Day 11 – Putin’s last warning before beginning of the 2nd phase of the operation

March 06, 2022

Source

First, since Boris Rozhin did take the time to write up a summary for the day, I will begin by sharing with you a machine translation of his summary of the day:

1. Negotiations between the Russian Federation and Ukraine will be held tomorrow on the territory of Belarus. Moscow has made it clear once again today that if Kiev does not accept the conditions (without any concessions), the consequences for Ukrainian statehood will be severe. The United States says that the second phase of the operation may begin on Monday, including operations to establish control over Odessa and Kiev, as well as the encirclement of the AFU group in the Donbas. In the statements of Zelensky’s gang, there are more and more hysterical notes and accusations against the West that he threw (there has never been such a thing).

2. Humanitarian corridors in Mariupol and Volnovakha are still being disrupted by the Nazis from Azov, despite all agreements. Is anyone surprised? I’m not. So far, it has been possible to free about 300 people from the hands of terrorists who were holed up in Mariupol. Several dozen more were able to escape from Volnovakha. Ukrainian terrorists do not want to get rid of their human shield in any way. Which condemns many people to death when the counter-terrorist operation begins in Mariupol itself and the active cleaning of Volnovakha continues.

3. Misunderstandings continue with Zelensky’s real whereabouts, and Ukrainian and American sources are dispersing the news about Zelensky’s impending evacuation to the West, and the search for spies and traitors is also continuing. Kivu was accused of “high treason” and put on the wanted list. They’ll catch him, probably kill him like Kireev. And there they will already think who he is a “traitor” or a “hero”. Zelensky himself said today that the West wants Ukrainians to be killed (woke up) and that “we are fighting for where the new border will be.” The old border will obviously no longer exist. The borders will change in any case – the question of course is interesting, where they will pass.

4. Anti-war rallies are taking place in the Russian Federation today, with the help of which Zelensky called for stopping the operation in Ukraine. Judging by the number of people gathered, even the arrest of Navalny (who is this, by the way?) and coronavirus restrictions (by the way, where is covid?) they worried citizens more. But let’s see, maybe by the evening the number will grow up. In the meantime, everything is pretty pathetic, which was apparently facilitated by a fierce information sweep, which continued today.

5. The enforcement of the law on fakes on the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation has begun today. The first lucky person got off with a fine of 60,000 rubles. I had the idea to write about the problems in the offensive operation (of course, they also exist), but I’ll wait for now – we need to see how the law works in practice. Well, or after the end of the operation there will be material when military censorship will not be so fierce.
With regard to the operation itself, it is worth noting that even in the West there are discrepancies regarding the plans of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, although the progress on the map gives some idea of what they are striving for. From a subjective point of view, priority No. 1 is the destruction of the AFU group in the Donbas by encircling and defeating this group, which will deprive Ukraine of most of the armed forces and heavy equipment.

***

Yesterday Putin had a most interesting conversations with members of what look like members of an flight attendant union.  We hope to bring the the whole thing subtitled in English later today, but here is the key sentence made by Putin during that conversation:

Translation:  If the leadership of Ukraine continues to do what they are doing, it will call into question the future of Ukrainian statehood, and that will be entirely their responsibility

I think that it is important to understand the context in which Putin made this statement.  As a reminder

• The Ukronazi armed forces are down to less than 25% of its original size.
• Almost all the remaining forces are in some type or another of cauldrons.
• Russia has full air supremacy
• The Ukronazi fleet does not exist anymore
• In spite of all the propaganda, no help from abroad will affect the outcome of this war
• It appears that Russia will surround Odessa and eventually take control of the entire Ukrainian Black Sea coast

In other words, what seems to be shaping up is that Russia will soon have control over the entire Ukraine except for the western provinces (west of Vinnitsa and Zhitomir).  In other words, the war is over, at least militarily.  There will be a meeting between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators tomorrow, and it shall be interesting to see if something, anything, will come out of it.

The west is clearly determined to heroically fight Russia down to the last Ukrainian.  Russia wants to stop this operation as soon as possible, but only after her double goals of 1) disarmament and 2) denazification are achieved.

Right now the big question is Kiev.  It’s a big city with plenty of civilians and probably 30-50 thousand combatants of all different kinds (VSU, SBU, Volkssturm, deathsquads, looters, etc.).  The logical solution would be to offer the combatants (and the civilians) corridors to exit the city, but the West can’t have that.

Now if the Ukies won’t vacate Kiev, then some rather serious fighting will take place inside the city and clearing the city from the Nazis will demand the involvement of a major Russian force.  It appears that these forces are now in their staging areas all around the city (except for the south).

Think about it this way: the frontline (line of contact) is now very long and the Ukies don’t have enough forces to even try to hold any frontline in such a context.

However, remember the number of Russian forces deployed along the Ukrainian border – about 100’000+ or so soldiers?  It appears that there are currently not enough Russia forces to fully exploit the Russian advances over the past ten days.  Alternatively, we could say that  the Russian force is big enough, but that now it has to sharply increase its use of firepower to further develop its operations.

For all these reasons, here is what I suppose is in the making:

• If the Ukrainian delegation agrees to a surrender, then things can be resolved with the least amount of needless deaths and suffering.  However, the West will not allow the Ukrainians to surrender and those Ukrainians who might agree to talk will get shot by their own (it is happening all over Banderastan right now).
• Having received a Ukrainian rejection, I believe that Russia will bring in more forces and will begin by clearing out the Mariupol and Odessa cauldrons (or “soon to be cauldrons”).
• In at least one case (near Voznesensk) a Ukrainian counter-attack did break through the Russian defensive lines.  This shows that the Russian lines are thinning out as a consequence of their own successes, and that then allows the Nazi forces to mount successful counter-attacks.
• It is also quite clear that the US/NATO is offering the Ukrainians its full reconnaissance/intelligence support and that while their own networks and command posts are gone, the US/NATO continue to support Ukie operations.

For all these reasons, and failing some kind of ceasefire, the next 7-10 days ought to see a sharp increase in Russian operations not only in the air and on the ground, but also on the sea where the Black Sea Fleet will be engaged to secure the Ukrainian coast line.  The Russian might also have to do something about NATO’s intel/recon support for Ukrainian forces, either overtly or with a modicum of plausible deniability.

Which begs one question: how far west are the Russians willing to go?

I don’t know.  But I know that during his talk yesterday Putin indicated that “only” supporting and defending the LDNR would not be enough because the Ukrainian forces in the Donbass would receive a constant flow of support from the West.

Hence the Russian General Staff decided that it needed to do two things first: destroy the Ukrainian defense infrastructure and 2, encircle the Ukronazi forces in the Donbass by a envelopment/pincer movement from the south and the north.  I still am waiting for a confirmation that this operational-level cauldron is locked, but nobody (that I know of) produced any recent map for today.  Still, I think that we can safely assume that cauldron will be locked very soon (or has already been locked).

Still, major (relatively speaking) Ukrainian force concentrations have dug in and are ready for long urban combat operations in at least the following cities: Odessa, Dnepr and Kiev.  Could the Russian military evict the Nazis from these cities?  Yes, Mariupol is being cleaned up as we speak, but only at a high human cost (on all sides) and by bringing in more firepower (on the ground and in the air).

My guess is that the Russians have decided to clear the entire south front first.  Russian forces are already in between Nikolaev and Odessa, and the Black Sea Fleet has reportedly conducted strikes southwest of Odessa.  Right now the Black Sea Fleet is keeping the Ukrainians guessing whether there will be an amphibious assault and if yes, were.

I am no prophet, but a securing a bridgehead southwest of Odessa to then land an amphibious assault force and develop it all from there seems like a reasonable idea to me.

Once both Odessa and Nikolaev are either taken or, at least, solidly surrounded then Russia can free more forces to move north.  Likewise, as soon as the operational cauldron in the Donbass is locked, this will also free more forces to then move west.  If this is successful, then Russia will have achieved a strategic cauldron encompassing the entire Ukraine west of the Vinnitsa-Zhitomir line.

If this is not successful and Russians lose their tempo, then the only solution left will be to sharply increase the intensity of the entire operation.  I think that this is exactly what Putin had in mind when he said “If the leadership of Ukraine continues to do what they are doing, it will call into question the future of Ukrainian statehood, and that will be entirely their responsibility“.

So, to sum it all up:

1. Russia would prefer to end this war at the negotiations table
2. The West wants to fight Russia down to the last Ukrainian
3. and the Ukrainians…   …actually, I have no idea what they are up to, what they still hope for, what they understand or not, but the best thing they could do would be to rise up against the Nazis, disarm them and declare their cities open.  Either that, or emigrate.

This is a totally depressing thought, but I see no other option for Russia but to turn up the “pain dial” on both the Ukrainians and the West and see if they are now willing to stop this war.

If not, then turn it up again, and then repeat as many times as needed until either 1) the West capitulates or 2) the Ukraine is unilaterally disarmed and denazified by Russia.

Here is what is also crucial to understand:

Russia was willing, when forced, to intervene in the Ukraine.  If forced, Russia will take on any country, including any NATO member country, which will assist the Ukrainians militarily.  If forced, Russia will even fight all of NATO and the USA together and, if forced, she will use all her weapons, including nuclear ones.  And if that means that the entire planet is nuked then, as Putin said, “we have no need for a planet without Russia”.  All this is to say that Russia is not bluffing, Putin will not back down and that there is no price which Russia would not be willing to pay to prevail in this existential war.

Russia will not stop until her existence is made safe again.

What about the West?

I believe that the West has a “smartass policy”: we do fight down the the last Ukie, and we get as many Steppe Niggers and Snow Niggers to kill each other, but then we stop just short of nuclear war with Russia.

Question: do you trust the geniuses in power in the West to successfully walk this tightrope?

I sure don’t.

Reach your own conclusions.

Andrei

Ukraine Day 7: Russia Changes Tactics, Off Come the Gloves (great videos)

Units of nationalist battalions shoot at cars of civilians that try to leave the city.

March 2, 2022

By VT Editors

By the seventh day of the operation in Ukraine, the Russian military has changed its tactics, both in terms of conducting military actions and its attitude towards the civilian population.

Numerous unmanned reconnaissance vehicles of the Russian Armed Forces were observed in the skies over Ukraine. Rear and supply columns began to move with combat guards. The movement of armored vehicles, both on the march and in urban areas with infantry on armor, was noted.

The presence of strike aircraft in the skies of Ukraine has increased. Coordination and interaction between various units have intensified. Artillery is used wherever possible. Additionally, the Russians began striking military facilities that they had apparently previously planned to seize relatively undamaged.

The reaction of Russian units to provocative actions on the part of civilians and especially members of the so-called territorial defense forces has also changed. Kiev urges civilians to resist by forcefully throwing Molotov cocktails at vehicles, blocking roads and launching surprise attacks, approaching under the guise of peaceful intentions.

Until March 1, Russian servicemen had orders to avoid retaliating to provocations in every possible way. Now, the order seems to have changed and Russian units started to act in accordance with the standards of behavior on enemy territory.

For example, on March 1, in response to an ambush by units of the territorial defense near Kherson, who attempted to throw Molotov cocktails at a Russian convoy, brutal retaliatory fire was opened on the enemy. Video records at least 10 dead.

The change in the tactics is attributed to the experience of the first five days of the conflict and the fact that combat generals and senior officers with extensive experience of combat operations in various regions were brought in to command.

The Ukrainian authorities refuse to provide evacuation assistance to their population. Residents in Kyiv are being given up to the mercy of fate. The railway station is jammed. Police and law enforcement forces are absent. Looting and chaos are on the rise.

Russian units are in no hurry to enter the capital. They are expanding the zones of control around it. Russian troops are now close to Brovary, where they have gained a foothold.

On March 1, Russian forces entrenched on the outskirts of Kharkiv, amid heavy missile and bombing strikes against key military infrastructure facilities. There is intermittent exchange of fire in the outskirts. The city administration rejected negotiations on the opening of a humanitarian corridor. Units of nationalist battalions shoot at cars of civilians that try to leave the city.

DPR and Russian units completely surrounded Mariupol. Almost all of the neighboring settlements are under the control of “Eurasian Coalition” forces. The humanitarian corridors will be open until the end of March 2. After that, the final mopping up of the city is likely planned.

Fighting is going on in Volnovakha, the key stronghold of Kiev in Donbas. Ukrainian units are trying to provide cover for the withdrawal of their main forces from the region.

The DPR military officially confirmed that the headquarters of the Ukrainian Task Force “North” was completely destroyed. Almost all the officers were killed. The headquarters of the “East” task force was also destroyed.

LPR forces also enjoyed considerable success. As of March 2, Starobelsk and a number of nearby villages were liberated. Progress is being made towards Severodonetsk and Rubizhne. Svatovo has been blockaded. Russian troops reached Izyum and entrenched their attack positions.

Meanwhile, Russian forces are breaking through defenses near Vasilievka, the stronghold that covers Zaporizhia. Losses on all sides are reported.

These events came amid the complete takeover of the important regional center of Kherson. The administration is cooperating and doing its best to maintain a peaceful situation in the city with the help of the Russian Armed Forces. The disarmament of the members of the “territorial defense” began. The police, ambulance and emergency services are working as usual.

Russian forces are encircling Nikolaev city. As of March 2 morning, the city is already semi-enclosed. The Nikolayev – Krivoy Rog road is cut.

The war in Ukraine from 2014 to the present has already become the bloodiest conflict in Europe in the last 77 years, surpassing all of the Yugoslav wars combined. Over the past six days, according to sources inside the conflicting parties, at least 2 730 personnel on the Russian and LDPR side and 11 150 on the Ukrainian side, including deserters, have been killed or missing.

VT Editors

VT Editors is a General Posting account managed by Jim W. Dean and Gordon Duff.

All content herein is owned and copyrighted by Jim W. Dean and Gordon Duff

One week into the Russian special operation in the Ukraine – update

March 02, 2022

So we are a week in and I think it is time to take short pause and see what happened over the last 7 days.

• The Russian attack began, as predicted, mostly by strikes with standoff weapons.  24 hour hours later the Ukie air force and navy ceased to exist.  In this initial phase, few Ukrainian units were directly engaged.
• The bulk of the Nazi forces is in Donbass and it took the LDNR forces several days to break through the Nazi defenses, but eventually they did it in two directions.  At the same time, while the heavy combats between the Nazi forces in the Donbass and the LDNR forces were taking place, the Russian launched a two pronged offensive from the north and south to envelop the Nazi force concentrations.  Interestingly, in spite of the fact that the two Russian forces have not reached each other and in spite of the existing no man’s land between them, the Ukronazis are not making any serious efforts to break through since they must realize that the entire area between the two Russian forces is a big “free fire zone” for Russian artillery, CAS aircraft and attack helicopters.  For all practical purposes the entire Nazi concentration of course in the Donbass is now locked into an operational cauldron.
• The same is true for the Nazi forces in Mariupol.  For them, it’s curtain down, show over.
• There is a large Nazi force left in only one location: Odessa.  It appears that the Russians want to encircle it and then take a final decision on how to deal with this city.
• Kiev is a total mess, the Russians did not even try to enter the city yet, but the crazy rumors combined with terrified Ukronazis will make this one a particularly difficult situation to resolve.  I personally hope that the Russians stay as they are, block the city on all sides, open a humanitarian corridor and wait until the time is right.
• On the informational war, the West gave Russia a thorough thrashing: RT and Sputnik are banned everywhere, absolutely insane rumors are circulating (see example below), I know for fact that some US colleges have banned their computers from accessing any .ru or .su websites –  yes entire domain names are being shut down – Russian diplomats get assaulted (in one of the 3Bs statelets if I remember correctly).
• The western PSYOP onslaught is so powerful that even some people in Russia are fearful and sincerely worry “what will happen to us next?!”.
• Western IT companies are disconnecting, throttling, while “private” western crackers are unleashing DDoS attack on pretty much all the main Russian websites, not only informational ones, but also those who are used to run the civilian infrastructure of Russia.  I am not impressed by how much (or little) Russian PR people did to prepare for this which was easy to see coming.  Here, again, the West so far is winning, but a huge margin.
• The western society is displaying its hatred of all things Russian in every way it can: hundereds and maybe thousands of students are summarily expelled from western colleges (which used to be bastions of freedom).  In a Swiss city the child of a friend of mine was beat up in school for being an “evil Russian”.  Artists are expelled, others pressured to condemn their own country and president, western presstitutes and politicians unceasingly vomit at Russia, Russians and everything Russian!

Which tells me how truly impotent and frustrated they are 🙂

That being said, here is the good news:  Today, one of our favorite trolls managed to bypass moderation and post this (see comment).

What is important here is to realize that whether this guy does it for money in a NATO troll farm or with utter sincerity, he is about to get a really big, probably huge, mental shock.

Right now, the entire western narrative hangs on this kind of nonsense: Russia is about to be totally defeated, the Ukie army and people have won on all fronts, and Ze, backed by NATO, the EU, the US and the entire planet is about to deliver his conditions for a Russian capitulation.

The maps?

All fakes.

The local reports?

All fakes too.

So far, that has worked pretty well.  But here are the stone cold fact about the Ukie military:

• Air Force: gone
• Navy: gone
• Long range, standoff capabilities: gone
• Air defenses: gone
• Regular ground forces: no less than 65% (some say up to 80%) of the Ukie military is surrounded and condemned
• Assorted Nazi units: I don’t have the figures, but A LOT of them are now either in the Donbass cauldron or in Mariupol.  They will mostly not be taken prisoner, except for the leaders who will be tried and sentenced for their innumerable crimes.

So, in terms of the Russian goals, here is how I would score this:

• Ukrainian disarmament: mostly already done, the Ukraine has nothing to threaten Russia with
• Ukrainian denazification: only at the early start, but conditions are excellent and I am confident that most of the hardcore Nazis will soon be dead

One more thing I forgot to mention about the “no man’s land” west of the Donbass operational cauldron.  It is shown in the map below where the black and yellow lines touch (and add about 5-10km on each side)

It’s not only that only small groups, maybe civilian cars at high speed can get out, it also means that the entire Nazi force in the Donbass is not getting resupplied.  Not by air, not by sea and not by road.

Right now, amazingly, the Ukronazis are STILL shelling the LDNR, today 5 civilians were murdered by Ukie selling near Donetsk.  So they are not even trying to break out, I suppose they know the score and with their supplies running out (many destroyed by heavy bombs) their lifespan is now counted in days.

Please keep in mind that while this force is surrounded, it did have SEVEN YEARS to dig in deep and place tons of concrete over their bunkers.  But like the Ligne Maginot, while the LDNR were pinning down the Ukies, the Russian enveloped them from behind.

So one of two things will now happen.

1. Either the Russians will convince the Ukie commanders to surrender and evacuate safely or
2. Russia will start using her really having guns (MLRS, TOS-1, heavy artillery like the 240mm self-propelled gun-mortar 2S4 Tyulpan or the 203mm self-propelled howitzer 2S7M Malka) and even fuel-air explosives like this one: (I know, it’s from CNN, but in this case, it is helpful)

In other words, the real magnitude of the Ukrainian defeat will become impossible to conceal in just a few days.  Then the narrative will shift from the “invincible Ukie Volkssturn” to “Russian atrocities”.

That narrative will also probably stick since the western free press makes the original Nazi press look outright diverse and objective.  But idiots such as the troll above will be very, very butthurt.  I expect their “oy veh!!!!” to reach high heavens and heroic Ukies will be replaced by no less heroic celebrities sobbing over Ukie babies.

On a strategic level, the Empire of Lies did successfully force Russia to openly intervene.  That is a fact and that is a defeat with the Russians will have to ponder over for many years.  I will repeat, here are two, alas very real, western victories:

• Forcing Russia to openly intervene
• Very effectively controlling the narrative

But don’t get too upset too soon.  For one thing, the authorities in Russia have FINALLY declared both Dozhd and Meduza as foreign agents and it seems these two zioliberal sewers are finally being shut down.  Seeing how Medvedev is trying to repaint himself as a patriot, I think that the Atlantic Integrationists are now realizing that they were stupid to listen to the western propaganda. I have not followed the Russian 6th column at all, so I don’t know if they are still hoping that “Putin” (for them it is all about him, personally) will “lose” or whether they will chose to wrap themselves into the “too little, too late, I could have done better” flag.  Frankly, I don’t really care.

Next, they will start seeing Russian 5th columnists and assorted “liberal” their signatures away from their “open letters” or, better, emigrating to the EU or Israel.  I sincerely wish them a happy flight and I hope that upon leaving Putin’s Mordor and arriving in the Free West they will all burn their Russian passports (on camera if they want).

So, what’s my “final intermediate conclusion” after week 1?

The West gave Russia a bloody nose by forcing her intervention, thereby crushing any chance for the EU to get decolonized in the next decade or more.

The West gave Russia an even bloodier nose by very effectively controlling the narrative.

But what’s next?

Russia will/has disarm(ed) and will soon denazify the Ukraine, that is a given.

But what after that?  Please remember that this is NOT about the Ukraine, this is about the entire future security architecture of Europe.

I will just say this: while, no, Russia won’t invade the EU or even Poland, the Russian war to push back NATO has only begun, it will last MANY MONTHS so be prepared for this.  MONTHS.

Please ready yourself for a long and difficult struggle.

Andrei

Open letter to TV watching western armchair generals

February 28, 2022

My dear TV western armchair generals,

I get it, I promise.  I really do!

Your entire life you have been trained to see a successful military operations like so:

Victory US style!

Begin by bombing the shit of the “hadjis” or “sand niggers” with bombs and missiles, then flatten their town à la Fallujah, then move in with heavy armor and shoot everything which still moves or breathes.

Then distribute chewing-gums to a few kids while on video.

Then take the city center, drop a statue in front your embedded presstitutes, and then declare victory.

Then, after declaring victory, stay another 20 years or so (Blinken was clearly projecting!), ruin it completely, then leave it again and declare another brilliant victory.

And don’t forget to declare urbi at orbi that you reserve the “right” to bomb the shit out of them anytime you deem it is needed.  And fuck their sovereignty or anybody else’s while we are at it!

Lastly, once home, don’t forget to “thank” your “veterans” for their “service”.

I get it.

Now YOU try, please!!

Now, in spite of this conditioning, please at least try to understand the following points:

First, the Russians do not see Ukrainian as Hadjis but as their own brothers.

Second many/most LDNR soliders have relatives in the Nazi occupied Ukraine.

Third, yes, Russia can turn any Ukrainian city into Fallujah, but who do you think will then have to pay for its reconstruction?

Fourth, please understand that the double goals of 1) denazification and 2) disarmament implies that any person which is not a Nazi or is not armed and hostile is not, repeat, NOT the target of the Russian armed forces.

Fifth,  the Ukie military was 80% defeated on Day 1.  Get that?  It was gone as a coherent fighting force.  THAT is why they are blowing up bridges, distributing weapons and releasing convicted criminals.  NOT because they are winning!  I mean – how stupid are you if you believe that?  Ukie stupid?

Seriously?

Right now you are the object of probably the biggest PSYOP operation in history. If you realize that and treat these PSYOPs as you should, that is as “informational warfare from the bad guys” you will be able to tell your kind and grandkids “I never believed that crap”. Good for you!

But if you don’t, well then, just don’t tell too much about you in 2022 to your kind and grandkids, save yourself the ridicule and embarrassment…

That’s it. My very last attempt to wake you up.  From now on, I will pretend like you don’t exist and instantly ban any comments parroting kind of self-evident nonsense.

Now I will quietly leave your room, switch off the lights, and let you watch your TVs.

Andrei

PS: I know the blogs load slow.  We made hardware changes and we might have to do more.  But that costs (lots) of money and time.  We are doing our best with our means, but with both UncleShmuel and Soros out there to “get us” to the tune of billions of dollars spent, they are definitely winning and holding the upper hand in this informational war.  Wanna help?  SPREAD THE INFO as much as you can and SEND MORE MONEY for our IT.  That is what “Biden” and Soros have that we don’t: many people and many dollars.  That’s just a fact.

Day 3 – Western PSYOPs in full overdrive

February 26, 2022

I warned my readers but alas, many ignored my warning.

So all day I was flooded with stupid questions asking me to respond to western PYSOP fakes.  And I have to admit, this time they pulled all their forces together: western ziomedia, Eurorodent media, the “worldwide solidarity campaign”, vodka being pulled out from US stores, etc. etc. etc.  The example below was taken today from one British website, I just put the three headlines together, see for yourself what they proclaim:

I have to admit that the Russian Atlantic Integrationists, the 5th columnists and the 6th columnist are also out in force.  Oh sure, only a few hundred people here and there, but the main goal of their demonstrations were achieved: the western PSYOPs will now tell you that most Russians are totally opposed to this military operation or even to Putin.  Self-declared members of the supposed “intelligentsia” have joined forces and are posting open letters of protest in the Russia media.  Bravo!  You chose a crucial moment to make your move and the Russian people won’t forget or forgive you for this.  I expect a wave of “political emigration” from Russia towards the EU to begin pretty soon.  Good!  The Kremlin should pay for their airline tickets and moving costs if they are willing to surrender their Russian passport before take-off.

But what do *I* do now???

I have two options:

• Debunk all of this until I drop dead from exhaustion
• Ask you to wait another 24-26 hours and revisit it all

As you can guess, I pick option #2.

So, please don’t bother asking me whether it is true or not that 3 courageous Ukie grannies stopped and destroyed an entire column of Russian tanks.  If you ask the question, you disqualify yourself from getting an reply from me.

Next, here is how things more or less stand:

Not much new here from this morning.  Let me rephrase that – there are plenty of developments, but not major changes to the map.  The one exception if that the LDNR forces and the Russian forces from Crimea have joined just north of Mariupol.  The city will be stormed and it will be very violent as Mariupol is to the hardcore Ukronazis what the Donetsk airport was in the first and second wars.

The other big news is that heavy Russian systems (MLRS, TOS-1) have been seen in numerous locations, they might be used to prevent an escape of Ukie forces from the operational cauldron in the Donbass.

In the meantime, the glorious French Navy has intercepted a Russian flagged cargo ship with cars destined for Saint Petersburg under the pretext that the bank owning it was under “sanctions” (reminder: only the UNSC can impose sanctions, all others only steal).  This act of piracy on the high seas got an enthusiastic support from the western PSYOPs (see here and here).

As for our Ukie friends, they have mostly evacuated to Lvov and declare that they will negotiate with Russia “from a position of force”.  Like NATO.  And the EU.  And the US.

Good luck with that!

I have to add that I am personally deeply hurt and offended by the “russophobic consensus” in the West.  I always knew that there was a hardcore of Russia-haters out there, but I also thought that there was a generally pro-Russian part of the public out there too.  Today their silence is deafening.  The poet Yehuda Bower once wrote these lines:

Thou shalt not be a victim.
Thou shalt not be a perpetrator.
And above all,
Thou shalt not be a bystander.

For me, this is about modern Europe who prefers to glorify Nazis then to stop hating Russian for our two major sins: first, that we exist, and, second, that we live on your natural resources.  Either that, or we are dealing with a cold-hearted indifference of a society which has no other values left than rabid consumption and hatred of the other.

Clearly, the vast majority of people in the West see us, Russians, as Snow Niggers who had the nerve to burn down their Master’s plantation and who now deserve to be lynched by “a few resolute men”.

To all those who hate us, and many of them read this blog, I have this to say: your hatred and hypocrisy say nothing about us, but they do say a lot about you:  You even hate us more than you (pretended) to hate the Nazis.

All of Zone A is declaring its total, unwavering and categorical support with, and sympathy for,  the Ukronazi mass murderers.  Even western Jews rather side with the Banderites than to just leave Russia alone.  So tonight, I can honestly say: my disgust with the West knows no limits.

***

Which leaves one big question: Kiev.  One Ukrainian observer, Iurii Podoliaka, whose map I use above, thinks that the Russians might storm the city and establish some kind of provisional Ukrainian government over there.  Frankly, he might be right, but I don’t like it.  Not even one tiny bit.

I would much prefer if Russian forces stayed just outside the cities they blocked/surrounded.  Let the Ukies simply stew in their urban areas for, say, a week.  THEN see what your options are.  All the doubleplusgoodthinking virtue signaling hypocrites always shed crocodile tears for the “innocent civilians” almost every time a war breaks out.  Unless the civilians are Russians or Serbs or Iraqis (‘bad guys”), of course.  But in this case, I think that in this specific case the Russians should go out of their way to minimize casualties on ALL sides, including the Ukrainian one.  Here is why:

The Ukro-Nazis have basically recreated Hitler’s Volkssturm and distributed all the weapons they had to anybody willing to grab one.  Which means this: in the very near future, the Ukronazi version of the Rwandan Interahamwe will soon be roaming the country.  Far from looking like Somalia or Yemen, Banderastan will soon look like some particularly dangerous part of the Congo.

And, I want the Ukrainian people to clean house, not the Russians, sorry.

I do not want my country involved in Banderastan, not economically, not politically, not socially.  While I TOTALLY approve of the double-goal of disarmament and denazification, I while I do very much hope that the Russians will kill most Nazis and destroy those weapons systems and capabilities which threaten Russia.  But no more than that!

I am very sorry, but the Ukies created this ugly and bloody mess, and its for them to clean it.  We owe them exactly *nothing*.

It is therefore NOT in Russia’s interest to kill or even disarm all of the Ukrainian law enforcement or even the military.  And if that means to slow down to talk first, I hope that they do it.

To give you a taste of the current chaos, I leave you with a screenshot of an announcement made in a major Ukie rail-station (which I shall not identify).  Check this out, along with my translation:

The Ukro Volkssturm in action 🙂

Attention
Please disseminate the following amongst your contacts.  N Rashist-saboteurs (Note: “rashist”: slur on Russian) have disguised themselves in Ukrainian police uniforms.  They understand Ukrainian but they can be recognized because they wear an ear-piece!!!!!!!  So if you see a cop with an ear-piece he is not a Ukrainian policeman.  Be super careful or simply shoot them on sight.

Cute, no?

And, predictably, there are numerous reports from surrounded and even from partially occupied cities that heavily armed gangs are shooting it out with each other.

Yesterday, a Ukie Volkssturm group even attacked an SBU (Ukie KGB) and disarmed them (thanks guys, that helped Russia for sure!).

Want another crazy event?

“Ze” announced that 80 Ukrainian special forces members died defending a small island from a Russian assault.  According to “Ze” – they all died heroically. Problem: in reality, they surrendered to the Russians, were evacuated, processed, fed (water and MREs) and house in dorms until their evacuation back home.

But who cares about the truth?

In a Zone A turned “massive orgy for shiteaters” where the truth does simply not matter, not even conceptually!

Each lie is “fired” in lieu of a missile or a shell, as the Anglos say “all is fair in love and war”.

Nothing really new here, Russians have been exposed to that since the Winter Crusade times.

Anyway, I will end with a few requests which I REALLY would appreciate you respected:  please,

• Stop asking me to debunk western or Ukie sources
• Stop posting link to the Zona A media, corporate or social, in the comments section
• If you “feel sorry but…” or “have your doubts about…”, then please keep them for yourself for at least the next 24 hours (36 would be better)
• And if you have any love, care or respect for your own brain and neurons, STOP listening to the Zone A media.  Be kind to yourself, or prepare to look stupid once you open your mouth.

Okay, I am taking off for the evening.

“See” you all tomorrow late morning with, hopefully, less “fog of war” and more real news.

Cheers

Andrei

PS: try to remember that this is only day 3 of the war, even the comparatively small 08.08.08 war lasted 5 days (including only three of real combat).  This one should take a week or so, depending on the objectives of the Kremlin (which I am still not quite sure about).

Russian operation in the Ukraine – end of day 2

February 25, 2022

Today was only day two of the Russian military operation.  And yet, what a day it was!!!

First, a quick update on the progress of Russian forces.  Here is a bulletpoint summary for today:

• Kherson: liberated
• Nikolaev: fighting taking pace in outskirts
• Konotop: taken by Russians
• Chernigov: blocked by all sides by Russian forces
• Melitopol: surrounded
• Mariupol: is under attack, street fighting
• Severodonetsk: under attack
• Kharkov: very heavy mopping up operation
• Suma: mopping up operations
• Kiev: blocked from the West and under attack, the authorities are distributing weapons
• Gostomel airport has been captured by Russian forces
• Zaporozhie: Russian forces expected there tomorrow
• A land corridor from Crimea to Russia should be opened by tomorrow.
• Odessa: big question mark – so far, not Russian attacks reported (that I know of!)

Ukie Tochka-U intercepted by LDNR air defenses

Now about Donetsk and Lugansk:

• Both cities are still under fire, and that goes to show that the advance of the LDNR forces has been slow, which is hardly surprising considering that the Ukronazis had 7 years to prepare their defenses.  Still, things ARE getting better.  Not only that, but the LDNR air defenses shot down a Ukie Tochka-U missile aimed at Donetsk.  So it sure looks like the long awaited A2/AA “protective cupola” is being extended over the LDNR.
• That being said, the LDNR forces did break through in at least two directions today, which means that the life left for the Ukie artillery shelling the LDNR will soon come to an end.

But that does not really tell the full story.  So I will try to clarify things a little.

A typical battalion has about 400-600 men, depending on the type.  Let’s also assume that that battalion has 3-4 companies with APCs, a mortar battery, an air defense platoon, an automatic grenade launcher platoon, a signal platoon, supply platoon, and a few smaller more specialized subunits.  If that battalion loses its APCs it has basically lost its most important source of firepower.  If its communications are down (destroyed or jammed), then that battalion cannot operate as part of a bigger force and if its supply routes are cut, then its ability to operate (more or fire) will rapidly dwindle down.  So, on paper this battalion will remain combat capable, but in reality it will have broken up and cannot be considered a truly combat capable battalion anymore.

So, to destroy/incapacitate a battalion only a few precision strikes are needed.  Such strikes though, will leave most of the soldiers alive and quite capable of resistance, but not as a battalion anymore, but more like a typical infantry company or even squads armed with small arms, machine guns, PRG, mines, etc..  They cannot maneuver very much, but they can conduct small hit and run operations against the enemy force.  Which means that specialized infantry/police forces must now be send to find these small forces and deal with them in potentially bloody mopping up operations.

Of course, rather than a few precision strikes, it is much more effective to strike the entire battalion with, say, MLRS strikes which will not only destroy most of the hardware, but which will kill most of the soldiers, especially if they did not prepare and seek cover.  But that means 400-500 dead in one single strike.  That is if this battalion is somewhere in the steppe.  But if it is in downtown Mariupol such a strike will inevitably result in even more scores of dead civilians, especially since the Ukies are very careful to always position their artillery near or even on top of buildings.

Does Russia want that?

Not if there is ANY other option left.

Please keep in mind that Russia has the reconnaissance-fire complexes needed obliterate an entire battalion anywhere in the eastern Ukraine in one single salvo.  They have deliberately NOT done so today (with one possible exception during the very heavy battle for the Gostomel airport, which was taken by Russian special forces and is now secured as a safe bridgehead for Russian Military-Transport aviation right next to Kiev).

Something similar can be seen in urban offensive operations.  It is one thing to get to a city or town’s outskirts, and quite another to penetrate inside the city or town.  If the city is lightly defended by small arms fire, that is one thing, but if the city is well defended, in specially engineered defensive circles, with minefield, IEDs, very strong building used as command posts and if the city’s houses and basements have been prepared by combat engineers, then it is much harder to take.  Again, one option is to send it dedicated urban combat groups while the other is flatten any building which is used by the defenders as a fortress.

The Russian forces have the means to flatten any building anywhere in the Ukraine, including by cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, MLRS with cluster or fuel-air munition or by using howitzers, heavy mortars and even the TOS-1/TOS-1A heavy flamethrower multi-barrel rocket launch systems.

But, again, that can only be done at a major cost in human lives.  Russians won’t hesitate to obliterate some Nazi deathsquads, but to massacre hundreds of regular Ukrainians, irrespective of their personal views, is only and truly a last resort option.

There is a lot of evidence that the Russian forces have moved into the outskirts of many Ukrainian towns, including Kiev, Mariupol and others.  Here is how Russian military practice works:

• First, approach and try to block or surrender the city
• Second, suppress the main enemy firing positions
• Third, make sure that the city is truly blocked (except for a few special corridors, see below)
• Fourth, hold your position and reconnoiter the outermost enemy lines (by fire when appropriate)
• Fifth, send in special reconnaissance groups inside the city to observe and coordinate attacks
• Sixth, once the city is surrounded/blocked and once you get a pretty decent picture of what is inside you take the next decisions which might include any of the following: open corridors for civilians to flee and for military personnel to surrender and cross over, determine the main axes of attack and begin slowly grinding down the opposition with heavy firepower (artillery, air, missiles).
• Seventh, once the city’s defenses have been sufficiently disorganized, begin a house to house mopping up operation by specialized forces.

Before I go further, I want to remind you that during WWII the Soviet Military freed a whopping 1’200 (one thousand two hundred!) cities from the Nazi forces.  Russians know how to do this better than anybody else.

Furthermore, during both Chechen wars, the Russians always managed to take Grozny, which was extremely heavily fortified and defended by some of the toughest fighters on the planet in spite of the fact that at that time the Russian army was it its lowest and badly disorganized, especially during the first Chechen war!  But even in the first Chechen, the Russian did seize Grozny, twice, admittedly a huge cost (on both sides), but they did.

That was almost three decades ago.

Speaking of the Chechen war, in the first one the Russian military lost a big part of an entire brigade which had quickly entered the city, moved into the city center only to find itself surrounded and cut off, with terrible communications, quasi-non existing reconnaissance capabilities.  That debacle left a very painful memory in the Russian collective memory and if somebody was expecting Russian APCs to reach the Mariupol or Kharkov at full speed with flags and screams of “hurrah!” – they don’t understand what is taking place: the (truly criminal) mistake made by Eltin’s generals during that first Chechen war will never be repeated by modern Russian commanders.

Any defeat is always a terrible tragedy, the only and best thing anybody can do after a defeat is to understand why and how it happened, and never repeat such a (criminal) mistake again.

That is the true reason why today Russians stopped on the outskirts of so many cities.

The bottom line is this.  These are things which the Russians are trying to achieve

• Destroy the Ukie armed forces but kill the absolute minimum number of Ukrainian soldiers (real Nazi will probably be destroyed no questions asked).  Why?  Because these surviving Ukrainian soldiers and officers are the ones who will play the main role in finally cleaning the Ukraine from the Nazi scum.
• Get to the outskirts of as many major Ukrainian cities and gradually begin the steps I outlined above.
• Convince civilians to flee and convince Ukrainian solders to lay down arms
• Delay any Russian penetration inside the cities until the moment is “just right” (not too early, not too late)

Why?

Because Russia has ZERO intention of occupying or, even less so, rebuild or police the Ukraine, that’s why.  The LDNR (in its legal borders) is as far as the Russians will go (with only a few possible exceptions).

The Kremlin decided that the goal of the operation was to 1) disarm and 2) to denazify the Ukraine.  As soon as these goals are reached, the Russian want to get the hell out of the Ukraine and back into the LDNR and let the Ukrainians fight their own anti-Nazi civil war.  That means that:

• The Russians now must identify reasonable Ukrainian commanders and/or politicians to negotiate with
• That Russia needs to offer the leftover Ukrainian ground forces the same deal which the Ukrainian forces which were tasked with the control of the Chernobyl nuclear planet were given today by the Russian forces: let’s secure this facility together and keep it secure together, with no combats of any kind.   The Ukrainians gladly accepted, by the way, and now they are jointly patrolling area.
• The Russian might also try something which worked well in Chechnia: tell the local town/city authorities that if they guarantee that not a single bullet will be fire from that town/city not a single Russian bullet will fly back and not a single Russian solider will enter the city, unless accompanied by locals and in order to ascertain the reality of the situation.  But if a city is declared “open and peaceful” and then is used to attack Russian forces, it will be simply flattened with artillery.  I call that the “Shamanov ultimatum” and, after a few false starts (and subsequently flattened towns) it worked very well.

The crucial factor is this: during the two Chechen wars or during 08.08.08 the Russians never saw the local people as their enemy and, if anything, they were hoping that the locals would start their own “housecleaning operation” which was a bad joke in the first Chechen war, but worked very well in the second Chechen war, and failed again during 08.08.08.

In military/combat terms the Ukies are much more similar to the Georgians than to the Chechens, so there is a good chance Russia might have to leave unconditionally and let the locals slug it at between each other for as much as they want (which is what Russia did in 08.08.08 even though Russia Airborne units were at the outskirts of Tbilissi).

Which brings me to THE QUESTION for tomorrow: how will the Ukrainian soldiers and civilians behave?

Right now, Ukrainian losses have been minimal (considering the undeniable fact that this is a fullscale strategic offensive), the Russian forces have reached their positions on the outskirts of many towns and tomorrow or the day after will be “decision time”.

I hope and pray that Russian and Ukrainian soldiers find a common language in as many locations as possible.  Those who will chose a heroic stance (hardcore Nazis mostly) will be offered the possibility to die for their ideas.

In that context, “Ze” released a video in which he offered to negotiate directly and unconditionally, even about neutrality and any other topic.  The Russian reply was simple and to the point:

• Russia is immediately ready to start negotiations after the Armed Forces of Ukraine lay down their arms.
• The Ukraine must be demilitarized and declared neutral.
• The Ukraine must be denazified.
• Russia will no longer allow the Nazis to rule in Ukraine.  Ever.

After that reply, “Ze” and his aides stopped communicating.

I personally doubt that he has any control over anything.  And the fact that a huge amount of weapons has been distributed to whomever wanted one today in Kiev shows that “Ze”‘s handlers have given him the order to make the biggest possible mess and bloodbath before he is evacuated.

This is very sad, and utterly immoral, but there is nothing Russia can do about that: the Ukraine will be flooded by well armed criminals gangs and Nazi insurgents for years to come.

Putin today made a speech in which he suggested that Russia’s beef was only with the Nazis and their deathsquads but that Russia would seek to cooperate with the Ukrainian armed forces (well, what’s left of them, really) should they overthrow the Nazis.  See his full message here.

So, today was “we get to our staging positions” day.

So what did not happen (yet)?

• The operational envelopment of the Ukrainian forces along the LOC with the LDNR forces has not happened yet, there is still a corridor by which these forces can withdraw.  The Russian could have shut it down already “by maneuver by fire” but, apparently, they want to keep it open for a little longer.
• The Russian Black Sea fleet has not engaged in any major combat activities (that I know off, so take that with a grain of salt).

Will that happen tomorrow?  Maybe, it all really depends on whether the regular Ukrainian units will agree to surrender or whether they will fight to their last solider.  It also depends on how the Ukrainian civilians will react at the sight of approaching Russian forces.

So what to look for tomorrow?

• A further penetration of Russian forces deeper inside Ukie territory, with cities bypassed.
• The gradual penetration of Russian forces into blocked/surrounded cities
• The intervention of the Black Sea Fleet in combat operations (with maybe Odessa as a strategic target, not necessarily to take, but at least to threaten and weaken).
• A western false flag (some “Russian atrocity” no doubt)

One more thing:

Western PSYOPs are in “max attack mode” and they are being helped by Russian 5th columnist websites.  For example, I was trying to find a halfway decent map of the combat operations today, and ALL the Russian websites which offered such maps were hardcore 5th element.  Okay, I get it – 5th columnists don’t need any real facts to make their maps, while the real patriots are afraid of both getting it wrong and leaking info.  Still, I remember during the first two wars in the Donbass, there were some pretty decent maps available out there.

Today I see such zero.  If anybody can recommend semi-decent military maps of the combat operations I would be most grateful.

The fact that the Russian 5th column is allowed to continue to operate the way it does really frustrates me.  Could the Kremlin not tell them to “zip it” at least during active combat operations?

I did not even bother checking the output of the 6th column today, I fully expect it to be indistinguishable from the output of the 5th, and so I have no interest in it.

What is certain are two things: the joint efforts 5th and 6th column efforts have had some success, especially in locations where Putin his hated and pro-western views more common than in most of Russia.  The best poll I have seen says “Three-quarters of the respondents rather support the decision of the President of Russia to recognize the independent Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (73%), rather do not support – 16%, and every tenth Russian found it difficult to answer (11%). The majority of Russians – 78% – expressed support for the President’s decision to sign an agreement on friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. Rather, 14% of respondents do not support this decision“.  Putin personal rating is at 67,2%. 

My guesstimate that no more than  5% of Russian support the 5th column and not more than 15% support the 6th column. Toss in another 5-10% which is afraid and on the fence. This is only a guess following my readings of the Russian social media, not a precise figure or even one based on serious research!

Next, the main thesis of US PSYOPs today was “the Russian movement is very slow, much slower than expected” hinting at some formidable Ukrainian defense operations.  I hope that while I did not post any maps today, the above will tell you all you need to know to identify this thesis for what it is: western information operations, nothing more.  The problem is that there is no “smartphone confirmation” of any of that, and by tomorrow I expect the main western PSYOPs thesis to change from “no/slow advance” to “Russian atrocities” (the smartphone coverage for that will, of course, be provided by the western press corps).

So, in conclusion, and once more – the “fog of war” is real, and to read through it takes both time and experience.  By tomorrow, I only expect this “fog of war” (powerfully augmented by PSYOPs) to drown us all in all sorts of nonsense, rumors and wild claims.  Again, please don’t post panicked questions such as “is it true that the Ukrainian forces are already on the Red Square in Moscow” or something equally insipid.

Two quick ones just in, then I need to crash (sorry, I am exhausted).

The US decided to impose personal sanctions personally on Putin (and others) which will result in a full termination of any diplomatic relations (as Russians warned the US many times).  Note: such sanctions are entirely symbolic but maximally offensive, so a full break with Russia is what the US wants.

Twelve thousand Chechens will be sent to the LDNR if needed,  so promised Ramzan Kadyrov, the President of Chechnia.  Actually, I think that this is a very good idea, like in Syria, the Chechens should get involved in policing and public security operations.  FYI – when the “toughest” and “NATO trained and equipped” Georgian brigade heard that the Chechen battalion Vostok was approaching, they all ran abandoning all their fancy (and secret) equipment.  Russia then organized exhibits of all that NATO kit.

Today, the LDNR authorities report the seizure of large Ukie weapons depots including the famous Javelins and NLAWs.  This is all very good news.

I am done for tonight barring some huge event.

I hope to “see you” all tomorrow.

And, again, thanks for all the help (see ADDENDUM in yesterday’s post if you have not yet)!!

You are simply the best 🙂

Andrei

PS: I don’t have the energy to proofread what I wrote, sorry.  I have to prioritize info over form.

Day 2 of the Russian operation in the Ukraine – OPEN THREAD

February 25, 2022

Today is a major day in the Russian military operation.  Why?

Because Russian forces are now on the outskirts of many major Ukrainian cities.  If yesterday was “standoff weapons” day, today is the first day when Russian forces can now begin to degrade Ukrainian artillery dispositions, engage Ukie armor and break through Ukrainian fortifications.  Today is also the last day for US PSYOPs to try to present a counter-narrative (Ukies heroically resisting, Russian dying in huge numbers, effective counter-attacks, etc.).

Yet we live in the smartphone with camera era and picture like this one tell the full story:

What you see in this picture are immense traffic jams of folks fleeing not Mariupol or Kramatorsk, but Kiev, the capital.

Here is a quick machine translated news update from Col. Cassad:

1. LDNR – the positional nature of the fighting remains, with attempts by the LDNR armies to advance to the borders of the territories occupied by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
2. The southern direction – the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation retained control over the bridge over the Dnieper at Kherson, repulsing attempts of counterattacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.. Fighting in the Antonovsky Bridge area continues.
A New Kakhovka is also being held. Melitopol was taken this morning and the advance towards Berdyansk began.
3. Kharkiv direction – fighting continues on the near approaches to Kharkov. Both sides are suffering losses in people and equipment.
4. Sumy direction – the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation took Putivl and passing through Sumy (the battle at the airport continued there today), advanced to Konotop, surrounding the city. Today, attempts to take Akhtyrka continued in order to reach Kharkov from the west. There are Russian roadblocks on the Sumy-Kiev highway. There is an advance to Kiev and Chernihiv. (The APU repelled the attack of the Russian Armed Forces in the Chernihiv direction).
5. Kiev – Gostomel airfield is held by paratroopers. The APU could not dislodge them from there. This morning, tank columns of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation broke through to the near approaches to Kiev and are close to establishing direct communication with the landing. The AFU is preparing a counterattack, stating that another landing will be thrown out in the Gostomel area today. The Pentagon says that Kiev will fall in the coming days. After 10 o’clock shooting was heard in the city. Also, according to the statement of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, the landing was thrown to the west of Zhytomyr. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are actively undermining bridges on the approaches, trying to slow down the advance of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation,
6. In the morning, strikes continued on military facilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine throughout the territory of Ukraine. A Su-27 of the Ukrainian Air Force was shot down over Kiev – according to one version by the Russian air defense system, according to another – by the Ukrainian ones. The downed “Caliber” fell on a residential building in Kiev, but there were no casualties. During the shelling of Gorlovka, a school was hit – 2 teachers were killed.
7. The AFU launched a missile attack on the Millerovo airfield on the territory of the Russian Federation. Damage is reported at the airfield, but there are no losses in aircraft.

I now leave you with an open thread, please try to stick to FACTUAL INFORMATION and please refrain from prophecies about the future or stream of consciousness about the present.

One more thing: today Putin appealed to the Ukrainian soldiers and told them not to let the Banderistas to rule over them, he basically called for them to take power and negotiate with Russia.  Ukie generals need to think hard about what they will do next.

I will try to post an analysis of the day later today.

Andrei

A few disjointed thoughts about the current military situation

February 24, 2022

Source

I parsed some info source and I can offer a few quick reactions to what is taking place.  The operation is bigger than what I had predicted.  However, I STILL don’t believe that Russia wants to invade the Ukraine.

Let’s first see what Russia has already done using ONLY HER STANDOFF WEAPONS:

• The Ukrainian air defenses have ceased to exist
• The Ukrainian air force has ceased to exist
• The Ukrainian navy has ceased to exist
• The Ukrainian command and control are severely disrupted with many command posts destroyed
• All the military airfields in the Ukraine are now not operational
• Numerous supply dumps of ammo, petroleum and lubricants have been destroyed.
• Russia controls the entire Ukie airspace and all the Ukie coastal waters in the Black and Azov seas.

Next, let’s see what LDNR and Russian forces are, apparently, doing right now:

• The LDNR forces have broken through the Ukie defenses in two locations and have penetrated 7-10km behind the LOC.
• These forces advanced with fire support from Russia
• The Ukie forces have built fortifications for 8 years, so the progress against the bulk of the Ukie ground forces is slow.  HOWEVER
• It appears that the Russian have decided to encircle the entire Ukronazi force on the Donbass by a pincer movement from the north and south

It is my opinion that Russia will encircle the Ukie forces, the entire Ukrainian force along the LOC and then wait for them to surrender thereby minimizing losses on both sides.  In other words, the Russians are trying to lock the Ukies in an operational cauldron and basically remove these forces from the equation.

Second, Putin has clearly stated the Russian goals: demilitarize and denazify the Ukraine.

The first element, disarmament, is already well under way.

The denazification implies some kind of regime change.  There are reports of Russian forces near Kiev and I believe that a “hunt for Nazis” will be conducted in one way or another.

Interestingly, the Russians have totally surrounded the city of Kharkov, but have not moved in (yet).  This makes perfect military sense, but it also signals, or so it seems to me, that Russia wants to avoid as much as can be to get involved in offensive combat operations in big cities and also wants to avoid killing civilians. Mind you, the military which could take Grozny in 2000 can *easily* and *quickly* storm any Ukie city (if only because Ukies and Chechens are almost polar opposites in terms of their combat abilities).  But why do through the bother?

When possible, the Russian will surround the Ukie cities, blockade them and wait for the white flags to appear.

Whether that is possible or not I can’t tell, and what will happen to Mariupol next will be interesting: this time, yes, the city shall be liberated, but it will be interesting to see how much resistance the LDNR/Russian forces will encounter.

BTW – does anybody now about any webcams/geocams for Mariupol?

Intermediate conclusions:

Basically, this 08.08.08 on a much larger scale: move in, disarm, withdraw.

My guesses (not more, it is waaaay too early to tell!) is that:

• The Ukie forces along the LOC will be surrounded and neutralized.  Once that goal in achieved, most of the Ukrainian ground threat will simply disappear.  True Nazis will be shot, the rest disarmed and sent home.  Their weapons will go to the LDNR.
• LDNR and Russia forces will advance deep inside the Ukraine, but only to execute specific missions, after which they will be pulled back to the legal border of the LDNR (with a few exception possible for specific, local reasons).
• The Ukronazi leadership will run away and Kabul like scenes are possible.  Some will be caught.

The Nazi regime in Kiev will be regime changed to some other regime which will accept a Russian ceasefire and the opening of direct negotiations with both the LDNR and Russia.  Eventually, a general ceasefire will be proclaimed.

I still think that a NATO (Polish?) ground operation into the Lvov and Ivano-Frankovsk regions is likely.  Officially to “protect our allies and friends” but in reality with two goals:

• Save face
• Establish a mini-Banderastan under Polish control in western Ukraine
• Feed the hyena of Europe

The Kremlin might think otherwise, but I don’t have a problem with that as long as a semi-civilized and semi-sane regime is put in power in Kiev.

There will be elections, of course, which nobody in the West will initially recognize.  That’s fine.  Nobody in Russia cares about Uncle Shmuel or his Eurorodents.

Now Biden (I forced myself to listen to him, again!) is aping Obama and promises that sanctions from hell will cripple Russia.  Bernhard, at Moon of Alabama, made an interesting comment today: “The Russian stock market is down but gold, oil and gas are up and Russia has so far lost zero money“.  I am sure that he is correct.

And, yes, in the short to mid term, sanctions will also have some negative effects on some sectors of the Russian economy.  However, in the mid to long term I think that energy costs will provide Russia with a real windfall of money.  At the Russian SC meeting, Mishustin appeared to be fully relaxed, focused and calm.

Besides, as I mentioned yesterday, the recent surge in energy prices over the past month have already refunded Russia all the money invested into NS2, and that is BEFORE the (inevitably upcoming) lawsuits against Germany 🙂

In a recent post I “recognized” both President Biden and Chancellor Scholtz for doing everything in their power to force Russia to intervene.

Today I want to recognize the truly immense contribution of “Ze” himself, and the Nazi nutcases around him.  He was the first to mention that Banderastan wanted to acquire nuclear weapons.  The Nazi nutcases in the Ukie regime and social media immediately picked up this truly “brilliant” idea.

I want to sincerely thank “Ze” specifically for:

• Forcing the Russian to intervene (Nazi and nukes are a bad combo in any Russian’s mind!)
• Giving them a legal basis to do so under Art. 51 of the UN Charter

Frankly, “Ze” did a lot for Russia, and I think that Putin should let him flee to the West.  But the one guy I want to see in handcuffs and tried in Odessa is Aleksei Goncharenko.

Yeah, I did say in Odessa, didn’t I?

Which brings me to one more possibility: Russia cannot leave the Ukie Black Sea coast under any kind of Nazi or pro-NATO control.  Hopefully, the next regime in power in Kiev can deal with that, and Russia can help if needed.  But if not, I think that the Black Sea Fleet might have to conduct the operations needed to make sure that no part of the Black Sea coast is ever used to threaten Russia again.

I would MUCH prefer if the Ukrainian people themselves cleaned their own house.  But if they can’t, then, okay, Russia can help as long as her intervention is temporary.

In fact, I would categorically oppose any longterm Russian intervention in the Ukraine beyond the LDNR.  I don’t think that it will happen anyway.  But a short term denazification operation might be unavoidable and I accept that.

Putin had no good option left.  Russia, as a nation, had no good options left.  So they chose the “least bad option” possible.  So far, I like what I see very much.

But while the initial standoff strikes are now mostly over, it will take time to liberate, disarm and stabilize the LDNR and the Ukrainian territories adjacent to it.

Also, I can’t imagine the CIA/MI6/Bellincat/CNN and the rest of them not executing at least ONE major false flag of some kind.  Not because that will change anything, but because that is what they are (kinda) good at.

Last, and very deliberately least, its over for the EU.  The EU was always a US colony, but now it will sink to a new low with Europeans losing any remnants, however tiny, of self-respect they might have retained.  From now on, the EU is Uncle Shmuel’s punkass bitch (forgive the profanity, but that is what fits best in my opinion).  All I can say about that is this: those who have no self-respect cannot expect to be respected by others.

That’s it on my end.

Your turn now.

Cheers

Andrei

The situation is about to quickly escalate, probably in the next days

February 23, 2022

Today, I want to begin with a small allegorical story.

One upon a time, there was a bear sleeping in his lair and minding his business.  One day, a small group of rodents decided to have some fun time pestering the bear.  So they began running around, making a lot of noise (some even dared the bear to come out and fight them) and even threw colorful little pebbles at the bear.  The bear mostly ignored them hoping they would eventually tire from that silly behavior and go away.  But the rodents not only stayed, they began pelting the bear with even more pebbles and, sure enough, what had to happen happened: one pebble (with “ridiculous genocide claim” written on it) landed right on the eyelid of the bear and that *really* pissed the bear off.  He finally got up, moved to the entrance of his lair and looked at the scurrying rodents.  The bear wondered, what shall he do with these little rodents next?  The rodents wondered about the same thing.  And so they told the bear that if he dares leave his lair, they will pelt him with even more pebbles, so he better not move.  What do you think the bear will do next?

***

Yesterday Putin gave a quite amazing (and short) press conference.  Not only did he declare that Russia recognizes the LDNR Republics in their own, legal, borders (i.e. the full Donetsk and Lugansk regions), he also listed the four steps needed to be taken by the Ukraine to avoid a direct, unilateral, Russian action:

• The Ukraine must recognize Crimea and Sevastopol as Russian territory
• The Ukraine must officially renounce joining NATO
• The Ukraine must negotiate a settlement with the LDNR Republics
• The Ukraine must be demilitarized and declared neutral

This is clearly an ultimatum, but this time, to the authorities in Kiev.

Now a few simple comments:

Since Russia has recognized the LDNR in their original, administrative, regional borders, this means that all the Ukie forces between the current Line of Contact (LOC) and the borders between the original borders of the LDNR and the rest of the Ukraine are now de facto and de jure a foreign occupying force on the territory of a Russian ally which Russia promised to protect.

Just ponder the implications of that for a while, let it sink in: until yesterday, the Ukronazi forces were on their own territory, at least legally speaking.  Now they are abroad and unwelcome.

Quite logically, several DNR and LNR officials have now demanded that Kiev withdraw these forces completely from the LDNR territory.  As a small carrot, LDNR officials have said that if the Ukies retreat voluntarily there will be no further action taken.  Conversely, that means that if the Ukies stay, the LDNR will do what is needed to make them leave.

That is an LDNR ultimatum to Kiev.

In plain English this means this:

• Putin has demanded that the Ukronazi forces immediately stop their attacks
• The LDNR has demanded that the Ukronazi forces immediately withdraw from all the territories the LDNR claims, and Russia recognizes, as belonging to the LDNR

Some LDNR official have offered this: stop the shelling, move at least your heavy force away from the LOC as you are supposed to under the ceasefire agreements and we won’t move our forces in.  In other words, if the Ukies move out, the LDNR forces will stay out, but the territory vacated by the Ukies will become legally LDNR’s.

Since there is exactly zero chance that the Nazis in Kiev will accept, what does that tell you about the next move by the LDNR and, possibly, Russia?

Does anybody still seriously believe that Putin is bluffing?

In Russia, Medvedev has made a quite remarkable “patriotic comeback” with some very good words at the meeting of the Russian Security Council.  He also posted this quite mocking tweet after Olaf decided to declare that NS2 would not be certified “now” (whatever that means).  Olaf is already starting to backpedal and make ambiguous statements about the long term future of NS2.

And, the beauty of the current dynamics, is that the Germans are doing it to themselves (and to the rest of the EU) while Russia STILL has not used the “energy weapon” against anybody.  So Russia cannot be accused of using energy as a weapon or reneging on her obligations!

Russia is offering cheap gas to Germany and the rest of the EU.  But if the latter want to please Uncle Shmuel so badly that they are willing to wreck their own economies – by all means, Russia fulfilled her obligation and it sure ain’t her fault that the Germans are now ( at least pretending to) renege on their part of the deal.

If the Europeans want to turn up the pain dial upon themselves, Russia sure won’t object.

And did I mention that the recent increase in energy prices has yielded such a profit for Gazprom, that it has already paid for the Russian investment in NS2!  If the Germans really pull out of the deal, there will be huge lawsuits which will make the Germans pay even more.  Finally, with the energy prices going up again, Gazprom is making billions of dollars of extra revenue.

As for the USA – the likely increase in the costs of energy (oil and gas) will provide an even further boost to the already very high inflation.  But does “Biden” care?

Nope.  “Biden” is so drunk on his ideological delusions that he rather accept an even worse inflation if that can hurt Russia (which it won’t, but nevermind that).  That his sanctions won’t really hurt Russia is entirely irrelevant, in Zone A all that matters is make believe and verbiage.  Facts don’t matter one bit.

I have been saying it for a long while already: there is no “US policy” left, all that’s left is chaos, corruption, gross incompetence, maniacal delusion of still being the planet’s Sheriff combined with a rather comical belief that the US can scare Russia into submission.

Joe, in Russia’s long history much stronger leaders than you have already tried that.  Do you want to end like them?

Apparently yes!

In fact, the US has announced that there will be no Putin Biden meeting and no Lavrov Blinken meeting either.  I am sure that both Putin and Lavrov are sobbing in abject fear and total despair…

There is a good chance that all this will end up with a full severance of diplomatic relations between Russia and the USA (along with a few EU Tabakis à la UK).

Furthermore, to show the “determination of the US led free West” the US is sending a few hundred extra troops to the Latvia. And some helicopters from Italy to Poland.  And if that was not terrifying enough, Canada’s Trudeau is also sending a few hundred extra Canadian troops to the Baltics.

At this pace, in a few weeks NATO might have a “combined regiment” safely tucked away somewhere in Poland or the Baltics, while knowing full well that Russia will never use any force against the 3B simply because Russia has exactly zero interest in, or desire for, them or their lands.

In fact, these statlets are as much in freefall as Banderastan, why should Russia want them?  As for Poland, the more neutral ground between them and Russia, the better for Russia.  In history both Russia and Germany have tried to manage Poland, now it is the time for the USA to give it a shot.  I wish both the Poles and the US Americans a lot of fun – amusez-vous bien! (though it is still better to have to administer the Polish colony than the Ukie one.

The truth is that even if all the Ukraine’s neighbors simply and magically were allowed to take all the Ukrainian territory they want, a lot would be left unclaimed (most of the central and northern part).

That how bad a shithole country 404 has become…  Maybe somebody will just fence them in and feed them like in a zoo?

Does anybody seriously believe that Russia will be impressed by any of that ridiculous nonsense?

Until the time of writing this, the Ukronazis have continued shelling and shooting, but there has been no fullscale ground attack (yet!).  The Ukie special services have sent a few diversionary groups into the LDNR and even into a small strip of Russian land.  These groups were detected and intercepted by the Russian Border Guards.  The Ukies tried to send a BMP few infantry fighting vehicle to rescue their soliders only to have them destroyed by the Russian military’s anti-tank weapons.

Today the Ukies continued to direct their artillery attacks and diversionary groups at the LDNR.  Water and electricity are off in some parts of the LDNR.  People are still dying every day and there is no signs of the Ukie bombardments abating.  Especially violent combats are taking place near the town of Nikolaevka.

The Ukies have also declared a state of emergency (to be approved by the Rada) and are now making more and more noises about re-arming themselves with nuclear weapons.  Smart move when Putin says that the Ukraine must be disarmed 🙂

Ukronazi war criminals

By the way, the Russian Investigative Committee has declared that Russia knows, by name, all the folks who on the Ukie side gave orders to shell the LDNR.  There are already over 400 criminal cases opened for warcrimes, including 85 top Ukronazi officials, beginning with Turchinov and his military commanders Galetei and Gritsenko, Arsen Avakov and their deputies Shevchuk, Dublian and Gerashchenko.  The notorious ZioNazi oligarch Igor Kolomoiskii, the commanders of the Ukie air force and navy (or whatever is left of them by now), the Chief of the Ukie Airborne forces, the Commander of Ukie Special Forces, the main Urkonazi Dmitrii Iarosh and many many more Ukronazis are also on that list.

Frankly, I think that the Ukies are terrified.

I know I sure would if I was in their place.

They cannot simply retreat, there is no way Ze can order that and not be overthrown.

They cannot attack because now it is too late, all these force comparisons between the Banderastani forces and the LDNR forces have become, if not irrelevant, than at least a lot less relevant now that Putin has basically prepared both the military and the legal conditions necessary for any kind of Russian military operation, from strikes with standoff weapons, to a ground and/or amphibious assault.  All he has to do now is say “go”.  Judging by his tone yesterday, not only do I feel that he is willing to give that order, but I also think that he has accepted that this is the “least bad” option for Russia and the LDNR.

Again, Putin said that he fully intends to disarm the Ukraine, at least from all her heavy weapons.  Since the Ukies won’t give them up, I see only one way to achieve this: disarm them by force.

So, in one way or another, I expect major combat action in the Eastern Ukraine in the next couple of days.

Keep in mind that the West’s response to Putin’s words and actions only serve to further convince Russia that 1) more sanctions and subversion is inevitable 2) violence is unavoidable.

Remember these famous words by Putin: “Fifty years ago, the streets of Leningrad taught me one thing: If a fight’s inevitable, you must strike first“?

It appears to me that the Kremlin has concluded that a violent fight is, indeed, inevitable.  You figure out the rest 🙂

In other news, Putin and Aliev have just signed a major cooperation treaty between Russia and Azerbaijan.

Yes, Aliev decided to travel to Moscow and meet Putin on the day Russia officially recognized the LDNR.  It is a very smart move by both of these politicians.  First, Aliev needs to show Turkey that yes, we are friends and allies, but I will balance that with my friendship and alliance with Russia.  Erdogan might be a crazy megalomaniac, but he ain’t stupid and he sure did get that message.

After all, who said that Erdogan must be the leader of the Turkic world?

I am pretty sure that Russia (and China!) would very much prefer Aliev for a very long list of reasons, including the fact that he is very smart, very realistic, quite ruthless when needed and he understand Putin very well (the two are good friends).  And since Erdogan is trying to play both the Russian and the Ukie card, here is a clear warning to him, be nice, or else…

So where do we go from here?

I would say that major combat operations against the Ukie forces in the LDNR republics are probably inevitable and, barring some last minute miracle, the Russians will soon disarm a good part of the Ukie forces.  Remember that Putin specifically added the disarmament of the Ukraine as one of his demands.

Does anybody think that anybody can stop the disarmament (we are talking about major weapon systems, not AKs) of the Ukraine by Russia in the near/middle term?

I don’t.

Next, I think that Putin will successfully impose all his demands upon the Ukraine, which means two things:

• The Kiev regime will collapse, at least de facto
• The rest of Banderastan will eventually break-up into different regimes and successor states

I think that there is a high probability that the US/NATO will move some forces into western Ukraine, to “protect their people and infrastructure” in and around Lvov, and to declare that “their show of unity and determination stopped Russia from invading the entire Ukraine”.  I don’t think that Russia will object too much against any NATO move inside and limited to the Lvov/Ivano-Frankovsk region.  These are not historically Russian lands and they are basically irrelevant to Russia.

If the US wants to Poles to oppress the Ukronazis in their own western Ukraine, nobody in Russia will care.

As for the West, to take credit for a defeat is a long US/NATO tradition, so such an operation can be used to save NATO’s face.

But that won’t be enough.

The West has already been beaten politically, and now a military defeat of some kind is probably inevitable.

I am not talking about an invasion of the entire Ukraine (God forbid!) but it will be clear to all that the Russian bear forced NATO to retreat, politically and militarily.  The Anglos are too smart to volunteer for a war with Russia.  The Polaks are, as always, only hiding behind the backs of their latest (Anglo) masters.  The Balts are irrelevant.

So the only option is to fight the Russians down the the last Ukrainian and when that happens, it might not be an “NATO defeat” legally speaking, but like on 08.08.08 it will be a crushing defeat for NATO publicly.  Maybe not as bad as Kabul, but much worse than Georgia in 08.08.08.

At that point, a lot of folks will be wondering if NATO is worth the money spent on.  And once that process begins, there will be no stopping it.

Good!

If the US/NATO/EU had any brains, they would quickly accept the total and final loss of the LDNR, following by a declaration that the Ukraine has become a neutral, demilitarized, state. In exchange for that, Russia would provide firm security guarantees and cheap energy.  But that would be common sense, not exactly the kind of mindset which brought us to today’s crisis.

So let’s see what Uncle Shmuel and his Eurorodents will do next.

My expectation is more hot air from the West and more unilateral Russian actions in the East.

Stay tuned.

Andrei

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Russia’s Security Council Recommends To Recognize The Donbas Republics

February 21, 2022

Updated (again) below
—

The Russian National Security Council has been meeting today to discuss the recognition of the Donetzk People’s Republic (DNR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) as independent states.

The whole meeting was shown on public TV. RT-English provided a live translation. The purpose of the show was to present Russia’s arguments to an international public.

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Last week the Russian parliament submitted a resolution which asked the president of Russia to recognize the DNR and LNR. Earlier today the leaders of the DNR and LNR made a formal official request to recognize their republics.

The security council heard the opinions of the prime minister, foreign minister and defense minister. The leaders of parliament and of the security services also spoke.

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The military reported that earlier today a group of Ukrainian saboteurs had tried to cross onto Russian ground but was prevent from doing so. A published video of the incident showed two burning BMP infantry fighting vehicles. Russia says that five of the intruders have been killed and one of them has been arrested.

Defense minister Shoigu reported that there are some 60,000 Ukrainian soldiers at the border of the DNR and LNR together with more than 500 tanks and lots of artillery. He also pointed out that the Ukrainian president Zelensky had announced that the Ukraine would leave the Budapest agreement and start to build nuclear bombs. He said the Ukraine has the knowledge and means to do that and called the move  extremely dangerous.

It was pointed out that recent artillery attacks had destroyed part of the water supply for Donetzk and that the destruction of a pipeline left many people without gas. This is seen as an emergency situation. Some 70,000 refugees have been received in Russia.

Several members of the security council pointed out that some 700,000 of the 4.6 million inhabitants of the rebellious Donbas region already have a Russian passport, some 500,000 more have applied for one. These are formal Russian citizens which Russia must protect from harm.

All members were of the opinion that the current situation needs a new solution. The Ukrainian government is obviously unwilling to fulfill the Minsk agreements by giving more autonomy to its Donbas region. It is instead trying to regain the region by war.

All were of the opinion that the republics should therefore be recognized. The head of Russia’s foreign intelligence service, Sergey Naryshkin, said the the republics should be integrated into Russia. Putin told him that such a step was not under discussion.

After hearing all opinions Putin said that he would make the decision later today.

What would it mean if Russia recognizes the DNR and LNR as sovereign states? For one – the Minsk agreement, which the Ukraine does not want to implement anyway, would be null and void.

What other steps would follow was not discussed but there are certain possibilities.

The DNR and LNR could ask for a common defense agreement with the Russian Federation. The Russian military could then move into the DNR and LNR.

Neither the DNR nor the LNR incorporate all land that defines the formal administrative Donetzk and Luhansk regions of the Ukraine. The republics, with Russia’S help, could try to extend the border of DNR and LNR to the original administrative borders of those regions. That probably would mean a war which I still find unlikely to happen.

The economic integration of the DNR and LNR into Russia’s economy should be no problem. Both regions are rather rich with minerals like anthracite coal. Both have large industrial installations and a well educated Russian speaking public.

An open question is what the ‘west’ would do if Russia recognizes the republics.

The national security council is expecting more sanctions but several members shrugged them off. They said that sanctions would be imposed anyway no matter what Russia does or does not do. They expect that in the long term the sanctions will increase Russia’s autonomy and expand its economy. The sanctions are also expected to erode over time as Russia offers desirable products and is in itself a large market.

I find it unlikely that the ‘west’ would impose all sanctions it has prepared in response to Russia’s move today. It would the expense of all economic ammunition that can be used against Russia. As Russia still could take more serious action some sanctions must be held back for that eventuality.

Later today Russia’s president Vladimir Putin will give a televised speech to announce his decision.

I will update this post when it is known.

Update:

Maxim A. Suchkov @m_suchkov – 18:11 UTC · Feb 21, 2022

⚡#Putin has just had phone calls with @OlafScholz & @EmmanuelMacron. #Kremlin says #Russian president “briefed both leaders on the results of Security Council gathering & told them he is going to respective order [apparently on recognition of LNR/DNR].

Update 18:28 UTC:

The above tweet has now been confirmed by an official Kremlin statement about the phone call (machine translation):

Vladimir Putin had telephone conversations with President of the French Republic Emmanuel Macron and Federal Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany Olaf Scholz.

Vladimir Putin informed about the results of the expanded meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, which considered the current situation around Donbass in the context of the State Duma’s decision on the recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. Today, the leadership of the DPR and LPR received appeals to recognize their sovereignty in connection with the military aggression of the Ukrainian authorities, massive shelling of the territory of Donbass, as a result of which the civilian population suffers.

With all this in mind, the President of Russia said that he intended to sign a relevant decree in the near future.

The President of France and the Federal Chancellor of Germany expressed their disappointment with this development. At the same time, they indicated their readiness to continue contacts.

Update 19:42 UTC:

It has happened. After a TV speech on the development of the Ukraine since the begin of Soviet communism and after laying out the list of Russian grievances with western aggression Putin signed the official recognition of the Donbas republics as independent states. There are now also cooperation agreements on defense and other issues signed by Putin as well as the heads of the Donbas republics.

If the Ukraine continues its war on Donbas Russia will respond with force.

What are Putin and Macron up to?

February 20, 2022

This is the big RT headline: Putin and Macron agree on measures to halt escalation in Ukraine.

Here is a machine translation of the official French statement:

Telephone interview with Vladimir PUTIN, President of the Russian Federation.

The President of the Republic held a telephone conversation with the President of the Russian Federation, Mr. Vladimir PUTIN, on Sunday, February 20.

They agreed on the following points :

– the resumption of work under the Normandy format on the basis of exchanges and proposals made by Ukraine in recent days.

– intensive work to allow the holding of a trilateral contact group meeting in the coming hours with the objective of obtaining from all stakeholders a ceasefire commitment on the line of contact.

– the need to give priority to a diplomatic solution to the current crisis and to do everything possible to achieve it. For this, intensive diplomatic work will be conducted in the coming days and weeks. The Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs, Mr. Jean-Yves LE DRIAN, will meet with his counterpart Mr. LAVROV in the coming days and several consultations will be held in Paris to this effect.

– this diplomatic work should make it possible to make progress on the basis of the latest exchanges by involving all stakeholders (Europeans, allies, Russians and Ukrainians) in order to lead, if the conditions are met, to a meeting at the highest level with a view to defining a new order of peace and security in Europe.

– in order to conduct this work in serious conditions, the two Heads of State made firm commitments to take all necessary actions to avoid escalation, reduce risks and preserve peace.

So what is going on here?

First, the obvious: Macron wants to win the upcoming presidential election in France and being the “savior of Europe” would give him something to brag about.

Second, the no less obvious: Macron is trying to bypass his Anglo “partners” since neither the US nor the UK want anything short of an open Russian military intervention in the Ukraine.  Notice the words “all stakeholders (Europeans, allies, Russians and Ukrainians)” which mentions neither the US nor the UK ( here “allies” is just an empty but politically correct placeholder term).

Third, and that is obvious too: the Anglos don’t give a damn about Macron or his plans.

Which all begs the question: why does Putin even bother?

The answer, however, points to a different kind logic on the Russian side.

First, Putin and Lavrov have as a policy to talk to (almost) everybody (“Ze” being the current exception).  This is the Russian way of diplomacy: talk to countries that are each other’s mortal enemies, like Israel and Iran and talk to non-entities like Scholz or Truss.  The Kremlin does not care how hard Lavrov or Putin need to “hold their mental noses” when talking to dishonorable, cowardly, liars if that gets them some tangible benefit (more about that in a sec).

And the Russians will always do everything in their power to avoid war, small or big.

Folks in the West are used to “western diplomacy” in which you only talk (i.e. “give orders”) to your colonies, never talk to your opponents (who are always demonized) and where NOT negotiating is seen as a sign of “strength”.

In Russia not negotiating as a principle is seen as simply stupid and counter-productive.

Furthermore, while Macron clearly wants to repeat the “feat” of Zarkozy who claimed (falsely!) to have stopped the 08.08.08 war, the Russians see another very tangible benefit of talking to Macron: creating even more divisions in the West as a whole and in Europe specifically.

Consider this: the Russian ultimatum has already had a lot of highly positive effects:

• The US/NATO, after years of totally ignoring Russia, are not only willing to talk to the Kremlin, they are even picking up past Russian proposals and presenting them as their own.
• Europe is afraid, very afraid.  Not only of a major war with all that implies (including waves of refugees), but also from an energetic/economic collapse in case the US/UK prevail.
• The Ukros in power have suddenly realized that they might be targeted.  Personally.  Hence the flight of Ukie oligarchs to the EU and “Ze” “trip to Europe to participate in the Munich conference”.
• The Chinese now see that Russia is committed (I will clarify to what exactly below) and are throwing their considerable weight behind Russia.

You could use a Russian expression and say that Putin stuck a big stick in the West’s “anthill” and the said ants are now running around like crazy.

In that one single move, Russia achieved more than over several decades and, so far, she achieved that at a truly small price.

Having said that, I need to repeat something crucial here:

==>>This is NOT, repeat, NOT about the LDNR or even the Ukraine.<<==

Russia (and China!) wants a different multi-polar world order, one based on the full sovereignty of all countries, one in which international law serves as the basis for relations between sovereign states, one in which security is always defined and understood as collective security and one in which the United Nations remain the sole top authority to enforce the rules of international law.

The Kremlin often says that it wants a new security arrangement in Europe.  And that is true.  But, let’s not be naive here, the US domination over its European colonies is the cornerstone of Anglo world domination, so if the US/UK “lose” Europe, they will be finished as wannabe world hegemons.

The Russians and the Chinese are now leading the entire Zone B towards this goal by a careful mix of unilateral policies including the gradual de-dollarization of Eurasia and the energy markets, military pressure on the US and its colonies and by developing their REAL economies (as opposed to the West’s FIRE economies).

Okay, but what does that mean in practice?

That is too early to tell.

First, let’s see what, if anything, comes out of the French initiative.

Second, Macron’s initiatives will have zero impact on the LOC in the LDNR were exchanges of fire are constantly taking place but where, at least so far, the Ukies did not launch a ground assault across the LOC.  But they might, literally any second now, both sides are fully prepared for such an event.

Then there is the very real risk of a major false flag event organized by the Anglos.  The entire AngloZionist propaganda machine is now poised to instantly “pick up” such a false flag and blame it all on Russia.  I don’t see how Macron could do anything about that, even assuming he wanted to in the first place.

So let’s not jump to conclusions and see what happens next week with both Macron and Blinken.

In the meantime, the Ukies are trying to scare the planets with rumors about them ditching their non-nuclear status and develop nukes.  Please do not worry about that, at most what the Ukies can do is make a “dirty bomb”, but they exactly *zero* change to ever acquire real nukes (and, besides, if such a risk was even remotely real, Russia would take any and all actions to eliminate any such possibility).

The Ukies also sent a diversionary group into the LDNR but the local state security quickly intercepted them: 1 Ukie dead, one taken prisoner.  Two lightly wounded in the LDNR special forces.  Below is the video of that anti-terrorist operation.

Andrei

• Mr Putin’s telephone conversation with President of France Emmanuel Macron

Donbass war – quick update

February 19, 2022

The intelligence service of the Donetsk People’s Republic have released the following map and claim that this is the Ukrainian plan of attack against the LDNR:

The Colonel Cassad website has posted a summary of what this plan includes.
Here is a machine translation of this text:

The secret service intelligence of the People’s Militia of the DPR has obtained a plan for a Ukrainian offensive operation against Independent Republics, which we announced earlier.

This plan of the AFU offensive operation in the Donbas was developed by the Ukrainian General Staff and approved by the decision of the NSDC in early February this year.

The purpose of the Ukrainian offensive operation is to “clean up” the territory of the People’s Republics from the Russian-speaking population, squeezing it into the territory of Russia, gaining control over the entire territory of the People’s Republics.

In accordance with the plan of the General Staff, almost all combat-ready formations and military units are involved in the offensive operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbas. A strike group of Ukrainian troops has already been created for aggression.

Up to FIVE days are allocated for the operation.

According to the plan of the Ukrainian strategists, on the appointed D-Day, it is planned to destroy military and civilian objects on the territory of the DPR and LPR to a depth of 10-15 km by carrying out a massive fire attack by rocket and barrel artillery of the 26, 43 and 55 artillery brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, by striking aircraft, helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles.

The main targets for destruction are identified – command posts of the People’s Militia, civil administrations, critical infrastructure facilities of the Republics, energy and water supply, storage sites of heavy weapons defined by the Minsk Agreements.

The APU offensive is planned from three directions.

The direction of the main strike of the Ukrainian army is KRAMATORSK – DEBALTSEVE.

The strike is carried out by the forces of 30 mechanized, 17 tank and 95 airborne assault brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the support of 26 artillery brigade. The immediate task is to reach the ALCHEVSK –YENAKIYEVO border within THREE days. The further task of the grouping is to reach the border of the Russian Federation within TWO days.

With the fulfillment of the immediate task, 81 airmobile and 25 airborne brigades are planned to enter the battle for the development of the offensive.

In the Azov direction, the forces of 53 mechanized and 36 marine brigades, from the Shirokino – STAROGNATOVKA line, as well as the 501 separate Marine infantry battalion from the area of NOVOAZOVSK, with the support of the 55 artillery brigade, are planned to advance in the direction of Komsomolsk and within TWO days reach the ILOVAYSK–ULYANOVSK line, thereby fulfilling the immediate task. Further develop the offensive along the border of the Russian Federation in the direction of Krasny Luch.

The units of the 12th operational brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine will operate in the second echelon of the operational tactical group “South”.

The Aidar battalion, operating in the area of responsibility of the 53rd brigade, has the task of preventing desertion among Ukrainian soldiers.

In the Luhansk direction, it is planned to conduct limited offensive operations by the forces of 57 motorized infantry and 24 mechanized brigades, with the support of 131 separate reconnaissance units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the NOVOTOSHKOVSKOYE – POPASNAYA line in the direction of the locality of ALCHEVSK. Having blocked the Lugansk-DEBALTSEVE highway “M-30”, the operational-tactical grouping “North” should develop an offensive into the depth of the defense of the LPR in order to reach the locality of KRASNY LUCH and connect with the grouping “South”.

During the fighting, it is planned to encircle and block large settlements of DONETSK, LUGANSK, Gorlovka and ALCHEVSK.

The units of the “Right Sector” stationed in the areas of the localities of STANITSA-Luganskaya and HAPPINESS should carry out disturbing fire on the positions of the NM, support the raid and sabotage actions of the 79 brigade.

Up to 25 mobile special purpose groups of the special operations forces “West” and “East” are dispersed along the entire line of combat contact in order to shackle transport highways near the line of combat contact, conduct terrorist acts and sabotage.

The “sleeping” cells of the SBU on the territory of the Republics should carry out sabotage on highways in the depths of the territory of the republics, the liquidation and abduction of individual officials from the leadership of the republics.

Boriz Rozhin (aka Colonel Cassad) added the following commentary:

The People’s Militia of the DPR is ready to repel aggression, all military units have been put on full alert and have begun to mobilize. Interaction with the command of the People’s Militia of the Luhansk Republic is constantly maintained.

The enemy’s plans will be smashed against the defense of the defenders of the Republics. In the case of Ukrainian aggression, enemy losses will exceed the scale of failed operations in 2014-2015.

My personal commentary would be this:

This plan lacks any kind of originality, except maybe the goofy ideas of using airborne, air-assault and even amphibious forces in a location where the Russian side will have very robust A2/AA means and air supremacy.  The rest is simple: try to cut off the DNR from the LNR and the DNR from the Russian border.  Characteristically, the Ukies will throw in everything they have from the get go.  I don’t believe that anybody on the Ukronazi side seriously believes that this will work.  However, this will guarantee a major bloodbath and unless the LDNR forces are capable of slowing down the Ukie attack to the point where it becomes obviously futile, this will force Russia to intervene.  Considering that the Ukies do not seem to have planned for a defense in depth anywhere along the LOC and considering the relatively short LOC (about 200km) and compact nature of the Ukie concentration of forces, I would personally be very tempted to look into enveloping the entire Ukie force by a pincer movement of Russian forces from the northeast and from the south, especially if the LDNR forces succeed in “pinning down” the Ukie attack.

In the past wars we have seen tactical “cauldrons” – maybe this time we will see an operational one?

If successful, such an operational envelopment will basically disarm the bulk of the Ukie military.  And since they love the Nazis so much, they will have the consolation to know that their end will be a “mini version” of what happened to the Nazis in Stalingrad.

Furthermore, there used to be a US military concept called FOFA (follow on forces attack) which instead of focusing on the attacking forces (at that time, the Soviet military) would focus on destroying 2nd echelon forces to prevent them from developing the 1st echelon attack and to disrupt the supply lines.  Using such a FOFA would also create the conditions for an operational envelopment.

Also, I should mention that even if the Ukies did prepare some kind of defense in depth, which they really should have, then another option for the Russians would be to inject a tactical maneuver group (probably one specially configured and reinforced battalion tactical group) behind the Ukie attacking forces.  That will create chaos in the Ukie disposition and force Ukie commanders to allocate forces to deal with this threat.

Conclusion: my money is on the LDNR holding the line or, at least, slowing down the Ukie offensive which is entirely predicated on a rather rapid penetration of the LDNR along one major, two secondary and one minor axes of attack.  If the LDNR forces cannot hold the attack, then Russia will have to engage her CAS, artillery and missile attacks to assist the retreating LDNR forces.  As for the Black Sea Fleet, it can offer both fire support and the option of an amphibious landing.  Even the threat of an amphibious landing near Mariupol could paralyze the southernmost Ukronazi axis of attack.  Finally, unless the Ukie attack is a quickly achieved and stunning success (the probability of which is close to zero), the Ukie morale will collapse as soon as their soldiers realize that 1) the tempo of advance has been stalled and 2) Ukronazis soldiers are dying in huge numbers (way more than in the first Ukie wars against the Donbass).

***

In other news

• Both LDNR republics have now decreed a full mobilization.
• Russian MiG-31K armed with Kinzhal hypersonic missiles have flown over the eastern Mediterranean.
• Top US officials (Harris, Austin, Pelosi etc.) are all in Europe.

On a different note, the glorious USA has inflicted a crushing defeat on the skating Snow Niggers from Mordor:

Oh sure, the Snow Niggers still got 3 out of 4 top positions, but at least the land of the free and the home of the brave made a 15 year old girl sob in disgust.

As the New York Post piously thanks God for this glorious victory, we can all appreciate the legendary sense of “Anglo fair play” and the “Olympic spirit”: maybe we don’t have what it takes to taken on their military, but we can still defeat a Snow Nigger on ice, that God for WADA and the IOC too!

And, in the meantime, here is a lesson in “democracy and freedom” by Trudeau’s goons:

Russian options in the LDNR – my personal take

February 18, 2022

Okay, this will be a short bulletpoint reminder of how I see the Russian position and options in response to the Ukronazis attack.

First, a few key assumptions:

• Russia does not want to invade/liberate the Ukraine
• Russia would prefer not to get openly involved in the LDNR
• The best outcome for Russia would be for the LDNR to be able to hold without overt Russian support
• Throughout this entire battle, Russia will always prefer to do less than to do more.

Next, here is a summary of how I expect Russia to act in the next couple of days:

Event	Consequence	Russian option
Ukronazi shelling but not ground attack	Civilian casualties and infrastructure destruction	Let the LDNR handle it while reporting about this at home
Ukronazis attempt to move ground forces across the LOC	Risk to the LDNR defenses	Ideally, Russia would only use “indirect” means such as counter-battery fire, strikes on advancing Ukronazi forces, EW.
Ukronazis forces break through the LDNR defenses	Potential existential risk to the LDNR	Imposition of a no-fly zone, sustained artillery/rocket attacks on Ukie forces
Full scale Ukronazi attack	Existential threat to the LDNR	Russia moves her forces into the LDNR and stops it all.

Notice that in all the scenarios above, Russia does not initiate a fullscale attack on the Ukraine.

Why?

Because the decision to launch a fullscale attack on the Ukronazi state would be based not on events along the LOC (line of contact) but upon a much “bigger picture” of what the West might, or might not do, in the Ukraine and the rest of Europe.

In other words, the problem of the LDNR is separate from the much greater problem of the future security arrangement of Europe.

Also, another much needed reminder: when does it makes sense to negotiate with your enemies?

• Not when you “trust” them.
• Not when you hope to “convince” them.
• Not when you hope to “show a peaceful face” to the general public.

No, it makes sense to negotiate with your enemy when:

• You hope to achieve more by negotiations then by using military force.
• Time is on your side.
• When you need to buy more time (for whatever reasons).

The US and its EU colonies have been predicting a Russian intervention for months now.  That intervention has not happened (yet) and this is driving the leaders of the West into total despair.  This is good for Russia and that is how she wants to keep the situation for as long as possible.

I am personally convinced that the only way to solve both the specific LDNR option and to create a new security architecture in Europe will have to be achieved by Russian unilateral military operation: the folks in the West need yet another military defeat to come back to their senses (they need one about every century or so).  If the Russians also see that as inevitable, they still have two things they need to do first:

• To delay an open intervention as much as possible in order to subvert the western narrative
• To engage in what could be called the “psychological preparation of the theater of operations” which, in plain English, to create such a level of anger in the LDNR and also inside Russia that the public opinion will DEMAND an intervention.

There WILL be real negative economic and political repercussions for Russia when she intervenes.  Thus it is vital for Putin and the government to create such a political dynamic inside Russia that the Russian people will not only support an intervention, but DEMAND one.  Then, when the western “sanctions from hell” are imposed, the people will not blame Putin for the very real price Russia will have to pay to prevail.

Right now, you could say that the Russian bear has been awoken by all the noise, it has come out of its lair and is just looking.  Just that has the entire West in a state of total panic.

Good.

But when that bear will actually attack will not be decided by anyone but that bear.

The Ukies have declared on numerous occasions that they will not implement the Minsk Agreements.  That is very good.

Now their attack on the LDNR seems to show that the Ukies now want to provoke a Russian response.  This is also very good, as the level of public outrage on the RuNet and even on Russian TV has gone through the roof.  The Russian PSYOP preparation of the battlefield is progressing in the right direction.

As for the LDNR defenses, they seem to be holding, but the real, major, Ukie ground offensive has not begun yet!

That is the next thing we need to look for: a Ukie ground attack.  Specifically, we don’t need to worry primarily about the initiation of that coming Ukie attack, but what it yields in the first 4-6 hours or so.  Once the Ukies are fully committed, then they become a legitimate target for counter-strikes.

So this is The Big Question now: will the LDNR defenses hold?

==>>So this is the key thing to observe is this: is the LOC moving and, if yes, how far and how fast?<<==

My personal guess is that yes, they will, which will leave only two options to the Ukronazis:

• Give up
• Launch a massive, full-scale attack

The latter is much more likely than the former.

And, in the meantime, the pain dial for the West is slowly turning up pretty much on all fronts.

So for Russia it makes sense to let that process take as long as possible before deciding to interrupt it and overtly intervene.

I hear one argument: what about the innocent civilians murdered in the LDNR?

What about them?

Does anybody seriously think that a Russian intervention will result in less casualties than what is currently taking place?

The horrible truth is that loss of life will happen no matter how the situation evolves.  So the only real choice is not “save civilians or let them die” the choice is “make sure that every civilian death counts”.  Sound cynical?  It is, but that is the reality of real warfare (as opposed to the Hollywood & Tom Clancy nonsense folks in the West are brainwashed with since birth).

So, to all those who are constantly demanding that Russia intervene *now* and who don’t understand why Lavrov agreed to meet with Blinken, I will say this: do not project your own emotions and reactions unto Putin or, if you prefer, the “Russian bear”.  The Russians did not create the biggest country on earth and defeated all their enemies by being naive or by being unable to calculate when/how to react against a foreign aggression.

If you think that you know better, good for you, just don’t expect Putin to act the way you would in the same situation.

Lastly, there is something morally repugnant in the attitude of those who see warfare as anything but the weapon of last resort.  Christ said “blessed are the peacemakers” not “blessed are the warmakers”.  Yes, as I said, I believe that Russia will have to intervene, openly and directly.  But I also believe that Putin will wait as much as possible.  That is not only operationally wise, it is morally correct.

Andrei

ADDENDUM: I remember how the western media said that the city of Sarajevo was “intensively shelled” by the Serbs.  Utter nonsense!  These folks simply don’t understand modern warfare.  When a shell lands every few minutes or so this is NOT any “intense artillery fire”.  Now, when an area the size of one, or even several, football field instantly goes up in flames, that is a serious artillery strike.  What we see as of right now in the LDNR is what could be called “disturbing fire”.  When the Ukies used de-mining vehicles yesterday that could be part of a preparation for a ground assault.  This has NOT happened YET.  As for a ground assault, so far the Ukies have only sent in special forces and, apparently, they got detected, took casualties, and had to retreat.

All this is way below the threshold at which Russia will have to intervene.

Tomorrow will be a big day (even if nothing happens!)

February 15, 2022

For starters, a quick reminder here is what the Anglo propaganda machine claims:

Okay, then one of two things will happen tomorrow:

• Option 1: nothing happens
• Option 2: something happens

Option 1: If nothing happens, then, as Lavrov has spelled out recently, the Biden Administration will have to declare that “led by the glorious and invincible USA, and fully united against the Russian aggression, the West has deterred Putin from his bloodthirsty plans“.  The problem with this version is that considering the abject and cowardly flight from all the western embassies and organizations to Lvov or even the EU, it will be hard to explain how such a panicked flight has “deterred Putin”.  Only ignorant and terminally stupid people could take that kind of self-evident nonsense seriously.

The most hilarious part of this option will be that the Ukronazis will ALSO want the title of “defender of the Western White Civilization” and they will claim that it was *their* glorious and invincible military which deterred Putin and saved the western civilization from the looting Asiatic hordes.

As for (the always constipated and terrified looking) Jens Stoltenberg, he has already declared that the end of the Russian military exercises proves nothing: they, the Russians could have pre-positioned equipment near the Ukie border and that they can come back in a blink of an eye.  Yes, that imbecile still thinks that he will see thousands Russian tanks stream across the border like some historical recreation of a famous 20th century tank battle…

As for the geniuses at the CIA, they are probably still modeling whether the weather tomorrow will freeze or not (apparently, they think that Ukie weather conditions can limit Russian tank operations).

So if nothing happens, the end result will be victory for Russia

Option 2: If something happens, the West will blame it on Russia, irrespective of whatever actually happened.  Then the verbiage will change to “lead by the glorious USA, and fully united against the Russian aggression, the West will impose sanctions from hell on Russia and stand by the heroic people of the Ukraine“.  The minor problem here is that the West has already imposed pretty much all the sanctions it could and they only made the Russian economy prosper.  The much bigger problem with that option will be that this will ruin the EU’s economy, something which the US leaders of the Empire not only want, but desperately need.  But that is also something that will have a truly devastating impact on the EU’s economy and political atmosphere.

Here again, one of two things can happen:

• Option 3: the LDNR holds the line with minimal Russian support (C4ISTAR) and maybe a no-fly zone (which Russia can impose without moving gear into the LDNR or without even leaving Russian airspace).
• Option 4: the Anglo provocation leaves Russia no option but to openly intervene.

If option 3 happens, this will be a true triumph for Russia and a nightmare come true for the West.

Is it possible?  I think that yes, it is (I discuss that here).

However, we cannot make that assumption, and we need to look at the consequences of option 4.

Option 4: if Russia is forced to intervene, then two things will happen simultaneously:

1. The US and NATO will have succeeded in their goals to force Russia to intervene and
2. The West will recoil in terror once it sees what the Russian military actually can do

So if something forces Russia to intervene tomorrow (or in the future), this will be a triumph for the Anglos, a disaster for the EU, and a political defeat for Russia.

For Russia this will be an easy military victory, but which will come at a cost, including:

• Military and civilian losses
• Russia will have to pay for the rebuilding of any part of the Ukraine she liberates
• Russia will have to maintain law and order in any part of the Ukraine she liberates.
• Russia will have to feed, treat and otherwise sustain all the Ukie civilians she liberates.
• The Nazis in Kiev and the Neocons in DC will have a great opportunity to blame all their crises (plural) on Russia.
• By liberating x% of the Ukraine Russia will “place across the Russian border” many anti-Nazi Ukrainians who will become less of the problem and potential threat to the Nazis in Kiev.  The Banderista ideology will reach a new level in the parts of the Ukraine that Russia won’t liberate (for whatever reason).

And, of course, the EU will also pay very real costs, economically of course (how do you think the markets will react to a real war in the Ukraine?), but also socially and politically.  But there is absolutely nothing the EU’s  “great supine protoplasmic invertebrate jellies” (to use BoJo’s very apt expression) will be able to do about it.  They will know that they have been screwed, but they won’t be able to do anything about it.  The words which Putin recently addressed to the Ukrainians (“you don’t like it? you really don’t like it? well, endure my daring, just endure it!“) might as well be addressed to the EU too!

After all, if the Europeans have no self-respect, why should anybody in Russia show them any respect?

Here is something absolutely crucial which we have to keep in mind regardless of what happens tomorrow or not:

The West has *ALREADY* FLED THE UKRAINE!

That “Kabul moment” has already happened.

And that shameful flight has already proven beyond any reasonable doubts that:

1. Russia is militarily stronger than the US+NATO and all the western threats are just that, empty threats.  The “real truth” is that the US and NATO fear the Russian military.
2. That nobody will fight for the Ukraine and that all the promises made to the Ukraine in the past three decades by the West were every bit as false as all the promises made to Russia in the same past three decades.  The AngloZionist Empire will go down in history as the “Empire of hypocrisy and lies”.
3. NATO is a paper tiger whose sole purpose is to “keep the Germans down and the Yanks in” but it simply does not have the means to “keep the Russians out”.  Good thing that Russia wants nothing to do with the EU.  Let the EU “have fun” with immigration, trannies, poverty, COVID-repressions, civil protests, etc. etc. etc.
4. The US wants to further impose its domination of Europe, including by selling the EU energy at vastly inflated prices.  They are willing to set the Ukraine ablaze and let the EU spiral down into an unrecoverable spin.

The US IT giants are already imposing an informational blockade on the Donbass, and we can be assured that the western free media will print exactly what it will be told to print.  So initially, those who still pay attention to the western propaganda outlets will get a totally false image of what is really happening.

But this is the age of the smartphone and there is only so long that the rulers of Zone A can maintain their informational great wall before the truth beings seeping in.

It was easy to lie about MH-17, the Skripals, Navalnyi or Gouta.  But in Kabul there were too many people out there, and too many of them had cellphones with cameras (even primitive cheap cameras were good enough for the job).  And so the massive US faceplant in Kabul became famous worldwide.

There are even many more cellphones in Banderastan and the LDNR, so Uncle Shmuel won’t be able to shove it all down under the carpet and pretend like “all is well, we control the situation”.

If/when the provocation/attack happens in the LDNR, it will be impossible to stop the steady trickle of info coming from the LDNR and cracks will start to appear in the West’s propaganda. That, in turn, will result in even more finger pointing, threats, accusations, lies and all the rest of the verbal vomit the western propaganda outlets have been churning out for years, centuries and even millennia.

Finally, we have to assume that all the EU/NATO governments, including the US one, will crackdown on dissent and will engage in a systematic campaign to repress and silence anybody daring to disobey their orders.  Things will get uglier and uglier, especially with hyperinflation and stagflation kicking in.  Putin even warned about food riots but, of course, nobody in the West heeded his warning (not listening to anything Putin says is considered the height of political acumen in the West).

A final warning: we can’t let the tree hide the forest!

The Ukraine is not, repeat, NOT, what Russia is concerned about.  Russia wants a new, multi-polar, international order which would include a new collective security architecture in Europe.

So whatever happens, or does not happen, tomorrow, this will be just one date after which none of the key issues will be resolved (no, Russia has no intention of “solving” the Ukrainian problem by invasion, that is total nonsense).

So while the deadline for a provocation is somewhere between “any second now, tomorrow or maybe in a few days”, the process of reforming the security architecture of Europe will be much longer, several months at the least, and it will be peppered with more flareups and crises (real or imagined).

In conclusion, I ask you all, the readers and commentators, NOT to come to some conclusions, any conclusions really, tomorrow or in the next couple of days.  First, you won’t have access even to the minimal info needed to reach any conclusions, second, you will be proactively targeted by western PSYOPs to prevent your mind from making it into Zone A and, third, even if tomorrow will be a battle of some sorts, informational and/or kinetic, but the game is far, very far, from over.

We will only be able to accurately access what will happen weeks, if not months, down the road, once we actually see outcomes, not just processes!

I will end this post with a new Russian joke.  Two quick notes to clarify the context:

Note 1: the Ukies like to call Russian “Asians” and in the Ukronazi lexicon “Buriat” stands for “Asiatic snow nigger” or something similar.

Note 2: February 23rd is the Russian “Defender of the Fatherland Day”.

“The officers of the 810th Separate Naval Infantry of the Black Sea fleet called a restaurant in downtown Kiev and ordered a table for the February 23rd evening, but they were told that all the tables were already reserved by the officers of the 5th Separate Tank Brigade from Buryatia!  The Russians are now vehemently protesting at how the devious Ukrainian are trying to drive a wedge between the brotherhood of Russian and Buriat comrades-in-arms!  As for all the other restaurants in Kiev, they have already been booked by the soldiers and officers of the Pskov Airborne Division!“

Okay, this is just that, a *joke*.  My fervent hope is that Russia will not be compelled to intervene.  Let the Ukrainians solve their own problems by themselves.  We owe them exactly and absolutely *nothing* (other, of course, than the commitment we took not to allow a genocide in the LDNR).

Lastly, again, I urge you to check out the latest from Andrei Martyanov: Russia has deployed both Tu-22M3 and MiG-31K with Kinzhal hypersonic missiles in Syria, see for yourself here:

https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/02/messaging.html

Andrei

The West’s two replies, just a few disjointed thoughts

February 02, 2022

Disclaimer: this is not an analysis, just a quick initial reaction.

So we now have both replies.

First, Lavrov was right, compared to the NATO reply, the US reply is a model of diplomatic propriety.

One could be forgiven to think that while the US reply was written by US officials, the NATO reply was written by a Pole.

Except it is quite obvious that NATO member states can’t even take a breath without asking Uncle Shmuel’s permission.

So are these two very different replies prepared by the self same people?

Yup.  That is my guess.

Next, let’s look at the core of the replies:

• US: let’s talk, and talk, and then talk some more ad aeternam
• NATO reply: do you clearly see our middle finger Mr Putin?

In reality, it is one and the same reply: the Master Race does not negotiate with Snow Niggers.

By the way, all the quite reasonable confidence building measures now “proposed” by the USA have all been proposed by Russia in the past and proudly rejected by the Master Race.

What effect will that single reply (in two hypostases) will most likely result in.

• The Russians will act unilaterally and dial up the pain dial, very slowly and deliberately.
• The EU will act like kids who threw a stone at a window: run like hell, hide, and wait to see what Russia will do.  If the markets read this correctly, they should freak out begin a sharp decline.
• The US will keep a mostly benevolent facial expression while egging on the EU to further provoke Russia
• Both Zones A and Zones B will consolidate around, respectively, the US and Russia/China.

I will stop here by adding just a few simple facts:

• China cannot afford a Western victory in this struggle (anymore than Russia can afford a US victory against China).  Since Putin is going to meet Xi in Beijing, we can expect some interesting statements to come out in the near future.
• It is extremely likely that the Russian Duma will officially sent major military aid to the LDNR.
• It is very possible that the Russian Duma will ask the Kremlin to recognize the LDNR.
• A CIA/MI6 false flag attack in the Ukraine is very likely.
• Ze is screwed.  He knows it.

That’s it, let’s wait a day or so before making any real analyses.

Andrei

PS: the one thing which really makes me laugh is this: if a big war is about to break up, why are western diplomats being evacuated from Kiev but not from Moscow?  🙂

High probability of a major false flag PSYOP in the Ukraine

JAN 31, 2022

A senior LDNR military official, Col. Edward Basurin, the Deputy Head of the DPR People’s Militia Department, has confirmed that a false flag PSYOP operation was prepared by western special services (please make sure to also check the article Lilia Shumkova wrote about this).  According to Basurin, we are talking about three separate video productions which will be prepared for release by the AngloZionist propaganda machine (aka “the free and democratic press”) and on social media.  The three videos will have the following topics:

• First video: it will show how the Russians hordes will attack the noble Ukrainian forces which, of course, will heroically repel the assaults of the barbaric vodka soaked Snow Niggers.
• Second video: the heroic Ukrainian forces, armed with Javelins, will mount a successful counter attack and will penetrate deep inside the territory of the LDNR.
• Third video: LDNR civilians will welcome the Ukronazi forces as European liberators from the Asiatic Russian yoke.

Any civilians killed in the process will, of course, be declared “terrorists”.

The purpose of these videos will be to demoralize both the civilians and the soldiers defending the LDNR.  This is what I call the “Borg message” (“surrender, resistance is futile, you shall be assimilated“) from the Star Trek Next Generation series.

When analyzing information, it is a common practice to separately evaluate the source and the actual contents of this information.  Nothing personal against Col Basurin (whom I like), but since he is a top level official, I cannot credit him as a source anywhere higher than “B”.  That means that he is a pretty decent source, but not only to be categorically trusted.  In terms of the actual info, I would rate the above it as a “1” with no hesitation whatsoever: that means that the contents of the information provided by Basurin fully agrees/”fits” with all the other information I have access to.

Therefore, with an overall rating of B-1 this is info we most definitely cannot ignore.

Now, it goes without saying, that Basurin’s purpose in releasing this info is to preempt that PSYOP, just like Russia recently did with the planned false flag chemical attacks.  Hopefully this will happen again.

But we need to understand two crucial facts:

• The US and UK are absolutely desperate for war.
• PSYOPS and false flags cost money and resources, the West simply cannot afford canceling them over and over again “just” because the Russians revealed what is being planned.

Finally, on all sides, except in Russia proper, it the overall situation is extremely unstable.

Something must give, and something will give.  Probably within weeks, possibly within days.

Today the US tried to engage in some “preparation of the informational battlefield” at the UNSC.  It was a waste of time, especially since both Russia and China could veto any decision anyway.  But remember, past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior.

Colin Powell anybody?

BTW – I want to remind everybody the reason for all this panic: it appears that the West won’t be able to force Russia to send forces into the Ukraine.  The only likely Russian move would be to recognize the LDNR and bring in peacekeepers, which would be totally insufficient for western PSYOPs to declare that the Russian hordes are invading the peace loving Ukraine and are about to “loot Kiev” and all of the European continent.

These are the folks who not only did MH-17, the Skripals or even the fake chemical attacks in Syria, these are the folks who also did 9/11 murdering 3000 of their own innocent civilians.  For them to fight Russia down the the last Ukie is a totally viable and reasonable plan.  So blowing up, say, a Ukie nuclear plant or releasing a “dirty bomb” in downtown Kiev is a no-brainer for them.

I don’t know if Basurin’s very specific warning will preempt this latest PSYOPs and whether the filming and release of these three videos will happen or not, but I would be amazed if we did not see a major, dramatic, false flag taking place somewhere in the Ukraine (either in Banderastan proper or in the LDNR) in the next couple of weeks.

Andrei

Panic and chaos is clearly setting in as the West fears peace above all else

January 28, 2022

Source

Fun headlines for CNN:

• US and Ukraine at odds over threat of Russian invasion
• US and UK embassy withdrawals were a “mistake,” says Ukrainian president

What??  Is that really CNN?

It is.

Furthermore, there are reports that Biden and Ze had a stormy telephone conversation which saw a furious Biden telling Ze that the invasion would happen.  Apparently, Ze disagreed.

So what is going on here????

Bernard at Moon of Alabama things that “Washington Will Soon Dump Ukraine’s President Zelensky“.

I concur.  In fact, I think that the US is basically dumping country 404 aka Banderastan, and as I explained here and here in some details, there is only one thing Uncle Shmuel wants from Ze and the Ukraine: for them to force Russia to intervene, either by a suicidal attack on the LDNR or by means of a false flag, or by some kind of atrocity.

A real nightmare for the AngloZionists is taking shape.  Here are its components:

• In spite of all the external (and even INTERNAL!) pressures, the Kremlin does not want to invade the Ukraine at all.  There are exactly ZERO signs that an attack is imminent or even planned.
• In case of a Ukie attack on the LDNR there is a very real possibility that Russia will not openly intervene, I explained it all in detail here.
• The US PSYOP about Putin being weak, indecisive or a puppet of the USA/Israel (I explained the nature, function and purpose of this CIA PSYOP in details here) is falling apart, not only was the ultimatum very much an ultimatum, but the Russians are backing it with things like these.
• NATO is cracking at the seams: the Croatians already said “no thanks”, the French and Germans don’t want to commit energetic seppuku, the Bulgarians are demanding details and guarantees and the French MPs are discussing whether to stay in NATO or not (they will stay, of course, but the topic is now raised).
• Neocon freaks like Nuland and Blinken are in full panic mode, they more than anybody else want a war and now that Russia seems to be able to deny them that, they will stay stuck with the own corruption, failures and potential electoral apocalypse in November.
• The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley warned a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be “horrific” for the country and would result in “significant” casualties.  No kidding!

As for Ze, here are three headlines linked to his latest and, frankly, amazing statements:

• Ukraine crisis: Don’t create panic, Zelensky tells West
• Ukraine’s President Zelensky urges world leaders to tone down rhetoric on threat of war with Russia
• Volodymyr Zelensky accuses the West of causing ‘panic’ with warnings of a Russian invasion that hurts the Ukrainian economy

If anything, this open conflict between “Ze” and “Biden” shows two things:

1. Zelenskii does not want to die, not even for the United States
2. Biden is losing control of the Ukie narrative, thus losing control of country 404

Keep in mind that all these fake news about a Russian invasion are resulting in an economic disaster for the Ukraine.  Just like the AngloZionist sanctions ended up hurting the West a lot more than Russia (hence they had to give up the plan to disconnect Russian from the SWIFT).

Interestingly, the head of the German intelligence service felt compelled to support Biden’s “Russia is about to attack in 30 seconds, and that’s a fact” point of view.  That will result in internal tensions inside Germany who just fired the head of the German Navy for disagreeing with the official AngloZionist narrative.

Chaos and panic at all levels and everywhere.

Except in Russia and least of all in the Kremlin, of course.

There are signs that the worst nightmare for the Neocons might actually happen and Russia won’t be forced to invade the Ukraine.

What do Neocons do when they panic?  Correct – false flag operations: that is MH-17 was all about.  And the Skripals.  And the “chemical attacks” in Syria.  And Navalnyi. And so many others that I won’t list them here.

We can be sure they will try, what is uncertain is whether they will succeed.

These are the same people who did 9/11, and they are literally capable of *anything*, including  a dirty bomb in downtown Kiev, a nuclear accident in the Ukraine blamed on Russian “saboteurs” or missiles, another civilian aircraft (or ship) destroyed a la MH-17, blow up a damn – you name it: if it is depraved, evil, ugly and based on accusations but zero evidence – you know its the Neocons which are at it.

Let’s wait for the US and NATO replies to become public before we try to guess what will happen next.  The actual texts should be leaked soon.

Andrei

Tuesday morning headlines (a little change of tone or not?)

January 25, 2022

A few more links here, and amongst the many similar to yesterday’s, I decided to single out some possibly different ones:

NATO member will withdraw troops in event of war with Russia – president

Russia may not be poised to invade Ukraine – Pentagon

Germany has ‘betrayed’ Ukraine – Kiev mayor

No threat of immediate Russian attack on Ukraine – EU

Oleksiy Danilov informed about the results of the NSDC meeting

Zelensky to Ukrainians: Everything under control, no reason to panic

Ukraine urges calm, saying Russian invasion not imminent

Of course, this selection is very one-sided, there are many more headlines every bit as bad the ones yesterday, so let’s not make too much of this.

Also, please remember that in 08.08.08 Saakashvili made a speech promising peace to South Ossetia just HOURS before the Georgian forces attacked!

But what this does show, is that there is a “narrative chaos“.

Actually, this is just the tip of a much bigger iceberg.  The fact is that Russia’s ultimatum has created chaos in the so-called “united West” pitting some part of the deep state elites against others.  That, by itself, is already a very good outcome.

Another good outcome is the laughable idea to send a few thousands US troops to “defend Europe” within five days.  Why is is laughable:

• a few thousand troops make no difference
• bringing them to the EU is not enough, you then have to prepare them and deploy them for combat; that would take much longer.
• If a Ukie attack is limited to the LDNR, it will take about 24 hours to stop it.  It would take Russia less than a week to destroy the Ukie military.  By the time the first US jarheads land in Germany or Poland, it will all be over.
• Finally, what does adding several thousands solider from a military which has never fought in defense of its homeland and never won a war since WWII do to “deter Russia” anyway?

Next, I strictly personal opinion about Russian forces in Cuba/Nicarague/Venezuela/etc.

As Andrei Martyanov recently commented, western military moves are all about PR.  Russian military moves are all about war.  From a PR prospective, deploying Russian missiles in Cuba or Venezuela might look like a good idea, but from a military point of view?

Does anybody remember that the USSR had several brigades defending the Soviet missiles in Cuba?  Why, because Cuba is as close to the USA as Estonia is to Russia, and that means that deploying forces right across the US border puts that force at a huge risk of US preemptive attack.

Next, while Cuba is the most stable of them all, it is a fact that thanks to decades of subversion, attacks, sabotage, coup attempts and the like, countries like Nicaragua or Venezuela are inherently unstable (again, by no fault of their own).  Placing weapons like, say, the Iskander complexes there would not only expose them to attack, but even possibly to capture.  Some will say that Russia can send forces there to defend them.  In theory – yes.  But in practice?

Such a deployment would be both risky and very very expensive.  Also, what if the US decides not to invade Cuba/Venezuela/Nicaragua but to blockade it.  Does the Russian military have the means to breach a blockade many thousands of miles away from Russia?  Nope, she does not.  Neither her Navy nor her Aerospace forces have the means to engage in a struggle for naval/air superiority against the USA in the Caribbean.

It would be much safer, quicker and cheaper to use her submarines and long range aviation to threaten both US coasts, the one in the Atlantic and the one in the Pacific with cruise and ballistic missiles, including hypersonic ones.  I won’t even mention the Poseidon underwater drones which could completely wipe out both US coasts.

Interestingly, the RAND corporation is posting articles which strongly suggest that the US and the West are deluding themselves about how war between Banderastan and Russia would look.  Check these out:

U.S. Military Aid to Ukraine: A Silver Bullet?

Ukraine Needs Help Surviving Airstrikes, Not Just Killing Tanks

Okay, RAND is RAND, so they will never challenge the official narrative about Russia as the evil aggressor, but this shows, yet again, that there is some very serious disagreements inside the US ruling elites.

I will conclude today with 4 photos under the heading “one image is worth 1000 words”:

This is the Russian minister of defense:

These are Russian soliders

This is the Ukie minister of defense:

This is, according the The Times, the soldiers civilians which will deter/defeat the Russians

Reach your own conclusions 🙂

Andrei

PS: if you understand Russian, here is some good info on the woman created above.

Is there a deal being prepared behind the scenes?

January 21, 2022

I have to admit that when I heard that the US has no intention of giving the Russians anything in writing I began wondering whether it even made sense for Lavrov to fly to Geneva.  Yet, Lavrov thought otherwise and flew to the Swiss city.  The outcome?  Meh…

The US wants another week to prepare a written reply.  Okay, that is some kind of result and I suppose that, considering what is at stake, waiting yet another week is okay.  Frankly, the Russians are acutely aware of two things:

• US diplomats and experts are, at best, clueless amateurs
• The War Party is in full-blow hysterics mode

So they decided to give “Biden” another week.  Like a teacher who agrees to give a particularly dumb student a few extra days to turn in his assignment.

What else?

Well, there is this: remember the rather weird words by Biden about a “minor incursion“? (since then, both Biden himself and Blinken has declared that Biden was misunderstood).

Today former ambassador McFaul, a true russophobic nutcase and certified imbecile, said that if the Russian soldiers go as far as Kiev this would trigger a full-scale response from the US and its allies.

Wait! What?

Since when do the Russian have to get their soldiers as far as Kiev to get sanctioned???

Before continuing, a few absolutely CRUCIAL reminders:

• Russia neither wants nor has any reason at all to invade country 404, with all its intellectuals already long gone (most of them in Russia, low qualified refugees when to clean EU toilets), its deindustrialized wastelands, its many neo-Nazis and zero natural resources (they already sold it all).  In fact, most Russians are categorically opposed to any such intervention.
• The only thing which could force Russia to use her ground forces would be a successful (and rather unlikely) Ukrainian invasion of the LDNR.  Russia currently does have the forces needed for such a counter-attack in her western regions.  She does not have the size of force needed to occupy the Ukraine.
• Russia has the means to defang the Ukie military using only standoff weapons, Russian military experts believe that such an operation would take a week or even less.

In other words, the notion of a Russian ground operation to take Kiev is total, hallucinatory, nonsense. Ditto for the idiotic idea that Russia must invade in February before the frozen ground turns into dirt (Russian ground forces have no problems operating or fighting with dirt, snowmelts or any other natural phenomenon between -50C to +50C).  That is exactly the kind of crap McFaul always spews (with this uniquely paranoid eyes and freaked-out facial expression).  But the fact that McFaul is a drooling idiot does not mean that he does not have access to what is going on behind the scenes (Blinken is just as dumb, and he is in charge of the entire US diplomacy).

So what gave him this truly weird idea?

First Biden with his “minor incursion”.

Now McFaul with his “no Russian soldiers in Kiev”.

I can offer three possible explanations for that:

1. The Biden Admin is doing a “April Glaspie” operation on Russia: tell the Russians that the US will do little or nothing as long as Russia only liberates some areas (presumably in the eastern and/or southern Ukraine) only to then take that as a pretext and declare some kind of war (probably not military, but political and economic for sure).
2. The Biden Admin is really trying to get rid of the Ukie suitcase and wants to break up this monstrosity into smaller, much more manageable, successor states.  If so, I like the idea.
3. The Biden Admin is ready to let the LDNR break-away and move under the protection of Russia.  Officially, of course, the USA will never agree to that, but they can present that as a problem they did not create and they could not solve alone either (or something else along similar PR lines).

Now, like I always repeat, there is a HUGE difference between “possible” and “likely”.  The explanations above are only *possible* explanations for the weird language coming out of Biden and McFaul.

I also hasten to add that I don’t think that Russia will accept any such terms because they only refer to the Ukraine and not to a new international world order with a new international security framework, which is really what the Russians are after.  And we are talking about verifiable, binding, security guarantees – not written, or even less so, oral, assurances.

However, if these proposals are made as one part of a much broader package of ideas, then they would be worth at least considering.

I have to tell you that my feeling is that the US has already at least partially lost control of the Ukraine and possibly even the EU.

Remember how I always write that when the US President is weak (which all of them since Bush Sr. have been) then the various branches of government and administrations begin doing their own thing, having a semi-official foreign policy of their own: one by the CIA, another one by the Pentagon, another one by Foggy Bottom, etc.?

Well, the same applies to US colonies: when the colonial master is weak and in deep crisis, the colonies begin feeling that they can act more independently.  For example, the 3B+PU gang are now clearly setting the agenda in the EU, and the old Europeans à la Germany of France have become quasi irrelevant.  Likewise, I am not confident at all that the real, hardcore, Ukronazis give a damn about what the US has to say, especially since the said Ukronazis seem to have the solid backing of the EU and parts of the Ukie government: just look at how Ze was unable to deal with Poroshenko – that will tell you a lot about the real correlation of forces in Banderastan.

This is the “tail wags the dog” thing on an international level.

All that is to say that I don’t find it likely that some big deal is being worked on behind the scenes.

But I do find it possible.

We shall find out soon, in one week or less according to the US side.

In the meantime the Ukies are massing a very large force right across the line of contact.  I think of these Ukie forces like I think of folks driving motorcycles without a helmet: organ donors.  Should the Ukies use that force to actually attack, the Russians will destroy that force in 24 hours or less.  The problem is that Ukronazis are 1) rather stupid 2) totally fanaticized and 3) utterly unaware of the realities of modern warfare.

By the way, from a purely US point of view having the Ukronazis wiped out by Russian strikes is not a bad outcome as it would get rid of loads of truly crazy and unsavory characters.

I think of it as a “de-nazification by Russia” (along the lines of the expression “suicide by cop”).

One more thing: remember the rumors about the Russian evacuating their diplomatic personnel from Kiev?  Turns out that it ain’t Russia, but the US and EU representations which are being evacuated (at least partially).

In the meantime, Stoltenberg wants Sweden and Finland to join NATO while many EU countries are now sending (small) forces into various locations in Eastern Europe.  The worst of them all, the Baltic statelets, are now shipping Stinger MANPADs to the Ukies.  Knowing how many Takfiris and neo-Nazis nutcases there are in Banderastan, this is absolutely, totally and terminally irresponsible!  Yet those demented idiots are doing it.  Typical.

I wish everybody a peaceful and great week-end!

Andrei

Opening Statements: Lavrov : Blinken : Meet in Geneva (Update)

January 21, 2022

Ed. Note:  Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken commence talks in Geneva. This video contains only the opening statements where the press was allowed.  At approx. time marker 6.35, the opening statements are over and there is nothing of value in the rest of the video.   The Saker Blog will continue updating here for the rest of the day and there will be transcripts.

Update:  1.5 hours and Lavrov is doing his presser.  It’s done for today.  The presser is still live at this time.

The (apparent) disagreement between Ze and “Biden”

January 20, 2022

As I mentioned it yesterday, Biden said something rather weird yesterday.  He said:

Quote: “Russia will be held accountable if it invades and it depends on what it does – it’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion and then we end up having to fight about what to do and what not to do, but if they actually do what they’re capable of doing with the force amassed on the border it is going to be a disaster for Russia if they further invade Ukraine,” Biden said, adding that Russia has overwhelming superiority over Ukraine”

What in the world is a “minor incursion” anyway???

This was Ze’s reply:

Of course, hearing Ze refer to country 404 as a “great power” is cute and hilarious as it gets.

But the real question is this: did Biden just not understand the possible implication of what he said, is this just a case of dementia, or did he inadvertently reveal something which is being worked on behind the scenes?

By the way, in the fraternal model, which is horizontal, all countries ARE equal in rights and obligations, being equal in their nature and essence, while the Kindergarten model is highly hierarchical and absolutely implies that “some are more equal than others”.  For the true believers in this Kindergarten model any discussion of equality is a dangerous road to chaos and anarchy.  So yes, while they speak a lot about freedom, in reality they both hate and fear it like a very dangerous thing (God forbid the slaves would revolt and decide to kill the plantation owner!).

Another interesting aspect of the current crisis is this: both the US and the UK have publicly admitted that they have sent “advisors” to the Ukraine and both the US and UK have admitted sending weapons to the Ukraine.  Problem: the Minsk Agreements‘ point #10 specifically states mandates “to withdraw illegal armed groups and military equipment as well as fighters and mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine” while the additional memorandum states that “all foreign mercenaries” must be withdrawn from the conflict zone.  Now, OF COURSE, the noble defenders of democracy, freedom and peace worldwide (aka US/NATO “Axis of Kindness” forces) are not “mercenaries” (even though they are paid killers who do not defend their own country), only Russian volunteers in the LDNR are, at least that is the West’s position on this issue.  But for any mentally sane person it is pretty clear that the West is in clear violation of both the letter and spirit of the Minsk Agreements.  So what does that mean for Russia?

It means that both the Nazi-run Ukraine and the collective West don’t have (and never had) any real desire to abide by the Minsk Agreements, in spite of the fact that the latter are backed by a UNSC Resolution (making them legally binding and mandatory).  Again, under the Kindergarten worldview, even the UN is just one more “small, rowdy kid” which can be totally ignored or told to shut up and behave.

Anyway,

Tomorrow Bliken and Lavrov are supposed to meet.

Bliken would have made a terrific tailor or small shop owner.  But as a diplomat he truly sub-zero.  And that is true for ALL US diplomats and officials.  Yesterday a former Russian negotiator was describing his impression of Viki Nuland as a “dumb broad” who was completely ignorant of the world affairs she was in charge of dealing with on behalf of the USA.  Here is what Andrei Martyanov wrote about “US experts” from the USA: “bar some few exceptions, US academe, including those who specialize in Russia are not experts. They are narrative-mongers, majority of who have no serious skills, background nor experience in anything they try to “analyze” about Russia–this problem is systemic and is due to a complete corruption of the America’s education, especially history and military history and over-saturation of the American body-politic by people without any serious education or lawyers. It is literally the situation of auto-mechanic with vocational school performing an open heart surgery and thinking that he knows what he is doing. You can easily predict the result, for a patient“.  I can only fully agree with this opinion.

I think that the intense stupidity, arrogance and crass ignorance (not to mention a major delusional narcissistic and messianic sense of invulnerability) will play a key role in what happens next.  The AngloZionist propaganda machine has been spewing such a hate-filled and totally paranoid propaganda against Russia and Putin that this propaganda has become a foundational principle of the West’s foreign policy.  Even if Biden gives Putin a tiny little mini-concession (say using transponders of NATO aircraft) the Neocons and Neolibs of the War Party in Congress will absolutely crucify Biden for being “weak” and “caving in to Putin”.  Considering that Biden has been an absolutely awful president which has only failures to show for (not even a single semi-success) and that there will be a Congressional election the USA later this year, any mentally sane agreement, however unlikely, between Russia and the USA will be declared a “capitulation” which will bring all the flag-waving idiots to vote for the GOP which, right now, looks even more insane then the Dems.

Yes, a miracle can happen.  But what I am observing in the past two weeks or so, and today, are not at all signs of something reasonable being worked on but, rather, a hysterical attempt by the rulers of the Empire (and their minions in the EU) to defeat reality by pretending not to notice it.

That never works and it won’t work this time.

I hope tomorrow will prove me wrong, I REALLY do.

But in my strictly personal opinion, I don’t even see the point of Lavrov flying to Geneva.  I think Russia needs to stop talking to the West the same way she stopped talking to Ze and his bloody clowns, and only act unilaterally (towards the West, of course, not towards Zone B!).  There is nothing military or economic or political which the US/NATO/EU can do to Russia, so why not simply ignore them.

I would nicely and politely close the Russian diplomatic representations in the West, ditch idiotic or toxic organizations (like the COE or the WTO), and focus on collaborating with the sovereign nations in Zone B.

As for the West, Russia can let it self-destruct, which it is already doing at a maniacal pace anyway.

Sooner or later (probably the latter), the collapse of the West will generate new leaders who will have to rebuild the West on a new basis.  Then will be the time to talk to the West again.  But until non-entities like Blinken, Borrell, Stoltenberg or Baerbock remain in power, I see no point in talking to them.

Finally, the Communist Party in Russia has filed a law to be voted on by the Duma which asks the President to recognize the LDNR.  I think that the chances of this proposal are very high.  Interesting stuff.

Andrei

After sounding about as negative as possible yesterday, today Bliken has just suggested that his scheduled meeting with Lavrov tomorrow in Geneva will show how things really stand.

Wait!  I thought that there was nothing to discuss, but it turns out there might be??

Could Lavrov and Biden try to find a common definition of “minor” (as in “minor intrusion”)?

I don’t think so.  Here is why:

• Russia has no need or desire for ANY type of incursion
• Russia can totally defang the Ukronazis without moving a single solider across the border (according to specialists, this would take less than a week)
• The Empire has waged a total but “short of kinetic” war against Russia since at least 2013 and that all happened while Russia did not move into the Ukraine.  If no incursion results in such a sustained campaign by the West against Russia, how would a “minor incursion” make things better and placate the crazies?
• And if Russia decides that the united West is already maxed out on its anti-Russian policies, why limit yourself to a minor incursion?  If, say, Russia liberated the LDNR, the rest of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, and all the Ukrainian coastline on the Black Sea, something the West would surely describe as a “major invasion”, would the consequences for Russia by the same as those following a “minor invasion”?  The point is that the US has expanded all of its sanction options, any further escalation would threaten the entire international economic system and strongly increase the risks of a fullscale war.

What most observers are missing is this: the current tensions are not at all about the Ukraine, or even about NATO.  They are about a new, different, new world order.  The US wants to hear nothing about it.  Neither does the EU.  The West is absolutely and categorically opposed to any new international order.  What they want is a “rules based order” in which, of course, they alone get to make all the rules.

But for countries like Russia (or China) the current world (dis)order is categorically unacceptable.

So what is really at stake are two world views:

• Western world view: the West is the the crown of creation, the shining city on the hill, created by the Master Race before which all the “inferior” human societies need to bow and accept their dominion.  Furthermore, what is allowed for that Master Civilization is not allowed to anybody else and if/when any country begins to act in way which shows that it thinks that what is allowed to the West is also allowed to everybody else – then this country/nation needs to be taught a lesson and crushed.  You could call this model a “Kindergarten model” in which one adult teacher (the West) is tasked with supervising and educating a classroom of ignorant, immature and rowdy kids (the rest of the planet).
• Zone B worldview: the same rules apply to everybody, there is not “exceptional country” with special rights out there.  Furthermore, all security must be collective, that is to say that if you point a gun at me and I am disarmed, not only am I threatened by you, but you also expose yourself to my desperate actions to survive, which just might include killing you before you can pull the trigger.  Finally, a legal/moral rule only deserves respect if it is equally applied to all parties (if it is not, it is, by definition, hypocritical).  You could call this model a “fraternal model” in which children from the same Father (God) act in a brotherly way towards each other because they recognize their common humanity (fraternity).

Those two models are, of course, totally and categorically mutually exclusive, hence the Zone A and Zone B we see today.