A negotiation to barter the referendum with sanctions تفاوض لمقايضة الاستفتاء بالعقوبات

A negotiation to barter the referendum with sanctions

أكتوبر 9, 2017

Written by Nasser Kandil,

All the available information from the scenes of the regional and the international relations that surround the project of the secession of Kurdistan ensures that the project was born dead, and that the stable convictions of the supports of the Kurdish leadership in the West in particular prove that the opportunities of success are nil, and that the ceiling of what can be done is the escalation to stop it by issuing a common international position that based on a bilateral; the unity of Iraq and the rights of the Kurds, through a negotiation that leads to an exit that face-saving those who got involved in the quest for secession in exchange of their smooth retreat of the sanctions which it seems that their continuation will drop all the gains achieved by the project of Kurdistan over the years.

The supporters of the secession were surprised at the size of harmony of the Turkish, Iranian, and Iraqi positions to the extent that some people described them with the ambush that was set for Al-Barazani to go in for the referendum and to fall in the trap through the standstill of Baghdad’s position throughout the period that separated between the declaration of the determination on the referendum, and the date of its holding. Baghdad did not show any vigor or determination, and there were not any indicators for Turkish- Iranian –Iraqi coordination as the size which appeared suddenly, after it was hidden for ten years at least, it appeared strongly contrary to all the expectations which depended on the apparent data, and which expected political warnings, mediations,  and admonition, they did not expect a decisive decision of suffocating blockade to the extent of threatening the state of secession by falling and maybe by the military invasion or at least extracting Kirkuk by force from it, along with Iraqi bordered line that links Iraq with Turkey and Iran, and besieges Kurdistan.

The supporters of the secession were surprised that the Russian position which supports the rights of Kurds considers that the unity of Iraq and the unity of Syria a red line for the stability in the region, and that the Turkish-Iranian understanding towards the state of secession constitutes a sufficient reason for the inclusion of Russia. It is the owner of a Russian- Iranian- Turkish- Syrian- Iraqi project that is achieved under the title of confronting the threat of the fragmentation of the region entities. Thus the understandings which the west  wants in Washington and the European capitals about Syria has become conditioned with the formula of the Turkish-Iranian understanding which is supported by Russia and which attracts Syria and Iraq. Its main condition is the fall of the state of secession.

The Europeans who sponsored historically and traditionally the Kurdish project in Iraq despite its political subordination to Washington and its distinctive relations with Israel and the Gulf have understood well the Syrian lesson. The goals on which Europe has drawn the foreign policy have changed. As the French President Emanuel Macron who called for a negotiation that preserves the unity of Iraq and the rights of the Kurds, and avoids the escalation said that the policies of spreading democracy and the human rights do not worth taking a risk of stability, because the generalization of the European values must not be at the expense of the security of Europe, the intension here surely is not the values but the colonial policies that are covered by these values. The war on Syria to overthrow the regime prove that the European cost was the dangerous population change through the flow of the displaced people, and the major security concern through the expansion and the rootedness of terrorism, in addition to the economic regression, the unemployment, and the recession. Those who concerned about the immigration of the Syrians will not take the risk of dismantling Turkey after Iraq and receiving tens of millions of the displaced people along with the chaos of the spread of terrorism.

The West which is preoccupied with the outcome of its long failed war on Syria cannot bear an adventure of ten years for another long failed war that dismantles Iraq and Turkey. The Gulf and Israel are incapable of providing the necessities for the continuation of igniting the war on Syria alone; they do not have what is needed to ignite other new wars. Thus the war of Syria seems to be the last war. It seems that the war of the Kurdish secession is weaker than to be born, but as a cold war of negotiation, in order to achieve the organized deterrence for hasty steps that lost the consideration of time and place.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

 

تفاوض لمقايضة الاستفتاء بالعقوبات

سبتمبر 30, 2017

ناصر قنديل

-تؤكد المعلومات المتوافرة كلّها من كواليس العلاقات الإقليمية والدولية المحيطة بمشروع انفصال كردستان أنّ المشروع قد ولد ميتاً، وأنّ القناعات الراسخة لدى المؤيدين للقيادة الكردية في الغرب خصوصاً، صارت بأنّ فرص النجاح باتت معدومة، وأنّ سقف ما يمكن هو الدخول على خط التصعيد لوقفه باستصدار موقف دولي جامع يقوم على ثنائية وحدة العراق وحقوق الأكراد، وتفاوض يحقق مخرجاً يحفظ ماء الوجه للذين تورّطوا بالسعي للانفصال مقابل تراجعهم السلس لقاء التراجع عن العقوبات التي يبدو أنّ مواصلتها سيسقط المكاسب كلّها التي حققها مشروع كردستان خلال سنوات طوال.

-فوجئ مؤيّدو الانفصال بحجم حدة وانسجام المواقف التركية والإيرانية والعراقية، لدرجة وصفها البعض بالكمين الذي نُصب للبرزاني للسير بالاستفتاء والوقوع في الفخ، عبر برودة موقف بغداد طوال الفترة الفاصلة بين إعلان العزم على الاستفتاء وموعد إجرائه، حيث لم تظهر بغداد أيّ حدة أو حزم، ولا ظهرت مؤشرات على تنسيق تركي إيراني عراقي بالحجم الذي ظهر فجأة. وهو وليد تحضير عمره شهور على الأقلّ بقي طيّ الكتمان حتى ظهر بقوة وزخم مخالفاً كلّ التوقعات المبنية على الظاهر من الأمور، والتي كانت تتوقع تحذيرات سياسية ووساطات وعتب، لكنها لم تتوقع قراراً حازماً بحصار خانق يصل حدّ تهديد دولة الانفصال بالسقوط، وربما بالاجتياح العسكري، أو على الأقلّ انتزاع كركوك بالقوة منها، ومعها شريط حدودي عراقي يربط العراق بتركيا وإيران ويسوّر كردستان.

-فوجئ مؤيّدو الانفصال بأنّ الموقف الروسي الداعم لحقوق الأكراد يعتبر وحدة العراق ووحدة سورية خطاً أحمر لصناعة الاستقرار في المنطقة، وبأنّ التفاهم التركي الإيراني تجاه دولة الانفصال يشكل سبباً كافياً لتنضمّ روسيا إليه، وهي صاحبة مشروع خماسية روسية إيرانية تركية سورية عراقية، وجدتها تتحقق تحت عنوان مواجهة خطر تفتيت كيانات المنطقة. وبالتالي صارت التفاهمات التي يريدها الغرب في واشنطن والعواصم الأوروبية حول سورية صارت حكماً مشروطة بصيغة التفاهم التركي الإيراني الذي تدعمه روسيا ويجذب حكماً سورية والعراق، وشرطه الأساس سقوط دولة الانفصال.

-ظهر الأوروبيون الذين رعوا تاريخياً وتقليدياً المشروع الكردي في العراق، رغم تبعيته السياسية لواشنطن وعلاقاته المميّزة بـ«إسرائيل» والخليج، وقد استوعبوا الدرس السوري جيداً. فالأهداف التي عملت أوروبا لرسم السياسة الخارجية على أساسها قد تغيّرت، كما قال الرئيس الفرنسي إيمانويل ماكرون الذي دعا لتفاوض يحفظ وحدة العراق وحقوق الأكراد ويتجنّب التصعيد، بأنّ سياسات نشر الديمقراطية وحقوق الإنسان، لا تستحقّ المغامرة بالاستقرار لأنّ تعميم القيم الأوروبية لا يجوز أن يتمّ على حساب أمن أوروبا، والقصد طبعاً ليس القيم بل السياسات الاستعمارية التي تغلّفها هذه القيم. وجاءت الحرب على سورية لإسقاط دولتها تقول إن الثمن الأوروبي هو تغيير سكاني خطير عبر تدفق موجات النازحين، وقلق أمني كبير عبر تمدّد وتجذر الإرهاب، عدا الركود الاقتصادي والبطالة والكساد، ومن أقلقته هجرة السوريين فلن يتحمّل المجازفة بتفكيك تركيا بعد العراق وتلقي عشرات ملايين النازحين ومعهم فوضى انتشار الإرهاب.

-الغرب المنهك بحاصل حربه الطويلة والفاشلة على سورية، لا يستطيع تحمل مغامرة عشر سنوات لحرب طويلة فاشلة أخرى تفكّك العراق وتركيا، والخليج و«إسرائيل» العاجزتان عن توفير مقومات السير بتوفير مستزمات وقود اشتعال الحرب في سورية وحدهما، لا تملكان بالتأكيد ما يلزم لإشعال حروب جديدة، لتبدو حرب سورية آخر الحروب، وتبدو حرب الانفصال الكردية أضعف من أن تولد، إلا كحرب تفاوض على البارد، بما يحقق الترادع المنظم لخطوات متسرّعة لرؤوس حامية أخطأت الحساب في المكان والزمان.

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In the reconciliation of Fatah and Hamas: Where is Israel? عن مصالحة فتح وحماس: أين «إسرائيل»؟

In the reconciliation of Fatah and Hamas: Where is Israel?

أكتوبر 9, 2017

Written by Nasser Kandil,

Anyone who believes in the Palestinian cause and the right of the Palestinian people must welcome every effort to end the division between Hamas and Fatah Movements, and which turned into a project of Palestinian – Palestinian civil war for more than once, and offered important services to the occupation project, the least of them was the military exclusive domination on Gaza and the humiliated exclusive domination in negotiation on Fatah, as well as the double –dealing with the contradictions. Despite the sticking to the national standards that are related to the main cause and how to approach it, it is necessary to estimate any political convergence or separation, where the demise of the division between the West Bank and Gaza is a great gain to the Palestinian cause whatever were the ceilings of the political meeting between Fatah and Hamas even if they were less than the resistance choice and its requirements. The position here is as the position towards protecting the civil peace in Lebanon, even if it was under sectarian ceilings and sharing positions and gains, because it grants some purity to the political life, stops shedding blood, and keeps the attention to the most important issues, so as every debate of the political ceiling is not a refusal of the reconciliation, as every support of it is not a blank acceptance of the content of the political understanding and its function.

There were many elements that contribute in the relation, tension, division, dialogue, and reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah most importantly is the Egyptian position, Qatar’s crisis with the Gulf and Egypt, and the decline of the regional presence of the Muslim Brotherhood where Hamas has put all of its importance to exaggerate it for a period of time, for its sake it abandoned its distinctive position in the axis of the resistance and its relation with its forces starting from Syria towards Iran and Hezbollah. Despite the reconciliation  for which Hamas is proceeding it tried to  contain all the tracks which were destroyed by the Muslim Brotherhood, most notably are the tracks of the relation with the forces of the resistance and the relation with Fatah and Egypt, it seems surrealistic to a high extent in politics , because these two tracks collide with the major choices according to what is required and needed from Hamas by these two tracks, but the objective contexts must make one of the two tracks secondary and the other is main, or one of them is a track of public relations and the other is a track of major choices, or one of them is tactical and the other is strategic. Maybe as many said, that each of the two tracks are for a choice that satisfies a team in Hamas, waiting for the other developments of drawing rules of conflict with the main concerned player, namely the occupation whether towards settlements or resistance.

The attempts of reconciliation are taking place regionally and internationally, on one hand the settlements background has everyday a new progress through Russian-American understanding which seems wider and more comprehensive than before. France seems on the bank which is related to the future of the conflict with Israel, on the other hand, there are Israeli threats of forthcoming war, maneuvers, preparations, and escalation in the political rhetoric towards the future of the negotiation with the Palestinian Authority, furthermore, there is a steady progress in the position of the axis of the resistance, the sources of its force, and its victories, all of that is in the light of the  decline in the political and the military US  status in the region, along with an apparent clear Russian progress. This confusion puts the Palestinian reconciliation which Hamas’s initiative of the abandonment of Gaza government played a crucial role in its birth, as it puts the relationship between Hamas and the axis of the resistance after the initiative of Hamas in a position in which Hamas  is getting prepared for a new stage in the region, that is related to the future of the Palestinian cause whether war or settlements, and its readiness to open up to the two choices according to the balance in its new leading form between the political bureau and its new leadership, the leadership of Al-Qassam, forces and the presidency of Hamas organization in Gaza, so Hamas will have a decision for every choice Haniyeh or Sinwar!.

Egypt and France are on the line of the American-Russian intersection of settlements; one of them is handling the file of the Palestinian- Israeli negotiation, and the other is handling the file of the Palestinian reconciliation in the light of increasing Israeli concern of the growing resources of power of the axis of resistance and the inability to find a military equivalent or political deterrence. This is the outcome of the Israeli visits to each of Washington and Moscow. In exchange of this growing concern there are advices to Israel to go to comprehensive settlement to possess an immunity of not being exposed to the risk of war. These advices as the guarantees in case of the full settlement are American and Russian. They are Russian by preventing a war and American by ensuring the superiority in it. This Russian – American movement which is going to be held in Paris needs a preparation in the region, where the most complicated demands are Palestinian. The Palestinian reconciliation will be held in Cairo. As Israel is suggesting a war without answering the inquires about a settlement, the sponsors will not object if the Palestinians have a bilateral of the negotiating ability and the ability to resist till the Israeli image becomes clear.

The ceiling which regionally and internationally raised to a settlement for the Palestinian cause under the title of Palestinian state on the occupied territories in 1967 and which its capital is the Eastern Jerusalem has been achieved due to the victories of the axis of resistance and their changing of the international and regional balances which surround the conflict with Israel, especially in Syria. Hamas and Fatah have accepted that settlement for a long time. During the path of the settlement in Syria and the Israeli concern of its consequences and conditions there are those who say that when the settlement of Syria starts, it will open the path of comprehensive settlement in the region, after it was proven that Israel is unable to translate the suggestion of war into a real war. The compensation which was desired by Israel and Saudi Arabia, after the settlement had included an improvement of the conditions and the situations of the forces of the axis of resistance was the formation of the Kurdish state, but it does not seem that Iraq, Turkey, and Iran are moving as the Kurds, the Israelis, and the Saudis wish.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

عن مصالحة فتح وحماس: أين «إسرائيل»؟

أكتوبر 4, 2017

ناصر قنديل

– لا يمكن لأي مؤمن بالقضية الفلسطينية وحق الشعب الفلسطيني إلا الترحيب بكل مسعىً لإنهاء الانقسام الذي نشأ بين حركتي وفتح وحماس، وتحوّل مشروع حرب أهلية فلسطينية ـ فلسطينية لأكثر من مرة، وقدّم خدمات جلّى لمشروع الاحتلال، أقلّها كان الاستفراد العسكري بغزة، والاستفراد المذلّ تفاوضياً بفتح، واللعب المزدوج على التناقضات بأسلوب العصا والجزرة، ورغم التمسّك بمعايير وطنية تتصل بالقضية الأساس وكيفية مقاربتها، لا بدّ منها في تقييم أي لقاء أو فراق سياسي، إلا أن مجرد زوال مناخ الانقسام بين الضفة وغزة هو كسب كبير للقضية الفلسطينية، مهما كانت سقوف اللقاء السياسي بين فتح وحماس، وحتى لو جاءت منخفضة كثيراً عن خيار المقاومة ومستلزماته. فالموقف هنا يشبه الموقف من حماية السلم الأهلي في لبنان، حتى لو كان تحت سقوف طائفية وتقاسم مناصب ومكاسب، لأنه يمنح الحياة السياسية بعضاً من نقاء، ويحقن الدماء، ويتيح بقاء الضوء على المهمّ والأهمّ، ولذلك كما كلّ نقاش للسقف السياسي ليس رفضاً للمصالحة، فكلّ تأييد لها ليس توقيعاً على بياض مضمون التفاهم السياسي ووظيفته.

– عناصر متعدّدة تداخلت على خط العلاقة والتوتر والانقسام والحوار والمصالحة بين حماس وفتح، منها وأبرزها موقف مصر وأزمة قطر مع الخليج ومصر، وتراجع الحضور الإقليمي لتنظيم الأخوان المسلمين الذي وضعت حماس لفترة كلّ رصيدها لتقيله وتزخيمه، وغامرت لأجله بالتخلّي عن موقعها المميّز في محور المقاومة وعلاقتها بقواه من سورية بداية، وصولاً إلى إيران وحزب الله. ورغم ان التصالح الذي تسير حماس نحوه يحاول أن يكون على كلّ المسارات التي دمّرت جسورها إخوانياً، وأبرزها مساري العلاقة بقوى المقاومة والعلاقة بفتح ومصر، وهو مما يبدو سوريالياً إلى حدّ كبير في السياسة، حيث يصطدم المساران بالخيارات الكبرى، بما يريده كلّ منهما من حماس ويأمله من تقرّبها منه ومصالحتها معه، إلا أنّ السياقات الموضوعية لا بدّ من أن تجعل أحد المسارين ثانوياً والآخر رئيسياً، أو أحدهما مسار علاقات عامة والثاني مسار خيارات كبرى، أو أحدهما تكتيكياً والآخر استراتيجياً. وربما كما يقول كثيرون من المتابعين، أن يكون كلّ من المسارين لخيار يرضي فريقاً في حماس، بانتظار ما تحمله التطورات من رسم لقواعد الصراع مع اللاعب الرئيس المعني، وهو الاحتلال، نحو التسويات أم نحو المقاومة؟

– تجري الحركة نحو المصالحة في مناخ مزدوج أيضاً، إقليمياً ودولياً، فمن جهة مناخ التسويات الذي يسجل كلّ يوم تقدّماً جديداً، بتفاهم روسي أميركي، يبدو أوسع وأشمل من الظاهر منه. وتبدو فرنسا على الطرف المتصل منه بمستقبل الصراع مع «إسرائيل»، ومن جهة مقابلة تهديدات «إسرائيلية» بحرب مقبلة، ومناورات واستعدادات، وتصعيد في الخطاب السياسي تجاه مستقبل التفاوض مع السلطة الفلسطينية، ومن جهة ثالثة تقدّم مضطرد في وضعية محور المقاومة ومصادر قوته وانتصاراته، وذلك كله في ظلّ تراجع في المكانة الأميركية العسكرية والسياسية في المنطقة، يوازيه تقدّم روسي ظاهر وواضح وراجح. وهذا الخلط في الأوراق يضع المصالحة الفلسطينية التي لعبت مبادرة حماس بالتنازل عن حكومة غزة، دوراً حاسماً في ولادتها، كما يضع علاقة حماس بمحور المقاومة وقد تمّت خطوات الترميم الأولى بمبادرة من حماس، في دائرة تهيؤ حماس لمرحلة جديدة في المنطقة تتصل بمستقبل القضية الفلسطينية، حرباً أو تسويات، واستعدادها للانفتاح

على الخيارين بقوة، بما يختصره التوازن في تركيبتها القيادية الجديدة، بين المكتب السياسي ورئاسته الجديدة، وقيادة قوات القسام ورئاسة التنظيم الحمساوي في غزة، فيكون لدى حماس لكل خيار قرار، هنيّة أم السنوار!

– مصر وفرنسا على خط التقاطع الأميركي الروسي في التسويات، إحداهما تمسك ملف التفاوض الفلسطيني «الإسرائيلي» والأخرى تمسك ملف المصالحة الفلسطينية، في ظل قلق «إسرائيلي» متزايد من تنامي مصادر قوة محور المقاومة، وعجز عن إيجاد مكافئ عسكري، أو رادع سياسي. وهذه حصيلة الزيارات «الإسرائيلية» لكل من واشنطن وموسكو، بل مقابل هذا التنامي نصائح لـ«إسرائيل» بالذهاب للتسوية الشاملة لامتلاك حصانة عدم التعرّض لخطر حرب، والنصائح أميركية روسية. والضمانات في حال التسوية الشاملة أيضاً روسية أميركية، روسية بمنع حدوث حرب، وأميركية بضمان التفوّق فيها. وهذا الحراك الروسي الأميركي الذي تنعقد خيوطه في باريس يحتاج تحضيراً في مسرح المنطقة، وأعقد متطلباته فلسطينية، فتنعقد خيوط المصالحة الفلسطينية في القاهرة. ومثلما تضع «إسرائيل» التلويح بالحرب على الطاولة، من دون أن تجيب بعد على أسئلة التسوية، فلن يعترض الرعاة أن يملك الفلسطينيون ثنائية القدرة التفاوضية والقدرة على المقاومة، حتى تنجلي الصورة «الإسرائيلية».

– السقف الذي ارتفع إقليمياً ودولياً الى تسوية للقضية الفلسطينية وصار عنوانه دولة فلسطينية على الأراضي المحتلة عام 67 عاصمتها القدس الشرقية، تحقَق بفضل انتصارات محور المقاومة وتغييرها التوازنات الدولية والإقليمية المحيطة بالصراع مع «إسرائيل»، خصوصاً في سورية، وحماس وفتح متموضعتان منذ زمن عند قبول تسوية هذا عنوانها، ومع مسار التسوية في سورية والقلق «الإسرائيلي» من مترتباتها وشروطها، ثمّة من يقول إن تسوية سورية عندما تبدأ بالإقلاع ستفتح مسار التسوية الشاملة في المنطقة، بعد ثبات العجز «الإسرائيلي» عن ترجمة التلويح بالحرب حرباً حقيقية، وأن التعويض الذي أرادته «إسرائيل» والسعودية لما قد تتضمنه التسوية من تحسين في شروط وأوضاع قوى محور المقاومة، كان قيام الدولة الكردية، لكن لا يبدو أن رياح العراق وتركيا وإيران تجري بما تشتهي السفن الكردية و«الإسرائيلية» والسعودية.

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حق تقرير المصير للكرد… ومعهم للعرب والترك أيضاً؟

سبتمبر 16, 2017

د. عصام نعمان

هزمت بريطانيا وفرنسا السلطنة العثمانية في الحرب العام 1918. أعلن مصطفى كمال اتاتورك وفاتها بإقامة الجمهورية في تركيا العام 1924. اختلف الورثة من تركٍ وعرب وكرد على حصر إرثها وتقاسم تركتها وما زالوا. المفارقة أنّ «قاتلَيّ» السلطنة تولّيا، من خلال مؤتمرات ومعاهدات نظّماها، تحديد هويات الورثة وعددهم وحصصهم الارثية. أقرّا للترك دولةً في برّ الاناضول. اصطنعا للعرب بضع دويلات في بلاد الشام وبلاد الرافدين. وعدا الكرد بدولة في مفاوضات معاهدة سافر Severes 1920 ثم أنكراها عليهم لاحقاً. منذ ذلك التاريخ تدير دول أوروبا، ومعها أميركا، نزاعاً متمادياً بين ورثة شرعيين وآخرين مفترضين للإرث العثماني التليد.

الكرد كانوا وما زالوا ساخطين على ما انتهت إليه قسمة التركة العثمانية: غالبيتهم أُبقيت في تركيا الكمالية. أقليتهم جُعلت من نصيب العراق وسورية. أما مَن كان منهم يعيش خارج السلطنة العثمانية فقد أُلحِق بالكيانات السياسية القائمة وأهمّها إيران.

دول الغرب قرّرت، اذاً، مصير الكرد. ليس مصير الكرد فحسب، بل مصير الترك والعرب والأرمن أيضاً، وهي ما

زالت تتلاعب بمصائر هذه الأقوام بقدر ما تتيحه موازين القوى الدولية. في هذا المجال، نشأت مفارقات لافتة. فالترك الذين أسقطت أوروبا امبراطوريتهم وتصرفت بـ «ممتلكاتها» انحازوا إلى دولها في الصراعات الدولية التي أعقبت الحرب العالمية الثانية 1945-1939. والعرب الذين كانت بريطانيا وعدت الشريف حسين الهاشمي بدولة تضمّ الولايات العربية المطلوب سلخها عن السلطنة العثمانية أُحبِطوا فارتضى بعض قادتهم نصيبه من التركة التي جرى تقاسمها، واعترض بعضهم الآخر. أما جمهورهم الأوسع فكان وما زال يتوق الى إقامة دولة واحدة تضمّ الشتات.

اليوم يعود بعض الكرد بقيادة مسعود البرزاني الى طرح مسألة حق تقرير المصير، وأقرّ تنظيم لذلك استفتاء في 25 الشهر الحالي ليشارك فيه سكان المناطق العراقية الواقعة تحت سلطة قواته البيشمركة . الدول الحاضنة لسكانٍ أكراد تركيا، العراق، سورية، إيران رفضت مشروع الاستفتاء، كما أنّ الولايات المتحدة أعلنت رفضها ؟ له أيضاً. بعض هذه الدول رفض مبدأ الاستفتاء وطلب إلغاءه. بعضها الآخر طلب تأجيله. البرزاني أعلن تمسكه بإجرائه في موعده مع انّ قوى سياسية كردية عدّة تعارض إجراءه في الوقت الحاضر. الى أين من هنا؟

يرسم إصرار البرزاني على إجراء الاستفتاء رغم المعارضة الدولية الواسعة علاقة استفهام كبيرة. ذلك أنّ القيادات الكردية المتعاقبة حرصت بعد الحرب العالمية الثانية على التعاون مع دول الغرب، ولا سيما بريطانيا والولايات المتحدة، والانخراط في مخططاتها وسياساتها وحروبها لدرجة حملت بعض معارضيها في العراق على تسميتها «تاكسي الدول»، فهل يتجاوز البرزاني تقليداً اتبعه معظم أسلافه ويمضي في الاستفتاء إلى النهاية برغم الدول المعارِضة… وكيف ستكون النهاية؟

يرى بعض المراقبين أنّ البرزاني يناور ولا يصادم، وأنه يحاول استغلال حال الاضطراب والفوضى التي يعيشها العراق وحال الشجار والاختلاف التي تمرّ بها الدول الإقليمية والدول الكبرى كي يعزّز مركزه التفاوضي إزاء حكومة بغداد بغية حملها على تقديم تنازلات في مسألتين رئيسيتين: إقرار «حق» الأكراد في محافظة كركوك وفي المناطق المتنازع عليها في محافظات نينوى وصلاح الدين وديالى التي تضع البيشمركة يدها عليها، وتكبير حصة إقليم كردستان في ميزانية الدولة الاتحادية وفي عائدات النفط المستخرَج من منابعه في الإقليم المذكور.

فوق ذلك، يبتغي البرزاني تنازلاً آخر: موافقة جميع الأطراف، العراقية والإقليمية والدولية، على تأجيل الاستفتاء وليس على إلغائه. ذلك أنّ تأجيل الاستفتاء ينطوي على معنى الإقرار بحق تقرير المصير، رغم الانصياع إلى مطلب إرجاء تنفيذه، بينما يعني إلغاء الاستفتاء إنكار حق تقرير المصير برمّته.

قد يتوصّل أطراف النزاع إلى تسويةٍ للخلاف بالتوافق على مصطلح ديبلوماسي يؤمّن مخرجاً ولو مؤقتاً من حال التأزّم والحرج، أو قد يُترك البرزاني لمصيره في تنفيذ استفتاء لن يكون له في الظروف الراهنة مفعول أو مردود عملي. لكن سؤالاً مصيرياً يبقى مطروحاً وضاغطاً على جميع أطراف الصراع: كيف يمكن الخروج من المعضلة التاريخية؟

المعضلة التاريخية هي حاجة جميع أقوام السلطنة العثمانية المهزومة إلى تقرير المصير من جهة، ومن جهة أخرى ضرورة ألاّ يمارس كلٌّ من هذه الأطراف حقه في وجه الآخرين وعلى حسابهم. فالعرب والكرد والترك وغيرهم من الأقوام لهم الحق بتقرير المصير الذي مارسته عنهم عنوةً بريطانيا وفرنسا غداةَ انهيار السلطنة العثمانية باصطناع كياناتٍ سياسية هشّة وقيامهما بتوزيعهم عليها اعتباطاً بينها أو في داخلها.

كيف تمارس هذه الأقوام حقها في تقرير المصير بعد أن انتهت الرقعة الجغرافية التي كانت تسيطر عليها السلطنة العثمانية في المشرق الى ما انتهت اليه من كياناتٍ متعددة، ركيكة ومتنازعة؟ أبالاحتراب في ما بينها أم بالحوار؟ وكيف يكون الحوار في هذا الزمن الصعب؟

الجواب: برسم مسار طويل يبدأ بتعايش الأقوام داخل كلّ كيانٍ من كيانات بلاد العرب والترك واتحادها في طلب الحرية والديمقراطية وفي بناء دولة مدنية على أسس حكم القانون والعدالة والتنمية. والمأمول أنّ بلوغ هذه الأقوام حال الدولة المدنية الديمقراطية يضعها أمام خيارين: 1 البقاء فيها بإطار نظام مركزي ديمقراطي أو اتحادي فدرالي ديمقراطي، أو 2 الحوار والتفاوض مع الأطراف المعنيين لتحقيق الاستقلال بمودة وإحسان.

كِلا الخيارين أقلّ كلفةً من النزاع والاحتراب.

وزير سابق

Venezuela – The National Constituent Assembly is in Place – But the fight for Sovereignty isn’t Over

by Peter KoenigVenezuela – The National Constituent Assembly is in Place – But the fight for Sovereignty isn’t Over

Venezuela has voted on 30 July for a National Constituent Assembly (ANC – Asamblea Nacional Constituyente) with a resounding close to 8.1 million votes, or over 41% of the total eligible electorate. The figure was confirmed by the president of the National Electoral Council, Tibisay Lucena. The Chavistas battle cry before the elections was Venceremos! – Ché Guevaras favored revolutionary slogan. And the day after, 31 July, the victorious Ganamos! Accompanied by dancing in the streets.

To counter the mainstream presstitute mass media slandering of Venezuela, calling the legitimate democratically elected President a dictator, and that the vote was illegitimate and against the present Venezuelan Constitution – lets explain upfront what the Constitution says:

Article 347 of Venezuela’s constitution:

“The original constituent power rests with the people of Venezuela. This power may be exercised by calling a National Constituent Assembly for the purpose of transforming the State, creating a new juridical order and drawing up a new Constitution.”

Article 348 states

“(t)he initiative for calling a National Constituent Assembly may emanate from the President of the Republic sitting with the Cabinet of Ministers; from the National Assembly by a two-thirds vote of its members; from the Municipal Councils in open session, by a two-thirds vote of their members; and from 15% of the voters registered with the Civil and Electoral Registry.”

Article 349 states

“(t)he President of the Republic shall not have the power to object to the new Constitution. The existing constituted authorities shall not be permitted to obstruct the Constituent Assembly in any way.”

The process to vote for the ANC is complex but highly democratic. The 30 July election chose 545 members to the National Constituent Assembly, of which two thirds (364) were elected on a regional or territorial basis, and one third (181) by sectors of professions or activities, i.e. students, farmers, unions of different labor forces, employees, business owners – and so on. This cross-section of people’s representation is the most solid basis for democracy. See also http://www.globalresearch.ca/why-is-venezuela-in-the-white-houses-crosshairs/5594240.

The 8.1million pro-ANC vote may, at first sight, with 41% of total eligible voters not constitute an absolute majority, but they are a legitimate majority analyzed from different perspectives. The only historic data we currently have on Venezuela is the one from the 1999 Constitution (still valid today), which President Hugo Chavez Frias, elected in 1998, initiated after asking the people whether they agreed to the drafting of a new Constitution. He received an overwhelming 80% support.

Assuming that on average about 20% to 25% of the electorate do not vote (based on the past 19 elections since the Bolivarian Revolutionary Government took over in 1998), of the 20 million eligible electorate, about 15 million could be expected to vote. With 8.1million ANC supporters, the National Constituent Assembly resulting from the 30 July elections is a clear majority, about 54%.

The election result is another resounding victory, when compared to the opposition’s plebiscite, illegally held a week earlier. The opposition claims having received 7.2 million votes against the ANC. However, by all observers, including internationals, this is a highly questionable and probably vastly inflated figure (based on their election boots which were a fraction of those of the ANC election process countrywide. Plus, the announced result cannot be checked, as the voter’s bulletins were burned by the opposition, as soon as they informed the public of the plebiscite’s result. However, even assuming this figure was correct – which it most likely isn’t – the total alleged votes cast between de official ANC process and the illegitimate referendum would amount to 15.3 million, of which 8.1 million represents about 53%, or an absolute majority of the votes cast.

For analysis sake, let’s just look at the curious composition of votes the oppositions claims having received. In their referendum people had to respond with yes, or no to three questions, with each one being a leading question against the ANC. Each one of the three answers counted for one vote, thus, there were up to three votes per person. The same people also were allowed to vote in several districts. During the press conference held by the opposition, a journalist asked whether it was correct that one voter could cast his / her vote 17 times. The answer of one of the directors was yes, but it may bediscovered at the final count. There were also stories of 10-year old kids and other minors voting. Also, there are 101,000 eligible voters abroad – but according to the opposition, the votes received from Venezuelans living outside Venezuela were almost 700,000.

The illegitimate – yes, illegitimate – opposition vote is pure farce. Though it can never be checked, since the votes were burned and given the above details, the promulgated results of 7.2 million votes against the ANC would have to be discounted by at least 30% to 50%. Yes, illegitimate, as the Constitution does not allow interference from anybody, once the ANC process has been launched.

Curiously though, the opposition, having the majority in the National Assembly could have initiated themselves an National Constituent Assembly. They didn’t. They could have actively participated in President Maduro’s ANC vote and presented their own candidates as they would have, had they respected the principles of democracy. They didn’t do that either. It is clear, they are not interested in a democratic process. They are not interested even in dialogue, one of Mr. Maduro’s priorities for conflict resolution. They want a violent ‘regime change’ – that’s what their Washington masters want and pays them for.

——–

The most vociferous critics of the process came from the usual villains, CNN, BBC, Washington Post, NYT, even The Guardian, but so far relatively few from the EU and her members. One of the countries that sticks out most with her unsolicited comment is “neutral” Switzerland, where the Ministry of Foreign Affairs called on President Maduro, to cancel the elections for the new National Constitutional Assembly in ‘respect of democracy’. It further declared through the Swiss state-run radio-TV station, SRG, that the elections were illegal, as they are against the Constitution – which is a blatant lie, the Swiss Executive is aware of, but it pleases for sure Washington.

The Trump Administration also said it would not recognize the vote and slammed more heavy sanctions on Venezuela, among them, blocking President Maduro’s alleged ‘assets held in the US’. This in itself is a massive and ridiculous propaganda falsehood. It must be clear to any dimwit, that President Maduro does not have assets in the US. Washington forced ‘sanctions’ will probably also follow from its European vassals.

The right-wing puppet leaders (sic) in Latin America have of course also immediately played to the tune of their northern masters. The first one to do so was Peru’s President Pablo Kuczynski, saying that his government would not recognize the result of the elections. But who cares what Peru thinks about sovereign democratic Venezuela? – His arrogance went as far as calling upon the Peruvian Prime Minister to form a committee that should look into possible actions Peru could and should take against Venezuela. If one knows the level of corruption that literally runs Peru – one of the worst, if not the worst of all Latin America – and the way Kuczynski was ‘elected’, or rather shoed in by his Washington Masters, one can just chuckle in disbelief. If there was any un-bought, uncorrupted functioning legal system in Peru – the last five consecutive Presidents would now be in jail for corruption and crimes against humanity, including the present one.

Of course, Colombia and Mexico, among the staunchest vassals of the northern empire were also accusing Venezuela’s ANC initiative as being illegitimate, anti-democratic, for the sole purpose of allowing President Maduro to become a dictator and to bend the new Constitution so that he may stay President for life. None of this is of course intended or in the cards, or indeed allowed under the Constitution and the National Assembly still in place. In fact, according to the Constitution, neither the President or the National Assembly which is not being resolved or replaced by the new National Constituent Assembly, have a right to interfere in ANC’s process of drafting a new Constitution.

On a recent visit to Mexico, the ultra-right-wing (Tea Party) CIA chief, Mr. Pompeo, pledged for both Mexico and Colombia to help assure that the situation in Venezuela is being corrected. Let’s not forget, Colombia’s President Santos (the latest Peace Nobel Laureate!) has already several months ago asked Brussels to send NATO troop to Colombia. They may already be there. With a 2,200 km porous border between Colombia and Venezuela, infiltration of Colombian and NATO troops into Venezuela would not be complicated (http://www.globalresearch.ca/venezuela-washingtons-latest-defamation-to-bring-nato-to-south-america/5575480).

Among the few but strong supporters of the ANC and which called for the world to respect this legitimate and democratic process, were Nicaragua, Bolivia, Ecuador, Cuba, Iran, China and Russia. Others may follow. So far Brussels has only been mumbling. What remains to be seen is how these countries, notably Russia and China, would react, when it comes down to the wire with a possible CIA / US / NATO instigated coup à la Maidan, in Kiev, Ukraine, in 2014.

———

Why did President Maduro call now for a National Constituent assembly to modify or redraft the current Constitution? – The answer is simple. Dictators around the world, like France under Macron, the UK under Mme. May, and probably soon Germany under Mme. Merkel, would call for Martial Law to clamp down ‘legitimately’ on the peoples’ rights and carry through their atrocious militarization and austerity programs, as well as to ’selectively curtail foreign influence’.

President Maduro, instead, follows democratic principles to the core. The purpose of a new or reality adjusted Constitution has precisely to do with foreign interference to the detriment of Venezuela’s economy. They include outside orchestrated food and medical supply shortages; from Miami manipulated black-market vs. official exchange rates, ruining local purchasing power, thereby causing inflation and a sagging economy; foreign news networks deadly propaganda; and infiltration of foreign trained, armed and funded violent terror groups to help organizing the relatively small Venezuelan elitist opposition to cause havoc and civil unrest – as we have seen over the last several months in the runup to these ANC elections. The US State Department funded NED – National Endowment for Democracy – is a key sponsor of violent opposition in Venezuela, as well as elsewhere in the world. The new or adjusted Constitution is expected to allow the government to sovereignly control its borders and its economy with whatever means it has to take to keep the criminals out and regain full sovereignty.

These vicious foreign supported groups have cost the life of some110 people during the last few months leading up to the ANC vote, through the most horrendous acts of terror, including lynching, burning alive, shooting, looting of shops, attacking and destroying schools, public infrastructure, police headquarters and more. There is no end to the list of heinous crimes committed by the so-called opposition – which is nothing else as a tool for the Washington tyrant-in-chief, who will not let go until he has achieved ‘regime change’.

The presstitute doesn’t present this real picture of things. They portray the violence and dead toll as the government’s responsibility. In fact, thanks to the diligence of national police and the 200,000 military forces deployed throughout the country in the last couple of weeks to protect the population, the voters, in the leadup to the elections, violence and dead tolls were kept in check. Violent outbreak would have most likely been even more atrocious without the military deployment.

A new puppet government would return Venezuela to the pre-Chavez years – or most likely much worse – giving away Venezuelans world’s largest hydrocarbon deposit is to US petrol giants and torturing Chavistas and anybody who had in the past opposed and still opposes the violent undemocratic, oppressive servile-to-Washington elite.

—–

What’s next for Venezuela? – Well, it’s not over. The National Constituent Assembly is just the first step. The rabid bulldog will not let go. He keeps attacking and biting relentlessly and without merci sovereign democratic and un-obedient Venezuela. The steady internal foreign instigated economic and social decay, the build-up to what prompted President Maduro to initiate the ANC vote, was very reminiscent of the fascist 9/11/1973 CIA instigated military coup in Chile.

The Chile coup was also preceded by artificially and outside instrumented shortages of food and medical supplies – paying people to protest in the streets. The only difference there is that the Chilean army was split and high ranks defected President Allende. This doesn’t seem to be the case in Venezuela. – The overwhelming people’s support for the ANC has further cemented the solidarity within the Bolivarian Republic – and given the revolution new energy. Venezuela will prevail. Venceremos!

Peter Koenig is an economist and geopolitical analyst. He is also a former World Bank staff and worked extensively around the world in the fields of environment and water resources. He lectures at universities in the US, Europe and South America. He writes regularly for Global Research, ICH, RT, Sputnik, PressTV, The 4th Media (China), TeleSUR, The Vineyard of The Saker Blog, and other internet sites. He is the author of Implosion – An Economic Thriller about War, Environmental Destruction and Corporate Greed – fiction based on facts and on 30 years of World Bank experience around the globe. He is also a co-author of The World Order and Revolution! – Essays from the Resistance.

Hezbollah Liberates Al-Nusra Stronghold in Eastern Lebanon

[ Ed. note – This is a major victory for Hezbollah. The last Al-Nusra stronghold in Lebanon, in the Arsal Mountains on the border with Syria, has been cleared of terrorists. In addition to the RT report above, I am also posting a Hezbollah statement expressing solidarity with Christians and paying tribute to Father Jaques Hamel, a French priest murdered by ISIS terrorists one year ago.

Christians all over the world should be grateful to Hezbollah for its defense of Christians in the Middle East. To the brave fighters of Hezbollah: we thank you. ]

From the Islamic Resistance in Arsal to Father Jacques Hamel… A Homage of Brotherhood and Loyalty

Alahed News

For all mankind, they fought. To all the oppressed, they dedicated their victories. Victims of terrorism spread everywhere like the plague; terrorism which does not distinguish among religions and races.

From the Lebanese Arsal outskirts, are Resistance fighters who offered their most precious in the battle of victory for just and humanity against Takfiri terrorism.

As Hezbollah Secretary General His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah offered the victory in Arsal outskirts to both Christians and Muslims, the unjustly slain Father Jacques Hamel had his share of the victory.

The Islamic Resistance’s Mujahedeen in the outskirts did not forget their Christian brothers, particularly Father Hamel. Hence, they saluted his sacrifice via message to al-Ahed news website written in French.

The message reads: “Your spirit will never die. Generations will live on your memory. Rest in peace knowing that we will protect our Christian brothers. Peace be upon you. Your brothers in Hezbollah.”

Father Jacques Hamel, born on November 30th 1930, was a French priest in the parish of Saint-Étienne-du-Rouvray. He was murdered during the Normandy church attack by the Wahhabi Daesh [Arabic acronym for “ISIS” / “ISIL”] terror group on July 26, 2016.

Neither his age nor religious rank were able to spare the 86-year-old priest from the Wahhabi monsters’ claws who never gave any regard to religion nor humanity.

Today, the sons of the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon had triumphed for the spilled blood of the unjustly slain priest.

Despite the pain, the wounds and the hardships of Jihad, the Resistance – from the heart of Arsal Outskirts – did not forget to pay tribute to Father Hamel as to assert that the battle with Takfiri terrorism is one, and that their resistance is to defend all humanity and religions.

Accordingly, this is not the first time Hezbollah fighters had honored their fellow Christians as the land of Ma’loula which had been liberated from the Takfiris, bears witness to the purity of the battle these men are waging. This battle is the strongest evidence of the unity of religions in the face of the Takfiri terrorism.


A little bit more about Father Jaques Hamel from Wikipedia:

Hamel was ordained as a priest on 30 June 1958.[12][17] He served as a vicar at the St. Antoine church in Le Petit-Quevilly from 1958, a vicar at the Notre-Dame de Lourdes church in Sotteville-lès-Rouen from 1967, a parish priest in Saint-Pierre-lès-Elbeuf from 1975, and a parish priest in Cléon from 1988. He joined the church in Saint-Étienne-du-Rouvray in 2000.[18] He officially retired at the age of 75, but was allowed to keep serving in the parish.[13] As a result, he assumed his role as the parish’s assistant priest from 2005 to his death.[18]

With local imam Mohammed Karabila, the president of Normandy’s regional council of Muslims, Hamel worked since early 2015 on an interfaith committee.[12][19] After Hamel’s death, Karabila described him as his friend with whom he had discussed religion and as also someone who gave his life for others.[20]

Hamel died when his throat was slit by two Muslim men, Adel Kermiche and Abdel Malik Petitjean, who both pledged allegiance to the Islamic State.[21][22][23][24] The attack occurred while Hamel was saying Mass in his parish in Saint-Étienne-du-Rouvray on 26 July 2016.[25][26] During the attack, Hamel said “Satan, go!” when confronted by his killers.[3]


Saint-Étienne-du-Rouvray is in the French region of Normandy…


Report from July 27, 2017–one year and one day after Father Hamel’s death…”Satan  go…”…God works in mysterious ways…

Arsal Battle: Nusra Urged to Surrender or Face Death, Battle Almost Over

Alahed News

The Resistance’s accomplishments in its battle in the outskirts of Arsal had been quick and swift. In a few days’ time, the mighty revolutionaries were able to lift the banners of victory over the outskirts’ hills and mountains amid retreats among the ranks of terrorists.

Five days after the start of the offensive in Arsal, the Takfiri al-Nusra Front terrorists are facing an ultimatum: to leave or face eminent death.

As the offensive in the outskirts of Arsal reached its sixth day Wednesday, attention has turned to the looming deadline set by Hezbollah for negotiations with the al-Nusra, and a scheduled evening speech by Hezbollah Secretary General His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.

With the injury of the Nusra chief of operations Omar Wardi after being hit by resistance gunfire, the terrorist group’s militants retreated, Hezbollah War Media Center said.

The center further added that the area occupied by the Nusra terrorists in the outskirts of Arsal had shrank to 10%.

The coming hours will be crucial in determining the outcome of negotiations with Nusra militants whose positions on Arsal outskirts are besieged.

Source: Hezbollah War Media Center, Translated by website team

From the Islamic Resistance in Arsal to Father Jacques Hamel… A Homage of Brotherhood and Loyalty

For all mankind, they fought. To all the oppressed, they dedicated their victories. Victims of terrorism spread everywhere like the plague; terrorism which does not distinguish among religions and races. 

From the Lebanese Arsal outskirts, are Resistance fighters who offered their most precious in the battle of victory for just and humanity against Takfiri terrorism.As Hezbollah Secretary General His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah offered the victory in Arsal outskirts to both Christians and Muslims, the unjustly slain Father Jacques Hamel had his share of the victory.

The Islamic Resistance’s Mujahedeen in the outskirts did not forget their Christian brothers, particularly Father Hamel. Hence, they saluted his sacrifice via message to al-Ahed news website written in French.

The message reads:

“Your spirit will never die. Generations will live on your memory. Rest in peace knowing that we will protect our Christian brothers. Peace be upon you. Your brothers in Hezbollah.”

Hezbollah fighter

Hezbollah fighter

Father Jacques Hamel, born on November 30th 1930, was a French priest in the parish of Saint-Étienne-du-Rouvray. He was murdered during the Normandy church attack by the Wahhabi Daesh [Arabic acronym for “ISIS” / “ISIL”] terror group on July 26, 2016.

Neither his age nor religious rank were able to spare the 86-year-old priest from the Wahhabi monsters’ claws who never gave any regard to religion nor humanity.

Today, the sons of the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon had triumphed for the spilled blood of the unjustly slain priest.

Despite the pain, the wounds and the hardships of Jihad, the Resistance – from the heart of Arsal Outskirts – did not forget to pay tribute to Father Hamel as to assert that the battle with Takfiri terrorism is one, and that their resistance is to defend all humanity and religions.

Accordingly, this is not the first time Hezbollah fighters had honored their fellow Christians as the land of Ma’loula which had been liberated from the Takfiris, bears witness to the purity of the battle these men are waging. This battle is the strongest evidence of the unity of religions in the face of the Takfiri terrorism.

Hezbollah fighters

Hezbollah fighter

Source: Al-Ahed News

29-07-2017 | 16:31

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