Sitrep: Operation Z

April 08, 2022

The biggest news of today’s cycle is the wild admission by the Pentagon, U.S. media, etc., that the U.S. has in fact employed a “strategy” of outright lying and making up fake intelligence to ‘combat Russia’.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-using-declassified-intel-fight-info-war-russia-even-intel-isnt-rock-rcna23014

Astounding quote from article: “President Joe Biden later said it publicly. But three U.S. officials told NBC News this week there is no evidence Russia has brought any chemical weapons near Ukraine. They said the U.S. released the information to deter Russia from using the banned munitions.”

They also admitted that most of the intelligence surrounding the conflict, such as the infamous ‘China is providing Russia with equipment’ was complete ‘malarky’, as the demented zombie-in-chief would say. How any reasonable and self-respecting country or people could trust the U.S.’s ongoing claims from this point on are beyond me. How could you possibly take in this announcement, and yet still believe the U.S. side of the story about the ‘Bucha massacre’ amongst other things?

This amazing feat of neuro-linguistic-programming must be seen to be believed: 

The reporters here celebrate the ‘novelty’ of this method of utilizing intelligence (as if the amazing technique of ‘lying’ has only just been discovered by them). They dance around the real description of the concept as basically being “lying”, by continually describing it in fancy ways to frill it up and legitimize the “technique” as something other than what it is on its bare-faced surface: outright lies and propaganda meant to control the narrative of the conflict favorably.

And by the way, the reporter in the video is this guy:

And was actually fired by the LA Times for how deeply in bed he was with the CIA

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/la-times-disowns-reporter_b_5770388

After these admissions how can ANYTHING from the U.S. be believed? Russian “casualties” of 30,000+? Bucha massacre? Chemical weapons usage? Russia’s “failed objectives” and “failing campaign”? These are all individual claims that fall under the purview of this ‘new’ and ‘amazing’ technique called complete b.s. from the CIA.

Obviously this has been U.S.’s chief tactic for decades. But the full admission brings up a starker reality. That behind the curtains, the CIA has in recent times shifted to conducting its Ops “in the open”, but presenting them in a way that makes them seem acceptable. For instance we know during the last election, a remarkable series of articles came out in the MSM detailing the entire deep-state covert ops, how various apparatuses of the democratic party came together with corporate assets, Facebook, NGOs, etc., to take control of the 2020 election. They even fully admit to it being a secretive “shadow campaign”, but rebranded as a ‘good cause’.

https://time.com/5936036/secret-2020-election-campaign/

In previous times this would have been an unprecedented scandal but now, rebranded and ‘in the open’, it’s given the cachet of legitimacy. The reason for the method shift is obvious: in today’s integrated online/social media environment, it’s pretty much impossible for the western intel agencies to operate in pure secrecy anymore. That era is over with. And so they’ve shifted to a strategy of conducting their Ops in full view but utilizing their media arm to repackage them to look justified in a certain light.

It’s akin to this – Hannity proudly and openly wearing a CIA pin (the Mockingbird is no longer caged, as you can see, it can fly freely and proudly in the open now) while decrying that, “Vladimir Putin has forfeited his right to live.”

Why does @seanhannity wear a CIA flag pin every night? https://t.co/iUW4hjwGJ1 pic.twitter.com/psPm4V1Dii

— Anya Parampil (@anyaparampil) April 7, 2022

Onto other things:

The U.S. has admitted to training Ukrainian saboteur groups to operate the new Switchblade kamikaze drones. Reportedly they are being trained on U.S. soil, in secret. https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3260827-u-s-training-small-number-of-ukrainian-troops-on-switchblade-drones/amp/

“The “very small number” of Ukrainian soldiers, who have been in the U.S. since last fall for military training, were taught to use the drone with the expectation that they would soon return to their country to train others on the equipment, press secretary John Kirby told reporters.

“We took the opportunity — having them still in the country — to give them a couple of days’ worth of training on the Switchblade so that they can go back — and they will be going back soon, back home — to train others in the Ukrainian military,” Kirby said.”

More confirmation of how deeply invested and entrenched the U.S. is in this war. But no different than the billions spent on training Syrian rebels and ‘moderate terrorists’ to fight against Russians and Assad in Syria.

The U.S. has even reactivated the Lend Lease program for the first time since WW2 to massively arm Ukraine: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/06/senate-unanimously-approves-lend-lease-00023668

And also:

“U.S. For 1st Time Publicly Announces Transfer Of Intelligence To Ukraine’s Armed Forces For Donbas Operations”

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/pentagon-reveals-it-giving-ukraine-intelligence-donbas-operations-201709

Here’s today’s print-up from the Pentagon itself. I can’t stress enough how massive the scale of this operation by the west to fund/supply Ukraine is. It dwarfs anything in history. When you consider that less than ~2000 Stingers were provided to the Taliban in the 80’s war, and that was considered an unprecedented scale operation at the time, then look at the above list and realize we’re only at the very earliest stages of what the West will be supplying to Ukraine (tanks, jets, etc likely all incoming eventually). There are some unconfirmed reports that even British Harpoons are already delivered and placed in Odessa. This is orders of magnitude more powerful/dangerous than the ‘Sea Skuas’ they were talking about, but this rumor may be fake propaganda from the Ukrop side.

More and more each day the scale of this operation is revealed and how deeply invested the west is, and it is breathtaking. New videos appear daily of large groups of foreign fighters, Georgian, etc., being heavily equipped and sent into the Ukraine.

And this list above is only from the U.S., there is much more from the other western ‘allies’ as well. Planes from North Macedonia landed in Reznow airfield in Poland today, likely bringing goodies as every other European country has. And add that to the billions already allotted recently in general aid and the billions spent on achieving Euromaidan, as admitted by Nuland when she said over $5 billion had been spent by the U.S.

The entire project has been in development for a very long time and it is the culmination of the western empire’s attempts to destroy Russia. Just listen here how Soros himself explains his involvement in the events of Ukraine dating back to the late 80’s and early 90’s. And how Adam Schiff admits that “the U.S. is fighting Russia over there so it doesn’t have to do it over here.”

On frontline news: As the big showdown in Donbass looms, a lot of forces are pouring in on both sides. Russia has shifted strategies and is now striking railway stations and reinforcement hubs / corridors, as many have hoped it would do. Overnight there were several reports of important railway hubs being hit by missiles. One near Zhytomir, which is possibly the single most important reinforcement hub to the frontlines in all of western Ukraine. Reinforcements being sent to frontlines were reportedly destroyed in the strike, though there’s no visual confirmation. And another in Kharkov region – just south, in Lozovaya – which evoked a video message plea from the Kharkov mayor who said railways were hit, oil has run out, but pleaded for people not to flee (presumably because the militants who control him need citizens to use as hostages / human shields just like in Mariupol).

“#KHARKOV Region—#Lozovaya—#Russia|n forces conduct precision missile strikes at a major supply/logistics centre of #Ukraine|ian forces in Lozovaya, which boast a key intersection of rail tracks enabling the supply and reinforcement of the #Donbass grouping of #UA military.”

As can be seen on this map, the Lozovaya junction is a critical resupply / reinforcement route for the Ukrop Donbass cauldron and specifically their stronghold of Kramatorsk, which had been the central headquarters of the entire JFO for some time. And other reports said a railway bridge was hit leading to that junction as well.

Just north of there, Russia continues to progress around Izyum. Our forces are now fighting at Sulihyvka/Suligovka on the way to Dovhen’ke in the direction towards Slavyansk.

Not only does this photo below show the progress downward from Izyum, but you can start seeing how this salient is now beginning to create the opening pincer that will enclose the ‘Great Cauldron’.

The battle for Kam’yanka, directly south of Izyum was quite destructive for the UAF, they suffered many losses and there are fields littered with their dead, as well as many trophies taken. https://www.bitchute.com/video/2qjB8t89mK2a/

Reports indicate that UAF forces are now amassing a huge force in the Kramatorsk / Druzhkovka region in preparation for RF’s advances. But they continue putting up stiff resistance along the road towards Slavyansk as well. The highways from Horlivka towards Kramatorsk are said to be filled with UAF troops. This appears to be their single largest agglomeration of the cauldron.

In the south, RF have blockaded Ugledar and Novomikhailovka, and begun storming the latter. Also, Basurin has estimated 3,000 to 3,500 enemy fighters remain in Mariupol. And the map there looks something like this:

With that said, most of the ‘weak’ ones have surrendered and only the most hardened Azov fanatics remain, so there is some possibility that the fighting can still go on for a decently long time. With that said, the more they retreat towards the ports, the more they are running out of residential areas with civilians to use as human shields, which allows allied forces to use increasingly heavy-handed tactics and strikes against them. I reported last time how for the first time heavy duty artillery units like 2S3 and 2S4s were brought in, such as those you can see in the latest Wargonzo video 

So it’s difficult to guess – the fight could take another two weeks, or it can suddenly collapse in the next day or two if the remaining Azov abruptly surrender. Unfortunately cities take a long time to siege, many of us remember following the events of Aleppo or Sarajevo, and the years it took. Even in the final stages of Aleppo when rebel forces were already collapsing and SAA had the upper hand, it was weeks for every neighborhood, and months to clear districts.

But right now things are advancing according to plan. Large Russian reinforcements have poured into the Kharkov area to head to the Izyum front, and meanwhile Ukrop reinforcements/resupplies are finally being hit in their train stations and railyards by the RuAF, so the stage is being favorably set for our forces.

And for those that continue to doubt that the RF has vastly destroyed the Ukrainian military in terms of armor and capabilities. New videos continue to show the total lack of Ukrainian armor or vehicles. Here is one showing a large Ukrainian force, all on foot, not a vehicle among them – forced to use a civilian truck to evacuate their wounded – whom, by the way, have obvious swastikas on their person.

A force this large should always be supported with mechanized units and some sort of infantry fighting vehicle at the minimum, yet here they are taking lots of casualties in the video, no armor in sight.

And here, we see Ukrainian soldiers forced to ride bicycles to get to where they’re going. https://www.bitchute.com/video/ULjN5yH3IcJn/

A week or so ago, the American mercenary James Vasquez bragged on twitter how him and his squad “commandeered” (read: stole) a Lexus in Kiev so they can get to the frontline, such is their lack of military transport vehicles or APCs.

The U.S. by the way says that Russia has not responded to any calls from the Pentagon since February: https://www.rt.com/news/553500-pentagon-russia-phone-silent/

General Milley keeps calling, and Russia is not answering.

A quick note on the topic of Russian ‘traitors’ and 5^th columnists, it’s interesting how many of them are fleeing to Israel specifically.

https://www.rt.com/business/553285-russian-billionaire-prokhorov-israel-citizenship/

Prokhorov was once a Russian presidential candidate and one of Russia’s richest and most powerful oligarchs.

And now the CEO of Yandex https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/tech-news/yandex-ceo-relocates-to-israel-cannot-work-for-a-country-at-war-1.10722163

Lastly, the Ruble is now in the mid 70’s to the USD.

 To the utter bewilderment of the West, it just keeps gaining in strength against the dollar.

I’ll leave you with this last video: to those that still question the Russian air power, or say Russia is not utilizing it, or doesn’t have air supremacy, etc. Here’s what a Ukrainian soldier said when asked what he fears most in this war: https://www.bitchute.com/video/xbWbfp7v5nJH/

بوتين يفاجئ الغرب بعقل استراتيجيّ خطير

الإثنين 4 نيسان 2022

 ناصر قنديل

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رغم كل الأوراق التي تبدو ظاهرياً بيد الغرب عموماً وأميركا خصوصاً في المواجهة مع روسيا، ورغم إدمان الكثير من المحللين، الملتحقين بالسياسات الغربية والأميركية وكذلك المناوئين لها، على ترويج معادلة أن الغرب وعلى رأسه أميركا، لديهما خطط جاهزة هي التي تحكم مسارات الأحداث، وصولاً للقول إن روسيا وقعت في فخ نصبه الغرب لها، وإن الحسابات التي وضعها الرئيس الروسي فلاديمير بوتين لحربه جاءت مخالفة للواقع، فإن التدقيق البعيد عن التأثر بالبروباغندا المهيمنة على القراءات والتحليلات الإعلامية، وهي غربية وأميركية بالتأكيد، سيوصل أي باحث جدي ومهني إلى استخلاص مفاده، أن الورقة الوحيدة التي باتت بيد الغرب وأميركا هي السيطرة على منصات الحرب الإعلامية، ومحاولة فرض رواية للأحداث تخدم استنتاجات تخدم الحسابات الغربية والأميركية.

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تمّ بناء خطة الغرب للمواجهة على فرضية سيناريوات للحرب العسكرية، تفترض أنها الميدان الرئيس للصراع، ووضعت الخطط لتزويد الجيش الأوكراني بالمال والسلاح والمرتزقة من جهة، وتحصين الجبهة الشرقية لحلف الناتو، خصوصاً في بولندا، من جهة موازية، بصفتها الوجهة الرئيسية للمواجهة مع روسيا في ظل تعذر الدخول المباشر في الحرب، وسعي الأميركيين لتفادي الوقوع فيها، وفجأة يعلن الرئيس الروسي تموضعاً لقواته يتضمن الانسحاب من جوار العاصمة الأوكرانية كييف التي قالت الرواية الأميركية إنها هدف العملية العسكرية الروسية، وتفقد كل الخطط العسكرية الغربية قيمتها بحصر المواجهة العسكرية في دونباس، في ظل هيمنة روسية على البحر والجو، وفرضها لحصار محكم على تدفق الوقود. ولا تستقيم رواية ربط هذا التموضع بهزيمة روسية بينما المفاوضات تدور حول تكريس الحياد الأوكراني بوثيقة خطيّة ستشكل أساس ما سيلي من مفاوضات، كما لا يستقيم جمعها مع الرواية الموازية بأن التموضع خدعة مشكوك بها تمهيداً لهجوم جديد، فيما يبدو الرئيس الروسي دقيقاً بالقول إن المرحلة الأولى من الحرب انتهت بالنسبة اليه بتحقيق ثلاثة أهداف، تدمير القدرة العسكرية الثقيلة للجيش الأوكراني، استرداد السيطرة لحساب سكان إقليم دونباس على مناطقهم، الحصول على تعهد أوكراني بقبول الحياد إطاراً لمستقبل أوكرانيا، بحيث سيتم الفصل من الآن وصاعداً، بين مسارين، مسار أوكراني روسي عنوانه الحياد والقرم، ومسار أوكراني أوكراني يحتمل البقاء عسكرياً بانتظار نضوج ظروفه للتفاوض السياسي، وربما تحت سقف المشاركين سابقاً في إطار مينسك، ولا يبدو بعيداً عن نظرية بوتين فرضية التوصل الى اتفاق بين روسيا وأوكرانيا تنسحب بموجبه القوات الروسية ويستمر التفاوض حول القرم لخمس عشرة سنة، كما تقول الوثيقة الأوكرانية، وهي تحت السيطرة الروسية، بينما الحرب مستمرّة في دونباس، والمشاريع التفاوضية على الطاولة.

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أطلق الغرب وعلى رأسه أميركا مساراً موازياً للمسار العسكري، هو مسار العقوبات. وكان الرهان على نتائج مدوية ستصيب القدرات الروسية، بل تماسك الطبقة السياسية والمجتمع الروسيين، وصولاً لتفكيك التحالفات الروسية الدولية، وإذا بالنتائج تأتي مخيبة للآمال الغربية والأميركية، فلم يتحقق شيء من هذه التوقعات، بل تحولت العقوبات الى مسار معاكس مع شن الرئيس بوتين لهجوم اقتصادي مالي عبر ربط بيع الغاز لأوروبا بالروبل الروسي. وهو الحدث الذي صار عنوان المواجهة الذي يتقدم على حساب المسار العسكري تدريجياً، ولا يخفى أن هذا المسار ليس مجرد رد فعل على نتائج الحرب في أوكرانيا، فهو إعادة رسم لمعادلات الأسواق العالمية في ملف الطاقة من جهة، وملف السيطرة المالية والنقدية الغربية والأميركية على نظام التبادل والتسعير. وتلك ملفات تحدد هوية النظام العالمي الجديد الذي لم يعد مجرد خطاب سياسي روسي، بل صار هدفاً رسمياً معلناً لحلف يضم روسيا والصين وإيران والهند وشركاء آخرين في العالم، ولا يبدو أنه سيتوقف بمجرد انتهاء الحرب في أوكرانيا.

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بمثل ما كان مثيراً للسخرية الحديث عن فشل روسي بالتقدم نحو كييف، صار واضحاً ان الدخول الى العاصمة الأوكرانية لم يكن هدفاً روسياً. وبقدر ما كان مثيراً للضحك الحديث عن انهيار الاقتصاد الروسي يبدو مثيراً للانتباه حجم الارتباك الغربي والأوروبي من معادلة الغاز والروبل. وفي الحالتين تبدو الخلاصة واحدة، وعنوانها العبقرية الاستراتيجية للرئيس بوتين التي فاجأت الغرب ولا تزال، أمام هزال قادته وخططهم، والأخطر أنها تجعل وسائل الإعلام التي كانت منصة الغرب الباقية لتسجيل الأرباح، الى منصات يتقن الرئيس بوتين توظيفها لحسابه، عبر مفاجآته المتلاحقة.

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Meet the New, Resource-Based Global Reserve Currency

April 01, 2022

A new reality is being formed:

the unipolar world is irrevocably becoming a thing of the past,

a multipolar one is taking shape.

—

By Pepe Escobar, posted with the author’s permission and widely cross-posted

It was something to behold. Dmitri Medvedev, former Russian President, unrepentant Atlanticist, current deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, decided to go totally unplugged in an outburst matching the combat star turn of Mr. Khinzal that delivered palpable shock and awe all across NATOstan.

Medvedev said “hellish” Western sanctions not only have failed to cripple Russia, but are instead “returning to the West like a boomerang.” Confidence in reserve currencies is “fading like the morning mist”, and ditching the US dollar and the euro is not unrealistic anymore: “The era of regional currencies is coming.”

After all, he added, “no matter if they want it or not, they’ll have to negotiate a new financial order (…) And the decisive voice will then be with those countries that have a strong and advanced economy, healthy public finances and a reliable monetary system.”

Medvedev relayed his succinct analysis even before D Day – as in the deadline this Thursday established by President Putin after which payments for Russian gas by “unfriendly nations” will only be accepted in rubles.

The G7, predictably, had struck a (collective) pose: we won’t pay. “We” means the 4 that are not large Russian gas importers. “We”, moreover, means the Empire of Lies dictating the rules. As for the 3 that will be in dire straits, not only they are major importers but also happen to be WWII losers – Germany, Italy and Japan, still de facto occupied territories. History does have a habit of playing perverted tricks.

Denial didn’t last long. Germany was the first to break – even before industrialists from Ruhr to Bavaria staged a mass revolt. Scholz, the puny Chancellor, called Putin, who had to explain the obvious:  payments are being converted into rubles because the EU froze Russia’s foreign exchange reserves – in a crass violation of international law.

With Taoist patience, Putin also expressed hope this would not represent a deterioration in contract terms for European importers. Russian and German experts should sit down together and discuss the new terms.

Moscow is working on a set of documents defining the new deal. Essentially, that spells out no rubles, no gas. Contracts become null and void once you violate trust. The US and the EU broke legally biding agreements with unilateral sanctions and on top of it confiscated foreign reserves of a – nuclear – G20 nation.

The unilateral sanctions made dollars and euros worthless to Russia. Hysteria fits won’t cut it: this will be resolved – but under Russia’s terms. Period. The Foreign Ministry had already warned that refusal to pay for gas in rubles would lead to a serious global crisis of non-payments and serial global-level bankruptcies, a hellish chain reaction of blocked transactions, freezing of collateral assets and closures of credit lines.

What will happen next is partially predictable. EU companies will receive the new set of rules. They will have time to examine the documents and make a decision. Those that say “no” will be automatically excluded from receiving direct Russian gas shipments – all politico-economic consequences included.

There will be some compromise, of course. For instance, quite a few EU nations will accept to use rubles and increase their gas acquisitions so they may resell the surplus to their neighbors and make a profit. And some may also decide to buy gas on the go on energy exchanges.

So Russia is not imposing an ultimatum on anybody. The whole thing will take time – a rolling process. With some sideway action as well. The Duma is contemplating the extension of payment in rubles to other essential products – such as oil, metals, timber, wheat. It will depend on the collective voracity of the EU chihuahuas. Everyone knows that their non-stop hysteria may translate into a colossal rupture of supply chains across the West.

Bye bye oligarchs

While the Atlanticist ruling classes have gone totally berserk but still remain focused on fighting to the last European to extract any remaining, palpable EU wealth, Russia is playing it cool. Moscow has been quite lenient in fact, brandishing the specter of no gas in Spring rather than Winter.

The Russian Central Bank nationalized foreign exchange earnings of all major exporters. There was no default. The ruble keeps rising – and is now back to roughly the same level before Operation Z.  Russia remains self-sufficient, food-wise. American hysteria over “isolated” Russia is laughable. Every actor that matters across Eurasia – not to mention the other 4 BRICS and virtually the whole Global South – did not demonize and/or sanction Russia.

As an extra bonus, arguably the last oligarch capable of influence in Moscow, Anatoly Chubais, is gone. Call it another momentous historical trickery: Western sanction hysteria de facto dismembered Russian oligarchy – Putin’s pet project since 2000. What that implies is the strengthening of the Russian state and the consolidation of Russian society.

We still don’t have all the facts, but a case can be made that after years of careful evaluation Putin opted to really go for broke and break the West’s back – using that trifecta (imminent blitzkrieg on Donbass; US bioweapon labs; Ukraine working on nuclear weapons)  as the casus belli.

The freezing of foreign reserves had to have been forecasted, especially because the Russian Central Bank had been increasing its reserves of US Treasuries since November last year. Then there’s the serious possibility of Moscow being able to access “secret” offshore foreign reserves – a complex matrix built with Chinese insider help.

The sudden switch from dollars/euros to rubles was hardcore, Olympic-level geoeconomic judo. Putin enticed the collective West to unleash its demented hysteria sanction attack – and turned it against the opponent with a single, swift move.

And here we all are now trying to absorb so many in-synch game-changing developments following the weaponization of dollar assets:  rupee-ruble with India, the Saudi petroyuan, co-badged Mir-UnionPay cards issued by Russian banks, the Russia-Iran SWIFT alternative, the EAEU-China project of an independent monetary/financial system.

Not to mention the master coup by the Russian Central Bank, pegging 1 gram of gold to 5,000 rubles – which is already around $60, and climbing.

Coupled with No Rubles No Gas, what we have here is energy de facto pegged to gold. The EU Chihuahuas and the Japanese colony will need to buy a lot of rubles in gold or buy a lot of gold to have their gas. And it gets better. Russia may re-peg the ruble to gold in the near future. Could go to 2,000 rubles, 1,000 rubles, even 500 rubles for a gram of gold.

Time to be sovereign

The Holy Grail in the evolving discussions about a multipolar world, since the BRICS summits in the 2000s featuring Putin, Hu Jintao and Lula, has always been how to bypass dollar hegemony. It’s now right in front of the whole Global South, as a benign apparition bearing a Cheshire cat’s smile: the golden ruble, or ruble backed by oil, gas, minerals, commodity exports.

The Russian Central Bank, unlike the Fed, does not practice QE and won’t export toxic inflation to the rest of the planet. The Russian Navy not only secures all Russian sea lines, but Russian nuclear-powered submarines are capable of popping up all over the planet unannounced.

Russia is far, far ahead already implementing the concept of “continental naval power”. December 2015, in the Syrian theater, was the strategic game-changer. The Black Sea-based submarine 4th division is the star of the show.

Russian naval fleets may now employ Kalibr missiles across a space comprehending Eastern Europe, West Asia and Central Asia. The Caspian Sea and the Black Sea, linked by the Don-Volga canal, offer a space of maneuver comparable to the Eastern Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf combined. 6,000 km-long. And you don’t even need to access warm waters.

That covers around 30 nations: the traditional Russian sphere of influence; historical borders of the Russian empire; and current political/energy rivalry spheres.

No wonder the Beltway is berserk.

Russia guarantees shipping across Asia, the Arctic and Europe, in tandem with the Eurasia-wide BRI railway network.

And last but not least, don’t mess with a Nuclear Bear.

Essentially, this is what hardcore power politics is all about. Medvedev was not bragging when he said the era of a single reserve currency is over. The advent of a resource-based global reserve currency means, in a nutshell, that 13% of the planet will not dominate the other 87% anymore.

It’s NATOstan vs. Eurasia redux. Cold War 2.0, 3.0, 4.0 and even 5.0. It doesn’t matter. All the previous Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) nations see which way the geopolitical and geo-economic winds are blowing: the time to assert their real sovereignty is at hand as the “rules-based international order” bites the dust.

Welcome to the birth of the new world system. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in China, after meeting several counterparts from across Eurasia, could not have outlined it better:

“A new reality is being formed: the unipolar world is irrevocably becoming a thing of the past, a multipolar one is taking shape. It’s an objective process. It’s unstoppable. In this reality, more than one power will “rule” – it will be necessary to negotiate between all the key states that today have a decisive influence on the world economy and politics. At the same time, realizing their special situation, these countries ensure compliance with the basic principles of the UN Charter, including the fundamental one – the sovereign equality of states. No one on this Earth should be seen as a minor player. Everyone is equal and sovereign.”

نهاية «نهاية التاريخ»: الفوضى العالمية فُرصتنا الأنسب

السبت 2 نيسان 2022

(أ ف ب )

 وليد شرارة

موقف غالبية بلدان الجنوب، وبينهم حلفاء تاريخيون للولايات المتحدة، من النزاع الدائر في أوكرانيا، ورفضهم إدانة روسيا وفرض عقوبات عليها، مؤشّر قوي جديد إلى التراجع المستمرّ والمتسارع للهيمنة الأميركية. مَن كان يتصوّر، حتى بضع سنوات خلت، أن السعودية مثلاً، التي سارت خلف واشنطن طوال عقود الحرب الباردة وبعدها، واندرجت في استراتيجيتها العامّة ليس في الشرق الأوسط وحده، بل في أميركا اللاتينية وأفريقيا أيضاً، سترفض الانحياز إليها في مواجهتها الحيوية الراهنة مع موسكو؟ أمّا الهند، التي تحوّلت منذ مطلع الألفية الثانية إلى حليف رئيس، بنظر الاستراتيجيين الأميركيين، في مقابل الصين، وشريك بارز في «كواد»، فإن موقفها من النزاع في أوكرانيا، وقرارها مضاعفة وارداتها من النفط الروسي بأربع مرّات، والدفع بالروبل وليس بالدولار، ولّد صدمة جديدة لهؤلاء الخبراء الاستراتيجيين. المقاربة التركية للنزاع في أوكرانيا، وإن كانت مختلفة عن تلك المذكورة، تتمايز بوضوح عن نظيرتها الأميركية: هي أمدّت كييف بالسلاح، خاصة بمسيّرات «بيرقدار»، لكنها رفضت فرض عقوبات على موسكو، وتلعب دوراً نشيطاً في الوساطة بين الطرفَين.

هذا بالنسبة لحلفاء واشنطن، أمّا خصومها، فإن مواقفهم تتراوح بين الدعم العلني أو الضمني لروسيا. لكلّ دولة من دول الجنوب دوافع خاصة تفسّر تموضعها خارج المعسكر الذي تقوده الولايات المتحدة في مجابهتها المحتدمة مع منافِسيها الاستراتيجيين في روسيا والصين، وفي تنمية شراكات متعدّدة الأبعاد معهما، غير أن المحصّلة النهائية لمثل هذه التموضعات والشراكات، تشكّل منعطفاً حاسماً في مسار العلاقات الدولية منذ نهاية الحرب العالمية الثانية. فعجز الإمبراطورية المنحدرة عن ضبط الحلفاء، ناهيك عن التصدّي الناجح للأعداء، يشي بتفكّك منظومة السيطرة الغربية على المعمورة، وبداية مرحلة طويلة من الصراعات الدولية والإقليمية في بقاع مختلفة منها، ستحدّد مآلاتها شكل النظام الدولي الذي سيعاد بناؤه. ولا شك في أن للفوضى العالمية الآخذة في الاتّساع، تداعيات أكيدة ووازنة على صراعنا المديد مع المشروع الاستيطاني الصهيوني.

حالة الفوضى
الصراع بين الدول الكبرى ليس صنواً للفوضى بالضرورة. ففي مرحلة ما بعد الحرب العالمية الثانية، انقسم العالم إلى معسكرَين، ضمّ كلّ منهما مجموعة من الدول والأحزاب والتنظيمات ذات الخلفيات الأيديولوجية والسياسية المتعدّدة، ما أدى إلى نشوء نظام القطبية الثنائية. كانت للقطبَين الرئيسيَن، أي الولايات المتحدة والاتحاد السوفياتي، قدرة تأثير وضبط تختلف درجاتها مع أطراف معسكرَيهما، التي تمتّع بعضها بهامش استقلالية نسبية. غير أن مَن يستعرض الحروب والنزاعات التي دارت في تلك المرحلة، سيجد أن كلّاً من القطبين امتلك إمكانية التدخّل في مسارها، و»إقناع» حليفه المحلي أو الإقليمي بالتصعيد أو بتخفيض حدّة الصراع في فترات معينة، وبـ»اقتراح» حلول لهذه الصراعات، تنسجم مع الأجندة الدولية للقطب المعنيّ. فالاتحاد السوفياتي الذي دعم الدول العربية والمقاومة الفلسطينية في صراعها مع الكيان الصهيوني، ساهم في إقناعها بأن يكون هدفها النهائي هو التسوية السلمية على قاعدة القرارات الدولية، وإن لم تكن هذه المساهمة هي العامل الوحيد الذي يفسّر قبول الأطراف الرسمية العربية والفلسطينية بهذا السقف السياسي. الأمر نفسه ينسحب، وإن بأشكال ودرجات مختلفة، على حروب ونزاعات وقعت آنذاك، وسعى كلّ من القطبَين إلى توظيفها في إطار استراتيجيته العامة، أو ضبطها لمنع اتّساعها واستعارها.

الفراغ الناجم عن تراجع الهيمنة الأميركية، وعدم وجود قوى مرشّحة للحلول مكانها، ستعمل القوى الإقليمية على تعبئته

بعد انهيار الاتحاد السوفياتي، حاولت الولايات المتحدة فرض نظام الآحادية القطبية، وشنّت لهذه الغاية حروباً عدوانية مدمرة، غير أنه بات من الواضح أنها فشلت في ذلك تماماً. ما نشهده اليوم هو مجابهة بين معسكر أطلسي بقيادة الولايات المتحدة، ومحور روسي – صيني أصبحت أوكرانيا إحدى ساحاته. لكن بقيّة العالم، أي بلدان الجنوب، وبينها قوى إقليمية وازنة، اختارت «عدم الانحياز» إلى أيّ من الطرفين. أصبح «عدم الانحياز»، ولو الظرفي، بالنسبة لهذه البلدان، أسهل ممّا كان عليه في فترة تشكّل المنظّمة التي تحمل هذا الاسم، والتي تعرّض أعضاؤها لضغوط هائلة، من قِبَل الولايات المتحدة أساساً، لحملهم على الانحياز أو إسقاط أنظمتهم الوطنية. وعلى رغم احتفاظ عدد من بلدان الجنوب بتحالفاتها الدولية، فإن هامش استقلاليتها قد اتّسع، وأضحت تعطي الأولوية لأجندتها الخاصة، حتى ولو لم تتقاطع مع أجندة الحليف الدولي. يقول فرانسيس فوكوياما، في مقابلة مع «ذي نيو ستايتسمان»، بأننا «ربّما نرى نهاية نهاية التاريخ». الفراغ الناجم عن تراجع الهيمنة الأميركية، وعدم وجود قوى دولية مرشّحة حالياً للحلول في مكانها، في منطقتنا وفي مناطق أخرى، ستعمل القوى الإقليمية على تعبئته من خلال النزاع في ما بينها أو التوصّل إلى تفاهمات وترتيبات.

أولوية فلسطين

منذ أن أدرك الحلفاء الإقليميون للولايات المتحدة قرارها «التخفّف من أعباء الشرق الأوسط»، وهو توجّه سيتعزّز في سياستها الخارجية في سياق حربها بالوكالة مع روسيا في أوكرانيا، وهم يعملون على بناء تحالف «عربي» – صهيوني في مواجهة قوى المقاومة في الإقليم، وفي القلب منها إيران. هذه هي الغاية الحقيقية لـ»اتفاقية أبراهام»، ولقمم شرم الشيخ والنقب. غير أن الإمارات، وهي الطرف الرئيس الذي اشترك في صياغة هذا المشروع أيام إدارة دونالد ترامب، شرعت من جهة أخرى في السعي لتطبيع علاقاتها مع إيران، وتطوير المصالح المشتركة معها. السعودية لم تشارك حتى الآن رسمياً في التحالف المذكور، لكن وجود البحرين تمّ بعد ضوء أخضر منها. إلّا أن ولي عهدها دعا بدوره إلى إقامة علاقات حسن جوار مع إيران.
تعلم جميع أطراف هذا التحالف هشاشته، وفي مقدّمتها الكيان الصهيوني. وتعلم قوى المقاومة ذلك، وفي طليعتها الشعب الفلسطيني، تغيُّر أولويات القوى الغربية، وانشغالها بمواجهات استراتيجية كبرى مع روسيا والصين ستزداد حدّة في المدى المنظور، وتستتبع تراجع أولوية صراعات المنطقة على أجندتها. هذا ما يثير ذعر قادة الكيان، وما يفسّر التقاط أبناء الشعب الفلسطيني وتنظيماته المقاوِمة لهذه الفرصة وتصعيد العمل المقاوم. انفجار انتفاضة شعبية عارمة ضدّ الاحتلال مدعومة بالنار، نار البنادق والصواريخ، سيفرض التراجع على العدو، وسيقلب الطاولة على مشاريع التحالفات الخيانية. الفوضى العالمية الراهنة هي السياق الأنسب لفرض أولوية فلسطين على جدول أعمال الجميع، عبر جولة جديدة من المجابهة تبني على ما حقّقته معركة «سيف القدس» المجيدة.

من ملف : نهاية «نهاية التاريخ»

Day 35 of the Russian SMO in the Ukraine – a “naysayers special”!

March 31, 2022

How many of you remember the endless stream of warnings that “Putin works for Schwab” or “Putin is in bed with Netanyahu”, he will “sell out the Donbass” and he is “bluffing” about sanctions.

Then came the ultimatum.  They dismissed it.

Then came the Special Military Operation (SMO).  They dismissed it.

Then came the news that Russia would sell gas to hostile states only in Rubles.  They dismissed it.

See, for them, there are only two options:

1. Putin is a Davos/Bilderberger/CFR/WEF/etc. agent
2. Putin is bluffing

So let me ask you all: with a eight year track of being wrong, every time, why would you listen to these clowns?

I mean, seriously, not only are they wrong, but they are using all the talking points of US PSYOPs.  Some do that in the name of freedom, democracy, and their love for the pure and Nazi-free Ukraine they support so much, others do that in the name of Holy Russia and their desire to overthrow Putin to replace him with… … somebody better.

Having spent YEARS debunking their nonsense, I now wonder, with Putin saying this:

Will they finally admit that they were wrong?

NOPE!

Why not?  Because for them ANY victory, even just a perceived victory, for Russia is not a victory for Russia, but a victory for that “evil Putin” which they hate with all their hearts.  Besides, they much rather have bona fide Nazis prevail than Russia.  For the Empire of Lies, Nazis are SOBs, but they are “our SOBs”.  Nothing new here.

Russia beat the initial economic sanctions in exactly the time frame predicted by Putin.  But the naysayers chose to either deny or dismiss this.

Now the Ruble is back on its pre Feb 24th position, but they won’t consider that as relevant.

Then there are those who still believe that the Nazis are winning.  On all fronts.  Well, here is today map and you decide for yourself who is winning and who is losing:

Especially for the alternatively gifted, here is a breakdown of what is going on according to Scott Ritter:

1/ Big Arrow War—a primer. For all those scratching their heads in confusion, or dusting off their dress uniforms for the Ukrainian victory parade in Kiev, over the news about Russia’s “strategic shift”, you might want to re-familiarize yourself with basic military concepts.

2/ Maneuver warfare is a good place to start. Understand Russia started its “special military operation” with a severe manpower deficit—200,000 attackers to some 600,000 defenders (or more). Classic attritional conflict was never an option. Russian victory required maneuver.

3/ Maneuver war is more psychological than physical and focuses more on the operational than on the tactical level. Maneuver is relational movement—how you deploy and move your forces in relation to your opponent. Russian maneuver in the first phase of its operation support this.

4/ The Russians needed to shape the battlefield to their advantage. In order to do this, they needed to control how Ukraine employed it’s numerically superior forces, while distributing their own smaller combat power to best accomplish this objective.

5/ Strategically, to facilitate the ability to maneuver between the southern, central, and northern fronts, Russia needed to secure a land bridge between Crimea and Russia. The seizure of the coastal city of Mariupol was critical to this effort. Russia has accomplished this task.

6/ While this complex operation unfolded, Russia needed to keep Ukraine from maneuvering its numerically superior forces in a manner that disrupted the Mariupol operation. This entailed the use of several strategic supporting operations—feints, fixing operations, and deep attack.

7/ The concept of a feint is simple—a military force either is seen as preparing to attack a given location, or actually conducts an attack, for the purpose of deceiving an opponent into committing resources in response to the perceived or actual actions.

8/ The use of the feint played a major role in Desert Storm, where Marine Amphibious forces threatened the Kuwaiti coast, forcing Iraq to defend against an attack that never came, and where the 1st Cavalry Division actually attacked Wadi Al Batin to pin down the Republican Guard.

9/ The Russians made extensive use of the feint in Ukraine, with Amphibious forces off Odessa freezing Ukrainian forces there, and a major feint attack toward Kiev compelling Ukraine to reinforce their forces there. Ukraine was never able to reinforce their forces in the east.

10/ Fixing operations were also critical. Ukraine had assembled some 60,000-100,000 troops in the east, opposite Donbas. Russia carried out a broad fixing attack designed to keep these forces fully engaged and unable to maneuver in respect to other Russian operations.

11/ During Desert Storm, two Marine Divisions were ordered to carry out similar fixing attacks against Iraqi forces deployed along the Kuwaiti-Saudi border, tying down significant numbers of men and material that could not be used to counter the main US attack out west.

12/ The Russian fixing attack pinned the main Ukrainian concentration of forces in the east, and drove them away from Mariupol, which was invested and reduced. Supporting operations out of Crimea against Kherson expanded the Russian land bridge. This phase is now complete.

13/ Russia also engaged in a campaign of strategic deep attack designed to disrupt and destroy Ukrainian logistics, command & control, and air power and long-range fire support. Ukraine is running out of fuel and ammo, cannot coordinate maneuver, and has no meaningful Air Force.

14/ Russia is redeploying some of its premier units from where they had been engaged in feint operations in northern Kiev to where they can support the next phase of the operation, namely the liberation of the Donbas and the destruction of the main Ukrainian force in the east.

15/ This is classic maneuver warfare. Russia will now hold Ukraine in the north and south while its main forces, reinforced by the northern units, Marines, and forces freed up by the capture of Mariupol, seek to envelope and destroy 60,000 Ukrainian forces in the east.

16/ This is Big Arrow War at its finest, something Americans used to know but forgot in the deserts and mountains of Afghanistan and Iraq. It also explains how 200,000 Russians have been able to defeat 600,000 Ukrainians. Thus ends the primer on maneuver warfare, Russian style.

Now none of that is very advanced or exotic.  And if a US Marine (!) can understand that, so can anybody else with a basic educated and common sense.  Unless, of course, you have an ideological agenda which prevents you from accepting reality.

I might drop by later again, this is definitely a day full of events.

Andrei

PS: and, yes, the Russians will still continue to negotiate and talk with everybody.  Get used to it!

Russian ruble rises against USD, euro

28 Mar 2022

Source: Agencies

By Al Mayadeen Net 

Russia’s strategy of only accepting payments in rubles for gas deliveries to Europe caused the USD and euro to depreciate against the ruble.

A vendor counts Russian ruble banknotes at a market in Omsk, Russia February 18, 2022

The USD exchange rate declined in favor of the Russian ruble, trading at 90 rubles during Monday trading on Moscow Exchange for the first time this month. On the other hand, the euro dropped below 98 rubles for the first time since the end of February, trading data suggested.

The USD dipped 6.41%, reaching 89.85 rubles. The last time it had declined below 90 rubles was on March 1, 2022, just days after the start of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, which saw the West chipping in together to impose harsh restrictions and sanctions on Moscow.

The euro dipped 6.8%, trading at 97.86 rubles. The last time it was trading under 98 rubles was on February 28.

Later on in the day, the dollar exchange rate dipped 6.77%, trading at 89.5 rubles, while the euro dipped 6.48%, trading at 98.2 rubles.

Russian President Vladimir Putin had announced that his country would only accept payments in rubles for gas deliveries to “unfriendly countries” in a nod to all EU members in light of the harsh round of sanctions they imposed on Moscow.

The appreciation of the ruble against the USD and the euro is mainly due to Putin’s decision, as following his announcement, Russia’s ruble rose in the face of the USD and the euro, marking a major hike since the currency took a dive against the western currencies due to the sanctions imposed on the country.

The sanctions the EU is imposing on Russia are over its special military operation in Ukraine, launched due to NATO’s eastward expansion, the Ukrainian shelling of Donbass, and the killing of the people of the Donetsk People’s Republic and Lugansk People’s Republic, in addition to Moscow wanting to “denazify” and demilitarize Ukraine.

In response, the US and its allies have rolled out comprehensive sanctions, including restrictions on the Russian central bank, export control measures, SWIFT cutoff for select banks, and closure of airspace to all Russian flights. Many of their companies have suspended their Russian operations.

The Saker interviews Michael Hudson

March 26, 2022

Following Putin’s announcement about selling gas for Rubles only to hostile nations, I decided to reach out to Michael Hudson and ask him (my level, primitive) questions.  Here is our full email exchange:

Andrei: Russia has declared that she will only sell gas to “hostile countries” for Rubles.  Which means that to non-hostile countries she will continue to sell in Dollars/Euros.  Can these hostile countries still purchase gas from Russia but via third countries?

Michael Hudson:  There seem to be two ways for hostile countries to buy Russian gas. One seems to be to use Russian banks that are not banned from SWIFT. The other way would indeed seem to be to go through what looks to develop as a formal or informal third-country bank or exchange. India and China would seem to be the best positioned for this role.  U.S. diplomats will be pressing India to impose its own sanctions on Russia, and there is a strong pro-U.S. constituency there. But even Modi sees the obvious superior benefits of benefiting from India’s geopolitical position with Russia and China’s Belt and Road Initiative relative to whatever the U.S. has to

Back in the 1960s the West dealt with the Soviet Union using barter deals. Arranging this barter became a big banking business. Barter is the typical “final stage” of the deterioration of a credit economy into a money economy that breaks down.  Over the medium term, a new international financial organization needs to be created as an alternative to the dollarized IMF to handle such intra-bloc transactions in today’s new multipolarizing world.

Andrei: These hostile nations would pay extra for that service, but they would not have to get Rubles.  Is that even possible?

Michael Hudson: Presumably Russia would not absorb the added bank costs of avoiding U.S. sanctions. It would simply add them on to the price, after setting the price at which it hopes to end up with – preferably at the original “old” ruble/euro or ruble/dollar exchange rate, not the post-attack depreciated rate.

Andrei: Question: Do you believe that the EU will agree to pay Roubles or will they take the total loss of 40% of their energy?

Michael Hudson: They will pay – or be voted out of office. If they WERE to cut their energy imports from Russia, the distress-price of gas would soar and there would be drastic shortages disrupting the economy. Energy is productivity and GDP. For Russia, of course, this is an opportunity to make the break now instead of later – and leave NATO to take the blame for the interruption of supply. So if I were Russia, I would not be in a hurry to help solve the foreign-payment problem. The same goes for non-oil raw materials, from neon to palladium to titanium, nickel and aluminum.

Andrei: So far, this applies only to natural gas.  Do you believe that Russia will extend this to petroleum, wheat and fertilizers and, if yes, what will the effect from this be for the world economy?

Michael Hudson: All Russian exports are affected by these currency controls, because all bank transfers are sanctioned in the way discussed above.  Russia has no use for dollars or euros, because these can be grabbed. It needs to have complete control over whatever monetary assets it receives, now that past norms of international law and financial policy no longer apply.

Andrei:  Russia has A LOT of natural resources and a lot of technologies/commodities.  If she is successful in her efforts to become paid in Rubles, could it be that the Ruble, which would then be a natural resources/ commodities backed currency, could become a major “refuge” currency.

Michael Hudson: I’m not sure what a “refuge” currency is, but the ruble will become a self-standing currency. If its balance of trade and payment improves, the problem may be to keep it from rising. If that happens, the question will be whether a rising ruble would oblige buyers of Russian exports to pay more in their own currency. A new multilateral financial system is in the process of being structured as we’re having this discussion. Will there be speculation? Forward selling? Short squeezes and Soros-type raids? Who will be the participants and under what rules …?

Andrei:  How hard a hit would this Russian decision potentially have on the dollar?  And MBS negotiating with the PRC for oil sales in Renminbi.   Do you think that China and Russia will bring down the Petrodollar and will we see a commodities-backed Ruble and a commodities-backed Yuan replacing the Dollar?

Michael Hudson: The petrodollar will remain between the United States and its allies. But alongside it, there will be the Saudi-yuan and India-yuan arrangements for trade in oil, minerals, industrial products and probably international investment. Trade in these products will be able to occur in a number of currencies, probably on a number of exchanges. It is not clear whether some formal or informal arbitrage may develop between these areas. That is part of what is to be designed.  To oversee and regulate the resulting financial and trade arrangements, an alternative to the IMF is needed. The U.S. will not join any organization in which it does not have veto power, so we will see a division of the world into different trading and monetary areas.  The result is not so much a conflict as two quite different operating philosophies as the non-U.S. world develops its alternative to financialized neoliberalism.

Andrei:  The US has basically stolen Russian gold and foreign currency.  The Russians claim that the US has shot itself in the foot and that this will ruin the reputation of the dollar, do you agree with that?

Michael Hudson: Absolutely: Iran after the Shah was overthrown, Afghanistan’s foreign reserves earlier this year, Venezuela’s gold held in the Bank of England, and now Russia. Even timid Germany has asked that airplanes begin flying its gold held in the New York Fed back to Germany!

Andrei: do you think that Russia will retaliate against the US/UK/EU and nationalize/seize their assets in Russia or even in countries friendly to Russia (China?)?

Michael Hudson: Russia is very careful to do everything according to international law – which, of course, has a wide variety of precedents and excuses, and whose courts tend to be dominated by U.S. judges backing U.S. versions of what is legal under whatever it announces to be the “rules-based order of the day” instead of the “rule of law” along UN lines.  To the extent that NATO investors abandon their assets in Russia, these may be sold – perhaps at a distress discount – to buyers who promise to maintain the business. Russia might impose severe fines for abandonment, as when landlords abandon buildings causing local expenditures on cleanup costs. Abandonment causes a “public nuisance.”

This would be a cause for immediate confiscation of current taxes, rent payments and salaries or payments for current supplies (including electricity and fuel) are not paid. Think what would happen if the gas bill were not paid and pipes froze and flooded a property. There is an entire world of penalties that could be applied.

International law provides for some recovery of assets wrongly confiscated – as the U.S. confiscations of Russian-owned reserves and personal property would seem to be. At this point Russia really has nothing to lose. It looks like there is not going to be much Russian-European cross investment for quite some time. Russia finally has given up on its hopes to “turn West” after 1991. It was a dream that turned into a nightmare, and President Putin and Lavrov have expressed their disgust with Europe acting in so uncivilized a matter. So for Russia – and increasingly other countries – NATO Europe and North America are the new barbarians at the gate. Russia is turning

That of course is precisely the aim of U.S. policy – to lock Europe into its own dollarized neoliberal order, blocking any mutual prosperity achieved by trade and investment with Russia or, behind it, with China.  It looks like today’s sanctions are permanent for the next few years. So of course Russia needs to keep formerly NATO-owned enterprises operating. Let the NATO investors recover compensation from what the United States has grabbed. (Hint: the U.S. may simply begin to grab China’s or Latin American or near Eastern reserves to pay NATO investors who have lost in Russia. That is the model of using Afghan money to pay victims of Saudi Arabia’s 9/11 attack two decades ago.)

Andrei:  finally, what question, if any, did I forget to ask and what would you reply to it?

Michael Hudson: Your questions are about specific problems and solutions. But the overall resolution needs to be system-wide, not patchwork. These specific problems cannot really be solved without a far-reaching institutional restructuring of the international financial system, world trade, a world court, and a UN without US veto power.  And such an institutional reformation requires an economic doctrine to provide its basic principles. A New International Economic Order will be constructed on non-neoliberal principles – along the lines of what used to be called socialism, when that was what people expected industrial capitalism to be evolving into.

Andrei: thank you so much for your time and expertise!!

Quick update on the war in the Ukraine

March 24, 2022

The Ukrainians fired a Tochka-U missile at a port where three large landing ship were offloading their freight, the Tochka-U was intercepted by Russian air defenses, but its parts did enough to start a major fire on one of the ships whom the Russians decided to sink in the port to avoid a detonation of the ammo it carried.  This is the first Ukrainian strike which we can consider as a major success of the Ukie military.

Other than that, the major development of the day is the fallout of Putin’s announcement that Russia would only sell energy to hostile countries in Rubles.  Biden is in Europe now to discuss energy and the Polish idea of invade the western Ukraine.

Oh, and China backing Russia and really pissing off Uncle Shmuel has been a daily ritual and the Eurolemmings are very upset: https://www.rt.com/news/552565-nato-china-misinformation-ukraine/

Here is a pretty decent map of the current situation as found on Telegram:

See you later!

Andrei

More Sanctions On Russia Will Destroy Europe

March 23, 2022

On February 21 Russia announced that it would recognize the Donbas republics. A day later it did so. The ‘west’ immediately announced sanctions which in fact had been prepared in advance. On February 24 Russian troops crossed the border into Ukraine.

The Russian ruble immediately took a big hit. It has since recovered a bit.

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Today’s news will bring the ruble to a new heights.

Kommersant reports (machine translation):

Putin instructed to convert gas contracts with unfriendly countries into rubles

President Vladimir Putin instructed to issue a directive to Gazprom to convert contracts into rubles for unfriendly countries. In his opinion, supplying Russian goods to the EU, the USA and receiving payment in dollars and euros “does not make any sense for us.” Against this background, the ruble moved to growth on the Moscow Exchange.

“Both the US and the EU have basically defaulted on their obligations to Russia. And now everyone in the world knows that obligations in dollars and euros may not be fulfilled. <…> It is quite obvious that in this regard, it makes no sense for us to supply our goods to both the EU and the USA and receive payment in dollars, euros and a number of other currencies. Therefore, I have decided to implement in the shortest possible time a set of measures to transfer payments for our natural gas supplied to unfriendly countries to Russian rubles,” Mr. Putin said at a meeting with the government.

The President instructed the Central Bank and the government to determine within a week the order of operations for the purchase of rubles on the domestic market by buyers of Russian gas. He claims that Russia will continue to supply gas “in accordance with the volumes and according to the pricing principles concluded in the contracts.”

The dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange fell below 100 rubles. for the first time since March 3rd. As of 15:37, the US currency is trading at 101.55 rubles. (-2 rubles). The euro exchange rate fell by 2.85 rubles to 111.65 rubles. The maximum dollar fell to 94.99 rubles, the euro – to 109.7 rubles.

The European Union, the United States, Great Britain and a number of other countries have imposed sanctions against Russia in response to the military operation in Ukraine, which has been carried out since February 24 on the orders of Mr. Putin. One of the measures was the freezing of about half of the Central Bank’s gold and foreign exchange reserves ($300 billion).

To pay in ruble one first has to buy rubles. With higher demand for rubles and no change in supplies the price for the Russian currency will go up. As Russia is selling hydrocarbons and other resources for billions of dollars per day the ruble is likely to soon reach record heights.

On February 28 another round of sanctions hit Russia. The part of the Russian central bank reserves that were stored in the ‘west’ were frozen. The central bank immediately pushed its interest rate from 9% to 20% to prevent a flight from the ruble. This helped to lessen the damage but made credit expensive and has hit the future growth potential in Russia.

But with a high new rubles demand from the outside of Russia the central bank will soon be able to lower its interest rate to more normal levels. Credit conditions will ease and investment in Russia, to replace products that had so far been imported, will rise again.

Today’s move to demand rubles for hydrocarbons is only on of the many steps Russia can, and likely will take, to retaliate for sanctions from the ‘west’.

As I wrote previously:

All energy consumption in the U.S. and EU will now come at a premium price. This will push the EU and the U.S. into a recession. As Russia will increase the prices for exports of goods in which it has market power – gas, oil, wheat, potassium, titanium, aluminum, palladium, neon etc – the rise in inflation all around the world will become significant.

Meanwhile the New York Times writes:

As he heads to Europe, President Biden will press U.S. allies to help impose even more aggressive sanctions on Russia.

Biden demands that Europe suicides itself while he is protecting the U.S. industry. I hope that some people in the European capitals are still able to think clear enough to recognize the racket the U.S. is trying to run here:

Together with the economic devastation that U.S. and European sanctions on Russia are causing in their own economies this will end in regime-changes in several European countries. The U.S. is of course again protecting itself from as much as it can at the cost of others.

Source: Bloomberg – bigger

Tony Wood asks:

The question remains, why did all those who for so long foretold this war do so little to stop it, and so much to hasten the disaster Russia has now set in motion?

Indeed. Why didn’t the government of Germany guarantee in writing that it would veto any additional NATO membership? It would have solved at least half of the problem. Why didn’t any other NATO government do so?

And what are they doing now? Where are their initiatives for peace?

Wake up. Otherwise this will end in disaster. Not for Russia but for the rest of Europe.

Posted by b on March 23, 2022 at 14:23 UTC | Permalink

Gonzalo Lira’s latest streams from Kharkov

March 23, 2022

The Russian economy – ‘small’, ‘impotent’, ‘insignificant’: true or false?

April 02, 2021

by Arcturus Le for the Saker Blog

In the west, there is perennial bluster about the putative ‘weakness’ of the Russian economy. It is widely accepted as ‘fact’ that the Russian economy is somewhere miserably outside the ‘Top 10’ global economies by GDP, sinking ever deeper year by year towards #15, embarrassingly behind such smaller countries as South Korea, Canada, Italy and on par with countries like Spain, Australia, and Mexico. In fact, many a snarky joke is bandied about on the Atlanticist web about how ‘Russia’s economy is barely the size of Texas’, etc.

This is a total western generated fabrication. In this article, I will prove the following points: that the Russian economy is actually ranked around the top 5 (and arguably even much higher) most powerful on Earth only behind China, US, Japan, and India; that the 2014 western engineered Ruble crisis crashed the specious ‘Nominal GDP’ of Russia by half while not affecting the true GDP nor economic output of Russia—and how this was affected by the geopolitical factors of the time; and that ‘Nominal GDP’ is a spurious canard that does not apply to Russia due to the fact that Russia is a trade surplus economy, and in fact PPP GDP is the accurate way to measure economies like Russia.

First, let us prove the opening point. Around 2014, oil was pricing steadily in the ~$100-115 per barrel range, as can be seen in the graphic below. Then, in 2014 a major geopolitical crisis developed. The U.S. and the CIA staged the Ukrainian coup called ‘Euromaidan’ that overthrew the legitimate Ukrainian government in the opening months of that year. A month later, Crimea held a democratic referendum and became once again Russian. This was a massive blow to the U.S. geopolitically for which Russia had to be punished as it had now grown too strong, winning a major warm-water port in Sevastopol that could now be used to threaten the western Imperialist/Atlanticist designs in the Middle East by way of a conveniently placed fleet access to the Mediterranean.

The Atlanticists took action and with their Saudi Arabian ‘partners’ (underlings) carried out a plan to crash the price per barrel of oil in order to hurt Russia as much as possible, since its economy at the time was still a bit more dependent upon oil and not as diversified as it is today. Such large tectonic shifts take time so their designs took a year or two to fully percolate down into the markets and by 2015-2016 the price of oil crashed from the aforementioned ~$100-115 per barrel range to the ~$40-50 per barrel range, becoming roughly ~50% of its original price. This chart below clearly demonstrates.

As can be seen, at this exact same time, the Ruble to Dollar conversion rate went from a low of roughly ~37 Rubles to 1 Dollar in 2014 (chart above) soaring to the range of ~60-75 Rubles to 1 Dollar the very next year to exactly coincide with the oil price crash. Miraculously, the devaluation corresponds to the exact timeline and severity of the crash of oil—oil dropped by half from ~$100 to ~$50 and Ruble went from ~35 to ~70 against the Dollar by 2015-2016.

As can be seen by the chart below, Russian GDP according to this source was $2,060 billion in 2014, and like magic by 2016 it was reduced to $1,282 billion. This represents a roughly ~40% decrease in line with the Ruble crash.

But, did Russia change overnight in 2015-2016? Was there panic on the streets, disorder and chaos, complete depredation and disintegration of society? After all, a halving of your GDP almost overnight is of such catastrophic proportions as to be unprecedented in history. Imagine, almost overnight the U.S. GDP going from its current figures to that of its 1960 figures (when it was half of today). What kind of chaos would ensue?

Of course, no such thing occurred in Russia, in fact it was barely noticed. Why? Because, the “Nominal GDP” is a fake, currency manipulated, symbolic number that has no actual basis in reality as pertains to the Russian economy. You see, the Nominal GDP in each country is priced in U.S. Dollars. This works for countries which are Trade Deficit countries. A brief discussion of the difference between Trade Deficit and Trade Surplus must ensue in order to fully understand this point. A country which operates on a Trade Deficit (which is most country’s in the world including the U.S.) simply imports more items than it exports. It is a country that relies on importing goods from other countries to survive. The reason this is important is because, since the global financial system operates on the U.S. Dollar basis in accordance with ‘Dollar Hegemony’ i.e. the Dollar as the reserve currency of the world, this means that when your country IMPORTS items, it is pricing them usually in Dollars. So, in short, this means that the price of your country’s native currency to Dollar conversion is important.

Let’s say you are a Trade Deficit country like India, and let’s say hypothetically that the Indian Rupee converts against the Dollar at 50 Rupees to 1 Dollar. That means, if you are buying an imported item that hypothetically costs $100, if your currency is magically crashed to where the Rupee now trades at 100 Rupees to 1 Dollar, instead of that $100 item costing you (50 x 100) 5,000 Rupees, it now costs you (100 x 100) 10,000 Rupees. So, if your country / entire economy thrives on imports, then one can clearly see how a currency devaluation of 50% can destroy your economy. It means every essential item you import, items vital to the economic engine of your country, have overnight become TWICE as expensive as before. This would lead to economic devastation.

But, what if your country is a TRADE SURPLUS country, a rarer breed of highly self-sufficient economies—a list comprising only the most advanced first world nations such as Germany, Japan, China, etc. Russia is in fact amongst this distinguished list. It has one of the largest trade surpluses in the world, while the U.S. is the world’s biggest Trade Deficit, by far.

So, what happens if you are a Trade Surplus country? This means that your country Exports more than it Imports. It means, in short, that the price conversion of the Dollar to your country’s currency is irrelevant because if you are generating everything your country needs within your own borders (self-sustainability), you are naturally pricing those items you yourself create in your own currency. So, what does it matter if the Russian Ruble goes from 30 Rubles to 1 Dollar, to 1000 Rubles to 1 Dollar? If you’re Russian and you’re not importing anything that’s priced in the Dollar, and you’re buying things within your own country priced in Rubles only, then it makes literally zero difference what the Ruble trades against the Dollar. Inside the borders of your own country, a Ruble is a Ruble, its price conversion to the Dollar has no relevance.

It can be seen here that a native currency devaluation does not have much meaning to a Trade Surplus economy. When a Russian citizen goes to a store and buys items, or a Russian company orders equipment or products, they are ordering them in Rubles because Russia makes their own goods and is self-sustaining. So even if the Ruble skyrocketed to 1 million Rubles to 1 Dollar it would be meaningless if you are not buying anything priced in Dollars.

This means that when the Russian Ruble crashed against the USD in 2015-2016 following the manufactured and engineered geopolitical crisis and massive currency manipulation by the corrupt U.S. global financial system, and the Russian Nominal GDP was shown to crash the equivalent rate (because the Nominal GDP is priced in USD), it was actually meaningless and the Russian economy in fact did not take any such major hit at all. The Russian GDP was shown to devalue from ~2 trillion to 1.2 trillion almost ‘over night’ only because it is being fraudulently priced in USD. All that happened was a mathematical calculation of irrelevant Dollar conversion, but actual Russian production and economic power and output did not experience any such effect whatsoever, it was a smoke and mirrors currency manipulation that existed only in the digital bits and bytes of a computer screen.

So, if we now know that the Russian GDP calculation was incorrect, what is the true way to measure it and what is the real Russian GDP? Since we know that Nominal GDP (which is priced in USD) is a fraudulent way to measure the economic power of Trade Surplus countries like Russia, the answer lies in PPP GDP. And of course, as expected, Russian PPP GDP is so high that it was announced by the IMF itself to have overtaken Germany for the #5 spot last year.

But what is most interesting is, prior to the fake ‘on paper’ devaluation of Russian Nominal GDP following the manufactured crisis of 2014-2016, even Russian Nominal GDP was near the Top 6-8 place (depending on which source you used, IMF, Worldbank, etc.). And now we see the PPP figure matches this rightful, accurate position.

But how do we know the PPP figure is accurate? Can we prove that PPP value is more in line with Russia’s true economic standing than the Nominal GDP value? Well certainly there are a few correlational indicators that can prove this for us. There are several indirect tell-tale signs that experts can use to look past fraudulent currency manipulated GDP numbers and gauge the real economic strength and productive virility of a country.

Let’s take a look at annual oil and electricity usage by country. These are important indicators that very closely correlate with a country’s economic power for reasons that should be self-evident: the more robust one’s economy, the more that country will be utilizing oil and electricity in the daily function and growth of that economic engine.

Some may be unconvinced, until looking at the chart above and seeing how well it correlates to the typical GDP standings. The chart shows oil consumption by country and in fact, the top 10 all looks quite similar to and closely mimics the PPP GDP chart. Russia here is seen at #6 just like in the PPP economic standings (where it is either #5 or #6 depending on source), NOT in #11-15 place as the fraudulent Nominal GDP would have you believe. The skeptic might ask, well wouldn’t a large population country be misrepresented on this chart because they use a lot of oil? To answer that, take Indonesia as an example, it has a population almost double that of Russia, yet it is somewhere in the ~15^th place in the oil consumption chart, and not surprisingly that also roughly reflects its place in the GDP standings as well. So, as one can see the size of your country or population count is not reflected in the oil consumption chart, in fact it correlates directly to a country’s GDP, with one or two outlier/flukes such as Saudi Arabia which appears high on the chart owing to its over-reliance on gratuitously consuming vast amounts of oil in the process of producing oil and gas in their oil centered economy. The skeptic might similarly ask, well doesn’t Russia also produce a lot of oil? Yes but in this case, as I’ve said, its position in the oil consumption perfectly matches its GDP PPP position AND there are further indicators below that lay the doubts to rest.

Now let’s look at two other indicators of a robust economy, electricity production and consumption.

As can be seen here, the figures also mimic and correlate the GDP PPP figures. The same countries that dominate the Top 10 economies are seen either producing or consuming electricity at rates that correlate to their economic power. Not coincidentally, here too we see Russia placing near the Top 5, just like in the GDP PPP and quite unlike the fraudulent ~#11-15 placement we see in Nominal GDP. Now remember, these figures are not merely a product of population size. If that was the case, then countries with far larger populations than Russia like Indonesia, Nigeria, Brazil, Bangladesh, and Pakistan would all be way ahead of Russia on the list of energy consumption—yet they are no where on the list. Similarly, countries with SMALLER populations like Germany would not even be in the top 10. Yet Germany is an economic power house and despite having a much smaller population than Russia, appears close to it on the list in perfect accordance with its place on the GDP PPP chart. This clearly indicates that a country’s energy production/consumption is more closely tied to its economic power than mere population size.

Another indicator we can use is total Gold Reserves. These figures also mimic economic standing as only the most economically powerful countries appear in the top 10 in roughly a similar makeup as to their official GDP standings. Gold has long been a telltale indicator of a country’s might, prestige, and economic status. In the chart below, we can see once again, Russia ranks in almost the exact position of its GDP PPP standing as in all the other charts above.

Of course we can use many other indicators, for instance, global military standings. It is widely accepted Russia is at minimum the 2^nd most powerful military force on Earth, and the military standings roughly correlate with the same countries in roughly the same positions as they are economically—with the familiar faces of U.S., Russia, China, India, Japan, et al, making up the top of the list. Would you really believe that a country with the acknowledged #2 military on earth is only ranked #15 economically, as per the fraudulent, currency manipulated Nominal GDP list? It beggars all logic. Of course the only rational explanation is that only a country whose economy is in the top 5 powerhouses can maintain the 2^nd most powerful military in the world.

One can see that all indicators point to Russia being in the top 5 global economies and that even the fraudulent Nominal GDP figure had Russia at #7 or #8 (depending on source) prior to the artificially engineered oil crisis and currency manipulation that plummeted the Ruble in 2014-2016.

And one last important thing to note. All this discussion revolves around speaking of the Russian economy as if in a vacuum. But one can quickly forget that the Russian economy is arguably the most flagrantly assailed, beleaguered, manipulated, and sabotaged in the world by western/Atlanticist forces. The Russian economy has been under massive sanctions, sabotage, embargoes, etc, since the 2014 crisis began, and yet I have just shown that it is still roughly at the #5 spot right next to the powerhouse of Germany. So, what does this mean? Clearly, that even under intense sabotage and global economic warfare by the entire western political and financial system, even greatly weakened by western forces, the Russian economy is still roughly even with Germany, and only “behind” the U.S., China, Japan, and India (3 of which have vastly larger populations than Russia). Which makes the obvious point that the TRUE Russian economic power, adjusted for the various sanctions and sabotage, is even greater than we can imagine, most likely well ahead of the German and arguably even the Japanese economies.