حرب كشمير بواجهة هندية ـ باكستانية وتورّط دولي مكشوف!

مارس 1, 2019

د. وفيق ابراهيم

تَحوّلَ النزاع الهندي الباكستاني على منطقة كشمير الفاصلة بينهما مشروع حرب فعلية قد تشعل أكثر من شبه القارة الهندية.

لا شك أنّ هناك أسباباً هندية – باكستانية للصراع لم يجد أحدٌ له حلاً حتى الآن لكنه التزم بعد اندلاع حرب كبيرة بين طرفيها في 1972 بحدود الأمر الواقع في إطار هدنة مضبوطة، فما الذي استجدّ حتى يتحضّر البلدان لمواجهة واسعة؟

تصل مساحة كشمير الى 86 الف كلم مربع تقريباً تسيطر الهند على 65 في المئة منها تقريباً والباقي لباكستان كما تحتوي على غالبية إسلامية مقابل أقلية بوذية.

للتوضيح فإنّ انفصال الولايات الإسلامية في الهند بمسمّى جديد هو باكستان كان يُراد منه انفصال كامل الأقليات الإسلامية في شبه القارة الهندية، ونتيجة للبعد الجغرافي عن باكستان بقي ملايين المسلمين في أنحاء أخرى من الهند واحترب البلدان للاستحواذ على كشمير المنطقة الحدودية بينهما.

وكان التوتر السياسي يندلع على كشمير بين الفينة والأخرى لكنه لم يصل ومنذ 1972 إلى مرحلة حرب مكتفياً باشتباكات حدودية محدودة جداً تقتصر على مشاركة قليل من الجنود المنتشرين على حدود كشمير بين البلدين.

لجهة الأسباب الداخلية فإنّ جزءاً هاماً من «الإسلام المتطرف» ذي الجذر القاعدي موجود في باكستان وخصوصاً في كشمير ونما في مئات المراكز الاسلامية التي أسّستها السعودية ولا تزال تموّلها حتى تاريخه بمشاركة إماراتية ودعم من منظمة طالبان من مراكز نفوذها من أفغانستان المحاذية.

فرَفدَ هذا الاتجاه المتطرف التيارات الإسلامية في كشمير التي تعمل على تحرير القسم التي تسيطر عليه الهند فيها.

هناك فريق رابع تولى تقديم التسهيلات اللوجستية وحرية الحركة للتنظيمات الإسلامية وهي المخابرات الباكستانية التي لا يزال الغرب يتهمها حتى الآن بدعم القاعدة وطالبان في أفغانستان وتتهمها الهند حالياً بتوفير ظروف مناسبة لشنّ ضربات على القوات الهندية في كشمير وحتى داخل الهند.

لقد شكلت هذه التحالفات الغطاء الداخلي للعملية التي نفذها تشكيل إرهابي يُدعى «جيش محمد» مستهدفاً فيها كتيبة للجيش الهندي في مركز انتشاره في كشمير وأدّت الى مذبحة موصوفة.

ما أغضب نيودلهي ليست المذبحة فقط، إنما السلوك الباكستاني المتراخي الذي لم يمنح الهجوم الإرهابي الاهمية التي يستحقها.

واكتفت بشجب الهجوم والتعهّد بالتحقيق لكشف الفاعلين وهم معروفون سلفاً من أجهزتها، مشكلين جزءاً من بنية إرهابية تنتشر في معظم الجزء الباكستاني من كشمير.

لذلك حاولت الهند تنظيم ردّ عسكري يستبقُ فكرة مواصلة الهجمات على قواتها، فكانت الغارة الجوية الهندية على مواقع «جيش محمد» وتبيّن انّ باكستان كانت تتوقع مثل هذا الردّ فجابهته بشكل صارم الأمر الذي دفع بالبلدين لحشد قواتهما على حدوديهما في كشمير في حركات تصعيدية قد تتدحرج نحو حرب بين بلدين نوويين، وتعهّدت باكستان بإعادة طيار هندي أسقطت طائرته مقابل توقف الاستنفار الهندي.

تكشف هذه التفاصيل انّ أقساماً من المخابرات الباكستانية تعمل بإيحاء خارجي قابل للمضاعفة إذا كانت الهند العدو التقليدي هي المستهدف.

والسؤال هنا، لماذا يستهدفُ هذا الإيحاء الخارجي لمخابرات اسلام أباد الهند؟ وماذا فعلت؟

لم تفعل الهند ما يعادي علاقاتها الإقليمية والدولية، لكنها استمرّت بشراء النفط من إيران في حركة كسر للمقاطعة الأميركية التي تمنع العالم من علاقات اقتصادية طبيعية مع طهران، وهذا استفز الأميركيين ولم يتمكّن ولي العهد السعودي محمد بن سلمان في زيارته الأخيرة للهند من إقناع حكامها بشراء نفط سعودي بسعر تشجيعي مقابل وقف شراء النفط الإيراني.

أما السلوك الهندي الأهمّ الذي يستفزّ دوائر القرار في واشنطن فيتعلق بانفتاح الهند على روسيا والصين في مؤتمر يُهيّئ لتحالف جديد ترى فيه واشنطن «المكوّن العالمي الوحيد» الجدير بمجابهة الامبراطورية الأميركية المتراجعة.

هذا ما دفع بالبيت الأبيض إلى بناء خطة من مستويين: زعزعة الاستقرار الداخلي الهندي بواسطة الإسلام المتطرف الذي لا يصيبه في كشمير فقط، بل داخل الهند أيضاً حيث تنتشر أقليات إسلامية كبيرة.

فكانت بداية الخطة في هجوم جيش محمد في كشمير وبذلك يكسب الأميركيون على مستويين: إضعاف الهند داخلياً والاستمرار في تشويه علاقة الإسلام بالأديان الاخرى، والعالم عموماً.

من جانب آخر، يواصل الأميركيون عبثاً محاولة الحدّ من الصعود الصيني بمفاوضات تتحسّن وتسوء إلا انها لا تستطيع كبح الاندفاع الصيني نحو حلف مع الهند وروسيا يبدو ضرورياً لكسر أحادية التسلط الأميركي على العالم.

فهل يجد الأميركيون ضرورة لخلق ظروف مؤاتية لتفجير حرب كبيرة بين الهند وباكستان؟

الموضوع جدير بالانتباه لانه يندرج في إطار إشعال الأميركيين لكامل الحروب في العالم.

أليست واشنطن من احتلّ افغانستان والعراق وسورية وقسماً من أميركا اللاتينية، وتستعدّ لمغامرة عسكرية في فنزويلا، وهناك ليبيا المدمّرة وتونس المتأرجحة ومصر المتدهورة والسودان الذي يتحضّر لحروب أهلية، أليس الأميركيون من ينشر الصواريخ في شرق أوروبا؟

يتبيّن أنّ على روسيا والصين مهمة وقف مشروع الحرب الباكسانية الهندية بمفاوضات معمّقة لأنها حرب أميركية تستهدفهم أيضاً وتقع في مواجهة حدودهم السياسية وأمنهم الداخلي.

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Pakistan to Release Indian Pilot on Friday as ‘Peace Gesture’

Pakistan to Release Indian Pilot on Friday as 'Peace Gesture'

TEHRAN (FNA)– Prime Minister Imran Khan stated that the Indian pilot who was captured by Pakistani forces will be released on Friday, after New Delhi called upon Islamabad to release and return the Indian pilot who was arrested by the Pakistan Army after his aircraft had been shot down.

“As a peace gesture we will be releasing him tomorrow,” Khan told parliament in Islamabad on Thursday, RIA Novosti reported.

Khan, making the announcement in an address to both houses of Parliament, added that he tried to reach Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday with a message that he wants to de-escalate tension.

Talking about the incident, he stated that he had feared that India could have launched a missile attack, but the situation was later calmed.

Tensions between India and Pakistan escalated as the two countries engaged in an air battle.

Pakistan claimed on Wednesday that it had downed two Indian warplanes which entered its airspace over the disputed Kashmir border, and captured an Indian pilot.

Speaking at a press conference on Thursday, Indian Armed Forces officials confirmed having shot down a Pakistani Air Force F-16, saying the plane was downed by an Indian MiG 21 Bison on Wednesday in a skirmish.

Indian Air Force officials noted that they were pleased with Pakistan’s decision to return Indian fighter pilot Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, and looked forward to his return to India.

The Indian Armed Forces also stressed that the Indian Navy was put in a high state of readiness amid tensions between the two countries, with its surface, submarine and air components ready to ‘deter and defeat’ any ‘misadventure’ by Pakistan.

It came a day after Indian jets crossed into Pakistan to bomb a Jaish-e-Mohammad terror camp in the Kashmir region.

India’s air raids in Pakistan came after a deadly terrorist attack when a car carrying over 100 pounds of explosives detonated next to a security convoy, killing 45 Indian paramilitary officers. India named Maulana Masood Azhar, the leader of the Jaish-e-Mohammad terrorist group residing in Pakistan, as the person responsible for ordering the attack and accused Pakistan of harboring and protecting terrorists. In turn, Islamabad has rejected the allegations of its involvement in the attack.

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رتجاجات شرق البحر المتوسط والعالم في شبه القارة الهندية

فبراير 28, 2019

محمد صادق الحسيني

ليس مستغرباً أن تصل تبعات التحوّلات الاستراتيجية الكبرى في غرب آسيا وشرق البحر المتوسط إلى الساحة الهندية لتوقظ نزاعاً تاريخياً وجغرافياً وسياسياً مريراً حول مصائر شعوب وأقوام شبه القارة الهندية من جديد…!

قد يكون العامل المباشر في التصعيد الجاري حالياً بين دولتي شبه القارة الهندية النوويتين هو التفجيرات الأخيرة التي حصلت في الهند والتي وجهت نيودلهي أصابع الاتهام فيها الى حكومة إسلام آباد، لكن هذا ليس هو أصل الحكاية، فالرواية الحقيقية لا تكتمل إلا بقراءة بعض فصولها المحجوبة عن الأنظار بسبب صراع الإرادات الإقليمية والدولية المحيطة بالدولتين اللدودتين…!

فرغم كلّ التعثر الذي يرافق إعادة صياغة السلطة في الباكستان على قواعد جديدة بعيدة عن المعسكر الوهابي الإرهابي إقليمياً والامبريالي دولياً من بعد فوز عمران خان برئاسة الحكومة هناك، فإنّ محاولة الصعود الباكستاني المستقلّ نسبياً عن دوائر القرار الدولي أثار ولا يزال حفيظة الهند الخصم اللدود لدولة المسلمين الجديدة الدخول الى نادي لعبة الأمم منذ نهاية الحرب العالمية الثانية…!

فباكستان عمران خان التي استقبلت محمد بن سلمان أخيراً والتي يُراد لها من وجهة نظر أميركية وسعودية ان تصبح ولو في الظاهر «لاعباً إسلامياً» مناكفاً أمام الجمهورية الإسلامية الإيرانية، رافعة لواء المقاومة بوجه الإرهاب الوهابي ولاحتلال الصهيوني، باتت تشكل من جديد بالنسبة للهند قوة يُحسب لها حساب في الصراع الأميركي الروسي في شبه القارة الهندية، وهذا ما يثير حفيظة الهند الواقعة في المدار الروسي عملياً منذ عقود…!

ولأنّ حكومة عمران خان النازعة نحو استقلالية القرار النسبي عن واشنطن قامت مؤخراً في هذا السياق بتكثيف التنسيق السياسي مع الاتحاد الروسي في بعض الملفات الدولية، فإنّ ذلك زاد الطين بلة بالنسبة للهند التي تعتبر نفسها الدولة الأكثر رعاية لدى الروس منذ زمن الحرب الباردة الأميركية السوفياتية، فكيف تدخل الباكستان الى حرمها الدولي هذا دون استئذان…؟

من جهة أخرى فإنّ التحوّلات الجيو سياسية والجيواستراتيجية بين إسلام آباد وبكين إنْ من زاوية الطاقة أو الطرق والمواصلات براً وبحراً أو من زاوية تنامي المشاورات السياسية التي هي أصلاً محكمة بين الجانبين منذ أمد بعيد قد وضعت الباكستان من جديد حليفاً لا يمكن تجاهله للصين الصاعدة عالمياً فإنّ من شأن ذلك أن يثير حفيظة الهند أيضاً لأنها سترى نفسها بين كماشتي واشنطن وبكين من جديد…!

كلّ ذلك جعل نيودلهي أكثر تحفزاً لعمل أيّ شئ يوقف هذا الصعود الباكستاني الإقليمي والدولي المستفز…!

ثم انّ الهند التي تعتبر الباكستان في الأساس وليداً غير شرعي خرج من رحمها قسراً في نهاية الحرب الكونية الثانية، فكيف بها ان تتحمّل هذا الوليد وهو يتحوّل امام عينيها كائناً شرعياً بنظر الدول الكبرى، بل ولاعباً إقليمياً وقوة وازنة في الصراعات الدولية، إضافة إلى تقدّمه بخطى واعدة باتجاه أبواب الدخول لمجموعة بريكس ومنتدى شنغهاي اللذين تعتبرهما الهند جزءاً من الحيّز الحيوي لها دولياً…!

في مثل هذه اللحظة التاريخية الباكستانية الصاعدة يصبح من غير المهمّ لدولة تاريخية عريقة مثل الهند ان تظهر أمام العالم متهمة في كسر قواعد الاشتباك التاريخي – التي تمنع التفجير – والتي حكمت البلدين المتنازعين على الحدود منذ توقف القتال بينهما حول إقليم كشمير منذ عقود، ولتكون هي البادئة بالقصف الجوي على الأراضي الباكستانية لا سيما أنّ الذريعة جاءت مؤاتية، ايّ مكافحة الإرهاب وتحت مسمّى قصف معسكر «جيش محمد» الذي تتهمه نيودلهي بأنه يقف وراء تفجيرات الهند الأخيرة…!

انها لحظة تبدّل موازين القوى في أكثر من ساحة دولية وشبه القارة الهندية ليست استثناءً في هذا العالم المتحوّل في كلّ لحظة وكلّ حين…!

بعدنا طيّبين قولوا الله…

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The Pakistani general who tamed the Saudi crown prince

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Pakistan’s relationship with the UAE and Saudi Arabia is being reshaped by its army chief, Qamar Javed Bajwa

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman walk with Pakistani army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa in Islamabad on 18 February (Handout/PMH/AFP)

Ever since arriving in office, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has made the UAE and Saudi Arabia central to the strategy that his government calls “economic diplomacy“.

Pakistan has been plagued by decades of endemic corruption and feudal dynastic politics, which have brought the country to the brink of economic ruin. So why is the recently concluded trip of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) being seen as a landmark visit with strategic implications not just for their bilateral relationship, but also for Pakistan’s role in the Middle East?

The answer lies with Pakistan Army chief of staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa, who has quietly reset the army’s relations with the Middle East, starting with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

A brief history of Saudi-Pakistani ties

Riyadh has always been an active participant in Pakistan’s domestic affairs, according to Adel al-Jubeir, the Saudi minister of state for foreign affairs.

For decades, analysts and policymakers have written about the Saudi role in Pakistan, with a focus on their military partnership. The former Saudi intelligence chief, Prince Turki bin Faisal, described their bilateral relationship as likely being one of the closest in the world “without any official treaty”.

Never before have the Saudis invested so heavily in Pakistan at the state level, without benefiting a specific politician or general

This is where the problem lay in the past: for too long, military and civilian leaders of Pakistan have benefited from Saudi largesse. Former President Pervez Musharraf admitted to receiving personal favours and financial rewards, and the Saudis have long been dismissive about the corruption of Pakistani leaders.

It is for this reason that the Saudis have always preferred military rule in Pakistan, while former generals have allegedly profited personally, rather than helping Pakistan’s cause. Musharraf has said that under Saudi pressure, he let former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif go, despite court action and question marks over his rule.

The appointment of former army chief General Raheel Sharif as head of the Saudi-funded “Muslim NATO” raised many eyebrows in Pakistan, given the biased nature of the alliance and the absence of key Muslim countries, including Indonesia, Iran, Algeria and Iraq.

Why was this visit different?

Much fanfare in Islamabad accompanied the recent trip by MBS, with a national holiday declared in the capital and the city in virtual shutdown over the arrival of the Saudi entourage. Never before have the Saudis invested so heavily in Pakistan at the state level, without benefiting a specific politician or general. 

The key aspect missing from previous visits was the term “strategic”. In this latest visit, Jubeir emphatically stated that none of the Saudi largesse was charity, but rather an investment. This business-minded, progressive approach marks a significant shift from previous relationships.

Khan and MBS ride in a carriage in Islamabad on 18 February (Bandar al-Jaloud/Saudi Royal Palace/AFP)
Khan and MBS ride in a carriage in Islamabad on 18 February (Bandar al-Jaloud/Saudi Royal Palace/AFP)

Before the MBS visit, leading Saudi expert Mohammed al-Sulami led a delegation that for the first time included academics, former ambassadors, generals and Saudis with active experience concerning Pakistan. It was concluded that strategic ties would be established over personal ties.

Analyst Ibrahim al-Othaimin also wrote about this last year, arguing that Pakistani-Saudi ties were gradually moving out of the personal domain and into the strategic. One of the key reasons for this strategic push has been the defence diplomacy of Javed Bajwa, as highlighted by Sulami.

Changing the equation

Pakistan’s refusal in 2015 to take part in the Yemen conflict rang alarm bells in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The UAE went so far as to say Pakistan would pay a “heavy price” for its “ambiguous stand”, and led a media campaign against Pakistan when Islamabad voted in favour of Turkey for Expo 2020.

In the years before Bajwa came to office in November 2016, the UAE had drifted closer to India, even sending its troops to take part in an Indian military parade. The logic in the UAE and Saudi Arabia was that “we pay the Pakistanis, so we should get support”. This reflected decades of Pakistani subservience to Saudi rulers, which failed to put the interests of the state first.

Not cricket: As Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Imran Khan is facing his greatest test

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In 2015, Saudi officials said that Pakistan failed to provide an adequate rationale for its Yemen decision. Bajwa subsequently embarked on a frantic diplomacy mission, explaining to Riyadh and Abu Dhabi that Pakistan stood ready to help, but had strategic constraints.

He said that while Pakistan would aid the two Gulf countries in defence, it would not take sides in the proxy war with Iran or the Qatar blockade.

Under Bajwa, Qatar’s emir publicly thanked the Pakistan Army for strengthening the Qatari military and playing a positive role in regional issues. The emir was clearly talking about the Saudi-led blockade, as well as bilateral cooperation in Afghan peace talks.

A strategic and equal partner

In addition to taking on the role of mentor for several Gulf armies, Bajwa became the first Pakistan Army chief in decades to make an official visit to Iran, where he called for strategic defence ties. In diplomatic and military circles behind the scenes, and according to my sources, Bajwa has said that MBS needs time, and that he, Bajwa, would play a role in reducing Gulf tensions.

Unlike in the past, Riyadh is viewing Bajwa and Khan as its equals rather than its puppets

So, while the headlines have focused on Khan’s public embrace of MBS, on the sidelines, the man who has reset the relationship between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia – and Pakistan and the UAE – has been Bajwa. He has made Pakistan a strategic and equal partner, rather than a proxy in a Middle East conflict.

Even as the Saudis denounced Iran from Islamabad, the message from Pakistan was one of cooperation with Tehran. Pakistani-Saudi ties are taking on a strategic dimension, yet without surrendering Pakistan’s relations with other states in the region. Unlike in the past, Riyadh is viewing Bajwa and Khan as its equals rather than its puppets.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.

Kamal Alam
Kamal Alam is a Visiting Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). He specialises in contemporary military history of the Arab world and Pakistan, he is a Fellow for Syrian Affairs at The Institute for Statecraft, and is a visiting lecturer at several military staff colleges across the Middle East, Pakistan and the UK.

Zionist Media Cites Bin Salman’s Failure to Provoke Pakistan, India & China against Iran

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Zionist Media Cites Bin Salman’s Failure to Provoke Pakistan, India & China against Iran

The Pakistani State-run TV Channel muted the broadcast of the speech delivered by the Saudi state minister for the foreign affairs Adel Al-Jubeir while he was tackling the Iranian cause, one Zionist political analyst said.

The Israeli media channels cited the Saudi crown prince Mohammad bin Salman’s failure to  provoke Pakistan, India and China against Iran, adding that India rejected his offer to sell it the same amount of oil it purchases from Tehran for a lower price.

The Zionist analysts considered that Bin Salman tried to build more political partnerships and alliances in order to improve his conditions in his relation with the United States.

Source: Al-Manar English Website

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Iran’s Soleimani warns Pakistan against Saudi attempts to destroy it

Major General Qassem Soleimani, The commander of the Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps

Major General Qassem Soleimani, The commander of the Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps

Thu Feb 21, 2019

Iran’s Major General Qassem Soleimani has cautioned Pakistan against the true intentions behind Saudi Arabia’s pumping of billions of dollars into its troubled economy, saying the Riyadh regime is after breaking the Asian state apart by pitting it against its neighbors.

The commander of the Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) once again vowed on Thursday that Tehran will avenge the blood of those who lost their lives in last week’s bloody attack carried out by Pakistan-based terrorists in southeastern Iran.

It worries Iran that the Pakistani nation and government allow Saudi money to end up in the hands of these Takfiri terrorists, said the senior general, adding, “Saudi-sponsored terrorists on Pakistani soil are causing trouble for all of the country’s neighbors, and Pakistan must fully realize this matter.”

“We tell the people of Pakistan that they should not permit Saudi Arabia to destroy their country with its money,” said Major General Soleimani, adding that the Asian country must not turn into a place for activities that disturb regional states such as Iran, India and Afghanistan.

Last week, a bomber — identified by the IRGC as Pakistani national Hafiz Mohammad Ali — slammed his explosives-laden vehicle into a bus carrying off-duty members of the elite Iranian force in Sistan and Baluchestan Province bordering Pakistan, killing 27 of them.

The Pakistan-based Jaish ul-Adl Takfiri terrorist group — which has ties to al-Qaeda and the Al Saud regime — claimed responsibility.

In the wake of the fatal terror attack, the IRGC warned Saudi Arabia and its vassal state, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), of retaliatory measures for backing the terrorists on behalf of the US and the Israeli regime. It also urged Pakistan to change its policy towards Jaish ul-Adl.

Soleimani further said Iran does not want mere condolences, but concrete action from neighboring Pakistan, asking, “Can’t you, as a nuclear-armed state, deal with a hundreds-strong terrorist group in the region?”

“Iran is a safe neighbor for Pakistan and we will not threaten this country, but we will exact revenge against the Takfiri mercenaries, who have the blood of our youths on their hands” no matter where in the world they are,” Soleimani said.

The assault preceded a controversial visit by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to cash-strapped Pakistan, where he received a lavish welcome.

During bin Salman’s stay, Riyadh and Islamabad inked several agreements in diverse sectors worth as much as $20bn for Pakistan, which is in desperate need of cash amid its central bank’s severe lack of foreign reserves.

The Saudi royal’s visit also coincided with a fresh wave of tensions between India and Pakistan over Kashmir.

The tensions broke out last week when 44 Indian troops lost their lives in a bomb attack in New Delhi-controlled Kashmir claimed by Pakistan-based militants.

New Delhi accuses Islamabad of being behind the assault.

In Afghanistan, Pakistan also stands accused of supporting the militants operating against the Kabul government.

General Suleimani Cites Imam Khomeini’s Assertion on Palestinian Cause, Danger of Wahhabism

February 21, 2019

Commander of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) elite Quds force, Major General Qassem Suleimani

Iran’s Quds Force Chief, Major General Qassem Suleimani, stated that the late Imam Khomeini used to underscore the importance of the Palestinian cause and the danger of Wahhabism.

Suleimani added that Imam Khomeini highlighted the original Islam and the religious deviations which appeared in certain countries during some epochs.

Source: Al-Manar English Website

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Imran Khan’s “Socialist Revolution” in Pakistan

Global Research, February 20, 2019

In order to assess the prospects of Imran Khan’s Pakistan Movement for Justice (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf) as a political institution, we need to study its composition. With the benefit of hindsight, it seems the worst decision Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif took in his political career after returning from exile in November 2007 was his refusal to accept Musharraf-allied Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) defectors back into the folds of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N).

After that show of moral uprightness in the essentially unprincipled realpolitik of Pakistan, the cronies of Pakistan’s former dictator General Pervez Musharraf joined Imran Khan’s Pakistan Movement for Justice in droves and gave birth to a third nation-wide political force in Pakistan besides Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP).

If we take a cursory look at the Pakistan Movement for Justice’s membership, it is a hodgepodge of electable politicians from various political parties, but most of all from the former stalwarts of the Musharraf-allied Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q).

Here is a list of a few names who were previously the acolytes of General Pervez Musharraf and are now the ‘untainted’ leaders of Imran Khan’s Pakistan Movement for Justice which has launched a nation-wide crusade against corruption in Pakistan: Jahangir Tareen, a billionaire businessman who was formerly a minister in General Musharraf’s cabinet; Sheikh Rasheed, although he has not formally joined Imran Khan’s political party, he has become closer to Imran Khan than any other leader except Imran Khan’s virtual sidekick, Jahangir Tareen, and has been appointed minister for railways in Imran Khan’s cabinet; and Shah Mehmood Qureshi, a former stalwart of Pakistan People’s Party who served as Pakistan’s foreign minister from 2008 to 2011 until he was disgracefully forced to resign after the Raymond Davis affair and the US Navy Seals operation in Abbottabad in 2011 in which Osama bin Laden was killed, though he has once again been appointed foreign minister in Imran Khan’s new cabinet last year.

I would implore the readers to allow me to scribble a tongue-in-cheek rant here on Imran Khan’s “Naya Pakistan (New Pakistan) Revolution”: This struggle for revolution isn’t the first of its kind in Pakistan and it won’t be the last. The first such “socialist revolution” took place back in 1953 against the unjust status quo of Pakistan’s slain Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan and Khawaja Nazimuddin’s Muslim League.

The revolutionary heroes of yore, Ghulam Muhammad, Iskander Mirza and General Ayub Khan, laid the foundations of the “dictatorship of the proletariat” in Pakistan. The first lasted from 1958 to 1971, and its outcome was the massacre of hundreds of thousands of Bangladeshis and the separation of East Pakistan.

The second such “socialist revolution” occurred against the “elected dictatorship” of Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in 1977 and the “revolutionary messiah,” General Zia-ul-Haq, ruled Pakistan from 1977 to 1988 with an iron hand. After sufficiently consolidating the gains of the “revolution” in Pakistan, he also exported the “revolution” throughout the Af-Pak region.

The immediate outcome of the “revolution” was the destabilization of the whole region. It spawned many tadpole “revolutionaries” whose names we now hear in the news every day, such as the Taliban, the Haqqanis, Jaish-e-Muhammad and Lashkar-e-Taiba.

The last such “Marxist-Leninist revolution” took place against the “monopoly capitalism” and “corrupt cronyism” of Benazir Bhutto’s People’s Party and Nawaz Sharif’s Muslim League in 1999.

On a serious note, however, the reason why Imran Khan is desperate now is that despite forming the provincial government and ruling the northwestern Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province for five years from 2013 to 2018 and then forming the government in the center last year, he has no tangible achievements to show. Criticizing the government from opposition benches and making electoral promises is always easy, but showing visible improvement in the affairs of governance is a hard sell.

The electoral pledges of cracking down on corruption and doing away with bureaucratic red-tape might earn him a few brownie points in front of his immature audience, but to treat the malady of corruption, we must first accurately identify the root causes of corruption. Corruption and economy are inter-linked. The governments of prosperous, developed countries can afford to pay adequate salaries to their public servants; and if public servants are paid well, then they don’t have the incentive to be corrupt.

There are two types of corruption: need-based corruption and greed-based corruption. Need-based corruption is the kind of corruption in which a poor police constable, who has a large family to support, earns a meager salary; he then augments his salary by taking bribes to make ends meet. I am not justifying his crime, but only describing the factual position.

Whereas the instance of greed-based corruption, which is often legitimized, is the corporate exploitation of resources and workforce by behemoth multinational corporations whose wealth is measured in hundreds of billions of dollars, far more than the total size of the economies of developing countries.

After establishing the fact that corruption and economy are inter-linked, we need to ask Prime Minister Imran Khan what is his economic vision to improve Pakistan’s economy, and on what basis does he claim to improve the economy on a nation-wide scale when he failed to make any visible improvement in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province during the Pakistan Movement for Justice’s five-year rule in the province from 2013 to 2018?

Finally, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) are the experienced political parties in Pakistan. They learned their lesson from the politics of confrontation during the 1990s that Pakistan’s military establishment employs the Machiavellian divide-and-conquer tactic of hobnobbing with weaker political parties against stronger political forces in order to disrupt the democratic process and maintain the establishment’s stranglehold on its traditional domain, the security and defense policy of Pakistan.

The new entrant in Pakistan’s political landscape, Imran Khan’s Pakistan Movement for Justice, will also learn this lesson after paying the price of colluding with the establishment, but by then, it might be too late.

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Nauman Sadiq is an Islamabad-based attorney, columnist and geopolitical analyst focused on the politics of Af-Pak and the Middle East regions, neocolonialism and petro-imperialism. He is a frequent contributor to Global Research.

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