So what if the Ottomans shaped the modern world?

So what if the Ottomans shaped the modern world?

May 15, 2021

Erdogan is mesmerized by Calilph Selim but, unlike Machiavelli, he doesn’t fear him; he wants to emulate him

By Pepe Escobar posted with permission and first posted at the Asia Times

Once upon a time in Anatolia, in the late 13th century a Turkic principality – one of many shaped in the wake of the Mongol invasion of the 1240s – consigned the Seljuk Turks to the past and emerged as the Ottoman emirate. It was named after its founder, Osman I.

By the middle of the 15th century, the time of the game-changing conquest of Constantinople by Sultan Mehmet II, the expanding Ottoman empire had absorbed virtually all its neighboring Turkic emirates.

And by the start of the 16th century, what sprang up was a multi-religious and multi-ethnic empire that – pragmatic and tolerant – ruled for four centuries over the Balkans, Anatolia and Southwest Asia.

Talk about a major historical riddle: How did a small principality in the western fringe of what used to be known as Asia Minor turn into what could arguably be defined as Islam’s most important empire? The key to unlocking the riddle may be offered by Sultan Selim I.

God’s Shadow, which in its original English edition (Faber & Faber) is subtitled The Ottoman Sultan Who Shaped the Modern World, may reveal that author Alan Mikhail, chair of the Department of History at Yale, is uniquely qualified to argue the case.

Mehmet II, who with his endless obsession and cunning extinguished the Byzantine empire on the fateful May 29, 1453, when he was only 21, was a larger-than-life figure for peoples of the Mediterranean, the Balkans and Asia Minor.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Left) during an April 17, 2017, visit to the tomb of Yavuz Sultan Selim, a sultan of the former Ottoman Empire 1512-1520, in Istanbul, a day after Erdogan’s victory in a national referendum. Photo : AFP / Yasin Bulbul / Turkish Presidential Press Office

He bridged Europe and Asia. He refashioned Constantinople, renamed Istanbul, into the capital of the sprawling empire. He lorded over the silk roads from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. The Fatih (“Conqueror”) assumed mythical proportions east and west – and even branded himself Caesar, heir to Byzantine emperors.

Mehmet II conquered the Balkans in the 1460s, finished off with Genoese trading colonies in Crimea and imposed vassalage over the Crimean Tatar Khanate in 1478. That meant, in practice, turning the Black Sea into a virtual Ottoman lake.

Author Mikhail stresses right at the start that the Ottoman Empire was the most powerful state on earth – more powerful than the Ming dynasty, not to mention the Safavids – for quite some time. It was the largest empire in the Mediterranean since ancient Rome and “the most enduring” in the history of Islam.

Then he sets the crux of the – explosive – thesis he will develop in detail: “It was the Ottoman monopoly of trade routes with the East, combined with their military prowess on land and on sea, that pushed Spain and Portugal out of the Mediterranean, forcing merchants and sailors from these 15th-century kingdoms to become global explorers as they risked treacherous voyages across oceans and around continents – all to avoid the Ottomans.”

This thesis will be extremely unpalatable to a hegemonic (at least for the past 150 years) West, now confronted with its turbulent decline. Mikhail does his best to show how, “from China to Mexico, the Ottoman empire shaped the known world at the turn of the 16th century.”

Obviously ideological, military and economic competition with the Spanish and Italian states – and then Russia, China and other Islamic states – was no holds barred. Still, Mikhail relishes showing how Columbus, Vasco da Gama, Montezuma, Luther, Tamerlan – one and all “calibrated their actions and defined their very existence in reaction to the reach and grasp of Ottoman power.”

Christopher Columbus taking leave of Isabella of Castile and Ferdinand II of Aragon before setting out on his first voyage to the New World, August 8, 1492. Photo: AFP / Ann Ronan Picture Library

Geoeconomic superpower

It takes a lot of balls for a historian employed by an elite American university to offer a self-described “revolutionary” narrative on the role of Islam and the Ottomans in shaping not only the Old World, but also the New World. Mikhail is fully aware of how this will come as “a bitter pill for many in the West.”

Exit Muslims as the “terrorist.” Exit “the rise of the West.” Enter the Ottomans as a civilizing power. Mikhail is adamant: The practice “since the Industrial Revolution and the so-called glories of the 19th century” of stretching European primacy back to Columbus “is a historical absurdity.” The Ottoman empire “struck fear into the world for centuries before it earned its derogatory 19th-century sobriquet, ‘the sick man of Europe.’”

The fact is that, for all its setbacks, the Ottoman Empire – in over 600 years of history – remained the hegemon in the Middle East and one of the most important states in Europe, Africa and Asia until World War I. From 1453 up to the 19th century, the Ottomans remained “at the center of global politics, economics and war.”

Just imagine. Ottoman armies ruled over vast swaths of Europe, Africa and Asia; the most crucial Silk and non-Silk trade corridors; key city hubs along the Mediterranean, the Red Sea, the Black Sea, the Caspian Sea, the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean. They ruled over Damascus, Istanbul, Cairo, Jerusalem, Mecca and Medina. That’s a long way from their humble beginnings as sheepherders in desolate trails across Central Asia.

And then there’s the ultimate badass: Sultan Selim.

Mikhail spends a great deal of his narrative carefully setting the stage for the eruption of the quintessentially Machiavellian Selim, even before he became Sultan in 1512. Still in Trabzon, in the Black Sea, as provincial governor, consolidating the imperial forces in the East, by 1492 Selim was fully aware how the alliance between Istanbul and Cairo conditioned European trade in what US neo-cons not long ago called the “Greater Middle East.”

The Ottomans and the Mamluks – whom Selim would later destroy as Sultan – controlled all access to the East from the Mediterranean. This geoeconomic fact by itself destroys the fable of European ascendancy during the Renaissance and the much-lauded “Age of Exploration”; it was all about Ottoman control of trade and commerce.

If anyone in Europe wanted to trade with China and India, they would have to adjust to the Ottoman’s “my way or the highway.” The Venetians tried, and it didn’t work. Genoese Columbus went full highway. Mikhail relishes nothing more than showing how the voyages of Columbus, in so many ways, “were a response to the power of the Ottomans.” They were “the political force that shaped Columbus and his generation more than any other.”

Things get positively heavy metal when Columbus is depicted as a Christian jihadi, as “he used the notion of a global civilizational war between Christendom and Islam to push his case for the Atlantic voyage.” Queen Isabella ended up buying it.

And then it all went downhill, in a literally bloody way, as “the vocabulary of war with Islam became the language of the Spanish conquest in the Americas.” The West conveniently forgets that all indigenous peoples were required (Mikhail’s own italics) to acknowledge that the Catholic Church was the universal power and that their own belief systems were absolutely inferior.

From Selim to Erdogan

Machiavelli was a huge fan of the Ottomans, whom he admired and feared. He was particularly impressed by Selim’s strategic acumen, always prevailing over nearly impossible odds. Machiavelli finished The Prince in the exact same year – 1513 – when Selim eliminated his half-brothers to finally secure the Sultanate, which he had conquered in 1512.

Selim started with a bang – with no less than an economic blockade against the Safavids, outlawing the export of Persian silk from the Ottoman empire. (That trade had been how the Iranians reached the Eastern Mediterranean and the lucrative European markets.

Selim casually hanging out with crocodiles in Egypt. Photo: Miniature included in the book

Selim casually hanging out with crocodiles in Egypt. Photo: Miniature included in the book

Selim’s victory over the Safavids in the Battle of Chaldiran was intertwined with something immensely eventful; the Portuguese capture of ultra-strategic Hormuz in 1515. That was the first European possession in the Persian Gulf. And what a prize: The Portuguese would now have control over shipping to and from the Persian Gulf, as well as a key hub linking to their new colonies on India’s west coast.

After the battle between Christians and Muslims crossed the Atlantic, the stage was set for the next chapter: Ottomans and Portuguese fighting for global power in the Indian Ocean.

Selim was on a roll. First he took Syria – incorporating legendary Damascus and Aleppo. Then he smashed the Mamluks – and that meant not only Cairo but also Jerusalem, Mecca, Medina and even Yemen, with its strategic access to the Indian Ocean and infinite possibilities for Ottoman commerce, starting with a monopoly on the silk trade.

The Selim Sultanate lasted only 8 years, from 1512 to 1520 – with geopolitical tectonic plates moving non-stop. Luther plunged Christianity into a religious civil war. The Ottomans controlled more territory around the Mediterranean than any other power. The European imperial drive hit the Indian Ocean. And then there was the ultimate theological challenge presented by the ultimate Other: Native Americans, north and south. They could not possibly be part of “God’s creation.”

When he died in 1520, Selim – sultan and also caliph – thought that being the ruler of the world’s largest empire was a given. He was, indeed, “God’s shadow on Earth.”

By the end of the last chapter in the book, “American Selim,” Mikhail again tackles the most burning question: why (his italics) Columbus had to cross the Atlantic. In a nutshell: “Hoping for an alliance with the Grand Khan of the East, he aimed to retake Jerusalem and destroy Islam; more prosaically, his voyages promised an end-run around the trade monopolies of the Ottomans and the Mamluks.”

After Columbus arrived in the Americas, Europeans inevitably filtered their experiences “through the lens of their wars with Muslims” and engaged “in a new version of their very old Crusades, a new kind of Catholic jihad.” Nevertheless, “Islam would continue to forge the histories of both Europe and the New World and the relationship between the two.”

After so much drama, Mikhail and the book’s editors still manage to present an outstanding image in the next before the last page: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ceremoniously staring at Selim’s tomb in Istanbul in 2017, after winning a constitutional referendum that expanded his powers enormously.

Like Machiavelli, Erdogan is mesmerized by Selim. But, unlike Machiavelli, he does not fear him; he wants to emulate him. What – weaponized – imperial dreams still lurk in the mind of the neo-Ottoman sultan?

The forthcoming inevitable battle for Middle-East Peace

May 05, 2021

The forthcoming inevitable battle for Middle-East Peace

by Ghassan Kadi for the Saker Blog

The alleged stray ground-to-air Syrian missile that landed near the nuclear reactor in Dimona Israel carried many messages; both overt and covert.

And, as if the fact that this missile managed to penetrate Israel’s formidable ‘Iron Dome’ was not embarrassing enough for Israel, the official Israeli report alleged that the missile was actually Iranian-made; not Russian as initially perceived by the world.

In other words, the Israeli report is saying that its ‘Iron Dome’ has been easily penetrated by a missile that is 1) not meant to hit ground targets, 2) had already spent its fuel and maneuverability and was literally on a free fall trajectory by gravitation and not propulsion, 3) yet it penetrated the allegedly most advance air defense system in the world, and 4) above all, it was made in Iran; a nation ‘crippled by sanctions and governed by ‘fundamentalist Mullas’.

Seriously, Israel has never before admitted a defense failure that is even close to such similar proportions.

Ironically, almost simultaneously, Iran revealed photos of an American aircraft carrier taken by a drone; not to forget mentioning that Iran also revealed that it has developed kamikaze drones ready to attack any target within their range in the Gulf.

But the Dimona incident alone cannot be seen in isolation of the recent Russian ‘diplomacy’ initiatives in the Middle East. I have deliberately put the word diplomacy under inverted comas, because that Russian version of diplomacy has a side that proves its worth in both traditional diplomatic ways as well as ones that are unorthodox.

Russia has thus far been very tight-lipped about its objectives in the Middle East. My own analysis of it has landed me in hot water with Russian friends and media allies, and I accept their stand. Perhaps they do not want me to ‘spoil the hidden agenda’, but my role as an analyst is not going to stop, and their views, directives, and concerns will not make me feel guilty for expressing my analyses and predictions.

In this portrayal of recent regional political events in the Middle east, I am relying on bits of pieces of information from here and there, but the analysis of it all is based on my own understanding of what makes sense in combining all what is currently taking place. My analysis does not represent the views of any blog, news agency or government. I have expressed similar views earlier, but events keep progressing, and in every step of the way, it seems that my initial prediction about the Russian initiative in the Middle East was accurate. So here is an updated summary of it all with a bit repetition of earlier material for the benefit of first-time readers.

Ever since Russia responded to Syria’s request to offer military aid, Russia responded with accepting the request under certain conditions; conditions that stipulate a Syrian-Israeli peace settlement agreement.

But this wasn’t all. Putin’s Russia is trying to reverse what Kissinger did to Russia some forty years ago when he catapulted the USSR out of Middle East politics and conned Egypt into accepting a unilateral peace deal with Israel in the so-called Camp David Accords.

Ever since then, Russia has been deprived of a role to play in the Middle East, none at all, until Putin sent troops into Syria and thereby changing the status quo not only in the Middle East, but also heralding the end of the single global superpower status of the post USSR USA.

The post-USSR world has seen Russia suffering from huge American-based NATO encroachments in Eastern Europe, and the current impasse in Ukraine is only one aspect of it. Former Warsaw Pact nations have gone full dipole away from Russia and in cahoots with their new-found Western ‘allies’. The Stalin era might have left a bitter taste in the palate of some East European countries, but this was a long time ago, and nations like Poland and Ukraine surely must understand and know who are their historic regional and global allies. With the era of Nazism and Fascism in the dust bin of history that Europe would like to forget, even Germany and France ought to realize that today’s Russia cannot be associated with Stalin’s-USSR any more than today’s Germany and France can be associated with Hitler and Petain.

And, if Poland wants to remained mentally entrenched in the Stalin era and forget about who liberated it from Nazi occupation, it should look further back in history and remember that the partition of Poland in the 19th Century was not only orchestrated by the Russian Czars, but also in collaboration with Prussia and Austria.

As discussed in the previous article, the current animosity of Eastern European nations towards Russia is not something that can be rationally explained and justified.

Back to the Middle East.

Only Russia can broker a peace deal in the Middle East, a deal that includes not only Syria and Israel, but also Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

The main sticking elements in any such deal are Israel and Turkey, and to a lesser extent Iran.

In the same previous article mentioned above, I predicted a win-win scenario that Russia will broker between Iran and Saudi Arabia; one that guarantees the mutual withdrawal of Iran from Syria and Saudi Arabia from Yemen. As a matter of fact, a few days ago Saudi Crown Prince MBS announced that he wants to have a good relationship with Iran. Is this a sign that this deal is closer than we think? Perhaps not, but I cannot think of any other reason.

Turkey will undoubtedly want a bite of the cherry, and I not sure how will Russia be able to diplomatically appease Erdogan without giving him too much more than what he has taken already. However, his recent stand on Ukraine has put him in deep hot water with Russia and in any future bargains, he will find that his Ukraine venture will be used against him. He has deliberately introduced a bargaining chip that can be used only against himself.

This leaves Israel; how to bring Israel to the negotiating table for a deal that is unlike all previous American-brokered deals.

All American-brokered deals have thus far been based on providing Israel with the lion’s share and the Arab party with very little; especially when it came to making deals with the Palestinian Authority. Furthermore, on top of the political and strategic gains that America delivered to Israel in all of those deals, America ensured that Israel continued to have military superiority and that Arabs would never be able to score a major military victory, even if united.

Despite the October 1973 (ie Yom Kippur War) and what followed it, all the way up to the July 2006 war with Hezbollah, and the humiliations that Israel suffered from all of those military engagements, Israel remains mentally entrenched in the euphoria of the huge Six-Day War win of June 1967 and what ensued afterwards, resulting in what can best be described as the invincible army complex.

Israel will not be prepared to sign a peace agreement with Syria while it believes that it continues to have this military superiority; the power to shape events in its favour. For Israel to change course and become more realistic, it needs either a new generation of political leaders who are more rational, or a reality check; a punishment if you wish.

This is why it is that, inasmuch as the corridors of negotiations are opening up and the tables are being prepared, so are the drums of war.

It is worthy to note here that major reconstructions have not begun in Syria yet. The underlying message here is that perhaps Syria is expecting more carnage, and that reconstruction will have to wait. Why reconstruct twice? In its current state of devastation, Syria has little to lose.

Israel, on the other hand, is in a very vulnerable situation, and the Dimona incident has exposed this gaping hole.

Syria has exercised great restraint in the face of the ongoing Israeli airstrikes. Even though an Israeli jet was downed a few years ago, by-and-large, Syria has remained non-respondent. We do not know exactly what is happening behind the scenes, but it seems that Israel is misreading Syria’s lack of response and seeing weakness, despite information from Russia that such is not the case. Israel will continue to act like the regional bully, refusing to sit at the negotiating table as an equal partner, unless it receives a significant hit.

This hit is not necessarily one that will cause much carnage in Israel such as civilian and military loss of life. Putin will not accept or allow such a level of devastation to be inflicted on Israel. After all, a significant fraction of Israel’s population is originally Russian. Putin, furthermore, is intent on convincing Israel that it is Russia, and not America, that can give Israel real peace with its Arab neighbours.

To this effect, Israel only needs to lose a few fighter-jets, ten, maybe twenty, finding itself unable to defend key military and strategic land targets in order for it to realize that the days of military superiority are gone.

The Dimona incident is a forewarning, but only if Israel wants to read in between the lines. Otherwise, there will be a war in the Middle East, a war that will be intended to be contained and limited to be a punch, a powerful punch, but not a knockout.

With this said, this is the Middle East, a very volatile region, with many volatile heads. A limited war aimed at showing who has muscle may end up spiraling out of control and into something very large. With experience of such unpredictability, Syria is presenting to Israel that a long war will bring more destruction upon Israel than it will on an already destroyed Syria.

What seems certain is that peace initiatives are on the table, but not all parties are yet convinced that they will attend such talks as equal partners before some arms are twisted and statures rattled.

إردوغان وبايدن والأرمن.. ليته لم يتصل! Erdogan, Biden, and the Armenians… If Only He Hadn’t Called!

! Erdogan, Biden, and the Armenians… If Only He Hadn’t Called!

ARABI SOURI 

US Vice President Biden with Turkish Madman Erdogan April 2016
حسني محلي

The following is the English translation from Arabic of the latest article by Turkish career journalist Husni Mahali he published in the Lebanese Al-Mayadeen news site Al-Mayadeen Net:

Five years ago, and specifically, on April 23, 2016, Recep Tayyip Erdogan received then US Vice President Joe Biden in his office in Sultan Abdul Hamid’s palace and sat him on the golden royal chair, noting that he was 80 minutes late after he was in a private lunch with Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, whom Erdogan “expelled” a month later after this occasion.

Five years after this meeting, President Biden, 3 months after his election, surprised his Turkish counterpart by calling yesterday (24 April), which carried with it many annoying and even humiliating meanings for him. The White House said “Biden called him to tell him that he would describe what the Armenians were subjected to in 1915 at the hands of the Ottoman Empire as genocide and ethnic cleansing,” which he did on Saturday evening.

US President also promised Erdogan to have “a lengthy and expanded” meeting on the sidelines of the Atlantic summit in Brussels next June, during which all issues of concern to Turkish-American relations in all their aspects will be discussed; bilateral, regional, and international, which may require many hours of discussion due to the heated nature of these issues, including the Russian “S-400” missiles, the relationship with Moscow, the situation in the Black Sea, the Turkish role in NATO, and its details include the Syrian crisis and American support for the Kurds, the situation in Iraq and the Turkish role in it, the Turkish-Iranian relations, the Turkish role in the region, democracy, and human rights in Turkey…

The former Turkish ambassador to Washington, Shukri Al-Akdag, expected “a difficult stage in Turkish-American relations during the coming period,” and pointed out that “Biden has not yet received the credentials of the new (Turkish) ambassador, Murat Morjan, and he has been waiting for him for 6 weeks.” The two countries are at the last turning point in their history, all because of President Erdogan’s wrong policies regionally, internationally, and internally.

Erdogan, who spoke highly of his intimate relations with Biden when he said on December 9 last year, “Biden visited me at my house when I was sick,” seems to have forgotten or ignored when he said about him in December 2019 that he is “tyrannical and must be disposed of democratically through supporting the opposition.”

On October 3, 2014, (Biden) said on Turkey, Erdogan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, “It supported all jihadist terrorist groups, including ISIS and Al-Nusra, to get rid of President Assad, and spent millions of dollars, and transferred weapons and foreign terrorists to Syria.”

In all cases, and while awaiting the Atlantic summit in Brussels on June 14, everyone knows that President Erdogan will face many difficult and complex challenges in the entirety of his regional and international calculations, due to his contradictions, which seem to have brought Turkey to the end of the dark road. A good example of this is Washington’s decision to exclude it from the F-35 project, due to its purchase of Russian S-400 missiles, without this being sufficient to win the favor of Moscow, which said a day after this decision: “Russia will reconsider its military relations with Ankara if it continues to send its drones to Ukraine.”

Erdogan’s efforts to reconcile with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE, and later “Israel”, constitute another example of these contradictions that President Erdogan is preparing to exploit in his upcoming and decisive meeting with Biden. The former Turkish ambassador to Washington, Namiq Tan, expecting this meeting “to put points on the letters in the future of Turkish-American relations, in all its political, military, and economic aspects, this will require Erdogan to accept or reject the requests and conditions of Biden, who knows the extent of the strategic importance of Turkey.

The statements of the two Turkish ambassadors, Al-Akdag and Tan, clearly reflect how important the next few days are for Erdogan, who has only to close all the files that will be on the table during his meeting with Biden. This will require him to clarify the image of the relationship with his friend, President Putin, with all its implications for Turkish-Russian coordination and cooperation in Syria in the first place, because Washington has its own calculations there, and in particular its support for the Kurds, despite Turkey’s deep concern about that.

The prevailing opinion in Turkey is that Erdogan tends to accept most of the conditions and demands of President Biden, who will not be late in supporting Ankara to get it out of its serious economic and financial crisis, as getting out of this crisis will help the Turkish president to address all his internal problems and get rid of the opposition pressures that he will easily overcome if Washington flooded him with its dollars that would tickle the feelings of the Turkish citizen, without being indifferent to what Erdogan offered or would offer in terms of concessions to the strategic ally Washington.

Turkey has been for many years a “fish in its hook that cannot be easily disposed of,” and the saying here is by former US Secretary of State John Foster Dulles, and the ultimate decision by President Biden, and Erdogan before him, because he has not yet determined the course of his regional and international policies, beginning with Iran, with their implications on all regional issues, the most important of which is Syria, Iran, and Yemen, due to the concerns of “Israel” in it, and finally with Russia, which Biden wanted to try his luck with it in Ukraine, in which its response was firm, decisive and clear.

In all cases, and whatever the content and duration of the possible meeting between Erdogan and Biden on June 14, the recognizing of the Armenian genocide by the latter will worry Ankara, with or without Erdogan, as his recognition of this genocide, which 28 countries have recognized so far, maybe followed by the demands of the Armenians for monetary compensation for their property in Turkey, after they were expelled from it at and during the First World War.

Although these potential demands are reminiscent of Israel’s demand for material compensation from the Arab countries that the Jews left after the “establishment of the Hebrew state” in 1948, some expect Tel Aviv and the Jewish lobbies in Washington to impede the Armenian demands, so that they continue to exploit emotional sentiment and global human solidarity with the victims of the Nazi genocide of the Jews at and during the First World War.

Intercontinental Wars – Part 3 The Open Confrontation

https://syrianews.cc/intercontinental-wars-part-3-the-open-confrontation/embed/#?secret=4BrfZmXy7L

Others expect Tel Aviv and the Jewish lobbies to provoke the Armenians in the issue of compensation, as this would be a card that would help Tel Aviv in its attempts to pressure Ankara to force it to reconcile or keep it away from any hostile approach to it, with the continuation of Turkish contradictions in this area, especially after the so-called “Spring” Arabi”.

Despite the threat and menacing that President Erdogan issued, on more than one occasion, against “Israel” and Netanyahu, Ankara did not use the right of veto against “Israel” joining the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and opening an Israeli representation at NATO headquarters.

The file of the Marmara ship case was also closed in exchange for 20 million dollars donated by Tel Aviv to the families of the victims, at a time when trade exchange between the two countries reached record numbers, with the continued flow of Azerbaijani and Iraqi oil from Turkish ports to Israel.

There is no doubt that President Biden attaches special importance to these issues in Washington’s regional policies, regardless of the shape and size of the apathy with Netanyahu, given that “Israel” is a distinct American product that Washington does not want anyone to say it is corrupt and not consumable anymore, provided that the recognition of the genocide is an emotional issue with a weak displaced people without diminishing regional and international calculations, especially after the recent displacement they were subjected to from Syria and Iraq, without any indifference from Biden and Macron, who tweeted today to say: “We will not forget you!”

إردوغان وبايدن والأرمن.. ليته لم يتصل!

حسني محلي

الرأي السائد في تركيا أن يتجه إردوغان للقبول بمعظم شروط بايدن ومطالبه، والذي لن يتأخر حينها في دعم أنقرة لإخراجها من أزمتها الاقتصادية والمالية الخطيرة.

حسني محلي

باحث علاقات دولية ومختصص بالشأن التركي

المصدر: الميادين نت

24 نيسان 2021

السفير التركي السابق في واشنطن، شكري الأكداغ، توقع
السفير التركي السابق في واشنطن، شكري الأكداغ، توقع “مرحلة صعبة في العلاقات التركية – الأميركية خلال المرحلة القادمة”.

قبل 5 سنوات، وتحديداً في 23 نيسان/أبريل 2016، استقبل رجب طيب إردوغان نائب الرئيس الأميركي آنذاك، جو بايدن، في مكتبه في قصر السلطان عبد الحميد، وأجلسه على الكرسي السلطاني المذهّب، علماً أنه تأخر عن موعده 80 دقيقة، بعد أن كان في حفل غداء خاص مع رئيس الوزراء أحمد داود أوغلو، الذي “طرده” إردوغان بعد شهر من هذه المناسبة. 

بعد هذا اللقاء بخمس سنوات، فاجأ الرئيس بايدن، وبعد 3 أشهر من انتخابه، نظيره التركي باتصاله الهاتفي أمس، والذي حمل في طياته الكثير من المعاني المزعجة، وحتى المهينة بالنسبة إليه، فقد ذكر البيت الأبيض “إن بايدن اتصل به ليقول له إنه سيصف ما تعرض له الأرمن في العام 1915 على يد الدولة العثمانية بالإبادة الجماعية والتطهير العرقي”، وهو ما فعله مساء السبت. 

كما وعد الرئيس الأميركي إردوغان بلقاء “مطول وموسع” على هامش القمة الأطلسية في بروكسل في حزيران/يونيو القادم، يتم خلاله بحث مجمل القضايا التي تهم العلاقات التركية – الأميركية بكل جوانبها؛ الثنائية والإقليمية والدولية، وهو ما قد يحتاج إلى ساعات طويلة من النقاش بسبب سخونة هذه القضايا، ومنها صواريخ “أس-400” الروسية، والعلاقة مع موسكو، والوضع في البحر الأسود، والدور التركي في الحلف الأطلسي وتفاصيله تشمل الأزمة السورية، والدعم الأميركي للكرد، والوضع في العراق والتحركات التركية فيه، والعلاقات التركية – الإيرانية، والدور التركي في المنطقة، والديمقراطية وحقوق الإنسان في تركيا…

السفير التركي السابق في واشنطن، شكري الأكداغ، توقع “مرحلة صعبة في العلاقات التركية – الأميركية خلال المرحلة القادمة”، وأشار إلى “عدم استلام بايدن حتى الآن أوراق اعتماد السفير الجديد مراد مرجان، وهو ينتظره منذ 6 أسابيع”، وقال: “العلاقات بين البلدين في المنعطف الأخير من تاريخها. كل ذلك بسبب سياسات الرئيس إردوغان الخاطئة إقليمياً ودولياً وداخلياً”.

إردوغان الذي تغنى بعلاقاته الحميمة مع بايدن عندما قال في 9 كانون الأول/ديسمبر العام الماضي: “بايدن زارني في منزلي عندما كنت مريضاً”، يبدو أنه نسي أو تناسى عندما قال عنه في كانون الأول/ديسمبر 2019 إنه “استبدادي ويجب التخلص منه ديمقراطياً عبر دعم المعارضة”.

وقد قال في 3 تشرين الأول/أكتوبر 2014 عن تركيا إردوغان والسعودية والإمارات “إنها دعمت كل الجماعات الجهادية الإرهابية، بما فيها داعش والنصرة، للتخلص من الرئيس الأسد، وصرفت الملايين من الدولارات، ونقلت الأسلحة والإرهابيين الأجانب إلى سوريا”.

 في جميع الحالات، ومع انتظار القمة الأطلسية في بروكسل في 14 حزيران/يونيو، يعرف الجميع أن الرئيس إردوغان سيواجه الكثير من التحديات الصعبة والمعقدة في مجمل حساباته الإقليمية والدولية، بسبب تناقضاته التي يبدو واضحاً أنها أوصلت تركيا إلى نهاية الطريق المظلم. خير مثال على ذلك هو قرار واشنطن استبعادها من مشروع طائرات “أف-35″، بسبب شرائها صواريخ “أس-400” الروسية، من دون أن يكون ذلك كافياً لكسب ود موسكو، التي قالت بعد يوم من هذا القرار “إن روسيا ستعيد النظر في علاقاتها العسكرية مع أنقرة إذا استمرت في إرسال طائراتها المسيرة إلى أوكرانيا”.

مساعي إردوغان للمصالحة مع السعودية ومصر والإمارات، ولاحقاً “إسرائيل”، تشكل مثالاً آخر على هذه التناقضات التي يستعد الرئيس إردوغان لاستغلالها في لقائه القادم والحاسم مع بايدن، فالسفير التركي الأسبق في واشنطن نامق، توقع لهذا اللقاء “أن يضع النقاط على الحروف في مستقبل العلاقات التركية – الأميركية بكل جوانبها السياسية والعسكرية والاقتصادية، وهو ما سيتطلب من إردوغان قبول أو رفض طلبات وشروط بايدن الذي يعرف مدى الأهمية الاستراتيجية لتركيا”.

أقوال السفيرين التركيين الأكداغ وتان تعكس بوضوح مدى أهمية الأيام القليلة القادمة بالنسبة إلى إردوغان، الذي ما عليه إلا أن يغلق مجمل الملفات التي ستكون على الطاولة خلال لقائه مع بايدن. وسيتطلب ذلك منه توضيح صورة العلاقة مع صديقه الرئيس بوتين بكل انعكاساتها على التنسيق والتعاون التركي – الروسي في سوريا في الدرجة الأولى، لما لواشنطن من حسابات خاصة بها هناك، وبشكل خاص دعمها للكرد، على الرغم من القلق التركي البالغ من ذلك.

الرأي السائد في تركيا أن يتجه إردوغان للقبول بمعظم شروط الرئيس بايدن ومطالبه، والذي لن يتأخر حينها في دعم أنقرة لإخراجها من أزمتها الاقتصادية والمالية الخطيرة، فالخروج من هذه الأزمة سيساعد الرئيس التركي على معالجة مجمل مشاكله الداخلية والتخلص من ضغوط المعارضة التي سيتغلب عليها بسهولة إذا أغرقته واشنطن بدولاراتها التي ستدغدغ مشاعر المواطن التركي، من دون أن يبالي بما قدمه أو سيقدمه إردوغان من تنازلات للحليف الاستراتيجي واشنطن.

لقد كانت تركيا لسنوات طويلة “سمكة في صنارتها لا يمكن التخلص منها بسهولة”، والقول هنا لوزير الخارجية الأميركي الأسبق جون فوستر دالاس، والقرار في نهاية المطاف للرئيس بايدن، وقبله إردوغان، لأنه لم يحدد بعد مسار سياساته الإقليمية والدولية، بداية مع إيران، بانعكاساتها على مجمل القضايا الإقليمية، وأهمها سوريا وإيران واليمن، لاهتمامات “إسرائيل” بها، ونهايةً مع روسيا، التي أراد بايدن أن يجرب حظه معها في أوكرانيا، فكان الرد منها حازماً وحاسماً وواضحاً.

 في جميع الحالات، ومهما كان مضمون اللقاء المحتمل بين إردوغان وبايدن في 14 حزيران/يونيو القادم ومدته، فإن الإبادة الأرمنية التي أقرها الأخير ستقلق بال أنقرة، بإردوغان أو من دونه، فاعترافه بهذه الإبادة التي اعترفت بها حتى الآن 28 دولة قد يلحق بها مطالب الأرمن بالتعويض المادي لممتلكاتهم في تركيا، بعد أن طردوا منها إبان الحرب العالمية الأولى وخلالها.

ورغم أن هذه المطالب المحتملة تذكّر بمطالبة “إسرائيل” بتعويضات مادية من الدول العربية التي غادرها اليهود بعد “قيام الدولة العبرية” في العام 1948، فالبعض يتوقع لتل أبيب واللوبيات اليهودية في واشنطن أن تعرقل المطالب الأرمنية، حتى تستمر في استغلال الشعور العاطفي والتضامن الإنساني العالمي مع ضحايا الإبادة النازية لليهود إبان الحرب العالمية الأولى وخلالها.

ويتوقع آخرون لتل أبيب واللوبيات اليهودية أن تستفز الأرمن في موضوع التعويضات، ليكون ذلك ورقة تساعد تل أبيب في محاولاتها للضغط على أنقرة لإجبارها على المصالحة أو إبعادها عن أي نهج معادٍ لها، مع استمرار التناقضات التركية في هذا المجال، وخصوصاً بعد ما يسمى بـ”الربيع العربي”. 

وعلى الرغم من التهديد والوعيد الذي أطلقه الرئيس إردوغان، وفي أكثر من مناسبة، ضد “إسرائيل” ونتنياهو، لم تستخدم أنقرة حق الفيتو ضد انضمام “إسرائيل” إلى منظمة التعاون والتنمية الاقتصادية (OECD) وفتح ممثلية إسرائيلية في مقر الحلف الأطلسي.

 كما أغلقت ملف قضية سفينة مرمرة مقابل 20 مليون دولار تبرعت بها تل أبيب لعائلات الضحايا، في الوقت الذي سجل التبادل التجاري بين البلدين أرقاماً قياسية، مع استمرار تدفق النفط الأذربيجاني والعراقي من الموانئ التركية إلى “إسرائيل”.

لا شك في أن الرئيس بايدن يولي هذه القضايا أهمية خاصة في سياسات واشنطن الإقليمية، مهما كان شكل الفتور مع نتنياهو وحجمه، باعتبار أن “إسرائيل” صناعة أميركية مميزة لا تريد واشنطن لأحد أن يقول عنها إنها فاسدة وغير قابلة للاستهلاك بعد الآن، على أن يبقى الاعتراف بالإبادة موضوعاً عاطفياً مع شعب مشرد ضعيف من دون أن يقلل ذلك من الحسابات الإقليمية والدولية، وخصوصاً بعد ما تعرضوا له من تهجير أخير من سوريا والعراق، من دون أي مبالاة من بايدن وماكرون الذي غرد اليوم ليقول: “لن ننساكم!”.

نصرالله عصر التنوير وماكرون محاكم التفتيش Nasrallah – the Age of Enlightenment, Macron – the Inquisition

ناصر قنديل

العلمانية التي ظهرت كنظام سياسي وعقد اجتماعي للدولة الأوروبية المعاصرة، هي منتج سياسي وقانوني لثقافة أعمق نهضت على أكتاف الثورة الصناعيّة وتجسّدت في القرنين الثامن عشر والتاسع عشر بثورة العقل والمنطق. وما عُرف بعصر التنوير الذي قاده عمالقة بحجم فولتير وروسو ومونتسكيو، وتبلورت شعاراتها السياسية بالحرية والأخاء والمساواة في الثورة الفرنسية، بينما تبلورت فلسفته العميقة بالاحتكام للعقل، وكانت قطيعة مع تاريخ معاكس مثلته محاكم التفتيش الكاثوليكية التي دفع فيلسوف كبير مثل برونو وعلماء كبار مثل كوبرنيكوس وجاليلو ثمناً باهظاً لها بتهمة الهرطقة على قاعدة تحريم الاحتكام للعقل والعلم، بينما سياسياً واجتماعياً طورد الإصلاحيون باسم التبرؤ من البدع كما حدث مع الفيلسوف ميشال سيرفيه الذي أحرق حياً في جنيف بتهمة رفض عقيدة التثليث، فيما شكلت جرائمها بحق المسلمين في الأندلس أبرز ما حمله سجلها التاريخي تحت عنوان فحص الولاء لله، وشكلت فكرياً وثقافياً وجهاً من وجوه استمرار الحملات الصليبية.

في ما يشبه استعادة مناخات الحروب الصليبية يتبادل الرئيسان الفرنسي والتركي عبثاً بالعقائد والعواطف والانفعالات المنبثقة عنها، حيث يصب كل منهما من طرفه وفي البيئة التي يخاطبها زيتاً على نار حرب عبثية، لا يتورّع فيها الرئيس الفرنسي امانويل ماكرون عن التحدث عن أزمة في الإسلام، وإرهاب إسلامي، وفاشية إسلامية، أملاً بأن يتزعم جبهة تضم العلمانيين بداعي الدفاع عن حرية التعبير في شقها المتصل بالتغطية على ما يطال المقدسات الإسلامية، وتضم المتطرفين المسيحيين، الذين لا يخفون ضيقهم من تنامي حضور وتعداد المسلمين في فرنسا خصوصاً وأوروبا عموماً، وإلى الفريقين تضم اليمين الوطني الرافض لتكاثر المهاجرين من البلاد الإسلامية، أملاً بأن يشكل هذا الثلاثي مصدر زعامة تشبه زعامات بناها قادة الحروب الصليبية، بينما يسعى الرئيس التركي رجب أردوغان، وفي ظل نزاع مصلحي بين الدولتين الفرنسية والتركية، لقيادة جبهة تضم الجاليات الإسلامية المقهورة تحت ظلم سياسات عنصرية في أوروبا، وتضم التنظيمات الإرهابية التكفيرية التي تشغّلها تركيا، وكانت فرنسا شريكها في التشغيل طوال سنوات الحرب على سورية، وتضم ثالثاً الشعوب العربية من المسلمين التي تسمع بصعوبة كلاماً منخفض الصوت لحكوماتها الواقعة تحت تبعية ذليلة لحكومات الغرب، فتعجز عن التجرؤ لمخاطبة الحكومات الغربية، والرئيس الفرنسي في المقدمة بلغة شجاعة تنتقد وتصحح وتعترض. وهذه الحكومات التابعة هي شريك لحكومات فرنسا وأوروبا في رعاية الجماعات الإرهابية وتشجيع الفكر التكفيري، لكن بغرض استعمال نتاج هذه الرعاية في ليبيا وسورية وليس في أوروبا.

في هذا القحط الفكري، والانفلات القاتل للعصبيّات، يخرج رجل دين معمّم من أتباع الرسول وعشاقه ليقود الدعوة للتعقل وتحمّل المسؤولية، ووضع النقاط على الحروف، مستعيداً المعاني العميقة لشعارات الثورة الفرنسية ودعوات روسو وفولتير، حيث الحرية هي الاحترام العميق لحرية المعتقد. وهو في الأولوية معتقد الأقلية والضعفاء والمقهورين، والأخاء هو الترفّع عن منطق التمييز العنصري على اساس الدين والعرق واللون والجنس، والمساواة هي نزاهة تطبيق معيار المحاكمة العقلية للمفاهيم قبل أن تكون المساواة أمام القانون، حيث لا يستوي نص تحريم الحرية والعقل تحت شعار معاداة السامية، ولو التزما كل التحفظ العلمي والضوابط الأخلاقية، وتطلق حرية بث الكراهيّة، ولو تمت بصورة عبثية تستخف بالضوابط الأخلاقية والقيمية للأخوة الإنسانية، تحت شعار حرية التعبير، فجادل رجل الدين المعمم، بلغة عصر التنوير كوريث لمنجزات الحضارة الإنسانية، من يفترض أنه الوصي على تنفيذ منتجاتها من الموقع الدستوري والسياسي، بعدما ارتضى أن يتحول إلى قائد جيش في الحرب الصليبية أو رئيس غرفة من غرف محاكم تفتيش.

كلام السيد حسن نصرلله في ما تشهده علاقة المسلمين والجاليات الإسلامية بالقضايا المثارة على مساحة أوروبا من وحي قضية الرسوم المسيئة للرسول والجرائم الإرهابية المتذرّعة بها، مرافعة فلسفية عقلانية تستعيد روح عصر التنوير والاحتكام للعقل، والحل الذي تبنّاه ختاماً لمرافعته، مستعيداً مقترح الأزهر بتشريع عالمي لتحريم النيل من المقدسات، حجر متعدد الأهداف في يوم الوحدة الإسلامية، بينما يتساءل بعض رجال القانون في فرنسا، لماذا لا تتم محاكمة أصحاب الرسوم المسيئة للرسول تحت بند العداء للسامية، أليس الرسول من أحفاد سام بن نوح، وقد روى الترمذي أن الرسول هو القائل بأن “سام أبو العرب ويافث أبو الروم وحام أبو الحبش”؟

Nasrallah – the Age of Enlightenment, Macron – the Inquisition

2/11/2020

Written by Nasser Kandil,

Secularism is a political regime and a social aspect of the contemporary European state, it is a political and legal outcome of a deeper culture that emerged as a result of the Industrial Revolution and was embodied in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries by the revolution of reason and logic or as was called the Age of Enlightenment led by the giants as Voltaire, Rousseau, and Montesquieu. Its political slogans called for freedom, brotherhood, and equality during the French Revolution. But this movement was faced with counter thinking represented by the Catholic Inquisition which a great philosopher as Bruno and great scholars as Copernicus and Galileo had paid a high cost in charge of heresy based on the prohibition of resorting to reason and science. Politically and socially, many reformists were chased under the name of the disavowal of heresies, as happened with the philosopher Michael Servetus who was burnt alive in Geneva on the accusation of rejecting the doctrine of Trinity. Its history was known for its crimes against Muslims in Andalusia under the name of loyalty to God, so intellectually and culturally it formed an aspect of the continuation of the Crusades.

As in the Crusades, the French and the Turkish Presidents exchanged in vain beliefs, emotions, and the outcome feelings. Each one of them has tried to evoke a futile war. The French President Emmanuel Macron did not hesitate to talk about a crisis in Islam, Islamic terrorism, and Islamic Fascism, hoping to lead a front that includes the secularists in order to defend the liberty of expression about Islamic sanctities, the Christian extremists, who are fed up with the growing number of Muslims in Europe in general and in France in particular, and the National right which rejects the growing number of immigrants from Islamic countries, hoping that this front can be a source of leadership as the leaderships of the Crusades. While the Turkish President Recep Erdogan was seeking to lead a front that includes the oppressed Muslim communities due to the tyranny of the racist policies in Europe, the takfiri terrorist organizations backed by Turkey, and the Arab Muslim nations who are suffering from their governments that are subordinated to the governments of the West, and do not dare to address them bravely, criticize or oppose. These governments are partners of the governments of France and Europe in sponsoring the terrorist groups and supporting the takfiri belief in order to be operated in Libya and Syria not in Europe.

In this intellectual aridity and fatal chaos of fanaticism, a religious man from the followers and lovers of the Prophet emerged to lead the call to be rational, to bear the responsibility, and to be clear, recalling the deeper meanings of the slogans of the French Revolution and the calls of Rousseau and Voltaire where freedom means the respect of the freedom of belief which is the belief of the minority, the weak, and the oppressed, and where brotherhood means to be away from the logic of the racial discrimination on the basis of religion, race, color, and gender, and where equality is the fairness of applying the mental judgment of concepts before it is governed by law, and where the texts of prohibiting freedom and reason cannot be dealt with under the slogan of anti-Semitism even if scientific reservation and moral controls were taken into consideration, and the freedom of  feeling hostile cannot be spread irrationally underestimating all moral controls of the human brotherhood under the slogan of the liberty of expression. Therefore, this religious leader has argued in the language of the Age of Enlightenment “as a heritage of the achievements of the human civilization” the man who is supposed to be the trustee constitutionally and politically not an army commander in the Crusades or a head of one of the inquisitions.

The words of Al Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah regarding the relationship of Muslims and the Islamic communities with the issues rose in Europe after the offensive drawings against the Prophet and the terrorist crimes relating are a philosophical and rational argument that recalls the spirit of the Age of Enlightenment and the resorting to reason. He adopted the suggestion of Al Azhar of an international legislation to prohibit the underestimation of sanctities as a base in the Day of the Islamic unity. While some jurists in France are wondering why the owners of the offensive drawings are not prosecuted under the name of anti-Semitism, Is not the Messenger one of the grandsons of Sam Bin Noah?! Al Tirmidhi narrated that the Prophet “peace be upon him” said: “Sam was the father of Arabs, Ham the father of the Ethiopians, and Yafith the father of the Romans”.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

Will the allies have to die for Kiev?

Thierry Meyssan Political consultant, President-founder of the Réseau Voltaire (Voltaire Network). Latest work in English – Before Our Very Eyes, Fake Wars and Big Lies: From 9/11 to Donald Trump, Progressive Press, 2019.

by Thierry Meyssan

The Ukrainian population is divided between a part of European culture and another of Russian culture.

This singularity offers Washington a playground against Moscow. For several weeks now, the drums have been beating, sounding war.

But none of the allies want to die for Kiev or sacrifice themselves to Russia.

VOLTAIRE NETWORK | PARIS (FRANCE) | 20 APRIL 2021

The US armed forces

Joe Biden has always been the “Pentagon’s man”.

1- The Anglo-Saxons have a hereditary enemy: the Russians. For them, Russians are despicable people, destined since Otto I (10th century) to be nothing but slaves, as their name indicates (‘Slavic’ means both ethnicity and slave). In the 20th century, they were against the USSR, allegedly because it was communist, and are now against Russia without knowing why.

2- Second adversary, enemies they have created for themselves by waging an “endless war” against them since September 11, 2001: the populations of the wider Middle East, whose state organisation they are systematically destroying, whether they are allies or adversaries, in order to “send them back to the stone age” and exploit the riches of their region (Rumsfeld/Cebrowski strategy).

3- Third adversary: China, whose economic development threatens to relegate them to second place. In their eyes, they have no other choice than war. This is at least what their political scientists think, and they even speak of the “Thucydides trap” in reference to the war that Sparta waged against Athens, frightened by its flight [1].

4 – The issues of Iran and North Korea are far behind the first three.

Joe Biden’s Interim National Security Strategy [2] or their Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community [3] keep repeating this from different angles.

Fighting three wars at once is extremely difficult. The Pentagon is currently looking at how to prioritise these. It will report in June. There is absolute secrecy about the commission that is doing this assessment. No one even knows who the members are. Yet without delay, the Biden administration is focusing on Russia.

Whether we are independent or subservient to the “American Empire”, we must stop trying to avoid seeing. The United States of America has no other objective than to destroy Russian culture, Arab state structures, and – eventually – the Chinese economy. This has absolutely nothing to do with the legitimate defence of their people.

There is no other way to explain why the United States spends astronomical sums on its military that bear no relation to the budgets of those it describes as its “friends” or “enemies”. According to the Institute for Strategic Studies in London, the US military budget is at least equal to the sum of the budgets of the other 15 most armed

states [4].

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Military budgets of the 15 largest states (in billions of US dollars).Source: Institute for Strategic Studies

Issues for confrontation with Russia

The US is concerned about Russia’s recovery. After experiencing a sharp drop in life expectancy between 1988 and 1994 (5 years less), it has recovered, then largely surpassed that of the Soviet era (12 years more), although its healthy life expectancy remains one of the lowest in Europe. Their economy is diversifying, particularly in agriculture, but remains dependent on energy exports. Their army has been renewed, their military-industrial complex is more efficient than the Pentagon’s, and it has acquired experience in Syria.

For Washington, the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline threatens to free Western Europe from its dependence on US oil. While the attachment of Crimea to the Russian Federation, and even that of Donbass, is at least partially a blow to Ukraine’s dependence on the American Empire (Crimea and Donbass are not of Western culture). Finally, the Russian military presence in Syria is slowing down the project of political destruction of all the peoples of this region.

“When you want to drown your dog, you say it has rabies”

It was undoubtedly President Biden who opened the hostilities by calling the Russian president a “killer”. The two powers had never exchanged insults, even in the Gulag era. His interlocutor replied politely and offered to discuss the matter publicly, which he refused.

The United States has a short-term view of the world. They do not see themselves as responsible for their legacy. According to them, the evil Russians have amassed more than 100,000 troops in the vicinity of Ukraine and are preparing to invade it, as the Soviets did in Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia. But then it was not Russia, but the USSR; not the Putin doctrine, but the Brezhnev doctrine; and Leonid Brezhnev himself was not Russian, but Ukrainian.

The Russians, on the contrary, have a long-term view of the world. In their view, the barbaric Americans challenged the balance of power with the attacks of 11 September 2001. Immediately afterwards, on December 13, 2001, President Bush announced the withdrawal of the United States from the ABM Treaty. The United States then brought into NATO, one by one, almost all the former members of the Warsaw Pact and the USSR in violation of their promise at the time of the dissolution of the latter. This policy was confirmed by the Bucharest Declaration in 2008 [5].

Everyone knows the peculiarity of Ukraine: Western culture in the West, Russian culture in the East. For about fifteen years, the country was politically frozen, until Washington organised a pseudo-revolution and put its puppets, in this case neo-Nazis, in power [6]. Moscow reacted quickly enough for Crimea to declare its independence and join the Russian Federation, but it hesitated for the Donbass. Since then, it has been handing out Russian passports to all the inhabitants of this Ukrainian region for which it is the only hope.

The Biden administration

President Biden was known, when he was a senator, for introducing legislation in the Senate that was devised by the Pentagon. When he became president, he surrounded himself with neo-conservative figures. We cannot repeat it enough: the neo-conservatives were Trotskyite militants who were recruited by Republican President Ronald Reagan. Since then, they have always remained in power, except during the parenthesis of Jacksonian President Donald Trump, switching from the Republican to the Democratic Party and back again.

During the colourful Maïdan ’revolution’ (2013-14), Joe Biden, then vice-president, took up the cause of the neo-Nazis who were agents of Nato’s stay-behind networks [7] He ran the operation with one of the then assistant secretaries of state, Victoria Nuland (whose husband, Robert Kagan, is a founder of the Project for a New American Century, the fundraising arm of Republican George W. Bush). President Biden decided to make her the deputy to his new Secretary of State. She relied on the then US ambassador to Kiev, Geoffrey Pyatt, now posted in Athens, Greece. As for President Biden’s new Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, he is both judge and jury because his mother is of Ukrainian origin. Although he was raised in Paris by his mother’s second husband, te lawyer Samuel Pisar (advisor to President Kennedy), he is also a neo-conservative.

Preparing for the confrontation with Russia

In mid-March 2021, the United States and its Nato partners organised the Defender-Europe 21 manoeuvres. These will continue until June. This is a repeat of the mega-exercise Defender-Europe 20, which was reduced and shortened due to the Covid-19 epidemic. It is a huge deployment of men and equipment to simulate a confrontation with Russia. These manoeuvres are joined by a nuclear bomber exercise in Greece, attended by the aforementioned Ambassador Geoffrey Pyatt.

On March 25, President Volodymyr Zelensky published the new Ukrainian Security Strategy [8], three weeks after President Joe Biden published the US one.

Responding to Nato, Russia undertook its own manoeuvres on its western border, including its border with Ukraine. It was even sending additional troops to Crimea and as far as Transnistria.

On 1 April, the US Secretary of Defense called his Ukrainian counterpart about a possible increase in tension with Russia [9]. President Volodymyr Zelensky issued a statement saying he was monitoring Russian moves that could be provocative [10].

On 2 April, the United Kingdom organised a meeting of the British-Ukrainian Defence and Foreign Ministries, under the responsibility of British Minister Ben Wallace [11] (who was very active in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict [12]).

On April 2, President Joe Biden called his Ukrainian counterpart to assure him of his support against Russia. According to the Atlantic Council, he announced his decision to give him a hundred combat aircraft (F-15, F-16 and E-2C) currently based at Davis-Monthan air base [13].

On April 4, the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, Democrat Adam Smith, negotiated with Ukrainian parliamentarians to provide large subsidies to the Ukrainian army in exchange for the Ukrainian commitment to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline [14]

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Discreet return trip to Qatar by President Zelensky and the head of the Ukroboronprom arms factories on April 5, 2021.

On April 5, President Volodymyr Zelensky paid a visit to Qatar. The official purpose was to develop trade relations. Qatar is the main supplier of weapons to the jihadists and, according to our information, the question of possible financing of fighters was discussed. The director general of the military manufacturer Ukroboronprom, Yuriy Gusev, was on the trip. It was he who had supplied weapons to Daesh on order from Qatar [15].

On April 6, Lithuania, which in the past protected the western part of Ukraine in its own empire, enquired about the military situation [16]

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President Zelensky receives the Chairman of the Nato Military Committee on April 7, 2021.

On 6 and 7 April, British General Sir Stuart Peach, Chairman of the Nato Military Committee, visited Ukraine to clarify the reforms necessary for the country to join Nato [17].

On 9 April, in accordance with the Montreux Convention, the Pentagon informed Turkey of its intention to transit warships through the Dardanelles and Bosporus straits.

After discussing weapons and money with Sheikh Tamin in Qatar, President Zelinski came to talk about men with his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, on 10 April 2021.

On April 10, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan received his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky in Istanbul as part of regular consultations between the two nations [18]. In view of the Qatari endorsement, Nato member Turkey immediately began recruiting international jihadists in Syria to fight in the Ukrainian Donbass. Turkish military instructors were also sent to the Ukrainian port of Mariupol, the headquarters of the International Islamist Brigade [19], created by President Erdoğan and his then Ukrainian counterpart with Tatars loyal to Washington against Russia.

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Logically, the Russian Federation was amassing troops on the Ukrainian border. So its partners in the OSCE (Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe) questioned it about its manoeuvres. The Russian side only answered evasively. The Vienna Document (1999) obliges OSCE members to provide each other with all information on the movements of their troops and equipment. But we know that the Russians do not operate like the West. They never inform their people or their partners during an operation, only when their deployments are over.

Two days later, the G7 issued a statement expressing concern about Russian movements, but ignoring those of Nato and Turkey. It welcomed Ukraine’s restraint and called on Russia to “stop its provocations” [20].

On April 13, on the occasion of the NATO foreign ministers’ meeting with the Ukraine/NATO Commission, the United States pulled out all the stops. All the allies – none of whom wanted to die because the Ukrainians could not get a divorce – were invited to support Kiev and denounce Russia’s “escalation” [21]. Secretary of State Antony Blinken held extensive talks with his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kouleba [22]. War was inexorably on the way.

Suddenly, President Joe Biden lightened the mood by phoning his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. He proposed a summit meeting, whereas Putin had dismissed the proposal for a public debate when he had insulted him [23]. After this initiative, war seemed avoidable.

On April 14, Antony Blinken, however, summoned his main allies (Germany, France, Italy and the UK) to mobilize them [24]

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.President Biden clarified his position on Russia on April 15, 2021.

On April 15, President Joe Biden gave his vision of the conflict, expelled ten Russian diplomats [25] He imposed sanctions on Russia, which was accused not only of rigging elections to get President Donald Trump elected, but also of offering bounties for the assassination of US soldiers in Afghanistan and of attacking federal computer systems using SolarWinds software.

Predictably, Russia expelled a similar number of US diplomats. In addition, it set a trap for a Ukrainian diplomat, who was caught in the act of espionage with classified documents in his hand.

Continuing on his path, President Volodymyr Zelensky went to meet his French and German counterparts, President Emmanuel Macron and Chancellor Angela Merkel. While deploring the Russian escalation and reaffirming their moral support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity, they were evasive about what would happen next. In the end, if the United States and Russia are to meet and discuss, it is a bit early to die for Kiev.

Thierry Meyssan

Translation

Roger Lagassé

[1Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?, Graham Allison, Houghton Mifflin Harcourt (2017).

[2Interim National Security Guidance, White House, March 3, 2021. “President Biden’s National Security Strategy”, by Thierry Meyssan, Translation Roger Lagassé, Voltaire Network, 9 April 2021.

[3Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, Director of National Intelligence, April 9, 2021.

[4The Military Balance 2021, Institute for Strategic Studies, Routledge (2021).

[5] “Bucharest Summit Declaration”, Nato, April 3, 2008.

[6] “Who are the Nazis in the Ukrainian government?”, by Thierry Meyssan, Voltaire Network, 3 March 2014.

[7NATO’s Secret Armies: Operation GLADIO and Terrorism in Western Europe, Daniele Ganser, Routledge (2005).

[8] Presidential Order 121/2021.

[9] “Readout of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III’s Call With Ukrainian Minister of Defence Andrii Taran”, US Department of Defense, April 2, 2021.

[10] “Zelensky on Russian troops near border: Ukraine is ready for any provocations”, Ukrinform, April 2, 2021.

[11] “UK defense secretary initiates talks with Taran due to escalation in eastern Ukraine”, Ukrinform, April 2, 2021.

[12] “Nagorno-Karabakh: victory of London and Ankara, defeat of Soros and the Armenians”, by Thierry Meyssan, Translation Roger Lagassé, Voltaire Network, 24 November 2020.

[13] “U.S. Should Provide Lend-Lease Type of Aid Package for Ukraine to Help it Upgrade its Air Force – Atlantic Council”, Defense Express, April 7, 2021.

[14] “Arakhamiya, Congressman Smith discuss expanding military support for Ukraine”, Ukrinform, March 5, 2021.

[15] “Qatar and Ukraine come to deliver Pechora-2D to ISIS”, by Andrey Fomin, Oriental Review (Russia) , Voltaire Network, 22 November 2015.

[16] “Ukrainian, Latvian defense ministers discuss security situation on Ukraine’s borders”, Ukrinform, April 7, 2021.

[17] “NATO Military Committee Chairman visits Ukraine”, NATO, April 6, 2021.

[18] “Turkey recruiting jihadists to send them to Ukraine ”, Voltaire Network, 18 April 2021.

[19] « L’Ukraine et la Turquie créent une Brigade internationale islamique contre la Russie », par Thierry Meyssan, Télévision nationale syrienne , Réseau Voltaire, 12 août 2015.

[20] “G7 Foreign Ministers statement on Ukraine”, Voltaire Network, 12 April 2021.

[21] “NATO-Ukraine Commission addresses security situation in and around Ukraine”, NATO , Voltaire Network, 13 April 2021.

[22] “Meeting of Antony Blinken and Dmytro Kouleba”, USA (Department of State) , Voltaire Network, 13 April 2021.

[23] “Joseph R. Biden, Jr. Call with Vladimir Putin”, USA (White House) , Voltaire Network, 13 April 2021.

[24] “Main allies meeting on Ukraine”, United States (Department of State) , Voltaire Network, 14 April 2021.

[25] “Remarks on Russia”, by Joseph R. Biden Jr., Voltaire Network, 15 April 2021.

https://www.voltairenet.org/article212801.html

Did the US just try to murder Lukashenko? (OPEN THREAD #14) (UPDATED)

Did the US just try to murder Lukashenko? (OPEN THREAD #14) (UPDATED)

April 19, 2021

Amazing news over the week-end: President Lukashenko has declared that Biden gave the order to kill him in a coup organized by the CIA.  Now, we all know that Lukashenko says all sorts of things, many of them false or plain silly.  Except that the Russian FSB has confirmed it all!  According to the Russians, a joint operation of the (Bielorussian) KGB and the Russian FSB has uncovered the plot early on and the Russians monitored the full operation until they had enough evidence to arrest all the plotters.  Not only do the Russians have videos of their meetings, they also intercepted their Zoom videoconferences (Zoom users, use Jitsi instead!).

So far so good.  But it gets better!

Unlike the US/UK and others, the Russian FSB did not say that they were “confident” that it was “highly likely” that this operation took place.  They released all the footage of a meeting of the plotters in Moscow which confirms it all (I don’t have the time to translate that footage, but I am confident that somebody will – if you come across an English language translation, please post it in the comments section below!).

One not familiar with such operations might be baffled over why this meeting took place in Moscow and not in Warsaw or Riga.  There are several reasons for that:

  • There is a practically open border between Belarus and Russia, which form “а unified state”, and there is nothing easier for the (supposed) Bielorussian traitors (from the military) to jump in a car and get to Moscow.
  • Using Warsaw or Riga would dramatically reduce what the CIA calls “plausible deniability” for the US and NATO.
  • Yes, meeting in Moscow was still stupid, but no more stupid than the failed US coup to do to Maduro when the US did exactly what they tried to do to Lukashenko.  The fact that both operations failed is par for the course for the (mostly clueless) CIA.
  • The main plotter, a very well-known anti-Lukashenko activist, is a double national Bielorussian and US American and for him to move to Minsk for that meeting would be very dangerous.
  • Last, but not least, the Bielorussian KGB operates in a very tightly controlled Bielorussian society whereas Russian is an open and liberal society, so one could have (mistakenly) thought that a meeting in Moscow would have been a better idea.

Interesting story, no?

Also, if you wonder whether it is credible that the FSB saved Lukashenko – I will remind you that it was the Russians who saved Erdogan from a US-backed coup which was also supposed to include Erdogan’s murder (the Turks practically admitted it publicly several times).

But it gets even better!

As soon as the accusation of a CIA plan to murder Lukashenko in a coup came out, they did what they always do: denied it against all evidence and created a huge distraction: the US colony known as the “Czech Republic” declared that the explosion of a weapons depot in the Czech Republic in 2014 was a Russian sabotage involving…   … wait for it… … drum roll…. the very same Petrov and Boshirov whom the UK accused of poisoning the Skripals!

Friends, the Czechs released this story withing ONE HOUR of the Bielorussian news!  One hour, seriously!

The Czechs immediately expelled 18 Russian diplomats and the Russian reciprocated by expelling 20 Czech diplomats leaving only 5 in Moscow.  So if we use the English expression about the “shitting hitting the fan”, then it would also be fair to refer to the Czechs as “shit shields” for the Empire 🙂

By the way, the official Czech investigation in 2014 concluded that the explosion was caused by negligence, not sabotage but, really, who cares?  After all, look at these accusations, all as unproven and as silly as this one: (partial list in no special order)

  • Russian invaded the Donbass
  • Russia shot down MH-17
  • Russia tried to poison the Skripals
  • Russia murdered Berezovskii
  • Russia tried to poison Litvenenko
  • Russia tried to poison Navalnyi
  • Russia murdered Boris Nemtsov
  • Russia murdered Politkovskaia
  • Russia tried to poison Yushchenko
  • Russia interfered in two US elections
  • Russia hacked the DNC computers
  • Russia paid Afghans to kill US soliders
  • The Russian shot down the aircraft of the Polish president over Smolensk
  • The Russian tried to organize a coup in Montenegro
  • The Russians organized the movement for an independent Catalonia

To repeat, none, NONE of these accusations were ever proven or even substantiated.  ALL of these accusations are solely based on the putatively undeniable credibility of the western special services.

And, of course, the western “Russia experts” all fully endorsed this nonsense (hey, that is what these so-called “experts” are paid to do; as somebody who once was a member of the IISS, I know these “experts” and their “expertise” well enough – I even resigned from the IISS in protest over its total subservience to US anti-Russian narratives).

And people who call themselves “democrats” and people capable of critical thought buy all this shit with no doubts whatsoever, none.  They don’t even see how pathetic and clueless they really are…

So the Czechs (and their US masters) are running a well rehearsed and “safe” track because they all know that the western audience is fully accustomed to hear the following:

We accuse Russia of X, we say that our special services have evidence, but we won’t present any; as for the western media, they will, of course, trust the western special services, because they are “democratic” and, therefore, “trustworthy” (Iraq anybody?!).

Another trick, which the Czechs used in this case, is this: on the first day announce urbi et orbi that “we will soon release all the incontrovertible evidence we have” and then simply declare it classified because it is important not to show the Russians the evidence of their own, putatively Russian, operation.  As for the western press, they, of course, simply forget about that and go onto the the next Russia bashing story.

It is simple, but with the kind of sheep the western regimes deal with, it is also effective.

Finally, when truly desperate, you can count on the MI6 run Bellincat to get their “evidence”, I kid you not, from the social media on the Internet.

And, again, the western sheep “eat it all up”, with appetite and gusto!  Sic transit gloria mundi indeed!

Still, accusing the self same two putative GRU agents Petrov and Boshirov shows how desperate the Czechs were too cook up some story literally overnight.  Now they look stupid beyond any conceivable explanations for such a massive and, frankly, hilarious faceplant.

Will the people of the Czech Republic now revolt in outrage against the sheer idiocy of their leaders?  Nah, of course not.  After all, we are living in a post-truth (and, I would argue, post-logical) world where the only thing which matters is to follow the SS motto of “my honor is fidelity” and blind obedience to the masters of the day.

What about the US in all this?  Would “Biden” really be crazy enough to try to murder a foreign leader?

Well, as I like to say, past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior, right?  How many foreign leaders has the CIA actually murdered and how many did she only try, and fail, to murder?  (Note: somebody ought to compare the number of foreign leaders murdered by the US and the USSR.  I am sure that the comparison would be both shocking and very telling).  How about the official (White House admitted) murder of General Soleimani?  Was that operation not far more dangerous than to use locals to try to assassinate a weakened and embattled leader like Lukashenko?

So, you tell me: true story of “Russian disinformation”?

The Saker

PS: in case you wonder, the Russians are laughing hysterically and scratching their heads wondering what in the world happened to a once civilized western society.

PPS: by the way, the Russian FSB also arrested the Ukie consul in Saint Petersburg at the moment when he was receiving classified information from what he thought was an agent.  He will be expelled.  It was a great week end for the FSB – there will be lost of medals handed out for this good work.

UPDATE1:  Maria Zakharova, the Foreign Ministry’s chief spokeswoman has now officially confirmed it all on Russian TV.

UPDATE2: The Kremlin just confirmed the Putin and Biden discussed this topic during their telephone conference.

UPDATE3: Got to love the western media, not a word about the coup, all about the Czech fairy tale.

بعد تدخل أردوغان في إنتخاباتها حركة حماس إلى أين فهَل تصبح نصفين؟

مجلة تحليلات العصر الدولية – إسماعيل النجار

2021-04-16

حركَة المقاومة الإسلامية حماس، واحدة من أكبر الحركات التحررية الإسلامية في فلسطين وخارجها، بَرَز إسمها على الساحة الفلسطينية في شهر ديسمبر ١٩٨٧ مع إنطلاق الإنتفاضة الفلسطينية الأولى، وكانت قدَ عَرٍَفَت عن نفسها كجناح من أجنحة الإخوان المسلمين في فلسطين ولكنها في الحقيقة أحد أشكال المقاومة التي قرر الفلسطينيون تبنيها ضمن مشوار العمل المقاوم التاريخي الطويل لهم.
**عَرَّفَت حماس عن هويتها الأيديولوجية وطرحها السياسي والفكري أنها حركة جهادية تستند إلى تعاليم الإسلام وتراثه الفقهي، وتؤمن بتوسيع دائرَة الصراع ضد المشروع الصهيوني ليشمل الإطارين العربي والإسلامي إيماناً منها بأن فلسطين هيَ قضية كل الشرفاء في العالم مسلمين ومسيحيين وأن القدس هي مهد الأديان الثلاث التي يحاول الصهاينة تحويلها إلى مدينة يهودية صهيونية فاقدة لحلاوة العيش المشترك بين أطراف الأديان السماوية الثلاث.

**تؤمن الحركة بأن الصراع مع العدو الصهيوني هو صراع حضاري مصيري ذات أبعاد عقائدية وجودية،

وحدَّدَت أهدافها الرئيسية والإستراتيجية أهمها تحرير كافة الأراضي الفلسطينية من البحر إلى النهر وإقامة دولة إسلامية على تراب فلسطين،
**لَم تؤمن حركة حماس بالعمل السياسي من داخل منظمة التحرير الفلسطينية رغم إحترامها الكبير لها، ورفضت الإنضمام إليها إلَّا بشَرط إذا وقعَت منظمة التحرير معها إتفاقاً تتعهد فيه بعدم التفريط بأي شبر من أرض فلسطين التاريخية ورفض الإعتراف بالكيان الصهيوني الأمر الذي رفضته قيادة منظمة التحرير التي تعهدت بالتفاوض مع الكيان الغاصب وتبني حَل الدولتين.

**إهتَمَّت الحركة بقوَة بعمقها الإسلامي والعربي وجاهدت للحفاظ على هويتها الإسلامية والعربية وأجرَت إتصالات مع دُوَل مجلس التعاون الخليجي الذي فَرَضَ عليها شروطاً قاسية مقابل تبنيها كحركة إسلامية تحررية وكان لا بُد للحركة من التنازل قليلاً لكي لا تتعرَّىَ من محيطها التي طالما أعتبرته ثوبها الدافئ ومظلتها الدولية الشرعية،

**تَبَنَّت الجمهورية الإسلامية الحركة ودعمتها بكُل ما أؤتيَت من قوَّة وقدمت لها كل أشكال الدعم المادي والسياسي والعسكري والإعلامي، من دون أي قَيد أو شرط،
[أيضاً تَلَقَّت حماس دعماً واسعاً من دمشق التي إحتَضَنت كبار قياداتها وفتحت لها أبواب سوريا على مصراعيها من دون أي قيد أو شرط، وبقيَت الأمور على حالها حتى عام ٢٠١١ وإنطلاق شرارة الخريف الصهيوني العربي وكانت دمشق واحدة من بين أهدافه الرئيسية حيث تساقطت الأنظمة العربية وهَوَت خلال ثلاثة شهور وأصبحَ قادتها الدكتاتوريين بين قتيلٍ وسجينٍ ولاجئ خارج البلاد.

إلَّا سوريا الأسد التي قررَ رئيسها الحفاظ على الدولة وأمن المواطنين وسلامة المؤسسات التي أستهدفها الإرهابيون وإندلعت المعارك في شوارع دمشق ومحيطها، فكان لحركة حماس موقفاً سلبياً من اللذين إحتضنوهم وأعطوهم الأمان فقرروا الوقوف مع المشروع القطري السعودي الأميركي وساهموا بقتال الجيش العربي السوري على الأرض السورية من خلال وجود المخيمات الفلسطينية داخل العاصمة وخارجها وكان مخيم اليرموك أحد ساحة القتال سيطرت حركة حماس على قسم كبير منه.
*تراجعَت درجة حرارة العلاقات بين طهران وحماس وبيروت وحماس من دون أن تنقطع الإتصالات كلياً بسبب تواصل الكثير من القيادات الحمساوية مع الطرفين الإيراني واللبناني رافضين إنخراط الحركة في الصراع السوري الداخلي ومواقف رئيس الحركة {خالد مشعل} المقيم في قطر، *بينما إنقطعت العلاقات كلياً مع دمشق وأصبَحَت الأمور معقدة جداً بين الطرفين.

**لَم تَكُن تتوقَّع حماس بعد مغادرتها دمشق وإحتضار العلاقة مع طهران وحزب الله أنها ستكون في موقفٍ صعب من خلال الضغوطات الخليجية التي مورِسَت على الحرَكَة بهدف تقديم تنازلات والقبول بحَل الدولتين الذي يعني بقاموسها إعتراف بإسرائيل، ثمَ تأكدَت بإن مشروع التطبيع قائم فحاولت أن تخرج من أزمتها من خلال التوازن بين المحورين العدوين تُبقي من خلاله حماس قدماً في طهران وأُخرَى في الرياض لكن الأخيرة كانت قاسية بما يكفي لإخراج الحركة من بلادها واعتقال مسؤوليها الأمر الذي تلقفته أنقرة بإستقبال قادتها وتبني دعمها سياسياً،
بدأت الأمور تتحسن تدريجياً مع طهران بعد عزل خالد مشعل وتعيين إسماعيل هنية، فتقبلت طهران وحزب الله الأمر لكن سورية بقيت على موقفها الرافض لعودة الحركة الى دمشق رغم وساطة السيد حسن نصرالله، فتُرِك الأمر للأيام ولتغيير الظروف السياسية والعسكرية في المنطقة.

 بعد الدخول التركي إلى قطر إثر الخلاف السعودي مع الدوحَة وإخراج الرياض من معادلة الحل في سوريا، ودخول اردوغان الساحة الليبية كلاعب رئيسي بقوة،
وبعد المصالحة السعودية القطرية (المسيارة) والتقارب السعودي المصري التركي، وإحتدام الصراع بين إسرائيل والجمهورية الإسلامية الإيرانية وإحتمال حصول مواجهة مباشرة شاملة بينهما، فوجئ الجميع بإنتخاب خالد مشعل مسؤولاً لحركة حماس خارج فلسطين بالكامل،
وتسربَت معلومات عن ضغوط تركية كبيرة لأجل ذلك الأمر الذي يشير إلى أن صراعاً سياسياً متحكماً بقيادة الحركة في الداخل والخارج بين طرفين بارزين يشكل محمود الزهار ويحي السنوار وصالح العاروري وغيرهما أحد صقور طهران الأقوياء داخل الحركة، الأمر الذي يشير إلى توجُه حماس نحو قرارين متناقضين خارجي وداخلي بعد إنتخاب مشعل مسؤولاً عن الحركة في الخارج،
فهل تذهب أنقرة من خلال مشروعها لشق صفوف حركة حماس وإضعافها؟

 الأمر يعود إلى شرفاء الحركة اللذين نضع بين أيديهم أمانة وحدة الحركة والفصائل كمواطنين مؤيدين للقضية الفلسطينية.

Tension in Ukraine and the Turkish Straits Issue التوتر في أوكرانيا وقضية المضائق التركية

Tension in Ukraine and the Turkish Straits Issue

Ukraine tensions - Russia, USA, NATO, the Turkish Straits

 ARABI SOURI 

حسني محلي
International relations researcher and specialist in Turkish affairs

The following is the English translation from Arabic of the latest article by Turkish career journalist Husni Mahali he published in the Lebanese Al-Mayadeen news site Al-Mayadeen Net:

The Ukrainian interior, especially the border separating the west and east of the country, is witnessing a dangerous tension, which many expect will turn into hot confrontations between Ukraine backed by America and some European countries and Russia that support separatists in the east of the country, who in 2014 declared autonomy in the republics of Donetsk and Lugansk.

This tension acquires additional importance with the approaching date of the exercises scheduled to take place next month, with the participation of Ukrainian forces and NATO units, the largest of their kind since the fall of the Soviet Union. Moscow sees in these maneuvers, which bear the name ‘Defending Europe – 21’, as a direct threat, because they will include the Black Sea and the North Baltic Seas, which are potential hotbeds of confrontation between Russia and NATO.

All this comes as Washington continues its relentless efforts to include Ukraine and Georgia in the (NATO) alliance before the end of this year, after it included in 2004 both Bulgaria and Romania to it, in an attempt to tighten the blockade on Russia in the Black Sea, which Turkey also overlooks.

President Biden called his Ukrainian counterpart Zalinsky (a Jew and a friend of Netanyahu), and after that the contacts made by the defense and foreign ministers, the chief of staff, and the secretary-general of the US National Security Council with their Ukrainian counterparts this week, to prove the seriousness of the situation in the region, after Washington confirmed its absolute support for Ukraine in its crisis with Russia.

The Russian response to these US-Ukrainian provocations was not late, Moscow mobilized very large forces in the region, and large naval maneuvers began in the Crimea and the Krasnodar region in southeastern Ukraine and in the northern Black Sea.

The timing of the Turkish Parliament Speaker Mustafa Shantop’s speech about President Erdogan’s powers to withdraw from the Montreux Convention gained additional importance, because it coincided with the escalation between Moscow and Washington, and sparked a new debate in the Turkish, Russian and Western streets, as 120 retired Turkish diplomats signed, and after them 103 admirals retirees, on two separate statements in which they denounced Shantop’s words, and said: ‘The withdrawal from the Montreux Agreement puts Turkey in front of new and dangerous challenges in its foreign policy, and forces it to align itself with one of the parties to the conflict in the region.

The response came quickly from Interior Minister Suleiman Soylu and Fakhruddin Altun, spokesman for President Erdogan, who accused the admirals of ‘seeking a new coup attempt. While the Public Prosecutor filed an urgent lawsuit against the signatories of the Military personnel’s statement, the leader of the National Movement Party, Devlet Bakhsali, Erdogan’s ally, demanded that they be tried and their pensions cut off. Some see this discussion as an introduction to what Erdogan is preparing for with regard to the straits and raising the level of bargaining with President Putin.

The ‘Montreux Convention’ of 1936 recognized Turkey’s ownership of the Bosporus and the Dardanelles straits while ensuring freedom of commercial navigation in them for all ships, and set strict conditions for the passage of warships owned by countries not bordering the Black Sea through these straits. Washington does not hide its dissatisfaction with this convention, and since the fall of the Soviet Union, it has been planning to send the largest possible number of its warships to the Black Sea and the bases it is now seeking to establish in Bulgaria and Romania, and later Ukraine and Georgia.

With Turkey’s support for this American scheme, Russian warships will find themselves in a difficult situation en route to and from the Mediterranean. Russian diplomatic circles have considered the Istanbul channel that Erdogan seeks to split between the Sea of Marmara and the Black Sea, parallel to the Bosphorus, as an attempt by Ankara to circumvent the ‘Montreux Convention’, so that American and (North) Atlantic warships can pass through this channel in the quantity and sizes they want, far from the conditions of the Montreux Convention.

All these facts make Turkey, directly or indirectly, an important party in the possible hot confrontations in Ukraine, given Ankara’s intertwined strategic relations with Kiev, especially in the field of war industries, especially the jet engines for drones and advanced missiles. In addition to this, the Turkish religious and national interest in the Crimea region, which Muslims make up about 15% of its population, with their bad memories during the communist Soviet rule, the ideological enemy of the Turkish state, which is the heir to the Ottoman Empire, which is the historical enemy of the Russian Empire.

Whatever the potential developments in the Ukrainian crisis and their implications for the Turkish role in the Black Sea region, with their complex calculations, Moscow and Washington (and their European allies) do not neglect their other regional and international accounts in the Mediterranean and Red Sea regions, especially with the continuation of the Syrian, Yemeni, Somali and Libyan crises, and their repercussions on the balance of power in the basins of the Straits of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb and the Eastern Mediterranean, where ‘Israel’ is present, which borders Jordan with its recent surprising events.

Erdogan Used 3000 Syrian Terrorists in the Nagorno Karabach Battles

https://syrianews.cc/erdogan-used-3000-syrian-terrorists-in-the-nagorno-karabach-battles/embed/#?secret=MqFNSvMgQn

Here, the recent Russian-Iranian-Chinese moves with their various elements gain additional importance, because they disturbed and worried Western capitals, which found themselves forced, even in their last attempt, to distance Tehran from this alliance, by returning to the nuclear agreement as soon as possible.

Washington and Western capitals believe that this may help them to devote themselves to the Ukraine crisis, and then to similar issues in other regions, through which it aims to tighten the siege on Russia in its backyards in Central Asia and the Caucasus, where Georgia and Azerbaijan have direct links with Turkey.

It has become clear that, with all its geostrategic advantages, it will be the arena of competition, and perhaps direct and indirect future conflict between Washington and Moscow, as they race together to gain more positions in its arena, which supports President Erdogan’s position externally, because his accounts have become intertwined in Syria and Karabakh with Russia, and its ally Iran, it will also support his projects and plans internally to stay in power forever, thanks to US and European economic and financial support. Without this, he cannot achieve anything.

The bet remains on the content of the phone call that the Turkish president is waiting for from President Biden, for which many have written many different scenarios that will have their results reflected on the overall US-Russian competitions. This possibility will raise the bargaining ceiling between Erdogan and both Putin and Biden, whoever pays the most will win Turkey on his side or prevent it from allying with his enemy.

Intercontinental Wars – Part 3 The Open Confrontation

https://syrianews.cc/intercontinental-wars-part-3-the-open-confrontation/embed/#?secret=byysW2Qrix

Tsar Putin Brings the Sultan Wannabe Erdogan Half Way Down the Tree

https://syrianews.cc/tsar-putin-brings-the-sultan-wannabe-erdogan-half-way-down-the-tree/embed/#?secret=AkXY3KfFOg

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التوتر في أوكرانيا وقضية المضائق التركية

حسني محلي
باحث علاقات دولية ومختصص بالشأن التركي

حسني محلي

المصدر: الميادين نت

5 نيسان 12:08

مهما كانت التطورات المحتملة في الأزمة الأوكرانية وانعكاساتها على الدور التركي في منطقة البحر الأسود، بحساباتها المعقدة، لا تهمل موسكو وواشنطن حسابتهما الإقليمية والدولية الأخرى في منطقتي الأبيض المتوسط والأحمر.

التوتر في أوكرانيا وقضية المضائق التركية
تسعى واشنطن لضم أوكرانيا إلى حلف شمال الأطلسي

يشهد الداخل الأوكراني، وخصوصاً الحدود الفاصلة بين غرب البلاد وشرقها، توتراً خطيراً يتوقع الكثيرون أن يتحوّل إلى مواجهات ساخنة بين أوكرانيا المدعومة من أميركا وبعض الدول الأوروبية وروسيا التي تدعم الانفصاليين شرق البلاد، الذين أعلنوا في العام 2014 حكماً ذاتياً في جمهوريتي دونيتسك ولوغانسك.

يكتسب هذا التوتّر أهمية إضافية مع اقتراب موعد المناورات المقرر إجراؤها الشهر القادم، بمشاركة القوات الأوكرانية ووحدات الحلف الأطلسي، وهي الأكبر من نوعها منذ سقوط الاتحاد السوفياتي. ترى موسكو في هذه المناورات التي تحمل اسم “الدفاع عن أوروبا – 21” خطراً يستهدفها بشكلٍ مباشر، لأنّها ستشمل البحر الأسود وبحر البلطيق الشمالي، وهي ساحات المواجهة الساخنة المحتملة بين روسيا والحلف الأطلسي.

يأتي كلّ ذلك مع استمرار مساعي واشنطن الحثيثة لضم أوكرانيا وجورجيا إلى الحلف قبل نهاية العام الجاري، بعد أن ضمّت في العام 2004 كلاً من بلغاريا ورومانيا إليه، في محاولة منها لتضييق الحصار على روسيا في البحر الأسود الذي تطل تركيا أيضاً عليه.

وجاء اتصال الرئيس بايدن بنظيره الأوكراني زالينسكي (يهودي وصديق لنتنياهو)، وبعده الاتصالات التي أجراها وزراء الدفاع والخارجية ورئيس الأركان وسكرتير عام مجلس الأمن القومي الأميركي بنظرائهم الأوكرانيين خلال الأسبوع الجاري، لتثبت مدى جدية الوضع في المنطقة، بعد أن أكدت واشنطن دعمها المطلق لأوكرانيا في أزمتها مع روسيا.

لم يتأخّر الرد الروسي على هذه الاستفزازات الأميركية – الأوكرانية، فقامت موسكو بحشد قوات كبيرة جداً في المنطقة، وبدأت مناورات بحرية واسعة في شبه جزيرة القرم وإقليم كراسنودار جنوب شرق أوكرانيا وفي شمال البحر الأسود. 

وقد اكتسب التوقيت الزمني لحديث رئيس البرلمان التركي مصطفى شانتوب عن صلاحيات الرئيس إردوغان للانسحاب من اتفاقية “مونترو” أهمية إضافية، لأنه تزامن مع التصعيد بين موسكو وواشنطن، وأثار نقاشاً جديداً في الشارع التركي والروسي والغربي، إذ وقّع 120 دبلوماسياً تركياً متقاعداً، وبعدهم 103 أميرالات متقاعدين، على بيانين منفصلين استنكروا فيهما كلام شانتوب، وقالوا: “إن الانسحاب من اتفاقية “مونترو” يضع تركيا أمام تحديات جديدة وخطيرة في سياستها الخارجية، ويجبرها على الانحياز إلى أحد أطراف الصراع في المنطقة”.

جاء الرد سريعاً على لسان وزير الداخلية سليمان صويلو، وفخر الدين التون، المتحدث باسم الرئيس إردوغان، اللذين اتهما الأميرالات “بالسعي لمحاولة انقلاب جديدة”، فيما أقام وكيل النيابة العامة دعوى قضائية عاجلة ضد الموقعين على بيان العسكر، وطالب زعيم حزب الحركة القومية دولت باخشالي، حليف إردوغان، بمحاكمتهم وقطع المرتبات التقاعدية عنهم. ويرى البعض أن هذا النقاش مقدمة لما يحضّر له إردوغان في ما يتعلق بالمضائق ورفع مستوى المساومة مع الرئيس بوتين. 

وكانت اتفاقية “مونترو” للعام 1936 قد اعترفت بملكية تركيا لمضيقي البوسفور والدردنيل، مع ضمان حرية الملاحة التجارية فيهما لجميع السفن، وحددت شروطاً صارمة على مرور السفن الحربية التي تملكها الدول غير المطلة على البحر الأسود من هذه المضائق. لا تخفي واشنطن عدم ارتياحها إلى هذه الاتفاقية، وهي تخطط منذ سقوط الاتحاد السوفياتي لإرسال أكبر عدد ممكن من سفنها الحربية إلى البحر الأسود، وتسعى الآن إلى إنشاء قواعد في بلغاريا ورومانيا، ولاحقاً في أوكرانيا وجورجيا.

وبدعم تركيا لهذا المخطط الأميركي، ستجد السفن الحربية الروسية نفسها في وضع صعب في الطريق من البحر الأبيض المتوسط وإليه. وقد اعتبرت أوساط دبلوماسية روسية قناة إسطنبول التي يسعى إردوغان لشقّها بين بحر مرمرة والبحر الأسود، وبشكل موازٍ لمضيق البوسفور، محاولة من أنقرة للالتفاف على اتفاقية “مونترو”، حتى يتسنّى للسفن الحربية الأميركية والأطلسية المرور في هذه القناة بالكم والكيف اللذين تشاؤهما، بعيداً من شروط اتفاقية “مونترو”.

كل هذه المعطيات تجعل تركيا، بشكل مباشر أو غير مباشر، طرفاً مهماً في المواجهات الساخنة المحتملة في أوكرانيا، نظراً إلى علاقات أنقرة الاستراتيجية المتشابكة مع كييف، وخصوصاً في مجال الصناعات الحربية، وفي مقدمتها المحركات النفاثة للطائرات المسيّرة والصواريخ المتطورة. يُضاف إلى ذلك الاهتمام التركي الديني والقومي بمنطقة القرم التي يشكل المسلمون حوالى 15% من سكّانها، مع ذكرياتهم السيّئة خلال الحكم السوفياتي الشيوعي، العدو العقائدي للدولة التركية، وهي وريثة الإمبراطورية العثمانية التي تعدّ العدو التاريخي للإمبراطورية الروسيّة.

مهما كانت التطورات المحتملة في الأزمة الأوكرانية وانعكاساتها على الدور التركي في منطقة البحر الأسود، بحساباتها المعقدة، لا تهمل موسكو وواشنطن (وحلفاؤهما الأوروبيون) حسابتهما الإقليمية والدولية الأخرى في منطقتي الأبيض المتوسط والأحمر، وخصوصاً مع استمرار الأزمات السورية واليمنية والصومالية والليبية، وانعكاساتها على موازين القوى في حوضي مضيقي هرمز وباب المندب وشرق الأبيض المتوسط، حيث تتواجد “إسرائيل” التي تحتل فلسطين المجاورة للأردن بأحداثه الأخيرة المفاجئة.

وهنا، تكتسب التحركات الروسية – الإيرانية – الصينية الأخيرة بعناصرها المختلفة أهمية إضافية، لأنها أزعجت وأقلقت العواصم الغربية التي وجدت نفسها مضطرة، ولو في محاولة أخيرة منها، إلى إبعاد طهران عن هذا التحالف، عبر العودة إلى الاتفاق النووي بأسرع ما يمكن. 

وتعتقد واشنطن والعواصم الغربية أن ذلك قد يساعدها للتفرغ لأزمة أوكرانيا، وبعدها لقضايا مماثلة في مناطق أخرى، تهدف من خلالها إلى تضييق الحصار على روسيا في حدائقها الخلفية في آسيا الوسطى والقوقاز، حيث جورجيا وأذربيجان ذات الصلة المباشرة مع تركيا. 

وقد بات واضحاً أنها، وبكل مزاياها الجيوستراتيجية، ستكون ساحة المنافسة، وربما الصراع المستقبلي المباشر وغير المباشر بين واشنطن وموسكو، وهما تتسابقان معاً لكسب المزيد من المواقع في ساحتها، وهو ما يدعم موقف الرئيس إردوغان خارجياً، لأن حساباته باتت متداخلة في سوريا وكاراباخ مع روسيا وحليفتها إيران، كما سيدعم مشاريعه ومخططاته داخلياً للبقاء في السلطة إلى الأبد، بفضل الدعم الاقتصادي والمالي الأميركي والأوروبي. ومن دون ذلك، لا يمكنه أن يحقق شيئاً.

يبقى الرهان على فحوى المكالمة الهاتفية التي ينتظرها الرئيس التركي من الرئيس بايدن، والتي كتب من أجلها الكثيرون العديد من السيناريوهات المختلفة التي ستنعكس بنتائجها على مجمل المنافسات الأميركية – الروسية. سيرفع هذا الاحتمال سقف المساومة بين إردوغان وكلٍّ من بوتين وبايدن. ومن يدفع منهم أكثر سوف يكسب تركيا إلى جانبه أو يمنعها من التحالف مع عدوه.

حتى تلك الساعة، يبدو واضحاً أن الجميع يراهن على مضمون الصفقة التي سيقترحها الرئيس بايدن على الرئيس إردوغان، وشروط الأخير للقبول بتفاصيلها أو رفضها، وهو يدري أن الرئيس بوتين يملك بدوره ما يكفيه من الأوراق لإبقاء تركيا خارج الحلبة الأميركية، حتى لا تعود، كما كانت في سنوات الحرب الباردة، سمكة عالقة في الصنارة الأميركية. 

Ukraine redux: war, Russophobia and Pipelineistan

Ukraine redux: war, Russophobia and Pipelineistan

April 07, 2021

By Pepe Escobar, posted with permission and first posted at Asia Times

Ukraine and Russia may be on the brink of war – with dire consequences for the whole of Eurasia. Let’s cut to the chase, and plunge head-on into the fog of war.

On March 24, Ukrainian President Zelensky, for all practical purposes, signed a declaration of war against Russia, via decree No. 117/2021.

The decree establishes that retaking Crimea from Russia is now Kiev’s official policy. That’s exactly what prompted an array of Ukrainian battle tanks to be shipped east on flatbed rail cars, following the saturation of the Ukrainian army by the US with military equipment including unmanned aerial vehicles, electronic warfare systems, anti-tank systems and man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS).

More crucially, the Zelensky decree is the proof any subsequent war will have been prompted by Kiev, debunking the proverbial claims of “Russian aggression.” Crimea, since the referendum of March 2014, is part of the Russian Federation.

It was this (italics mine) de facto declaration of war, which Moscow took very seriously, that prompted the deployment of extra Russian forces to Crimea and closer to the Russian border with Donbass. Significantly, these include the crack 76th  Guards Air Assault Brigade, known as the Pskov paratroopers and, according to an intel report quoted to me, capable of taking Ukraine in only six hours.

It certainly does not help that in early April US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, fresh from his former position as a board member of missile manufacturer Raytheon, called Zelensky to promise “unwavering US support for Ukraine’s sovereignty.” That ties in with Moscow’s interpretation that Zelensky would never have signed his decree without a green light from Washington.

Controlling the narrative

Sevastopol, already when I visited in December 2018, is one of the most heavily defended places on the planet, impervious even to a NATO attack. In his decree, Zelensky specifically identifies Sevastopol as a prime target.

Once again, we’re back to 2014 post-Maidan unfinished business.

To contain Russia, the US deep state/NATO combo needs to control the Black Sea – which, for all practical purposes, is now a Russian lake. And to control the Black Sea, they need to “neutralize” Crimea.

If any extra proof was necessary, it was provided by Zelensky himself on Tuesday this week in a phone call with NATO secretary-general and docile puppet Jens Stoltenberg.

Zelensky uttered the key phrase: “NATO is the only way to end the war in Donbass” – which means, in practice, NATO expanding its “presence” in the Black Sea. “Such a permanent presence should be a powerful deterrent to Russia, which continues the large-scale militarization of the region and hinders merchant shipping.”

All of these crucial developments are and will continue to be invisible to global public opinion when it comes to the predominant, hegemon-controlled narrative.

The deep state/NATO combo is imprinting 24/7 that whatever happens next is due to “Russian aggression.” Even if the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) launch a blitzkrieg against the Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics. (To do so against Sevastopol in Crimea would be certified mass suicide).

In the United States, Ron Paul has been one of the very few voices to state the obvious:  “According to the media branch of the US military-industrial-congressional-media complex, Russian troop movements are not a response to clear threats from a neighbor, but instead are just more ‘Russian aggression.’”

What’s implied is that Washington/Brussels don’t have a clear tactical, much less strategic game plan: only total narrative control.

And that is fueled by rabid Russophobia – masterfully deconstructed by the indispensable Andrei Martyanov, one of the world’s top military analysts.

A possibly hopeful sign is that on March 31, the chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, General Valery Gerasimov, and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, talked on the phone about the proverbial “issues of mutual interest.”

Days later, a Franco-German statement came out, calling on “all parties” to de-escalate. Merkel and Macron seem to have gotten the message in their videoconference with Putin – who must have subtly alluded to the effect generated by Kalibrs, Kinzhals and assorted hypersonic weapons if the going gets tough and the Europeans sanction a Kiev blitzkrieg.

The problem is Merkel and Macron don’t control NATO. Yet Merkel and Macron at least are fully aware that if the US/NATO combo attacks Russian forces or Russian passport holders who live in Donbass, the devastating response will target the command centers that coordinated the attacks.

What does the hegemon want?

As part of his current Energizer bunny act, Zelensky made an extra eyebrow-raising move. This past Monday, he visited Qatar with a lofty delegation and clinched a raft of deals, not circumscribed to LNG but also including direct Kiev-Doha flights; Doha leasing or buying a Black Sea port; and strong “defense/military ties” – which could be a lovely euphemism for a possible transfer of jihadis from Libya and Syria to fight Russian infidels in Donbass.

Right on cue, Zelensly meets Turkey’s Erdogan next Monday. Erdogan’s intel services run the jihadi proxies in Idlib, and dodgy Qatari funds are still part of the picture. Arguably, the Turks are already transferring those “moderate rebels” to Ukraine. Russian intel is meticulously monitoring all this activity.

A series of informed discussions – see, for instance, here and here – is converging on what may be the top three targets for the hegemon amid all this mess, short of war: to provoke an irreparable fissure between Russia and the EU, under NATO auspices; to crash the Nord Steam 2 pipeline; and to boost profits in the weapons business for the military-industrial complex.

So the key question then is whether Moscow would be able to apply a Sun Tzu move short of being lured into a hot war in the Donbass.

On the ground, the outlook is grim. Denis Pushilin, one of the top leaders of the Lugansk and Donetsk people’s republics, has stated that the chances of avoiding war are “extremely small.” Serbian sniper Dejan Beric – whom I met in Donetsk in 2015 and who is a certified expert on the ground – expects a Kiev attack in early May.

The extremely controversial Igor Strelkov, who may be termed an exponent of “orthodox socialism,” a sharp critic of the Kremlin’s policies who is one of the very few warlords who survived after 2014, has unequivocally stated that the only chance for peace is for the Russian army to control Ukrainian territory at least up to the Dnieper river. He stresses that a war in April is “very likely”; for Russia war “now” is better than war later; and there’s a 99% possibility that Washington will not fight for Ukraine.

On this last item at least Strelkov has a point; Washington and NATO want a war fought to the last Ukrainian.

Rostislav Ischenko, the top Russian analyst of Ukraine whom I had the pleasure of meeting in Moscow in late 2018, persuasively argues that, “the overall diplomatic, military, political, financial and economic situation powerfully requires the Kiev authorities to intensify combat operations in Donbass.

“By the way,” Ischenko added, “the Americans do not give a damn whether Ukraine will hold out for any time or whether it will be blown to pieces in an instant. They believe they stand to gain from either outcome.”

Gotta defend Europe

Let’s assume the worst in Donbass. Kiev launches its blitzkrieg. Russian intel documents everything. Moscow instantly announces it is using the full authority conferred by the UNSC to enforce the Minsk 2 ceasefire.

In what would be a matter of 8 hours or a maximum 48 hours, Russian forces smash the whole blitzkrieg apparatus to smithereens and send the Ukrainians back to their sandbox, which is approximately 75km north of the established contact zone.

In the Black Sea, incidentally, there’s no contact zone. This means Russia may send out all its advanced subs plus the surface fleet anywhere around the “Russian lake”: They are already deployed anyway.

Once again Martyanov lays down the law when he predicts, referring to a group of Russian missiles developed by the Novator Design Bureau: “Crushing Ukies’ command and control system is a matter of few hours, be that near border or in the operational and strategic Uki depth. Basically speaking, the whole of the Ukrainian ‘navy’ is worth less than the salvo of 3M54 or 3M14 which will be required to sink it. I think couple of Tarantuls will be enough to finish it off in or near Odessa and then give Kiev, especially its government district, a taste of modern stand-off weapons.”

The absolutely key issue, which cannot be emphasized enough, is that Russia will not (italics mine) “invade” Ukraine. It doesn’t need to, and it doesn’t want to. What Moscow will do for sure is to support the Novorossiya people’s republics with equipment, intel, electronic warfare, control of airspace and special forces. Even a no-fly zone will not be necessary; the “message” will be clear that were a NATO fighter jet to show up near the frontline, it would be summarily shot down.

And that brings us to the open “secret” whispered only in informal dinners in Brussels, and chancelleries across Eurasia: NATO puppets do not have the balls to get into an open conflict with Russia.

One thing is to have yapping dogs like Poland, Romania, the Baltic gang and Ukraine amplified by corporate media on their “Russian aggression” script. Factually, NATO had its collective behind unceremoniously kicked in Afghanistan. It shivered when it had to fight the Serbs in the late 1990s. And in the 2010s, it did not dare fight the Damascus and Axis of Resistance forces.

When all fails, myth prevails. Enter the US Army occupying parts of Europe to “defend” it against – who else? – those pesky Russians.

That’s the rationale behind the annual US Army DEFENDER-Europe 21, now on till the end of June, mobilizing 28,000 soldiers from the US and 25 NATO allies and “partners.”

This month, men and heavy equipment pre-positioned in three US Army depots in Italy, Germany and the Netherlands will be transferred to multiple “training areas” in 12 countries. Oh, the joys of travel, no lockdown in an open air exercise since everyone has been fully vaccinated against Covid-19.

Pipelineistan uber alles

Nord Stream 2 is not a big deal for Moscow; it’s a Pipelineistan inconvenience at best. After all the Russian economy did not make a single ruble out of the not yet existent pipeline during the 2010s – and still it did fine. If NS2 is canceled, there are plans on the table to redirect the bulk of Russian gas shipments towards Eurasia, especially China.

In parallel, Berlin knows very well that canceling NS2 will be an extremely serious breach of contract – involving hundreds of billions of euros; it was Germany that requested the pipeline to be built in the first place.

Germany’s energiewende (“energy transition” policy) has been a disaster. German industrialists know very well that natural gas is the only alternative to nuclear energy. They are not exactly fond of Berlin becoming a mere hostage, condemned to buy ridiculously expensive shale gas from the hegemon – even assuming the hegemon will be able to deliver, as its fracking industry is in shambles. Merkel explaining to German public opinion why they must revert to using coal or buy shale from the US will be a sight to see.

As it stands, NATO provocations against NS2 proceed unabated – via warships and helicopters. NS2 needed a permit to work in Danish waters, and it was granted only a month ago. Even as Russian ships are not as fast in laying pipes as the previous ships from Swiss-based Allseas, which backed down, intimidated by US sanctions, the Russian Fortuna is making steady progress, as noted by analyst Petri Krohn: one kilometer a day on its best days, at least 800 meters a day. With 35 km left, that should not take more than 50 days.

Conversations with German analysts reveal a fascinating shadowplay on the energy front between Berlin and Moscow – not to mention Beijing. Compare it with Washington: EU diplomats complain there’s absolutely no one to negotiate with regarding NS2. And even assuming there would be some sort of deal, Berlin is inclined to admit Putin’s judgment is correct: the Americans are “not agreement-capable.” One just needs to look at the record.

Behind the fog of war, though, a clear scenario emerges: the deep state/NATO combo using Kiev to start a war as a Hail Mary pass to ultimately bury NS2, and thus German-Russian relations.

At the same time, the situation is evolving towards a possible new alignment in the heart of the “West”: US/UK pitted against Germany/France. Some Anglosphere exceptionals are certainly more Russophobic than others.

The toxic encounter between Russophobia and Pipelineistan will not be over even if NS2 is completed. There will be more sanctions. There will be an attempt to exclude Russia from SWIFT. The proxy war in Syria will intensify. The hegemon will go no holds barred to keep creating all sorts of geopolitical harassment against Russia.

What a nice wag-the-dog op to distract domestic public opinion from massive money printing masking a looming economic collapse. As the empire crumbles, the narrative is set in stone: it’s all the fault of “Russian aggression.”

اردوغان والاخوان بين سكين ابراهيم ونبوءة اوديب .. هل سيأكل الأب أبناءه؟

نُشرت بتاريخ 2021/04/02 بواسطة naram.serjoonn


سننسى قريبا اسطورة اوديب الذي قالت النبوءة انه سيقتل اباه ويتزوج أمه .. لأننا نقترب من مشهد أكثر درامية واثارة .. وهو مشهد الاب الذي يقتل ابناءه .. وقد يتزوج بناته ..

ان المشهد الذي يترقبه كثيرون ليس في الاسطورة بل في تركيا حيث اردوغان ابو الاخوان قد يقدم على خطوة مفاجئة ويضحي بأبنائه الاخوان من أجل ابنائه الاتراك ..
قبضايات الاخوان المسلمين الذين ظهروا كأبناء مطيعين للأب الخليفة سيجدون انفسهم في موقف صعب جدا وامام خيار قاس جدا .. اما ان يقتلهم الأب او أن يقتلوا الاب .. الأب يريد ان يقتلهم لأن العرافات والنبوءات الاقتصادية والسياسية تقول له ان الاخوان المسلمين صاروا عبئا على تحركات تركيا التي يجب ان تفرغ حمولتها من هذه الشحنة الخطرة المسماة الاخوان المسلمين العرب الذين صار وجودهم في تركيا سبب تعثر السياسات الخارجية ..
الشيء الوحيد الذي يجمع اردوغان والاخوان المسلمين هو الانتهازية السياسية وميزة التلون العقائدي والتي تجعل ثقافة العمل السياسي مبنية على الغدر والطعن .. وكلاهما مشهود له بالطعن والغدر على أعلى مستوى ..

ورغم ان التقية هي التهمة التي يرميها الوهابيون والمتطرفون على الأقليات الدينية لتجنب الظهور على حقيقة دعاواها .. فان أكثر من مارس التقية السياسة هو اردوغان والاخوان المسلمون .. فاردوغان تقرب من زعماء الدول والزعماء السياسيين جميعا سواء في تركيا ام خارجها ولكن الجميع تلقى منه طعنة في الظهر .. واما الاخوان المسلمون فقد أغدقوا في الشعارات والوعود طوال 90 سنة والتي كانت كلها شعارات للتقية .. فغاية الغايات لهم هي الدنيا والسلطة .. وعندما وصلوا الى السلطة في مصر غيروا كل ماقالوه ومحوه بالممحاة .. واعتذروا عن قتل السادات واجروا مراجعاتهم الشهيرة ثم توجوا مراجعاتهم باعلان محمد مرسي لصداقته العظيمة من الاسرائيليين في اعلان صادم مليء بالتنكر لكل الشعارات التي عمرت 90 عاما ..

وقبلهم كان قادة حماس يأكلون من خبز دمشق ويشربون من مائها ويحتمون بسيوفها ثم فجأة طعنوها في الظهر ..
اليوم يقف الأب العثماني مع أبنائه وجها لوجه أمام الحقيقة .. الغدار مع الغدارين وجها لوجه .. فمن سيطعن الاخر ؟؟ ومن سيـأكل الاخر؟؟ هل سيقتل اوديب أباه ام ان أبا بلال سيأكل أواديبه؟؟ ام ان الاخوان المسلمين سينظرون الى حركة اردوغان على انها حركة ابراهيمية تشبه قرار النبي ابراهيم بذبح ابنه اسماعيل من أجل الرؤيا الالهية؟؟ …

ولكن هل سيقبل الاخوان ان يضحوا بأنفسهم من اجل أبيهم الذي يبدو انه لايملك كبشا يفتديهم به بل سيبيعهم ليحصل على كبش اقتصادي وعقود لاطعام أبنائه الاتراك الذين تعصف بهم الازمات منذ ان اتخذ اردوغان قراره المجنون بالعمل كمتعاقد تركي اسلامي مع الناتو وساهم في تدمير كل علاقات تركيا مع الجيران جميعا؟؟ ..
هذه حلقة مفيدة فيها نبوءة عن مصير الاخوان المسلمين في تركيا .. هل سنرى اوديب مقتولا ام اسماعيل مذبوحا من اجل بقاء الخليفة ؟؟ ..

حلقة يقدمها الباحث التونسي البارز رياض صيداوي .. وأنصحك بالاستماع .. ثم قل رأيك فيما سمعت

صاحب المعجزة الاقتصادية التركية عاجز .. الليرة التركية تستغيث اذ تستعد لليلة;الدخلة

نارام سرجون

بتاريخ 2021/03/23 

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is nizar3.jpg
naram.serjoonn نارام سرحون

كنت أفشل فورا كلما حاولت ان أشرح للاسلاميين ان الفقاعة الاقتصادية التركية غير حقيقية لانها مثل الجسد المحقون بالكورتيزون الطبي حيث ينتفخ ويتورم ولكن العلة لاتزال فيه .. الاستثمارات في البورصة التركية جاءت بشكل مريب مثل لعبة القمار ورفعت الاقتصاد بشكل سريع .. ونسب هذا النهوض الى فكرة (الاسلام هو الحل) الذي جاء به الاسلاميون الاتراك .. ويسهب المتحدثون المتحمسون المعجبون بالتجرية التركية في الحديث عن الرقم السحري لترتيب الاقتصاد التركي الذي وصل الى المرتبة 17 في العالم .. وكلما فتح احد فمه للاعتراض والتشكيك تعالت الأصوات الساخطة الساخرة والهابطة .. (شو عم يحكي هاد؟؟ خلوه يسكت موفهمان شي) .. رغم ان رقم 17 في الترتيب الاقتصادي العالمي كان يذكرني بترتيب الجيش العراقي الذي دخل الكويت الذي صنف على انه الجيش الرابع في العالم .. وتبين ان النفخ في الجيش الرابع في العالم كان لتبرير ضربه بقسوة فائقة وتدميره .. فالجيش الرابع في العالم يجب ان يضرب بسلاح فائق التدمير وبلا رحمة ولاتوقف .. وتبين ان الجيش الرابع في العالم كان بالعدد فقط رابعا ولكن من غير طيران ولاتكنولوجيا ولاعدة متطورة .. وحكاية الاقتصاد السابع عشر في العالم قصة مضخمة تشبه حكاية الجيش الرابع في العالم .. رغم محبتي واحترامي للجيش العراقي لكنه لم يكن الجيش الرابع في العالم ولا الرابع عشر عندما تم نقخ الدعاية الغربية لغاية في نفس بني اسرائيل ..

لايوجد اقتصاد بهذه المرتية في العالم دون صناعات ثقيلة وأسواق واسعة تستوعبه او اسواق مال كبيرة .. فلا هو دخل اوروبة ولاامريكا .. وأسواق استرالي وامريكا الجنوبية او أفريقيا.. فالاقتصاد الحقيقي هو بقيمة السلع الحقيقية التي يطرحها .. ولكن الاقتصاد التركي لم يقدم لنا سيارات ولا طيارات ولا كومبيوترات ولا اي شيء .. سوى السياحة والمسلسلات التركية .. وهذه ليست اقتصادا كاملا بل جزءا من اقتصاد ..

بل ان افضل مرحلة انتعش فيها الاقتصاد التركي هي عندما انفتح على الجنوب بتسهيلات سورية حيث لأول مرة انتعش اقتصاد الاناضول بشكل حقيقي على حساب اقتصاد تركيا في الجانب الاوروبي بسبب النقلة الكبيرة في التسهيلات السورية للتجارة التركية ..
تركيا الغبية لم تستمع لصوت العقل عندما عرض الرئيس الأسد مشروع البحار الخمسة التي تضم العرب وايران وتركيا .. ولو نفذ هذا المشروع لكان انقاذا حقيقيا للاقتصادات الثلاثة .. عقل اردوغان المحشو بالعثمانيات لايؤمن الا بالنجاح العثماني الصرف والبطولة الفردية .. وظن ان اميريكا واوروبة ستعطيانه الشرق الاوسط ليصبح قوة عظمى ويصبح قادرا على فرض شروطه على الغرب .. هذه العقلية الأنانية تسببت في مشاكل تركيا التي لن تجد لها حلا .. الحل كان في الجنوب والبواية السورية العراقية .. وهذا انتهى الى الابد .. ولن يفتح الباب جنوبا طالما ان حزب العدالة والتنمية في السلطة وطالما ان اردوغان في الحكم .. وعلى تركيا ان تدفع ثمن جنون العظمة .. ..

الاقتصاد التركي يترنح .. والاستثمارات الأجنبية تتراجع وتهرب .. والاسلام التركي لم يجد الحل .. ومعادلة الاسلام هو الحل تبين انها خدعة وكذبة اخوانية .. والاموال التي تدفقت في عروق البورصة التركية تتسلل خلسة اليوم من البورصة التركية .. وهذه مؤشرات سحب الدعم الغربي عن زمن حزب العدالة والتنمية .. رغم ان اردوغان يحاول جهده في بث الثقة بالاقتصاد والليرة التركية ولكن عبثا .. فكل ماسرقه من أموال ومعامل السوريين لايعتبر اقتصادا ثابتا والتلاعب بالسعوديين وابتزازهم بقصة الخاشقجي ارتدت عليه لأن مستوردات السعودية والخليج من البضائع التركية انخفضت بنسبة 90% ..

وفي يوم واحد انهارت العملة التركية وخسرت 10% من قيمتها بسبب قرارات اردوغان المتخبطة ..

مرة يقترب اردوغان من مصر ومرة من نفط ليبيا ومرة يتهاوش مع اليونانيين ومرة يريد ان يساعد في نقل الغاز الروسي .. كلها أعمال فوضوية ومرتبكة .. والليرة في حضن أردوغان مثل الطفلة في يد ابيها وهي تحتضر وتموت .. وهو يحس بالذنب لأنه لم بعطها الدواء الصحيح بسبب عجرفته وطيشه وجشعه ..

ماذا يفعل اردوغان سوى ان يحفر قبرا لليرة التركية .. ويعلن نهاية الفقاعة ونهابة المغامرة .. والاقتصاد التركي سيهتز اكثر .. ومايخشى ان اموال السوريين المهربة الى تركيا وكل استثماراتهم وكل ماسرقه المعارضون واللصوص الاتراك سيقع ايضا مع وقوع الاقتصاد التركي قريبا .. وستكون افضل نصيحة لهم أن يهربوا بأموالهم من تركيا .. ولو كان فيهم عقل لاعادوا اموالهم الى بلادهم .. لأن الليرة السورية ليست مثل الليرة التركية .. فالازمة الحالية لليرة السورية ليست حقيقية وليست تعكس الا حالة نفسية للاسواق والمضاربات والشائعات .. وهذه ستنتهي بمجرد ان يحدث تراجع خفيف في التشنج الامريكي او في الوجود الامريكي او التركي في سورية وبمجرد تحرك الجبهات واسترداد قطاعات الانتاج التي تسيطر عليها اميريكا ..اما ازمة الليرة التركية فهي حقيقية وعميقة رغم انها غير محاصرة ولاتوجد قطاعات انتاج معطلة لان قيمتها التي نفختها منذ سنوات ليس حقيقية وهي كانت تتحرك بقيمة اعلى من رصيدها الذهبي ومن قيمة انتاج السلع التركية .. ولن تعود الليرة الى سابق عهددها .. خاصة ان تركيا ستشهد خضات كثيرة .. والسبب ليس ان الغرب يتأمر على تركيا الاسلامية بل لان الغرب سحب دعمه عن المشروع الاسلامي التركي بكل بساطة بعد ان احترقت اوراقه ..
اردوغان ينزف ببطء .. ولن تنفعه كل الصلوات .. ولن تنفعه كل دعوات المؤمنين .. ولن ينفعه السجود في أياصوفيا .. وكما يقول فلاديمير بوتين لخصومه ساخرا ومهددا بخشونة .. (مهما فعلت المرأة في يوم دخلتها .. فلن تبقى عذراء) .. واردوغان مهما فعل فانه ينطبق عليه مثل بوتين .. عليه وعلى ليرته التي سيدخل بها اليورو والدولار مهما فعلت ومهما سرق لها اردوغان من نفط وقمح وزيتون ومعامل سورية ..


لو تنطق الليرة التركية اليوم لقالت عن اردوغان: انه قاتلي ومغتصبي ..

Russian Jets Bomb another Market for Stolen Syrian Oil, Erdogan Upset

 ARABI SOURI 

Russian fighter jet bombs al Qaeda market for stolen Syrian oil

A Russian airforce bombing targeted another illegal market run by Al Qaeda for stolen Syrian oil near the borders with Turkey, the regime of Erdogan called on the Russians to stop.

A Russian Su-34 bomber is said to target the make-shift oil market at Bab Al Hawa border crossing with a missile that destroyed dozens of oil tankers and shipment lorries at the site, members of Al Qaeda terrorists wearing the ‘White Helmets’ designated uniforms after taking off their suicide vests were seen rushing to the site to try to extinguish the fire, an effort that would take from them several hours.

No casualties were reported from the bombing or the fires, Al Qaeda only reports its killed members after they arrange replacements if the killed were commanders or they would use the propaganda on the rare occasions when its killed members were locals.

Bab Al Hawa border crossing with Turkey is one of the main crossings used by the Turkish intelligence to smuggle weapons and terrorists for Al Qaeda’s assorted factions in northern Syria in exchange for oil machinery and stolen Syrian crude oil stolen from oil fields under the Turkish / Al Qaeda occupation in northern Syria.

The same Turkish intelligence run by the pariah Hakkan Fidan mostly known for his ‘false-flag’ operations one of which was to bomb a tomb of an Ottoman sultan within Syrian borders to justify a Turkish military invasion in the early days of the US-led war of terror on Syria.

Russian and Syrian military units intensified the targeting of these Erdogan family’s side lucrative business in the past couple of months. Despite many warnings to the Turkish madman, Erdogan continues to carry out this illicit business stealing Syrian oil, selling it mostly to Israel, and using the returns to fund his Al Qaeda terrorists in his military adventures around the region.

Some reports put the number of oil tankers sold by the US-sponsored Kurdish SDF terrorists to their supposed to be enemies the Turkish-sponsored Al-Qaeda at 275 oil tankers with an estimated value of 600 million dollars annually, in return, the Kurds buy gas and gasoline (petrol) from a company owned by Erdogan’s son Bilal Erdogan.

SAA Decimates Stolen Syrian Oil Facilities Run by Erdogan and al-Qaeda

https://syrianews.cc/saa-decimates-stolen-syrian-oil-facilities-run-by-erdogan-and-al-qaeda/embed/#?secret=K7Ps0UIZFQ

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Threat to close pro-Kurdish party echoes long tradition in Turkey’s politics.

HDP may be added to long list of left-wing and Islamist parties shut down over the decades by the Turkish state

Supporters of the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP) demonstrate against the party’s closure in front of the Turkish parliament on 8 December 2009 (AFP)

By Alex MacDonald

Published date: 20 March 2021 10:41 UTC

In 1998, the Constitutional Court of Turkey closed down the Welfare Party, at the time the largest in parliament, with chief justice Ahmet Necdet Sezer citing the party’s “actions against the principles of the secular republic”.

The move was condemned internationally, including by Washington, which called on its Nato ally to “enhance democracy” and allow a wider spectrum of political participation.

The party’s leader, Necmettin Erbakan, a stalwart of Turkey’s religious conservatives who had previously held the position of prime minister, said the closure would rebound on its opponents, only spurring on their supporters’ determination.

‘As a political entity we may not be able to survive this onslaught on our party, but definitely as a people, as a movement, we are going to survive’

– Hisyar Ozsoy, HDP

“Whenever they put obstacles in our path, our support only increases,” he said at the time.

Twenty-three years later, his protege Recep Tayyip Erdogan – once the Welfare Party mayor of Istanbul and now president – is facing criticism from the other side of the fence, as his hand-picked chief public prosecutor applies to close down the left-wing, pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democracy Party (HDP).

The Welfare Party and the HDP are far from the only parties shut down by the state in Turkey’s history.

Since the founding of the republic in 1923, the country’s constitutions have always limited political pluralism to one degree or another.

Left-wing parties, Communist ones, those supporting various minority groups, and Islamist movements, have all been subject to closures and bans over the past century. Just since the adoption of the 1982 constitution, almost 20 parties have been forcibly closed.

‘Onslaught on our party’

The indictment being levelled against the HDP this time, however, is somewhat different: it calls not only for the closure of the party but for the banning of 687 political figures associated with it.

Hisyar Ozsoy is an HDP MP in the party’s core base of Diyarbakir, and his name is one of those listed in the indictment to be banned from political office.

He told Middle East Eye that the party’s central board was examining a number of options for the upcoming parliamentary elections – set for 2023, but possibly occurring earlier – should the application to the Constitutional Court be successful.

“It may be another political party, it may be independents, using the list of an already existing party,” he said, via phone.

“These are all options, but they may even try to prevent the HDP from running as a different political party.”

Noting the repeated obstacles that have been thrown in the way of progressive political parties in Turkey in the past, he said that, regardless of what happened, the HDP as a movement would not disappear.

“The HDP is not just some headquarters, some building, some people. We do have a powerful historical tradition of diverse struggles in Turkey,” he said.

“So they may shut down the HDP as a political entity, but the political struggles that we represent are going to stay there and will be impacting Turkish and Kurdish politics in the country.

“As a political entity we may not be able to survive this onslaught on our party, but definitely as a people, as a movement we are going to survive.”

A history of closures

When the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power under Abdullah Gul in 2001 (due to Erdogan still being banned from political office), it pledged that there would be an end to the era of forced party closures, not least because of its own roots in the forcibly closed Welfare Party and the enduring fear it might be subjected to similar treatment.

Mustafa Akyol, a writer and senior fellow at the Cato Institute, said he had once been optimistic about the AKP as a force for ending the authoritarian practices of the Turkish state.

“In its early years in power, Erdogan’s AKP was boldly against all the illiberal and anti-democratic features of the regime of ‘Old Turkey’,” he told MEE.

Demonstrators commemorating the 28 February 1997 ousting of the Welfare Party government in 2013 with posters reading: "We have not forgotten February 28" (AFP)
Demonstrators commemorating the 28 February 1997 ousting of the Welfare Party government in 2013 with posters reading: “We have not forgotten February 28” (AFP)

“But in a mind-boggling turn, once they consolidated power, their ‘New Turkey’ began repeating – in fact, often doubling – all the authoritarian habits of the past.”

The forcible closure of political parties in Turkey has a history dating right back to the early years of the republic.

The Communist Party of Turkey (TKP) was one of the first victims in 1925, despite the crucial role the Bolsheviks had played in helping establish the republic. Semyon Ivanovich Aralov, Soviet ambassador to Turkey, is among those displayed on the victim monument in Istanbul’s Taksim Square.

Until the 21st century, political parties with the word “Communist” in their name were effectively banned in Turkey, though many operated illegally or used alternative monikers.

Further right on the political spectrum, the Liberal Republican Party was founded in August 1930 as an early attempt at multi-party democracy at the insistence of republic founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, but was swiftly closed in November that same year after it drew too many elements opposed to Ataturk’s secular-nationalist reforms.

Unlike later closures, the party was shut down by its founder rather than forcibly closed, but it left the country as a one-party state under the Republican People’s Party (CHP) at the end of the Second World War.

Since that period, the Turkish state has repeatedly banned parties from across the political spectrum: on the one hand, Communists over their internationalism, atheism, anti-capitalism and opposition to US influence in Turkey; on the other hand, Islamists, whose desire for religion-based rule undermined the secular underpinnings of the republic.

Kurdish parties closed

One of Ataturk’s founding principles for the republic was a belief that ethnic and cultural homogeneity would promote stability and peace.

As such, there have long been strict bans on political parties that promote the rights of minorities, which are regularly shut down on the accusation of threatening the territorial integrity of the country.

Parties promoting the interest of Kurds, the country’s largest ethnic minority, have been most regularly subjected to closure, often over accusations of links to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) militant group.

Not even counting illegal or extra-parliamentary groups, the list of pro-Kurdish parties closed since the beginning of multi-party democracy is extensive.

In the past 30 years alone, after the first overtly pro-Kurdish politicians began being elected to parliament, the list includes the People’s Labour Party and the Freedom and Democracy Party (DEP) in 1993, the Democracy Party in 1994, the original People’s Democracy Party in  2003 and the Democratic Society Party (DTP) in 2009.

Many of the same people were involved in each party, which were often just re-constituted versions of each other. Many are also members of the HDP, which was founded in 2012 as an alliance between the Kurdish movement and other left-wing parties.

Layla Zana, later an HDP politician, scandalised the country in 1991 when, after taking her oath to be sworn into parliament (and in spite of attempts to drown her out), spoke the line: “I take this oath for the brotherhood between the Turkish people and the Kurdish people” in Kurdish, which was effectively illegal at the time.

She would later be stripped of her parliamentary immunity after the party she was then a member of, the DEP, was banned, and would spend many years in prison.

Zana, who was an HDP MP between 2011 and 2018, is also named among the 687 politicians to be banned from office in the most recent indictment.

The later banning of the DTP – after the Constitutional Court declared it had become the “focal point of activities against the indivisible unity of the state, the country and the nation” – came the same year as the court ended a similar investigation into the AKP, which declared the party had become “a centre for anti-secular activities” but only cut its state funding, rather than banning it outright.

“Closing down pro-Kurdish parties with implicit ties to the PKK was one such habit of ‘Old Turkey’ that the AKP used to criticize,” said Akyol.

“But first they began purging the elected mayors of the HDP, to replace them with their own loyalists.

“Now they are taking the ultimate step, completing the full circle in going back to the ‘Old Turkey’ – or its new version which now they dominate.

“Every fair political observer knows that closing down a party that gets 10 percent of the national vote will not bring any good to Turkey, but it may help boost the ultra-nationalist coalition that Erdogan has built.”

‘Indivisible integrity’ of Turkey

The application made by Bekir Sahin to the Constitutional Court on Wednesday accuses the HDP of threatening the “indivisible integrity” of Turkey and of having an “active role in providing personnel” to the PKK.

The court now has to make a decision on the indictment, but few believe it will issue a decision that goes against the government’s wishes, though it is also possible the eventual decision could stop short of a full closure.

The EU condemned the move on Thursday.Turkey: Erdogan’s human rights initiative raises eyebrows of beleaguered activistsRead More »

“Closing the second-largest opposition party would violate the rights of millions of voters in Turkey,” EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell and enlargement commissioner Oliver Varhelyi said in a statement, adding that it “undermines the credibility of the Turkish authorities’ stated commitment to reforms”.

In response, the Turkish foreign ministry told those who “dare to meddle in our domestic affairs to respect the judicial process led by independent courts”.

Regardless of the eventual outcome, Ozsoy said, it was just one more incident in the long struggle for pluralism and representation in Turkey.

“[The government] don’t have anything to offer to the Turkish people as a positive agenda, to resolve the economic crisis or other issues,” he said.

“They are cooking the same dish and trying to serve it to people. Whenever there is a crisis or an unstable situation in the country they consolidate their power base by attacking the HDP.

“Even if Erdogan totally wipes out the HDP, the HDP people are not going to vote for him in the presidential elections… if Erdogan shuts down the HDP, he will totally lose the Kurdish vote.”

حرب بايدن مع بوتين.. إردوغان مع من؟….بقلم حسني محلي

حسني محلي

2021-03-20

بانتظار أن يهاتف بايدن إردوغان سوف يتخذ الطرفان الروسي والأميركي كل التدابير والإجراءات لضمان انحياز الرئيس التركي إلى جانبه أو على الأقل البقاء على الحياد.

فاجأ الرئيس التركي الجميع عندما اتخذ (الجمعة) موقفاً متضامناً مع “حليفه الجديد” فلاديمير بوتين في الحرب الكلامية بينه وبين الرئيس الأميركي جو بايدن الذي لم يتصل بإردوغان حتى الآن. فرداً على سؤال يبدو أنه كان معداً مسبقاً قال إردوغان: “في الحقيقة ليس ممكناً القبول بما قاله رئيس دولة ضد رئيس دولة أخرى كروسيا، وليس سهلاً على أحد هضم هذه العبارة التي استخدمها بايدن، وفي رأيي لقد قام بوتين بما يجب القيام به حيث رد على بايدن بشكل ذكي ولائق جداً”.

كلام إردوغان هذا أثار نقاشاً واسعاً في الأوساط السياسية والإعلامية التركية. هناك من أيّد وهناك من شكّك لا سيما أن تصريح إردوغان جاء بعد ساعات قليلة من سماح أنقرة لحاملة الصواريخ الموجهة الأميركية بالمرور عبر مضيق البوسفور باتجاه البحر الأسود الذي يشهد توتراً خطيراً بين روسيا وبين أميركا وحلف الأطلسي الذي يسعى إلى ضم جورجيا وأوكرانيا للحلف الساعي إلى محاصرة موسكو من خلال بناء قواعد بحرية في هاتين الدولتين وفي كل من بلغاريا ورومانيا. 

وجاء حديث السفير الأميركي في أنقرة ديفيد ساترفيلد مع مجموعة من الصحافيين بعد كلام إردوغان بساعتين ليثبت استمرار الموقف الأميركي تجاه أنقرة، حيث لوح ساترفيلد بعقوبات جديدة على تركيا في حال استمرارها بموقفها الحالي في ما يتعلق بصواريخ اس-400 الروسية. 

ورغم أن ساترفيلد لم يتطرق إلى كلام إردوغان في ما يتعلق بالحرب الكلامية بين بايدن وبوتين، إلا أن الأوساط الدبلوماسية في أنقرة تتوقع رداً أميركياً قريباً على كلام إردوغان، ويعرف الجميع أن واشنطن تستعد لحربها معه في مجالات عدة داخلية وخارجية. ويفسر ذلك رد الفعل الأميركي على رفع الحصانة البرلمانية عن أحد اعضاء حزب الشعوب الديمقراطي (الكردي) ومساعي النيابة العامة لحظر نشاط الحزب بشكل نهائي. 

وبانتظار المكالمة الهاتفية التي أعلن بايدن “أنها ستكون في الوقت المناسب” مع بوتين، يبدو واضحاً أن الطرفين الروسي والأميركي يحسبان الكثير من الحسابات لموقف الرئيس إردوغان المحتمل في حال استمرار هذه الأزمة وانعكاساتها على العلاقات الاستراتيجية بين العدوين التقليديين روسيا وأميركا المدعومة من بعض الحلفاء الأوروبيين. 

ومن دون العودة إلى العلاقات التاريخية بين روسيا والدولة العثمانية والتي بدأت قبل خمسمئة سنة تقريباً وتخلل معظمها خلافات وصراعات وحروب، فالجميع يعرف أن علاقات موسكو مع أنقرة دخلت في مسار جديد بعد أن اعتذر إردوغان في حزيران/يونيو 2016 من الرئيس بوتين عن إسقاط الطائرة الروسية في سوريا في 24 تشرين الثاني/ديسمبر 2015. وسمح بوتين بعد ذلك للجيش التركي بدخول جرابلس السورية في 24 آب/أغسطس 2016، أي في ذكرى مرور 500 عام على معركة مرج دابق التي دخل منها السلطان سليم سوريا ثم مصر ليعود منها خليفة على المسلمين. وتطورت العلاقة بعد ذلك بين بوتين وإردوغان لتشمل العديد من مجالات التعاون العسكري والاقتصادي والتجاري والسياحي (6 ملايين روسي زار تركيا عام 2019) بل وحتى المجال النووي، حيث تقوم روسيا ببناء مفاعلات نووية في تركيا بقيمة ثلاثين مليار دولار. ومع جميع حالات المد والجزر التي شهدتها العلاقات بين الطرفين وخاصة في سوريا وأحياناً في ليبيا ومنطقة القوقاز، فقد نجح بوتين في إبقاء إردوغان ضمن “الحلبة الروسية”، وذلك على الرغم من نقاط الخلاف الكثيرة والجدية مع أنقرة في موضوع سوريا وبشكل خاص في إدلب. 

وكان فيه الدعم الذي قدمه باراك أوباما ومن بعده دونالد ترامب والآن جو بايدن إلى وحدات حماية الشعب الكردية السورية الهم الأكبر بالنسبة إلى إردوغان الذي سمح له ترامب ومعه بوتين بإرسال قواته إلى شرق الفرات في 9 تشرين الأول/أكتوبر 2019 لامتصاص غضبه. وكانت هذه الموافقة ومن قبلها موافقة بوتين كافية بالنسبة إلى إردوغان الذي تحول من خلالها إلى عنصر أساسي في المعادلة السورية المعقدة بكل أطرافها الإقليمية والدولية. ويعرقل ذلك التوصل إلى حل نهائي للأزمة السورية إلا برضا أنقرة التي قال عنها إردوغان قبل أيام “إن موقفها منذ بداية الأزمة لم يتغير ولن يتغير”. 

وليس واضحاً كيف سيوازن بوتين بين موقف إردوغان هذا في سوريا وبين المصالح الروسية المتشابكة مع تركيا التي تستورد أكثر من خمسين بالمئة من غازها من روسيا التي باعت أنقرة صواريخ اس-400.

وكانت هذه الصواريخ وما زالت سبباً كافياً للتوتر بين تركيا والحليف الاستراتيجي التقليدي واشنطن التي لها 12 قاعدة في تركيا وأهمها أنجيرليك التي تضم حوالى 50 قنبلة نووية. 

وبانتظار أن يهاتف بايدن إردوغان، وهي مكالمة يعرف الجميع أن إردوغان ينتظرها بفارغ الصبر، سوف يتخذ كل من الطرفين الروسي والأميركي كل التدابير والإجراءات لضمان انحياز إردوغان إلى جانبه أو على الأقل البقاء على الحياد، وهو أمر شبه مستحيل بسبب الموقع الجغرافي الاستراتيجي لتركيا ومن ثم تداخل السياسات التركية في العديد من مناطق العالم مع سياسات العدوين المذكورين. فقد مثّلت تركيا بعد نهاية الحرب العالمية الثانية خندقاً أمامياً للدفاع عن “العالم الديمقراطي المتحضر” ضد خطر الاتحاد السوفياتي الشيوعي، ولولا مؤسسه لينين لما استطاع مصطفى كمال أتاتورك أن ينتصر على دول العالم المذكور، أي فرنسا وبريطانيا وإيطاليا واليونان، ويؤسس جمهوريته المستقلة في 29 تشرين الأول/أكتوبر 1923. وبقيت تركيا ثابتة في خندقها لمنع السوفيات والشيوعية من النزول إلى المياه الدافئة في المنطقة العربية الإسلامية، وتحالفت معها أنظمة الخليج المعروفة التي تآمرت دائماً، وما زالت تتآمر، على المد الوطني والقومي العربي، كما هو الحال في ما يسمى بالربيع العربي. 

وجاء سقوط الاتحاد السوفياتي بداية التسعينات من القرن الماضي ليدفع أنقرة وبتشجيع من واشنطن إلى الحديث عن المد القومي التركي من البوسنة وحتى حدود الصين مروراً بالجمهوريات الإسلامية ذات الأصل التركي في القوقاز وآسيا الوسطى. 

ولم تغير مجمل التطورات التي شهدها العالم خلال الأعوام الثلاثين الماضية من أحلام إردوغان وهو سائر على طريق الرئيس الراحل تورغوت أوزال الذي رفع شعار “أمة تركية واحدة من الأدرياتيكي إلى حدود الصين”، وسعى بعد حرب الكويت 1991 لضم الشمال العراقي إلى تركيا، الأمر الذي فكر به الرئيس  إردوغان أكثر من مرة غداة أحداث ما يسمى بالربيع العربي عندما تحدث عن حدود الميثاق الوطني الذي يضم الشمال السوري مع ولاية الموصل، التي تعني في العرف التركي الموصل وأربيل والسليمانية وكركوك.

في جميع الحالات وحتى وإن كانت احتمالات المواجهة الساخنة بين واشنطن وموسكو ضعيفة، فالجميع يعرف أن بايدن لن يبحث بعد الآن عن حلول وسط في علاقته مع إردوغان، ولكنه في نفس الوقت لن يضحي بتركيا بسهولة. فالرئيس بايدن معروف بمواقفه السلبية تجاه إردوغان على صعيد السياستين الداخلية والخارجية، كما معروف عنه أنه لا يملك الشجاعة الكافية للاستمرار في مواقفه هذه. فبعد أن اتهم في تشرين الأول/أكتوبر 2014 كلاً من تركيا ومعها السعودية والإمارات بدعم التنظيمات الإرهابية في سوريا ومنها داعش والنصرة، زار بايدن بصفته نائب الرئيس أوباما اسطنبول واعتذر من إردوغان بعد أن زاره في منزله وتمنى له الشفاء العاجل بعد عملية جراحية خضع لها في الأمعاء. 

والسؤال هو: هل وكيف سيرد بايدن على تضامن إردوغان مع الرئيس بوتين ضده؟ في حين أن بوتين لن يتأخر في البحث عن مجالات جديدة للتعاون مع إردوغان وتقديم تنازلات جديدة له في سوريا وكاراباخ وليبيا وأماكن أخرى لمنع واشنطن من اختراق تحالفه مع أنقرة.

ولن يبقى أمام بايدن في هذه الحالة إلا خيارين فقط لا ثالث لهما:

الأول: استخدام القوة السياسية والاقتصادية والتجارية بل وحتى العسكرية للتخلص من إردوغان من خلال تضييق الحصار عليه خارجياً (دعم كرد سوريا) في ظل استمرار أزماته الداخلية الخطيرة. 

الثاني: الاتصال بإردوغان بأقرب فرصة لكسب وده وتلبية كل شروطه ومطالبه للعودة إلى التحالف التقليدي بين تركيا وأميركا وفيها العديد من القوى التي تطالب بايدن بمحاسبة إردوغان على خلفية أقواله وأفعاله التي باتت تهدد المصالح الأميركية “ومفاهيم الحضارة الغربية الديمقراطية”. 

وفي كلتا الحالتين سيكتشف الجميع كيف سيواجه إردوغان الاحتمالات القادمة وإذا ما كان سيعالجها بنجاح يضمن بقائه في السلطة وربما إلى الأبد، أو أنه سيجد نفسه في دوامة التجاذبات الصعبة بين حليفه التقليدي أميركا والحليف الجديد روسيا، من دون أن يتجاهل “صداقة” بكين (عدو بايدن الحقيقي)، ولولاها لما تم تطعيم الشعب التركي ضد كورونا!

المصدر: الميادين نت

بعد أستانة وسوتشي.. لماذا الدوحة؟

حسني محلي

حسني محلي

المصدر: الميادين نت

13 آذار 19:27

السؤال يتمحور حول السبب الذي دفع موسكو إلى أن تسلك هذا الطريق وتتفق مع الدوحة وأنقرة على آلية جديدة قد تتناقض مستقبلاً مع مساري أستانة وسوتشي، فيما تستبعد الآلية الجديدة طهران، اللاعب الأهم في سوريا.

التقى سيرغي لافروف في الدوحة نظيريه القطري محمد عبدالرحمن آل ثاني، والتركي مولود جاويش أوغلو.
التقى سيرغي لافروف في الدوحة نظيريه القطري محمد عبدالرحمن آل ثاني، والتركي مولود جاويش أوغلو.

بعد أربع سنوات من مباحثات أستانة التي انطلقت في كانون الثاني/يناير 2017 وبعد مضي ثلاثين شهراً على اتفاق سوتشي في أيلول/سبتمبر وجدت موسكو نفسها مضطرة للبحث عن آلية جديدة تساعدها على معالجة ما فشلت في تحقيقه خلال السنوات الماضية. 

خلال جولة وزير الخارجية الروسي الخليجية الأخيرة، والتي شملت أبو ظبي والرياض اللتين أطلقتا تصريحات “إيجابية” حول سوريا، التقى سيرغي لافروف في الدوحة نظيريه القطري محمد عبدالرحمن آل ثاني، والتركي مولود جاويش أوغلو. الوزيران أكدا في مؤتمر صحافي مشترك “على ضرورة الحل السياسي في سوريا”، الأمر الذي سمعناه من كل الأطراف أكثر من مرة خلال السنوات العشر الماضية من تاريخ هذه الأزمة، وكانت قطر وتركيا لاعبان أساسيان فيها. هذا ما اعترف به رئيس الوزراء القطري السابق حمد بن جاسم في 27 تشرين الأول/أكتوبر عام 2017 عندما تحدث إلى التلفزيون القطري قائلاً إن الدوحة “أمسكت بملف الأزمة السورية بتفويض رسمي من السعودية وإن الدعم العسكري الذي قدمته بلاده للجماعات المسلحة كان يذهب إلى تركيا بالتنسيق مع الولايات المتحدة وإن كل شيء أُرسل إلى سوريا كان يتم توزيعه عن طريق القوات الأميركية إضافة إلى الأتراك والسعوديين”.

كما كان حمد بن جاسم اللاعب الأساسي في القرار الذي اتخذته الجامعة العربية في 12 تشرين الثاني/نوفمبر عام 2011 والمتعلق بتعليق عضوية سوريا في الجامعة، وحضر الاجتماع آنذاك وزير الخارجية التركي أحمد دَاوُد أوغلو.

الوزير القطري عبدالرحمن آل ثاني لم ينس الخميس الماضي التذكير بهذا الموضوع حينما قال “إن أسباب تعليق عضوية سوريا في الجامعة العربية ما زالت قائمة”، في إشارة منه إلى استمرار التنسيق والتعاون مع تركيا في سوريا كما كان عليه الأمر منذ البداية. وكان الأمير القطري حمد آل ثاني الزعيم العربي الوحيد الذي شارك في حفل إعلان دمشق عاصمة الثقافة العربية في 19 كانون الثاني/يناير 2008 وجلس إلى جانبه الرئيس التركي آنذاك عبدالله غول، الزعيم الأوروبي الوحيد الذي حضر الحفل متجاهلاً تهديدات الرئيس الأميركي السابق جورج بوش.

بعد استلام حزب العدالة والتنمية السلطة في تركيا نهاية 2002، انتهجت تركيا وقطر منذ بداية العلاقات التركية مع دمشق نهجاً مشتركاً، بل واحداً، في ما يتعلق بكل الأمور الخاصة بسوريا قبل الأزمة السورية وبعدها، ولولا هاتان الدولتان لما وصلت الأزمة السورية إلى ما وصلت إليه الآن بكل تعقيداتها. 

يفسر ذلك القمة الرباعية التي شارك فيها رجب طيب إردوغان وأمير قطر حمد آل ثاني والرئيس الفرنسي السابق نيكولا ساركوزي في دمشق مع الرئيس بشار الأسد في أيلول/سبتمبر 2009، حيث اقترحت الدول الثلاث على الرئيس الأسد نقل الغاز القطري والخليجي إلى تركيا عبر الأراضي السورية لكسر الاحتكار الروسي والإيراني، وهو ما رفضه الأسد آنذاك. واعتبر البعض هذا الرفض من أهم الأسباب التي كانت وراء الحماس التركي- القطري- الفرنسي في الأزمة السورية منذ بدايتها. 

ولم يمنع انقلاب عبدالفتاح السيسي في تموز/يونيو 2013 ضد جماعة الإخوان المسلمين في مصر الرئيس إردوغان وحليفه القطري الشاب الأمير تميم (استلم السلطة قبل انقلاب السيسي بأسبوع واحد فقط!) من الاستمرار في سياساتهما المعروفة في سوريا وتقديم الدعم المطلق والشامل لكل الفصائل الإسلامية، وهو ما اعترف به حمد بن جاسم. 

ويفسر ذلك أيضاً الدور الذي لعبته قطر مع تركيا خلال القمة العربية التي انعقدت في الدوحة في 27 آذار/مارس 2013 حيث جلس أحمد معاذ الخطيب الرئيس المستقيل لما يسمى بـ”الائتلاف السوري لقوى الثورة والمعارضة السورية” في المقعد المخصص للرئيس الأسد. 

وسبق ذلك، الدور الذي لعبته قطر وتركيا معاً خلال اجتماع الدوحة بتاريخ 11 تشرين الثاني/نوفمبر 2012، في إقناع الفصائل المسلحة وأطرافها السياسية لتوحيد صفوفها في كيان جديد سمي بـ”الائتلاف الوطني لقوى الثورة والمعارضة السورية” وترأسه أحمد معاذ الخطيب المقرب من إردوغان. كما لعبت أنقرة والدوحة دوراً أساسياً في إقناع خالد مشعل بإغلاق مكاتب ومخيمات حماس في سوريا والقتال ضد الدولة السورية التي لولاها لما كانت حماس موجودة أساساً.  

هذا عن ذكريات الماضي التي على ما يبدو لم تنساها أنقرة والدوحة، وهو ما أكد عليه الوزيران جاويش أوغلو وآل ثاني عندما تحدثا عن استمرار موقفهما المعروف في ما يتعلق بالوضع الراهن للأزمة السورية وآفاق الحل المحتمل لهده الأزمة، وهما السبب في تأخر هذا الحل. هذا ما أكدت عليه موسكو أكثر من مرة وعلى لسان الرئيس الروسي فلاديمير بوتين ووزير خارجيته وكلاهما فشل في إقناع إردوغان بضرورة وقف الدعم للفصائل السورية المختلفة بما فيها جبهة النصرة في إدلب. 

وقد رفض إردوغان، وما زال يرفض، أي تدخل سوري وروسي في إدلب على الرغم من تعهداته للرئيس بوتين في اتفاق سوتشي وبعد ذلك في اتفاق موسكو بتاريخ 5 آذار/مارس العام الماضي بالتخلص من جبهة النصرة. وكان هذا الرفض التركي المدعوم من الدوحة سبباً كافياً لتأزم الوضع في الشمال السوري، غرب الفرات وشرقه، وهو ما دفع أنقرة إلى إرسال ما لا يقل عن 10 آلاف مقاتل من قواتها إلى الشمال السوري بكامل معداتهم القتالية براً وجواً. ترافق ذلك مع استمرار تمويل أنقرة ودعمها مع الدوحة لما يسمى بـ”الجيش الوطني السوري” المعارض الذي يقاتل ضد الدولة السورية، رغم تأكيد لقاء الدوحة الأخير “على سيادتها المطلقة على كامل ترابها”. 

ويعرف الجميع بِما فيهم الرئيس بوتين أن هذا التأكيد كان وسيبقى حبراً على ورق مع استمرار الموقف التركي والقطري الذي كان مبرراً للوجود العسكري الأميركي في شرق الفرات. وهذا الوجود يمثل الخطر الأكبر الذي يهدد استقلال وسيادة ووحدة سوريا أرضاً وشعباً ودولة، ومن دون أن تفكر أنقرة في تحقيق أي خطوة عملية من أجل مواجهة هذا الخطر الذي يهددها ربما أكثر من سوريا، باعتبار أن وحدات حماية الشعب الكردية السورية تشكل امتداداً لحزب العمال الكردستاني التركي.

أما عن الواقع الحالي فالسؤال يتمحور حول السبب الذي دفع موسكو إلى أن تسلك هذا الطريق وتتفق مع الدوحة وأنقرة على آلية جديدة قد تتناقض مستقبلاً مع مساري أستانة وسوتشي، فيما تستبعد الآلية الجديدة  طهران (اللاعب الأهم في سوريا) على الرغم من تضامنها مع الدوحة خلال أزمتها مع دول الخليج في حزيران/يوليو 2017.

والسؤال الآخر هو: لماذا تجاهلت موسكو إيران؟ حتى لو كان ذلك بناء على طلب من تركيا وقطر وهي تعرف جيداً أن هاتين الدولتين لا ولن تساهما في الحل النهائي للأزمة السورية إلا وفق حسابات إردوغان العقائدية، حتى لو تخلى عن ورقة الإخوان المسلمين تكتيكياً خلال مصالحته مع عدوه اللدود الرئيس عبدالفتاح السيسي. ويبدو أن الأخير ليس متحمساً حتى الآن لمثل هذه المصالحة التي قال عنها بيان الخارجية المصرية إنها “يجب أن تراعي الأطر القانونية والدبلوماسية التي تحكم العلاقات بين الدول على أساس احترام مبدأ السيادة ومقتضيات الأمن القومي العربي، كما على أنقرة أن تلتزم بقواعد القانون الدولي ومبادئ حسن الجوار وأن تكف عن محاولات التدخل في الشؤون الداخلية لدول المنطقة”.

والسؤال الثالث: ماذا ستفعل الرياض وأبو ظبي حيال هذا التحرك التركي- القطري التقليدي مع استمرار التواجد العسكري التركي  في قطر جنباً إلى جنب مع القواعد الأميركية الاستراتيجية؟ يبقى السؤال مطروحاً حتى بعد المصالحة السعودية- القطرية- الإماراتية “والتضامن” التركي مع الرياض ضد جماعة “أنصار الله” الحوثية.

وأياً كانت حسابات إردوغان، وشريكه الصغير الأمير تميم، عربياً وإقليمياً ودولياً، يبدو واضحاً أن هذه الحسابات وفق المعطيات السابقة قد تكون لمواجهة “الدور الإيراني المحتمل في المنطقة” بعد الاتفاق النووي مع واشنطن والعواصم الغربية.

وليس واضحاً إن كانت موسكو التي سمحت للجيش التركي بدخول سوريا في آب/أغسطس 2016 ستواجه مثل هذا الاحتمال إن وجد وكيف؟ وهل هي مستعدة لإغلاق ملفي أستانة وسوتشي على حساب إيران وسوريا؟ أم أن كل ما نراه الآن لا يندرج إلا في إطار التحرك الروسي المصلحي لمواجهة الحملة أو الحملات الأميركية المتوقعة في المنطقة؟ هذا إذا تجاهلنا احتمالات التنسيق الروسي- الأميركي في كل هذه السيناريوهات. 

ويعرف الجميع أن الرئيس إردوغان ما زال ينتظر مكالمة الرئيس الأميركي جو بايدن من دون أن يفكر بالمبادرة إلى أي خطوة عملية على طريق المصالحة مع الرئيس الأسد، على غرار ما سيفعله مع الرئيس السيسي، ليطوي بذلك راية الخلافة التي عاد بها السلطان سليم من القاهرة في 11 كانون الثاني/يناير 1517. كما سيجد نفسه مضطراً إلى نسيان كل ما قاله خلال الفترة الماضية بحق العاهل السعودي ونجله ولي العهد ورئيس الإمارات، بل وحتى رئيس الوزراء الإسرائيلي بنيامين نتنياهو. 

فالمصالحة مع الأسد ستعني بالنسبة لإردوغان العودة إلى ما قبل عام 2011 والقبول بالهزيمة وطي صفحة الخلافة والسلطنة العثمانية إقليمياً ودولياً، وهو ما يعني التخلي عن النهج العقائدي الإخواني المدعوم من دون أي مبرر منطقي من “الدولة الصغيرة” قطر.

خلاصة الكلام أن مصالحة إردوغان مع كل هذه الأطراف سيحتاج إلى أكثر من معجزة لأن ذلك سيعني أن يعود إردوغان “ديمقراطياً وعلمانياً” ويتخلى عن كل المكاسب الشخصية التي حققها بعد أن سيطر على جميع مؤسسات ومرافق وأجهزة الدولة التركية، ليساعده ذلك في تحقيق هدفه الأكبر وهو أسلمة الدولة والأمة التركيين مع ضمان حكمه إلى الأبد.

ويرى الكثيرون ممن يعرفون شخصية إردوغان أن مثل هذا الاحتمال من المستحيلات السبعة، هذا بالطبع إن لم يكن كل ما رأيناه كابوساً دفع ثمنه الشعب السوري غالياً بدمائه ودمار بلاده إشباعاً لغرائز الآخرين من الإخوة والأشقاء والأصدقاء، والرئيس بوتين يعرفهم جميعاً أكثر من الآخرين!

فيديوات ذات صلة

مقالات ذات صلة

Khashoggi Murder: “He Knew Too Many Saudi Secrets on 9/11 Massacre”. US Intelligence Accused MBS but Forgot Motive

Washington Post journalist might be killed for his “invaluable inside information” after a meeting with an investigator of World Trade Center victims’ families

By Fabio Giuseppe Carlo Carisio -March 11, 2021

by Fabio Giuseppe Carlo Carisio 

Versione originale in Italiano

At the moment of his lightning-fast appointment the day after the inauguration of American President Joseph Biden in the White House, the Director of US National Intelligence, Avril Haines had announced the imminent declassification of the dossier on the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Those anxiously awaiting this moment were a little disappointed because the report revealed by the ODNI (Office Director of National Intelligence), the command station for all intelligence agencies from the CIA to the NSA of the Pentagon, did nothing but reiterate – with the fragile official nature of a correspondence by a partisan intelligence – what is already partly known to all the media in relation to the alleged role of “instigator” of the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in the brutal killing of the famous Arab commentator of the Washington Post.

Khashoggi, a distant relative of the royal family, disappeared in October 2018 after entering the Saudi Consulate General in Istanbul. Riyadh initially denied knowing of his fate but later admitted that the journalist had been brutally murdered inside the diplomatic office, denying any involvement of members of the royal family in the murder that he called a “rogue operation. “.

Washington Post columnist Jamal Kashoggi murdered in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul

In fact, the journalist had entered the Consulate of his country in Istanbul on the morning of 2 October 2018 to obtain the documents to marry his Turkish girlfriend, Hatice Cengiz, who had remained outside waiting for him in vain. He was in fact killed and his body torn to pieces to make all traces disappear.

«We assess that Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman approved an operation in Istanbul, Turkey to capture or kill Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi – read on Intelligence paper – We base this assessment on the Crown Prince’s control of decisionmaking in the Kingdom since 2017, the direct involvement of a key adviser and members of Muhammad bin Salman’s protective detail in the operation, and the Crown Prince’s support for using violent measures to silence dissidents abroad, including Khashoggi. Since 2017, the Crown Prince has had absolute control of the Kingdom’s security and intelligence organizations, making it highly unlikely that Saudi officials would have carried out an operation of this nature without the Crown Prince’s authorization».

Almost three years later, in which those responsible were sentenced by the judges of the Saudi Kingdom first to death and then “pardoned” with enormous reductions in sentences, the documents declassified by the ODNI director, Avril Haines, former CIA deputy director in the administration Obama then became one of the suspected prophetesses of the Covid-19 pandemic together with Bill Gates by participating in the famous Event 201 exercise in October 2019 financed by the Microsoft Tycoon Foundation, they add few certain details and therefore assume the importance of a political move instead that of a contribution to international justice invoked by the UN and the victim’s girlfriend.

THE ROLE OF THE ROYAL GUARD RAPID INTERVENTION FORCE

«At the time of the Khashoggi murder, the Crown Prince probably fostered an environment in which aides were afraid that failure to complete assigned tasks might result in him firing or arresting them. This suggests that the aides were unlikely to question Muhammad bin Salman’s orders or undertake sensitive actions without his consent» adds the US intelligence report which navigates the sphere of assumptions before revealing any circumstantial elements.

«The IS-member Saudi team that arrived in Istanbul on 2 October 2018 included officials who worked for, or were associated with, the Saudi Center for Studies and Media Affairs (CSMARC) at the Royal Court. At the time of the operation, CSMARC was led by Saud al-Qahtani, a close adviser of Muhammad bin Salman, who claimed publicly in mid-2018 that he did not make decisions without the Crown Prince’s approval» the ODNI document reports.

«The team also included seven members of Muhammad bin Salman’s elite personal protective detail, known as the Rapid Intervention Force (RIF). The RIF-a subset of the Saudi Royal Guard-exists to defend the Crown Prince, answers only to him, and had directly participated in earlier dissident suppression operations in the Kingdom and abroad at the Crown Prince’s direction. We judge that members of the RIF would not have participated in the operation against Khashoggi without Muhammad bin Salman’s approval».

The document desecreated by US intelligence on Khasoggi’s assassination – click on image for pdf

The document concludes with a list of Saudis who would have had a role in this “pre-planned” action but it is not known “how far in advance” adds the office headed by Avril Haines before exposing another fundamental random element «We have high confidence that the following individuals participated in, ordered, or were otherwise complicit in or responsible for the death of Jamal Khashoggi on behalf of Muhammad bin Salman. We do not know whether these individuals knew in advance that the operation would result in Khashoggi’s death».

NO SANCTIONS FOR THE CROWN PRINCE

The information gathered by the “NIO (National Intelligence Officer) for Near East” and by the powerful counter-espionage of the Central Intelligence Agency, however, did not know – or wanted – to reveal the probable motive for the murder, at the time hypothesized by two interesting journalistic investigations that did not they were highly regarded by the US secret services because they risked reopening a sore wound.

Both the Australian Herald Sun and the American Florida Bulldog, in fact, highlighted too many things Kashoggi knew about the role of the Saudis in the 9/11 attacks as the probable cause of the crime.

Before seeing why this track is at least likely and supported by significant clues, let’s analyze the immediate consequences of the ODNI dossier. The document expresses “a high conviction” about the responsibilities of the individuals involved in the journalist’s death.

US President Joe Biden on Friday said that “significant changes” to policies between the US and Saudi Arabia will be announced as early as Monday. “I spoke to the king yesterday, not the prince. I made it clear to him that the rules are changing and that we will announce significant changes,” Biden told Univision in an interview. “We will hold them accountable for human rights violations and make sure that […] if they want to deal with us, they will have to deal with it in a way that deals with human rights violations.”

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman

In practice, however, Saudi prince Mohamed bin Salman will not be hit by US sanctions. Politico reports this, citing sources from the US administration. The US Treasury is preparing to impose sanctions on Saudi general Ahmed al-Asiri, former deputy head of the intelligence services in Riyadh, for the Khashoggi assassination. Sanctions also for the Saudi Rapid Intervention Force involved in the murder.

The US State Department launches the so-called ‘Khashoggi policy’ or ‘Khashoggi ban’ to punish all people who, acting in the name of a government, are thought to have directly participated or participate in activities against “serious and extraterritorial” dissidents . The Bloomberg agency reports. The US administration has already identified 76 people who could be sanctioned with the withdrawal or restriction of visas.

“The government of the kingdom of Saudi Arabia completely rejects the negative, false and unacceptable assessment contained in the report concerning the kingdom’s leadership, and notes that the report contained inaccurate information and conclusions,” the Saudi Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

Arab League Secretary General Ahmed Aboul Gheit “expressed his support for the statement by the Saudi Foreign Ministry refuting the conclusions of the US intelligence report, underlining that the latter is not a judicial or international body and that the related to human rights should not be politicized ”.

STOP OF AMERICAN WEAPONS FOR SAUDI ARABIA

In just a month since his inauguration, this is the second time that President Biden has targeted the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Previously it had in fact suspended the sale of arms to Riyadh and Abu Dhabi (UAE capital) in relation to the embargo on Yemen, often violated by suppliers such as the American war coropration Raytheon through subcontracts such as the one to the German Rehinmetall which used the branch factory. Italian (in Sardinia) to honor supplies with various escamtoge recently blocked by the government of Rome right after the Biden provision.

However, it should be remembered that the “Abrahamic Agreements” on the normalization of relations between the Persian Gulf countries with Israel will allow Tel Aviv to become an intermediary in the arms business.

Israeli ministers approved $ 9 billion worth of arms purchases with the United States on Sunday, the New Arab reported. The sizeable deal includes the purchase of Chinook helicopters, F-35 warplanes and aerial refueling tankers, as well as a large amount of bombs and ammunition, ”Middle East Monitor wrote on 14 February.

A few days later Biden tweeted: “I spoke today with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and affirmed the firm commitment of the United States to the security of our ally Israel. Our teams are in constant contact to strengthen US-Israel strategic cooperation on all regional security issues, including Iran”. About a week later the POTUS (President of the United States) ordered the US Air Force F-35s to bomb Iranian militias in Syria that have been haunted by Israeli Defense Forces missiles for years.

It should also not be forgotten that Raytheon had an exceptional American consultant until a few weeks ago: General Lloyd Austin, former commander of various missions in the Middle East who discharged from the US army in 2016, appointed by Biden.

CIA TOP SECRET FILE: THE US WAR IN SYRIA PLANNED SINCE 1983

And it is important to remember that during the previous administration of President Barack Obama (of which Biden himself was deputy) the Pentagon and the CIA Mom project supplied Raytheon missiles to the Syrian jihadist factions, with the excuse that they were rebels against the Bashar Al Assad regime. in the attempt of regime change planned by the Central Intelligence Agency itself since his father Haziz ruled in 1983, as confirmed by a document declassified by the USA and published exclusively by Gospa News.

As revealed by the SETA dossier, another study unveiled in Europe by our web media, 21 groups suspected of being linked to Islamic terrorism were in fact given supplies of the deadly BGM-71 TOW anti-tank rockets (Tube-launched, Optically tracked, Wire-guided – launched from a tube, optically tracked, remote guided), designed by Hughes Aircraft in the 1960s, but currently manufactured by Raytheon.

It is therefore reasonable to assume that the precious sale of American bombs to Saudi Arabia will be able to continue through other channels: not only Israel but also the United Kingdom, already protagonist of a colossal business in the Arms Lobby with the Muslim Brotherhood, as we will see in others. reportage.

This is why the truth is always hidden behind a veil of diplomatic hypocrisy as in the case of the murder of the Muslim journalist of the Washington Post.

THE JOURNALIST OF THE MUSLIM BROTHERS

When I was looking for updated information on the September 11 2001 massacre to write a synthetic report aimed at highlighting the international complicity behind the attacks attributed to Al Qaeda, I came across some precious articles that correlated the attack on the Twin World Trade Center Towers with the killing of Jamal Khashoggi.

The question is so complex and obscured by misdirections that I do not claim to spread absolute certainties. But the reportages to which I will refer confirm each other and the reliability of one of them is indirectly confirmed by the authoritativeness of a journalist who made various scoops by interviewing some of the American senators who supported not only the thesis of an international intrigue behind the massacre plot but they blamed Saudi Arabia without any hesitation.

In the Australian newspaper Herald Sun, investigative reporter Andrew Bolt already on October 16, 2018 analyzed the complex figure of Kashoggi, suspected of being an Arab secret agent, before becoming a champion of human rights as a columnist for the Washington Post of Jeff Bezos, founder and owner of Amazon but also an exemplary figure of that financial Deep State transversal to Republicans and Democrats, supported by international Freemasonry and military intelligence.

AL BAGHDADI: ISIS CALIPH AND MOSSAD-CIA AGENT HIDDEN BY US

«In truth, Khashoggi never had much time for western-style pluralistic democracy. In the 1970s he joined the Muslim Brotherhood, which exists to rid the Islamic world of western influence. He was a political Islamist until the end, recently praising the Muslim Brotherhood in the Washington Post» Bolt adds perhaps forgetting those who argue that this Islamic political-religious organization would have been created by Western Freemasonry to more effectively control the Middle East through the historical allies of Turkey and Qatar where in fact the Muslim Brotherhood are more influential as highlighted in the reportage Weapons Lobby 4.

Herald Sun then recalls the murdered reporter’s connection with «Yasin Aktay — a former MP for Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development party (AKP) — whom Khashoggi told his fiancée to call if he did not emerge from the consulate. The AKP is, in effect, the Turkish branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. His most trusted friend, then, was an adviser to President Erdogan, who is fast becoming known as the most vicious persecutor of journalists on earth. Khashoggi never meaningfully criticised Erdogan. So we ought not to see this as the assassination of a liberal reformer».

Heavy words especially because they refer to a man killed and then dismembered to hide his remains. But which are in perfect harmony with the theory reported in a serial dossier by Irina Tsukerman, a lawyer specializing in human rights and national security in New York, an analyst on geopolitics and on US foreign policy on American and Israeli publications such as Begin- Sadat Center for Strategic Studies (Besa).

«In the wake of Qassem Soleimani’s killing by the US, Iran’s significant role in 9/11 briefly gained currency. What remains completely obscured, however, are the Saudi Islamists hiding in plain sight, who are trading on their past associations with Western intelligence to pursue the same agenda they had pre-9/11. Saudi Islamists have both an ideological and a financial interest in seeing the kingdom’s modernizing Vision2030 fail».

The lawyer wrote on the Israeli website specializing in military intelligence and therefore exposing himself to the risk of having some connection with the Mossad, the notorious counterintelligence of Tel Aviv, suspected of having had an occult direction both in the training of ISIS leader Al Baghdadi as in the attacks of 11 September 2001 as repeatedly reported by Veterans Today, an information portal managed by the former CIA officer, Gordon Duff, and by Gospa News in our previous investigation.

Precisely for this reason we must first verify and carefully analyze the correlations on the World Trade Center massacre mentioned by Tsukerman who, by calling into question the Iranian Shiite Muslim confession, sworn enemy of the radical Sunni-Salafis such as the Muslim Brotherhood and the Saudi Wahhabis, already smell of obvious and gigantic misdirection. To confirm the bias of Tsukerman’s dossier, his three reports are no longer traceable on Besa (but we have screenshots).

KHASHOGGI, FRIEND OF BIN LADEN AND SPY IN RIYADH AND LONDON

But one sentence is instead interesting because it is linked to the Australian article: «Much of what everyone thinks they know about the reform efforts of King Salman and Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (MBS) is actually disinformation produced by these “dissidents.” They include former Saudi intel and Muslim Brotherhood members like Jamal Khashoggi, who wanted Saudi Arabia to become more, not less, like the Islamic state envisioned by Khashoggi’s friend Osama bin Laden».

Let’s close this Israeli parenthesis and return to the Herald Sun which continues the analysis: «Khashoggi and his fellow travellers believe in imposing Islamic rule by engaging in the democratic process… This matters because, although bin Salman has rejected Wahhabism — to the delight of the West — he continues to view the Muslim Brotherhood as the main threat most likely to derail his vision for a new Saudi Arabia. Most of the Islamic clerics in Saudi Arabia who have been imprisoned over the past two years — Khashoggi’s friends — have historic ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. Khashoggi had therefore emerged as a de facto leader of the Saudi branch. Due to his profile and influence, he was the biggest political threat to bin Salman’s rule outside of the royal family».

Al Qaeda founder Osama Bin Laden

«He had befriended Osama bin Laden in the 1980s and 1990s in Afghanistan and Sudan while championing his jihad against the Soviets in dispatches. At that same time, he was employed by the Saudi intelligence services to try to persuade bin Laden to make peace with the Saudi royal family. The result? Khashoggi was the only non-royal Saudi who had the beef on the royals’ intimate dealing with al Qaeda in the lead-up to the 9/11 attacks. That would have been crucial if he had escalated his campaign to undermine the crown prince» .

«Like the Saudi royals, Khashoggi dissociated himself from bin Laden after 9/11 (which Khashoggi and I watched unfold together in the Arab News office in Jeddah). But he then teamed up as an adviser to the Saudi ambassador to London and then Washington, Prince Turki Al Faisal» adds Andrew Bolt.

Finally, the Australian journalist recalls that «The latter had been Saudi intelligence chief from 1977 until just ten days before the 9/11 attacks, when he inexplicably resigned. Once again, by working alongside Prince Turki during the latter’s ambassadorial stints, as he had while reporting on bin Laden, Khashoggi mixed with British, US and Saudi intelligence officials. In short, he was uniquely able to acquire invaluable inside information».

ELIMINATED THE WHISTLEBLOWER ON 11 SEPTEMBER

Following the thesis of the Australian reporter who demonstrates that he knew the murdered colleague well, one therefore wonders what he wanted to do with that privileged information … Let’s try to respond with an analysis of human psychology first and then a journalistic investigation. As it turns out, Jamal had really fallen in love with his Turkish girlfriend, Hatice Cengiz, so much so that he was willing to challenge the dangers of which he was well aware in order to go to the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul to collect the documents necessary for the marriage.

It is therefore evident that in order to guarantee a peaceful future for himself and above all for his wife, he may have first made some attempts to mediate a sort of “immunity” from Riyadh and then instead tried to free his conscience about 9/11 by making the secrets public. in his possession in order to frustrate a possible attack against himself.

If I venture into this logical speculation it is only because I have carefully read the article published in the Florida Bulldog by the American investigative journalist Dan Christensen, who became famous for his interviews on the international conspiracy behind the attacks on the Twin Towers in New York.

The attacks resulted in the deaths of 2,996 people (including all 19 hijackers) and the injury of over 6,000 others. The death toll also included 265 on the four hijacked planes (of which there were no survivors), 2,606 in the World Trade Center and surrounding area, and 125 in the Pentagon.

«““Khashoggi was killed not because he was a dissident, but because of his contact with us,” said James Kreindler, a prominent New York attorney who represents thousands of 9/11 family members and survivors who are suing Saudi Arabia. A month after Saudi-born Khashoggi was allegedly killed and dismembered by a Saudi hit team on Oct. 2, 2018, the U.S. intelligence community disclosed intercepts of communications with Khashoggi’s phone to others. One exchange was with Khalid bin Salman, Crown Prince Mohammed’s younger brother who was then serving as the Saudi ambassador to the US» reported Florida Bulldog.

The Washington Post reported on the alleged conversation between KBS telling Kashoggi to go and collect documents at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul for his planned wedding assuring him that “it would be safe to do so.” The revelation was part of the CIA dossier that today accuses Mohamed Bin Salman but a few hours later the Saudi ambassador denied the call.

“As we told the Washington Post the last contact I had with Mr. Khashoggi was via text on Oct 26 2017. I never talked to him by phone and certainly never suggested he go to Turkey for any reason. I ask the government to release any information regarding this claim,” Khalid wrote on Twitter on Nov. 16, 2018” Khalid wrote on Twitter on Nov. 16, 2018.

MYSTERIOUS MEETING BETWEEN KASHOGGI AND THE INVESTIGATOR

According to attorney Kreindler, October 26, 2017 was also the day Khashoggi met with a 9/11 family investigator in Washington.

«“Khashoggi was part of the intelligence community and we knew he knew a lot about the Saudi government’s involvement in 9/11. He was connected to the Muslim Brotherhood and to [former Saudi Crown Prince] Muhammad bin Nayef, and that’s the reason our investigator went to speak with him,” said Kreindler. “She said would you come to New York and talk to my boss? He said yes”» wrote Christensen. Then he reports the personal considerations of the lawyer of the World Trade Center victims.

“I’m sure that as soon as she left, he called KBS [Khalid bin Salman] and said, ‘Look, the 9/11 lawyers are on to me. They know that I know what you guys did and I didn’t give ‘em anything, but you’re holding my kid in Saudi Arabia and if you harm him I will.’ So my belief is that Khashoggi was killed not because he was a dissident, there are lots of dissidents, but because he was holding this ax over the Saudis’ heads.” told the lawyer.

According to Kreindler, however, it was a preliminary meeting in which Kashoggi, in voluntary exile from Saudi Arabia since September 2017 due to a “climate of fear and intimidation, did not provide any useful information.

The Florida Bulldog article ends by reminding that “there are still other reasons why the kingdom may have wanted Khashoggi’s death. In early 2018 Khashoggi would be involved in creating a defense group called Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN) for a counter-narrative to the skeptics of the Arab Spring, initiated by the Obama-Biden administration.

REPORTER UNDER STOCK FOR THE WTC INVESTIGATION

Journalist Christensen had already highlighted the alleged responsibilities of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia by participating in a sensational interview by Matthew Ogden with former Senator Bob Graham in Naples, Florida, on November 11, 2014. Senator Graham was co-president of the joint Congressional 9/11 inquiry.

«The subject of the interview is the urgency of declassifying the redacted 28 pages of the Congressional Joint Inquiry’s report to expose the role of Saudi Arabia in financing not only the Al Qaeda attacks of September 11, 2001, but also continuing to finance ISIS and related terrorist organizations today». This was also highlighted by Gospa News in relation to the bombing of the Churches of Sri Lanka in Easter 2019 and in reference to the use of death row inmates in the war in Yemen, witnessed by an exclusive document that proves the links of intelligence of Riyadh by sending militiamen to Al Qaeda even after the attacks on the Twin Towers.

«Investigative reporter Dan Christensen of the Broward Bulldog, as well as Miami-based first amendment attorney Tom Julin also participated in the interview. Christensen and Julin have been instrumental in combating persistent stonewalling by the Federal Bureau of Investigations in pursuing crucial leads pertaining to connections between a prominent Saudi family and a cell of 9/11 hijackers in Sarasota, Florida prior to the 9/11 attacks».

It was highlighted years ago by an article by LaRouchePAC, the communication project of the enterprising Lyndon Hermyle LaRouche Junior, a US politician and activist of the Democrats who passed away in 2019, who for years opposed the Deep State by proposing himself as a candidate in the presidential primary multiple times, even when he ended up in jail for some quirky tax violations uncovered by the FBI that he had accused of cover-ups for the World Trade Center tragedy.

AGGRESSIVE DECEPTION AT THE CONGRESS

In the same reportage was reported a public statement released by the same Senator Graham who launched heavy accusations for the international conspiracy and the consequent misdirection which he defined as an “aggressive deception” at the United States Congress and the public in relation to the attacks.

“The connection is a direct one. Not only has Saudi Arabia been promoting this extreme form of religion, but it also has been the principal financier, first of Al Qaeda, then of the various Al Qaeda franchises around the world—specifically the ones in Somalia and Yemen— and now the support of ISIS…I believe that had the role of Saudi Arabia in 9/11 been disclosed by the release of the 28 pages, and by the declassification of other information as to the Saudi role and support of the 9/11 hijackers, that it would have made it much more difficult for Saudi Arabia to have continued that pattern of behavior, and I think [we] would have had a good chance of reining in the activity that today Canada, the United States and other countries either are or are considering going to war with.” stated Graham on October,9,2014.

Bush, Cheney Bandar and Rice on the White House balcony on September 13, 2001 – source LaRouchePac

«It’s not a secret that the Saudi Royal family is very close to the Bushes. In fact, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, former Saudi Ambassador to the U.S., whose role in 9/11 is highly questionable, is known to many as “Bandar Bush.” Perhaps the Bush Administration blocked the release of the 28 pages to defend the KSA, whom they view as a close family friend, a business partner, and political ally» is the conclusion of LaRouchePAC who in another reportage shows the photo of former US President George W. Bush jr, Vice President Cheney, Condoleeza Rice and Saudi Prince Bandar on the balcony of the White House on September 13, 2001. Two days after the Holocaust of the Twin Towers.

The 28-page document was then declassified in the following years (we will soon make a summary report of the contents), demonstrating the close links between exponents financed by the Saudi government and the Al Qaeda terrorists who planned the attack by the kamikaze hijackers. But relations between the US and Saudi Arabia did not change one iota and the 9/11 investigation remained shrouded in the dust of the collapse of the two towers and building 6 imploded without ever having been reached as if there had been the reported explosion. by many experts. That dust forms a thicker and thicker blanket on the truth.

Today another US Intelligence dossier arrives, unveiled on the political indication of the new president Joe Biden who accuses Bin Mohamed Salman of the brutal murder of Jamal Kashoggi but, just like then, nothing happens between Washington and Riyadh … It is perhaps specious remember that former Republican President Bush junior made a fundamental endorsement for Biden’s victory in the hot 2020 election campaign that pitted him against outgoing President Donald Trump?

A small reaction to the horrendous execution of the Muslim Washington Post journalist took place in Europe. Reporters Without Borders announced that it had filed a complaint in Germany for crimes against humanity against the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed ben Salman, for his “responsibility” in the murder of the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and in the incarceration of a thirty of his colleagues. Presented on Monday to the Attorney General of the Federal Court of Justice in Karlsruhe “for his jurisdiction” on major international crimes “, the complaint” concerns the widespread and systematic persecution of journalists in Saudi Arabia “, reads an RSF statement.

Will something happen? We do not believe since the MK 80 bombs used by Saudi Arabia also against Yemeni hospitals were produced in Sardinia by RWM Italia Spa which is a subsidiary of the German Rheinmetall, subcontractor of a contract between the Arabs and the American Raytheon …

The Weapons Lobby is stronger than any massacre: even today’s one started with the Covid-19 pandemic, built in a laboratory according to virology and intelligence experts, and continued with Big Pharma vaccines in a single colossal project of the New World Order to control of the world population first in terms of health, then economic and finally military.

read more…

Fabio Giuseppe Carlo Carisio
© COPYRIGHT GOSPA NEWS for VETERANS TODAY only
no reproduction without authorization – Versione originale in Italiano


MAIN SOURCES

GOSPA NEWS – WUHAN.GATES REPORTS

GOSPA NEWS – CORONA VIRUS DOSSIER

GOSPA NEWS – OSINT INVESTIGATIONS

GOSPA NEWS – WARZONES REPORTS

GOSPA NEWS – JIHADISTS REPORTS

MIDDLE EAST MONITOR – ISRAEL DEAL FOR US ARMS PURCHASES

HERALD SUN – DID SAUDIS KILL KHASHOGGI FOR HIS 9/11 SECRETS

FLORIDA BULLDOG  – KHASHOGGI MET 9/11 VICTIMS’ INVESTIGATOR

LAROUCHEPAC – 28PAGES HIDDEN ON 9/11 INQUIRY

AUTHOR DETAILSFabio Giuseppe Carlo CarisioDirector , Gospa NewsFabio is Director and Editor of Gospa News; a Christian Information Journal. Fabio Giuseppe Carlo Carisio, born on 24/2/1967 in Borgosesia, started working as a reporter since he was only 19 years old in the alpine area of Valsesia, Piedmont, his birth region in Italy. After studying literature and history at the Catholic University of the Sacred Heart in Milan, he became deputy director of a local newspaper and specialized in judicial reporting. For about 15 years he is a correspondent from Northern Italy for the Italian newspapers Libero and Il Giornale, also writing important revelations on the Ustica massacre, a report on Freemasonry and organized crime. With independent investigations he collaborates with Carabinieri and Guardia di Finanza in important investigations that conclude with the arrest of Camorra entrepreneurs or corrupt politicians. In July 2018 he found the counter-information webmedia Gospa News focused on geopolitics, terrorism, Middle East and military intelligence. He is a correspondent from Italy for the French news site Reseau International. He worked since many years for the magazine Art & Wine as art critic and curator http://www.art-wine.eu/https://www.gospanews.net/redazione@gospanews.net

SAA Decimates Stolen Syrian Oil Facilities Run by Erdogan and al-Qaeda

ARABI SOURI 

SAA Destroys Erdogan Stolen Syrian Oil Facility Northern Aleppo countryside

SAA units fired a barrage of surface-to-surface missiles targeting and destroying illegal oil storage and refinery facility run by the Turkish Madman Erdogan and a collection of al-Qaeda-affiliated terrorist groups in northern Aleppo countryside.

The late Friday night bombing of the facility comes after repeated warnings to the NATO member state Turkey and its terrorists to stop the looting of Syrian oil.

This is not the first of such an attack against the illicit, yet profitable, business for the family of Erdogan who mostly sells the stolen Syrian oil to Israel for peanuts along with the illegal organ trafficking and stolen Syrian wheat.

Erdogan and other NATO proxies operating in Syria deprive the Syrian people of food and oil and smuggle them abroad and burn what they cannot smuggle from the early days of the war on Syria while shouting all over the world NATO is helping the Syrian people achieve ‘democracy’ and ‘freedoms’. There are more than 16.5 million Syrians living in the provinces under government control suffering from the war waged against them and sanctions imposed on them by the hypocrite western regimes and their regional stooges and terrorists.

Storage and primitive oil refining facilities in Tarhin and Al-Homran between Al-Bab in the northeastern Aleppo countryside which is under Al-Qaeda and the Turkish Army control, and the city of Manbij which is under the Kurdish SDF terrorists’ control.

It’s no secret anymore that the US-sponsored Kurds are an essential tool in the US-led war of terror and war of attrition against Syria, just like the different terrorist groups that sprung out of Al-Qaeda Levant aka Nusra Front aka HTS aka the Free Syrian Army, one of which became the infamous ISIS terrorist group.

Kurd SDF Official Defects and Exposes the Group’s Relationship with ISIS

https://syrianews.cc/kurd-sdf-official-defects-and-exposes-the-groups-relationship-with-isis/embed/#?secret=e3oNcx4OTA

The Syrian oil is pumped out by NATO’s preferred ‘secular’ proxy the Kurdish SDF terrorists and smuggled to Turkey in the north through ISIS and other al-Qaeda affiliated groups and to Iraq in the east of Syria under the protection of the Oil Thieves Regiment of Biden Forces positioned illegally in Syria.

Erdogan will be losing a lot of potential income from this massive blow to his illegal business in the regions his Al-Qaeda and Turkish army occupy in northern Syria, but he didn’t invest from his family’s own money in the first place, this will be just depriving him and his terrorist groups of a tiny percentage of the funds he uses to finance his military adventures abroad all the way from China and Indonesia in the east to Germany and the UK in the northwest of the planet. He can still rely on the deep pockets of the gas-station state Qatar and the oil he’s looting from Libya for his war crimes.

This bombing by the Syrian Arab Army, yet to be confirmed, sends messages in multiple directions, to Israel that Syria’s capabilities are building up and will reach a point of losing patience from the repeated Israeli bombings; to the ‘diversified Biden junta’ in the White House: the world has changed a lot since Trump took over and showed the world your reality, and to terrorists like Erdogan, Al-Qaeda, ISIS, Kurdish SDF separatists that the time of their war crimes is coming to end sooner than they were wishing for.

Stealing Syria’s Oil: The EU Al-Qaeda Oil Consortium

https://syrianews.cc/stealing-syrias-oil-qaeda-oil-consortium/embed/#?secret=8PDJb3lVLN

Trump Protesting Syrian – Russian Oil Agreements by Terrorist Attacks on Syrian Oil Facilities

https://syrianews.cc/trump-protesting-syrian-russian-oil-agreements-by-terrorist-attacks-on-syrian-oil-facilities/embed/#?secret=Epn2pgjxxj

Syria: Oil Pipelines Sabotaged in Tartous Marine Terminal

https://syrianews.cc/syria-oil-pipelines-sabotaged-in-tartous-marine-terminal/embed/#?secret=ObCKkVfG0S

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The video is also

on YouTube and BitChute.https://www.google.com/maps/d/embed?mid=1zEOtoDz70ELk1FTHjOjeeL1BFxJTbBk7&hl=en

SAA Destroys Erdogan Stolen Syrian Oil Facility Northern Aleppo countryside
Tochka spent surface-to-surface missile - Aleppo countryside

Erdogan and other NATO proxies operating in Syria deprive the Syrian people of food and oil and smuggle them abroad and burn what they cannot smuggle from the early days of the war on Syria while shouting all over the world NATO is helping the Syrian people achieve ‘democracy’ and ‘freedoms’. There are more than 16.5 million Syrians living in the provinces under government control suffering from the war waged against them and sanctions imposed on them by the hypocrite western regimes and their regional stooges and terrorists.

Storage and primitive oil refining facilities in Tarhin and Al-Homran between Al-Bab in the northeastern Aleppo countryside which is under Al-Qaeda and the Turkish Army control, and the city of Manbij which is under the Kurdish SDF terrorists’ control.

It’s no secret anymore that the US-sponsored Kurds are an essential tool in the US-led war of terror and war of attrition against Syria, just like the different terrorist groups that sprung out of Al-Qaeda Levant aka Nusra Front aka HTS aka the Free Syrian Army, one of which became the infamous ISIS terrorist group.

Kurd SDF Official Defects and Exposes the Group’s Relationship with ISIS

https://syrianews.cc/kurd-sdf-official-defects-and-exposes-the-groups-relationship-with-isis/embed/#?secret=e3oNcx4OTA

The Syrian oil is pumped out by NATO’s preferred ‘secular’ proxy the Kurdish SDF terrorists and smuggled to Turkey in the north through ISIS and other al-Qaeda affiliated groups and to Iraq in the east of Syria under the protection of the Oil Thieves Regiment of Biden Forces positioned illegally in Syria.

Erdogan will be losing a lot of potential income from this massive blow to his illegal business in the regions his Al-Qaeda and Turkish army occupy in northern Syria, but he didn’t invest from his family’s own money in the first place, this will be just depriving him and his terrorist groups of a tiny percentage of the funds he uses to finance his military adventures abroad all the way from China and Indonesia in the east to Germany and the UK in the northwest of the planet. He can still rely on the deep pockets of the gas-station state Qatar and the oil he’s looting from Libya for his war crimes.

This bombing by the Syrian Arab Army, yet to be confirmed, sends messages in multiple directions, to Israel that Syria’s capabilities are building up and will reach a point of losing patience from the repeated Israeli bombings; to the ‘diversified Biden junta’ in the White House: the world has changed a lot since Trump took over and showed the world your reality, and to terrorists like Erdogan, Al-Qaeda, ISIS, Kurdish SDF separatists that the time of their war crimes is coming to end sooner than they were wishing for.

Stealing Syria’s Oil: The EU Al-Qaeda Oil Consortium

https://syrianews.cc/stealing-syrias-oil-qaeda-oil-consortium/embed/#?secret=8PDJb3lVLN

Trump Protesting Syrian – Russian Oil Agreements by Terrorist Attacks on Syrian Oil Facilities

https://syrianews.cc/trump-protesting-syrian-russian-oil-agreements-by-terrorist-attacks-on-syrian-oil-facilities/embed/#?secret=Epn2pgjxxj

Syria: Oil Pipelines Sabotaged in Tartous Marine Terminal

https://syrianews.cc/syria-oil-pipelines-sabotaged-in-tartous-marine-terminal/embed/#?secret=ObCKkVfG0S

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Follow us on Telegram: http://t.me/syupdates link will open Telegram app.

NATO Supremacists Continue anti-Syria Chemical Hoax UNSC Meetings

 MIRI WOOD 

Syrian Ambassador Jaafari addressing the supremacists at the UNSC

NATO supremacists klansmen running the United Nations held their umpteenth chemical hoax anti-Syria UNSC meeting on 3 February. The UN press corps had immediately chosen not to publish a release on the bad infinity meeting, seemingly too busy in sharing the announcements of various new (temporary) permanent members engaging in ring-kissing meetings with Secretary-General Antonio Gutteres (a small photo gallery of the SG’s colonialist leanings found here).

These monthly reruns are held under the guise of implementing UNSCR 2118, which was passed on 27 September 2013; UNSCR 242 that was passed in 1967 not only does not require monthly meetings on implementation, but also does not require any resolutions to condemn occupying forces from treating wounded terrorists, nor to condemn occupying forces when they bomb from the region, nor to condemn presidents who illegally make presents of the occupied region.

state-of-art-medical
When it comes to terrorists on the occupied Golan, Israel spares no US taxpayer expense in state of art medical care

Before taking a perfunctory glance at the hypocritical arrogance of the P3 Security Council member supremacists, and their customary vomiting up lies and then eating their own, and each other’s emesis, like ravenous dogs, the following article will serve as a refresher course from the first threats to use chemical weapons against Syria, beginning 5 December 2012. It was published 2 March 2017, one month and two days before Jahbat al Nusra terrorists staged its heinous murders of mostly children who were kidnapped, for the supremacists and their media dogs, in Khan Sheikhoun.

True History of FSA Chemical Weapons Threats against Syria

https://syrianews.cc/true-history-fsa-chemical-weapons-threats-syria/embed/#?secret=27AGpDFILd


Let us take a short trip down memory lane, followed by an amnesia antidote on the chemical terror attack leading up to UNSCR 2118 (2013), possibly the resolution that incited the most excitement among the supremacists running the United Nations — that bastion of peace and security that continues to inversely unleash mayhem throughout the world.

Western P3 supremacists France, Britain, and the US have extensive histories as the world leaders in genocide, and also in deployment of weapons of mass destruction, including chemical ones. France called its nuclear bombings of Algerian tribes, Gerboise Bleue; Britain gassed Russia and also “uncivilized tribes” in Iraq; America’s Truman chuckled before telling his people that he had used the country’s two nuclear bombs against Japan, and the US has consistently used white phosphorus as an alleged incendiary device. By naming the chemical weapon white phosphorus ”incendiary device,” it becomes exempt from being considered a chemical weapon. Human beings destroyed by them are merely ”collateral damage,” oh well.

Photos of Algerian survivors of France nuclear bombings seem to be in permanent lockdown.

Let us now do a short decontamination of the NATO supremacists’ convenient amnesia:

  • The US joined the Chemical Weapons Convention in 1997. The US still has over 3,000 tons of CWs that have somehow not yet been destroyed. There was no UNSC resolution when the US joined; therefore there is no ability to hold monthly meetings for its implementation.
  • In December 2012, threats of unleashing chemical attacks were uploaded to social media. The threats came from within Turkey. The criminals used rabbits in two fatal experiments; the first appeared to have used VX. In the second, the savage demonstration, the claim was made that a quick-acting poison would be used to pollute the Alsinn water supply to Lattakia. Dr. Jaafari requested a UN investigation, which was ignored (comparing the 21 December 2012 rabbit video with the original Khan Sheikhoun snuff porn video uploaded by the al Qaeda White Helmets on 4 April 2017, this author states with reasonable certainty that this was the same chemical poison.
  • On 19 March 2013, terrorists unleashed weapons-grade chlorine on Khan al Asal. Two dozen soldiers and civilians were murdered. Ambassador Jaafari’s request one day later, for a UN-OPCW investigation was sabotaged by the British and French ambassadors. OPCW investigators sent to inspect Khan al Asal five months after evidence would have been degraded arrived just before the 21 August Ghouta attack, and were diverted.
  • In May 2013, American illegal in Aleppo, Matthew VanDyke emailed former ladies’ undergarments salesman cum unemployed couch potato and gamer Eliot Higgins that terrorists had ”small quantities” of chemical weapons, and were prepared to use them against civilians, to blame on the Syrian government. 
  • In early August 2013, moderate FSA terrorists — including criminals from Qatar’s al Jazeera — raided villages in Lattakia, slaughtering men, and kidnapping women and their children. Some of the abductees were identified by their corpses shown after the terrorist chemical attack in al Ghouta, 21 August 2013. Terrorists later complained that they did not know that the missiles from al Saud contained chemical agents, that Prince Bandar should have sent instructions on how to use them.
  • The world stood on edge as Obama and other western supremacists considered the obliteration of the S. A. R., because Western-supported terrorists had used chemical weapons. Syria acceded to the CWC on 14 October 2013.
  • The UN-OPCW held several meetings high-fiving each other for the speed at which Syria’s CWs were collected and obliterated (some photos, here.). Nobody mentioned that the UN-OPCW came under missile fire via Madman Erdogan, though, while at the Lattakia port — daintily described as “volatile security conditions” in the 4 June 2014 UN news report on OPCW-UN Special Coordinator Sigrid Kaag’s address to the Security Council.
  • Secretary of State John Kerry — whose ‘slip of the tongue‘ opened the door to Syria joining the CWC to avoid being Libyanized — told Meet the Press in 2014: “We struck a deal where we got 100 percent of the chemical weapons out.” 
  • As literature has taught us there is no good outcome to making a deal with the devil (the best possible outcome is a regrouping during postponement– in this case, western supremacists — the P3-headed demon lead by Trump, bombed Syria on 7 April 2017 because a Brit illegal whose medical license was permanently revoked, told CNN that Syria had bombed Syria with chemical weapons. Almost one year later, the tripartite war criminals again bombed Syria, based on the lies of malignant sociopaths in Douma, who kidnap, murder, and one who somehow was in possession of a Syrian woman’s dead fetus.
White Helmets
How did a White Helmet come into possession of a dead fetus & why does this pervert play with the body?

On 20 January 2020, an Arria Formula meeting was held on Douma, because the NATO supremacists refused to give a Security Council audience to the OPCW’s own Ian Henderson, who led the investigations (Syria News reminds our readers that the SAR immediately requested an investigation by UN-OPCW, and that the investigations were postponed after members came under sniper fire by the same terrorists who had slaughtered dozens of Syrians in Douma, uploaded what should have been recognized as their crimes, to social media, while screaming ‘chemical weapons.’). This was the same SC that refused to hear Jose Bustani in October 2020, on the pretense that he had not participated in the investigations, after which the OPCW censored people with questions, but limiting comments to its Twitter account, to the insider elite tagees.

OPCW has sold itself to NATO warmongers & functions as press liaison for al Qaeda in Syria.

Upon digesting the above, it comes as no surprise that the tripartite aggressor UN representatives — speaking for the world’s leaders in genocide, colonialism, and all other forms of supremacy — were the unified, barking rabid dogs of war, unabashedly unashamed by their hypocrisy and arrogance. The UK — the country whose Tony Blair has not only never been indicted for his war crimes involving his WMD lies about Iraq — lied that “Syria’s declaration…can still not be considered accurate & complete.” France — which never forgave Syria for ejecting French occupiers — again announced its support of al Qaeda in the SAR, functioning as press liaison to terrorists of Ghouta, Khan Sheikhoun, Ltamenah, Douma. The US — which released al Baghdadi from an Iraqi jail and sent him to Jordan with a $10,000,000 slush fund to train DAESH savages — demanded Syria to be held accountable for the terror inflicted on the country by the degenerate criminals it has trained, armed, and deployed into the country.

Utilizing his unique and uncanny skill of throwing those proverbial pearls before swine while maintaining the protocol of true diplomatic language, Dr. Jaafari again meticulously explained reality to the P3 NATO klan supremacists — and to their dancing House Servants — that Syria joined the OPCW 2013, that Syria relinquished all of its chemical weapons stockpile, that Syria has engaged in full cooperation with the OPCW.

Nonetheless, the barking hyenas continue to use these bad infinity “chemical files” as another criminal weapon — “political blackmail” — in the criminal foreign war imposed upon his country.https://www.youtube.com/embed/ky6yXqXSlRg?start=2&feature=oembed

Syria News reminds our readers that on 22 November. Syria’s President Dr. Bashar al Assad appointed Dr. Jaafari as Deputy Foreign and Expatriates Minister.

Though it was beginning to look as though His Excellency, Minister Dr. Jaafari were to give new meaning to Permanent Representative, this 3 February address to the NATO junta supremacists ruling the United Nations, was his final act of pearl-throwing.

— Miri Wood

Postscript:

Due to circumstances beyond her control, the author was unable to issue this essential report at an earlier time.

Dr. Jaafari took his oath of office on 14 February.

Foreign and Expatriates Minister Faisal Mekdad attends Dr. Jaafari’s swearing in, by President Assad, 14 February.

Recommended reading:

Syria’s Jaafari to UNSC NATO Klan: Let My People Breathe

https://syrianews.cc/syria-jaafari-to-unsc-nato-klan-let-my-people-breathe/embed/#?secret=IasWRsHfCX

Kurd SDF Official Defects and Exposes the Group’s Relationship with ISIS

https://syrianews.cc/kurd-sdf-official-defects-and-exposes-the-groups-relationship-with-isis/embed/#?secret=jHkMXVsMLR

Please help support Syria News:

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Biden’s accounts with Russia. What will Erdogan do? حسابات بايدن مع روسيا.. ماذا سيفعل إردوغان؟

**English Machine translation Please scroll down for the Arabic original version **

Biden’s accounts with Russia. What will Erdogan do?

حسابات بايدن مع روسيا.. ماذا سيفعل إردوغان؟
Biden’s accounts with Russia. What will Erdogan do?
حسني محلي

Husni Mahali 

Al-Mayadeen Net

1 March

Georgia is gaining additional importance in Washington’s calculations, and soon President Biden, because it challenges Russia’s nine autonomous republics — most of whose population is Muslim — including Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan.

Since joining NATO in the early 1950s, Ankara has played a key role in opposing the Western camp, led by America, to the Soviet Union, which was then adjacent to Turkey through Georgia and Armenia in the south. Through dozens of Atlantic and U.S. bases in its territory (12 of which remain), Turkey was also an advanced outpost to defend Western interests and prevent the Communist Soviet Union from expanding south toward the Arab and Muslim world.

The fall of the Soviet Union after the Afghan war and the resulting birth of The Islamic Republics of Turkish origin gave Ankara more power in regional and international calculations, especially after the late President Turgut Ozal’s talks on “the unity of the Turkish nation, from the Adriatic Sea (Bosnia, Kosovo and Macedonia) to the China Dam, through Bulgaria and Greece, where Muslim minorities of Turkish origin are.

Ozal’s words were welcomed and encouraged by Washington, the traditional enemy of the Soviet Union, and then Russia, which the West wanted to surround from its southern flank, where the Islamic republics, and from the West, where the countries that nato embraced in 2004, namely Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, and southern Bulgaria and Romania, which overlook the Black Sea, which Turkey controls, control its only Bosphorus Strait.

This came at a time when Ukraine and Georgia paid dearly for their adventures during their velvet revolutions in which Western institutions played a major role, with Abkhazia and South Ossetia declaring independence with the support of Moscow, and separated from Georgia, while the civil war in Ukraine was a reason for the partition of the country, after the citizens of the eastern regions voted for secession, prompting Russia to “annex” Crimea in 2014.

As was the case in the 1950s and beyond, Ankara has played, and continues to play, some role in all of these developments that President Erdogan wanted to help him to support his projects and plans, which appear to have been influenced by Ozal’s slogans, and Ankara has had, and continues to be, directly and indirectly linked to the developments of its neighbor Georgia, whose tens of thousands of its citizens work in Turkey.

Georgia is gaining additional importance in washington’s calculations, and soon President Biden, because it challenges russia’s nine self-governing republics — mostof whose population is Muslim — including Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan.

Thousands of citizens of these and other Central Asian republics have joined Al-Nusra and ISIS, while Washington wants to help it in the future in its plans to tighten the blockade on Russia, and the factions of “Afghan jihadists” helped America achieve its first goal, which is to overthrow and tear the Soviet Union, according to the green belt theory, it became clear that Washington is planning to return to this belt, and wants Turkey to play a key role in activating it, but after agreeing with Erdogan on a comprehensive deal to achieve both sides the biggest direct and indirect gains, which Presidents Biden and Erdogan are preparing on the eve of the phone call between the two parties, which seem to have been delayed by the many topics that will be in front of them, difficult and intertwined, and they need each other.

In exchange for the financial and political support of Erdogan, which seems to be in dire need, President Biden wants Turkey to go back to the 1950s and prove its absolute loyalty to Washington and NATO, which is clearly preparing for a new phase of psychological, economic and political war against Russia, this time through its back gardens to the south and west, which means that it needs to support President Erdogan because of his ties and role in the Central Asian Islamic Republics (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan), as in the Caucasus, where Azerbaijan is linked to Azerbaijan. Georgia has privileged relations, and Washington seeks to annex it to NATO, along with Ukraine.

The events in Armenia at this time are of added importance, having become a direct arena for U.S. and French intervention against the traditional Russian role. Ankara is watching all these interventions closely, firstly because Armenia is a neighboring country, and secondly because of information about the possibility that President Biden will recognize the Armenian genocide of the Ottoman era during World War I, without neglecting Washington’s privileged relationship between Ankara and Kiev, and at the expense of The Russian plans in Ukraine, Erdogan has repeatedly rejected Putin’s decision to “annex” Crimea to Russia, while information speaks of very broad cooperation between Turkey and Ukraine in all fields, especially military industries, including drones, tanks and missiles, with significant Turkish support for the Muslim minority in Crimea.

Ankara has also succeeded in establishing privileged relations with most of the former Soviet Republics and Eastern European countries that have bad memories with Moscow, which President Biden may need in his future calculations to tighten the blockade on Russia within its borders or elsewhere, particularly Latin America, where Erdogan has succeeded in establishing privileged relations with its most prominent head of state, Nicolas Maduro, despite all the personal, ideological and political contradictions between them.

President Biden may need Turkish support for his plans and projects in the Middle East, particularly in Syria, which has turned into a front alcove to defend Russian interests in the region, and across it in many regional and international arenas in which Washington, some Western capitals, and sometimes Ankara, are competing, despite the contradiction of interests among all of these capitals.

In all cases, it seems clear that we will not wait long to see what Biden will ask of Erdogan, and how the latter will respond to these demands, the most important of which is undoubtedly a return to Turkey’s nationalist, religious and historical behavior against Russia. For the past five years, after Erdogan’s apology following the downing of the Russian plane, President Putin has sought to block this possibility through a combination of interlocking economic, political and military relations with Ankara and its implications for coordination, cooperation and joint action in Syria.

With the information that president Biden expects to clear all his accounts with Ankara, whether negative or positive, President Erdogan finds himself in a situation that is never enviable, having become clear that his options are limited, either continue the current situation in the relationship with Moscow and Washington, which Biden will not accept, or continue his cooperation with Russia and its allies, which is completely impossible.

In this case, in his very difficult situation internally, he has no choice but to agree with President Biden on the axes of the next phase, and to minimize the losses in his relations with Russia that he does not want to repeat, as Biden, who knows he has a lot of serious papers against him personally and officially, wishes.

The most important question remains: Will Biden put these papers on the table and ask for them to be resolved, or will he ask Erdogan to use his own papers in Russia’s backyards, in exchange for absolute support in the gardens of others!?

حسابات بايدن مع روسيا.. ماذا سيفعل إردوغان؟

تكتسب جورجيا أهمية إضافية في حسابات واشنطن، وقريباً الرئيس بايدن، لأنها تحدّ جمهوريات الحكم الذاتي الروسية – معظم سكّانها مسلمون – وعددها تسعة، ومنها الشيشان وأنغوشيا وداغستان.

حسابات بايدن مع روسيا.. ماذا سيفعل إردوغان؟
حسابات بايدن مع روسيا.. ماذا سيفعل إردوغان؟

أدَّت أنقرة منذ انضمامها إلى الحلف الأطلسي في بداية الخمسينيات من القرن الماضي دوراً أساسياً في معاداة المعسكر الغربي، بزعامة أميركا، للاتحاد السوفياتي، الذي كان آنذاك مجاوراً لتركيا من خلال جورجيا وأرمينيا في الجنوب. كما كانت تركيا، من خلال عشرات القواعد الأطلسية والأميركية الموجودة في أراضيها (ما زال هناك 12 قاعدة منها)، مخفراً متقدماً للدفاع عن المصالح الغربية ومنع الاتحاد السوفياتي الشيوعي من التمدد جنوباً باتجاه العالم العربي والإسلامي.

وجاء سقوط الاتحاد السّوفياتيّ بعد الحرب الأفغانيّة وما نتج منه من ولادة الجمهوريات الإسلاميّة ذات الأصل التركي، ليمنح أنقرة المزيد من عناصر القوة في الحسابات الإقليمية والدولية، وخصوصاً بعد أحاديث الرئيس الراحل تورغوت أوزال عن “وحدة الأمة التركية، من البحر الأدرياتيكي (البوسنة وكوسوفو ومقدونيا) إلى سد الصين الحصين، مروراً ببلغاريا واليونان، حيث الأقليات المسلمة ذات الأصل التركي.

وقد حظيت مقولات أوزال بترحيب وتشجيع من واشنطن؛ العدو التقليدي للاتحاد السوفياتي، ومن بعده روسيا، التي أراد الغرب أن يحاصرها من خاصرتها الجنوبية، حيث الجمهوريات الإسلامية، ومن الغرب، حيث الدول التي احتضنها الحلف الأطلسي في العام 2004، وهي أستونيا ولاتفيا وليتوانيا، وجنوبا بلغاريا ورومانيا اللتين تطلان على البحر الأسود، الذي تسيطر تركيا على مضيقه الوحيد البوسفور.

أتى ذلك في الوقت الذي دفعت أوكرانيا وجورجيا ثمن مغامراتهما غالياً خلال ثوراتهما المخملية التي أدت فيها مؤسسات غربية دوراً رئيسياً، فقد أعلنت أبخازيا وأوسيتيا الجنوبية استقلالهما بدعم من موسكو، وانفصلتا عن جورجيا، فيما كانت الحرب الأهلية في أوكرانيا سبباً لتقسيم البلاد، بعد أن صوّت مواطنو المناطق الشرقية من أجل الانفصال، ودفع ذلك روسيا إلى “ضم” شبه جزيرة القرم إليها في العام 2014.

وكما كان الوضع في الخمسينيات وما بعدها، فقد أدت أنقرة، وما تزال، دوراً ما في مجمل هذه التطورات التي أراد لها الرئيس إردوغان أن تساعده لدعم مشاريعه ومخططاته التي يبدو أنها تأثرت بالشعارات التي رفعها أوزال، فقد كان لأنقرة، وما يزال، علاقة مباشرة وغير مباشرة بمجمل تطورات جارتها جورجيا، التي يعمل عشرات الآلاف من مواطنيها في تركيا.

وتكتسب جورجيا أهمية إضافية في حسابات واشنطن، وقريباً الرئيس بايدن، لأنها تحدّ جمهوريات الحكم الذاتي الروسية – معظم سكّانها مسلمون – وعددها تسعة، ومنها الشيشان وأنغوشيا وداغستان. 

وقد انضمّ الآلاف من مواطني هذه الجمهوريات وغيرها في آسيا الوسطى إلى “النصرة” و”داعش”، في الوقت الذي تريد واشنطن لها أن تساعدها مستقبلاً في مخطّطاتها لتضييق الحصار على روسيا، كما ساعدت فصائل “الجهاديين الأفغان” أميركا في تحقيق هدفها الأول، وهو إسقاط الاتحاد السوفياتي وتمزيقه، وفق نظرية الحزام الأخضر، فقد بات واضحاً أن واشنطن تخطط للعودة إلى هذا الحزام، وتريد لتركيا أن يكون لها دور أساسي في تفعيله، ولكن بعد الاتفاق مع إردوغان على صفقة شاملة تحقّق للطرفين الحد الأكبر من المكاسب المباشرة وغير المباشرة، وهو ما يستعدّ له الرئيسان بايدن وإردوغان عشية المكالمة الهاتفية بين الطرفين، والتي يبدو أنها تأخّرت بسبب كثرة المواضيع التي ستكون أمامهما وصعوبتها وتشابكها، وهما يحتاجان إلى بعضهما البعض.

ومقابل الدعم المالي والسياسي لإردوغان، الذي يبدو أنه في أمس الحاجة إليه، يريد الرئيس بايدن لتركيا أن تعود إلى خمسينيات القرن الماضي، وتثبت ولاءها المطلق لواشنطن والحلف الأطلسي، الذي يبدو واضحاً أنه يستعد لمرحلة جديدة من الحرب النفسية والاقتصادية والسياسية ضد روسيا، وهذه المرة عبر حدائقها الخلفية جنوباً وغرباً، وهو ما يعني حاجتها إلى دعم الرئيس إردوغان بسبب علاقاته ودوره في جمهوريات آسيا الوسطى الإسلامية (كازاخستان وتركمنستان وقرغيزيا وأوزبكستان)، كما هو الحال في القوقاز، حيث ترتبط تركيا مع أذربيجان وجورجيا بعلاقات مميزة، وتسعى واشنطن لضمّها إلى الحلف الأطلسي، ومعها أوكرانيا.

وتكتسب أحداث أرمينيا في هذا التوقيت أهمية إضافية، بعد أن تحوّلت إلى ساحة مباشرة للتدخل الأميركي والفرنسي ضد الدور الروسي التقليدي. وتراقب أنقرة كل هذه التدخلات عن كثب؛ أولاً لأنّ أرمينيا دولة مجاورة لها، وثانياً بسبب المعلومات التي تتحدث عن احتمالات أن يعترف الرئيس بايدن في 24 نيسان/أبريل القادم بالإبادة الأرمنية في العهد العثماني إبان الحرب العالمية الأولى وخلالها، من دون أن تهمل واشنطن العلاقة المميزة بين أنقرة وكييف، وعلى حساب المخططات الروسية في أوكرانيا، إذ أعلن إردوغان أكثر من مرة رفضه قرار بوتين “ضم” شبه جزيرة القرم إلى روسيا، في الوقت الذي تتحدّث المعلومات عن تعاون واسع جداً بين تركيا وأوكرانيا في جميع المجالات، وخصوصاً الصناعات العسكرية، ومنها الطائرات المسيّرة والدبابات والصواريخ، مع دعم تركي كبير للأقليّة المسلمة في القرم.

كما نجحت أنقرة في إقامة علاقات مميزة مع معظم جمهوريات الاتحاد السوفياتي السابق ودول أوروبا الشرقية التي لها ذكريات سيئة مع موسكو، وهو ما قد يحتاجه الرئيس بايدن في حساباته المستقبلية لتضييق الحصار على روسيا داخل حدودها أو في أي مكان آخر، وبشكل خاص أميركا اللاتينية، التي نجح إردوغان في إقامة علاقات مميّزة مع أبرز رئيس دولة فيها، نيكولاس مادورو، رغم كلّ التناقضات الشخصية والعقائدية والسياسية بينهما.

وقد يحتاج الرئيس بايدن إلى دعم تركي لمخططاته ومشاريعه في الشرق الأوسط، وخصوصاً في سوريا، التي تحولت إلى خندق أمامي للدفاع عن المصالح الروسية في المنطقة، وعبرها في العديد من الساحات الإقليمية والدولية التي تنافسها فيها واشنطن وبعض العواصم الغربية، وأحياناً أنقرة، على الرغم من تناقض المصالح بين جميع هذه العواصم.

وفي جميع الحالات، يبدو واضحاً أننا لن ننتظر طويلاً حتى نرى ما سيطلبه بايدن من إردوغان، وكيف سيرد الأخير على هذه المطالب، وأهمها من دون شك العودة إلى السلوك القومي والديني والتاريخي التركي ضد روسيا. وقد سعى الرئيس بوتين طيلة السنوات الخمس الأخيرة، وبعد اعتذار إردوغان منه إثر إسقاط الطائرة الروسية، لسد الطريق على هذا الاحتمال، من خلال مجموعة من العلاقات الاقتصادية والسياسية والعسكرية المتشابكة مع أنقرة وانعكاساتها على التنسيق والتعاون والعمل المشترك في سوريا.

ومع المعلومات التي تتوقع للرئيس بايدن أن يصفي كل حساباته مع أنقرة، سواء كان سلباً أو إيجاباً، يجد الرئيس إردوغان نفسه في وضع لا يحسد عليه أبداً، بعد أن بات واضحاً أن خياراته محدودة، فإما يستمر في الوضع الحالي في العلاقة مع موسكو وواشنطن، وهو ما لن يقبل به بايدن، وإما يتمادى في تعاونه مع روسيا وحليفاتها، وهو مستحيل تماماً.

وفي هذه الحالة، لا يبقى أمامه، في ظلّ وضعه الصعب جداً داخلياً، إلا الاتفاق مع الرئيس بايدن على محاور المرحلة القادمة، وبالحد الأدنى من الخسائر في علاقاته مع روسيا التي لا يريد أن يعاديها، كما يرغب بايدن، الذي يعرف الجميع أنه يملك الكثير من الأوراق الخطيرة ضده شخصياً ورسمياً.

ويبقى السؤال الأهم: هل سيضع بايدن هذه الأوراق على الطاولة ويطلب حسمها أم سيطلب من إردوغان أن يستخدم ما يملكه من الأوراق في حدائق روسيا الخلفية، مقابل تقديم دعم مطلق له في حدائق الآخرين!؟

TURKEY’S ETERNAL CRUSADE ON PKK CONTINUES

South Front

Turkey is unrelenting in its crusade against the Kurdistan Worker’s Party and the People’s Protection Units, as two parts of a whole.

Ankara’s forces carry out frequent operations within and without the country, targeting both the Kurdistan Worker’s Party s (PKK) and the People’s Protection Units (YPG)’s interests and members. The Turkish government dubs both groups as terrorists, and does not shy away from invading the sovereign territory of other countries to pursue and “eliminate” their members and positions.

As a result, Turkey frequently encroaches on Syrian and Iraqi territory, and even has observation posts set up to target its Kurdish enemy.

It strongly opposes the Syrian Democratic Forces, a group whose core is comprised of the YPG, and receives heavy US support.

Most recently, between February 10th and the 14th, Turkey began its most recent operation in northern Iraq. In particular, it took place on the Gara Mountain in the Duhok Governorate of the Kurdistan Region. The result was such that both the PKK and the Turkish Armed Forces claimed victory, following the operation. The accounts of what transpired vary.

Turkey said it killed 53 PKK members, and captured 2. It admitted to losing 3 soldiers, while 4 of its troops were wounded in battle. According to the PKK, Turkey lost at least 30 soldiers, and dozens more were injured. A sort of collateral damage involved 13 Turkish hostages whose corpses were discovered in a cave network in the mountain area. Turkey and the US claimed that these were largely civilians, and some intelligence officers. The PKK claimed these were 13 Turkish military hostages. Turkey’s Defense Minister claimed many weapons and ammunition, as well as other equipment were seized.

In the aftermath, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed to expand military operations which showed progress to other regions where threats are still significant.

Ankara’s aggressive and assertive actions are making many of the involved parties dissatisfied. Regardless it keeps carrying them out and shows no intention of stopping.

In Iraq, the Al-Nujaba Islamic Resistance Movement issued a warning to the Turkish Army against invading the country any longer. It said that it would suffer the same fate as the American Army whose convoys and positions continue to be targeted. Iraq maintains the posture that Turkey must withdraw fully from its sovereign territory. It should simply pack up its bases in the north of the country and vacate the premises.

In response, Turkey maintains that the West, and Iraq’s government aren’t doing enough to counter the alleged terrorist threat. Ankara claims it has its right of self-defense, even if it requires invading other countries.

Operation Claw Eagle 2 was of questionable success, if the numbers by the PKK are to be considered, against those provided by Turkey. These operations, however, are unlikely to stop, both in Iraq and Syria.

Erdogan seems hell-bent on solving all “security issues” and expanding Turkish activities in regions that are deemed threatening to Ankara’s interests.

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