كركوك وانتحار البرزاني

كركوك وانتحار البرزاني

ناصر قنديل

أكتوبر 17, 2017

– عندما هدّد داعش كركوك وصار على أبوابها هبّت واشنطن لتعلنها خطاً أحمر، وتركت البشمركة تتموضع فيها وفي حقول نفطها، وكما سعت قبل أيام لنقل الوحدات الكردية إلى حقول نفط دير الزور وترك الرقة لتنظيم داعش، منعاً لاقتراب الجيش السوري، عادت فنقلت وحدات داعش إلى هناك للهدف نفسه، وها هي ترفع الصوت عالياً لقيام الجيش العراقي بدخول كركوك وحقول نفطها.

– عندما أعلن مسعود البرزاني الاستعجال بالاستفتاء على انفصال كردستان، كان واضحاً أن الأمر لا صلة له بسبب يتعلق بحق تقرير المصير الذي انتظر شهوراً لنهاية داعش وانعقاد حوار عراقي شامل لرسم خريطة المستقبل، وقد انتظر عشرات السنين. فالاستعجال هو لاستباق نهاية داعش وفرض أمر واقع يتصل بالاحتفاظ بكركوك التي تمّت السيطرة الكردية عليها تحت غطاء إبعاد داعش عنها. كما كان واضحاً أن نتيجة الاستفتاء الكردي ستكون سلبية إذا كانت كردستان من دون كركوك. كما كان واضحاً أكثر أن الاستفتاء الذي قد تخضع شرعية إجرائه في المحافظات الكردية الثلاث لكثير من الاجتهادات والنقاشات، إلا أن إجراءه من طرف واحد في كركوك هو غير شرعي وباطل، ومشروط بتوافق وإشراف الحكومة المركزية في بغداد، طالما كركوك مصنفة كمحافظة متنازع عليها، وبالتالي يصير واضحاً أنه بقدر ما النيات المبطنة للاستفتاء تقوم على السطو على كركوك، فإظهار حسن النية يبدأ بإعادة كركوك للسيادة العراقية وإلغاء نتائج الاستفتاء فيها، والرفض في هذه الحال يعني قرار حرب.

– جاءت مواقف العراق وسورية وتركيا وإيران تقول لقادة إقليم كردستان إنها تأخذ شعبها للانتحار بالعناد الذي تبديه بالسطو على كركوك. وكانت قيادات كردية عاقلة ومعتدلة لا يُستهان بوزنها، وعلى رأسها الاتحاد الوطني الكردستاني، حزب الرئيس الراحل جلال الطالباني، تدعو لاستثناء كركوك من الاستفتاء وربط مستقبلها بالتوافق العراقي، وتسريع تسليمها للحكومة المركزية في بغداد، وصار التوافق العراقي الإيراني التركي السوري أن يجد نقطة لقاء مع هذه القيادة الكردية عنوانها، إلغاء نتائج الاستفتاء في كركوك، وإعادة كركوك إلى حضن الدولة العراقية كمدخل لحوار هادئ ينهي القضايا العالقة ومن ضمنها يبحث مصير الاستفتاء.

حمل الجنرال قاسم سليماني الصورة كاملة لقيادة البرزاني، داعياً لتلقف الفرصة قبل الدخول في مرحلة يصعب معها العودة إلى الوراء، فكان الردّ باستجلاب عناصر حزب العمال الكردستاني إلى كركوك، عشية انتهاء المهلة ليل الأحد الإثنين. وبدأت العملية التي استعد لها الجيش العراقي ووحدات الحشد الشعبي. واتخذت فصائل البشمركة في كركوك موقفاً إيجابياً، وهي في غالبها تتبع لحزب الطالباني، ومثلها العاصمة الكردية الثانية في السليمانية التي تسعى لتوافق مع دول الجوار ومع الحكومة المركزية في بغداد، بخلاف أربيل وزعيمها البرزاني، ما جنّب العراق والمنطقة حرباً أهلية تجتمع فيها حكومات العرب وإيران وتركيا بوجه الأكراد، لتنقذ الحكمة الطالبانية المنطقة من الخطة «الإسرائيلية» الهادفة لحروب تقوم على اصطفافات عرقية صافية. كما حدث عندما أحبطت حلب ودمشق حلم الحرب المذهبية في سورية.

ما جرى في كركوك سيشكل نقطة تحوّل في مصير المنطقة. فهو من جهة يقول للأكراد في سورية والعراق أن الأميركيين والسعوديين و»الإسرائيليين» الذين يشجّعونهم على التصعيد نحو الانفصال لن يقدموا لهم شيئاً ساعة الصفر. ويقول للعرب والإيرانيين والأتراك، إن المواجهة سياسية وليست عرقية ولا قومية، وإن القيادة الحكيمة للسليمانية شريك في إعادة صياغة العلاقة بين مكوّنات شعوب المنطقة بطريقة تقوم على الاحترام المبتادل للخصوصيات، والعيش السلمي الواحد، وإحباط مشاريع الفتن والحروب الأهلية.

البرزاني ينتحر بعدما لعب ورقة حظه الأخيرة، بكامل الرصيد الكردي والإقليمي والدولي، وفقاً لمعادلة «يا قاتل يا مقتول»، وها هو يخرج مقتولاً، من دون أن ينجح بدفع المنطقة للاقتتال. فالمعادلة المطروحة اليوم أمام الأكراد كردية كردية وليست بين الاستقلال والتبعية، فقد منحوا مشروع البرزاني تفويضاً مفتوحاً للسير بدولة الانفصال وفشل بتوفير المقوّمات وتجمّد عند الخطوة الأولى وثبت خطأ حساباته وتحالفاته، ليكون الخيار المقابل الداعي للتعقل والذي يمثله تيار الطالباني بين الأكراد خشبة الخلاص الكردية بعقلانية وروح المسؤولية التي أبداها تجاه مستقبل ناسه وعلاقات الأكراد بجيرانهم، الذين عاشوا معهم آلاف السنين التي مضت وسيعيشون معهم آلاف السنين التي ستأتي.

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A negotiation to barter the referendum with sanctions تفاوض لمقايضة الاستفتاء بالعقوبات

A negotiation to barter the referendum with sanctions

أكتوبر 9, 2017

Written by Nasser Kandil,

All the available information from the scenes of the regional and the international relations that surround the project of the secession of Kurdistan ensures that the project was born dead, and that the stable convictions of the supports of the Kurdish leadership in the West in particular prove that the opportunities of success are nil, and that the ceiling of what can be done is the escalation to stop it by issuing a common international position that based on a bilateral; the unity of Iraq and the rights of the Kurds, through a negotiation that leads to an exit that face-saving those who got involved in the quest for secession in exchange of their smooth retreat of the sanctions which it seems that their continuation will drop all the gains achieved by the project of Kurdistan over the years.

The supporters of the secession were surprised at the size of harmony of the Turkish, Iranian, and Iraqi positions to the extent that some people described them with the ambush that was set for Al-Barazani to go in for the referendum and to fall in the trap through the standstill of Baghdad’s position throughout the period that separated between the declaration of the determination on the referendum, and the date of its holding. Baghdad did not show any vigor or determination, and there were not any indicators for Turkish- Iranian –Iraqi coordination as the size which appeared suddenly, after it was hidden for ten years at least, it appeared strongly contrary to all the expectations which depended on the apparent data, and which expected political warnings, mediations,  and admonition, they did not expect a decisive decision of suffocating blockade to the extent of threatening the state of secession by falling and maybe by the military invasion or at least extracting Kirkuk by force from it, along with Iraqi bordered line that links Iraq with Turkey and Iran, and besieges Kurdistan.

The supporters of the secession were surprised that the Russian position which supports the rights of Kurds considers that the unity of Iraq and the unity of Syria a red line for the stability in the region, and that the Turkish-Iranian understanding towards the state of secession constitutes a sufficient reason for the inclusion of Russia. It is the owner of a Russian- Iranian- Turkish- Syrian- Iraqi project that is achieved under the title of confronting the threat of the fragmentation of the region entities. Thus the understandings which the west  wants in Washington and the European capitals about Syria has become conditioned with the formula of the Turkish-Iranian understanding which is supported by Russia and which attracts Syria and Iraq. Its main condition is the fall of the state of secession.

The Europeans who sponsored historically and traditionally the Kurdish project in Iraq despite its political subordination to Washington and its distinctive relations with Israel and the Gulf have understood well the Syrian lesson. The goals on which Europe has drawn the foreign policy have changed. As the French President Emanuel Macron who called for a negotiation that preserves the unity of Iraq and the rights of the Kurds, and avoids the escalation said that the policies of spreading democracy and the human rights do not worth taking a risk of stability, because the generalization of the European values must not be at the expense of the security of Europe, the intension here surely is not the values but the colonial policies that are covered by these values. The war on Syria to overthrow the regime prove that the European cost was the dangerous population change through the flow of the displaced people, and the major security concern through the expansion and the rootedness of terrorism, in addition to the economic regression, the unemployment, and the recession. Those who concerned about the immigration of the Syrians will not take the risk of dismantling Turkey after Iraq and receiving tens of millions of the displaced people along with the chaos of the spread of terrorism.

The West which is preoccupied with the outcome of its long failed war on Syria cannot bear an adventure of ten years for another long failed war that dismantles Iraq and Turkey. The Gulf and Israel are incapable of providing the necessities for the continuation of igniting the war on Syria alone; they do not have what is needed to ignite other new wars. Thus the war of Syria seems to be the last war. It seems that the war of the Kurdish secession is weaker than to be born, but as a cold war of negotiation, in order to achieve the organized deterrence for hasty steps that lost the consideration of time and place.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

 

تفاوض لمقايضة الاستفتاء بالعقوبات

سبتمبر 30, 2017

ناصر قنديل

-تؤكد المعلومات المتوافرة كلّها من كواليس العلاقات الإقليمية والدولية المحيطة بمشروع انفصال كردستان أنّ المشروع قد ولد ميتاً، وأنّ القناعات الراسخة لدى المؤيدين للقيادة الكردية في الغرب خصوصاً، صارت بأنّ فرص النجاح باتت معدومة، وأنّ سقف ما يمكن هو الدخول على خط التصعيد لوقفه باستصدار موقف دولي جامع يقوم على ثنائية وحدة العراق وحقوق الأكراد، وتفاوض يحقق مخرجاً يحفظ ماء الوجه للذين تورّطوا بالسعي للانفصال مقابل تراجعهم السلس لقاء التراجع عن العقوبات التي يبدو أنّ مواصلتها سيسقط المكاسب كلّها التي حققها مشروع كردستان خلال سنوات طوال.

-فوجئ مؤيّدو الانفصال بحجم حدة وانسجام المواقف التركية والإيرانية والعراقية، لدرجة وصفها البعض بالكمين الذي نُصب للبرزاني للسير بالاستفتاء والوقوع في الفخ، عبر برودة موقف بغداد طوال الفترة الفاصلة بين إعلان العزم على الاستفتاء وموعد إجرائه، حيث لم تظهر بغداد أيّ حدة أو حزم، ولا ظهرت مؤشرات على تنسيق تركي إيراني عراقي بالحجم الذي ظهر فجأة. وهو وليد تحضير عمره شهور على الأقلّ بقي طيّ الكتمان حتى ظهر بقوة وزخم مخالفاً كلّ التوقعات المبنية على الظاهر من الأمور، والتي كانت تتوقع تحذيرات سياسية ووساطات وعتب، لكنها لم تتوقع قراراً حازماً بحصار خانق يصل حدّ تهديد دولة الانفصال بالسقوط، وربما بالاجتياح العسكري، أو على الأقلّ انتزاع كركوك بالقوة منها، ومعها شريط حدودي عراقي يربط العراق بتركيا وإيران ويسوّر كردستان.

-فوجئ مؤيّدو الانفصال بأنّ الموقف الروسي الداعم لحقوق الأكراد يعتبر وحدة العراق ووحدة سورية خطاً أحمر لصناعة الاستقرار في المنطقة، وبأنّ التفاهم التركي الإيراني تجاه دولة الانفصال يشكل سبباً كافياً لتنضمّ روسيا إليه، وهي صاحبة مشروع خماسية روسية إيرانية تركية سورية عراقية، وجدتها تتحقق تحت عنوان مواجهة خطر تفتيت كيانات المنطقة. وبالتالي صارت التفاهمات التي يريدها الغرب في واشنطن والعواصم الأوروبية حول سورية صارت حكماً مشروطة بصيغة التفاهم التركي الإيراني الذي تدعمه روسيا ويجذب حكماً سورية والعراق، وشرطه الأساس سقوط دولة الانفصال.

-ظهر الأوروبيون الذين رعوا تاريخياً وتقليدياً المشروع الكردي في العراق، رغم تبعيته السياسية لواشنطن وعلاقاته المميّزة بـ«إسرائيل» والخليج، وقد استوعبوا الدرس السوري جيداً. فالأهداف التي عملت أوروبا لرسم السياسة الخارجية على أساسها قد تغيّرت، كما قال الرئيس الفرنسي إيمانويل ماكرون الذي دعا لتفاوض يحفظ وحدة العراق وحقوق الأكراد ويتجنّب التصعيد، بأنّ سياسات نشر الديمقراطية وحقوق الإنسان، لا تستحقّ المغامرة بالاستقرار لأنّ تعميم القيم الأوروبية لا يجوز أن يتمّ على حساب أمن أوروبا، والقصد طبعاً ليس القيم بل السياسات الاستعمارية التي تغلّفها هذه القيم. وجاءت الحرب على سورية لإسقاط دولتها تقول إن الثمن الأوروبي هو تغيير سكاني خطير عبر تدفق موجات النازحين، وقلق أمني كبير عبر تمدّد وتجذر الإرهاب، عدا الركود الاقتصادي والبطالة والكساد، ومن أقلقته هجرة السوريين فلن يتحمّل المجازفة بتفكيك تركيا بعد العراق وتلقي عشرات ملايين النازحين ومعهم فوضى انتشار الإرهاب.

-الغرب المنهك بحاصل حربه الطويلة والفاشلة على سورية، لا يستطيع تحمل مغامرة عشر سنوات لحرب طويلة فاشلة أخرى تفكّك العراق وتركيا، والخليج و«إسرائيل» العاجزتان عن توفير مقومات السير بتوفير مستزمات وقود اشتعال الحرب في سورية وحدهما، لا تملكان بالتأكيد ما يلزم لإشعال حروب جديدة، لتبدو حرب سورية آخر الحروب، وتبدو حرب الانفصال الكردية أضعف من أن تولد، إلا كحرب تفاوض على البارد، بما يحقق الترادع المنظم لخطوات متسرّعة لرؤوس حامية أخطأت الحساب في المكان والزمان.

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The Iraqi Kurdistan is neither the Western Sahara nor the Southern of Sudan كردستان العراق ليست الصحراء الغربية ولا جنوب السودان

The Iraqi Kurdistan is neither the Western Sahara nor the Southern of Sudan

أكتوبر 8, 2017

Written by Nasser Kandil,

Despite the interconnectedness which is made by many people between the movements of the secession and the division of the region entities, and the colonial projects which Israel is not far from, and despite the reverse linkage which other people make between these movements and the historical aspirations of the nations which suffered historically from the persecution due to their identity, and looked for a suitable timing for independence, the experiences which were witnessed by the entities which were created by the external projects that encourage fragmentation, and the local aspirations for the dream of independence and the formation of a state do not seem livable or successful experiences, whether regarding what it seemed at the moment of birth driven by a national anti-western option as the experience of the declaration of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic in the Western Sahara of Morocco, or what was publicly depended on the coordination and the cooperation with Israel as the southern of Sudan, or  which its experience was suffered from the lack of resources and population as the Western Sahara, or whose its experience was full of population capacities and natural wealth as the Southern of Sudan.

Those who look at the map of the region will see in its south the southern of Sudan and in its west the Western Sahara, in its north-east the Iraqi Kurdistan and will see the occupied Palestine where the occupation entity is in the middle, and will find that there is a link between the projects on the sides and the project which is in the middle, thus cannot ignore the image of the encircling of the Arab countries with three states that have seceded from their surrounding and link them with one virtual plan. The question which comes immediately into the mind is about the contradiction of the political identities of their governments. Despite the separatist aspect of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic, it did not turn into an entity that is affiliated to the West or has any relationship with Israel, but it is still has a good relationship with Algeria and Mauritania, the positions of the two countries are known through their supporting the Palestinian cause, the sticking to the independence from the West, and resisting its projects and its wars in the region, while the Southern of Sudan is boasting of its distinctive relation with Israel, and the Kurdish leaderships which led the secession movement have historical relations with Israel but they do not boast of it publicly as the southern of Sudan.

The course of the experiences of the Western Sahara and the Southern of Sudan declines politically, economically, and morally during the years that followed the declaration of independence. The Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic has lost more than three-quarters of the diplomatic recognition which it knew during the declaration, it lived harsh socio – economic conditions despite its limited population, and it does not seem that it is capable of going on so long in the steadfastness. While despite the mineral and oil resources of  the Republic of the Southern of Sudan it got involved in conflicts, wars, and coups, so the life of its people was so bad, furthermore, it was classified by the United Nations among the worst countries concerning poverty, health, education ,and the human rights, which means that the size of support for its formation did not grant it the feature of the strategic project for the major countries, however, it puts the support of the secession in the field of the tactic political employment, and it does not grant the other secession projects which the current project of Kurdistan forms an encouraging example, the conditions to last or the actual support, despite all the analyses about its representation as a base for the American and Israeli positioning on the borders of Iran. So it seems a dream rather than a realistic verifiable opportunity.

Despite the similarities between the situation of Iraqi Kurdistan and the Southern of Sudan, the situation of the Iraqi Kurdistan is more difficult and worse than the southern of Sudan, and surely more difficult and worse than the Western Sahara implicitly. The radical difference between Kurdistan and the two experiences of the Western Sahara and the southern of Sudan is the size of readiness to recognize the new state, and the formation of commercial and diplomatic relationships with it in general, and its relationship with the neighboring countries, their position, and the degree of their tension against the formation of the state of secession in particular, in addition to the status of these countries, their influence, and the deterrent reaction which stems from their positions regarding the opportunities of the openness to the state of secession. Sudan as the first concerned country along with the Organization of African Unity as a regional concerned party, and supported by the United Nations were the forefront welcoming parties of the Southern state of secession, while Mauritanian and Algeria which are the closest neighboring countries to the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic were the main supporters of the establishment of the state of secession supported by the Organization of the African Unity as a regional concerned party, and more than eighty countries have taken the lead in recognizing immediately the emerging state. While in the situation of Kurdistan we are in front of closed borders of four important, effective, active, sensitive countries namely Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran, they object strongly the formation of the state of separation, knowing that there is no regional linkage or international framework that will dare to deal with the state of secession, since the size of the siege imposed by the neighboring countries is suffocated and existential towards its entity.

The Kurdish separatist movement comes in a context that does not foreshadow of success on one hand, and it will be accompanied by conditions and data more severe than its previous ones, so this makes it mere a project of political suicide.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

 

خسائرُ محقَّقة بأرباحٍ وهمية

كردستان العراق ليست الصحراء الغربية ولا جنوب السودان

سبتمبر 27, 2017

ناصر قنديل

– ربما يكون الاستفتاء على انفصال كردستان كخطوة نحو ولادة كيان جديد في المنطقة، كوعدٍ من زلماي زادة السفير الأميركي السابق في العراق الذي وضع الدستور يشبه وعد بلفور قبل مئة عام تماماً، وبدعم «إسرائيلي» غير مستور، مصدرَ قلق لكلّ حريص على استقرار المنطقة وحرية شعوبها وكلِّ من يريد لانتصارات محور المقاومة في سورية والعراق ومعادلات القوة الجديدة التي تمثل روسيا عنوانها دولياً أن تأخذ مداها في رسم معادلات دولية وإقليمية جديدة.

– ما يجب التنبّه إليه هنا هو أنّ الأكراد ليسوا كالمستوطنين الصهاينة، فهم مكوّن أصيل بين شعوب المنطقة، وهذا بقدر ما يستدعي لغة الأخوة مع الشعب الكردي، يستدعي الانتباه إلى أنّ مغامرة مسعود البرزاني مهما كانت قادرة على تحريك العواطف، فهي عندما تتسبّب بكارثة ستنتج معادلة كردية جديدة تُطيح البرزاني. فالقضية هنا لا تشبه ما قاله «الإسرائيليون» للبرزاني افعل ما فعله بن غوريون، حيث مقامرته تضع مصير مستوطنيه بين الفوز بالكيان أو الموت، وقبل الاستفتاء يقوم صراع سياسي كردي كردي سيكبر وتتسع فجواته وشقوقه، كلما تبيّنت نتائج الكارثة التي جلبها البرزاني على الأكراد، وسيكون أول برلمان كردي مناسبة لظهور هذه التكتلات وتحوّل صراعاتها لمصدر تغيير في وجهة الأكراد سياسياً.

– بعقل بارد يمكن لمحور المقاومة التعامل مع هذا الحدث واعتماد السياسات التي تشتغل على الداخل الكردي بعناية، وفي مقدّمتها الإجراءات القانونية والاقتصادية. ويكفي الحكومة العراقية حسم كركوك ومنع السيطرة عليها لتتمكّن من الانتظار ما لا يملك البرزاني القدرة على دعوة الأكراد للانتظار مثلها، وبعقل بارد سيكون بمستطاع محور المقاومة احتساب معادلة ما يمكن أن يقدّمه الأميركيون والسعوديون و»الإسرائيليون» لمشروع الانفصال ليكون الحاصل صفراً.

الأميركي بين معادلات صعبة. فالإعلان عن دعم الحكم الانفصالي سيعني العداء مع حكومتي بغداد وأنقرة فوراً، والبقاء بلغة التنديد والتحذير لكردستان سيجلب الإحباط لجمهور كردي وعده البرزاني بأنّ الأمر الواقع سيفرض نفسه، وأنّ الأميركيين سيعاجلون لتبني القرار الكردي، والمال السعودي باعتباره الشيء الوحيد الذي يمكن للسعوديين تقديمه، لا يملك طريقاً للوصول إلا عبر بغداد أو أنقرة، والحسابات المصرفية والفروع البنكية دخلت مرحلة الرقابة والتجميد، أما «إسرائيل» فما تريده هو أن يفرض الأكراد بعذاباتهم وتضحياتهم وجود كيان يُعادي بغداد وطهران ويقع على حدود مؤثرة، لتستثمره «إسرائيل» بلا أكلاف. وبالتالي فهي لا تملك أن تقدّم شيئاً سوى التشجيع على الانتحار بكلام وأوهام.

تركيا لا تملك خيارات للمناورة وهوامش للحركة، فقضيتها وجودية مع الكيان الكردي، وربع سكان تركيا من الأكراد وهم أكبر تجمع كردي في المنطقة، وسيكون تصرف أنقرة مع كردستان العراق نموذجاً تقدّمه أنقرة لما سيكون عليه تصرفها مع مشروع انفصالهم، والسباق بين الحكومة التركية والقيادات الكردية في تركيا على معادلة ما بعد انفصال كردستان العراق فإذا نجح أكراد العراق بتجربتهم سيكون اليوم التالي في تركيا مواجهة خطر الانفصال الكردي، وإذا فشلت التجربة الكردية في العراق، فسيكون اليوم الثاني في تركيا صيغاً حوارية لمعادلة علاقة جديدة، لذلك تتصدّر تركيا المواجهة، ولذلك سيكون مصير التجربة قضية وجود لتركيا، بينما تملك تركيا كلّ شرايين الحياة لكردستان، بعدما كانا الشريكين في الحلف الذي تقوده واشنطن ضدّ إيران وسورية والعراق، وجاء أوان الفراق. فأصاب البرزاني بوضع بيضه كله في السلة التركية ما أصاب «الإسرائيليين» يوم وضعوا كلّ منشآتهم الحيوية على الحدود مع لبنان باعتباره «الجار» الأقلّ خطراً، وها هم يعيشون القلق منه اليوم أكثر من أيّ حدود أخرى.

الأهمّ الذي أصاب الأميركيين و»الإسرائيليين» والسعوديين، هو أنّ الاستقطاب الجديد الذي خلقته الأزمة الكردية، تكفل بإنهاء خطوط الفتنة المذهبية في المنطقة، فتوحّدت جهود سنة وشيعة العراق لحفظ وحدة بلدهم، وليس لديهم المجال لترف التفرقة، وتوحّدت بمصالح وجودية عليا الدولتان الأهمّ في الإقليم، أكبر دولة شيعية وأكبر دولة سنية، إيران وتركيا. وهما تتصدّران خط الاشتباك مع ولادة الكيان الجديد، وتملكان داخل المجتمع الكردي العراقي الكثير من الخيوط والخطوط. وهذا تحوّل هائل الأهمية وعظيم التأثير في معادلات المنطقة وإسقاط سياسات التخريب والعبث بنسيجها الاجتماعي، ليصحّ القول في هذا الزلزال، ربّ ضارة نافعة، خصوصاً أنّ أميركا التي تراهن عليه لشراء الوقت لا تستثمر على خطة هجوم وقد فقدت قوة الدفع اللازمة للتقدّم، بل كقتال تراجعي ومثلها «إسرائيل»، والتاريخ يقول إنّ مناورات المهزوم تؤخّر هزيمته، لكنها لا تحوّلها نصراً.

– وحده غباء وجشع القيادة الكردية يفسّر قبولها لعب هذه المقامرة.

كتب ناصر قنديل

2016-04-18

داعش للصخب والدولة لكردستان

– ليس جديدا التأشير على حجم الصخب الذي أحدثه ويحدثه تحرك داعش

– داعش يتشبه بإسرائيل بكسر المعادلات ويلقى دعمها الخفي لكن ليس إسرائيل ثانية

– دولة الخلافة فيل في مخزن الخزف يكسر كل شيئ ثم يخرجونه

– لا مصلحة لأحد بتحويل ساحل المتوسط لسيرك للفيلة

– كائن مثل داعش لا يمكن تحمله في تورا بورا فكيف ببوابة أوروبا والخليج ؟

–  المتزامن الوحيد مع ولادة داعش الذي يتسم بالجدية هو ولادة كردستان المستقلة عدا عن الفرصة التي يوفرها التفاهم على مواجهته من تبرير لقاء وتحالف الخصوم الذين بلغت  بينهم المواجهة حد إحراق السفن وكسر الجسور دون ان يبدو أحدهم مهزوما

– خطوات إنفصال كردستان جدية وثابتة و مدروسة

– إعلان نتنياهو دعم دولة كردية مستقلة جدي ومدروس أيضا

– رفض إيران سياسي وليس وجودي فالدولة الكردية لا تهدد بتقسيمها وكذلك سوريا فالجاليات الكردية فيهما بفعل النزوح وحصلت على حقوق المواطنة بينما المشكلة في تركيا وجودية فهل تقلع تركيا أوشاكها بيديها أم أن إمبراطورية بني عثمان باتت عبئا على حلفائها ؟

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‘Breakup of Iraq serves interests of US, israel’

‘Breakup of Iraq serves interests of US, Israel’

Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei says the United States and Israel benefit from the recent referendum in Iraq’s Kurdistan region, stressing that Washington and some of its allies seek to create a new Israel. The Leader made the remarks in a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Tehran on Wednesday. Ayatollah Khamenei stressed that holding the Kurdish vote in Iraq was an act of betrayal against the region and posed a threat to the future of the Middle East, warning about the long-term repercussions of the vote for Iraq’s neighbors.

Press TV has talked to Richard Becker, a member of the ANSWER Coalition, as well as Michael Lane Founder, member of the American Institute for Foreign Policy, to discuss the issue.

Becker believes it has been US policy for a very long time to break up Iraq, citing the 2003 invasion of the country which led to the creation of the semi-autonomous Kurdish region.

“The United States policy really relied upon one of pitting, of exacerbating the differences between groups which have been able to live together to a large degree- I mean it is not that there were no problems- but to exacerbate those differences into armed conflicts, very violent and vicious armed conflicts between different parts of the population and in effect did break up Iraq,” he stated.

The analyst also noted the policies of Washington are leading to the establishment of the so-called greater Israel state in the Middle East, adding that Tel Aviv itself is encouraging “divisive forces” in the region which can help break up regional countries.

Therefore, he said, Israel has developed relationships with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in order to pursue its policy of making alliances against the Muslim nation as a whole which opposes its creation as “a colonial implantation” in the region.

On September 25, the Kurdistan Regional Government held the non-binding referendum on secession from Iraq in defiance of stiff opposition from the central government in Baghdad and much of the international community. Kurdish officials said over 90 percent of voters said ‘Yes’ to separation from Iraq.

Political observers have warned that KRG’s referendum scenario is in line with Israel’s policy of dividing the regional Muslim states.

Becker further predicted that if Iran, Turkey and Iraq “completely shut off economically” the Kurdish region, it could create another big crisis in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, Michael Lane, the other panelist on the program, opined that the independence referendum was not surprising given their long-held aspiration for a homeland of their own.

He also asserted that there are a lot of “influential foreign policy players” who think that partitioning the Middle East is a correct solution.

However, he warned, while the balkanization policy may solve a number of “identifiable problems,” it will create a new set of issues.

Lane went on to say that there is a great deal of pressure from people who are “divided tribally, ethnically and religiously” in the Middle East to establish their own states.

How Washington Found Itself in Bed with ISIS

How Washington Found Itself in Bed with ISIS

345211222It is now crystal clear that the unexpected counterattack that ISIS militants launched near the Deir ez-Zor and Palmyra that forced Russia’s air group deployed in Syria to take urgent measures to repel the horde of radicals that have almost overrun the positions occupied by Syrian army forces was staged by the US and its Kurdish SDF allies along with a number of local Sunni tribes. As for the death of the Russian General Valery Asapov that was struck dead by a mortal shell at his C2 post, it’s curious that the shot that murdered Russia’s high-profile officer was made with a deadly precision. There’s no chance that one could land such a shot without access to satellite and air photos. It’s hardly a secret that ISIS has no access to this level of reconnaissance assets, but Washington does.

Moreover, a detachment up to 6.000 men strong couldn’t approach Deir ez-Zor from the southeast unnoticed, thus getting an opportunity both Sukhny, Palmyra and Al-Qaryatayn. Such a force would be inevitably detected by US-coalition aircraft and satellites. But Washington couldn’t care less about transferring this information to the Russian military command, since the United States was pursuing several goals at once by choosing this course of action:

  • to ensure that pro-US Kurds forces would be able to occupy vast oil fields near Deir ez-Zor;
  • to disrupt the crossing of Syrian army troops to the left bank of the Euphrates via a pontoon bridge built by Russian military engineers;
  • to undermine the prestige of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and the forces he commands on the eve of the 2-year anniversary of the arrival of the Russian air group to Syria.

However, Washington hasn’t simply assisted ISIS by concealing reports about the approach of a large militant force to Deir Ez-Zor, but it has also struck a deal with Sunni tribes that the Islamist horde will cross their lands unreported and unopposed.

Therefore, Damascus had to urgently strip a sections of the front Idlib-Khama off its best forces to rapidly organize defense along the strategic road Palmyra – Deir ez-Zor. On the night of September 30, a total of 800 men and 50 tanks of the Syrian battle-seasoned elite force Tigers arrived to Palmyra. Apparently, the command of the Syrian Armed Forces perceived the threat of a militant assault of the city as inevitable. The Islamic State has already released a report on its website that its radicals have managed to destroy two Syria’s military jets stationed at the T-4 base. A brief look at the map of Syria can tell you that the above mentioned airbase is to be found in the city of Tadmur that is only a couple of miles away from Palmyra. That also means that jihadists are approaching Palmyra from the west. Under these circumstances, the Syrian government will have little choice but to strip other fronts of the most battle-capable units which will to defend Palmyra, which will reduce its liberation efforts taken across the country. Actually, this was the very goal ISIS was pursuing. Moreover, all of the US-coalition aircraft have ceased patrols over the Euphrates river, which means that ISIS has the ability to launch offensives in this area as well. By scattering their forces across a narrow 60-miles long front radical militants have considerably militants reduced the effectiveness of the air strikes carried out by both Syrian and Russian military jets, especially in a situation where the Russian air corps has been heavily employed near the Idlib area.

Mere days after the launch of an ISIS offensive the Kurds started seizing oil fields along the left bank of the Euphrates river. It was reported that they occupied the Jafra oil field, heading to the largest oil field in Syria – al-Omar. While the US demonstrates its utter lack of respect towards the Syrians and Russian “partners” in the fight against terrorism by frozing all military flights across the right bank the Euphrates river for at least a week, granting ISIS a massive area of operations, while the left is occupied by SDF forces, Damascus had to abandon its plan of regaining its control over the reach oil fields, focusing its efforts on a way more complex goal tiresome and bloody task of eliminating ISIS forces attacking the Mayadin.

Simultaneously, Turkey started occupying certain parts of Syria’s Idlib province. Ankara pursuits the same old goal – creation of a buffer control that would separate Kurdish enclaves in Syria from the Turkish sovereign lands. Erdogan couldn’t care less about Washington’s plans to balkanize Syria, but at the same time he has no intention to discuss the buffer zone that Turkish armed forces are now creating.

In the meantime, in the south of the Syrian Arab Republic, ISIS keeps attacking Syrian positions in a series of hit and run engagements For instance a small gang of a 100 militants would capture the town of al-Qaryatain west of Palmyra three times over the period of just two days. During their first assault they would capture a total of 20 avid supporters of the Syrian government to execute them hours later. If one is to take into account the fact that it’s a remote city that is far away from any major engagements that are taking place on the ground, while the group operating in the area represents one the reactivated sleeper cell of ISIS, one can start to comprehend how difficult its for Damascus to coordinate its forces wisely. In just two days of ongoing skirmishes Syria lost more that 500 of its brave sons. At the same time, Syria’s foreign allies like Hezbollah, Afghan volunteers and Shia soldiers of the Army of Mahdi are suffering equally serious losses. There’s almost no reports coming from Al-Qaryatayn, since Syrian armed forces are opposed by far the most elite troops within ISIS ranks – Amniyat al- Kharji. It’s known that this task force is being deployed extremely rarely and always when there’s an imporant mission an hand. So, in such a deadly face-off no side is eager to give any clues to the enemy.

It won’t be an exaggeration to state that the situation remains extremely complicated in Deir ez-Zor. Clashes occur both in the outskirts and within the city, but ISIS militants are almost exclusively attacking the positions where Russian military advisors can be found. The plan of action that the Islamic State has is pretty clear now, the terrorist force will take every effort to capture Palmyra in an attempt to relieve out of its groups that Syrian army had previously surrounded. In a difficult situation that Russia, Iran and Syria found themselves due Washington’s cunning plan, ISIS militants are clearly counting on their luck. Theoretically, Damascus can return the situation under its control if it manages to stall the terrorist offensive in the foreseeable future. But in order to achieve this goal, Damascus has to manage whatever forces it has wisely.

Military experts argue that the Kurds will reach the Khabur River and stop there to take a better look at what the Syrian military will be able to achieve on the right bank of the Euphrates.

Apparently, they are waiting for when the government forces to head for Mayadin. After all, Washington has made it pretty clear for the Kurds that it doesn’t simply want them to occupy oil fields, but also prevent Damascus from establishing control of the Syrian-Iraqi border and block the root along which Iran could send troops and equipment to Syria. This is by far the most important goal in Syria today from Washington’s point of view. Iranian Foreign Mohammad Javad Zarif wasn’t particularly picky with words when he stated that Washington is eager to cooperate with any force, including ISIS, in a bid to prevent the Syrian army from securing the border with Iraq, which would create a land supply channel from Iran to Syria.

The can be hardly any difference of opinions about what the US is trying to do in Syria. In fact, it’s trying to stab its partners in the fight against terrorism in the back simply because it somehow fits Washington’s twisted interests. Western attempts to get Moscow drawn even deeper in the Syrian war even is a part of the ongoing attempts to undermine Russia’s economic situation on the eve of the presidential elections.

Alexander Orlov, Political Scientist and Expert Orientalist, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook” 
https://journal-neo.org/2017/10/03/how-washington-found-itself-in-bed-with-isis/

US & israel’s plan B to destabilise Middle East, using Kurds instead of ISIS

US & Israel back to plot to carve-up region after ‘failure of ISIS project’ – Hezbollah leader

US & Israel back to plot to carve-up region after ‘failure of ISIS project’ – Hezbollah leader

Trump’s Support for ISIS Terrorists Angers Readers.

Trump’s Support for ISIS Angers Readers.

By Eric Zuesse,

A September 26th news-report at the most reliable news-site that specializes on the war in Syria, Almasdar News, headlined “Breaking video: ISIS fighter admits that ISIS is forbidden to attack Kurdish forces in Deir Ezzor”, and Andrew Illingworth reported from Lebanon, that, “A video has just been released on social media showing the interview of an ISIS fighter from Deir Ezzor [Syria’s oil-producing region] who admits that the terrorist group’s forces in the region are forbidden by their commanders from attacking US-backed, Kurdish-led militias.”

The report ends:

“Mohammed [the disenchanted ISIS jihadist] finishes the interview by saying that he knows for a fact that the US is attempting to establish an alliance between Kurdish forces and ISIS in Deir Ezzor province in order to undermine government-led military efforts to liberate the region.”

Reader-comments thus far have been furious, mostly against the U.S. Government, which now is under President Donald Trump, who had promised to end, instead of to continue, his predecessor, Barack Obama’s, war to overthrow and to replace Syria’s Government.
Some of the reader-comments are instead against Israel, because Israel is the country that has for the longest time been publicly known to want to overthrow Syria’s Government. However, ever since 1949, the U.S. Government has been unsuccessfully trying to overthrow Syria’s Government but hiding the fact from the public.. Other comments claim that the U.S. now is like the Soviet Union’s Government was: e.g., “USA doing today what Soviet Union used to sometimes do: establishing puppet governments and claiming they represent ‘the people’. Oh, just by chance they all are pushing US (Israel) geopolitical interest.” 

Trump isn’t yet personally named by any of the reader-comments, but the sheer frustration shown with his continuing Obama’s policies in Syria is clear. 

The longer that Trump continues to do this, the more that America’s war against Syria will become Trump’s war, and the less it will remain merely Obama’s.

The issue of whether or not the person who is shown in that video is staged, is not addressed in any of the reader-comments thus far, perhaps because Almasdar News has developed a reputation for the honesty of its reporting, and for its careful vetting of sources that it relies upon. If this video is a fake (a staged acted statement instead of an authentic statement by a disenchanted ISIS jihadist who is furious at ISIS’s cooperation with U.S.-backed Kurds who are protecting “the Conoco Gas Fields”), then it would be the first time that a staged fake has appeared at Almasdar as being anything authentic, instead of as being exposed there as being a fake. However, the possibility does exist that it could be a fake.

However, the reason why this video is not surprising to anyone who knows the background of America’s war to overthrow Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad, is that under Barack Obama, the U.S. was relying very heavily upon Al Qaeda in Syria as the trainers and to lead the other jihadist factions who have been fighting to overthrow and replace Assad.
Furthermore, there have been other indications than merely this video, that under U.S. President Donald Trump, the U.S. has cut back its support for Al Qaeda there, and come to rely instead increasingly upon ISIS, even while helping Kurdish forces to defeat ISIS and also to defeat Assad’s Government. For example, on June 12th, Chris Tomson in Damascus reported that “Al-Masdar News has obtained jaw-dropping footage from northern Syria suggesting the US-led coalition has allowed hundreds of ISIS vehicles to leave Raqqa city for areas controlled by the Syrian Arab Army (SAA)” (the Syrian Government’s army, under Assad — in other words: that Trump was helping ISIS to overthrow Assad).

However, U.S. major ‘news’media continue to allege that the U.S.-backed Kurdish forces, the “Syrian Democratic Forces” or SDF, are throwing ISIS out of that area, instead of working with ISIS there to block Syria’s Government from retaking control of that major gas-producing facility — throwing out ISIS, instead of throwing out the Syrian Government.

For example, on September 25th, the Wall Street Journal bannered “U.S.-Backed Forces Seize Syrian Gas Plant From Islamic State” and reported that, “U.S.-backed forces said Sunday they were advancing through eastern Syria after seizing a gas plant there from Islamic State, striking a blow to the terror group’s dwindling finances, which rely heavily on its control of Syria’s oil and gas fields. … ConocoPhillips has had no affiliation with the facility since it was turned over to the Syrian Gas Company in 2005. Its loss is another blow to Islamic State’s already-dwindling revenue sources.” The conflict is presented in U.S. ‘news’media as being SDF versus ISIS, instead of U.S. versus Syria. Also on September 25th, the AP bannered “US-backed SDF says it took Syria’s largest gas field from ISIS” and reported that, “U.S.-backed Syrian fighters captured Saturday the country’s largest gas field from the Islamic State group in an eastern province that borders Iraq as they race with government forces to capture the energy-rich region.”

So: even American ‘news’-reports are acknowledging that the Trump Administration is seeking to break up Syria, though not acknowledging that ISIS is cooperating with SDF toward this goal.

Furthermore, the Wall Street Journal’s report is implicitly acknowledging that the U.S.-backed SDF is focused more on overthrowing the Government, or else breaking up Syria into ethnic enclaves (as the U.S. Government, and Israel, have long wanted), by reporting that, “‘Our goal is to prevent the regime from taking the areas of oil which will enable it to regain control of the country like it was before’ the start of the 2011 anti-government uprising, Delsos Derrik, an SDF commander, said.” Even the WSJ is implicitly acknowledging that Trump continues Obama’s primary goal in Syria to be conquest of Syria, instead of any authentic effort against jihadists such as Al Qaeda or ISIS there. Even the WSJ is implicitly accepting that Trump has been lying.

The U.S. ’news’media have an extremely poor track-record regarding honesty, and certainly not as good a track-record as does Almasdar News. Moreover, no evidence has as yet been published which would indicate this video to be staged and acted, instead of authentic as it is represented.

Consequently: Trump is continuing Obama’s policy regarding Syria, and has been lying to deny it. But even the readers at Almasdar News haven’t yet quite absorbed this apparent fact, and are instead blaming amorphous and more generalized entities, such as “the Zio/Nazi US invasion forces.”

President Trump is being given unimpeded approval to continue President Obama’s obsession to overthrow and replace Syria’s Government or else at least to break it up enough so that U.S. companies will be able to build pipelines through Syria to carry into the European Union the oil and gas of America’s allied fundamentalist Sunni Arab royal families, such as of Saudia Arabia and UAE, and thus replace Russia’s largest export market for its oil and gas, the European Union.
It’s a fight between the U.S. and Russia, for market-share of oil and gas being sold to the EU. The U.S. wants to grab enough of Syria so as to — in partnership with its royal Arab friends — grab that EU market-share, away from Russia. That’s what this war is all about. And the Kurds have become America’s foot-soldiers in the region, to make this happen..
The U.S. is no longer relying upon Al Qaeda, as under Obama, nor ISIS (except temporarily, under Trump), but instead upon Kurds.

Investigative historian Eric Zuesse is the author, most recently, of  They’re Not Even Close: The Democratic vs. Republican Economic Records, 1910-2010, and of  CHRIST’S VENTRILOQUISTS: The Event that Created Christianity.

This article was originally published by Strategic Culture Foundation.

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