If Donald Trump Refuses to Leave the White House, Secret Service Will Escort Him Out

If Donald Trump Refuses to Leave the White House, Secret Service Will Escort Him Out

By Tom O’Connor and Naveed Jamali, Newsweek

In a year of tragic firsts for the country, the unthinkable is always a possibility.

As an early lead began to slip on election night, President Donald Trump prematurely declared victory, even as former Vice President Joe Biden appeared set to win thanks to an influx of mail-in ballots, received early but counted last in key states.

Trump has since claimed the race was rigged and shows no sign of conceding, leading the Biden campaign to consider outcomes previously thought to be only the most radical.

“As we said on July 19th, the American people will decide this election,” Biden’s team said in a statement Friday. “And the United States government is perfectly capable of escorting trespassers out of the White House.”

And the Secret Service would be the ones to do it, one former US official and two experts told Newsweek.

The scenarios Newsweek discussed with its sources are hypothetical. No network has called the race and the votes are still being counted. Trump has a narrow path to victory in the Electoral College. He has never said or implied that he would continue to occupy the White House after exhausting any legal challenges to the vote.

Still, this is what happens when a sitting president doesn’t stand up to pass the baton to his or her successor. It’s never been seen before in the United States and there is no imminent threat that it will happen in January, but there is a plan in place to prevent a transition in power crisis.

The 20th Amendment has it that Trump, or any other lame-duck leader, loses his presidential mandate January 20 at noon, and, if he tries to stick around after that, the very guard once tasked with protecting the nation’s top officeholder now has to evict him.

“The Secret Service would escort him off, they would treat him like any old man who’d wandered on the property,” one former official involved in the transition process between former President Barack Obama and Trump told Newsweek.

And whether or not Trump actually attends the Inauguration Day ceremony is irrelevant to the actual transfer of authority – in which Trump would also lose privileged modes of transportation such as the presidential Air Force One and his iconic, fortified limousine, the Beast.

“As of noon of January 2021 the Beast doesn’t belong to him, AF1 doesn’t belong to him, and the White House doesn’t belong to him,” former US Navy intelligence and counter-terrorism specialist Malcolm Nance told Newsweek.

The system is intentionally built to work independently of the whims of whoever happens to be in the White House at the time.

“The transition process is automated. There is no ‘do-it yourself’ move,” Nance said. “So if he doesn’t have a designated place, they’ll decide for him. Basically, the systematic things will happen whether he’s a willing participant or not.”

Trump also loses his commander-in-chief status, meaning the Pentagon cannot and will not come to his aid should Biden be sworn in.

It’s not the military’s place to intervene, however. Like the former official Newsweek spoke to, Nance also indicated it would be the Secret Service to remove the president, physically if need be.

“If he says he will not physically leave the White House, they will physically remove him,” he added. “They may have to put hands on him to remove him. They may tell him if he doesn’t make his flight, he may have to contract his own flight.”

Such a scenario would be unprecedented. Of the 43 men who preceded Trump in the presidency, 35 have willingly ceded power either because their two-term limit expired, they lost an election or chose not to run again. Eight died and one quit.

Trump managed to unwillingly make history last year by being only the third president to be impeached, but – like Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton before him—the Senate saved Trump from being ousted.

Overstaying his Oval Office welcome after an election, however, would truly be unparalleled.

“No sitting president has ever refused to leave office or vacate the White House in the course of American history,” the White House Historical Association told Newsweek.

Even if Trump managed to somehow vacate the vote itself, the outcome would likely be unfavorable for him. No avenue exists for him to prolong his administration nor appoint his deputy, Vice President Mike Pence.

Rather, the first ever undetermined US election would result in the third-in-line assuming the presidency. In this case, that’s Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, an influential Democrat often targeted by Trump’s rhetoric.

“There is no constitutional provision to extend the term of office,” the White House Historical Association said. “If no president has been chosen by January 20, 2021, then the statutory line of succession begins, which means the Speaker of the House ascends to the presidency. The Vice President’s term similarly ends at noon on January 20.”

Many outlets project Biden is most likely to pull through based on the current count, however, and Berggruen Institute Vice President of Programs Nils Gilman said he cannot see Trump participating in the formalities of his predecessors.

“It’s hard to imagine Trump graciously welcoming Biden to the White House on the morning of January 20th, then doing the traditional ride with him down Pennsylvania Avenue, then sitting behind him on the podium and politely clapping as Biden gets sworn in,” Gilman told Newsweek. “Presiding over the ceremonial celebration of his own political failure doesn’t seem at all in character.”

Trump’s absence, Gilman argued, would not only fuel more partisan bickering but also introduce dangerous new precedents for future leaders who potentially would not conceive of such a break in tradition.

“This would indeed be yet another example of how Trump is systematically breaking the norms that make felicitous governance and cooperative policymaking possible – in this case by traducing the symbolic performance of the idea that the US government is a government of all Americans, not just the government of a single party,” Gilman said.

2020, a year defined by the COVID-19 pandemic, civil unrest and economic turmoil, has painfully demonstrated the limits of saying “never,” and opened up an array of discourse on a number of doomsday scenarios.

In fact, an incumbent Trump unwilling to walk away has already been imagined by Gilman and other experts concerned about the potential for a break in the United States’ so far uninterrupted democracy.

Earlier this year, Gilman and Georgetown Law professor Rosa Brooks established the Transition Integrity Project, an exercise involving a bipartisan group of experienced individuals from various government, media and academic backgrounds to establish four scenarios for the 2020 election.

These involved Biden winning the electoral and popular votes by a healthy margin, Biden winning the two metrics by a narrow margin, Trump winning the former but losing the latter and a too close to call case where the victor is not established the following day.

Needless to say, the final scenario has become reality, as did predictions of widespread efforts by the Trump campaign and friendly media to amplify “stolen election” and “voter fraud” narratives.

This hypothetical series of events quickly turns ugly, with Trump refusing to concede and mass nationwide demonstrations potentially turning violent as a new uncertainty grips an already tumultuous country. Trump presents himself as the “law and order” option.

Despite these attempts to overturn his rival’s victory through propaganda and social media smears, officials and even some Republicans quietly begin to discuss backing Biden and, by the time the president-elect is certified by lawmakers on January 6 and Inauguration Day arrives two weeks later, it’s clear that Trump no longer has the backing of the US government.

“Biden’s electoral victory was certified but Trump refused to leave the White House. He began to burn documents and potentially incriminating evidence, and continued to launch attacks against the legitimacy of the election. President Trump released a series of pardons for members of his administration as well as himself before the Secret Service escorted him out of the White House,” the scenario goes.

“But the Secret Service demonstrated its ‘culture of professionalism’ [as one member of the Federal Government Team indicated] by indicating that it would be ‘loyal to the office, not to the person’ and therefore it would escort Trump out of the White House on January 20,” it continued.

Speaking to Newsweek in light of recent events, Brooks stood by this assessment.

“If Biden is projected to win and is then formally certified as the winner in the Joint Session of Congress on Jan 6, he is officially going to be the next President, whether Trump concedes or not,” she said. “Once Biden is sworn in on inauguration day, power transfers to him, and the Secret Service will indeed escort former President Trump out of the White House.”

Her colleague, Gilman, agreed.

“As to Trump refusing to leave the White House physically, I must say that I find this to be an exceedingly unlikely turn of events,” he told Newsweek. “At some point the Secret Service will simply escort him out.”

The White House and Secret Service did not respond to Newsweek’s request for comment.

‘Gloves will come off’ once Trump’s out & media stop protecting Biden, Democrat’s accuser Tara Reade tells RT

8 Nov, 2020 05:44 

‘Gloves will come off’ once Trump’s out & media stop protecting Biden, Democrat’s accuser Tara Reade tells RT
FILE PHOTO © REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko

Tara Reade, the former US Senate aide who accused Joe Biden of sexual assault, said more allegations may surface as the media allows more truthful reporting on the former VP’s alleged corruption once his victory is sealed.

“I think there will be more interest as far as other people may be coming forward,” Reade said on Saturday in an interview with RT’s Polly Boiko.

Reade noted that journalists such as Glenn Greenwald were stifled during the election in their efforts to report on alleged influence-peddling by Biden’s family in Ukraine and China, but once Biden has replaced Trump in the Oval Office, the rules may change.

Reade argued that the US media was forced to exercise self-censorship in their reporting on Biden during the election cycle, saying that “the journalists … have been frustrated that they have been basically given a message to not go after Biden.

“I think the gloves come off after he becomes president,” Reade said. “I think the truth needs to come out, and I don’t mean attacks, I don’t mean attacks like I experienced, by any means. What I’m talking about is actual journalism being able to get done. If there was corruption, reveal it. If he used his position as vice president to enrich his family, in the way he’s accusing Trump, then it should be revealed.”

Reade earlier this year accused then-senator Biden of sexually assaulting her in 1993. Last year, she was among seven women who alleged that he had touched them inappropriately. She called Biden a “predator” in her interview with Boiko and said some of her friends considered his support for the 1994 Violence Against Women Act a “cover for his misogyny.”

“It’s like the wolf in sheep’s clothing,” Reade said. “Oh look at me, I’m safe. Not really.”

Reade, who claimed she was pressured to quit her job on Biden’s staff after filing a sexual-harassment complaint, said that since leaving Washington in 1993, she has watched the Democratic Party evolve and become more dominated by corporate interests. Even in the 1990s, she said she witnessed Biden’s devotion to credit-card companies and other corporate donors, arguing that such dominance has only increased. 

“We’ve kind of become the United States of oligarchy.”

The party’s controllers also have become more pro-war, Reade said. “What gets me about the Democratic Party is our hypocrisy,” she said. “I was part of that cult, if you will, the Democrats, and I’m out of it now. I really see the hypocrisy, the sanctimoniousness. We need to stop.”

Reade said the party also needs to “stop blaming everything on Russia, which is just ridiculous,” and start having real conversations about improving the US political system.

“Hopefully we can start looking at other countries as allies and collaborators on ways to work with them rather than as enemies and find the next war,” she said. “My fear with Biden’s cabinet, the packed cabinet he will pick, is that we might end up by spring in another regime war. That’s my prediction.”

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4 years of anti-Trumpism shaping MSM vote coverage, but expect long fight

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Saturday, 07 November 2020 9:22 PM  [ Last Update: Saturday, 07 November 2020 9:22 PM ]

US Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) (L) talks with Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) during a rally with fellow Democrats before voting on H.R. 1, or the People Act, on the East Steps of the US Capitol on March 08, 2019 in Washington, DC. (AFP photo)
“Trumpism”, a cartoon by The Economist

By Ramin Mazaheri and crossposted with PressTV

4 years of anti-Trumpism shaping MSM vote coverage, but expect long fight
* Ramin Mazaheri is currently covering the US elections. He is the chief correspondent in Paris for Press TV and has lived in France since 2009. He has been a daily newspaper reporter in the US, and has reported from Iran, Cuba, Egypt, Tunisia, South Korea and elsewhere. He is the author of ‘Socialism’s Ignored Success: Iranian Islamic Socialism’ as well as ‘I’ll Ruin Everything You Are: Ending Western Propaganda on Red China’, which is also available in simplified and traditional Chinese.

With Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 US presidential votes, you will probably not hear pro-Trump views in the mainstream media for four years, but 70 million Trump votes show they do exist.

Last night I dreamt that I asked Trump what it was like to be the world’s most insulted man over the last four years?

This piqued his interest and he granted me a walk-and-talk interview. While I waited for him to be free I ate pizza – the food of variety and routine entertainment. When he became available we walked to a car, marveling that the secret service was going to let us travel without them. Trump would drive, which in dream logic means I think he is in charge.

I had more good journalistic questions for Trump, but I couldn’t remember any others when I woke up.

If the United States corporate media could insult Trump for four years then we should assume there is the same bias and animosity in their coverage of the current election crisis.

As a journalist I must account for this and realize they routinely give only one side of the story. In short: it’s clear they still want Trump out by any means necessary, which is why their mainstream journalists have done all they could to give the impression that it’s all over but the counting.

It’s not.

Trump’s demeanor in my dream was one of annoyance changing into focused determination – one cannot permanently put down someone with an ego as massive as Trump’s. Similarly, you cannot insult Trumpers because they truly believe their Americanness makes them totally impermeable to serious denigration. This arrogance is the psychological foundation of imperialism – that Western culture can never embarrass itself enough to jeopardize the idea of their natural superiority over others. Anti-Trumpers have this arrogance in the same magnitude, but express it slightly differently.

One cannot understand American political culture if one does not at least occasionally tune into right-wing AM talk radio. This is the only place to find the Christian conservatives who compose one-third of the country (polls show 50% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents call themselves “moderately” or “highly religious”). Due to fanatical Western secularism these people are essentially shut out of mainstream political discourse, but their massive numbers have allowed them to carve out this niche on an antiquated medium.

Every decent journalist should already know this. The US has very few of those (whereas the Iranian press is vibrant and demanding).

This explains why we hear so much talk in the American press about the pernicious influence of “online disinformation” such as the highly-publicized “Stop the Steal” page on Facebook. The out-of-touch US journalist class is totally tech-focused and thus mistakenly believes the primary threat to their narrative dominance is online.

If they would simply turn on the good old radio it would be shocking clear: “Stop the Steal” is the tip of the iceberg and not the work of Iranian or Russian trolls: there is a huge sector of US society which does not believe this election is fair and transparent enough, and they are focused, politically-involved and have the same analytical skills God gave all humans.

You can take down Facebook pages, but the massive audience which right-wing AM radio has enjoyed for decades will still be there. The US MSM has always ignored this medium, mistakenly hoping it would just go away, and thus Iranian and Russian trolls are the culprit.

You couldn’t hear pro-Trump views in the MSM for four years, but 70 million Trump votes shows they actually do exist.

This massive audience is incredibly upset, and on November 4, 2020 they became self-assured that they are not an historical anomaly. Trumpers are currently more emboldened and politically justified than ever and… you expect them to take a knee on their undoubtedly unusual presidential vote? Because the mainstream media says so?

The victory of the “Trumpian Republican” over a media-overhyped “Blue Wave” is totally confirmed, though their figurehead may not survive. That makes them skeptical and upset in massive numbers, but this voice is blocked. This is why if you only tune into mainstream media everything is exactly as it has been for four years: Trump must leave office, and they marshal a ton of experts who prove it.

But turn to the one media source where Trumpers actually feel comfortable talking with other Trumpers and you will find they are also marshalling a ton of experts who are howling with indignation not at the mistreatment of their figurehead but at the way mail-in ballots and questionable 2020 political decisions have called the integrity of US vote structures into question.

Trump is a figurehead, but the elections verify that Trumpism is a real movement. It is based on the idea that America is not the world’s greatest country but the greatest country in the history of mankind. However, the Washington Swamp has corrupted it. Their essential stance is that the November 3rd vote is fine – it’s the people who ran that vote who cannot be trusted and whose work must now be verified.

Trumpers do not want major structural changes – Democrats are more inclined to installing semi-progressive changes – they want different people in office, and (like every other country) people who are more openly reflective of their worldview. Corruption is the primary wellspring of Trumpism, not White supremacism.

Trump gained with every ethnic cohort and gender except White males, after all. Any journalist who keeps talking about White supremacism – as the primary ethos of Trumpism, not as a longstanding and genuine structural problem which includes Democrats as well – is totally wasting your time. Incredibly, there are many of these, and they are the best-paid ones.

Here’s the problem: unless the vote is not just totally counted but also calmly litigated and vetted – precisely because there has been a drastic changing to the 2020 vote forced by the pandemic, the executive orders of state governors and overreaching local officials – half the voting population is going to have major resentment and continued grounds for belief in the corruption of American officials (again, because they believe the structures sent by the archangels Jefferson, Washington and (ugh) Hamilton cannot possibly be at fault).

So Trump and Trumpers – who were not even browbeaten by four years of anti-Trump bias – will not be browbeaten into calling off the vote clarification efforts.

This notion is being trumpeted all over their media, but you have to know where to find them in a very stratified and biased US media. As a journalist I must objectively report (disclaimer: I did not support either candidate) that they sound serious as hell.

Not serious as hell as in right-wing militias shooting up Main Street – that was an absurd distraction with the backing of zero historical precedent – but serious in that they can marshal their own lawyers, analysts, professors, local officials, state officials, poll watchers and regular Joes who all can intellectually defend the idea that they are not going to accept the presidential vote without assurances that it was totally fair. In my journalistic view: they meet the American standard of “reasonable doubt” to merit judicial checking.

And what’s wrong with that? What’s Christian Conservative about demanding modern vote justice via checks and balances? What’s wrong is that it threatens the 1%’s desires.

Remember 2000? Jay Leno’s nightly mocking and the quick trashing of lower class votes?

In 2000 the mood in America was one of total impatience – this is because the imperialist US abhors a vacuum. Somebody must be in charge, if only so they know whom to slavishly follow.

By mid-December Al Gore foolishly quit – denying modern political justice to thousands of Black Floridians –  for what he thought was the good of the nation; to end the perceived nightmare of a very short-term power vacuum. That’s not going to happen this time around.

The US mainstream media is doing all they can to make it happen, but Trumpers have their own media which is mainstream enough to them, and they sure don’t sound like this will be over soon. At least – not to this journalist. Expect the impatience to kick in soon, which is hysterical (the word of 2020), because the inauguration isn’t until late January.

Trump cares mainly about himself, not the nation, which is another reason it’s different this time around.

The 2000 election had two key effects: alienating many Americans from politics while highly polarizing the ones who remained involved. Yet another reason it’s different this time around – less patriotism and more zero-sum game polarization.

In my dream Trump was driving because he truly is in charge – it’s widely acknowledged here that the Trump family will hold the most sway in the Republican Party win or lose. Donald Trump Jr. looks like the heir apparent: he definitely has the media savvy, is all over Fox News (which I assume few “objective” US journalists ever tune into either) and, crucially, his father’s combativeness towards the US establishment. Trumpian Republicans are a force to be reckoned with and will change the country’s politics – however, I contended here that the duopoly’s quicksand will swallow them up and dilute them.

For Iran there is no need to overreact – America has been anti-Iranian Revolution since forever. Trumpians are not original in their pro-Zionism. Who knows what Trumpism will really morph into – maybe their reluctance towards more endless wars will enlighten US foreign policy?

The Donald is still in the driver’s seat, but in my dream it’s notable that we didn’t drive anywhere. Bad omen for him from this news gypsy.


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US elections 2020: Biden wins race for White House as Trump protests

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CNN and AP project that Joe Biden secured majority of electoral college votes as Trump rejects outcome of voting

Harris, the daughter of immigrants, will be America’s first Black woman vice president, and the first vice president of south Asian descent (AFP)

By Ali Harb in Dearborn,

MichiganPublished date: 7 November 2020 16:27 UTC

Democratic candidate Joe Biden has won the US presidential election, defeating President Donald Trump, whose first term in the White House was defined by divisive rhetoric and an erratic foreign policy.

Biden was projected by CNN and AP as the winner of Pennsylvania on Saturday, taking a majority of the electoral college votes needed to secure the presidency. 

In remarks on Friday night, Biden had predicted he would win but had not declared victory.

“The numbers tell us … it’s a clear and convincing story: We’re going to win this race,” Biden said from his home state of Delaware, adding that he and his running mate Kamala Harris were already meeting with experts as they prepared to start their administration on 20 January.

Harris, the daughter of immigrants, will be America’s first woman vice president, first Black vice president and the first vice president of south Asian descent.

“The nightmare is over,” said Abed Ayoub, legal director of the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee (ADC). “For Muslims, Arabs, Black people, brown people, immigrants – it’s been a long four years.”

Ayoub told MEE that US communities of colour lived in daily fear of what Trump may do next. “This gets us back to being able to focus on the issues that matter while knowing that we have a president who views us as a part of this country.”

Trump has been casting doubt about the legitimacy of the vote and challenging the results in states that he lost, claiming baselessly that he won in places that went to Biden or where the counting was still underway.

“I WON THIS ELECTION, BY A LOT!” Trump wrote in an all-caps tweet less than an hour before the race was called for Biden.

Trump also released a statement on Friday accusing Democrats of violating the “basic principles” that only legal votes should count.

“We will pursue this process through every aspect of the law to guarantee that the American people have confidence in our government,” Trump said.

“I will never give up fighting for you and our nation.”

The president had falsely asserted on Thursday that Democrats were trying to “steal” the election with rampant voter fraud. “If you count the legal votes, I easily win,” Trump said. “If you count the illegal votes, they can try to steal the election from us.”

On Wednesday, he had declared victory in Pennsylvania with hundreds of thousands of votes still be counted and said that he had beaten Biden in Michigan, even after the major networks had called the state for the former vice president.

Early results from Tuesday’s election had shown Trump leading in several key states, but 2020 saw an unprecedented number of absentee ballots – which tended to favour Biden – because of the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic.

As absentee votes started counting, Biden gained a lead in Michigan and Wisconsin, two states that he eventually won.

The election broke modern turnout records with about 160 million people – an estimate of more than 66 percent of registered voters – participating in the process.

Biden calls for unity

Early on Thursday, the Biden campaign appeared to dismiss Trump’s protests.  “The United States government is perfectly capable of escorting trespassers out of the White House,” a campaign spokesperson said in a statement.

Earlier this week, Biden sent a message of unity to voters saying that he will govern as a president of all Americans. 

“We are campaigning as a Democrat, but I will govern as an American president the president,” Biden said on Wednesday.

“The presidency itself is not a partisan institution. It is the one office in this nation that represents everyone. It demands a duty of care for all Americans. That is precisely what I will do.”

He also called on Americans to let go of the “harsh rhetoric” and “lower the temperature” in order to remain amicable despite their differences.

But it is apparent that the transition of power will not inspire unity.

Trump is already rejecting the election result and seeking legal action to question it.

“We think there’ll be a lot of litigation because we can’t have an election stolen like this,” Trump said on Thursday.

Democrats have called questioning election results an assault on American democracy, and Biden struck a defiant tone on this front in his speech on Wednesday. “Every vote must be counted. No one’s going to take our democracy away from us – not now, not ever,” he said.

Who is Joe Biden?

Biden, 77, is a veteran US politician who served as vice president in Barack Obama’s administration. He will be the oldest president elected on his inauguration day.

He was first elected to the US Senate in the East Coast state of Delaware in 1972, after starting his political career as a member of a county council. In the Senate, he sat on and chaired various powerful committees.

Before being elected vice president, he served as the head of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. 

He ran for president unsuccessfully in 1988 and 2008, but opted against seeking the White House in 2016.

In his personal life, Biden has endured life-defining tragedies. In 1972, he lost his wife and daughter in a car accident. His son, Beau, died of cancer in 2015.

On the campaign trail this year, he has cited his grief to express empathy with Americans dealing with the fallout of the coronavirus. He presented himself as a unifier seeking to heal the country’s divisions that came to the forefront under Trump.

Hawkish on foreign policy and centrist on domestic issues, Biden represents the old guard of the Democratic Party.

He won the party’s nomination against a surging progressive movement that stood behind Senator Bernie Sanders.

Biden lost the first three primary contests, before winning South Carolina and gaining the endorsement of virtually everyone who was seeking the nomination to eventually defeat Sanders.

The president-elect is a staunch supporter of Israel and has repeatedly described himself as a Zionist. 

This election season, he has dismissed progressives’ calls for conditioning US military aid to Israel, vowing to continue the $3.8bn-annual assistance regardless of anything that the Israeli government may do.

Still, he has condemned Israel’s plans to annex large parts of the West Bank, and in a plan presented to Arab-American communities released earlier this year, he pledged to “work to ensure that Palestinians and Israelis enjoy equal measures of freedom, security, prosperity, and democracy.”

Biden voted for the Iraq war in 2002, but he has distanced himself from that decision since then, citing his efforts to withdraw US troops from Iraq as vice president.

The president-elect has changed some of his foreign policy stances while seeking the presidency this year, including adopting a tough stance towards Saudi Arabia, committing to ending the Riyadh-led war in Yemen and reassessing relations with the kingdom.

The former vice president has also pledged to re-enter to the Iran nuclear deal if Tehran returns to full compliance with the agreement.

The multilateral pact, which was nixed by Trump in 2018, saw Iran scale back its nuclear programme in exchange for lifting sanctions against its economy.

Outreach to Arabs and Muslims

Biden’s campaign made an unprecedented outreach effort to both Arab and Muslim communities, but still faced blowback from advocates who claimed it did not do enough to address policy questions around the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

Earlier this year, the former vice president released a plan for Muslim Americans and a seperate platform for Arab Americans, in which he vowed to reverse Trump’s “Muslim ban” on his first day in office, end the Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) programme and halt US support to the Saudi-led coalition’s war in Yemen.

Arab and Muslim voters appeared to reward those efforts, turning out in large numbers to vote for the Democratic ticket in key states, including Michigan.

Community advocates have been calling for electing Biden to defeat Trump, then holding the new president accountable.

In Dearborn, Michigan, a Detroit suburb known as the capital of Arab America, the election saw increased turnout, with voters overwhelmingly favouring Biden. The former vice president received about 30,000 votes in the city, compared with 13,000 for Trump. 

Dearborn political consultant Hussein Dabajeh told MEE that the community was energised to end Trump’s presidency.

“The community came on and said: You know what, Biden may not be the perfect candidate, but we’ve got to get Trump out of office,” Dabajeh told MEE.

He added that activism does not end with Biden’s presidency, saying that Arab Americans will hold the new president accountable to the promises he made them.

“Our community has matured in a way where we understand that it’s no longer about taking pictures with these elected officials, even if it’s president.”

Sirene Abou-Chakra, an organiser with Arab Americans for Biden, a group that pushed to get the vote out for the Democratic candidate, said community advocates will continue their activism to ensure that the new administration lives up to its “end of the bargain”.

Abou-Chakra said the Arab vote across the country, and in Michigan in particular, has proved its importance for any campaign.

For now, however, she said the news of Biden’s win has undone the anxiety that came with Trump’s victory in 2016. 

“I feel like I can exhale for the first time in four years.”

Related

American Election Is Not a Reset For Better Global Relations

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November 6, 2020

what difference does it make? « Niqnaq

One contradiction about the American presidential election is this: for all the intense media attention and commentary around the world one would expect the result to perhaps portend immense consequence. The mundane reality, though, is that there will be little of appreciable consequence for US relations with the rest of the world.

The United States will continue to conduct itself as if it is above international law, interfering in other nations’ affairs, abusing its privileged dollar fiat currency, and unilaterally using violence and war to enforce its objective when it deems necessary.

Every American president over the past century has engaged in all of these criminal practices. How could we expect any difference with a change of face in a system dictated to by the same corporate power? Only when the system of power fundamentally changes then can we expect to see meaningful change towards the better.

It looks like Democrat contender Joe Biden has won enough votes to gain the White House against incumbent Republican President Donald Trump. The idiosyncrasies of the American electoral system mean that tallying of votes drags on for several days beyond the official election date on November 3. Given the closeness of the race there will also be legal contesting of the results, especially from the Trump campaign which at an early stage has made dubious claims about ballot fraud.

However, as noted above, it hardly matters who finally wins the White House and is inaugurated as the 46th president on January 20. Trump’s past four years have amply demonstrated that any hopes for an improvement in US-Russia relations have been dashed. Trump was not merely held hostage by a revival in Cold War anti-Russian prejudices among the Washington establishment. He lent his own personal touch to deteriorating bilateral relations with such policies as undermining arms controls negotiations as well as attacking Russian energy trade with Europe through the Nord Stream pipeline.

For his part, Biden has voiced more vehement antagonism towards Russia than Trump. There are reasons to be wary of any new White House and how US foreign policy could become marginally even more aggressive.

What is patently clear is how bitterly polarized and divisive US domestic politics have become. This is due to the historic failing of the two-party system which has, over decades, left whole swathes of the population, in particular the majority working class, alienated from the political class. There is irreparable distrust and distortion among the American populace. To the point where it would seem impossible for any nominal winner of the election to be able to command a mandate.

A tried and trusted mechanism for galvanizing is to “unite” the people by rallying them around the flag against some designated foreign enemy. Given the increasing unwieldy, fractious nature of American society, it is all the more imperative for the US ruling class to impose some level of coherence in order to restore the essential authority of governing power. With this paramount need to shore up a sense of authority, it can therefore be expected that American foreign policy will become more aggressive and militaristic in the next four years.

So any notion that the presidential election might permit some kind of benign reset in US global relations is woefully misplaced.

The US ship of state has been on a sped-up course for collision and conflict for many years, if not decades. Changing a captain figurehead in the bridge is not going to change the baleful course that is determined by the power interests of Big Business, Wall Street and the Pentagon’s military-industrial complex in the pursuit of American capitalist profits.

That being said, however, the rest of the world should not let its wariness of Washington’s misconduct allow it to become transfixed by America’s flailing global ambitions. The world has changed dramatically from the bygone days of the US as a formidable superpower. New centers of power have emerged in a multipolar world, in particular the paradigm shift in the global economy to China and Eurasia. Russia and China are steadily solidifying their strategic economic partnership. They will and should continue on this path of co-development with other nations, and let Washington stew in its own failures.

In a very real way, the rest of the world should stop paying so much attention to the American spectacle. It’s like watching a “reality TV show” which has little consequence except sapping the viewer’s energy. Better to get off the proverbial couch and get on with building an alternative, real world.

The views of individual contributors do not necessarily represent those of the Strategic Culture Foundation.

Trump and his Enemies: Election 2020

Trump and his Enemies: Election 2020
https://thesaker.is/trump-and-his-enemies-election-2020/

November 06, 2020

By Larchmonter445 for the Saker Blog

What we see playing out in front of the whole world is the final battle of Trump and his Enemies. The historic vote, the democratic process of the will of the American People, is a sideshow. Atop that election event, which was the largest and most egalitarian in modern U.S. history, is the existential struggle between Donald J. Trump, interloper and paradigm destroyer, and an array of the most powerful U.S. stakeholders, his avowed enemies.

As the legal combat rolls out to try save Trump’s election results, each state or city that Trump’s lawyers challenge in court is a citadel of Trump enemies, some unique, some sub rosa, most flying their colors as adversaries since he unleashed his candidacy for the Executive Power of the Presidency.

There are three key states that are headlining the legal contests—Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Additionally, North Carolina and Georgia present as conflict zones, too, the former holding for Trump, the latter leeching the lead to Biden. Peeling back the Repubs versus the Dems struggle for victory, we discover the enemies are not political foes. We discover the enemies are power foes. Trump came for their power and took the hilltop, the Oval Office. They have spent billions of dollars to dislodge him, to destroy him, to decimate his assets like the ninja blade missile fired at General Soleimani shredded the Iranian’s body.

Trump’s candidacy for a second term relies on winning in all these states. Examining the legal skirmishes in each case, he has little chance of achieving his needed goals. Meanwhile, his winning vote totals are being diminished by the hour as his enemies use century old “vote” manipulations to assure Biden’s victory.

What this is not is an ideological-political fight, though the campaign was overwhelmed with ideological munitions exploding at every level.

The struggle for dominance now underway is about pure power to command the domestic and foreign assets of the United States Government and to influence the corporate assets and human assets of the nation domestically and globally. Trump wants to focus on domestic economic and technological development and GDP growth while his Enemies want to use all the power they need to maintain global hegemony.

Trump took the Presidency in 2016, and with it, the Republican Party, the Conservative movement, and the Evangelical base. Recently, in this election, he expanded the Black, Gay and Hispanic component of the Republican voting base. This has held the Senate for the Republicans and increased the House seats, as well as gaining ground in State governors and State legislatures, critical in a year of Census that determines Congressional districts for the next decade.

Trump immobilized a potential nemesis, the MIC, with $2.5 Trillion in contracts for new weapons and munitions and R&D to pursue offensive and defensive systems that the Russians and Chinese already possess. That he also poured ice water on the Afghan War and the Syrian War, and is chilling the African secret special forces wars did not rattle the corporate pigs who live off defense budgets. But, he has agitated the officer corps that depends on small-scale conflicts that boost their careers with battle ribbons and commendations and keeps them climbing the ladder to ‘stars’ on their shoulders. Without wars, the future is very limited for officers. The careers of officers are pressurized by the Congressional mandate of “up or out”, which is a culling process of either you get promoted up or you are exited out of the active duty service. The best insurance of constant career advancement is perpetual wars, small and laden with proxies actually doing the fighting and dying. The US officer corps has lived on these regional wars for many decades. Trump threatens them by shutting the Presidential valves that sustain such ventures. Many officers have spoken out against Trump.

A brief tour of what was done early on and during the campaign to stop Trump from winning outright is necessary. This year, after three years of false accusations of being a stooge for Russia, colluding with Putin, the House impeached Trump for a phone call to Zelensky, President of Ukraine, fabricating a deal was proposed, quid pro quo, that would benefit Trump. Immediately disproved with the official transcript of said phone call, the country and Trump were nonetheless put through the agony of the one-party impeachment which was instantly killed in womb (Pelosi’s or Schiff’s, it was never established), but the demon was dead on arrival. It cost Trump prestige and some votes in the middle. Mud sticks and stains in politics. Bullshit does, also, and stinks for quite some time, too.

Then Covid hit the nation. Trump worked assiduously as President to use US influence and domestic resources to get PPEs, ventilators, swabs and tests, and hospitals ready for an onslaught of patients. He used national presidential powers to get corporations to manufacture ventilators. He coaxed the Big Pharma corporations to push out therapeutics and to design a mass manufacturing of vaccines. He broke the inertia in the Homeland Security, CDC and FDA and dissolved red tape and traditional foot-dragging to get emergency approvals of whatever looked promising to mitigate, moderate and stop the virus from harming or killing the infected. He created a national task force that incorporated all branches of the military to solve all logistical issues that arose and might arise as testing, therapeutics and vaccine would roll out in hot spots Dr. Birx determined and then into regions and states the epidemic modelers directed. Trump was far ahead of the curve on everything a President could do.

Most importantly, in the single decision that had to be made, to close the nation’s economy and get tens of millions of businesses to shut down while employees stayed safely at home as the virus swept around the country, he did it when the ‘scientists’ and ‘doctors’ advised him to. It was the death knell of his economic success and tore the foundation from his re-election campaign.

Trump would have been unstoppable in 2020 election if not for the shutdown. It cost millions of Americans their income, their jobs, their businesses and impacted their children who were subject to digital home schooling because all their schools were closed, K-12 and colleges and universities, too. The Covid deaths and fears would not have stopped him.

The collapse of the economy altered the Trump MAGA success. His re-election would have been an historic landslide and wipeout of the Dems, likely winning the House back, also. Certainly, he would have won 40 of the 50 states.

What Covid did was give the Dems a campaign issue that along with the 3+ years of demonization, the impeachment, the investigations, the Infowar, the sabotage and treachery by the Intel agencies and State Dept., all the legal cases against Trump allies by Muller, the prolonged agony of General Flynn made by a Federal DC judge, enabled by the Appeals Court, made the false charge that Trump did not listen to the doctors and scientists stick.

Trump never made a false move, never went against science. He pushed the envelope to get breakthroughs. He was ahead of the curve, and the economy coming back so swiftly and strongly proves he did everything correctly. He saved lives and saved the economy. But it cost him support at the ballot box. He was pilloried by MSM and Dems, and demagogued by the Biden campaign. All false charges. But they stuck.

The one thing that Trump could not do in the fight against Covid was direct and order 50 states to act in concert. The Federal system of states left governors in charge of the fate of their citizens, and many governors, Dems all of them, messed up, acted late, made the wrong decisions. Their failures were heaped on Trump by the Media and the very Dem governors who caused a large percentage of the deaths by the virus.

The facts are the facts. In New York, Governor Cuomo caused thousands of deaths in nursing homes. He did not use thousands of beds provided by Trump in the Javits Center and on the Naval hospital ship, all of which Cuomo had requested. He did not even use a 110-bed tent facility in Central Park provided for him by Samaritan’s Purse. Culpability in New York alone was criminal and accounted for 40% of US deaths by Covid. Trump, however, got covered with the mud from Cuomo’s mess.

The final poison arrow from Covid’s quiver was Trump got infected. He quickly proved his amazing genetic health and recovered, experimenting upon himself with emergency-approved (due to his prior swift actions) therapeutics. The entire ordeal (which also touched his wife, Melania and son, Baron) cost him two weeks of vital campaigning. The ironically named by him, China virus, had come to ruin his re-election as if Zhongnanhai had intended to inflict him with the novel Corona virus. Fate or karma had entered the campaign.

We can uncover his thinly veiled enemies as we look closely at the States ‘counting’ the votes. Perhaps, the verb ‘compiling’ the votes is best used because any freshman observer of what has traditionally and continually occurred where and when needed is not mere vote counting. We see the completion of vote counting of the opponents largest haul (in this case, Trump’s bastions) and then, calculating with simple arithmetic, addition and subtraction, as the long night (always), with delays (always) and the days or weeks needed to ‘find’ the votes needed to overcome his total in order to create victory for Biden. Compiling votes is what we see going on in these key states.

This compiling is an art form, a tradecraft, indeed, a tradecraft used by State Dept. and CIA to win victories for satraps the US wants to win or hold power in other countries’ elections. In parts of the U.S., in Democrat vales and burgs, it is learned with mother’s milk. Professionals handle the task. I have personally seen it in operation in Florida, in New Jersey and in California. When it comes time to “count the votes”, the pros appear. Some know their names. Whether the system of voting is machines, punch cards, ink fill-ins, magical things occur. This is the final step of stealing an election.

Worse awaited Trump as he roared around the nation, rallying his voters by the tens of thousands, some days doing five rallies. Enemies lurked among the 19,000 counties of the United States where the votes of 2020 would be tallied. Some enemies, no doubt, were ideological, political foes. Some were institutional, government employees who feared four years of coming reforms that might likely cost them their jobs. Others were sore losers and turncoat Republicans who lost in 2016. A few were billionaires, oligarchs of high tech, whose demi-god status in the Liberal Cult was defied by the upstart Trump who would never kneel before their billions and influence. A ground swell for breaking up some of the big tech corporations and regulating them seemed primed for his second term.

The oligarchs sent their money to pay for the work needed to stop Trump. They sent billions of dollars mostly for negative advertising and for social media memes picked up by MSM as themes of the day, all rancid attacks against Trump.

Proven social and political science: negative advertising works. It depresses voting turnout and suppresses votes for the target. It eats at the undecided and independents who otherwise would have voted for the target. Billions of dollars of negative ads stopped the Red Wave. Turnout was historic, and the Republicans gained ground, but the landslide Trump needed was stopped.

The oligarchs who control all social media, also leveraged their platform’s influence and impact worth hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars, to manipulate discourse, Internet search, government officials’ statements, tweets and re-tweets, advertising and digital content. Namely, Mark Zuckerberg, Jack Dorsey, Tim Cook, Sundar Pichai, Sergey Brin, Larry Page, and Eric Schmidt were allied against Trump. Jeff Bezos, through his Washington Post, contributed the devastating suppression poll of a 17 pt. Biden lead in Wisconsin. Publicized nationally, that was a very powerful negative cast against the Trump campaign in the last days of the campaign. In addition, Bloomberg and George Soros injected hundreds of millions of dollars in the election in the swing states.

Nevada: Harry Reid, former Senate Majority Leader, operates a political machine in the state, openly hostile to Trump. The unionized casino employees, culinary workers union of 60,000, and thousands of illegals who worked construction, landscaping and low level jobs in Reno and Las Vegas, coalesced against Trump. Most all of these two groups are unemployed due to Covid shutdown, with thousands illegally voting, while many worked were paid Biden and Dem campaign volunteers.

Arizona: John McCain’s family, livid at the insults to John by Trump, were openly allied with NeverTrumpers like Jeff Flake and Mitt Romney, most importantly the Bush dynasty operatives all of whom hate Trump for his humiliating defeat of Jeff Bush campaigned against Trump. This hatred of Trump manifested into an irrational undermining of the campaign of Senator Martha McSally. One would think that Martha McSally as a combat A-10 Warthog pilot and group commander with years of active warfare experience would be a natural successor to the McCain Senate seat. However, her career as a combat pilot was a success that dwarfed the disastrous McCain career. So the McCains chose to work against her and Trump, especially when Trump backed her strongly. Arizona also has substantial illegals, useful to work and vote against Trump’s campaign because in a second term, they would likely be deported. Finally, Blue State émigrés from California have populated Maricopa County and voted against Trump as they would have in California. Their vote in Arizona made a difference.

Pennsylvania: The Philly Dem political machine is historic and perpetual. They cheat in local, state and federal elections and have for a century. Additionally, the Hillary Clinton-family machine is alive and well, ever ready to deliver votes when needed in the Commonwealth. Her father was from Scranton, she and her brothers and Bill had a political machine that could deliver to her most of the state except the Philadelphia region. She certainly activated her machine to work against Trump. Watch the grin on Ed Rendell’s face when Pennsylvania is stolen for Biden. He’s always been out front for the Clintons.

Georgia: There is a cadre of Black officials who projected the drumbeat of “Trump is a Racist”, the chanting led by the Atlanta mayor. Countering this propaganda, Trump had the personal endorsement of the greatest athlete Georgia ever produced, Herschel Walker, who has had a 37-year friendship with Trump and campaigned for Trump. Making these officials livid, too, was the relationship Trump had with Martin Luther King, Jr.’s niece, Dr. Alveda King. She testified endlessly that Trump was no racist. Nonetheless, the massive Black vote was tainted away from Trump, though he made larger than predicted inroads with Blacks in other venues.

North Carolina is now a state heavily influenced by Virginia’s shift to Blue. Sections of the state, where high tech industry abounds, are ideologically liberal and created enough barrier against Trump sweeping the state. Details haven’t emerged about how this state is now subject to delivery to Biden unless Trump’s margin can hold.

However, the elites, oligarchs, status quo stakeholders, criminal officials, the corrupted, deep state operatives, shadow government bureaucrats, influencers, neocons, and a sea of demented activists have waged a war to prevent a second term for Trump.

They sought Power and, apparently, will seize it soon.

###

—Larchmonter445

الانتخابات الأميركيّة: أموات يصوّتون… شراء أصوات وألاعيب على الطريقة اللبنانيّة

باريس – نضال حمادة

قد تكون إحدى حسنات دونالد ترامب وهي قليلة على أية حال كشفه لتركيبة النظام الأميركي بشكل فضائحي على المستويات كافة، وخروجه الدائم عن المعايير المتبعة في التعاطي مع كلّ ما يتعلق بالمظهر العام للنظام في أميركا.

ترامب يعود الآن في خضمّ الانتخابات الرئاسية ليكشف عن فضائح النظام الأميركي الانتخابي ما يضعه في خانة النظام الانتخابي الذي يمكن التحكم به والتلاعب بآلياته وبالتالي بنتيجته، ولطالما تفاخرت أميركا على الآخرين أنها الديمقراطية الأولى ليأتي رئيس أميركي ويكذّب هذه المزاعم.

في جديد ما كشفت عنه الانتخابات الأميركية الحالية عملية تصويت الأموات او تنخيبهم، وهذا أمر تعوّد عليه الشعب اللبناني لكن أن يكون هذا الأمر متبعاً في أميركا، فهذا الشيء الجديد ولا ندري أيّ طرف أعطى الطرف الآخر براءة الاختراع هذه، اللبناني أعطاها للأميركي أم العكس هو الصحيح، لكن في هذه النقطة تساوى لبنان وأميركا.

أمر آخر كشفته تصريحات حملة ترامب وتغريدة لترامب نفسه على «تويتر» قبل أن يتمّ حذفها من إدارة موقع التواصل الإجتماعي بحجة أنها مخادعة. وهذا الأمر هو دفع الرشى لكسب الأصوات، وهذا الأمر تمّ في بعض الولايات المتأرجحة القرار حسب إدارة حملة ترامب التي قرّرت رفع دعاوى وتقديم طعون بسبب استخدام الأموال والإعلام ونفوذ وادي سيليكون ضدّ ترامب في الانتخابات.

من ناحية الديمقراطيين ذكرت صحيفة «ديلي ميل» المقرّبة من الحزب الديمقراطي أنّ المسؤولين عن حملة ترامب الانتخابية حرّضوا ناشطي الحزب الجمهوري في ولايات عدة على الاتصال بناشطين من الحزب نفسه في ولاية بنسلفانيا للإدلاء بأصواتهم بشكل متأخر ومشكوك بشرعيته حتى يتسنّى لمحامي ترامب تقديم الطعون ورفع الدعاوى لوضع الشكوك في العملية الانتخابيّة وإلغائها معتمدين على توثيق توقيت الانتخاب المتأخر خارج المهلة الزمنية للانتخابات.

من جهة أخرى يتّهم الديمقراطيّون روسيا وإيران بإنشاء مئات الحسابات الوهميّة على «تويتر» و»فيسبوك» للتأثير على العملية الانتخابية في أميركا، وقد وضع المسؤولون الأمنيّون في جهاز «أف بي أي» الأميركي بروتوكلَي عمل مع كلّ من شركتي «تويتر» و»فيسبوك» للحدّ من التأثيرات في وسائل التواصل الاجتماعي على الانتخابات الأميركية…

Banana Follies: The Mother of All Color Revolutions

November 06, 2020

Banana Follies: The Mother of All Color Revolutions

by Pepe Escobar and cross-posted with Asia Times

A gaming exercise of the perfect, indigenous color revolution, code-named Blue, was leaked from a major think tank established in the imperial lands that first designed the color revolution concept.

Not all the information disclosed here about the gaming of Blue has been declassified. That may well elicit a harsh response from the Deep State, even as a similar scenario was gamed by an outfit called Transition Integrity Project.

Both scenarios should qualify as predictive programming – with the Deep State preparing the general public, in advance, for exactly how things will play out.

The standard color revolution playbook rules they usually start in the capital city of nation-state X, during an election cycle, with freedom fighting “rebels” enjoying full national and international media support.

Blue concerns a presidential election in the Hegemon. In the gaming exercise, the incumbent president, codenamed Buffon, was painted Red. The challenger, codenamed Corpse, was painted Blue.

Blue – the exercise – went up a notch because, compared to its predecessors, the starting point was not a mere insurgency, but a pandemic. Not any pandemic, but a really serious, bad to the bone global pandemic with an explosive infection fatality rate of less than 1%.

By a fortunate coincidence, the lethal pandemic allowed Blue operators to promote mail-in ballots as the safest, socially distant voting procedure.

That connected with a rash of polls predicting an all but inevitable Blue win in the election – even a Blue Wave.

The premise is simple: take down the economy and deflate a sitting president whose stated mission is to drive a booming economy. In tandem, convince public opinion that actually getting to the polls is a health hazard.

The Blue production committee takes no chances, publicly announcing they would contest any result that contradicts the prepackaged outcome: Blue’s final victory in a quirky, anachronistic, anti-direct democracy body called the “electoral college”.

If Red somehow wins, Blue would wait until every vote is counted and duly litigated to every jurisdiction level. Relying on massive media support and social media marketing propelled to saturation levels, Blue proclaims that “under no scenario” Red would be allowed to declare victory.

Countdown to magic voting

Election Day comes. Vote counting is running smoothly – mail-in count, election day count, up to the minute tallies – but mostly favoring Red, especially in three states always essential for capturing the presidency. Red is also leading in what is characterized as “swing states”.

But then, just as a TV network prematurely calls a supposedly assured Red state for Blue, all vote-counting stops before midnight in major urban areas in key swing states under Blue governors, with Red in the lead.

Blue operators stop counting to check whether their scenario towards a Blue victory can roll out without bringing in mail-in ballots. Their preferred mechanism is to manufacture the “will of the people” by keeping up an illusion of fairness.

Yet they can always rely, as Plan B, on urban mail-in ballots on tap, hot and cold, until Blue squeaks by in two particularly key swing states that Red had bagged in a previous election.

That’s what happens. Starting at 2 am, and later into the night, enter a batch of “magic” votes in these two key states. The sudden, vertical upward “adjustment” includes the case of a batch of 130k+ pro-Blue votes cast in a county alongside not a single pro-Red vote – a statistical miracle of Holy Ghost proportions.

Stuffing the ballot box is a typical scam applied in Banana Republic declinations of color revolution. Blue operators use the tried and tested method applied to the gold futures market, when a sudden drop of naked shorts drives down gold price, thus protecting the US dollar.

Blue operators bet the compliant mainstream media/Big Tech alliance will not question that, well, out of the blue, the vote would swing towards Blue in a 2 to 3 or 3 to 4 margin.

They bet no questions will be asked on how a 2% to 5% positive ballot trend in Red’s favor in a few states turned into a 0.5% to 1.4% trend in favor of Blue by around 4am.

And that this discrepancy happens in two swing states almost simultaneously.

And that some precincts turn more presidential votes than they have registered voters.

And that in swing states, the number of extra mysterious votes for Blue far exceeds votes cast for the Senate candidates in these states, when the record shows that down ticket totals are traditionally close.

And that turnout in one of these states would be 89.25%.

The day after Election Day there are vague explanations that one of the possible vote-dumps was just a “clerical error”, while in another disputed state there is no justification for accepting ballots with no postmark.

Blue operators relax because the mainstream media/Big Tech alliance squashes each and every complaint as “conspiracy theories”.

The Red counter-revolution

The two presidential candidates do not exactly help their own cases.

Codename Corpse, in a Freudian slip, had revealed his party had set up the most extensive and “diverse” fraud scheme ever.

Not only Corpse is about to be investigated for a shady computer-related scheme. He is a stage 2 dementia patient with a rapidly unraveling profile – kept barely functional by drugs, which can’t prevent his mind slowly shutting down.

Codename Buffoon, true to his instincts, goes pre-emptive, declaring the whole election a fraud but without offering a smoking gun. He is duly debunked by the mainstream media/Big Tech alliance for spreading “false claims”.

All this is happening as a wily, old, bitter operator not only had declared that the only admissible scenario was a Blue victory; she had already positioned herself for a top security job.

Blue also games that Red would immediately embark on a single-minded path ahead: regiment an army of lawyers demanding access to every registration roll to scrub, review and verify each and every mail-in ballot, a process of de facto forensic analysis.

Yet Blue cannot foresee how many fake ballots will be unveiled during recounts.

As Corpse is set to declare victory, Buffon eyes the long game, set to take the whole thing all the way to the Supreme Court.

The Red machine had already gamed it – as it was fully aware of how operation Blue would be played.

The Red counter-revolution does carry the potential of strategically checkmating Blue.

It is a three-pronged attack – with Red using the Judiciary Committee, the Senate and the Attorney General, all under the authority of codename Buffoon until Inauguration Day. The end game after a vicious legal battle is to overthrow Blue.

Red’s top operators have the option of setting up a Senate commission, or a Special Counsel, at the request of the Judiciary Committee, to be appointed by the Department of Justice to investigate Corpse.

In the meantime, two electoral college votes, one-month apart, are required to certify the presidential winner.

These votes will happen in the middle of one and perhaps two investigations focused on Corpse. Any state represented at the electoral college may object to approving an investigated Corpse; in this case, it’s illegal for that state to allow its electors to certify the state’s presidential results.

Corpse may even be impeached by his own party, under the 25th Amendment, due to his irreversible mental decline.

The resulting chaos would have to be resolved by the Red-leaning Supreme Court. Not exactly the outcome favored by Blue.

The House always wins

The heart of the matter is that this think tank gaming transcends both Red and Blue. It’s all about the Deep State’s end game.

There’s nothing like a massive psy ops embedded in a WWE-themed theater under the sign of Divide and Rule to pit mob vs. mob, with half of the mob rebelling against what it perceives as an illegitimate government. The 0.00001% comfortably surveys the not only metaphorical carnage from above.

Even as the Deep State, using its Blue minions, would never have allowed codename Buffoon to prevail, again, domestic Divide and Rule might be seen as the least disastrous outcome for the world at large.

A civil war context in theory distracts the Deep State from bombing more Global South latitudes into the dystopian “democracy” charade it is now enacting.

And yet a domestic Empire of Chaos gridlock may well encourage more foreign adventures as a necessary diversion to tie the room together.

And that’s the beauty of the Blue gaming exercise: the House wins, one way or another.

Results are in: Americans lose, duopoly wins, Trumpism wasn’t a cult of personality (2/2)

Friday, 06 November 2020 7:58 AM [ Last Update: Friday, 06 November 2020 8:05 AM ]

Source

US Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) (L) talks with Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) during a rally with fellow Democrats before voting on H.R. 1, or the People Act, on the East Steps of the US Capitol on March 08, 2019 in Washington, DC. (AFP photo)
The duopoly will never enact the one change which would immediately improve American political culture for the better.
Results are in: Americans lose, duopoly wins, Trumpism not merely a cult (1/2)
Ramin Mazaheri is currently covering the US elections. He is the chief correspondent in Paris for PressTV and has lived in France since 2009. He has been a daily newspaper reporter in the US, and has reported from Iran, Cuba, Egypt, Tunisia, South Korea and elsewhere. He is the author of ‘Socialism’s Ignored Success: Iranian Islamic Socialism’as well as ‘I’ll Ruin Everything You Are: Ending Western Propaganda on Red China’, which is also available in simplified and traditional Chinese.

By Ramin Mazaheri

For Americans who believe that their system is actually capable of reform it would be nice if Trumpism was merely a cult of personality, but the 2020 non-presidential election results prove it truly is more than that. I think non-Americans grasp this even if Americans do not, as they are so effectively propagandised by an intensely corrupt Washington elite and their media sycophants.

That last declaration was my attempt to sum up the true motivation of roughly 50% of the American population: Trump was elected by addressing not White supremacists who feel they have lost out in a new world they are (it is derisively implied) too stupid to compete in, but by addressing those who feel scammed and disgusted by the decisions of the political and cultural elite over the past 30 years.

There’s a huge, huge national problem when such a feeling motivates half a nation inside the polling booth, no?

And the biggest problem is something PressTV tried to address in our coverage of the election from the start: the refusal of the world’s oldest and strongest duopoly to allow third party, alternative voices to be heard, much less have some political or cultural power.

The duopoly will never enact the one change which would immediately improve American political culture for the better – ending their hugely divisive “winner take all/first past the post” system. Far more than their Electoral College, this explains the intense division and animosity over here.

The “only one or the other has a real chance” duopoly means roughly 50% of Americans will soon feel that their vote was worthless… which it will be. But moving to a coalition-type system would instantly mean a reduction in the power and privileges of the duopoly, which is why they so shamelessly enact obstacles for third parties that it renders the US election system not free nor fair.

“Democracy with American characteristics” in the 21st century means a never-ending duopoly, where citizens go to boarded up polling places on streets emptied of civilians but full of security forces, as if they are going to war and not just to vote like a normal person. 

Because Trump posed a threat to the duopoly, they and their 1% allies absolutely freaked out in 2016 and spent four years throwing everything they had at him to boot him out by any means necessary. The cost was absolutely enormous on a cultural level. 

Trump used and joined the duopoly – Trumpism inherently resists it

Part 1 described the basic ideology of Trumpism, but to recap: not mere White supremacism but anti-globalism, pro-national sovereignty, anti-censorship and anti-foreign wars, but also being hysterically anti-government and anti-social safety net.

But more time was spent relain how the MSM’s so-called “Blue Wave” was a huge failure – it’s like American conservatives fended off the Tet Offensive. Trump the man seems on course to lose, yet Trumpism helped the new so-called “Trumpian Republicans” sweep to dominance.

Call it the Flatworm Phenomenon: Democrats may succeed in chopping off the head but the body will undoubtedly live, election results prove.

Mother nature is a mad scientist, but realise that we are examining a phenomenon which exists in the world’s most effective duopoly: What has been verified this week is that the Republican Swamp has so very effectively absorbed the blow of Trumpism, which should have been enough to create a new third party.

This will allow the Republican elite and establishment to eventually dilute and soften “Trumpism”, rather than giving America a truly new start and somewhat revolutionary clean break. This is how extremely effective the duopoly is when confronted with any grassroots movement. The only winners in the American duopoly are the richest 1%, of course, not ever a grassroots anything. 

The Republican side of the duopoly did this with the post-Great Recession Tea Party, and they have long co-opted Libertarian ideas while still keeping that party perpetually under the key 5% vote mark, but neither ever had the widespread appeal of Donald Trump.

On the other side, this absorption allows the other side of the duopoly to not be shaken by the end of the duopoly. A Trump presidential loss will mean the Clintonista faction (the far right) of the Democratic Party – which has ruled since 1992, the end of the Soviet Union – has cover to not make any changes either. They lost everything else, but they beat Trump – they can crow about this endlessly, as the duopoly controls the media here.

So the greatest domestic significance of a loss by Trump the man is the victory of the duopoly. Personally, I find a “victory for the duopoly” nothing to celebrate.

I think Trumpers may not voice these views specifically with great regularity, these analyses would be accepted by them? However, even pro-Trump forces are nominally pro-duopoly in their essential conservatism. Trumpism is not revolutionary – I am not asserting that, but I am asserting it is fundamentally anti-duopoly (without really knowing it, because “duopoly” is so rarely spoken aloud here) because Trumpism is so anti-Washington Swamp corruption.

Of course, Trump himself is not Lenin – Trump has not the intellectual capacity nor the ideological rigour to form a new party. Trump the man has no ideology except “I am the best”, but that doesn’t mean his followers are all pure narcissists as well. This is another reason a Trumpist third party did not emerge to stop the duopoly’s destruction of their charismatic, essentially apolitical leader.

Trump changed his party affiliation five times – if anything he fits in another duopoly-suppressed category of American voter: the independent. We must remember that the Republican half of the duopoly resisted Trump until as late as possible: it was not until May of 2016, when he was voted in via the grassroots Republican primaries, that the Republican establishment finally accepted him. But that’s the party elite – 2020’s widespread victories of “Trumpian Republicans” proves that Trumpism won despite an unprecedented four-year mobilisation of the massive forces of 1% and the Democratic Party.

Trump might have been able to take on the duopoly, but not in 1 term

Trump might have been able to take on the duopoly in 2016, but the most common thing I’ve heard from pro-Trumpers is that, “They didn’t let him drain the swamp”. And that’s true: from the immediate Department of Justice’s veritable entrapment (they dropped the original charges) of his original National Security Advisor, Michael Flynn, to a “Mueller Report” which did not even indict (much less convict) a single American on charges of election conspiracy or collusion, to a three-year Russophobia campaign, to a totally partisan impeachment campaign – Trump spent four years obstructed and hobbled by nonsense.

Of course, Trump was obstructed by his own nonsense: his desire to be loved by all, and that included a duopoly which hates him, and his lack of any real political ideology beyond narcissism. That is why Trump was always a mere figurehead. If Trump finagles a second term the widespread hope in America and beyond is that he would finally ignore the duopoly’s efforts and really do something which breaks from 30 years of Washington’s anti-99% corruption.

But back in 2016 despite his undeniably immense appeal the US duopoly was so strong that Trump simply could not have been elected without joining one of them – he used the duopoly, and has rather significantly transformed both sides. The Republican elite hated him, and then merely tolerated him, but Trump had astoundingly high approval ratings among Republican Party members, and they have responded: Trumpism has changed the Republican Party at the grassroots. The short-term vision of future America must include this new reality, but also combine it with the Democrat’s near-total 2020 failure, which makes them now hobbled to achieve much-needed and much-wanted improvements in the social safety net, health care, the environment etc. and etc. and etc. The Democrats will shift to the right, yet again.

As I wrote: the duopoly’s rabid anti-Trumpism has cost this country’s 99% a great deal, sadly.

I am not writing in favor of Trumpism nor in condemnation of it – I am trying to do something rare: give objective journalism about America in November 2020. Trumpism was, like the Yellow Vests, slandered and distorted because it reflected the political ideas of so-called “White Trash”, but class analysis insists that they are not trash, and good reporting of the election results prove that a racial analyst is woefully inadequate (as usual).

You can dislike it all you want, but Trumpism is obviously a genuine, authentic movement, and 2020 confirms it was even a successful one.

But we should expect that the duopoly swamp has done what it always does: swallow up, dilute and suck out any of the ideas which could create actual reforms to the nation’s aristocratic, privilege-protecting, 18th century-based, hysterically evangelical, capitalist-imperialist duopoly.

It’s hard for me to say, “Yay Trumpism!” but it’s also hard to say, “Yay, the duopoly survived Trump!”

The latter is what the global corporate media is insisting we do, certainly, but many Trumpers are going to be inflamed that the duopoly combined its forces to defeat their candidate at only one level – the chief executive. 

This feeling will only increase as long as people continue to arrogantly demonise Trumpism and refuse to look at this political movement with logic, dispassion and a feeling of patriotism or human warmth. The only thing I will absolutely promise is that the cultural division wreaked to suppress Trumpism will continue to have have hugely debilitating and polarising domestic affects for the rest of this decade. 

If Trump loses the American duopoly stands – shakier than in recent memory, yes, but it stands. I think many Trumpers understood that and that helps explain their vote, but rabid anti-Trumpers are too propagandised to allow Trump to continue his insolent and inherent questioning of the integrity of the US system.


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Results are in: Americans lose, duopoly wins, Trumpism not merely a cult (1/2)

US Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) (L) talks with Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) during a rally with fellow Democrats before voting on H.R. 1, or the People Act, on the East Steps of the US Capitol on March 08, 2019 in Washington, DC. (AFP photo)
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden walks out of The Queen theater on November 05, 2020 in Wilmington, Delaware. (AFP photo)
Results are in: Americans lose, duopoly wins, Trumpism not merely a cult (1/2)
Ramin Mazaheri is currently covering the US elections. He is the chief correspondent in Paris for PressTV and has lived in France since 2009. He has been a daily newspaper reporter in the US, and has reported from Iran, Cuba, Egypt, Tunisia, South Korea and elsewhere. He is the author of ‘Socialism’s Ignored Success: Iranian Islamic Socialism’as well as ‘I’ll Ruin Everything You Are: Ending Western Propaganda on Red China’, which is also available in simplified and traditional Chinese.

November 05, 2020

(Part 1)

By Ramin Mazaheri for The Saker Blog and cross-posted with Press TV

It’s Day 3 of the US Election Debacle and – as we’re still mid-debacle – it’s very possible that Donald Trump will be the only conservative casualty, because it’s already certain the US election was an undeniable disaster for Democrats.

The Democrats had everything on their side in 2020: the mainstream media, the Deep State, the (self-professed) moral high ground, more campaign money than ever, a hysterically-motivated base – and yet if Trump does end up winning Democrats will have nothing to show for all that.

That should be stunning news. Here is the roundup of the non-presidential elections:

Republicans now hold 60% of state legislatures (where the most far-reaching policies are decided in this extremely decentralised, pioneer-influenced system), half of all state governorships, they’ll almost certainly keep a majority in the Senate, they shockingly reduced the Democratic majority in the House of Representatives, conservatives just got a 6-3 majority in the Supreme Court, and at the local judicial level Americans judges are already so conservative that it’s infamously said that they “never see corruption”.

(In the United States “corruption”, much like “propaganda”, is something only found in other countries, of course.)

So if Democratic leadership (dominated by the Clintonista faction) is not corrupt than they surely are incompetent, no? Despite every cultural, political and financial advantage – truly an unprecedented situation – they might walk away with only decapitating the figurehead of Trumpism.

It’s a second consecutive enormous failure by whoever is planning Democratic Party strategy – they now have two black eyes, even if they oust Trump. That’s good news for the Sandernista faction, but their blacklist of Iranian media shows how fake-leftist they really are.

The American commentariat is admitting the major Democratic defeat, but it’s being currently obscured by the presidential vote debacle, which is turning out like we all expected: judges will decide and not voters.

The US, it must be remembered, has always been a lawyer-dominated system. That is what “rule of law” really means in the West: domination by aristocratic lawyers, as opposed to worker domination, God domination, vanguard party domination, elders domination and all the other available options. The outsider Trump threatened this domination, and thus the US political elite seemingly did all they could to ensure that the presidential vote would be disputed in order to ensure control by this societal sector which they came from, control and rewrite at will.

Kill a snake’s head and the snake dies, but 70+ million Trump voters are not snakes but humans

Putting aside the uncertain fate of Trump himself, the 2020 election results already objectively insist that main failure of Democrats was due to their insistence that Trumpism was merely a cult of personality.

This allowed them to not seriously evaluate the true democratic electability of their policies, personalities, principles and job performance: they refused to admit that Trump incarnated actual political ideas and that he genuinely reflected authentic some cultural ideas and trends. By failing to understand that Trumpism was a democratic force which must be accounted for, the electoral reckoning was emphatically anti-Democratic Paty in spite of their unprecedented advantages.

The Democrats chose to rely on sensationalistic fear-mongering: Trumpism was based on White supremacy; White militias are about to shoot up Main Street.

Oh really? I think they failed to understand that both of these hysterical assertions were always going to be easily provable no later than November 4, 2020:

So Trump’s increased 2020 vote totals in Black and Latino communities – they are White supremacists too? Of course not – there is something deeper than what Democrats claim. Since election day American cities are mostly ghost towns – maybe 1,000 anti-Trumpers marched in Chicago, even smaller numbers of pro-Trumpers rallied at voting booths, but the mainstream media warned for months that semi-automatic fire was actually going to be seen beyond the governmentally-abandoned African-American ghetto for the first time ever… so where is it?

This was always absurd, stupid, lazy, hysterical thinking, and it was exactly like what they did in France to their Yellow Vests, whom I covered more than probably any other reporter working in either English or French: accusing these movements of White supremacism and anti-Semitism was always a way to discredit and ultimately suppress the political analyses of the lower classes, and especially of those whom Americans descriptively call “White Trash”.

But Trump supporters are not all White nor does their poverty or lack of a vastly overrated college degree make them human “trash”; French Arabs supported the Yellow Vests as much as any other Frenchman. Sadly, this is all something the corporate media cannot allow to be said openly, so there is widespread misunderstanding.

We must ask why that is?

The answer lies in the domination of democratic structures in the West by their 1%. The backbone of the Western system is not lower-middle class mullahs, nor cobblers-turned-parlimentarians in Cuba, nor a communist party whose acceptance rate is on par with the American “Ivy League” of universities – the backbone of the Western system is exactly like shah-era Iran: a tiny coterie of a few dozen rich families, and then a small percentage of the population who are handed some of the wealth and stability produced by the toil of the nation’s masses in exchange for defending the few dozen gangster families.

And the backbone is also something else, which like “propaganda” and “corruption”, is never discussed in the US mainstream: duopoly. But this is the subject for Part Two – let’s wrap up the reality of Trumpism’s victory even amid a possible defeat by Trump.

Many of the newly-elected Republicans are widely called “Trumpian” – this does not mean they are parading around with gilt-framed pictures of The Donald but that they have adopted many of his policies, such as anti-globalisation, anti-censorship, economic patriotism, sovereignty and – crucially for the world – a reluctance for more endless imperialist wars.

The adjective “Trumpian” does imply negative policies: a hard line on immigration, a sinful and useless arrogance that America is the greatest country in the history of mankind (that is a direct quote – you hear it all the time in public over here) and a Red Scare-like hysteria against the socialist-inspired ideas of a strong central government and economic redistribution.

(What’s so telling about the US is that the word “socialism” is never uttered by their alleged left wing – even the Bernie Sanders-linked Democratic Socialists of America are so timid and so propagandised that they absurdly and incorrectly added the adjective “Democratic” in front of socialism. “Socialism” in the United States is a word only heard when hysterically screamed by the right-wing, and it is hysterically screamed by them all the time, I can report.)

But the election confirms that Trumpism is an ideology and not merely a one-time cult of personality.

Trump the man is unpleasant (to be polite) but that personal judgment is far, far less relevant than the cultural-political ideas it is now clear that he – for better or for worse – genuinely reflected and clearly fostered. My point here is not to condone nor condemn these cultural-political ideas – I am merely saying: there are genuine ideas here which are authentically championed by a very large part of the US public. It is bad journalism to ignore this and scream “White supremacism!”.

But the US media and chattering class is another huge election night loser along with the Democratic Party – both were totally wrong about a non-existent “Blue Wave” and the denial of Trump’s grassroots appeal.

Their only hope is Trump loses and they keep chattering uselessly about that to deflect attention from that submerged part of the iceberg which they got all wrong journalistically. All I can say as a journalist is: you get it wrong, you get demoted – you lose your twice-weekly editorial sport, you no longer are on the editorial board, etc. Back to the street for you. At least ideally.

Will there be consequences for getting it wrong for the failed Democratic elite or the US mainstream media? They have merited such reproachful dismissiveness that I’ll direct towards them only what I think is the laziest journalistic phrase: It remains to be seen.

Part Two will address how Trumpism related to the world’s most powerful and longest-running duopoly.

Press TV’s website can also be accessed at the following alternate addresses:

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www.presstv.co.uk

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ISRAEL WARNS OF COMING WAR WITH IRAN IF BIDEN WINS AS TRUMP CALLS

Israel Warns Of Coming War With Iran If Biden Wins As Trump Calls
Illustrative image

Israel has warned of the coming war with Iran if Joe Biden wins the US presidential election, which Donald Trump has already called extremely rigged.

“Biden has said openly for a long time that he will go back to the nuclear agreement,” Settlements Minister Tzachi Hanegbi warned said, according to Jerusalem Post. “I see that as something that will lead to a confrontation between Israel and Iran.”

The minister recalled that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and most Israelis saw the Iran Deal signed by the Obama administration in 2015 as “mistaken – and that’s an understatement.”

“If Biden stays with that policy, there will, in the end, be a violent confrontation between Israel and Iran,” he stated. According to Hanegbi, the aim of US President Donald Trump to negotiate a new deal with Iran is not the same because it would be “a different agreement that he would force through maximum pressure sanctions.”

The policy of the Trump administration allowed Israel to achieve significant gains in promoting its agenda in the Middle East. For example:

  • In December 2017, US President Trump announced that the US recognizes Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and transfers its embassy there. In May 2018, the US embassy was opened in Jerusalem.
  • In May 2018, Trump declared the withdrawal of the United States from the nuclear deal with Iran and the launch of a “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran. In the coming years, he followed this approach increasing and increasing the sanction and even military pressure on Teheran.
  • In March 2019, the US ruled by the Trump administration recognized the Syrian Golan Heights as the Israeli sovereign territory.

The potential shift of this policy under the new administration will at least partially undermine the Israeli positions in the region thus forcing Tel Aviv to take more measures to protect the recent gains. In own turn, Iran will try to exploit this to re-establish its influence in new areas. This, according to Israel, will lead to the inevitable confrontation.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump appears to be sure that the Democratic establishment (globalists and neo-liberals) is trying to steal his victory in the presidential election through an apparent vote fraud (a lot of evidence of which is available online). And it seems that the current US President is not planning to surrender.

At the same time, mainstream media outlets and social media giants have been increasingly censoring repots on the fraud and even comments saying that the situation seems at least questionable.

🚨🚨🚨 The amount of FRAUD being reported in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Georgia and Wisconsin is unreal. Please report personal experiences. Please have all facts and evidence. #StopTheSteal pic.twitter.com/leJJh2XhXd

— Eric Trump (@EricTrump) November 5, 2020

For example, Facebook publicly confirmed that it is censoring pro-Trump groups that are concerned over potential vote count irregularities.

“In line with the exceptional measures that we are taking during this period of heightened tension, we have removed the Group ‘Stop the Steal,’ which was creating real-world events,” a Facebook spokesman said.

The corporates seem to be scared by pro-Trump protests.

ZeroHedge’s report on even more strange things in the election is below:

Why Does Biden Have So Many More Votes Than Democrat Senators In Swing States?

In most elections, the majority of votes are cast “down the ticket” – meaning, a voter supports both party’s presidential nominee and state Congressional candidates. In fact, according to Pew Research, “overwhelming shares of voters who are supporting Trump and Biden say they are also supporting the same-party candidate for Senate.”

Typically, this means that that the number of votes for a presidential candidate and that party’s Senate candidates are relatively close.

Twitter user “US Rebel” (@USRebellion1776), however, found that the number of votes cast for Joe Biden far exceeds those cast for that state’s Senate candidates in swing stateswhile those cast for Trump and GOP Senators remains far closer.

Israel Warns Of Coming War With Iran If Biden Wins As Trump Calls

In Michigan, for example, there was a difference of just 7,131 votes between Trump and GOP candidate John James, yet the difference between Joe Biden and Democratic candidate Gary Peters was a staggering 69,093.

In Georgia, there was an 818 vote difference between Trump and the GOP Senator, vs. a 95,000 difference between Biden and the Democratic candidate for Senator.

Yet, in two non-swing states, there was “no massive flood of mysterious empty Biden votes,” leading US Rebel to suggest “It’s fraud.”

In Wyoming, the difference on the Democratic side is is just 725 votes, while in Montana the difference is 27,457.

MORE ON THE TOPIC:

Deep State Highjacks Election into Full-Blown ‘Color Revolution’

by TNA Video November 4, 2020

Dr. Duke Pesta interviews Alex Newman, Senior Editor of The New American, to discuss Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden’s apparently last-minute vote gains in Wisconsin and Michigan edging him closer to the White House. Newman discusses numerous irregularities in the vote tabulation and how the election has the earmarks of the “Color Revolutions” that the Deep State globalists have engineered to steel elections overseas. Dr. Pesta and Newman both warn how Fox News undermines the integrity of both the elections and our constitutional republic, by serving as the Establishment’s gatekeeper for so-called conservative news while constantly taking the wrong position when it matters most.

ما هي تغييرات السياسة الأميركيّة في حال خسارة دونالد ترامب

باريس – نضال حمادة

تظهر النتائج شبه النهائية للانتخابات الرئاسية في أميركا تقدّم المرشح الديمقراطي جو بايدن على الرئيس المنتهية ولايته دونالد ترامب، وإنْ كان بفارق ضئيل يجعل ترامب يحاول عرقلة هذه النتيجة عبر الاعتراض وتقديم الشكاوى، دون أن يكون لذلك تأثير مباشر على عملية الانتقال في الحكم التي سوف تحصل بعد شهرين من الآن في حال ثبتت النتائج الحالية بفوز بايدن.

الآن ومع اقتراب موعد ذهاب ترامب كما تشير صناديق الاقتراع، ما الذي سوف يتغيّر في السياسة الأميركية في العالم وفي الشرق الأوسط بخاصة؟

لا شك في أنّ أوّل المتغيّرات سوف يكون في السعودية على صعيد صراع أطراف آل سعود على السلطة ودعم ترامب المباشر لمحمد بن سلمان الذي مكّنه من السيطرة على مقاليد الحكم في السعودية وزجّ كلّ أطراف آل سعود الأقوياء من أبناء عمومته في السجون، ودعمه لإبن سلمان في حرب اليمن التي ربما لن تغيّر إدارة بايدن الموقف منها بقدر ما سوف تسحب الدعم الكبير داخلياً لإبن سلمان في وجه أبناء عمومته الذين يتحيّنون الفرص للثأر منه.

تركيا سوف تتأثر بسبب كره جو بايدن الشخصي لأردوغان، وهو لم يتورّع (أيّ بايدن) عن التصريح مرتين أنّ أميركا يجب أن تعمل على إسقاط أردوغان من حكم تركيا، وهذا ما سوف يزيد اعتماد أردوغان على روسيا وقد يخلق أجواء إيجابية أكثر في سورية.

روسيا سوف تفتقد ترامب الذي حفلت ولايته بتعاون بينه وبين بوتين في أكثر من مكان، منها سورية التي قرّر ترامب مغادرتها لكن ضغوط الجمهوريّين عليه وأموال العرب التي دفعت له جعلته يتراجع عن قراره هذا ثلاث مرات.

إيران التي وعد بايدن بإعادة العمل بالاتفاق النووي معها، وقد تكون غلطة ترامب القاتلة إلغاء هذا الاتفاق من دون إعطاء أيّ بديل عنه للعالم ولإيران، التي ترى أنّ بايدن بعكس ترامب لن ينسحب من سورية ولا من أفغانستان ولا من العراق، وبالتالي فإنّ أجواء التوتر مع أميركا في ظلّ حكمه سوف تستمرّ، كما أنّ كلام بايدن عن ضرورة إسقاط أردوغان لا يصبّ في مصلحة إيران التي ترى أنّ أميركا سوف تعود من باب إسقاط أردوغان إلى سياسة إسقاط الأنظمة في المنطقة.

في سياسات الحصار التي عمل عليها ترامب لا شيء يوحي أنّ بايدن سوف يوقف العمل بها أو بجزء منها من دون مقابل، هو طوال حملته الانتخابية لم ينتقد قوانين الحصار التي فرضها ترامب على إيران وسورية وغيرها من البلدان، وبالتالي لن يكون التخلي عن هذه السياسات من دون مقابل.

على صعيد دول الغرب تترقب كلّ من ألمانيا وفرنسا بفارغ الصبر ذهاب ترامب الذي عمل على تفكيك أوروبا ودعم بوريس جونسون في خروج بريطانيا من الاتحاد الأوروبي، وكانت علاقات ترامب مع ماكرون وميركل سيئة على الصعيد الشخصي بعكس علاقته الشخصيّة مع بوتين مثلاً.

الصين تنظر بارتياح لخروج ترامب من البيت الأبيض وهو الذي دخل معها في حرب تجارية من دون هوادة، واتهمها بتصنيع ونشر فيروس كورونا، وكانت علاقته بها عبارة عن حفلات من الكره وتوجيه الشتائم.

أخيراً الخاسر الأكبر على الصعيد الشخصي سوف يكون بنيامين نتنياهو صنو محمد بن سلمان الذي سوف يفقد ترامب الداعم الكبير لكلّ اليمين المتطرف الأميركي و»الإسرائيلي» رغم أنّ بايدن أعلن مرة أنه صهيوني لكن علاقته بنتنياهو كانت سيئة إبان وجوده في الحكم مع باراك أوباما ولا شيء يوحي بتحسّنها لحدّ الآن…

Democrats Reportedly Mull Replacing Pelosi as Election Fails to Trigger ‘Bloodbath for Republicans’

SPUTNIK US ELECTION 2020

07:36 GMT 05.11.2020

by Svetlana Ekimenko

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi adjusts her face mask as she announces her plans for Congress to create a Commission on Presidential Capacity to Discharge the Powers and Duties of Office Act after US President Donald Trump came down with coronavirus disease (COVID-19), during a Capitol Hill news conference in Washington, US, 9 October 2020.

Ahead of the US election, Democratic Party officials, buoyed by forecasts from pollsters, had been hoping for double-digit gains to their majority, yet early returns had provided a reality check that is being touted as the harbinger of strategic changes to come within their ranks.

Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) might be staring at a challenge in the wake of the elections in America and the Democratic Party’s perceived lackluster showing at the polls on 3 November, according to The Hill.

Two ‘moderate’ House Democrats are cited by the outlet as saying that together with other centrists they have been in talks over whether to throw their support behind someone who might unseat Pelosi as Speaker.

The two Democrats were reportedly putting out feelers among their colleagues to gauge their reaction to suggestions about backing House Democratic Caucus Chairman Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) for Speaker in the next Congress.

“He’s the only one prepared and positioned” to be Speaker, one of the Democratic lawmakers was quoted as saying.

“He bridges moderates and progressives better than anyone. And most importantly, he’s not Nancy Pelosi,” he added.

Jeffries, 50, is a member of the US House representing New York’s 8th Congressional District and had his stint in the limelight as one of seven impeachment managers for Donald Trump’s Senate trial, in an impeachment case against the President initiated by the House Democrats in 2019 in the wake of an August whistleblower complaint alleging Trump’s abuse of power.

The reportedly ambitious Jeffries has been regarded by many Democrats as poised to become the first black speaker of the House after Pelosi steps down.

Dems Mull ‘Internal Changes’

Hakeem Jeffries was cited as dismissing all speculations that he might challenge Pelosi’s seat immediately, insisting he was focused on dealing with the issues his current position entailed.

However, the report in itself is perceived as a telltale sign of the dramatic internal changes likely to follow the 3 November polls.

As America headed into the presidential elections, Nancy Pelosi, the first female Speaker in the nation’s history, was bolstered by the overwhelming support of her caucus and promising forecasts from many nationwide polls.

With no inkling of a threat to her Speakership, together with other Democrats Pelosi was anticipating big gains to their majority, writes the outlet.

However, early returns heading into Wednesday evening showed that instead of expanding their share of seats in the House of Representatives, the Democrats saw some of their most promising legislators ousted by opponents, while failing to flip a single Republican seat.

Many races, however, remain undecided.

Although control of the lower chamber will remain in Democrats’ hands, the perceived lack of success originally aimed for had allegedly left the party questioning the strategic decisions made throughout their campaign.

“Pelosi needed to hammer Trump but instead she chose to let him slide… Last night should have been a bloodbath for Republicans,” a former senior Democratic aide was quoted as saying.

With Pelosi targeted amid frustration over early election returns, one of the Democrats told the publication

“It’s time for Democrats to elevate a new generation of leadership in both the House and the Senate… Americans are clearly afraid of ‘socialism,’ want safe streets and neighbourhoods and to vote for people who they believe will help put more money in their pockets.”

He added that while Democratic policies can address these issues, their current “messaging mechanism clearly cannot”.

The Democratic lawmakers were cited as currently having conferred with two dozen members from various factions of the caucus, including the Congressional Black Caucus, Progressive Caucus, New Democrat Coalition and bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus.

The current election results have reportedly raised questions about the strategy that resulted in a seeming disconnect between recent surveys and the outcomes they failed to predict.

David Wasserman, top House analyst for the Cook Political Report, tweeted that polls had “led them astray”.

​‘Not a Race for Speaker’

Nancy Pelosi’s chief spokesman, Drew Hammill, dismissed talk of a leadership challenge to her as a distraction at a time when the race between Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden was still undecided.

“Today is not about the race for Speaker. Today is about the race for the White House and ensuring that our Members and candidates in uncalled races have the support they need. That is our focus,” he was cited as saying in an email.

In response, a spokesperson for Jeffries suggested that the Democratic caucus chairman had no intention of seeking a higher position, adding:

“As we wait for every vote to be counted in the most pivotal election in our lifetime, keeping the House Democratic Caucus unified on behalf of the American people has never been more important. Representative Jeffries is running to serve a second term as Chairman of the vibrant House Democratic Caucus in the 117th Congress.”

أميركا التي نعرفها لم تعُد موجودة…فاستعدّوا!

ناصر قنديل

بعيداً عن محاولات التأقلم التي ينشغل بها المحللون والمتابعون مع الوقائع التي حملتها الانتخابات الرئاسية الأميركية، والبحث عن أسباب لتفسير خطأ التوقعات أو ضعفها وعجزها عن ملاقاة الأرقام والمواقف، يفتح المشهد الانتخابي الأميركي الباب لبحث من نوع مختلف لا يزال الكثير من المحللين والمتابعين يرفض تصديقها، والتعاطي معها بالجدية اللازمة، وهي بحجم يطال البحث عن المستقبل الأميركي، كنظام سياسي واقتصادي، كمجتمع موحّد، كنظام ديمقراطي قادر على امتلاك آليات لمواجهة الأزمات، ومن خلال ذلك البحث بأسئلة أكثر عمقاً من عيار مستقبل النظام الفدراليّ وخطر التفكك، ومستقبل التداول السلمي للسلطة والتعايش السلمي بين المكوّنات المختلفة عرقياً أو طبقياً، وخطر الفوضى الأمنية وصولاً لفرضيات الحرب الأهلية او سقوط الانتظام العام كحد أدنى.

في مقالة قبل أسبوع بعنوان “السباق على المنخار” أوردنا توقعاتنا بالأرقام لما ستشهده الانتخابات من استعصاء، رغم الموجة التي كانت تسود التحليلات وتتحدّث عن فوز سلس ومحتم لصالح المرشح الديمقراطي جو بايدن، وما تحمله الأرقام اليوم تأكيد لما توقعناه بالتفاصيل، وفيما يتم التركيز على مأزق عنوانه شخصيّة ترامب، وتهوّره وتفلّته من الضوابط، تظهر الوقائع التي تتدفق مع الوقائع الانتخابية أن المأزق بوجهين، وجه جمهوري ووجه ديمقراطي، ليظهر مأزق المجتمع والنظام ومن خلالهما الكيان، فالنموذج الأميركي يبلغ سقف القدرة على احتواء الأزمات وتقديم الأفضل، وليس أمراً عرضياً أن لا تستطيع توحيد الجمهوريين الذين يشكلون عصب العرق الأبيض والطبقة الأغنى التي تمثل الكريما في جماعة الأعمال بتنوّع مجالاتهم، وفوق هؤلاء شخصيات ورموز اليمين الديني وفلاسفته وكتابه ومثقفيه وخطبائه، إلا شخصية رجل الأعمال الفوضويّ والنرجسيّ دونالد ترامب الآتي من خارج الحزب، حزب يرتضي قيادة لقيطة لشخصية تفتقد كل مواصفات رجل الدولة، وتشبه رجالات المافيا والعصابات، بخصال تضعها خارج السياق الطبيعيّ للممارسة السياسية التقليدية والقيمية، لكن المفارقة أن هذه الخصال الهابطة لشخصية ترامب هي مصدر جاذبيتها وقدرتها على تشكيل القاطرة اللازمة لتوحيد كل التباينات التي أصابت البنية التقليدية للجمهوريين لدرجة تقديمه كبطل وطنيّ، كما أنه ليس بالأمر العرضي أن لا يستطيع الحزب الديمقراطي أن ينهض بالمعركة الرئاسية كحزب نخبويّ للمثقفين والمحامين والكتاب والنواب، وحزب للطبقة الوسطى، وحاضنة للمهمّشين من النساء والشباب وأصحاب البشرة الملوّنة، كحزب للنهوض بمفهوم الدولة المدنية، إلا تحت شعار منع وصول ترامب للرئاسة ولبس الكمامة، وإلا وراء شخصية باهتة مشكوك بقدراتها العقلية، وفاقدة كل كاريزما وجاذبية، وتنخر حضورها الشيخوخة والهرم حدّ الخرف، فهذا الذي يجري على ضفتي الحزبين ليس عابراً ولا عرضياً، بقدر ما هو تعبير عن المأزق، وبلوغ النموذج للسقف، والعجز عن توليد الجديد، وانسداد طريق التطور من داخل النظام سلمياً، كما يفترض أنها المهمة التي تناط بالديمقراطية، التي تتباهى بها أميركا وتقدّم ذاتها كنموذج لهذه الديمقراطية القادرة على ضمان التداول السلمي للسلطة والتعايش السلمي بين المكوّنات.

في مقال قبل يومين تحدّثنا عن سيناريوات الفوضى والانقسام العمودي وتراجع الاستقرار والتماسك والنزاع القضائي المفتوح، تحت عنوان سقوط الإمبراطورية الأميركية، وكانت الإشارة واضحة للمعادلة التي تحكم المشهد الأميركي الحالي، وهي معادلة فقدان أميركا لمصادر الوفرة والقوة التي كانت تشكل الأساس لسيادة مؤسسات الديمقراطية الأميركية، ولسلاسة ممارسة الحكم، والأمر اليوم ليس في خيار الفوضى والحرب الأهلية كمعبر حتمي من المأزق الرئاسي، فقد تتخطى النخبة القياديّة في الحزبين مخاطر الانفلات والخروج عن السيطرة، ولكنها لن تنجح بإنتاج مشروع استقرار، ولن تنجح بمعالجة الانقسامات العمودية التي انطلقت من عقالها لنقص الموارد وتراجع هيبة القوة، ولا يعيدها للسيطرة الا مزيد من الموارد والمهابة. وهذا لم يعد بيد النخبة التي تتخبط منذ عام 2000 لصناعة مشروع هيمنة على الموارد العالمية وإنتاج مهابة لسياسة الاستتباع، والمشروع يصطدم بعقبات تزداد قوة وصلابة واتساعاً، والمثلث الروسي الصيني الإيراني يزداد قوة وتماسكاً وحضوراً، وبالتوازي الحلف الذي قادت عبره أميركا مشروعها يزداد تفككاً، ولم يتبق منه إلا شركاء التطبيع الخليجي الإسرائيلي، بعد المسافات والهوامش التي رسمتها أوروبا وتركيا كل من موقعه عن الانضباط الكلي بالسياسات الأميركية.

ما تشهده أميركا ليس استعصاء انتخابياً مجرداً عن عمق مأزق الكيان والهوية والمجتمع والدولة، بل هو رأس جبل الجليد لهذا المأزق، فثمة إمبراطورية هرمت وهي تترنّح وتتفكك، وسقوط الأجسام الثقيلة، يشبه سقوط التايتانيك، او دخول الفيل الى معرض للخزف. فالكثير من الحطام والصخب آتٍ في الطريق، والذين ربطوا مصيرهم بالقاطرة الأميركية، وساء برهان عودة ترامب أو مجيء بايدن عليهم أن يعيدوا حساباتهم ويستعدوا لزمن عنوانه الأكبر، أميركا مقفلة حتى إشعار آخر بداعي الانشغال بالذات والصيانة والترميم. والخروج من المأزق الرئاسي لن يعني على الإطلاق خروجاً من المأزق الأصلي للكيان والدولة والمجتمع، وأول الذين عليهم مواجهة ساعة الحقيقة هم أطراف الثلاثي الخليجي التركي الإسرائيلي.

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لماذا تفضّل روسيا وإيران فوز ترامب؟

ناصر قنديل

تلتزم موسكو وطهران على الصعيد الرسمي وشبه الرسمي الصمت تجاه المنافسة الانتخابيّة الرئاسية الأميركية، بينما يحبذ الجمهور العريض في روسيا وإيران الشماتة بهزيمة الرئيس دونالد ترامب ورؤية المرشح الديمقراطي جو بايدن رئيساً. ومع موسكو وطهران في اعتماد الصمت يشترك حلفاؤهما، فيما يشترك جمهور الحلفاء في تمنياته مع تمنيات جمهور الروس والإيرانيين. وبينما يذهب كثيرون الى اعتبار الصمت والحياد نوعاً من الدعم الروسي والإيراني للمرشح جو بايدن، لأن الإيحاء بالعداء لعودة ترامب قد يساعد ترامب في استنهاض وطنية أميركية ربما تسهم بخدمة ترامب انتخابياً كمرشح الاستقلال الاميركي، خصوصاً أن عدائيته لروسيا والصين وايران كانت ظاهرة خلال ولايته الرئاسية، بينما يكفي التزام بايدن بالسعي لإعادة العمل بالاتفاق النووي مع إيران، والتزامه العودة للاتفاقات الدولية كاتفاقية المناخ والحدّ من الأسلحة ومنظمة التجارة العالمية وتقنين العقوبات، كأسباب للاعتقاد بترجيح وجود تمنيات روسية وإيرانية بفوز بايدن.

الأكيد أن فوز بايدن لن يكون مزعجاً لموسكو وطهران أكثر مما أزعجهم ترامب في ولايته الأولى، لكن ترامب الثاني ربما يكون مفضلاً في كل من موسكو وطهران رغم الظاهر من مزاج راغب بالشماتة بهزيمته في البيئات الشعبية الروسية والإيرانية والحليفة. فالتقديرات في موسكو وطهران أن ترامب الثاني ليس ترامب الأول، والقلق الروسي والإيراني من نتائج خسارة ترامب بوقوع أميركا في الفوضى كاحتمال مرجّح لا يريح موسكو وطهران، لأنه يطلق يد المتطرفين في رسم السياسات الخارجية والخطوات العسكرية، وربما يهدّد بانفلات السيطرة في كثير من المجالات. وهذا معاكس لتمنيات شائعة بدخول اميركا في الفوضى من موقع الرغبة بالانتقام مما لحق العالم من غطرستها واستثمارها لتفوقها المالي والعسكري. والأهم بعيون موسكو وطهران فإن ترامب الثاني يصل منهكاً على الصعيدين الخارجي والداخلي، فهو لم يعُد لديه ما يفعله في لغة العداء والتصعيد وصار معنياً لضمان التفرغ للوضع الداخلي المتهالك، بإيجاد قدر من الاستقرار السياسي الدولي، والطريق واحد وهو التفاوض الهادف لصناعة تفاهمات مع مثلث موسكو وبكين وطهران.

في موسكو وطهران وحتى في بكين، قناعة بأن أي تفاهم يصنعه الديمقراطيّون سيكون محكوماً بالسعي لشراء المصداقية من الجمهوريين بإظهار عدم التفريط بالمصالح الأميركية، وهو ما قالته تجربة الاتفاق النووي مع إيران، بينما الجمهوري يذهب للتفاهم متحرراً من هذا العبء، وما يتم التفاهم عليه مع الجمهوري يتصف بالثبات. هذا إضافة الى ان الرئيس الأميركي عموماً، جمهورياً كان او ديمقراطياً، يتحرّر في ولايته الثانية من شعبوية خطابه السياسي ويستطيع أن يتحرر من عقدة ارضاء الناخبين التي تحكمه في ولايته الأولى طلباً للثانية.

يقول مرجع فاعل في السياسة الخارجية في الحلف المناهض لواشنطن، إن أميركا المتماسكة والضعيفة أفضل بكثير من أميركا المنقسمة والمتخلخلة والذاهبة للفوضى، وربما يكون هذا مرجحاً مع ترامب أكثر من بايدن، الذي ستكون لفوزه الهشّ تداعيات تأخذ أميركا نحو الفوضى الداخلية، وربما فقدان السياسة والسيطرة خارجياً وارتكاب الحماقات، ويضيف أن رئيساً أميركياً يُنظر اليه في واشنطن بأنه المتشدّد والقويّ هو الأفضل لصناعة تفاهمات ثابتة، ستفرضها موازين القوى ومحدوديّة الخيارات، بعد استنفاد الاختبارات، وهذا كله ينطبق على عودة ترامب، بينما الرئيس الضعيف والذي ينظر له بأنه متساهل ومتنازل، سيعني تشدداً في التفاوض وسعياً لاكتساب المصداقية من إظهار التشدد.

لن يغضب الروس والإيرانيون والصينيون إذا فاز بايدن وستحتفل شعوبهم شماتة بسقوط ترامب وعدوانيّته، لكنهم سيستعدون لمرارة تفاوض مملّ ومتعب ومحكوم بالإحباطات الكثيرة، بينما ربما سيفرحون بفوز ترامب ويستعدون معه لوضع تفاهمات عنونها الانسحاب الأميركي من المنطقة، بعدما غسل ترامب يديه مما يمكن أن يفعله لكيان الاحتلال. والانسحاب يستدعي تفاهمات يعرف ترامب سلفاً شروطها، وثمة من يقول في حملة بايدن، إن إعلان طهران بأنها غير مهتمة بمن يحكم البيت الأبيض هو تصويت غير مباشر لترامب، بينما التصويت ضده كان له عنوان آخر كان ينتظره الديمقراطيون، هو التأكيد على ان الأميركيين سيقررون مستقبل العالم بين الدفع نحو الحروب والاستثمار في السلام وفقاً لمن سيختارون لرئاستهم.

في موسكو وطهران وبكين ربح معنويّ أكيد بسقوط ترامب، وربح سياسي أكيد بفوزه. وهذا ربما سرّ الحياد الذي تضمّنه كلام المرشد الأعلى للجمهورية الإسلامية في إيران الإمام علي الخامنئي.

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Trump falsely claims ‘we won’ despite millions of votes still to be counted

Outcome in the balance, with decisive results from Pennsylvania and other states not expected for days

Major swing states – including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona – were too close to call early on Wednesday (Reuters)

By Umar A FarooqAli Harb

4 November 2020 08:01 UTC | Last update: 40 mins 51 secs ago

US President Donald Trump appeared to claim victory without a clear path to an electoral college majority early on Wednesday, despite millions of votes in key swing states remaining uncounted, and Democratic challenger Joe Biden currently leading in electoral votes.

With an influx of mail-in ballots slowing down the count, major swing states – including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona – were too close to call.

“We were getting ready to win this election. Frankly, we did win this election,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “This is a major fraud in our nation. We want the law to be used in a proper manner,” he said.

“We want all voting to stop. We don’t want them to find any ballots at four o’clock in the morning and add them to the list.”

In recent months leading up to the election, the president has made repeated claims – without evidence – that an increase of mail-in voting will lead to an increase in fraud. US election experts say that fraud is rare and postal ballots, which have increased at this election due to the coronavirus pandemic, are a long-standing feature of American elections.

Voting went largely smoothly on Tuesday. There were no large reports of voter obstruction as polling stations across the country worked to make sure everyone trying to vote was able to do so.

Trump had scored some major victories by the end of the night, retaining several states he had won in 2016 that Biden was looking to flip. The president held on to Florida and also crushed Democrats’ hopes of making inroads in Texas.

Biden, Trump in close race

Biden took the largely Democratic states of California and New York, along with Illinois, Virginia, and Minnesota.

Many polls just prior to the election had predicted a clear Biden victory, yet as results continue to trickle in, that remains to be seen.

In a final remark to his supporters early on Wednesday, Biden said that he was confident he would win when all votes had been counted.

“We feel good about where we are. We believe we are on track to win this election,” he told a drive-in rally in Wilmington, Delaware.

Biden’s hopes for a decisive early victory faded away after Trump took back the lead in North Carolina, Ohio, Georgia, and Texas.

The former vice president has also been looking to secure the states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that Trump had previously won in 2016. Yet vote counting there could stretch out into days.

Arizona turned out to be a surprise, with Biden currently leading in what has previously been a red state.

Trump’s accusations of voter fraud

Trump invited hundreds of supporters to the White House to view the election results on Tuesday night, serving drinks, chicken fingers and cookies.

On Twitter, the president made accusations that there was an attempt to “steal the election”. The social media company was quick to flag the post as misleading.

Abed Ayoub, legal director of the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee (ADC), said that Trump’s call for vote counting to stop is voter disenfranchisement.

“It’s massive voter disenfranchisement the likes we haven’t seen since the days of slavery and Jim Crow,” Ayoub told MEE of Trump’s speech. “Every single vote must be counted.”

Congresswoman Ilhan Omar, who was re-elected by a landslide to Minnesota’s 5th congressional district on Tuesday, wrote on Twitter: “Counting ALL ballots isn’t the same as voting. You can’t stop ballots from being counted. This isn’t a dictatorship.

“This man is dangerous.”

Senate Republicans seek to maintain majority

On the Senate side of the race, Republican incumbents mostly staved off Democratic challengers’ hopes to unseat them and give Democrats a majority in the chamber.

Republicans currently hold a majority of 53 seats in the 100-seat chamber, where senators hold six-year terms for office. 

Democrats need to win four seats in order to secure the majority, or three if Biden wins the White House (if elected, Vice President Kamala Harris would have a tie-breaking vote in the legislature).

So far, Democratic incumbent Senator Doug Jones from Alabama has lost to Republican challenger Tommy Tuberville. Democratic challenger John Hickenlooper defeated incumbent Republican Senator Cory Gardner in the state of Colorado.

In South Carolina, Senator Lindsey Graham – a close Trump ally – held off a strong challenge from Democrat Jaime Harrison, who raised upwards of $57m in the last quarter.

In Texas, veteran Republican Senator John Cornyn held off a challenge from Democrat MJ Hegar. Senate races in Arizona, Michigan, and North Carolina are still too close to call.

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Electoral College thoroughly undemocratic: American professor

By Mohammad Mazhari

November 3, 2020 – 22:25

TEHRAN – An American professor says that Electoral College, which is partly rooted in slavery, is a completely undemocratic institution.

“The electoral college, which is partly rooted in slavery, is a thoroughly undemocratic institution and makes a mockery of democracy in America,” Robert C. Smith, a professor of political science at San Francisco State University, tells the Tehran Times. 

Despite its long history of denying people the right to vote based on race and gender, today America portrays itself as the world’s leading democracy.

Americans voted on Tuesday for the presidential election. The incumbent president, Donald Trump from the Republican Party, faced Democratic rival vice president Joe Biden. 
But it seems that the elections would not run smoothly this time given the potential threat to the smooth running of the vote. 

Some Americans believe that antiquated and outdated constitutional institutions like the Electoral College can undermine the voices of ordinary people. 

In the 2016 presidential election, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton garnered more national votes; however, she lost to Trump due to Electoral College.

Professor Smith believes that such an electoral system should have been abolished before. 

“It should have long ago been abolished, but it takes an amendment to the Constitution which it makes virtually impossible to abolish, given the supermajorities required in Congress and the states,” Smith says, adding, “It may, along with the unrepresentative Senate, pose a major threat to the legitimacy of the democracy and a system crisis in America.”

“The Electoral College, which is partly rooted in slavery, makes a mockery of democracy in America.”

Asked about some factors that call into question whether America is a democracy, the San Francisco State University professor notes that the election does not call into question democracy in America, “but the issues of voter suppression, Trump’s unwillingness to say he will accept the outcome of the election if he loses, his unwillingness to assure a peaceful transfer of power, the possibility the outcome will not be known on election night, the prospect of Supreme Court intervention all make this an unusual, controversial and messy election, but the American-such as it is- is not in question.”

Describing the Supreme Court lawyers as “politicians in robes,” Smith argues that the court has a role in U.S. elections inconsistent with democratic principles, and more so than the historical normal, is highly partisan.

Some restrictions were put on voters in Texas, a move which got some experts to say that battle playing across America is, in some ways, a continuation of a centuries-long fight over access to the franchise.

Last month, Texas’s governor, Greg Abbott, a Republican, abruptly issued an order that limited each county in the state to offer one ballot drop box. 

In this regard, the American academic believes that “what happens in Texas and elsewhere in the nation is part of a long, sordid history of vote denial and suppression in the U.S., which has become increasingly blatant in recent elections.”

Overall, it seems that the Tuesday election did not proceed as was predicted, and no one knows what will happen. 

However, Smith emphasizes that “the polls are generally accurate and trustworthy; they accurately predicted the popular vote outcome in 2016.”

Underneath it all, many see a Machiavellian approach by the ruling party. It wants to preserve power by making it harder for certain groups like minorities, young people, and the poor to vote.

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JOE BIDEN WITH A SLIGHT LEAD OVER TRUMP, AS PRELIMINARY RESULTS SHOW HEAVY CONTENTION

South Front

In the early hours of November 4th, the vote for the US Presidential Election is being counted between incumbent president Donald Trump, and former Vice President Joe Biden.

As of 9:00 Central European Time, Joe Biden is in the lead with 49.8% of the vote and 236 electoral votes, compared to Trump’s 213.

Despite the preliminary results, Trump came out after his Texas and Florida wins and announced that he had achieved victory in the Presidential Election.

Joe Biden With A Slight Lead Over Trump, As Preliminary Results Show Heavy Contention

To secure victory and 4 years as president, the necessary number of electoral votes is 270.

In terms of swing states, Trump currently leads in Texas and Florida, both of which provide the most electoral votes.

Trump is also in a slight lead in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan and Georgia, but counts are not finalized yet.

Joe Biden takes away Arizona and New Hampshire.

These are no final results yet, and it is quite possible that they will not be provided on November 4th.

Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are expected to finalize their vote counting some time on November 5th.

From the preliminary results, several conclusions can be drawn.

First, there was a final burial of the residual respect for the “mathematical models” and polls of almost all American political technology and sociological companies, as well as trust in the “expert assessments” of the mainstream media.

Even if Biden wins, it will be a very tough win, just barely, as it seems.

And this does not fit with what the polls showed, especially since Biden lost miserably several states in which all mainstream polls gave him a colossal advantage, starting right with Florida, in which Trump received a record number of votes from “Latinos”, blacks and especially “Cubans”.

Polls missed all this or were originally aimed at purely manipulating the vote in order to suppress Trump voters.

In Ohio, judging by the exit polls (which actually give a very rosy picture for Democrats), 56% of workers’ union members voted for Trump, and this kind of hints at the fact that the American “deep electorate” is somehow not very enthusiastic about the LGBT-green-leftist agenda and accusations of racism. Polls also missed everything or were initially biased.

At the funeral of the industry of “polls and models” on Twitter, the button accordion was torn by Nassim Taleb personally, who three years ago publicly mocked the chief sociologist and modeler of the United States Nate Silver, and practice has once again confirmed his correctness.

The legendary “quantum” analyst of JP Morgan Marko Kolanovich joined the kicking of political charlatans, who also pointed out that all this pseudo-mathematical rubbish promoted by mainstream sociology was biased and unrealistic.

Now about bankruptcy. It is not yet completely obvious to everyone, but the most competent observers of international (and, in particular, American) political discourse – Chris Arnaid and Victor Marakhovsky – have already noted that the industry of “militant liberal irony” has suffered serious damage.

As Viktor Marakhovsky rightly noted “for a long time, the most promoted and, therefore, the most successful votes of Donald Trump were not at all the brightest and funniest ironists – but the most heart-rending, moreover, having the maximum number of “signs of voices that must be heard.” In other words, a crowd of hysterical minorities who are not very good at sarcasm simply because sarcasm is a product no, but still a critical analysis.”

Before everybody is the defeat of the “collective American Dudya”, and the victory will go to Biden (if at all) not due to total media domination and powerful propaganda, but thanks to the officials of the “deep state” who have stopped counting in key states and are now stuffing pre-prepared ballots for Biden in “voting machines” or in boxes for storing “mail ballots”.

It remains to find out whether another bankruptcy will be added to the funeral and bankruptcy – namely, the total loss of legitimacy of the American judicial system, which may and will have to determine the final winner of the electoral race.

More than 1000 people protesting US President Donald Trump descended on “Black Lives Matter Plaza” on the evening of November 3rd, just a block from the White House, while hundreds more marched through parts of downtown Washington, sometimes blocking traffic and setting off fireworks.

The demonstrations in Washington were largely peaceful, with people shouting, “Whose streets? Our streets!” and “If we don’t get no justice, they don’t get no peace!”

Groups of teenagers danced in the street as onlookers cheered. Large banners, including one reading “Trump lies all the time,” were unfurled.

The situation in the US is quite precarious, with either Presidential candidate winning having to deal with a largely divided population, with numerous issues.

It is, however, showing that the Trump administration, which evidently mishandled the COVID-19 pandemic, and several other issues, and has gathered so much American ire after months of Black Lives Matter protests, is still heavily contesting the vote.

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استطلاعات الرأي حول الرئاسة الأميركية… ما لا يُقال

 د. منذر سليمان وجعفر الجعفري

لا تزال معظم استطلاعات الرأي تشير الى تفوّق ثابت للمرشح الديمقراطي جوزيف بايدن على الرئيس ترامب في معظم الولايات، وخصوصاً الولايات المصنّفة حاسمة، وتشتدّ ضراوة الحملات الانتخابية بين المرشحين في عدد من الولايات التي استطاع ترامب انتزاعها من الديمقراطيين في الانتخابات الماضية.

ولاية فلوريدا تبدو ساحة المنافسة الأشد، إلى جانب 4 ولايات تشهد تركيزا من طرفي السباق (مشيغان، ويسكونسن، بنسلفانيا، ومينسوتا).

الانتخابات الرئاسية الأميركية تحسمها بضع ولايات من مجموع الولايات الخمسين، نظراً إلى طبيعة العوامل المؤسّسة للنظام الانتخابي، وأهمية دور مندوبي الولايات للهيئة الانتخابية المكونة من 538 عضو، يوازي كامل عدد أعضاء الكونغرس بمجلسيه. وتؤدي استطلاعات الرأي دوراً يتعاظم طرداً مع توظيف المؤسّسات الإعلامية لنتائجها، والمبارزة بينها على نشر «توجّه سياسي معين» يؤثر في الناخب ويوجهه إلى زاوية معينة.

استطلاعات الرأي، بشكلها المجرّد، تعطي تصوّراً تقريبياً لمرشّح محدّد في الحالة الأميركية الراهنة، وتؤشر على مدى حجم الدعم والتأييد، بتوظيف جملة عوامل تستقي منها حيثيات تعينها على استنتاجاتها، كحجم أموال المتبرعين، للدلالة على مدى تأييد برنامج انتخابي معين.

وتشوب هذه الاستطلاعات عيوب كثيرة، بدءاً من تباين المنهجية المعتمدة وطبيعة العينة البشرية وتوزيعها الجغرافي وفوارق مداخيلها الاقتصادية ومعتقداتها الدينية والسياسية، والأهم ربما مدى صدقية إجابات تلك العينة، والتي تثار حولها راهناً تساؤلات حقيقية حول إجابات البعض بعكس قناعاته ومشاعره الحقيقية.

للدلالة على تمايز الاستنتاجات وتباين صدقيتها، نستدلّ بدراسة حديثة أجراها «معهد كاتو» المرموق بالقول إنّ «ثلثي (2/3) الناخبين يقرّون بمناخ سياسي مسموم وبعدم الإفصاح عن جواب صريح، ويدلون بإجابة مقبولة اجتماعياً عوضاً عن ذلك». وشاطر المعهد أحد مسؤولي مؤسّسة «نورث ستار اوبينيون ريسيرتش» الجمهوري جون مكهنري رأيه، معبراً عن قلق من «نماذج جوابيّة ملتوية»، موضحاً أنها تدل على «ميل قوي لدى مؤيدي الرئيس ترامب إلى عدم المشاركة في الاستطلاع أو الإجابة عبر الهاتف».

الأجواء المشحونة بالتحيّز والعنصرية ضد الآخر انعكست على معظم مراكز استطلاعات الرأي، بإجماعها على أن «المرشح الديموقراطي جوزيف بايدن يتفوّق على خصمه الرئيس ترامب بنسبة قوية ومتماسكة».

في ولاية مشيغان، على سبيل المثال، جاءت نتيجة الاستطلاع مؤيِّدة لتفوق جوزيف بايدن بنحو 8.6% على خصمه الجمهوري، بينما أفاد استطلاع آخر أجرته مؤسسة «ترافيلغار» بتفوق الرئيس ترامب بنسبة 2%، 49% مقابل 47% لخصمه بايدن. ويتكرر المشهد في الولايات الحاسمة الأخرى بشكل خاص، ولا سيما في ولاية فلوريدا، إذ جاءت استنتاجات المؤسّسة الأولى بتفوق ترامب بنسبة ضئيلة هي 0.4%، مقابل نتائج «ترافيلغار» بتفوق الرئييس ترامب بنسبة 2.3%، أو 49% مقابل 47%.

بيانات عيّنات الناخبين تشكّل حجر الرحى في الاستطلاعات كافة ، والتي تتكوّن من مزيج من المعلومات العامة الرسمية والبيانات الخاصة لدى الشركات التجارية، لا سيما شركات بطاقات الإئتمان.

تتضمَّن البيانات الرسمية، بحسب تقرير يومية «واشنطن بوست»، معلومات تتعلّق بعنوان إقامة الناخب وبريده الالكتروني ورقم هاتفه أو هواتفه وانتسابه السياسيي، سواء كان ديموقراطياً أو جمهورياً، وبيانات جمعها ناشطو الحملات الانتخابية مباشرة، والاشتراك في الصحف والمجلات، وهي ظاهرها بريء وطبيعي، بيد أن تسخيرها لأغراض انتخابية يتم عبر جملة دوائر تحصل عليها بشكل «قانوني» كمرشح معيّن لمنصب محدّد يستخدمها في حملات دعائية للتأييد وجمع أموال التبرعات، ومن ثم يجري تصنيفها مجدداً لخدمة أهداف الحملات السياسية المتعددة، وتباع بشكل علني لمؤسسات تجارية تبني عليها وتغنيها بمعلومات إضافية، وهكذا دواليك. مثال على ذلك شركة «اكسبيريان الضخمة التي تتحكّم بتصنيف «المستهلكين بناء على قدرتهم الشرائية، ونسبة المخاطرة في قدرتهم على دفع الالتزامات المالية الشهرية»، وتضعها بتصرف المؤسَّسات المالية والتجارية والإلكترونية مقابل أجر مادي (27 تشرين الأول/اكتوبر 2020)

وبناءً على تلك الآليّة من البيانات، وتعزيزها ببيانات إضافية محدّدة تصل لنحو 1،500 عنصر، مثل «الحالة الشخصية، وحجم الديون الشخصية، ونوع السيارة او السيارات المسجلة، وعضوية الأندية، بما فيها الرياضية، والخلفية الدينية ومدى الميل للتمسك بها، وأهمية عنصر الخصوصية لدى الفرد أو مدى ثقته بشركات التقنية المتطورة وبيانات الهواتف الشخصية»، يجري عرضها بتصرف الحزبين وفي السوق لمن يدفع أكثر، وتتبادلها المؤسَّسات التجارية وتلك غير الربحية المتعددة، لتشكل «صناعة البيانات» والاتجار بها.

حملة المرشحة السابقة للرئاسة عن الحزب الديموقراطي إليزابيث ووران تُبلغ الناخبين في بياناتها بأنها «قد تتشارك البيانات الخاصة بالناخب .. مع مرشحين آخرين ومنظمات وحملات انتخابية ومجموعات ناشطة أو مع قضايا نعدّها حليفة وتتقاطع معنا في الآراء السياسية».

اللجنة المركزية للحزب الجمهوري أبلغت طاقم الصحيفة أعلاه «بالافتخار لاحتفاظها بقاعدة بيانات عريضة تشمل أكثر من 3،000 بند لكلّ ناخب»، والأمر عينه ينطبق على الحزب الديموقراطي ،وربما بقدر أقل أو أكثر، وتوضع بمجموعها تحت تصرف المرشح وحملته الانتخابية، سواء لمنصب محلي أو فيدرالي.

خطورة التصرف غير المقيّد بتلك البيانات عرضتها القناة 4 البريطانية في شهر أيلول/سبتمبر الماضي، للدلالة على ما أسمته الفضيحة التي حامت حول شركة «كامبريدج اناليتيكا » لتقصيها قواعد بيانات الناخبين من «فايسبوك» وتسخيرها لتعطيل قدرة الناخبين السود (الأفارقة الأميركيين) على الإدلاء بأصواتهم في العام 2016، خدمة لحملة المرشح الرئاسي دونالد ترامب.

عودة إلى الأرقام والنسب الشعبية المئوية للمرشحين، يتفوَّق جوزيف بايدن بنسبة 69% على منافسه الرئيس ترامب بنسبة 14% من أصوات السود الأميركيين. وبين ذوي الأصول اللاتينية، يتفوَّق بايدن بنسبة 65% مقابل 31% لترامب. وبين الأسيويين الأميركيين، يتفوَّق أيضاً بايدن بنسبة 62% مقابل 33%، وذلك بحسب استطلاع أجرته مجلة المال والأعمال «فوربس Forbes))»، 31 تشرين الأول/اكتوبر 2020.

وتشير المجلة إلى تفوق الرئيس ترامب على خصمه بين الناخبين البيض الشباب بنسبة 49% مقابل 47%.

لمتابعة نتائج الانتخابات الأولية خلال ليلة الفرز، ينبغي استقاء المعلومات الموثَّقة من جهاز كلّ ولاية على حدة، ممثّلة بالموقع الرسمي لما يطلق عليه «وزير خارجية» الولاية، ولا سيما في ظلِّ تضارب التكهّنات من قبل المؤ سَّسات المختلفة ومحطات التلفزة ليلة الانتخابات.

يتميّز ذلك الجهاز المحلي بسيطرته على كافة البيانات الانتخابية، سواء المباشرة أو بالبطاقات المسبقة وعبر البريد، والتي يجري فحصها وتسجيلها تباعا، وفق القوانين المحلية لكل ولاية على حدة، ومن ثم تعلن النتائج الرسمية. وعند هذه النقطة الفاصلة، يستطيع المرء البناء على نتائج وبيانات موثّقة، والتي قد تجد طريق حسمها النهائي أما المحاكم العليا لكل ولاية ابتداء، ومن ثم المحكمة العليا الفيدرالية.

نسوق ذلك للدلالة على محورية ولاية فلوريدا في السباق الانتخابي الرئاسي, والتي عادة ما تشكل نتائجها هوية رئيس البلاد المقبل، نظراً إلى ثقلها الانتخابيّ الثالث بعد كاليفورنيا وتكساس، وامتلاكها 29 صوتاً في الهيئة الانتخابية.

التاريخ السياسي للكيان الأميركي يؤكد أهمية كسب ولاية فلوريدا في الحسم المبكر للانتخابات الرئاسية، والتي خسرها مرشحان عن الحزب الديموقراطي، واستطاعا الفوز بمنصب الرئاسة، وهما جون كنيدي في العام 1960 وبيل كلينتون في العام 1992.

فلوريدا تحتوي على نسبة عالية من الناخبين المسنين والمتقاعدين، (26% من المجموع العام)، يمارسون دورهم ككتلة متراصة لا يستطيع أي مرشح تجاوزها. وقد فاز بها الرئيس ترامب في العام 2016 بتأييد 17% من تلك الشريحة، وهو يحظى بتأييد 59% مقابل 38% لخصمه من ناخبي الفئة العمرية 70 عاماً. وكذلك، تتضمّن شريحة قوية من الناخبين ذوي الأصول الكوبية المعادين للنظام الاشتراكي ، وهم يصوتون بغالبيتهم لصالح الحزب الجمهوري، (17% من المجموع العام).

المرشحّ الديموقراطي بايدن يعوّل أيضاً على الفوز بولاية فلوريدا وثقلها الانتخابي، لاعتقاده بأنها ستعزز حظوظه بشكل كبير، وتعفيه من عبء المراهنة على كسب ثلاث ولايات مركزية متأرجحة: بنسلفانيا ومشيغان وويسكونسن. وفي حال فشله في كسب ولاية فلوريدا، وهو احتمال قوي، يتعيَّن عليه الفوز بالولايات الثلاثة المذكورة إضافة إلى ولاية منيسوتا. في المقابل، لا يوجد طريق فعلي لفوز ترامب اذا خسر ولاية فلوريدا.

نسب تأييد بايدن في ولاية ويسكونسن مقلقة، بحسب استطلاع «ترافيلغار»، الذي يشير إلى تقدم بايدن بنسبة 47.5% مقابل 47.1%. بعض الاستطلاعات الأخرى ترجّح تقدمه على ترامب بنسبة 6.4%.

ليلة الانتخابات

في ظل «الجو الانتخابي المسموم»، تشكّل شبه إجماع عام على محورية الانتخابات الرئاسية للعام الجاري، وكذلك عدم التيقّن من إعلان الفائز في الانتخابات مع إقفال صناديق الاقتراع في أقصى الولايات المتحدة، بسبب فارق التوقيت، بعد العاشرة ليلاً بتوقيت العاصمة واشنطن، وذلك لأول مرة.

الرئيس ترامب لا يترك مناسبة دون التصريح بأن الانتخابات ستشهد تزويراً، وخصوصاً إذا لم يربح. وقد تعهّد المرشحان مسبقاً باللجوء إلى القضاء لحسم نتائج الانتخابات والطعن في بعض البيانات لأسباب تقنية بمعظمها، لكنَّ بعضها يؤشر على مهزلة حقيقية. مثلاً، أعلنت «مقاطعة بتلر» في ولاية بنسلفانيا فقدانها قوائم الانتخابات المبكرة لنحو 40،000 ناخب يوم 29 تشرين الأول/اكتوبر الجاري. ومن غير المستبعد تبادل الاتهامات لإقصاء وإتلاف بضعة آلاف أو أكثر من البطاقات الرسمية، قبل احتساب القوائم النهائية وإعلان نتائج الولايات بشكل رسمي، وهذا سيستغرق زمناً غير محدد المعالم.

التحذيرات من الاشتباكات في الشوارع خرجت عن نطاق التهديد اللفظي المجرد، وخصوصاً لمجموعات عنصرية من اليمين المتشدد مدجّجة بالأسلحة، ما استدعى من الأجهزة الأمنيّة الإعداد لخطط طوارئ، ومنها العاصمة، التي ستغلق شوارعها المحيطة بمنطقي الكونغرس والبيت الأبيض.

يومية «واشنطن بوست» أوردت «حجم القلق السائد بين الأجهزة الأمنية الفيدرالية من إمكانية اندلاع اشتباكات عنيفة، وخصوصاً اذا استمرت عملية فرز البطاقات الانتخابية لبضعة أيام دون أفق لحسم النتائج»، في ظل اقبال غير مسبوق على شراء الأسلحة الفردية بلغ 18 مليون قطعة لهذا العام، بحسب بيانات مكتب التحقيقات الفيدرالي.

أجهزة الشرطة المحلية في مدينة بورتلاند في ولاية اوريغون، في أقصى الغرب الأميركي، حذّرت من «نيّة مجموعات يمينية مسلّحة من التجمهر أمام صناديق الاقتراع يوم الثلاثاء بأسلحتهم أمام العامة». انزلاق البلاد إلى مواجهات مسلّحة بؤرية، ولو بوتيرة مضبوطة، هي أشدّ ما تخشاه المؤسَّسة الرسمية بكلّ تشعّباتها، السياسيّة والعسكريةّ والاستخباراتيّة، وستبذل اقصى الجهود لمنعها من التطّور والانتشار.

في المقابل، تتأهب الاجهزة القضائية في الولايات، وعلى المستوى الفيدرالي، للبت بالطعون والطعون المضادة قبل حسم النتائج، على خلفية وعود قطعها المرشحان الجمهوري والديموقراطي بعدم التقيد بالنتائج الأولية. عند هذا المفصل، تبرز أهمية إصرار الرئيس ترامب وقادة حزبه الجمهوري على تعيين آيمي كوني باريت للمحكمة الفيدرالية العليا، كضمانة إضافية للتصويت لصالحه.

استناداً إلى تلك المعطيات، نستطيع القول إن إعلان نتائج الانتخابات الرئاسية الرسمية سيستغرق بضعة أيام وربما أسابيع، وبعدم رضا أي من الفريقين. اما الرئيس ترامب، وبحسب جملة من العوامل والظروف وجمهور مؤيّديه، فقد أبلغ موظّفي حملته الانتخابية مسبقاً بالتأهب للعمل المتواصل طيلة شهر تشرين الثاني/نوفمبر، وامكانية استمراره في عقد مهرجاناته الخطابية، والطلب من كبار معاونيه الإعداد للسفر المتواصل لحشد قاعدته الانتخابية، وذلك بحسب نشرة «بوليتيكو» (30 تشرين الأول/اكتوبر).

يبدو أنّ الرئيس ترامب غير مستعد لقبول الهزيمة. وربما تحصل مفاجأة تشير إلى فوز وازن لأحدهما، مما يقلص من فترة الغموض والتوتر والانتظار التي ستعقب يوم الانتخاب.

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