ARRANGING THE MIDDLE EAST NARRATIVE TO PUSH THE AGENDA FORWARD

South Front

The United States is returning to a level of activity in the Middle East unseen in nearly 4 years. This development has become obvious over the weeks since Joe Biden became US President, firstly with a large deployment into Syria, and subsequently with smaller ones.

On February 9th, the Pentagon said that it was no longer in Syria to protect and exploit oil fields.

It is now back to hunting ISIS. Back to the square one of 2014 and the Obama era. ISIS somehow obliged by ramping up their activities throughout Syria.

It is a mystery that they were able to make such a sharp and sudden resurgence. It should also be noted that the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces allegedly have about 10,000 ISIS terrorists imprisoned.

This statement of intent denotes a massive shift in posture for the US.  When defending the oil fields the US troops were mostly static, when hunting ISIS they can, once again, roam around and carry out various operations.

It appears likely that Idlib is now also in focus – US combat drones were observed surveying Greater Idlib. Idlib is a mixed bag – it has Turkish troops, Russians, the Syrian Arab Army along with terrorists and the moderate opposition, although confusing these two groups can be forgiven. The newest, future, US ally is there – the soon-to-be-rebranded Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham.

An indication of expected escalations and attacks are the Russian and Syrian military drills being carried out near Aleppo during effective wartime. Russia, separately, carried out a naval drill near Tartus.

And, as if by design, long-range missiles attempted to strike Russia’s forces at the Hmeimim Air Base. Drones occasionally attempt to infiltrate its airspace, but missiles are a rare sight.

Meanwhile in Western Daraa, the rebel leaders submitted to Damascus, likely fearing the upcoming chaos and wanting to choose a side.

Finally, the Biden administration is also working to secure Israeli support. The State Department said it doesn’t endorse Trump’s recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, but doesn’t oppose it. It also provided a $9bn weapon sale as consolation. Tel Aviv is likely to use these weapons to counter its nemesis – Iran. It does so by targeting alleged Iranian interests in Syria.

Syria remains the lynchpin of US Middle East policy but the US posture in Iraq and Afghanistan has also changed. Withdrawing from the region is now out of the question – ISIS is making a resurgence, and there are other groups targeting American forces and convoys.

In Afghanistan, specifically, if the withdrawal does not move forward, the Taliban are also likely to begin targeting the US again.

The democrats are back in control and back to spreading democracy in the Middle East.

European Countries Abandon Tens of Thousands of their Children in Syria

ARABI SOURI 

abandoned European children in Al Hol (Hawl) Concentration Camp Hasakah Syria - Kurdish SDF

European countries have invaded and destroyed an endless list of other countries claiming they’re spreading ‘democracy’ and promoting ‘human rights’ in the targeted countries, the practice of these western countries, in reality, is everything but related to human rights or democracy, it’s pure evil.

Tens of thousands of women and children members of families of European terrorists who practiced the ‘Western values’ in the killing, maiming, uprooting, and displacing hundreds of thousands of Syrians, are now abandoned by their countries. These are women who were married to European terrorists and bred tens of thousands of children while their husbands were demonstrating western values in Syria.

The Kurdish SDF terrorists are holding tens of thousands of those family members in addition to thousands of Syrians in concentration camps in regions under their control in the worst inhumane conditions ever imaginable. The captives in the Kurdish-run concentration camps under the US forces’ supervision hail from 57 countries, 24 of those countries are western countries.

Moussa Assi has more in this report for the Lebanese-based Al Mayadeen news channel, followed by the transcript of the English translation:

Their number is 64 thousand, they are members of the families of terrorists who came from 57 countries to fight in Syria, 80% of them are women and children whose countries, most of which are Western countries, refuse to take them back in contradiction to the stipulations of human rights laws that require states to bear the responsibility of their citizens outside their lands, just as it is the case of the other citizens and regardless of any consideration.

The result is tens of thousands of children and women who are held in very harsh conditions in the camps controlled by the Qasd militia in northern Syria.

Fionnuala D. Ni Aolain – Special Rapporteur on the promotion and protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms while countering terrorism: Thousands of children have been convicted on charges that classify them as adults because of their belonging to the families of which they were born. We see countries that have taken an arbitrary line towards them, saying that they are not actual children because they were born into similar families, and this is clear to Western governments.

Western countries present various arguments for not taking their citizens back, including that they must stay close to the place where the crimes were committed in order for them to receive a fair trial.

Fionnuala D. Ni Aolain – Special Rapporteur on the promotion and protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms while countering terrorism: The idea of holding tens of thousands awaiting trial is unrealistic and intended to keep these people away from their home countries. As for saying that they pose a threat to societies, let me say that the long-term risks are of leaving these children there.

Out of more than 250 French children born from marriages of ISIS terrorists in Syria, France agreed to take back only 35 children, and these are either orphans or their mothers agreed on the condition that they abandon them and remain in the Syrian camp.

Western human rights countries [sic] refuse to take back the children of their terrorists who fought in Syria. They issued a final judgment on these children that they are terrorists from birth and represent a later danger to Western societies.

Moussa Assi – Geneva, Al-Mayadeen.

End of the transcript.

TURKISH PROXIES LAUNCH MISSILES AT JOINT RUSSIAN-SYRIAN HQ IN SOUTHERN IDLIB

South Fronts

In Syria’s Idlib, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham seems to be consolidating control, with neither the Syrian Arab Army nor its Russian support making any significant progress in recent days. This lack of progress comes down to the fact that they still support the existing ceasefire regime while Turkey has refused to honor its responsibility and clear out radical elements from the region.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is operating with increasing impunity, even as the Biden Administration’s think tanks strive to rebrand them as non-terrorists and cooperate with them in future endeavors. At the same time, the Russian-Turkish patrols in along the separation line in Idlib are taking place, largely without issue, with militants that enjoy Turkish protection that carry out small-scale but regular attacks on the Syrian Army and even on Russian targets.

On February 7th, in Southern Idlib in Kafr Nabi, Al-Qaeda-affiliate Ansar al-Tawhid, a HTS ally, targeted a Syrian and Russian position, claiming to kill 11 as a result. The militants in Idlib appear to be moving outward, with attacks popping up far from their initial positions.

The contact line and the demilitarized zone have been allegedly imposed for a while now, but it is plain to see that it is ineffective to remove the terrorist threat. Moscow continues to put effort toward enforcing the ceasefire agreement, documenting every violation, and responding to most of them.

Again, on February 7th, the Russian forces were also targeted, with two UAVs being downed within 24 hours. One was downed by HTS-affiliated militants in the skies near Idlib, while the other was downed by the SDF, likely following a US order.

The other area that is becoming increasingly volatile is northeastern Syria, with the SDF becoming more and more assertive in their operations.

The SDF continues its activities against ISIS. It launched a revenge operation against the terrorists in Deir Ezzor, over the killing of two officials. At the same time, SDF fights the Turkish forces and the Turkish-backed militants in the area. With the downing of the Russian drone, they appear to be signaling that there will be no cooperation with anybody but the Americans, who have undertaken no movements in recent days.

Terrorists are organizing attacks, and carrying out provocations throughout Syria, and mostly in the southern regions. They pop out of either Idlib, or from the US-controlled areas in northeastern Syria.

Israel has remained static over the last several days, following a large airstrike on reported Iranian positions. The US allies in the face of SDF, however, are causing more than enough trouble for the SAA and Russia.

The HTS is likely also to start more assertive operations against the SAA and Russia. In recent days, the Biden Administration has begun its efforts to rebrand them as a reformed group with no remaining terrorists.

Furthermore, ISIS activity is at a long-time high, and it is likely no coincidence that it began happening as soon as Joe Biden and the Democrats returned to power in Washington.

After Idlib and the Kurds… What about the Euphrates and the Tigris? بعد إدلب والكرد.. ماذا عن الفرات ودجلة؟

 ARABI SOURI 

Euphrates River - Syria and Iraq Water - Turkey
حسني محلي
International relations researcher and specialist in Turkish affairs

The following is the English translation from Arabic of the latest article by Turkish career journalist Husni Mahali he published in the Lebanese Al-Mayadeen news site Al-Mayadeen Net:

After Turkey has become a main party in the overall developments of the Syrian file with the years of the so-called ‘Arab Spring’, Ankara has developed many scenarios and calculations for its future relations with Damascus, and through it with the rest of the region, especially Iraq which is bordering Turkey, Syria, and Iran.

The waters of the Euphrates, Tigris and other small rivers (about 12 rivers with Syria and 3 with Iraq) come within these calculations, especially with the continuing dry seasons, which seem to be reflected in one way or another on Ankara’s water policies in the future with the two mentioned countries.

The water of the Euphrates has always been an important material in Turkish bargaining with Syria and Iraq, together or separately since Turkey began building dams on the Euphrates River, the first of which was the Kaban Dam which was inaugurated in 1974, and then the Karakaya Dam in 1987. The Ataturk Dam, which was inaugurated in 1991 was the most important in the water crisis between Turkey and both Syria and Iraq, especially after Prime Minister Suleiman Demirel said in 1991 ‘The Arab countries sell their oil, so why we do not sell our water also?’.

Ankara has insisted from the beginning on building dams after it refused to sign the international agreement (1997) that regulates the joint use of shared international water, including the Nile, the Euphrates and the Tigris, and it says that the last two are Turkish rivers crossing the border and they are not two shared rivers and that it has the right to dispose of its waters as it wishes, taking into account the interests of the downstream countries.

The roots of the Turkish water crisis with Syria and Iraq go back to the year 1920 when ‘tripartite and bilateral’ agreements were signed between Turkey and both Syria (a French colony) and Iraq (a British colony) to divide the water according to international standards followed at the time. The ‘Lausanne’ agreement (1923) by which Western countries recognized the modern Turkish republic, the heir to the Ottoman Empire, included a clause regarding the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, stating: “No country from these three countries has the right to build a dam or a reservoir or divert a river course without coordinating with other countries to ensure that their interests are not harmed.’

With the independence of Syria and Iraq, water remained a fundamental problem hindering the establishment of lasting friendly relations between the three countries, which has enough other problems that prevented them from developing relations between them, with the Syrian and Iraqi doubts always regarding the possibility that the Turkish side would use water as a weapon against them.

The documents of the US embassy in Tehran (November 4, 1979) indicated that “the CIA proposed to the Director General of the National Water Corporation, Suleiman Demirel in the year 1955-1956, to build large dams on the Euphrates, to be a weapon in Ankara’s hand against Syria, whose relations were bad at that time with Turkey.’

This explains the failure of the agreement signed by President Turgut Ozal in 1987 with the late President Hafez al-Assad, after it was affected by the tensions in the relations between the two countries, due to Ankara’s accusation of Damascus of supporting the PKK, if we ignore the psychological-influencing issue of the Iskenderun Strip.

According to the 1987 agreement, the Turkish side pledged to leave 500 cubic meters per second of the Euphrates water for Syria (42%) and Iraq (58%), provided that this amount would increase to reach 650 cubic meters after 5 years, in exchange for Damascus giving up this support, without this agreement preventing Ankara from building the dams of Perajik (50 km from the border with Syria) and Qaraqamish (3 km from the Syrian border) and two dams on the Tigris River, while the National Water Corporation plans to build a total of 22 dams on the two mentioned rivers, to reach the amount of the water that will be stored in these dams amounts to about 140 billion cubic meters.

Ankara plans to irrigate 1.8 million hectares of agricultural land with this water, and it also aims to generate 27 billion kilowatt hours of electricity (23% of Turkey’s consumption) from these dams, in addition to about 750 dams of various sizes (550 of which are large dams) built by Turkey on dozens of small and large rivers, the length of which exceeds 20 thousand km inside the Turkish borders.

President Erdogan’s statements last week in which when he said, “Turkey is not rich in water, as some believe,” raised many questions about the possibilities of using water as a weapon in Ankara’s potential bargains with Syria and Iraq, and most importantly with the “SDF” and the Kurdish People’s Protection Units that control the East of the Euphrates with the support of Washington, which Ankara fears that it seeks to establish an independent Kurdish entity in the region as is the case in northern Iraq.

Official Turkish circles develop many scenarios regarding water policies that include serious studies about water sources, including rain and groundwater, in addition to the mentioned rivers, which number more than 100.

These studies estimate the total capacity of surface (rain) and groundwater that can be utilized at about 115 billion cubic meters, of which about 60 billion cubic meters are used annually. These figures prompted Ankara to implement many projects to build underground dams, a new technology that contributes to storing groundwater as is the case in the rivers on which Ankara builds its dams.

These accounts did not prevent Ankara from continuing to build hundreds of dams on dozens of rivers that flow into its lands and flow into the seas (Aegean, Mediterranean, Marmara and Black), or leave it to other neighboring countries, including Iran, Georgia, Armenia, Bulgaria and Greece, or come from these countries, in. At the time when Turkey succeeded in laying the pipeline (80 km) that carries water under the sea (75 million cubic meters annually) to Turkish northern Cyprus with plans to sell this water to the Greek Cypriots, and even to ‘Israel’, the late President Turgut Ozal failed in his water pipeline project to ‘Israel’ through Syria and Lebanon, and another pipeline extending to the Gulf countries via Jordan to sell the water of the Saihan and Caihan rivers to these countries.

Many academic studies in the West see the Turkish datum as a sufficient reason for both Iraq and Syria to fear about the possible repercussions of Ankara’s policies with the two countries mentioned with the Kurdish element in them, everyone knows that Ankara’s implementation of its projects on the Euphrates, Tigris and other small rivers will put Iraq and Syria in front of serious challenges that will be cause serious implications for agriculture, food security, drinking water and energy generation, especially with the environmental fluctuations that threaten of drought years, according to all scientific studies worldwide.

As Ankara continues its current policies in Syria and Iraq, it has become clear that sooner or later it will use water as an influential card in its bargaining with Damascus, Baghdad and the Kurds, who are the primary beneficiaries of the waters of the Euphrates, the Tigris and other small rivers, given that the Syrian dams are in the “SDF”. This explains the presence of Ankara in Afrin (Afrin River) west of the Euphrates in general, in addition to the area extending from Ras al-Ain to Tal Abyad, where many of the small Turkish rivers enter Syria, without ignoring their presence in Jarablus, the entrance to the Euphrates into Syria, and its attempt to control Ayn al-Arab (Kobane), which is on the eastern bank of the river, similarly is the case in northern Iraq, as Turkey succeeded in establishing many military bases in the strategic mountains overlooking or near the waterways, including the Tigris and the Great Zab.

The bet or hope remains in the possibilities of returning to friendly relations between Ankara and each of Damascus and Baghdad, and even Iran, which is also a party to the water issue, especially with Iraq, after Ankara succeeded after 2003 in establishing friendly relations with Syria, Iraq, Iran and the rest of the countries of the region; President Erdogan, and before him President Abdullah Gul, announced more than once that “there is no longer a so-called water problem with the two aforementioned neighbors so that Mesopotamia will return again as the cradle of the civilizations that lived in it thousands of years ago.” This is what has been blown in the wind and the feelings of brotherhood and friendship between Ankara and both Baghdad and Damascus have become forgotten, after the policies of “zeroing problems with neighbors” succeeded in “zeroing the neighbors”, and water will soon be their most difficult concern!

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بعد إدلب والكرد.. ماذا عن الفرات ودجلة؟

حسني محلي
باحث علاقات دولية ومختصص بالشأن التركي

حسني محلي 

المصدر: الميادين نت

4 شباط

تضع الأوساط التركية الرسمية العديد من السيناريوهات في ما يتعلق بالسياسات المائية التي تتضمّن دراسات جدية حول مصادر المياه، ومنها الأمطار والمياه الجوفية، إضافةً إلى الأنهار المذكورة التي يزيد عددها على 100 نهر. 

بعد إدلب والكرد.. ماذا عن الفرات ودجلة؟

بعد أن أصبحت تركيا طرفاً أساسياً في مجمل تطورات الملف السوري مع سنوات ما يسمى بـ”الربيع العربي”، وضعت أنقرة العديد من السيناريوهات والحسابات لعلاقاتها المستقبلية مع دمشق، وعبرها مع باقي دول المنطقة، وفي مقدمتها العراق المجاور لتركيا وسوريا وإيران. 

وتأتي مياه الفرات ودجلة والأنهار الصغيرة الأخرى (حوالى 12 نهراً مع سوريا و3 مع العراق) ضمن هذه الحسابات، وخصوصاً مع استمرار مواسم الجفاف التي يبدو أنها ستنعكس بشكل أو بآخر على سياسات أنقرة المائية مستقبلاً مع الدولتين المذكورتين. 

وكانت مياه الفرات دائماً مادة مهمة في المساومات التركية مع سوريا والعراق معاً أو على انفراد، منذ أن بدأت تركيا ببناء السّدود على نهر الفرات، وأولها سدّ كابان الذي تمّ افتتاحه في العام 1974، ثم سدّ كاراكايا في العام 1987. وكان سدّ أتاتورك الذي تمّ افتتاحه في العام 1991 هو الأهم في أزمة المياه بين تركيا وكل من سوريا والعراق، وخصوصاً بعد أن قال رئيس الوزراء سليمان ديمريل في العام 1991 “إن الدول العربية تبيع نفطها، فلماذا لا نبيع أيضاً مياهنا؟”. 

وقد أصرّت أنقرة منذ البداية على بناء السّدود بعد أن رفضت التوقيع على الاتفاقية الدولية (1997) التي تنظم عملية الاستخدام المشترك لمياه المجاري الدولية المشتركة، ومنها النيل والفرات ودجلة، وهي تقول إنّ الأخيرين نهران تركيان عابران للحدود، وليسا نهرين مشتركين، ومن حقّها التصرف بمياهها كما تشاء، مع مراعاة مصالح دول المصب. 

تعود جذور أزمة المياه التركية مع سوريا والعراق إلى العام 1920، عندما تم التوقيع على اتفاقيات “ثلاثية وثنائية” بين وتركيا وكل من سوريا (مستعمرة فرنسية) والعراق (مستعمرة بريطانية) لتقسيم المياه وفق المعايير الدولية المتبعة آنذاك. وتضمّنت اتفاقية “لوزان” (1923) التي اعترفت الدّول الغربية بموجبها بالجمهورية التركية الحديثة، وريثة الدولة العثمانية، بنداً خاصاً بنهري دجلة والفرات جاء فيه: “لا يحق لأية دولة من هذه الدول الثلاث إقامة سد أو خزان أو تحويل مجرى نهر من دون أن تنسق مع الدول الأخرى لضمان عدم إلحاق الأذى بمصالحها”. 

ومع استقلال سوريا والعراق، بقيت المياه مشكلة أساسية تعرقل إقامة علاقات ودية دائمة بين الدول الثلاث التي لديها ما يكفيها من المشاكل الأخرى التي منعتها من تطوير العلاقات في ما بينها، مع استمرار الشكوك السورية والعراقية دائماً باحتمالات أن يستخدم الجانب التركي المياه كسلاح ضدها.

وقد بيّنت وثائق السفارة الأميركية في طهران (4 تشرين الثاني/نوفمبر 1979) “أن المخابرات الأميركية CIA اقترحت على مدير عام مؤسسة المياه الوطنية سليمان ديميريل في العام 1955-1956 بناء سدود كبيرة على الفرات، لتكون سلاحاً بيد أنقرة ضد سوريا التي كانت علاقاتها سيئة آنذاك مع تركيا”.

ويفسر ذلك فشل الاتفاقية التي وقع عليها الرئيس تورغوت أوزال في العام 1987 مع الرئيس الراحل حافظ الأسد، بعد أن تأثرت بالتوترات التي شهدتها العلاقات بين البلدين، بسبب اتهام أنقرة لدمشق بدعم حزب العمال الكردستاني، إذا ما تجاهلنا قضية لواء الإسكندرون ذات التأثير النفسيّ.

وقد تعهّد الجانب التركي وفق اتفاقيّة 1987 بترك 500 متر مكعب في الثانية من مياه الفرات لكل من سوريا (42%) والعراق (58%)، على أن تزداد هذه الكمية لتصل بعد 5 سنوات إلى 650 متراً مكعباً، مقابل تخلي دمشق عن هذا الدعم، من دون أن تمنع هذه الاتفاقية أنقرة من بناء سدي بيراجيك (50 كم عن الحدود مع سوريا) وقرقميش (على بعد 3 كم من الحدود السورية) وسدين على نهر دجلة، فيما تخطط مؤسسة المياه الوطنية لبناء ما مجموعه 22 سداً على النهرين المذكورين، لتصل كمية المياه التي سيتم تخزينها في هذه السدود إلى حوالى 140 مليار متر مكعب.

وتخطّط أنقرة لريّ 1.8 مليون هكتار من الأراضي الزراعية بهذه المياه، كما تهدف إلى توليد 27 مليار كيلو واط /ساعة من الكهرباء (23% من استهلاك تركيا) من هذه السدود، إضافةً إلى حوالى 750 سداً بمختلف الأحجام (550 منها سد كبير) بنتها تركيا على عشرات الأنهار الصغيرة والكبيرة، ويزيد طولها داخل الحدود التركية على 20 ألف كم. 

وجاءت أقوال الرئيس إردوغان الأسبوع الماضي، إذ قال “إن تركيا ليست غنية بالمياه، كما يعتقد البعض”، لتثير العديد من التساؤلات حول احتمالات استخدام المياه كسلاح في مساومات أنقرة المحتملة مع سوريا والعراق، والأهمّ مع “قسد” ووحدات حماية الشعب الكردية التي تسيطر على شرق الفرات بدعم من واشنطن، التي تتخوّف أنقرة من أن تسعى إلى إقامة كيان كردي مستقل في المنطقة، كما هو الحال في الشمال العراقي. 

وتضع الأوساط التركية الرسمية العديد من السيناريوهات في ما يتعلق بالسياسات المائية التي تتضمّن دراسات جدية حول مصادر المياه، ومنها الأمطار والمياه الجوفية، إضافةً إلى الأنهار المذكورة التي يزيد عددها على 100 نهر. 

وتقدّر هذه الدراسات الطاقة الإجمالية للمياه السطحية (الأمطار) والجوفية التي يمكن الاستفادة منها بحوالى 115 مليار متر مكعب، يتم استغلال حوالى 60 مليار متر مكعب منها سنوياً. ودفعت هذه الأرقام أنقرة إلى تنفيذ العديد من المشاريع لبناء السدود الجوفية، وهي تقنية جديدة تساهم في تخزين المياه الجوفية، كما هو الحال في الأنهار التي تبني عليها أنقرة سدودها. 

ولم تمنع هذه الحسابات أنقرة من الاستمرار في بناء مئات السدود على عشرات الأنهار التي تنبع في أراضيها وتصب في البحار (إيجة والأبيض المتوسط ومرمرة والأسود)، أو تغادرها إلى دول مجاورة أخرى، ومنها إيران وجورجيا وأرمينيا وبلغاريا واليونان، أو تأتيها من هذه الدول، في الوقت الذي نجحت تركيا في مد الأنبوب (80 كم) الذي ينقل المياه تحت البحر (75 مليون متر مكعب سنوياً) إلى شمال قبرص التركية مع حسابات لبيع هذه المياه للقبارصة اليونانيين، وحتى “إسرائيل”، فقد فشل الرئيس الراحل تورغوت أوزال في مشروعه لمد أنابيب المياه إلى “إسرائيل” مروراً بسوريا ولبنان، وأنبوب آخر يمتد إلى دول الخليج عبر الأردن لبيع مياه نهري سايهان وجايهان لهذه الدول.

وترى العديد من الدراسات الأكاديمية في الغرب في المعطيات التركية سبباً كافياً لتخوّف كل من العراق وسوريا من الانعكاسات المحتملة لسياسات أنقرة مع الدولتين المذكورتين بالعنصر الكردي فيهما، فالجميع يعرف أن تنفيذ أنقرة مشاريعها على نهري الفرات ودجلة والأنهار الصغيرة الأخرى سيضع العراق وسوريا أمام تحديات جدية ستكون لها انعكاسات خطيرة على الزراعة والأمن الغذائي ومياه الشرب وتوليد الطاقة، وخصوصاً مع التقلبات البيئية التي تهدد بسنوات الجفاف، وفق كل الدراسات العلمية عالمياً. 

ومع استمرار أنقرة في سياساتها الحالية في سوريا والعراق، بات واضحاً أنها، عاجلاً أم آجلاً، ستستخدم المياه كورقة مؤثرة في مساوماتها مع دمشق وبغداد والكرد، المستفيد الأول من مياه الفرات ودجلة وباقي الأنهار الصغيرة، باعتبار أن السدود السورية في “قسد”. ويفسر ذلك تواجد أنقرة في عفرين (نهر عفرين) غرب الفرات عموماً، إضافةً إلى المنطقة الممتدة من رأس العين إلى تل أبيض، حيث العديد من الأنهار التركية الصغيرة التي تدخل منها إلى سوريا، من دون أن نتجاهل تواجدها في جرابلس، مدخل الفرات إلى سوريا، ومحاولتها السيطرة على عين العرب (كوباني)، وهي على الضفة الشرقية للنهر، وهو الحال في شمال العراق، إذ نجحت تركيا في إقامة العديد من القواعد العسكرية في الجبال الاستراتيجية المطلة أو القريبة من المجاري المائية، ومنها دجلة والزاب الكبير. 

ويبقى الرهان أو الأمل في احتمالات العودة إلى علاقات الصداقة بين أنقرة وكل من دمشق وبغداد، وحتى إيران، وهي أيضاً طرف في قضية المياه، وخصوصاً مع العراق، فبعد أن نجحت أنقرة بعد العام 2003 في إقامات علاقات ودية مع سوريا والعراق وإيران وباقي دول المنطقة، أعلن الرئيس إردوغان، وقبله الرئيس عبد الله جول، أكثر من مرة، أنه “لم تعد هناك ما يسمى بمشكلة المياه مع الجارتين المذكورتين، ليعود ما بين النهرين من جديد مهداً للحضارات التي عاشت فيها قبل آلاف السنين”، وهو الكلام الذي أصبح في مهب الريح، كما أصبحت مشاعر الأخوة والصداقة بين أنقرة وكل من بغداد ودمشق في ذاكرة النسيان، بعد أن نجحت سياسات “تصفير المشاكل مع الجيران” في “تصفير الجيران”، وستكون المياه قريباً همها الأصعب!

فيديوات ذات صلة

مقالات ذات صلة

War on Syria: Israel and the Kurdish Card

South Front

 01.02.2021 

The conflict in Syria does not seem to be nearing its end despite the diplomatic efforts to find a solution for it. Every participant in the standoff is undertaking actions to pursue their interests, and many of them evidently are in conflict with one another.

Israel and its never-ending fight against the ‘Iranian threat’, as usual, appears to be in the middle of it.

On January 31st, along the separation line of the Golan Heights, a Syrian Arab Army (SAA) post was attacked by unknown gunmen. They came from the Israeli-occupied side, and a loud explosion followed. No casualties were reported, and it is possible that Israel was behind it, since the IDF has done raids such as these in the past, including twice in 2020. According to pro-militant sources, the IDF operation was carried out to deter purported Iranian forces in the area.

Israeli media reported that several months ago that in Damascus itself, an unnamed “Western Intelligence Agency” carried out a raid the headquarters of Iran’s Quds Force Unit 840. While the report remains questionable, at minimum, it can be considered as a direct threat to Tehran and Damascus.

In Northeast Syria, a severe conflict appears to be in the making, as US President Joe Biden seems to want an extremely negative outward scenario in order to reverse the limited involvement approach of Donald Trump.  Soon, MSM may get a new ‘war for democracy’ to cover, so, the population can focus less on what is transpiring inside the US.

The US-supported Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) appear to be the prime candidates to lead the situation towards critical mass. Hillary Clinton, and her daughter Chelsea are already moving with propaganda preparations: a Kurdish soap opera, focused on the lives and struggle of Kurdish women who fought not only against ISIS, but also fought for their liberty and their rights.

The Kurdish “freedom fighters” also fight against Turkey and reject a political settlement with Damascus.

Still, the SDF is now emboldened, it has support from the US, and little else in the region, except the poison hand of “friendship” from Israel. If all hell breaks loose, however, it is dubious whether or not Tel Aviv would come running to help.

This, however, does not stop the Kurdish leadership from employing harsh approaches to suppress local discontent with its anti-Syrian approaches. Just recently in Al-Hasakah, a pro-government protest was democratically put down by live fire and killings by the SDF’s “freedom fighters”.

It is an open secret the SDF-controlled area is in fact run by the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) “shadow government” and the SDF itself is full of PKK members, including the SDF commander in chief himself. This creates conditions for a continuous fight against the Turkish forces, and provides additional motivation for the SDF rejection of a political settlement with the Damascus government.

The Kurdish leaders are happy to receive weapons and funds from the US in exchange for loyalty to the project of the dismantling of the Syrian state.

Emboldened by the supposed support from the US, and the recent large deployments that have been carried out, the SDF and co. have recently become more active in their attempts to hinder the interests of Damascus, Russia and Iran.

The SDF’s mismanagement of the situation is further evidenced by the permanent tensions with Arab locals in the controlled areas and the deep humanitarian problems in SDF-run camps for displaced persons, including those affiliated with ISIS members. There are about 27,000 children in the SDF-run Al-Hol camp, where families of ISIS members and supporters are held. ISIS activity has seen an incredible increase in 2021, and the terrorist group would be more than content with “adopting” these young recruits.

With the new administration in Washington, the wind is blowing towards an incredibly violent scenario. The resumption of the ‘active’ policies to ‘deter’ Russia, Iran and the ‘Assad regime’ by playing the Kurdish card creates conditions for a further destabilization of Syria’s northeast. In some scenarios, the situation could swiftly descend into complete chaos.

To avoid this scenario, Kurdish leadership needs to remember that they are short on allies in the region and adapt a more constructive approach towards a political settlement with Damascus. Otherwise it is “highly likely” that dark clouds are soon to come on the horizon and the SDF card will once again become a small coin in the Big Middle Eastern Game.

The priorities of the US administration أولويات الإدارة الأميركيّة

**English Machine translation Please scroll down for the Arabic original version **

The priorities of the US administration

Saada Mustafa Arshid

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Untitled-104.png
*Palestinian politician residing in Jenin, occupied Palestine.

The rapidly developing Covid 19 virus continues to show the ability to transcend its nature as an epidemic threatening human health and life, but rather has become a political player, and an element of influence in the fields of economy, society and education, and it has played a major and important role in the recent US elections, and contributed to the success of the atmosphere Biden before Trump, who underestimated the virus at first, then failed to devise and implement policies to deal with it and reduce its multiple dangers that go beyond health, and in an exciting statement to the new US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin, in which he considered that one of the priorities of his ministry’s work is to work to combat the epidemic, which It has become a threat to US national security, that exposed the insecurities of the brightly looking regime, it was like an unexpected tsunami, removing powders from the true form of the ugly racist capitalist system.

The internal files on Biden’s agenda follow china and its South and East Sea, where China has geographical disputes with more than one of Washington’s allies, and there are U.S. fleets, where that rising and fast-growing dragon, which is the most serious threat to Global American supremacy. In Biden’s early days at the White House, he issued clear warnings to China of any expansionist intentions, and affirmed the support of his allies, who are threatened by Chinese growth and Chinese demands, led by Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines, and the list goes on, but China responded to those warnings with the well-known eastern cold, Stressing that the issue of containing China is nothing but illusions, and in this file, the current administration does not deviate much from the late administration in its approach.

In this east, namely Yemen and Iran, that the Biden administration considers on its list of priorities, and they are the files of Yemen and Iran, and the US administration has approaches different from its predecessor in these two files. The Yemen war no longer tolerates the result of not achieving any of its goals and it does not seem that it will act except to achieve the opposite of those goals. On top of which is the strengthening of the Iranian position in the southwest of the Arabian Peninsula, and in a position that controls the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and nothing remains that the Saudi forces and their allies do except killing, demolition and harm, which has made their humanitarian and moral costs high without a strategic return worth such a cost. Moreover, the one who lit its fire (the alliance of Mohammed bin Zayed and Muhammad bin Salman) does not enjoy the respect and appreciation of the new administration, and Washington has issued reports that it is reviewing the decision of the previous administration that included the Houthis and their political framework (Ansar Allah group) on the lists of terrorism.


Iran, in turn, is showing remarkable activity, through the constant travel of its Foreign Minister and his visits to influential capitals, as well as in its wide military maneuvers, and in its demonstration of its strength on land, sea and air, in the field of drones and precision missiles, and in its successive revelations about the capabilities of its war industries despite the blockade it suffers and the suffocating economic hardship Iran is waiting for Washington to take the initiative, to revive the nuclear agreement that President Biden made an effort to accomplish, when he was former Vice President Obama.


Last Monday, the first practical indications of the US response appeared, through the statements of the Foreign Minister Blinkin to “NBC” that his country is ready to return to the agreement if Iran is ready for that, and he warned that Iran has become very close to the ability to manufacture important components that give it the ability. On the production of nuclear weapons, and preventing this from an American national security issue, but the demon of American details will try and must impose additional conditions, perhaps the most important of them, for Iran to deliver the uranium it enriched during the suspension of the agreement to the IAEA. In addition to the conditions that Iran is demanding until its discussion, Iran will not be in the process of discussing it, including Iran’s withdrawal from Syria, Iraq and Yemen, the disarmament of Hezbollah, the dismantling of Iranian missile systems, issues that the whole world has not been able to achieve for four decades of wars, blockades and sanctions, but the process of biting and fingering Tehran, but the finger-biting process between Tehran and Washington must come to an end, as each of them has the same desire and interest in reaching an agreement.

As for the rest of the files in our east, the new administration does not pay high attention to them, and does not include them in the list of priorities, as it has become typical crises, as it manages each crisis itself, and it does not have the character of urgency, and do not poses a danger, including what is happening in Iraq and Syria, where the Americans do no more than protect the Kurds (SDF) through 2,500 soldiers, and it is an old US policy of selling illusions by using the Kurds who are quick to respond, and who have always left losers, so they have always continued the game even if at the expense of their blood. Lebanon is mired in corruption and the issues of the governor of its central bank, and the crisis of the formation of the government, as well as in the Palestinian file, the crisis continues awaiting the Knesset elections next March, meanwhile the Palestinians are consuming time in electoral projects and national dialogues, which are supposed to rebuild the political system and restore unity to what remains of Palestine. It often ends with results that are inconsistent with optimism. The new US administration will not provide more than some money, reactivate the US Aid, open an office or a consulate, a visiting envoy to Ramallah, a guest delegation in Washington, but it may provide some verbal support, the official Palestinian exaggerates in his assessment, such as condemning the establishment of an outpost here, or the martyrdom of a Palestinian civilian at a checkpoint. there, It’s staying in the same square.

أولويات الإدارة الأميركيّة

سعادة مصطفى أرشيد

*سياسي فلسطيني مقيم في جنين – فلسطين المحتلة

لا يزال فايروس كوفيد 19 السريع التطوّر، يبدي القدرة على أنه تجاوز طبيعته كوباء يهدّد صحة الإنسان وحياته، وإنما أصبح لاعباً سياسياً، وعنصراً من عناصر التأثير في مجالات الاقتصاد والمجتمع والتعليم، وقد كان صاحب دور رئيس ومهمّ في الانتخابات الأميركية الأخيرة، وساهم في إنجاح جو بايدن أمام ترامب، الذي استخفّ بالفايروس في البداية، ثم فشل في اجتراح وتنفيذ سياسات للتعامل معه والحدّ من أخطاره المتعددة التي تتجاوز الصحة، وفي تصريح مثير لوزير الدفاع الأميركي الجديد لويد أوستن، اعتبر فيه أنّ من أولويات عمل وزارته، العمل على مكافحة الوباء، الذي بات من مهدّدات الأمن القومي الأميركي، وكاشفاً عورات النظام الزاهي المنظر، فقد كان أشبه بعاصفة تسونامي غير متوقعة، أزالت المساحيق عن الشكل الحقيقي للنظام الرأسمالي العنصري القبيح.

يلي الملفات الداخلية على أجندة بايدن، ملف الصين وبحرها الجنوبي والشرقي، حيث للصين منازعات جغرافية مع أكثر من دولة حليفة لواشنطن، وهناك تنتشر الأساطيل الأميركية، حيث يمكن محاصرة ذلك التنين الصاعد والسريع النمو، والذي يمثل التهديد الأخطر للتفوّق الأميركي العالمي، في أيام بايدن الأولى في البيت الأبيض، أطلق تحذيرات واضحة للصين من أية نيات توسعية، وأكد على دعم حلفائه، الذين يتهدّدهم التنامي الصيني والمطالبات الصينيّة، وعلى رأسهم اليابان وكوريا الجنوبية وتايوان والفلبين، والقائمة تطول، ولكن الصين ردّت على تلك التحذيرات بالبرود الشرقي المعروف، مؤكدة أنّ مسألة احتواء الصين ما هي إلا أوهام وفي هذا الملف لا تبتعد الإدارة الحالية كثيراً عن الإدارة الراحلة في مقاربتها.

في هذا الشرق، هناك ملفان تعتبرهما إدارة بايدن في قائمة أولوياتها، وهما ملفا اليمن وإيران، وللإدارة الأميركية مقاربات مختلفة عن سابقتها في هذين الملفين، فحرب اليمن، لم تعد تحتمل نتيجة عدم تحقيقها لأيّ من أهدافها ولا يبدو أنها ستفعل إلا على تحقيق عكس تلك الأهداف وعلى رأسها تعزيز التمركز الإيراني في جنوب غرب جزيرة العرب، وفي موقع مسيطر على مضيق باب المندب، ولم يبق من شيء تفعله القوات السعودية وحلفاؤها إلا القتل والهدم والأذى، مما جعل أكلافها الإنسانية والأخلاقية عالية من دون مقابل استراتيجي يستحق كلفة كهذه، وفوق ذلك فإنّ من أشعل نارها (تحالف محمد بن زايد ومحمد بن سلمان) لا يحظى بالاحترام والتقدير لدى الإدارة الجديدة، وقد صدر عن واشنطن ما يفيد بأنها تراجع قرار الإدارة السابقة الذي أدرج الحوثيين وإطارهم السياسي (جماعة أنصار الله) على قوائم الإرهاب.

إيران بدورها، تبدي نشاطاً ملحوظاً، وذلك عبر السفر الدائم لوزير خارجيتها وزياراته للعواصم المؤثرة، كما في مناوراتها العسكرية الواسعة، واستعراضها لقوتها في البر والبحر والجو وفي مجال الطائرات المسيّرة والصواريخ الدقيقة، وفي كشوفها المتلاحقة عن قدرات صناعاتها الحربية برغم الحصار الذي تعانيه والضائقة الاقتصادية الخانقة، وهي تنتظر أن تقوم واشنطن بالمبادرة، لإحياء الاتفاق النووي الذي سبق للرئيس بايدن أن بذل جهداً لإنجازه، عندما كان نائباً للرئيس الأسبق أوباما.

وقد ظهرت الاثنين الماضي أولى البوادر العملية للاستجابة الأميركية، وذلك عبر تصريحات وزير الخارجية بلينكين لـ «أن بي سي» بأنّ بلاده مستعدة للعودة للاتفاق إذا كانت إيران جاهزة لذلك، وحذر بأنّ إيران قد أصبحت على مسافة قريبة جداً من القدرة على صناعة مكونات مهمة تمنحها القدرة على إنتاج سلاح نووي، والحؤول دون ذلك قضية من قضايا الأمن القومي الأميركي، لكن شيطان التفاصيل الأميركية، سيحاول ولا بدّ فرض شروط إضافية، ربما أهمّها، أن تقوم إيران بتسليم اليورانيوم الذي خصّبته إبان توقف العمل بالاتفاق لوكالة الطاقة الذرية، وفي جعبة شيطان التفاصيل، ما تطالب به فرنسا من ضمّ دول خليجية للاتفاق، ومنها أيضاً سعي (إسرائيل) لأن تكون جزءاً من الاتفاق، إضافة إلى ما يتردّد على ألسنة سياسيّيها وأمنيّيها من شروط، لن تكون إيران بوارد حتى نقاشها، ومنها انسحاب إيران من سورية والعراق واليمن، ونزع سلاح حزب الله، وتفكيك المنظومات الصاروخية الإيرانية، وتلك مسائل لم يستطع العالم أجمع أن يحققها طيلة أربعة عقود من الحروب والحصار والعقوبات، لكن عملية عضّ الأصابع بين طهران وواشنطن لا بدّ لها أن تصل إلى نهايتها، فلكلّ منهما الرغبة والمصلحة ذاتهما في الوصول إلى اتفاق.

أما باقي الملفات في شرقنا، فلا تبدي الإدارة الجديدة اهتماماً عالياً بها، ولا تدرجها في قائمة أولوياتها، فهي قد أصبحت أزمات نمطية، حيث تدير كلّ أزمة نفسها بنفسها، وهي لا تحمل صفة الاستعجال، ولا ترتفع حرارتها بما يشكل خطراً، ومنها ما يجري في العراق وسورية، حيث لا يفعل الأميركي أكثر من حماية الأكراد (قسد) عبر 2500 عسكري وهي سياسة أميركية قديمة ببيع الأوهام عبر استعمال الأكراد سريعي الاستجابة، والذين طالما خرجوا خاسرين، فلطالما استمرأوا اللعبة حتى ولو على حساب دمائهم. أما لبنان فغارق في فساده وقضايا حاكم مصرفه المركزي، وأزمة تشكيل الحكومة، وكذلك في الملف الفلسطيني، فالأزمة تدير نفسها بانتظار المرحلة الأولى من ظهور معالم الرؤية، أيّ انتخابات الكنيست في آذار المقبل، فيما يقطع الفلسطيني الوقت في مشاريع انتخابية وحوارات وطنية، يُفترض أنها ستعيد بناء النظام السياسي وتعيد الوحدة لما تبقى من فلسطين، المشاريع التي جرّبها الفلسطيني مراراً، والتي تنطلق بتفاؤل وحميمية بين المتخاصمين الفلسطينيين، ولكنها غالباً ما تنتهي بنتائج لا تتفق مع التفاؤل، في حين لن تقدّم الإدارة الأميركية الجديدة في المنظور أكثر من بعض الأموال وإعادة تفعيل وكالة التنمية الأميركية (USAid)، فتح مكتب أو قنصلية، مبعوث زائر لرام الله، ووفد يحلّ ضيفاً في واشنطن، ولكنها قد تقدّم بعض الدعم اللفظي الذي قد يبالغ في تقديره الفلسطيني الرسمي، كإدانة إنشاء بؤرة استيطانية هنا، أو استشهاد مدني فلسطيني على حاجز هناك، بادعاء محاولة القيام بعملية طعن، انه البقاء في المربع ذاته.

Russian Attack Helicopters Purge ISIS Cells In Central Syria

South Front

January 29, 2021

The Syrian Army and its allies continue active efforts to hunt down and neutralize ISIS cells in the Homs-Deir Ezzor desert.

In a recent series of raids, government forces eliminated at least 8 ISIS members that were involved in recent attacks on civilian and military columns moving between the towns of Kobajjep and al-Shoulah. Three pick-up trucks armed with machine guns were also destroyed.

The Russian Aerospace Forces also deployed attack helicopters to support security operations of the Syrian Army. The very same helicopters are involved in providing security to important columns moving along the Homs-Deir Ezzor highway. On top of this, Russian warplanes carried out a few dozens of strikes on ISIS targets across the region.

Pro-government sources argue that now the highway is fully secured. However, it is unlikely that the ISIS threat will be fully neutralized anytime soon. On December 30, at least 25 people were killed when ISIS cells ambushed a bus near Kobajjep on the M20. On January 24, a similar attack left three people dead near al-Shoulah.

The increase of ISIS attacks took place amid tensions between the Syrian Army and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in al-Hasakah and al-Qamishli. The SDF security unit, Asayish, is seeking to limit the freedom of movement of Syrian personnel and pro-government militias in these areas. These attempts have faced a strong resistance from the local Arab population that does not support the pro-US and separatist posture of the Kurdish leaders. Damascus and the Kurdish leadership are allegedly being involved in negotiations to settle the existing issues. Nonetheless, the SDF is not hurrying up to demonstrate any kind of constructive approach. It seems that the leaders of Syrian Kurds will find out that they are also Syrians and should cooperate with Damascus to receive protection not earlier than the Turkish Army once again launches an advance on SDF positions.

Meanwhile, the situation is escalating in Iraq. The new US administration seems to be not going to reduce the number of troops deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan in a move that goes contrary to the agreements and policies of the previous US President.

During his confirmation hearing last week, the new Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said that Washington was set to reexamine the plan announced by the administration of Donald Trump for reducing the number of troops in Iraq and Afghanistan each to 2,500.

This move is not only putting end to Trump’s attempts to reduce the US involvement in conflicts around the world, but also antagonize a large part of the Iraqi society and political leadership. In January 2020, the Iraqi parliament passed the law demanding the US to withdraw troops from the country. This decision followed the US assassination of top Iranian and Iraqi military commanders, Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, in a drone strike in Baghdad.

This act of the US aggression also led to the increase of activity anti-US armed groups (often linked with Iran) that have already carried out dozens of attacks on supply convoys and targets affiliated with the US-led coalition. This trend will continue to strengthen as long as the main source of tensions, the large-scale US military presence in Iraq, will not be removed.

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Do You Read What They Write? Unstated Policies of Trump in Syria هل تقرأون ما يكتبون؟

ARABI SOURI 

James Jeffrey US - Trump policy against Syria, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and Russia

One of the facts that James Jeffrey, former envoy of Trump to Syria, reveals in his recent article is: “Turkey, the (Kurdish) SDF, and the armed terrorist opposition groups have worked hand in hand with the United States and Israel in Syria.”

The following is the English translation from Arabic of the latest article by Bouthaina ShaabanPresident Assad Media Advisor and Arab thinker,she published in the Lebanese Al-Mayadeen news site Al-Mayadeen Net:

After leaving his position as the US envoy to Syria, James Jeffrey showered us with interviews, statements, and articles, the most important of which was perhaps the article he published in Foreign Affairs on January 15th, 2021, with the title: “Biden Doesn’t Need a New Middle East Policy: The Trump Administration Got the Region Right.”

There is no doubt that this title is an important indication for readers of the direction of James Jeffrey’s discussion and views in the (Arab World) region and the humanitarian catastrophes that befell it as a result of his government’s criminal policies of terrorism, siege, and sanctions.

What is striking in the article are two things: the misleading language, which needs translation, even in the English language, in order to reach the true intended meaning, which the words try to obscure, and the outdated content that was spelled out by events and revealed its falsehood.

Jeffrey says: ‘The goal of the United States’ policy in the Trump administration was to contain Iran and Russia, get rid of the small wars in Iraq and Syria, and hand over the task to our partners in the two countries, but some of his advisers wanted the United States to remain engaged in Syria and Iraq to contain Iran.’

Jeffrey also affirms: “Trump supported Israel and Turkey in Syria and that he would rely primarily on the Gulf states, Jordan, Iraq, and Israel to stand up to Tehran,” and admits that “Trump’s main goal in Syria was to fight the Syrian state and not fight ISIS and in order to achieve these goals the Trump administration ignored the actions of important partners inside their countries, including Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, despite the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The Trump administration’s public support for Israel was also a real change in US policy regarding the Golan, Jerusalem, and Western Sahara in order to ripen and bring out the Abraham Accords which are important to Israel.”

Jeffrey says: “Trump’s primary goal in containing Iran is to limit its presence in the region because Trump saw Iran as a regional threat to Israel and considered all other files, including the nuclear file, less important than this Iranian expansion in the region that threatens Israel. Regarding Syria, Trump’s policy has depended on two factors: the attempt to get rid of Assad through armed opposition and terrorism, destroy the infrastructure, impose sieges and sanctions to stifle the economy; and the second factor is reaching a political settlement through the United Nations and this depends on removing Iran from the Syrian and Iraqi equation.

Of course, he describes the plunder of Syrian oil, wheat, and resources: “The Trump administration deprived the Syrian government and its supporters of these resources (to incite the population against their government),” while the Trump administration committed a described criminal theft of the resources of the Syrian people that is no different from its destruction of the country’s resources and capabilities.

But one of the facts that Jeffrey reveals in this article is: “Turkey, the (Kurdish) SDF, and the armed terrorist opposition groups have worked hand in hand with the United States and Israel in Syria.” In other words, the Turkish Kurdish rivalries they claim in northeastern Syria are rivalries over what they plunder, and not on the method and goal of their disgraceful actions. He also reveals that the Israeli attacks on Syria received aid from American intelligence sources and that everything that affects the Syrian people in terms of aggression, murder, and terrorism The impoverishment and theft of resources and the deprivation of fuel, food, and medicine was coordinated between the Trump administration, Israel, Turkey and those who call themselves opposition inside or outside the country, whether armed or unarmed.

In other words, the goal of all that the enemies did was to undermine the Syrian state, weaken it and confiscate its independent decision, and that this war of attrition would continue because it was the only one that was effective against the Soviets in Afghanistan, and that the killing of Qassem Soleimani in Iraq was retaliation against the Iraqi forces that support Tehran and stand hostile to the United States.

What the reader concludes from the outcome of James Jeffrey’s writing and statements is the same that was published by the Israeli National Security Research Center two years ago, which is that the war on Syria has produced a resistance axis from Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Hezb Allah and that the first priority must be focused on striking and dismantling this axis, which is considered an existential threat to “Israel” in the first degree. With a careful look at all the above, it is not difficult to question those who are directing hostility to Iran in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, and about the goals that they hope to achieve. It is clear that these are goals in the interest of who targets all of us in this region.

It is not difficult to re-read calls under ethnic or racial banners, as the only name Jeffrey gives to these, including the armed opposition and affiliated with Turkey or the Gulf, calls them: “our partners in the region” who complete the role we play there.

For a long time, I have been calling for us to read what they write and to fight back their ideas and plans wherever possible, but unfortunately, we overlook what they reveal and find ourselves in the midst of facing their plans and do not tire of saying that we were surprised or taken by surprise, while if we were following what they write and what they publish we would be able to extrapolate part of the events that were orchestrated for us, and perhaps we would have taken some measures that mitigate the effects of their crimes against us.

Even though people were stunned by the events of what they called the “Arab Spring” from Tunisia to Egypt, Libya, and Syria, I wrote more than once that the research they conducted on the region in 1997 concluded with a very important paper entitled: “Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm.” It describes in detail the tools and mechanisms that were adopted in the events of the Arab Spring and in all Arab countries, but we may not have read, and if we read, we did not take protective steps against the plans they draw and the mechanisms they define to achieve their goals in the region.

It is true that Western media is subject to major companies owned by the Zionists, but in the era of metaphorical media and social media, there are capabilities available to make our voice heard, to put our point of view, to deny their gossip, and impose our vision.

What is important in this regard is monitoring the inside, not just the outside, because their plans and scenarios depend on their agents and their tools within countries and not only on the few thousand soldiers they send here and there.

In this regard, it is necessary to be firm in dealing with proposals that are in the interest of the enemies and not to tolerate doubts about friends and allies because the front is one and the battle is one. It is clear from all the statements made by James Jeffrey, Rayburn, and all those to whom the files of this region were assigned, that their planning and thinking includes all our allies, and they have no difference between those who resist them in Baghdad, Tehran, Damascus or Beirut, they ignore all the minor issues in order to undermine this solidarity and alliance, which they see as a major threat to their interests in the region, especially to the usurping entity (Isreal) that belongs to them.

And before Trump’s departure, he placed Israel as a member of the joint forces responsible for the Middle East region, and this predicts stronger future alliances between it and Turkey and the (Kurdish) SDF in Syria, and between all the forces opposing the axis of resistance in Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon.

What we have read and interpreted reveals a sample only for what they are doing that the targeting of national figures and resistance paths by some groupings is not spontaneous or arbitrary, but is part of a plan to serve the enemies and harm our countries, our friends and our allies.

Today the battle is no longer only on the borders but has become inside our country, in every institution and specialization, and in every aspect of thought, action, and evaluation, and throughout history, enemies of the interior, traitors, and insurgents have been more dangerous to national issues and goals than the enemies of the outside.

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هل تقرأون ما يكتبون؟

بثينة شعبان

بثينة شعبان 

إحدى الحقائق التي يكشف عنها جيمس جيفري في مقاله الأخير هي: “أن تركيا وقسد والمعارضات الإرهابية المسلحة عملوا يداً بيد مع الولايات المتحدة وإسرائيل في سوريا”.

بعد مغادرته منصبه كمبعوث أميركي إلى سوريا أتحفنا جيمس جيفري بمقابلات وتصريحات ومقالات كان أهمها ربما المقال الذي نشره في مجلة “الشؤون الخارجية” (فورين أفيرز) بتاريخ 15 كانون الثاني/يناير9 2021 وبعنوان: “لا يحتاج بايدن إلى سياسة شرق أوسطية: إدارة ترامب وضعت المنطقة على السكة”.

ولا شك أن هذا العنوان مؤشر هام للقراء عن توجهات نقاش جيمس جيفري وآرائه في المنطقة، وما حلّ بها من كوارث إنسانية بسبب سياسات حكومته الإجرامية من الإرهاب والحصار والعقوبات.

واللافت في المقال أمران: اللغة المضلّلة والتي تحتاج إلى ترجمة، حتى باللغة الإنكليزية، لتصل إلى المعنى الحقيقي المقصود والذي تحاول الألفاظ التعمية عليه، والمضمون الذي تجاوزه الزمن والذي لفظته الأحداث وكشفت زيفه.

يقول جيفري: “إن هدف سياسة الولايات المتحدة في إدارة ترامب كان احتواء إيران وروسيا والتخّلص من الحروب الصغيرة في العراق وسوريا وتسليم المهمة لعملائنا في البلدين، ولكن بعض مستشاريه رغبوا أن تبقى الولايات المتحدة منخرطة في سوريا والعراق لاحتواء إيران”.

كما يؤكد جيفري: “أن ترامب دعم إسرائيل وتركيا في سوريا وأن اعتماده الأساسي كان على دول الخليج والأردن والعراق وإسرائيل للوقوف في وجه طهران”، ويعترف بأن “هدف ترامب الأساسي في سوريا كان محاربة الدولة السورية وليس محاربة داعش، ومن أجل إحراز هذه الأهداف فقد تجاهلت إدارة ترامب تصرفات الشركاء المهمين داخل بلادهم، بمن فيهم مصر وتركيا والسعودية رغم مقتل الصحفي جمال خاشقجي. كما كان الدعم العلني لإدارة ترامب لإسرائيل تغييراً حقيقياً في سياسة الولايات المتحدة بالنسبة للجولان والقدس والصحراء الغربية من أجل إنضاج وإخراج اتفاقات إبراهيم المهمة لإسرائيل”.

يقول جيفري: “إن هدف ترامب الأساسي من احتواء إيران هو الحدّ من وجودها في المنطقة لأن ترامب رأى إيران كخطر إقليمي على إسرائيل واعتبر كلّ الملفات الأخرى بما فيها الملف النووي أقلّ أهمية من هذا التمدّد الإيراني في المنطقة المهدّد لإسرائيل. أما بالنسبة لسوريا فقد اعتمدت سياسة ترامب على عاملين: محاولة التخلص من الأسد بواسطة المعارضة المسلحة والإرهاب وتدمير البنى التحتية وفرض الحصار والعقوبات لخنق الاقتصاد، والعامل الثاني التوصل إلى تسوية سياسية من خلال الأمم المتحدة وهذا يعتمد على إخراج إيران من المعادلة السورية والعراقية”.

وطبعاً يصف نهب النفط والقمح والموارد السورية: “بأن إدارة ترامب حرمت الحكومة السورية ومؤيديها من هذه الموارد (لتأليب السكان ضدّ حكومتهم)”، بينما ارتكبت إدارة ترامب سرقة إجرامية موصوفة لموارد الشعب السوري لا تختلف أبداً عن تدميرها لموارد البلاد ومقدراتها.

ولكنّ إحدى الحقائق التي يكشف عنها جيفري في هذا المقال هي: “أن تركيا وقسد والمعارضات الإرهابية المسلحة عملوا يداً بيد مع الولايات المتحدة وإسرائيل في سوريا”؛ أي أن ما يدّعونه من خصومات كردية تركية في شمال شرق سوريا هي خصومات على ما ينهبون، وليس على طريقة وهدف أعمالهم المشينة، كما يكشف أيضاً أن الاعتداءات الإسرائيلية على سوريا تلقت العون من مصادر الاستخبارات الأميركية، وأن كل ما ينال الشعب السوري من عدوان وقتل وإرهاب وإفقار وسرقة موارد وحرمان من الوقود والغذاء والدواء كان منسّقاً بين إدارة ترامب وإسرائيل وتركيا ومن يسمون أنفسهم معارضات داخل أو خارج البلد مسلحة كانت أو غير مسلحة.

أي أن الهدف من كل ما قام به الأعداء هو النيل من الدولة السورية وإضعافها ومصادرة قرارها المستقل، وأن حرب الاستنزاف هذه ستستمر لأنها الوحيدة التي كانت ناجعة ضد السوفييت في أفغانستان، وأن قتل قاسم سليماني في العراق كان انتقاماً من القوى العراقية التي تؤيد طهران وتقف موقف العداء من الولايات المتحدة.

ما يستنتجه القارئ من حصيلة كتابة وتصريحات جيمس جيفري هو ذاته الذي نشره مركز أبحاث الأمن القومي الإسرائيلي منذ سنتين وهو أن الحرب على سوريا قد أنتجت محوراً مقاوماً من إيران والعراق وسوريا وحزب الله، وأن الأولوية الأولى يجب أن تنصّب على ضرب وتفكيك هذا المحور الذي يعتبر تهديداً وجودياً لـ “إسرائيل” في الدرجة الأولى. وفي نظرة متأنية لكلّ ما تقدّم ليس من الصعب أن نتساءل عن الذين يناصبون العداء لإيران في العراق وسوريا ولبنان وعن أهدافهم التي يرجون تحقيقها؛ إذ من الواضح أنها أهداف تصبّ في مصلحة من يستهدفنا جميعاً في هذه المنطقة.

وليس من الصعب أن نعيد قراءة مطالبات تحت عناوين إثنية أو عرقية، إذ أن الاسم الوحيد الذي يطلقه جيفري على هؤلاء بمن فيهم المعارضات المسلحة والتابعة لتركيا أو الخليج يسميهم: “عملاءنا في المنطقة” والذين يكملون الدور الذي نقوم به هناك. 

منذ زمن وأنا أدعو أن نقرأ ما يكتبون وأن نقارع أفكارهم وخططهم حيثما أمكن ذلك، ولكن وللأسف فإننا نغفل ما يكشفون عن أنفسهم ونجد أنفسنا في خضمّ مواجهة مخططاتهم ولا نتعب من أن نقول إننا فوجئنا أو أُخذنا على حين غرّة، بينما لو كنا نتابع ما يكتبون وما ينشرون لتمكنّا من استقراء جزءٍ من الأحداث التي تمّ تدبيرها لنا، ولاتّخذنا ربما بعض الإجراءات التي تخفف من آثار جرائمهم المرتبكة بحقنا.

فمع أن الناس بُهتت بأحداث ما أسموه بـ “الربيع العربي” من تونس إلى مصر وليبيا وسوريا، فقد كتبتُ أكثر من مرة أن الأبحاث التي أجروها عن المنطقة في العام 1997 والتي خلصت إلى ورقة هامة جداً بعنوان: “الاختراق النظيف؛ الاستراتيجية الجديدة للسيطرة على المكان” تصف بالتفصيل الأدوات والآليات التي تمّ اعتمادها في أحداث الربيع العربي وفي كافة الدول العربية، ولكننا ربما لم نقرأ، وإذا قرأنا لم نتخذ الخطوات الواقية من المخططات التي يرسمونها والآليات التي يحددونها لإنجاز أهدافهم في المنطقة.

صحيح أن الإعلام الغربي خاضع لشركات كبرى يملكها الصهاينة ولكن وفي عصر الإعلام المجازي ووسائل التواصل الاجتماعي هناك إمكانات متاحة لإسماع صوتنا ولوضع وجهة نظرنا ولتكذيب أقاويلهم وفرض رؤيتنا نحن.

والمهم في هذا الصدد هو رصد الداخل وليس رصد الخارج فقط، لأن خططهم وسيناريواتهم تعتمد على عملائهم وأدواتهم داخل البلدان وليس فقط على بضعة آلاف من الجنود يرسلونها هنا وهناك.

وفي هذا الصدد لابدّ من الحزم في التعامل مع الطروحات التي تصبّ في مصلحة الأعداء وعدم التسامح بالتشكيك بالأصدقاء والحلفاء أو تناولهم لأن الجبهة واحدة والمعركة واحدة، ومن الواضح من كلّ ما أدلى به جيمس جيفري ورايبورن وكل الذين تُوكل إليهم ملفات هذه المنطقة، أن تخطيطهم وتفكيرهم يشمل كل الحلفاء، لا فرق لديهم بين من يقاومهم في بغداد أو طهران أو دمشق أو بيروت، وهم يتجاهلون كل المسائل الصغرى في سبيل النيل من هذا التعاضد والتحالف الذي يرون فيه خطراً كبيراً على مصالحهم في المنطقة وخاصة على الكيان الغاصب التابع لهم.

وقبل مغادرة ترامب وضع “إسرائيل” عضواً في القوات المشتركة المسؤولة عن منطقة الشرق الأوسط، وهذا ينبئ بتحالفات مستقبلية أقوى بينها وبين تركيا وقسد في سوريا، وبين كل القوى المناهضة لمحور المقاومة في إيران والعراق وسوريا ولبنان.

يكشف ما قرأناه وفنّدناه كنموذج فقط عمّا يقومون به أن التصويب داخل بلداننا على شخصيات وطنية وعلى مسارات مقاومة من قبل بعض التجمعات ليس عفوياً ولا اعتباطياً، ولكنه يندرج ضمن خطة خدمة الأعداء وإلحاق الأذى ببلداننا وأصدقائنا وحلفائنا.

لم تعد المعركة اليوم فقط على الحدود، بل أصبحت داخل بلدنا وفي كل مؤسسة واختصاص وفي كل مفصل من مفاصل الفكر والعمل والتقييم، وعبر التاريخ كان أعداء الداخل والخونة والمخترقون أشدّ خطورة على القضايا والأهداف الوطنية من أعداء الخارج. إن الآراء المذكورة في هذه المقالة لا تعبّر بالضرورة عن رأي الميادين وإنما تعبّر عن رأي صاحبها حصراً

روبرت فورد بين إدارة بايدن وسورية: فشل الدويلة الكرديّة ودعوة لتفويض روسيا

ناصر قنديل

في مقالة في المجلة الأهم في رسم السياسات الخارجية، الفورين أفريز، نشرها السفير الأميركي السابق في سورية خلال السنوات التي سبقت ورافقت الحرب الأميركية على سورية، روبرت فورد، المعروف بموقعه كخبير في الشؤون السورية وشؤون قوى المعارضة من الأخوان المسلمين الى الجماعات الليبرالية، من موقعه كأحد العقول المعنيّة برسم السياسات في الحزب الديمقراطي، اختصر حصيلة الدور الأميركي في سورية خلال ولاية الرئيس السابق دونالد ترامب وأواخر ولاية الرئيس باراك أوباما، وتقدّم بمقترحات يمكن أن تشكل إحدى الأوراق الرئيسية على طاولة الرئيس الأميركي الجديد جو بايدن ووزير خارجيته توني بلينكين اللذين عملا مع فورد طيلة فترة ولاية الرئيس باراك أوباما الذي عيّنه عام 2010 سفيراً في سورية.

يصف فورد المرحلة التي أعقبت رحيله عام 2014 بقوله، السنوات الست يمكن اختصارها بالتركيز على حماية مشروع الدويلة الكردية شمال شرق سورية وموقعها في النفط والسياسة، بقوله، بعد ست سنوات وقرابة 2.6 مليار دولار، باتت هذه الدويلة طفل الولايات المتحدة في المنطقة، ونشأت تحت الحماية العسكرية الأميركية، محميّة من جيرانها المعادين. لكنها غير قادرة على حماية ذاتها، وبالتالي ستظل منطقة الحكم الذاتي معتمدة على موارد الولايات المتحدة في المستقبل المنظور. ومع ذلك، فإن الالتزام المفتوح من هذا النوع ليس ما تحتاج إليه الولايات المتحدة. فسورية لم تكن أبدًاً قضية أمن قومي أميركي رئيسة، وطالما كانت المصالح الأميركية فيها مقتصرة على منع تحول الصراع داخلها إلى تهديد يطال مخاوف واشنطن الأكثر أهمية في أماكن أخرى. لكن السياسة الأميركية الحالية لا تقدم الكثير لتحقيق هذا الهدف المركزي، كما أنها لم تؤمن عملية إصلاح سياسي في دمشق، ولم تُعِد الاستقرار إلى البلاد، ولم تتعامل مع فلول تنظيم الدولة الإسلامية “داعش”. ومن الأفضل أن يغير الرئيس جو بايدن مسار سحب مئات الجنود الأميركيين المنتشرين حاليًا في سورية، كما عليه الاعتماد على روسيا وتركيا لاحتواء داعش.

يشرح فورد نظريته بالقول، لقد تسبّب حلفاء الولايات المتحدة من الأكراد السوريين بتفاقم التوترات الإقليميّة القائمة منذ فترة طويلة بين العرب والأكراد. وهناك إحباط واسع النطاق بين المجتمعات العربية على وجه الخصوص، من الهيمنة السياسية الكردية التي مكنتها الولايات المتحدة، ومن السيطرة الكردية على حقول النفط المحليّة. كما يحتجّ السكان العرب على الفساد الإداري المزعوم لقوات سورية الديمقراطية، وعمليات مكافحة الإرهاب القاسية، وممارسات التجنيد الإجباريّ. ومن جانبها، شنت القوات الكردية هجمات بسيارات مفخخة على بلدات عربية خاضعة لسيطرة الجيش التركي. وفي مثل هذه البيئة المشحونة بالتوترات العرقيّة والخلافات القبلية، يمكن لداعش العمل بقبول ضمني من المجتمعات المحلية ويمكن لها تجنيد عناصر من صفوف السكان الساخطين. وستواجه الولايات المتحدة هذه المشكلة دائماً، طالما أن سياساتها تفضل دولة يهيمن عليها الأكراد في شرق سورية.

يجزم فورد بفشل الرهان على الدويلة الكردية بإنهاء تنظيم داعش، ويقول، يفتقر النهج الأميركي الحالي أيضاً إلى نهاية قابلة للتحقيق، فبدون غطاء دبلوماسي وعسكري أميركي، من المرجّح أن تواجه وحدات حماية الشعب وقوات سورية الديمقراطية حرباً على جبهتين أو ثلاث جبهات: ضد كل من تركيا والحكومة السورية، الأمر الذي من شأنه أن يبعد مقاتليهما عن المعركة ضد داعش. ولمنع هذه النتيجة، ومع استمرار دعم القوات الكردية، سيتعين على الولايات المتحدة البقاء في شرق سورية إلى أجل غير مسمّى، ويضيف فورد أنه في حال اختارت روسيا أو تركيا أو إيران أو الحكومة السورية زيادة الضغط العسكري على القوات الأميركية أو الدولة الكردية الناشئة، فستضطر الولايات المتحدة حينها إلى تخصيص مزيد من الموارد لحل المشكلة. كما كان الحال عندما بدأت الوحدات العسكرية الروسية في مضايقة الدوريات الأميركية صيف عام 2020، ما دفع القيادة المركزية الأميركية إلى إرسال وحدات مدرعة خفيفة جديدة كرادع لروسيا. ومن المرجّح أن تزداد هذه الديناميكية سوءاً في السنوات المقبلة.

يستند فورد على هذه القاعدة النظرية ليستنتج، أنه بالنظر إلى هذه العيوب في سياسة ترامب تجاه سورية، تحتاج الإدارة الجديدة إلى نهج مختلف، نهج قادر على احتواء داعش بنجاح، من دون إلزام الجيش الأميركي بحرب أخرى إلى الأبد. وبدلاً من الحفاظ على الاستراتيجية الأميركية الحالية، يجب أن تركز دبلوماسية فريق بايدن، بشكل أكبر على روسيا وتركيا. فالاعتراف بمصالح هذين البلدين في سورية قد يؤدي إلى نتائج أفضل، وهو خبر غير سار، ويشرح، أن روسيا ليست شريكاً مثالياً، لكن دعمها (للرئيس بشار) الأسد يجعلها القوة المناسبة لتولي القتال ضد داعش. إذ إن موسكو ملتزمة بضمان بقاء الحكومة السورية، كما أن عودة ظهور داعش (التي يُحتمل أن تموّلها حقول النفط السورية التي تم الاستيلاء عليها من قوات سورية الديمقراطية)، ستهدد الأسد بشكل خطير. وللاستفادة من هذه المساحة الضيقة من الأرضية المشتركة، يجب على إدارة بايدن إبرام صفقة تفوّض بها موسكو مهام مكافحة داعش على جانبي نهر الفرات. وسيتطلب هذا حتماً زيادة الوجود العسكري الروسي في شرق سورية، وستحتاج الولايات المتحدة إلى التفاوض على انسحاب تدريجي لقواتها وجدول زمني للانتقال من السيطرة الأميركية إلى السيطرة الروسية.

يقترح فورد على بايدن تجنّب مفاجأة شركاء الولايات المتحدة الأكراد بهذه الاستراتيجية الجديدة. لذا يجب على إدارته إبلاغهم في وقت مبكر بشأن الخطوات الأميركية الوشيكة. فقد كانت قوات سورية الديمقراطية ووحدات حماية الشعب شريكين جيدين في القتال ضد داعش، وسيكون من الحكمة أن يواصل الروس العمل معهما بموجب ترتيب جديد. فلدى موسكو خبرة في هذا المجال، حيث أنشأ الروس وجُهِّزوا، بل ويشرفون حالياً على «الفيلق الخامس» من المقاتلين الموالين لدمشق، والذين يقومون بمهام في جميع أنحاء البلاد. وبالاشتراك مع الحكومة السورية، يمكن لموسكو إنشاء «الفيلق السادس» الجديد، المكوّن من أعضاء قوات سورية الديمقراطية تحت القيادة الروسية، ويرى فورد أنه، سيتعين على حزب الاتحاد الديمقراطي ووحدات حماية الشعب التفاوض مع دمشق حول الوضع السياسيّ للأراضي التي يسيطرون عليها، ويمكن لعلاقة حزب الاتحاد الديمقراطي الطويلة الأمد مع الحكومة السورية أن تسهل هذه العملية. ففي عام 2012، أبرم التنظيم اتفاقاً مع (الرئيس) الأسد للسيطرة على المدن الشمالية الشرقية مع انسحاب الجيش السوري منها، ولم تتعرّض مجتمعاته مطلقاً لحملات قصف حكومية مثل تلك التي استهدفت حمص وحلب وضواحي دمشق.

يرد فورد على الذين سيقولون، إن الانسحاب الأميركي من شأنه أن يمنح إيران وروسيا السيطرة على سورية، بالقول إن الروابط السياسية والعسكرية بين هذين البلدين ودمشق منذ عقود طويلة مع دمشق، وهي العلاقات التي من غير المرجح أن تستطيع الضغوط الأميركية إضعافها. فقد حافظت روسيا وسورية على علاقة وثيقة منذ الحرب الباردة، وعمل المستشارون الروس في البلاد قبل وقت طويل من بدء الصراع الحالي عام 2011، كما أن وجود إيران طويل الأمد أيضاً، فعندما كنت سفيراً للولايات المتحدة في سورية قبل عشر سنوات، كان يتقاسم الدبلوماسيون الأميركيون مبنًى سكنياً مع أعضاء الحرس الثوري الإيراني، وكانت هناك منشآت عسكرية تابعة للحرس الثوري في سورية منذ ما يقرب من 20 عاماً، وبالنتيجة، لن تغير الدوريات الأميركية الصغيرة والعرضية في شرق سورية، أياً من هذه العلاقات الثنائية، ولن تكون قادرة على منع شحنات الصواريخ الإيرانية إلى البلاد، وهو أمر تقوم به القوات الجوية الإسرائيلية بالفعل بشكل فعال. ويمكن لبايدن – بالطبع – الحفاظ على استراتيجية إدارة ترامب. لكن القيام بذلك سيعني إهدار مليارات الدولارات مع تفاقم التوترات الطائفية والفشل في احتواء داعش.

IRAN EXPANDS INTELLIGENCE NETWORK NEAR JORDAN AND ISRAEL

South Front

 19.01.2021

The situation in Syria’s Idlib appears to be, once again, on the brink of escalation, with the US preoccupied with what’s happening at home, and Turkey attempting to push towards Ain Issa, while being targeted by its own proxies.

The terrorist threat is far from removed, and attacks are common, moments of calm in the country’s east and northwest appear to be few and far between. The situation that’s transpiring is, to a large degree, due to Turkey’s actions and its policies.

Ankara, too, is suffering from it, since the many of the groups that it backs, officially or otherwise, seem to be eager to bite the hand that feeds. On January 16th, Turkish troops in observation posts in Idlib were targeted by sniper fire from a group that calls itself “Saryat Ansar Abu Baker As-Siddiq”. According to the group itself, three Turkish soldiers were shot. One appears to be in critical condition.

This is the group’s third attack against Turkey, with the first taking place in November of 2020, and then in December of 2020. The December attack resulted in one Turkish soldier’s death. Other reports of Turkish proxies attacking Ankara’s armed forces occasionally take place.

The Turkish military maintains more than 60 posts, camps and bases throughout Greater Idlib. Most of them are located in terrorist-controlled areas, and attacks on them are rather infrequent due to Ankara’s close ties with terrorists operating in the area. Nonetheless, as the recent attacks show, this policy has some weak sides for the Turkish personnel deployed.

Ankara is attempting to encroach near the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)-controlled area, attempting to establish an observation post near Ain Issa. A push on SDF positions is expected, but there will be a defense.

Meanwhile, Iran has been expanding its presence in Syria despite the endless Israeli-US attempts to oppose this. Tehran’s forces deployed a signal intelligence system along Syria’s border with Jordan. This may be used to either spy on the US forces deployed in Jordan, or even on Israel.

Iran has ample opportunity, Tel Aviv is likely to be on the back foot, since the US’ Biden administration is likely to support Israel less than that of Trump. This provides Tehran with a chance to dig in and reinforce its position and prepare an asymmetric response to its geopolitical opponents.

There is likely to be an advent of a new round of confrontation in the conflict zone, with the Syrian Arab Army still struggling to get rid of ISIS cells in the Homs-Deir Ezzor desert, Turkey focused on the SDF and being targeted by militants in Idlib, and Iran attempting to focus on its opponents.

Both Ankara and Tehran are likely taking a chance to improve their positions in Syria due to the lull in American activity in the face of the unprecedented chaos in the United States. At the same time, the new US administration would not likely support the Trump-announced troop withdrawal effort. So, Washington still has a word to say.

NATO Supremacists New Round of Frenzied War Crimes in Syria

MIRI WOOD 

Hasakah people protesting cutting off alouk water

NATO supremacists illegally in Syria have gone into a frenzy of increased war crimes against the Levantine republic, on 17 January: The lame duck Trump forces continue to empty silos in the al Jazeera region of grain; Madman Erdogan forces have again turned off water to one million Syrians living in al Hasakah; Trump cannon fodder SDF terrorists have kidnapped more young Syrian men from al Susa and Hajin, Deir Ezzor countryside.

Featured image above, shows thousands of Syrians demanding their water rights, again turned off by Madman Erdogan’s illegal troops occupying the Allouk water station. Video below is a glimpse of the demonstration.

While the transatlantic stenographers do their belly-bumping phony piety in lamentations over the 6 January invasion of the US Capitol by Trump supporters and various undercovers, and fake rend their clothing over 25,000 National Guard soldiers (to protect 1,435 senators and congress members) they remain arrogantly mute over the ongoing kidnappings, murders, bombings, water deprivation and destruction of essential infrastructure in the Arabic, Muslim-majority country of Syria.

The twenty convoy trucks that smuggled more stolen Syrian grain into Iraq were protected by illegal, armored, US vehicles. NATO supremacy means stealing other people’s foods. This massive theft was a follow up to the massive Syrian barley theft of 10 January, which also had the NATO stenographer supremacists on mute.

Trump forces smuggle stolen Syrian grains to Iraq
Trump forces loot and smuggle Syrian grains to Iraq

Depriving a civilian population of their water is also a war crime. In October 2019, NATO Madman Erdogan bombed the electrical grid at the Alouk station. The Syrian electricity army repairs it, after which Erdogan bombed it again, after which it was again repaired, after which Erdogan’s forces invaded and occupied the water plant. NATO supremacy also means trying to crush other people’s countries by stealing their water.

The demonic SDF separatists were originally created under the NATO supremacist Obama regime, which collected international wetworkers to teach the subsequent cannon fodder how to terrorize the Syrian population. During the Obama years, atrocities against Syria were perpetrated ‘by accident,’ as when he meant to war criminally bomb ISIS but accidentally slaughtered 83 Syrian soldiers defending their homeland.

 

The Trump regime expanded on Obama’s war crimes, intentionally bombed Syrian soldiers for al Qaeda, and set up criminal military bases in Syria (whereas Obama only sent in ‘spec operatives.’ See “Cue the Illegal Orangettes,” here.).

Today, a “weapons shop” run under Madman Erdogan’s al Qaeda forces in Idlib, blew up. It was located in a crowded market, near to a school. Western propagandists have remained silent on this atrocity, also. Imagine such a scene in Paris, London, Berlin, Philly, or Los Angeles being normalized:

Idlib explosion in weapons shop kills one person

Since the “deadly siege” on the US Capitol, 6 January, western supremacists have been aghast, horrified by a small fraction of what those western supremacists do to non-western countries, with impunity, on daily basis. Our unindicted war criminals that drop NATO weapons into the hands of savage beasts in Syria, call the psychopaths “freedom fighters” and cheer the horrors they perpetrate on the Syrian people, in the name of the imperial paraphilia, “democracy.”

Here are some examples of our glorious freedom and democracy, in DC, today, as inauguration day approaches; it does give the appearance of a military occupation, the type of which our terrified politicians in the Capitol on the first Wednesday of the first month of the new year, have imposed on mostly brown-skinned and/or Muslim majority countries for decades.

 

Some of the detritus, hysteria, and shame/lessness of DC may eventually be put into a box labeled “Trump,” and we shall probably return to our collective criminal work as imperial NATO supremacists, entitled to tying up those tedious loose ends of uppity countries refusing to be crushed by western humanitarian democracy.

When that time comes, may we watch Syria’s President Bashar al Assad, walking freely and safely among his fellow countrymen and women, and may we honestly denounce the supremacists among us.

— Miri Wood

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TURKEY RUNS OUT OF MONEY FOR ITS MERCENARIES

 South Front

01.01.2021

On Janury 1, dozens of mercenaries from Siryan Idlib staged a protest in Tripoli’s Police College in Libya. Militants demand payment of salaries from their Turkish bosses.

According to the Al-Saa’a 24 news channel, the Syrian mercenaries have not been paid for five months. Each mercenary’s late due reportedly amount to $10,000.

According to numerous sources, it is known that the amount of contracts for Syrian mercenaries ranges from $1,500 to $2,000, depending on their military specialties and responsibilities.

Despite the signing of the ceasefire agreement between the Government of National Accord (GNA) and the Libyan National Army (LNA) in October, Turkey intends to deploy a new branch of mercenaries in Libya to support the GNA, according to the recent claims by the Siryan Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).

According to the SOHR, the number of mercenaries sent to Libya is estimated at 18,000. A significant part of them are under age of 18.

Turkey is actively deploying mercenaries from Syria to implement its national interests in different world regions. The recent Nagorno-Karabakh war, where more than 2,500 of its fighters were reportedly deployed alongside with Azerbaijani forces, demanded significant financial efforts from Ankara. Moreover, there are reports that Turkey is going to send mercenaries to Kashmir to fight against Indian forces.

At the same time, Turkish proxies have recently failed a large scale attack on the town of Ain Issa held by the Syrian Democratic Forces in Siryan Raqqa governorate.

Turkish desire to restore the greatness of the Ottoman Empire faces a lack of funds to carry out these ambitious plans.

MORE ON THE TOPIC:

Breaking: Terrorists Murder 25 on Bus on Deir Ezzor Highway

 MIRI WOOD 

Terrorists murdered 25 Syrians and wounded 13 others on a bus in Deir Ezzor on Wednesday. The bus was traveling along the Deir Ezzor – Palmyra Highway in Kabajeb when the attack occurred around 4 p.m., Damascene time. At this writing, no details other details have been released.

Some of the victims were soldiers returning home to start their long-awaited vacation and were in military uniforms as most of the Syrians do not have the luxury of having more suits to change after 10 years of fighting the world’s largest army of terrorists and their NATO sponsors.

Donald Trump maintains a large number of his forces from the Oil Thieves Regiment of the US Army and for their protection, the Pentagon employs a large number of terrorists, mainly of ISIS and its affiliates, and separatists like the Kurdish SDF armed groups. This attack seems to be carried out by one of those Pentagon assets operating illegally in Syria to prolong the suffering of the Syrian people since Syria never invaded any other country and it’s punished for that.

At this writing, the NATO stenographer klan have gone absolutely silent over this mass murder; use of internet search engines result in not even a blurb, and barely a mention of Israel’s early morning war criminal bombing of the Levantine Republic in which one Syrian Arab Army soldier was martyred, and three others wounded.

Deir Ezzor is the part of Syria that contains oil fields, oil fields occupied by Trump forces, and of which the besieged US president has bragged about stealing. His cretinous cannon fodder SDF — created under Obama — which would collapse without US troops, pathetically believe they are the deal makers in the theft of Syria’s oil.

As the overpaid stenographers — indictable under Nuremberg Principle VI, as war criminal propagandists are included in crimes against humanity — have chosen to turn a blind eye from the massacre (possibly because they were not made aware that vacationing soldiers are among the slaughtered), we will use this grizzly opportunity to remind Syria News readers and other civilized human beings the atrocities committed against the SAR, since NATO Spring was inflicted in March 2011.

Please take a closer look at this map:

Google & NATO stenographers insist on erasing history. There is no such place as "Kobane" in Syria. That was the name of the German company that built the station in Ain al Arab, in 1911.
Google & NATO stenographers insist on erasing history. There is no such place as “Kobane” in Syria. That was the name of the German company that built the station in Ain al Arab, in 1911.

Palmyra/Tadmor is in the lower-left corner. It is where Syrian archaeologist, Professor Khaled al Asaad was brutally murdered on 18 August 2015. Toward the center is al Raqqah, the site of Trump’s first war crimes in Syria, when he bombed two civilian bridges there, soon after being sworn in. Between ar Raqqah and Lake Assad is the Tabqa hydroelectric dam. Al Tabqa has been under NATO proxy control since February 2013.

UK, US Holding Tabqa Dam Hostage in Syrian Negotiations?

English terrorist, John Letts, near Syria’s Tabqa Dam.

Note al Hol (“al Hawl”) in the upper right area of the map, near the border with Iraq. Al Hol is the concentration camp run by the Trump forces’ SDF cannon fodder. It houses various foreign savages, such as Brit illegal Shamima Begum; though it is in Syria, it took the Syrian government and the Syrian Arab Red Crescent more than three years of insane negotiations to extricate the kidnapped Italian-Albanian boy, Alvin, and repatriate him with his father.

The al Hol concentration camp is within the al Hasakah governate. In October 2019, Madman Erdogan bombed the electrical power grid there and bombed it again after the Syrian Electricity Army repaired it, and after it was again repaired, the NATO Madman invaded and his illicit troops have occupied the Allouk Water Plant, since — turning the water off and on, and depriving upwards of one million Syrians of their essential water source.

Today, Wednesday 30 December, twenty-five Syrians were massacred while traveling on a bus in Deir Ezzor.

— Miri Wood

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Scores of US-backed SDF militants injured in separate attacks by unidentified persons in Raqqa, Deir Ezzor and Hasaka

ST

Created on Saturday, 19 December 2020 09:14 

A number of US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) Militia were injured on Friday in separate attacks by unidentified persons on their positions and axes of movement in Deir Ezzor,  Raqqa and Hasaka.

 Local sources told SANA reporter in Raqqa that an explosive device, planted by unidentified persons near Bteiman junction, exploded when a military car affiliated to the SDF militia was driving along the Al-Mankhar road. Another explosive device also targeted an SDF military car on the road between the village of Hazima and Tal al-Samen to the north of Raqqa. The two attacks resulted in the injury of several SDF militants.

In Deir Ezzor, local sources said that several SDF militants were injured in an explosive device attack in the vicinity of Al-Hisan town, while another SDF militant was injured when an unidentified person opened fire at him in Al-Howl camp, to the north of Hasaka.

 In a relevant context, a civilian was injured when SDF militants opened fire at citizens directly during their raids on several villages in the vicinity of Qamishli city in Hasaka. The militants also kidnapped a number of civilians during theses raids which targeted the villages of Al-Raheyyeh, Al-Abou Al-Shamali, Al-Abou Al-Janoubi, Hajeyeh Al-Kabireh, Al-Matashir, Al-Khalil and Sharmoukh which are part of Tal Hamis area in the southeast on Hasaka, according to local sources.

The sources added that the SDF militia also besieged Abu Fara’ village in the northeast of Hasaka and kidnapped a number of locals on the backdrop of expelling SDF militants who earlier came in a military car and tried to forcibly take young men from the village with the aim of recruiting them within the SDF ranks.

Hamda Mustafa

US Illegal Military Base Bombed with Mortars in an Oil Field in Deir Ezzor

 ARABI SOURI

US illegal military base east of Syria, Raqqa, Deir Ezzor, Hasakah

A US illegal military base in the Al Omar oil field was targeted with mortar shelling by an unknown group in the eastern Deir Ezzor countryside, east of Syria.

The US and their Kurdish separatist SDF armed groups combed the area with their medium and heavy weapons looking for the attackers, they did not report casualties among them at the time of this report.

Trump forces have increased their illegal military presence in Syria, especially in the northeastern provinces of Raqqa, Deir Ezzor, and Hasakah, since Trump ordered, said he is withdrawing his troops from the country, which later he added that he’s keeping ‘some’ of his troops there to ‘protect the oil’ because ‘he likes oil’, which meant depriving millions of ordinary Syrian families of their heat, transportation fuel, and fuel to bake their bread.

https://goo.gl/maps/HKfyimLecV7VBHRT8

The ‘Oil Thieves Regiment’ of the US Army last February expanded its military base in the Omar Oil field making it the largest in the country in the largest oil field in the country.

Last October, the US Army’s ‘Oil Thieves Regiment’ operating in Syria started building a new illegal military base in the Baguz town in the southeastern Deir Ezzor countryside, this would be their 4th illegal military base in the province and the 9th in Syria.

US proxies of the Kurdish separatist SDF armed groups protect the Oil Thieves Regiment while the other US proxy of ISIS engages the Syrian Arab constantly in order to keep them busy from reaching the oil thieves in the northeast of their country.

CENTCOM: US Backed Troops in Syria With Armor to ‘Show Teeth’ to Russians

Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on 

https://cdn1.img.sputniknews.com/img/07e4/09/04/1080367483_0:339:3072:2001_1000x0_80_0_1_d9f645deb150d2c00f7150d33370d186.jpg.webp

Sputnik-Middle East
The US military augmented its contingent in Syria with a platoon of armored fighting vehicles to show strength and intimidate Russian troops, Central Command (CENTCOM) chief Frank McKenzie said on Thursday.

McKenzie explained in an interview with the Defense One media outlet that the decision was made a couple of months ago in response to a Russian patrol that was not coordinated with the Americans.

“We thought it is appropriate to show them a little more teeth up there. So we brought an M2 Bradley platoon, which is armored fighting vehicle,” he said.

The general added that he decided to keep the armor in Syria to ensure that US servicemen on the ground have the protection they need to carry out tasks assigned to them.

McKenzie said that around 900 US troops are stationed in Syria in two clusters – near the country’s southern border with Jordan and in the northeast area where they assist Kurdish militias from the Syrian Democratic Forces.

He denied rumors attributed to former envoy James Jeffrey that the military and diplomats played “shell games” to hide actual numbers from President Donald Trump to keep as many forces in the country as possible, contrary to the president’s desire.

McKenzie also said that it is the SDF fighters who defend oil fields in Syria and US troops just enable them to do it. Control over reserves is necessary to prevent them from falling into the hands of the Islamic State terrorist group (outlawed in Russia), and allowing them to regenerate a nascent economy in eastern Syria.

Since 2015, the US has established nine military bases in northeastern Syria. Five of them are located in Hasek, and four more are in the vicinity of the oil fields in Deir ez-Zor. At the end of last year, US President Donald Trump approved a plan according to which several hundred American troops will remain in Syria with the task of controlling the oil fields in the northeast of the country.

CHAOS AND ARMED CONFLICTS: U.S. STRATEGY TO DISMANTLE RUSSIA IS ALREADY WORKING

South Front

Chaos And Armed Conflicts: U.S. Strategy To Dismantle Russia Is Already Working

In 2020, there have been several notable developments, that all seem to have been happening along Russia’s borders and in key regions developments in which influencing the Russian position on the international scene.

These include:

  • Ukraine’s refusal to seek peace in its East with the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, and various questionable policies.
  • Western-backed protests against Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, with a ‘school teacher-turned-politician’ challenging him with an insignificant share of the vote in the presidential election. She received wide support from the West, especially from heavily US-aligned states such as Poland and the Baltics.
  • The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and other groups in Syria are being supported openly, and not so openly, by the United States and sabotage the further diplomatic settlement of the conflict in Syria.
  • The situation in Central Asia is rather exacerbated, with an evident increase in ISIS activity in Afghanistan, alongside various terrorist elements appearing near its borders with Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) countries. The Russian Security Service – FSB – is hard at work in countering various ISIS and other terror cells on the territory of the Russian Federation, and reports such as these are frequent, meaning that there appears to be a network that is successful in either moving terrorist elements into the country, or recruiting them there.
  • There also was the Armenian-Azerbaijan War in Nagorno-Karabakh, which Russia didn’t directly involve itself in, since the fight was for the self-proclaimed independent republic of Artsakh, and Armenia never officially asked for assistance. Regardless, with the Peace Deal it brokered on November 10th, there have been numerous voices in Armenia blaming Russia for the defeat. And that is even though it essentially saved it from an even bigger fiasco and loss of territory. At the same time, despite being the victor, Azerbaijan simply received what it was promised with the Minsk agreements, with the addition of Shusha. There are protests against Russia in Azerbaijan, a country in which any non-government sanctioned protest is snuffed, violently. There are calls that Russia stole the “glorious victory”, while in Armenia there are calls to renew hostilities, while the Russian peacekeepers are there and somehow force their hand in the fight.
  • Turkey deployed thousands of Syrian militants to South Caucasus, and there are claims that it is even reportedly attempting to relocate families from Syria’s Afrin and other areas to the parts of Karabakh that were given to Azerbaijan. This is likely to also provide a fresh extremist presence in the region.
  • Turkey, once again, appeared to be shifting its gaze towards Crimea, but also cooperate with Ukraine in terms of selling UAVs to it and other military equipment.

All of these developments, somehow, almost entirely coincide with a report which the RAND Corporation released back in 2019.

The report is called “Extending Russia” with the subtitle “Competing from Advantageous Ground.” A short description of the report reads the following:

“The steps we posit would not have either defense or deterrence as their prime purpose, although they might contribute to both. Rather, these steps are conceived of as measures that would lead Russia to compete in domains or regions where the United States has a competitive advantage, causing Russia to overextend itself militarily or economically or causing the regime to lose domestic and/or international prestige and influence. This report deliberately covers a wide range of military, economic, and political policy options. Its recommendations are directly relevant to everything from military modernization and force posture to economic sanctions and diplomacy; consequently, it speaks to all the military services, other parts of U.S. government that have a hand in foreign policy, and the broader foreign and defense policy audience.”

Notably, the report suggests that the following “Geopolitical measures” need to be employed in order to counter Russia’s spreading influence and capabilities to provide an adequate answer to an extraordinary situation.

This chapter describes six possible U.S. moves in the current geopolitical competition:

  • providing lethal arms to Ukraine,
  • resuming support to the Syrian rebels,
  • promoting regime change in Belarus,
  • exploiting Armenian and Azeri tensions,
  • intensifying attention to Central Asia,
  • isolating Transnistria (a Russian-occupied enclave within Moldova).

There are several other possible geopolitical moves discussed in other RAND research but not directly evaluated here—including intensifying NATO’s relationship with Sweden and Finland, pressuring Russia’s position in the Arctic, and checking Russia’s attempts to secure its influence in Asia.

Ukraine

Between 2014 and 2016, the US provided $600 million in security assistance to Ukraine. These funds have been used to train Ukrainian military forces and provided nonlethal military equipment, including counterartillery and countermortar radars, secure communications, logistics systems, tactical unmanned reconnaissance aircraft, and medical equipment.

According to RAND, the US could increase its military assistance to Ukraine, or increase its calls to allow Kiev into NATO.

“Expanding U.S. assistance to Ukraine, including lethal military assistance, would likely increase the costs to Russia, in both blood and treasure, of holding the Donbass region. More Russian aid to the

separatists and an additional Russian troop presence would likely be required, leading to larger expenditures, equipment losses, and Russian casualties. The latter could become quite controversial at home, as it did when the Soviets invaded Afghanistan.”

Eastern Ukraine is already a significant drain on Russian resources, exacerbated by the accompanying Western sanctions. Increasing U.S. military aid would certainly drive up the Russian costs, but doing so could also increase the loss of Ukrainian lives and territory or result in a disadvantageous peace settlement. This would generally be seen as a serious setback for U.S. policy.

What’s going on in reality? There appears to be no conclusive peace settlement in Ukraine, and anti-Russian policy continues moving forward full speed. The Kiev regime, at large controlled from Washington, is intentionally sabotaging attempts to de-escalate the situation and publicly preparing for a new military operation in eastern Ukraine. Recently, pro-Kiev sources started laying great hopes on the Turkish military aid. For sure, the US is also involved. In August 2020, incoming US President Joe Biden promised to provide Ukraine with even more lethal weapons. In late 2019, the Trump administration also approved several sales of “defensive lethal weapons” to Ukraine.

As such this part of RAND’s suggestion appears to be moving, more or less, according to plan.

Chaos And Armed Conflicts: U.S. Strategy To Dismantle Russia Is Already Working

Syria

“In 2015, Russia’s intervention in Syria cost an estimated $2.4 million to $4 million a day, according to the Moscow Times and IHS Janes’ estimates. 34 Given the size of Russia’s defense budget ($50 billion that year), the sum might not be significant in and of itself.”

Increased U.S. support to the so-called ‘moderate’ Syrian opposition could perpetuate and intensify a civil war that had begun to wind down, thereby imposing attritional costs on both Russia and Iran.

RAND believes that such support should also reduce the “moderate opposition’s” reliance on the better-armed, more extremist groups and ultimately might improve the willingness and ability of moderate opposition forces to combat the “more extremist elements.” Now, first of all RAND doesn’t even deny that the most of “moderate opposition” is made up of extremists, who are fighting against even more extreme elements.

At the same time, the reality of the situation is this: the US, with all its claims of complete withdrawal from Syria, simply employed the SDF separatist leadership as a tool of sabotaging the peace settlement in Syria, while Washington is looting Syria’s oil fields. US companies exploit Syrian oil resources. Some of the money is used to bankroll the SDF.

The Russian side has repeatedly also claimed that ISIS and ISIS-affiliated fighters were being trained and received improved weaponry in the US-controlled areas of Syria.

Unlike Ukraine, the United States does not have a single actor to aid in the fight in Syria but rather faces a plethora of groups—often with murky affiliations—increasing the chances of weapons falling into the wrong hands.

“Supporting the rebels could run counter to the most prominent objective of the Trump administration’s Middle East foreign policy—fighting radical Islamist terrorism.”

In the highly unlikely event of total success—if Russia were to abandon the Assad government and the opposition were to somehow ‘defeat’ Damascus—the result would be a major geopolitical setback for Moscow but also a major contraction in its foreign commitments and associated expenditures, not to mention a huge responsibility for the United States and its allies to assume.

At the same time, it appears that supporting the “moderate rebels” isn’t proving effective enough and Israel is picking up the slack with targeting various Syrian and alleged Iranian positions in the areas under Damascus’ control.

Chaos And Armed Conflicts: U.S. Strategy To Dismantle Russia Is Already Working

Essentially, there were some attempts, but none of them are any significant, since the fight in Syria appears to be too far gone.

Likewise, according to RAND, this course of action might have been viable a few years ago, when the armed opposition was stronger and less radicalized. Under current circumstances, the most that expanded U.S. aid could likely do would be to perpetuate a conflict that has already destabilized an entire region. Russia might be forced to pay a bit more for its Syrian commitment but only at the cost of continued regional turbulence, societal radicalization, and increased civilian casualties and displaced personnel.

Belarus

Belarus is Russia’s neighbour and important ally. It provides a buffer between Russia and major NATO countries and is the initial link in Russia’s ground lines of communication between the mainland and Kaliningrad— the Russian enclave entirely encircled by Lithuania and Poland. Already host to Russian forces, Belarus features prominently in many notional conflicts among the United States, NATO, and Russia.

In a zero-sum world, denying Russia its one and only true ally would be a clear geopolitical and ideological gain for the West. It would bring an end to “Europe’s last dictatorship,” a long-standing U.S. policy goal.

“Starting revolutions is not easy, and the United States lending public support to opposition movements does not guarantee that they will be successful. In 2007, Gallup found that 60 percent of Belarusian respondents believed democracy was important and 47 percent believed it was “somewhat” or “very” important for Belarus to have an active opposition party.”

RAND considered regime change in Belarus as one of the most significant escalations, but the attempts have all but failed, and with Russia actually not having to lift a finger.

Even despite Lukashenko attempt to get some concessions from Russia prior to the protests in the country.

“Promoting regime change in Belarus is one of the most escalatory options considered in this report. Such an effort probably would not succeed and could provoke a strong Russian response, including the possibility of military action. Such a reaction might extend Russia by requiring the nation to commit resources to preserve its grasp over Belarus, thereby provoking the United States and its European allies to respond with harsher sanctions, but the result would be a general deterioration of the security environment in Europe and a setback for U.S. policy.”

Currently, protests in Belarus are still on-going, but they’ve barely achieved any real progress in the regime change agenda. However, the Western/NATO interference in the internal situation in Belarus is an undeniable fact.

Lukashenko may be making some interesting claims regarding Russia, or attempting to play tough in order to get a discount from Moscow on natural gas, or some other commodity, but at the same time is wise enough to continue actively communicating with Russian President Vladimir Putin and remain a formal ally.

Nagorno-Karabah: Armenia and Azerbaijan

The RAND analysis begins with reminding that in 2008, the Georgian-Russian relations with damaged severely, after a few days of war and the resulting South Ossetia and Abkhazia as separate countries.

Russia also plays a key role with Azerbaijan and Armenia, particularly over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. Ethnically Armenian but geographically located within Azerbaijan, Nagorno- Karabakh’s bid to join the Armenia Soviet Socialist Republic during the latter years of the Soviet Union was denied by the Soviet Politburo because of the risk of encouraging secessionist movements elsewhere.

According to RAND, the United States could extend Russia in the Caucasus in two ways. First, the United States could push for a closer NATO relationship with Georgia and Azerbaijan, likely leading Russia to strengthen its military presence in South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Armenia, and southern Russia.

Alternatively, the United States could try to induce Armenia to break with Russia.

Chaos And Armed Conflicts: U.S. Strategy To Dismantle Russia Is Already Working

“Increased U.S. involvement in the region could produce additional economic benefits as well. The Caspian Sea remains a key producer of both oil and natural gas. Indeed, the U.S. Department of Energy estimates that there are “48 billion barrels of oil and 292 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in proved and probable reserves in the Caspian basins. Almost 75 percent of oil reserves and 67 percent of natural gas reserves are located within 100 miles of the coast.”

According to the analysis, resolving Nagorno-Karabakh is likely a prerequisite to Armenia breaking with Russia, but it is unclear precisely how the United States or NATO could resolve the decades-old conflict without privileging one side and antagonizing the other. NATO has encouraged both parties to resolve the conflict through the Minsk Group—led by the Russians.

Currently, the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh and the six-week war that started on September 27th, 2020 was due to several factors.

Notably, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, as an avid supporter of the West worked to the benefit of what RAND describes and distanced Armenia from Russia with questionable policy.

In turn, Turkey, in support of Azerbaijan saw a chance, prepared and began to largely pull the strings on Baku’s offensive on the region.

Still, Russia managed to somehow salvage the situation for Yerevan, by brokering a peace deal which saw Azerbaijan get what it was supposed to be given under the Minsk Agreements, with the addition of Shusha.

Pashinyan, however, continued blaming Russia, the Armenian population, foreign countries and such for the failure and the gross mismanagement of Armenia’s forces in the war.

Azerbaijan’s president Ilham Aliyev presents the war as “gloriously won” but there are some elements which are protesting and claiming that Moscow actually robbed Baku of its “glorious victory.”

There are anti-Russian protests, in a country in which all non-government approved protests are violently stopped.

The US made some claims for peace and so on, as did many Western countries, with France even attempting to somehow mediate the conflict, but only barely.

Paris attempted to prove itself as a valuable ally to Armenia, but in the end, it simply said “we are with you, our Armenian brothers” and all they provided were empty words.

In Armenia, in order for Pashinyan and the pro-Western leadership to remain, political arrests of the opposition began. As such, support for Russia still remains rather low, and it is playing to the measure that RAND outlined in April 2019. In the current conditions, pro-Western forces in the region would continue their efforts to destabilize the region creating chaos near the Russian border and setting conditions for the NATO expansion there.

Central Asia

Russia is part of two economic ventures related to Central Asia: the Eurasian Economic Union and the Belt and Road Initiative. Russia has benefited from both, although in the case of the former, partners might have been harmed economically. There might be steps the United States and allies could take to reduce Russia’s benefits from both of these.

Engaging more with Central Asia could have modest benefits. Expanding Central Asian connectivity to the rest of the world could reduce that area’s trade with Russia. It must be noted, however, that economic growth within these countries would likely have the opposite effect and increase their trade with Russia because economic size and trade are correlated.

Now, little of this has succeeded in the year. Notably, and not in the vein which RAND describes is that militant activity in Afghanistan, as well as along its borders with the CSTO countries has increased, which Russia sees as a threat.

There are frequent reports of the FSB arresting various terrorist elements that either came from Central Asian republics or were recruited from groups from there. There is little evidence that the US has anything to do with that, but there are some reports that unknown black hawks have been extracting militants from all around, and they’ve resurfaced in northern Afghanistan, after a while.

The US efforts to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and is attempting to counter various projects in the Eurasian Economic Union, which Russia is part of such as the Nord Stream 2, but they are unrelated to Central Asia. In conclusion, regarding this, RAND appears to be a bit far from what’s been carried out, or if such measures are being implemented – they’re not being effective.

Chaos And Armed Conflicts: U.S. Strategy To Dismantle Russia Is Already Working

Moldova

Transnistria is a Russian-speaking enclave within Moldova that currently hosts a Russian peacekeeping force and army base.

Officially, Russian policy toward Transnistria is ambiguous. Russia’s Foreign Policy Concept includes only a single, rather inarticulate statement:

Russia strongly advocates a political and diplomatic settlement of conflicts in the post-Soviet space, specifically, Russia works within the existing multilateral negotiating mechanism to find an inclusive solution to the Transnistrian issue, respecting the sovereignty, territorial integrity and neutral status of the Republic of Moldova in determining the special status of Transnistria.

The United States could encourage Transnistria’s youth (who, according to some journalistic accounts, might be more pro-West than their elders) to push their pseudo-state to leave the Russian orbit.

Moldovan cooperation in an effort to expel the Russians would not be easy to secure. In an interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Moldova’s pro-Russian President Igor Dodon stated, “A NATO office in Chisinau [Moldova’s capital], in a neutral country, is a provocation. I do not want this. I want neither NATO nor this Russia-led [military] alliance as far as armed forces are concerned.”

There’s been very limited movement throughout 2020, but it is likely that activities have been more focused on Belarus, Ukraine and Nagorno-Karabakh, and Moldova has been left for sometime in the near (or far future). The pro-Western presidential candidate, Maia Sandu, won the 2020 election in Moldova, and she’s already promoting the ideal of the need of the withdrawal of the Russian peacekeeping force from Transnistria. This move sets conditions for the increase of instability.

RAND’s General Recommendations

Extending Russia through geopolitical competition is a fundamentally difficult and dangerous proposition. One might bait Russia into extending its foreign commitments, but only at the risk of serious setbacks to local U.S. partners. Even if such efforts succeeded in generating Russian withdrawals, the result would be the opposite of an extension.

Chaos And Armed Conflicts: U.S. Strategy To Dismantle Russia Is Already Working

Any geopolitical moves to extend Russia would also need to consider other options that (for reasons of length and resources) were not considered here in depth—namely, intensifying NATO’s cooperation with Sweden and Finland, pressuring Russia’s claims in the Arctic, and checking its influence in the Arctic.

Many of these are not exactly spot on, and whether they’re entirely connected to what’s going on comes down to conspiracy theories. However, it is fact that within a year and a half of the publishing, many of these recommendations have been implemented.

There has been a regime change attempt in Belarus, which is still on-going. Armenia and Azerbaijan went to warn for Nagorno-Karabakh, and Russia had to mediate, deploy peacekeepers and further resources, as well as is being accused of both sides for either losing the war for Armenia, or stealing away a bigger victory for Azerbaijan.

Militants are being delivered to South Caucasus, and even families are being relocated there from Syria.

The US and the “moderate rebels” in Syria are still operating, albeit not as actively as before, but Israel is there to provide assistance by bombing Syrian and alleged Iranian targets.

Attempts to spread chaos in Central Asia are apparent, and the FSB continues arresting various extremist elements, but there are likely more who are roaming around and entering the country through various channels.

It is unknown what will happen in Moldova, as of yet, but the trend is alredy seen.

Another thing that could be added is cooperating with Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew of Constantinople, assisting in the forming of the autonomous Orthodox Church of Ukraine, making pushes to repeat that questionable “success” in other countries such as Montenegro, and more.

Regardless, pressure on Moscow is being exerted from quite a few directions, at the same time, and it is unlikely that under US President Joe Biden this will end. After all, his chosen aides all plan to improve relations with allies, while countering Russia’s spreading influence. Namely in Ukraine, since Biden appears to have a soft spot for the country from which he and his son allegedly funneled billions. Ukraine, and Eastern Ukraine, could also be the best direction from which to target Russia.

Things are still developing on many fronts, and the pieces are yet to fall squarely on the board.

MORE ON THE TOPIC:

Dr. Bashar Al-Jaafari’s Statement During the Security Council Session on the Political and Humanitarian Situation in Syria Bashar al-Jaafari at the Security Council 11/25/2020

Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on 

Al-Jaafari: countries hostile to Syria, particularly the US and Turkey, support terrorist organizations and separatist militias

25 November، 2020
New York, SANA

Syria’s permanent representative to the UN, Dr. Bashar al-Jaafari, said that countries hostile to Syria, on top of them the US and Turkey, continue their violations of the international law, UN conventions and Security council resolutions relevant to the crisis in Syria through supporting the terrorist organizations, separatist militias and perpetrating crimes against the Syrian people and looting their resources.

“The US occupation and its tools of separatist militias continue their practices aiming at looting the Syrian State resources, furthermore, the US occupation forces have lately excavated the antiquities in Hasaka and stolen large quantities of treasures and gold in the presence of French and Israeli experts at archaeological site in al-Malkiyah city and unearthed 12 historic tombs dating back to the Roman era,” al-Jaafari added in a statement to the UN Security council through video on the situation in Syria.

He added that the stolen priceless antiquities which date back to thousands of years are being smuggled through northern Iraq and Turkey in a preparation for transporting them to other destinations, stressing that these crimes are part of continued ones being perpetrated by the terrorist organization of Daesh with the aim of securing the financial resources for its terrorist acts.

Al-Jaafari reiterated that the political process, facilitated by the UN, is possessed and led by the Syrians and that making the work of the Committee for Discussing the Constitution a success entails respecting its principles being agreed upon, in addition to refusing any external interferences and any attempts by some states to impose timetables, adding that only the Syrian people have the right to determine their destiny.

He also renewed Syria’s condemnation, in the strongest terms, the visit of the US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, to the Israeli settlements in the Occupied Syrian Golan and the West Bank on Nov 19th, referring that this visit emphasizes the absolute bias of the current US administration until the very end of its mandate to the Israeli occupation Entity.

Regarding the International Conference on the return of Syrian Refugees recently held in Damascus on 11th and 12th of November, al-Jaafari affirmed that it has constituted a significant step to the efforts of Syrian State and its allies to ensure the voluntary, safe and good return of the displaced to their areas and their original residences.

Baraa Ali/ Mazen Eyon

Erdogan Terrorists Looted and Burned Several Houses in Northern Syria

  ARABI SOURI

Hamza Division - Erdogan Hamzat Muslim Brotherhood terrorists

Terrorists loyal to the Turkish madman Erdogan burned several houses of local Syrians in the village of Bab Al Faraj, in the northern Hasakah countryside.

The anti-Islamic Muslim Brotherhood terrorists in their continuous crimes to Israelize the northern regions of Syria under their control looted the houses of the locals in Bab Al Faraj village in Abu Rassin area, southwest of Qamishli in the northern Hasakah countryside.

https://goo.gl/maps/4TXftsZYniwsp1e28

After looting the valuables, furniture, and electronic devices from the houses the terrorists burned it down to hide their crime and prevent the locals from returning to their properties. Erdogan promised the terrorists he’s bringing from other areas in Syria and from other countries to give them the houses of the locals in areas the Turkish army and its proxy Muslim Brotherhood and Al Qaeda armed groups take control of.

Two days ago, Turkey-sponsored terrorists desecrated and looted the Church of Mar Touma in the city of Ras Al Ain in the northern Hasakah countryside in order to expel the Christian communities still living in their city.

Trump Erdogan Putin Land for Terrorists - Israel 3
Trump Erdogan Putin Proposed Land for Terrorists – Israel 3

The Turkish regime of Erdogan is carrying out a demographic change within northern Syrian province where members of the radical Muslim Brotherhood organization are housed with their families and in turn, they operate as a buffer zone between secular Syria and Turkey being radicalized by Erdogan’s ruling Muslim Brotherhood AK Party. Secularism is contagious and the Turkish madman is afraid this would loosen his grip on the Turkish state in the future as if he’s living forever or his neo-Ottoman has a future in the region.

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Syria: The complicated scene

By Abir Bassam

November 24, 2020 – 10:49

It is a dirty war that has been going on in Syria, Libya, and Yemen. Almost nine and a half tragic years have passed. The three countries were subjected to all kinds of terror and brutally destroyed. Actually, what has been going on is a world war! All weapons were used and tested and many countries were involved.

It was a real dirty war, in which the West and the Americans and their allies in the region have used the worst kind of men: a group of collaborators and barbaric terrorists. 

The worst kinds of mercenaries from all over the world were sent to Syria. They practices the ugliest inhumane deeds: they decapitated heads, literally ate hearts, and burned people alive to death. 

These groups were directly led by generals from the U.S., France, and Turkey. This information was supported by different informed resources that reported capturing French, British, and Turkish officers since 2015, in particular, during the invasion of Idlib. The district was invaded by a tenth of thousands of terrorists from Nusra, especially its group Fateh al-Sham which is directly supported and trained by Turkey, and Ahrar al-Sham which was directly supported by the Americans. The invasion was directly led by the Turkish tank battalions and the NATO alliances. 

By December 2015, the northeast of Syria was also invaded by another terrorist group, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria [ISIS]. ISIS was created with the utmost attention of Hilary Clinton, during Barak Obama’s administration. This was revealed by Donald Trump during his election campaign in 2016. ISIS swept over the al-Jazeera region and extended to Palmira through the Syrian Desert and occupied Homos, the biggest Syrian district. It was directly protected by the American extending military bases in northern Syria and the eastern base in al-Tanf. ISIS attacked both the Syrian government forces and the opposition factions. 

The plan was to allow ISIS invasion of northern-eastern Syria territories and western-northern Iraqi territories in order to terminate the opposition factions in the region. It was carefully planned by Obama’s administration and in particular his vice president Joe Biden, the new president of the United States of America.

Under the pretense of fighting terrorism, the Americans were back in Iraq and restored bases in Iraq, built new ones in Syria and reestablished new militia groups in the area of the northeast, mainly Kurdish groups. They were trained and equipped by the Americans. For the U.S., it was a necessary step to launch a Kurdish federalism on the Syrian territories.  

Nonetheless, the U.S. had set the return plan before withdrawing from Iraq in 2010. Upon its departure, the American administration empowered the al-Qaeda group in Iraq, and supported its existence, as Trump declared and accused Hillary Clinton of being the mastermind behind it. ISIS was basically the American approach to siege Syria, and eventually, apply the plan of division in the region and establish a Kurdish state. 

Saying that may seem to be naive and simple. However, executing the plan required initiating “revolutions” in other Arab countries, recruiting media specialists, recruiting special personnel to initiate eruptions by social media, and consuming billions of dollars in the process, of which the Saudi kingdom and Qatar were the main contributors.

In 1992, I was on a visit to al-Hassaka and al-Qamishli. I was just a young beginner in journalism. I was conducting an investigation report about the Yazidis. At that stage, a large number of Yazidis and Kurds were immigrating to Syria. They escaped the biased and brutal treatment of Saddam Hussein and the fanatic Turks. These Kurds were building a wide network in Europe. They bought sympathy and support to establish a federation in Iraq in 1996. The process was facilitated by the Americans after the second Persian Gulf War in 1991 as Saddam’s power was fading.

The idea of having a similar kind of federation in Syria became appealing to both the Americans and Israelis. The size of Israeli foreign intelligence service Mossad’s presence in the Iraqi Kurdistan is not a secret anymore. It is an established fact. The Americans also facilitated the Israeli presence in northeast Syria, especially those who came with American nationality to work in the oil fields.

The Turkish president Erdogan was one of the supporters of the American plan to dismantle Syria. Erdogan was able to recruit Qatar to the best interest of Turkey. Both countries were discontent with the Syrian government’s refusal to allow building the Qatari gas pipeline to Turkey through its territories. Syria saw that a move that would discomfort its allies in Russia and Iran. However, Erdogan had bigger plans in Syria. In the northwest region, Erdogan mainly saw the Idlib and Aleppo districts as the extent of Turkey, and a head starts to initiate the Ottoman dream. 

This dream vanished to thin air when Syria started liberating the area occupied by ISIS in West Euphrates, and al-Gab plain after cleaning the Damascus area, Homos, and the center of Syria from terrorism with unlimited support from Russia. The second shock Erdogan received when the Americans started supporting the establishment of the Kurdish federation in al-Hassaka. 

The Kurdish militia was founded in October 2015 under the name Syrian Democratic Forces [SDF]. SDF in its formation includes Kurds from Syria and others who came mainly from Turkey and other countries, most of them do not speak Arabic, unlike the Syrian Kurds. 60% of the militia includes Arab Syrians, according to the Pentagon. There are other nationalities included among the formation of SDF, who are Turkmens, Armenians, Circassians, and Chechens, who came from all over Asia.

In 2016, SDF updated its constitution from a separate federal state into an Autonomous Administration of Northern and East Syria [NES] and declared SDF as its official defense force, which complicated the Syrian political scene, furthermore. Now NES or SDF are cooperating with the official American forces in east-north of Syria and serve as “the Southern Lebanese Army, [SLA]” in South Lebanon during the Israeli occupation in South Lebanon. As SLA has tried to establish an independent state in South Lebanon, SDF or NES is trying to acquire the same course. 

Since 2018 the Syrian army, with the help of allies – Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah- has been able to liberate most of the occupied lands. However, the liberation coincided with the rise of economic pressure on Syria. The price of the Syrian lira if compared to the American dollar dropped and its purchasing value decreased. It was due to the economic sanctions that were imposed on Syria, and lately “Caesar Law” which was activated in the mid of June 2020. 

In 2018, the American troops withdrew from the north of Syria and were redeployed in the al-Hassaka district around the Syrian richest oil fields. The American companies, in particular ARAMCO, are now draining the Syria oil to the interest of NES and financing the American troops stationed in the northern-eastern area of the Euphrates in Syria. Actually, Syria is facing an internal problem with the lack of petroleum resources. The hard winter is coming and the lines for buying the diesel needed for heating the houses will be crowded as much as the lines for gasoline.

After burning and stealing the wheat plains in the al-Jazeera district by the Americans and the Turks, the bread prices went 25% higher. Shortage in bread supplies was triggered by the government’s decision to set the bread rations. The Americans were literally applying Kissinger’s policy which states that nations are ruled by bread, not by arms. The shortage of bread and petroleum products is new to the Syrian population; therefore, the successive Syrian governments are facing major challenges since the beginning of 2019. 

Caesar Law added additional pressure on the countries that may establish economic and commercial deals with Syria. The law was imposed at a time in which the world is suffering from COVID-19 epidemic, which spread in Syria as well. In addition, Syria needs to deal with the issue of the Syrian refugees. It is a dilemma that needs to be dealt with appropriately. The refugees’ dilemma is used as a political card to force the Syrians to submit to the American political demands, which are set on two levels: national and international.

On the national level, the international community wants to pressure the Syrian government into implementing a new constitution based on the sectarian division of power, just like Lebanon, which would diminish the presidential authority and redistribute it, as it happened in Tunisia and Sudan, which would divide the power of the head of the state. The second issue is related to the question of the forcibly disappeared people, who were kidnapped or killed by the rebel groups, and treating the killers and kidnappers as political opponents without subjecting them to trials. This issue will be a matter of conflict, and will not be accepted by those whose families and friends were kidnapped or killed. This fact was revealed a few days ago by the new Syrian Foreign Minister, Mr. Feisal Muqdad. 

On the international level, the requirements of the international community, i.e. the U.S., have become common knowledge.  Since 2003, after the invasion of Iraq, the U.S. secretary of state, Colin Powell, came to Syria and laid down the U.S. demands: dismantling Hezbollah arms, ending Syrian support to the resistance groups in Lebanon, Palestine, and Iraq, and ending cooperation with Iran in the region. The end means, as usually explained, is ensuring the security of Israel. 

Naturally, the Syrians refused American demands. Therefore, we should make no mistake and assume that what had happened in the Arab region under the pretense of “Arab Spring” was meant for the destruction of Syria in order to dismantle it into minor sectarian states that can be easily controlled to the best interest of “Israel” and America.

Hence, Syria requires two essential needs to start its reconstruction process: the first is lifting the sanctions imposed on it; and the second is to end the American occupation in the northeast area. However, the West insists on linking lifting the sanctions to the political process. But when it comes to the achievement of the liberation from the Americans this process cannot be realized unless the national resistance would be highly activated in the northeast of Syria. It is America that we all know. It did not end its occupation of Vietnam, Korea, and eventually Iraq in 2010 until the number of causalities becomes unbearable in the American community.

Syria’s essential needs were clearly stated by its president Bashar Al-Assad on two occasions, the first was during a video call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the 10th of November. The second time was in his speech at the opening of the International Conference on the Return of the Refugee in Damascus [ICRRD] on the 11th of November.

During his visit on the 5th of November to the exhibition “Producers 2020” in “Tekia Sulaymaniyah” in the capital, Damascus. It was attended by producers from the Aleppo governorate whose facilities, workshops, and shops were damaged during the war. President al-Assad talked about the economic impact of the issue of shortage of oil supplies and burning the wheat fields in northeastern regions. 

He also explained that the economic problem was clearly becoming worse when the banks in Lebanon blocked the Syrian deposits. President al-Assad said that there is vagueness about the Syrian deposit’s estimations. Its assessment ranges from 20 billion dollars to 42 billion dollars. The blockade has been going on for years. He added the crisis began years before the Caesar Law and began years after the siege. It coincided with the money disappearance in the Lebanese banks. Furthermore, al-Assad declared that we do not know what the real number is, and this figure for an economy like the Syrian one is a frightening number.

Al-Assad’s declaration became one week before ICRRD to which Lebanon was invited. Was this a message to Lebanon? It could be, although many observers have denied it. The denial is basically based on Syria’s previous special treatment of Lebanon. Lebanon in the Syrian considerations are two contradictory facts: the first, Lebanon is an opening to the western world with bipolar swings. The first swing expressed in the historical Arab and regional ideology.

And the second swing is expressed in the lining towards a Western ideology, with the tendency to sign normalization agreements with “Israel”. The second group was of great concern to the Syrians since the creation of Lebanon. It is known as the right-wing groups, who allied with the Americans and the Israelis. 

The second fact, Lebanon as a state is based on providing services and tourism. It is considered to be the lung that Syria needs to breathe with. However, this lung health became worse since 2011, when the United States accused the Lebanese Canadian Bank of laundering terrorism money. And then again in 2016, since many banks faced the same accusations and were prohibited to deal with customers that the U.S. listed them as Hezbollah members.

Accordingly, the Lebanese banks froze several balances for many customers and in particular the Syrian customers that were importing goods to Syria through Lebanon after imposing an embargo on Syria. It is clear for the Syrians, regardless of the unique relationship with Hezbollah, it is about time that Lebanon should release these balances, and pay its debts to Syria, especially the debts that have been accumulating since 1990, which are the revenues from selling electricity.

Syria, as President al-Assad explained, will need its money in the process of rebuilding the country’s main infrastructure and vital installations, which were destroyed during the liberation war against the terrorist groups. It is a call for Lebanon to join forces with Syria to demand lifting the embargo and to be excluded from Cesar Law consequences because Lebanon needs to open up to Syria for commercial trades towards the east, in particular, to Arab countries, or Lebanon will be demanded to pay back its debts. 

The Americans were pushing Syria and the region since 1973 towards peace and normalization treaties with “Israel”. However, Syria has proven that such an agreement would be difficult to execute unless it was a “peace for land” agreement, which would ensure the right of return of the Palestinian people. An equation, nor the Israeli, neither the Americans are willing to sign for. In addition, Syria’s main condition, during the negotiations held in Oslo in 1992, was the return of all occupied Arab territories. However, the series of recognitions Trump has approved throughout his reign made the return to the negotiation table almost impossible. It also pushed into more complications with the relation between Syria and Lebanon since the assassination of Rafiq al-Hariri in 2005. The need to separate the Syrian-Lebanese course in the peace process is becoming a must for the Americans. A need until today could not be achieved.

Syria now is subjected to American pressure that requires its approval to initiate peace and normalization agreements with Israel. This goal so far was difficult to achieve, especially after Trump’s recognition of the Golan Heights as part of Israel. Even Syria’s allies, in particular Russia, cannot force the Syrians to give up part of their land. Syria’s war on terror has spared all its allies the tragedy of dragging this war into their own territories. 

Hence, Syria prepaid in blood for the security of its “friends” now. History will, sooner or later, reveal this fact. Syria’s insistence on the unity of its land, and its refusal to have any divided authority is now a fact. The Syrians cannot compromise it, and the allies cannot go against it. The course of negotiations the allies led in Astana and Sochi has affirmed it. However, this fact has complicated the Syrian scene furthermore. It might even force the Americans to lead directly the war in the region, whether in arms or diplomacy, since the proxies have proven their disabilities.

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