معادلة السيد أوقفوا حروبكم… أو «تخبزوا بالفراح»

سبتمبر 21, 2019

ناصر قنديل

– بعد توضيحات لا بد منها في ملفات شهدت بعض الاجتهادات والتساؤلات، انطلق السيد حسن نصرالله إلى رسم معادلاته الجديدة، كناطق بلسان محور المقاومة، الذي قال في وصفه أنه محور قوي وشجاع، منذ أن حسم معادلة انتهاء مرحلة التصرف كفرقاء مقاومين كل في ساحته إلى قرار التعامل كمحور موحّد في مواجهة كل حرب على أطراف المحور. والمحور الشجاع هو المحور الذي اتخذ قرار المواجهة متحسباً لمخاطر نشوب حرب، من إسقاط الطائرة الأميركية التجسسية العملاقة في الخليج، إلى عملية أفيفيم النوعية في فلسطين المحتلة، إلى عملية أرامكو التي هزت السعودية والاقتصاد العالمي. وهو المحور القوي لأنه نجح في تحقيق الأهداف وفي ردع العدو وإفهامه أن لا جدوى من مجرد التفكير بالردّ، فرسم معادلاته وقواعد اشتباكه ورسخ قانون حربه.

– في التوضيحات تناول السيد قضيتين راهنتين، الأولى مفردة المبعَدين بالتوازي مع قضية العملاء، ففكّكها مؤكداً أنها مفردة لا تعبر عن واقع، فما هو أمامنا الفارون أو الهاربون للاحتماء بكيان الاحتلال، هم عائلات العملاء، ولا خلط بين ملف العملاء وعائلاتهم، لكن كل شيء وفقاً للقانون، وكل مَن يعود يجب أن يخضع للتحقيق، ومن يثبت تورّطه بالعمالة على أي مستوى يجب أن يلقى عقاباً يتناسب مع أفعاله، ولا يجوز أن تكون الأحكام هزيلة ولا أن تسقط بمرور الزمن. وربّ ضارة نافعة أن حدث ما حدث حتى تنبّه الجميع لخطورة هذا الخلط والتهاون والتراخي. أما التوضيح الثاني فطال انتخابات كيان الاحتلال، حيث جرى تصوير كلام المقاومة عن صلة مساعي رئيس حكومة الاحتلال بنيامين نتنياهو للتصعيد بمطامعه السلطوية والانتخابية، كأنه انحياز من المقاومة لمنافسيه واعتبار إسقاطه أولوية، ودعوة غير مباشرة للناخبين العرب للمشاركة في الانتخابات تحقيقاً لهدف عنوانه، إسقاط نتنياهو. فقال السيد، الانتخابات لا تعنينا، فكلهم قتلة وكلهم صهاينة وكلهم عنصريون، وكلهم في معسكر العدو.

– انطلق السيد لرسم معادلاته، وهو يرسمها باسم قيادة محور المقاومة، من طهران إلى بغداد إلى دمشق وبيروت وغزة وصنعاء، والمعادلات الجديدة تطال كل منهج التهديد بالعقوبات والتلويح بالحرب، وعنوانها أن العقوبات لن تغيّر شيئاً في موازين القوى مهما اشتدت وزادت قسوة، وأن الرد عليها سيكون مزيداً من التصعيد في الميدان، أسوة بعمليات إسقاط الطائرة الأميركية، وعملية أفيفيم، وعملية أرامكو، لكن الواضح أن الأولوية في قراءة المحور، ليست باعتبار الساحة الأشد زجاجية التي تشكل الخاصرة الرخوة لمحور واشنطن هي ساحة الخليج، بل أكثر لأن محور المقاومة ليس معنياً بتسويات تحفظ ماء الوجه لكل من واشنطن وتل أبيب، بينما هو مستعدّ لمنح هذه الفرصة لحكومات الخليج التي تتلقى التحذير من العواقب الكارثية لاستخدامها أكياس رمل في الحرب الأميركية الصهيونية بوجه محور المقاومة وشعب اليمن، لكنها تتلقى سلّماً للنزول عن الشجرة عنوانه، وقف الحرب على اليمن، لتتفادى البقاء كيس ملاكمة يتلقى الضربات بالنيابة عن واشنطن وتل أبيب. لكن المعادلة شاملة كل الجبهات، ولكل المتورطين في الحروب الأميركية الصهيونية في واشنطن وتل أبيب كما في الخليج، أوقفوا حروبكم قبل أن تخبزوا بالفراح .

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Resistance report: Syrian Army takes the initiative in Idlib while Washington blames its failures on Iran again

Resistance report: Syrian Army takes the initiative in Idlib while Washington blames its failures on Iran again

September 20, 2019

By Aram Mirzaei for The Saker Blog

August was an eventful month for the Syrian Army and its allies as the battle for northwestern Syria saw a breakthrough after months of static frontline movements. Just like in the previous 3 years, the month of August has been one accompanied by important victories for Damascus. The Syrian Army managed to break through the jihadist lines at the Khan Sheikhoun front and from there steamrolled through the entire frontline, eventually encircling and trapping the jihadist militants in a pocket in northern Hama. Despite counteroffensives launched by Tahrir Al-Sham and their allies from the “Rouse the believers” operations room, the SAA managed to hold on to the newly liberated areas.

With this development, Hama city and Christian towns such as Mhardeh are now safe from the encroaching jihadist threat. This offensive should be expanded now that the Syrian Army still has the initiative, especially with the jihadist morale still shaken by the loss of their doorway into Hama. It is important for Damascus to clear out the remainder of the Latakia province as well as western Aleppo since both these areas are heavily populated and hold strategic value. If Latakia and Aleppo are cleared, then the jihadist threat will be contained to a single province in the country, leaving them pretty much besieged in Idlib as Ankara’s support seems to be fading, as evident by their passiveness during the Syrian Army’s August offensive.

Since the conclusion of the offensive, with a new ceasefire having been declared and expired, the Syrian Army is said to be amassing troops near the Al-Ghaab front in a potential move to completely kick the jihadists out of Hama and thereby finally paving the way for the liberation of Jisr Al-Shughour. This news seems to have been expected by the Jihadists as the Jaysh Al-Izza terrorist outfit has already begun making preparations for the upcoming battle, reportedly sending over 2000 men to the Western Hama countryside. The Syrian Army would do well to be careful here as the key hilltop town of Kabani, overlooking Jisr Al-Shughour still hasn’t been liberated.

Meanwhile, last weekend saw more than half of Saudi Arabia’s oil production go down in flames as the Saudi Aramco oilfields and refineries came under heavy drone attacks. The attacks caused the greatest drop in oil production in history, prompting oil prices to jump 19 percent. If oil prices rise further, the world will inch closer to a global recession, which, among other things, could cost Trump his reelection. Immediately after the attacks, the Yemeni Houthis issued a statement where they took responsibility for the attacks with the movement’s spokesperson General Yahya Sare’e adding that 10 drones were deployed against the sites at Khurais and Abqaiq. “This was one of the largest operations which our forces have carried out deep inside Saudi Arabia. It came after careful intelligence and cooperation with honorable and free people inside Saudi Arabia,” he said without elaboration.

Washington was quick to dismiss the Houthi claim of responsibility when Trump said that Washington has “reason to believe that we know the culprit,” noting that Washington is “locked and loaded depending on verification” and is waiting to “hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack.” The same response was voiced by Pompeo and Lindsey Graham who called for Washington to strike Iran in an attempt to “break the regime’s back”.

Surely Washington understands how embarrassing this debacle is for them. The Saudis have spent hundreds of billions of dollars on purchasing US military equipment and weapons. Equipment and weapons that Washington has spent quite some time claiming is superior to anything else the world has to offer. Last week, a Saudi prince took to twitter and claimed that Saudi Arabia could “destroy Iran in 8 hours”, adding that Iran’s military technology belong to the “museum”.

That same claimed superior weaponry failed to stop a single attack that took out half of the kingdom’s oil production. This makes me wonder if they’re laying the blame on Iran in order to cover up the even greater embarrassment, that American and Saudi military forces and their networks of advanced air defenses never detected the Yemeni drones that were launched on Saturday to strike oil facilities deep inside Saudi Arabia, proving futile the billions of dollars that the Riyadh regime has spent on them to protect its territories. What message does this send to US vassals around the world? In an attempt to downplay the uselessness of the Patriot system, Pompeo, sounding surprised by the vastness of the operation, said: “This is an attack of a scale we’ve just not seen before.”

Really? Never seen before? So the thousands of drone strikes that Washington has launched across the Islamic world is something that they’ve never seen before?

In any case, Pompeo immediately traveled to Riyadh to assure Washington’s vassals that everything is under control, and to discuss “potential responses”, calling the incident “an act of war”. By now, this blame game has become routine, Washington keeps using the same miserable strategy of intimidation, thinking it will work at the 500th attempt.

So here we are again, another dubious incident in which Tehran is held responsible, without any evidence presented. Of course, Tehran didn’t just stand idly by while Washington made these threats, both Ayatollah Khamenei and foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif issued separate responses, vehemently denying Iran’s role in the attack and warning that any attack on Iran would spark an all out war. Khamenei also went on to talk about the importance of not falling for the failed US maximum pressure campaign, which this is all about. Speaking on Tuesday, Khamenei said entering talks with the US under the current circumstances would be tantamount to surrendering to Washington’s pressure campaign. “Negotiating would mean Washington imposing its demands on Tehran. It would also be a manifestation of the victory of America’s maximum pressure campaign,” he noted.

Thus, the Islamic Republic has correctly calculated that Washington’s maximum pressure campaign is nothing but a bluff to intimidate Iran into entering negotiations. Khamenei said “I had already said that America’s objective of [pursuing] talks is to impose [its demands], but they have become so insolent that they even speak about this openly.”

“The US regime is after making its domestic rivals and the Europeans accept this as a definitive policy that maximum pressure is the only way to confront Iran,” added Ayatollah Khamenei. “Their objective in [offering to hold] talks is to prove to everyone that the policy of maximum pressure has yielded results, and that Iranian authorities were forced to come to the negotiating table despite what they said.”

The most probable conclusion is that there won’t be a war. Washington knows very well that it cannot afford a regional war, especially not now when Washington has been exposed for not being able to defend its vassals. If indeed Iran was behind this attack, then one can imagine that if a single drone strike took out half of Saudi Arabia’s oil production, imagine what an all-out war would result in for Washington and its vassals. The consequences of this debacle can be very severe for Washington in the future as Moscow has already offered the Arab states to purchase Russian weaponry instead, slowly outmanoeuvring Washington as was the case with Turkey and the S-400 deal. It is a real pathetic mess that Washington has got itself into. Washington’s own allies won’t even back their lies. “We are not aware of any information that points to Iran,” Japan’s Defense Minister Taro Kono told reporters at a briefing on Wednesday.

“We believe the Houthis carried out the attack based on the statement claiming responsibility,” he added, referring to the Yemeni group incorporated into the armed forces fighting back a Saudi-led war on Yemen.

Washington’s list of options grows thin, the US better retract its words, repent and return to the nuclear accord that it has violated or see itself fall even further into decay as Washington’s days of being the sole unipolar power that everyone used to fear are quickly fading away.

Sayyed Nasrallah to Al Saud: Any US War on Iran Will Destroy You

September 20, 2019

Capture

Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah Friday stressed that the drone attack launched by the Yemeni army and popular committees on Aramco facilities left international repercussions, pointing out that oil is unfortunately viewed as more valuable than human blood by many political forces.

Delivering a speech during Hezbollah memorial ceremony of senior Lebanese cleric Sheikh Hussein Kourani, Sayyed Nasrallah said that five years of crimes against the Yemeni men, women and children could not shake the world, calling on all who condemned Aramco attacks to denounce Saudi-led atrocities in Yemen.

His eminence also advised Al Saud royals to reconsider their geopolitical calculations, stressing that any US war on Iran will destroy them.

Hezbollah leader emphasized that if Saudi and UAE stop their war on Yemen, they will not be in need of squandering more money to fund it and buying the costly defense systems against the drone attacks which, in turn, will inflict heavy losses upon both of them.

Those who live in glass house must calm down and review their stance, Sayyed Nasrallah said in reference to the glass towers in several Gulf cities.

Sayyed Nasrallah also called on KSA and the United Arab Emirates to avoid betting on any US war on Yemen, stressing that President Donald Trump is blackmailing both of them to seize more of their financial fortune.

“US President Donald Trump pleads the Iranian President Sheikh Hasan Rouhani to hold a bilateral meeting.”

Israeli Elections

Hezbollah Secretary General stressed that the results of the Israeli elections indicate that the entity is aging and suffering from a deep leadership crisis, adding that all the Zionist leaders possess the same hostile spirits against the Arabs and that the Islamic Resistance has identical attitudes towards all of them.

Sayyed Nasrallah stressed Benjamin Netanyahu desperately tried to win the elections and keep as a prime minister by attacking Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Gaza and pledging the annexation of the occupied West Bank, adding that his failure came despite the unprecedented US support (Deal of the Century, embassy move, acknowledging the ‘Israeli sovereignty’ on Golan).

His eminence further called on Syria’s Qusair locals displaced to Lebanon to return to their town, adding that Hezbollah and the Syrian government took all the measures which secure their return.

Sayyed Nasrallah recalled his stance in which he denied any Hezbollah intention to cause a demographic change in Syria, stressing that Qusair town is one of the samples the prove the inaccuracy of such accusations.

Source: Al-Manar English Website

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الغربُ المسعور يطبّقُ وصية عبد العزيز!

Image result for ‫عبد العزيز فلسطين‬‎

سبتمبر 20, 2019

د. وفيق إبراهيم

تتجاهل الدول الغربية أن العدوان السعودي الاماراتي المغطى اميركياً على اليمن، هو سبب القصف الذي تتعرّض له الاهداف العسكرية والاقتصادية في السعودية.

فترهنُ الاحداث المتتابعة في الخليج لمصلحة توجيه الاتهام وحصره بإيران لأنها دولة محورية تعادي النفوذ الاميركي والكيان الإسرائيلي ولها شبكة تحالفات في معظم دول المنطقة، لذلك يتغاضى الأميركيون عن اعلان دولة صنعاء مسؤوليتها عن قصف مصفاتي بقيق وخريص مركزين المسؤولية الحصرية لإيران، وهذه تتمة لمزاعم غربية وسعودية تعتبر منذ عقد تقريباً ان انصار الله اليمنيين والحشد الشعبي العراقي وحزب الله اللبناني هم ميليشيات إيرانية وسط تجاهل عالمي للحرب اليمنية حرصاً من الدول الكبرى على مصالحها مع السعودية اكبر مصدر نفطي في العالم.

هناك اذاً محاولات غربية أميركية لاستثمار قصف المصفاتين السعوديتين بخطة تقضي بحماية المراكز المحلية للنفوذ الغربي في منطقة الخليج وجوارها.

لكن المدهش أن الخطة الغربية تبدو وكأنها تطبيق لنصيحة عبد العزيز آل سعود لأولاده التي دعاهم فيها لإضعاف دائم لليمن والعراق.

Image result for ‫وصية عبد العزيز اليمن‬‎

هذا الغرب الاميركي الاوروبي المتجاهل مأساة اليمن يركز على ثلاث نقاط: تفتيت العراق الى دول مستقلة أو كانتونات، شرذمة اليمن الى دول او كانتونات متصارعة، اما النقطة الثالثة التي تبدأ بتطبيقها فتركز على منع أي تقارب سوري عراقي يؤدي الى فتح الحدود بينهما، وهذه من المحرمات الكبرى.

لكن تطبيق هذه الآليات يحتاج الى شعار كبير، هو الخطر الإيراني ومعادلة جامعة هي أمن الملاحة في الخليج والبحر الاحمر، فهذا كافٍ لتجميع المهتمين بثروات النفط والغاز على المستوى العالمي ومعهم انظمة دول النفط وبعض تحالفاتها العربية، لذلك سارعت كل من السعودية والإمارات الى اعلان انضمامها الى تحالف أمن الملاحة في الخليج في حركة تحشيد سياسية هدفها إضفاء شرعية خليجية على حلف غربي لا يزال يعمل لإعادة ترسيخ نتائج الحرب العالمية الثانية للاستحواذ الدائم على ما وفرت له من مغانم اقتصادية واستراتيجية.

ضمن هذه المعطيات تبدو الحرب السعودية على اليمن مرشحة للاستمرار بالوتيرة نفسها لأسباب تتعلق بتبرير العودة الغربية الى المنطقة، كما ان استعداء إيران على مستوى حوربة لا تؤدي الى حرب مطلوب ايضاً لاستمرار تمرير الذريعة الغربية التي تزعم انها تدافع عن المنطقة من هذا الخطر.

أين الخطر اذاً؟ فمنطقة الخليج مزروعة بالقواعد الاميركية وتخضع لسياسات البيت الابيض على نظام السمع والطاعة من دون أي تذمر؟ هذا الجديد يذهب نحو إيلاء العراق أهمية قصوى على اساس منعه من تعزيز وحدته الداخلية، ما يبقيه ضعيفاً واهناً تتحارب مناطقه الداخلية فتعطل حركته الخارجية، وهذه من نصائح المؤسس عبد العزيز.

العراق اذاً هو محور الحركة الغربية الحالية التي تنفذها أربع جهات: الاميركيون الذين يمتلكون عشر قواعد عسكرية فيه، وبعض القوى الداخلية المستفيدة من إضعاف العراق في كردستان والوسط وبعض المناطق الأخرى في الجنوب، و إسرائيل التي بدأت بتنظيم قصف متدرج بطائرات مسيرة على خط حدوده مع سورية.

لجهة الطرف الرابع فهو السعودية التي تعمل على تطوير تدخلها السياسي في العراق الى استهدافات نوعية عسكرية بتغطية أميركية إسرائيلية. وهذا مؤكد من خلال قصف جوي استهدف منذ يومين بعض انحاء محافظة الأنبار وتبين انه سعودي بذريعة استئصال ارهاب موجود في هذه النواحي، علماً ان العراق كان أعلن منذ يومين ايضاً عن فتح نقطة عبور مع السعودية عبر حدوده في الأنبار.

ان التبرير السعودي لهذا القصف غير منطقي. ويقول إن جهات إرهابية إيرانية تسللت الى الأنبار وقصفت المصفاتين السعوديتين من اراضيه.

هذه واحدة من الروايات السعودية الى جانب مزاعم ثانية تدّعي ان الرياض بصدد تحديد دقيق لمواقع القصف في الشمال، بما يشمل إيران ايضاً وربما الكويت.

العراق اذاً في جهاته الحدودية معرض لاستهدافات سعودية وإسرائيلية بأشكال مختلفة، لكن ردود فعله ممنوعة بسبب العرقلة الأميركية التي تسيطر على جزء من قواه الداخلية السياسية وتستعملها لمنع انتاج عراق قويّ، لذلك يعتبر الاميركيون ان منع التنسيق بين سورية والعراق مهمة استراتيجية يؤدي تحقيقها الى استمرار النفوذ الأميركي الكامل على المشرق العربي. وهذا ما يفسّر القصف المجهول تارة والأميركي طوراً والاسرائيلي في معظم الاحيان والسعودي المستجد على مناطق الحدود السورية العراقية، فخطورة هذا التنسيق استراتيجية وليست سياسية آنية، لأن ولادة معادلة من البحر المتوسط حتى مياه الخليج تجاور تركيا وإيران والخليج لهي من الكبائر التي لا يتحمّلها الجيوبوليتيك الاميركي، هذا بالاضافة الى انها تشكل بديلاً للانهيار المصري وبوسعها إعادة انتاج نظام عربي وازن يعيد للمنطقة شيئاً كبيراً من توازنها المسحوق اميركياً واسرائيلياً، ألم يعلن الرئيس المصري السيسي في مؤتمر علني منذ اسبوع فقط، ان الشرق لا يساوي شيئاً من دون سورية متهماً جهات عربية ودولية بمحاولة تفجيرها.

إن هذه المعطيات تكشف أن الحروب على اليمن والعراق وسورية وتحريم التنسيق بينهما، هي الاهداف الاساسية للعودة الغربية الى منطقة الشرق الاوسط وبحارها، فتحقيق هذه الأهداف يكفي لتحديد نتائج الحرب العالمية الثانية التي أخضعت الشرق بكامله لهيمنة غربية سجنته في كهوف التخلف.

فهل هذا ممكن وقابل للتجدد؟

صمود سورية وإصرار العراق على الخروج من بقايا السجن الاميركي وإدراك صواريخ اليمن لعمق معادلة الغرب في السعودية وانتقال إيران الى مستوى دول القرار، هي عوامل تؤكد ان الحرب العالمية الثانية ولت الى غير رجعة، مقابل تشكل منطقة جديدة يعمل اهلها على تحريرها من بقايا المستعمرين ومعهم الكيان الاسرائيلي وحلفاؤهم من عرب الانحطاط.

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Saudi Arabia up in Flames: Riyadh Is Headed for a Major Disaster

Image result for Saudi Arabia up in Flames: Riyadh Is Headed for a Major Disaster
Federico Pieraccini
September 19, 2019

On Saturday September 14, Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced that they had conducted a massive attack on several Aramco plants in Saudi Arabia, including the largest oil refinery in the world in Abqaiq, using 10 drones. On Twitter, dozens of videos and photos showed explosions, flames and the resulting damage.

The move is part of a retaliatory campaign by the Houthis in response to the indiscriminate bombings conducted by the Saudi air force over more than four years. UN estimates speak of more than 100,000 deaths and the largest humanitarian crisis since the Second World War.

The Saudi kingdom finds itself in an increasingly dangerous situation as a result of the retaliatory capacity of the Houthis, able to inflict severe military and economic damage on Riyadh with their missile forces. Estimates suggest that Riyadh is losing something in the region of $300 million a day from the Houthi attacks. On Sunday September 15, a spokesman for the Saudi oil ministry spoke of damage that is yet to be calculated, possibly requiring weeks of repair. Meanwhile, Saudi oil production has halved following the Saturday attack. With a military budget of $200,000, the Houthis managed to inflict damage numbering in the billions of dollars.

House of Saud Isolated

The withdrawal of Egypt and the United Arab Emirates from the conflict in Yemen, driven by their desire to improve relations with Tehran, and the impossibility of the United States intervening directly in the conflict, has created significant problems for the House of Saud. The conflict is considered by the UN to be the largest humanitarian crisis in the world, and Trump has no intention of giving the Democratic presidential contenders any ammunition with which to attack him. Bolton’s dismissal could be one of those Trump signals to the deep state stating that he does not intend to sabotage his re-election hopes in 2020 by starting a new war.

This reluctance by Washington to directly support Israel and Saudi Arabia has aggravated the situation for Riyadh, which now risks seeing the conflict move to its own territory in the south of the country. The Houthi incursions into Saudi Arabia are now a daily event, and as long as Riyadh continues to commit war crimes against innocent Yemeni civilians, the situation will only worsen, with increasingly grave consequences for the internal stability of the Saudi system.

Saturday’s retaliation is the real demonstration of what could happen to the Saudi economy if Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) refuses to sit down and negotiate a way out of one of the worst military disasters of the contemporary era.

The invincibility of US weapons systems is only in Hollywood movies

The Houthis have in recent months managed to strike their targets in Saudi Arabia dozens of times using different aerial means. This highlights once again the total failure of American air-defense systems in the country.

In contrast, the multiple Russian anti-aircraft systems in Syria have achieved a 100% success rate with regard to interceptions, managing to disable (through electronic warfare) all the drones, mortars and missiles launched by jihadists against Russia’s bases in Tartus bases and Latakia.

Blame Iran!

Pompeo blames Tehran for the Yemeni attack on Saudi Arabia, of course without offering any proof. Riyadh and Tel Aviv are increasingly isolated in the Middle East. Washington is only able to offer tweets and paranoia about Iran to help its allies, given that a direct intervention is seen as being too risky for the global economy, not to mention the possibility of the conflict becoming a wider regional conflagration that would sink any chance of reelection in 2020 for the present administration.

Trump, Netanyahu and MBS are concocting a witches’ brew that will bring about a disaster of unprecedented proportions to the region. It is only a matter of time before we see the baleful consequences of their handiwork.

A hypothesis to be discarded

There is some talk doing the rounds that the Saudis conducted a false-flag attack on their own oil refineries, a hypothesis that enjoys a superficial plausibility. The resulting increase in the price of oil could be seen as having a positive effect on Aramco’s share price, it is true. But for the reasons given below, this hypothesis is actually not plausible.

The Houthis develop their own weapons, assisted by the Yemeni army. Used drones would cost less than $20,000 a piece. The military embargo on Yemen (enforced by the US and UK) has created a humanitarian disaster, limiting food and medicine. The delivery of weapons by sea therefore seems unlikely. As repeatedly stated by Mohammad Javad Zarif, the foreign minister of Iran, as well as representatives of Ansarullah, Tehran has no influence on the Houthis.

The Yemeni response is part of an increasing asymmetric logic, which has as its primary objectives the halt to Riyadh’s bombings of Yemen by increasing the costs of doing so such that they become unsustainable. The obvious pressure point is the 20 billion barrels in strategic reserves.

There is no need for a false flag to blame Iran for the work of the Houthis. The corporate media is enough to have the false accusations repeated without the help of the Israelis or US-based neocons.

The Saudis are more cautious, even if unable to decide how to proceed. In Yemen, they have no more cards to play: they do not want to sit down and deal with Ansarullah, Tehran is unassailable, while Tel Aviv is pushing for a conflict, with Riyadh offered to be sacrificed.

I have been writing for months that, sooner or later, an event will occur that will change the regional balance in a possible conflict with Iran. This happened on Saturday, when half of Saudi Arabia’s oil production was brought to a halt by an attack.

Conclusion

There could not be any worse news for the neocons, Wahhabis and Zionists. If the Houthis could inflict such damage using 10 drones, then Tel Aviv, Riyadh and Washington must be having conniptions at the thought of what the Iranians would be capable of doing in the event that they themselves were attacked.

Any power (in this case the US and their air-defense systems) and its close ally would do everything to avoid suffering such a humiliation that would only serve to reveal their military vulnerabilities.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s visit to Moscow is seen by many in Israel as a failure. It is confirmed in Tel Aviv that the Zionist state’s recent attacks in Syria have been quashed by Russian intervention, sending an unambiguous message to Netanyahu.

Netanyahu and MBS, I reiterate, are heading towards the political abyss. And given their inability to handle the situation, they will do everything in their power to draw Washington into their plans against Iran.

It is all certainly vain. But in the coming weeks, I expect further provocations and tensions in the Middle East.

The Ansarullah’s Aramco Drone Strike versus “The Real Act of War” against Yemen

Global Research, September 19, 2019

Pompeo’s provocative pronouncement that the Ansarullah’s drone strike on Aramco’s oil facilities was an “act of war” is extremely hypocritical because it ignores the fact that the Saudis were the ones to initiate the international dimension of the War on Yemen as part of the US’ long-running Hybrid War on Iran, and any conventional US and/or Saudi attack against the Islamic Republic in response to its alleged involvement in the attack would amount to an “act of war” against the entire world due to the global economic consequences that such a move would very likely trigger.

US Secretary of State Pompeo provocatively described the Ansarullah’s drone strike on Aramco’s oil facilities last weekend as an “act of war“, thus making many observers fear that his country and the Saudis are plotting a reciprocal response against them and their Iranian political supporters that both also blame for complicity in the attack, therefore potentially leading to a larger regional conflict. There are reasons to doubt that such a scenario will actually transpire, but the arguments thereof will be explained after elaborating on the hypocrisy of the “act of war” pronouncement.

It was the Saudis, not the Ansarullah, that initiated the international dimension of the War on Yemen out of their serious concern that this rebel group’s rapid successes in the neighboring country would eventually lead to their Iranian rival making military inroads on their doorstep (whether conventional or more likely unconventional) if its political allies captured control of the coast. The Saudis, however, sold their intervention to the public as an attempt to restore Hadi’s internationally recognized government to power following his request for military assistance to this end, which was technically true but didn’t officially touch on the Iranian angle even though the authorities have since emphasized it to the extreme.

Seeing as how no evidence has emerged in the past 4,5 years to corroborate the Saudis’ suspicions about Iran’s future plans to tilt the regional balance of power against it in the event that the Ansarullah were to have taken full control of Yemen, it can be said that their formal intervention was predicated on the concept of “preemptive war” to offset that seemingly impending scenario that they convinced themselves (whether rightly or wrongly) was on the brink of unfolding had they not actively thwarted it. Critics allege that perspective is nothing more than the paranoid delusions of a crumbling Kingdom, but it should be pointed out that Iran has never made a secret of exporting its Islamic Revolution, with its justification for going on the counter-offensive against Iraq in the First Gulf War of the 1980s being a case in point that continues to send chills down the back of its royalist rivals. They, however, weren’t completely innocent in that sense either because they fully supported Iraq’s war of aggression against Iran, as did many other countries in the world at that time including interestingly also the US and USSR. The reason why so many feared the Islamic Revolution is because it presented a credible “third way” for Muslim countries to follow in the Old Cold War and thus upset bipolarity.

To simplify a very complex series of events, the 1979 Islamic Revolution set off a regional — and to an extent, even a global — security dilemma that continues to influence International Relations to this day, most recently when forming the implied basis behind the Saudis’ “preemptive” War on Yemen that eventually led to the Ansarullah asymmetrically responding out of self-defense through their massive drone strike against Aramco’s oil facilities last weekend. Even in the unlikely event that Iran somehow contributed to the attack through logistics, military, or other forms of support like the US and Saudi Arabia allege, that wouldn’t change the fact that it would have been a response to the Hybrid War that those two have been incessantly waging against it since 1979 and which markedly intensified in nearly the past 1,5 years since the imposition of the anti-Iranian sanctions. Even so, many observers fear that the US and Saudi Arabia are prepared to strike (back at?) Iran and ominously climb the conventional escalation ladder to dangerously new heights, but while that certainly can’t be discounted, there are valid reasons for arguing that it probably won’t happen owing to Iran’s control of the asymmetrical escalation one that could impose unacceptable costs to them and the world if that ever occurs.

Irrespective of whether there really was a secret Iranian hand behind the Aramco attack or not, few doubt that the country has the drone and missile capabilities to turn that incident into child’s play and carry out something far more devastating if it were ever attacked. The US’ Patriot missiles failed to intercept the Ansarullah’s ten drones, revealing a glaring regional security shortcoming that therefore means that practically every oil processing facility in the Gulf is vulnerable to this sort of attack unless they’re able to rapidly improve their defensive capabilities, which can’t realistically happen for some time even if they were to purchase Russia’s S-400s and anti-drone equipment to complement or partially replace their inefficient American systems. World-renowned geopolitical analyst Pepe Escobar is correct in predicting that

“The real reason there would be no ships traversing the Strait of Hormuz (author’s note: if the US and Saudi Arabia attack Iran) is that there would be no oil in the Gulf left to pump. The oil fields, having been bombed, would be burning”, which would collapse the Gulf economies and also instantly trigger the world’s worst economic crisis in history.

With this in mind, a US-Saudi strike on Iran would be an actual “act of war” against both their target itself and the rest of the world.

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This article was originally published on OneWorld.

Andrew Korybko is an American Moscow-based political analyst specializing in the relationship between the US strategy in Afro-Eurasia, China’s One Belt One Road global vision of New Silk Road connectivity, and Hybrid Warfare. He is a frequent contributor to Global Research.

Le Monde Describes Yemeni Attack on Saudi’s Aramco as Terrible Humiliation to Bin Salman

Source

September 19, 2019

The French Newspaper Le Monde considered that the raid on two major Saudi facilities, which Riyadh ‘blamed on Tehran’, was a humiliation and an affront to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the nationalist brigade.

In a report by veteran reporter Benjamin Bart, the paper said Saudi Arabia is now embarrassed, and hopes today that the propaganda film it published in 2017 describing its overwhelming response to Tehran, was not filmed at all.

Bart says the video he has seen so far has seen more than 1.5 million people mimic a video game that Saudi Arabia is occupying Iran and destroying its military bases, before Revolutionary Guards commanders can confront invading forces or fire any bullet, all with cheers from the Iranian people and welcoming King Salman’s soldiers.

Bart said that the Saudi press at the time described the scenario of this propaganda video as “realistic”, starting with a speech by Mohammed bin Salman, saying: “We will not wait for the arrival of war in Saudi Arabia, we will ensure that the battle is taking place inside Iran itself.”

Terrible humiliation

Under the title “Terrible Humiliation,” Bart said that the tone of this film was characterized by recklessness, chauvinism and impulsivity, which revealed a hardening of Saudi diplomacy against Iran, and its aggressive stiffness, a turn embodied by the young crown prince, the architect of the war on Yemen, who believes that confronting Iran is necessary because of Intervention in Arab affairs, according to the author.

But less than two years after the publication of the film, the reality is striking, but contrary to what the writers of the screenplay had coveted, the Saudi air defense system could not respond to an attack on the Kingdom’s largest refinery, Abqaiq and the nearby Khuwairis oil field. On Saturday, September 14, it was a terrible insult to the crown prince, the patron of Saudi nationalism, the writer said.

“This is a severe blow to the credibility of Saudi Arabia in the face of Westerners,” Bart was quoted as saying by a well-known foreign businessman in Riyadh.

The operation, which the US State Department has accused Iran of being behind and halving Saudi oil production, is a real pretext for war.

However, Bart says Saudi Arabia does not really want to go to war with its ‘big enemy’, and, apart from the video’s promises, bin Salman seems to have gone into hiding for the time being and refraining from pointing fingers at Tehran, even if no one is in Riyadh. Suspected of being involved.

Sizing bin Salman

“What happened on Saturday was a big shock and an insult to Saudi Arabia,” Bart told a Saudi journalist. “No one imagined that Iran would dare to strike. Bin Salman is in an unenviable position. He finds himself alone today against Iran.”

Neither the United States wants to go to war with Iran, nor Riyadh’s other ally, Saudi Arabia, and the Saudi media are simply counting the phone calls Saudi Arabia has received since the day of the attack, but in fact no country is ready to engage in a confrontation with Iran. Jasmine Farouk, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment.

Analysts do not expect the US military response to go beyond an electronic attack or deploy more anti-missile systems. In fact, according to one expert in Saudi affairs, “Bin Salman is in a strategic dilemma, because he does not have the necessary resources for his political ambitions,” according to Barth’s report.

In the end, Bart questioned whether King Salman would take this opportunity to reframe his crown prince and curtail his role, noting that what King Salman would say in this regard will give an idea of the extent of weakness suffered by Mohammed bin Salman.

Source: Websites

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