Revisiting Russian objectives in the Ukraine

January 17, 2023

Check out this list of headlines, all from one source only, RT and all from the past week or so:

Some are only “more of the same” (like the Ukronazis making the Aussies ban Russian flags at the Open), some are rather disgusting (like the Ukronazi blogger who wants to exterminate the Russian people), some are revolting (like the French warning 5000 Russian graves that “their concession is expiring”!), some are hilarious (like the idea of bust of “Ze” at the Capitol building), some are outright crazy (like the idea of a “Ukraine peace summit” without Russian participation).  Some are weird but encouraging (like the Kentucky gubernatorial candidate, a Democrat, calling for an impeachment of Biden for war crimes).  But some are very, very serious indeed (like the increase of the size of the Russian military to 1.5M or the fact that both the General Milley and Defense Minister Shoigu visiting their troops at the same time.

One could certainly say that these headlines are “signs of the time” (“but can ye not discern the signs of the times?” Matt 16:2-3), but what does this all mean?

First, these headlines are like a snapshot of the West’s collective insanity.  Please keep in mind that the past week was no more and no less rich in crazy ideas and statements than previous weeks.  This snapshot is what one could call the “West’s homeostasis” or, in other words, that is the norm, the stable mental condition in which the West operates.  Future historians, assuming the AngloZionists freaks in power allow us to have a future other than a nuclear apocalypse, will marvel at the collective insanity which overcame an entire continent.

Second, both the rabid #CancelRussia mass phenomenon and the discussions about sending NATO weapons, including MBTs, fighter aircraft, SAMs and the like are an expression of the same impotent rage felt by the leaders of the West.  And headlines like this one “Russian economy doing much better than expected (…)” The financial results for 2022 have exceeded many forecasts, the president [Putin] says” certainly do not help.

The obvious danger here is that frustrated, hate-filled people are typically not capable of rational decision-making.  Let’s, for example, take the “clever” idea of sending the Ukronazis (well, NATO, really) more tanks or aircraft.  If you look at the numbers discussed, they are so small as to make no difference.  But once you sent them to the Ukraine and they get destroyed by Russian missiles, what do you do next?  Send more?

It took the Russians about one month to basically destroy the (original) Ukrainian armed forces.

Then it has taken Russia about 9 months to destroy most of the hardware former Warsaw Treaty Organization (no, it is *not* called a “Pact” – that is pure propaganda and why not call NATO the Atlantic Pact by the same logic?).  The sad part here is that in the process of destroying all that WTO kit, Russia had not choice but to inflict horrendous casualties with Ukrainian KIA/MIA going well into the several hundred of thousands.  “Ze” sent wave after wave after wave of mobilized men straight into the Russian meat-grinder with no chance of prevail and very little chance of survival.

It might take Russia a year or more to fully destroy all the hardware (and “volunteers”) sent by NATO.  Russia is certainly making plans for a long and major war, hence the re-creation of the Moscow and Leningrad Military Districts (you can think of them as “fronts” once a war starts) or the massive increase in weapons procurement up to and including strategic deterrence forces (nuclear and conventional).

Right now, Russia seems to be focusing on destroying the (comparatively) better trained units of the mixed NATO-Ukronazi forces in the eastern Ukraine.  The Russian strategy is very simple: Russia can kill NATO soldiers and hardware faster than NATO can provide reinforcements.  Obviously, this is only a temporary situation, and there are three groupings of Russian forces (North, East, South) all along the frontlines which can intervene at any time and give Russia something she never had since the initiation of the SMO: a full combined arms offensive and a numerical superiority over the other side.

Most knowledgeable observers, such as Col Maggregor, believe that a Russian offensive is all but certain.  Wars can be very unpredictable, and Putin does have a genius ability to act in unpredictable ways, so I would not say that this offensive is absolutely certain, but I agree that it is highly likely.  However, such an offensive is not risk free.

In purely military terms, there is no force on the European continent which could take on the Russian forces currently aligned along the Ukrainian border.  In political terms, there is a major issue for Russia: any terrain that she liberates will have to be protected.

During the first phase of the SMO, the Russians sent in a comparatively small force, which did great in combat against the Ukronazis, but which did not hold ground (which you never do in economy of force and maneuver warfare), resulting into absolutely awful optics including:

  • The perception that Russia promises to come and protect the people she liberated only to then abandon them.
  • The perception that the Russian retreated because of Ukronazi military successes.

The fact that neither of these statements is quite true does not help as they are “close enough” to the truth to sound convincing.  As a result, the Russian side completely lost control of the narrative, for a while even inside Russia!  It took the appointment of Surovikin to reassure the Russian public that while mistakes were made (including in the early phase of the war or during the mobilization), those mistakes would be addressed and corrected.  Now with the Russian Chief of General Staff in final and personal control of the war, nobody doubts that the Kremlin does mean business.

There is also a small, but noticeable change, in the western propaganda with more and more voices dissenting from the official AngloZionist party line.  Of course,  the economic disaster facing the EU is most helpful in sobering up the Europeans: now that more and more EU citizens have to say “bye bye” to the comforts and jobs they used to enjoy (including first and foremost, dirt cheap energy costs), we can count on an increasingly loud rumble of protests.  Maybe not “pro-Russian” ones, no – most Europeans, especially northern Europeans, *do* hate Russia – but at least anti-Establishment ones.  Having silenced your conscience does not keep you warm or, for that matter, employed.  The EU will now discover the very real costs of rabid russophobia.  And sending tanks to the Ukraine obviously won’t help.  Hence the current strikes and protests in several EU countries.

So when the promised offensive materializes, there will be only two options left: ditch the Ukronazi regime “Kabul style” or full commit NATO (or a subset of NATO states) to invade the western Ukraine.  My money is on the latter option.

Actually, this is not one option, but two very different ones.

  • In the first case, NATO (or a subset) will move in unilaterally hoping that Russia will not strike the occupation force.
  • In the second case, the US and Russia could strike a deal and jointly agree to partition the rump-Ukraine.

Obviously, the second solution in infinitely safer and preferable, but just like Hitler and his goons did not want to negotiate with Russian subhumans, neither do the AngloZionists.

Still, here is a truism which must be always kept in mind:

==>>There is nothing in the Ukraine Russia wants or needs<<==

This was true of the Ukraine before the SMO, and it is even more true today.  Country 404 is basically deindustrialized and a prototypical failed state, while the population has been so brainwashed that it will take years to deprogram them.  Russia only wants two things:

  • Protect the Russian speaking population from genocide
  • Deny NATO the use the Ukraine territory to attack Russia

Notice that neither of these options necessarily requires making major territorial gains.  I would even argue that, with one exception (see below), it would be ideal for Russia to achieve these objectives by liberating as little as possible of the currently Nazi occupied land.  As I have said it many times, the Ukrainians need to clear their own house and not expect Russia to do it for them.  Alas, it will take another generation of Ukrainians to do that, assuming they ever will.  But as long as country 404 is sufficiently demilitarized, Russia can wait for the denazification to seep into the minds of millions of brainwashed Ukrainians.

The first consequence of this, is that the Russians are more than happy not to move forward and have the US push NATO forces into the Russian meat grinder.  True, it is unlikely that Russia will be able to demilitarize and denazify the Ukraine without a major offensive to finish up the Nazi forces.  However, the seizure of land is not the Russian goal, only the means to achieve it.

Then there is the issue of the Nikolaev-Odessa-PMR (Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic).

While the Kremlin might have other plans, I personally don’t see any other option than to open a land corridor to PMR.  This would also have the immense benefit of cutting the rump-Banderastan from the Black Sea.  For NATO, however, the loss of Odessa and the Black Sea Coast would be a major setback, both politically and militarily.  There were some really dumb ideas circulated about this in the West,including sending in the 101st as a “tripwire” force.  Why is that dumb?  Simply because *IF* the Russians have concluded that the liberation of the entire Ukrainian coast is vital to the security of Russia, then no “tripwire” force will stop them.  And what will the US do if that tripwire force is attacked?  Launch a fullscale nuclear attack on Russia?

Are the US Neocons willing to lose Washington DC, New York, Miami or Los Angeles over Odessa?  I don’t know, but if they are the typical self-worshiping Nazis (which they are), then a nuclear holocaust might seem preferable to these hate-filled freaks.  Can somebody sane stop them?  I don’t know that either.

The headlines above suggest to me that no real decision has been made and that right now there is a tug of war inside the western ruling elites about what to do when the (almost certainly) inevitable Russian offensive happens.  By the way, this fact by itself might be a good reason for the Russians not to move in too soon.  Yes, it is unlikely that saner voices will prevail, but being a nuclear superpower Russian must act with utmost caution and not listen to the Russian turbopatriots and the western “friends of Russia” would have been advocating for total war for months, if not years.

Maybe the “Georgian model” is what might save the day?

Remember how during the three day war in 08.08.08 Russian forces were closing on Tbilissi with nobody left to defend the Georgian capital?  The Russians decided to call back their forces (no, Russia has no need for either the land or the people of Georgia.  Sounds familiar?) but Saakashvili reinterpreted this withdrawal as “our heroic and invincible forces stopped the Russians”.  And two years before that, Dubya who declared with a straight face that Israel defeated Hezbollah the “Divine Victory” war.  So maybe the AngloZionist can save face by declaring that they “prevented Russian from seizing Lvov or Ivano-Frankovsk”?  And if the Russians decide not to try to liberate Kiev, then NATO will be able to declared that “we stopped Russia from seizing Kiev”.  Yes, that would be a rather transparent lie, at least for those few still capable of critical thought, but I personally much prefer a lie, however, silly, to a fullscale war.

So maybe Russia needs to have a third, unspoken, objective: give the crazies in the West a face-saving “out”, no matter how thin or ridiculous.  In fact, I am pretty confident that there are folks in Russia working on this right now.

Andrei

The city of Soledar has been liberated by the Wagner PMC

January 11, 2023

This “news” was weeks in the making, but this time it is official: the city of Soledar has been liberated by the Wagner PMC (with Russian Airborne Forces blocking the city from the North and South).  Why did it take so much time?

First, just as the regular armed forces, the Wagner PMC engages in economy of force tactics, meaning that they try to keep their own casualties to the absolute minimum while trying to degrade the enemy forces.  In this case, the Ukronazis threw battalion after battalion into the Russian meat grinder with the hope of being able to maintain their control over Soledar.  It is quite clear that the Wagner PMC and the Russian military were more than happy to keep that going on.  Some sources claim that NATO lost 14 battalions in a desperate attempt to avoid a Russian liberation.  So even if we take only half of this figure, that is still seven battalions lost on the NATO side (note that the 14 battalions is a Ukie, not Russian, claim!).

Second, the Russians wanted to close a cauldron (the first cauldron of 2023!) without themselves risking envelopment.  So they had to secure the flanks before they would move in.

[Sidebar: I regularly get the same “question” by butt-hurt trolls: “where did all of your “cauldrons” go?”  So for those who might ask this sincerely, I will reply here: they went nowhere :-).  The entire NATO force in the Donbass still sits in an “open operational cauldron” meaning that they are under pressure from the North, East and South and have only one “safe(r)” direction for rotation and supplies: from the West.  That western direction, however, is quite well known to the Russians, who have superb C4ISR capabilities, and so while NATO has been successful at using this direction to support the NATO group in the Donbass, they did that at a huge cost.  This is the official, Russian MoD, figures for Ukrainian losses in 2022:

Now, of course, I hear the voices objecting “but this is Russian propaganda!!!“.  Okay, let’s reduce these figures by 50%, fair enough?  We still get 177 aircraft, 99 helicopters, 1397 UAVs, 199 SAMs, 3683 MBTs and other armored vehicles, 478 MLRS, 1881 artillery pieces and 3938 military vehicles.  As for the KIA/MIA figures, they are in the hundreds of thousands.  Most of that damage was done by artillery strikes, by the way which, in spite of a truly massive NATO effort to win the counter-battery engagements, outcomes have shown that Russian artillery is simply better, in spite of the formidable NATO C3ISR capabilities.  So, coming back to our “semi-open cauldrons” (i.e. open on three sides, with the fourth under Russian fire control), they gave the Russians a great deal of flexibility, in spite of the numerical inferiority of the Russian forces, to massively degrade NATO forces.  Bottom line: the fact that western sources do not report a single word about these cauldrons does not mean they never existed or suddenly vanished]

Third, Soledar, like Mariupol, had formidable defenses made even stronger by eight years of preparations.  Besides over 200km of tunnels and mines, Soledar has a very large “promka” (industrial zone) which made advances very difficult and dangerous (a similar situation to what took place in Mariupol).  The Wagner folks took all their sweet time going in slow and saving their forces.  As always, you cannot spot the degradation of the NATO defenses until they suddenly crumble, which is what happened in the last 24 hours.

According to several reports, the Ukronazi 46th airmobile brigade, one of the most elite Ukronazi unit has been basically wiped out.  This is also significant.

So what does this mean for the “big picture”?

By itself, not that much.  Yes, NATO forces are in a cauldron inside Soledar, but they number only a few hundred soldiers and, just as in Mariupol, their commanders have run away (on the 8th, apparently).  The mopping up of this small cauldron will not take much time or effort.

Here is, just to give you an idea of what is going on these days, a video of Polish soldiers near Artemovsk getting hit by Russian strikes:

Now imagine that happening along the entire frontline, especially in the Donbass.

The Russian liberation of Soledar does threaten the NATO positions in the city of Bakhmut/Artemovsk (the most advanced Russian units are 5km from the downtown center of the city!). I don’t like pseudo-military maps too much, but just to give you an idea of the area we are discussing, this one is adequate:

To understand that map, all you need to know is that Соледар is Soledar and Артемовск (Бахмут) means Artemovsk(Bakhmut).  Though you might also want to look at the city indicated as Краматорск (top left) which is the NATO stronghold of Kramatorsk (famous in 2014-2015).  BTW – can you spot more potential cauldrons on this map?

To make a long story short, the cities of Soledar and Artemovsk are locating smack in the middle of the NATO defense lines.  Their liberation means that NATO forces will have to fallback to what we can call their third or even fourth lines of defense.

The main headache for NATO now is that it is impossible to predict what the Russians will do next.  In the next few days, they will have to mop-up the small NATO force in the city center, then rotate troops and give them some rest.  But after that, it is impossible to predict where the Russians will push next.  Here are three main options:

  • The Russians will seek the develop their success locally
  • The Russians will launch their much announced “Big Offensive”
  • The Russians will continue to hold and grind more KIA/MIA into the ground

I do not have access to Russian plans, but I do not believe that the liberation of Soledar by itself will have a major impact for the planned “Big Offensive” the Russian forces are ready to execute.  Yes, time is of the essence in warfare, but that means that, like in chess, sometimes that critical feature of time means that waiting is the correct use of that time.  That being said, the liberation of Soledar will have a major effect on NATO supply lines, both on roads and railways.

Again, the idea here is to transform the once unified NATO forces into smaller “chunks” unable to help each other.  By all signs, this has been an extremely effective Russian tactic.

Another location which NATO tried really hard to exploit is Kherson, yet all the NATO attacks failed and have now petered down to almost nothing (mostly UAV recon flight and regular artillery strikes).  Ditto for the Kharkov oblast were Ukie attacks mostly stopped.

Finally, here is another important marker: the size of the NATO offensives.  Remember how in the first months of the war the Ukrainian counter-attacks typically involved several brigades?  Then much of what we saw were battalion-size attacks.  Now most of what we see are very small, company-level, engagements.  Such, engagements are futile by definition: why bother with a company-level attack which, even if fully successful you won’t be able to develop even tactically, nevermind operationally?

The ONLY reason for such attacks are optics and PSYOPs.  Period.

The Russians won’t fight that way, because that way implies sending wave after wave after wave of bodies through into the Russian meat grinder for the sole purpose of taking a photo, making a video or claim another absolutely huge “peremoga” (all the NATO victories are huge, didn’t you know?).  Right now the KIA/MIA ratio between NATO and Russia is roughly about 10:1 and that is exactly how the Russians like it, even if they now have several hundred of thousand of soldiers in the South, East and North.

Simply put, NATO wants to fight Russia down the the last Ukrainian while Russia does not want to fight NATO down to the last Russian.  This is why NATO fights with bodies and Russia with (mostly) artillery shells.

Conclusion: let’s not start acting like NATO and Ukie airmchair generals and declare that the liberation of Soledar is a “huge” victory.  It is, however, very good news as it strongly suggests that the NATO first and second line of defense have been breached forcing NATO to regroup.  Could that be the “first crack” in the NATO defenses?  Maybe, maybe not, we need to see how NATO will respond before coming to conclusions.

Andrei

PS: interesting news today, seems that Putin has appointed the current chief of General Staff, General Gerasimov, as the head of all the Russian forces in the SMO, with Surovikin has his deputy.  This is one more indicator that the “Big Offensive” will be launched sooner rather than later.  Here is how the Russian MoD explained this appointment:

The increase in the level of leadership of a Special Military Operation is associated with the expansion of the scale of tasks solved during its implementation, the need to organize closer interaction between the types and branches of the Armed Forces, as well as improving the quality of all types of support and the effectiveness of the management of groups of troops (forces).

PPS: amazingly, even CNN is smelling the coffee this morning:

Here is the text posted under this headline:

A Ukrainian soldier fighting in the eastern town of Soledar told CNN that the situation is “critical” and the death toll is now so high that “no one counts the dead”. 

The soldier is from the 46th air mobile brigade, which is leading Ukraine’s fight to hold onto Soledar in the face of a massive assault from Russian troops and Wagner mercenaries.

CNN is not identifying him for security reasons.  “The situation is critical. Difficult. We are holding on to the last,” said the soldier said.”

He described a dynamic battlefield where buildings change hands daily and units can’t keep track of the escalating death toll. “No one will tell you how many dead and wounded there are. Because no one knows for sure. Not a single person,” he said. “Not at the headquarters. Not anywhere. Positions are being taken and re-taken constantly. What was our house today, becomes Wagner’s the next day.”

“In Soledar, no one counts the dead,” he added.

The soldier said it was unclear as of Tuesday night how much of the town was held by the Russians: “No one can definitely say who moved where and who holds what, because no one knows for sure. There is a huge grey area in the city that everyone claims to control, [but] it’s just any empty hype.”

The Ukrainians have lost many troops in Soledar but the ranks are being replenished as the fight for the mining town continues, he said: “The personnel of our units have been renewed by almost half, more or less. We do not even have time to memorize each other’s call signs [when new personnel arrive].”

The soldier said that he believed Ukraine’s military leaders would eventually abandon the fight for Soledar and questioned why they hadn’t done this yet. “Everyone understands that the city will be abandoned. Everyone understands this,” he said. “I just want to understand what the point [in fighting house to house] is. Why die, if we are going to leave it anyway today or tomorrow?”

The 46th air mobile brigade said on its Telegram channel on Tuesday that the situation in Soledar was “very difficult, but manageable.” 

In his nightly address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked the soldiers of the brigade “for their bravery and steadfastness in defending Soledar.”

Interview With Senator Richard Black on Ukraine’s War on the Donbass, Russia’s Reaction, NATO’s Drive to Nuclear War

 

Eva Bartlett

There is this element of madmen—some of the politicians, some of them military people, many of them in the US State Department, the CIA—who would be willing to do the most reckless and insane of actions to risk nuclear war or even to initiate it.”

On December 16, I spoke with Senator Richard Black about Ukraine’s long war against the civilians of the Donbass, Russia’s Special Military Operation in Ukraine, and the Western warmongers behind it all and their drive for endless war.

Senator Black has had an extensive military, legal and political career, serving in the US marines, and after obtaining his law degree, serving in the U.S. Army Judge Advocate General’s Corps and head of the Army’s Criminal Law Division in the Pentagon. He served eight years in the Virginia State Senate.

He is one of the few sane American voices loudly advocating for the end to Ukraine’s genocide of the Donbass people, and for an end to the West’s proxy war against Russia.

Follow him at:

http://www.senatorblack.com/

Related Links:

*Chronology of events: the war didn’t start in February 2022

*My Donetsk & Lugansk People’s Republics playlist

*My Syria writings

*The Referendum on Joining Russia

*Ukrainian war crimes I’ve experienced or documented

14 YEAR OLD IS ONE OF 87 DONBASS CIVILIANS MAIMED BY PETAL MINES FIRED BY UKRAINE

CARNAGE: UKRAINE’S TERRORISM ON DONETSK SEPTEMBER 19 KILLED 16 CIVILIANS, 9 IN ONE SPOT

UKRAINE SHELLED A COMPLETELY CIVILIAN AREA OF CENTRAL DONETSK, KILLING AT LEAST 5 CIVILIANS

UKRAINIAN TERRORISM OF CENTRAL DONETSK SEPTEMBER 17 KILLS 4, USING WESTERN WEAPONS

MORE UKRAINIAN WAR CRIMES: KILLING & MAIMING HEROIC DONBASS MEDICS & EMERGENCY WORKERS

DONBASS FRONTLINE VILLAGER: “UKRAINE DOESN’T CONSIDER US HUMAN”, WANTS TO “ANNIHILATE US”

USING AMERICAN HIMARS, UKRAINE BOMBED CENTRAL DONETSK BUILDING NOV 7

UKRAINE’S BOMBING OF CENTRAL DONETSK AUGUST 4: 2 BALLERINAS AMONG THE 6 MURDERED BY UKRAINE

UKRAINE BOMBED JUST OUTSIDE THE HOTEL I WAS IN. WAS UKRAINE TARGETING JOURNALISTS?

UKRAINIAN TERRORISM: FIRING MUNITIONS CONTAINING PETAL MINES ON DONBASS ORPHANAGE, ANOTHER WAR CRIME

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Are Ukrainians Russians?

December 06, 2022

Are Ukrainians Russians?

Seems like a simple question, but in reality it is immensely complex.  I will try to outline a few of the issues, assumptions and implications this question involves.

Well, for starters, we might want to ask “what is a Ukrainian?”  After all, no such nation or country can be found in history books.  But we should not stop here, and we also need to ask “what is a Russian?”.  Yes, there was a Russian nation and a Russian country recorded in history books, but does that really help us?

French history books used to begin with the sentence “our ancestors the Gauls” which even kids on the French colonies had to learn.  Some ridiculed the fact that sub-Saharan Africans or the children of Guadeloupe had to learn that and that was self-evidently ridiculous.

But what about metropolis French, those who lived in France proper?

Where their ancestors really Gauls and, if so, how much continuity, if any, is there between Vercingetorix and Macron or the people from ancient Gallic tribes to the modern French?

What we often overlook is that nationality is a very modern concept born out of the post 1789 ideology of nationalism.  In the more distant past, people built their identity around 1) their place of birth/residence 2) their religion and 3) their ruler.    Keeping all that in mind, let’s begin by asking the question “what is a Russian?”. But before we go there, I need to mention another pesky issue: the English word “Russian” can mean one of two things: a member of the Russian ethnic/cultural group, in which case the Russian term is русский (roosskii) or a citizen of the Russian Federation, in which case the Russian term would be россиянин (rossiianin).

[Sidebar: before 1917 you could be a “Russian Chechen” or “Russian German” because the distinction between rossiianin and roosskii did not exist then or, should we say, it was less common and used differently.  Russia being the cultural, political and spiritial heir to the East Roman Empire, it had multi-ethnicity built into her from the moment Russia appeared]

For the time being, let’s ignore the second meaning and focus on the ethnic/cultural русский (roosskii).  What is a русский (roosskii)?

To try to find a good definition, let’s being by spelling out what a Russian is not.

  • This is not somebody who speaks Russian.  There are plenty of folks out there who speak Russian and who are not Russian.
  • This is not somebody born in Russia, because there are plenty of non-Russians born in Russia.

How about somebody born from Russian parents?

Here we run into a logical problem: if we define as Russian somebody born of Russian parents without defining what Russian means in the first place, this is a completely circular definition.

Also, is Shoigu Russian?  This father is an ethnic Tuvan.  So 50% Russian max?

How about Czar Nicholas II?  His ancestry was mostly German and Danish.

How about Lenin? He had only 1/4 “Russian” blood (whatever that means)

Here we need to keep three crucial elements in mind:

  • Russia was always multi ethnic, even in the 10th century!
  • Russia has no natural borders
  • Russia was invaded by innumerable ethnic and religions groups and many of these groups acculturated into the Russian society adding their heritage to the common Russian one

Thus the “ethnic definition” does not work at all.

For countries like Japan or native people like the Mapuche ethnic categories might make sense, but for a country with a history and geography like Russia it is utterly meaningless (hence the reason why patriotism is a very positive force in Russia and nationalism a very toxic one).

But it only get even more complicated.

Just like, say, France or Italy, Russia went through very different moments in history and the Russia or, say, the 15th century and the Russia or the 19th century had very little in common.

Now this is highly subjective, but I would submit that at the very least, we can roughly break up the historical Russia into the following periods:

  • Russia before Peter I
  • Russia between Peter I and 1917
  • Soviet Russia between 1917 and 1991
  • US colonized Russia between 1991 and 2000
  • Putin’s Russia 2000-2021
  • Russia after 2022

And even this is a much simplified categorization, each period should also be further subdivided, but that would take too much space here.

Next I would also argue that how Russians defined themselves over these periods also changed, and this why pre-1917 Dostoevsky thought that one cannot be Russian unless one is Orthodox first (which might have make sense before 1917, but sure makes no sense at all in 2022).  My point here is not to discuss the best possible definition of “who/what is a Russian” but to show that this apparently simple question is also very complex and, at best, a moving target!

Now in the case of the Ukraine, it gets even more complex than that.

When I wrote above that there was no “Ukrainian nation” or “Ukrainian state” in history I did not mean to say that BECAUSE there were no such phenomena in history there is no such thing as a Ukrainian today.

To be clear, I do NOT believe that in order to consider yourself as belonging to an ethnic or cultural group you MUST have a historical basis for your claim.  Nations can be created, in fact, I would argue that all of them are created at some point in time.  Ethnogenesis is something we can observe on all continents, nations and ethnic groups: this is the emergence of a NEW and DISTINCT identity, usually followed by the creation of “founding myths” which might or might not have any real basis in history.

In the case of the Ukraine (I mean this term geographically here, the southwestern frontier/border lands of Russia), it is simply undeniable that these lands lived under Polish/Latin yoke for many centuries and that this occupation had two direct results:

  1. The people of the Ukraine had experiences with the rest of the Russian nation did not (such as being under Latin occupation or having Orthodox communities submitted the Greek and not the Russian Orthodox Church)
  2. The people of the Ukraine did not experience some of the most crucial events in Russian history (such as the Old Rite vs New Rite crisis which deeply shattered Russian society in the 17th century and after).

Such differences in experience left deep marks on the identity of the people it affected.  It would be foolish to deny this and it would be dangerous to deliberately ignore it!

So, to sum up what I have tried to show so far we could say that:

  1. History is not a useful tool to measure some supposed “legitimacy” of any one group’s claim of identity.
  2. Ethnic/cultural identities can arise both spontaneously and even artificially.

In the case of the Ukraine, it is a mix of both.  Primarily, the “Ukraine” is a creation of the Latin Papacy (see here for a discussion).  But, like it or not, the Latins did eventually trigger a Ukrainian ethnogenesis, albeit with varying degrees of success (roughly the further West, the longer the Polish yoke, the stronger that Ukrainian identity).

But even if none of that had happened, it would make no difference.

Even if we assume that there was absolutely NOTHING on our planet which could be called “Ukraine” or “Ukrainian”, and even if the people of the post-1991 Ukraine had ZERO historical basis for their claims, it is still a fundamental human right to choose your identity (or, more accurately, identities, plural).

If tomorrow the people of Japan decide that from now on their identity will not be Japanese but, say, Martian, we could laugh all we want, but we could not deny them that right or force them to give up their newly adopted “Martian” identity.

Furthermore, is it not silly to tell a person who absolutely hates Russia and all things Russian and who sincerely believes that he is from a totally different ethnic and cultural group, that this person has no right to his opinion that this person must accept that he is Russian?

That would create a “Russian russophobe”.

Actually, there are PLENTY of Russians russophobes out there.  Even if by any imaginable definition you are Russian (or any other nationality), you still have the free will to reject that heritage and choose another one (even a fictional one).

There is even a special term for these folks: вырусь (vyroos‘).  In my experience, most (but not all!) folks who voluntarily emigrated from Russia fall into this category.

This is why my first thesis here is this: those Ukrainians who chose to identify as Ukrainians and who reject any Russian heritage (whatever we may mean by that) have the moral right to do so and nobody has the moral right to deny them this choice.  And while historical arguments can be used to debunk the founding myths of the Ukronazi ideology, they still cannot be used to deny anybody what is a deeply personal choice.

[Sidebar: it is my personal belief that identities can be cumulative and that they don’t have to exclude each other.  While I personally consider myself culturally a “pre-1917 Russian”, I am 50% Dutch by DNA, I was born in German speaking Switzerland and lived most of my life in French speaking Geneva, and I also feel even more cultural identities inside me, including an Argentinian one.  I speak 5 languages well (albeit with many typos when I write, as you all know!) and another 2 reasonably.  I currently live in the USA (click here for an explanation why)  And just to add yet another element, I am a member of a Greek Orthodox Church, not a Russian one.  I also think of myself as a Jazz guitarist and freediver.  So even my hobbies form part of my identity.  Why should I have to limit myself to only one, “pure”, identity when I am so clearly a mongrel?  In fact, I embrace and enjoy all this diversity of influences which all have contributed to shape the person I am today.  And if I claim that right to cumulative identities, how could I deny it to anybody else?]

And then there is this undeniable fact: while about 80% of россиянин (rossiianin) are русский (roosskii), 20% are not.  In fact there are 193 ethnic groups in Russia and 35 languages which are considered official languages in various regions of Russia, along with Russian, plus are over 100 minority languages.  And while Chechens are not русский (roosskii) they are most definitely россиянин (rossiianin), that is to say that while Chechens are a distinct ethnic group, they are also part of what I call the “Russian civilizational realm”. One could reasonably argue that the Chechens of 2022 are the most patriotic of all Russians!

This makes a lot more sense to me that to dig into past clades, tribes or local native groups and seek some “biological identity”.

This is, by the way, one of the most striking and profound differences between the Russian and Ukronazi cultural models: Russians want and enjoy the immense diversity of their nations.  Ukronazi want a racially pure, russenrein, Ukraine (hence their constant talk about “subhumans”, “cockroaches” and “biomass”).

Let’s leave the idiotic concept of “pure race” to the Nazis, Zionists and their likes.

The first thing which I would immediately point out if that historically the lands which we now call the Ukraine were very much exposed to, or even part of, the Russian civilizational realm.  But that is absolutely NOT true of the current, Ukronazi/Banderista cultural identity which, in fact, was created as an anti-Orthodoxy and which nowadays sees itself as an anti-Russia.  I personally know that identity very, very well: not only have I met plenty of Ukronazis in my life, I also monitored the Ukronazi propaganda on VOA and RFE/RL for years and I know that Ukronazi nationalism has no positive content whatsoever, it is only a pure and total negation of everything Russian with a few truly ridiculous (and comical) claims about some “Ukrainian antiquity”.

In other words, even if you live in Odessa or Kharkov and you are (let’s simply assume that) from 100% pure ethnic Russian stock (no such thing, but bear with me), you STILL get to reject that identity and adopt any identity you want, including the Ukronazi/Banderistsa one.

At this point, I want to list all the criteria which are plainly not helpful to discuss identities:

  • Genetic makeup
  • Place of birth
  • Mother-tongue (or languages)
  • Religion
  • History in general and historical borders (which constantly shifted) specifically
  • Whether we personally approve of an ideology or cultural claim or not
  • Political ideologies
  • Identities embraced in the past
  • The difference between a language and a dialect
  • Similarities and differences with other identities

And yet, every time I hear people discuss whether the Russian are liberators or occupiers of the Ukraine, I see these criteria used, and by both sides!

This makes absolutely no sense to me.

In fact, I strongly believe that the choice of being Ukrainian, Russian or both (yes, that is a choice!) depends on each individual person.  Period.

But here I want to add something crucial: having to make such a personal choice is not specific or unique to the Ukrainians, all Russians also face the same question too!

I submit that, objectively, the “Russian” 5th column and the Atlantic Integrationists are, de facto, not Russians.  Why do I say that? Because 1) they serve foreign masters and 2) they seek to harm Russia.  And I don’t care how their actions are packaged (heck, Navalnyi tried really hard to impersonate a nationalist!).

Thus, to “be Russian” means, in my opinion, that you have made a deliberate choice by identify with, and become part of, the Russian civilizational realm.

Put simply: you cannot be Russia and hate Russia.

How many people in what is left of the Ukraine today consider themselves Russian?

I don’t know, and I don’t think anybody else knows either.

But I think that it is fair to say that most people in Russia were shocked by the number of Ukrainians who chose to not only adopt a Ukrainian identity, but even fight and die for it! Many did, sincerely, think of Ukrainians are “brothers”.

Today this “brotherhood” looks increasingly like the “brotherhood” of Cain…

Even more amazingly, most of these Ukronazis don’t even speak Ukrainian properly and mostly speak to each other in Russian.  Some even consider themselves as Orthodox Christians.  Yup, these Russian speakers, many from the central and eastern Ukraine still sing “Батько наш — Бандера, Україна — мати, ми за Україну будем воювати!” (Our Father is Bandera, our mother the Ukraine, we are ready to wage war for the Ukraine).

I would note with some glee that if Bandera is their father, then the Ukraine was born no earlier than the mid-1920s (since Bandera was born in 1909!).  And I won’t even go into the Ukie hallucinations about being “pure Aryans” (as opposed to the Moskals whom they see as Finno-Ugric-Mongols), which is an ideology developed even later 🙂

So, 2163 words later, did we even being to answer the question of whether the Ukrainians are Russians?

No, not really.  And here is why:

Taken by themselves, the terms “Ukrainian” and “Russian” are highly ambiguous.

We know that in the past, many of those whom we call “Ukrainians” today had ancestors who lived and were part of the Russian civilizational realm.  But that does not AT ALL mean that modern Ukrainians want (or even could!) join the Russian civilizational realm, especially since what this realm was, is and will become is also highly complex and even controversial.

Furthermore, I think that we need to pay special attention to what is happening in Russia today: the SMO has had a HUGE impact on the Russian society and that society is quickly and profoundly changing.

That by itself begs the question of what kind of civilizational realm Russia is offering to the peoples of the Ukraine today?

One thing is certain, the Russia of, say 2023-2025 will be profoundly different from the Russia of 2000-2022.  First, the Russian ultimatum to the West of 2021 then the 2022 SMO have truly revolutionized (in a literal sense) Russia:  5th columnists and assorted liberals have fled by the thousands (mostly to Poland, Israel and the three Baltic statelets), the Atlantic Integrationist have either given up or are keeping a very low profile. Foreign agents (folks paid by foreign interest) must now register, are listed as such, and can be fined or even imprisoned for breaking Russian laws (finally!).

Russia has also completely and categorically rejected the entire Woke ideology promoted by the Hegemony worldwide.

Most importantly, the reality of a AngloZionist Empire which wants to subjugate, colonize, enslave and break-up Russia has now become pretty hard to ignore.  In fact, this war (against the collective West, not just a few Ukronazis!) is as much an existential war for Russia as WWII, so those Russians who complain about the lack of Spanish jamon serrano in Russia stores need to wake up and compare their current “hardships” with what their parents and grandparents suffered during WWII (besides, you can still find Spanish jamon serrano in Russia, just at a higher price than before; there are also superb local substitutes!).

Here I want to express my deepest thanks to the US Neocons, EU lemmings, NATO Nazis, the Latin Papists and all the other Russia-haters who have generated one of the biggest hate-wave in human history and who have now FORCED all Russians into a basic, yet vital, choice: resist or perish.

Unlike the folks in the West (until recently) and unlike the folks in the Ukraine (again, until recently), many Russian people have gradually switched their mode thinking from “peacetime” to “wartime”.  In fact, I would even argue that the so-called “Russian defeats” in Bucha, Kharkov or Kherson have only poured more fuel onto the raging fire of Russian anger: in February of this year very few Russians would have supported to switch off the lights in the entire Ukraine.  But by late summer, they were DEMANDING it!

So, the next time you hear about “Russian defeats” consider the following:

  1. the massive wake-up effect these “defeats” have had on a (rather spoiled) Russian society
  2. the comparatively minuscule price paid by Russia for these tactical retreats (economy of force maneuvers really)  and
  3. the huge costs of these “victories” for the NATO side

and decide for yourself if Putin is weak and indecisive or very smart and cunning 🙂

Nobody really knows what Russia will look like in 2023-2024-2025 etc.  So nobody really know what kind of “Russian civilizational realm” the SMO is “offering” to the people of the Ukraine.  It is therefore impossible to ascertain whether Ukrainians (which Ukrainians anyway, they are still a diverse group!) will ever become Russians again or not. Some probably will.  Many will probably won’t.

One thing for me is axiomatic: Russia should not occupy even a single square meter of “Ukrainian” land if that land is mostly populated by Ukronazis.  In fact, I see no need to “go to the Polish border” or any other such grand plans.  Yes, NATO might well not give Russia any choice (just as NATO forced the SMO upon Russia!), but then I hope for a swift “in and out”.  Russia should only free those who want to be freed.  Period.  The rest she can either ignore (if they leave Russia alone), or kill (if they threaten Russia).

Does Russia want/need millions of Ukronazis inside her borders?  Nope!

Can Russia afford to pay for the destruction of country 404?  Nope!

Do Russian authorities really want to be in charge of not only pensions and social programs, but also law and order in a land populated by (armed!) people who hate Russia with a passion?  Nope!

But I do agree, fully, that Banderastan needs to be fully demilitarized and denazified.

The former can be achieved without having to put forces on every square meter of the Ukraine while the latter will happen as a natural consequence of the former: if all you got if police and SWAT forces, what is the point of playing Nazi or talking about “liberating Crimea next year”?  And if some residual Ukronazis want to read Mein Kampf, and can stay awake while reading it, then let them.  Who cares?

And then there are population movements.  MILLIONS have left for the EU and MILLIONS have left for Russia.  MILLIONS have also “left” when Crimea and the LDNR joined Russia.  And now that the lights are out, MILLIONS more are leaving (and only 20% plan to return according to Ukrainian estimates).  Add to this the 100’000 KIA of Ursula von der Lugen, multiply it by a safe factor 2 and we probably already have 200’000 KIA and, therefore, about 300’000-400’000 wounded in action.  True, “Ze” & Co. can continue to mobilize wave after wave after wave of civilians, and NATO can even get most of them through some sort of basic training (including advanced training for some), but that is not a sustainable strategy: Russia has many more artillery shells than bodies the Ukrainians, Poles, Brits and all the other crazies can throw into the Russian meat grinder.

[Sidebar: you might wonder what the current US Neocon plan is.  Simple: to get as many Ukrainians killed as possible and then accused Russia of genocide and to ruin the EU economies to remove a competitor.  BTW – Plan A was to attack the LDNR, trigger an overthrow of Putin, place a puppet in power and dismember Russia.  That plan failed.  So what we see today is the USA’s Plan B, executed by NATO and a few megalomaniacal idiots with imperial phantom pains (UK+PL not to mention them).]

One more point: this all also applies to Belarus, Kazakhstan and all the other Russian limitrophes.  So far, not single one of them has shown the capability of being a viable, stable state.  ALL of them have chosen what some call “multi-vectorness”, that is: you beg Russia for protection and the USA for money.

Does Russia needs such “friends” or “allies”?

Are Iran, China or even Algeria not infinitely better friends and allies by any measure?

I say that they all these limitrophes get their act together and make a basic choice because if there is one thing which the Euromaidan has proven beyond reasonable doubt that is that the West will never allow any country to be a good neighbor or partner to both the West and Russia.

Now, especially following the wave of total hatred against all things Russian in the West, this obligation to chose one side or another has become a fact of life for at least as long as the (already dead) AngloZionist Empire maintains its (still very real) momentum and its ability to suborn the comprador elites ruling over countries with no sovereignty or agency (the entire EU for starters).  This is why both Russia and China seek a multi-polar world in which all countries are truly sovereign and the relations between these countries determined by the rule of international law.

Conclusion:

This is not about the Ukraine and Russia.  This is about a full reorganization of our entire planet, including the international trade and finance, political alliances and cultural/spiritual values.

The following two images sum it all up nicely I think.

Right now, both Russia and the Ukraine are moving targets undergoing tremendous changes.  And I am not saying that Russians and Ukrainians cannot be brothers or even be one nation again.  All I am saying is that making such an assumptions would be extremely dangerous and costly.

Somewhere, further down the road, there could be a Ukraine and a Russia living in a not too comfy relationship like, say, Pakistan and India today, but with a fully demilitarized Ukraine (nevermind one threatening Russia with nukes, which both Pakistan and India have, so that parallel only goes so far).  I am pretty sure that the Poles will bite off a chunk of the rump-Banderastan, and maybe the Hungarians too.  Finally, I consider it very likely that by one way or another, Russia will liberate the Ukrainian coast and lift the current blockade of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR) were about half a million Russian citizens live.  So you can pretty much visualize what the Ukraine will look like when then Russian decide to stop.

But, when all is said and done, it will be for the people of the Ukraine to decide which civilizational realm they want to embrace.  Russia should not liberate those who embrace their slavery.

Andrei

Israel agrees to fund ‘strategic materials’ for Ukraine as US weapons supply shrinks: Report

Tel Aviv is also allowing NATO members to supply Ukraine with weapons systems containing Israeli components, after the White House called on them to ‘team up’ with the west against Russia

 November 18 2022

(Photo credit: Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters)

Desk-ByNews

Israel has allowed NATO member states to provide Ukraine with weapons that contain Israeli-made components and has funded the delivery of “strategic materials” to Kiev, under pressure from the White House, according to an exclusive report by Haaretz.

Citing three senior European diplomatic officials, the report alleges that several weeks ago, US officials pushed Israeli authorities to “team up with NATO and the west in the struggle against Russia.”

Specifically, Washington wanted Tel Aviv to supply Ukraine with anti-aircraft batteries, as the US is reportedly “running low” on some high-end weapons systems and ammunition to transfer to Kiev.

According to US officials that spoke with CNN, after nine months of funding hostilities, the Pentagon is seeing its stockpiles “dwindle.” As such, Washington redoubled its push to have its allies fill in the gaps, allowing the war machine to march forward undisturbed.

But after talks between US and Israeli officials, Tel Aviv instead agreed to fund the delivery of “strategic materials,” with the approval of outgoing Prime Minister Yair Lapid and Defense Minister Benny Gantz.

In order to do this, Israel transferred several million dollars to an unidentified NATO member state that is “deeply involved in supplying military equipment to Ukraine.”

The unnamed country used the Israeli funds to purchase the “strategic materials” for Ukraine, in a scheme reminiscent of Poland’s recent role as a middleman to acquire Israeli anti-drone systems for the Ukrainian military.

While Hareetz claims to have knowledge of what the “strategic materials” actually are, they have refused to identify them at the request of their anonymous sources, likely to prevent a retaliatory response from the Kremlin.

In addition, the Israeli defense ministry has reportedly “eased its guidelines and agreed that NATO members such as the UK could supply Ukraine with weapons systems containing Israeli components.”

Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky has repeatedly pleaded with Israel to supply his country with weapons, including the Iron Dome missile defense system. Israel – which depends on diplomatic ties with Moscow to illegally bomb Syria – has officially refused.

Russia has issued stern warnings to Israel against supplying weapons to Ukraine. But despite this, on several occasions, Tel Aviv has not only openly backed what Moscow calls the “neo-Nazis” in Ukraine, but many Israelis have flocked to join the Ukrainian army as mercenaries.

A few headlines about civilizational values and some week-end music

October 28, 2022

Source

As I now often do, I like to open the discussion with a few headlines:

  1. German man fined over letter ‘Z’
  2. Romanian defense minister resigns after Ukraine comments
  3. RT suspends host after ‘disgusting’ remarks about Ukrainian children

Let’s take a closer look.

In the first case, we have the “western value” what is usually known as “freedom of speech” which is something which only exists in the AngloZionist Hegemony (at least according to President Brandon and his summit for democracies).

In the second case, we have another “western value” usually known as “we stand for peace”.  It is also known as “a bad peace is preferable to a good war” and even “diplomacy is always better than war”.

In the third case, we have a clear example of how the “Pioootin regime” cracks down on dissent and free speech.  That in this case this speech was shockingly stupid and hateful makes no difference.  Why?  Because “it is only good when we do it”.  Besides, Anton Krasovsky was suspended for doing that which both the Ukronazi and the AngloZionist propaganda does 24/7: spew hateful idiocies.  Maybe he is “one of us” after all?

Seriously, what we see here are the clear contours of two different civilizational realms which have nothing in common with each other and whose values are mutually exclusive.

In the meantime, the “warriors of light” (aka the Ukronazis, that is how they refer to themselves) are busy shooting almost exclusively at (ex-Ukrainian, now Russian) civilians pretty much along the entire frontline.  The logic here is purely Anglo tactics: “we had to destroy the village in order to save it”.  Makes sense!  At least to them…

In the meantime, the clocks are ticking.  The political clock for the US elections, the economic clock for the EU’s social and economic collapse and, of course, the winter coming closer with each passing day.  If the Neocons want to pull off some of their usual tricks, chances are that at least some of them might decide that “it is now or never”.

Let’s do two more headline.  How about this:

What a combo, no?  Western “logic” at work I suppose.

Is that any wonder that, in our last headline for today, Putin has now declared that:

By the way, Putin is wrong, the US very much still has two things it can offer the world: a nuclear holocaust and the LGBTQ+++++ ideology.  You know, real “western values”!

So, here is the choice for our poor planet:

In spite of it all, I wish you all an excellent week-end!

Andrei

***

I have a confession to make: I don’t like Blues and I never liked this type of music.  Sorry!  To each his own, Blues is really not my thing.  However, there are always exceptions.  In my case, only two, and they are not quite typical of Blues, I would call that “Blues plus” :-).  Anyway, I leave you with my two absolute favorite Blues in the hope that you will enjoy them too!

Gary Moore – “Still Got the Blues” (I often tear up when I hear this songs, it really touches me)

Led Zeppelin – “Since I Have Been Loving You”

A few thoughts about the “dirty bomb” thesis and the role of hatred

October 25, 2022

First, is it even possible?

The answer is yes, absolutely.  There is enough (non-weapons grade) spent civilian nuclear reactor fuel to get enough radioactive materials.  Much more importantly, there is plenty of “know how” amongst Ukrainian scientists and engineers.  Besides, bringing in radioactive materials or specialists is something the AngloZionist Hegemony could do.  Did I mention plenty of starry-eyed Ukronazi politicians daydreaming on camera about how to nuke Russia and kill as many Russians as possible?

Quick reminder: a “dirty bomb” does not set-off a nuclear detonation but, instead, uses a conventional explosive to spread radioactive materials.

How big does such a bomb have to be?  The bigger the better since the bigger the more materials will spread.  That is also a problem, however, since that means delivering a large payload to the place you want it to go off.  Here I see three basic options:

  • Set off the dirty bomb behind Russian lines
  • Set off the dirty bomb near the line of contact
  • Set off the dirty bomb in Ukronazi occupied territory

Each of these options have serious drawbacks.

If the first case, how do you get, say, a truck similar to the one blown up on the Crimean Bridge, to somewhere near Kherson or elsewhere?  Putin has passed a set of decrees which now gives the Russian security organs a solid legal foundation to conduct extensive security operations and take many actions they could not before.  So would it be possible?  Maybe yes, but not easy.

Setting off the bomb somewhere near/along the line of contact risks having the delivery vehicle (truck, APCs, etc.) detected by the Russian C4ISR and blown up.  Of course, the US/NATO would blame Russia, but this begs the question of why Russia would ever use a dirty bomb considering that 1) Russians have plenty of regular tactical nuclear weapons and 2) such an attack would make no military sense.  Also, an attack near the front my result in a MH-17 like screw-up where the crime scene is under Russian control and not, as hoped for, Ukronazi.

Which leaves option three.  Blow up that nuclear bomb in a Ukronazi occupied city or town and declare that this is part of a “ethnic cleansing of the proud Ukrainian nation by the Rooski hordes” and then switch into a Srebrenica-like mantra and chant “genocide! genocide! genocide!” until the hatred of Russia reaches the needed intensity.

Of course, this begs the question of why, if the Russians wanted to genocide the Ukrainians, they would use a rather ineffective device (a dirty bomb’s main “quality” is the panic it induces) when they have everything they need to obliterate not only the Ukraine, but the entire West?

But then, the target audience for such a dirty bomb would be the doubleplusgoodshiteaters (to paraphrase Orwell) in the West who “bought” 9/11, MH17, Skripal, Ghouta, Viagra in Libya, Racak, Srebrenica and the list goes on and on and on.

So the answer is definitely “yes, it is possible”.

The second question is why? what would be the purpose of such a dirty bomb explosion?

Here we need to understand that the Hegemony and Russia have been fighting two completely different wars.  For the Hegemony the war against Russia, started in 2013, has always been about optics, PYSOPS, PR and propaganda.  Hence the constant flow of idiotic, mostly self-evidently false, “information” fed to the doubleplusgoodshitheaters which swallowed that nonsense because it 1) comforted them in their mental representation of the world and 2) made them feel good about still being part the Master Race.  In sharp contrast, Russia was conducting a SMO trying really hard to minimize civilian casualties or touching the Ukraine’s infrastructure which she will now has no choice but expand into something much more akin to a regular combined arms operation.  But even that is not crucial, the crucial thing is this:

==>>NATO is losing, and they know it, so they are freaking out<<==

Until you can wrap your mind against this reality you will never understand the actions of the classes ruling the Hegemony!

[Sidebar: right now, NATO simply does not have the forces needed to attack Russia with any hope of success.  One single Airborne Brigade Combat Team won’t make *any* difference here.  And even if the US decides to go to a full mobilization (which is really impossible, good luck with that!), it would have to bring those forces to Europe.  And even if the US can bring in, say, 1’000’000 million men, it will be far easier for Russia to mobilize, say, 3’000’000 men in response.  Then what?  And did I mention that as soon as the US ships set sail, Russia will obliterate any ports and facilities expecting to receive the US forces.  Try this: take the full Polish, 3B, Romanian and Ukronazi armed forces, then add the FULL 101st and 82nd and what do you get?  A multinational (“combined”) force which was never designed to operate in such a convoluted way, especially against the better-than-peer united military under a single command! And I won’t even go into such thorny issues as assembly points, maneuver, logistics, air defenses, etc.  As I have said, this is all optics, optics and more optics, nothing more]

While zombies like Brandon and his “genius” VP are clueless about any of that, there must be at least a few folks in the Pentagon or the letter soup agencies who understand the simple fact that the way things look now, the Hegemony has three options:

  • Be defeated
  • Declare victory and leave (same deal, just with a tiny fig leaf for modesty)
  • Commit suicide by attacking Russia directly

Not very good perspectives.  So here is one more: how about creating total chaos and hope that something advantageous comes out of it?  In other words, while setting off a dirty bomb will do nothing in purely military terms (it sure won’t stop the Russian military), it will create such a huge political reaction that the current situation will turn into total chaos, panic, rumors, lies, etc.

To the demented minds of the Neocons, total chaos would look better than total defeat, right?

Yes, I know, nobody with half a brain will ever sincerely believe that the Russians did it.  But if past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior, I would submit that there will always be enough doubleplusgoodshitheaters in the Hegemony to believe literally *anything* no matter how self-evidently stupid and preposterous that *anything* is.

We do, after all, live in a society were nobody teaches how to think anymore (schools just make kids dumber and dumber) and the vast majority of people still reply on legacy corporate propaganda machine to get what they think is “information”.  Not to mention that on a psychological and spiritual level, we live not only in a post-Christian society, but even a post-Truth society in which true and false have simply lost any objective meaning other than “like it” or “I don’t like it”.  We could even call this a “post-reality” society!

The bottom line is this: at this point in time, NATO needs any distraction or, even better, as much chaos as possible to change the narrative and hope to use that distraction to regroup and try to find an out from the abject defeat NATO is facing in the Ukraine.

So don’t seek a military rationale for a dirty bomb attack, look ONLY for optics.

What else could the Hegemony try to do to delay the inevitable?

The most often mentioned options are:

  • Blow up a damn and put thousands of people into a flood-zone
  • Rain a huge number of missiles at Kherson or any other liberated major city
  • More diversionary/terrorist attacks inside Russia

Again, the goal here would not be any real military advantage, but the only two things NATO is really interested in now:

  • Optics (the Ukrainians are winning! the Ukrainians are winning!  The Ukrainians are winning!)
  • Chaos (both as a means and as a goal in itself)

By the way, there are plenty of folks in Russia who fully realize that the Hegemony is “losing it”.  For example, there are discussions on the Russian media about whether Putin should fly to Indonesia for the G20 summit.  Why?  Because some are saying that attacks on the NS1/NS2 and Crimea Bridge have shown that Neocons which run the Hegemony are capable of anything, including trying to assassinate Putin.  This would be an especially attractive option if it could be done with some (even thin) “plausible deniability”.

Truth be told, Russia is still, alas, a “one man system”, meaning that as of today, Putin is still totally irreplaceable.  Just for that one reason, I would recommend he stay in Moscow for the foreseeable future.

Do I hear somebody saying “oh come on! they are not that crazy!” (whomever the “they ” refers to).  So we need to conclude and ask this question:

Are they really that crazy? or the role of hatred in this war

I think that this the wrong question to ask.  The real question is are “they” that hate-filled and evil?

And here the absolutely YES, no doubts about it.  None.

Here I have to explain something which most non-Russians or non-Ukrainians will find very hard to believe: the modern (as opposed to the historical) Ukrainian self-identity is entirely built around hatred.  First and foremost, the modern Ukronazis hate Russia and everything Russian.  Which makes sense, since the Ukrainian national identity currently has no positive contents/value, it the more anti-Russian you are, the more Ukrainian that makes you.  Your ethnicity, mother tongue, place of residence, etc. make absolutely no difference.  And this is why even former “heroes of the Ukraine” (such as Nadezhda Savchenko or Vyacheslav Boguslaev) have been arrested for “treason” (along of many THOUSANDS all over the country!).

Traditionally, Ukronazis also hate Jews, Poles and pretty much everybody else (hence their saying about “drowning Poles and Jews in Moskal blood”).

To repeat: the modern Ukronazi identity is based on hatred.  Hatred is not a feature of that identity, it is its core component (see here and here for a historical discussion of this).  Just see how the Ukrainian and Nazi ideologies are brought together and fused in this very famous Ukrainian song:

Original UkrainianEnglish translation
Батько наш — Бандера, Україна — мати,Ми за Україну пiдем воювати!Bandera is our father, the Ukraine our mother, we will fight for the Ukraine

While hated is a very bad advisor in most cases, it is very energizing.  It also give you the kind of blind courage which can make you volunteer for suicide missions.  European Imperialism, born of the Crusades, was also born of hated.  And, of course, the Judaic/Zionist supremacist and terminally narcissistic worldviews are also born from the hatred of the “other”.  Do I need to mention that rabbinical “Judaism” (pharisaic talmudism) is nothing but an anti-Christianity while the Latin heresy is nothing but an anti-Orthodoxy?

I would argue that hatred is the glue which holds together the entire AngloZionist Hegemony.  And the most hated target of this Hegemony is, of course, the Orthodox and never-conquered Russia and what she represents in the modern world.

I won’t tell you here what I think Russia stands for or, even more interestingly, what she might stand for in the future, that will be for a future analysis, but what I can tell you right now is that there is (almost) no anti-Ukrainian hatred in Russia.  And I don’t just mean from public figures.  For example, I recently watched a pretty well made Russian movie about the war in the Donbass entitled “The Best in Hell”.  The movie basically shows a 2 hour assault by Russian forces (called “white” in the movie) against 4 Ukrainian (called “yellow” in the movie) held buildings.  What is amazing is that both sides are shown as courageous, determined, soldiers.  None of the Hollywood tricks to “show the bad guy” (ugly faces, evil grins, vicious inclinations, etc.) are used.  In fact, I am personally very much bothered by what looks like an “equal” sign this movie places between both sides whom I see as morally as different as can be!  But the point here is this: in spite of two hours of nonstop boom! boom! and bang! bang! (as action movies go, this is a pretty good one) hatred is conspicuously absent from this movie.  And that is just one example.  Did you know that in Crimea Ukrainian is still an official language?  Most amazingly, the Russians never produce the kind of collective orgasm which the Ukronazis (and their Western patrons) engage in as soon as any terrorist act (be it destroying the water supply to Crimea or the murder of Dugina) hits Russians.

The following few are just examples of the kind of rabid hated the Ukronazi identity is shaped around:

Logo of the Ukrainian military intelligence service: notice where the dagger points.

This (ISIS-inspired) charming pastoral scene is the Ukronazi idea of a bright future for the Kharkov region

Two “proud” Ukronazis take selfies before a planned Ukronazi stamp to commemorate the (failed) attack on the Crimea Bridge. Welcome to Banderastan!

Banderastan is a completely hatred-saturated society.

So is most the entire collective West (aka “Zone A”)

So is every Neocon out there.

In sharp contrast, hatred plays almost no role at all in Russian society.

Disgust with the Ukronazis?  Sure! Contempt for the West?  Yes, absolutely.  But rejoicing in Ukrainian suffering or losses?  Hatred for the (real, historical) Ukrainian culture and language?  Nope, hardly ever (there are, as always, a few nasty nutcases everywhere, including Russia, though most Russian nutcases hate Russia more than the West anyway).

In fact, I would argue that they all hate Russia even more because Russia does not hate them back.

Conclusion: yes, they are capable of absolutely everything

There is no doubt in mind mind that if the Ukronazis could use real nukes against Russia they would.  Zelenskii himself said so much.  As did others.  In fact, there is absolutely nothing I would put past the satanic souls of the classes which run the Hegemony or the Nazi freaks in Kiev.  That is really bad news on two levels:

  1. They are capable of the worst imaginable atrocity
  2. They are also capable of the dumbest imaginable action

The first is obvious.  But the second one needs a quick expanding upon.  While hatred does give you energy, determination and even courage, it never contributes to a sober and realistic assessment of the situation.  I would even argue that hatred and stupidity go hand in hand.  So we should never use the “oh no, they can’t possibly be THAT stupid” argument because yes, they most definitely CAN be that stupid (just look at the self-defeating sanctions they passed!).

So are we about to see a dirty bomb go off somewhere in the Ukraine or Russia?

My best guess is that no, not after Shoigu and Gerasimov called their western counterparts and spelled out to them what the consequences of such an action might be (the Russians know exactly where this dirty bomb is being designed and manufactured, they know who is doing this work, and they know what the current stage of the project it.  Of course, they could bomb/strike these locations, but that would risk releasing the nuclear material into the air, thus exactly creating the dirty bomb the Nazis are working on.

Now that the Russians have warned the entire planet (via this intervention at the UNSC) nobody besides the doubleplusgoodshiteaters in Zone A will believe that “Russia done it”.  And since the said (and sad) doubleplusgoodshiteaters in Zone A are ALREADY convince that “Pioootin” is the “New Hitler” and Russia is Mordor, convincing them even more is not much of a success.  And while the many comprador colonial administrations in “Zone B” will say exactly what their AngloZionist masters will tell them to, the people in Zone B will quickly realize the idiocy of the entire notion.

So will “they” do it?  I don’t know.  I hope not.  I think not.  But I know that they are capable of anything, including a dirty bomb or any other conceivable atrocity (including biowarfare, by the way).

Nothing can be built on hatred, at least nothing sustainable.  But hatred is a fantastic source of destruction, capable of inflicting colossal damage in too many forms to count.  Russia wants to build a stable and safe Eurasian continent as part of a multi-polar world.  The Hegemony just wants to destroy anything standing in its way.  In this sense, it has a huge advantage as destroying is always much easier than building or even preserving something.

So I will simply end with one of my favorite quotes from the Quran: “And the unbelievers schemed [against Jesus]; but God brought their scheming to nought: for God is above all schemers.” (Sura Al-Imran – 3:54).

Amin!

Andrei

MORE ON THE TOPIC:

Will they ever learn? (answer: probably not)

October 11, 2022

Source

Following the attack on the Crimea bridge, the entire Ukronazi Internet plus assorted supporters exploded in a supernova of joy and Schadenfreude: the much hated “Putin bridge” was finally down!  Hurray!!!

How the Ukronazis see their future (not a fake, its 100% real!)

It was also funny to see that once the Ukronazis realized how stupid (and dangerous!) their proud claims that they were the ones who blew up the truck on the bridge, they decided to blame Putin.  So, as per our Ukronazi pals, Putin blew up the “Putin bridge” for some as of yet unnamed purpose, but most definitely an evil one.

Even more hilarious were the hardcore Banderistas à la Aristovich who were celebrating each Russian strike because “now the Russians have one less missile to use”.  Clearly, a war-winning mindset 🙂

In fact, the Russians are so evil that the Europeans have decided to exclude Russia from the investigation about what really happened with NS1 and NS2.  Which makes sense: the EU cannot let Putin know that he blew up his own pipelines. right?  And the fact that Russia is one of the main proprietors of NS1/NS2 does not matter one bit: as always (MH17, Skripal, Navalnyi, etc.) the Russian Snow Niggers need to be treated with the utmost contempt by the European Master Race.  That will convince the Russians to take the Eurolemmings seriously.

“Eurologic” at its best…

But, seriously, away from the la-la land of various Nazi supporters and Russian 6th columnists, most of the traffic on the Crimean bridge was restored in less than 24 hours.  Then came the Russian response: in a quick series of strikes, Russia switched off the electricity over the entire Ukraine, Lvov (the real capital of Banderastan) included.

Compare the two actions and tell me who is winning and who is losing this war 🙂

Of course, the usual gang of “alternatively gifted” Putin critics will scream that this is all too little too late.  As for the Ukronazis, they are already chanting their favorite mantra about “Russia is running out of missiles!  Russia is running out of missiles!“.  A brilliant war-winning strategy for sure!

Those still capable of critical/rational thought will realize that the sheer magnitude and devastating consequences of the Russian strikes is just a signal that Putin is doing what he has been doing since February:

  • Acting unilaterally without any efforts to negotiate (but without rejecting any negotiations should somebody in the West come to his/her senses).
  • Slowly and gradually increase the pain dial not only for the rump Ukraine but also for the entire EU

One more thing: assuming that Russia fired somewhere in the range of 200 missiles (out of stocks having many thousands more) against power stations, communications nodes, railway infrastructure, command posts, field headquarters, transformers, etc. and that this was more than enough to “pull the plug” on a huge country like the Ukraine tells you all you need to know about both the Russian capabilities and the lack of capabilities of Ukronazi air defenses (including old Soviet-era S-300 slamming into the ground the same way US Patriot missiles did during the Gulf War).

By the way – where was the “winning” Ukrainian Air Force?  I am sure that they shot down no less than several hundred missiles and aircraft, right?

Lastly, the Russian strikes have continued for a second day, but the SBU has now banned filming any outcomes from Russian strikes, so there is a lot less footage today.  Still, a lot at the latest map of strikes, it is clear that the entire country was hit hard for a second time.

So will those poor souls who accuse Putin of “indecision” or “weakness” ever learn their lesson and understand WHY and HOW Putin is dialing up the pain dial?

No, of course not.

They are now so personally involved in trashing Putin at all costs that they simply cannot look at reality without losing face.  So they too will double down on their own certitudes even if that means deliberately and systematically ignoring the facts on the ground.  As I have said many times, these folks would rather see Russia and Putin lose than Russia and Putin win.  You could say that they hate Putin more than they love Russia.

Some of these putatively “pro-Russian” folks are sincere, especially in the West, but utterly incompetent and mislead by Russian 6th columnists: what Lenin would have called useful idiots.

Others are clearly plants of the western letter soup.  And, of course, the former have no idea that they are working hand in hand with the latter.

So what comes next?  More of the same, of course: unilateral initiatives on the international scene combined with a further, but gradual, increase of the pain dial.

Which leaves one more actor I want to comment upon: the brainwashed people of the Ukraine who think that celebrating terrorist attacks and constantly threatening and even attacking Russia will bring them a happy future in an ethnically pure Nazi homeland of milk and honey.

I am very sad and sorry to have to say that, but the brains of these people also need to be demilitarized and denazified.  By acting this way they make themselves into legitimate targets.

In many ways, these strikes also serve an educational purpose: to convince the Ukrainian people that the war is not something which will only happen in the faraway Donbass.

This is what this winter will be all about: bringing the reality of war to the rump-Banderastan and to the EU.

Andrei

WHODUNNIT? A Pipeline Mystery (not really)

October 10, 2022

Source

by Eric Arthur Blair

There have been several excellent articles (none in the mainstream media however), forensically examining who was responsible for the sabotage of Nordstream 1 & 2.

Pepe Escobar was first off the bat with his usual brilliant analysis https://thecradle.co/Article/Columns/16307

Ben Norton conducted meticulous research and employed flawless logic

Bryce Greene described how the MSM, with virtually all their sewer outlets acting in unison, immediately accused Russia in mindless knee-jerk fashion

Here is a paraphrased example of one of the most bat shit crazy absurd MSM declarations: “Look how wild and unpredictable Putin is to shoot himself in the foot! Maybe he will shoot you next! Therefore we need to regime change him!”

My aim here is not to rehash all previous information, but to re-organize the main points in a more digestible, coherent summary. It is best to use the well established method of considering Motive, Means and Opportunity to make the optimal judgment:

Motive: The aphorisms of cui bono? and follow the money apply here. The USA from even before Nordstream 2 was built, repeatedly voiced and demonstrated their rabid opposition to it (Obama, Trump, Sleepy Joe, Ned Price, Stinkin’ Blinken, Droolin’ Nuland etc). The crash-test-dummy-in-chief himself is on the record of saying with a smirk that no matter what (even though it was a Russian-German project which had nothing to do with the USA), one way or another it would be stopped…nudge, nudge, wink, wink. The West forced Russia to invade Ukraine in February 2022 (in response to the massive buildup of Ukronazi forces on the border and the >30x ramp-up of Ukronazi shelling of Donbass), just before Nordstream 2 was due to come online. This gave the new oafish Scholz sin-cojones government (possessing less balls than the previous Merkel government) the excuse to refuse pipeline certification. Hardly coincidental timing. In September, just prior to the pipeline explosions, there were widespread public protests in numerous German cities demanding that sanctions against Russia be revoked and that cheap pipeline gas again be bought from Russia. The pipeline explosions seemed to eliminate such a future option. The USA has defacto received a massive financial windfall from the pipeline sabotage (witness Stinkin’ Blinken’s nauseous crowing about this “tremendous opportunity”). Such despicable skulduggery was the ONLY way that super expensive US LNG could be EVER be exported to Europe, because it could NEVER be economically (nor environmentally) competitive with super cheap Russian gas. So much for the USA’s much vaunted practice of “free market” competition, another Orwellian term spewed out like projectile vomitus by them, which is better translated as “rigged Mafioso thuggery” or as Putin called it, “terrorism”.

Russia had zero motive to bomb the pipelines. On the contrary, it was hugely detrimental to their interests, representing the multi-billion dollar loss of built infrastructure, the several hundred million dollar loss of natural gas and the loss of a future bargaining chip which could entice Europe to overturn the anti-Russia sanctions and buy cheap Russian gas again. The fact that the Russians offered to repair the pipes proves that it continues to be in their interest to keep them. Any pundits who claim that Russians had any motive whatsoever to destroy the pipelines are stupid and insane and mendacious beyond belief.

Means: Ukraine probably did not have the means or ability to conduct such an elaborate operation. The USA and Russia both possess the means and expertise to conduct such technically demanding sabotage of an extremely robust pipeline.

Opportunity: Pepe Escobar’s article on this was extremely useful. The explosions occurred in shallow water (~60m) near a Baltic narrow geopolitical “choke point”, a location which probably has the greatest density of sophisticated underwater electronic surveillance sensors anywhere in the world. The idea that any Russian drones or subs could be deployed there without the knowledge of the Danes and Swedes (both being US allies, who are now preventing both the Nordstream AG company and Russia from inspecting the site) is not credible. The US however had ample prior opportunity, including previous underwater military “exercises” conducted nearby, in which drones were deployed supposedly for mine detection practice (can obviously also be used for mine deployment). Even if the Russians did have the opportunity, why would they bother to pursue such a politically risky and expensive and complex task, if all they had to do to stop the gas flowing was to turn off the taps, which they in fact had already done? Blaming Russia makes no sense at all, however far be it from me to accuse the AngloEuroZionist Mainstream Media of making any sense, nor the dumbass consumers of the AEZ MSM of having any sense.

Conclusion: the USA had massive motive, means and opportunity to do the dirty, much more so than any other party under consideration (although collusion with the Danes and Swedes to turn a blind eye was likely, as was possible Polish cooperation). Bombing the pipelines was completely and utterly AGAINST Russia’s interest.

We will never obtain hard evidence regarding this matter, because preventing the Russians from inspecting the site for the first 20 days (at least) post-explosion gives USA/NATO ample opportunity to remove any incriminating hard evidence and to plant false evidence blaming the Russians. Shades of MH17 !!!

Can a proper legal verdict be arrived at based on circumstantial evidence alone? Certainly it can if the evidence is consistent, strong and overwhelming. In any impartial court of law, it would be a slam dunk to conclude that the USA was guilty beyond any shadow of a doubt. The Anglo establishment have themselves not hesitated to condemn and imprison people based on flimsy or no evidence whatsoever, as in the case of Julian Assange. We have overwhelming robust objective evidence to condemn the USA for the pipeline sabotage. Only the most irredeemably stupid and deceitful moron could conclude otherwise (unfortunately the AEZ MSM is full of them – they are called supine presstitute stenographers). Any fake “evidence” planted post hoc by the USA/NATO on site, to try to incriminate Russia, should be thrown out of court.

After the gas had settled, so to speak, it turned out that Nordstream 2B was undamaged and can still potentially be used to deliver some gas to Germany. Furthermore the other three pipes may be potentially fixable, which Russia has offered to do. Needless to say the Euro-lapdogs of the USA are refusing those options.

Perhaps we may soon witness yet another mysterious pipeline explosion of NS2B by “parties unknown”…nudge, nudge, wink, wink.

EAB

Zelensky, NATO explain how Ukraine could become a ‘big Israel’

September 20, 2022 

Source: The Grayzone

NATO’s think tank, the Atlantic Council, exhibits “Israel’s” political model as an ideal model for the future of Ukraine – a model based on hyper-militarization and fascism.

Zelensky, NATO explain how Ukraine could become a ‘big Israel’

By Al Mayadeen English 

The Atlantic Council, a NATO-backed think tank, is openly proposing that Ukraine embody a more enhanced version of the Israeli political model, based on hyper-militarization, intelligence superiority, and technological innovation.

In other words, Ukraine is crystallizing into its most fascist form, a blow to the so-called claims of “democracy” that NATO and Western powers are marketing.

The paper, titled “Zelenskyy wants Ukraine to be ‘a big Israel.’ Here’s a road map.,” was published in early April, and is written by Daniel Shapiro, former US ambassador to “Israel,” who has worked for Israeli intelligence and enjoys close ties with Israeli think tanks. Shapiro is currently an Israeli spy-tech consultant.

This suggestion was not born from a vacuum. Within the same timeframe, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky divulged to reporters that in the future, he’d like Ukraine to be “a big Israel,” after which NATO released the article which roughly explains how the model could be executed.

Zelensky articulated that Ukraine would never be like Switzerland (as of February 24), which has remained neutral when it came to regional conflicts. Rather, he said: “we will definitely become a ‘big Israel’ with its own face.”

The Jewish president, who paid no heed to his neo-Nazi battalions (quite ironically), went on to explain what a “big Israel” would look like:

“We will not be surprised that we will have representatives of the Armed Forces or the National Guard in all institutions, supermarkets, cinemas — there will be people with weapons,” Ukraine’s president said, predicting a bleak existence for his citizens. “I am sure that our security issue will be number one in the next ten years.”

The future of Ukraine, according to Zelensky, will not be “absolutely liberal, European.”

Shapiro explained that the “two embattled countries share more than you might think.” The vision to create a ‘big Israel’ out of Ukraine, according to the former ambassador, would be to militarize Ukraine so much to push US interest in Eastern Europe against its rival, Russia.

Although in 2018, 40 human rights activists petitioned the Israeli High Court of Justice to stop arming Ukraine after Azov Battalion members were caught brandishing Israeli-made weapons, the military entity has been sending mercenaries to Ukraine and providing weapons since February.

Zelensky has cried anti-Semitism in recent months, citing that “Putin’s war” is a war on Ukrainian Jews, although they make up less than 0.5% of the population. However, the Ukrainian president seems very much unfazed by the openly Nazi battalions in this country. Perhaps the two do, indeed, have very much in common.

Read more: Zelensky’s rallying cry for Jews: His last shot in a losing war

The ground-breaking model 

The proposed model, first and foremost, suggested increasing security – in other words, ramping up surveillance and intelligence – in Ukraine. He explains that the basis for security in “Israel” is that the entirety of the population participates.

“Civilians recognize their responsibility to follow security protocols and contribute to the cause,” Shapiro wrote of Israeli settlers. “Some even arm themselves (though under strict supervision) to do so. The widespread mobilization of Ukrainian society in collective defense suggests that the country has this potential.”

To draw the parallel, this idea aligns with Zelenksy’s vision: “People with weapons,” as the president explained, will be existent in every aspect of civilian life.

Shapiro furthermore seconded Israeli “high-tech innovation” in military and intelligence, which are highly assisted and backed by the US and citizens’ taxpayer money as Washington allocates billions for the settler-colonial regime on a yearly basis.

Read next: A secret Israeli unit trains Ukrainians to fight Russians: Yedioth Ahronoth

It is striking that Zelensky undermined the role of foreign aid in cementing “Israel’s” feet in settler-colonial activities, explaining – either naively or purposely – that “Israel will defend itself, by itself—and rely on no other country to fight its battles.” 

Ukraine, to become “Israel 2.0”, “will need to upgrade its intelligence services”, as “Tel Aviv” “has invested deeply in its intelligence capabilities to ensure that it has the means to detect and deter its enemies—and, when needed, act proactively to strike them.”

Shapiro would know. In 2017, the former ambassador joined the Israeli spy company NSO as an independent advisor, where he assisted clients with the evaluation of Pegasus packages. The clients include multiple European Union nations and the Saudi monarchy.

Read next: US defense company in talks over buying NSO’s Pegasus

Shapiro has also worked for WestExec Advisors, which is a consulting firm founded in 2017 by current Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Before Biden’s election, Shapiro did some media work after the Democratic Party’s platform removed language opposing land annexation in the occupied West Bank in Palestine.

NATO, furthermore, would benefit greatly from a hyper-militarized Ukraine. Major weapon corporations in the US are core donors to the alliance and their bodies, including the Atlantic Council. Companies include Lockheed Martin, Boeing and Raytheon. Gregory J. Hayes, the Raytheon Chairman, is on the Atlantic Council’s international advisors board.

Raytheon and Lockheed Martin’s anti-tank Javelin missiles have been called the “symbol of Ukraine’s resistance”, with Washington providing over 8,500 missiles to Ukraine since the beginning of the war.

Read next: Pentagon awards Raytheon, Lockheed $311mln to replenish Javelin stocks

If Zelensky were to really make his dream come true, there will need to be behemoth-size investments into Europe’s poorest country for the working class, with hysterical weapon and surveillance tech investments… just like “Israel.”

Who will run out of resources first?

September 15, 2022

Today I will keep it very short using my favorite bullet-style points:

  • By most credible accounts, the recent Ukronazi+NATO attack in the Kharkov area was even more costly in KIA/MIA, wounded and lost hardware than the attack towards Kherson.  The combined losses from these attacks are staggering.
  • Yet there are all the signs that the Ukronazi+NATO forces are preparing for even more such attacks.
  • The Ukronazi+NATO seem happy to trade human lives for territorial gains, no matter how small or how irrelevant that territory is.
  • The Russians seem happy to trade space and time to protect the lives of their soldiers and equipment.
  • We could say that the Ukronazi+NATO are trading bodies for shells.

Let’s remember the two goals set by Putin for the SMO: denazify and demilitarize.  Both of these goals are human-focused, not terrain-focused.  In other words, if a tactical-level withdrawal allows the Russian to kill scores of Ukronazi+NATO personnel and destroy their equipment, they will gladly accept the trade.

The other goal was to protect the LDNR.  Kherson is not part of the LDNR.

Territory can be reconquered, equipment is hard to replace, especially complex weapon-systems.

And soldiers cannot be resurrected.

It is absolutely clear that Ukronazi+NATO are “betting the farm” into these offensives.  Not only is the coming winter a major threat for them, but the political chaos in the EU and the US this fall and winter means that now is the time to try has hard as possible to conceal the magnitude of the disaster for the Ukronazi+NATO.

So, most of what is taking place now can be summed up in this simple question: who will run out of resources first: the Ukronazi+NATO in terms of manpower and equipment or the Russians in terms of firepower (mostly artillery, missiles and airpower)?

I think that the answer is obvious.

Andrei

The persecution of Graham Phillips by the UK government

September 06, 2022

Dear friends

About a month ago I wrote about the truly Orwellian persecution of the journalist Graham Phillips by the UK government and I did a short Q&A with Graham himself.  Graham has sent me s number official document regarding his case, I concatenated them into one PDF which I will now share with you:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1nf-QOTN1H4feYcekUeKVEMorPEF_7maI/preview

This is a scary, but very interesting read.  One thing is very very clear: Graham’s “crime” is that he dared to disagree with the official narrative: for pages and pages the UK officials denounce Graham for daring to call the Ukronazis “Nazis”.  He is also guilty of “obfuscating” the false flag massacre in Bucha.  All of which makes him a “involved person”.  Here is just one “great” example of how these folks think: (excerpt from the document)

Summary: Guardian article which offers a profile on Graham PHILLIPS. It notes that PHILLIPS has claimed that ‘Ukraine is run by Nazis and the massacre of Ukrainians in Bucha was staged’. The Guardian is a highly credible source.

Ain’t that just beautiful?  Graham says that the Nazis in Kiev are Nazis and Bucha was staged.  And The Guardian is a “highly credible source”.  This is the trick which all the western Gestapos have been running for a while now: “leak” to a 100% loyal and Gestapo controlled “highly credible source”, any modern version of the Völkischer Beobachter will do, then built a case against any person daring to challenge the official narrative by, you guessed it, referencing the “credible article” in the “highly credible” Völkischer Beobachter“, and then call it all “open source intelligence” (OSINT) and all the sheep reading the said Völkischer Beobachter will jointly bleat “crucify him! crucify him!” or whatever the lynching slogan of the day might be.

Just read the full thing, it is quite worth it.  Orwell would have been absolutely fascinated to see that the UK has fully adopted his 1984 model and is now openly persecuting people for their ideas and for daring to speak their minds.

If modern journos were not the presstitutes they all are (as the French philosopher Alain Soral likes to remind us: “there are only 2 types of journalists [in the West]: prostitutes and unemployed) they would have to all rise up in horror and demand that this kind of ideological persecution be immediately stopped.  Oh, wait!  I am talking about the same people who “forgot” the vicious persecution of Julian Assange’s by the self-same UK authorities, so why would anybody expect them to speak up on behalf of Graham Philips?  Besides, with all these urgent issues which need to be addressed (LGBTQ+ “rights”, the “Putin inflation”, taking short showers to “stick it to Putin”, the triumph of black actors in white roles, the immense danger presented by schoolgirls in hijabs, the immense danger of a resurgence of “Antisemitism” and how “heroically” the Ukronazis and their brilliant leader “Ze” stand as a thin Nazi line defending Europe and democracy from the evil Rooskie Asiatic hordes which are poised to invade the entire planet, etc.)  there is simply no time to deal with such “petty” issues as journalists persecuted for doing their jobs!

So Alain Soral was wrong: there are not two, but three types of journalists in the West: prostitutes, unemployed and the viciously persecuted ones (Soral, of course, knows this, as he has been crimincally persecuted nonstop for his views).

Truth be told, the UK is definitely the worst and most Orwellian state in the West (I am not even counting the 3B+PU clowns as part of the “West” here).  Things are marginally better in the other EU countries and even in the United States which, at least on paper, still have the Bill of Rights.  That being said, all you need to do to bypass and totally ignore the Bill of Rights in the USA use the expression “national security” and, voilà, you can kidnap, torture, disappear, and basically do anything to anybody, including US citizens.  So while the UK is the worst, it is also the model towards which all of the West follows (and I won’t even mention what the UK will be like with that absolute ignorant imbecile Liz Truss in charge!).

Thank God, Graham Philips is safe for as long as he stays in Russian controlled territories, just like Snowden.  But this does not change the fact that in the UK they want to make him a “unperson“.

Of course, I could conclude here by quoting Martin Niemöller’s famous “first they came…” but I prefer to conclude with another one of my absolutely favorite aphorisms, this one by Yehuda Bauer: “Thou shalt not be a victim. Thou shalt not be a perpetrator. And above all, Thou shalt not be a bystander.  So, please, if you can, especially if you are in the UK, speak up on defense of Graham Phillips and do not allow the British ruling class hide behind your silence when crushing those who dare to speak the truth!

Andrei

PS: also make sure to watch this latest video by Graham Phillipshttp://thesaker.is/liz-truss-vs-graham-phillips-and-the-donbass-truth/

Western Propaganda and its Aftermath

August 31, 2022

Source

by Asia Teacher

As President Zelensky attains celebrity media status, revered by western political leaders and Hollywood’s glitterati all jostling for a photo shoot, let’s not forget the propaganda behind it and the consequences now beginning to emerge.

The western propaganda we’re currently experiencing is nothing new. Today’s President Putin joins yesterday’s Middle East “monsters” as current Ukrainian Nazi militias become “freedom fighters” and the Russians become “Nazis.” Likewise, the previous Middle Eastern terrorist groups became “moderate Islamist’s” but only if they were fighting for a US led NATO in Iraq and Syria. Yet such is the power of belief on an already stupefied majority western population that it’s become factual.

In our upside down world, reality has long vanished to 15% of our western leaders who regard themselves as the “international community.” On August 24th, only 54 countries out of 193 supported a UN resolution which condemned Russia for not stopping its intervention in the Ukraine, which begs the question of why, if the majority population loathe today’s western politicians, do they passionately and often even fanatically believe their every word?

Supplying weapons and financial aid to the Ukraine which enables Russia to get bogged down in an endless war with mounting casualties, coupled with sanctions to bring down Russian middle-class living standards is just another attempt at regime change. Moreover, having failed to control the Middle East oil producers, it has not gone unnoticed that Russia is itself a major gas and oil producer.

Bathsheba Crocker, US Ambassador to the UN warned in the New York Times on February 21st before the incursion occurred that Russia had a ‘hit list’ of people destined for arrest, detention and torture including “vulnerable populations such as religious and ethnic minorities and LGBTQI+ persons.” How she knew that is not explained, but the inclusion of homosexuals as a vulnerable group now appears mandatory in any media story.

From allegations presented as facts by Ukraine’s Human Rights Commissioner Lyudmyla Denisova and picked up by The British Daily Mail and the US New York Times in May, of multiple repeated child rapes and murders near Kiev. Meanwhile, Newsweek also in May ran the headline “Russians Targeting Kids’ Beds, Rooms With Explosives: Ukrainian Bomb Team”; what kind of sick minds dream this up?! Although written in a news format, both headlines carried disclaimers that the content remained unverified. In which case, why report it as news? One assumes that in time these stories will join Saddam’s weapons of mass destruction and the Ghost of Kyiv hoaxes.

The problem with current western propaganda is that it relies on sensationalism and each manufactured story must outdo the last to retain its WOW effect. In today’s world, neighbors Poland and Slovakia propose building an oil “peace pipeline” as opposed to what Polish President Morawiecki refers to as the German Nordstream “war pipeline.” Meanwhile, debate continues to rage over why Russia is shelling itself in the Zaporizhzia nuclear power plant with American made missiles and fragments of US HIMARS missiles found in Yelenovka, where 57 Azov prisoners died and 130 were wounded whilst giving testimony for the upcoming War Crimes trials. Getting rid of the evidence?

Who will western politicians blame if the weapons they’re sending to the Ukraine are responsible for another Chernobyl type incident as inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency arrive at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and before entering suggest the facility be handed back to the Ukrainian authorities. Am I the only one aghast at the thought of a nuclear plant in the hands of the Ukraine armed forces which number Neo-Nazi militia battalions in their ranks?

That the Ukraine is not about freedom and democracy but Russian regime change isn’t a well-kept secret. A year before the 2014 overthrow of Yanukovych, Carl Gershman, Director of US NGO National Endowment for Democracy (NED) had already stated: “Ukraine is the biggest prize … If it could be pulled away from Russia and into the West, Putin may find himself on the losing end not just in the near abroad but within Russia itself.” More recently, on the first of March 1st 2022, a spokesman for the British Prime Minister said, “but the measures [sanctions] we are introducing, that large parts of the world are introducing, are to bring down the Putin regime.” Or as Bruno Le Maire, French Minister of the Economy and Finance stated, “We are going to wage a total economic and financial war on Russia.”

Conversely, the opposite has happened. At the beginning of the intervention the ruble stood at 85 to the dollar. Yet today it’s 61.35; in other words, the ruble is actually strengthening against the dollar. No matter the amount or severity of sanctions, major oil producers, despite what any other calamities befall them, do not go bankrupt.

Yet six months into the incursion, the adverse effects of sanctions on energy and industrial fertilizers are becoming all too visible in the west. Soaring inflation and food prices, record bankruptcies and huge energy price increases as millions of Ukrainian immigrants flood into an already weakened and recession hit Western Europe. Who will blink first?

Although the west is currently in dire social and economic straits, removing President Putin and replacing him with another 1990’s Yeltsin type puppet would be a major boost for the west and Wall Street of course.

In our highly technologically advanced western societies, cheap energy and lots of it is why we exist as first-world societies. The alternative and sustainable green energy myth hasn’t happened as it doesn’t exist. If we take away our lifeblood support, what we’re beginning to experience is a terminal collapse. Despite the political pessimism and hype, when the present situation comes to an end our economies are not going to bounce back, the lost jobs aren’t going to return and inflation will not magically return to near zero. This is it, the final battle of civilizations and personally, I can do without identity politics, the homosexuality agenda, drug and crime epidemics and open borders.

Asia Teacher is a UK citizen, retired teacher of English plus Social and Political Science.

Tons of thanks, a SMO update and some beautiful week-end music!

August 31, 2022

First, my deepest gratitude to you all!

I want to being today’s report by thanking all those of you who have reached out to help me and the blog.  In spite of the hard economic times, many of you have sent donations, offered to volunteer and, last but not least, said prayers for me.  Of course, your donations will help financially, but it is your moral support which most deeply touched me and which give me the courage and determination to keep on fighting this fight, in spite of the apparent futility of taking on an entire obscenely rich and powerful ruling classes which waging merciless warfare on all of mankind.  I wish I could thank each and every one of you personally, but I simply don’t have the material time to do so, so all I can do is thank you all here for your unwavering and kind support!  You are truly the best community any person can hope to have!

Now let’s turn to the latest news next.

The Ukrainian so-called “counter-offensive” in the south:

The biggest news out of the Ukraine is the failure if the much announced Ukrainian “counter-offensive”.  Here are the latest reports from the Russian MoD: (emphasis added)

The enemy suffered losses and was pushed back from Olginka, Thorn Ponds and Arkhangelsk.
A battalion of the 57th Motorized Infantry Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was defeated near the settlement of Sukhoi Stavki. Currently, the destruction of its remains is being completed.
To unblock the AFU units, 12 tanks supplied to the Kiev regime by Poland were transported across the Ingulets River. Some of the tanks were destroyed by the powerful fire action of the Russian troops. Several tanks were blown up in their minefield during a disorderly withdrawal. Only five Ukrainian tanks were able to break back, deep into the territory controlled by the AFU. During two days of unsuccessful attacks on Mykolaiv-Krivoy Rog and other directions, Ukrainian troops lost four combat aircraft: two Su-25, one Su-24 and one MiG-29. Three Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopters were shot down in the air. Russian troops also destroyed 63 Ukrainian tanks, 59 infantry fighting vehicles, 48 other armored combat vehicles, 14 pickups with heavy machine guns and more than 1,700 Ukrainian servicemen.

But this does not tell the full story.  1’700 KIAs might not sound like much, but in reality this is a huge deal for the following reasons:

  • These 1’700 soldiers were supported by armor, artillery and even some aviation and the USA/UK had huge hopes that this much announced “counter-offensive” would yield some good PR.  The Brandon administration is absolutely desperate to show at least something vaguely successful, yet this so-called “counter-offensive” resulted in only a few tactical attacks which brought no tangible results whatsoever.
  • The size of this force shows that this operation was mostly about PR (and not a real counter-offensive!).  The Ukrainians never had a chance, not on the tactical level and, even less so, to develop tactical attack into an operational counter-offensive.  Considering that it took them months to prepare this rather modest operation, this shows how much the Ukrainian armed forces have been degraded over the past months.
  • Even worse for the Nazis and their US patrons is the fact that now the entire southern front just lost a lot of its best soldiers and hardware.  Considering that the Russians are reinforcing their southern forces (see below), this is an especially dangerous development for the regime in Kiev.

Also, 1’700 KIA in one single maneuver is the biggest defeat for the Nazis since 2014, even bigger than the Ilovaisk “cauldron”!

I noticed with absolute dismay that, apparently, the Ukrainians tried one more time.  The result? Another  350 personnel, 31 tanks, 22 infantry fighting vehicles, 18 of other types of armored vehicles, eight armed pickup trucks, and 17 of other types of military vehicles destroyed by Russian artillery and airpower.

This is what is left of the Ukrainian “assault barge”

And today (Thursday) there are report that the Ukrainians tried to seize control of the ZNP.  First they fired over 100 artillery shells.  Then 2 diversionary groups totaling 60 soldiers on two crafts landed near the ZNP.  They were detected and destroyed by the Russian aviation.  Two hours later, the Ukrainians used two barges carrying an entire battalion (200-300 soldiers).  They were detected and sunk.

All that while the IAEA inspectors were already at the nuclear power plant!  (I wonder if they will have the courage to report what they must have seen).

Crucially, it showed, yet again, that all that nonsense coming out of Kiev and the other Nazi capitals in the West is just total, utter and terminal nonsense with no connection to the real world.  None whatsoever.  Hence the mass freakout of the western ruling classes.

And then there is this: CNN confirms that the USA helped the Ukrainians prepare this “counter-offensive”!  Oh wow! Who would have thought 😉  But then, what else could we expect from a US military busy with “increasing its lethality” by “embracing, promoting and unleashing the potential of diversity and inclusion“?

Now, just to clarify: did the Ukrainians take a few villages and positions?  Yes.  Absolutely.  Why?  Because the Russians had absolutely NO reason in the world to do what the Nazis do and “stand immobile to their last breath” in a static defensive line.  So they did the following:

  • Where the Ukrainian attack was weak, they used their infantry and armor to beat them back.
  • Where the Ukrainian attack was strong, they simply moved back, let the Ukrainians advance, and then wiped them off in what can only be called a “turkey shoot” (not to mention a useless butchery).

This is nothing new.  The Russians have done that since the beginning of the SMO.  In every case, the villages or positions the Ukrainians took (and triumphantly presented as a huge “peremoгa” or victory) saw the Ukrainian forces destroyed by Russian artillery, follow by a withdrawal (or total annihilation).

So next time when you hear that the Ukrainians took control of village/location X, always make sure to follow what happens in the next 48 hours and see for yourself if this Ukrainian “victory” then developed into anything meaningful.  As soon as you do that, everything becomes quite obvious.

Western weapon deliveries to the Ukraine

This is one of the biggest canards in this war.  Today, I will deal only with one aspect: the planned delivery of ex-Soviet aircraft to the Ukraine.  Basically, this is utter nonsense.  Like with ANY advanced weapons system, combat aircraft need all of the following things to be effective:

  • They need to be fully integrated into a combined arms operation.
  • They need to be operated by a highly trained crews.
  • They need to be used in sufficient numbers to achieve any meaningful effect, which in the case of the Ukraine means real military airfields, not dirt roads, highways or field refueling stations.
  • They need to be maintained/supported by a complex and advanced supply chain and qualified specialists.

Since none of that can happen, the deliveries of MiG-29s (or any other aircraft, really) to the Ukraine will make for semi-decent PR and that’s about it.  There are even rumors that the US is now training Afghan pilots to train them on ex-Soviet fighters…  Let’s see how many pilots the US and NATO actually can convince to fly these one way missions.

In reality, it takes MANY YEARS to form a capable military pilot, and there is no substitute for this.  So no, even if the US finds enough suicidal pilots to try to fly MiG-29s (or other aircraft) against Russian Su-35S, this will achieve exactly nothing other than marginally slowing down the Russians (who will have to deal with this new threat just like they dealt with all the others Wunderwaffen: HIMARS, M777, CAESARs, etc. etc. etc.).  Even the (so far hypothetical) delivery of, say, F-16s, will make very little difference.  There is no Wunderwaffe, least of all old Soviet kit (even when somewhat upgraded with NATO equipment).

Rumors of a major Russian offensive

Okay, as of right now, this is a rumor, but there is strong evidence of two things happening:

  • The Russians appear to have assembled one (some rumors say two) Army Corps composed of volunteers and equipped with modern weapons.
  • These forces seem to be deployed through and near the city of Rostov-on-the-Don.

Whether these forces were deployed as reserve force in case of a successful Ukrainian counter-offensive (however unlikely) or whether these forces will be used to attack the southern front is anyone’s guess.  In fact, it could be that these forces had and still might have both tasks.  And now that the Ukrainian counter-attack was defeated, they might well be used to move towards Nikolaev along the coast (supported by the BSF) which would put immense pressure on the over-extended and weakened Ukrainian forces.

In this context, I was recently sent a pretty interesting document:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/17RsQ2GgAJVrJ0JqCHTeMOZyMCKHHh2iB/preview

This is a letter from the Mayor of the Siberian City of Omsk who announces that at three battalions of volunteers have been formed in this city alone.  It is reasonable to assume that similar things are happening in most other Russian cities.

Speaking of which, there is another canard which I have to debunk:

Will Russia declare a full mobilization?

The short answer is no.  Unless NATO moves forces into the Ukraine, then all bets are off (but even in that case I doubt that a full mobilization would be needed and, not to mention, rather hard to execute) Furthermore, this question is based on a flawed assumption: that Russia’s so-called “slow progress” is due to lack of manpower (about the “slow progress” see here).  That assumption, in turn,  is based on two major mistakes: the first it conflates overall manpower with manpower available at any specific moment in time on a specific sector of the line of contact.  What matters is not overall numerical superiority, but local superiority, superiority on your main axes of attack/defense.  This is how Ze’s MILLION solider army ended up being defeated with only 1700 KIAs: there never was a million soldiers army anywhere near Zaporozhie in the first place.

Second, the Russians have been fighting this entire SMO with less than 10% of the Russian military and with a 3:1 advantage for the Nazi forces almost everywhere.  You could say that the Ukrainians are fighting a positional war while the Russians are fighting a mobile war, counting on their qualitative superiority (in most fields, with a few exceptions – such as counter-battery radars and squad level need for commercial quad-copters similar to the famous DJI Mavic series, see below – and these limited disadvantages are now being quickly addressed).

Yes, I know, there are some LDNR officials who constantly whine about the fact that Russia is not fighting this war the way they would.  But with all due respect, it is one thing to be a deputy commander of an LDNR battalion and quite another a specialist in the Russian General Staff with several academies and years of command experience under your belt.  Furthermore, the LDNR forces, for all their undisputed heroism, courage and skills do not fight the same war as the Russians.  The LDNR forces are fighting to liberate the Donbass, and they have just recently acquired the kind of capabilities needed to even contemplate an operational level offensive.  In sharp contrast, the Russians are fighting a strategic war against NATO and the US, so it is no wonder that their notions of what ought to be done differ.  Here is just one example:

What about the supposed lack of UAV/drones/quadcopter?  Did/will Russia by UAV from Iran?

The problem here is that UAV/drones/quads come in all sort of sizes, from truly tiny one which you can fit in the palm of your hand, to large, strategic ones with advanced electronics/optoelectronics/EW/etc. and even weapons of various types.  So let’s separate the two.

Example one: a reconnaissance unit from the LDNR forces is tasked with finding out what is happening, or not, behind a small forest.  You can use a relatively cheap and simple, off the shelf, DJI Mavic (even a mini model!), which you can send a kilometer or two over the forest and to take a peek what might be hiding inside/behind the trees.  If you do not have that Mavic, you have to sent a reconnaissance patrol.  Going on such a mission is very dangerous, because not only can the Nazis plant all sorts of mines in the forest and under the leaves/grass, they can also set up an ambush (the Ukrainians are pretty good at that).  So if you are the commander of this reconnaissance unit, you are going to be absolutely furious that the lack of Mavics forces you to send you soldiers into a very dangerous situation, day after day after day.  And if you are young and inexperienced, you are going to blame the Russian military’s procurement system for not sending boxes of Mavics to the LDNR.

So to the question “did the LDNR forces have enough Mavic-type quads before the SMO began?” the answer is “no they did not”.  Once the LDNR officials and their supporters raised a big enough stink over that, volunteers from all over Russia began sending quads to the LDNR and things slowly (especially for those who had to risk their lives every day!) began to improve.  But this never was the “fault” or “lack of care” from the Russian armed forces whose job is very different.

Now the Russian military has exactly *zero* need for Mavic-type quads.  Not only that, but Russia has large stores of all sorts of advanced UAVs (see here for details).  As for the Russian military, it is not in the business of supplying LDNR forces with whatever they might need, it is in the business of fighting a war against the consolidated West, this requires a totally different kind of kit and training than the LDNR forces.

Example two: Russia needs long range UAVs to detect Ukrainian columns on the move, force concentrations, assembly position, battle formations, etc.  The good news is that Russia has plenty of those more advanced UAVs.  These advanced UAVs do not fly 1-8km in distance, but for hundreds of kilometers and their flight time is not counted in minutes, but in tens of hours.  In this kind of warfare, Mavics are totally useless.

Is it possible that Russia might buy some Iranian UAV?

I would say that it is not very likely, but quite possible.  Why?  First, Russia and Iran are (informal but strong) allies and the Iranians would probably love to test their gear in real, modern, warfare conditions (Syria, Iraq or Yemen do not qualify).  Second, the Iranians have superb UAVs, not necessarily better than Russian ones (it really depends on the mission and what the rest of the forces are doing), but very good ones indeed.  Since Russia is flush with cash thanks to the western sanctions, Russia could do worse than purchase an X number of Iranian UAV and use them (or even give them to the LDNR).  Again, I don’t think that this will happen because of a simple problem: the more primitive a UAV is, the more you can use commercial, off the shelf, equipment (this is what the (in)famous Bayraktars are – assembled off the shelf commercial hardware).  But the more advanced a UAV is, the more it needs to be able to “talk” to a lot of highly specialized networks and equipment, most of which are secret to begin with.

[Sidbar: I happen to personally fly both cinematic quads – a DJI Mavic mini – and first-person-view (FPV) acrobatic/freestyle quads and, as a result, even a private civilian like myself can have equipment which could used in a reconnaissance situation like the one I describe above.  This is not different than LDNR forces using family and consumer radios (FRS and GMRS) to communicate, or the purchase of commercial laser rangefinders, GPS/GLONASS/GNSS navigation equipment and the like.  Nowadays recreational and commercial microelectronics are so capable, that you can buy most of what a reconnaissance unit might need online and for relatively cheap.  And if your pockets are deep enough, you even purchase get all sorts of very good thermal imaging systems.  So what the LDNR forces needed the most, is simply money to get all that good stuff.  Some of this is already being built in Russia but, if needed, Russia can get it all from China directly or through Kazakhstan.  For the LDNR the issue was always money, and this is why the Mayor of Omsk is asking for donations at the end of this open letter above]

In sharp contrast to the LDNR forces, the Russian military has plenty of money and capabilities which the LDNR can only dream about, including a high tech military industrial base which dwarfs anything Iran might have.

Conclusion:

Initially, the Russians got absolutely destroyed in the propaganda war, at least that was true during the early months of the SMO.  Now this entire narrative is tanking (as evidenced, for example, this interview of Jeffrey Sachs on Democracy Now! or this video by Tucker Carlson).  Of course, the Neocons and the “extreme center” of the Uniparty (call them Republicrats or Demolicans – same difference) are still in deep denial and they are going through all the usual stages of grief (how is that headline: “German minister vows to back Ukraine ‘no matter what voters think’”?).  My biggest fear is that this hate-saturated narcissistic imbeciles will do something really dumb and trigger a much larger conflict.  The Kremlin is acutely aware of this riks, and this is why the Russians are only using about 10% of their current capabilities (that is before even a mobilization).

Most of the nonsense we now hear about the Ukraine (all the plain silly theories) is now quickly falling apart.  All the hysterics of the Russian 6th columnists (à la Girkin-Strelkov & Co.) have failed to force the Russian General Staff to fight the war like the 6th column would have preferred.  Instead of listening to these “allislosters”, Putin decided to listen to his generals.  What a surprise!

Furthermore, as Putin and others have repeated innumerable times, the SMO is going pretty much according to plan (besides the undeniable mistakes made in specific locations, like moving Russian forces in columns towards the Gostomel airfield without first suppressing the Ukrainian artillery and diversionary forces along the road; but the Kiev faint itself, however, was a total success and it achieved all its goals).  All the recent developments further show that Russia will methodically achieve all of her objectives in the coming months (though the denazification of Europe will, of course, take longer, not to mention the need to denazify the USA itself).

***

Finally, since this will be a long week-end, I leave you again with some beautiful music I love.

First, I want to introduce you to an Argentinian singer and guitarist whom I consider to be the most brilliant musician of traditional Argentinian (gaucho) music: Eduardo Falu.  Listen to this track, the song, entitled “Zamba de la Candelaria“, is absolutely beautiful (as are the lyrics for those who understand Spanish) and his guitar playing is nothing short of stellar (the other two songs in this video are also quite beautiful, I think)

Next, I want to introduce you to one of my absolutely favorite US Jazz/Improvised music group, named Oregon.  In this tune, entitled “Hand in Hand“, you will hear one of their most beautiful, yet understated, compositions.  The way the harmony “moves” here is so poignantly beautiful!  Also, listen to Ralph Towner‘s guitar solo and try to sing the melody over his improvisations, and you will discover a very beautiful “improvised contrapunctus”.   I had the privilege to once see Oregon at the Blues Alley in Washington DC and it was for sure one of the most amazing performances I have ever seen.

Next, a beautiful composition by Larry Coryell which he interprets here with the (always brilliant) Joe Beck and Joe Scofield entitled “Thurman Munson“.  This is also a very understated composition, but it gives ample opportunities for some truly beautiful and poignant improvisations (including some beautifully weaved through polytonalities).

Next, I want to introduce you to a French guitarist named Pierre Bensusan.  The guy is an absolute genius both as a composer and as in interpreter.  Today I want to share one of my favorite compositions by Bensusan entitled simply “4am“.  I hope that you will enjoy it as much as I do!

Lastly, I want to introduce you to a ridiculously talented group from, I think, New York: they are called the “Nation of Five“.  Here they play one of my favorite tunes, called “The Saga of Harrison Crabfeathers” aka “Poem For No. 15.” composed by the Jazz pianist Steve Kuhn.  It is a most interesting Jazz waltz built around distinct keys (this is modal music at its best!) and which includes a very original use of something called a “hemiola“, that is “the articulation of two bars in triple time as if they were three bars in duple time” or, to quote Wikipedia’s fuller definition “a hemiola is the ratio 3:2. In pitch, hemiola refers to the interval of a perfect fifth. In rhythm, hemiola refers to three beats of equal value in the time normally occupied by two beats.  This makes the improvisation over this melody both very interesting and somewhat challenging.  I just love to explore all the possibilities this 1972 composition offers for improvisation and this is a fantastic performance by all these musicians!

MTV and and so-called “conservatories” have tried their best to stamp out real, improvised, music, and they failed.  What a joy for the rest of us, no?

Enjoy and have a wonderful week-end!

Ukronazi “good terrorists” – a who’s who (infographic)

August 29, 2022

Source

Infographic from The Lookout

Six months into Ukraine’s collapse, the world has changed forever

The inevitable transfer of power away from the west is leading to a surge in state-sponsored terrorism, but this will do little to reverse the trend

August 24 2022

By Pepe Escobar

Six months after the start of the Special Military Operation (SMO) by Russia in Ukraine, the geopolitical tectonic plates of the 21st century have been dislocated at astonishing speed and depth – with immense historical repercussions already at hand.

To paraphrase T.S. Eliot, this is the way the (new) world begins, not with a whimper but a bang.

The cold-blooded assassination of Darya Dugina – terrorism at the gates of Moscow – may have fatefully coincided with the six-month intersection point, but will do nothing to change the dynamics of the current, work-in-progress, historical shift.

Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) appeared to have cracked the case in a little over 24 hours, designating the perpetrator as a neo-Nazi Azov operative instrumentalized by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) – itself a mere tool of the CIA/MI6 combo that de facto rules Kiev.

The Azov operative is just a patsy. The FSB will never reveal in public the intel it has amassed on those that issued the orders, and how they will be dealt with.

One Ilya Ponomaryov, an anti-Kremlin minor character granted Ukrainian citizenship, boasted he was in contact with the outfit that prepared the hit on the Dugin family. No one took him seriously.

What is manifestly serious, however, is how oligarchy-connected organized crime factions in Russia would have a motive to eliminate Alexander Dugin, the Christian Orthodox nationalist philosopher who, according to them, may have influenced the Kremlin’s pivot to Asia (he didn’t).

These organized crime factions blamed Dugin for a concerted Kremlin offensive against the disproportional power of Jewish oligarchs in Russia. So these actors would have both the motive and the local know-how to mount such a coup.

If that’s the case, it potentially spells out a Mossad-linked operation – especially given the serious schism in Moscow’s recent relations with Tel Aviv. What’s certain is that the FSB will keep their cards very close to their chest – and retribution will be swift, precise and invisible.

The straw that broke the camel’s back

Instead of delivering a serious blow to Russia’s psyche that could impact the dynamics of its operations in Ukraine, the assassination of Darya Dugina only exposed the perpetrators as tawdry killers who have exhausted their options.

An IED cannot kill a philosopher – or his daughter. In an essential essay, Dugin himself explained how the real war – Russia against the US-led collective west – is a war of ideas. An existential war.

Dugin correctly defines the US as a “thalassocracy,” heir to “Britannia rules the waves.” Yet now the geopolitical tectonic plates are spelling out a new order: The Return of the Heartland.

Russian President Vladimir Putin himself first spelled it out at the Munich Security Conference in 2007. China’s Xi Jinping put it into action by launching the New Silk Roads in 2013. The Empire struck back with Maidan in 2014. Russia counter-attacked by coming to the aid of Syria in 2015.

The Empire doubled down on Ukraine, with NATO weaponizing it non-stop for eight years. At the end of 2021, Moscow invited Washington for a serious dialogue on “indivisibility of security” in Europe. That was dismissed with a non-response response.

Moscow took no time to assess that a dangerous US-led trifecta was instead in the works: an imminent Kiev blitzkrieg against Donbass; Ukraine flirting with acquiring nuclear weapons; and the work of US bioweapon labs. That was the straw that broke the camel’s back.

A consistent analysis of Putin’s public interventions these past few months reveals that the Kremlin – as well as Security Council Yoda Nikolai Patrushev – fully realize how the politico/media talking heads and shock troops of the collective west are directed by the rulers of Finance Capitalism.

As a direct consequence, they also realize how western public opinion is absolutely clueless, Plato cave-style, totally captive to the ruling financial class, who cannot tolerate any alternative narrative.

So Putin, Patrushev, and their peers will never presume that a senile teleprompter reader in the White House or a cokehead comedian in Kiev “rule” anything.

As the US rules global pop culture, it is fitting to borrow from what Walter White/Heisenberg, an average American channeling his inner bad, states in Breaking Bad: “I’m in the Empire business.” And the Empire business is to exercise raw power, maintained with ruthlessness, by all means necessary.

Russia broke that spell. But Moscow’s strategy is way more sophisticated than leveling Kiev with hypersonic weapons, something that could have been done at any moment, starting six months ago.

Instead, what Moscow is doing is talking to virtually the entire Global South, bilaterally or to groups of actors, explaining how the world-system is changing right before our eyes, with the key actors of the future configured as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), BRICS+, the Greater Eurasia Partnership.

And what we see is vast swathes of the Global South – or 85 percent of the world’s population – slowly but surely becoming ready to engage in expelling the finance capitalists from their national horizons, and ultimately taking them down: a long, tortuous battle that will imply multiple setbacks.

The facts on the ground

On the ground in soon-to-be rump Ukraine, Khinzal hypersonic weapons launched from Tu-22M3 bombers or Mig-31 interceptors  will continue to be employed.

Piles of HIMARS will continue to be captured. TOS 1A Heavy Flamethrowers will keep sending invitations to the gates of hell. Crimean Air Defense will continue to intercept all sorts of small drones with IEDs attached. Terrorism by local SBU cells will eventually be smashed.

Using essentially a phenomenal artillery barrage – cheap and mass-produced – Russia will annex Donbass, very valuable in terms of land, natural resources and industrial power. And then on to Nikolaev, Odessa, and Kharkov.

Geoeconomically, Russia can afford to sell its oil with fat discounts to any Global South customer, not to mention strategic partners China and India. Cost of extraction reaches a maximum of $15 per barrel, with a national budget based on $40-45 for a barrel of Urals, whose market value today is almost double that.

A new Russian benchmark is imminent, as well as oil in rubles following the wildly successful gas for rubles scheme.

The assassination of Darya Dugina provoked endless speculation about the Kremlin and the Ministry of Defense finally breaking their discipline. That’s not going to happen. Russian advances along the enormous 1,800-mile battle front are relentless, highly systematic, and deeply invested in a Greater Strategic Picture.

A key vector is whether Russia stands a chance of winning the information war with the west. That will never happen inside NATO’s realm – even as success after success is unfolding across the Global South.

As Glenn Diesen has masterfully demonstrated in his latest book, Russophobia, the collective west is viscerally impervious to admitting any social, cultural, historical merits by Russia.

They have already catapulted themselves into the irrationality stratosphere: the grinding down and de facto demilitarization of the imperial proxy army in Ukraine is driving the Empire’s handlers and its vassals literally nuts.

But the Global South should never lose sight of the ‘Empire business.’ That industry excels in producing chaos and plunder, always supported by extortion, bribery of local elites, and assassinations on the cheap. Every trick in the Divide and Rule book should be expected at any moment. Never underestimate a bitter, wounded, deeply humiliated, declining Empire.

Fasten your seat belts for more of this tense dynamic for the remainder of the decade.

But before that, all along the watchtower, get ready for the arrival of General Winter, whose riders are fast approaching. When the winds begin to howl, Europe will be freezing in the dead of dark nights, lit up occasionally by its finance capitalists puffing on fat cigars.

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of The Cradle.

Sabotage, terrorist and other diversionary attacks are a real risk for Russia (+addendum)

August 18, 2022

Source

Interesting news two days in a row.  First, the Russian MoD did conclude that the explosions at the Russian airfield in Crimea where the result of a diversionary operation (I use the term “diversionary” in the Russian sense of “diversiia” meaning sabotage/wrecking).  And today, the Russians have announced that they have arrested two employees of the Zaporozhiie nuclear plant (one guard and one engineer!) who were providing the Ukrainians with targeting coordinates and strike correction.  Now Russia is warning that a major strike on this nuclear plant would have catastrophic consequences.

My purpose today is not to discuss the situation around the ZNP, but to treat this as a tip of a much bigger iceberg.

So far, only my friend Andrei Martyanov has mentioned the very real risks of sabotage and/or terrorist attacks by Ukrainian diversionary groups, including the possible sabotage of the Moskva cruiser and the attack on the airfield in Crimea.  As usual, Andrei Martyanov is spot on.  What I want to do next is to expand a little on this topic in my favorite bullet-style format.

  • First, it is simply undeniable that the Ukronazi SBU/GUR have proven that they can, and have, conducted very effective diversionary attacks, including the murder of plenty of LDNR leaders.  Sometimes the Ukronazis used special SBU/GUR units, other times they have successfully recruited locals (be it in the LDNR or Crimea) to conduct acts of sabotage and terrorism.
  • Second, it is important to understand that while the SMO is not a real civil war, it has definite civil war ASPECTS, beginning with the undeniable reality that there are pro-Russian segments of the population in the Nazi occupied Ukraine but also that there are pro-Urkonazi segments of the LDNR/Russian population.  Thus both sides have people capable and willing to help the other side, including anti-Russian and pro-Ukrainian elements in LDNR/Russian controlled areas (including Crimea)
  • Third, besides ideological motives and simple corruption, you have to understand that both the SBU/GUR and the Russian SVR/G(R)U have access to databases which allows them to blackmail a person on the other side into collaboration.  They can use compromising information of any activity (past or present) which can, if made public, get a person in a lot of trouble, but they also can pressure family members, they can even directly threaten and cajole someone into collaboration.  Finally, there are a lot of poor and destitute people on both sides, and they need money badly, maybe not to purchase a multi-million dollar yacht but to, for example, get medical treatment for a family member.  Western special services are very good at spotting and using such people.
  • Fourth, as with any other conflict, when a war occurs, there is going to be some people who will benefit from it, but there is always going to be those who will lose a lot and who might be really unhappy about that.  Resentful people make for great recruits for special services (most Soviet defectors betrayed their country not for money, though some did, but because they fell unfairly treated by their superiors or the Soviet state).
  • Five, special services are very skilled at 1) spotting vulnerabilities and 2) making use of them.  Since, by definition, humans being humans, there will be such vulnerable people on both sides of the conflict.
  • So far, the Ukrainians have already made extensive use of such diversionary tactics, while the Russians have not (at least as far as we know, and there is a lot we don’t know).  The point is not to call one side “good” and the other “bad”, but to realize that both sides can, and will, use such special operations to disrupt the operations, and morale, of the other side.

Now one thing which will have a HUGE impact on this is the Russian decision to basically hand out Russian passports to any Ukrainian wanting one.  No, I am NOT critical of this decision, which was made on both moral and pragmatic grounds, but I will point out that this decision will come at a very real cost: a sharp increase in the numbers of Russians citizens whose true loyalties lie not with Russia, but with the Euromaidan or even Ukronazi ideology.  There are even such people in Russia proper!

The fact that such people are only a tiny fraction of the Russian population is irrelevant: all the SBU/GUR needs is a few, maybe a few tens, of such people.

And yes, of course, this is a direct challenge to the Russian intelligence and security agencies (SVR, FSB, GUSB/MVD, FSO, G(R)U and others).  But the reality is this: no matter how good the Russian intelligence and security services are, you cannot catch absolutely everybody, and neither can you place all potentially suspicious people under 24/7 surveillance (even if you knew who these people are).  The truth is that there will always be “leakers” who will successfully elude detection and interception.  You can catch many hundred of such people, but a few will always seep through the net and they will be used by the other side.

By the way, for the West and the Nazis in Kiev to declare that all the explosions in the LDNR/Russia (including Crimea) are the result of missile attacks makes perfectly good sense!  Not only does it boost the morale of the Ukronazis (Wunderwaffe and all that), it shows the western curators of the Nazi regime in Kiev how “effective” and “combat capable” the Ukrainian military still is.  Last, but not least, giving the credit to missiles is a very logical way to try to move the spotlight away from saboteurs and terrorists.  The Russians perfectly understand that, but the folks in the West apparently not, hence the systematic dismissal of the diversionary operation by so many commentators who prefer to daydream about some super-dooper missiles and other assorted Wunderwaffen and dismiss less “sexy” acts of simple sabotage.

Bottom line is this: if the SBU/GUR managed to recruit 2 employees of the ZNP, whom else do you think they might recruit in the future (or have already recruited)?  Think about folks involved in technical maintenance, transportation, logistics, prisons and POW facilities. etc. etc. etc.  Heck, the Ukies even tried to corrupt a Su-34 pilot and have him fly his Su-34 to the Ukrainian side in exchange for a EU passport and money.  This SBU/GUR plot pathetically failed, and the Russians even managed to get some classified info about the Ukrainian air defenses, which were promptly demilitarized.  However, the main reasons here are probably double: first, Su-34 pilots are definitely a highly motivated elite type, and they are also very closely monitored by Russian counter-intelligence services.  So, maybe next time, the SBU/GUR needs to “aim” for a more modest and less protected target.

And who is to say that the next time around the SBU/GUR will fail?

Some will wonder why the Russians could not do in the Ukraine what they did in Chechnia.  There are many key differences here, including:

  • Chechnia is a tiny piece of land compared to the Ukraine and it is comparatively easy to “lock”
  • Chechnia’s population is dwarfed by the Ukrainian population (even after millions left)
  • There is no equivalent of Ahmad Hadji Kadyrov or his son Ramzan in the Ukraine
  • Chechens Takfiris never had the kind of firepower or weapons the Ukronazis do

So no, the precedent of Chechnia does not in any way imply that the Nazis in the Ukraine will be as comparatively quickly defeated as the Takfiris were.

This is a major problem for Russia and, worse, this is a problem which will not go away anytime soon.

The only thing Russians can do is to 1) prepare for a very long counter-intelligence and counter-diversionary operations lasting many years and 2) accept the reality of war for what it is and not freak out the next time the Ukronazis blow up something, be it a ship, a train, an aircraft, a bridge or any other target in the LDNR or Russia.

The one good news the Russians also need to keep in mind is that most of such diversionary/terrorist attacks are still fundamentally part of PSYOPs and are mostly designed for PR effect.  In terms of their actual impact on Russian military capabilities, it is close to zero,  just like the Israeli strikes in Syria have made exactly *zero* difference on the ground in Syria.  To really affect military operations you need to have a large, viable and sophisticated partisan/”stay behind” force, which the Ukrainians do not have, not by a long margin.  Also, to really affect military operations, such diversionary tactics need to be carefully coordinated with “regular” friendly military forces (like the Soviet partisans during WWII who closely worked with the Soviet armed forces).

So yes, this is a problem, a very unpleasant one, one which will be hard to deal with, but not one which will affect Russian military operations.  Even if the Ukronazis blow up both the Chernobyl AND Zaporozhiie NPs, this will not significantly affect the SMO or even the war between Russia and the united West.  The entire Russian military is trained, and well trained, to operate in a hostile nuclear, chemical or bacteriological environment.  As for Russian logistics, they are extremely sophisticated and highly redundant, so even if the Ukronazis blow up one node of the resupply network, it will be quickly fixed and/or easily replaced or bypassed.

That being said, I would personally recommend that we all mentally prepare for what is almost certainly about to happen in the not too distant future.  If we understand what such operation can and cannot achieve we will see them in a sober, pragmatic way, and not cave in to the hysterics (by many sides, including the Russian 6th column) which will inevitable follow any such attack.

Andrei

Addendum: with so many commentators freaking out about a potential meltdown of all the nuclear reactors at the ZNP, I would say this: the reactors themselves are far tougher to strike that the used nuclear fuel storage facilities which are not nearly as well protected.  Again, the real danger is not the one we instinctively think of first.

Liberation of Peski. Where to go next?

August 15, 2022

Освобождение Пески. Куда дальше? // Liberation of Peski. Where to go?

Will the Ukraine be partitioned next and, if so, how?

August 16, 2022

Interesting info today.  First, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service has, through the statement of a Colonel General, made the following statement (translated by my friend Andrei Martyanov on his blog): (emphasis added)

Translation: MOSCOW, August 16 – RIA Novosti. Western curators have practically written off the Kyiv regime and are already planning the partition of Ukraine, Foreign Intelligence Service spokesman Colonel-General Volodymyr Matveev said at the Moscow Conference on International Security. “Obviously, the West is not concerned about the fate of the Kyiv regime. As can be seen from the information received by the SVR, Western curators have almost written it off and are in full swing developing plans for the division and occupation of at least part of the Ukrainian lands,” he said. However, according to the general, much more is at stake than Ukraine: for Washington and its allies, it is about the fate of the colonial system of world domination.

Just to clarify, the SVR rarely makes public statements and when they do, you can take them to the bank as the SVR is not in the business of “leaks” from “informed sources” and all the rest of the PR nonsense produced by the so-called western “intelligence” agencies (which have now been fully converted to highly politicized propaganda outlets).

The same day I see this article on the RT website: “Western countries waiting for ‘fall of Ukraine’ – Kiev” in which an interesting statement the Ukronazi Foreign Minister is mentioned:

Several countries in the West are waiting for Kiev to surrender and think their problems will immediately solve themselves, said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba in an interview published on Tuesday.  “I often get asked in interviews and while speaking to other foreign ministers: how long will you last? That’s instead of asking what else could be done to help us defeat Putin in the shortest time possible,” Kuleba said, noting that such questions suggest that everyone “is waiting for us to fall and for their problems to disappear on their own.

Finally, a while ago, Dmitri Medvedev post this “future map of the Ukraine after the war” on his Telegram account.  This maps shows a Ukraine partitioned between her neighbors and a tiny rump Ukraine left in the center.

Now, full disclosure, I have been a proponent of the breakup of the Ukraine into several successor states for a long while now: I gave my reasons for this in my article “The case for the breakup of the Ukraine” written in faraway 2016.

Now, six years later, what are the chances of this happening?

Without making predictions, which is close to impossible right now as there are way too many variables which can dramatically influence the outcome, I want to list a few arguments for and against the likelihood (as opposed to desirability) of such an outcome.

Arguments for the likelihood of this outcome:

  • First, most of the neighbors of the Ukraine would benefit from such an outcome.  Poland would not get the “intermarium” it always dreams about, but it would get back lands which historically belong to Poland and are populated by many Poles.  In this map, Romania would also get a good deal, albeit Moldavia would lose Transnistria, which it had no real chance to ever truly control anyway.  Romania might, therefore, even absorb all of Moldavia.  True, on this map, Hungary gets (almost) nothing, but that is an issue which Hungary must tackle with Poland and Romania, not Russia.
  • Russia might not even oppose such a development, simply because it makes the Ukronazi problem somebody else’s issue.  As long as what is the current Ukraine is fully demilitarized and denazified, Russia will be fine with such an outcome.
  • The rump ex-Banderastan would be so much reduced in size, population and ressources that it would present little to no threat to anybody.  Crucially, the Russians will never allow it to have anything more than a minimal police and internal security force (for at least as long as there remains even *traces* of the Ukronazi Banderista ideology anywhere near Russia).  The actual chances of this rump Banderastan to become a threat to anybody would be close to zero.  Not to mention that even if that rump Banderastan could become some kind of threat, it would be much easier to deal with it than the threat Russia faced in early 2022.
  • Objectively, the European countries would get the best possible “out” for them, as being in a constant state of total war by proxy is absolutely unsustainable for countries of Europe.
  • As for “Biden”, assuming he is still alive and in power (?), it would make it possible for “him” to remove the topic of this latest war lost (again!) by the USA from the headlines and deal with other issues.
  • The Ukraine has been such a waste of money, billions and billions, that it is essentially a black hole with an event horizon which lets nothing come back out and beyond which anything, money, equipment or men, simply disappear.  That is clearly an unsustainable drain on the economies of the West.
  • Yet, in theory, if a deal is made and all parties agree, then the EU could remove maybe not all, but at least the worst, self-damaging, sanctions it so stupidly implemented and which are now destroying the EU’s economy.
  • For the USA the biggest benefit from such an outcome could be, in theory, that it would “close” the “Russian front” and allow the US to focus its hatred and aggression against China.

There are, however, also many arguments against such an outcome.

  • First, the western ruling classes, drunk on total russophobia, would have to accept that Russia won this war (again) and defeated the combined powers of the West (again).  This would mean an immense loss of face and political credibility for all those involved in the political war against Russia.
  • Second, for NATO this would be a disaster.  Remember that NATO’s real goal is to “keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down“.  In this case, how would an even expanded NATO accept that it could do absolutely nothing to stop the Russians from achieving all their goals?
  • Next, while the people of the EU are suffering from the devastating economic policies of their rulers, the ruling elites (the EU 1%) are doing just fine, thank you, and don’t give a damn about the people they rule over.
  • Such an outcome would also directly challenge the US desire for a unipolar world, run by Uncle Shmuel as the World Hegemon.  The risk here is a political domino effect in which more and more countries would struggle to achieve true sovereignty, which would be a direct threat to the US economic model.
  • Such an outcome is almost certain to be unachievable while the Neocons run the USA.  And since there are NO signs of the weakening of the Neocons’ iron grip on all the levers of political powers in the USA, such an outcome could only happen if the Neocon crazies are sent back to the basement they crawled out from and where they belong.  Not likely in the foreseeable future.
  • This focus on the partition of the Ukraine overlooks the fact that the Ukraine is not the real enemy of Russia.  In fact, the Ukraine lost the war to Russia in the first 7-10 days after the beginning of the SMO.  Ever since, it is not the Ukraine per se which Russia has been fighting, but the consolidated West.  If the real enemy is the consolidated West, the it could be argued that *any* outcome limited to the Ukraine would not fix or solve anything.  At best, it might be an intermediate stage of a much larger and longer war in which Russia will have to demilitarize and denazify not just Banderastan but, at the very least, all of the EU/NATO countries.
  • While for some the Ukrainian war has been an economic disaster, it has been a fantastic windfall for the (terminally corrupt) US MIC.  And I won’t even go into the obvious corruption ties the Biden family has in Kiev.  If this “Medvedev solution” is ever realized, then all that easy money would disappear.
  • Furthermore, while amongst the argument for such an outcome I listed the ability of the USA to “close the Russian front” and focus on China, in reality such an arguments makes a very far-fetched assumption: that it is still possible to separate Russia and China and that Russia would allow the US to strike at China.  Simply put, Russia cannot allow China to be defeated any more than China can allow for a Russian defeat.  Thus the entire notion of “closing the Russian front” is illusory, in reality things have gone way too far for that and neither Russia nor China will allow the US to take them down one by one.
  • The EU is run by a comprador ruling class which is totally subservient to the interests of the US Neocons.  There are, already, many internal tensions inside the EU and such an outcome would be a disaster for those all those EU politicians who painted themselves into the corner of a total war against Russia, and even if, say, the Poles, Romanians or even Hungarians get some benefit from such an outcome, it would be unacceptable to the thugs currently running Germany, the UK or even France.

The arguments for and against such an outcome I listed above are just some examples, in reality there are many more arguments on both sides of this issue.  Besides, what made sense 6 years ago might not make sense today.

For example, this discussion focuses on the “what” but not on the “how”.  Let me explain.

I think that I was the first person in the West who noticed and translated a key Russian expression: “non agreement capable” (недоговороспособны).  This expression has been increasingly used by many Russian decision-makers, politicians, political commentators and others.  Eventually, even the folks in the West picked up on this.  So let’s revisit this issue again, keeping in mind that the Russians are now fully convinced that the West is simply “non agreement capable”.  I would argue that up until the Russian ultimatum to the USA and NATO, the Russians still left open the door to some kind of negotiations.  However, and as I predicted BEFORE the Russian ultimatum, Russia made the only possibly conclusion from the West’s stance: if our “partners” (sarcasm) are not agreement capable, then the time has come for Russian unilateralism.

True, ever since 2013, or even 2008, there were already signs that Russian decision making is gradually moving towards unilateralism.  But the Russian ultimatum and SMO are now the “pure” signs of the adoption by Russia of unilateralism, at least towards the consolidated West.

If that is correct, then I would suggest that most arguments above, on both sides of the issue, are have basically become obsolete and irrelevant.

Furthermore, I would like to add a small reminder here: most of the combat operations in the Ukraine are not even conducted by Russian forces, but by LDNR forces supported by Russian C4ISR and firepower.  But in terms of her real military potential, Russia has used less than 10% of her military and Putin was quite candid about this when he said “we have not even begun to act seriously“.

What do you think this war will look like if Russia decides to really unleash her full military power, that is the 90% of forces which are currently not participating in the SMO?

Here is a simple truth which most folks in the West cannot even imagine: Russia does not fear NATO at all.

If anything, the Russians have already understood that they have the means to impose whatever outcome they chose to unilaterally impose on their enemies.  The notion of a US/NATO attack on Russia is simply laughable.  Yes, the USA has a very powerful submarine force which can fire lots of Tomahawk and Harpoon missiles at Russian targets.  And yes, the US has a still robust nuclear triad.  But neither of these will help the USA win a land war against the Russian armed forces.

And no, sending a few thousands US soldiers to this or that NATO country to “reinforce NATO’s eastern flank” is pure PR, militarily, it is not even irrelevant, it’s laughable.  I won’t even comment on the sending of F-35s which is so utterly ridiculous and useless against the Russian Aerospace Forces and air defenses that I won’t even bother arguing with those who don’t understand how bad both the F-35s (and even the F-22s!) really are.

I won’t dignify the EU’s military capabilities with any comment other than this: countries who now seriously advocate taking less frequent showers to “show Putin!” have sunk to such a level of irrelevance and degeneracy that they cannot be taken seriously, most definitely not in Russia.

So where do we go from here?

As I said, I don’t know, there are too many variables.  But a few things seem clear to me:

  • Russia has decided to full unilateralism in her policies towards the Ukraine and the West.  Oh sure, if and when needed, Russians will still agree to talk to their western “partners”, but that is due to the long standing Russian policy of always talking to everybody and anybody, even Russia’s worst enemies.  Why?  Because neither warfare not political unilateralism are an end by themselves, they are only means to achieve a specific political goal.  Thus, it is always good to sit down with your enemy, especially if you have been gently but steadily increasing the pain dial on them for a few months!  The Europeans being the “great supine protoplasmic invertebrate jellies” (to quite BoJo) they are might cave in quickly and suddenly or, at the very least, they will try to improve their lot by trying to bypass their own sanctions (Uncle Shmuel permitting, however reluctantly).
  • The only party with any real agency left with which Russia could seriously negotiate is the USA, of course.  However, as long as the USA under the total control of the Neocons, this is a futile exercise.
  • Should there ever be any kind of deal made, it would only be one which would be fully and totally verifiable.  Contrary to popular beliefs, a great many treaties and agreements can be crafted to be fully verifiable, that is not a technical problem by itself.  However, with the current ruling classes of the West, no such deal is likely to be hammered out and agreed by all parties involved.

So what is left?

There is a Russian saying which my grandmother taught me as a kid: “the borders of Russia are found at the end of a Cossack’s spear“.  This saying, born from 1000 years of existential warfare with no natural borders simply expresses a basic reality: the Russian armed forces are the ones who decide where Russia ends.  Or you can flip it this way: “the only natural border of Russia are the capabilities of the Russian armed forces”.  You can think of it has pre-1917 Russian unilateralism 🙂

Still, this begs the question of the moral and ethical foundation for such a stance.  After all, does it not suggest that Russia gives herself the right to invade any country it can just because she can?

Not at all!

While there were imperialist and expansionist wars in Russian history, compared to the West’s 1000 years of wall to wall imperialism, Russia is but a meek and gentle lamb!  Not that this excuses anything, it is simply a fact.  The rest of the Russian wars were, almost all, existential wars, for the survival and freedom of the Russian nation.  I cannot think of a more “just war” than one which 1) was imposed upon you and 2) one in which your sole goal is to survive as a free and sovereign nation, especially a multi-ethnic and multi-religious nation as the Russian one has always been, in sharp contrast to the enemies of Russia which were always driven by religious, nationalist and even overtly racist fervor (which is what we can all observe again today, long after the end of WWII).

Is this just propaganda?  If you think so, then you can study Russian history or, better, study the current military doctrine of Russia and you will see that Russia’s force planning is entirely defensive, especially at the strategic level.  The best proof of that is that Russia put up with all the ugly racist and russophobic policies of the Ukraine or the three Baltic statelets for decades without taking any action.  But when the Ukraine became a de facto NATO proxy and directly threatened not only the Donbass, but Russia herself (does anybody still remember that days before the SMO, “Ze” declared that the Ukraine should get nuclear weapons?!), then Russia took action.  You have to be either blind or fantastically dishonest not to admit that self-evident fact.

[Sidebar: by the way, the three Baltic statelets, for which Russia has not use at all, are constantly trying to become a military threat to Russia, not only by hosting NATO forces, but also by truly idiotic plans to “lock” the Baltic with Finland.  Combine this was the Nazi anti-Russian Apartheid policies towards the Russian minorities and you would be forgiven for thinking that the Balts really want to be the next ones to be denazified and demilitarized.  But… but… – you will say  – “since they are members of NATO, they cannot be attacked!”.  Well, if you believe that 1) anybody in NATO will fight Russia over these statelets or 2) that NATO has the military means to protect them, then I have got plenty of great bridges to sell you.  Still, the most effective way to deal with the Balts is to let them commit economic suicide, which they basically have already done, and then promise them a few “economic carrots” for a change to a more civilized attitude.  A Russian saying says that “the refrigerator wins against the TV” (победа холодильника над телевизором) which means that when your refrigerator is empty, the propaganda on TV loses its power.  I think that the future of the 3 Baltic statelets will be defined by that aphorism]

So will the Ukraine be partitioned?

Yes, absolutely, it has already lost huge parts of its territory and it will only lose more.

Might the western neighbors decide to take a bite out off the western Ukraine?  Sure!  That is a real possibility.

But these will all be either unilateral actions or very unofficially coordinated understandings wrapped in plausible deniability (like the deployment Polish “peacekeepers” to “protect” the western Ukraine).  But mostly I predict two things will happen: 1) Russia will achieve all of her goals unilaterally without making any deals with anybody and 2) Russia will only allow the Ukraine’s western neighbors to bite off some chucks of the Ukraine if, and only if, those chunks to not represent any military threat to Russia.

Remember what Putin said about Finland and Sweden and Finland joining NATO?  He said that by itself, this is not a problem for Russia.  But he warned that should these countries host US/NATO forces and weapons systems threatening Russia, than Russia will have to take counter-measures.  I think that this is also the Kremlin’s position about the future of any rump-Banderastan and any moves by NATO countries (including Poland, Romania and Hungary) to reacquire territories which historically belonged to them or which have substantial Polish, Romanian and Hungarian minorities.

Right now, we are only in the second phase of the SMO (which centers of the Donbass) and Russia has not even initiated any operations to move deeper into the Ukraine.  As for the real war, the war between Russia and the combined West, it has been going on for no less than decade, or even more, and this war will last much longer than the SMO in the Ukraine.  Finally, the outcome of this war will see  tectonic and profound changes at least as damatic as the changes resulting from the outcomes of WWI and WWII.

The Russians understand that what they now really must do is to truly finish WWII and that the formal end of WWII in 1945 only marked the transition to a different type of warfare still imposed by a united, consolidated West, but now not by German Nazis but by (mostly) US Neocons (which, of course, are typical racist Nazis, except their racism is Anglo and Judaic/Zionist).

I will conclude with a short quote by Bertold Brecht which, I think, is deeply understood by Russia today:

Therefore learn how to see and not to gape.
To act instead of talking all day long.
The world was almost won by such an ape!
The nations put him where his kind belong.
But don’t rejoice too soon at your escape –
The womb he crawled from is still going strong.”

― Bertolt Brecht, The Resistible Rise of Arturo Ui

Russia slaughtered a lot of western apes in her history, now is the time to finally deal with the womb from which they crawled out from.

Andrei

PS: FYI – the Russian investigation has declared that the explosions in the airfield in Crimea was an act of sabotage/diversion.  Which was the most likely explanation to begin with.

An Alternative Open Letter to Western Politicians

August 15, 2022

Source

by Asia Teacher

Dear western politicians!

Leaving aside the usual sycophantic nonsense, which applauds your continuing efforts to bring freedom and democracy to the Middle East with missile attacks, trying to change the earth’s climate using beliefs, promising an unknown source of ‘green’ energy whilst promoting vaccines to save us from certain death from a dose of flu, here’s an alternative open letter.

As a UK citizen now retired, having recently returned to the UK after over a decade of living and working in Asia and the Far East I’m stunned by the stupification around me. Have I inadvertently fallen down an alternative universe Alice in Wonderland rabbit hole, or is there a hidden factory somewhere mass-producing stupid politicians?

As yet another British Prime Minister resigns following the resignations of two others before him producing a failing economy, soaring inflation, sky-high taxes, an energy crisis and a falling pound … The indoctrinated cheer on men with beards wearing dresses and it’s left to a dwindling minority to explain why carrots don’t grow on trees in a socially engineered ideological dystopia! The consequences of which you blame on the Russians, or the Chinese depending on who the US has currently fallen out with.

As you sit in your elitist tax payer funded ivory towers, let’s briefly detail the chaos and mayhem you’ve produced.

Did you think the outside world believed you were trying to bring freedom and democracy to the Middle East and not trying to control the world’s major oil producers who just all happened to have abandoned the petrodollar? How many millions lost their lives in that failed adventure?

How many of you swooned over a 16-year-old autistic Swedish school drop out with Asperger’s syndrome, OCD and selective mutism whose mother said she had “special eyes” that could see carbon rising from a dying planet? As a self-inflicted energy crisis looms and both Britain and Germany re-open coal-fired power stations, are you still cheering for mentally ill Greta and her windmills?

How can you keep a straight face whilst telling millions that if they didn’t have the Covid vaccine they’d be passing on the flu they didn’t have onto others? How much of the vaccine scam profit disappeared into the pockets of pharmaceuticals, lobbyists and your own pockets? The whole country could hear the cash tills ringing as shares in the pharmaceuticals producing vaccines went through the roof amid crony contracts awarded to favoured companies. Are you listening former British Health Secretary Matt Hancock who resigned after being caught with his nose in the trough.

Predictably, as the manufactured hysteria wore off and attention spans waned, the advice from the British National Health Service was to open our windows and let the virus out. Apparently, it had been hiding in our homes the whole time? Moreover, the experiment of a “new normal” locked down muzzled population also failed, together with the attempt to introduce Covid passports as hundreds of thousands took to the streets in Britain and throughout Europe in mass demonstrations to protest against the implementation of virtual house arrest and freedom of movement. After this, what comes next, a climate change lock down?

Moving on, Russia, who just by coincidence is another major energy producer surrounded by NATO missile bases and sanctioned hoping its economy collapses and produces another “regime change.” Why does that produce a feeling of déjà vu? How long did you believe a nuclear power would tolerate an aggressive US led NATO advancing towards its border? The last time western armies gathered on Russian borders was in 1941 and that didn’t end well.

Oh the irony, as you cheer for the same Nazis your grandfathers fought against and vilify the Russians who are now having to fight them again. How many of you condemned the previous eight years of ethnic Russian murders in the Crimea and Donbass by Nazi militias who you helped arm and train, but turned a blind eye to the consequences. No crocodile tears and outraged comments from you when Russian civilians were being killed. Make no mistake, in another era the majority of you would be sitting in the same Nuremberg dock as the previous psychopaths!

For the last quarter century you are without doubt the most useless, corrupt and destructive political class in British history. In one generation you have dumbed down the British population to an idiocracy in your ‘Woke’ eagerness to remove the cultural traditions and values of centuries. As suicide statistics soar, mental health issues reach an all-time high and drugs become a lifestyle choice for many to block out the horror of reality, it’s not a diverse and equality multicultural utopia you’ve produced, it’s a nightmare!

And you, the US demagogues and liberal fascist European Commissioners; in two decades your ideologically warped quest for power has not only failed to make the world a safer place, you have brought us to the verge of a nuclear conflict. Between you, you’ve managed to wreck our economies, brought terrorism to our streets and created the worst energy crisis since the 1970s – whilst becoming fabulously wealthy yourselves. Yes, we have noticed. The sooner you’re removed from power, the sooner both we the western populations and the outside world can have a rest from your incompetence and murderous activities!

Meanwhile, as I write from England, outside my window another car with exhaust baffles removed and the window wound down emitting ear-splitting decibels of rap ‘music’ drives past, whilst on the pavement a silent E-scooter carrying a bald middle-aged man with expressionless eyes in short trousers and tattooed legs races by.

Asia Teacher is a UK citizen, retired teacher of English plus Social and Political Science.

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