إيران في المواجهة… تفرض قواعد اشتباك ومعادلات ردع فاعلة

يوليو 23, 2019

العميد د. أمين محمد حطيط

ظنّ الغرب بعد انهيار الاتحاد السوفياتي انّ الساحة الدولية خلت له وأنه أيّ الغرب بشكل عام وأميركا بشكل خاص لهم الحق بأن يقيّدوا العالم بأوامرهم وقوانينهم وبما يفرضونه من قواعد سلوك أو قواعد اشتباك. وتصرّف الغرب بقيادة أميركية بذهنية «الأمر لنا وعلى العالم الطاعة». وبهذا «المنطق الذي يرفضه منطق العدالة والسيادة والاستقلال الوطني»، بهذا المنطق خاضت أميركا وأحلافها القائمة او التي ركبت غبّ الطلب خاضت منذ العام 1990 أربع حروب الكويت أفغانستان – العراق لبنان وألزمت مجلس الأمن إما بتفويضها ابتداء أو بالتسليم لاحقاً بالأمر الواقع الذي أنتجته حروبها العدوانية.

اما إيران التي أطلقت في ظلّ ثورتها الإسلامية نظرية «الاستقلال الفعلي المحصّن بالقوة القادرة على حمايته« فقد تصدّت للمنطق الاستعماري الأميركي ورفضت الخضوع لمقتضياته، وجاهرت برفضها له وتمسّكها بحقها في السيادة والاستقلال الوطني، ليس هذا فقط، بل وأيضاً جاهرت بنصرة القضايا العادلة ومدّ يد العون للمظلومين ضحايا الغزو الاستعماري بوجوهه المتعدّدة والتي يشكل الاستعمار الاحتلالي التهجيري الذي تمارسه «إسرائيل» في فلسطين، الوجه الأبشع والأكثر ظلماً في ممارسات الاستعمار.

ولأنّ إيران رفضت ان تنصاع للاستعمار بأيّ صيغة من صيغ الإذعان التي أعدّها لها فقد اتخذ القرار الغربي بإسقاطها وشنّت عليها الحرب في الأشهر الأولى لنجاح ثورتها وإقامة دولتها الإسلامية… ولما فشلت الحرب في تحقيق أهدافها اعتمد الغرب الاستعماري سياسة الاحتواء والمحاصرة أسلوباً لمواجهتها.

وبالتالي فإنّ إيران الاستقلالية هذه وضعت بين شرّين: شرّ الاستتباع والهيمنة كما هي حال جوارها في دول الخليج، وشرّ التضييق والحصار للتركيع عبر ما يسمّى العقوبات، وبينهما اختارت إيران الشرّ الأدنى لأنها توقن «انّ جوع مع كرامة وسيادة أفضل من عبودية وتبعية مع وعد بالتساهل الاقتصادي». ومع هذا الاختيار حوّلت التحدي الى فرصة استغلتها من أجل تنمية اقتصادها سعياً لتحقيق الاكتفاء الذاتي الممكن.

استطاعت إيران ان تصمد طيلة الأربعين عاماً الماضية الى ان وصلت اليوم لموقع بالغ الحرج والخطورة حيث فرض عليها اختيار جديد، يخيّرها بين التنازل عن حقوقها استجابة لقرار أميركي ينتهك هذه الحقوق، او المواجهة المفتوحة مع ما يمكن ان تتطوّر فيه وصولاً الى الحرب. اختبار بدأه ترامب بالخروج من الاتفاق النووي وأكده موقف أوروبي متخاذل عن حماية هذا الاتفاق.

تدرك إيران انّ الخضوع للرئيس الأميركي ترامب في مطالبه يعني بكلّ بساطة التنكّر للثورة وتغيير طبيعة النظام الاستقلالي والعودة الى مقاعد الدول التي تفرض أميركا هيمنتها عليها، اما المواجهة فإنها مع مخاطرها تختزن آمالاً كبيرة بتحقيق النجاح وتثبيت المواقع الاستقلالية، ولهذا اختارت إيران ان تتمسك بحقوقها واستقلالها وان تعدّ لكلّ احتمال مقتضياته، وهذا القرار هو الأساس الذي تبني عليه إيران كلّ سياستها.

ويبدو انّ أميركا صُدمت بالقرار الإيراني فراحت تهوّل على إيران بالحرب وعملت على تشكيل أحلاف دولية للعدوان عليها بدءاً بـ «حلف الناتو العربي» واجتماع وارسو الذي دعت اليه للتحشيد ضدّ إيران، وصولاً الى فكرة الحلف البحري في الخليج لمحاصرة إيران، ثم شرعت بتحريك ونقل قوات عسكرية الى السعودية للإيحاء بأنّ الخيار العسكري لمواجهة إيران هو خيار جدي وقريب…

كلّ هذا لم يرعب إيران ولم يهزّ ثقتها بنفسها لا بل تعاملت مع المستجدات بموقف أذهل أميركا وحلفاءها حيث كان إسقاط إيران لطائرة التجسّس الأميركية ثم كان احتجازها لباخرة بريطانية انتهكت مقابل الشاطئ الإيراني قواعد الملاحة الدولية ثم كان اعتقال 17 جاسوس أميركي في إيران ومحاكمتهم…

قامت يران بكلّ ذلك في إطار تنفيذ استراتيجية دفاعية تثبت فيها أنها صحيح لا تسعى الى الحرب ولكنها أيضاً لا تتهيّب المواجهة إذا فرضت عليها، ولهذا أعدّت إيران نفسها للدفاع وأطلقت مع حلفائها «استراتيجية الحرب المفتوحة والمواجهة الشاملة على كلّ الجبهات» وحضرت نفسها للأكثر سوءاً. ما جعل أميركا تدرك انّ لعبتها على حافة الفشل والانهيار الأمر الذي جعلها تتراجع قليلاً وتأمر بريطانيا بفعل شيء ما ضدّ إيران فاستجابت ونفذت عملية قرصنة ضدّ باخرة نفط إيرانية كانت تعبر مضيق جبل طارق. وارتكبت بذلك عملاً غير مشروع ومخالف لأحكام القانون الدولي العام بما فيه أحكام الملاحة الدولية ويصنّف بأنه عدوان على إيران بكلّ المعايير.

تصوّرت أميركا وبريطانيا أنهما ستلويان ذراع إيران وتجبرانها على وقف تصدير نفطها، لكن الردّ الإيراني جاء معاكساً للتوقع الانكلوسكسوني، ردّ حصل على وفقاً لمبدأ «السن بالسن والعين بالعين والبادئ أظلم«، وترجم باحتجاز الباخرة البريطانية التي كاث تعبر مضيق هرمز.

انّ احتجاز إيران للباخرة البريطانية بعد أيام من إسقاط طائرة التجسّس الأميركية فوق النطاق الإقليمي الإيراني يشكل خطوة نوعيه في المواجهة من شأنها ان تفرض إيقاعها على الكثير من العلاقات الدولية التي يكون الغرب طرفاً فيها. وفيها من الدلالات فوق ما كان يتوقع او يتخيّل أحد من ساسة الغرب عامة وأميركا وبريطانيا خاصة دلالات يمكن ذكر بعضها كالتالي:

1 ـ رسم الفعل الإيراني قواعد اشتباك جديدة في العلاقة مع الخصوم والأعداء، قواعد قائمة على «الردّ المناسب في الوقت المناسب وبالطريقة المناسبة»، ينفذ تطبيقاً لقاعدة أساسية في قانون الحرب هي «قاعدة التناسب والضرورة». فإيران وفقاً لهذا المبدأ لا تعتدي ولا تبادر الى عمل ميداني إنْ لم يكن مسبوقاً بعدوان عليها، كما انّ إيران لن تسكت عن أيّ عدوان يستهدفها.

2 ـ أسقطت إيران الهيبة الأميركية والبريطانية وهذا أمر بالغ الخطورة بالنسبة لاثنتين من مجموعة المنتصرين في الحرب العالمية الثانية. وأكدت أنها لا تخشى ما هم عليه من قوّة، وبأن عليهم اعتماد الحسابات الدقيقة في مواجهتها وإلا كانت الخسارة المؤكدة.

3 ـ أكدت إيران انها عصية على الحرب النفسية وأنها واثقة من قدراتها الدفاعية الذاتية وإنها أيضاً مطمئنة لتحالفاتها الإقليمية والدولية. وأنها لا تتهيّب مواجهة عسكرية مع انها لا تسعى اليها.

4 ـ أكدت إيران احترامها للقانون الدولي وفقاً للتفسير الموضوعي الصحيح، وترفض أيّ تفسير منحرف وعدواني على حقوق الغير.

5 ـ أرست إيران معادلة ردع متبادل فاعل في مواجهة الخارج عامة وأميركا ومن يتبعها خاصة، معادلة جديدة تقوم مكان مبدأ الردع الأحادي الذي تفرضه أميركا في العالم وتمنع أحداً من الدول من مواجهتها حتى ولو كانت المواجهة دفاعاً عن النفس.

انّ مفاعيل ما تقوم به إيران يتعدّى إطار العلاقة البينية مع أميركا وبريطانيا ويتمدّد ليصبغ العلاقات الدولية كلها وليفرض نمطاً جديداً فيها قائماً على الثقة بالنفس وكسر قيود الهيبة الغربية التي بها فرض الاستعمار إرادته وبها أخضعت الدول وبها سرقت أموال الشعوب وحقوقهم، وعندما تكسر الهيبة تلك ستخلع أنياب الغرب وسيظهر مدى عجز دوله عسكرياً عن القبض على قرارات الشعوب والدول. وعندها سيفتح الطريق واسعاً أمام من يريد الحرية الحقيقية والاستقلال الفعلي الناجز والتمتع الكامل بثرواته.

وبكلمة أخرى نقول انّ إيران اليوم ترسم مشهداً دولياً استراتيجياً هاماً يتعدّى القول بمعادلة الطائرة بالطائرة والباخرة بالباخرة وهي تواجه معسكر الاستعمار بالأصالة عن نفسها والنيابة عن أحرار العالم ومظلوميه، وهنا تكمن أهمية المواجهة التي ستكشف انّ الخوف من الغرب كان قائماً على وهم وخيال أكثر منه على حقيقة وواقع، فالغرب لا يملك الجيوش التي تمكّنه من السيطرة على الكرة الأرضية لكن ضعف الآخر وعدم أخلاقية الغرب مكّنه من السيطرة، والآن تقوم إيران بكسر هذه الهيبة وتشجع الآخرين على المواجهة بعد الإعداد الصحيح لها وامتلاك الثقة بالنفس… وليعلم الجميع انّ الغرب سيحجم عن الحرب عندما يلمس انّ الآخر مستعدّ لها وقادر على خوضها… كما هي حال إيران ومحور المقاومة اليوم… وبهذا نفهم ما قاله بومبيو لبريطانيا «احموا سفنكم بأنفسكم فلسنا مستعدّين للحرب مع إيران».

أستاذ جامعي ـ باحث استراتيجي

The new Warsaw pact… but now against Iran حلف وارسو الجديد… لكن ضدّ إيران

The new Warsaw pact… but now against Iran

Written by Nasser Kandil,

The US Secretary of State wants to restore the image of a strong alliance “Warsaw Pact” which was the capital of Poland during the days of the Soviet Union by announcing an alliance that focused on Iran from the same capital, accompanied with a meeting in the middle of the next month during his tour in the region with the determination of the administration of the US President Donald Trump to prevent turning Yemen and Syria into another Lebanon according to Saudi Arabia and Israel. He tries to hide the mission which he talked about by saying that the efforts of all in the Middle East must be united against Iran, without mentioning the magical word which will be uttered at Warsaw Conference “the Saudi-Israeli alliance”.

Many countries will be invited as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE, Morocco, and some Latin American countries, but with the comparison with the Conference of Friends of Syria groups sponsored by Washington in 2012 to overthrow the Syrian country and which included all the European countries and most of the Arab countries, and Islamic countries as Indonesia, Turkey and Pakistan, where Israel was absent to ensure its success, Warsaw Pact will not be important because it will express the size of decline of the US influence not only in the region but also in the world. It is enough to notice the absence of the European allies of America and its partners in the NATO at their forefront Turkey. Therefore, the attendance will be restricted on marginal countries that cannot wage confrontations against Iran. Therefore, the conference will have one function; to crowd Washington’s Arab allies with Israel for confronting Iran and the forces of resistance.

The Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Jayad Zarif commented on the conference by publishing a photo that shows the participants in the Summit of Peacemakers-Sharm al-Sheikh 1996 for peace process in the Middle East and the fight against terrorism. It included former presidents as Bill Clinton, Boris Yeltsin, Hosni Mubarak, and Shimon Peres; it was dedicated to confront Iran and the forces of the resistance. Zarif wrote under that photo “”Reminder to host/participants of anti-Iran conference: those who attended last U.S. anti-Iran show are either dead, disgraced, or marginalized. And Iran is stronger than ever.”

Pompeo may not pay attention that it is the first time the Arab anti-resistance rulers met the leaders of the occupation entity in the same conference, and he did not pay attention that the meeting 1996 was a presidential summit that will not be available in Warsaw Conference which will be held at the level of foreign ministers. Because the weakness and the regression of America, the Arab rulers, and Israel are enough to interpret the expectations of its abject failure, especially because what is revealed by the call to the conference is contrary to every speech; the inability to progress in any path that ends the Palestinian cause which the Americans betted on the deal of century to end it through a Palestinian partnership provided by the Arabs who are loyal to America. So this led to a radical change in the balances of the region. Therefore, the conference is recognition of despair of the success of the new formulas which remained targets without realistic roadmap.

Warsaw Conference will end and will not reap better results than Sharm Al-Sheikh summit 1996 or the Friends of Syria 2012 conference, since its attendances are the least and the situation of America and the participants is even weaker than before.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

حلف وارسو الجديد… لكن ضدّ إيران 

يناير 14, 2019

ناصر قنديل

– في استعارة للمكان يريد وزير الخارجية الأميركية أن يلعب على الذاكرة باستعادة صورة حلف شديد القوة كان يحمل اسم حلف وارسو عاصمة بولندا أيام الاتحاد السوفياتي السابق، بالإعلان عن حلف يستهدف مواجهة إيران من العاصمة نفسها ليحمل الاسم نفسه، حلف وارسو، متوجاً بالدعوة للاجتماع المفترض منتصف الشهر المقبل زيارته للمنطقة التي ملأها كلاماً عن حزم وعزم إدارة الرئيس دونالد ترامب على منع تحول اليمن وسورية إلى لبنان آخر بالنسبة لكل من السعودية و«إسرائيل»، مخفياً المهمة التي تحدث عنها بالتلميح بقوله إنه يجب توحيد جهود الجميع في الشرق الأوسط بوجه إيران، دون أن يلفظ الكلمة السحرية التي ستظلل مؤتمر وارسو، وهي الحلف السعودي الإسرائيلي.

– بالنظر للدعوات التي وجهت والتي ستوجه، والتي طالت مصر والسعودية والبحرين والإمارات والمغرب، وما قد يعقبها من دعوات لبعض دول أميركا اللاتينية، والمقارنة مع مؤتمر أصدقاء سورية الذي رعته واشنطن عام 2012، لتنسيق الجهود لإسقاط الدولة السورية، والذي ضم كل الدول الأوروبية وأغلب الدول العربية، وغابت عنه إسرائيل لضمان نجاحه، ودول إسلامية وازنة كأندونيسيا وتركيا وباكستان، سيبدو مؤتمر وارسو هزيلاً، وتعبيراً عن حجم التراجع في النفوذ الأميركي ليس في المنطقة فقط، بل وفي العالم، حيث سيكون كافياً غياب حلفاء أميركا الأوروبيين، وشركائها الكبار في حلف الأطلسي وفي مقدمتهم مع الدول الأوروبية تركيا، وسيكون الحضور لدول هامشية في القدرة على خوض المواجهات المؤثرة على إيران، ويصبح للمؤتمر وظيفة واحدة، أن يكون الشكل الوحيد المتاح لحشد يضم حلفاء واشنطن من العرب مع «إسرائيل» لمهمة مشتركة عنوانها مواجهة إيران وقوى المقاومة.

– علّق وزير الخارجية الإيرانية محمد جواد ظريف على المؤتمر بنشر صورة تظهر المشاركين في القمة الدولية بشأن التسوية الشرق الأوسطية ومحاربة الإرهاب والتي عقدت في شرم الشيخ المصرية عام 1996، بمن فيهم الرؤساء السابقون للولايات المتحدة بيل كلينتون وروسيا بوريس يلتسين ومصر حسني مبارك و«إسرائيل» شيمون بيريز، والتي خصصت يومها لمواجهة إيران وقوى المقاومة، وكتب ظريف تحت تلك الصورة: «أذكّر مَن سيستضيف وسيشارك في المؤتمر ضد إيران: هؤلاء الذين حضروا العرض الأميركي الأخير الموجّه ضد إيران إما ماتوا أو وُصموا بالعار أو هُمّشوا، في وقت أصبحت فيه إيران أقوى من أي وقت مضى».

– لم ينتبه بومبيو ربما إلى أنها ليست المرة التي يجتمع فيها الحكام العرب المعادون للمقاومة في مؤتمر واحد مع قادة كيان الاحتلال، بل لم ينتبه ربما إلى أن اجتماع العام 1996 كان قمة رئاسية، لن تتاح لمؤتمر وارسو، الذي سيعقد على مستوى وزراء خارجية، وأن ما تغير من يومها إلى يومنا هذا من ضعف وتراجع في حال أميركا وحال الحكام العرب وحال «إسرائيل»، كافٍ لتفسير التوقعات كيف سيكون الفشل مضاعفاً قياساً بالفشل السابق، خصوصاً أن أهم ما تكشفه الدعوة للمؤتمر هو خلافاً لكل كلام آخر، العجز عن السير قدماً بجدية في مسار ينتهي بحل القضية الفلسطينية التي راهن الأميركيون على صفقة القرن لإنهائها بشراكة فلسطينية يؤمنها عرب أميركا، لينتج عن المشهد الجديد تغيير جذري في توازنات المنطقة، فيأتي المؤتمر عودة للصيغ التقليدية اعترافاً باليأس من نجاح الصيغ الجديدة التي بقيت أهدافاً بلا خريطة طريق واقعية لتحقيقها.

– سينتهي مؤتمر وارسو، ولن يحصد نتائج أفضل من قمة شرم الشيخ عام 1996 ولا من مؤتمر أصدقاء سورية 2012، وهو أشد هزالاً من كل منهما على مستوى الحضور، وحال أميركا والمشاركين أشد هزالاً مما كانت في الحالتين.

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Thanks to Martyr Omar, Treacherous Arabs Blatantly Exposed

March 20, 2019

Capture

Mohammad Salami

As a number of Arab regimes have been flocking to perform their political pilgrimage in Tel Aviv, bowing their heads to the Zion-American master, a Palestinian teenager screamed in the darkness to poke and remind the Umma that liberating the occupied lands and regaining the national rights is always possible and obligatory.

In Warsaw conference held last month, the representatives of a large number of Arab regimes surrounded the Zionist Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and expressed their readiness to cooperate with ‘Israel’, underscoring its “right to protect its security”.

The long speeches of the Arab politicians at the various meetings and summits failed to liberate any inch of the occupied Palestinian territories.

A 19-year-old man decided to move in reverse of the direction of the treacherous Arabs’ river on its West Bank. Omar Abu Leila wanted to let his martyrdom be the example of patriotism, nationalism and faith.

Omar resorted on Sunday to only a knife to stab and kill an Israeli soldier and seize his gun before shooting dead a rabbi as well as settler and injuring a number of others.

The martyr, described as “Rambo” by Israeli settlers, was on Tuesday night killed by the Zionist occupation forces in Ramallah where he was out.

Media reports mentioned also that the martyr had clashed with the Israeli occupation forces before he embraced martyrdom.

Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah in one of his speeches called on the Palestinians to launch just stab attacks against the Zionist soldiers and settlers in order to shake the occupation entity’s security.

Martyr Omar presented a shiny example of the Palestinian might which challenges the power imbalance with the Zionist entity and blatantly exposed the treacherous Arabs who claim that the military track in confronting the enemy is fruitless.

Source: Al-Manar English Website

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What does Europe want from Cairo Conference? ماذا تريد أوروبا من مؤتمر شرم الشيخ؟

 What does Europe want from Cairo Conference?

مارس 18, 2019

Written by Nasser Kandil,

The Arab-European summit has been arranged by Arab initiatives, but it translated a European decision that expressed the threats resulted from the chaos that threatens the Mediterranean Basin, and the resulting consequences on the European security. This is after the summit which brought together the Arabs and the Europeans a year ago in the Dead Sea, in which they suggested to fix a regular Arab-European summit. Therefore, Egypt hosted the first summit.

The Europeans observe the Arab inability of abiding by the high rhetoric and political American ceilings practically whether regarding what is related to the future of the American visions of the Palestinian cause or the future of the relationships with Iran. The American positions coinciding with the decisions of the withdrawal are being implemented slowly and have Israeli ceilings. The Arabs did not find the basis that enables them to follow especially regarding the deal of the century which will end with the Israeli occupation of Jerusalem. The Arabs failed in finding a Palestinian partner who provides the coverage to apply the American options.

The Europeans know that the adoption of Washington of its high ceilinged options towards the Palestinian cause and Iran which coincides with the decision of the withdrawal from the region spreading among Syria, Yemen, and Afghanistan will lead to a chaos in this big geographical basin, moreover, the undisputable conflicts will turn into an open environment of confrontation among the fighters and will weaken the idea of the state and stability, furthermore, it will create a high level of security comfort  in which the terrorism becomes more rooted and the immigrants will increase.

The Europeans do not dare to think of building an alliance as Washington wants despite the emergence of such an Arab-European summit which its holding has been coincided with Warsaw Conference in which the European leaderships were absent. Therefore, Cairo Summit which was without America, but with the presence of the same partners of Warsaw to discuss the same issues seemed as a response to Warsaw, while what the Europeans want is to find a framework for America’s allies who were affected by its risky behavior, to deal with it without leaving America which threatens all due to the presence in Warsaw and Cairo summits.

The summit which was not attended by the French President or the German Chancellor in order to prevent provoking the American anger is an attempt to seek stability by the American who decided to deal with its allies, their interests, and stability carelessly. It is a simple attempt to draw Arab or European policy without affecting America as the way of Charles de Gaulle and Gamal Abdul Nasser, and to announce an independent decision and policy on the basis that; such of this geographic basin in the old countries world forms a geopolitical and geo-economic unity.

The rising of the American imprudence and the impasse alone can revive this summit and turn it into a salvation way accepted by Washington in such a state of aggravation of the inability. Perhaps Europe is waiting for this moment in a way that does not provoke Washington.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

ماذا تريد أوروبا من مؤتمر شرم الشيخ؟

فبراير 25, 2019

ناصر قنديل

لا ينتظر البحث في القمة العربية الأوروبية من زاوية التفكير بمبادرات يقف الحكام العرب وراءها بحسابات التأثير في رسم المعادلات الدولية والإقليمية، والتحكم بمسارات ما يُكتب لهم من وراء البحار. فالقمة تمّت بدعوة عربية لكن ترجمة لقرار أوروبي جاء تعبيراً عن الشعور بالمخاطر التي تختزنها الفوضى التي تهدّد حوض البحر المتوسط وما ينعكس عنها من نتائج على الأمن الأوروبي، وذلك بعد قمة جمعت العرب والأوروبيين قبل عام في البحر الميت، واقترحوا خلالها تثبيت قمة دورية عربية أوروبية، وتولّت مصر استضافة القمة الأولى.

يراقب الأوروبيون العجز العربي عن السير بالسقوف الأميركية العالية كلامياً وسياسياً، والمعدومة القدرة والأدوات عملياً ومادياً، سواء ما يتصل بمستقبل الرؤى الأميركية للقضية الفلسطينية أو بمستقبل العلاقات بإيران، حيث المواقف الأميركية المتزامنة مع قرارات بالانسحاب تطبَّق على البارد، تتبنى سقوفاً إسرائيلية، لم ينجح العرب الراغبون بالسير بها في إيجاد الأرضية التي تمكنهم من مجاراتها، خصوصاً في ما يخصّ صفقة القرن التي تنتهي بتثبيت احتلال «إسرائيل» للقدس، وقد فشل العرب بإيجاد شريك فلسطيني يقدّم التغطية لتمرير الخيارات الأميركية.

يعرف الأوروبيون أن مضي واشنطن بالسير بخياراتها العالية السقوف تجاه القضية الفلسطينية وإيران، بالتزامن مع خيار مرادف يجري تثبيته هو الانسحاب من المنطقة الممتدة بين أضلاع مثلث سورية واليمن وأفغانستان، سينتج خلال سنوات درجة أعلى من الفوضى في هذا الحوض الجغرافي الكبير الذي يتوسطه العرب، وستتحوّل الصراعات غير القابلة للحسم بيئة مفتوحة على توازن سلبي بين المتقابلين في ساحات المواجهة، تضعف فكرة الدولة والاستقرار، وتنشئ قدراً عالياً من السيولة الأمنية، يتجذر فيها الإرهاب ويكثر منها النازحون.

لا يجرؤ الأوروبيون على التفكير ببناء حلف موازٍ لما تريده واشنطن، رغم ظهور القمة العربية الأوروبية بهذه الصيغة لتزامن انعقادها مع مؤتمر وارسو الفاشل الذي غابت عنه القيادات الأوروبية، فجاءت قمة شرم الشيخ بدون أميركا وبحضور شركاء وارسو ذاتهم بحضور أوروبي لمناقشة المواضيع ذاتها كأنها رد على وارسو، بينما الذي يريده الأوروبيون هو إيجاد إطار لحلفاء أميركا المتضررين من رعونتها لتنسيق كيفية التعامل مع نتاج هذه الرعونة، من دون الانعتاق من الحبل الأميركي الذي يطبق على رقاب الجميع من حضور وارسو وشرم الشيخ.

القمة التي غاب عنها الرئيس الفرنسي والمستشارة الألمانية منعاً لوقوعها في مكان يستثير الغضب الأميركي محاولة لاستجداء الاستقرار من الأميركي، الذي قرّر بوعي أنه يتعامل مع حلفاء لا يقيم لهم ولمصالحهم ولاستقرار بلدانهم أي اعتبار، محاولة خجولة لرسم سياسة عربية أوروبية، يخشى أصحابها رفع الصوت بوجه الأميركي على طريقة شارل ديغول وجمال عبد الناصر، والإعلان عن قرار مستقل وسياسة مستقلة، على قاعدة أن هذا الحوض الجغرافي لدول العالم القديم يشكل وحدة جيوسياسية وجيواقتصادية، يعرف أصحابها مصالحهم، وطالما قرّر الأميركي مغادرتها، فأهلها أقدر على إدارتها، وأعلم بمصالحها.

تصاعد الرعونة الأميركية والطريق المسدود بوجهها وحدهما قد يتكفلان ببث الروح في هذه القمة وتحوّلها خشبة خلاص ترتضيها واشنطن في لحظة تفاقم العجز، وربما تكون أوروبا تنتظر هذه اللحظة ببرود لا يستفز واشنطن قبل الأوان.

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Trump Is Barreling Toward War with Iran, Congress Must Act To Stop

By Tom Udall, Richard J. Durbin**, The Washington Post

Sixteen years after the US invasion of Iraq, we are again barreling toward another unnecessary conflict in the Middle East based on faulty and misleading logic.

The Trump administration’s Iran policy, built on the ashes of the failed Iraq strategy, is pushing us to take military action aimed at regime change in Tehran. We must not repeat the mistakes of the past, and Congress must act urgently to ensure that.

Similar to the George W. Bush administration’s justification for the war in Iraq, the Trump administration has presented the false narratives that Iran is not meeting its obligations under the nuclear deal, and that it is somehow partially responsible for the rise of Daesh [the Arabic acronym for terrorist ‘ISIS/ISIL’ group] in Syria. It’s true that the leaders of Iran are deeply problematic. But if this were enough to justify war, other regimes in the region would also be in the United States’ crosshairs, instead of being recipients of US military aid.

On the heels of the recent Middle East summit in Warsaw, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and ‘Israeli’ Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made no effort to hide their intentions. “You can’t achieve stability in the Middle East without confronting Iran,” Pompeo said. “It’s just not possible.” Netanyahu remarked that the participating nations were “sitting down together with ‘Israel’ in order to advance the common interest of war with Iran.”

The Trump administration has also been attempting to create a strong link between al-Qaeda and Iran — based on vague suggestions, but no hard evidence. There is speculation that administration officials are considering striking Iranian territory or its proxies, using the al-Qaeda narrative to claim legal authority for military action under the 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force — the same authorization used to launch the Afghanistan war, now in its 18th year.

Before we embark on another irresponsible and costly war, we have the benefit of hindsight. We must heed the lessons of history, and Congress must exercise its constitutional authority to counter the president’s reckless march toward war with Iran. Congress alone has the authority to declare war — not the president. Congress must make clear to the president that the United States will not enter another conflict in the Middle East without its approval. It is up to Congress to end the growing threat of a national security calamity, return our country to diplomacy and rebuild international trust in US foreign policy.

That’s a tall order. While Iran is no innocent actor, the Trump administration’s policies and pronouncements have only increased tensions in the region. Ever since President Trump churlishly withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, the president has engaged in saber-rattling rhetoric meant to accelerate hostility. Today, the United States stands alone in breach of the agreement, bullying friends and foes alike with threats and sanctions. The lasting damage to our global standing has left us isolated with little opportunity to lead.

Nowhere was this new reality more evident than at the Warsaw summit. The gathering accomplished little of substance but did expose mounting frustrations among the international community with the Trump administration’s unilateral policymaking approach. In a sign of Trump’s waning influence abroad, key members of the Iran nuclear deal — including France, Germany, the European Union, Russia and China — sent junior diplomats or did not participate, despite the attendance of both Pompeo and Vice President Pence.

The administration’s foreign policy apparatus is steered by two committed advocates of virtually unchecked interventionism. First, there is Pompeo, whose belligerent speech after the US withdrawal from the Iran deal was a thinly veiled attempt to set the stage for military action.

Second, there is national security adviser John Bolton, a far-right proponent of regime change who, for years, has been clamoring to go to war with Iran. Their machinations have empowered Trump’s most dangerous instincts even as he attempts to draw down US forces from Afghanistan and Syria. In 2002, President George W. Bush got congressional approval for the Iraq War, but Trump and his cadre of hawkish advisers are now inching us closer to an illegal war without constitutional authority or backing from the UN Security Council.

That’s why we plan to soon reintroduce draft legislation by a bipartisan group of senators that would restrict any funds from being spent on an unconstitutional attack against Iran. Our Prevention of Unconstitutional War with Iran Act would rebuke Iran while affirming congressional war powers and preventing the president from dragging us into another needless conflict.

Unless we demand that Congress act immediately and decisively to block the president’s path to war, we will be doomed to repeat the mistakes of our past. Once again, we would all pay the price.

**Tom Udall, a Democrat, represents New Mexico in the US Senate. Richard J. Durbin, a Democrat, represents Illinois in the US Senate.

PHILIP GIRALDI: “ATTACKING IRAN”

Written by Philip Giraldi; Originally appeared at The Unz Review

Observers of developments in the Middle East have long taken it as a given that the United States and Israel are seeking for an excuse to attack Iran. The recently terminated conference in Warsaw had that objective, which was clearly expressed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but it failed to rally European and Middle Eastern states to support the cause. On the contrary, there was strong sentiment coming from Europe in particular that normalizing relations with Iran within the context of the 2015 multi party nuclear agreement is the preferred way to go both to avoid a major war and to prevent nuclear weapons proliferation.

Philip Giraldi: "Attacking Iran"

There are foundations in Washington, all closely linked to Israel and its lobby in the U.S., that are wholly dedicated to making the case for war against Iran. They seek pretexts in various dark corners, including claims that Iran is cheating on its nuclear program, that it is developing ballistic missiles that will enable it to deliver its secret nuclear warheads onto targets in Europe and even the United States, that it is an oppressive, dictatorial government that must be subjected to regime change to liberate the Iranian people and give them democracy, and, most stridently, that is provoking and supporting wars and threats against U.S. allies all throughout the Middle East.

Dissecting the claims about Iran, one might reasonably counter that rigorous inspections by the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirm that Tehran has no nuclear weapons program, a view that is supported by the U.S. intelligence community in its recent Worldwide Threat Assessment. Beyond that, Iran’s limited missile program can be regarded as largely defensive given the constant threats from Israel and the U.S. and one might well accept that the removal of the Iranian government is a task best suited for the Iranian people, not delivered through military intervention by a foreign power that has been starving the country through economic warfare. And as for provoking wars in the Middle East, look to the United States and Israel, not Iran.

So the hawks in Washington, by which one means National Security Adviser John Bolton, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and, apparently President Donald Trump himself when the subject is Iran, have been somewhat frustrated by the lack of a clear casus belli to hang their war on. No doubt prodded by Netanyahu, they have apparently revived an old story to give them what they want, even going so far as to develop an argument that would justify an attack on Iran without a declaration of war while also lacking any imminent threat from Tehran to justify a preemptive strike.

What may be the new Iran policy was recently outlined in a Washington Times article, which unfortunately has received relatively little attention from either the media, the punditry or from the few policymakers themselves who have intermittently been mildly critical of Washington’s propensity to strike first and think about it afterwards.

The article is entitled “Exclusive: Iran-al Qaeda alliance May Provide Legal Rationale for U.S. military strikes.” The article’s main points should be taken seriously by anyone concerned over what is about to unfold in the Persian Gulf because it is not just the usual fluff emanating from the hubris-induced meanderings of some think tank, though it does include some of that. It also cites government officials by name and others who are not named but are clearly in the administration.

As an ex-CIA case officer who worked on the Iran target for a number of years, I was shocked when I read the Times’ article, primarily because it sounded like a repeat of the fabricated intelligence that was used against both Iraq and Iran in 2001 through 2003. It is based on the premise that war with Iran is desirable for the United States and, acting behind the scenes, Israel, so it is therefore necessary to come up with an excuse to start it. As the threat of terrorism is always a good tactic to convince the American public that something must be done, that is what the article tries to do and it is particularly discouraging to read as it appears to reflect opinion in the White House.

As I have been writing quite critically about the CIA and the Middle East for a number of years, I am accustomed to considerable push-back from former colleagues. But in this case, the calls and emails I received from former intelligence officers who shared my experience of the Middle East and had read the article went strongly the other way, condemning the use of both fake and contrived intelligence to start another unnecessary war.

The article states that Iran is supporting al Qaeda by providing money, weapons and sanctuary across the Middle East to enable it to undertake new terrorist attacks. It is doing so in spite of ideological differences because of a common enemy: the United States. Per the article and its sources, this connivance has now “evolved into an unacceptable global security threat” with the White House intent on “establishing a potential legal justification for military strikes against Iran or its proxies.”

One might reasonably ask why the United States cares if Iran is helping al Qaeda as both are already enemies who are lying on the Made in U.S.A. chopping block waiting for the ax to fall. The reason lies in the Authorization to Use Military Force, originally drafted post 9/11 to provide a legal fig leaf to pursue al Qaeda worldwide, but since modified to permit also going after “associated groups.” If Iran is plausibly an associated group then President Trump and his band of self-righteous maniacs egged on by Netanyahu can declare “bombs away Mr. Ayatollah.” And if Israel is involved, there will be a full benediction coming from Congress and the media. So is this administration both capable and willing to start a major war based on bullshit? You betcha!

The Times suggests how it all works as follows: “Congressional and legal sources say the law may now provide a legal rationale for striking Iranian territory or proxies should President Trump decide that Tehran poses a looming threat to the U.S. or Israel and that economic sanctions are not strong enough to neutralize the threat.” The paper does not bother to explain what might constitute a “looming threat” to the United States from puny Iran but it is enough to note that Israel, as usual, is right in the middle of everything and, exercising its option of perpetual victim-hood, it is apparently threatened in spite of its nuclear arsenal and overwhelming regional military superiority guaranteed by act of the U.S. Congress.

Curiously, though several cited administration officials wedded to the hard-line against Iran because it is alleged to be the “world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism” were willing to provide their opinions on the Iran-al Qaeda axis, the authors of the recent Worldwide Threat Assessment issued by the intelligence community apparently have never heard of it. The State Department meanwhile sees an Iranian pipeline moving al Qaeda’s men and money to targets in central and south Asia, though that assessment hardly jives with the fact that the only recent major attack attributed to al Qaeda was carried out on February 13th in southeastern Iran against the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, a bombing that killed 27 guardsmen.

The State annual threat assessment also particularly condemns Iran for funding groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, both of which are, not coincidentally, enemies of Israel who would care less about “threatening” the United States but for the fact that it is constantly meddling in the Middle East on behalf of the Jewish state.

And when in doubt, the authors of the article went to “old reliable,” the leading neocon think tank the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, which, by the way, works closely with the Israeli government and never, ever has criticized the state of democracy in Israel. One of its spokesmen was quick off the mark: ““The Trump administration is right to focus on Tehran’s full range of malign activities, and that should include a focus on Tehran’s long-standing support for al Qaeda.”

Indeed, the one expert cited in the Times story who actually is an expert and examined original documents rather than reeling off approved government and think tank talking points contradicted the Iran-al Qaeda narrative. “Nelly Lahoud, a former terrorism analyst at the U.S. Military Academy and now a New America Foundation fellow, was one of the first to review documents seized from bin Laden’s hideout in Abbottabad, Pakistan. She wrote in an analysis for the Atlantic Council this fall that the bin Laden files revealed a deep strain of skepticism and hostility toward the Iranian regime, mixed with a recognition by al Qaeda leaders of the need to avoid a complete break with Tehran. In none of the documents, which date from 2004 to just days before bin Laden’s death, ‘did I find references pointing to collaboration between al Qaeda and Iran to carry out terrorism,’ she concluded.”

So going after Iran is the name of the game even if the al Qaeda story is basically untrue. The stakes are high and whatever has to be produced, deduced or fabricated to justify a war is fair game. Iran and terrorism? Perfect. Let’s try that one out because, after all, invading Iran will be a cakewalk and the people will be in the streets cheering our tanks as they roll by. What could possibly go wrong?

Philip M. Giraldi, Ph.D., is Executive Director of the Council for the National Interest, a 501(c)3 tax deductible educational foundation that seeks a more interests-based U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. Website is www.councilforthenationalinterest.org, address is P.O. Box 2157, Purcellville VA 20134 and its email is inform@cnionline.org.

Former French diplomat to ST: ‘ME Stability’ from U.S. viewpoint includes the neutralization of Syria as long as it is not possible to destroy it

Source

The former French diplomat Prof. Michel Raimbaud has argued that it is very difficult to envisage a fighting alliance between the Gulf States with Israel and US against Iran, making clear that ‘Middle East’ stability from U.S viewpoint means the safety for Israel, the eradication of Iran and Hezbollah and the neutralization of Syria as long as it was not possible to destroy the country.

The professor’s remarks were made during an interview with the Syria Times e-newspaper about Warsaw Conference, Israeli-Gulf relations and France’s clash with U.S. over Iran nuclear deal.

Following is the full text of the interview:

ST-Why the US Administration has failed to get the world on board with Washington’s tough-on-Iran policy?

Prof. Raimbaud : Let’s note at first that this Warsaw Conference was competing with two important international meetings liable to attract the attention of observers and public opinions: the Munich Security Conference 2019, that is the annual meeting of the Western World enlarged to other Powers as China and Russia…and the tripartite Summit gathering in Sotchi around Vladimir Poutine the Presidents of Iran and Turkey about the Syrian conflict.

Anyway, the so-called spectacular performance that was shown on TV screens or delivered to the public or the World at large was remarkable indeed as it brought to the fore several discordant points:

The relative weakness of the reply to US invitation to the Warsaw Conference: about sixty States had been called, but much fewer came (it is very difficult to know exactly how many ones attended).

We must note the absence of some important countries. Iran was not invited, as being the target against which the Summit had been convened, Turkey was apparently represented by its ambassador to Poland, Russia and China having refused to participate. Iraq and Lebanon abstained, according to some reports.

It is obvious that many States were represented at a fairly low diplomatic level, for example the Ambassadors posted in Warsaw. This was the case with most of the European “partners” or guests that were underrepresented, as a mark of opposition or blame to the main purpose of the conference: to promote a holy alliance against Iran, for instance through America making pressure to bear on the European countries in order to incite them to withdraw from the Nuclear Treaty.

On the other hand, and by contrast, this discretion brought out the strong presence and overzealousness of the Gulf countries, including the envoy of Yemen. But we can take note of the low profile of countries such as Morocco, Jordan and Egypt, nevertheless anxious not to clash head-on with their US “partner”.

Israel, the great feeder of the obsession about Iran, was represented at the top level, one of the most prominent figures starring in the show being indisputably the Prime Minister Netanyahou who behaved as the Host, to the great satisfaction of the two Mikes, Pence and Pompeo.

But finally, the US administration has failed to reach the main goal of the conference: to mobilize the World around their tough-on policy. No common position against Iran, no reference to the fight or a War against the Islamic Republic and no final official statement.

ST-What does the open meeting between Israel and Gulf States reflect? Why has Israel unmasked its covert relations with Gulf States at this time??

Prof. Raimbaud: The meeting that took place in Warsaw was not a real innovation. But the fact of being an open meeting was doubtlessly something new. In fact, if there was somewhere a real success inside the whole Summit, it is to be attributed to Netanyahou, the Israeli Prime Minister. After all, two Arab States of the region have diplomatic relations with Israel, and it is common knowledge that the Gulf countries have been maintaining for some time semi-secret but well-known contacts and relations with the former “Zionist enemy”.

But it is sure that the show will strongly help Netanyahou to be re-elected in the forthcoming poll.

Having in mind the very special relationship between Washington and Israel that is the real “Beating Heart of America”, it is not far-fetched to imagine that this point was enough for Mike Pence and Mike Pompeo to consider the Summit as a big achievement: for the first time, the Israeli Head of Government was openly sitting in company of a team of Arab foreign ministers around the same table, in the same room, under the coverage of medias, and they apparently were very proud of their boldness and performance, laying it on thick, rivaling each other in kindness and thoughtfulness towards their new friend. For instance the Bahraini Minister affirmed that of course Iran was the threat number one for Arabs, and this was more important than the Palestinian cause…The Yemeni minister was also fairly effusive…

The whole operation looks like a trap for the Arabs, aiming at compromising them with Israel and making a routine out of this new relation.

ST- What can Gulf States do with Israel and US against Iran?

Prof. Raimbaud: In my opinion, it seems very difficult to envisage a fighting alliance between the Gulf States with Israel and US against Iran for various reasons related to geographical situation, religion, immigration. Let’s not forget at first that Gulf countries and Iran are very close neighbors, facing each other from both shores of the Oman Gulf and Persian Gulf.

Regardless of its conflict with the “Gulf Cooperation Council” Member-States, Qatar is duly condemned to maintain good and active relations with Iran, as far as it shares with this powerful neighbor a common huge gas-field that is the main source of its providential wealth. As to Oman, it was a tradition to nurse a wise and peaceful relationship with Iran, to make a distance with Saudi Arabia and to keep a specific go-between role in what regards the relationship of the Gulf countries and Iran. The Emirates, specially Dubai, welcomes hundreds of thousands of active Iranians… It is well known that most of the Bahraini population is Shiite as well as a strong minority in Kuwait. As a result, and even though the GCC was created in order to counter Iran, we might hardly imagine those countries waging a serious war against Iran. As far as Saudi Arabia is concerned, I strongly doubt that the Saudi Kingdom could think of starting a War against Iran, given that the Saudi leadership must surely have drawn the harsh lessons of the still ongoing conflict and the military disaster in Yemen.

The fact of fighting alongside with US and Israel wouldn’t help, the populations feeding a very lukewarm sympathy for those two countries irrespective of their kings and princes feelings.

ST-What is the meaning of Middle East stability’ from the viewpoint of U.S. and its allies?

Prof. Raimbaud: At first, we must take into account the real meaning of the words being used today in the political and diplomatic language of US and, to some extent, US proxies. As an example, if we take for granted that the expression “Friends of the Syrian People” refers exactly to the whole group of the enemies of Syria, that the so-called “Rogue States” are those resisting the American and western “Rogue Rule”, that democratization and Human Rights are a mere pretext for destabilizing the countries where the regimes are considered as unsuitable to Washington and Israel views, it is quite clear that “Middle East Stability” means to say instability and disorder.

From this view point,” stability “means the safety and quietness for Israel, the eradication of Iran presence in the region, the eradication of Hezbollah and the neutralization of Syria as long as it was not possible to destroy the country or change the “regime”. Last but not least, the Middle East stability includes the leadership of the Gulf countries and Co, and their alliance along with Israel, under the supervision of America.

The creation of Israel is commonly considered by many analysts, historians and thinkers as a destabilizing event that occurred in the Middle East in the twentieth century. Many experts and commentators agree about the fact that this State, created by the “international community” but violating endlessly and restlessly all the rules of the international law, all the Security Council resolutions, became and remains the major destabilization stronghold in the Middle East at large and beyond. In those conditions, how to consider Israel as a stabilizing pole?

At the same time, many observers and analysts do think that America has become and remains – more and more – one of the main sources of instability in the World, including of course in the Middle East. Having in mind the exhibition of some high-ranking western representatives or ministers, speaking at the Security Council, we must say that the allies of US can hardly be accounted for their sense of responsibility in what regards the stability in any part of the World.

To sum up the question, to call a meeting on “stability” in this context and with such actors, sounds like a flash of humor.

ST-Why does France reject to withdraw from Iran nuclear deal??

Prof. Raimbaud : France is not the only party rejecting the idea to withdraw from the Nuclear Treaty. In fact four (out of six) of the Iran partners in the aforesaid Treaty do refuse (China, Russia, Germany, France). In 2015, the French authorities “inspired” by Fabius (the previous Foreign Minister) had been fairly reluctant to sign for various reasons I won’t elaborate here, but they found no other way out…There are strong economic reasons linked to US former pressures and sanctions that exasperated the French government, and the deep misunderstanding prevailing between Trump’s administration and many European governments. Some people will refer to the respect of international law and treaties, but there is no doubt that European governments, usually very tolerant to the abuses of power from the US, have finally come to the conclusion that “too much is too much”.

Interviewed by: Basma Qaddour

Britain’s Role In The Aggression On Yemen: From Arming To Recruiting Fighters

Ali Al-Dorwani

Following nearly a four-decades-long hiatus from the Yemeni arena – more specifically since the British occupation left South Yemen as a result of the October 1963 Revolution – Britain has returned to play a major role in the war against the Yemeni people. This is a war that has destroyed everything and set Yemen back decades. Britain’s role was most evident at the UN Security Council.

In recent months and days, it has become evident that Britain is not only the chief author of Yemen resolutions at the Security Council, including 2216 through to 2452, but also a key partner in the aggression against the war-torn country and one of the most important pillars of the Quartet along with Saudi Arabia, the United States and the United Arab Emirates.

This British position was clearly confirmed by the UK Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt’s latest statements stressing the continuation of what he called the strategic relationship with Saudi Arabia to deal with the war in Yemen.  This in addition to the spike in British rhetoric on Yemen, which refers to the involvement of London and its interference in all Yemeni political and military affairs as well as other issues.

Looking at Hunt’s recently declared positions in addition to the statements he made after the Warsaw Conference and the Quartet meeting, it is clear that these moves are highly suspicious and raise serious questions about what the Quartet – headed by Britain – is planning for Yemen and its people, especially after trying to paint a different picture of Yemen and its people in Warsaw. That picture refers to the director of the Warsaw summit deciding to seat Yemen between the US, represented by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and the “Israeli” entity, represented by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Although these statements are in stark contrast to the atmosphere of optimism promoted by the United Nations and its envoy to Yemen, they also coincide with the insistence of the London government to continue supplying Riyadh and Abu Dhabi with deadly weapons that have killed thousands of women and children while destroying Yemeni infrastructure. British and European organizations active in the field of human rights and anti-arms trade repeatedly called for a halt to this armament, which brings shame to the UK government. Repeated calls.

Britain did not stop here. On the contrary, it even attempted to try and influence Berlin to abandon its decision to prevent licenses to supply weapons to Riyadh. The German magazine Der Spiegel revealed deep British concern regarding the impact of the German decision on the British and European defense industries. The magazine reported the concerns of Britain’s foreign secretary over British companies failing to meet several contracts with Saudi Arabia, including a new model of Eurofighter Typhoon or Tornado fighter jets, one of the most prominent aircraft used to kill civilians in Yemen.

In the same context, new information revealed the depth of the British involvement in the aggression against Yemen. The British newspaper Daily Express reported that two British soldiers from SAS battalions, one of the most dangerous forces in the world, were injured in Yemen. They were part of a team of twelve British troops deployed in a top-secret mission to the war-torn country alongside a unit of the US green berets.

These facts and revelations further unveil the nature of the quadripartite aggression on Yemen, which enters its fifth year in nearly a month. Thus, it refers to the real objectives behind it. These positions also refute all the justifications that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have given for the past four years.

On the other hand, the people of Yemen are aware of the scale of the conspiracy surrounding them. They also recognize the steadfastness of the heroes of the army and the popular committees and the righteousness of the stance towards this aggression, the motives of which and the gravity of its objectives are being uncovered day after day.

Reshaping the Middle East: Why the West Should Stop Its Interventions

Syria: the project of creating a” jungle state” instead gave birth to a powerful Resistance movement

Foreign intervention has pushed many Middle Eastern populations into poverty, at the same time making them more determined to confront and reject the global domination sought by the USA. The number of Middle Eastern countries and non-state actors opposed to the US coalition is relatively small and weak by comparison with the opposite camp, but they have nevertheless shaken the richer and strongest superpower together with its oil-rich Middle Eastern allies who were the investors and the instigators of recent wars. They have coalesced as a Resistance movement attracting global support, even in the face of unprecedented propaganda warfare in the mass media.

The soft power of the US coalition has been undermined domestically and abroad from the blatant deceit intrinsic in the project of supporting jihadist takfiri gangs to terrorize, rape and kill Christian, Sunni, secular, and other civilian populations while allegedly fighting a global war on Islamic terrorism.

The small countries targeted by the US coalition are theoretically and strategically important due to their vicinity to Israel. Notwithstanding the scarcity of their resources and their relatively small number of allies in comparison with the opposite camp, they have rejected any reconciliation on the terms offered by Israel.

Israel itself is progressively revealing more overt reconciliation and ties with oil-rich Arab countries: we see Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu strolling in Warsaw, discussing and shaking hands with Arab leaders. These are obviously not first meetings: recent years have shown a progressively warming rapport and openness between Israel and many Arab leaders.

These Middle East countries have long been supportive of Israel’s aggression against Lebanon and its inhabitants. And in the last decade, this support expanded to include a plot against the Palestinians, Syria and Iraq.

The US has exerted huge pressure on Syria since 2003, following the invasion of Iraq. During Secretary of State Colin Powell’s visit to Damascus in March 2003 he offered long-lasting governance to President Bashar al-Assad in exchange for submission: Assad was asked to sell out Hamas and Hezbollah, and thus join the road map for the “new Middle East”.

When Powell’s intimidation failed, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, the US’s main Arab allies and the countries responsible for cash pay-outs to help the US establishment achieve its goals (and those of Israel), promised to inject untold gold and wealth into Syria.

Assad was not willing to comply with this US-Saudi influence and pressure. The influence belonged to the US; Saudi Arabia and Qatar stood behind, holding the moneybags. A war against the Syrian state became essential, and its objectives and prospective benefits immense.

In a few paragraphs, this is what the seven years of war in Syria were about:

The Palestinian cause was pushed to the periphery by the mushrooming of ISIS, a group that terrorised the Middle East and participated in the destruction of the region’s infrastructure, killing thousands of its people and draining its wealth. It was also responsible for numerous attacks around the globe, extending from the Middle East into Europe. ISIS didn’t attack Israel even though it was based on its borders under the name of “Jayesh Khaled Bin al-Waleed.” Nor did al-Qaeda attack Israel, although it also bordered Israel for years, enjoying Israeli intelligence support–and even medical care!

All this was done in order to destroy Syria: dividing the state into zones of influence, with Turkey taking a big chunk (Aleppo, Afrin, Idlib); the Kurds realising their dream by taking over Arab and Assyrian lands in the northeast to create a land of Rojava linked with Iraqi Kurdistan; Israel taking the Golan Heights permanently and creating a buffer zone by grabbing more territory in Quneitra; creating a failed state where jihadist and mercenary groups would fight each other endlessly for dominance; gathering all jihadists into their favourite and most sacred destination (Bilad al-Sham – The Levant) and sealing them into “Islamic Emirates”.

It also involved, strategically, stopping the flow of weapons from Iran through Damascus to Hezbollah in Lebanon; weakening the Iranian-Syrian-Iraqi-Lebanese “Axis of Resistance” by removing Syria from it; preparing for another war against Lebanon once Syria was wiped off the map; stealing Syria’s oil and gas resources on land and in the Mediterranean; building a gas pipeline from Qatar to Europe to cripple Russia’s economy; and finally removing Russia from the Levant together with its naval base on the coast.

At no point in the Syrian war was a single leader proposed to rule the country and replace Bashar al-Assad. The plan was to establish a zone of anarchy with no ruler; Syria was expected to become the jungle of the Middle East.

It was a plan bigger than Assad and much bigger than the Syrians. Hundreds of billions of dollars were invested by Middle Eastern countries – Saudi Arabia and Qatar – to kill Syrians, destroy their country and accomplish the above objectives. It was a crime against an entire population with the watchful complicity of the modern and “democratic” world.

Many pretexts were given for the Syrian war. It was not only about regime change. It was about creating a jungle state. Think tanks, journalists, academics, ambassadors all joined the fiesta by collaborating in the slaughter of Syrians. Crocodile tears were shed over “humanitarian catastrophes” in Syria even as the poorest country in the Middle East, the Yemen, was and still is being slaughtered while the same mainstream media avert their gaze and conceal the nature of the conflict from the general public.

Anyone who understood the game, or even part of it, was called “Assadist”, a designation meant as an insult. The savage irony? This epithet “Assadist” was freely wielded by the US chattering class- who themselves have evidently never publicly counted and acknowledged the millions killed by the US political establishment over the centuries.

So, what has this global intervention brought about?

Russia has returned to the Levant after a long hibernation. Its essential role has been to stand against the US world hegemony without provoking, or even trying to provoke, a war with Washington. Moscow demonstrated its new weapons, opening markets for its military industry, and showed its military competence without falling into the many traps laid in the Levant during its active presence. It created the Astana agreement to bypass UN efforts to manipulate negotiations, and it isolated the war into several regions and compartments to deal with each part separately. Putin exhibited a shrewd military mind in dealing successfully with the “mother of all wars” in Syria. He ventured skilfully into US territory against its hegemonic goals, and he has created powerful and lasting strategic alliances with Turkey (a NATO member) and Iran.

Iran found fertile ground in Syria to consolidate the “Axis of the Resistance” when the country’s inhabitants (Christian, Sunni, Druse, secular people and other minorities) realised that the survival of their families and their country were at stake. It managed to rebuild Syria’s arsenal and succeeded in supplying Hezbollah with the most sophisticated weapons needed for a classic guerrilla-style war to stop Israel from attacking Lebanon. Assad is grateful for the loyalty of these partners who took the side of Syria even as the world was conspiring to destroy it.

Iran has adopted a new ideology: it is not an Islamic or a Christian ideology but a new one that emerged in the last seven years of war. It is the “Ideology of Resistance”, an ideology that goes beyond religion. This new ideology imposed itself even on clerical Iran and on Hezbollah who have abandonned any goal of exporting an Islamic Republic: instead they support any population ready to stand against the destructive US hegemony over the world.

For Iran, it is no longer a question of spreading Shiism or converting secular people, Sunni or Christians. The goal is for all to identify the real enemy and to stand against it. That is what the West’s intervention in the Middle East is creating. It has certainly succeeded in impoverishing the region: but it has also elicited pushback from a powerful front. This new front appears stronger and more effective than the forces unleashed by the hundreds of billions spent by the opposing coalition for the purpose of spreading destruction in order to ensure US dominance.

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Archbishop Atallah Hanna: Warsaw Conference has disregarded that no one can undermine Palestinian cause

Source

Sunday, 17 February 2019

Archbishop of Sebastia of the Greek Orthodox Patriarchate of al-Quds [Jerusalem] Atallah Hanna has affirmed that Palestinian people will continue to defend al-Quds [Jerusalem], their shrines and their just national cause no matter how tough the oppressive occupation policies are.

His Eminence’s remark was made during a tour in Salwan town [ located in the south of al-Aqsa Mosque], which is being constantly targeted by Israeli occupation authorities.

“Our mission is a message of solidarity, love, fraternity and national unity among all Palestinian people. The pains of Salwan citizens are our pains because we are one Palestinian people wherever and whenever we are, and we share the same ambitions,” the archbishop said, according to a newsletter sent to the Syria Times e-newspaper.

His Eminence asserted that the issue of detainees and prisoners must be a top priority for Palestinians because those are the heroes and symbols of freedom and they deserve to stand by them.

“We believe in values of human brotherhood and national unity through which we can be strong in defending the right we call for…Palestinians are not guests or a minority of al-Quds population…Al-Quds is their capital… We hope that internal Palestinian divisions will end so as to be strong in defending al-Quds and our shrines,” the archbishop stated, according to another newsletter sent by the archbishop Office.

His Eminence has told a German media delegation that the Palestinian cause plus the attempts of aborting it are being marginalized by media outlets.

“The world must show interest in the catastrophic circumstances the Palestinian children are going through… Gaza strip has become the largest prison in the world due to the siege being imposed by Zionist occupation,” the archbishop said.

In a separate meeting with Swiss lawyers, his Eminence called for lifting the siege being imposed by Israel on Gaza strip as Palestinian people suffer from a real humanitarian catastrophe.

“Occupation authorities have killed many youths and children during peaceful marches, and these crimes have been perpetrated because Israel, which acts brutally and without moral and human deterrent, has not been held accountable,” the archbishop clarified, indicating that over 2 million Palestinian persons are living under the siege in the strip.

Add to that, His Eminence referred to the great efforts being exerted by the World Campaign for defending Children in Palestine, warning against forced displacement being practiced by occupation authority.

“Forced displacement is dangerous and poses a threat to scores of Palestinian families and the UN report must take this matter seriously,” the archbishop asserted, calling for active European role in protecting al-Quds city’s history from Zionist occupations’ attempts to change it.

“The occupation authorities seek to turn Al-Quds city, which has its religious and spiritual status in the Abrahamic religions, into a Zionist -Jewish city encroaching on Christian and Islamic dimensions.”

As for Warsaw conference, the archbishop has declared: “ The conference comes within conspiracy hatched against the Palestinian cause and it aims to liquidate the cause, but the conferees disregard that there are Palestinian people on the ground and they have a just cause that no one can undermine.”

Treason

He went on to say:

“Like other conferences and meetings that came within the projects of liquidating the Palestinian cause, Warsaw conference is doomed to fail. Besides, the deal of the century will never pass and it exists only in their minds and on their papers that will be thrown in the dustbin of history.”

His Eminence regrets that some Arab countries have decided to be involved in the plot that aims to eliminate the Palestinian cause.

“We consider normalization meetings as treason to Palestine that is supposed to be the main Arab cause and to the Arab nation as well.”

“If those who normalize relations with Israel believe that Israel can keep them in power, they are mistaken as the top priority for Israel is its interest and the continuity of its occupation of Palestine. While those who believe that they are US friends, they will discover- sooner or later- that they have no friends because Washington just thinks of its agendas and it has thirst for gulf oil, which it steals from our region to finance its wars and policies,” the archbishop concluded.

Basma Qaddour  

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Yemenis Protest against Normalizing Ties with Zionist Enemy: Photos

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February 17, 2019

The Yemenis on Sunday protested heavily against the normalization of ties with the Zionist entity after the foreign minister of the Saudi-backed government Khaled Al-Yamani attended the Warsaw conference in presence of the Zionist premier Benjamin Netanyahu.

The protestors accused all the Arab regimes that participated in the conference of betrayal, highlighting sticking to the Palestinian cause.

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Source: Al-Manar English Website

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Hate Fest In Warsaw

By Eric Margolis

February 16, 2019 “Information Clearing House” -Warsaw, Poland is not a fun place to visit in darkest February, but that is where the US just staged an anti-Iranian jamboree of 60 client states that brought derision and scorn from Europeans and much of the Mideast.

The point of this cynical exercise was to lay the diplomatic groundwork for an anti-Iranian coalition to act as a fig-leaf for an upcoming attack on Iran planned by President Donald Trump and his close ally, Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu.

The real question is who is calling the shots in bleak Warsaw, Trump or Bibi Netanyahu? It seems to many that the Israeli tail is again wagging the American dog.

This is thanks to the power of America’s born-again evangelicals, hoodwinked into believing that a Greater Israel is somehow a key part of the Second Coming of Christ.

A Fox News poll this week finds that a quarter of these credulous folks believe that God actually summoned Donald Trump to become president. This may even be more than the number of Americans who believe that Elvis is still alive. More proof that the Republicans have pretty much become a theological party.

The three horseman of the hard right Republican Apocalypse, Vice president Mike Pence, Insecurity advisor John Bolton, and State Secretary Mike Pompeo (who reportedly keeps an open bible on his desk) joined their voices to the Warsaw jamboree to excoriate Iran for being a ‘sponsor of terrorism,’ and a danger to world peace and stability.

The never understated Bibi Netanyahu, whose nation has at least 100 nuclear weapons, claimed Iran, which has no nukes and feeble armed forces, was planning a ‘second Holocaust’ for Israel.

An over-excited Netanyahu even tweeted that the Warsaw meeting was preparing for `war with Iran.’ He was forced to retract his tweet. But he did get to sit next to the delegate from war-torn Yemen, a stooge put into place by the Saudis and Emiratis whose aggression against Yemen has so far cost hundreds of thousands of lives, mass starvation and epidemics.

This week a newly energized US House of Representatives voted for an end to their nation’s support for the Saudi-led war in the Mideast’s poorest nation. The Senate, still controlled by Republican Crusaders, will be likely to vote down the sensible House proposal.

Another participant at Warsaw was the largest Arab nation, Egypt. This nation just extended the rule of its military dictator, Field Marshall al-Sisi, to 2034. It was Sisi, backed by Saudi money, who overthrew Egypt’s first democratic government in history, killing and jailing thousands.

In a slap in the face to Washington, Europe’s leaders, France, Germany and the European Union government, either refused to attend the Warsaw hate-fest against Iran or sent low-level paper-passers.

Ironically, while Trump’s people were fulminating against Iranian ‘terrorism,’ it was Iran that was the victim of terrorist attacks. An attack from a Pakistan-based Sunni Jaish al-Adl extremist group linked to the CIA killed 27 soldiers and wounded a similar number. Iran has been the target of constant attacks since its 1979 revolution by groups linked to the US, and from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other US regional vassals.
Trump’s lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, is even a long-term lobbyist for the hyper-violent Marxist Iranian extremist group, the MEK which was even branded a ‘terrorist group’ by the US government.

The Warsaw jamboree was also supposed to set the stage for Trump’s much ballyhooed Mideast ‘peace’ plan. Run by son-in-law Jared Kushner, the full plan is expected to be released in April, right after Israeli elections. It will likely consist of trying to buy off Palestinian land claims with US taxpayer money and some cash from the Saudis. America’s Arab client states in the region will all provide polite applause.

The Warsaw jamboree produced no evident results and left the US even more isolated than before. Europe is moving ahead with a financial mechanism to permit trade with Iran that circumvents US sanctions. US intelligence itself reports that Iran is not working in nuclear weapons. Europe wants to trade with Iran.

America’s anti-Iran campaign has just suffered another blow. This after Washington badly damaged relations with China and Canada over the arrest of the daughter in Vancouver of the founder of Huawei over charges it traded with Iran. Most non-Americans view this as an outrage. But the later-day Crusaders around Trump don’t seem to care that they are damaging America’s reputation and making a mess of its foreign policy.

Eric S. Margolis is an award-winning, internationally syndicated columnist. His articles have appeared in the New York Times, the International Herald Tribune the Los Angeles Times, Times of London, the Gulf Times, the Khaleej Times, Nation – Pakistan, Hurriyet, – Turkey, Sun Times Malaysia and other news sites in Asia. ericmargolis.com

Copyright Eric S. Margolis 2019

Trump’s Warsaw ‘Peace’ Conference an Orwellian Parody

Trump’s Warsaw ‘Peace’ Conference an Orwellian Parody

Trump’s Warsaw ‘Peace’ Conference an Orwellian Parody

It was billed as a “peace and security” conference on the Middle East, held in the Polish capital Warsaw this week. The much-vaunted US-led summit was anything but about peace and security in the conflict-ridden region. It was intended as a war summit against Iran.

Even the venue, Warsaw, had an unwitting Orwellian twist to its name. Warsaw? More like War Foresaw.

For several months, the Trump administration had been organizing the “ministerial-level” two-day summit held this week. As it turned out, major powers gave the conference a clunking big miss, knowing full well that the event was a thinly veiled attempt by Washington to organize an “Iran-bashing” summit. How stupid do the Americans think the rest of the world is? They are shameless in their arrogance.

Russia, Turkey, Qatar, Lebanon as well as most European leaders decided to stay away from the venue. This was in spite of the White House sending a high-level delegation led by Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Also in attendance was Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, best buddy of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed, and spectacularly unqualified peace tribune for the Mideast.

The de facto boycott by other powers can be seen as a sign of times of Washington’s diminished role, if not its fraudulent claims of being a diplomatic arbiter.

The reason for the absence of Russia and others was because they knew the American agenda was to drum up international support for antagonizing Iran with intensified economic sanctions. Despite its claims of being a “peace and security” conference, few nations believed that it was anything other than a war summit to galvanize international support or acquiescence for Washington’s obsessive aggression towards Iran.

The fact that the US-led conference in Warsaw was avoided by so many international powers, conspicuously the European Union, shows that Washington’s days of self-proclaimed global leadership are numbered. Washington’s credibility is spent. Indeed grossly in arrears.

The farce is almost beyond words. After decades of illegal warmongering and regime-change machinations in the Middle East, how could Washington expect anyone to take its conference this week on “peace and security” to be taken seriously with a straight face?

Misplaced arrogance or delusion are the only explanations for Washington’s belief that it could organize such a conference – and expect that anyone of significance would attend.

For years, Washington has been swinging a sledgehammer in the region, destroying whole nations, from Afghanistan to Iraq, from Libya to Syria, killing millions of civilians with its criminal imperialist wars. Peace and security called for by the United States? Give us a break from the sickening delusional pretense.

President Donald Trump’s unilateral abrogation of the international nuclear accord with Iran last year is testimony to the rogue state nature of the US. Yet, Washington in its arrogance expects others to attend a conference this week on the Middle East and its pejorative depiction of Iran as a rogue state.

It should be noted that while the US tried to rally the conference in Warsaw – and so evidently failed – the leaderships of Russia, Turkey and Iran were gathered in Sochi to continue diplomatic efforts at resolving the war in Syria. Nothing could highlight more the irrelevance and moral bankruptcy of Washington. Its conference in Warsaw aimed at increasing tensions with Iran was largely ignored, meanwhile Russia and others were continuing earnest diplomatic efforts to actually bring about a peace settlement in Syria – a country ravaged by eight years of war largely sponsored covertly by Washington.

Why Warsaw, or rather War Foresaw? Poland has been obsequiously sucking up to Washington over recent years, buying INF-busting American missiles systems and even calling for a new US military base on its territory, proposed, ingratiatingly, with the name ‘Fort Trump’.

The contradictions are choking. Trump is accused by domestic political opponents of being a “Russian stooge” and yet Poland’s anti-Russian government is laying down the red carpet for American militarism under Trump to antagonize Russia.

The farcical US-led Middle East conference could not be held in any self-respecting European country because of the glaring contradiction of Trump’s hostility towards Iran cutting across the European Union’s commitment to upholding the international nuclear accord with Tehran.

Trump’s so-called “peace and security” conference this week was an Orwellian masquerade for drumming up war against Iran. Germany, France and others committed to the nuclear accord knew that they could not possibly host such an absurd event.

The true belligerence underlying the Warsaw conference was betrayed by Israeli premier Benjamin Netanyahu, who on his way to the venue, bragged that it was about forming a war front against Iran.

The Warsaw summit was thus intended as a war conference against Iran. Fortunately, the event has fizzled into irrelevance due to the absence of Russia and major European powers.

However, it nevertheless shows that Washington is intent on starting another war in the Middle East – against Iran. Its propaganda effort may have misfired this week, but the non-event at least demonstrates the warmongering intent the US harbors towards Iran.

Fortunately, too, it can be averred that Washington’s decades of criminality, duplicity and deception have finally caught up with it. Nobody in their right mind can believe anything that US rulers say – especially in regard to peace and stability for the Middle East. Washington’s every word on the subject is an Orwellian parody.

Cupid’s Zionist Arrows Missing Maduro

By Hussein Samawarchi

I wasn’t waiting to see if the Arabs participating in the most recent US charade against the free world would exchange Valentine’s love cards with the “Israelis” or not. That is something only a person who is acutely naive would doubt. I just wanted to see if they did it publicly or not. After all, the bosses of Pence and Pompeo are the same ones who need to ensure that the bloodthirsty Netanyahu continues his rampage against Palestinian children and that can only be accomplished by getting him to win elections, the results of which would be almost secured if the scandal-plagued Zionist PM proves to the settlers that he’s opening Arab airports for them.

One way or another, the “Israeli” media was going to celebrate candlelight dinners between the lords of Petroleum and the PM who, not so long ago, was shown on video speaking openly about the US public opinion being his to manipulate. They, the “Israeli” newspapers and TV stations, leak such news frequently. And, unfortunately, this is one aspect where public deception is not the case.

It is all related to Venezuela, whose legal president, Mr. Nicolas Madura, has proved that it is possible for a Latin to be more Arab than many of those who wear the traditional Dishdashah. Actually, more humanely correct and closer to the philosophy of Islam than most of them. Mr. Maduro and the brave people of Venezuela are living proof that the gap between Christianity and Islam is nonexistent when it comes to right and wrong.

The major Latin American nation has been subject to enormous pressures by the US for as long as we can remember. The Venezuelans’ natural tendency to refuse being dictated to has led them to be on the blacklist of the CIA; they are simply too proud to receive late night phone calls from some American ambassador and this is just unfathomable to the agency that orchestrated the infamous Operation Condor. They want to control Venezuela’s natural resources and its politics.

Nevertheless, it has become obvious that the objective behind the insistent campaign to destroy the very foundations of Venezuela and starve its citizens goes beyond wanting to turn it into another puppet state.

The graduates of Kissinger’s school of political terror have found that bringing a nation like this great Bolivarian one with all its top natural and human resources to its knees would serve as a lesson to the Arab leaders who were still hesitant regarding being seen in the same room with “Israel” and Cupid. If the CIA can starve the Venezuelans into overthrowing a government that says NO to imperialism, then the same could be done with the dictators of the Gulf region. It’s a very simple concept: Forget the Palestinians or we will bring someone in your place who would.

The exaggerated “Israeli” flag portrayed during the separatists’ demonstration in Venezuela was a signal to Arabs preparing to fly to Warsaw. Pompeo probably authorized the $10 payment to each person carrying it while planning the shameful seating arrangements for the summit along with the comical little microphone act that was staged.

Iran has been subject to crippling embargos for the past 40 years; high-quality medicine is not only produced there, but it is also affordable by everyone. There is no fear of falling sick in the Islamic Republic and not finding the proper medical attention for free. Even dental care which is not covered by insurance in so many so-called first world countries is available free of charge in centers around the Iranian capital. This is just one simple example of what an anti-imperialist government gives to its people.

President Maduro realizes this and so do the majority of his people. There is no doubt that Venezuela will pull through this ordeal and it will do so by primarily sticking to its high ethical standards in international affairs and then by keeping its close relationships with the countries supporting real independence and freedom of choice.

The assassin of Imam Mohammad Baqir Al Sadr was buried in disgrace. The kidnapper of Imam Mousa al-Sadr was buried in disgrace. Those trying to assassinate Palestine will be buried in disgrace. No amount of celebrating Valentine’s with Netanyahu by officials will make the Arab citizen forsake his true love, Jerusalem.

«سوتشي» و»أوسلو»: آليات الصراع على الشرق الأوسط؟

فبراير 16, 2019

د. وفيق إبراهيم

الصراع على الشرق الأوسط لم يتوقف عند الحرب العالمية الثانية، وارثاً كل القتال القديم على هذه الأرض بمصطلحات ذلك الزمان.. المشرق الشرق ـ الشرق الأدنى، مقدّمة آسيا.. الخ.. العالم العربي، سورية ـ عراق.. الخ.

مرة واحدة، استولى عليه الأميركيون بمفردهم 1990- 2010 وسرعان ما عاد الروسي إليه على هدي الصمود الإيراني ومقاومة سورية للإرهاب والنفوذ الأميركي.. كانت هذه المقدمة ضرورية للربط بين مؤتمرات سوتشي و اوسلو الأميركي الذي يجمع ستين دولة بينها اثنتا عشرة عربية بالإضافة إلى إسرائيل .

فإذا كانت سوتشي تريد تنظيم سورية لتسهيل الانطلاق نحو الإقليم، فإن أوسلو يهتم بالسيطرة على إيران للعودة إلى سورية وتقييد حركة روسيا والصين. لذلك فهما مشروعان متصادمان بالأهداف، ويؤسسان لآليات الحرب الباردة، الجديدة في منطقة تمتد من حدود أفغانستان حتى حدود مصر مع شمال أفريقيا، بما يشمل تركيا وإيران والمشرق العربي والسودان وآسيا الوسطى والقرن الأفريقي. هذا أقصى ما توصل إليه الأميركيون في التوسعة الأخيرة لحدود الشرق الأوسط التي واكبت أحاديثهم.

ماذا يريد سوتشي ؟

الدور الروسي في سورية، شرعي بطلب من دولتها، واعتبر منذ البداية أنّ التنسيق بين اللاعبين في الميدان السوري ضرورة للتسريع في الحل، وبناء على تحالفه التأسيسي مع إيران التي كانت من بين الذين طالبوا بالتدخل في سورية بنوا الأساس الجاذب لتركيا، الطرف المحوري في الأزمة فإيران جارة حدودية لتركيا ومنافستها في الإقليم، وشريكتها في الهم الكردي. ولأن للطرفين مشروعين متقابلين، فلا بدّ من التنسيق. أما روسيا فرأت في الميدان السوري طريق عودتها إلى القرار الدولي فاستعملت مع إيران مبدأ المصلحة المشتركة بالدفاع عن الدولة السورية، وجذبت تركيا بمشاريع اقتصادية خطوط غاز عبرها إلى أوروبا وبالسلاح ss400 والاستيراد والتصدير ونحو خمسة ملايين سائح سنوياً.. بالإضافة إلى الجوار في البحر الأسود، وهناك نقطة هامة، تتعلق بالرفض الأميركي لكل طموحات تركيا. ضمن هذه المعطيات تشكلت سوتشي على أساس القضاء على الإرهاب والنفوذ الأميركي ـ الخليجي على قاعدة سيادة الدولة السورية.

وبدا أنّ موسكو تريد من سوتشي أداء دور رافعة ، تعيدها إلى الثنائية الدولية مع الأميركيين، مقابل مشروع تركي يسعى من خلال سوتشي للعودة إلى العالم العربي من البوابة السورية المقفلة في وجهه، فقطر لا قوة لها على أداء هذا الدور، والخليج يخشى من طموحاتها الإسلامية ومصر ترفض إخوانيتها الإسلامية كما أنّ الأميركيين لم يولوه ثقتهم إلى حدود محاولتهم إسقاط نظام أردوغان، هذا ما جعل أنقرة تتمسك بسوتشي مع محافظتها على نافذة أطلسية تطل منها على تحالفاتها التاريخية بين الحين والآخر.

ماذا عن إيران الفريق الثالث في سوتشي؟ إيران في مرمى التصويب الأميركي ـ الخليجي ـ الإسرائيلي، منذ نجاح ثورتها الإسلامية في 1979، وهذا لم يمنعها من تأسيس تحالفات شملت افغانستان الهزارة وقسماً من باكستان والهند واليمن والعراق وسورية ولبنان، ما أدّى إلى اهتزاز النفوذ الأميركي في العالم الإسلامي، فخرجت إيران إلى الإقليم تشجّع على رفض الهيمنة الأميركية، في محاولة لتوسيع إطار الصراع معها، فتتقلّص معاناتها مما تتعرّض له من حصار ومقاطعات وتحريض داخلي وخارجي. كما أنّها وبهذه الطريقة تدعم حركة التمرد الإقليمي على الأميركيين انطلاقاً من حماية حليفتها سورية، هذا ما أدّى إلى نجاح سوتشي في إدارة الجزء الأساسي من أزمة سورية على الرغم من المراوغات التركية الواضحة.

ماذا عن وارسو ؟

يبدو أنّ مهمته الأساسية المحافظة على الدور الأميركي المتراجع في الشرق الأوسط على قاعدة استحداث آليات جديدة صادمة، لمصارعة الروس والإيرانيين والسوريين. ومنع العراق من أداء أدواره على الحدودين: السعودية كمعدّد والسورية كتحليف. لذلك جمع الأميركيون في اوسلو إسرائيل مع اثنتي عشرة دولة عربية في حلف يستهدف إيران. فكسرت بهذا المؤتمر الصراع العربي ـ الإسرائيلي، باختراع إيران الإسلامية عدواً جديداً للعرب، أو للقسم الأكبر منهم. وتحوّلت إسرائيل بفضل وارسو إلى حليف مأمون الجانب، يضع قوته العسكرية في خدمة مشروع تدمير العدو الجديد إيران.

وبذلك يصبح التطبيع مع الكيان الإسرائيلي بأوجهه العسكرية ليس كافياً.. ويلزمه تطبيع اقتصادي واجتماعي وسياسي.. وهذه أهداف إسرائيل الحقيقية. لجهة أصحاب اوسلو فهم على علم بأنّ الحرب ضد إيران تشمل تحالفات إيران في المنطقة وتزعزع مكانتهم في العراق ولن يقف الروس منها موقفاً محايداً.. هذا إلى جانب اعتراض أوروبي على استهداف غير مبرّر لإيران.

بأي حال، فإنّ الأميركيين يعتبرون اوسلو وسيلة تحشيدية لوقف تراجعاتهم ومحاصرة إيران عبر قطع علاقاتها بستين دولة هم أعضاء اوسلو ودفعها للانهيار من الداخل. وما استهداف الحرس الثوري الإيراني بسيارة مفخّخة أوقعت عشرات القتلى إلا عيّنة مما تحضره مخابرات أوسلو لهذا البلد. يتبيّن أنّ سوتشي و أوسلو آليتان من حرب باردة حامية الوطيس، إلى درجة اندلاع حروب صغيرة تعكس الصراع الأميركي ـ الروسي ـ الإيراني ـ التركي على الشرق الأوسط،.. بمشاركة إسرائيلية ـ خليجية. لذلك فإن المدى العراقي قد يكون أكثر الساحات التهاباً في هذه الحرب الباردة لما يختزنه من أهميات الربط بين محور روسي ـ سوري ـ إيراني، وبين إصرار أميركي على احتلال العراق بشكل دائم لقطع طريق محور سوتشي ، كما قال بنس نائب الرئيس الأميركي في خطابه في اوسلو.

وهذا يكشف بوضوح أن وارسو هو الردّ الأميركي للعودة إلى السيطرة على الشرق الأوسط على متن الحلف الإسرائيلي ـ العربي..

الرابح حتى الآن هو سوتشي.. بانتظار النصر النهائي بعد عودة العراق إلى أدواره العربية والإقليمية.

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Palestinian Factions Protest Arab Participation in Warsaw Conference

By Staff

With no stop, the monarchies of the Gulf run towards normalization with apartheid “Israel”. 

And based on the Arabic proverb “if not shy, do whatever you want”, the officials of the Gulf chose to change the compass of enmity so that the “Israeli” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated the new direction: It’s Iran and not “Israel”

“The Arab ministers agreed that it is the right of “Israel” to defend itself against the Iranian “aggression”,” Netanyahu declared, as he revealed that he had secretly visited four Arab countries that have no official relations with “Israel”!

Quickly, the head of the Saudi diplomacy obeyed his master: “It is impossible to achieve stability in the region without peace between the Arab countries and “Israel”. Every time we go in this field we face bad behavior from Iran,” Adel Jubeir blatantly said.

Similarly, former Saudi intelligence chief and ex-ambassador to the US has given an unprecedented interview to an “Israeli” TV channel that was broadcast just hours after Netanyahu met with the Omani foreign minister in Poland.

In an interview with “Israel’s” Channel 13 news, Saudi Prince Turki bin Faisal Al Saud said that Saudi Arabia and “Israel” have the funds and political means to work together.

“With “Israeli” money and Saudi brains, we can go far. Yes, if there is peace.”

And following the traces of the Saudis, Emirate urged the “Israelis” to bet on them.

“Every country has the right to defend itself when it faces a challenge,” Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan said: “I do not have to invite you to bet on us, but if you do, our chances are greater to change the region.”

Meanwhile, the Bahraini representative chose to express more sympathy with “friendly” “Israel”!

“Israel” released a video of a closed session at the Warsaw security summit in which Bahrain’s foreign minister says Iran is a bigger threat to Mideast security than the “Israeli”-Palestinian conflict.

In the video, Bahrain’s foreign minister, Khalid Al Khalifa, tells an audience that he grew up believing that the “Israeli”-Palestinian dispute is “the most important issue” in the region. But later, he said, “we saw a more toxic one, in fact the most toxic in our modern history, which came from the Islamic Republic, from Iran.”

Predicting a ‘bright” future from “peace” with Arabs’ killers the Omani foreign minister hailed the meeting with Netanyahu:

“Indeed, this is an important, new vision for the future,” Yusuf bin Alawi bin Abdullah, claiming that “People in the Middle East have suffered a lot, because they have [been stuck in] the past. This is a new era for the future, and for prosperity for all the nations.”

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همروجة وارسو

وليد شرارة

 الجمعة 15 شباط 2019

مؤتمر وارسو مثال جديد على مدى تحول السياسة إلى فنٍّ استعراضي. كان الهدف المركزي المعلَن للمؤتمر، عند بدء الإعداد لعقده من قِبَل الإدارة الأميركية، هو مواجهة إيران. لكن رغبة الإدارة في تأمين أوسع مشاركة ممكنة في المؤتمر، وإدراكها جدية الخلافات بينها وبين الأطراف الأوروبية الوازنة، كألمانيا وفرنسا والمفوضية الأوروبية وحتى بريطانيا، حول كيفية مقاربة الملف الإيراني، دفعاها إلى ربطه بهدف آخر وهو «الترويج لمستقبل السلام والأمن في الشرق الأوسط».

أتى عزوف تركيا وروسيا عن المشاركة فيه، وإدانة السلطة الفلسطينية له، وضعف مستوى تمثيل الأطراف الأوروبية المذكورة، ليظهر مجدداً عجز الولايات المتحدة عن فرض أجندتها على لاعبين سياسيين معنيين بأبرز القضايا التي يتطرق لها المؤتمر، على رغم أن بعضهم لا يزال حليفاً لها. من الصعب الاقتناع بأن هذه النتيجة لم تكن متوقعة من قِبَل أركان إدارة دونالد ترامب وبقية المشاركين بحماسة في همروجة وارسو. اعتبارات أخرى، سياسية وانتخابية، يغلب عليها البعد الاستعراضي، تشكل الخلفية الفعلية للمؤتمر، وتحتلّ حيزاً أساسياً في حسابات «نجومه» الأميركيين والإسرائيليين وبعض الخليجيين.

ضرورة طمأنة الحلفاء

ليس سراً أن إيران عدو مشترك لجميع أطراف وارسو. لا يفوّت أي منهم فرصة لاتهامها بأنها مصدر كل الشرور في العالم، والتنسيق بينهم ضدها بات معروفاً. لا يحتاج هذا التنسيق العملي، والمستمر منذ فترة غير قصيرة، إلى عقد مؤتمر دولي، خصوصاً بحضور جهات أخرى تطرح مقاربة مختلفة للعلاقة مع طهران، وتعارض بدرجة أو أخرى مقاربة واشنطن ووكلائها. يُعقد المؤتمر في سياق شرق أوسطي من سماته البارزة تزايد مخاوف الوكلاء المحليين للولايات المتحدة، إسرائيل والسعودية أساساً، مما يعنيه الانسحاب المعلن لقواتها من سوريا، وما يؤشر عليه من تراجع نسبي لأولوية الإقليم وشؤونه في جدول أعمالها. احتواء الصين وما يترتب عليه من سياسات وحشد للقوى بات يحتلّ موقع الأولوية الأولى بالنسبة إلى الإدارة الأميركية بدفع من رئيسها، على رغم معارضة تيار قوي في داخلها. تلي هذه الأولوية أيضاً أولوية أخرى وهي استعادة السيطرة على أميركا الوسطى واللاتينية، وهو ما كشفته سلسلة التطورات التي حدثت في البرازيل وفنزويلا، وتحويلها مجدداً إلى حديقة خلفية مغلقة أمام تمدد النفوذ الصيني والروسي.

لا يعني هذا التغير في جدول الأولويات فقدان الشرق الأوسط أهميته الاستراتيجية في نظر واشنطن، لكنه قد يعني، كما قال آموس هاريل كبير المعلّقين في قضايا الأمن والدفاع في «هآرتس»، أن هذه المنطقة ستكون أقل حضوراً على المستوى اليومي، وأن الحلفاء سيضطرون إلى التعامل مع تحديات متصاعدة بدرجة أكبر من الاعتماد على النفس، في بيئة إقليمية متغيرة لغير مصلحتهم. قدرة الولايات المتحدة على التحكم بشؤون العالم متراجعة وبسرعة، وما سمّاه عدد من أهم خبرائها الاستراتيجيين «الغرق» في الشرق الأوسط تم على حساب التصدي لتحديات أخطر وأكبر على موقعها كقوة مهيمنة، كالصعود الصيني وعودة روسيا إلى الساحة الدولية. لم تكن هذه القناعة بعيدة عن إعلان الرئيس الأميركي السابق، باراك أوباما، عن سياسة الاستدارة نحو آسيا، ولا حتى عن قراره التوصل إلى اتفاق مع إيران حول ملفها النووي، يكون بمثابة فكّ اشتباك، للتفرغ لمواجهة الصين.

التيار الصقوري في الإدارة الحالية بقيادة جون بولتون يحذر من مغبة قيام إيران، وحتى روسيا وتركيا، بملء الفراغ الناجم عن تراجع الدور الأميركي في الإقليم، ويدفع إلى اعتماد استراتيجية أكثر عدوانية ضد الأولى، تؤدي إلى احتواء نفوذها الإقليمي وإضعاف نظامها وزعزعة استقراره، قبل التفرغ لمناطق أخرى. ليس من المصادفة تكاثر العمليات الإرهابية التي تشنّها مجموعات انفصالية مدعومة أميركياً في إيران، وآخرها عملية وقعت خلال انعقاد مؤتمر وارسو. ستواصل الإدارة سياساتها المعادية لهذا البلد بوسائل وأدوات مختلفة، كالعقوبات الاقتصادية والحصار والضغوط، مراهنة على إمكانية النجاح في إضعاف نظامه، أو حتى التسبب بإسقاطه إن كان ذلك ممكناً. غير أنها مجبرة على مواجهة تحديات أخرى في الآن نفسه. يستدعي هذا الواقع طمأنة الحلفاء المحليين إلى أن أولويات واشنطن الراهنة لا تعني تخلّيها عنهم، وأنها تحرص على بناء جبهة عالمية للدفاع عنهم. ترامب يعي أن قراره الانسحاب من سوريا تسبّب بامتعاض شديد لدى حلفائه الإسرائيليين والسعوديين، الذين أوعزوا إلى جماعات الضغط المرتبطة بهم في أميركا بمهاجمة القرار، وهو لا يريد فقدان دعم اللوبي الصهيوني القوي وأنصار إسرائيل الكثر، لأن هدفه الأول هو تأمين شروط إعادة انتخابه لولاية ثانية. وظيفة مؤتمر وارسو من منظور إدارة ترامب هي التأكيد على أنها لن تتخلى عن التزاماتها تجاه الحلفاء مهما تغيرت الظروف.

التطبيع مع العرب كورقة انتخابية

تحكم الاعتبارات الانتخابية العديد من مواقف وقرارات بنيامين نتنياهو في الآونة الأخيرة. منطق واحد يربط بين إعلانه عن مسؤولية إسرائيل عن مئات الغارات على أهداف في سوريا، والذي أثار غضب أوساط عسكرية صهيونية رأت فيه خرقاً لسياسة الغموض البناء المتبعة حيال هذا الأمر، وإصراره على التطبيع العلني مع قادة ومسؤولين عرب، وهو السعي المحموم لكسب أصوات الإسرائيليين مع اقتراب الانتخابات. فالجهر بوجود علاقات تعاون وتنسيق مع بلدان عربية، على رغم عدم تسوية القضية الفلسطينية، يعزز ـــ من منظور نتنياهو ـــ من صدقية النهج الذي اعتمده طوال فترة حكمه أمام الرأي العام، ويثبت أنه نجح في تحقيق إنجازات كبرى على المستويين السياسي والاستراتيجي بالنسبة إلى إسرائيل، من دون تقديم أي تنازلات تذكر. همروجة وارسو فرصة لتلميع صورة رجل متهم وزوجته بعدة قضايا فساد، كفيلة بأن تقوده مباشرة إلى السجن في حال خسارته الانتخابات.

المذعورون

ممالك الخليج وإماراته قد تكون الأكثر ذعراً من إمكانية تراجع النفوذ الأميركي في الإقليم. هذا هو الدافع الأول لمسارعتها هي الأخرى إلى التطبيع المكشوف مع إسرائيل. العلاقة معها، بالإضافة إلى كونها إذعاناً لطلب من الحليف الأميركي بغية كسب المزيد من رضاه، جزء من عملية تعزيز لشراكات جديدة ضمن سياسة تحوّط استراتيجي لأنظمة تشعر بأن بقاءها مهدد عندما تتراجع الحماية الخارجية. دونالد ترامب كان محقاً عندما أكد مراراً وتكراراً أن النظام السعودي ما كان ليبقى لأيام لولا الحماية الأميركية. همروجة وارسو فرصة للظهور جنباً إلى جنب مع حلفاء أقوياء، يمنح الوقوف معهم شعوراً بالأمن والطمأنينة لعائلات حاكمة مرعوبة من المستقبل. فالمتغيرات العاصفة التي تشهدها المنطقة يصعب التنبؤ بتداعياتها عليهم.

من ملف : مؤتمر وارسو: نتنياهو يلمّ الخليجيين

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Warsaw Summit To Advance War with Iran and Not Peace in The Middle East’

By Darko Lazar

For the architects of the inopportunely named Warsaw summit on ‘Promoting a Future of Peace and Security in the Middle East’, timing is everything.

In a not-so-remarkable coincidence, the start of the two-day gathering this Wednesday was quickly followed by one of the deadliest terrorist attacks to rock Iran in years.

The Warsaw meeting has also coincided with another high-profile summit taking place further east. Iran, Turkey and Russia are meeting on Thursday in Sochi as part of an ongoing effort to stabilize Syria.

And although both summits are about the Middle East, they represent bitterly rival visions for the region’s future.

In Sochi, leaders are seeking to pacify some of the world’s deadliest warzones and broaden bilateral cooperation based on mutual interests.

Meanwhile, the guests in the Polish capital are looking to exacerbate regional tensions by building on foundations of common hostility towards Tehran and lining up behind a terrorism-fuelled anti-Iran agenda.

Some of these attendees include “Israel’s” Benyamin Netanyahu, US President Donald Trump’s senior adviser and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, as well as high-ranking officials from Arab monarchies in the Gulf.

The Warsaw summit is the chosen venue for bringing them all together in what Netanyahu described as advancing the “common interest of war with Iran”.

So much for promoting ‘peace and security’ in the Middle East.

Although Netanyahu later backtracked on the comments, the summit will undoubtedly attempt to advance the rapprochement between Tel Aviv and Riyadh and possibly lay the groundwork for the official unveiling of the Trump administration’s so-called “deal of the century”.

Kushner will travel to the Gulf just days after the summit wraps up, where he is due to present the ‘economic portion’ of the deal, which presumably includes financial incentives for Palestinian factions.

Interestingly, the conference in Warsaw began less than 24 hours after Moscow hosted reconciliation talks between Palestine’s Hamas and Fatah factions.

As the talks ended, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov lashed out at Trump’s “deal of the century”, warning that it “would destroy everything that has been done so far.”

Experts are convinced that the deal is ultimately designed to put the final nail in the coffin of the Palestinian struggle for an independent state – a key pillar of the Islamic Revolution – and, of course, diminish the role of the Iran-led resistance axis in Palestine.

That said, there is no shortage of challenges facing such an ambitious agenda.

For starters, the Palestinians are refusing to play ball and have ruled out any negotiations with the “biased” Trump team.

Meanwhile, the Warsaw summit is as much about those in attendance as it is about those who are staying away.

Aside from the Palestinians, the non-attendees include Qatar, Turkey, Lebanon, Russia and of course the Iranians themselves.

And then there is the European Union, which remains strongly supportive of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. Since the Trump administration withdrew from the landmark agreement last May, the Europeans have repeatedly resisted Washington’s push for a confrontation with Iran.

Last month, the EU set up a financial mechanism designed to avoid US sanctions against Tehran and keep the nuclear deal afloat.

Perhaps not surprisingly, the EU foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, boycotted the Warsaw event while France and Germany are dispatching junior officials.

The sheer fact that Poland – a country with no history of involvement in Mideast affairs – was chosen as the setting of the summit underscores Europe’s disproval of the agenda and the refusal of all major European capitals to host the conference.

Even the Poles have tried offering assurances to Tehran that nothing too inflammatory would emerge from the gathering.

As such, the Warsaw summit does much more to highlight differences over Iran within the Western camp than it does to isolate the Islamic Republic.

Perhaps, it was Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif who offered one of the more accurate descriptions of the two-day event, calling it “dead on arrival”.

According to Zarif, many of 60 countries attending the summit informed Tehran that they were pressured into making an appearance.

“They [the Americans] used the leverage they have with various countries in order to attract more people to this conference,” Zarif explained.

Whatever the numbers, the Warsaw summit was certainly never going to do much for Mideast peace or lead to a more concerted Western effort to ‘counter’ Tehran.

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Netanyahu: Warsaw Talks with Arab States ‘Turning Point’

 February 14, 2019

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed Thursday as ‘historic’ an anti-Iran meeting in Warsaw where he is joining Arab states, saying they stood ‘united’ against Iran and voicing hope that cooperation extends to other areas.

The opening dinner Wednesday night of the two-day, US-organized conference marked “a historical turning point,” Netanyahu told reporters.

“In a room of some 60 foreign ministers representation dozens of governments, an Israeli prime minister and the foreign ministers of the leading Arab countries stood together and spoke with unusual force, clarity and unity against the common threat of the Iranian regime,” he said.

“I think this marks a change and important understanding of what threatens our future, what we need to do to secure it, and the possibility that cooperation will extend beyond security in every realm of life.”

At the opening dinner at Warsaw’s Royal Castle, officials said that Netanyahu spoke around the same table as senior officials of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.

Netanyahu also met one-on-one in Warsaw with Foreign Minister Yusuf bin Alawi bin Abdullah of Oman, where he travelled late last year.

US Vice President Mike Pence and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are both attending the conference co-hosted with Poland.

But most European powers are sending low-level representation, wary of the hawkish line on Iran by President Donald Trump who withdrew from an international accord on Tehran’s nuclear program.

Source: AFP

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