الصراع بين موسكو وأنقرة يشتدّ.. ماذا بقي من تفاهمات؟

المصدر: الميادين

31 تشرين اول 23:07

بوتين لا يمكنه المضي بمسارات في القوقاز شبيهة بسوريا ونفذ صبره من ممارسات تركيا

تبدو العلاقة الروسية التركية وكأنها تتجه إلى التوتر في ظل صراع يشتد حول الأزمات المختلف عليها، بما في ذلك الأزمتان السورية والليبية. فهل ستطغى الخلافات على التفاهمات، وتتعمق الفجوة بين الجانبين؟

لروسيا وتركيا مصلحة في إقامة علاقة جيدة بينهما، وفي تجنب صدامٍ مباشر. لكنّ المصالح تتقاطع، فكلٌ يسعى إلى مزيد من النفوذ إقليمياً، وللدولتين موطئ قدم في سوريا وليبيا، أبرز بؤر التوتر، حيث الخلاف بينهما حول الأزمتين منذ سنوات.

في الأولى، يبدو الخلاف في تصاعد، حيث أن موسكو تضرب “فيلق الشام” المدعوم من أنقرة، فترسل بذلك رسالة مفادها أن الروس مستاؤون من تحركات تركيا إقليمياً. كأنما تريد روسيا بذلك أن تقول: “إن نقل المسلحين إلى القوقاز خط أحمر”. وفي ذلك أيضاً، تكثيف للضغوط على تركيا، لتقوم بسحب ثلاث نقاط مراقبة في جوار إدلب.

تركيا من جهتها، تعرب عن سخطها العميق، من تلك الغارة الروسية في إدلب، ورئيسها رجب طيب إردوغان يتهم موسكو في خطاب له، “بعدم الرغبة في السعي لتحقيق السلام في سوريا”.

الرئيس التركي من جهته لا يُبدي استعداداً لانسحاب قواته من إدلب وشمال سوريا، إلا بعد حلّ نهائي للأزمة. وثمّة شرط آخر هو طلب الشعب السوري ذلك، على حد تعبيره. فهل يتجه البلدان إلى وضع متأزم بينهما، كذاك الذي شهداه بعد إسقاط الأتراك مقاتلة روسية، أو ربما حتى أكثر تأزماً؟

قد يكون لنفاد صبر بوتين واندفاع إردوغان، ما يدفع في هذا الاتجاه. وللرئيس التركي ورقةٌ أخرى، هي النفوذ في ليبيا التي تمثل وجهاً آخر للصراع.

وفي سياق توتر العلاقات الروسية التركية، يأتي تراجع رئيس حكومة الوفاق الوطني الليبية فايز السراج عن استقالته من رئاسة الحكومة، ما قد يعيد الأزمة الليبية إلى الوراء، ويهدد بنسف جهود إيجاد حل سياسي.

كذلك، تتسع الفجوة بين الروس والأتراك، رغم حاجة الواحد منهما إلى الآخر، فكلاهما يبحث عن مكاسب تعزز مصالحه، وكلاهما يخشى على نفسه من تقزيم نفوذه.

محلي للميادين: صبر بوتين نفذ من ممارسات تركيا في سوريا

وعن توتر العلاقة الروسية التركية، رأى الخبير في الشؤون التركية حسني محلي في حديث للميادين، أن الرئيس الروسي لا يمكنه المضي بمسارات في القوقاز شبيهة بسوريا. ولفت إلى أن هناك قلق روسي جدي من الدور التركي المحتمل في القوقاز.

وفيما أشار إلى أن صبر بوتين نفد من ممارسات تركيا، إلا أن محلي أعرب عن اعتقاده بأن إردوغان لن يتراجع في سوريا، على الرغم من التفاهمات التي عقدها مع بوتين.

كذلك تساءل محلي: “ماذا فعلت موسكو أمام سيطرة أذربيجان على مساحات مهمة في ناغورنو كاراباخ بدعم تركي؟”. 

واعتبر أنه لا يمكن لتركيا أن تتخلى عن الولايات المتحدة خصوصاً في ظل الأزمة الاقتصادية التي تمر بها.

كما أشار محلي إلى أن واشنطن وبرلين ساهمتا في نجاح التفاهمات الليبية-الليبية.

أوغلو للميادين: القوقاز جبهة صراع بين موسكو وأنقرة

بدوره، رأى الكاتب والباحث في الشؤون السياسية التركية فراس أوغلو، في حديث للميادين أن هناك فرق واضح في القدرات العسكرية والاستراتيجية بين روسيا وتركيا.

وقال أوغلو، إن القوقاز هي جبهة صراع واضحة بين روسيا وتركيا لاعتبارات عديدة. واعتبر أنه بإمكان تركيا المناورة بين الجانبين الأميركي والروسي “وتبقى فائزة”، على حدّ تعبيره.

كما تناول أوغلو ما يجري بين أرمينيا وأذربيجان، ورأى أن الجو الاستراتيجي الآن يناسب أذربيجان لاستعادة أراضيها.

كما رأى أن أرمينيا تتحول إلى نقطة متقدمة لفرنسا وأميركا، “وهذا الأمر ترفضه روسيا وتركيا”، وفق أوغلو.

Russia and Turkey, Has Putin Lost Patience?

October 31, 2020 Arabi Souri

Putin and Erdogan: Syria, Libya, Azerbaijan, Chechnya, Dagestan, Turkmenistan, Armenia, Ukraine, Crimea

Putin and Assad have lost patience with Erdogan and the Turkish position in Syria that “was and is still the cause of all of Syria’s problems.”

The following is the English translation from Arabic of the latest article by Turkish career journalist Husni Mahali he published in the Lebanese Al-Mayadeen news site Al-Mayadeen Net:

The American campaigns and harassment targeting Russia through Belarus and Kyrgyzstan and the war in Nagorno-Karabakh continue, which has a negative impact on Moscow’s internal security and its national economy. In this context, Vladimir Putin found himself compelled to be more firm and decisive in his dialogue with “friend and ally” Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which was evident in the contents of the phone call between them last Tuesday evening, as Putin expressed “his grave concern about the continued increasing involvement of terrorists” from the Middle East in the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, “according to the Kremlin statement.

And the ‘Middle East’ here is a comprehensive term that Putin may have intended without specifically talking about Syria, after the information that began to talk about the transfer of Syrian and non-Syrian mercenaries from Libya and other places to Azerbaijan, which Tehran also expressed its concern about, with the talk of some Turkish national officials circles said that the Azeris should be incited inside Iran, on the pretext that they are of Turkish origin.

Putin’s warnings related to Syria’s developments acquire additional importance, given their timeliness, which came after a series of Turkish positions that bothered Moscow recently, as the information talked about pressure from President Erdogan on Fayez al-Sarraj and the armed factions that support him, to reject the US-German initiatives to stop the fighting and reach final reconciliation, which will mean the removal of the Turkish forces, experts and Syrian mercenaries loyal to Ankara from Libya.

This information also talked about Turkish pressure on Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev not to accept any truce brokered by Russia, America, or Iran, unless Armenia and these countries agree to Turkey’s participation in the future course of the Karabakh crisis, as is the case in Syria and Libya.

Media circles in Moscow view Putin’s style as indicating “important indicators that prove his impatience, after he was finally convinced that Erdogan will not abide by any of his promises and pledges to him in Sochi on September 17, 2018, and in the Moscow agreement on March 5 about Idlib, “the latter has over the past period confronted all Russian pressure, strengthened his military presence in Idlib, prevented the Syrian army from approaching it, and increased his massive military aid to all armed factions in the region.

He also exploited his military presence, supported by tens of thousands of Syrian and foreign militants in Idlib and the western Euphrates in general, and he succeeded in convincing Putin to allow him to enter the east of the Euphrates as well. In more than one speech, Erdogan stressed that he would not withdraw from Idlib, and from northern Syria in general, except after the final solution to the Syrian crisis, on condition that the Syrian people ask him to do so.

In his speech to members of the parliamentary bloc of his party (Wednesday), Erdogan did not forget to condemn the Russian raids that targeted the training center of the Levant Legion (Faylaq Sham), saying, “Russia’s attack on a training center for the Syrian National Army in the Idlib region is a clear indication that it does not want lasting peace and stability in Syria.”

According to the preliminary data, the next few days suggest exciting developments in Russian-Turkish relations, which seem to have entered a new path after the air operation that targeted a training center for the militants of the Levant Legion (Faylaq Sham) loyal to Erdogan near the borders with Turkey, which adopts this faction and all the factions in the region. Turkey has mobilized additional forces with all heavy weapons to meet all possibilities, while Russian pressure continues to withdraw three Turkish observation points besieged by the Syrian army in the vicinity of Idlib “as soon as possible.”

180 Faylaq Al-Sham Terrorists Killed and Injured by a Russian Airstrike in Idlib

https://www.syrianews.cc/180-faylaq-al-sham-terrorists-killed-and-injured-by-a-russian-airstrike-in-idlib/embed/#?secret=3y0nAKnx57

It seems clear that Erdogan rejects such pressure after he was subjected to violent criticism from some armed factions, who accused him of “betrayal and abandoning their cause” after the withdrawal from Morek, which led to the fighting between the pro-Turkish factions.

He will also not accept such a situation, which some will consider the beginning of his defeat in Syria, with continued Russian pressure on him to resolve the Idlib issue and ensure the future of Russian-Turkish relations with all its important elements, which began with Erdogan’s apology from Putin on 27 June 2016 regarding the shooting down of the Russian plane on November 24, 2015, two months after the entry of Russian forces into Syria.

Some military circles do not hide the possibility of a new heated confrontation between the two parties in Syria after it has become clear that Putin will not rest anymore with Erdogan’s policies in the Caucasus, which are much more dangerous for Russia, which borders the Islamic autonomous republics and which borders Azerbaijan. And Putin said in his recent phone call about this region, “Turkey is transferring militants from the Middle East to it,” they may include Chechens and Uighurs, and they are many in Syria.

Here, the bet begins on President Putin’s practical possible position in the event that Erdogan continues in his current position rejecting his demands in Libya and Syria, and most importantly in the Caucasus, with the approaching date of the American elections with all the surprises awaiting the Turkish president, who will then think about a new formula in his regional and international moves, to help him in facing Russian and European pressures, after his crisis with President Macron, supported by European countries, especially Germany, which does not hide its annoyance over Erdogan’s efforts to obstruct its initiative with Washington and the United Nations in Libya, which may require the latter to return to the American embrace, to confront all these harassments, which he seems indifferent to because he believes that he has more bargaining chips in his challenges with everyone, especially Russia, the historical and traditional enemy of the Ottoman and the Republic Turkey, a day after speaking to Putin, he affirmed his country’s determination to move forward with steady steps according to its own vision and agenda, regardless of what the other parties say and do.

This explains the pro-Erdogan media attack on Russia and Iran together, accusing them of supporting the Armenians against Turkey and Azerbaijan, which is what Erdogan talks about from time to time, in a traditional attempt to provoke the Turkish nationalism, Ottoman and religious feelings of the Turkish people.

He also seeks to mobilize the solidarity of all Islamists in the world with him, after he took a violent stand against the French President Macron regarding his hostility to Islam and Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him). Erdogan achieved such solidarity in the early years of the “Arab Spring”, as he declared himself the defender of Muslims against “Shiite” Iran and “infidel” Russia, and the Christian West, which was with him at that time and is now a sworn enemy of him.

Erdogan and Macron, Wait for more Escalation and Surprises

https://www.syrianews.cc/erdogan-and-macron-wait-for-more-escalation-and-surprises/embed/#?secret=joFH9NK4LM

European circles do not hide now their concern about Erdogan’s approach, and they see it as incitement to all Islamists, especially the extremists who live in Europe, which affects all Islamists in the world, including Russia, which has about 25 million Muslims of Turkish origin. They enjoy Ankara’s attention, covertly and overtly, as is the case with Erdogan’s support for the Muslim minority in the Crimean peninsula that was retaken by Russia, his repeated rejection of this, and his efforts to develop strategic military relations with Ukraine.

There is no doubt that this position disturbs Moscow, which has become clear that it is preparing for a new phase in its relations with Ankara, in the event that it continues its tactics that have become embarrassing to Putin in his relations with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who has also lost his patience with the Turkish position that “was and is still the cause of all of Syria’s problems.”

Circles close to the Kremlin expect that Putin will wait for the appropriate opportunity to do an “important practical something” against all Turkish moves, interests, and calculations in Syria, as it is the arena of Russian-Turkish convergence since 2016, which President Erdogan has exploited so that this square will be a starting point for all his political, historical, strategical, and ideological projects, which had it not been for President Putin and the green light granted by him, he would not have been lucky in achieving any of his goals.

The bet remains on the red light that Putin may illuminate at any moment for Erdogan after his last yellow light (80 members of the Levant Legion were killed). And it has become clear that it will repeat itself more than once during the coming period, before Putin’s patience is completely exhausted, and he is convinced that Erdogan is in a position that does not help him with more maneuvers to obstruct the final solution to the Syrian crisis, a possibility that many are betting on as the Turkish president continues to challenge all of them, as long as he believes that he is stronger than everyone else, otherwise, he would not have ruled Turkey for 18 years, despite all his enemies abroad, as he got rid of all his enemies at home, after he succeeded in changing the political system (after the failed coup attempt in July 2016), he controlled all state facilities and apparatus and became the absolute ruler of the country, and his media says that the world fears him!

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Kremlin Responds to Erdogan’s Request That Russia ‘Step Aside’ in Syria

Putin humiliated Erdogan and his entire entourage by making them ...
Putin humiliated Erdogan and his entire entourage by making them wait outside the door.

Sputnik

MIDDLE EAST 17:21 GMT 01.03.2020 (updated 17:48 GMT 01.03.2020)

On Saturday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told reporters that he had asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to “get out of Turkey’s way” and to leave Ankara “face to face” with Damascus in the renegade Syrian province of Idlib.

Russia is the only country with a legitimate, internationally recognized right to station troops in Syria, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said.

“Russia is the only country which has troops in Syria on a legal basis and at the request of the legitimate Syrian government,” Peskov said, ( Pescove Forgot that Axis of resistance is there at th2 request of Syria) speaking to Russia 1’s Moscow.Kremlin.Putin programme on Sunday when asked to comment on President Erdogan’s remarks about what “business” Russia has in Syria.

“All other military forces of other countries are in Syria in contravention of the norms and principles of international law,” Peskov added.

According to the Kremlin spokesman, all of the actions by the Syrian military in Idlib in recent days have been aimed at fighting terrorists. Turkey, on the other hand, has failed to meet its obligations under the Sochi agreements, he said.

“We know that under the Sochi agreements from a year ago, it was the Turkish side which was required to ensure a regime of inactivity by these terrorist elements. Unfortunately, Turkey has not fulfilled these obligations, and the terrorists went on the offensive against Syria’s armed forces,” Peskov said.

Peskov recalled that in addition to attacking the Syrian Army, the terrorists were also attacking Russian military units in the Arab Republic. “Therefore,” he noted, “regardless of any statements, the fight against these terrorist elements will continue.”

Meeting This Week

Peskov also confirmed that Presidents Putin and Erdogan would meet on March 5 or 6 in Moscow to discuss the Syrian crisis. According to Peskov, the meeting would not be an easy one. “This will undoubtedly be a difficult meeting, but the heads of state have nevertheless affirmed their focus on resolving the situation in Idlib and their adherence to the Sochi accords. This is important,” he said.

Putin and Erdogan spoke by telephone on Friday. On Saturday, Erdogan told reporters in Istanbul that he asked Putin about Russia’s “business” in Syria, adding that while Turkey didn’t mind if Russia established a base in the country, it should “get out of our way and leave us face to face with the [Syrian] regime.”

Russia established an airbase in Latakia, northwestern Syria in 2015 on the request of Syria’s internationally recognized government to assist the country in its fight against a broad array of foreign-backed terrorists.

Russia and Turkey reached an accord in Sochi in September 2018, allowing the Turkish military to establish observation posts in Idlib on the condition that terrorist groups be separated from other armed groups and expelled from the de-escalation zone. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has recently said that Ankara has failed to do so.

Tensions in Idlib escalated in February after Syrian artillery struck a Turkish observation post, killing eight Turkish troops and injuring several others. The situation has since turned into a shooting war between Syrian troops, Turkish forces and Ankara-backed militants. On Thursday, Syrian strikes killed at least 33 Turkish troops who were mixed in among jihadist militants, sparking off a Turkish response which included attacks on dozens of Syrian government targets in ‘Operation Spring Shield’. Syria initiated its Idlib operation in December, citing repeated terrorist attacks on army positions.

President al-Assad receives Russian Defense Minister

Monday, 23 March 2020 14:41 

DAMADCUS, (ST)_ President Bashar al-Assad received on Monday Russia’s Minister of Defense Sergey Shoygu and the accompanying delegation. The talks dealt with the Russian-Turkish agreement reached on March, 5, 2020 and the terrorist groups’incessant violations of the agreement. 

The two sides focused on the mechanism of implementing the agreement that provides for keeping the terrorists 6km away from Aleppo-Lattakia road. President al-Assad and the Russian minister also discussed the current situation in the Syrian al-Jazeera region , the US’s looting of Syrian oil and the measures adopted by the Syrian government to restore security and stability to all Syrian areas.  The efforts being exerted by the Russian leadership at regional and international levels to break the seige and to lift sanctions imposed on the people of Syria were also on the table. There was an agreement between the two sides on the joint steps and policies to be adopted in the next stage.

President al-Assad receives phone call from President Putin on latest developments in Syria

Friday, 20 March 2020 15:30 

During the call, Presidents al-Assad and President Putin reviewed the implementation of the Russian-Turkish agreements signed on March 5 to achieve stability in the region of Idleb and the recurrent  violations of these agreements by terrorist organizations in addition to the political process.

President Putin congratulated President al-Assad and the Syrian people on the occasion of Isra’a and Mi’raj night, expressing wishes that Syria would overcome difficulties it is passing through and restore security and stability as soon as possible.

K.Q.

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U.S. JOINS AL-QAEDA EFFORTS TO UNDERMINE RUSSIAN-TURKISH CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT IN IDLIB

U.S. Joins Al-Qaeda Efforts To Undermine Russian-Turkish Ceasefire Agreement In Idlib
Click to see full-size image

South Front

On March 17th, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo gave remarks to the press, and expressed Washington’s desire to undermine the Idlib ceasefire, agreed between Russia and Turkey.

“Additionally, we believe Russia has killed dozens of Turkish military personnel in the course of their military operations, and we stand with our NATO ally Turkey and will continue to consider additional measures to support Turkey and to end the violence in Idlib and in Syria more broadly.”

Thus, he alleged that Russia itself killed “dozens of Turkish soldiers”

Earlier in the day, Syrian Defense Minister Lieutenant General Ali Abdullah Ayoub was sanctioned by the US, for “perpetuating the violence and the disastrous humanitarian crisis inside of Syria.  His deliberate actions since December of 2019 have prevented a ceasefire from taking hold inside of Syria.  The obstruction resulted in the displacement of almost a million people in dire need of humanitarian aid in the midst of a cold winter in Idlib.”

Of course, the “bloody Assad regime” is, also, not the only one to blame – since plenty of guilt lies in its enablers – Russia and Iran.

“The Assad regime’s forces, backed by Russia and Iranian-supported forces, have been responsible for the continued bombardments that destroyed schools and hospitals and killed civilians, including medical professionals and first responders who were risking their lives to save others inside of Syria.”

Ayoub has been added to the department’s Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Person List and any of his assets subject to U.S. jurisdiction have been frozen. Americans are now generally prohibited from conducting business with him.

Earlier, United States Special Representative for Syria James Jeffrey said that if the Idlib ceasefire falls through, Washington and its allies may target Russia with sanctions, since it would be to blame for any such scenario.

“So our goal is to inventory here in Brussels with our European and NATO colleagues what are the military, the diplomatic, the economic, the sanctions, and the media and outreach steps we can take to encourage Russia and Syria not to do what we think they want to do, which is to break the ceasefire, push these 3 million refugees across the border, but rather to think twice.  If they ignore our warnings, if they ignore our preparations and move forward, we will then react as rapidly as possible in consultation with our European and NATO allies on what the package of sanctions and other reactions will be.”

Thus, the US is actively working to undermine the deal, and at the same time says that if the deal fails, Russia would be to blame and would be sanctioned for it.

It should be reminded that on December 17th, 2019, US Senate lawmakers, in a bipartisan vote, approved a $738 billion Pentagon budget, which included an authorization for punishing new sanctions on the Syrian government.

It also included legislation known as the Caesar Syrian Civilian Protection Act of 2019, the bill includes legislation authorizing sanctions within six months on Syria government officials, military and civilian leaders.

International energy companies seeking to redevelop Syria’s oil sector could be a target as well as any company that provides parts for aircraft, including helicopters. Even entities that loan money to the Syrian government could be sanctioned.

On March 17th, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also held a teleconference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

The four discussed various topics, and notably actions against the COVID-19 and Idlib was also discussed.

“We found opportunity to extensively evaluate many topics ranging from fight against coronavirus and the humanitarian situation in [Syria’s] Idlib, to solutions to Syria crisis, matter of asylum seekers and Turkey-EU relations at the summit,” Erdogan said on Twitter following the summit.

“In this difficult process that we pass through at the regional and global level, we will operate diplomacy and cooperation mechanisms more actively, and we will resolutely continue our efforts to resolve problems as soon as possible,” he added.

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لقد أتى القيصر…!

مريانا أمين

لتهتف قلوب الجميع رهبة: «لقد أتى القيصر»!

ها هو نراه يجلس في غرفة التحكم ليراقب زائريه، ويخالف بروتوكول الانتظار بتوقيته هو دون سواه، وكأنه أراد أن يؤكد للعالم أجمع أنه القيصر؛ ونراه أيضاً يستمتع بمشاهدة ردات فعل المنتظرين بأمّ عينه من خلال تجهّم ملامحهم…

هي ليست لغة جسد، تحتوي على تعابير وحركات وأداء بصمت بعيداً عن حروف اللغة وقواعدها في الخطابة والحوار فقط! بل هي أعمق من ذلك بكثير، فهي تغيير لمفاهيم يُراد منها قلب معادلات سياسية عن بكرة أبيها…

فعندما يبدأ القيصر بإيصال رسائله السياسية عبر تغيير البروتوكولات الرئاسية؛ يكون قد بدأ يجبر الأعين على الطواعية في حضرة وجوده وكأنّ الرسائل تطلع من أعماقه مرادها التهويل…

فهي حتماً لا ترمي إلى خلق المودّة والتفاهم كما فعل مع الملياردير الإيطالي برلوسكوني والاستقبال الوديّ المشهور الذي حصل بينهما في مطار روما حيث تعانقا بحرارة والسعادة تغمر القلوب…

فلقاء القيصر بالسلطان يظهر بما لا يحمل الشكّ أن الأول يتعامل مع الأخير كموظف لديه ولا يعترف بأراضيه وكأنه ينظر إليها كامتداد للأرض الروسية…

هذا الامتداد كرّسه بوضع منحوته لـ «كاترين الثانية» أو العظيمة فوق رأس السلطان الجالس وحده على كرسي فيما باقي الوزراء والمسؤؤلين المرافقين له واقفين؛ وكأن فجأة! لم يعد يوجد كراس شاغرة في روسيا لاستقبال الوفود الرئاسية لدول أخرى!

بقوا واقفين وكاترين فوق رؤوسهم المنحنية تُذكرهم بأنها الامبراطورة التي هزمت العثمانيين في المعارك والحروب التي اشتهرت بإسم الحروب (الروسية ـ العثمانية) خلال العصر الكاتريني القوي الذي جعل الدول الغربية والشرقية كافة تقرّ لها وتعترف بأنها القوة العظمى آنذاك…

كيف لا! وهي التي وسّعت أراضي الامبراطورية الروسية على حساب جيرانها والأهمّ من ذلك! هي التي سحقت (خانية القرم الموالية للدولة العثمانية) وشجعت الحركات الثورية في البلقان ضدّ العثمانيين وبعض الولاة الكارهين لهم في الشرق…

فهل تصرف القيصر يغيّر في المستقبل تصرف الرؤساء والزعماء والمسؤولين من أجل إيصال رسائل معينة للزائرين!؟

وهل كلّ زعيم يريد أن يوجّه رسالة لزعيم آخر ليحاسبه على تصرفاته يقوم باستدعائه إلى قصره ويغيّر بروتوكولات الاستقبال والمُراد منها أحياناً التهديد أو التحقير المبطن بتصرفات منظمة حسب ما تقتضيها الحالة السياسية أو إلى أيّ غاية في نفس القيصر!؟

US Special Forces Deployed with Al Qaeda in Idlib in False Flag Attack on Turkish Forces (updated)

Source

By Gordon Duff, Senior Editor -March 8, 2020

Communications intercepts and intelligence from inside Turkish backed terror groups tell an interesting story.  Americans are there, for the past 2 days, loads of cash, promises of US passports and families resettled in the US.

US forces are to set up ambushes and suicide bombings against Turkish outposts in Idlib in order to bring about an end to the truce negotiated in Moscow between Erdogan and Trump on March 5.

Whether video will be shot using captured Syrian uniforms may be possible.  It is also rumored that Turkish officers, some under CIA/Gulen control, may take part as well.

Some sources say the same Americans had come down from Afrin during the failed chemical attack five days ago scheduled to coincide with US envoy Jim Jeffries illegal visit with terrorist forces.  Jeffries and his party entered Idlib through Syria, meeting with Al Qaeda and White Helmet representatives while, nearby, a number of militants, including members of the White Helmets, were severely injured when chemical weapons they were planning to deploy leaked.

White Helmet and Reuters film crews were on station to provide dramatic video of a US envoy carrying dead children, a disaster when it failed to materialize and the opportunity was lost.

With a collapsed American economy and the US reeling from accusations of an attempted coup against Saudi Arabia, there was little chance that a few children murdered for Facebook was going to make an election year difference for Trump and his administration now reeling in failure after failure.

BIOGRAPHYGordon Duff, Senior EditorSenior Editor , VTGordon Duff is a Marine combat veteran of the Vietnam War. He is a disabled veteran and has worked on veterans and POW issues for decades. Gordon is an accredited diplomat and is generally accepted as one of the top global intelligence specialists. He manages the world’s largest private intelligence organization and regularly consults with governments challenged by security issues.

Duff has traveled extensively, is published around the world and is a regular guest on TV and radio in more than “several” countries. He is also a trained chef, wine enthusiast, avid motorcyclist and gunsmith specializing in historical weapons and restoration. Business experience and interests are in energy and defense technology.

Gordon’s Archives – 2008-2014gpduf@aol.com

Turkish President Erdogan Urges Greece to ‘Open the Gates’ to Migrants

Migrants gather in Edirne, near the Turkish-Greek border on Sunday, March 8, 2020. Thousands of migrants headed for Turkey's land border with Greece after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government said last week that it would no longer prevent migrants and refugees from crossing over to European Union territory.
Turkey announced last month that it could no longer restrain the flow of refugees from Syria, and opened its borders. Following this decision, taken amid tensions in Syria’s Idlib province, thousands of migrants have been attempting to enter Greece through Turkey. Police and army units have been deployed to the border.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has called on Greece to “open the gates” to migrants.

“Hey Greece! I appeal to you… open the gates as well and be free of this burden. Let them go to other European countries,” President Erdogan said during a televised speech in Istanbul.

He added that he will travel to Belgium on Monday for talks with the European Union.

“I hope I will return from Belgium with different outcomes,” Erdogan said.

The Turkish coast guard said on Saturday that Erdogan had ordered that they bar refugees from crossing the sea border with Greece due to a threat to their security.

Greek-Turkish border crisis

The situation with migrants at the Greek-Turkish border escalated in late February after Ankara announced it had opened its border with the European Union to migrants and refugees following the recent increase in tension in the Syrian province of Idlib. Soon after, tens of thousands of migrants rushed to Turkey’s border with Greece and Bulgaria to attempt to get into Europe.

Turkish police stand by migrants camping in Edirne near the Turkish-Greek border
© AP PHOTO / EMRAH GUREL
Turkish police stand by migrants camping in Edirne near the Turkish-Greek border

According to Turkey, one of the reasons it has opened its borders to the EU was the lack of assistance from the bloc in dealing with the flow of migrants. Under the 2016 agreement between the two, Ankara promised to restrain the flow of migrants into the bloc, with Brussels pledging to provide funds to help Turkey care for the refugees.

On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, agreed on a ceasefire in Idlib. Two parties also agreed to create a security corridor six kilometres (3.7 miles) north and south of the M4 highway in Syria, which connects the provinces of Latakia and Aleppo.

Erdoğan reaping what he sowed

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It is a meeting between an occupier and a staunch fighter for freedom and independence. It is but Erdogan’s crying wolf for what his hands has been slaughtering of the innocents and anti-terrorism fighters.

The silly threats of manipulating his hand-made refugees crisis are never to work this time. The refugees from tens of countries worldwide have been exploited by Erdogan himself. Thus, the fabrications, lies and distortions and empty promises are never to work more!

According to a recent analysis by  Simon Tisdall, the Guardian,  it is the Maverick, out-of-control authoritarian leaders – and here we are talking about Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey’s president – tend to think they know best about everything, and are fiercely intolerant of criticism. It is this hubris that has finally led Erdoğan and Turkey to the brink of disaster in Syria after nine years of bombastic threats, proxy conflict and direct military intervention.

Erdoğan is now isolated on all sides, sharply at odds with other major players in the Syrian crisis. Having sent an extra 7,000 troops and armour into Idlib last month to reinforce existing military outposts, Turkey has plunged in open warfare with Syria. It has attacked airports and radar sites well behind the de facto “frontline”. It has declared all Syrian  “elements” to be legitimate targets.

But what is happening now in north-west Syria is no longer a proxy war. It is a direct confrontation between the two heavily armed neighbouring states. And it threatens to draw Turkey deeper into military conflict with Russia.

It’s hard to know the facts, given Erdoğan’s suppression of independent journalism. But the truth seems to be very different. The death toll may have totaled up to 55, according to Metin Gurcan, a military analyst writing for the respected online regional platform al-Monitor. Local reports speak of up to 100 dead.

Infuriated Russian commanders – or maybe the order came from Moscow – appear to have drawn a line after weeks of lethal sparring. The Turkish convoy was hit late in the afternoon that same day. In the hours that followed, with injured soldiers in urgent need of medical aid, Moscow rejected Ankara’s request to open Idlib’s airspace to allow an evacuation, Gurcan reported.

Was Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, intent on teaching Erdoğan a harsh lesson? If so, it seems to have worked. Erdoğan is now pinning his hopes on a face-to-face meeting with the Russian leader to prevent more, costly collisions that Turkey cannot win. He will travel to Moscow on Thursday in search of a ceasefire – after Putin agreed to make time for him.

Putin’s price for letting Erdoğan off the hook may be a full or partial Turkish withdrawal from Idlib but also from other Turkish-occupied Syrian territory west of the Euphrates – and from the Kurdish-dominated north-east region that he controversially invaded last autumn. Once again, Erdoğan is reaping what he sowed.

Dr. Mohamad Abdo Al-Ibrahim

alibrahim56@hotmail.com

SAA Units Find Weapons, Caves & Tunnels in Cleanup; Erdogan’s Terrorists Breach CoH 19 Times

 

weapons and munition found by the SAA in a former clothing factory
Imagine a western clothing factory stripped of equipment & turned into a bomb-making plant.

SAA units cleaning up areas liberated from al Qaeda terrorists have, as usual, found large stashes of weapons, stolen manufacturing plants having equipment replaced with bomb-making, and more caves and tunnels. Erdogan’s takfiri have breached the Cessation of Hostilities agreement in the Idlib de-escalation zone nineteen (19) times since 00:01 6 March — though Team Erdogan only listed one (1).

Among the breaches by the Erdogan regime takfiri savages announced on 7 March, were four rockets fired into the villages of Hazarin and Aldar-Alkaber, southern Idlib countryside. The result of the bombings were only material damages.

Also on 7 March, the swamp drunk Trump regime illegally delivered another military shipment to al Qaeda in Syria; from SANA: “The US occupation forces on Saturday sent a new convoy of trucks loaded with military and logistical reinforcements to the Syrian territories in another breach of international law.

“Local sources said that the 10 trucks have entered Syrian territories, coming from Iraq through al-Waleed illegal crossing point, and moved from al-Ya’aroubyia to the US occupation base at Kharab-Aljer airport in al-Malkyia area in Qamishli countryside.”

Kelly Craft, American diplomat who breached both the UN Charter and international law in her recent visit to Turkey and her illegal entry into Syria, bragged that the US had spent 10 billion (with a “b”) dollars in the SAR since the beginning of the NATO Spring against the Levantine country, adding another $108 million to the kitty. At the time of Clinton’s SoS tenure, the Obama administration had sent almost one billion in aid to the terrorist ‘rebels.’

American infrastructure is collapsing. People CrowdFund for medical bills. Homelessness is epidemic. Nonetheless, US has spent $10 Billion to destroy Syria.

After ridding neighborhoods of human pathogens, Syrian military units — including sappers — must do a thorough cleansing of the regions, to safely remove the gifts of landmines and IEDs the savages always leave behind, before civilians can safely return to their homes, or what may be left of them.

On 6 March, another large cache of NATO weapons — including US TOWs — was found in the recently liberated Saraqib.

Army units discovered three takfiri savages hideouts in the Kafr Hamra region of Aleppo countryside, on 6 March. Where once there had been clothing and textile dyeing factories, had been deformed into weapons manufacturing sites, looted of all original equipment (the human pathogens have been looting Syrian infrastructure and selling equipment cheaply, to Turkey, since 2012) and now abandoned. Large quantities of missiles, mortars, IEDs, and even the Jahannam [hell] cannons were found where once sewing machines and textile equipment once existed.

In order for those who never heard of the Hell Cannon, we share a video from 2016, which shows how dear freedom is to NATO’s beloved rebels, how only three of its bombs destroyed a six floor apartment building while an Islam-hating Wahhabi blasphemes as though he were in a particular throe:

Some of our readers may recognize a terrorist flag stamped on one of the buildings; Syria News screengrabbed it for a side-by-side group photo showing diversity among al Qaeda factions of human pathogens, not one of which would be tolerated in any NATO country:

Also on 6 March, not long after the CoH went into effect, Syrian air defenses destroyed two drones in Jableh, which were headed to the military base in Hmeimim.

— Miri Wood

Related News

Hezbollah & Syrian Army Ground Victory in Idlib Obliged Erdogan to Fly to Moscow: Report

March 6, 2020

In an article published by RT, Scott Ritter, a former US Marine Corps intelligence officer, stressed that his week’s meeting between Presidents Putin and Erdogan in Moscow was cast as preventing a war between Russia and Turkey in Syria.

Ritter, who served in the Soviet Union as an inspector implementing the INF Treaty, considered that the meeting between the Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Erdogan, accompanied by their respective senior national security advisers, in Moscow on March 5 aimed at negotiating the terms of a ceasefire that would bring an end to heavy fighting in Syria’s Idlib province that threatened to draw their two nations into direct military conflict.

“After more than six hours of meeting, a new agreement, packaged as an ‘additional protocol’ to the ‘Memorandum on Stabilization of the Situation in the De-escalation Area as of September 17, 2018’ (better known as the ‘Sochi Agreement’), was agreed to by both parties.”

“Over the course of a week, from February 27 through March 5, Syria’s Idlib province transitioned from being ground zero for a war between the Syrian army and allied forces, and heavily armed groups opposed to the rule of Syrian President Bashar Assad, into a geopolitical powder keg that threatened to pull the Turkish and Russian militaries into direct conflict with one another. On March 1, Turkey, following up on threats previously made by President Erdogan to drive the Syrian Army and its allies back to the line of demarcation set forth in the original Sochi Agreement, unleashed a major offensive, dubbed “Operation Spring Shield” and involving thousands of Turkish troops fighting alongside anti-Assad formations.”

According to Ritter, this operation soon fizzled; not only was the Turkish advance halted in its tracks, but the Syrian Army, supported by Hezbollah and pro-Iranian forces, was able to recapture much of the territory lost in the earlier fighting.

“Faced with the choice of either escalating further and directly confronting Russian forces, or facing defeat on the battlefield, Erdogan instead flew to Moscow.”

“The new additional protocol, which entered into effect at midnight Moscow time on Friday, March 6, represents a strategic defeat for Erdogan and the Turkish military which, as NATO’s second-largest standing armed force, equipped and trained to the highest Western standards, should have been more than a match for a rag-tag Syrian Army, worn down after nine years of non-stop combat.”

“One of the major reasons behind the Turkish failure was the fact that Russia controlled the air space over Idlib, denying the Turks the use of aircraft, helicopters and (except for a single 48-hour period) drones, while apparently using their own aircraft, together with the Syrian Air Force, to pummel both the Turkish military and their allied anti-Assad forces (though neither side has officially confirmed the Russians bombing the Turks – that would be a disaster for the talks).”

“In the end, the anti-Assad militants were compelled to take shelter within so-called ‘Observation posts’– heavily fortified Turkish garrisons established under the Sochi Agreement, intermingling with Turkish forces to protect themselves from further attack. Operation Spring Shield turned out to be a resounding defeat for the Turks and their allies.”

“The agreement also focuses on another critical, yet unfulfilled, aspect of the original Sochi agreement – the guarantee of safe passage along the strategic M4 and M5 highway corridors connecting the city of Aleppo with Latakia (M4) and Damascus (M5). The inability and/or unwillingness on the part of the Turks to follow through with this provision was the major impetus behind the current Syrian offensive in Idlib. Indeed, the Syrian Army was able to gain full control of the M5 highway and was in the process of doing the same for the M4 highway when the Moscow agreement brought an end to the fighting.”

“Under the terms of the additional protocol, the new zones of de-escalation will be defined by the frontlines as they currently exist, securing the hard-won advances made by the Syrian Army and embarrassing Erdogan, who had promised to drive the Syrians back to the positions as they existed at the time of the original Sochi Agreement. Moreover, the M4 highway will now be buffered by a 12-kilometer security zone (Six kilometers on each side), and will be jointly patrolled by Turkey and Russia, guaranteeing secure passage for commercial vehicle traffic. These patrols will begin on March 15, which means the Turks have ten days to oversee the evacuation of anti-Assad militants from this corridor–in effect, pushing them back north of the M4 highway, which was the goal of the Syrian offensive to begin with.”

“While couched as a ceasefire agreement, the additional protocol produced by the Moscow summit between Putin and Erdogan on Thursday is a thinly disguised instrument of surrender, the writer concluded, “The Syrian government got everything it was looking for by launching its offensive, and the Turks and their anti-Assad allies were left licking their wounds in a much-reduced Idlib pocket.”

Source: RT

Turkey’s Failure to Adhere to Past Deals Puts New Ceasefire in Question – Syrian Ambassador

Sputnik

10:34 GMT 06.03.2020

MOSCOW (Sputnik) – Imad Moustapha, Syria’s current ambassador to China and former ambassador to the United States, told Sputnik on Friday that Ankara’s failure to fulfil some of its commitments under the 2018 Russian-Turkish memorandum on a demilitarised zone in Syria’s Idlib casts doubts on the validity of the newest ceasefire in the province.

“Erdogan’s track record regarding the Sochi and Astana agreements indicates that he has never honoured his commitments before. It is very difficult to presume that this time will be different,” Moustapha said when asked whether he expected the agreement on the ceasefire to be fulfilled by Turkey.

The ambassador went on to say that the only solution to the ongoing conflict in northern Syria would be for Turkey to withdraw its forces.

“As for the security corridor, we have to see if the joint patrols will be able to guarantee the free circulation of the Syrian people along the M4 from Aleppo to Latakia and return. Only time can tell if this is going to work or not”, Moustapha added.

On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, agreed on a ceasefire in Idlib, which started at midnight. The sides also agreed to create a security corridor six kilometres (3.7 miles) north and south of the M4 highway in Syria, which connects the provinces of Latakia and Aleppo.

Turkish flag is seen rising over town of Saraqib, Syria's Idlib Governorate
© SPUTNIK / BASEL SHARTOUHTurkish flag is seen rising over town of Saraqib, Syria’s Idlib Governorate

Fighting in Idlib escalated last week after jihadists carried out an operation against Syrian government troops. This prompted retaliatory attacks, after which the Turkish military said that more than 30 of its soldiers had been killed. The Russian Defence Ministry said that those troops were, for reasons unknown, among the terrorists when they got caught in Syria’s return fire.

Related News

اتّفاق موسكو: استراحة محاربين

لا تتخلى روسيا عن حليفتها سوريا، لكنها تراعي في الوقت نفسه وفي كلّ مرّة تطلعات تركيا (أ ف ب )

 محمد نور الدين 

الجمعة 6 آذار 2020

اختار الطرفان التركي والروسي تجاوز الكمّ الكبير من الخلافات بينهما حول المواضيع الأساسية، والتوصّل إلى اتفاق خجول يتجاهل النقاط الحسّاسة التي كانت سبباً للتوترات الأخيرة. وهو ما يجعل الاتفاق مجرّد هدنة أو «استراحة محارب» في انتظار جولات عسكرية أخرى قادمةخرجت قمّة موسكو بين الرئيس التركي رجب طيب إردوغان، ونظيره الروسي فلاديمير بوتين، بنتائج أقلّ بكثير مما كان يُتوقّع منها، ولربما جاز وصفها بأنها «مخيّبة للآمال»؛ كونها فشلت في مقاربة عدد كبير من النقاط الحسّاسة التي غابت عن متن البيان الختامي. القمّة التي استمرّت ساعتين، قبل أن ينضمّ الرئيسان إلى وفدَي الطرفين لمدة أربع ساعات، خرجت ببيان من ثلاث نقاط:

1-

تقدّم الجيش السوري وحلفائه من روس وإيرانيين ومقاومة في الأسابيع الأخيرة على جبهات إدلب، وتحرير كامل المنطقة المحيطة بطريق «M5»، وصولاً إلى جبل الزاوية، في الطريق إلى السيطرة على طريق «M4»، وهي مناطق كانت مشمولة باتفاق سوتشي

2-

دخول الجيش التركي، للمرّة الأولى، بعناصره وعتاده إلى عمق إدلب، وصولاً إلى تشكيل «خطّ نار» على جبهة مقابلة لوجود الجيش السوري. وقد بلغ عدد الجنود والضباط ما لا يقلّ عن 8 آلاف عنصر، فضلاً عن أكثر من 3 آلاف آلية من دبابات وراجمات وصواريخ ومدافع وطائرات مسيّرة مسلّحة وغيرها.

3-

دخول الجيش التركي ومعه التنظيمات المسلّحة للمرّة الأولى في مواجهة عسكرية مباشرة جوية وبرّية مع قوات الجيش السوري وحلفائه، وسقوط خسائر كبيرة من الطرفين في ما يشبه حرباً إقليمية مصغرة. وهو ما يؤسّس لمرحلة جديدة من العلاقات الميدانية بين الطرفين لم يعد ممكناً في المستقبل استبعاد تكرارها على شكل حرب أوسع وغير محدودة.

ويلاحظ في الاتفاق
غياب أيّ إشارة إلى «المنطقة الآمنة» التي كانت تركيا تطالب بها على امتداد حدود الإسكندرون مع إدلب لجمع اللاجئين فيها.
غياب الإشارة إلى نقاط المراقبة التركية المحاصرة وماذا سيحلّ بها.
غياب الإشارة إلى التنظيمات المسلحة المصنفة إرهابية وتطهير المنطقة منها.
غياب الإشارة إلى آليات وقف النار ومن سيراقبه ويضبطه.
غياب أيّ إشارة حتى في تصريحات بوتين وإردوغان إلى «اتفاق أضنة».
وجنوبه «M4» عدم تحديد وظيفة «المنطقة الآمنة» شمال طريق .

في المقابل:
يثبّت الاتفاق الخطوط الجديدة التي وصل إليها الجيش السوري، ولا يشير إلى انسحابه إلى خطوط ما قبل المعارك، مثلما كان يطالب به إردوغان.
يثبّت، من خلال عدم الإشارة، وجود القوات التركية في عمق إدلب وعلى خطوط النار المواجِهة للجيش السوري.
يوسّع تمدّد الوجود العسكري التركي جنوباً إلى خط «M4» الذي هو تحت سيطرة المسلحين، ويعطي الوجود العسكري التركي، بالدوريات المشتركة مع روسيا، مشروعية ما، فيما يحرم الجيش السوري من إمكان مواصلة استعادة المناطق المحيطة بالطريق.

من الواضح أن اتفاق موسكو حاول أن يوازن بين مكاسب ميدانية تركية وسورية. لكنه لم يعالج أيّ مشكلة جذرية كانت سبباً للتصعيد العسكري الخطير في الآونة الأخيرة، ما يجعله مجرّد هدنة أو «استراحة محارب» في انتظار جولات عسكرية أخرى قادمة. وعلى ما يبدو، فإن الطرفين التركي والروسي اختارا، لتجاوز الكمّ الكبير من الخلافات بينهما حول المواضيع الأساسية، التوصل إلى اتفاق خجول يتجاهل النقاط الحساسة التي كانت سبباً للتوترات الأخيرة. وهو ما يعكس إلى حدّ كبير استراتيجية روسيا التي لا تتخلى عن حليفتها سوريا، لكنها تراعي في الوقت نفسه وفي كلّ مرّة تطلعات تركيا (المنطقة الآمنة والدوريات المشتركة) حتى لا تخسرها وتدفعها من جديد وبشكل كامل إلى الحاضنة الغربية.

حاول الاتفاق أن يوازن بين مكاسب ميدانية تركية وسورية، لكنه لم يعالج أيّ مشكلة جذرية

كان إردوغان قد ذهب للقاء نظيره الروسي في ظلّ ثلاثة متغيرات ميدانية، وعاملين: داخلي وخارجي:
1- تقدّم الجيش السوري وحلفائه من روس وإيرانيين ومقاومة في الأسابيع الأخيرة على جبهات إدلب، وتحرير كامل المنطقة المحيطة بطريق «M5»، وصولاً إلى جبل الزاوية، في الطريق إلى السيطرة على طريق «M4»، وهي مناطق كانت مشمولة باتفاق سوتشي.

2- دخول الجيش التركي، للمرّة الأولى، بعناصره وعتاده إلى عمق إدلب، وصولاً إلى تشكيل «خطّ نار» على جبهة مقابلة لوجود الجيش السوري. وقد بلغ عدد الجنود والضباط ما لا يقلّ عن 8 آلاف عنصر، فضلاً عن أكثر من 3 آلاف آلية من دبابات وراجمات وصواريخ ومدافع وطائرات مسيّرة مسلّحة وغيرها.

3- دخول الجيش التركي ومعه التنظيمات المسلّحة للمرّة الأولى في مواجهة عسكرية مباشرة جوية وبرّية مع قوات الجيش السوري وحلفائه، وسقوط خسائر كبيرة من الطرفين في ما يشبه حرباً إقليمية مصغرة. وهو ما يؤسّس لمرحلة جديدة من العلاقات الميدانية بين الطرفين لم يعد ممكناً في المستقبل استبعاد تكرارها على شكل حرب أوسع وغير محدودة.

ــــ أما العامل الداخلي، فهو الصدمة التي أثارها مقتل أكثر من 36 جندياً تركياً في ضربة جوية سورية ــــ روسية في 27 شباط الماضي، واستدعت استنفاراً داخلياً للالتفاف حول الجيش التركي، لكن مع عدم قدرة إردوغان على تجيير سقوط هؤلاء لمصلحة مخططاته في سوريا وإدلب، في ظلّ انقسام داخلي كبير، وتحميل إردوغان مسؤولية رمي الجنود الأتراك إلى مهلكة غير وطنية، ووسط العودة الممجوجة إلى نغمة الدفاع عن حدود «الميثاق الملّي» وتخويف الرأي العام التركي. إذ اعتبر شريك إردوغان، زعيم «الحركة القومية» دولت باهتشلي، أن الانسحاب من إدلب يعني الانسحاب لاحقاً من الإسكندرون، وكذلك في ظلّ استحكام «عقدة الأسد» بالمسؤولين الأتراك، حيث قال وزير الدفاع التركي، خلوصي آقار، خلال تعزية لعائلة أحد الجنود القتلى التي سألته: «متى سينتهي يا باشا هذا الأمر؟، إن «القوات التركية ستبقى في سوريا تحارب إلى أن يسقط النظام»، في حين قال باهتشلي نفسه إنه يجب التقدّم وصولاً إلى دمشق وفصل رأس الأسد ووضعه في كيس. في المقابل، سدّد الرئيس السوري، بشار الأسد، سهماً حادّاً للطروحات التركية عندما سأل الأتراك: «متى اعتدت سوريا على تركيا؟»، مؤكداً أن العلاقات بين البلدين محكومة بأن تكون طبيعية بخلاف الخطاب المتطرّف لإردوغان وشركائه في السلطة.

ــــ أما العامل الخارجي، فيتمثّل في فشل إردوغان في حشد الدعم الخارجي له. فلا حلف «شمالي الأطلسي» وقف بقوة إلى جانبه، ولا الولايات المتحدة وافقت على طلبه إرسال صواريخ «باتريوت»، ولا الاتحاد الأوروبي كان متحمّساً لمغامرته في إدلب، بل استاء من محاولة ابتزاز إردوغان للأوروبيين في ملف اللاجئين، والتي تعكس ضعفاً وليس قوة.

محروماً من أوراق القوة، لم يكن أمام إردوغان من ممرّ للخروج من مأزقه سوى ذلك المؤدي إلى موسكو، مع محاولة تحصيل ما أمكن من مكاسب عبر وضع ثقله العسكري في الميدان عشية لقائه مع بوتين. مع «اتفاق موسكو»، تدخل العلاقات التركية مع روسيا وسوريا وإيران مرحلة جديدة من التعقيدات غير الواضحة والمراوحة، في انتظار أوّل تعثر يعيد الكلمة الأخيرة إلى الميدان.

PUTIN AND ERDOGAN SIGN AGREEMENT ON IDLIB, CEASEFIRE BEGINS AT 00:01 MARCH 6

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Putin And Erdogan Sign Agreement On Idlib, Ceasefire Begins At 00:01 March 6
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On March 5th, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Moscow to discuss the situation in Idlib, Syria.
🇷🇺🇹🇷 President received President @RTErdogan at the Kremlin. The two leaders are discussing possible solutions to the taking into consideration the aggravation of the situation in the de-escalation zone 🔗https://is.gd/yiS9RX 
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Prior to the meeting, the two leaders made the following statements:
Vladimir Putin:
“Good afternoon, Mr President.
Thank you for coming to Russia. As usual, we have things to discuss. The situation in the Idlib zone in Syria has deteriorated so much that we need to have a direct and personal discussion.
First of all, I would like to express our sincere condolences over the death of your military personnel in Syria. Loss of life is always a big tragedy.
Regrettably, as I have told you by telephone, nobody, including the Syrian military, was aware of your troops’ location. At the same time, there were casualties among Syrian servicemen as well. The Syrian army reported major losses.
Therefore, we need to discuss everything and analyse the current developments so that, first, this does not happen again and, second, that this does not damage Russian-Turkish relations, which I know that you value as well.
As you requested, we are ready to begin our talks one-on-one, and then our colleagues, who are with us in this room, will join us, if necessary.
Once again, welcome to Moscow.”
Recep Tayyip Erdogan:
“Yes, Mr President, I would like to also thank you for your welcome.
As you know, we were going to hold this meeting in Turkey but due to your ongoing work on constitutional amendments, we decided to accept your invitation and come here. Certainly, this meeting on Idlib talks is very important.
The situation in Idlib is indeed very tense. I know that the entire world is watching us today and I think that the action and decisions we take today will definitely have a mitigating effect.
This is a time when the relations between our countries have indeed reached a peak. Of course, this concerns the defence industry, trade and other areas; they continue developing.
We believe and say that we need to make progress in this area. In fact, this is our biggest task, to move forward and develop our relations. I believe we will succeed.
Once again, I would like to thank you for your welcome.”
Erdogan previously said he had asked Putin to “step aside” in Syria and allow him to deal with Damascus “face to face”, while Syrian President Bashar Assad stated in an interview just one day before the Putin-Erdogan meeting that the conflict between the Turkish people and the Syrian people is “illogical”.
Around the same time that the meeting was taking place, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reiterated Turkey’s right to self-defense in connection with the situation in Idlib, during a press briefing.
“We are firmly convinced that our NATO partner, Turkey, has every right to defend itself against the risks created in Syria by Assad, Russians and Iranians,” said Pompeo, answering a question about how he assesses “the partnership between Russia and Turkey.”
He recalled that a few days ago, US President Donald Trump held talks with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan. The US Secretary of State did not comment on the ongoing negotiations between the leaders of Turkey and Russia in Moscow.
“The Turkish government has requested a number of things, we are evaluating all these requests. Our team (the US State Department) together with the Department of Defense team are deciding how best to reduce violence and a larger world there and stop the ongoing large-scale humanitarian crisis,” said Pompeo.
Catherine the Great, served as empress of for more than three decades in the late 18th century. She captured lots of Ottoman territories.
LMAO, Russians never stop trolling.🤣
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The two leaders spoke tete-a-tete for approximately 3 hours, and then they were joined by their respective delegations. The entire negotiation ended after 5 hours 40 minutes.
Erdoğan ve Putin başkanlığında Moskova’da yapılan heyetler arası görüşme sona erdi. Baş başa ve heyetler arası görüşmeler 5 saat 40 dakika sürdü.
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The briefing, following the negotiations can be seen here:
Erdogan Invited Putin to Visit Turkey to Celebrate Anniversary of Bilateral Relations. Putin, on his part said that Russia, Turkey agreed on common document on settlement in Syria.
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he has negotiated an agreement to resolve the ongoing tensions in Idlib province with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The two countries have agreed following “uneasy, but productive” talks that they should not reduce their efforts in the fight against terrorism.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that his country will be sending additional forces to Idlib province under a new agreement with Russia, but that the status of Turkey’s Operation Spring Shield will be “changed”. Erdogan added that starting at midnight between 5 and 6 March a ceasefire regime will be established in Idlib for both Turkish and Syrian forces. At the same time, the Turkish president said that the army reserves the right to respond to any actions of the Syrian forces.
It includes the following items:
  1. The cessation of all hostilities along the existing line of contact from midnight on March 6th;
  2. Russia and Turkey create a six-kilometer-long security corridor north and south of the M-4 highway in Syria
  3. Russia and Turkey agreed on March 15th to begin joint patrols along the M-4 highway in Syria.
“It is inevitable to establish a new status in Idlib after the sad events of the regime’s aggression targeting our soldiers,” President Erdogan said.
“The spirit of cooperation between us and Russia has made an unprecedented contribution to international efforts to end the conflict in Syria,” President Erdogan explained.
The entire document is to be published in English, Russian and Turkish “soon,” when more details will follow. It is showing, however, that a direct military intervention by Turkey is unlikely to work, and Erdogan went to the negotiating table.
The following map shows the gains and setbacks of Turkish forces and the “moderate opposition” have made since Turkish operation Spring Shield began.
Putin And Erdogan Sign Agreement On Idlib, Ceasefire Begins At 00:01 March 6
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The new Turkish-Russian agreements have several important implications for the situation in Greater Idlib:
  • Turkey declared that it will keep forces in the region (It cannot withdraw them because this will mean a total surrender and lead to a full-scale political crisis in Turkey itself), but officially accepted all the gains made by the Syrian Army since September 2018 (Sochi agreements). Earlier, the top Turkish leadership declared that the goal of the Turkish military operation in Idlib is to push the Syrian Army back from all this area.
  • The Syrian Army kept control of the M5 highway and significantly improved its military position in the region.
  • The terrorists, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and other al-Qaeda groups, still remian outside the framework of the ceasefire deal and legal target in the framework of it.
  • The agreed buffer zone (M4) is located inside the militant-held area. It can be created and joint patrols can be launched only if radical militants (all militants that control the area) are removed from there. It’s hard to imagine how Russian Military Police vehicles can be deployed there safely in any another case. Therefore, if militants are not removed, this will create conditions f0r another operation in the area fully in the framework of the agreement signed by Turkey.
  • Turkey publicly accepted that it is not capable to defeat the Syrian Army without suffering unacceptable losses. So, Damascus and its allies officially won in this stage of the conflict.
  • Both sides declared that they support a political solution of the conflict. However, the March 5 deal and another ceasefire are only a half measure to achieve this goal. A political solution is not possible as long as terrorist groups (backed by Turkey) present in the area. This creates conditions for further tensions and escalations.
On January 14, 2020, SF released the following video analysis on the Idlib ‘ceasefire efforts’ and their results for the anti-terrorism fight in Greater Idlib. It still remains useful to explain the situation in general:
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Quick update on the Turkey vs Syria, Russia and Iran

The Saker

March 02, 2020

Quick update on the Turkey vs Syria, Russia and Iran

Dear friends,

Just a quick update: as I predicted, the Syrian forces have retaken most of the strategically crucial town of Saraqib.   Russia has confirmed that Russian military police units have already entered the town.

This crucial town was lost by the Syrians, largely due to the very effective use of attack drones by the Turks which the Syrians clearly did not anticipate.  However, after an initial streak of painful losses, the Syrian air defenses, probably assisted by Russian experts, have now adapted and retaken the control of the airspace over Idlib and scores of Turkish drones have now been shot down.

By the way, there was a hilarious incident when the Turkish-backed Takfiris declared that they had shot down a Su-24.  After it became clear that what they really shot down was a Turkish drone, the Takfiris declared that it was a Syrian or Russian drone.  Problem: on the wreckage you can easily see Turkish markings 🙂

In other news, it appears that there will be no four-way meeting in Istanbul, but that Erdogan will travel directly to Moscow to meet with Putin.  Most observers believe that Erdogan is desperate and that he will beg Putin to agree to some kind of deal.

I hesitate to make predictions when mentally unstable characters like Erdogan are involved, but my best guess is that Russia will agree to some kind of deal, but that this deal with reflect the failure of the current Turkish military operation.  Specifically, I believe that Saraqib shall be fully liberated and that the Turks will have to de facto relinquish control over the M4 highway (some kind of “jointly administered neutral zone” might be agreed upon to place a small face-saving figleaf over Erdogan’s pride).  Finally, Russia will have to give security guarantees to the Turks, including a promise not to arm the Kurds (with whom the Russians have a complex and ambiguous relationship anyway).

Turkey does have the means to send in more forces into Idlib which, when combined with the various “good” and “bad” terrorist forces Turkey support could give the Turks a strong quantitative superiority over the Syrians.  The Turks also have a qualitative advantage in some areas (as shown by their effective drone and F-16 attacks).  But should Turkey decide to go on a major offensive, then you can expect the Russian task force in Syria to engage attacking Turkish aircraft (fix and rotary wing, and drones) and if that is not enough, you will see Russian cruise missiles do to the Turks what they did to the Takfiris in the early phases of the Russian intervention in Syria: decapitate their command and control, then turn to the supply routes.

The Syrian military has the advantage of experience and they know that when needed Russian, Iranian and Hezbollah forces will support them (as just happened in Saraqib).  The big disadvantage of the Syrians is (and has been since the beginning of the war) their numerical inferiority.  However, the Russians are providing both equipment and training to the Syrians, who apparently learned quickly and very well, and the newly reorganized Syrian units are much stronger than their Turkish counterparts.

Simply put, if the Turks try to move south, they will be countered not only by the Syrians, but also by the Russians, the Iranians, Hezbollah and even possibly the Kurds.  10 years ago such an operation would be a “maybe”.  But in 2020 it is a “no way”.

Much now depends on what happens in Moscow on the 5th (next Thursday already).

I will try to take as much of the week off as I can (for religious and family reasons), but if something important happens in Moscow, I will try to analyze it here either on Thursday evening or on Friday.

Stay tuned.

Kind regards

The Saker

SYRIAN FORCES COUNTER-ATTACK NEAR SARAQIB AS AIR WAR HEATS UP OVER IDLIB (MAPS, VIDEOS)

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On March 1, the Syrian Army and Hezbollah launched a counter-attack on Turkish-led forces in the area of Saraqib retaking the villages of Jawbas, San, Dadikh and Kafr Battikh, and forcing Turkish-backed militants to retreat from the eastern part of Saraqib itself.
According to pro-government sources, Syrian artillery and air forces were carrying out an active bombing campaign in support of this attack. Russian warplanes were also involved.

Though situation remains fluid as operations continue, reported situation from ground so far is as shown on map. SAA has regained control of almost 50 % of total area lost recently around



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These developments took place amid the heating up air war over Greater Idlib. Turkish state media reported that Turkish artillery and drones had targeted Al-Nayrab military airport operated by the Syrian military near Aleppo city.
“The Turkish Armed Forces targeted the Syrian regime’s military airport in Aleppo, according to local sources on Sunday.
Al-Nayrab military airport, on the outskirts of Aleppo city center, was known as one of the bases that the Assad regime frequently used in the attacks against the Turkish Armed Forces and civilians in Idlib, northwestern Syria.
The Turkish Armed Forces used armed drones and fire support vehicles to target the airport, making it out of service, the sources said.
The regime army transported aircraft and equipment to Al-Nayrab from the Kuweires military airport in eastern Aleppo, which was targeted by Turkish forces the previous day, it added.
Local sources said the regime’s range of action has been further restricted as the Al-Nayrab military airport has been made unusable,” Anadolu Agency reported.
Nonetheless, it should be noted that Al-Nayrab military airport is mostly used as a logistical hub for ground forces, rather than the military airbase.
At the same time, Syrian air defense repelled a drone attack on Hama Airbase and intensified its operations against Turkish combat drones operating in the area. According to Russian media, Syrian forces shot down 6 Turkish UAVs. Syrian media claims that 3 Turkish UAVs were downed. However, the visual evidence allows to confirm one Turkish combat UAV (Anka) downed in eastern Idlib.

Breaking. Air defenses activated tonight as Airbase is under drone attack. Unclear if Rebel or armed UAVs.
According to Russian state media, Turkish F-16 fighter jets two times violated Syrian airspace over Idlib on March 1. This version says that Turkish fighter jets were responsible for downing of 2 Syrian Su-24 earlier today. Syrian pilots safely ejected from the warplanes and landed in the government-held area.
Later on March 1, reports appeared that a third Syrian warplane was targeted by Turkish forces. However, these reports remain unconfirmed.
The recent developments demonstrate that if Turkey continues avoiding employing its own troops in a direct fighting, its forces appear to be not able to deliver a swift and devastating blow to the Syrian Army and achieve the goal declared by its top leadership: to force Syrian troops to retreat from all the areas liberated from al-Qaeda since October 2018. It is likely that Turkey is trying to deliver as much damage as it could to strengthen its negotiating positions before March 5, when Erdogan is set to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the situation in the region. At the same time, Turkey is trying to get support from the EU by sending migrants to Europe and blackmailing the bloc with a new migration crisis.

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Erdogan Says Asked Putin to ‘Step Aside’ to Allow Turkey to Deal With Syria ‘One on One’ – Reports

Sputnik

 29.02.2020

The Russian and Turkish presidents spoke by telephone on Friday amid the escalating tensions in Idlib, where the Syrian Army has been entangled in a shooting war with Turkish troops and Ankara-backed militants in recent weeks.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said that he asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to leave Ankara “face to face” with Syrian authorities in the conflict over Idlib during Friday’s talks.

“I asked Mr. Putin: ‘What’s your business there? If you establish a base, do so but get out of our way and leave us face to face with the regime,” Erdogan said, speaking to reporters in Istanbul, his comments cited by AFP.

Erdogan also warned that the “Syrian regime” would “pay the price” for the deaths of Turkish troops in Idlib, and said that if Russia left Damascus one-on-one with Turkey, “we will do what is necessary.”

Erdogan confirmed that Turkey had opened its borders with the European Union for Syrian refugees, and that some 18,000 migrants had already crossed the border into the EU. According to the Turkish president, Ankara could not “handle a new refugee wave” from Syria. Earlier, Turkish officials told media that Ankara had opened its borders with the European bloc amid the escalating conflict in Idlib.

“We have been saying for a long time that we are not obligated to accept such a number of refugees. You promised us assistance, but are doing nothing, so we opened our borders yesterday. 18,000 refugees have already passed through, and today this number will be 25,000-30,000, and we will not close our doors because the EU must keep its word,” Erdogan said, presumably referring to the March 2016 Turkey-EU migrant deal.

Putin and Erdogan spoke by telephone amid tensions in Idlib, the restive Syrian province where tens of thousands of militants remain concentrated, and where dozens of Syrian and Turkish troops have now been killed amid weeks of clashes.

Also on Saturday, the Russian Foreign Ministry reported that the recent talks with Turkey had led to the consideration of “concrete steps” aimed at achieving “lasting stability in the Idlib de-escalation zone.”

“Both sides confirmed their goal to reduce tensions on the ground while continuing the fight against terrorists,” the Ministry said in a statement.

Earlier, in an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council on the situation in Idlib on Friday, Russian Ambassador to the UN Vasily Nebenzya emphasized that the Syrian Army had every right to eliminate terrorists in Idlib and anywhere else on its sovereign territory.

“In recent months,  the terrorists who captured Idlib, mainly from [al-Nusra*] had dramatically increased attacks against civilians in neighbouring settlements and the Syrian military. In response to the constant violations of the ceasefire inside the Idlib de-escalation zone, the Syrian Army of course has every right to respond and to squash the terrorists,” Nebenzya said.

The Russian diplomat stressed that Russia could not restrict Syria from fulfilling the requirements on fighting terrorism set out in the Security Council’s own resolutions, especially since Damascus was doing so on its own territory. He added that he hoped that a return to the Astana agreements could help prevent a repetition of the series of events which led to the deaths of Turkish and Syrian troops.

For his part, Syrian Ambassador to the UN Bashar al-Jaafari accused Turkey of aggression in Syria, and alleged that Ankara was using its Idlib observation posts to provide support for terrorists. The diplomat stressed that Syria would do everything necessary to protect its citizens and defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Idlib Crisis Deepens

Simmering tensions in the Idlib de-escalation zone were ramped up again on Thursday, when Nusra terrorists initiated a large-scale attack on Syrian Army positions. Syrian troops returned fire, with at least 33 Turkish troops killed in response. On Friday, the Russian millitary said the Turkish forces caught in the crossfire should not have been there in the first place. Turkish media later reported that the Turkish army had destroyed some 130 pieces of Syrian military hardware in recent weeks.

On Friday, Greek media reported that Athens had vetoed a planned NATO statement expressing solidarity with Ankara over the deaths of the Turkish troops. Greece reportedly made the decision despite opposition from the US, the UK, France and Germany.

Russia has repeatedly accused Turkey of proving unable to fulfill several key obligations related to the Idlib de-escalation zone, including the requirement to separate armed militants ready for peace talks with Damascus from jihadists.

The Syrian Army began an offensive in the Idlib de-escalation zone in late 2019 following repeated terrorist attacks on Syrian forces, which claimed the lives of dozens of Syrian troops. Tensions in Idlib escalated dramatically earlier this month after a Syrian artillery strike killed over half-a-dozen Turkish troops at one of the twelve observation posts Turkey has dotting the Syrian province. The attack prompted an escalatory response by Ankara, and threats of a full-blown military campaign.

Along with the tens of thousands of armed rebels and jihadists, Idlib is home to as many as three million civillians, and is the most populous Syrian territory outside Damascus’s control.


* A terrorist group outlawed in Russia and many other countries.

Russian analysts: Erdogan’s arrogance could lead to large-scale war that would harm Turkey’s interests

ST

 Saturday, 29 February 2020 20:46 

Moscow,(ST)- Boris Dolgov, senior researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences has stressed the need to put an end to the crimes and arrogance of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Syria’s north.

He stressed in an interview with a SANA correspondent in Moscow today that the Turkish regime’s actions in Idlib are unprecedented and they violate all international agreements concluded previously between Russia and Turkey as well as all international conventions. He stressed that escalation in that region threatens of the outbreak of a large-scale war that harms the interests of Turkey and the Turkish people in the first place.

In turn, member  of the Russian Writers Union, Khaled Elias pointed out in a similar interview that Erdogan and his supporters are the ones who embraced and sponsored terrorists from all over the world and who stood behind this brutal attack on Syria.

 He added that Turkish regime’s mercenaries in Aleppo behave as thieves because they have dismantled and stole Aleppo’s factories and industrial workshops and smuggled them to Turkey with the knowledge of Erdogan himself.

Elias indicated that the terrorists and their Turkish sponsors are currently using shoulder-fired US anti-aircraft missiles systems in Syria, stressing that the Syrian Arab army’s response to the Turkish attacks is a fair response, because it was the Turks who crossed the border, entered Syrian territory and supported the terrorists there.

For his part, Alexander Kuznetsov, Deputy Director of the Russian Institute for Political and Military Analysis, stressed that the Turkish actions are rejected from the viewpoint of international law because Turkey launches hostile actions against a neighboring country and interferes in its affairs.

 The Russian expert called for obligating Turkey to implement what was agreed upon with Russia, pointing out that the Turkish soldiers who were killed in Idlib were participating in the terrorists’ combat operations on the Syrian lands, and this behavior violates Syria’s  sovereignty.

Amal Farhat

خيارات أردوغان الصعبة بعد القصف الروسيّ

المصدر

لم تمضِ ساعات على دخول مسلحي الفصائل المسلّحة مدعومين بمدرعات وجنود أتراك حتى جاء الرد الروسيّ صاعقاً في سراقب التي قتل فيها حوالي 40 جندياً تركياً، وأصيب ضعف هذا العدد بقصف جوي روسي على مواقع للجيش التركي في ريف حلب.

وكانت الأجواء قد توترت بين تركيا وروسيا بعد فشل الاجتماع الأمني بين الطرفين في موسكو وبعدما رفضت تركيا الانسحاب من سراقب التي احتلتها بهجوم مفاجئ ليل الأربعاء – الخميس. وكان الخلاف على كل شيء تقريباً، حيث طلب الروس انسحاب تركيا بشكل كامل من سورية، بينما تحجج الأتراك بمخرجات سوتشي قبل أن يستعيد أردوغان في تصريحاته الصحافية على مدار الساعة اتفاقية أضنة لتشريع وجوده العسكريّ في سورية.

وفور حصول القصف اجتمع الكابين الأمني والعسكري التركي بشكل عاجل، وأمرت السلطات التركية بإغلاق مواقع التواصل الاجتماعي تويتر وفيسبوك وانستغرام. فيما سارعت مواقع الأخبار العالمية لنقل أخبار ما يحصل، حيث اعتبرت مواقع فرنسية أنها المرة الأولى منذ الحرب الكورية تقتل فيها روسيا جنوداً من حلف الناتو.

أردوغان الذي لعب على مبدأ حافة الهاوية مع بوتين وصل إلى مفترق طرق خطيرة على وجوده السياسيّ والجسديّ، فلا هو قادر على شنّ حرب على روسيا ولا هو قادر على إظهار خذلانه للإسلاميين الذين استغلهم طيلة عشر سنوات في الحرب على سورية، وقد يكون سيناريو خوض معركة محدودة مع روسيا مطروحاً لديه حتى ييرئ نفسه أمام الجماعات الإرهابية المسلحة التي رعاها وساندها، لكنه أيضاً هنا سوف يقع في مأزق كبير مع الجيش المفقودة معه كل أنواع الثقة. فالجيش لن يقبل بزجّه في حرب مع روسيا تلبية لرغبات أردوغان والوضع الشعبي والاقتصادي التركي لا يحملان مغامرات كهذه.

كان لافتاً تصريح أحد زعماء المعارضة في تركيا قبل أيام، عندما قال نستعدّ لتسلّم الحكم وخروج أردوغان قريباً جداً.

لماذا يحارب الروس الأتراك في إدلب؟

د.وفيق إبراهيم

يشتدّ القتال الروسيّ – التركيّ في منطقة إدلب السورية، فتدعم روسيا بالإسناد الجوي والتدخل البري، الجيش العربي السوري. فيما تنخرط قوات الاحتلال التركيّ إلى جانب تنظيمات إرهابية محلية عالمية بالمباشر.

كان الرئيس التركي أردوغان يعتقد أن تحسّن علاقات بلاده مع روسيا، اقتصادياً يسمح له ببناء دور كبير في سورية انطلاقاً من احتلاله أراضٍِي سورية واسعة، وارتباط مجموعات ارهابية بقوات بلاده. هذا بالاضافة الى علاقاته بالاميركيين وحلف الناتو وحاجة الاوروبيين الى دوره المعادي للدولة السورية.

مع دعم غير مباشر من «اسرائيل» التي تعتقد ان الدور التركي في سورية كفيل بتفتيتها.

لذلك تسانده بشنّ غارات على الجيش السوري وحلفائه لدعم الجيش التركي في وضعه المتراجع، كما أن بلدان الخليج المتناقضة معه لا تقبل بهزيمة في ادلب، وتفضل وضعية «ستاتيكو» كأمر واقع يبقي القتال مفتوحاً لاستنزاف سورية وتركيا في آن معاً.

أردوغان اذاً في وضع مزرٍ، فقواته التركية المنغمسة في القتال الى جانب الإرهابيين يسقط أفرادها قتلى بمعدلات غير مسبوقة منذ احتلالها أراضي سورية بدءاً من 2016، ويجد نفسه سياسياً من دون دعم غربي ملموس عسكرياً.

هذه الوضعية المتراجعة لأردوغان تشجع الروس على الاستفادة منها ومحاولة خنق الدور التركي في سورية الى معدل يسبق الموت مباشرة.

هناك أسباب مباشرة وأخرى كامنة تتحكم بهذا الإصرار الروسي على حسم القسم الأساسي من ادلب، واولها ان صعود الدور الروسي في سورية لا يكون إلا بقدرته على تدجين طموحات اردوغان السورية، وذلك للوصول إلى مجابهة الدور الأميركي النفطي والجيوسياسي في شرقي الفرات والتنف.

ويعتقد الكرملين الروسي أنه في سباق حاد مباشرة مع الأميركيين بتطبيق قانونهم المسمّى «قيصر» لخنق سورية بإلغاء كامل علاقاتها الاقتصادية في الداخل مع الخارج.

لذلك يعتبر الروس أن فتح طريقي أم 4 وأم 5 من حلب الى اللاذقية وحماة وحمص ودمشق، ضروري لمجابهة «قيصر» الترامبي، وذلك بفتح علاقات اقتصادية واجتماعية بين نحو عشرة ملايين سوري من الشمال في حلب حتى البحر المتوسط والحدود الأردنية والعراقية.

بالاضافة إلى أن هذا الإنجاز يعمق من الاستقرار السياسي للدولة السورية واضعاً كافة مدنها الأساسية في إطارسيادتها.

هناك جانب كامنٌ لا يتكلم به القيصر الروسي ويلاحظه الاميركيون عاملين على إجهاضه بكل قواهم، ويتعلق بالطموح الروسي الى العودة الى الإقليم. وهذا غير ممكن إلا بتحرير سورية من الأتراك والإرهاب، والدور الأميركي في سورية.

فعندما تتحرّر الحدود السورية الشمالية مع تركيا والشرقية والجنوبية مع الأميركيين يصبح بوسع الروس الانطلاق نحو العراق واليمن ولبنان ومصر والخليج، وامتداداتهم العربية والإسلامية، يبيعون سلاحهم يطوّرون اقتصادهم، يذهبون الى تركيب معادلة تشارك في حروب الاستحواذ على الغاز بما هو الطاقة الأساسية للعقود المقبلة وذلك انطلاقاً من كونها على رأس لائحة منتجي الغاز في العالم تليهم ايران وهي حليفة لهم. فيما تحتل قطر المرتبة الثالثة لكن الاكتشافات الجديدة قد تحدث تعديلات في هذه التراتبية، فهناك بلدان تأكد البحث العلمي وجود كميات هائلة من الغاز فيها، على رأسها سورية وليبيا والسعودية ومصر والجزائر واليمن ولبنان، وبلدان أخرى في أميركا الجنوبية.

ولأن الروس يربطون بين الصعود السياسي ذي الطبيعة الجيوبوليتيكية وبين الازدهار الاقتصادي فسارعوا الى عقد اتفاقات لتزويد الغاز الروسي لآجال طويلة مع الصين والمانيا واوكرانيا وتركيا.

لجهة أوكرانيا فلديها خطان، واحد لاستهلاكها الداخلي والثاني لأوروبا، وكذلك حال تركيا ويبدو أن الروس تحسّبوا لضغط تركيا عليهم في موضوع سورية باستخدام خطوط الغاز الروسيّة العابرة أراضيهم، فاستداروا نحو أوكرانيا لبناء خطوط غاز روسية إليها. فتشكل بديلاً لأي استثمار سياسي تركي في هذا الصدد.

لذلك تدخل روسيا حرب إدلب بوضوح لا يحتمل المراوغة التركية متأكداً من محدودية الدعم الأميركي – الأوروبي الخليجي الإسرائيلي لاردوغان، كما انها لم تعد تقبل بتهديدات تركيا بإلغاء اتفاقات سوتشي وآستانا. فالشرعيّة الوحيدة في سورية هي لدولتها فقط، اما الاتفاقات والمؤتمرات فتبقى ناقصة الى ان تعترف بها الدولة صاحبة السيادة.

وهذا ما بدأ يظهر بشكل علني عبر الخطاب الرسميّ السوري الذي يصف تركيا في سورية بالاستعمار.

بالمقابل يواصل اردوغان الضغط على الحلف الغربي لدعمه، ملاحظاً سقوط خطابه المذهبي في سورية. فعاد الى تأجيج اعلامي لا يردد الا أن تركيا تجابه سياسات التغيير الديموغرافي وميليشيات مذهبية مدعومة من محاور طائفية إقليمية (ايران).

وهذه من الوسائل التركية التقليدية لإثارة الفتن الطائفية في سورية لاستثمار مناطقها وتجزئتها.

يتبين بالاستنتاج ان لروسيا مصلحة فورية في تقليص الدور التركي لتقوية حليفتها الدولة السورية من ناحية وللعودة الى الإقليم من ناحية ثانية.

فهل يتجرأ الاتراك على الذهاب بعيداً في لعبة الحرب في إدلب؟

اذا استمر الدعم الاميركي محدوداً فلن يعدم أردوغان وسيلة لتفعيل الحوار مع موسكو على قاعدة تطبيق اتفاقيات سوتشي، وبقي أن تقتنع الدولة السورية بذلك.

لذلك فإن أردوغان البراجماتي يمتلك وسيلتين لحفظ ماء وجهه: الاستمرار بمناوشات مع الجيش السوري والحوار العميق مع روسيا للمحافظة على ما تبقى له من دور. وهنا يشمل بكل تأكيد محاولة نيل موافقة روسية على دور له في ليبيا الى جانب حليفه السراج. وهذا يشمل حسب الاعتقاد التركي حصة في الغاز في البحر الأبيض المتوسط.

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