All the way to Odessa

August 27, 2022

by Pepe Escobar, posted with the author’s permission and widely cross-posted

Dmitry Medvedev, relishing his unplugged self, has laid down the law on the Special Military Operation (SMO). Bluntly, he affirmed there is a “one and a half” scenario: either to go all the way, or a military coup d’Etat in Ukraine followed by admitting the inevitable. No tertium applies.

That’s as stark as it gets: the leadership in Moscow is making it very clear, to internal and international audiences, the new deal consists in slow cooking the Kiev racket inside a massive cauldron while polishing its status of financial black hole for the collective West. Until we reach boiling point – which will be a revolution or a putsch.

In parallel, The Lords of (Proxy) War will continue with their own strategy, which is to pillage an enfeebled, fearful, Europe, then dressing it up as a perfumed colony to be ruthlessly exploited ad nauseam by the imperial oligarchy.

Europe is now a runaway TGV – minus the requisite Hollywood production values. Assuming it does not veer off track – a dicey proposition – it may eventually arrive at a railway station called Agenda 2030, The Great Narrative, or some other NATO/Davos denomination du jour.

As it stands, what’s remarkable is how the “marginal” Russian economy hardly broke a sweat to “end the abundance” of the wealthiest region on the planet.

Moscow does not even entertain the notion of negotiating with Brussels because there’s nothing to negotiate – considering puny Eurocrats will only be hurled away from their zombified state when the dire socio-economic consequences of “the end of abundance” will finally translate into peasants with pitchforks roaming the continent.

It may be eons away, but inevitably the average Italian, German or Frenchman will connect the dots and realize it is their own “leaders” – national nullities and mostly unelected Eurocrats – who are paving their road to poverty.

You will be poor. And you will like it. Because we are all supporting freedom for Ukrainian neo-nazis. That brings the concept of “multicultural Europe” to a whole new level.

The runaway train, of course, may veer off track and plunge into an Alpine abyss. In this case something might be saved from the wreckage – and “reconstruction” might be on the cards. But reconstruct what?

Europe could always reconstruct a new Reich (collapsed with a bang in 1945); a soft Reich (erected at the end of WWII); or break with its past failures, sing “I’m Free” – and connect with Eurasia. Don’t bet on it.

Get back those Taurian lands

The SMO may be about to radically change – something that will drive the already clueless denizens of US Think Tankland and their Euro vassals even more berserk.

President Putin and Defense Minister Shoigu have been giving serious hints the only way for the pain dial is up – considering the mounting evidence of terrorism inside Russian territory; the vile assassination of Darya Dugina; non-stop shelling of civilians in border regions; attacks on Crimea; the use of chemical weapons; and the shelling of Zaporizhzhya power plant raising the risk of a nuclear catastrophe.

This past Tuesday, one day before the SMO completing six months, Crimea’s permanent representative to the Kremlin, Georgy Muradov, all but spelled it out.

He stressed the necessity to “reintegrate all the Taurian lands” – Crimea, the Northern Black Sea and the Azov Sea – into a single entity as soon as “in the next few months”. He defined this process as “objective and demanded by the population of these regions.”

Muradov added, “given not only the strikes on Crimea, but also the continuous shelling of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, the dam of the Kakhovka reservoir, peaceful facilities on the territory of Russia, the DNR and LNR, there are all preconditions to qualify the actions of the Banderite regime as terrorist.”

The conclusion is inevitable: “the political issue of changing the format of the special military operation” enters the agenda. After all, Washington and Brussels “have already prepared new anti-Crimean provocations of the NATO-Bandera alliance”.

So when we examine what the “restoration of the Taurian lands” implies, we see not only the contours of Novorossiya but most of all that there won’t be any security for Crimea – and thus Russia – in the Black Sea without Odessa becoming Russian again. And that, on top of it, will solve the Transnistria dilemma.

Add to it Kharkov – the capital and top industrial center of Greater Donbass. And of course Dnipropetrovsk. They are all SMO objectives, the whole combo to be later protected by buffer zones in Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts.

Only then the “tasks” – as Shoigu calls them – of the SMO would be declared fulfilled. The timeline could be eight to ten months – after a lull under General Winter.

As the turbo-charged SMO rolls on, it’s a given the Empire of Chaos, Lies and Plunder will continue to prop up and weaponize the Kiev racket till Kingdom Come – and that will apply especially after the Return of Odessa. What’s unclear is who and what gang will be left in Kiev posing as the ruling party and doing specials for Vogue while duly fulfilling the mass of imperial diktats.

It’s also a given the CIA/MI6 combo will be refining non-stop the contours of a massive guerrilla war against Russia in multiple fronts – crammed with terror attacks and all sorts of provocations.

Yet in the Bigger Picture it’s the inevitable Russian military victory in Donbass and then “all the Taurian lands” that will hit the collective West like a lethal asteroid. The geopolitical humiliation will be unbearable; not to mention the geoeconomic humiliation for vassalized Europe.

As Eurasian integration will become an even stronger vector, Russian diplomacy will be solidifying the new normal. Never forget that Moscow had no trouble normalizing relations, for instance, with China, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Israel. All these actors, in different ways, directly contributed to the fall of the USSR. Now – with one exception – they are all focused on The Dawn of the Eurasian Century.

Logistical nightmares for the Ukrainian army

July 24, 2022


By Batko Milacic

In early July, right after Lisichansk was won by the Russian forces, the Russian military and its allies from DNR and LNR, put on display there a large number of captured Ukrainian military equipment. Rows of tanks, rocket launchers and armored vehicles stretched for hundreds of meters. All this was seized by the Russians in just one sector of the front alone. Let’s be honest, most of the Western military assistance to Ukraine is quickly destroyed or falls into the hands of the Russian military, without having any significant impact on the course of the war, and successful exceptions like the US-supplied M142 HIMARS only confirm the rule. Why is this happening?

The whole thing might be pretty simple: while receiving Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, Javelin anti-tank systems and French Ceasar self-propelled guns, the Ukrainian army must quickly switch to a single NATO standard, strengthen its combat capability in the wish to stop Russian army. On closer examination, however, it turns out that everything is way more complicated. The unified NATO standard is mainly associated with the calibers of ammunition, and not with the unification of equipment. It is impossible to switch from the German “Leopard” to the French “Leclerc” without a long and serious preparation. A good MRLS operator, used to the Soviet-designed Grad, will not be able to handle America’s famous HIMARS. Each weapon system handed over to Kyiv also requires special retraining of Ukrainian military specialists. And this is just the tip of the iceberg though.

The delivery of one or two self-propelled guns with perfectly trained crews may look good in propaganda videos, but it turns into a logistical nightmare for the Ukrainian military suppliers. Full-fledged confrontation with the enemy requires units trained and equipped with unified weapons, not a battery recruited from different European and Soviet models using five different types of shells. All of them need different parts and accessories. Moreover, gun and tank crews will most likely be unable to replace each other. They are trained to fight with different models of high-tech weapons systems.

This is actually why the Eastern European countries are delivering to Ukraine what is left of their old Warsaw Pact-era stockpiles, not the latest European models. After all, mass-scale training of specialists takes months and calls for multiple instructors. The Kyiv authorities are having problems even with specialists trained in the use of Soviet-era technology. For example, on July 20, numerous telegram channels posted a video with an elderly Ukrainian tank captain, a reservist, who, after being taken prisoner by the Russians, said that all the junior officers of his brigade were over 45 years old, most of whom had received military training in Soviet universities (in the USSR, reserve officers were trained in civilian universities).

Thus, during the five months of the war in Ukraine, units fully equipped with unified weapons and trained personnel never appeared. All technologically advanced weapons are being spread across the frontline complicating the work of the Ukrainian military headquarters and turning the units receiving them into prime targets for Russian troops. The M142 HIMARS has been no exception. Due to their high efficiency and range, they have been able to inflict losses to the Russian army, damaging a strategically important bridge and destroying several military depots. However, these units immediately became hunted ones, and before very long the Russian military command provided evidence of the destruction of some such systems. In fact, the Western-trained crews of these multiple rocket launchers are now like kamikazes, whose mission is to inflict as much damage as possible before they die. But is the Ukrainian military really willing to play this role?

Right now, the correct use of Western assistance should be the topmost priority for the Ukrainian command. That is the formation of units equipped with single-standard weapons and thorough training of their personnel. Only then will the latest Western weaponry be able to stop the unhurried but consistent Russian advance.

This, however, is hardly possible amid continuous Russian missile strikes. Besides, training hundreds of military specialists fast is almost mission impossible. Guided by political considerations, President Zelensky is forcing his military to move the advanced Western-supplied weapons to the frontlines as quickly as possible with no regard for the supply of ammunition and components for these systems. As a result, instead of bringing victory to Kyiv, these weapons either burn down in Donetsk woodlands or end up as exhibits at Russian displays of captured Ukrainian weapons. Meanwhile, middle-aged Ukrainian soldiers – the last Soviet generation – are fighting on old Polish T-72, which they learned to drive 35 years ago. We see the results of such a policy in Ukraine, Kiev has less and less army and more and more losses on the front every day.

Hard times are coming for HIMARS

In war, there are major battles and minor battles. Main and secondary, crucial and those that are not. There are also skirmishes that are sometimes as significant as some battles. One two-day “event“ will certainly affect the further course of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine. Ever since they received the American HIMARS multi-barrel rocket launchers, the Ukrainian generals have become emboldened. On July 20, their subordinates fired two platoons of six rockets at the Antonovsky bridge across the Dnieper in the Kherson region. There are 11 holes left on the bridge.
Some of the holes in the bridge

This happened amid announcements from Kiev that a Ukrainian “counter-offensive in the south” would follow. Exactly to the Kherson region. With the aim of regaining control over it and defeating and destroying the Russian army on the right bank of the Dnieper. However, what followed was what neither the military leadership in Kiev nor the numerous American, British, German and Polish officers who were fighting invisibly on the Ukrainian side had expected.

A battery of S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems arrived from Crimea in the Kherson region – with the task of defending the Antonovsky Bridge. On July 21, the Ukrainians tried two new platoons. Again with long-range rockets that American satellites and Avax guide to the target. But the S-400 intercepted and shot down all 12 missiles launched.
The Antonovsky bridge is strategically important for both sides

Thus, the S-400 reduced to zero the American myth that the missiles of their multi-barrel rocket launchers are uncatchable (undefeatable). This is a hint that more and more new S-400 systems will arrive in Ukraine in the coming days. To close the sky over strategic objects under Russian control and over ongoing operations. At the same time, the Russian army began serious preparations for the complete destruction of HIMARS.

Sitrep Operation Z: Yes, it is ‘The Grind’

May 22, 2022


by Saker Staff

This is a short sitrep just to bring the latest information together.  First, Brian Berletic does a fine job of describing the battlefield for us, without drowning it in detail.  He makes a lot of sense and touches on those ‘wonderful M777 howitzers’, which, if we believe the Wurlitzer Media, are making a decisive difference.  Well, they are not.

A summary of Berletic’s update for Russian military operations in Ukraine for May 21, 2022:

  1. Ukrainian militants in the Azovstal steel works have unconditionally surrendered numbering between hundreds (current Red Cross count) to thousands according to Russian sources;
  2. Mariupol has been secured by Russia since mid to late-April – Ukraine finally admits however that its “combat operations” have fully ended;
  3. Russia continues to make progress in the Donbas region – Ukrainian forces are being encircled in Severodonestsk and Lysychansk – the salient around Papasnya is expanding both west and north as part of this major encirclement;
  4. Pentagon admits Russia still poses the majority of its combat power – possess a “numerical advantage” over Ukraine – and is making “slow, uneven” progress, but progress nonetheless;
  5. Kharkov “offensive” has either stalled or is in the process of being rolled back;
  6. US M777 howitzers have been found, tracked, targeted, and destroyed by Russian forces;
  7. Additional attempts to send heavy weapons will face similar technical, tactical, strategic, and manpower challenges;$/embed/russian-ops-in-ukraine-ukraine-losing/c9d121ac03c4c4841aec214bf5a17b178aa4efee

While ‘The Grind’ continues, take a look at Brian’s update in order to fully understand the shape of the battlefield according to Readovka’s short machine translated report:

Kharkiv Front. Medium-intensity fights. The collision occurs in the area of the village of Liptsy and Rubezhnoye.

The Izyum front. One of the most stressful areas. Serious battles are taking place near Kurulka, Velikaya Kamyshevakha, and Dolgenky. The military is heading for the encirclement of the Krasnolimansk group. The front is leaning towards Slavyansk.

Luhansk front. The offensive of groups of fighters continues in several directions from Popasna, the main one of which is now Severodonetsk. Thanks to the destruction of the automobile bridge between Lisichansk and Severodonetsk, the situation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the latter is becoming increasingly difficult. Fighters go to Vozdvizhenka, threatening to cut the route “Artemovsk-Svetlodarsk”, fight in Pilipchatino, directly on the way to Artemovsk. An active clash near the Soledar-Lisichansk highway, a cauldron is being erected for the Gorsky and Zolotoye grouping, battles in Viktorovka, Kamyshevakha, on the approaches to Vrubovka, Toshkovka.

Donetsk front. Heavy fighting continues at Novobakhmutovka and Novoselovka-Vtoroi, as well as near New York. In the area of Marinka and Ugledar, there are no changes yet.

In Russia. They were applied on the villages of the Kursk border area-Tetkino and Popovo-Lezhachi, as reported by the governor of Starovoit. The Ukrainian Armed Forces also shelled Gorlovka, hitting the surrounding villages of Panteleimonovka and Aksenovka. Over Ilovaisk, where a large train with humanitarian aid arrived, was shot down of “Tochka-U”, two women were injured.

What is heartwarming is Graham Philips with a short video essay of Mariupol coming back to life. However, the area was extensively mined, and currently de-mining is underway by the DNR / Russia side, before any journalistic access is permitted.

The size of the Russian Aid to liberated areas is massive.  The Donbass Aid Train arrived in Ilovaisk. It was formed on the initiative of the All-Russian People’s Front and Russian Railways.  It departed from Moscow, consisted of 68 wagons, of which 27 were intended for the LPR, and 41 for the liberated territories of the DPR. This is more than 2,400 tons of humanitarian cargo: food, personal hygiene products, medicines, flour, stationery, building materials and equipment, generators.

Zelensky babbled on about ‘diplomatic solutions’ but he changes daily, as Lavrov says, depending on what he had to drink or what he smoked.

Remember the Russian Pain Dial?  We’re seeing it being notched up slowly.  Russia bans 963 Americans.  Is this tit for tat?  Not really: it is anything you can do we can triple up on!  The political and diplomatic landscape is heating up and in this next week we will see some of that being reported on.  Major new reveals came in this past week on the biolabs issue.  Pepe Escobar weighs in via his Telegram channel.

The big news is more tests of Sarmat.  🔎 “…today, they say that air defense does not exist for the Sarmat missile system, and it probably will not exist in the coming decades,” Commander of Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces, Col. Gen. Sergei Karakaev, says.

That is it for today. Enjoy your discussion and be careful with the Ukie propaganda. It is everywhere.

Three important missile strikes (UPDATED!)

March 14, 2022

First, as the entire western press is clamoring in impotent range, Russia has fire 8 Kalibr missiles at a major NATO base in western Ukraine.  The base is utterly destroyed and there are many (well over 180+) dead mercenaries and even more wounded ones.  The base was near the Polish border which, of course, triggered even more hysterics.

What is important about this strike is this: Russia has just proven to the world that she can “reach” as far as she wants and that her conventional strikes can be truly crippling.  That, of course, also means that as soon as any western mercenary crosses the Ukrainian border he will have a crosshairs painted on him.

Ever since the first Ukie civil war, the Nazis have been organizing what they called “safaris” where wealthy western Nazis could pay a lump sum to then travel to the Donbass and shoot some Snow Niggers.  Of course, the problem with this concept that sometimes you could mistakenly hit a soldier rather than a civilian and that this Snow Nigger would shoot back.

So now, instead of asking Nazis to pay to kill Snow Niggers, now the Ukies (and their US masters, of course) are willing to pay Nazis to come a fight the Snow Niggers.  And Iavorov in western Ukraine, hundreds of miles away from the LOC must have felt extremely safe and cozy.  This is now this facility is described in an interview of the Mayor of Lvov by the Israeli website Ynet:

Those who were there a week ago said that some 100,000 men, some of them are new recruits, were at the base, undergoing a fast-track army training before going into battle. It appears the Russian intelligence received a tip on the actions in the base, before deciding to bomb it.

True, in the same interview, the said mayor claimed “at least 35”!

This is what this major NATO facility looks like today, judge for yourself:

It should be noted that this base was also a huge weapons depot for weapons brought in by land, from Poland, and that all this western kit is now reduced to a gigantic Lego pieces dump.

By the way, there are many more such facilities in the Ukraine!

The base on the far left indicated as “International Center for Peacekeeping and Security”,Iaworow, Lvov oblast” (международный центр миротворчества и безопасности, Яворов, Львовская обл.) is the one the Russian destroyed!  yes, it was labeled “Peacekeeping and Security”, I kid you not!

I don’t know who taught whom to lie like that – NATO and Nazis are both specialists in that field, really – but to call a military base which was supposed to bring a full brigade (several thousand!!) of Nazi volunteers a “peacekeeping security center” is truly precious, even by the rather lax standards of the Empire of Lies.

Then there was this strike, also in the Ukraine:

What you see here is the result of a Ukie strike on the Donetsk city center today.

The Ukies fired a Tochka-U missile precisely at downtown Donetsk.

Military value from this strike?  Zero.

Feelgood value from this strike?  Immense!

And no, this is NOT a war crime!  This is how the glorious glorious armed forces of the Nazi Ukraine take just revenge against Russia and the “separs” who dare to support her.

Russia exposed to the world’s contempt

You cannot compare the innocent mercenaries to those criminal civilians, because the former act in the name of humanity civilization and progress whereas the latter are russki brutes, Mongols really, who represent a threat for the wonderful White and Christian European civilization.

In fact, when the western doubleplusgoodthinkers proclaim with indignation that the Ukrainian civil war (well, the two Ukie civil wars really) killed 14’000 people, they “forget” to mention that the vast majority of those killed where civilians from the LDNR and that for YEARS the LDNR forces did not reply to Ukie attacks, not just sniper or mortar fire, but also heavy artillery strikes and major terrorist attacks, including the President of the DNR.

But that matters nothing to the Empire of Lies.

But now that a sad and ugly group of bona fide Nazi volunteers got hit on a military base (a legitimate target under international law and the laws of war specifically!) we hear a massive “oy veh!!!” rising to the heavens and demanding that Russia be severely punished for daring to shoot at those wannabe Kulturträgers!

I think that it would be fair to summarize The Rule as follows: we get to kill as many Snow Niggers as we want, but Snow Niggers dare not kill any of our White and Christian Kulturträgers.

Speaking of niggers, here is another important missile strike.

The Iranian Sand Niggers used their (very accurate) missiles to obliterate a Mossad base in Iraqi Kurdistan.  Now that, what shall we call it? maybe a “Jewish Cultural Center” or maybe a “Iraqi Law Center against Antisemitism” has been turned into this:

Interestingly, the IRGC indicated that the operation was in response to an Israeli airstrike on the Syrian capital of Damascus last Monday, in which two IRGC officers were killed.  Apparently, the Iranian Snow Niggers do not believe that the Jewish Kulturträgers  get to kill them without retaliation.

Most interestingly, following this strike the Israelis have copied the US “counter-attack philosophy” and… …done exactly nothing about this!  The story is mostly buried deep in the Israeli media, which doesn’t deny or cover it up, it just mentions them en passant and then goes on to other topics (including lots of anti-Russian pro-Ukie coverage of the Russian’s special operation in the Ukraine).

Here is the simple truth: the Empire of Lies cannot afford a full-scale with against Russia and China:  that we already knew, but it can’t even take on Iran, in spite of that country being much smaller and comparatively weaker.  But what the Iranians do have truly formidable weapons, and I am not referring to their (actually quite formidable) missiles, but by their political will and courage to use their missiles against *any* enemy.

An often-repeated story is that the Iranian hero and martyr General Soleimani personally visited Moscow and convinced the Russians to launch their military intervention in Syria.  This inspires two hopes in me:

  • I hope to see Moscow at least once more before my time down here is up and that day I hope to be able to bring flowers to a large statue of General Soleimani somewhere in Moscow, maybe in the place were the Pushkin Square McDonalds (due to close today, not a day too soon, thank you sanctions!!!) stood all these years?  Or maybe right in front of the US Embassy in Moscow which, by then, I hope to see vacated by the servants of the Empire of Lies and, maybe, replaced by a US Music Center (Jazz, Blues, Country, Gospel, Appalachian and many other kinds of beautiful US music.) or, maybe, an exhibit like the one the Iranians did with the CIA station in Tehran? Something beautiful and inspiring for sure.

By the time I see Russia, maybe for a last time, I hope that the spirit and ethos of General Soleimani will “infect” all the Russian ruling elites and give them the morality and courage they currently so clearly lack.

God willing, God willing!

It is too early for any maps right now (dragon-first-1 was told by persons in high positions to stop making and posting his while Radovka is slow), but if I see something interesting, I will post it here.


PS: Radovka just posted this map, so I share it with you

Russia wanted peace with Ukraine

February 24, 2022


by Batko Milacic

Ukraine has been firmly in the U.S. geopolitical orbit since violent neo-Nazi protests in Kyiv’s Maidan Square resulted in the 2014 overthrow of the allegedly pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych. Yet, Russia did not attempt to help the then-Ukrainian leader stay in power. As a result, anti-Russian forces came to power in Kyiv, leading the people of the Donbass region to vote in favor of leaving Ukraine.

In 2014, Russia also recognized the results of the Ukrainian presidential election, organized by the post-Maidan authorities. Mr. Lavrov even called newly elected President Petro Poroshenko the “best chance” for Ukraine. Eight years later, Russia has completely changed its rhetoric on Ukraine.

“I don’t think anyone can claim that the Ukrainian regime, since the 2014 coup d’état, represents all the people living on the territory of the Ukrainian state,” said Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on February 22.

The reason for this change in Russian attitude is the acts that the Ukrainian government is committing against Russians and all other citizens who speak Russian in Ukraine. Ukraine waged a kind of “jihad“ against the Russian language and culture.

From January 16, 2020, Ukraine translated all its services into Ukrainian by force of law. So: all shops, cafes and restaurants, banks and pharmacies had to comply with this shameful law. All employees have become obliged to communicate with customers – guests and clients – exclusively in Ukrainian. The Russian language has become completely banned. The mass media also came under attack from Ukrainization. Now, 75 percent of programs on national television are broadcasted in the Ukrainian language, and by 2024, the obligation will be – 90 percent.(1)

All these actions of the Ukrainian government, which have clear elements of fascism, forced pro –Russian forces in Ukraine to react. That is why there were riots in Ukraine with the desire to separate large parts of the territory from Ukraine.

It is clear to all analysts dealing with Ukraine that today`s Ukraine is United States instrument against Russia.

The fact that Kiev received at least $200 million in U.S. “lethal aid” as well as other Western-made weapons over the past two months, means that Kiev rejects a peaceful solution. And Russian President Vladimir Putin has been offering this peaceful solution for years.

Such an operation undoubtedly means war. But war is inevitable, one way or another. Russia has deployed troops to the newly recognized Donbass republics. If Ukrainian forces do not end hostilities, the Russian Army is will to engage in a direct confrontation against Ukrainian army, in order to protect the innocent citizens of DNR and LNR. Sooner or later, the Donbass conflict will escalate. Shelling has increased along the entire front line, which seems to be part of preparations for a military offensive.

That several Western countries have moved their embassies from Kyiv to the western Ukrainian city of Lviv, and that around 10 airlines have canceled their flights to Ukraine, suggests the breakout of war is just a matter of time.

However, the fact that several Western countries have moved their embassies from Kyiv to the western Ukrainian city of Lviv, and that around 10 airlines have canceled their flights to Ukraine, suggests the breakout of war is just a matter of time.

Because of all the above in Moscow a conference was held which was attended by analysts, historians, journalists and political scientists from many countries around the world. A conference was held in the Civil Council of the Russian Federation on the topic: “Eight years of the illegal coup in Ukraine – results and consequences”:

Participants summed up the events around Ukraine, as well as the attitude of the West towards this issue. The round table was opened and moderated by Maxim Grigoriev, a member of the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation, director of the Foundation for Research on Democracy, who began his speech by summarizing the results of eight years since the coup in Kiev.

“The political results of Euromaidan are even sadder than the economic ones,” he said.

“This includes war crimes – deliberate shelling of women and children in Donbas. We see what is happening inside Ukraine, it is the fight against dissidents, when those who do not share the views of the country’s leadership are killed, arrested, kidnapped. This includes the fight against TV channels, including “Ukrainian death squads” – “Azov”, “Right Sector”. They kill dissidents and are trained by the same instructors who prepared “death squads” in Latin America concluded Mr Grigoriev.


Russia’s Security Council Recommends To Recognize The Donbas Republics

February 21, 2022

Updated (again) below

The Russian National Security Council has been meeting today to discuss the recognition of the Donetzk People’s Republic (DNR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) as independent states.

The whole meeting was shown on public TV. RT-English provided a live translation. The purpose of the show was to present Russia’s arguments to an international public.


Last week the Russian parliament submitted a resolution which asked the president of Russia to recognize the DNR and LNR. Earlier today the leaders of the DNR and LNR made a formal official request to recognize their republics.

The security council heard the opinions of the prime minister, foreign minister and defense minister. The leaders of parliament and of the security services also spoke.


The military reported that earlier today a group of Ukrainian saboteurs had tried to cross onto Russian ground but was prevent from doing so. A published video of the incident showed two burning BMP infantry fighting vehicles. Russia says that five of the intruders have been killed and one of them has been arrested.

Defense minister Shoigu reported that there are some 60,000 Ukrainian soldiers at the border of the DNR and LNR together with more than 500 tanks and lots of artillery. He also pointed out that the Ukrainian president Zelensky had announced that the Ukraine would leave the Budapest agreement and start to build nuclear bombs. He said the Ukraine has the knowledge and means to do that and called the move  extremely dangerous.

It was pointed out that recent artillery attacks had destroyed part of the water supply for Donetzk and that the destruction of a pipeline left many people without gas. This is seen as an emergency situation. Some 70,000 refugees have been received in Russia.

Several members of the security council pointed out that some 700,000 of the 4.6 million inhabitants of the rebellious Donbas region already have a Russian passport, some 500,000 more have applied for one. These are formal Russian citizens which Russia must protect from harm.

All members were of the opinion that the current situation needs a new solution. The Ukrainian government is obviously unwilling to fulfill the Minsk agreements by giving more autonomy to its Donbas region. It is instead trying to regain the region by war.

All were of the opinion that the republics should therefore be recognized. The head of Russia’s foreign intelligence service, Sergey Naryshkin, said the the republics should be integrated into Russia. Putin told him that such a step was not under discussion.

After hearing all opinions Putin said that he would make the decision later today.

What would it mean if Russia recognizes the DNR and LNR as sovereign states? For one – the Minsk agreement, which the Ukraine does not want to implement anyway, would be null and void.

What other steps would follow was not discussed but there are certain possibilities.

The DNR and LNR could ask for a common defense agreement with the Russian Federation. The Russian military could then move into the DNR and LNR.

Neither the DNR nor the LNR incorporate all land that defines the formal administrative Donetzk and Luhansk regions of the Ukraine. The republics, with Russia’S help, could try to extend the border of DNR and LNR to the original administrative borders of those regions. That probably would mean a war which I still find unlikely to happen.

The economic integration of the DNR and LNR into Russia’s economy should be no problem. Both regions are rather rich with minerals like anthracite coal. Both have large industrial installations and a well educated Russian speaking public.

An open question is what the ‘west’ would do if Russia recognizes the republics.

The national security council is expecting more sanctions but several members shrugged them off. They said that sanctions would be imposed anyway no matter what Russia does or does not do. They expect that in the long term the sanctions will increase Russia’s autonomy and expand its economy. The sanctions are also expected to erode over time as Russia offers desirable products and is in itself a large market.

I find it unlikely that the ‘west’ would impose all sanctions it has prepared in response to Russia’s move today. It would the expense of all economic ammunition that can be used against Russia. As Russia still could take more serious action some sanctions must be held back for that eventuality.

Later today Russia’s president Vladimir Putin will give a televised speech to announce his decision.

I will update this post when it is known.


Maxim A. Suchkov @m_suchkov – 18:11 UTC · Feb 21, 2022

⚡#Putin has just had phone calls with @OlafScholz & @EmmanuelMacron. #Kremlin says #Russian president “briefed both leaders on the results of Security Council gathering & told them he is going to respective order [apparently on recognition of LNR/DNR].

Update 18:28 UTC:

The above tweet has now been confirmed by an official Kremlin statement about the phone call (machine translation):

Vladimir Putin had telephone conversations with President of the French Republic Emmanuel Macron and Federal Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany Olaf Scholz.

Vladimir Putin informed about the results of the expanded meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, which considered the current situation around Donbass in the context of the State Duma’s decision on the recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. Today, the leadership of the DPR and LPR received appeals to recognize their sovereignty in connection with the military aggression of the Ukrainian authorities, massive shelling of the territory of Donbass, as a result of which the civilian population suffers.

With all this in mind, the President of Russia said that he intended to sign a relevant decree in the near future.

The President of France and the Federal Chancellor of Germany expressed their disappointment with this development. At the same time, they indicated their readiness to continue contacts.

Update 19:42 UTC:

It has happened. After a TV speech on the development of the Ukraine since the begin of Soviet communism and after laying out the list of Russian grievances with western aggression Putin signed the official recognition of the Donbas republics as independent states. There are now also cooperation agreements on defense and other issues signed by Putin as well as the heads of the Donbas republics.

If the Ukraine continues its war on Donbas Russia will respond with force.

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