The Axis of Asymmetry takes on the ‘rules-based order’

FEB 23, 2024

Photo Credit: The Cradle

World War III is here, playing out asymmetrically in military, financial, and institutional battlefields, and the fight is an existential one. The western Hegemon, in truth, is at war against international law, and only ‘kinetic military action’ can bring it to heel.

Pepe Escobar

The Axis of Asymmetry is in full swing. These are the state and non-state actors employing asymmetrical moves on the global chessboard to sideline the US-led western rules-based order. And its vanguard is the Yemeni resistance movement Ansarallah. 

Ansarallah is absolutely relentless. They have downeda $30 million MQ-9 Reaper drone with just a $10k indigenous missile.

They are the first in the Global South ever to use anti-ship ballistic missiles against Israel-bound and/or -protecting commercial and US Navy ships. 

For all practical purposes, Ansarallah is at war with no less than the US Navy.

Ansarallah has captured one of the US Navy’s ultra-sophisticated autonomous underwater vehicles (AUV), the $1.3 million Remus 600, a torpedo-shaped underwater drone able to carry a massive payload of sensors. 

Next stop: reverse engineering in Iran? The Global South eagerly awaits, ready to pay in currencies bypassing the US dollar. 

All of the above – a maritime 21st-century remix of the Ho Chi Minh trail during the Vietnam War – spells out that the Hegemon may not even qualify as a paper tiger, but rather as a paper leech.

Lula tells it as the Global South sees it 

Into the Big Picture – linked to the relentless ongoing genocide perpetrated by Israel in Gaza – steps a true leader of the Global South, Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. 

Lula spoke in the name of Brazil, Latin America, Africa, BRICS 10, and the overwhelming majority of the Global South when he cut to the chase and defined the Gaza tragedy for what it is: a genocide. No wonder the Zionist tentacles across the Global North – plus its Global South vassals – went bonkers. 

The genocidals in Tel Aviv declared Lula as persona non grata in Israel. Yet Lula did not assassinate 29,000+ Palestinians – the overwhelming majority of whom were women and children.

History will be unforgiving: it’s the genocidals that will eventually be judged as personae non grata to all of humanity.

What Lula said represented BRICS 10 in action: this was obviously cleared before with Moscow, Beijing, Tehran, and, of course, the African Union. Lula spoke in Addis Ababa, and Ethiopia is now a BRICS 10 member.

The Brazilian president was extremely smart in timing his Gaza fact-check to be on the table during the G20 meeting of Foreign Ministers in Rio. Way beyond BRICS 10, what’s happening in Gaza is a consensus among the non-Western G20 partners – who are actually a majority. No one, though, should expect any serious follow-up inside a divided G20. The heart of the matter remains in the facts on the ground. 

Yemen’s fight for “our people” in Gaza is a matter of humanistic, moral, and religious solidarity – these are foundational tenets of the rising eastern “civilizational” powers, both domestically and in international affairs. This convergence of principles has now created a direct link – extrapolating to the moral and spiritual spheres – between the Axis of Resistance in West Asia and the Slavic Axis of Resistance in Donbass. 

Extreme attention should be paid to the timescale. The Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) forces and Russia have spent two hard-fought years in Novorossiya just to arrive at the stage where it becomes clear – based on the battlefield and cumulative facts on the ground – that “negotiations” mean only the terms of Kiev’s surrender.

In contrast, the job of the Axis of Resistance in West Asia has not even started. It’s fair to argue that its strength and full sovereign involvement have not been deployed yet (think Hezbollah and Iran). 

Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, with his proverbial subtlety, has hinted there’s, in fact, nothing to negotiate on Palestine. And if there would be a return to any borders, these would be the 1948 borders. The Axis of Resistance understands that the whole Zionist Project is unlawful and immoral. But the question remains how to throw it, in practice, into the dustbin of History?

Possible – avowedly optimistic – scenarios ahead would include Hezbollah taking possession of the Galilee as a step toward the eventual retaking of the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Yet the fact remains that even a united Palestine does not have the military capability to reconquer stolen Palestinian lands. 

So the questions posed by the overwhelming majority of the Global South that stands with Lula may be: Who else, apart from Ansarallah, Hezbollah, Hashd al-Shaabi, will join the Axis of Asymmetry in the fight for Palestine? Who would be willing to come to the Holy Land and die? (After all, in Donbass, it’s only Russians and Russophones who are dying for historically Russian lands)

And that brings us to the way towards the endgame: only a West Asian Special Military Operation (SMO), to the bitter end, will settle the Palestinian tragedy. A translation of what happens across the Slavic Axis of Resistance: “Those who refuse to negotiate with Lavrov, deal with Shoigu.”

The menu, the table, and the guests

That out-of-his-depth closet neocon, Secretary of State Tony Blinken, let the cat out of the bag when he actually defined his much cherished “rules-based international order”: “If you’re not on the table, you are on the menu.”

Following his own hegemonic logic, it’s clear that Russia and the US/NATO are on the table while Ukraine is on the menu. What about the Red Sea? The Houthis defending Palestine against US–UK–Israel are clearly on the table, while Western vassals supporting Israel in a maritime way are clearly on the menu. 

And that’s the problem: the Hegemon – or, in Chinese scholarly terminology, “the crusaders” – have lost the power to place the name cards on the table. The main reason for this authority collapse is the build-up of serious international meetings sponsored by the Russia–China strategic partnership during the past two years since the start of the SMO. It’s all about sequential planning, with long-term targets clearly outlined. 

Only civilizational states can do that – not plutocratic neoliberal casinos.   

Negotiating with the Hegemon is impossible because the Hegemon itself prevents negotiations (see the serial blocking of ceasefire resolutions at the UN). Additionally, the Hegemon excels in instrumentalizing its client elites across the Global South via threats or kompromat: see the hysterical reaction of Brazilian mainstream media to Lula’s verdict on Gaza. 

What Russia is showing the Global South, two years after the start of the SMO, is that the only path to teach a lesson to the Hegemon has to be kinetic, or “military-technical.”

The problem is no nation-state can compare to nuclear/hypersonic/military superpower Russia, in which 7.5 percent of the government’s budget is dedicated to military production. Russia is and will remain on a permanent war footing until Hegemon’s elites come to their senses – and that may never happen.

Meanwhile, West Asia’s Axis of Resistance is watching and learning, day after day. It’s always crucial to keep in mind that for all the resistance movements across the Global South – and that also includes, for instance, West Africans against French neo-colonialism – the geopolitical fault lines could not be starker.

It’s a matter of the collective West versus Islam; the collective West versus Russia; and sooner rather than later, a substantial part of the West, even reluctantly, versus China.

The fact is we are already immersed in a World War that is both existential and civilizational. As we stand at the crossroads, there is a bifurcation: either escalation towards overt “kinetic military action,” or a multiplication of Hybrid Wars across several latitudes. 

So it’s up to the Axis of Asymmetry, cool, calm, and collected, to forge the underground corridors, passages, and trails capable of undermining and subverting the US-led, unipolar, rules-based international order. 

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of The Cradle.

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THE THREAT OF ALL OUT WAR: YEMEN NEARS THE TIPPING POINT AS US AIRSTRIKES INTENSIFY

FEBRUARY 16TH, 2024

Source

Ahmed AbdulKareem is a Yemeni journalist based in Sana’a. He covers the war in Yemen for MintPress News as well as local Yemeni media.

Ahmed AbdulKareem

In the courtyard of Yemen’s famous Al Shaeb Mosque, guards of honor stood at attention accompanied by the melody of military music as the funeral ceremony of Yemeni marines killed in the latest round of U.S. and UK strikes commenced. The mourners, many of whom traveled from the countryside to attend, walked alongside a long convoy carrying the bodies of 17 victims as it made its way through the streets of Sana’a. Mourners held aloft photos of the deceased or thrust their rifles into the air while chanting slogans condemning the United States. Several banners peppered the crowd, emblazoned with the label given to those who gave their lives in what many view as a struggle in defense of Palestine: “Martyrs on the road to al-Quds (Jerusalem).”

Seventeen pickup trucks ensconced in green drapes bore the bodies. They were escorted by family members alongside thousands of mourners leaving Sana’a for the hometowns of the victims who hailed from various regions of Yemen. The scene unfolded last Sunday when thousands of angry Yemenis took to the streets of Sana’a and other cities to hold a funeral for those killed by the attacks. “Retribution against American soldiers… We will not abandon our revenge,” some mourners proclaimed.

In Bani Matar, 70 kilometers west of Sanaa towards the Hodeida Road, the mothers of Ziad Ajlan and Hashem Al-Sawari watched the convoy from a rooftop as it carried along the bodies of their sons. Ziad and Hashem were not involved in the fighting; they were among a number of civilians killed in attacks launched by the U.S. Navy on the Yemeni mainland one week ago. My son was martyred on the road to al-Quds,” Ziad’s mother said proudly. “We will not be broken, and we will not abandon Gaza.”

U.S. and British officials maintain that their attacks target “Houthi” military positions – ammunition stores and missile launch sites, but the reality of the ground tells a different story. Yemeni civilians say they are blind and indiscriminate and often leave civilians maimed or killed. Assuming the U.S. and UK are acting in good faith, it is clear that their intelligence information is lacking. A truck belonging to a farmer carrying plastic pipes was targeted in an airstrike outside the city of Saada last week. It is believed that the pipes were mistaken for missiles.

This story has repeated itself ad nauseam throughout Yemen since the end of December when the multinational “Operation Prosperity Guardian” (OIR) was launched in a thus-far failed attempt to protect ships linked with Israel from Ansar Allah. This week alone, as many as 40 strikes were launched by the U.S. and the UK, most targeting the coastal city of Hodeida.

Coffins of Asnar Allah fighters killed in the U.S.-led strikes on Yemen are transported during a mass funeral in Sanaa, Yemen, Feb. 10, 2024. Osamah Abdulrahman | AP

THE FOG OF WAR

The danger of Washington’s attacks on Yemen’s mainland lies not only in exposing civilians to danger but has the potential to spark retaliatory measures taken by Ansar Allah should pressure from the public and family members of victims continue to mount.

On December 29, when U.S. forces killed 10 Yemeni sailors aboard three ships in the Red Sea, Ansar Allah refrained from retaliating. But when American and British bombs peppered mainland Yemen the next month, striking major cities with over 100 precision-guided missiles, leaving civilians dead and maimed, Ansar Allah reacted, carrying out a barrage of retaliatory attacks.

Some Yemeni officials have even hinted that two U.S. Navy Seals that the U.S. government claims drowned while boarding a boat smuggling weapons into Yemen were actually killed in combat. It is not known whether the soldiers were killed in attacks by Ansar Allah ballistic missiles or drones or during a failed commando operation as the U.S. claims, but what is clear is that the U.S. is covering its losses and information about the deaths of the Seals has been highly politicized.

In fact, many of the details surrounding hostilities between the U.S. and Ansar Allah have been cast in a heavy fog of war, and it will likely be years before the truth is revealed. What is certain is that Ansar Allah has caused direct material damage to U.S. military vessels, targeting numerous times with advanced missiles and drones launched. In the wake of every such attack, a statement was issued, reaffirming Ansar Allah’s right to take revenge for those killed in American and British bombing raids.

On January 31, the Ansar Allah announced that the American destroyer, the USS Gravely, was hit by several anti-ship missiles. In the wake of the attack, US Central Command (CENTCOM)  announced that the Gravely had shot down an advanced anti-ship cruise missile. Later, reports emerged that the destroyer in question and other Western military assets in the area had failed to intercept the missile until it got within “4 seconds from hitting the U.S. warship.”

On January 25, Ansar Allah said that it had clashed with American destroyers in the Gulf of Aden and Bab al-Mandab for two hours. One U.S. Navy vessel was directly hit after a failed interception attempt, according to Ansar Allah, who have been improving their capabilities since 2014, after a failed Saudi-led and U.S.-backed bombing campaign left the country in tatters.

This undated photograph released by CENTCOM shows the vessel that was being boarded by US Navy Seals near Yemen in a raid that saw two commandos go missing

MANUFACTURING CONSENT

Although President Joe Biden has repeatedly claimed that the United States does not seek to expand the war in the Middle East, the actions of the US military are undoubtedly making the situation in the Red Sea more tense. In the wake of American airstrikes targeting Hodeida on Thursday – for the ninth time that day alone, Ansar Allah Armed Forces spokesperson Brigadier Yahya Saree revealed that the group would take “further measures” within its legitimate right to self-defense in response to the repeated U.S.-UK aggression. In the same statement, Saree announced that the Barbados-flagged British Bulk Carrier ship, the LYCAVITOS, was targeted by naval missiles while sailing in the Gulf of Aden, raising questions about the actual deterrence factor of America’s escalatory approach.

Prior to that, the leader of Ansar Allah, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, the leader of the revolution that the U.S.-backed Yemeni government in 2014, confirmed that any escalation on Ansar Allah’s part would be against Israel and to confront American and British aggression and would not target the interests of ordinary Westerners. The comment came in response to claims circulated in the media that Ansar Allah could sabotage a network of underwater internet cables that run through the Red Sea. “We do not plan to target submarine cables, and we have no intention of doing so, and what is reported in the media is a lie aimed at distorting our humanitarian position on the war on Gaza,” he said. Many Western media outlets promoted the claim, raising fears over the safety of infrastructure critical to the functioning of the Western Internet and the transmission of financial data. Yemen is strategically located, as internet lines connecting entire continents pass near it.

Airstrikes and claims that internet access may be cut off may be the tip of the escalatory iceberg, according to the government of Sana’a. The Minister of Information, Daifallah al-Shami, held a press conference on Thursday announcing that they have information that the UAE is seeking to recruit agents from multiple foreign nationalities in cooperation with Al-Qaeda and ISIS to target ships in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea in order to confuse and distort operations carried out by Ansar Allah in support of Gaza. According to al-Shami, the move is supported by the U.S.

“WE WILL NOT ABANDON GAZA”

Contrary to what is being promoted in much of the Western media, which has taken the line that Ansar Allah’s Red Sea blockade has nothing to do with the ongoing genocide in Gaza, a review of the targets of Ansar Allah’s attacks makes their motivations clear. On October 19, Ansar Allah fired drones and missiles at Israel’s southern Eliat Port. In mid-November, the naval forces seized an Israeli ship headed towards occupied Palestine. Shortly after, Ansar Allah publically announced that the Israeli-linked ship would not be allowed to pass through the Baba al-Mandab Strait. Later, they announced that the ban on shipping would extend to all vessels attempting to reach Eliat Port. All of these measures were in support of a single, repeatedly declared goal, which was to pressure Israel to stop its war on Gaza and allow food and water to enter the besieged strip.

With visible sadness and anger, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi enumerated in a televised speech on Tuesday the reasons that motivate Yemen to continue operations to prevent international navigation supporting Israel in the Red Sea – the continued mass killing of the Gazans, renewed American support for Israel, including with lethal weapons and the use of internationally banned weapons against civilians in Gaza, including white phosphorus.

Al-Houthi said that “the Yemeni military’s retaliatory strikes in the Red Sea had proven to be effective as it led to the almost complete closure of the port of Umm al-Rashrash (the name of Eliat before Israel annexed it), and all food supply chains to Israel that were passing through the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab stopped by 70%, and prices in the Israeli market rose by 30-50% after ships were forced to divert course through the Cape of Good Hope.” Israel, he noted, was one of the largest beneficiaries of maritime trade, with imports in 2022 reaching to $133 billion “thanks to the Red Sea.”

Responding to those who question the feasibility of Ansar Allah’s position, Al-Houthi said that “Yemeni operations have caused repercussions for ship insurance,” noting that insurers are now refusing to insure ships heading towards the ports of occupied Palestine. “Not only that,” he added, “but insurance companies require Israeli and American ships to pay additional amounts of up to 50%.”

“Our operations at sea led to a decline in Israel’s total imports of products by 25% during the past months,” Al-Houthi said, “The Israeli Ministry of Economy and Industry admitted that the Red Sea operations harmed its trade relations with 14 countries.”

Amid threats of escalation and even whispers of a Western-led ground invasion of Yemen, Ansar Allah has reiterated its commitment to its mission. Mobilization, military training, demonstrations, and other activities will be continued as long as the aggression against Gaza continues, it has reaffirmed, saying that operations at sea will continue until Israel “allows food and medical supplies and the delivery of basic needs into Gaza.” “The U.S. and UK will not achieve their goals through aggression against our country, and the only solution is to stop the aggression and deliver food and medicine to the people of Gaza,” Al-Houthi vowed.

How Yemen changed everything

DEC 28, 2023

In a single move, Yemen’s Ansarallah has checkmated the west and its rules-based order.

Photo Credit: The Cradle

Pepe Escobar

Whether invented in northern India, eastern China or Central Asia – from Persia to Turkestan – chess is an Asian game. In chess, there always comes a time when a simple pawn is able to upset the whole chessboard, usually via a move in the back rank whose effect simply cannot be calculated. 

Yes, a pawn can impose a seismic checkmate. That’s where we are, geopolitically, right now. 

The cascading effects of a single move on the chessboard – Yemen’s Ansarallah stunning and carefully targeted blockade of the Red Sea – reach way beyond global shipping, supply chains, and The War of Economic Corridors. Not to mention the reduction of the much lauded US Navy force projection to irrelevancy.

Yemen’s resistance movement, Ansarallah, has made it very clear that any Israel-affiliated or Israel-destined vessel will be intercepted. While the west bristles at this, and imagines itself a target, the rest of the world fully understands that all other shipping is free to pass. Russian tankers – as well as Chinese, Iranian, and Global South ships – continue to move undisturbed across the Bab al-Mandeb (narrowest point: 33 km) and the Red Sea. 

Only the Hegemon is disturbed by this challenge to its ‘rules-based order.’ It is outraged that western vessels delivering energy or goods to law-breaking Israel can be impeded, and that the supply chain has been severed and plunged into deep crisis. The pinpointed target is the Israeli economy, which is already bleeding heavily. A single Yemeni move proves to be more efficient than a torrent of imperial sanctions. 

It is the tantalizing possibility of this single move turning into a paradigm shift – with no return – that is adding to the Hegemon’s apoplexy. Especially because imperial humiliation is deeply embedded in the paradigm shift. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin, on the record, is now sending an unmistakeable message: Forget the Suez Canal. The way to go is the Northern Sea Route – which the Chinese, in the framework of the Russia-China strategic partnership, call the Arctic Silk Road.
 

Map of North-East and North-West Passage shipping routes

For the dumbfounded Europeans, the Russians have detailed three options: First, sail 15,000 miles around the Cap of Good Hope. Second, use Russia’s cheaper and faster Northern Sea Route. Third, send the cargo via Russian Railways. 

Rosatom, which oversees the Northern Sea Route, has emphasized that non-ice-class ships are now able to sail throughout summer and autumn, and year-round navigation will soon be possible with the help of a fleet of nuclear icebreakers. 

All that as direct consequences of the single Yemeni move. What next? Yemen entering BRICS+ at the summit in Kazan in late 2024, under the Russian presidency?

The new architecture will be framed in West Asia 

The US-led Armada put together for Operation Genocide Protection, which collapsed even before birth, may have been set up to “warn Iran,” apart from giving Ansarallah a scare. Just as the Houthis, Tehran is hardly intimidated because, as West Asia analyst ace Alastair Crooke succinctly put it: “Sykes-Picot is dead.” 

This is a quantum shift on the chessboard. It means West Asian powers will frame the new regional architecture from now on, not US Navy “projection.” 

That carries an ineffable corollary: those eleven US aircraft carrier task forces, for all practical purposes, are essentially worthless.   

Everyone across West Asia is well aware that Ansarallah’s missiles are capable of hitting Saudi and Emirati oil fields, and knocking them out of commission. So it is little wonder that Riyadh and Abu Dhabi would never accept becoming part of a US-led maritime force to challenge the Yemeni resistance.   

Add to it the role of underwater drones now in the possession of Russia and Iran. Think of fifty of these aimed at a US aircraft carrier: it has no defense. While the Americans still have very advanced submarines, they cannot keep the Bab al-Mandeb and Red Sea open to western operators. 

On the energy front, Moscow and Tehran don’t even need to think – at least not yet – about using the “nuclear” option or cutting off potentially at least 25 percent, and up, of the world oil supply. As one Persian Gulf analyst succinctly describes it, “that would irretrievably implode the international financial system.”

For those still determined to support the genocide in Gaza there have been warnings. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has mentioned it explicitly. Tehran has already called for a total oil and gas embargo against nations that support Israel. 

A total naval blockade of Israel, meticulously engineered, remains a distinct possibility. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Hossein Salami said Israel may “soon face the closure of the Mediterranean Sea, the Strait of Gibraltar, and other waterways.”

Keep in mind we’re not yet even talking about a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz; we’re still on Red Sea/Bab al-Mandeb. 

Because if the Straussian neo-cons in the Beltway get really unhinged by the paradigm shift and act in desperation to “teach a lesson” to Iran, a chokepoint Hormuz-Bab al-Mandeb combo blockade might skyrocket the price of oil to at least $500 a barrel, triggering the implosion of the $618 trillion derivatives market and crashing the entire international banking system. 

The paper tiger is in a jam 

Mao Zedong was right after all: the US may be in fact a paper tiger. Putin, though, is way more careful, cold, and calculating. With this Russian president, it’s all about an asymmetric response, exactly when no one is expecting it.

That brings us to the prime working hypothesis perhaps capable of explaining the shadow play masking the single Ansarallah move on the chessboard.       

When Pulitzer-winning investigative journalist Sy (Seymour) Hersh proved how Team Biden blew up the Nord Stream pipelines, there was no Russian response to what was, in effect, an act of terrorism against Gazprom, against Germany, against the EU, and against a bunch of European companies. Yet Yemen, now, with a simple blockade, turns global shipping upside down. 

So what is more vulnerable? The physical networks of global energy supply (Pipelineistan) or the Thalassocracy, states that derive their power from naval supremacy? 

Russia privileges Pipelineistan: see, for instance, the Nord Streams and Power of Siberia 1 and 2. But the US, the Hegemon, always relied on its thalassocratic power, heir to “Britannia rules the waves.” 

Well, not anymore. And, surprisingly, getting there did not even entail the “nuclear” option, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which Washington games and scaremongers like crazy.

Of course we won’t have a smoking gun. But it’s a fascinating proposition that the single Yemeni move may have been coordinated at the highest level between three BRICS members – Russia, China, and Iran, the neocon new “axis of evil” – plus other two BRICS+, energy powerhouses Saudi Arabia and the UAE. As in, “if you do it, we’ve got your back”. 

None of that, of course, detracts from Yemeni purity: their defense of Palestine is a sacred duty. 

Western imperialism and then turbo-capitalism have always been obsessed with gobbling up Yemen, a process that Isa Blumi, in his splendid book Destroying Yemen, described as “necessarily stripping Yemenis of their historic role as the economic, cultural, spiritual, and political engine for much of the Indian Ocean world.” 

Yemen, though, is unconquerable and, true to a local proverb, “deadly” (Yemen Fataakah). As part of the Axis of Resistance, Yemen’s Ansarallah is now a key actor in a complex Eurasia-wide drama that redefines Heartland connectivity; and alongside China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the India-Iran-Russia-led International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC), and Russia’s new Northern Sea Route, also includes control over strategic chokepoints around the Mediterranean Seas and the Arabian peninsula. 

This is another trade connectivity paradigm entirely, smashing to bits western colonial and neocolonial control of Afro-Eurasia. So yes, BRICS+ supports Yemen, who with a single move has presented Pax Americana with The Mother of All Geopolitical Jams.         

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of The Cradle.

What’s behind the US military surge in West Asia?

AUG 16, 2023

Photo Credit: The Cradle

ISIS attacks in Syria and Iraq have declined by 68 percent and 80 percent respectively, per the US military’s own admission. So why is Washington sending, with no legal basis, an additional 6,000 troops into a region that doesn’t want them there?

Robert Inlakesh

In a significant move that sent worrying ripples across West Asia, the US military has discreetly dispatched over 6,000 troops to the region, igniting tensions and triggering debates on regional stability. While the surge of forces into the Red Sea to counter Iran’s actions in the Persian Gulf has garnered attention, the deployment of a substantial US military presence into Iraq and Syria has largely gone under the radar.

On 7 August, a formidable contingent of over 3,000 US sailors and marines entered the Red Sea aboard two imposing warships. This maneuver has been widely interpreted as a response by the US Navy to the alleged seizure of approximately 20 internationally-flagged ships by Iran in the Persian Gulf over the past couple of years.

While the Islamic Republic claims to have seized the tankers under legitimate security grounds and accuses the US of breeding further instability with its troop deployment. Washington maintains that the move will work “to deter destabilizing activity and de-escalate regional tension.”

Weeks before, with much less fanfare, the US military also readied some 2,500 light-infantry troops for deployment to Iraq and Syria in mid-July. According to a report from a local New York media outlet, these soldiers, hailing from the 10th Mountain Division’s 2nd Brigade Combat Team, embarked on their mission after departing from the Fort Drum military base. Their mission, spanning nine months, is to actively engage in Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR), the ongoing US-led anti-ISIS operation across both Iraq and Syria.

Uncertain troop surge 

US President Joe Biden’s administration has said that the US-led combat mission inside Iraq was supposed to have officially ended in December of 2021. In July of that same year, Baghdad and Washington agreed to a plan under which all US combat forces were to be withdrawn from the country by the end of the year. Despite this, combat units continue to be rotated into the country.

Officially, the stated number of US service members currently operating in Iraq is 2,500; there is an unknown number of mercenaries who work for private military contractors. Although it is unclear what proportion of the 2,500 were headed to Iraq and Syria respectively, there is a clear increase in troop presence in both West Asian states. 

The 40th Infantry Division of California’s National Guard also deployed 500 soldiers to Iraq and Syria earlier this year. As recently as 8 August, another batch of soldiers from the 1889th Regional Support group had departed the US, with further deployments likely.

There have been allegations, initially surfacing in the Turkish newspaper Yeni Shafak, that the US will be deploying some 2,500 troops into north-eastern Syria in order to bolster the position of their local partners, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). 

As of yet, there has been no confirmation of such a large troop surge, which would constitute a colossal leap from the publicly-stated 900 US troops acknowledged to be illegally occupying Syrian territory. 

The Iran-Russia-Syria axis 

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War recently published a report on an alleged Iranian-Russian-Syrian plan to force the US out of the country altogether, claiming that “this campaign poses a serious risk to US forces in Syria and US interests in the Middle East (West Asia).” 

It is public knowledge that the US bolstered its forces inside Syria back in March, when it dispatched a squadron of A-10 attack aircraft following a series of lethal strikes against their forces. Washington has complained several times this year about the conduct of Russian fighter pilots in Syrian airspace, while doubling down on its legally groundless claim that US forces have the right to self-defense in sovereign states thousands of miles away. Despite these violations of international law, the US administration has made clear it has no intention of withdrawing from West Asia.

Underpinning the US’s occupation of a significant portion of Syrian territory and its troop presence in Iraq is OIR. Framed within the legal framework of the 1991 and 2002 Authorizations for Use of Military Force (AUMF), which previously served as the basis for the 2003 invasion of Iraq, OIR ostensibly targets ISIS. 

However, Baghdad has repeatedly called for the withdrawal of US forces, most recently on 15 August, with Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani stating that Iraq “no longer needs the presence of foreign combat forces on its soil.”

The 2023 justification for OIR also cites an Iraqi government request dating back to 2014 when ISIS was cutting a swathe through the country’s north. However, this reasoning sidesteps the Iraqi parliament’s 2020 vote demanding full US troop withdrawal, coupled with widespread street protests echoing the same call. 

Beyond ISIS: OIR’s broader strategy

Drawing from data shared by the Combined Joint Task Force (CJTF) Commander Major-General Matthew McFarlane, there has been a remarkable decline in ISIS attacks. According to McFarlane, between January and April, there had been “a record of a 68 percent reduction in [ISIS] attacks when compared to the same period last year” inside Syria. 

In Iraq, there has been an 80 percent decrease in ISIS attacks this year when compared with 2022. As the number of ISIS militant attacks are decreasing exponentially, it would make no sense for the US to increase its troop presence inside Iraq and Syria, unless it was for motives beyond the scope of OIR. 

If the recent naval deployment to the Red Sea was openly retaliation for Iran’s naval activities in the Persian Gulf, then it would make sense that perceived Iranian threats to US interests in Iraq and Syria could merit a similar troop deployment increase. 

Earlier this year, the current Pentagon Chief, Lloyd Austin, made a surprise visit to Baghdad, where he declared that US forces will remain inside Iraq and indicated that this decision is in line with the ongoing fight against ISIS. 

Senior officials within the Biden administration, including Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (DASD) for the Middle East Dana Stroul, have explicitly discussed the need to counter Tehran’s influence in the region. This discourse intertwines with the broader context of OIR, raising suspicions that the operation serves as both a legal pretext and a veiled strategy to contest Iranian and Russian presence in the region. 

Exploiting issues in the Gulf 

To provide context, it is essential to revisit some recent events in northeastern Syria. Following clashes between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), its allies, and US forces, the USS George H.W. Bush, an American aircraft carrier, was repositioned closer to Syria. 

This move, explained Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh, was due to “increased attacks from [Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)]-affiliated groups targeting our service members across Syria.” 

In the Persian Gulf, tensions between Iran and the UAE over the ownership of the Abu Musa islands have provided an opportunity for the US to leverage divisions among neighboring states. While the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Russia advocate for dialogue, Iran maintains its stance on the islands’ non-negotiability. The IRGC’s naval maneuvers have further accentuated the potential for escalating tensions, as the US seeks to exploit discord between Iran and its neighbors.

On the Syrian front, there have also been indications that the al-Qaeda linked militant group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which controls much of the Idlib province, may have signed a deal to unite themselves with the US-backed SDF that helps occupy north-eastern Syria. 

According to Syrian opposition media outlet Syria TV, the US was supportive of the idea of an HTS-SDF union. If this is true, it could indicate that Washington is seeking to unite the three fronts that oppose the government in Damascus: the al-Tanf mercenaries, the SDF in north-eastern Syria, and HTS in Idlib.

US agenda in West Asia 

There are now grounds for questioning the US claim that it is only operating 900 troops in Syria and 2,500 inside Iraq, especially with its new troop deployments. Moreover, by Washington’s own admission, the fight against ISIS has significantly decreased in scope. 

This then begs the question, what is the legality of the recent US troop surge into West Asia, which is increasingly shaping up to be a force to confront Iran and Russia? If Washington’s real target is Tehran and Moscow, does the US government have any legal justification for its stationing of military personnel inside Iraq and Syria, placing US troops at risk over conflicts that have no congressional or popular domestic approval? 

In order to counter an emerging multipolar order and its impact on West Asia, it appears that Washington’s agenda is now set on doubling down on its pre-existing regional objectives. With the advent of the Chinese-brokered rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the heat has been on the US government to accomplish what the Biden administration views as a crowning achievement in the region: Israeli-Saudi normalization. 

Short of this, to maintain the dominance of the collective west over the region, the immediate hurdle is overcoming the influences of Iran and Russia. This is why the occupation of roughly a third of Syrian territory by the US and its proxies, along with the imposition of deadly sanctions on Damascus, has become crucial in undermining the strength of its adversaries. 

By keeping Syria divided and weakening the government of President Bashar al-Assad, the US is able to prevent the restoration of the Syrian state that now falls firmly under the Russian and Iranian spheres of influence. 

Moreover, the recent tentative agreement between Washington and Tehran, which aimed to unlock billions in frozen Iranian assets in exchange for the release of five American prisoners, holds the potential to pave a path toward the revival of discussions to reinstate the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). 

While the US’s ability to secure a renewed nuclear deal with the Islamic Republic could hypothetically create a conducive environment for Saudi-Israeli normalization, the looming specter of a potential Republican victory in the 2024 US elections may cast uncertainty over this prospect.

The use of sanctions, along with hostile intelligence measures and the deployment of troops closer to the Persian Gulf, all signal a US intent to prevent a further diminishment of their role in the region. In the wake of the Ukraine conflict, the White House’s capacity to exert its once-dominant presence in West Asia has encountered challenges, potentially prompting the current assertive stance by the US. 

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of The Cradle.

How (and Why) Neocons Miscalculated (Andrei Martyanov)

December 26, 2022

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Mobilization and Real Economy

July 20, 2022

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US navy claims warships in Strait of Hormuz ‘harassed’ by IRGC speedboats

Over the past year, the IRGC has stepped up efforts to stop the theft of Iranian oil in the high seas, including attempts by the US navy

June 21 2022

(Photo credit: Reuters)

ByNews Desk

A US navy official has claimed that three speedboats belonging to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had a near-miss encounter on 20 June with two US warships in the Persian Gulf.

The IRGC vessels allegedly came within 45 meters of the two US warships at “dangerously high speed.”

“[The Iranian Navy] did not meet the international standards of professional or safe maritime behavior, increasing the risk of miscalculation and collision,” said the spokesman for US Central Command (CENTCOM), Colonel Joseph Buccino.

Buccino added that the USS Sirocco, a Cyclone-class patrol ship, and the USNS Choctaw County, a fast transport vessel, were in “routine transit” through international waters in the Persian Gulf.

According to an unnamed US official, the IRGC vessels diverted course only after the Sirocco issued an audible warning signal and fired a flare.

Iranian officials have not yet responded to the US allegations.

“CENTCOM forces will continue to fly, sail and operate anywhere in the area of responsibility international law allows while promoting regional stability,” Buccino went on to add.

The alleged confrontation comes at a time when tensions are rising between Iran and the west over Washington’s refusal to provide guarantees to revive the 2015 nuclear deal.

Over the past year, the IRGC navy has led efforts to stop the smuggling of Iranian oil by foreign actors, including the US.

Last month, Washington illegally seized a shipment of Iranian oil in Greek waters, before a court in Athens ruled against what Tehran described as “maritime piracy.”

Last year, the IRGC released footage of a daring operation to stop the US navy from stealing oil from an Iranian tanker in the Sea of Oman.

The operation was launched after US forces tried to redirect the tanker to an unspecified location in order to steal the cargo. However, the IRGC navy took control of the tanker by boarding it with helicopters, and were able to direct it toward Iranian territorial waters.

In response, the US sent out helicopters and warships hoping to redirect the ship, even blocking its path, but their attempts were unsuccessful.

Andrei Martyanov: Adam Smith With Harpoons

June 17, 2022

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Andrei Martyanov: Admiral Rickover or how American education was killed.

June 15, 2022

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For the weekend: May 9th, The Real Story Behind D-Day (and current rumors)

May 06, 2022

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War Realities, Top Gun Romantics, Mercenaries, the reality of a wall socket.

May 03, 2022

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Ansarullah: US Prolonging Aggression, Siege on Yemen

April 16, 2022

By Staff, Agencies 

The spokesperson for Yemen’s Ansarullah movement, Mohammed Abdul Salam, confirmed that “The United States seeks to prolong the state of brutal siege and aggression against the impoverished Arab country.”

He was referring to the US latest move in the Red Sea that contravenes the terms of the recent truce agreement.

Earlier this week, the US Navy announced plans to establish a new multinational task force to patrol the Red Sea — a vital shipping lane for both cargo and the global energy supplies — after a series of attacks it blamed on the Yemeni resistance movement.

Washington claimed that the revolutionary movement had launched explosive-laden drone boats and mines into the waters of the strategic sea, which runs from Egypt’s Suez Canal in the north, down through the narrow Bab Al-Mandeb Strait in the south that separates Africa from the Arabian Peninsula.

The US-led Combined Maritime Forces [CMF] Task Force 153 will patrol the waterway between Egypt and Saudi Arabia, through the Bab Al-Mandeb Strait to the waters off the Yemen-Oman border.

“The American move in the Red Sea in light of a humanitarian and military truce in Yemen contradicts Washington’s claim that it supports the truce, rather it only seeks to perpetuate the state of aggression and siege on Yemen,” Abdul Salam tweeted.

The ceasefire agreement between the Saudi Arabia-led aggression and Yemen’s Ansarullah resistance was mediated by the United Nations on April 2.

Tu-22M3 and MiG-31 K with Dagger missiles were transferred to Syria

February 15, 2022

Machine translation from this source:

Tu-22M3 and MiG-31 K with Dagger missiles were transferred to Syria to participate in exercises of the Russian Navy

The Russian Defense Ministry reported that the crews of the VKS performed a flight from the points of deployment, having overcome more than 1.5 thousand km.

MOSCOW, February 15. /tass/. Tu-22M3 and MiG-31K long-range aircraft with Dagger missiles have been transferred to the Khmeimim airbase in Syria to participate in naval exercises of the Navy in the Mediterranean Sea. This was reported by the Russian Defense Ministry on Tuesday.

“The Tu-22M3 and MiG-31K long-range aircraft with the Dagger aviation complex have been relocated to the Khmeimim airfield (SAR) to participate in the naval exercise of the Navy’s inter-fleet grouping in the eastern Mediterranean. The crews of the Russian Air Force performed a flight from the points of deployment, having overcome more than 1.5 thousand km. During the exercise, long-range aviation pilots will have to perform tasks according to their intended purpose,” the ministry said.

As previously reported in the press service of the 6th fleet of the US Navy, from 6 to 7 February 2022, three aircraft carrier strike groups of NATO countries met in the Mediterranean Sea at once. A group of US Navy ships was led by the aircraft carrier Harry Truman, the French fleet was led by the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, and the Italian Navy was represented by the aircraft carrier Conte di Cavour. The combined squadron included a large number of ships and support vessels, as well as naval aviation groups.

Why Did Biden Call Putin?

February 12, 2022

Simple: to make sure that in case false flag happens (which is most likely) the US assets and “decision-making centers” are not annihilated. But that is not how it is going to work. While Biden declares:

According to a White House readout of the call, Biden warned Putin that the US and its allies would “respond decisively and impose swift and severe costs on Russia” in the event of an invasion, and that such military action would “diminish Russia’s standing” internationally. Biden, who has thus far ruled out sending US troops to Ukraine, said that should diplomacy fail, America is “equally prepared for other scenarios.”

Both sides know that militarily the US (and NATO) are impotent and Russia’s strategic ambivalence is what drives Washington crazy. After all, Russia may decide to go all in, but in this case it is not going to be 404 only. Who said that Baltic States can not be “included” in the package? There are so many possibilities. As RT reports further:

Should Russia take military action, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov on Saturday of a “resolute, massive and united trans-Atlantic response.” However, President Biden has thus far ruled out sending US troops to Ukraine, choosing instead to send thousands to Poland and Romania instead. Before speaking to Biden, Putin spoke to French President Emmanuel Macron by phone for nearly two hours. French officials told AFP that Putin wants an independent Ukraine that would remain out of the NATO alliance, something Western leaders have ruled out. Moscow has long insisted that NATO arms on its border would constitute an unacceptable security risk.

I am on record, Russia is not afraid of “sanctions” and there could be no any military response by NATO because the only response the US can offer militarily is a nuclear one, but even the most ludicrous hawks in D.C. want to live, with the exception of a dozen or two  of total fanatics in US Admin and Congress. My guess will be, since, as I am also in record ad nauseam, US “strategists” (Council on Foreign Relations, Atlantic Council, AEI etc.) are one trick ponies, they developed a “strategy” (or, rather, strategery) which, as is always the case with cowardly bullies, was designed based on a faulty “understanding” of conflict and lack of knowledge of Russia, and the hope was for an initial bullying effect on Russia. They couldn’t calculate consequences because they do not have situational awareness. Russia responded in kind and continues to show a very big stick protruding from behind Russia’s back. And now, the US is cornered and is in panic mode, because Russia’s military exercises are a very good demonstrator of a military capability which IS excessive for hypothetical “invasion” of 404 but also sufficient to achieve much larger objectives. And Washington doesn’t know what those objectives may be. They panic now, because they have no idea. Staying in the dark is extremely unpleasant.

Milley’s called Gerasimov yesterday for a reason. Russia has enough forces to smash NATO in Eastern Europe without much effort. Here is just one example:

MOSCOW, February 12. /TASS/. Russia has handed a note to US military attache in connection with the US nuclear-powered submarine’s incident in Russia’s waters near the Kuril Islands, the Defense Ministry said on Saturday. “On February 12, a representative of the office of the military attache for defense issues at the US Embassy in Moscow has been handed over a note at the Main Directorate of the International Military Cooperation of Russia’s Defense Ministry in connection with the violation of Russia’s state border by the US Navy’s submarine,” the statement said.

Submarines in the exercise areas are nothing new, Russia, US, UK do this all the time, what is new is that this one was detected and tracked within Russia’s territorial waters.

According to the ministry, a Virginia-class submarine belonging to the US Navy was detected on February 12, 2022 at 10.40 (Moscow Time) in the area of the Pacific Fleet’s drills near Iturup Island of the Kuril Islands. Under the guiding documents on protection of the Russian state border in the underwater environment, the crew of the Pacific Fleet’s frigate Marshal Shaposhnikov used appropriate means. The US submarine started a self-propelled simulator to split the target image on radar and acoustic control means into two parts and retreated from Russian territorial waters at a maximum speed, the ministry said.

And this very public move by Russia was also done for a reason–to demonstrate that there are enough forces to deal with any threat. Russia plans to start the exercises of a nuclear triad pretty soon too (in Russian). So, a lot of firepower on display. Scary, eh?

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The Hypersonic Fall of US Prestige

January 3, 2022

Even against the backdrop of recent events, the US stubbornly refuses to acknowledge that “American credibility” in the world is falling apart. It is not just a question of political credibility or the collapse of 20 years of American military intervention in Afghanistan. This fall did not begin with Biden or Trump, but with the faulty perception by the current political and military establishment of the United States of its alleged exceptionality and dominance in the world and its total corruption.

Despite the policy pursued by the current US authorities to exert pressure and push their weapons into foreign markets, they have long been unable to compete in many areas, particularly with Russian weapons. The American military who went through armed conflicts in Vietnam and other countries have repeatedly emphasized in The Atlantic and other specialized military magazines the indisputable advantages of the legendary Soviet AK-47 assault rifle over the M-16 rifle, which is most popular in the US military. Today, many of even American media outlets already point out that American weapons cannot protect American soldiers “from the machinations of the enemy.” And here, it would be worth recalling the problems with the US Navy, the collapse of the submarine fleet. Or more new shortcomings revealed with each passing day of the fifth-generation fighter F-35, heftily advertised by the Pentagon, which, despite the billions of US taxpayers’ dollars already invested in it, still cannot guarantee the declared level of capabilities, having turned into an “American scam.”

Throughout all the time since Russia declared it had the hypersonic Zircon missile, even though its tests were announced by Moscow in advance and conducted regularly, the US and NATO missile defense/anti-missile defense systems have never been able to detect its launch and further flight. According to the conclusions of military experts, the Space-Based Infrared System (SBIRS) is only able to provide information on a “fire in the hole!” basis. Modern technologies are unable to intercept such a target.

In this regard, NATO and US military commanders have serious concerns that their air defense/anti-missile defenses would be useless in the event of a possible military conflict. However, it should be emphasized that the Russian nuclear deterrence and nuclear weapons policy does not stipulate a first strike on enemy territory. The conditions for Russia’s use of nuclear weapons are clear, and they call only for a retaliatory counter-strike.

As for the shorter-range hypersonic weapons, for example, the Kinzhal has a range of about 2,000 kilometers. This is not a strategic range but an operational-tactical range. But SBIRS can’t pick it up either.

Therefore, Russian hypersonic weapons are causing great anxiety among US strategists. In this sense, the words of Glen VanHerck, a general in the United States Air Force, that hypersonic weapons of Russia challenge the early warning systems of the US Department of Defense are quite logical. After all, if the target maneuvers at hypersonic speeds, there is an insoluble problem for intercept. At such speeds, the interceptor missile must have more energy than the hypersonic target, and the overloading, in this case, will be such that no material and no missile can withstand it.

As for the US hypersonic weapons, another test of the AGM-183A hypersonic missile under the Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW) program failed, specialized portal The War Zone reported recently citing a US Air Force official. In late July, it came to light that the US Air Force had already twice failed to test the prototype hypersonic missile AGM-183A, which, according to Washington, was allegedly able to reach Moscow and reach speeds over 15,000 miles per hour, (five times the speed of sound, although the Russian Zircon hypersonic cruise missile already flies at a speed eight times faster than sound!). Nevertheless, attempts to inflate the long sagging US missile cheeks and threats that Washington will, if necessary, send to Europe hypersonic medium- and short-range missiles (which, it should be said, the US does not have) to “deter” Russia continue unabated from Washington.

At the same time, President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly proposed to Washington additional steps to de-escalate the situation in Europe. The Russian Foreign Ministry has published the draft treaties of Russia with NATO and the United States on security guarantees, which are not yet accepted for consideration in Washington and Brussels, unfortunately.

Instead, the Pentagon is trying to intimidate the world with its new effective weapons by actively promoting, through controlled media, the US Navy’s test of a Laser Weapon System Demonstrator (LWSD) combat laser that destroyed a floating boat target in the Gulf of Aden in the Indian Ocean on December 14. The LWSD laser is designed to counter UAVs and remotely piloted explosive-laden boats commonly used by Houthi insurgents in the Red Sea. US authorities believe the technology could be a “game-changer” in future conflicts, including in the event of a major war with China, reports The Daily Telegraph.

At the same time, the Pentagon deliberately omits the fact that the guidance systems of the US-tested combat laser can be suppressed using electronic warfare without much problem. Its effectiveness falls in fog and haze. That is why even today, the conclusions of some experts can be seen all over the place that the primary purpose of “new Pentagon weapons” is just another siphon off and appropriation of taxpayers’ money, which has already ruined the development of research work of American armament specialists on hypersonic weapons.

Under these circumstances, all Washington has to do today is to rely on the United States’ own use of China’s “miracle weapon” that it used to scare the common American man during the Cold War era: a giant slingshot, which supposedly could be pulled by millions of Chinese soldiers. And the Pentagon is already making some progress in this regard with the adoption, in particular, of the Strategic Long-Range Cannon (SLRC) by the US Army, which, supposedly, instead of the non-existent hyper-weapons, will be able to “bombard Moscow” like in that old scare story about a slingshot.

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By Vladimir Platov
Source: New Eastern Outlook

Andrei Martyanov: The Timing of Russia’s Ultimatum to NATO

December 20, 2021

سر التصلب الإيراني في فيينا… ابحثوا عن السلاح السري!

ألاربعاء كانون أول 15, 2021 

محمد صادق الحسيني

تدور نقاشات معمّقةً، بين الكثير من المحللين والباحثين العسكريين والاستراتيجيين الأوروبيين، حول سرّ التصلب الإيراني في المفاوضات النووية، الجارية في فيينا منذ حوالي اسبوعين تقريباً، وهو التصلب الناتج، حسب تقديرهم عن ثقة زائدة بالنفس، سواءً على الصعيد السياسي او الدبلوماسي، وقبل كلّ شيء على الصعيد العسكري.

ويعتقد هولاء انّ ذلك يعود الى اسباب عديدة، او يمكن ربطه بعوامل قوةٍ إيرانيةٍ استراتيجية خفيةً، تُمَكِن القيادة الإيرانية من المناورة الاستراتيجية المستندة الى قوةٍ عسكرية خارقةّ تجعل من المستحيل على خصوم إيران ان يفكروا جدياً بالقيام باي عملية عسكرية ضد إيران، مهما كانت محدودة.

ومع انه من نافل القول ان يُشار الى الفرق الهائل في القدرات العسكرية، بين الولايات المتحدة وإيران، الا ان هؤلاء الخبراء يرجعون صلابة الموقف الإيراني، السياسي والعسكري، الى سببين رئيسيين هما:

أولاً: ان تكون إيران تمتلك نظام حرب الكترونية شبيه بنظام الحرب الالكترونية الروسي، من طراز: مورمانسك بي إن (Murmansk B N). وهو نظام تشويش الكتروني مخصص لاعتراض الموجات اللاسلكية المعادية والتشويش عليها او قطعها. ويغطي عمل هذا النظام كامل طيف الموجة القصيرة (موجة الإرسال)، بدءاً من ثلاثة وحتى ثلاثين ميغاهيرتز (٣ – ٣٠ ميغاهيرتز)، وهي الموجه المستخدمة بين سلاح الجو وسلاح البحرية ومراكز القيادة والسيطر في القوات المسلحه الأميركيه (بالاضافة الى قوات حلفاء أميركا في المنطقة).

وهذا يعني انّ أنظمة التشويش الروسية تبدأ بالتشويش على اتصالات العدو بمجرد ان يكتشف النظام اي اشارة لاسلكية معاديه، مما يؤدي الى قطع التواصل، بالكامل، بين القوات الجوية والبحرية، العاملة في مسرح العمليات، ومراكز القيادة والسيطرة.

الامر الذي يؤدي، وبشكل فوري الى سقوط أسراب الطائرات المهاجمة، للاراضي الروسية او الإيرانية في هذه الحالة، ودون اطلاق طلقةً واحدة باتجاه هذه الطائرات. وهو ما ينطبق على القطع البحرية ايضاً، حيث يقوم هذا النظام بحجب الاتصالات بين الاساطيل الجوية والبحرية ومراكز قيادتها وذلك عبر حجب إشارات الاقمار الصناعية بالكامل عنها.

وبكلمات أخرى، فان القوات الأميركية وقوات حلف شمال الاطلسي تصبح عاجزةً عن تنفيذ اية عمليات قتالية، ضمن دائرة قطرها خمسة آلاف كيلو متر.

ولهذا السبب بالذات، دائرة الخمسة آلاف كيلومتر فإنّ روسيا قد قامت بنشر هذا النظام في كلٍ من:

– شبه جزيرة القرم، في جنوب غرب روسيا.

– شبه جزيرة كولا Kola Peninsula (شمال غرب روسيا / اي في اقصى شمال شرق فنلندا وبالقرب من القطب الشمالي للكرة الارضية).

– مقاطعة كالينينغراد Kaliningrad، وهي المقاطعة الروسية غير المتصلة جغرافياً، عبر البر، مع روسيا، والواقعة على ساحل خليج دانتسيغ  (Danzig)، بين ليتوانيا وبولندا.

– الشرق الاقصى (اي منطقة جنوب الساحل الروسي على المحيط الهادئ في مقاطعة ڤلاديڤوستوك – تبعد عن موسكو مسافة عشر ساعات طيران).

بالاضافة الى ان الاساطيل الروسية جميعها، اسطول الشمال / اسطول بحر البلطيق / اسطول البحر الاسود واسطول المحيط الهادئ، مزودةً بهذا النظام القاتل والقادر، كما أشرنا اعلاه، على إسقاط كافة التشكيلات الجوية او الصواريخ الاستراتيجية او غيرها من وسائل الحرب الجوية في دائرة خمسة آلاف كيلو متر.

وبذلك فإنّ هذا النظام يغطي كافة أنحاء أراضي جمهورية روسيا الاتحادية، الامر الذي يجعل روسيا محمية بالكامل، وليست بحاجةٍ لا للدخول في سباق تسلح ولا حتى في حرب محدودةً او واسعة مع خصومها.

كما لا بدّ من التذكير، بانّ هناك نظاماً آخر، رديف لهذا النظام، في الحرب الالكترونية، منتشراً في المناطق والاساطيل الروسية، المشار اليها أعلاه، ومخصص لحجب او قطع وصول اشارات نظام الاتصالات الدولي / جي بي إس GPS، وهو نظام كراسوخا / ٤ (Krasukha 4).

وهو ما يعني ان القوات المعادية سوف تكون هائمةً في الميدان، دون ايّ اتصالات، لا بين القوات على الارض ولا بين القوات ومراكز القيادة. ما يجعل الحرب قد حسمت دون طلقةٍ واحدة.

ويخلص الباحثون والاستراتيجيون الأوروبيون الى انّ إيران تملك هذا النظام قطعاً، خاصةً وانّ الطيارين الأميركيين قد اشتكوا مراراً، حسب العديد من أخبار وتقارير لصحف ومجلات أميركية مختصة بالشؤون العسكرية، من تعرّض طائراتهم، ومن بينها طائرات F 35 الشبحية، الى تشويش الكتروني قوي، في الأجواء السورية، ارغمهم على قطع مهماتهم والعودة الى قواعدهم.

كما لا بدّ من التذكير بأنّ مطار تل ابيب قد تعرّض، قبل حوالي عام، الى تشويش الكتروني شديد، استمرّ حوالي ثلاثة أشهر، وأسفر عن ارتباك شديد جداً في حركة الطيران في أجواء المطار واضطر سلطات الملاحة الجوية المعنية الى تغيير مسارات الطائرات لمحاولة تفادي التشويش، دون جدوى. وهو ما أرغم سلطات المطار آنذاك الى تحويل عشرات الرحلات الجوية الى مطار لارنكا القبرصي.

وعلى الرغم من كثرة التحليلات، لأسباب ما حدث في مطار تل ابيب، فانّ الخبراء المذكورين أعلاه، يعتقدون جازمين انّ سبب ذلك هو تدريبات إيرانية على أجهزة تشويش الكتروني إيرانية، شبيهة في مواصفاتها لنظام التشويش الروسي: مورمانسك / بي إن (Murmansk B N)، وهو نظام متحرك محمول على شاحنات عسكرية ثقيلة.

ثانياً: ان تكون إيران تملك انظمة سلاح كهرومغناطيسي (Non- Nuclear Electromagnetic) NNMP)Empuls)  قوي جداً قادرٌ على تدمير مدن باكملها. وهي انظمة يمكن اطلاقها عبر وسائل مختلفه اهمها؛

– الصواريخ المجنحة.

– المروحيات القتالية.

– الطائرات المسيّرة.

وجميعها وسائل قتال جوي تمتلك منها إيران الكثير الكثير، خاصة الصواريخ المجنحة، وانواع الصواريخ الثقيلة والبعيدة المدى الاخرى.

مع العلم ان القوة التدميرية لهذا السلاح تعتمد على قوة الموجه الكهرومغناطيسية التي تنتج عن انفجار الرأس الحربي للصاروخ او المسيرّة التي تحمله. وعليه فان هناك احجاماً، وبالتالي قدرات تدميرية، مختلفة لكل موجة كهرومغناطيسية (او صاروخ كهرومغناطيسي)، يتم التحكم بحجمها من قبل صانع القرار العسكري ومن قابل الشركات او المؤسسات الصانعة لهذه الاسلحة.

وعلى الرغم من ان الخبراء الاستراتيجيين، المذكورين اعلاه، يعتقدون ان هناك بعض الصعوبة في تدمير مدن بكاملها، من خلال هذا السلاح، الا أنهم مقتنعون بأنّ هذا السلاح قادر على تدمير البنى التحتية، كمحطات توليد الكهرباء وتحلية المياه ومراكز الاتصالات ومراكز القيادة والسيطرة العسكرية والخدماتية، لأيّ دولة كانت وبشكل كامل، مما يعني ان “إسرائيل”، في هذه الحالة التي يجري فيها النقاش حول امكانيات الردع الإيرانية، فإنّ الجيش “الإسرائيلي”، بكافة صنوفه، سيصبح خارج الخدمة، ايّ غير قادر على القيام بأيّ عمليات عسكرية، مهما صغرت، مما يجعل مسألة تدمير حيفا وتل أبيب وتسويتها بالأرض، حسب بعض التصريحات الصحافية الإيرانية في مناسبات متعددة، أمراً غير ضروري.

وذلك انطلاقاً من حقيقة ان إحداث حالة شلل كامل، في كافة مناحي الحياة، العسكرية منها والمدنية، في “إسرائيل” سيفتح الطريق، امام قوات حلف المقاومة، للوصول، بكل سهولة، حتى الى القدس وليس فقط الى حيفا وتل ابيب.

وهذا طبعاً ليس سيناريو خياليا، على الاطلاق، وانما هو توصيف للمشهد الذي سيلي استخدام مثل هذه الاسلحة، من قبل إيران، والتي لا توجد وسائل للتصدي لها بفعالية.

ولعلّ أبلغ دليل على انّ هذه الاحتمالات، التي يجري بحثها وتحليلها، بعد دراستها، من قبل أهل الاختصاص المُنَوَهْ اليهم اعلاه، لعل ابلغ دليل على ذلك هو:

التقرير، المكوّن من مائتين وثماني صفحات، والذي أعدّته لجنة أميركية مختصة، مكونة من تسعة علماء، لتقييم اخطار تعرض الولايات المتحدة الأميركية لهجوم كهرومغناطيسي، ونشرته في شهر نيسان ٢٠٠٨، واكدت فيه كل الاحتمالات، المشار اليها أعلاه.

وفي الخلاصة فلا بدّ من التأكيد على حقائق ساطعةً، تتعلق بالموقف الإيراني في المفاوضات النووية وغيرها من المفاوضات الاقليمية، هي التالية:

1 ـ لا مصلحة للولايات المتحدة الأميركية بالدخول في صراع مسلح جديد وطويل الأمد التي في الشرق الاوسط. وهو أمر يعلمه صانع القرار الإيراني ويبني عليه. وهذا هو الركن الاول للموقف الإيراني الصلب.

2 ـ ان التصريحات الصاخبة والضجيج “الإسرائيلي” المرافق لها، حول الموقف من إيران، بما في ذلك زيارات المسؤولين العسكريين والامنيين “الإسرائيليين” المتتابعة لواشنطن، لا تتعدّى كونها جعجعة بلا طحين. وهذا ما يعرفه صانع القرار الإيراني ويبني عليه ايضاً. وبذلك نكون قد وصلنا الى الركن الثاني في اركان الموقف الإيراني الصلب.

3 ـ ان كلّ ما نراه ونسمعه، حول مجمل مسارات الصراع، وعلى كامل مسرح عمليات الشرق الأوسط، بين حلف المقاومة والولايات المتحدة وأتباعها في الشرق الاوسط، إنما هو انعكاس لموازين القوى الاستراتيجية، في المنطقة والعالم، خاصة اذا وضعنا في الاعتبار تزايد التوتر بين الولايات المتحدة والصين وبين الولايات المتحدة وروسيا، وما لهذا الصراع من انعكاسات على التحالفات القوى الدولية، او الدول العظمى، مع القوى الاقليمية في الشرق الاوسط.

وهو ما يتضح بشدّة من خلال سماح واشنطن لأتباعها العرب بفتح قنوات تواصل مع إيران، بعد ان كانت قد أمرتهم بنقل المعركة الى داخل إيران، قبل سنوات، وفشلوا في ذلك. وهو الفشل الذي وجد انعكاساً له في كلمة محمد بن سلمان، مساء يوم ١٤/١٢/٢٠٢١، التي ألقاها في افتتاح ما يُسمّى: قمة التعاون الخليجي، واعلن فيها عن ضرورة إيجاد حلّ سياسي للحرب على اليمن.

ايّ انه اعترف، ولو بشكل غير مباشر، بفشل مغامرته في اليمن، التي تستمرّ مشاهدها الإجرامية منذ سبع سنوات.

وهذا ايضاً يعرفه صانع القرار الإيراني ويبني عليه. وعليه فان ذلك يشكل الركن الثالث للموقف الإيراني الصلب، على كل المستويات، وليس فقط في المفاوضات النووية في فيينا.

4 ـ اما الركن الرابع، الذي يستند اليه الموقف الإيراني الصلب، فهو العمى السياسي والاستراتيجي “الإسرائيلي” من ناحية، وصلابة وصبر اطراف حلف المقاومه الاستراتيجي، وفي كلّ الساحات.

اذ انّ قادة هذا الكيان السياسي، المسمّى “إسرائيل”، والمقام في فلسطين المحتلة، غائبون عن الوعي تماماً ولا قدرة لهم جميعاً على قراءة الوضع الاستراتيجي لكيانهم، بشكل موضوعي. بمعنى انهم يواصلون ضجيجهم واثارة الهلع بين مستوطنيهم لأسباب حزبية وشخصية تافهة ولا قيمة لها، ولا تمتّ للفهم السياسي والاستراتيجي بأية صله.

صحيح انّ الكثير من دول العالم تشهد مثل هذه الصراعات، الدائرة بين الأحزاب والقوى والشخوص، التي تسمّي نفسها سياسية في هذا الكيان، الا انّ تلك الدول تبقى دولاً ليست مهدّدة بالزوال، كما هو حال الكيان، في حالة قراءةٍ سياسية او استراتيجية خاطئة. وانما سيقتصر الامر على زوال حزب سياسي بعينه او طبقة سياسية معينة.

وهذا طبعاً ما يعرفه صانع القرار الإيراني ويبني عليه، تمهيداً لإطلاق الصفحة الاخيرة من الهجوم الاستراتيجي لحلف المقاومة، والذي انطلق من حلب السورية، كما الشيخ عز الدين القسام، قائد اول ثورة فلسطينية منظمة سنة ١٩٣٦. هذا الهجوم الذي سينتهي بدخول قوات حلف المقاومة، برداً وسلاماً، الى القدس المحررة في أقرب الآجال.

بعدنا طيبين قولوا الله…

GEOFOR interviews The Saker: Will Kiev decide on an open armed conflict?

December 05, 2021

Note: in late November I was interviewed by the Russian website Geofor.  Here is the English language translation of this interview.

GEOFOR: Mr. Raevsky, no sooner have the American warships left the Black Sea than the British went in there. Apparently, “unscheduled exercises” of NATO ships and Ukrainian watercraft are about to commence, again. Again, near the maritime borders of the Russian Federation. Moreover, a couple of American military boats were delivered to Odessa (although, politely speaking, not quite new). As a military analyst with experience in intelligence, how do you assess the degree of threats from this incessant demonstration of force in terms of the possibility of provoking a military conflict with far-reaching consequences?

Andrei Raevsky: From a military point of view, I assess the degree of direct threat from these forces as zero. Firstly, any ship that enters the waters of the Black Sea can be instantly destroyed by a number of Russian coastal defense systems and/or the Russian Aerospace Forces. So, the degree of threat from them is zero. Secondly, they are equipped with  rather outdated Tomahawk missiles. They have a relatively low flight speed, and they do not pose a great threat to Russian air defense systems.

On the other hand, there is an indirect threat from these NATO ships. And very serious. They are nudging Ukrainians in the same way as in 2008 they nudged Saakashvili in Georgia. They give Kiev a mistaken feeling being under an umbrella, under the protection of the US Navy or, say, NATO bomber planes, which is a complete deception and delusion, but this is the real danger.

GEOFOR: Does Russia have the ability to protect itself if it comes to launching Tomahawks? And how is this perceived in Pentagon and NATO headquarters? In the same context: what, in your opinion, is behind the decision of the Russian president to reject the Ministry of Defense’s offer to hold its unscheduled exercises on the Black Sea simultaneously with the United States and NATO? How will it be perceived in the Washington military-political establishment – as confidence in the capabilities of the Russian military to respond adequately to provocative actions or, as a desire not to take a potentially dangerous situation to the extreme?

Andrei Raevsky: Yes, of course, Russia can defend itself. As I just said, these are relatively slow and outdated cruise missiles, which do not pose a great danger to the multi-layered integrated air defense of the Crimea and the South of Russia and the entire Southern Military District of the Russian Federation. You can remember what the US missile strike on Syria was like, where most of them [Tomahawks] were shot down not by the Russian contingent in Syria – this is very important to emphasize – but by the Syrians with their relatively simpler air defense system.

Thus. I don’t think that all these Tomahawks threaten Russia very much.

I will also add that if the United States and NATO wanted to hit Russia with Tomahawks, it would be better for them to get out of the Black Sea and go to the Mediterranean Sea and move away to the maximum distance – just so as not to be instantly sunk.

Putin’s decision not to conduct simultaneous maneuvers in the Black Sea, in my opinion, is absolutely reasonable.

In Washington, this is likely to make an impression, in a certain sense, of a staged scene: Shoigu says: “I am ready”,  and Putin takes such a peacemaking, pacifying step. This is what in the West is called “Good cop – bad cop.” In fact, they are, of course, united in terms of developing principles and strategies for protecting Russia from possible aggression.

GEOFOR: And now a little more about Ukraine and the situation around it. Russian analysts find many analogies in the situation in Ukraine now and the one that was in Georgia on the eve of August 2008. How would you characterize the factors (internal and external) that could lead to Kiev deciding on an open armed conflict? And what will this lead Ukraine and Europe as a whole to? Who, in the end, may be the beneficiary?

Andrei Raevsky: Yes, the situation is very similar to that. And I would even say that the situation Zelensky is in, is worse than the one Saakashvili was in.

I’m afraid that his rating is such that he really has nothing to lose. The question of whether Kiev will decide on an open armed conflict implies that Kiev has an opportunity to solve something. I doubt it very much. Without getting the “go-ahead” from the “Washington Regional Party Committee” Kiev will not move. Thus, if Kiev moves, it will be, at least, in the presence of a “tacit” – not even consent – order, when the West gives the command “Attack!”. Few people in the West care that Kiev will then “get its ass kicked.”

But the most important thing in this context is to remember that the goal is not to “liberate ORDLO from Muscovites” (Note: “ORLDO” is the current official Ukie legal term for the LDNR) or “restore democracy and territorial integrity of Ukraine” and so on. The goal is to force Russia to openly invade Ukraine and start a war: so that it cannot be denied, in order to totally sink energy projects between Russia and the EU and make the EU completely dependent, first of all, on American shale gas and other energy carriers. And to achieve these goals, Ukraine does not need any victory at all – it’s enough to just say: “Here, these evil Putin’s “green men” have seized even more territory! Oh, how bad they are!”

We can say that from a military point of view, Russia will win very quickly. But from a political point of view, it will be a victory for the United States.

GEOFOR: Do you consider it possible that, with NATO’s symbolic support in the Black Sea, as well as the presence of various American, British and other instructors on land, Kiev will decide on a military provocation not in the Donbas, but in the Black Sea? After all, it is known that everyone is waiting for the Ukrainian military offensive in the east of the country, and why, for example, Zelensky not follow the path of his predecessor Poroshenko, who sent boats to break through the Kerch Strait, and, creating a conflict situation, disrupted the already agreed meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin? Moreover, the second meeting of the Russian and American presidents this year is now being prepared…

Andrei Raevsky: Yes, such a provocation in the Black Sea is very likely. It is enough to recall their provocation when Ukrainian boats tried to pass into the Kerch Strait. And it was without any presence of Americans. Of course, this is possible. I think this is not only possible, but it will definitely happen.

And if there really are plans to arrange a meeting between Biden and Putin, then Ukrainians have very little time left. In December, Americans convene their “Democracy Forum”, then there are holidays…

If there is this meeting – and we don’t know if there will be one – there could be a lot of things that could undermine it. For supporters of the war – both in the United States and in Ukraine – this is a very important moment that cannot be missed.

GEOFOR: And in conclusion. If it is likely that the ongoing Russian-American consultations (the arrival of the Deputy Secretary of State and the director of the CIA in Moscow, for example) and the dialogue between the two leaders, which, hopefully, will take place, will lead to at least some stabilization, both around the Ukrainian problem and in bilateral relations. What problems in this regard could you highlight?

Andrei Raevsky: These consultations are very important, and this is a very desirable development of the situation because American officials of this level have not come to Moscow twice to present some kind of ultimatum.

To present an ultimatum, you can simply use a consul.

To do this, there is absolutely no need to send the highest representatives of the American authorities to Moscow.

The conversations that took place – whatever they were – were to the point. And they were serious. As long as both sides are talking, at least they are not shooting. And this is very desirable.

And we can only hope that such consultations will continue in the future.

Of course, the Americans are the most dangerous enemy for Russia. This needs to be understood.

This is not a get-together with a “vodka-herring” menu to just shoot the breeze. Neither is this a friendly meeting.

But this is a direct dialogue of those who can really make decisions in a difficult situation and influence the situation.

And in this regard, it is very important.

Therefore, there is no need to fall into the mistake that Americans very often fall into when they say: “We don’t talk to such and such.” We don’t talk to terrorists, we don’t talk to states and “regimes” that we don’t recognize. This is a very big mistake.

You need to talk to everyone, often including the fiercest enemies.

source: https://geofor.ru/4710-andrej-raevskij-reshitsya-li-kiev-na-otkrytyj-vooruzhennyj-konflikt.html

https://geofor.ru/4710-andrej-raevskij-reshitsya-li-kiev-na-otkrytyj-vooruzhennyj-konflikt.html

Tension Escalates: US Destroyer Sails through Taiwan Strait

Nov 23, 2021

By Staff, Agencies

An American warship has again sailed through the disputed Taiwan Strait, a move sure to enrage Beijing after repeat warnings over previous transits, which Washington deems “routine” missions to ensure a “free and open” Pacific.

A US guided-missile destroyer made its way through the strait on Tuesday local time, the Navy’s 7th Fleet announced in a statement, saying the move was conducted “in accordance with international law” and “demonstrates the US commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific.”

The Joe Biden administration has largely carried on ex-President Donald Trump’s regular transits through the strait, with Biden conducting them on a near-monthly basis since taking office in January.

Last month, the Chinese military blasted a joint US-Canadian sail-through as threatening regional peace and stability, in line with reactions to previous missions in the area.

Beijing, for its part, has also invoked the ire of Taipei with its own military exercises in recent months, flying warplanes into what Taiwan considers to be its air defense identification zone, which was criticized as a violation of Taiwanese airspace and an attempt at intimidation.

Though the United States, like most other nations, keeps no formal diplomatic relationship with Taipei, Washington has long been a close partner to the island, with the Biden administration following in Trump’s footsteps by approving “defensive” weapons sales to Taiwan earlier this year, including hundreds of millions in artillery gear and precision guidance kits for munitions.

The Living Dead Pax Americana

September 30, 2021

Perth in Australia will be a forward base for nuclear-powered and nuclear weapon-carrying American subs.

by Pepe Escobar – posted with the author’s permission and cross-posted widely. 

Pax Americana was always a minor character in a zombie apocalypse flick.

Pax Americana is actually The Eternal Return of the Living Dead. “Pax” was never in order; War Inc. rules. The end of WWII led directly to the Cold War. The unipolar moment was an arc from the First Gulf War to the bombing of Yugoslavia. 9/11 launched the Global War on Terror (GWOT), renamed Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO) by Team Obama. We are now entering Cold War 2.0 against China.

What former CIA analyst Ray McGovern memorably describes as the MICIMATT (military-industrial-congressional-intelligence-media-academia-think tank complex) never did “Pax”. They do War, in unison, like The Knights Who Say “Ni!” – minus the comic flair.

Take this Knight for the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), the heart of the establishment matrix. CFR specializes in Kissingerian Divide and Rule. Now that applies, in spades, to the Russia-China strategic partnership.

Knights overwhelmingly state the obvious: “Chinese power must be contained”. They sell the current, serial imperial debacle as “grand strategic moves”, in a quirky, lost in translation mixed salad of Gramsci and Lampedusa: a “new order” (engineered by the Empire) is being born via “everything must change so everything may remain the same” – privileging the Empire.

Other Knights even propose the ludicrous notion that the current POTUS, an actual zombie remote-controlled by a teleprompter, is capable of conceiving a “foreign policy for the middle class” , as if the MICIMATT would ever approve a scheme to “advance prosperity in the free world as a whole”. The “free world” has just been stunned by the “prosperity” offered to Afghanistan during 20 “bombing to democracy” years.

And then there are British Knights, who at least should have known their Monty Python by heart, carping about illiberalism and the “regimes created by Xi and Putin” , which will “crumble” and be succeeded by “anarchy and new despotisms.” Same old Anglo haughtiness mixed with piercing ignorance. Oh, those Asiatic “tyrannies” threatening the White Man’s civilizational drive.

We all live in an Aussie submarine

Now it’s all about AUKUS – actually U SUK A. Until recently, only the P5 – the five permanent UNSC members – possessed nuclear-powered submarines. India joined the club, and later rather than sooner, Australia.

Every major player knows the next American war will not be about remote Pacific islands. Taiwan, though, is a completely different ball game. U SUK A is mostly about Taiwan.

U SUK A was finalized at the G7 summit in Carbis Bay last June. That was an Anglo Boys Club affair, discussed exclusively by the Biden-BoJo-Morrison troika – and duly excluding Japan, even as Tokyo all but drew a samurai sword yelling its intent of supporting Taiwan.

The problem is there have been no leaks of the fine print contained in U SUK A. Only spin. Yet it’s already clear that U SUK A goes way beyond building Aussie nuclear subs. Canberra will also have access to Tomahawks, Hornets and even become part of American hypersonic missile research.

But then, in a slip, Australian Defense Minister Peter Dutton gave away the game: U SUK A will allow the upgrading of “the infrastructure in Perth, that will be necessary for the operation of these submarines. I expect we will see…lease arrangements or greater joint operations between our navies in the future.”

Translation: Perth will be a forward base for nuclear-powered and nuclear weapon-carrying American subs.

Why U SUK A now? Let’s go back to WWII – and the same old cartoonish geopolitics of benign Anglo maritime island powers pitted against the “evil” Eurasian heartland.

WWII was the solution to simultaneously prevent Germany from dominating the Atlantic and Japan from dominating the Asia-Pacific (by the way, that’s the correct terminology: “Indo-Pacific” is Empire-speak).

Germany-Japan was all about an alliance that would be predominant across the Eurasian heartland. Now, the Empire of Chaos is being slowly but surely expelled from the Eurasian heartland – this time by the Russia-China strategic partnership.

Those with technical knowledge across the Beltway – not, not the Knights – are aware the US is not a match for hypersonic Russia. Yet the Americans believe they can make life unbearable for Beijing. The US establishment will allow China to control the Western Pacific over their dead bodies. Enter the instrumentalization of Australia.

A big question is what will be the new role of the Five Eyes. With U SUK A, the Anglo Club has already stepped beyond mere intel sharing and spying on communications. This is a military pact between Three Eyes.

Depending on the composition of its new government, Germany could become a Sixth Eye – yet in a subordinate role. With U SUK A, NATO as a whole, fresh from its spectacular Afghan debacle, becomes little else than a semi-relevant vassal. This is all about maritime power.

U SUK A in effect is a Quad Plus, with India and Japan, the Fifth Columnist Asians, only allowed to play the role of, once again, mere vassals.

War before 2040

Not surprisingly, the first, concise technical and strategic assessment of U SUK A is Russian, written by Alexander Timokhin and published in Vzglyad, closely linked to GRU intelligence. Here, provided by John Helmer, is an essential English translation.

The key points:

– the extra subs will create a serious, additional threat; “the problem of combating enemy submarine forces will become quite acute for China.”

– Geographically, “Australia can completely block the connection between China and the Indian Ocean.”

– Australia will meet the deadlines only if it lays “more submarines a year than the Americans.”

– It is “possible to quickly make Australia a country with a submarine fleet.” These “gigantic investments and sharp political turns are not carried out just like that. The hegemony of the Anglo-Saxons in the world is seriously shaken.”

And that brings us to the inevitable conclusion: “It is worth recognizing that the world is on the verge of war.”

Even before the Vzglyad strategic assessment, I had submitted the ravings of yet another Beltway Knight – widely praised as a sage – to an old school, dissident Deep State intel analyst. His assessment was merciless.

He wrote me, “the geopolitical logic is that the China-Russia alliance was determined to be against US interests, much as the Mao-Stalin alliance. SEATO and NATO are being replicated. The treaty between England, Australia and the US is part of the Pacific rebalancing, or a new SEATO. NATO is part of the offset against Russia-China in Europe.”

On what might lie ahead, he noted that “the coup against the US, Australia, England and NATO would be a French-Russian alliance to break up NATO and isolate Germany. Russia has unsuccessfully approached Germany, and now may approach France. The loss of France would effectively end NATO.”

He sees U SUK A all dressed up with nowhere to go: “As it stands now, China is in command of the Pacific and Australia and Britain mean nothing. Russia can overrun NATO in two weeks, our adversaries’ hypersonic missiles can destroy all NATO airfields within five to ten minutes and the battle for Europe would be over.”

He’s adamant that “the US cannot project power into the Pacific. Chinese submarine missiles would finish off the US fleet in short order. The Australian submarine issue is really irrelevant; if the CIA had an organization that was worth anything they would know that our adversaries already can spot and destroy our nuclear submarines without the slightest difficulty. The entire US Navy is obsolete and defenseless against Russian missiles.”

And it gets worse – at least for the cheerleading Knights: “The F-35 is obsolete. The Air Force is largely worthless, as Russian and Chinese missiles can finish off their airfields or aircraft carriers in short order. The woke US Army is more worthless than the French Army with their Maginot Line. The Joint Chiefs of Staff are paid less than 200k a year, and are second or third rate talent. The US is a sinking ship.”

Assuming that’s really the case, the – nuclear – war against China in the Western Pacific, projected in the Beltway to happen in the second half of the 2030s, would be over even before it started. Taiwan may even be part of China by then – an offshoot of Beijing always proposing economic exchanges to all, while Washington always “proposes” war.

One thing though will never change: The Knights Who Say “Ni!” singin’ the praise of Pax Americana to the utter indifference of the unruly plebs.