Syria: The complicated scene

By Abir Bassam

November 24, 2020 – 10:49

It is a dirty war that has been going on in Syria, Libya, and Yemen. Almost nine and a half tragic years have passed. The three countries were subjected to all kinds of terror and brutally destroyed. Actually, what has been going on is a world war! All weapons were used and tested and many countries were involved.

It was a real dirty war, in which the West and the Americans and their allies in the region have used the worst kind of men: a group of collaborators and barbaric terrorists. 

The worst kinds of mercenaries from all over the world were sent to Syria. They practices the ugliest inhumane deeds: they decapitated heads, literally ate hearts, and burned people alive to death. 

These groups were directly led by generals from the U.S., France, and Turkey. This information was supported by different informed resources that reported capturing French, British, and Turkish officers since 2015, in particular, during the invasion of Idlib. The district was invaded by a tenth of thousands of terrorists from Nusra, especially its group Fateh al-Sham which is directly supported and trained by Turkey, and Ahrar al-Sham which was directly supported by the Americans. The invasion was directly led by the Turkish tank battalions and the NATO alliances. 

By December 2015, the northeast of Syria was also invaded by another terrorist group, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria [ISIS]. ISIS was created with the utmost attention of Hilary Clinton, during Barak Obama’s administration. This was revealed by Donald Trump during his election campaign in 2016. ISIS swept over the al-Jazeera region and extended to Palmira through the Syrian Desert and occupied Homos, the biggest Syrian district. It was directly protected by the American extending military bases in northern Syria and the eastern base in al-Tanf. ISIS attacked both the Syrian government forces and the opposition factions. 

The plan was to allow ISIS invasion of northern-eastern Syria territories and western-northern Iraqi territories in order to terminate the opposition factions in the region. It was carefully planned by Obama’s administration and in particular his vice president Joe Biden, the new president of the United States of America.

Under the pretense of fighting terrorism, the Americans were back in Iraq and restored bases in Iraq, built new ones in Syria and reestablished new militia groups in the area of the northeast, mainly Kurdish groups. They were trained and equipped by the Americans. For the U.S., it was a necessary step to launch a Kurdish federalism on the Syrian territories.  

Nonetheless, the U.S. had set the return plan before withdrawing from Iraq in 2010. Upon its departure, the American administration empowered the al-Qaeda group in Iraq, and supported its existence, as Trump declared and accused Hillary Clinton of being the mastermind behind it. ISIS was basically the American approach to siege Syria, and eventually, apply the plan of division in the region and establish a Kurdish state. 

Saying that may seem to be naive and simple. However, executing the plan required initiating “revolutions” in other Arab countries, recruiting media specialists, recruiting special personnel to initiate eruptions by social media, and consuming billions of dollars in the process, of which the Saudi kingdom and Qatar were the main contributors.

In 1992, I was on a visit to al-Hassaka and al-Qamishli. I was just a young beginner in journalism. I was conducting an investigation report about the Yazidis. At that stage, a large number of Yazidis and Kurds were immigrating to Syria. They escaped the biased and brutal treatment of Saddam Hussein and the fanatic Turks. These Kurds were building a wide network in Europe. They bought sympathy and support to establish a federation in Iraq in 1996. The process was facilitated by the Americans after the second Persian Gulf War in 1991 as Saddam’s power was fading.

The idea of having a similar kind of federation in Syria became appealing to both the Americans and Israelis. The size of Israeli foreign intelligence service Mossad’s presence in the Iraqi Kurdistan is not a secret anymore. It is an established fact. The Americans also facilitated the Israeli presence in northeast Syria, especially those who came with American nationality to work in the oil fields.

The Turkish president Erdogan was one of the supporters of the American plan to dismantle Syria. Erdogan was able to recruit Qatar to the best interest of Turkey. Both countries were discontent with the Syrian government’s refusal to allow building the Qatari gas pipeline to Turkey through its territories. Syria saw that a move that would discomfort its allies in Russia and Iran. However, Erdogan had bigger plans in Syria. In the northwest region, Erdogan mainly saw the Idlib and Aleppo districts as the extent of Turkey, and a head starts to initiate the Ottoman dream. 

This dream vanished to thin air when Syria started liberating the area occupied by ISIS in West Euphrates, and al-Gab plain after cleaning the Damascus area, Homos, and the center of Syria from terrorism with unlimited support from Russia. The second shock Erdogan received when the Americans started supporting the establishment of the Kurdish federation in al-Hassaka. 

The Kurdish militia was founded in October 2015 under the name Syrian Democratic Forces [SDF]. SDF in its formation includes Kurds from Syria and others who came mainly from Turkey and other countries, most of them do not speak Arabic, unlike the Syrian Kurds. 60% of the militia includes Arab Syrians, according to the Pentagon. There are other nationalities included among the formation of SDF, who are Turkmens, Armenians, Circassians, and Chechens, who came from all over Asia.

In 2016, SDF updated its constitution from a separate federal state into an Autonomous Administration of Northern and East Syria [NES] and declared SDF as its official defense force, which complicated the Syrian political scene, furthermore. Now NES or SDF are cooperating with the official American forces in east-north of Syria and serve as “the Southern Lebanese Army, [SLA]” in South Lebanon during the Israeli occupation in South Lebanon. As SLA has tried to establish an independent state in South Lebanon, SDF or NES is trying to acquire the same course. 

Since 2018 the Syrian army, with the help of allies – Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah- has been able to liberate most of the occupied lands. However, the liberation coincided with the rise of economic pressure on Syria. The price of the Syrian lira if compared to the American dollar dropped and its purchasing value decreased. It was due to the economic sanctions that were imposed on Syria, and lately “Caesar Law” which was activated in the mid of June 2020. 

In 2018, the American troops withdrew from the north of Syria and were redeployed in the al-Hassaka district around the Syrian richest oil fields. The American companies, in particular ARAMCO, are now draining the Syria oil to the interest of NES and financing the American troops stationed in the northern-eastern area of the Euphrates in Syria. Actually, Syria is facing an internal problem with the lack of petroleum resources. The hard winter is coming and the lines for buying the diesel needed for heating the houses will be crowded as much as the lines for gasoline.

After burning and stealing the wheat plains in the al-Jazeera district by the Americans and the Turks, the bread prices went 25% higher. Shortage in bread supplies was triggered by the government’s decision to set the bread rations. The Americans were literally applying Kissinger’s policy which states that nations are ruled by bread, not by arms. The shortage of bread and petroleum products is new to the Syrian population; therefore, the successive Syrian governments are facing major challenges since the beginning of 2019. 

Caesar Law added additional pressure on the countries that may establish economic and commercial deals with Syria. The law was imposed at a time in which the world is suffering from COVID-19 epidemic, which spread in Syria as well. In addition, Syria needs to deal with the issue of the Syrian refugees. It is a dilemma that needs to be dealt with appropriately. The refugees’ dilemma is used as a political card to force the Syrians to submit to the American political demands, which are set on two levels: national and international.

On the national level, the international community wants to pressure the Syrian government into implementing a new constitution based on the sectarian division of power, just like Lebanon, which would diminish the presidential authority and redistribute it, as it happened in Tunisia and Sudan, which would divide the power of the head of the state. The second issue is related to the question of the forcibly disappeared people, who were kidnapped or killed by the rebel groups, and treating the killers and kidnappers as political opponents without subjecting them to trials. This issue will be a matter of conflict, and will not be accepted by those whose families and friends were kidnapped or killed. This fact was revealed a few days ago by the new Syrian Foreign Minister, Mr. Feisal Muqdad. 

On the international level, the requirements of the international community, i.e. the U.S., have become common knowledge.  Since 2003, after the invasion of Iraq, the U.S. secretary of state, Colin Powell, came to Syria and laid down the U.S. demands: dismantling Hezbollah arms, ending Syrian support to the resistance groups in Lebanon, Palestine, and Iraq, and ending cooperation with Iran in the region. The end means, as usually explained, is ensuring the security of Israel. 

Naturally, the Syrians refused American demands. Therefore, we should make no mistake and assume that what had happened in the Arab region under the pretense of “Arab Spring” was meant for the destruction of Syria in order to dismantle it into minor sectarian states that can be easily controlled to the best interest of “Israel” and America.

Hence, Syria requires two essential needs to start its reconstruction process: the first is lifting the sanctions imposed on it; and the second is to end the American occupation in the northeast area. However, the West insists on linking lifting the sanctions to the political process. But when it comes to the achievement of the liberation from the Americans this process cannot be realized unless the national resistance would be highly activated in the northeast of Syria. It is America that we all know. It did not end its occupation of Vietnam, Korea, and eventually Iraq in 2010 until the number of causalities becomes unbearable in the American community.

Syria’s essential needs were clearly stated by its president Bashar Al-Assad on two occasions, the first was during a video call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the 10th of November. The second time was in his speech at the opening of the International Conference on the Return of the Refugee in Damascus [ICRRD] on the 11th of November.

During his visit on the 5th of November to the exhibition “Producers 2020” in “Tekia Sulaymaniyah” in the capital, Damascus. It was attended by producers from the Aleppo governorate whose facilities, workshops, and shops were damaged during the war. President al-Assad talked about the economic impact of the issue of shortage of oil supplies and burning the wheat fields in northeastern regions. 

He also explained that the economic problem was clearly becoming worse when the banks in Lebanon blocked the Syrian deposits. President al-Assad said that there is vagueness about the Syrian deposit’s estimations. Its assessment ranges from 20 billion dollars to 42 billion dollars. The blockade has been going on for years. He added the crisis began years before the Caesar Law and began years after the siege. It coincided with the money disappearance in the Lebanese banks. Furthermore, al-Assad declared that we do not know what the real number is, and this figure for an economy like the Syrian one is a frightening number.

Al-Assad’s declaration became one week before ICRRD to which Lebanon was invited. Was this a message to Lebanon? It could be, although many observers have denied it. The denial is basically based on Syria’s previous special treatment of Lebanon. Lebanon in the Syrian considerations are two contradictory facts: the first, Lebanon is an opening to the western world with bipolar swings. The first swing expressed in the historical Arab and regional ideology.

And the second swing is expressed in the lining towards a Western ideology, with the tendency to sign normalization agreements with “Israel”. The second group was of great concern to the Syrians since the creation of Lebanon. It is known as the right-wing groups, who allied with the Americans and the Israelis. 

The second fact, Lebanon as a state is based on providing services and tourism. It is considered to be the lung that Syria needs to breathe with. However, this lung health became worse since 2011, when the United States accused the Lebanese Canadian Bank of laundering terrorism money. And then again in 2016, since many banks faced the same accusations and were prohibited to deal with customers that the U.S. listed them as Hezbollah members.

Accordingly, the Lebanese banks froze several balances for many customers and in particular the Syrian customers that were importing goods to Syria through Lebanon after imposing an embargo on Syria. It is clear for the Syrians, regardless of the unique relationship with Hezbollah, it is about time that Lebanon should release these balances, and pay its debts to Syria, especially the debts that have been accumulating since 1990, which are the revenues from selling electricity.

Syria, as President al-Assad explained, will need its money in the process of rebuilding the country’s main infrastructure and vital installations, which were destroyed during the liberation war against the terrorist groups. It is a call for Lebanon to join forces with Syria to demand lifting the embargo and to be excluded from Cesar Law consequences because Lebanon needs to open up to Syria for commercial trades towards the east, in particular, to Arab countries, or Lebanon will be demanded to pay back its debts. 

The Americans were pushing Syria and the region since 1973 towards peace and normalization treaties with “Israel”. However, Syria has proven that such an agreement would be difficult to execute unless it was a “peace for land” agreement, which would ensure the right of return of the Palestinian people. An equation, nor the Israeli, neither the Americans are willing to sign for. In addition, Syria’s main condition, during the negotiations held in Oslo in 1992, was the return of all occupied Arab territories. However, the series of recognitions Trump has approved throughout his reign made the return to the negotiation table almost impossible. It also pushed into more complications with the relation between Syria and Lebanon since the assassination of Rafiq al-Hariri in 2005. The need to separate the Syrian-Lebanese course in the peace process is becoming a must for the Americans. A need until today could not be achieved.

Syria now is subjected to American pressure that requires its approval to initiate peace and normalization agreements with Israel. This goal so far was difficult to achieve, especially after Trump’s recognition of the Golan Heights as part of Israel. Even Syria’s allies, in particular Russia, cannot force the Syrians to give up part of their land. Syria’s war on terror has spared all its allies the tragedy of dragging this war into their own territories. 

Hence, Syria prepaid in blood for the security of its “friends” now. History will, sooner or later, reveal this fact. Syria’s insistence on the unity of its land, and its refusal to have any divided authority is now a fact. The Syrians cannot compromise it, and the allies cannot go against it. The course of negotiations the allies led in Astana and Sochi has affirmed it. However, this fact has complicated the Syrian scene furthermore. It might even force the Americans to lead directly the war in the region, whether in arms or diplomacy, since the proxies have proven their disabilities.

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ابن سلمان مذعور من بايدن لأربعة أسباب

د. وفيق إبراهيم

ولي العهد السعودي محمد بن سلمان مصاب بقلق عميق من التداعيات المرتقبة للسياسات الجديدة التي يريد الرئيس الأميركي الجديد جو بايدن تطبيقها في الشرق الاوسط.

هذه التدابير لا تشمل «اسرائيل» لأن هناك تطابقاً كاملاً في دعمها أميركياً وسعودياً.

أليست السعودية مَن أقنع الإمارات والبحرين والسودان بالتطبيع معها؟ وتتحضر لبناء علاقات مباشرة معها بعد استدراج دول عربية وإسلامية جديدة للتطبيع لتلتحق بها آنفاً في عملية تمويه تبدو وكأنها قبول سعودي مكره لأمر واقع بدأته دول اخرى.

فـ»إسرائيل» كيان محتل، لكنها من الثوابت الأساسية للاستراتيجية الأميركية في العالم وليس مسموحاً لأحد التعرّض لها.

ما هي إذاً أسباب هذا الذعر السعودي؟

تشكلت في السنوات الأربع الأخيرة تيارات في الحزب الديمقراطي الأميركي لاستهداف العلاقة الحميمة بين الرئيس الأميركي ترامب ومحمد بن سلمان. فجرى الاستثمار في اغتيال الخاشقجي وملاحقة الأمني الجبري في أميركا وكندا والاعتقالات التي سجن فيها ابن سلمان أولاد عمومته ومعارضيه بدعم من الرئيس ترامب.

هذا بالإضافة إلى فرض نفسه ولياً لعهد أبيه الملك سلمان، بما يناقض التوريث السياسي في المملكة القائم على انتقال الملك من شقيق الى أخيه وهكذا دواليك، إلى أن تصل الى اولاد الأشقاء وبالمداورة.

للإشارة فإن الدعم الذي تلقاه بن سلمان من ترامب هو الذي أوصله الى ولاية العهد مقابل تأييد سعوديّ كامل لسياسات ترامب وتوجّهاته الاقتصادية سعودياً.

هذا هو السبب الأول الذي يرعب بن سلمان باعتبار أن حلفه مع ترامب ناصب الرئيس المنتخب بايدن ومجمل الحزب الديمقراطي العداء، وقد يبلغ هذا العداء إذا غابت التسويات تماماً إلى حدود عرقلة الانتقال الهادئ لولي العهد الى العرش السعودي. وهذا ما يستطيع الأميركيون أن يفعلوه بسهولة مع مملكة يسيطرون على كل تضاريسها السياسيّة والاقتصاديّة.

أما السبب الثاني فمرتبط برفض الحزب الديمقراطي الموالي لبايدن للحرب السعودية – الإماراتية على اليمن المتواصلة منذ خمس سنوات ومطالبته الدائمة بوقف بيع السلاح الأميركيّ للسعودية والإمارات في هذه الحرب.

لذلك يخشى بن سلمان من ضغط أميركي يوقف هذه الحرب فترتدّ سلباً عليه لجهة إعادة تشكيل اليمن موحّداً بين الشمال والجنوب مع إمكانية تبلور دولة يمنية قوية تتموضع على رأس جزيرة العرب وتتحكم بحركة الانتقال والتنقل من بحر عدن الى قناة السويس مروراً بباب المندب وجزيرة سقطرى نحو الخليج الهندي.

هذا يسبب ذعراً لآل سعود من التراجع الإضافي المرتقب لدولتهم ما يجعلها أكثر هامشية مما عليه الآن.

لجهة السبب الثالث، الذي يرعبهم ايضاً فيتعلق باحتمال تقارب أميركي تركي يقوم على إزالة الكثير من التعارضات التي تشكلت بين البلدين منذ 2012 تقريباً.

إن من شأن أي تقارب بايدن مع الأتراك العودة الى استخدام الاخوان المسلمين الورقة القوية للأتراك وحزبهم الاخواني الحاكم العدالة والتنمية في الكثير من البلدان. وهؤلاء الاخوان موجودون في معظم العالم العربي والإسلامي ويشكلون تهديداً أيديولوجياً للوهابية والأنظمة الملكية. فالاخوان يختارون ولي الأمر بمفهوم الشورى الداخلية فيما بينهم ويرفضون مبدأ التوارث في السلطة السياسيّة. بما يعني رفضهم لنماذج الدول الخليجيّة في السعودية وعمان والبحرين والإمارات والكويت وغيرها، القائمة على مبدأ الوراثة العائلية للسلطة.

هذا من الأساليب التي تجعل السعودية لا تقبل باستعمال الاخوان آلية سياسية للتحرك الأميركي – السعودي في المنطقة بالإضافة الى أن أي نجاح للاخوان في الإقليم هو صعود لدور تركيا المنافس الفعلي للسعودية على زعامة العالم الإسلامي.

لذلك يخشى بن سلمان من تغيير في مرحلة بايدن للسياسات الأميركية في الشرق الأوسط تستند الى تقارب أميركي مع الأتراك.

فهذا يدفع الى مزيد فوري من تراجعات للأدوار السعودية الخارجية وحتى في شبه جزيرة العرب.

على مستوى السبب الرابع فهو إيران، وهنا لا بد من الإشارة الى أن بن سلمان يعرف بدقة أن إيران لا تشكل خطراً مباشراً على السعودية لأن الجيوبوليتيك الأميركي يعتبرها ومنذ 1945 جزءاً بنيويّاً منه تلي «إسرائيل» مباشرة في الأهمية.

لكن هذا لا يمنع من شعور محمد بن سلمان بالخطر الكبير من أي هدنة أميركية إيرانية جديدة تستند على عودة الأميركيين الى الاتفاق النووي وبالتالي الى رفع الحصار عن إيران.

هنا يرى السعوديون في هذه الخطوة استعادة إيران لقدراتها في الحركة الإقليمية واسترجاعاً لقوتها الاقتصادية ما يؤدي الى توسع نفوذها في آسيا الوسطى ومسلمي الهند وباكستان مروراً بتحالفاتها في اليمن والعراق وسورية ولبنان. هذا بالإضافة الى المقدرة الإيرانية على نسج علاقات مع الاخوان المسلمين في مختلف المواضع والأمكنة.

لذلك يبدو محمد بن سلمان محاصراً في طموحاته الشخصية، ومرعوباً من تغيير فعلي في الإقليم، وخائفاً من نمو رغبة أميركية بتغييره بأمير آخر من أولاد عمومته.

كما انه يعرف أن الدورين التركي والإيراني اكثر فاعلية من قدرة «إسرائيل» على حمايته. بما قد يدفعه لدفع أتاوة جديدة للأميركيين مع ولاءات سياسية واستراتيجية غير مسبوقة، فهل يمتنع بن سلمان عن دفع الف مليار دولار للأميركيين مقابل دعمه في الإمساك بالعرش السعودي؟ لقد دفع لترامب نحو 500 مليار من أجل ولاية العهد، أفلا يستحقّ العرش أكثر من ذلك؟

هذا هو المنطق السعودي والأميركي في آن معاً والضحية بالطبع هم أهل جزيرة العرب الذين يتشارك في قمعهم الأميركيون والسعوديون ويجهضون أي محاولة فعليّة لتحرّرهم من قيود القرون الوسطى.

Update on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

Update on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

The Saker

With everybody is focused on the US election drama, there are important developments in the war over the NK.  I will summarize them here:

  • While both the original Russian and then subsequent US ceasefires failed minutes after they were proclaimed, there are signs that both the Armenians and the Azeris are getting exhausted and want to talk.
  • So far, the Azeris were mostly prevailing, but at great costs.  Also, their drones were used with great effectiveness, but now most of them have eventually been shot down.  Also, the winter is coming fast, making any kind of warfare close to impossible, especially in the mountains.
  • It appears that today the Azeris shot down a Russian Mi-24 by mistake, but right over the border in Armenian airspace.  Putin will not retaliate since he knows that this is a mistake and since he does not let such minor, if tragic, incidents affect him.  But Aliev also knows that now things are getting really dangerous so he already apologized, offered compensation, promised a criminal investigation which will punish all those who are responsible.  Aliev “gets” Russia and he also “gets” Putin.  Smart man!
  • The Armenians probably have realized two things: a) the US cannot help them b) their public image in Russia is pretty bad.  On this page: https://vz.ru/vote/result/1820/, Vzgliad, a popular and moderately patriotic website asked this question in a survey: “Which of the parties to the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh is morally right in your eyes?“.  The result?  Armenia 33.06 and Azerbaijan 48.12.  The arrogant and openly hostile attitude of the Armenians since 2018 has hurt them tremendously and they might be coming back to their senses.  If Pashinian is removed, he did lose this war, after all, that would help a lot.
  • There are now signs that Russia and Turkey will decide the outcome of this war.  Considering how the two countries cooperated in Syria, this will be both very difficult to achieve, but all that matters is the end result.
  • There are also rumors that Russia will send peacekeepers into Nagorno-Karabach.  If confirmed, they will be heavily armed peacekeepers with full support from the Russian armed forces in Armenia and even Russia.
  • Pashinian has already made public a declaration in which he says that he has agreed to the terms offered by Russia and Azerbaijan and that the war is “over”

We will see if this ceasefire will hold any more than the previous ones did, but this is a good sign.

The Azeris know that if they continue the war, it will get harder and harder for them.

The Armenians, who are the real losers in this war, now want to stop it ASAP.  They know that they have no chance of “victory” and that the best thing they can do now is to agree to new terms.

As for Russia, it was quite funny for me to see the so-called “Russia specialists” declaring how Russia had “lost control of the near abroad” when, in reality, the only party which actually benefited from this war was Russia!  Why?  Because this war has proven (or, if this ceasefire does not hold, will prove) that Russia is the sole kingmaker of the Caucasus.  Not Turkey, most definitely a dying USA, not Iran (though it is very powerful, I would give Iran the #2 rank) – but Russia and only Russia.  Furthermore, this war served an important purpose: to show the Armenians that their future depends on their relationship with Russia.  The cost of this “lesson” was huge, but this is hardly Russia’s fault.  As for Erdogan, his lesson is that while he can dream about a new, big, Ottoman Empire, that’s ain’t gonna happen as long as Russia exists (that is something NO Russia leader can allow to happen).

So what’s next (assuming this ceasefire holds)?

Nagorno-Karabach will return under Azeri rule, at least formally, de jure.  It will have an special status, obviously, and to reassure the population, Russian peacekeepers will be deployed in and around NK.  De facto, NK will remain a semi-independent province.  Confidence building measures will slowly be implemented, beginning with an exchange of dead bodies and prisoners.  Then the heavy weapons will be moved baack, and some weapons systems will be closely monitored (including Azeri drones).  The road linking NK to Armenia (which now is under Azeri fire control) will get some kind of special “civilians only” status, insuring that both sides refrain from using it for any bellicose purposes.  This is pretty standard stuff and it should work here too.

Besides, that is the only possible solution to this war anyway.

God willing, peace will return to the suffering people of Armenia and Azerbaijan.

And, God willing, the Armenians will learn their lesson and never forget it again: Russia is their only real friend.

The Saker

More on the topic

TURKISH RISK INVESTMENTS IN LOCAL CONFLICTS AND PROSPECTS OF ARMENIAN COUNTER-OFFENSIVE IN KARABAKH

South Front

In early November, the Azerbaijani-Turkish advance in the directions of the Lachin corridor and the town of Shusha in the Nagorno-Karabakh region slowed down.

The main factors are the fierce resistance of Armenian forces, the complicated terrain, deteriorating weather conditions and overextended communications that run through recently captured territories, where Armenian sabotage units are still able to deliver regular attacks. 9 villages, the capturing of which Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev announced recently, are in fact located inside the territory captured by Azerbaijani forces earlier. This showcases the lack of progress of Baku’s forces in the recent battles.

Commenting on this situation, Armenian sources argue that right now Yerevan has been preparing a powerful counter-attack to push the Azerbaijanis out of the south of Karabakh. The only factor that allegedly stops Armenia from such a move right now is the commitment of the Armenians to the reached ceasefire agreements that Baku blatantly violates.

Meanwhile, the Armenian side continues to regularly release updates about the losses of Azerbaijan in the conflict. The Azerbaijani military allegedly lost 10 UAVs, 21 armoured vehicles, and 103 soldiers in recent clashes. While the high casualties of the sides are not a secret and widely confirmed by visual evidence regularly appearing from the ground, the claims that the Turkish-Azerbaijani bloc somehow lost the strategic initiative in the war are at least overestimated. Azerbaijani artillery, combat drones and even warplanes still regularly pound fortified positions, manpower and military equipment of the defending forces. The Armenians do not have enough means and measures to protect its supply columns and manpower from regular and intense airstrikes.

As of November 3, Azerbaijani forces supported by the Turks and Turkish-backed Syrian militants are still deployed within striking distance of Lachin and Shusha. The loss of any of these points may mark the collapse of the entire Armenian defense in the area. Any large Armenian counter-attack, if it does not deliver a rapid and devastating blow to the Turkish-Azerbaijani forces, will likely not allow to achieve a strategic success. Instead, it will uncover the existing Armenian units and increase the number of casualties from air and artillery strikes. The dominance in the air also means an advantage in reconnaissance and target accusation. In these conditions, small regular counter-attacks mostly aimed at disturbing the advancing Azerbaijani-Turkish units, and undermining their efforts to secure the newly captured positions, look more likely. Despite the lack of notable Azerbaijani gains in recent days, the Armenian defense is still in crisis and, if Ankara and Baku succeed in securing communications and regrouping their forces, the new push towards the Lachin-Shusha-Stepanakert triangle seems to be inevitable.

The diplomatic attempts to de-escalate the conflict have so far led to little progress as Turkey and Azerbaijan feel themselves too close to the desired military victory. President Aliyev wants to write his name down in history as the leader that returned Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan, while his Turkish counterpart Erdogan sees himself as the sultan of the New Ottoman Empire, pretending be the leader of the entire Turkic world and even wider – of all the muslims in the Middle East, Caucasus and Central Asia.

The entire Turkish foreign policy of previous years was a policy of aggressive advances, confrontations and raising bets. This led to particular diplomatic and economic problems on the international scene and undermined the Turkish national economy. However, it looks like the Turkish leadership believes that the potential revenue of turning the Neo-Ottoman and pan-Turkic declarations into a hard reality will generate revenue of such a scale that it would allow to compensate for existing tactical difficulties. Therefore, the Turkish-Azerbaijani stance towards the further confrontation in Karabakh is not something surprising.

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نهج أردوغان الإخواني يهدّد وجوده

الإخواني التركي أردوغان يهدد الجيش الوطني الليبي - Actualités Tunisie Focus

 سماهر الخطيب

وقف الرئيس التركي رجب طيب أردوغان، أمس، مدافعاً عن الإسلام والمسلمين منصّباً نفسه حامياً للدين الإسلامي في كلمة شهدت ترديده أنشودة إسلامية شهيرة «طلع البدر علينا» وهو كان كما «المنافق» الذي لا تعكس أقواله الأفعال، وهذا ليس بمكان استهجان مما يقوم به أردوغان الذي لا يترك ذريعة إلا ويتمسّك بها لبسط نفوذه وتنفيذ أجنداته «العثمانية»..

إنما ما يجعلنا نضع الاستهجان سيّد الموقف هو قوله بالأمس، أنه «لا يمكن أن يكون المسلم إرهابياً ولا الإرهابي مسلماً».. هذا القول يدفعنا للتساؤل ماذا عن الإرهابيين الذين درّبهم في معسكرات على أرضه للقتال في سورية، وإعادة تدويرهم للقتال في ليبيا ولاحقاً قره باغ.

وليس هناك من داعٍ للإجابة إذ باتت سيناريوات أردوغان واضحة ومكشوفة الأهداف تتلخص بالعزف على إيقاع الكلمات والمفردات لجذب القلوب والتأييد الأعمى وبات نهجه «الإخواني» في السياسة الخارجية واضح المعالم ذا أذرع عسكرية تخريبية في المنطقة برمّتها من شرق المتوسط حتى العمق الأفريقي، عاكساً خريطة الجرائم العدوانية التركية في بؤر الصراعات والأزمات كانغماسه في العمليات الإرهابية في سورية والعراق وليبيا. وليس هذا فحسب بل نسف مفهوم العمق الإستراتيجي بتهديده دولاً عربية كمصر والسعودية والإمارات وتونس، وتجاوز حدود البُعد الإقليمي مع التوتر الذي أشعلته أطماعه المصلحية على الحدود الأوروبية في شرق المتوسط، بعد ما تجاوزت أطماعه قبرص واليونان ضارباً في عرض الحائط ملف الانضمام إلى الاتحاد الأوروبي، ناهيك عن دعمه العدوان الأذري على الأرمن مكرراً سيناريو أحاكه وأخرجه أجداده في الإبادة الأرمنية.

إضافة إلى مواقف أنقرة من ملف اللاجئين وغيره من الملفات المقلقة لأوروبا وعلى رأسها الملف الحقوقي وما يقوم به من تجاوزات بعد محاولة الانقلاب الفاشل، ولأن للرئيس التركي رجب طيب أردوغان باعاً طويلاً من المراوغات والمراوحات بين الحبال الغربية تارة والروسية تارة والعربية تارة أخرى، باتت محاولاته مكشوفة لدى حلفائه وأعدائه فقد وضع نفسه أمام خيارات محدودة، بعد تلك التجاوزات والتي سجلت له صفراً في سورية عقب إرغام قواته على الانسحاب من «مورك» والتي ستتساقط بعدها النقاط التركية الواحدة تلو الأخرى كأحجار الدومينو ما سيجعل من الصعوبة عليه قلب ميزان القوى الذي تميل كفته للدولة السورية، لكونها تخضع بعملياتها هناك لمبدأ السيادة قبل كل شيء، فيما تخضع عملياته لـ»مبدأ» النرجسية وانتهاك السيادة.

وبالتالي تحوّلت تركيا وفق مبادئ «الأردوغانية» إلى قاعدة عالمية للإرهاب يستطيع معها أردوغان تقويض استقرار الدول وانتهاك سيادتها، هذا الرئيس التركي الذي تبجّح أمس، بحماية «المسلمين» وعلق بالقول «لا يمكن أن يكون المسلم إرهابياً» نسي بأنّ الإرهاب المدرّب في تركيا والمجرّب في سورية، أصبح حقيقةً قاطعةً واقعة في أرجاء المعمورة يخشاها المجتمع الدولي ويعمل على الحد من مخاطرها.

ما يعني أنه نفى عن نفسه اعتقاده الديني «المسلم». وخذوا الحكمة من أفواه المجانين إذ كيف له أن يكون «مسلماً» مدافعاً عن «الدين» وإرهابياً جاثياً وراء المخربين صانعاً لـ»فكر» المتطرفين.. متسلقاً على حبال الكلام بالدين والتبجّح بالدفاع عن المسلمين ليحشد حوله المؤيدين كـ»خليفة» للمسلمين ولا ننسى أنّ باكورة أحلامه بـ»الخلافة» بدأت مع تصريحه بالقول «سنصلّي في مسجد الأمويين» وبعد عشر سنين حوّل متحف آية صوفيا إلى مسجد لإرضاء غروره الذي مسحت به الأرض تحت نعال قديسي الجيش السوري وحلفائه..

في المحصّلة يمكننا القول إنه وبعد مرور قرن من الزمن على سقوط السلطنة العثمانية، تعيد السياسات الأردوغانية الهواجس الغربية والعربية تجاه الميراث العثماني الاستعماري، أو ما بات يُعرَف بـ»العثمانية الجديدة»، التي تتلخص في التدخل بالشؤون الداخلية للدول وانتهاج سياسة تخريبية وتدميرية بما يتوافق مع طموحات أردوغان وأحلامه العدوانية التي تشكل تهديداً مباشراً للأمن الاقليمي والدولي.

أما في الداخل التركي، فبدأ قناع أردوغان «الديني» يتلاشى وحتى ما يصرّح به من «كذبات» إن كانت دينية أو قومية بدأت تتكشّف على حقيقتها أيضاً كعُقدة مرَضية عثمانية موروثة تغذيها دكتاتوريته الفردية مستنداً إلى حزب ذي أفكار أخوانية وسلطة تدير أكبر عملية قمع شاملة، من اعتقال وتهجير، للنخب الاجتماعية والسياسية والثقافية والاقتصادية لا مثيل لها في التاريخ التركي المعاصر، متمثلة بعشرات ألوف من الضباط والصحافيين والقضاة والأكاديميّين والاقتصاديين والإداريين. كما يخوض حرباً قومية تدميرية ضدّ مناطق الأكراد رغم وقوف الكثير من وجوه النخب التركية، ولا سيما الثقافية، ضدّ هذه الحرب وتجريمها. أضف إلى ذلك ما يعانيه الشعب التركي من تردّي معيشي وانهيار في العملة التركية وتراجع في الدخل الفردي والقومي ما يجعل وجوده في سدة الحكم تهديداً مباشر للوجود التركي في نظر معظم الشعب التركي.

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صراع مُستعرٌ بين الفرنجة والعثمانيين على التهام العرب؟

د. وفيق إبراهيم

هذه معادلة تعيد الى المشهد السياسي للمنطقة العربية الصراع العثماني، الاوروبي الذي يعمل على السيطرة على المنطقة العربية منذ ستة قرون متواصلة وسط «غربة» كاملة من اهل المنطقة.

فما الفارق بين سليم الاول ووريثه المعاصر الرئيس التركي رجب طيب أردوغان على مستوى المشروع السياسي؟ وهل هناك من تغيير جذري في السياسات الاميركية – الاوروبية المعاصرة عن الاحتلال البريطاني الفرنسي منذ القرن التاسع؟ وهل هو مختلف عن حروب الفرنجة التي احتلت الشرق العربي 192 عاماً ولم تتركه إلا بعد هزيمة تلقتها من المماليك، على الرغم من أن صلاح الدين سبقهم في ضربها في معركة حطين، لكن أولاده أعادوا تسليم المنطقة الى الفرنجة.

بذلك ينتقل هذا الشرق من احتلال عسكري الى سيطرة اقتصادية ملتزماً صمت الضعفاء والمساكين في إطار معادلة قوامها تحالف الخارج الغربي او التركي مع أنظمة الداخل لقهر شعوب هذه المنطقة. والهيمنة عليها اقتصادياً فتصبح جزءاً من النفوذ الجيوبوليتيكي الخاص بأي منتصر.

التاريخ هنا مستمر بأسماء جديدة وبالمعادلات القديمة نفسها، سليم الاول يعود متسللاً من مرج دابق نموذج 1516 الى سورية عبر إرهابيي الاخوان المسلمين وسراج ليبيا واخوان العراق واليمن ومصر متسربلاً بقناع الرئيس التركي أردوغان انما مع المشروع التاريخي نفسه.

وها هو الرئيس الفرنسي ماكرون يستعمل حادثة قتل مروّعة قتل فيها اسلاموي شيشاني مدرساً فرنسياً، ليؤسس فرصة تاريخية لإعادة تنظيم الفرنجة الجدد، هؤلاء بحاجة الى ايديولوجيا تختبئ المصالح الاقتصادية في زواياها؛ الامر الذي دفع بماكرون الى توجيه اتهامات الى الاسلام باعتبار انه يجتاز ازمة تاريخية على حد قوله وكانت كافية لتحريض الشارع الفرنسي أولاً والأوروبي ثانياً والغربي عموماً في دفاع عنيف عن طروحات ماكرون بدت وكأنها مشابهة للتحريض الذي أطلقته المراكز الدينية في الغرب لاستيلاد فكرة «الفرنجة» الأوروبيين الذاهبين الى الشرق لتحرير «الصليب» كما كانوا يزعمون.

بدورهم رفع العثمانيون شعار الخلافة الإسلامية كتبرير لاحتلالهم للشرق وشمال افريقيا مهددين اوروبا بإدراكهم أسوار فيينا العاصمة النمساوية.

هذا الصراع انحسم لمصلحة الغرب في القرن التاسع عشر بعد هيمنة تركية دامت أربعة قرون ونيف.

لكنه يعود في هذه المرحلة عبر الصراع على البحر المتوسط وسواحل بلدانه المليئة بالغاز، فكان لا بد من شعارات تبريرية وجدها أردوغان التركي في الدفاع عن هجمات غربية مفترضة على الإسلام. ودخل فيها ماكرون الفرنسي فريقاً أوروبياً يرى أن الإسلام اصبح يشكل ازمة عالمية.

اما أصحاب المنطقة وهم الغرب فيلوذون في صمت المذعورين، موجهين رفضاً ضعيفاً لهجوم ماكرون على الإسلام ومنتقدين الأداء التركي لمحاولاته احتلال مناطق عربية.

على المستوى العملي، لا يساوي موقف الدول العربية شيئاً، لأن الطرفين المتقاتلين يعبثان بأمن العالم العربي لأسباب تتعلق بنهجيهما الاستعماريين، فلا ماكرون عائد لاستعادة الصليب ولا أردوغان يريد حماية ديار الاسلام.

هناك اذاً إصرار من الطرفين على التهام العرب بالتبريرات التاريخية وما يؤكد ذلك هي تلك الاندفاعة الهجومية من مستشارة المانيا ورؤساء النمسا وفنلندا ورئيس وزراء بريطانيا باتجاه تأييد موقف ماكرون وكأن المرحلة مماثلة لمراحل تشكيل الفرنجة قبل تسوية قرون تقريباً.

ان ما يشجع هذه الدول على التستر بغطاء ديني، هي تلك الدول العربية التي لا تعمل إلا لحماية عائلاتها المالكة ورؤساء جمهورياتها على حساب المصالح الفعلية للدول.

وسد النهضة مثال على الانكسار العربي الراهن، لأنه يحتجز 74 مليار متر مكعب من مياه النيل في هذا السد الاثيوبي متسبباً بقطع اكثر من ثلاثين مليار متر من حصة مصر من هذا النهر البالغة 55 مليار متر مكعب تشكل 90 في المئة من المياه في مصر، وتهددها بضرب 70 في المئة من قطاعها الزراعي.

للتوضيح فإن اثيوبيا ابتدأت ببناء السد منذ تسعة عشر عاماً وخاض معها عهد الرئيس السيسي مفاوضات عميقة، تبين فيها أن إثيوبيا كانت تستعمل لعبة تقطيع الوقت لاستكمال السد، وهذا ما حدث على حساب الأمن الوطني المصري المهدد بشكل فعلي وسط لامبالاة عهد السيسي.

هناك اذاً معوقات امام العرب، تحتل فلسطين رأس لائحتها الى جانب الصراعات الدولية والإقليمية الأميركية والاوروبية والتركية والاسرائيلية على مواردها والتخلف الاقتصادي العميق، والديكتاتوريات والخلافات الداخلية، هذه عوامل تؤسس لأكثر من عثماني جديد وآخر من الفرنجة مع استمرار التموضع الاستراتيجي الاميركي في عشرات القواعد على اراضي العرب.

لا بد أيضاً من لفت النظر الى أن التذرع الغربي بالإرهاب الإسلاموي هو ذريعة لتبرير الاستعمار الغربي لأن هذا النوع من الاسلام هو غربي التأسيس يرقى الى الدعم البريطاني للوهابية في مطلع القرن العشرين، والاستثمار الاميركي في منظمة القاعدة في سبعينيات القرن الماضي بالاشتراك مع المخابرات السعودية.

كما يعود الى الاستثمار الاميركي – الاوروبي التركي في منظمات داعش وأشباهها في افغانستان والعراق وسورية وليبيا ومصر.

فهل يمكن للعرب مجابهة هذه المشاريع؟

وحدها سورية القادرة على تشكيل جبهة قوية في وجه الإرهاب الذي هزمته في ميادينها اكثر من مرة ولم يعد موجوداً إلا في مناطق السيطرة التركية والأميركية.

هي اذاً سورية التي يستطيع العرب دعمها لتواصل حملة التصدي للإرهاب الذي يكمن خلفه الاميركيون والاتراك المسنودون حالياً من الفرنجة الجدد.

وكما رحلوا بالقوة قبل ثمانية قرون، فلا بد أنهم راحلون مع مشاريعهم بقوة التضامن السوري بين الدولة والجيش والشعب.

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هل أسقط أردوغان سياساته التنسيقيّة مع الروس والإيرانيّين؟

 د.وفيق إبراهيم

اقتربت سياسات تركيا التوسعية من إصابة مصالح روسيا وإيران في أكثر من مدى. وتتوجّه الى التسبب بأذى داخلي لهما في علاقتيهما ببعض أقلياتها الدينية والقومية.

هذا يؤدي فوراً الى تصدّع التنسيق المعتمد بين البلدان الثلاثة انطلاقاً من ميادين سورية. وهو تنسيق كان يتطوّر لإدارة الازمة السورية دافعاً نحو ايجاد حلول عميقة لها.

بذلك يضع الرئيس التركي أردوغان بلاده في مواجهات قوية مع روسيا وإيران، ليس في الساحة السورية فقط، بل يتمدّد حكماً نحو ناغورني قره باغ بين ارمينيا واذربيجان وقد يتطور نحو آسيا الوسطى والقوقاز وأذربيجان الايرانية.

فهناك من يعتقد ان الاتراك يعملون لإعادة احياء الدولة العثمانية وذلك عبر اثارة العصبية التركمانية في الجزء الإيراني من اذربيجان واذربيجان المستقلة وذوي الأصول العثمانية التركية، في القوقاز ودول آسيا الوسطى وبعض جمهوريات الداخل الروسي، وأقلية الايغور الصينية، هذا دون نسيان بعض السوريين والعراقيين والليبيين من اصول تركمانية ايضاً.

فيبدو ان السياسة التركية الحالية تبذل جهوداً واسعة لتعبئة تراجعات النفوذ الاميركي وتسعى لحيازة دور أكبر مما تؤديه عادة الدول الاقليمية.

فهل نسي أردوغان أن للأميركيين والحلف الاطلسي قواعد عسكرية ونووية في بلاده؟ وهذه ليست من صفات الدول العظمى؟ وهل نسي ايضاً ان روسيا دولة عظمى يفصله عنها البحر الأسود، وايران دولة اقليمية لديها تحالفات عميقة في الشرق الاوسط والعالم الاسلامي؟

كان بإمكان الروسي والإيرانيين الاكتفاء بأسلوب المناوشات لو بقي الجشع التركي عند حدود البلاغة الخطابية العثمانية، لكنه اصبح يمتلك دوراً عسكرياً واسعاً في ناغورني قره باغ وأذربيجان «باكو» وآليات ثقافية واسعة مع اعلام دقيق يتوجه لاستثارة التركمان في اذربيجان الايرانية وآسيا الوسطى وبعض جمهوريات روسيا، متوجهاً اليها بما يشبه الدعوة الى التحرر من الاحتلالين الروسي والايراني، كما تقول الدعاية العثمانية.

ان هذا الانسداد في العلاقات بين روسيا وايران وتركيا، ظهر بوضوح في حركتين متتابعتين: الاولى القصف الجوي الروسي بالتنسيق مع الجيش السوري على موقع لفيلق الشام في منطقة الدويلة في ريف إدلب السورية المحتلة قتل ثمانين إرهابياً وجرح المئات.

والمعروف هنا أن الجيش التركي يحتل هذه المنطقة ويعتبر منظمة فيلق الشام الارهابية حركة عثمانية اخوانية صرفة تلعب دور إسناد للسياسات التركية من سورية الى ناغورني قره باغ وصولاً الى باكو اذربيجان.

هناك اذاً علاقات بنيوية بين السياسات التركية وفيلق الشام بما يكشف ان قصفه من قبل روسيا هو رسالة روسية علنية للسياسات العثمانية التركية، بضرورة تنفيسها لمرض التاريخ والرؤوس الحامية والعودة الى الالتزام بموازين القوى.

ماذا عن الحركة الثانية؟

تتسم السياسة الايرانية مع تركيا بمبدأ الواقعية السياسية الذي يعتبر الجوار الجغرافي بينهما ضرورة لمنطق الممكن من التسويات انطلاقاً من ان إيران مستهدفة من الاميركيين وحدودها البحرية مع الخليج والاحتلال الاميركي للعراق، الامر الذي يشجعها على تحسين العلاقات مع الاتراك، هذا ما يحدث في سورية من جهة وبتعاملها المتشابه مع الأقليات الكردية في المنطقة. يكفي ان حدود البلدين لم تشهد أي توتر او صدام منذ نصف قرن تقريباً.

هذا لا يعني وجود حالة تحالفية بينهما، وانما ضرورات تنسيقية جغرافية من جهة ولوجود مكونات قومية متقاربة في البلدين، فإذا كان الاتراك يراهنون على توتير الاوضاع العرقية في اذربيجان الإيرانية ذات الجذور التركمانية فهناك نحو 15 مليون علوي تركي مع أعداد من الشيعة بالإمكان الاعتماد عليهم للجم العثمانية الطورانية.

هناك اذاً مشروع تركي لتصديع ايران وآسيا الوسطى عبر تحريك العصبيات التركمانية فيها، ما أدى الى تحريك قطعات عسكرية إيرانية نحو الحدود مع باكو اذربيجان بما يشبه إنذاراً أخيراً للأتراك وأقلياتهم التركية بأن الجمهورية الاسلامية لن تتردد من اللجوء الى الأسلوب العسكري لوقف محاولات تغير الخريطة السياسية للقوقاز وآسيا الوسطى وناغورني قره باغ.

كان هناك تعويل تركي على انتماء باكو اذربيجان التركمانية الى المذهب الشيعي بشكل يفرض على طهران تأييدها او الصمت في أسوأ الاحتمالات.

لكن إيران الخبيرة في الاساليب العثمانية استوعبت الموقف بسرعة وقرأته على انه محاولة لتجديد دولة بني عثمان على اساس العصبية التركمانية. وهذا يؤذي الجمهورية الاسلامية في تعدديتها القومية ودورها السياسي الإقليمي.

وهذا ما استشعر به الروس الذين لاحظوا ميلاً تركياً لدفع باكو أذربيجان الى خرق كل وقف لإطلاق النار مع الأرمن مع مواصلة الحرب وسط خطاب تركي عنصري، يحاول تصوير المعركة أنها بين تركمان وأرمن من جهة وبين مسيحيين ومسلمين من جهة ثانية.

لذلك يحاول أردوغان تقديم بلاده على انها نصيرة الإسلام في وجه الرئيس الفرنسي ماكرون الذي أساء إليه واي محاولة اخرى.

هناك انعكاس سريع مرتقب للتدهور بين الروس والإيرانيين وبين الأتراك في ميادين سورية. وهذا يهدّد التنسيق القائم بينهم والمستمر منذ أربع سنوات تقريباً.

فهل سقط هذا التنسيق الثلاثي أو أنه في الطريق التدريجي اليه؟

لم يعد لدى الاتراك إلا العودة الى اتفاق آستانا وإلغاء الورم التاريخي الذي ينتابهم على قاعدة الانسحاب من إدلب مع منظماتهم الارهابية، او الاستمرار في أساليب المراوغة وهذه تدفع بدورها نحو دور روسي حربي عميق مع الجيش العربي السوري ينفذ خطة القضاء التدريجية على كامل المنظمات الإرهابية من إدلب وعفرين.

يبدو أن الاتراك يترقبون عودة أميركية بعد الانتخابات الرئاسية تدعمهم في سياساتهم التركمانية، اما اذا لم تتم هذه العودة فإن تركيا في طريقها للتراجع عن مشاريعها في القوقاز واذربيجان على اساس الاكتفاء فقط بمطامعها في البحر المتوسط والسعي الى اقتطاع ادوار عبر الروس في سورية والاميركيين في العراق.

AZERBAIJAN IS IN ANGER. ARMENIANS OPEN FIRE AT ITS TROOPS PEACEFULLY ADVANCING IN NAGORNO-KARABAKH

South Front

Azerbaijan Is In Anger. Armenians Open Fire At Its Troops Peacefully  Advancing In Nagorno-Karabakh: izwest — LiveJournal
Video Here

The US-brokered humanitarian ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh collapsed immediately after its start on the morning of October 26. Clashes between the sides did not stop even for a minute and Yerevan and Baku immediately accused each other of sabotaging the peace efforts.

As of the evening of October 26, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan officially stated that the US-brokered ceasefire failed, while Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that “the mediators must either achieve the withdrawal of occupying forces, or move away from the path of Baku”. It seems that the estimation of the Karabakh conflict as an ‘easy case’ by US President Donald Trump did not stand the test of reality.

In a separate statement, the Azerbaijani President said that Turkish F-16 jets, which are deployed in Azerbaijan (just a few days ago the top leadership of Turkey and Azerbaijan was denying this) will be employed to protect his country in response to any act of ‘foreign aggression’. It is interesting to look how the official narrative of Azerbaijan and Turkey has been shifting from claims about Turkish non-involvement in the war to admitting the direct military participation of Ankara in the military escalation. The town of Qubadli and nearby villages were also captured by Azerbaijan as its media and diplomats were blaming Armenians for ceasefire violations.

Apparently, the coward Armenian forces violate the ceasefire regime by attacking the peacefully advancing Azerbaijani troops. The setbacks in the south of Karabakh was confirmed by the Armenian Defense Ministry, but insisted that the situation is still under full control. If this is under full control, it’s hard to imagine how the Armenian side sees the variant of the situation when all is not under control.

During the past days, the Azerbaijani-Turkish bloc continued its advance towards the Lachin corridor, a strategic area where the shortest route between Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic is located. According to reports, after the recent gains Azerbaijani troops are now about 10-12km from the area. Azerbaijani forces are now working to secure their recent gains and establish strong points there. After this, they will likely establish fire control over the route thus undermining the Armenian ability to send supplies to Karabakh. Then, the Turkish-Azerbaijani bloc will likely push towards Stepanakert.

Armenian sources ease the retreats with regular statements about the losses of Azerbaijan accompanied by videos and photos from the ground. For example, on October 26, the Armenian Defense Ministry released a new report claiming that Azerbaijan lost 6,674 troops, 600 armoured vehicles, 6 rocket launchers, 24 planes, 16 helicopters and 220 UAVs since the start of the conflict. While the numbers provided by both sides are expectedly overestimated, the evidence demonstrates that Azerbaijani forces in fact suffered notable casualties in their advance on Karabakh. The problem for Yerevan is that Armenian forces experienced losses of similar or even higher scale.

Members of Turkish-backed militant groups that remain in Syria and are yet to move to some conflict zone to die for Erdogan’s Neo-Ottoman dream also suffer hard times. At least 78 Turkish-backed militants were killed and over 100 others were injured in a recent series of Russian airstrikes on their training camps and HQs in the Syrian region of Idlib. The main strikes targeted a former air defense base of the Syrian Army near Al-Duvayla. This area is controlled by Turkish-backed militants and the former military base itself is currently a training camp for members of Faylaq ash-Sham. Syrian sources link the increased number of Russian strikes on Turkish proxies in Syria with their deployment to the Nagorno-Karabakh combat zone to support Azerbaijan.

Russia sees the increase of the presence of radical militant groups there as an unacceptable scenario. It is likely that this lies behind the recent decrease of reports and evidence on the deployment of Turkish proxies from Syria to Karabakh. The Turkish-Azerbaijani bloc estimate the risks and prefers to avoid the situation of the involvement of some third power in the conflict on the side of the Armenians.

Related

Turkey to Send Troops to Combat Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh?

By Stephen Lendman

Global Research, October 23, 2020

Like the US, Turkey’s Erdogan pursues interests at the expense of peace and stability.

He favors war for extending Turkey’s borders to further his neo-Ottoman aims.

He, his family members and regime profited earlier from stolen Syrian oil.

He gave ISIS and other terrorists safe haven in Turkish territory, providing them with weapons, other material support, and a launching pad for attacks on Syrian soldiers and civilians.

Turkey under Erdogan is a fascist police state — speech, media and academic freedoms they way they should be banned.

So is dissent. Anyone publicly criticizing or insulting him risks prosecution for terrorism, espionage or treason, including children.

As long as he doesn’t act against US interests, as a NATO member and in other ways, his tyrannical rule and regional destabilizing actions are tolerated — if only barely.

On Wednesday, his Vice President Fuat Oktay said Ankara is ready to send troops to back Azerbaijan’s war on Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh (NK below).

In response to Turkey’s deployment of armed and directed jihadists to combat Armenian forces in NK, the country’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called on regional countries to unite against them and their Turkish paymaster.

“Regretably (they) have not responded to this reality seriously enough yet,” Pashinyan added.

“It is beyond doubt that the presence of foreign terrorists will pose a threat to the region in the future.”

“The region’s countries must deal with this issue more seriously.”

The Erdogan regime is also involved militarily in NK by providing Baku with command and control services, training of its military forces, and heavy weapons for warmaking.

He and hardliners surrounding him support war, not resolution in NK.

Pashinyan stressed it, saying “the Karabakh question…cannot have a diplomatic solution.”

“Everything that is diplomatically acceptable to the Armenian side…is not acceptable to Azerbaijan…”

Baku’s ruling authorities intend endless war until Armenian forces are driven from NK — no matter the human toll, according to comments from its leadership.Turkey’s Involvement in Nagorno-Karabakh

As Azeri forces advance, civilians in harm’s way are caught in the crossfire.

Unconfirmed reports suggest that they’ve taken control of areas bordering Iran and Armenia’s international border — increasing the risk of conflict spilling into both countries.

Armenia’s Defense Ministry spokesman Artsrun Hovhannisyan accused Azerbaijan of sending “small…subversive groups…into villages and towns, film(ing) themselves there, spread(ing) those images…to feed their society. But, unfortunately, this also affects us.”

While conflict continues, foreign ministers of both warring sides will meet with Trump regime’s Pompeo for talks in Washington on Friday.

Yet on Tuesday, Azeri President Ilham Aliyev said the following:

“We are fighting on our own land, giving martyrs and restoring our territorial integrity. These steps will continue to be taken.”

“Armenia must declare before it is too late that it is withdrawing from the occupied territories. After that the fighting may stop.”

From the above remarks and two failed Russian/Minsk Group arranged ceasefire, Aliyev is unwilling to compromise on his aims in NK.

With support from Turkey, including Erdogan’s willingness to send troops if asked, Aliyev rejects diplomacy while sending his foreign minister to discuss ceasefire with his Russian, French and US counterparts.

According to the Asia Times, Erdogan’s support for Azerbaijan is driven by energy interests in competition with Russia.

An unnamed Erdogan advisor said “Russia is neither an ally, nor an enemy, but we can’t negotiate if we are too dependent on them, especially when it comes to energy.”

“We have vital interests to protect,” including two pipelines from Azerbaijan to Europe, one for oil, the other for gas.

One runs close to NK, the other near northern Armenia, the unnamed advisor close to Erdogan adding:

“We can’t afford losing our sight on what’s going on around our pipelines in the Caucasus, especially in the Tavush region, where there have been several clashes (with Armenia) over the last years.”

The so-called BTC oil pipeline is owned by Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Britain’s BP.

The South Caucasus Pipeline runs from Azerbaijan’s Caspian Sea field to Turkey, and Georgia — soon as well to Italy, Greece and Bulgaria.

Earlier in October, Erdogan accused Armenia of endangering supplies of energy to Turkey and other European countries.

Oil and gas pipelines from Azerbaijan to Europe are only endangered by its preemptive war on Armenia in NK.

No danger would exist if conflict resolution ended weeks of fighting.

Russia also supplies gas to Turkey through Turkstream 1.

Turkstream 2 is under construction, completion expected around yearend.

Azerbaijan will compete with Russia for the European natural gas market.

Moscow prioritizes cooperation with other nations, confrontation with none.

Turkey’s Erdogan prioritizes the advancement of his neo-Ottoman interests.

*

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Award-winning author Stephen Lendman lives in Chicago. He can be reached at lendmanstephen@sbcglobal.net. He is a Research Associate of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG)

His new book as editor and contributor is titled “Flashpoint in Ukraine: US Drive for Hegemony Risks WW III.”

http://www.claritypress.com/LendmanIII.html

Visit his blog site at sjlendman.blogspot.com.The original source of this article is Global ResearchCopyright © Stephen Lendman, Global Research, 2020

Can and should Russia stop the war in the Caucasus?

October 09, 2020

THE SAKER • OCTOBER 10, 2020 

This war is officially a war between Azerbaijan and the (unrecognized) Republic of Nagorno Karabakh (RNK) aka “Republic of Artsakh” (ROA) which I shall refer to simply as Nagorno Karabakh or “NK”. As is often the case, the reality is much more complicated. For one thing, Erdogan’s Turkey has been deeply involved since Day 1 (and, really, even much before that) while Armenia has been backing NK to the hilt since the breakup of the Soviet Union. It is even worse: Turkey is a member of NATO while Armenia is a member of the CSTO. Thus a war started over a relatively small and remote area could, in theory, trigger an international nuclear war. The good news here is that nobody in NATO or the CSTO wants such a war, especially since technically speaking the NK is not part of Armenia (Armenia has not even recognized this republic so far!) and, therefore, not under the protection of the CSTO. And since there have been no attacks on Turkey proper, at least so far, NATO also has no reason to get involved.

I should mention here that in terms of international law, NK is an integral part of Azerbaijan. Still, almost everybody agrees that there is a difference between NK proper and the kind of security zone the army of NK created around NK (see map)

Can and should Russia stop the war in the Caucasus?

(note: the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic is part of Azerbaijan)

The reality on the ground, however, is very different, so let’s look at the position of each actor in turn, beginning with the party which started the war: Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan has been reforming and rearming its military since the Azeri forces got comprehensively defeated in the 1988-1994 war. Furthermore, for President Aliev this war represents what might well be the best and last chance to defeat the NK and Armenian forces. Most observers agree that should Aliev fail to achieve at least an appearance of victory he will lose power.

Armenia would have been quite happy to keep the status quo and continue to form one country with the NK de facto while remaining two countries de jure. Still, living in the tough and even dangerous “neighborhood” of the Caucasus, the Armenians never forgot that they are surrounded by more or less hostile countries just like they also remained acutely aware of Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman ideology which, sooner or later, would make war inevitable.

Iran, which is often forgotten, is not directly involved in the conflict, at least so far, but has been generally sympathetic to Armenia, primarily because Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman ideology represents a danger for the entire region, including Iran.

Turkey has played a crucial behind the scenes role in the rearmament and reorganization of Azeri forces. Just as was the case in Libya, Turkish attack drones have been used with formidable effectiveness against NK forces, in spite of the fact that the Armenians have some very decent air defenses. As for Erdogan himself, this war is his latest attempt to paint himself as some kind of neo-Ottoman sultan which will reunite all the Turkic people under his rule.

One of the major misconceptions about this conflict is the assumption that Russia has always been, and will always be, on the side of Armenia and the NK, but while this was definitely true for pre-1917 Russia, this is not the case today at all. Why?

Let’s examine the Russian position in this conflict.

First, let’s get the obvious out of the way: Armenia (proper, as opposed to NK) is a member of the CSTO and should anybody (including Azerbaijan and/or Turkey) attack Armenia, Russia would most definitely intervene and stop the attack, either by political or even by military means. Considering what Turkey has done to the Armenian people during the infamous Armenian Genocide of 1914-1923 this makes perfectly good sense: at least now the Armenian people know that Russia will never allow another genocide to take place. And the Turks know that too.

And yet, things are not quite that simple either.

For example, Russia did sell a lot of advanced weapon systems to Azerbaijan (see herefor one good example). In fact, relations between Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev are famously very warm. And while it is true that Azerbaijan left the CSTO in 1999, Russia and Azerbaijan have retained a very good relationship which some even characterize as a partnership or even an alliance.

Furthermore, Azerbaijan has been a much better partner to Russia than Armenia, especially since the Soros-financed “color revolution” of 2018 which put Nikol Pashinian in power. Ever since Pashinian got to power, Armenia has been following the same kind of “multi-vector” policy which saw Belarus’ Lukashenko try to ditch Russia and integrate into the EU/NATO/US area of dominance. The two biggest differences between Belarus and Armenia are a) Belarusians and Russians are the same people and b) Russia cannot afford to lose Belarus whereas Russia has really zero need for Armenia.

On the negative side, not only has Azerbaijan left the CSTO in 1999, but Azerbaijan has also joined the openly anti-Russian GUAM Organization (which is headquartered in Kiev).

Next, there is the Turkey-Erdogan factor as seen from Russia. Simply put, the Russians will never trust any Turk who shares Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman worldview and ideology. Russia has already fought twelve full-scale wars against the Ottomans and she has no desire to let the Turks trigger another one (which they almost did when they shot down a Russian Su-24M over northern Syria). Of course, Russia is much more powerful than Turkey, at least in military terms, but in political terms an open war against Turkey could be disastrous for Russian foreign and internal policy objectives. And, of course, the best way for Russia to avoid such a war in the future is to make absolutely sure that the Turks realize that should they attack they will be suffering a crushing defeat in a very short time. So far, this has worked pretty well, especially after Russia saved Erdogan from the US-backed coup against him.

Some observers have suggested that Russia and Armenia being Christian, the former has some kind of moral obligation towards the latter. I categorically disagree. My main reason to disagree here is that Russians now are acutely aware of the disgusting lack of gratitude of our (supposed) “brothers” and (supposed) “fellow Christians” have shown as soon as Russia was in need.

Most Armenians are not Orthodox Christians, but members of the Armenian Apostolic Church, which are miaphysites/monophysites. They are also not Slavs.

The ONLY slavic or Orthodox people who did show real gratitude for Russia have been the Serbs. All the rest of them have immediately rushed to prostitute themselves before Uncle Shmuel and have competed with each other for the “honor” of deploying US weapons systems targeted at Russia. The truth is that like every superpower, Russia is too big and too powerful to have real “friends” (Serbia being a quite beautiful exception to this rule). The Russian Czar Alexander III famously said that “Russia only has two true allies: her army and her navy”. Well, today the list is longer (now we could add the Aerospace forces, the FSB, etc.), but in terms of external allies or friends, the Serbian people (as opposed to some of the Serbian leaders) are the only ones out there which are true friends of Russia (and that, in spite of the fact that under Elstin and his “democratic oligarchs” Russia shamefully betrayed a long list of countries and political leaders, including Serbia).

Then there is the religious factor which, while crucial in the past, really plays no role whatsoever in this conflict. Oh sure, political leaders on both sides like to portray themselves as religious, but this is just PR. The reality is that both the Azeris and the Armenians place ethnic considerations far above any religious ones, if only because, courtesy of the militant atheism of the former USSR, many, if not most, people in Armenia, Azerbaijan and even Russia nowadays are agnostic secularists with no more than a passing interest for the “spiritual values which shaped their national identity” (or something along these lines).

One major concern for Russia is the movement of Turkish-run Takfiris from Syria to Azerbaijan. The Russians have already confirmed that this has taken place (the French also reported this) and, if true, that would give Russia the right to strike these Takfiris on Azeri soil. So far, this threat is minor, but if it becomes real, we can expect Russian cruise missiles to enter the scene.

Finally, there are major Azeri and Armenian communities in Russia, which means two things: first, Russia cannot allow this conflict to sneak across the borders and infect Russia and, second, there are millions of Russians who will have ties, often strong ones, to both of these countries.

Though they are not currently officially involved, we still need to look, at least superficially, at the Empire’s view of this conflict. To summarize it I would say that the Empire is absolutely delighted with this crisis which is the third one blowing up on Russia’s doorstep (the other two being the Ukraine and Belarus). There is really very little the Empire can do against Russia: the economic blockade and sanctions totally failed, and in purely military terms Russia is far more powerful than the Empire. Simply put: the Empire simply does not have what it takes to take on Russia directly, but setting off conflicts around the Russia periphery is really easy.

For one thing, the internal administrative borders of the USSR bear absolutely no resemblance to the places of residence of the various ethnicities of the former Soviet Union. Looking at them one would be excused for thinking that they were drawn precisely to generate the maximal amount of tension between the many ethnic groups that were cut into separate pieces. There is also no logic in accepting the right of the former Soviet Republics to secede from the Soviet Union, but then denying the same right to those local administrative entities which now would want to separate from a newly created republic which they don’t want to be part of.

Second, many, if not most, of the so-called “countries” and “nations” which suddenly appeared following the collapse of the Soviet Union have no historical reality whatsoever. As a direct result, these newborn “nations” had no historical basis to root themselves in, and no idea what independence really means. Some nations, like the Armenians, have deep roots as far back as antiquity, but their current borders are truly based on nothing at all. Whatever may be the case, it has been extremely easy for Uncle Shmuel to move into these newly independent states, especially since many (or even most) of these states saw Russia as the enemy (courtesy of the predominant ideology of the Empire which was imposed upon the mostly clueless people of the ex-Soviet periphery). The result? Violence, or even war, all around that periphery (which the Russians think of as their “near abroad”).

I think that most Russian people are aware that while there has been a major price to pay for this, the cutting away of the ex-Soviet periphery from Russia has been a blessing in disguise. This is confirmed by innumerable polls which show that the Russian people are generally very suspicious of any plans involving the use of the Russian Armed Forces outside Russia (for example, it took all of Putin’s “street cred” to convince the Russian people that the Russian military intervention in Syria was a good idea).

There is also one more thing which we must always remember: for all the stupid US and western propaganda about Russia and, later, the USSR being the “prison of the people” (small nations survived way better in this “prison” than they did under the “democratic” rule of European colonists worldwide!), the truth is that because of the rabidly russophobic views of Soviet Communists (at least until Stalin – he reversed this trend) the Soviet “peripheral” Republics all lived much better than the “leftover Russia” which the Soviets called the RSFSR. In fact, the Soviet period was a blessing in many ways for all the non-Russian republics of the Soviet Union and only now, under Putin, has this trend finally been reversed. Today Russia is much richer than the countries around her periphery and she has no desire to squander that wealth on a hostile and always ungrateful periphery. The bottom line is this: Russia owes countries such as Armenia or Azerbaijan absolutely nothing and they have no right whatsoever to expect Russia to come to their aid: this won’t happen, at least not unless Russia achieves a measurable positive result from this intervention.

Still, let’s now look at the reasons why Russia might want to intervene.

First, this is, yet again, a case of Erdogan’s megalomania and malevolence resulting in a very dangerous situation for Russia. After all, all the Azeris need to do to secure an overt Turkish intervention is to either attack Armenia proper, which might force a Russian intervention or, alternatively, be so severely beaten by the Armenians that Turkey might have to intervene to avoid a historical loss of face for both Aliev and Erdogan.

Second, it is crucial for Russia to prove that the CSTO matters and is effective in protecting CSTO member states. In other words, if Russia lets Turkey attack Armenia directly the CSTO would lose all credibility, something which Russia cannot allow.

Third, it is crucial for Russia to prove to both Azerbaijan and Armenia that the US is long on hot air and empty promises, but can’t get anything done in the Caucasus. In other words, the solution to this war has to be a Russian one, not a US/NATO/EU one. Once it becomes clear in the Caucasus that, like in the Middle-East, Russia has now become the next “kingmaker” then the entire region will finally return to peace and a slow return to prosperity.

So far the Russians have been extremely careful in their statements. They mostly said that Russian peacekeepers could only be deployed after all the parties to this conflict agree to their deployment. Right now, we are still very far away from this.

Here is what happened so far: the Azeris clearly hoped for a short and triumphant war, but in spite of very real advances in training, equipment, etc the Azeri Blitzkrieg has clearly failed in spite of the fact that the Azeri military is more powerful than the NK+Armenian one. True, the Azeris did have some initial successes, but they all happened in small towns mostly located in the plain. But take a look at this topographic map of the area of operations and see for yourself what the biggest problem for the Azeris is:

Almost all of NK is located in the mountains (hence the prefix “nagorno” which means “mountainous”) and offensive military operations in the mountains are truly a nightmare, even for very well prepared and equipped forces (especially in the winter season, which is fast approaching). There are very few countries out there who could successfully conduct offensive operations in mountains, Russia is one of them, and Azerbaijan clearly is not.

Right now both sides agree on one thing only: only total victory can stop this war. While politically that kind of language makes sense, everybody knows that this war will not end up in some kind of total victory for one side and total defeat of the other side. The simple fact is that the Azeris can’t overrun all of NK while the Armenians (in Armenia proper and in the NK) cannot counter-attack and defeat the Azeri military in the plains.

Right now, and for as long as the Azeris and the Armenians agree that they won’t stop at anything short of a total victory, Russia simply cannot intervene. While she has the military power to force both sides to a total standstill, she has no legal right to do so and please remember that, unlike the US, Russia does respect international law (if only because she has no plans to become the “next US” or some kind of world hegemon in charge of maintaining the peace worldwide). So there are only two possible options for a Russian military intervention:

  1. A direct (and confirmed by hard evidence) attack on the territory of Armenia
  2. Both the Azeris and the Armenians agree that Russia ought to intervene.

I strongly believe that Erdogan and Aliev will do whatever it takes to prevent option one from happening (while they will do everything in their power short of an overt attack on Armenia to prevail). Accidents, however, do happen, so the risk of a quick and dramatic escalation of the conflict will remain until both sides agree to stop.

Right now, neither side has a clear victory and, as sad as I am to write these words, both sides have enough reserves (not only military, but also political and economic) to keep at it for a while longer. However, neither side has what it would take to wage a long and bloody positional war of attrition, especially in the mountain ranges. Thus both sides probably already realize that this one will have to stop, sooner rather than later (according to some Russian experts, we are only talking weeks here).

Furthermore, there are a lot of very dangerous escalations taking place, including artillery and missile strikes on cities and infrastructure objects. If the Armenians are really pushed against a wall, they could both recognize NK and hit the Azeri energy and oil/gas infrastructure with their formidable Iskander tactical ballistic missiles. Should that happen, then we can be almost certain that both the Azeris and the Turks will try to attack Armenia, with dramatic and most dangerous consequences.

This conflict can get much, much more bloody and much more dangerous. It is thus in the interests of the entire region (but not the US) to stop it. Will the Armenian lobby be powerful enough to pressure the US into a more helpful stance? So far, the US is, at least officially, calling all sides for a ceasefire (along with France and Russia), but we all know how much Uncle Shmuel’s word can be trusted. At least there is no public evidence that the US is pushing for war behind the scenes (the absence of such evidence does, of course, not imply the evidence of the absence of such actions!).

At the time of writing this (Oct. 9th) Russia has to wait for the parties to come back to reality and accept a negotiated solution. If and when that happens, there are options out there, including making NK a special region of Azerbaijan which would be placed under the direct protection of Russia and/or the CSTO with Russian forces deployed inside the NK region. It would even be possible to have a Turkish military presence all around the NK (and even some monitors inside!) to reassure the Azeris that Armenian forces have left the region and are staying out. The Azeris already know that they cannot defeat Armenia proper without risking a Russian response and they are probably going to realize that they cannot overrun NK. As for the Armenians, it is all nice and fun to play the “multi-vector” card, but Russia won’t play by these rules anymore. Her message here is simple: if you are Uncle Shmuels’s bitch, then let Uncle Shmuel save you; if you want us to help, then give us a really good reason why: we are listening”.

This seems to me an eminently reasonable position to take and I hope and believe that Russia will stick to it.

PS: the latest news is that Putin invited the Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia to Moscow for “consultations” (not “negotiations”, at least not yet) with Sergei Lavrov as a mediator. Good. Maybe this can save lives since a bad peace will always be better than a good war.

PPS: the latest news (Oct 9th 0110 UTC) is that the Russians have forced Armenia and Azerbaijan to negotiate for over thirteen hours, but at the end of the day, both sides agreed to an immediate ceasefire and for substantive negotiations to begin. Frankly, considering the extreme hostility of the parties towards each other, I consider this outcome almost miraculous. Lavrov truly earned his keep today! Still, we now have to see if Russia can convince both sides to actually abide by this agreement. Here is a machine translation of the first Russian report about this outcome:

Statement by the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia

In response to the appeal of the President of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin and in accordance with the agreements of the President of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin, President of the Republic of Azerbaijan I.G. Aliyev and Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia N.V. Pashinyan, the parties agreed on the following steps :

1. A ceasefire is declared from 12:00 pm on October 10, 2020 for humanitarian purposes for the exchange of prisoners of war and other detained persons and bodies of the dead, mediated and in accordance with the criteria of the International Committee of the Red Cross.

2. The specific parameters of the ceasefire regime will be agreed upon additionally.

3. The Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia, with the mediation of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, on the basis of the basic principles of the settlement, begin substantive negotiations with the aim of reaching a peaceful settlement as soon as possible.

4. The parties confirm the invariability of the format of the negotiation process.

مقاتلو الفصائل المسلحة السورية: انكشاريو «السلطنة» التركية الجديدة!

د. عدنان منصور

في الأول من هذا الشهر، وفي كلمة له مع بداية العام التشريعي الجديد للبرلمان التركي، أعلن الرئيس رجب طيب أردوغان، تمسّك بلاده بمحافظة إدلب، وعدم التخلي عنها لأسباب عديدة، منها حماية البلاد من تسلل الإرهابيين، وتوفير الأمن للنازحين المدنيين في المنطقة!

وقال إنّ هدف تركيا، هو وقف الهجمات، وجعل المنطقة والحدود التركية آمنة.

كلام أردوغان في البرلمان التركي، جاء بعد توقف المفاوضات على مستوى الخبراء العسكريين بين روسيا وتركيا، والتي اقتصرت حتى الآن، على جولة واحدة جرت يومي 15 و16 أيلول من الشهر الفائت، حيث رفض الأتراك بشكل مطلق وحاسم، الاقتراح الروسي القاضي بسحب القوات التركية من أربع نقاط رئيسة من جنوب طريق اللاذقية ـ حلب، والذي يُعرف بـ M4.

تركيا قرّرت الحفاظ على قواتها بحكم الأمر الواقع، والاستمرار في احتلال أجزاء في العراق وسورية وليبيا، والتواجد في لبنان (من خلال القوات الدولية اليونيفيل)، وفي مالي وجمهورية أفريقيا الوسطى ضمن بعثة الأمم المتحدة العاملة فيهما، والإصرار على بقائها العسكري في شمال سورية، لا سيما في محافظة إدلب، بذريعة وجود تنظيمات إرهابية كداعش، وفصائل كردية عديدة أبرزها:

حزب العمال الكردستاني PKK، و«قسد” (قوات سورية الديمقراطية)، وغيرها، ما يهدّد بزعم أنقرة أمن واستقرار تركيا.

لكن أن تقوم تركيا، بنقل مقاتلين سوريين وغير سوريين، من الفصائل المسلحة الإرهابية إلى ليبيا، وقبلها الإتيان بعناصر إرهابية من أنحاء العالم للقتال ضدّ النظام السوري، وبعد ذلك إرسال جماعات أخرى منهم الى ميادين القتال في أذربيجان، ونشرهم على جبهة الحرب الأرمينية ـ الأذربيجانية، فهذا يسقط بالكامل الحجج التركية الواهية من أساسها في محاربة الإرهاب، ويكشف مدى النفاق، وزيف ادّعاءات القيادة التركية، من أنّ قواتها المحتلة لأراض سورية، تهدف الى محاربة الإرهاب، وتأمين سلامة تركيا وحدودها.

لقد تحوّل المقاتلون الإرهابيون، الى فصائل في يد تركيا، تديرهم، وتحرّكهم، وتأمرهم، وتوجههم، وتستخدمهم أينما كان، وكيفما تشاء، تحوّلهم الى “انكشاريين” من طراز جديد، يقاتلون خارج بلدانهم من أجل مصالحها وأهدافها التوسعية، ومصالحها الاستراتيجية، وهم ينفذون سياساتها، ويزيدون من شهيّتها التوسعية خارج حدودها.

يأتي هذا في الوقت الذي تعزز فيه تركيا من احتلالها العسكري لإدلب وحواضرها، بأكثر من عشرة آلاف آلية عسكرية متنوعة، بالإضافة الى الحشود العسكرية التي انتشرت في الآونة الأخيرة.

هل يعلم مقاتلو الفصائل الإرهابية المسلحة، الذين ارتموا في أحضان تركيا وغيرها، أنهم ليسوا إلا أداة في خدمة العثماني الجديد، يؤدّون فريضتهم له، جاعلين أنفسهم له مطية يركبها في أيّ وقت، مقابل حفنة من المال، يدفعها لهم كمرتزقة؟! مال يخضع للعرض والطلب حسب المهمات الموكولة إليهم، والأماكن التي سيتواجدون فيها وفق أوامر سيدهم.

أين هي “وطنية” و”عروبة” الفصائل المسلحة السورية التي ارتمت في أحضان التركي، والتي حاربت النظام السوري منذ سنوات، وما هي حجتها اليوم عندما ترى المقاتلين والإرهابيين، ينغمسون في حروب لا شأن لهم بها. إلا لكون سيدهم التركي يريد منهم ذلك! هذه الفصائل تثبت مرة أخرى وبشكل قاطع، أنها ومنذ اليوم الأول لاندلاع القتال في سورية، ما كانت إلا مجموعات عميلة، مأجورة، تحرّكها قيادات مرتزقة مدفوعة الثمن من الخارج. وها هي اليوم. تحارب نيابة عن تركيا، بدماء عربية، تزجّ نفسها، وتنغمس في أتون حرب لا ناقة لها ولا جمل.

فليفهم المواطن العراقي والسوري واللبناني والليبي، وكلّ مواطن عربي، تورّط في الصراع الإقليمي، وغرزت أقدامه في المستنقع السوري والتركي. انّ تركيا التي تحمل في الشكل، شعارات براقة، ليست في الحقيقة إلا وسيلة لتطلّ منها على العالمين العربي والإسلامي، لنسترجع الماضي، “وأمجاد” السلطنة العثمانية، التي عانت منها الشعوب التي رزحت تحت نيرها، وحصدت منها الويلات، والكوارث والفقر، والظلم والاستبداد.

السلطان العثماني الجديد يطلّ برأسه مجدّداً، يحارب بمرتزقته من “الانكشاريين” الجدد، الذين جلبهم من هنا وهناك، ليوسّع دائرة نفوذه على امتداد العالم الإسلامي، عله يظفر بقيادته، ويتوّج نفسه “خليفة”، حامياً له، و”راعياً صالحاً للحرمين الشريفين في مكة والمدينة!

وزير سابق

AZERBAIJANI FORCES PUSH TO SEIZE LARGEST KARABAKH CITY. DRONES STRIKE TARGETS INSIDE ARMENIA

Azerbaijani Forces Push To Seize Largest Karabakh City. Drones Strike  Targets Inside Armenia - YouTube
Video

On October 2, the Armenian-Azerbaijani war entered its 5th day. Forces of the Azerbaijani military, supported by Turkey, continued their attempts to capture the contested Nagorno-Karabakh Region and to dismantle the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, which is overwhelmingly populated by Armenians.

Intense artillery duels and Azerbaijani airstrikes are being reported across the entire frontline in Karabakh, and even near some parts of the Azerbaijani-Armenian border. Nonetheless, the main clashes still take place in the districts of Fizuli and Jabrayil, where Azerbaijan have achieved their main gains capturing several positions from the Armenians. The Azerbaijani artillery together with Turkish-made and Israeli-made combat drones played a key role in the tactical successes of Azerbaijan on the battlefield.

On October 1, the Armenian military even claimed that 4 Azerbeijani combat drones entered Armenian airspace and 3 of them were shot down, allegedly by the S-300 system. Additionally, the Armenian Defense Ministry claimed that its forces had shot down three Azerbaijani fighter jets and two helicopters. The Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan dismissed the Armenian claims, calling them “complete nonsense and fake news.”

It insists that the Armenian side uses claims about attacks on its territory in an attempt to trigger the Collective Security Treaty Organization pact and obtain direct military support from Russia in the conflict in Karabakh, which formally is not its territory. What is even more strange, despite the 5 days of open war, the Armenian leadership has still not started the process for the recognition of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic or the official integration of the region into Armenia. Therefore, it has no even theoretical legal grounds to request CSTO help in a conflict on its territory.

Meanwhile, the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, known for its anti-Assad and pro-militant stance in the Syrian conflict, reported that dozens of Turkish-backed Syrian militants had been killed, injured or went missing while fighting against Armenian forces in Karabakh. According to the SOHR, 28 of them were killed and 62 others were injured or went missing. The report alleges that at least 850 Turkish-backed Syrian militants were deployed there. It should be noted that, according to Armenian estimates, their number is about 4,000. France and Russia also expressed their concern regarding the moving of militants to the region. In turn, Azerbaijani and Turkish media and officials insist that Armenia deploys members of Kurdish armed groups, considered to be terrorists by Ankara, to the combat zone. Nonetheless, these claims have not so far been supported by any evidence.

The self-styled Neo-Ottoman Empire of President Recent Tayyip Erdogan is on a full-scale propaganda offensive to instigate an Armenian-Azerbaijani war.

On October 1, the United States, Russia and France released a joint statement condemning the violence in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, calling on the sides to accept a ceasefire and return to the negotiating table. In response, President Erdogan made a fierce statement slamming the OSCE and claiming that Azerbaijan should continue its military push to capture the Nagorno-Karabakh region and thus the war with Armenia.

“I would like to declare that we are together with our brothers in Azerbaijan in their struggle for the liberation of their occupied land. The path to lasting peace in this region lies through the withdrawal of Armenia from all the spans of the Azerbaijani lands occupied by them,” Erdogan said addressing the Turkish Parliament. “Especially the so-called Minsk trio America, Russia, France and their seeking of a ceasefire in the face of this negative situation, which has been reflected these days because they have neglected this problem for nearly 30 years, is above all not acceptable,” he added.

In the best traditions of Turkish public diplomacy, Erdogan simultaneously accused Armenia of triggering the military escalation. Meanwhile, Turkish state media reported that during the recent phone call Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov that Turkey sees no reason for a ceasefire in Karabakh for as long as the region remains in the hands of Armenian forces.

Earlier, the Turkish leadership at the highest level declared that it is ready to provide any help, including military, to Baku. The Armenian side claims that Turkey is in fact participating in the war on the side of Azerbaijan.

Related

Terror Attack in Hasakah Countryside Kills Three Civilians at Least

September 25, 2020 Arabi Souri

Tal Halaf Ras Al Ayn Hasakah Syria car explosion

A terror attack against a civilians bus killed three civilians and injured 12 others in the vicinity of Ras Al Ain, in the northwestern province of Hasakah, at the borders with Turkey.

A booby-trapped parked car was detonated in a road in the village of Tal Halaf next to a moving civilian passenger bus which immediately killed three of the passengers, injured 12 others, some of who sustained severe and life-threatening injuries.

The explosion of the parked vehicle left the passengers’ bus completely torched and large material damage in the area.

Terror attack Tal Halaf Ras Al Ayn - Hasakah Syria

Terrorist groups loyal to the Turkish madman Erdogan infested the northern regions of Syria under the protection of the US forces and under false claims of ‘fighting terror’ referring to the other US and Israel-sponsored Kurdish separatists in the area. Turkey never fought ISIS or Nusra Front (al-Qaeda Levant) terrorist groups throughout the past 9.5 years, on the contrary, terrorists of these groups in their tens of thousands were hosted, trained, armed, and funded by and through the Turkish regime of Erdogan on Turkish territories then smuggled into Syria to kill and maim the Syrian people.

Neither Trump nor Erdogan, the two heads of criminality with forces operating in the northern regions of Syria, hide their ill intentions towards the Syrian people, Trump declares publicly he wants to steal the Syrian oil and Erdogan declares publicly he wants to be a leader in the ‘Greater Israel Project’ where he will steal more land and is dreaming of reviving the most-hated anti-Islamic Ottoman sultanate on the account of the people of the region of all religions. Both unindicted war criminals are depriving the Syrian people of their own riches in their country, especially the Syrian oil and Syrian wheat mainly coming from the Syrian northeastern provinces of Hasakah and Deir Ezzor.

The terrorist attacks as this one are meant to intimidate the local population to flee their homes after which Erdogan can Israelize the region with terrorists following his anti-Islamic Muslim Brotherhood doctrine.

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The hypothetical compromise: The end of 10 years of war in West Asia

Source

September 5, 2020 – 23:12

On my way back from the south to Beirut two months ago, Elea crossroad in Saida was closed. As I took the long [S] turn to be able to reach Beirut road again, I came across the Lebanese Army.

I stopped the car next to one of the officers and asked him: “What is going on? They are not more than 20 young men and women! How could they? Why don’t you send them back home? The officer said: “It is better to let them steam off!” He added: “It is the Turkish intelligence! They are sending millions of American dollars to start eruption and chaos in Lebanon.”

The Lebanese Army confirmed the information a while after the incident. On the 4th of July, Lebanese Interior Minister Mohammad Fahmi announced that four citizens, including two Syrians, were arrested as they were trying to smuggle $4 million. He said that the money was meant to finance “violent street movements”.

He added that instructions were given via WhatsApp to promote violence against the government.

The Turkish role in the Arab countries has been escalating since the war on Syria in 2011. It is not a secret anymore that tens of thousands of terrorist fighters entered Syria through Turkey and were protected by Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s regime. Unfortunately, the Arab region is not only facing a new Ottoman dream but also a new wave of colonialism led by the Americans and their puppets.  

In his speech on the 10th of Muharram, Ashura, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah several times repeated that Syria has won the war. Nasrallah’s description of Syria’s situation is shared with several observers, who perceive that Syria awaits the international political solution. Nonetheless, whether it is going to be a compromise, or it is going to coincide with Syrian political demands, we need to wait and see.

It is practical to understand the complications in West Asia. The region has been on a hot tin roof since the burst of the Arab eruptions in 2011.  The Americans titled the eruptions as “the Arab Spring” are now recognized as the “Arab Drought.” 

The area has been going through an endless chain of wars with terrorism and occupation forces, which exhausted it and awaiting compromises. Complicated and interrelated files, such as the war on Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Egypt, and Libya, need to be solved. However, there are two factors that delay the solution. The first is Turkey, which seems to have its own agenda. And the second is the so-called Deal of the Century. 

Today, the struggle has been fueled among the allies, who started the war on Libya, Syria, and Yemen. According to several resources, the powers that have led the wars are now accelerating the steps towards proper solutions. And each one of them is trying to save face and withdraw with minimum losses. 

Ten exhausting years have passed on West Asia (the Middle East). It witnessed the discovery of gas fields in the Eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea. Countries and their major companies are rushing to ensure shares in the new gas fields’ investments. Amongst them is Turkey, which is demanding a place in the eastern Mediterranean shores.

Accordingly, through the “Muslim Brotherhood” parties, Turkey has found a way to be part of the struggle in West Asia. It seems that Turkish President Erdogan is trying to undo the Ottoman’s defeat in the First World War. He is leading to constant wars against Arab countries. For most of the Arabs in the region, these wars are manipulating the Islamic world and leading to the destruction of their countries. It distorts the attention from the true enemy, which is “Israel,” and leads to the rise of Islamic “radicalism” and terrorism. 

Turkey has accelerated the struggle with Arab countries in Libya. Add to that, the current military exercises by Greece and Turkey over the rights of natural gas fields and the legal rights in the marine economic zones. The exercises have escalated EU awareness towards Turkish intentions. Subsequently, it led to further tension with the EU. 

The main force behind the current events in West Asia was the U.S. plan to create what they call” the New Middle East”. The plan was supposed to be applied by force in 2003, starting with the war on Iraq, but it failed. Combined regional forces resisted Iraq’s division, and the resistance was able to force the final withdrawal of the Americans in 2011. Ironically, in the same year, the Arab eruptions started in different Arab countries. 
Nonetheless, ten years of a brutal war on Syria revealed the following aims:

1-     The war mainly aimed to secure the safety of Israel. The Americans set in mind that controlling Syrian territories will eventually lead to controlling the flow of arms to Hezbollah.

2-     Controlling the gas and petrol pipes running through Syria to Turkey and Europe. By doing so, Iran, Russia, and eventually China fuel trade will be monitored and controlled.

3-     Changing the Arab regimes to pro-Turkish or Islamic Brotherhood’s governments and Saudi controlled ones to control the Arab decision in the Arab League and eventually dissolve it.

4-     Making way for the (Persian) Arab Gulf countries to sign peace treaties with Israel, this has already started with Abraham Accord.

5-     Giving Israel full control over gas and oil production and distribution through the Mediterranean Sea to Europe.

Not all of the goals set were achieved! The power of Turkey was controlled in Tunisia, Egypt, Sudan, and Libya. Furthermore, Europe now considers Turkey as a greater danger to the peace and security of West Asia, Northern Africa, and Greece. In addition, Europe was flooded by waves of migrants that crossed to the continent through Turkey, whom it used as a pressure card to manipulate Europe for greater benefits.

This has provoked different European countries that saw their interests were threatened, not only by Turkey but also by the United States. The latter has taken the world into economic chaos after the election of Donald Trump, who canceled all trade agreements and the nuclear agreement with Iran. Trump prohibited European trade with Iran and China and issued sanctions that disabled Europe.

Therefore, Iran’s successive diplomatic and legal victories at the UN Security Council in August were the first step towards a solution and a serious step towards peace in the region. They represent the first political triumph of the axis of resistance. The sequence of events is directing now towards another series of steps that should be perceived soon.

Soon the Syrian forces and its allies are heading towards implementing the Astana Accord by force. As soon as the Syrian Army is in control of Jesser al-Shogor and the Zawiah Mountain again, it will take control of the Syrian territories from Latakia to the Syrian-Iraqi borders, east of the Euphrates included.

Once the Syrian accomplishment is reached in Jesser al- Shogor, the Americans are not only leaving Iraq but Syria as well. In addition, the Iranians are leading now negotiations with Western powers through the German mediator concerning the nuclear agreements. However, an informed person revealed that the talks are including terms to end the American presence in Syria. This means that all foreign forces, including Turkish ones, are leaving, through force or voluntarily.

However, the Turks are negotiating with the Russians the possibility of keeping a couple of cities, but the Syrians refused it.

After the big blast in Beirut’s harbor on the 4th of August, the Turkish foreign minister offered to rebuild the harbor when he visited Beirut. This must-have provoked the French again. Erdogan’s new attempts to be involved in Lebanese affairs has raised doubts over his intentions for the European Union [EU], especially France. Paris tries not to allow Turkey to approach Beirut’s harbor. This would leave Turkey as the biggest loser in the region again. 

The upheaval Turkey created with Greece is leading it again to a conflict with Europe. Although Germany is leading to serious negotiations with all sides of the dispute, it seems that there are not any foreseen solutions in the near future. Europeans now identify Erdogan as the supporter of radical militant groups fighting in different Arab countries. These actions are of great concern to Europe. Rumor has it; Turkey now needs to be controlled. Western powers are planning to divide it again into two states, Western Turkey and Islamic Turkey. Of course, that is left for time to tell.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer.

RELATED NEWS

Al-Jaafari Calls on Guterres to Intervene and Stop Turkish Crimes Depriving Hasaka of Drinking Water

Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on 

21 August، 2020
New York, SANA

Syria’s Permanent Representative at the UN, Ambassador Bashar al-Jaafari, called on the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to intervene immediately and to exert all his efforts to stop the Turkish regime’s crime of cutting off drinking water for nearly one million Syrian citizens in Hasaka and its suburbs.

Al-Jaafari’s request came during a phone call with the UN Secretary- General on Friday to inform him about the catastrophic conditions in Hasaka city and its suburbs due to drinking water being cut off, stressing that the Turkish aggressive practice constitutes a war crime and a crime against the humanity.

Al-Jaafari pointed out to the Turkish occupation forces’ use of water as a weapon against civilians by depriving more than a million civilians in Hasaka city and its suburbs of potable water, as the Turkish occupation deliberately and repeatedly cut off water from Allouk station and the wells that feed them more than 15 times for several days, using this tactic to punish the people of Hasaka for their support of the Syrian government and their rejection of Turkish occupation.

He said that the situation caused by this crime is unbearable, particularly due to the hot weather and the threat of the Coronavirus pandemic, reminding Guterres of the official letters directed to him and to the Security Council in this regard, including the complaint dated 31/05/2020, as well as Syria’s statements at the Security Council on this matter, the most recent being made on August 19th, with al-Jaafari saying that Syria is hoping that the General Secretariat will react to these letters urgently.

For his part, Guterres said that he is aware of the situation in Hasaka and that he has tasked the UN team in Syria and his Special Envoy Geir Pedersen with taking the necessary steps to address this matter, resolve it urgently, and deliver humanitarian aid to affected people until Allouk station is operational again.

He said that he could imagine the situation in light of the intense heat and absence of potable water, adding that this situation must be resolved urgently, and that he will exert his best efforts by contacting the Turkish government and other sides to put pressure and resolve this matter as soon as possible.

Guterres also said he will task Pedersen with addressing this matter by meeting the representatives of the US, Russia, and Turkey in Geneva on Monday on the sideline of the meetings of the committee for discussing the constitution.

Baraa Ali / Hazem Sabbagh

Censorship: Dictator Erdogan Continues to Block Syria News in Turkey

August 7, 2020 Arabi Souri

Recept Tayyeb Erdogan - Turkey Sultan Wannabe

The Turkish madman and Sultan wannabe Recep Tayyeb Erdogan continues to block our site Syria News in Turkey, or better call it Erdoganstan, the site has been blocked since 2013.

A thread on Reddit reminded me of the blocking in Turkey, it’s been a while I didn’t check with our visitors from Turkey whether they can access the site normally in different regions of Turkey, do they need to use a VPN to access the site? I’d highly appreciate if we get the response in the comments.

This is the thread on Reddit of Turkish visitors who can’t access the site normally and need a VPN to override Erdogan’s censorship, yet still one of them, as I understood from the translator, he still couldn’t access the site:

Censorship: Erdogan continues to ban Syria News in Turkey

I used Google Translator to try to confirm that the discussion is about the censorship of Syria News in Turkey, and this is what it returned:

Turkish citizens don't have access to Syria News
  • Does the site syrianews.cc anti-AKP banned pro-Assad regime in Turkey?
  • I saw a news on Social Media, a link was given to this site. I said I’ll read, I clicked but “mafiş”. I used a VPN, it was turned on. Now I can’t say the problem is on my computer.
  • It doesn’t open for me

Obviously, the madman and loyal servant to the worldwide Political Zionism movement, Erdogan is working hard to fulfill his role as the “leading player in the Greater Israel Project” – in his own words, has managed in a short period of time to reverse most achievements Turkey has accomplished since its evolvement from the most hated Ottoman Sultanate to a modern country a century ago, now he’s doubling down on reviving that anti-Islamic criminal empire that fought fake religious wars in the name of Islam against everybody else.

Erdogan: ‘George W. Bush Assigned Me the Leading Regional Role in the Greater Israel Project.

Erdogan Intimidating Syrianews.cc to Silence Us

The Ottoman sultanate, and contrary to the propaganda its defenders try to spread, is a complete 180 degrees twist from Islamic teachings. This can easily be established by their ditching of the Arabic language, the language of the Holy Quran, as the state’s formal language and enforcing their Turkish language on the Muslims and others in the countries they invaded and destroyed.

The Ottomans infiltrated and then collapsed the last real Islamic Caliphate the Abbassid based in Baghdad, and continued to sideline the Damascus center of the former Omayyad Caliphate. They moved the center of their ‘Sultanate’ to Constantinople which they conquered and called it Astana then Istanbul, the furthest they could reach from centers of Islam in Mekkah, Medina, Quds (Jerusalem), Damascus, Fustat (Cairo), and Baghdad.

The Turks – Ottomans have great hatred towards Arab Muslims manifested in their constant invasions of other countries using Muslim youth from the Arab world to fight the useless bloodiest wars of the Sultan, not to spread Islam, but to make it a hated religion. Islam strictly prohibits invading and attacking other countries that did not pose any threat or invade Muslim countries. The only other context where Islam permits an attack against another country is when it prohibits its Muslim people from practicing their prayers, even in this case, if there’s a peace treaty with that country Islam prohibits attacking it. This explains how Islam easily and peacefully spread in regions as far as China and Indonesia without any war.

The Ottomans also worked hard to stop the advance of the Arab Muslim territories from science and education in all its fields and to prevent it completely, the succeeded in making more than 90% of the population of the regions they conquered illiterate. They stole the books to their capital, they oppressed, harshly the people of the regions under their control. That’s all very much un-Islamic and against a main teaching of Prophet Muhammad PBUH.

Their grandchildren now fighting freedom of speech, oppressing journalism, and attacking all their neighbors and beyond is not surprising, seems it runs in their genes.

We call on all governments of the world to block Erdogan’s propaganda sites in their countries until he allows freedom of speech back in his, after all, his propaganda sites are only used to recruit anti-Islamic terrorists in your countries.

All those who claim they are helping the Syrian people and shout their lungs out that they want us to gain freedoms we don’t have and democracy we lack, and to distribute our resources better, are the same ones who ban our voices, block our contributions, they jail their own citizens who do not align with their criminal policies, and steal our resources, burn our food, and prevent others from trading with us or even help us.

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Nobody is Talking about the Sanctions against Syria!

Erdogan Thugs Arrest 61 Teachers in Ankara

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Azerbaijan – Armenia Clashes: Why Tovuz? And Why Now?

Azerbaijan – Armenia Clashes: Why Tovuz? And Why Now?

By Mohammad Noureddine, Al-Akhbar

After Syria, Libya, and Iraq, a new front opens in a region with direct relationship with Turkey. On July 11, artillery clashes broke out between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which, according to Azerbaijan, resulted in the killing of 100 Armenians. Though, Armenia denied this and admitted the killing of four members of the army, Baku, for its part, admitted the killing of 11 Azerbaijanis, including two officers. This was the first clash between the two countries since the “Four Day War” in 2016.

In principle, relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan were seen as one people in two countries, and the national bond that unites them was stronger than sectarian disparity: Shiites in Azerbaijan and Sunni in Turkey. Turkey and Azerbaijan represent a strong base for American and Atlantic interests, in addition to the presence of a robust “Israeli” intelligence against Iran in Azerbaijan.

Although some Turkish opposition parties disagree with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on more than one foreign policy dossier, they meet with him in standing with Azerbaijan, on a national basis. Accordingly, the Parliament’s main parties issued a joint statement denouncing what they described as an Armenian attack on Azerbaijan. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu fully supported Azerbaijan, while Erdogan described Armenia’s actions as an attempt beyond its limits. In the light of this, Azerbaijan’s Deputy Minister of Defense and Commander of the Air Force, Ramiz Tahirov, met Turkish Minister of Defense Khulusi Akar in Ankara.

Nevertheless, many observers in Turkey portray different and foggy environment concerning the objectives of the recent escalation and the position of both, Ankara and Moscow:

  • Talks regarding the conflicts in power in Azerbaijan, that President Ilham Aliyev and his deputy and wife Mehriban Aliyeva, are seeking to get rid of the old guard, who stands in the way of improving relations with the Russian Federation. Hence, Foreign Minister Aldar Mamedyarov was sacked and replaced by Gihon Bayramov. Mehriban had visited Russia last fall in the framework of strengthening ties with Moscow, and President Vladimir Putin awarded her with the “Order of Friendship”. The recent clashes came as an opportunity to get rid of opposition to President Aliyev in the Azerbaijani interior.

In this context, “Khabar Turk” newspaper’s Chettener Chiten said Russia believes that facing the United States’ attempts to isolate the country from the region in Libya, the eastern Mediterranean and the Caucasus cannot happen by just establishing good relations with Armenia, but it is necessary to establish good relations with Baku as well. Hence, Russia’s sale of the S-300 missile system to Baku was to develop relations between both parties.

  • What caught the observers’ attention, including former Turkish ambassador in Baku Unal Cevikoz, is the site of the clash in the Azerbaijani Tovuz region. The site is located on the Armenia and Azerbaijan borders, directly and geographically far from the Karabakh region, and is therefore not related to the Karabakh conflict. Cevikoz saw this as a potential cause of tension between Turkey and Russia, where Turkey should take diplomatic steps and contain the situation before things get worse. Tovuz is also close to the Georgian border; among its strategic advantages is that the famous Baku – Tbilisi – Ceyhan oil and gas pipeline, the main railway and the highway connecting Baku and Tbilisi all run next to it.

Tovuz is not a disputed region between Azerbaijan and Armenia, unlike other regions in Karabakh and beyond. This means that the recent tension exceeds with its objectives the previous traditional factors. Retired military analyst, Onal Atabay, said concerning the Tovuz’s strategic location, that it was in Russia’s interest to widen the front line against Turkey, which is pressing Russia in Libya, Syria and the eastern Mediterranean. Drawing the pressure on Turkey by moving the Caucasus Front is appropriate, given that Turkey may not be able to afford to open several fronts at once, so the Caucasus front will be a bargaining chip in the hands of Russia towards Turkey and the US concerning the Libyan dossier.

There is no doubt that Russia is the strongest in the Caucasus conflict, given that the relations between Baku and Ankara are not stable, as the latter, according to writer Murat Yatkin, observes cautiously the Russian-Azerbaijani rapprochement. So Turkey is satisfied today with carrying out military flights on the border with Armenia, providing logistic and advisory assistance, and not responding in a way that might draw it into a war it is not ready for. Likewise, Turkey is not very comfortable with the Azerbaijani position and is hesitating, as a result, believing that Baku is playing a double game: it speaks with Ankara in Turkish and with Moscow in Russian, as Fahmy Tashkent notes in the daily “Gazette Dwar”.

  • What Russia might target in triggering the Tovuz front is pressure on Turkey and Azerbaijan over the Baku Ceyhan pass line near Tovuz and the possibility of disrupting it under the pretext of military operations. This would deal a severe blow to economic cooperation between Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia, and after them the United States; knowing that Russia, like Armenia, is very damaged by this line, which is an alternative to Russian oil and gas pipelines and marginalizes Armenia and deprives it of financial returns and outward orientation if the line runs through its territory. Faruk Logoglu, former Turkish ambassador to Baku [1996-1998], believes that Russia is not interested in stabilizing the Caucasus so that Armenia and Azerbaijan will need Russia and its mediations.
  • And given the good relationship between France and Armenia, the former is not far from exerting pressure on Turkey, which has been in turn challenging France, for months, in the eastern Mediterranean and Libya, as well as the West by turning the Hagia Sophia into a mosque.

So far, developments are not on the verge of escalation. And messages from one side or the other have been received. Now, light has been shed to the fate of other fronts, especially Libya, and whether Tovuz’s messages will be received.

مخلب الناتو وحلم السيطرة على القوقاز… أردوغان على حدّ سيوف النازيّة

محمد صادق الحسيني

مرة أخرى يجري أردوغان مسرعاً إلى حتفه من دون قراءة موازين القوى ومعطيات التاريخ والجغرافيا السياسية الجديدة التي بدأت ترسم ملامح العالم الجديد…!

إنّ سبر الدوافع الكامنة وراء تحرّك تركيا أردوغان السريع لـ «دعم» أذربيجان في الاشتباكات الحدودية الجارية بينها وبين جارتها أرمينيا، في منطقة ناغورني كاراباخ / أو كاراباخ الجبل /، يجب أن يسبقه إلقاء نظرة فاحصةٍ، على الوضع الحالي وكذلك التاريخي لهذه المنطقة الهامة من العالم. كما يجب النظر بدقةٍ الى ميزان القوى العسكري، بين الدولتين المنخرطتين في هذه الاشتباكات، أرمينيا وأذربيجان.

يشير ميزان القوى العسكري الى رجحان كبير في كفته لصالح أذربيجان، سواءٌ في القوات البرية او الجوية (أرمينيا لا تملك قوات بحرية لأنها غير مشاطئة لأي من بحار المنطقة). إذ إن عديد الجيش الأرمني يصل الى 26000 جندي فقط وحوالي ضعفهم من الاحتياط، بينما يبلغ عديد الجيش الأذري العامل 216000 جندي، يضاف اليهم 850000 (ثمانمئة وخمسزن ألفاً) من جنود الاحتياط. كما انّ ميزان القوة في سلاح الجو لدى البلدين هو انعكاس لميزان القوى في البر. ايّ انّ سلاح الجو الأذري يتفوّق على الأرميني بخمس مرات.

بالإضافة الى هذا الاختلال الكبير في ميزان القوى العسكري، فلا بدّ أن نأخذ بالاعتبار العديد من العوامل اللوجستية الهامة، التي تجعل أذربيجان أفضل تجهيزاً وعتاداً من أرمينيا. إذ إنّ أذربيجان تتلقى:

مساعدات عسكريّة مباشرة من «إسرائيل»، التي تزوّدها بمنظومات دفاع جويّ من طراز باراك ٨ وطائرات مسيّرة وتجهيزات حرب إلكترونية وعدد كبير من المستشارين العسكريين والأمنيين، الذين يتحكمون بمفاصل الجيش والأجهزة الأمنية الأذرية.
كما أنّ أذربيجان تتلقى مساعدات عسكرية كبيرة من تركيا، التي تشرف بالكامل على برامج تدريب القوات الخاصة الأذرية، بالتعاون مع مدربين من لواء غولاني «الإسرائيلي». يضاف الى ذلك ما تقدّمة تركيا من عتاد مختلف وعربات قتال مدرّعة وغير ذلك.
من هنا فإنّ الحملة الإعلامية، التي أطلقتها تركيا، حول تزويدها لأذربيجان بعدد من الطائرات المسيّرة من طراز بيرقدار / ت.ب.2 / ليست الا ذراً للرماد في العيون، وذلك لأنّ لدى أذربيجان ما يكفي من الطائرات المسيّرة الإسرائيلية ولأنّ هذه الطائرة التركية ليست هي العصا السحرية القادرة على قلب موازين القوى في الميدان، كما تدّعي صحافة أردوغان الصفراء.
إذاً ما هو الدافع الحقيقي وراء خطوات أردوغان العسكرية المتهورة في القفقاس؟

يجب أن لا ننسى، عند الإجابة على هذا السؤال، ان تركيا عضو أساسي في حلف شمال الاطلسي، وبالتالي فهي مخلب أميركي، يستخدم تارةً في سورية، وأخرى في ليبيا، وبعدها العراق، والآن حان وقت تفعيل هذا المخلب الهدام، في منطقة القفقاس، أيّ على حدود روسيا الجنوبية. خاصة أنّ لأردوغان أطماعاً واسعة في هذه المنطقة، تمتدّ الى حدود الصين الغربية.

وبالتالي فإنّ تحرك أردوغان هذا لا يمكن وضعه في خانة المغامرات العسكرية غير المحسوبة، وإنما يجب وضعه في إطاره الصحيح. هذا الإطار الذي يهدف الى تغيير الوضع الاستراتيجي في تلك المنطقة لصالح الولايات المتحدة وحلف شمال الأطلسي، وذلك من خلال:

أ) نشر التطرف الديني والفوضى العسكرية والأمنية الشاملة، ليس في أذربيجان فحسب، وانما في كل جمهوريات الاتحاد السوفياتي السابقة هناك، وذلك من خلال نقل آلاف المسلحين الإرهابيين، من بقايا فلول داعش والنصرة، المنتشرين في منطقة عنتاب، داخل تركيا، وفي مناطق شمال وشمال غرب سورية، خاصة أن تقارير الجهات الأمنية الأوروبية، المتخصصة بمتابعة الحركات الإرهابية في العالم، تؤكد وجود ما لا يقلّ عن ثمانين ألف مسلح في مناطق سيطرة الجيش التركي في سورية وفي مناطق الحدود السورية التركية.

ب) تعزيز سيطرة قوات حلف شمال الاطلسي، على الدول المحاذية لحدود روسيا الجنوبية الغربية، كأوكرانيا وجورجيا، واضافة اذربيجان اليها والتي يخطط الحلف لاستخدامها كمنصةٍ للوثوب شرقاً، باتجاه تركمانستان وطاجيكستان واوزباكستان وقرقيزستان، استكمالاً لتطويق روسيا من الجنوب وفصل إيران عن محيطها الإقليمي في وسط آسيا، وما يعنيه ذلك من محاولات لتعطيل تنفيذ مشاريع برنامج/ طريق واحد وحزام واحد الصيني العملاق، الذي يشمل هذه الدول ايضاً الى جانب إيران وغيرها من الدول العربية.

ولكن أردوغان، الذي يحلم بإعادة عجلة التاريخ الى الوراء ويهلوس بإمكانية نجاحه في السيطرة على الجغرافيا الواقعة بين بحر الادرياتيك، في البلقان، وبين الحدود الصينية، لا يمكن ان تصل أحلامه الى ابعد مما وصلت إليه احلام الامبراطورية البريطانية، عندما كانت امبراطورية، وحاولت ان تسيطر على افغانستان بحجة مواجهة التوسع الروسي في منطقة وسط آسيا. قامت بريطانيا آنذاك، سنة 1838 بتجريد حملة عسكرية، انطلقت بها من الهند، لاحتلال افغانستان، ودخلت في حرب مع المقاتلين الأفغان الموالين للملك محمد خان، الذي حاولت بريطانيا خلعه واستبداله بعميل لها. وقد استمرت تلك المغامرة البريطانية حتى شتاء 1842 عندما اصدرت القيادة العسكرية البريطانية أوامرها لقواتها المهزومة بالانسحاب سيراً على الأقدام، عبر ممر خيبر، حيث تمكن المقاتلون الأفغان من إبادتها بالكامل ولم يصل منهم أحد الى الهند، مكان انطلاق حملتهم.

وقد اعاد البريطانيون هذه التجربة الفاشلة، في اطار استراتيجية جديدةٍ لمواجهة نفوذ روسيا، أسموها استراتيجية التقدم الى الامام. فقاموا بتنظيم حملة عسكرية جديدة في افغانستان، سنة 1878، استمرت حوالي عام كامل مُنيت خلاله القوات البريطانية بهزائم نكراء واضطرت للانسحاب من افغانستان. ولكنها عاودت هذا الجنون مرة أخرى سنة 1919 انتهت بتوقيع اتفاق وقف إطلاق نار، أفغاني بريطاني، اعطيت افغانستان بموجبة حق الاستقلال الكامل وانسحبت القوات البريطانية بشكل كامل. تماماً كما يحصل حالياً بين الولايات المتحدة وقوات الناتو من جهة وحركة طالبان من جهة أخرى… عشرون عاماً من الحرب الفاشلة للوصول الى اتفاق على انسحاب آمن للقوات الأميركيّة.

إن روسيا الاتحادية الحاليّة ليست هي التي كانت في القرن التاسع عشر، حيث كانت دولة ضعيفةً نسبياً بالمقارنة مع الدول الاستعمارية الأوروبية آنذاك، ولا هي روسيا سنة 1919، التي كانت تشهد ثورة غيرت وجه التاريخ ونتج عنها نظام سياسي لم يعهده العالم سابقاً. آنذاك حاولت تلك الدول التدخل في شؤون روسيا الداخلية، متوهّمة انها دولة ضعيفة. فقامت تلك الدول بعمليات إنزال بحري في جنوب غرب روسيا على البحر الاسود، وفي اقصى الجنوب الشرقي في منطقة المحيط الهادئ (مدينة فلاديفوستوك) وفي القطب الشمالي (منطقة موراميسك). ولكن روسيا انتصرت على جميع هذه الحملات وأفشلتها.

ولعل من المفيد أيضاً تذكير «السلطان» أردوغان بأن زميله في الاحلام المكنونة، زعيم المانيا النازية، ادولف هتلر، قد حاول، سنة 1941/1942 الاستيلاء على منطقة القفقاس، ووصل بجيوشه الى مدينة ستالينغراد، التي لا تبعد سوى ألف كيلومتر عن مدينة باكو، عاصمة اذربيجان وقلب الصناعة النفطية الروسية / السوفياتية / آنذاك، والتي كانت تشكل هدفاً استراتيجياً له. ورغم انّ الحظ قد حالفه، في الوصول الى ستالينغراد، إلا أنه ارتكب بذلك خطأ تاريخياً، ادى الى ابادة الجيش الألماني السادس وجيش المدرعات، بقيادة الجنرال باولوس، وخسارة 600 الف جندي ألماني وهزيمة منكرة حسمت نتيجة الحرب العالمية الثانية.

فهل لك أن تقرأ التاريخ وتستخلص منه العبر، ايها السلطان الحالم!؟

ان الوضع الاستراتيجي لمنطقة وسط آسيا كاملةً قد حسم لصالح روسيا في صراع الدول العظمى الامبراطورية في شهر شباط سنة 1942، بتحرير الجيوش السوفياتية لمدينة ستالينغراد ومنع تقدم الجيوش الالمانية الغازية باتجاه جنوب القفقاس. أي باتجاه اذربيجان.

لقد قضي الأمر مذّْاك الزمن.

آسيا الوسطى لن تكون منطلقاً لتهديد وحدة الأراضي الروسية، ولا مسرحاً لنشر الحروب والاقتتال والفوضى فيها، وفرض حالة من انعدام الاستقرار الاستراتيجي في كل دولها.

لان ميزان القوى الدولي لا يسمح لك بذلك، وعليك ان تتذكر بان ابناء هذه الدول، كتفاً الى كتف مع اخوانهم المواطنين الروس، قد قدموا ما يزيد على 27 مليون شهيد للانتصار على النازية والحفاظ على بلدانهم.

كما لا بد من تذكير السيد أردوغان بأنّ التغيرات، التي شهدها العالم، منذ نهاية الحرب العالمية الثانية، أعمق بكثير مما يمكن لعقله أن يستوعب. ومن ضمن أهم تلك المتغيرات بروز الصين كدولةٍ مستقلةٍ معاديةً لأسياده في البيت الابيض، وتملك اقتصاداً سيبلغ حجمه ضعفي الاقتصاد الأميركي، خلال العقد الثالث من هذا القرن.

اذن، هناك استقرار استراتيجي في منطقة آسيا الوسطى، في عهدة روسيا الاتحادية وجمهورية الصين الشعبية، ولا يمكن لأحلامه البهلوانية ان تغيّر فيه شيئاً. تماماً كما أن طائراته المسيرة، من طراز بيرقدار، التي أرسلها لأذربيجان لاستفزاز روسيا ومناكفتها، ولا لطائرات حلفائه الموضوعيين في «إسرائيل»، وهي من طراز اطلس برو صناعة شركة اطلس داينامكس الإسرائيلية، والتي أرسلوها، قبل ايام معدودة، كما نشر موقع الجروساليم بوست الإسرائيلية بتاريخ 16/7/2020، الى أقصى شمال شرق النرويج، بحجة المشاركة في عمليات بحث وإنقاذ، بينما هي في الحقيقة تقوم بمهمات تجسس على أسطول الشمال الروسي، في ميناء مورمانسك في القطب الشمالي وعلى قطع هذا الأسطول المنتشرة في بحر بارينتس.

ما يعود بالفائدة على الشعب التركي وعلى الدولة التركية ويفتح أمامها ابواب التطور والازدهار اللامحدود بعيداً كل البعد عن سياساتك الحالية. إن الطريق الى ذلك يكمن في ان تستمع جيداً لكلمة السيد حسن نصر الله، التي دعا بلاده فيها للتوجه شرقاً… الى الصين والى روسيا وإيران، وتفهم عمق ما جاء فيها وعمق التغيرات التي يشهدها العالم، وعلى مختلف الصعد، كي تقود شعبك وبلادك الى نتيجة تختلف عن النتيجة، التي وصل اليها زعيم المانيا النازية، ادولف هتلر.

مواكبة العصر هي طريق النجاح وليست المغامرات العسكرية الفاشلة المعبّرة عن ضيق أفق خطير لا يليق برئيس دولة اقليمية على جانب كبير من الأهمية كالجمهورية التركية.

ومكر أولئك يبور.

بعدنا طيّبين قولوا الله…

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الأميركيون يتخلّون عن الإقليم للأتراك

الأميركيون يتخلّون عن الإقليم للأتراك

الثلاثاء ١٤ تموز ٢٠٢٠   

عباس ضاهر – 

خاص النشرة

عندما سجن الأتراك القس الإنجيلي الأميركي أندرو برونسون هبّت ​واشنطن​، ومارست ​عقوبات​ فورية على أنقره سبّبت لها خسائر إقتصادية كبيرة، إلى أن سارع الرئيس التركي ​رجب طيب اردوغان​ بإتخاذ قرار الإفراج عنه. وعندما أعلن الأتراك إعتماد كاتدرائية ​آيا صوفيا​ ​المسيحية​ مسجداً إسلامياً، إكتفى الأميركيون بإعلان أسفهم بشأن الخطوة الأردوغانية من دون إتخاذ أي إجراء بحق الدولة التركية، لا سياسياً ولا إقتصادياً. بينما كانت ​روسيا​ تعتبر ما جرى بحق آيا صوفيا بأنه شأن تركي داخلي.بالطبع، ليست المسألة تركيّة داخلية، ولا الكاتدرائية المسيحية العريقة هي شأن عابر لا يستحق أكثر من جملة إنشائية مبنية على أسف، بل إن طبيعة ردود الفعل الدولية تدل على نوعية التعاطي الدولي، غرباً وشرقاً، مع أنقره التي تتمدد بكل إتجاه إقليمي، وتفرض نفوذا لها يستعيد مجدها في أيام ​الدولة العثمانية​. فهل هناك قبول عالمي بالدور التركي في الإقليم؟.

يبدو أن واشنطن تكرر تجربتها في ​تركيا​ كما فعلت مع ال​إسرائيل​يين. كان الأميركيون في خمسينيات وبداية ستينيات القرن الماضي لا يتعاملون مع ​تل أبيب​ كقوة كما تعاملوا معها لاحقاً. لكن نتائج ​حرب 1967​ التي خاضها الإسرائيليون ضد العرب جعلت ​الولايات المتحدة الأميركية​ تضع إسرائيل في مرتبة الحليفة القوية التي يمكن الإعتماد عليها في ​الشرق الأوسط​. بعدها إزدادت عوامل الدعم والتبني الأميركي لتل أبيب، إلى حد بات فيه الإسرائيليون يعتبرون أنفسهم أنهم يعيشون اتحاداً عضوياً مع الأميركيين.

ما هو حاصل فعلياً أن الأميركيين لا يعولون الآن على أي دور عربي، وهم اغرقوا ​دول الخليج​ بحروب مفتوحة، كما الحال في ​اليمن​ و​ليبيا​. وحدها تركيا حاربت بأدوات عربية وإسلامية طيلة السنوات الماضية، وأقامت تحالفات متينة، وباتت القوة الإقليمية الأكثر قدرة، فتمددت من ​سوريا​ الى ليبيا، وفرضت مصالح في ​العراق​، وتسعى لفرض نفوذ في ​لبنان​، وأسست بنية صلبة في غزة، ونسجت علاقات مع ​باكستان​ و​أفغانستان​، وكل دول ستان، وتصرفت على أساس أنها وقطر في شراكة مستدامة، سلماً وحرباً، وتعاملت مع ​إيران​ كقوة وازنة تحنّ إلى تقاسم الأدوار الإقليمية مع الجبابرة الدوليين.

أمام هذا الواقع، سلّمت الولايات المتحدة الأميركية بأهمية وفاعلية الدور التركي الريادي، وهي تستعد لتُخلي له المنطقة بإنسحاب ​عسكري​ من سوريا والعراق، قد يحصل قبل موعد الإنتخابات الأميركية. فلماذا تثق الولايات المتّحدة بتركيا؟

تستند واشنطن على أن أنقره عضو في ​حلف شمال الأطلسي​، وتدير دولة ذات قدرات بشرية وعسكرية وصناعية هائلة، وهي عناصر تفتقدها ​الدول العربية​ مجتمعة. مما يعني أن تركيا تمنع تفرّد روسيا أو إيران في الإقليم، لا بل تستطيع أن تحدّ من نفوذ الإيرانيين في أي دولة إسلامية رغم التقارب التركي-الإيراني القائم في علاقات مميزة بين أنقره و​طهران​.

الأهم، أن تركيا تملأ فراغاً كان يمكن ان يملأه العرب في سوريا ولبنان وليبيا ومناطق أخرى. فلو أرسلت مصر في السنوات الماضية كتيبة عسكرية إلى سوريا للمشاركة الى جانب دمشق في الحرب ضد ​الإرهاب​، لكانت اكتسبت ​القاهرة​ شرعية عربية واسعة انطلاقا من سوريا. لكن المصريين تركوا الساحة السورية، بينما كانت دول الخليج تدعم المجموعات المسلحة التي صارت الآن في خدمة تركيا في شمال وشرق سوريا.

المسألة تتكرر في لبنان الآن، بعد إنسحاب دول الخليج من أي دور سياسي أو مالي في لبنان، مما رمى مجموعات سنّية في أحضان أنقره، وتحديداً في ​شمال لبنان​. الأمر يتكرر في بعض مناطق العراق ايضاً، فيما إستطاعت تركيا أن تسحب مقاتلين سوريين للقتال في ليبيا قُدّر عددهم ١٧ الف مسلّح يساندون “​الإخوان المسلمين​” في ليبيا في معركة ​حكومة​ ​طرابلس الغرب​ ضد جيش المشير حفتر.

على هذا الأساس، توحي المتغيرات الجيوسياسية أن تركيا تتمدد على حساب العرب لتزعّم المسلمين السنّة في مساحات واسعة. عندها سيكون الإقليم محكوماً بين ثلاثة عناصر: تركيا، إيران، وإسرائيل، في ظل نفوذ روسي واسع، وصيني وأميركي غير مباشر. بينما يتفرج العرب على خلافاتهم ويلتحقون بقوة إقليمية هنا، وقوى دولية هناك: مصر مشغولة ب​سد النهضة​ مع ​اثيوبيا​، و بحدودها مع ليبيا، وبمناطق في ​سيناء​ تحوي ناراً إرهابية تحت الرماد، وبحدودها مع غزة التي يحكمها “الإخوان المسلمون”-حلفاء تركيا.

السعودية​ و​الإمارات​ انهكتا بحرب اليمن من دون جدوى، بينما تزكزك تركيا بهما في كل ساحات الإقليم.

باقي دول العرب حصروا اهتماماتهم بساحاتهم في ظل أزمات أمنية ومالية واقتصادية ودينية وعرقية تهدد مجتمعاتهم بشكل دائم.

مِن محمّد الثّاني إِلى أردوغان: أُصوليّةٌ مُتجدّدةٌ

الثلاثاء ١٤ تموز ٢٠٢٠   

رزق الله الحلو 

خاص النشرة

مِن محمّد الثّاني إِلى أردوغان: أُصوليّةٌ مُتجدّدةٌ

لم يُظهر الرّئيس التّركيّ رجب طيّب أَردوغان، في ملفّ تحويل متحف “​آيا صوفيا​” التّرائيّ العالميّ إلى مسجدٍ، تبدأ الصّلوات فيه بتاريخ 23 تمّوز الجاري، “نموذجًا مثاليًّا للحاكم المُسلم”! في وقتٍ نجد أَنّ ما تنعم به ​تركيا​ اليوم، من تقدّمٍ نسبيٍّ وازدهارٍ، إِنّما الفضل فيه يعود إِلى مصطفى كمال أَتاتورك، أَي إِلى النّظام العلمانيّ فكرًا وفلسفةً وسياسةً.وأَردوغان المُنتمي إِلى “حزب العدالة والتّنمية”، يميل بوجدانه ويتطلَّع إِلى إِعادة الحُكم الدّينيّ سواءً عن طريق العودة إِلى نظام الأَجداد (الخلافة العُثمانيّة) أَو عن طريق إِحياء النّزعة الدّينيّة في المجتمع التّركيّ، لتكون بعد ذلك عاملاً مُساعدًا له في ترويض الشّعب وتشريع ديكتاتوريّته، ليُصبح أَكثر جُرأة ويحقِّق أَهدافه وأطماعه التّوسّعيّة شيئًا فشيئًا…

كما وأَنّ حسابات أَردوغان الدّاخليّة، ورهانه في هذا المجال على شعبٍ سيَسْكر بجُنوح رئيسه نحو الأُصوليّة ليس في محلّه، إِذ إِنّ الشّعب التّركيّ قد رضع وتشرّب مفاهيم الحريّة والعلمانيّة كما وأَنّ ثقافة ​الإنسان​ التّركيّ، وأُسلوب حياته وسيكولوجيّته وبُعده السّوسيولوجيّ… أَقرب إِلى الشّعوب الأُوروبيّة منه إِلى الشّعوب العربيّة…

حتّى أَنّ تاريخ العرب والمسلمين عابقٌ بقيم التّسامح والتّعايش مع غير المسلمين، كما وأَنّ ​المسيح​يّين حصلوا على وظائف عُليا في الدّولتين الأُمويّة والعبّاسيّة!. وأَكثر ما يُخشى، أَن يكون حنين أَردوغان إِلى حقبةٍ إِجراميّةٍ لا خير فيها للعرب ولا للمُسلمين، بل إِنّها كانت سببًا في عُزلة العرب، وتخلُّفهم على مدى قرونٍ من الزّمن… في ظلّ حقبةٍ كانت سببًا في تشويه الصّورة الحقيقيّة للإِسلام، من خلال رسم الدّين في صورةٍ دمويّةٍ وعُنصريّةٍ دينيّةٍ وعرقيّةٍ، لم توفّر العرب ولا المسيحيّين، إذ نفّذ العثمانيّون جرائم في حقّ العرب، لا لشيءٍ سوى أَنّهم عرب، كما وأَنّ ما ارتكبوه من إِبادة جماعيّةٍ في حقّ الأَرمن لا لشيءٍ سوى أَنّهم مسيحيُّون!.

والخُطوة الأَردوغانيّة المُتطرِّفة الأَخيرة الّتي تم فيها تحويل متحف آيا صوفيا إِلى مسجدٍ؛ أَثبتت بما لا يدع مجالاً للشّكّ أَنّ النّظام التُّركيّ بدأَ يقترب مِن أُسلوب الميليشيات التّكفيريّة، ويكاد يتلاشى الفرق بينه وبين الجماعات الإرهابيّة كـ “داعش” و”​القاعدة​”.

وهذهِ الخطوة تُهين كُلّ مَن يحترم حُريّة الأَديان ومشاعر أَتباع كُلّ دينٍ، وإذا ما سُمح ل​أردوغان​ بالمضيّ في خطته الممنهجة، فلن نُشاهد في تركيا أَيّ ​كنيسة​ٍ، إذ إنّه وَفقًا للـ “عُثمانيّة ​الجديدة​”، لا مكان لأَي دينٍ آخر في تركيا سوى الإِسلام. فما هو مُتحف “آيا صوفيا”، الّذي هو في الأَساس كنيسةً؟.


كنيسة آيا صوفيا


كنيسة “آيا صوفيا” التّاريخيّة الّتي ينوي أَردوغان تحويلها مُجدّدًا إِلى مسجدٍ مكثت تحت الاحتلال التّركيّ 677 عامًا، بعدما كانت بُنيت في العام 537 على يد إِمبراطور بيزنطيا جوستنيان الأَوّل، وقد اختير موقع بنائها على تلّةٍ في وسط العاصمة الإِمبراطوريّة المُطلّة على ​مضيق البوسفور​، آخر بقعة أَوروبيّة مقابل المشرق المسيحيّ آنذاك، المُمتد من مصر حتّى ​سوريا​ و​لبنان​ وجبال الأَناضول وكيبدوكيا وأَرمينيا. وبعد إِنجازها، اعتُبرت تحفةً ومُعجزةً معماريّةً في القرن الخامس لا مثيل لها لا شرقًا ولا غربًا سوى الإِهرامات المصريّة، وأَبهرت الجميع ببنائها الضّخم وصحن قبتها وقاعة هيكلها الشّاسع المُتّسع لآلاف المُصلّين وهندستها الفريدة… وقد استمرّت تلك الكنيسة في خدمة المؤمنين من المسيحيّين لأَكثر من أَلف عامٍ، شهد فيها جرن العماد على بركة آلاف الأَطفال وجدرانها سمعت طلبات الفُقراء والمرضى والمحتاجين.

وفي يومٍ أَسود من العام 1453، وصلت طلائع جُنود السُّلطان التُّركيّ محمّد الثّاني إِلى المدينة، وقد عقد النّيّة على احتلالها، بعد ما فشل أَجداده في تلك المهمّة لمئات الأَعوام، كما فشل قبله الخليفة الأُمويّ معاوية في القرن السّابع، حين بقيت الكنيسة عصيّةً على المُحتلّين.

ووعد السّلطان جنوده بأَن تكون المدينة –إِذا دخلوها– مُلكًا لهم لثلاثة أَيّام، وأَنّ نساءها بكُلّ أَعمارهم في الدّاخل هديّة لهم كجواري لتشجيعهم على القتال. وهكذا، حاصر الأَتراك المدينة المُنهكة لفترة 52 يومًا، إِلى أَن دخلوها في ٢٩ أَيّار بعد اختراق جُدرانها، وبدأت مذبحة كبرى وعمليّة اغتصابٍ هي الأَكبر في التّاريخ. وقُطعت رؤوس عشرات آلاف الرّجال البالغين أَمام نسائهم، لحظاتٍ بعد ما شهدوا اغتصاب بناتهم. واستمرّ سماع صراخ تلك الفتيات طوال اللّيل المليء ب​الحرائق​ ورائحة الموت والدّماء، حيث تناوب الجنود على انتزاع الفتيات الصّغيرات من أَيدي رفاقهم واغتصابهنّ مع أُمهاتهنّ.

وأَمّا الكنيسة الّتي اختبأ فيها وفي ساحاتها وأَقبيتها أَكثر من خمسة آلاف مُصلّ خوفًا، اقتحمها جنود السّلطان وكتيبته الخاصّة، وتوجّهوا فورًا إِلى المذبح، وأُخد البطريرك جانبًا مع كبار الأَساقفة والكهنة، وقُطعت رؤُوسهم في الدّاخل. وأَما الرّجال فسيقوا إِلى الخارج وقُتلوا واحدًا تلو الآخر أَمام عائلاتهم، وجُمع الأَطفال الذذكور وجرى تكبيل أَرجلهم بالسّلاسل تمهيدا لبيعهم كعبيد، لتبدأ لاحقًا حفلة اغتصابٍ جديدةٍ للنّساء والفتيات انتهت بتكبيلهنّ تمهيدًا لإِهدائهنّ إِلى القصور والبيع في الأَسواق البعيدة.

وقيل يومها إِنّ أَصوات العويل خرقت قناة البوسفور إِلى الجهة الأُخرى: أَطفالٌ فُصلوا عن والداتهم وسيقوا بعيدًا والحديد في أَعناقهم… كما وكُسّرت أَبواب الكنيسة البرونزيّة وأُخرجت ذخائر القدّيسين وأُحرقت خارجًا مع الأَيقونات النّادرة، ونُهب ذهب “الايكونستاس الكبير”. ولم تنتهِ المذبحة إِلاّ بوصول السُّلطان إِلى السّاحة حيث عاين المبنى الّذي راقبه مع أَبيه مِن بعيدٍ لسنواتٍ طامعًا فيه!. وقد أَعلن فورًا نيّته بتحويله إِلى مسجدٍ عاقدًا العزم على الصّلاة فيه بعد أَسابيع…


التّاريخ يُعيد نفسه


لقد أَزمع أَردوغان على الالتزام بكتاب محمّد الثّاني على حساب الكُتُب السّماويّة، وإِذا كان الثّاني غسل الدّماء عن الرُّخام الأَبيض لأَرضيّة الكنيسة وبدأ بطمس الفُسيفساء على جُدران الكنيسة، حيث أُخفيت ​العذراء​ من فوق المذبح وأَيقونة المسيح الذّهبيّة من أَعلى مدخل الكنيسة، وطُلست الجدران بالكلس لإِخفاء المعالم المسيحيّة… فإِنّ أَردوغان تعهّد بعد 567 عامًا، باستكمال طمس الحضارة الإِنسانيّة، مستهدفًا بذلك أوّل ما استهدف، وثيقة الأخوّة الإنسانيّة الّتي وقّعها في أَبوظبي السّنة الماضية، قداسة ​البابا فرنسيس​ وشيخ الأَزهر أَحمد الطيّب. وإِذا كان كِلْس محمّد الثّاني يذوب مع الوقت، لتظهر مُجدّدًا المعالم المسيحيّة على الفُسيفساء، فإِنّ لأَردوغان أُسلوبه الخاصّ في عصر التّكنولوجيا المُتطوِّرة، والسّياسات الدّوليّة الإِنزوائيّة–الإنعزاليّة لا بل التّحريضيّة التّكفيريّة، ليمحو الحضارة الإِنسانيّة على طريقته!. وللحديث صلة…

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