Hearing is Not Like Seeing: NATO’s Terrorists Burning Syrian Wheat Crops – Video

June 11, 2020 Arabi Souri

NATO terrorists burning Syrian wheat crops in Ras Al Ayn - Hasakah

A video clip shared by local farmers from Ras Al-Ayn showing an inferno burning their livelihood before their eyes, hundreds of acres of wheat on fire just as the crop is due to harvest.

We’ve been reporting about these fires in areas of operation of the NATO’s Turkish (Orwellian-named) ‘Spring of Peace’ military operation in northern, and especially in northeastern Syria regions as well as in areas where remnants and sleeper cells of NATO-sponsored terrorists of ISIS and its affiliates are active in the south of the country.

Truly, hearing is not like seeing, any person with the least sense of humanity, especially citizens of all NATO member countries as these crimes are committed in their names with their tax money making them accomplices in the crimes, should be appalled of these scenes and should condemn these war crimes and call for the culprits to face justice.

We also Can’t Breathe because of the US brutality around the world.

Syria has officially filed a complaint to the NATO-dominated United Nations Security Council against these crimes committed by terrorists operating directly under the protection and sponsorship of the Turkish Army TSK of NATO, with the help of their US allies. But we all know the hapless mechanism of the United Nations and how only resolutions in favor of NATO countries are implemented, and under its Article 7 of its Charter when needed, the article that enforces the resolutions with military power.

Burning of wheat crops started earlier by the US-sponsored Kurdish separatist SDF and Asayish militias in Qamishli, Hasakah, when the farmers refused to sell their crops to Turkey for cheap and be paid in Turkish Lira, they were insisted on selling it to the Syrian state for the fair price offered to them by their government and in the Syrian Lira, therefore, the Kurdish separatists looted their crops and burned down what they couldn’t loot.

Kurdish PYD Asayish SDF Torching Wheat Farms in Qamishli

Related:

Turkish Madman Erdogan Stealing Syrian Wheat, Kids Injured by Bomb

Fake pious Trump burns Syrian wheat fields on Christian Sabbath
Fake pious Trump burns Syrian wheat fields on Christian Sabbath

These war crimes are part of the Trump regime’s ‘Maximum Pressure’ official policy against countries that do not accept puppet rulers loyal to the US working against the interests of their own people, Syria has been on the Pentagon’s destabilizing and threats since 1956 and these destabilization efforts and threats only increased through the past decades reaching this month with the so-called Caesar Act, a US regime of sanctions approved by the ‘democratically elected representatives of the US citizens to Congress’ and by the ‘democratically elected president’ in addition to the already draconian sanctions imposed earlier to suffocate the last breath the Syrian ordinary people can take.

This ‘economic terrorism’ act comes at the same time the whole world is calling on the USA and its European minions to lift off the sanctions, instead, the EU renewed their illegal inhumane unilateral sanctions against Syria for one more year earlier this month and the US Special Envoy to Syria James Jeffery gloating about the hardship this act is causing the Syrian people bragged: ‘The hardship the Syrian are living and the collapse of their national currency is the result of our policies.:

The US Caesar Sanctions, Washington’s Last Stray Bullet against Syria

https://www.syrianews.cc/the-us-caesar-sanctions-washingtons-last-stray-bullet-against-syria/embed/#?secret=FZKDXx7kZT

The US-led War of Terror and Attrition War it is waging against the Syrian ordinary people under the guise of ‘helping them out of oppression’, these lies should stop but we are very much aware and especially after we saw how the policy of sucking the life out of people and not allowing them to breathe is deeply rooted in the US culture, we are not betting much on their humanity rather on their fear of Karma, you will reap what you sow sooner or later and on Judgment Day there won’t be elections to manipulate or hide behind or any navy carriers protecting you, you’ll be called individually to stand naked before your creator and in front of all humans to answer for your crimes against others, including your silence to the crimes committed in your name by your politicians and military and with your money.

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Related

Russia: Deterioration of Idlib Situation Due to Turkey’s Failure to Implement Agreements

February 12, 2020

Russia on Wednesday blamed Turkey for the recent deterioration of the situation in Syria’s Idlib de-escalation zone.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Moscow believes that the reason for the recent deterioration of the situation in Syria’s Idlib de-escalation zone is Turkey’s failure to comply with previous agreements.

“We see the reasons for the current deterioration in Turkey’s chronic failure to fulfil its commitments under the Sochi memorandum of September 17, 2018, and the transfer by Ankara of Turkey-controlled units of the so-called moderate armed opposition to northeastern Syria into the zone of Operation Peace Spring and to Libya,” Zakharova said at a weekly briefing in Moscow.

She stressed that Russia remains committed to the agreements reached earlier and is determined to continue working together with Turkey on Syrian conflict settlement.

Earlier in the day, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused Moscow and Damascus of attacking civilians in Idlib. The remarks of the Turkish president came amid the escalation of tensions in Idlib.

Source: Sputnik

هل تعوض تركيا في ليبيا ما فاتها في سورية؟

ديسمبر 31, 2019

العميد د. أمين محمد حطيط _

لعبت تركيا منذ انطلاق الحرب الكونية ضد سورية، دور رأس الحربة في العدوان طامحة إلى اتخاذ سورية بوابة تدخل منها إلى كامل المنطقة العربية لإعادة إنتاج الدولة العثمانية البائدة وإعادة الروح إلى موقع خليفة المسلمين الذي طمح أردوغان بأن يلبس عباءته ويعتمّ بعمامته، متكئاً على تنظيم الإخوان المسلمين المعروف النشأة والسلوك والارتباط منذ أن ابتدع قبل قرن من الزمن.

ظن أردوغان ان حلمه الذي حشدت له قوى ناهزت الـ 260 ألف إرهابي، تقاطروا من 80 دولة، ممكن التحقق بأهون السبل وبأقصر المهل حتى ان غروره دفعه لتحديد مهلة 3 أشهر للتنفيذ، رآها كافية لأن تفتح له أبواب المسجد الأموي في دمشق ليؤمّ الصلاة فيه باعتباره “أمير المؤمنين” العائد إلى حكم المنطقة كما كان قبل الحرب العالمية الأولى. وبنى أردوغان كل حساباته وعقد الصداقات والتحالفات واتخذ مواقع العداء من الأطراف على أساس أن هذا الحلم محقق لا محالة وفقاً لهذا التخطيط.

لقد تصرّف أردوغان في الميدان مصدقاً نفسه بأنه بات فعلاً ولي أمر الشعب السوري وبأنه صاحب الولاية العامة على سورية وكل شؤونها، وسمح لنفسه بأن يوجه الأوامر للحكومة السورية ويضع الخطط لتنظيم حياة السوريين الذين حملهم على ترك بيوتهم واللجوء إلى مخيمات أعدّها مسبقاً في تركيا ثم شرع بالتعامل مع السوريين الذين وقعوا في فخه او قبضته او وصلت يده إليهم باعتبارهم رعايا للدولة العثمانية المستعادة واعتمد حيالهم سياسة التتريك والسلخ عن أصولهم وجذورهم سعياً لتكريس مفهوم رعايا السلطان الجديد بصددهم.

بالمقابل صمدت سورية وواجهت بصلابة العدوان الكوني الذي تنفذه تركيا وآخرون بدعم إقليمي ودولي، فشكل الرد الدفاعي السوري سداً منيعاً بوجه الأحلام التركية، حيث وجهت سورية وحلفاؤها الركلة ثم الصفعة، تعقبها ركله فصفعة لقوى العدوان. فأسقطت الحلم التركي على أبواب حلب التي سرق اردوغان معاملها وعلى أبواب دمشق التي زنّرها أردوغان بحزام إرهابي إجرامي خانق، ما ألزم أردوغان بالانكفاء إلى الحدود والتحصن في إدلب ومنطقتها إلى عفرين التي احتلها ثم راح يطرح المشاريع للشمال السوري من منطقة منزوعة السلاح إلى منطقة حظر جوي إلى منطقة آمنة إلى منطقة سلام إلى غيرها من التسميات التي جعلها عنواناً لمشاريعه العدوانية.

هنا وفي لحظة تعثر تركيا في سورية وانفضاض العدد الأكبر من تجمع أعداء سورية الدوليين، مدّت روسيا وإيران اليد إلى تركيا رغبة منهما بأن تراجع مواقفها وتوقف عدوانها على سورية ما يخفف من حجم متطلبات كسر العدوان على سورية وتقصير الوقت اللازم لاجتثاث الإرهاب منها وخفض الثمن اللازم لذلك. وهنا ننوه بان اليد الروسية – الإيرانية لم تمد إلى تركيا جهلاً بحقيقة الأهداف والسلوكيات التركية، بل كانت أملاً أن تراجع تركيا مواقفها بعد النتائج السلبية التي حصدتها وبالتالي فرصة لإخراج تركيا من مأزق مؤكد أدخلت نفسها فيه، في مقابل تحقيق مصلحة سورية مؤكدة تتمثل بالمحافظة على أمنها واستقلالها ووحدة أراضيها وسيادتها عليها. بهذه الخلفية تكوّنت منظومة أستانة الثلاثية لرعاية حل المسألة السورية.

لقد كانت أستانة ثم سوتشي، فرصة لتركيا لتخرج من مأزقها السوري، لا بل كانت فرصة لحجب الوجه العدواني الإجرامي البشع لأردوغان عبر تقديم تركيا عضواً في منظومة الأمن والسلام في المنطقة إلى جانب روسيا وأيران. لكن المطامع التركية والأحلام الخبيثة لدى أردوغان دفعته إلى اعتماد السياسة الزئبقية المتقلبة والمتنقلة بين صفتين صفة الراعي للسلام والأمن في المنطقة من خلال عضويته في مثلث استانة وصفة المعتدي صاحب المشروع التركي الخاص في سورية وهي الصفة الغالبة التي تتقدم أي اعتبار آخر. وامتهنت تركيا سياسة الكذب والانقلاب على التعهدات والنكول بالاتفاقات التي كانت تلتزم بموجبها بشيء ما ضد الإرهاب لدفع عجلة استعادة الأمن إلى سورية. وكان المشروع التركي الخاص هو المتقدم دائماً لا بل ان الخبث التركي دفع أردوغان إلى حد تسخير اتفاقات استانة وسوتشي في سبيل كسب الوقت والحؤول دون الجيش العربي السوري وتحرير إدلب. لعبة لعبها أردوغان منذ أيلول 2018 حيث كسب خلالها أكثر من 15 شهراً تأخيراً لانطلاق معركة تحرير إدلب من 65 الف إرهابي من السوريين والأجانب.

لقد استفاد أردوغان من هذا التأخير وأطلق عدوانه في شمال سورية تحت تسمية “نبع السلام” لإقامة المنطقة الآمنة، حسب زعمه وليتمكن من إنشاء حزام تركي بعمق 35 كلم وعرض 460 كلم داخل الأرض السورية، ليحدث فيه تغييراً ديمغرافياً ويفرض عليه تتريكاً يمكنه من اقتطاعه وإلحاقه بتركيا، ممنياً النفس أيضا بان يمنع سورية من تحرير منطقة إدلب ليضمها لاحقاً بالصيغ نفسها ما يمكنه من وضع اليد على مساحة إجمالية تزيد عن 25 ألف كلم2 أي مقدار 1/7 من الأراضي السورية.

لكن سورية ودفاعاً عن أراضيها وحماية لشعبها عملت على خطين في مواجهة الخطة التركية، فاندفعت قواتها إلى شرقي الفرات، حيث خططت تركيا لإنشاء المنطقة الآمنة تزامناً مع إعلان أميركا سحب جنودها من المنطقة، واستطاع الجيش السوري أن يجهض الخطة التركية بوصوله إلى الحدود مع تركيا في أكثر من نقطة ولم يتمكن الأتراك من احتلال أكثر من 4500 كلم2 من أصل 14000 خططوا لاحتلالها ثم، كانت المواجهات الميدانية التي تمكن من القول بأن عملية “نبع السلام” العدوانية التركية لم تنجح ولن تحقق أهدافها.

أما على الاتجاه الغربي فقد اطلقت سورية عملية تحرير إدلب مدعومة من روسيا وايران متجاوزة كل الكذب التركي والخداع الأردوغاني، انطلقت سورية للتحرير بالقوة بعد ان كانت وجهت رسائل ميدانية متتالية منذ مطلع العام 2018 ثم صيف 2018 حيث انتهت إلى تحرير خان شيخون. ثم كانت الرسالة السياسية العسكرية الأهم بزيارة الرئيس بشار الأسد إلى المنطقة ووقوفه على مشارف إدلب متعهداً بالتحرير التام والقريب، رسائل توخت سورية منها إفهام تركيا ان حبل الكذب قصير وان إدلب ستحرر بالقوة ان لم تنفذ تركيا تعهدها بإخراج الإرهابيين منها على مراحل نظمها اتفاق سوتشي بعد قرارات استانة.. وبهذا أحرج أردوغان على الاتجاهين الشرقي والغربي وكان وضعه في الغربي أصعب، نظراً لوجود 65 الف إرهابي سيكون مضطرا لتلقي نصفهم على الأقل في حال أنجزت سورية تحرير المنطقة وسيحار في وجهة استعمالهم ومصيرهم.

هنا وكعادته لجأ أردوغان إلى فتح باب عدوان جديد ضد دولة عربية أخرى، فكان اختياره لليبيا التي يؤمل ان يستغل حكومة السراج الإخوانية التي تقوم في طرابلس الغرب وأن يعدها بالدعم العسكري مقابل عقود إذعان توقعها معه في موضوع الحماية والثروة النفطية والغازية والمنطقة الاقتصادية الخاصة بها.

لقد اتجه أردوغان إلى ليبيا بعد سقوط حلمه في سورية، وبدأ بنقل الإرهابيين اليها من سورية في مهمة بالغة الخطورة والتعقيد حيث ستكون ليبيا اذا نجح مشروع أردوغان الجديد، ستكون محل تجميع الإرهابيين بقيادة تركية وسيشكل هؤلاء قوة ضاربة تتقدم الجيش التركي عندها يستطيع أردوغان ان يضغط بهم على كل من مصر والجزائر ويضمن الإمساك بقرار تونس والمغرب حيث الحكومات الإخوانية، وابتعد أردوغان كثيراً في حلمه هذه المرة واعتقد انه من ليبيا وبإرهابيين ينقلهم من سورية سيحكم الدول العربية في أفريقيا حيث يبدو انه أعاد النظر في لائحة الأولويات لديه، فبدل أن ينطلق من سورية للسيطرة على بلاد العرب في آسيا وأفريقيا يبدو انه قرر التمركز في ليبيا والتوجه منها شرقاً إلى مصر وغرباً إلى المغرب العربي فيضمن السيطرة ويتحكم بالغاز وأنابيبه معاً.

إنها أضغاث أحلام أردوغان التي لا نرى لها في ارض الواقع قابلية للتحقق في ظل وجود تكتل دولي منسق او ظرفي يواجهها خاصة بوجود الجهوزية المصرية والرفض الأوروبي والممانعة الروسية فضلاً عما ينتظره في الدول العربية ذاتها. لكن رغم الفشل المنتظر يبقى من شأن هذا الخطة التركية الإجرامية إثارة الفوضى وتسعير الصراع في المنطقة خدمة للمشروع الصهيوأميركي وخاصة ان مثل هذا الصراع سيمكن إسرائيل من التغلغل أكثر والدخول طرفاً او مكوناً في هذا الحلف او ذاك لتثبيت نفسها في المنطقة كقوة إقليمية قائدة فيكون أردوغان الفاشل في مشاريعه ناجحاً كالعادة في خدمة إسرائيل حليفته الاستراتيجية.

  • أستاذ جامعي وباحث استراتيجي.

The One Insurmountable Obstacle to Peace in Syria

MIKE WHITNEY • DECEMBER 4, 2019

The Turkish army did not invade Syria to attack the Kurds. That’s simply not true. The actual target of the Turkish operation (Peace Spring) was a group of separatist militants (The YPG) who have waged a bloody 30 year-long terrorist war on the Turkish state killing upwards of 40,000 people. With the assistance of US Special Forces, the YPG has seized most of the territory east of the Euphrates River including the area along Turkey’s southern border. Turkey could not allow a hostile militia to occupy towns and cities along its border any more than the United States could allow members of al Qaida to occupy bases along the Mexican border. It’s a matter of national security. The YPG was given the choice to either voluntarily withdraw or be removed by force. The United States would not have acted any differently.

The media would like people to believe that the Turkish incursion was driven by a pathological hatred of ethnic Kurds, but this isn’t true either. Keep in mind that 18 percent of Turkey’s population, roughly 14 million people, is Kurdish. If Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wanted to launch a war on Kurds, he didn’t have to go through the trouble of crossing the border to do so. He could have attacked them in his own country and been done with it. But that is not what Erdogan is doing. The Turkish operation is focused on one particular group, the People’s Protection Units or YPG, who rebranded themselves as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to conceal the fact that they are the Syrian affiliate of the notorious PKK, the Marxist-Leninist group that is on the US State Department’s list of terrorist organizations. Washington formed an alliance with this sketchy group to achieve its strategic objectives in Syria while avoiding US casualties. The obvious downside of the arrangement is that, in exchange for their assistance, the US has helped to create an autonomous Kurdish statelet at the center of the Arab world that is vehemently opposed by every other country in the region. As you can see, the strategy was poorly-thought out from the beginning which is why it nearly exploded into a full-blown crisis.

Fortunately, President Trump was smart enough to respect Turkey’s legitimate security concerns and withdraw US troops from the conflict zone 20 miles deep into Syria. In doing so, Trump avoided a tragic and unnecessary conflagration with its 67-year NATO ally, Turkey. Not surprisingly, the US Congress, the foreign policy establishment and virtually the entire media lined up against Trump’s withdrawal proposal preferring instead to engage in a potentially catastrophic confrontation with Turkey rather than make reasonable and entirely painless concessions to a vital strategic partner in the region. Is it any wonder why US foreign policy is such a hopeless shambles?

In any event, the media has convinced the American people that Trump should not withdraw the troops. Instead, the US should remain in Syria in order to plunder Syria’s oil, defend its terrorist friends, and make a general nuisance out of itself for the foreseeable future. This is madness. The position of the United States is not only morally abhorrent it is also strategically absurd. Turkey is not only an ally, it is also a critical landbridge between Europe and Asia, an indispensable part of Washington’s “pivot” strategy. Turkey has emerged as the southern corridor’s primary ‘energy hub’, the vital crossroads for Middle East and Asian gas pipelines headed for the European market. Imagine if Turkey chose to abandon the dollar in future energy transactions delivering a blow to the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency. Such a move would unavoidably put pressure on the sale of US Treasuries which rely on the recycling of dollars into US debt markets. Is Washington willing to forgo its “exorbitant privilege” to defend its fledgling proxy army in Syria? The idea is ridiculous.

Even so, there is no denying that the American people have been effectively bamboozled by the media’s relentless disinformation campaign. According to a University of Michigan critical issues poll, a mere 21 percent of Americans support Trump’s plan to withdraw troops from northern Syria. In contrast, more than twice as many respondents (46%) oppose withdrawing US troops. (33% either ‘don’t know’ or are ‘indifferent’) What are we to make of these results given the fact that a clear majority of Americans are sick and tired of the country’s endless wars and foreign interventions?

It’s not hard to explain. Propaganda works, that’s all one needs to know. The media was given the task of garnering support for an unpopular and counterproductive military occupation, and they succeeded. The majority of people now believe that withdrawing US troops is “betraying the Kurds” which is a tacit admission of cowardice and disloyalty. Therefore, we must keep troops in Syria. End of story.

But what if we can show that Turkey is not attacking the Kurds, and that the US should not be supporting groups that are on its own list of terrorist organizations, and that, most importantly, the US deployment in Syria, however small, is still the main obstacle to peace in the country? Would that change any minds?

We have already mentioned that there are roughly 14 million Kurds living in Turkey all of who enjoy the same rights and benefits as other Turkish citizens. And while its true that the Kurds have suffered persecution in the past, it is also true that ” there are more than 100 Kurdish politicians serving in the Turkish Parliament, more than 10,000 Kurdish soldiers serving in the Turkish Army, more than 4 million marriages between Turks and Kurds, and the Director of Turkey’s National Intelligence Agency is Kurdish.”

Erdogan’s AK Party also passed reforms that provide Kurds with “the right to education in Kurdish in private schools, the right to choose Kurdish as a selective course in public schools, the right to use Kurdish names in official documents, the right to have election campaign materials in Kurdish, (and) the establishment of a public television channel …which broadcasts only in Kurdish 24/7,.” (The Daily Sabah)

Does this sound like a government that hates the Kurds enough to wage war on them?

Of course not. And then there’s the checkered history of the YPG which has its own bloody baggage to deal with. Take a look at this excerpt from an article in The Nation that sheds a bit of light on the activities of this shadowy group:

“The Kurdish militia that supplies the ground troops in the US air war against the Islamic State has been a systematic violator of human rights in the area it controls in northern Syria, causing the displacement of tens of thousands of Arabs and even more massive flight by Kurds from the region….

As the collaboration with the United States increased in 2015, the YPG stepped up its expulsion of Arabs from the northern border area. This peaked in mid-2015 with the displacement or denial of return of at least 60,000 Arabs after the YPG captured Tal Abyad on the Turkish border, according to Sa’ad Shwish, exiled head of the local governing council in Raqqa.

The pace of the expulsions picked up dramatically after the United States began joint operations against the Islamic State in Syria in mid-2015, as the Kurdish militia threatened Arabs with air strikes if they didn’t leave their villages. While they slowed in 2016, expulsions continue even as the militia turns on its political rivals and jails, tortures, or expels them….

At least 200,000 Syrian Kurds have fled to Turkey rather than submit to forced conscription and political repression….At least 300,000 Syrian Kurds have also fled the region to neighboring Iraqi Kurdistan, according to officials there, and no fewer than 200,000 have fled to Turkey rather than submit to forced conscription and political suppression by a group that insists on ruling as a one-party state, according to Kurdish human-rights monitors in Turkey. …

One high-level official in the Obama administration called the region under YPG control a “mini-totalitarian state.” (“Have the Syrian Kurds Committed War Crimes?”, Roy Gutman, The Nation)

Should the United States be joined-at-the-hip with an organization that is involved in mass killing, human rights violations and ethnic cleansing? And would we be “betraying the Kurds” if we severed relations with the YPG, withdrew our troops from Syria, and let the Turks and Syrians sort this mess out for themselves??

On a personal level, I am sympathetic to the idea of a Kurdish state. The Kurds, after all, are the largest ethnic minority in the world without their own state. What I am not sympathetic to is the US using militant proxies who the State Department has identified as terrorists to carve up and occupy another country in the Middle East. That is a policy that wreaks of hypocrisy.

None of this is meant to infer that Turkey’s role in Syria has been helpful or productive. Quite the contrary, Turkey has supported many of the disparate jihadist militias that have prolonged the war, sent millions of civilians fleeing for cover, and reduced vast swathes of the country to rubble. Without question, Turkey shares a very large part of the blame for Syria’s current (desperate) predicament. At present, Turkey occupies a large part of Northern Syria both east and west of the Euphrates. The government has recently begun an ambitious resettlement program which has already returned more than half a million Syrian refugees to locations in Syria that are now under Turkish rule. And although Erdogan signed a memorandum with Putin that promises to respect the territorial integrity of Syria’s prewar borders, it’s clear that Turkey will not abide by that agreement. Instead, Erdogan will continue to resettle areas in Syria that he now controls, he will install local leaders that are loyal to Ankara, and he will eventually redraw Turkey’s borders so they include large tracts of what used to be northern Syria. But while Turkey’s army will not give up the ground they have already captured,
Erdogan has shown that he will make concessions if the price for achieving his ambitions is too high. The same cannot be said for Washington’s foreign policy establishment that wants to continue the occupation whatever the cost. Accordingly, the US has adopted an operational strategy of “forward deterrence” which means the focus has shifted from removing Assad, which is no longer possible, to preventing Russia and Iran from restoring Syria’s sovereign borders and security. Washington’s current role in Syria is that of “a spoiler.”

And this is what needs to change because the war in Syria cannot end until the American troops leave. When the US finally withdraws, the Syrian army, with the help of the Russian airforce, will swiftly retake east Syria stopping the Turkish advance in its tracks. The Kurds will then be forced to make a deal with Damascus that includes a mutually acceptable agreement for home rule within the confines of the Syrian state. The Russians may challenge Turkey’s land-grab in northern Syria, but Putin will not start another war to enforce his demands. That means Syria’s borders will be redrawn, even while the prospects for peace steadily improve. The Assad government will reassert control over most of its territory, 10 million refugees will return to their homes, and the reconstruction of the battered country will finally begin.

The one insurmountable obstacle to peace in Syria is the US occupation. Trump can create the conditions for ending the war, but only if he is courageous enough to confront his adversaries in the media, the Congress and the foreign policy establishment. That’s the only way forward.

Note–Here is a link to the censored 5 minute video that Erdogan showed to Trump on his IPAD in his recent visit to the White House. The video was blasted as “propaganda” by the media because it provides a chilling summary of the bloody terrorist attacks conducted by the YPG. The video also conflicts with the media’s narrative that Turkey has launched a war on the Kurds, which isn’t true.

Syrian Military Bombs Oil Smuggling Infrastructure In Turkish-Occupied Areas, War Report

South Front

On November 26, Kurdish rebels from the so-called Afrin Liberation Forces announced that their forces had eliminated 5 Turkish-backed militants and injured 6 others in an attack near Tuweys in northern Aleppo. The killed and injured militants were reportedly belonging to the al-Waqqas Brigade, which is involved in Turkey’s Operation Peace Spring as a part of the Syrian National Army.

On November 27, Kurdish rebels launched at least 6 rockets at the Turkish-occupied town of Azaz. The shelling reportedly hit a prison run by Turkish proxies injuring at least 3 people.

On November 27 and 28, clashes between the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces and Turkish-led forces were ongoing near the village of Abduki in northern Raqqa. According to pro-Kurdish sources, the Syrian National Army advanced on their positions backed up by the Turkish Army. However, the attack was repelled.

Additionally, 2 Turkish soldiers were killed in a mortar attack that targeted their position in the vicinity of the town of Akcakale on the Syrian border, according to the Turkish Defense Ministry.

19 people were killed and 45 others were injured in a car bomb explosion in the Turkish-occupied town of Tell Halaf on November 26. The explosion took place at the town’s main market, which was crowded by civilians and Turkish-backed militants. Turkish sources immediately accused Kurdish armed groups of being behind the attack.

On November 26, unidentified warplanes carried out a series of airstrikes on oil tankers and facilities belonging to Turkish-backed militant groups north and northeast of Al-Bab, and near Jarabulus. On November 27, the Syrian army took responsibility for the attack and announced that it will take measures to put an end to oil smuggling from the eastern bank of the Euphrates to Turkey. Oil looted by US forces at the Syrian oil fields are being smuggled with help of the SDF/YPG leadership to Turkey through northern Aleppo and Iraq’s Kurdistan Region. It is unlikely that Damascus even with help from Iran and Russia will be able to kill this business in the near future. Nonetheless, efforts in this field could create some obstacles for the sides involved.

Related News

SYRIAN DEMOCRATIC FORCES’ SHORT-TERM THINKING PROBLEM

Soutb Front

The political and military leadership of the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) has appeared to be in a shaky situation since the withdrawal of US troops from Syria’s north and the start of Turkey’s Operation Peace Spring. Since the start of the US invasion of Syria, Kurdish armed groups, primarily the People’s Protection Units (YPG), relied on foreign power to fend off the ISIS offensive and expand their control across northern and eastern Syria. The US military, political and financial support made Kurdish leaders believe that Kurdish armed groups were a kind of “integral” part of Washington’s strategy and that they had a voice to decide their future under a US protectorate. This illusion predetermined the YPG-SDF stance towards cooperation with the Damascus government and its allies.

In January-March 2018, YPG forces in Afrin were defeated by the Turkish Army and pro-Turkish armed groups and were forced to flee towards Syrian Army positions near Aleppo city. Prior to Turkey’s Operation Olive Branch, YPG leaders once again rejected Syrian-Russian proposals to settle their status and re-integrate into the Syrian state. Instead, they repeatedly asked the US and the so-called ‘international community’ for help – help which was not forthcoming.

The very same approach led to the start of Turkey’s Operation Peace Spring in northeastern Syria in 2019. On January 19, the so-called Autonomous Administration of Eastern Syria, a political body created by the SDF/YPG to manage the seized areas, issued a de-facto ultimatum to the Damascus government. Besides formal claims about the need to keep the unity of Syrian land and ensure rights to minorities, the 10-point long list included such demands as:

  • to accept the Autonomous Administration as a legal part of the Syrian political system;
  • to guarantee the Autonomous Administration representation in the Syrian Parliament;
  • to use the Autonomous Administration flag alongside the Syrian flag;
  • to allow the Autonomous Administration to conduct its own independent foreign policy;
  • to allow SDF units to keep control of the Syrian border;
  • to keep the SDF security force Asayish as the main security force within northeastern Syria;
  • to distribute “Syrian wealth to the Syrian regions in a fair manner.”

Summing up these claims, the SDF demanded Damascus should legally recognize a de-facto independent US-backed pseudo-state and its military force within Syria and fund this state from the Syrian state budget. This behavior undermined Damascus attempts to launch a real political dialogue to settle differences and the SDF became even more dependent on the US amid open preparations of Turkey for a military action in northeastern Syria. So, when US troops withdrew and the Turkish Army crossed the border, there was nobody to protect the Kurds. President Donald Trump turned up the heat even more by advising the Kurds, if they want US protection, to resettle into oil areas, control of which its administration sees as one of its main priorities.

Therefore, the SDF leaders rushed to reach a protection agreement with Damascus and Russia. Syrian Army troops and Russian Military Police were deployed along the border and the M4 highway limiting the Turks to the area that they had already captured. Moscow negotiated with Ankara a safe zone agreement. The Turkish Army limited its actions to the aforementioned chunk of the border. Rescued SDF units started withdrawal from a 30km zone away from the Turkish border.

Despite this, the SDF and its political representatives continue insisting that the agreement with Damascus is solely a security agreement and political terms and conditions are yet to be negotiated. The group also expressed hopes that it will be able to ‘restore’ dialogue with the US to the level that they had before the troop withdrawal. The SDF even criticized statements by the Syrian Defense and Interior Ministries suggesting SDF members should settle their legal status within the Syrian state and join the army if they want. The SDF claimed that it will not accept any deal that would not “recognize and preserve” the group’s “privacy and structure.” These actions demonstrate that at least a part of the Kurdish leadership has learned little from the Afrin and northeastern Syria cases and still believes that it is in a position to use the language of ultimatums. The involvement of Kurdish leaders in the US-run oil smuggling operations also play a role. It is likely that they do not want to lose revenues from their illegal cooperation with the foreign power that is looting Syrian natural resources.

These factors add additional instability to the situation in northeastern Syria and complicate its further de-escalation. Developments south of Ras al-Ayn where clashes between Kurdish and Turkish-backed fighters have recently erupted, are a result of the lack of coordination in the implementation of the safe zone agreement additionally to the aggressive behavior of both sides.

Nonetheless, the SDF will have to find a kind of political understanding with Damascus because the main and most likely alternative is the resumption of the Turkish offensive.

The Kurdish armed groups known as the SDF have recent experience of betraying the Syrian nation. In the most precarious situation, they abandoned Syria and made a pact with the US, the foreign power that seeks to undermine the country’s territorial integrity and, at that stage of the conflict,  was supporting the actions of al-Qaeda in Syria. There were – as there ought to be – consequences and the SDF suffered them. Washington abandoned its proxies, when it was deemed of higher value to the US to enable Turkey to carry out its offensive, than it was to protect them.

The US is not leaving Syria and the SDF is once again demonstrating that it may be prepared to sell its loyalty for American coin if a proposal were to come their way. However, if such a proposal is made and the SDF sabotages the reconciliation with Damascus, what guarantee is there that the US won’t abandon them once again?

Related News

TURKISH-BACKED FORCES SHELL RUSSIAN MILITARY POLICE IN NORTHEASTERN SYRIA, WAR REPORT

South Front

On October 29, a patrol of the Russian Military Police came under a mortar fire near the border village of Darbasiyah. The village is located just east of the Turkish-controlled town of Ras al-Ayn. The Russians were there to discuss with their Turkish counterparts the start of joint border patrols, which had been agreed in the framework of the Russia-Turkey ‘de-escalation zone’ deal on northeastern Syria.

Initial reports suggested that at least two Russian military personnel were injured in the attack. However, later, they were denied. Turkish-backed forces claimed that they did not fire at the Russians and pointed out that the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces may be interested in such an incident.

On October 28, Russian and Turkish military officials met in Ankara to discuss the implementation of the de-escalation zone agreement and lay down a plan for further joint actions in the region.

Units of the Syrian Army continued deployment along the Turkish border in a 90km-wide area from the eastern countryside of Ras al-Ayn to the city of al-Qamishly in northeastern Syria. According to Syria’s SANA, government forces entered at least 20 settlements in the area.

The Syrian Army is currently working to reinforce its positions along the entire border area west and east of Turkey’s Operation Peace Spring on the eastern bank of the Euphrates.

On October 28, Syria and Russia opened a floating bridge linking the two banks of Euphrates River in the province of Der Ezzor. The bridge links the towns of al-Mre’eyeh and Mrat. It was constructed thanks to assistance from and under protection of Russian forces.

Deir Ezzor governor Abdul Majid al-Kawakibi said that the bridge was constructed “in response to the needs and demands of the people in the governorate northern countryside”. The bridge will allow them “to communicate with the rest of governorate areas”.

Earlier, the US-led coalition destroyed all the bridges in the area. A part of them was destroyed in the framework of the coalition’s campaign against ISIS. Later, the destruction of the infrastructure was a tool of cutting off links between people in the US-controlled and government-controlled areas.

On October 28, US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper once again warned that the US is not going to abandon oil fields on the eastern bank of the river. According to him, the US will respond with “overwhelming force” to any group that would threaten the safety of US forces there.

Related

Revisiting the win-win-win-win outcome in Syria

Revisiting the win-win-win-win outcome in Syria

The Saker

[this analysis was written for the Unz Review]

In his recent article “The Road to Damascus: How the Syria War Was Won” Pepe Escobar summarized the outcome of the war in Syria in the following way:

It’s a quadruple win. The U.S. performs a face saving withdrawal, which Trump can sell as avoiding a conflict with NATO ally Turkey. Turkey has the guarantee – by the Russians – that the Syrian Army will be in control of the Turkish-Syrian border. Russia prevents a war escalation and keeps the Russia-Iran-Turkey peace process alive. And Syria will eventually regain control of the entire northeast.”

This otherwise excellent summary overlooks two out of three members of the “Axis of Kindness”, including Israel and the KSA.  Of course, later in his analysis Pepe does address these actors, and also includes Kuwait. Furthermore, a thorough discussion of what took place would have to also include China, Hezbollah, Yemen and the EU (well, the ones that matter, the UK and France.  The rest are just voiceless colonies of the USA).

Most of the analyses of what just took place focused on the “what”.  I will try to look into the “why” and the “how” of what just happened in Syria.  Still,  I don’t propose to make such a detailed analysis, but I do want to re-classify the actors in a somewhat different way: by their relative strength.

Actor Theoretical Strength
The “Axis of Kindness”:United States+CENTCOM+NATO+Israel+KSA by far the most powerful actor almost by any measure: a bigger military force then all the other actors combined (at least when looked at regionally), huge economic power (the dollar is still THE #1 currency on the planet), total control of the region (via CENTCOM) and quasi unconditional support from Europe (via NATO).  Finally, Israel does pack a powerful military punch.  This actor has only ONE weakness, but more about that later.
Iran+Hezbollah+Houthi+Shia forces in Iraq in regional terms, Iran is the local superpower which can even successfully defy the Axis of Kindness forces (and has done so since the Islamic Revolution of 1979).
Russia+Syria I placed Russia and Syria in the same group and I could have added Iran, but since I believe that Russia objectively has more power over the Syrian government than Iran, I think that it is important to put Russia and Syria together simply because Damascus cannot say “no” to Moscow, but could do so, at least in theory, to Tehran.  Finally, Russia and Iran agree on the main issues, but have different visions for the future of the Middle-East.  Thus this is another reason to look at them separately, even if not necessarily in opposition to each other.  In military terms, Russia is very strong, then very vulnerable, then very strong again, it all depends on your level of analysis (see below)
Turkey+pro-Turkish factions in Syria That one is a difficult one to classify.  On one hand, Turkey does not have any regional allies (the Ottoman Empire left only hatred and deep resentment in its former colonies).  For a while, the pro-Turkish factions, which were liberally showered with weapons, money, training, logistical support, etc, by the US and the KSA, but eventually these factions grew weaker and weaker until they reached a state of advanced impotence leaving Turkey pretty much alone (we will also look into that below).
The Kurds For a while, they sure looked potentially powerful: not only did the Kurds have a pretty big military power (albeit mostly one restricted to infantry), they had the support of Axis of Kindness and, especially, Israel which saw any form of Independent Kurdistan as a great tool to weaken and even threaten Iraq, Turkey, Iran and Syria.  Furthermore, the Kurds happened to control a lot of oil rich regions and they could always retreat in the mountainous areas if needed.
The Takfiris (i.e. the many and constantly name-changing franchises of what used to be called “al-Qaeda”). In reality, the Takfiris really ought to be classified together with the Axis of Kindness since they have been the foot-soldiers/cannon-fodder for the AngloZionist since the 1980s (from Afghanistan then to modern day Syria).  Nonetheless, we will consider them as distinct from the rest of the Axis of Kindness forces.

Of course, and just like any other taxonomy, this one is necessarily somewhat subjective and others might use different criteria or categories.  Now let’s look at what I believe is the key to the control of the entire region: the ability to place “boots on the ground” or the lack of such an ability:

Actor Ability to place boots on the ground
The “Axis of Kindness”:United States+CENTCOM+NATO+Israel+KSA This is The One Big Weakness of the Axis of Kindness members: while they have huge armed forces, and even nuclear weapons, while they can deploy numerically very large forces, while they can (arguably) achieve air and naval supremacy/superiority pretty much anywhere in the region, they cannot follow up any of these options with a credible ground force.  While this is always carefully obfuscated by the legacy AngloZionist propaganda, the US, Israeli and KSA ground forces are only capable of murdering civilians or primitive resistance forces en masse.  But as soon as any of these militaries meets a halfway decent enemy force which is willing to fight on the ground, they are defeated (name me ONE meaningful victory of these Axis of Kindness forces in the last couple of decades or more!).
Iran+Hezbollah+Houthi+Shia forces in Iraq The Iranians and their local allies (calling them “proxies” completely misses the real nature of the relationship between Iran and these regional forces!) are all capable of deploying very capable ground forces.  In fact, they have all done so with tremendous success (especially Hezbollah).  What Iran provides to this informal alliance is the capability to augment it with new, high-tech and modern weapons, including anti-shipping missiles, air defenses, ATGMs, communications, drones, etc.  In terms of ground forces, this alliance is the #1 power in the region.
Russia+Syria Both Russia and Syria have very competent and well-balanced forces deployed in Syria.  However, truth be told, I believe that Hezbollah+Iran currently have even more military weight, at least in terms of ground forces in Syria.  The thing to keep in mind is this: if only Russian forces existed inside Syria (Tartus, Khmeimin, plus assorted special units all over Syria) then Russia is definitely weaker than the Axis of Kindness.  But if we assume that Russian forces outside Syria could (and probably would!) intervene to defend the Russian forces inside Syria, then we would have to flip much of this equation around and categorize Russia as even more powerful than the Axis of Kindness (I will explain in more detail why and how below).
Turkey+pro-Turkish factions in Syria There can be no doubt that at the initiation of the international aggression against Syria, Turkey had a credible and powerful military.  Then something went very wrong and with each new development (starting with the coup attempt against Erdogan) Turkey only got weaker and weaker.  The country which dared to shoot down a Russian Su-24 eventually found itself in the humiliating position to have to ask for Russian help not once, but over and over again.  The latest Turkish invasion of northern Syria has proven that, while the Turks can still beat the Kurds, that’s about all they can do, and even that not very well.
The Kurds Frankly, I never believed in the chances of the Kurds for anything even remotely resembling an independent Kurdistan.  Oh sure, my sympathies were often with the Kurds (at least in their struggle against Turkey), but I always knew that the notion of imposing some new (and very artificial) state against the will of ALL the regional powers was both naive and self-defeating.  The truth is that the US and Israel simply *used* the Kurds if and when needed, and ditched them as soon as it became obvious that the Kurds outlived their utility.  The best the Kurds will ever get is a regional autonomy in Iran, Iraq and Syria.  Anything else is a dangerous pipe dream.
The Takfiris (i.e. the many and constantly name-changing franchises of what used to be called “al-Qaeda”). Just like the Turks, the various Takfiris appeared as a formidable force when the aggression against Syria was initiated.  And if the the US GWOT appeared to be a true blessing for the “good terrorists” (that’s, of course, all the terrorists in this region) it is because it was.  Then something went very very wrong, and now they look as weak and clueless as the Kurds.

Now let’s sum this up.  This is how the relative strength of these regional actors has changed since the initiation of the AngloZionist aggression against Syria:

Actor Evolution of strength of each regional power
The “Axis of Kindness”:United States+CENTCOM+NATO+Israel+KSA DOWN: from strongest to one of the weakest in the region
Iran+Hezbollah+Houthi+Shia forces in Iraq UP: arguably the most balanced military force in the region
Russia+Syria UP: in a process which only *looked* like sheer “good luck” Russia and Syria grew stronger and stronger with each passing year.
Turkey+pro-Turkish factions in Syria DOWN: in sharp contrast to Russia, a weird process of what *looked* like sheer “bad luck” Turkey and its allies in Syria just seemed to get weaker and weaker with each passing year.
The Kurds DOWN: the Kurds made the immense mistake of believing all the empty promises (often called “plan B”, “plan C”, “plan D”, etc.) made by the AngloZionists.  Now all their dreams are over and they will have to settle for autonomy inside Iraq and Syria.
The Takfiris (i.e. the many and constantly name-changing franchises of what used to be called “al-Qaeda”). DOWN: their situation is almost as bad as the one of the Kurds.  Their sole advantage is that they are not linked to any one piece of land and that they can try to regroup somewhere else in the region (or even the world); never say never again, but it looks to me like this will not happen in the foreseeable future.

It is now time to try to make sense of all this and try answer the question of why one group of relatively strong actors had so much bad luck as to become weaker and weaker, while the weaker became stronger and stronger.

The first thing we need to agree upon is that irrespective of the public posturing, everybody is, and has been, talking to everybody else.  This “conversation” could be official and public, or behind closed doors, or even by means of intermediaries and, last but not least, a state version of “body language”: by means of actions which send a message to the other party or parties.  Still, while this is certainly true, it is the quality of the communications between the various parties which made all the difference.  When, say, Netanyahu or Trump publicly proclaim they they don’t give a damn about anything at all (including international law) and that they reserve the right to threaten or even attack anybody, at any time, for any reason whatsoever, this is a very clear message to, say, the Iranians.  But what is that message, really?  It says a couple of things:

  1. Resistance is futile because we are so much stronger than you and therefore
  2. We don’t give a damn about you or your national interests and therefore
  3. We are not interested in negotiating with you (or anybody else for that matter).  Your only solution is to submit to us

This is really crucial.  The USA and Israel have proclaimed their total superiority over the entire planet and, specifically, over every single actor in the Middle-East.  Furthermore, their entire worldview and ideology is predicated on this very strong sense of military superiority.   Ask any Israeli or US American what their countries will do if some coalition of local powers is successful in attacking them: they will reply something along the lines of “we will simply nuke all the friggin’ ragheads and sand-niggers – f**k them!”.  This line is always delivered with a tone of absolute finality, a total certitude and the mental equivalent of “’nuff said!”.

Alas, for the Axis of Kindness, this is a completely counter-factual belief.  Why?

First, the quick appeal to nukes is an implicit admission that there is something very wrong with the rest of the armed forces of the Axis of Kindness.  Furthermore, the real regional powers all understand that it is not in their interest to give the US or Israel a pretext to use nukes.  Thus, while, say, the Iranians sure have the means to strike Israel or any one of the many CENTCOM facilities in the Middle-East, they have been very careful to keep their counter-attacks below the dangerous threshold in which the legacy AngloZionist corporate media would be unable to conceal the magnitude of the disaster and demand that nukes be used (yes, if it comes to that, both the Israeli and the US media will demand nuclear strikes just as they cheered for every war of aggression ever committed by the USA and Israel).

Second, precisely because the US and Israel are unable to have real allies (they only have colonies run by comprador elites), they cannot operate successfully in a multi-lateral kind of relationship with other actors.  The contrast between the US/Israel, on one hand, and Russia and Iran, on the other, could not be greater.  Both Russia and Iran understand that having real allies is much more advantageous than having puppets.  Why?  Because in order to convince somebody to become your ally you absolutely have to offer that party something tangible as part of a compromise goal setting.  When this is done, the weaker ally feels that it is defending its own interests and not the interests of a patron which might be unreliable or which might even backstab you.

Third, one of the best US experts on the theory of negotiations, Professor William Zartman, wrote in his seminal book “The Practical Negotiator” that

One of the eternal paradoxes of negotiations is that it allows the weak to confront the strong and still come away with something which should not be possible if weakness and strength were all that mattered (…).  Weaker parties tend to seek more formal negotiating forums and to strengthen their hand through organizations (…).  Weak states can afford erratic or irresponsible behavior more easily than stronger parties, particularly when the rules of regularity and responsibility favor the strong (…).  Weak states do best by rewarding stronger states’ concessions rather than than by “hanging tough” and by opening high to indicate needs and to facilitate rewards (…).  The tactics of toughness and softness vary according to the strength of the parties: under symmetry, toughness tends to lead to toughness and under asymmetry to softness, with weaker parties following the leader of stronger parties.

There is a lot to unpack here (and there is much more in this book which I highly recommend to everybody!).

First, let’s compare and contrast the Russia and US approaches to creating negotiation fora.  The US cooked up the “Friends of Syria” forum which was most remarkable in two unique ways:  first, in spite of calling itself “Friends of Syria” this group only contained a who’s who of Syria’s, Iran’s and Russia’s enemies (just like to “Friends of Libya” was a cornucopia of countries hostile to Libya).  Secondly, the self-evident (and not really denied) purpose and function of this group was to bypass the UNSC.  There is nothing new here, the US has been trying to replace the UN and its role in upholding international law with all sorts of gimmicks including “coalition of the willing” or appeals for a “rules-based international order”.  Needless to say, with the possible exception of a few truly dim propagandists, all these tricks are designed to avoid the already existing international fora, beginning with the United Nations.  Russia, in contrast, not only used the UN for all its (admitted limited) worth and succeeded in forcing the USA to accept resolutions on Syria (or the Ukraine for that matter) which the US did not want to agree to, but which they could not veto on political considerations.  Not only that, Russia also created the Astana peace process which, unlike the US created fantasies, brought together different parties including parties hostile to each other.  The most brilliant move of the Russians was to impose on all parties the notion that “those willing to negotiate are legitimate parties whose interests must be considered while those who refused to sit down are all terrorists“.  Of course, the many al-Qaeda franchises tried to play the “rebranding game”, but this did not help: you can change names once every 24 hours if you want, but if you ain’t sitting down at the negotiating table you are a terrorist and, therefore, a legitimate target for Russian/Iranian/Syrian attacks.  Once the Empire had to accept these terms, backed by a UNSC resolution, it became locked-in in a process which they could only stop by means of a military victory.

And here we come back to the boots on the ground issue.  For all its combined military power, the Axis of Kindness does not have a ground force it can put on the ground.  Whereas the Syrians, Hezbollah, Iran and Russia very neatly and most effectively (even if informally) agreed to the following assignment of tasks:

  1. The Syrians will let the Russians reorganize their armed forces, especially a few elite units, and slowly, step-by-step liberate their lands.
  2. The Iranians and Hezbollah will act like a fire-brigade and will directly support the Syrian operations with their own forces in crucial sectors of the line of contact.
  3. The Russians will take control of the Syrian airspace and provide the Syrians, Iran and Hezbollah protection from AngloZionist missile and bomb strikes.  Finally, Russian special operation forces will be engaged in high priority operations which are beyond Iranian or Hezbollah capabilities.

What was the biggest obstacle to the Syrian-Iranian-Hezbollah-Russian plans?

Turkey, of course.  The Turks have always hated Assad (father and son) and their Neo-Ottoman delusions still give them a, shall we say, “special desire” to intervene beyond their own borders.  Furthermore, Turkey also very much saw Syria as a contributing factor to their “Kurdish problem”.  Finally, Turkey did have the kind of military which made it possible for it to threaten intervention or even intervene in Iraq and Syria (obviously not against Iran).  Thus, what Russia needed to do was take Turkey out of the equation or, at least, weaken Turkey as much as possible.  And that is exactly what Russia did.

For the Kremlin the shooting down of the Su-24 was tantamount to a declaration of war.  Except that the Russians, quite aware of their relative weakness if compared to the US+NATO+CENTCOM+Turkey, wisely decided not to retaliate in kind and, say, strike Turkish military facilities.  But Putin did promise “you won’t get away with just not selling us tomatoes” (Russia imposed an embargo on a number of Turkish export goods).  Besides a number of political and economic sanctions, you can be sure that the Russians decided to use all their methods and means to weaken and destabilize both Erdogan personally and Turkey as a whole.  Then, here is what happened:

  • On November 24th, 2015, Turkey shot down a Russian Su-24
  • In the next days, Russia closed down the north Syrian airspace, severed all contacts with the Turkish military, promised to shoot down any other Turkish aircraft attacking any target in Syria (regardless from what airspace) and imposed political and economic sanctions.
  • In December Putin ominously declared “Если кто-то думает, что, совершив подлое военное преступление: убийство наших людей — они отделаются помидорами, или какими-то ограничениями в строительной и других отраслях, то они глубоко заблуждаются” (“if somebody thinks that by committing a vile war crime they will get away with tomatoes or some type of restrictions in the construction and other industries, they are profoundly mistaken“).
  • In June 2016,  Erdogan sent a letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin expressing sympathy and ‘deep condolences’.
  • On 15 July 2016, a coup d’état was attempted against Erdogan and almost cost him his life.  By all accounts, Russia played some kind of behind-the-scenes role and saved Erdogan’s life and power.
  • Following the failed coup, Turkey embarked on a major re-alignment and cast its lot with Russia and Iran, even if that meant having to accept Assad in power in Syria.

What exactly Russia did behind the scenes (versions range from warning Erdogan to actually using Russian special forces to evacuate him in extremis) will probably remain a secret for many years, but neither does it really matter.  All we know for sure, is that after the coup, Erdogan made a 180 and completely changed his tune.  My personal belief is that the Russians used their covert means to entice the US and its Gulenist CIA puppets to try to overthrow Erdogan only to then foil their coup attempt.  I find the two other main options (the US is fantastically stupid and incompetent and Russia is an amazingly lucky country) much harder to believe.  But even if we accept these options, or some combination thereof, Russia still superbly played her cards (by, for example, using the pretext of Turkey’s downing the Su-24 to strongly beef up Russian air defense capabilities in Syria) and Turkey was removed as a “powerful hostile actor” from the Russian equation of the Middle-East.

After that, what was left was only a kind of “political and military mopping-op operation.

Russia repeatedly tried to make the Kurds realize that their strategy of fighting every single neighbor they had was a non-starter which will inevitably backfire.  Alas for the Kurdish people, their leaders were either too delusional, or too corrupt, to understand this.  In the meantime, Erdogan and the rest of the Turkish political establishment were adamant they Turkey would under no circumstances allow the Syrian (or Iraqi) Kurds to ever establish their own state.

[Sidebar: I really feel sad for the Kurds, but I also have to say that they really did it to themselves.  This ought to be systematically studied, but their appears to be two kinds of small nations: those who are smart enough to play one big neighbor against the other while collaborating with both (say Kazakhstan or Mongolia) and then there are those who have no sense of history at all and who end up repeating the same mistakes over and over again like, say, the Poles or the Kurds.  These nations always have a bloated sense of self-worth which leads them to act as if they were the big guys on the block and every time all they achieve is alienating all their truly big neighbors.  Apparently, irrespective of the number of times these folks were smacked down by others in history, their narcissistic self-aggrandizement and, frankly, arrogance, gets them invaded, then invaded again and then invaded some more.  You could say that they are born losers or that they “failed to learn the lessons of history”.  Same difference, really]

For the Kremlin, the solution was obvious: use the Turks to force the Kurds to accept the inevitable but don’t let the Turks establish a permanent invasion force in northern Syria.

True, the Russians have voiced their rather flaccid disapproval of the Turkish operation and they called everybody to come back to the negotiation table.  This is one rather rare example in which Russia’s rhetoric did not match her actions because in reality the Turkish operation would have been absolutely impossible if the Russians had not given Ankara an unofficial, but very trustworthy, go ahead beforehand.  Furthermore, according to at least one report (which I find reasonably credible) the Russian Aerospace Forces even scrambled a pair of Su-35S to engage a Turkish pair of F-16 which, as soon as they saw what was about to happen, decided to make a run for their lives.  Yet, in other instances, we know for a fact that F-16’s were used against Kurdish targets.  It is pretty clear that the Russians not only told Erdogan what was acceptable and what was not, they also “fine tuned” the Turkish operation just so it would force the Kurds to negotiate while not making it possible for the Turks to establish any kind of meaningful presence in northern Syria.

What happened next was a domino effect.  The Kurds tried to fight as best they could, but everybody realized that they were doomed.  The US Americans, very predictably and, I would argue, very logically, also ran for their lives.  Trump used this (totally true, but nevertheless pretext) to get out of Syria (at least officially) not only to protect US lives, but to also get out of the political quicksand which Syria has become for the Axis of Kindness.

Last but not least, the Israelis were absolutely livid, and for good reason: there is no doubt that they are the biggest losers in this entire process and they now find themselves in the situation of depending on a pretend superpower which cannot deliver anything of value (except loads of dollars which the Israelis spend on a lot of useless hardware).  The recent events in the region have not only shown that US ground forces plainly suck, they have also show that US guarantees are worthless while US weapons systems are vastly over-rated.

Here we come to what I believe is the single most important development of this conflict: ALL the many Israeli plans for the region collapsed one after the other.  Most pathetically, all the trips Netanyahu made to Russia to try to con the Russians into taking Israel seriously have failed.  Why?  Because the Russians have long understood that Israel is a paper tiger with impressive “roar” (aka the massive international Zionist propaganda machine known as the “western free media” among infants and dull people) but who is unable to follow up its loud roaring with anything more tangible.  Yes, I know, the worse things go for the Israelis, the bigger their boastful propaganda becomes: after having promised that the “invincible IDF” conducted “hundreds” of strikes in Syria and Iraq they now make noises about having a “killing list” which includes Hassan Nasrallah.  Right.  As for their “hundreds” of airstrikes, they must be the most inept and poorly executed air campaign since the total failure of NATO’s air campaign in Kosovo.  Ask yourself this basic question:

If the Israelis have been conducting “hundreds” of airstrikes in Syria – why have they not resulted in any tangible effects on the military situation on the ground?

After all, when the Russians intervened, they changed the course of the entire war.  In fact, the (very small) Russian Aerospace task force in Syria reversed the course of that war.

Why did the Russian air campaign yield such truly phenomenal results and why did the Israel air campaign yield absolutely nothing (except some much needed psychotherapy for the many Zionists who suffer form what Gilad Atzmon brilliantly referred to as “pre-traumatic stress disorder”)?

The answer is simple: one was a real military campaign while the other was just “feel good” PR.

A very good example of Zartman’s thesis that “Weak states can afford erratic or irresponsible behavior more easily than stronger parties, particularly when the rules of regularity and responsibility favor the strong” can be found in the relative position of, on one hand, Iran, Hezbollah and the Houthis and, on the other, the US and Israel.  Not that Iran or its allies have acted irresponsibly, they have not, but when they reacted, it was always with a double message: we don’t want war, but we are ready for it.  But when the US engages in rather crude threats (just think of all the silly threats Trump has made during his presidency, including the most recent ones to wage war on Turkey if needed, not a joke, check here), these threats always end up further weakening the USA.  It is a true blessing for Russia, Iran, Hezbollah and the Syrians that their enemies are not only so inept, but also so good at cornering themselves in the worst kind of situations.  In the end, the US still managed to lose face, even if you were never told about it.  What do I mean?

Just look at what just took place:  Trump sent Erdogan such a crude and rude letter (he sounds like a 10 year old), which was so insulting to Erdogan that he not only tossed it in the trash bin, but he also made sure to tell his aides to “leak” to the media how Erdogan treated Trump’s silly threats and insults.   Turkey also launched a full-scale invasion and clearly challenged the USA to do something about it.  At this point, the two other “geniuses” in the White House (Pompeo and VP Pence) had to scramble to Ankara in what was clearly a desperate “damage control” mission, beg for a meeting, and then beg the Turks to agree to an entirely symbolic ceasefire which gave just enough time for the Kurds to agree to all the Syrian terms and to let the Syrian army take control of huge swaths of land without firing a single shot.  Now here is the beauty of it all:

Pompeo and Pence demanded that Erdogan agree exactly to the kind of balanced outcome the Russians have been advocating all along!  I am amazed that the Dem-media has not accused Pompeo and Pence of being Russian agents because what they just “demanded” and “obtained” from Turkey is exactly what Putin wanted 🙂

Of course, this was all wrapped in all sorts of threats and promises to wipe out this or that country (including Turkey, a NATO member state which could, in theory, invoke Art 5 and ask NATO to defend it against the USA!  Of course, this would not happen as this would mark the end of NATO) and all the rest of the obligatory barking we always hear from the US when the “best military in world history” fails to achieve anything at all (even if Trump seriously claims that the US – not Russia – defeated the Takfiris the West has so lovingly been federating, supporting, I strongly believe, directing them for decades).  Yes, Trump did the right thing when he declared that he wanted the US forces out of Syria, but let’s not be naive about that either: he did not order that because he is some great humanitarian, but because if the Turks, the Kurds, the Syrians or anybody else had taken a hard shot at the US forces in the region, this would have resulted in a bigger war which would certainly cost Trump his presidency.

Which brings us to the Russian task force in Syria.  As I said, it is strong, then weak and then strong again.  It all depends on your assumptions:

If we look just at the Russian task force in Khmeinim and Tartus, we see that it is protected by cutting edge Russian weapons systems including S-400s, Su-34s, Su-35S, EW stations, battle management stations, etc.  This is more than enough to beat back a pretty powerful missile and/or bombing strike.  In this case we can think of the Russian task force in Syria as very powerful and capable of dealing with many types of attack.

On the next level, however, it becomes obvious that the biggest weakness of the Russian task force in Syria has been, from day 1, its very small size.  Irrespective of its sophistication, the Russian air defenses can be over-run by a determined attack by any combination of Axis of Kindness forces simply because at the end of the day, air defenses are always a part of a numbers game.  Even in the best of cases, one Russian air defense missile can only engage one attacking missile or aircraft.  For an attack to be successful, all the Axis of Kindness forces need to do is calculate how many missiles the Russians have, then shoot about 1.5x that number of (rather antiquated) Tomahawks, and once the Russians use up their stores, follow up with a second wave of missiles, this time modern and difficult to target ones.  At this point the Russians would have to reply with only their AA artillery and their EW capabilities.  Inevitably, there will come a point when they will be overwhelmed.  In this scenario, Russia is the weaker party and the Russian task force is doomed in case of a sustained US/NATO/CENTCOM attack.

Finally, there is a third level which the AngloZionists have to consider: the Russians have made it pretty clear that in case of an attack on the Russian task force in Syria, Russia will use her strategic striking capabilities to protect her task force.  Such measures could include: long range cruise missile attack and air strikes (possibly coming from the Iranian airspace).  In this case, as my friend Andrey Martyanov explained many times, including in his article “Russia’s Stand-Off Capability: the 800 Pound Gorilla in Syria” which he concluded by the follow words:

“This simple, single operational fact shows precisely why for two years a relatively small Russian military contingent has been able to operate so effectively in Syria and, in fact, dictate conditions on the ground and in the area of its operations. The answer is simple—many adrenaline junkies are lowered in a cage into the water to face sharks, with only metal rods separating them and sharks’ deadly jaws. Yet, up there, in the boat one can always put a man with a gun which can be used in case of emergency to a deadly effect should the cage give. The Russian military contingent in Syria is not just some military base—it is the force tightly integrated with Russian Armed Forces that have enough reach and capability to make anyone face some extremely unpleasant choices, including the fact that it is Russia, not the US, who controls escalation to a threshold and that can explain a non-stop anti-Russian hysteria in US media since the outcome of the war in Syria became clear”

Here, again, we have the same stance as Iran’s: we don’t want war, but we are ready for it.  One could say that the US stance is the polar opposite: we do want war (heck, we *need* it for political and economic reasons!), but we are completely unprepared for it (including psychologically).

Conclusion: remember all those who are now proven wrong!

Remember all the folks who predicted with absolute confidence that Russia was “selling out” Syria?  They began their tune when Russia prevented a US attack on Syria by catching the US at its word and offering to remove all chemical weapons from Syria.  Not only were these weapons useless, they were a prefect pretext for the Axis of Kindness to strike Syria.  The US was livid, but had to accept.  Well, all the “Putin/Russia is/are selling out” Syria immediately claimed that Russia was disarming Syria to make it easier for Israel to attack.

Yet, in reality, no (meaningful) Israeli attack ever materialized.

Then the same folks claimed that Russia “allowed” Israel to strike Syria, that the Russians turned off their S-300s/S-400s, etc, etc, etc.

Yet, in reality, the US pretty much gave up, while the Israelis claimed “hundreds” of sorties.  Maybe they even did hit a few empty and therefore unprotected buildings, who knows?

Then there was the massive choir of trolls declaring that Russia would partition Syria.  Yet, for all the convincing sounding arguments (at least to those who did not understand Russia or the Middle-East), one by one the various “good terrorists” strongholds fell to the Syrian military.  Now more Syrian land has been liberated than ever before.  As for the Turks, they can dream on about a bigger Turkey or about creating some kind of security/buffer zone, but they understand that they cannot do that if Russia and Syria both oppose this.  In fact, Turkey has officially promised to respect the territorial integrity of Syria (see here, in Russian)

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

President of the Republic of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President of The Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin agreed on the following points:

1. The two sides reiterate their commitment to the preservation of the political unity and territorial integrity of Syria and the protection of national security of Turkey.

2. They emphasize their determination to combat terrorism in all forms and manifestations and to disrupt separatist agendas in the Syrian territory.

3. In this framework, the established status quo in the current Operation Peace Spring area covering Tel Abyad and Ras Al Ayn with a depth of 32 km will be preserved.

4. Both sides reaffirm the importance of the Adana Agreement. The Russian Federation will facilitate the implementation of the Adana Agreement in the current circumstances.

5. Starting 12.00 noon of October 23, 2019, Russian military police and Syrian border guards will enter the Syrian side of the Turkish-Syrian border, outside the area of Operation Peace Spring, to facilitate the removal of YPG elements and their weapons to the depth of 30 km from the Turkish-Syrian border, which should be finalized in 150 hours. At that moment, joint Russian-Turkish patrols will start in the west and the east of the area of Operation Peace Spring with a depth of 10 km, except Qamishli city.

6. All YPG elements and their weapons will be removed from Manbij and Tal Rifat.

7. Both sides will take necessary measures to prevent infiltrations of terrorist elements.

8. Joint efforts will be launched to facilitate the return of refugees in a safe and voluntary manner.

9. A joint monitoring and verification mechanism will be established to oversee and coordinate the implementation of this memorandum.

10. The two sides will continue to work to find a lasting political solution to the Syrian conflict within Astana Mechanism and will support the activity of the Constitutional Committee.

 

Memorandum of Understanding Between Turkey and the Russian Federation

http://en.kremlin.ru/supplement/5452

October 22, 2019 (emphasis added by me, VS)

President of the Republic of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President of The Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin agreed on the following points:

1. The two sides reiterate their commitment to the preservation of the political unity and territorial integrity of Syria and the protection of national security of Turkey.

2. They emphasize their determination to combat terrorism in all forms and manifestations and to disrupt separatist agendas in the Syrian territory.

3. In this framework, the established status quo in the current Operation Peace Spring area covering Tel Abyad and Ras Al Ayn with a depth of 32 km will be preserved.

4. Both sides reaffirm the importance of the Adana Agreement. The Russian Federation will facilitate the implementation of the Adana Agreement in the current circumstances.

5. Starting 12.00 noon of October 23, 2019, Russian military police and Syrian border guards will enter the Syrian side of the Turkish-Syrian border, outside the area of Operation Peace Spring, to facilitate the removal of YPG elements and their weapons to the depth of 30 km from the Turkish-Syrian border, which should be finalized in 150 hours. At that moment, joint Russian-Turkish patrols will start in the west and the east of the area of Operation Peace Spring with a depth of 10 km, except Qamishli city.

6. All YPG elements and their weapons will be removed from Manbij and Tal Rifat.

7. Both sides will take necessary measures to prevent infiltrations of terrorist elements.

8. Joint efforts will be launched to facilitate the return of refugees in a safe and voluntary manner.

9. A joint monitoring and verification mechanism will be established to oversee and coordinate the implementation of this memorandum.

10. The two sides will continue to work to find a lasting political solution to the Syrian conflict within Astana Mechanism and will support the activity of the Constitutional Committee.

The key elements of this MoU are

  1. USA out, Russia in
  2. Syria’s borders cannot be changed

You can see the full press conference of Putin and Erdogan by clicking here.

Finally, this is the reaction of one of the worst AngloZionist propaganda outlets in Europe:

Title: The capitulation of the West

“Die Kapitulation des Westens” (The Capitulation of the West).

I can’t say that I disagree with their conclusion 🙂

Finally, does this “capitulation talk” not remind you of something else we have all seen recently?

Yes, of course, the Ukronazi “Ні капітуляції!” (no to the capitulation!).

Again, what does all that talk of “capitulation” strongly suggest?

If this is not a triumph of Russian diplomacy then I don’t know what this is!

And, just for those who disagree, let me throw in a rhetorical question:

If Putin is such a loser who “sells out” everything and who works with/for Israel and for Netanyahu specifically, if Russia is so weak and clueless, why is it that it is not the Russian people who are denouncing a “capitulation” but, instead, why are all the enemies of Russia freaking out about capitulating?

*******

And now, where do we go from here?

Actually, I am very cautiously optimistic since there is a huge difference between Russia and the USA: the USA needs constant wars simply in order to survive, whereas Russia needs peace to flourish.  Now that the Russians are the biggest player in the Middle-East (well, with the Iranians, of course), they will use the fact that they have pretty good relationships with everybody, including (former?) enemies of Russia like the KSA or the UAE.

Of course, there shall be no peace between Israel and the rest of the Middle-East, if only because by its very nature Israel is a mortal threat to every country in the region, even for countries which currently eagerly collaborate with Israel (like the KSA). The only way for the long suffering Middle-East to finally live in peace again would be for  the Zionist “occupation regime over Jerusalem to vanish from the arena of time” to use the famous, and often mistranslated, words of Ayatollah Khomeini.  The current Iranian Supreme leader also clearly spelled out the only manner in which the Palestinian question can be solved peace will be achieved in the Middle-East:

“The Islamic Republic’s proposal to help resolve the Palestinian issue and heal this old wound is a clear and logical initiative based on political concepts accepted by world public opinion, which has already been presented in detail. We do not suggest launching a classic war by the armies of Muslim countries, or throwing immigrant Jews into the sea, or mediation by the UN and other international organizations. We propose holding a referendum with [the participation of] the Palestinian nation. The Palestinian nation, like any other nation, has the right to determine their own destiny and elect the governing system of the country.”

Both Iranian leaders are absolutely correct.  There shall never be peace in the region as long as a crazed racist regime which has only contempt for the rest of the planet continues its slow motion genocide of the indigenous population of Palestine.

In the meantime, now that Syria, Russia, Iran, the Houthis, Hezbollah and the Shia forces in Iraq have successfully shown Uncle Shmuel the door out of Syria, the last Israeli plan (a “plan Z” perhaps) has now collapsed along with any hopes of creating an independent Kurdistan.

Israel is in no condition to take on such a powerful coalition.  I would argue that even the US cannot win against this force, even if it still is capable of triggering a bloodbath (just like the Israelis did in 2006).

Of all the strategic collapses we have seen under the Obama and Trump presidencies, the loss of influence in the Middle-East is probably the biggest one of them all.  This is a very positive development for the region and for the world.  Now let’s just hope that whoever makes it into the White House in 2020 will understand that this is a done deal and will not try to make “the Empire great again” and reverse that course as any such attempts will result in a major regional war.

The Saker

PS: here is a video of the “best military in history” being pelted by stones and veggies by disgusted Kurds while the US forces evacuate in a hurry.  Really says it all, doesn’t it?  Feel the love 😉

It also appears that the same sentiment is shared by the Iraqis who are now trying to take legal action to finally also give the boot to Uncle Shmuel, see here: https://www.rt.com/news/471645-iraq-pleads-un-help-us-troops/

Again, feel the love, the respect and the (lack) of fear 🙂

 

سورية تنتصر على كلّ الجبهات

أكتوبر 16, 2019

د. محمد سيد أحمد

عندما بدأ العدوان التركي على شمال شرق سورية منذ أيام عدة، كانت كلمتي الأولى هي «أنّ ثقتي بالجيش العربي السوري والرئيس بشار الأسد بلا حدود». ثم توالت الدعوات من العديد من المنابر الإعلامية لتحليل الموقف من العدوان ووضع سيناريوات لما هو مقبل، فكان تأكيد أنّ «المتغطي بالأميركي عريان، ومن يستقوي على وطنه بالخارج، مصيره الهزيمة. وعلى الاخوة الأكراد الابتعاد عن قوات قسد والعودة لحضن الوطن». ثم تأكيد أننا لا يجب أن نضيّع البوصلة حيث إنّ «ما تقوم به تركيا من عدوان لا يمكن أن يكون من تلقاء نفسها ولا تهوّراً من أردوغان بل هي تعليمات تلقاها من سيّده الأميركي الأصيل في هذه الحرب الكونية على سورية»، وأنّ الأميركي «عندما شعر بقرب حلّ الأزمة السورية وتشكيل اللجنة الدستورية لمناقشة الدستور، ومع إصرار القيادة والجيش والحلفاء على تحرير كامل التراب الوطني المحتلّ، قرّر أن يبدأ فصلاً جديداً من العدوان لإطالة أمد الحرب».

ولأنّ الأميركي يعلم علم اليقين بفشل مشروعه التقسيمي والتفتيتي لسورية فقد راهن أولاً على قوات قسد الكردية لاقتطاع جزء من الأرض العربية السورية تحت مسمّى سورية الديمقراطية التي سيطرت على الشمال الشرقي لسورية واستولت على ثروات النفط والغاز التي تشتهر بها هذه المنطقة وتمّ تسليح قوات قسد الكردية من قبل أميركا و»إسرائيل» وتمركزت القوات الأميركية والفرنسية والبريطانية في هذه المنطقة للسيطرة عليها ومنع الجيش السوري من الوصول إليها. وعندما وصلنا لمحطة إدلب الأخيرة في مواجهة بقايا الجماعات التكفيرية الإرهابية التي استجلبتها أميركا من كلّ أصقاع الأرض لمواجهة الجيش العربي السوري شعر الأميركي بضعف موقفه، وتأكد أنه في حال الانتهاء من معركة إدلب سيتفرّغ الجيش السوري وحلفاؤه مباشرة لتحرير الشمال الشرقي المحتلّ من ميليشيات قسد وتقليم أظافرهم وإعادة الأخوة الأكراد مرة أخرى لحضن الدولة.

هنا جاء الرهان الأميركي الثاني والمتمثل بحليفه التركي، فأعطاه إشارة البدء بالعدوان على الشمال الشرقي السوري بعد تخليه عن القوات الكردية فتمّ العدوان تحت زعم مضحك ومثير للغثيان وهو مكافحة الإرهاب. وأطلق أردوغان على العملية العدوانية الإرهابيّة مسمّى «نبع السلام». ولم يتذكّر أردوغان وهو يتحدث عن عدوانه تحت هذا المسمّى أنه هو من فتح حدود بلاده منذ اللحظة الأولى للحرب الكونية على سورية للجماعات التكفيرية الإرهابية بأوامر من سيده الأميركي ضارباً بحق الجوار عرض الحائط وناقضاً كل الاتفاقيات والعهود مع الدولة العربية السورية ومنها اتفاقية «أضنة» الموقعة بين البلدين في نهاية عام 1998 والتي على أثرها عاشت تركيا آمنة ومطمئنة على مدار ثلاثة عشر عاماً، وهو الذي ما زال يماطل على طاولة المفاوضات من أجل حماية الإرهابيين في إدلب، لكنه لا يملك من أمره شيئاً فهو عبد لدى سيّده يأمره فينفذ دون تفكير.

وبالطبع يرغب الأميركي بهذا الحلّ استبدال المشروع الانفصالي الكردي بمشروع انفصالي عربي، حيث يقوم أردوغان بعد انتهاء عدوانه بتوطين بعض السوريين الموالين له والذين احتضنتهم تركيا منذ بداية الحرب الكونية على سورية وهم من أعضاء جماعة الإخوان المسلمين الإرهابية لتضمن أميركا بذلك تحقيق جزء من مشروعها وهو تقسيم سورية والاستيلاء على ثرواتها من النفط والغاز الذي تشتهر به هذه المنطقة والذي قامت بسرقته ونهبه عبر السنوات الماضية.

وعندما بدأ العدوان التركي شعر الأكراد بالخطر فقامت ميليشيات قسد المسلحة بالاستغاثة بسيدها الأميركي لإنقاذها من أردوغان وسمعنا في بياناتهما الرسمية وعبر متحدثها العسكري المثير للسخرية كيف يطالب الأميركي بمنع الطيران التركي من دخول المجال الجويّ لكن لا حياة لمن تنادي. هنا فقط تأكد للأكراد حجم الخديعة التي تعرّضوا لها من قبل الأميركان. وفي الوقت الذي أدان فيه المجتمع الدولي عدوان أردوغان اجتمعت الجامعة العربية ووزراء الخارجية العرب في ظل غياب سورية عن مقعدها في الجامعة وأسفرت اجتماعاتهم عن بيان هزيل لا يرقى لمستوى الحدث في الوقت الذي كان وفد من قوات قسد في القاهرة ينتظر العون من الجامعة العربية العاجزة فعادوا مخذولين.

هنا وفي تلك اللحظة كان القرار الحاسم من الرئيس بشار الأسد، حيث قرر التصدّي للعدوان التركي على الأراضي العربية السورية، وأبلغ الحليفين الروسي والإيراني بالقرار، فكان التحرك الفوري وإبلاغ قسد بالقرار مع تأكيد أن مَن سيقف في وجه الجيش العربي السوري سوف يتمّ التعامل معه عسكرياً. وأسفرت هذه المساعي الروسية والإيرانية السريعة مع قسد عن إفساح المجال للجيش العربي السوري في الشمال الشرقي لمواجهة العدوان. وخلال ساعات كانت قوات الجيش العربي السوري قد اقتربت من الحدود السورية التركية، بعد أن تمّ التحذير من عواقب التصادم مع الجيش السوري ومطالبة قيادات قسد وتركيا بالذهاب لطاولة المفاوضات مع الدولة العربية السورية. وكما يعلم الجميع فالجيش العربي السوري وبدعم الحلفاء في محور المقاومة وروسيا لم يدخلوا معركة إلا وانتصروا فيها، ومعارك حلب ودير الزور والبادية والغوطة ودرعا خير شاهد وخير دليل، لذلك كان تأكيدنا الدائم أن سورية ستنتصر على كلّ الجبهات الميدانية والسياسية رغم أنف الأميركان والصهاينة أصحاب المشروع الأصلي.

اللهم بلّغت اللهم فاشهد.

Kurds face stark options after US pullback

Forget an independent Kurdistan: They may have to do a deal with Damascus on sharing their area with Sunni Arab refugees

October 14, 2019

By Pepe Escobar : Posted with Permission

Kurds face stark options after US pullback

Forget an independent Kurdistan: They may have to do a deal with Damascus on sharing their area with Sunni Arab refugees

In the annals of bombastic Trump tweets, this one is simply astonishing: here we have a President of the United States, on the record, unmasking the whole $8-trillion intervention in the Middle East as an endless war based on a “false premise.” No wonder the Pentagon is not amused.
Trump’s tweet bisects the surreal geopolitical spectacle of Turkey attacking a 120-kilometer-long stretch of Syrian territory east of the Euphrates to essentially expel Syrian Kurds. Even after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan cleared with Trump the terms of the Orwellian-named “Operation Peace Spring,” Ankara may now face the risk of US economic sanctions.

The predominant Western narrative credits the Syrian Democratic Forces, mostly Kurdish, for fighting and defeating Islamic State, also known as Daesh. The SDF is essentially a collection of mercenaries working for the Pentagon against Damascus. But many Syrian citizens argue that ISIS was in fact defeated by the Syrian Arab Army, Russian aerial and technical expertise plus advisers and special forces from Iran and Hezbollah.

As much as Ankara may regard the YPG Kurds – the “People’s protection units” – and the PKK as mere “terrorists” (in the PKK’s case aligned with Washington), Operation Peace Spring has in principle nothing to do with a massacre of Kurds.

Facts on the ground will reveal whether ethnic cleansing is inbuilt in the Turkish offensive. A century ago few Kurds lived in these parts, which were populated mostly by Arabs, Armenians and Assyrians. So this won’t qualify as ethnic cleansing on ancestral lands. But if the town of Afrin is anything to go by the consequences could be severe.

Into this heady mix, enter a possible, uneasy pacifier: Russia. Moscow previously encouraged the Syrian Kurds to talk to Damascus to prevent a Turkish campaign – to no avail. But Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov never gives up. He has now said: “Moscow will ask for the start of talks between Damascus and Ankara.” Diplomatic ties between Syria and Turkey have been severed for seven years now.

With Peace Spring rolling virtually unopposed, Kurdish Gen. Mazloum Kobani Abdi did raise the stakes, telling the Americans he will have to make a deal with Moscow for a no-fly zone to protect Kurdish towns and villages against the Turkish Armed Forces. Russian diplomats, off the record, say this is not going to happen. For Moscow, Peace Spring is regarded as “Turkey’s right to ensure its security,” in the words of Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. As long as it does not turn into a humanitarian disaster.

No independent Kurdistan

From Washington’s perspective, everything happening in the volatile Iran-Iraq-Syria-Turkey spectrum is subject to two imperatives: 1) geopolitically, breaking what is regionally regarded as the axis of resistance: Iran, Iraq, Syria, Hezbollah; and 2) geostrategically, breaking the Chinese-led Belt and Road Initiative from being incorporated in both Iraq and Syria, not to mention Turkey.

When Erdogan remarked that the trilateral Ankara summit last month was “productive,” he was essentially saying that the Kurdish question was settled by an agreement among Russia, Turkey and Iran.

Diplomats confirmed that the Syrian Constitutional Committee will work hard towards implementing a federation – implying that the Kurds will have to go back to the Damascus fold. Tehran may even play a role to smooth things over, as Iranian Kurds have also become very active in the YPG command.

The bottom line: there will be no independent Kurdistan – as detailed in a map previously published by the Anadolu news agency.

From Ankara’s point of view, the objective of Operation Peace Spring follows what Erdogan had already announced to the Turkish Parliament – that is, organizing the repatriation of no fewer than two million Syrian refugees to a collection of villages and towns spread over a 30km-wide security zone supervised by the Turkish army.

Yet there has been no word about what happens to an extra, alleged 1.6 million refugees also in Turkey.

Kurdish threats to release control of 50 jails holding at least 11,000 ISIS/Daesh jihadis are just that. The same applies to the al-Hol detention camp, holding a staggering 80,000 ISIS family members. If let loose, these jihadis would go after the Kurds in a flash.

Veteran war correspondent and risk analyst Elijah Magnier provides an excellent summary of the Kurds’ wishful thinking, compared with the priorities of Damascus, Tehran and Moscow:

The Kurds have asked Damascus, in the presence of Russian and Iranian negotiators, to allow them to retain control over the very rich oil and gas fields they occupy in a bit less than a quarter of Syrian territory. Furthermore, the Kurds have asked that they be given full control of the enclave on the borders with Turkey without any Syrian Army presence or activity. Damascus doesn’t want to act as border control guards and would like to regain control of all Syrian territory. The Syrian government wants to end the accommodations the Kurds are offering to the US and Israel, similar to what happened with the Kurds of Iraq.

The options for the YPG Kurds are stark. They are slowly realizing they were used by the Pentagon as mercenaries. Either they become a part of the Syrian federation, giving up some autonomy and their hyper-nationalist dreams, or they will have to share the region they live in with at least two million Sunni Arab refugees relocated under Turkish Army protection.

The end of the dream is nigh. On Sunday, Moscow brokered a deal according to which the key, Kurdish-dominated border towns of Manbij and Kobane go back under the control of Damascus. So Turkish forces will have to back off, otherwise, they will be directly facing the Syrian Arab Army. The game-changing deal should be interpreted as the first step towards the whole of northeast Syria eventually reverting to state control.

The geopolitical bottom line does expose a serious rift within the Ankara agreement. Tehran and Moscow – not to mention Damascus – will not accept Turkish occupation of nearly a quarter of sovereign, energy-rich Syrian territory, replacing what was a de facto American occupation. Diplomats confirm Putin has repeatedly emphasized to Erdogan the imperative of Syrian territorial integrity. SANA’s Syrian news agency slammed Peace Spring as “an act of aggression.”

Which brings us to Idlib. Idlib is a poor, rural province crammed with ultra-hardcore Salafi jihadis – most linked in myriad levels with successive incarnations of Jabhat al-Nusra, or al-Qaeda in Syria. Eventually, Damascus, backed by Russian airpower, will clear what is in effect the Idlib cauldron, generating an extra wave of refugees. As much as he’s investing in his Syrian Kurdistan safe zone, what Erdogan is trying to prevent is an extra exodus of potentially 3.5 million mostly hardcore Sunnis to Turkey.

Turkish historian Cam Erimtan told me, as he argues in this essay, that it’s all about the clash between the post-Marxist “libertarian municipalism” of the Turkish-Syrian PKK/PYD/YPG/YPJ axis and the brand of Islam defended by Erdogan’s AKP party: “The heady fusion of Islamism and Turkish nationalism that has become the AKP’s hallmark and common currency in the New Turkey, results in the fact that as a social group the Kurds in Syria have now been universally identified as the enemies of Islam.” Thus, Erimtan adds, “the ‘Kurds’ have now taken the place of ‘Assad’ as providing a godless enemy that needs to be defeated next door.”

Geopolitically, the crucial point remains that Erdogan cannot afford to alienate Moscow for a series of strategic and economic reasons, ranging from the Turk Stream gas pipeline to Ankara’s interest in being an active node of the Belt & Road as well as the Eurasia Economic Union and becoming a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, all geared towards Eurasian integration.

‘Win-win’

And as Syria boils, Iraq simmers down.

Iraqi Kurdistan lives a world apart, and was not touched by the Iraqi protests, which were motivated by genuine grievances against the swamp of corrupt-to-the-core Baghdad politics. Subsequent hijacking for a specific geopolitical agenda was inevitable. The government says Iraqi security forces did not shoot at protesters. That was the work of snipers.

Gunmen in balaclavas did attack the offices of plenty of TV stations in Baghdad, destroying equipment and broadcast facilities. Additionally, Iraqi sources told me, armed groups targeted vital infrastructure, as in electricity grids and plants especially in Diwaniyah in the south. This would have plunged the whole of southern Iraq, all the way to Basra, into darkness, thus sparking more protests.

Pakistani analyst Hassan Abbas spent 12 days in Baghdad, Najaf and Karbala. He said heavily militarized police dealt with the protests, “opting for the use of force from the word go – a poor strategy.” He added: “There are 11 different law enforcement forces in Baghdad with various uniforms – coordination between them is extremely poor under normal circumstances.”

But most of all, Abbas stressed: “Many people I talked to in Karbala think this is the American response to the Iraqi tilt towards China.”

That totally fits with this comprehensive analysis.

Iraq did not follow the – illegal – Trump administration sanctions on Iran. In fact it continues to buy electricity from Iran. Baghdad finally opened the crucial Iraq-Syria border post of al-Qaem. Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi wants to buy S-400 missile systems from Russia.

He also explicitly declared Israel responsible for the bombing of five warehouses belonging to the Hashd al-Shaabi, the people mobilization units. And he not only rejected the Trump administration’s “deal of the century” between Israel and Palestine but also has been trying to mediate between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

And then there’s – what else? – China. On a state visit to Beijing on September 23, Mahdi clinched a proverbial win-win deal: plenty of oil supplies traded with investment in rebuilding infrastructure. And Iraq will be a certified Belt & Road node, with President Xi Jinping extolling a new “China-Iraq strategic partnership”. China is also looking to do post-reconstruction work in Syria to make it a key node in the New Silk Roads.

It ain’t over till the fat (Chinese) lady sings while doing deals. Meanwhile, Erdogan can always sing about sending 3.6 million refugees to Europe.

What’s happening is a quadruple win. The US performs a face saving withdrawal, which Trump can sell as avoiding a conflict with NATO alley Turkey. Turkey has the guarantee – by the Russians – that the Syrian Army will be in control of the Turkish-Syrian border. Russia prevents a war escalation and keeps the Russia-Iran-Turkey peace process alive.  And Syria will eventually regain control of its oilfields and the entire northeast.

Turkish Offensive In Northern Syria Pushed Kurds Into Hands Of Assad And Moscow. War Report

South Front

The defense of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is steadily collapsing under pressure from the Turkish Armed Forces and Turkish-backed militant groups, branded as the National Syrian Army.

Since the start of Operation Peace Spring, Turkey-led forces have captured 42 settlements from the SDF. Most of them were abandoned by Kurdish fighters after a series of artillery and air strikes by the Turkish military. The most intense clashes took place in the towns of Ras al-Ayn and Tell Abyad, and on the chunk of the M4 highway between Aywah and Sahi Ruwaydat.

Turkish forces started a storm of Ras al-Ayn in the evening of October 11. On October 12, the Turkish Defense Ministry announced that its forces got a full control of the town. On the same day, a powerful SDF counterattack forces Turkish-backed militants to withdraw to the southern part of Ras al-Ayn. On October 13, an intense fighting there continued, with the town remaining contested. By October 14, Turkey-led forces had established control of most of it.

Another area of heavy clashes was Tell Abyad. The Turkish military and the NSA advanced on the town of October 12 and captured its center on October 13. The success in the area was predetermined by previous advances of Turkey-led forces that besieged the town from the eastern and western directions.

On October 12 and 13, forward units of the NSA were working to cut off the M4 highway stretching along the Syrian-Turkish border. According to photos and videos released online, when Turkish-backed militants first reached the highway they captured and executed a number of civilians, including Hevrin Khalaf, the head of the SDF-linked political party – the Future Syria Party. The SDF tried to push Turkish-backed forces back, but failed to do so.

The shape of the current Turkish military efforts demonstrate that at the first phase of the advance Ankara seeks to capture the border area between Ras al-Ayn and Tell Abyad, and reach the M4. After this, they will likely push towards Kobani and Manbij.

The Turkish Armed Forces already deployed Leopard 2A4 battle tanks on the eastern bank of the Euphrates and floating bridge equipment near the Sajur river, north of Manbij.

According to Ankara, about 500 members of Kurdish armed groups have been neutralized since the start of the operation. At the same time, Turkish sources admit that 6 Turkish soldiers and up to 2 dozens NSA members were killed. Pro-SDF media outlets report about tens destroyed Turkish armored vehicles and dozens of surrendered NSA members. Proofs are barely provided by both sides.

785 ISIS-linked persons fled the SDF-run Ain Issa camp after SDF members had withdrawn from the area. The SDF accused Turkey for the incident and claimed that the prisoners fled thanks to help from ‘Turkish mercenaries’. Meanwhile, Ankara already declared that it’s ready to take responsibility for detention centers with ISIS members and their relatives in northeastern Syria after it takes control of them.

Washington is not going to assist the SDF in repelling the Turkish offensive despite SDF loud statements about their role in the war on ISIS and the US strategy in the region. Defense Secretary Mark Esper told CBS News on October 13 that the US is “preparing to evacuate” about 1,000 troops from northern Syria “as safely and quickly as possible”. The withdrawal of US troops is another sign that the Turkish operation against the SDF was in fact coordinated with and approved by the Trump administration.

The last chance of the SDF to keep control of their remaining areas along the Syrian-Turkish border is to get help from the Syrian Army and Russia. If this is not done anytime soon, the real SDF resistance to the Turkish advance will likely remain only in the few Kurdish-populated areas of northeastern Syria.

On October 13 evening, the SDF announced that it had reached an agreement with the Assad government, and the Syrian Army will enter a large part of its areas, including Manbij and Kobani, and help the Kurdish-led group to limit the further offensive of Turkish forces. The implementation of this agreement may become a turning point in relations between Damascus and the SDF.

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KURDISH-LED SDF SAYS IT REACHED DEAL WITH DAMASCUS. SYRIAN ARMY MARCHES TOWARDS KOBANI

 Kurdish-led SDF Says It Reached Deal With Damascus. Syrian Army Marches Towards KobaniClick to see the full-size image

KURDISH-LED SDF SAYS IT REACHED DEAL WITH DAMASCUS. SYRIAN ARMY MARCHES TOWARDS KOBANI

The self-administration of Northeastern Syria, a political wing of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), announced on October 13 evening that it had reached a deal with the Damascus government.

The deal says the Syrian Army will enter into the SDF-controlled area in order to protect the Syrian border from the Turkish military intervention (Operation Peace Spring).

According to reprots, by the morning  of October 14, Syrian Army units will enter the towns of Manbij and Kobani. Some sources say that the SAA will also enter into al-Tabqah. However, these reports still have to be confirmed.

Mutlu Civiroglu

@mutludc

Self Administration of NE Syria announces an agreement with Syrian Government to protect Syrian borders with SDF against Turkey. It will also help liberating all areas from Turkey including Afrin

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Syria’s state-run news agency SANA announced that the Syrian Army is now “moving north to confront Turkish aggression on Syrian territory”

“This movement comes to confront the ongoing Turkish aggression on towns and areas in the north of Hasaka and Raqqa provinces, where the Turkish forces committed massacres against locals, occupied some areas, and destroyed infrastructure,” SANA said.

Wladimir@vvanwilgenburg

North Press has video of Syrian army moving into Manbij. Very easy. Since Arima there was already Russian-Syrian govt centre.

Wladimir@vvanwilgenburg

North-Press reporter: Deployment of the Syrian Governmental Forces on the outskirts of Manbij city in preparation for their entry @NPA_SY

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Syrian War Report – October 11, 2019: Turkish Forces Storming Tell Abyad, Ras Al-Ayn

South

Since October 9, the Turkish Armed Forces and Turkish-backed militants have been developing a ground phase of their operation against Kurdish armed groups in northeastern Syria.

The main Turkish efforts were focused on the towns of Ras al-Ayn and Tell Abyad. Turkey-led forces captured several villages surrounding the towns and event entered Tell Abyad. Nonetheless, the situation in the area remains unstable. It is expected that the Syrian Democratic Forces, a brand used by mainstream media to describe the YPG and the YPJ, will be able to defend fortified urban areas until they are not encircled.

According to pro-Turkish sources, over 100 YPG/YPJ members were neutralized since the start of the operation. This number remains unconfirmed. Pro-Kurdish sources claim that the YPG was able to eliminate several pieces of Turkish military equipment and kill two dozens of Turkish proxies. These claims were also barely confirmed by any evidence. However, at least 17 civilians were injured in a mortar shelling that targeted the Turkish town of Ceylanpınar.

Syria’s state-run news agency SANA reported on October 10 that about 100 US troops had left northeastern Syria through the Semalka border crossing with Iraq. Taking into account that US President Donald Trump called Turkey’s operation a “bad idea”, but distanced himself from Kurdish forces because they did not help the US in World War II, it becomes more and more clear that the Turkish military action in the region is in fact coordinated with the US.

By this move, the Trump administration makes an important step to return confidence of its key ally in the eastern Mediterranean and, at the same time, delivers a blow to efforts of the Obama administration and the CIA that had contributed notable efforts in supporting the Kurdish project in northern Syria.

The possible rapprochement of the US and Turkey over the conflict in Syria will allow Washington to strengthen its campaign to limit influence of Iran and the Assad government in the war-torn country, as well as open additional opportunities for a revanche of the US military industrial complex on the Turkish market. This is a logical step in the framework of the national-oriented policy provided by the Trump administration.

The key question is how deep into Syria the Turkish military is planning to expand its Operation Peace Spring. Currently, pro-Turkish sources speculate about the possible creation of a 30km-deep corridor. If the US allows Turkey and Turkey appears to be capable of reaching this goal, Anakra will boost its role in the conflict even further and gain a wide range of options to influence its possible settlement. In this event, the Assad government will lost all the remaining chances to restore the territorial integrity and the Trump administration will get additional leverages of pressure on Iran, the Assad government and Russia in Syria.

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