التهويل بالحرب

ناصر قنديل

امتلأت خلال يوم أمس، الصحافة الأميركيّة والإسرائيليّة ووسائل الإعلام المموّلة خليجياً بالتقارير التي تصف الشهور الباقية من ولاية الرئيس الأميركي دونالد ترامب بالشديدة الحساسية متضمنة الإشارات لفرضية توجيه ضربة موجعة لإيران قبل نهاية ولاية ترامب وفي السياق استهداف قوى المقاومة، خصوصاً في سورية بضربات متلاحقة. والتقارير لا تُخفي أن المقصود هو قطع الطريق على إمكانية قيام تسويات بين ايران ومعها قوى محور المقاومة في المنطقة من جهة وادارة الرئيس الأميركي المنتخب جو بايدن من جهة مقابلة، بخلق أمر واقع يفرض سياقاً مختلفاً للعلاقات يصعب تخطيه ويدفع المنطقة نحو استقطاب جديد بطابع عسكري تجد الإدارة الجديدة أنها محكومة بالبقاء ضمنه.

الأكيد أن فرضية القيام بحماقة أمر لا يمكن استبعاده مع وجود شخص كدونالد ترامب في البيت الأبيض، علماً أنه أظهر عقلانية عالية في تحمل الضربات الموجعة تفادياً للتصعيد، عندما أُسقطت الطائرة الأميركيّة التجسسيّة العملاقة في الأجواء الإيرانيّة، بحيث بدا تهوره دوراً تمثيلياً يؤديه لشعبويّة انتخابية، وبالتوازي عملياً لا يمكن لإيران ولمحور المقاومة إلا أخذ هذه الفرضيات بحذر شديد والبقاء على جهوزية لمواجهة كل تهديد، لكن السؤال هو من الزاوية التحليلية هل يمكن منح هذا الاحتمال فرصاً حقيقية؟ وهل يشكل سياقاً منطقياً وارداً للتطورات؟

العقبة الأولى التي تعترض هذا الطريق، طالما لا نتحدّث عن عمليات كبرى تغيّر سياق الأحداث في المنطقة، وليس عن عمليات إعلاميّة أو ضربات لأهداف تكتيكيّة تمّ استطلاعها، هي أن قبول ترامب دخول المرحلة الانتقاليّة مع فريق الرئيس المنتخب جو بايدن رغم التمسك بالطعن بالنتائج، له موجبات من أهمها أن تصل التقارير الاستخبارية والتحليلات الأمنية الصادرة عن وكالات المخابرات والبنتاغون للرئيس المنتخب وفريق عمله بالصورة ذاتها التي تصل فيها للرئيس الحالي طيلة الفترة الانتقالية حتى دخول الرئيس المنتخب الى البيت الأبيض، وتالياً فإن القرارات الكبرى التي يفكر بها الرئيس المنتهية ولايته موجبة التداول والتشاور مع الرئيس المنتخب، خصوصاً ما قد يرتب تبعات وتداعيات تحكم ولاية الرئيس المنتخب، فكيف إذا كان قصدها أن تفعل ذلك.

العقبة الثانية هي أن خلق هذا المناخ المطلوب من ترامب وفريقه وحلفائه الإقليميين، خصوصاً ثنائي بنيامين نتنياهو وولي العهد السعودي محمد بن سلمان، يستدعي القيام بعمل كبير لا يمكن لإيران وحلفائها عدم الرد عليه بقوة، خصوصاً أن تفادي الرد على الاستفزازات يطبع أداء محور المقاومة خلال المرحلة الانتقاليّة، وهذا يعني الحاجة الأميركية للقيام بعمل عسكري أمني كبير يجبر محور المقاومة على ردّ يخلق سجالاً عسكرياً، ويفرض إيقاعاً مختلفاً يقطع طريق السياسة أمام إدارة بايدن، وهذا يعني استدراج رد يصيب القواعد العسكرية الأميركية والأساطيل الأميركية في المنطقة، بصورة تلزم واشنطن الدخول في حالة حرب، لكن بلوغ هذه المرحلة لن يكون من دون أن تسبقه مرحلة تكون فيها منشآت كيان الاحتلال الحيويّة ومستوطناته قد تلقت آلاف الصواريخ الثقيلة والدقيقة، وأن تكون منشآت النفط في الخليج، وخصوصاً القواعد العسكرية الخليجية في دول التطبيع قد تلقت نصيبها من الردّ. وهذا في حال حدوثه سيخلق تدحرجاً لتطورات يصعب تحمل نتائجها. فمدن الزجاج قد تتهاوى ومعها حكوماتها واقتصاداتها، وعمق الجليل قد يكون هدفاً لتوغل المقاومة، وكلها ارتدادات يصعب احتواؤها.

العقبة الثالثة أن مثل هذه المواجهة التي تفاداها ترامب طيلة ولايته يحتاج للقيام بها إلى سبب جوهري يتمثل بعمل عدائي قامت به إيران يمكن تسويقه وشرحه للرأي العام الأميركي والعالمي، وهذا لا يبدو وارد الحدوث، كما أن ترامب يعلم بأن المباحثات والتنسيق الاستباقي لمنع التلاعب بمستقبل التفاهم النووي خلال المرحلة الانتقالية من جانب إدارته هو موضوع تنسيق يجري في باريس بين مبعوثي إدارة بايدن برعاية جون كيري ومبعوثي الخارجية الإيرانية برعاية محمد جواد ظريف، حيث تدرس كل الفرضيات وتبحث كل الاحتمالات.

يقول أحد الخبراء، إذا وقعت الحرب فتشوا عن دبي وأبو ظبي على الخريطة، وعن ديمونا وناتانيا، ونيوم، قبل أن تسألوا عن تل أبيب والرياض.

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لبنان في لقاء بومبيو وبن سلمان ونتنياهو

ناصر قنديل

مع تكرار نبأ وصول رئيس حكومة الاحتلال بنيامين نتنياهو يرافقه رئيس الموساد يوسي كوهين إلى مدينة نيوم الساحلية في السعودية التي تشكل عاصمة وليد العهد السعودي محمد بن سلمان للانضمام الى اجتماع وزير الخارجية الأميركية مايك بومبيو وبن سلمان، من أكثر من وسيلة إعلام في كيان الاحتلال، بدأتها صحيفة يديعوت أحرونوت وتلتها إذاعة الجيش في الكيان ثم الإذاعة الرسمية وتوّج بخبر في وكالة رويترز، ورغم صدور النفي السعودي للنبأ، يمكن اعتبار الاجتماع أول أمس مؤكداً، خصوصاً إذا أخذنا بالاعتبار أن الثلاثة، أي فريق الرئيس الأميركي دونالد ترامب ونتنياهو وبن سلمان يشكلون ثلاثياً تجمعه المصيبة والتحديات والمصير، في ضوء ما نجم عن الانتخابات الرئاسية الأميركية، حيث سيخسر بن سلمان ونتنياهو بمثل ما سيخسر ترامب وفريقه، عند التسليم بفوز جو بايدن بالرئاسة وتقدّمه نحو البيت الأبيض، ليس لأن بايدن يمثل مشروعاً مختلفاً عن ترامب في منطلقات العداء لإيران وقوى المقاومة وروسيا والصين، ولا لأنه يحمل تأييداً أقل ليكان الاحتلال وأنظمة الخليج، بل لأن بايدن يمثل القناعة الأميركية بفشل الرهان الذي خاضه الثلاثي ترامب ونتنياهو وبن سلمان بإسقاط التفاهم النووي مع إيران، وبالتوازي سلوك طريق التصعيد مع روسيا والصين، والاعتقاد بأن بمستطاع العقوبات القصوى التي هددت في طريقها أوروبا، يمكن أن تنتج مناخاً تفاوضياً أفضل لحساب أميركا واستطراداً تتمكن من تحسين وضعية السعودية والكيان، وهذا يعني ان انتقال السلطة الى بايدن سيعني العودة للسياسات التي انتهت اليها إدارة أوباما في نهاية اختباراتها لسياسة التصعيد والعقوبات والتلويح بالحرب ونتائج الحرب المحورية في المنطقة التي مثلتها الحرب على سورية.

بسلوك بايدن أعلى درجات الحرص لمنع التداعيات السلبية على كيان الاحتلال والسعودية مع بدء تطبيق سياسات المواءمة مع تراجع الامكانات وفقدان الفرصة لكسر إيران وتطويق روسيا والصين، رغم التمسك بمنطلقات العداء ذاتها، وما تتضمّنه من عودة لمفهوم الانخراط بتفاهمات الواقعية السياسية والانسحاب العسكري، لن يكون ممكناً الحؤول دون تعرّض الكيان والسعودية لهزات كبرى، فالالتزام الدفاعي الأميركي بالسعودية وكيان الاحتلال لن يتبدل، لكن جعل السعودية وكيان الاحتلال موجهاً للسياسة الأميركية، خصوصاً في ما يخصّ التفاهم النووي مع إيران، لن يكون ممكناً، كما لم يكن ممكناً مع الرئيس باراك أوباما، الذي قال يومها عن الاتفاق النووي إنه سيئ والأسوأ، لكنه تحدّى المعارضين في الرياض وتل أبيب بتقديم بديل واقعي، طالما أن الترجمة تقول بأن العقوبات لن تغير موقف إيران، مهما اشتدت، ولن تسقط نظامها، وستخلق تحديات أكثر خطورة في الملف النووي، وطالما أن الحرب لن تتمكن من محو المقدرات النووية الإيرانية من الضربة الأولى، ولن تتمكن من تدمير قدرة إيران على رد يهدّد المنشآت الحيوية لكيان الاحتلال وحكومات الخليج والوجود الأميركي الواقع في مرمى الصواريخ الإيرانيّة، ولذلك كان رهان أوباما ومعه بايدن، استبدال العقوبات على إيران، بتحقيق إجماع دولي جديد يحيط بالتزاماتها النووية، ويضمن إدماجها بحجم ما تمثل من قوة في معادلات جديدة في المنطقة، مع الإدراك المسبق باتساع نفوذها، وتراجع فرص جعل الثنائي السعودي الإسرائيلي صاحب اليد العليا في المنطقة، في ظل ثنائي إيراني تركي يتقدم، مع تفاوت واختلاف سقوف أطراف هذا الثنائي.

الواضح من موافقة السلطة الفلسطينية على العودة للتفاهمات مع كيان الاحتلال أن ولي العهد السعودي يبذل مالاً ونفوذاً ومعه نتنياهو وبومبيو لتوسيع قاعدة الحماية، وتعزيز القدرة، لكن العجز عن تقديم أي مكسب سياسي للسلطة الفلسطينية مع تمسك بايدن بحماية منجزات كيان الاحتلال في ظل إدارة ترامب، سيعني عجز هذه السلطة عن تقديم خدمات تذكر لإضعاف قوى المقاومة في بيئة سياسية وشعبية معاكسة، الا اذا تحوّلت الى ما يشبه جيش العميل انطوان لحد في جنوب لبنان قبيل تحرير الجنوب عام 2000، وبدء تصدع الهياكل الأمنية للسلطة وتمرد شرائح واسعة في فتح يصير هو الأقرب، لذلك يصير التفكير بساحة تكامل للثلاثي محكوماً بالنظر نحو لبنان، حيث الأميركي يضع لبنان في أولويات حركته كما تقول التصريحات والعقوبات ومفاوضات ترسيم الحدود، وحيث كيان الاحتلال يعيش مأزقه الوجودي والأمني الأهم مع قدرات المقاومة وتهديدها، وحيث ابن سلمان يملك الرصيد الأبرز للسعودية في المنطقة، من قدرة تأثير وضغوط على شرائح سياسية متعددة.

اجتمعوا ام لم يجتمعوا، فلبنان مساحة اهتمام ثلاثي تحت الضوء، والحكومة اللبنانية معلّقة على حبال الانتظار.

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JCPOA-phobia! ‘Israelis’, Saudis ‘Express Views’ on US Return to Iran Nuclear Deal

JCPOA-phobia! ‘Israelis’, Saudis ‘Express Views’ on US Return to Iran Nuclear Deal

By Staff

In yet another futile joint attempt to hurdle the growing Iranian might in defense and science, ‘Israeli’ and Saudi efforts met once again, this time to fight the Iran nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA].

With rumors that the upcoming US administration of President-elect Joe Biden will rejoin the Iran nuclear deal that was signed in 2015 with the P5+1 world powers, Zionist Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that “There must be no return to the previous nuclear agreement.”

Claiming that there is a “military” aspect to Tehran’s nuclear energy program, Netanyahu added: “We must stick to an uncompromising policy to ensure that Iran does not develop nuclear weapons.”

Hebrew media outlets, meanwhile, said Netanyahu’s remarks were clearly addressed at Biden, who has signaled to return to the nuclear accord.

Many inside the Zionist occupation entity believe Netanyahu’s policy of playing hardball against Iran is a tactic to deflect attention from his current political problems as he is facing probe over several corruption cases and frequent protests which have drawn people in tens of thousands taking to the streets to also denounce his mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the United Nations Abdallah Al-Mouallimi said on Sunday that the incoming US administration is not “unexperienced enough” to return to the JCPOA

He then called for negotiations for a new deal with the Islamic Republic involving his country.

Al-Mouallimi dismissed the idea that the United States would re-enter the nuclear deal with Iran under Biden’s administration.

He said nobody would be “naive enough” to go back to a deal that has “proven its failure to the entire world.”

Speaking during an appearance on Fox News’ ‘America’s News HQ’, al-Mouallimi said he did not believe Biden’s administration would pivot from the Gulf states back to Iran and the nuclear deal.

“No, I think that the Iran nuclear deal has proven its failure to the entire world. And I don’t think that anybody is going to be naive enough to go back to the same deal,” he claimed.

“If there is a new deal in which Saudi Arabia is involved in the discussion and which covers the shortcomings of the previous deal … then we will be all for it.”

Relatively, Iran’s nuclear program has been subject to the most intensive inspections ever in the world, and the International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] has repeatedly verified the peaceful nature of the activities.

Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic has clearly distanced itself from pursuing non-conventional weapons, citing religious and humanitarian beliefs. According to a fatwa issued by Leader of the Islamic Revolution His Eminence Imam Sayyed Ali Khamenei, acquisition of nuclear weapons is haram or forbidden in Islam.

بين إرسال “قاذفة” وإعلان سحب القوات.. ما هي رسائل إدارة ترامب للمنطقة؟

الساعدي: واشنطن لن تستطيع التغطية على رد إيران على أي عمل عسكري أميركي ضدها

المصدر: الميادين نت

22 تشرين ثاني

الخبير في الشؤون السياسية والعسكرية أمير الساعدي، يقول للميادين إن “ترامب لا يمكن أن يتجاوز الكونغرس لاتخاذ أي قرار بالحرب”، ورئيس تحرير جريدة “رأي اليوم” عبد الباري عطوان، يشير إلى أن “ترامب يريد عرقلة عودة بايدن إلى الاتفاق النووي”.

تستمر إدارة الرئيس الأميركي الحالي دونالد ترامب حتى في آخر أيامها في بعث الرسائل المتناقضة، وفيما أعلنت عن قرار خفض عديد قواتها في المنطقة، ترسل قاذفاتها الاستراتيجية.

وانطلق طاقم العمل الجوي لطائرة (B-52H) “ستراتوفورتريس” في 21 تشرين الثاني/نوفمبر، من قاعدة جوية في ولاية نورث داكوتا، إلى الشرق الأوسط.

ووصفت القيادة المركزية للجيش الأميركي في بيان اليوم السبت، مهمة الطائرة بـ “الطويلة”، مشيرةً إلى أن هدفها “ردع العدوان وطمأنة شركاء وحلفاء الولايات المتحدة”. 

كما أوضحت القيادة المركزية أن “الولايات المتحدة لا تسعى لإحداث أي صراع، لكنها لا تزال ملتزمة بالاستجابة لأي طارئ حول العالم”، مشددةً على “التزامها بالحفاظ على حرية الملاحة والتبادل التجاري في جميع أنحاء المنطقة وحمايتها”.

وحيال قرارات الإدارة الأميركية الأخيرة، قال الخبير في الشؤون السياسية والعسكرية أمير الساعدي، للميادين إن “إرسال (بي 52) إلى المنطقة استعراض من إدارة ترامب الذي يحاول إذكاء قاعدة الجمهوريين في الداخل”. 

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Israel’s Power Is Unlimited

Source

PHILIP GIRALDI • NOVEMBER 17, 2020 

Philip Giraldi - Wikipedia
Philip M. Giraldi, Ph.D., is Executive Director
of the Council for the National Interest,
a 501(c)3 tax deductible educational foundation
(Federal ID Number #52-1739023) that seeks
a more interests-based U.S. foreign policy
in the Middle East. Website i
https://councilforthenationalinterest.org, 
address is P.O. Box 2157,
Purcellville VA 20134 and its email is 
inform@cnionline.org.
← Neocons Poised to Join Ne

Democrats and Republicans bow to force majeure

Even though there was virtually no debate on foreign policy during the recent presidential campaign, there has been considerable discussion of what President Joe Biden’s national security team might look like. The general consensus is that the top levels of the government will be largely drawn from officials who previously served in the Obama administration and who are likely to be hawkish.

There has also been, inevitably, some discussion of how the new administration, if it is confirmed, will deal with Israel and the Middle East in general.

Israelis would have preferred a victory by Donald Trump as they clearly understand that he was and still is willing to defer to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on nearly all issues. Indeed, that process is ongoing even though Trump might only have about nine more weeks remaining in office. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is reportedly preparing to sanction several international human rights organizations as anti-Semitic due to the fact that they criticize Israel’s brutality on the West Bank and its illegal settlement policies. The White House is also prepared to free convicted but paroled Israeli spy Jonathan Pollard from travel restrictions so he can move to Israel, where he is regarded as a hero. Pollard was the most damaging spy in U.S. history and any mitigation of his sentence has been opposed by both the Pentagon, where he worked, and also by the intelligence community.

Finally, it is widely believed that before the end of the year Trump will declare that the United States accepts the legitimacy of Israeli intentions to declare annexation of nearly all the Palestinian West Bank. The White House will actually encourage such an initiative reportedly “to sow hostility between Israel and the Biden administration.” One should note that none of the pro-Israeli measures that are likely to come out of the White House enhance U.S. security in any way and they also do nothing particularly to benefit Trump’s campaign to be re-elected through legal challenges.

If Biden does succeed in becoming president, the special place that Israel occupies in the centers of American power are unlikely to be disturbed, which is why Netanyahu was quick off the mark in congratulating the possible new chief executive. Biden has proudly declared himself to be a “Zionist” and his running mate Kamala Harris has been a featured speaker at the annual gatherings of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) in Washington. Both are strongly supportive of the “special relationship” with the Israel and will make no effort to compromise America’s apparent commitment to protect and nourish the Jewish state.

Though Israel is central to how the United States conducts its foreign policy, the country was invisible in the debates and other discussions that took place among candidates during the recent campaign. American voters were therefore given the choice of one government that panders to Israel at the expense of U.S. security or another party that does exactly the same thing. To be sure, Biden did state that he would work to reinstate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) relating to Iran’s nuclear program, which was canceled by Trump. But he also indicated that it would require some amendment, meaning that the Iranians would have to include their missile program in the monitoring while also abandoning their alleged propensity to “interfere” in the Middle East region. The Iranian government has already indicated that additional conditions are unacceptable, so the deal is dead in the water. Israel has also privately and publicly objected to any new arrangement and has already declared that it would “save the option” of working through the Republican Senate to thwart any attempts by the Biden Administration to change things.

That Israel would blatantly and openly interfere in the deliberations of Congress raises some serious questions which the mainstream media predictably is not addressing. Jewish power in America is for real and it is something that some Jews are not shy about discussing among themselves. Jewish power is unique in terms of how it functions. If you’re an American (or British) politician, you very quickly are made to appreciate that Israel owns you and nearly all of your colleagues. Indeed, the process begins in the U.S. even before your election when the little man from AIPAC shows up with the check list that he wants you to sign off on. If you behave per instructions your career path will be smooth, and you will benefit from your understanding that everything happening inn Washington that is remotely connected to the interests of the state of Israel is to be determined by the Jewish state alone, not by the U.S. Congress or White House.

And, here is the tricky part, even while you are energetically kowtowing to Netanyahu, you must strenuously deny that there is Jewish power at work if anyone ever asks you about it. You behave in that fashion because you know that your pleasant life will be destroyed, painfully, if you fail to deny the existence of an Israel Lobby or the Jewish power that supports it.

It is a bold assertion, but there is plenty of evidence to support how that power is exerted and what the consequences are. Senators William Fulbright and Chuck Percy and Congressmen Paul Findlay, Pete McCloskey and Cynthia McKinney have all experienced the wrath of the Lobby and voted out of office. Currently Reverend Raphael Warnock, who is running against Georgia Loeffler for a senate seat in Georgia demonstrates exactly how candidates are convinced to stand on their heads by the Israel Lobby. Warnock was a strong supporter of Palestinian rights and a critic of Israeli brutality. He said as recently as 2018 that the Israelis were shooting civilians and condemned the military occupation and settlement construction on the Palestinian West Bank, which he compared to apartheid South Africa. Now that he is running for the Senate, he is saying that he is opposed to the Boycotts, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement due to what he calls the movement’s “anti-Semitic overtones.” He also supports continued military assistance for Israel and believes that Iran is in pursuit of a nuclear weapon, both of which are critical issues being promoted by the Zionist lobby.

There is some pushback in Washington to Israeli dominance, but not much. Recent senior Pentagon appointee Colonel Douglas Macgregor famously has pointed out that many American politicians get “very, very rich” through their support of Israel even though it means the United States being dragged into new wars. Just how Israel gains control of the U.S. political process is illustrated by the devastating insider tale of how the Obama Administration’s feeble attempts to do the right thing in the Middle East were derailed by American Jews in Congress, the media, party donors and from inside the White House itself. The story is of particularly interest as the Biden Administration will no doubt suffer the same fate if it seeks to reject or challenge Israel’s ability to manipulate and virtually control key aspects of U.S. foreign policy.

The account of Barack Obama’s struggle with Israel and the Israeli Lobby comes from a recently published memoir written by a former foreign policy adviser Ben Rhodes. It is entitled The World As It Is, and it is extremely candid about how Jewish power was able to limit the foreign policy options of a popular sitting president. Rhodes recounts, for example, how Obama chief of staff Rahm Emanuel once nicknamed him “Hamas” after he dared to speak up for Palestinian human rights, angrily shouting at him “Hamas over here is going to make it impossible for my kid to have his fucking bar mitzvah in Israel.”

Rhodes cites numerous instances where Obama was forced to back down when confronted by Israel and its supporters in the U.S. as well as within the Democratic Party. On several occasions, Netanyahu lecture the U.S. president as if he were an errant schoolboy. And Obama just had to take it. Rhodes sums up the situation as follows: “In Washington, where support for Israel is an imperative for members of Congress, there was a natural deference to the views of the Israeli government on issues related to Iran, and Netanyahu was unfailingly confrontational, casting himself as an Israeli Churchill…. AIPAC and other organizations exist to make sure that the views of the Israeli government are effectively disseminated and opposing views discredited in Washington, and this dynamic was a permanent part of the landscape of the Obama presidency.”

And, returning to the persistent denial of Jewish power even existing when it is running full speed and relentlessly, Rhodes notes the essential dishonesty of the Israel Lobby as it operates in Washington: “Even to acknowledge the fact that AIPAC was spending tens of millions to defeat the Iran deal [JCPOA] was anti-Semitic. To observe that the same people who supported the war in Iraq also opposed the Iran deal was similarly off limits. It was an offensive way for people to avoid accountability for their own positions.”

Many Americans long to live in a country that is at peace with the world and respectful of the sovereignty of foreign nations. Alas, as long as Israeli interests driven by overwhelming Jewish power in the United States continue to corrupt our institutions that just will not be possible. It is time for all Americans, including Jews, to accept that Israel is a foreign country that must make its own decisions and thereby suffer the consequences. The United States does not exist to bail Israel out or to provide cover for its bad behavior. The so-called “special relationship” must end and the U.S. must deal with the Israelis as they would with any other country based on America’s own self-interests. Those interests definitely do not include funding the Israeli war machine, assassinating foreign leaders, or attacking a non-threatening Iran while continuing an illegal occupation of Syria.

Imam Khamenei’s Advisor: US Attack on Iran Could Trigger ‘Full-Fledged’ Regional War

Imam Khamenei’s Advisor: US Attack on Iran Could Trigger ‘Full-Fledged’ Regional War

By Staff, Agencies

A military advisor to Leader of the Islamic Revolution His Eminence Imam Sayyed Ali Khamenei warns that an act of military aggression by the US against Iran that could lead to an even limited conflict is likely to set off a full-scale war that would afflict other parts of the region too.

The remarks were made by Brigadier General Hossein Dehqan, defense minister during Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s previous tenure and former commander of the Air Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps [IRGC]. He made the comments to the Associated Press on Wednesday that the news agency published a day later.

“A limited, tactical conflict can turn into a full-fledged war,” Dehqan said.

He, however, not only clearly distanced Iran from any intention to trigger such a conflict, but also cautioned strongly about such confrontation’s repercussions for the region and, by extension, the world.

“We don’t welcome a crisis. We don’t welcome war. We are not after starting a war,” he said.

“Definitely, the United States, the region, and the world cannot stand such a comprehensive crisis,” the military expert noted.

He, accordingly, warned against any American military escalation in President Donald Trump’s final weeks in office.

Dehqan, meanwhile, addressed the likelihood of fresh negotiations with the US and the quality that such talks could partake of.

He reminded that the US’ atrocities under Trump had made it extremely difficult for Iran to accept its return to the negotiation table. Among the rest, he referred to the US’ assassination of Iran’s senior anti-terror commander Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani on Trump’s direct order near Baghdad airport in January.

He called the IRGC’s retaliatory missile strikes against US bases in Iraq that came almost immediately after the assassination a mere “initial slap,” and asserted that the Islamic Republic continued to seek the expulsion of all American forces from the region as revenge for the barbaric assassination.

“We do not seek a situation in which [the other party] buys time to weaken our nation,” he also said – apparently signaling that Tehran would not tolerate any American trickery in the event of any fresh talks – and said, “We are not after negotiations for the sake of negotiations either.”

Further, the advisor reiterated the country’s principled stance that its missile power is non-negotiable due to its forming part of Iran’s “deterrent” might.

“The Islamic Republic of Iran will not negotiate its defensive power … with anybody under any circumstances,” Dehqan said. “Missiles are a symbol of the massive potential that is possessed by our experts, young people, and industrial centers.”

The official also warned about the “Israeli” entity’s regional expansionist ambitions that saw the regime normalizing its relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Sudan earlier in the year. Dehqan warned that the ambitious march was a “strategic mistake” that could put Tel Aviv in a parlous state.

“It is opening an extensive front,” he said. “Just imagine every ‘Israeli’ in any military base can be a target for groups who are opposed to ‘Israel’”.

Separately, the official said the United Nations nuclear agency could keep monitoring Iran’s nuclear activities as long as no inspector is a “spy.” He was seemingly referring to a case of apparent attempted sabotage last year that came amid the US and the “Israeli” entity’s escalated attempts at demonizing Iran’s nuclear energy program.

Last November, Iran revealed that a detector for explosive nitrates had gone off at the country’s Natanz uranium enrichment plant when an inspector with the watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, attempted to enter the facility on October 28.

Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s envoy to the agency, noted back then that the woman “sneaked out” to the bathroom while officials looked for a female employee to search her.

After her return, he added, the alarms did not go off again, but authorities found contamination in the bathroom and later on her empty handbag during a house search.

Pompeo: All Options Remain on the Table against Iran

Pompeo: All Options Remain on the Table against Iran

By Staff, Agencies

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has repeated Washington’s threats against Iran, saying all options remain on the table against the Islamic republic.

Pompeo made the remarks in an interview with the “Israeli” newspaper “Jerusalem Post” when he was asked whether “all options still on the table” against Iran.

Pompeo said this has been the policy of the United States for the past four years and there’s no reason it would change.

“My judgement is, and history will reflect, that we’ve been pretty successful,” he said.

“I remember when we first began the maximum pressure campaign. We’d withdrawn from the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action], and the world said this will never work, American sanctions alone won’t work,” he said.

“Well, they have significantly reduced Iran’s capacity to foment harm around the world. It’s not complete,” he added.

“[US President Donald Trump] has done several things. One, he denied them money. That also sent a strong message to the Middle East that facilitated the Abraham Accords [through] this central understanding, this isolation of Iran in ways that are deeply different than before, whether it’s the [United Arab] Emirates or Bahrain or Sudan or whoever signs the Abraham Accords next,” he continued.

On Wednesday, Iran warned the US of a crushing response if it takes any hostile move against the country.

This followed a New York Times report that Trump had asked his top aides, including Pompeo, about the possibility of striking Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The report said the aides dissuaded Trump by warning him that any such a move could escalate into a broader conflict in the last weeks of his presidency.

Trump will continue political civil war to maintain his relevance: analyst

November 20, 2020 – 21:12

By Amir Mohammad Esmaeili

 TEHRAN – Jim W. Dean, the managing editor of Veterans Today, tells the Tehran Times that Donald Trump is going to continue the American political civil war to maintain his relevance, and also to help protect himself from prosecution. 

“There are many, even in U.S. intelligence, who have considered him a national security threat, and who fully expect him to profit from selling U.S. classified material for his personal interest and attempt to rebuild himself after he leaves office as the ideology enforcer of the Republican party, as a big Mafia Don, even those running in primary elections must kneel and kiss the ring of ‘Don’ Trump,” notes Dean, who comes from an old military family going back to the American Revolution.

Here is the full text of the interview:

Q: How do you analyze the U.S. presidential election and its following consequences? 
 
A: It is both a relief and a torment. The thought of four more years of an autocratic Trump regime would have put 79 million Americans into a depression. And not the least of that would be because we have been looking forward to his losing his presidential immunity so the legal cases, including criminal ones, can proceed against him and his family. 

“There are many, even in U.S. intelligence, who have considered him (Trump) a national security threat, and who fully expect him to profit from selling U.S. classified material for his personal profit.”Hundreds of retired ex-prosecutors are ready to assist in this process, people who have served both Republican and Democratic administrations. They are joined in the belief that Trump should be made an example of to dissuade any future autocratic new president thinking that he can follow in Trump’s shoes.

There are many, even in U.S. intelligence, who have considered him a national security threat, and who fully expect him to profit from selling U.S. classified material for his personal profit and attempt to rebuild himself after he leaves office as the ideology enforcer of the Republican party, as a big Mafia Don, even those running in primary elections must kneel and kiss the ring of ‘Don’ Trump.

Q: How do you see the current chaotic situation in the U.S.?

A: The chaos in the election count is subsiding. The Washington Post, three months prior to the election had revealed the White House plan to contest the election due to Trump being so behind in the polls. It has turned into a circus that will stain the Republican party for years. 

Their original plan was focused on challenging a close election, but Rudy Giuliani is now viewed as taking a wrecking ball to that strategy. He chose to flood the courts with scores of election fraud claims, many of them based on Twitter social media platform reports alone. 

That, combined with Trump’s tweeting about “The Steal”, blew up the original plan with almost all of the early challenge cases being thrown out for lack of evidence. Some judges hinted that the attorneys presenting them might have their law licenses taken away. Pro-Trump law firms have begun backing off filing any more cases, including in Pennsylvania.

The political strategy now seems to be focused on challenging the vote count with nitpicks as a way to operate a fundraising scam that will fund a Trump supporter PAC called Save America. Trump is thinking of revenge and needs to be able to control his base to intimidate the Republican leadership and to be a critic of the Biden presidency.

The man wants to continue hogging the media spotlight with his endless false claims to keep his base riled up, the biggest of which will be that the election was stolen from him, and them.

Q: How do you assess the reaction of the U.S. political and security apparatus to the political unrest? 

A: There had been months of preparation for election unrest, both for street protests and rioting. But there was also contingency planning for the possibility that an angry Trump might do some crazy things, including starting a conflict somewhere. 

“Trump is thinking of revenge and needs to be able to control his base to intimidate the Republican leadership and to be a critic of the Biden presidency.”This planning even involved a high alert being put out for any possible false flag attack being planned which could justify a Trump “retaliatory” strike. The scenarios included a possible nuclear event where Trump could call a national emergency. 

On the political end, we know from White House leaks via the Washington Post, that Trump asked his staff to consider the nuclear option of demanding the Republican State legislatures take the step of casting their respective state Electoral College votes for Trump, under a Constitutional pathway that has never been used.

The consensus, so far, is that the Republican Party going forward would not want that on their record. The Supreme Court has already hinted it does not want to get involved in an election court case and is letting some items on its docket just run out of time. It does not want its reputation besmirched by a desperate Trump.

Q:  Will U.S. foreign policy towards West Asia change in Biden’s presidency? 

A: Biden has sent some early signals, such as the unipolar Trump foreign policy mania seems to be history. The EU will be the first benefactor for renewing better relations. This triggers some early responses inside the EU that it is time to take responsibility for its own defense, which will be popular with American taxpayers. 

Biden has indicated the U.S. rejoining the JCPOA, but then later attached some conditions to it, which could doom that move. 

Expect Biden to be a hawk with Russia, China, and North Korea, but trying to bring a coalition along with him so he does not follow the Trump lead of talking one game and then doing another.

Revolutionary Changes Awaiting the Middle East?

17.11.2020 

Author: Vladimir Odintsov

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Although some of Donald Trump’s advisers still believe in his possible victory and support his attempts to fight, their number is gradually decreasing. Trump himself also is gradually realising the fact that the election results will not be canceled, and he has lost these elections…

The increasing reality of the failure of Trump’s four-year political activity is forcing politicians in many countries who have orientated towards him to look for a way to resolve their current situation, making adjustments to their rhetoric and actions. A certain group, imitating Trump himself, who has repeatedly abandoned former allies in the name of “his own political game”, are rapidly seeking to reorient themselves to the expected new master of the White House, sending flattering congratulations on “victory” instead of the previous criticism for the recent opponent of Trump in the elections.

As the Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung emphasised, “Europe collectively breathed a sigh of relief. The warm reaction of Brussels and representatives of the EU member states has once again confirmed: more than the election of Joe Biden, Europe is happy about the impending departure of President Donald Trump.”

And this is not only a typical reaction for Europe!

Almost all commentary states the obvious fact: the time after Trump will not be the same as the time before Trump. And therefore, the shifting of the “weather vane of political change” is very clearly traced not only in the list of those who have already congratulated Joe Biden “on victory” – even before the official announcement of the highly scandalous and controversial recent presidential elections in the United States – but also in the choice of the words themselves to express servility and plebeian devotion.

Thus, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu congratulated Joe Biden, calling him “a great friend of Israel.” However most recently, Channel 7 of Israeli television published the results of a national poll, according to which 68% of Israelis expressed their devotion to Trump. Moreover, on November 2, according to Reuters, Israel even held a prayer service for the re-election of Donald Trump. And this is not surprising, since Trump suits Tel Aviv much more. Indeed, it was Trump who on December 6, 2017 recognised Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and moved the US embassy there. In May 2018, Trump pulled Washington out of the “nuclear pact” with Tehran. On March 25, 2019, Trump officially recognized Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights. On October 15, 2020, Trump held a ceremony to normalize relations between Israel, Bahrain and the UAE in front of the White House in Washington. It was Trump who signed the Justice for Unpaid Survivors Act, which provides for the return of property lost during the Holocaust and other events of the 20th century. He signed a decree on the fight against anti-Semitism on American campuses.

But, in addition to Netanyahu, the leaders of Hamas and the extremist group “Muslim Brotherhood Politics” (banned in Russia – ed.) Sent their congratulations to Biden, calling on the new White House administration to abandon the old Trump policies in the Middle East and “Look towards Palestine.”

According to comments published in recent days by various media outlets, with the arrival of Biden in the White House, one can really expect a significant adjustment to the previous US Middle Eastern policy. In particular, it is believed that Joe Biden will return to the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) Agreement on Iran’s nuclear program, while changing some of the terms of the treaty.

In addition to countering Iran, the next US president will certainly face the need to resolve a number of other crises in the Middle East. As The Jerusalem Post believes, this is first of all, the growing extremism of Turkey, the settlement of the Palestinian problem, the issues in Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean, as well as the great catastrophe in the Sahel and the potential destabilization of Iraq.

According to former US Ambassador to Israel Daniel B. Shapiro, Biden’s undisputed foreign policy initiative related to the Middle East will be the question of creating a Palestinian state. Also, the new head of the White House may cancel the “deal of the century” – the Trump administrations deal to settle the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, which was indignantly rejected by the Palestinian authorities and a number of Muslim countries.

A possible adjustment of Trump’s Middle East policy by Biden is already, belligerently expected in Tel Aviv. On November 5, 2020, Israeli Settlement Minister Tsakhi has already voiced threats that the Israeli elite is ready to start a war with the Islamic Republic in response to Washington’s return to the “nuclear pact.”

In Riyadh, Biden’s arrival at the White House is expected with heightened vigilance.

As we are reminded from the November 8, edition of “Al-Arabia”, Biden promised to reconsider relations with Saudi Arabia in connection with the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Hence, even a number of Saudi experts do not exclude that Biden “poses a threat to the crown prince, since he will order the CIA to reveal all the details of the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and also force the prince to lift the blockade from Qatar, stop arming Riyadh with weapons and ammunition for the war in Yemen and compel him to release the detained activists and members of the royal family.” There is even a belief regarding the possible removal of bin Salman from his posts, in connection with which there are unequivocal hints that in this situation the crown prince has only one “weapon to withstand these dangers – rapprochement with Israel.”

Developing on this idea,   the head of the ‘Mossad’, Yossi Cohen, bluntly stated that “normalization of relations with Israel will be a gift from Riyadh to the new US president – regardless of whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden wins,” and that this decision could soften ‘Biden the Democrat’s’ stance on the KSA (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia).

Be that as it may (and obviously not without taking into account these points) on the evening of November 8, King Salman of Saudi Arabia and his heir Prince Muhammad finally congratulated Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris on their election victory.

It will also be difficult time for Turkey starting when the real possibility of a new president of USA comes to power, as they reacted very sharply to the statements of Joe Biden, who, in an interview with The New York Times, spoke negatively about Recep Erdogan, calling him an “autocrat”, criticised his policy towards the Kurds and supported the Turkish opposition.  Although Joe Biden did this interview back in December 2019, the video of him appeared only on August 15. Now Ankara is preparing for the imposition of a number of sanctions against it on several issues at once, in particular, for Operation Peace Spring against the Syrian Kurds, since Biden may recognise them as their main ally in Syria. Ankara also takes into account Biden’s recent calls to increase pressure on the Turkish authorities in order to push them to reduce tensions in relations with Athens: “it is necessary to put pressure on Turkey so that it abandons provocative actions in the region against Greece, as well as threats to use force.”

They also recall how recently Joe Biden demanded that Donald Trump put pressure on Turkey to abandon the decision on the Hagia Sophia issue, saying that Ankara “should open this temple to all confessions.”

Hence how the recent resignation of both the head of the Central Bank   Murat Uysal, and the Minister of Finance and Treasury of Turkey Berat Albayrak (who was Erdogan’s son-in-law) gave rise to active discussions of the processes that have begun in the highest echelons of power against the background of the expected change of the US presidential administration.  After all, the previous head of the Central Bank worked at Halkbank, the investigation around which may enter an active phase under the new administration, and Albayrak may be connected with the “Halkbank case”. Recall that in January 2018, a court in New York found Halkbank Deputy Chairman Hakan Atilla guilty of the fact that he and the bank itself provided intermediary services in the transfer of funds received by the Iranian leadership from the sale of oil and gas.

The Middle East has always been an issue for US presidents, many administrations come to power wanting to “do something” about the region, but the problems and conflicts are not diminishing. Therefore, today many are asking the question: will Biden become the president who is really ready to make this region better and not just another inhabitant of the Oval Office?

Vladimir Odintsov, political observer, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook“.

Neocons Poised to Join New Government

Victoria Nuland was the driving force behind efforts to destabilize the Ukrainian government of President Viktor Yanukovych.

November 12, 2020

Philip GIRALDI
Ph.D., Executive Director of
the Council for the National Interest.

Philip Giraldi

Donald Trump was much troubled during his 2016 and 2020 campaigns by so-called conservatives who rallied behind the #NeverTrump banner, presumably in opposition to his stated intention to end or at least diminish America’s role in wars in the Middle East and Asia. Those individuals are generally described as neoconservatives but the label is itself somewhat misleading and they might more properly be described as liberal warmongers as they are closer to the Democrats than the Republicans on most social issues and are now warming up even more as the new Joe Biden Administration prepares to take office.

To be sure, some neocons stuck with the Republicans, to include the highly controversial Elliott Abrams, who initially opposed Trump but is now the point man for dealing with both Venezuela and Iran. Abrams’ conversion reportedly took place when he realized that the new president genuinely embraced unrelenting hostility towards Iran as exemplified by the ending of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the assassination of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad. John Bolton was also a neocon in the White House fold, though he is now a frenemy having been fired by the president and written a book.

Even though the NeverTrumper neocons did not succeed in blocking Donald Trump in 2016, they have been maintaining relevancy by slowly drifting back towards the Democratic Party, which is where they originated back in the 1970s in the office of the Senator from Boeing Henry “Scoop” Jackson. A number of them started their political careers there, to include leading neocon Richard Perle.

It would not be overstating the case to suggest that the neoconservative movement has now been born again, though the enemy is now the unreliable Trumpean-dominated Republican Party rather than Saddam Hussein or Ayatollah Khomeini. The transition has also been aided by a more aggressive shift among the Democrats themselves, with Russiagate and other “foreign interference” being blamed for the party’s failure in 2016. Given that mutual intense hostility to Trump, the doors to previously shunned liberal media outlets have now opened wide to the stream of foreign policy “experts” who want to “restore a sense of the heroic” to U.S. national security policy. Eliot A. Cohen and David Frum are favored contributors to the Atlantic while Bret Stephens and Bari Weiss were together at the New York Times prior to Weiss’s recent resignation. Jennifer Rubin, who wrote in 2016 that “It is time for some moral straight talk: Trump is evil incarnate,” is a frequent columnist for The Washington Post while both she and William Kristol appear regularly on MSNBC.

The unifying principle that ties many of the mostly Jewish neocons together is, of course, unconditional defense of Israel and everything it does, which leads them to support a policy of American global military dominance which they presume will inter alia serve as a security umbrella for the Jewish state. In the post-9/11 world, the neocon media’s leading publication The Weekly Standard virtually invented the concept of “Islamofascism” to justify endless war in the Middle East, a development that has killed millions of Muslims, destroyed at least three nations, and cost the U.S. taxpayer more than $5 trillion. The Israel connection has also resulted in neocon support for an aggressive policy against Russia due to its involvement in Syria and has led to repeated calls for the U.S. to attack Iran and destroy Hezbollah in Lebanon. In Eastern Europe, neocon ideologues have aggressively sought “democracy promotion,” which, not coincidentally, has also been a major Democratic Party foreign policy objective.

The neocons are involved in a number of foundations, the most prominent of which is the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), that are funded by Jewish billionaires. FDD is headed by Canadian Mark Dubowitz and it is reported that the group takes direction coming from officials in the Israeli Embassy in Washington. Other major neocon incubators are the American Enterprise Institute, which currently is the home of Paul Wolfowitz, and the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at John Hopkins University. The neocon opposition has been sniping against Trump over the past four years but has been biding its time and building new alliances, waiting for what it has perceived to be an inevitable regime change in Washington.

That change has now occurred and the surge of neocons to take up senior positions in the defense, intelligence and foreign policy agencies will soon take place. In my notes on the neocon revival, I have dubbed the brave new world that the neocons hope to create in Washington as the “Kaganate of Nulandia” after two of the more prominent neocon aspirants, Robert Kagan and Victoria Nuland.

Robert was one of the first neocons to get on the NeverTrump band wagon back in 2016 when he endorsed Hillary Clinton for president and spoke at a Washington fundraiser for her, complaining about the “isolationist” tendency in the Republican Party exemplified by Trump. His wife Victoria Nuland is perhaps better known. She was the driving force behind efforts to destabilize the Ukrainian government of President Viktor Yanukovych. Yanukovych, an admittedly corrupt autocrat, nevertheless became Prime Minister after a free election. Nuland, who was the Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs at the State Department, provided open support to the Maidan Square demonstrators opposed to Yanukovych’s government, to include media friendly appearances passing out cookies on the square to encourage the protesters.

A Dick Cheney and Hillary Clinton protégé, Nuland openly sought regime change for Ukraine by brazenly supporting government opponents in spite of the fact that Washington and Kiev had ostensibly friendly relations. Her efforts were backed by a $5 billion budget, but she is perhaps most famous for her foul language when referring to the potential European role in managing the unrest that she and the National Endowment for Democracy had helped create. The replacement of the government in Kiev was only the prelude to a sharp break and escalating conflict with Moscow over Russia’s attempts to protect its own interests in Ukraine, most particularly in Crimea.

And, to be sure, beyond regime change in places like Ukraine, President Barack Obama was no slouch when it came to starting actual shooting wars in places like Libya and Syria while also killing people, including American citizens, using drones. Biden appears poised to inherit many former Obama White House senior officials, who would consider the eager-to-please neoconservatives a comfortable fit as fellow foot soldiers in the new administration. Foreign policy hawks expected to have senior positions in the Biden Administration include Antony Blinken, Nicholas Burns, Susan Rice, Valerie Jarrett, Samantha Power and, most important of all the hawkish Michele Flournoy, who has been cited as a possible secretary of defense. And don’t count Hillary Clinton out. Biden is reportedly getting his briefings on the Middle East from Dan Shapiro, former U.S. Ambassador to Israel, who now lives in the Jewish state and is reportedly working for an Israeli government supported think tank, the Institute for National Security Studies.

Nowhere in Biden’s possible foreign policy circle does one find anyone who is resistant to the idea of worldwide interventionism in support of claimed humanitarian objectives, even if it would lead to a new cold war with major competitor powers like Russia and China. In fact, Biden himself appears to embrace an extremely bellicose view on a proper relationship with both Moscow and Beijing “claiming that he is defending democracy against its enemies.” His language is unrelenting, so much so that it is Donald Trump who could plausibly be described as the peace candidate in the recently completed election, having said at the Republican National Convention in August “Joe Biden spent his entire career outsourcing their dreams and the dreams of American workers, offshoring their jobs, opening their borders and sending their sons and daughters to fight in endless foreign wars, wars that never ended.”

For Trump’s Middle East allies, Joe Biden is a new nightmare

 Source

David Hearst
17 November 2020 14:19 UTC | Last update: 17 hours 25 mins ago

David Hearst is the editor in chief of Middle East Eye. He left The Guardian as its chief foreign leader writer. In a career spanning 29 years, he covered the Brighton bomb, the miner’s strike, the loyalist backlash in the wake of the Anglo-Irish Agreement in Northern Ireland, the first conflicts in the breakup of the former Yugoslavia in Slovenia and Croatia, the end of the Soviet Union, Chechnya, and the bushfire wars that accompanied it. He charted Boris Yeltsin’s moral and physical decline and the conditions which created the rise of Putin. After Ireland, he was appointed Europe correspondent for Guardian Europe, then joined the Moscow bureau in 1992, before becoming bureau chief in 1994. He left Russia in 1997 to join the foreign desk, became European editor and then associate foreign editor. He joined The Guardian from The Scotsman, where he worked as education correspondent.


The president-elect’s actions in the Middle East will be dictated by events. But the loss of Trump represents a body check for the ambitions and aspirations of Gulf hegemons
Then Vice President Joe Biden during a visit to Saudi Arabia in 2011 (Reuters)

You can detect the shadow of Donald Trump fading from the Middle East in the nervous twitches of his closest allies.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is accelerating settlements before the inevitable freeze or pause in construction in January when President-Elect Joe Biden takes over. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi is releasing just a fraction of the estimated 60,000 political prisoners he has stashed in his jails.

Trump’s Middle East triumphs will soon turn to disaster

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Sisi’s television anchors are, from one day to the next, given different scripts to read out. Take the sad case of Nashaat al-Deehy. When Biden was a candidate, al-Deehy trashed him: “Joseph Biden will become the oldest US president in the history of the United States of America. On 20 November he will be 78 years old. This will impact his mental situation and he suffers from Alzheimer’s and therefore is not fit to be president of the United States of America.”

But once the US media had called Biden president-elect, al-Deehy became respectful. “We have just learned that President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sent a congratulations cable to US President-elect Joe Biden. This man has great respect for Egypt and is known to be wise and he listens well. He does not take decisions frantically. He does not take decisions when he’s angry. All of this was missing in the case of Donald Trump, who was violent and stubborn and arrogant. All of this we’re seeing it.”

Small gestures

The Saudi ambassador in London is in an equal turmoil. One day he hints to the Guardian that jailed women activists could be freed during the G20 summit next week.

“The G20, does it offer an opportunity for clemency? Possibly. That is a judgment for someone other than me,” said Khalid bin Bandar bin Sultan bin Abdulaziz Al Saud. “People ask: is it worth the damage it is causing you, whatever they did? That is a fair argument to make and it is a discussion we have back at home within our political system and within our ministry.”

The next day he calls in the BBC to deny what he has just said.

Poor ambassador.

The king himself is by no means immune from wild policy swings. He has started being nice to Turkey.

A week after the earthquake in Izmir, Salman ordered the dispatch of “urgent aid” to the city. Then we learn that the king of Bahrain Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa and the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan were in talks. The occasion was to present condolences for the death of the Bahraini Prime Minister Prince Khalifa bin Salman Al Khalifa. But direct contact with a satellite of Riyadh would have been impossible without a green light from the diwan, the Saudi royal court.

Ever since Erdogan refused to let the murder of the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul drop, he has become a hate figure in Riyadh. Turkey has been declared – repeatedly –  a regional threat by Saudi social media and Turkish goods subject to a growing boycott. Now it has all changed.

These are small gestures, but telling ones, as Trump leaves office.

CIA bites back

Top of the list of nervous allies is the man who used Trump to fashion his rise to power.

Biden has every incentive to encourage MBS’ many enemies in the Royal family to step forward to prevent the over ambitious prince from becoming King

To become crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) had to get rid of, and trash the reputation of his elder cousin Mohammed bin Nayef, who was at the time the CIA’s prime asset in the country and the Gulf region. Before he did this, bin Salman phoned Jared Kushner, Trump’s son in law and Middle East adviser, to ask permission. It was given, sources with knowledge of the call told Middle East Eye.

Biden knows bin Nayef personally. Bin Nayef’s chief of staff and former interior minister Saad al-Jabri has fled to Toronto. A few days after Khashoggi’s assassination in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in October 2018, MBS despatched another crew from the Tiger Squad to kill al-Jabri, according to a lawsuit filed under the Torture Victim Protection Act in the US District of Columbia.

Al-Jabri was lucky. Border agents at Toronto International Airport detected the operation and sent it back home. All this is active evidence. None of this has been dealt with. The CIA’s own assessment that MBS ordered Khashoggi’s killing has never been published.

It is not just Biden himself the crown prince has to fear – although the presidential candidate reserved his sharpest words for the killing of Khashoggi – but the return of the CIA to the top table of decision making in the White House.

Overnight MBS goes from having a president in the White House who “saved his ass”, as Trump put it, to a successor who is not remotely interested in doing the same. Biden has every incentive to encourage MBS’s many enemies in the royal family to step forward to prevent the over-ambitious prince from becoming king. There are enough of them, by now.

Get out of jail card

An Oval Office under new management leaves MBS with relatively few options.

He could use Israel as his get-out-of-jail card, by pushing for recognition and normalisation. There is bipartisan support in Congress for the Abraham Accords signed between the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Israel.

How Mohammed bin Salman is quietly enabling an Israeli axis in the Arab world

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Although the incoming Biden administration will put more emphasis on restarting direct negotiations between the Palestinian Authority and Israel, it would not stop another major Arab state like Saudi Arabia from joining the party.

The opposition to Saudi normalisation with Israel would be at home, not abroad. Recognising Israel would be perilous domestically. However much Saud alQahtani’s social media trolls bully Saudi public opinion, it is ferociously pro-Palestinian and anti-Zionist.

Never more so than today, Palestine remains the key source of instability in the Middle East, the conflict that defines it, the conflict that endures as a symbol of European colonisation and Arab humiliation.

The custodian of the Two Holy Mosques recognising Israel? Not over many Muslims’ dead bodies.

Each time MBS has had to walk back on his wish to recognise Israel (and he was very near to flying to Washington and playing the role of smiling sponsor at the signing ceremony in the White House, before cancelling at the last minute) he has turned to his father, the king, to say that nothing has changed and reaffirm official state policy.

This is the Arab Peace Initiative published by his predecessor King Abdullah in 2002 and it only allows  recognition of Israel after a negotiated solution has been found based on 1967 borders.

US President Donald Trump waves to supporters on 15 November (Reuters)

US President Donald Trump waves to supporters on 15 November (Reuters)

The loss of Trump’s “крыша” – or protective roof – and the arrival of a hostile president in Biden will mean that MBS will need his father in the post as king even more than he has done in the past. We know from Saudi sources that at one point MBS was toying with the idea of forcing his father’s premature abdication on health grounds and seizing the crown himself.

The loss of Trump’s protective roof and the arrival of a hostile president in Biden will mean that MBS will need his father in the post as king even more than he has done in the past

In his latest round of purges, MBS targeted leading members of Hay’at al-Bayaa (the Allegiance Council) whose role is to approve a royal succession and the appointment of a new crown prince.

The latest arrests to purge the Allegiance Council of his critics would only have made sense if MBS himself was intending to becoming king. But that was in good times, when bin Salman’s star was rising and he could still visit London and Washington without creating flashmobs of human rights protesters.

In bad times, the king remains the tribal chief, who commands the loyalty of the royal family and the kingdom. Regardless of Salman’s actual mental condition, he is still the head of the family and there will be no rebellion against him. The same would not apply to his son if he pushed his father aside and seized the crown. He would be fair game for a palace coup. This is probably the main reason why the father is still king.

Regional alliance

The fate of the regional alliance that a future King Mohammed was attempting to build around himself also hangs in the balance. The real fight going on in the Sunni Arab world is about who would take over as leader and Western proxy.

Biden must end Trump’s alliance with Mohammed bin Salman

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The purpose of the alliance with Israel – in Emirati eyes – is not to increase wealth but power, power to become, with Saudi Arabia under King Mohammed, the regional hegemon.

That ambition still exists.

But the role that an “Arab Nato” alliance was intended to play to combat and curb Iran will now be diminished by Biden’s attempt to restore the nuclear agreement with Tehran. Iran’s rulers stared Trump in the eyes and did not blink first. They outlasted this US president as they have done to Jimmy Carter and every president who followed him.

The nuclear agreement (known as JCPOA) was Barack Obama’s crowning foreign policy achievement – although it was the fruition of years of negotiation involving many countries and past foreign ministers – the so-called P5 plus one, the permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany, and Turkey and Brazil before them.

However, each side’s moves are sequenced and whatever difficulties that lie on that path, Biden will pivot once more to restoring this nuclear agreement. Even if some sanctions continue, the policy of using them to exert “maximum pressure” will be over.

Detente will inevitably create a new reality in the Gulf region.

It will also create a new reality for members of the opposing alliance, Turkey and Qatar. Biden is no admirer of Erdogan, with whom he has spent many hours talking. He has apologised to Erdogan once for remarks suggesting that Turkey helped facilitate the rise of the Islamic State group. He is not about to do that again soon.

In a meeting with the New York Times’ editorial board filmed in December, Biden described Erdogan as an autocrat. Asked about how comfortable he felt with the US still basing 50 nuclear weapons in Turkey, Biden said his comfort level had “diminished a great deal” and that he would be making it clear to the Turkish leader that the US supports the opposition.

A volatile world

Once in power, Biden may find it more difficult to express this personal hostility. Whether he likes it or not, Turkey is a more confident regional military power than it was in Obama’s time.

Its military has proved itself as a counterweight to Russian military power in Syria and Libya, and it has just achieved a major breakthrough in Nagorno Karabakh, establishing for the first time access by road from the Turkish border to the Caspian Sea.

This is a strategic win for the Turkish state.

If he is going to partially lift sanctions on Iran, Biden will find that he needs Turkey as a regional counterbalance. There are today too many arenas, from Syria and Iraq to Libya, where Turkey has become a player. Biden has to deal with these “facts on the ground” whether he likes it or not.

Similarly, pressure will also now grow on Saudi Arabia to end its siege on Qatar. Their immediate neighbour, the UAE, will always regard Qatar’s pro-Islamist foreign policy as an existential threat. But the same does not apply to Riyadh, and quiet negotiations in Oman and Kuwait have already taken place.

Biden’s actions in the Middle East will be dictated by events. But the loss of Trump represents a body check for the ambitions and aspirations of Gulf hegemons.

It’s a more uncertain, volatile world.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.

هل يقلب ترامب الطاولة إلى فوق أم إلى تحت؟

ناصر قنديل

بعدما هدّد الرئيس الأميركي دونالد ترامب بقلب الطاولة داخلياً عبر رفض التسليم بنتيجة الانتخابات يبدو كل شيء يسير بالاتجاه المعاكس. ففي الداخل الأميركي وفي الخارج الدولي تسليم بأن جو بايدن هو الرئيس الأميركي المقبل، وكلام مستشار الأمن القومي الأميركي المعين من ترامب روبرت أوبراين عن الانتقال السلس والفريق الانتقالي المحترف لبايدن كافٍ لمعرفة الاتجاه المقبل، وفي الخارج جرى تسويق نظرية قلب الطاولة لجهة القول بخطوات تصعيدية حربية سيُقدم عليها ترامب، ومما تداولته وسائل الإعلام الأميركية من تسريبات من فريق ترامب للحديث عن ضربة لمفاعل نطنز النووي في إيران، ثم الكلام عن نصائح أدّت لصرف ترامب النظر عن العملية.

فجأة أعلن ترامب عبر وزارة الدفاع التي غير وزيرها قرار البدء بسحب قواته تدريجياً من العراق وأفغانستان، وخطة الوزارة للانسحاب لا تكتمل قبل نهاية ولاية ترامب ما يعني أن مواصلتها تحتاج موافقة الرئيس الجديد، فما هي خيارات ترامب لقلب الطاولة، إن لم تكن الضربات العسكرية التي صرف النظر عنها تفادياً لتداعيات خطيرة، كما قيل، وإن لم تكن الانسحابات التي لن تكتمل خلال ما تبقى من ولايته؟

نشرت مجلة فورين بوليسي مقالاً تبيض فيه صفحة ترامب مضمونه أن سياسات ترامب غيّرت الشرق الأوسط. فالعقوبات أنهكت إيران وجعلت التفاوض معها أسهل، والتطبيع الإماراتي والبحريني مع كيان الاحتلال فتح طريقاً لفك العلاقة بين التعاون العربي «الإسرائيلي» والقضية الفلسطينية، لكن فورين بوليسي التي تعتبر أن ترامب قلب الطاولة وانتهى تتجاهل أن استنتاجها بتغيير الشرق الأوسط متسرّع جداً، فمن قال إن التفاوض مع إيران بات أسهل، والمعلوم أن إيران لن تفاوض من خارج إطار الاتفاق النووي، فما لم يعد الأميركي سواء كان اسمه ترامب أم بايدن إلى الاتفاق وأطره وقواعده للتفاوض، لا تفاوض مهما بلغت العقوبات ومهما بلغت التهديدات، ومهما أراد الأميركي من الانسحابات.

في الشرق الأوسط القضية ليست حل النزاع العربي «الإسرائيلي» وقد صارت المقاومة هي اللاعب الرئيسي وليس النظام العربي الرسمي الذي فشل فشلاً ذريعاً في نظريته التي صاغها انور السادات بأن 99% من أوراق اللعبة بيد أميركا، بينما اليوم المعادلة هي أن 99% من أمن «إسرائيل» بيد المقاومة، فماذا ستفيد تفاهمات التطبيع مع دول لا تمثل تهديداً لأمن الكيان، بينما التهديد الذي تمثله المقاومة يتزايد، وما يحتاجه الكيان قبل الوفود السياحية الإماراتيّة هو الاطمئنان إلى وجوده وأمنه.

الصواريخ التي تساقطت على السفارة الأميركية في بغداد تقول إن على الأميركي أن يختار بين الانسحاب تحت النار أو الذهاب لاتفاق مضمونه التسليم بالسيادة العراقية الكاملة، ومثلها في سورية، وفي الحالتين التسليم بسقوط مشروع الهيمنة، والصواريخ التي سقطت قرب تل أبيب تقول إن أمن الكيان لن يجلبه التطبيع.

ما يفعله ترامب ليس موجهاً ضد محور المقاومة بقدر ما هو موجه لبايدن بمحاولة خلق وقائع تربك مسيرته الرئاسية، وقائع متناقضة بين مناخ تصعيدي مع محور المقاومة، وانسحابات تترك الساحة فارغة أمامه، وهي في مضمونها تسليم بأن زمن ترامب ينتهي وزمن جديد يبدأ، ليس أكيداً انه زمن بايدن، فمن يملك الأرض يملك الزمن، والكلمة الفصل لم تُقَلْ بعد.

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«حزب الحرب» مُحرّضاً في لحظة الهزيمة: هل يهاجم ترامب إيران؟

«حزب الحرب» مُحرّضاً في لحظة الهزيمة: هل يهاجم ترامب إيران؟
يَتمنّى «حزب الحرب» في إدارة ترامب أن تُحوِّل القوة النارية الأميركية محور المقاومة إلى ركام (أ ف ب )

الأخبار

وليد شرارة 

الخميس 12 تشرين الثاني 2020

يبدو واضحاً أن النواة الأيديولوجية ــــ العقائدية النافذة في إدارة دونالد ترامب، تسعى إلى دفع الأخيرة إلى ما لم تستطع دفعه إليه خلال السنوات الأربع الماضية. محاوِلةً استغلال الرغبة في الانتقام، واستثارة الميل إلى دخول التاريخ بخطوة مزلزلة، تجهد تلك النواة في دفع ترامب إلى إجراءات غير محسوبة ضدّ إيران. على أن الطموحات السياسية للرئيس المنتهية ولايته، فضلاً عن عوامل أخرى في مقدّمها علاقة «الحلفاء» بالإدارة الجديدة، تجعل من الصعب إلى الآن، نظرياً، الخوض في معترك من هذا النوع هل تَغيّرت حسابات الرئيس الأميركي المنتهية ولايته، دونالد ترامب، حيال المواجهة مع إيران بعد هزيمته في الانتخابات الرئاسية، والتي لم يعترف فيها مع أبرز أقطاب إدارته حتى اللحظة؟ من المعروف أن ترامب اعتمد سياسة “حافة الحرب” مع إيران، على رغم “استراتيجية التوريط” التي اتّبعتها النواة الأيديولوجية ــــ العقائدية النافذة في إدارته، والهادفة إلى دفعه نحو صدام مباشر ومفتوح مع طهران. هو انسحب من الاتفاق النووي بناءً على تفاهماته المسبَقة، قبل انتخابه، مع التيارات الوازنة في الحزب الجمهوري والمجتمع الأميركي، وكذلك مع صديقه الحميم بنيامين نتنياهو، وشنّ على إيران حرباً هجينة شرسة تحت مسمّى “الضغوط القصوى”، لكنه تَجنّب الذهاب إلى حرب واسعة على رغم الجهود المحمومة التي بذلتها النواة المذكورة لحمله على استغلال ما اعتبرته فرصاً للقيام بذلك. لم يقم، مثلاً، بردّ مزلزل على إسقاط طهران طائرة التجسّس الأميركية المسيّرة التي انتهكت مجالها الجوي، ولا عند قصف حركة “أنصار الله” اليمنية منشآت “أرامكو” في السعودية، ما أغضب بعض أقطاب إدارته، كجون بولتون، الذي استنتج بأن ترامب يستخدم وجودهم في الإدارة كورقة ضغط، في إطار سياسة تهدف في النتيجة إلى التفاوض مع الجمهورية الإسلامية، وليس إسقاط نظامها أو إضعافه إلى أقصى الحدود. صحيح أنه أقدم، عملاً بتوصيات هذه النواة، على الأمر باغتيال الفريق الشهيد قاسم سليماني، لكن الردّ الإيراني، الحاسم والمضبوط في آن معاً، بقصف قاعدة عين الأسد في العراق، لم يُلتقَط من قِبَله كذريعة للردّ على الردّ وإفساح المجال لتدحرج المواجهة نحو الحرب التي أرادتها. من الواضح اليوم، بعد خسارة ترامب في الانتخابات الرئاسية، أن “حزب الحرب” في الإدارة سيواصل ما قام به قبلها، أي السعي لفرض المزيد من الإجراءات التصعيدية ضدّ إيران، كما تبدّى مِن خلال “سيل” العقوبات الجديدة بحقّها، والتحريض على خطوات أكثر قسوة، يعتقد البعض أنها قد تصل إلى حدّ توجيه ضربات جديدة تؤدي إلى افتعال معركة كبرى معها، ويراهن على أن رغبة الانتقام لدى الرئيس وأمله بـ”ترك بصمته على الوضع الدولي”، وفقاً لتعبير رئيس “مجموعة الأزمات الدولية” روبرت مالي في مقال نشره أخيراً في “لو موند”، سيُحفّزانه على الموافقة على ما اعترض عليه سابقاً. غير أن التعقيدات المرتبطة بالمشهد السياسي العام، الأميركي والدولي، وبحسابات ترامب نفسها، لا تسمح بالجزم بالنسبة إلى الخيارات التي قد يلجأ إليها.

التقدير الدقيق لميزان القوى يحدّ من حماسة إسرائيل لـ «المعركة الفاصلة» في الظروف السائدة حالياً

أول الاعتبارات التي ستحكم قرارات ترامب حيال إيران في الفترة المتبقية له في البيت الأبيض، هي تلك الانتخابية التي طغت دائماً على أيّ حسابات أخرى، قبل وجوده في السلطة وخلاله. إذا كان ينوي الترشّح مجدّداً للرئاسة عام 2024، حسب المعلومات الواردة من الولايات المتحدة، فمِن غير المرجّح أن يقدِم عن سابق تصوّر وتصميم على الاندفاع نحو مغامرة مرتفعة المخاطر والأكلاف ضدّ إيران. فالقسم الأغلب من الـ 71 مليون أميركي الذي صَوّتوا لمصلحته في الانتخابات الأخيرة، على رغم قناعاته العنصرية وكراهيته المنقطعة النظير للمسلمين ولإيران وانحيازه العقائدي إلى إسرائيل، لا يرغب في رؤية الجيش الأميركي يدخل حرباً جديدة باهظة الأثمان بعيداً عن الديار. المفارقة التي يأخذها ترامب بعين الاعتبار هي أن أميركا العنصرية والمتغطرسة الموالية له، هي إياها التي تريد عودة الجنود الى البلاد من مسارح كأفغانستان والعراق وسوريا وعدم الغرق في نزاعات إضافية. فتح معركة مع إيران، وما قد يترتب عليها من نتائج وخيمة، سيفضيان إلى تقويض فرصه في الفوز بالانتخابات الرئاسية بعد 4 سنوات، لأنه سيَحمل مسؤولية هذه النتائج. علاوة على ذلك، فإن ترامب مدرك أن أجندته الشخصية تختلف جذرياً عن الأجندة الأيديولوجية والعقائدية لـ”حزب الحرب”، كما أشار جون بولتون في كتابه الأخير، وأن هذا الحزب لا يأبه لمستقبله السياسي بقدر تمسّكه بتحقيق غايات يراها بعض أقطابه صناعة للتاريخ، وبعضه الآخر إنفاذاً لتكليف ربّاني. سيستمرّ أقطابه في الدفع نحو تشدّد أعلى مع إيران، وسيتجاوب ترامب مع “نصائحهم” وتوصياتهم طالما تَعلّق الأمر بإجراءات عقابية جديدة، تؤدي إلى تعقيد مهمة الإدارة الديموقراطية في سياستها تجاه طهران، وتُشبع رغبته في الانتقام من الأخيرة التي لم تقبل عروضه لـ”صفقة” معها حسب شروطه. لكن، إن هو عَدَل عن مخطّطاته المستقبلية بشكل مفاجئ خلال الشهرين المقبلين، وغَضّ النظر عن الترشّح في المستقبل، وهو ليس بالاحتمال المستحيل مع شخصية غير مستقرّة مثل ترامب، يصبح خطر المبادرة إلى الحرب، أو الانزلاق إليها بسبب خطوة غير محسوبة، كبيراً. في حالة العزوف عن طموحاته الانتخابية، سيصغي على الأغلب إلى مَن يقول له إن التاريخ سيحفظ اسمه على أنه الرئيس الأميركي الذي أنقذ إسرائيل عبر تدمير ألدّ أعدائها.

طرف آخر ينبغي الالتفات إلى دوره في هذه المرحلة الحساسة، وهو رئيس الوزراء الصهيوني، بنيامين نتنياهو، صاحب التأثير الهائل على ترامب وفريقه. لا شكّ في أنه، والقيادة العسكرية والسياسية الصهيونية، في حالة هلع حقيقية أمام عملية تطوير القدرات العسكرية والصاروخية لأطراف محور المقاومة، وفي القلب منه إيران. حالةٌ ضاعفها عجزهم عن وقف تلك العملية بـ”عمليات ما دون الحرب” وسياسة “الضغوط القصوى” التي استلهمها “حزب الحرب” الأميركي منهم. هم طبعاً يَتمنّون أن تُحوِّل القوة النارية الأميركية محور المقاومة إلى ركام، غير أن التقدير الدقيق لميزان القوى ولقدرات محور المقاومة على التصدّي للعدوان، وافتقادهم إمكانية تأمين حماية فعّالة للعمق الإسرائيلي من الصواريخ الدقيقة والمُوجّهة، هي عوامل قد تحدّ من حماستهم لـ”المعركة الفاصلة” في الظروف السائدة حالياً. الأمر نفسه ينسحب على المشيخات والممالك الخليجية الهشّة، التي لن تحوّل صفقات طائرات “إف – 35” دون صيرورة مرافقها وبناها التحتية رماداً في حال “فَتْح أبواب جهنم”. علاوة على ذلك، فإن مشاركة الإسرائيليين وبعض الأنظمة الخليجية في التحريض على ضرب إيران خلال الفترة الممتدّة إلى العشرين من كانون الثاني المقبل ستكون له انعكاسات غاية في السلبية على علاقاتهم مع إدارة جو بايدن، التي تَعتبر أن أيّ تصعيد يصل إلى الحرب مع إيران هدفه الأول، من منظورها، السعي إلى إدخالها في مآزق، والعمل على إفشال سياساتها منذ اليوم الأول من وصولها إلى سدّة القرار. انحاز هؤلاء لترامب علناً خلال الحملة الانتخابية، لكن مشاركتهم في استراتيجية تخريبية ضدّ الإدارة الجديدة ستكون لها أكلاف بالنسبة إليهم لا يستطيعون تجاهلها مع دولة كالولايات المتحدة. جميع هذه المعطيات تسهم في تعقيد المشهد، وكذلك محاولات استشراف الخيارات التي سيأخذ بها ترامب، لكن الأكيد هو أن المؤشر الأهم الذي قد يتيح إدراكها هو معرفة إذا كان مصرّاً على الترشّح مستقبلاً أو مستعدّاً للعزوف عن ذلك.

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The raging pirate is down! no sorry about him! القرصان الهائج سقط! لا أسفَ عليه!

The raging pirate is down! no sorry about him!

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Dr. Adnan Mansour

A few days ago, the American people said their word. His boss, Donald Trump, dropped, and refused to be re-elected.

It is Donald Trump, who has not stored the world in voluntarily within him, like the hatred and abhorrence he has stored for a president who has left only the traces and filth of his abusive, unjust, tyrannical, savage decisions, which have tampered with international laws, customs and conventions, and the world’s customary assets and laws.

He is with the leaders and rulers of his friendly states, he was blunt, rude, opportunistic, heavy-handed, dictated, ordered, blackmailed, imposed arbitrary decisions on them, to serve his policies, without relying on the rights of others and taking their interests.

They would be slow, poured his anger upon them, and they were watching. His behavior towards the countries that reject his policies is clear, as it was between two options: either to bow to and bear his fierce and unjust decisions against their peoples, or to wait for many sanctions, the blockade and work by all means to overthrow their rulers and regimes.

It is Trump who violated the Charter of the United Nations and ignored its resolutions, and exceeded international laws, by his unilateral actions, which violated the rights of peoples, the sovereignty of states, imposed a financial embargo, an economic and commercial blockade, and resorted to the application of strict policies against it, which led to serious humanitarian repercussions and consequences, which directly reflected on the lives of civilians in all its aspects.

It is Trump, a model of moral degradation, and a human conscience, which once prevented the export of medicine to Iran and Syria, which were most needed, to treat civilians, infants, children, and the elderly, at the height of their fight against the Corona pandemic. Indifferent, indifferent to any sense, human attitude, moral duty, or responsibility of a man of a great power, who is full of freedom, justice and human rights everyday.

It is Trump who has counted thousands of lies by the media that have marked his character in power. He is a rebel, a renegade, a violator of international conventions, and a withdrawal from them, flouting the obligations and signatures of the United States, and respecting them.

It is Trump who withdrew from the Paris Climate Change Agreement three years after. it came into force, which was approved on December 12, 2016.

It is Trump who decided to withdraw from the International Organization for Education, Science. and Culture (UNESCO), where the withdrawal came into effect on December 31, 2017.

On June 17, 2017, Trump imposed new economic restrictions on Cuba and reconsidered the measures taken by former President Barack Obama’s administration that would normalize diplomatic relations with Havana.

It’s Trump who vetoed the international nuclear deal.

He withdrew in 2018, after the five Security Council countries and Germany signed it with Iran, which was approved and supported by the United Nations and the UN Security Council, which was considered a major achievement at the time by the countries of the world, and all the signatories, and is in the service of security and worldpeace.

It is Trump who on February 2, 2019, decided to end Washington’s commitment to the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Power Treaty with Russia, causing a new opening toa dangerous arms race.

It is Trump, who overthrew international resolutions and agreements related to the Palestinian issue, revealed his blatant bias towards the occupied Zionist entity, his abhorrent hostility towards then at Palestinian Arab people, the Arab people as a whole and their legitimate rights, through a series of resolutions and actions he took and implemented, consisting of moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, the nat-nat in it as the capital of the Zionist occupation state, stopping financial support to the Palestinian Authority, and also stopping supporting the Palestinian Refugee Relief Agency (UNRWA), in addition to his decision to close the Palestinian Embassy in Washington.

It is Trump who has acknowledged the sovereignty of the Zionist occupation authority over Jerusalem and the Golan, and supported and supported its resolutions and practices in the construction of settlements and the confiscation of land, in violation of the insolent and flagrant disregard of the relevant UNresolutions.

It is Trump, who has ordered the EUROPEAN Union to increase its military budget within NATO, under threat and threat of action against some of its countries, if not responding, where the EU had no choice but to bow to its demands.

It is Trump, who has imposed harsh sanctions without adopting humanitarian standards that have had a bad impact on more than one country. His immoral and inhuman sanctions against Iran, Korea, Syria, Venezuela, Cuba, Russia and China were against officials, bodies, institutions, companies, individuals, economic, industrial, scientific, medical, Russian, Chinese, Indian, Iraqi, Syrian, Lebanese, Venezuelan, Korean and other personalities.

It is Trump, who has challenged the nations of the world by taking unilateral decisions, outside the framework of the United Nations organization and the international community, against countries that are opposed to hegemony and hegemony, to impose them on the countries of the world against their will, even if they see in these resolutions as illegal, fair and legitimate. Their acquiescence to his will, their obedience to him, and whatever they are, have been visible. Because she is well aware that if he rejects his decisions, he will put them under the guillotine of U.S. sanctions. Many U.S. resolutions have been scaled up, and have hit the core of the dignity, prestige, and prestige of major allies, as they have been shackled, and revealed the extent of their “sovereignty” and freedom of decision, their commitment and respect for international conventions, and their open acquiescence to their decisions. Perhaps the 5+1 nuclear agreement, the living example, to show the whole world the extent to which major countries such as France, Britain, Germany and other u.S. influence, dictates and decisions, where these countries have not been able, until the moment to abide by the nuclear agreement in letter and spirit, and apply it in practice, and deal with Tehran under its terms, because it cannot escape the pressure of Trump and ignore the response to the will, fearing his anger and avoiding sanctions.

He is Trump, a racist whose many positions, and his many tweets, and his many tweets were characterized by hatred and arrogance, through which he insulted and insulted mexicans whom he accused of bringing crime and drugs to his country, in addition to describing African countries with Haiti and El Salvador as scum, and full of “dirty dens”, which generated a wave of anger against his racist statements in the countries of the world, especially within the African Union.

It is Trump, the cowboy dasher, who revealed last September during an interview with Fox News that he had a chance to assassinate Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, but then Defense Minister Metis, was against it! He also ordered the assassination of The Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani and Deputy Commander of the Iraqi People’s Mobilization Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis on January 3 this year.

It is Trump, who has pursued aggressive policies that have shed the blood of thousands of martyrs and wounded in Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen, Palestine and others. Policies that fed the forces of terrorism as. a result of U.S. military, financial, media and logistical support.

It is Trump, a pirate of money and attitudes, who knows where to eat the shoulder, how to exploit, blackmail, and plunder his “friends”, through the soft veiled threat, intimidation, intimidation and intimidation, under the pretext of providing care for them, securing protection and continuity of their existence and governing Their chairs, using the vocabulary of arrogance and cynicism, sometimes, arrogance, mockery, and sometimes contempt, and when needed, enabled him to withdraw hundreds of billions of dollars from their pockets, and the “cute” robbery of their coffers.

It is Trump, whose memory will remain in the memory of the dirtiest and worst policy pursued by the American president, who has never known the politics of morality, nor the living human conscience towards it, and who was thrown by fate to be a day at the head of a great power, who saw nothing but bitterness, and who seought nothing but disappointment in his dealings with them, where his policies were met with more indignation, condemnation, and condemnation.

Today, with the oppressed free peoples of the world, tormented by their destructive policies, which are pursuing him with their curses and their curses, and after his fall, we say aloud: Donald Trump! President, the Americans have uttered, the curses of the free peoples who have suffered on your hands the policies of humiliation, siege, and unjust punishments,

Destruction, killing, and “organized” looting will continue to haunt you wherever you are, and the free world is screaming loudly and chanting with them: Donald Trump, you raging cowboy who staggers and fell, and the free people of the world have not tasted on your hands but the sag, leave, and i don’t regret you…!

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Former Minister of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates

القرصان الهائج سقط! لا أسفَ عليه!

د. عدنان منصور

قبل أيام، قال الشعب الأميركي كلمته. أسقط رئيسه دونالد ترامب، ورفض إعادة انتخابه .

هو دونالد ترامب، الذي لم يختزن العالم كرهاً في داخله، مثل ما اختزنه من كره ومقت شديد حيال رئيس لم يترك لدى دول العالم وشعوبها المقهورة، إلا آثار وقذارة قراراته المسيئة، الظالمة، المستبدة، المتوحشة، التي عبثت بالقوانين والأعراف والإتفاقيات الدولية، والأصول واللياقات المتعارف عليها في العالم.

فهو مع زعماء وحكام الدول الصديقة له، كان عنجهياً، فظاً، انتهازياً، غليظ الطبع، يملي، يأمر، يبتز، يفرض قراراته التعسفية عليها، لتصبّ في خدمة سياساته، دون الإكتراث الى حقوق الآخرين والأخذ بمصالحهم.

فإن تلكؤوا، صبّ عليهم غضبه، وكان لهم بالمرصاد. أما سلوكه تجاه الدول الرافضة لسياساته فواضح، حيث كانت بين خيارين: إما ان ترضخ وتتحمّل قراراته الشرسة المجحفة بحق شعوبها، وإما أن تنتظر منه الكثير من العقوبات، والحصار والعمل بكل الوسائل على الإطاحة بحكامها وأنظمتها.

هو ترامب الذي عمد إلى انتهاك ميثاق الأمم المتحدة وتجاهل قراراتها، وتجاوز القوانين الدولية، بإجراءاته الأحادية الجانب، التي انتهكت حقوق شعوب، وسيادة دول، وفرضت حظراً مالياً، وحصاراً اقتصادياً، وتجارياً عليها، ولجأ الى تطبيق سياسات صارمة بحقها، أدّت إلى تداعيات ونتائج إنسانية خطيرة، انعكست مباشرة على حياة المدنيين من مختلف جوانبها.

هو ترامب، نموذج الانحطاط الأخلاقي، وعديم الضمير الإنساني، الذي منع يوماً تصدير الدواء الى إيران وسورية اللتين كانتا بأشدّ الحاجة إليه، لعلاج المدنيين من رضع، وأطفال، ومسنين، وهما في ذروة مكافحتهما لجائحة كورونا. غير مكترث، وغير عابئ بأيّ شعور أو موقف إنساني أو واجب أخلاقي، أو مسؤولية رجل دولة عظمى، تتشدّق كلّ يوم بالحرية والعدالة وحقوق الإنسان.

هو ترامب الذي أحصت له وسائل الإعلام آلاف الأكاذيب التي طبعت شخصيته وهو في السلطة. هو المتمرّد وناكث العهود، ومنتهك الإتفاقيات الدولية، والمنسحب منها، ضارباً عرض الحائط التزامات الولايات المتحدة وتواقيعها عليها، واحترامها لها.

هو ترامب الذي انسحب من إتفاقية باريس لتغيير المناخ بعد ثلاث سنوات من بدء نفاذها، والتي أقرّت في 12 كانون الاول 2016.

هو ترامب الذي قرّر الانسحاب من المنظمة الدولية للتربية والعلوم والثقافة (اليونسكو)، حيث دخل الانسحاب حيّز التنفيذ في 31 كانون الأول 2017.

هو ترامب الذي فرض يوم 17 حزيران عام 2017، قيوداً اقتصادية جديدة على كوبا، وأعاد النظر في ما اتخذته إدارة الرئيس السابق باراك أوباما، من إجراءات من شأنها تطبيع العلاقات الدبلوماسية مع هافانا .

هو ترامب الذي انقض على الإتفاق النووي الدولي

وانسحب منه عام 2018، بعد أن وقعت عليه دول مجلس الأمن الخمس وألمانيا مع إيران، والذي حظي بموافقة ودعم الأمم المتحدة ومجلس الأمن الدولي، والذي اعتبر إنجازاً كبيراً في حينه من قبل دول العالم، وكلّ الموقعين عليه، ويصب في خدمة الأمن والسلام العالمي.

هو ترامب الذي اتخذ يوم 2 شباط 2019 قراراً بإنهاء التزام واشنطن بمعاهدة القوى النووية المتوسطة المدى، التي أبرمت مع روسيا عام 1987، ليتسبّب بفتح الباب مجدّداً أمام سباق تسلح خطير.

هو ترامب، الذي أطاح بالقرارات الدولية، والإتفاقيات ذات الصلة بالقضية الفلسطينية، وكشف عن انحيازه السافر للكيان الصهيوني المحتلّ، وعن عدائه البغيض حيال الشعب العربي الفلسطيني، والشعوب العربية برمّتها وحقوقها المشروعة، من خلال سلسلة من القرارات والإجراءات التي اتخذها ونفذها، تمثلت بنقل السفارة الأميركية الى القدس، والاعتراnatف بها كعاصمة لدولة الاحتلال الصهيوني، وبوقف الدعم المالي للسلطة الفلسطينية، وبالتوقف أيضاً عن دعم وكالة غوث اللاجئين الفلسطينيين (الأونروا)، بالإضافة الى قراره بإغلاق السفارة الفلسطينية في واشنطن.

هو ترامب الذي أقرّ بسيادة سلطة الاحتلال الصهيوني على القدس، وعلى الجولان، وأيّد ودعم قراراتها وممارساتها في بناء المستوطنات ومصادرة الأراضي، منتهكاً ومتجاهلاً بشكل وقح وفاضح القرارات الأممية ذات الصلة.

هو ترامب، الذي أمر الاتحاد الأوروبي بزيادة موازنته العسكرية داخل حلف الناتو، وتحت التهديد والتلويح باتخاذ إجراءات ضدّ بعض دوله، ان لم تستجب، حيث لم يكن أمام الاتحاد الأوروبي إلا الرضوخ والاستجابة الى طلباته.

هو ترامب، الذي فرض عقوبات قاسية دون الأخذ بالمعايير الإنسانية التي تركت آثارها السيئة على أكثر من دولة. فكانت عقوباته اللاأخلاقية واللاإنسانية ضدّ إيران وكوريا وسورية وفنزويلا وكوبا وروسيا والصين، لتطال مسؤولين، وهيئات، ومؤسسات، وشركات، وأفراد، ومرافق اقتصادية، وصناعية وعلمية، وطبية، وشخصيات روسية وصينية وهندية وعراقية وسورية ولبنانية وفنزويلية وكورية وغيرها.

هو ترامب، الذي تحدّى دول العالم، باتخاذه قرارات أحادية الجانب، خارج إطار المنظمة الأممية والمجتمع الدولي، ضدّ دول رافضة للتسلط والهيمنة، ليفرضها على دول العالم رغماً عنها، وإنْ رأت في هذه القرارات عدم قانونيتها، وعدالتها وشرعيتها. فرضوخ هذه الدول لمشيئته، وطاعتها له، ومهما علا شأنها، كانت ظاهرة للعيان. لأنها تدرك جيداً، أنه في حال رفضها لقراراته، سيضعها تحت مقصلة العقوبات الأميركية. فالعديد من القرارات الأميركية حجمت، وأصابت بالصميم كرامة، ومكانة، وهيبة دول كبرى حليفة له، حيث كبّلها، وكشف عن مدى «سيادتها» وحرية قرارها، والتزامها واحترامها للاتفاقيات الدولية، وعن رضوخها المكشوف لقراراته. ولعلّ الاتفاق النووي الـ 5+1، هو المثل الحيّ، ليبيّن للعالم كله مدى تحرّر دول كبرى مثل فرنسا وبريطانيا وألمانيا وغيرها من النفوذ والإملاءات والقرارات الأميركية، حيث لم تستطع هذه الدول، حتى اللحظة الالتزام بالاتفاق النووي نصاً وروحاً، وتطبيقه عملياً، والتعامل مع طهران بموجب بنوده، بسبب عدم تمكّنها من الإفلات من ضغوط ترامب وتجاهل الإستجابة لإرادة، خشية من غضبه وتفاديا لعقوباته.

هو ترامب، العنصري الذي امتلأت مواقفه الكثيرة، واتسمت تصريحاته، وتغريداته العديدة بالكراهية والاستعلاء، التي من خلالها شتم وسبّ يوماً المكسيكيين الذين اتهمهم بجلب الجريمة والمخدرات إلى بلاده، بالإضافة الى وصفه لدول أفريقية ومعها هاييتي والسلفادور على أنها حثالة، ومليئة «بالأوكار القذرة»، ما ولد موجة غضب عارمة ضدّ تصريحاته العنصرية في دول العالم، وبالذات داخل الاتحاد الأفريقي .

هو ترامب، الكاوبوي الداشر، الذي كشف في شهر أيلول الماضي أثناء مقابلة له، أجرتها معه قناة «فوكس نيوز»، من أنه كانت لديه فرصة لاغتيال الرئيس السوري بشار الأسد، لكن وزير الدفاع آنذاك متيس، كان ضدّ ذلك! وهو أيضاً الذي أمر باغتيال قائد فيلق القدس في الحرس الثوري الإيراني قاسم سليماني، ونائب قائد الحشد الشعبي العراقي أبو مهدي المهندس يوم 3 كانون الثاني من هذا العام.

هو ترامب، الذي انتهج سياسات عدوانية، سالت من جرائها دماء آلاف الشهداء والجرحى في العراق وسورية وليبيا واليمن وفلسطين وغيرها. سياسات غذت قوى الإرهاب نتيجة الدعم الأميركي العسكري، والمالي، والإعلامي، واللوجستي لها.

هو ترامب، قرصان المال والمواقف، الذي بعرف من أين تؤكل الكتف، وكيف يستغلّ، ويبتز، وينهب «أصدقاءه»، من خلال التهديد المبطن الناعم، والتخويف، والترغيب والتهويل، بحجة توفير الرعاية لهم، وتأمين الحماية والاستمرارية لوجودهم وحكمهم وكراسيهم، مستخدماً تجاههم، مفردات العنجهية والاستخفاف، أحياناً، والصلف، والاستهزاء، والاحتقار أحياناً أخرى، وحين تدعو الحاجة، ما مكنه من سحب مئات المليارات من الدولارات من جيوبهم، والسطو «الظريف» على خزائنهم.

هو ترامب، الذي ستظلّ الشعوب العربية، ومعها غالبية شعوب العالم الحرة، تختزن في ذاكرتها أقذر وأسوأ سياسة أتبعها الرئيس الأميركي بحقها، الذي ما عرف يوماً سياسة الأخلاق، ولا الضمير الإنساني الحيّ حيالها، وهو الذي قذفته الأقدار ليكون يوما على رأس دولة عظمى، لم تر منه إلا المرارة، ولم تلمس منه إلا الخيبة في تعاطيه معها، حيث لقيت سياساته عندها المزيد من السخط، والتنديد،

والغضب…

اليوم، مع شعوب العالم الحرة المقهورة، المعذبة بسياساته المدمّرة لها، التي تلاحقه بلعناتها وأنينها، وبعد سقوطه، نقول بصوت عال: دونالد ترامب! أيها الرئيس الذي لفظه الأميركيون، إن لعنات الشعوب الحرة التي عانت على يديك سياسات الإذلال والحصار، والعقوبات الظالمة،

والدمار، والقتل، والنهب «المنظم» ستظلّ تلاحقك أينما كنت، وأحرار العالم يصرخون بصوت عال ونردّد معهم: دونالد ترامب، أيها الكاوبوي الهائج الذي ترنح وسقط، ولم يذق أحرار العالم على يديك غير الحنظل، إرحل، ولا أسفاً عليك…!

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وزير الخارجية والمغتربين الأسبق

ISRAEL WARNS OF COMING WAR WITH IRAN IF BIDEN WINS AS TRUMP CALLS

Israel Warns Of Coming War With Iran If Biden Wins As Trump Calls
Illustrative image

Israel has warned of the coming war with Iran if Joe Biden wins the US presidential election, which Donald Trump has already called extremely rigged.

“Biden has said openly for a long time that he will go back to the nuclear agreement,” Settlements Minister Tzachi Hanegbi warned said, according to Jerusalem Post. “I see that as something that will lead to a confrontation between Israel and Iran.”

The minister recalled that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and most Israelis saw the Iran Deal signed by the Obama administration in 2015 as “mistaken – and that’s an understatement.”

“If Biden stays with that policy, there will, in the end, be a violent confrontation between Israel and Iran,” he stated. According to Hanegbi, the aim of US President Donald Trump to negotiate a new deal with Iran is not the same because it would be “a different agreement that he would force through maximum pressure sanctions.”

The policy of the Trump administration allowed Israel to achieve significant gains in promoting its agenda in the Middle East. For example:

  • In December 2017, US President Trump announced that the US recognizes Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and transfers its embassy there. In May 2018, the US embassy was opened in Jerusalem.
  • In May 2018, Trump declared the withdrawal of the United States from the nuclear deal with Iran and the launch of a “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran. In the coming years, he followed this approach increasing and increasing the sanction and even military pressure on Teheran.
  • In March 2019, the US ruled by the Trump administration recognized the Syrian Golan Heights as the Israeli sovereign territory.

The potential shift of this policy under the new administration will at least partially undermine the Israeli positions in the region thus forcing Tel Aviv to take more measures to protect the recent gains. In own turn, Iran will try to exploit this to re-establish its influence in new areas. This, according to Israel, will lead to the inevitable confrontation.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump appears to be sure that the Democratic establishment (globalists and neo-liberals) is trying to steal his victory in the presidential election through an apparent vote fraud (a lot of evidence of which is available online). And it seems that the current US President is not planning to surrender.

At the same time, mainstream media outlets and social media giants have been increasingly censoring repots on the fraud and even comments saying that the situation seems at least questionable.

🚨🚨🚨 The amount of FRAUD being reported in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Georgia and Wisconsin is unreal. Please report personal experiences. Please have all facts and evidence. #StopTheSteal pic.twitter.com/leJJh2XhXd

— Eric Trump (@EricTrump) November 5, 2020

For example, Facebook publicly confirmed that it is censoring pro-Trump groups that are concerned over potential vote count irregularities.

“In line with the exceptional measures that we are taking during this period of heightened tension, we have removed the Group ‘Stop the Steal,’ which was creating real-world events,” a Facebook spokesman said.

The corporates seem to be scared by pro-Trump protests.

ZeroHedge’s report on even more strange things in the election is below:

Why Does Biden Have So Many More Votes Than Democrat Senators In Swing States?

In most elections, the majority of votes are cast “down the ticket” – meaning, a voter supports both party’s presidential nominee and state Congressional candidates. In fact, according to Pew Research, “overwhelming shares of voters who are supporting Trump and Biden say they are also supporting the same-party candidate for Senate.”

Typically, this means that that the number of votes for a presidential candidate and that party’s Senate candidates are relatively close.

Twitter user “US Rebel” (@USRebellion1776), however, found that the number of votes cast for Joe Biden far exceeds those cast for that state’s Senate candidates in swing stateswhile those cast for Trump and GOP Senators remains far closer.

Israel Warns Of Coming War With Iran If Biden Wins As Trump Calls

In Michigan, for example, there was a difference of just 7,131 votes between Trump and GOP candidate John James, yet the difference between Joe Biden and Democratic candidate Gary Peters was a staggering 69,093.

In Georgia, there was an 818 vote difference between Trump and the GOP Senator, vs. a 95,000 difference between Biden and the Democratic candidate for Senator.

Yet, in two non-swing states, there was “no massive flood of mysterious empty Biden votes,” leading US Rebel to suggest “It’s fraud.”

In Wyoming, the difference on the Democratic side is is just 725 votes, while in Montana the difference is 27,457.

MORE ON THE TOPIC:

Blacklist of Iranian media by Bernie’s DSA suggests no Iran change with Biden

Monday, 02 November 2020 6:17 AM  [ Last Update: Monday, 02 November 2020 8:01 AM ]

US Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) (L) talks with Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) during a rally with fellow Democrats before voting on H.R. 1, or the People Act, on the East Steps of the US Capitol on March 08, 2019 in Washington, DC. (AFP photo)
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (L) and former Vice President Joe Biden (File photo)

By Ramin Mazaheri

Blacklist of Iranian media by Bernie’s DSA suggests no Iran change with Biden

Ramin Mazaheri is currently covering the US elections. He is the chief correspondent in Paris for PressTV and has lived in France since 2009. He has been a daily newspaper reporter in the US, and has reported from Iran, Cuba, Egypt, Tunisia, South Korea and elsewhere. He is the author of ‘Socialism’s Ignored Success: Iranian Islamic Socialism’as well as ‘I’ll Ruin Everything You Are: Ending Western Propaganda on Red China’, which is also available in simplified and traditional Chinese.

PressTV’s guiding light has always been to be a “voice for the voiceless”. This is why it was collectively decided that in our coverage of the US presidential election primacy should be given to third parties and non-mainstream political groups, as a political duopoly systematically and legally suppresses them with such vehemence that it causes many to say that US elections should actually not be considered fair or open.

We have interviewed and passed on the analyses of socialists, Greens, Libertarians and more. However, perhaps the most prominent outsider political group has repeatedly refused our normal media requests – the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), which is perhaps best incarnated by its figurehead, the failed presidential candidate Bernie Sanders.

In another effort designed to give unheard American voices more media coverage, PressTV sent their primary election correspondent not to Washington, New York City or California, but to the unofficial capital of what’s disparaged as “flyover country” – Chicago, the nation’s 3rd-largest city. However, in online discussions DSA’s Chicago chapter openly refused to speak with Iranian media, saying: “The officers of our organization have decided that it would not serve our interests to do an interview.”

That’s a curiously self-centered phrase for a group of officers who likely aspire to serve as civil servants – aren’t civil servants supposed to put the ideals and needs of the nation ahead of their own interests?

Chicago DSA’s conduct was, sadly, in keeping with PressTV’s experience with DSA’s national leaders: for weeks their New York City headquarters has not returned our calls, even when the calls were from PressTV management asking about this apparent blacklist of Iranian media. Representative Rashida Tlaib, one of DSA’s two national-level politicians, also refused to return contacts from PressTV, even though we assumed that she would definitely want to help break past the longstanding communication barriers which have been erected by American Islamophobia. 

Personally, I am not surprised by any of this: If I had one euro for every time an (allegedly) leftist group in France (where I am normally based) refused to speak with PressTV – I could afford a month’s vacation. But for the Iranian taxpayer and voter French fake-leftism is not as important as the DSA’s refusal to speak to Iranian media: France has slavishly followed Washington’s foreign policy on Iran for decades, and DSA now aspires to set that policy.

PressTV feels it is critical to broadcast the DSA’s blacklisting of Iranian media because DSA’s prejudice has many political implications within the country that has waged such devastating capitalist-imperialist war on Iran since 1979. Iran, too, has a critical election coming up to prepare for – in June 2021.

Regardless of the timing of the US presidential election – and Iranians reject the absurd, pathetic and amateurish recent claims that Iranian operatives have meddled in the 2020 US election – it is critical to broadcast this information to Iranians so they can have a proper amount of time to absorb and incorporate the implications of DSA’s anti-Iran prejudice into their own analyses as voters and responsible citizens. 

So PressTV’s decision is merely responsible public journalism. This cannot – as DSA openly feared, you will read – possibly be construed as “foreign meddling” by any thinking person.

That preamble now dispensed with, the conundrum posed by DSA’s arrogant blacklisting is this:

If this is the (allegedly) leftist wing of the Democratic Party, and they are so very nakedly anti-Iranian, then why should an Iranian believe that victories by Joe Biden and the Democratic Party will herald a major change in Washington’s belligerent, murderous, long-running policy towards Iran? Many currently suggest this, but DSA’s anti-Iranian stance must give us pause for reconsideration.

The (allegedly) leftist wing of the Democratic Party is not some new, principled, pro-Iran lobby in the lobby-dominated US system

DSA is the one influential group within the Democratic Party (but I will easily disprove the myth of their reach shortly) which openly and repeatedly promises to push the Democrats to the left, and yet they clearly have no interest in basic discussion or the merest exchange with Iranians.

They will talk about Iran, but not with Iran – this is a fundamentally unilateral and classically imperialist stance, no?

And this stance remains unjustly firm even when Iranians insist openly that they have a cooperative and even sympathetic stance towards DSA – I have already related PressTV’s editorial policy regarding the election. Iranians will likely see parallels between the efforts of PressTV to speak cooperatively with DSA officials and the efforts of Iranian diplomats to speak cooperatively with officials in Washington.

DSA may be surprised to learn that Bernie Sanders was reasonably appealing to Iranians, and probably for the same reason he is somewhat popular among the American public – he and DSA make pleasant-sounding promises which contradict the incredible and undeniable belligerence, violence and rapacity of Washington. For an Iranian nation which debated for years in public about the JCPOA pact on Iran’s nuclear energy program, which sacrificed much to implement it, and which is waiting even today for Western nations to finally uphold their word after signing it, there is a lot of lure in words like these from the DSA’s most prominent elected official member, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 

“I think, overall, we can likely push Vice President Biden in a more progressive direction across policy issues,” said Ocasio-Cortez in September. “I think foreign policy is an enormous area where we can improve; immigration is another one.”

But how can DSA improve US foreign policy if they refuse to dialogue with foreign nations and their media representatives? How can the knowledge of foreign policy which is held by DSA officials – from the national down to the local level – increase, and thus improve their ability to conduct foreign policy if elected or appointed to office, if they are forbidden or unwilling to engage with foreigners? How can foreign policy improve when dialogue comes from only one unilateral direction? How can diplomatic progress be pushed in a more progressive direction if there is such a huge gap between words and actions, as Iran is currently fuming about due to the West’s failure to honor the treaty they have signed?

For many in places like Iran, China, Russia and elsewhere, these logical questions are about as difficult to understand as it is to understand the funny way a knight moves in chess, yet all this appears to be beyond the ken of DSA. Whatever DSA’s rationale – ignorance, apathy, duplicity, inexperience, cynicism – it results in a huge, telling blind spot which may produce deadly real-world consequences for Iranians.

However, DSA is not just illogical, but also – we are sad to say – unprincipled and even hysterical.

The Chicago chapter of DSA made this very clear in their messaging to me (PressTV may decide to publish all our correspondences, but only if our honesty and accuracy is questioned – we assume it will not be.) when they said, “…DSA will not reach the levels of relevancy necessary to be an active player in building those ties if we make choices that our political enemies can use to claim we are under the influence of foreign powers.”

DSA rather exemplifies the common global perception of Western-style democracy via admitting to a belief that one should attain political relevancy not by years of exemplary public service and by providing proofs of moral selflessness in favor of the masses and especially of the lower classes, but merely by making enough brutal realpolitik moves.

What DSA fails to realize is that even if they achieve their goal of relevancy, by the time they do the perceptive American people will have seen right through their phony claims, hypocrisy and inability to uphold quintessentially American values like the freedom of the press. This article is one example – necessarily rendered for public view and public judgment – of DSA’s phony claims. DSA will simply not get away with xenophobic, anti-free press polices such as this one forever, I am sorry to inform them.

To whom does this policy extend? Russia, China, Cuba, etc.? These countries will also publicly ask the same questions Iran is asking now. How much of the world is DSA planning to exclude from the human right of free speech, free press and the expectation of basic politeness and cooperation?

DSA seems to foolishly believe they are a private group or private media – absolutely not: many of their members are running for public office and thus they must be transparent, diplomatic and held to higher standards – DSA does not seem to realise their own voters will expect that of them?

DSA is not going to push the establishment anywhere, because they are the establishment

In that explanation from DSA there is another telling trait: unreasoning hysteria, which leads to very real, very damaging xenophobia, ignorance and the foundations of war. It’s hysterically paranoid of DSA to assert that merely speaking with Iranian media – which has very little reach in the US (due to American censorship of our outlets) – automatically means that DSA members are “under the influence of foreign powers”.

This reveals a hysteria regarding the unscrupulous behavior of their opposition – DSA’s “political enemies”, who are also, incidentally, their fellow citizens – but more importantly it reveals the lack of a backbone to stand up to and to combat unscrupulous and hysterical behavior.

There is also an implication there about what they seem to believe is the low intelligence of the average US citizen – that they apparently cannot be trusted to think rationally, and for themselves, and in favor of freedom of the press? That’s surprising, especially because the average American is so very much in favor of freedom in the press.

But it mainly reflects a hysterical lust for power. DSA is saying quite clearly: to hell with the average American’s oft-trumpeted values of free press and free speech if it might hinder DSA’s acquisition of influence and privilege.

I don’t know why they are so worried about gaining power? DSA already has it. (Or, rather, they incorrectly think that they do.)

Every single other third party jumped at the chance when Iranian media came knocking on their door with a promise of balance, fairness and open ears except for DSA. This is because DSA is undoubtedly a part of the establishment, unlike other third parties and non-mainstream political groups. DSA is not an official political party, but they do much to give this impression. No, DSA is and has always been merely committed to working within the Democratic Party establishment and has no interest in upending the anti-democratic duopoly which dominates the US and – crucially – keeps providing the world’s richest nation with such atrocious public servants.

Ok, so they are another American political group which is totally allied with the establishment and thus is also totally anti-Iran – so what?

How bad is DSA’s blacklisting of Iranian media, really?

The reality is that DSA are a paper tiger if there ever was one. Iranian voters, diplomats and thinkers must look past their youthful, photogenic appearances and (obviously) empty words.

DSA currently has about 75 members holding national, state, city and county posts in this huge country of 330 million people. That includes just three members in federal posts, all in the House of Representatives. Bernie Sanders is not even a member of DSA. The idea that such a powerless minority will somehow be handed top cabinet posts in a Biden presidency is beyond laughable, yet DSA supporters constantly dangle this exact claim.

However, that ludicrous claim is made precisely to get people to not vote for a real third party, especially a genuinely socialist one, like Party for Socialism & Liberation for example. What’s even funnier is that American reactionaries fearfully believe these outlandish claims by DSA! But American reactionaries are especially foolish.…

Non-Americans should realize that DSA exists to act as an anti-progressive safety valve within the Democratic Party – DSA is incredibly effective at ensuring that the establishment does not have to make any genuine domestic changes. They are not “socialists”, they are “reformists”, and their obvious flaw is that they are mere reformists of an atrocious, antiquated, aristocratic, capitalist-imperialist system.

DSA has just brazenly proven that when it comes to Iran they won’t lift a finger in favor of major changes in Washington.

But they want no real changes domestically, too, and they couldn’t even get them achieved even if they weren’t just paper tigers: From Bernie’s backing down in 2016 despite leaked proof of collusion against his candidacy by the Democratic Party elite, to the ascendance of the Clintonista Kamala Harris in 2020, to infuriatingly and unforgivably adding the qualifying adjective of “Democratic” to “Socialist” which actually propagandizes against international socialism and not for it, to the unspoken reality that DSA’s media prevalence is almost wholly due to a hysterical American right-wing which needs some leftists (even fake-leftists) to scapegoat – this list can go on and on and on. 

Deeper explanations as to why DSA is repeatedly seen but never felt in American politics are obviously too numerous to list here, but – when it comes to DSA readers – this article does not aim to focus on DSA’s shortcomings but instead to persuade them to reform their anti-Iranian press policy.

The reality which non-American readers must comprehend is that the US system is based entirely on the influence of monied lobbies. Iranians must realize that there is absolutely not one single pro-Iranian lobby within the US, but that there are many, many anti-Iran lobbies willing to pay for influence (and also for Iran’s destruction) within this strange “democracy with American characteristics”.

In short, unless Iran sells off a significant minority of Iran’s state-controlled economy to American corporations, or unless Iran recognizes Israel, no such pro-Iran lobby can be created: those are the preconditions which the US 1% has always insisted upon from modern Iran in order to end their hot and cold war.

Of course, not only are these things democratically rejected by the Iranian people, but any intelligent analysis of Iran shows that (and DSA members may learn something new about Iran here) any political party which undertook such efforts would be democratically voted out of office before they could complete such immoral, unpatriotic and anti-revolutionary tasks. Iran is a unique (revolutionary) nation with a unique (revolutionary) structure, and just as the US Constitution clearly prescribes an awful duopoly, modern Iranian culture has created – via undeniably vibrant, innovative and open debate over decades – a political system which proscribes certain things, two of which were mentioned in the preceding paragraph.

This is precisely why people like Bernie Sanders and DSA hold such appeal in Iran: the enlightenment of the average US voter appears to be the only way that Washington will ever give up their war on revolutionary (unique) Iran.

This is precisely what makes DSA’s blacklist of Iranian media so disheartening: it shows that neither mainstream party appears to have any sincere goodwill towards Iran – which is the basis of cooperation between equals – not even on the (alleged) left.

Of course, that concept is hardly new among Iranians.

Conclusion: One is on the right path over and over again, but via necessary self-corrections

It seems entirely necessary to assert that DSA’s promises of a progressive push to foreign policy towards Iran are not achievable at best and entirely disingenuous at worst, especially if they do not engage in immediate and sustained self-reform.

The current leaders of the DSA stand in incorrect opposition to the democratic will of 80 million Iranians, and we can safely assume the democratic will of their own members as well, and probably – by a slight democratic majority – the democratic will of 330 million Americans.

As it currently stands DSA – like so many Westerners – arrogantly, imperialistically and chauvinistically insists that they have the right to tell Iranians what they should want, and what they should do, and that if Iranians do not slavishly follow them then this means war… or at least silence, suppression and blacklisting for starters.

That is all totally unacceptable.

This article serves notice to Iranians as to what the DSA appears to have in mind for Iran should they gain power – their views are absolutely not rightly-guided. As to Americans who are about to head to the ballot box, this article makes no suggestion – it only fairly and accurately adds new information.

PressTV would like to place great emphasis on the ideas which are guiding our coverage of this unfortunate issue:

PressTV expresses no any animosity nor hard-heartedness to DSA due to their mistakes regarding Iran – they have obviously been misled via decades of unchecked Western Iranophobia. PressTV cannot stress enough that our desire for normal cooperation, friendly discussion and moral comportment has not been changed one iota despite this disagreement and the necessary airing of our fair and dispassionate criticisms, which are made entirely in the name of normal journalistic and (informal) diplomatic dialogue. PressTV would be rude to appear as if we are making any demands of anyone or any organisation – nor would PressTV degrade themselves thusly – we only politely ask, publicly, that DSA reform their stance on their misguided decision to blacklist Iranian media.


Press TV’s website can also be accessed at the following alternate addresses:

www.presstv.ir

www.presstv.co.uk

www.presstv.tv

Trump’s 1st win gutted Iran’s moderates – will 2nd win push a military man into office?

Source

November 01, 2020

Trump’s 1st win gutted Iran’s moderates – will 2nd win push a military man into office?

By: Habib A. Abdolhossein for the Saker Blog

Habib is the editor-in-chief at PressTV, Iran’s English-language media organisation. He is an Iranian media expert and holds an M.A. in Media management from the University of Tehran.

With less than two days to the US election many Iranians are eagerly following the news, as they expect the outcome to impact their own futures.

The ultimate fate of the fragile 2015 Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, and the future of ties between Tehran and Washington truly hinge on the outcome of the November 3 vote.

US President Donald Trump left the nuclear agreement in tatters by abandoning it in May 2018. He imposed the “strongest sanctions ever” against Iran as part his “maximum pressure” campaign aimed at forcing Iran to make compromises on crucial issues, including its nuclear activities and its highly-touted missile program.

The feeling in Tehran is that Tump’s re-election would mean the continuation of the “maximum pressure” campaign. In fact, the incumbent says if he wins the vote Iran will be forced to seek a deal “within the first month” of his second term. But as his hands are still wet with the blood of Iran’s top general, Qassem Soleimani, he is not the desirable option for Iran to resume talks with.

Joe Biden’s victory, on the other hand, is expected to genuinely shift US policy on Iran. In an opinion article published by CNN, Biden said if elected president he would, “offer Tehran a credible path back to diplomacy”.

Biden’s presidency could be a game-changer for Iran’s reformists and moderate politicians who are vying for a political comeback by championing enhanced relations with the West.

“If Biden becomes U.S. president and rejoins the JCPOA, Iran will get a major achievement… But if Trump is re-elected, he will continue his maximum pressure against Iran and will pose new challenges for the Iranian economy,” confirms Dr. Ahmad Naghibzadeh, Tehran University professor and a member of Executives of Construction Party, a reformist party in Iran.

Reformists, who are already under fire for their support for President Hassan Rouhani’s administration, thus consider pursuing diplomacy with Biden as a more feasible way to promote their agenda.

“The new government should take advantage of the opportunities made after the U.S. elections to normalize ties with the world and tackle the sanctions…. Reformists view power as a tool for entering into negotiations with the world,” says Seyed Hossein Marashi, spokesman of the pro-reform Kargozaran Sazandegi Party.

However, the obvious reality is that such an attitude barely strikes a chord with the general public in Iran – geopolitical concerns have been put on the back burner after years of being a regularly-discussed topic. A majority of Iranians are instead obsessed with economy, which is cracking under sanctions and the Covid-19 pandemic outbreak.

Vote of no-confidence for Reformists

Back in 2013, Rouhani swept to a landslide, first-round victory as a centrist with a campaign of “prudence and hope”. Rouhani promised to rescue the economy by ending Iran’s international isolation. Seven years on, with the economy reeling from re-imposed US sanctions, those hopes have clearly been dashed. Many of his supporters are disappointed and even outraged with Rouhani’s “empty” promises of change.

Rouhani’s victories in the 2013 and 2017 presidential elections actually had less to do with his own popularity than with a tacit alliance with the reformists. Support from key reformist figures, including ex-President Mohammad Khatami, who had pinned hopes onto Rouhani’s pro-reform pledges, played a key role.

Many voters see too big a gap between Rouhani’s campaign rhetoric and the reality of his governance. Furthermore, his performance has also inflicted a heavy toll on the popularity of moderates who threw their weight behind him.

“Rouhani was not a reformist but the reformists put their social capital on sale by supporting him…” says former MP Nasser Qavami, who believes reformists have already lost the game by supporting a non-reformist.

Reformists and other moderates now have almost no selling point to entice even their own disillusioned supporters to vote. They can no longer hope to defeat the conservatives who have already conquered parliament.

The 2020 parliamentary elections were a litmus test for moderates: With the lowest turnout since the 1979 Islamic Revolution (admittedly affected by the pandemic), reformists didn’t just lose the vote but were annihilated: they dropped from a plurality of 121 seats to just 20 seats.

Trump or Biden? Yes, it does it make a difference for Iran

Whether the incumbent Donald Trump is re-elected or his Democratic rival Joe Biden wins the White House cannot help but decisively impact Iran’s immediate foreign policy strategy because, from the point of view of moderates, the two candidates have genuinely different approaches to Iran. This runs counter to the conservatives’ view, which is that an anti-Iran policy is the only policy possible from Washington no matter who is elected.

Seyed Mohammad Marandi, a key political analyst and a professor at Tehran University, believes Iran will be in a better position if Trump wins the U.S. election.

“An internationally isolated US under Trump will have little chance of gaining any serious accomplishment against Iran. But if Biden wins, he will act better in forging consensus against Iran,” Marandi asserts.

Despite his bellicose rhetoric, Trump has indicated that he doesn’t want a war with Iran, and he has employed military intervention far less than his recent predecessors. However, there is no guarantee he will follow this same strategy in his second term, worrying many.

“Since he doesn’t need voters’ support in his second term, the possibility of military confrontation with Iran increases,” suggests Afshar Soleimani, an Iranian political analyst.

With that in mind, a Trump victory may cause Iran to ultimately lean towards a more aggressive approach: ditching the landmark nuclear deal and boosting the controversial missile program. Much to the chagrin of the US, Iran is now allowed to export arms after a 13-year old ban was just lifted under the JCPOA. Houthis in Yemen and Lebanon’s Hezbollah top the list of allies whom Iran may supply with weapons.

The best option to enforce this type of a change to foreign policy could be a president who has served in the military.

Military-turned president in the making?

This should be viewed as a major strategic shift as the Islamic Republic has always had a civilian president.

“This position should be run by a strategic individual who has a better military and security expertise to take on a pivotal role in the strategic management of the country,” says Hossein Allahkaram, a conservative pundit and former IRGC officer.

There are mounting speculations that former defense minister and IRGC commander General Hossein Dehqan may run for president in the 2021 election. A senior military advisor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, Dehqan has already served in the defense ministry in the Khatami and Rouhani administrations. He also headed the key Foundation of Martyrs and Veterans Affairs during Ahmadinejad’s first term.

But the vital question is whether Iranian society is ready to accept a military commander as president?

“This depends on the national strategy. A military president is not likely to win a landslide victory,” says reformist analyst Mohammad Sadeq Javadi Hessari. “This could be an option by conservatives to take advantage when low voter turnout is expected,” he crucially emphasizes.

Iranians have already indicated that they have great reverence for their military commanders – millions turned out in nationwide funerals and commemorations after Soleimani was killed.

For many Iranians Trump’s re-election means more tensions with the US are certain. With low voter turnout expected, a soldier-turned president could be an option unless Washington’s “maximum pressure” stops before Iran’s June 18th presidential vote.

Such a choice could even work with Biden as president: It could pressure the White House to not set impossible preconditions for returning to the JCPOA, or not attempt to keep the sanctions in place as leverage.

What’s certain is that the new US president will have little chance to negotiate a new deal with outgoing Iranian president Rouhani, whose term ends in almost eight months.

Iranians will certainly be more demanding should they enter any talks with US again. They have lost their top general Soleimani and incurred serious damages under Trump-era sanctions. They expect US compensation to be offered just to resume talks.

Opening the window of diplomacy seems to be more conceivable with Biden than Trump. The victor would be wise to remember that resistance is expected to remain an option for Iran – as usual – regardless of who is finally elected in the United States.

There won’t be an Iran October Surprise

There won’t be an Iran October Surprise

October 18, 2020

by Pepe Escobar and first posted at Asia Times

No Washington-designed “maximum pressure” has been able to derail a crucial milestone this Sunday: the end of the UN arms embargo on Iran, in accordance with UN Security Council 2231, which has endorsed the 2015 JCPOA deal.

The JCPOA – or Iran nuclear deal – was unilaterally ditched by the Trump administration. But that, notoriously, did not prevent it from engaging in a massive campaign since April to convince the proverbial “allies” to extend the arms embargo and simultaneously trigger a snapback mechanism, thus re-imposing all UN sanctions on Tehran.

Foad Izadi, professor of International Studies at Tehran University, summed it all up: “The US wanted to overthrow the government in Iran but failed obviously, they wanted to get more concessions out of Iran, but they have not been successful and they actually lost concessions. So the policy of maximum pressure campaign has failed.”

Under the current US electoral shadow play, no one can tell what happens next. Trump 2 most certainly would turbo-charge “maximum pressure”, while Biden-Harris would go for re-incorporating Washington to the JCPOA. In both options, Persian Gulf oil monarchies are bound to increase the proverbial hysteria about “Iranian aggression”.

The end of the arms embargo does not imply a renewed arms race in Southwest Asia. The real story is how the Russia-China strategic partnership will be collaborating with their key geostrategic ally. It’s never enough to remember that this Eurasian integration trio is regarded as the top “existential threat” to Washington.

Tehran patiently waited for October 18. Now it’s free to import a full range of advanced weaponry, especially from Moscow and Beijing.

Moscow has hinted that as long as Tehran keeps buying Su-30s, Russia is ready to build a production line of these fighter jets for Iran. Tehran is very much interested in producing its own advanced fighters.

Iran’s own weapons industry is relatively advanced. According to Brigadier General Amir Hatami, Iran is among a select group of nations able to manufacture over 90% of its military equipment – including tanks, armored personnel carriers, radars, boats, submarines, drones, fighter jets and, crucially, land and seaborne cruise missiles with a respective range of 1000 km and 1400 km.

Professor Mohammad Marandi from the Faculty of Policy Studies at the University of Tehran confirms, “Iran’s military industry is the most advanced in the region and most of its needs are provided by the Ministry of Defense.”

So yes, Tehran will certainly buy military jets, “but Iranian made drones are the best in the region and they’re improving”, Marandi adds. “There is no urgency, and we don’t know what Iran has up its sleeves. What we see in public is not everything.”

A classic case of the public face of something that can’t be seen was just offered by the meeting last Sunday in Yunnan province in China, between excellent pals Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s Foreign Minister, and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi.

That’s of course part of their own strategic partnership – to be sealed by the now notorious $400 billion, 25-year, trade, investment and energy deal.

Both China and Iran happen to be encircled by rings of the US Empire of Bases and have been targets of varying, relentless brands of Hybrid War. Needless to add, Zarif and Wang Yi reaffirmed the partnership evolves in direct contrast with US unilateralism. And they must have discussed weapons trade, but there were no leaks.

Crucially, Wang Yi wants to set up a new dialogue forum “with equal participation of all stakeholders” to deal with important security issues in West Asia. The top precondition for joining the forum is to support the JCPOA, which was always staunchly defended by the Russia-China strategic partnership.

There won’t be an October Surprise targeting Iran. But then there’s the crucial interregnum between the US presidential election and the inauguration. All bets remain off.

يوم إقليميّ دوليّ فاصل: 18 تشرين الأول

ناصر قنديل

خلال العقدين الأولين من القرن الحادي والعشرين، تحوّل المشهد الدولي القائم من جهة، على وجود مشروع سياسي عسكري اقتصادي للقوة الأميركية العظمى التي فازت بنهاية الحرب الباردة مع سقوط جدار برلين وتفكك الاتحاد السوفياتي، ومن جهة مقابلة على بدء تبلور ممانعة دولية متعددة المصادر لهذا المشروع من قوى كبرى ومتوسطة، على خلفيات مصالح إقتصادية وإستراتيجية قومية تحت عنوان رفض عالم أحادي القطبية، وشكلت روسيا الجديدة مع الصعود السريع للرئيس فلاديمير بوتين، والصين الجديدة مع الصعود التدريجي للرئيس جين بينغ، لكن إيران التي كانت تتعافى من نتائج وتداعيات الحرب التي شنّها النظام العراقي عليها، كانت تدخل معادلة القرن الجديد من باب واسع، فهي تتوسّط قلب المنطقة الساخنة من العالم، التي ستشهد حروب الزعامة الأميركيّة للقرن، وهي الداعم الرئيسي للمقاومة التي انتصرت بتحرير لبنان عام 2000، وقد بدأت برنامجاً نووياً طموحاً ومشاريع للصناعات العسكرية تحاكي مستويات تقنية عالية، وتشكل خط الاشتباك المتقدّم مع المشروع الأميركي ضمن حلف يتعزز ويتنامى على الضفتين الروسية والصينية، ويحاكي خصوصية أوروبية فشل المشروع الأميركي باحتواء تطلعاتها ومخاوفها.

خلال العقدين الماضيين كان الخط البياني التراجعي للمشروع الأميركي، بعد فشل الحروب الأميركية على العراق وافغانستان وسورية والحروب الإسرائيلية المدعومة أميركياً على لبنان وغزة، تعبيراً ضمنياً عن خط بياني صاعد لموقع ومكانة إيران، التي وقفت بصورة مباشرة وغير مباشرة وراء الفشل الأميركي، وفي قلبه صعود في خلفية الصورة لمكانتي روسيا والصين وتقدم لتمايز أوروبي عن السياسات الأميركية، ويمثل ما كان العام 2015 نقطة تحوّل في السياسة الدولية، مع توقيع الاتفاق الدولي بقيادة أميركية مع إيران على ملفها النووي. كان هذا الاتفاق تسليماً بمكانة إيران الجديدة، دولياً وإقليمياً.

جاء الانسحاب الأميركي من الاتفاق النووي ترجمة لهجوم معاكس يقوده ثلاثي أميركي إسرائيلي خليجي، يقوم على إنكار حقائق المواجهات السابقة، ومحاولة لصياغة معادلات بديلة، وكان عنوان هذا الهجوم على جبهتين، جبهة إقليميّة تشكلت من جهة على ترجمة الحلف الجديد بمشروع إقليميّ حمل اسم صفقة القرن لحل القضية الفلسطينية وعزل إيران عن التأثير بمساراتها، وانتهى بالتطبيع الخليجي الإسرائيلي من جهة وتوحّد الساحة الفلسطينية كمعني أول بالمواجهة، خلف شعارات المقاومة التي تدعمها إيران. من جهة موازية، كانت الجبهة الثانية دولية تشكلت على خلفية السعي لتعميم نظام العقوبات وصولاً لخنق الاقتصاد الإيراني، وفرض تفاوض جديد بشروط جديدة عليها، وكانت النتيجة من جهة تعاظم الضغوط الناتجة عن العقوبات الأميركيّة القصوى على إيران، ومن جهة موازية عزلة أميركية دولية في فرض منهج العقوبات على إيران، وفشل واسع في الحصول على دعم أمميّ لها، بما تخطى الرفض التقليدي لروسيا والصين لسياسة العقوبات، مع انضمام أوروبا إلى المصوّتين ضد الدعوة الأميركية.

في 18 تشرين الأول عام 2020، يسقط بموجب الاتفاق النووي، الحظر الأممي على السلاح بيعاً وشراء بالنسبة لإيران، بعد محاولات مستميتة فاشلة بذلتها واشنطن لتجديد الحظر، وكان واضحاً ان إيران بذلت جهوداً دبلوماسية معاكسة مع اوروبا تضمنت ضبط إيقاع المواقف الإيرانية من الاتفاق النووي بما يحفظ بقاءه كإطار دبلوماسي قانوني على قيد الحياة، وقد كانت فرصة اللقاء مع وزير الخارجية الإيرانية محمد جواد ظريف في مطلع العام بعد نهاية زيارة مفوض السياسات الخارجية في الاتحاد الأوروبي جوزف بوريل إلى طهران، مناسبة لسماع موقف إيراني عنوانه، انتظروا 18 تشرين، إنه الموعد الفاصل بين مرحلتين، والفوز الإيراني بحلول هذا الموعد وتثبيت حق إيران بسقوط حظر السلاح عنها، سيكون فاتحة مرحلة جديدة نوعيّة، يتقاطع انطلاقها زمنياً من باب الصدفة مع اقتراب الاستحقاق الرئاسي الأميركي.

RUSSIA SAYS “NO PROBLEM” DELIVERING S-400 MISSILES TO IRAN WHEN UN EMBARGO EXPIRES

Originally appeared at ZeroHedge

Currently Iran already operates the S-300 anti-air defense system, but just ahead of the major UN weapons embargo set to expire this month, which the US contests, Russia has once again strongly suggested that it’s poised to transfer its more advanced S-400 system to Iran.

The latest comments on the issue were made Saturday by Russia’s ambassador to Tehran Dzhagaryan who told an Iranian newspaper Saturday it would be “no problem” for Moscow, in effect signaling a green light for such a deal.

“As you know, S-300s have already been delivered. Russia has no problem delivering S-400s to Iran. This was never a problem from the very beginning,” the ambassador said.

Russia Says "No Problem" Delivering S-400 Missiles To Iran When UN Embargo Expires
Russian S-400 file image

Source

The UN arms embargo expires October 18, but Washington has vowed to go it alone in imposing ‘snapback’ sanctions after a failed UN bid to extend the embargo. European signatories to the 2015 nuclear deal have denied that the US has this legal authority, given it pulled out of the JCPOA in 2018.

On that note, Amb. Dzhagaryan remarked that Russia “took a strong stance against the United States and called on the deal’s three European signatories to stand together with us.”

“But the issue I want to address is very important: the three European countries did not support the United States, but they also continue to criticize Iran’s activities in the region. On one hand, they say that the arms embargo against Iran should be lifted,” he said in the interview. On the other, they say that Iran should not continue its activities. The Russian side has said from the start that there would be no problems selling arms to Iran starting on October 19.”

Looking ahead to the UN embargo’s expiration, under two weeks ago Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov indicated to Interfax news that Russia will pursue the “opportunity” of lawful weapons sales to Iran the moment the embargo expires:

“New opportunities will emerge in our cooperation with Iran after the special regime imposed by U.N. Security Council Resolution 2231 expires on Oct. 18.”

“The amount of this cooperation and the areas in which it will develop is a separate question,” he added.

Ryabkov added that Russian cooperation with the Islamic Republic has “nothing to do with the unlawful and illegal actions of the U.S. administration, which is trying to intimidate the entire world.”

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