Source: Al Mayadeen

Michael Maalouf and Mohammad Marandi warn that a new Iran war could escalate rapidly, with US forces, “Israel”, NATO, and regional allies facing wider conflict.
“Israel” may act militarily against Iran before the November US elections and force Washington into a war it is committed to backing, Michael Maalouf, a former US government official, said, while University of Tehran professor Mohammad Marandi stated that Iran has adjusted to a wartime economy and will respond far more assertively to any new aggression.
On Al Mayadeen‘s The Great Standoff: Iran and the World, Maalouf said Trump “is being his usual hyperbolic self,” noting that US president has threatened “the annihilation, his words, of an entire civilization” while speaking of peace as close at hand.
Maalouf argued that Trump should return to the MOU he signed and is obliged to abide by it, but has chosen not to, attributing that choice to domestic pressure from the Israeli lobby within the United States, which is pushing a hardline approach.
“The usual thinking these days around here is that, well, he may do something militarily after the November elections,” Maalouf stated, noting that Trump’s own concern is more immediate.
Elections stand behind ‘Israel’ acting on its own
“Israel may do something on its own simply because they have their own elections come in October,” Maalouf said, adding that by late October, Netanyahu must show his people he is living up to what he promised in order to stay in office.
Maalouf explained that Netanyahu “May instigate something even before Donald Trump, which will force Donald Trump then to go militarily to back him up,” Maalouf continued, emphasizing that Washington is too committed to “Israel” at this point to pull out.
He further noted that many US assets are now based in “Israel” because most Gulf bases “have been eliminated or are useless.” With nothing new on the table, Trump refuses what he agreed to, and Maalouf does not see Iran backing off those points.
“I think that we’re on a collision course,” he stated, adding that it could come sooner than expected and “could be from Israel itself.”
NATO involvement would make Europe a target
Should European states get involved as NATO Secretary General Rutte suggested, Maalouf said, it “opens up them to attack.”
“If they were to attack and respond from their bases and let the United States use the bases, yeah, they are just as susceptible as a co-belligerent as the United States and Israel are themselves.”
Maalouf noted that the United States is reaching a realization that it is being pushed back by Iran’s increased military capabilities, which is why ships are being moved further out. Another carrier may bring the total to three strike groups, he said, but they will be “stuck out in the middle of nowhere,” with no ports or facilities to reload or restock.
Given Iran’s enhanced missile capabilities, Maalouf went on to explain that, “it’s very clear that they might be capable of hitting the aircraft carriers and strike groups as far away as Diego Garcia.” If so, US naval potential is very limited, he argued, since even launching aircraft would require refueling that puts those aircraft and the refuelers in jeopardy.
“I just don’t see any happy ending to this scenario as it’s now coming along,” he added.
Trump, Hegseth are offering no alternative
Maalouf said that Trump and his Secretary of War “are offering no alternatives,” while the Secretary of Treasury wants greater economic hardships, pointing to “the rise of a multipolar world order that just is going to reject working with the United States or feel pressured any longer,” because Iran has stood up to the United States over time.
This frustrates Trump’s calculations, Maalouf argued, since “he doesn’t have an easy way.”
On Europe, he said, “I don’t know what Route is talking about, frankly, when it comes to assisting the United States.”
Maalouf emphasized that Europe “never got involved when their own interests were involved and when the Strait of Hormuz was shut down,” despite depending on the strait more than the United States does. Their publics would likely be outraged at being drawn into further crises while their economies suffer from the Ukrainian war, he added.
He further clarified that involvement “also then thereby makes them targets,” since Iran “does have a missile capability to hit even targets in Europe.” Rutte, he said, “is just speaking out of, I think, just out of the corner of his mouth.”
Wartime production and shortages
Maalouf agreed that moving from a consumer economy to wartime production takes time and that the switchover has been difficult, with factories slow to reach production.
He also pointed to difficulties in obtaining components, noting that “every state in the United States has some aspect of production to contribute to that wartime production.” Delivery times, he added, are “much longer now,” while acquiring components takes longer and costs far more.
As an example, he cited limited supplies of some gasoline octanes for everyday US consumers and sky-high diesel costs that have driven many companies out of business. The disruption, he noted, “has really messed up the complete supply cycle.”
Rebuilding missiles could take years, Maalouf stated, while some may already be obsolete. The same problem applies to THAAD and Patriot systems, which “take years to rebuild, and we’re already very critically short in terms of supply,” including for European countries that have depended on US supplies.
Against that backdrop, Maalouf questioned Europe’s ability to sustain a war, saying, “I don’t see how they could conceivably go to war or fight a war,” since Europe is not sending supplies to Ukraine any longer and could not use limited stocks against Iran.
While “Pete Hegseth may brag about how completely capable the United States is,” Maalouf said, “the reality is, is that we are, the United States is very critically short on supply.”
Sophisticated systems take a very long time to produce and even longer to field, he added and restocking would also be limited because Iran can keep ships out of the area if they appear headed for use against Iran.
Direct action against Yemen will be costly, futile
Maalouf said direct military action against Yemen, which has been tried unsuccessfully before, “will just cost them the very limited stocks and supplies, stockpiles that they have of weapons.” The Yemenis, he added, “have shown a very capable way of surviving previous US, direct US attacks. And they are very mobile.”
He noted that even the Saudis are struggling against the Yemenis, while their supplies remain limited because they must come from the United States.
According to Maalouf, Yemen has demonstrated a strong ability to wage conflict against Saudi Arabia, shut down the Bab al-Mandab Strait, extend the conflict into the region, and withstand attacks from the Saudi-backed government of Yemen.
The Ansar Allah group is showing a tremendous capability and “a flexibility,” Maalouf stated, while noting that it has again targeted Aramco and pipelines, with a major impact on Saudi Arabia’s future economic capabilities that “could be destroyed entirely.”
For its part, the United States has chosen not to get involved, Maalouf said, arguing that it would rapidly run out of equipment and ammunition while also wanting to fight Iran.
He pointed to “a limitation that I think the American people have now begun to realize is reaching a very serious state,” with discussion already that the United States “has lost the conflict, the war in the Middle East, and has had to withdraw as a consequence.” Yemen, he added, “is holding its own.”
Marandi says Iran has prepared for a new round of warfare
“Fundamentally speaking, as you know as well as I, nothing has really changed,” Marandi said. Iran “has prepared itself for a new round of warfare” and “adjusted its economy to a wartime economy to make sure that it is prepared for a long war.”
As part of that preparation, the government has given the armed forces an exceptionally large budget for research and development, while also expanding underground missile and drone bases and other capabilities, Marandi explained.
Marandi pointed out that “the Iranians continue to say that we are willing to negotiate, but the negotiations must lead to the implementation of the MOU.”
That memorandum includes Article 1, which, Marandi noted, “means that the entire region must have peace.” Achieving that would require the Zionist regime to “end its occupation and end its genocide,” while other articles address Iranian stolen assets, sanctions, and other matters between Iran and the United States.
For now, however, Marandi sees little sign of a change in Washington. “We don’t see any fundamental shift in Washington, no major move,” he stated. Instead, “the expectation is that we may be moving or we will quite possibly be moving towards another round of US-Zionist aggression or US aggression against the people of Iran.”
Any such confrontation would be met with a different Iranian response, he warned: “But this time around, the Iranians are going to behave very differently. They’re going to be far more assertive in their response.”
The consequences would also extend to US coalition partners in the region. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and the Emirates, Marandi argued, “all of them will pay heavily because they are co-belligerents.”
He said those governments are “guilty of slaughtering Iranian children and Iranian citizens” and said they are already deeply vulnerable after seven months of war they helped impose on Iran. Meanwhile, Yemen’s forces and Ansar Allah “are imposing their will on the Saudi regime and its proxies,” he noted.
These governments therefore face a more precarious position if Washington escalates, in Marandi’s assessment. “It is not an ideal time for these regimes because if the United States escalates, these regimes are already much more fragile than they were before.”
He added: “They’ve always been fragile regimes, and this could ultimately lead to their collapse. So they should be very careful about the road that they tread upon.”
Iran is also continuing to upgrade its missile systems, particularly in terms of range and maneuverability. Marandi described those improvements as “obviously going to be very critical in the next war if that happens, which is quite likely.”
Aggression on Iran could happen after Israeli elections
He agreed with Michael about the chance of another aggression before October 27, “when Netanyahu holds his election,” and said it could happen afterwards as well.
Marandi asserted that Iran is prepared, explaining that Iranian missiles will strike not only US targets across the region but also bases hosting US jets or assets further away, with the US Navy a target as well. “If the war escalates, the Iranians are going to escalate,” he said, and if the United States targets Iranian infrastructure, then “all bets are off.”
Iran “will obviously destroy the infrastructure of the regimes that assist the United States,” he continued, which would collapse the global economy because those regimes would collapse. Additionally, Iran will target US naval ships, aircraft carriers, and bases hosting US forces wherever they may be if Washington chooses that road, Marandi said.
On the other hand, Marandi said that the United States may launch an all-out genocidal war, which Trump has threatened, or carry out more limited strikes. Even then, the NATO head has gloated that “5,000 flights took off from European airports to assist the United States in bombing Iran,” making the Europeans complicit, Marandi said.
Marandi cautioned that if Iran feels it necessary to strike US assets in European countries, “it will do so,” noting Iran has told Bulgaria it risks attack for hosting US planes and that those planes were ultimately withdrawn. “Iran has countless missiles. The number of Iranian missiles are enough to last for years,” Marandi stated.
Yemen also has very large numbers of missiles and drones that can last a long time, he said, so “Iran and Yemen have more than enough to continue fighting for the years to come. So the Americans should take all of this very seriously.”
Economic pressure runs both ways
Marandi said the President’s office cited personal reasons for the resignation of a ministry figure, with details expected to emerge in the coming days. He noted there were differences with others in the ministry, and the appointment had been controversial from the start, with many in the ministry welcoming the change.
“The economic situation in Iran is difficult, but the Iranians are also imposing a difficult situation on the United States and its partners,” Marandi said. Strikes on tankers violating Iran’s rules are increasing daily in the Strait of Hormuz, and the amount of oil leaving the strait has decreased significantly, he noted.
A tanker was also struck off Yemen’s coast, Marandi added, saying “the news is not good for the United States and its allies.”
Marandi noted that oil leaving the strait on small ships costs about $20 a barrel, meaning that what reaches global markets arrives at great cost even before insurance is counted.
Opinion polls not on Trump’s side: Marandi
Opinion polls in the United States have turned against Trump and his allies as the economic situation deteriorates, Marandi pointed out.
Marandi argued that “while the United States is strangling, and the United States and its partners in this war have been trying to strangle Iran, the Iranians are strangling the United States and its partners back.”
The countries most at risk of collapse, he said, are “US proxies in the region”, particularly those dependent almost entirely on oil and gas, which “will not be sustainable” if the situation continues.
With the Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait holding stocks and bonds in the United States, Marandi doubts Washington will allow them to sell those assets, meaning their economic situation will deteriorate further.
Saudi Arabia’s bombing of Sana’a International Airport was “foolish behavior” against Yemen’s people, Marandi said, adding that Riyadh “is now being badly mauled by Yemen.”
Iran’s economic situation remains difficult, but the pressure has not changed Tehran’s determination to resist. “The United States intends to make ordinary people suffer,” Marandi said, “the Iranians know that they have no option but to resist, and resist they will.”
Marandi contrasts Iranian and US military production
“One thing that we have to keep in mind is that the Iranian military industry is designed very differently from that of the United States,” Marandi said, adding that the same is true of Russia and China.
Marandi explained that in Iran, the state controls industry and may use the private sector but determines the path forward. “In other words, it is the state that controls the capital. In the United States, it’s the capital that controls the state,” including the military industry.
“US weapon systems are far too expensive and do not meet the practical needs of the armed forces because profit is prioritized,” Marandi argued.
He pointed to the resulting mismatch in US military production, saying many systems, ships, and planes “are not necessarily useful for today’s warfare or tomorrow’s warfare, but they make a lot of money for the private industries.” Iran, by contrast, has expanded its missile program to meet the needs of its armed forces.
“So Iranian missiles are much cheaper. They’re much larger in number. They are much more swiftly produced,” Marandi stated.
Despite spending infinitely more on defense, the United States “is incapable of fighting this sort of war with Iran,” he said, while also being overstretched by Ukraine and its confrontation with China. “The Iranians take advantage of that, and they’ve taught the American government, the Trump regime, a major lesson during the last seven months,” Marandi added.
Yemen victories bad news for ‘Israel’: Marandi
The victories of Ansar Allah and Yemen’s forces and government are “very, very welcome news” and “major victories of the Yemeni people” that should give hope across the region, Marandi stated.
Marandi asserted the developments are a broader setback for “Israel” and the United States. “This is very bad news for the Zionist regime. It’s very bad news for the United States, and it’s good for the people of Gaza and the people of Lebanon and, of course, for the people of Iran as well,” he continued.
In addition, Marandi recalled that the capabilities of Yemen and the resistance in Iraq are enormous, while many of Iran’s own capabilities “have been left untouched.”
The capabilities of US partners such as the Saudi regime are being degraded daily, Marandi noted, while pressure from Iran in the Strait of Hormuz is adding to the strain on other US proxies.
“None of this bodes well for the United States in the weeks and months ahead,” he concluded. “And, of course, anything that weakens the United States weakens the Israeli regime too.”
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Filed under: "Israel", The Islamic Republic of Iran, US, US Foreign Policy | Tagged: Iraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Elections, Michael Maalouf, Professor Mohammad Marandi, US President Donald Trump, US-Israeli aggression on Iran | Leave a comment »







































































