Hezbollah Special Forces to Infiltrate, Take Control of Several ‘Israeli’ Settlements – INSS Study

Hezbollah Special Forces to Infiltrate, Take Control of Several ‘Israeli’ Settlements - INSS Study

By Staff

A 73-page study by the ‘Israeli’ entity’s Institute for National Security Studies [INSS] exposed the weakness the Zionist military would show in any future war with Hezbollah.

With the northern front being the most difficult and main challenge for the ‘Israeli’ entity, and today’s estimations hinting that neither Hezbollah nor Iran are interested in a battle with ‘Israel’, readiness for a possible escalation or war breakout is required, as a result of the transformations or the wrong estimations in this regard.

According to the study, ‘Israel’ will face in the future war new and more difficult challenges than the ones it faced before amid the new threats that will affect a war’s characteristics, if it happened.

Supposing that the war will take place on two fronts at one, the military and civilian fronts, the latter will be hit with a higher average of missiles, in comparison with the previous conflicts, especially in the first stage of war. At the same time, the number of launched missiles will cover a wider range than that in previous conflicts with Hezbollah and Hamas. Relatively, the civilian front will be endangered on different levels, which impedes the ‘security’ Zionist settlers currently feel.

Meanwhile, the head of institute declared that “the situation is alarming for the ‘Israeli’ society. He explained that the lack of the spirit of common destiny, common goal, solidarity, and readiness to bear the burdens during the Coronavirus crisis raise major concerns regarding the results of war.”

Brigadier General Udi Dekel warned of several related scenarios, including attacks targeting the internal ‘Israeli’ front using thousands of missiles, dozens of which are precision-guided ones. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles [UAVs] are also set to be deployed simultaneously from different fronts.

Additionally, several Special Units from Hezbollah forces will infiltrate to the occupied territories and take control of the border settlements, vital facilities along the Lebanese border, as well as the occupied Golan, the study noted, warning that severe damage will be caused to strategic targets within the Zionist entity.

The study came up with a conclusion that the battle will be fought on different fronts in Lebanon, Syria, west Iraq and the possible involvement of Hamas and the Islamic Jihad in Gaza.

The study’s conductors pointed that the scenario of the sudden attack, when the ‘Israeli’ ‘defense’ systems are not ready, may harm the military capability. This will reflect in a spontaneous response, readiness of the aerial forces, and mobilization of reserve forces.

In any scenario, the study added, ‘Israel’s’ enemy will focus on causing damage inside the civilian front, and breaking the Zionist entity’s economy.


South Front

An unmanned aerial vehicle operated by Lebanese Hezbollah managed to cross into Israel’s north and monitor the Israeli military drills dubbed “Lethal Arrow”, Lebanese media affiliated with Hezbollah reported on December 3. The incident allegedly took place on November 26, on the second day of the drills.

The Israeli side promoted the drill as an exercise to put to the test a strategy based on network-centered warfare bringing together the capabilities of ground, air, naval and cyber forces to quickly eliminate hostile targets in the event of the conflict in the area. The Hezbollah drone buzzed Israeli forces just during these military exercises. Additionally, on December 3, the Israeli government urged its citizens to avoid travel to the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, citing threats of Iranian attacks.

At the same time, the United States and its allies continue demonstrating concerns regarding possible attacks in Iraq in the wake of an expected Iranian retaliation to the assassination of its top nuclear scientist near Tehran in an alleged US-Israeli plot. According to media reports, following the earlier move of the United States, France and Spain are also considering at least partial withdrawal of diplomatic staff from Iraq. US officials speculate that Iranian-backed factions of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces, an official branch of the Iraqi military, are preparing attacks on facilities and personnel of the US diplomatic mission.

Meanwhile, in the South Caucasus, Azerbaijan for the first time released an official number of its casualties in the Second Nagorno-Karabkah War. According to the defense ministry, 2783 Azerbaijani soldiers were killed, 1245 were injured and over 100 are still missing. In own turn, the Health Ministry of Armenia reported that at least 2718 Armenian soldiers were killed as a result of the conflict. The almost equal casualties of the advancing and defending forces in the standoff in such a complex mountainous area as Nagorno-Karabkah is another factual demonstration of the overwhelming Azerbaijani dominance in the manpower, and firepower, including heavy military equipment, artillery and air support, the in the 1.5-month conflict with the Armenians.

Azerbaijan, however, seems to have already started paying price of its sovereignty for the Turkish support in the war. On December 2, President Ilham Aliyev declared the establishment of the new national holiday ‘Victory Day’ in Azerbaijan. The holiday scheduled for November 10 was dedicated to the start of the implementation of the peace agreements in Karabakh, under which Armenian forces in fact accepted their defeat and agreed to withdraw from Agdam, Kalbajar and Lachin districts.However, a day later Baku was reminded by Ankara that November 10 is the Day of Remembrance of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of the Republic of Turkey. So, on December 3, the presidential administration of Azerbaijan changed its order and rescheduled the Azerbaijani national holiday for November 8. Let’s hope the Big Neo-Ottoman Brother is now satisfied. In other case, the Azerbaijani leadership will have to reschedule a few more national holidays and rename ministries to please it.

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If This Is the Way ‘Israel’ Monitors Hezbollah, Then It Better Brace Itself!

If This Is the Way ‘Israel’ Monitors Hezbollah, Then It Better Brace Itself!

By Fatimah Haydar

Beirut – It is no secret that the “Israeli” entity eyes Hezbollah, the Lebanese Resistance Group, closely. It monitors the group’s every move be it on the battle fields or its media outlets.

Recently, the “Israeli” news website Ynet reported that a Hezbollah drone infiltrated what the “Israelis” call their “territory” – occupied Palestine so to speak.

In its report, the news outlet was keen to reveal the aerial capability of the “Israeli” Occupation Forces [IOF] – which according to it was holding a military drill “to train for defense against drone attacks”. 

To make a long story short, let’s take a look at an excerpt from the report which is supposed to be a Breaking News material – a way the entity shows its settlers that it is always aware of the activities of Hezbollah.

The excerpt reads as follows:

“A UAV belonging to the Hezbollah ‘terror’ group infiltrated ‘Israeli’ territory on Thursday according to a report in the Al Nahar television channel considered close to the Iran-backed organization.”

“The infiltration was said to take place during the second day of an ‘IDF’ military exercise, to train for defense against drone attacks, taking place along the ‘Israel’-Lebanon border.”

If This Is the Way ‘Israel’ Monitors Hezbollah, Then It Better Brace Itself!

You’re probably wondering what’s wrong with these lines. Well, they’re perfectly correct grammatically and language-wise, but wrong in every sense of the word in core. A second reading of the paragraphs with a bit of knowledge on current events reveals the gaffes.

The “Israeli” military exercise Ynet was referring to was the 5-day drill dubbed the “Lethal Arrow” that began on Sunday, October 25 and ended on Thursday, October 29.

Now, according to the Ynet report, the Hezbollah drone infiltration took place on the “second day” of the IOF drills, which based on the dates we have mentioned earlier, should be on Monday, October 26 and not Thursday because that would be the last day of the drill.

But what’s worse is that if Ynet referred to Thursday, December 3 – which is a month and a couple of days after the “Lethal Arrow” drills – to be the day of infiltration! They should get their facts straight.

This is one.

The other error, which is more important, is that the report cited “Al Nahar television channel” which it said was “considered close to the Iran-backed organization” – i.e. Hezbollah.

First, Al-Nahar is not a TV channel; it is a Lebanese newspaper. Second, it is not affiliated to Hezbollah in any sense as Ynet stated.

So, if we were to be lenient on the media outlet, we would say that it was a typo; instead of typing the letter M, to cite Hezbollah-owned al-Manar Channel, the editor typed N instead. It’s a common mistake though, since on a QWERTY keyboard both letters M and N are next to each other.

However, it was not the al-Manar that reported the incident, but the Lebanese al-Akhbar newspaper. Al-Akhbar said that al-Manar will broadcast images taken by the reconnaissance plane.

This shows lack of professionalism on behalf of the “Israeli” outlet, attributing information to the wrong source. A mistake like this reveals how ignorant the enemy Hezbollah is dealing with. If not ignorant, indolent!

Perhaps it was a slip, perhaps it was intended; but I doubt the latter. Though, let’s not assume the worst! After all, no one is perfect! Not even the so-called invincible army.

If this is the way “Israel” and its media outlets monitor its enemies, then the “Israelis” better brace themselves because they are heading for a brick wall! No wonder why Hezbollah is always one step ahead.


تلميحٌ لردّ إيرانيّ؟ الحرب المقبلة لن تعرف القيود

 الناصرة – زهير أندراوس

زهير أندراوس نبض الوعي العربي

قالت دراسة صادرة عن مركز دراسات الأمن القومي التابع لجامعة تل أبيب إنّ التوتر المطوّل بين الجيش «الإسرائيلي» وحزب الله في الشمال يُمكن أنْ يُشير إلى أنّهما في خضمّ عدد من التحركات الخاطئة من أيام المعركة التي يمكن أنْ تتصاعد وتتحوّل إلى حرب، مع عدم وجود تحذير تقريباً من أنّ الجيش «الإسرائيلي» سيسمح للحزب بأنْ يُفاجئه، بحسب تعبيرها.

وأردفت الدراسة قائلةً إنّه في الوقت نفسه، تُواجِه «إسرائيل» أزمة كورونا وأزمة سياسية مستمرة، ممّا يؤدّي إلى تأخير تنفيذ العمليات الحيوية في بناء قوات الجيش «الإسرائيلي»، مع التركيز على الميزانية وشراء الطائرات وأنظمة القتال، وكذلك مخطط تدريب الجيش الذي أقرّته القيادة، أيْ أنّ عدم إقرار المستوى السياسيّ في تل أبيب الموازنة يُعيق خطط الجيش الإسرائيليّ، طبقاً للدراسة.

وشدّدّت الدراسة على أنّ الأزمة السياسية الداخليّة «الإسرائيليّة» أيضاً أوجدت أوجه قصور في الحوار المستمرّ بين الحكومة والجيش، معتبرةً أنّ هذا الحوار هو “عنصر حاسم في قدرة إسرائيل على اتخاذ القرارات، سواء في مجال بناء القوة أوْ في مجال استخدام القوّة، على حدٍّ سواء”.

وأوضحت الدراسة أنّه على الرغم من جائحة (كورونا) والأزمة السياسيّة الداخليّة في الدولة العبريّة، يجب أنْ يكون الجيش «الإسرائيلي» مستعداً للتصعيد والتدريب، حتى في مواجهة مخاطر كورونا، ليكون جاهزاً وحاضراً للحرب.

وأشارت الدراسة إلى أنّ الضرر المحتمل للتصعيد في الساحة الشمالية، والذي يفوق بكثير حجم الضرر الذي قد تلحقه حماس بـ «إسرائيل» في الجنوب، قد يجعل من الصعب على «إسرائيل» وحزب الله السيطرة على التطورات ومنعها من أنْ تصبح حملةً واسعة النطاق.

أمّا عن تفاصيل المعركة فقالت الدراسة إنّه إلى جانب القوة الجويّة، قد تحتاج «إسرائيل» إلى جهد بريّ تكميلي، عدواني وسريعٍ، إذْ انّه في المناورات البريّة التي أجراها الجيش الإسرائيليّ في السنوات الأخيرة تمّ اكتشاف ثغرتين رئيسيتين: الأولى، قدرة الردّ على إطلاق الصواريخ من قبل حزب الله، والثانية: مواجهة القذائف على الجبهة الداخليّة «الإسرائيليّة»، وفق الباحث الذي أعّد الدراسة.

واستذكرت الدراسة أنّه في محادثة جرت عشية المناورة الأخيرة في الشمال قال رئيس هيئة الأركان العامّة للجيش «الإسرائيلي» الجنرال أفيف كوخافي: “لا يمكننا تحقيق الانتصار على الأعداء دون مناوراتٍ، وبالتالي استعدّوا لإمكانية اندلاع الحرب غداً”، وفق تعبير القائد العسكريّ في جيش الاحتلال.

وأوضحت الدراسة أيضاً أنّ أعداء «إسرائيل» لن يأخذوا في حساباتهم وباء كورونا، أوْ القيود السياسيّة الأخرى، لذلك يجب على الجيش «الإسرائيلي» أنْ يكون على أهبة الاستعداد للمواجهة القادمة، وأنْ يهتّم بالجنود والضباط الذين خضعوا للحبس المنزليّ بسبب إصابتهم بـ كورونا، لكي يكونوا جاهزين للمعركة المقبلة، وذلك يشمل إشراكهم في جميع التدريبات التي يجريها الجيش استعداداً للحرب المقبلة، لأنّ هذه الخطوة تضمن أهليتهم للمشاركة في الحرب، فضلاً عن زيادة أهمية التدريب في نظرهم.

Mission Accomplished: Hezbollah Drone Flew over Galilee, Returned Safely «السهم الفتّاك» تفشل في رصد طائرة استطلاع المقاومة

 December 3, 2020

Hezbollah drone

Hezbollah drone flew over the occupied territories’ Galilee and returned safely to Lebanon despite high alert among the ranks of the Israeli occupation army last October, a report said on Thursday.

Lebanese Daily Al-Akhbar reported that a Hezbollah drone managed to enter the airspace of occupied Palestine on October 26 as the Israeli occupation army was on high alert and waging the so-called “Lethal Arrow” maneuver.

“The maneuver was accompanied with high activity by the Israeli air force,” the Lebanese daily said.

“One of the maneuver’s goals was to prevent drones from getting into the Palestinian airspace,” Al-Akhbar said, highlighting the paradox.

The drone managed to capture photos and footage of the occupied region of Galilee and then returned to its base in Lebanon safely, the daily revealed.

Al-Manar will broadcast the photos and scenes captured by the drone in the last episode of “The Second Liberation” documentary series.

Source: Al-Manar English Website and Al-Akhbar

“Israel’s Lethal Arrow” Drill Fails to Spot Hezbollah Reconnaissance Plane

“Israel’s Lethal Arrow” Drill Fails to Spot Hezbollah Reconnaissance Plane

By al-Akhbar Newspaper, Translated by Staff

On October 25, the “Israeli” army launched a massive five-day drill dubbed ‘Lethal Arrow’. They were simulating a multi-front war with a special focus on the northern front with Lebanon and Syria. Among the key objectives was the defeat of Hezbollah and to “prevent drones of any type and size from crossing the borders.” 

The exercise was accompanied by an active movement of “Israeli” warplanes and helicopters. 

On the second day of the drill, and at the height of the enemy’s mobilization, Hezbollah reconnaissance aircraft managed to infiltrate the airspace of occupied Palestinian over the Galilee region, before returning to its base in Lebanon without being detected by the “Israeli” army’s radars. 

Al-Akhbar learned that the Al-Manar channel will broadcast images taken by the Lebanese reconnaissance plane. 

The images are set to be aired Friday evening during the final episode of “The Secrets of the 2nd Liberation” series.

«السهم الفتّاك» تفشل في رصد طائرة استطلاع المقاومة

تقرير إيمان بشير 

الخميس 3 كانون الأول 2020

في 25 تشرين الأول الماضي، بدأ جيش العدو الإسرائيلي تنفيذ مناورة ضخمة على مدى خمسة أيام سمّاها «السهم الفتّاك»، حاكت حرباً متعدّدة الجبهات، خصوصاً على «الجبهة الشمالية» مع لبنان وسوريا، وبين أهدافها الرئيسية «هزيمة حزب الله». رافقت المناورة حركة ناشطة للطائرات الحربية والمروحية الإسرائيلية. في اليوم الثاني من المناورة التي كان بين أهدافها أيضاً «منع منظومات طائرات الدرونز من أي نوع وأي حجم من تجاوز الحدود»، وفي ذروة استنفار العدو، تمكنت طائرة استطلاع تابعة للمقاومة من اختراق الأجواء الفلسطينية المحتلة فوق منطقة الجليل، قبل أن تعود إلى قاعدتها في لبنان من دون أن تكتشفها رادارات الجيش الإسرائيلي. وعلمت «الأخبار» أن قناة «المنار» ستبث، في الحلقة الأخيرة من سلسلة «أسرار التحرير الثاني»، مساء غد، مشاهد التقطتها طائرة الاستطلاع اللبنانية.

Terribly Tired, “Israeli” Army Hides under Cloth along Lebanese Border

Terribly Tired, “Israeli” Army Hides under Cloth along Lebanese Border

By Staff

The “Israeli” army appears to have exhausted all camouflage options. It’s now resorted to using mere cloth along the Palestinian-Lebanese border. Settlers in the Metula settlement noticed enemy soldiers extending a large canvas over the border fence. The canvas hosts a painting of the sky and the local landscape.

“Israel’s” Channel 12 website indicated that the surprising move is aimed at camouflaging the fence or hiding the “Israeli” territory behind it. But the settlers there are suspicious.

According to the site, the occupation army recently completed the construction of a new fence in the area, in places where construction of the concrete wall was halted.

“Over the years, the ‘residents’ of Metula have gotten used to Hezbollah placing a kind of large canvas with messages along the fences on the Lebanese side of the frontier, and this is the first time that the ‘Israeli’ army hung similar signs on the fence,” the website stated.

Gil, an “Israeli” student who lives in Metula, told the website that she arrived morning to see the work getting underway and was disappointed when she discovered that this is what is happening in the area.

“It really interferes with the landscape scenery. It is ugly and also unnecessary,” she said.

Another student stated that “in Metula we live in peace with the fence, and we even have the view of Wadi al-Oyoun behind it. Everybody knows that there is a fence, and there is no need to hide it. Whoever believes that this will help prevent a retaliatory operation by Hezbollah, should know that every time I take out the garbage, it will make me laugh.”

The website stated that Zionist officials had previously opposed continuing the construction of a concrete wall in the northern and eastern part of the settlement. In the past, they hung a camouflage net on the fence that helped hide “civilian and military” activities. 

However, following the martyrdom of a Hezbollah fighter in Syria last summer and the party’s threat to retaliate, soldiers were prevented from approaching the area and even set up many checkpoints to prevent the entry of military vehicles and soldiers in uniform until recently when activities returned to normal, and on Wednesday, colorful cloth was hung.

For his part, the spokesman for the occupation army said, “The army placed a new camouflage canvas in the area of the Metula settlement instead of the old camouflage network that was in place, and there is talk about installing a routine infrastructure that serves the army’s activities by taking into account the civilian element.”

Nasrallah: We celebrate Trump’s defeat without illusions about Biden, and we stay ready for war

Date: 23 November 2020

Author: lecridespeuples

Speech by Hezbollah Secretary General Sayed Hassan Nasrallah on November 11, 2020, celebrating Hezbollah’s “Martyrs Day”, which honors all martyrs of the Resistance.

On November 11, 1982, the largest resistance action in the history of the Israeli-Arab struggle took place, when the martyrdom of 19-year-old fighter Ahmad Qassir killed more than 100 occupying Israeli officers and soldiers by detonating their headquarters in the Lebanese city of Tyre. We transcribe below two sections of the speech devoted to the recent Israeli military maneuvers and US elections.

Source: https://video.moqawama.org/details.php?cid=1&linkid=2183

Translation: resistancenews.org


Israeli military maneuvers

[…] The second issue (I want to mention) is the Israeli military maneuvers which took place a few days ago, and lasted from Sunday (1st) to Thursday (November 5). Obviously I will not get into the details of these maneuvers, its stages, its objectives, etc. It would take too long. But I will confine myself to the following points.

Of course, these were massive maneuvers, one of the biggest and most important Israeli maneuvers (in history). They are similar to those that took place in 2017 simultaneously in northern occupied Palestine and in the Golan Heights, which they consider to be a single front: these maneuvers were as large or perhaps a little larger (than those in November 2020). It was pretty much the same (exercise) in both maneuvers (i.e. simulating a Hezbollah attack). Of course, during the maneuvers, there were analyzes, threats and clues (according to which) Israel could take advantage of this (maximum) state of readiness and this enormous concentration of forces in northern occupied Palestine and in the Golan Heights to launch an operation against Lebanon or against Syria, to say the least [there was also talk of a possible attack on Iran]. There were analyzes, assumptions of this kind, and of course, these maneuvers were followed with the greatest attention in Israel, although the Lebanese cared little about them, except for Hezbollah who followed it all closely. The enemy Prime Minister came to visit (the forces engaged in these maneuvers), as did the Minister of Defense, and the Chief of Staff and other officials were there throughout the week, and they made countless statements.

With regard to these maneuvers, I want to make a couple of brief comments.

Israel has moved from permanent aggression to a defensive posture

First, when you consider these maneuvers, what was one of their main purposes? They announced it themselves, I’m not talking about secret information. One of the main objectives is that they simulated an invasion by the forces of the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon (Hezbollah) against the Israeli positions and settlements in Galilee, and the purpose of these maneuvers was for the Israeli army to recover these positions and these settlements, meaning to expel the Resistance forces from them, and launch another response in the border region. It is not about invading (Lebanon) and reaching I do not know where, but simply about organizing a (limited) response in the border area, less far than the Israeli security zone of yesteryear [from 1985 to 2000, Israel occupied all of South Lebanon, in a continuous enclave 10 to 20 kilometers wide]. This is what these maneuvers consisted of, and they involved the air force, infantry, artillery, etc.

What I want to emphasize about this, coming back to what the (Hezbollah) martyrs accomplished (by their struggle and their sacrifice), one of the great achievements of the martyrs is (the following): in 2017, Israel organized military maneuvers where, from the first days, it was all about launching defensive measures, setting up a defensive plan to protect its positions and its settlements in Galilee, in the north of occupied Palestine, (against a Hezbollah attack). And again in 2020, Israel is carrying out similar maneuvers, despite the economic situation, the coronavirus, the difficulties, etc. What does all this prove? This proves that the Lebanese Resistance, for the first time (in the history of the Arab-Israeli struggle), has shifted the Israeli army from an offensive to a defensive position. This demonstrates the power of the Resistance. In the old days, if anyone (among the Arab-Muslim rulers) claimed to invade or attack Israel, upset the equations (in force), enter occupied Palestine (as a retaliation in case) Israel invaded our territory, Israel would laugh (at these empty claims) and mock them. You remember that in previous wars Israel behaved as if Lebanon was negligible, and (considered) that a single musical band was enough to defeat it. This Resistance in Lebanon, the martyrs of this Resistance, the mujaheedeen of this Resistance of which “some have reached their end [martyrdom], and others are still waiting [and they have not changed at all (in their commitment)” (Quran, 33, 23)], have brought Lebanon to a stage where the enemy regards us in a very different way. The enemy is obsessed with the idea of ​​an attack from Lebanon, and when he thinks of attacking Lebanon himself, his mind immediately goes to destruction with planes, artillery, missiles, and he does not think of any invasion or occupation of vast territories, because his ambitions on the ground are very limited. And more so, he switched to a defensive way of thinking. This is why he has designed defensive plans to protect his positions, his settlements, the region of Galilee. He keeps rethinking these plans, he has been making maneuvers in this direction since 2017, and in their light, he is making amendments, and he insists on carrying out new maneuvers in 2020. This is a very important point to know the weight of Lebanon, of the Lebanese Resistance and our strength in the calculations of the enemy. It’s something he would never have thought of in the past. And of course, this must lead us to make exact calculations when thinking about the equations of force in Lebanon, whether it is about negotiations over maritime borders or points of contention over the land border, the equation of deterrence, the protection equation, etc.

An admission of failure and unpreparedness

The second point is the enemy’s insistence on carrying out these 2020 maneuvers, and the fact that the enemy army’s Chief of staff has declared that even if 1,000 soldiers must be infected with the Covid- 19, he was determined to hold the maneuvers. This confirms another truth long evoked by Israeli generals after the 2006 war against Lebanon and after the 2014 Gaza war: they themselves say that the Israeli army, the Israeli infantry is suffering from a real and deep crisis. There is a crisis of preparation, a crisis of officers, soldiers and combatants at the personal, psychological, moral level, a crisis of the (fighting) spirit, a crisis of confidence in officers and leaders, problems of discipline, (a lack of willingness to) advance (in the battlefield), to sacrifice oneself, to go to the front line, etc. This is why in all their maneuvers, the Israelis provide soldiers and officers with every guarantee of security, assuring them that nothing will happen to them, and that their advance will be secure [as if there was such a thing as a safe war]. This is the result of the enormous flaws and weaknesses in the spirit and morale of the troops of the IDF ground forces. This is why Israel needs these maneuvers to remedy this situation, to give its soldiers confidence in themselves, to restore their morale, to give them motivation, guarantees, assure them that they are capable (of facing Hezbollah) with their plan and maneuvers. This is a real crisis affecting the Israeli infantry today.

Regarding the navy, we know that its field of action is (very) limited. In 2006, a single missile took the entire Israeli navy out of the war equation, when we hit the Sa’ar 5 (corvette). And in case of war in the future, the Israeli navy will be unable to achieve the slightest real accomplishment. And as for the Air Force, we do not underestimate nor demean it, and we recognize that it is one of the most powerful air forces in the region. And the United States gives Israel (everything) without limit, so that all developments in air capacity are open to the enemy. But this does not constitute a guarantee, it does not protect the Zionist project in the region, it does not even protect (the survival of) the usurping entity. All the recent wars and battles have confirmed that the Air force alone is incapable of shaping victory, from the 2006 war to the wars in Gaza, all the wars that have taken place in our region, as well as the war that is entering its 6th year in Yemen. All of these wars demonstrate that air power alone is incapable of shaping victory or winning a battle. It is the ground forces that are essential and decisive, whether in defense, attack or victory. Today the IDF is going through real crises in this regard, and we must build (and consolidate our strength) on it.

Hezbollah was on high alert during these maneuvers

Last point concerning these maneuvers, and that I wish the Lebanese and the people to know clearly: because of the assumptions, the analyzes and the possibilities (of Israeli attack against Lebanon or Syroa), I want to say, without creating a state of terror in Lebanon, but I must reveal this fact: the Islamic Resistance was, from Saturday (October 31st), that is before the start of the maneuvers, until the days of the maneuvers, and until after the end of the maneuvers, or after Thursday (November 5), until Friday and Saturday, we were on high alert. Some Resistance units in Lebanon were on full alert, 100%, and others were 75% ready. And at the level of organization, management and control, all the commanders were at their posts. Of course, Israel knew this, and we wanted them to know it, because what mattered to us was to clearly send the following message: we are watchful, we are ready, we are on alert, our finger is on the trigger, and if you are thinking of engaging in any stupid act, any aggression, our response will be ready, quick and immediate. In Syria too… And in Lebanon, of course, we did all this for 7 to 8 days without the Lebanese and the Lebanese people, the villages and the towns feeling the slightest thing that could disturb them, worry them or arouse fear. This is one of the strengths of the Popular Resistance, which is precise, level-headed, measured, far from all excesses and bluster, serious, dedicated and sincere.

Likewise, in Syria, according to my information, the readiness measures of the Syrian leadership and the armed forces were maximum, as well as for their allies on the ground. The message to the enemy was clear: in front of you there are people ready and willing to fight, people neither weakened nor ready to surrender, and unaffected by all the events happening in our region. So much for this point.

US elections

My third point is the US elections. I speak quickly to have time to discuss all the issues. The whole world followed… Of course, I will not do an (exhaustive) analysis on the US elections, but I will talk about what concerns us and concerns our people, our region and our Axis (of Resistance). The whole world has been following what happened and what is happening now in the US presidential elections. And that’s something normal, because the outcome of the elections will influence the whole world. I would like to make several comments on this subject.

A paper Empire and a junk Democracy

First, the unfolding of the US elections, the speeches of the candidates and the contradictory and invective election campaigns, the media hype, etc., I consider that more than ever, all of this has shown the (real and eloquent) image of a number of truths and realities in the United States, whether at the level of the political system, of the forces and parties, and of the people. The peoples of the world, the peoples of our region and all of us need to pay attention (and think thouroughly about these realities). Because in the end, these United States are a global calamity. In our eyes, the US are a problem for all the peoples of the world, both for their friends & allies and for their enemies, both at the same time.

My first point is a simple call to look closely at the numbers and data that were provided during the election campaign, to think about them and learn the lessons, in order to know what these United States really are, because there are people who present them to us as the greatest example that our Arab and Muslim countries and Third World countries (in general) should follow. So let’s see what is the truth of this (alleged) most prominent model. (Let us seek) its truth in its values, in its actions, in its habits, in the results of its behavior and practices, (let us seek) the truth of its democracy, the truth of its political system, the truth of the behavior of its authorities with its people, in its different (ethnico-social) components. All these questions require thought on our part, as (staggering) numbers have been given, incredible things have been seen, and (striking) scenes are visible on TV channels and social media, be it everything that has to do with the economic and financial situation, the scale of the debts weighing on the American treasury –we talk a lot about the debts of Lebanon, but look at those of the United States–, the social situation and the standard of living of tens of millions of inhabitants of the United States… We see images on television of very modern cities, with very modern streets, in which we see people living in makeshift camps, left and right, washing themselves in the streets, and having no home, no social security, etc. Either way, these are staggering numbers, whether talking about the number of people infected with the coronavirus [over 11 million], the number of people affected by terminal illnesses –Biden spoke of huge numbers a few days ago–, mental and nervous illnesses, drug addicts, the scale of the various forms of criminality in American society –murders, injuries, incidents, shootings, thefts, rapes, etc. –, the number of prisoners in jails, the extent of corruption in state administration and political officials, etc. This is (the reality of) the United States that some present to us as (a model of) freedom, democracy, justice, development, prosperity, etc., etc., etc. (Not to mention the) fundamental racism that has been brought to light by the events of recent months. All this deserves –I don’t have time to give the figures and talk about them in detail, others will be able to do it, and everyone can find out by consulting the data, the archives, the images, the evidence, etc.; these are not empty statements from an enemy of the United States who would come and make false accusations, they are their own statements, their own figures and their own statistics as to their situation, their worries, their real domestic ills and problems; and this is the priority which may be imposed on the new administration. This is the first thing that appeared during these elections.

Allegations of electoral fraud are a gross heist attempt

The second point is the humiliation of the (so-called) US democracy that Washington calls on the whole world to take as an example, asserting the primacy of people’s decision, of elections, etc. If the US administration itself, which today is President Trump’s and also his entire administration –because we cannot say that he has an (unprecedented) state of mind, that he is mad, resolved to keep his throne, etc.: the entire Republican Party (supports him). If two (Republicans) Senators congratulated Biden, (it should be noted that) it is the whole Republican Party, officially, all its leaders and executives, all its echelons who support the electoral battle that Trump is pursuing, and who do not recognize the results. What is this (pseudo-)democracy? I remind you of one thing: as (was stated by) all the people who followed (these elections), the special media envoys, even those from the channels close to Trump, during these elections, some citizens voted by mail, some voted early –as did Trump himself– and finally some voted (in person) on election day. When (the vote-counting agents) begin their tally, they count first the votes cast on election day, then the early votes, and finally the mail votes. It is common knowledge that the majority of mail votes are in favor of the Democrats. For early votes, it’s mixed. For direct votes on election day, the majority is in favor of the Republicans. As soon as the vote count of election day ballots ended, Trump rose up and exclaimed, “Stop the vote count! Stop the vote count!” Why? Because he considered himself the winner, hands down, which is natural when only the votes cast on election day are counted. But when you count the 70 million –if not more– early votes, and the mail votes, that will certainly change the outcome. He therefore wants to throw the voices of tens of millions of citizens into oblivion in order to be able to declare “I am the winner, period”. And he has declared himself the winner, and does not acknowledge the results, considering that all that is happening is just a (large) fraud. And the (whole) Republican Party stands behind all this. It would be wrong to say that it is only the action of one person, of a fool, feverish, nervous man, etc., no! And now we don’t know where the Trump administration and the Republican Party want to take all of the United States if they maintain this line. (Let’s keep all this farce in mind) so that no one comes (berating us) with (the alleged virtues of) Western democracy or American democracy, nor present the US as a Master in matters of elections and respect for the vote of the people and the will of the people, neither inside the United States, nor outside.

Israel will always be the main concern of any US administration

Third, what matters to us today about the new administration –I will speak later about the two remaining months of this Trump administration, along with (our) psychological and emotional reaction (to Trump’s defeat)–, (about) the larger question of the new administration (which will take power in January 2021), (it must be emphasized that) in our region in particular –because what can be predicted for other peoples of the world, other states and governments, it is their own assessment to make–, but as far as we are concerned, our greatest calamity is that in our region, for a long time, and for decades, US policies in our region are an Israeli policy. The basis (of thought and action) is Israel, (and all that matters is how to ensure) the strength of Israel, the empowerment of Israel, the security of Israel, the superiority of Israel. It is one of the constants of US policy, whether it is Democrats or Republicans, Bush, Clinton, Obama, Trump or Biden: whoever (the US President) is, they all rush and compete to see who supports Israel the most, who covers Israel the most, who defends Israel the most, who protects Israel the most, who strengthens Israel the most, who supports Israel the most.

Therefore, as far as we are concerned, things are not going to change. Maybe their policy towards Russia, China, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela or whatever will change. But here, in our region, for everything that has to do with the usurping entity of occupied Palestine, and for the whole area that includes Iran, Iraq, Syria, the Gulf, Yemen, North Africa, this whole Arab-Islamic region, as far as the United States are concerned, the only fundamental constant, or at least the main one if it is not the only one, is Israel and the domination of Israel. Therefore, building promising hopes in fundamental and strategic changes (in the policies of a Biden administration is futile): let no one be deluded or lie to himself, nor anything like that.

It is true that on certain details (we can expect some minor changes)… For example, I absolutely do not consider as likely the hypothesis that the Biden administration backtracks on the recognition (of all) of Al-Quds (Jerusalem) as an integral part of the Zionist entity and the eternal capital of Israel, or moves the US embassy in Al-Quds back to Tel Aviv, or no longer recognizes the Golan as Israeli territory… (All of these Trump steps won’t be reversed). But it is possible that concerning the settlements, the West Bank, the question of the two states and their borders, these are details (on which a margin of maneuver is possible). But even in these details, the core principle and top priority will remain how to make Israel as strong as possible, as dominant as possible, superior to all, etc. So let’s not waste time counting on the new (Biden) administration, imagining various prospects (of a new US foreign policy in the Middle East), and luring ourselves into dreams and illusions.

Axis of Resistance welcomes Trump’s humiliating defeat

Of course, emotionally, there’s no doubt –and I’m talking about my personal feelings here– that when you look at the Trump administration, the Trump government, it turns out to be the worst government (in US history), or, if not the worst, it is one of the worst US governments in history. This government was the most heinous, the vilest, the most despotic, the most arrogant, the most contemptuous of its friends and allies –for example, there was a difference in the way Trump behaved with Saudi Arabia [repeated humiliations], and his way of addressing Iran: when he addressed Iran, he was more balanced, more measured, more cautious; and he will step down from power with bitterness over not having been able to find a single Iranian official to answer him on the phone. It was the most tyrannical, the most despotic, the most arrogant, the most criminal, the most terrorist government… Such was the Trump administration.

Let’s remember what he did for 4 years. For 4 years, he put the whole world on the brink of war, whether he (deliberately) played on the level of psychological warfare, (on the permanent threat) of the brink of the abyss, or whether he was serious (and willing to go to war). Against North Korea, he brought things to the brink of war. Likewise with China, with Iran, with Venezuela, with Cuba, with Syria, with many places in the world. He brought the whole world to the brink of war! As far as states and peoples are concerned, he has intensified blockades, acts of manifest aggression and the most explicit interference in internal affairs… Of course, we recognize in Trump a very important quality, which is that he showed the true face of the United States. This is their true face. Arrogance, tyranny, (permanent) aggression, despotism, imperialism, terrorism, bestiality, crime, (mass) murder, corruption… This is what Trump showed. His predecessors wore make-up and measured their words, but his quality is that he showed the US as they were to the peoples of the world, (without wearing a mask or using false rhetoric).

Therefore, when one sees the long list of his crimes, such as, in Palestine, the attribution of Al-Quds (Jerusalem) to Israel as its eternal capital, the relocation of the US embassy (from Tel Aviv to Al -Quds), the granting of the (Syrian occupied) Golan (to Israel), as well as the Shebaa farms (occupied Lebanese territory granted to Israel by Trump), the strangulation he exerted against the Palestinians, whether the Palestinian Authority, the PLO, the Palestinian people… But despite that, Trump was defeated, and I will come back to it. In Iran, he imposed the most severe sanctions against a country of 80 or 85 million people, the year of the coronavirus, not to mention the (constant) threats of war, and (a permanent flirtation) with the edge of the abyss! Likewise in Syria, constant threats of war, and Caesar sanctions and more blockades. Open support for the Saudi-Emirati war against Yemen and the oppressed people of Yemen. He has revived sedition in Iraq, and is attempting to revive sedition in Lebanon. He tried to overthrow the state of Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea, etc. (He has spread blood and chaos) everywhere, to the point that it is (almost impossible) to count his crimes!

Trump’s foreign policy is a monumental failure

But of course, if we are to give a title to all of these actions, it is failure. He failed in all these attempts! He failed to break the will of the Palestinian people, and that is why today no one talks about the Deal of the Century anymore. Where did it go? In the past, when the Deal of the Century was taking shape, I said it was based on 3 pillars: 1. Trump, 2. Netanyahu and 3. (Saudi Crown Prince) Bin Salman. Today, with the grace of God, Trump will go. Either he will leave or he will take the United States in his downfall if he does not recognize the results. The 2nd pillar, Netanyahu, is now in a worse situation than ever. Even with Trump’s presence, he was at the lowest point in his entire political history, and he’s doing even worse now. The same goes for Bin Salman, who is perhaps the most worried of all among the leaders of the region. Who knows if Biden will live up to his election promises to punish Bin Salman and indict him for Khashoggi’s murder and (gruesome) dismemberment with a saw, end US support for the Saudi war in Yemen and stop selling him weapons… If Biden keeps his election promises, Mohammad Bin Salman has every reason to be very worried. So there is a defeated pillar, which will leave the scene (Trump), and two shaken pillars, ready to collapse (Netanyahu and Bin Salman). The likelihood of fall is greatest for Netanyahu, because the political system of the usurping entity (racialist democracy) is different from that of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (absolute monarchy). And this Deal of the Century will disappear with its pillars. The will of the Palestinian people has not been broken despite all the difficulties, the state of siege, the punishments, the suffering. Iran’s will has not been broken, despite the harshest sanctions (in history) and the harsh conditions caused by the coronavirus. Syria’s will has not been broken. The Iraqis are struggling to defeat the daily sedition that is manufactured at home [via US attempts to revive ISIS, etc.]. In Lebanon, we have defeated sedition. I will speak (in more detail) about Lebanon in the last part (of my speech). In Venezuela, (Trump) failed, he failed in Cuba, he failed in North Korea, he failed to subdue China, and he failed, failed and failed (everywhere). Overall, the headline (of Trump’s foreign policy) is (universal) failure.

In the Middle East, no one will regret the assassin of Qassem Soleimani

That’s why I’ll draw two conclusions from this (short) presentation. The first conclusion is that yes, on a personal level, I am happy with the departure, the fall, the humiliating fall of Trump. We don’t care about the new administration, they are all the same, (US foreign policy) will not change. But we have every reason to be happy (about Trump’s defeat), especially given the crime that I left last in the (long list) of his crimes, the (biggest) crime of our time that Trump committed by assassinating the Grand General Hajj Qassem Soleimani, and the Grand General Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, his (multiple) assaults against Iraq and Iran, and the fact that he publicly bragged about this crime. Even during his election campaign I was following (his speeches), on several occasions he pointed out (with pride) to this heinous crime he committed. Therefore, on an emotional level, we have every reason –no one can stop anyone (from rejoicing)– to rejoice in this humiliating defeat of Trump, inflicted by his own people. We don’t pretend we brought him down. It was his (own) people who brought him down. This (American) people whom Trump also demeaned and humiliated, as he strove to humiliate his allies and friends, and continued his aggression against peoples around the world. So much for the emotional level.

Trump demonstrated the weakness of the United States

But at a practical level, we need to know, through our assessment of these four years (of Trump’s rule), that under such an aggressive (US) government, having such a high level of tyranny and willingness to enter into war… Because it is obvious that the possibility of the Trump administration going to war was higher and will remain higher than that of the next administration. This administration was very inclined to go to war. They had no caution, no limits. Despite this, our peoples and the Axis of Resistance have persisted in their determination (to resist), and have succeeded in thwarting (Trump’s plans), and in preventing this project from materializing and achieving (its goals). It means that our will is stronger than their tyranny, stronger than their blockade, stronger than their arrogance. This means that (despite everything) Trump or his government can say, or (even) the government to come, the USA are not a manifest destiny, and the peoples of the world, the governments of the world and the oppressed of the world can stand up and say “No!” (to Washington’s diktats), (and successfully resist) whatever the consequences. And in the end, it is (the peoples of the world) who are victorious. And as for him (Trump) who fought them, assaulted them, and lashed out at them, it is he who will be defeated, humiliated and broken. This must also be one of the lessons of these elections.

Anything can happen in the last two months of the Trump administration

The last thing I want to say about the election concerns what’s left of the last two months (of the Trump administration). Because it has been said in the media that top Pentagon officials have expressed their fears (of a war before Trump’s term ends), as has the Speaker of the House of Representatives (Nancy Pelosi), and other US officials in the region. Many said that by sacking his Secretary of State for Defense (Mark Esper), replacing him with another (Christopher C. Miller), who became Acting Secretary of State for Defense, he was preparing to do something for the past two months. But what? This is a big question that torments the whole world. I don’t know what he can do in those two months, but anything is possible. With someone like Trump, you have to expect anything. It may be that this sacking was just an impulsive act due to his injured ego, because he figured that Secretary of State Esper was not always docile, that he was opposed to certain things that Trump wanted to do and had prepared his resignation letter, and therefore Trump ate Esper at lunch before Esper ate Trump at dinner. It is entirely possible, it would not be surprising (on the part of a narcisstic buffoon like Trump).

But it is also possible that this move has to do with major and dangerous decisions Trump is about to make. Among these major and dangerous decisions, the whole world immediately thought of the possibility of action outside the United States. Because there are two hypotheses. Either he sacked Esper because last time, when there were (massive) demonstrations (in the United States), and Trump wanted to send the army to suppress the demonstrators, this Secretary of State threatened to resign as far as I can remember, or at least he was opposed to the intervention of the army, I am sure he was against it. I heard he threatened to quit. And maybe Trump saw that one of the reasons for his defeat was that he couldn’t put an end to (these protests) once and for all in recent months, due to (the expectation of dangerous) internal repercussions (if the army had intervened). And it is well known that the main reasons for Trump’s downfall are domestic reasons. Maybe Trump blames Esper for his defeat, and takes revenge on him by punishing him like that. But on the other hand, Esper’s sacking may have been due to Trump’s willingness to use US armed forces inside the US (to stay in power), it’s a possible hypothesis. And the other assumption is (that Trump is going to make a major and dangerous decision) outside the United States: the Republican Party, the far right and their ally Israel (may be thinking) that they should do now something important in the Middle East that they haven’t been able to do in these 4 years, and that they want to catch up in the last two months. This is also a possibility. I have no preference (to favor either of these hypotheses), it takes analysis and these are new things that have just come out, but there may be nothing (serious behind it all), it may be a domestic matter and it may be that something (big) is brewing outside (and the main assumption would be an attack against Iran). Everything is possible.

See the New York Times on November 16th: Trump Sought Options for Attacking Iran

Resistance Axis remains on high alert, ready for any US-Israeli war

Within the Resistance Axis, states, governments, rulers, Presidents, Resistance factions, and Resistance Axis peoples, to say the least, because we are part of it, I call them all to vigilance, to be wakeful, to be careful. In everything we say, in everything we do, in everything we follow (closely), we must be attentive and watchful, take our precautions (and prepare for anything), because that is what wisdom and reason require from us. We must imagine the worst, even if nothing should happen, and be prepared to face it. We must be on high alert during these two months, hoping that with the grace of God they will end well. We must also stand at a high level of preparedness, ready to face any danger, any aggression, any harm, and pay back blow for blow and even more if the imbecility of the United States or Israel goes as far as something like that (a military attack). […]

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مناورة الجبهة الشماليّة: قوات الرضوان في الجليل… وآلاف الصواريخ في سماء فلسطين


علي حيدر 

الثلاثاء 3 تشرين الثاني 2020

مناورة الجبهة الشماليّة: قوات الرضوان في الجليل... وآلاف الصواريخ في سماء فلسطين
(أ ف ب )

قد يكون إجراء المناورات الكبرى للجيوش، بما فيها جيش العدو الإسرائيلي، جزءاً من برنامج روتيني. إلا أن هناك أكثر من عامل مستجد داخلي وإقليمي يؤكد أن إجراء مناورة «السهم القاتل» الكبرى، الأسبوع الفائت، في شمال فلسطين المحتلة، وفي ضوء السيناريو الذي انطلقت منه، ينطوي على أبعاد ورسائل مُحدَّدة تتصل بأكثر من سياق داخلي وإقليمي أيضاً. فما هي السياقات التي أملت على قيادة العدو إجراء مناورة كبرى، تحاكي نشوب حرب متعددة الساحات، وترتكز على مواجهة حزب الله والجبهة الشمالية؟ وما هي الرسائل الكامنة في تبنّي الجيش سيناريو مواجهة قوات الرضوان التابعة لحزب الله، على أرض فلسطين، ومواجهة آلاف الصواريخ التي تتساقط عليها من عدة جبهات ودول في الوقت نفسه؟

المؤشر الأول إزاء خلفية إجراء المناورة يكمن في ما نقلته صحيفة «يديعوت أحرونوت» عن رئيس أركان الجيش أفيف كوخافي، الذي أعلن في مداولات داخلية أنه ينبغي إجراء المناورة، حتى لو كانت ستؤدي الى إصابة 1000 جندي بوباء الكورونا. وبرر موقفه بالقول لأنه «لا خيار بديل».

المسلّم به أن مناورة بهذا الحجم ووفق السيناريو الذي انطلقت منه، وفي ظل ما تشهده «إسرائيل» والمنطقة، من انتشار الوباء، هي بالتأكيد نتيجة تقدير وضع أجرته القيادة العسكرية. وخلصت في ضوئه الى بلورة قرار المناورة التي كان بالإمكان نظرياً تأخيرها عدة أشهر، وخاصة أن آخر مناورة مشابهة كانت قبل أكثر من سنتين. يعني ذلك، أنها نتاج مخاوف تهيمن على مؤسسة القرار السياسي في تل أبيب من سيناريوات قد تكون المنطقة مقبلة عليها، والمطلوب إزاءها رفع مستوى الاستعداد لأشدّها خطورة بالنسبة إلى «إسرائيل»، وخاصة أن من المهام التقليدية للمؤسسة العسكرية الإعداد لتوسيع نطاق الخيارات أمام القيادة السياسية.

منشأ تقدير المخاطر الكامنة في تطورات البيئة الإقليمية، على «الأمن القومي الإسرائيلي» في هذه المرحلة، يتجسد في فشل الرهان على مفاعيل العقوبات الأميركية التي كان ينبغي أن تؤدي، بحسب تقدير معهد أبحاث الأمن القومي لعام 2020، الى انتفاضة الشعب الإيراني، أو حرب أميركية تسقط نظام الجمهورية الإسلامية، أو خضوعه عبر الجلوس الى طاولة المفاوضات وفق الشروط الأميركية. إلا أن أياً من هذه السيناريوات لم يتحقق. بل ولم تؤدّ أيضاً الى تراجع الدعم العسكري الذي تقدمه لحزب الله ولبقيّة قوى المقاومة في المنطقة، وصولاً الى الامتناع عن إظهار أي مرونة تجاه القضايا الأساسية في المنطقة.
فشل الرهان على العقوبات يُعدّ استراتيجياً. وهو وضع «إسرائيل» وبقية حلفاء الولايات المتحدة أمام مسارات كانت مستبعدة جداً قبل أكثر من سنتين. وفرض عليهم البحث عن خيارات بديلة إضافية لاحتواء المسار التصاعدي لقدرات محور المقاومة، بالرغم من الهجوم الأميركي الذي لا يزال متواصلاً، بدءاً من إيران، مروراً بالعراق وسوريا، وصولاً الى لبنان.
بالموازاة، تبدّد الرهان الإسرائيلي أيضاً على المسار الذي انطلق في لبنان منذ 17 تشرين الأول من العام الماضي. إذ رأت فيه تل أبيب ــــ بصرف النظر عن المطالب المحقة التي رفعها مشاركون فيه ــــ فرصة مثالية لتحقيق مستويين من النتائج: عزل حزب الله سياسياً وحكومياً، وتجريد الحزب من جمهوره، وفرض قيود على خياراته وعلى تطور قدراته.

في المقابل، عمد حزب الله في ظل تفاقم الوضعين المالي والاقتصادي الى إظهار التصميم على تثبيت معادلة الردع التي تحمي لبنان والمقاومة من التهديد الإسرائيلي. وتجلّى ذلك، في تصميمه على الرد على استشهاد أحد مقاوميه في محيط مطار دمشق الدولي قبل أكثر من 100 يوم. وما يُضفي على هذا التصميم أهمية استثنائية في هذه المرحلة تحديداً، أن السياق الداخلي اللبناني يُمثِّل في المنظور الإسرائيلي فرصة يمكن الرهان عليها من أجل فرض قيود على حزب الله لدى دراسة خيارات الرد على اعتداءات إسرائيلية محددة، وهو ما يغري مؤسسة القرار في تل أبيب لتوسيع نطاق الاعتداءات التي تشنها في سوريا الى لبنان، والتأسيس أيضاً لتغيير المعادلة الداخلية في لبنان.

ليس أمراً عابراً أن تنطلق المناورة من سيناريو اقتحام قوات الرضوان (قوات النخبة في المقاومة) منطقة الجليل في شمال فلسطين المحتلة. وأن تكون مهمة الجيش الأولى صدّ هذا الاقتحام، ومن ثم الانتقال الى مرحلة المبادرة ــــ الرد، كما كشف الجيش عن ذلك، ونقلته التقارير الإعلامية الإسرائيلية. وكذلك التدرب على مواجهة سيناريو التعرض «لأسراب من الصواريخ الجوالة والطائرات المسيّرة الإيرانية التي هاجمتنا من سوريا ومن لبنان ومن دولتين» أخريين، يبدو أنهما العراق واليمن، بحسب ما أشارت الى ذلك تقارير أخرى. واستناداً الى سوابق يخشى العدو تكرارها بنسخ أشد خطورة، تبنى جيش الاحتلال أيضاً سيناريو تعرّض «إسرائيل» لهجوم صاروخي «مشابه للهجوم الذي تعرّضت له منشآت أرامكو في السعودية، لكن مضروباً بألف». بمعنى أن تتعرض «إسرائيل»، بحسب ما أكد المعلق العسكري في القناة «13»، ألون بن ديفيد، الى «آلاف الصواريخ الجوالة والطائرات المسيرة».

سيناريو المناورة يكشف أيضاً الدور الردعي الذي نجحت المقاومة في تحقيقه

تعني هذه السيناريوات العملانية، التي شكلت منطلق العدو في المناورة، أنها مبنية على فرضية تدحرج التطورات في المنطقة نحو السيناريو الأخطر. وهو ما يعيدنا الى إقرار قيادة العدو بفشل رهاناته، بدءاً من إيران، وصولاً الى لبنان. ويكشف سيناريو المناورة في هذه المرحلة بالذات عمق حضور خيار حزب الله باقتحام منطقة الجليل، لدى القيادتين السياسية والعسكرية. وأن حزب الله لا يزال يملك التصميم والقدرة على تنفيذ ذلك، وأن ما يشهده لبنان من تطورات داخلية لم ينجح في تبديد هذه المخاطر، إذا ما بادرت «إسرائيل» إلى ما يرى حزب الله أنه ينبغي الرد عليه بهذا المستوى.

الأهم في هذا السياق، هو أن سيناريو المناورة يكشف أيضاً الدور الردعي الذي نجحت المقاومة في تحقيقه، وأبرز تجلّياته حضوره لدى قيادة العدو التي ستضطر الى أن تأخذه بالحسبان لدى دراسة خياراتها العدوانية. وهو ما ساهم في تعزيز قوة ردع المقاومة في لبنان، في مواجهة بعض الخيارات التي يبدو أنها راودت قادة العدو في المرحلة السابقة. والقدر المتيقن أيضاً، أنه سيساهم أيضاً في كبح تدحرج أي مواجهة نحو الحرب، على فرض حصول مواجهة عسكرية ما.

على نفس الإيقاع، يحضر أيضاً سيناريو اتساع نطاق المواجهة العسكرية، الى حرب واسعة في المنطقة تتعرض بموجبها «إسرائيل» لآلاف الصواريخ الجوالة والدقيقة والطائرات المسيّرة عن بُعد. ويكشف ذلك أيضاً عن الدور الردعي الإقليمي لتحالف محور المقاومة، في مواجهة حرب أميركية ــــ إسرائيلية، في المنطقة، ابتداءً أو تدحرجاً. وبرزت تجلّيات ذلك في أكثر من محطة إقليمية. وبموجب ذلك، يتّضح ــــ وهو الأهم ــــ أن سيناريو «أسراب» الصواريخ الجوالة والدقيقة و«المسيَّرات»، يحفر عميقاً في وعي صناع القرار في تل أبيب.

تبقى مسألة ينبغي أن تبقى حاضرة لدى تقدير أي مستجدات تبدو لوهلة أنها تشكل فرصة ودافعاً للعدو، للمبادرة إلى خيارات عدوانية تهدف الى تغيير المعادلة المحلية (اللبنانية) والإقليمية بشكل جذري، وهي أن هناك مستجداً كان ولا يزال في مسار تصاعدي، وهو تغيّر معادلات القوة (بالمفهوم الواسع) بشكل جذري. وما السيناريوات التي انطلقت منها المناورة إلا أحد تجلّيات الإقرار بذلك. وشكّل هذا المتغيّر في معادلات القوة علامة لاغية إزاء بعض الخيارات، وعاملاً مُقيِّدا إزاء خيارات أخرى.

Israeli Army Drills Infantry Troops to Confront Hezbollah

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The Israeli army carried out major annual drills, named the “Lethal Arrow’ in simulation of a military confrontation with Hezbollah.

The Chief of Staff Aviv Kovhavi insisted on conducting the drills despite the coronavirus threat, considering that the Zionist army must be able to defeat Hezbollah in a very short time to prevent it from expand its missile fire.

The infantry troops must undergo the military training to be able to cause a massive destruction in Lebanon during the war in order to defeat Hezbollah, according to Kochavi.

According to the Zionist media, Kochavi intended to boost the army’s morale in light of the report issued by the military ombudsman, Isaac Brick, who confirmed that the Israeli forces are unable to face Hezbollah.

The enemy’s defense minister, Benny Gantz, inspected the military maneuvers, highlighting the threats which endanger the occupation entity on the northern and the southern fronts.

Gantz viewed positively the Lebanese voices which are pleading ‘peace’ with ‘Israel’, saying that Lebanon will pay the price of any attack launched by Hezbollah on the occupation entity.

Source: Al-Manar English Website

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How Will Terrified “Israel” Avoid another Hezbollah in Syria?

How Will Terrified “Israel” Avoid another Hezbollah in Syria?

By Jihad Haidar, Al-Ahed News

Lebanon – The Hezbollah model in Lebanon terrifies “Israeli” leaders. These fears aren’t confined to Lebanon but include anxiety over a possible regional expansion. This concept doesn’t stem from a marginal commentator in the “Israeli” media. It doesn’t come from a figure who wanted to outbid Netanyahu, or from an obscure expert who wanted the spotlight.

Rather, it was issued by the head of the Military Intelligence Directorate’s Research Division [Aman], Brigadier General Dror Shalom, in two consecutive interviews.

The first interview was with the Yedioth Ahronot newspaper and the second with the Saudi website, Elaph. Shalom made clear that “Israel’s” goal was to prevent a second Hezbollah in Syria.

However, this was originally articulated over a year ago by the head of the political hierarchy, Benjamin Netanyahu, who clearly declared on the anniversary of the 2006 war that “Israel” would not allow “a second Lebanon in Syria.”

What does this mean exactly at a time like this? What messages regarding the previous stage and the reality in the region does it carry? And what are the indicators involved in the equation of the conflict with “Israel”?

Raising this slogan reveals the enemy’s priority at this stage of the conflict, both at the political and security levels. It outlines the objectives of the steps that are being pursued by Tel Aviv’s allies in the region. It also affirms that the top concern of the “Israeli” entity’s national security institutions is preventing the replication of the Hezbollah model in any regional arena, and of course, an attempt to depose this model in Lebanon.

This slogan, which carries many messages, did not materialize until an assessment of the situation in which the enemy’s leaders concluded that the regional threat posed by Hezbollah to “Israel’s” future imposes on them the urgency to prevent the recreation of the Hezbollah model.

It comes 14 years after the last direct military confrontation was launched by the “Israeli” army to eliminate Hezbollah. This confirms the extent of the defeat it suffered during the war and the subsequent stages that the region went through.

This slogan also reveals the magnitude of the deterrent force that Hezbollah was able to impose on the “Israeli” entity. Hezbollah succeeded in engraving into the conciseness of the political and security decision-makers that any aggressive initiative will be met with a response that will give them two options: Either deterrence or a rolling response towards a broad military confrontation.

It is clear that this vision has kept pace with the enemy’s decision-making establishment in recent years in which Hezbollah has succeeded in accumulating and developing its capabilities.

This slogan is an acknowledgment of the failure of all options and bets that defined policy throughout the last decade. Tel Aviv had hoped to remove the threat posed by Hezbollah without paying the price it knew it might not be able to withstand. But it found itself confronted by Hezbollah. What is new is that Hezbollah’s model of resistance, with all its tactics of response, defense, and deterrence has become a regional model.

Thus, Shalom and Netanyahu’s announcements represent a tacet admission that Hezbollah was a useful and effective model in confronting an entity the size of “Israel”, and that the entity’s concern is now to besiege this model and prevent its recurrence.

In the same context, the positions of the enemy’s leaders also reveal the truth about the objective behind “Israel’s” continuous attacks on the Syrian arena. This means that it aims to prevent the building up and development of Syrian capabilities, based on its experience in Lebanon.

Nevertheless, the “Israeli” leadership’s reactions to the Hezbollah model reveal their deep awareness that it represents a viable alternative for the peoples of the region in facing the threat posed by “Israel”.

The danger posed by this alternative is that it destroys one of the most important pretexts that are falsely marketed to justify normalization with the “Israeli” entity, as the balance of international and regional powers dictates acceptance of facts.

The fact is that the resistance movement in the smallest Arab country surrounding Palestine succeeded in imposing its will on the occupier in both liberation and deterrence.

“هآرتس”: الصاروخ يلوي ذنب الطائرة

المصدر: هآرتس

الكاتب: اللواء إحتياط إسحاق بريك

16 تشرين اول 13:36

صحيفة “هآرتس” تنشر مقالاً للواء احتياط إسحاق بريك يتحدث فيه عن أن سلاح الجو الإسرائيلي لا يمكنه توفير استجابة مناسبة في حربٍ متعددة الساحات، تُطلق فيها آلاف الصواريخ والقذائف الصاروخية كل يوم على “الداخل الإسرائيلي”.

ذكرت صحيفة “هآرتس” الإسرائيلية أنه وقبل سنوات طويلة “فهم الإيرانيون أنه من الأفضل لهم بناء تشكيل صواريخ وقذائف صاروخية حول حدود “إسرائيل” بدل صيانة أسلحة جو كبيرة وقوية”. وفيما يلي النص المترجم للمقال:

هذا الفهم ينبع من عدة أسباب:

“إسرائيل” لديها سلاح جو قوي وطائرات من الطراز الأول في العالم، مع طيارين أصحاب خبرة قتالية غنية، من الأفضل في العالم، وقدرة تفوق بعشرات المرات قدرات أسلحة جو الدول العربية التي تحيط بها.

الإيرانيون فهموا أنه لا يمكن تزويد  حماس والجهاد الإسلامي في قطاع غزة وحزب الله في لبنان، بطائرات حربية ضد الطائرات الحربية لـ “إسرائيل”. في المقابل، تقدّم تطوير الصواريخ في العالم وفي إيران أوصل إلى قدرات تفوق بمعايير كثيرة قدرات الطائرات.

وفيما يلي أساسها:


تكلفات منخفضة نسبياً، كونه لا حاجة لشراء طائرات، ولا طيارين متمرسين، ولا تدريبات طيران وصيانة جارية للطائرات والمدارج – وكل هذا يستلزم نفقاتٍ طائلة في البنى التحتية والقوة البشرية.


إطلاق الصواريخ لا يتطلب الكثير من التمرس والمهنية، الصواريخ والقذائف الصاروخية الأحدث، لمدايات طويلة ومتوسطة وقصيرة، برؤوسٍ حربية تزن مئات الكيلوغرامات، وقدرة دقيقة لأمتارٍ معدودة من الهدف، يمكن أن يطلقها فلّاحون.

والدليل: الصواريخ الدقيقة التي أصابت من مدى مئات الكيلومترات منشآت النفط في السعودية، وأوقعت فيها أضراراً هائلة أطلقنها جماعة أنصار الله، تقريباً من دون بذل جهدٍ كبير على فريق إطلاق الصواريخ.


إطلاق الصواريخ من مدايات بعيدة ومتوسطة وقصيرة نحو تجمعاتٍ سكانية، أهداف استراتيجية، بنى تحتية اقتصادية أو مراكز سلطة، لا يتطلب وقتاً كثيراً للاستعداد، ويمكن فعله خلال وقتٍ قصير من لحظة اتخاذ قرار إطلاقها.


مدة تحليق الصواريخ الثقيلة من مدى مئات الكيلومترات قصيرة جداً، عدة دقائق فقط، وهي ذات قدرة إصابة دقيقة. في المقابل، تفعيل طائرات لمدى مئات الكيلومترات هو عملية معقدة جداً، أولاً، تتطلب وقتاً أطول بكثير. رحلة ذهاب وإياب تطول ساعات، وتتطلب تخطيطاً دقيقاً ومرتبطة بمخاطر. ثانياً، كما قلنا، كلفة كل رحلة باهظة. وثالثاً، عدد الصواريخ الذكية التي تستطيع الطائرة حملها محدود.

لهذه الأسباب، نشأت مشكلة استراتيجية: سلاح الجو لا يمكنه توفير استجابة مناسبة في حربٍ متعددة الساحات، تُطلق فيها آلاف الصواريخ والقذائف الصاروخية كل يوم على الداخل الإسرائيلي.

لسنواتٍ طويلة بنت القيادة العسكرية والسياسية مفهوماً يفيد أن سلاح الجو هو العامل الحاسم في ميدان القتال، وهو ليس كذلك.

حتى لو لم يقولوا هذا على الملأ، الوقائع على الأرض تدل على ذلك ألف دلالة. حتى في حرب يوم الغفران فشل سلاح الجو فشلاً ذريعاً أمام صواريخ الأرض – جو التي أطلقها المصريون.

السلاح أعدّ نفسه لحربٍ مضت، وليس للحرب المقبلة. لأسفي، المقاربة نفسها قائمة اليوم أيضاً.

في حرب لبنان الثانية عام تموز 2006، نجح سلاح الجو في ضرب الصواريخ الثقيلة والبعيدة المدى لحزب الله وتحييد غالبيتها، لكنه لم ينجح في وقف قصف الصواريخ والقذائف الصاروخية للمدى القصير والمتوسط طوال أيام الحرب.

بحسب التقديرات، حوالى الـ300 ألف من سكان الشمال غادروا منازلهم إلى وسط البلاد في حرب لبنان الثانية.

في الحرب المقبلة لن يكون لسكان الشمال مكان يُخلون إليه، لأن مئات الصواريخ ستصيب أيضاً وسط البلاد في كل يوم، سيما صواريخ ثقيلة (التي تحمل مئات الكيلوغرامات من المواد المتفجرة) ودقيقة.

اليوم يوجد لدى حزب الله وحماس عشرات آلاف الصواريخ لمدايات بعيدة، التي تغطّي كل مراكزنا السكانية: غوش دان (الوسط وضمنه تل أبيب)، خليج حيفا، القدس، والمئات منها دقيقة.

حتى لو نجحنا في تدمير 60% من هذه الصواريخ فإن الـ40% المتبقية ستُعيد “إسرائيل” عشرات السنين إلى الوراء: ستصيب البنى التحتية للكهرباء، المياه، الوقود، الصناعة والاقتصاد، وقواعد سلاح الجو وأسلحة البر، مراكز السلطة، المطارات، وأهداف استراتيجية أخرى وتجمعات سكانية.

إطلاق حماس والجهاد الإسلامي الصواريخ والقذائف الصاروخية على غلاف غزة، وأحياناً حتى على وسط البلاد، أثبت دون أدنى شك أن سلاح الجو لوحده لا يمكنه ان ينتصر.

في الحقيقة، حتى يومنا هذا لم يُفلح في وقف نيران الصواريخ والقذائف الصاروخية. حماس والجهاد، بإرادتهما تبدآن بقصف مستوطناتنا، وبإرادتهما تتوقفان، وليس بوسع سلاح الجو أن يخلّصنا.

في كل الجولات القتالية تقريباً لم يُقتل لهما مقاتلين، لأنهم يختبئون في مدينة الأنفاق التي بنوها تحت الأرض. إذا أصابت قنابل سلاح الجو الإسرائيلي في الحرب المقبلة سكاناً أبرياء في غزة، الأمر سيخدم حماس والجهاد الإسلامي لأن هذا سيثير العالم ضدنا.

المعركة بين الحروب الدائرة منذ سنوات، تصرف انتباه قادة الجيش والسياسيين عن إعداد الجيش الإسرائيلي للحرب المقبلة.

مؤخراً انبرى الناطق باسم الجيش بمنشور عن آلاف القنابل والصواريخ (بتكلفة مليارات الشواكل)، التي أطلقتها طائراتنا على أهدافٍ سورية منذ سنة 2017 إلى اليوم. لكن هذا القصف لم يوقف التمركز الإيراني في سوريا، وكذلك لم يغير بصورة جوهرية التهديد الوجودي على “إسرائيل”، الكامن في مئات آلاف الصواريخ والقذائف الصاروخية الجاهزة لدى العدو من حول “إسرائيل”، في إيران ولدى حلفائها، وضمنها آلاف الصواريخ الدقيقة.

حتى لو أُطلقت فقط عشرات الصواريخ الدقيقة إلى أهدافٍ استراتيجية وتجمعات سكانية، يمكن أن يُنزلوا بـ”إسرائيل” ضربة فتاكة. ورغم هذا، ورغم أن الكلفة – الجدوى للمعركة بين الحروب من منظورٍ استراتيجي هي منخفضة – أُنفقت فيها ميزانيات ضخمة.

كان بالإمكان استثمار جزء من هذه المليارات على الأقل في الذراع البرية، في إقامة سلاح صواريخ هجومية وفي وسائل أكثر نجاعة لتدمير صواريخ العدو وهي تحلق.

في الحرب المقبلة، يُحتمل واقعاً لم يسبق أن اختبر سلاح الجو مثيلاً له – إطلاق العدو لصواريخ دقيقة على قواعده. هذا القصف سيُلحق أضراراً شديدة بمدارج الإقلاع وبالقواعد، بصورة يمكن أن تُضر بشدة بوتيرة إقلاع الطائرات لمهاجمة أهداف العدو. من أجل التغلب سريعاً على أضرارٍ كهذه، مطلوب قدرة عالية من الطواقم، وتأهيل عالٍ في كل قواعد سلاح الجو، المسؤولين عن ضمان الاستمرارية الوظيفية، الذي يعني تصليح المدارج المتضررة من الصواريخ، وجمع الشظايا، وإخلاء الجرحى، وإطفاء حرائق وغير ذلك.

قبل سنة كنا شهوداً على سخرية الاستمرارية الوظيفية في قاعدة سلاح الجو في “حاتسور”، في السيل الذي غرقت فيه 8 طائرات حربية وتضررت. تبين عدم تنفيذ الأوامر والإجراءات بسبب الإهمال وعدم الانصياع. هذه كانت المرة الثالثة التي تحدث فيها حادثة خطيرة كهذه في القاعدة نفسها، والدروس لم تُطبّق. من يضمن لنا أن هذا الوضع الخطير غير قائم في قواعد أخرى لسلاح الجو؟

الجيش الإسرائيلي وضع كل بيضه في سلة سلاح الجو، في إنفاقات ضخمة على حساب بقية عناصر المنظومة، ضمن إلحاق ضرر بالذراع البرية ووضعه جانباً فكرة إقامة سلاح صواريخ.

الذراع البرية سُحقت في السنوات الأخيرة، من جراء تقليصات غير مسؤولة في نظم القوات للوحدات القتالية، ونقص في التدريب وعدم قدرة على الصيانة كما يجب للوسائط في مخازن الطوارئ، بسبب تقليصات هاذية في القوة البشرية في الخدمة الدائمة والنظامية. سلاح الجو يتمتع بأفضلية غير متناسبة في قبال الأذرع الأخرى للجيش. هذه الأفضلية تؤدي بالجيش الإسرائيلي إلى وضعٍ حرج من عدم الجهوزية للحرب المقبلة، وهذا على الرغم من أن سلاح الجو لا يوفّر جواباً في حماية أجواء الدولة من صواريخ العدو.

منظومة الدفاع التي بناها الجيش الإسرائيلي ضد صواريخ العدو – “القبة الحديدية”، “حِتْس”، و”العصا السحرية” – هي الأخرى لا توفّر استجابة كافية بسبب الكلفة الهائلة لكل صاروخ (صاروخ “حِتْس” يكلّف 3 ملايين دولار، وصاروخ “القبة الحديدية” يكلّف 100 ألف دولار). الكلفة الهائلة لهذه الصواريخ لا تسمح بالاحتفاظ بمخازن كبيرة. لحظة تندلع الحرب، ستنفذ مخازن الصواريخ خلال وقتٍ قصير. إذاً، ليس هناك قدرة على الانتصار من دون عملية مشتركة بين الذراع البرية وذراع الجو والفضاء، ضمن دفاعٍ مناسب عن الجبهة الداخلية.

أفيغدور ليبرمان، عندما كان وزيراً للأمن، بادر إلى إقامة سلاح الصواريخ، من أجل تحسين القدرة الهجومية للجيش الإسرائيلي لمدايات متوسطة مع قدرة إصابة دقيقة، في أوقاتٍ قصير جداً من لحظة اتخاذ قرار بإطلاقها، ومن خلال ذلك وضع تهديداً مشابه أمام تهديد العدو الذي يضعه أمامنا. لكن بسبب المفهوم الخاطئ للجيش الإسرائيلي، بتوجيهٍ من القائد الأعلى لسلاح الجو، يضعون غالبية الموارد في سلة واحدة – سلاح الجو.

هذه الرؤية لا تسمح بتفكيرٍ مبدع، وهي تُبقي “إسرائيل” بعيدة خلف دول أحسنت مواءمة جيشها لحروب المستقبل، ضمن حفاظٍ على توازنٍ أصح بين حجم سلاح الجو وبين تشكيلات حيوية أخرى، مثل سلاح الصواريخ والذراع البرية. بعد أن أنهى ليبرمان مهامه كوزيرٍ للأمن، وُضعت خطته في الدُرج لأنها لم تناسب المفهوم الذي نمّاه سلاح الجو طوال السنين، وبحسبه هو العامل الحاسم في حروب “إسرائيل”، ولا يمكن من دونه، (لا سمح الله ان يأخذوا ميزانيات شراء طائرات جديدة إلى تشكيل الصواريخ الجديد، الذي تفوق نجاعته نجاعة الطائرات بعشرات الأضعاف ضد أهدافٍ في عمق تشكيلات العدو).

الرؤية السائدة اليوم وسط القيادة العليا للجيش الإسرائيلي وجزء من أعضاء الحكومة هي أن سلاح الجو هو جيش “إسرائيل”. رغم أن هذه الرؤية قد عفا عليها الزمن، إنها مستمرة في الوجود بسبب غطرسة و”أنا” قادة سلاح الجو الكبار، غير المستعدين للتنازل عن الأسطورة التي صنعوها.

إنهم يقاتلون كيلا ينتقل شيكل واحد إلى تشكيلاتٍ أخرى على حساب ميزانيات شراء طائرات جديدة. وينضم إلى هذا ضعف رئيس الأركان أمام المفهوم الخاطئ بأن سلاح الجو يمكنه أن يوفّر استجابة مناسبة في حربٍ متعددة الساحات.

كثير من القادة الكبار السابقين في سلاح الجو، الذين قاتلوا في حروب “إسرائيل”، يعتقدون شيئاً آخرَ. في أحاديث معهم يقولون لي كلاماً قاسياً جداً عن مسلكية القيادة العليا في سلاح الجو اليوم، وعن انعدام مرونتها وعدم فهمها لميدان القتال المستقبلي، انطلاقاً من رؤية تُشرك أسلحة أخرى.

إلى اليوم، ليس هناك تعاون في التدريبات بين الذراع البرية وبين ذراع الجو والفضاء، باستثناء حالاتٍ قليلة جداً من التعاون بين الذراع البرية والمروحيات الهجومية. كل ذراع تعمل على حدا. هذا الوضع أضر بشدة بنجاعة الجيش في الحروب السابقة، وبالتأكيد سيضر بشدة في نجاعته في الحروب القادمة.

أيضاً في كعكة الميزانيات ليس هناك توازن بين ذراعي البر والجو، ولا تناول مناسب لرّد هجومي ودفاعي ضد صواريخ العدو، وهذا الوضع يودي بالجيش الإسرائيلي بمجمله إلى عدم جهوزية للحرب المقبلة. لم نستخلص العِبَر من حروب الماضي، ولا نستعد كما هو مطلوب للمستقبل.

ليس هناك عقيدة أمنية تقود قرارات القيادة العليا – فببساطة، هذه العقيدة غير موجودة. ما يقود رؤساء الأركان والقيادة العليا هو نزوات تؤدي إلى تغييرات مبالغ فيها بين رئيس أركان والذي يليه، التي تقطع في لحظة واحدة التواصل في بناء الجيش وفي إعداده لحرب. الأمر الوحيد الذي يشترك فيه الجميع هو إعطاء أفضلية لسلاح الجو. الحرب التي ستأتي ستكون أصعب من كل الحروب، والجيش غير جاهزٍ للتحدّي.

Will the Israel-US “New Wars” Succeed in Weakening Hezbollah?


October 9, 2020

When conventional military war failed to defeat the Lebanese Hezbollah, Israel and the US adopted different tactics in the art of war whilst avoiding overt conflict in the public eye. The new tactics, whilst not excluding traditional warfare, include a group of wars or actions based on irregular formations, terrorist acts, chaos, sanctions, electronic platform warfare, media wars, propaganda, fake news, the division of society, starvation policy and engaging the enemy from within, to weaken Hezbollah before attacking and finishing it off. This is “fifth generation war”; it is the hybrid war against Hezbollah.

The United Nations delivered a message to Hezbollah from Israel stating that killing any Israeli soldier or officer would push Israel to hit ten Hezbollah targets and centres in different regions of Lebanon. Israel has provided the maps, offices and locations it intends to target, according to a leading source familiar with the matter. 

Hezbollah replied to this message, that the bombing of ten targets in Lebanon will trigger an immediate response against ten Israeli military targets, command and control centres and other offices affiliated to the Israeli government. Precision missiles will be launched against Israel – said the message – without prior warning.

The Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, had announced that he would kill an Israeli soldier in return for Israel killing a Hezbollah member in Syria while targeting a centre of the joint forces in the vicinity of Damascus. Since that day, that is, since July 2020, Israeli jets have not struck any Iranian command target in Syria. Furthermore, the Israeli army has been asked to conceal itself in its barracks to avoid triggering Hezbollah’s announced process of retaliation.

The commander of the IDF’s Northern Command, Major General Amir Baram, stated, “Israel is keen not to be dragged into a large-scale war with Hezbollah. It is fundamentally a war that both sides wish to avoid.”

Israel’s leaders no longer brandish the threat to take Lebanon back to the Stone Age by bombing and destroying the entire infrastructure and whole villages and cities as it did in the 2006 war. This is because Hezbollah has achieved a balance of deterrence: Israel has acknowledged that Hezbollah has missiles that can strike any target anywhere in Israel with enormous destructive power and precision.

Consequently, the theory – introduced by Hezbollah’s opponents in Lebanon to say the international community can protect Lebanon and not a heavily armed domestic group – that ”Lebanon is strong due to its weakness and incapacity to defend itself” has fallen. Indeed, the balance of deterrence has forced Israel and its ally the US to back down from the use of military force, without necessarily abandoning the project to weaken or defeat Hezbollah. This is what has pushed this strategic alliance (US and Israel) to shift towards “soft and hybrid warfare”. This new approach creates windows of opportunity to direct a military strike on Hezbollah to defeat it when the right time comes. That is possible only when Hezbollah becomes weak and without allies, supporters or a society protecting it, and indeed if Hezbollah fails to confront this hybrid war.

In 2006 during the second Israeli war on Lebanon, Israel did not achieve its goals because its intelligence failed to predict Hezbollah’s missile capabilities and readiness to hold its ground. The first surprise came at Wadi Al-Hujair with the Kornet anti-tank missiles and later with surface-to-surface missiles (when the class corvette Saar-5 was hit). Also, Hezbollah possessed the electronic capabilities to break through to the Israeli drones and other capabilities, which enabled it to know a large number of pre-prepared operations and targets in Israel’s bank of objectives. Israel has since modified its electronic protection with more advanced technology. However, electronic warfare continues: it is an ongoing battle with measures and countermeasures on both sides.

That is why it was necessary to introduce « hybrid warfare ». It needed another more effective approach to attack Hezbollah, more comprehensive. Let us take, for example, what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presented in 2018 and a few days ago to the United Nations General Assembly about the presence of Hezbollah missiles near Beirut airport and others in the Jnah area in the Lebanese capital. In the first attempt of Netanyahu, Lebanese Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil reacted by inviting Country Ambassadors to visit the site. In the second most recent case, Hezbollah invited the local and international press to visit the site and to confirm the falsity of Netanyahu’s claim. However, did Netanyahu lose the two rounds against Hezbollah or did he reach his desired objective?

I asked a Lebanese leader within the “Axis of the Resistance”: How many out of the 194 representatives at the United Nations saw Nasrallah’s response to Netanyahu’s lie? The immediate answer did not wait: “”Maybe one, two – very few. “”

Consequently, the Israeli prime minister won the disinformation war, and the powerful Zionist lobby helped him in the international media to publish his colourful pictures and folkloric output and to overlook Hezbollah’s point of view. It is likely that Netanyahu aimed in his media war to amplify the already existing negative international and domestic public opinion against Hezbollah: though in Europe, most of the leaders of the old continent have refused to consider Hezbollah as a terrorist organisation, resisting the tremendous US pressure to join the US-Israeli objective. 

In Lebanon, there is a well-known saying: “There are people who, if we anoint them with filtered honey, only hate us more. Others, if we wound them and cut them to pieces, love us the more.” Lebanese society is divided between those who support Hezbollah and those who hate and voice their hatred of Hezbollah. 

Whoever ideologically or by conviction supports Hezbollah will maintain the same position and never budge. As for those who support Hezbollah only circumstantially, some will turn against it or voice their criticism, particularly on social media. Many within the Lebanese Christian camp, particularly those who support the Tayyar al-Watani al-Hurr (the Free National Movement- FNM), no longer take into consideration that Hezbollah prevented the election of a President for two and a half years to impose – successfully – the FNM leader, General Michel Aoun, as President, notwithstanding domestic and international opposition. Instead, due to the US brainwashing campaign claiming that Hezbollah supports corruption or is responsible for corruption or is the ally of the Speaker Nabih Berri accused of corruption, a growing number of the FNM supporters fail to recognize the US-Israel hybrid campaign and give no more extended consideration to the alliance of two minorities (Shia and Christian) in the Levant. The expensive US economic sanctions and the decades of US-allies Lebanese-corrupted politicians overwhelm any reasoning. Daily life necessities become the priority, and alliances become marginal. The hybrid war against Hezbollah forced the society that supports the group to be entrenched and on the defensive.

By Elijah J Magnier
Source: Elijah J. Magnier

كيف يرضى الأميركيّ دور الوسيط في ظل السلاح؟

ناصر قنديل

قد يكون حجب الأعين عن طرح هذا السؤال، سبباً كافياً لتفسير وفهم الحملة المبرمجة على الإعلان عن اتفاق الإطار للتفاوض غير المباشر حول ترسيم الحدود، وما تضمنته الحملة من كثافة أسئلة تشكيكية بوطنية الأهداف، كالاتهام بالتطبيع والاعتراف بكيان الاحتلال، والتفريط بالمقاومة، وفتح الباب لطرح مصير سلاح المقاومة على الطاولة، وهي أسئلة لا يمكن فهم أهدافها وتفسيرها بالنظر إلى انتماء أغلب أصحابها إلى معسكر الداعين علناً لنزع سلاح المقاومة وتحميله مسؤولية كل أزمات لبنان، وتبني أغلبهم دعوات الحياد، والساعين لخطب ودّ المناخ الخليجي الزاحف نحو الاعتراف والتطبيع، ولكون الجهة المستهدفة بالتشكيك هي المقاومة التي تتهم إما بالخيانة أو بالغباء، وتاريخها ناصع في الشجاعة والحكمة والتضحية والثبات في آن واحد.

من الممكن تفهُّم أسباب هؤلاء في حملتهم، من موقع غضب وغيظ وخيبة، بفعل ما ذهبوا إليه من إحراق للسفن في حملاتهم لشيطنة المقاومة وتحميلها وزر كل الأزمات، ودعوتهم لتقييدها وحصارها، وإبعادها من المشهد وطرح مصير سلاحها على الطاولة، وتسويق دعوات الحياد، وكل ذلك تحت عنوان واحد، أن المقاومة تسبّبت بغضب مَن يُمكنهم مساعدة لبنان على الخروج من أزمته، ولهؤلاء المتعدّدي الهوية عنوان واحد يبدأ من واشنطن، وفيما هم يفعلون كل ما بوسعهم لتقديم أوراق اعتمادهم للأميركي كسعاة لترجمة شعاره، لا حلول مالية في ظل سلاح المقاومة، يفاجئهم الأميركي بالقبول بما وصف به اتفاق الإطار وما يهدف إليه، كعنوان حل أزمة لبنان المالية، وفقاً لكلام وزير الخارجية الأميركية مايك بومبيو ومعاونه ديفيد شينكر، وفي ظل السلاح وبعيدا عن أي نقاش حول نزعه أو اشتراط إدخال مستقبله بنداً في التفاوض.

الأسباب الخاصة لهؤلاء في الشعور بالغضب والغيظ والخيبة، واضحة ومفهومة، لكنها تفسر انخراطهم في الحملة، وليس أهدافها، فهم عبر الحملة يفجّرون غضبهم وغيظهم ويعبرون عن خيبتهم، لكنهم يعاودون تقديم أوراق اعتمادهم للأميركي مجدداً، على أبواب مفاوضات شاقة ومعقدة يحتاج التفاوض فيها إلى حرب إعلامية ونفسية تواكبها، وأعلى مستويات الحرب النفسيّة هو نقل الخصم المنتصر إلى مهزوم يدافع عن نفسه، تماماً كما فعل الرئيس فؤاد السنيورة بعد حرب تموز، برفض الاعتراف بأن لبنان انتصر، رغم أن كيان الاحتلال بقادته السياسيين والعسكريين، ومفكّريه ونخبه ووسائل إعلامه وقضاته، كان يعترف بالإجماع بأنه هُزم وبأن المقاومة انتصرت، وكان الهدف من الإنكار، أبعد من مجرد نقل المقاومة إلى موقع الدفاع، بل الإسهام في معركة الوعي، لصالح منع تجذر فكرة النصر في الوعي الجمعي للبنانيين والعرب، وتقديم أوراق الاعتماد للجولة المقبلة من المواجهة.

لنتخيل المشهد لولا حملات التشكيك وكثافتها، وتدفق الأسئلة المبرمجة ضمنها، كما لنتخيل المشهد من دون حملات التشكيك بالنصر في تموز، بعيداً عن وظيفة التشكيك بنقل المقاومة إلى الدفاع عن نفسها وصدق وإخلاص موقعها من أجل وطنها، والدفاع بالتالي عن صدقيّة نصرها. فهدف الحملات الأعمق والأبعد مدى، كان حرمان المقاومة من خوض معركتها وإطلاق حملتها، لطرح أسئلتها، وفي حرب تموز كان سؤال المقاومة هل بقي هذا الجيش جيشاً لا يُقهر، وهل ثبت أن «إسرائيل» أوهن من بيت العنكبوت، والسؤال الذي كان يجب أن يطرح اليوم، ليس كيف قبلت المقاومة بالأميركي وسيطاً، لأن السؤال الطبيعي كيف قبل الأميركي دور الوسيط في ظل السلاح؟

لقد خاض الأميركيون والإسرائيليون، حرب تموز لإقصاء السلاح عن قدرة التأثير في أمن الكيان وثروات الغاز، وفشلوا، وشنّوا حربهم على سورية وفي أحد أهدافها تحقيق ما لم يتحقق في حرب تموز، وفشلوا، وحاولوا السطو على الغاز من دون تعريض أمن الكيان، ومرة أخرى كان اسم السنيورة حاضراً، ففشلوا مرتين، مرة بإسقاط التسلل عبر السنيورة، لترسيم مشوّه لحساب الكيان، والمرة الأهم لفشلهم كانت عندما رفعت المقاومة شعارها، سندمّر كل منصات الغاز التي تنصب في المنطقة الاقتصادية التي يعتبرها لبنان حقاً سيادياً له، وركزوا خلال عامين على الذهاب نحو دفع لبنان إلى الانهيار والانفجار، أملاً بتوجيه كرة النار نحو المقاومة تحت شعار، لا حل في ظل السلاح، ولا حوار في ظل السلاح، ولا إنقاذ في ظل السلاح، وذهب بعضهم للقول لا حكومة في ظل لسلاح، ولا انتخابات في ظل السلاح، وفشلوا ولم ينجح السيناريو بإضعاف المقاومة وفرض التنازلات عليها، وعلى بيئتها وحلفائها، فاضطر الأميركي والإسرائيلي للرضوخ لمعادلة حرب تموز الاقتصادية، والتسليم بالتفاوض في ظل السلاح.

مَن يستطيع اليوم أن يقول لا تفاوض ولا حوار في ظل السلاح؟

استحضار بندر بن سلطان: السعوديّة إلى التطبيع در

في ظروف سعودية تغلق فيها كل المنافذ أمام ما يُسمّى بالحرس القديم، وظروف أميركية تضع ملف التطبيع الخليجي الإسرائيلي في الواجهة، لا يمكن أن يحضر الأمير المتقاعد بندر بن سلطان على فضائيّة سعودية ليفتتح حملة تشهير بالشعب والقيادات الفلسطينيّة إلا كثمرة لخطة سعودية أميركية تم إسناد تنفيذها لبندر الذي كان تاريخياً نقطة تقاطع المهمات الخاصة الأميركية السعودية منذ تشكيل مجموعات «جهادية» للقتال في أفغانستان تحوّلت لاحقاً إلى تنظيم القاعدة، كما يروي مستشار الأمن القومي الأميركي الأسبق زبيغينيو بيريجنسكي.

العلاقة بكيان الاحتلال كانت دائماً حاضرة في مهمات بندر الأميركية السعودية، وهو مهندس الشراكة الثلاثية الأميركية السعودية الإسرائيلية في الحرب على سورية، وهو مَن وصف مراراً من قادة الكيان بالصديق الموثوق، وهو صاحب الدعوة العلنية لصندوق خاص لتمويل توطين الفلسطينيين في أماكن اللجوء، ضمن إطار تصفية حق العودة للاجئين.

إطلالة بندر بن سلطان لخوض معركة تحميل الفلسطينيين مسؤولية ضياع فرص نيل الحقوق والاستحضار المشوه للوقائع لتثبيت هذه الفكرة، من رجل تولى مسؤوليات وقاد اتصالات تمنحه صفة التحدث بما كان شريكاً في صناعته، تهدف للتمهيد أمام الرأي العام الخليجي عموماً والسعودي خصوصاً من أي التزام بالقضية الفلسطينية، وصولاً للدعوة التي يتبنّاها حكام الإمارات أصدقاء بندر، تحت عنوان هدرنا جهوداً ووقتاً أكثر مما ينبغي من أجل فلسطين من دون جدوى، على حساب مصالحنا، وآن لنا أن نهتمّ بأنفسنا، وهنا طبعاً لا يسأل هؤلاء أنفسهم عن مصلحة بلادهم بفتح أمنها ومجتمعاتها أمام مخابرات كيان الاحتلال؟

الذريعة التي سينتقل بندر لتسويقها في إطلالة ثانية ستكون أولوية إيران كخطر يستدعي التعاون مع كيان الاحتلال. وهذا يعني أن خطة الانضمام السعوديّ إلى ركب التطبيع، كما بشر دونالد ترامب، قد وضعَت قيد التنفيذ.

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Haaretz: Sayyed Nasrallah Not Wrong About Stretching “Israeli” Army to the Limit

Haaretz: Sayyed Nasrallah Not Wrong About Stretching “Israeli” Army to the Limit

By Staff, Haaretz

The high alert on the northern border has been in force for more than a month and a half. Under the flood of other news, it’s not the main thing on the mind of the “Israeli” public and media.

According to the “Israeli” news outlet Haaretz, Hezbollah has tried twice to avenge the martyrdom of a fighter martyred in July in an “Israeli” bombing attack at Damascus Airport.

The devastating explosion at the Beirut port on August 4 completely changed the agenda in Lebanon, the news outlet went on to say. But very quickly it became clear that it had no effect on the plans of Hezbollah leader His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, who is determined to kill an “Israeli” soldier before declaring a return to calm on the border.

Sayyed Nasrallah is trying to hold the rope at both ends, according to Haaretz. He denies the “Israeli” allegations about the foiling of attempted attacks, but is proud that the “Israeli” army is so tense waiting for Hezbollah’s response.

Haaretz added that the alert along the border has been long and nerve-racking, taking up the time of Military Intelligence as well, far beyond what “Israelis” might think. The “Israeli” army is continuing to call up reservist officers to reinforce command posts, to deploy relatively large forces in the entity’s north and to keep its distance from the fence. It doesn’t want to provide Hezbollah with a target for an operation.

The containment policy was decided at the very top, by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, War Minister Benny Gantz and army chief Aviv Kochavi, the news outlet explained.

For years, the “Israeli” entity has been waging a war between the wars in the north alleging that one of its goals is to prevent the transfer of advanced weapons from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon. If Sayyed Nasrallah establishes a new balance of threats, he can also influence moves attributed to the “Israeli” entity in Syria, according to the “Israeli” daily.

Based on the report by Haaretz, under Sayyed Nasrallah’s formula of deterrence, for every Lebanese death in an “Israeli” attack, even if it occurs in Syria, Hezbollah will mount a response. His Eminence’s temptation lies in stretching the equation to force the entity to think three times before every attack in Syria.

Furthermore, Netanyahu likes to boast about the close strategic and military cooperation with the Trump administration. Several times he has praised Trump for his decision in January to assassinate General Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force.

The United States is indeed pursuing an aggressive line against Tehran while gradually stepping up the sanctions pressure. But, like the “Israeli” entity, the Americans have to protect themselves against a possible response to the offensive moves they’ve made.

War of nerves: Israel begs Hezbollah to retaliate

Date: 6 September 2020

War of nerves: Israel begs Hezbollah to retaliate

Author: lecridespeuples

Nasrallah vows to kill an enemy soldier, Israel’s northern border is paralyzed and Zionist propaganda keeps shaping news reports.

By Sayed Hasan from Resistance News Unfiltered

By Sayed Hasan

As we explained in our article What happened —and didn’t happen— at the Israel-Lebanon border?, Israel has been on high alert at its northern border since its July 20 strike in Damascus that killed a Hezbollah fighter. Three similar experiences have proven, in 2014, 2015 and 2019, that a bloody retaliation is inevitable, and fear has paralyzed northern occupied Palestine for more than a month. But the excruciating pressure of waiting is so unbearable on the Israeli side —it has already claimed the life of a soldier when his vehicle overturned near the Lebanese border, probably due to panic— that after trying to neutralize Hezbollah’s response by a pitiful letter of apology and then by a ridiculous sham on July 27, claiming to have repelled an imaginary infiltration attempt, the Hebrew state has committed a third action even more stupid —and fraught with consequences— by replaying the scenario of the phantom attack and by carrying out defensive strikes (illuminating shells & smoke bombs) against southern Lebanon on the night of August 25 to 26.

Apart from forest fires which broke out near a Lebanese army position and a UNIFIL position, and very slight damage to an agricultural building and two houses, caused by smoke-producing phosphorus shells & illuminating shells, no loss is to be reported. All in all, it was a pretty harmless show, although very anxiety-provoking for civilians on both sides of the border, and it is certainly no accident that no casualties or serious damage are to be deplored: Israel fears Hezbollah more than anything, and rightly considers the Party of God (with Iran) as an existential threat. Far from constituting an act of force on Israel’s part, this defensive attack is an act caused by the considerable pressure weighing on its soldiers at the northern border, and is explained either by a hallucination caused by fear (Netanyahu himself was then near the northern border and announced it to the media, adding to the IDF’s nervousness), or by an insistent request meant to push Hezbollah to retaliate and thus end this unbearable tension. Israel’s nerves are visibly cracking.

However, once again, our mainstream (and even alternative) media were quick to pick up on the IDF statement that in response to (purely imaginary) gunfire (Hezbollah isn’t going to retaliate with light weaponry), Israel reportedly carried out strikes against Hezbollah positions. The docile peddling of this lie illustrates the West’s blind adherence to IDF fables, when even the Israeli press and public opinion constantly question them and trust Nasrallah more than their own leaders. Submission, ignorance, sensationalism and / or hidden hostility to the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon, presented as powerless in the face of attacks from an enemy who would only target the positions of the Party of God in self-defense (when in reality he is the aggressor and endangered civilian homes and positions of the Lebanese army and the UN), explain this familiar propaganda after every actual or supposed incident.

These mini-reports from Al-Manar (12 and 3), a Hezbollah TV channel which regularly translates the Hebrew media (unlike our media who do not even read the Israeli press in English, far more reliable than the Western news agencies despite heavy military censorship), explain in detail what happened, and show that there is a great deal of fear and frustration on the Israeli side: the IDF is extremely nervous, convinced that Hezbollah fighters are in ambush along the border and will seize the first opportunity to kill Israeli soldiers, and the settlers are anguished and revolted at the confused statements of the military and the restrictions placed on them.

Here are some eloquent quotes of these reports, all taken from Israeli analysts speaking on national TV channels:

We saw what happened in the Shebaa farms [on July 27], and we thought it was all behind us, but now we see what happened tonight, which is only the latest development. Perhaps Hezbollah will have the pleasure of forcing the IDF to remain on such a high level of alert along the border. Maybe they want to disrupt the life of Israelis in the region.

The Northern Command’s analysis is that Nasrallah will not give up on killing an Israeli soldier, and that he is determined to uphold the “eye for an eye, tooth for a tooth” equation against Israel. Since a Hezbollah fighter has been killed, he will kill an Israeli soldier in retaliation.

Ultimately, the military believes that Hezbollah has not settled its scores with Israel, and that it will carry out attacks against the Israeli military. That’s why the Northern Command has decided to stay on high alert, as Hezbollah’s attempts to strike soldiers will not stop.

Hezbollah cells are positioned along the border, and when a target presents itself they will open fire and kill an Israeli soldier in retaliation for the death of a Hezbollah fighter in Syria.

Hezbollah’s threats are therefore taken with the utmost seriousness in Israel, and whatever the complicit media may say, fear is clearly on the Israeli side, while the Lebanese Resistance relishes at the protracted torment of the occupier.

Hezbollah reacted laconically to this new incident, not even issuing a statement this time around. In a speech dedicated to the annual commemoration of the martyrdom of Imam Hussein on August 26, Nasrallah made a very brief comment about it, without dwelling on it:

I have to start with a very brief statement about what happened last night in the south on Lebanon’s border with occupied Palestine, all this Israeli commotion, the firing of flares and phosphorus grenades, as well as certain attacks. This is something important, sensitive and dangerous as far as we are concerned, but in a deliberate way I will not speak about it, I will not comment on it now, and I will leave this topic for later, at the auspicious time with the grace of God, soon and at the right time.

This sobriety is the complete opposite of an evasion: Nasrallah wishes to leave Israel on tenterhooks. As the grand master of psychological warfare he is, Nasrallah knows well that silence and expectation of retribution are worse than threats & inescapable retaliation that Israel ardently calls for in order to regain a semblance of serenity along its northern borders. Retaliation will indeed come, and it will certainly be deadly. It will avenge the death of the martyr Ali Kamal Mohsen killed in Damascus, as well as the violations of Lebanese sovereignty and the attacks against civilians during the Israeli strikes-for-show on July 27 and August 26, as promised by Hezbollah. Far from proving that Hezbollah would be hesitant and fearful, the fact that the response is slow to arrive adds long anxiety to the ultimate severity of the punishment: every Israeli soldier in the north constantly fears for his life, and will be relieved when this round is over, even at the cost of the death of one or more of his comrades —provided it is not him. Moreover, this expectation is also explained by the drastic security measures taken to avoid exposing the Israeli forces at the north (entire barracks abandoned, settlements evacuated, patrols and maneuvers canceled, soldiers forced to wear civilian clothes constantly, roads closed, etc.). It is certainly no coincidence that abandoned Israeli tanks were found by hikers in the Syrian Golan: it is probably a target offered to Hezbollah, as was already the case during the last confrontation of this type, unless the soldiers really deserted their posts.

Let us also remember that one year ago precisely, when two Hezbollah fighters were killed by Israel in Syria at the end of August 2019, Hezbollah’s retaliation happened 8 days later: on September 1, the Lebanese Resistance destroyed a moving Israeli military vehicle.

Netanyahu then claimed that there was not even a scratch on the Israeli side, and that the helicopter transport of a soldier covered in blood and carried on a stretcher was only a masquerade intended to deceive Hezbollah and avoid more strikes. A dubious claim which, even if true, would manifest incredible cowardice. It should be noted that at the same place and at the same time, an Israeli soldier was seriously injured by a childish game of stone-throwing (apparently more dangerous than two anti-tank missiles), at least according to the docile Israeli media submitted to strict military censorship. Let everyone draw their own conclusions about what really happened and who won this confrontation.

In any case, this experience may explain why Hezbollah’s response is yet to come. In order not to be fooled by a new Hollywood show, Hezbollah must wait for a target that is unmistakenly real, and such that no one can doubt that Israeli soldiers will have been killed by Hezbollah (and not by stones or other stupid and implausible games). Because Israel’s desperation is such that it goes as far as to bait Hezbollah with robots dressed as soldiers, and fakely protected by tanks and smoke bombs.

Moreover and above all, after putting all of northern Israel to a standstill for a whole week last year, Hezbollah now wants to make the fun last, and push Israel to the limit so that it humiliates itself more, and see how much longer the Zionist entity can remain on high alert before breaking down. Once again, the expectation of retribution is worse than the retribution itself, especially for first-class cowards like the IDF. Let us recall these two quotes reported in our previous article:

As a Koweiti put it on Twitter, “Hezbollah’s silence is sometimes more powerful and painful to the Zionist enemy than their missiles, because they live hours, days and weeks in a state of fear, terror and high nervousness. Silence is a destructive weapon of psychological warfare against the Israeli entity, both at the political and psychological levels.” Avigdor Lieberman, former Israeli Defense Minister, stated that “I am still worried because the North is paralyzed by the killing of one single Hezbollah member in Damascus. Unfortunately, Nasrallah proved that he does what he says, an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth.”

On July 27, the Israeli press questioned the reality of the alleged Hezbollah incursion, asking explicitly if it was not a new show intended for Hezbollah (cf. Jerusalem PostWas Mount Dov incident another Hollywood show for Hezbollah?). This time around, the Lebanese Resistance’s response must undoubtedly kill Israeli soldiers, and that is sure to happen. Nasrallah said this very clearly during his last speech on the 10th day of Muharram (August 30th), commemorating Imam Hussein’s martyrdom:

I have left the issue of the situation at the border between Lebanon and occupied Palestine for the end, and I will speak with great clarity, because it is necessary that things be very clear for everyone as to our stance.

Several weeks ago, during Israeli strikes near Damascus airport, martyrs fell, including our martyred brother combatant Hajj Ali Kamal Mohsen. We are firmly committed to the (deterrence) equation, and we have always enforced and upheld it. Our goal is not revenge. Our goal is to chastise the murderers, and uphold the balance of deterrence in order to protect (ourselves). This (is the equation) in effect since 2006.

Without our needing to make any statement (promising retaliation), after our mere statement reporting the martyrdom of our brother Ali Kamal Mohsein following an Israeli raid on Damascus airport, this single statement, without any additional word, was enough for Israel, which knows well (that our response was inevitable), (to go on maximum alert). And this is one of the successes of the Resistance. This Israel (which has always) behaved with arrogance, hybris and tyranny against entire regimes and entire armies, see how it behaves with the Resistance: it behaves in a very different way. This result was not achieved by declarations and speeches, but by our history, thanks to 38 years of sacrifice, jihad, endurance, achievements and victories on our side, and, on the Israeli side, (38 years old) of military and security setbacks, failures and defeats (against Hezbollah).

On its own initiative, as I said, Israel stood on a leg and a half (ready to flee) on the entire length of the border, from the sea to the Golan Heights. Not only on the Lebanese border, but also on the Syrian border with occupied Palestine. And they took all the (security) measures that you know: they evacuated their military positions —some positions are completely empty, and others still have personnel but the soldiers remain invisible—, they have completely canceled their patrols —sometimes a quick patrol can be carried out exceptionally when they feel that the Resistance is absent from a place—, and they have started sending us unmanned vehicles —because they have automatically piloted vehicles— in which they place dummies dressed in Israeli soldiers’ uniforms, as they did the last time, urging us to hit those vehicles; after that they are ready to bring in a helicopter, medical relief, put (these dummies) on stretchers and into the helicopter, thus making fun of us by having us believe that we got what we wanted, namely to kill one or two (Israeli) soldiers. Isn’t it? This is what they are doing. And yesterday you saw on the TV stations that they were sending us moving robots, putting a dummy in a soldier’s clothes on it, so that we would think it was a (real) soldier and hit that target. These measures have persisted for weeks.

Dummy dressed as an Israeli soldier and carried by a robot a few meters away from the Lebanese border, in order to lure Hezbollah, August 23rd

It is all part of the punishment. This army, which believes itself to be the most powerful in the region, when it faces the Resistance in Lebanon, yes, I can tell you that it stands on a leg and a half. And this along the entire length of the border. And fear is on the other side. They take action not only at the border, but behind the border, limiting movement to and within settlements, imposing (heavy) restrictions, etc. Training and maneuvers have been canceled until further notice. They brought in artillery and forces (to the north), and put their Iron Dome system on high alert. All this while waiting for (the inevitable retaliation of) the Resistance. Because they know that this Resistance is credible and serious.

And whatever is going on at the border, as we said in our statement, Israeli soldiers are afraid of their own shadow. If they have the impression that at any point on the border there is movement, they start to strike around their positions in the Shebaa farms, around their positions in al-Manara, near Mays-al- Jabal, Aït Aroun, etc., as well as in the western region. All of this expresses anguish, fear and terror on the Israeli side. Because why would they strike all these positions? If they have (accurate) information, if they have control over what’s going on, they need to be alert and have reliable information, (and not strike at random).

What I want to say clearly is that we consider everything that has happened since the martyrdom of our brother and so far to be part of the punishment. It is part of the punishment. It is our strong conviction. But I want to be even clearer, so that those in Lebanon who follow us understand us well, and so that Israel understands us. If we wanted to retaliate (merely) to boost the morale (of our troops and supporters), or for media hype (showing how tough we are), we would have done it from day one. I will be (more) precise. Quite frankly, we could have struck Israeli positions on the (occupied) Shebaa farms or anywhere along the border. Because as far as we are concerned, we no longer make any distinction. Formerly, we distinguished the Shebaa farms and the rest of the border, (limiting our operations to the Shebaa farms). Because the Shebaa farms are occupied Lebanese territory, and no one can deny our right to resist there. But after the (August 2019) Israeli attacks, we no longer differentiate between the Shebaa farms and the international border, (and we can retaliate wherever we want). We were done with that distinction since the last incident. Quite frankly, the Resistance fighters were quite capable of striking a military position with missiles, destroying its buildings & equipment, filming the attack and broadcasting the images in the media, shouting Allahu Akbar, and proclaiming that we had retaliated for the martyrdom of our brother. Of course, no soldiers would have been killed or injured (because Israel evacuated them or entrenched them in bunkers), and maybe even as they did for the Shebaa Farms show, they would have provided us with the ladder to get off our tree (and end this round while saving face); or, as they did for (our strike near the) Avivim (barracks on September 1, 2019), they would have brought in a helicopter, stretchers, false wounded soldiers, that’s all, and it would all be over. But that was not our goal at any time.

We do not run after media (hype), or after responses aimed at boosting morale, not at all. There is an equation we want to confirm. There is an equation we want to confirm. Today, I will be more clear than ever about this equation. Let Israel understand this: every time you kill one of our fighters, we will kill one of your soldiers. Period. This is the equation. If you kill one of us, we won’t (just) hit one of your positions, barracks, equipment, tanks, etc. Israel has all the money in the world. They would replace them easily. This is not what creates an equation of deterrence against Israel. Israel knows very well, even if this is the first time that I have expressed myself so clearly, through its observation of all our movements during the last weeks, that we are not seeking to destroy an (empty) vehicle: Israel has us offered vehicles (to strike), but we knew they were self-piloted, and we didn’t hit them. We could have hit them. Israel knows very well that we are not looking for (vain) military success to save face, it knows very well that we are looking to kill one of its soldiers. And he hid all his soldiers. He hid all his soldiers. They are holed up like rats. It is a point of strength of the Resistance (which has been manifesting itself) for weeks. This is not a point of weakness. It is not a failure. We act with precision, and want to hit a real target, not be baited by an illusory target or make (vain) media hype. The Resistance is serious in its desire to fulfill this mission (killing an Israeli soldier). Israel (ardently) hopes that we’ll strike anything, to end this (unsustainable) waiting, and to return to normal in northern occupied Palestine. But as far as we are concerned, we see things differently.

Even in what happened a few days ago (on August 26), when Israel fired phosphorus shells and flare shells, and unfortunately some shells hit houses, and targets of a farming association named Fruits & Vegetables Without Borders, thank God no one was injured or killed by all these strikes, and the damage was only material. We did not participate in any skirmishes (that day), we did not open fire (not even to retaliate). This is what the Israeli (enemy) would have wanted. He would have liked us to (shoot back) so that they’d be able to say that there were strikes or shots from each side, forest fires on each side, which would have settled things and reset the counters to zero. But we consider (that a futile skirmish) would have made the blood of our martyr vain, and weakened the equation of deterrence.

What Israel did a few days ago, and what it did a few weeks ago by touching, admittedly by mistake, a civilian home, all of this is duly noted, and Israel will pay the bill in full. As far as we are concerned, it is an absolute and irrevocable decision. It is only a matter of time, and depends only on the opportunities which will present themselves on the ground. And frankly, we’re in no rush. We are not eager to strike back today or tomorrow. And we do not consider it a sign of weakness if it takes time because no target that would allow us to achieve our goal is presented to us. Ultimately, you won’t be able to stay holed up in your holes forever. In a week or two, a month, two or three months, or more, you will have to go out. Time is not running out for us. No one is pressing us on the question of time. Eventually you’ll come out on the road, and we’ll hit you, thus confirming this equation. And any threats from Netanyahu, Gantz or Chief of Staff Kochavi and others will never stop us from achieving a goal shaped by thousands of martyrs.

Until an Israeli soldier is killed, terror will continue to reign in northern occupied Palestine, both among Israeli soldiers and settlers: Lebanese homes having been hit, strikes against civilians are likely. As happened last summer, Hezbollah’s deadly response will not lead to an escalation, because Israel is eager to end it, ready to conclude a truce at any cost. But whatever the case, Israel’s spokespersons, intellectually & morally colonized, will continue to unmask themselves through their lies, which perpetuate a myth of invincibility and impunity that the Israelis themselves no longer believe in since 2000 & 2006, but which remains significant in the East and the West, as the belief in Jewish supremacy and Arab backwardness are widespread.

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“Any amount counts, because a little money here and there, it’s like drops of water that can become rivers, seas or oceans…” Hassan Nasrallah


‘Israeli’ Media: Hezbollah Will Ruin Our Holidays

‘Israeli’ Media: Hezbollah Will Ruin Our Holidays

By Staff

‘Israeli’ enemy’s media outlets cited the Zionist intelligence estimations that Hezbollah will retaliate for the martyrdom of Mujahid Ali Kamel Mohsen before the New Jewish Year [between September 18 and 20].

In light of this, ‘Israel’ Hayom newspaper noted that the high preparedness along the northern borders will continue, adding that the ‘Israeli’ army’s estimations provide that Hezbollah is determined to carry out its operation before the Jewish holidays.

As for the suggested responses, options don’t exclude shelling Har Dov [occupied Shebaa Farms], an infiltration operation, launching an anti-armor missile, or firing using a light weapon, among other options as stated by the Zionist media.

‘Israel’ Hayom added that the ‘Israeli’ army doesn’t find that Hezbollah is concerned with an inclusive confrontation, therefore, it will attempt to concentrate its operation against a military target.



Dummy Soldiers And Abandoned Battle Tanks: Israel Prepares For War With  Hezbollah

Hikers in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights found at least 5 armed and unguarded Merkava Mk. IV battle tanks.

The doors of the battle tanks were open with equipment and munitions left completely unguarded inside. The incident took place amid the growing tensions between Hezbollah and the Israeli Defense Forces in both the Golan Heights area and along the Israeli-Lebanese contact line.

During the past weeks, the Israeli military was actively deploying troops and equipment to reinforce their positions in these areas. It is highly likely that the abandoned battle tanks were a part of these reinforcements. So, if Israeli sources do not know how to explain this failure, they can easily blame Hezbollah.

Indeed, Israel is already taking steps to do this. On August 29, the Lebanese group’s Central Media released a video of the incident that took place about a week ago. The video showed a dummy soldier moving amid a cloud of thick smoke on the Israeli-Lebanese separation line. Two Merkava IV battle tanks of the IDF were guarding the “robot soldier.” The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) often use such “dummy targets” in an attempt to trick Hezbollah in times of tensions.

On August 26, IDF aircraft carried out several airstrikes on what it called “observation posts” of Hezbollah near the contact line in southern Lebanon. The IDF said the strikes were a response to a security incident, in which shots were fired at an Israeli force operating near the town of al-Manar. The incident, which took place at 22:40 on August 25, resulted in no casualties, according to the IDF’s statement.

“The IDF considers the Lebanese government responsible for what happens from its territory,” Lt. Col. Avichay Adraee, a spokesman for the IDF, said, adding: “We view the incident with extreme seriousness, like every attempt to violate the sovereignty of the State of Israel, and our forces will remain in a state of great readiness to preserve the sovereignty of Israel and the security of the population as needed.”

Thus, the IDF reinforced its threats to carry out strikes on Lebanon in response to any attack or provocation from this direction. Apparently, the IDF sees the possible strikes on “dummy soldiers” intentionally put in danger areas on the contact line with Lebanon as one of such attacks. Lebanese sources claim that the IDF is intentionally seeking a pretext for military actions against Lebanon.

Meanwhile, Secretary-General of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah vowed that Hezbollah will kill an Israeli soldier every time the Israeli military kills one of his group’s fighters. The Lebanese leader made the new threat in a televised speech commemorating the 10th of Muharram, a holy Islamic day highly admired by Shiites, on August 30. The Hezbollah-Israeli tensions seem to be ready to explode with an open military confrontation at any moment.


“Israelis” Await Hezbollah’s Response in the North

“Israelis” Await Hezbollah’s Response in the North

Translated by Staff

Tal Lev-Ram, a correspondent for “Israel’s” Maariv newspaper, is forecasting a tense and heated phase for the “Israeli” military along the norther frontier in the near future. The outlook comes despite the “relative calm” on the ground and civilian life carrying on as normal.

The reporter examined recent statements by Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah regarding the open account with the enemy – the party will continue to collect from the “Israeli” army. He said that this did not surprise the “Israeli” security establishment.

Lev-Ram pointed out that the assessment confirms that Sayyed Nasrallah’s objective is a limited operation aimed at killing an “Israeli” soldier in response to the killing of a Hezbollah member in an attack attributed to “Israel” in Syria about a month ago.

He added that there are those in the occupation army who don’t believe that the high level of tension that may last for a long time warrants imposing restrictions on civilian routines in the north, whether on the settlers living in the region or on visitors to the occupied Galilee and Golan.

According to the reporter, the assessment of the occupation army “indicates that Hezbollah will continue its attempts to carry out an operation along the border, as it tried the last two times using precise tools and snipers so that the operation does not get out of control.” 

“Nevertheless, the army takes into account the possibility of an anti-armor missile being launched by Hezbollah at its forces, and that is why its officials on the ground strictly prevent and limit entry to threatened areas in Lebanon and avoid committing tactical mistakes in the area where Hezbollah continues to search for a target.”

In light of the tense situation in the region and Hezbollah’s assertion that it will continue attempting to carry out an operation against “Israeli” forces, the state of high alert may  spill over into the Jewish holiday season, which starts on September 18 and continues until the end of the month and includes the Jewish New Year and the Day of Atonement.

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Zionists Got Talent? Resistance Spots ‘Weak Performance’ Along Lebanese Border

Zionists Got Talent? Resistance Spots ‘Weak Performance’ Along Lebanese Border

By Staff

The ‘Israeli’ military owes whoever came up with this ‘genius’ thought a prize!

Hezbollah’s military media spotted the latest worth-mocking achievement the ‘Israeli’ occupation military has scored along the occupied Palestinian border with Lebanon.

It seems that the nightmare stalking the ‘Israeli’ establishment’s existence started looping into a continuous show. The anticipated Hezbollah retaliation to the ‘Israeli’ assassination of one of its fighters in Syria is more of which turning into a Hezbollahmania.

Added to its one year-old using of mannequins inside an ‘Israeli’ military vehicle to pretend that its soldiers are watching along the South Lebanon border, the enemy fixed a soldier-like robot in an exposed attempt to allure the resistance to a military action, that perhaps it wanted to try if it serves as the much awaited anytime possible offensive.

Poor Zionists! Maybe their fear has turned into a sickness. Sometime they imagine ghosts and start a war with their own personnel, and they think that the resistance is shallow enough to mistake a goal to another.

The satirical performance the ‘Israeli’ military presented -entre nous- will make the viewer laugh out loud. It is recommended to replay it time and again.

‘Israel’s’ sickness, pretending that it is undefeatable, had pushed it so far to commit embarrassing and unfixable actions. It, however, has been viewed in all levels as an icon of defeat and failure. It actually doesn’t even master performing in a sketch it already authored, or at the best case, wanted.

The question now is what would come next? Would the Zionists’ talent improve or they will -most probably- lose the final show?

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After Mannequin, Fearful Israeli Army Uses Robot at Lebanon Border

 August 29, 2020

Israeli robot Lebanon border

It seems that the Israeli fear of Hezbollah’s retaliation to the killing of one of its fighters in Syria has gone beyond ‘innovation’. Last year, the Israeli occupation put a mannequin inside military vehicles at the border with Lebanon in a bid to create illusive target. The mannequin was shortly discovered by Hezbollah back then.

Israeli Mannequin Lebanon border
Israeli occupation forces put mannequin inside a military vehicle at the border with Lebanon in August 2019 in a bid to deceive the Resistance.

However, this year’s version witnessed some change, with occupation soldiers resorting to a new technique: a robot.

According to Hezbollah’s War Media Center, 3 Israeli Merkava tanks crossed the technical fence on Sunday (August 23) without crossing the Blue Line in the vicinity of Mais Al-Jabal Lebanese border town.

“The occupation forces fired smoke bombs as they fixed a soldier-like robot at the area in a failed attempt to allure the Resistance,” the War Media Center added.

It also published a photo and a video (posted by Unews agency) showing the robot at the area.


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