مَن يحرص على تجنيب لبنان الحرب: السيد حسن نصرالله أم منتقدوه؟

يوليو 15, 2019

ناصر قنديل

– ظاهرياً يتلبّس منتقدو خطاب السيد حسن نصرالله ثوب الحرص على تجنيب لبنان تداعيات أي تطور دراماتيكي للمواجهة الأميركية الإيرانية، ويعتبرون تهديداته بالدخول على خطها تلميحاً وتصريحاً تعريضاً للبنان للخطر، وتخديماً لمصالح إيرانية على حساب لبنان وأمنه واستقراره. فيقولون، إن اتصالاتهم بالأميركيين ومن خلالها ما يردهم عن نتائج الاتصالات الأميركية بالإسرائيليين، فإن واشنطن وتل أبيب مستعدتان لتحييد لبنان عن أي مواجهة مع إيران إذا استجاب حزب الله لهذه الدعوة بالتحييد، وإن كلام السيد نصرالله وموقفه يسقطان هذه الفرضية ويضعان لبنان في دائرة الاستهداف، ويضيف هؤلاء أنهم نجحوا عبر الاتصال بواشنطن لضمان استعداد أميركي لفتح قناة اتصال مع حزب الله، رغم وجود العقوبات، لكن حزب الله لم يكتفِ بالرفض بل استعمل ذلك للتصعيد بوجه واشنطن.

– ظاهرياً، يبدو هذا الكلام منطقياً، لكن هناك ما هو أهم للكشف عن صدق وطبيعة النيات الأميركية العميقة من مساعي تحييد حزب الله، تكشفها مساعي الوساطة لترسيم حدود لبنان براً وبحراً التي قادها معاون وزير الخارجية الأميركية السابق ديفيد ساترفيلد، الذي تولى حديثاً مهام سفارة بلاده في تركيا، لتقول شيئاً لا علاقة له بما يقوله اللبنانيون الذين يتحدثون عن الحرص على تحييد لبنان من أي مواجهة أميركية إيرانية، ففشل مساعي ساترفيلد بعدما استهلكت وقتاً طويلاً أظهر أن المقصود منها كان تحييد حزب الله عن أي مواجهة إيرانية أميركية، دون أن يطلب من الحزب ذلك، بل بمحاصرته بمناخ لبناني متحفز للحصول على الحقوق اللبنانية من الثروات النفطية، وجعل المستوى الأول في لبنان ينظر بإيجابية للمساعي الأميركية، بحيث لن يتسامح مع أي موقف تصعيدي لحزب الله إذا ما تدهورت الأوضاع على جبهة طهران واشنطن بما يهدّد بالإطاحة بهذه الفرصة اللبنانية الذهبية، لكن التراجع الأميركي المفاجئ بلا مقدّمات عن جهود الوساطة الشكلية، كشف المستور بعدما تيقنت واشنطن من شراكة حزب الله بقرار واعٍ وواضح في أي مواجهة بينها وبين إيران بحسابات تعرف أنها لن تستطيع تغييرها.

– لدى حزب الله مقاربة مخالفة كلياً لما سبق، وهو يعتبر أن كلام السيد حسن نصرالله ترجمة لهذه المقاربة بكل حساباتها وتفاصيلها. فخطة تحييد حزب الله، هي خطة الحرب، وليست خطة الخروج منها وفقاً لرؤية الحزب، والفشل بتحييد حزب الله يعني سقوط خيار الحرب، لأن واشنطن لن تشنّ حرباً على إيران تعرّض أمن «إسرائيل» للاهتزاز، لكنها إذا نجحت بالفوز في الحرب على إيران، بعد النجاح في تحييد حزب الله، وبالتالي ضمان أمن «إسرائيل» أثناء الحرب على إيران، فلن تتردد بالارتداد نحو حزب الله لتدفيعه ثمن انتصاراته على «إسرائيل» وتغيير معادلات الردع التي بناها بوجه القوة الإسرائيلية، بعدما تكون إيران قد هُزمت وتمّ تغيير المناخ المعنوي والنفسي والمادي لظروف خوض الحرب على حزب الله، فيصير تحييد حزب الله وعبره لبنان مجرد تكتيك حربي مؤقت لجدول أعمال الحرب لا يقع في حبائله ولا يصدّقه إلا الأغبياء، الذين يربأ حزب الله بنفسه وباللبنانيين أن يُحسَبوا من ضمنهم.

– في حسابات حزب الله، معادلة واضحة لقوانين الحرب والسلم في المنطقة عنوانها، أن أمن «إسرائيل» هو الذي يدفع أميركا لخوض الحروب وهو الذي يجعلها تعيد النظر بخيارات الحروب، وأنه كما في الحرب على سورية، في الحرب على إيران، سؤال الأميركيين الأول، هو هل يرد احتمال أن يقوم حزب الله بتعريض أمن «إسرائيل» للخطر، فإن كان الجواب إيجابياً عدلت واشنطن عن الحرب وإن كان العكس مضت بها وإليها، وفي حسابات حزب الله أن واشنطن التي شكّل التحريض الإسرائيلي أحد الأسباب في حملتها العدائية لإيران نظراً لما للتأثير الإسرائيلي على معادلات القوى الناخبة في واشنطن، ستتأثر بما تتلقاه من الرأي العام الإسرائيلي حول خيار الحرب على إيران، وبالتالي فإن تهديد الأمن الإسرائيلي بأكلاف عائدات الحرب وجعل ذلك قضية الرأي العام الأولى في كيان الاحتلال يتكفّل بجعل التحريض الإسرائيلي لواشنطن معكوساً، فبدلاً من معادلة «اضربوا إيران كمصدر خطر على أمن إسرائيل كي نقف معكم»، يصير «لا تغامروا بأمننا في حرب مع إيران سندفع نحن ثمنها إن كنتم تريدون أن نقف معكم».

– معادلة حزب الله أنه لن يكون محيداً ومعه لبنان إذا قررت واشنطن الحرب على إيران، إلا مؤقتاً ضمن خطة تكتيكية للفوز بالحرب بكل مراحلها، ومنها مرحلة القضاء على حزب الله بعد الفوز بالحرب على إيران، وأن طريق منع الحرب على لبنان يبدأ من منع الحرب على إيران، وطريق ذلك واضح، جعل أمن «إسرائيل» في كفة موازية للحرب على إيران، وهو ما يضمنه التهديد بدخول حزب الله على خط الحرب، الذي يضمن على الأقل وبكل تأكيد تحفيز الرأي العام الإسرائيلي لرفض المغامرة بالحرب، فعدم الحياد من الحرب هو طريق تحييد لبنان من الخطر.

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What Happened Behind the Scenes of the Interview With Sayyed Nasrallah? ماذا دار في كواليس اللقاء مع نصرالله؟

By Imad Marmal – Al-Joumhouriya Newspaper

The televised interview with Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah carried a lot of connotations due to the positions and sensitive information that it revealed. But not everything appeared on air. There are things that unfolded behind the scenes. The full picture would be incomplete without these details.

At around 7:00 pm Friday evening, the Al-Manar crew began its journey to the location where the interview with Sayyed [Hassan Nasrallah] was to be conducted. The security measures adopted for this particular interview were the same as those on other occasions. Black curtains covered the windows of the cars used, making it impossible to know the route the vehicles took and their final destination.

Remarkably, at each stop, the security detail of the party [Hezbollah] was very polite with us and apologized for any inconvenience those precautionary measures caused. Perhaps the enthusiasm of conducting the long-awaited interview with Sayyed at a time of great complexity and vital issues contributed to alleviating the stress caused by those necessary security measures. In addition, the security escorts were courteous, making it easier and adding a level of smoothness to the whole process. Not long after departure, we arrived at the location chosen for the interview. It was a large hall. A part of it was allocated for the studio where the episode would be broadcast. On the other side, there was a reception hall lined with sofas and a table in the middle that was filled with teacups, plates of sweets, dates, walnuts and raisins.

We were immediately received by Sayyed’s aides and warmly welcomed. Meanwhile, the crew was finalizing details concerning the studio, which was “engineered” in a way that suits the status of the interviewee and the memories of the July war. The walls were decorated with Quranic verses and pictures that captured the experiences of the war and its different stages.

At about 8:30, Nasrallah arrived with a smile that showed an early indication of his satisfaction. After an exchange of handshakes and hugs, Sayyed entered the studio, examining it and expressing his opinion regarding some of its features. Before zero hour, he sat on the seat allotted for him to test it. He noticed that it was not comfortable enough and suggested replacing it with a more suitable one.

Minutes before the interview was about to start, Sayyed addressed us.

“Tonight I will surprise the “Israelis” with a plan that will show them that they are exposed to the rockets of the resistance,” he said.

At that moment, we were confident that the interview would be exceptional. The leader of the crew was quick to ask the cameraman to zoom into the map as Nasrallah began to explain its content.

We asked Nasrallah about his health. He assured us that he is fine. We told him that he appeared to be keen in trying to reduce his weight. He smiled and replied that there was a “breach” during the month of Ramadan when his weight increased a little more than the limit approved.

It’s nine o’clock. The interview is now live on air. It starts with remembering the July anniversary and the equations it set. Nasrallah did not wait long to send messages to the “Israeli” entity. During the first break, one of Sayyed’s aides walked in and presented him with initial reactions to his positions, especially among the “Israelis”. He pointed out that “some circles within “Israel” called his speech the ‘map speech’.” Nasrallah seemed delighted, hinting that the first ‘salvo’ of his messages hit its target.

As the discussion resumed, Nasrallah returns to addressing the challenges facing the region and Lebanon, as he continues to draw the strategic equations.

During the second break, Sayyed catches his breath as he sips on a glass of carrot juice. As the interview resumes, he picks up where he left off. Three and a half hours later, the curtains falls on Nasrallah’s longest interview. The people around him begin to give their impressions about the interview while signs of satisfaction and fulfillment appeared on his face despite the lengthy exchange. After chatting about the content of the episode and its potential effects, Sayyed allows the room to take personal photos with him. In the meantime, one of the attendees brought up the question of the official exams and their results. Nasrallah did not miss the opportunity to make a funny remark.

“If my son had achieved an excellent result, some would have linked it to Hezbollah’s strength and its weapons,” he said. “I am satisfied with him just passing. This is better.”

Sayyed bids us farewell and then departs smoothly. As for us, we return the same way we came using the same procedures and measures.

ماذا دار في كواليس اللقاء مع نصرالله؟

حملت المقابلة التلفزيونية مع الامين العام لـ»حزب الله» السيد حسن نصرالله كثيراً من الدلالات، بفعل المواقف والمعلومات الحسّاسة التي انطوت عليها. لكن ما ظهر على الهواء ليس كل شيء، إذ انّ الكواليس تخفي في جعبتها تفاصيل، لا يكتمل المشهد من دونها.

نحو السابعة مساء الجمعة الماضي، إنطلقت الرحلة نحو اللقاء التلفزيوني مع «السيد» عبر قناة «المنار». الإجراءات الأمنية هي نفسها في مثل هذه المناسبات، لجهة تبديل السيارات أكثر من مرة، وفي أكثر من مكان. الستائر السوداء تغطي نوافذ السيارات المستخدمة، بحيث يستحيل عليك معرفة معالم المناطق التي يتمّ عبورها أو تحديد موقع المحطة الأخيرة التي ستنتهي فيها «الجولة التمويهية».

واللافت، أنّه عند كل محطة نزول وصعود، كان الاشخاص المكلفون من «الحزب» بمرافقتنا يتصرّفون بتهذيب فائق ويعتذرون عن اي إزعاج قد تتسبّب به التدابير الإحترازية والإلزامية. ولعلّ الحماسة لإجراء الحوار المُنتظر مع «السيد» في توقيت مفصلي ومزدحم بالملفات الحيوية، ساهمت في التخفيف من وطأة الإجراءات الضرروية. كذلك، فإنّ دماثة أخلاق المرافقين سهّلت الأمر، وأضفت نوعاً من السلاسة على مسار التنقّل. بعد مضي مدة ليست طويلة كثيراً على الانطلاق، وصلنا الى مكان إجراء المقابلة، وهو كناية عن قاعة واسعة خُصّص جزء منها للاستوديو الذي ستُبث منه الحلقة، بينما وُضع صالون للاستقبال في جانب آخر، حيث اصطفت بعض الكنبات، تتوسطها طاولة توزعت عليها أكواب الشاي وصحون ضمّت الحلوى والتمر والجوز والزبيب.

على الفور، استقبلنا مساعدو «السيد» بكثير من الترحاب والحرارة، فيما كان فريق العمل يضع اللمسات الاخيرة على تفاصيل الاستوديو الذي تمّت «هندسته» بطريقة تتناسب وخصوصية الشخصية وذكرى حرب تموز، خصوصاً لناحية تزيين الجدران بالآيات القرآنية والصور المستقاة من تجربة الحرب ومراحلها.

عند الثامنة والنصف تقريباً، وصل نصرالله ترافقه الابتسامة التي أظهرت مؤشراً مبكراً الى ارتياحه. بعد المصافحة والعناق، دخل «السيد» الى الاستوديو، مستطلعاً جزئياته ومبدياً رأيه في بعضها. جلس على المقعد المخصّص له لاختباره، قبل أن تدقّ ساعة الصفر، فلاحظ أنّه غير مريح كفاية، مقترحاً استبداله بآخر أكثر ملاءمة، وهكذا كان.

دقائق قبل انطلاق الحوار، خاطبنا «السيد» قائلاً: «الليلة سأفاجئ الاسرائيليين بخارطة تُبيّن انكشافهم أمام صواريخ المقاومة». في تلك اللحظة، تأكّد لنا أنّ المقابلة ستكون استثنائية، فيما سارع مسؤول فريق العمل الى الطلب من المصور بأن تغوص الكاميرا في عمق الخارطة وتأخذها «كلوز»، حين يباشر نصرالله في عرضها وشرح محتواها.

نسأل نصرالله عن صحته، فيُطمئن الى انّها جيدة. نقول له إنّه كان حريصاً على السعي الى خفض وزنه، فيجيب مبتسماً أنّ «خرقاً» حصل خلال شهر رمضان حين زاد وزني قليلاً عن الحد المرسوم.

انها التاسعة. الحوار ينطلق مباشرة على الهواء من بوابة استعادة ذكرى حرب تموز والمعادلات التي أرستها، ونصرالله لا يتأخّر في توجيه الرسائل المدوّية الى الكيان الاسرائيلي. خلال الفاصل الاول، يدخل أحد مساعدي «السيد» ويعرض له ردود الفعل الأولية على مواقفه، ولاسيما في الداخل الاسرائيلي، مشيراً الى «أنّ بعض أوساط العدو أطلقت على كلامه تسمية خطاب الخارطة». تنفرج اسارير نصرالله، موحياً بأنّ «الصلية» الاولى من الرسائل أصابت هدفها.

مع استئناف النقاش، يعود نصرالله الى محاكاة التحدّيات التي تواجه المنطقة ولبنان، مستكملاً رسم المعادلات الاستراتيجية.

وأثناء استراحة الفاصل الثاني، يلتقط «السيد» أنفاسه مع كوب من عصير الجزر، قبل ان تدور محرّكات المقابلة مجدداً، ويستكمل ما كان قد بدأه. عقب ثلاث ساعات ونصف الساعة تقريباً، يُسدل الستار على أطول مقابلة أجراها نصرالله. يبادر المحيطون به الى إعطاء انطباعاتهم حولها، في وقت بدت علامات الارتياح والرضا على وجهه، على الرغم من الساعات الطويلة التي استغرقها الحوار. وبعد دردشة حول مضمون الحلقة ومفاعيلها المحتملة، يفسح «السيد» المجال لالتقاط الصور الشخصية معه. في هذه الأثناء، أعاد أحد الحاضرين طرح مسألة الامتحانات الرسمية ونتائجها، فلا يفوّت نصرالله الفرصة هنا كي يمرّر تعليقاً ظريفاً، بقوله وهو يضحك: «لو حقّق ابني نتيجة متفوقة لكان البعض سيربط ذلك بقوة «حزب الله وسلاحه». كان يكفي أن ينجح. هذا أفضل.»

يودّعنا «السيد» ثم يغادر بانسيابية، قبل أن نسلك نحن طريق الإياب، وفق الآلية نفسها التي اعتُمدت في الذهاب، وقد سبقتنا الأصداء الى الداخل والخارج.

Recorded Moments of War, Suffering, Resistance and Victroy

The story of Hezbollah anti-aircraft missile

Source

July 13, 2019

TEHRAN –Secretary-General of Hezbollah Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah revealed two strategic surprises for the military and intelligence services of the West, especially the Zionists in the anniversary of 33-day Israeli war.

July 12 marked the 13th anniversary of the beginning of the 33-day Israeli regime’s war on Lebanon that resistance group, Hezbollah, managed to defeat the Zionist enemy by preventing it from achieving any of its targets. Secretary-General of Hezbollah Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah delivered a speech on the latest developments in Lebanon and the region. There are notable points in his speech which are extremely impressive in terms of achieving a military transformation in Hezbollah as follow:

-The resistance today is more powerful than before. Capabilities of Radwan Force and Al-Abbas Brigades will be shown more in future wars.

-It is not comparable to 13 years ago in the field of advanced weapons as well as missiles with pinpoint accuracy in both quality and quantity.

-Increasing intelligence superiority not only on the land but also in sea and air fields over the regime.

-The most strategic area of Israel; the ‘Israeli’ coast is under the resistance’s fire, including the 70-km long ‘Israeli’ coast starting from Netanya and ending by Ashdod which includes the most strategic Israeli sites (Ben Gurion airport, arms depots, petrochemical plants, Tel Aviv and Ashdod ports). Any possible war will result in vast destruction of occupied lands which are considered as heart of the regime.

-The ability to seize and recapture areas of occupied Palestine, including the important area of  Galilee.

-Possibility of having an anti-aircraft missile is the most important issues of Hezbollah which is the strategic surprise for the military and intelligence services of the Zionists.

The main mission of the Zionist intelligence and military services during the Syrian war was to prevent transfer of missiles or, more importantly, advanced missile technology to Hezbollah. The Zionist has targeted any places or caravan which were likely to transfer missiles to Hezbollah during these years. Therefore, the first question for world’s intelligence and military services is now how advanced anti-aircraft missiles have been transmitted to Hezbollah?!

In recent years, Israel has been struggling to compensate for its military defeats by air strikes of its advanced aircrafts. In this regards, Nasrallah believes that the air force will not determine the war’s conclusion. In other words, Hezbollah has now been able to probably undermine the latest strategic military superiority of the Zionist regime.

But perhaps one of the most sophisticated messages from Nasrallah’s speeches is the response to Netanyahu’s recent threat of using advanced military aircraft such as the F35 to attack some of Iran’s nuclear facilities. Over the past years, the Zionist regime has repeatedly emphasized that it is able to target Iran’s nuclear facilities by using its own aircraft without U.S. support, like attacking some of the nuclear facilities of Syria in the past. It means that Nasrallah has transmitted this strategic message to the threat of Netanyahu’s air strike to Iran that Hezbollah would down the Israel’s aircraft if necessary. Israel’s aircraft cannot target any parts of Iran as Iran’s air force has downed the U.S. advanced drone last weeks.

Netanyahu Dreaming of ‘Crushing’ Hezbollah

Israeli Prime Minister Banjamin Netanyahu

Israeli Prime Minister Banjamin Netanyahu

Nearly two days after Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah vowed that the Zionist entity will vanish in the coming war with the Lebanese resistance, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that the Israeli regime will inflict a “crushing” military blow on Hezbollah and Lebanon if Hezbollah “dares” to strike the occupied territories

Netanyahu called Sayyed Nasrallah’s comments “boastful words,” and said that if Hezbollah “dared to do something foolish and attack Israel, we would impose a crushing military blow on it and on Lebanon.”

Holding a map that showed potential Israeli targets that could be hit in any future confrontation, Sayyed Nasrallah voiced confidence that the resistance will emerge victorious in any future confrontation.

In an interview on AL-Manar marking the 13 anniversary of the Divine Victory in July War in 2006, Sayyed Nasrallah said he had big hope that he will pray in Al-Aqsa holy Mosque.

In his remarks on Sunday, Netanyahu said he would not echo Sayyed Nasrallah who vowed surprises by ground, sea and air.

“Unlike Nasrallah, who bragged of game-changing offensive weapons” and surprises by ground, sea and air, Netanyahu said, adding: “I do not intend to elaborate on our plans.”

“Suffice it to say that for years Nasrallah dug terror tunnels, which we destroyed within days.”

Netanyahu was referring to border tunnels which the Zionist entity claimed to destroy January.

Netanyahu has repeatedly boasted that the occupation military had destroyed alleged Hezbollah tunnels at the border between Lebanon and the occupied territories, claiming that such move represents military achievement.

However, Sayyed Nasrallah had dismissed Netanyahu claims, making fun of the occupation military over being late to discover such tunnels since they have been dug for several years ago.

At time Sayyed Nasrallah considered the delay in discovering border tunnels as pure intelligence failure.

During his Friday interview, Sayyed Nasrallah said that the Israeli commanders failed to rebuild trust in their home front’s capabilities, noting that remarks made by Israeli officials aim at making illusive victory to divert attention from their military failure.

Source: Al-Manar English Website

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«Israeli» Army: A Hezbollah Fighter Is Equal to A Tank جيش العدو: مقاتل حزب الله يساوي دبابة

By Ali Haidar – Al-Akhbar Newspaper

13 years after the 2006 war, which sought to crush Hezbollah and establish a new Middle East, the Chief of Staff of the “Israeli” army Aviv Kochavi held a session for the general staff on January 16 of this year. During the session, he displayed graphics about the “serious transformation process” Hezbollah has undergone [along with Hamas in the Gaza Strip] from being a militia to a “terrorist army” [not in an organizational sense but at the level of capabilities].

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The chief of staff stressed that the “qualitative gap” between this “army” and the “Israeli” army is shrinking, and that Hezbollah [along with the Palestinian resistance factions] continues to develop and exploit its relative superiority in camouflaging and [hiding] underground as well as building its offensive force. It is also improving the quantity of its missiles and their precision while employing relatively new means of combat such as drones.

The content of this report summarizes the nature of the outcomes of the 2006 war and reveals the scale of the transformation to the equations of conflict. Most notable among them is that it laid the groundwork for the crystallization of a regional resistance force whose features are more evident today. Kochavi’s choice of words confirms the “Israeli” security establishment’s official reading of the extent of the challenge posed by the party [Hezbollah] in the face of “Israeli” ambitions in Lebanon and the wider region.

Calling Hezbollah an army is no longer just the work of a professional journalist in Tel Aviv or an estimate of an expert [regardless of whether the party adopts it]. It was proclaimed by the current chief of staff of the army. This reveals the magnitude of the challenge Hezbollah poses in the consciousness of the military decision makers as well as the political establishment in “Israel”.

This official assessment includes two dimensions: first, it reveals the magnitude of “Israel’s” defeat in the 2006 war [because its outcome was not limited to its failure in achieving its objectives, but Hezbollah imposed its will and achieved many of its objectives related to the next phase].

Second, it reveals the “Israeli” security establishment’s recognition of the strategic threat that Hezbollah has become. All this explains the senior leadership’s hesitation to embark on a direct military confrontation with Hezbollah over the years that followed. In the words of [Eliyahu] Winograd, a few thousand fighters during the 2006 war became an army that threatened the strategic depth of the “Israeli” entity with the ability to defend and attack as well.

What aggravates the problem for “Israel” and what Kochavi acknowledges is that Hezbollah is reducing the qualitative gap between itself and the developing “Israeli” army, raising the level of danger among military commanders. As for the political decision-makers, it has weakened their confidence in their choices and readiness to pursue objectives in any perceived war by “Israel”.

This danger in the “Israeli” conscience also stems from the fact that Hezbollah was able to achieve all these victories even before it came to possess these kinds of advanced capabilities and despite the fact that “Israel” has been and still is the most developed army, capable of destruction at all levels.

A senior military officer explained the race between Hezbollah’s defensive preparedness and the “Israeli” army’s aggressive preparedness in one of his lectures a few years back. He said the good news in the development of the level of preparedness is that the “Israeli” army is able to achieve in four days what took 33 days in the 2006 war. But he added that the bad news is that Hezbollah is also able to hit in four days what it hit in 33 days.

What is brilliant in this course is that the enemy’s army realized that Hezbollah did not fall into the trap of becoming a regular army. The resistance movement, however, employed the strategic capabilities in accordance with the tactic of guerrilla warfare. Thus, producing an unprecedented formula, which allowed it to succeed in confronting an army possessing the latest military and technological capabilities. This took away the resolve of the “Israelis’” and gave Hezbollah the element of survival and ability to continue fighting.

Kochavi pointed out the aforementioned by stating that the party “continues to exploit its relative superiority in camouflaging… and [hiding] underground”. This is in reference to the superiority of this tactic by which Hezbollah can contain the effects of the enemy’s military superiority in terms of intensity, speed, destruction and accuracy.

The party’s ingenuity, which is ever-present in the minds of the enemy’s leaders and experts, covered all areas. However, the most prominent these days is the sharp debate at all levels about whether the “Israeli” army possesses the readiness to fight a ground battle. This debate among senior experts and related institutions reveals the extent of concern over the issue of Hezbollah’s development and readiness to face the “Israeli” ground forces.

As a result, “Israel” is witnessing a continuing debate about the ability of its ground forces to be decisive in case of an incursion into Lebanese territory. It is striking that those who oppose this option directly acknowledge that Hezbollah is capable of confronting “Israeli” armored vehicles by relying on its fighters.

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In this regard, the former commander of the “Israeli” Air Force, Major General Amir Eshel, explained during the Herzliya conference a few days ago that the fighter is doing what the tank used to do in the past. He pointed out that even if a military squad penetrated deep into Lebanese territory, when it reaches the friction zone, Hezbollah fighters would emerge from the tunnels or behind them. This will lead to the crystallization of an equal field reality, which is very, very complicated!

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جيش العدو: مقاتل حزب الله يساوي دبابة

علي حيدر

الجمعة 12 تموز 2019

جيش العدو: مقاتل حزب الله يساوي دبابة

بعد 13 عاماً على حرب عام 2006 التي هدفت إلى سحق حزب الله وإقامة شرق أوسط جديد، عقد رئيس أركان جيش العدو أفيف كوخافي، جلسة لهيئة أركان الجيش في 16/1/2019، عرض فيها «غرافيكس» تشير إلى «عملية تحوّل خطيرة» يمرّ بها حزب الله (ومعه حركة حماس في قطاع غزة)، من ميليشيا إلى «جيش إرهابي» (ليس بالمعنى التنظيمي، بل على مستوى القدرات). رئيس الأركان شدد على أن «الفجوة النوعية» بين هذا «الجيش» والجيش الإسرائيلي تتقلص، وأن حزب الله (ومعه فصائل المقاومة الفلسطينية) يواصل التطور واستغلال تفوقه النسبي في التخفي وتحت الأرض، ويبني قوة هجومية ويحسِّن كمية صواريخه ودقّتها، ويُدخل إلى الخدمة وسائل قتالية جديدة نسبياً مثل المحلّقات والطائرات المسيّرة وغيرها.

يختصر مضمون هذا التقرير حقيقة نتائج حرب عام 2006، ويكشف عن حجم التحول الذي أحدثته في معادلات الصراع، وأبرزها أنها أسست لبلورة قوة مقاومة إقليمية باتت معالمها أكثر جلاءً اليوم. وتؤكد مفردات كوخافي القراءة الرسمية للمؤسسة الأمنية الإسرائيلية لحجم التحدي الذي يمثله الحزب في مواجهة الأطماع الإسرائيلية في لبنان والمنطقة.

لم يعد وصف حزب الله بالجيش مجرد اجتهاد صحافي مختص في تل أبيب، أو تقدير لأحد الخبراء (بغضّ النظر عمّا إذا كان الحزب يتبناه)، بل صدر على لسان رئيس الأركان الحالي للجيش. وهو ما يكشف عن حجم التحدي الذي يمثله حزب الله في وعي صناع القرار الأمني، ومن ورائهم المؤسسة السياسية في إسرائيل. وينطوي هذا التقويم الرسمي على بعدين: الأول أنه يكشف عن حجم الهزيمة التي تلقتها إسرائيل في حرب 2006 (لأن نتيجتها لم تقتصر فقط على فشلها في تحقيق أهدافها، بل إن حزب الله فرض إرادته وحقق كثيراً من أهدافه ذات الصلة في المرحلة التي تلت وبالاستناد إلى ما حققه من انتصار في تلك الحرب).

والثاني، أنه يكشف عن إدراك المؤسسة الإسرائيلية الأمنية للتهديد الاستراتيجي الذي أصبح يشكله حزب الله. ويفسّر كل هذا التردد لدى القيادة العليا في اتخاذ قرار بخوض مواجهة عسكرية مباشرة معه طوال السنوات التي تلت. فمَن كان بضعة آلاف من المقاتلين خلال حرب 2006، بحسب تعبير فينوغراد، أصبح جيشاً يهدد العمق الاستراتيجي للكيان الإسرائيلي، ويملك القدرة على الدفاع والهجوم أيضاً.

ما يفاقم المشكلة بالنسبة إلى إسرائيل، أن حزب الله، باعتراف كوخافي، يقلص الفجوة النوعية في مقابل تطور الجيش الإسرائيلي، وهو ما رفع مستوى الخطورة في وعي القادة العسكريين. وبالنسبة إلى صناع القرار السياسي، أضعف ثقتهم بكون خياراتهم وجاهزيتهم قادرة على تحقيق المؤمَّل من أي حرب مفترضة قد تشنها إسرائيل.

تنبع هذه الخطورة أيضاً، في الوعي الإسرائيلي، من حقيقة أن حزب الله استطاع أن يحقق كل هذه الانتصارات في مواجهة إسرائيل، ومن قبل أن يملك هذا المستوى من القدرات المتطورة، رغم أن إسرائيل كانت ولا تزال الأكثر تطوراً وقدرة على التدمير في كافة المستويات. وأبرز من اختصر سباق الجاهزية الدفاعية لحزب الله، والجاهزية العدوانية للجيش الإسرائيلي، أحد كبار ضباط المؤسسة العسكرية، الذي أوضح في محاضرة له قبل سنوات، أن الخبر الجيد في تطور الجاهزية، هو أن الجيش الإسرائيلي بات قادراً في أربعة أيام على ضرب ما احتاج إلى 33 يوماً في حرب عام 2006. لكنه يُضيف أن الخبر السيئ هو أن حزب الله بات قادراً أيضاً على أن يضرب في أربعة أيام ما قام به في 33 يوماً.

حزب الله بات قادراً على أن يضرب في أربعة أيام ما ضربه في 33 يوماً

ذروة التألق في هذا المسار أن جيش العدو أدرك أن حزب الله لم يقع في فخ التحول إلى جيش نظامي، بل طوَّع القدرات الاستراتيجية وفق تكتيك حرب العصابات، فأنتج صيغة غير مسبوقة نجح في ضوئها بمواجهة جيش يمتلك أحدث القدرات العسكرية والتكنولوجية، فسلب الإسرائيلي القدرة على الحسم ومنح حزب الله عنصري البقاء واستمرار النيران. وهو ما أشار إليه كوخافي أيضاً بالقول إن الحزب «يواصل استغلال تفوقه النسبي في التخفي… وتحت الأرض»، في إشارة إلى ما يوفره هذا التكتيك من تفوق يستطيع من خلاله حزب الله احتواء مفاعيل التفوق الناري لجيش العدو، كثافة وسرعة وتدميراً ودقة.

مع أن إبداعات الحزب، التي حضرت لدى قادة العدو وخبرائه، شملت كافة المجالات، إلا أن أكثرها حضوراً في هذه الأيام، هو السجال الحاد على كافة المستويات حول ما إذا كان الجيش الإسرائيلي يتمتع بالجاهزية لخوض معركة برية في مواجهة. يكشف هذا السجال والمديات التي بلغها بين كبار الخبراء وداخل المؤسسات ذات الصلة، عن حضور حجم تطور جهوزية الحزب لمواجهة سلاح البر الإسرائيلي. نتيجة ذلك، تشهد إسرائيل سجالاً متواصلاً حول قدرة سلاح البر على الحسم في حال اقتحام الأراضي اللبنانية. واللافت أن من يعارضون هذا الخيار، يقرّون مباشرة بأن حزب الله قادر من خلال الاعتماد على مقاتليه على مواجهة سلاح المدرعات الإسرائيلي. وفي هذا المجال أوضح قائد سلاح الجو الإسرائيلي السابق اللواء أمير إيشل، خلال مؤتمر هرتسيليا قبل أيام، أن المقاتل بات يقوم بما كانت تقوم به الدبابة في السابق. ولفت إلى أنه حتى لو توغلت فرقة عسكرية إلى عمق الأراضي اللبنانية، فإنها عندما ستصل إلى منطقة الاحتكاك سيخرج إليها (مقاتلو حزب الله) من الأنفاق ومن خلفها وما شاكل، وهو ما سيؤدي إلى تبلور واقع ميداني متساوٍ، وهو أمر معقد جداً جداً!

Sayyed Nasrallah Confident of Victory: I Have Big Hope that We Will Pray in Al-Quds! -UPDATED

July 13, 2019

Marwa Haidar

Stressing that the nation is witnessing the era of victories, Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah voiced confidence that the resistance will deal the Zionist entity a terrible defeat in the future war, voicing big hope that he will be one of those who will pray in Al-Quds.

In an exclusive interview with Al-Manar, Sayyed Nasrallah called on Israeli officials no to boast over their saying that the Zionist forces will “return Lebanon to Stone Age”.

On the thirteenth anniversary of July war in 2006, Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that the resistance today is more powerful than before; presenting its developed capabilities which he said will bring the Zionist entity to the “verge of vanishing”.Image result for Sayyed Nasrallah Confident of Victory:

Reiterating his well-known saying that ‘Israel’ is weaker than a spider web, Sayyed Nasrallah said that the Israeli enemy has failed to rebuild trust in its military capabilities, stressing that the Israeli commanders fear the resistance and don’t dare to start a war with Lebanon.

In a move that raised eyebrows upon the Zionist entity, Sayyed Nasrallah presented a map of occupied Palestine. The map showed dozens of Israeli targets to be hit by Hezbollah in any future war.

His eminence stressed that the Israeli coast which includes many strategic sites is under Hezbollah’s fire.

“Hezbollah at minimum is capable of inflicting huge destruction upon the Zionist entity.”

Sayyed Nasrallah meanwhile, said that Hezbollah fighters have become expert and well-prepared for the invasion of Galilee, noting that the resistance leadership has prepared several scenarios for such move.

On the other hand, he described as failed the summit which took place in Bahrain last month, stressing that the US President Donald Trump’s so-called ‘deal of the century’ is doomed to failure.

In this context, Sayyed Nasrallah noted that the Palestinian refugees reject to cede their land or to be naturalized.

Concerning the Lebanese borders demarcation, Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that the issue is the responsibility of the Lebanese state, voicing support to the government in such battle with the Zionist entity.

His eminence described what happened in Syria up till now as a great victory, noting that the Syrian state is recovering, but noting that there are other issues that are still not solved.

On Hezbollah presence in Syria, Sayyed Nasrallah said that the resistance movement has reduced its troop presence, noting that redeployment can be made when needed.

Hezbollah S.G. ruled out confrontation between Iran and the US, noting that Washington knows very well that the war with the Islamic Republic costs highly.

Sayyed Nasrallah also warned that such a war between Iran and the US will have dangerous repercussion on the entire region, including Saudi Arabia, UAE and the Zionist entity.

His eminence meanwhile, revealed that Ansarullah revolutionary movement processes missiles that can reach the entire Saudi and Emirati territories, but noted that the Yemeni group only wants the war to stop.

On the Lebanese local developments, Sayyed Nasrallah reiterated Hezbollah’s call for calm, referring to the shooting which targeted the convoy of a Lebanese minister in Mount Lebanon earlier this month.

Sayyed Nasrallah also said that Hezbollah will go ahead with counter-corruption campaign.

His eminence stressed meanwhile, that in face of US sanctions and blacklisting of Hezbollah lawmakers and officials, the resistance’s only choice is steadfastness.

‘Deterrence Balance’

Sayyed Nasrallah started the interview by congratulating al those who contributed to the divine victory “on top of which are the martyrs’ families, the injured and all the elements of the golden tripartite: the army, the resistance and the people.”Image result for Sayyed Nasrallah Confident of Victory:

His eminence said that deterrence equations set by the resistance with the Zionist entity since July war in 2006 have been consolidated, stressing that the “security which we witness in Lebanon nowadays is made by the Lebanese people themselves, thanks to their unity.”

Sayyed Nasrallah said that throughout 13 years and despite all pressures on the resistance, Hezbollah managed to develop its capabilities in all means.

“We have game-changing offensive weapons, along with human capabilities represented by Radwan Force and Al-Abbas Brigades (elite forces).”

“Our weapons have been developed in both quality and quantity, we have precision missiles and drones,” Sayyed Nasrallah said, stressing that Israeli commanders fear such capabilities.

The resistance leader did not give a clear answer if Hezbollah has anti-aircraft missiles.

“Who said we have (such weapon) and who said we don’t have, in this regard we adopt policy based on constructive ambiguity.”

‘Vulnerable Israeli Home Front’

Talking about the Israeli weak points, Sayyed Nasrallah said that Israeli commanders failed to find solution to the issue of its home front’s vulnerability.

“This front was detached from any war. However, July war took the battle into the Israeli home front. The resistance is more capable today to target and inflict losses upon the Israeli home front.”

All the Israeli attempts to rebuild trust in the Israeli home front have failed, Sayed Nasrallah said, noting that the Israeli military had staged in the latest years so many drill.

“But the Israeli enemy acknowledges that its human capabilities have deteriorated, and all know that the Israeli air force can’t make it alone in any war.”

His eminence referred to the Israeli threat of ‘returning Lebanon to the Stone Age’.

“I advise Israeli commanders to avoid war rhetoric since such rhetoric underestimates Lebanon.”

In this context, Sayyed Nasrallah reiterated his well-known saying which he announced in the southern town of Bint Jbeil in 2000: ‘Israel’ is weaker than a spider web.’

“Today I’m a firmer believer of this saying,” Sayyed Nasrallah stressed.

The Map

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Answering a question about the Israeli targets which would be hit in any coming war, Sayyed Nasrallah held a map showing the occupied Palestinian territories.السيد نصر الله: اي حرب جديدة ستضع اسرائيل على حافة الزوال

“The entire ‘Israeli’ north is under the resistance’s fire and the most strategic area is the ‘Israeli’ coast,” he said.

“The 70‐km long ‘Israeli’ coast starting from Netanya and ending by Ashdod is under the resistance fire, this area includes the most strategic Israeli sites (Ben Gurion airport, arms depots, petrochemical plants, Tel Aviv and Ashdod ports),” he elaborated.

In this context, Sayyed Nasrallah affirmed that the Israeli enemy today doesn’t dare to carry out any strike against Lebanon.

“Hezbollah at minimum is capable to inflict huge destruction on the Zionist entity. Our fighters have become expert and well-prepared for the invasion of Galilee, we have several scenarios in this regards.

On the other hand Sayyed Nasrallah ruled out a war with the Zionist entity in the near future: “Such war will put the Israelis on the verge of vanishing.”

‘We’ll Pray in Al-Quds’

Asked if he is confident of the victory in any upcoming war with the Zionist entity, Sayyed Nasrallah said: “I’m certain of the victory, God is with us.”

Marmal Asked Sayyed Nasrallah if he believes that liberation of Palestine will be achieved by his generation, his children’s generation or by grandchildren’s generation

Answering this question Sayyed Nasrallah said: “The ages are in the hand of Allah, but based on logic, I have big hope that we will pray in Al-Quds.”

‘Deal of the Century’

Noting that the Zionist entity relies on Western support and Arab states’ collaboration, Sayyed Nasrallah said the ‘deal of the century’ is doomed to failure since it lacks factors of success

“The US has fired the last bullet at the ‘deal of the century’ by recognizing Al-Quds as the Israeli capital.”

“They (US and allies) won’t achieve their goals because of the united Palestinian stance towards the ‘deal of the century’, Iran’s support and Syria’s victory.”

In this regard, Sayyed Nasrallah noted that no Arab state can bear the repercussions of the ‘deal of the century since the deal means the explicit abandoning of the nation’s holy sites. He also cited media reports which said that quoted Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner’s acknowledgment that the Bahrain summit had failed.

He pointed to huge pressures exerted by the US administration on the Palestinians over the ‘deal of the century’.

Regarding settling the Palestinian refugees, Sayyed Nasrallah said the issue “is neither related to Trump nor to Kushner, it’s related to the countries which are hosting the refugees.”

“Palestinian refugees in Lebanon refuse ceding their land as well as their settling.”

Border Demarcation

On the issue of demarcation of Lebanese land and maritime borders, Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that Hezbollah stands after the Lebanese government and its role is only supportive, pointing to the big role of Speaker Nabih Berri in this regard.

Related imageHis eminence noted that the talks on border demarcation are obstructed because the Zionist entity refuses Lebanese government’s insistence that the negotiation should be under the auspices of the United and the Nations and that the US takes the mediator role.

“If the talks are under the auspices of the US and not the UN, then Washington will exert all its efforts to meet the Israeli demands,” Sayyed Nasrallah warned.

His eminence also stressed the importance of discussing the land border in parallel with the issue of maritime border, noting that Speaker Berri insists on relating the two issues.

“When it comes to our Lebanese land we say this is our territory and the Israeli enemy won’t dare to get into it.”

‘Syria Victory’

Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that what has happened in Syria “is a great victory for the Axis of Resistance and a terrible defeat for the other camp.”

He said that the Syrian state is recovering, but noted that there have been some stalling issues including Idlib and east of Euphrates River along with the political settlement.

He noted that the Syrian government hasn’t requested Hezbollah’s engagement in the battle taking place in Idlib.

On the relation with Russia regarding the presence in Syria, Sayyed Nasrallah said the the Lebanese resistance movement deals with Russia as a friend, but stressed that the coordination only takes place with the Syrian defense ministry.

Answering a question on Hezbollah’s military presence in Syria, Sayyed Nasrallah said that the resistance has reduced its troop presence in the war-torn country, noting that “when it’s needed” Hezbollah can make some redeployment there.

Commenting on reports on Iran’s withdrawal from Syria, Sayyed Nasrallah said such move is not in Russia’s interest.

Hezbollah S.G. meanwhile, said that the Zionist entity always carries out strikes in Syria; noting that the latest attack was similar to others which targeted non-strategic targets.

However, Sayyed Nasrallah warned the Israeli enemy of taking risk by striking Syria. He addressed Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu as saying: “Do whatever you want… Iran won’t withdraw from Syria.”

Meanwhile, his eminence revealed that regular meetings always take place with Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad.

“I always meet President Bashar Al-Assad but I don’t say the time of such meetings due to security reasons.”

On the other hand, Sayyed Nasrallah reiterated a previous threat that if any member of Hezbollah is killed in Syria, the resistance will retaliate in Lebanon.

“This equation is still working.”

Noting that the situation will change when the S-300 missiles will become operational in Syria, Sayyed Nasrallah warned the Israeli enemy against “playing with the verge of abyss.”

“If the Israeli enemy carries out an unbearable strike in Syria, the Syrian leadership then may have other calculations.”

US, Iran Standoff

Stressing that Iran will not start a war with the US, Sayyed Nasrallah ruled out a similar move by Washington, saying that the White House knows very well that such move has a high cost.

Sayyed Nasrallah noted here that Trump relies on economic pressure on Iran.

However, Hezbollah S.G. did not rule out that events may escalate between the two sides, noting meanwhile that both Iran and the US will work to contain any escalation.

Referring to Iran’s downing of US spy drone, Sayyed Nasrallah dismissed Trump’s allegations that he stopped Iran strike after he was told that such strike would kill 150 people.

His eminence revealed that what really stopped the US strike on Iran is a message delivered from Tehran to the US through a third party.

“The message said that if the US strikes any Iranian target, Iran will hit US targets,” Sayyed Nasrallah said.

Meanwhile, Sayyed Nasrallah said that Iran won’t stage direct talks with the US, noting that this issue is agreed upon by all Iranian officials.

He said that the Iranians are open to all international efforts aimed at finding solution to the nuclear issue, but that Tehran insists that the US has to lift sanctions first.

On the possibility of having dialogue between Iran and regional countries, Sayyed Nasrallah said this move is interest of the entire region, and that the Islamic Republic ready to such step.

Asked about Hezbollah’s stance of dialogue between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Sayyed Nasrallah said that although Lebanon was hurt by the Saudis, we don’t reject such move.

“Even the Yemenis, who have been for years crushed by the Saudis, don’t reject dialogue between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Just one side fully rejects this step: Netanyahu.”

Meanwhile, Sayyed Nasrallah warned that if a war breaks out between Iran and the US, then no country will be safe.

“Any state that will participate in the war on Iran will pay high price,” Sayyed Nasrallah threatened, referring to the Zionist entity, Saudi Arabia and UAE, noting that the Axis of Resistance won’t keep mum in case of war.

Yemen

Sayyed Nasrallah said that Yemeni revolutionary forces are capable of widening the targeted area by their drone and missile attacks.

“Yemenis can hit any target across Saudi Arabia and UAE, but they don’t want escalation. All what they want is for this war to stop.”

Local Politics

Commenting on the shooting which targeted the convoy of minister Saleh al-Gharib earlier this month, Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that Hezbollah seeks de-escalation, lashing out at those who accuse Hezbollah of seeking discord within Druze.

“The incident was grave, and we were part of the de-escalation attempts. Accusations that Hezbollah seeks discord within Druze sect are immoral.”

“Local stability serves our interest. It’s normal to stand by our ally,” referring to Head of Druze Lebanese Democratic Party, Tal Arslan, whom minister Al-Gharib belongs to his party.

Al-Gharib’s two bodyguards were killed during the shooting which took place in Mount Lebanon on June 30.

On the relation between Hezbollah and the Head of Druze Progressive Socialist Party (PSP), Walid Jumblatt, Sayyed Nasrallah said the dispute between the two sides is great since 2005.

Sayyed Nasrallah elaborated on the disputed issues between Hezbollah and the PSP, stressing that Jumblatt’s remarks that Shebaa Farms are not Lebanese is fault.

Hezbollah S.G. meanwhile, stressed that the relation with President Michel Aoun and Free Patriotic Movement’s Head MP Gibran Bassil is excellent.

Commenting on US’ move to put Hezbollah MPs, Mohammad Raad Amin Sherri, along with Hezbollah senior official, Wafiq Safa, on sanctions blacklist, Sayyed Nasrallah said that Hezbollah officials congratulate such moves when they take place.

His eminence dismissed US envoy to Iran, Brian Hook’s remarks that sanctions on Iran have been putting pressure on Hezbollah.

“The sanctions have impact yes, but we are people of “Humiliation… Never” and we have several options to deal with the issue.”

Sayyed Nasrallah then praised resistance sacrifices, saying: “The resistance by a small number of martyrs is making honorable life for a whole nation.”

Addressing the resistance crowds who have been tweeting and posting on social media ahead of the interview, Sayyed Nasrallah said: “I love you and I feel proud of you.”

His eminence then concluded the interview by stressing that “the era of victory has come!”

Source: Al-Manar English Website

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