Lebanon’s political showdown… will it be confined to electoral competition?

Jan 09 2022

Source: Al Mayadeen Net

By Al Mayadeen Net

After the Lebanese Forces Party announced general “electoral rallying”, a multitude of questions arise on why its discourse is in harmony with the Saudi mobilization and US embargo against Lebanon.

The confrontation comes out by escalating the internal and regional fronts

The Lebanese Forces Party (LF) in Lebanon announced general “electoral mobilization” on Saturday amid attempts to finalize control over constitutional institutions and escalate the political confrontation.
The confrontation itself would take place by escalating the internal and regional fronts, which raises questions on whether Lebanon’s crisis is limited only to economic and social issues. 

Some factions are attempting to portray Lebanon’s electoral battle as a critical juncture. The LF’s announcement of general “electoral mobilization” is understandable as far as electoral races go, but the timing, the tools, and the discourse itself raise a multitude of questions. Why is their campaign primarily based on mobilizing people against Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) and throwing accusations against them? And why are these voices pushing toward further tension, division, and incitement?

It is under these circumstances that a call for national dialogue was launched from the presidential palace in Baabda by Lebanese President Michel Aoun in order to agree on three issues and work on their application in government institutions: administrative and financial decentralization, a defense strategy to protect Lebanon, and a financial and economic recovery plan.

The invitation was met with an apology by former PM Saad Hariri, whereas PM Najib Mikati told Aoun that now is not the time to hold a dialogue.

Saoud: Likely that Geagea would attempt to start security issues

In this context, journalist Ghassan Saoud stressed to Al Mayadeen that the campaign against Hezbollah and the President is derived from their renowned position regarding the “deal of the century” and the naturalization of refugees, adding that the one responsible for the crisis is the one that prevented Lebanon’s oil from being extracted: the United States.

Saoud also considered that it was the US’ policies that forced the Lebanese into migration. 
The Lebanese journalist also noted that the US axis was the one behind the displacement of Iraq’s Christians, whereas the Resistance axis protected Syria’s Christians against ISIS. He considered that whoever wishes to speak about sovereignty should go to extract oil from the sea [meaning in defiance of US interference], emphasizing that the real sovereign is the one that stands against all foreign parties interfering in Lebanon.

He clarified that it is likely that LF Executive Chairman Samir Geagea would resort to inciting security issues

Saad: Everyone counting on the upcoming elections

For his part, Professor of International Law Antoine Saad said that Lebanon has lost the makings of a state, and everyone is counting on the next elections, adding that there is a will to do away with the bankruptcy that has plagued all the elements of state-building.

He highlighted that Lebanon currently has no sovereign authority at its land, naval, and aerial borders.

Bazzi: The Lebanese Forces is the only party receiving a monthly payment from Saudi Arabia

Political affairs expert, Wassim Bazzi, saw that the concept of mobilization is usually employed in wars and considered that Geagea is fighting an electoral battle with a military legacy, stressing that the LF chief is the Saudi spearhead in the upcoming electoral project.

Bazzi also said that the Resistance’s weapons were the only means by which Lebanon’s presence and national pride were restored, further clarifying that the LF is the only party that is receiving monthly payments from Saudi Arabia.

Lebanese Forces Executive Chairman Samir Geagea had announced yesterday his party’s complete general mobilization for the electoral battle, calling on turning all of his party’s institutions into electoral centers that would serve the party in the upcoming elections.

The Lebanese Presidency had announced a week ago that President Michel Aoun signed a decree to hold the elections in May 2022.

Lebanese Independence at Stake as Parliamentary Elections Intended to Make Major Political Change

Jan 2 2022

By Mohammad Youssef

The US administration, ‘Israel’, and many pro-America Arab countries are harboring hopes that the next parliamentary elections in Lebanon in mid May 2022 will be a landmark as it will bring a new majority that will lead the country in their direction, as they all assume.

Many plans are in the making now, some are ready to this effect.

But will their efforts succeed and will Lebanon witness a dramatic major change in its political position?

This is a valid question especially that the Americans are exercising every possible pressure to detach Lebanon from its current political position and push it towards the American sphere.

The preparations are huge and the budgets are immense, and after the American Saudi siege against Lebanon reached its peak, they suppose this will make it easier for them to buy the seats by bribing the electors with a few dollars.

Lebanon nowadays and the Lebanese are in a very dire situation, financially and economically, the budget is almost bankrupt and the state has failed to provide the vital and essential basic needs for its people; namely electricity, food, medication and health care.

All sectors are almost collapsing and the functioning ones are working at their lowest capacity.

It is anticipated that Washington and its proxy parties inside and outside the country will gradually mount their pressure as Lebanon approach the Election Day next may; this will be accompanied with a fierce media campaign to hold the resistance and its supporters responsible for all the woes that plagued the country. The main goal is to plant a wedge, sow the seeds of discord and mistrust, cast doubts about its role, depict it as a very negative one and portray it as non-conducive to public good.

The NGOs and their affiliated groups of the so-called civil society and independent figures attempt to attract more followers to their ranks by making huge investments in the misleading advertisement heavy machines.

They are trying to use bright slogans and new names to camouflage their real identities and affiliations; but what they do not know, may be, is that everyone knows almost everything about them.

The deadly mistake they did, early enough, is their animosity to all what pertains to real national independence, pride and dignity. We never heard their voices when the Saudi official authorities launched a relentless campaign against the country because of a statement made by one of the government ministers about the Saudi war against Yemen.

We never heard their voices protesting or condemning the US support to the ‘Israeli’ enemy in the issue of the maritime border demarcation.

Now, they want to focus their effort in stripping Lebanon of its strength in the resistance against the enemy so it would be easier for them to respond to Western demands to bow down to the pressures and surrender the country’s wealth and natural resources to benefit the ‘Israelis’.

The plan will simply and plainly go as follows; as these parties win the majority in the parliament, they will be in the strong position to engineer a new government, name its head and also prepare for the presidential elections where they could also choose the name that follows their plans. As such, they think they can pass the laws and regulations requested by their masters in Washington. Those laws are necessarily and truly against the Lebanese interests and would only serve the American ones.

Is this a fate that cannot be escaped?

Absolutely not, this is what they plan, but at the other side of the equation there are other parties that would not allow Washington and its allies, local or regional, to play their game of changing Lebanon’s face and faith.

Simply, Lebanon will not change to be the Lebanon on the American path, and its people’s faith and trust in their resistance and the huge sacrifices they made together will be enough to preserve Lebanon’s unity, independence and dignity.

نصيحة صادقة إن كنتم تصدقون!

ناصر قنديل

لا أحد ينكر على التيار الوطني الحر، وعلى رأسه الرئيس ميشال عون خصوصاً، من كل القوى المؤمنة بخيار المقاومة والتي انضوت تحت راية الثامن من آذار، أنه التعبير الأشد ابتعاداً عن التبعية للخارج في ساحة سياسية طائفية راهن الغرب عليها أن تكون حديقة خلفية له في لبنان وعبر لبنان في المنطقة، وأنه نجح بنقل ثقافة الاستقلال إلى شرائح واسعة في بيئته، جعلتها حليفاً محبوباً عند حزب المقاومة الأبرز الذي يمثله حزب الله، وبقوة هذا التقدير كانت الكثير من الأدبيات السياسية التي تصدر عن التيار ورئيسه النائب جبران باسيل، تقع في منطقة التفهم على رغم قساوتها الخلافية في كثير من المرات، وعدم الشعور بمبرر لها في التوقيت والسياسة، سوى دغدغة مشاعر تقليدية عدائية في بيئة يسعى لترسيخ زعامته فيها، كالاصرار على التذكير بأنه الأشد وطنية، لأنه ناهض الوجود والدور السوري في لبنان، تحت شعار توصيفهما بالوصاية والاحتلال، ولم يجد التيار وهو يقول ذلك من يسأله وماذا عن مناهضة الاحتلال الإسرائيلي، ودوركم فيها قبل التحرير ولو بتظاهرة في مرجعيون التي ذهبتم لمزاحمة حلفائكم على مقعد نيابي فيها، بالاستناد إلى شعبية لم يعتب عليكم أحد لغيابها عن مواجهة احتلال يجمع اللبنانيون على توصيفه بالاحتلال وبالعدو، وهو الاحتلال الإسرائيلي، أو مثل محاولة المواءمة بين تجربتي بشير الجميل والعماد عون، على رغم كل ما يحيط بتجربة الأول من عناوين تتصل بمرحلة الاحتلال الإسرائيلي، وكان كافيا موقف التيار خلال عدوان تموز 2006 ليضع بين أيدي المؤمنين بكم حليفاً صادقاً كما كنتم خصماً شريفاً، حجة للدعوة للتفهم، لكن ذلك شيء والتصرف بفوقية التفوق بالوطنية على الغير، وادعاء احتكارها وتوزيع شهادات القبول والرفض فيها شيء آخر.

الأكيد أن التيار يحاسب خارجياً وداخلياً على مواقفه المتقدمة بوجه المشروع الأميركي والأطماع الإسرائيلية، ويجري الإعداد لتصفية حساب معه في الانتخابات المقبلة بهذه الخلفية، والأكيد أن نجاح أو فشل الذين يتربصون بالتيار على الكوع الانتخابي المقبل، ليس شأناً يخص التيار وحده، والأكيد أنه  من غير الانصاف أن تلقى مهمة إفشال هذه الخطة على عاتق التيار وحده، بينما تجند للمهمة مقدرات دولة عظمى بحجم أميركا، ودولة اقليمية عظمى بحجم السعودية، وما يملكان من مفاتيح وعلاقات وأموال وسطوة في الإعلام، وحيث يتحول حزب القوات اللبنانية المنافس التقليدي للتيار في ساحته المباشرة، مزيناً ببعض جمعيات مدنية، إلى محور للاستثمار المشترك لخصوم المقاومة وحضورها ومشروعها، لكن الأكيد أيضاً أن خطة التيار للفوز في هذه المعركة بعناوين التنافس مع خصومه على المرجعية الأكثر اخلاصاً للفكرة الطائفية ورموزها وشعاراتها، يضع هذه المعركة في زاوية صعبة، حيث تتسبب هذه الخطة بتفجير نزاعات طائفية تصعب السيطرة عليها، وتنتج مناخا تنمو فيه العصبيات الطائفية وتنفلت معه الغرائز، من بين صفوف التيار، وفي الصفوف المقابلة، وشيئاً فشيئا يضع التيار نفسه في زاوية حادة يصعب الفوز فيها بامكاناته، ويصعب على الراغبين بمساندته تقديم العون له.

منذ مدة بنى التيار خطابه على المواجهة مع حركة أمل ورئيس مجلس النواب نبيه بري، فبنى منظومة من العناوين لهذه المواجهة صارت مسلّمات عند جمهوره، ودفعته إلى مرحلة ثانية، هي التشكيك بصدقية التحالف مع حزب الله لأنه متمسك بتحالفه مع حركة أمل والرئيس نبيه بري، ثم دفعه الأمران إلى مرحلة ثالثة مضمونها اتهام حزب الله بالشراكة في محاصرته، ومن دون الحاجة إلى مناقشة سردية التيار للخصومة مع أمل، يكفي طرح السؤال حول أمرين، الأول هل يمكن للتيار أن يطالب جمهور بيئته  في أي انتخابات بأكثر مما أعطاه في الانتخابات السابقة، والثاني هل يمكن أن يطالب التيار حزب الله بأكثر من تحمل مسؤولية تعطيل الإستحقاق الدستوري ومخاصمة حليفه الأول المتمثل بالرئيس بري في عقر داره كرئيس لمجلس النواب لصالح المجيء بالعماد عون رئيساً، وبغض النظر عن خطاب محدودية الصلاحيات الرئاسية أو العجز عن تأمين الأغلبية اللازمة في الحكومة ومجلس النواب، يبقى السؤال الثالث، هل كان لدى التيار وهل لديه الآن جواب على خطة التحالفات، التي من دونها لن تكون السياسة إلا صفر نجاحات، فما هي خريطة  الطريق التي يمكن أن يقدمها رداً على أي سؤال، ماذا لومنحناكم تصويتنا، ومنعتم خطة كسركم واستعدتم ذات الوزن النيابي، وفزتم بالرئاسة مجدداً، وهذا سقف صعب المنال، فماذا ستفعلون غير ما فعلتم، ما دامت الصلاحيات هي الصلاحيات، وقواعد تشكل الأغلبية هي هي في الحكومة ومجلس النواب، وبصراحة قد تكون جارحة، أنتم تعلمون أن مفتاح الجواب في خارطة التحالفات تبدأ من التمسك بقوة بالحلف مع حزب الله، وتنتهي بالسعي إلى نقاش صريح ومكاشفة بعيدة عن المزايدات الكلامية لصناعة حلف ثابت مبني على المصالح والرؤى مع حركة أمل، ومن تمكن من تبرير تحالفه مع الرئيس سعد الحريري حتى خرج هو من التحالف، لا يملك أسباب للقول إنه لا يجد سبباً مبدئياً للتحالف مع أمل، وهو يعلم أن البديل هو مزيد من الفشل، وأنه من دون التحالفات  لا أمل بتحقيق تقدم، والتحالف مشقة، والتحالف ليس صفر مشكلات، والتحالف تباين وصراع، لكن تحت سقف الإقرار بالحاجة للتفاهم.

لمصلحة من القول إن من أسقط المجلس الدستوري منظومة يتصدرها الثنائي ويقودها رئيس مجلس النواب ضد رئيس الجمهورية، والمستفيد الوحيد هم الشامتون الذين يتربصون بالتيار على الكوع الطائفي والسياسي والانتخابي.

– اللهم أشهد إني بلغت!

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الفلسطيني يرفض “تشليح” اللبناني – زاهر أبو حمدة



لا يُعرف لماذا اختار جبران باسيل، مصطلح “تشليح” لوصف قرار وزير العمل اللبناني مصطفى بيرم، في ما يخص عمل الفلسطينيين ومكتومي القيد. صحيح أن المصطلح معترف به في المعجم العربي، لكنه يفيد بخلع الملابس وتعرية الجسد. بتاتاً، لا يهدف الفلسطينيون إلى تعرية أي لبناني ولا سيما في هذه الأجواء الباردة. لكن “اللاوعي الباسيلي” اعتاد “تشليح” الناس انسانيتهم وإلباس بعضهم العنصرية بكل أشكالها المقزّزة والبالية.

ومن دون الخوض في السياسة اللبنانية الداخلية، يكفي معرفة أن من “شلّح” أموال المودعين في المصارف ليسوا فلسطينيين، لا بل احتجزت (إذا لم نقل سُرقت) أموال الفلسطينيين. وللمفارقة الغريبة أنه بحجة السرية المصرفية ترفض البنوك الإفصاح عن أرقام وقيمة مدّخرات المودعين الفلسطينيين، ممن فقدوا جنى عمرهم. لكن التقديرات تشير إلى أكثر من مليار دولار أميركي.

وهناك احتمالان لموقف باسيل. الأول: أن فريقه لم يشرح له ماذا يعني قرار الوزير. هكذا ومن دون مقدمات اعتبر عمل الفلسطيني توطيناً مقنعاً وسرقة للوظائف من اللبنانيين. وهنا لا بد من توضيح الأمر، وهذا ما فعله بيرم لاحقاً. فالقرار ليس قانوناً وبالتالي لن يتغير الأمر وسيبقى الفلسطيني ممنوعاً من العمل في المهن الحرة وهي الأساسية. وهذا يحتاج تشريعاً في البرلمان وموافقة النقابات. أما الثاني: أنه يعرف التفاصيل كافة، واستغل الأمر لشد العصب المسيحي قبل الانتخابات والمزايدة على خصومه ورفع أسهمه السياسية والشعبية. وهنا، استغلال غير انساني لقضية إنسانية في المقام الأول. وفي الحالتين يخسر باسيل انسانيته مرة أخرى، فحقوق الانسان بغض النظر عن عرقه ودينه وأصله أهم من السجالات والمناكفات. ولذلك لا بد من سؤال باسيل: هل أنت انسان؟

وبالعودة إلى مسألة “التشليح”، وجب الذكر أن هذا الخطاب ليس جديداً، فهو مستمر منذ جيل النكبة الأول. وفي الخمسينيات، دفع تصاعد الحديث عن التأثيرات السلبية للوجود الفلسطيني في لبنان على الاقتصاد اللبناني، “اللجنة العربية العليا لفلسطين” بقيادة الحاج أمين الحسيني، إلى إصدار تقرير موثق بالأدلة بتاريخ 18 كانون الأول عام 1959 حول الأرصدة المالية الفلسطينية في لبنان. وذلك بهدف إقناع اللبنانيين أن الوجود الفلسطيني لا يشكل عبئاً على لبنان ولا يهدد اقتصاده ومصالحه، بل على العكس هو داعم حقيقي. يفيد التقرير بأن قيمة الأرصدة المالية الإجمالية المحولة لصالح الفلسطينيين في لبنان بلغت 195 مليون ليرة لبنانية، أي أعلى بثلاث مرات من موازنة الدولة اللبنانية أوائل الخمسينيات. استفاد لبنان من رؤوس الأموال والأصول اللاجئة، وتشكلت طبقة رجال الأعمال الفلسطينيين من ذوي الخبرة في التجارة والقطاع المصرفي والمالي والمحاسبة والسياحة والتأمين والهندسة والبناء والصناعة. ووفق بعض التقديرات لم تشكل هذه الطبقة أكثر من 5% من مجموع اللاجئين الفلسطينيين. أما اليوم، ووفقاً لأرقام منظمة العمل الدولية، فالحجم الاقصى للقوى العاملة الفلسطينية يقدر بنحو 45 ألف عامل فقط، يمثلون 3.5% من إجمالي قوة العمل في لبنان. وبالنسبة للمهن الحرة المنظمة بقوانين خاصة (المحامون والأطباء والمهندسون والصيادلة)، فإن عدد الفلسطينيين ذوي الاختصاص ليس كبيراً. ووفقاً لأحدث الدراسات الميدانية لمنظمة العمل الدولية الصادرة عام 2015، يبلغ عدد الأطباء الفلسطينيين 400 طبيب ينتسب نحو 239 منهم إلى الاتحاد الفلسطيني العام للأطباء والصيادلة ويعمل عدد لا بأس به منهم في عيادات الأونروا ومستشفيات جمعية “الهلال الأحمر الفلسطيني”، بينما يصل عدد المهندسين الفلسطينيين، إلى 1200 مهندس غالبيتهم يعملون خارج لبنان. هكذا أرقام لا يمكن أن تزاحم اللبناني، وبكل تأكيد لا يريد الفلسطيني المنافسة على الفرص إن سنحت له بقدر ما يتمنى بعض الإنسانية إذا توافرت.

جورج قرداحي: الاستقالة والتوقيت والضمانات

السبت 4 كانون أول 2021

 ناصر قنديل

منذ اليوم الأول للأزمة التي افتتحها القرار السعودي بوقف العلاقات الدبلوماسية والإقتصادية مع لبنان، وضعنا استقالة الوزير جورج قرداحي خيارا في سياق المعالجة لا ينتقص من شجاعة وفروسية موقف الوزير قرداحي، فقلنا في مقالة 1-11-2021 “حل الأزمة ليس عند الوزير جورج قرداحي، فلا تلقوا بأحمال كل هذا التخلف على كاهله، ويكفيه فخراً أنه أضاء على مظلومية اليمن، وأضاء على معاني السيادة، وسواء استقال لمنع أن تستقيل الحكومة وندخل في الفراغ والفوضى ويتهدد سلمنا الأهلي، أو بقي لأن الموقف سلاح، فقد قدم المثال على ما يجب أن يكون عليه مفهوم السيادة والحرية والاستقلال، التي تختزنها الأزمة الراهنة، والتي يكثر الآخرون استعمالها كسلع لا كقيم أيضاً، حتى صارت ثلاثية حرية سيادة استقلال، تذكرنا بثلاثية الفوال، توم وحامض وزيت”. والسبب لجعل الاستقالة خياراً يعود لمعادلة وضعها الوزير قرداحي بنفسه، وهي لا لاستقالة الاذعان واستقالة العقاب، وشاركه الحلفاء بإضافة “لا للإقالة” إليها، وربط الاستقالة بضمانات توظيفها لحل الأزمة، كنقطة انطلاق بقيت بعيدة طالما أخفق رئيس الحكومة في تقديمها، وجاءت بها زيارة الرئيس الفرنسي إيمانويل ماكرون إلى الرياض وطلبه للاستقالة كرسالة حسن نية لبنانية للحل، تتيح له أن يطلب رسالة مقابلة لها، لتقدم التوقيت الذي وجد فيه قرداحي اللحظة المناسبة، فما هي الحسابات؟

تقف فرنسا خلف بقاء الحكومة، بينما تطلب السعودية استقالتها وهي تعلم أن الفراغ هو البديل، وبالاستناد إلى الموقف الفرنسي وبنسبة معينة الموقف الأميركي الرافضين لإستقالة الحكومة، صمد رئيس الحكومة امام الضغوط السعودية التي طالبته بالإستقالة، ثم دعته لإقالة الوزير قرداحي، وبالإستناد إلى إستحالة إستقالة الحكومة، تمكن حلفاء الوزير قرداحي من تثبيت رفض الإقالة، بعدما كان رئيس الحكومة يقول الإقالة او استقالة الحكومة، والحلفاء وقرداحي لا يريدون تحمل مسؤولية اخذ البلد إلى الفراغ ولا يريدون هذا الفراغ، وقد بذلوا جهودا وقدموا تنازلات كي تكون هناك حكومة لإدراكهم أن مبدأ وجود حكومة في لبنان يستحق التضحية، وهكذا تمت صياغة معادلة توافق عليها قدراحي والحلفاء وترك له تقدير فرص السير بها، وهي ترجمة الجمع بين التمسك ببقاء الحكومة، والتمسك برفض الإذعان للإملاءات، وفق عبارة أطلقها قرداحي عنوانها، الضمانات، أي لا استقالة مجانية للاسترضاء، ولا تمسك بالمقعد الوزاري إذا أتيحت فرص للحلول، وكانت الاستقالة نقطة انطلاقها، وبات التمسك بعدم الاستقالة إقفالاً لباب الحل وفتحاً لباب استقالة الحكومة.

قد لا ينجح الرئيس الفرنسي في فتح باب الحل مع السعودية، لكن تمسك الوزير قرداحي بعدم الاستقالة كان سيتم تحميله مسؤولية هذا الفشل، سواء من قبل الرئيس الفرنسي أو من قبل رئيس الحكومة، ومعهما جزء كبير من اللبنانيين في السياسة والمجتمع، سيخرجون جميعاً للقول إن حزب الله منع قرداحي من الإستقالة ودفع بلبنان إلى الخراب، وسيكون خيار لعب ورقة استقالة الحكومة تحت شعار تفادي المزيد من إجراءات الغضب السعودي وارداً، أما وأن الرئيس الفرنسي أخذ على عاتقه أن يجلب مقابل الاستقالة خطوة مشابهة على طريق حل الأزمة تفتح الباب لحوار حول الخلافات أو المشكلات العالقة، فما فعله قرداحي هو وضع الأمور بين فرضيتي، نجاح ماكرون، وبالتالي تكون الاستقالة قد أدت مهمتها في فتح الطريق لإنهاء الأزمة، وهذا هو مفهوم المسؤولية الوطنية  الذي لم يحد عنه قرداحي، أو فشل ماكرون، وتكون الاستقالة قطعت الطريق على تحميل قرداحي وحلفائه مسؤولية هذا الفشل، وتظهير المسؤولية السعودية عن إفشال مساعي الرئيس الفرنسي، وما ينتج عن ذلك من تعزيز لعناصر بقاء الحكومة وقطع طريق استقالتها، وإسقاط منطق سحب الذرائع بدليل أن الذريعة الرئيسية تم سحبها ولم يتغير شيء.

الذين ينتقدون الوزير قرداحي وحلفائه في قرار الاستقالة الذي اتخذه ودعموه، ويحاسبونه بمعايير السيادة والكرامة والعنفوان، التي رافقت رفضه للاستقالة، عليهم أن يتخيلوا ما سيحدث لو لم تتم الاستقالة، وتم تصوير الأمور وفق صورة تقول إن كل شيء كان جاهزاً لعودة العلاقات واستئناف الصادرات اللبنانية ووقف أي إجراءات عدائية أخرى، لو جاء الرئيس الفرنسي وقد سبقته استقالة الوزير قرداحي كعلامة حسن نية لبنانية طلبتها السعودية، وأن عدم حدوث ذلك يؤكد نوايا لبنانية سلبية، ولذلك تتفهم فرنسا المزيد من الاجراءات السعودية وليس فقط البقاء على الاجراءات السابقة، وبالتوازي سحب الغطاء لبقاء الحكومة، وهو أمر كاف ليعود رئيس الحكومة لخيار استقالة حكومته، وتصعيد الوضع الداخلي على قاعدة استعصاء تشكيل حكومة جديدة، ورفع وتيرة التصعيد المذهبي، في ظل وضع صعب اقتصادياً وأمنياً تعيشه المناطق اللبنانية كافة، وعندها سيخرج الكثيرون يوجهون الإتهام إلى قرداحي والحلفاء بالتسبب بالخراب.

لم يخطئ الوزير قرداحي باستقالته أمس كما لم يخطئ من قبل برفضها، وترجم في المرتين مفهوم السيادة بصفتها القرار الوطني النابع من حساب المصلحة الوطنية لا الاستجابة لإملاءات خارجية.

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Hezbollah MP Hits back at Geagea, Says Feels ‘Pity’ for Him

December 1, 2021

Member of Hezbollah’s Loyalty to Resistance bloc MP Ibrahim Mousawi hit back at accusations made by Head of Lebanese Forces party Samir Geagea that Hezbollah is seeking to delay parliamentary elections.

In a statement late Tuesday, MP Mousawi stressed that Hezbollah’s stance towards date of elections in Lebanon is clear and doubtless, noting that any accusation in this regard is fabricated and baseless.

“Such claims aim at instigation and elector mobilization in a bid to gain more votes,” MP Mousawi said in remarks carried by Al-Manar.

“Hezbollah, who has set his strategy based on great national and solid principles, sees in the election a chance for the Lebanese people to renew the political life and to freely choose their representatives at the Parliament as part of the democratic system ensured by the Constitution,” the Lebanese lawmaker stated.

“On the contrary, others’ policies don’t adopt national and solid principles, and deal temporarily with the issues and according to their interests. Those wait for the elections, hoping to turn the tables,” Mousawi said, stressing that those will “sooner or later discover that they are deluded.”

“We feel pity for those people, as we pray for them to be on the right way in order to preserve our country from collapse,” the Hezbollah MP concluded his statement.

Source: Al-Manar English Website

 ارتباك أميركي أمام خياري الحرب الأهلية والانتخابات

ناصر قنديل

على الطاولة الأميركية تحت عنوان محاصرة حزب الله، خياران رئيسيان غير الاستسلام والتأقلم والتساكن، الأول يشجعه الإسرائيليون وعنوانه تصعيد مناخات الضغط الاقتصادي والمالي والسياسي على لبنان وصولاً لرفع منسوب الاحتقان والفوضى، تمهيداً لتفجير الوضع الطائفي بوجه حزب الله، أملاً بأن هذا سيعني استنزاف الحزب في الحرب الداخلية، وتوفير فرص مؤاتية لشن حرب إسرائيلية على الحزب، أما الخيار الثاني الذي تشجعه لوبيات في الكونغرس والسفارة الأميركية في بيروت، فعنوانه الاستثمار على مناوئي الحزب المحليين، سواء المعارضة الحزبية أو التقليدية، أو المعارضة التي تمثلها جمعيات المجتمع المدني التي تلوذ بالسفارة أو سفارات الدول الصديقة لواشنطن، لتوفير مناخات منسقة للفوز بعدد وافر من المقاعد الانتخابية يعيد تشكيل المشهد النيابي تحت عنوان نقل الغالبية من يد الحزب وحلفائه إلى يد الخصوم.

الإشكالية التي يطرحها خيار التفجير الطائفي تنطلق من ثلاثة عناصر، الأول استحالة الجمع بينها وبين الحفاظ على الجيش اللبناني وفاعليته ووحدته، فالتفجير الطائفي يستدعي تحييد الجيش وتهميشه على الأقل، وهو ما لا يمكن أن يستمر في ظروف استقطاب طائفي حاد كما تقول التجارب السابقة في لبنان، إذ سرعان ما تنتقل الانقسامات الطائفية لتصيب بنية الجيش، بينما الحفاظ على الجيش ووحدته وتقدمه للصفوف فيستدعي قيامه بمهمة التصدي لمخاطر التفجير وقمع مسببيه، الذين لن يكون الحزب بينهم، في ظل سياسة ثابتة للحزب بأن يفعل المستحيل لتفادي التورط في أي تفجير طائفي، وأن يكون آخر الداخلين فيه إذا فرضت عليه واستحالت سبل صده، وهنا يظهر العنصر الثاني فالمخاطرة بخسارة الجيش تعني مخاطرة بخسارة أغلب الجغرافيا اللبنانية وقبول الاكتفاء ببعض الجغرافيا التي تسيطر عليها الميليشيات المساندة، والتي لن تزيد على ربع مساحة لبنان، ولن يكون مضموناً ثباتها وصمودها في ظل موازين قوى معلوم وضعها، أما العنصر الثالث فهو التساؤل عما إذا كان التفجير الطائفي سيوفر فرصة حرب إسرائيلية، قال الإسرائيليون إنها ستتوافر من انخراط حزب الله في الحرب السورية، واكتشفوا أنه قادر على تلبية مقتضيات مشاركته فيها، بالتوازي مع الجاهزية لمواجهة فرضيات الحرب الإسرائيلية، وبالمقارنة ليس ثمة ما يقول أن الوضع سيكون مختلفاً.

الرهان على الانتخابات النيابية يبقى نظرياً حتى الدخول في التفاصيل، حيث تظهر أولى النتائج باستحالة إحداث اختراق في ساحة تحالف ثنائي حركة أمل وحزب الله مع وجود حاصل مرتفع لحجز أي مقعد نيابي في دوائر البقاع والجنوب، بينما في الساحات الطائفية الأخرى فسيكون أي تقدم لمرشحي الجماعات الجديدة المدعومة أميركياً على حساب الحلفاء التقليديين في هذه الساحات، خصوصاً، فزعزعة تيار المستقبل على سبيل المثال والرهان على وراثته مع تأثير مسار الضغط السعودي عليه، واحتمالات عزوف رئيسه عن الترشيح، ستعني نشوء فراغ ستتسابق قوى كثيرة على ملئه، سينال منه جماعة السفارة نسبة، وينال سواهم نسبة، وسيكون لحلفاء حزب الله نسبة، وربما يصح الشيء نفسه في ساحة الحزب التقدمي الاشتراكي بنسبة أقل، بحيث يصير الصراع محصوراً في الساحة المسيحية، حيث تفرض الدوائر الانتخابية نتائج من نوع استحالة تحقيق ما يزيد على عدد النواب المستقيلين بأكثر من ثلاثة إلى أربعة مقاعد في أحسن الأحوال، فدوائر المتن وكسروان وبيروت الأولى وزغرتا إهدن بشري البترون، لا تتيح رهانات على نيل المزيد، بل تخلق تصادمات بين من يفترض أنهم الحلفاء في المعركة بوجه الحزب، والحصيلة ستكون مجموعة أقليات لا غالبية فيها، بل أقلية كبرى يمثلها الثنائي تشكل النواة الأشد صلابة بين التكتلات النيابية، توازيها نواة ثانية تضم حزب الله ونواب التيار الوطني الحر، وكل من الكتلتين سيتشكل حولها إطار من تحالفات، يقف مقابلها عدد من الكتل الوسطى والصغيرة، مع استحالة تشكيل جبهة موحدة بين مكوناتها، بما يعيد إنتاج مشهد شبيه بالمشهد النيابي الحالي.

مقابل الخيارين الإشكاليين المطروحين على الطاولة، ثمة خيار ثالث يتقدم منذ تجربة سفن كسر الحصار، عنوانه التساكن والتأقلم، وهو خيار محكوم بخلفية المسار الذي رسمه قرار الانسحاب من أفغانستان، وما سترسمه تطورات المنطقة خلال الشهور المقبلة، سواء في سورية أو اليمن، أو في العلاقة مع إيران.

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Full Speech of Sayyed Nasrallah on the Birth Anniv. of Prophet Muhammad (PBUH)

Nov 19, 2021

Full Speech of Sayyed Nasrallah on the Birth Anniv. of Prophet Muhammad (PBUH)

Translated by Staff, Hezbollah Media Relations

Speech of Hezbollah’s Secretary General His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah tackling a range of political developments on the occasion of the birth anniversary of Prophet Muhammad [PBUH] and his grandson Imam Jaafar Sadiq [AS], and the Muslim Unity Week. 

I seek refuge in Allah from the accursed Satan. In the name of Allah the Most Gracious the Merciful. Praise be to Allah, Lord of the Worlds, and prayers and peace be upon our Master and Prophet, the Seal of Prophets, Abi al-Qassem Muhammad Bin Abdullah and his good and pure household and his good and chosen companions and all the prophets and messengers.

May the peace, mercy, and blessings of God be upon you all.

In the coming days, God willing, we will welcome a very dear, precious, and great occasion, which is the anniversary of the birth of the Greatest Messenger of God, the Seal of the Prophets, and the Master of Messengers, Muhammad bin Abdullah [PBUH]. I congratulate all Muslims in the world and all Lebanese on this great and solemn occasion in advance. God willing, on this occasion, we will hold a proper and appropriate celebration in a few days, and therefore, I will leave talking about the celebrant  and the occasion itself until then.

With regard to the topics, I divided them into two part. One part I will talk about today, and the second I will talk about it, God willing,  during that celebration.

I will begin with tonight’s topics. I will speak about the first topic as briefly as possible, appropriate, and unobtrusive.

1- The elections:

The country today is busy preparing for the electoral law, the dates of the elections, the administrative procedures related to the elections, and the natural prelude to entering the stage of the electoral atmosphere as well as having the elections on time.

Regarding the elections, I want to emphasize several points:

i- Holding the elections on time

We have already talked about this and emphasized it on more than one occasion. In any case, there still remain those who try to spread confusion by blaming a certain party, including us sometimes, of planning to extend and postpone the elections, etc. This is all baseless talk. We affirm, insist, and call for the elections to be held on time within the constitutional deadline. To be fair and according to our follow-up with all the parliamentary blocs, parties, and political forces, we believe that no one – so as not to make baseless accusations like some opponents do – whether implicitly or openly is planning or preparing to push matters towards the postponement of the parliamentary elections and the extension of the current Parliament. Therefore, let us put this issue behind us and let everyone engage in holding the parliamentary elections on time, and we are certainly one of those.

ii- The expatriate vote

We agreed to the current law, which was voted on in 2018 and followed in the 2018 elections, as a result of the discussions, and in all sincerity, taking our allies into account. We agreed to a number of things in that law. In the joint parliamentary committees, whether formally or informally, a discussion took place some time ago, and some parliamentary blocs asked to reconsider or demanded a reconsideration. Some of our deputies expressed a position based on an existing reality. This same discussion existed in 2018 and became more intense at the time than it was in the past. This issue was the expatriate vote.

Today, when we want to prepare electoral campaigns or for people who want to run for office or be elected, there is no equal opportunity, whether in conducting electoral campaigns, in candidacy, or even by going to the polls to exercise free elections, specifically with Hezbollah. There will be other political forces whose situation may be less sensitive, but Hezbollah’s situation abroad, in some European countries, in North America, in the Gulf, and some other Arab countries is known. There is no possibility for preparing an electoral campaign, candidacy, or elections. In fact, this is a point of appeal, and we had mentioned to our allies that with regard to Hezbollah, we would not submit an appeal.

But someone can file an appeal regarding the elections in terms of unequal opportunities. The brothers raised the issue from this angle, and an atmosphere emerged in the country that there were those who wanted to prevent the expatriates from voting. Extensive debates were held over this and there was no problem. We discussed the issue once again and came up with the following conclusion. It was expressed by our deputies at the last meeting of the joint committees. But I’d like to mention it here to close discussions on it.

We, once again, discussed and evaluated it. This is what we had to say. Regardless of how many countries in which expatriates or residents will take part in the parliamentary elections – they usually participate in presidential elections – and if there are countries that participate in parliamentary elections, this may be present and perhaps their number may be few, but in any case, as long as the injustice befalls specifically us, we do not have a problem. 

This means that we, Hezbollah specifically, will be oppressed. We will not be allowed abroad or have the right to campaign, announce candidacy, or the freedom to vote. This even applies to our supporters. But as long as the injustice pertains to us and there is a national interest and it allows the Lebanese residing outside Lebanese to feel that they are partners and bear responsibility, we have no problem with that. We will overlook this observation, and that is why our brothers amended and said that we support the principle of expatriate voting, in principle. We divided the issue.

Now, there is a detail that whether the expatriates or those residing outside the Lebanese territories will vote according to the constituencies in Lebanon or elect the six representatives that are said to be allocated for the elections abroad. If they are going to vote according to the constituencies in Lebanese, we have no problem with that. And if voting on the six representatives will be confirmed, we are open to discussions when it’ll be discussed in Parliament. However, if the topic is not discussed, there is a law. So, work according to the law. Hence, we consider this matter closed.

And we hope, God willing, from our brothers, our expatriates and people residing outside the Lebanese territories to register and take part in the elections. They are welcome, and we hope that they will have the real opportunity to frankly express their opinion.

iii- Voting at the age of 18

With regard to the issue of [voting at] the age of 18, I honestly tell all the Lebanese people and young people between the age of 18 and 21 that this matter is only raised to be used locally. It is always raised at a time close to deadlines, and time does not help. Although it was brought up at a time way ahead of deadlines, something strange happened. Since 1992 when we first took part in the parliamentary elections, we’ve been known to have strongly supported giving young people at the age of 18 the right to vote.

Whenever you talk with political forces, you find that everyone is in favor. Yet, you go to the Parliament and it gets dropped. There is something strange in this country. We not only raised this in our speeches, slogans, and political and electoral programs, but we also seriously worked and fought hard for it. In March 2009, the Loyalty to the Resistance bloc proposed a constitutional amendment law to reduce the voting age to 18 since this needs a constitutional amendment. In March 2009, it was voted unanimously. This was before the 2009 elections. The constitutional amendment needs two-thirds of the members of the parliament. The government also voted unanimously on this proposal. It was returned to the parliament after the parliamentary elections in the February 2010 session. The session was attended by more than 100 deputies, out of which only 34 deputies voted on the project, mainly the Amal Movement, Hezbollah, and some other blocs. The rest of the blocs abstained, and it fell through. There is really something strange about this country.

If you now make an opinion poll for the parliamentary blocs and the political forces, they all tell you: yes, this is their natural right, and they must elect, etc. Of course, I heard a strange two days ago saying that young people need to be prepared and educated. What is this talk!

In Lebanese, children as young as five or six years old talk politics! You are talking about 18-year-olds. These need educating, preparation, school programs!!! What is this nonsense?!

Anyway, we once again call, the expatriates have the right to vote. All people should demand this right and respect it. If they are wronged somewhere like us, let us go beyond this oppression. With regard to the issue of voting at the age of 18, there is no injustice to anyone. If this right is not given, this is injustice to all Lebanese youth who are being deprived of the right to participate in the parliamentary elections only for purely partisan and personal reasons, not for national or real reasons..

iv- The MegaCenter

Also, related to the elections is the MegaCenter. We have no problem so that no one later says that Hezbollah is preventing this from happening. From now, we do not have a problem. You want to adopt the megacenter, go ahead. You don’t want the megacenter, also go ahead. You want to adopt the magnetic card, we don’t mind. Whether the Ministry of the Interior wants to adopt it or not, let it go ahead. What do you want us to vote with? The identification card? We’ll use it to vote. An excerpt of the civil registry? We’ll use it to vote. We’ll use whatever you want. We do not have a problem. Just hold the elections on time and don’t come up with excuses for not holding the elections on their constitutional dates. The rest of the matters related to the elections, nominations, alliances, the electoral program, and reading the electoral scene will be discussed at their right time, God willing.

2- The electricity file:

In fact, I should have started talking about this file, but I deliberately did not start with it because this file contains some annoyance. Hence, I opted  to start with the elections.

In the past few days, they told the Lebanese that fuel has run out, the factories will stop working, and the country will go into complete darkness. Save us. What should we do? Now, they’ve found a temporary solution. They found some with the Lebanese army, and the army instructed to take advantage of what it has to overcome this stage. Of course, We thank the leadership of the Lebanese army for this kind humanitarian step.

But the question remains: Today, this issue should be an absolute priority for the current government. Basically, when the cry came out, it was necessary – this is our personal suggestion – that the government hold an extraordinary session, not a two- or three-hour session, but one that remains from dawn to dusk to find a solution. What does it mean that the country has entered complete darkness? This does not only mean that the country is in complete darkness because of power outage, the country is in a state of clinical death because here we are talking about hospitals, cooperatives, everything having no electricity. Despite this, what has been happening in the country? Instead of calling for a serious, radical, and real treatment, as usual, the Lebanese blamed each other for being responsible, insulted and cursed each other, and insulted one another. All of this does not bring electricity.

Eventually, responsibilities must be determined. But usually in the prevailing Lebanese way, people enter the labyrinth, with more grudges, insults, and swearing emerge. And you’ve seen social media in the past two days.

Since the government holds its session every Wednesday, the priority on the table must be the issue of electricity. What I want to call for tonight is for you to see what you want to do regarding electricity. Find a solution or put the country on the path to a solution, not that pump it with painkillers, i.e., take an advance from the central bank and buy fuel with it for power plants to generate electricity for a few hours. Does this solve the problem? How many days and weeks will this last? The issue needs a radical solution. There are contracts that exist. Make up your mind, say yes or no, but address the issue in any way.

Today, a sum of money was sent to the Lebanese government – the Lebanese state. One billion and one hundred million dollars is in the hands of the Lebanese government. If we want to speak as a matter of absolute priority, take advantage of this amount or part of it and primarily and radically address the issue of electricity – building new power plants, addressing the problem of existing plants. The matter is in your hands. There are many offers from various countries in the world, from the East and the West. You do not want from the East, from the West, then, unless there is an American veto.

If the Americans are forbidding you, tell the Lebanese people frankly: O Lebanese people, we are terrified and unable to bring in European companies because the Americans will be angry with us and have forbidden us from doing so.

In this way the people will express their opinions – whether or not they’d like to live in darkness and in humiliation with no electricity, as the Lebanese used to live in humiliation with the lack of gasoline and diesel. We’ll act depending on the outcome. I know, for example, in Iraq – this is a common and well-known thing there – that the Iraqis have an electricity problem. When they tried to reach an understanding with some European countries, the Americans intervened forcefully and prevented them. So, is there a veto here in Lebanon, an American veto preventing that?

As for the Iranians, there was an old offer. Today, there is a new offer. Two days ago, when His Excellency the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Iran was in Beirut, he reconfirmed that we are ready to build two plants and provide a certain, large, and respectable quantity. Respond to him.

Ask for an exception since America is your friend. To us, they are our enemy, and we expect anything from our enemies. But they are your friends and allies. You trust them and consider them moral and humanitarian who possess human values and law. Ask them for an exception.

Iraq got an exception. Afghanistan under the rule of the Ghani government had an exception – it used to import many things from Iran. Other neighboring countries have exceptions. You ask for an exception. I learned a rather funny thing that was in fact published in the media – when one Lebanese official was by told by the Iranian foreign minister to ask for an exception as the other countries, the official replied to him, saying: I hope you will ask for the exception. It’s a very funny thing. Imagine a Lebanese official telling the Iranians who have enmity with the Americans to do so. There is an ongoing war between them and the Americans, and I him: you ask the Americans for an exception so that you can build us, for example, power plants, or so you  can sell us fuel for the power plants, or so you can sell us gasoline or diesel. What a way of taking responsibility? 

Anyway, regarding this issue along with all the people, we will raise the voice. The government, the President of the Republic, and the Prime Minister must determine the agenda. But we are among the people who have the right to demand that electricity be at the top of the agenda, or they should allocate an emergency and urgent special session and work for a real radical treatment for this issue. If the issue remains a matter of throwing accusations and scoring points and who disrupted, we will get nowhere.

Hezbollah or others may have raised this suspicion in the past. For the first time, I would like to raise a suspicion. I’m one of those people who has a feeling that somewhere there might be a certain game. Let me say how. It’s the same with what happened gasoline, diesel, and food stuff. The state knows that at some point it will have to lift the subsidies. Everyone tells you that there is no solution except the International Monetary Fund, and the IMF will ask for the subsidies to be lifted, and no one dares to take the responsibility of lifting the subsidy. 

They’ll let the people fight, race to cooperatives, and queue at gas stations for petrol, diesel, etc. After a month, two, or three, they’ll start shooting each other, cursing one another, and wielding knives at each other. Then, they will call for the subsidies to be lifted just to be saved and accept the fact that the price of gasoline is 500,000LBP. 

If the subsidies are lifted, the problem of the humiliating queues will be solved. Therefore, if you notice and you can go back to the media when we saw the humiliating queues, the voices called for the subsidies to be lifted. This action was serving this. Whether this was intentional and planned or not needs to be verified.

When talking about the subject of electricity, privatization and selling some state assets and some public sectors, including the electricity sector, are always mentioned. The electricity sector is always being eyed for privatization.

There is a fear I would like to raise today. I do not want to accuse anyone. It is very unclear to me, to be honest, that somewhere – within the government or outside it or whether they belong to the opposition or not – they want the electricity sector in Lebanon to collapse. Then, the state would be helpless and unable to solve the problem. Hence, there would be no solution except through privatization. Then, the Lebanese people would not want to live in darkness, so they’d demand to solve this problem with privatization. This is the real fear. We must pay attention to this subject. 

From this subject, I will delve into the third point which is related to diesel, gasoline, and the like. I once again make appeal to the various political forces and leaders in Lebanon – brothers, go and check with your allies and friends. I repeat and say that whatever we are capable of doing with our allies and friends, we will do. What can Iran do more than this? They are already telling you that they are prepared to sell you gasoline, diesel, and fuel and build power plants and metro stations. They want to cooperate with you and offer you facilities. This is a solution. 

The Syrians told you they do not have a problem. Bring Egyptian gas and electricity from Jordan. I will offer you the facilities you want. If there is anything else, I am at your service as well. These are our allies. 

As for your allies, we have not seen them do anything. You have not done anything. Talk to someone to make you an exception. Talk to someone to help the Lebanese. If your allies told you that Hezbollah is part of the Lebanese people, then exclude Hezbollah and bring help for the rest of the Lebanese areas. Act responsibly, not maliciously.

Until now, we still hear that, for example, they brought diesel from Iran. They brought it across the border into Syria, so 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. We hear it every other Sunday, etc. Here is another example of the level of responsibility in the country. A politician reached a conclusion that the power cut stated happening when diesel was brought in from Iran as the power plants broke down. You all know. It is all known. He did not know that the state’s electricity plants run on fuel, and what was brought from Iran was diesel. There is no relation between diesel, fuel, and electricity plants. In any case, this is the level that exists in the country.

This is a call for the last time. Budge a little. Move a little, and don’t be malicious. What is your main role other than criticizing, insulting, and accusing? Do something positive for your people and your country.

3- Gasoline and diesel:

I moved to the third topic, in which I will talk about what happened with us and what will happen concerning diesel and gasoline.

So far, we consider ourselves still in the first phase. Of course, a number of ships have arrived so far, and we are gradually moving them to Lebanon. We consider that the first phase will continue until the end of October. During the first phase, we did two things, and we will continue with them.

The first thing we said is that there is a group that we will gift them diesel for a month and a group that we will sell diesel to. We did not put the diesel at the stations and said, “People, please. Who wants to buy can come.” Meaning that we are doing more than the goal. We said that the goal is to secure this material for these pressing and urgent cases, and we do not want to compete or block the way for companies and stations that sell diesel. In the end, we will give to a group and the rest can buy from the stations. By doing so, we are not cutting off people’s livelihood. We adopted this approach, and we will indeed continue until the end of October as a first phase.

Within this first phase, there are two points I would like to add. 

1- We had announced a gift or donation for a group for a period of one month. That period has ended. There is a quantity that has arrived and another that is on the way, and it will reach them, God willing. What I would like to announce today is that we will renew this gift. This gift is for the same group and will be for an additional month, for a second month.

I will again mention the institutions belonging to this group: government hospitals, nursing homes, orphanages, centers for people with special needs, official water institutions, water wells belonging to municipalities, provided they are a poor municipalities, and fire brigades in the Civil Defense and the Lebanese Red Cross. After the end of the first month, I announce today that we will provide the quantity they need from this material as a gift and assistance, God willing, for a second month.

2- Regarding the groups, I would like to announce that this material would also be sold to the fishermen. This addition comes following many revisions that have been made. We’ve already started and not just starting. This happened in the last period. The fishermen has been added to the segments to which this material can be sold to. The same institutions that we talked about before will remain – private hospitals, pharmaceutical laboratories, mills, bakeries, etc. We will complete the first phase by working with the same [entities] we worked with last month.

When we reach the second phase, which starts from the beginning of November, we will add heating for families. We and our brothers are studying the standards because the most important thing is to abide by the standards. During the past month, there were cases that included people not belonging to the group that this material can be sold to contacted us. These people are very dear to us and we love to be of service to them. However, we had a serious commitment to the standards and the groups. If we did not abide, it will be chaotic, and, therefore, we would not be able to serve the groups that we considered a priority.

Today, we have the issue of heating that needs to be studied, and it is a very big topic. For example, among the entities that it will be sold to are private hospitals, bakeries, mills, laboratories, etc. We considered that establishments and companies operating generators are the largest segment, and they, in fact, are the ones that need the largest amount. But when we bring in the issue of heating, there is no comparison because here you are talking about Lebanese families in areas where there is cold and frost.

This requires different controls, standards, and a distribution mechanism that we are studying. God willing, before the beginning of November, we will talk about this issue, I or one of my brothers, and it will be announced in detail. Also because of winter, we may add new entities. This, too, is being evaluated and studied – first of all because of the high demand that happened. The volume of requests in all Lebanese regions was very large. I’d say it was greater than expected, yes, greater than expected. It is very large in all areas. This is on the one hand.

On the other hand, winter season is coming, and of course, the demand for diesel will increase exponentially – we had made diesel a priority. This means that we have decided to continue with diesel being the priority. We postponed bringing gasoline. Even if we get gasoline, we will exchange it for diesel with the merchants because the priority now is to provide the fuel oil in the way that it is secure. Thank God, now, in one way or another, the queues of humiliation are over. Gasoline is available at the stations, albeit at a high price. Our main concern was to get rid of the queues of humiliation. Now, these queues are over. Gasoline is available. We do not believe now, as a result of the large file, that we should work on all the entities. We have to focus our priority on diesel, especially since we are a few weeks away from winter season.

I will conclude this whole file. We heard people say, leave the Lebanese state buy its own gasoline and diesel from Iran. We support this talk. This is our demand. Let the Lebanese government ask the Americans for an exception, while the Lebanese companies buy. We guarantee that they will get facilities from Iran to buy diesel, gasoline, and fuel from Iran, etc. At that point, we will withdraw from this file. We will leave the file completely. We will not buy, nor bring ships, nor transport to Baniyas, nor bring from Baniyas to Baalbek. We will leave the matter completely. Go ahead, take responsibility. Open this door. This only needs some courage and boldness. Many countries neighboring Iran have exceptions – exceptions in buying gasoline, diesel, oil derivatives, and many other materials. Go ahead, work on this matter. This is one of the doors – you consider that we are violating sovereignty. Good, then help us so that we do not violate sovereignty. Go ahead, ask for an exception and open this door.

4- The Beirut Port [blast] investigation:

I would like to recall what I used to say since the beginning – we want and support the investigation. I honestly say and tell you that even if the families of the martyrs and the wounded abandoned the investigation, we, Hezbollah, will not abandon the investigation. We consider ourselves among those who were affected not only in terms of martyrs, wounded, and homes, but we were also affected morally, politically, and media wise.
Taking humanitarian considerations towards the families of the martyrs, we want the truth and accountability. Politically and morally, we, as Hezbollah, want the truth and we want accountability. There is no discussion regarding this topic. It is not cutting of the road in front of the investigation nor is it to end or cancel the file. Never. Whoever says this is unfair. We want to reach a result. What is really required is justice. What the former judge did is clear. He was biased and politicized. We spoke loudly about this and gave advise. The man rose and asked with legitimate suspicion and left. The man made a legitimate request and left. However, instead of benefiting from all the mistakes and the observations made to the previous judge, the current judge continued with the same mistakes. He ignored these remarks and did worse. The current judge’s work is politically motivated and biased. His work is being politicized and has nothing to do with the truth and justice.

Before I conclude, I would like to address the families of the martyrs – if you expect to uncover the truth with this judge, you will not. If you expect that this judge will bring you justice, even at the level of an indictment, you will not get it. The work of this judge is politically motivated. He is exploiting the blood of the martyrs, the wounded, the tragedy, and the calamity to serve political goals and political targeting.

1- We previously talked about the evidence, but now I would like to highlight the issue more because we have reached a point that can no longer be tolerated.

Let us simply talk logically. Is this interference in the affairs of the judiciary? But first off, tell me this is a judiciary so that I can agree with you whether this is interference or not. This is not a judiciary. This is a politically-motivated job. As long as it is a politically-motivated job, allow me to say a couple of words. What do science and justice say? They say there was an explosion. Hence, look for the responsibilities. This is a problem that I will return to shortly.

I would like to ask the current judge – disregard the previous judge. Since the arrival of the ammonium nitrate ship to Lebanon’s Beirut Port to Lebanon, there have been two presidents: President Michel Suleiman and His Excellency President Michel Aoun. His Excellency, President Michel Aoun has said on more than one occasion – a transparent man – “I knew on this day and I followed up this way. I am ready for the judge to come and listen to me.” 

Did you listen to him? You are a judge who works as the judiciary, did you listen to His Excellency the President and took his statement? He is the one telling to go to him. What are you afraid of?

Did you ask President Michel Suleiman? Did you listen to him? did you ask him – you were the president of the republic when this ship came and entered, did you know? What did you do? Regardless of whether he was responsible or not. You did not ask him, and you did not listen to His Excellency the President even though he invited you. 

Since the day the ship entered Lebanon in November 2013, there have been multiple prime ministers. You, the judge, quickly belittled Prime Minister Hassan Diab and thought you can accuse him, summon him, etc.

One question. Did you ask former heads of government? Did you listen to them? I’m not telling you to summon them. Did you go to them? Did you sit with them? Did you ask them even a question about their knowledge of the subject? What did they do if they had knowledge? Were they responsible or not? You did not do any of this. You quickly went to Prime Minister Hassan Diab. Can you tell me that the explosion took place during the premiership of PM Hassan Diab? Why did you go after the former ministers and not the current ministers? I am not defending people who are our friends only. Among them are our friends and those who are not our friends. The people I’m telling you to investigate include some of our friends. Why did you not ask the ministers in the current government who were in office when the explosion occurred? Instead, you went to the former ministers. Why not all the former ministers? Did you ask all the finance ministers? Did you summon them all and investigated with them? Did you investigate and ask the ministers of works who were in office in November 2013? The current Minister of Works is also our friend. The ministers of interior who were in office in November 2013 until today is also our friend. The ministers of defense as well as the ministers of finance and works are also the ministers of guardianship. Did you investigate with the ministers of defense? Non, you didn’t. Did you ask the ministers of justice? No, you didn’t. Did you ask all the heads of the security and military services? No, you did not. I tell you no because they really did not ask them. he asked some of them, but not all of them. What do they call this? You are going after specific agencies, specific ministers, and a specific prime minister is clearly [political] targeting. Does the issue need a little understanding in order to see that there is clearly targeting? There is political targeting. This is the first point. We’ve spoken about this in the past. We also warned you. Do not be biased and politicized. Or else, we will demand you leave. Then he continues working as if nothing happened. On the contrary, he rose even more and behaved as if he was the ruler with regard to this file. This is the first point.

2- The main subject in the explosion: 

The whole thing is incomprehensible. Yet, you skipped it. Basically, it is like what many Lebanese say. I am not saying anything new. The basic principle, O honorable judicial investigator, is that you go and tell the families of the martyrs before you incite them against the politicians. You have to tell these families that you sit with every other day who brought the ship, who let the ship dock, who gave permission, who left the materials in hangar 12, and who gave approval. You are not doing any of these. You are tackling another matter which comes in second place which is negligence. You are making a big deal out of this for settling political scores. O brother, tell the Lebanese people. If you don’t want to tell the Lebanese people, at least tell the families of the martyrs. And you, our people and our loved ones, the families of the martyrs, go and demand. This is your right to demand. Ask him how your children were killed? You, an investigative judge, do not want to tell them because this does not serve the politicization that you are working on. So, what did you turn to? To negligence. You are making a bigger deal out of negligence – the one who is charged with negligence should receive the most severe penalties.

I’m not asking for anything. I am only asking why he is disregarding and neglecting the first part of the issue. Why is the truth not told to the Lebanese? The judicial secrecy is the issue. It is not about someone killing another person. This is a catastrophe that has befell the country, and the country is heading towards a catastrophe if this judge continues working in this way. Therefore, the matter needs a different approach.

3- Bias:

The judges, who were involved and whose responsibility wss greater than that of the presidents of the republic, are responsible. I do not know. I am not a judge to rule on this matter. The responsibility of judges is greater than that of heads of government, ministers, and heads of the security services because the judges are the ones who allowed this material to enter and to be stored. The rest are all procedural. The two judges or the judges are the first to be responsible. O families of the martyrs, ask this judge. Ask him about those judges whose responsibility is unquestionable.

There might be a discussion about the responsibility of the prime minister, a specific minister, and the security apparatus. But there is no discussion that these judges are responsible. What did you do to them? You did nothing. You filed a lawsuit against them in court, the High Judicial Council and the Discriminatory Public Prosecution, and to appoint a special court. Great! You do not want to summon the judge, issue an arrest warrant for him, or imprison him because he is a judge. The judiciary wants to protect itself. However, you want to summon a respectable prime minister like Hassan Diab, subpoena him, issue an arrest warrant against him, and throw him in prison. Is this a state of law? Is this a state institution? Does this country have morals? The law says that judges go to court. The constitution says that presidents and ministers go to the presidents’ court. In the case of the presidents and ministers, why don’t you accept. You consider this your right and transcend all constitutional principles and attack people? However, in the case of the judges, the law says that they go to the High Judicial Council. Answer us so that we know whether what is happening is right, just, and fair or is political targeting?

4- The last part in this file:

When presidents, ministers, and representatives feel that they have been wronged, who do they turn to? They tell you – this specific judge is biased. He is attacking us and is unfair with us. He want to arrest us unjustly. He is impatient with formal matters as in talking with us and our lawyers. We are being wronged. Who do we turn to? In a state of law and institutions, the law must answer. They turned to a judicial body, and we see that this judicial body did not take its time to study the case, did not discuss, nor summon, nor investigate. It returned the request saying it’s outside of their jurisdiction. Whose jurisdiction is it? So, guide us. You say the law and the state of institutions, O Higher Judicial Council, answer. Bring the prime minister who will be summoned for arrest, the ministers, and others who may be caught up in lawsuits. Where are they being wronged? If there is no jurisdiction for so and so and so, who has jurisdiction then? This needs a solution and an answer. In any case, we have big problems. We consider that what is happening is a very bad situation. It will not lead to the truth and justice, but it will lead to injustice and to concealment of the truth. This does not mean that we are demanding that the investigation be closed. Not at all. We want an honest and a transparent judge, who works on a clear and transparent investigation based on rules, an investigation in which there is no bias. He must continue the investigation and this matter should not stop at all. 

First, we want an answer. Where would an oppressed person and a person with suspicions seek refuge in this country?

Another thing, the issue is no longer a personal matter, the issue has repercussions at the national level and on the country. Today, I am appealing to the High Judicial Council. What is happening has nothing to do with the judiciary, nor with justice, with fairness, nor with the truth. You must find a solution to the matter. The Supreme Court does not want to resolve the issue. The Council of Ministers is required to resolve this issue. It referred this issue. It will be raised in the Council of Ministers. We will speak and others too. This matter cannot continue this way. There is no possibility for it to continue this way, especially in the next few days. Therefore, among the institutions, the High Judicial Council should meet and see how to address this issue. We are talking to you and on behalf of many people in this country. We are a large segment in this country, and we have the right to be heard. We have the right to be given an answer. We have the right to demand in the Council of Ministers. It is our right that the Council of Ministers discuss this issue and take a stance. In all honesty, I tell you this matter must not continue this way.

As for the rest of the points of discussion, I wanted to talk about the demarcation of the maritime borders, the disputed area, the new negotiations, the Israeli steps, and other files. We will talk about all this, God willing, during the occasion in a few days.

I just want to conclude with two points. I must, morally and ethically, talk about them.

The first point is the bombing that took place in Kunduz, a few days ago, in Afghanistan, in a mosque during Friday prayers, which led to dozens of martyrs and wounded. Of course, this is a painful matter. Any person, Muslim or not, will ache when he sees elderly people and children being killed, just because they were praying in a mosque. This is very sad and very painful.

Despite the distance, we also share with our family and loved ones and these oppressed families their grief and pain. We express our sorrow for what happened and condemn it. But what’s most important is that Daesh committed this crime and claimed responsibility. I say the Wahabi terrorist organization Daesh. 

I hope from all our friends, companions, and the media in our axis, if they accept from me, to call it the Wahhabi terrorist organization. Because what Daesh is doing is the result of this school of thought that accuses the other of being an infidel. One can accuse the other of being an infidel, but he does not spill one’s blood and take his money and honor. A doctrinal disagreement, a certain person says that so-and-so is an infidel and does not believe in a specific cause. But what is more dangerous than takfir [accusing another Muslim to be an apostate] is spilling blood and taking someone else’s money, honor, and social public safety. It is this school of thought that led to these results throughout the world, especially in our Arab and Islamic world. 

The one who also bears the responsibility is America. Before the Americans left Afghanistan and on more than one occasion, I mentioned to you in the media and in speeches that we and others have information that the Americans are moving Daesh from the east of the Euphrates and from the Al-Hol camp. They even transferred some from Iraq to Afghanistan. At that time, many were wondering what the Americans wanted from Daesh in Afghanistan? Of course, at the time, even when they transferred them to Afghanistan, Daesh did not carry out a single operation against the American forces there. Rather, they fought those who were fighting the Americans, including the Taliban. But today, the goal has appeared more, to be sure.

I am an enemy of the Americans and I am accusing them. A few days ago, Turkey’s foreign minister, who is an ally of the Americans but has a problem with them, also said that the Americans had moved Daesh from the east of the Euphrates and eastern Syria to Afghanistan. That’s the Turkish foreign minister, a country that is not a small one in the region. He is a friend of the Americans. This is well known. Why did the Americans take Daesh to Afghanistan during the year they were negotiating with the Taliban in Doha to withdraw?

They were preparing for a post-withdrawal phase. What is the post-withdrawal phase? It is preparing for a civil war in Afghanistan. They had two tools. The first tool was the Afghan state and the Afghan army, which they spent hundreds of billions of dollars on. This collapsed, but the alternative was ready, which was Daesh. Today, Daesh’s work in Afghanistan is to drag the country into a civil war. They carried out operations against non-Shiites in Jalalabad and Kabul. But targeting the mosque in Kunduz, where Shiite Muslims pray, is also to create a state of internal tension that will lead to a civil war in Afghanistan.

The Americans are responsible. The American policies, the American administration, the American army, the CIA, and all those who are working on the issue of Daesh and Afghanistan, we also hold them responsible for the innocent blood that was shed in Afghanistan. The responsibility of the current authorities – whether the world recognizes them or not – now that it is an authority that exists in Afghanistan, is to protect these citizens regardless of their affiliation to any religion or sect.

There is another matter that I must talk about from a moral standpoint, even though it has been a while since it transpired. An incident took place a while back in Palestine where a group of security services affiliated to the Palestinian Authority arrested, beat, and tortured martyr Nizar Banat, a Palestinian brother, a resistance fighter, and a thinker who had brave and courageous positions, which led to his martyrdom.

Of course, one may ask why are you talking about this now and that this story is old? At that time, although we saw that all the Palestinian factions took a position, we preferred to wait because the issue was not very clear, and we considered that it could be an internal affair. But today, it is my duty to pay tribute, even for a few minutes, to this resistant martyr, mujahid, thinker, and bold, brave, and oppressed martyr Nizar Banat. I am one of the people who during the previous period – I mean during his life and not after his martyrdom – I usually and for security reasons do not have internet, but every once in a while, the young men give me recorded summaries, I listen and watch what this person said, how he spoke, and how he expressed a position?

At various times, I listened and gave time to Brother Nizar. I was very impressed by his clarity, his pure thought on the issue of resistance, the issue of “Israel”, the issue of the situation in the region, the position on the axis of resistance, the conflicts in the region, and targeting the axis of resistance. I was amazed by his courage – he lives in the West Bank and it is possible that he might be attacked, arrested, or killed at any moment. Of course, I had in mind that the “Israelis” would kill him and not anyone from the PA. In fact, I would like to say a couple of words first to shed light on this bold, courageous, clear, authentic, and strong figure as well as his position on the issue of resistance, the Palestinian cause. He had courage until his martyrdom. Secondly, as this is the first time I am talking about the subject, we share with honorable family, all his family members, his loved ones, his friends, and his companions the pain and the unending grief. I know that to them this matter has not ended. 

The third point is to demand justice and truth from the Palestinian Authority, the Palestinian judiciary, and all the Palestinian people for martyr Nizar must. Time will not stop this, and this blood must not be wasted just because those who have wronged him or committed crimes against him belong to a certain security apparatus. This is regarding martyr Nizar. I wanted to talk about him. 

I said at the beginning of the speech that in a few days we will have a great and very dear occasion, which is the anniversary of the birth of the greatest Messenger of God. Of course, celebrations and commemorations take place in different regions of the Islamic world.
But in the past years, what must also be noted with admiration and pride is how the dear and oppressed Yemeni people are commemorating this occasion. We are talking about the areas under the control of what they call the Sana’a government, meaning in the areas where Ansarullah is present. Huge crowds gather in all governorates and cities at the same time.

The whole world saw how they’ve been commemorating the birth of the Messenger of God Muhammad during the past two years despite the war, destruction, difficult economic conditions, difficult living conditions, rampant diseases, great dangers, and siege. But it is really amazing the way they commemorate this occasion, and as a Muslim, I tell you that I feel ashamed. Despite the circumstances and situation, these people mark the occasion in such a way, while we, the rest of the Muslims in different parts of the world, how do we commemorate this anniversary even though our circumstances are much better than theirs, even if there are some difficulties. 

First, salutations to the dear and oppressed Yemeni people, who love and adore the Messenger of God, for what they will do during the next few days.

I consider the way the Yemenis mark [this occasion] as an argument for all of us as Muslims in the Islamic world.

In the past few years, we used to hold celebrations. It is possible that during the last two years, we’ve eased down on celebrations a little because of the coronavirus. This year, we want to hold a decent and respectful celebration. That is why starting from now I invite the lovers of the Messenger of God to make the marking and celebration of this year’s occasion appropriate and to the level of their love, adoration, and loyalty to the Messenger of God.

May God give you wellness. We’ll talk about the rest later, God willing, if God keeps us alive. May God’s peace, mercy and blessings be upon you.

The “Worst Director” Award Goes to MBS for His “I Blame My Failure in Yemen on Hezbollah”

Nov 15 2021

The “Worst Director” Award Goes to MBS for His “I Blame My Failure in Yemen on Hezbollah”

By Mohammad Youssef

Beirut – Saudi Arabia that has ignited unfounded irrational crisis with Lebanon, continues to exercise its mounting pressure on the country to dictate its political will, avenge its humiliating defeat in Yemen, and invest in tension to yield electoral gains in the next parliamentary elections early next year.

Riyadh has used a feeble pretext to escalate the situation; a statement by the Lebanese minister of information that he pronounced prior to assuming his office depicting the war in Yemen as absurd and aimless.

Saudi Arabia launched a fierce campaign against Lebanon threatening to severe the relations; announced Lebanese ambassador to Riyadh persona non grata and summoned its ambassador to Lebanon back to Riyadh.

Not only that, Saudi Arabia dictated on other Gulf countries especially Bahrain, Kuwait and United Arab Emirates to follow its path and impose similar stern measures against Lebanon.

Digging into the reasons as why Riyadh is punishing Lebanon and the Lebanese, we could simply find the following:

First, Riyadh is outraged with the futility of its allies in Lebanon that yielded no gains whatsoever in their antagonistic relation with Hezbollah, Saudi Arabia had supplied them with all kinds of support and spent billions of dollars to fight the party through its allies, and the whole issue ended with Hezbollah accumulating gains and successes on every level.

Riyadh has never treated Lebanon as a sovereign independent state, but as an another arena for its political influence where it could dictate its will as it likes. This was clearly dramatized when it imprisoned former Prime Minister Saad Hariri and forced him to resign back in 2017.

Second, Riyadh wants Lebanon to hold the brunt and responsibility of its humiliating defeat in Yemen, it accuses Hezbollah of helping Ansarullah and supplying them with military expertise.

Hezbollah has clearly announced its condemnation for the Saudi criminal war against the Yemenis, politically and morally and on media outlets supported their struggle against Riyadh aggression. After it has exhausted other places in Iraq and Syria, and not finding any other place to avenge its defeat and continued losses, Saudi Arabia is taking revenge on Lebanon using Hezbollah as a pretext to compensate its defeat in Yemen.

Third, Hezbollah is the target for a persistent campaign from the Western Powers headed by Washington and its proxy “Israel” and aided by retrogressive Arab countries headed by Saudi Arabia.

Now, after their failed military attempts to eradicate the Resistance in Lebanon, thanks to the Axis of Resistance that successfully sabotaged their aggressive conspiracies, those sinister tyrant powers have joined efforts to make use of the coming parliamentary elections to gain the majority, so it can carry out a comprehensive change in the political scene.

To sum up, Riyadh’s oppressive aggression against Lebanon is baseless and unjustifiable. It is surely doomed to fail as its precedents.

Riyadh is not only acting in an irrational way, more dangerously, it lacks a sober and wise foreign policy, no wonder it is making all these grave strategic mistakes.

From Lebanon to Yemen, the same shameful scenario is on play with the signature of a director who lacks any vision, Mohammad bin Salman!

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العراق وخطر الفوضى… قضية الحدود أولاً

الاثنين 7 نوفمبر 2021

 ناصر قنديل

في الكثير من وجوه الشبه بين لبنان والعراق، يتداخل الكثير من الترابط بين ما تشهده كل من الساحتين، حيث لا يحتاج المراقب للكثير من الذكاء ليكتشف التشابه والتزامن بين حراكي تشرين 2019 في البلدين والدعوات للانتخابات المبكرة في كليهما، أو ليكتشف أن سلاح المقاومة والمسار الجغرافي لترابط قواها من إيران إلى العراق إلى سورية فلبنان، يشكل عنصر الفك والتركيب للكثير من مشاهد السياسة والأمن في البلدين، وفي خلفيتها كل التعقيدات الدولية والإقليمية، التي أرخت بظلالها على المنطقة منذ الاحتلال الأميركي للعراق عام 2003، بعدما قسمتها إلى محورين، واحد داعم للاحتلال ويراهن عليه، وآخر يراهن على نهاية هذا الاحتلال بورطة أميركية تخلق موازين قوى جديدة، ومن غير الموضوعية والواقعية إنكار أن دول الخليج وعلاقتها بسورية واستطراداً بالمقاومة في لبنان قد بدأ اهتزازها منذ تلك اللحظة، وأن ما شهده لبنان من أحداث كبرى منذ ذلك التاريخ كان يجري على إيقاع هذا الانقسام، مع اغتيال الرئيس رفيق الحريري، وحرب تموز 2006، وصولاً للحرب على سورية، وانتهاء بالانتخابات العراقية والأزمة السعودية- اللبنانية.

بحصيلة عقدين من الحروب والأزمات، حقيقة رئيسية ترسمها صورة الانسحاب الأميركي من أفغانستان، وحقائق فرعية تتحرك في ظلالها تحت عنوان مصير توازنات المنطقة وفي قلبها أوزان حلفاء أميركا، وفي طليعتهم «إسرائيل» والسعودية، في مرحلة ما بعد الانسحاب الأميركي المقبل حتماً، من المنطقة، وفي محاكاة هذه الحقائق الفرعية ترتسم تطورات وتعقيدات ما يشهده لبنان والعراق، ومثلما في لبنان كل شيء يدور حول كيفية تحجيم المقاومة وإضعافها طلباً لأمن أكثر اطمئناناً لكيان الاحتلال، في العراق كل شيء يدور حول تحجيم وإضعاف وحصار قوى المقاومة، منعاً لاتصال الجغرافيا السورية والجغرافيا العراقية، وهو ما يصرح الأميركي علناً بأنه أحد الأثمان التي يطلبها الأميركي لانسحابه من العراق، بمثل ما يصرح بأن انسحاب حزب الله من سورية يمثل الثمن الذي يطلبه للانسحاب من سورية.

كان الرهان على الانتخابات العراقية تمويلاً وترتيباً سياسياً للقوى و‘دارة للعملية الانتخابية، أن ينتج سياقاً ينتهي بمجلس نيابي وحكومة، يقفان على ضفة مقابلة للمقاومة وقواها، ما يفرض عليها معادلات جديدة، لكن العملية لم تكتمل لتحقق المراد حيث تعثرت في عنقي زجاجة، الأول هو العجز عن إنجاز فرز نهائي وإعلان نتائج نهائية للانتخابات على رغم مضي شهر على إجرائها، والثاني هو تعقيدات تشكيل غالبية نيابية كافية لتشكيل حكومة من القوى التي كان مفترضاً أن يبنى على تحالفها تشكيل هذه الغالبية، فسقف ما استطاع تجميعه تحالف التيار الصدري والحزب الديمقراطي الكردستاني ورئيس مجلس النواب السابق محمد الحلبوسي، 140 مقعداً من أصل 165 مقعداً لازمة لتشكيل الكتلة الأكبر التي تسمي رئيس الحكومة، وحتى داخل هذا التحالف تعثرت فرص التفاهم لأسباب تتصل بخصوصية تكوين التيار الصدري وصعوبة ملاقاتها من الآخرين، من جهة، ووجود سقف عال للحزب الديمقراطي الكردستاني لتشكيل تحالف وصعوبة قبولها من شريكيه المفترضين في التحالف، وجاءت التظاهرات الاحتجاجية الداعمة لطعون قانونية قدمتها قوى المقاومة التي استشعرت باستهدافها من العملية الانتخابية، لتحرج وتظهر مأزق الذين بنوا حساباتهم على الانتخابات، ووقعت المجزرة بحق المتظاهرين في هذا السياق.

ما تعرض له منزل رئيس الحكومة العراقية مصطفى الكاظمي من أحداث أمنية، وصفت بمحاولة الاغتيال، توزعت مقاربته بين ثلاثة فرضيات، الأولى هي التشكيك بصدقية وجود محاولة اغتيال انطلاقاً من السياق العملياتي الذي ترويه الوقائع، والثانية هي كون العملية رسالة مدروسة بالنار، والثالثة هي مشروع حقيقي لاغتيال الكاظمي فشل في تحقيق الهدف، لكن الفرضيات الثلاثة تلتقي عند تحقيق ثلاثة أهداف، الأول هو التغطية على المجزرة التي تعرض لها المتظاهرون، والثاني هو توجيه اصابع الاتهام لقوى المقاومة من باب الحديث عن سلاح المسيرات، الذي لا يتحدث أحد عن امتلاك أميركا وإسرائيل لمخزون هائل ونوعي منها، بينما يجري الانطلاق من امتلاك قوى المقاومة لبعضها لاتهامها بالعملية، والهدف هو شيطنة السلاح تمهيداً لحصاره، تماماً كما في لبنان في العراق، والثالث رفع منسوب الاحتقان الداخلي في العراق في ظل فراغ حكومي مع حكومة منتهية الولاية وفراغ نيابي مع مجلس نيابي منتهي الولاية أيضاً، ومثلهما فراغ رئاسي مع نهاية ولاية رئيس الجمهورية، الذي يفترض بالمجلس النيابي الجديد انتخاب خلف له، فيصعد إلى السطح مفهوم الأمن الذاتي وتنتشر حمى التسلح الطائفي، وصولاً لحجب قضية الانسحاب الأميركي عن جدول الأعمال العراقي، وفرض أمر واقع أمني طائفي على المحافظات العراقية الواقعة على الحدود السورية- العراقية، تحقيقاً لهدف فصل الجغرافيا التي فشلت الضغوط العسكرية والسياسية في تحقيقها.

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التحقيق وانفجار المرفأ… والفرز الطائفي

 ناصر قنديل

دخل ملف التحقيق في انفجار مرفأ بيروت المرحلة السياسية الحرجة مع تحوله إلى بند خلافي على جدول أعمال الحكومة، وبات واضحاً نجاح التجييش الطائفي الذي رافق اللحظة الأولى من الانفجار للتركيز على اعتبار الضحايا والأحياء المصابة من لون طائفي واحد، وتجاهل الطابع الجامع للكارثة التي وحدت اللبنانيين بدماء ضحاياهم وخسائر بيوتهم ومنشآتهم الاقتصادية، ولم تميز بين طائفة وأخرى، ونجح التجييش الطائفي الإعلامي والسياسي بالانتقال إلى البيت القضائي والحقوقي، سواء على مستوى تسمية المحقق العدلي الأول والثاني، أو على مستوى تموضع نقابة المحامين، وصولاً لمقاربة وسائل الإعلام، كما كان واضحاً ويزداد وضوحاً أن اليد الأميركية كانت حاضرة في كل هذه المحطات، تشجع وتحرض وتضع الأولويات، وصولاً للإيحاء بالرعاية للمحقق العدلي من باب وصفه بالنزاهة من الكونغرس الأميركي.

منذ اليوم الأول للأحداث التي انطلقت في الشارع اللبناني في تشرين 2019 حضر الدبلوماسي الأميركي السابق جيفري فيلتمان ليقول إن قيمة ما يجري بأنه يفتح الباب لقيادة تحول على المستوى النيابي في الساحة المسيحية، ومنذ ذلك التاريخ بدأ خلق مناخ إعلامي وسياسي لشيطنة حزب الله وتصويره من دون أي مقدمات وبشكل مفارق لكل المعطيات وحجم الأدوار والمسؤوليات، سبباً للأزمة الاقتصادية والمالية، وشيئاً فشيئاً كان هذا الخطاب المفتعل الذي أدى لخسارة تحركات تشرين شارعها الإسلامي، يتحول إلى خطاب رسمي للإعلام المخصص لمخاطبة الشارع المسيحي، ويجد التيار الوطني الحر نفسه محاصراً بشارع يستدرجه شيئاً فشيئاً إلى خطاب مختلف مع حليفه الاستراتيجي الذي يمثله حزب الله تحت شعار الحاجة الانتخابية، حتى جاء تفجير مرفأ بيروت، وتمت برمجة مشهد التحقيق والشارع تحت العنوان الطائفي، ليجد التيار والعهد أنهما أسرى معادلة عنوانها دعم التحقيق والمحقق، على رغم الشعور ببعض الاستهداف في مفاصل التحقيق، وعلى الرغم من عدم منح الأذون لملاحقات طلبها المحقق، بقي خطاب التيار محكوماً بهذه الشعبوية الطائفية وأسيراً لها، تحت شعار اذهبوا إلى المحقق ودعوه يكمل مهمته، ورفض معادلة محاكمة الرؤساء والوزراء أمام المجلس الأعلى المخصص دستورياً لمحاكمتهم، والشراكة في لعبة التعبئة تحت عنوان لا للحصانات.

في ظل موقف للمرجعيات الدينية المسيحية الداعمة للمحقق والمشككة بكل اعتراض على إجراءاته، مقابل مواقف واضحة للمرجعيات الإسلامية تشكك بسلامة التحقيق وأداء المحقق، يكتمل الانقسام السياسي بوقوف القوات اللبنانية والتيار الوطني الحر على أرضية واحدة من التحقيق، والمحقق، مقابل موقف موحد لتيار المستقبل وحركة أمل وحزب الله، ولا يفيد تمايز تيار المردة مسيحياً، والحزب التقدمي الإشتراكي إسلامياً، بموقفين متعاكسين بين التشكيك والتأييد، في تغيير الاصطفاف الطائفي، الذي يقسم المجتمع ويقسم البرلمان وبدأ يهدد وحدة الحكومة، كما يصيب المناخ القضائي والحقوقي، بحيث يبدو البلد كله في متاهة الانقسام الخطير التي لم يعرفها منذ نهاية الحرب الأهلية.

مقاربة حزب الله لملف التحقيق ليست مجرد تحسب لأهداف يستشعرها الحزب من حركة المحقق لتركيب ملف اتهامي مباشر أو غير مباشر يخدم مهمة شيطنة الحزب، بل هي محاولة لإخراج الاستقطاب حول القضية من الاشتباك الطائفي، والرهان على العلاقة الخاصة التي تربط الحزب بالتيار الوطني الحر للوصول إلى موقف حكومي يتيح نقل النقاش حول التحقيق من اللعبة الشعبوية الخطرة بدرجة سخونتها وأرضيتها الطائفية، إلى مسار قانوني بارد وتقني يقوم على معادلات بعيدة عن لعبة الشارع من جهة، والتوظيف السياسي من جهة موازية، فهل ينجح أم يبقى الانقسام ويتجذر لأنه جزء من عدة تحضير البلد لدخول الانتخابات مع مطبات سياسية وإعلامية، وفي ظل تشنج طائفي مكهرب على التوتر العالي، يصيب الاصطفافات والتحالفات بشظاياه؟

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