AZERBAIJANI FORCES PUSH TO SEIZE LARGEST KARABAKH CITY. DRONES STRIKE TARGETS INSIDE ARMENIA

Azerbaijani Forces Push To Seize Largest Karabakh City. Drones Strike  Targets Inside Armenia - YouTube
Video

On October 2, the Armenian-Azerbaijani war entered its 5th day. Forces of the Azerbaijani military, supported by Turkey, continued their attempts to capture the contested Nagorno-Karabakh Region and to dismantle the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, which is overwhelmingly populated by Armenians.

Intense artillery duels and Azerbaijani airstrikes are being reported across the entire frontline in Karabakh, and even near some parts of the Azerbaijani-Armenian border. Nonetheless, the main clashes still take place in the districts of Fizuli and Jabrayil, where Azerbaijan have achieved their main gains capturing several positions from the Armenians. The Azerbaijani artillery together with Turkish-made and Israeli-made combat drones played a key role in the tactical successes of Azerbaijan on the battlefield.

On October 1, the Armenian military even claimed that 4 Azerbeijani combat drones entered Armenian airspace and 3 of them were shot down, allegedly by the S-300 system. Additionally, the Armenian Defense Ministry claimed that its forces had shot down three Azerbaijani fighter jets and two helicopters. The Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan dismissed the Armenian claims, calling them “complete nonsense and fake news.”

It insists that the Armenian side uses claims about attacks on its territory in an attempt to trigger the Collective Security Treaty Organization pact and obtain direct military support from Russia in the conflict in Karabakh, which formally is not its territory. What is even more strange, despite the 5 days of open war, the Armenian leadership has still not started the process for the recognition of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic or the official integration of the region into Armenia. Therefore, it has no even theoretical legal grounds to request CSTO help in a conflict on its territory.

Meanwhile, the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, known for its anti-Assad and pro-militant stance in the Syrian conflict, reported that dozens of Turkish-backed Syrian militants had been killed, injured or went missing while fighting against Armenian forces in Karabakh. According to the SOHR, 28 of them were killed and 62 others were injured or went missing. The report alleges that at least 850 Turkish-backed Syrian militants were deployed there. It should be noted that, according to Armenian estimates, their number is about 4,000. France and Russia also expressed their concern regarding the moving of militants to the region. In turn, Azerbaijani and Turkish media and officials insist that Armenia deploys members of Kurdish armed groups, considered to be terrorists by Ankara, to the combat zone. Nonetheless, these claims have not so far been supported by any evidence.

The self-styled Neo-Ottoman Empire of President Recent Tayyip Erdogan is on a full-scale propaganda offensive to instigate an Armenian-Azerbaijani war.

On October 1, the United States, Russia and France released a joint statement condemning the violence in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, calling on the sides to accept a ceasefire and return to the negotiating table. In response, President Erdogan made a fierce statement slamming the OSCE and claiming that Azerbaijan should continue its military push to capture the Nagorno-Karabakh region and thus the war with Armenia.

“I would like to declare that we are together with our brothers in Azerbaijan in their struggle for the liberation of their occupied land. The path to lasting peace in this region lies through the withdrawal of Armenia from all the spans of the Azerbaijani lands occupied by them,” Erdogan said addressing the Turkish Parliament. “Especially the so-called Minsk trio America, Russia, France and their seeking of a ceasefire in the face of this negative situation, which has been reflected these days because they have neglected this problem for nearly 30 years, is above all not acceptable,” he added.

In the best traditions of Turkish public diplomacy, Erdogan simultaneously accused Armenia of triggering the military escalation. Meanwhile, Turkish state media reported that during the recent phone call Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov that Turkey sees no reason for a ceasefire in Karabakh for as long as the region remains in the hands of Armenian forces.

Earlier, the Turkish leadership at the highest level declared that it is ready to provide any help, including military, to Baku. The Armenian side claims that Turkey is in fact participating in the war on the side of Azerbaijan.

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TURKEY RAMPS UP ITS INVOLVEMENT IN ARMENIAN-AZERBAIJANI WAR

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Turkey Ramps Up Its Involvement In Armenian-Azerbaijani War - YouTube
Video

Azerbaijan has given Turkey control over the air segment of its military campaign to capture the Nagorno-Karabakh region, the Armenian Defense Ministry reported on September 30. According to Artsrun Hovhannisyan, Turkish and Azerbaijani aviation is being coordinated by the E7-T aircraft of the Turkish Air Force, which is an air command post. The military plane was spotted near the Turkish cities of Erzurum and Kars.

“It is possible that the leadership of the Turkish Air Force is on board this plane,” Hovhannisyan added.

As an example of such actions, the Armenian side claimed that two Turkish F-16 fighters, an Azerbaijani Su-25 attack aircraft, as well as a Turkish combat drone “Bayraktar”, which took off from the city of Kurdamir, had inflicted a missile and bomb attack on the Karabakh towns of Hadrut and Martakert.

Further a command and control post for Turkish combat drones is located near the city of Hadrut. It is reportedly coordinating the strikes of Azerbaijani warplanes.

Pro-Armenian sources insist that the Chief of General Staff of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces Najmaddin Sadigov was in fact removed from his command of the Karabakh operation at the behest of Turkish military advisers and specialists. Sadigov was allegedly an opponent of the dramatically increased influence of Turkey in the Azerbaijani military.

Armenia also showed photos of its Su-25 attack aircraft, which, according to it, was downed by a Turkish F-16 on September 29. The pilot of the Su-25, Major Valery Danelin, died. In their turn, Turkey and Azerbaijan insist that the Turkish Air Force and other branches of Turkish military are not involved in the conflict. According to Fahrettin Altun, the head of the communications department of the Turkish presidential administration, Armenian claims are “another fantasy of the Armenian military propaganda machine.” The Azerbaijani side, in turn, said that two Armenian Su-25 warplanes crashed into the mountain and exploded, the rest is absurd and disinformation.

Since September 30, the situation on the frontline between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces has not changed significantly. Despite this, intense firefights, artillery duels and air strikes are being reported along the entire contact line. Armenian sources accuse Azerbaijan and Turkey of intentional bombing of civilian areas of the Nagorno-Karabakh republic, including its capital, and even inside Armenia itself.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan, which ceased to name areas allegedly seized from the Armenians, insists that its forces have captured several key positions on the frontline. According to Baku, since the morning of September 27, its forces have destroyed up to 200 battle tanks and other armored vehicles, 228 artillery pieces, rocket launchers, mortars, 30 air defense systems, 6 command-control and observation posts, 5 ammunition depots, more than 110 vehicles and an S-300 anti-aircraft missile system. The number of killed or injured Armenian fighters was not provided but if one checks previous Azerbaijani reports, it has supposedly already exceeded 1,000.

On the other hand, the Armenian side said that during the last 24 hours only 130 Azerbaijani service members were killed, 260 others were injured, 32 military equipment pieces were destroyed and 13 UAVs were downed.

Both sides regularly release videos showing the destruction of enemy positions and equipment. Nevertheless it seems that without more active participation from the Turkish side, Azerbaijan is unable to deliver a rapid and devastating military blow to Armenia and thus capture the contested region. However, if the regional situation remains same, the Azerbaijani military is likely to have the upper hand in any developing war just because it has more manpower, weapons, military equipment and ammunition.

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Israeli ‘Kamikaze Drones’ a Popular Item in the Azeri-Armenian War (VIDEO)

September 30, 2020 

The Israeli K1 ‘Kamikaze Drone’. (Photo: File)

By Palestine Chronicle Staff

“Hats off to the engineers who designed it,” Hikmet Hajiyev, assistant to the president of Azerbaijan, said in reference to the Israeli-made attack drones which Azerbaijan is reportedly using in its war with its neighboring Armenia.

Hajiyev ‘s comments were made during an interview with the Israeli Walla news outlet on Wednesday and were reported in The Times of Israel. 

Armenia and Azerbaijan entered into a new phase of their protracted conflict Sunday over the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region. 

Turkey has emerged as Azerbaijan’s most visible ally in the ongoing violence, with Armenia on Tuesday accusing Turkey of using an F-16 fighter jet to show down a SU-25, killing its pilot.

(The Palestine Chronicle)

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Syrian mercenaries suffer heavy losses against Armenian troops: report

By News Desk -2020-10-01

BEIRUT, LEBANON (10:40 A.M.) – The Syrian mercenaries, who were sent to the Karabakh region to fight on behalf of Azerbaijan, have suffered significant losses over the last 48 hours, as their death toll continues to rise.

According to Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), the Turkish-backed Syrian mercenaries have suffered heavy losses in the Karabakh region, as 28 fighters have been killed and 60 more have been wounded in clashes with the Armenian forces.

The SOHR report corroborated a claim made by Syrian fighter to the BBC on Wednesday about being deceived during their recruitment to Azerbaijan.

The first Syrian casualties were reported on Wednesday morning, when local activists in northern Syria began reporting about the losses of fighters from the Turkish-backed militant groups.

However, their deployment to Azerbaijan took a turn for the worse this week, when heavy clashes broke out between the Azerbaijani military and Armenian forces.

In an interview with the BBC, a Syrian fighter named ‘Abdullah told the news agency that their forces were deployed to the front-lines and threatened with imprisonment if they refused to go.

Its should be noted that despite the claims about the Syrian casualties, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense maintains that no foreign fighters are currently fighting in their ranks.

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Armenia vows to use Iskander missiles if Turkey deploys F-16s to Azerbaijan

By News Desk -2020-09-29

BEIRUT, LEBANON (9:20 A.M.) – The Armenian ambassador to Russia, Vardan Taganyan, said on Monday that his country would use its Russian-made Iskander missiles if Turkey began to use F-16s in Karabakh, explaining that his country has sufficient air defense systems to get rid of Turkish drones.

“The military leadership has repeatedly stated that if the Sword of Damocles was deployed in the form of Turkish F-16 fighters on the Karabakh people, all measures would be taken, including the use of the Iskanders. That is, the Armed Forces of Armenia would have to fully use their arsenal to ensure security. ”

The Nagorno Karabakh region announced on Monday that 27 Armenian fighters were killed during clashes with the Azerbaijani army, bringing the total of the military deaths to 58.

“27 soldiers were killed in the fighting on Monday,” the Defense Ministry in Karabakh said in a statement on the second day of the fighting. The total number of dead rose to 67, including nine civilians killed, seven in Azerbaijan and two on the Armenian side, according to Agence France-Presse.

World leaders urged a halt to the fighting after the worst clashes since 2016 raised the prospect of a new war between former Soviet states Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Officials in Baku and Yerevan said violent clashes continued throughout Monday. The Ministry of Defense in Karabakh claimed that its forces repelled the Azerbaijani tank attack on the southern sector of the front line.

The Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense said that its forces destroyed “several artillery units of the enemy with a precise blow.”

ALSO READ  Greece vows to not back down despite Turkey’s threats

Armenia and Azerbaijan have been locked in a regional conflict since the 1990s, when the Armenian-majority Karabakh declared independence after a war that claimed 30,000 lives.

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Turkey’s Destructive Role in the M.E and Europe

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Tuesday, 15 September 2020 10:49

Turkey has for a longtime now been the enzyme that speeds problems in the area of the Mediterranean. Still unable to stomach the Treaty of Lausanne(1923) which defined the borders of modern day Turkey it has for a long time now been scheming to extend its borders by land grabbing from other countries. This can be clearly depicted in two countries Cyprus and Syria .In 1974 Turkey attacked Cyprus and occupied a third of the island and formed on its own the “Republic of Northern Cyprus” recognized by no country in the world except its creator. In Syria the story is even sadder – not satisfied with usurping Alexanderetta ,Turkey opened its borders to terrorists to infiltrate Syria and aided and abetted them(During the war of terror on Syria). Now it has taken a further step by arming and training terrorists and by actually sending its troops inside Syria. Turkey dreams of a revival of the Ottoman Empire and for that to happen boundaries must change and towns and cities might have to be erased. A question arises –why does no one do anything about  this? Why is the world silent while Turkey wreaks havoc where it wants. What is the UN doing or for that matter the EU?

 Syriatimes carried out an interview with EU parliamentarian Athanasios Konstantinou to clarify certain points.

  Member of European Parliament  to ST: EU’s appeasement of Turkey, has deeply injured the trust of Greek citizens

 Member of European Parliament Athanasios Konstantinou reckons that hollow actions that have no political and economic impact will be taken by the EU against Turkey for political propaganda reasons.

 He told Syria Times e-newspaper that from the 1980 till today, more than 60.000 Turkish planes have infiltrated Greek airspace not counting the paralleling actions of the Turkish navy.

 Konstantinou, in addition, has pointed out that U.N. repeatedly over time appears  powerless and without the will to enforce international law and in that way tolerate NATO to act in their place.

 Here below is the full text of the interview:

1-Can you tell us about the origins of the gas drilling dispute between Greece  and Turkey? 

For many decades Turkey has applied a calculated foreign policy that aims to seize as much of the Aegean Sea as possible, part of a larger plan to enforce itself as a Mediterranean power.

 This policy is obviously effective, due mostly to the failure of all past and present Greek governments (and their allies) to efficiently protect the Greek borders. This explains why Turkey defies international law and openly and officially threatens war, if Greece exercises its rights to the “12 nautical miles” international law, in Aegean.

A major phase for the implementation of their strategy was the occupation of Northern Cyprus. Until then, the Turkish plan was a “paper” one, but since then, Turkey is moving with real steps. Consider that from the 1980 till today, more than 60.000 Turkish planes have infiltrated the Greek airspace  not counting the paralleling actions of the Turkish navy.

 All major powers and alliances endorse the Turkish plan, otherwise the occupation of Cyprus, with its obvious geopolitical effects, would not have been tolerated and possibly would have not been tried by the Turks!

 So in that light, what we see now regarding the “drilling dispute” as you put it, is not surprising.

2-Is the United Nations able to influence Turkey?? 

The United Nations, unfortunately, wasn’t able in the past and cannot in the present, influence Turkey. Allow me to remind your readers that, for the illegal Turkish occupation forces in Cyprus, U.N. voted two resolutions, ordering the withdrawal of the Turkish army.

 Nothing of the kind has happened.

 Furthermore, the UN voted on an arms embargo for Libya, an embargo, today de facto ignored by Turkey and other countries.

 The greater issue here is that, U.N. repeatedly over time appears powerless and without the will to enforce international law and in that way tolerates NATO to act in their place.

And NATO’s first priority, of course, is the protection of USA’s interests and not the international law.

3-Many EU emergency summits were held concerning this issue, were the results positive?

The results of these summits, can barely  be described as “not-negative” but we certainly cannot define them as positive. In my opinion, European Union with its appeasement Turkish policy, has severely damaged the trust of the European peoples in the Union. And without any doubt, has deeply injured the trust of Greek citizens. After all, Greek borders are part of the E.U. ’s borders. And the Greek economy as well. When a malicious outsider defies your borders and tries to rip-off your wealth and you don’t defend either, then you void the reasons for your own existence as a Union.

4- Is the EU likely to approve  sanctions on Turkey ? What kind of sanctions will they be and most importantly how effective?  

So far, everything points out that no real measures or sanctions will be imposed on Turkey from E.U. Only hollow and without political or economic impact actions will be taken and only for political propaganda reasons.

If this is the case, then we are led to believe that EU politics obey and serve not the interests of European citizens but those of  big international financial lobbies. And I know that this is most frustrating for the Syrian people also, because you have felt this injustice through the sanctions imposed to Syria.

5-How does Libya enter into this equation? 

The Turkish involvement in Libya, is the second major stepping stone, of their plan to promote themselves to a Mediterranean power, as I have pointed out earlier.

The Turkish government wisely tries to capitalize on NATO’s great mistake and injustice on Libya, where once more, international financial lobbies have indicated policies aiming to gain and disregard the will of the peoples. The result was chaos in Libya and opportunity for Turkey. This is why other countries like Egypt, counteract against the Turkish actions.

Editor in chief : Reem Haddad

Basma Qaddour

هل اقتربت الحرب النهائية في سورية؟

د. وفيق إبراهيم

تتراجع الموانع التي كانت تحول دون فتح معارك واسعة لطرد الأميركيين من شرقي الفرات والأتراك من منطقة ادلب.

هذا استنتاج روسي أطلقه وزير خارجيتهم لافروف الذي أعلن أن المعارضة السورية التقليدية انتهت ولم يبق إلا هيئة تحرير الشام وريثة منظمة القاعدة في ادلب المدعومة من قوات تركية منتشرة فيها، مضيفاً ان الاميركيين في شرق الفرات يحتلون المنطقة بالتعاون مع انفصاليين أكراد وتسرق شركاتهم الاميركية النفط السوري.

هناك اذاً تحولٌ عميقٌ في الموقف الروسي الذي يحدد للمرة الأولى ضرورة العمل على تحرير شرقي الفرات وطرد الهيئات الإرهابية من مناطق النفوذ التركي.

ولتجميل موقفه قال إن الاتراك يعملون على تضييق الرقعة التي يسيطر عليها الإرهاب في ادلب.

لماذا هذه الاندفاعة الروسية المفاجئة؟

يعتقد البعض أنها ردة فعل على التدخلات الاميركية الخطيرة في بيلاروسيا التي تستهدف النفوذ الروسي فيها بالإضافة الى الضغوط الأميركية على المانيا واوكرانيا وتركيا لإلغاء الخطوط التي تنقل الغاز الروسي الى اوروبا.

يمكن إضافة التحركات الاميركية العنيفة لإسقاط الرئيس الفنزويلي مادورو صديق الروس والصينيين.

قد تكون هذه الأسباب راسخة في العقل الروسي، لكنها ليست عناصر وحيدة تحكم المعطيات الحقيقية.

لذلك تجب العودة الى مركزية الأسباب المتعلقة بأمرين: انهيار المعارضات الداخلية السورية واستمرار الاحتلالين التركي والاميركي.

الى جانب حصار اقتصادي اميركي يقفل حدود سورية مع الأردن والعراق ويعمل على إقفالها نهائياً من جهة لبنان، خصوصاً أن معلومات فرنسية كشفت عن سرقة مصرفية مشبوهة أخلت فيها بنوك لبنانية ودائع سورية قيمتها أربعون مليار دولار تقريباً كان رجال أعمال سوريون يستخدمونها لاستيراد بضائع للزوم الأسواق السورية عبر حدود لبنان.

بما يعني أن هذا الحصار الأميركي للبنان وسورية يريد خنق البلدين معاً.

ولا يمكن ايقافه إلا بإلغاء الدور الاحتلالي الأميركي في شرق سورية وذلك لإلغاء المشروع الانفصالي الكردي وتحرير آبار النفط والغاز لإعادة استخدامها في تلبية الاستهلاك السوري الداخلي الذي يتعرّض حالياً لأزمة وقود كبيرة هي جزء كبير من ازمة اقتصادية عامة تدفع بسورية الى مزيد من الفقر.

هذا الى جانب اقتراب موسم الشتاء الذي يستهلك فيه السوريون عادة كميات أكبر من الطاقة.

أما الأسباب الأكثر عمقاً فلها علاقة بإصرار الدولة السورية على تحرير كامل أراضيها المحتلة، انسجاماً مع وطنيّتها وتطبيقاً للقانون الدولي الذي يعتبر أي قوة عسكرية تتموضع في أراضي بلد آخر غير دولتها ومن دون موافقة اصحاب السيادة هي قوة احتلال، يمكن التعامل معها بالقوة المسلحة.

الموضوع اذاً ليس موضوع قوانين دولية ينتهكها الأميركيون بشكل دائم منذ خروجهم الى ملعب المنافسات الدولية بعد انتصارهم في الحرب العالمية الثانية في 1945.

إنها مسألة موازين قوى تدفع مَن يحوز عليها الى تحصيل حقوقه. هذا في حالة سورية، او الاعتداء على الآخرين وفق النموذج الاميركي والتركي.

وفقاً لهذا المعطى المثبت بالأسانيد التاريخية، تستشعر الدولة السورية والحليف الروسي والصديق الايراني ان انتهاء المعارضات السورية الداخلية هو التوقيت الدقيق للبدء بالتعامل مع آخر المعوقات التي لا تزال تعرقل سيادة سورية على كامل أراضيها واستعادتها للموقع الداخلي والإقليمي والازدهار الاقتصادي.

ما يجب التأكيد عليه بعد هذه القراءة ان تصريح لافروف هو نتيجة مشاورات مع الرئيس الأسد وقيادته استناداً الى تغيير في موازين القوى الداخلية لمصلحة حلف الدولة السورية.

لجهة هذه الموازين، يكفي أن هناك تمرداً من أبناء شرق الفرات على الحلف الأميركي – الكردي يتطوّر بسرعة نحو التحالف مع الدولة السورية على الرغم من محاولات سعودية – إماراتية لإعادة جذب العشائر السورية في الشرق لحضن الأميركيين وبالتعاون مع قوات قسد الكردية الانفصالية.

كما أن أبناء ادلب وشريط الحدود السورية مع تركيا يعلنون سخطهم من الدور التركي الذي يصفونه بشبيه الاحتلالات الأميركية والتركية.

هل تندلع الحرب السورية على الأميركيين والأتراك في وقت قريب؟

الظروف أصبحت ناضجة إلا أن الواضح ان الروس يعوّلون على علاقاتهم بالأتراك لإقناعهم بالانسحاب من ادلب ويعتقدون ان انطلاق المقاومة الشعبية السورية في شرقي الفرات بالتنسيق مع الجيش العربي السوري هو الفيصل في إقناع التركي بالتراجع الى أراضيه من دون أي تسويات لا يزال يصرّ عليها بين الدولة السورية والاخوان المسلمين.

تشير هذه المعطيات الى أن الازمة السورية تدخل الحروب الأخيرة من معارك تحرير سورية واستعادتها لسيادتها من جهة ودورها الإقليمي في كبح مسلسل التطبيع من جهة ثانية وتحالفاتها العربية والإقليمية والدولية التي تعمل على إسقاط النظام الأحادي القطبي الاميركي لمصلحة عالم أكثر أماناً واستقراراً.

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RUSSIAN CLOUDS OVER TURKISH-BACKED JIHADI PARADISE IN IDLIB

SouthFront

Russian Clouds Over Turkish-Backed Jihadi Paradise In Idlib
Video

On September 16, hundreds of protesters gathered near those Turkish military positions in Greater Idlib, which are surrounded by the Syrian Army, demanding the full withdrawal of the Turkish Army from Syria.

The largest protests took place near Turkish observation posts at Murak and Alsurman. Both these posts were surrounded by Syrian troops during the military operation against Turkish-backed al-Qaeda terrorists in southern Idlib. A majority of the protesters who took part in the event were from the nearby towns and villages, including Murak, Alsurman and Tell Touqan.

In the best traditions of Turkish ‘democracy’, Turkish soldiers from the Murak observation post responded to the protesters with tear gas.

Later on the same day, the Turkish government claimed that the observation posts had become the target of provocations and even individual attacks fomented by the ‘Assad regime’. According to the Turkish side, Turkish forces successfully repelled the provocation.

Meanwhile, Russian-Turkish military consultations on the conflicts in Syria and Libya have been ongoing in Ankara. According to Russian state media, Moscow proposed that the Turkish military reduce the number of observation posts in Greater Idlib, but the proposal was rejected. Nonetheless, Russian state media reported, citing their own sources, that Turkey had agreed to reduce the number of troops deployed in Idlib.

Currently, Ankara has almost 10,000 troops and thousands of pieces of military equipment, including battle tanks and artillery, in northwestern Syria. If the media reports are true, the formal and widely-promoted withdrawal of a dozen Turkish military trucks with several dozen troops will not change the situation strategically. Ankara has repeatedly demonstrated that it is not interested in a real fight against terrorism in Syria and that it in fact uses Idlib terrorist groups to promote its own agenda. This posture could be changed only under the increasing pressure of circumstances and regular friendly reminders from Turkey’s ‘strategic partners’.

As one such reminder over the past few days, the Russian Aerospace Forces conducted more than a hundred airstrikes on infrastructure and positions of the Turkish-backed terrorists. These strikes started last weekend and as of the morning of September 17, it does not seem that they will be fully halted anytime soon. Clouds have once again gathered over the jihadi paradise, which is being created by the Erdogan government in northwestern Syria.

The hypothetical compromise: The end of 10 years of war in West Asia

Source

September 5, 2020 – 23:12

On my way back from the south to Beirut two months ago, Elea crossroad in Saida was closed. As I took the long [S] turn to be able to reach Beirut road again, I came across the Lebanese Army.

I stopped the car next to one of the officers and asked him: “What is going on? They are not more than 20 young men and women! How could they? Why don’t you send them back home? The officer said: “It is better to let them steam off!” He added: “It is the Turkish intelligence! They are sending millions of American dollars to start eruption and chaos in Lebanon.”

The Lebanese Army confirmed the information a while after the incident. On the 4th of July, Lebanese Interior Minister Mohammad Fahmi announced that four citizens, including two Syrians, were arrested as they were trying to smuggle $4 million. He said that the money was meant to finance “violent street movements”.

He added that instructions were given via WhatsApp to promote violence against the government.

The Turkish role in the Arab countries has been escalating since the war on Syria in 2011. It is not a secret anymore that tens of thousands of terrorist fighters entered Syria through Turkey and were protected by Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s regime. Unfortunately, the Arab region is not only facing a new Ottoman dream but also a new wave of colonialism led by the Americans and their puppets.  

In his speech on the 10th of Muharram, Ashura, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah several times repeated that Syria has won the war. Nasrallah’s description of Syria’s situation is shared with several observers, who perceive that Syria awaits the international political solution. Nonetheless, whether it is going to be a compromise, or it is going to coincide with Syrian political demands, we need to wait and see.

It is practical to understand the complications in West Asia. The region has been on a hot tin roof since the burst of the Arab eruptions in 2011.  The Americans titled the eruptions as “the Arab Spring” are now recognized as the “Arab Drought.” 

The area has been going through an endless chain of wars with terrorism and occupation forces, which exhausted it and awaiting compromises. Complicated and interrelated files, such as the war on Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Egypt, and Libya, need to be solved. However, there are two factors that delay the solution. The first is Turkey, which seems to have its own agenda. And the second is the so-called Deal of the Century. 

Today, the struggle has been fueled among the allies, who started the war on Libya, Syria, and Yemen. According to several resources, the powers that have led the wars are now accelerating the steps towards proper solutions. And each one of them is trying to save face and withdraw with minimum losses. 

Ten exhausting years have passed on West Asia (the Middle East). It witnessed the discovery of gas fields in the Eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea. Countries and their major companies are rushing to ensure shares in the new gas fields’ investments. Amongst them is Turkey, which is demanding a place in the eastern Mediterranean shores.

Accordingly, through the “Muslim Brotherhood” parties, Turkey has found a way to be part of the struggle in West Asia. It seems that Turkish President Erdogan is trying to undo the Ottoman’s defeat in the First World War. He is leading to constant wars against Arab countries. For most of the Arabs in the region, these wars are manipulating the Islamic world and leading to the destruction of their countries. It distorts the attention from the true enemy, which is “Israel,” and leads to the rise of Islamic “radicalism” and terrorism. 

Turkey has accelerated the struggle with Arab countries in Libya. Add to that, the current military exercises by Greece and Turkey over the rights of natural gas fields and the legal rights in the marine economic zones. The exercises have escalated EU awareness towards Turkish intentions. Subsequently, it led to further tension with the EU. 

The main force behind the current events in West Asia was the U.S. plan to create what they call” the New Middle East”. The plan was supposed to be applied by force in 2003, starting with the war on Iraq, but it failed. Combined regional forces resisted Iraq’s division, and the resistance was able to force the final withdrawal of the Americans in 2011. Ironically, in the same year, the Arab eruptions started in different Arab countries. 
Nonetheless, ten years of a brutal war on Syria revealed the following aims:

1-     The war mainly aimed to secure the safety of Israel. The Americans set in mind that controlling Syrian territories will eventually lead to controlling the flow of arms to Hezbollah.

2-     Controlling the gas and petrol pipes running through Syria to Turkey and Europe. By doing so, Iran, Russia, and eventually China fuel trade will be monitored and controlled.

3-     Changing the Arab regimes to pro-Turkish or Islamic Brotherhood’s governments and Saudi controlled ones to control the Arab decision in the Arab League and eventually dissolve it.

4-     Making way for the (Persian) Arab Gulf countries to sign peace treaties with Israel, this has already started with Abraham Accord.

5-     Giving Israel full control over gas and oil production and distribution through the Mediterranean Sea to Europe.

Not all of the goals set were achieved! The power of Turkey was controlled in Tunisia, Egypt, Sudan, and Libya. Furthermore, Europe now considers Turkey as a greater danger to the peace and security of West Asia, Northern Africa, and Greece. In addition, Europe was flooded by waves of migrants that crossed to the continent through Turkey, whom it used as a pressure card to manipulate Europe for greater benefits.

This has provoked different European countries that saw their interests were threatened, not only by Turkey but also by the United States. The latter has taken the world into economic chaos after the election of Donald Trump, who canceled all trade agreements and the nuclear agreement with Iran. Trump prohibited European trade with Iran and China and issued sanctions that disabled Europe.

Therefore, Iran’s successive diplomatic and legal victories at the UN Security Council in August were the first step towards a solution and a serious step towards peace in the region. They represent the first political triumph of the axis of resistance. The sequence of events is directing now towards another series of steps that should be perceived soon.

Soon the Syrian forces and its allies are heading towards implementing the Astana Accord by force. As soon as the Syrian Army is in control of Jesser al-Shogor and the Zawiah Mountain again, it will take control of the Syrian territories from Latakia to the Syrian-Iraqi borders, east of the Euphrates included.

Once the Syrian accomplishment is reached in Jesser al- Shogor, the Americans are not only leaving Iraq but Syria as well. In addition, the Iranians are leading now negotiations with Western powers through the German mediator concerning the nuclear agreements. However, an informed person revealed that the talks are including terms to end the American presence in Syria. This means that all foreign forces, including Turkish ones, are leaving, through force or voluntarily.

However, the Turks are negotiating with the Russians the possibility of keeping a couple of cities, but the Syrians refused it.

After the big blast in Beirut’s harbor on the 4th of August, the Turkish foreign minister offered to rebuild the harbor when he visited Beirut. This must-have provoked the French again. Erdogan’s new attempts to be involved in Lebanese affairs has raised doubts over his intentions for the European Union [EU], especially France. Paris tries not to allow Turkey to approach Beirut’s harbor. This would leave Turkey as the biggest loser in the region again. 

The upheaval Turkey created with Greece is leading it again to a conflict with Europe. Although Germany is leading to serious negotiations with all sides of the dispute, it seems that there are not any foreseen solutions in the near future. Europeans now identify Erdogan as the supporter of radical militant groups fighting in different Arab countries. These actions are of great concern to Europe. Rumor has it; Turkey now needs to be controlled. Western powers are planning to divide it again into two states, Western Turkey and Islamic Turkey. Of course, that is left for time to tell.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer.

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Turkey in Western Calculations… Intelligence, Ideology and Military

August 25, 2020 Arabi Souri

Trump: 'Erdogan in the Smallest Pocket' - Syria News Archive - Turkey USA Syria Libya
Trump: ‘Erdogan in the Smallest Pocket’ – Syria News Archive

The following is the English translation from Arabic of the latest article by Turkish career journalist Husni Mahali he published in the Lebanese Al-Mayadeen news site Al-Mayadeen Net:

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan emphasized, during the inauguration of the new building of the National Intelligence Service (MİT) in Istanbul, on July 26, “the important role that the agency played in the military and political successes achieved by Ankara in recent years, thus becoming a regional and international power to be reckoned with in all forums and areas.”

President Erdogan’s words came as an affirmation of the “militarization of Turkish foreign policy,” whereby the Turkish army is present in Syria, Libya, Qatar, Somalia, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Afghanistan, and Bosnia, in coordination and effective cooperation with the intelligence that directly reports to Erdogan, as is the case of the military establishment after the failed coup attempt on July 15, 2016.

Erdogan took advantage of this coup and used it to serve his larger project, which is to amend the constitution and change the political system from parliamentary to presidential in April 2017, and he became the absolute ruler of the country since that date. Ankara’s regional policies have witnessed very important changes after that date, the most important of which is more intervention in Syria, especially in the Idlib file, and the sending of the Turkish army to Qatar in June 2017, and then to Libya, with more military operations in northern Iraq, and the building of military bases in Somalia.

And Turkish intelligence, according to President Erdogan’s words, had an important and main role in all of these activities, in addition to a supportive role in other countries and places in the region and Africa, and some European countries as well, which is what French President Macron and German officials talked about in particular.

These data were sufficient for America, France and Britain to place Turkey at the top of its intelligence interests, with the increasing Turkish military and intelligence role regionally and internationally. All this thanks to the wide network of relations established by the various Turkish agencies with large numbers of followers, supporters and loyalists of President Erdogan around the world.

The first initiative was from President Trump, who appointed Gina Haspel as head of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CİA) in May 2018. It is known that she speaks Russian, she is an expert on Russian affairs, and she is an expert on Turkish affairs, which means that Washington wanted to You kill two birds with one stone, especially since the appointment came after Astana and before Sochi, as Haspel worked in Azerbaijan, and then held the position of assistant chief of the CIA in Ankara, and at a very important time, where she learned the Turkish language well.

And press information talked about her role in the kidnapping of PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan from the Kenyan capital Nairobi on February 14, 1999, after she played a key role in the arrest of two al-Qaeda operatives in Azerbaijan, accused in the bombings of the US embassy in Kenya and Tanzania. On August 7, 1998, Osama bin Laden also participated in it.

Haspal’s “successes” were not limited to her contributions to these two stories, but rather it was said that they also played an important role in transporting the preacher Fethullah Golan to America a month after the handover of Ocalan to Ankara, as then Prime Minister Bulent Aguet said: “Why did the Americans hand us Ocalan with this? The shape? ”, To prove in subsequent years that Ocalan and Golan were, and still are, the two main issues that occupy the Turkish state’s mind. And it looks like they will keep that way with the AKP in power.

Haspal’s sudden visit to Ankara on October 23, 2018, for several hours, and her meeting with President Erdogan, confirms its continued interest in the Turkish file, as the visit was days after the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi Consulate building in Istanbul. This crime, and after information obtained by Haspal in Ankara, was an important paper in President Donald Trump’s bargaining with Mohammed bin Salman, as a start on the path to the so-called “Deal of the Century”, and the Saudi surrender to Washington’s slavery after the Turkish-Qatar alliance in June 2017. And under the American umbrella, namely the “Al Sailiya” and “Al Udeid” bases.

Washington was not the only one in this regard, that is, its interest in Turkey, as France and Britain joined it, the two parties to the Sykes-Picot Agreement, and what was attached to it from the Balfour Declaration, and also the establishment of the Hebrew state, with the support of America, the master of the capitalist world, after World War II. President Macron was ahead of Washington when at the beginning of 2017 appointed Bernard Amy as head of the French Foreign Intelligence Service (DGSE), after he served as his country’s ambassador in Ankara for the period 2007-2010, then he moved to Algeria, then London, Beirut and Amman, where he became director of the North Africa Administration in French Foreign Ministry.

Amy speaks Turkish fluently, and he is highly experienced in all of Turkey’s domestic and foreign policies, and Turkish history in general, which may explain the words and positions of President Macron against Turkey and his personal positions against President Erdogan, whether in Libya or Cyprus, Greece and the Eastern Mediterranean, and his support for Islamists in Europe and the world, which is what Ambassador Amy knows very well.

As for the British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, and his grandfather of Ottoman origins, he was not late in his role in this field, as he appointed Richard Moore on July 30 as the head of his country’s intelligence (Mİ6), amid great Turkish media and political interest in this choice. Moore, who was born in Tripoli (Libya), worked as his country’s ambassador to Malaysia and Pakistan, which has a distinctive relationship with Turkey, before he was appointed his country’s ambassador to Ankara for the period between 2014 and 2017, where he established wide relations with Turkish officials after he mastered the Turkish language. Press information predicted for the Turkish-British relations, which is always distinctive, unlike the relations with all the countries of the European Union, to witness a significant development on the basis of coordination and military and intelligence cooperation during the reign of Richard Moore.

The choice of those who speak the Turkish language, and are fully aware of the Turkish issue, reflects the great interest that Washington, London and Paris attach to the current and future policies of Turkey, which has become clear that it relies on two basic elements that complement each other, namely the intelligence and the army, which work within the framework of President Erdogan’s ideological directives, as the head of National Intelligence Hakan Fidan accompanies President Erdogan on most of his foreign visits.

In turn, Moscow is closely watching these Erdogan policies, given its relationship with all the arenas in which it meets or contradicts Ankara, the most important of which are in Syria and Libya, and through it in the rest of the region, with Erdogan challenging President Putin in Ukraine, the Caucasus, Central Asia, and even self-governed republics within the borders of the Russian Federation, where there are about 25 million Muslims, most of them of Turkish origin.

This interest may be a reason for the importance that President Putin attaches to his advisor and spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, who graduated from the Turkish Language Department in Moscow and then worked for a long time at the Russian Embassy in Ankara, where he became familiar with all the developments of this neighboring country now and in the Soviet era, Turkey was a front trench for NATO and America against communism, and the Russian Empire was the greatest enemy of the Ottoman Empire, at least until Lenin’s Communist revolution in 1917.

And everyone knows that had it not been for the support of this revolution, Ataturk would not have been able to achieve his victory over the colonial countries, namely France and Britain, and with them Greece and Italy, which ended with the Lausanne Agreement of 1923, with the establishment of the Turkish Republic on the ruins of the Ottoman Empire, as if history always repeats itself, even if in different forms and models in which the intelligence services played and performed important roles that decided, is deciding, and will decide the fate of the countries and the peoples, as is the case now in the Arab geography which was drawn by a young man named Lawrence, who bought the allegiances of the sheikhs of the Gulf tribes who were promoted from loyalty to the old colonial to serve the new master “Israel”, and its intelligence is the most knowledgeable of all their secrets! And as “Israel” was aware of all Turkey’s secrets, and through the followers of Fethullah Golan in the Turkish security and intelligence services, who were spying until the end of 2013 on the communications of all Turkish officials, both military and politicians, and at the forefront Erdogan, who said that they were spying even on his bedroom, while the pro-Erdogan media accused Golan and his followers, at one time with being agents for America, at other times for Germany, and in the end, ‘Israel’, which has become fully aware of all the secrets and hidden acts of the Turkish state.

End of the article

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تركيا في الحسابات الغربيّة.. مخابرات وعقيدة وعسكر

تركيا في الحسابات الغربيّة.. مخابرات وعقيدة وعسكر

حسني محلي 

المصدر: الميادين نت

24 اب 14:41

يعكس اختيار سفراء يتكلمون اللغة التركية، ويعتبرون ملمّين بشكل تام بالشأن التركي، الاهتمام الكبير الذي توليه واشنطن ولندن وباريس بالسياسات الحالية والمستقبلية لتركيا.

أكّد الرئيس التركي رجب طيب إردوغان خلال افتتاحه المبنى الجديد لجهاز المخابرات الوطنيةفي إسطنبول، في 26 تموز/يوليو الماضي، “الدور المهم الذي أداه الجهاز في النجاحات العسكرية والسياسية التي حققتها أنقرة خلال السنوات الأخيرة، فأصبحت قوة إقليمية ودولية لا يستهان بها في كل المحافل والمجالات”.

جاء كلام الرئيس إردوغان تأكيداً على “عسكرة السياسة الخارجية التركية”، حيث يتواجد الجيش التركي في سوريا وليبيا وقطر والصومال والعراق وأذربيجان وأفغانستان والبوسنة، وذلك بالتنسيق والتعاون الفعال مع الاستخبارات التي تتبع مباشرة لإردوغان، حالها حال المؤسَّسة العسكريَّة بعد محاولة الانقلاب الفاشلة في 15 تموز/يوليو 2016.

وقد استغلّ إردوغان هذا الانقلاب وسخَّره خدمة لمشروعه الأكبر، ألا وهو تعديل الدستور، وتغيير النظام السياسي من برلماني إلى رئاسي في نيسان/أبريل 2017، فأصبح الحاكم المطلق للبلاد منذ ذلك التاريخ. وشهدت سياسات أنقرة الإقليمية بعد ذلك التاريخ تحولات مهمة جداً، أهمها المزيد من التدخل في سوريا، وبشكل خاصّ في ملف إدلب، وإرسال الجيش التركي إلى قطر في حزيران/يونيو 2017، وبعدها إلى ليبيا، مع المزيد من العمليات العسكرية في الشمال العراقي، وبناء القواعد العسكرية في الصومال.

وكان للمخابرات التركية، بحسب كلام الرئيس إردوغان، دور مهم ورئيسي في مجمل هذه الفعاليات، يضاف إليها دور داعم في دول وأماكن أخرى في المنطقة وأفريقيا، وبعض الدول الأوروبية أيضاً، وهو ما تحدث عنه الرئيس الفرنسي ماكرون، والمسؤولون الألمان بشكل خاصّ.

وكانت هذه المعطيات كافية بالنسبة إلى أميركا وفرنسا وبريطانيا، حتى تضع تركيا في أولويات اهتماماتها الاستخباراتية، مع تزايد الدور التركي العسكري والاستخباراتي إقليمياً ودولياً. كل ذلك بفضل شبكة العلاقات الواسعة التي أقامتها الأجهزة التركية المختلفة مع أعداد كبيرة من أتباع الرئيس إردوغان وأنصاره والموالين له في جميع أنحاء العالم.

وكانت المبادرة الأولى من الرئيس ترامب، الَّذي قام بتعيين جينا هاسبل رئيسة للمخابرات الأميركية المركزية في أيار/مايو 2018. ومن المعروف عنها أنها تتكلم الروسية، وهي خبيرة بالشأن الروسي، كما أنها خبيرة بالشأن التركي، وهو ما يعني أن واشنطن أرادت أن تضرب عصفورين بحجر واحد، وخصوصاً أنَّ التعيين جاء بعد أستانا وقبل سوتشي، فقد عملت هاسبل في أذربيجان، ومن ثم شغلت منصب مساعد رئيس مكتب المخابرات الأميركية في أنقرة، وفي توقيت مهم جداً، حيث تعلَّمت اللغة التركية بشكل جيد.

وتحدثت المعلومات الصحافية عن دورها في عملية اختطاف زعيم حزب العمال الكردستاني، عبد الله أوجلان، من العاصمة الكينية نيروبي في 14 شباط/فبراير 1999، بعد أن أدت دوراً أساسياً في عملية اعتقال عنصرين من القاعدة في أذربيجان، متهمين في تفجيرات السفارة الأميركية في كينيا وتنزانيا في 7 آب/أغسطس 1998، والتي شارك فيها أسامة بن لادن أيضاً.

ولم تقتصر “نجاحات” هاسبال على مساهماتها في هاتين القصتين، بل قيل إنها أدت دوراً مهماً أيضاً في نقل الداعية فتح الله جولان إلى أميركا بعد شهر من تسليم أوجلان إلى أنقرة، إذ قال رئيس الوزراء آنذاك بولنت أجويت: “لماذا قام الأميركيون بتسليمنا أوجلان بهذا الشكل؟”، لتثبت السنوات اللاحقة بأن أوجلان وجولان كانا، وما زالا، القضيتين الأساسيتين اللتين تشغلان بال الدولة التركية. ويبدو أنهما سيبقيان على هذا الحال ببقاء حزب العدالة والتنمية في السلطة.
وجاءت زيارة هاسبال المفاجئة إلى أنقرة في 23 تشرين الأول/أكتوبر 2018 لعدة ساعات، ولقاؤها الرئيس إردوغان، ليثبت استمرار اهتمامها بالملف التركي، إذ كانت الزيارة بعد أيام من مقتل الصحافي جمال خاشقجي في مبنى القنصلية السعودية في إسطنبول. وكانت هذه الجريمة، وبعد المعلومات التي حصلت عليها هاسبال في أنقرة، ورقة مهمة في مساومات الرئيس دونالد ترامب مع محمد بن سلمان، كبداية على طريق ما يسمى بـ”صفقة القرن”، والاستسلام السعودي لعبودية واشنطن بعد التحالف التركي-القطري في حزيران/يونيو 2017، وتحت المظلة الأميركية، أي قاعدتي “السيلية” و”العديد”.

لم تكن واشنطن الوحيدة في هذا المضمار، أي اهتمامها بتركيا، فقد لحقت بها فرنسا وبريطانيا، طرفا اتفاقية سايكس بيكو، وما لحق بها من وعد بلفور، وحتى قيام الدولة العبرية، بدعم من أميركا، سيدة العالم الرأسمالي، بعد الحرب العالمية الثانية، فقد سبق الرئيس ماكرون واشنطن عندما قام في بداية العام 2017 بتعيين برنارد إيمي رئيساً لجهاز الاستخبارات الفرنسية الخارجية ، بعد أن خدم كسفير لبلاده في أنقرة للفترة 2007-2010، لينتقل منها إلى الجزائر، ثم لندن وبيروت وعمان، حيث أصبح مديراً لإدارة شمال أفريقيا في الخارجية الفرنسية. 

ويتكلَّم إيمي التركية بطلاقة، وهو ذو خبرة عالية بمجمل سياسات تركيا الداخلية والخارجية، والتاريخ التركي عموماً، وهو ما قد يفسّر أقوال ومواقف الرئيس ماكرون ضد تركيا ومواقفه الشخصية ضد الرئيس إردوغان، إن كان في ليبيا أو قبرص واليونان وشرق الأبيض المتوسط، ودعمه للإسلاميين في أوروبا والعالم، وهو ما يعرفه السفير إيمي جيداً.

أما رئيس الوزراء البريطاني بوريس جونسون، وجَدّه من أصول عثمانية، فلم يتأخّر بدوره في هذا المجال، إذ قام في 30 تموز/يوليو الماضي بتعيين ريتشارد مور رئيساً لاستخبارات بلاده ، وسط اهتمام إعلامي وسياسي تركي كبير بهذا الاختيار، فقد عمل مور، وهو من مواليد طرابلس الغرب، سفيراً لبلاده في ماليزيا وباكستان ذات العلاقة المميزة مع تركيا، قبل أن يتم تعيينه سفيراً لبلاده في أنقرة للفترة الممتدة بين العام 2014 و2017، إذ أقام علاقات واسعة مع المسؤولين الأتراك بعد أن أتقن اللغة التركية. وتوقعت المعلومات الصحافية للعلاقات التركية – البريطانية، وهي مميزة دائماً، خلافاً للعلاقات مع جميع دول الاتحاد الأوروبي، أن تشهد تطوراً مهماً على قاعدة التنسيق والتعاون العسكري والاستخباراتي في عهد ريتشارد مور.

ويعكس اختيار هؤلاء الذين يتكلمون اللغة التركية، ويعتبرون ملمّين بشكل تام بالشأن التركي، الاهتمام الكبير الذي توليه واشنطن ولندن وباريس بالسياسات الحالية والمستقبلية لتركيا، والتي بات واضحاً أنها تعتمد على عنصرين أساسيين مكملين لبعضهما للبعض، وهما المخابرات والجيش، اللذان يعملان في إطار توجيهات الرئيس إردوغان العقائدية، إذ يرافق رئيس المخابرات الوطنية هاكان فيدان الرئيس إردوغان في معظم زياراته الخارجية.

بدورها، تراقب موسكو، وعن كثب، هذه السياسات الإردوغانية، نظراً إلى علاقتها بمجمل الساحات التي تلتقي أو تتعارض فيها مع أنقرة، وأهمها في سوريا وليبيا، ومن خلالها في باقي دول المنطقة، مع تحدي إردوغان للرئيس بوتين في أوكرانيا والقوقاز وآسيا الوسطى، وحتى جمهوريات الحكم الذاتي داخل حدود روسيا الفيدرالية، ويعيش فيها حوالى 25 مليون مسلم، ومعظمهم من أصول تركية.

وقد يكون هذا الاهتمام سبباً للأهمية التي يوليها الرئيس بوتين لمستشاره والمتحدث الرسمي باسمه، ديمتري بيسكوف، الذي تخرَّج من قسم اللغة التركية في موسكو، ثم عمل لفترة طويلة في السفارة الروسية في أنقرة، حيث أصبح ملماً بمجمل تطورات هذا البلد الجار الآن وفي العهد السوفياتي، فقد كانت تركيا خندقاً أمامياً للحلف الأطلسي وأميركا ضد الشيوعية، كما كانت الإمبراطورية الروسية العدو الأكبر للدولة العثمانية، وعلى الأقل حتى ثورة لينين الشيوعية في العام 1917. 

ويعرف الجميع أنه لولا دعم هذه الثورة، لما استطاع أتاتورك أن يحقّق انتصاره على الدول الاستعمارية، وهي فرنسا وبريطانيا، ومعها اليونان وإيطاليا، وهو ما انتهى باتفاقية لوزان للعام 1923، بقيام الجمهورية التركية على أنقاض الإمبراطورية العثمانية، وكأنَّ التاريخ يكرر نفسه دائماً، ولو بأشكال ونماذج أخرى أدت وتؤدي فيها أجهزة المخابرات أدواراً مهمّة قررت وتقرر وستقرر مصير الدول والشعوب، كما هو الحال الآن في الجغرافيا العربية التي رسم خارطتها شاب صغير اسمه لورنس، اشترى ذمم شيوخ القبائل الخليجية الذين ترفَّعوا من الولاء للمستعمر القديم إلى خدمة السيد الجديد “إسرائيل”، ومخابراتها هي الأدرى بكل أسرارهم!

وكما كانت “إسرائيل” على علم بكل أسرار تركيا، ومن خلال أتباع فتح الله جولان في الأمن والمخابرات التركية، والذين كان يتجسَّسون حتى نهاية العام 2013 على اتصالات جميع المسؤولين الأتراك، العسكريون منهم والسياسيون، وفي مقدمتهم إردوغان، الذي قال إنهم كانوا يتجسّسون حتى على غرفة نومه، فيما اتهم الإعلام الموالي لإردوغان جولان وأتباعه، تارة بالعمالة لأميركا، وتارة أخرى لألمانيا، وفي نهاية المطاف، “إسرائيل”، التي باتت على معرفة تامة بكل أسرار الدولة التركية وخفاياها

Russian, Syrian Forces Eliminated Over 300 ISIS Militants In Desert

August 26, 2020

Video Here

South Front

Russian and Syrian forces eliminated 327 ISIS militants during a joint security operation that took place in the desert areas of Homs and Deir Ezzor from August 18 to August 24.

According to the Russian side, strikes of the Syrian Air Force, the Russian Aerospace Forces, field artillery and actions of special forces units in the desert also allowed to eliminate 134 shelters, 17 observation posts, 7 warehouses and 5 underground storage areas belonging to ISIS terrorists.

The operation came in response to a series of successful ISIS attacks on pro-government forces in the Homs-Deir Ezzor desert. One of these attacks, near Deir Ezzor city on August 18, led to the killing of Russian Major-General Vyacheslav Gladkih. Taking into account the numbers provided by the Russian side, the August 18-24 operation likely delivered a powerful blow to ISIS cells hiding in the desert. Nonetheless, it is unlikely that the ISIS threat was fully removed.

As long as areas not controlled by Damascus remain, ISIS will always have a place to hide and restore its forces.

On August 25, a Russian military vehicle was targeted with an RPG along the M4 Highway, during the 25th Turkish-Russian Joint Patrol. No Russian personnel received serious injures. According to photos from the site, a BTR-80’s wheel was damaged during the attack. This became the second attack on a joint Turkish-Russian patrol in southern Idlib in a week. The previous one targeting a Turkish military vehicle took place on August 17.

The regular attacks on Russian-Turkish patrols in southern Idlib reveal that the de-escalation process is not going very well. In fact, al-Qaeda-linked groups still keep a dominant position in the ‘opposition-controlled’ Idlib and have not been separated from their ‘moderate’ allies.

On August 14, Russia even temporarily suspended joint patrols with Turkey in the area due to Ankara’s inability to guarantee the security of patrols and fulfill its obligations under the de-escalation deal. It appeared that the decision had been reversed, as they began again on August 17, however the attacks resumed shortly thereafter.

In these conditions, the continuation of joint patrols by Turkey and Russia apparently puts its forces involved in such actions in danger. If the threat of al-Qaeda-linked radicals is not addressed, militants bolstered by the previous successes will likely increase their attacks on these patrols even further.

Terrorist Attack against a Gas Pipeline Takes out Electricity in all Syria

Gas pipeline explosion - Syria Damascus countryside - terror

August 24, 2020 Arabi Souri

A terrorist attack targeted a main Gas pipeline that resulted in taking out the electricity in all over Syria, the Syrian Minister of Oil and Rich Minerals said.

The massive explosion which targeted the Arabian Gas Pipeline feeding the Der Ali thermal power station disrupted the gas supplies to the station and subsequently all connected substations were off. The towns in northern Damascus countryside, the explosion rocked the region, especially the towns between Adra and Dumair.

“It’s like daytime light throughout the night”, one local said on social media describing the fire that erupted from the explosion that occurred shortly after 1 am local time, as per local sources.

The targeted gas pipeline, a 36 inch wide and with the capacity of 7 million cubic meters of gas, in addition to supplying gas to the thermal station of Der Ali, also supplies gas to the thermal stations of Tishreen and Nassiyria in the southern region of the country which all went out of service.


Extinguishing the fire took all night long and immediate assessment of damages and restoration operations of the pipeline were initiated, electricity is coming back gradually, though slowly to different provinces.

The US embattled war criminal and irresponsible president Trump needs any useful achievement to win his coming elections in foreign policy after failing miserably at all fronts in domestic policies have increased his ‘Maximum Pressure’ attempts against the countries not under the US hegemony, notably Syria and Iran, thus terrorist attacks and Israeli bombing and sabotage against infrastructure in these countries have increased in the past few months. No low limits defined as Trump’s terrorists as well as Trump’s forces operating as US Army illegally in Syria even burned Syrian wheat fields as it neared harvesting.

Some pictures from the site of the explosion

Targeting gas and oil pipelines in the country reminds us with the terrorist attack against the gas pipeline in Baba Amro, Homs, at the beginning of the US-led War of Terror against Syria, the terrorist act was carried out by a CNN crew who falsely accused the Syrian Army with their own evil act but were caught by their own cameras they forgot streaming online throughout the night.

The whole world is running on the very fragile gas and oil pipeline, just like the mercantile ships in the open seas, using these in the US-led War of Terror and intimidation would engulf the entire world in tit for tat attacks that would have unimaginable ramifications on all of humanity, with an unpredictable axis of evil spearheaded by the likes of the regimes of Donald Trump, Erdogan of Turkey who cut off the water supplies for over a million Syrian human being in Hasakah province northeast of Syria for the 3rd week now, and the Israeli Netanyahu, the world is at danger, and every single human being is facing massive dangers of the policies and acts of these lunatic warlords.

Though the Syrian people managed to win against the world’s largest army of terrorists, and their sponsors of the super powerful and super-rich countries, the battle is not over and the Syrian people will definitely not give the likes of Trump and Erdogan in their terrorist attacks what they failed to take in their direct military interventions and investing in their terrorist groups.

US-led War of Terror Against Syria, Attrition Terrorism Phase

https://www.syrianews.cc/us-led-war-of-terror-against-syria-attrition-terrorism-phase/embed/#?secret=oFvhlmViNr

Syria: Oil Pipelines Sabotaged in Tartous Marine Terminal

https://www.syrianews.cc/syria-oil-pipelines-sabotaged-in-tartous-marine-terminal/embed/#?secret=cG1UoaXDCi

UNSC Approves Extending Al-Qaeda Border Crossing to Idlib for One Year

https://www.syrianews.cc/unsc-approves-extending-a-border-crossing-into-idlib-for-one-year/embed/#?secret=vEraAbwZ7A

Unknown Soldiers of the Syrian Electricity Army Restore Two More Stations

PROTESTS AGAINST TURKISH-BACKED MILITANTS BROKE OUT IN SYRIA’S RAS AL-AIN (VIDEOS)

South Front

22.08.2020

The Turkish-occupied town of Ras al-Ain and its countryside in northern al-Hasakah had been witnessing a series of protests, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported on August 22.

Tribal leaders and prominent figures are reportedly participating in the protests against Turkish-backed militants, who have been wreaking havoc in the town since occupying in October of last year.

The locals are supporting Ras al-Ain’s local council, which suspended its work to protest against the new management of the town’s border cursing with Turkey.

Turkish authorities appointed Ahmad Bulat, brother of Saif Abu Baker leader of the Hamza Division, as the manager of the border crossing a few day ago. The appointment was seen as an insult to the locals, since Bulat is just a militant from northern Aleppo.

Heavy clashes broke out in Ras al-Ain on August 20 between local fighters supporting the local council and tribesmen allied to the Hamza Division.

Turkey is trying to state its dominance over Ras al-Ain by installing loyal militants in key posts, while ignoring the town’s locals.

The situation will likely escalate further if Turkey refuse to fulfill the demands of Ras al-Ain’s local council which wants a local civilian to be appointed as the manager of the border crossing. The protesters are also demanding the removal of the Hamza Division from their town.

MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

IRAN AND HEZBOLLAH SET UP NEW FORCE TO KNOCK OUT ISRAELI FORCES IN GOLAN HEIGHTS

South Front

 13.08.2020 

Iran,  the 220 Branch of the Syrian Military Intelligence Directorate and Hezbollah are together  establishing a new force to monitor the situation on the contact line with Israeli forces near the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, local sources claim.

According to reports, the new force will be mostly made up of personnel of the Syrian Army and local fighters from the Golan Regiment armed group. Mamoun Jridah and Hazem Kabul, two local figures who are close to Hezbollah, are reportedly recruiting fighters to this new force. At least 175 fighters have signed up, so far. The force will also be tasked with contributing security efforts in the area and preventing Israeli sabotage activities there.

Despite the attempts of Israel to deter Iranian influence in central and southern Syria, Iran, Hezbollah and Iranian-backed groups maintain a significant presence in the southern Syrian provinces. Over the past weeks, the situation has become especially dangerous following the destabilization of Lebanon, the Israeli military buildup on the contact lines with Lebanon and Syria, and the increased number of incidents between Israeli and Iranian-backed forces.

If the regional situation continues escalating, it’s easy to expect that the southern part of Syria and southern Lebanon will become the hot points of the confrontation between Israel and the Hezbollah-Iran bloc.

Late on August 12, the Turkish military and its proxies in northeast Syria launched several small-scale attacks on positions of the Syrian Army and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in al-Hasakah and Raqqa provinces. Turkish forces clashed with army troops near the towns of al-Qasmiyah and al-Rashidiyah, and with the SDF near the town of Kur Hasan. Turkish forces also shelled the Ain Issa refugee camp in northern Raqqa. Fire erupted in several farmlands bordering the camp. There are no confirmed reports of casualties resulting from this series of incidents.

Since late June, Turkish forces have increased the number of artillery strike and tactical attacks on the Syrian Army and the SDF in northeastern Syria. These ceasefire violations go contrary to the agreements reached by Ankara with the US and Russia. Some sources even speculate that the Erdogan government is preparing for a resumption of full-scale military operation in the northeast.

ISIS ambushed a convoy of Liwa al-Quds, a pro-government Palestinian militia, near the town of al-Tabni in southern Deir Ezzor. After this, terrorists also detonated several explosive devices in the path of reinforcements from the 4th Armoured Division as it deployed to the area. A truck and a SUV of pro-government forces were destroyed in the attacks. Depending on the sources, from 1 to 3 pro-government fighters died. ISIS always intensifies their attacks on government forces during an increase of tensions between Turkey and the US-Israeli alliance.

President Assad: Elections are Historic Station Written by Our People Through Their Electoral Pens and Their Will

Source

Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on 

President Al-Assad before the members of the People’s Assembly: The elections are a historical station, the details of which have been written by our people by the voters ’stances, their will and their defiance, and affirming their determination to adhere to the constitutional requirements.

12 August، 2020
Damascus, SANA

President Bashar al-Assad said on Wednesday that the people’s Assembly elections are a historic stage of the war phases that our people wrote their details through their electoral pens and their will.

President al-Assad added in a speech to members of the People’s Assembly’s third legislative term that today’s meeting was supposed to be held under the dome of the People’s Assembly as usual, but in light of the measures taken to confront the coronavirus, the session was held at the People’s Palace.

The President added that the elections you lately run were different, thus, in spite of coronavirus epidemic and its effect in the abstention of some people to take part in, there were multiplicity in the lists and a true competition, and this competition is a patriotic movement and any national movement is positive because it reflects the patriotic commitment.

The President added “We heard a lot of criticism about the people’s Assembly’s elections, and part of that might be true, but the most important positive side is to see our problems in a true manner.

President al-Assad added ‘We have to put into consideration that the victory in the war is not only by carrying it out military, economically or morally, but it also needs preparing for it through planning and organizing it.

“Regarding the organizing and the administrative side, it depends on right legislations which are the core of your Assembly’s work… It depends on the right legislations that organize the relation between the state’s institutions and between the citizens and establishments which create the justice and equal opportunities, thus they boost the national belonging to Homeland” President al-Assad added.

He added that the successful plans set off from strategic visions and your council has a central role in dialogue and it is an important bridge between the citizens and the Executive Authority.

The President affirmed that the war will not prevent us from assuming our duties, and the power of peoples is in adaptation with the conditions and subjugating them for their interests.

President al-Assad added “any defect in the legislations affects the institutions , weakens the citizen’s confidence, and weakens the morals and destabilizes the situation ..and both of the morals and stability are the core of the aggression on Syria and at the same time they are the core of defending it, especially that this war, which is not traditional from the military side through bringing in hundreds of thousands of terrorists from other areas of the world, depended on the psychological side that aimed at destroying morals , self-defeat and later the free surrender.”

President al-Assad added that Caesar Act is not a separate state of what had come of the blockade stages that have caused a big damage to the Syrian people.

The president added that the “act” has some additional harm and there is a lot of psychological warfare in it.

President al-Assad went on to say that through the general context of war, whenever terrorists fail in their missions, there are an escalation, one time they go to the Security Council, another time they escalating in the chemical issue or they bomb our forces, and after the liberation of the west of Aleppo and the south of Idleb, the title was economic aggression to weaken the achievements of our forces’ victories, making them pale and without meaning for the Syrian people.

“The question about why the last Israeli strikes in Al-Badya and the surrounding areas coincided with the issuance of the act, the answer is that because they came to facilitate the movement of Daesh as their cells are positioned in Al-Badya region and its surroundings and they are not sleeping cells, they are active ones , and this is another aspect of “ Caesar Act, “ so it is not only an act to impose economic sanctions, but it isalso a new stage of the escalation “ the president added.

The other side is to motivate the terrorists, throughout the past years, terrorists have lost trust in their leadership and began to hand over the weapons and began to change their positions and lost hope to achieve something.

“The US needs terrorists in the region, on top, Daesh, and it wanted from Caesar Act to express its support to the terrorists,” the President said.

He added that the Israeli aggressions on Deir Ezzor came to facilitate the movement of Daesh terrorists.

President al-Assad said that responding to the blockade will be through production and self-dependence.

The President said that we have to think about what could secure the livelihood of the citizen and distance him from poverty and we have to boost hope and work because without them there is no meaning for life.

President al-Assad added that we have to remember that our standing by the army was the reason behind all its achievements and our support to the Syrian Pound will be the reason for its power.

The President affirmed that unlike what some people think, the circumstance now is appropriate to inject money, adding that the foreign capital is coward but the national one must not be so, otherwise the homeland will lose.

“We have to concentrate on supporting the micro-investments as they are able to support the national economy and face blockade …the agricultural sector is the pillar of the national economy and it has to be supported,” the President added.

As for the factors that affect the Syrian pound, the President said they are known; the direct effect of the war that lead to slow down the economy by the destruction of infrastructure and a dramatic decline in investment, also the blockade that has prevented the import of essential necessary materials for the production process.

As for the measures applied by the institutions, the President affirmed that they aim at fixing the exchange price. But fixing the price or returning it to the best situation, this needs everyone’s cooperation because the Syrian pound is in everyone’s hands, not Justin the hands of institutions, and we have to the Syrian pound instead of abandoning it for the interest of other currencies.

He went on to say that deterrence is the last mean in combating corruption, adding “we are persistent in restoring the stolen public funds through the legal ways and institutions.

President aL-Assad said that” urgent reforms in agricultural sector are able to give swift and wide results more than any other sectors.

He added “we are in the heart of war and we are talking about the liberation of different lands and regions ,however, the return of state authority will be through the return of the rule of law, and not only the liberation of the lands, because Law and corruption cannot meet in one place.

“Homeland can’t withstand while it’s being snapped by terrorists and looted by corrupters,” the President said.

The president reaffirmed that Golan remains in the heart of every honest Syrian, its status won’t be changed by the annexation decision of the government of a Zionist entity or an immoral US regime, and our right to regain it is inseparable from our right to liberate all our lands from terrorism.

The President said that we have to think about what could secure the livelihood of the citizen and distance him from poverty and we have to boost hope and work because without them there is no meaning for life.

He added that there is no difference between a local or imported terrorist, a Zionist soldier, Turkish or American one, all of them are enemies on our territory.

Bushra Dabin/Baraa Ali/Mazen Eyon

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جيش سوريّ وطنيّ بتداعيات إقليميّة

د.وفيق إبراهيم

وحيدٌ بين الجيوش العربية في الشرق يدافع عن شعبه ودولته منذ عقد تقريباً بإرادة حديديّة مواصلاً حرباً مفتوحة في وجه الأميركيين والأتراك والإسرائيليين وبعض القوى الأوروبية محجماً المشروع الكردي ومئات التنظيمات الإرهابية المدعومة من الخليج.

هذا هو الجيش السوريّ الذي يحتفل بعيد تأسيسه الخامس والسبعين وسط حرب مفتوحة عليه لها بعدان، الأول محاولات تفتيته بذرائع مناطقية واخوانية وطائفية ورشى مالية ضخمة والثانية كسره في الميدان بفتح عشرات المعارك عليه في آن معاً لبعثرة قواه. فلا هذه أفلحت ولا تلك نجحت.. ولا يألو الجيش العربي السوري بعديده الذي ينيف عن ثلاث مئة الف جندي، من دون احتساب ألوية الردفاء والأنصار يجول في ميادين سورية من حدودها السورية مع الجولان المحتل والأردنية والعراقية والتركية، ولا ينسى حدوده مع لبنان لضبط حركة الإرهاب والتهريب.

كيف صمد الجيش السوري هذه المدة الطويلة متمكناً من تحرير سبعين بالمئة من بلاده، ومحافظاً على تماسكه؟

الإعداد الوطني المدروس لهذا الجيش، ادى الى تماسكه العسكري في وحداته وألويته بعقيدة قتال راسخة تقوم على حماية الدولة بما تشكله من شعب ومؤسسات وتاريخ يزهو على كل دول الإقليم.

هذا الشعور بالانتماء عميق لدى الجندي السوري الذي يتعلم في المؤسسات العسكرية انه يحارب دفاعاً عن أهله وشعبه وآلاف السنوات من عمر سورية.

قد يكون هذا الجانب مطلوباً، لكنه يتعلم أيضاً انه يدافع عن الشرق بأسره عندما يدافع عن ميادين بلاده.

هناك من المتخاذلين السوريين والعرب من يعزو انتصارات الجيش لتحالفاته الإقليمية والدولية، فيرد عليها إعلام أجنبي مؤكداً لها ان هذه التحالفات اتت الى سورية بطلب من دولتها ولوجود تقاطعات في المصالح تتعلق برهبتها من خسارة الدولة السورية وهذا معناه انتشار الإرهاب في بلادها.. ألم يقل الرئيس الروسي بوتين بأنه قاتل في سورية لكي لا يجد نفسه مضطراً لمحاربة الإرهاب في موسكو… وكذلك إيران التي تعرف أن هزيمة المشروع الاميركي ـ الخليجي ـ التركي ـ الإرهابي في سورية، يؤدي الى تخفيف الهجمات على إيران نفسها.

يتبين ان ادوار الجيش السوري متنوّعة لتنوع أهمية سورية في الشرق والإقليم، فضلاً عن مؤسسة الجيش نفسها التي تدرب أفرادها على اساس الانتماء للشعب والدولة.

داخلياً، قاوم الجيش إغراءات مالية من دول الخليج، شملت الأفراد والضباط والقادة بالمباشر حيناً وعبر أصحابهم حيناً آخر وبواسطة أصدقائهم وقرارهم وبلداتهم والمبالغ المعروضة تشكل ثروة وتصل مع القادة العسكريين الى ملايين الدولارات، مروراً بخمسين ألف دولار للجنود العاديين.

إلا أن هذه المحاولات عجزت عن اختراق الأسوار الوطنية العالية للجيش السوري، ولم يتأثر إلا نفر قليل لا يزيد عن ألفين او أقل، لم ينجح مشغلوهم ببناء تنظيم عسكري خاص بهم.. مكتفين ببعض الاعلانات التهريجية لصور عسكريين فارين اصبحوا عمالاً في الخليج وتركيا والمانيا، مخترعين صوراً لمدنيين، جرى إلباسهم ازياء عسكرية مع محاولات تمويهية لإخفاء وجوههم للزوم تمرير الاخبار الكاذبة.

هناك أربعة انواع من التداعيات انجزها الجيش العربي السوري في قتاله المستمر منذ نحو عقد:

الأول هو دفاعه ونجاحه بالحفاظ على وحدة سورية بتحريره معظم مناطقها وبشكل أجهض فيه أي إمكانية لتقسيم او كنتنة ناجحين، فحتى المناطق التي يسيطر عليها أكراد «قسد» في شمال شرقي سورية، لا تستطيع بناء دولة عليها، لافتقارها الى سواحل وطرقات متصلة بخارج متصالح معها وبعثرة مناطقها السوري ورفضها من قبل السكان السوريين من غير الأكراد الذين يشكلون الغالبية فيها، اما المناطق الداخلية فمستقرة في اطار الإيمان الكامل بالاندماج الوطني الداخلي.

لجهة الدور الثاني، فإن ضرب الجيش السوري للإرهاب في بلاده، أفشل حركته بالتموضع والانتشار في لبنان، معطلاً نموه في الأردن، ومحطماً بناه الممتدة الى العراق.

كما منع الإخوان المسلمين المتحالفين مع الأتراك من التموضع في أجزاء من سورية، مجهضاً إمكانية تحرّكها بحرية نحو الجوار المباشر لسورية.

كذلك فإن الجيش السوري دافع بقتاله للإرهاب في سورية عن الأردنيين انفسهم مبعثراً حركته نحو مدنهم وقراهم، علماً أن المملكة الهاشمية رعت في بدايات الحرب السورية، انطلاق الإرهاب نحو سورية وحمته وحاولت التقدم بواسطته نحو درعا عاصمة حوران، وهكذا يحافظ الجيش السوري على وحدة الأردن الذي شاركت دولته في محاولات تدمير سورية.

كذلك فإن لجم الإرهاب في سورية أسهم بإضعافه في العراق وإفساح المجال امام الجيش والحشد الشعبي فيه لتفكيك أوصال اقوى منظمات ارهابية كانت على وشك السيطرة على بغداد نفسها.

فيكون الجيش السوري بعمليات ضربه للارهاب اوقف من نموه في كامل الشرق لأنه حلقة متصلة، كانت تأمل بالسيطرة على سورية لتأمين حريات حركة واسعة لها في الإقليم.

ودول الخليج والأردن التي دعمت الارهاب هي في طليعة المستفيدين من تدمير الجيش السوري للإرهاب في سورية.

هذا ما جعل بوتين يعترف بدور سورية في منع الإرهاب من الانتقال الى مجمل الدول في العالم، ومنها روسيا، الأمر الذي يدعو الى مدى خطورة الرئيس التركي اردوغان الذي استثمر في الارهاب مهدداً بالسماح لمئات الآلاف من النازحين السوريين ومن بينهم ارهابيون الى اوروبا، وعندها بدأ الاتحاد الاوروبي يخصص مساعدات لتركيا كي تعيل بها النازحين فسرقتها وأعادت تنظيم الارهاب التركماني والاخواني بها.

بذلك يتضح دور الجيش السوري وطنياً واقليمياً وعالمياً في مكافحة الارهاب المعولم واجهاض حركته الدولية من جهة ووظيفته في تدمير الدولة السورية من جهة ثانية.

ألا يستحق هذا الجيش وساماً عالمياً على مثل هذا الدور الصانع للاستقرار في سورية والعالم؟ لذلك فإن هذا الجيش الذي يشكل مؤسسة طليعية من مؤسسات الدولة السورية، مثابر على تحقيق دور وطني يؤمن له وليس كمجرد وظيفة، إنه دور الدفاع عن سورية قلب الشرق، وبالتالي عن كامل الإقليم مسهماً في آن معاً في دعم الاستقرار العالمي.

خرافة تحييد لبنان!


طلال سلمان.


لبنان الآن على كف عفريت… تحييد البلد المفلس والمتزاحم ابناؤه على السفارات بطلب “الفيزا” للخروج منه في زمن انتهى فيه معسكر عدم الانحياز.

مع وصول السفيرة الاميركية الجديدة في لبنان، دوروثي شيا، وهجومها المباشر (والخارج على الاصول الدبلوماسية وركائز العلاقات بين الدول الصديقة) على “حزب الله”، محرر الجنوب من الاحتلال الاسرائيلي، وصاحب كتلة نيابية وازنة وجماهير عريضة في معظم انحاء لبنان.. هبت رياح الدعوة إلى تحييد لبنان عن المنازعات والصراع في المنطقة.

تحييد البلد المفلس والمتزاحم ابناؤه على السفارات بطلب “الفيزا” للخروج منه، في زمن انتهى معسكر عدم الانحياز بقيادة جواهر لآل نهرو وجمال عبد الناصر وتيتو الذي حفظ وحدة يوغسلافيا. فما أن غاب حتى عادت دولا شتى لا قيمة لها في اوروبا ولا دور لها في العالم كالذي ابتدعه لها تيتو.

تتبع “الدولة” سياسة انكار ما لا يمكن انكاره” فالجوع اصدق إنباء من الكتب”، ومن حسان دياب ومناورات جبران باسيل وسط الإغفاءات المتقطعة لفخامة رئيس الجمهورية، كلها تشهد بأن لبنان بخير..

وماذا اذا استفقنا على سوريا مدمرة أو محتلة، شمالها للأتراك، بذريعة مقاتلة الاكراد، والساحل- طرطوس- اللاذقية – بانياس- للروس مع دوريات مؤللة تلاقي الاتراك بود ظاهر، اما قلبها – دمشق وضواحيها – فللحرس الثوري الايراني مع مقاتلي “حزب الله”.

كذلك فان العراق الذي بالكاد انتهى ترميمه بعد حروب صدام حسين التي دمرت أرض الرافدين، وجعلت الخزينة العراقية خاوية الا ما يلزم كشرهات لمن يتولى الحكم، وبقرب بغداد قوات اميركية، وفي أنحاء شتى قوات من الحرس الثوري الايراني، والكرد ما زالوا يطالبون بنصيبهم في الحكم بعد نيلهم رئاسة الدولة وعدد وافر من الوزارات، مع مناصب رفيعة في مؤسسات النفط الخ.. كل هذا من دون أن يتنازلوا عن مطلبهم بإقامة دولة كردستان المستقلة في شمالي العراق، حتى والجيوش التركية تقتحم تلك المناطق بذريعة مطاردة الاكراد الاتراك المقهورين في ظل السلطان اردوغان.

المهم أن النشيد الوطني الجديد الذي انطلق من الديمان وتولى الترويج له بضعة من السياسيين من ذوي الانتماء “المحايد” أخذوا يرددون نغمة “الحياد” بديلاً من النشيد الوطني.

الحياد بين من ومن؟

بين الاتحاد السوفياتي ومعسكره الاشتراكي الذي سقط بالضربة البوتينية القاضية؟ أم بين دولة الامارات وقطر العظمى؟ أم بين السعودية المذهبة واليمن الذي يموت أهله جوعاً..هذا إذا هم نجوا من رصاص الاخوة – الاعداء من ابطال الاحتلال السعودي – الاماراتي! أم بين الغزو التركي بقيادة السلطان الذي أقحم المعلم التاريخي الذي كان كنيسة آيا صوفيا، في الماضي وغداة نشوء السلطنة، وقرر تحويله إلى مسجد، متنكرا للتاريخ وحتى لأصول الصلاة عند المسلمين، اذ دخل الكنيسة التي صيرت مسجداً، بحذائه خلافاً لقواعد الصلاة.

أما مصر فمشغولة بهموم سد النهضة في الحبشة، خوفاً على السد العالي الذي انقذ المئة مليون مصري من العطش، والذي افتتحه الرئيس الراحل جمال عبد الناصر مع خروتشوف، اظرف رئيس عرفته موسكو، والذي خلع نعليه ليطرق بهما على منصة وفده في الامم المتحدة، حين بدأ الرئيس الاميركي خطابه.. وكان ذلك تعبيراً عن موقف الاتحاد السوفياتي من مشروع الغزو الاميركي لدولة فيديل كاسترو في كوبا.. وهي الجلسة التي حضرها معظم اقطاب دول عدم الانحياز: جواهر لال نهرو، وجمال عبد الناصر وتيتو، في حين كان الوفد الاميركي برئاسة جون كيندي.

يومها، كما يحب الاميركي أن ينسى، ترك كاسترو مبنى الأمم المتحدة في نيويورك ونزل ليجول في أحياء “السود”، الذين كانوا يحاولون الانتفاض ضد الظلم الاسود في البيت الابيض في واشنطن… وهو الظلم الذي تجلى مؤخراً في قتل جورج فلويد بحذاء بعض رجال الحرس، بينما صار البيت الابيض مقراً للمهووسين بقيادة دونالد ترامب، الداعم الاخطر للمشروع الصهيوني الذي يعمل على انجازه رئيس الحكومة الاسرائيلية المشتركة بين نتنياهو ومعارضيه، والذي – يشمل في ما يشمل – منطقة الاغوار التي تحفظ تلالها اجداث بعض ابطال فتح دمشق ومنهم ابو عبيدة الجراح.

يا أمة ضحكت من جهلها الامم…

لبنان الآن على كف عفريت. وسوريا تتمزق أمام عيون الاخوة العرب، والروس والاتراك والايرانيون يتقاسمن اراضيها، والرئيس الروسي بوتين يستقبل الرئيس السوري بشار الاسد في مقر السفارة الروسية في دمشق، ممتنعا عن الصعود للقائه في القصر الجمهوري على بعض الروابي التي غناها امير الشعراء احمد شوقي بقوله:

قُمْ نَاجِ جِلَّقَ وانْشُدْ رَسْـمَ مَنْ بَانُوامَشَتْ عَلَى الرّسْمِ أَحْدَاثٌ وَأَزْمَانُ
هَذا الأَديـمُ كِتابٌ لا انْكِفَـاءَ لَـهُرَثُّ الصَّحَائِفِ، بَاقٍ مِنْهُ عُـنْوانُ
بَنُـو أُمَـيَّـةَ للأنْبَـاءِ مَا فَتَحُـواوَللأحَـادِيثِ مَا سَـادُوا وَمَا دَانُوا
كَـانوا مُلُوكاً، سَرِيرُ الشّرقِ تَحْتَهُمُفَهَلْ سَأَلْتَ سَريرَ الغَرْبِ مَا كَانُوا؟

TURKEY’S POISONOUS HAND OF FRIENDSHIP

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Turkey's Poisonous Hand Of Friendship

While the situation in Libya continues to escalate and the parties are preparing for a decisive battle for Sirte, Turkey, which actively supports forces of the Government of National Accord (GNA), is negotiating with its strategic partners. On July 10, National Defense Minister Hulusi Akar went on an official visit to Kiev, the capital of Ukraine. During the visit, Akar checked the work of the diplomatic mission, had dinner with representatives of national minorities, namely Crimean Tatars and Meskhetian Turks, with Ukrainian businessmen and the head of the Special Monitoring Mission of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). Taking into account the high tension of the situation in Libya, the defense minister’s dinner in Kiev was of great importance for the Turkish side.

According to Ukrainian Minister of Defense Andrei Taran, during the talks with Akar, they discussed ways to deepen cooperation in the defense sphere.

“The cooperation of defense companies of Ukraine and Turkey is of particular. The reached agreements will strengthen the defense potential of Ukraine. The potential and maneuverability of the Ukrainian army will significantly increase, what will contribute to the protection of peace in the region,” Taran said.

It cannot be excluded that one of the goals of the visit was to demonstrate to Kiev that Turkey favors provocative actions against Russia. Instability in the East of Ukraine or new provocations in Crimea are in Turkey’s interest at the moment. They allow to weak Russia’s position in the negotiation process on Libya at the very moment when GNA fores, supported by Turkey, are actively preparing for military action on the territory of their country.

In recent days, Kiev has become noticeably more active and has been pursuing a policy of discrediting Russia in all possible directions.

In the East of Ukraine the most recent incident happened on July 14 when 2 Ukrainian fighters died and another one received injures in a failed attempt to enter the territory controlled by self-defense forces of the Donetsk People’s Republic near the village of Zaitsevo. The sabotage and reconnaissance unit tried to attack positions of DPR forces but blew up on landmines in the area.

The Ukrainian side announced that one of the dead soldiers was a military medic, Mikola Ilin, who turned out to be a citizen of Estonia. His death was captured on video.

Foreign Minister of Ukraine, Dmitry Kuleba, called the murder of a medic an act of barbarism.

“I want to make it very clear that from a legal point of view, this murder has signs of a war crime, and from a moral point of view, it is nothing else but an act of barbarism,” Kuleba said.

He stressed that the diplomats will try to make the incident public.

“I will personally raise this issue. The response will be as tough as possible. We will attract all our partners. This situation will be made public,” the foreign minister said.

The death of Ilin led to the desired result, which was required by the Ukrainian authorities. The case was widely publicized. The accusations were immediately joined by the US Embassy, which previously rarely commented on the deaths of Ukrainian soldiers in the Donbass.

The European Union called the murder of a military medic a violation of the Minsk agreements, the agreements of the Normandy summit and international law.

Member of European Parliament, Michael Galer, blamed the Kremlin for the incident in eastern Ukraine on Twitter.

Besides the growing tension in the East of the country, Ukraine is increasingly speculating about Russia’s supposed intentions to conduct offensive operations in the South, which could be a response to the blocking of water supply to Crimea from Ukraine through the North Crimean channel. Water in Crimea is really critically scarce, but to solve this problem, Russia is completing the construction of a water pipeline, and is not preparing to seize the southern territories of Ukraine.

Despite the improbability of rumors about upcoming Russian attacks, on July 13, the head of the Kherson region (southern Ukraine), Yuri Gusev, appealed to the National Security Council to increase the number of military personnel in the region. Gusev also assured that Ukrainian military exercises will be held in autumn together with the Estonian military. However, the exact date of the exercise is unknown and depends on the conduct of large-scale military exercises of the Russian Armed Forces – “Caucasus – 2020”.

It is obvious that at the moment there are no signals that Russia is preparing for an offensive operation on the territory of Ukraine. Russia is currently experiencing quite acute domestic political problems, which the Putin administration is coping with worse. These include mass demonstrations in the city of Khabarovsk in the Far East and the introduction of constitutional amendments. Russian military forces are already involved in Syria, Moscow is actively participating in the negotiation process on the conflict in Libya, and the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is escalating near its borders. For a number of internal and foreign policy reasons, Russia is currently unable to deploy a major military force in new theater of operations. Thus, there is no real threat to Ukraine, but there are more and more rumors and information noise created in order to discredit Russia.

Turkey's Poisonous Hand Of Friendship

The tactical Turkish support pushes Kiev to continue its provocations against Russia. In the current situation, Erdogan has a number of levers to promote its own interests through Kiev.

Turkey and Ukraine are far from being equal partners. This fact is confirmed by the indicators of bilateral trade. Ukraine is much more interested in the Turkish market than vice versa. Ukraine is on the 27th place in the ranking of import countries to Turkey, while Turkey is one of the main importers of Ukraine.

Since 2012, Ukraine and Turkey have been negotiating the free trade zone agreement, but the document has not yet been signed. Economists note that the parties cannot agree on the terms of access for both industrial goods and agricultural products to each other’s markets.

Vladimir Volya, an expert at the Ukrainian Institute of policy analysis and management, claimed that it was difficult for Ukraine to defend its interests in negotiations with Turkey, because “Turkey is the 17th largest economy in the world and the 6th largest in Europe”.

While the economic dimension is certainly important in Turkish-Ukrainian relations, the main tone of interaction between the two countries is set by the political dimension.

As part of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, Kiev has special hopes for Ankara’s support. First of all, on the issue of Crimean peninsula. Turkey does not recognize Crimea as part of Russia, to a large extent it is connected with the Crimean Tatar population, which is presented by Kiev as allegedly oppressed by Russia. The policy of protectionism gave Turkey a broad influence on the peninsula until 2014. Before Crimea became part of Russia, the Turkish-backed Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people had notable political power in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. Also, thanks to Turkey, various extremist religious organizations, such as Hizb ut-Tahrir al-Islami, felt blessed on the peninsula. Today Mejlis is banned in Russia and has been replaced by other representative organizations, and the cells of the terrorist organization Hizb ut-Tahrir al-Islami are consistently eliminated on the territory of Crimea. However, various sources indicate that there is still an extensive network of agents of the Turkish special services among the Crimean Tatars. Ankar still cherishes hopes

The important sphere is cooperation in the defense sphere. Recently, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF), Colonel-General Ruslan Khomchak, announced that the Ukrainian Armed Forces troops deployed in Eastern Ukraine will be equipped with Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 UAVs. State-controlled Ukrainian company UkrSpetsExport and private Turkish UAV specialist Baykar Makina signed a $69 million strategic cooperation agreement. Baykar Makina company is the most prominent of new Turkish drone makers penetrating the domestic and foreign markets.

“Turkish-Ukrainian defense cooperation will potentially go beyond drone systems,” the Ankara-based expert forecast. “Promising businesses could be armored vehicle modifications and, most notably, the Altay.”

While only a few European countries have agreed to supply weapons to Ukraine, Kiev is increasingly dependent on US and Turkish military assistance.

The Ukrainian State Company Ukrspetsexport in December 2019 exported to the Turkish company K.B.A.T. Ithalat Ihracat Mumessillik Ve Danismanlik Ticaret Ltd. the first batch of military goods under a contract for the supply of two S-125M1 Neva-M1 anti-aircraft missile systems totaling $30 million. They were  subsequently delivered to the Government of National Accord in Libya.

Turkey's Poisonous Hand Of Friendship

Apparently, in the conflict in Libya, Ukraine supports Turkey not only by supplying anti-aircraft missile systems. Shortly after Akar’s visit to Kiev, two ships left the Ukrainian ports of Nikolaev and Berdyansk in the direction of Libya. Perhaps Erdogan became more cautious after the French Ministry of Armed Forces accused the Turkish Navy of harassing an arm embargo on Libya.

Ukraine, in turn, is important for Turkey as a tool of maintaining influence in the Black Sea region and for balancing its own interests in relations with Russia. While relations between Turkey and its NATO partners have being deteriorating, and it cannot count on the military support of European countries in the Libyan conflict, Erdogan can rely on Ukraine, which has also been “betrayed” by NATO countries, because despite the protracted negotiation process and long-term promises, NATO is in no hurry to accept Ukraine into its structures.

Ukraine is not the only country of the former Soviet Union where Turkey is pursuing an active policy in order to promote its interests and weaken its ‘strategic partner’, Russia. Recently there has been an escalation of the conflict on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. The moment of escalation is chosen perfectly. The current political leadership of Armenia has done everything possible to turn the Kremlin against itself. Yerevan has provided its territory and created a favorable political regime for the deployment of Western non-state companies whose goal is the destruction of Russia as a state. These organizations are backed by Western Democrats or the Brussels bureaucracy. As a partner of Russia, Armenia did not recognize the annexation of Crimea. And the President of Armenia, Pashinyan and his entourage have consistently given signals of following a Pro-Western policy. Today, the only state that can ensure the existence of Armenia as a state is Russia, but Pashinyan is doing everything possible to break their ties.

Turkey pursues a policy of incitement among partner countries. It is seen is not only by groundless provocations in Ukraine, but also in the unleashed conflict on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border. While Russia does not hurrying to openly support any of the sides, Erdogan accused Armenia of starting the conflict and expressed support for Azerbaijan.

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Iraqi PMF leader: Operations on US forces to escalate day by day

Iraqi PMF leader: Operations on US forces to escalate day by day

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Deputy Secretary General of the Al-Nujaba Movement, a faction of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), says that ‘resistance operations against U.S. occupation forces in Iraq will escalate day by day’.

In an interview with Al Mayadeen TV, Nasr al-Shimmari added that the country’s ‘resistance forces’ had previously given time for dialogue in order for American forces to leave Iraq, however, it was clear that the ‘US only understands the language of force’.

Source: Al-Alam TV (citing from Al Mayadeen TV)

Date: 16 July, 2020

(Important note: Please help us keep producing independent translations for you by contributing as little as $1/month here)

Transcript:

Iraq: Nasr al-Shimmari, Deputy Secretary General of the Al-Nujaba Movement:

– the Americans cannot change the equations in Iraq

– the Americans have no choice but to withdraw from Iraq or stay and endure the losses that will be inflicted on their forces

– we bless the operations targeting the Americans and the resistance is devising the appropriate methods that will force them to leave

–  the U.S. forces in Iraq are occupying forces and targeting them by the resistance will escalate day by day

– the operations of the resistance are characterized by secrecy, and there is a unified decision among the resistance forces (factions) to confront the American forces

– the government is an executive – and not a legislative – entity, and (thus) cannot prevent the resistance from targeting the American (forces)

– Iran is a friend of all the resistance forces, but the main (side) concerned with confronting the American obstinacy in Iraq are the Iraqis (themselves)

– Washington did not take the initiative to help Iraq confront ISIS by using the pretext that this is was an ‘internal matter’ and not an external attack

– the Americans and the British want to put their (military) forces in areas (of Iraq) where they think the resistance will not (be able to) target them

– Turkish forces invaded Iraqi territory and bombed positions in Iraq and we did not see any American action (in response)

– Neither the prime minister nor the government has the authority to bring foreign troops to Iraq, especially after the parliament’s decision

– We hope that the actions of Al-Kadhimi and his government will be in the interest of Iraq, and we affirm that the future of the country depends on (it attaining its) freedom

– The Americans only understand the language of force and resistance is the only weapon capable of getting them out of Iraq

– resistance had given way for (the path) of dialogue and the implementation of the parliament’s decision for U.S. forces to leave (but that failed)

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There Is a Dark and Dangerous Forest Behind These Burning Trees…

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 • JULY 14, 2020


Roughly half-way through the year 2020 it is becoming pretty obvious that there are a number of major developments which almost got our total attention, and for good reason, as these are tectonic shifts which truly qualify as “catastrophe” (under the definition “a violent and sudden change in a feature of the earth“). These are:
  • The initiation of the global collapse of the AngloZionist Empire.
  • The immense economic bubble whose ever-growing size is the best predictor of the magnitude of the huge burst it will inevitably result in.
  • The implosion of the US society due to a combination of several and profound systemic crises (economic collapse, racial tensions, mass poverty, alienation of the masses, absence of social protections, etc.).
  • The COVID-19 (aka “it’s just like the seasonal flu!!“) pandemic which only exacerbates all the other major factors listed above.
  • Last, but not least, it is hard to imagine what the next US Presidential election will look like, but one thing is certain: by November we will already have a perfect storm – the election will only act like a battery which will feed even more energy into this already perfect storm.
To be sure, these are truly momentous, historical, developments whose importance cannot be over-stated. They are, however, not the only very serious developments. There are, in fact, several areas of serious political tensions which could also result in a major explosion, albeit a regional one “only”!
I will list just a few, beginning with the most visible one:

Turkey

Erdogan is up to no good. Again. What a big surprise, right? Every time I hear somebody writing something about Erdogan the dreaming of becoming the sultan of a new Ottoman Empire, I tend to roll my eyes as this is a cliche. Yet, there is no denial that this cliche is true – the neo-Ottoman ideology is definitely alive and well in Turkey and Erdogan clearly wants to “ride that horse”. So let’s list some of the things which the Turks have been up to:
  1. Syria: The Turks have clearly been dragging their feet in northern Syria where, at least according to the deal Erdogan made with Putin, the “bad terrorists” should have left a long time ago and the key highway should have been under the joint protection of the Russian and Turkish forces. Well, Turkey did some of this, but not all, and the “bad terrorists” are still very much present in northern Syria. In fact, they recently tried to attack the Russian Aerospace Forces base in Khmeimim (they failed, but that is still something which the Turks have to answer for since the attack came from a zone they control). Protecting terrorists in exchange for promises of immunity from their attacks has been tried many times in the past and it has never worked – sooner or later the terrorist groups always slip out of the control of their masters and even turn against them. This is now happening to Turkey.
  2. Libya: The Turks are also deeply involved in the Libyan civil war. In fact, “deeply involved” does not give enough credit to the Turkish military which used Turkish-made drones with devastating effectiveness against the forces of Field Marshal Khalifa Belqasim Haftar, the commander of the Tobruk-based Libyan National Army (which is backed by both Russia and Egypt). Only the prompt (and rather mysterious) deployment of Russian air defenses and a number of unidentified MiG-29s succeeded in eventually bringing down enough Turkish drones to force them to take a pause. The Egyptians have made it clear that they will never allow the so-called “Government of National Accord” to take Sirte or any land East of Sirte. The Libyan Parliament (of East Libya) has now given Egypt the official authorization to directly intervene in Libya. This makes some kind of Egyptian intervention an almost certain thing.
  3. Hagia Sophia: And just to make sure there are enough sources of tension, the Turks have now declared that the Saint Sophia Cathedral in Istanbul will no longer be a museum open to all, but a mosque. Now the CIA-puppet modestly known as “His Most Divine All-Holiness the Archbishop of Constantinople, New Rome, and Ecumenical Patriarch” Bartholomew should be the most vocal opponent to this move, but all he can do is mumble some irrelevancies (he wanted to go down as the Patriarch who patronized the Ukrainian schism and, instead, he will go down in history as the Patriarch who did nothing to prevent the Ottomans from seizing one of the holiest sites of the Orthodox world. Truth be told, he probably could not have prevented that (Erdogan’s move is entirely due to upcoming elections in Turkey) – but he sure could have tried a little better. Ditto for the head of the Moscow Patriarchate (and, for that matter, the Russian government) who expressed stuff like concern, or dismay, of some form of condemnation, but who really did nothing to make Erdogan pay for his move.
What the Turks just did is a disgrace, not only for Turkey itself which, yet again, proves that the Ottoman version of Islam is a particularly toxic and dangerous one. It is also a disgrace for the entire Muslim world which, with a few notable exceptions such as Sheikh Imran Hosein, has done nothing to prevent this and, if anything, has approved of this move. Finally, this is a disgrace for the entire Orthodox world as it proves that the entire worldwide Orthodox community has less relevance and importance in the eyes of the Turkish leader than the outcome of local elections. Russia, especially, would have the kind of political muscle needed to inflict all sorts of painful forms of retaliation against Turkey and yet Russia does nothing. This is a sad witness to the extreme weakness of the Orthodox faith in the modern world.
Add to this all the “traditional” sources of instability around Turkey, including the still unsolved (and unsolvable!) Kurdish issue, the tensions between Turkey and Iraq and Iran, Turkish low-key support for anti-Russian factions in the various former Soviet Republics and the constant confrontation with Greece).
Turkey remains one of the most dangerous states on the planet, even if most people remain unaware of this. True, in the recent years Turkey lost a lot of its power, but it still has plenty of formidable assets (including a very strong domestic weapon systems manufacturing capability) which it can use for a vast spectrum of nefarious political and military interventions.

Egypt

Egypt is another country which regularly makes some headlines and then disappears from the public’s radar. Yet, right now, Egypt is faced not with one, but with twopossible wars!
  1. Libya: as I mentioned above, should it come to an open clash between Turkey and Egypt in Libya, there could be a rapid horizontal escalation in which initial military clashes in Libya could turn into clashes over the Eastern Mediterranean and even possible strikes on key military objectives in Turkey and Egypt. The only good news here is that there are a lot of major actors who do not need a shooting war in the Eastern Mediterranean and/or the Middle-East. After all, if it came to a true military confrontation between Turkey and Egypt, then you can be pretty sure that NATO, CENTCOM, Greece, Israel and Russia would all have major concerns. Besides, it is hard to imagine what kind of military “victory” either Turkey or Egypt could hope for. Right now the situation is very tense, but we can hope that all the parties will realize that a negotiated solution, even a temporary one, is preferable to a full-scale war.
  2. Ethiopia: Egypt has a potentially much bigger problem than Libya to deal with: the construction by Ethiopia of the “The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam(GERD)” on the Blue Nile river. While nobody really knows what the eventual impact of this dam will be on Sudan and Egypt, is is pretty clear that a civilization built along the Nile river will face a major threat to its way of life if the way the Nile river flows is disturbed in a major way (which this dam will definitely do).
Of the two possible conflicts I mentioned above, it is the second one which has me most worried. At the end of the day, neither Turkey nor Egypt will get to decide what happens in Libya which is mostly a kind of multi-player “chessboard” where “big guys” (US, France, Russia) will eventually decide the outcome. In the case of the dam in Ethiopia, the local actors will probably have a decisive say, especially since both sides consider that this is an existentially important issue for them.
If you look at a map of the region, you will see that the distance between the Egyptian border and the location of the dam on the border between Ethiopia and Sudan is a long one (about 1’200km or 745 miles). Should it come to a military confrontation between the two countries, this distance will pretty much decide the shape of the warfare we shall see: mainly air and missile strikes. The main problem here (for both sides) is that neither side has the kind of air force or missiles which would allow it to effectively strike the other country. This, however, could change very rapidly, especially if Russia does sell 24 of its advanced Su-35 multi-role air superiority fighters to Egypt, and even more so if Russia throws in a few capable air-to-ground strike missiles into the package (the delivery of the first Sukhois appears to be imminent). Then there is this “minor detail” of Sudan being stuck between the two combatants: Khartoum simply cannot look away and pretend like all is well if two of its major neighbors decide to fight each other over Sudanese airspace.
In theory Egypt could also try to mount some attack from the Red Sea, but right now the Egyptian Navy does not pack the kind of punch which would allow it to effectively strike Ethiopia (especially with Eritrea in between the Red Sea and Ethiopia). But that could also change, especially since Egypt agreed to purchase the two Gamal Abdel Nasser (ex-Mistral) class amphibious assault ships and helicopter carriers which, while not ideal, would definitely boost the Egyptian’s command and control capabilities, especially if the Egyptians succeed in deploying AWACS and strike aircraft (rotary or even light fixed wing V/STOL) on these ships. In practice, however, I think that the Egyptians could engage these ships much more effectively in Libya than they would in the Red Sea (especially since these ships are poorly defended against missile strikes).
Finally, not only is the GERD defended by decent air defense systems (along with a few decent, if aging, air force aircraft), a dam is a pretty hard target to disable: it is big, strong, and has a large volume which, by itself, also contributes to the “hardness” against attacks.
So there are reasons to hope that a conflict can be avoided, but it will be very hard to get the two sides to agree to compromises on issues which both sides see as vital to their national security.

The Ukraine

Yes, the Ukraine. Again. This insanity which began with the Euromaidan has not stopped, far from it. In fact, ever since the election of Zelenskii the Ukraine has become something of a madhouse which would be outright hilariously comical if it wasn’t also so tragic and even horrible for millions of Ukrainians. I will spare you all the details, but we can sum up the main development of the past months as “Zelenskii has completely lost control of the country”. But that would not even begin to cover the reality of this situation.
For one thing, the war of words between Trump and Biden over the Ukraine-gate has now “infected” the Ukrainian political scene and each side is now busy with what is known locally as “black PR”: trying to dig up as much dirt against your opponent as possible. Zelenskii is so weak that, amazingly, the previously almost totally discredited Poroshenko has now made a strong comeback and thereby acquired the support of a lot of influential nationalists. The latest incredible (but true!) “informational bomb” was set off by a member of the Ukrainian Rada, Andrei Derkach, who released a recording of Joe Biden and Poroshenko discussing the pros and cons of organizing a terrorist attack in Crimea (see here for details about this amazing story). This makes both Biden and Poroshenko “sponsors of terrorism” (hardly a surprise, but still). Other “juicy” news stories about the Nazi-occupied Banderastan include Zelenskii possibly fathering a kid with an aide and the brutal attacks on the members of a small (but growing) “Sharii” opposition party which the authorities not only ignored, but most likely ordered in the first place. It is not my purpose here to discuss all the toxic intricacies of internal Ukronazi politics, so I will only look at one of the major dangers resulting from this dynamic: there is talk of war with Russia again.
Okay, we have all heard the very same rumors for years now, and yet no real and sustained Ukrainian attack on the LDNR or, even less so, Crimea ever took place (there were constant artillery strikes and diversionary attacks, but those remain below the threshold of open warfare). But what we hear today is a little bit different: an increasing number of Ukrainian and even Polish observers have declared that Russia would attack this summer or in September, possibly using military maneuvers to move forces to the Ukrainian border and attack. Depending on whom you ask, such an attack could come from Belarus and/or from central Russia – some even worry about a Russian amphibious operation against the Ukrainian coastline and cities like Mariupol, Nikolaev, Kherson or Odessa.
The Ukronazis are truly amazing. First they cut off all the electricity and even water from Crimea, and then they declare that Russia will have to invade to retake control of the water supply. The notion that Russia will solve Crimea’s water problem by peaceful and technological means is, apparently, quite unthinkable for the Ukronazi leaders. In the real world, however, Russia has a comprehensive program to comprehensively solve Crimea’s water problems. This program has begun by laying down water pipes, improving of the irrigation system of Crimea, the use of special aircraft to trigger rain and might even include the creation of a desalination plant. The simple truth is that Russia can easily make Crimea completely independent from anything Ukrainian.
And just to make things worse, the head of the Ukrainian Navy (which exists on paper mostly) has now declared that a new Ukrainian missile, the Neptune, could reach as far as Sevastopol. The problem is not the missile itself (it is a modernized version of an old Soviet design, and it is slow and therefore easy to shoot down), but the kind of “mental background noise” that this kind of talk of war creates.
From a purely military point of view, Russia does not even have to move any troops to defeat the Ukrainian armed forces: all Russia needs to do is to use its powerful long-range stand-off weapons and reconnaissance-strike complexes to first decapitate, then disorganize and finally destroy the Ukrainian military. Russia’s superiority in the air, on the water and on land is such that the Ukrainians don’t have a chance in hell to survive such an attack, nevermind defeating Russia. The Ukrainians all know that since, after all, their entire military could not even deal with the (comparatively) minuscule and infinitely weaker LDNR forces (at least when compared to regular Russian forces).
Still, the Ukrainians have one advantage over Russia: while this would be extremely dangerous to try, they must realize that, unlike in the case of their attacks on the Donbass, should they dare to attack Crimea, President Putin would not have any other option than to order a retaliatory strike of some sort. Any Ukrainian attack or strike on Crimea would probably fail with all the missiles intercepted long before they could reach their targets, but even in this case the pressure on Putin to put an end to this would be huge. Which means that it would not be incorrect to say that whoever is in power in Kiev can force Russia to openly intervene. This means that in this specific case the weaker side can have at least some degree of escalation dominance.
Now the Ukraine definitely cannot achieve strategic surprise and is even most unlikely to achieve tactical surprise, but, again, the actual success of any Ukrainian strike on Crimea does not require the designated targets of the strike to be destroyed: all that would be needed, in some plans at least, is the ability to do two things:
  • Force Russia to openly intervene and
  • Choose the time, place and mode of attack most problematic for the Russian side
Finally, I would suggest that we look at this issue from the point of view of the AngloZionist Empire: in many, if not most, ways, the Banderastan the West created in the Ukraine has outlived its utility: the USN won’t get a base in Crimea which is now lost forever (it is now one of the best defended places on the planet), Russia has not openly intervened in the civil war, the Ukronazi forces were comprehensively trounced by the Novorussians and in economic terms, and the Ukraine is nothing but one big black hole with an ever growing event horizon. Which might suggest to some in the US ruling elites that to trigger a losing war against Russia might be the best (and, possibly, only) thing their ugly creation could do for them. Why?
Well, for one thing, such a war will be bloody, even if it is short. Second, since the Russians are exceedingly unlikely to want to occupy any part of what is today the Nazi-occupied Ukraine, this means that even a total military defeat would not necessarily result in a complete disappearance of the current Banderastan. Yes, more regions in the East and the South might try to use this opportunity to rise up and liberate themselves, and should that happen Russia might offer the kind of help she offered the Novorussians, but I don’t think that anybody seriously believes that Russian tanks will be seen on Kiev or, even less so, Lvov (nevermind Warsaw or Riga). So a military loss against Russia would not be a total loss for Banderastan and it might even yield some beneficial dynamics to whatever consolidated Ukronazi-power might come out from such a conflict. Actually, should that happen I fully expect the Ukronazis to declare a kind of jihad to liberate the Moskal’ -occupied Ukraine. This means that the initial bloodbath would be followed by a festering low to medium level military conflict between Russia and the Ukraine which could last a very long time and also be most undesirable for Russia.
During my studies I had the honor and privilege to study with a wonderful Colonel of the Pakistani Army who became a good friend. One day (that was around 1991) I asked my friend what the Pakistani strategy would be during a possible war against India. He replied to me: “look, we all know that India is much stronger and bigger than Pakistan, but what we all also know is that if they attack us we can give them a very bloody nose”. This is exactly what the Ukrainian strategy might be: to give Russia a “bloody nose”. Militarily, this is impossible, of course, but in political terms any open war against the Ukraine would be a disaster for Russia. It would also be a disaster for the Ukraine, but the puppet-masters of the Ukronazis in Kiev don’t care about the people of the Ukraine anymore than they care about the people of Russia: all they want is to give the Russians a big bloody nose.
In summary, here is one possible scenario which might result in a regional catastrophe: whoever is in power in the Ukraine would begin by realizing that the project of an Ukronazi Banderastan has already failed and that neither the EU nor, even less so, the US is willing to continue to toss money into the Ukie black hole. Furthermore, clever Ukie politicians will realize that neither Poroshenko nor Zelensii have “delivered” the expected “goods” to the Empire. Then the East-European US vassal-states (lead by Poland and the Baltic statelets) also realize that EU money is running out and that far from having achieved any real economic progress (nevermind any “miracle”), they are also becoming increasingly irrelevant to their masters in the EU and US. And, believe me, the political leaders of these US vassal-states have realized a long time ago that a war between Russia and the Ukraine would be a fantastic opportunity for them to regain some value in the eyes of their imperial overlords in the EU and US. To people who think like these people do, even an attempted Neptune strike against Sevastopol would be a quick and quite reasonable way to force Putin’s hand.
Lastly, we can now look at the situation in Russia

Russia

One would think that following the massive victory the Kremlin has achieved with the vote on the changes to the Russian Constitution, the political situation in Russia would be idyllic, at least compared to the sinking Titanic of the “collective West”. Alas, this is far from being the case. Here are some of the factors which contribute to a potentially dangerous situation inside Russia.
  1. As I have mentioned in the past, besides the “official” (pretend) opposition in the Duma, there are now two very distinct “non-system” oppositions to Putin: the bad old “liberals” (which I sometimes call the 5th column) and the (relatively new) “pink-nationalist” Putin-haters which I christened, somewhat tongue-in-cheek, I admit – as a 6th column (Ruslan Ostashko calls them “emo-Marxists“, and that is a very accurate description too). What is so striking is that while Russian 5th and 6th columnists hate each other, they clearly hate Putin even more. Many of them also hate the Russian people because they don’t “get it” (at least in their opinion) and because time and again the people vote with and for Putin. Needless to say, these “5th and 6th columnists” (let’s call them “5&6c” from now on) declare that the election was stolen, that millions of votes were not counted at all, while others were counted many times. According to these 5&6c types, it is literally unthinkable that Putin would get such a high support therefore the only explanation is that the elections were rigged. While the sum total of these 5&6c types is probably not enough to truly threaten Putin or the Russian society, the Kremlin has to be very careful in how it handles these groups, especially since the condition of the Russian society is clearly deteriorating:
  2. Russia has objective, real, problems which cannot simply be dismissed. Most Russians clearly would prefer a much more social and economically active state. The reality is that the current political system in Russia cares little for the “little man”. The way the Kremlin and the Russian “big business” are enmeshed is distressing to a lot of Russians, and I agree with them. Furthermore, while the western sanctions did a great job preparing Russia for the current crisis, it still remains true that Russia does not operate in such a favorable environment, revenues are down in many sectors, and the COVID19 pandemic has also had a devastating effect on Russian small businesses. And while the issue of the COVID19 virus has not been so hopelessly politicized in Russia has it has in the West, a lot of my contacts report to me that many people feel that the Kremlin and the Moscow authorities have mismanaged the crisis. So while the non-systemic opposition of the 5&6c cannot truly threaten Russia, there are enough of what I would call “toxic and potentially dangerous trends” inside the Russian society which could turn into a much bigger threat should a crisis suddenly erupt (including a crisis triggered by an always possible Ukrainian provocation).
  3. More and more Russians, including Putin-supporters, are getting frustrated with what they perceive as being a lame and frankly flaccid Russian foreign policy. This does not necessarily mean that they disagree with the way Putin deals with the big issues (say Crimea, or Syria or the West’s sabre-rattling), but they get especially frustrated by what they perceive as lame Russian responses against petty provocations. For example, the US Congress and the Trump Administration have continued to produce sanctions and stupid accusations against Russia on a quasi-daily basis, yet Russia is really doing nothing much about that, in spite of the fact that there are many options in her political “toolkit” to really make the US pay for that attitude. Another thing which irritates the Russians is that arrogant, condescending and outright rude manner in which western politicians (and their paid for journalists in Russia) constantly intervene in internal Russian matters without ever being seriously called out for this. Sure, some particularly nasty characters (and organization) have been kicked out of Russia, but not nearly enough to really send a clear message Russia’s enemies.
  4. And, just to make things worse, there are some serious problems between Russia and her supposed allies, specifically Belarus and Kazakhstan. Nothing truly critical has happened yet, but the political situation in Belarus is growing worse by the day (courtesy of, on one hand, the inept policies of Lukashenko and, on the other, a resurgence of Kazakh nationalism, apparently with the approval of the central government). Not only is the destabilization of two major Russian allies a bad thing in itself, it also begs the question of how Putin can deal with, say, Turkey or Poland, when Russia can’t even stabilize the situation in Belarus and Kazakhstan.
To a large degree, I share many of these frustrations too and I agree that it is time for Putin and Russia to show a much more proactive posture towards the (eternally hostile) West.
My problem with the 5th column is that it is composed of rabid russophobes who hate their own nation and who are nothing but willing prostitutes to the AngloZionist Empire. They want Russia to become a kind of “another Poland only further East” or something equally insipid and uninspiring.
My problem with the 6th column is that it hates Putin much more than it loves Russia, which is regularly shows by predicting either a coup, or a revolution, or a popular uprising or any other bloody event which Russia simply cannot afford for two main reasons:
  1. Russia almost destroyed herself twice in just the past century: in 1917 and 1991. Each time, the price paid by the Russian people was absolutely horrendous and the Russian nation simply cannot afford another major internal conflict.
  2. Russia is at war against the Empire, and while this war remains roughly an 80% informational/ideological one, about 15% an economic one and only about 5% a kinetic war, it remains that this is a total, existential, war for survival: either the Empire disappears or Russia will. This is therefore a situation where any action which weakens your state, your country and its leader always comes dangerously close to treason.
Right now the biggest blessing for Russia is that neither the 5th nor the 6th column has managed to produce even a halfway credible political figure who at least appears as marginally capable of offering realistic solutions. A number of 5th columnists have decided to emigrate and leave what they see as “Putin’s Mordor”. Alas, I don’t see any stream of 6th columnists leaving Russia, which objectively makes them a much more useful tool for outfits like the CIA who will not hesitate to infiltrate even a putatively anti-US political movement if this can weaken Russia in general, or Putin personally.
Right now the Russian security services are doing a superb job countering all these threats (including the still very real Wahabi terrorist threat) all at the same time. However, considering the rather unstable and even dangerous international political situation, this could change if all the forces who hate Putin and what they call “Putinism” either join forces or simply strike at the same time.

Conclusion

There are, of course, many other potential flashpoints on the planet, including India, Pakistan and China, the South China Sea, the Persian Gulf, the Korean Peninsula and many others. Thus the above is only a sampling of a much larger list.
The huge changes taking place before our eyes are real, and they are huge. But we should not follow the lead of the corporate media and focus on only one or two “hot” topics, especially not when there are plenty of very real dangers out there. This being said, there is no doubt that what will happen in the next couple of months inside the United States is by far the biggest and most important development out there, one which will shape the future of our planet no matter what actually happens. And I am not referring to the totally symbolic non-choice between Biden and Trump.
I am referring to how the US society will deal with a virulently anti-US coalition of minorities which hate this country and everything, good and bad that it stood for in the past. Right now the US elites are committing national suicide by not only failing to oppose, but also by actively supporting the BLM thugs and everything they stand for: BLM & Co. remind me of Ukronazis whose main expression of national identity is to hate everything Russian – the BLM thugs do the same thing: their entire worldview is pure hatred of the hetero White male and the western civilization; and just as the Ukies regale each other with stories about the “ancient Ukrs” the BLM folks imagine that they will somehow turn the US into a type Wakanda before expelling (or worse) all those who are not willing to hand over their country to roaming gangs of illiterate thugs.
While Russia has to face the potential of internal violence, the United States is already facing a dangerous and violent insurrection which is likely to become much worse as the economic crisis triggered by the pandemic fully explodes. So far, the effects of this crisis have been somewhat tempered by a combination of 1) political denials about the nature of the threat (“oh, nonsense, it is just like the seasonal flu!“) 2) the mass distribution of money (which has only helped temporarily) 3) the existence of a huge financial bubble which will only make matters worse, but which temporarily can create the illusion that things are not nearly as bad as they really are.
It is said that nature abhors a vacuum. This is true. It is also true that the collapse of the Empire has now created several vacuums which will be filled by new actors, but there is no guarantee at all that this transition will be peaceful. So while we are watching some very big trees burning, we should not forget that behind these trees there is a big forest which can also burn, possibly creating a much bigger forest fire than the trees we see burning today.

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