سورية وإيران عجلتا في نهاية عصر الهيمنة الغربية!

أغسطس 30, 2019

د. وفيق إبراهيم

اعتراف الرئيس الفرنسي ايمانويل ماكرون بأن العالم يشهد نهاية عصر الهيمنة الغربية جدير بالتحليل.

لأن الانهيارات التاريخية لا تحدث فجأة بل تجتاز مراحل وتطورات وتبدلات في السيطرة على المناطق الضعيفة والغنية بمواقفها وثرواتها.

هذا ما شهده العالم منذ انهيار الاتحاد السوفياتي في 1989 والذي حاول الأميركيون بعده إعادة تشكيل الدول لتوطيد هيمنتهم الأحادية وسط تعاون أوروبي غربي لافت مع الإقرار بحدوث اعتراضات من بلدان أوروبية إنما ليس للتخفيف من نظام الهيمنة الغربي، بل لتوسيع المحاصصة بين دوله.

السيد ماكرون هنا كان واضحاً عندما اعترف بأن النظام الدولي يتغير كلياً بصورة غير مسبوقة وفي جميع المجالات، كاشفاً ان الهيمنة الفرنسية البريطانية واخيراً الأميركية في القرون 18 و19 و20 تدهورت على الرغم من التعاون التاريخي بين دولها، لكنها ارتكبت الكثير من الأخطاء منها إبعاد روسيا عن أوروبا والتدخل في الكثير من الازمات، بشكل غير محترف كاشفاً أن روسيا والصين والهند هم أجزاء اساسية من النظام العالمي الجديد، لما حققوه من انجازات اقتصادية وسياسية وعسكرية، معترفاً بأن روسيا موجودة في كل النزاعات العالمية وتزحف نحو أفريقيا داعياً الى علاقات واسعة تحرر أوروبا من تداعيات استمرار الصراع الأميركي الروسي على أراضيها.

ماكرون اذاً، ادرك مسبقاً التحولات التاريخية المرتقبة محاولاً رسم خريطة جديدة لتموضعات بلاده في محاولة لتأمين دور صاعد لها. وهذا ما يفعلهُ الانجليز والالمان ومعظم الأوروبيين و»إسرائيل» وتركيا وبلدان كثيرة.

بناء عليه يخوض الأوروبيون مجابهات هذا التموضع الجديد محاولين تسهيل نظام عالمي غير محتربٍ يستند الى تفاهمات بين روسيا والصين وأميركا والهند بالتعاون مع فرنسا والمانيا، اي ما يشبه القيادة الجماعية المتعاونة برؤوس ثلاثة هي أميركا والصين وروسيا مع مشاركة نسبية للهند الصاعدة بسرعة وأوروبا التي تسعى للعودة الى الازدهار على اكتاف هذا الحلف الجديد.

السؤال هنا هو عن الظروف التي عجلت بالاعتراف الأوروبي بانتهاء هيمنة غربية عمرها ثلاثة قرون استباحت فيها ثروات العالم وإمكاناته ولم تأت بطيب خاطر بل بتحولات مختلفة.

لا شك في البداية أن العودة الروسية التدريجية الى الميدان العالمي وتموضعها في معظم الأزمات من أوكرانيا وفنزويلا وسورية وإيران مع بداية تسلل الى معظم أزمات العالم أنهكت الهيمنة الغربية.

ورفدتها الصين بانتشار اقتصادي عالمي استفاد من العولمة من ناحية ورخص سلعها من ناحية ثانية لاكستاح أسواق العالم. الصين اليوم هي الثانية عالمياً لكنها تتهيأ في اقل من عقد واحد لاندفاعة تحتل فيها مكانة القطب الاول، بدورها الهند الثانية عالمياً بعديد السكان تتوثب اقتصادياً. ويكفي هنا انها اصبحت تنتج ما يستهلكه الهنود وتتحضّر لاحتلال جزء من السوق العالمية بسلع مقبولة وبأسعار أقل من اسعار السلع الصينية.

إنها اذاً حرب الاقتصاد تندلع على مساحة العالم للسيطرة على ثلاثة ارباع سكان الارض هم مجمل طبقاته الفقيرة والوسطى. وهذا ما يجعل السلع الصينية والهندية قابلة للتسويق.

من جهتهم فهم الأميركيون هذا السياق محاولين تعطيله باجتياح الشرق الاوسط منذ احتلالهم لافغانستان في 2001 وحروبهم في العراق منذ التسعينيات وحصار إيران منذ 1980 محاولين تدمير دولتها بدعم حروب شنّها عليها الرئيس العراقي السابق صدام حسين لمدة تسع سنوات متواصلة وبتمويل سعودي خليجي انتهت باحتلال أميركي متواصل للعراق منذ 2003.

يتبين ان المحاولات الأميركية الأوروبية لحماية نظام الهيمنة الغربي الكوني أدرك ان ضبط الشرق الاوسط في «السجن الغربي» تحمي سيطرتهم المطلقة، لأنه مصدر معظم ثروات الطاقة من نفط وغاز ومركز أساسي للاستهلاك فبلدانه متخلفة وغير منتجة وقرون اوسطية تستخدم الرشى الاقتصادية والدين والقمع لحجز الناس في أنظمة ملكية توتاليتارية تشكل جزءاً من نظام غربي يحميها مقابل الاقتصاد.

انها اذاً إيران التي تجابه حتى الآن محاولات الغرب لتدمير دولتها وإعادتها الى السجن الغربي، ان نجاحها في الصمود عرقل خطط انعاش الهيمنة الغربية لأنها لم تكتفِ بالدفاع عن إيران، بل أحدثت خرقاً كبيراً في نظام السيطرة الغربي على الشرق الأوسط ببناء تحالفات مع جزء من افغانستان الذي يحتله الأميركيون وقسم من باكستان والهند الى اليمن حليفها القوي، والعراق الوازن وسورية ولبنان وغزة في فلسطين.

هذا ما أدّى الى عرقلة واضحة لجهود الغرب في ترميم هيمنته، خصوصاً أن الدور الإيراني أتاح لكل من روسيا والصين فرصة التطور فيما الغرب وكل الغرب منهمك في محاربة الجمهورية الإسلامية في إيران متسبباً بتقدم الهند وارتياب تركيا وذعر «إسرائيل» والسعودية من التغييرات الكبيرة في النظام العالمي الجديد.

فتحولت العرقلة اهتزازاً وبداية تصدع في المواقف بين الأميركيين والأوروبيين.

لقد اعتقد الأميركيون ان السيطرة على سورية بعد احتلالهم للعراق يحمي هيمنتهم في الشرق العربي من خلال إلغاء التأثير العراقي على الخليج. وضبط هذا البلد في السياسات الأميركية وتفتيت سورية على نحو يحمي «إسرائيل» والى الأبد فصالوا في سورية فاتحين ابواب الحدود التركية الأردنية والعراقية وحدود لبنان لمرحلة محدودة، لكل انواع الارهاب الدولي والتدخلات العسكرية الغربية بقيادة الجيش الأميركي والغارات الاسرائيلية والمخابرات الأردنية وبدعم مالي على مستوى التسليح والاستشارات والتحريض الإعلامي من السعودية والخليج.

لقد سقط ملايين الشهداء والقتلى في سورية في حروب كر وفر نجحت فيها الدولة السورية باكتساح مناطق الإرهاب حتى أصبحت تسيطر على ثلاثة أرباع البلاد.

فجاء هذا الدور السوري إجهاضاً مباشراً لمحاولات إنقاذ الهيمنة الغربية لأن تدمير سورية كان من شأنه الغاء القضية الفلسطينية والإمساك بلبنان والعراق واليمن وإضعاف إيران وفتح ابواب الشرق بكامله للسياسة الأميركية من خلال الخليج وتركيا.

هل سورية هي آخر المعارك لترميم الهيمنة الأميركية؟ إنها المعركة الأخيرة التي تؤرخ لسقوط الاستعمار الغربي. وهذا يمنح سورية والعراق ادواراً إقليمية متيحاً لإيران التموضع على مقربة من النظام العالمي وفي قلب الدور الإقليمي الأساسي.

وذلك، فالمعتقد أنه كان على ماكرون الفرنسي الاشارة بوضوح الى دوري سورية وإيران في زعزعة الجيوبوليتيك الأميركي، ويبدو أن الصين وروسيا هما اللتان تقدران هذين الدورين وذلك باستمرارهما بدعم إيران وسورية وعلى كل المستويات.

Trust is Failing On Both Sides of the Pond

By Tom Luongo
Source

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I’ve been warning for a while now that we are pushing towards an inflection point in history.  With each passing week it feels like events are accelerating as change to the status quo is everywhere.

In Europe, the EU leadership and Theresa May are so desperate to stop Brexit they can’t stop lying about everything.  In one day we have May’s government found in contempt of Parliament for not releasing the full legal advice of her Brexit deal and the European Court of Justice pronounce that the U.K. can unilaterally cancel Brexit if they want to.

They are this desperate because there is a real probability of May’s horrific deal not getting the thumbs up from parliament. That said, the arm-twisting behind the scenes is likely epic as one by one May’s remaining cabinet members come out in favor of the deal because they see they have no other option.

At the same time France is literally on fire thanks to a good ol’ fashioned tax revolt, which reviled, unprepared and arrogant President Emmanuel Macron cannot fathom.  Macron’s handling of these protests has been abysmal, displaying a level of contempt for the French people so profound he may wind up more hated in the end than Theresa May.

Both of these odious people make no bones about their real loyalties and the more they talk, the more they try to sell their latest betrayal of national interests for Brussels’ the more the intensity of the hatred of them increases.

This is not a linear thing.  It’s the kind of situation that goes from murmurs and shrugs to outright violence in a matter of days.

Especially when you come out and tell the very nationalistic French people that nationalism is akin to evil.

In Macron’s case raising the tax on diesel fuel was a bridge too far.  Pathetic global warming, globalist ideologue that he is, he castigates the people who are materially harmed by this tax as ‘thugs’ and then doubles down when they get even madder.

So it’s no surprise that his calling a moratorium on it for six months was rejected by the protesters.

They know they can’t trust Macron.

With France’s tax rates already nearly the highest in the so-called first world the burden of this tax would have fallen heaviest on the people just barely surviving existing ruinous government policy.  All taxes are marginally regressive, even progressive income taxes.

And those taxes which are a flat rate tax on a per item basis are the most regressive.  Just because you make more money doesn’t automatically mean you are going to eat more food or drive your car more.

Hence, the tax falls disproportionately as a percentage of marginal income on the lower economic strata.

And Macron tried to sell himself as a reformer.  There’s nothing unique about raising taxes in France.  If Macron wanted to be novel, he would have lowered fuel taxes.  You improve the lives of people by removing the burden of paying for worthless little leeches like him and the massive bureaucracy that supports his patent idiocy like taxing fuel to combat global warming.

The less said about Theresa May the better but just so everyone is clear May gave the EU everything they wanted, not because she’s a bad negotiator but because she’s a bad liar.  Every day she lies telling everyone who will listen (and that number is dropping daily) that she’s working for the people of Britain.

No she is not.  She’s working for the British ruling class and its entrenched bureaucracy who are in league with their counterparts in Brussels to erect an unassailable oligarchy across Europe.

May, Juncker, Tusk and Merkel have intentionally run the clock out while doing the political calculus that the Tories are so scared of a Labour takeover that they’ll all roll over in the end, hold their nose and vote for this complete sell out of what’s left of British sovereignty.

But, if you think I’ve been harsh to this point I’ve saved the best for my own so-called President, Donald Trump.  For a while I gave Trump the benefit of the doubt, thinking he was doing his best beset by a U.S. political establishment which is the worst kind of cruel.

But, after the fiasco of the mid-terms and his systematic capitulation to all things neoconservative, Trump has become a parody of himself on foreign policy. By allowing the paranoid John Bolton to convince Trump that everything neocon is in the interest of America First Trump has now embraced every foreign policy lie he campaigned against.

His own lack of moral center has led to his having a complete lack of moral courage in confronting the vast apparatus arrayed against him.

To the point where he doesn’t announce policy decisions that he knows are unpopular with not only his base but also the center of the country he needs to get re-elected in 2020.  He leaves that job to the disgusting and stupid Mike Pompeo.

Trump’s need to be liked is his Achilles’ heel and it’s been used by the Deep State to destroy him.

He fancies himself a deal-maker and so it was easy for him to be led by his nose (because remember, he doesn’t believe in anything except leverage) by Bolton et.al. to unilaterally abrogate any treaty that is inconvenient to their cause of world subjugation on the basis of it not being fair to America.

Hence, Russia’s new weapons are something the U.S. can’t deal with so to counter them the INF treaty has to go.  It’s regrettable, a shame, bad, whatever Trump tweets out about it.

The imperial power always grows increasingly paranoid that everyone is out to destroy them.

Because the imperial power knows in its heart that it’s awful.  That it has abused and destroyed people the world over and they are angry.  They know this is true and because they would want revenge, they expect everyone else to want the same thing.

The politically strong dictate and only negotiate out of weakness.  Leaving the INF treaty while leaving the door open to a deal is an admission that Russia’s weapons have to be countered by breaking the treaty to put missiles on Russia’s doorstep because Bolton can’t conceive of a day where Russia and the U.S. are not adversaries.

I’ve said from the beginning that Trump would have to allow the neocons to run things for a while and then when their schemes ran aground, he would reverse them all and use that reversal to win the broad support of a war weary and pissed off American electorate, regardless of the Democrats’ blatant and upfront voter fraud.

But, Trump is beyond that now.  He told us of his hatred for Iran on the campaign trail and all Bolton and Mattis and the rest of the Gang That Can’t Invade Straight had to do was sell Trump on the tired canard that more death, more troops, more weapons is the path to victory.

Trump is so desperate for a couple of tenths of GDP he sold out his people for this.  He’ll stay in office just long enough to go from savior to villain, just like every other potential U.S. reformer.

The take away from the failures of these three main leaders of the increasingly unfree world is that confidence in them, their governments and the systems that make up and support them is failing rapidly.

And confidence lost is never regained.  Once the public trust is breached it is never regained.  And that’s where rapid societal change sprouts from, catching those who think they are in control off guard completely, like Macron was over the diesel protests.

All of these people are weak-minded fools.  James O’Keefe of Project Veritas Action wrote a brilliant article over the summer in which he defined the difference between moral courage and physical courage.  Nearly every man is willing to lay down his life for his cause.  That’s physical courage.

It’s easy you don’t have to live with the fallout of your acts since you’re dead.

But moral courage is willing to be the villain, to stand athwart the crowd and risk your reputation for what you believe in.

This is why the Tories in parliament will vote for May’s Brexit Deal.  They don’t want to be blamed for the mess of a hard Brexit they fear.  This is why Macron will implement the worst neoliberal policies.   He doesn’t want to be called a traitor by the media and oligarchy who made him.

And it’s why Trump will not MAGA. He was willing to Drain the Swamp as long as it didn’t cost him and his family his brand and his reputation.  He was willing to talk the talk but not walk the walk.  Now he just rambles on Twitter like a pathetic loser while Putin’s prophecy about his presidency comes true.

“Presidents change,” he said to Oliver Stone in the Putin Interviews, “Policy doesn’t.”

And as we approach the moment where a critical mass of people see the costs of maintaining this vacuum of moral courage we call a society rise above the benefits of it the closer we are to the worst kind of chaos.

The World Order That’s Now Emerging

By Eric Zuesse
Source

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The Post-World-War-II world order was dominated by the one WWII major combatant that had only 0.32% of its population (the lowest percentage) killed by the war: the United States. The Soviet Union’s comparable number killed by the war was the highest — it was 13.7% — 42.8 times higher than America’s. The US was the main force that defeated Japan and so won WWII in Asia. The USSR, however, was the main force that defeated Germany and so won WWII in Europe. The USSR suffered vastly more than did the US to achieve its victory. In addition to suffering 42.8 times the number of war-deaths than did US, the USSR’s financial expenditures invested in the conflict, as calculated by Jan Ludvik, were 4.8 times higher than were America’s financial expenditures on the war.

Thus, at the war’s end, the Soviet Union was exhausted and in a much weaker condition than it had been before the war. By contrast, the US, having had none of the war’s battles occurring on its territory, was (by comparison) barely even scratched by the war, and it was thus clearly and overwhelmingly the new and dominant world-power emerging from the war.

That was the actual situation in 1945.

The US Government did not sit on its haunches with its enormous post-war advantage, but invested wisely in order to expand it. One of the first investments the US made after the war was the Marshall Plan to rebuild the European countries that had now become the US aristocracy’s vassal-states. The heavily damaged USSR possessed no such extra cash to invest in (rebuilding) its vassals. Furthermore, the USSR’s communist regime was additionally hobbled by Karl Marx’s labor theory of value, which produced prices that contained no useful information about demand and thus no constructive information for planners. (Planning is essential regardless whether an enterprise is private or public.) Thus, the USSR was doomed to lose in its economic competition with The West, so that the Cold War was actually a losing proposition for them, from the very start of the post-war era. America’s post-WW-II dominance, combined with Marx’s crippling economic theory, and produced the exodus of East Europeans to The West.

America’s aristocracy thus increasingly rose on top internationally. Like any aristocracy, the American aristocracy’s main concerns were foreign trade, and so US international corporations increasingly expanded even at the expense of the corporations owned by its competing, now-vassal, aristocracies, and the US aristocracy’s corporations and brands thus came to dominate the entire capitalist sphere. The growth-bug, if it becomes an addiction, is itself a disease. Out of control, it is a cancer, which can destroy the organism. This is what happened in America. Conquering also the communist sphere was the US aristocracy’s long-term goal, so that they would ultimately dominate every nation, the entire world. By the time of 1980, the US aristocracy’s top goal (world domination) became also the US Government’s top goal. The cancer had spread to the culture’s brain. Growth, backed by “Greed is good” economics, became practically the American religion, viewed as patriotic, and not merely as the nation’s economic model (which was bad enough, with its increasingly imperialistic thrust — such as 2003 Iraq, 2011 Libya, 2012 – Syria, 2014 Ukraine, 2016 – Yemen, and maybe now Iran).

America’s unchallengeable dominance lasted from then till now, but clearly has now reached near its end. The United States is trying to restore its post-Soviet (post-1991) global supremacy, by intensifying the US regime’s secret war against Russia and its allies, which started on the night of 24 February 1990 and which could reach a crescendo soon in WWIII unless something will be done by America’s allies to force the by-now wildly flailing US aristocracy to accept peacefully the end of the American aristocracy’s hegemony — the termination of their, until recently, unchallengeable control over the world. By now, with the Soviet Union and its communism and its Warsaw Pact mirror of America’s NATO military alliance gone since 1991 and yet no peace-dividend but only ever-increasing wealth-concentration into the tiny number of billionaires who benefit from war weaponry-sales and conquests, America needs to abandon its addiction to growth, or else it will proceed forward on its current path, to WWIII. That’s its current path.

According to Josh Rogin in the Washington Post on November 14th, US Vice President Mike Pence had just said, as Rogin phrased it, that “the United States has no intention of ceding influence or control over the [Pacific] region to Beijing” and that if China won’t do everything that the US demands, then the US is fully prepared to force China to obey. The same newspaper had earlier presented Robert D. Kaplan, on October 9th, saying, “The United States must face up to an important fact: the western Pacific is no longer a unipolar American naval lake, as it was for decades after World War II. The return of China to the status of great power ensures a more complicated multipolar situation. The United States must make at least some room for Chinese air and naval power in the Indo-Pacific region.” But the US regime is now making clear that it won’t do that.

The US regime appears to be determined to coerce both Russia and China to comply with all American demands. With both of those countries, as with Iran, the US regime is now threatening hot war. Trump, as the “deal-maker,” is offering no concessions, but only demands, which must be complied with, or else. The United States is threatening WWIII. But what nations will be America’s allies, this time around? If many European nations abandon the US, then what?

Key for the US regime is keeping the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

Rockefeller Capital Management, Global Foresight, Third Quarter 2018 presents Jimmy Chang, Chief Investment Strategist, headlining “Nothing Trumps the Dollar, Yet”. He writes: “The reserve currency status gives the US a significant advantage in handling its finances. American economist Barry Eichengreen observed that it cost only a few cents for the US to print a $100 bill, but other countries would need to produce $100 of actual goods or services to obtain that $100 bill. The world’s need for the greenback allows the US to issue debt in its own currency at very low interest rates. French Finance Minister Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, who later became the president, coined [in 1965] the term ‘exorbitant privilege’ to describe America’s advantage” of the US dollar over any other nation’s currency. That “exorbitant advantage” never went away. Chang concludes: “As for the King Dollar, its short-term outlook appears robust.” However, few other observers now share that view. Increasing numbers of countries are pricing goods in other currencies, and China’s yuan and the EU’s euro are especially significant contenders to end dollar-dominance and to end the advantages that US-based international corporations enjoy from dollar-dominance.

Other than dollar-dominance, the key barrier to world peace is NATO, the military alliance of the northern aggressor-nations. Proposals have been put forth for the EU to have its own army, which initially would be allied with NATO (i.e., with the US regime). On November 17th, Russian Television bannered “EU army: Will it be easy for Europe to get rid of American political diktat?” and pointed to the US vassal-nations that would be especially likely to stay in NATO: UK, Poland, Netherlands, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. Perhaps the other EU nations and Russia could form their own military alliance, which will formally be committed to the independence of those US vassal-nations, and which will welcome individual peace-treaties with each of them, so as to indicate that aggression is only the US regime’s way, and thus to lay the groundwork for peace instead of war, going forward. Clearly, the people who control the US are addicted to invasions and coups (“regime-change”s), instead of to respecting the sovereignty of each nation and the right of self-determination of people everywhere. America’s conquest-addiction threatens, actually, every other nation.

Perhaps a reformed and truly independent EU can provide the new reserve currency, and also in other ways the foundation for global peace between nations. NATO will be irrevocably opposed to this, but it could happen. And if and when it does, it might tame the aristocratic beast that rides the American warfare state, but this isn’t likely to happen anytime soon. A step forward toward it is the courageous statement by “The Saker” at the American news-commentary site, Unz dot com, on November 15th, “Thanking Vets for Their ‘Service’ – Why?” He boldly notes that after World War II, all US invasions have been criminal, and that it’s a remarkably long string of evil — and this doesn’t even include the many coups, which have likewise destroyed some nations.

Nationalism is just as evil in today’s America as it was in Hitler’s Germany. It is hostile to people in any other nation. It demands conquest. And wherever nationalism rules, patriotism dies and is replaced by nationalism.

Only by restoring patriotism and eliminating nationalism can WWIII be avoided. Ending dollar-dominance is part of the path toward an internationally peaceful world that focuses more on serving the public’s needs and less on serving the aristocrats’ cravings. But ending NATO is also necessary.

Either these things will be done, or there will be WWIII.

Pakistan in the Middle of Saudi, Iran and Rival Pipeline Plans

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