historically, Persia always maintained a demographic, cultural and linguistic pull across most of Central Asia. Persia remains one of its organizing principles; Iran is a Central Asian as much as a Southwest Asian power.

This should be contrasted with Caspian nations still heavily influenced by Soviet atheism and Turkish shamanism. A particularly interesting case to watch will be Azerbaijan – which is part of the Western sphere of influence via pipelines such as the BTC (Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan), which crosses Georgia all the way to the Turkish Eastern Mediterranean.

This was The Art of the Deal – Central Asian-style. What’s already established is that the Caspian 2.0 is a major multilateral win for Eurasia integration.

The Essential Saker II
The Essential Saker II: Civilizational Choices and Geopolitics / The Russian challenge to the hegemony of the AngloZionist Empire
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The Essential Saker: from the trenches of the emerging multipolar world

انقلاب جديد في تركيا أم صعود سلطاني إلى الهاوية…!

أغسطس 14, 2018

محمد صادق الحسيني

مرة أخرى تتسارع الخطى في العالم والإقليم نحو مزيد من التحوّل من الغرب الى الشرق…!

وكلما حاول ترامب وقف هذا التحول عبر خطوات تضييقية وحصارية على خصومه وصولاً الى حلفائه، ساهم عملياً في عزلة إمبراطوريته الاستكبارية والتعجيل في انتشار مرض الشيخوخة المبكر في جسمها المترهل أصلاً بسبب ضربات محور المقاومة الكاسرة للتوازنات التقليدية في العلاقات الدولية…!

وها هو آخر ضحايا تهور الاحادية الأميركية أردوغان يترنح تحت الضربات الأنانية لسيده ما قد يضطره للدخول في مجازفات تجعل بلاده على حافة خط الزلازل وربما الهاوية…!

يقول أردوغان: نقول للبلد الذي يضحّي بعلاقاته مع شريكه الاستراتيجي من أجل المنظمات الإرهابية «مع السلامة»..!

ويضيف: سنردّ على الذين يشنون حرباً تجارية علينا بعقد تحالفات جديدة والتوجه إلى أسواق جديدة..!

هنا يظهر السلطان التركي يضيق ذرعاً بسيده الأميركي، الى الدرجة التي قد تدفع به للخروج من حظيرته التاريخية…!

ولكن مهلاً…!

فثمة من يقول إن ما يجري في انقرة واسطنبول ليس أزمة اقتصادية، بل إنه انقلاب اقتصادي يتبع الانقلاب العسكري الذي فاجأ العالم قبل عامين تموز 2016 و سيؤدي إلى إعلان حالة الطوارئ الاقتصادية مثلما تم إعلانها أمنياً مدة عامين..!

وهذ يعني أن تركيا ستشهد عمليات اعتقالات وإقالات واسعة في أوساط كبار قادة الاقتصاد والمال والأعمال. وبالتالي سيقود هذا الأمر إلى تغيير أصحاب رؤوس الأموال وإطاحة الطبقة المالكة للمال والإنتاج والتمويل التي لم تبايع السلطان أو تظهر له العداء لتتحول أملاكها وشركاتها إلى الطبقة الموالية تماما ً كما حدث في الانقلاب الإعلامي الذي قاده السلطان وأدّى إلى انتقال ملكية جميع المؤسسات الإعلامية من دون استثناء للطبقة الموالية التي بايعت السلطان…!

الآن بدأ الانقلاب الاقتصادي بتضخيم مفتعل لليرة يتبعه تضخّم كبير في العملة يؤدّي إلى عجز سيولة في الشركات التي ستسعى لتمويل ديونها عبر تحويل الأصول المالية إلى الدولار، لكنها ستفشل في سد العجز النقدي لذلك ستلجأ للاقتراض من المصارف من جديد. طبعاً المصارف ستسارع للحجز على أصول الشركات العقارية والسندات فتصاب المصارف هذه المرة بعجز كبير في السيولة النقدية فتلجأ المصارف إلى البنك المركزي طلباً للمساعدة في فك العقدة النقدية. طبعاً المركزي سيرحب بتقديم الدعم ليرفع من حالة العجز النقدي لدى المصارف الخاصة. وهنا تتدخل مؤسسة النقد والرقابة المصرفية الحكومية لتحجز على المصارف التي تفشل في إدارة العجز فيتم وضع اليد عليها وتعيين وصي من طرف الحكومة عليها. وهذا يعني أن الوصي سيقوم على الفور ببيع الشركات وأصول الشركات وممتلكاتها المرهونة للمصارف..! هنا يأتي دور السلطان وحاشيته في شراء كل ما تم حجزه بأبخس وأرخص الأثمان وبأسعار سرّية لا يمكن لأي جهة أو طرف ثالث معرفتها والتدخل بها…!

هل هذا هو سيناريو الانقلاب الاقتصادي الذي وضعه السلطان «لتشليح» عمالقة رأس المال والاقتصاد وكبريات المصارف الخاصة العملاقة وتحويلها جميعاً إلى ملكيته الشخصية أو إلى ملكية حاشيته والموالين له…!؟

ثمة مَن يسأل في اسطنبول وأنقرة

ملاحظة: قيمة الشركات الكبرى في بورصة إسطنبول 780 مليار ليرة تركي كانت تعادل 195 مليار دولار. وبعد افتعال حالة الانهيار في سعر الليرة انخفضت قيمة الشركات إلى 120 مليار دولار وكل يوم تنخفض قيمة الشركات بمعدل مليار دولار، سيستمر السلطان في خفض قيمة الليرة إلى أن تتحول القيمة الشرائية للشركات التركية في البورصة إلى الحضيض تماماً، حينها سيتم الحجز والبيع…!

آخرون يقولون ما يشبه هذا، ولكنهم يعتقدون انه في اطار مشروع ترامب العالمي للتخلص من دورة المضاربات العالمية التي لا تعتمد الرأسمال الإنتاجي، وبالمناسبة الاقتصاد التركي التجاري والصناعي يعتمد على هذا النوع من المضاربات..!

فيقولون بما ان ترامب يحارب رأس المال اليهودي المضارب والعولمة…. ويعمل على العودة الى إحياء الرأسمالية المنتجة، أي الصناعية وليس رأسمالية المضاربات، ولما كانت 70 من رؤوس الأموال المتداولة في بورصة اسطنبول هي رؤوس أموال يهودية الى جانب 63 رؤوس الأموال في الصناعة التركية هي يهودية مضاربة ايضاً.

بمعنى ان الخسائر الرئيسية التي ستنجم عن أي أزمة مالية واقتصادية في تركيا سيتحملها رأس المال المشار إليه أعلاه. ولما كان أردوغان شخصياً قادر على شراء كل هذه الأصول من خلال أموال النفط العراقي الذي تمت سرقته مع البرزاني حصة أردوغان 120 مليار دولار خلال السنوات العشر الماضية، بالإضافة الى نفط داعش المسروق من قبل أردوغان حوالي 60 مليار دولار …!

فعليه تتكامل هنا رؤيتا ترامب مع أردوغان في خضم حفلة حروب اقتصادية مفتوحة افتتحها ترامب لغاية في نفس «أميركا أولا «ً التي يسعى اليها ملك الاستكبار العالمي منذ أن تولى السلطة في واشنطن..!

أياً تكن الرواية الحقيقية لما يحصل بين واشنطن وانقرة، فإن على أردوغان ان يوقف حفلة التذاكي والمخاتلة والتذبذب في المواقف وليعلم جيداً بأن مصير حكومته ودولته ومجتمعه اليوم رهن بانتخابه الخيار الصحيح الوحيد، ألا وهو التوجه الجدي والمستقيم شرقاً…

حيث إلى هناك ينتقل مركز العالم…!

إذا كان ثمة من دور لتركيا يبحث عنه فهو في انتقالها المنظم والواعي لمحور الشرق المناهض للأحادية الأميركية..

وإذا كان ثمة من هوية يبحث عنها بعد تخبّط يكاد يقترب من المئة عام فهو أيضاً في انتمائه الجدي والحقيقي للشرق الصاعد..

وإذا كان ثمة من مشروع يفكر فيه لنفسه ولبلاده، فلن ينمو ويتقدم ويتبلور إلا بأحضان الشرق وكتلة الأوراسيا والتكامل مع دولها التي تسارع حالياً لتشكيل محور شانغهاي للأمن والتعاون مقابل محور واشنطن للشر والتصادم..!

وقبل كل هذا وبعده الاعتراف بخطئه القاتل في سورية، وسحب جيشه المحتل من المستنقع السوري قبل أن تحل لعنة الله على الظالم…!

إنها السنن الكونية التي لا مهرب منها.

بعدنا طيّبين، قولوا الله…

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