The US-Assisted Evacuation of IS Militants from Syria – a Rerun of Operation ODESSA

The US-Assisted Evacuation of IS Militants from Syria – a Rerun of Operation ODESSA

DMITRY MININ | 15.01.2018 | WORLD / MIDDLE EAST

The US-Assisted Evacuation of IS Militants from Syria – a Rerun of Operation ODESSA

Surprisingly, the fate of the most zealous members of some crippled Islamic State (IS) units (an organization that is banned in Russia) is reminiscent of what happened at the end of World War II. Back then it was Nazi fugitives whom someone was helping to hide so they could be put to use sometime in the future, and today it’s IS loyalists.

No one can say where the IS bigwigs and central staffers have gone. The most experienced officers within this terrorist organization, at times entire detachments, are suddenly disappearing from Syria and Iraq, as if they’re just melting into the desert sand. Then, as if by magic, they reemerge in Libya, Egypt, Sudan, or Afghanistan, near the borders of Central Asia or Russia, or in the Chinese region of Xinjiang. Obviously, smoothly operating channels exist that allow them to move them from place to place, which is something that could only be set up by a powerful state. Given the fact that IS terrorists who are being shifted to various parts of the world are mostly coming out of the regions in eastern Syria under American control, presumably that state must be the US. And this would not be unprecedented in the history of the United States.

Operation ODESSA (Organisation der Ehemaligen SS-Angehörigen, or Organization of Former SS Members), which was designed to transport SS officers out of war-torn Germany into the Middle East, as well as South and North America, used to be quite a hot topic, back in its day. The famous Frederick Forsyth novel The Odessa File, and the 1974 film of the same name, really stirred the public’s imagination about this historical event. The Allies called those evacuation channels “ratlines,” but the SS officers themselves had a more romantic way of referring to their escape routes, for example, Übersee Süd (“Sailing Toward the Southern Seas”).

Many of the former SS officers were subsequently put to good use on the front lines of the Cold War. We’re seeing something similar happening with IS combatants.

Interestingly enough, the efforts to bring in German Nazis and settle them in the US began without the knowledge of President FDR. Those were put in motion by the US Joint Chiefs of Staff (chairman – Omar Bradley), which launched Operation Paperclip with a hand from the intelligence agencies. The establishment of the Gehlen Organization, which recruited Nazi spies into what would later become the Federal Intelligence Agency of the Federal Republic of Germany, was yet another scheme. Soldiers are, as a rule, far more pragmatic than ideological. They do not see pitting one enemy against another as an immoral act, but rather as an example of great strategic acumen. It has been calculated that a total of approximately 30,000 people passed through the “ratlines,” many of whom ended up in the US.

West German intelligence chief Reinhard Gehlen. He enjoyed a long, happy life

Back in 2006, the US Justice Department drafted an in-depth 600-page report on this matter. Although not publicly released, in 2010 it was obtained by the New York Times, which posted it on its website. After reviewing the report, the newspaper concluded that after WWII, US intelligence chiefs created a “safe haven” in the United States for many Nazi war criminals and their cohorts.

The IS spy chief, Abu Omar al-Shishani (Tarkhan Batirashvili). Was he killed or did he get out through a “ratline”?

Adolf Eichmann – the most famous “Odessan.” He was captured and executed in Israel.

Abū Bakr al-Baghdadi – the leader of IS. Where is he?

The Russian Ministry of Defense has repeatedly issued statements about the many oddities in the way the American advisers and their allies from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have been battling IS on the eastern shore of the Euphrates. For example: the use of helicopters to pull IS commanders out of besieged areas, the unexpected release of major IS detachments from cities, and the redirection of surrendered combatants into the New Syrian Army. And here’s the big question – for the majority of the IS loyalists who have poured into this new army from the battle zones, it’s right here that their trail goes cold.

The former spokesman and third-in-command of the SDF before fleeing to Turkey in late 2017, Talal Silo, presents some remarkable evidence of the dealings between representatives of the Pentagon and IS commanders.

Talal Silo

In an interview with the Turkish Anadolu news service, he specifically pointed to some cases in which IS terrorists were relocated at the direction of agents representing US military commanders, whom he named as General Raymond Thomas, the commander of US Special Operations Command; General Joseph Votel, commander of USCENTCOM; and General Stephen Townsend, the head of Operation Inherent Resolve. And there on the scene, the biggest generator of ideas is Special Presidential Envoy Brett McGurk.

Brett McGurk, center, inspecting the “allies”

Talal Silo cites, for example, episodes in which – at the Americans’ insistence – 2,000 IS fighters were permitted safe passage out of Manbij, and 500 – out of Tabqa. And the most remarkable event was the clever bit of theater performed in Raqqa, quite in the spirit of the US Army’s field manual on special operations. Talal Silo claims that the Americans were calculating that Assad’s forces would reach Deir ez-Zor in six weeks. But when it turned out that the government troops were moving more quickly, US officials demanded that the SDF release terrorists from Raqqa and send them toward Abu Kamal in order to intercept the government forces. A deal was negotiated allowing an imposing group of 3,500 militants to leave the city with all they needed, including weapons. The public statement that was released claimed that only civilians were let out of the city, and that 275 IS loyalists supposedly “turned themselves in.” To prove the existence of these 275 individuals, a group of people were brought in from the Ain Issa camp to play the part of militants. Yet journalists were forbidden to travel to Raqqa, citing the risk of skirmishes with IS terrorists. But in fact not a single bullet was ever fired. Later it was revealed that some of those terrorists headed for some very different destinations. Many entered the areas liberated under Operation Euphrates Shield. In other words, with US assistance, they moved into the Turkish zone, and from there they were free to go anywhere.

Similar theatrics might also be performed during subsequent redeployments of terrorists. The question is, to what extent is the White House in the loop regarding the Pentagon’s maneuvers with IS militants? It can’t be ruled out that, just like long ago in 1945, the military is not acting with the president’s approval. If the US administration was briefed on this operation and gave it a green light, then this is yet another example of strategic myopia. Any treaty with the “black devil” is always dangerous for the one who pursues it.

Advertisements

Because Mr Trump… Your Country Caused These ‘Shitholes’

Because Mr Trump… Your Country Caused These ‘Shitholes’

Because Mr Trump… Your Country Caused These ‘Shitholes’

US President Trump’s outrageous remarks on various poor nations – calling them “shitholes” – not only reveal a heartless racist. Donald Trump also shows himself to be appallingly ignorant.

What does it say about our world when the leader of supposedly the most powerful military nation is a complete ignoramus about the most basic facts of history? Surely, this is an horrific danger to all of humanity from having someone so reckless and stupid with access to nuclear weapons.

The global indignation over Trump’s foul denigration continues to mount days after he uttered it. The African Union representing 55 nations has demanded an apology from the president. He is now trying to walk back his incendiary comments in a blatant attempt to lie, which is only fueling more anger.

What’s even more abhorrent is that the vast majority of the countries that Trump was referring to can trace their intractable problems of poverty and violence directly to US involvement in those countries. Yet, he crassly wonders why America has any obligation to shelter people fleeing from them.

During a meeting last Thursday with Republican and Democratic lawmakers in the White House to discuss US immigration policy, Trump reportedly became frustrated when the list of countries receiving Temporary Protected Status (TPS) was read out to him.

Currently there are ten countries afforded TPS by official US immigration controls. Such status permits the entry of a certain quota of citizens.

They are: El Salvador, Haiti, Honduras, Nepal, Nicaragua, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Yemen and Syria.

Trump reportedly blurted out: “What do we want Haitians here for? Why do we want all these people from Africa here? Why are we having all these people from shithole countries coming here?”

He then capped his racist, exploitative view of the world by adding: “We should have more people from places like Norway.”

So, in Trump’s shallow, utilitarian worldview, as long as you are blond, blue-eyed, educated and from a wealthy state then you are welcome in the US to be utilized for its economic growth.

Trump’s disgust with the listed immigrant countries shows his astounding cluelessness, or maybe callousness.

For the fact is that nine of the ten countries afforded TPS – 90 per cent – can attribute their immigration tendency to the legacy of destructive US policies bearing down on those countries.

Only one of them, Nepal, has a humanitarian crisis unrelated directly to American foreign policy, resulting from a natural cause – the earthquake that hit the Himalayan South Asian nation in April 2015.

Let’s quickly review the 90 per cent.

El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua have all been left with a legacy of US-backed wars over several decades. During the 1970s, 80s, and 90s, the US flooded the Central American region with weapons and American-trained death squads to hunt down leftwing guerrillas, politicians, labour activists, peasants, land rights activists, and priests – anyone who was deemed to threaten the traditional US-backed power structure of Caudillo regimes subordinate to American corporations and capital.

It is estimated that US-backed wars killed as many as 200,000 people across Central America, leaving populations traumatized, impoverished and tormented subsequently with armed criminal gangs.

Nicaragua is a poignant case in point. Its leftwing revolutionary Sandinista government – which ousted the decades-old US-backed Somoza dictatorship in 1979 – was destroyed by American proxy war using Contra death squads operating out of Honduras.

Currently, there are some 250,000 Salvadorans living as migrants in the US. Trump wants to send them all back to their country. A recurring fear among the migrants is the rampant violence from armed gangs in El Salvador – a direct legacy of past US military intervention.

It is true that Nicaragua and El Salvador were also hit by earthquakes which have exacerbated humanitarian problems of poverty and social degradation. But arguably the violence and political turmoil fomented in those countries by the US over decades is the major destructive factor in those societies.

The same can be said for Haiti. The Caribbean island country was devastated by an earthquake in 2009, and is reportedly still reeling from the impact. Nevertheless, the intractable poverty and social discord is a legacy of US governments backing decades of dictatorships under Papa Doc and Baby Doc Duvalier. Repeated US military invasions over the past century to repress socially progressive politics ensured that Haiti retained its function as an impoverished offshore location for American corporations to ruthlessly exploit for sweatshop labor.

Regarding African countries on the TPS list, US policy was instrumental in the break-up of Sudan into Northern and Southern states in 2011-2012. That, in turn, has wrecked the economies of both states and fomented conflicts, leading to massive displacement of communities.

Somalia on the Horn of Africa was invaded by US forces in the early 1990s and for the past three decades has been destabilized by relentless American military aggression from naval, air and drone strikes in a so-called “war on terror”.

More generally, Africa’s mass emigrations can also be traced directly to US and NATO European members waging illegal wars in several countries, including Libya, Mali, Niger, Ivory Coast and the Central African Republic. US-backed proxy wars in Angola, Uganda, Democratic Republic of Congo and Mozambique have too left a baleful legacy.

More generally, it can never be underestimated the extent of underdevelopment that Africa has been historically hobbled with from American and European colonial and neocolonial economic exploitation.

As for the two other “shithole” countries on Trump’s list – Syria and Yemen – they may most acutely represent just how degenerate this president is.

For continuing under his watch in the White House, American criminal military interventions in those countries have caused millions of people to be killed, maimed, starved and displaced. Syria, in particular, has been reduced from a fairly developed society to a pile of rubble by a six-year war instigated and perpetuated covertly by the US and its NATO and regional client regimes.

Yemen has been turned into an apocalyptic hell-hole from nearly three years of American-backed Saudi aggression against that country, including maintaining a sea, air and land blockade on the whole nation – a massive war crime – resulting in millions of children starving or dying from cholera and other preventable diseases. How could any country suffering a veritable genocide not be turned into anything but a “shithole”?

Mr Trump, are you listening or has your brain been turned into a pile of mush from the fast-food diet you gorge every day?

Considering the carnage that US foreign policy and conduct has inflicted around the world in pursuit of American imperialist interests, the Temporary Protected Status list should not comprise ten nations. It should be extended to dozens of – maybe 100 – countries that have borne the vandalism of American power.

Trump’s deprecation of “shithole” countries is a nauseating display of American ignorance and callousness. No wonder the US continues with its wrecking-ball behavior in the world.

As former Mexican President Vicente Fox alluded to in his outrage over Trump’s latest remarks, the biggest, foulest shit-hole in the world is in Washington. Because there they really do have shit for brains and morals.

أوراق ترامب وبن سلمان ونتنياهو تحترق

 

أوراق ترامب وبن سلمان ونتنياهو تحترق

يناير 5, 2018

ناصر قنديل

– لا يمكن الاستهانة بحجم الأوراق التي أظهر محور واشنطن الرياض تل أبيب امتلاكها لفرض توازنات جديدة مقابل انتصارات محور المقاومة في سورية، وصموده في اليمن، وتعزيز نسبة شراكته في العراق، وتصاعد مصادر قوّته في لبنان وإيران، وصولاً لنهوض روسيا كقوة عظمى فاعلة ومقرّرة، فتكفي نظرة على ما شهدته ساحات المواجهة في الأشهر الثلاثة الأخيرة من العام الماضي لمعرفة حجم وأهمية هذه الأوراق ومدى خطورتها لو كتب النجاح لاستخدامها.

– يكفي تخيّل معنى أن تكون السعودية قد نجحت بتأديب قطر وضمّها إلى محورها بقيادة محمد بن سلمان، لتقود مع الإمارات بدعم أميركي «إسرائيلي» مشروع انفصال كردستان عن العراق وتشكيل حاضنة معترف بها لفصل أكراد سورية وتوفير غطاء شرعي للوجود الأميركي وربما «الإسرائيلي» في سورية وفي العراق أيضاً، ليتكامل كلّ ذلك مع نجاح مشروع الفتنة في لبنان باحتجاز وإقالة رئيس الحكومة اللبنانية سعد الحريري من الرياض وفرض حَجْر على منصب رئاسة الحكومة يأخذ لبنان إما لرئيس حكومة يمكن تفجير الشارع بوجهه أو لفراغ حكومي يفجّر البلد بغيابه، ليلحق بالمشهد اللبناني المتفجّر مشهد اليمن وقد سقطت صنعاء بيد الرئيس السابق علي عبدالله صالح وانقلابه بدعم سعودي إماراتي. والأهمّ أن تأتي الأحداث الإيرانية الأخيرة في كلّ هذا المشهد المتداعي في ساحات انتصارات محور المقاومة، لتستند إلى حاضنة جغرافية مفتوحة الحدود مع إيران في كردستان العراق، وإلى انشغال في العراق وسورية ولبنان واليمن كلّ بنيران تشتعل في أطراف ثوبه.

– تساقطت أوراق كانت كلفة وجودها جهود وإمكانات هائلة وسنوات طويلة، واحترقت خلال أيام، فقضية ترويض قطر انقلبت بتقارب قطري إيراني. وانفصال كردستان صار خطراً لخسارة الأكراد مكاسب ما قبل الانفصال، ومزيداً من إمساك الحكومة العراقية المركزية بالقرار الأمني والعسكري والسياسي. وفتنة لبنان أنتجت مزيداً من التفلت اللبناني من القبضة السعودية، بحيث ضعف الحلف الذي تقوده الرياض وفقد قدرته على التأثير في رسم السياسات. والانقلاب اليمني منح أنصار الله الإمساك بالعاصمة بما جعل التسوية معهم ممراً إجبارياً لأيّ نهاية للحرب في اليمن، أما الأحداث الإيرانية التي لم تشذّ عن القاعدة بتساقط أوراقها بأيام فقد منحت الدولة الإيرانية فرصة المزيد من التماسك حول سياسات اقتصادية تعالج المشكلات وتبعد أجنحة الدولة عن التنافس، كما منحتها مزيداً من المناعة بوجه محاولات التخريب وقدرة على امتصاص واحتواء التحركات المطلبية وفصلها عن المشاريع السياسية الخارجية.

– تسقط آخر الأوراق التي اشتغل الأميركيون و«الإسرائيليون» والسعودية لتكوين نواتها وآلياتها شهوراً وأنفقوا عليها أموالاً طائلة، وراهنوا عليها لتدخلهم إلى القلعة الإيرانية وتكون حصان طروادة الذي يغيّر مجرى كلّ حروبهم الخاسرة. وها هي الحصيلة، في اليوم السابع لم يبقَ منها إلا ما يقولونه كذباً في إعلامهم عن استمرار التظاهرات الاحتجاجية والمواجهات بين المتظاهرين وأجهزة الدولة. وبمثل ما يجب التساؤل ماذا لو نجحت الحلقات تباعاً، يجب التساؤل كيف سقطت الحلقات تباعاً فلم تشتعل حلقة جديدة إلا وقد أخمدت التي قبلها، وهل يعني ذلك غير تحسّب محور المقاومة وجهوزيّته للمفاجآت؟

– الآن يضعون روسيا على جدول الأعمال لحراك الربيع بمناسبة الانتخابات الرئاسية وآمالهم كبيرة بجمع اللوبيات اليهودية والتجمّعات الإسلامية والتأثير الأميركي في وسائل التواصل الاجتماعي والإعلام، والمال السعودي والمخابرات «الإسرائيلية»، وروسيا تستعدّ وتدرك ما يُدبَّر، وكما احترقت الأوراق التي سبقت ستحترق الأوراق اللاحقة، وقد نضبت، لتقول حقيقة إنّ الصناعة لا تحلّ مكان الطبيعة والافتعال لا يغلّب الفعل والتذاكي لا يتغلّب على الذكاء.

Related Videos

Related Articles

MILITARY AND POLITICAL TRENDS OF 2017 THAT WILL SHAPE 2018 AS SEEN BY SOUTH FRONT AND NASSER KANDIL

South Front

2017 presented the world with a number of crises, among which were the continued wars in the Middle Ease and the spread of terrorism, the humanitarian crises in Africa and Asia, the rising military tensions over North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs, and the militarization of both the South China Sea and eastern Europe. Throughout the past year regional and global powers have repeatedly been on the verge of open military conflict, any of which may yet still lead to large regional wars.

In the Middle East the war on ISIS, the Iran nuclear deal, the crisis in Lebanon, and Israeli-Arab tensions took center stage.

By the end of the year, the self-proclaimed caliphate of ISIS had fully collapsed in both Syria and Iraq. Thanks to the efforts of the alliance between Syria, Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah, along with the Iraqi forces and the US-led coalition, this group was driven out from almost all of the areas it had held in the two countries.  ISIS has lost control of such strategic locations as Mosul, al-Qaim, Raqqah, al-Tabqah, Deir Ezzor, al-Mayadin, al-Bukamal, as-Sukhna, Deir Hafer, Maskanah, and al-Resafa.

ISIS, in form of a terrorist state, does not exist more. However, this does not mean that Syria and Iraq will face calm soon. There are still lots of ISIS sleeper cells and former ISIS supporters in these countries, a Syrian al-Qaeda branch (now known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) controls Idlib, and the Kurdish-Arab tensions are smoldering in northern Syria and Iraq. These issues cannot be ignored and will become an important part of the post-ISIS standoff in the region.

Now, Russia, the US, Turkey, Iran and Syria are increasing their diplomatic activity in order to find a way, which could allow work to start on developing a final political settlement of the crisis. They all have objective limits to their influence on the ground and some contradictory goals. This complicates the situation, especially amid a lack of strategic vision from the US which, according even to American experts, has no long-term strategy for Syria. The US elites and their Israeli and Saudi counterparts are especially dissatisfied with the strengthened position of Hezbollah and Iran.

Following the defeat of ISIS, the US-led bloc began attempting to use those areas of Syria held by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces to limit the influence of the Damascus government and its Iranian and Russian allies.

Another flash point in this conflict lies within the province of Idlib, now mostly controlled by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Within the framework of the agreements reached by Syria, Iran, Russia, and Turkey in the Astana format, a de-escalation zone should now have been established in this area. However, this is hardly possible while Hayat Tahrir al-Sham remains the main powerbroker in this location.

Despite the defeat of ISIS and the partial withdrawal of Russian forces, Syria will remain a battleground in this regional military and geo-political standoff in 2018. Militarily, the Iranian-Russian-Syrian alliance will continue to focus its efforts on reducing the influence of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in the province of Iblib.  These efforts will include launching a series of limited military operations against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and further developing counter-insurgency efforts against ISIS. On the diplomatic stage, the different sides will continue to work on developing a political solution to the crisis.

Meanwhile, the United States finds itself in a complicated situation: on the one hand, it cannot officially accept Assad’s government as a participant in the negotiations, while on the other hand the US has scant leverage to influence the situation. Thus, the White House will try to increase its efforts to divide Syria through supporting the separatist intentions of the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), as well as the armed ‘opposition’ groups in the region.

The goal of such a strategy is to build a ‘de-facto’ independent entity within Syria. Additionally, the US could make either direct or proxy attempts to assassinate Assad and his inner circle.

Iran will likely further strengthen its influence within Iraq after establishing a land route linking Teheran, Baghdad, Damascus, and Beirut. This so-called ‘Shia Crescent’ will become reality despite stiff opposition from both Israel and its allies. Watch for Washington to play the Kurdish card to counter Iran’s growing influence in both Iraq and Syria.

In addition, the US could also attempt to split the ranks of the Popular Mobilization Units by separating individual groups from the larger organization. Such an action could be done with the use of mass bribes, as was done with some generals of the Iraqi Armed Forces during the Iraq War.

The military victory over ISIS in Syria dramatically escalated tensions between Israel and the Iranian-backed forces of Hezbollah.

At present time, Israel’s top political leadership is in the state of outright hysteria regarding the Lebanese movement.  Senior Israeli officials have repeatedly claimed that Israel will not allow Hezbollah and Iran to concentrate its forces in border areas and to expand their influence in the region, particularly in Syria and Lebanon.

The already difficult situation in southern Lebanon and Syria was further complicated by the series of events, which contributed to the growing tensions in the region in November and early December. It started with a resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri announced from Saudi Arabia on November 7, continued with Saudi accusations of military aggression through missile supplies to Yemen against Iran and rose to a new level on December 6 when US President Donald Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital sparking further escalation. Some experts also said Israel, Saudi Arabia and the US are conspiring to start a new war in the region. In this light, a series of military exercises, including the biggest one “The Light of Dagan”, was described as a part of the preparations for armed aggression against Lebanon.

The recent developments in the Middle East, including the nearing end of the conflict in Syria and the growing influence and military capabilities of Hezbollah, have changed the political situation in Lebanon. Hezbollah units de-facto fulfil functions of the presidential guard. Lebanese special services and the special services of Hezbollah are deeply integrated. Hezbollah’s victories in Syria and humanitarian activities in Lebanon increased the movement’s popularity among people.

Tel Aviv believes that the growing influence of Hezbollah and Iran in the Middle East, particularly in Syria and Lebanon, is a critical challenge to its national security. The key issue is that Israeli military analysts understand that Hezbollah is now much more powerful than it was in 2006. Now, Hezbollah is a strong, experienced, military organization, tens of thousands troops strong, which has the needed forces and facilities to oppose a possible Israeli ground invasion in Lebanon.

Iran has also strengthened its positions in the region over the last ten years. It has reinforced its air defense with the Russian-made S-300 systems, strengthened its armed forces and got combat experience in Syria and other local conflicts. Tehran also strengthened its ideological positions among the Shia and even Sunni population which lives in the region.

Considering these circumstances, initial expert opinions indicate that Israel would decide to participate in a large-scale conflict in Lebanon only in the case of some extraordinary event. However, the growing Arab-Israeli tensions and the tense Israeli-Hezbollah relationship are moving this extraordinary event ever closer.

Nonetheless, Israel will continue local acts of aggression conducting artillery and air strike on positions and infrastructure of Hezbollah in Syria and maybe in Lebanon. Israeli special forces will conduct operations aimed at eliminating top Hezbollah members and destroying the movement’s infrastructure in Lebanon and Syria. Saudi Arabia will likely support these Israeli actions. It is widely known that Riyadh would rather use a proxy and engage in clandestine warfare.

All these took place amid the developing crisis in Saudi Arabia where Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had launched a large-scale purge among the top officials, influential businesspersons and princes under the pretext of combating corruption. According to the experts, the move is aimed at consolidating the power of the crown prince and his father, King Salman. In general, the kingdom is seeking to shift its vector of development and to become a more secular state. In 5-10 years, it can even abandon Wahhabism as the official ideology. At the same time, Saudi Arabia is involved in an unsuccessful conflict in Yemen and a diplomatic crisis with Qatar. This situation fuels tensions and a competition for resources among the Saudi clans. As a result, the Saudi regime and the Saudi state in general, are now, in a weak position.

These are the key reasons why Saudi Arabia prefers to avoid an open participation in new conflicts. Additionally, there is always a chance, that for example of conflict in Lebanon, the main combat actions could be moved to the Saudi territory.

Russia and Iran are also not interested in this “big new war” as well because such a conflict in the Middle East will pose a direct threat to their national security.

During the coming year we can expect to see both Israel and Saudi Arabia continuing their diplomatic and military efforts to deter Iran and Hezbollah.

Riyadh will continue its efforts to turn Yemen into a puppet state, but is unlike to achieve any notable successes, leaving the Houthis and their missile arsenal as a constant threat to Saudi Arabia.

Israel and Saudi Arabia will also continue their building of a broad anti-Iranian coalition, with the support of the Trump administration, while Israeli forces will continue conducting their limited military operations against Hezbollah targets in Syria and Lebanon. In general, the chances of a new regional conflict will remain high.

In this already unstable environment, the current US policy remains as one of the key destabilizing factors in the region. The recent US recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, as well as the hostility towards the Iranian nuclear deal continue to fuel tensions between the Israeli-Saudi and the Iranian-Hezbollah blocs.

The current US administration continues with America’s consistent pro-Israeli and anti-Iranian policies in the region, inspiring both Israel and Saudi Arabia to embrace more active policies as well.

As a result of this growing US support, the Israeli military stands ready to implement active military responses to any action taken by Hamas, Hezbollah, or any of the other regional players whom Israel considers a threat to its wide range of national interests.

While the odds are low of the Trump administration being able to abort the Iranian nuclear deal, the mere fact that such attempts continue does little to contribute to peace in the region. The fact remains that Washington fuels the new cold war and perhaps even a potential hot war in the Middle East.

We may expect that during the coming year Iran will continue to increase its influence in the region by using the war in Yemen, and its strengthened positions in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon to counter its opponents. In addition to its military efforts on the ground, Teheran’s main strategic focus will likely be the development of military and economic relations with both China and Russia. During 2018 we may also expect that Iran will pay special attention to the modernization and reformation of its armed forces.

In Egypt, the security situation remains complicated, especially in the North Sinai. Following the defeat of ISIS in Syria and Iraq, remnants of the terrorist group have spread across the region with a number of them arriving in the peninsula. While the Egyptian Army and security forces have conducted a number of operations to eradicate terrorist cells in the area, militant activity remains high there, fueled in part by trafficking to Gaza.

In addition to the remnants of ISIS in the North Sinai, Egypt faces continuing challenges along its border with Libya. Following the NATO intervention in that country in 2011, the Libyan government and social structure have been all but destroyed, with multiple factions battling each other for control over both the trafficking and oil business.

The rapidly developing relations between Russia and Egypt have been overshadowed by the more prominent relationships between Russia and Syria, as well as Russia and Iran. Nevertheless, the Russia-Egypt relationship deserves closer scrutiny because, unlike the country’s relations with the other two Middle Eastern powers, it concerns a country that until recently appeared to be  firmly in Western orbit. The abrupt shift of its geopolitical vector toward Eurasia therefore represents a far bigger change for the region than Russia’s successful support of the legitimate Syrian government, or the close relationship with the Islamic Republic of Iran, both of which have been on the Western “enemies list” for decades. The reasons for this shift are twofold, and have to do with the way Western powers interact with Middle Eastern powers in the context of a systemic economic crisis, as well as with Russia’s demonstrated attractiveness as an ally.

These events have led to strengthening economic ties and military cooperation between both sides. Recent negotiations to build Egypt’s first nuclear plant, as well as those allowing Russian and Egypt joint use of each other’s air space and military bases are perhaps the most noticeable examples of this cooperation.

With recent rumors of Russia establishing a military base on the coast of the Red Sea, in Sudan, it is easy to conclude that Moscow has become an influential power in the region, with some countries now viewing Russia as an attractive alternative to the US. With its rejection of direct cooperation with Moscow, Washington has weakened its own position in the region.

In the coming year Egypt and other regional powers will move further towards a diversification of their foreign policy partners, with regional elites recognizing that the world has become more multipolar and threats and challenges have taken new forms and greater complexity.

Due to the rapidly developing situation in the region and the failed military coup attempt in July, Erdogan’s Turkey has become a reluctant ally of the Syrian-Russian-Iranian alliance in the Syrian war. Examples of this, such as the success of the Astana talks on Syria, the Russian-Turkish S-400 deal, and the Turkish-Iranian-Iraqi cooperation to counter the formation of an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq by the Kurdistan Regional Government showcase this changed geo-political landscape.

During 2018, Turkey will remain a key player in the ongoing Syrian crisis, and an ally (if a reluctant one) of the Iranian-Russian-Syrian alliance in the region. Ankara has few options remaining aside from developing its coordination with this bloc.

The current US foreign policy towards northern Syria and Iraq is frankly incoherent, with Turkey (being a NATO member and the most powerful US partner in the Eastern Mediterranean), no longer considering the US as a reliable ally in its strategic planning.

The diplomatic crisis over Qatar, which began in June after Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt severed diplomatic relations and imposed sanctions upon the country is yet another development leading to the current balance of power in the region.

The crisis represents the most severe conflict among Gulf Arab states since the end of the Cold War. While these oil-rich, autocratic OPEC members have historically been at the most allies of convenience united by common fears (USSR, Saddam Hussein, Iran, etc.), their mutual mistrust has arguably never escalated to the point of demanding to what amounts to a complete surrender by one of its members.

However, the recent Saudi-led attempts to force Qatar to obey Saudi interests in the region have pushed Doha into the arms of Turkey, Iran, and Russia.

In 2018, the main goal of Qatar will be to normalize relations with the Saudi-led bloc while simultaneously avoiding being forced into making significant concessions to this bloc’s members. Qatari cooperation with Turkey, Iran, and Russia will be a useful card to play in this case. Qatari elites may also search for opportunities to influence internal relations within the Saudi elites.

Throughout 2017, US-Russian diplomatic relations continued to deteriorate with both sides using increasingly strident rhetoric and imposing various measures against each other. Initial hopes and expectations that the election of Donald Trump to the presidency would lead to a détente between the two powers were quickly dashed.

The Trump administration sacrificed its promises to normalize relations with Moscow, and to cooperate more fully in counter-terrorism actions in an attempt to gain a temporary softening of the pressures imposed by its own domestic political opponents. Unfortunately, this attempt to placate this internal  opposition gained nothing for Trump and his administration, and succeeded only in escalating the continued media and diplomatic standoff with Russia.

This internal opposition, which some may describe as the American Deep State, cares little about the true intentions of Trump and his supporters, and continues to keep playing the so-called ‘Russia Card’ as a means of further limiting the freedom of action of the new US president.

US society has become further polarized by racial, ethnic, and political divisions and opposing sides are unlikely to resolve this conflict through negotiation.

Racial and cultural divisions, always present in American society, were further inflamed by the liberal, Clinton camp’s attempts to create discord by playing the race card and demonizing the leaders of the Confederate States. At the same time, a large part of American society has become disappointed with Trump’s domestic and foreign policies, and has become disillusioned with his seeming inability to overcome the resistance of the Deep State.

In 2018 we can expect to see further deterioration in relations between the US and Russia, with both sides remaining involved in a number of crises around the world. The defeat of ISIS will add to the geo-political standoff in the Middle East, while in Ukraine both nations will support opposing sides, with little chances of finding common ground. Another critical factor that will make its appearance in the coming year is the Russian 2018 presidential election and the strong intention of US elites to intervene in Russian internal policy, with the risk of pushing a new Cold War past the brink.

The Latin American situation remains unstable and complicated, with Venezuela remaining as a center of uncertainty. In 2018, the Venezuelan president will struggle to retain power in the midst of continued turmoil in his country.

Unsettling processes are also evident in Russia, which faces ongoing economic problems caused by the increasing pressure of Western imposed sanctions. Russian power elites, allied with foreign powers, have benefited from this situation, and have strengthened their influence. Generally, the Russian state has shown a relatively low degree of economic effectiveness, only partly compensated by its foreign policy successes. These factors can and will complicate Russia’s internal political situation during the upcoming 2018 presidential election.

Ukraine still remains the key flash point in Europe.  The Kiev government, strongly influenced by various radical groups, is unlikely to abide by the terms of the Minsk agreements, as it views Minsk as surrender. Prominent Ukrainian political figures publically admit that these agreements were a trick, meant only to buy time in order to prepare for a military solution to this crisis in the eastern part of the country.

The leadership of the Donetsk and People’s Republics clearly understand this, and have further strengthened their ties to Russia in order to prevent a future attempt by the Kiev government to re-integrate this territory.

The regime in Kiev remains in a very complicated political and economic situation, having been all but abandoned by its US and EU handlers. In an attempt to retain control over their country, the current Ukrainian government will likely try to escalate the situation in Donbass in an attempt to gain more economic, political, and perhaps even military support from the West.

Meanwhile, Washington and Brussels are considering alternatives to President Poroshenko and his government, one of whom is Mikhail Saakashvili, the disgraced former president of Georgia. At this time, the odds of Saakashvili gaining power in 2018 remain high. If he were to gain power it is likely that he would attempt to improve Ukrainian internal and economic policies to strengthen the state and to obtain additional Western support.

It is doubtful that Saakashvili would be able to pursue this attempt to stabilize the country for any length of time, due to his erratic personality. After he realizes the military and economic potentials still possessed by the nation, he would likely attempt a military operation against the self-proclaimed republics of eastern Ukraine and the Russian military forces in Crimea, much as he did in Georgia in 2008. Such a move would likely lead to a large regional conflict in 2019.

In the European Union, we can observe the continued decline of the institutions of the European bureaucracy. Crises such as those we see in Catalonia, as well as the inability of the European leadership to successfully deal with the migration flow from North Africa and the Middle East are clear signs of this continuing decay. In an attempt to control these problems, the EU has intensified attempts to develop a joint security system and to lay the foundation for the creation of a European army. These efforts, however, could come too late.

If the EU is unable to find a way to consolidate its member states in 2018, we can expect to witness further fragmentation in the future.

In Central and Southeastern Asia, the key security problems continue to be militancy and the spread of terrorism. The US and its NATO partners remain unable to deal with the Taliban in Afghanistan – some experts believe that the Taliban is slowly reaching a level of influence in the region which could lead to its recognition as a rightful party in any negotiations involving the US-led bloc. Currently, in some parts of the country, the Taliban even conducts operations against ISIS in order to prevent this group from spreading further.

The historical instability seen on the Pakistani-Indian and the Indian-Chinese borders have long been factors contributing to the general instability in this region. However, all sides have been successful, so far, in avoiding open military conflicts.

In the Philippines, an attempt by ISIS to establish its rule on the island of Mindanao was defeated by the government, who also purged militants who had seized control in the city of Marawi. The ISIS threat has been successfully countered in this nation, at least for the time being.

In 2018, terrorism will remain the key threat for Central and Southeastern Asia. Expect the Taliban to expand its influence further in Afghanistan, as ISIS continues its attempts to establish a larger foothold in the region. Pakistani-Indian and Chinese-Indian tensions will likely remain within the spheres of diplomatic and economic competition, barring any extraordinary and destabilizing events. An additional and notable threat to the stability of the region is the continued flight of ISIS members from Syria and Iraq into Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.

China has continued its expansion in the Asian Pacific by turning the South China Sea into an anti-access and area-denial zone controlled by the Chinese military through a network of artificial islands. In addition, Beijing has also expanded its maritime, airlift, and amphibious capabilities, and is actively working to shift the balance of power in the Pacific, a region which it describes as lying within its sphere of influence, through its naval power dominance in the area.

In diplomatic and economic terms, China continues to follow a finely balanced foreign policy, while providing a slight diplomatic support to Russia. This calibrated approach allows Beijing to contest US dominance in some regions, most obviously in the Middle East, while avoiding an open confrontation with its main economic partner.

In addition to the tensions in the South China Sea, North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs have been the center of attention within the international community. North Korea has recently conducted another nuclear test, and has tested an intercontinental ballistic missile, which it claims has the range to reach any target within the mainland United States. Despite the war-like rhetoric of the Trump administration and the imposition of additional sanctions, no progress has been made toward a peaceful resolution, with North Korea only accelerating its efforts to become a fully-fledged nuclear power. In the near future, this situation may pass a turning point, when the US is left with no military options in its conflict with North Korea, and negotiations remain the only solution. Should this situation come about, it will be a blow to both the image of the US as the self-proclaimed world’s policeman, and to the mechanisms of nuclear non-proliferation.

In 2018, China will continue to strengthen its military and diplomatic positions in the region, and become a regional superpower, and well on its way to global dominance as it competes with the US. North Korea will likely continue developing its nuclear and missile programs, and if the US does not invade, which is unlikely, become a fully-fledged nuclear state.

As 2017 comes to a close, it becomes evident that this year, has been a difficult one, for all of mankind. The world trembled over new threats of large-scale regional conflicts and over potential use of the weapons of mass destruction. The year brought considerable escalations between key global players, which created real risks of direct confrontation.

At the same time, 2017 can be coined as the year, when the threat known as ISIS, a proxy terrorist state, was eliminated. It was the year when global powers were compelled to compromise under the most stringent conditions and amid multiple conflicts. International players, capable of rigorous logic and in-depth analysis, will extricate valuable lessons from 2017, which can help make the world safer.

However, experience shows that emotions, poise and ill-conceived projects often triumph over common sense. The result, is a breakdown of pragmatic and balanced approaches of traditional diplomacy. Rudeness and incivility are becoming more common within the spheres of international organizations and in bilateral relations. Ambitions of small elite-based groups force countries and nations, to adopt models of behavior which clearly contradict their interests.

Unfortunately, all of this precludes a bright prognosis for 2018. The world will not become safer. Relationships between major global powers will remain strained at best. Likely, they will deteriorate. The number of small-scale regional conflicts will not decrease. The use of weapons of mass destruction  will remain a real threat within the framework of regional conflicts. Levels of terrorist activity may rise. One can only hope, that this combination of threats and provocations, will lead to a re-assessment of reality and force de-escalation in the subsequent years.

———————-

Naser Kandil

Related news

أردوغان ولعبة تحت الطاولة

 

أردوغان ولعبة تحت الطاولة 

ناصر قنديل

– ما مرّ على تركيا في ظلّ حكم رجب أردوغان كان كافياً لتثبيت دروس في السياسة تجنّب تركيا المزيد من العبث السياسي والإعلامي، فقد بلغت تركيا في ذروة الربيع العربي وهم ولادة السلطنة العثمانية الجديدة من مصر إلى تونس إلى فلسطين إلى سورية والعراق، لكنها سرعان ما بدأت تتهاوى بفشل مشروع السيطرة على سورية لتلحق بها حالات انهيار الإخوان في مصر وتونس وتموضع حماس في فلسطين، لتحصد تركيا من رهانها السلطاني خطر ولادة دويلة كردية على حدودها.

– لعب الأميركيون بتركيا ورئيسها ورتّبوا الانقلاب عليه عندما لم يثبت أهليته لإسقاط سورية كما فعلوا بزميله أمير قطر، واحتضنته روسيا وإيران وقدّمتا له سلّماً للنزول عن الشجرة فواصل المراوغة ولم يُتِمَّ التزاماته بإنهاء وضع جبهة النصرة، بعدما كان هو من جلب النصرة وداعش ورعاهما. ويعلم أردوغان أنّ لعبة الأكراد في سورية أميركية المنشأ والرعاية.

– بعد قرار الرئيس الأميركي حول القدس راهن أردوغان أنه يُمسك بفرصة العودة كلاعب حاسم إلى مسرح المنطقة فيركب الموجة ويتصدّر لائحة الدفاع عن القدس، بينما السفارة الإسرائيلية تقبع في أنقرة والعلاقات التركية الإسرائيلية في أوجها، ويظنّ أنه يمكن لمن يقيم مع إسرائيل علاقات مميّزة ادّعاء قيادة مسيرة القدس ليستثمرها في استهداف أهمّ قلعة داعمة للمقاومة تمثلها سورية.

– الرهان التركي الجديد ينطلق من عرض يقدّم للأميركي والسعودي و الإسرائيلي قوامه توظيف مكانة تركيا في العلاقة مع روسيا وإيران والعلاقة الخاصة بحركة حماس، لمنع إيران من قيادة معركة القدس، والتموضع في طليعة صفوف الصراخ حول القدس بهدف قطع الطريق على أيّ تصعيد يُحرج الأميركي والسعودي ويستنزف الإسرائيلي ، والانعطاف بالحالة الشعبية الداعمة للقدس في العالم الإسلامي عندما تحين اللحظة نحو خيار التسويات بدلاً من المواجهة، وتوظيف مكانة تركيا هذه في إضعاف محور المقاومة، خصوصاً توجيه سهام الأذى لسورية.

– الزيارة التي قام بها أردوغان للسودان وتوقيع اتفاقية تسلم جزيرة سواكن بعد العلاقات السوادنية السعودية المميّزة وترجمتها في حرب اليمن وترجمة التحسّن في العلاقات الأميركية السودانية عبر رفع العقوبات الأميركية عن السودان تعني أنّ هذه الخطوة الحساسة في التموضع التركي على البحر الأحمر تحظى برضى أميركي سعودي وضمناً إسرائيلي لأهمية البحر الأحمر في الحسابات الإسرائيلية . وبعد الأزمة القطرية الخليجية والتموضع التركي هناك لا يمكن منح تركيا هذه الميزة بغير حسابات كبرى وتفاهمات أكبر، والمتضرّر الوحيد هي مصر في هذه الحالة، فما هي الرسالة غير قيام تركيا بتطويق مصر من جهات عدة في ظلّ الحرب في ليبيا والتأثير على مكانة مصر فلسطينياً بقوة التأثير التركي داخل غزة؟

– لعبة تركية جديدة بلعب دور جديد عنوانه إضعاف جبهة المواجهة مع إسرائيل ، بعد القرار الأميركي باعتماد القدس عاصمة لـ إسرائيل ، عبر محاولة قيادة هذه المواجهة لتخريبها وتفتيت قواها وصرف عائداتها في غير الرصيد الذي يُفيد القدس، بل في اتجاه مساعدة إسرائيل على تخطي أزمتها مع الانتفاضة الفلسطينية.

– لم يتعلّم أردوغان أنه ليس في وضع يتيح له التلاعب بمعارك المنطقة التي يخوضها محور المقاومة، وأنّ شروط القيادة هنا تبدأ من أولويات قطع العلاقة بـ إسرائيل وتطبيع العلاقة بدول محور المقاومة وبوابتها دمشق. وهذا العنوان يجب أن يكون الشعار المرفوع من كلّ قوى المقاومة بوجه تركيا وكلّ دولة تدّعي دعم قضية القدس، اقطعوا العلاقات بـ إسرائيل واغلقوا سفاراتها أولاً، انفتحوا على قوى المقاومة وتصالحوا مع عواصمها، وفي مقدّمتها دمشق ثانياً، وحبّذا لو تفعل مصر ذلك، فتكتشف أنها تفضح بذلك اللعبة التركية التي تستهدفها بدعم أميركي سعودي تحت الطاولة تكشفه صفقة جزيرة سواكن، وأنها بذلك تسقط هذه اللعبة بالضربة القاضية.

Related Videos

Related Articles

مرفأ الحديدة… وحلب والقدس

 

مرفأ الحديدة… وحلب والقدس

ناصر قنديل

ديسمبر 23, 2017

– يمكن القول إن خارطة الشرق الأوسط الجديد، والانتقال إلى زمن البحار الخمسة بالرعاية الروسية لنظام إقليمي جديد، ترسم حدودها من حلب إلى الحديدة، وبينهما القدس، ففي حلب رُسمت حدود الدور التركي الذي شكل لخمس سنوات رأس الحربة في المشروع الأميركي لإحياء منظومة الشرق الأوسط الجديد الذي أرادته واشنطن من حرب تموز 2006 لسحق المقاومة في لبنان، كما صرّحت يومها وزيرة الخارجية الأميركية غونداليسا رايس، حيث أعيد تشكيل الدور التركي وصياغة منطلقاته من معركة حلب التي وضعت تركيا بين خياري الدخول في حرب شاملة مع روسيا وإيران وسورية والمقاومة من دون شراكة حلفاء تركيا في دول الغرب، وعلى رأسهم أميركا، أو التموضع عند خطوط جديدة للأمن التركي عنوانها منع قيام كيان كردي على الحدود، من خلال منظومة جديدة تضمنها روسيا وتشارك فيها إيران.

– يحتل مرفأ الحديدة في الحساب السعودي مكانة حلب في الحساب التركي، ومحاولة السعودية الحسم العسكري للسيطرة على الحديدة تشبه المحاولات التركية المتتابعة لحسم عسكري في حلب، وكما كانت حلب حلماً تركياً للتقدم نحو دمشق بصفتها العاصمة الثانية لسورية، تنظر السعودية للسيطرة على الحديدة كمقدمة للسيطرة على صنعاء. ومعادلة إسقاط الحديدة رتبت على السعودية معادلة تساقط الصواريخ على الرياض، وصارت الحرب المفتوحة على الحديدة بالغارات السعودية تعادل المزيد من الصواريخ على الرياض. وبعد ممانعة سعودية أمام كل محاولات الوساطة الأممية لفتح مرفأ الحديدة أمام السفن الإغاثية، رضخت السعودية للصواريخ التي استهدفت الرياض وأعلنت فتح الحديدة للسفن التجارية وسفن الوقود، بوساطة عمانية تضمنت طلباً سعودياً لهدنة تتوقف خلالها الصواريخ على الرياض. وهذه ليست إلا البداية لتموضع سعودي يشبه ما حدث مع تركيا، في مد وجزر، وتقدّم وتراجع، حتى تم القبول بمعادلة حلب، وقد صارت معادلة الحديدة قريبة، كما يبدو.

– بدأ السعوديون مساعيهم نحو روسيا بتحييد ملف اليمن عن المحادثات، وبالتتابع صار الملف اليمني على الطاولة بقدر ما صار المأزق السعودي واضحاً. وينتهج الروس في الملف اليمني مقاربة مختلفة عن مقاربتهم في سورية بالتأكيد. فهم يسلّمون بأن الخليج منطقة نفوذ أميركية بالمقياس الدولي، ولو كان منطقة نفوذ إيرانية بالمقياس الإقليمي، والدور الروسي في الخليج مختلف عنه في سورية، فهو في الخليج وسيط وفي سورية طرف، والحضور الروسي في ملف اليمن يشبه الحضور الروسي في ملف كوريا الشمالية، تظهير موقف معلن يبدو قريباً من الموقف الأميركي، لكنه ضمناً يراهن على المأزق الأميركي ليتدخّل. وبمثل ما ذهبت السعودية لشراء منظومة الصواريخ الحديثة من روسيا ربطت روسيا تسليمها بمناخ إقليمي بعيد عن التصعيد وأبدت استعدادها لوساطة بين السعودية وإيران، كما تبدي في اليمن دعمها للمساعي السياسية للحل، وتنتظر اليأس السعودي من الحل العسكري لتتقدّم.

– القدس مفتاح النظام الإقليمي الجديد، حيث المواجهات ترسم الصورة المقبلة، بعدما بدا بوضوح استحالة أخذ الفلسطينيين على حين غرة، واستحالة تمرير الحلول المتفق عليها مع السعودية من وراء ظهر الفلسطينيين، واستحالة شطب القدس من الذاكرة الإنسانية، وبدا بوضوح أشدّ أن قدرة الفلسطينيين على تحمل زمن المواجهة أعلى بكثير من قدرة «الإسرائيليين» على تحمل حرب الاستنزاف، وفقدان الأعصاب هو التعبير. الفلسطينيون يقابلون سقوط شهدائهم بصبر ويواصلون حربهم بهدوء وحيوية، و«الإسرائيليون» يقابلون أزمتهم الدبلوماسية بغضب فيفقدون أعصابهم ويبدأون بالإنسحاب من المنظمات الدولية التي يدخلها الفلسطينيون، بدءاً من الأونيسكو أمس. وعندما يصرخ «الإسرائيليون» من الوجع طلباً للوساطة سيطل الروس برأسهم، كما قالوا بالأمس بعد اتصال بين الرئيس الروسي والرئيس التركي، أن موسكو مستعدة للتوسط من أجل حل سياسي يحقق السلم الثابت بتطبيق القرارات الدولية.

– واشنطن منحت السعودية و«إسرائيل» ما تريدان للتنصل من شروط «التسويات المؤلمة»، وعند الفشل سيطلبان المساعدة من صديق.

Related Videos

Related Articles

في الطريق إلى المنازلة الكبرى أسرار الكرّ والفرّ على هوامش الانكسار…!

 

في الطريق إلى المنازلة الكبرى أسرار الكرّ والفرّ على هوامش الانكسار

ديسمبر 23, 2017

محمد صادق الحسيني

دول الشر الكبرى وبعض أذنابها تشعر بمرارة الانكسار عند بوابات عواصمنا وأسوار حواضرنا، وآخرها فشل مؤامرتها الكبرى في إسقاط القلعة من الداخل في صنعاء الثورة والصمود…!

ووجعها وصل إلى المخ والمخيخ ولم تعد تتحمل توالي انتصارات محور المقاومة وتداعيات ذلك على رياح الكرة الارضية الأربع…!

ولأنها تملك أوراقاً احتياطية على الدوام فهي في طريقها للعب بعضها، وهو ما سنكشفه لكم في الآتي من المطالعة الميدانية…

فرغم انتهاء الهجوم الاستراتيجي الكبير لمحور المقاومة عند نقطة البوكمال والتقاء العلمين العراقي والسوري، بما يشبه معركة العلمين في نهاية الحرب العالمية الثانية، ما يعني استراتيجياً تحقق الانتصار الناجز لمحورنا وهزيمة دول الحرب الكونية على كل من سورية والعراق، إلا انهم يحاولون التفلت من مشهد الهزيمة هذه قدر الامكان…!

وهو ما يتطلب منا ابقاء اليد على الزناد وإعمال اليقظة والانتباه إلى ما يجري من خطط إضافية من جانب العدو نتيجة شعوره بالخيبة الكبرى وسقوط مشاريعه الوهمية الامبراطورية العالمية او الإقليمية الكيدية.. الامر الذي يتطلب إبقاء العيون مفتحة على ما يسمّى أحياناً بـ«الخطة بـ«، وإليكم بعض خفاياها وأسرارها:

حيث أفادت مصادر استخبارية غربية متابعة لمجريات الحرب في سورية، بما يلي:

١ قامت غرفة عمليات الموك، التي تدير الحرب على سورية، وبتعليمات من القيادة المركزية الأميركية في الدوحة، بتجميع الجزء الأكبر من عصابات داعش الذين تم إخلاؤهم من جبهات القتال التي هزموا فيها في الشرق السوري، والذين جرى إخلاؤهم تارة على متن مروحيات نقل أميركية وتارة عبر قوافل شاحنات كبيرة، وبغطاء جوي أميركي كامل، قامت بتجميع الجزء الأكبر منهم في قواعد عسكرية سعودية وأميركية في حفر الباطن في السعودية.

٢ بدأت غرفة الموك واعتباراً من ٣/١٠/٢٠١٧، وبإشراف ضباط عمليات أميركيين و«إسرائيليين» بعقد دورات تدريبية سريعة لهؤلاء العناصر.

وقد استمرت الدورة الأولى، التي شارك فيها ستمئة عنصر، مدة شهرين. خضعوا خلالها لتدريبات قوات خاصة وتم تدريبهم على العمل ضمن كتيبة قوات صاعقة بأركانها كافة… أي تسلسل بنيوي وقيادي أقرب إلى التشكيل الكلاسيكي للكتيبة.

٣ تم إخضاع اثني عشر عنصراً منهم كل دورة أركان، بحيث يتولون لاحقاً تشكيل هيئة أركان للكتيبة.

كما يجري حالياً تدريب فصيل إدارة وفصيل إمداد سيتمّ إلحاقهم بالكتيبة بعد انتهاء تدريباتهم بتاريخ ٣٠/١٢/٢٠١٧.

٤ جرى نقل الكتيبة التي أنهت تدريبها في حفر الباطن إلى منطقة الحسكة السورية. وقد تمّ ذلك عبر طائرات نقل عسكرية أميركية من طراز C 130 J إلى قاعدة الرميلان الأميركية بالقرب من الحسكة.

٥ ستبدأ غرفة العمليات الميدانية الأميركية في بلدة الشدادي بدمج تشكيلات هذه الكتيبة، التي سيطلق عليها اسم جيش سوريا الجديد، مع التشكيلات الصهيوأميركية الاخرى والمسماة «قسد»، سيتمّ نشرها في قواطع عمليات الريف الشرقي لمدينة البوكمال ومدينة الميادين.

٦ تم تكليف هذه الكتيبة بالإضافة إلى نسبة من عصابة «قسد»، بالاستعداد للبدء في تنفيذ عمليات ضد وحدات الجيش السوري والقوات الحليفة في القاطع الشمالي الشرقي لمدينة البوكمال، وذلك بهدف إعادة السيطرة على المدينة وعلى قاطع الحدود العراقية السورية المقابل لها، على أن يبدأ هذا التحرك خلال الأسبوع الأول من شهر ١/٢٠١٨.

٧ سيتم رفد هذه العصابات المسلحة بالمزيد من القوات التي يجري تدريبها تدريجياً في حفر الباطن، والتي يبلغ مجموع عديدها أربعة آلاف عنصر.

علماً أن عمليات التدريب لكامل المجموعات الموجودة هناك ستستغرق خمسة إلى ستة أشهر.

هذه هي بعض خططهم في محاولة لتشتيت الأنظار عن نصرنا الكبير او مشاغلتنا عن هدفنا الاستراتيجي الذي يقضي بإجبارهم على الإذعان التام لنهاية مشروعهم الدولي والتسليم الكامل بنهاية مشروعهم الامبراطوري…

غير ان محاولاتهم هذه ستبوء بالفشل قطعاً بفضل دراية قادة محورنا ويقظتهم وتصميمهم القاطع على تصفية كل منابع الإرهاب من جذورها، بما فيها تلك الواقعة في الخاصرة الرخوة من ميادينهم الواقعة في محيط الجزيرة العربية وباب المندب..!

ذلك أن الهجوم الاستراتيجي الجديد لنا يقضي بإعادة تجميع قوانا باتجاه المعركة الأهم والأكبر، حيث تحرير الأقصى والأرض المباركة من حوله، وذلك في إطار المنازلة الكبرى المنتظرة والمتوقعة والتي نشتهيها مع إمبراطور الشر الأساس الشيطان الأكبر، أميركا في بطن قاعدته المتقدّمة على اليابسة الفلسطينية أي الكيان الصهيوني المسمّى «إسرائيل»…!

والى حين حلول زمان هذه المنازلة، فإن كل العيون شاخصة إلى هناك والمقبل من الزمان يشي بسقوط كثير من الممالك والأقنعة في هذا المسار، وصعود السادة من قادة الأمة إلى سدة مطبخ صناعة القرار العالمي، كما بات معلوماً لدى القاصي والداني..

وتبقى اليد العليا لنا، مهما حاولوا التشويش على صعودنا الثابت الخطى..

ويدهم هي السفلى بحماقتهم أحياناً، كما حصل مع قرار ترامب ونصرنا المستدام كما سيتبين من خطط غرفة عمليات ثورة القدس المشتعلة من الناقورة حتى إيلات..

بعدنا طيّبين، قولوا الله.

Related Articles

%d bloggers like this: