«استراتيجية الخروج» من اليمن: الإمارات تستغيث بإيران

 وفيق قانصوه

الخميس 11 تموز 2019

 طهران ترفض عرضاً إماراتياً للانسحاب: تخطّيتم الخطوط الحمر 

 «أنصار الله» لأبو ظبي: سنحيّد منشآتكم الحيوية 

 إبن راشد لإبن زايد: صاروخ يمني واحد في دبي يدمّر كل ما بنيناه

 

«الإمارات تنسحب من اليمن». حتى اللحظة، يجري التعامل مع الحدث الذي أُعلِن قبل أيام بالكثير من التشكيك. لكن المعلومات المستقاة من مصادر واسعة الاطلاع تُظهر قراراً استراتيجياً اتخذه حكام أبو ظبي نتيجة التهديد بوصول الحريق إلى داخل «دارِهم». ولأجل إبعاد هذه الكأس عنهم، استنجدوا بطهران وموسكو

«لا شيء لدينا نتفاوض حوله معكم بعدما تخطّيتم الخطوط الحمر». كان هذا الرد الحاسم الذي سمعه وفد أمني إماراتي رفيع المستوى زار طهران قبل أسابيع قليلة، عقب التفجيرات التي استهدفت سفناً تجارية وناقلات نفط في ميناء الفجيرة الاماراتي في 12 أيار الماضي.

الوفد الرفيع (الذي يتردد أنه زار طهران مرتين) حمل معه، وفق مصادر دبلوماسية مطلعة، ما اعتقد الاماراتيون يومها أنه «عرض لا يُقاوم». ثلاثة بنود واضحة: الأول، إعادة العلاقات بين البلدين إلى طبيعتها. الثاني، تأمين حماية مشتركة من البلدين للممرات البحرية لتأمين تدفق النفط من كل الدول المطلّة على الخليج. الثالث، والأهم: نحن مستعدون لمغادرة اليمن!

لم ييأس الاماراتيون بعد الردّ الايراني الصارم، فتوسّلوا وساطة روسية مع طهران اثناء زيارة وزير الخارجية الاماراتي عبدالله بن زايد لموسكو في 25 حزيران الماضي. لكن الجواب كان واحداً: لا شيء لدينا لنفاوض حوله. كان واضحاً لدى الايرانيين أن أبو ظبي تبحث عن «استراتيجية خروج» من المستنقع اليمني، وتريد بيعها. بضاعة كاسدة كهذه لا تُسوّق في بازار طهران، «ويمكنهم أن يخرجوا كما دخلوا».

ولكن، ما هي خلفيات هذا التحوّل الاماراتي؟

(أرشيف)

بصرف النظر عمّن يقف خلف هجوم ميناء الفجيرة الواقع على خليج عُمان (جنوب مضيق هرمز)، بدا واضحاً للجميع أن أي حظر على تصدير النفط الايراني يعني ان الدول الخليجية لن تكون قادرة على تصدير نفطها متجاوزة السيطرة الايرانية على المضيق. قُرئ الهجوم على انه تحدّ غير مسبوق واستفزاز افترضت الرياض وأبو ظبي انه سيشعل شرارة الحرب الأميركية المنتظرة على الجار الايراني المزعج. خيّبت واشنطن هذه الآمال، تماماً كما خيّبتها بعد إسقاط قوات الدفاع الجوي التابعة للحرس الثوري طائرة تجسس أميركية في 20 حزيران الماضي. أُريد للحدثين أن يشكّلا زلزال «14 شباط ايراني» على شاكلة زلزال «14 شباط اللبناني» (اغتيال رئيس الحكومة اللبناني رفيق الحريري)، وما تلاه من تغييرات اقليمية ودولية. لكن الأميركي كان في واد آخر.

أدرك الاماراتيون أن الأميركيين إذا لم يهاجموا ايران الآن فقد لا يهاجمونها أبداً. لذا جاءت انعطافة أبو ظبي الأخيرة «بالانتقال من استراتيجية القوة العسكرية أولاً إلى استراتيجية السلام أولاً»، بعد أربع سنوات ونصف سنة من انخراطها في الحرب على الشعب اليمني. إرهاصات القرار بدأت مع زيارة وزير الخارجية الاماراتي لموسكو وإعلانه أن التحقيق في حادث الفجيرة لم يشر بدقة الى الجهة الفاعلة، مشيراً الى أن بلاده غير معنية بأي تصعيد مع طهران.

وفق المصادر المطلعة، فإن «شبه الانسحاب الاماراتي هو، عملياً واستراتيجياً، قرار بالانسحاب يجري تظهيره كخروج ملطّف حتى لا تكون له تبعات الهزيمة». وقد حتمّت هذا القرار جملة اسباب، داخلية وخارجية، أولها وصول «قدرة التحمّل الاماراتية» لتبعات التورط في اليمن الى حدّها الأقصى على صعد عدة:

1) النزيف البشري الذي نجحت الامارات على مدى اربع سنوات ونصف سنة في التغطية عليه، وتمكنت أخيراً من الحد منه عبر الابتعاد عن المواجهات المباشرة واستخدام «أطر بديلة» تتمثل بمجموعات ميليشيوية يمنية جنّبت الجيش الاماراتي مزيداً من الخسائر، ولكن بعدما طالت هذه الخسائر معظم أبناء الطبقات الوسطى والفقيرة، ووصلت الى بعض أبناء العائلة الحاكمة.

2) النزيف الاقتصادي الذي بات يسبّب تململاً ليس في أبوظبي فحسب، وانما في بقية الامارات مع شعور بأن تبعات الحرب بدأت تترك تأثيرات استراتيجية على الاقتصاد القائم اساساً على التجارة والخدمات.

3) النزيف السياسي: مع التيقن بأن سقف الحرب بات مقفلاً على إمكان تحقيق انتصار واضح وناجز، وتخلخل الحلف الذي تقوده السعودية بخروج شركاء منه، شعر الاماراتيون بأنهم قادمون على تحمّل جزء أساسي من تبعات الهزيمة السياسية ويريدون تجنّب دفع جزء معتبر من هذا الثمن.

إلى ذلك، بدا أن وضع الاتحاد الاماراتي بات على المحك مع تصاعد تململ حكام الامارات الست من التماهي الكامل لرجل أبو ظبي القوي محمد بن زايد مع رجل الرياض القوي محمد بن سلمان في توتير العلاقات مع الجيران الخليجيين والجار الايراني، ومن التورط في الحرب اليمنية وأثمانها الاقتصادية. وفي المعلومات أن اجتماعاً عقد قبل أسابيع بين ثلاثي «أولاد زايد» (محمد وهزاع وطحنون) وحاكم دبي محمد بن راشد الذي تمثل إمارته «درّة النموذج الاماراتي»، أبلغهم فيه الأخير، بوضوح، أن هناك ضرورة ملحّة للخروج من هذا المستنقع. ولفت إلى ان «نزول صاروخ يمني واحد في واحد من شوارع دبي كفيل بانهيار الاقتصاد والتضحية بكل ما حققناه». كما سمع «أولاد زايد» كلاماً مماثلاً من حكام الفجيرة، أبدى فيه هؤلاء خشيتهم من ان السياسة الحالية قد تجعل إمارتهم ساحة أي معركة مقبلة، كونها واقعة على بحر عُمان، وخارج مضيق هرمز.

مصادر دبلوماسية: معلومات عن طلب إماراتي من القاهرة التوسط لإعادة تفعيل العلاقة مع دمشق

الأهم من كل ما سبق أن الاماراتيين لمسوا أن الاندفاعة اليمنية النوعية الأخيرة باتت قادرة على قلب الموازين الاستراتيجية للصراع بعد تفعيل أسلحة جديدة واستهداف منشآت حيوية كخط ينبع ومطار أبها وغيرهما، فيما أخفقت كل «الجدران الاستراتيجية» (كالباتريوت) في وجه هذه الهجمة. ووفق معلومات «الأخبار» فإن الامارات تلقّت رسالة واضحة من «أنصار الله»، بعدما لاحت بوادر انعطافتها الأخيرة، مفادها أن منشآتها الحيوية لن تكون هدفاً للقصف «ومعركتنا ستكون حصراً مع السعوديين»، ما يفسر حصر القصف الأخير بالأهداف الحساسة السعودية.

في المحصلة، تؤكد المصادر أن التحول الاماراتي «ليس مناورة. هم أخفقوا أولاً في هجوم خليفة حفتر على طرابلس الغرب. وأخيراً أيقنوا أن واشنطن ليست جاهزة لمواجهة مباشرة مع ايران». لذلك، «ستكمل الامارات استدارتها لتشمل الموقف من سوريا». وتلفت في هذا السياق الى «معلومات عن طلب إماراتي من القاهرة بالتوسط مع دمشق» لإعادة تفعيل العلاقة من حيث توقفت بعدما فرملها الأميركيون مطلع هذه السنة.

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Exhibition of Houthi military-industrial achievements

Translated by Ollie Richardson and Angelina Siard
Source: https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/5118206.html

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Exhibition of the achievements of the Houthi military industry (with a heavy Iranian accent).

New ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as new reconnaissance drones were presented.

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It is expected that these weapons, including new ones, will be used by the Houthis both on the territory of Yemen against the interventionist troops and local collaborators, as well as against infrastructure facilities in Saudi Arabia and the UAE (airports, military bases, ports, oil pipelines).

For Iran, the entire Yemeni war has become an excellent training ground, where in real combat conditions (via the hands of the Houthis) the latest samples of Iranian ballistic missiles, adjustable artillery shells, and reconnaissance and attack drone vehicles are being tested.

It is worth remembering that in the event of the start of a fully-fledged war against Iran, all of this can be used against tankers in the Red Sea in order to block oil exports through Jizan.

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MISSILES AND DRONES: A CLOSE LOOK AT HOUTHIS’ NEW WEAPONS

South Front

07.07.2019

On July 7, the Houthis unveiled new locally-manufactured missiles and drones in a small military exhibition attended by senior Yemeni officials.

Mahdi al-Mashat, the president of the Supreme Political Council, inaugurated the exhibition, which was named after his predecessor Saleh Ali al-Sammad who was assassinated by the Saudi-led coalition last year.

Other senior Yemeni officials attended the exhibition, including Yemen’s defense minister in the Houthis-affiliated government, Maj. Gen. Mohammed Nasser.

“We have reached an advanced stage in the field of military industry with Yemeni efforts and experiences and what’s yet to come will be greater and more painful [for the enemy],” Maj. Gen. Nasser told the al-Masirah TV.

During the exhibition, the Houthis showcased for the first time their Quds-1 cruise missile, Badir-F precision-guided tactical ballistic missile, as well as Samad-1, Samad-3 and Qasef-2K unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Some older weapons systems were also displayed

Quds-1 Cruise Missile

The Martyr Saleh al-Samad Exhibition for Yemeni Military Industries provided us with the first ever look at the Quds-1 cruise missile, which was used by the Houthis in at least two successful attacks.

Previously it was believed that the missile was derivative from the Iranian Soumar cruise missile, a copy of the Soviet Kh-55 cruise missile. However, the new photos reveal that the Houthis’ missile has very unique characteristics, like the top-mounted turbojet engine and the static wings.

Missiles And Drones: A Close Look At Houthis' New Weapons

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Missiles And Drones: A Close Look At Houthis' New Weapons

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Missiles And Drones: A Close Look At Houthis' New Weapons

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The missile’s engine appears to be identical to the TJ-100. The turbojet engine, that’s is produced by Czech’s PBS Velká Bíteš, is not used in any known missile. The Saudi-led coalition had showcased some the engine’s remains.

Missiles And Drones: A Close Look At Houthis' New Weapons

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The Houthis have not revealed any of the missile’s specs, so far. However, it is believed to has a range of more than 150km. As for guidance, the missile likely relays on an Inertial navigation system (INS) aided by a satellite navigation system such as GPS or GLONASS.

Furthermore, the missile could be equipped with some sort of terrain contour matching (TERCOM) system. This would allow the missile to fly on low altitude and remain undetected by the enemy’s radars.

The Quds-1 cruise missile hit the arrival terminal in Abha International Airport on June 12 with high-accuracy. The missiles was also used in the June 19 attack on the al-Shuqaiq Water Desalination and Power Plant in southwestern Saudi Arabia.

Badir-F Precision-Guided Tactical Ballistic Missile

The Houthis revealed the Badir-F precision-guided tactical ballistic missile for the first time on April 16. Despite this, the missile was showcased in the Saleh al-Samad Exhibition for Yemeni Military Industries.

Photos of the missile show that it has a bigger diameter than its predecessors, the Badir-1 and the guided Badir-1P. The missile size is closer to that of the Soviet OTR-21 Tochka. However, its design lines are completely different.

Missiles And Drones: A Close Look At Houthis' New Weapons

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Missiles And Drones: A Close Look At Houthis' New Weapons

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When the missile was first revealed, the Houthis claimed that it is guided with a range of up to 160km and that it is armed with a heavy warhead equipped with a proximity fuze. A spokesman for the Houthis said back then that the missile would explode 20 meters above the center of the designated target and would scatter some 14,000 pieces of shrapnel in a circular area with a radius of 350 meters.

The missile photos confirm some of the Houthis claims. The missile is indeed equipped with moving fins, which confirms the presence of a gaudiness system. A laser proximity fuze can be also spotted in the missile’s nose.

Missiles And Drones: A Close Look At Houthis' New Weapons

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Missiles of the Badir-F type have been used in several successful attacks on the Saudi-led coalition and its proxies since last April. The most recent attack targeted a military camp of Saudi-backed forces in the central Yemeni province of Ma’rib.

Samad-1 UAV

The Houthis also displayed in the military exhibition a previously unknown reconnaissance UAV, the Samad-1.

Missiles And Drones: A Close Look At Houthis' New Weapons

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Missiles And Drones: A Close Look At Houthis' New Weapons

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The design of Samad-1 is identical to that of Hezbollah’s Mirsad UAV. The Lebanese group displayed a UAV of this type in the Museum for Resistance Tourism in southern Lebanon last year.

Missiles And Drones: A Close Look At Houthis' New Weapons

Mirsad on display in Hezbollah’s museum. Click to see full-size image.

The Samad-1 appears to be equipped with an electro-optical reconnaissance system along with two data links, likely for control and live broadcast. The UAV is not believed to be capable of carrying weapons of any type. However, the Houthis can likely equip Samad-1 with a warhead and use it as a suicide UAV, similar to other types.

Samad-3 UAV

The third generation of the Samad UAV family was displayed for the first time. The Samad-3 design follow the same lines as the first generation. However, the UAV is equipped with what appears to be a conformal fuel tank (CFT). A unique feature that likely extends the UAV’s range in a significant way.

Missiles And Drones: A Close Look At Houthis' New Weapons

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Missiles And Drones: A Close Look At Houthis' New Weapons

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Missiles And Drones: A Close Look At Houthis' New Weapons

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Unlike the first generation, Samad-3 is a suicide UAV designed to strike targets located deep inside Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emiratis (UAE).

On July 26, 2018, the Houthis targeted Abu Dubai International Airport in the UAE with a Samad-3 UAV. The airport is located more than 1,500km away from the Houthi-held areas in western Yemen.

Qasef-2K UAV

The Saleh al-Samad Exhibition for Yemeni Military Industries provided us with the first look at the Qasef-2K UAV, which was introduced by the Houthis for the first time last January.

As many experts have expected, the Qasef-2K design is identical to that of the Qasef-1, which is a copy of the Iranian Ababil-2, according to a report of the Conflict Armament Research (CAR) group.

Missiles And Drones: A Close Look At Houthis' New Weapons

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Missiles And Drones: A Close Look At Houthis' New Weapons

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Unlike the first generation, the Qasef-2K is armed with a heavy high-explosive fragmentation [HE-FRAG] warhead that explodes 20meters over the target.

The Qasef-2K was used for the first time in an attack on a military parade of Saudi-backed forces in the southern district of al-Anad. The attack killed six personnel of Saudi-backed forces, including senior officers.

Since then, UAVs of the Qasef-2K have been used in dozens of attacks, mainly on facilities in southern Saudi Arabia.

Older weapon systems

Additionally, the Houthis showcased older weapons systems in the Saleh al-Samad Exhibition for Yemeni Military Industries.

The Scud-based Burkan-1 and Burkan-2H tactical ballistic missiles were displayed along with Badir-1 and Badir-1P artillery rocket. The Qahir-2M missile, which is based on the S-75 air defense missile, was also showcased.

Missiles And Drones: A Close Look At Houthis' New Weapons

From the bottom up, Qahir-2M, Badir-1, Badir-1P, Badir-F. Click to see full-size image

Missiles And Drones: A Close Look At Houthis' New Weapons

From lift to right, Burkan-1 and Burkan-2H. Click to see full-size image.

Furthermore, the small, electric Rasid-1 reconnaissance UAV was displayed along with the newer UAVs.

Missiles And Drones: A Close Look At Houthis' New Weapons

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Growing Capabilities

The advanced missiles and UAVs displayed by the Houthis in the Saleh al-Samad Exhibition for Yemeni Military Industries are a testimony of the Yemeni group’s ever growing offensive capabilities.

These new missiles and UAVs provide the Houthis with the ability to strike almost any target in Saudi Arabia or the UAE with a proper accuracy. A threat that the Saudi-led coalition has not taken any serious steps to address, so far.

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HOUTHIS DESTROY SEVERAL SAUDI VEHICLES IN DALI’ AND NAJRAN WITH GUIDED MISSILES (VIDEOS)

South Front

03.07.2019 

Houthi fighters destroyed several vehicles of the Saudi-led coalition and its proxies in central Yemen and southern Saudi Arabia on July 2.

The Houthis media wing released a video showing the Yemeni group’s fighters destroying an IAG Guardian armored vehicle and another unidentified vehicle of the coalition in the Kingdom’s southern province of Jizan.

In an another video, Houthis fighters can be seen destroying two pick-up trucks of Saudi-backed forces in the Yemeni province of Dali’.

The four vehicles were destroyed with anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs). The Saudi-led coalition claims that Iran is supplying the Houthis with these advanced anti-tank weapons.

In the last few months, the Saudi-led coalition and its proxies lost dozens of vehicles due to ATGM strikes, especially in Dali’. Despite these heavy losses, the coalition hasn’t adapted its tactics yet.

More on this topic:

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Russian Pundits Agree! Iran is a US Test-Run For Planned Final War Against Russia!

Source

Watch

The U.S. is using Iran to practice an attack against Russia

Semyon Bagdasarov, political analyst: “The situation in the Arabian Peninsula is very complex. Yemen’s been at war for God knows how long. Saudi Arabia hasn’t had any success. Even though they were assisted by private military companies from the US. Can a war break out? I don’t think anyone’s been making any full-scale preparations for war yet.”

Posted July 01, 2019

“Saudi Regime Won’t Be Able to Resume Flights at Abha Airport”

July 2, 2019

Yemeni drone

Yemeni drones once again targeted Abha Saudi airport at dawn on Tuesday, Yemeni Army announced.

Yemeni armed forces spokesman Brigadier General Yahya Saree said the airport was out of service following the attack on its warplanes’ runway.

“The Saudi regime won’t be able to resume flights at the targeted airports,” Saree said.

Yemen’s Al-Massirah TV quoted aerial observation centers as saying that a plane which was heading from Dammam to Abha was forced to redirect its flight to Jeddah airport due to the attack.

Yemeni forces have been in the last weeks intensifying missile and drone attacks against Saudi airports, in retaliation for the continuous Saudi-led aggression against the Arab impoverished country.

Source: Al-Massirah (translated by Al-Manar English Website)

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Nasrallah: a War against Iran would Destroy Israel, the Saud and US Hegemony

June 30, 2019

Nasrallah: a War against Iran would Destroy Israel, the Saud and US Hegemony

Speech by Hezbollah Secretary General Sayed Hassan Nasrallah on Friday, May 31, 2019, on the occasion of Al-Quds (Jerusalem) International Day.

Transcript:

[…] Today, (the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia) are focusing (their hostility) on the essential point of strength of this (Resistance) Axis. This is the next point (of my speech), namely Iran. Iran is the main power (of the Resistance Axis), no doubt about it. Iran is the heart of this Axis. It is Iran who helped Iraq during the invasion of Daesh, when (the terrorists) reached the outskirts of Karbala and Baghdad. It is Iran who helped the Syrian leadership and the Syrian army during the hard times (fighting Daesh). Iran stood alongside the Resistance in Lebanon and the Resistance in Palestine, etc., etc., etc. And Iran’s (anti-imperialist and anti-Zionist) stance is clear, unshakable and decisive. That is all.

Today, all this fury against Iran…. And it is Trump, Pompeo and the others who explicitly say so, that’s not my analysis. (They say) that besieging Iran and subjecting it to sanctions and pressures will cause all this (Resistance) Axis to weaken, collapse and disappear. And they start to count our (financial) losses, awaiting the end of each month to see if Hezbollah (is still able) to pay (the wages of its members and fighters) or not, isn’t it? All eyes are on Iran.

Yesterday, what did our brothers from (the Resistance factions) in Gaza say? They said: “Our (Arab & Islamic) Community has abandoned us, but Iran (fully) supported us. Iran helped us militarily and financially.” And that’s the truth. This is why (they put all their efforts) against Iran. They exert maximum pressure on Iran.

Against Iran, we find these same regimes who, since the first day, declared their hostility towards the Islamic Republic. From the first day of triumph (of the Revolution) of Imam Khomeini (in 1979), they planned and schemed (the downfall) of the Islamic Republic. And they kept doing so until today, for 40 years. They defamed Iran, launched false accusations against Iran, have sought to isolate Iran, incited (the Arab-Muslim peoples) against Iran… One day, they were defaming Iran by designating as Majus (Zoroastrians, non-Islamic): we all remember that the war (propaganda) of Saddam [Hussein] against Iran was based on the (alleged) fight against the Persians and the Majus. Of course, he could not claim that it was a Sunni-Shiite war, as did the Saudis, because more than half of the Iraqi people is Shiite, as well as a large part of the Iraqi army. It was not possible to present their war as a Sunni-Shiite war, so he depicted them as Majus. But the world has discovered (since) that the Iranian people is not Zoroastrian (but Muslim).

They first introduced the fight (against Iran) as a struggle of the Arabs against the Persians, and later on, they developed the battle as a Sunni-Shiite war. Then they (tried to) sell us (the risk) of the (conversion of peoples) to Shiism, be it Safavid, Alawi, etc. Finally, they came to economic sanctions, up to the threats of war culminating today.

Will there be a war or not? That is the burning issue of the day. For the last weeks, (the world) has been wondering if there will be (a new war) in the region. Of course, if there is a war between the US and Iran, the whole region will change radically. I’ll talk a little about it.

Some people push (the US) into a war with (all their) strength. That is, within the US administration —for Trump says he does not want war, but I mean others—, it is clear that Bolton pushes for war as much as he can. Bolton, the liar, the cartoon character —you remember (my joke 15 years ago about his comic looks and) his (extravagant) mustache—, what did he say yesterday? He said: “Our goal is not to overthrow the Iranian regime.” But a few months ago, during a meeting with the Iranian hypocrites (Mujahedeen-e-Khalq), he said that with the Grace of God, they all would commemorate the (Persian) New Year in Tehran in 2019 (after the regime gets toppled). What shameless (lies)! We do not forget (your previous statements), especially when they date only a few months, my friend! These are not statements that are 20 years old. They are only a few months old. These turncoats changed their story yet again! They got cold feet, to speak colloquially. I’ll tell you why they backtracked.

So there are Bolton, Bin Salman, Netanyahu and (let’s just say) other Gulf (leaders pushing for war), in order not to lengthen the list of names. Such is (the situation). They all push (for war). Anyone watching the media from the Gulf would believe that Trump is working for the Arab TV channels. (These media repeated day and night) that Trump was determined to launch a war, that it was imminent and that the US warships were on their way. (If one was to believe them), Trump was just watching these Arab television channels, and executing their orders.

I’ll start with the words of His Eminence the Imam and Leader (of the Islamic Community), Sayed Khamenei, may God preserve him. He is not a soothsayer. He is a man who has lead this Community for 30 years (according to the doctrine of Wilayat al-faqih, he is the Supreme Leader of Iran and of all Muslims worldwide), and he knows all the strategic data, all the details, all the facts and all the equations of strengths and weaknesses. And he (plainly) said that there would be no war. Neither war nor negotiations (with the US). The fact that there are no negotiations is a decision (entirely) in the hands of the Iranians (who refuse any negotiations before the end of the sanctions, despite US insistence on a meeting without preconditions). But the fact that there is no war involves everyone (the US and their allies on the one hand, Iran and its allies on the other hand). Let’s talk about the improbability of a war.

Why does (Sayed Khamenei assert that) there will be no war? Here is our analysis (of the situation). I do not pretend to present the actual reasons that made His Eminence Sayyed Khamenei say this, but our own analysis (Hezbollah’s).

First, it is the power of Iran (that prevents the possibility of a war). If there is no war, this is not due to anyone’s benevolence or generosity.  If Iran was weak, the war would have taken place long ago. The (exceptional) level of hatred, resentment, plot and conspiracy of the Arab countries, the Gulf countries, the United States, Israel and the Zionists against Iran would have already lead to a war a long time ago if Iran had been weak. It is because Iran is strong and has (huge) capabilities, through its people, its armed forces, its regime, its Leader, its religious authorities and scholars, by its general situation and its specificities, and because firstly and lastly, Iran puts its trust in God, believes in Him and in His promise, because Iran is powerful, and that’s why Iran is feared by all. Iran is feared and respected. That is the first point (which explains the improbability of a war).

Trump does not face a regime that wouldn’t hold one or two weeks or whose planes would crash (without the United States, unlike what he said about Saudi Arabia), we speak of a true power. That’s the first point. This is the first reason (of the improbability of a war).

The second reason —and (I wish) that the whole world listens my words carefully— is that Mr. Trump, his administration and his intelligence services know very well that a war against Iran would not remain limited to the borders of Iran! A war against Iran would set fire to the whole region!

[Audience: At your service, O Nasrallah!]

The whole region will be engulfed in (the) flames (of war)! And all US forces and US interests in the region will be annihilated! And all those who conspired and plotted (against Iran) will pay the price, and primarily Israel and the Saud!

[Audience: At your service, O Nasrallah!]
 
And Trump knows that when the region goes up in flames… He doesn’t care about the (tens of thousands of) deaths. I’m talking about what matters to him! When the region goes up in flames, the price of oil will reach $200, $300 or even $400, and he will lose the (2020 presidential) elections. Such is the balance of power.

When His Eminence the Leader says that there will be no war, (it means that) Iran won’t initiate a war against anybody, but if the US wants to initiate this war, they must take into account all this data in their calculations, namely the extent of human and material losses that the US will suffer if they engage in such a war. And that’s what prevents the war from occurring.

As for those wretched (Saud), they want Trump to come fight in their defense, to serve their hatreds and resentments… Hey, uncle, Trump does not work for you, you are the ones at his service! You are the ones under his thumb! It is you who are the instruments of his project, and not the opposite! (He is not serving) your ambition and your hatred! His calculations are different from yours! He counts only in millions, billions, dollars, oil… Such are his calculations, very different from yours!

Now let us make things more relaxed. Let us assume that the United States launch a war against Iran. And let’s imagine that Iran doesn’t succeed in defeating this attack, and that God forbid, the United States emerge victorious and defeat Iran. How could Trump extract the remaining billions of dollars from the Gulf countries (once the alleged Iranian threat is no more)? How? Trump uses and exploits everything in an economic and financial purpose. Iran is powerful, and Trump has no interest in the Gulf countries agreeing, talking with Iran or concluding nonaggression pacts with Iran. He has no interest in that. His interest is to continue to ensure that the Gulf countries continue to be afraid of Iran so that he can milk, milk and milk them again (of all their billions)… until the very last drop! Isn’t it ? If Trump launches this war, what will be the logic, what will be the need to sell all these missiles, all these warplanes, all these tanks, to send all these destroyers (to the Persian Gulf), to have all these bases in the region, etc. All this won’t make sense anymore. How stupid, how stupid (they are)! Such imbecility! Praise be to God !

Anyway, Trump’s priority is an economic war against Iran. And he wages an economic war against China, and even against Venezuela, which is not Iran, but his priority is still the economic war. Even against North Korea, his priority is economic warfare. Anyway, I want to mention strong indications that the probability of war has receded.

First, Trump himself, who is the decision maker, said on television that he does not want military confrontation with Iran, and that their war against Iran was economical because a military war would lead to more financial and human losses. And he categorically refuted the existence of a plan to send 120,000 American soldiers and officers in the region, and the (alleged) 120,000 soldiers have become 5,000, the 5,000 became 1,500, the 1,500 became 900, and they (ended up simply) extending the mission of the 600 US soldiers that were already present here. These are undeniable facts, isnt it?

Basically, my brothers and sisters, Trump wants to leave the region, and he insisted to leave Syria. But immediately, the CIA, the Pentagon, Congress, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE made a fuss, and all told him (in unison) that if he left Syria, the UAE and Saudi Arabia would go immediately to Damascus (to renew their relations with the regime), Damascus would come back in the Arab world, and it would strengthen Iran. So he (gave in to these pressures) and agreed to leave 200 troops in Syria.  […]

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“Any amount counts, because a little money here and there, it’s like drops of water that can become rivers, seas or oceans…” Hassan Nasrallah

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