ماذا سيفعل الأميركيون لضمان أسواق النفط؟

يونيو 14, 2019

ناصر قنديل

– ليس من إثبات قانوني على مسؤولية إيران عن أي من الحوادث التي تصيب سوق النفط وتتسبب بالمزيد من التدهور في استقراره والمزيد من الصعود في أسعاره، لكن الأكيد أن ما تشهده منطقة الخليج من حوادث تستهدف سوق النفط يتمّ على خلفية النظر إلى مشهد التوتر الناتج عن الاستهداف الأميركي لقدرة إيران على تصدير نفطها من جهة، والرد الإيراني القائم على معادلة، إذا لم نستطع تصدير نفطنا فإن غيرنا لن يستطيع ذلك أيضاً، والعالم كله ينظر للتصعيد القائم الآن وفقاً لمعادلة أبعد من كيف تثبت واشنطن قوتها، أو كيف تردّ واشنطن على ما تتهم إيران به، فالسؤال الكبير دولياً هو مَن يضمن عودة الاستقرار إلى سوق النفط وإلى أسعاره؟

– إذا سلكت واشنطن طريق الاستهداف العسكري المباشر أو غير المباشر، الضيّق والمحدود أو الأوسع، فإن ذلك سيعني تصاعد الوضع أكثر واستدراج ردود على الردود من نوعها، مباشرة أو غير مباشرة، محدودة أو واسعة النطاق، لكن الأكيد هو أن سوق النفط ستبلغ المزيد من الاضطراب والأسعار ستبلغ المزيد من السقوف العالية، وإذا سلكت واشنطن طريق التجاهل واكتفت بالتحذير والسعي لردود دبلوماسيّة، فإن ذلك يقول إن الخط البياني للأحداث التي استهدفت سوق النفط سيتصاعد وبات هو الحاكم المسيطر على معادلات هذا السوق، وعنوانها، إن لم تستطع إيران تصدير نفطها فإن غيرها لن يستطيع.

– بالتوازي تتبقى ثلاثة أسابيع أمام نهاية مهلة الستين يوماً التي ستبادر إيران بنهايتها إلى التخصيب المرتفع لليورانيوم والتخزين لليورانيوم المخصب، وصولاً لامتلاك ما قالت واشنطن ودول الغرب إنه نقطة الخطر، اي امتلاك إيران ما يكفي لإنتاج أول قنبلة نووية، رغم قرارها بعدم فعل ذلك. والسؤال الموازي ماذا ستفعل واشنطن عندها، أو ماذا ستفعل واشنطن قبلها لمنع بلوغ تلك اللحظة، وبمعزل عن المسؤوليات القانونية التي لا تفيد في مثل هذه الحالات تواجه واشنطن أخطر اختبار لمشهد قوتها على الساحة الدولية حيث تبدو كل الخيارات صعبة، ويبدو الزمن الذي تحتاجه واشنطن لاختبار فعالية إجراءاتها الاقتصادية التصعيدية بوجه إيران أكبر بكثير من الزمن الذي وضعت فيه طهران واشنطن أمام اللحظات الحرجة لضمان استقرار سوق النفط ومواجهة مستقبل ملفها النووي.

– الطريق السالك الوحيد أمام واشنطن لتفادي الأسوأ هو استغلال الوقت المتبقي قبل دخول مهلة الستين يوماً حيّز التنفيذ في الشق النووي، والذهاب إلى قمة العشرين في نهاية الشهر الحالي بخريطة طريق، لتأجيل متبادل أميركي وإيراني للحزمة الأخيرة من الخطوات التصعيديّة لستة شهور تمنح خلالها الوساطات الفرص المناسبة للوصول إلى مبادرات سياسية بديلة. وهذا يعني تراجع واشنطن عن كل ما صدر عنها من عقوبات منذ نهاية شهر نيسان الماضي عندما قامت بإلغاء الاستثناءات الممنوحة على شراء النفط والغاز من إيران لثماني دول، وما تلاها من عقوبات على المعادن والبتروكيماويات الإيرانية، مقابل تراجع إيران عن مهلة الستين يوماً، وتوصل الدول المعنية لضمانات للتعاون في منع أي استهداف لأسواق النفط، وسيتلقف الروس والصينيّون والأوروبيّون واليابانيّون هذه المبادرة وتتجاوب معها إيران، التي كان مدخل خيارها التصعيدي التصعيد الأميركي الجديد.

– تبريد التصعيد سيفتح الطريق للبحث عن سقوف منخفضة لتسويات واقعية في سورية واليمن بعيداً عن المطالب الأميركية الوهمية والخيالية. ويفتح طريق تجميد النزاع حول الملف النووي الذي لا يزعج إيران خروج واشنطن منه ولا يريح واشنطن عودتها إليه، ويصعب على الطرفين التنازل في بنوده، وإلا فإن الرعونة الأميركية التي كانت وراء الخطوات الأخيرة في التصعيد تحتاج لخريطة طريق نحو الحرب والفوز بها، وادعاء واشنطن بامتلاكها كذبة ستفضحها كل محاولة للعب بالنار في منطقة تقف على برميل بارود، ربما تكون كلفة الحروب فيه أعلى بكثير من كلفة التسويات، مع فارق أن بين خاسر وخاسر سيختلف الوضع كثيراً. فهناك مَن سيخسر مكانته العالمية كحال أميركا ووجوده كحال «إسرائيل» ونظام حكمه كحال أنظمة الخليج، فوق الخسائر البشرية والمادية المؤلمة التي سيتساوى فيها مع إيران وحلفائها.

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Imam Khamenei Receives Japan PM: Trump Not Worthy Of Exchanging Messages With

By Staff, Agencies

Leader of the Islamic Revolution His Eminence Imam Sayyed Ali Khamenei dismissed US President Donald Trump as a person not worthy of exchanging messages with.

Ayatollah Khamenei made the remarks in a Thursday meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who told the Leader he was carrying a message from the US president.

“We have no doubt in Abe’s goodwill and seriousness; but regarding what you mentioned from US president, I don’t consider Trump as a person deserving to exchange messages with; I have no response for him & will not answer him,” Imam Khamenei said.

The Islamic Republic has no trust in the US and the previous bitter experience we had in negotiating with the US within JCPOA will never be repeated again, because no free & wise nation would accept negotiations under pressure, Imam Khamenei stressed.

His Eminence further noted that “Our problem with the US is not the issue of regime change; because even if they pursue such a thing, they won’t be able to achieve it, just as previous US presidents tried in vain to destroy the Islamic Republic over the past 40 years.”

The Supreme Leader further voiced opposition to nuclear weapons, “our religious verdicts prohibit building nuclear weapons. But know that if we ever intended to produce nuclear weapons, the US wouldn’t be able to do anything against that, & US’s prohibition would never make an obstacle.”

“The US doesn’t have, by any means, the competency to say which country should or shouldn’t possess nuclear weapons; because the US has thousands of nuclear warheads in its arsenals,” His Eminence added.

Imam Khamenei further told Abe that “US president met and talked with you a few days ago, including about Iran. But after returning from Japan, he immediately imposed sanctions on Iran’s petrochemical industry.”

Is this a message of honesty? Does that show he is willing to hold genuine negotiations? Imam Khamenei asked.

“After the nuclear deal, the first one to immediately breach the JCPOA was Obama; the same person who had requested negotiations with Iran & had sent a mediator. This is our experience, and Mr. Abe, know that we won’t repeat the same experience.”

You said Mr. Abe that Trump has said negotiations with the US would lead to Iran’s progress. By the Grace of God, without negotiations & despite sanctions, we will progress.

Imam Khamenei also said that it’s good that you acknowledge the fact that the Americans have always wanted to impose their own thoughts and beliefs on other nations; and it’s also good to know that the Americans observe no limit in imposing their views on others.

“I welcome your suggestion to expand relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Japan is an important country in Asia and if they are willing to expand relations with Iran, they should demonstrate their firm determination, just as some important countries have done so.”

Abe is the first Japanese head of state who visits Iran over the past four decades. He is heading a high-ranking delegation, and has met with Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani and the country’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif.

Abe and his Foreign Minister Taro Kono arrived in Tehran on Wednesday.

 

No Negotiations with Terrorists, Zarif Says On Talking With US

By Staff, Agencies

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif conditioned any talk with the Americans to Washington’s giving up its policy of using ‘economic terrorism’ against Iranian people.

Zarif in an interview with the London-based al-Araby TV said the US waged an economic war against Iranian people which amounts to economic terrorism.

It means that the US is exerting illegal pressure on the people to reach its political goals, he said.

Nobody negotiates with terrorists, Zarif stressed.

There is no difference between military and economic wars, the top diplomat said, adding that the main damage will be on the region as in a tense situation anything might occur.

We have good relations with most of the countries in the region, Zarif added, commenting on Iran’s ties with the region, arguing that a couple of countries in the region mistakenly believe in the security provided by the US.

What “we want from the US is to avoid intervening in Iran’s relations with other countries or pressing them to breaching their obligations”, the Iranian top diplomat said in the interview released on Wednesday evening.

The Americans are facing myriads of problems caused by their past wrong decisions, he said.

The problems, however, will not be solved by pressuring Iran, the foreign minister said.

He also urged the US to stop supporting the occupation of the Palestine territories, the holy city of Quds and Golan Heights by the Zionist regime, and putting an end to their efforts in advancing the so-called ‘Deal of the Century’.

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Resistance report: Syrian Army offensive stalls as both sides trade blows

June 08, 2019

by Aram Mirzaei for The Saker Blog

Resistance report: Syrian Army offensive stalls as both sides trade blows
It’s been over a month now since the Syrian Army launched it’s long awaited Idlib offensive. The Syrian Arab Army and the jihadist rebels of Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham are involved in the deadliest battle of the month in northwestern Hama. What began as a successful month for the Syrian Army has since turned in a blood bath with all warring parties trading heavy offensives along the Hama-Idlib axis. This week alone has resulted in well over 100 casualties for the jihadists while the Syrian Army has suffered almost 40 casualties. It is quite noticeable that Ankara has a hand in this since Turkish made weapons have been found on several frontlines in the hands of these terrorists. On top of that, Ankara manages to yet again negotiate a short lived ceasefire which Moscow agreed to, yet as per usual, the dishonourable jihadists used this opportunity to regroup and rearm in preparation for their massive counter offensive.

It has to be said, Moscow keeps getting fooled for some reason to agree on these damned ceasefires, that keep prolonging the inevitable doom of the monsters occupying the Idlib province. This time Moscow, Damascus and Tehran have had a golden opportunity to finish the jihadists off as Washington seems rather uninterested in getting involved with this offensive. I say this because Washington has been unusually quiet this time around, save for some Sunday evening Trump tweet claiming that he was “hearing word” that Russia, Syria, and to a lesser extent, Iran, were indiscriminately bombing the Idlib province. Even the western media that usually gets all fired up about their beloved terrorists in Idlib have been relatively quiet, could it be that they are losing interest now that Washington has its hands full with a coup attempt in Caracas and building up for a full scale war in the Middle East?

Washington seems to have other things in mind as Bolton and Pompeo seem hell bent on starting wars with the Islamic Republic and Venezuela, while Europe seems too busy fumbling in the dark over the JCPOA.

This leaves the jihadists with few allies except for Ankara which I am convinced is playing a double side game with Moscow and Washington. The opportunists in Ankara have for long played both sides in Syria as they claim they are allied with Moscow and Tehran yet keep supporting terrorist forces against Damascus and her allies. It is deeply frustrating to hear Ankara strike a deal with Moscow over Syria’s survival and preservation only to hear the Turkish president or foreign minister the very next day claim that “the Assad regime has killed 1 million people”. At some point Moscow must force Ankara to stop with this insane approach and choose sides once and for all, or this war will continue for another decade as Ankara will only get bolder by the day.

Elsewhere, ISIS terrorists hiding in caves in eastern Homs are taking advantage of the massive Syrian Army build up near the Idlib-Hama axis to launch hit and run attacks and kidnapping operations on inexperienced garrison units near the Palmyra front. I really never could understand why Moscow and Damascus always allows a few of these terrorists to remain after every major operation they launch on their territories. It always comes to bite them back later on as these terrorists never seem to back down or capitulate anyways. Meanwhile, terrorist benefactor Israel has been active over Syrian skies once more after claiming that shells were fired into the occupies Golan Heights from the Syrian side. Not that I ever believed in what the Zionist state has ever claimed as an excuse for attacking Syria, but there has been no fighting in the Quneitra province for almost a full year now since the jihadist militants were expelled from the entire southern parts of the country last year. Of course the Zionist state doesn’t ever bother to provide any evidence for their claims so it can be concluded that the pretext was totally made up to cover their true intentions, to target any advanced weaponry Syria might possess. The attack targeted Syria’s strategic T4 airbase, known for being used by both Russian and Iranian military personnel. Israel very likely informed Russia before the attack, which is why they were able to avoid the latter at the T4 airbase.

Since the start of June, the Israeli military has conducted at least two attacks on Syrian military installations, resulting in the death of at least a half dozen soldiers. Fighting in Syria intensifies while Washington is targeting any oil shipments coming into Syria in its campaign to cripple Syria financially. Pressure on Tehran and Hezbollah is also intensifying as the threat of war still looms in the region with Washington and Tel Aviv’s continued posturing and Saudi Arabia’s pathetic false flag attacks in the Persian Gulf region which they as per usual try to blame on Iran.

It looks like it’s going to be a very hot summer this year for the Resistance Axis. It will take much effort and strategic planning to counter these foul plans hatched by the Zionist Empire.

معادلات الصراع والتفاوض بين طهران وواشنطن

يونيو 3, 2019

ناصر قنديل

– التسوية صعبة بين أميركا وإيران إلى حد الاستحالة، ليس بسبب السقوف العالية للخطابات المتبادلة، أو الشروط المتقابلة، بل لأن القضايا الحقيقيّة للصراع يصعب إيجاد تسويات فيها تمنح الفريقين المتقابلين صفة رابح ورابح، وفي قلب هذه القضايا مستقبل «إسرائيل» وأمنها، وقد بلغ المأزق الذي تعيشه «إسرائيل» مدىً يجعلها عاجزة عن تحمل تبعات أي تسوية بالمطلق تضم طهران وواشنطن لا تلتزم فيها إيران بوقف دعمها لحركات المقاومة، وتمنح «إسرائيل» عناصر أمن واطمئنان تفتقدها، وهو ما قصده وزير خارجية عمان بعد لقائه برئيس حكومة الاحتلال بأن «إسرائيل» تحتاج أن نطمئنها إلى أمنها ومستقبلها. والقصد بالـ «نحن» ليس حكام الخليج، بل طهران، وفي هذا الشأن المسألة أكبر من التسوية مع إيران فقوى المقاومة في المنطقة نمت وكبرت وتعاظمت قدراتها وثقتها بنفسها وباتت تفرض معادلات قوة وردع يصعب بل يستحيل كسرها. وبنسبة لا تقل عن «إسرائيل» يعاني حكام الخليج من تداعيات سقوط مهابتهم أمام قوى محلية يتقدمها أنصار الله في اليمن، في معادلة تتصاعد وتكبر ويصعب فيها التراجع إلى الخلف.

– الحرب بالمقابل بين أميركا وإيران أكثر من صعبة بل هي مستحيلة، لأن القدرة الأميركية على إلحاق الأذى بإيران لا نقاش فيها، وبالمقابل القدرة التي تمتلكها إيران وقوى المقاومة على إلحاق الأذى بالقوات والمصالح الأميركية في المنطقة، وبـ«إسرائيل» وبدول الخليج أكبر من قدرة واشنطن وحلفائها في الخليج و«إسرائيل» على التحمل، ونتائج الحرب انفجار مؤشرات أسعار النفط، وإقفال الأبواب أمام إمكانية قطاف سياسي للحرب، التي تعلن إيران أنها لا تسعى إليها، وباتت واشنطن تعلم أن شروط خوضها غير متاحة، ويصعب توفيرها، سواء بحجم ما تحتاج من قوى عسكرية وقدرات مالية وتحضيرات لوجستية وسياسية، وزمن وخريطة طريق، وضمان عدم التوسّع والإصابة القاتلة من الضربة الأولى، ومنع استيلاد إيران لأول قنبلة نووية في ظل الحرب، ولذلك يتصدر المشهد بعد أول اختبار لأمن النفط، التمهيد للتراجع عن التهديد.

– بالتوازي فإن الحدّ الأدنى لأي تفاهم تقدر واشنطن على المجاهرة به، ولو لم يتضمّن ما يفيد «إسرائيل» وحكومات الخليج، يتّصل بالتفاهم النووي والبرنامج الصاروخي الإيراني، وهما أمران لا تستطيع إيران التراجع فيهما، لأن القبول بإعادة وضع التفاهم النووي على الطاولة يعني الاستعداد لإلغاء التفاهم الجديد من أي رئيس جديد للتفاوض من جديد على تفاهم جديد جديد، وتمسك إيران بالتفاهم سقفاً يعني سواها من دول كبرى وقعت على التفاهم ولا يسعها القبول برسالة واشنطن التي تقول إن لا قيمة لأي قوة في العالم ولا أي توقيع ولا أي قرار، وأن الرئيس الأميركي إمبراطور العالم الجديد يملك بشطحة قلمه العريض أن يحلّ مجلس الأمن والدول الدائمة العضوية، ويجعل القرارات الدولية أقل من قيمة الحبر الذي وقعت فيه، والقبول بوضع البرنامج الصاروخي الإيراني على طاولة التفاوض يعني أن إيران ستتقبل التفاوض والتفتيش على منشآتها العسكرية كأمر واقع يلغي كل قيمة لقدراتها العسكرية ومكانتها ومهابتها وصفتها الرادعة.

– بالمقابل لا تستطيع واشنطن العودة للتفاهم النووي كما كان واعتباره إطاراً صالحاً للتفاوض، من ضمن صيغة الخمسة زائداً واحداً، التي أنتجته، كما لا تستطيع واشنطن التراجع عن العقوبات تمهيداً للتفاوض. وهذه شروط الحد الأدنى التي يمكن لإيران قبولها، لذلك تتمّ الوساطات الجدية بكل جدية لمنع التصعيد أكثر مما تأمل هذه الوساطات فتح قنوات التفاوض للتمهيد للتفاهم، والتفاوض غير المباشر الذي تقوم به سويسرا واليابان، ويمكن أن تنضم إليهما روسيا، هو تمهيد لربط النزاع وليس لصناعة الاتفاقات، وبناء عليه وضع صيغة آمنة للتساكن تحت سقف النزاع، ووضع قواعد اشتباك سياسية ومالية وعسكرية تظلل هذا التساكن الطويل، ربما حتى نهاية ولاية الرئيس الأميركي العام المقبل، بل ربما حتى نهاية عمر التفاهم النووي العام 2025، وربط النزاع وقواعد الاشتباك لا بد أن تتضمنا تفاهمات تتصل بتدفق النفط والحد المقبول من الضغط لتطبيق العقوبات، ومحاولات تسويات في اليمن وفي سورية، على قاعدة اعتماد التغاضي حيث يصعب الحصول على التراضي.

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Imam Khamenei Labels Negotiation with US as ‘Total Loss’

By Staff, Agencies

Leader of the Islamic Revolution His Eminence Imam Sayyed Ali Khamenei ruled out the possibility of talks between Tehran and Washington, saying such negotiations will be “fruitless”, “harmful”, and “a total loss”.

“The Islamic Republic of Iran will absolutely not sit for talks with America … because first, it bears no fruit and second, it is harmful,” Imam Khamenei said in a meeting with a number of university professors, elites and researchers in Tehran on Wednesday.

Imam Khamenei referred to negotiation as a tactic used by Americans to complement their strategy of pressure. “This is actually not negotiation; it’s rather a means for picking the fruits of pressure.”

The only way to counter this trick, His Eminence said, is to utilize the means of pressure available for use against Americans. “If they are used properly, the Americans will either stop or decrease pressures.”

However, Imam Khamenei further warned against being deceived by the US plot, saying that the Islamic Republic must use the leverage at its disposal to counter the US’ pressures; otherwise, being deceived into negotiation would be a “total loss”.

Imam Khamenei said Iran’s leverage is not military unlike what the anti-Iran propaganda says, even though that option is not off the table in case of necessity.

His Eminence referred to the recent decision by the Supreme National Security Council to reduce some of Iran’s commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal with the world, and described it as one of the means that Iran can use against the US’ pressures.

“The leverage Iran has used for now is the recent SNSC decision, but we won’t remain at this level forever, and in the next phase, if necessary, we’ll use other means of pressure,” Imam Khamenei warned.

Back on May 8, 2019, on the anniversary of the US’ withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran said that it will halt implementing some terms of the nuclear deal until parties to the deal other than US take action to mitigate the negative impacts of US decision in May 2018 to withdraw from the agreement.

The Islamic Republic considers that other parties to the JCPOA, particularly the E3 – France, Britain, and Germany – have failed so far to compensate for the US withdrawal and help Iran reap the economic dividends of the 2015 nuclear deal.

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Political Analyst: US-Iran War Highly Unlikely

By Nour Rida

Tehran – US President Donald Trump keeps sending warmongering messages to everyone. He threatens China with trade war on tech, he threatens Cuba with “full” embargo on Venezuela, threatens Russia over Venezuela too, he his ‘war maniac’ advisor John Bolton, as North Korea calls him, sends threats after Pyongyang’s missile tests.

Tensions started to mount between Tehran and Washington in May 2018, when Trump pulled his country out of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA], and re-imposed harsh sanctions against the Islamic Republic in defiance of global criticisms.

The US seems to maximize the suffering of the Iranian people by the harsh sanctions it imposes. And its policies of belligerence and aggression are not new. The US has been supporting terrorist groups like al-Qaeda and Daesh [Arabic acronym for “ISIS” / “ISIL”], supported Saddam Hussein in his war against Iran in the 80s; it imposed starvation on Yemeni civilians including women and children, destroyed Libya and Iraq. This has been a general pattern Washington has been pursuing. Trump uses genocidal language however Western mainstream media is not outrageous on such language. Now amid all this, chances of war are close to zero, because the US knows the consequences well.

Also, with Trump’s unstable and fluctuating policies, he seems to be on a mission of trial and error to see what might work and bring Iran to its knees, but Iranians think that is way too far from reality. One day its war, another day “we need regime change”, then later a “call me if you want” message, then threats again and finally a “we seek no regime change” in Iran statement.

By the beginning of May, Trump made threats against the Islamic Republic of Iran, in what sounded like hitting the drums of war. However, the Iranian side made it clear that no one threatens them and that if there would be a major loser from an all-inclusive war in the region it would be the US and its allies.

Last week, as escalation increased, Trump posted an anti-Iran tweet after a Sunday night rocket attack on the Green Zone of the Iraqi capital Baghdad, where the Iraqi government’s administrative buildings and foreign missions, including the US embassy, are located. The Trump administration rushed to accuse Iran of being the perpetrator.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has warned US President Donald Trump to avoid threatening Iranians, advising him to try respect as it is the only approach to the Iranian nation, which may bear fruit.

Just today, Trump said during a news conference with Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Tokyo “I really believe that Iran would like to make a deal, and I think that’s very smart of them, and I think that’s a possibility to happen.”

“It has a chance to be a great country with the same leadership,” Trump said. “We aren’t looking for regime change — I just want to make that clear. We are looking for no nuclear weapons.”

Political Analyst: US-Iran War Highly Unlikely

Touching on the matter, Political analyst and Tehran University Professor Dr. Mohamad Marandi told al-Ahed news he thinks war is highly unlikely, and the view in Tehran is also the same for a number of reasons. “First of all, if there is a war, then all the oil and gas installations in the Gulf will be destroyed in a cross fire. The oil tankers too in Oman and the Gulf will be destroyed, the Strait of Hormuz will be shut but I think that would be a minor issue compared to the long-term damage that will be caused to all the facilities, installations, and infrastructure in the region which will take many years to repair.”

He went on to say that “There will be no oil and gas flowing out from the region for many years. On the other I hand, I think that the US will be driven out of countries like Iraq and Afghanistan because Iran’s friends in the region will not accept a war on Iran.”

Political analyst Dr. Marandi also said “I would assume that oil exports of Iraq would also be a major problem because of the conflict with the Americans. So, it’s the issue of American forces being driven out of the region by opponents of American aggression. The US would be blamed globally; it will bring about a major global depression, something that we have not seen in modern time, the equivalent of which we have not seen in modern history.”

Further explaining what the situation would be liked, Dr. Marandi said “We will have millions of people on the move, with millions of refugees moving towards Europe since countries like Saudi Arabia and the Emirates would not last long without oil exports because they are completely dependent. People in other countries also will be on the move and there will be an economic and humanitarian catastrophe and the Americans cannot win the war, they create major damage to Iran. But, the self-inflicted wounds would mean it would be a major defeat for the United States, an unprecedented defeat for the United States.”

The expert concluded saying “These reasons combined; Iran’s formidable military capabilities, Iran’s many allies across the region, and US relative isolation across the world that makes these factors even more devastating, meaning the destruction of the infrastructure, the flow of refugees and the expulsion of the Americans from the region.”

Bottom line; this is not something new for the US regime. Trump is not the first person to make threatening statements; Hillary Clinton once threatened that the US could obliterate Iran. Trump is proving to Iran and the world that the Trump regime is not an entity that the Iranians can negotiate with. Trump’s policies are extreme, his positions are constantly shifting and changing, and of course he does not abide by any agreement that he does not like.

Related

Former French Diplomat: Israeli Leaders Want Washington to Engage on Their Behalf in a “Proxy” Military Adventure Against Iran

ST

Created on Friday, 24 May 2019 20:52

(ST)– As a businessman lost in a foreign land, Trump doesn’t care about the art of diplomacy and is unable to have any empathy with the aspirations and feelings of other countries, according to the former French diplomat Prof. Michel Raimbaud, who believes that the “unpredictable President” proved to have adopted as a guideline number one at least for the beginning of his mandate “to destroy everything that Obama was proud of” and considered to be the bulk of his work, externally as well as internally, including the lessening of the conflict with Iran.

The veteran diplomat told the Syria Times e-newspaper: “Any state is good if buying American arms, and bad if refusing to do so or resisting the pressures or the interests of Washington. On this basis, Iran, deeply involved in the Syrian conflict and supporting the legal government along with the Hezbollah, is a Devil belonging to the Axe of Resistance, and having a “strategic” partnership with Russia.

Last but not least, Iran is of course perceived in the States as being a pitiless enemy of Israel.”

 

He pointed out that all the reports by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) do certify that Teheran has perfectly complied with the obligations imposed by the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA).

A crazy story

Nevertheless, Trump’s administration decided on the 8th of May 2019 to withdraw from the Treaty and impose drastic economic sanctions on Iran, accused of developing a ballistic and atomic Program, under the pretext that the Islamic Republic itself had withdrawn (in retaliation).

“For a couple of weeks, America repeatedly threatened to come to War and managed to escalate the political and military tensions in the region. Let’s read to Trump’s tweets or listen to statements by high-ranking US officials (National Security Advisor John Bolton and State Secretary Mark Pompeo to begin with)…There is no doubt that America poses a threat to Iran and to the region at large, and not vice versa,” Prof. Raimbaud said.

He went on to say: “Trump now declares that he wants to negotiate with Iran, expecting the phone call from the Iranian leadership begging for negotiation. That’s a crazy story, but also a perfect illustration of the Nixon/Kissinger “Madman theory” which inspires – as I have noted very often – the neoconservative power in Washington in its comprehensive policy all over the planet and more specifically in the Arab and Muslim World (America must project abroad the impression that a part of its leadership consists of mad and unpredictable persons, in order to frighten and terrorize the enemies).”

He indicated that a single glance at the map of the Middle East provides the answer to the following question: “Does Iran pose a threat to the United States?”

“The Iranian Territory is physically surrounded and besieged by a dense and tight network of US bases, located in neighboring countries (including Turkey, a NATO member). And we must refer to the omnipresence of Israel in the region, as the real “Beating Heart” of the United States.”

“On the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, thousands and thousands of miles away from the Middle East, have a look at the American borders or anywhere on the “new Continent  and you will search in vain to discover any trace of Iranian military presence.”

The professor, in addition, affirmed that the U.S. is responsible for the tensions and the danger of Global War for the time being.

“For the many “experts” who pretend to have some doubts about the real responsibility in the tensions and the danger of Global War for the time being, in the Middle East and elsewhere, I will recall that at least one gross third, if not fifty per cent, of the military expenses in the World, must be attributed to the United States of America,” he stated.

The diplomat added: “All the strategy supporters and blind allies of America should be conscious of this reality, but I am sure that they are…It is the case for Gulf monarchies and…. of course, Israel.”

He made it clear that the relationship between Iran and America until the Fall of the Shah could be qualified as “a strategic partnership against communism”, but the situation was radically disrupted with the advent of the Islamic Revolution in 1979 and the assault on the American Embassy in Teheran. Since then, the atmosphere between the two countries has remained very stormy and disturbed for the last forty years.

“In this context, the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA) in July 2015, commonly known as the “Nuclear Treaty” between Teheran and the Six (US, UK, Germany, France, Russia and China) had slackened the tensions with the western Partners, this appeasement being searched by Obama for ambiguous reasons. The election of Donald Trump after a campaign very aggressive against Iran marked the re-starting-point of the ongoing wave of American hostility,” Prof. Raimbaud stressed.

He referred to the fact that Trump quickly understood that he wouldn’t be in a position to govern without integrating into his staff eminent representatives of the neoconservative “Deep State”, such as John Bolton…, in spite of their frank opposition to his electoral promises or commitments.

In a response to a question about the reason behind Israel’s silence amid growing US-Iran tensions, the diplomat said: “The Israeli government (all the more with Netanyahu) used to have and has got until today many obsessions with all the neighbors, that are considered as potential enemies, beginning with Syria and Hezbollah and Iran. It is well known that the Israeli leaders are dreaming of triggering a War against Iran, one of the countries which feed their nightmare. Having succeeded to make some friends in the Gulf on the basis of a common obsession on an “Iranian danger”, they have done everything and exerted any kind of pressure and blackmail on Washington to engage on their behalf in a “proxy” military adventure against Iran. That’s what is at stake for the time being.”

He concluded by saying: “Right now onwards, why would Israel find it necessary to say something when the tension has reached its upper degree. Why to water your flowers when it is pouring down….?”

US wants to control all the oil in the world

In this context, the International criminal lawyer Christopher C. Black told us that Israel stays quiet because the US orders it to be quiet.

“The US wants to control all the oil in the world if it can and also it wants to control Iran because it brings them closer to encircling Russia,” he said.

Iran does prose a possible threat to US military in the Gulf region.

The Syrian American journalist Steven Sahiounie replied to our question about Israel’s silence by saying: “the Israeli occupation is quiet because they want to appear not involved, but in fact it was Israeli occupation who sent the photos to the US which claimed to show missiles on small boats for Iran.  When all the media wanted to see the photos, the US quickly said new photos showed the missiles were returned.  The US military could not afford to prove that their intelligence is coming from Israel, when everyone knows that Israel is capable of fabrications in order to promote war against Iran.  Israel has to be silent and maintain a low profile.”

He underscored that Iran does prose a possible threat to US military in the Gulf region.

“There is no indication that Iran would attack the US assets, unless Iran was attacked first.  Iran does not want war, but they want sanctions relief, and they know an attack will not help them, in fact it would harm them, so there is no incentive to attack,” the journalist concluded.

Interviewed by: Basma Qaddour

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