سنة سلام سورية وولادة نظام عالمي جديد؟

سنة سلام سورية وولادة نظام عالمي جديد؟

ناصر قنديل

سنة سلام سورية وولادة نظام عالمي جديد؟

نوفمبر 22, 2017

– ليست مصادفة تلك الحركة المتزامنة بين مجموعة مسارات عسكرية وسياسية سواء في الميدان السوري أو في الاتصالات الخاصة بسورية بين قادة العالم والمنطقة، أو في التحضيرات القائمة على قدم وساق في الرياض وسوتشي للخروج بما يتناسب مع متطلبات جنيف، وفقاً لما رسم في فييتنام بين الرئيسين الروسي والأميركي، فبعد البوكمال وتحريرها وتواصل الحدود الإيرانية العراقية السورية اللبنانية، مرحلة جديدة وميزان قوى جديد. وما تلقاه الأميركيون عن قرب رحيل قواتهم من سورية بعد سقوط الذريعة، تلقاه الأكراد عن أحادية المسار السياسي لاستيعابهم، بدلاً من مغامرة معلومة النتائج يدفعون ثمنها وأمام أعينهم المثال في كردستان العراق، والأتراك تلقوا بدورهم الرسالة عن مسار سياسي ينتهي بمسؤولية الدولة السورية عن الأمن داخل حدودها، معطوفاً على لا شرعية بقاء أيّ قوة أجنبية على أرضها.

– سورية التي تنهض دولتها كطائر الفينيق من تحت الرماد، وينتصر جيشها بمعونة حلفائه وفي طليعتهم المقاومة التي شيطنتها الجامعة العربية و«إسرائيل وأميركا، هي سورية التي لا يمكن تخيّل نظام عربي جديد لا يتأثر بالمتغيّر الذي تحمله إليه، وسط تراجع سعودي في المهابة والمقدّرات، وغرق في الفشل العسكري والسياسي من اليمن إلى قطر، مقابل صعود عراقي آتٍ من رحم الإنجاز في كسر الإرهاب وإسقاط الانفصال، ومع انشغال الجميع من البار بين العرب بحروبهم، عودة جزائرية لقوة ناعمة قادرة على لعب دور الوسط، وهي بعافيتها الاقتصادية والعسكرية، ليشكل الثلاثي السوري العراقي الجزائري قوة الجذب الجديدة في النظام العربي الجديد، متجهاً نحو مصر لاستنهاضها، وتشكيل رباعي القيادة الجديدة للنظام العربي الذي يلفظ أنفاس نسخته السعودية مع البيان الأخير للجامعة العربية الإسرائيلي المضمون، كما وصفه موشي يعلون، والمترجم من العبرية إلى العربية.

– ليست مصادفة أيضاً أن يبدأ الأميركي مع التسليم بالوجهة التي تسلكها سورية، بالاستعداد للخروج في العام نفسه من أفغانستان، وقد مدّد لوجود قواته فيها ثلاثة أعوام مرّة مرّة، لأنّ رهاناته على الحرب في سورية كانت تمنحه الأمل بتغيير وجهة سورية. والرابط واضح من اليوم الأول، بلوغ الصين للبحر المتوسط عبر الحدود البرية المتصلة من أفغانستان إلى إيران فالعراق فسورية. وما دام الأمل بإغلاق الممرّ البري أمام الصين من مكان ما في الحدود بين سورية والعراق، أو في سورية نفسها، كان البقاء في أفغانستان ضرورياً، ومع تلاشي الأمل، لم يعد لهذا البقاء حاجة، وقد صار عبئاً لا يُحتمل. وفي هذه الحالة فقط يصير ممكناً طلب المعونة الصينية الكاملة في تسوية الملف النووي لكوريا الشمالية، ويصير التحرك الفرنسي بلسان أوروبا لحماية التفاهم النووي مع إيران حاجة أميركا لمخاطبة الكوريين بعدم حاجتهم للسلاح النووي أسوة بإيران، ومخاطبة الإيرانيين بعدم حاجتهم للنموذج الكوري ما دام الاتفاق بخير. وتصير هنا الأزمة اللبنانية التي فجّرها السعوديون لنيّة، فرصة للتوظيف بنيّة أخرى، وربما بنيّات، يكشفها تضمين الرئيس الفرنسي إيمانويل ماكرون للائحة اتصالاته التي شملت الرئيس الإيراني والملك السعودي والرئيس المصري، رئيس حكومة الاحتلال، فتحاً لباب ربط الأزمات تمهيداً لربط الحلول، وللمثل القائل الجمل بنيّة والحمل بنيّة والجمال بنيّة ، من دون أن يكون واضحاً مَن هو الجمل ومَن هو الجمال، إذا كان الحمل معلوماً وقد انتقل من السعودية إلى باريس، فالقاهرة في طريق العودة إلى لبنان.

– قال الرئيس الروسي فلاديمير بوتين في عام 2016 إن نظاماً عالمياً جديداً يولد من الحرب السورية، كما قالت غونداليسا رايس يوماً إنّ شرقاً أوسط جديداً يولد من رحم حرب تموز 2006. عشر سنوات حملت الكثير من المتغيّرات، كانت المقاومة، التي أرادت حرب رايس سحقها وسحق عظام قادتها لتسهيل المخاض على شرقها الأوسط الجديد، وقال السفير الروسي في بيروت إنها تستحق الشكر على دورها في تصفية دولة داعش والنصر على الإرهاب، هي الثابت الوحيد.

– 2018 سنة سلام سورية وولادة نظام عالمي جديد ونظام إقليمي جديد!

 

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How China helped depose ‘dozing despot’ Robert Mugabe after flooding Zimbabwe with billions to build hospitals, schools and even the £35million Parliament

Source: Daily Mail

As he was driven back to his opulent palace in Harare on Tuesday, surrounded by bodyguards in military fatigues and wearing motorcycle helmets, Robert Mugabe had no reason to suspect that his 37-year rule was about to end.

Having been in power since 1980, Mugabe — not to mention Grace, his high-handed, grasping second wife — thought he was invincible. Just days earlier, he beamed with satisfaction at a ceremony to change the name of Zimbabwe’s main airport to the Robert Mugabe International Airport.

He believed he would be president of the former British colony until he died, and had once proclaimed ‘not even God’ wanted his murderous reign to end. His wife, meanwhile, had called for a Mugabe family ‘dynasty’ to run the country for ever.

Slumbering: Mugabe, 93, at a graduation ceremony on Friday

But what neither knew that sunny afternoon was that Mugabe’s loyal presidential guard had been swapped for military personnel who were in league with his enemies — the very generals who had previously been loyal to the despot since he came to power after the bush war against white rule.

The first sign of any trouble was when Mugabe’s convoy arrived at his home in a suburb of the capital city, and the men accompanying him arrested the security officers on duty there.

The 93-year-old president was then hustled into the house and, a short time later, the man in charge of Zimbabwe’s armed forces arrived to break some rather bad news to Mugabe.

A fearsome individual known for his volcanic temper, General Constantino Chiwenga is one of the so-called ‘Dirty Half Dozen’ — six sinister military and intelligence chiefs whose junta has kept Mugabe in office for decades, terrorising opponents and rigging elections.

Bluntly, Chiwenga told Mugabe he was under arrest. Without uttering a word, Mugabe promptly collapsed to the floor.

‘He was in shock, and collapsed when he realised what was happening,’ one coup plotter told me. ‘He had to be resuscitated and revived. He could not believe what was happening at first.’

Grace — with whom the president had begun an affair after spotting her in his typing pool when he was still married to his first wife — was terrified. She was hysterical and burst into tears.

According to one who was told about the unfolding events: ‘She’s been in a mess ever since — in tears and mentally gone. She begged to be allowed to fly out to Malaysia [where she has millions in investments].

Will the Saudi deterrence succeed after Boukamal and before Hodeidah? هل ينجح الردع السعودي بعد البوكمال وقبل الحديدة؟

Will the Saudi deterrence succeed after Boukamal and before Hodeidah?

Written by Nasser Kandil,

نوفمبر 17, 2017

هل ينجح الردع السعودي بعد البوكمال وقبل الحديدة؟

It seems that the bilateral imposed by facts, realities, and balances of forces based on the exclusion of any American – Saudi – Israeli foolishness that may lead to major war on one hand, And on the other hand, it based also on the need of this alliance which loses its sites successively for a war which it must choose its location, circumstances, and its calculations well in a way that ensures not to go to forbidden major war on one hand, and which ensures on the other hand  a valuable adjustment in the balances of forces which are strongly  in favor of the axis of the resistance, through its governments, its forces, its Russian ally, and the results of all the previous battles.

All the hypotheses for this complicated equation have been presented, as the experience of Kurdistan and supporting the secession in it with all its temptations, Boukamal, and the hypothesis of a limited war in the southern of Syria or in the southern of Lebanon. All of these are shortcuts for the comprehensive war. The intension on an American red line that prevents the convergence of the Syrian and the Iraqi armies and the forces of the resistance in Boukamal means getting involved in a war with Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, and the popular crowd of Iraq supported by Russia, while to stand firmly to protect the secession project in the Iraqi Kurdistan seemed a way that its end would be an open war with Iran, Iraq, and Turkey at least, while the war in the southern of Syria or in the southern of Lebanon will put Israel under the pressure of thousands of missiles from Lebanon ,Syria, and Iran.

The wars are not determined by the imprudent sons or those who took adventures and lost gambling as the loss in the war of Yemen, especially in an accurate moment that does not bear fatal mistakes, all the mistakes can be deadly, just for that each of the US President Donald Trump,, the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and the Head of the occupation government Benjamin Netanyahu practices his game in his own  way but within controls and boundaries that are drawn by the US decision-makers from the military and intelligence who master studying maps, drawing plans, defining tactics and controls, and expanding and narrowing margins.

The Americans as well as the serious players on the geographical area that witnesses related wars from Russia in the north to the Gulf in the south and from Iran in the east to the Mediterranean in the west, and which includes major players as Iran, Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Israel deal with this area as a modification of the concept of the traditional region which is known by the Middle East. Everyone knows without public recognition that the area of the five seas which the Syrian President talked about as a vital range of policies and strategies ten years ago is the new regional framework of the new world, and an alternative to what was known with the heart of the old world, it includes the Arab East and the northern of Africa as a description of the meaning of the Middle East which locates in the center of the major regional countries as Turkey, Iran, and the Gulf. The Americans tried to modify it by naming it the Great Middle East adding these countries to it, but they were surprised by the Russian involvement in the conflict and its turning into a regional player in it.

On the analysts and planners’ maps, the vital ranges of the five seas seem like that, In the Caspian Sea, the conflict has been resolved in favor of the major players in it; Russia and Iran, while the countries which locate along the sea are under Russian –Iranian cover such as Kazakhstan which  is hosting in its capital Astana the solution dialogues for Syria led by Russia, and Azerbaijan whose its president participated few days ago in a trilateral summit with the Russian and the Iranian Presidents in Tehran to announce a strategic cooperation network with Russia and Iran. In the Black Sea where the traditional conflict is between the two poles of the sea; Russia and Turkey and on its usage, the Syrian war has formed an arena for the maturity of Turkey and its reading of its interests, alliances, and its national security in a way that made it a part of the Russian-Iranian system at the regional level, despite its presence internationally in the NATO. In the Mediterranean Sea there is no place for small wars since it is the international lake in which the major players are present face-to-face. In the Gulf, where the American presence is face-to face with the Iranian one the adventure is not allowed. So the Red Sea is the only available battlefield under the controls of avoiding the Great War, and the seeking to modify the balances simultaneously.

China is on the Red Sea in Djibouti, while Iran is on the Red Sea in Eritrea as the Americans, the Saudis, and the Israelis said. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Israel is on the Red Sea directly, but Yemen and Egypt alone have control on the sides of the Red Sea, so resolving the US domination on the two sides of the Red Sea the northern and the southern is achieved by imposing the Saudi presence in the north on the coast of Yemen, because it prevents turning the Egyptian presence in the south into a neutral settling role, while the staying of the Yemeni coast under the control of the Yemenis especially the port of Hodeidah keeps the Egyptian role Egyptian and prevents its involvement in the international and the regional equations and the considerations of its balances, especially because the battle of Bab Al-Mandab is not resolved but by having control on Hodeidah.

Therefore, the war is the war of Hodeidah. In Lebanon the equation is to link the acceptance of the Saudi cover of a settlement that recognizes the victories of Hezbollah in Syria in exchange of the acceptance of Iran of a settlement in Yemen that recognizes the victories of Saudi Arabia after resolving Hodeidah, where the resignation of the Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri becomes under a Saudi decision a deterrent preemptive to protect the project of the virtual settlement after the war of Hodeidah. While in the field there is a Saudi preemptive escalation against Iran as a virtual deterrence for any Iranian involvement in the war of Hodeidah. The beginning is the announcement of the closure of the Yemeni territorial water and linking the missiles that target Saudi Arabia from Yemen with an Iranian role and making the port of Hodeidah a title for this linkage.

The war of Yemen is the well-considered limited war to prevent a major war which the American and the Israeli know that they do not have the ability to get involved in, because if Saudi Arabia controls on it,  then it will be a gain for the whole alliance, and if it does not control on it, Saudi Arabia will bear the consequences of the of the defeat alone since it received a lot of money in advance as a compensation for the cover of its campaign against its neighbors and seizing their wealth.

The Yemenis say that they do not need Iranian intervention to protect their capabilities in Hodeidah, since their missiles to the Saudi depth in case of the outbreak of war will deter the Saudis from continuing their tampering with fire.

Everyone says that by the end of this year the wars will end, and settlements will start, so Syria goes to war of recapturing Raqqa and Idlib, supported by Iran and Russia, even if it collided with the Americans and the Turks, while America and Israel sent Saudi Arabia to occupy Hodeidah provided that not to collide with Iran.

After drawing and resolving the balances of the Red Sea, the equation of the Gulf becomes clear, and the Mediterranean Sea will host the summits of the major settlements in the area of the five seas.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

هل ينجح الردع السعودي بعد البوكمال وقبل الحديدة؟

نوفمبر 9, 2017

ناصر قنديل

هل ينجح الردع السعودي بعد البوكمال وقبل الحديدة؟

– تبدو الثنائية التي تفرضها الحقائق والوقائع وموازين القوى، قائمة على استبعاد أيّ حماقة أميركية سعودية «إسرائيلية» بحرب كبرى، من جهة ومن جهة مقابلة، على حاجة هذا الحلف الذي يخسر مواقعه تباعاً، إلى حرب عليه أن يحسن اختيار مكانها وظروفها، وحساباتها، بحيث تضمن عدم الانزلاق إلى الحرب الكبرى الممنوعة من جهة، وتضمن تعديلاً ذا قيمة في موازين القوى الراجحة بقوة لحساب محور المقاومة بحكوماته وقواه وحليفه الروسي، بنتائج المعارك السابقة كلها.

– وضعت على الطاولة للبحث عن جواب لهذه المعادلة المعقدة، الفرضيات كلّها، من اختبار كردستان ودعم الانفصال فيها، بإغراءاتها كلها، والبوكمال بكلّ ما تعنيه، وفرضية حرب محدودة في جنوب سورية او جنوب لبنان، وكلها بدا أنها طريق مختصر للمواجهة الشاملة، فالإصرار على خط أحمر أميركي يمنع تلاقي الجيشين السوري والعراقي وقوى المقاومة في البوكمال يعني دخول حرب مع سورية وإيران وحزب الله والحشد الشعبي في العراق، ومن ورائهم روسيا، والوقوف بحزم لحماية مشروع الانفصال في كردستان العراق بدا طريقاً نهايته القريبة حرب مفتوحة مع إيران والعراق وتركيا على الأقلّ، والحرب في جنوب سورية أو جنوب لبنان ستضع «إسرائيل» تحت ضغط آلاف الصواريخ من لبنان وسورية وإيران.

– الحروب لا يقرّرها الصغار ولا يرسم دوائرها الهواة، خصوصاً الذين خاضوا مغامرت ومقامرات خاسرة كحرب اليمن، خصوصاً في لحظة دقيقة لا تحتمل الأخطاء القاتلة. وكلّ الأخطاء يمكن أن تكون قاتلة، ولذلك يؤدّي الرئيس الأميركي دونالد ترامب وولي العهد السعودي محمد بن سلمان ورئيس حكومة الاحتلال بنيامين نتنياهو لعبة كلّ منهم بأسلوبه، لكن ضمن ضوابط وهوامش يرسم حدودها صنّاع القرار الأميركي من رجال الجيش والمخابرات، الذين يجيدون دراسة الخرائط ورسم الخطط، وتحديد التكتيكات والضوابط، وفتح وإغلاق الهوامش.

– يتعامل الأميركيون، ومثلهم اللاعبون الجديون كلّهم على رقعة جغرافية تشهد حروباً متصلة، تمتدّ من روسيا شمالاً إلى الخليج جنوباً، ومن إيران شرقاً إلى البحر المتوسط غرباً، وتضمّ لاعبين كباراً مثل إيران وروسيا وتركيا والسعودية و«إسرائيل»، باعتبارها تعديلاً لمفهوم الإقليم التقليدي المتعارف على تسميته بالشرق الأوسط، وينطلق الجميع من دون إقرار علني بذلك، من كون منطقة البحار الخمسة التي تحدث عنها الرئيس السوري كمدى حيوي للسياسات والاستراتيجيات قبل عشر سنوات، هي الإطار الإقليمي الجديد، لقلب العالم الجديد، كبديل لما عُرف بقلب العالم القديم، ويضمّ المشرق العربي وشمال أفريقيا، كتوصيف لمعنى الشرق الأوسط، الواقع في قلب كتل إقليمية كبرى هي تركيا وإيران والخليج. حاول الأميركيون تعديله بتسمية الشرق الأوسط الكبير بإضافة هذه الكتل إليه، ففاجأهم الدخول الروسي لقلب الصراع والتحوّل إلى لاعب إقليمي فيه.

– على خرائط المحللين والمخططين، تبدو المجالات الحيوية للبحار الخمسة كما يلي، في بحر قزوين، حيث اللاعبان الكبيران روسيا وإيران، حسم الصراع لصالحهما، مع انضواء الدول المشاطئة للبحر تحت مظلة روسية إيرانية، كازاخستان التي تستضيف في عاصمتها أستانة حوارات الحلّ في سورية بقيادة روسيا، ومثلها أذربيجان التي شارك رئيسها في قمة ثلاثية قبل أيام مع الرئيسين الروسي والإيراني في طهران للإعلان عن شبكة تعاون استراتيجية مع روسيا وإيران، في البحر الأسود حيث الصراع التقليدي بين قطبي البحر واستخداماته، روسيا وتركيا، شكلت الحرب السورية ساحة إنضاج لموقع تركيا وقراءاتها لمفهوم مصالحها وتحالفاتها وأمنها القومي، بصورة جعلتها جزءاً من منظومة روسية إيرانية على المستوى الإقليمي رغم وجودها دولياً في حلف الأطلسي، في البحر المتوسط لا مكان لحروب صغيرة فهو البحيرة الدولية التي يتواجد فيها اللاعبون الكبار وجهاً لوجه، وفي الخليج حيث الوجود الأميركي الإيراني وجهاً لوجه أيضاً لا تجوز المخاطرة، ليصير البحر الأحمر ساحة الحرب الوحيدة المتاحة، ضمن ضوابط تفادي الحرب الكبرى، والسعي لتعديل التوازنات في آن واحد.

– الصين على البحر الأحمر في جيبوتي، وإيران على البحر الأحمر في اريتريا، كما يقول الأميركيون والسعوديون و«الإسرائيليون»، والسعودية ومصر و«إسرائيل» على البحر الأحمر، مباشرة، لكن اليمن ومصر وحدهما يمسكان كلّ من جهة بعنق البحر الأحمر، فحسم السيطرة الأميركية على عنقَيْ البحر الأحمر الشمالي والجنوبي، يحققه فرض الوجود السعودي شمالاً على سواحل اليمن، لأنه يتيح منع تحوّل الوجود المصري جنوباً إلى دور حيادي تسووي، أما بقاء الساحل اليمني يميناً خصوصاً في ميناء الحديدة، فيبقي الدور المصري مصرياً، ويمنع ترصيده في المعادلات الدولية الإقليمية وحسابات توازناتها، خصوصاً أنّ معركة باب المندب لا تحسم إلا بالسيطرة على الحديدة.

– الحرب إذن هي حرب الحديدة، والمعادلة هي، في لبنان ربط قبول تغطية سعودية لتسوية تعترف بانتصارات حزب الله في سورية، بقبول إيران بتسوية في اليمن تعترف بانتصارات السعودية بعد حسم الحديدة، وتصير استقالة رئيس الحكومة اللبنانية سعد الحريري بقرار سعودي استباقاً رادعاً، لحماية مشروع تسوية افتراضية ما بعد حرب الحديدة. وفي الميدان، تصعيد استباقي سعودي بوجه إيران، لردع افتراضي لأيّ دخول إيراني على خط حرب الحديدة، والبداية إعلان إغلاق المياه الإقليمية اليمنية، وربط الصواريخ التي تستهدف السعودية من اليمن بدور إيراني، وجعل ميناء الحديدة عنواناً للربط.

– حرب الحديدة هي الحرب المحدودة والمحسوبة، منعاً لحرب كبرى يعرف الأميركي و«الإسرائيلي»، أن لا قدرة على التورّط فيها، فإنْ فاز بها السعودي صارت كسباً للحلف كله، وإنْ لم يفز يحمل نتائج الهزيمة وحده، وقد نال تعويضه مالاً كثيراً سلفاً بتغطية حملته على أبناء عمومته و«تشليحهم ثرواتهم في ليلة لا ضوء قمر فيها».

– يقول اليمنيون إنهم لا يحتاجون تدخّلاً إيرانياً لحماية قدراتهم في الحديدة، وإنّ وابل صواريخهم على العمق السعودي إذا اندلعت حرب الحديدة سيتكفل بردع السعوديين عن مواصلة اللعب بالنار.

– يقول الجميع إنّ نهاية العام، موعد نهاية الحروب، وانطلاق عام التسويات، فلذلك تذهب سورية لحرب استرداد الرقة وإدلب ومعها إيران وروسيا، ولو تصادمت مع الأميركيين والأتراك، وترسل أميركا و«إسرائيل» السعودية لاحتلال الحديدة شرط عدم التصادم مع إيران.

– بعد رسم وحسم توازنات البحر الأحمر تتحدّد معادلة الخليج، ويستضيف البحر المتوسط قمم التسويات الكبرى، في منطقة البحار الخمسة.

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Trump’s Pivot to Asia – An Arms Sales Bonanza – An Anti-Peace Trip

November 10, 2017

by Peter Koenig for the Saker blogTrump’s Pivot to Asia – An Arms Sales Bonanza – An Anti-Peace Trip

President Trump’s 5-country Asia tour has nothing to do with seeking peace anywhere, it has not even to do with diplomacy – it is entirely a warmongering business trip for the Military Industrial Complex. It is amazing that the world doesn’t catch on.

We know about Obama’s several years of pivoting to Asia. It resulted largely in the TPP, the Transpacific Partnership, a trade agreement between 12 countries including the US. The first thing Trump did when he came on board is canceling it, claiming that it would only harm the US. Canceling it, in fact, was a good thing, since contrary to what Trump understands, or claims to understand, of US-made international trade, the Asian partners would have suffered, not the US. There is not one single trade agreement the US has instigated, bilateral or multilateral, where the US came out as a loser, or even as an equal, always a winner. The original meaning of trade is not winning or losing, but it is an exchange of equals with equal benefits for all partners. ALBA (Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America) is perhaps one of the few living examples.

Trump doesn’t like multilateral trade agreements, because – even though he is in control – he may not be in total control. He wants to call the shots, every shot. Literally. This is what this 8-day ‘pivot’ to Asia is all about. It is about selling weapons, ‘the best, the most accurate, the deadliest the world has ever produced. Trump’s words – almost. And repeated over-and-over-and-over again.

At a press conference in Tokyo, with Japan’s PM Shinzo Abe, Trump said literally, when pointing at Prime Minister Abe, “[He] will shoot [North Korea’s] missiles out of the sky when he completes the purchase of lots of equipment from the United States. One very important thing is that Prime Minister Abe is going to be purchasing massive amounts of [US-made] military equipment, as he should. We make the best by far … it’s a lot of jobs for us, and a lot of safety for Japan (The Guardian, 6/11/2017).”

Trump had the audacity, as he always does, calling North Korea (DPRK – Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) a “threat to the civilized world”. And this, when he knows – or should know – that Pyongyang is only defending North Korea from the constant threats and aggressions of the United States, that Kim Jon-Un has no intention of attacking any country – but still has the memory deep inside, inherited by generations of North Koreans born after the atrocious Washington initiated 1953 Korean war, that devastated literally the entire country and killed 3 million people, about a third of the then North Korean population.

The entire world knows, including Trump’s predecessors, that the only threat to not only the world’s civilization, but to the entire humanity, are the United States of America – a rogue state, not respecting any international laws, no international contracts – and no human life, not even that of her own citizens. Tens of millions of people around the globe have been killed since the end of WWII directly by the US military, or NATO, or indirectly through proxies or mercenaries by the United States. All for wars that aim at complete world hegemony, at ‘Full Spectrum Dominance’ – as described by the PNAC – Plan for a New American Century. Nobody wants to touch this reality – almost nobody. Fortunately, in the last few years there are countries emerging that dare stand up to the killing monster, resisting it, by disobedience, despite ‘sanctions’, and through economic measures, like detaching their economy from the fraudulent fiat dollar. Recent examples are Venezuela and Iran.

Trump’s arms sale’s bonanza started actually already with Saudi Arabia, when he sold King Salman 110 billion worth of the best killer instruments – bombs, planes and tanks – America produces. A record weapon sales-contract.

On the pivot’s second leg, South Korea – Trump trumped up his tone, not at all for peace but to threaten once more Pyongyang and the North Korean leader, the American bully cum President calls derogatorily the ‘Little Rocket Man’. – Where are we in this world? Does this man Trump not see how much he is despised? Or is he so sick to actually enjoy being hated?

More than eighty percent of South Koreans want peace with the Nord. President Moon Jae-in was recently elected on a platform of uniting the South with the North – to bring back together families that were separated for more than half a century. How could he be such a dreamer? With close to 30,000 American soldiers on South Korean soil and a weapons arsenal, including nuclear arms, that could destroy all of east Asia in a jiffy. – And billions worth of more weapons sales to Seoul are on Trump’s murderous sales agenda. He is not only a bully par excellence, but the best salesman the US military industrial complex could wish for – and a booster of the US’s GDP of death and destruction.

The bully at the pulpit had no intention of addressing a road to peace. To the contrary, he boasted about the extraordinary unsurmountable weapons might of “America First” – and using South Koreans Parliament as a platform to launch yet another slandering tirade towards North Korea’s leader, Kim Jon-un, and her people, “[I] have come here to this peninsula to deliver a message directly to the leader of the North Korean dictatorship—the weapons you are acquiring are not making you safer. They are putting your regime in great danger. Every step you take down this dark path increases the peril you face. North Korea is not the paradise your grandfather envisioned. It is a hell that no person deserves. Yet despite every crime you have committed against god and man… we will offer a path towards a much better future. It begins with an end to the aggression of your regime, a stop to your development of ballistic missiles and complete verifiable and total denuclearization.”

While Emperor Donald was talking, three US Navy aircraft carriers were positioning themselves in attack mode in front of North Korea’s coast, preparing for more intimidating war games. More provocation, knowing damn well that DPRK’s President Kim Jon-un will not let go of his defense strategy – and rightly so. Anyone who knows a bit of North Korea’s history understands. Kim’s several requests for dialogue, as he wants peace for his country and for his people, were rejected by Washington. Instead he was showered with Trump’s outrageous warmongering language like “we will unleash ‘fire and fury’ the world has never seen” – or “we will destroy your country to rubble” – and more of such ridiculous and shameful threats – shameful for the so-called ‘leader’ of the “free world”, of the globe’s self-proclaimed Almighty, and shameful for all the other nations of this globe that just watch and listen to the monster’s angry outbursts – but are afraid to counter him, though they know he is wrong.

According to Reuters, Han Tae Song, Ambassador of the DPRK to the United Nations in Geneva, told on Wednesday the U.N. Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women, “The United States and other hostile forces impede the enjoyment by our people of their human rights in every possible way, resorting to the vicious ways and means of all kinds in their attempt to stifle the ideas and system of the DPRK,” He continued saying that Washington “manipulated” sanctions resolutions against his country at the U.N. Security Council that violated North Korean sovereignty and rights to existence and development.

“Due to these inhumane economic sanctions, vulnerable peoples like women and children are becoming…victims. Such sanctions against humanity which block even the delivery of the medical equipment and medicines for maternal and child health and the basic goods for daily life…..threaten the protection and promotion of our women’s rights and even the right to survival of the children.”

Next stop on Trump’s ‘pivot’ was Beijing, where, to the surprise of most media, he behaved like a statesman, trying to persuade President Xi of the benefits of a friendly US-Sino relation – and of course, of the importance that China adhere to the UN imposed sanctions on North Korea. The South China Sea, Human Rights and China’s alleged lack of Democracy – the usual Washington swan song – were not mentioned. Even the Chinese media hailed Trump’s visit as a success. The two leaders signed contracts for some 250 billion dollars-worth of investment and trade deals, or rather, as per Bloomberg, “non-binding memoranda of understanding”, between the two countries.

The deals, many of which were already concluded or planned before the Beijing meeting, included goods and services in transportation (Chinese purchase of 300 Boeing civilian aircraft), agriculture (pork and beef), IT, the financial sector (with Goldman Sachs – who else?) – and more. Nothing controversial. Trump expects to be appreciated at home for his salesmanship in Beijing – and for helping reducing the 250 billion US trade deficit with China.

Interestingly though, during the perhaps strategically most important stop of his Asia journey – Beijing – Trump did not use his usual vitriolic language to condemn and threaten Pyongyang and putting Xi on guard to follow the strict sanctions regime against the DPRK – or else. Why didn’t he? – Did he realize that it was worthless? That China would never let her neighbor die – and he would make himself ridiculous making believe his sanctions threat would work on China? – Or did he have a deeper agenda, like winning China over – or neutralizing her – for a possible future strike on Iran? – Of course, if carried out, then by proxies like the armed-to-the-teeth with US and UK weaponry Saudis and Israel? – Time will tell. But there is no doubt that the clear winner of this meeting was President Xi – with his calm manner and Tao philosophy of smiling and non-aggression.

On his last stop in Da Nang, Vietnam, Trump attended the APEC (Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation) summit (10-11 November), where he was expected to meet with President Putin, even briefly at the margin of the meetings. However, no official meeting was scheduled and as RT reports, ”Hopes of a bilateral Putin-Trump meeting on the sidelines of the APEC summit have waned with the White House citing “scheduling conflicts,” but at least the two were all smiles while shaking hands during the photo call.”

Well, why would President Putin want to meet with Trump, who after a meeting with seemingly positive chemistry, in Hamburg in July 2017, at the G20 summit, has been nothing but deceptive? Why faking more trust in a flamboyant billionaire bully, who has no ethics, who doesn’t honor contracts, promises, multilateral agreements or even international law – and allows his government to keep slandering Russia for ‘interfering’ in the 2016 US Presidential Elections?

The truth is, Trump, his predecessors, the UK leadership, the NATO allies, the Saudis, Gulf States and the EU puppets are shameless, ‘legalized’ murderers. – Legalized, because they dance to the tune of Trump’s canons, or to the dark deep state’s strings that pull the triggers of mayhem and death. For these people – are they still to be called people? – Trump has accomplished what he set out to do: Selling hundreds of billions worth of arms. In less than a year of his Presidency, he did more good to the military-security industrial complex than Obama did in his last four years in office.

Arms are made to kill and destroy. Killing and destroying is contributing big-time to the US GDP; in fact, this industrial octopus with all its associated tentacles – finance, IT, research, sub-contracting, mercenary funding abroad and within the US, spying and surveillance the world over – amount to more than half of the US total economic output. The United States of America lives off an economy of war, an economy of destruction and death.

Take Yemen. Since March 2015, the US and UK backed and armed Saudis have bombed Yemen to ruins, destroying schools, hospitals, roads, ports – vital infrastructure for any civilization. In addition to hospitals and schools, they targeted specifically water and sanitation systems to cause utmost harm to civilian populations. As a result, cholera cases are estimated at 500,000-plus, mostly children and women and elderly (UNICEF), the worst in recorded history. Many die, because the Saudis, again backed by the US and the UK, have banned import and distribution of essential drugs.

With major ports closed – also by the Saudis, the US and the UK, Yemen is facing one of the worst famine the world has ever seen in recent history. Daily Saudi shelling with US planes and UK bombs, has killed tens of thousands of people, mostly civilians, women and children – some estimates range from 60,000 to 80,000. Nobody really keeps count. Yemen has been (kept) poor before. And now, who cares. Yemen already today is the worst humanitarian crisis in decades. And there is no end in sight.

Since the US / UK backed Saudi attacks began some 20 months ago, UK arms sales have increased 50 times. Yet a case filed with the International Court of Justice (ICC) by UK citizens against ‘illegal’ weapons sales, was dismissed by the court, as it could not find anything illegal with these weapon deliveries. That only shows, ICC’s worthlessness, as it is totally controlled by the Zion-Anglo-Saxon hegemon.

What might be more effective than ICC in stopping the boundless assassination raids, is chaining up Donald Trump, Barack Obama, Theresa May and David Cameron, and parachuting them onto Hudaydah, one of Yemen’s hardest hit towns, in the west of the country. Let them see and feel and smell the pain, death and desperation of the survivors. Would it light up the remnants of their spark of ethics and moral they may still have left from birth?

Peter Koenig is an economist and geopolitical analyst. He is also a former World Bank staff and worked extensively around the world in the fields of environment and water resources. He lectures at universities in the US, Europe and South America. He writes regularly for Global Research, ICH, RT, Sputnik, PressTV, The 4th Media (China), TeleSUR, The Vineyard of The Saker Blog, and other internet sites. He is the author of Implosion – An Economic Thriller about War, Environmental Destruction and Corporate Greed – fiction based on facts and on 30 years of World Bank experience around the globe. He is also a co-author of The World Order and Revolution! – Essays from the Resistance.

 

Russia’s Iranian Energy Deal Killed Four Birds with One Stone

Russia’s gargantuan $30 billion energy deal with Iran simultaneously accomplished four objectives that are central to the grand strategic goals behind Moscow’s “Ummah Pivot”.

Global Research, November 08, 2017
Oriental Review 4 November 2017

Rosneft chief executive Igor Sechin announced that his company signed a roadmap to invest the mind-numbingly large sum of $30 billion in the Iranian energy sector following his and President Putin’s visit to the Islamic Republic to hold three-way talks with Azerbaijan. This masterstroke of energy diplomacy wouldn’t have been possible had it not been for Trump scaring Western investors away from Iran and pushing the country closer towards Russia as a result, which totally reversed the intended dynamic of the Obama Administration that sought to reorient Iran in the opposite direction through the multiple concessions that it offered up through the summer 2015 nuclear deal. Russia’s foreign policy “progressives” are indeed making rapid progress in advancing their 21st-century grand strategic goal of positioning Moscow as the supreme balancing force in the Eurasian supercontinent, and this is in turn accelerating the global transition to a Multipolar World Order.

In order to appreciate just how profoundly significant of a geostrategic move Moscow made this week, one needs to look no further than the four objectives that were immediately advanced through the Russian-Iranian energy roadmap:

Unveiling A Trans-Azeri Pipeline

Russia intends to build a trans-Azeri pipeline to Iran, which will not only strengthen bilateral Russian-Iranian relations and their trilateral expansion with Azerbaijan, but also importantly demonstrates the success of the recent Russian-Azeri rapprochement over the past year. Moscow views Baku as an integrationist in the sense that it’s facilitating Russia and China’s supercontinental goal of linking the landmass closer together, while traditional Russian “ally” Armenia is seen as a Western-leaning obstructionist that’s suddenly become a wayward partner.

It shouldn’t be interpreted as coincidental that this new energy-driven milestone in Russian-Azeri relations occurred just weeks before the planned signing of Armenia’s “Comprehensive And Enhanced New Agreement” with the EU. The dichotomy of Azerbaijan moving closer to Russia at precisely the same moment that Armenia drifts towards the West is expected to have serious implications for the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process because it suggests that Moscow might more solidly support Baku’s preferred solution to this conflict in line with international law while the West (influenced to a strong degree by the powerful US-based Armenian lobby) might back Yerevan’s continued occupation of the region.

Starting The South Asian Stream

The other important outcome of this trilateral summit is that Russia also announced that it intends to build a tristate pipeline between Iran, Pakistan, and India, which the author recently remarked might signify that Russia has been successful in getting India to downscale its support for Baloch terrorism against Pakistan due to New Delhi’s newfound self-interest in this transnational region’s stability because of “South Asian Stream”. If successful with this strategy, then Moscow could prove that it’s indeed the only balancing force capable of sustaining stability in the Mideast-South Asian pivot region because of the influence that Russia is still capable of wielding in “moderating” the pro-Western pivot that India’s embarked on in recent years.

Trilateral meeting of Vladimir Putin, President of Iran Hassan Rouhani and President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev.

Trilateral meeting of Vladimir Putin, President of Iran Hassan Rouhani and President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev in Tehran, Nov 1, 2017 (PHOTO: KREMLIN.RU)

Neutralizing Iran As A European Competitor

In line with the abovementioned strategy that the Obama Administration had for gently co-opting Iran and its “moderate”-led government into the Western fold, a large part of the vision had to do with using Western investments to eventually transform the country into a formidable competitor to Russia in the European marketplace. That entire blueprint has now been neutralized because of Trump’s aggression against the Islamic Republic and the “rescue mission” that Russian energy investments are now engaged in to “save” the Iranian economy from the US’ anti-Iranian bullying of its Western partners (despite the President’s public denial thereof) and what appear to be impending sectoral sanctions against its resource sector. Under these circumstances, which are setting into motion reformatted years-long strategies by all sides, it’s all but impossible for the US to ever “guide” Iran in the direction of becoming a serious competitor to Russia’s marketplace position in Europe, thereby averting this scenario.

Reassuring Tehran About The Russian-Saudi Rapprochement

Finally, Iran had every reason to be concerned about the Russian-Saudi rapprochement if its decision makers viewed it from a “zero-sum” Neo-Realist angle, even though Moscow’s intent behind it had always been about forging a win-win solution for retaining state-to-state peace in the Mideast, but all of those fears were put to rest after the announcement about Rosneft’s $30 billion energy investment plans in the Islamic Republic. Tehran can now rest assured that Moscow isn’t “selling out” to the Saudis, but is indeed truly trying to balance the complex interstate relations of the Mideast, hence the very successful outcome of President Putin’s visit to Iran in proving just how successful Russia’s “Ummah Pivot” is shaping out to be.

Andrew Korybko is an American Moscow-based political analyst specializing in the relationship between the US strategy in Afro-Eurasia, China’s One Belt One Road global vision of New Silk Road connectivity, and Hybrid Warfare.

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Putin and Al-Khamenei: Strategy of the alliance بوتين والخامنئي: استراتيجية الحلف

Putin and Al-Khamenei: Strategy of the alliance

نوفمبر 7, 2017

Written by Nasser Kandil,

The Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Iranian Al Imam Ali Al- Khamenei know that they are the pillar of a multilateral alliance, where Turkey can be a third pillar through building the axis of the  regional economic, political, and military balance, including the track of settlement in Syria. And China can be a third pillar also through building the international economic, political, and military balance. Furthermore, many countries can be a third pillar in it according to their field, specialization, and kind of their duties. Azerbaijan through the representation of its President Ilham Aliyev was present as a third pillar in forming the axis of the Caspian, and the only ground connection between them, in a way it makes the military and the economic geography of these two great countries as one, so on one hand, Russia becomes in the Iranian Bandar Abbas on the waters of the Gulf opposite Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Oman, and thus opposite the American conveyors and destroyers, and  becomes across Turkey and across the Black Sea towards Syria on the Mediterranean waters. On the other hand, Iran becomes across Iraq and Syria on the Mediterranean waters, after the direct connection has been resolved across the Syrian-Iraqi borders and becomes across the Azerbaijan-Russian pipeline in Petersburg on the waters of the North Sea off Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Germany, so there will be an area that stretches from the North Sea to the Caspian, the Black and the Mediterranean  Seas to the Gulf, where Russia and Iran are in the middle.

This is the second meeting of the two leaders after their first meeting two years ago after the accomplishment of the understanding on the Iranian nuclear program internationally, and after Russia has accomplished its military positioning in Syria. At the second meeting the two leaders continue their new mapping for their political, economic, and military alliance in the region and the world. The second accomplishment approached from its end with the victory of Syria along with the Iranian nuclear file. The two accomplishments remain under protection as a permanent task against the attempts of targeting which did not and will not stop. As the two leaders did not celebrate the accomplishment of the understanding on the nuclear program two years ago, but they planned to win in the war on Syria, they did not celebrate in their second meeting for the victory of Syria, but they plan to win in a new war,   which seems a war of making the economic and the defensive balance based on a broad network of interests and security which though it they can polarize the surrounding geography.

The path of settlement in Syria and the protection of the nuclear understanding were  the first discussed issues but they did not take long time, thus, the priority becomes a geographical arch from Petersburg to Bandar Abbas for transferring the steel from Russia to Iran and then to the Gulf, and opening the European market from its northern gate from and to Iran, and for building a giant electric network that is fed by nuclear reactors that build by Russia in Siberia that is able to ensure the needs of ten countries in the region from Iraq to Syria and Lebanon in the west and Pakistan, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan in the east, the Gulf from the south, and facilitates the transferring of the capacitates, expertise, and the military equipments to where there is a need outside any supervision or control from a third party. The means of cooperation, coordination, and the expertise in this field between the two countries have expanded, in addition to their armed forces, and their security services from the experience of the long difficult multi-dimensional work which they waged together in Syria.

Russia which is reassured to the victory of Syria and which is comfortable towards the cooperation militarily and in oil and arms with Iraq versus Iran which is confident that the change of the equations of Syria and Iraq will change the whole region, and that the cooperation with Russia to build an international protection network for the choice of independence will ensure that America will not evade from the nuclear understanding, as it will ensure the continuation of building the Iranian missile capacity. Russia and Iran together are preparing to cooperate with China and with those who wants to build a network of inter-banking transactions that does not pass through mediation, the US currency, and banks, as a preparation for a new stage at the international and the regional levels, where the aspects of the military dimension will decrease due to the decline of wars in favor of more politics and more and more economy.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

بوتين والخامنئي: استراتيجية الحلف

نوفمبر 2, 2017

ناصر قنديل

– يعرف الزعيمان الروسي فلاديمير بوتين والإيراني الإمام علي الخامنئي أنهما ركيزة حلف متعدّد الأطراف، تصير تركيا ركناً ثالثاً فيه في بناء محور التوازن الاقتصادي والسياسي والعسكري الإقليمي، ومن ضمنه مسار التسوية في سورية، وتصير الصين ركناً ثالثاً فيه في بناء محور التوازن الاقتصادي والسياسي والعسكري على المستوى الدولي، وتصير دول كثيرة ثالثاً فيه كلّ في مجال واختصاص وطبيعة مهام. وحضرت أذربيجان برئيسها إلهام علييف كثالث لهما في تشكيل محور لبحر قزوين، وكحلقة وصل برية وحيدة بينهما، تجعل الجغرافيا العسكرية والاقتصادية للبلدين الكبيرين شبه واحدة، وتصير عبرها روسيا موجودة في بندر عباس الإيراني على مياه الخليج قبالة السعودية والإمارات وعُمان، تشاطئ الحاملات والمدمّرات الأميركية، بمثل ما تصير روسيا عبر تركيا برياً وعبر البحر الأسود وصولاً لسورية، على مياه المتوسط، بينما تصير إيران عبر العراق وسورية، بعدما حُسِم التواصل المباشر عبر الحدود السورية العراقية، على مياه المتوسط، وعبر الخط الواصل من أذربيجان وروسيا في بطرسبورغ على مياه بحر الشمال، قبالة فنلندا والسويد والنروج والدنمارك وألمانيا، وترتسم منطقة ممتدّة من بحر الشمال إلى بحر قزوين والبحرين الأسود والمتوسط إلى الخليج، تتوسّطها روسيا وإيران.

– هذا الاجتماع الثاني للزعيمين، بعد اجتماعهما الأول قبل عامين بعدما تمّ إنجاز التفاهم على الملف النووي الإيراني دولياً، وبعدما أنجزت روسيا تموضعها العسكري في سورية، وفي الاجتماع الثاني يواصل الزعيمان رسم خرائط جديدة لحلفهما السياسي والاقتصادي والعسكري، في المنطقة والعالم، وقد شارف الإنجاز الثاني بانتصار سورية على النهايات، لينضمّ إلى الملف النووي الإيراني، ويبقى الإنجازان تحت الحماية كمهمّة دائمة بوجه محاولات الاستهداف التي لم ولن تتوقف، وكما لم يحتفل الزعيمان قبل عامين بإنجاز التفاهم على الملف النووي، بل خططا للفوز بحرب سورية، لا يحتفلان في لقائهما الثاني بنصر سورية، بل يخططان للفوز بحرب جديدة، تبدو حرب إقامة التوازن الاقتصادي والدفاعي بالاستناد إلى شبكة المصالح والأمن الواسعة، التي يستطيعان عبرها استقطاب الجغرافيا المحيطة بهما.

– مسار التسوية في سورية وحماية التفاهم النووي يقدّما المباحثات من دون استغراق وقت طويل، لتكون الأولوية لقوس جغرافي ممتدّ من بطرسبورغ إلى بندر عباس، ينقل الصلب من روسيا إلى إيران أولاً ومنها إلى الخليج، ويفتح السوق الأوروبية من بوابتها الشمالية من إيران وإليها، وبناء شبكة نقل كهربائية عملاقة تتغذّى من مفاعلات نووية تشيّدها روسيا في سيبيريا، قادرة على تأمين احتياجات عشرات الدول في المنطقة، من العراق إلى سورية ولبنان غرباً، وباكستان وتركمانستان وأفغانستان شرقاً، والخليج جنوباً، وتسهيل تنقل المقدّرات والخبرات والمعدات العسكرية إلى حيث يستدعي الوضع، خارج أيّ رقابة أو تحكّم من أيّ طرف ثالث، وقد توسّعت سبل التعاون والتنسيق والخبرات في هذا المجال بين البلدين وقواهما المسلحة وأجهزتهما الأمنية، من تجربة العمل الصعب والطويل والمتعدّد الأبعاد، الذي خاضاه معاً في سورية.

– روسيا المطمئنة لنصر سورية والمرتاحة للتعاون عسكرياً ونفطياً وتسليحياً مع العراق، تقابل إيران الواثقة بأنّ تغيير معادلات سورية والعراق سيغيّر وجه المنطقة، وبأنّ التعاون مع روسيا لبناء شبكة حماية دولية لخيار الاستقلال سيضمن عدم التفلت الأميركي من التفاهم النووي، كما سيضمن مواصلة يناء القدرة الصاروخية الإيرانية، وروسيا وإيران معاً تستعدّان للتعاون مع الصين ومع مَن يرغب لبناء شبكة تعامل مصرفي بيني لا تمرّ بالوساطة والعملة والبنوك الأميركية، تأسيساً لمرحلة جديدة على المستوى الإقليمي والدولي، تتقلّص وجوه البعد العسكري فيها بالتناسب مع تراجع الحروب، لصالح سياسة أكثر، واقتصاد أكثر وأكثر.

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This is China’s century, it is known by America هذا قرن الصين تعرفه أميركا

 This is China’s century, it is known by America

أكتوبر 31, 2017

Written by Nasser Kandil,

Those who are deeply involved  in reading the American unilateral and insist on being dazzled by the fact that America was and will remain the main player in the international arena,  have to return to the writings of the neo-conservatives and the expectations of the US major thinkers as Samuel Huntington, Francis Fukuyama and Bernard Lewis about the last opportunity of America for investing in order to stabilize its leadership, which its ceiling is the first quarter of the twenty-first century, otherwise China is coming. This century is China’s, the time of collapse and decline in the situation of Russia will end before the end of the first quarter of the twenty-first century. The economic power of China will get it out to politics and markets together, and it will converge with Russia in the attempt to replace the dollar as the main currency in the world. So what is available for America and what it must not be delayed for is to stick to the energy resources and the ways of their flow before the end of the deadline. The war on the region between the Caspian, the Red, the Black and the Mediterranean Seas will determine the fate of the world, its system, and its leadership. By the way it is the region for which the Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad has called its leaders to form a regional system under the name of the five seas region, but after adding the Gulf to them.

The war of the five seas has occurred but it will not continue after it lost the momentum. What has affected the US war in its goals, alliances, and its armies is enough to announce its failure, and the quest to stick to the energy resources to control the Chinese growth and the price of the Chinese goods has become a lost dream, moreover, the plans of controlling the energy flow from Russia to Europe have failed, and its sale has been imposed with cheap prices in order to grant the heavy European economics the opportunities to grow, beholding it the costs of including the poor countries of the Eastern Europe in order to tighten the siege of Russia to force it to surrender. The war is approaching of its end; Russia and China have the keys of economic, military, and political rise, most importantly to reach the seas, while Syria was the key opportunity for that positioning.

Russia and China have tested two experiences towards internationality, but their essence was the same, the failure which affected the traditional example of socialism with the experience of the Soviet Union has led them practically towards the state capitalism, whether it was called in Russia the social liberalism and the multi-capitalist economy or was called in China the socialist market economy. The essence of the new economy of the two countries based on a country that sticks to the strategic resources of economy and leaves the free competition to the private sector, and which sticks strongly to the social role of the country through the high social guarantees presented by it to the poor and those of small income.

But the new state capitalism in China and Russia depends on a new pillar; its socialist content, where the transformation which each of Russia and China inserted into their understanding of the socialist economics depends, it is the realization that the surplus value which achieves the capital accumulation is not in the labor force and what the producers do, which means not in the production, as what Karl Marx and Frederic Engels, the founders of socialism wrote, but in the exchange, where the transportation of goods, the raw materials, and the energy resources play a pivotal role in determining the quantity of the capital accumulation which is achieved by production. The exchange is the next step of the four economic processes through which Marx and Engels have summarized the capital process ” production, distribution, exchange, and consumption” No matter if the Chinese or the Russians formulated this transformation in the concept of the economic philosophy as much as it is important that it forms the essence power of Russia and China today. Today Russia is a state of oil and gas pipelines, while China is the state of railways.

Those who observe China and Russia during the past quarter will discover the size of the linkage between the economic growth of both of them and the sticking of the country to the essence of the economic process. for example, In Russia, there are means of transferring energy, while in China there are means for transferring the raw materials and goods, and will discover also an objective proportion  between this growth and the natural wealth of the two countries. Russia is the country of oil and gas, while China is the country of steel, He will discover as well the reasons of the superiority of Russia and China and their success through avoiding the fall before the US efforts of hegemony, through the sticking  strongly to the virtual transportation  of energy and goods together which are represented by the banking transactions, it is a means that cannot be developed and it is not suitable to achieve the development of the American economy but virtually, as has happened in the stock exchange of Wall Street before its explosion,  and in the real estate market before its bankruptcy. While China will have an open range of  development as long as the railways which it tries to form commensurate with the size of the goods which it produces and  which are able to be marketed at home and abroad. Russia will have the opportunities as long as the oil and gas pipelines which it makes commensurate with the market need of oil and gas to which it exports and which need them but at a satisfactory price that suits the production averages and their prices. Washington entered the phase in which its growth became negative, after it transcended the red lines to expand its banking market and its paper transactions to the ceilings of the goods and the real goods around which money, banks and the stock markets circulate. Perhaps waging a war by America is an expression of the inability to play with time without a violent intervention that changes the course of the natural developments and bears the consequences of the competition which is determined by nature.

China exceeds Russia because it is an internal market that is wider four times, and because it produces goods and commodities not only the energy resources and the raw materials. So within few years it will reach according to the recognition of the International Monetary Fund the world’s largest economy after surpassing the American economy, and it will reach according to the recognition of the same Fund the first country in possessing the money in circulation, thus it will surpass Japan. Because there is no limit that prevents what is needed by the global market from the Chinese goods at reasonable prices, the success of China internationality will depend on solving problems of the local assembly which is close to the markets in order to save the cost and to try to protect through getting a consensus from the producers, and the winning of challenge will depend on the arrival of the goods to the markets at a suitable time and cost , just for that China prepares itself for a global campaign through One Belt One Road Initiative which based on the transportation network and industrial free zones to Asia towards the gates of Europe and Africa, and which its wide outcome will start to emerge in the year 2025 and will end within a context of an accelerated sustained growth in 2050.

Within years China will be able to absorb a huge amounts of the Gulf oil and the Russian, Iranian, and Qatari gas, as it will be able to spread huge quantities of its half-manufactured goods to hundreds of the industrial free zones that are built around hundreds of thousands of kilometers of the railways, it will spread in the markets more quantities of the consumer goods that are ready to be consumed directly.  The Chinese steel will be the crossing bridge through giant transport lines and exceptional high-speed trains. China will have surplus of thousands of trillions of currencies that are not monopolized by the US dollar including the Russia Ruble and the Chinese Yuan, therefore, the world will be in demand and China will expose its goods.

The Chinese and the Russian challenge represents by the ability to adapt the European West and the American to accept a balance in exchanging the outcomes of economy and its experiences, a balance in the game of power, and a balance in the management of politics because the years to come will grant Russia and China the opportunity of partnership between the first production country represented by China and the first energy and power country represented by Russia, so it will be difficult or even impossible to resist this bilateral. As Russia abandoned the race of arming in favor of reviving its economy decades ago, the West countries will take the initiative to call to eliminate of the useless accumulated nuclear arsenals in order to return the revival to its economy.

The sentence which was said by the President Bashar Al-Assad “ Heading eastward”  is neither mere a political choice for our country nor a reward for those who stood with us only, but it is a conscious anticipation for what is coming inevitably.

Xi Jinping is the new leader of China; he is coming with the giant railways, fast trains, and multi-cheap goods. Keep this name into your minds.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

هذا قرن الصين تعرفه أميركا

ناصر قنديل

أكتوبر 27, 2017

– للذين يتوهون في تفاصيل الاستغراق بقراءة الأحادية الأميركية ويصرّون على الانبهار بأنّ أميركا كانت وستبقى اللاعب الرئيسي المقرّر على الساحة الدولية، أن يعودوا إلى كتابات المحافظين الجدد، وتوقعات كبار المفكرين الأميركيين، من أمثال صموئيل هنتنغتون، وفرانسيس فوكوياما، وبرنارد لويس، عن فرصة أميركية لاستثمار سقفه الربع الأول من القرن الحادي والعشرين لتثبيت زعامتها، وإلا فإنّ الصين قادمة، والقرن قرن الصين، وأنّ زمن الانهيار والتراجع في حالة روسيا سينتهي قبل نهاية الربع الأول من القرن الحادي والعشرين، وأنّ قوة الصين الاقتصادية ستخرجها إلى السياسة والأسواق معاً وستجمعها مع روسيا على السعي لاستبدال الدولار كعملة رئيسية في العالم، وما تستطيعه أميركا وما يجب ألا تتأخر عنه هو الإمساك بمنابع الطاقة وطرق تدفقها، قبل نهاية المهلة، والحرب على منطقة ما بين بحار قزوين والأسود والأحمر والمتوسط ستقرّر مصير العالم ونظامه وزعامته، وهي بالمناسبة المنطقة التي دعا الرئيس السوري بشار الأسد قادتها لتشكيل منظمة إقليمية باسم منطقة البحار الخمسة مضيفاً الخليج إلى البحار الأربعة لتصير خمسة.

– دارت حرب البحار الخمسة ولن تستمرّ بعدما فقدت قوة الدفع، ولو جرجرت ذيولها لما تبقى من الربع الأول من القرن الحادي والعشرين، فما أصاب الحرب الأميركية بأهدافها وتحالفاتها وجيوشها كاف لإعلان فشلها، والسعي لإمساك مصادر الطاقة للتحكم بالنمو الصيني وأسعار السلع الصينية صار حلماً فائتاً، كما فشلت خطط التحكم بتدفق الطاقة من روسيا إلى أوروبا وفرض بيعها بأسعار رخيصة لتمنح الاقتصادات الأوروبية الثقيلة فرص النمو، وتعوّض عليها أكلاف ضمّها الدول الفقيرة شرق أوروبا بهدف إحكام حصار روسيا تمهيداً لفرض الاستسلام عليها. فالحرب تضع أوزارها أو تكاد بينما روسيا والصين تمسكان بمفاتيح الصعود الاقتصادي والسياسي والعسكري، والأهمّ بلوغ البحار، وقد كانت سورية مفتاح فرص هذا التموضع.

– خاضت روسيا والصين تجربتين مختلفين نحو العالمية، لكن جوهرهما واحد. فالفشل الذي أصاب النموذج التقليدي للاشتراكية مع تجربة الاتحاد السوفياتي، دفع بهما عملياً نحو رأسمالية الدولة، سواء جرت تسميتها في روسيا بالليبرالية المجتمعية والاقتصاد الرأسمالي المتعدّد، أو سمّيت في الصين باقتصاد السوق الاشتراكي، فجوهر اقتصاد البلدين الجديد يقوم على دولة تمسك بالمصادر الاستراتيجية للاقتصاد وتترك التنافس الحرّ للقطاع الخاص في سواها، وتتمسك بقوة بدور الدولة الاجتماعي بضمانات اجتماعية عالية تقدّمها الدولة للفقراء وذوي الدخل المحدود.

– لكن رأسمالية الدولة الجديدة في الصين وروسيا تعتمد على ركيزة جديدة هي مضمونها الاشتراكي، حيث يتشكل قلب التحوّل الذي أدخلته كلّ من روسيا والصين على فهمهما للاقتصاد الاشتراكي، هو إدراك أنّ فائض القيمة الذي يحقق التراكم الرأسمالي ليس في قوة العمل وما يبذله المنتجون، أيّ ليس في الإنتاج كما كتب كارل ماركس وفريديريك أنغلز، مؤسّسا الاشتراكية، بل في التبادل، حيث تلعب وسائل نقل السلع والمواد الخام وموارد الطاقة الدور المحوري في تحديد كمية التراكم الرأسمالي الذي يحققه الإنتاج، والتبادل هو الحلقة التالية من العمليات الاقتصادية الأربع التي لخّص بها العبقريان ماركس وأنغلز العملية الرأسمالية، «الإنتاج والتوزيع والتبادل والاستهلاك»، وليس مهماً إنْ صاغ الصينيون والروس هذا التحوّل بمفهوم فلسفة اقتصادية بقدر أهمية أنه يشكل جوهر قوة روسيا والصين اليوم، فروسيا دولة أنابيب النفط والغاز، والصين دولة خطوط سكك الحديد.

– مَن يراقب الصين وروسيا خلال ربع قرن مضى سيكتشف حجم الرابط بين النمو الاقتصادي لكليهما، بنمو إمساك الدولة بجوهر العملية الاقتصادية. في روسيا وسائل نقل الطاقة، وفي الصين وسائل نقل المواد الخام والبضائع، وسيكتشف تناسباً موضوعياً بين هذا النمو والثروات الطبيعية للبلدين، فروسيا بلد النفط والغاز والصين بلد الفولاذ، وسيكتشف أسباب تفوّق روسيا والصين ونجاحهما بتفادي السقوط أمام المساعي الأميركية للهيمنة بقوة الإمساك بوسيلة النقل الافتراضية للطاقة والبضائع معاً، التي تمثلها المعاملات البنكية، وهي وسيلة غير قابلة للنمو ولا تصلح بذاتها لتحقيق التنمية للاقتصاد الأميركي إلا افتراضياً، كما حدث في بورصات وول ستريت قبل انفجارها الدفتري، وفي سوق العقارات قبل إفلاسها. بينما في المقابل سيكون للصين مدى مفتوح في النمو ما دامت سكك الحديد التي تبنيها وتسعى لبنائها تتناسب مع حجم البضائع التي تنتجها والقابلة للتسويق في الداخل أو الخارج، ومثلها روسيا سيكون لها الفرص ما دامت أنابيب الغاز والنفط التي تنشئها متناسبة مع مقدار حاجة الأسواق للنفط والغاز الذي تصدّره إلى أسواق تحتاجه بسعر يناسب معادلات الإنتاج وأسعارها بينما واشنطن دخلت المرحلة التي صار نموّها فيها سلبياً، بعدما اجتازت الخطوط الحمراء لتوسّع سوقها المصرفية ومعاملاتها الورقية لسقوف البضائع والسلع الحقيقية التي يقوم المال وتقوم المصارف والبورصات بتداولها. ولعلّ الإقدام على خوض الحرب من الجانب الأميركي تعبير عن العجز عن اللعب مع الزمن دون تدخل عنيف يغيّر مسار التطورات الطبيعية، وتحمل نتائج التنافس الذي تقرّره الطبيعة.

– تتقدّم الصين على روسيا بكونها سوقاً داخلية أوسع بأربع مرات، وبكونها تنتج البضائع والسلع لا موارد الطاقة والمواد الخام فقط، ولذلك فهي ستبلغ في أعوام قليلة باعتراف صندوق النقد الدولي مرتبة الاقتصاد الأكبر في العالم، بعد تجاوزها للاقتصاد الأميركي، وستبلغ أيضاً باعتراف الصندوق نفسه مرتبة الدولة الأولى في امتلاك الكتل النقدية وتتخطى بذلك اليابان، ولأنّ لا مساحة تحدّ مما يحتاجه السوق العالمي من سلع صينية بأسعار مناسبة، سيتوقف نجاح عالمية الصين على حلّ معضلات التجميع المحلي القريب من الأسواق توفيراً للكلفة وسعياً للحماية بالحصول على توافق مع المنتجين فيها. كما سيتوقف الفوز بالتحدّي على وصول السلع للأسواق بوقت مناسب وكلفة مناسبة، لذلك تستعدّ الصين لحملة عالميتها بمشروع الحزام والطريق، القائم على شبكة مواصلات ومناطق حرة صناعية عابرتين لآسيا، وصولاً إلى أبواب أوروبا وأفريقيا، مقدّر له أن يبدأ ثماره الواسعة في العام 2025 وأن يبلغ نهايته في سياق نمو متسارع ومستديم في العام 2050.

– خلال سنوات ستكون الصين قادرة على امتصاص كميات هائلة من النفط الخليجي والغاز الروسي والإيراني والقطري، كما ستكون قادرة على ضخّ كميات هائلة من بضائعها نصف المصنّعة إلى مئات المناطق الصناعية الحرة التي تبنيها على محطات تتوزّع حول مئات آلاف الكيلومترات من سكك الحديد، وستقذف في الأسواق كميات أكبر من السلع الاستهلاكية الجاهزة للاستهلاك مباشرة، حيث الفولاذ الصيني سيكون جسر العبور بخطوط نقل عملاقة وقطارات سريعة لا مثيل لها في العالم، وستمتلك الصين فوائض مالية بآلاف التريليونات من سلة عملات لا يحتكرها الدولار الأميركي، يدخل بين مصنفاتها الروبل الروسي واليوان الصيني، وسيكون العالم في موضع الطلب والصين في موقع العرض.

– التحدّي الصيني والروسي يقف عند حدود القدرة على تطويع الغرب الأوروبي والأميركي لارتضاء توازن في تبادل خيرات الاقتصاد وخبراته، وتوازن في لعبة القوة، وتوازن في إدارة السياسة، لأنّ المقبل من السنوات سيمنح روسيا والصين فرصة الشراكة بين دولة الإنتاج الأولى التي ستمثلها الصين، ودولة القوة والطاقة الأولى التي تمثلها روسيا، وسيكون صعباً، بل مستحيلاً مقاومة سطوة هذا الثنائي. ومثلما تخلت روسيا عن سباق التسلح لإصلاح اقتصادها قبل عقود، ستجد دول الغرب أنها مَن سيبادر للدعوة للتخلص من الترسانات النووية المكدّسة بلا طائل، لتمكين اقتصاداتها من الانطلاق مجدّداً.

– التوجه شرقاً، الجملة التي قالها الرئيس بشار الأسد ليست مجرد خيار سياسي لبلادنا، ولا هي مكافأة لمن وقفوا معنا فقط، بل هي استباق واعٍ لما هو آت لا محالة.

– شي جينغ بينغ زعيم الصين الجديد، آتٍ بسكك الحديد العملاقة والقطارات السريعة، والسلع الرخيصة والمتعدّدة، احفظوا هذا الاسم جيداً.

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