ماذا سيسمع أردوغان من بوتين وماذا تبلّغ نتنياهو؟

يناير 23, 2019

ناصر قنديل

– تملأ الصحف والمواقع الإعلامية تحليلات ومعلومات منسوبة لمصادر «مطلعة» تدور حول ربط الغارات الإسرائيلية في سورية بالسعي التركي لمنطقة آمنة متفق عليها مع الأميركيين، واعتبار الحركة الجارية في جنوب سورية وشمالها لإضعاف مشروع الدولة السورية، وصولاً لإخراج إيران وحزب الله، وترتيب العلاقات التركية الكردية، بتوافق أميركي روسي، ويورد أصحاب «المصادر المطلعة» استنتاجاتهم بما يسمّونه الصمت الروسي على الغارات الإسرائيلية في ظل عودة اللقاءات بين وفود عسكرية إسرائيلية وروسية، من جهة، ومن جهة مقابلة بالتوافق الأميركي التركي بعد خلاف شديد على المنطقة الآمنة، والإعلان الكردي الإيجابي تجاهها.

– التدقيق في سياق المنطق الذي تُبنى عليه هذه الاستنتاجات، يمكن النظر إليها كجزء متمّم للاعتداءات الإسرائيلية والتهديدات التركية، الهادفتين لامتصاص بعض المخاطر المترتبة على الانسحاب الأميركي ومحاولة تقاسم ملء الفراغ الناتج عنه، والسعي لتطويق وقتل المناخ الذي يوحي بانتصار الدولة السورية ورئيسها، والتناوب التركي الإسرائيلي برعاية أميركية لتقاسم المسرح الإعلامي السياسي العسكري ليس إلا ترجمة لهذا البعد، فتخيّل روسيا العائدة لطلب الرضا الإسرائيلي بعد ترويض العسكرية الإسرائيلية وردعها، هو خروج عن المنطق، وأن يحدث هذا في زمن الانسحاب الأميركي، محض خرافة، والتمعّن في الرسائل الروسية التي نقلتها الصحافة الإسرائيلية تحذيراً من التمادي في اللعب العسكري والأمني داخل سورية، يقدم الكثير لمن يريد ألا يكون ضحية الحملات الإعلامية، والتدقيق في مفهوم المنطقة الآمنة يطرح سؤالاً جوهرياً حول كيفية إقامتها، بتوغل عسكري تركي تعتبره سورية عدواناً واحتلالاً، وهو مختلف كلياً عن الوجود التركي في إدلب الذي حاز بعد معركة حلب قبل عامين الغطاء الروسي الإيراني وفقاً لمسار أستانة، وهل تملك تركيا القدرة والإرادة على منع الجيش السوري من الانتشار في المناطق التي سينسحب منها الأميركيون بحظر جوي، في ظل الوجود الروسي، وهل يتبقى شيء من مسار أستانة إذا تم ذلك؟

– ما تسوقه «المصادر المطلعة» لا يعني إلا القفز فوق ما تقوله وقائع السنتين الماضيتين، لجهة أن تركيا لو كانت بوضع يتيح الانفراد، أو الاكتفاء بتغطية أميركية، لما كان مسار أستانة، الذي توّج هزيمة حلب لتركيا وجماعاتها المسلحة، وأن «إسرائيل» لو كانت بوضع يتيح لها الانفراد الموازي، أو الاكتفاء بتغطية أميركية، لما كان الامتناع عن دخول الأجواء السورية، الذي توّج هزيمة الجنوب السوري للجماعات المسلحة المدعومة من «إسرائيل»، كما كان الحال الأميركي في قاعدة التنف وهم يرون معقل الجماعات المسلحة في الغوطة يتهاوى أمام ضربات الجيش السوري تحت أنظارهم، من دون أن يقدموا لها شيئاً وهي التي كان اتصالها بقاعدة التنف عبر الصحراء يشطر سورية إلى شطرين، وكل ذلك جرى والأميركيون كانوا ما قبل حديث الانسحاب، والروس كانوا ما قبل تذوق طعم الإنجاز، فكيف يُعقل أن تقبل روسيا عملياً بتقسيم سورية، وتقاسمها بما يعني بقاء الحرب فيها مفتوحة، وهل تفك عقد التحالف مع إيران وسورية وقوى المقاومة، وتخاطر بهزيمة حضورها في المنطقة وهي تنتصر، خشية إغضاب تركيا و»إسرائيل»، وهي لم تفعل ذلك وهما في ذروة القوة، ترتضي فعله وهما مهزومتان؟

– اليوم سيستقبل الرئيس الروسي فلاديمير بوتين الرئيس التركي رجب أردوغان، والهدف التركي هو بحث المنطقة الآمنة، وسيسمع أردوغان كلاماً روسياً حاسماً حول احترام الشرعية السورية التي يمثلها الرئيس السوري بشار الأسد والجيش السوري، ورفض أي وجود عسكري على الأرض السورية خارج نطاق هذه الشرعية، وسيسمع كلاماً واضحاً وحاسماً عن التمسك بوحدة وسيادة سورية، وعن الضوابط التي تحكم مسار أستانة واستحالة التسامح مع انتهاكه، كما وصل لمسامع نتنياهو ما قاله المسؤولون الروس نقلاً عن الرئيس بوتين، بأن الحركة الإسرائيلية ستدفع المنطقة إلى مواجهة ستؤدي إلى تصادم إسرائيلي مع روسيا، وعندها يجب أن يكون كل طرف مدرك مسؤولياته، وثبات كلام الرئيس بوتين لكليهما يكفي إثباته بما يُقال لأحدهما، وطالما أن اللقاء اليوم سينتهي ببيان يمكن قراءة ما بين سطوره، سيكون مناسبة للإثبات والنفي لكل الذين يريدون التحقق.

Related Videos

Related Articles

Advertisements

The Russian pension chicken is coming home to roost… (UPDATED)

The Saker

The Russian pension chicken is coming home to roost… (UPDATED)

January 18, 2019

[This article was written for the Unz Review]

According to RT, citing a Levada Center poll,

Over 50 percent of Russians are disappointed in the government of Dmitry Medvedev, which, they believe, is unable to curb growing prices and provide jobs for people, a new poll has revealed.  Some 23 percent said they were absolutely sure that the government must resign, with another 30 percent telling Levada-Center that they were also leaning toward this opinion.  This means that a total of 53 percent would like the country to have a new cabinet. Trust in the government has crumbled since September, when only 23 percent advocated its resignation. Meanwhile, the proportion of people who believed the government should stay in charge was 40 percent, with 14 percent expressing full confidence in the cabinet, and 26 percent saying that resignation wouldn’t be the best idea.

Source: http://www.levada.ru/en/ Jan 15th 2019 (details here: https://www.levada.ru/en/ratings/)

This was very predictable and, in fact, I did predict just that when I wrote “A comment I just saw on the YouTube chat of the inauguration was succinct and to the point: “Путин кинул народ – мы не за Медведева голосовали” or “Putin betrayed the people – we did not vote for Medvedev”. This is going to be a very widely shared feeling, I am afraid (…) Medvedev is unpopular and that most Russians hoped to see a new face. Yet Putin ignored this public sentiment. That is a very worrying sign, in my opinion“.  In a subsequent article I wrote that “it is quite clear to me that a new type of Russian opposition is slowly forming. Well, it always existed, really – I am talking about people who supported Putin and the Russian foreign policy and who disliked Medvedev and the Russian internal policies. Now the voice of those who say that Putin is way too soft in his stance towards the Empire will only get stronger. As will the voices of those who speak of a truly toxic degree of nepotism and patronage in the Kremlin (again, Mutko being the perfect example). When such accusations came from rabid pro-western liberals, they had very little traction, but when they come from patriotic and even nationalist politicians (Nikolai Starikov for example) they start taking on a different dimension. For example, while the court jester Zhirinovskii and his LDPR party loyally supported Medvedev, the Communist and the Just Russia parties did not. Unless the political tension around figures like Kudrin and Medvedev is somehow resolved (maybe a timely scandal?), we might witness the growth of a real opposition movement in Russia, and not one run by the Empire. It will be interesting to see if Putin’s personal ratings will begin to go down and what he will have to do in order to react to the emergence of such a real opposition“.

Think about it in this way: we know from ALL the past elections that the pro-Western segment of the Russian population is somewhere around 1-3% (that is why they cannot make it into the Duma).  But let’s generously give that hardcore, liberal, opposition 5%, for argument’s sake.  So if 53% of Russians want a new cabinet, and if 5% of Russians are hardcore pro-Western liberals, then who are the remaining 48%?

Or in this way: if 53% of Russians want a new cabinet, and if Putin’s approval rating is still somewhere in the 65% range, who are those Russians who like Putin but dislike the Medvedev government?

There is an easy cop-out argument which I´ve often offered to explain away this fact:

Levada Center is officially classified as a “foreign agent” under Russian law.  This makes sense: for one thing, Levada Center receives most of its financing from abroad, including the USA and even the Pentagon!  Furthermore, Levada is staffed by liberals (in the Russian meaning of the word which really means “pro-US”) whose biases are also reflected in their work.  However, while this is all true, Levada is still credible enough to be cited even by Russian officials.  Finally, the kind of results Levada publishes are often generally similar to the finding of the official VTsIOMpolling institution, not down to the percentage point, but often reflecting similar trends (check out the VTsIOM English language page here: https://wciom.com/).  So the fact that Putin is much more popular than Medvedev or that the majority of Russian people are unhappy with the government really is not in doubt.

So regardless of the actual numbers, it is clear that the Russian government is only popular with those whom it allows to make a lot of money (corporations and various millionaires and billionaires) and that everybody else strongly dislikes it.

And yet, recently Putin was asked if he was happy with the government and his reply was “on the whole, yes“.

This type of political yoga is hard to sustain in the long term: if Putin is the champion of the interests of the common people, and if most common people feel that the government cares more for millionaires and billionaires, then how can the President say that he is “on the whole happy” with the government?

It is truly a crying shame that the basics of Marxism-Leninism is not taught in schools and colleges any more (even some self-described “Communists” are clearly clueless about what Marx, Lenin or even Hegel taught!).  Not because the solutions advocated by Marx and his followers are so universally effective, but because one can use the Marxist-Leninist conceptual toolkit to better understand the world we live in and, one can do this without necessarily endorsing the solutions offered by Marxism.  For example, in the West at least, very few people are aware of this very simple Marxist-Leninist definition of what a state, any state, really is.  According to Lenin, the state is simply an “apparatus of coercion and violence by which the ruling class governs the society“.  Specifically Lenin wrote:

In essence, the state is ruling apparatus created from the human society. When such a group of people appears, one which is only concerned with ruling over others, and which for that purpose needs a coercion apparatus which can force people to obey by means of jails, special units, armed forces, etc, – that is the moment when the state appears (Lenin, collective works, vol 39, page 69).

From a Marxist point of view, any state is always and by definition the dictatorship of the ruling class, which is a good thing, at least according to the Marxists, when this ruling class is the workers and people, and a very bad thing when the ruling class is the plutocracy.

In the post-modern West, where political discourse has been reduced to a particularly nauseating form of intellectual flatulence, the very notion of “class” and “class warfare” has been fully replaced with vapid (pseudo-) identity politics which completely obfuscate all the real issues and problems our world is dealing with.  Thus, by removing the concepts and categories needed to understand the nature of the struggle which is taking place internationally, but also inside each of the countries currently living under the AngloZionist yoke, the leaders of the Empire have deprived the people they rule over from the means to understand why and how they are oppressed.  All that nonsense about “gay” rights, gun control, #meetoo, the many sex scandals, the struggle for racial identity (White or Black or any other), abortion, drugs and all the rest of the crap we are fed on a daily basis by the AngloZionist propaganda machine are primarily a distraction to keep the eyes of the general population from the real issues.  In a way, this zombification and re-direction to fake topics serves exactly the same function as the red cape of the bullfighter: to keep the bull busy with trying to gore a harmless red piece of cloth while completely missing the real cause of his suffering and eventual death.

From that point of view, the Russian people are much better informed and have a much better understanding of what is going on.  For example, while in the West the people define “democracy” as “people power” (or something similar), in Russia the joke is that “democracy is the power of the democrats” which, in Russia, is a general codeword/euphemism for “pro-US wealthy liberal” who want to turn Russia into some kind of “bigger Poland” or something equally uninspiring.

Various pro-Western “intellectuals” like to say that this is an old Russian pathology: to say that the Czar (President) is very good, but his court (the Ministers) are bad and that this makes absolutely no sense. These are the folks who go as far as denying the existence of a struggle between what I call Eurasian Sovereignists (roughly Putin supporters) and Atlantic Integrationists (roughly Medvedev and the “economic block” of this government).

The folks who deny this remind me of something Berthold Brecht once wrote after the 1953 uprising in Berlin in a short poem entitled “The Solution”: (emphasis added)

After the uprising of the 17th of June
The Secretary of the Writers’ Union
Had leaflets distributed in the Stalinallee
Stating that the people
Had forfeited the confidence of the government
And could win it back only
By redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier
In that case for the government
To dissolve the people
And elect another?

This deep alienation from the Russian masses, this notion that the Russian people have, yet again, failed to heed the “wise words” of the “progressive intelligentsia” and other (mainly financial) “elites” has plagued the Russian ruling classes since Peter I and is still at the very core of their worldview.  Believe you me, the Russian “liberals” and the folks in the West who deny that there is any 5th column in Russia are psychologically and politically joined at the hip: neither one of them can accept this.  Furthermore, both the Russian “liberals” and the western believers in the values of “democracy” and “free market capitalism” share exactly the same worldview: they want the Russian people to become “Europeans” not in a geographical sense, of course (geographically speaking most Russian live in the European part of Russia), but culturally!  This is what the Popes wanted, this is what the French Freemasons wanted, this is what the Nazis wanted, and this is what the AngloZionists want.  That dream to turn Russians into Europeans while totally cleansing them from any “Russian-ness” is what united *all* the invaders of Russia over the centuries.

But the “stubborn” Russian people just don’t seem to “get it” and, for some totally mysterious reason, they always resist all these “benevolent” western attempts at “civilizing” them.

This is exactly what we see today: Putin and his Eurasian Sovereignists try as hard as they can to *sovereignize* Russia; in other words, they want to make Russia *truly* Russian again.  Sounds basic, but that is categorically unacceptable to the Russian plutocrats and to their supporters in the West.  Thus any kind of defense of the Russian-ness of Russia is immediately and contemptuously dismissed as “national leftism”, “nationalism” or, God forbid!, “monarchism”.  And when the person trying to make the argument that Russia ought to be Russian uses Marxist concepts or categories, these arguments are also dismissed out of hand as an “outdated rhetoric of a system which has failed and discredited itself”.  What they fail to realize is to say that the collapse of the Soviet Union was due primarily/solely to the Marxist or Communist ideology is just as stupid as blaming the current collapse of democracy in the USA on the writings of the Founding Fathers rather than on the SOB politicians who are destroying this country day after day after day.  Tell me: when the USA finally bites the dust, will you simply declare that “democracy is dead” and that the “collapse of the USA proved that democracy is not a viable regime”?  So yes, the Soviet Union did indeed collapse, broken into 15 pieces by its own ruling elite (the Nomenklatura), but the ideas contained in the Marxist-Leninist ideology have not only not been “defeated” – they have not even been challenged (more on this issue here).

But, thank God! most Russians are still not willing to be incorporated into the “European cultural Borg collective“, at least not in the cultural sense.  And in spite of 300 years of oppression by various pro-western regimes (with various degrees of russophobia, not all were equally bad), the Russian people still want to remain Russian, not just by speaking a language, but by having a ruler and a regime in power which they feel defends their interests and not the interests of the ruling class. They want to live in their own civilizational realm, and not the kind of post-Christian intellectual desert the West has become.

Many decades of rabid russophobia by the rulers of the AngloZionist Empire have convinced the Russian people that they have no friends in the European or North American ruling elites and that true freedom comes through liberation, not submission.  That, and the appalling example of the consequences of the “Euromaidan” in the Ukraine.

At the end of the day, it is not about GDP or the availability of cheap consumer goods.  At the end of the day, it all depends on real, moral, ethical, spiritual and civilizational values.  This was true 1000 years ago and this is still true today.  At least in Russia.

It is very important to keep a close eye on this trend: the appearance of slowly but surely growing (truly) patriotic opposition (as opposed to the CIA-paid clowns in the Russian liberal camp).  As for the “official” opposition (LDPR, KPRF and the Just Russia), they might decide to grow a few teeth, initially small, baby teeth only, but if this trend accelerates, they might decide to look a tad more credible.  Until now the rather lame and ridiculous LDPR & KPRF parties are just a collective form of court jesters with no real opposition potential.  Just look at how the KPRF, thoroughly discredited by their crazy choice of the millionaire Grudinin for candidate, jumped onto the pension reform PR-disaster to suddenly try to launch a referendum.  This would never have happened in the past.

The political landscape in Russia is becoming more complicated, which is both good and bad.  It is bad because Putin’s personal political credit suffers, however modestly for now, from his continuous inability to purge the Kremlin from the 5th columnists, but it is also good because if things get bad enough Putin will have no choice but to (finally!) get rid of at least the most notorious 5th columnists.  But fundamentally the Russian people need to decide. Do they really want to live in a western-style capitalist society (with all the russophobic politics and the adoption of the terminally degenerate “culture” such a choice implies), or do they want a “social society” (to use Putin’s own words) – meaning a society in which social and economic justice and the good of the country are placed above corporate and personal profits.

You could say that this is a battle of greed vs ethics.

The future of Russia, and much of the world, will depend on the outcome of this battle.

The Saker

UPDATE: well, just as I was mentioning that the fact that Levada Center and VTsIOM mostly agree, at least on trends, the Russian media is now reporting that the latter now also is reporting a drop in the popularity of Putin.  And just to make things worse, the Russian authorities have deported an (in-)famous anti-Nazi Ukrainian journalist, Elena Boiko, to the Nazi-occupied Ukraine in spite of the fact that Boiko had requested political asylum in Russia.  Now, Boiko is a very controversial person for sure (and, personally, not *at all* my cup of tea), but the sole fact that Russia would deport ANY anti-Nazi activist to the Nazi-occupied Ukraine is disgusting and revolting.  And, sure enough, the bovine-excreta is already hitting the proverbial fan as now members of the Duma, journalists and various personalities are demanding explanations for this absolutely stupid and deeply immoral act.  Sadly,  can only agree with Nikolai Starikov who speaks of a “liberal revanche” following the “Russian Spring” of 2014.  If this kind of nonsense continues we will see a further deterioration of Putin’s personal rating along with a gradual degradation of the Russian political environment.

Bombs Over Damascus: Has israel (apartheid state) Crossed a Russian Red Line in Syria?

Bombs Over Damascus: Has Israel Crossed a Russian Red Line in Syria?

Friday, citing Russian sources the Palestinian-run, London-based, pan-Arabic newspaper Al-Quds Al-Arabi reported that Russia has told Israel it will not tolerate further air strikes near the Damascus International Airport:

According to the report, which cited Russian sources, Moscow has told Jerusalem that it intends to renovate the Damascus International Airport, and that further attacks by Israel will not be welcomed.

The Russians say that the air strikes are causing airlines from the region that want to resume operations in Syria to reconsider their decision.

However, instead of this bringing calm, Israel instead launched a yet another series of attack around Damascus and against its main airport:

For two days in a row, Israel Defence Forces have been carrying out strikes on what the IDF claims are Iranian targets in Syria.

The Russian military has announced that tSyrian air defences had destroyed over 30 cruise missiles and guided bombs, when repelling an Israeli strike.

According to the Russian Defence Ministry, the Israeli strike killed four Syrian servicemen and injured 6 others. In addition to this, the air raid has “partially damaged the infrastructure of the Damascus international airport”, the statement says.

The announcement comes shortly after the IDF press service announced that Israel had targeted alleged “military facilities of [Iranian unit] Quds Force in Syria, including weapons depots, mainly in the area of Damascus International Airport, Iranian intelligence center, Iranian training camp” in response to a missile strike in disputed Golan Heights. According to the IDF, during the raid, dozens of Syrian anti-aircraft missiles were fired, despite an unequivocal warning not to allow open fire.

Following earlier Syrian TV reports after Damascus had been rocked by powerful blasts, a Syrian military source told Sputnik that Syria’s air defences were able to shoot down a significant part of Israeli guided missiles.

So there are two possibilities. Perhaps Al-Quds, misunderstood its sources or just plain made up the story, or else the Israelis intentionally launched a second series of strikes just to show they will not respect any Russian red lines

Moscow Warns US ‘Hotheads’ Against Military Intervention in Venezuela

PUTIN DEFENDS VENEZUELA: Moscow Warns US ‘Hotheads’ Against Military Intervention in Venezuela

MOSCOW, Russia – Moscow warns “several hotheads” in Washington of resorting to military force in Venezuela, said the 9th Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov.

“I view the attempts by the US to consolidate the anti-Chavez front [against Venezuela] from Latin American states with anxiety and concern, this is an alarming trend,” Ryabkov stressed.

According to the Russian diplomat, even Latin American governments with a very critical position on Caracas exclude the possibility of military intervention in Venezuelan affairs.

“Despite the harsh standoff, even the governments in Latin America, which have taken the most critical stance against Caracas, are excluding the option of military intervention into Venezuela’s affairs. An attempt to use military force would be a catastrophic development.”

“We warn ‘hotheads’ in Washington against such temptations,” Ryabkov emphasized.

The senior diplomat has branded the widening of Washington’s sanctions against Venezuela as a path towards destabilization.

“We are confident that the government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and the Venezuelan people will weather this test with integrity. This is not the first time, the country has been living with and functioning under these sanctions,” he noted. “The resilience of Venezuelans and the country’s leadership is beyond any doubt.”

“Like in many other situations with the use of unilateral US sanctions, in this particular case Washington will see for itself that they are completely useless,” Ryabkov vowed.

At the beginning of August last year, an attempted attack on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro took place during the military parade in Caracas with the use of drones loaded with explosives. Maduro left unharmed, but 7 soldiers were injured. Maduro accused the attack on the opposition and former Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos, adding that he was aware of the preparation of a conspiracy against him with US support.

According to Maduro, near the border with Venezuela, a group of 730 mercenaries are being prepared who can start military provocations at any moment with the objective of neutralizing a series of military bases in Venezuelan territory. In addition, the Colombian authorities allegedly granted an airbase in their territory to participants in the plan.

From 2018 to 2019 – a quick survey of a few trends

From 2018 to 2019 – a quick survey of a few trends

[This analysis was written for the Unz Review]

The year 2018 will go down in history as a turning point in the evolution of the geostrategic environment of our planet.  There are many reasons for that and I won’t list them all, but here are some of the ones which I personally consider the most important ones:

The Empire blinked.  Several times.

This is probably the single most important development of the year: the AngloZionist Empire issued all sorts of scary threats, and took some even scarier actual steps, but eventually it had to back down.  In fact, the Empire is in retreat on many fronts, but I will only list a few crucial ones:

  1. The DPRK: remember all the grandiose threats made by Trump and his Neocon handlers?  The Administration went as far as announcing that it would send as many as THREE(!) nuclear aircraft carrier strike groups to the waters off the DRPK while Trump threatened to “totally destroy” North Korea.  Eventually, the South Koreans decided to take matters in their own hands, they opened a direct channel of communications with the North, and all the US sabre-rattling turned into nothing more than hot air.
  2. Syria in April: that was the time when the US, France and the UK decided to attack Syria with cruise missiles to “punish” the Syrians for allegedly using chemical weapons (a theory too stupid to be even worth discussing).  Of 103 detected missiles, 71 were shot down by the Syrians.  The White House and the Pentagon, along with their trusted Ziomedia, declared the strike a great success, but then, they also did that during the invasion of Grenada (one of the worst assault operation in military history) or after the humiliating defeat of Israel by Hezbollah in 2006, so this really means very little.  The truth is that this operation was a total military failure and that it has not been followed up by anything (at least for now).
  3. The Ukraine: we spend almost all of 2018 waiting for an Ukronazi attack on the Donbass which never happened.  Now, I am quite sure that some will argue that the Nazi junta in Kiev never had any such intentions, but anybody with even a basic knowledge of what took place in the Ukraine this year knows that this is pure bull: the junta did pretty much everything to execute an attack except the very last step: to actually order it.  Putin’s open threat that any such attack would have “grave consequences for Ukraine’s statehood as such” probably played a key role in deterring the Empire.  Oh sure, the Ukronazis might well attack in January or any time after that, but the fact is that in 2018 they did not dare do so.  Yet again, the Empire (and its minions) had to back down.
  4. Syria in September: this time, it was the Israeli hypostasis of the Empire which triggered a massive crisis when the Israelis hid their strike aircraft behind a Russian Il-20 large turboprop airliner resulting in the loss of the aircraft and crew.  After giving the Israelis a chance to come clean (which, predictably, they didn’t – they are, after all, Israelis), the Russians got fed up and delivered advanced air defense, electronic warfare and battle management systems to the Syrians.  In response the Israelis (who had issued many threats about immediately destroying any S-300 delivered to the Syrians) had to basically stop their air strikes against Syria (well, not quite, they did execute two such strikes: one totally ineffective one and one in which the Zionist crazies again hid behind an aircraft, but in this case, no one but TWO civilian aircraft (more about this latest ziocrazy stunt further below).  The Empire backed down again.
  5. Syria in December: apparently fed up with all the infighting amongst his advisors, Trump eventually ordered a full US withdrawal from Syria.  Now, of course, since this is the USA, we have to wait and see what actually happens.  There is also a very complex kabuki dance being executed by Russia, Turkey, the US, Israel, Iran, the Kurds and the Syrians to stabilize the situation following a full US withdrawal.  After all the years of huffing and puffing about how “Assad The Monster must go” it is quite amusing to see how the western powers are throwing in towels one after the other.  This also begs the obvious question: if “The City On The Hill And Sole Superpower On The Planet, The Leader Of The Free World and the Indispensable Nation” can’t even deal with a weakened Syrian government and military, what can this military successfully do (besides provide Hollywood blockbusters to a gullible US public)?
  6. Various smaller defeats: too many to count, but they include the Khashoggi fiasco, the failure of the war in Yemen, the failure of the war in Afghanistan, the failure of the war in Iraq, the failure to remove Maduro from power in Venezuela, and the gradual loss of control over an increasing number of EU countries (Italy), Nikki Haley’s ridiculous antics at the UNSC, the inability to gather up the intellectual resources needed to have a real, productive, meeting with Vladimir Putin, the disastrous commercial war with China, etc.  What all these events have in common is that they are a result of the inability of the US to get anything done, truly done.  Far from being a real superpower, the USA is in a full-spectrum decline and the main thing which still gives it its superpower status are its nuclear weapons, just like Russia in the 1990s.

All the internal problems resulting from the infighting of the US elites (roughly: the Clinton gang vs Trump and his Deplorables) only make things worse.  Just the apparently never ending sequence of resignations and/or firing from the Trump Administration is a very important sign of the advanced state of collapse of the US polity.  Elites don’t fight each other when all goes well, they do so when everything goes south.  The saying “victory has many fathers but defeat is an orphan” reminds us that when a gang of thugs begins to lose control of a situation, it rapidly turns into an “every man for himself”, everybody blames everybody for the problems and nobody wants to stay anywhere near those who will go down in history as the pathetic losers who screwed everything up.

As for the US armed forces, they have been tremendously successful in killing a very large amount of people, as always, mostly civilians, but they failed to get anything actually done, at least not if one understands that the purpose of war is not just to kill people, but is the “continuation of politics by other means“.  Let’s compare and contrast what Russia and the US did in Syria.

On October 11thPutin declared the following in an interview with Vladimir Soloviev on the TV channel Russia 1: “Our objective is to stabilize the legitimate authority and create conditions for a political compromise“.  That’s it. He did not say that Russia would single-handedly change the course of the war, much less so win the war.  The (very small!) Russian task force in Syria achieved these original objectives in just a few months, something which the Axis-of-Kindness could not achieve in years (and the Russians did that with a small fraction of the military capabilities available to the US/NATO/EU/CENTCOM/Israel in the region.  In fact, the Russians even had to quickly create a resupply system which they did not have because of the purely defensive Russian military posture (Russian power projection is mostly limited under 500-1000km from the Russian border).

In comparison, the USA has been fighting a so-called GWOT (Global War on Terror) since 2001 and all it can show is that the terrorists (of various demonstrations) only got stronger, took control of more land, murdered more people, and generally seemed to show a remarkable ability to survive and even grow in spite of (or thanks to) the GWOT.  As Putin would say, what would you expect from “people who don’t know the difference between Austria and Australia“?

Personally, I would expect them to take full credit for the victory and leave.

Which is exactly what the USA has done.

At least that is what they are saying now.  This could change 180 degree again.

As for Afghanistan, the USA spent more time there than the Soviets did.  Does that no strongly suggest that the US leaders are *even more* incompetent than the “stagnation” era Soviet gerontocrats?

The failure to subdue or even contain Russia

Putin’s speech on March 1st to the Russian Federal Assembly was truly a historical moment: for the first time since the Empire decided to wage war on Russia (a war which is roughly 80% informational, 15% economic and only 5% kinetic but which can turn 95% kinetic in one hour or so!) the Russians decided to openly warn the USA that their strategy has been comprehensively defeated.  You think that this is hyperbole?  Think again.  What is US military power based on?  What are it’s main components?

  • Airpower (air supremacy)
  • Long-range standoff weapons (ballistic and air-breathing)
  • Aircraft carriers
  • Anti-missile defense (at least in theory!)
  • 800-1000 (depends on how you count) bases worldwide

The deployment of what are without any doubt the most sophisticated air-defense systems in the world supported what are also probably the most formidable electronic warfare (EW) capabilities currently in existence have now have now created what the US/NATO commanders refer to as a “Russia’s anti-access/area denial (A2/AD)” capability which, so do these US/NATO commanders say, can pop-up over the Baltic Sea, over the Eastern Mediterranean, the Ukraine, Syria and elsewhere (might show up on the La Orchila island in Venezuela in 2019).  Furthermore, in qualitative terms Russian tactical airpower is newer and at least equal, if not superior, to anything in US or NATO tactical aircraft holdings.  While the West in general, and especially the USA, have a much larger number of aircraft, they are mostly of the older generations, and various encounters between Russian and US multirole aircraft in the Syrian skies have shown that US pilots prefer to leave when Russian Su-35S show up.

The deployment (already in 2018!) of the Kinzhal hypersonic missile has basically made the entire US surface fleet useless for an attack against Russia.  Be it the aircraft carriers or even various destroyers, cruisers, amphibious assault ships, (mostly ill-fated) littoral combat ships, transport ships, etc. – they now are all sitting ducks which the Russians can blow out of the water irrespective of any air-defenses these ships, o or their escorts, might have.

Likewise, the deployment of the super-heavy thermonuclear armed intercontinental ballistic like the Sarmat and the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle have made all of the US anti-ballistic missile efforts completely useless.  Let me repeat this: ALL of the US ABM efforts, including the billions spent on research and development, have now been rendered completely useless.

[Sidebar: it is important to clarify something here: none of the new Russian weapon systems provide anymeans to protect Russian from a US nuclear (or conventional) strike.   “All” they do is to make darn sure that the US leaders are never under the illusion they have been pursuing since Reagan’s “Star Wars”, i.e. that they could somehow escape a Russian 2nd-strike (counter-strike) retaliatory capability if it decided to strike Russia.  In truth, even without the Sarmat or the Avanguard, Russia already had more than enough missiles (land, air and sea based) to  wipe-out the USA in case of a retaliatory counter-strike, but the US politicians and force planners began pursuing this pipe-dream of anti-ballistic missile defense in spite of the fact that it was rather clear that such a system could not work (a few “leakers” might be acceptable with conventional weapons, but a few “nuclear leakers” are more than enough to extract a terrible price from any attacker delusional enough to think that a 90% or even 98% effective “shield” is enough of a protection to risk attacking a nuclear superpower).  So you could say that these new Russian capabilities (including the short(er) range Iskander tactical missiles) are a type of “delusion destroyer” or a “reality reminder” who will burst the bubble of US illusions about the risks of a war against Russia.  Hopefully, they will never have any other use.]

Finally, the deployment of a new generation of advanced and very long range standoff missiles by Russia has given Russia the huge “reach” advantage of being able to strike any US target (be it a military force or a base) worldwide, including in the United States (which now is almost never mentioned in the western media).

Now take a look at the list of key components of US military power above and see that it has all been transformed into, basically, junk.

What we have here is a classical situation in which, on one side, one country’s force planners made fundamental, strategic miscalculations which directly defined what kind of military force the country would have for at least two, possibly three, decades, while, on the other side, the force planners made the correct decisions which allowed them to defeat a military force whose military budget is roughly ten times bigger.  The most severe consequence of this state of affairs for the USA is that it will now take at the very least a decade (or more!) to reformulate a new force planning strategy (modern weapons systems sometimes take decades to design, develop and deploy).  The ill-fated Zumwalt, the F-35, the Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) aircraft carrier – these are all obscene examples on how to spend billions of dollars and be left with major weapon systems disasters which only further weaken the US armed forces.

There is a simple reason why the USA became a superpower in the 20th century: not only was the US mainland protected by huge oceans, all of WWI and WWII were fought far away from the USA: all the potential competitors of the USA had their national economies completely destroyed while the USA did not even lose a single factory or research/design bureau.  Then the USA could use its immense industrial powerbase to basically provide a world-wide market with goods which only the USA could built and deliver.  And yet, in spite of such huge advantages, the US spend almost all its history beating up one defenseless country after another to ensure full submission and compliance with the demands of Uncle Shmuel (the AngloZionist variant of Uncle Sam).  So much for being “indispensable” I suppose…

Thanks to the globalists, the US industrial base is gone.  Thanks to the Neocons and their arrogance, the US is in one form of conflict or another with most of the key countries on the planet (especially if we ignore the existence of US-supported and run comprador elites).  The infinitely dumb and self-defeating submission of the US to Israel has now resulted in a situation where the USA is losing control of the oil-rich Middle-East it used to run for decades.  Finally, by choosing to try to submit both Russia and China to the will of the Empire, the Neocons have succeeded in pushing these two countries into a de-facto alliance (really a symbiotic relationship) which, far from isolating them, isolates the USA from “where it is happening” in terms of economic, social and political developments (first and foremost, the Eurasian landmass and the OBOR project).

2019 prospects for the Empire: problems, problems and even more problems

Well, 2018 was an exceptionally nasty and dangerous year, but 2019 could prove even more dangerous for the following reasons:

  • Unless the USA changes political course and gives up on the suicidal russophobia of Obama and Trump, a military confrontation between Russia and the USA is inevitable.  Russia has retreated as far as she possibly can, there is nowhere else to retreat and she therefore won’t.  There is no doubt in my mind whatsoever that if the US had actually targeted Russian units in Syria (which, apparently, Bolton wanted but Mattis, apparently, categorically rejected), the Russians would have counter-attacked not only against the US missiles, but also against their carriers (especially ships).  I have it from a trusted source that on the night of the attack, the Russian MiG-31K with the Kinzhal missile were in the air ready to strike.  Thank God (and, possibly, thank Mattis) this did not happen.  But as I said in my article “Every click brings us closer to a bang!” each time WWIII does not happen following a US strike on Syria this emboldens the Neocons to try yet once more, especially since “Assad The Monster Must Go” remains in power in Damascus while one after the one each western politician which decreed that Assad must go, goes himself.
  • It is pretty obvious that Israel has gone absolutely, terminally and, possibly, suicidally insane.  Their little stunt with the Russian Il-20 was already a disaster of immense proportions which, in a normal country, would have resulted in the immediate resignation of the entire Cabinet.  But not in Israel.  After hiding behind a Russian military turboprop, they now decided to hide from the Syrian S-300 by hiding behind two civilian aircraft!    See for yourself:
  • I don’t think that it is worth pondering here that Israel is the last openly racist state on the planet, or that the Israeli leaders are evil, immoral, insane and generally batshit crazy maniacs.  That you either understood for yourself or you are hopeless.  What is important here is not how evil the Israelis are, but how stupid and totally reckless they are.  Simply put, this is how this works: the Israelis are evil, stupid and completely delusional, but they own every single US politician which means that no matter how insane and egregious the actions of the Israelis might be, the “indispensable nation” will *always* cover them and, when needed, cover-up for them (cf.USS Liberty or, for that matter, 9/11).  Right now there is nobody in the US political class with any chance of being elected who would dare to do anything other that automatically worship anything Israeli (or Jewish, for that matter).  The real motto of the USA is not “In God we trust“, but “there is no light between the U.S. and Israel” (yet another reason why the USA is not a real superpower: it is not even really sovereign!).
  • The Empire has some major problems in Europe.  First, should the Ukronazi protégés of the USA ever find the courage (or despair) to attack the Donbass or Russia, the resulting chaos will flood the EU with even more refugees, many of whom will be most unsavory and outright dangerous characters.  Furthermore, the anti-EU feelings are becoming very strong in Italy, Hungary and, for different reasons, even Poland.  France is on the edge of a civil war (not this time around; my feeling is that the Gilets Jaunes will eventually run out of steam; but the next time around, which will happen sooner rather than later, the explosion will probably result in the overthrow of the French CRIF-run regime and a massive anti-US backlash.
  • In Latin America, the Empire has been massively successful in overthrowing a series of patriotic, independent, leaders.  But what is missing now is the ability to make these pro-US regimes successful by being economically or politically viable.  Amazingly, and in spite of both a massive subversion campaign by the USA and major political mistakes, the Maduro Administration has remained in power in Venezuela and is slowly but very resolutely trying to change course and keep Venezuela sovereign and independent from the USA.  The key problem of the USA in Latin American is that the USA has always ruled by using a local comprador elite.  The USA has been very successful in this effort.  But the USA has never succeeded in convincing the Latin American masses of people of its benevolence and this is why the word “Yankee” remains a slur in every Latin American country.
  • In Asia, China is offering every US colony an alternative civilizational model which is becoming increasingly attractive as the PRC is becoming more economically powerful and economically successful.  It turns out that the usual mix or arrogance, hubris and ignorance which allowed the Anglo countries to dominate Asia is now losing its power and that the people of Asia are looking for alternatives.  Truth be told – the USA has absolutely nothing to offer.

The bottom line is this: not only is the USA unable to impose its will on countries which are considered “US allies” (if the NorthStream ever happens – and I think that it will – then this will mark the first time that EU leaders told the US President to get lost, if not in so many words), but the USA obviously lacks any kind of project to offer to other countries.  Yes, “MAGA” is all fine and dandy, but it does not have much traction with other countries who really don’t care about MAGA…

Conclusion in the form of a Russian saying

There is a saying in Russian “better to have an horrible end (than to have to live through) a horror with no end” (лучше ужасный конец чем ужас без конца).  There is very little doubt that the decline of the AngloZionist Empire will continue in 2019.  What will not change, however, is the ability of the USA to destroy Russia in a nuclear attack.  Because, make no mistake, all that the new fancy Russian weapons provide is the capability to punish (retaliate against) the USA for an attack on Russia, but not the capability to deny (prevent) such an attack.  If the Neocons decide that a nuclear holocaust is preferable to a loss of power in the USA, then there is nothing anybody can do to prevent them from playing out their own, sordid, version of Götterdämmerung.  I have recently had to spend a few days in Boca Raton, were a lot of that new US “aristocracy” likes to spend time and I can tell you two things: life is good for them, and they sure ain’t giving up their privileged status as “leaders of the planet”.  And if somebody tries to take it away, there is no doubt in my mind that these people will react with a vicious outburst of Samson-like despair-filled rage.  So the only question remains this: will we (mankind) be able to take away the nuclear button from this class of parasites without giving them the chance to press it or not?

I don’t know.

So, will it be a horrible end or a horror with no end?

I don’t know either.

But what I know is that the Empire is cracking at all its seams and that its decline will only accelerate in 2019.

The Saker

Ukraine to declare war on Russia next?

December 22, 2018Ukraine to declare war on Russia next?

Note by The Saker: Eugenia and the other translators were wondering whether it was worth translating such a demented piece of proposed legislation, but I asked them to go ahead and do it even though I fully agree with them that the author of this text is clearly completely insane and the ideas this draft legislation are the product of sick, hateful and infinitely stupid minds.  But that is precisely the point! 

I am personally sick and tired of the western patrons and sponsors of the Euromaidan and of the very notion of a “Ukraine” constantly trying to constantly put some half-way decent make-up on what are the demented, corrupt and, yes, Nazi faces of the ruling Ukronazi junta in Kiev.  The truth is that just like in the cases of Noriega, Saddam Husein, al-Qaeda, the Takfiris in Syria and elsewhere, the West is yet again allied with, and protector of, an ugly clique of hateful and demented people.  This resolution is a very good example of the kind of ideas which this AngloZionist ruling gang of thugs have advocated for many decades (beginning with the hate-saturated propaganda of  RFE/RL, VOA, BBC, DW and the rest of them), then inside the Ukraine since even before 1991 and now from the Ukie Rada and Presidency. 

When we post this text, we are simply holding up a mirror to the collective face of the AngloZionists but, as we say in Russian, don’t blame the mirror if your face looks crooked!   This translation is important because it shows what kind of demented monsters the collective West has lovingly nurtured for decades.  It is also important because it is a direct attack on Poroshenko from the Nazi-crazies in the Rada, folks who might well one day replace him as the President of the “Independent Euro-compatible the Ukraine”.  When that happens, at least they won’t be quite able to say “we did not know”.  Yes, you did know, you have known for decades, and at the end of the day, this resolution is not the product of the demented mind of one crazy Ukie, but a pure product of the rabid russophobia of the collective West.  And for that I say: shame on you!
The Saker
——-

Translation by Eugenia

On December 21st just four days after Sergei Lavrov stated that Russia will not wage war against Ukraine, three days after Speaker A.Parubiy met US Special Representative K.Volker to discuss “recent Russian aggression” and “further support of Ukraine by United States of America,” and a day after A.Parubiy named the UK to be mightiest balancing military force in the Black Sea, Vitaly Kupriy, a member of the Ukrainian Rada, and an associate of Israeli oligarch Igor Kolomoisky, submitted a draft resolution No. 9442 titled “Draft Resolution on the appeal of the Supreme (Verkhovna) Rada of Ukraine to the President of Ukraine about declaration of war, termination of diplomatic relations and the cessation of transport connections with the Russian Federation.

The text of the proposed resolution is still absent on the official website, but the Ukrainian lawmaker graciously posted it on his official FaceBook page, accompanied by a memorandum titled: Down with usurpation!

Friday, December 21st, was Rada’s last day in section before winter recess. It will be back on January 5th, 2019.

 

Vitaly Kupriy (member of the Ukrainian Rada)

Down with usurpation!

“The hybrid” war must be stopped!

Poroshenko is an enemy of the Ukrainian state, who skillfully fools some of our people. One part of his uninterrupted lies is his stated intention to win the war with Putin.

He sends our service people to be captured or killed, but neither wants to nor has the ability to free our territory. Recently, this happened with our sailors. The existence of the so-called “hybrid” war with Russia allows Putin to mock our patriots, keep them in jail like criminals, because de-jure during the fifth year of the war we do not have an enemy. Even the international UN court in 2017 did not recognize Russia as an aggressor or even a combatant.

There is no hybrid war. Tens of thousands have died, hundreds of thousands were maimed, millions lost their dwellings. What kind of hybrid is this? It is obvious that this kind of war keeps Poroshenko in power, and he makes a lot of money on the blood spilled.

This hapless, unlawful position of Poroshenko does not allow us to ask for the international help, as everybody believes that we are fighting ourselves. Non-declaration of war under clear signs of aggression contravenes the 1907 Hague Convention, and Poroshenko and Turchinov must go to prison for a long time for that.

I want to calm the Ukrainians. The declaration of war is not a prelude to an offensive at the front. But after that happens, nobody in the world would consider that we are aggressors. On the contrary, it will be the beginning of the full-scale non-military legal operation of freeing our territory and repairing the damage caused by Kremlin. This is the way to a peaceful victory, this is the way to save the lives of the Ukrainians!!!

Our tough and lawful position as well as ratification of the Rome Statute of International Criminal Court, the established status of Russia as a hostile country and aggressor at the level of UN will force our “allies” to introduce real sanctions against Russia, up to disconnection from the international paying system SWIFT, introduction full-scale trade and economic embargo, etc. We also must introduce serious sanctions against the aggressor, impound and nationalize all Russian property in Ukraine, cut diplomatic relations, try criminals-collaborators, as well as stop any official collaboration with Russia.

Then Putin would be unable to withstand that and will back off. He does not have the will or the force for any full-scale war with Ukraine. Otherwise, his regime will fold like the house of cards. Economic problems, failures in social sphere and pensions, a union of unhappy elites and the people would be the death of the ruler in the Kremlin. Putin understands that the “best” President for him is Poroshenko. Poroshenko would never dare to do what I indicated in my draft of Rada resolution. Poroshenko is a collaborator who helps Putin to remain on his throne.

I would also like to note that legal consequences of the declaration of war and of the identification of the enemy, as well as cancellation of the martial law, will not include taking away any constitutional human rights. The elections won’t be cancelled, people will keep living their normal lives. In contrast, the introduction of martial law without declaration of war and identification of the enemy is a game, the only purpose of which is that the person chosen by the Kremlin usurps power!

 

Draft of the resolution

Introduced by Kupriy V.M.

Resolution of the Supreme Rada of Ukraine

Appeal of Supreme Rada of Ukraine to the President of Ukraine about declaration of war, termination of diplomatic relations and the cessation of transport connections with the Russian Federation

Because of the annexation of a part of the Ukrainian territory, occupation by foreign troops of additional territory, as well as military aggression of the Russian Federation, taking into account the failure of the Ukrainian President to fulfill his constitutional duties to defend our country, our Fatherland, the independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine, Supreme Rada of Ukraine, expressing the sovereign will of the people and taking responsibility for the situation in Ukraine, as a sole national representative organ in Ukraine, declares:

  1. Suggest the following to the President of Ukraine:
  • introduce to the Supreme Rada a suggestion to declare war at the Russian Federation;
  • terminate diplomatic relations with the Russian Federation;
  • create the General Staff structure under the Commander-in-Chief to organize a proper response to the country-aggressor;
  • inform the United Nations and countries who signed the appropriate international conventions about the state of war with Russian Federation and demand implementation of the international humanitarian law to free the Ukrainian prisoners of war and ban passing of military ships via Bosporus and Dardanelle straits;
  • request that Ukrainian Council of National Security and Defense and Supreme Rada introduce martial law in occupied territories and along the war lines to 50 kilometers;
  • disallow restrictions on the constitutional rights of people on the Ukrainian territory where the martial law is not declared, including the right to elect and be elected to the national and local governments;
  • request that the Ukrainian Council of National Security and Defense introduce personal sanctions against persons and legal entities from country-aggressor, including: block their assets –temporarily limit their rights to use and dispose of their property; limit trade operations; completely terminate transit of resources, flights, and transportation via Ukrainian territory;
  • initiate criminal prosecution of collaborators of the country-aggressor, including Victor Medvedchuk and other agents of the Russian intelligence, who constitute a threat to the Ukrainian national security;
  • initiate measures to ensure energy independence from the country-aggressor, the Russian Federation, in particular, produce nuclear fuel in Ukraine, separate from Russian electric grid, etc.

 

  1. This declaration takes effect upon its adoption.

 

The speaker of the Supreme Rada                                 A. Parubiy

 

 

Explanatory Note

 

To the draft of the Supreme Rada resolution “Appeal of the Supreme Rada of Ukraine to the President of Ukraine about declaration of war, termination of diplomatic relations and transport connections with Russian Federation”

  1. Explanation why this act is necessary

The military aggression of Russian Federation against Ukraine lasts more than four years. In 2014, a part of the Ukrainian territory was annexed, and another part was occupied by foreign troops; armed aggression continues, and as a result, people are killed virtually daily.

Only on November 26, 2018, the Supreme Rada of Ukraine approved the decree of the President of Ukraine #393 “On the introduction of martial law in Ukraine”, which introduced the martial law in the following regions: Vinnitsa, Lugansk, Nikolaev, Odessa, Sumy, Kharkov, Chernygov, Donetsk, Zaporozzie, Herson, and in the Ukrainian territorial waters of Azov-Kerch area.

In spite of that, the President of Ukraine does not fulfill his constitutional duties regarding the national defense.

The article four of the Ukrainian law “On the defense of Ukraine” states that in case of armed aggression against Ukraine or a threat of aggression the President of Ukraine makes decisions about total or partial mobilization and introduction of martial law in Ukraine or its regions, use of the Ukrainian armed forces, other military units created in accordance with Ukrainian laws, submits these decisions to the Ukrainian Supreme Rada, and introduces to the Supreme Rada a suggestion regarding the declaration of war.

The President still has not introduced to the Supreme Rada a request to declare war at the Russian Federation, which, according to Article 106 of Ukrainian Constitution, is his exclusive competence.

Because of this, the Ukrainian Supreme Rada, as the only national representative organ in Ukraine, must propose to the President of Ukraine the declaration of war and other actions for the effective defense of the country, with a view of further defense of the independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine.

  1. Goals of enacting this resolution

The goal of the suggested draft of the resolution is to exert political pressure on the President of Ukraine to make him fulfill his constitutional duties regarding the defense of the country against a foreign occupier – the Russian Federation.

  1. Key points of this resolution

Suggest to the President of Ukraine:

  • introduce to the Supreme Rada suggestion to declare war with the Russian Federation;
  • terminate the diplomatic relations with the Russian Federation;
  • create the General Staff under the Commander-in-Chief to organize a proper response to the country-aggressor;
  • inform the United Nations and the countries that signed appropriate international conventions about the state of war with the Russian Federation and demand implementation of the international humanitarian law to free Ukrainian prisoners of war and ban the passing of military ships via Bosporus and Dardanelle straits;
  • request that the Ukrainian Council of National Security and Defense and the Supreme Rada introduce martial law in occupied territories and along the war lines to 50 kilometers;
  • disallow limitations of constitutional rights of people on the Ukrainian territory where the martial law is not declared, including the right to elect and be elected to national and local governments;
  • request that the Ukrainian Council of the National Security and Defense introduce personal sanctions against persons and legal entities from the country-aggressor, including: block their assets – temporarily limit their rights to use and dispose of their property; limit trade operations; completely terminate transit of resources, flights, and transportation via Ukrainian territory;
  • initiate criminal prosecution of collaborators of the country-aggressor, including Victor Medvedchuk and other agents of the Russian intelligence, who constitute a threat to the Ukrainian national security;
  • initiate measures to ensure energy independence from the country-aggressor, the Russian Federation, specifically, produce nuclear fuel in Ukraine, separate from Russian electric grid, etc.
  1. Legal basis in this sphere of the law

Key laws that regulate these issues are: the Ukrainian Constitution; the Ukrainian law “On the defense of Ukraine”, the Ukrainian law “About the legal rules of the martial law”, the Ukrainian law “On sanctions”. The adoption of this resolution does not require changes in these laws.

  1. Financial and economic basis

The realization of this resolution would not require additional spending of the Ukrainian State Budget.

  1. Prevention of corruption

This draft of the resolution does not contain rules or procedures that create risks of corruption.

  1. Prognosis of social, economic, legal and other consequences of the adoption of this resolution

The adoption of this resolution will exert influence on the President of Ukraine with a view of making him declare the state or war with the Russian Federation and take other actions necessary to defend the country, which would make him properly fulfill his constitutional duties to defend the Fatherland, the independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine.

 

Member of Rada                                        V.M.Kupriy

A much needed “Likbez” about Russian Tu-160 bombers in Venezuela

A much needed “Likbez” about Russian Tu-160 bombers in Venezuela

[This analysis was written for the Unz Review]

Rusty museum antiques or the Star War’s Death Star?

Remember what happened when the Admiral Kuznetsov carrier sailed around Europe to reach the eastern Mediterranean?  NATO leaders were making fun of the black smoke coming out of the ship’s engine while at the same time shadowing the Kuznetsov as if it was the Death Star from the Star Wars series and as if it’s final goal was to obliterate the British Isles.  Frankly, this is nothing new.  Even during the Cold War, western propagandists liked to dismiss all Soviet weapons systems as junk while at the same time declaring that they were the terrifying weapons of a Mordor-like Evil Empire set to destroy the Entire Free World.  This time around, we are seeing exactly the same pattern yet again:

NATO is busy intercepting “museum pieces”

The US Ambassador to Colombia Kevin Whitaker declared that these aircraft were so old that they were “museum pieces.”

Mike Pompeo (who makes even Nikki Haley look almost smart and almost sweet!) angrily declared that this was a case of “two corrupt governments squandering public funds, and squelching liberty and freedom while their people suffer.”

Diego Moya-Ocampos, a senior analyst for IHS Markit Ltd, a London-based global information provider, declared that

This is Russia trying to force the U.S. to say, ‘listen if you withdraw from this and if you make these moves in Europe, we will make these moves as well.’” He also added that a “Russian base would represent a much larger investment in Venezuela than Russia has signaled it’s willing to make, as well as a larger provocation to the United States.”

There is so much military illiteracy in the AngloZionist Empire that, once again, I decided to engage in some much needed LikBez to try to set the record straight.

First, the basics: the Tu-160 is, indeed, a supersonic heavy strategic bomber, meaning that they have the speed and range to strike targets at long distance (how far depends on the load, the availability of in-flight refueling and flight profile; usually a max range of 12’000km is quoted). While the Tu-160 can carry regular (“dumb”) bombs, it’s primary weapons are cruise missiles, specifically six Raduga Kh-55SM/101/102/555 missiles or twelve AS-16 Kickbackmissiles. The former has a range of about 4,500–5,000–5,500 km (2,800–3,100–3,400 mi; some sources even claim as much as 10,000 km (6,200 mi) range with a flight endurance of 10 hours. The AS-16 is a short range weapon with a range of 300 km (160 nmi) which can fly at 40,000 m (130,000 ft) and then dive at a speed of Mach 5. Both of these missiles have a low radar cross-section, advanced guidance (including terminal), onboard electronic warfare kit and maneuvering capabilities. Finally, these missiles exist in various variants including conventional, nuclear and anti-ship. The first conclusion, these figures suggest, is that Russia does not need to send her bombers anywhere near the USA to deliver a powerful conventional or nuclear strike: with a range anywhere between 4500km and 10000km the main missile armament of the Tu-160 does not require this bomber to be anywhere near the target at the moment of launch of the missile.  Instead of attacking from Venezuela, the Tu-160 can fire its missiles from over the polar cap and still strike the continental USA.

This is true for bombers, but this is even more true of ship or submarine-based ballistic and cruise missiles.

Second, this is hardly the first time the Russian military paid a visit to Venezuela: Russian Aerospace bombers visited the country in 2013, and Russian Navy ships did so in 2008. Nothing happened then, and nothing happened now.

I will admit, this is a scary looking “strateg” (as these supersonic heavy strategic bombers are called by their crews)

So what’s all the hysterics all about?

I think that this is all about internal US politics and, shall we say, “information management”: every time the Russian military visits Venezuela, the US public comes dangerously close to finding out three things the Neocons and their Deep State desperately want to keep a secret from the US public:

  1. The US mainland is completely undefended for the very simple reason that (almost!) nobody is threatening it.
  2. Russia has the means to deliver conventional and nuclear strikes anywhere in the USA.
  3. We have never been as close to a full-scale conventional and nuclear war as we are today.

Let’s look at each one of these statements one by one.

The USA is totally undefended because nobody threatens it.

True, Russia and (to a lesser degree) China, can strike the USA.  But since they could only do that at the cost of a terrible counter-strike by US conventional and nuclear forces, US force planners and analysts are pretty darn confident that neither Russia nor China will initiate such a strike.  Besides, unlike the AngloZionist Empire, neither the Soviet Union nor Russia has ever planned for an attack on the US or Europe.

[Sidebar: quick reminder for the believers in “western values” – this is what the wonderful western allies had in store for the Soviet Union by the end of WWII:
Plan Totality (1945): earmarked 20 Soviet cities for obliteration in a first strike: Moscow, Gorki, Kuybyshev, Sverdlovsk, Novosibirsk, Omsk, Saratov, Kazan, Leningrad, Baku, Tashkent, Chelyabinsk, Nizhny Tagil, Magnitogorsk, Molotov, Tbilisi, Stalinsk, Grozny, Irkutsk, and Yaroslavl.
Operation Unthinkable (1945) assumed a surprise attack by up to 47 British and American divisions in the area of Dresden, in the middle of Soviet lines. This represented almost half of roughly 100 divisions (ca. 2.5 million men) available to the British, American and Canadian headquarters at that time. (…) The majority of any offensive operation would have been undertaken by American and British forces, as well as Polish forces and up to 100,000 German Wehrmacht soldiers.
Operation Dropshot (1949): included mission profiles that would have used 300 nuclear bombs and 29,000 high-explosive bombs on 200 targets in 100 cities and towns to wipe out 85% of the Soviet Union’s industrial potential at a single stroke. Between 75 and 100 of the 300 nuclear weapons were targeted to destroy Soviet combat aircraft on the ground.
But the biggest proof is, I think, the fact that none of these plans was executed, even though at the time the Anglosphere was safely hidden behind its monopoly on nuclear weapons (and were Hiroshima and Nagasaki not destroyed in part to “scare the Russians”?) See here for more details]

However, if the people of the USA realize that they don’t have any credible enemy, they might wonder why their country spends more on “defense” than the rest of the planet combined.  They might even get angrier if they came to realize that even though their country spends more on “defense” than the rest of the planet combined, they remain entirely unprotected.

Russia can wipe out the United States

During the Cold War, the vast majority of US Americans knew that the USSR could wipe out the USA in a massive nuclear strike. However, since the end of the Cold War, this fact has been somewhat pushed back away from the awareness of most US decision makers (hence their frankly suicidal rhetoric and policies).  Nowadays the big difference with the Cold War is that Russia can strike anywhere inside the United States using only conventional weapons.  Two years ago I wrote a detailed analysis on how Russia is preparing for WWIII so I won’t go into all the details here, but just mention one excellent example of this new conventional capability of the Russian military:

Take the Kalibr cruise-missile recently seen in the war in Syria. Did you know that it can be shot from a typical commercial container, like the ones you will find on trucks, trains or ships? Check out this excellent video which explains this:

Just remember that the Kalibr has a range of anywhere between 50km to 4000km and that it can carry a nuclear warhead. How hard would it be for Russia to deploy these cruise missiles right off the US coast in regular container ships? Or just keep a few containers in Cuba or Venezuela? This is a system which is so undetectable that the Russians could deploy it off the coast of Australia to hit the NSA station in Alice Springs if they wanted, a nobody would even see it coming.

And keep in mind that the Kalibr is not the only conventional/nuclear-capable missile (ballistic or cruise) which Russia can unleash against US military targets worldwide, including inside the USA. The weapons systems listed by Putin in his now famous speech are all formidable weapons in their own right (see Andrei Martynov’s excellent analysis of the military implication of these new weapon systems and my own analysis of their political implications).  Some readers might mistakenly think that Russian conventional missiles are somehow less of a threat than nuclear ones, but that would be a major mistake.  In deterrence and escalation theory it is crucial for each side to have what is called “escalation dominance” at all levels of the retaliatory spectrum.  Simply put, the so-called “Mutually Assured Destruction” (or MAD) is a very weak posture because of its very low first-strike stability (due to the “use them or lose them” force structure) and because using nuclear weapons is, under a MAD posture, equivalent to suicide.  However, having small tactical nukes and, even more so, conventional strategic weapons gives Russia a significant escalation dominance advantage which the USA cannot match.  In a 2017 article I debunked in some details the two crucial US American myths about the US military posture; the first myth is the myth of the US military superiority and the second myth is the myth about the US invulnerability, so I will just repeat here that these two myths are total bunk. The reality is that the USA is *extremely* vulnerable to Russian conventional strikes (see the article I mention for all the details): Russia has a wide choice of conventional weapons, ranging from hypersonic ballistic missiles to long-range cruise missiles. Furthermore, Russia has absolutely no need at all to send two Tu-160 bombers to Venezuela to somehow increase that capability.

A war between the USA and Russia will probably happen soon unless the USA changes its suicidal political course

One truth which is never mentioned by the AngloZionist propaganda is that Russia has retreated as far as she can and that there is a broad consensus in Russia among both the political elites and the people that Russia cannot retreat any further. God knows that even if all the “Putin caved in” propaganda is nonsense, it remains nonetheless true that the perception of the western elites is usually a strange mix of dismissing Russia while, at the same time, presenting Russia as the number one enemy on the planet.  I don’t know whether the people making these statements really believe them or not, but the resulting policy is one of a total and never-ending hostility mixed in with a quasi-religious belief in the superiority and even invulnerability of the “collective West.” And this is precisely the kind of mindset which results in stupid and bloody wars! Let me repeat this again: Russia has already done all she can to avoid a war with the USA, and there is nothing else she can do; in contrast, every single US policy towards Russia is bringing us one step closer to an almost inevitable war.

The two Tu-160’s in this context: think of it as a *gentle* wake-up call

4 Russian aircraft in Venezuela is all it took to freak out the Empire 🙂

The importance of the visit of the two Tu-160’s to Venezuela is not military, but psychological: by showing up so near the USA in such a highly visible manner, the Russians are not threatening the USA or sending some kind of message to the US military. What they are doing is trying to gently wake up the media-zombified US population by showing it that yes, the “evil Putin” has the means to “reach” as far as the USA if needed. This, while hardly any big news to the US military, seems to be coming like somewhat of a shock to a lot of folks in the USA. The reality is that a single modern Russian SSBN in port in Russia is a far more formidable threat to the USA than these two bombers, but that is not something that anybody is willing to admit to the people of the USA, so Russia sent her two bombers in a clearly visible way to force even the corporate Ziomedia to mention it.

In case of a shooting war between Russia and the USA, a couple of Russian bombers won’t make much of a difference, but if they can act as the proverbial tip of the iceberg and, maybe, finally get the US public (or, at least some of its representatives) to wake up to the real threat and demand that the USA pull-back from its current full-scale confrontation with Russia, then this would be a good result.

A much more serious threat: A Borei-class SSBN docking in its home port of Severodvinsk in northern Russia

If not, then at least the Kremlin has shown support for the Venezuelan government and the Venezuelan people by proving to the world that the famous “Monroe Doctrine” is long dead and that the putatively “sole superpower on the planet” can do absolutely nothing to prevent Russia (or any other country for that matter) from openly thumbing a collective nose at Uncle Shmuel.

Will that be enough?

I doubt it. But nothing is preventing Russia from trying other, possibly more explicit, “wake-up calls.” For example, a Russian Borei-class SSBN could fire a few of its SLBMs in a ripple-launch and have them land somewhere close enough to the USA to force the US media to pay attention (usually the Russians use the Kura missile test range in the Russian Far East, but these launches are entirely ignored in the West). So why not strike some target in, say, Venezuela? Of course, before any such launch, Russia would fully inform all the countries affected, especially, the USA and use either a dummy or a conventional warhead. And, of course, these missiles would be fired from the submarine’s dock, without even leaving port, not necessarily the main dock, but one situated further out on the Kola Peninsula would be an option. Heck, the Russians could even invite the foreign press corps, and the military attaches accredited in Russia and transmit the full thing on TV. This kind of demonstration runs very much against the Russian military culture and its maniacal obsession with secrecy (such a launch would not be without risks), but surely it is worth taking such a risk if that can bring the AngloZionist leaders and the population they rule over to their senses. Okay, maybe my idea is far-fetched, but you get the idea. Russia needs to not only talk but actually *show* that her weapons can reach well-inside the USA (and anywhere along the extremely fragile US coastline) and then wait and see whether the Americans want to engage in serious, meaningful, talks finally (as opposed to the ridiculous short chats Trump’s handlers allow him to have with Putin when they meet at some kind of summit; apparently “tweeting” is an accurate representation on how Trump’s brain works…).

Conclusion: All wars eventually end. The critical question is “how?”

Russia and the Empire have been at war since at least 2014. This has been an 80% informational war, 15% economic war and only 5% (or less) a kinetic one. But the Empire is running out of stupid accusations and hollow threats, its economic warfare has been a dismal failure, and all that’s left is to “go kinetic” which would be a disaster for all parties.  Bottom line:

The US dream of subduing Russia is long dead.

The US dream of threatening Russia is long dead.

The US dream of remaining the sole superpower (aka “World Hegemon”) is long dead.

What can the US do in this situation?

To trigger a kinetic war would be suicidal.  Bullying Russia with threats does not work.  Pretending like reality is not happening is the current US strategy, but it is clearly unsustainable (and every Tu-160 visit to Venezuela further undermines it).

I don’t see any other solution than to put an end to this war and (finally!) negotiate a global peace plan with Russia.

If not, expect many more Russian military hardware getting closer to the US borders.

The Saker

%d bloggers like this: