Moscow ‘Won’t Sacrifice Sino-Russian Alliance’ for Potential U.S.-Russian Thaw

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Regardless of Washington’s purported foreign policy shift toward Moscow under President-elect Donald Trump, Russia won’t change its geostrategic imperatives and will continue to maintain close political and economic relations with China and Iran, Russian online newspaper Vzglyad notes.

The strategic alliance of Moscow and Beijing, which took its final shape in 2012-2014, is based on common interests and goals; one of its aims is to create a new global order that will eventually replace the so-called “Pax Americana,” Russian online newpaper Vzglyad says.

Commenting on the possible consequences of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, Petr Akopov of Vzglyad posed the question whether there are any preconditions for a progressive Russo-American rapprochement.

According to Akopov, even if Trump reaches an agreement with Russia on a joint military operation against Daesh (ISIS/ISIL) in Syria, de-escalates tensions over Ukraine (providing guarantees that the latter would not join NATO), lifts some of the sanctions on Moscow and allows Europe to restore its ties with Russia, there will still be a number of geopolitical contradictions between Moscow and Washington.

The journalist calls attention to the fact that Trump’s victory does not mean that the United States will head toward isolationism.

However, it is possible that Washington’s foreign policy doctrine will undergo some changes which could lead to the re-formatting of NATO, accelerating the “circulation of elites” in Europe and provoking the transformation of the EU.

“In general, it is in Trump’s style to propose a ‘big deal’ to Moscow in order to reach a comprehensive agreement on a global scale. While under Barack Obama the U.S. offered China to create a ‘big two’ to solve the global issues together, Trump could now try to make a similar offer (albeit informally) to Russia,” Akopov assumes.

“However, China had not bought into it and likewise Russia won’t change its foreign strategy because of the US’s foreign policy shift,” he deems.

Indeed, as Russian military experts Vasily Kashin suggested in his interview with Sputnik, the US is likely to switch its focus from Eastern Europe and the Middle East to Asia-Pacific.

According to the military expert, Washington under Trump will seek to strike a mutually acceptable compromise with Russia; after having its hands untied the US will increase its pressure on China, America’s major economic and political rival.

“Imagine that Trump starts a trade war with Beijing, as he promised, while continuing to conduct the policy of military containment toward China… In the eyes of Beijing these actions coupled with Washington’s activity in the South China Sea, the Korean peninsula, Japan and Taiwan would look like an ‘offensive’ [against China]. Under these circumstances it is unlikely that Russia would remain a neutral and passive observer,” Akopov writes.

Iran may become yet another apple of discord between Moscow and Washington, he continues.

While it is obvious that Trump won’t tear up the Iran nuclear deal, Washington’s potential attempts to exert further pressure on Tehran would be negatively perceived by both Moscow and Beijing, the journalist suggests.

“Russia and China need Iran as their strategic partner, in half a year Tehran will join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO),” the journalist reminds, adding that Moscow and Beijing will not leave their ally in the lurch.

According to Vzglayd’s commentator, Trump’s geopolitical plans won’t affect Russia’s major foreign policy imperatives.

The journalist highlights that Moscow and Beijing are taking efforts to create a multi-polar world based on the principles of equality and mutual respect, where the United States will be just one of the centers of power.

The opinion piece published in Vzglyad echoes the People’s Daily, China’s leading media outlet, recent report.

“The closeness between China and Russia is determined by several factors, formed over a long period of time; it brings stable strategic benefits to both countries,” the People’s Daily said Wednesday. 

“We believe that the leaders of both countries [Russia and China] as well as their diplomatic elite would protect the status quo established jointly by China and Russia,” the media wrote adding that “Russia will not sacrifice the Sino-Russian relationship for the development of Russian-American relations.”

In light of this the potential US-Russian thaw will by no means harm China’s interests, according to the Chinese media outlet.

russian-president-vladimir-putin-chinese-president-xi-jinping-iranian-president-hassan-rouhani-670x1000


SOURCES:
SputnikNews
Submitted by SyrianPatriot, Lone Bear, Cem Ertür 
War Press Info Network at :
https://syrianfreepress.wordpress.com/2016/11/21/sino-russian-alliance/
~

In the time of the major accelerated changes في زمن التحولات الكبرى المتسارعة

The war on Syria is the war of twenty-first century; from its womb the new international and new regional systems will be born.

نوفمبر 21, 2016

Written by Nasser Kandil,

It is easy for the followers of this column for nearly three years to see a dominant graphic line in the readings which provide the readers with the ongoing events in the world, the region, and Lebanon, and which form political intellectual background in approaching the variables, the developments, and the center of the principles on which this background based on and stems from. America which we knew is no longer exist; it has changed to the extent of coping with an international role less important but more inclined to settlements, after the running out of its social and human capacity for waging wars. Israel does not differ from America in this respect, but only regarding the state of denial which occupies the minds of its leaders. Saudi Arabia is as Israel and as the rest of the allies in Turkey, France, and Britain. The war on Syria is the war of twenty-first century; from its womb the new international and new regional systems will be born. Russia along with China will be the first international player in the Middle East at least. Iran will be the greatest country in the region, while the recommendations of the US Baker-Hamilton Committee which include the Democratic and the Republican parties to cope with the variables are followed without announcement. They are the background of the understanding with Russia and the understanding on the nuclear program with Iran, as well as in somewhere it is the background for the arrival of the Republican Donald Trump and his extremist team to presidency, contrary to what he would do totally from the regression of America from the wars to the inside.

The rhythm of reading events in this column  is in harmony with the expectations, which some of them are Russian military reposition on the Mediterranean and some of them signing the understanding on the Iranian nuclear program and the exclusion of the choice of the US direct military involvement in the war of Syria, as well as the inevitability of the birth of a Yemeni understanding that ends the war in accordance to the demands of Al Houthis of a unified government, and considering the Russian American understanding vivid in Syria even with suspension till the resolution in Aleppo, moreover the inevitability of the coming of the Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri to meet the presidential choice of Hezbollah in Lebanon which is represented by the General Michael Aoun. All these expectations are ruled by a specific time ceiling that rules the American movement, the steps are being accelerated whenever it becomes closer, it is the date of the departure of the last US soldier from Afghanistan. It is the date which was scheduled at the end of 2014 but was extended till the end of the mandate of the US President Barack Obama in the middle of January 2017. This calendar has been carried out successively according to this date, the closer this deadline becomes the steps will seem dramatic towards the endings.

Resolving the situation in Aleppo and a political solution in Yemen will ensure the announced process in the US Russian understanding in the war on ISIS and Al Nusra, and will justify the Saudi reposition to negotiate with Iran after it appeared in Lebanon and appears in Yemen that the understanding through meditation is possible towards the starting of the mandate of the new US President in preparation to a summit that includes him with the Russian President who returns to a new term to draw the maps of the international cooperation, where Syria under  the leadership of President Bashar Al-Assad is a pillar in the equations of the new Middle East and Hezbollah is a major regional power, and where it was impossible according to the maps and the US coping with the facts the arrival of Hillary Clinton. We stayed offering to the readers a wide window on the so-called the surprise of the arrival of Donald Trump to the US Presidency, despite the flow of expectations and the reverse polls.

The next few days will be critical in all hot issues, sixty days versus sixty months, a new event every day. Lebanon which competed the variables through an insurance policy that is similar to the birth of the government of Tammam Salam through sudden change of the Prime Minister Saad Al-Haririr expresses the direction of the coming wind, while what is going on there and what is going on in Yemen and what will happen in Syria are the items of the Russian US understanding which are carried out successively, as the US Russian understanding and the understanding on the Iranian nuclear program are the items of Baker-Hamilton document which are implemented consecutively.

The Lebanese people will do well if they make use rapidly of the background of the settlements through resolving the terrorism with Russian American support, and if they rush to a modern election law and a collective government before and after it, In this case they will prove the political maturity.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

في زمن التحولات الكبرى المتسارعة

ناصر قنديل
– يسهل على متابعي هذه الزاوية منذ قرابة ثلاث سنوات تلمّس خط بيانيّ حاكم في القراءات التي تقدّمها للقراء حول الأحداث الجارية في العالم والمنطقة ولبنان، والتي تشكل خلفية فكرية سياسية في مقاربة المتغيرات والتطورات، ومحور الثوابت التي ترتكز عليها هذه الخلفية وتنطلق منها، أن أميركا التي عرفناها لم تعد موجودة وهي تتغيّر وتضمر، وصولاً للتأقلم مع دور دولي أقل حجماً وأكثر ميلاً للتسويات، بعد نفاد طاقتها الاجتماعية والبشرية على خوض الحروب، وأن «إسرائيل» لا تختلف عن أميركا في هذا التغيّر إلا بحال الإنكار التي تسكن عقول قادتها، ومثل «إسرائيل» حال السعودية، وبينهما سائر الحلفاء في تركيا وفرنسا وبريطانيا، وأن الحرب على سورية هي حرب القرن الحادي والعشرين ومن رحمها سيولد نظام دولي جديد ونظام إقليمي جديد، وأن روسيا ستتحول مع الصين إلى اللاعب الدولي الأول، في الشرق الأوسط على الأقل، وأن إيران الدولة الأعظم في الإقليم، وأن توصيات لجنة بايكر هاملتون الأميركية الجامعة للحزبين الديمقراطي والجمهوري، بالتأقلم مع المتغيرات، يُعمل بها دون إعلان، فهي خلفية التفاهم مع روسيا والتفاهم على الملف النووي مع إيران، وهي في مكان ما خلفية وصول دونالد ترامب الجمهوري وفريقه المتطرّف، عكس ما سيفعله بالكامل، من انكفاء بأميركا من الحروب، نحو الداخل.

– إيقاع قراءة الأحداث في هذه الزاوية رسم توقعات منها تموضع عسكري روسي على المتوسط، ومنها توقيع التفاهم على الملف النووي الإيراني، واستبعاد خيار التورط العسكري الأميركي المباشر في حرب سوريا، وحتمية ولادة تفاهم يمني ينهي الحرب وفقاً لمطالب الحوثيين بحكومة موحدة، واعتبار التفاهم الروسي الأميركي في سورية حيّ مع وقف التنفيذ حتى الحسم في حلب، وحتمية مجيء الرئيس سعد الحريري لملاقاة خيار حزب الله الرئاسي في لبنان الذي يمثله العماد ميشال عون، ويحكم كل هذه التوقعات ربط بزمن محدد كسقف يحكم الحركة الأميركية، تتسارع الخطوات كلما اقترب، وهو موعد خروج آخر جندي أميركي من أفغانستان. وهو الموعد الذي كان مقرراً في نهاية العام 2014، ومدّد لنهاية ولاية الرئيس الأميركي باراك أوباما منتصف الشهر الأول من العام 2017، وقد نفذت روزنامة الانسحاب تباعاً وفقاً لهذا التاريخ، وكلما اقترب الموعد ستبدو الخطوات دراماتيكية نحو النهايات.

– حسم حلب وحل سياسي في اليمن، يضمنان السير المعلن في التفاهم الروسي الأميركي في الحرب على داعش والنصرة، ويبرران تموضعاً سعودياً للتفاوض مع إيران، بعدما ظهر في لبنان ويظهر في اليمن، أن التفاهم بالواسطة ممكن، وصولا إلى بدء ولاية الرئيس الأميركي الجديد تمهيداً لقمة تجمعه بالرئيس الروسي العائد لولاية جديدة، لرسم خرائط التعاون الدولي، حيث سورية بقيادة رئيسها بشار الأسد ركن في معادلات الشرق الأوسط الجديد، وحزب الله قوة إقليمية كبرى، وحيث كان مستحيلاً لهذا الترسيم للخرائط والتأقلم الأميركي مع الوقائع أن يحدث بوصول هيلاري كلينتون، بقينا نفتح للقراء نافذة واسعة على ما سُمّي بمفاجأة وصول دونالد ترامب للرئاسة الأميركية رغم دفق التوقعات واستطلاعات الرأي المعاكسة.

إن الأيام المقبلة فاصلة في كل الملفات الساخنة، ستون يوماً بستين شهراً، كل يوم بحدث جديد، ولبنان الذي استبق المتغيرات ببوليصة تأمين تشبه ولادة حكومة الرئيس تمام سلام بانعطاف مفاجئ للرئيس سعد الحريري، يعبر عن اتجاه الريح المقبلة، وأهله يقولون صنع في لبنان، بينما ما جرى عندهم وما يجري في اليمن وما سيجري في سورية بنود من التفاهم الروسي الأميركي تنفذ تباعاً، كما التفاهم الروسي الأميركي والتفاهم على الملف النووي الإيراني بنود من وثيقة بايكر هاملتون تنفذ تباعاً.

– يحسن اللبنانيون صنعاً إذا استثمروا سريعاً على مناخ التسويات بحسم مع الإرهاب بدعم روسي أميركي، وإذا سارعوا لقانون انتخاب عصري وحكومة جامعة قبله وبعده، فيؤكدون بلوغ سن الرشد السياسي.

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