Blinken paves the way for a return to the nuclear deal in compliance with Iran’s terms بلينكين يمهّد للعودة إلى الاتفاق النووي رضوخاً لشروط إيران

**English Machine translation Please scroll down for the Arabic original version **

Blinken paves the way for a return to the nuclear deal in compliance with Iran’s terms

Nasser Kandil

– In the context of a radio interview with former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, she said, “We have come a long way towards preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, and all of this was subsequently abandoned by the Trump administration. Current U.S. Secretary of State Tony Blinken responded to Clinton’s question about his expectations of the outcome of Iran’s absence from the 5+1 meeting, with the participation of Russia and China, by saying that Iran “is speeding up towards the day when it will have the ability to produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon in a very short time», considering that when the agreement was reached in 2015, Iran was tending to make this period a mere weeks. Blinken warned that allowing this to happen, and Iran’s acquiring a nuclear weapon, or being on the threshold of possessing a nuclear weapon, “enables it to act with greater impunity,” noting that taking military action against it would have “different consequences,” concluding that “the best answer is” We reached the agreement “that” put the nuclear program in a box, cut its tracks to be able to produce the materials needed to make a nuclear weapon, “and pushed the period called” the time of penetration to more than one year. “

– Blinken said that because of the agreement «we had very strong sanctions » through the use of the Snapback mechanism, to automatically reimpose them if Iran violates the agreement, adding that “after we got out of the deal, Iran felt good,” as if saying: “We can move forward; We no longer comply with the commitments we made. ” And Blinken went on to say,“ And now she returns to that point, where she can produce fissile material for a very powerful weapon in a short time. He stressed that «we have an interest in returning it to the box, then see if we can actually build something longer and stronger in terms of the duration of the agreement, as well as deal with some of the other actions that Iran is taking, because we have a real problem with ballistic missiles and what they are doing in their vicinity».

– In practice, Blinken rearranged President Joe Biden’s administration vision papers regarding the Iranian nuclear file, from the stage on which Iran should start the first step, to the stage we started the first step with the indirect release of Iranian deposits of more than ten billion dollars in South Korea and Iraq, in exchange for Iran attending a joint session Within the 5 + 1 platform, and then here he is rearranging the cards again with Iran’s refusal of less than an American declaration to retract the sanctions as a condition for Iran’s retreat from implementing its obligations stipulated in the agreement. He withdraws from the table the issues of Iranian missiles and Iran’s regional role to the post-return phase. Regarding the nuclear agreement, and the implementation of its obligations from both sides, that is, the lifting of sanctions in return for Iran’s return to its obligations, Blinken’s equation is clear, that Iran is comfortable not returning and approaching with a missile speed that it has sufficient capabilities to produce a nuclear weapon, and that Washington has an interest in blocking this path, and that the abolition of sanctions is a reasonable cost to achieve this goal, because the alternative is to confront a situation that “enables it to act with impunity.” “Knowing that carrying out military action against it will have various consequences,” concluding that “the best answer we came to was the agreement” that “put the nuclear program in a box and cut its paths to be able to produce the materials they need to build a nuclear weapon, and pay the nominal period at the time of penetration.” To more than one year ».

– The Biden administration in Blinkin’s tongue goes back to what the Barack Obama administration reached when Biden was vice president, betting on more time to bring Iran to an agreement that includes the missile file and the regional situation will mean giving Iran more time to acquire the capabilities to produce a nuclear weapon. The bet that something has changed as a result of the sanctions imposed by the administration of former President Donald Trump, is disappointing, as Iran appears more comfortable in its steps outside the agreement than it was in the days of previous negotiations, so priority is given to returning to the agreement and then it is possible to know what should be done to discuss the rest, “We have an interest in returning that to a box, and then seeing if we can actually build something longer and stronger in terms of the duration of the agreement, as well as deal with some other measures that Iran is taking, because we have a real problem with ballistic missiles and what they are doing in their vicinity.”

بلينكين يمهّد للعودة إلى الاتفاق النووي رضوخاً لشروط إيران

ناصر قنديل

في سياق حوار إذاعيّ مع وزيرة الخارجية السابقة هيلاري كلينتون قالت فيه «قطعنا شوطاً طويلاً نحو منع إيران من الحصول على سلاح نووي، وكل ذلك جرى التخلي بعد ذلك عنه من قبل إدارة ترامب. أجاب وزير الخارجية الأميركية الحالي توني بلينكين على سؤال كلينتون حول توقعاته لنتائج غياب إيران عن الاجتماع الذي وافقت عليه واشنطن ضمن صيغة الـ 5+1، بمشاركة روسيا والصين، بالقول بأن إيران «تسرع نحو اليوم الذي سيكون لديها فيه القدرة على إنتاج ما يكفي من المواد الانشطارية لسلاح نووي في وقت قصير جداً»، معتبراً أنه عند التوصل إلى الاتفاق عام 2015، كانت إيران تتجه إلى جعل ​​هذه المدة مجرد أسابيع. ونبّه بلينكن إلى أن السماح بحدوث ذلك، وامتلاك إيران سلاحاً نووياً، أو أن تكون على عتبة امتلاك سلاح نووي «يمكنها من التصرف مع إفلات أكبر من العقاب»، علماً بأن القيام بعمل عسكري ضدها ستكون له «عواقب مختلفة»، مستنتجاً أن «أفضل إجابة توصلنا إليها كانت الاتفاق» الذي «وضع البرنامج النووي في صندوق، وقطع مساراته لتكون قادرة على إنتاج المواد التي تحتاج إليها لصنع سلاح نووي»، ودفع المدة المسماة «وقت الاختراق إلى أكثر من عام واحد».

قال بلينكن إنه بسبب الاتفاق «كانت لدينا عقوبات قويّة للغاية»، عبر استخدام آلية «سناب باك»، لإعادة فرضها بصورة تلقائية إذا انتهكت إيران الاتفاقية، مضيفاً أن «الأهم من ذلك هو نظام المراقبة والتفتيش الأكثر تدخلاً الذي نمتلكه على الإطلاق لأي اتفاق للحدّ من الأسلحة». وقال إنه «بعد خروجنا من الصفقة، شعرت إيران بحال جيدة»، كأنما تقول: «يمكننا المضي قدماً؛ لم نعد نمتثل للالتزامات التي تعهدنا بها»، واستطرد بلينكن: «وها هي الآن تعود إلى تلك النقطة، حيث يمكن أن تنتج مواد انشطارية لسلاح في غاية القوة في وقت قصير»، وشدّد على أن «لدينا مصلحة في إعادة ذلك إلى صندوق، ثم معرفة ما إذا كان بإمكاننا بالفعل بناء شيء أطول وأقوى من حيث مدة الاتفاق، وكذلك التعامل مع بعض الإجراءات الأخرى التي تتخذها إيران، لأن لدينا مشكلة حقيقية مع الصواريخ الباليستية وما تقوم به في جوارها».

عملياً أعاد بلينكين ترتيب أوراق رؤية إدارة الرئيس جو بايدن تجاه الملف النووي الإيراني، من مرحلة على إيران أن تبدأ الخطوة الأولى، إلى مرحلة بدأنا الخطوة الأولى بالإفراج غير المباشر عن ودائع إيرانية تزيد عن عشرة مليارات دولار في كوريا الجنوبية والعراق، مقابل حضور إيران لجلسة مشتركة ضمن منصة الـ 5+1، ثم ها هو يعيد ترتيب الأوراق مجدداً مع رفض إيران لما هو أقل من إعلان أميركي بالتراجع عن العقوبات كشرط لتراجع إيران عن تنفيذ موجباتها التي نص عليها الاتفاق، فيسحب عن الطاولة قضيتي الصواريخ الإيرانية والدور الإقليمي لإيران إلى مرحلة تعقب العودة إلى الاتفاق النووي، وتنفيذ موجباته من الفريقين، أي رفع العقوبات مقابل عودة إيران الى التزاماتها. ومعادلة بلينكين واضحة، أن إيران مرتاحة لعدم العودة والاقتراب بسرعة صاروخية من امتلاك مقدرات كافية لإنتاج سلاح نووي، وأن واشنطن صاحبة مصلحة بقطع الطريق على هذا المسار، وأن إلغاء العقوبات كلفة معقولة لتحقيق هذا الهدف، لأن البديل هو مواجهة وضع «يمكنها من التصرف مع إفلات أكبر من العقاب»، مضيفاً، «علماً بأن القيام بعمل عسكري ضدها ستكون له عواقب مختلفة»، مستنتجاً أن «أفضل إجابة توصلنا إليها كانت الاتفاق» الذي «وضع البرنامج النووي في صندوق، وقطع مساراته لتكون قادرة على إنتاج المواد التي تحتاج إليها لصنع سلاح نووي، ودفع المدة المسمّاة وقت الاختراق إلى أكثر من عام واحد».

تعود إدارة بايدن بلسان بلينكين الى ما توصلت اليه إدارة باراك أوباما يوم كان بايدن نائباً للرئيس، وهو أن الرهان على مزيد من الوقت لجلب إيران إلى اتفاق يتضمن ملف الصواريخ والوضع الإقليمي، سيعني منح إيران المزيد من الوقت لامتلاك مقدرات إنتاج سلاح نووي، وأن الرهان على أن ثمّة ما تغير بفعل العقوبات التي فرضتها إدارة الرئيس السابق دونالد ترامب، يكشف عقماً وخيبة، فإيران تظهر أكثر راحة في خطواتها خارج الاتفاق مما كانت عليه أيام المفاوضات السابقة، لذلك يعطي الأولوية للعودة إلى الاتفاق وبعدها يمكن معرفة ما يجب فعله لبحث الباقي، بقوله، «لدينا مصلحة في إعادة ذلك إلى صندوق، ثم معرفة ما إذا كان بإمكاننا بالفعل بناء شيء أطول وأقوى من حيث مدة الاتفاق، وكذلك التعامل مع بعض الإجراءات الأخرى التي تتخذها إيران، لأن لدينا مشكلة حقيقية مع الصواريخ الباليستية وما تقوم به في جوارها».

The start of the return to nuclear deal train انطلاق قطار العودة للاتفاق النوويّ

**English Machine translation Please scroll down for the Arabic original version **

The start of the return to nuclear deal train

Nasser Kandil

– The speed with which the administration of US President Joe Biden deals with the Iranian nuclear file does not apply to what is being fancied and promoted by those who linked their fate in the region with the illusion of American supremacy and Iran’s weakness, who said that months will pass before Washington considers the Iranian nuclear file, within a week of Biden’s inauguration, he appointing Robert Maley, known for his positions calling for returning to the agreement without delay, as special envoy on Iran, for returning to the agreement without delay and discussing issues of disagreement under the umbrella of the agreement, to the point of the choice that the President adheres to.

– A month before Biden entered the White House, two files were moving in parallel, the file of the restoration of US-European relations being the entrance to the understanding on the road-map to return to the nuclear understanding with Iran, which was translated by a meeting, the first of its kind in five years, that includes the US Secretary of State and foreign ministers. France, Germany and Britain, during which Washington announced its readiness to attend a meeting within the framework of the 5 + 1 formula, with the presence and participation of Iran. US President Joe Biden expressed to the Munich Security Conference his readiness to engage in a formula that would open the way for a return to the nuclear agreement with Iran, with reference to the files of the dispute with Iran, and the intention to solve it by negotiating and annexing it to the agreement, which of course is rejected by Iran. In parallel, the second file, which is the U.S. pressure on Saudi Arabia from the gate of stopping arms deals under the slogan of stopping the war on Yemen, and declassifying Ansar Allah from the lists of terrorism, to release the investigations related to the killing of journalist Jamal Al-Khashoggi and the role revealed by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

– Washington began the preparations for the return to the agreement, with President Biden’s contact with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and putting him in the form of the American decision, as reported by Reuters, and Washington took decisions in the size of legitimising the return to the agreement and withdrawing the US legal cover for any sanctions that were imposed on the third parties after the American withdrawal from the agreement in the era of former President Donald Trump, by withdrawing the request submitted by the Trump administration to the UN Security Council to re-impose the UN sanctions on Iran that were lifted in accordance with the UN resolution that approved the agreement, and the withdrawal book that recognises the illegality of the previous US request, and in parallel it cancelled Washington restrictions that the Trump administration had imposed on Iranian diplomats in New York.

– Iran welcomed Washington’s steps, but it was not satisfied that it did not solve the issue of sanctions, which depends on Iran’s retreat from the measures it has taken to reduce its obligations stipulated in the agreement, and the most important measures that it will take within days unless Washington offers convincing measures for Iran to back down from the sanctions. In the days leading up to February 23, there are signs that Tehran is asking Europe to take steps that translate its commitment to the Iran agreement, and Washington’s withdrawal of an earlier request to return to UN sanctions on Iran and prove the illegality of the request, putting at the forefront the hypothesis that Europe will activate a mechanism Financial trading with Iran called  Anstex, which Europe was unable to operate in the time of the Trump administration and can now be activated and proven to be useful, with billions of dollars belonging to Iran held in European banks, and Iranian deals with European companies frozen pending payment mechanism.

– President Biden has repeated more than once the phrase, that America has returned, boasting that this is an expression of America’s diplomatic strength, meaning that America has returned to its glory days and its ability to determine the paths of the world, and which is being said that America has only returned to the nuclear agreement, and that the way back is not according to the whims and desires of its president, who discovers every day the limitations of his options and the difficulty of acting as dictated by the balance of power that is no longer in favour of his country in the world, in parallel with preserving face, claiming supremacy, the ability to draw paths, and demonstrating retreat in the form of dictation. Time has changed, the equations have changed, the options are limited, and the state of denial will not help, and swallowing the bitter cup one time, is less bitter.

انطلاق قطار العودة للاتفاق النوويّ

ناصر قنديل

لا تنطبق السرعة التي تتعامل من خلالها إدارة الرئيس الأميركي جو بايدن مع الملف النووي الإيراني مع ما يتوهّمه ويروّج له الذين ربطوا مصيرهم في المنطقة بوهم التفوّق الأميركي وضعف إيران، والذين قالوا إن شهوراً ستمرّ قبل أن تنظر واشنطن في الملف النووي الإيراني، فبدأ تعيين روبرت مالي مبعوثاً خاصاً حول إيران، خلال أسبوع من تسلّم الرئيس بايدن، وأشارت شخصية هذا المبعوث المعروفة بمواقفها الداعية للعودة إلى الاتفاق من دون إبطاء ومناقشة قضايا الخلاف تحت مظلة الاتفاق، إلى وجهة الخيار الذي يلتزمه الرئيس الأميركي.

قبل أن ينقضي شهر على دخول بايدن الى البيت الأبيض، كان ملفان يتحرّكان بالتوازي، ملف ترميم العلاقات الأميركية الأوروبية من مدخل التفاهم حول خريطة طريق العودة الى التفاهم النووي مع إيران، الذي ترجمه اجتماع هو الأول من نوعه منذ خمس سنوات يضمّ وزير خارجية أميركا ووزراء خارجية فرنسا وألمانيا وبريطانيا، أعلنت خلاله واشنطن استعدادها لحضور اجتماع ضمن إطار صيغة الـ 5+1، بحضور ومشاركة إيران، وتوجه موقف الرئيس الأميركي جو بايدن أمام مؤتمر ميونيخ للأمن بالاستعداد للانخراط في صيغة تفتح الطريق للعودة إلى الاتفاق النووي مع إيران، تحت سقف دائم للإشارة لملفات الخلاف مع إيران، ونيّة حلها بالتفاوض وضمها للاتفاق، وهو طبعاً ما ترفضه إيران. وبالتوازي كان يتحرك الملف الثاني وهو الضغط الأميركي على السعودية من بوابة وقف صفقات السلاح تحت شعار وقف الحرب على اليمن، وإلغاء تصنيف أنصار الله عن لوائح الإرهاب، وصولاً للإفراج عن التحقيقات الخاصة بقتل الصحافي جمال الخاشقجي وما تكشفه من دور لولي العهد السعودي محمد بن سلمان.

بدأت واشنطن إجراءات التمهيد للعودة إلى الاتفاق، باتصال أجراه الرئيس بايدن برئيس حكومة الاحتلال بنيامين نتنياهو ووضعه في صورة القرار الأميركي كما أوردت وكالة رويتر، واتخذت واشنطن قرارات بحجم شرعنة العودة للاتفاق وسحب الغطاء الشرعي أميركياً عن أية عقوبات نجمت على الأطراف الثالثين بعد الانسحاب الأميركي من الاتفاق في عهد الرئيس السابق دونالد ترامب، وذلك من خلال سحب الطلب الذي قدّمته إدارة ترامب إلى مجلس الأمن الدولي لإعادة فرض العقوبات الأمميّة على إيران التي رفعت بموجب القرار الأمميّ الذي صادق على الاتفاق، وما في كتاب السحب من اعتراف بعدم شرعية الطلب الأميركي السابق، وبالتوازي ألغت واشنطن تقييدات كانت إدارة ترامب قد فرضتها على الدبلوماسيين الإيرانيين في نيويورك.

إيران رحبت بخطوات واشنطن، لكنها لم تكتف بها باعتبارها لا تحل قضية العقوبات التي يتوقف على رفعها تراجع إيران عن الإجراءات التي اتخذتها بتخفيض التزاماتها التي نص عليها الاتفاق، والأهم الإجراءات التي ستتخذها خلال أيام ما لم تُقدم واشنطن على إجراءات مقنعة لإيران بالتراجع عن العقوبات. وفي الأيام الفاصلة عن موعد 23 شباط ستشهد خطوات، برزت مؤشرات على وجهتها بمطالبة طهران لأوروبا باتخاذ خطوات تترجم التزامها بالاتفاق مع إيران، وبسحب واشنطن لطلب سابق بالعودة للعقوبات الأممية على إيران وإثبات عدم شرعية الطلب، ما يضع في الواجهة فرضية إقدام أوروبا على تفعيل آلية المتاجرة المالية مع إيران المسمّاة أنستكس، والتي عجزت أوروبا عن العمل بها في زمن إدارة ترامب وبات بإمكانها تفعيلها وإثبات جدواها، مع مليارات الدولارات العائدة لإيران والمحجوزة في المصارف الأوروبية، والصفقات الإيرانية مع شركات أوروبية والمجمّدة بانتظار آلية التسديد.

كرر الرئيس بايدن في أكثر من مرة عبارة، إن أميركا عادت، متباهياً بأن ذلك تعبير عن القوة الدبلوماسيّة لأميركا، قاصداً أن أميركا عادت الى أيام عزها وقدرتها على تقرير مسارات العالم، والذي يجري يقول إن أميركا عادت فقط إلى الاتفاق النووي، وإن طريق العودة ليس على هواها ومقاس رئيسها، الذي يكتشف كل يوم محدودية خياراته وصعوبة التصرّف بما تمليه موازين القوة التي لم تعد لصالح دولته في العالم، بالتوازي مع حفظ ماء الوجه وادعاء التفوق والقدرة على رسم المسارات، وتظهير التراجع بصورة الإملاء من فوق. فالزمن تغير والمعادلات تغيّرت، والخيارات محدودة، وحال الإنكار لن تنفع، فتجرّع الكأس المرة دفعة واحدة أقل مرارة.

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Joe Biden Adopts a Trump Approach to Iran

Lawrence Davidson is professor of history emeritus at West Chester University in Pennsylvania. He has been publishing his analyses of topics in U.S. domestic and foreign policy, international and humanitarian law and Israel/Zionist practices and policies since 2010.

An Analysis () by Lawrence Davidson

9 February 2021

Part I—Joe Biden, the Good Stuff

All right! Let’s hear it for Joe Biden! Our new president is leading us in the direction of domestic sanity, and there are even hints of progressive potential in his evolving agenda. Under his leadership, we might soon master the Covid-19 plague and dig ourselves out of our near-depression economic straits. This is terrific!

Some good news when it comes to foreign policy as well. You’ll remember that in Trump’s determination to “make “American great again” (MAGA), the former president decided that international organizations and cooperation were impediments to national greatness. Thus, he systematically withdrew from a number of alignments and also scorned international law. This approach appears to have been part of a MAGA scheme to subvert international order. Its nihilistic undertones were highlighted by the creepy leaders who seemed to warm Trump’s heart. He found men such as the Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, along with a long list of dictators ranging from Rodrigo Duterte in Philippines to Abdel Fattah el-Sisi inEgypt, to be really congenial. There was also Trump’s warm admiration for the Russian leader Vladimir Putin. 

President Biden has saved us from this sort of delinquency. He is now operating under new and saner marching orders: “diplomacy is back” and multilateralism is in. The U.S. has recommitted to the international effort to slow down global warming and has rejoined the World Health Organization. Biden has ended all participation in the immoral Yemen civil war and, so it is reported, told the Russians to keep their invasive cyber-fingers to themselves. 

At this point you might have the urge to celebrate what appears to be a full 180-degree turn from Donald Trump’s demented worldview. But hold on, that is not quite the case. Sadly, but perhaps not surprisingly, it appears that a residual lawlessness can be found in at least one the Biden’s foreign policies. We can recognize it in the game he is playing with Iran. 

Part II—Scuttling the JCPOA

Recall that in 2015 then-President Obama invested a lot of political capital, not to mention putting forth a remarkable display of good sense, in helping to negotiate a multilateral agreement with Iran. This is known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and it was multilateral because it included not just the U.S. and Iran but also the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council: the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, France, and China as well as Germany (collectively referred to as the P5+1). Basically, the agreement stated that, under a regime of international monitoring, Iran would forgo any development of nuclear weapons and convert its nuclear facilities to peacetime pursuits. In exchange, the P5+1 would lift all nuclear-related economic sanctions, freeing up tens of billions of dollars in oil revenue and the release of frozen assets. It was a rare display of effective diplomacy and it worked—until Obama’s successor, Donald Trump, unilaterally scuttled the deal. 

Trump withdrew from the agreement in early May 2018. By January 2020 he had increased the number of Iran-related sanctions to over one thousand. In 2019, Trump was suggesting that if Iran wanted to enter into new negotiations with the U.S., he would consider lifting some of the sanctions. Iran refused to begin the negotiating process over again with Trump. On 15 January 2021, five days before leaving office, Trump added new sanctions. Why did he display such maliciousness? Besides a bizarre hatred for anything Obama had achieved, and the disdain for international cooperation which supposedly stood in the way of his MAGA fantasies, there are other factors. Trump is a truly amoral schemer (we might think of him as a modern-day lawless Borgia). And so he almost naturally fell in with amoral regimes with active domestic lobbies in the U.S. (such as Saudi Arabia and Israel), as well as a “pay to play” approach for the votes and donations of Americans who have a grudge against or fear of Iran. Here we can name not only the Zionists, but also the wealthy Iranians who took refuge in the U.S. after Iran’s 1979 revolution. Many of these are Iranian monarchists who want to see regime change in Iran through the return of a shah (king).

Under the circumstances, the Iranian government reaction has been understandable: they see themselves as the aggrieved party. They had negotiated the JCPOA in good faith. They had met the conditions of the agreement to the satisfaction of international monitors. The other side had failed to respond as promised. Not only had the U.S. broke the agreement without cause, but it had then blackmailed its European allies into breaking their commitments under the agreement. This was done by the Trump administration declaring that any party that broke Washington’s sanctions against Iran would themselves be sanctioned.

After a year or so, Iran, noting that it was the only party paying attention to the deal and that the sanctions still applied, began to slowly back away from the nuclear agreement’s provisions. However, it was not until January 2020 that the Iranians announced they would no longer limit their number of centrifuges and thus their capacity to enrich uranium. Even then it was not the obscene number of American sanctions or the gross failure of the Europeans to abide by their promises that finally “broke the camel’s back.” It was Trump’s ordering of the murder of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad on 3 January 2020—essentially an act of war, and certainly one in violation of international law.

Part III—Joe Biden, the Bad Stuff

Now Trump is gone and we have Joe Biden, who, by the way, has not done the right thing and affirmed that his administration would rejoin the Iran nuclear deal. Instead he declared that “I will offer Tehran a credible path back to diplomacy. If Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations” (my emphasis). Later he said that the subsequent negotiations would involve the Islamic Republic’s “violations of human rights and Iran’s role in the regional conflicts.” On its face, this is not an invitation to return to a stabilizing status quo ante, or even a supposed “credible path back to diplomacy.” It is a take-it-or-leave-it demand. This position is remarkably similar to that of Trump posturing for new negotiations back in 2019. And since, as of 7 February 2021, Biden has refused to lift sanctions on Iran—has refused to cease driving that country into poverty—these are no longer Trump’s sanctions. Biden now owns this horror show. Here are some of Biden’s fatal steps.

It was about nine days into the new administration that Biden’s officials began to reference foreign policy and Iran. First appeared Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, who told the U.S. Institute of Peace that “a critical early priority has to be to deal with what is an escalating nuclear crisis as they [Iran] move closer and closer to having enough fissile material for a weapon.” One wonders if Sullivan got his start in advertising, because his description is a purposeful mischaracterization of the situation. The descriptor “escalating nuclear crisis” is a woeful exaggeration. If there is any “crisis” at all, it is because Washington has failed to meet its commitments under the 2015 agreement. The Iranians have repeatedly made it clear that they have no interest in nuclear weapons. And, one can imagine the only thing that could change their mind is an existential outside threat. To date, the only ones that pose such threats are allies of the U.S.: Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Then stepped up Tony Blinken, Biden’s new secretary of state, to continue the new administration’s maneuvers. To wit, Blinken stated “Tehran must resume complying with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal before Washington would do so.” This sort of statement is a rather childish, you-go-first challenge. Blinken then explained that if Iran returns to the deal, Washington would seek to build what Blinken called a “longer and stronger agreement” that would deal with other “deeply problematic” issues. He did not name these, but Biden for his part has drawn attention to Iran’s development of ballistic missiles and its support for proxy forces in countries such as Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.

It took the Iranians no time at all to recognize this gambit for what it is, an effort to enlarge restrictions on Iranian military capacity beyond the scope of the original 2015 agreement. Almost immediately, Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, responded that the U.S. position was not practical and will not happen and then added in an op-ed in Foreign Affairs,“once a party leaves an agreement, then that party has no authority demanding others’ compliance to that agreement.”

The Iranians did come back with a more doable proposal to deal with the “who goes first” dilemma. Teheran proposed a timed, mutual U.S. and Iranian return to the original agreement. In an interview with CNN, the Iranian foreign minister said “both countries should synchronize their JCPOA-related moves under the supervision of the European Union”—in other words, achieve the goal with a step-by-step coordinated process. The Biden administration said no to Zarif’s offer, and sane minds, noting the rejection, could hear eerie Trump-like snickering in the surrounding ether. 

Part IV—Conclusion

We have already asked why Trump decided to act in such a malicious manner toward Iran. Now we can ask why Joe Biden has decided to mimic his predecessor and continue a callous, hard-line approach to that same country. As it turns out, the answer is not all that different. Biden is subject to the same lobby pressure from groups to which he has a demonstrated sympathy. Among these are some of the well known suspects mentioned above, but first and foremost are Israel and its Zionist supporters (a rundown of these can be found in a full-page ad in the 5 February 2021 New York Times). 

We can also add one other grouping to this list—various civil rights organizations who would use the moment to pressure Teheran to increase the level of civil liberties allowed in the country. However, as Behrooz Ghamari Tabriz, writing in  Counterpunch notes, “It is a hard sell for those who are genuinely concerned with the question of human rights to ask the American government to be the agent of that change. So long as our government supports the region’s most oppressive regimes, it is hard to imagine that it has any moral authority or political capital to spend on issues of human rights in Iran.”

It is hard to know what exactly is going on inside Joe Biden’s head on this issue. We can assume that it is nothing really analytical. His administration’s actions have, so far, run counter to the other precedents he is laying down in the areas of international cooperation and leadership. They also go against logic. One can imagine no better way to move the Iranians toward nuclear weapons capability than the policies now being pursued. Until Biden acts, in terms of Iran, in the interests of achievable nuclear restraint and stability, that is in the real interests of the country he leads, rather than this or that interest group, he will carry around the residual chains of Donald Trump’s miserable legacy. 

Iran-America: A Nuclear File or Beyond That? إيران – أميركا: ملف نوويّ أم أبعد من ذلك؟

**English Machine translation Please scroll down for the Arabic original version **

Iran-America: A Nuclear File or Beyond That?

Brigadier General Dr. Amin MohammedHatit*

On the 42nd anniversary of its victory, and at a time when the Islamic Revolution in Iran boasted of its distinct and multi-heading achievements, including strategic, political, scientific, economic, and military, etc., it faces important challenges that are not the issue of the economic war waged against it or the blockade and sanctions related to the Iranian nuclear file and the international agreement around it, at least.

Iran has chosen, since the success of its revolution and its orientation to build a truly independent state, the state enjoying its sovereign rights and investing its wealth outside the major blocs, protected by self and allied power.

On the other hand, the West viewed the Iranian independence approach as a departure from the “international order” imposed on the world after the Second World War, which is based on the idea of ​​”ruling the victors’ club in that war” controlling the fate and course of the world and preventing new members from entering this club except through one of the two powers.

The contrast between Iran, and the colonial system system stems from a fundamental idea, namely, Iran’s quest for a strong independent state to exercise its sovereign rights, and the rejection of the club of victors in the second war and because. Iran rejected dependency and maintained its independence and rights and extended the hand to those who were able to help who were abused in the region and the world, Iran was also attacked by a destructive war for 8 years, followed and is still by escalating and brutal manner economic war and a continuous blockade to the extent that it affects the people in most of their rights up to Food and medicine.

The economic war “sanctions” is not the result of Iran’s entry into the nuclear field and its success in making an advanced centrifugal system or enriching uranium by 20% or its ability to enrich with higher rates. All these titles and details are pretexts begged to justify the Western aggression against Iran. The real reason for the Western aggression against Iran lies in Iran’s endeavour to build a strong and independent self and its readiness to support the oppressed, especially the Palestinian people whose homeland was robbed by the Zionist entity, and therefore the policy of the West in the face of Iran is to deprive Iran of its power and resources, which can later undermine its independence and prevent it from helping those who want to return to their homeland in Palestine.

Iran has realised from the start the reality of the West’s stances towards it, its goals and strategies adopted against it, and decided to defend itself, its principles and its people and move forward to achieve its goals: independence, the exercise of all rights, building the protecting power, and adopted a defensive strategy of “long breath”, “strategic patience”, “courage in the situation” without provocation or an un-calculated challenge, but a kind of “constructive ambiguity” that does not provide the adversary with an excuse or attack.

In this environment, Iran entered the nuclear field and passed the threshold of possession of technology, announcing its attempt to use this technology for peaceful civilian and humanitarian purposes, but the West found in the subject a door and a new pretext to do more blockade measures and economic war and impose what he calls “sanctions” to tame Iran, while waving military action to destroy Iranian infrastructure not only in the nuclear field but in every area can be destroyed to prevent Iran from developing and advancing.

But Iran, in its reality and alliances, has surprised the adversary and the enemy, as it has with characteristic intelligence that it has the military power to be able to defend itself as reliably and to respond punitively and retaliatory to the aggressor, whose bases, positions and strategic positions are at the reach of Iran and under the influence of the missile system are legitimate targets for the defensive response. Iran had succeeded in preparing itself and announcing it even before it revealed its level of nuclear status.

This reality prevented the enemy Iran from committing any stupidity Israel did on the day its planes destroyed the Iraqi Tammuz reactor, and the matter passed as if it had not happened.

The agreement that led to the 5+1 negotiations with Iran on its nuclear file, which was approved by the Security Council and converted into a legitimate UN document, was not the fruit of the morals and humanity of the 5 + 1 group and its desire to solve the issue peacefully, but rather the inability of that group to resort to military force to prevent Iran from pursuing its nuclear project. That’s why the agreement on the nuclear file was a way out for all. Iran has reserved its right to follow the nuclear path within restrictions that affirm its peaceful and civilian nature and dismantle a package of sanctions imposed on it in an malicious and criminal form, and the other side affirms “a right that it claims and sees as a right Acquired »by preventing anyone else from entering the military nuclear club.

But America, working to prevent Iran from independence, strength, and supporting the oppressed, turned against the agreement and carried out the strangest behaviour that anyone could imagine. America disavows everything it has committed the sanctions remained and even tightened, Iran smartly responded, by gradually retreating from its commitments, accompanied by the demonstration of its defensive military power capable of self-defence, presence and interests.

And it appeared that regardless of who lives in the White House, Trump or Biden, the policy of the Iranian and American parties has become clear, Iran wants to exercise a right, and America wants to blackmail and prevent Iran from exercising its rights, regardless of the titles of those rights, Who will be the predominant?

Mr. Ali Khamenei answered very clearly to this question, showing that the world has entered the “post-American phase” and the rational person must explain and realise that the pioneer of persuasive patience in the world is not ready to retreat and concede to a force that has entered a phase of decline. The American empire, as we said in a previous article, is preparing for its demise and someone who strengthens and tightens his grip on the sources of power wins, and if it takes some pain while awaiting the greatest victory. Biden must know that Iran believes and trusts that it is ultimately the victor, and he should not waste time returning to the nuclear agreement because delaying will not be in his interest, and he knows that there is no solution except through this agreement. Will the media debates today be a show of strength and preparation for negotiations for America’s return to a file that Biden claims is his priority?

It is a few weeks and the answer comes?

*University professor – strategic expert.

إيران – أميركا: ملف نوويّ أم أبعد من ذلك؟

 العميد د. أمين محمد حطيط*

في الذكرى الـ 42 لانتصارها وفي الوقت الذي تفاخر فيه الثورة الإسلامية في إيران بإنجازاتها المميّزة والمتعدّدة العناوين من استراتيجية وسياسية وعلمية واقتصادية وعسكرية إلخ… فإنها تواجه تحديات هامة ليست مسألة الحرب الاقتصادية التي تشنّ عليها أو الحصار والعقوبات المرتبطة بالملف النووي الإيراني والاتفاق الدولي حولها أقلها.

لقد اختارت إيران منذ نجاح ثورتها وتوجّهها الى بناء الدولة المستقلة فعلياً، الدولة المتمتعة بحقوقها السياديّة واستثمار ثرواتها، اختارت العمل في بناء الذات وحشد الطاقات وعقد التحالفات التي تمكّنها من بناء القوة التي تمكنها من ممارسة استقلالها الحقيقيّ العمليّ بعيداً عن الاستقلال الشكليّ النظريّ الذي تعيشه معظم دول العالم خارج التكتلات الكبرى، وبالتالي كانت استراتيجيّة إيران قائمة بشكل رئيسيّ على فكرة الاستقلال الذي تحميه القوة الذاتية والتحالفية وتتمتع بالثروة وممارسة الحقوق السيادية.

وفي المقابل نظر الغرب الى النهج الاستقلالي الإيراني بأنه خروج عن «النظام الدولي» المفروض على العالم بعد الحرب العالمية الثانية والذي يقوم على فكرة «تحكم نادي المنتصرين في تلك الحرب» تحكّمه بمصير ومسار العالم ومنع دخول أعضاء جدد الى هذا النادي إلا من باب إحدى القوّتين العظميين وبعد أن تؤدّى مراسم الطاعة وتعتنق التبعية عقيدة في السلوك.

فالتباين بين إيران الثورة – الدولة المستقلة ومنظومة الغرب الاستعماري ناشئ من فكرة أساسية، هي سعي إيران لإقامة الدولة المستقلة القوية الممارسة حقوقها السيادية، ورفض نادي المنتصرين في الحرب الثانية لفكرة وجود قوة في العالم خارج سيطرته بعيداً عن قراره، ولهذا… ولأنّ إيران رفضت التبعية وتمسّكت باستقلالها وبحقوقها ومدّت اليد لمن استطاعت ان تساعده من المظلومين المعتدى عليهم في المنطقة والعالم، لأنها كذلك فقد اعتُدي عليها بحرب تدميرية لمدة 8 سنوات، ثم أتبعت ولا تزال عرضة لحرب اقتصادية وحصار مستمرّ يمارس بشكل تصاعدي وحشي الى حدّ أنه يطال الشعب في معظم حقوقه وصولاً الى الغذاء والدواء.

إنّ الحرب والحصار الاقتصادي المنفذ بما تسمّيه أميركا «عقوبات»، ليس وليد الساعة وليس نتيجة دخول إيران المجال النوويّ ونجاحها في صنع منظومة الطرد المركزي المتقدّمة او تخصيب اليورانيوم بنسبة 20% او قدرتها على التخصيب بنسب أعلى، انّ كلّ هذه العناوين والتفاصيل هي ذرائع تتوسّلها القوى الاستعارية لتبرّر حربها وحصارها لإيران، اما السبب الحقيقي للعدوان الغربي على إيران – الثورة الإسلامية فإنه يكمن في سعي إيران الى بناء الذات القوية المستقلة واستعدادها او سلوكها في نصرة المظلومين وعلى رأسهم الشعب الفلسطيني الذي سُلب وطنه على يد الكيان الصهيوني، ولذلك فإنّ سياسة الغرب تقوم في مواجهة إيران على حرمانها من القوة ومصادرها، ما يمكن لاحقاً من نسف استقلالها وإعادتها الى ربقة التبعية للغرب الاستعماري كما يحول بينها وبين مساعدة من يريد العودة الى وطنه في فلسطين.

لقد أدركت إيران منذ البدء حقيقة مواقف الغرب حيالها وأهدافه واستراتيجياته المعتمدة ضدّها، وقرّرت الدفاع عن نفسها وعن مبادئها وعن شعبها والسير قدُماً لتحقيق الأهداف التي رمت اليها الثورة الإسلامية: الاستقلال، ممارسة الحقوق كافة، بناء القوة التي تمكن من حماية ذلك، واعتمدت استراتيجية دفاعية تحكمها قواعد «النفس الطويل» و«الصبر الاستراتيجي» و«الشجاعة في الموقف» من غير استفزاز أو تحدّ غير محسوب لا بل يقترب الى نوع من «الغموض البناء» الذي لا يوفر للخصم فرصة أو ذريعة للاعتداء.

في ظلّ هذه البيئة دخلت إيران المجال النوويّ واجتازت عتبة امتلاك التقنية معلنة سعيها لاستخدام هذه التقنية للأغراض المدنية والإنسانية السلمية، لكن الغرب وجد في الموضوع باباً وذريعة جديدة للقيام بمزيد من إجراءات الحصار والحرب الاقتصادية وفرض ما يسمّيه «العقوبات» لترويض إيران، مع التلويح بالعمل العسكري لتدمير البنى التحتية الإيرانية ليس في المجال النووي فحسب بل وفي كلّ مجال يمكن تدميره لمنع إيران من التطوّر والتقدّم.

لكن إيران في واقعها وتحالفاتها فاجأت الخصم والعدو، حيث إنها وبذكاء مميّز أفهمت الآخر أنها تملك من القوة العسكرية ما يمكنها من الدفاع عن النفس بالقدر الموثوق كما ويمكنها من الردّ العقابي والثأري على المعتدي الذي تشكل قواعده ومراكزه ومواقعه الاستراتيجية التي هي في متناول اليد النارية لإيران وتحت تأثير المنظومة الصاروخية تشكل أهدافاً مشروعة للردّ الدفاعي. وكانت إيران قد نجحت في تحضير نفسها للأمر وفي الإعلان عن ذلك حتى قبل أن تكشف عن المستوى الذي وصلت إليه في المجال النووي.

هذا الواقع منع الخصم والعدو لإيران من ارتكاب أيّ حماقة تذكر بما قامت به «إسرائيل» يوم دمّرت طائراتها مفاعل تموز العراقي ومرّ الأمر وكأنه لم يحصل، لكن إيران فرضت على الجميع معادلة ردع تحميها وتمنع من الاعتداء عليها وفرضت على الآخر الذهاب الى المفاوضات لبحث الموضوع.

إنّ الاتفاق الذي أفضت اليه مفاوضات 5+1 مع إيران حول ملفها النووي، والذي صادق عليه مجلس الأمن وحوّله وثيقة أممية شرعية، لم يكن ثمرة أخلاق وإنسانية مجموعة 5+1 ورغبتها بحلّ المسألة سلمياً، بل كان نتيجة عجز تلك المجموعة عن اللجوء الى القوة لعسكرية لمنع إيران من متابعة مشروعها النووي، ولهذا شكل الاتفاق حول الملف النووي مخرجاً للجميع، إيران احتفظت بحقها في السير في المسار النووي ضمن قيود تؤكد على طبيعته السلمية المدنية وتفكّ حزمة من عقوبات فرضت عليها بشكل كيدي إجرامي، والطرف الآخر يؤكد على «حق يدّعيه ويراه حقاً مكتسباً» بمنع أحد من دخول النادي النووي العسكري سواه.

لكن أميركا التي تعمل بسياسة منع إيران من الاستقلال والقوة ونصرة المظلوم، انقلبت على الاتفاق وقامت بأغرب سلوك يمكن ان يتصوّره أحد، سلوك مضمونه ان تستمرّ إيران بالوفاء بالتزاماتها في الاتفاق وأن تتنصل أميركا من كلّ ما التزمت به وان تبقي العقوبات لا بل تتشدّد فيها، وكان الردّ الإيراني الذكي بالتراجع المتدرج عن تلك الالتزامات، تراجع ترافق مع إظهار القوة العسكرية الدفاعية والقادرة على الدفاع عن النفس وجوداً ومصالح.

وظهر أنه وبصرف النظر عمن يسكن البيت الأبيض ترامب الخارج على الاتفاق ام بايدن الذي يوحي بأنه يريد العودة إليه بشروط، ان سياسة الطرفين الإيراني والأميركي باتت واضحة، إيران تريد ممارسة حق، وأميركا تريد الابتزاز ومنع إيران من ممارسة حقوقها وبصرف النظر عن عناوين تلك الحقوق، فلمن تكون الغالبة؟

لقد أجاب السيد علي الخامنئي بوضوح كلي على السؤال هذا، مظهراً انّ العالم دخل «مرحلة ما بعد أميركا» وعلى العاقل أن يفسّر وان يدرك أنّ رائد الصبر الاستدراجي في العالم غير مستعدّ للتراجع والتنازل أمام قوة دخلت مرحلة الأفول، فالإمبراطورية الأميركية كما قلنا في مقالة سابقة تتأهّب للزوال ويفوز من يشدّ ويُحكم قبضته على مصادر قوته وانْ تطلب الأمر تحمّل بعض الألم وهو ينتظر النصر الأكبر، وعلى بايدن أن يعرف انّ إيران تعتقد وتثق بأنها في نهاية المطاف هي المنتصرة وعليه ان لا يضيّع وقتاً في العودة للاتفاق النووي لأنّ التأخير لن يكون في مصلحته، وهو يعلم ان لا سبيل للحلّ إلا بالاتفاق هذا وليس متاحاً اليوم شيء سواه . فهل تكون السجالات الإعلامية اليوم عرضاً للقوة وتحضيراً للتفاوض لعودة أميركا الى ملف يدّعي بايدن بأنه يشكل أولوية لديه؟ ام النزعة الاستعمارية والتمسك بالعنجهية الأميركية والعداء ضدّ إيران سيطيح هذه الأولوية؟ إنها أسابيع قليلة ويأتي الجواب؟

*أستاذ جامعي – خبير استراتيجي.

فيديوات ذات صلة

Imam Khamenei: Iran will Reverse Nuclear Steps only if US Lifts Sanctions First

Imam Khamenei: Iran will Reverse Nuclear Steps only if US Lifts Sanctions First

By Staff, Agencies

The Leader of the Islamic Revolution His Eminence Imam Sayyed Ali Khamenei confirmed that Iran will retrace its nuclear countermeasures once the United States lifts its sanctions in a manner that could be verifiable by Tehran.

“Iran will return to its JCOPA obligations once the US fully lifts its sanctions in action and not in words or on paper, and once the sanction relief is verified by Iran,” Imam Khamenei announced, referring by abbreviation to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the official name of the landmark nuclear agreement that Iran signed with the P5+1 group of states – the US, the UK, France, Russia, and China plus Germany – in Vienna in 2015.

His Eminence made the remarks in Tehran on Sunday during a meeting with commanders, pilots, and staff members of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force [IRIAF].

Under his signature “maximum pressure” policy against Iran, former US president Donald Trump withdrew Washington from the JCPOA and restored the economic sanctions that the deal had removed.

In his Sunday’s remarks, the Leader said it was the “definitive and irreversible” policy of the Islamic Republic that the United States ought to first fully eliminate the sanctions before Iran could reverse its retaliatory measures.

Trump’s successor, Joe Biden, has signaled a willingness to rejoin the JCPOA, which was inked when he was vice president. However, his foreign policy team has said Iran should take the first step by coming back into “full compliance” with the deal, a condition Tehran says is unacceptable.

“The Americans and the Europeans have no right to set any conditions [of their own] as they violated their JCPOA commitments,” Imam Khamenei stated, adding that Iran would pay no heed to the “idle talk” of some “undeserving” American and European officials in this regard.

He further added: “They initially put some of the sanctions in abeyance for a brief period, but then re-imposed and even intensified them,” in reference to Washington and its allies’ initial limited compliance with the JCPOA. “Therefore, they have no right to come up with any conditions,” the Leader reiterated.

Imam Khamenei pointed to Washington’s past failures to hurt Iran’s Islamic establishment as one of its numerous miscalculations concerning the country.

The Leader particularly recalled Trump’s national security advisor John Bolton’s failed prediction that Washington would successfully enable a “regime change” in Iran by early 2019.

“One of those very first-class idiots had said two years ago that they would be celebrating the New Year in Tehran in January 2019,” Imam Khamenei noted.

“Now, that person has entered the dustbin of history and his boss [Trump] has been kicked out of the White House in a humiliating manner. By God’s grace, though, the Islamic Republic still stands tall,” the Leader noted.

In parallel, Imam Khamenei named the US support for the riots that broke out in Iran in 2009 as another instance of Washington’s miscalculations in its efforts to bring about the collapse of the Islamic Republic.

Washington’s excessive trust in the Pahlavi regime’s military, the Leader said, was yet another calculation that was proven wrong when the air force personnel turned their backs on the US-backed regime.

His Eminence described the officers deserting the army and joining the masses of revolutionary people as a “miracle-like” development that hugely contributed to the Revolution’s victory.

Meanwhile, Imam Khamenei also pointed to Trump’s chaotic final days in the White House, which culminated in the invasion of the Capitol Hill by his extremist supporters.

The Leader said the incidents were not to be underplayed and judged only in light of the twilight of an American president. Rather, those developments in fact marked “the twilight of America’s reputation, power, and social integrity,” he noted.

He advised the Iranian officials to always beware of the enemy and its error-riddled calculations and “constantly increase the constituents of national power.”

He hailed the recent back-to-back military exercises featuring the Army and Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards [IRG] as attempts by “the children of this country to boost national security,” calling the maneuvers “a cause for pride.”

Imam Khamenei, meanwhile, denounced certain regional states for relying on extra-regional sources for their own security, noting that those very same foreign powers would desert them when their assistance is required.

The Leader cited the likes of Iran’s monarch including Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak or Tunisia’s Zine El Abidine Ben Ali as examples of regional rulers who mistakenly placed their trust in foreign powers.

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Iranian Nuclear Weapons. Is Israel Too Scared To Strike?

The key standoff in the Middle East, that between Israel and Iran, has been steadily ramping up.

Over the last two months Israel and its allies, primarily the US and Saudi Arabia, have done quite a bit to antagonize Iran and attempt and impair it from achieving its ambitions.

Iran’s response is coming, and the aim is an asymmetric counter attack that would heavily hamper Israel’s interests.

Tehran’s response will likely be two-pronged:

On the one hand through its proxies and allies – namely the Houthis in Yemen who are pushing back Saudi Arabia and inflicting heavy losses on it. Iran recently sent advanced suicide drones to Yemen, so Riyadh appears to be in for a surprise.

Separately, it’s operating through its allies in Iraq and Syria, as reports of US convoys suffering explosions are becoming a rather regular occurrence.

On the other, Iran’s nuclear program appears to be developing steadily, and the Wall Street Journal even stoke the oven by claiming that Tehran was nearing production of a “key material for nuclear warheads”.

There’s been no confirmation to that, but it also works to Iran’s benefit and will be used as a mechanism to check if Israel is willing to attack its nuclear program, once again, after allegedly killing Iran’s top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.

Tehran is working to produce its enriched uranium, which it maintains is for peaceful purposes, and uses this as a lever to pressure the United States and force Israel’s hand. Most recently, Iran said that Washington’s return to the Nuclear Deal, as incoming President Joe Biden has signaled, was simply “extortion” if its not accompanied by a lifting of sanctions.

As such, Iran says that not only must Washington want to return, but it also needs to do something to make up for their past failures – namely, lift the sanctions the Trump Administration imposed.

Israel, feeling the urgency of its situation, warned that if the US were to return to the Nuclear Deal, it would feel forced and strike the facilities being used in Iran’s nuclear program, in order to hamper any progress, it may be having towards an alleged weapon. If this really happens, this will easily lead to a large-scale regional war.

Currently, Israel and the US have largely played their hands – attacks on various proxy positions, as well as various threats and military deployments.

For Iran, the field is wide open and its Tehran’s turn to make its move and it is likely to be an asymmetric action, not focused in a single point of tension, but rather on several.

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Biden and the inevitable return to the nuclear understanding بايدن وحتميّة العودة للتفاهم النوويّ

**Please scroll down for the English Machine translation**

بايدن وحتميّة العودة للتفاهم النوويّ

ناصر قنديل

تمتلئ الصحف العربية والأجنبية والقنوات المموّلة من دول الخليج بتحليلات وتقارير ومواقف لخبراء، تركز على تعقيدات تعترض طريق عودة إدارة الرئيس الأميركي المنتخب جو بايدن، تبني عليها الاستنتاج بأن بايدن سيجد طريقاً آخر غير العودة للاتفاق، وجوهر التعقيدات التي يجري استعراضها التي تتوزّع بين مستجدات الملف النووي نفسه، ما يستدعي بعد الخطوات التي اتخذتها إيران منذ الانسحاب الأميركي من التفاهم، ما هو أكثر من مجرد إعلان إيران عن العودة للالتزامات، وهو ما قاله مدير الوكالة الدولية للطاقة الذرية، بالإضافة لاعتبار ملف الصواريخ الإيرانية البالستية والملفات الإقليمية الملتهبة في اليمن وسورية والعراق أسباباً إضافية لتعطيل فرص العودة للتفاهم.

معلوم أن إيران ترفض أي مراحل انتقالية، تتضمن تفاوضاً يسبق العودة للتفاهم، وتصرّ على اعتبار العودة الأميركية المطلوبة بلا شروط لتقابلها عودة للالتزامات من جانب إيران، وعندها ينعقد لقاء الخمسة زائداً واحداً، الذي تشارك فيه الأمم المتحدة والوكالة الدولية للطاقة الذرية، والاتحاد الأوروبي كشركاء مع الدول المعنية، وفي هذا الإطار الراعي للتفاهم يتم التداول بكل القضايا التقنية التي أراد مدير الوكالة مطالبة إيران بها عبر تصريحاته التي رفضتها إيران، أما في شأن الملفات الأخرى التي يتحدّث عنها الأوروبيون والأميركيون سواء ملف الصواريخ الإيرانية أو ملفات النزاع الإقليمية، فهي قضايا سبق وكانت مطروحة قبل التوقيع على الاتفاق النووي، وفي النهاية بقيت قضايا خلافية وتقرّر السير بالاتفاق رغم بقائها.

السؤال الذي يواجه بايدن، هو الذي واجهه مع الرئيس باراك أوباما عام 2015، أنه في ظل وجود قضايا عالقة مع إيران، ما هي الطريقة الفضلى للتعامل مع الملف النووي، مواصلة الرهان على العقوبات أم الذهاب للحرب أو الاحتكام لقواعد التفاهم، وكان قرار ثنائي أوباما بايدن يومها، الاحتكام للتفاهم، وهذا ما شرحه أوباما مراراً بقوله إنه يدرك أن الاتفاق سيئ، لكنه يدرك أن البديل الذي يمثله الرهان غير الموثوق على العقوبات، مخاطرة كبرى بإضاعة الفرصة، وصولاً لاكتشاف لحظة تمتلك فيها إيران قنبلة نووية، شارحاً كيف أن واشنطن كانت تكتشف مع كل توقف للتفاوض وعودة للعقوبات أنها عندما تعود للتفاوض أن الملف النووي زاد تعقيداً وقدرات إيران زادت نمواً، بينما الحرب مغامرة أشد خطورة، ولا تزال ردود أوباما على رئيس حكومة الاحتلال بنيامين نتنياهو يومها، بنظر فريق بايدن صالحة اليوم، وفقاً لنتائج تجربة الرئيس دونالد ترامب.

يقول فريق بايدن إذا كانت الحرب خياراً، فلماذا لم يلجأ إليها ثنائي ترامب ونتنياهو، أما عن العقوبات فيستعرض فريق بايدن، حصيلة السنوات الأربع لمشروع ترامب نتنياهو، بالخروج من الاتفاق النووي والرهان على العقوبات، التي تسببت بالكثير من الخسائر لإيران، لكنها لم تخل بنظام الحكم ولا فرضت على القيادة الإيرانية التنازلات المطلوبة، وبالمقابل خسرت واشنطن وحلفاؤها الكثير في هذه السنوات، سواء في تطور مقدّرات إيران النووية وغير النووية، أو في تراجع وضع حلفائها وتقدم حلفاء إيران، ففي هذه السنوات تحققت الانتصارات الكبرى لسورية، وامتلك حزب الله الصواريخ الدقيقة، وتحوّل أنصار الله إلى قوة عظمى تمسك بأمن الخليج.

فريق بايدن يقول إن التفاهم الذي كان خياراً سيئاً في عام 2015، هو خيار أشد سوءاً في 2020، لكن الرهان على العقوبات كان مخاطرة كبرى عام 2015 وصار حماقة كبرى وانتحاراً في العام 2020، والحرب التي كانت خياراً على الطاولة عام 2015 لم تعد خيار مطروحاً للنقاش في 2020.

Biden and the inevitable return to the nuclear understanding

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Nasser Qandil

Arab and foreign newspapers and gulf-funded channels are full of analysis, reports and positions of experts, focusing on the complexities of the return of President-elect Joe Biden to JCPOA, They concluded that  Biden will find a way other than to returning to the agreement, And the essence of the complications being reviewed that are distributed among the developments of the nuclear file itself, which calls for, after the steps taken by Iran since the US withdrawal from the understanding, more than just Iran’s announcement of a return to commitments, the director of the IAEA said, in addition to considering the file Iranian ballistic missiles and the and the inflamed regional files in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq as additional reasons for disrupting the chances of a return to understanding.

It is known that Iran rejects any transition, including negotiations prior to the return of the understanding, and insists on considering the return of the U.S. unconditionally required to be met by a return to the commitments of Iran, and then the meeting of the P5+1, in which the UN and the IAEA participate, and the European Union as partners with the countries concerned, As for the other issues that the Europeans and the Americans are talking about, whether the Iranian missile file or the regional conflict files, they are issues that were previously discussed before the signing of the nuclear agreement, and in the end they remained contentious issues and it was decided to proceed with the agreement

The question Biden faces, is what he faced with President Barack Obama in 2015, that with the outstanding issues with Iran, what is the best way to deal with the nuclear file, continue to bet on sanctions or go to war or invoke the rules of understanding, and the decision of the Obama-Biden duo on that day, invoking understanding, and this is what Obama has repeatedly explained by saying that he realizes that the deal is bad, but he realizes that the alternative represented by the bet on the sanctions are a great risk of wasting opportunity, explaining how Washington was discovering with every pause for negotiations and a return to sanctions that when it returns to negotiations that the nuclear file has increased complexity and Iran’s capabilities have grown, while the war is a more dangerous adventure, and Obama’s responses to the prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu today, in the eyes of the Biden team, are valid today, according to the results of President Donald Trump’s experience.

Biden’s team says if war is an option, why didn’t the Trump and Netanyahu duo resort to it, but as for the sanctions, Biden’s team,  the outcome of the four-year Trump-Netanyahu project, is reviewing the outcome of the nuclear deal and betting on sanctions, which caused a lot of losses to Iran, but did not disturb the regime or imposed on the Iranian leadership In these years, the major victories of Syria have been achieved, and Hezbollah has possessed precise missiles, and Ansar Allah has turned into a superpower that holds on to Gulf security.

Biden’s team says that understanding, which was a bad choice in 2015, is a worse option in 2020, but betting on sanctions was a major risk in 2015 and became a major folly and suicide in 2020, and the war on the table in 2015 is no longer an option for debate in 2020.

لماذا لا تملك إيران إمكانيّة عدم الرد؟

هل سترد إيران ؟ الحلقة 32 من برنامج ستون دقيقة مع ناصر قنديل

ناصر قنديل

اعقبت عملية اغتيال العالم النووي الإيراني محسن فخري زادة الموصوف بشيخ الملف النووي الإيراني، مساعٍ ومواقف ووساطات لثني إيران عن القيام بردّ على العملية، تخطّت دعوات الأمين العام للأمم المتحدة بضبط النفس ومناشدات الدول الأوروبية بعدم التصعيد، وتجاوزت الوساطات والضغوط التي عرفتها إيران بعد اغتيال قائد فيلق القدس في الحرس الثوريّ الجنرال قاسم سليماني، رغم تشابه المساعي مع ما يجري اليوم من سعي تحت الطاولة لإقناع القيادة الإيرانية بردٍّ محسوب، أسوة بما حصل رداً على اغتيال سليماني. والجديد هذه المرة هو الإطار السياسي للمداخلات التي تقوم على اعتبار العملية محاولة «إسرائيلية» لاستدراج إيران لرد يبرر التصعيد والذهاب لحرب، تريدها قيادة كيان الاحتلال في زمن وجود دونالد ترامب في البيت البيض لجرّ الأميركيين لهذه الحرب، بما لا يملك الرئيس المنتخب جو بايدن القدرة على فرملته او منعه، طالما أن الالتزام بحماية «إسرائيل» وأمنها عابر للحزبين الجمهوري والديمقراطي، وكان أبرز الكلام المقال في هذا السياق هو ما قاله المدير السابق للمخابرات الأميركية جون برينان الذي غرّد معلقاً على الاغتيال بقوله «كان عملاً إجرامياً متهوراً للغاية، وينطوي على مخاطر انتقام مميت وجولة من الصراع الإقليمي، وسيكون من الحكمة على القادة الإيرانيين انتظار عودة قيادة أميركيّة مسؤولة إلى المسرح الدولي، ومقاومة الرغبة في الردّ على الجناة المفترضين»، في دعوة واضحة لإيران لعدم الردّ وانتظار وصول بايدن الى البيت الأبيض قطعاً للطريق على مشروع التصعيد الذي يريده الإسرائيليون.

في طهران نقاش أيضاً حول توقيت الرد وطبيعته، أظهره الكلام عن الردّ في الوقت المناسب، كما أظهرته بعض تعليقات المحللين الإيرانيين بالحديث عن الردّ المحسوب، فليس لدى الإيرانيين أيّ شك بأن محاولة قطع الطريق على فرضية العودة للتفاهم النووي مع إيران من قبل الرئيس المنتخب جو بايدن كانت موضع الاجتماع الذي ضم وزير الخارجية الأميركية مايك بومبيو وولي العهد السعودي محمد بن سلمان ورئيس حكومة الاحتلال بنيامين نتنياهو، وما خرج به الاجتماع من توحيد المقدرات البشرية واللوجستية التي يملكها كل طرف للعمل داخل إيران تحت قيادة الموساد الإسرائيلي الذي كان رئيسه يوسي كوهين مشاركاً في الاجتماع، وهذا يعني أن الجماعات المتطرفة في خوزستان المموّلة من السعودية ستكون جنباً الى جنب مع جماعات «مجاهدي خلق» ومعهما محترفو الموساد للقيام بما يتيح قلب الطاولة قبل نهاية ولاية ترامب، وهو ما كانت عملية الاغتيال من نتائجه، بالإضافة لما يوفره استخدام مرافئ الصيد الإماراتيّة القريبة من السواحل الإيرانيّة من فرص لنقل المعدّات وتهريب الأفراد.

يتطلّع الإيرانيون لفتح صفحة جديدة مع جو بايدن، لكنهم واثقون في ظل الانقسام الأميركي الداخلي الحاد حول الخيارات التي عبرت عنها الانتخابات، وفي ظل تحرك الحلف الثلاثي لترامب ونتنياهو وحكام الخليج، لا يمكن لبايدن أن يخطو أي خطوة جدية نحو العودة للتفاهم النووي، ومعاكسة الاتجاه الذي رسمه ترامب، ما لم يتلقَّ الثلاثي صفعة كافية لإثبات عجزه عن تغيير معادلات المواجهة مع إيران، والعملية إثبات معاكس، تقول إن من الممكن الرهان على إضعاف إيران، ومن الممكن اللجوء الى خطوات تكيتيكيّة رادعة بوجهها، وإذا مرّت العملية من دون رد فسيكون هذا المنطق قد ربح جولة عنوانها وضع بايدن تحت إبط نتنياهو فيما يخصّ الملف النووي مع إيران، ولذلك تقول خلاصة النقاش الإيراني أن ترجمة الحرص على التهيئة لمناخ مختلف مع إدارة بايدن، تبدأ من إثبات سقوط منهج بومبيو نتنياهو وبن سلمان، والخطوة الأولى هنا هي رد رادع يقول إن كلفة العبث مع إيران فوق طاقة تحمّل العابثين.

ردّ رادع لا يشعل حرباً، قبل نهاية ولاية ترامب، هو هدف إيراني؛ بدونه ستجرجر نتائج الاغتيال ومعادلاته ذيولها خلال ولاية بايدن، وسيكون ثلاثي اجتماع نيوم قد دخل شريكاً مباشراً في أي مفاوضات قادمة بين طهران ومجموعة الخمسة زائداً واحداً، إن قيّض لهذه المفاوضات أن تستأنف. وهذا هو المعنى الرمزي التصعيدي لتوصية البرلمان الإيرانيّ، الذي لا يغني عن ردّ بحجم الاغتيال.

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JCPOA-phobia! ‘Israelis’, Saudis ‘Express Views’ on US Return to Iran Nuclear Deal

JCPOA-phobia! ‘Israelis’, Saudis ‘Express Views’ on US Return to Iran Nuclear Deal

By Staff

In yet another futile joint attempt to hurdle the growing Iranian might in defense and science, ‘Israeli’ and Saudi efforts met once again, this time to fight the Iran nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA].

With rumors that the upcoming US administration of President-elect Joe Biden will rejoin the Iran nuclear deal that was signed in 2015 with the P5+1 world powers, Zionist Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that “There must be no return to the previous nuclear agreement.”

Claiming that there is a “military” aspect to Tehran’s nuclear energy program, Netanyahu added: “We must stick to an uncompromising policy to ensure that Iran does not develop nuclear weapons.”

Hebrew media outlets, meanwhile, said Netanyahu’s remarks were clearly addressed at Biden, who has signaled to return to the nuclear accord.

Many inside the Zionist occupation entity believe Netanyahu’s policy of playing hardball against Iran is a tactic to deflect attention from his current political problems as he is facing probe over several corruption cases and frequent protests which have drawn people in tens of thousands taking to the streets to also denounce his mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the United Nations Abdallah Al-Mouallimi said on Sunday that the incoming US administration is not “unexperienced enough” to return to the JCPOA

He then called for negotiations for a new deal with the Islamic Republic involving his country.

Al-Mouallimi dismissed the idea that the United States would re-enter the nuclear deal with Iran under Biden’s administration.

He said nobody would be “naive enough” to go back to a deal that has “proven its failure to the entire world.”

Speaking during an appearance on Fox News’ ‘America’s News HQ’, al-Mouallimi said he did not believe Biden’s administration would pivot from the Gulf states back to Iran and the nuclear deal.

“No, I think that the Iran nuclear deal has proven its failure to the entire world. And I don’t think that anybody is going to be naive enough to go back to the same deal,” he claimed.

“If there is a new deal in which Saudi Arabia is involved in the discussion and which covers the shortcomings of the previous deal … then we will be all for it.”

Relatively, Iran’s nuclear program has been subject to the most intensive inspections ever in the world, and the International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] has repeatedly verified the peaceful nature of the activities.

Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic has clearly distanced itself from pursuing non-conventional weapons, citing religious and humanitarian beliefs. According to a fatwa issued by Leader of the Islamic Revolution His Eminence Imam Sayyed Ali Khamenei, acquisition of nuclear weapons is haram or forbidden in Islam.

Will Biden be the head of restoration and review of major Middle Eastern files? هل يكون بايدن رئيس الترميم ومراجعة الملفات الشرق أوسطية الكبرى؟

Will Biden be the head of restoration and review of major Middle Eastern files?

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Brigadier General Dr. Amin Mohammed Hatit

The world has not known a president who has created in international relations and corrupted the major core files in it, as witnessed with Donald Trump, the current U.S. president, who failed to renew his mandate, and now has to come out of the White House with a praise that regrets his luck and blames those who failed him or betrayed him.

Trump is coming out of power, leaving behind him, as well as from the major international files that have corrupted his tracks, and who are waiting for the parties concerned to intervene in the United States, contrary to the arrogance and insanity of the Trumpi in its circulation, and to put an end to the corruption that caused a terrible imbalance in international relations and caused serious damage to it on more than one level, but the Middle East region has been harmed by Trump’s aggressiveness, greed and madness, a lot of harm that he has inflicted on him in exchange for cash or in kind payments to him. He’s connected to those files on Trump’s back in order to fix what’s been corrupted.

Here… Apart from the issues of armaments, climate, alliances, international relations and the economic, security and political wars that America is waging on more than one level, the files that America is affecting in our region are not the small size of the Syrian and Iraqi situation to the Iranian nuclear file to the deal of the century to the Turkish and Gulf ogres, all of which are hot citizens affected by the decision and the American behavior, which makes us ask the question about the course of the new American policy in those citizens and how will the performance of the new democratic president Joe Biden and the second Catholic reach to Rule in America after John F. Kennedy, and will it be a dramatic coup on Trump’s decisions in these files? Or does the deep American state have other decisions and paths that do not deny the above?

First of all, it should be noted that despite all that has been said and said of the situations or coups that America is witnessing with the change of head of state, it is not to be taken for granted, since the truth seems otherwise. Although the president’s personality is essential in the state, there are standards and controls in the U.S. system that prevent the formation of extreme coup slings and prevent interruptions with the past, so the new president, whoever comes to the White House, finds himself obliged to deal with the legacy of the former departing whatever this legacy is on the basis that the rule “that governing continues” taking into account cases of exceptional anomalies as happened with Trump and his coup decisions. The next president inherits the legacy of the former and treats it as a fait accompli that means America and then works on restoration and correction for development and rarely we see radical coups as Trump did in specificfiles.

Trump has left major files on the Middle East that require decisions from new President Joe Biden to address, reform, or change, raising the question of the new u.S. policy paths to those files with the change in the head of state after the presidential election that prevented Trump from remaining in the White House for four more years. Here, taking into account the principle of continuity of state function, a change may govern the U.S. performance on these files unevenly, a change imposed by the new balance of power, trump’s failure to reach the finals of the file, and Biden’s tendency to restore and correct from the degree to which those files have reached:

1 The war on Syria and the U.S. presence there and in Iraq: Through the stated positions and realities on the ground, we do not expect the Biden administration to take a decision to withdraw from the two countries, and U.S. policy under the new president will be destined for a situation that does not constitute the declaration of defeat of the Arab Spring in them, which is the “spring” he launched The Democrats under Obama’s term, so the two countries will have to deal with a U.S. administration that will try to get the whole country to try to activate the division and fragmentation files, especially since Biden is the owner of the partition project and that his land is slowly forming in the northeastern Euphrates Syria and in the north of Iraq in the Kurdistan region. It is true that the partition decision is not easy to achieve in light of the existing changes on the ground, but it has become a danger that has increased its intensity from what existed, which means that the two countries will not see soon breakthroughs under the Biden administration that will bring them back to normal except by exceptional political and military action with the support of allies, which is urgent and not excluded..

2 «Deal of the century» will be the most likely destination with Biden in power with what will constitute a freeze of negative frequencies on the personal status of both Netanyahu and Mohammed bin Salman where we see that biden’s project to solve the Palestinian issue is based on two-state basis in the form of the “deal of the century”, and this project will return to the forefront taking into account the steps achieved under the deal that has not been implemented what makes it final and not revisitable, as the size ofthe The obstacles to the completion of implementation are now much larger than the size of the pressure to pass it, and therefore we see that the Palestinian issue will enter into a new stage of fanship in which there is no ability to follow up in the deal of the Century Trump and there are not enough opportunities for a radical solution that satisfies the Palestinians, but will register in any case the opponents of the “deal of the century” that they succeeded in first and freeze it later and still hindered them to work in order to abort what has been implemented and prevent the resumption of work.

3. Iran’s nuclear dossier will see an important move toward a re-examination of the U.S. position in it after Trump withdrew America’s signature on the 5+1 solution with Iran and was enshrined in a Security Council resolution. We believe that Iran will enter with the U.S. and other parties in restrictive negotiations in order to develop this agreement after America backs away from Trump’s malicious actions against it..

I think that Biden will return Turkey in general and Erdogan in particular to the seat set by the West for him and will not let him follow his authoritarian and mongol march on the region from Libya to Azerbaijan, passing through Syria, Iraq, Cyprus and Greece, and Erdogan will find himself controlled by Biden’s leadership bringing him back to work, for his advantage, without special Turkish expansionist independent project.

5 Saudi and Gulf illusion and the War of Yemen, Yemen may be at the forefront of america’s review of its policy in the region by Biden, where we do not expect the latter to give additional time to Saudi Arabia to resolve the war of Yemen, a solution that is now in the rule of the impossible, so we believe that the war of Yemen may see its dramatically end in the coming year.

Therefore, we can say that the possible breakthroughs will be witnessed by the Yemeni and Iranian situation, and complications in the Syrian, Iraqi and Palestinian affairs if there is no internal shock supported by external support and control even the restriction of the Gulf and Turkish movement in the region from the American side, but the response remains subject to the decisions of regional and international stakeholders, who will act without a doubt on the basis of the developments drawn by the confrontations internationally and regionally, which dropped the saying that “America is the destiny” doing what it wants and imposes what it wants, America is finished, with the rise of multipolarity.

هل يكون بايدن رئيس الترميم ومراجعة الملفات الشرق أوسطية الكبرى؟

العميد د. أمين محمد حطيط

لم يعرف العالم رئيساً أميركياً أحدث في العلاقات الدولية وأفسد في الملفات الأساسية الكبرى فيها كما شهده مع دونالد ترامب الرئيس الأميركي الحالي، الذي فشل في تجديد ولايته، وبات عليه ان يخرج من البيت الأبيض مذموماً مدحوراً يندب حظه ويلوم من خذله أو خانه.

يخرج ترامب من الحكم مخلفاً وراءه كمّاً من الملفات الدولية الكبرى التي أفسد مساراتها والتي ينتظر الأطراف المعنيون بها تدخلاً أميركياً مغايراً للغطرسة والجنون الترامبي في تداولها، ولوضع حدّ للإفساد الذي أحدث خللاً فظيعاً في العلاقات الدولية وتسبّب بأضرار بالغة فيها على أكثر من صعيد، اما منطقة الشرق الأوسط فقد نالها من عدوانية ترامب وجشعه وجنونه الكثير الكثير من الأذى الذي أنزله فيها مقابل أموال نقدية أو عينية دفعها له من كان مستفيداً من أفعاله السيئة تلك، ولهذا يعوّل من هو على صلة بتلك الملفات على خلف ترامب من أجل أن يصلح ما أفسد فهل يفعل خاصة على صعيد الملفات التي تعنينا مباشرة في المنطقة؟

وهنا… وبعيداً عن قضايا التسلح والمناخ والتحالفات والعلاقات الدولية والحروب الاقتصادية والأمنية والسياسية التي تشنّها أميركا على أكثر من صعيد، فإنّ الملفات التي تؤثر فيها أميركا في منطقتنا ليست بالحجم الصغير من الوضع السوري والعراقي الى الملف النووي الإيراني الى صفقة القرن الى التغوّل التركي والجموح الخليجي وكلها مواطن حامية تتأثر بالقرار والأداء والسلوك الأميركي ما يجعلنا نطرح السؤال حول مسار السياسة الأميركية الجديدة في تلك المواطن وكيف سيكون فيها أداء الرئيس الجديد جو بايدن الديمقراطي المسنّ وثاني كاثوليكي يصل الى الحكم في أميركا بعد جون كنيدي، وهل ستكون انقلابات دراماتيكية على قرارات ترامب في هذه الملفات؟ أم أن للدولة الأميركية العميقة قرارات ومسارات أخرى لا تتنكر لما سبق؟

بداية لا بدّ من التنويه انه رغم كلّ ما قيل ويقال من أوضاع أو حالات انقلابية تشهدها أميركا مع تغيير رأس الدولة هو أمر لا يمكن الاخذ به على إطلاقه، حيث انّ الحقيقة تبدو خلاف ذلك. اذ رغم انّ شخصية الرئيس أساسية في الدولة فإنّ هناك معايير وضوابط في النظام الأميركي تمنع تشكل الحالات الانقلابية الجذرية الحادة وتحول دون إحداث انقطاع مع الماضي، وبالتالي فإنّ الرئيس الجديد أيّاً كان هذا القادم الى البيت الأبيض يجد نفسه ملزماً بالتعامل مع إرث السابق المغادر كيفما كان هذا الإرث على قاعدة «انّ الحكم استمرار» مع الأخذ بعين الاعتبار حالات من الشذوذ الاستثنائي كما حصل مع ترامب وقراراته الانقلابية. فالرئيس القادم يرث تركة السابق ويتعامل معها على أساس أنها أمر واقع يعني أميركا ثم يعمل على الترميم والتصحيح من أجل التطوير وقلما نشهد حالات انقلابية جذرية كما كان يفعل ترامب في ملفات محدّدة.

لقد خلف ترامب ملفات كبرى تعني منطقة الشرق الأوسط وتتطلب قرارات من الرئيس الجديد جو بايدن لمعالجتها تصحيحاً أو ترميماً أو تغييراً، ما يطرح السؤال عن مسارات السياسة الأميركية الجديدة حيال تلك الملفات مع التغيير الحاصل في رأس الدولة بعد الانتخابات الرئاسية التي منعت ترامب من البقاء في البيت الأبيض لأربع سنوات جديدة. وهنا، ومع الاخذ الحتمي بمبدأ استمرارية عمل الدولة فإنّ تغييراً قد يحكم الأداء الأميركي حيال تلك الملفات بشكل متفاوت تغييراً فرضته موازين القوى الجديدة وتعثر ترامب وفشله في الوصول الى نهائيات الملف ونزعة بايدن للترميم والتصحيح انطلاقاً من الدرجة التي وصلت اليها تلك الملفات وفقاً لما يلي:

1

ـ الحرب على سورية والوجود الأميركي فيها وفي العراق: من خلال المواقف المعلنة والوقائع القائمة على الأرض لا نتوقع ان تتخذ إدارة بايدن قراراً بالانسحاب من البلدين، وستكون السياسة الأميركية في ظلّ الرئيس الجديد متجهة لوضع لا يشكل إعلان هزيمة «الربيع العربي» فيهما وهو «الربيع» الذي أطلقه الديمقراطيون في ظلّ ولاية أوباما ولذلك سيكون على البلدين التعامل مع إدارة أميركية ستحاول بعد الفشل في وضع اليد على كامل البلاد ستحاول تفعيل ملفات التقسيم والتجزئة التامة خاصة أنّ بايدن صاحب مشروع التقسيم أصلاً وانّ أرضيته تتشكل رويداً في شمالي شرقي الفرات سورياً وفي الشمال العراقي في إقليم كردستان. وصحيح انّ قرار التقسيم ليس أمراً سهلاً تحقيقه في ظلّ المتغيّرات الميدانية القائمة إلا أنه بات خطراً ارتفعت نسبة شدّته عما كان قائماً ما يعني انّ البلدين لن يشهدا في ظلّ إدارة بايدن انفراجات قريبة تعيدهما الى الوضع الطبيعي إلا بعمل استثنائي سياسي وعسكري يحصل بدعم من الحلفاء وهو أمر بات ملحاً كما انه غير مستبعد.

2

ـ «صفقة القرن» سيكون التجميد فيها هو الوجهة المرجحة مع وجود بايدن في السلطة مع ما سيشكل تجميدها من ترددات سلبية على الوضع الشخصي لكلّ من نتنياهو ومحمد بن سلمان حيث نرى انّ مشروع بايدن لحلّ القضية الفلسطينية قائم على أساس الدولتين في غير صيغة «صفقة القرن»، وسيعود هذا المشروع الى الواجهة أخذاً بعين الاعتبار الخطوات التي تحققت في إطار الصفقة التي لم ينفذ منها ما يجعلها نهائية غير قابلة لإعادة النظر، حيث انّ حجم العوائق لاكتمال التنفيذ بات الآن أكبر بكثير من حجم الضغوط من أجل تمريرها ولهذا نرى انّ القضية الفلسطينية ستدخل في مرحلة مراوحة جديدة لا يكون فيها قدرة على المتابعة في صفقة القرن الترامبية ولا يوجد فرص كافية لحلّ جذري يرضي الفلسطينيين ولكن سيسجل على أيّ حال لمعارضي «صفقة القرن» انهم نجحوا في عرقلتها أولاً وتجميدها لاحقاً ويبقى عليهم العمل من أجل إجهاض ما نفذ منها ومنع استئناف العمل بها.

3

ـ الملف النووي الإيراني. سيشهد هذا الملف تحريكاً مهماً باتجاه إعادة النظر بموقع الولايات المتحدة فيه بعد ان سحب ترامب توقيع أميركا عن الحلّ الذي توصلت اليه مجموعة 5+1 مع إيران وكرّس بقرار من مجلس الأمن. ونعتقد انّ إيران ستدخل مع الأميركي والأطراف الأخرى في مفاوضات مقيّدة من أجل تطوير هذا الاتفاق بعد ان تتراجع أميركا عن إجراءات ترامب الكيدية بحقها. ولا نتصوّر بأنّ أميركا ستعود الى الاتفاق وكان القرار الترامبي لم يقع بل نرى حلاً وسطاً سيحكم الملف تستفيد منه إيران ما سيؤكد مرة أخرى انّ صمود إيران حفظ حقوقها ويثبت انّ سياسة العقوبات الأميركية فشلت في تحقيق الأهداف منها.

4

ـ التغوّل التركي الواسع، سيواجَه بقرارات أميركية جدية تمنع استمراره، واعتقد انّ بايدن سيعيد تركيا عامة وأردوغان بخاصة الى المقعد الذي حدّده الغرب له ولن يدعه يتابع مسيرته التسلطية والتغوّل على المنطقة امتداداً من لبيبا الى أذربيجان مروراً بكلّ من سورية والعراق وقبرص واليونان، وسيجد أردوغان نفسه مع بايدن أنه أمام قيادة تضبطه وتعيده الى العمل لمصلحتها وعنصراً في معسكرها دون أن تترك له المجال لممارسة مشروع تركي توسعي خاص مستقلّ عن الغرب. وهذا سينعكس حتماً على الميدان في كلّ من ليبيا وسورية والعراق وأذربيجان.

5

ـ الوهم السعودي والخليجي وحرب اليمن، قد يكون اليمن في طليعة المستفيدين من مراجعة أميركا لسياستها في المنطقة على يد بايدن، حيث لا نتوقع أن يعطي الأخير وقتاً إضافياً للسعودية لحسم حرب اليمن، وهو حسم بات في حكم المستحيل، لذلك نعتقد انّ حرب اليمن قد تشهد نهاية لها خلال العام المقبل وبشكل دراماتيكي من الوجهة السعودية،

وعليه نستطيع ان نقول انّ انفراجات مرجحة سيشهدها الوضع اليمني والإيراني، وتعقيدات أو مراوحة في الشأن السوري والعراقي والفلسطيني انْ لم تحدث صدمة داخلية مسندة بدعم خارجي وضبط حتى التقييد للحركة الخليجية والتركية في المنطقة هذا من الجانب الأميركي، أما الردّ فيبقى رهن قرارات المعنيين الإقليميين والدوليين، الذين سيتصرفون بدون شك على أساس المستجدات التي رسمتها المواجهات دولياً وإقليمياً، والتي أسقطت القول بانّ «أميركا هي القدر الذي لا يُردّ» والتي تفعل ما تشاء وتفرض ما تشاء، فأميركا هذه انتهت وانّ عالم القطب الواحد الذي رغبت به غير قائم الآن، في ظلّ وضع باتت ملامح نظامه مؤكدة قائمة على التعددية في المجموعات الاستراتيجية.

فيديوات مرتبطة

لبنان لن ينهار مسيو ماكرون وأميركا هي المرشّحة للانفجار

محمد صادق الحسيني

تقول الحكاية مع هذا الأوروبي صاحب التجارب المليئة بالمجازر المباشرة وغير المباشرة ضدّ شعوب منطقتنا العربيّة والإسلامية إنّ: طعن الخديعة أخطر من عدو بلا خرطوش…!

أميركا لم يعد لديها ولا رصاصة في جعبتها لتطلقها ضدّ إيران…!

لكن خديعة أوروبا أخطر من هذا الموقف الأميركي العاجز…!

ظريف الأكثر تفاؤلاً يقول إنها لم تنفذ 11 تعهّداً لها تجاه إيران…!

تتظاهر أوروبا كذباً أنها لا تزال ملتزمة بالاتفاق النووي،

لكن لم يعد أحد في إيران يصدّق أوروبا حتى أكثر المراهنين عليها.

ولما كان المؤمن كيّساً فطناً، وليس كيسَ قطن، فإنّ على لبنان أن يأخذ الدرس مما حصل معه في ما بات يسمّى بالمبادرة الفرنسية أو خريطة طريق قصر الصنوبر…

ها هو ماكرون ينحاز عملياً وبشكل لا لبس فيه لصالح أميركا وينضمّ الى فريق ترامب الانتخابي…

إطلاق النار السياسية على حزب الله وتحميله مسؤولية فشل مبادرته والتلويح بالخيار «الإسرائيلي» السعودي الذي أبطنه عندما قال:

لا يستطيع حزب الله أن يكون جيشاً لمحاربة «إسرائيل» و»ميليشيا» في سورية وحزباً سياسياً «محترماً» في لبنان…!

وسنصبر 4 الى 6 أسابيع لنرى، هل سيختارون الخيار الديمقراطي أم الخيار الآخر…!؟

وهو الذي ضمّنه شروحه وهو يتحدث عن الكيانين «الإسرائيلي» والسعودي اللذين قال إنهما يطالبان بإعلان الحرب على حزب الله…

والذي وصفه في بداية المؤتمر الصحافي بأنه مغامرة…

بينما لوّح به في نهاية المؤتمر الصحافي…!

لكن ما لم يقله ماكرون في المؤتمر الصحافي هو المهمّ والأخطر، فما هو:

إنني، أي ماكرون، كلفت من قبل الإدارة الأميركية بتجريب فكرة المبادرة لحشر الحزب والمقاومة، فإنْ نجحت بها أكون قد أدخلت لبنان بنفق الحرب الناعمة التي تأخذ لبنان من خلال «حكومة المهمة»‏ الى الصلح والتطبيع مع الكيان الإسرائيلي، من بوابة ترسيم الحدود البحرية وووو…

وإنْ لم أنجح في ذلك، حمّلت الحزب وسلاح المقاومة المسؤولية، وعندها أترك المجال للأصيل الأميركيّ أن يخوض المعركة المباشرة وأنا ذيلٌ مراوغ له، كما فعلت مع الحالة الإيرانية في غمار لعبة البوليس السيّئ والبوليس الجيد التي يلعبونها هو وسيّده الأميركي مع إيران منذ انسحاب الرئيس المهرّج دونالد ترامب من الاتفاق النووي…!

وعودة إلى لبنان من جديد، فإنّ ما لا يعرفه ماكرون المدّعي، عن لبنان هو أنّ هذا البلد أكبر مما يتصوّر ولا تلخصه سلطة فاسدة ولا أحزاب تخون وطنها، كما قال وكلاهما اصلاً من صناعته وصناعة أسياده، بل إنّ لبنان بات راشداً وكبيراً وذا همّة عالية ومنغرسة أوتاده في أرض تطهّرت بدماء عشرات ومئات وألوف الشهداء القادة، ولم يعُد أحد، أيّ أحد، مهما تجبّر واستعلى أن يحرّك فيه حجراً عن حجرـ من دون إرادة سيد لبنان وسياج لبنان المحصّن بثلاثية الجيش والشعب والمقاومة…

ولبنان هذا غير قابل للانفجار ولا الانهيار أبداً…

تهويلكم مردود عليه إذ لدينا من خزائن المفاجآت ما سيجعلكم تنبهرون وتبلعون ألسنتكم…!

مَن سينفجر وينهار هي الولايات المتحدة الأميركية التي باتت كتلة ميليشيات متعدّدة بمئات الألوف تهدّد وحدة الاتحاد الأميركي وأمن أميركا القومي والحرب الأهلية على الأبواب مباشرة بعد الانتخاب فاز ترامب أم بايدن. فالأوّل سيأتي بالتقسيم والانفصال والتجزئة وصولاً الى الحرب، بينما الثاني سيقود مباشرة الى الحرب الأهلية كما يقرّ، ويعترف كبار محللي وكتاب الأعمدة الأميركيين ومنهم توماس فريدمان على سبيل المثال لا الحصر…

وسيّدك ترامب هذا يا مسيو ماكرون هو بعظمة لسانه قال إنه لن يسلم السلطة اذا فاز منافسه، ما يعني انّ كذبكم وخداعكم حول ديمقراطية الغرب باتت على المحكّ وبالمباشر على التلفاز وهو ما سنحضره جميعاً على الهواء مباشرة بعد الثالث من تشرين الثاني نوفمبر المقبل مجدّداً بكلّ شفافية ووضوح…!

فعلى مَن تكذب ولماذا تراوغ وعلى مَن تتحايل عندما تقول إنك تحبّ لبنان وتحبّ مساعدة لبنان..!؟

انت لا تحبّ إلا نفسك وعائلة روتشيلد، وما أنت إلا مدير بنك في هذه المجموعة، تصرّفت هكذا حتى في المؤتمر الصحافي وأنت تعامل طبقتك اللبنانية الفاسدة والخائنة كزبائن مفلسين تريد تغييرهم حسب هندسة مالية دولية جديدة صدرت تعليماتها إليك، ولم تكن رئيس جمهورية فرنسا أبداً…!

الآتي من الأيام والأسابيع سيبيّن للناس مَن هو الصادق ومَن هو الكذاب مع أول آذان بعد يوم نصر مبين آتٍ سنشهده نحن الممهّدون لجغرافيا آخر الزمان!

بعدنا طيّبين قولوا الله…

Why Today’s India is on the Wrong Side of History

Why Today’s India is on the Wrong Side of History

September 13, 2020

by Allen Yu for the Saker Blog

Recently, I wrote a short comment in the piece India’s border policies line with Thalassa noting that “India is on the wrong side of history.” It was too “conclusory” a comment deserves to be better explained. So I’d like to take a brief time why I think India is on the wrong side of history in siding with America against China today.

I’d first like to take a larger view of history.

Historical Context

Human history has for the most part gotten better over the last few tens of thousands of years. Our technology has advanced. Our life expectancies have increased. The last 200 or so years have seen the most explosive advances. The pace of scientific and technological advances has created a world beyond the wildest dreams of our ancestors.

And if we believe that the human spirit of ingenuity will continue, as there is no reason not to, then the best is still yet to come. 90% of all scientists that have ever lived are alive today. If we can have peace and the world allowed to be free from hegemonic oppression, I’d say the future is bright for the human species.

Unfortunately, ominous dark clouds have hung over the world despite all the positive momentum of history. We live in a time of great paradoxes. Though the world is currently in a “time of peace,” with technologies and economies fast advancing, in relative overall prosperity, sponsored Color Revolutions and civil wars have been unleashed upon many nations, devastating regions from Iraq to Afghanistan to Ukraine to Egypt to Syria to Hong Kong. Economic sanctions have ravaged whole generations of peoples in regions from N. Korea to Turkey to Iran to Venezuela.

WWII by most accounts represents a righteous high point in history. It represents the defeat of the axes of fascism and colonialism. Yet, fascism and colonialism never left us. It got transformed and embedded into our new world.

The more things changed, the more we realize that many things haven’t changed. The poor and disposed of the colonial era are for the most part still poor and dispossessed. Russia is still the target of Western aggression after hundreds of years of antagonism. Even China – the presumed challenger to the West – has not escaped the trajectory of this history. Western powers – with their allies – are now actively scheming and working hard to suffocate China economically and technologically in an attempt to shove it back to a place of perpetual subservience to Western interests.

Some may argue say that Russia and China’s problems are that both had overplayed their hands. Russia had overextended itself in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, and crossed the West’s “red line” in Ukraine. China has crossed the “red line” in the S. China Sea, Hong Kong, Xinjiang, etc.

The truth is that it is the West that has crossed the line in Europe, the Middle East and in Ukraine … and in S. China SeaHong Kong, and Xinjiang.

India’s Strategic Blunder

It is at this critical juncture that India has decided to pivot toward the West. India is making a gigantic strategic mistake. Here are some reasons why.

  • It does not make sense to make an enemy of 1.4 billion people. It’s is one thing to fight a border war, but it is quite another to actually join a group of others to contain the development and growth of 1.4 billion people. The wrath and actions coming out of the U.S. against China has been truly surprising and depressing. It is against the basic rights and dignity expressed in the UN charter. Why should India join that chorus? Chinese have no animosity toward the Indian people. However, the Indian populace – fanned by an irresponsible media with much rumors and fake news – has allowed itself to be whipped into a giant anti-China frenzy.
  • America – and the broader West – will not help India to develop. Many Indians fancy that India – after America decouples from China – will take the place of China and that the West is going to help pull India out of poverty the way it has helped to pull China out of poverty. That is just not going to happen. There are a few reasons for this.
    • First, America has squandered much of its capital since becoming the sole superpower with its endless wars since the fall of the Soviet Union. America today thinks the world as set up after WWII is set against it, with much of the world leaching off America’s largess. America will have no more of it. Enough has been enough! Never again will America work for another country!!! America now wants the world to serve it, not the other way around. If Indians think America had pulled China out of poverty (Chinese mince at that notion since they believe it is they themselves who pulled themselves out of poverty), they can rest assured America will not be able to do the same for India.
    • Second, the West has come to see the world not in win-win terms, but in zero sum terms. For a brief while, the West did experiment with some version of win-win globalism. While it infused globalism with its own suffocating ideologies and rules to benefit itself, it did for a while work on a flatter world. In this “flat world,” people the world over get to exchange ideas and goods and services with each other, for each other’s own benefits, all in a win-win fashion. But that period soon ended. It’s not just Trump. It’s the whole establishment and populace. The jealousy by which the West has come to guard their knowhow, markets, and manufacturing resources for Covid-19 vaccines represents just the tip of the ice berg. The West used to think of itself as a shining beacon for the world. It had first rate technology and science that attract the world over to learn and disseminate back to the world. Now, it considers people coming to learn and bring back knowledge as “stealing.” It considers manufacturing abroad as stealing. It considers R&D abroad as “stealing.” Whatever India hopes to get from America and the West, it is not going to be good jobs or know-how. America wants its manufacturing back. It has drawn from China’s rise the (incorrect) lesson that it should never help or allow another power rise. It doesn’t want to depend on China – or anyone else – to make anything but the lowest value items. It becomes suspicious when others make its masks, medical equipment, pharmaceutical products, software, cars, computers, etc. It will think twice, thrice, about ever helping to create a new peer competitor again.
    • America – and the broader West – is in decline. The West is in decline. There is no doubt about it. The writing is on America’s economic wall – or more accurately, in its Fed balance sheet. An economy cannot go on printing money. An economy cannot stay productive with prolonged low interest rates and paper printing, where the most productive and valuable thing it produces are military weapons. Many people talk about America’s “soft power.” I say B.S. If you take away America’s military, do you think America’s “soft power” will stand on its own? No. America’s “software power” will vaporize. American soft power stands on its military power. And America’s military power stands on the might of its economic power. Recently, that economic power is buttressed in part by China (through trade). But now America no longer wants to rely on faraway lands for anything. Once it starts decoupling from China, it will soon realize how weak it economically is. An economic reckoning will come. Such a inflection point would not necessarily bad for the American people. Stripped of its imperial duties and obligations, Americans can focus on the important things that had made America “America” again. But it means the days of the American Empire are ending. The days of America helping to lift another nation from poverty has long gone.
  • America – and the broader West – is not capable of negotiation. The West cannot keep any agreement that goes against their interests. When even the slightest of circumstances change, they find a reason to tear up the agreements, with the Iran nuclear deal but one example. Whatever deal India think it is going to get, it is not going to get what it thinks it will get. The relationship will only work song as so India gives up much more than it receives. This is the Western way. Forget about getting a fair deal. Forget about even getting a good deal. India is thinking about forging a long-term deal … I say be realistic. There is nothing special about India that will make the West change. Beggars can’t demand change. The West is not going to change its fundamental ways for you.
  • India will miss the boat in the rising Asian Century. The engine of the new global growth for the foreseeable future will be China and its surrounding neighbors. No one doubts that. Many ASEAN nations – despite having intractable territorial disputes with China in the S. China Sea – have decided to join China in building a shared future. India too has been invited but it has decided time and time against joining China because of its territorial disputes with China. This is short-sighted. China and India are old sister civilizations that have long interacted with each other. The notion of a straight line fixed territory is a Western concept. When we fixate on boundaries to the exclusion of everything else, we get led down a zero-sum intractable dispute.

China’s “community with shared future for mankind”

China is pushing forward a framework of “community with shared future for mankind” for foreign relations. This is a rejection of both traditional ideological based framework of international relations as well as the cold “realist” approach.

It is a rejection of traditional ideology in the sense it is truly agnostic about what forms of government or other ideologies other nations follow. As Deng Xiao Ping has been quoted to say, “It doesn’t matter whether a cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice.” It doesn’t matter if you have a left leaning or right leaning, or capitalistic or socialist, or “democratic” or “authoritarian” government, what matters is if you deliver good governance for the people.

It is a rejection of traditional realistic approach because it doesn’t really view might as the end and be all. While China acknowledges cold realism, it also aspires for a new world order that promotes global justice – which can be summarized as true sovereignty of each nation to develop as it chooses for its people.

The way to a stable world then – according to China – is to create an environment where we can raise the water for each other, shelving all conflicts as much as possible. Once everyone is better off enough – hopefully much better off than today – many issues – including territorial disputes – will become much easier to resolve.

Why Shelf Territorial Dispute?

So if we go back to the India and China territorial dispute: sure, the two neighbors can always fight to the death over a piece of territory, but that is missing the forest for the trees. What they need – above all else – is to develop each other’s society, to pull its peoples from poverty, to provide a better future for its people. What they need then is to meet each other somewhere in the middle and to enable each other to cooperate with each other. China’s faith – which should be India’s as well – is that the benefits of cooperation will in the future outweigh – far outweigh – any territorial concession each can make. It will outweigh territorial concessions because the sky is the limit to where each nation can develop.

If you think lifting 800 million out of poverty over 4 decades is amazing, think lifting 1 .4 billion between India and China over the next 4 decades! That’s the kind of vision and possibility we are looking at!!!

The way out of today’s intractable territorial dispute is to shelf it and to focus on things both sides can cooperate on, leaving the problem for a much more prosperous generation to settle on. The important thing is to build a bigger pie for our future generations instead of bickering over today’s limited pie.

Unfortunately India has decided to not only reject that vision, but to ally with U.S. to suppress China’s win-win shared common future from arising.

From China’s view, the world has been held hostage by the West for too long. Too many nations either cannot or do not want to stand up for their right to develop. The cost of standing up to the hegemon just seems too high. Many actually want to work with the hegemony, hoping to for fleeting crumbs of good will and vague rewards, even if it means enabling the hegemon to continue its pillaging and oppression over them.

The human psyche is a strange thing. While human beings have been known to rise to the highest of braveries in defense of justice, righteousness, honor, and faith, they can also be exceedingly weak and feeble. There are too many stories of a man or woman being beaten to death by a criminal, with passive crowds and strangers watching and passing by, doing nothing.

“Give a Man a Fish, and You Feed Him for a Day. Teach a Man To Fish, and You Feed Him for a Lifetime.” The world must go beyond taking short-term benefits from the West and learn to fish by themselves. It cannot always beg for a fish scrap here and there. It cannot keep fighting against or sabotaging each other for favors from the rich.

Too many of the areas of the world with territorial conflicts have arisen from their colonial legacy. The China-Indian territorial disputes arose from British colonial legacy (others that come to mind include the Palestinian issue, Cyprus, Kashmir, Pakistan-India animosity, etc.). The world must be able to through this trap to free themselves collectively from their colonial legacy.

The West – despite all its follies – continue to be strong. It has the most wealth, technologies, and strongest military. It can buy allies anywhere around the world. It can bribe and corrupt most governments around the world. But in the long term, it cannot last. The rest of the world must learn to stand up by itself.

Freedom and Development with Strings Attached

As the world currently stand, if nothing major is done, much of the fruits of science and technology will continue to accrue only to a few nations. The U.S. and the “West” has been the undisputed leader across a wide swath of science and technology in the 20th and 21th century. By their actions throughout history and today, we know Western dominance rests exclusively on their scientific and technological prowess. If their ideological prowess, not their technological prowess, is the source of their power, why are they so quick to demand others adopt their ideologies while remaining so protective of their technologies?

I mean … have you wondered why the West would want to shove down the rest of the world’s throat their version of “democracy” and “rule of law” … but get so worked up when others learn from them knowledge about science and technology?

Today, China is the only power capable of challenging all dimensions of the Western grip on of scientific and technological dominance – at least in the foreseeable future. But just as China begins to appear to be a credible competitor or alternative, the West is mounting an all spectrum attack on China to suppress its ability to access technology and markets around the world.

Thus we see that the West’s preaching of “free markets” and “rule-based economy” has always been a mirage. The British demanded “freedom” because they wanted the “freedom” to pillage on their own terms. They know that since they had the best technology and companies, the world is there for their picking if the barriers are broken down. Hence they worked to knock those barriers down!

The U.S. took on their mantle … and demanded “freedom” … too, also for the U.S. to pillage the world on their own terms. But when their dominance is threatened, the veil of “free markets” and “rule-based” trade systems has come down too.

From the Chinese view, the U.S.’s lack of confidence about China’s rise shows how insincere and hypocritical the West has always been about the world. Many Chinese have long seen through the façade of “ideologies,” and “norms” and “rules” masquerading hegemony real politik.

China’s dreams for win-win shared future are not false ideals. After all, it is not completely devoid of precedence. After U.S. helped to rebuild Europe and/or Japan, has the U.S. not received benefits from those regions? Of course! Not only have they contributed to advances in science and technology, they also provided a market for the U.S.

But there is a critical limit about American good will. Europe and Japan were allowed to succeed – but only up to a certain level. The main value of allowing Europe and Japan some prosperity is not in making those regions better off per se. The main value was in using those regions to contain Soviet Union / Russia and China. Europe and Japan understand their roles as subservient powers – and their roles as first lines of containment against Russia and China.

A Disgruntled West

Today, with U.S.’s political system and social fabric deteriorating, the U.S. is going through a fundamental rethink. The U.S. now openly thinks allies like Japan and Europe have been “taking advantage” of the U.S. The U.S. now wants payback. From its allies, it seeks better trade deals and more “protection money.”

And against China, it is on a crusade to stop its development. In China’s view, this is a red line and truly tragic. China believes the fundamental right of every people is the right to develop. It is the right of the U.S. to want to decouple from China. But to try to form an alliance to constrain the growth of 1.4 billion, as it had already with lesser powers such as N. Korea, Cuba, Iran, and Venezuela is to cross China’s fundamental red line.

India is on the wrong side of history because it is siding with a West that is going to such levels to extend its grip on dominating the world. Some time ago, I remember seeing Trump tweet out an edited version of Time’s cover of Trumpism outlasting Trump … lasting “4EVER”! There is an important kernel of truth to that video!

The West has changed. It is now open about wanting to dominate the world through suppression instead of being the light that draws the world.

Painting Itself into a Corner

In wanting to join the Western crusade against China, India too has crossed to the wrong side of history. In the coming multipolar world, India is positioning itself in a place where it will be difficult for it to develop. The capital and knowhow that can flow from a renewed China will no longer flow to India. By rejecting the Belts and Road Initiates and the RCEP, India is decoupling from Asia’s coming century.

Losing all that, but what does India have to gain? India will not be able to tease more territory out of China by playing tough. If India believes it can hang on the disputed territories against China, so too can China hang on to its disputed territories against India. Whatever India thinks it can do against China, China can do the same to India. This should be beyond any doubts!

So no new territories will be gained (or lost) through India’s current posture. What is lost however is the space for cooperation and mutual growth. India’s rejection of strategic cooperation perceived tactical gain is India’s tragic mistake today.

China is strong enough to go along without India if necessary. It is moving full steam ahead with its Belts and Road Initiative, RCEP, CJK, etc. It has formed a formidable relationship with Russia not based on ideology, alliance, political preferences, etc. – but based on building up and emphasizing common interests between two previous competitors. China and Russia will be friends not necessarily because the people “like” each other – although Chinese generally do have overwhelming positive feels toward the Russian people – but because their leaders have worked hard to ensure that they have develop and enhance many overlapping common interests.

A Relationship of Mutual Respect and Shared Common Future

Russia and China represents the sort of respectful, cooperative give and take relationship that China believes will represent the future of man-kind. They will succeed because such thinking not because you either join China or get kicked out on the high way. No, it will succeed because it will create far more than the West’s zero sum approach.

Now, don’t think everything is jolly good between Russia and China. I am sure the leaders have had many “frank” discussions about their differences … often. Historically China and Russia has had many issues. But rather than just hyping up (or burying, which is just as bad) their past, they have chosen to work on cooperating with each – to each other’s mutual benefits.

There is still time for India to join China. For eons China and India have coexisted with each other without a clearly demarcated border. Yes, in our modern world, we all long for clearly defined boundaries. But if that’s not possible, it should not be the end all and be all! Through cooperation, India and China can build a bright, shared future together, notwithstanding the territorial disputes. Now is the time for India’s leaders to decide if petty adventures on the border and allying with a dying hegemon are truly in India’s interest. Will India go down defiant, proud, and loud – but weak, petty, and trapped in the history of time?


Allen Yu is an IP attorney in Silicon Valley, a founding blogger at blog.hiddenharmonies.org, as well as an adjunct fellow at the Chunqiu Institute for Development and Strategic Studies. He holds a J.D. from Harvard Law School and a D. Engr., M.S., and B.S. from UCLA Samueli School of Engineering.

US To Witness Another Global Support For JCPOA At UN Security Council Meeting: Iran’s Envoy

Source

US To Witness Another Global Support For JCPOA At UN Security Council Meeting: Iran’s Envoy

By Staff, IRNA

Iran’s Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the United Nations Majid Takht Ravanchi said the US will hear once again the world supporting the July 2015 nuclear deal at the UN Security Council meeting on Tuesday.

Ravanchi made the remarks in an interview held in New York, US, with IRNA on Tuesday.

In his remarks, the ambassador underlined that the US effort to extend arms embargo against Iran is in complete contradiction with the UN Resolution 2231.

Resolution 2231 [2015] urges full implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA] on the timetable set by the Deal and sets forth the next steps for the eventual removal of Security Council sanctions on Iran.

The international community is after implementation of the JCPOA and following the Resolution 2231, the ambassador stressed, adding that the UN chief and many world leaders have repeatedly expressed their willingness to witness the implementation of the 2015 nuclear deal.

Such willingness indicates that the world is against the US stance on the issue, the senior diplomat noted.

Iran and the six world powers- US, UK, France, Russia, China and Germany- signed a landmark nuclear agreement, aka JCPOA, on July 14, 2015, after months of intensive talks.

But the US withdrew unilaterally from the deal on May 8, 2018, and imposed sanctions on Iran at the highest level of its kind.

Related

Iran Is Not A Victim, It Is One of The Most Influential and Strong-Minded Nations on Earth

By Andre Vltchek

Source

Soleimani Iran Hero 26624

When facing mortal danger, its people unite, harden themselves and get ready to face invaders, no matter how threatening they might be.

Iran is home to one of the oldest and deepest cultures in the world, and it’s precisely this culture that helps Iranian people to survive the most frightening moments.

And one such moment is sadly, right now.

US battleships are sailing right next to the Iranian territorial waters. One mistake, one false move, and war could erupt, engulfing the entire region in flames. Iran is a proud nation, and it takes its independence extremely seriously.

Right now, the country is facing one of the most unjust embargos in human history. It is being punished for nothing; or more precisely, for sticking to all the points of the agreement called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) also known as The Iran Nuclear Deal, which it signed in 2015 with China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States—plus Germany, and which the United States abandoned, without providing any logical explanation. While not particularly happy about the U.S. withdrawal; Germany, France and U.K. are doing all they can not to anger their senior partner, and its leaders in Washington.

Add COVID-19, and inability of the country, due to sanctions, to buy medical equipment, at least in the West, and you have the perfect scenario for a national calamity and even for imminent collapse.

Or more precisely, anywhere else this would be the case, but not in Iran!

After receiving terrible blows from the West, one after another, Iran has never fallen to its knees. It has never abandoned its internationalist and socialist course (socialist, with Iranian characteristics), and it has preserved its dignity.

What it has managed to achieve is amazing, nothing short of heroic, given the circumstances.

If you look at the latest, 2019 HDI (Human Development Index, compiled and published by the UNDP), Iran is in the High Human Development bracket, and only 3 steps from the Highest Human Development group of countries. Which is thoroughly amazing, given the above-mentioned sanctions, embargos and constant military intimidations.

Whenever I visit Iran, I am astonished by its public spaces, cultural institutions, public transportation, fountains, comfortable trains… The country is functioning well, showing incredible grace under pressure. Its television channel – PressTV – is one of the most important anti-imperialist news outlets in the world. I don’t see extreme misery, or homelessness, there. Iranians are polite, well-educated and proud. They have to deal with complex exchange rates, which I do not understand. Whenever I pay in a café or taxi, I simply extend my hand full of local currency, and I never get cheated. Things are solid and reassuring there; I feel it and really appreciate it.

Iran is an internationalist country. Not unlike Cuba or Venezuela, who are its long-term allies. Even when injured, itself, it helps others, those who need solidarity even more. This can never be forgotten, particularly in places like Latin America, or Syria.

Hezbollah, Iran’s close ally in the Middle East, is fighting the most dangerous terrorist groups in Syria; those groups that have been injected there by the West, but also by Washington’s allies, such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey. But Hezbollah is also essentially the only social net for the poor in Syria’s neighbor – Lebanon. And not only for the Shi’a Muslims, but also for the disadvantaged Sunni citizens, for the Christians, and non-believers. Whoever is destitute in Lebanon, comes to Hezbollah, for assistance. I was based in Beirut for five years, and I know what I am talking about. All this, while the Lebanese elites are burning money in Paris, in Nice, in the nightclubs of Beirut, driving their lavish cars through the slums. And the more Iran and Hezbollah help the region, the more frustrated, outraged and aggressive the West gets.

Look at Palestine. When it comes to the liberation of the Palestinian people from the long and brutal Israeli occupation, the Gulf countries just talk and talk. In the end, some of them side with the West and Israel. The closest, the most determined allies of the long-suffering Palestinian people in the region, are, without doubt, Iran and Syria. That, everybody in the Middle East, knows, and it is only “a secret” to Westerners.

In Afghanistan, particularly in Herat, I witnessed long lines of Afghan people in front of the Iranian consulate. Devastated by the NATO occupation, Afghanistan is in despair, rated as a country with the shortest life expectancy in Asia, and the lowest Human Development Index (HDI) on the Asian continent. Tens of thousands of Afghan people have been traveling to Iran in search of jobs. Without Iran, Herat would most likely starve to death. And now, Iran is searching for ways, (together with China and Russia), how to help Afghanistan to find a political solution, and send the NATO forces packing.

For years, all the Socialist countries of Latin America, could always rely on Iran. Be it Bolivia, before the legitimate government of Evo Morales was overthrown, or Cuba and especially Venezuela. Iran has been building social housing, it was helping with oil technology, and with many other social essentials.

Iraq and Iran, two great nations, in the past brutally pitched against each other by Washington, are once again cooperating, working together. The Western occupation has already thoroughly ruined Iraq (as it has ruined Afghanistan), historically one of the richest countries in the region. However, more positively Iran gets involved in neighboring Iraq, the more aggressively the West behaves. It now habitually crosses all the lines of acceptable behavior. In January 2020, a U.S. drone strike murdered Iran’s national hero, General Quasem Soleimani, while he was traveling right near the Baghdad International Airport.

For years now, Iran has been standing shoulder to shoulder with Russia, China, Syria, Venezuela and Cuba; the nations which are openly and bravely deterring the aggression and brutality of Western imperialism.

It seems that no matter what the West tries to do, Iran cannot be broken. Despite the embargos and sanctions, it demonstrates that it is capable of producing and shooting satellites into space, or of producing its own medical equipment to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. While the nation creates its great scientific and technological achievements, Iranian filmmakers keep producing their cinematic masterpieces. What a nation!

Unfortunately, all this is hidden from the eyes and ears of the public, both in the West, and in the client states. There, Iran is portrayed as a “threat”.

Look at this irony. On April 30, 2020, Reuters released a report about the German move to ban Hezbollah:

“Last December, Germany’s parliament approved a motion urging Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government to ban all activities by Hezbollah on German soil, citing its “terrorist activities” especially in Syria.

On a trip to Berlin last year, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said he hoped Germany would follow Britain in banning Hezbollah. Britain introduced legislation in February of last year that classified Hezbollah as a terrorist organization.”

When the West says “Terrorist activities, especially in Syria”, what it really means is “fighting the terrorism injected by the West and its allies, into Syria”. Everything is twisted, perverted and turned upside-down by the propaganda outlets operating out of the United States, Europe, Israel and the Gulf.

“Terrorist activities” outside Syria, also means supporting the Palestinian struggle for independence, as well as at least moral support for Syria, in its attempts to regain the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, an occupation which has never been recognized, even by the United Nations. It also means helping Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as Latin American countries, which are brutalized (or should we say ‘terrorized’), relentlessly, by Washington and its allies.

This is precisely the logic and lexicon which was used by German propagandists during WWII, to describe resistance forces in its colonies. Freedom fighters and partisans were labeled as terrorists, in France, Yugoslavia, Ukraine.

Even the otherwise mainstream newspaper – The Independent – published on May 1, 2020 a report critical of the bizarre US scheming against Iran:

“The United States is pushing ahead with a scheme to extend a United Nations arms embargo on Iran that is due to be lifted in October as part of the nuclear deal that Washington abandoned two years ago.

To force the extension, Washington will attempt to lobby the Security Council to continue the arms embargo, which bars weapons sales to or from Iran.

But it also is making what legal experts and diplomats describe as a convoluted argument that it is still part of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action it left, and hence able to use one of its provisions to “snapback” the embargo.”

This weird political somersault has been, according to The Independent, criticized even by one of Washington’s allies, the French President Emmanuel Macron:

“China and Russia have already vowed to use any means to block the US plan. France’s Emmanuel Macron has been working behind the scenes to sabotage the Trump scheme because of what it sees as an attempt by the White House to destroy international legal norms, said a well-placed European diplomat.”

France, the UK, Germany and other EU countries are not necessarily happy with Washington’s foreign policy towards Iran, but their outrage is far from being moral indignation. Iran is big and it is far from being poor. European companies are losing billions of euros in trade, because of the sanctions. For instance, in the recent past, two Iranian airlines were ready to purchase large numbers of brand-new Airbus aircraft, in order to compete with Qatar Airways and the Emirates. Such plans collapsed, because of the US withdrawal from the JCPOA, and the almost immediate imposition of new, senseless but brutal sanctions against Teheran. Now even Mahan Air, a civilian airline, is facing sanctions, allegedly because of its flights to Venezuela, and to several Middle Eastern destinations.

Now, many are perhaps wondering, what triggered, in the West, such hate towards Iran?

There is a well-hidden (again, in the West) secret regarding Iran: “It is a Socialist country. Socialist with Iranian characteristics.”

In his latest and by all means ground-breaking book about Iran (“Socialism’s Ignored Success: Iranian Islamic Socialism”), which our publishing house Badak Merah will be publishing later in May 2020, an Iranian author and the PressTV Paris chief correspondent, Ramin Mazaheri, passionately defends the Iranian socialist concept:

“I think that if open-minded leftists would simply become aware of the facts and… modern socialist interpretations of Iran’s policies – many of which I’m sure are being presented in English for the first time – I’m sure that they would not be waiting breathlessly for the collapse of the Middle East’s greatest bulwark against imperialism and capitalism.

It is urgent that Western leftists understand that the reversal of Iran’s popular, democratic revolution would have incredibly negative ramifications for the anti-imperialist movement in the Middle East, and thus the global anti-imperialist movement, and it certainly would be the cruelest loss for Islamic Socialism, which is taken quite seriously in the Muslim world even if atheistic Trotskyism cannot even discuss the concept without resorting to insults.

And, of course, a counter-revolution in Iran would be a major blow for global democracy, as there is no doubt that the Iranian People support their revolution, constitution and unique system in a democratic majority.”

Like Russia and China in Euro Asia and in Asia, like Venezuela, Cuba and before the coup, Bolivia, Iran is spreading hope and revolutionary optimism in its entire part of the world. And it is an extremely wounded part of the world, where hope is absent, but desperately needed.

Spreading hope – that is never forgiven by the Western empire, which, like some gigantic and sadistic prison warden, constantly demands submission, while spreading depression and fear.

In the entirety of modern history, Iran has never invaded, never attacked anyone. Iran is a peaceful nation. But at the same time, it is a powerful, brave and proud country.

The United States and its turbo-capitalist regime understand brutal force, only. They do not comprehend, do not appreciate cultural nuances, let alone depth. Pity! There is so much to learn from Iran and its culture.

Iran will not attack anyone, that is clear as is proven by history. But if physically confronted, it will defend itself, and its people. It will fight, well and bravely.

The West should know: if it triggers a war with Iran, the entire Middle East will be consumed by terrible fire.

US Reportedly Tells European Allies to Pressure Iran or Face 25% Auto Tariffs

Source

00:56 16.01.2020

Under the Trump administration, the United States has widely expanded its economic leverage to renegotiate international agreements which it considers inequitable to US economic or strategic interests.

The Trump administration quietly threatened last week to impose tariffs on key European nations, just before they officially accused Iran of breaching the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal, the Washington Post reported on Wednesday.

According to EU officials familiar with the talks, the United States threatened to impose a 25-percent tariff on European automobiles from Germany, France and Britain, if they refused to condemn Tehran’s actions and trigger a trade dispute mechanism within the deal.

Days after the alleged ultimatum, the 3 countries formally accused Iran of violating the agreement, triggering a fallback option which could reimpose United Nations sanctions on Iran, thus destroying the residual accords of the Obama-era nuclear deal.

“We’ve been very clear that the JCPOA was a horrible deal”, an unidentified senior US official within the Trump administration said, when asked about the tariff threat, cited by the WaPo.

The unnamed official acknowledged, however, that the Europeans were already moving towards triggering the dispute resolution before the US threat was issued.

“The consensus among the Europeans about the need to hold Tehran accountable took form weeks ago and was driven by Iran’s escalatory behavior and violations of the nuclear deal,” the official said, according to WaPo.

It is unclear whether the so-called EU 3 issued the criticism against Iran due to the US threat or whether interests just happened to align in this circumstance, as both blocs maintain an interest in triggering the mechanism.

The United States views the mechanism as a means of reimposing full sanctions on Iran within 65 days, while EU powers see it as a necessary way to ultimately restore the deal, reduce tensions, and prevent a nuclear-armed Iran.

Abbas Araghchi (Center R), political deputy at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran, and Helga Schmid (Center L), Secretary General of the European Union's External Action Service (EEAS), take part in a meeting of the Joint Commission of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) attended by the E3+2 (China, France, Germany, Russia, United Kingdom) and Iran on July 28, 2019 at the Palais Coburg in Vienna, Austria.

© AFP 2019 / ALEX HALADAAbbas Araghchi (Center R), political deputy at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran, and Helga Schmid (Center L), Secretary General of the European Union’s External Action Service (EEAS), take part in a meeting of the Joint Commission of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) attended by the E3+2 (China, France, Germany, Russia, United Kingdom) and Iran on July 28, 2019 at the Palais Coburg in Vienna, Austria.

A New Transatlantic Relationship

Trump has previously used tariffs against the EU to win favourable trade concessions, but has yet to use them to influence foreign policy.

The policy is, however, indicative of the way the Trump administration views geopolitics, seeing the world through an ‘America First’ lens and willing to use economic leverage to reorganise the global geopolitical balance.

Opposing the Iranian nuclear deal has been the position held by the US since Trump’s election in 2016, characterizing the Iran nuclear deal as “unfair” to the United States.

The Europeans, however, have maintained their dedication to the deal, with EU leaders repeatedly saying, in line with international nuclear inspectors, that Iran has consistently been found to be in compliance with the landmark peace deal.

“The tariff threat is a mafia-like tactic, and it’s not how relations between allies typically work” said Jeremy Shapiro, research director at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

A Deal Scrapped 

Due to the recent heating up of tensions between the US and Iran beginning with the withdrawal of the US from the JCPOA and the assassination of top Iranian General Qasem Soleimani on 3 Janurary, Iran has begun to enrich uranium beyond the limits set by the deal.

The JCPOA was signed and ratified in 2015 by the US, Iran, Russia, China, France, Germany, United Kingdom and the EU.

The purpose of the deal is to allow – but limit – Iran’s uranium enrichment program, to be used only for peaceful nuclear power and other research purposes, seeing Tehran agreeing to scrap its stockpile of medium-enriched uranium, cut its stockpile of low-enriched uranium by 98 percent, and reduce its number of gas centrifuges by around two-thirds.

Iran Studying Next Step to Reduce JCPOA Commitments – FM Spox

Iran Studying Next Step to Reduce JCPOA Commitments – FM Spox

By Staff

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Abbas Mousavi said that the Islamic Republic is currently studying the next step to reduce its nuclear deal commitments, adding that all of the signatories slammed the US withdrawal from the deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA].

He said that all the remaining signatories of the JCPOA believe that the US is responsible for the current situation. “They do not recognize the US illegal sanctions on Iran, he said in reference to the UN Security Council Resolution 2231 in 2015 which backed the JCPOA, requiring to lift international sanctions on Iran.”

Mousavi further stressed in his weekly press conference on Monday that there aren’t any negotiations between the Islamic Republic and Saudi Arabia other than the Hajj issue.

“There are countries seeking to settle dialogue between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which we think are based on good intentions, and Iran welcomes this but sometimes we figure out doubled statements by Saudi officials, which contradict with the spirit of the Iranian path and the efforts of other countries,” Mousavi explained.

In response to a question about exchanging prisoners, Mousavi noted that “When we find that prisoners’ swap with other countries serve our nationals then we will carry out. We carry out prisoners’ swap with other countries from a humanitarian motive.”

Commenting on the unrest engulfing Iraq, Mousavi stressed that Iran doesn’t intervene in Iraqi affairs and hopes that the country restores stability.

Asked about Russia’s stopping cooperation in Fordow nuclear facility, he said it is due to technical difficulty and that the issue is under examination by the two sides.

Mousavi told reporters that the main reason is simultaneity of two actions; the Russians want to see if it is possible to do two projects at the same time.

Member of Iranian Parliament’s Foreign Policy Commission: We’ll Force the West to Back Down

Mokhtar Haddad

Tehran – The announcement by the Islamic Republic of Iran to increase its uranium enrichment rate beyond 3.67% has triggered various reactions worldwide.

Al-Ahed News sat down with the second deputy chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee Mohammad Javad Jamali Nobandegani to discuss the issue.

Nobandegani explained that “a few years ago Iran signed an agreement on joint action with the P5+1.”

“The parties to this agreement were supposed to implement the commitments agreed upon. The Islamic Republic fulfilled all of its commitments in this regard. The world was supposed to see a new atmosphere. But the United States under [US] President [Donald] Trump imposed new sanctions on Iran and did not fulfill its commitments. The European side was content to say that this is a good agreement and Iran must remain committed to it. Instead of practical measures, they only talked and did nothing,” he added.

“After Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal more than a year ago, the Europeans promised Iran that within a few weeks they would fulfill their obligations in the framework of 11 items, including buying oil, lifting sanctions on petrochemical companies and paying money to Iran’s accounts,” Nobandegani said. “They, unfortunately, turned out to be wasting time.”

According to the Iranian MP, Brussels and Washington are playing the good cop, bad cop routine.

“It appears that there is an undeclared agreement between the Europeans and the Americans, in which they divided the roles so that Iran does not enjoy the potentially positive benefits of the nuclear agreement, and we are seeing it today,”

Nobandegani opined.

“As a result of this behavior, we recently decided to implement articles 26 and 36 of the nuclear accord,”

Nobandegani stated.

“But unfortunately today, we see some of these countries are still behaving badly. In this context, we saw Britain’s recent act of piracy in Gibraltar … This European behavior is an escape forward. “

“Everyone in the Islamic Republic, including the political parties, the political movements, the three authorities and the Iranian people today have one voice that this Western behavior must be confronted with all force. Just as the West cannot undermine the will and steadfastness of the Islamic Republic of Iran and its people, Iran has proved that it can return to its previous nuclear activities,” Nobandegani stressed.

“Iran’s steadfastness, will and resistance will force the West and the Americans to back down,” he warned. “Iran will continue to wait for a positive reaction from the Europeans so that it can determine the best course of action.”

Nobandegani concluded by saying that the

“Europeans must prove that their decisions are independent of the US, and they know the importance and impact of the nuclear agreement at the international level.”

“If this agreement interests them as they claim, they should pay the price even if sanctions are imposed on some European companies.”

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Resistance report: Iran cuts is obligations under the JCPOA and Syrian ceasefire talks collapse once again

July 07, 2019

Resistance report: Iran cuts is obligations under the JCPOA and Syrian ceasefire talks collapse once again

by Aram Mirzaei for The Saker Blog

On Sunday morning, the Islamic Republic cut its latest obligations to the JCPOA by enriching uranium to a higher purity than 3.67%, Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Abbas Araqchi stated. He said that Iran would increase uranium enrichment to the level that fulfils the needs of its power plants.

He also noted that the country had not yet decided on the level of enrichment for the Tehran research reactor. This comes after Tehran had given the remaining signatories a 60 day deadline to offset the adverse impacts of the unilateral pull-out by Washington. Of course, Europe, being the chained lapdog of Washington with no will of its own, couldn’t satisfy Tehran’s demands since Europe doesn’t dare to stand up to their masters, so this move was very much expected.

Western media have been quick to write their headlines: “Iran violates JCPOA”. This kind of headline lays the blame on the Islamic Republic, accusing Tehran of violating a deal which Washington pulled out of. Nobody in Europe seems to be placing any blame on Washington for totally reneging on the deal, this shows how “impartial and free” western media and its political institutions are.

Meanwhile, another signatory to the JCPOA, namely Britain has decided to engage in sea piracy at the behest of Washington when earlier this week an oil tanker heading for Syria was hijacked by British special forces near Gibraltar. This is part of Washington’s economic warfare on Syria where the recent sanctions are aimed at preventing Syria from receiving and importing any kind of fuel. Washington reasoning is that if it cannot control Syria, then it will destroy Syria altogether, and London will follow Washington without hesitation to whatever hell Washington is heading for.

This was also evident in the aftermath of the downing of the US RQ-4A drone and the false flag attacks on the oil tankers in the Persian Gulf last month, when Jeremy Hunt “warned” that the UK would join the US in a war against Iran since according to the him the UK has done some “independent intelligence assessments” to determine that Tehran was behind the oil tanker attacks.

“We have done our own intelligence assessment. We have got videos of what happened. We have seen evidence. We don’t believe anyone else could have done this,” he said.

With regards to Iran’s recent threat that it will suspend Tehran’s obligations to the JCPOA, Hunt responded that:

“We want to preserve that deal because we don’t want Iran to have nuclear weapons but if Iran breaks that deal then we are out of it as well.”

Pathetic statements by the foreign minister indeed, he truly shows that the UK parrots whatever bullshit Washington spews and has no will of its own. And so two out of 6 signatories are out and I expect France and Germany to follow the same path soon as well since they are in the same vassal position as Britain is.

Luckily, the threat of war seems no longer as imminent as it was just a couple of weeks ago, especially after the downing of the US drone over the Persian Gulf. According to reports in Iran, Washington asked Tehran to be allowed to bomb mock targets inside Iran, to save face after the humiliating incident. Tehran responded that this would be considered a declaration of war and denied Washington this bizarre request. This would explain why Trump behaved so incoherently in the aftermath of the incident, speculating that the downing of the drone could have “been a mistake by an individual” in the Iranian armed forces. I believe that this shows that the Iranian analysis of this escalation has been correct all along, Washington wants to intimidate Iran with threats but wont make good on them as they know what the consequences of these threats would be. I’ve said before that the Zionist state would be the biggest loser of a potential war between the US and Iran and last week Mojtaba Zolnour, the chairman of the Iranian parliament’s National security and Foreign policy commission confirmed that Israel would indeed be the main target of Iran’s response to any kind of US aggression by declaring that only half an hour of Israel’s lifespan would remain if Iran was attacked.

Elsewhere, Syrian and Russian military commanders are said to be discussing a new offensive in northwestern Syria after reports of collapsed ceasefire talks between Ankara and Moscow. This report comes as Moscow has resumed heavy airstrikes over the Idlib, Hama and Latakia provinces, targeting both Jihadists and Turkish backed “rebels”.

The offensive is said to be aimed at expanding the Syrian Army’s presence around the Al-Zawiya mountain region and the Al-Ghaab plains bordering Hama and Idlib. The months of May and June were bloody as the Syrian Army and the jihadists traded many blows, mainly due to Turkish interference. The Turkish Army has been very active lately, using all the previous ceasefires as opportunities to re-arm and regroup the jihadist forces, thus saving them from their imminent destruction. Meanwhile this report is also accompanied by allegations that Turkey is seeking to annex the Idlib province and other areas in northwestern Syria. Fars News reported that Ankara’s continued military presence, including new reinforcements sent on a weekly basis are indications of preliminary steps taken by Ankara to permanently occupy these areas. It should be noted that Ankara has installed a puppet government in this area under the flag of the so called “National Liberation Front” (NLF), a collection of Turkish backed militants. The main obstacle for Ankara would reportedly be the presence of Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham terrorists, the main rival group of the so called NLF. The Fars News report added that Turkish officials are contemplating to have the HTS terrorist group dissolved through either war or peace to leave Moscow and Damascus with no more excuses to continue military operations in the area.

Fars News added that the interim government affiliated with the militants would gain control of the bordering corridors between Syria and Turkey and the residents of these regions would be provided with main services with the revenues of these passageways. The likelihood of this happening, however, is very slim as Moscow looks to reunite the country and Damascus would never accept such an outcome.

Despite the odds of Ankara annexing Idlib and other northern provinces in Syria, Damascus and Moscow would do well to remain wary of Ankara’s treacherous motives in Syria and should proceed with military operations to liberate these occupied territories.

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طهران تقلّص التزاماتها في الاتفاق النووي وترفع نسبة تخصيب اليورانيوم

الميادين نت

إيران تقلّص التزامها بالاتفاق النووي وتجاوز معدل تخصيب اليورانيوم لأكثر من 3.6٪ وصولاً إلى 5%، وتعطي مهلة 60 يوماً جديدة للأوروبيين قبل اتخاذ خطوات أخرى، مؤكدةً “القدرة على استعادة العمل في مفاعل” آراك” للماء الثقيل وانها ستتحرك بناء على احتياجاته”.

ايران تعلن رفع معدل تخصيب اليورانيوم لأكثر من 3.6٪

ايران تعلن رفع معدل تخصيب اليورانيوم لأكثر من 3.6٪

قلصّت إيران التزامها بالاتفاق النووي، معلّنة تجاوز معدل تخصيب اليورانيوم لأكثر من 3.6٪، أملاً بالتوصل إلى حل مع الأوروبيين خلال مهلة الـ60 يوماً الجديدة، قبل اتخاذ خطوات أخرى، منها تفعيل محطة “آراك” اذا لم تنفذ الالتزامات، معلنةً أنها سترفع تخصيب اليورانيوم إلى أي درجة تراها مناسبة وإلى أي كمية تحتاجها.

وأعلن المتحدث باسم الحكومة على ربيعي عن تطبيق إيران للخطوة الثانية في خفض تعهداتها في اطار الاتفاق النووي وقال “سنبدأ اليوم رسمياً بتجاوز مستوى 3.67 % في تخصيب اليورانيوم”.

ربيعي أوضح أن “قرارنا اليوم يصبّ في مصلحة الحفاظ على الاتفاق النووي ولسنا ملزمين بالبقاء فيه”.

وجاء الإعلان عن القرارات الجديدة في مؤتمر صحفي للمتحدث باسم الحكومة الإيرانية علي ربيعي اليوم الأحد ومساعد وزير الخارجية للشؤون السياسية عباس عراقتشي والمتحدث باسم منظمة الطاقة الذرية الإيرانية بهروز كمالوندي.

وذكر عراقتشي أن بلاده “أعطت فرصة للالتزام بالاتفاق النووي وتخفيض التزاماتنا لا يعني الخروج من الاتفاق”، مشيراً إلى أن طريق الدبلوماسية ما زال مفتوحاً وربما يكون هناك أفكار فيما يخصّ بيع نفط إيران واستعادة أمواله.

وقال إن “قرارنا اليوم لا يعني توقف المحادثات والاتصالات مع (لجنة 4+1) لانقاذ الاتفاق النووي”، مشيراً إلى أن “لا مانع لدى طهران في مشاركة الأميركيين في اللجنة المذكورة لكنهم باتوا خارج الاتفاق”.

وإذ أكد “قدرة إيران على استعادة العمل في مفاعل” آراك” للماء الثقيل وأنها ستتحرك بناء على احتياجاته”، أوضح في هذا الاطار أن  “مفاعل بوشهر يحتاج إلى يورانيوم مخصّب بنسبة 5% ليعمل بقدرته الحالية”.

وفي وقتٍ أعلن فيه أن بلاده ستقدم شكوى ضد أميركا لنقضها التزاماتها تجاهها، لم ينس التذكير بأن”هناك رغبة من قبل الصين وروسيا ودول أوروبية في التوّصل إلى حل”.

كمالوندي أوضح أن “قرار اليوم هو خطوة تهدف إلى توفير الوقود للمحطات النووية وسيتم تسريعها، وسنقوم في الساعات المقبلة برفع مستوى التخصيب “.

من جانبه، رأى وزير الخارجية الإيراني محمد جواد ظريف أنه ليست لدى الدول الأوروبية أي ذريعة لتجنب اتخاذ موقف سياسي حازم ومواجهة الاحادية الأميركية.

ظريف اعتبر أنه على الأوروبيين دعم السياسية الإيرانية على الأقل بعد فشلهم في تنفيذ اتفاقاتهم بموجب الاتفاق النووي، مشيراً إلى أن ايران مستعدة للتراجع عن تقليص التزاماتها النووية إذا احترمت الجهات التزاماتها.

Javad Zarif

@JZarif

Today, Iran is taking its second round of remedial steps under Para 36 of the JCPOA. We reserve the right to continue to exercise legal remedies within JCPOA to protect our interests in the face of US . All such steps are reversible only through E3 compliance.

Javad Zarif

@JZarif

Having failed to implement their obligations under JCPOA—incl after US withdrawal—EU/E3 should at minimum politically support Iran’s remedial measures under Para 36, incl at IAEA.
E3 have no pretexts to avoid a firm political stance to preserve JCPOA & counter U.S unilateralism.

448 people are talking about this

وكانت طهران قد أمهلت في 8 أيار/ مايو الماضي، الموافق للذكرى الأولى لانسحاب الولايات المتحدة من الاتفاق النووي مع إيران، الدول الأوروبية المشاركة فيه، (بريطانيا وفرنسا وألمانيا)، 60 يوماً للوفاء بتعهداتها تجاه إيران بموجب الصفقة، وإيجاد آلية للتبادل التجاري في ظل العقوبات الأميركية المفروضة ضد طهران.

وهذا يعني أنه بانتهاء مدة المهلة ستخفّض إيران التزاماتها الواردة في الاتفاق النووي، ما لم تؤكد تلك الدول الأوروبية وفاءها لالتزاماتها إزاء إيران بموجب ذلك الاتفاق، بغضّ النظر عن انسحاب الولايات المتحدة منه.

وكان الرئيس الإيراني حسن روحاني قد اعتبر أن العقوبات والضغوط الأميركية على إيران “إجراء إرهابي وحرب اقتصادية سافرة”.

وفي اتصال هاتفي تلقاه من نظيره الفرنسي إيمانويل ماكرون مساء أمس السبت رأى روحاني  أن “استمرار العقوبات الأميركية يمكن أن يؤدي إلى تهديدات أخرى في المنطقة والعالم”.

بدوره، أکد علي أكبر ولايتي مستشار المرشد الإيراني أن بلاده لن تبادر إلى الانسحاب من الاتفاق النووي، بل سيكون لديها رد فعل مقابل كل خطوة تنتهك الاتفاق.

وقال ولايتي إن طهران ستبدأ الخطوة الثانية غداً الأحد وسترفع نسبة التخصيب إلى 3,67 %، معلّناً أن أوروبا منحت فرصة طويلة للالتزام بتعهداتها إزاء الاتفاق بعد الانسحاب الأميركي منه.

كما أشار إلى أنه لا توجد نيّات لإيران للاعتداء على أحد لكنها لن تتنازل بشـأن الدفاع عن نفسها.

 وكان الرئيس الأميركي دونالد ترامب حذّر الخميس الماضي إيران مما سمّاه “عواقب تخصيب اليورانيوم إلى أعلى من السقف الذي يحددّه الاتفاق النووي”.

وكان الأخير أعلن في 8 أيار/ مايو 2018  انسحاب بلاده من الاتفاق النووي، معللاً ذلك بأنه”لا يمكن منع إيران من امتلاك قنبلة نووية استناداً إلى تركيب هذا الاتفاق”، بحسب قوله.

ويعقد مجلس حكام الوكالة الدولية للطاقة الذرية اجتماعاً طارئاً الأربعاء المقبل، بناء على طلب الولايات المتحدة لعرض ما سمتّه انتهاكات إيران للاتفاق النووي.

وتعليقاً على الطلب الأميركي، قالت بعثة إيران في الوكالة إنها لـ”مزحة مرة” أن تطلب واشنطن عقد الاجتماع وهي التي نقضته بخروجها منه بصورة غير قانونية وأحادية.

عراقتشي: ناقلة النفط لم تكن متوجهة إلى سوريا

وفي رد على سؤال، أكد أن ناقلة النفط الإيرانية المحتجزة في جبل طارق لم تكن متجهة نحو سوريا، بخلاف الادعاءات البريطانية.
ووصف عراقتشي احتجاز ناقلة النفط الايرانية في المياه الدولية بأنه “قرصنة بحرية، ولا يوجد اي قانون يسمح لبريطانيا باحتجازها”، مطالباً لندن بالإفراج عنها بسرعة.

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طهران تتحدّث عن شروط التفاوض مع واشنطن وتعلن 7 تموز موعد تقليص التزاماتها النووية

 

يوليو 5, 2019

البناء

أكد وزير الاستخبارات الأمن الداخلي الإيراني محمود علوي، أن دخول بلاده في مفاوضات مع الولايات المتحدة مرهون برفع العقوبات الأميركية وموافقة المرشد الأعلى علي خامنئي.

وأكد علوي، «يمكن أن تعيد إيران النظر في إجراء محادثات مع أميركا، لكن ذلك في حالة رفع ترامب العقوبات وموافقة قائدنا الأعلى على إجراء مثل هذه المحادثات».

وأضاف: «كان الأميركيون مرعوبين من قوة إيران العسكرية، هذا هو السبب في تراجعهم عن مهاجمة إيران».

من جهته، أشار المتحدث باسم المجلس الأعلى للأمن القومي الإيراني، كيوان خسروي، إلى أن انسحاب ترامب من الاتفاق النووي «أحدث جرحاً في طريق الدبلوماسية»، مؤكداً أن «أفضل ترياق لكل التهديدات هو المقاومة النشطة».

وحثّ الاتحاد الأوروبي إيران على «الالتزام ببنود الاتفاق»، لكن طهران تقول إن «التزامها به» سيتراجع تدريجياً إلى أن «تضمن بريطانيا وفرنسا وألمانيا أن يعود عليها بنفع مادي»، وهو ما كان الحافز الرئيسي الذي دفعها للتوقيع عليه.

فيما أعلن المتحدث باسم المجلس الأعلى للأمن القومي الإيراني، كيوان خسروي، أمس، أن «إيران ستبدأ من 7 تموز تنفيذ الخطوة الثانية من تقليص التزاماتها النووية، وذلك في إطار الفقرتين 26 و36 من الاتفاق النووي «.

وردّ خسروي على التهديدات الأخيرة التي أطلقها الرئيس الأميركي دونالد ترامب ضدّ بلاده، قائلاً: «الدبلوماسية والطعن موضوعان متناقضان، ولا يمكن تواجدهما معاً إلا في المدرسة الترامبية».

وأضاف خسروي، قائلاً: « أميركا اتخذت في ما سبق استراتيجية التفرد والخروج من المعاهدات الدولية، وطعنت بمنطق الحوار والدبلوماسية وجرحت الأمن العالمي».

وأشار خسروي إلى أنه «منذ 40 عاماً تواصل أميركا لدغ الشعب الايراني، إلا أن ترياق المقاومة الفاعلة جعل إيران تمضي بصمود وأمل إلى الأمام».

من جهتها، دعت المفوضية الأوروبية، أمس، إيران إلى «التراجع عن زيادة مخزونها من اليورانيوم المخصب فوق الحد المسموح بالاتفاق النووي».

وقالت المتحدثة باسم المفوضية، مايا كوتشيانتيتس، في إحاطة لها، أمس: «في ما يخص إيران، موقفنا واضح وهو أننا ملتزمون بخطة العمل المشتركة والشاملة. ونُعرب عن أسفنا من قرار إيران لأنها ستخل بشروط من الاتفاق».

وأضافت: «ندعو إيران لعكس الخطوات التي أخذتها وتعود للالتزام بالاتفاق النووي».

بدوره، قال وزير المالية الفرنسي برونو لو مير، أمس، إنه يأمل في أن «تستكمل آلية تجارية خاصة جرى إنشاؤها مع إيران أول معاملة محدودة في الأيام المقبلة».

و»إنستيكس» التي أنشأتها فرنسا وبريطانيا وألمانيا هي آلية مقايضة تهدف إلى تفادي التحويلات المالية المباشرة.

وقال لو مير للصحافيين خلال اجتماع في بولندا «نريد أن تدخل إنستيكس حيّز النفاذ في غضون أيام قليلة ونأمل أن يكون بمقدورنا تشغيلها خلال أيام آمل أن يتم استكمال أول معاملة في غضون أيام قليلة».

وأضاف الوزير الفرنسي «أول معاملة ستكون محدودة لكن هذه نقطة بداية ونتوقع أن تكون إنستيكس أداة فعالة».

وأعلن الرئيس الأميركي دونالد ترامب في حزيران الماضي، أنه تراجع عن توجيه ضربة عسكرية قبل دقائق من بدئها، رداً على إسقاط إيران طائرة أميركية مسيّرة فوق مضيق هرمز، مبرراً تراجعه بأن «الضربة كانت ستودي بحياة 150 شخصاً»، وأشار إلى أن «الباب مفتوح أمام إجراء محادثات مع طهران».

ورداً على العقوبات الأميركية التي تستهدف على وجه خاص المصدر الرئيسي للعائدات الإيرانية بالعملة الأجنبية متمثلاً في صادرات النفط الخام، قالت طهران في شهر أيار الماضي، إنها «ستقلّص التزامها بالاتفاق النووي».

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