The Black Sea: A new arena for a global clash?

AUG 4, 2023

Photo Credit: The Cradle

Amid rising tensions in the Black Sea, Ukraine’s desire for NATO membership, diminished US global influence, and Russia facing a potential quagmire, Turkiye must assert a balanced foreign policy to avoid a global military confrontation in the strategic waterway.

Turker Erturk

On 11 July 2023, NATO issued the 90-point Vilnius Summit Communiqué, at a summit widely seen as “a historic moment for the future of European security, and Ukraine’s in particular.” The take-away: Russia’s war in Ukraine will continue. 

This reaffirmed NATO’s unwavering support for Kiev, as previously pledged at the 2008 Bucharest Summit, and emphasize that “We fully support Ukraine’s right to choose its own security arrangements. Ukraine’s future is in NATO.”

The NATO Summit culminated with leaders from 31 countries making a significant announcement: Ukraine had been offered an invitation to join NATO. The catch, however, was that Ukraine was not yet deemed ready for membership; “We will be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the Alliance when Allies agree, and conditions are met,” it read. This has left the international community wondering about the timeline and specifics of Ukraine’s eventual participation in the Altanticist alliance.

US avoiding a global hot war 

But beneath the surface, strategic machinations seem to be at play. Ukraine finds itself in a complex position: While NATO appears to be stalling Kiev’s membership, it simultaneously urges Ukraine to pursue its aspirations. The reason becomes apparent upon closer inspection: Ukraine’s entry into NATO could potentially ignite a larger conflict, the NATO-Russia War, which could spiral into World War III, and the ominous specter of nuclear weapons looms large.

Europe, particularly key players like Germany and France, hesitate to give the green light for Ukraine’s NATO accession. The US, too, has its reservations at this stage, as it seeks to avoid a global hot war. Instead, Washington aims to recalibrate its global stance, moving away from a previous globalization effort that failed to benefit its interests and inadvertently bolstered China. 

The US appears to be opting for a long-term strategy, engaging in a war of attrition with Russia, thereby escalating a Second Cold War that was set in motion during the Donald Trump era, although his was more focused on Beijing. 

In this intricate geopolitical dance, it appears unlikely that Ukraine will join NATO anytime soon. Equally, Russia may not meet the stringent requirements outlined in the Vilnius Summit’s communiqué. As a result, the war is set to endure. 

Remarkably, the Ukraine War has already surpassed 17 months, and the parallels with the Soviet Union’s nine-year protracted conflict in Afghanistan are eerily striking. This war looms large for Moscow, with a much wider front to contend with. Barring significant improvements, it could span another 5 years or even longer – a timeline that seems to align with the US’s likely plan.

NATO expansion and Russia’s military challenges 

The US may be banking on a shift in power or regime change within Russia during this protracted conflict. The continuous strain of a war economy on Moscow may eventually lead to public discontent, furthering internal turmoil. 

To maintain its military manpower, Russia has even raised the maximum military conscription age from 27 to 30, highlighting the challenges faced in assembling a large pool of trained soldiers. This is why mercenary structures like Wagner are needed, even if they pose challenges themselves. 

Meanwhile, the west, especially Europe, grapples with its own set of socio-economic problems. Escalating living costs, surging energy prices, inflation, economic contractions, an influx of Ukrainian refugees, rising unemployment, and growing public dissent against the war paint a grim picture. 

France has experienced uprisings that nearly resemble a civil war, while Germany’s decision to distance itself from Russian energy has dealt a severe blow to its industries and economy.

Amidst all this, the US appears to be the sole benefactor in the ongoing conflict. Safeguarding its interests without risking the lives of its soldiers, the US deftly maneuvers in a global struggle. Through its actions, it both challenges Russia and strengthens NATO and Europe behind its cause. 

Defense budgets of NATO countries are soaring, its arms and energy sector are revitalized, and its market share expands, culminating in an anti-Russian stronghold in the Baltic Sea, even securing the involvement of Finland and Sweden on NATO’s Northern flank.

Shifts towards multipolarity 

Despite this, the US has faced challenges to its global hegemony. The situation in West Asia and China’s expanding influence are just a few examples of the changing dynamics. Traditional allies like Saudi Arabia are seeking cooperation with Beijing through projects like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), while Iran maintains resilience despite sanctions, forging ties with Persian Gulf states such as Qatar and the UAE. 

Russia and Saudi Arabia’s increasing energy collaboration further underscores the shifting landscape, while India defiantly continues to buy weapons from Russia. These developments are contributing to a natural evolution towards multipolarity, with various countries asserting their interests and pursuing independent paths. 

Efforts to reduce the reliance on the US dollar are indicative of this trend. Nonetheless, the US remains committed to fighting this struggle to preserve its global leadership and hegemony, aware that time may be working in China’s favor.

One notable development occurred on 22 July, 2022, when Russia, Ukraine, and the UN signed the “Black Sea Grain Iniative” with Turkiye’s mediation. The goal was to facilitate the safe export of cereals, foodstuffs, ammonia, and fertilizers from Ukrainian ports. 

Simultaneously, Russia signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the UN Secretariat to support the sale of Russian food and fertilizer products to global markets. However, due to embargoes, SWIFT and insurance barriers, Russia was unable to export any grain and fertilizer. 

But Russia withdrew from the agreement one year later. It turned out that in Africa, the claim that people are at risk of starving because Ukraine can’t access grain is not true. Only 12 percent of the grain exported from Ukraine in a year was sent to the continent, and 40 percent was instead directed to Europe. 

Turkiye’s geopolitical tightrope 

Turkiye, although a NATO member, has tried to maintain a relatively neutral stance since the start of the Ukraine War. This policy was influenced by several factors, including Ankara’s geopolitical position, energy dependence on Russia, trade relations, and Moscow’s support during a time when President Recep Tayyip Erdogan faced isolation from the west. 

Under Erdogan, Turkiye has played a vital role in maintaining channels for Russia during the conflict, initially causing concern among US officials. However, the US eventually acknowledged Turkiye’s role as part of its long-term strategy for a war of attrition. Nevertheless, Washington remains cautious, knowing that it could potentially close such channels through various means if needed in the future.

The situation following Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal has the potential to significantly impact grain prices and food supply. As tensions rise in the Black Sea region, the NATO-Ukraine Council’s meeting on the security situation indicates that the waters may become increasingly heated in the weeks and months ahead. 

The US and NATO are expected to play a more active role in the southern flank and the Black Sea, making it crucial for Turkiye to exercise caution and vigilance regarding these developments and the potential moves of the US and NATO in relation to the Ukraine War and the Black Sea.

Strategic options for Black Sea grain security

Considering possible moves of the US and NATO in the Black Sea and their potential demands from Turkiye, the following options are conceivable:

Option 1: Turkiye, with the largest naval power in the Black Sea, could form a maritime task group to protect ships carrying grain from Ukrainian ports to the Bosphorus Strait for international markets. This task group would be guarded against Russian submarine, surface, and air threats with intelligence support from NATO. While this option does not violate the Montreux Straits Convention, it may still lead to confrontation with Russia and provoke Russian intervention in response to the naval task group’s presence.

Option 2: Another possibility is a naval task force led by Tukiye and involving Bulgaria and Romania to safeguard ships transporting grain from Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea to the Bosphorus against potential Russian submarine, surface, and air threats. Like the first option, this approach avoids direct violation of the Montreux Straits Convention but carries the risk of escalating tensions and inviting Russian intervention in the task group’s operations.

Option 3: Alternatively, NATO could deploy a naval task group, including one or two US aircraft carriers, to protect grain shipments in the Black Sea. This formidable force might deter President Vladimir Putin from intervening, given the potential consequences of such action. However, this option would irreversibly breach the Montreux Straits Convention, necessitating a new agreement to regulate maritime passage through the Turkish straits.

Preserving the Montreux Straits Convention

During the First Cold War, the Montreux Straits Convention’s restrictions on the presence of warships from non-littoral states prevented the Black Sea from becoming a theater of confrontation between superpowers. This provided Turkiye with the opportunity to pursue a balanced foreign policy, which would have been challenging in a volatile and heavily militarized region.

Given the importance of the Convention, Ankara should resist attempts to undermine it and avoid actions that may escalate tensions and conflicts in the strategic waterway, possibly leading to a global war. Instead, Turkiye should advocate for reaching agreements and maintaining dialogue with Russia to ensure the smooth transfer of regional grain to the international market through the Black Sea.

Despite economic difficulties and pressure for short-term gains, Turkiye should prioritize long-term stability and peace in the region. It is essential to protect critical infrastructure, such as natural gas pipelines, from potential sabotage attempts, as they are vital for the country’s energy security. As such, Ankara should develop comprehensive plans and strategies to safeguard its interests, including exploration, surveillance, and monitoring activities in the air, on the surface, and underwater. 

Ultimately, Turkiye’s approach to regional challenges should be guided by foresight, diplomacy, and a commitment to maintaining the Black Sea as a zone of peace and cooperation. By doing so, Turkiye can continue to play a crucial role in fostering stability and security in this strategically significant region.

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of The Cradle.

Mr Putin at the expanded meeting of the Prosecutor General’s Office Board.

April 25, 2022

At the expanded meeting of the Prosecutor General’s Office Board. Photo: RIA Novosti

President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Mr Prosecutor General, colleagues,

Earlier this year, we celebrated 300 years of the Russian Prosecution Service, once again emphasising its significant role in the history of the Fatherland, the development of our society and the building of the foundations of a rule-of-law state.

During the annual expanded meeting of the Prosecutor General’s Office Board today, we will sum up the results of your work in 2021, considering the current situation, and will discuss objectives for the short and long term.

I should note that over this latest period, the prosecution bodies have maintained positive momentum with respect to a whole range of key performance indicators. Prompt intervention by prosecutors helped to protect the social rights of over 1 million citizens, including paying almost 20.5 billion rubles in wage arrears.

Prosecutors of different ranks receive members of the public, showing a higher effectiveness rate. The number of appointments increased by more than 11 percent last year, exceeding 1 million people. Statistics show that the majority of issues reported by people were resolved. The Prosecutor General personally took charge of the most critical cases.

Here is what I would like to say in this connection. There are a number of appeals filed by our citizens concerning the issues they raise regularly but which often take years to resolve – this is what we must focus our attention on. I would like to say that prosecutors’ efforts on a specific issue are not always effective for objective reasons or because of [the lack of] funding or because of the regional and local authorities’ policies. Nevertheless, members of the prosecution service must work together with regional and municipal teams, involving the federal authorities to deal with the essential aspects of the problems each particular person is facing. I ask you not to take a formal attitude to these matters, limiting your work to reporting on the prosecutor’s response measures taken, but to really work towards the settlement of problems at the given level.

Next, it is largely thanks to your contribution that the number of unjustified inspections of businesses has decreased. You have cut short the propaganda of extremism in the information space and the illegal activities of some NGOs.

The prosecution agencies must continue improving their performance in the key areas, giving more attention to the protection of legitimate civil rights and freedoms, including social and labour rights.

Of course, I simply must mention the unprecedented sanctions pressure the Western countries have put on Russia over recent years. As all of us are aware, this pressure increased after we launched the special military operation to support the Donbass people’s republics.

The Government and our regions are taking large-scale measures to support the citizens of Russia, and we must ensure the uninterrupted operation of these social protection mechanisms at all levels. I am referring, in part, to the timely transfer of pensions, payments and benefits to low-income and large families, and the enhancement of employment assistance programmes.

In this connection, I would like to ask prosecutors, acting within the framework of their authority, to develop a special system to oversee compliance with laws during the implementation of support measures for people and all the key, socially-oriented programmes.

The state is also there to support the key manufacturing sectors, which employ millions of people in our country. The Russian economy has everything it takes to operate in a stable and uninterrupted manner in this new reality.

At the same time, it is the freedom of entrepreneurship and flexible business mechanisms that ensure that the market gets the goods it needs, help mitigate deficits and smooth out price surges. I would like to urge you to make sure that all the rights of entrepreneurs are complied with and to create a business-friendly environment for them.

However, if someone abuses their monopoly or engages in behind-the-scenes price-fixing, both the anti-trust watchdogs and the prosecutor’s office must respond in a timely and concise manner.

Russian businesses have been acting with a lot of dignity these days. Many small and medium-sized companies have yet to recover from the pandemic, but they are now facing new barriers related to the aggression against Russia, which took on the form of sanctions. In fact, aggression through sanctions – this the only way I can define what it is going on. In this situation, we need to do everything to support Russian businesses and use all the available means to this effect, including by reducing the administrative burden.

Of course, there are spheres that require inspections, especially on matters affecting people’s lives and health. In all other situations, we decided to declare a moratorium.

We need to let Russian businesses and those of the foreign companies who continue, against all odds, performing their obligations in good faith, work in peace. We need to shield businesses from excessive, unjustified and unnecessary controls. We have all the instruments we need to do this.

Of course, we must be firm in curbing any impairment of rights of businesses receiving state support or preferences. The system to support entrepreneurs must operate in all clarity and create a business-friendly environment.

Colleagues,

I would like to specifically discuss the tasks facing the prosecution agencies and the entire law enforcement sphere in connection with the special military operation in Donbass and Ukraine.

The special operation has exposed multiple violations of international law by Ukrainian neo-Nazi groups as well as foreign mercenaries. We are referring to extreme atrocities such as killing civilians, using people, including children, as human shields, and other crimes. Flagrant provocations against our Armed Forces, also with the use of resources such as foreign media and social networks, also require a thorough investigation.

At the same time, it is also necessary to suppress any crimes on the territory of the Russian Federation in the most decisive manner. This morning, the Federal Security Service thwarted a terrorist group that planned to attack and assassinate a well-known Russian television journalist. They will definitely deny this now, but the facts and evidence are irrefutable.

In this regard, I would like to say the following. To our surprise, high-ranking diplomats in Europe and the United States are urging their Ukrainian satellites to use their resources to win on the battlefield. Our partners in the United States are using such strange diplomacy – diplomats are even calling for this. But as they realise that this is impossible, they try to achieve a different objective instead – to split Russian society, to destroy Russia from within. But here, too, there is a hitch; this hasn’t worked either. Our society has shown maturity and solidarity; it supports our Armed Forces and supports our efforts to ensure Russia’s ultimate security and help the people living of Donbass. This actually means support for our people living in Donbass. So when they failed to achieve their information goals – they continued to fool their citizens of course, using their monopoly position in their countries’ information space and in some other countries, but they failed here, on the territory of Russia – they switched to terror, to arranging the murder of our journalists.

In this regard, it should be noted of course that we know the names of all the Western handlers, of all members of Western services, primarily the CIA, who are working with Ukrainian security agencies. Apparently, they are giving them such advice. This is their attitude towards the rights of journalists, towards the dissemination of information; this is their attitude towards human rights in general. All they care about is their own rights, some cherishing imperial ambitions, others holding on to their colonial past in the old-fashioned way. But this will not work in Russia.

I am asking the Investigative Committee of Russia, and all investigative bodies to record such crimes in detail, to identify their masterminds and perpetrators, to initiate criminal cases and bring them to trial, as they should. Prosecutors and investigators should carefully study these and all other facts, collect the necessary evidence to make a case, which should be used in court proceedings, including at the international level. Let me emphasise that such evidence should be accumulated for all the crimes committed by neo-Nazis and their accomplices, starting with the coup d’état in Kiev in 2014, which paved the way for civil war, bloodshed and violence in Ukraine.

Next point. We should pay special attention to people arriving to Russia from Ukraine, from the Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics. As of today, they number nearly one million, including over 100,000 children. People who had to leave their homes are not always in possession of the documents needed to get material aid, medical support, and to enrol children in schools or kindergartens. I urge the Prosecutor General’s Office to render these people legal assistance and protect their rights, including by reviewing their applications within the shortest possible timeframes. It is hard for these people, help them.

Colleagues,

As before, coordinating the law enforcement agencies in the fight against crime remains among the absolute and most important tasks facing the prosecution service. Yes, the fact that an almost 100-percent solve rate has been achieved with regard to the gravest crimes can be described as a good result.

But the statistics are not so good as far as the solve rate for thefts and fraud is concerned. I discussed this in detail at the Interior Ministry’s board meeting in February. I would like you to offer proposals on how to change the situation and improve the solve rate for these crimes.

The prosecutors should also be more proactive in fighting extremism. It is important to consolidate the positive results achieved in this area and put a firm stop to any actions directed at interfering in Russia’s internal affairs from the outside, destabilising our society, and fomenting xenophobia, militant nationalism and interfaith enmity. And, of course, it is necessary to respond without delay to any instances of spreading on the internet radical ideologies and false information that provoke violations of law and order or preparations for illegal actions. They are often organised from abroad, and this is done in different ways, with either information or money coming in from those parts.

As before, protecting the rights of minors is among the priorities of the prosecution agencies. It is necessary to follow more closely and impose more severe punishments for crimes committed against children and adolescents, as well as to take additional measures to radically reduce the number of offences in this area, including pre-emptive and preventive measures.

Next, we should focus on checking how the federal budget funds are spent, primarily funds allocated for federal and national projects, as part of our fight against corruption. But, of course, we should not forget about the municipal level and the regional level, and also keep an eye on the funds spent to fulfil the state defence order and develop the defence industry.

You should pay close attention to some other important areas, including skilled support for government cases in court, environmental protection and management, and oversight of compliance with the rights of inmates of detention facilities.

I am confident that the prosecutors are well aware of the scope and importance of the tasks facing their agency and will do all they can for their effective implementation.

Colleagues, I want to thank the heads and the personnel of the prosecution service for their dedicated work.

I wish you new, significant achievements. Thank you very much.

• Secretary-General Antonio Guterres: joint press conference

A History of NATO and Nazis, with Asa Winstanley

March 18th, 2022

Source

By Lowkey

Asa Winstanley explores post-WW2 European history and reveals how Nazis were rehabilitated and dispatched as Cold Warriors.

his week Lowkey is joined by Asa Winstanley, an investigative journalist living in London, who writes about Palestine and the Middle East. He hails from the south of Wales and has been visiting Palestine since 2004. He writes for the groundbreaking Palestinian news site The Electronic Intifada, where he is an associate editor, and also writes a weekly column for the Middle East Monitor.

Following the NATO Bucharest Summit in 2008, several conclusions were reached and published in a joint statement of those attending. One read: “NATO welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO. We agree today that these countries will become members of NATO.”

At the time, the Russian government made absolutely clear that Ukraine becoming part of NATO was an existential threat to Russia’s security. In 2003, the Ukraine NATO Civic League was founded with the aim of gradually integrating the state into the military alliance. Across the decade-and-a-half since, the U.S. has pushed further and further, steering Ukraine to the point of no return.

Today, Russia has NATO missile systems pointed at it from Poland and Romania. If missiles were to be placed in Ukraine aimed at Russia, they would be only 500 km from Moscow. Asa Winstanley makes the point that, were someone to suggest an equivalent arrangement by Russia with Mexico against the United States, the U.S. would likewise respond with force. The economic side of this war has seen Russia cancel from the global economy and effectively separated from Europe. The closing of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is a major victory for U.S. liquid natural gas producers, who can now take over the market for gas in Europe overnight.

Since 2019, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has integrated Neo-Nazis into the Ukrainian state to serve as a bulwark against Russia. We now have the clear situation of NATO arming and training Nazi organizations. But this is not an aberration of history. NATO and the United States have embraced Nazis many times before. Lowkey and Winstanley delve into the sordid story of these strange bedfellows. “This is a big unspoken part of our history,” Winstanley said.

Winstanley explores the post-WW2 period of European history and reveals examples of Nazis being rehabilitated, subsumed into the U.S. machinery of empire, and dispatched as Cold Warriors. He points to an irony of history that the Soviet Union itself tried to join NATO at one point:

If you look at the history of NATO, the Russians, the USSR at the time, knew what this was about — it was about creating an anti-Russian military alliance at the beginning of the Cold War. The Russians said OK, it is a defensive alliance, we’ll join. They applied to join and of course, they were rejected.”

Winstanley also expands on his investigation into Israel’s controversial arming of Ukraine’s Neo-Nazi Azov battalion with Taavor rifles. Another unspoken aspect of the present is the relationship between Ukrainian-Israeli oligarch Igor Kolomoisky and President Zelensky. Kolomoisky was his top funder in the 2019 election and also a key benefactor of the Azov battalion. Pointing out this uncomfortable truth has led to significant ramifications in the digital sphere. Winstanley, who is currently suspended from Twitter for pointing out the NATO alliance with Neo-Nazis, said, “We are reaching a really dangerous moment where this McCarthyism is being whipped up.”