US Global Wars Cost 900k Lives, $8 Trillion Over Two Decades

 September 2, 2021

US Global Wars Cost 900k Lives, $8 Trillion Over Two Decades

By Staff, Agencies

The US so-called war on terror has taken almost one million lives across the globe and cost the country $8 trillion, over the past two decades, says a new report.

A report issued by Costs of War Project at Brown University, at end of the disastrous US withdrawal from Afghanistan, estimated 897,000 to 929,000 people have lost their lives as a direct result of war, whether by bombs, bullets or fire, in some 80 countries.

“The war has been long and complex and horrific and unsuccessful… and the war continues in over 80 countries,” said co-director of Costs of War, Catherine Lutz on Wednesday.

The death toll, includes US military members, allied fighters, opposition fighters, civilians, journalists and humanitarian aid workers, the report said.

The figure, however, does not include the many indirect deaths the war has caused by way of disease, displacement and loss of access to food or clean drinking water.

“The deaths we tallied are likely a vast undercount of the true toll these wars have taken on human life,” said Neta Crawford, another co-founder of the project.

The project also revealed that the wars have cost the US an estimated $8 trillion in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan and Syria.

Of the $8 trillion, $2.3 trillion is attributed to the Afghanistan/Pakistan war zone.

“The Pentagon and the US military have now absorbed the great majority of the federal discretionary budget, and most people don’t know that,” said Lutz.

“Our task, now and in future years, is to educate the public on the ways in which we fund those wars and the scale of that funding,” she added.

Another researcher of the project, Stephanie Savell said, “Twenty years from now, we’ll still be reckoning with the high societal costs of the Afghanistan and Iraq wars – long after US forces are gone.”

US Global Wars Cost 900k Lives, $8 Trillion Over Two Decades
Source: Costs of War Project – Brown University

The United States and its allies invaded Afghanistan in October 2001 as part of the so-called war on terror. While the invasion ended the Taliban’s rule in the country back then, it is now ended with the return of the group to power.

On August 31, the picture of US Army general Chris Donahue appeared on the news as the last US soldier to leave Afghanistan. US media outlets had headlines indicating that the US war in Afghanistan was finally over.

US President Joe Biden also addressed the nation, and defended his decision to withdraw, saying, “I was not going to extend this forever war, and I was not extending a forever exit” and “It’s time to end the war in Afghanistan.”

For the first time in 20 years now, there is no US military presence in Afghanistan, but observers say no troops on the ground does not mean that the US war in the country is over.

They said the withdrawal simply means that one method of waging war in Afghanistan is no longer occurring.

THE RETURN OF THE TALIBAN 20 YEARS LATER

Taliban co-founder Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar leaves after signing an agreement with the United States during a ceremony in the Qatari capital Doha on February 29, 2020.
TALIBAN CO-FOUNDER MULLAH ABDUL GHANI BARADAR LEAVES AFTER SIGNING AN AGREEMENT WITH THE UNITED STATES DURING A CEREMONY IN THE QATARI CAPITAL DOHA ON FEBRUARY 29, 2020. (AFP PHOTO)

August 18, 2021

By Vijay Prashad,

Peoples Dispatch.

Vijay Prashad explains the Taliban’s defeat of the US-backed government in Afghanistan following the US troop withdrawal.

On August 15, the Taliban arrived in Kabul. The Taliban’s leadership entered the presidential palace, which Afghan President Ashraf Ghani had vacated when he fled into exile abroad hours before. The country’s borders shut down and Kabul’s main international airport lay silent, except for the cries of those Afghans who had worked for the US and NATO; they knew that their lives would now be at serious risk. The Taliban’s leadership, meanwhile, tried to reassure the public of a “peaceful transition” by saying in several statements that they would not seek retribution, but would go after corruption and lawlessness.

The Taliban’s Entry in Kabul Is a Defeat for the United States

In recent years, the United States has failed to accomplish any of the objectives of its wars. The US entered Afghanistan with horrendous bombing and a lawless campaign of extraordinary rendition in October 2001 with the objective of ejecting the Taliban from the country; now, 20 years later, the Taliban is back. In 2003, two years after the US unleashed a war in Afghanistan, it opened an illegal war against Iraq, which ultimately resulted in an unconditional withdrawal of the United States in 2011 after the refusal by the Iraqi parliament to allow US troops extralegal protections. As the US withdrew from Iraq, it opened a terrible war against Libya in 2011, which resulted in the creation of chaos in the region.

Not one of these wars—Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya—resulted in the creation of a pro-US government. Each of these wars created needless suffering for the civilian populations. Millions of people had their lives disrupted, while hundreds of thousands of people lost their lives in these senseless wars. What faith in humanity can now be expected from a young person in Jalalabad or in Sirte? Will they now turn inward, fearing that any possibility of change has been seized from them by the barbaric wars inflicted upon them and other residents of their countries?

There is no question that the United States continues to have the world’s largest military and that by using its base structure and its aerial and naval power, the US can strike any country at any time. But what is the point of bombing a country if that violence attains no political ends? The US used its advanced drones to assassinate the Taliban leaders, but for each leader that it killed, another half a dozen have emerged. Besides, the men in charge of the Taliban now—including the co-founder of the Taliban and head of its political commission, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar—were there from the start; it would never have been possible to decapitate the entire Taliban leadership. More than $2 trillion has been spent by the United States on a war that it knew could not be won.

Corruption Was the Trojan Horse

In early statements, Mullah Baradar said that his government will focus its attention on the endemic corruption in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, stories spread across Kabul about ministers of Ashraf Ghani’s government attempting to leave the country in cars filled with dollar bills, which was supposed to be the money that was provided by the US to Afghanistan for aid and infrastructure. The drain of wealth from the aid given to the country has been significant. In a 2016 report by the US government’s Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) relating to the “Lessons Learned from the US Experience with Corruption in Afghanistan,” the investigators write, “Corruption significantly undermined the US mission in Afghanistan by damaging the legitimacy of the Afghan government, strengthening popular support for the insurgency, and channeling material resources to insurgent groups.” SIGAR created a “gallery of greed,” which listed US contractors who siphoned aid money and pocketed it through fraud. More than $2 trillion has been spent on the US occupation of Afghanistan, but it went neither to provide relief nor to build the country’s infrastructure. The money fattened the rich in the United States, Pakistan, and Afghanistan.

Corruption at the very top of the government depleted morale below. The US pinned its hopes on the training of 300,000 soldiers of the Afghan National Army (ANA), spending $88 billion on this pursuit. In 2019, a purge of “ghost soldiers” in the rolls—soldiers who did not exist—led to the loss of 42,000 troops; it is likely that the number might have been higher. Morale in the ANA has plunged over the past few years, with defections from the army to other forces escalating. Defense of the provincial capitals was also weak, with Kabul falling to the Taliban almost without a fight.

To this end, the recently appointed defense minister to the Ghani government, General Bismillah Mohammadi, commented on Twitter about the governments that have been in power in Afghanistan since late 2001, “They tied our hands behind our backs and sold the homeland. Damn the rich man [Ghani] and his people.” This captures the popular mood in Afghanistan right now.

Afghanistan and Its Neighbors

Hours after taking power, a spokesperson for the Taliban’s political office, Dr. M. Naeem, said that all embassies will be protected, while another spokesperson for the Taliban, Zabihullah Mujahid, said that all former government officials did not need to fear for their lives. These are reassuring messages for now.

It has also been reassuring that the Taliban has said that it is not averse to a government of national unity, although there should be no doubt that such a government would be a rubber stamp for the Taliban’s own political agenda. So far, the Taliban has not articulated a plan for Afghanistan, which is something that the country has needed for at least a generation.

On July 28, Taliban leader Mullah Baradar met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Tianjin, China. The outlines of the discussion have not been fully revealed, but what is known is that the Chinese extracted a promise from the Taliban not to allow attacks on China from Afghanistan and not to allow attacks on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) infrastructure in Central Asia. In return, China would continue its BRI investments in the region, including in Pakistan, which is a key Taliban supporter.

Whether or not the Taliban will be able to control extremist groups is not clear, but what is abundantly clear—in the absence of any credible Afghan opposition to the Taliban—is that the regional powers will have to exert their influence on Kabul to ameliorate the harsh program of the Taliban and its history of support for extremist groups. For instance, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (set up in 2001) revived in 2017 its Afghanistan Contact Group, which held a meeting in Dushanbe in July 2021, and called for a national unity government.

At that meeting, India’s External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar laid out a three-point plan, which achieved near consensus among the fractious neighbors:

“1. An independent, neutral, unified, peaceful, democratic and prosperous nation.

“2. Ceasing violence and terrorist attacks against civilians and state representatives, settle conflict through political dialogue, and respect interests of all ethnic groups, and

“3. Ensure that neighbors are not threatened by terrorism, separatism and extremism.”

That’s the most that can be expected at this moment. The plan promises peace, which is a great advance from what the people of Afghanistan have experienced over the past decades. But what kind of peace? This “peace” does not include the rights of women and children to a world of possibilities. During 20 years of the US occupation, that “peace” was not in evidence either. This peace has no real political power behind it, but there are social movements beneath the surface that might emerge to put such a definition of “peace” on the table. Hope lies there.

Vijay Prashad is an Indian historian, editor and journalist. He is a writing fellow and chief correspondent at Globetrotter. He is the chief editor of LeftWord Books and the director of Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research. He is a senior non-resident fellow at Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China. He has written more than 20 books, including The Darker Nations and The Poorer Nations. His latest book is Washington Bullets, with an introduction by Evo Morales Ayma.

US Mission in Afghanistan Was Never Nation Building, Says Biden

August 17, 2021

Source: Al Mayadeen

By Al Mayadeen

Following the great amount of criticism he was subjected to, Biden makes a speech from the White House in which he said ending US military involvement in Afghanistan now was the right decision.

United States President Joe Biden
Joe Biden addresses rumors

As the situation in Afghanistan escalates following the Taliban takeover, in addition to the harsh criticism he is being subjected to over the way his Administration handled the Afghan crisis, Joe Biden makes a speech from the White House.

“Our mission in Afghanistan was never supposed to have been nation building. It was never supposed to be creating a unified centralized democracy,” Biden said. He noted that the only vital US interest in Afghanistan today is “preventing terrorist attacks on American homeland.”

“We went to Afghanistan almost 20 years ago with clear goals; get those who attacked us on September 11th, 2001,” he added.

The American President expressed his belief that what is currently happening in Afghanistan, “Could just as easily happened 5 years ago or 15 years in the future,” saying he had to make a choice to either follow through on former President Donald Trump’s agreement with the Taliban or to go back to fighting with them.

The Democrat said this situation unfolded faster than the administration anticipated, however asserting that he doesn’t “regret [his] decision to end America’s war fighting in Afghanistan.”

Biden stated that his administration made it clear to the Taliban that upon any attack on US personnel or disruption of their operation, “The US presence will be swift and the response will be swift and forceful.”

Additionally, Biden declared that his country gave the Afghan forces everything they needed and every chance to determine their own future; however, as he said, they had no will to fight for their future.

The US President followed up by saying if Afghanistan could not resist the Taliban now, “There is no change that one more year, five more years, or twenty more years of US military boots on the ground would have made any difference.”

“American troops cannot and should not be fighting in a war, and dying in a war that Afghan forces are not willing to fight for themselves,” he added.

President “assured” that the United States would continue supporting the people of Afghanistan through their diplomacy, international influence, and humanitarian aid.

The 46th United States President clarified that he made several propositions to Afghan President Ashraf Ghani regarding a political settlement with the Taliban, advising him to take the diplomatic path. However, as Biden declared, those propositions and advice were “flatly refused” by President Ghani.

Biden accused Russia and China of having interest in a destabilized Afghanistan, saying, “China and Russia, would love nothing more than the United States to continue to funnel billions of dollars in resources and attention into stabilizing Afghanistan indefinitely.”

US President Biden interrupted Monday his holiday at Camp David and returned to the White House following the fall of Kabul that took the world by surprise.

Previously, in his latest statement on the developments in Afghanistan, Biden said he has no regrets. “I do not regret my decision,” he asserted when asked if the Biden administration’s withdrawal plans have changed, taking the Taliban’s latest offenses and advances into account.

Earlier today, US Department of Defense spokesman John Kirby stated that the Afghan government had collapsed due to a lack of leadership.

In reference to the Doha Agreement signed in February of 2020, US Department of State spokesperson Ned Price accused former President Donald Trump and his administration of striking a deal with the Taliban that was not in the US’s best interests.

President Joe Biden is facing harsh criticism from his opponents, who believe he mismanaged the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, prompting the US to rush to evacuate its embassy and citizens, blaming Biden for underestimating fears of the Afghan government collapsing quickly last month.  

Amos Yaldin, the former head of the IOF Military Intelligence Directorate, touched on the scenes of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. He said the United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan, especially as it was depicted, was insulting.

The Israeli media, commenting on the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, said: “With the United States withdrawing its last nationals, it is, in reality, fleeing from Afghanistan, and it is not a withdrawal as the current administration is trying to portray it.”

On Monday, the United Nations Security Council urged an immediate end to hostilities and human rights violations in Afghanistan, as well as the formation of a new government through negotiations that is unified, inclusive, and represents all parties, as well as ensuring full and equal participation of women.

Antonio Guterres, the UN Secretary-General, urged the international community to work together to eliminate the terrorist danger in Afghanistan, particularly after the Taliban took control of Kabul.

During the 20-year US occupation of Afghanistan, the US has lost around 2500 soldiers and spent more than two trillion dollars.

Earlier, the Taliban announced capturing most of the provinces following Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s departure from Afghanistan toward Tajikistan after resigning.

After capturing the Afghan Presidential palace and Ashraf Ghani’s resignation, a Taliban official says the movement will soon declare the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan in Kabul.

The Kabul Assembly committee stated today that the Taliban Forces will be in charge of security and stability in the city.

The Axis of Resistance’s Road from Tehran to Beirut is Open and Secure

Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on 

https://media.thecradle.co/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/12101423/Unknown-2-3.jpeg


Elijah J. Magnier

From the Levant to the Persian Gulf, a land route is now open, and the Axis of Resistance controls those borders crossings.
Photo credit: The Cradle

Many wars have been waged in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Palestine to defeat the “Axis of Resistance” or to at least deplete its logistics and supply lines. In all wars, tons of ammunition, bombs, and missiles are expended on both sides, often exhausting supplies. Each belligerent, therefore, needs to replenish its arsenal for the next confrontation, or at the very minimum, to demonstrate to the enemy its growing military capabilities, preparedness, and access to vital supplies. Most of the time, this is a valuable deterrent strategy used to avoid wars. However, because the 2006 Israeli war on Lebanon and the subsequent US occupation of Iraq and eastern Syria failed to achieve the desired US-Israeli objectives, the goal shifted heavily toward obstructing their supply lines: to cut off the Axis of Resistance road.

The aim was to stop Resistance Axis members (Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iraqi resistance groups) from re-arming themselves, and to prevent their access to weapons upgrades in advance of the next military confrontation. There began a race between the US-Israeli alliance and the Resistance Axis to control the accessibility of the vital Tehran-Beirut landline. This objective was reached first by the Resistance Axis, who liberated the Albu Kamal-al Qaem crossing on the Syrian-Iraqi border and placed it firmly under their control. Ever since, this crossing has also become a hub for critical commercial and consumer supplies whose flow the US has tried to halt by imposing harsh sanctions on Iran and Syria to prevent Iraq from providing any support. Rather, the US tried, but failed.

This significant American defeat, however, was not blared from rooftops, either by the US or by its adversaries. It is sufficient for the Resistance Axis that anything and everything they wish to transport via Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, reaches its destination, unhindered.

Traveling from the Syrian town of Qusayr, on Lebanon’s border, to Palmyra (Tadmur) is safe despite the dozens of checkpoints along the road. The Syrian Army controls the area and prevents anyone from traveling between provinces without valid documentation. Many Syrians from these provinces fled to secure areas to escape ISIS rule, and have since been trickling back to inspect their abandoned homes and resettle. Syria’s Badiyah has also become relatively safe following months of indiscriminate attacks by ISIS remnants against travelers. According to security officers, most of the ISIS militants were inhabitants of the area and its surroundings, and fled when ISIS was defeated by Syrian allied forces in 2017 and 2018.

Since then, special security brigades have been deployed from Palmyra to Deir Ezzor, while others continue to patrol the Syrian steppe to hunt down ISIS militants. However, it is still unsafe to travel through the Badiyah, and the main road used is via Sukhnah, Kabajeb, Asholah, and Deir Ezzor. From Deir Ezzor to the Iraqi border, the route via al Mayadeen, al Salehiya, and Albu Kamal is safe and well protected.

When the decision was made to clear the road and eliminate ISIS in the cities east of the Euphrates River, the Syrian Army and its allies attempted to free the al-Tanf border region with Iraq. US jets intervened, attacked the brigades, causing more than 50 casualties to prevent the defeat of ISIS targets. The Resistance Axis’ joint military operating room understood that the US plan was to cut off Syria from its neighbors, since its borders with Jordan were already closed.

Brigadier General Qassem Suleimani, head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps’ Quds Brigade – later, assassinated by US drones near Baghdad airport in 2020 – personally took part in the assault on al Mayadeen and Albu Kamal, even before the liberation of Deir Ezzor. Soleimani wanted to reach and control the Syrian-Iraqi borders before the Americans, fearing the US establishment of a “no man’s land” to prevent free passage between Iraq and Syria.

Syrian Druze General Issam Zahreddine – later, killed by a mine after defeating ISIS in Deir Ezzor – was fighting alongside Hezbollah’s al-Radwan Special Forces, and managed to prevent an ISIS takeover of Deir Ezzor airport and part of the city, notwithstanding intervening US airstrikes that unsuccessfully aimed to enable the ISIS airport breach and killed and wounded over 200 Syrian officers. When the decision was taken to liberate the entire province, Suleimani was not very concerned about the city because Russian-supported Syrian Special Forces (Tiger Brigade) were already crushing ISIS positions there.

Suleimani coordinated his efforts with the Iraqi resistance, hunting down ISIS along the borders between Syria and Iraq’s al Qaem, in order to corner and eliminate the terrorist group on both sides. Following fierce battles, Albu Kamal and al Qaem were liberated – becoming the only border crossing to fall into the hands of the Syrian Army and its allies. Syria was no longer isolated from its surrounding neighbors. The road between Tehran, Baghdad, Damascus, and Beirut was open, and for the first time since the era of Saddam Hussein, in the hands of the Resistance Axis. A sea route is insufficient to transport all the needs of the Axis. This is why it was vital to open the land route at all costs. The US and Israel were aware of the plan but were in no position to stop it.

Driving from Deir Ezzor to Albu Kamal, the Euphrates River offers the sight of rare birds who migrate to this area now that it is no longer heavily frequented. The many abandoned and shell-pocked houses along the route remind passerbys of the ferocity of the battles. Syrian Army checkpoints are strict about preventing visits from anyone who doesn’t live in the province. The Americans control the other side of the river, and the oil and gas wells can be seen from afar with the naked eye.

In the main, ISIS militants were inhabitants of this area too, with foreign jihadists representing only a tiny percentage of the fighters. This is another reason why it is not safe to travel by night. With nightfall, it becomes clear that electricity has not been restored. The sound of only a few private generators can be heard from time to time. During the daytime hours, however, the generator count spikes, as farmers switch them on to pump water for their fields. The area is rich in its agriculture, and despite the US occupation of Syria’s strategic foodbelt province of Hasaka, provides enough wheat to be distributed to provinces beyond Deir Ezzor.

At the gate of Albu Kamal, a large billboard welcomes visitors with the name of the city, a portrait of President Bashar al Assad, and the Syrian national flag. Though incomparable with the old souk markets of Damascus or Aleppo, the local vegetable and fruit market still flourishes and bustles during the day.

Houses are one or two floors high, many with shops underneath. Several private villas adorn the border city. It is impossible to miss a large portrait of Iran’s Brigadier General Qassem Suleimani and Iraq’s PMU Deputy Commander Abu Mahdi al Muhandes, both assassinated by the US in Baghdad in January 2020. The two men contributed to the liberation of Iraq and Syria from ISIS, indeed, mainly Albu Kamal city. Soleimani used one of the private villas as his headquarters when in town, and left a hand-written note to the owner asking him forgiveness for using his house, and leaving his phone number to be contacted in case of need.

Eight kilometers separate Albu Kamal from Al Qaem on the Iraqi borders. The road is crowded with trucks crossing mainly from Iraq, and a few from Syria. Iraq established a border position to allow the flow of goods to Syria, though essentially follows the guidelines of the severe EU-US embargo on Damascus. Not far from the main road controlled by both the Syrian and the Iraqi customs authorities, there is another road where trucks transit between Iran-Iraq into Syria and Lebanon. These trucks are sealed so they won’t be opened on the road, and are verified by the Syrian authorities before they cross into Lebanon. After many years in the making, and dangerous challenges along the way, the Axis of the Resistance has managed to secure its logistic supply route.

Israeli and US forces have targeted the area dozens of times. Warehouses, military bases, and large isolated shops were destroyed last year by Israeli jets, but without managing to slow down the flow of supplies, or the replenishing of goods and structures destroyed by the enemy’s air force. Israel also bombed thousands of cars, trucks, and refrigerators stocked by Iranian donors for the province’s inhabitants to distribute. Iran is earning the loyalty and hearts of the local population by offering another behavior, contrasting starkly with what ISIS made these inhabitants endure through fear and punishment.

It is no secret that the people of Albu Kamal notice the withdrawal of many of the forces stationed in the city. There is no longer a need for a considerable power to be permanently based in Albu Kamal. The Axis of Resistance supply line is still secure. Iran has opened several pathways: Tikrit-Haditha-al Qaem, Baghdad-Ramadi-al Qaem, and Diwaniyeh-Hilla-Fallujah-al Qaem. This means, despite more than a thousand Israeli attacks, neither the commercial exchange between Syria and Iraq-Iran nor the Resistance Axis’ supply line has never once stopped since ISIS’s defeat.

The American military presence at al Tanf border between Iraq and Syria serves no US national interest and represents no danger to Washington, yet it persists to placate a desperate Israel (despite its constant bombing of Syria) that fears being left alone to face the Axis of Resistance. The US is indeed acting only to serve Israeli interests by keeping hundreds of its servicemen occupying and inciting Levant conflict zones.

How long can Israel hang on to this American security blanket? Take note of the sudden US mass exit in Afghanistan. Two decades and a trillion dollars wore Washington down, achieving nothing of the initial objectives it set in 2001. America’s global political and economic clout has shrunk considerably since then. There is reason to believe the same scenario will happen sooner or later in Syria.

Israeli air bombing has never stopped the Axis of Resistance from arming itself and being prepared for Tel Aviv when it decides to wage the next war. Hezbollah managed to stockpile hundreds of precision missiles under the searching eyes of the Israelis without them being able to alter the outcome. The Axis of Resistance has won the battle and cleared its path: the road from Tehran to Beirut is open and secure.

Was the Tanker Attack an Israeli False Flag?

AUGUST 10, 202121

An incident that could lead to a much bigger war

PHILIP GIRALDI 

Source: The Unz Review

In the United States we now live under a government that largely operates in secret, headed by an executive that ignores the constitutional separation of powers and backed by a legislature that is more interested in social engineering than in benefitting the American people. The US, together with its best friend and faux ally Israel, has become the ultimate rogue nation, asserting its right to attack anyone at any time who refuses to recognize Washington’s leadership. America is a country in decline, its influence having been eroded by a string of foreign policy and military disasters starting with Vietnam and more recently including Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, Yemen and the Ukraine. As a result, respect for the United States has plummeted most particularly over the past twenty years since the War on Terror was declared and the country has become a debtor nation as it prints money to sustain a pointless policy of global hegemony which no one else either desires or respects.

It has been argued in some circles that the hopelessly ignorant Donald Trump and the dementia plagued Joe Biden have done one positive thing, and that has been to keep us out of an actual shooting war with anyone able to retaliate in kind, which means in practice Russia and possibly China. Even if that were so, one might question a clumsy foreign policy devoid of any genuine national interest that is a train wreck waiting to happen. It has no off switch and has pushed America’s two principal rivals into becoming willy-nilly de facto enemies, something which neither Moscow nor Beijing wished to see develop.

Contrary to the claims that Trump and Biden are war-shy, both men have in fact committed war crimes by carrying out attacks on targets in both Syria and Iraq, to include the assassination of senior Iranian general Qasim Soleimani in January 2020. Though it was claimed at the time that the attacks were retaliatory, evidence supporting that view was either non-existent or deliberately fabricated.

Part of the problem for Washington is that the US had inextricably tied itself to worthless so-called allies in the Middle East, most notably Israel and Saudi Arabia. The real danger is not that Joe Biden or Kamala Harris will do something really stupid but rather that Riyadh or Jerusalem will get involved in something over their heads and demand, as “allies,” that they be bailed out by Uncle Sam. Biden will be unable to resist, particularly if it is the Israel Lobby that is doing the pushing.

Perhaps one of the more interesting news plus analysis articles along those lines that I have read in a while appeared last week in the Business Insider, written by one Mitchell Plitnick, who is described as president of ReThinking Foreign Policy. The article bears the headline “Russia and Israel may be on a collision course in Syria” and it argues that Russia’s commitment to Syria and Israel’s interest in actively deterring Iran and its proxies are irreconcilable, with the US ending up in an extremely difficult position which could easily lead to its involvement in what could become a new shooting war. The White House would have to tread very carefully as it would likely want to avoid sending the wrong signals either to Moscow or Jerusalem, but that realization may be beyond the thinking of the warhawks on the National Security Council.

To place the Plitnick article in its current context of rumors of wars, one might cite yet another piece in Business Insider about the July 30th explosive drone attack on an oil tanker off the coast of Oman in the northern Indian Ocean, which killed two crewmen, a Briton and a Romanian. The bombing was immediately attributed to Iran by both Israel and Washington, though the only proof presented was that the fragments of the drone appeared to demonstrate that it was Iranian made, which means little as the device is available to and used by various players throughout the Middle East and in central Asia.

The tanker in question was the MT Mercer Street, sailing under a Liberian flag but Japanese-owned and managed by Zodiac Maritime, an international ship management company headquartered in London and owned by Israeli shipping magnate Eyal Ofer. It was empty, sailing to pick up a cargo, and had a mixed international crew. Inevitably, initial media reporting depended on analysis by the US and Israel, which saw the attack as a warning or retaliatory strike executed or ordered by the newly elected government currently assuming control in Tehran.

US Secretary of State Tony Blinken, who could not possibly have known who carried out the attack, was not shy about expressing his “authoritative” viewpoint, asserting that “We are confident that Iran conducted this attack. We are working with our partners to consider our next steps and consulting with governments inside the region and beyond on an appropriate response, which will be forthcoming.”

The US Central Command (CENTCOM) also all too quickly pointed to Iran, stating that “The use of Iranian designed and produced one way attack ‘kamikaze’ UAVs is a growing trend in the region. They are actively used by Iran and their proxies against coalition forces in the region, to include targets in Saudi Arabia and Iraq.”

Tehran denied that it had carried out the attack but the Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz was not accepting that and threatened to attack Iran, saying predictably that “We are at a point where we need to take military action against Iran. The world needs to take action against Iran now… Now is the time for deeds — words are not enough. … It is time for diplomatic, economic and even military deeds. Otherwise the attacks will continue.” Gantz also confirmed that “Israel is ready to attack Iran, yes…”

New Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett also made the same demand, saying Israel could “…act alone. They can’t sit calmly in Tehran while igniting the entire Middle East — that’s over. We are working to enlist the whole world, but when the time comes, we know how to act alone.” If the level of verbal vituperation coming out of Israel is anything to go by, an attack on Iran would appear to be imminent.

After the attack on the MT Mercer Street, there soon followed the panicked account the panicked account of an alleged hijacking of a second tanker by personnel initially reported to be wearing “Iranian military uniforms.” The “…hijacking incident in international waters in the Gulf of Oman” ended peacefully however. The US State Department subsequently reported that “We can confirm that personnel have left the Panama-flagged Asphalt Princess… We believe that these personnel were Iranian, but we’re not in a position to confirm this at this time.”

So, the United States government does not actually know who did what to whom but is evidently willing to indict Iran and look the other way if Israel should choose to start a war. Conservative columnist Pat Buchanan is right to compare the drone attack on the Mercer Street to the alleged Gulf of Tonkin Incident in 1964, which was deliberately distorted by the Lyndon B. Johnson Administration and used to justify rapid escalation of US involvement in the Vietnam War. Buchanan observes that it is by no means clear that Iran was behind the Mercer Street attack and there are a number of good reasons to doubt it, including Iranian hopes to have sanctions against its economy lifted which will require best behavior. Also, Iran would have known that it would be blamed for such an incident in any event, so why should it risk going to war with Israel and the US, a war that it knows it cannot win?

Buchanan observes that whoever attacked the tanker wants war and also to derail any negotiations to de-sanction Iran, but he stops short of suggesting who that might be. The answer is of course Israel, engaging in a false flag operation employing an Iranian produced drone. And I would add to Buchanan’s comments that there is in any event a terrible stink of hypocrisy over the threat of war to avenge the tanker incident. Israel has attacked Iranian ships in the past and has been regularly bombing Syria in often successful attempts to kill Iranians who are, by the way, in the country at the invitation of its legitimate government. Zionist Joe Biden has yet to condemn those war crimes, nor has the suddenly aroused Tony Blinken. And Joe, who surely knows that neither Syria nor Iran threatens the United States, also continues to keep American troops in Syria, occupying a large part of the country, which directly confront the Kremlin’s forces. Israel wants a war that will inevitably involve the United States and maybe also Russia to some degree as collateral damage. Will it get that or will Biden have the courage to say “No!”

Philip M. Giraldi, Ph.D., is Executive Director of the Council for the National Interest, a 501(c)3 tax deductible educational foundation (Federal ID Number #52-1739023) that seeks a more interests-based U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. Website is https://councilforthenationalinterest.org address is P.O. Box 2157, Purcellville VA 20134 and its email is inform@cnionline.org

In Between Taliban and COVID

 BY GILAD ATZMON

Taliban Covid.jpg

By Gilad Atzmon

Does it take a genius to gather that the colossal failure of the USA’s war in Afghanistan is identical to the disastrous ‘war against COVID’? It’s certainly clear that it is pretty much the same people who devised the fatal strategies that led to a grandiose defeat in these two unnecessary conflicts. We deal with people who adhere to the concept of war of destruction. These are people who do not seek peace, harmony or reconciliation neither with nature nor with other segments of humanity.   

Our pandemic ‘strategists’ believed that it was within their powers to wipe SARS CoV 2 from the face of the earth. They were similarly convinced that the Taliban could be eradicated. They were, obviously, catastrophically wrong.

But the progressives and the so-called Left also have an unforgivable part in these catastrophic tales. The Left weren’t responsible for the ‘strategies’ or the grand planning. They weren’t really participants in the neoconservative think tanks, they weren’t involved in Pfizer’s promise to fix the human genome. They weren’t advising Netanyahu, Trump or Johnson’s in 2020 as they weren’t amongst Bush’s advisers back in 2001. But they were the first to support the Ziocon ‘War Against Terror,’ mostly in the name of ‘moral interventionism.’ Similarly, they have been amongst the most enthusiastic supporters of the current experiment in mass human population.

One doesn’t need to scratch the surface to notice that that the Jewish State also had a central role in these two humongous blunders. The neocon think tanks that pushed America to Afghanistan were of course made of ardent Jewish Zionists.  Back in 2003 Ari Shavit wrote in Haaretz “The war in Iraq was conceived by 25 neoconservative intellectuals, most of them Jewish, who are pushing President Bush to change the course of history.” The people who volunteered themselves as the guinea pigs in Pfizer’s COVID experiment where of course the Israelis. Netanyahu’s Israel didn’t attempt to “live with COVID,” it instead treated the virus as a contemporary Amalek, an anti-Semitic plague that must be eradicated: the Mossad together with the IDF joined forces in the war against Covid. When it seemed as if number of COVID cases were going down, Israel was fast to declare a victory in the war against the virus. 

 

But the reality is embarrassing. In Afghanistan the Taliban is stronger than ever. America left the country it promised to ‘liberate’ with its tail between its legs. In the fight against COVID, America is equally defeated.  In the USA, a CDC study found vaccinated people made up 74% of cases in a beach town outbreak in Massachusetts. And In Israel, Delta has made a spectacularly successful aliya. The vaccinated are now overrepresented amongst Delta cases and equally represented amongst critical cases.  A few days ago an Israeli hospital director admitted that 90% of his patients are vaccinated. “The vaccine is waning in front of our eyes,” he said.

The modernist 19th century military theorist Carl von Clausewitz defined war as “the continuation of politics by other means.” But in the global Zionised universe in which we live, politics is merely the continuation of war. Keeping the world in a conflict is the current global mantra as people are submissive when fearful. This philosophy has sustained Zionism for decades. It kept the Jewish people united for two millennia but it came with a price. Jewish history isn’t exactly a story of tranquility.    

It shouldn’t really be me who reminds my fellow peace loving brothers and sisters that loving one’s neighbor may as well mean seeking peace and harmony with the universe as a whole (viruses included).

Denote

Iranian analyst on Tehran’s efforts in post-US Afghanistan & role of Taliban

July 28, 2021

Iranian analyst on Tehran’s efforts in post-US Afghanistan & role of Taliban

http://middleeastobserver.net/iranian-analyst-on-irans-efforts-in-afghanistan-role-of-taliban/

Description:
In a political talk show appearance on RT Arabic earlier this month, Iranian political analyst Amir al-Moussawi commented on Iran’s stance towards the US army’s withdrawal from neighboring Afghanistan, and concerns surrounding the potential threat posed by the Taliban towards Kabul and the wider region.

Al-Moussawi is the director of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Tehran.

Source: RT Arabic (YouTube) Date: July 9, 2021

(Please help MEO keep producing independent translations for you by contributing a sustainable monthly amount https://www.patreon.com/MiddleEastObserver?fan_landing=true)

Transcript:

Host:

Mr. Amir, regarding the plans being prepared by Iran, regardless of its deterrence capabilities against any threat, and you pointed out that the Fatemiyoun are present as a force that can oppose any threat. But what about Iran’s ability to protect Afghanistan from falling into a whirlpool of chaos? Can Iran use its cultural or religious common ground with Afghanistan, or other common ground, to prevent it from entering the tunnel of a civil war?

Amir Al-Moussawi, Director of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies:

I believe that the American project will fail in Afghanistan. They’re after strife, they’re looking to damage Iranian, Russian and Chinese national security, even India, and maybe Pakistan as well. This is why you have good communication today between these parties. Yesterday, the Indian Foreign Minister arrived in Tehran to conduct important negotiations; I believe there is good communication between Mr. Zarif and Mr. Lavrov, the same goes with the Pakistanis and the Chinese as well.

I believe that there is a strong, resilient front in the region today, regionally speaking. As for the domestic scene, I don’t believe that the Taliban are as strong as they used to be. The Afghan people felt a type of freedom after the fall of the Taliban, and cannot withstand a stringent rule as that of the Taliban’s in the country (once again). There are also very strong forces, as you’ve said, in western Afghanistan.

So the Taliban must come to an agreement and form a national unity government, and Iran will push matters in that direction and encourage different parties to come to an understanding. Because I believe that no one will accept, regionally speaking at the very least…the US may be out to constantly create strife in the region because it has criminal objectives against China, against Iran, against Russia. I believe that the region is now in agreement, and the situation inside Afghanistan will not allow the Taliban to spread further.

Every side will accept its own share, its own reality, and a national unity government will be formed. This is what was agreed upon in Tehran. Iranian diplomacy will encourage this, and I believe that the government of President Rouhani will hand this matter over to Sayyed Raisi, who has formed an important and special committee tasked with Afghan affairs.

Of course we know very well that General Qa’ani, the leader of (IRGC’s) Quds Force, was specialized in Afghan matters during the days of Hajj Qassem, and so he is also present, and is helping bring together different sides in Afghanistan, not to mention the regional support (that exists).

I believe that everything will be under control, and will not devolve into a civil war, because things aren’t as the Americans see them, and even the Taliban can’t expand beyond their size.

American plans something but ends up differently

American plans something but ends up differently

April 23, 2021

By Zamir Awan for the Saker Blog

“I flew to Afghanistan, to the Kunar Valley — a rugged, mountainous region on the border with Pakistan. What I saw on that trip reinforced my conviction that only the Afghans have the right and responsibility to lead their country and that more and endless American military force could not create or sustain a durable Afghan government.” President Joe Biden explained in his remarks in the White House on 14 April 2021, where he announced the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan starting from 1 May 2021 and completes on 11 September 2021.

The US invaded Afghanistan to fight against the tribal system of Afghanistan and create a modern democratic government based on American vision. The US, with the help of its allies, and full military might, after spending Trillion Dollars, killing millions of human beings (from either side), devastating the whole country completely, is concluded that the Afghan war is unwinnable and the American must leave Afghanistan. Today in war-torn Afghanistan, there is no electricity because all dams & powerhouses were bombed. No infrastructure, all damaged in the ruthless bombing, no education, no health care, scarcity of food, medicine, fuel, etc. Homes were damaged, crops were destroyed, businesses were damaged—– one of the heaviest bombing and explosive used in the history of humankind. The poor Afghans are living a miserable life, all due to prolonged imposed war.

The US used state of the art, latest, advanced, most lethal weapons, modern war tactics, well-trained troops, and all possible technologies to win this war but failed adversely. The Allies, who were very much proactive in the early days of the war but calmed down gradually and today are not so supportive of the US on the Afghan war.

The number of Nato forces peaked at about 140,000 in 2011 but decreased in subsequent years as Nato countries wound down combat operations, handing over control to local security forces. Countries with troops still in Afghanistan include the US, Georgia, Germany, Turkey, Romania, Italy, the UK, and Australia. The US and allies created an Afghan Army of around 300,000 on the most modern lines and trained & equipped with the Western latest weapons. Yet failed to gain control over Afghanistan. Yet more than 70% of Afghanistan is under Taliban control.

Although the Afghan war has destroyed Afghanistan severely, it at the same time has also cost heavily to the US itself too. Not only Trillion dollars cost of the war, but thousands of servicemen’s lives, and substantial mental disturbance to servicemen involved in the Afghan war. Yet, the most prominent impact has been visible that instead of fighting the tribal system in Afghanistan, America itself has turned into a tribal society. The recent number of shootings and killings are increased sharply, depicting the visible change in the American society – tribal society – where might is right – gun culture. The exponential growth of crimes is undesired at all. Although President Trump created hate in American society and supported white-supremacist, the roots of hatred have existed for a long time, he was just a catalyst. It might take decades to normalize the situation in America.

Afghanistan is an old civilization and one of the oldest countries, which foreign invaders in history never defeated. Afghans have their own tradition of bravery. They might fight internally but are united against any intruders. Their tribal society is strong enough to resolve their issue, and any interference from outside or imposed system may not succeed. It took two decades for to American understand the nature of Afghan society and the solution to their problems. It is never too late; even if the American troop’s exit from Afghan, there might be a vacuum for the time being, and danger of bloodshed moves around. Ultimately, it is the Afghans only who have to resolve their issues. An Afghan let, Afghan-owned solution can be sustainable only.

The Americans should focus on how to help Afghanistan in reconstruction after the troops’ withdrawal. It might require several trillion dollars to rebuild Afghanistan. The US and allies who destroyed Afghanistan have the moral obligations to help Afghanistan generously.

However, the UN may also proactively pursue the reconstruction of Afghanistan after the withdrawal. After the world wars, an agreement like German and Japanese (Potsdam Agreement) agreements needed to be reached between Afghanistan and America, including allies, for war compensation. China and Russia may become guarantors of such an agreement for implementation.

However, Afghans are not the sons of lessor God and deserve equal treatment and access to a quality life. After spending four decades in war, at least they deserve a peaceful and prosperous life. It needs enormous funding, and only those who are responsible for this destruction are supposed to help them appropriately.

It is not the first time which happened with America, where it plans some things and ends up in entirely opposite. I recalled my days in China in the early 1980s, when American and European entrepreneurs were entering China to occupy the vast niche market of China. That was the era of China opening to the outside world and introducing economic reforms. China facilitated market access, and American & European businessmen and investors flooded the Chinese market with foreign products. Those were the days when China was facing a shortage of everything like food, consumer products and etc. A quota system was introduced to buy items of daily life. They made huge profits in the early days, but gradually, they shifted their industry to China to avail themselves of China’s cheap raw material and cheap labor cost. It was in the best interest of foreign companies to manufacture in China to cut down the cost and maximize their profit. But sooner, they became the market of China.

Against their original plan to occupy the Chinese market, they became a market for Chinese products. The worst phenomenon was visible in the early days of the Pandemic when America was dependant on China on essential items like Masks, Sanitizers, Ventilators, Testing kits, and toilet papers, etc. China has become the manufacturing factory for the world, and no other country can compete with China in daily consumer products.

China has emerged as the second-largest economy in the world and the biggest trading partner with most of the nations. China shares one-third of the global economy and supplies almost 70% of consumer products to the whole world. China has become a global power already.

The American experience in Vietnam War, Somaliya War, Syrian War, and Middle-East wars is not much different. In Seven Decades, hardly any war Which Americans can claim a total victory. However, during the World wars, the US was a winner.

Trust, next couple of decades, the US must focus on its domestic issues and re-evaluate its mistakes in the perspective of changed geopolitics. Stop meddling in other nations and countries, stop thinking to change the world order as per the wishes of America. Let others live the life as they desire and live your own life according to your own wishes. Let peace, stability, and prosperity boom around the world, avoid imposing wars on other nations. Respect humanity and respect human lives.


Author: Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan, Sinologist (ex-Diplomat), Editor, Analyst, Non-Resident Fellow of CCG (Center for China and Globalization), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Pakistan. (E-mail: awanzamir@yahoo.com).

The Yankees Are Coming Home: The Taliban Won. Get Over It

American soldiers can still win wars, but it has to be a real war where there is something genuine at stake, like protecting one’s home and family.

By Philip Giraldi

Global Research, April 09, 2021

Strategic Culture Foundation 8 April 2021

All Global Research articles can be read in 51 languages by activating the “Translate Website” drop down menu on the top banner of our home page (Desktop version).

***

It hardly made the evening news, but the New York Times reported last week that after twenty years of fighting the Taliban are confident that they will fully control Afghanistan before too long whether or not the United States decides to leave some kind of residual force in the country after May 1st. The narrative is suggestive of The Mouse that Roared, lacking only Peter Sellers to put the finishing touches on what has to be considered a great humiliation for the U.S., which has a “defense” budget that is larger than the combined military spending of the next seven countries in order of magnitude. Those numbers include both Russia and China. The Taliban, on the other hand, have no military budget to speak of. That enormous disparity, un-reflected in who has won and lost, has to nurture concerns that it is the world’s only superpower, admittedly self-proclaimed, which is incapable of actually winning a war against anyone.

In fact, some recent wargaming has suggested that the United States would lose in a non-nuclear conflict with China alone based on the obsolescence of expensive and vulnerable weapons systems that the Pentagon relies upon, such as carrier groups. Nations like China, Iran and Russia that have invested in sophisticated and much cheaper missile systems to offset U.S. advantages have reportedly spent their money wisely. If the Biden foreign policy and military experts, largely embroiled in diversifying the country, choose to take on China, there may be no one left around to pick up the pieces.

Those who are warning of the apparent ineffectiveness of the U.S. armed forces in spite of their global presence in more than one thousand bases point most commonly to the historical record to make their case. Korea, fought under United Nations auspices, was a stalemate, with the peninsula divided to this day and a substantial American military force continuing to be a presence along the DMZ to enforce the armistice that not quite ended the war. Vietnam was a defeat, resulting in more than 58,000 Americans dead as well as an estimated 3 million Vietnamese, most of whom were civilians. The real lesson learned from Vietnam was that fighting on someone else’s turf where you have no real interests or stake in the outcome is a fool’s game, but the Pentagon instead worked to fix the mechanics in weapons and training at great cost without addressing why people fight wars in the first place. The other lesson was that the United States’ military was perfectly willing to lie to the country’s civilian leadership to expand the war and keep it going, a performance that was repeated in 2001 with the “Iraq is supporting terrorists and will have nuclear weapons” lies and also with the current crop of false analogies used to keep thousands of Americans in Afghanistan and the Middle East.

As a veteran of the Vietnam War army, I can recall sitting around with fellow enlisted men reading “Stars & Stripes,” the exclusive in-house-for-the-military newspaper that was covering the war. The paper quoted a senior officer who opined that the Soviets (as they were at that time) were really envious of the combat experience that the United States Army was obtaining in Vietnam. We all laughed. That same officer probably had a staff position away from the fighting but we draftees knew well that the war was a very bloody mistake while he may have tested his valor post-retirement working for Lockheed-Martin. The “Soviets” in any event demonstrated just how much they envied the experience of combat when they fought in Afghanistan in the 1980s, eventually withdrawing with their tails between their legs just as the U.S. had done in Vietnam after they lost 15,000 men. The “Grave of Empires,” indeed.History: Reversing the Vietnam Verdict

Since Vietnam there have been a number of small wars in places like Panama and Grenada, but the global war on terror has been a total disaster for American arms. Afghanistan, as it was for the Russians, is the ulcer that keeps on bleeding until it ends as a major defeat for the United States with the Taliban fully in control, as they are now predicting. Likewise, the destruction of a secular Iraq, regime change in Libya, and a continuing war against a non-threatening Syria have all failed to make Americans either safer or more prosperous. Iran is next, apparently, if the Joe Biden Administration has its way, and relations with major adversaries Russia and China have sunk even lower than they were during Donald Trump’s time as president. The White House has recently sent a shipload of offensive weapons to Kiev and the Ukrainian government has repeated its intention to retake Crimea from Russia, a formula for a new military disaster that could easily escalate into a major war. What is particularly regrettable is the fact that the United States has no compelling national interest in encouraging open warfare between Moscow and Kiev, a conflict that it will be unable to avoid as its is supplying Ukraine with weaponry.

There was almost no discussion of America’s wars during the recent election. One should take note, however, of a recent article by former Assistant Secretary of Defense Lawrence Korb that appeared on National Review which seeks to provide an explanation for “The Real Reason the U.S. Can’t Win Wars Anymore” in spite of the fact that it is “the most powerful country in the history of the world.” To be sure, Kolb largely blames the policymakers for the defeat in Vietnam, aided and abetted by a culture of silence in the military where many officers knew that the Gulf of Tonkin incident, which escalated the conflict, was a fraud but chose to say or do nothing. He also observes that the war itself was unwinnable for various reasons, including the observation by many working and middle class Americans that they were little more than cannon fodder while the country’s elites either dodged the draft or exploited their status to obtain national guard or reserve commissions that were known to be mechanism to avoid Vietnam. Kolb notes that “…the four most recent presidents who could have served in Vietnam avoided that war and the draft by dubious means. Bill Clinton pretended to join the Army ROTC; George W. Bush used political connections to get into the Air National Guard, when President Johnson made it clear that the reserve component would not be activated to fight the war; Donald Trump, of course, had his family physician claim he had bone spurs, (Trump himself cannot remember which foot); and Joe Biden claimed that the asthma he had in high school prevented him from serving even though he brags about his athletic exploits while in high school.”

Kolb also reveals how America’s presumed prowess on the battlefield has distorted its “democracy building” endeavors to such an extent that genuine national interests have been ignored. When the U.S. invaded Afghanistan, success in overthrowing the Taliban was derived from critical assistance from Iran, which correctly regarded the extremist Sunni group as an enemy. But the Bush White House, far from showing gratitude, soon thereafter added Iran to its “axis of evil” list. A golden opportunity was wasted to repair a relationship which has poisoned America’s presence in the Middle East ever since.

One might add something else to Kolb’s assessment of failure at war. Most American soldiers have been and are proud of their service and consider it an honor to defend their country but the key word is “defend.” There was no defending going on in Vietnam nor in Afghanistan, which did not attack the U.S. and was willing to turn over Osama Bin Laden if the White House could provide evidence that he was involved in 9/11. Nor was there anything defensive about Obama’s destruction of Libya and the decades long “secret” wars to overthrow the Syrian and Iranian governments. Soldiers are trained to fight and obey orders but that does not mean that they can no longer observe and think. Twenty years of “Reconstruction” duty in Afghanistan is not defending the United States and the morale of American soldiers in the combined Democratic and Republican Parties’ plan to reconstruct the world is not a sufficient motivator if one is being asked to put one’s life on the line. Sure, American soldiers can still win wars, but it has to be a real war where there is something genuine at stake, like protecting one’s home and family. That is what the people who run Washington, very few of whom are veterans and most of whom first ask “But what’s in it for me?” fail to understand.

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Philip M. Giraldi, Ph.D., is Executive Director of the Council for the National Interest, a 501(c)3 tax deductible educational foundation (Federal ID Number #52-1739023) that seeks a more interests-based U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. Website is https://councilforthenationalinterest.orgaddress is P.O. Box 2157, Purcellville VA 20134 and its email is inform@cnionline.org

He is a frequent contributor to Global Research.

The Iran-China pact is a huge blow for Western imperialists who want war in Asia (2/2)

Friday, 02 April 2021 5:44 PM  [ Last Update: Friday, 02 April 2021 5:44 PM ]

US Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) (L) talks with Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) during a rally with fellow Democrats before voting on H.R. 1, or the People Act, on the East Steps of the US Capitol on March 08, 2019 in Washington, DC. (AFP photo)
The Iran-China pact is a huge blow for Western imperialists who want war in Asia (2/2)
Ramin Mazaheri is the chief correspondent in Paris for Press TV and has lived in France since 2009. He has been a daily newspaper reporter in the US, and has reported from Iran, Cuba, Egypt, Tunisia, South Korea and elsewhere. He is the author of ‘Socialism’s Ignored Success: Iranian Islamic Socialism’ as well as ‘I’ll Ruin Everything You Are: Ending Western Propaganda on Red China’, which is also available in simplified and traditional Chinese.


By Ramin Mazaheri
and cross-posted with the Saker

In the first part of this article, titled Nixon ‘opened’ China, but only superpower China could ‘open’ Iran, I discussed the historic role reversal: it’s the position of the superpower China which now counts the most, and not the attitude of the United States.

The 25-year Iran-China pact is actually an undercounting as it is essentially — to quote China’s foreign minister — “permanent.” Western media foolishly sees Iran and China as different as apples and bowling balls, and thus they are only taking their first timid step towards understanding how Tehran and Beijing have already broken through the finish line tape.

It’s easy to examine the consternation of the BBC or The New York Times, but I thought it would be interesting to analyze the take of perhaps the top oil trade media, OilPrice, via their article The Iran-China Axis Is A Fast Growing Force In Oil Markets. Part one of this article addressed their take — more consternation, predictably — but it’s necessary to ask: why are even supposedly neutral, objective, rational and profit-oriented business media so bewildered and lost in their analyses of post-1979 Iran and post-1949 China?

The problem for them is that I may be able to grasp an argument based on economics and politics, but it’s hard for me to understand viewing historical developments solely via a lens of fear, paranoia and — above all — a zero-sum view of business, politics and human life. What OilPrice’s article ultimately relies on — like so many others of its ilk — is a hardened intolerance for other non-Western (some today may say “non-White”) cultures.

That type of a fundamentally-emotional and anti-intellectual mindset may motivate many pro-imperialists in Western high finance but they do not motivate Iran and China, two countries whose essentially socialist basis is light-years ahead of the tribalist “identity politics” foolishly held as the ultimate achievement of Western liberal democracy. 

This is not a knee-jerk “snowflake” argument — simply look at the starting point of OilPrice and I’m sure you’ll see it is not an unusual foundation for Western media analyses (regardless of the skin tone of the journalist) of Iran: The author immediately claimed in his very first paragraph that Iranians have a “radical view of non-believers,” which is such a radically right-wing view of Iran that it is barely worth an eye roll, much less serious consideration. All that needs to be said is that it’s possible that the author does not know any Christians or Jews, nor does the author have any sincere familiarity with these two fundaments of Islamic thought. Certainly, he has kept far away from Muslims because what he is describing is not anywhere close to the mainstream view held by Muslims in Iran or any other nation where Muslims practice. It’s also a scare tactic, certainly, but the author himself is seemingly scared out of his logic — this is not Iran’s or Islam’s fault, of course. 

But what kind of tolerance should be expected from this longtime oil man who, when he looks at the fabulous civilizations of Iran and China, sees only one thing: people who oppose the United States. For the author Iran and China are unmotivated by anything positive, human or redeeming, but instead solely by antipathy towards the United States. Yet whether one reads trade publications like OilPrice or broader Western business publications like The EconomistThe Financial Times or Les Echos, this arrogant, fearful and ultimately hostile ideology is blatantly repeated over and over.

Contrarily, Iranian and Chinese businessmen simply wonder why the West refuses to do mutually-beneficial, productive, long-term business? But good, fair business is not what capitalism is — capitalism’s surpluses primarily rely on the savings provided by imperialist plunder, and then the subsequent masking of this reality of stolen resources, stolen wages and thwarted lives and cultures with a tin mass media halo. This is not a radical view of “capitalism with Western characteristics,” but an increasingly accepted view even within the 21st century West.

And this is why it is not surprising that this article on Sino-Iranian bilateral relations takes a lengthy turn into fear mongering over a Chinese take-back of Taiwan. We must remember that this trade publication puts selling oil (at as high a price as possible) above all else — above fair politics, above tolerance of the cultures of other people, above fair business — therefore, OilPrice is always all-too happy to hysterically fearmonger if it can raise the price of oil a buck.

The article mentions the recent and shockingly historic first Joe Biden-era China-US bilateral summit, where China responded to unprecedented diplomatic insults with an unprecedented, lengthy and entirely correct defense of the modern triumvirate I referred to as the “Allies of Sovereignty” — Iran, China and Russia.

Referring to that momentous resetting is entirely correct, but what is not correct is how the author makes the totally spurious claim quite openly that China’s stockpiling of oil — an act which he acknowledged earlier was something that, “it just makes sense for it build inventories” — was actually in preparation for an invasion of Taiwan as early as 2025?

We need to remember when reading their “objective” analyses that this is just what Western business media does: war, for imperialist countries, is a major money-making industry and thus OilPrice and their money-grubbing brethren demonize, stoke fear and cheerlead for policies which are as violent, as expensive and as destructive as possible. Nothing personal — it’s just business media.

This is why readers should remember that the conclusions of such articles are always so predictable: “…the likelihood of some type of oil shortage is becoming increasingly likely,” i.e. the price of oil should be higher than what it is now — which is all that OilPrice really cares about — because geopolitically the world is “a tinder box, that only needs a spark”.

It really isn’t.

As a result of this mutually-beneficial deal China and Iran are way, way, way more stable for the next 25 years.

That’s a good thing, but Western business media is looking for profit and not for good things.

US Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) (L) talks with Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) during a rally with fellow Democrats before voting on H.R. 1, or the People Act, on the East Steps of the US Capitol on March 08, 2019 in Washington, DC. (AFP photo)

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif (R) elbow bumps with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi after the signing of a historic partnership agreement in Tehran on March 27, 2021. (Photo by Tasnim news agency)

Zarif: Iran-China deal based on win-win approach in pursuit of shared interests

 West’s weaponization of Iran-China deal to foment war has no chance of succeeding

Iran didn’t give up “too much” because they place their demand for sovereign independence over the best possible business deal — thus they simply must accept paying a premium. The “Allies of Sovereignty” is only three nations, after all. We’ve been living in a pro-globalization world for three decades, and the lack of civic pride makes Iran’s determination even more costly, monetarily.

China has established the indispensable node for its Belt and Road Initiative, from a foreign policy/foreign economic policy perspective, and from a domestic perspective it has assured itself enough energy independence to keep growing as it chooses for the next quarter century.

Is a mutual defense pact between the two next? Frankly, Iran doesn’t need it.

There is zero chance of another Western-orchestrated invasion of Iran, following the victory of the Sacred Defense against Iraq and its Western (and Soviet) axis. Iran has very basic military needs because they aren’t trying to invade anyone, after all. They have achieved military parity in the only arena which matters — its own borders — and a US invasion of Iran would be Vietnam on steroids. There have already been enormous nationwide “no war with Iran” protests in the US — after the assassination of Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani in 2020. 

Frankly, China doesn’t need it. Even if they did retake Taiwan the US would blink even faster than they did with Syria. Anyway, the international community has clearly sided with China since 1971 — Taiwan is not a country, nor are they in the United Nations, nor can they even join any UN sub-organizations. Taiwan is a province of China, even if the US thinks it is like the Cuban exile parts of southern Florida — i.e., a permanent place for fascists who lost their civil war to congregate and plot to stall political modernity and peace. Fearmongering about bloody invasion is just a way to sell more guns and oil, and now also a way to distract from this Sino-Iranian victory. It’s absurd: since WWII the West has lost in North Korea, Vietnam, Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria but mighty China should be worried?

The pact is what it openly claims it is: a multi-decade diplomatic, military and economic pact of peaceful cooperation. So on its own, it promotes peace. And indirectly, the pact is a major step towards peace and security for the world — from Western aggression. Take on one and you inevitably take on the other, and taking on either would lead to disaster for the Western aggressors. The world can’t allow that, and the world can only embrace the peacemaking Iran-China deal.

China’s “opening” of Iran is historically significant in so many ways to count, including the peaceful stability it helps ensure for the world via drawing two ethnically and religiously different parts of Asia closer together: As I detailed in Part 1 of this article, it is so very excitingly “woke” and modern. In broader terms of human history, its greatest significance is: it’s a victory for socialist democracy and a huge, glaring failure for liberal democracy.

The JCPOA on Iran’s nuclear energy program would never have stopped this Iran-China alliance — Iran would never go fully into the Western camp for at least as long as the rest of the Muslim world is under the West’s thumb — but it could have at least partially counterbalanced it. Now the West is in an even worse bargaining position than before, but who wants the terrible preconditions the West demands for cooperation, and then who even expects the West to actually keep their word? They don’t do diplomacy – they do international piracy, still.

Iran waited a very long time to pick a camp, and yet they have still retained an amount of independence which almost no other nation its size can dream of today. However, as always, to write that China is being welcomed as saviors or without skepticism by Iranians would be a hilarious overstatement. What Iranians cherish most is their independence, and this is enshrined in its political and economic structures post-1979.

Iranian civil servants have chosen a wise path, and it can never be said that they did not genuinely offer the West a diplomatic path. Now their duty is to properly administer the bounty of this cooperation in a way which the Iranian people approve of. The Iranian media will be watching closely, as always.

China’s “opening” of Iran isn’t a threat to Iran, to China nor to any other non- or anti-imperialist nation. It’s only a threat to those who idealize an aristocratic past, or a soulless and ineffectual technocratic present, and to those who insist that Iran and China revert to being as unstable, despondent and unpeaceful as they were prior to their modern, socialist-inspired revolutions. 

To such offers Iran and China have permanently responded: “No deal.”

Lastly, this article repeatedly stressed the incredibly animating ideological components at play in this historic international decision. It’s a shame that so many analysts completely disregard modern mankind’s longstanding ideological debates about capitalist or socialist economic practice, the cultural effects of imperialism, and what should be truly classified as “progressive” or “reactionary” politics. There isn’t a new international order, but there is clearly a second international order now on offer — it should be openly compared and contrasted.

(The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of Press TV.)


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Terrorism Industry : America is preparing Adel Abdel Bari to succeed Al-Zawahiri صناعة الإرهاب: أميركا تحضّر عادل عبد الباري خلفاً للظواهري!؟

*Please scroll down for the English Machine translation**

صناعة الإرهاب: أميركا تحضّر عادل عبد الباري خلفاً للظواهري!؟

باريس – نضال حمادة

عادل عبد الباري أحد أقرب مساعدي زعيم تنظيم القاعدة أسامة بن لادن والمتهم بتفجير سفارتي الولايات المتحدة في نيروبي ودار السلام والذي كان مسجوناً في الولايات المتحدة، حرّ طليق منذ يومين، بعد أن أطلقت السلطات الأميركية سراحه وغادر الى بريطانيا التي يحمل جنسيتها حيث التحق بعائلته هناك من دون أية مشاكل. وقد فرزت السلطات البريطانية دورية من الشرطة للسهر على أمنه وحراسته.

حجة أميركا التي برّرت بها إطلاق سراح المتحدث باسم تنظيم القاعدة أنه زاد في السمنة وقد يُصاب بوباء كورونا، وبالتالي حفاظاً على صحته وحياته تمّ إطلاق سراحه.

أميركا التي دمّرت نصف العالم العربي والإسلامي وقتلت ملايين البشر حول العالم، خصوصاً من العرب والمسلمين بحجة الإرهاب، واحتلت أفغانستان والعراق ودمّرت ليبيا وتشنّ حرباً ضروساً على سورية بحجة ملاحقة التنظيمات والعناصر الإرهابية، خصوصاً عناصر تنظيم القاعدة ، تفرج عن المتحدث باسم تنظيم القاعدة في وقت تظهر فيه إشارات وعلامات تشبه ما حصل بعد مقتل أسامة بن لادن قبل 11 عاماً، حيث حصل ظهور تنظيم الدولة داعش وبرزت عشرات التنظيمات والأمراء الجهاديون على جثة بن لادن، وهؤلاء كانوا أكثر من خدم السياسة الأميركيّة في المنطقة منذ الجهاد الأفغاني في ثمانينيّات القرن الماضي.

أميركا هذه تعيد الكرة الآن بعد اختفاء الظواهري، واختفاء تنظيم داعش بنسخته الأولى، وبدء ظهور النسخة الجديدة في مناطق البادية السورية الممتدّة نحو قاعدة التنف المحتلة من قبل أميركا في تلك البادية فضلاً عن عودة خلايا داعش الى الحدود العراقية السورية بعدما أمّنت لها الطائرات الأميركية الأرض بعمليات القصف المتواصل والدوري على مواقع ودوريات ومراكز الحشد الشعبي غرب العراق.

من هنا يمكن ملاحظة خروج عادل عبد الباري بعدما تأكد الأميركيون من موت الظواهري على ما يبدو، وكان موقع تابع لتنظيم حراس الدين في الشمال السوري قد أعلن قبل أيام عدة عن انقطاع الاتصال بين حراس الدين والظواهري قبل أن يحذف التغريدة، فهل تمّ إطلاق سراح القيادي المصري في تنظيم القاعدة ليحلّ مكان القيادي المصري الذي توفي…؟

علّمتنا التجارب أنّ الأميركي خبر هذا الجماعات التكفيرية المحاربة التي ما زالت في خدمته منذ حرب السوفيات في أفغانستان حتى الحرب في الشرق السوري حالياً…

Terrorism Industry : America is preparing Adel Abdel Bari to succeed Al-Zawahiri


Paris – Nidal Hamada

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Adel Abdul-Bari, one of the closest aides to al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, who is accused of bombing the US embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam, who was imprisoned in the United States, was free two days ago, where left for Britain and joined his family without any problems. British authorities have sorted out a police patrol to ensure his security and security.

America’s argument that justified the release of the Al-Qaeda spokesman is that he has become more obese and may be infected with the Corona epidemic, and thus, in order to preserve his health and life, he was released.

America, which destroyed half of the Arab and Muslim world and killed millions of people around the world, especially Arabs and Muslims under the pretext of terrorism, occupied Afghanistan and Iraq, destroyed Libya and waged a fierce war on Syria under the pretext of pursuing terrorist organizations and elements, especially Al-Qaeda elements. The release of the spokesman of Al Qaeda spokesman is similar to what happened after the killing of Osama bin Laden 11 years ago, after serving U.S. policy in the region since the Afghan Jihad in the 1980s, when ISIS emerged, and dozens of jihadist organizations and princes emerged on bin Laden’s body,

The United States is now returning the ball after the disappearance of al-Zawahiri, and ISIS in its first version, and the emergence of the new version in the Syrian desert extending towards al-Tanf occupied by America , as well as the return of ISIS cells to the Iraqi-Syrian border after U.S. aircraft supported by periodic American bombarding the positions of popular Mobilisation Popular force in western Iraq.

The release of Adel Abdel Bari, after the American’s confirmation the death of al-Zawahiri’s, can be seen as replacement al-Zawahiri, a site affiliated with the Guardians of Religion Organization in northern Syria announcing several days ago that communication between Hurras al-Din and Al-Zawahiri had been cut off, before the tweet was deleted.

Experience has taught us that takfirist fighting groups have been at US service since the Soviet war in Afghanistan until the war in eastern Syria today…

«حماة القَسَم» وأخواتها بين «غزوة الكاپيتول» والحرب العالميّة الثالثة!

 محمد صادق الحسيني

لا شكّ في أنّ الازمة العميقة، التي تعاني منها الولايات المتحدة الأميركية، في السنوات الأخيرة، أو بالأحرى في السنتين الأخيرتين، ليست ناجمة فقط عن السياسات الهوجاء، التي مارسها ترامب، في الداخل وفِي الخارج، بل إنها أزمة بنيويّة تهدّد السلم الاجتماعي، في الولايات المتحدة الأميركية، وكذلك السلم الدوليّ، على الصعيد العالمي كله.

أما السبب في ذلك فيعود إلى أنّ الأزمة الاقتصادية، بشكل خاص، هي التربة الخصبة، التي تنمو فيها العناصر والتيارات الفاشيّة والنازية، وما نمو وتطوّر الفاشية في إيطاليا قبل حوالي مئة عام والنازية في ألمانيا، في الفترة نفسها تقريباً إلا مثال ليس ببعيد زمنياً. حيث شكلت نتائج الحرب العالمية الأولى، على الصعيد الاقتصادي والسياسي والاجتماعي في ألمانيا بشكل خاص، الأرضية الملائمة لنمو التيارات اليمينيّة المتطرفة، ومنها الحزب النازي، بزعامة أدولف هتلر.

ومن أهمّ الظروف الاقتصادية، التي ساعدت على تطور هذا الحزب، واستيلائه على السلطة في ما بعد، موجة الفقر، التي اجتاحت البلاد آنذاك، وما نجم عن ذلك من قدرة عالية لاستقطاب ملايين الشباب، من قبل الحزب النازي. حيث تمكن أدولف هتلر من إنشاء ميليشيات مسلحة، من جنود الجيش الألماني المهزوم في الحرب العالمية الاولى، بلغ عديدها سنة ١٩٢٣ أربعة ملايين فرد، كانوا منضوين تحت راية: السرب الهجوميّ / أو ما يسمّى باللغة الالمانية (شتورم شتافِل ) وتختصر بحرفي أس أس ـ والتي بقيت قائمة حتى نهاية الحرب العالميه الثانية.

ـ وحدة الاقتحام، التي تسمّى باللغة الألمانية: ، ويُطلق عليها اختصاراً. اسم: أس ايه وهي عبارة عن ميليشيا مسلحة انطلق تشكيلها منذ عام 1920 بالضبط، وبقيت قوة فاعلة في الجيوش النازية حتى نهاية الحرب العالميه الثانية.

اذن فإنّ السبب الرئيسي، لظهور هذه الميليشيات الألمانية المسلحة، تمثل في الخسائر المادية والبشرية الكبرى، التي تعرّضت لها ألمانيا خلال الحرب، وما تبعها من موجة فقر اجتاحت البلاد. وهذه الظروف، مع مراعاة خصوصيات كلّ دولة من الدول التي يجري الحديث عنها، هي بالضبط الظروف التي تمرّ بها الولايات المتحده الأميركية، منذ بداية عهد الرئيس ترامب حتى الآن.

إذ أشعلت الولايات المتحدة سلسلة حروب، في أفغانستان والعراق وسورية واليمن وغيرها من أنحاء العالم، منذ بداية تسعينيات القرن الماضي وحتى يومنا هذا، أسفرت عما يلي:

أ ـ خسائر مالية هائلة كلفت الخزانة الأميركية تريليونات الدولارات.

ب ـ اضطرار الحكومه الأميركية للجوء الى وسيلة ضخ المزيد من الأوراق النقدية الأميركية، من دون وجود ما يقابلها في القيمة من الإنتاج المحلي، وما ترتب عن ذلك من اضطرابات في أسواق المال والأسواق الاستهلاكيّة الأميركيّة، وتأثير ذلك على المواطن العادي، خاصة في مجال انخفاض القدرة الشرائية.

ج ـ هدر الحكومة الأميركية، لكلّ تلك الموارد المالية، لتمويل حروبها ومراكمة أرباح شركات الصناعات الحربية، أدّى إلى نقص كبير في تمويل البنى التحتية والبنى المعرفية وبالتالي التطوير التكنولوجي والصناعي في الولايات المتحدة الأميركية.

د ـ أسفر ذلك عن تطوّر معرفي وعلمي وتكنولوجي هائل، ولأسباب عديدة أخرى طبعاً، في العديد من الدول، على رأسها الصين الشعبية، التي أصبحت المنافس الأول للولايات المتحدة، على كلّ الأصعدة، وبالتالي فقد بدأت واشنطن تتعامل معها على اعتبار أنها هي العدو الأول لواشنطن. وهو الأمر الذي عبّرت عنه وزارة الخارجية الأميركية، قبل ثلاثة أيام، في تصريح لها حدّد أنّ الصين الشعبية وروسيا وإيران وكوريا الشمالية وكوبا هي دول عدوة للولايات المتحدة الأميركية.

هـ ـ أما القشة التي قصمت ظهر البعير فكانت جائحة كورونا، التي كلفت ولا تزال تكلف الاقتصاد الأميركي أرقاماً فلكيةً من مليارات الدولارات، إضافة الى الخسائر البشرية التي تجاوزت الأربعة آلاف وفاة يومياً. وهي خسائر بشرية لم تتعرّض لها الولايات المتحدة ولا في أيّ من الحروب التي خاضتها عبر تاريخها، لا بل إنها تفوق تلك الخسائر مجتمعة.

إذن فإنّ ظروف الانفجار، الذي نشهده في واشنطن، كانت جاهزةً تماماً، وانّ خطاب دونالد ترامب العنصري التحريضي، والبعيد عن قواعد السياسة والاقتصاد (فرض الضرائب والعقوبات على الخصوم)، قد أدّى الى ما تشهده الولايات المتحدة من خطر فقدان أجهزة الدولة للسيطرة على الأمن وانتشار الفوضى، وربما أكثر من ذلك، في كلّ الولايات المتحدة، خاصة أنّ حالة انتشار السلاح في الولايات المتحدة هي حالة عامة، يضمنها الدستور الأميركي.

لكن الانقسام العمودي في المجتمع، الذي أسفرت عنه الانتخابات الأميركيّة الأخيرة، والتحريض المستمرّ من قبل ترامب، لأنصاره البالغ عددهم حوالي خمسةً وسبعين مليون أميركي، مع وجود تشكيلات مسلحة ومنظمة، أيّ ميليشيات، تعتبر ترامب هو المخلص وتتصرّف بناء على توجيهاته التحريضية، تجعل من تلك المنظمات المسلحة لا تختلف كثيراً عن تلك المنظمات الألمانية، التي أسهمت بشكل أساسي في إيصال ادولف هتلر إلى سدة الحكم.

ومن المعلوم أنّ أهمّ تلك التنظيمات الأميركية المسلحة، التي تأتمر بأوامر دونالد ترامب هي التالية:

1

ـ منظمة حماة القَسَم. والتي تسمى بالانجليزية: ، والتي يبلغ عدد أفرادها حوالي 35 ألف فرد، وقد تأسّست سنة 2009 من قبل الضابط المظلي السابق، إِلمَرتْ ستيوارت روديس ، الذي عمل مساعداً لعضو مجلس الشيوخ الأميركي، رون پول سابقاً، ومعظم، إنْ لم يكن جميع اعضائها، هم جنود وضباط أميركيون سابقون، من مختلف صنوف القوات المسلحة الأميركية، الى جانب جنود وضباط سابقين من قوات المظلات والقوات الخاصة الأميركية، وعناصر من الشرطة الأميركية. الأمر الذي يجعل هذه المنظمة أشبه بجيش منظم، له قيادة عامة وهيئة أركان وجميع المقوّمات الأخرى في الجيش النظامي، كاللباس العسكري الموحّد، وأقسام الإمداد والتزويد الى أقسام الاستخبارات والرصد والحرب الإلكترونية وغير ذلك.

وهذا ما تؤكده أحداث «غزوة الكونغرس» التي حصلت بتاريخ 6/1/2012، والتي أوضحت انّ الجموع، التي اجتاحت الكونغرس، كانت جموعاً منظمة وتُحرَّك بناءً على خطة موحدة، وتدار من قبل غرفة عمليات موحّدة، تبيّن انّ ترامب نفسه هو الذي كان يديرها من داخل البيت الأبيض.

علماً أنّ مراسل صحيفة ذي اتلانتيك ، السيد مايك كيليو، كان قد نشر حديثاً مع عناصر من هذه المنظمة، في شهر 10/2020، أعربوا خلاله عن دعمهم للرئيس ترامب.

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ـ منظمة كيو أَنون وهي منظمة تتبنى نظرية المؤامره وتمّ تأسيسها سنة 2017، وهي تعتبر انّ هناك قيادة خفية، أو قوى خفية، تتحكم بالولايات المتحدة، وعلى رأس هذه القوى هيلاري كلينتون وباراك أوباما والملياردير الأميركي جورج سورس، وإنه يجب التخلص من هذه القيادة الخفية.

علماً أنّ ترامب تبنى الكثير من طروحاتهم، التي نشرت على وسائل التواصل الاجتماعي، كما تبنى 60 مرشحاً جمهورياً، لانتخابات مجلس الشيوخ الأميركي تلك الطروحات، وفقاً لما افاد به موقع ميديا ماترز  الأميركي. بينما قامت الشرطة الاتحادية الأميركية بتصنيف هذه المنظمة منظمة «خطر إرهاب داخلي»، خاصة بعد ان قام أحد أعضاء هذه العصابة، وهو ماتِيو فيليب رايت، بتاريخ 15/6/2018 الذي أوقف عربته المدرّعة والمسلحة بالرشاشات الثقيلة على جسر رئيسي، لمدة 90 دقيقة ما أدى إلى تعطيل حركة السير على طريق اوتوستراد رئيسي في الولاية، وذلك بالقرب من سد هوڤِر ، الواقع قرب أحد أنهر ولاية كولورادو.

ومن الجدير بالذكر أيضاً ان لهذه الحركة أتباعاً او أشخاصاً يحملون نظرية المؤامرة نفسها في الدول الأوروبية، وهم الذين يديرون حركة الاحتجاجات الشعبية على إجراءات الحكومات الأوروبية الوقائية ضد كورونا. ومن ابرز قيادات هذه الحركة في أوروبا:

المغني الالماني كساڤيير نايدو .

مؤلف كتب الطبخ الالماني أيضاً أتيلا هيلدمان

ولعل من المفيد أيضاً الإشارة الى التصريح، الذي ادلى به السيناتور الجمهوري، عن ولاية نيبراسكا، بن ساسّي ، وقال فيه إن حرمة كيو أنون تعمل على تدمير الحزب الجمهوري. وفِي هذا إشارة، حسب تقديرنا، الى ان هذه التنظيمات التي يدعمها ترامب والمعادية للمؤسسة الأميركية ولكل المؤسسات / الدول / تعمل على تدمير ما هو قائم من نظم سياسية في الغرب، لإفساح المجال لقيام أنظمة نازية أو فاشية جديدة. وذلك كما حصل في المانيا، بعد هزيمتها في الحرب العالمية الاولى واعلان قيام جمهورية ڤايمَربتاريخ 9/11/1918 والتي استمرت حتى تسلم الحزب النازي الألماني، بزعامة أدولف هتلر، الحكم في البلاد، عن طريق انتخابات برلمانية، بتاريخ 30/1/1933.

فهل سيتمكن الرئيس الأميركي الجديد من إنقاذ الولايات المتحدة من هذا الخطر الداهم، أي خطر ان تكون فترته الرئاسية فترة حضانة للمجموعات الإرهابية، الكثيرة العدد والاتجاهات، في الولايات المتحدة، ما يفتح الطريق على احتمالين هما:

تفكك البلاد وانتشار الفوضى في جميع ولاياتها.

قيام نظام حكم «نازي جديد» يجر البلاد الى حرب عالمية، كما فعل النظام النازي الألماني في نهاية ثلاثينيات القرن الماضي.

نطرح هذه التساؤلات ليس فقط في ظلّ ما اطلق عليه اسم «غزوة الكونغرس»، وانما في ظلّ وجود عدد كبير من التنظيمات اليمينية المتطرفة والعنصرية، فعلاوة على تنظيم «حماة القسم   المسلحة، ومنظمة ، لا بدّ من الإشارة الى عدد من تلك التنظيمات ومستوى خطورتها، والمصنفة، من قبل أجهزة مكافحة الإرهاب الأميركية، على النحو التالي:

منظمات إرهابية محلية (أميركية)

منظمة ألفا

جبهة تحرير الحيوانات .

جيش الله (الولايات المتحدة) ).

آريان نيشينز (الامم الآرية)

جبهة تحرير الأرض .

رابطة الدفاع اليهودية

كو كلوكس كلان Ku Klux Klan.

منظمة إم إيه جي إيه M. A. G. A.

منظمة فينيياس بريستهود . منظمة أَتوم ڤافِن ديڤيسيون ، وهي تسمية ألمانية وتعني: فرقة الأسلحة النووية. كما تسمّى أيضاً: منظمة النظام الاشتراكي الوطني National Socialist Order.

مع العلم انّ هذه التنظيمات وغيرها، قد نفذت العديد من الاعتداءات المختلفة، حسب التصنيفات الأميركية، منذ تاريخ 21/5/1856 وحتى تاريخ 6/1/2921، أي تاريخ اجتياح الكونغرس، وهي العملية التي تسمّى في المصطلحات السياسية الأميركية: الهجوم على الكابيتول

وفِي الختام، لا بدّ من الإشارة الى انّ الولايات المتحدة الأميركية لا تنقصها الأجهزة الأمنية، المتخصصة بمكافحة الإرهاب. إذ انّ لديها 36 جهازاً فيدرالياً مختلفاً لهذا الغرض، تتبع لوزارة الخارجيه والدفاع والعدل والخزانة والأمن الوطني وغيرها من الهيئات الفدرالية. وهذا يعني أن ما يحتاجه جو بايدن هو فقط اتخاذ القرار السياسي المناسب،

لإنقاذ البلاد والعباد، من أخطار الانزلاق اما الى

فوضى داخلية شاملة او حرب عالمية مدمرة.

هنا ينتهي التحليل السياسي، اما اذا نظرنا الى الأعمق من البنية السياسية وذهبنا الى التشكيل البنيوي الفكري لأميركا، فإن بذور تصدعها وانهيارها ربما تكون أقوى من السياسة باعتبار ان هذه الدولة اساساً قامت على الفكرة «الاسرائيلية» الهدامة للكيان الأميركي نفسه والمؤلفة من العناصر التالية:

ـ المعنى «الإسرائيلي» لاميركا.

ـ عقيدة الاختيار الإلهي والتفوق العرقي والثقافي.

ـ الدور الخلاصي للعالم.

ـ قدرية التوسع اللانهائي.

ـ حق التضحية بالآخر.

عندها لن يكون هناك فرق بين ترامب وبايدن، ويصبحان وجهين لعملة واحدة، يسيران سوية باتجاه نهاية أميركا وخلاص العالم من الشيطان الأكبر.

بعدنا طيّبين قولوا الله…

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US hits Search and Destroy against the New Silk Roads

US hits Search and Destroy against the New Silk Roads

December 09, 2020

By Pepe Escobar posted with permission and first posted at Asia Times.

Seven years after being launched by President Xi Jinping, first in Astana and then in Jakarta, the New Silk Roads, or Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) increasingly drive the American plutocratic oligarchy completely nuts.

The relentless paranoia about the Chinese “threat” has much to do with the exit ramp offered by Beijing to a Global South permanently indebted to IMF/World Bank exploitation.

In the old order, politico-military elites were routinely bribed in exchange for unfettered corporate access to their nations’ resources, coupled with go-go privatization schemes and outright austerity (“structural adjustment”).

This went on for decades until BRI became the new game in town in terms of infrastructure building – offering an alternative to the imperial footprint.

The Chinese model allows all manner of parallel taxes, sales, rents, leases – and profits. This means extra sources of income for host governments – with an important corollary: freedom from the hardcore neoliberal diktats of IMF/World Bank. This is what is at the heart of the notorious Chinese “win-win”.

Moreover, BRI’s overall strategic focus on infrastructure development not only across Eurasia but also Africa encompasses a major geopolitical game-changer. BRI is positioning vast swathes of the Global South to become completely independent from the Western-imposed debt trap. For scores of nations, this is a matter of national interest. In this sense BRI should be regarded as the ultimate post-colonialist mechanism.

BRI in fact bristles with Sun Tzu simplicity applied to geoeconomics. Never interrupt the enemy when he’s making a mistake – in this case enslaving the Global South via perpetual debt. Then use his own weapons – in this case financial “help” – to destabilize his preeminence.

Hit the road with the Mongols

None of the above, of course, is bound to serenade the paranoid volcano, which will keep spitting out a 24/7 deluge of red alerts deriding BRI as “poorly defined, badly mismanaged and visibly failing”. “Visibly”, of course, only for the exceptionalists.

Predictably, the paranoid volcano feeds on a toxic mix of arrogance and crass ignorance of Chinese history and culture.

Xue Li, director of the Department of International Strategy at the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, has shown how “after the Belt and Road Initiative was proposed in 2013, China’s diplomacy has changed from maintaining a low profile to becoming more proactive in global affairs. But the policy of ‘partnership rather than alliance’ has not changed, and it is unlikely to change in the future. The indisputable fact is that the system of alliance diplomacy preferred by Western countries is the choice of a few countries in the world, and most countries choose non-aligned diplomacy. Besides, the vast majority of them are developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America.”

Atlanticists are desperate because the “system of alliance diplomacy” is on the wane. The overwhelming majority of the Global South is now being reconfigured as a newly energized Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) – as if Beijing had found a way to revive the Spirit of Bandung in 1955.

Chinese scholars are fond of quoting a 13th century imperial handbook, according to which policy changes should be “beneficial for the people”. If they only benefit corrupt officials, the result is luan (“chaos”). Thus the 21st century Chinese emphasis on pragmatic policy instead of ideology.

Rivaling informed parallels with the Tang and Ming dynasties, it’s actually the Yuan dynasty that offers a fascinating introduction to the inner workings of BRI.

So let’s go for a short trip back to the 13th century, when Genghis Khan’s immense empire was replaced by four khanates.

We had the Khanate of the Great Khan – which turned into the Yuan dynasty – ruling over China, Mongolia, Tibet, Korea and Manchuria.

We had the Ilkhanate, founded by Hulagu (the conqueror of Baghdad) ruling Iran, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, parts of Anatolia and the Caucasus.

We had the Golden Horde ruling the northwestern Eurasian steppe, from eastern Hungary to Siberia, and most of all the Russian principalities.

And we had the Chaghadaid Khanate (named after Genghis Khan’s second son) ruling Central Asia, from eastern Xinjiang to Uzbekistan, until Tamerlane’s rise to power in 1370.

This era saw an enormous acceleration of trade along the Mongol Silk Roads.

All these Mongol-controlled governments privileged local and international commerce. That translated into a boom in markets, taxes, profits – and prestige. The khanates competed to get the best trading minds. They laid out the necessary infrastructure for transcontinental travel (13th century BRI, anyone?) And they opened the way for multiple East-West, trans-civilizational exchanges.

When the Mongols conquered the Song in southern China they even expanded overland Silk Roads trade into Maritime Silk Roads. The Yuan dynasty was now controlling China’s powerful southern ports. So when there was any kind of turbulence overland, trade switched to the seas.

The key axes were through the Indian Ocean, between south China and India, and between India and the Persian Gulf or the Red Sea.

Cargo was traveling overland to Iran, Iraq, Anatolia and Europe; by sea, through Egypt and the Mediterranean, to Europe; and from Aden to east Africa.

A slave trade maritime route between the Golden Horde’s ports on the Black Sea and Egypt – run by Muslim, Italian and Byzantine traders – was also in effect. The Black Sea ports transited luxury merchandise arriving overland from the East. And caravans traveled inland from the Indian coast during dangerous monsoon seasons.

This frantic commercial activity was the proto-BRI, which reached its apex in the 1320s and 1330s all the way to the collapse of the Yuan dynasty in 1368 in parallel to the Black Death in Europe and the Middle East. The key point: all the overland and maritime roads were interlinked. 21st century BRI planners benefit from a long historical memory.

“Nothing will fundamentally change”

Now compare this wealth of trade and cultural interchange with the pedestrian, provincial, anti-BRI and overall anti-China paranoia in the US. What we get is the State Dept. under exiting Mike “We Lie, We Cheat, We Steal” Pompeo issuing a paltry diatribe on the “China challenge”. Or the US Navy recommissioning the First Fleet, probably to be based in Perth, to “have an Indo-Pac footprint” and thus maintain “maritime dominance in an era of great power competition”.

More ominously, here is a summary of the humongous, 4,517-page, $740.5 billion National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) 2021, just approved by the House by 335 to 78 (Trump threatened to veto it).

This is about funding for the Pentagon next year – to be supervised in theory by the new Raytheon General, Lloyd Austin, the last “commanding General” of the US in Iraq who run CENTCOM from 2013 to 2016 and then retired for some juicy revolving door gigs such as the board of Raytheon and crucially, the board of ultra-toxic air, water, soil polluter Nucor.

Austin is a revolving door character who supported the war on Iraq, the destruction of Libya, and supervised the training of Syrian “moderate rebels” – a.k.a. recycled al-Qaeda – who killed countless Syrian civilians.

The NDAA, predictably, is heavy on “tools to deter China”.

That will include:

1. A so-called “Pacific Deterrence Initiative (PDI), code for containment of China in the Indo-Pacific by boosting the Quad.

2. Massive counter-intel operations.

3. An offensive against “debt diplomacy”. That’s nonsense: BRI deals are voluntary, on a win-win basis, and open to renegotiation. Global South nations privilege them because loans are low-interest and long-term.

4. Restructuring global supply chains which lead to the US. Good luck with that. Sanctions on China will remain in place.

5. Across the board pressure forcing nations not to use Huawei 5G.

6. Reinforcing Hong Kong and Taiwan as Trojan Horses to destabilize China.

Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe has already set the tone: “Beijing intends to dominate the US and the rest of the planet economically, militarily and technologically”. Be afraid, very much afraid of the evil Chinese Communist Party, “the greatest threat to democracy and freedom worldwide since World War II”.

There you go: Xi is the new Hitler.

So nothing will fundamentally change after January 2021 – as officially promised by Biden-Harris: it’s gonna be Hybrid War on China all over again, deployed all over the spectrum, as Beijing has perfectly understood.

So what? China’s industrial production will continue to grow while in the US it will continue to decline. There will be more breakthroughs by Chinese scientists such as the photonic quantum computing – which performed 2.6 billion years of computation in 4 minutes. And the 13th century Yuan dynasty spirit will keep inspiring BRI.

Biden doesn’t have the luxury of time. بايدن لا يملك ترف الوقت

Biden doesn’t have the luxury of time.

Nasser Qandil

Despite outgoing U.S. President Donald Trump’s attempt to recall his election victory, there is no one in America or the world that treats Trump as a waste of time in U.S. and international political life, and Americans are preparing to meet President-elect Joe Biden as Washington’s friends and foes prepare for this stage.

– Some of those involved in the U.S. hegemony project imagine that the options are open to Biden, whether intellectually attached to the position of ideological and hostile commitment to everything that is liberating in the world, or politically from the position of their bets on the American role as a lever for projects that reaped failure after failure with the change of American covenants from George Bush to Barack Obama to Donald Trump, and these projects fell in Syria, Iraq, Palestine, Yemen and Lebanon, or existentially, as is the case for those who went in escalation to where there is no return, especially in the Gulf and the occupation entity, and they fear any US retreat and its repercussions on the balance of the region and the emergence of new equations.

– Biden has no luxury of options, after Trump’s choices have reached its limit in four years and her limited ability to produce new balances, despite their brutality, bringing ruin and relying on starvation. The settlement is to open a new page with the forces that Trump fought his war against, a page recognising the facts and facts on ground confirming the balance of deterrence despite assassinations and mobilisation of fleets. Does Biden have the ability to go to war, and if this is not the only option, the only alternative is to return to the logic of compromise, which Obama and Biden discovered as the only option, the nuclear understanding with Iran came as the product of this inevitability, and constitutes a return to understanding a first translation of the stability of this imperative.

– Biden has no luxury of selectivity, in selecting the destination of the resolution of choice, whether it is war or compromise, and as long as it is a compromise, what Biden does as a veteran of international politics, and teaches him with his team, which has enough experience, that nuclear understanding with Iran is the centrepiece of Trump’s withdrawal from nuclear understanding is the source of division between Washington and its European allies, and the division has torn NATO apart, and withdrawal from nuclear understanding is the source of the rift with Russia and China turning into an open confrontation. As long as the philosophy of exit from understanding is based on the abolition of liabilities, the destruction of international agreements and conventions and the obligations they impose, and the return to understanding, the international institutions are restored from the institution represented by the United Nations to the IAEA.

– Biden and his team also realize that they don’t have the luxury of time, what Trump did was enough to create a vain skepticism of understandings with Washington, produce an angry public opinion waiting for revenge for crimes, monetization of excess power to impose new equations, and future benefits in Iran will make time in place, in six months Iran will choose a new president, and entitlement will be an answer to the U.S. policies represented by Biden, and this time it will be to stay under the roof of nuclear understanding and its obligations at stake, as noted by the decision of the Iranian Shura Council, which decided to suspend these commitments..

Biden’s future is at stake, with the future of nuclear understanding,. and the future of many equations in the region and the world.

بايدن لا يملك ترف الوقت

ناصر قنديل

رغم محاولة الرئيس الأميركي المنتهية ولايته دونالد ترامب العودة الى التذكير بفوزه بالانتخابات، فليس هناك أحد في أميركا ولا في العالم يتعامل مع ترامب إلا بصفته مرحلة زائلة من الحياة السياسية الأميركية والدولية، وقد بدأ الأميركيون في ظل المرحلة الانتقالية يستعدون لملاقاة تسلم الرئيس المنتخب جو بايدن مقاليد السلطة، فيما العالم من أصدقاء واشنطن وخصومها يستعد لهذه المرحلة.

يتخيل البعض من المتعلقين بمشروع الهيمنة الأميركية أن الخيارات مفتوحة أمام بايدن، سواء كان تعلق هؤلاء فكرياً من موقع الإلتزام العقائدي والعدائي لكل ما هو تحرري في العالم، أو سياسياً من موقع رهاناتهم على الدور الأميركي كرافعة لمشاريع حصدت الفشل تلو الفشل مع تغير العهود الأميركية من جورج بوش الى باراك أوباما الى دونالد ترامب، وسقطت هذه المشاريع في سورية والعراق وفلسطين واليمن ولبنان، او وجودياً، كحال الذين ذهبوا في التصعيد الى حيث لا رجعة خصوصاً في الخليج وكيان الاحتلال، ويخشون أي انكفاء أميركي وانعكاساته على موازين المنطقة ونشوء معادلات جديدة.

ليس أمام بايدن ترف الخيارات، بعدما بلغت خيارات ترامب سقفها خلال أربع سنوات وظهرت محدودية قدرتها على إنتاج توازنات جديدة، رغم وحشيتها وجلبها للخراب واستنادها الى التجويع، وبلغت الأمور حداً صارت فيه الخيارات ضيقة، بين الذهاب للحرب أو الذهاب للتسوية. والتسوية هي فتح صفحة جديدة مع القوى التي خاض ترامب حربه ضدها، صفحة الاعتراف بالوقائع والحقائق التي أنتجتها المواجهة، والتي تقول بأن التوازنات لم تتغيّر رغم الحصار والجوع، وأن المعادلات لم تتبدّل رغم الاغتيالات وحشد الأساطيل، فهل يملك بايدن قدرة الذهاب للحرب، وإن لم يكن هذا هو الخيار فالبديل الوحيد هو العودة لمنطق التسوية، الذي اكتشف ثنائي أوباما وبادين أنه خيار وحيد، وجاء التفاهم النووي مع إيران نتاج هذه الحتمية، وتشكل العودة للتفاهم ترجمة أولى لثبات هذه الحتمية.

ليس أمام بايدن ترف الانتقائية، في انتقاء وجهة ترجمة حسم الخيار، سواء أكان الحرب أم التسوية، وطالما هو التسوية، فما يعمله بايدن كمخضرم في السياسة الدولية، ويعلمه معه فريقه الذي يملك ما يكفي من الخبرة، أن التفاهم النووي مع إيران هو محور التحولات التي يريد إحداثها في العلاقات الدولية لبدء صفحة جديدة من التفاوض الهادئ مع الحلفاء والخصوم، فانسحاب ترامب من التفاهم النووي هو مصدر الفرقة بين واشنطن وحلفائها الأوروبيين وهذه الفرقة مزقت حلف الناتو، والانسحاب من التفاهم النووي هو مصدر تحول الخلاف مع روسيا والصين الى مواجهة مفتوحة. طالما أن فلسفة الخروج من التفاهم تقوم على إلغاء الخصوم، وضرب عرض الحائط بالاتفاقات والمواثيق الدولية والالتزامات التي تفرضها، والعودة الى التفاهم ترد الاعتبار للمؤسسات الدولية من المؤسسة الأم التي تمثلها الأمم المتحدة الى الوكالة الدولية للطاقة الذرية.

يدرك بايدن وفريقه أيضاً أنهم لا يملكون ترف الوقت، فما فعله ترامب كان كافياً لخلق الشك بلا جدوى التفاهمات مع واشنطن، وإنتاج رأي عام غاضب ينتظر الانتقام من الجرائم، وتسييل فائض القوة لفرض معادلات جديدة، والاستحقاقات المقبلة في إيران تجعل الوقت داهماً، فخلال ستة شهور ستختار إيران رئيساً جديداً، والاستحقاق سيكون جواباً على السياسات الأميركية التي يمثلها بايدن، وهذه المرة سيكون البقاء تحت سقف التفاهم النووي والتزاماته على المحك، كما أشار قرار مجلس الشورى الإيراني، الذي قرّر تعليق هذه الالتزامات.

مستقبل بايدن على المحك ومعه مستقبل التفاهم النووي، ومستقبل الكثير الكثير من معادلات المنطقة والعالم. وليس الأمر ولم يكن ولن يكون، كرم أخلاق بايدن أو سوء نياته.

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Do Americans continue to strangle Lebanon? هل يواصل الأميركيّون خنق لبنان؟

Do Americans continue to strangle Lebanon?

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Some Lebanese hope that the stage of new U.S. President Joe Biden will be less damaging to the situation of their country than that of his predecessor Trump, who has not yet acknowledged his election loss.

It must be emphasized that political relations are not based on hopes as much as on the balance of power and the possibility of achieving goals and alliances.

Accordingly, the U.S. project, which began after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989, took the forms of a U.S. military invasion from Afghanistan to Iraq using an Israeli attack on Hezbollah in July 2006 that focused on the south, but it covered most of Lebanon and was part of the Middle East fragmentation project, which the former Secretary of State described from her country’s embassy in Beirut in 2006 as a project for a large Middle East, and the Americans completed their attack in Libya and Syria, interfering in Egypt and covering the war on Yemen, and the players of Sudan and Tunisia.

This project has been hit hard in the Trump phase, unable to make any progress in any part of the region, so he tried to compensate for the imposition of normalization between the UAE, Bahrain and Sudan with the Israeli entity has no real value in terms of balances in the Middle East because all these countries are a historical part of American influence.

The Americans found another way to tame the Middle East: the method of economic blockade and sanctions as alternative means of persuasion from failed military wars.

Lebanon is one of the countries under the yoke of U.S. economic and political sanctions, considering that attempts to control its successive governments, which are under formation, have not succeeded in their goals.

Attempts to provoke the pro-American Lebanese alliance have not reached a useful conclusion, as the other party opposed to them holds very strong political and popular balances.

Therefore, the imposition of sanctions on the head of the Free Patriotic Movement Gibran Bassil is part of the American attempts to bring about a major change in the internal balance of power that was supposed to cause confusion for  Hezbollah..

But Bassil refrained from meeting u.S. orders, which led to the imposition of U.S. sanctions on his political and economic movement, accusing him of. corruption that the whole world knows includes the entire Lebanese political class from 1990 to the present without any exception, and most of those belonging to it are Allies of the Americans and the Gulf with some European rapproches.

The first is to target Hezbollah’s internal strength, and the second is to push the pro-American Lebanese Christian forces to gain near-total control over their social environment, which also leads to hizbullah’s confusion in its confrontational movement against the occupied entity in southern Lebanon and the fight against terrorism in Syria and Lebanon.

So far, all these attempts have belonged to the era of President Trump, inherited from the era of Bush, Son and  Obama..

But America today is emerging from a presidential election in which The Democratic Biden and Trump Republican failed..

Does the new president deal with Lebanon differently?

The reality is that the Americans deal with Lebanon on the basis of regional conflict and do not rely much on its internal issues, the region for them includes Iran, the Gulf, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, and these are so closely linked that one can only be separated from the other if there is a major change in one for the benefit of the Americans that requires it to be separated from the regional situation and reintegrated into the Gulf-Israeli package.

But the Lebanese balances are the same, as evidenced by the fact that the two parties’ insistence on amal and Hezbollah to mandate Saad Hariri to form a new government did not result in a preponderance of the U.S. axis in Lebanon as much as reflecting the tendency of the two to achieve an internal truce that prevents any internal sectarian or sectarian clashes on which U.S. policy works with Gulf support.

Is Biden  repeating the same policies. of his predecessor Trump in the region?

Therefore, logic is that the major military options in the Middle East have become more  excluded with the success of Iran in the steadfastness, as well as Yemen, Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon..

This is with situations that are not what the Americans in Iraq desire.

In other words, Biden  finds himself forced to seek settlements with Iran first and foremost for multiple importances,the first of which has iran’s second gas in the world in terms of production, in addition to oil and huge amounts of uranium that are not yetinvested.

As for Iran, the political state of Sana’a is the victor, the popular mobilization in Iraq, the Syrian state and Hezbollah in Lebanon, meaning that any real truce with it or a real settlement includes most of the countries of the region, including of course Lebanon in such a way that it is possible to produce a new government represented by the alliance of the national current with the duo Amal, Hezbollah, future Hariri, Jumblatt, Franjieh and Armenians, while the party of the forces isolates itself refraining from participating.

This is the only way to reproduce normal U.S. relations in the entire region, including, of course, Lebanon, which is بايدن  eagerly awaiting Biden in the hope of lifting the sanctions on Bassil and lifting the blockade on Lebanon to restore balances to normal..

هل يواصل الأميركيّون خنق لبنان؟

د. وفيق إبراهيم

يأمل بعض اللبنانيين أن تكون مرحلة الرئيس الأميركي الجديد جو بايدن أقل ضرراً على أوضاع بلدهم من مرحلة سلفه ترامب الذي لم يعترف بخسارته في الانتخابات حتى الآن.

لا بد أولاً من تأكيد أن العلاقات السياسيّة لا تستند الى الآمال بقدر ما تتكئ على موازين القوى وإمكانية تحقيق الأهداف والتحالفات.

بناء عليه فإن المشروع الأميركي الذي ابتدأ بعد انهيار الاتحاد السوفياتي في 1989 اخذ أشكال غزو عسكري أميركي من افغانستان الى العراق مستخدماً هجوماً اسرائيلياً على حزب الله في تموز 2006 تمحور حول الجنوب، لكنه شمل معظم مناطق لبنان وكان يشكل جزءاً من مشروع تفتيت الشرق الأوسط الذي وصفته الوزيرة الأميركية السابقة من سفارة بلادها في بيروت في 2006 بأنه مشروع لشرق اوسط كبير، واستكمل الأميركيون هجومهم في سورية وليبيا متدخلين في مصر ومغطين الحرب على اليمن، ومتلاعبين بالسودان وتونس والجزائر.

هذا المشروع أصيب بضربات قوية في مرحلة ترامب عاجزاً عن تحقيق أي تقدم في اي بقعة من المنطقة، فحاول التعويض بفرض تطبيع بين الإمارات والبحرين والسودان مع الكيان الإسرائيلي لا قيمة فعلية له على مستوى التوازنات في الشرق الأوسط لأن كل هذه البلدان هي جزء تاريخي من النفوذ الأميركي.

فوجد الأميركيون نهجاً آخر لترويض الشرق الأوسط وهو أسلوب الحصار الاقتصادي وفرض العقوبات كوسائل إقناع بديلة من الحروب العسكرية الفاشلة.

لبنان اذاً هو واحد من البلدان الواقعة تحت نير العقوبات الأميركية الاقتصادية والسياسية باعتبار ان محاولات السيطرة على حكوماته المتعاقبة والتي قيد التشكيل لم تفلح في مراميها.

كما أن محاولات استنهاض الحلف اللبناني المؤيد للأميركيين لم يصل الى نتيجة مفيدة باعتبار أن الطرف الآخر المناهض لهم يمسك بتوازنات سياسية وشعبية قوية جداً.

لذلك فإن فرض عقوبات على رئيس التيار الوطني الحر جبران باسيل هو جزء من المحاولات الأميركية لإحداث تغيير كبير في موازين القوى الداخلية كان من المفروض ان تتسبب بإرباكات لحزب الله.

لكن باسيل امتنع عن تلبية الأوامر الأميركية ما أدّى الى فرض عقوبات أميركية على حركته السياسية والاقتصادية مع اتهامه بفساد يعرف العالم بأسره أنه يشمل كامل الطبقة السياسية اللبنانية منذ 1990 حتى تاريخه من دون أي استثناء ومعظم المنتمين إليها هم من حلفاء الأميركيين والخليجيين مع بعض التقاربات الأوروبية.

بما يؤكد أن الاستهداف الأميركي لباسيل له سببان: الأول هو التصويب على القوة الداخلية لحزب الله، والثاني دفع القوى المسيحيّة اللبنانية الموالية للأميركيين الى تحقيق سيطرة شبه كاملة على بيئتها الاجتماعية، بما يؤدي أيضاً الى إرباك حزب الله في حركيّته المجابهة للكيان المحتل في جنوب لبنان والمكافحة ضد الإرهاب في سورية ولبنان.

حتى الآن تنتمي كل هذه المحاولات الى مرحلة الرئيس ترامب التي ورثتها عن عهود بوش الأب والإبن وأوباما.

لكن أميركا اليوم تخرج من انتخابات رئاسية نجح فيها بايدن الديمقراطي وفشل فيها ترامب الجمهوري.

فهل يتعامل الرئيس الجديد مع لبنان بشكل مختلف؟

الواقع يقول إن الأميركيين يتعاملون مع لبنان على اساس الصراع الإقليمي ولا يعولون كثيراً على مسألته الداخلية، فالمنطقة بالنسبة اليهم تشمل إيران والخليج والعراق وسورية ولبنان واليمن، وهذه شديدة الترابط بحيث لا يمكن فصل واحدة عن الأخرى إلا اذا حدث تغيير كبير في إحداها لمصلحة الأميركيين تتطلب فصلها عن الوضع الإقليمي واعادة ضمها الى الباقة الخليجية الإسرائيلية.

لكن التوازنات اللبنانية على حالها، بدليل أن إصرار الثنائي حركة امل وحزب الله على تكليف سعد الحريري بتشكيل حكومة جديدة لم ينتج عن رجحان للمحور الأميركي في لبنان بقدر ما عكس ميلاً من الثنائي لتحقيق هدنة داخلية تمنع أي صدامات داخلية مذهبية او طائفية تعمل عليها السياسة الأميركية بدعم خليجي.

فهل يكرّر بايدن سياسات سلفه ترامب نفسها في المنطقة؟ السياسات واحدة لا تتغير، لكن الأساليب هي التي تتبدل، والاهمية بالنسبة للأميركيين هي الاستئثار بأكبر كمية ممكنة من اقتصادات الشرق الاوسط لإعادة ضخّها في اقتصادهم الداخلي.

لذلك يعتبر المنطق أن الخيارات العسكرية الكبرى في منطقة الشرق الأوسط اصبحت اكثر استبعاداً مع نجاح إيران في الصمود وكذلك اليمن وسورية وحزب الله في لبنان.

هذا مع أوضاع ليست كما يشتهيها الأميركيون في العراق.

بمعنى أن بايدن يجد نفسه مضطراً الى البحث عن تسويات مع إيران أولاً وأخيراً لأهميات متعددة اصبحت بحوزتها واولها الغاز الإيراني الثاني عالمياً على مستوى الانتاج بالإضافة الى النفط وكميات ضخمة من الاورانيوم ليست مستثمرة حتى الآن.

اما إيران السياسية فهي حليفة دولة صنعاء المنتصرة والحشد الشعبي في العراق والدولة السورية وحزب الله في لبنان، بمعنى أن أي هدنة حقيقية معها أو تسوية حقيقية فهذا يشمل معظم دول المنطقة ومنها بالطبع لبنان بشكل يصبح فيه ممكناً إنتاج حكومة جديدة يتمثل فيها حلف التيار الوطني مع الثنائي أمل وحزب الله والمستقبل الحريري وجنبلاط وفرنجية والأرمن، فيما يعزل حزب القوات نفسه ممتنعاً عن المشاركة.

هذا هو الطريق الوحيد الذي يعاود إنتاج علاقات أميركية طبيعية في المنطقة بكاملها، ومنها بالطبع لبنان الذي يترقب بايدن بفارغ الصبر آملاً إلغاء العقوبات عن باسيل وفك الحصار عن لبنان لإعادة التوازنات الى طبيعتها.

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America has fallen … and the East Trio is collecting the harvest أميركا سقطت… وثلاثيّ الشرق يراكم الحصاد

America has fallen … and the East Trio is collecting the harvest

Mohammed Sadiq Al-Husseini

Franklin Roosevelt says:

«Nothing happens in politics by chance, make sure that everything that happens was planned tohappen.

We don’t believe in coincidence at all, but we wanted to rely on one of their elders as we were going to explainit.

What happened and continues in the U.S. elections and in the course of crystallizing the new structure of government when the White Oligarchy in Washington is a vivid example that everything that happens in politics is carefully planned in the backcorridors.

The deep american hidden forces that brought Donald Trump to achieve their goals and after four years of confusion and setbacks, i realized that those who put him in the forefront failed miserably, and it became her duty to change her blond horse with a colored horse that might fix what his losing predecessor had corrupted…

The loss of U.S. President Donald Trump is no longer the issue, just as Joe Biden’s victory is no longer important, but more importantly, the unprecedented direction this election has taken, from the beginning of the campaign to thismoment.

America has shown what it is, as it has never been built before… Deep political and moral decline, total chaos and concern for all American citizens, conservatives andliberals…

Their terror has intensified from coming to their country, and some of them are now afraid of the origin of a unitedAmerica.

What has brought the United States to this level of uncertainty, divisions and differences, which are spreading among the categories and classes of the American people and their political elites,

And even the military, which was manifested in the preparation of the current U.S. Secretary of War, General Mark Esper, for his letter of resignation?

The reasons for this grim fate of American prestige, and indeed the state itself as a political entity, as we know it, are not only related to the character of President Trump, but to the failure of the deep American forces that brought him to the White House four years ago. Those forces that mistakenly believed that he was a successful businessman and media, and that he might be able to achieve the objectives of these hidden powers, namely the world’s major capitalist powers, namely (the objectives) of trying to regain U.S. unipolar control over the world, and to stop the rise of other international powers to take the lead of theworld.

But President Trump, who inherited a defeated administration in Iraq and Afghanistan, and then confirmed the defeats of this administration in Iraq, defeating ISIS in Mosul in 2017, and by regaining control of most of its territory, we say that this president has proved that he is unable to repair what the previous administrations have corrupted, even if he really intends to doso.

And so Trump’s failure to achieve any U.S. victory, which has a strategic nature, and not just a demagogic media nature that does not change the balance of power on theground.

Here are the most important aspects of his failure:

It has failed miserably to subject Iran as an emerging power, despite all the extreme sanctions and constant threats, of military aggression against it. Indeed, it has been a reason for them to redouble their efforts, many times, to build their own forces, economically and militarily, and to rely more and more on themselves, thus turning them not too long into a regional superpower that can address any regional issue or crisis in isolation.
It also failed to prevent the Iraqi armed forces from destroying the basic strengths of ISIS gangs in Mosul and other Iraqi provinces at the end of 2018, while he and his army were providing them with multi-form support in Iraq as well as in Syria.

Moreover, although it has bombed Syrian positions and installations more than once, and has joined forces with the efforts of its military base on the Palestinian territory (The Zionist entity), as well asthe efforts of nato claw in the region, Turkish President Erdogan, has failed to stop the advance of the Syrian army and liberate more Syrian territory.
.

Of course, the resounding American failure to overthrow Yemen and control it and the strategic sea entrances, despite tens of thousands of Saudi-Israeli air strikes and the participation of the United States, Britain and France in supporting the forces of aggression intelligence, as the steadfast National Yemen is approaching victory more than ever, while the son of Salman and ibn Zayed and their masters are blamed by the defeatdenied. The greatest failure, in the march of the undersecretary of american forces Donald Trump, is his failure to subjugate the Palestinian people and force them to accept what he called the Deal of the Century, and his failure to even bring the leadership of the Palestinian Authority into the Fold of the White House to declare the Palestinian people’s surrender to projects to liquidate their cause and end their demand for the liberation of their occupied homeland, Palestine. This surrender, which would have given American imperialism and its local descendants, from Zionists, new Ottomans and Arabs in the Gulf, full control over the capabilities of the entire Arab world and opened the way to a massive financial investment process, such as the one carried out by the United States in Europe after World War II and whose influence (the control of American capital over the economy and politics) continued almost absolutely to this day..

It must also be confirmed that Trump’s resounding failure, in the face of the Corona epidemic, despite his false and repeated accusations of the people’s China to spread the epidemic, that besides his failure to manage the epidemic crisis in his country, he has failed miserably in the face of China’s economic, political and military rise, and has failed to create a rift in the Alliance or Cooperation of Russia and China, in terms of joint action to endthe unilateral American hegemony over the world’s capabilities. This means that the hidden powers of america, which chose Trump to save the United States from the inevitability of losing its dominance over the world, have been omitted, because of their arrogance, racism and ignorance of policy philosophy and objective economic development laws, that the American crisis is far too deep to be saved by a tv presenter and a failed and bankrupt businessman, likeTrump…!

The roots of the grinding crisis, domestically and internationally, facing the United States, are not a crisis of ideologies, political programs or even distinct American strategies, between this party or that party, but a structural crisis, encompassing the entire international capitalist system, and can only be fixed through radical actions, which Washington has no room to implement for a variety of reasons that cannot be explainedhere.

The United States has wasted 30 years in waging wars of aggression, in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen, Somalia and others, while Russia, China and Iran have focused all their efforts and financial capabilities, on scientific research and deepening knowledge, and creating a base for tremendous scientific and technological superiority, which has enabled it to outperform Washington in many military fields as well as to develop the domestic infrastructure of these countries, ensuring the continued implementation of long-term development projects, whether within those countries or in other countries and continents with which they have built or cooperated strongly, at alllevels.

It only needs to look at the recent Iranian move, coordinated with Beijing and Moscow, in Latin America, which was manifested in the recent visit of the Iranian Foreign Minister to Caracas, Havana and La Paz, and the joint cooperation projects discussed between the Iranian minister and officials of those countries. Long-term, including military-technical cooperation, i.e. the export of Iranian weapons and their manufacture in those countries after america’s fiasco not only to surround Iran, but also to stop its violence, which is expanding and is settling in its strategic space with all prestige and support.

The first rescue steps, which the next U.S. president must take if he is to reserve a significant seat in the new post-Trump international order, are to move away from policies of aggression and war, and to invest the bulk of the U.S. Department of War’s budget ($750 billion this year) in developing U.S. infrastructure and scientific research so that the U.S. economy is immune to collapse and competitive rather than superior. This is because the era of American superiority is gone forever and those who dream of the return of the world economy’s dominance to the throne of the world, as was the case from the end of World War II until the mid-1980s, it is delusional and dreamed of something that has become a thing of thepast.

Free trade competition, with growing international economies, is the only way to banish the spectre of collapse and disintegration of the state, the rest of the United States of America, not the arrogance, arrogance and racism of hidden American forces, both internally andexternally.

In conclusion, we come back and confirm that we are here, but we are reviewing America as it is in fact, and we never weave a picture of our imagination… This is her history.

Check it out with documents, numbers, documents, evidence and evidence…

They said the day they entered the land of Canaan and established the state of Israel on the day they built the first 13 settlements in the east of the so-called United States of Americatoday…

They were expanding and marching in all directions until they killed 112 million Latinos, i.e. indigenouspeople…

I think today they have lost all the momentum left to them and their reverse count ing began to disappear…

The main reason they lose all their morals… “But the nations of morality are not left, so they aregone.

أميركا سقطت… وثلاثيّ الشرق يراكم الحصاد

محمد صادق الحسيني

يقول فرانكلين روزفلت:

«لا شيء يحصل في السياسة بالصدفة، تأكدوا بأنّ كلّ ما يقع كان مخططاً له أن يقع».

ونحن إذ لا نؤمن بمقولة الصدفة أصلاً، لكننا أردنا ان نستند الى أحد كبارهم فيما نحن ذاهبون لشرحه.

ما حصل ولا يزال في الانتخابات الأميركية وفي مسار تبلور التركيبة الجديدة للحكم عند حكم الاوليغارشية البيضاء في واشنطن، مثال حيّ على انّ كلّ ما يحصل في السياسة إنما هو مخطط له بعناية في الأروقة الخلفية.

فالقوى الخفية الأميركية العميقة التي أتت بدونالد ترامب ليحقق لها أهدافها وبعد مضي أربع سنوات من التخبّط والانكسارات، أيقنت أن من وضعته في الواجهة فشل فشلاً ذريعاً في ذلك، وصار واجباً عليها تغيير حصانها الأشقر بحصان ملوّن لعله يصلح ما أفسده سلفه الخاسر…!

لم تعُد خسارة الرئيس الأميركي، دونالد ترامب، من عدمها هو الموضوع، تماماً كما لم يعد فوز جو بايدن هو المهم، وإنما الأهمّ هو المنحى غير المسبوق الذي اتخذته هذه الانتخابات، منذ بدء الحملة الانتخابية حتى هذه اللحظة.

فقد بانت أميركا على حقيقتها كما لم تبَنْ من قبل… انحطاط سياسي وأخلاقي عميق وفوضى عارمة وقلق يساور كل المواطنين الأميركيين من محافظين وليبراليين…

لقد اشتدّ رهابهم من الآتي لبلادهم حتى صار البعض منهم يخاف على أصل بقاء أميركا موحّدة..!

فما الذي أوصل الولايات المتحدة الى هذا المستوى من عدم اليقين والانقسامات والخلافات، التي تنتشر بين فئات وطبقات الشعب الأميركيّ ونخبه السياسية،

وحتى العسكرية، والتي تجلت في إعداد وزير الحرب الأميركي الحالي، الجنرال مارك إسبر، لرسالة استقالته؟

إنّ أسباب هذا المآل القاتم للهيبة الأميركية، لا بل للدولة نفسها ككيان سياسيّ، كما عرفناه، ليست مرتبطة فقط بشخصية الرئيس الأميركي ترامب، بقدر ما هي مرتبطة بفشل القوى الأميركية العميقة، التي أوصلته الى البيت الأبيض، قبل أربع سنوات. تلك القوى التي اعتقدت، خطأً، أنه رجل أعمال وإعلام ناجح، وأنه قد يكون قادراً على تحقيق أهداف هذه القوى الخفية، أي القوى الرأسمالية الكبرى في العالم، والمتمثلة (الأهداف) في محاولة استعادة السيطرة الأميركية الأحادية القطبية على العالم، ووقف صعود قوى دولية أخرى لتبؤّ قيادة العالم.

لكن الرئيس ترامب، الذي ورث إدارة مهزومة في العراق وأفغانستان، ثم تأكدت هزائم هذه الإدارة في العراق، بهزيمة داعش في الموصل سنة 2017، وباستعادة الدولة السورية السيطرة على معظم أراضيها، نقول إنّ هذا الرئيس قد أثبت انه غير قادر على إصلاح ما أفسدته الإدارات السابقة، حتى لو كان فعلاً ينوي القيام بذلك.

وهكذا فشل ترامب في تحقيق أيّ انتصار أميركي، له طبيعة استراتيجية، وليس فقط له طبيعة إعلامية ديماغوجية لا تغيّر في موازين القوى الميدانية شيئاً.

وإليكم أهمّ مناحي فشله:

فهو فشل فشلاً ذريعاً في إخضاع إيران كقوة صاعدة، رغم كلّ العقوبات القصوى والتهديدات المتواصلة، بالعدوان العسكري عليها. بل إنه صار سبباً في جعلها تضاعف جهودها، مرات عدة، لبناء قواها الذاتية، اقتصادياً وعسكرياً، والاعتماد على نفسها أكثر فأكثر، مما حولها في وقت ليس بالطويل إلى قوة إقليمية عظمى لا يمكن معالجة أيّ موضوع أو أزمة إقليمية بمعزل عنها.

كما أنه فشل في منع القوات المسلحة العراقية من تدمير القوام الأساسي لعصابات داعش، في الموصل وغيرها من المحافظات العراقية نهاية عام 2018، في الوقت الذي كان هو وجيشه يقدّم لتلك العصابات الدعم المتعدّد الأشكال في العراق كما في سورية. وهو ما يعني فشل السياسة الأميركية في تثبيت سيطرة داعش على سورية والعراق وتدمير الدولتين وتقسيمهما وإخراجهما من جميع معادلات الصراع في المنطقة.

يضاف الى ذلك أنه، ورغم قيامه بقصف مواقع ومنشآت سورية أكثر من مرة، وتضافر جهوده مع جهود قاعدته العسكرية على اليابسة الفلسطينية (الكيان الصهيوني)، وكذلك جهود مخلب الناتوفي المنطقة، الرئيس التركي أردوغان، قد فشل في وقف تقدّم الجيش السوري وتحرير المزيد من الأراضي السورية. وهو ما يعني فشل مخطط إسقاط الدولة السورية وتفتيتها وإنهاء استقلالها ووحدة أراضيها تمهيداً لنهب ثرواتها الطبيعية.

ولا بدّ طبعاً من إضافة الفشل الأميركي المدوّي في إسقاط اليمن والسيطرة عليه وعلى المداخل البحرية الاستراتيجية، رغم عشرات آلاف الغارات الجوية السعودية الإسرائيلية الإماراتية ومشاركة الولايات المتحده وبريطانيا وفرنسا في دعم قوى العدوان استخبارياً، حيث إنّ اليمن الوطني الصامد يقترب من النصر أكثر من أي وقت مضى، فيما يلملم إبن سلمان وابن زايد وأسيادهما أذيال الهزيمة المنكرة.

ويبقى الفشل الأعظم، في مسيرة وكيل القوى الأميركية الخفية دونالد ترامب، هو فشله في إخضاع الشعب الفلسطيني وإجباره على قبول ما أسماه بصفقة القرن، وفشله حتى في جلب قيادة السلطة الفلسطينية الى حظيرة البيت الأبيض لإعلان استسلام الشعب الفلسطيني لمشاريع تصفية قضيته وإنهاء مطالبته بتحرير وطنه المحتل، فلسطين كاملةً. هذا الاستسلام الذي كان سيمنح الإمبريالية الأميركية وأذنابها المحليين، من صهاينة وعثمانيين جدد وأعراب في الخليج، سيطرة كاملة على مقدرات العالم العربي بأسره وفتح الطريق الى عملية استثمارات مالية هائلة، كتلك التي نفذتها الولايات المتحده في اوروبا بعد الحرب العالمية الثانية والتي استمر تأثيرها (سيطرة رأس المال الأميركي على الاقتصاد والسياسة) بشكل مطلق تقريباً حتى وقتنا الحاضر.

كما يجب تأكيد فشل ترامب المدوي، في مواجهة وباء كورونا، رغم اتهاماته الباطلة والمتكررة للصين الشعبية بنشر هذا الوباء، اذ انه والى جانب فشله في ادارة الأزمة الوبائية في بلاده فقد فشل فشلاً ذريعاً في مواجهة صعود الصين الاقتصادي والسياسي والعسكري، كما فشل في خلق شرخ في التحالف او التعاون الروسي الصيني، على صعيد العمل المشترك لإنهاء الهيمنة الأميركية الأحادية على مقدرات العالم.

وهذا يعني أن القوى الخفية الأميركية، التي اختارت ترامب لإنقاذ الولايات المتحدة من حتمية فقدان هيمنتها على العالم، قد أغفلت، بسبب عنجهيتها وعنصريتها وجهلها بفلسفة السياسة وبقوانين التطور الاقتصادي الموضوعية، أن الازمة الأميركية اكثر عمقاً بكثير من ان ينقذها مُقدِّم برامج تهريج تلفزيونية ورجل أعمال فاشل ومفلس، مثل ترامب…!

إذ انّ جذور الأزمة الطاحنة، داخلياً ودولياً، التي تواجه الولايات المتحدة، ليست أزمة ايديولوجيات او برامج سياسية او حتى استراتيجيات أميركية متمايزة، بين هذا الحزب او ذاك، وإنما هي ازمة بنيوية، تشمل كل النظام الرأسمالي الدولي، ولا يمكن إصلاحها الا من خلال إجراءات جذرية، ليس لدى واشنطن مجال لتطبيقها لأسباب متعددة لا مجال لشرحها هنا.

لقد أضاعت الولايات المتحده ثلاثين عاماً في شنّ الحروب العدوانية، في أفغانستان والعراق وسورية وليبيا واليمن والصومال وغيرها، بينما ركزت روسيا والصين وإيران كل جهودها وقدراتها المالية،على البحث العلمي وتعميق المعرفة، وخلق قاعدة للتفوّق العلمي والتكنولوجي الهائل، الذي مكّنها من تحقيق تفوق على واشنطن في العديد من المجالات العسكرية وكذلك في تطوير البنى التحتية المحلية لهذه الدول، بما يضمن استمرار تنفيذ مشاريع التنمية الطويلة الامد، سواءً في داخل تلك الدول أو في دول وقارات أخرى بنت معها اواصر تعاون متين، على الصعد كلها.

ولا يحتاج الامر إلا الى إلقاء نظرة على التحرك الإيراني الاخير، المنسق مع بكين وموسكو، في أميركا اللاتينية، والذي تجلى في زيارة وزير الخارجيه الإيراني الاخيرة الى كل من كاراكاس وهاڤانا ولاباز، وما تمّ بحثه بين الوزير الإيراني وبين مسؤولي تلك البلدان من مشاريع تعاون مشتركة طويلة الأمد، بما في ذلك التعاون العسكري التقني، أي تصدير السلاح الإيراني وصناعته في تلك الدول بعد الفشل الذريع الذي مُنيت به أميركا ليس فقط في محاصرة إيران بل وفي وقف عنفوانها الذي تمدد وها هو يستقر في فضائها الاستراتيجي بكل هيبة وسؤدد.

وعليه فإنّ أولى خطوات الإنقاذ، التي يجب ان يتخذها الرئيس الأميركي القادم اذا ما اراد ان يحجز لبلده المتهاوي مقعداً يُعتد به في النظام الدولي الجديد ما بعد ترامب، انما تتمثل في الابتعاد عن سياسات العدوان وشنّ الحروب، واستثمار النسبة الأكبر من موازنة وزارة الحرب الأميركية (750 مليار دولار لهذا العام) في تطوير البنى التحتية الأميركية والبحث العلمي كي يصبح الاقتصاد الأميركي محصناً ضد الانهيار وقادراً على المنافسة وليس على التفوق. وذلك لأن عصر التفوق الأميركي قد ولى الى غير رجعة ومن يحلم بعودة سيطرة الاقتصاد العالمي على عرش العالم، كما كان الوضع منذ نهاية الحرب العالمية الثانية وحتى أواسط الثمانينيات من القرن الماضي، فإنه واهم وحالم بشيء اصبح من الماضي.

التنافس التجاري الحر، مع الاقتصاديات الدولية المتزايدة النمو، هو الطريق الوحيد، لإبعاد شبح الانهيار وتفكك الدولة، ما تبقى من الولايات المتحدة الأميركية، وليس المكابرة والعنجهية والعنصرية التي تمارسها القوى الأميركية الخفية، داخلياً وخارجياً.

في الختام نعود ونؤكد اننا هنا إنما نستعرض أميركا كما هي في الواقع، ولا ننسج عنها صورة من مخيلتنا ابداً… هذا هو تاريخها.

راجعوه بالوثائق والأرقام والمستندات والقرائن والبراهين…

هم قالوا عن أنفسهم يوم دخلوا مستوطنين قادمين من انجلترا إنهم دخلوا أرض كنعان واقاموا دولة «إسرائيل» يوم بنوا أول 13 مستوطنة في شرق ما يسمّى الولايات المتحدة الأميركية اليوم…

وأخذوا يتوسّعون ويزحفون بكلّ الاتجاهات حتى قضوا على 112 مليون من اللاتينيين أي السكان الأصليين…

وأظنهم اليوم فقدوا كلّ ما تبقى لهم من قوة اندفاع وبدأ عدهم العكسي للاختفاء…

والسبب الأساسي فقدانهم كلّ أخلاقهم… و»إنما الأمم الأخلاق ما بقيت فإنْ همُ ذهبت أخلاقهم ذهبوا».

بعدنا طيبين قولوا الله…

ماذا بعد الانتخابات الأميركيّة وتداعياتها؟

العميد د. أمين محمد حطيط

لم يشهد حدث انتخابيّ في العالم اهتماماً دولياً وعالمياً يضاهي ما شهدته الانتخابات الأميركية الأخيرة، ففي حين انّ المألوف بين الناس أو المتعارف عليه يتمثل بقاعدة “الانتخابات تعني شعب الدولة التي تجريها”، فإنّ شعوب العالم ودوله تصرّفت وكأن الانتخابات هي انتخاباتها الخاصة، تصرّف يربط بسبب الوضع الأميركي والدور الذي تلعبه أميركا في السياسة الخارجية والعلاقات الدولية والتدخل في الشؤون الداخلية لكلّ دول العالم، حيث إنها ومستندة إلى قوّتها المركبة من عسكرية واقتصادية ذاتية او مستتبعة، وتصرفها في الأمن والسياسة والاجتماع، أنها مستندة لتلك القوة تتصرّف وبكلّ طمأنينة وثقة بالنفس بأنها حاكمة العالم وشرطيّه وسيّده الذي له الحقّ في فعل ما يريد وأن يضع له القواعد السلوكيّة التي تريد، تكافئ او تعاقب، تهادن أو تحارب هذا او ذاك، تفعل كلّ ذلك بإرادتها الأحادية المنفردة غير عابئة بما يُسمّى “قانون دولي عام” وقواعده الاتفاقية والنظامية.

ولأنّ أميركا كذلك، فإنّ العالم يهتمّ بمن سيكون “الرئيس“ الذي سيمارس تلك الصلاحيات الاستبدادية والسلوكيات التسلطية، يهتمّ العالم بانتخاباتها ليعرف “الجلاد” الذي سيواجهه، وطبيعة الرئيس الذي سيقود العدوان عليه. يفعل ذلك بحثاً أو أملاً بتغيير في النهج والأسلوب او مراجعة للأولويات وإعادة نظر بالخطط التي وضعت لتحقق عبرها أهداف الدولة “الجبارة”، وهنا يُطرح السؤال: هل النظرة لأميركا وانتخاباتها بهذا الشكل هي نظرة موضوعية؟ وهل سياسة أميركا تتغيّر حقيقة بين رئيس ورئيس؟

قبل أن أجيب على التساؤل، يكفي أن أذكر بما حدث عندنا في العقدين الأخيرين، حيث إنّ “الرئيس الجمهوري بوش قام بغزو العراق في العام 2003 ودفع إسرائيل لغزو لبنان في العام 2006” معتمداً استراتيجية القوة الصلبة التي اتخذها استراتيجيته العملية لفرض النظام العالمي أحادي القطبية، ولما آلت السلطة الى الرئيس الديمقراطي أوباما تغيّرت استراتيجية العدوان واعتمدت القوة الناعمة ثم القوة الإرهابية العمياء استراتيجية للعدوان بالشكل الجديد، وبها قادت أميركا عدواناً تدميرياً على 5 دول عربية لا زالت تتلظّى من الحريق الذي أشعلته تلك الاستراتيجية الوحشية. ولمّا ترك الديمقراطي الحكم وعاد الجمهوري إليه ورغم كلّ وعود الأخير الانتخابية، فإنه لم يوقف حرباً على جبهة واحدة في الشرق الأوسط ولم يُخلِ منطقة تحتلها القوات الأميركية وتابع بالخطط المرسومة للعدوان، دونما تغيير يُذكر في المضمون رغم بعض عمليات التجميل في الشكل.

ذكرت كلّ ذلك لأقول، إنّ الرئيس في أميركا ليس هو أميركا، وليس هو الملك المطلق الصلاحية الذي يصنع ما يريد، بل إن في أميركا مؤسسات رسمية وغير رسمية تتشكل منها “الدولة العميقة” التي قد تجد نفسها في مواجهة الرئيس إنْ كانت قراراته مخالفة لما تراه “مصلحة أميركية عليا”، وفي أميركا “لوبيات الضغط” التي تعمل لمصالح منظومات وكارتلات خاصة، كارتلات النفط والسلاح والمال وهي التي تملك القوة الخفيّة التي تقوّي الرئيس أو تضعفه حتى وقد تشله أو تطيح به، وهذه “الدولة العميقة” بمؤسساتها وكارتلاتها هي الحاكم الفعلي لأميركا، وعليها يجب ان تركز الأنظار بالنسبة لما يجب ان توضع خطط المواجهة.

بيد أنّ هذا الواقع لا يعني بأنّ أميركا ارتقت الى مصاف ما يمكن تسميته بالقدر الذي لا يُردّ والقوة التي لا تضعف والسلطان الدائم الأبديّ الذي لا يسقط، ففي أميركا نقاط ضعف ووهن إذا تمّ تفعيلها، مترافقة مع تخفيف فعالية مصادر قوتها فإنّ الوضع يتغيّر، وإنّ “الدولة العميقة” ستجد نفسها أمام عوائق لا يمكنها تخطّيها بيسر وسهولة.

فقوة أميركا وتماسكها الداخلي الذي يحفظ هذه القوة مرتبط بعناصر ثلاثة: الأول وجود الخطر المتمثل بالعدو الخارجيّ المستلزم الإعداد المتعدد الوجوه عسكرياً واستراتيجياً للمواجهة دفاعاً عن الذات، والثاني قوة الاقتصاد الذي يجب تسهيل دورته وتنشيطها داخلياً وخارجياً لتأمين الرفاه، والثالث وقد يراه البعض هو الأهمّ وهو الدولار الذي به تمسك أميركا بقرار العالم المالي ومن بوابته تعاقب أو تحاسب مَن تشاء من دول وكيانات وأفراد وأشخاص طبيعيين ومعنويين.

في المقابل نجد في الجسم الأميركيّ بذور وهن وضعف لا تُخفى، بذوراً تتمثل بالتعدّدية العرقيّة والدينيّة والفكريّة والاجتماعيّة، وانتفاء التاريخ المشترك لمكونات الشعب/ الشعوب في أميركا مع التفاوت الرهيب في نظرة المكوّن للآخر خاصة على صعيد اللون أو العرق أو الفكر الفلسفيّ، بذوراً تكون خامدة إذا كانت عناصر القوة ناشطة متوثبة وتعطي الجسم الأميركي المناعة اللازمة للاستمرار في مستويات القوة ولكنها تفعل العكس إذا تراجعت تلك المواطن في مسارات تأثيرها، وعليه نرى أنّ انتفاء الخطر الخارجي، يمكنها إذا فعلت أن تطيح بتلك “القوة الأسطورية”، او تشلها.

انطلاقاً من ذلك نرى أنّ خطورة ما جرى أو رافق أو استتبع الانتخابات الأميركية الحالية لا يتوقف عند النزاع حول شفافيتها أو نزاهتها، ولا يقوم على إمكانية انتقال النزاع الى القضاء كما يهدّد ترامب، مع ما يؤثر ذلك على الثقة بمؤسسة الرئاسة والنظام ككلّ، بل الخطورة الحقيقيّة تكمن في الانقسام العموديّ في المجتمع الأميركي، حيث تجد النصف الا قليلاً، ضدّ النصف الآخر. انقسام يسهله أيضاً غياب العدو والخطر الخارجي الذي يدفع الى التماسك، ورغم أنّ الدولة العميقة جهدت في السابق في اختلاق عدو لها أسمته “الإسلاموية” والإسلام السياسي أو “الإرهاب الإسلامي”، إلا أنها اليوم باتت في شبه انكشاف لاختلاقها ما يكاد يمثل فضيحة بعد أن كشف رئيسها ترامب بذاته تلك الفضيحة وقال بأنّ كلّ هذا الإرهاب هو صنع سلفه ووزيرة خارجيته هيلاري كلينتون. وهم يتحوّلون الآن للتركيز على الصين واعتبارها العدوان لم يكن العسكري المباشر فعلى الأقلّ العدو الاقتصادي الواجبة مواجهته، من دون أن يسقطوا طبعاً أوراق “الخطر الإيراني” و”العدو الروسي” الأوراق التي تتمسك بها أميركا لحاجات داخليّة ملحة.

وإضافة الى تراجع مسألة وجود العدو او انتفائه، نجد إرهاصات التحدي العالمي للدولار، تحدٍّ طال الوقت او قصر، فإنه سيتمكن في نهاية المطاف بالإطاحة بموقع الدولار الأميركي الحاكم لمالية العالم، إطاحة لن تنتظر العقود والقرون الطويلة بل باتت مسألة سنوات قليلة حيث سيجد الدولار نفسه مترنّحاً أمام منظومة مالية دولية تعدّ لها الصين وروسيا وإيران مع دول أخرى، ما سيؤدي الى تأثير سلبي مزدوج على الوضع الأميركي مالياً / سياسياً معطوفاً على الاقتصاد والاستثمار مع منتهى استراتيجي أكيد.

وعليه نقول إنه وبصرف النظر عمن سيكون سيد البيت الأبيض خلال السنوات الأربع المقبلة، بايدن الذي يهمّ بالدخول أم ترامب الذي يتمسك بالكرسي ويرفض الخروج، فإنّ النظرة في الشأن الأميركي يجب ألا تكون الى الانتخابات الرئيسة ونتائجها فحسب، بل إلى ما كشفته هذه الانتخابات من حقيقة وهن الجسم الأميركي وما خلفته من تداعيات داخلية ستكون من دون أدنى شك عاملاً مؤثراً في سياسات أميركا وسلوكياتها الخارجية، ويبقى أن يكون في مواجهة أميركا القادة الشجعان الواثقون بكرامات أممهم وحقوقها، فأميركا أوهن مما يُظن، وانّ تراجعها أسرع مما يُعتقد، فقد لا تتفكك غداً او بعد غد، وقد لا تنشب فيها حرب أهلية بعد إعلان نتائج الانتخابات الرئاسية التي سيرفضها ما قد يصل الى نصف الأميركيين، لكن الأكيد أنّ أميركا انكشفت وافتضحت حقيقتها بما لا يدع مجالاً للشك بأنها ليست مؤهلة او قادرة على الاستمرار في حكم العالم او بالتحكم الاستبداديّ به.

أستاذ جامعيّ – باحث استراتيجيّ

سقوط الإمبراطوريّة الأميركيّة والبحث عن مخلص!

ناصر قنديل

في الدولة الإمبراطورية الأعظم في العالم التي تمثلها أميركا انتخابات، هي واحدة من عشرات الانتخابات المماثلة التي شهدتها وقدمت خلالها نموذجاً للانتقال السلمي للسلطة، بصورة جعلت منها النموذج الأعرق للديمقراطية في العالم، وفي الدولة الإمبراطورية العظمى، والنموذج الديمقراطي الأعرق، يتفق المرشحان المتنافسان على شيء واحد هو أن الانتخابات هذه المرّة قد لا تشهد انتقالاً سلمياً للسلطة، فالرئيس الحالي دونالد ترامب هو أول رئيس أميركي يهدّد بعدم التسليم بنتائج الانتخابات وعدم تسليم السلطة، والمرشح الديمقراطي جو بايدن يحذر من أعمال شغب وفوضى، ومحللون وسياسيون وخبراء كثر من النخب الوازنة في الوسطين السياسي والإعلامي يتحدّثون علناً عن خطر حرب أهلية تنتظر أميركا، والتقارير المجمع عليها من مناصري الفريقين المتنافسين تتحدّث عن حمى تسلح وعن تمرّد ولايات على الدولة الفدرالية إذا فاز المرشح المنافس للمرشح الذي يتملك غالبية كاسحة في هذه الولايات. والحديث يدور هنا عن أكثر من عشر ولايات تدين بولائها للديمقراطيين بصورة كاسحة ومثلها تدين بالولاء للجمهوريين بصورة كاسحة.

للمرة الأولى في التاريخ الأميركي لا تملك السياسة الأميركية في الحزبين فرصة لحل أزمتها الداخلية بالتوجّه نحو الخارج، ولا يملك كل من الحزبين حلولاً سحرية لأزمات الداخل، والتغيير الجوهري الذي يراهن عليه كل من المرشحين يعني مساساً بثوابت قيمية وجودية للفريق الآخر، بصورة تجعل خسارته الانتخابات أكبر من خسارة مؤقتة بما تعنيه من فتح الطريق لمجتمع من نوع آخر، وقيم حاكمة أخرى، ما يضع وحدة الدولة والمجتمع على المحك، وفي عمق المأزق الأميركي يشترك الحزبان الواقفان وراء المرشحين في بلوغ الطريق المسدود في خوض الحروب، بعد ولايتين لجورج بوش أشد الرؤساء الجمهوريين رهاناً على الحرب الخشنة، وولايتين لباراك أوباما أشد الرؤساء الديمقراطيين رهاناً على الحرب الناعمة، والحصيلة فشل مكثف في الولايات الرئاسية الأربع، وصولاً للحرب التي شهدتها الولاية الخامسة التي كان عنوانها دونالد ترامب، وعنوانها العقوبات وحروب الحصار المالي، التي أضافت للفشل مزيداً من الفشل، لتجد أميركا نفسها أمام طريق مسدود بين حرب تعجز عن خوضها وتسوية لا تجرؤ على الخوض فيها.

أمام الأميركيين أميركيتان مختلفتان جذرياً مع فوز كل من المرشحين المتنافسين، واحدة تلغي الأخرى، داخلياً وخارجياً، في مشاريع التنمية الاقتصادية، والتوجهات الضريبية والبيئية، وفرص العمل والأجور، والتأمينات الصحية والتعامل مع كورونا، والعلاقة بين الأعراق والإطار القانوني للمواطنة الأميركية، فأميركا ترامب بيضاء للأثرياء لا تعترف بضوابط البيئة والصحة، تسود فيها شركات النفط والسلاح والعقارات وتحصر صناعة السياسة بها، وهي أميركا التي تقع في صلب مخاطر المواجهات غير المعروفة النتائج، مع سلبيات عدائية تطال كل العالم من روسيا والصين وصولاً الى اوروبا مروراً بإيران سورية وكوريا الشمالية؛ بينما أميركا بايدن هي اميركا مختلفة جذرياً، حيث لم يعد ممكناً الكلام عن رفض العنصرية بالنسبة للسود واللاتينيين من دون تغييرات تشريعية جذرية، ولم يعد ممكناً للطبقات الوسطى وما دونها قبول الإصلاح الاجتماعي والطبي من دون نظام ضرائبي جديد، ولا يمكن الحفاظ على دعم الجماعات البيئية من دون إجراءات حاسمة ستصيب شركات النفط والسلاح في الصميم، وتنظم القطاع العقاري بمعايير يرفضها اصحاب الرأسمال العقاري. وخارجياً هي أميركا العائدة الى محاولة ترميم الجسور التي نسفها ترامب، على قاعدة الاختلاف والندية، لكن ايضاً على قاعدة التعاون والبحث عن الحلول السياسية للنزاعات، في ملف اتفاقية المناخ وملف منظمة الصحة العالمية والملف النووي الإيراني، وملف التفاوض على حلّ يستند لصيغة الدولتين للقضية الفلسطينية.

في أميركا يكثر أنصار المرشحين من استعمال صفة المخلص في توصيف مشروعه وترشيحه، فيما خيار ترامب يعني إصابة وجودية لنصف الأميركيين، وخيار بايدن يعني إصابة وجودياً للنصف الآخر، والأهم من اسم الرابح في الانتخابات هو أن نهاية الانتخابات تعني بداية مسار مصيري خطير للإمبراطورية التي تترنح وتفقد توازنها، ليست الحرب الأهلية مجرد شائعة فيه، بعد قرنين من الصعود المستقر، يصير الشحوب والتراجع خطاً بيانياً مستداماً، والقفزة الى المجهول قاب ساعات أو أكثر، ويصير تفادي الساعة السوداء للسقوط المدوّي للإمبراطورية العظمى بذاته إنجاز غير قابل للتحقق إلا بفوز كاسح لأحد المرشحين، حيث يبدو بايدن هو الأوفر حظاً لتحقيقه، حيث فوزه الضئيل يشكل صاعق التفجير الداخلي للإمبراطورية، وفوزه الكاسح ربما يكون بوليصة تأمينها من التصدع، وربما يكون هذا حافزاً لتصويت غير متوقع لصالحه لتفادي الأسوأ، بحيث يبدو بايدن مشروع مخلص بنظر دعاة وحدة «الأمة الأميركية» من الحزبين لرد الاعتبار للسياسة ولو من موقع أضعف.

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يوم إقليميّ دوليّ فاصل: 18 تشرين الأول

ناصر قنديل

خلال العقدين الأولين من القرن الحادي والعشرين، تحوّل المشهد الدولي القائم من جهة، على وجود مشروع سياسي عسكري اقتصادي للقوة الأميركية العظمى التي فازت بنهاية الحرب الباردة مع سقوط جدار برلين وتفكك الاتحاد السوفياتي، ومن جهة مقابلة على بدء تبلور ممانعة دولية متعددة المصادر لهذا المشروع من قوى كبرى ومتوسطة، على خلفيات مصالح إقتصادية وإستراتيجية قومية تحت عنوان رفض عالم أحادي القطبية، وشكلت روسيا الجديدة مع الصعود السريع للرئيس فلاديمير بوتين، والصين الجديدة مع الصعود التدريجي للرئيس جين بينغ، لكن إيران التي كانت تتعافى من نتائج وتداعيات الحرب التي شنّها النظام العراقي عليها، كانت تدخل معادلة القرن الجديد من باب واسع، فهي تتوسّط قلب المنطقة الساخنة من العالم، التي ستشهد حروب الزعامة الأميركيّة للقرن، وهي الداعم الرئيسي للمقاومة التي انتصرت بتحرير لبنان عام 2000، وقد بدأت برنامجاً نووياً طموحاً ومشاريع للصناعات العسكرية تحاكي مستويات تقنية عالية، وتشكل خط الاشتباك المتقدّم مع المشروع الأميركي ضمن حلف يتعزز ويتنامى على الضفتين الروسية والصينية، ويحاكي خصوصية أوروبية فشل المشروع الأميركي باحتواء تطلعاتها ومخاوفها.

خلال العقدين الماضيين كان الخط البياني التراجعي للمشروع الأميركي، بعد فشل الحروب الأميركية على العراق وافغانستان وسورية والحروب الإسرائيلية المدعومة أميركياً على لبنان وغزة، تعبيراً ضمنياً عن خط بياني صاعد لموقع ومكانة إيران، التي وقفت بصورة مباشرة وغير مباشرة وراء الفشل الأميركي، وفي قلبه صعود في خلفية الصورة لمكانتي روسيا والصين وتقدم لتمايز أوروبي عن السياسات الأميركية، ويمثل ما كان العام 2015 نقطة تحوّل في السياسة الدولية، مع توقيع الاتفاق الدولي بقيادة أميركية مع إيران على ملفها النووي. كان هذا الاتفاق تسليماً بمكانة إيران الجديدة، دولياً وإقليمياً.

جاء الانسحاب الأميركي من الاتفاق النووي ترجمة لهجوم معاكس يقوده ثلاثي أميركي إسرائيلي خليجي، يقوم على إنكار حقائق المواجهات السابقة، ومحاولة لصياغة معادلات بديلة، وكان عنوان هذا الهجوم على جبهتين، جبهة إقليميّة تشكلت من جهة على ترجمة الحلف الجديد بمشروع إقليميّ حمل اسم صفقة القرن لحل القضية الفلسطينية وعزل إيران عن التأثير بمساراتها، وانتهى بالتطبيع الخليجي الإسرائيلي من جهة وتوحّد الساحة الفلسطينية كمعني أول بالمواجهة، خلف شعارات المقاومة التي تدعمها إيران. من جهة موازية، كانت الجبهة الثانية دولية تشكلت على خلفية السعي لتعميم نظام العقوبات وصولاً لخنق الاقتصاد الإيراني، وفرض تفاوض جديد بشروط جديدة عليها، وكانت النتيجة من جهة تعاظم الضغوط الناتجة عن العقوبات الأميركيّة القصوى على إيران، ومن جهة موازية عزلة أميركية دولية في فرض منهج العقوبات على إيران، وفشل واسع في الحصول على دعم أمميّ لها، بما تخطى الرفض التقليدي لروسيا والصين لسياسة العقوبات، مع انضمام أوروبا إلى المصوّتين ضد الدعوة الأميركية.

في 18 تشرين الأول عام 2020، يسقط بموجب الاتفاق النووي، الحظر الأممي على السلاح بيعاً وشراء بالنسبة لإيران، بعد محاولات مستميتة فاشلة بذلتها واشنطن لتجديد الحظر، وكان واضحاً ان إيران بذلت جهوداً دبلوماسية معاكسة مع اوروبا تضمنت ضبط إيقاع المواقف الإيرانية من الاتفاق النووي بما يحفظ بقاءه كإطار دبلوماسي قانوني على قيد الحياة، وقد كانت فرصة اللقاء مع وزير الخارجية الإيرانية محمد جواد ظريف في مطلع العام بعد نهاية زيارة مفوض السياسات الخارجية في الاتحاد الأوروبي جوزف بوريل إلى طهران، مناسبة لسماع موقف إيراني عنوانه، انتظروا 18 تشرين، إنه الموعد الفاصل بين مرحلتين، والفوز الإيراني بحلول هذا الموعد وتثبيت حق إيران بسقوط حظر السلاح عنها، سيكون فاتحة مرحلة جديدة نوعيّة، يتقاطع انطلاقها زمنياً من باب الصدفة مع اقتراب الاستحقاق الرئاسي الأميركي.

للذين هوّلوا علينا بأن ضمّ الضفة يفسّر كل شيء!‏

ناصر قنديل

خلال شهور تعضّ خلالها الأزمات المعيشية على أكباد الناس الذين يشكلون مجموع البيئات الحاضنة للمقاومة، تدحرجت روايات ونظريات وتحليلات، كان بينها ما يتحدّث عن حرب مقبلة يتم التمهيد لها بالتجويع، وبينها ما يبشر بانقلابات سياسية يحدثها التهديد بالعقوبات، فتتفكك التحالفات التي بنتها ونسجتها المقاومة من حولها خلال سنوات، وبينها ما يروي لنا سردية مفادها أن كل ما كنّا نشهده من أحداث، حتى ما تعتبره المقاومة انتصارات لها وترصده في خانة هزائم المشروع الأميركي، لم يكن إلا واجهة القشرة للأحداث، حيث العمق هو ما كان يدبّره لنا الأميركي ويشركنا في إنتاجه، ففي كل مرحلة كان هناك هدف يجري تمريره، وكانت الحرائق تنتج الدخان اللازم لتمويهه. وبالطبع كان التدقيق في السردية يتيح لكل متمعن تفكيكها، فالأميركي لم يربح في حرب العراق ولا كيان الاحتلال ربح في حرب تموز 2006، ولا غزة سقطت أو انتحرت، ولا اليمن الجائع والمحاصر رفع الراية البيضاء، ولا إيران التي بنت وطوّرت كل شيء في الصناعة والزراعة والتقنيات والسياسات، تراجعت وتنازلت، وصارت تبحث عن تسويات الفتات، ولا سورية التي كادت تُمحى عن الخريطة كدولة رضخت وخضعت، بل الذي حدث هو العكس، إيران زادت قوة وها هي ناقلاتها النفطية على سواحل فنزويلا تتحدّى الأميركي، وسورية تستعيد سيطرة جيشها في أغلب الجغرافيا التي سلبت منها بحروب جنّدت لها الدول الكبرى حكومات وكيانات المنطقة الكثير الكثير، وغزة تهدّد بصواريخها عمق الكيان، واليمن الجريح يُمسك بناصية أمن الطاقة في الخليج، والمقاومة تمتلك ما طال انتظار امتلاكه، من تقنيات عسكرية، فتعلن التهديد بقلب الطاولة.

المهم في السردية أنها قالت إن ما يجري من حرب تجويع له وظيفة واحدة، هي التمهيد لتطبيق الجزء الخاص بضمّ الضفة الغربية من صفقة القرن. وهو القرار الذي كان وعد رئيس حكومة الاحتلال بنيامين نتنياهو مستوطنيه بأنه سيعلَن في الأول من تموز، وكتبنا قبل ذلك التاريخ بكثير، أنه لن يجرؤ على تنفيذه، كما كتبنا من أيام أعلنت صفقة القرن أنها ولدت ميتة، وعلتنا التي نستند إليها، تقوم في جوهرها على معادلتين، الأولى أن القصف المركز أو العشوائي ليس دائماً للتمهيد لهجوم بل هو أيضاً يكون تغطية للانسحاب فعلينا التبين بين الأمرين قبل الوقوع في الخطأ القاتل، فنتعامل مع الانسحاب كأنه هجوم، والثانية أن الخط البياني الذي حكم العالم منذ 1990 حتى 2020، هو خط يرسم مستقبله بثباته من دون تعرجات، فالأميركي لم يعُد قطعاً الأميركي الذي كان يوم سقوط جدار برلين وتفكك الاتحاد السوفياتي، وروسيا لم تعد تلك الدولة المفكّكة التائهة، والصين لم تعد ذلك المشروع الباحث عن القوت لملايين الأفواه الباحثة عن الطعام، وإيران لم تعد كما كانت عام 1990 الدولة الخارجة من حرب دمّرت فيها كل شيء، وكيان الاحتلال لم يعد كما كان فهو اليوم عاجز عن الحرب وعاجز عن التسوية التي تشق صفوف السياسة والقوة والشعوب في المنطقة، والعراق ولبنان وفلسطين، وسورية واليمن، كلها متغيّرات تقول إن الخط البياني هو ما لخصته الدراسة المنشورة مؤخراً في مجلة السياسات الخارجية الأميركية فورين افيرز، عن سقوط الاستراتيجيات في القدرة على التوقع والاستباق.

المهم أن النقاش لم يعُد ضرورياً في التحليل والاستقراء، فقد اتضحت الصورة بالوقائع، كيان الاحتلال لا يحتمل تداعيات قرار الضم، والأميركي لا يستطيع توفير وسائل الحماية من هذه التداعيات، فصار المخرج المناسب تقاسم الأدوار بين مؤيد ومعارض، ليكون الإعلان عن التأجيل، وهو تأجيل بمقام الإلغاء لأنه انتظار لظروف أفضل لن تأتي، والعقوبات مستمرة والتجويع مستمر، لكنهما قصف لتغطية انسحاب أميركي يحتاج إلى شرطين لحماية كيان الاحتلال مما بعد الانسحاب وخطر وقوعه في الاستفراد امام محور مقاومة ينمو ويزداد قوة، وهو يعرضهما للتفاوض للمقايضة بالعقوبات، وقد أعلن واحد منهما المبعوث الأميركي لسورية جيمس جيفري، في عرضه حول قانون قيصر، مطالباً بالعودة بسورية إلى ما قبل عام 2011، أي التسليم بسيطرة الجيش السوري حتى حدوده آنذاك، وصولاً لنشر القوات الدولية على حدود الجولان المحتل، والمقايضة بين انسحاب أميركي تركي مقابل انسحاب إيران وقوى المقاومة، وعرض الثاني معاون وزير الخارجية الأميركية، ديفيد شينكر في أطروحته حول الأزمة المالية اللبنانية التي وجّه الاتهامات لحزب الله بالمسؤولية عنها، قائلاً في ختام كلامه، لديكم ثروات واعدة بالنفط والغاز في البحر ولديكم نزاع مع «إسرائيل» حولها، وأنتم في ضائقة، وقد عرضنا لكم تصوراً لحل النزاع فاقبلوا هذا التصور.

القضية تكمن في أن قوى المقاومة تعتقد انها تملك القدرة على تحمل حرب العقوبات، ومواجهة فرضيات التجويع، ولديها لكل منهما دواء وبدائل، ومعهما تثق بقدرتها على التمسك برفض عروض التفاوض، على أوهام السعي لتسوير كيان الاحتلال بتفاهمات أمنيّة تحميه، وهذا يفيض عن امتلاك القدرة اللازمة لإسقاط طموحات التوغل والتوحّش التي يتضمنها مشروع ضمّ الضفة الذي سيكون بانتظاره إن حصل، تصاعد في المواجهة الشعبية والمسلحة، قد يصل نحو لحظة الحرب الكبرى، أو يصل لاستيلاد نماذج متكررة عن غزة المحررة في قلب الضفة وربما قلب الأراضي المحتلة عام 1948، وربما كانت رسالة المقاومة بكلام السيد حسن نصرالله ورسالة الإعلام الحربي، دورها في إفهام من يجب أن يفهم.

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