The Real Syria Story No One Wants You to Know About

RSFP

The conflict in Syria and the flashpoint of Daraa, a town near the Syria-Jordan border where the CIA, working with the Muslim Brotherhood, attacked police and set the stage for a conflict that has so far claimed the lives of more than 400,000 Syrians. The proxy war is designed to take down a secular government and replace it with a Salafist principality controlled by the Brotherhood, a longtime CIA and British intelligence asset. ~ Notes HERE

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This is China’s century, it is known by America هذا قرن الصين تعرفه أميركا

 This is China’s century, it is known by America

أكتوبر 31, 2017

Written by Nasser Kandil,

Those who are deeply involved  in reading the American unilateral and insist on being dazzled by the fact that America was and will remain the main player in the international arena,  have to return to the writings of the neo-conservatives and the expectations of the US major thinkers as Samuel Huntington, Francis Fukuyama and Bernard Lewis about the last opportunity of America for investing in order to stabilize its leadership, which its ceiling is the first quarter of the twenty-first century, otherwise China is coming. This century is China’s, the time of collapse and decline in the situation of Russia will end before the end of the first quarter of the twenty-first century. The economic power of China will get it out to politics and markets together, and it will converge with Russia in the attempt to replace the dollar as the main currency in the world. So what is available for America and what it must not be delayed for is to stick to the energy resources and the ways of their flow before the end of the deadline. The war on the region between the Caspian, the Red, the Black and the Mediterranean Seas will determine the fate of the world, its system, and its leadership. By the way it is the region for which the Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad has called its leaders to form a regional system under the name of the five seas region, but after adding the Gulf to them.

The war of the five seas has occurred but it will not continue after it lost the momentum. What has affected the US war in its goals, alliances, and its armies is enough to announce its failure, and the quest to stick to the energy resources to control the Chinese growth and the price of the Chinese goods has become a lost dream, moreover, the plans of controlling the energy flow from Russia to Europe have failed, and its sale has been imposed with cheap prices in order to grant the heavy European economics the opportunities to grow, beholding it the costs of including the poor countries of the Eastern Europe in order to tighten the siege of Russia to force it to surrender. The war is approaching of its end; Russia and China have the keys of economic, military, and political rise, most importantly to reach the seas, while Syria was the key opportunity for that positioning.

Russia and China have tested two experiences towards internationality, but their essence was the same, the failure which affected the traditional example of socialism with the experience of the Soviet Union has led them practically towards the state capitalism, whether it was called in Russia the social liberalism and the multi-capitalist economy or was called in China the socialist market economy. The essence of the new economy of the two countries based on a country that sticks to the strategic resources of economy and leaves the free competition to the private sector, and which sticks strongly to the social role of the country through the high social guarantees presented by it to the poor and those of small income.

But the new state capitalism in China and Russia depends on a new pillar; its socialist content, where the transformation which each of Russia and China inserted into their understanding of the socialist economics depends, it is the realization that the surplus value which achieves the capital accumulation is not in the labor force and what the producers do, which means not in the production, as what Karl Marx and Frederic Engels, the founders of socialism wrote, but in the exchange, where the transportation of goods, the raw materials, and the energy resources play a pivotal role in determining the quantity of the capital accumulation which is achieved by production. The exchange is the next step of the four economic processes through which Marx and Engels have summarized the capital process ” production, distribution, exchange, and consumption” No matter if the Chinese or the Russians formulated this transformation in the concept of the economic philosophy as much as it is important that it forms the essence power of Russia and China today. Today Russia is a state of oil and gas pipelines, while China is the state of railways.

Those who observe China and Russia during the past quarter will discover the size of the linkage between the economic growth of both of them and the sticking of the country to the essence of the economic process. for example, In Russia, there are means of transferring energy, while in China there are means for transferring the raw materials and goods, and will discover also an objective proportion  between this growth and the natural wealth of the two countries. Russia is the country of oil and gas, while China is the country of steel, He will discover as well the reasons of the superiority of Russia and China and their success through avoiding the fall before the US efforts of hegemony, through the sticking  strongly to the virtual transportation  of energy and goods together which are represented by the banking transactions, it is a means that cannot be developed and it is not suitable to achieve the development of the American economy but virtually, as has happened in the stock exchange of Wall Street before its explosion,  and in the real estate market before its bankruptcy. While China will have an open range of  development as long as the railways which it tries to form commensurate with the size of the goods which it produces and  which are able to be marketed at home and abroad. Russia will have the opportunities as long as the oil and gas pipelines which it makes commensurate with the market need of oil and gas to which it exports and which need them but at a satisfactory price that suits the production averages and their prices. Washington entered the phase in which its growth became negative, after it transcended the red lines to expand its banking market and its paper transactions to the ceilings of the goods and the real goods around which money, banks and the stock markets circulate. Perhaps waging a war by America is an expression of the inability to play with time without a violent intervention that changes the course of the natural developments and bears the consequences of the competition which is determined by nature.

China exceeds Russia because it is an internal market that is wider four times, and because it produces goods and commodities not only the energy resources and the raw materials. So within few years it will reach according to the recognition of the International Monetary Fund the world’s largest economy after surpassing the American economy, and it will reach according to the recognition of the same Fund the first country in possessing the money in circulation, thus it will surpass Japan. Because there is no limit that prevents what is needed by the global market from the Chinese goods at reasonable prices, the success of China internationality will depend on solving problems of the local assembly which is close to the markets in order to save the cost and to try to protect through getting a consensus from the producers, and the winning of challenge will depend on the arrival of the goods to the markets at a suitable time and cost , just for that China prepares itself for a global campaign through One Belt One Road Initiative which based on the transportation network and industrial free zones to Asia towards the gates of Europe and Africa, and which its wide outcome will start to emerge in the year 2025 and will end within a context of an accelerated sustained growth in 2050.

Within years China will be able to absorb a huge amounts of the Gulf oil and the Russian, Iranian, and Qatari gas, as it will be able to spread huge quantities of its half-manufactured goods to hundreds of the industrial free zones that are built around hundreds of thousands of kilometers of the railways, it will spread in the markets more quantities of the consumer goods that are ready to be consumed directly.  The Chinese steel will be the crossing bridge through giant transport lines and exceptional high-speed trains. China will have surplus of thousands of trillions of currencies that are not monopolized by the US dollar including the Russia Ruble and the Chinese Yuan, therefore, the world will be in demand and China will expose its goods.

The Chinese and the Russian challenge represents by the ability to adapt the European West and the American to accept a balance in exchanging the outcomes of economy and its experiences, a balance in the game of power, and a balance in the management of politics because the years to come will grant Russia and China the opportunity of partnership between the first production country represented by China and the first energy and power country represented by Russia, so it will be difficult or even impossible to resist this bilateral. As Russia abandoned the race of arming in favor of reviving its economy decades ago, the West countries will take the initiative to call to eliminate of the useless accumulated nuclear arsenals in order to return the revival to its economy.

The sentence which was said by the President Bashar Al-Assad “ Heading eastward”  is neither mere a political choice for our country nor a reward for those who stood with us only, but it is a conscious anticipation for what is coming inevitably.

Xi Jinping is the new leader of China; he is coming with the giant railways, fast trains, and multi-cheap goods. Keep this name into your minds.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

هذا قرن الصين تعرفه أميركا

ناصر قنديل

أكتوبر 27, 2017

– للذين يتوهون في تفاصيل الاستغراق بقراءة الأحادية الأميركية ويصرّون على الانبهار بأنّ أميركا كانت وستبقى اللاعب الرئيسي المقرّر على الساحة الدولية، أن يعودوا إلى كتابات المحافظين الجدد، وتوقعات كبار المفكرين الأميركيين، من أمثال صموئيل هنتنغتون، وفرانسيس فوكوياما، وبرنارد لويس، عن فرصة أميركية لاستثمار سقفه الربع الأول من القرن الحادي والعشرين لتثبيت زعامتها، وإلا فإنّ الصين قادمة، والقرن قرن الصين، وأنّ زمن الانهيار والتراجع في حالة روسيا سينتهي قبل نهاية الربع الأول من القرن الحادي والعشرين، وأنّ قوة الصين الاقتصادية ستخرجها إلى السياسة والأسواق معاً وستجمعها مع روسيا على السعي لاستبدال الدولار كعملة رئيسية في العالم، وما تستطيعه أميركا وما يجب ألا تتأخر عنه هو الإمساك بمنابع الطاقة وطرق تدفقها، قبل نهاية المهلة، والحرب على منطقة ما بين بحار قزوين والأسود والأحمر والمتوسط ستقرّر مصير العالم ونظامه وزعامته، وهي بالمناسبة المنطقة التي دعا الرئيس السوري بشار الأسد قادتها لتشكيل منظمة إقليمية باسم منطقة البحار الخمسة مضيفاً الخليج إلى البحار الأربعة لتصير خمسة.

– دارت حرب البحار الخمسة ولن تستمرّ بعدما فقدت قوة الدفع، ولو جرجرت ذيولها لما تبقى من الربع الأول من القرن الحادي والعشرين، فما أصاب الحرب الأميركية بأهدافها وتحالفاتها وجيوشها كاف لإعلان فشلها، والسعي لإمساك مصادر الطاقة للتحكم بالنمو الصيني وأسعار السلع الصينية صار حلماً فائتاً، كما فشلت خطط التحكم بتدفق الطاقة من روسيا إلى أوروبا وفرض بيعها بأسعار رخيصة لتمنح الاقتصادات الأوروبية الثقيلة فرص النمو، وتعوّض عليها أكلاف ضمّها الدول الفقيرة شرق أوروبا بهدف إحكام حصار روسيا تمهيداً لفرض الاستسلام عليها. فالحرب تضع أوزارها أو تكاد بينما روسيا والصين تمسكان بمفاتيح الصعود الاقتصادي والسياسي والعسكري، والأهمّ بلوغ البحار، وقد كانت سورية مفتاح فرص هذا التموضع.

– خاضت روسيا والصين تجربتين مختلفين نحو العالمية، لكن جوهرهما واحد. فالفشل الذي أصاب النموذج التقليدي للاشتراكية مع تجربة الاتحاد السوفياتي، دفع بهما عملياً نحو رأسمالية الدولة، سواء جرت تسميتها في روسيا بالليبرالية المجتمعية والاقتصاد الرأسمالي المتعدّد، أو سمّيت في الصين باقتصاد السوق الاشتراكي، فجوهر اقتصاد البلدين الجديد يقوم على دولة تمسك بالمصادر الاستراتيجية للاقتصاد وتترك التنافس الحرّ للقطاع الخاص في سواها، وتتمسك بقوة بدور الدولة الاجتماعي بضمانات اجتماعية عالية تقدّمها الدولة للفقراء وذوي الدخل المحدود.

– لكن رأسمالية الدولة الجديدة في الصين وروسيا تعتمد على ركيزة جديدة هي مضمونها الاشتراكي، حيث يتشكل قلب التحوّل الذي أدخلته كلّ من روسيا والصين على فهمهما للاقتصاد الاشتراكي، هو إدراك أنّ فائض القيمة الذي يحقق التراكم الرأسمالي ليس في قوة العمل وما يبذله المنتجون، أيّ ليس في الإنتاج كما كتب كارل ماركس وفريديريك أنغلز، مؤسّسا الاشتراكية، بل في التبادل، حيث تلعب وسائل نقل السلع والمواد الخام وموارد الطاقة الدور المحوري في تحديد كمية التراكم الرأسمالي الذي يحققه الإنتاج، والتبادل هو الحلقة التالية من العمليات الاقتصادية الأربع التي لخّص بها العبقريان ماركس وأنغلز العملية الرأسمالية، «الإنتاج والتوزيع والتبادل والاستهلاك»، وليس مهماً إنْ صاغ الصينيون والروس هذا التحوّل بمفهوم فلسفة اقتصادية بقدر أهمية أنه يشكل جوهر قوة روسيا والصين اليوم، فروسيا دولة أنابيب النفط والغاز، والصين دولة خطوط سكك الحديد.

– مَن يراقب الصين وروسيا خلال ربع قرن مضى سيكتشف حجم الرابط بين النمو الاقتصادي لكليهما، بنمو إمساك الدولة بجوهر العملية الاقتصادية. في روسيا وسائل نقل الطاقة، وفي الصين وسائل نقل المواد الخام والبضائع، وسيكتشف تناسباً موضوعياً بين هذا النمو والثروات الطبيعية للبلدين، فروسيا بلد النفط والغاز والصين بلد الفولاذ، وسيكتشف أسباب تفوّق روسيا والصين ونجاحهما بتفادي السقوط أمام المساعي الأميركية للهيمنة بقوة الإمساك بوسيلة النقل الافتراضية للطاقة والبضائع معاً، التي تمثلها المعاملات البنكية، وهي وسيلة غير قابلة للنمو ولا تصلح بذاتها لتحقيق التنمية للاقتصاد الأميركي إلا افتراضياً، كما حدث في بورصات وول ستريت قبل انفجارها الدفتري، وفي سوق العقارات قبل إفلاسها. بينما في المقابل سيكون للصين مدى مفتوح في النمو ما دامت سكك الحديد التي تبنيها وتسعى لبنائها تتناسب مع حجم البضائع التي تنتجها والقابلة للتسويق في الداخل أو الخارج، ومثلها روسيا سيكون لها الفرص ما دامت أنابيب الغاز والنفط التي تنشئها متناسبة مع مقدار حاجة الأسواق للنفط والغاز الذي تصدّره إلى أسواق تحتاجه بسعر يناسب معادلات الإنتاج وأسعارها بينما واشنطن دخلت المرحلة التي صار نموّها فيها سلبياً، بعدما اجتازت الخطوط الحمراء لتوسّع سوقها المصرفية ومعاملاتها الورقية لسقوف البضائع والسلع الحقيقية التي يقوم المال وتقوم المصارف والبورصات بتداولها. ولعلّ الإقدام على خوض الحرب من الجانب الأميركي تعبير عن العجز عن اللعب مع الزمن دون تدخل عنيف يغيّر مسار التطورات الطبيعية، وتحمل نتائج التنافس الذي تقرّره الطبيعة.

– تتقدّم الصين على روسيا بكونها سوقاً داخلية أوسع بأربع مرات، وبكونها تنتج البضائع والسلع لا موارد الطاقة والمواد الخام فقط، ولذلك فهي ستبلغ في أعوام قليلة باعتراف صندوق النقد الدولي مرتبة الاقتصاد الأكبر في العالم، بعد تجاوزها للاقتصاد الأميركي، وستبلغ أيضاً باعتراف الصندوق نفسه مرتبة الدولة الأولى في امتلاك الكتل النقدية وتتخطى بذلك اليابان، ولأنّ لا مساحة تحدّ مما يحتاجه السوق العالمي من سلع صينية بأسعار مناسبة، سيتوقف نجاح عالمية الصين على حلّ معضلات التجميع المحلي القريب من الأسواق توفيراً للكلفة وسعياً للحماية بالحصول على توافق مع المنتجين فيها. كما سيتوقف الفوز بالتحدّي على وصول السلع للأسواق بوقت مناسب وكلفة مناسبة، لذلك تستعدّ الصين لحملة عالميتها بمشروع الحزام والطريق، القائم على شبكة مواصلات ومناطق حرة صناعية عابرتين لآسيا، وصولاً إلى أبواب أوروبا وأفريقيا، مقدّر له أن يبدأ ثماره الواسعة في العام 2025 وأن يبلغ نهايته في سياق نمو متسارع ومستديم في العام 2050.

– خلال سنوات ستكون الصين قادرة على امتصاص كميات هائلة من النفط الخليجي والغاز الروسي والإيراني والقطري، كما ستكون قادرة على ضخّ كميات هائلة من بضائعها نصف المصنّعة إلى مئات المناطق الصناعية الحرة التي تبنيها على محطات تتوزّع حول مئات آلاف الكيلومترات من سكك الحديد، وستقذف في الأسواق كميات أكبر من السلع الاستهلاكية الجاهزة للاستهلاك مباشرة، حيث الفولاذ الصيني سيكون جسر العبور بخطوط نقل عملاقة وقطارات سريعة لا مثيل لها في العالم، وستمتلك الصين فوائض مالية بآلاف التريليونات من سلة عملات لا يحتكرها الدولار الأميركي، يدخل بين مصنفاتها الروبل الروسي واليوان الصيني، وسيكون العالم في موضع الطلب والصين في موقع العرض.

– التحدّي الصيني والروسي يقف عند حدود القدرة على تطويع الغرب الأوروبي والأميركي لارتضاء توازن في تبادل خيرات الاقتصاد وخبراته، وتوازن في لعبة القوة، وتوازن في إدارة السياسة، لأنّ المقبل من السنوات سيمنح روسيا والصين فرصة الشراكة بين دولة الإنتاج الأولى التي ستمثلها الصين، ودولة القوة والطاقة الأولى التي تمثلها روسيا، وسيكون صعباً، بل مستحيلاً مقاومة سطوة هذا الثنائي. ومثلما تخلت روسيا عن سباق التسلح لإصلاح اقتصادها قبل عقود، ستجد دول الغرب أنها مَن سيبادر للدعوة للتخلص من الترسانات النووية المكدّسة بلا طائل، لتمكين اقتصاداتها من الانطلاق مجدّداً.

– التوجه شرقاً، الجملة التي قالها الرئيس بشار الأسد ليست مجرد خيار سياسي لبلادنا، ولا هي مكافأة لمن وقفوا معنا فقط، بل هي استباق واعٍ لما هو آت لا محالة.

– شي جينغ بينغ زعيم الصين الجديد، آتٍ بسكك الحديد العملاقة والقطارات السريعة، والسلع الرخيصة والمتعدّدة، احفظوا هذا الاسم جيداً.

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The Guardian View on Saudi Arabia: The Seventh Son Rises

19-09-2017 | 13:50

A crackdown on dissent by the youngest heir apparent in Saudi history will not help the desert kingdom find a way out of an economic mess at home and misguided entanglements abroad

MBS

The ascension in June of Muhammed bin Salman as crown prince of Saudi Arabia was an instant Rorschach test for observers of the desert kingdom. Is he a reformer prepared to drag his kingdom, a repressive regime that writes very large welfare cheques, into the 21st century or a callow princeling whose rise to power could destabilize the region? The 31-year-old prince has undoubtedly amassed great power and dominates Saudi economic, diplomatic and domestic policy.

The crown prince, known as MBS, is also the architect of the bloody quagmire of the Yemen war and a hardliner in the current Gulf row with neighboring Qatar. His father, King Salman, 81, is not in good health, walks with a stick and suffers from brain fades in meetings. By anointing his seventh son as the youngest heir apparent in Saudi history, the ailing monarch has signaled a decisive break with the past.

If the first few months are a reliable guide, then the omens for the future are not good. The palace coup that saw MBS take power was bloodless. In the summer’s Game of Thrones, his powerful uncles and rivals were either sidelined or placed under house arrest. The sense of how riven the Saudi royal house is could be gleaned from reports, sourced from within the court, claiming the other leading contender for the throne had a drug problem. Last week it emerged that Saudi authorities had launched a crackdown on dissent, targeting Islamic thinkers, public critics and political rivals.

Two prominent clerics were taken away for failing to publicly declare their support for the crown prince’s stance toward Qatar.

Both are popular with the Saudi public, with millions of Twitter followers. Another journalist has been banned from writing opinion columns, while human rights activists have been given outlandish eight-year prison sentences for peaceful campaigning. Whatever MBS’s public face, this intolerance of dissent is almost paranoid.

If there was time for Saudi society to debate how to proceed, it’s probably now. Saudi Arabia was the cradle of [extremism] so its stability is a global concern. In domestic terms, Saudi Arabia is a mess.

The kingdom is the world’s largest oil exporter, with reserves of 260bn barrels – but it is a one-trick economy. Oil prices have plummeted from the highs of 2014, forcing Riyadh to spend some $200bn from its foreign exchange reserves to cover its deficit.

In response the crown prince instigated a Thatcherite program of privatization and subsidy cuts to balance the books. But these moves threatened the social contract between the royal family and its subjects, the majority of whom are under 35.
On the world stage, Saudi Arabia has been forced on the back foot by events and its own incompetence.

The war in Yemen, costly in civilian lives, and a blockade of Qatar are a result of draining infatuations.

Instead of succeeding, those obsessions have been embarrassments for the crown prince. Riyadh is now courting Iraq’s leadership – especially those close to Iran. It has withdrawn from Syria, leaving that country’s future in the hands of Moscow, Ankara and Tehran.

Source: The Guardian, Edited by website team

Hiding Behind Fighting Terrorism U.S. Intends to Seize Syria’s Oil

Source

By Anna Jaunger

Information Clearing House” –  As the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) progresses towards Deir Ezzor, the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), mostly made up of Syrian Kurds, began to prepare for a military offensive on the Syrian city in order to prevent the government forces from re-establishing military control over the oil rich-territory.

Despite all promises that the U.S. doesn’t intend to extend its presence in Syria after defeating ISIS, Washington continues to increase the number of American military and set up new bases in Syria.

Yesterday, Gulf News reported that the U.S.-led Coalition had dropped off an elite squad in the eastern part of the province of Deir Ezzor. According to many experts, its prior goal is to gather intelligence and prepare staging ground for the SDF’s offensive in Deir Ezzor.

This position is proved by Ahmed Abu Khawla, a SDF official. Khawla said, the SDF could start its assault on Deir Ezzor “within several weeks” in parallel with an ongoing battle for nearby Raqqa city. Khawla also added that all military plans were absolutely ready.

Besides, according to sources close to the SDF, the U.S.-backed forces intend to conduct assault from the province of Al-Hasakah, where the U.S. Special Forces troops were dropped off.

Considering the U.S. and the Coalition have illegally invaded Syria’s territory, there is only one way for Washington to remain in Syria – to establish full control over Deir Ezzor. In this case the United States are helped by the Kurds, who are also interested in seizing oil fields.

In his turn, Talal Silo, spokesman of the SDF, said that Washington had “a strategy policy for decades to come.”

Obviously, the U.S. actions in Syria are unlikely to be limited by fighting ISIS. Perhaps, it is only a part of the plan to destroy urban infrastructure and overthrow Assad’s government in Syria. Now it is extremely important for the SAA not to let the U.S.-backed forces to seize the initiative in Deir Ezzor. The future of the country and geopolitical strategic equation will depend on who will control the strategic region of oil rich-territory in Syria.

Anna Jaunger is a freelance journalist from Inside Syria Media Center.

SYRIA’S ENERGY INDUSTRY REVIVAL

“Exclusive to SyrPer” by Canthama
NATURAL GAS
Some perspectives on the recent gas fields liberated in Syria and their impact on the future economy of Syria:
From peak production in 2010, prior to the war of aggression against the Syrians, the natural gas production reached 8.9 million(M) cubic(cu) meters(mts) per day in Syria, and it has been in a free fall since then to 3.8M cu mts per day in 2016, 43% of the all time record (this is basically official production under the Government of Syria).
Just the mega Tuweinaan gas field, recently liberated in central Homs Province, mostly intact, will be able to produce 3.3M cu mts in 6 months time as per initial plan, which could be intensified so as to reach the milestone of 0.6M cu mts per day production in few weeks, then 1.1M cu mts per day in 2 months and full force in 6 months or 3.3M cu mts per day of natural gas, that would almost, alone, double the country’s 2016 production.
Together with Tuweinaan gas field, over two dozens of gas fields were also liberated in the past 2 months, though smaller in size and in production capacity versus Tuweinaan, the Syrian Government believes those liberated gas fields can reach the production level from 2010 in 6 to 12 months. The Palmyra area in central Syria is the site of much of this activity, including the recently liberated Arak gas field, which came on stream at the end of 1995. Other important gas fields in the Palmyra area include Al-Hayl (liberated) and Al Doubayaat (still under ISIS, but not for long) — both of which are “sweet gas” and two “sour gas” fields — and Najeeb (mostly liberated this past Sunday) and Sukhna (fully liberated), which came on stream in 2000. Most of these fields will likely enjoy expansions in output post-conflict.
The Syrian Government’s herculean effort, during the 7-year conflict, to pump as much gas from the fields that were kept safe under the control of the State, generated much higher output in those individual gas fields versus prior to 2010 output, which helped to minimize the loss in production with the majority of gas fields under the terrorists’ control. On top of that good performance, the newly liberated gas fields, when in full production, can be expected to produce over 10M cu mts per day sometime by 2018, which would by itself be an all-time record for the country and a much needed resource of power and heating.
It is important to note that it is yet to be seen whether brand new investments to extract natural gas from the shallow waters off the Mediterranean coast of Latakia and Tartous will be forthcoming. There are massive reserves ready for development which will be fairly cheap to extract due to the low depth water and the size of the reserves.  These underwater gas fields are similar to those identified on the Lebanese and Palestinian coasts.
OIL

Syria was never a major oil player, but it produced more than its internal needs prior to the war of aggression against it.  Syria produced some 400,000 barrels per day in 2010 (all time record of 600,000/day in 1996), exporting 30% of this volume to overseas customers.
Different from the natural gas production, the conflict severely affected the Syrian oil production (official), reducing it to a fraction of the 2010 level, 3% of it or 14,000 barrels a day. This number does not take into account the oil smuggled to Turkey/Iraq Kurdistan/Israel by ISIS or Al-Qaeda.
By far the major oil extraction is located in the Deir El-Zor Province, reaching 60%+ of the total 2010 production level, with ‘Umar field representing 80,000 barrels/day prior to the conflict, or 20% of national share. The oil found in Deir El-Zor back in the 1980s is the light-grade/low-sulphur oil, usually praised as high quality/value oil.
On the oil refinery side, Syria’s two oil refineries are located at Baniyas and Homs. Total refinery capacity from these refineries in 2004 was estimated at 239,865 bbl/d (132,725 bbl/d and 107,140 bbl/d, respectively). They survived intact the war of aggression against the Syrians, and this is going to be very important for the future of Syria. The two refineries are using imported oil at the moment, mostly from Russia and Iran.
Photo arquive: Baniyas Refinery
Photo arquive: Homs Refinery
It is clear that the liberation of all of Deir El-Zor’s oil fields will be vital for Syria’s recovery in 2018-2019 and will help bring new revenues from exports and most likely billions of Rubles, Dinars and Yuans in new construction projects and re-develpment of infrastructure.
In the next weeks the SAA and allies will be approaching the critical point when they will have to storm Deir El-Zor City and cross the Euphrates.  This will be a game changer for the economy of Syria and long-awaited endgame for ISIS.

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«Israeli» Energy Projects & The Fuel For Regional Instability

Theories related to Qatar’s role in the Syrian war and Doha’s desire to construct a natural gas pipeline that runs through Syria and supplies Europe have preoccupied analysts throughout the last five years.

Natural gas

But “Israel’s” energy ambitions have received far less media attention.

Within the space of ten years, the “Israelis” went from hardly even consuming natural gas to being a major producer, now eyeing significant export opportunities.

The real game changer was the discovery of the Leviathan field in the Mediterranean, which is estimated to hold at least 500 billion cubic meters of natural gas.

The December 2010 find was conveniently followed by the Syrian conflict just three months later.

However, the failure to oust the Damascus government ruled out prospects for the construction of overland pipelines – the cheapest delivery system to potential markets.

Instead, the “Israelis” had to turn to other more expensive alternatives to deliver their so-called ‘trapped gas’ to customers in Europe.

In early April, “Israel’s” energy minister, Yuval Steinitz, signed a preliminary agreement with Cyprus, Greece and Italy to pump natural gas across the Mediterranean, with costs estimated to run up to a whopping USD 7 billion.

Aside from being extremely pricy, the seabed pipeline would also be the world’s longest and deepest, extending for over 2,200km from “Israeli” and Cypriot offshore gas fields, to Greece and Italy.

But most experts agree that this supposed bold gambit on the part of Tel Aviv is nothing more than a tactic in negotiations with Turkey, where the “Israelis” are eyeing a much shorter, safer and most importantly, cheaper pipeline.

Erdogan’s dream of a pipeline crossroads

Last week, “Israel’s” Steinitz visited Ankara for a meeting with his Turkish counterpart, Berat Albayrak. The two agreed to speed up the adoption of an agreement for the construction of a pipeline that would carry “Israeli” natural gas to Europe through Cypriot waters, and onto Turkey.

The project, which directly undermines Europe’s main gas supplier – Russia – has already seen four rounds of negotiations between Ankara and Tel Aviv.

For the European Union and the bloc’s obsession with not becoming a ‘hostage’ to Russia’s Gazprom, the prospect of being able to rely on “Israeli” gas is welcome news in Brussels.

“We highly value gas supply from the region… that can make a valuable contribution to our strategy to diversify our sources and suppliers,” said the EU’s climate and energy commissioner, Miguel Arias Canete, after the “Israelis” and the Europeans reached their preliminary agreement in April.

Turkey’s motivations are equally ambitious.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has always dreamt of turning his country into a strategic pipeline crossroads; serving as a transit route for Russian, Caspian, Iraqi, Iranian, and, of course, Persian Gulf oil and gas to Europe.

His role in fueling the Syrian conflict was partly about turning this dream into reality, until the costs began to outweigh the benefits.

But despite the setbacks, Erdogan has still managed to clinch key agreements; the Trans Adriatic Pipeline [TAP] as well as the Turkish Stream, which will be transporting Caspian and Russian gas to the European continent via Turkey.

Hoping to bolster its role as a key gas portal for European states, Ankara now has its eye set the “Israeli” pipeline. The realization of these projects would undoubtedly transform Turkey from a regional to a global energy corridor.

Meanwhile, the “Israeli” energy minister and Premier Benjamin Netanyahu, have promoted the pipeline as a ‘win-win’ for both countries.

Naturally, for the increasingly isolated Tel Aviv, the benefits are far from just economic.

Becoming a leading energy exporter comes with obvious geostrategic advantages, which would also elevate foreign support for the “Israeli” occupation of Arab lands, as well as Tel Aviv’s frequent and bloody military adventures in the region.

That is an enticing prospect for the political and military establishment in Tel Aviv, and one worth going the extra mile for.

The “Israeli”-Lebanese maritime dispute

The recent natural gas discoveries are not confined to “Israeli” shores, but stretch across the eastern Mediterranean.

According to experts, the reserves are sizable, and the region has enormous potential to transform itself into an important supplier of the natural recourse.

Tel Aviv, though, is not exactly keen on having regional competitors.

If the “Israelis” are to fulfill their ambition of being crowned as a new global energy exporter, they need more than just the reserves found off their coast thus far, which pales in comparison to true gas giants – Russia, Iran and Qatar.

So, when the government in Lebanon, led by President Michel Aoun, published a tender in March to explore untapped gas and oil reserves that lie off the Lebanese coast, Tel Aviv was quick to react.

The “Israelis” laid claim to the 860 square-kilometer zone, which is believed to be flushed with natural gas reserves.

The move was described as a “declaration of war” by Lebanon’s parliament speaker, Nabih Berri.

Speaking to al-Jazeera on condition of anonymity at the time, an official from the Lebanese Ministry of National Defense estimated “that there are approximately 865 million barrels of oil and 96 trillion cubic feet of gas in that area”.

“This is something that “Israel” will fight tooth and nail for,” he said.

Although tensions have been rising for years between “Israel” and Lebanon over the contested waters, the likelihood of a military confrontation remains low.

However, it is important to point out that the leader of the Lebanese Resistance movement, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, repeatedly vowed to defend Lebanon’s natural recourses. He sent a very clear message – that Hezbollah was ready to take all necessary steps including the use of force, in order to prevent the “Israelis” from stealing the underwater reserves.

Meanwhile, Lebanese political factions have shown their willingness to cooperate in protecting the country’s gas and oil wealth.

The Lebanese state has also managed to adopt a pragmatic approach when challenging Tel Aviv’s claims, combining legal, political and economic measures.

The discoveries in the eastern Mediterranean certainly have the potential to help Lebanon attain higher energy security, improve its industry, transportation and power sectors.

Furthermore, the oil and gas revenues would have a very positive effect on the country’s public finances and the economy as a whole, while helping to reduce the cost of local goods and services.

Such prospects are unlikely to go down well in Tel Aviv. The “Israelis” are certainly more than just prone to employing the use of natural gas discoveries as a tool – not just to further their own economic interests – but to sabotage those of Lebanon.

Source: Al-Ahed News

22-07-2017 | 09:48

Gas wars: Syria, Qatar, and Putin- Trump Summit حروب الغاز: سورية وقطر وقمّة بوتين ترامب

Gas wars: Syria, Qatar, and Putin- Trump Summit

يوليو 17, 2017

Written by Nasser Kandil,

Energy experts say that the Twentieth century was the century of oil par excellence, while the Twenty-first century is the gas century, and that the global status of America in the twentieth century which is associated with its dominance on oil markets, oil exploration, and export companies is threatened to be moved to Russia which has parallel strength in gas markets, in addition to the inability of Washington to be able to follow Moscow in this filed, so it is not a prediction to say that the wars of Afghanistan( 2001) Iraq( 2003 ) and Lebanon (2006) were the last oil wars, because Afghanistan was a pipeline passage of the Kazakhstan’s oil to China and India, Iraq was an oil spare reserve, while Lebanon is a sea passage of oil pipeline that links Jihan the Turkish port with Haifa, coming from within Nayako project for transferring Kazakhstan oil to the Mediterranean and Europe. The war on Syria was the first gas wars on behalf of its two allies the Russian and the Iranian the major players in the global gas market, in addition to its geographical location between Turkey with its European extension and between the Gulf on one hand and its location on the Mediterranean Sea on the other hand, so this grants a strategic value to the pipelines which pass by it. Qatar and Turkey are two pivotal players in this war, because they locate at the two sides of the pipeline which links the Qatari gas resources with Europe under German finding. Now the war of Qatar is the second war of Gas wars.

The production of the global gas market is close to three hundred billion dollars annually where Qatar takes one-third of it, while it shares with Russia and Iran the markets, which the Russians serve the European part of them, while the Qataris and the Iranians serve the Asian part. After Washington tried to produce the shale gas in response to the failure of its two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan it re-overlooked it due to the difference of cost from the Gulf oil on one hand, and the decline of oil status in confronting the gas on the other hand. The US companies spent time and money to produce the share gas; it reached the stage of entering to the markets since the beginning of the year, in a capacity that is equal 60% of the productive capacity of Qatar, but it searched for a market that absorbs its production. But the Russian gas competes it in Europe and the Qatari gas in Asia. Russia and Qatar are preparing themselves to protect their shares in the markets through price cuts. So if this happens then the US companies investigating in the shale gas will go bankrupt. The agency granted to Saudi Arabia to have control on Qatar is just a part of war, but the Russian and the Iranian protection of Qatar, its independence and its role as a commercial partner in gas market is not mere a maneuver or manipulating with adversaries or tactics to invest in the crises-market between the partners of the war on Syria but a strategic movement that is related to the earlier knowledge of the meaning of the US-Qatari crisis which the Arabs were called to cover it as camouflage, as was the image of showing the war of Syria as a revolution, opposition calls, and reformist endeavors but the password is gas.

Today a summit between the US President Donald Trump and the Russian President Vladimir Putin will be held. Between a businessman who represents his partners in the US shall gas market supported by his Secretary of State Rix Tilerson whose his file is well known, and who was appointed as a General Manager of Exxon Mobil company one of the most important involved countries in the shale gas market, and a former general manager of Russian-American Mobil Oil Gas which is interested in coordinating the US-Russian interests in the oil and gas market ,  and the godfather of Gazprom company which announced its readiness to reduce its prices to 3 dollars per unit of production instead of 5,  versus 4.5 of the American gas which is proposed to Europe, he is supported by Sergey Lavrov the consultant in the Brom Gas.

The regional files are not an obstacle in front of the understanding; their roadmap is drawn since the days of John Kerry and Sergey Lavrov talks. It is not in vain that the files are related directly with the gas market from Ukraine to Syria towards Kores and the Sea of China. The password will be Qatar and the seeking for a peaceful settlement of the crisis, as the Syrian-Iraqi borders were the password in the Russian –Iranian resolving against the US real red lines, due to the linkage of the borders with the gas pipelines which pass from Iran to the Mediterranean.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

 

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حروب الغاز: سورية وقطر وقمّة بوتين ترامب

 

يوليو 7, 2017

ناصر قنديل

– يقول خبراء الطاقة إنّ القرن العشرين كان قرن النفط بامتياز، لكن القرن الحادي والعشرين هو قرن الغاز، وإنّ مكانة أميركا العالمية في القرن العشرين المقرونة بهيمنتها على أسواق النفط وشركات التنقيب والتصدير النفطية مهدّدة بالانتقال لصالح روسيا كقوة موازية تملكها في أسواق الغاز وعجز واشنطن عن مجاراة موسكو في هذا المجال، وليست مجرد تكهّنات عن المعادلة التي تقول إنّ حروب أفغانستان 2001 والعراق 2003 ولبنان 2006 كانت آخر حروب النفط. فأفغانستان ممرّ أنابيب الشركات الناقلة لنفط كازاخستان إلى الصين والهند، والعراق خزان احتياط النفط، ولبنان ممرّ بحري لأنبوب نفط يربط مرفأ جيهان التركي بحيفا آتياً من ضمن مشروع ناباكو لنفط كازاخستان إلى المتوسط وأوروبا، وأنّ الحرب على سورية هي أولى حروب الغاز، بالوكالة عن حليفيها الروسي والإيراني اللاعبين الكبيرين في سوق الغاز العالمية، وبالأصالة عن موقعها الجغرافي بين تركيا بامتدادها الأوروبي وبين الخليج من جهة، وموقعها على البحر المتوسط من جهة مقابلة، ما يمنح قيمة استراتيجية لأنابيب النفط، العابرة فيها وكانت قطر وتركيا لاعبين محوريّين في هذه الحرب كواقفين على طرفي الأنبوب الواصل من منابع الغاز القطري نحو أوروبا بتمويل ألماني، وها هي حرب قطر الحرب الثانية من حروب الغاز.

– تقارب سوق الغاز العالمية الـ 300 مليار دولار سنوياً، تقتطع قطر ثلثها، وتتقاسم مع روسيا وإيران الأسواق، التي يتولى الروس تخديم الجانب الأوروبي منها، بينما يقوم القطريون والإيرانيون بتخديم الجانب الآسيوي. وبعدما كانت واشنطن قد خاضت تجاربها لإنتاج النفط الصخري رداً على فشل حربيها في العراق وأفغانستان، وعادت فصرفت النظر عنه بسبب فوارق التكلفة عن نفط الخليج من جهة، وتراجع مكانة النفط في مواجهة الغاز من جهة مقابلة، أنفقت الشركات الأميركية وقتاً ومالاً لإنتاج الغاز الصخري، وبلغت مرحلة الاستعداد لدخول الأسواق منذ مطلع العام، بطاقة تعادل 60 في المئة من طاقة قطر الإنتاجية وتبحث عن سوق تناسب إنتاجها، حيث ينافسها الغاز الروسي في أوروبا والغاز القطري في آسيا، وحيث تستعدّ روسيا وقطر لحماية حصصهما من الأسواق بتخفيضات في الاسعار إذا تمّت ستفلس الشركات الأميركية المستثمرة في الغاز الصخري، وليست الوكالة الممنوحة للسعودية لوضع اليد على قطر إلا جزءاً من هذه الحرب، لكن الحماية الروسية والإيرانية لقطر واستقلالها وبقائها شريكاً تجارياً في سوق الغاز، ليس مجرد مناورة ولا تلاعبَ الخصوم، أو تكتيكات للاستثمار في سوق الأزمات بين شركاء الحرب على سورية، بل حركة استراتيجية تتصل باكتشاف مبكر لمغزى الأزمة القطرية الأميركية التي استدعي العرب لتغطيتها تمويهاً، كما كان الحال بتصوير حرب سورية ثورة ودعوات معارضة ومساعيَ إصلاح، وكلمة السرّ هي الغاز.

– تنعقد اليوم قمة الرئيسين الأميركي والروسي دونالد ترامب وفلاديمير بوتين. وهي في المناسبة قمة يجلس فيها على طرف الطاولة، رجل أعمال يمثل شركاءه في سوق الغاز الصخري الأميركي هو دونالد ترامب، يعاونه وزير خارجية هو ريكس تيلرسون يعرف تفاصيل ملفه عن ظهر قلب، وهو الآتي من موقع المدير العام لشركة أكسون موبيل، أحد كبار المعنيين بسوق الغاز الصخري ومدير عام سابق لشركة موبيل نفط غاز الروسية الأميركية المهتمّة بتنسيق المصالح الأميركية الروسية في سوق النفط والغاز، ويجلس قبالتهما على طرف الطاولة فلاديمير بوتين عرّاب شركة غاز بروم التي أعلنت استعدادها لتخفيض أسعارها إلى 3 دولارات للوحدة الإنتاجية، بدلاً من 5، مقابل 4 ونصف للغاز الأميركي المعروض على أوروبا، ويعاونه سيرغي لافروف مستشار الظلّ لغاز بروم.

– الملفات الإقليمية ليست عائقاً للتفاهم وخريطة طريقها مرسومة من أيام مباحثات جون كيري وسيرغي لافروف، وليس عبثاً أن تكون الملفات ترتبط مباشرة بسوق الغاز من أوكرانيا إلى سورية وصولاً إلى كوريا وبحر الصين، وكلمة السرّ ستكون قطر والسعي لتسوية سلمية للأزمة، كما كانت الحدود السورية العراقية كلمة سرّ موازية في الحسم الروسي الإيراني بوجه الخطوط الحمر الأميركية الحقيقية، لارتباط الحدود بأنابيب الغاز العابرة من إيران نحو المتوسط.

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