ROCKETS POUND US BASE IN NORTHERN IRAQ LEADING TO CASUALTIES

Source

The United States has already started bearing the consequences of the decision of the Biden administration to halt the troop drawdown from the Greater Middle East.

On February 15th, 14 rockets struck the area of the US military base near Erbil International Airport, 4 of them within the compound, 10 of which were near strikes. One private contractor was killed and 5 were injured. In a rare event, 1 US service member was also wounded.

The location of the attack coincides with Turkey’s operation “Claw Eagle 2” which targets the alleged Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) positions. Most of northern Iraq was on edge, as a result.

Turkey and the US, as NATO allies appear to not be cooperating whatsoever, as they’re pursuing separate goals in largely the same areas of the Middle East.

Ankara’s activities contribute to the chaos of the Middle East situation, as it targets the PKK, while the US mostly targets and is targeted by Iranian-backed forces.

Another US ally, this time one that aligns its activities with it – Israel struck unknown targets around Damascus.

It launched missiles from the occupied Golan Heights, and many of them were intercepted by Syrian air defenses, however, some landed on their targets. It is unclear what was targeted and what the damage was.

There have been no strikes by Israel through Lebanese airspace after a drone was downed, and Hezbollah vowed to attempt to destroy any Israeli aircraft that encroaches on its airspace.

Movements throughout the Middle East are beginning for the US and its allies.

In Iraq, many of the targeted convoys in the last several weeks have reached their destinations.

With a lack of reports of convoy targeting, it would appear that the currently static positions are under threat.

Iran is continuing its movements, undermining US and Israeli influence, and it has had general success in recent weeks. The US is fighting back against it.

On February 11th, a truck moving supplies for an Iranian-backed unit, al-Haydariyun, was targeted near Syria’s border with Iraq.

According to the Resistance Media Network, the truck was targeted by a drone likely operated by the US military.

In Yemen, the US said it would attempt to impose a peace deal, on its own terms. It claims to stop supporting Saudi Arabia’s genocidal intervention. Washington, however, also continues providing defensive services and intelligence.

Following Joe Biden’s first foreign policy speech, the time for the US to move has come. In the coming days, the “fight against ISIS” is sure to ramp up, alongside various other movements throughout the Middle East.

ARRANGING THE MIDDLE EAST NARRATIVE TO PUSH THE AGENDA FORWARD

South Front

The United States is returning to a level of activity in the Middle East unseen in nearly 4 years. This development has become obvious over the weeks since Joe Biden became US President, firstly with a large deployment into Syria, and subsequently with smaller ones.

On February 9th, the Pentagon said that it was no longer in Syria to protect and exploit oil fields.

It is now back to hunting ISIS. Back to the square one of 2014 and the Obama era. ISIS somehow obliged by ramping up their activities throughout Syria.

It is a mystery that they were able to make such a sharp and sudden resurgence. It should also be noted that the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces allegedly have about 10,000 ISIS terrorists imprisoned.

This statement of intent denotes a massive shift in posture for the US.  When defending the oil fields the US troops were mostly static, when hunting ISIS they can, once again, roam around and carry out various operations.

It appears likely that Idlib is now also in focus – US combat drones were observed surveying Greater Idlib. Idlib is a mixed bag – it has Turkish troops, Russians, the Syrian Arab Army along with terrorists and the moderate opposition, although confusing these two groups can be forgiven. The newest, future, US ally is there – the soon-to-be-rebranded Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham.

An indication of expected escalations and attacks are the Russian and Syrian military drills being carried out near Aleppo during effective wartime. Russia, separately, carried out a naval drill near Tartus.

And, as if by design, long-range missiles attempted to strike Russia’s forces at the Hmeimim Air Base. Drones occasionally attempt to infiltrate its airspace, but missiles are a rare sight.

Meanwhile in Western Daraa, the rebel leaders submitted to Damascus, likely fearing the upcoming chaos and wanting to choose a side.

Finally, the Biden administration is also working to secure Israeli support. The State Department said it doesn’t endorse Trump’s recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, but doesn’t oppose it. It also provided a $9bn weapon sale as consolation. Tel Aviv is likely to use these weapons to counter its nemesis – Iran. It does so by targeting alleged Iranian interests in Syria.

Syria remains the lynchpin of US Middle East policy but the US posture in Iraq and Afghanistan has also changed. Withdrawing from the region is now out of the question – ISIS is making a resurgence, and there are other groups targeting American forces and convoys.

In Afghanistan, specifically, if the withdrawal does not move forward, the Taliban are also likely to begin targeting the US again.

The democrats are back in control and back to spreading democracy in the Middle East.

IRANIAN-BACKED FORCES RECEIVE NEW MISSILES AS TENSIONS GROW IN IRAQ

South Fronts

The second month of 2021 began with preparations by Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) for new round of hostilities.

Kata’ib Hezbollah received short and medium range rockets through Syria, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Kata’ib Hezbollah is a key member of the PMU, actively participates in the fight against ISIS since the emergence of the group in Iraq, and is a vocal supporter of the current attempts to oust the US presence from Iraq.

At the same time, the PMU are subject to more and more frequent ISIS attacks in recent days. As the terrorists appear to be popping up all around. On January 31st, the PMU said they repelled an ISIS attack in the region of Jurf al-Sakhar in the province of Babil.

These apparent appearances by ISIS members coincide with reports by pro-Iranian sources blaming the US for airlifting them. On January 31st, in an interview with the al-Maloumeh news website, Sabah al-Akili claimed that the US military airlifts ISIS units into areas behind PMU positions in the Jurf al-Sakhar region.

So far, US President Joe Biden’s policy for the Middle East is incredibly unsurprising. Any potential withdrawals appear to be nothing more than a pipe dream. The first-ever African American Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said that the Trump Administration’s decision to withdraw was being reconsidered. Not only that, but it is likely that the deployments need to be increased.

Attacks on US supply convoys have become commonplace, all of them being blamed on the PMU. However, responsibility for the most recent attack was assumed by the Qasim Al-Jabbarin group, which does not declare its affiliation with the PMU.

With the US still leading the way for NATO in the entire region, any exit also from Afghanistan becomes more fiction than reality. This will, in turn, lead to increased Taliban activity, since the peace deal is not being honored.

US troops remaining in Syria is also indisputable, judging by the deployments that have recently taken place.

The responses to these refusals to withdraw will lead to more frequent attacks and accusations from the Axis of Resistance. The answer from the Iran-led group will be not only against the US presence, but also against its allies in the face of Israel and Saudi Arabia. Yemen’s Houthis are responsible for dealing with Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabian fighter jets continue their attacks on reported Houthi targets, but mostly civilians. The ceasefire in al-Hudaydah is not being honored. Despite the Kingdom’s best efforts, the Houthis still have the upper hand in the conflict. On January 28th, at least 150 members of the Saudi-backed forces switched sides and went over to the Ansar Allah movement (the formal name of the Houthis). Additionally, drone attacks are more frequent. The Kingdom reported that it repelled several attacks, but such reports were not as common until recently.

That is when Iran deployed brand-new loitering munitions to the Houthis, and a new group made its appearance to target Riyadh’s ambitions on the Arab Peninsula.

Tensions in the Middle East continue deepening. The advent of reports of the airlifting of terrorists is something that’s been rare since the Obama-era. It appears that the region is once again subject to this known and proven method of “diplomatic intervention.”

Sayyed Nasrallah: Assassinating Soleimani, Al-Muhandis Set the US Troops on the Track of Being Expelled from the Region

Sayyed Nasrallah: Assassinating Soleimani, Al-Muhandis Set the US Troops on the Track of Being Expelled from the Region

By Zeinab Abdallah

Hezbollah Secretary General His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah delivered a speech on Sunday marking the first martyrdom anniversary of the Islamic Revolution Guard [IRG] Quds Force Commander Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani, Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Units [PMU] second-in-command Hajj Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, and their companions.

The martyrs were assassinated in a US drone strike ordered by outgoing President Donald Trump a year ago near Baghdad International Airport while martyr Soleimani was on an official visit to the country on January 3rd, 2020.

At the beginning of his speech, Sayyed Nasrallah condoled with the demise of Ayatollah Sheikh Mohammad Taqi Mesbah Yazdi, a prominent Iranian scholar and philosopher.

His Eminence further extended condolences to the families of the commemorated martyrs, emphasizing that the painful tragedy will be commemorated in history minding its size and the blood that was shed during it, in addition to its repercussions on the entire region.

“We mustn’t deny the grace and the kindness of those leaders, and we admit this and talk about it to the people and the world,” Sayyed Nasrallah added, underscoring that “when we are loyal to our great martyrs who were faithful in shouldering the responsibility, it will come back to us in the worldly life and the afterlife.”

“One of the main factors of victory is loyalty, and loyalty requires us to thank all those who have backed us,” Sayyed Nasrallah noted.

His Eminence further highlighted the necessity of thanking Hajj Qassem Soleimani and Hajj Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis for all what they offered, in addition to all those who represent the martyrs for the sacrifices they offered.

Hailing martyr Soleimani as a hero and a global symbol of sacrifice, loyalty, and defending the oppressed, Sayyed Nasrallah noted that “What has been uncovered about the achievements Hajj Qassem has made is still little [in comparison with what is still unknown].”

“We’ve witnessed great and remarkable shows of loyalty to the blood of the martyr leaders since their martyrdom until today,” Sayyed Nasrallah said in reference to Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain, Turkey and many Muslim and non-Muslim nations, pointing that “we in Lebanon are also concerned with showing this loyalty to those leaders.”

Since the year 2000 until this day, the Resistance was the side that is protecting and defending Lebanon, the Hezbollah leader noted, stressing that Lebanon’s main source of pride is the Resistance which was unconditionally backed by Iran.

“Iran’s support to the Resistance in Lebanon and Palestine has been unconditional,” Sayyed Nasrallah made clear.

Elsewhere in his remarks, the Resistance leader slammed certain Lebanese media outlets that tended on Saturday to fabricate a statement made by the IRG Aerospace Division Commander Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizdeh: “There are in Lebanon certain sides that take fabrication and falsification as a profession.”

“It is true that we in Lebanon are a frontline, also is Gaza, but Hajizadeh didn’t say that we are a frontline for Iran, but a frontline to confront the ‘Israeli’ occupation,” Sayyed Nasrallah underscored.

“The resistance is the only side capable of protecting Lebanon’s oil resources thanks to its weapons, in addition to the Iranian and Syrian support,” His Eminence noted, reiterating that “The resistance in Lebanon is among the most independent resistance movements in history.”

Lebanon and Gaza are naturally the frontlines of the Muslim Nation due to their geographical position near the Zionist entity, and tensions have been high in the region and the Zionist entity is on alert on the first martyrdom anniversary of Soleimani and Al-Muhandis, Sayyed Nasrallah went on to say.

“We in Lebanon cannot equalize between those who backed us with their stance, money, weapons, and were martyred by our side, and between those who conspired against us and supported the ‘Israeli’ enemy, Sayyed Nasrallah said, setting a similar equation for the regional countries such as Palestine, Syria, and Iraq.

“The Palestinian resistance factions couldn’t equalize between those who support it and those who conspire against the Palestinian people and their sanctities. Syria couldn’t equalize between those who conspired against it and supported the Takfiri groups, and between those who defended it and supported it. The Iraqis couldn’t equalize between those who sent them Takfir suicide-bombers and between those who helped them liberate their lands.”

The Hezbollah leader then hailed the Axis of Resistance, nation, peoples, the resistance movements and their political parties, and the regional countries that have shown loyalty and appreciation to the martyrs Soleimani and al-Muhandis.

“There are major concerns among the Gulf countries, and ‘Israel’ has raised alertness ahead of the martyrdom anniversary of leaders Soleimani and al-Muhandis,” Sayyed Nasrallah said, explaining that “Tension is high in the region and we don’t know where would any incident end up; some assume that Iran would depend on its friends to respond, but when Iran wants to respond it will do it by itself had it been via a security or a military response.”

His Eminence further made clear that “The friends of Iran are the ones who decide if they wanted to respond to this crime, and Iran is not weak, it is strong and it decides how and when it responds.” He also admitted that the Axis of Resistance was able to contain the big strike of assassinating martyr Soleimani.

“The US supposed that by assassinating Hajj Qassem it would weaken Iran and the Axis of Resistance, but we are the ones who know how to turn this threat into an opportunity,” Sayyed Nasrallah outlined before addressing the US, ‘Israel’ and all those conspiring against the resistance: “When you kill our leaders, we will be more stubborn, solid and adherent to our rights.”

His Eminence also warned those betting on weakening us through killing, wars, and booby-trapped cars, telling them that they are delusional.

While noting that the slogan of expelling the US from the region wouldn’t have been applicable before the assassination of Hajj Qassem Soleimani, Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that the martyrdom of leaders Soleimani and al-Muhandis has set the US troops on the track of leaving Iraq and the region.

US President Donald Trump said that the US has found Daesh [the Arabic acronym for terrorist ‘ISIS/ISIL’ group], and this is true because there are reasons behind the existence of Daesh, Sayyed Nasrallah added.

Regarding the recent clampdown targeting Hezbollah’s financial institutions, Sayyed Nasrallah uncovered the party’s information that “the US has paid hundreds of thousands of dollars for media outlets to produce reports about the al-Qard al-Hassan Association.”

While referring to blacklisting Hezbollah as a psychological goal to frighten the Lebanese people, Sayyed Nasrallah addressed those behind it in much confident tone: “Even if you besieged us in the land, we have the mountains, the sky, the seas, the angels, and all of Allah’s creatures that we know and don’t know. We have Allah by our side, and whatever you did you will fail, it is because those who depend on Allah will emerge victorious. Victory is not but from Allah.”

His Eminence said before finishing his speech that he will appear in the coming days to tackle several important Lebanese issues he wanted to give sufficient time.

Sayyed Nasrallah: When You Kill Our Leaders We Become More Determined, Firm And Unswerving To The Right

Sayyed Nasrallah: When You Kill Our Leaders We Become More Determined, Firm And Unswerving To The Right

Translated and Subtitled by Staff

Hezbollah Secretary General His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah reiterated Imam Khomeini’s words: “Kill us! For indeed our nation will become more and more aware.”

His Eminence made the remarks in the occasion marking the first martyrdom anniversary of resistance leaders Hajj Qassem Soleimani, Hajj Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, and their companions.

السبيل لإحباط أهداف الحرب الاقتصادية واستكمال معركة التحرّر الشامل من الاحتلال والهيمنة

 حسن حردان

لا تثقوا بالحكام الأميركيين، سواء كانوا من الجمهوريين أو من الديمقراطيين. فالضمانة لإحقاق الحقوق واستعادة المنقوص منها، وإحباط المشاريع والخطط الاستعَمارية للولايات المتحدة، وردع عدوانيتها وتمكين العرب من تحرير فلسطين، إنما هي مواصلة حلف دول وقوى المقاومة، طريق المقاومة المسلحة، والعمل في ذات الوقت على تحقيق التنمية الاقتصادية والعدالة الاجتماعية، بما يحقق الاكتفاء الذاتي من احتياجات الشعب وتوزيع الموارد بعدالة.

لقد بات واضحاً انّ حلف المقاومة نجح في تحقيق جملة من الأمور الهامة من خلال تصدّيه ومقاومته للمشاريع والمخططات الاستعمارية التي استهدفت إعادة رسم خريطة المنطقة وإخضاعها بالكامل للسيطرة الأميركية وأدواتها.. وتجلى نجاح حلف المقاومة بالأمور التالية:

الأمر الأول، إفشال الحروب العسكرية المباشرة، الأميركية الصهيونية، وإلحاق الهزيمة العسكرية والمعنوية بقوات الاحتلال الأميركي الغربي والصهيوني، في العراق، ولبنان، وغزة.

الأمر الثاني، إحباط أهداف الحروب الإرهابية بالوكالة التي قامت بها أميركا في سورية والعراق واليمن، بعد فشل حروبها العسكرية المباشرة..

الأمر الثالث، إحباط مخططات الفتنة الطائفية والمذهبية التي استهدفت دول وقوى المقاومة في سياق ما سُمّي الحرب الناعمة التي استهدفت شيطنة المقاومة والدول الداعمة لها، ومحاصرتها وإضعاف شعبيتها وتقويض عوامل صمودها وصولاً إلى محاولة فرض الاستسلام عليها ونزع أسلحة قوتها إلخ…

اما اليوم فقد بات الحفاظ على هذه الإنجازات وتعزيزها، لاستكمال معركة التحرر الشامل من الاحتلال والهيمنة الاستعمارية بكلّ أشكالها، العسكرية والأمنية والسياسية والاقتصادية والثقافية، يتطلب أيضاً إحباط أهداف الحرب الاقتصادية المميتة ببطء لجمهور دول وقوى المقاومة، فهذه الحرب تقتل الناس بالحصار والتجويع، من دون أن تتكبّد، الحكومات الأميركية والغربية والصهيونية، أي خسائر مادية أو بشرية..

على أنّ تحقيق النجاح في إحباط أهداف الحرب الاقتصادية، يستدعي بالضرورة، الى جانب خوض المقاومة المسلحة ضدّ قوات الاحتلال الأجنبي، اعتماد سياسات اقتصادية واجتماعية ترتكز الى بناء الاقتصاد الذي يحقق التنمية والعدالة الاجتماعية في توزيع الموارد…

انّ سلوك هذا النهج من قبل دول وقوى حلف المقاومة هو السبيل إلى تحقيق ما يلي:

أولاً، إسقاط أهداف حرب الحصار الاقتصادية، والعقوبات الأميركية، وإجبار إدارة العدوان في واشنطن على التسليم بحقّ شعوب ودول المنطقة في تقرير مصيرها واسترداد حقوقها، واحترام سيادتها واستقلالها بعيداً عن أيّ تدخلات أجنبية…

ثانيا، منع إدارة الرئيس الأميركي جو بايدن، المقبلة، من الاستمرار في الحرب الناعمة التي دشنتها الادارة الديمقراطية في عهد الرئيس باراك أوباما، واستمرت فيها إدارة الرئيس الحالي دونالد ترامب، وبالتالي إجبارها على سلوك طريق:

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ـ العودة إلى الالتزام بالاتفاق النووي نصاً وروحاً من دون أيّ تذاك لمحاولة إدخال تعديلات عليه لن تلقى اي صدى أو اهتمام لدى القيادة الإيرانية، وبالتالي إلغاء كل القرارات والإجراءات الاقتصادية التي اتخذتها إدارة الرئيس دونالد ترامب اثر انسحابها من الاتفاق النووي وتعويض إيران عن الأضرار التي أصابتها نتيجة لذلك.

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ـ سحب القوات الأميركية المحتلة من سورية والعراق والكفّ عن مواصلة التدخل في شؤونهما الداخلية ودعم وتغذية الجماعات الإرهابية من داعش والنصرة وغيرهما من التنظيمات التي صنعتها الاستخبارات الأميركية ودفعت الأنظمة التابعة لواشنطن إلى دعمها بالمال والسلاح لتنفيذ حروبها الإرهابية التي فشلت في تحقيق أهدافها في إخضاع سورية والعراق لنظام الهيمنة الاستعمارية الأميركي..

انّ اعتماد هذه الاستراتيجية المتكاملة، التي بدأت بها كل من سورية وإيران، يجب أن يقترن كذلك بشن حرب بلا هوادة ضد الفاسدين، والمستغلين من التجار.. فعبر تنفيذ هذه الاستراتيجية يتمّ تحقيق هدفين مهمين:

الهدف الأول، تعزيز التفاف الناس حول خيار الصمود والمقاومة في مواجهة قوات الاحتلال الأجنبي وأدواتها الإرهابية والرجعية، وتحصين الجبهة الداخلية…

الهدف الثاني، سدّ المنافذ أمام قوى الاستعمار، التي تحاول الاستفادة من الثغرات الداخلية، وإنهاك الناس بالحرب الاقتصادية لإعادة فرض مخططاتها، التي فشلت في تحقيقها بواسطة قوتها العسكرية وأدواتها الداخلية والإرهابية.

إنّ إنجاز هذين الهدفين، الى جانب مواصلة استنزاف قوات الاحتلال بالمقاومة المسلحة، هو الذي يؤدي إلى إجبار قوى الاستعمار على التراجع والانكفاء والتسليم بالهزيمة وسحب قواتها المحتلة بلا قيد أو شرط على غرار ما حصل في لبنان عام 2000، وفي غزة عام 2005، وفي العراق عام 2011 .. وبالتالي اختصار عمر المعاناة وتحقيق التحرر الشامل والناجز من الهيمنة الاستعمارية بكلّ أشكالها..

القائد الأممي

الأخبار

حسن عليق الإثنين 4 كانون الثاني 2021

بعد أيام على اغتيال اللواء قاسم سليماني، كان ديوسدادو كابيلّو، أحد أقوى الشخصيات في الحكم في فنزويلا (في العسكر كما بين المدنيين)، يلقي خطاباً في التجمع العالمي المناهض للإمبريالية، فافتتحه بطلب وقوف الحاضرين تحية «للشهيد الكبير الجنرال قاسم سليماني، الذي اغتيل على يد الإرهاب الأميركي الشمالي».

الرجل الذي أنقذ هيوغو شافيز من انقلاب العام 2002 وساهم في إنقاذ بلاده من محاولات انقلابية أخرى لاحقاً، لم يكن يتحدّث عن شهيد محور المقاومة من منطلق «التضامن الثوري» حصراً. هو يرى في إيران داعماً لبلاده أيضاً. توقيت الخطاب سبق بستة أشهر وصول شحنات البنزين الإيراني إلى فنزويلا. لكنه تلا سنوات من التعاون بين طهران وكاراكاس في نواحي شتى، أبرزها الجانب العسكري الذي قلما يُصرّح عنه المسؤولون في البلدين. هناك برنامج عمل، هدفه تعويض النقص الذي تعانيه فنزويلا في قطع غيار الأسلحة والطائرات بسبب الحصار الأميركي، إذ سبق لإيران أن خاضت تجربة مشابهة مع جزء من سلاحها الأميركي الصنع مذ كانت تحت حكم الشاه. لكن الأهم هو مساعدة إيران لكاراكاس على مأسسة «الميليشيات الشعبية» في الدولة اللاتينية، لحماية نظام الحُكم من الانقلابات. طيف قاسم سليماني كان حاضراً في كل هذه الميادين.

لكن كابيلّو كان ينطق بلسان تيار عريض في «الوطن اللاتيني الكبير». هذا التيار اليساري، سواء في الحكم أو خارجه، يرى في إيران الثورة، ومحور المقاومة، حليفاً موضوعياً. ففي تلك البلاد، ومنذ أكثر من 120 عاماً، كانت غالبية التجارب الاستقلالية الحقيقية تصطدم بالسياسات التوسعية للشمال. كان القائد الوطني الكوبي، الشهيد خوسي مارتي، من أوائل الذين تنبّهوا إلى هذه المعضلة، حيث لا تزال أطماع «أميركا الشمالية» هي العائق الأول أمام الاستقلال في أميركا الجنوبية.
يوم أمس، لاقى الرئيس البوليفي السابق وزعيم التحالف اليساري الحاكم في بلاده، إيفو موراليس، كابيلّو، ليصف سليماني بأنه أحد «أبطال القتال ضد الإمبريالية وشهدائه في العالم». كان موراليس أيضاً ينطق باسم التيار نفسه. هذا التيار الذي يرى أن تطوير بلاده وتحسين حياة السكان فيها يمران حتماً بمواجهة العدوانية الإمبريالية الأميركية.

هي الحرب الكبرى التي يجب أن تُخاض، بالصورة نفسها التي خيضت بها بعد عام 1982، انطلاقاً من لبنان


استحضار كابيلّو وموراليس (من بين عشرات الأمثلة في أميركا اللاتينية) لا يهدف إلى «افتعال» بُعد أممي لشخصية سليماني. فهذا البُعد موجود فعلاً. ويندر، في العقود الأخيرة على الأقل، العثور على شخصيات يترك حضورها، كما غيابها، أثراً كبيراً في كل دول الإقليم، وصولاً إلى «أقاصي» العالم، كما هي حال سليماني. على مدى 22 عاماً، كان سليماني يعمل كوزير ثانٍ لخارجية إيران، ورئيساً ثانياً لجهاز استخباراتها الخارجية، وقائداً لقواتها خارج الحدود، وسفيراً فوق العادة لقائدها، وصلة وصل بينها وبين حلفائها، كما بين الحلفاء أنفسهم. وفي جميع الأدوار، لم يكن الحاج قاسم منفذاً لسياسات وحسب، بل صانعاً لها، ومشاركاً في رسمها. يمكن النظر إلى دوره في الحرب السورية، بعد عام 2012، كمثال اعتمده في كل عمله. ابتدع تجربة «الممرات الآمنة»: طرق يصل طول بعضها إلى عشرات الكيلومترات (وأحياناً المئات)، تخترق «أراضي العدو»، لتصل «الأراضي المحررة» بعضها بالبعض الآخر، وتسمح بنقل آمن للمقاتلين والسلاح والمال والغذاء والوقود وما يلزم للحياة، وتغيّر مجرى المعارك. هكذا كان يفعل أيضاً بين الحلفاء، في الإقليم وحول العالم.

يصعب، بعد مرور عام على اغتياله، سدّ الثغرة التي خلّفها غيابه. والمحور الذي كان أحد قادته، مُلزم، بعد مرور 12 شهراً على الجريمة، بالرد على قتله غيلة، مع رفيقه القائد أبو مهدي المهندس. وهذا الرد ليس للثأر حصراً، بل هو، أولاً، لإعادة ميزان حياة المحور إلى ما كان عليه قبل الثالث من كانون الثاني 2020. والرد هنا لا يكون، بإيقاع أكبر قدر ممكن من الخسائر البشرية في صفوف العدو، على المستويات كلها، وحسب. فموازين القوى تَحُول، حتماً، دون التكافؤ في الضربات. الرد، في المقام الأول، هو في توسيع المساحات الآمنة، عسكرياً وأمنياً وسياسياً واقتصادياً، حول «الممرات الآمنة» التي أقامها سليماني ورفاقه، الشهداء منهم والأحياء، في طول الإقليم وعرضه، كما حول العالم. وتوسيع هذه الرقعة يبدأ بإخراج قوات الاحتلال الأميركي من الإقليم. هي الحرب الكبرى التي يجب أن تُخاض، بالصورة نفسها التي خيضت بها بعد عام 1982، انطلاقاً من لبنان. فاستقلال هذه البلاد مستحيل من دون مواجهة العدوانية الإمبريالية الأميركية، وأبرز مظاهرها الاحتلال العسكري المباشر.

من ملف : القائد الأممي

مقالات ذات صلة

Iranian President’s Chief of Staff to Al-Ahed: Soleimani’s Martyrdom Broke His Killers’ Backbone

Iranian President’s Chief of Staff to Al-Ahed: Soleimani’s Martyrdom Broke His Killers’ Backbone

By Mokhtar Haddad

Tehran – On the occasion of the first martyrdom anniversary of General Hajj Qassem Soleimani, Al-Ahed News spoke with Dr. Mahmoud Vaezi, the Chief of Staff of Iran’s President.

Dr. Vaezi asserted that this martyrdom “broke the backbone and domination of his fake and weak killers.”

“The Trump administration viewed commander Soleimani as a major obstacle to its subversive and escalatory policies in the region, and that is why it assassinated him in this shameful and criminal way.”

In his interview with Al-Ahed, Vaezi pointed out that “the main response to this crime is the full withdrawal of the US from the region. Our basic strategy in the region, which we always made known to neighboring states, is for those countries to ensure security for this region and confront foreign interference. The Hormuz peace plan announced by President Rouhani at the United Nations remains on the table, and we believe that it will be achieved with the help of regional states. We believe that through regional cooperation we can establish peace and stability, and there is no need for foreigners to be present in the region.”

Below is the full transcript of the interview:

On the first martyrdom anniversary of Hajj Qassem Soleimani and his companions, the US claims that it has broken Iran’s backbone. What is your response?

In our Islamic teachings, we believe that the blood of the martyr is a stain on the oppressors. During his lifetime, martyr General Soleimani was the source of great deeds for the country, the Axis of Resistance, and the region. His martyrdom led to rapprochement and solidarity between the peoples of the region against America.

In fact, we believe that his martyrdom broke the backbone and dominance of his fake and weak killers. When a country that claims to be a superpower in the world assassinates our military commander in such a treacherous and cowardice manner during an official diplomatic tour, it means that first, you were not a worthy opponent, and second, you are against his legacy.

The legacy of martyr Soleimani is clearly evident today, not only in the region, but in the whole world, especially since he was the first enemy of the terrorists who turned the world into an insecure place. There were many terrorist incidents carried out by Daesh in the West, including Brussels, London, Manchester, and other European cities. The defeat of Daesh is the best evidence that martyr Hajj Qassem Soleimani made the region and the world safer. 

Martyr General Qassem Soleimani poured all his energy into confronting American conspiracies. How did he achieve this success and manage to counter America’s arrogant mood?

The greatest proof of the success of this great martyr in confronting arrogant American plots and thwarting its plans in the region, is his assassination by the Trump administration. It is clear that the Trump administration considered him a major obstacle to its subversive and escalatory policies in the region, which is why they assassinated him in this shameful and criminal way.

Martyr Soleimani sought to eliminate terrorism in the region. This great martyr was able to form a strong regional alliance against criminal terrorists in Iraq and Syria, and he helped the peoples of the region during difficult days in confronting Daesh and other terrorist groups.

Hajj Qassem was not only a man from the battlefield, but he was also a seasoned diplomat who combined courage and wisdom. His courage was rooted in his faith and belief. His wisdom was rooted in the knowledge and experience he had acquired during decades of pursuing the path of God.

His unique role was personified through his fight against terrorism, taking into consideration and with full respect for the national sovereignty of the countries concerned. So, based on an official request from the governments of Iraq and Syria, he helped them confront terrorism. This is why he was very popular in the countries of the region. Lieutenant General Soleimani is the pride of Iran, but we do not consider that he belongs to us alone. His departure was a tragedy for all Muslims. Even outside the Islamic world, he served humanity, regardless of nationality, religion, or ethnicity, by playing a major role in defeating Daesh and creating security and stability.

After Hajj Qassem’s martyrdom, Imam Khamenei declared that the main goal was to get US forces out of West Asia. A year after his martyrdom, what is America’s influence in the region?

This is not only a statement by the great leader of the revolution, but we believe it is a divine promise. As I said, we believe that the blood of the martyr is a stain on the oppressors and a starting point for their demise, as America’s power has declined today in the world and not only in West Asia. There are numerous clues that are being unveiled if we had time to delve into this topic. In our region, the influence and status of America has declined more than ever, and the martyrdom of Soleimani must have played an important role in this process.

How will the response to this crime be completed, especially since there is an emphasis on the need for an American withdrawal from the region?

In terms of the military response, you definitely know that the Islamic Republic of Iran poured missiles down on the American base involved in the assassination of martyr Soleimani. This targeted attack sent a clear message to the Americans that attacking the Islamic Republic of Iran and crossing its red lines will certainly not pass without a response.

However, as mentioned earlier, we view the main response to this crime as paving the way for a complete US withdrawal from the region. Our basic strategy in the region, which we always made known to neighboring states, is for those countries to ensure security for this region and confront foreign interference. The Hormuz peace plan announced by President Rouhani at the United Nations remains on the table, and we believe that it will be achieved with the help of regional states. We believe that through regional cooperation, we can establish peace and stability, and there is no need for foreigners to be present in the region. The presence of foreigners in the region has so far caused nothing but destruction and wars. We have always adopted this strategy, and after the martyrdom of Soleimani, we became more determined to achieve it.

What was martyr Soleimani’s role in confronting terrorism and in supporting and consolidating the axis of resistance?

His role in combating terrorism and supporting the peoples of the region in confronting terrorist groups was very clear. When the terrorists occupied two-thirds of Syrian territory, the siege they imposed was so severe that we witnessed bombings and terrorist operations near Damascus and near Syrian government institutions. The situation in Iraq was very similar to that of Syria, where Daesh occupied most of the country, and the level of insecurity peaked.

The images of the crimes committed by terrorists in these two countries, and of course in other parts of the world, have not yet been erased from the memory of the countries of the region. Whoever wants to realize the role of the Islamic Republic of Iran and martyr Qassem Soleimani in the region, must compare the images during those days when terrorism dominated the region with the situation today. The defeat of Daesh was the peak of the resistance in the region, and this would not have been possible without martyr General Soleimani and his field command.

On the martyrdom anniversary of Hajj Qassem, I would like to mention his comrade, the great martyr and Mujahid Hajj Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, one of the most prominent symbols of the resistance and one of the main leaders in the war against terrorism in Iraq. His name will remain immortal throughout history.

By assassinating Hajj Qassem, did America manage to stop his march or has the axis of resistance become stronger?

Martyr Soleimani’s path was that of resistance, facing arrogance, and jihad for the sake of God. Our religion taught us that this path does not stop at martyrdom. In Islam, we do not believe that martyrdom is a conclusion or an end, for martyrdom makes the path to the truth stronger, more dynamic, and higher. Although Hajj Qassem Soleimani was a hero in fighting terrorism and opposing arrogance, his martyrdom does not mean weakening the axis of resistance. Ironically, thanks to his pure blood, the peoples of the region woke up today, and the axis of resistance has become stronger than ever.

What was Hajj Qassem’s relationship and cooperation with the government of Iran like?

Foreign Minister Dr. Zarif provided a complete overview of this, which was recently published in various media outlets. It should be noted that in matters related to national security, national interests, and strategic issues such as foreign policy and regional policies, there was complete complementarity between all pillars of the Islamic Republic.

Martyr Soleimani’s operational range was one of those cases around which there was and still is a complete rapprochement in our country. In the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran, we have always considered diplomacy and defensive force as the two main wings of the country, and we have never separated these two wings or allowed either of them to weaken.

Accordingly, commander Soleimani had a very close relationship with the government of the Islamic Republic and the president himself.

Regarding foreign policy issues, regular weekly meetings were held with the Minister of Foreign Affairs. This rapprochement and coordination were not based on individuals alone, but it is a ruling strategy in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

People inside U.S. may respond to assassination of Gen. Soleimani: Quds Force chief

January 1, 2021 – 16:44

TEHRAN – The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmaeil Qaani said on Friday that some people inside the United States are likely to seek revenge for the assassination of his predecessor Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani.

Speaking at a ceremony held on Friday at the University of Tehran to commemorate the first anniversary of the assassination of the Lt. Gen., Ghaani said the U.S. assassinated the top Iranian commander at the behest of Saudi Arabia and Israel.

“By committing this crime, you [the U.S.] created a job for all freedom-seeking people across the globe. Be sure that it is possible that some people will be found inside your home to respond to your crime,” General Ghaani warned.

The general pointed out that enemies had been trying to target General Soleimani and his comrade Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy head of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), for at least 30 years.

“[But] during this period, the dirtiest man [Trump], with temptations from the Zionist regime and Saudi Arabia, went insane. All the world will condemn you. Those who committed this crime should know that throughout the world there would be a man who will punish the cowards behind this crime,” the commander of Quds Force cautioned.

He also said that the path of resistance and General Soleimani will continue and the U.S.’s acts of mischief will not stop the global support for the oppressed in Yemen, Syria, and Palestine, according to Tasnim.

Earlier on Wednesday, General Ghaani made similar remarks during a closed session of the Iranian Parliament, underlining that U.S. officials involved in the assassination of General Soleimani should learn how to lead a clandestine lifestyle in the future because Iran will take revenge against them.

“I warn the U.S. president, CIA director, secretary of defense, secretary of state and other American officials involved in the assassination of martyr Soleimani that they must learn the clandestine lifestyle of Salman Rushdie because the Islamic Republic will avenge the blood of martyr Soleimani which was shed unrightfully,” the Ghaani Twitter account quoted him as saying in the Wednesday session.

General Soleimani was assassinated in an American drone strike on January 3, 2020, along with al-Muhandis near Baghdad’s international airport. The strike was ordered by U.S. President Donald Trump, a reckless move that brought Iran and the United States close to an all-out war as General Soleimani was an influential figure in Iran and beyond. In response, Iran showered a U.S. airbase in western Iran with missiles, causing brain injury among dozens of American servicemen.

However, Iran has said time and again that the ultimate revenge for the assassination of General Soleimani would be far more important than a missile strike on a U.S. base. It would be the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region.

Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, has recently said that the missile strike on the American airbase of Ain al-Asad was slap on the face of America. But the tougher slap, the Leader said, would be the soft victory over the superficial hegemony of arrogance and the expulsion of the Americas from the region.

The Leader also underlined the need to take revenge for the assassination of the top general.

“Millions attending Martyrs Soleimani and Abu Mahdi’s funerals in Iraq and Iran was the first severe slap to the U.S. But the worse one is overcoming the hegemony of arrogance and expelling the U.S. from the region. Of course, revenge will be taken on those who ordered it and the murderers,” the Leader stated.

As Iran prepares to mark the first assassination anniversary, Iranian officials reiterated their determination to seek revenge for the assassination of the general.

On Friday, IRGC Chief Major General Hossein Salami announced that Iran is ready to avenge the assassination of General Soleimani and al-Muhandis.

“We are ready to avenge the blood of these martyrs and to forever liberate Muslims from the political, economic and cultural domination and hegemony of the Western world led by the mischievous Americans,” General Salami asserted.

He said Iran is not worried by the recent activities of the U.S. in the region, adding that “We are ready to defend our independence, vital interests and the achievements of our great revolution.”

The IRGC chief noted that Iran has sought to boost its capabilities over the past decades and it is now prepared for any showdown with any power.

“Over the past 41 years, we have created this readiness, and today, we have no problem and concern whatsoever to confront any power. We will tell our final words to the enemies on the battlefield,” General Salami continued.

He made the remarks on the sidelines of the Friday ceremony at the University of Tehran.

MS/PA

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Dr.. Shaaban to “Al-Mayadeen Channel”: Looking forward to Biden’s policy, the most important for us is US withdrawal from our land. د. شعبان لـ “قناة الميادين”: نتطلع لسياسة بايدن والأهم انسحاب القوات الأميركية من أرضنا

**Please scroll down for the English Machine translation**

 د. شعبان لـ “قناة الميادين”: نتطلع لسياسة بايدن والأهم انسحاب القوات الأميركية من أرضنا

سوريا الآن

2020-12-19

المستشارة الخاصة في الرئاسة السورية بثينة شعبان تقول إن هناك تطابق في وجهات النظر بين سوريا وروسيا. وتلفت إلى أنه “تم الاتفاق على بعض النقاط مع قسد بشأن علم البلاد ووحدتها وسلامة أراضيها لكنهم لم يوقعوا الاتفاق”.

قالت المستشارة الخاصة في الرئاسة السورية بثينة شعبان، إن زيارة الوفد السوري إلى موسكو إيجابية.

وأكدت شعبان للميادين أن “الاجتماع مع لافروف استمر 4 ساعات وناقشنا كل المواضيع وهناك رؤية مشتركة للأوضاع، وهناك تطابق في وجهات النظر بين سوريا وروسيا”.

كما لفتت إلى أن العالم يشهد تحولاً تاريخياً ومستقبله يعتمد على الفاعلين فيه ورؤيتهم له. وتابعت “ناقشنا الوضع في سوريا والإجراءات القسرية الأحادية التي تفرضها واشنطن في المنطقة”، سائلةً “كيف يمكن لواشنطن أن تخرق قرارات الأمم المتحدة بشأن سوريا وتحتل أرضها وتنهب نفطها؟”.

شعبان قالت إن “هناك معارك كبرى تخوضها الدولة السورية وروسيا وأطراف دولية لمحاولة وضع العالم على مسار صحيح”، مشددة على أنه “لم نطلب أي مساعدة لأن التعاون الاقتصادي مع روسيا يسير بشكل ممتاز”.

وبحسب شعبان، “بعد تحرير معظم الأراضي السورية حولوا الحرب من الميدان إلى الاقتصاد، وهناك حلول نضعها مع حلفائنا”، معتبرةً أن هناك آليات وخطط وعمل لمواجهة الحصار المفروض على الشعب السوري”.
 
المستشارة الخاصة في الرئاسة السورية رأت أن “الحليف الروسي ينشط في كل مجال ممكن لرفع العقوبات وفتح المسار لإعادة الإعمار في سوريا”، معربةً عن أملها بأن تشارك دول عربية وغير عربية في إعادة الإعمار “وهناك جهود حثيثة تبذل في هذا الإطار”.

شعبان للميادين: لن نفرط بسيادة سوريا وشروط جيفري لا تساوي الحبر الذي كتبت به
وفيما يخص ملف عودة اللاجئين، اعتبرت شعبان أن منع الخبراء الأمميين من المشاركة في مؤتمر اللاجئين يكشف حجم المفارقة بين كلام الغرب وأفعاله، مؤكدةً في هذا السياق أن الحكومة السورية ستوفر كل ما تتطلبه عودة اللاجئين السوريين إلى بلدهم.
 
وأكدت أن “ما تخطط له الولايات المتحدة ليس قدراً والشعوب قادرة على تخطي مخططات واشنطن”، موضحة أنه “نحن لم نفرض القطيعة مع واشنطن ولكن هي التي اعتدت علينا”.

واعتبرت أن “كلام جيمس جيفري وشروطه لا تساوي قيمة الحبر الذي كتبت به وسوريا لن تفرط بسيادتها”، مؤكدةً أنه لا أحد يقرر لدمشق كيف يجب أن تكون علاقتها بإيران وحزب الله والمقاومة الفلسطينية.

وحول سياسة إدارة بايدن، لفتت إلى أن بلادها تتطلع كيف ستكون سياسية الإدارة الأميركية الجديدة، والأهم وفقاً لشعبان “انسحاب القوات الأميركية من سوريا”.
 
وتابعت شعبان قائلةً: “لا نتوقع الكثير من الإدارة الجديدة فمنطقتنا عانت من الإدارتين الديموقراطيين والجمهوريين”، معتبرةً أن العلاقة بين سوريا وروسيا مختلفة عن علاقة بعض الدول مع الولايات المتحدة.

إلى ذلك أوضحت في حديثها إلى الميادين أن العلاقة بين دمشق وموسكو علاقة “ندية وقائمة على الاحترام، فروسيا والصين تحترمان حلفاءهما”، قائلةً “لا يمكن لروسيا أن تطلب من دمشق إخراج إيران أو حزب الله من أراضيها فهذا أمر غير مطروح بتاتاً”.
 
أما بالنسبة للضغوط الأميركية والأوروبية بشأن الانتخابات المقبلة، قالت شعبان “لا تعنينا”. لافتةً إلى أن “الروس لم يفتحوا معنا موضوع الانتخابات الرئاسية المقبلة في سوريا أبداً”.

ودعت شعبان كيلي كرافت إلى “الاعتراف الحقيقي بالقرار رقم 2254 الذي يتناقض مع احتلال بلادها لأراضينا”. 

كما اعتبرت أن الوفود التي تأتي من الخارج للمشاركة في أعمال اللجنة الدستورية، “تعبر عن مرجعياتها وأسيادها، ولا تعبر عن مصلحة الشعب السوري بل عن مصالح خارجية وهذا سبب بطء عمل اللجنة الدستورية”.

شعبان للميادين: ليس هناك أي ثقة بما يمكن أن يقوم به إردوغان 
شعبان أشارت للميادين إلى أن روسيا تتوقع استمرار تركيا بسحب قواتها من النقاط التي تم الاتفاق عليها بين بوتين وإردوغان، مضيفةً “ليس هناك أي ثقة بما يمكن أن يقوم به إردوغان ولكننا نتابع ما يجري على الأرض”.

ووفقاً لها، تم الاتفاق على بعض النقاط مع قسد بشأن علم البلاد ووحدتها وسلامة أراضيها لكنهم لم يوقعوا الاتفاق، مؤكدةً أن بعض قوات قسد مرتهن للإرادة الأميركية والخلاف بينه وبين تركيا هو صراع على نهب الأرض.

وفي الختام، أكدت أن “ما يجري في العالم العربي ليس في صالح الدول التي طبعت مع العدو الصهيوني”، قائلةً إن “إرادة الشعب العربي ما زالت حية من أجل صنع مستقبل أفضل وإرادة الغرب ليست قدراً”، مشددة على أنه “لا خيار سوى التمسك بالقضية الفلسطينية وبأراضينا المحتلة”.

Dr.. Shaaban to “Al-Mayadeen Channel”: Looking forward to Biden’s policy, the most important for us is US withdrawal from our land

Syria now

2020-12-19

Syrian Presidential Special Adviser Buthaina Shaaban says there is a similarity of views between Syria and Russia. “Some points were agreed with Qasd on the country’s flag, unity and territorial integrity, but they did not sign the agreement,” she said.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is 5445.jpg

Syrian Presidential Special Adviser Buthaina Shaaban said the Syrian delegation’s visit to Moscow was positive.

“The meeting with Lavrov lasted four hours and we discussed all the topics and there is a common vision of the situation, and there is a similarity of views between Syria and Russia,” Shaaban told Al-Mayadeen.

She also pointed out that the world is undergoing a historic transformation and its future depends on its actors and their vision. “We discussed the situation in Syria and the unilateral coercive measures imposed by Washington in the region,” she said. “.

“There are major battles being waged by the Syrian state, Russia and international parties to try to put the world on the right track,” Shaaban said, stressing that “we did not ask for any help because economic cooperation with Russia is going well.”

“After the liberation of most of The Syrian territory, they have turned the war from the field into the economy, and there are solutions that we are putting with our allies,” Shaaban said, adding that there are mechanisms, plans and action to confront the siege imposed on the Syrian people.

“The Russian ally is active in every possible area to lift sanctions and open the path to reconstruction in Syria,” she said, adding that she hoped arab and non-Arab countries would participate in reconstruction and “there are active efforts being made in this context.”

Shaaban said that preventing UN experts from participating in the refugee conference reveals the extent of the paradox between the words and actions of the West, stressing in this context that the Syrian government will provide whatever it takes to return Syrian refugees to their
country.

“What the United States is planning is not destiny and people are capable of overcoming Washington’s plans,” she said.

“James Jeffrey’s words and conditions are not worth the ink he used and Syria will not overstate its sovereignty,” she said, stressing that no one decides for Damascus how it should have its relationship with Iran, Hezbollah and the Palestinian resistance.

On the Biden administration’s policy, she said her country is looking forward to what the new U.S. administration’s policy will be, and most importantly, according to Shaban, “the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Syria.”

“We don’t expect much from the new administration because our region has suffered from the Democratic and Republican administrations,” Shaaban said, adding that the relationship between Syria and Russia is different from that of some countries with the United States.

“Russia cannot ask Damascus to remove Iran or Hezbollah from its territory, which is totally unthinkable,” she said.

As for U.S. and European pressure on the upcoming elections, Shaaban said, “It doesn’t concern us.”

She called on Kelly Kraft to “truly recognize Resolution 2254, which contradicts her country’s occupation of our territories.”

She also considered that delegations coming from abroad to participate in the work of the Constitutional Committee “reflect their references and masters, and do not reflect the interests of the Syrian people but of outside interests, and that is why the work of the Constitutional Committee is slow.”

Shaaban: There is no confidence in what Erdogan can do, and she noted that Russia expects Turkey to continue withdrawing its troops from the points agreed between Putin and Erdogan, adding that “there is no confidence in what Erdogan can do, but we are following what is going on the ground.”

According to her, some points were agreed with Qasd on the country’s flag, unity and territorial integrity, but they did not sign the agreement, stressing that some of Qsed’s forces are dependent on the American will and the dispute between Qasd and Turkey is a struggle over the looting of the land.

“What is happening in the Arab world is not in the interest of the countries that have been printed with the Zionist enemy,” she said, adding that “the will of the Arab people is still alive in order to create a better future and the will of the West is not destiny,” stressing that “there is no choice but to stick to the Palestinian cause and our occupied territories.”

بين إرسال “قاذفة” وإعلان سحب القوات.. ما هي رسائل إدارة ترامب للمنطقة؟

الساعدي: واشنطن لن تستطيع التغطية على رد إيران على أي عمل عسكري أميركي ضدها

المصدر: الميادين نت

22 تشرين ثاني

الخبير في الشؤون السياسية والعسكرية أمير الساعدي، يقول للميادين إن “ترامب لا يمكن أن يتجاوز الكونغرس لاتخاذ أي قرار بالحرب”، ورئيس تحرير جريدة “رأي اليوم” عبد الباري عطوان، يشير إلى أن “ترامب يريد عرقلة عودة بايدن إلى الاتفاق النووي”.

تستمر إدارة الرئيس الأميركي الحالي دونالد ترامب حتى في آخر أيامها في بعث الرسائل المتناقضة، وفيما أعلنت عن قرار خفض عديد قواتها في المنطقة، ترسل قاذفاتها الاستراتيجية.

وانطلق طاقم العمل الجوي لطائرة (B-52H) “ستراتوفورتريس” في 21 تشرين الثاني/نوفمبر، من قاعدة جوية في ولاية نورث داكوتا، إلى الشرق الأوسط.

ووصفت القيادة المركزية للجيش الأميركي في بيان اليوم السبت، مهمة الطائرة بـ “الطويلة”، مشيرةً إلى أن هدفها “ردع العدوان وطمأنة شركاء وحلفاء الولايات المتحدة”. 

كما أوضحت القيادة المركزية أن “الولايات المتحدة لا تسعى لإحداث أي صراع، لكنها لا تزال ملتزمة بالاستجابة لأي طارئ حول العالم”، مشددةً على “التزامها بالحفاظ على حرية الملاحة والتبادل التجاري في جميع أنحاء المنطقة وحمايتها”.

وحيال قرارات الإدارة الأميركية الأخيرة، قال الخبير في الشؤون السياسية والعسكرية أمير الساعدي، للميادين إن “إرسال (بي 52) إلى المنطقة استعراض من إدارة ترامب الذي يحاول إذكاء قاعدة الجمهوريين في الداخل”. 

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Why Trump Has Been Unable to End Endless Wars. US Troop Withdrawals from Afghanistan?

By Keith Lamb

Global Research, November 19, 2020

The Times of London reported, on November 16, that Trump’s recent installation of loyalists in top Pentagon jobs is likely to be for the purpose of fulfilling his long-term pledge to bring an end to the U.S.’ “endless wars”. It is expected that Trump will order the withdrawal of 4,500 troops from Afghanistan and so end 19 years of occupation.

There are two prominent objections to Trump’s likely proposal. Firstly, a swift withdrawal of U.S. forces, that would have to take place before January, will bring logistical chaos. However, the daily state of chaos which occupation brings to the lives of millions is barely considered.

Secondly, an “early” withdrawal will disrupt efforts to stabilize Afghanistan. Christopher Miller the current U.S. Acting Defense Secretary sent out a memorandum saying, “we are on the verge of defeating Al Qaida and its associates, but we must avoid our past strategic error of failing to see the fight through to the finish.” A fair point, but if not now then when? Furthermore, who gets to define when a mission is accomplished?

If 19 years of occupation, by the mightiest military force of our modern age, has not led to a suitable conclusion then unlikely will another year make any difference. The fact is the U.S. occupation, of Afghanistan, has been an unmitigated disaster that next to Libya, Syria, and Iraq represents a litany of the greatest human rights violations of the 21st century.

There are now 2.7 million Afghani refugees worldwide while Afghanistan’s GDP per capita stands at a paltry $531. Afghanistan now cultivates over two-thirds of global opium and has 2.4 million opium addicts. Tragically, the U.S. spent $52 billion occupying Afghanistan, in 2019, which is more than twice Afghanistan’s GDP at $20.68 billion.

With the devastating suffering which occupation has brought to the Afghani people, notwithstanding the criticisms of an abrupt exit, Trump’s efforts to bring an end to the occupation of Afghanistan and end U.S. wars are commendable.

In contrast, unlikely will the mild-mannered, but often hawkish, Biden take the same line. While he has not always supported military action he nevertheless believes in the U.S. hegemonic right to use hard force. For example, Biden supported the catastrophic 2003 illegal invasion of Iraq and he pushed for NATO’s expansion eastwards.

However, Trump’s actions, in regards to Afghanistan, may be too little too late. Instead of concentrating on ending U.S. global occupation, he has been busily engaged with a self-destructing economic war with China who could have been a useful ally in ending the Afghanistan quagmire. Why then has President Trump been distracted by China at the expense of fulfilling his pledge to “bring home the troops”?

Trump’s problems stem from being able to recognize the unease of working-class America that arise from both national and transnational capital, i.e. the one-percent, while concurrently being beholden to the propaganda of the one-percent used to control the ninety-nine percent.

For example, Trump, in contrast to previous presidents, captures the zeitgeist of a large section of traditional working-class Americans who serve in the military. It is they who make needless sacrifices, through their blood and taxes, for the service of an elite who care little for their subaltern. However, due to Trump’s billionaire status, and his own willingness to swallow the propaganda fed to the working-man, he has been ideologically crippled.

Firstly, being a billionaire, he has been unable to see that unfettered U.S. capital, both in their national and transnational forms, represents the nucleus of where the U.S.’ primary contradiction emanates from. On one hand, Trump has supported capital with avaricious tax breaks. On the other hand, the military-industrial-complex, that has resisted Trump, is a business itself that feeds on the suffering of never-ending wars.

Secondly, Trump’s rightly sees that the American worker has been disempowered due to U.S. transnational capital shifting production to Asia. However, Trump unfortunately falls into the trap of jingoism by predominantly vilifying China for events beyond China’s own control. China then is as much an innocent party as the American working-class who are taught to hate China.

In addition, Trump, when it suits him, is quick to criticize the disseminating of “fake news” by the U.S. mass-media itself controlled by transnational capital. However, Trump like much of the U.S. working-class has nevertheless been indoctrinated to accept simplistic narratives this mass-media propagates. It is these narratives which justify and distract Americans from their home-grown problems which stem from U.S. class contradictions.

For example, the mass-media’s constant China-bashing, which has been a feature long before Trump’s arrival, along with their support of U.S. foreign interventions work hand in hand. Threats are used to justify war at an ideological level, to the masses, while the war itself is used to achieve the strategic and economic goals of the one-percent.

In addition, foreign threats and wars work to distract Americans from their own deep-state’s machinations. This in turn drums up a national fanaticism that provides an “emasculated” working-class with a masculinized American identity linked to the U.S.’ global supremacy and “righteous wars”. Trump, of course more than any other president, has tapped into this masculinized American “tough man” image.

While the existence of a corporate media, along with deep-state interests, negate U.S. democracy and make the country ungovernable for the ordinary citizen, it is, these same external influences which form the “embodying features” of Trump who being from the swamp has been unable to extradite himself from the swamp.

Thus, the very quagmire that is U.S. democracy and that is Trump is also the quagmire of Afghanistan today. Regrettably, transnational capital, who Trump calls the globalists, has played Trump well throughout his presidency. As such, unless serendipity allows the U.S. to withdraw from Afghanistan, in the next two months, Biden, who cannot be accused of being ideologically naïve will be ready to take over the reins from where Bush and Obama left off which is the never-ending journey to war.

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Featured image is from InfoBricsThe original source of this article is Global ResearchCopyright © Keith Lamb, Global Research, 2020

Trump Must Choose Between a Global Ceasefire and America’s Long Lost Wars

التطبيع مأزوم لاهتزاز تغطياته فإلى أين المفرّ؟

د.وفيق إبراهيم

كان متوقعاً ان يرتفع عديد الدول العربية والإسلامية الذاهبة الى التطبيع الكامل مع الكيان الإسرائيلي ليسجل ارقاماً كبيرة بعد مرحلة الانتخابات الرئاسية الأميركية مباشرة.

انتهت هذه الانتخابات الى غير المرتجى منها، لان القائد الأميركي للتطبيع الرئيس الأميركي دونالد ترامب خسرها، محاولاً تفجير الداخل الاجتماعي الأميركي باستثارة العصبيات العرقية والدينية والجهوية والطبقيّة آملاً الدفع نحو فوضى شعبية داخلية، قد تبقيه حسب ما يعتقد رئيساً لمدة اضافية طويلة.

لم يكتف هذا السعار الترامبي بهذا القدر من التوتير، فكلَّف فريقاً من المحامين والقضاة والمتخصصين بدهاليز الانتخابات بتقديم اعتراضات للمحاكم متهماً فيها منافسه الفائز جو بايدن بتزويرها، بمشاركة حزبه الديموقراطية.

إلا أن حظوظ ترامب في هذا المسار باتت في قلب الإفلاس ولن يتأخر طويلاً عن هزيمته لا سيما أن هناك شبه اعتراف سياسي داخلي أميركي بفوز بايدن وإقرار عالمي بذلك.

المسألة إذاً لن تطول أكثر من كانون الثاني المقبل حيث يشهد العالم التسلم والتسليم بين رئيسين أحدهما مهزوم والآخر منتصر، لكنهما لا يختلفان على المشروع المنحصر بتأمين أكبر قدر ممكن من النفوذ الأميركي العالمي، بل يتباينان في الأساليب المعتمدة.

إن تداعيات هذه الأساليب ترمي عادة برذاذها على العالم بأسره، لما للأميركيين من نفوذ عميق، اقتصادي وعسكري وسياسي وثقافي يشمل كافة الدول، لكنه يُمسك بشكل أكثر فاعلية الدول الضعيفة سياسياً والقوية بإمكاناتها الاقتصادية.

واحدة من هذه المناطق هي الدول العربية التي تشكل منذ تأسيسها المصطنع في النصف الاول من القرن العشرين، مجرّد آليات، صنعها الاستعمار البريطاني والفرنسي، لإدارة مناطق تختزن نفطاً وغازاً ومواقع استراتيجية وقدرة على الاستهلاك لأنها لا تصنع شيئاً.

كانت الاستراتيجية الأميركية بالتعامل مع هذه المنطقة تقدم على دعم الأنظمة العربية في وجه شعوبها على اساس الإمساك بالتاريخ ضمن القرون الوسطى، اما على مستوى الخطر الخارجي، فهو غير موجود لأن هذه الأنظمة تشكل حتى اليوم جزءاً من الجيوبولتيك الأميركي الذي لم يتجرأ أحد على مهاجمته في أي من مناطق نفوذه. باستثناء إيران التي تدافع عن نفسها وتحالفاتها في الإقليم لمنع الأميركيين من إلحاقهم بالقرون الوسطى.

هذا الرئيس المهزوم ترامب ذهب بعيداً في أساليبه في المنطقة العربية، مرغماً الإمارات والبحرين والسودان على التطبيع مع «إسرائيل» في إطار خطبة تدريجيّة كانت تضم السعودية وباكستان والمغرب وجزر القمر وقطر وعمان.

هناك سببان يضعان خطة ترامب في حجر زمنيّ قابل للتدمير، الأول هو باكستان التي فاجأ رئيسها عمران خان الأميركيين والسعوديين معاً برفض أي تطبيع لبلاده مع الكيان الإسرائيلي، مؤكداً أن هذا الأمر لا يتحقق إلا بعد إنشاء دولة فلسطينية، وقبول الفلسطينيين بها.

ألا يشكل هذا الموقف صفعة لترامب شخصياً وسياسته المطبقة في الشرق الأوسط، موجّهاً في الوقت نفسه ركلة لكل عرب التطبيع في الإمارات والبحرين والسودان، ومسدداً في العمق ضرباً مبرحاً لأداة الضغط الأساسية في العالم الإسلامي وهي السعودية، التي توزع الرشى والتحشيد من اجل دفع العرب والدول الإسلامية نحو التطبيع.

عمران خان اذاً بطل في زمن محنة، ولأنه استثنائي فلم يُعِرْه الاعلام الغربي أي أهمية مكتفياً بعرض موقفه بشكل موجز وهذا يشمل أيضاً الاعلام العربي، وإعلام المقاومة!!

لجهة السبب الثاني فهو فشل ترامب في الانتخابات الرئاسية، وهذا يعني ظهور أساليب أميركيّة جديدة خاصة بالرئيس بايدن الفائز وحزبه الديموقراطي.

لماذا هذا التغيير في الأساليب الأميركية في الشرق الأوسط العربي أكثر من ضرورة؟

عندما بدأ ترامب رئاسته في 2016، كانت المنطقة العربية، ملتهبة بمئات آلاف الإرهابيين تضرب الدول في المدن والقرى وتحاصر الانظمة السياسية في عواصمها.

لقد ورث ترامب هذه المميزات عن السياسة الأميركية التي دعمت هذا الإرهاب منذ 1990، ووضعت في ذلك التاريخ مشروع الشرق الأوسط الكبير، لذلك استعمل هذه المميزات في خطة فرض التطبيع العربي مع «إسرائيل». لكن ما يجري اليوم أصبح مختلفاً لأن هذا المشروع الأميركي متراجع بشكل كبير، ويتسلم بايدن الحكم في ظل موازنات جديدة في إطار الصراع على القطبية العالمية. فالصين لا تنفك تصعد فيما تُمسك روسيا بمنزلة أقوى قوة عسكرية تقليدية ونووية، هذا بالاضافة إلى أن الاقتصاد الأميركي لا ينفكّ يسجل الخسائر المتصاعدة، بسبب المنافسات الدولية من جهة والكورونا من جهة ثانية، والتي تسببت بضمور كبير في التفاعلات الاقتصاديّة.

هذا يعني أن بايدن متّجه الى تبني أساليب بعيدة عن نهج ترامب القتالي غير المحترف والغوغائي.

فبايدن بحاجة الى التخفيف من الصراعات العسكرية والسياسية لمصلحة جذب عناصر اقتصادية من الخارج بوسعها ترميم اقتصاده الأميركي المتعثر وكبح الصعود الصيني ـ الروسي. بنظام تحالفات جديد يضيف على ما يسيطر عليه الأميركيون حالياً.

هذا يؤشر الى إمكانية أميركية لتعامل جديد مع ايران التي برهنت أنها قوة أساسية في الشرق الأوسط، وذلك لأنها تمسك بالموقع الاستراتيجي ومعظم موارد الثروة والنفوذ السياسي في الإقليم.

فهل هذا ممكن؟

هذا ممكن، إذا توقف الأميركيون عن مسلسل الضغط من أجل التطبيع مع الانسحاب من العراق وسورية وفك الحصار عن إيران.

انها العناوين المقبلة للحوار المفترض الأميركي ـ الإيراني الذي قد يؤدي الى أساليب أميركية جديدة تعمل ايضاً من اجل المصالح الأميركية، الأحادية انما من خلال اساليب مختلفة جذرياً من أساليب البائد ترامب التزاماً فقط بموازنات القوى الجديدة.

Will Biden be the head of restoration and review of major Middle Eastern files? هل يكون بايدن رئيس الترميم ومراجعة الملفات الشرق أوسطية الكبرى؟

Will Biden be the head of restoration and review of major Middle Eastern files?

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Brigadier General Dr. Amin Mohammed Hatit

The world has not known a president who has created in international relations and corrupted the major core files in it, as witnessed with Donald Trump, the current U.S. president, who failed to renew his mandate, and now has to come out of the White House with a praise that regrets his luck and blames those who failed him or betrayed him.

Trump is coming out of power, leaving behind him, as well as from the major international files that have corrupted his tracks, and who are waiting for the parties concerned to intervene in the United States, contrary to the arrogance and insanity of the Trumpi in its circulation, and to put an end to the corruption that caused a terrible imbalance in international relations and caused serious damage to it on more than one level, but the Middle East region has been harmed by Trump’s aggressiveness, greed and madness, a lot of harm that he has inflicted on him in exchange for cash or in kind payments to him. He’s connected to those files on Trump’s back in order to fix what’s been corrupted.

Here… Apart from the issues of armaments, climate, alliances, international relations and the economic, security and political wars that America is waging on more than one level, the files that America is affecting in our region are not the small size of the Syrian and Iraqi situation to the Iranian nuclear file to the deal of the century to the Turkish and Gulf ogres, all of which are hot citizens affected by the decision and the American behavior, which makes us ask the question about the course of the new American policy in those citizens and how will the performance of the new democratic president Joe Biden and the second Catholic reach to Rule in America after John F. Kennedy, and will it be a dramatic coup on Trump’s decisions in these files? Or does the deep American state have other decisions and paths that do not deny the above?

First of all, it should be noted that despite all that has been said and said of the situations or coups that America is witnessing with the change of head of state, it is not to be taken for granted, since the truth seems otherwise. Although the president’s personality is essential in the state, there are standards and controls in the U.S. system that prevent the formation of extreme coup slings and prevent interruptions with the past, so the new president, whoever comes to the White House, finds himself obliged to deal with the legacy of the former departing whatever this legacy is on the basis that the rule “that governing continues” taking into account cases of exceptional anomalies as happened with Trump and his coup decisions. The next president inherits the legacy of the former and treats it as a fait accompli that means America and then works on restoration and correction for development and rarely we see radical coups as Trump did in specificfiles.

Trump has left major files on the Middle East that require decisions from new President Joe Biden to address, reform, or change, raising the question of the new u.S. policy paths to those files with the change in the head of state after the presidential election that prevented Trump from remaining in the White House for four more years. Here, taking into account the principle of continuity of state function, a change may govern the U.S. performance on these files unevenly, a change imposed by the new balance of power, trump’s failure to reach the finals of the file, and Biden’s tendency to restore and correct from the degree to which those files have reached:

1 The war on Syria and the U.S. presence there and in Iraq: Through the stated positions and realities on the ground, we do not expect the Biden administration to take a decision to withdraw from the two countries, and U.S. policy under the new president will be destined for a situation that does not constitute the declaration of defeat of the Arab Spring in them, which is the “spring” he launched The Democrats under Obama’s term, so the two countries will have to deal with a U.S. administration that will try to get the whole country to try to activate the division and fragmentation files, especially since Biden is the owner of the partition project and that his land is slowly forming in the northeastern Euphrates Syria and in the north of Iraq in the Kurdistan region. It is true that the partition decision is not easy to achieve in light of the existing changes on the ground, but it has become a danger that has increased its intensity from what existed, which means that the two countries will not see soon breakthroughs under the Biden administration that will bring them back to normal except by exceptional political and military action with the support of allies, which is urgent and not excluded..

2 «Deal of the century» will be the most likely destination with Biden in power with what will constitute a freeze of negative frequencies on the personal status of both Netanyahu and Mohammed bin Salman where we see that biden’s project to solve the Palestinian issue is based on two-state basis in the form of the “deal of the century”, and this project will return to the forefront taking into account the steps achieved under the deal that has not been implemented what makes it final and not revisitable, as the size ofthe The obstacles to the completion of implementation are now much larger than the size of the pressure to pass it, and therefore we see that the Palestinian issue will enter into a new stage of fanship in which there is no ability to follow up in the deal of the Century Trump and there are not enough opportunities for a radical solution that satisfies the Palestinians, but will register in any case the opponents of the “deal of the century” that they succeeded in first and freeze it later and still hindered them to work in order to abort what has been implemented and prevent the resumption of work.

3. Iran’s nuclear dossier will see an important move toward a re-examination of the U.S. position in it after Trump withdrew America’s signature on the 5+1 solution with Iran and was enshrined in a Security Council resolution. We believe that Iran will enter with the U.S. and other parties in restrictive negotiations in order to develop this agreement after America backs away from Trump’s malicious actions against it..

I think that Biden will return Turkey in general and Erdogan in particular to the seat set by the West for him and will not let him follow his authoritarian and mongol march on the region from Libya to Azerbaijan, passing through Syria, Iraq, Cyprus and Greece, and Erdogan will find himself controlled by Biden’s leadership bringing him back to work, for his advantage, without special Turkish expansionist independent project.

5 Saudi and Gulf illusion and the War of Yemen, Yemen may be at the forefront of america’s review of its policy in the region by Biden, where we do not expect the latter to give additional time to Saudi Arabia to resolve the war of Yemen, a solution that is now in the rule of the impossible, so we believe that the war of Yemen may see its dramatically end in the coming year.

Therefore, we can say that the possible breakthroughs will be witnessed by the Yemeni and Iranian situation, and complications in the Syrian, Iraqi and Palestinian affairs if there is no internal shock supported by external support and control even the restriction of the Gulf and Turkish movement in the region from the American side, but the response remains subject to the decisions of regional and international stakeholders, who will act without a doubt on the basis of the developments drawn by the confrontations internationally and regionally, which dropped the saying that “America is the destiny” doing what it wants and imposes what it wants, America is finished, with the rise of multipolarity.

هل يكون بايدن رئيس الترميم ومراجعة الملفات الشرق أوسطية الكبرى؟

العميد د. أمين محمد حطيط

لم يعرف العالم رئيساً أميركياً أحدث في العلاقات الدولية وأفسد في الملفات الأساسية الكبرى فيها كما شهده مع دونالد ترامب الرئيس الأميركي الحالي، الذي فشل في تجديد ولايته، وبات عليه ان يخرج من البيت الأبيض مذموماً مدحوراً يندب حظه ويلوم من خذله أو خانه.

يخرج ترامب من الحكم مخلفاً وراءه كمّاً من الملفات الدولية الكبرى التي أفسد مساراتها والتي ينتظر الأطراف المعنيون بها تدخلاً أميركياً مغايراً للغطرسة والجنون الترامبي في تداولها، ولوضع حدّ للإفساد الذي أحدث خللاً فظيعاً في العلاقات الدولية وتسبّب بأضرار بالغة فيها على أكثر من صعيد، اما منطقة الشرق الأوسط فقد نالها من عدوانية ترامب وجشعه وجنونه الكثير الكثير من الأذى الذي أنزله فيها مقابل أموال نقدية أو عينية دفعها له من كان مستفيداً من أفعاله السيئة تلك، ولهذا يعوّل من هو على صلة بتلك الملفات على خلف ترامب من أجل أن يصلح ما أفسد فهل يفعل خاصة على صعيد الملفات التي تعنينا مباشرة في المنطقة؟

وهنا… وبعيداً عن قضايا التسلح والمناخ والتحالفات والعلاقات الدولية والحروب الاقتصادية والأمنية والسياسية التي تشنّها أميركا على أكثر من صعيد، فإنّ الملفات التي تؤثر فيها أميركا في منطقتنا ليست بالحجم الصغير من الوضع السوري والعراقي الى الملف النووي الإيراني الى صفقة القرن الى التغوّل التركي والجموح الخليجي وكلها مواطن حامية تتأثر بالقرار والأداء والسلوك الأميركي ما يجعلنا نطرح السؤال حول مسار السياسة الأميركية الجديدة في تلك المواطن وكيف سيكون فيها أداء الرئيس الجديد جو بايدن الديمقراطي المسنّ وثاني كاثوليكي يصل الى الحكم في أميركا بعد جون كنيدي، وهل ستكون انقلابات دراماتيكية على قرارات ترامب في هذه الملفات؟ أم أن للدولة الأميركية العميقة قرارات ومسارات أخرى لا تتنكر لما سبق؟

بداية لا بدّ من التنويه انه رغم كلّ ما قيل ويقال من أوضاع أو حالات انقلابية تشهدها أميركا مع تغيير رأس الدولة هو أمر لا يمكن الاخذ به على إطلاقه، حيث انّ الحقيقة تبدو خلاف ذلك. اذ رغم انّ شخصية الرئيس أساسية في الدولة فإنّ هناك معايير وضوابط في النظام الأميركي تمنع تشكل الحالات الانقلابية الجذرية الحادة وتحول دون إحداث انقطاع مع الماضي، وبالتالي فإنّ الرئيس الجديد أيّاً كان هذا القادم الى البيت الأبيض يجد نفسه ملزماً بالتعامل مع إرث السابق المغادر كيفما كان هذا الإرث على قاعدة «انّ الحكم استمرار» مع الأخذ بعين الاعتبار حالات من الشذوذ الاستثنائي كما حصل مع ترامب وقراراته الانقلابية. فالرئيس القادم يرث تركة السابق ويتعامل معها على أساس أنها أمر واقع يعني أميركا ثم يعمل على الترميم والتصحيح من أجل التطوير وقلما نشهد حالات انقلابية جذرية كما كان يفعل ترامب في ملفات محدّدة.

لقد خلف ترامب ملفات كبرى تعني منطقة الشرق الأوسط وتتطلب قرارات من الرئيس الجديد جو بايدن لمعالجتها تصحيحاً أو ترميماً أو تغييراً، ما يطرح السؤال عن مسارات السياسة الأميركية الجديدة حيال تلك الملفات مع التغيير الحاصل في رأس الدولة بعد الانتخابات الرئاسية التي منعت ترامب من البقاء في البيت الأبيض لأربع سنوات جديدة. وهنا، ومع الاخذ الحتمي بمبدأ استمرارية عمل الدولة فإنّ تغييراً قد يحكم الأداء الأميركي حيال تلك الملفات بشكل متفاوت تغييراً فرضته موازين القوى الجديدة وتعثر ترامب وفشله في الوصول الى نهائيات الملف ونزعة بايدن للترميم والتصحيح انطلاقاً من الدرجة التي وصلت اليها تلك الملفات وفقاً لما يلي:

1

ـ الحرب على سورية والوجود الأميركي فيها وفي العراق: من خلال المواقف المعلنة والوقائع القائمة على الأرض لا نتوقع ان تتخذ إدارة بايدن قراراً بالانسحاب من البلدين، وستكون السياسة الأميركية في ظلّ الرئيس الجديد متجهة لوضع لا يشكل إعلان هزيمة «الربيع العربي» فيهما وهو «الربيع» الذي أطلقه الديمقراطيون في ظلّ ولاية أوباما ولذلك سيكون على البلدين التعامل مع إدارة أميركية ستحاول بعد الفشل في وضع اليد على كامل البلاد ستحاول تفعيل ملفات التقسيم والتجزئة التامة خاصة أنّ بايدن صاحب مشروع التقسيم أصلاً وانّ أرضيته تتشكل رويداً في شمالي شرقي الفرات سورياً وفي الشمال العراقي في إقليم كردستان. وصحيح انّ قرار التقسيم ليس أمراً سهلاً تحقيقه في ظلّ المتغيّرات الميدانية القائمة إلا أنه بات خطراً ارتفعت نسبة شدّته عما كان قائماً ما يعني انّ البلدين لن يشهدا في ظلّ إدارة بايدن انفراجات قريبة تعيدهما الى الوضع الطبيعي إلا بعمل استثنائي سياسي وعسكري يحصل بدعم من الحلفاء وهو أمر بات ملحاً كما انه غير مستبعد.

2

ـ «صفقة القرن» سيكون التجميد فيها هو الوجهة المرجحة مع وجود بايدن في السلطة مع ما سيشكل تجميدها من ترددات سلبية على الوضع الشخصي لكلّ من نتنياهو ومحمد بن سلمان حيث نرى انّ مشروع بايدن لحلّ القضية الفلسطينية قائم على أساس الدولتين في غير صيغة «صفقة القرن»، وسيعود هذا المشروع الى الواجهة أخذاً بعين الاعتبار الخطوات التي تحققت في إطار الصفقة التي لم ينفذ منها ما يجعلها نهائية غير قابلة لإعادة النظر، حيث انّ حجم العوائق لاكتمال التنفيذ بات الآن أكبر بكثير من حجم الضغوط من أجل تمريرها ولهذا نرى انّ القضية الفلسطينية ستدخل في مرحلة مراوحة جديدة لا يكون فيها قدرة على المتابعة في صفقة القرن الترامبية ولا يوجد فرص كافية لحلّ جذري يرضي الفلسطينيين ولكن سيسجل على أيّ حال لمعارضي «صفقة القرن» انهم نجحوا في عرقلتها أولاً وتجميدها لاحقاً ويبقى عليهم العمل من أجل إجهاض ما نفذ منها ومنع استئناف العمل بها.

3

ـ الملف النووي الإيراني. سيشهد هذا الملف تحريكاً مهماً باتجاه إعادة النظر بموقع الولايات المتحدة فيه بعد ان سحب ترامب توقيع أميركا عن الحلّ الذي توصلت اليه مجموعة 5+1 مع إيران وكرّس بقرار من مجلس الأمن. ونعتقد انّ إيران ستدخل مع الأميركي والأطراف الأخرى في مفاوضات مقيّدة من أجل تطوير هذا الاتفاق بعد ان تتراجع أميركا عن إجراءات ترامب الكيدية بحقها. ولا نتصوّر بأنّ أميركا ستعود الى الاتفاق وكان القرار الترامبي لم يقع بل نرى حلاً وسطاً سيحكم الملف تستفيد منه إيران ما سيؤكد مرة أخرى انّ صمود إيران حفظ حقوقها ويثبت انّ سياسة العقوبات الأميركية فشلت في تحقيق الأهداف منها.

4

ـ التغوّل التركي الواسع، سيواجَه بقرارات أميركية جدية تمنع استمراره، واعتقد انّ بايدن سيعيد تركيا عامة وأردوغان بخاصة الى المقعد الذي حدّده الغرب له ولن يدعه يتابع مسيرته التسلطية والتغوّل على المنطقة امتداداً من لبيبا الى أذربيجان مروراً بكلّ من سورية والعراق وقبرص واليونان، وسيجد أردوغان نفسه مع بايدن أنه أمام قيادة تضبطه وتعيده الى العمل لمصلحتها وعنصراً في معسكرها دون أن تترك له المجال لممارسة مشروع تركي توسعي خاص مستقلّ عن الغرب. وهذا سينعكس حتماً على الميدان في كلّ من ليبيا وسورية والعراق وأذربيجان.

5

ـ الوهم السعودي والخليجي وحرب اليمن، قد يكون اليمن في طليعة المستفيدين من مراجعة أميركا لسياستها في المنطقة على يد بايدن، حيث لا نتوقع أن يعطي الأخير وقتاً إضافياً للسعودية لحسم حرب اليمن، وهو حسم بات في حكم المستحيل، لذلك نعتقد انّ حرب اليمن قد تشهد نهاية لها خلال العام المقبل وبشكل دراماتيكي من الوجهة السعودية،

وعليه نستطيع ان نقول انّ انفراجات مرجحة سيشهدها الوضع اليمني والإيراني، وتعقيدات أو مراوحة في الشأن السوري والعراقي والفلسطيني انْ لم تحدث صدمة داخلية مسندة بدعم خارجي وضبط حتى التقييد للحركة الخليجية والتركية في المنطقة هذا من الجانب الأميركي، أما الردّ فيبقى رهن قرارات المعنيين الإقليميين والدوليين، الذين سيتصرفون بدون شك على أساس المستجدات التي رسمتها المواجهات دولياً وإقليمياً، والتي أسقطت القول بانّ «أميركا هي القدر الذي لا يُردّ» والتي تفعل ما تشاء وتفرض ما تشاء، فأميركا هذه انتهت وانّ عالم القطب الواحد الذي رغبت به غير قائم الآن، في ظلّ وضع باتت ملامح نظامه مؤكدة قائمة على التعددية في المجموعات الاستراتيجية.

فيديوات مرتبطة

The Empire Has Collapsed

October 28, 2020

The Empire Has Collapsed

by Paul Craig Roberts, cross-posted by permission

Paul Craig Roberts

The Saker has written another interesting article in which he gives us the date of the collapse of the AngloZionist or American Empire:  January 3, 2020, the day when Washington did not retaliate against Iran for Iran’s retaliation against Washington for murdering General Qasem Soleimani.

You can read The Saker’s case and make up your mind:  https://thesaker.is/when-exactly-did-the-anglozionist-empire-collapse/

An equally good case could be made that the American Empire collapsed on September 11, 2001.  This was the day that two symbols of American power—the World Trade Center and the Pentagon—were successfully attacked, according to the US government itself, by an old and dying Osama bin Laden and a handful of Saudi Arabians armed with box cutters.  This unlikely group was able, according to Washington, to overcome the entire intelligence networks of the United States, NATO, and Israel’s Mossad, and deliver the most humiliating blow ever suffered by a ruling Superpower.

It was the day when nothing in the National Security State worked.  US Airport Security failed four times on the same morning, allowing four US airliners to be hijacked. The US Air Force was unable to put fighters in the air to intercept the hijacked airliners, and two of them were flown into the World Trade Center towers and one into the Pentagon itself, while the Great Superpower was unable to defend itself from an old man in a cave in Afghanistan and a handful of young Saudis.

September 11, 2001, was the day that the world realized that the emperor had no clothes.  If Osama bin Laden and a handful of Saudis could defeat the United States, anyone could.

I think The Saker is wrong about Donald Trump. Trump wanted to save American influence by ceasing its fruitless attempts to impose hegemony on the world.  Trump wanted to bring the US soldiers home from the Middle East and to normalize relations with Russia.  This was a major threat to the power and budget of the military/security complex and to the zionist neoconservatives’ desire to use American military power to make the Middle East into Greater Israel.  If 9/11 did not end the American empire, the attack on President Trump from within the government did.  The internal demonization of the American president called to mind the internal conflicts that destroyed the Roman Empire.

I agree with The Saker that the Empire is finished.  Even if Trump wins and manages to be inaugurated, what can he do?  He faces the same powerful forces that stymied his first term. If the crook Biden and the anti-white racist Kamala win, The Camp of the Saints will continue to unfold in the US as the majority white population is demonized, its memorials and history erased, and its power exterminated.

No white American will fight for a government that has demonized him, torn down his statues,  and erased his people’s history.  An army of feminists, transgendered, Hispanic immigrants, disaffected blacks, and displaced Muslims will not fare well against Russian, Chinese, and Iranian forces.  Such a collection is not imbued with pride of country, a requirement for a fighting force.

More than the empire is dead. The country itself is dead.

Trump is trying to resurrect America, but are the people too far gone to respond?  We will soon know.

When exactly did the AngloZionist Empire collapse?

“”the exact moment when the Empire collapsed: 8 January 2020. What happened that day? Following the murder of Major General Qasem Soleimani in a US drone attack (on the 3 of January 2020) the Iranians retaliated by using missiles to attack several US bases in Iraq.” The Saker

ٍSource

When exactly did the AngloZionist Empire collapse?

[this analysis was written for the Unz Review]

I remember one evening in distant 1991, I was sitting with a few friends in the SAIS cafeteria discussing the future of the United States with a few very smart students, including a Pakistani Army Colonel, a US captain who served on aircraft carriers and a Spanish diplomat: we all agreed that “the system” was perfect, so to speak, and that the US would only collapse if a strong external shock would hit it hard. We all agreed that the combination of the best propaganda machine in history, the stupidification resulting from many daily hours of watching the Idiot Tube and, finally, a very effective repression apparatus made for a quasi perfect dictatorship: the one which only gives the illusion of democracy and people power.

Years later, in 2017, I read by J.M. Greer’s brilliant book “Twilight’s Last Gleaming” which I later reviewed here. I would say that this book is one of the best one written on the topic of a future US collapse, even though this is a (very well written) fiction book because it brilliantly illustrates the kind of mindset which can get a supposed superpower in a very bad situation.

To me, this all made perfect sense, but only because I, and my SAIS friends, never even considered the possibility that the US Nomenklatura would commit national suicide and, in the process, bring down the AngloZionist Empire.

Yet this is exactly what happened.

So when did all this begin?

There are many possible answers to this question. Some say with the murder of Kennedy. Others point to Clinton, whose Presidency inaugurated a policy of armed imperialism all over the planet; this administration was also the first one to witness a major “coming out” of the Neocons (many of which had already infiltrated the GOP during Reagan). Then there is 9/11 with the subsequent GWOT. As I said, these are all valid candidates, and there are many more.

My personal view is that the main initiation of collapse was under Barack Obama, a truly exceptionally weak President who would have made an absolutely terrific used cars salesman, but who as a President lost control of his own country and even his own administration. It was under Obama that we saw the vacuum at the top resulting in various agencies (DoS, DoD, CIA, Pentagon, etc.) all developing their own “foreign policies” which resulted in total chaos on the foreign policy front. Needless to say, having harpies such as Hillary Clinton or Susan Rice or Samantha Power involved did not help!

What is it with western women which makes them become even more bellicose than men when they reach a position of power?! Looking at women like Thatcher or Hillary, I wonder if these women are not carefully selected precisely for their nasty character and need to prove themselves as “equal” to men by being even more nasty and murderous than male politicians…

Since his election, it has become very popular to blame Donald Trump for everything which went wrong under his Presidency and, indeed, there is much which ought to be blamed on him. But what so many people overlook is that almost everything which went wrong under Trump began with Obama! When Trumps says that he inherited an awful mess, he is absolutely correct. Not that this absolves him from his own contribution to chaos and collapse!

And, in truth, the biggest difference between Obama and Trump, is that Trump did not start any real wars. Yes, he did threaten a lot of countries with military attacks (itself a crime under international law), but he never actually gave the go ahead to meaningfully attack (he only tried some highly symbolic and totally ineffective strikes in Syria). I repeat – the man was one of the very few US Presidents who did not commit the crime of aggression, the highest possible crime under international law, above crimes against humanity or even genocide, because the crime of aggression “contains within itself the accumulated evil”, to use the words words of the chief US prosecutor at Nuremberg and Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States, Robert H. Jackson. I submit that just for this reason alone any decent person should choose him over Biden (who himself is just a front for “President” Harris and a puppet of the Clinton gang). Either that, or don’t vote at all if your conscience does not allow you to vote for Trump. But voting Biden is unthinkable for any honest person, at least in my humble opinion.

In the Trump years something absolutely amazing happened: while Trump and his administration were busy destroying the Empire externally, the Dems put all the energy and resources into destroying Trump. However, to paraphrase a quote by the Russian author Zinoviev, “they targeted at Trump but they hit the United States” (Zinoviev’s quote was about the putative anti-Soviets: “Метили в коммунизм, а попали в Россию” which can be translated as “they were aiming at Communism, but they hit Russia”).

What took place next was precisely what my SAIS friends and I could never have imagined: the US ruling elites committed collective suicide.

Suicide is typically executed in three phases: decision to commit suicide, the act of suicide itself, and then death. If we accept that the decision to engage in behavior which can only be described as suicidal was taken sometime during the Obama years, then this begs the question of where we are now. In other words, has the Empire already died or is it still only in agony?

I was asking myself that question the other day when I suddenly realized that I might have determined the exact moment when the Empire collapsed: 8 January 2020.

What happened that day?

Following the murder of Major General Qasem Soleimani in a US drone attack (on the 3 of January 2020) the Iranians retaliated by using missiles to attack several US bases in Iraq. According to the US side, there were only minor injuries, which is very likely since the Iranians warned the US by several backdoor channels what they were planning on doing. This argument was used by Trump and his supporters to say that the Iranian reaction was lame, ineffective and could be completely ignored.

In my opinion, the moment when the Trump Administration made this statement is when the death certificate of the Empire was signed. Why?

First, the low number of US casualties (probably higher than the official one, US troops were evacuated and treated in several countries) is due to only to the fact that Iranians are superb strategists: they realized that killing a lot of US soldiers would force Trump to strongly retaliate, so they chose not to kill them. Instead, they put a gun to their collective heads. How?

Think about it: the Iranian counter-strike showed the entire world something which most people did not realize: Iranian missiles (ballistic and cruise) were much more accurate than previously thought. In fact, they clearly have some form of terminal guidance. Simply put, the Iranians have proven that they can very precisely, deliver a warhead of several hundred pounds of high explosives pretty much anywhere in the Middle East. To give you a visual idea of their current coverage check out this page.

This bears repeating: the Iranians have now proven that they can place several hundred pounds of high explosives anywhere in the Middle-East with a CEP of about 3-5 meters!

Remember the Khobar Towers bombing? Yes, this was a truck bomb with much more explosives than a missile can carry (by at least an order of magnitude), but that truck was also parked far away from the towers! Yet just under 500 people died that day.

There are plenty of similar US military installations in the Middle-East, many buildings housing hundreds of US servicemen. Just imagine what would have happened if the Iranians had decided to take out as many lives as possible and placed a couple of their missiles right on top of, say, 10 such facilities – just imagine the cost in lives!

But the Iranians are smart, and they chose a much wiser course of action: they used their missiles essentially to kick Uncle Shmuel where it hurts, but they mainly demonstrated their ability to create thousands of US casualties in just a few minutes.

Obviously, another, now undeniable, Iranian capability is the ability to instantly destroy any gas/oil facility in the region: wells, processing facilities, terminals – you name it: if it is important and expensive, the Iranians can destroy it.

The Iranians also have the ability to close down the Strait of Hormuz and even to attack USN ships, possibly including carriers.

Last, but certainly not least, this now proven Iranian capability puts every government building in danger, along with any crucial facility (Dimona anybody?).

At this point of the conversation all the well-propagandized flag-waving morons will immediately stand up and declare something along these lines:

“So what?! If these sand-niggers cross the line they know that we can massively bomb them! Heck, we can even nuke them and send them back to the stone age! Let them try and they will see what the wrath of the most powerful nation on earth, with the most formidable military in history, can do to a bunch of semi-literate peasants, LOL! Let see if their “Allah” will save them!”

Apart from all the ignorant cliches typically spewed by this crowd, there is a major analytical error underlying this “logic” (I use the term generously): the Iranians have lived with this threat since 1979 and they are used to it. Not only that, but they know for a fact that these are empty threats. Oh sure, the US can do to Iran what “Israel” did to Lebanon in the course of the “Divine Victory” war of 2006, or what NATO has done to Serbia during the Kosovo war (1998-1999): kill civilians and destroy the country’s infrastructure to punish these civilians for supporting the “wrong” (i.e. not US approved) government. But if Uncle Shmuel does to Iran what Israel did to Lebanon, the result will be the same: the Iranians will rebuild (they are very good at that) and they will bounce back twice as strong. As for their martyrs, the more there will be, the stronger the Iranian people’s resistance (check this article written by an Iranian scholar in excellent English explaining the roots of the unique ethos of Shia Islam).

Last, but also not least, the US Presidents and their aides are quite aware of the current state of the US military: it is a military which simply cannot win even simple conflicts, a military hopelessly gutted by insane liberal ideologies, a military whose entire surface fleet has been made obsolete by hypersonic missiles (which the Iranians also seem to be working on!) and a military whose Air Force spent absolutely obscene amounts of money to create a supposedly “5th generation” fighter which in many ways is inferior to US 4th generation aircraft!

This begs the question of what still works in the US military. In my opinion, the US submarine fleet is still very powerful, and the US nuclear deterrence posture is still solid. Other than that? Meh…

Bottom line: the arguments that the US did not retaliate because it did not care, or that it does not care because “we can nuke them” are typically civilian nonsense which have no connection whatsoever to the real world (just imagine the political consequences for the already highly unpopular US following a nuclear strike, especially on a non-nuclear country!)

Okay, but then why did the US not retaliate?

Simply put, because Uncle Shmuel does not have what it takes to take on Iran. Heck, Uncle Shmuel can’t even take on Venezuela (!), which is an extremely weakened country right on the US’s door step. Frankly, if this or the next President decides that the US needs to “pick up a crappy little country and throw it against a wall just to prove we are serious” then I recommend Grenada. I know, Grenada was basically undefended in 1983 (mainly by a few lightly armed Cuban engineers) and it took the 82nd airborne to rescue the totally defeated and clueless US special forces stuck under fire, but I think that since 1983 the Pentagon had the time to make a some “lessons learned” exercises and that by now the US probably could re-invade this tiny island without repeating one of the worst disasters in military history.

Conclusion

The Empire died on the day the Iranians hit these US facilities and the US did absolutely nothing. In fact, since that date, what have we seen:

  • The Iraqis are slowly but surely kicking the US forces out of Iraq
  • The number of attacks against US forces in Iraq has sharply increased, including against the massive US bunker complex known as “the Green Zone” which now is not “green” at all.
  • The Iranians are merrily continuing to make fun of Uncle Shmuel.
  • The US failed at renewing the anti-Iran sanctions at the UN Security Council and Russia has already declared that she is willing to sell S-400s to Iran. You can also count China in this great weapons market.
  • The US is also in retreat in Syria where anti-US attacks are becoming more dangerous (and regular clashes with ground forces of the Russian task force in Syria are also becoming a potentially very dangerous phenomenon).
  • In Yemen, the Iranian backed Houthis have basically won the war and defeated both the KSA and the US.
  • In Afghanistan, the US and its “coalition of the losers” has stayed even longer than the Soviets and has achieved exactly nothing except a total and most humiliating defeat. The contrast between the performance of the Soviet 40th Army (poorly equipped and averagely commanded) force of conscripts and what the lavishly equipped (but also poorly commanded) US professional force achieved is absolutely amazing on all levels, but the most telling is how much the Soviets actually built in Afghanistan (even facilities that the US still uses every day!). Uncle Shmuel only destroyed everything except the opium trade…

In other words, everything is going exactly according to the announced Iranian game plan to completely kick the US out of the Middle-East. I know, this seems unthinkable right now, but please make the list of all the putatively “unthinkable” things which have since happened and you will see how dangerous it is to assume that something will never happen.

When Georgia attacked the Russian peacekeepers in Tskhinval there were also limited casualties, but Russia immediately counter-attacked defeated in Georgian military in 3 days, and that in spite of being numerically smaller (at least in the initial phases of the counter-attack) and too slow to react (a typical Russian weakness). And the message to “to whom it may concern” sent by the Russian counter-attack was simple: attack a Russian base, or kill Russian soldiers and you will be killed: every time a Russian serviceman has been killed in Syria the Russians retaliate with strong missiles and air strikes. In other instances Russian Spetsnaz units killed selective Takfiri commanders. And everybody “got it”, even the Turks who have not been able to force the Russian to stop shrinking their areas of control in Syria to a small fraction of what it used to be.

Mind you – Russia has no desire to become an Empire or even some kind of superpower (Russians realize how evil any empire is for the country which is supposed to host it: they suffered for over 300 years in this toxic status of “empire” and they had enough! Only dumb Hillary and even dumber Brzezinski still thought that Russia wanted to “rebuild the USSR” when, in fact, Putin’s policies were designed to disengage and separate from the former Russian periphery which only drained immense Russian ressources and never gave Russia anything useful (and nevermind the Warsaw Treaty Organization which was just as ressources-consuming and useless as the periphery). All they want is being taken seriously and treated with respect, not as a superpower, but simply as a major, but truly sovereign, power.

Compare that with the unique blend of stratospheric megalomania, narcissistic self-worship and crass ignorance of the leaders of the US and you immediately see that the Empire is not dying anymore, it is already dead and has been dead for many months now.

What comes next?

Well, the election of course. I submit that under no scenario will the next administration be able to reverse that course and somehow miraculously resurrect the Empire. Empires don’t resurrect. It has been tried in the past (even by Napoleon), it never works. Once empires lose momentum and, especially, their ideological credibility, they are over. Oh sure, a dead body still can emit some heat for a while, some organs, or even cells, can work for a while longer, but dead is dead. Mostly dead bodies bloat and stink, which also applies to dead empires.

This is not to say that the outcome will not matter, it will – but only for the future of the United States themselves. Simply put, the upcoming vote is either a vote for upholding law and order in the US, or for total nihilism. On a deeper level, it is a vote for the US or against it: the Dems all hate this country and its “deplorables”; they also hate almost every aspect of US history (overturned statues are but symbols of this hatred) and they hate what they call “a racist system” in spite of the fact that the real causes of racial tensions in the US have very little to do with the “system” and everything to do with the unique problems of blacks in a culture with mainly European roots.

The Empire is dead. And I hope and believe that its death will mark the rebirth of the United States as a “normal” country (which is what happened to all the other former empires).

Until that happens, we can now at least rest assured that this amazingly evil Empire has finally died, even if very few noticed this.

P.S. While writing this column my thoughts turned to Major General Qasem Soleimani, who was cowardly murdered (he was on a diplomatic mission) by Trump. I imagined what he would have said if somebody had offered him the following deal: Haj Qasem – would you agree to be murdered by the modern Crusaders if your martyrdom would turn out to be the “straw” which will break the Empire’s “camel” back? I think that he would reply with tears of joy in his eyes “Glory be to God for allowing me this immense honor and joy and for allowing me to become a shadid (God’s witness)!” Soleimani was a soldier, the real thing, not a disguised businessman or politician, and he knew that he could die literally every moment of his life. He died as a general in charge of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and of its elite Quds Force. It sure looks to me that Trump in his ignorant arrogance gave Soleimani the best death he could have wished for. May this great man rest in peace!

الحريريّة السياسيّة نحو نموذج جديد؟

د. وفيق إبراهيم

رئيس الحكومة السابق سعد الحريري في حركة سياسية جديدة، وضاغطة يستأنف فيها نشاطه السياسيّ الأوليّ بعد سبات له أسبابه الخارجية، يريد العودة إلى رئاسة الحكومة على متن سياسات فرنسية خارجية تمهد له تأييد التغطيات الخارجية للبنان المتجسدة في الأميركيين والإيرانيين وآل سعود.

هذا يضع مستقبل المعادلة التي بناها والده رفيق الحريري في إطار معادلة جديدة تتأسس على نمط جديد من العمل في المعادلة السياسية اللبنانية.

فرفيق الحريري استثمر منذ بداية مشروعه في معادلة ثلاثية سعودية أميركية وسورية أصبحت إيرانية بعد انسحاب الجيش السوري من لبنان في 2005 وكان يريد الإمساك بكامل لبنان السياسي من خلال تطويع القادة السياسيين للطوائف ومرجعياتهم الدينية.

هذا يؤكد انه كان يعمل على إلحاق كامل لبنان في إطار حريرية سياسية مدعومة دولياً وإقليمياً.

هذا لا ينفي نجاح رفيق الحريري في كسب الجمهور الأكبر في الطائفة السنية بل معظمها، لكنه لم يذهب ناحية التحريض المذهبي او الطائفي بل للتأكيد على مرجعيته الداخلية انطلاقاً من طرابلس وبيروت، وذلك لمنع أي اختراقات سنيّة قد تعرقل أدواره اللبنانية.

لذلك حاول المرحوم رفيق الحريري الاستفادة من المشروع الأميركي الذي بدأ بالحركة منذ 1990 بعد عام فقط على انهيار الاتحاد السوفياتي، معتبراً أن المنطقة ذاهبة نحو سلام مع «اسرائيل»، فراهن عليها معتقداً بإمكانية أداء دور سياسي كبير في الداخل السوري.

يتضح أن مشروع الرئيس السابق رفيق الحريري ذهب نحو الإمساك بكامل الطوائف مراهناً على ولاءاتها الغربية من جهة وانتهاء أدوار حزب الله من جهة ثانية، وارتباط زعاماتها بتمويل أحزابهم من الوظائف في الادارات والمال العام من جهة ثالثة.

هذه مداميك مرحلة الحريري الأب فماذا عن معادلة نجله سعد؟

الاختلاف كبير لسببين مركزيين: التبدل الذي حدث في المشهد الإقليمي شاملاً موازنات القوى فيه وصعود أدوار حزب الله وتحالفاته في الداخل اللبناني، وما كان ممكناً في زمن «الرفيق» أصبح متعذراً في مرحلة ابنه او المنتمين اليه سياسياً مثل السنيورة وسلام والميقاتي.

إقليمياً تعرض المشروع الاقليمي الاميركي لإخفاقات بنيوية في اليمن وسورية والعراق، ومنيت «اسرائيل» بهزيمتين بين الألفين وألفين وستة وسقط المشروع الإرهابي بالقضاء على دولة خلافة كادت أن تتحقق على اراضٍ سورية وعراقية.

ما استتبع صعوداً اضافياً لحزب الله باعتباره جزءاً اساسياً من المنتصرين عسكرياً.

هذا هو الفارق بين الشيخ رفيق الذي أتى الى لبنان بمشروع اميركي مقبل على المنطقة وبين الشيخ سعد الذي يحاول إعادة «قولبة» مشروع ابيه و»دوزنته» ليتلاءم مع الموازنات الجديدة، وعصر الانسحاب الاميركي القريب من الشرق الاوسط.

لذلك فهو مضطر لهذه الهندسة الجديدة على أساس أن الدور السعودي الكبير يتراجع بسرعة.

الأمر الذي اضطره لاستعمال الدور الفرنسي الطموح وقدرته على إعادة كسب السياسة السعوديّة الى جانبه.

داخلياً يعرف الشيخ سعد أن مشروع أبيه بالسيطرة على كامل طوائف لبنان من خلال الإمساك بالكاردينال صفير ووليد جنبلاط والعلاقات العميقة مع الرئيس بري. هذه مرحلة انتهت لمصلحة تأسيس دفاعات خاصة بكل مذهب، وله رئيسه ومعادلته الحزبية او السياسية بما يؤكد أن على الشيخ سعد العودة بقوة الى الملاذ السنيّ والسيطرة عليه. فبذلك يستطيع الإمساك الدائم برئاسة الحكومة عبر وسيلتين: سيطرته على المركز الأوسع والأكبر في السنية السياسية في لبنان وإقرار مبدأ عرفي يقضي بتسلم القوى السياسية الأكبر في كل مذهب للمواقع الدستورية الخاصة بها في رئاسات الجمهورية والنواب والحكومة.

لإنجاح هذه الطريقة، المطلوب من الشيخ سعد العودة الى اسلوب التحشيد المذهبي بالتحريض السياسي على قيادات من مذاهب وطوائف اخرى، والعودة الى أسلوب توزيع المكرمات والنجدات عند الأزمات. وهذا ما يجري تطبيقه حالياً من قبل الشيخ سعد ومعظم قيادات الطوائف والمذاهب اللبنانية الأخرى ومن دون استثناء.

يتضح أن الحريرية السياسية انتقلت نهائياً من معادلة كانت تعمل على الإمساك بكامل لبنان السياسي الطوائفي الى مستوى التموضع في إطار مذهبها السنيّ واستخدامه لتحقيق مكانة تقليديّة على غرار صائب سلام وتقي الدين الصلح وأمين الحافظ وآخرين.

هذا هو سعد الحريري الجديد بجولته على رؤساء البلاد وقادة الأحزاب بمواكبة العودة الى تجميع قادة الأحياء والعائلات في صيدا وبيروت وطرابلس وعكار والبقاع الغربي وإقليم الخروب.

لذلك فإن زمن سعد الحريري هو مثابة مدد لنظام طائفيّ كان منهكاً وعلى وشك الانهيار، فتأتي المرحلة الجديدة لإعادة نصب الحواجز المذهبيّة بما يوفر دعماً كبيراً لنظام 1948 و1990 – 2020 وتمديد عمر سياسيّ لطائفية يعمل كامل الوسط السياسي الحالي على تعميقها في المجتمع اللبناني لتحقيق مصالحهم وسياساتهم.

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Iran Preparing to Unveil New Chopper, Drone and Missile-Laden Warship Capable of Reaching US Coast

13:26 GMT 10.10.2020

In this Feb. 21, 2010 photo, two clerics stand at left as Iran's Jamaran guided-missile destroyer and navy members prepare for an exercise in the Persian Gulf, along the coast of Iran.

by Ilya Tsukanov

The Islamic Republic Navy’s fleet of surface warships includes vessels ranging from small patrol boats and corvettes to Moudge-class frigates. Over the last decade, Iranian ships have made port visits to countries ranging from Syria and South Africa to China. But Tehran has yet to make good on plans to send its ships to the Western Hemisphere.

Iran is preparing to unveil a new warship capable of circumnavigating the globe three times over without refueling, enabling it to reach any point on the planet and giving Tehran a tit-for-tat capability to respond to the deployment of US warships off Iran’s coast.

Speaking to Iranian media on Saturday, Iranian Navy Commander Rear Admiral Hossein Khanzadi revealed that the auxiliary ship, named the ‘Persian Gulf’, will be equipped with a range of weapons systems, including missiles, drones and helicopters.

The ship is expected to be formally unveiled sometime between November 21 and December 20.

According to Khanzadi, the Persian Gulf’s deployment will help ensure “defence and security stability” in the region and beyond.

The commander did not provide any more details about the Persian Gulf’s characteristics or capabilities. Last month however, he announced that the Navy would soon unveil a 231-meter-long dock ship capable of carrying up to seven choppers, as well as drones, missiles and electronic warfare equipment. It’s not clear whether the ‘Persian Gulf’ and this new dock ship are one and the same vessel.

Iran will mark Navy Day on November 28. This year, the force is expected to take delivery of several new warships, including the Dena Moudge-class frigate, the Saba minesweeper and a new class of missile boats.

Khanzadi did not specify where his force’s new ultra-long range vessel might be deployed. In recent years, Iranian warships have made port visits throughout the Middle East, East Asia and the east coast of Africa, and have taken part in anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden against Somali pirates. However, despite repeated talk of plans to sail ships further west into the Atlantic Ocean and the Western Hemisphere, Tehran has yet to do so.

Guided-missile destroyer USS William P. Lawrence (DDG 110)

© WIKIPEDIA / U.S. NAVY

US Sails Warship Off Venezuela’s Coastal Waters Citing Treaty Washington Itself Hasn’t Ratified

This spring, Iran did send civilian tanker ships filled with fuel, food and supplies to sanctions-starved Venezuela, with the latest flotilla arriving in the Latin American country in late September.

Tehran has also repeatedly urged the US to stop deploying its warships in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East generally, proposing that regional powers take care of the region’s security instead. In 2019, at the UN, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani proposed the creation of a ‘Coalition of Hope’ including all nations which border on the Persian Gulf.

Late last month, after the US parked a carrier strike group in the Persian Gulf, Rouhani accused US forces in the Middle East of undermining regional stability and security, and called on all nations in the region where American troops are based to make a concerted effort to expel them.

Related

Why the Middle East “peace agreements” will fail to achieve their purpose

Why the Middle East “peace agreements” will fail to achieve their purpose

September 25, 2020

By Aram Mirzaei for the Saker blog

This week, a third Arab country has reportedly agreed to submit to Washington’s pressure to normalize relations with the Zionist state. This was very much expected and I’m sure it didn’t catch most observers by surprise. In the end, I expect most of the shameful Arab League to submit since it is known that most of them have had secret dealings with the Zionist state since many years, if not decades ago. So why come out of the closet now? What is the purpose of these “peace agreements?”

Personal I find it rather humorous that they are calling these deals “peace agreements” since peace agreements are signed by countries who have been at war, not long-standing allies who have never fired a single bullet towards each other. But the purpose of these deals are unfortunately not to make us laugh, but to intimidate.

Washington has realized that it cannot remain in the Middle East for ever. This is not because the Islamic Republic of Iran has vowed to expel them, but because reality has finally caught up to them. They are hated in this region, every act of terror that they commit against the people of this region, be it through sanctions or bombs- will attract more support for the Resistance Axis, the only force that truly fights them in the Middle East.

Moreover, their own people have grown tired of these constant wars and acts of terror overseas, and with a 22 trillion dollar debt, their economy is no longer what it used to be. On top of that, they’ve been humiliated by their own allies on the world stage, who refuse to re-impose sanctions and embargoes on the Islamic Republic – despite the constant threats issued by the likes of Mike Pompeo.

Taking a step back from its traditional role of lead terrorizer of the world is also an outspoken foreign policy issue for US President Donald Trump. Trump has on many occasions made it clear that he considers many of Washington’s allies to be “free-riding” on Washington’s “generosity”. He has repeatedly told his NATO allies that they “must pay” for Washington’s supposed protection. The same has been said about Washington’s Persian Gulf vassals. I know some people would say these statements by Trump are just excuses to redeploy US troops closer to Russia and China, but if we play with the idea that Trump perhaps isn’t the 5-dimensional chess player that some believe him to be, I would say this:

Trump has been an outspoken critic of Washington’s role in the Middle East. He even admitted himself that Washington has killed “hundreds of thousands of people in the Middle East” and that “the single greatest mistake we ever made was to go to the Middle East”.

So this takes us back to the so called “peace agreements”. Both the timing and the way they were presented by the media gives us many clues as to what Washington’s intentions are. Western diplomats, think tanks and journalists have been quick to call the “peace agreements” a “nightmare for Iran” and a “a major geo-strategic shift in the region”. Brian Hook, the former US State Department’s lead official on Iran, said the “agreement amounted to a ‘nightmare’ for Iran in its efforts against Israel in the region.” But why? What is their reasoning?

At first glance, if one were to follow the Western narrative, it would seem that Washington’s allies have all united against the Islamic Republic and now stand to offer a collective deterrence against Iran. But anyone who has even the slightest knowledge of Middle Eastern politics would reach the same conclusions that were stated above – peace agreements are signed by countries who have been at war, not long-standing allies who have never fired a single bullet towards each other.

Of course the timing for President Trump is also perfect. A few months before the US elections, he presents his own version of the Camp David Accords, which resulted in the normalization of relations between Israel and Egypt in 1978. He will certainly portray this as a great political victory for him at home.

But what Washington is really doing is merely posturing. This is what they’ve been doing for over 4 decades against the Islamic Republic. For Washington this will be a great way to exit the region without being thrown out and without compromising Israel’s security. But they’re not kidding themselves, they know that nothing has changed and that this is just more of a PR stunt than it is a “diplomatic coup”. Let’s be honest, no country will ever fear Bahrain or the UAE, and Washington knows this. Collectively the Arab League’s military forces would offer little resistance in a regional war against the Resistance Axis. These are the same Arab League armies that cannot even defeat the Houthis in Yemen despite massive Western assistance. Not only are they extremely incompetent, as proven on multiple occasions in Yemen where the Saudi Air Force has bombed their own forces on the ground, but they are also cowards, again proven in Yemen where Saudi forces have been filmed abandoning their superior US-made vehicles and running away from the field of battle.

It would seem that Washington’s eventual withdrawal from the Middle East is to the detriment of Israel’s interests rather than to the benefit. Unless of course we forget that Israel possesses nuclear weapons and that it probably won’t be long before the US and Israel will arm Saudi Arabia with Nuclear Weapons to target Iran. But still, the secret dealings between Israel and “some Arab states” as Zionist Chieftain Benjamin Netanyahu said years ago, the not-so-secret Israeli Nuclear Weapons arsenal and the fact that Washington’s potential “taking a step back” policy does not really mean that it wouldn’t come to the aid of Israel in a matter of minutes, don’t really strike anyone in the region as “shocking news”.

So what have these “Peace Agreements” really shown us? Nothing really. We all knew this day would come eventually. They were cautious when they sent the UAE and Bahrain out of the closet first, dipping their toes into the water to see the reaction of the people in the region. Seeing how the Arab league and most other countries didn’t really react with outrage, they are now sending more countries to step out and admit their shameful alliance with Israel. Really, the only thing that the Gulf monarchies have achieved is to write their own names into the history books as the shameful allies of a terrorist state. We have yet to see [at the time of writing 2020-09-25] which country will be the “third Arab state” to sign the agreement with the Zionist state, but it matters not, camps were chosen long ago despite not having been declared officially by some countries.

My bets are on Morocco by the way.

تقليص أجنحة الإمارات يجمع إيران وتركيا

تقليص أجنحة الإمارات يجمع إيران وتركيا - ميدل ايست نيوز بالعربي

عباس بوصفوان

الخميس 17 أيلول 2020

أتقنت الإمارات، على نحو لم يحدث من قبل، تجميع خصوم أشدّاء ضدها، يملكون مشروعاً وطنياً يرتكز على القومية، والإسلام، والتاريخ المديد المتعدد الطبقات، وسردية دستورية تستند إلى بُعدَي الجمهورية (البعد الشعبي والانتخابات، على علاتها) والدين في شكله الشيعي أو السني، وعقيدة سياسية ذات قوام ناعم قابلة للنمذجة والتصدير والجذب، وموقعاً استراتيجياً، وغنى ثقافياً، وعدداً سكانياً ضخماً، وقوة اقتصادية ذاتية، وعتاداً عسكرياً يحسب له ألف حساب، وحلفاء عقائديين، وحضوراً عالمياً… وكذا تحديات جمّة تجعل من الإمارات الصغيرة غير قادرة على إزعاج النّمرين الآسيويين الصاعدين.

أهداف طهران وتركيا

يبدو أن ما يشغل طهران وأنقرة، بعد التطبيع الإماراتي مع الاحتلال الإسرائيلي، ليس الدخول مع الإمارة الصغيرة الطموحة في حرب ساخنة، فذاك ما تكرهه إيران، التي تجيد القيادة من الخلف. وهو أمر تعلّمته تركيا، في ما يبدو، في تدخلها المثير للجدل في ليبيا، لكن «المتوازن» إن صح القول مقارنة بتدخلها الفج والقبيح والدموي في سوريا.
الأرجح أن الدولتين المسلمتين الكبيرتين، ستضعان الخطط الساعية إلى تقليص أجنحة الإمارات، بما يعيد الدولة الخليجية الفتية الغنية إلى ما كانت عليه تقليدياً، من سوق تجارية كبرى، لا خصماً سياسياً متقدماً، ولا موطئ قدم للمخابرات المعادية، ولا منصّة لإطلاق النار، ولا مقراً لتغذية النزاعات الإقليمية، ولا بؤرة للتناحر الإقليمي والدولي، وإن احتفظت لنفسها بموقع المنبر الإعلامي المعادي فذاك من الأمور المتفهمة. ولا شك في أن هذا الموضوع كان في صلب النقاش الإيراني التركي في الاجتماع الذي التأم افتراضياً قبل أيام، ودعا فيه الرئيس روحاني نظيره التركي إردوغان إلى موقف مشترك من التطبيع الإماراتي.

التطبيع إيرانياً وتركياً

تستثمر كل من إيران وتركيا الكثير في القضية الفلسطينية، بعدما أدركت أنقرة أن نفوذ طهران عميق بين فصائل المقاومة، في وقت يظهر فيه الخطاب السعودي – الإماراتي رغبة متزايدة في إسدال الستار على قضية العرب الأولى. بيد أنه يجدر أن نلحظ فارقاً نوعياً بين مقاربة طهران مقارنة بأنقرة في موضوع إسرائيل، ووجودها في المنطقة، وتالياً إرساء علاقات دبلوماسية معها، وخصوصاً في الوقت الراهن، حيث يتنافس محور تركيا – قطر – «الإخوان» من جهة، مع محور السعوديين والإماراتيين والمصريين من جهة أخرى، على كسب ود أميركا، الحاضن الرئيسي للاحتلال. يفرض ذلك على تركيا، التي تملك علاقة دبلوماسية قديمة مع تل أبيب، وقطر التي سبق لها أن استقبلت مكتباً إسرائيلياً في قلب الدوحة، أن لا يظهرا رفضاً مبدئياً لوجود الكيان الإسرائيلي والتطبيع معه.

يحرص المحور التركي على تمييز مساره عن المحور السعودي


يحرص المحور التركي على إبراز معارضته للتطبيع استناداً إلى رفض إسرائيل الإقرار بالحقوق الفلسطينية، كما يحرص على تمييز مساره عن المحور السعودي، المتحالف هو الآخر مع واشنطن. تظهر قناة «الجزيرة»، «توازناً» لافتاً بين مختلف الآراء، فلا تعطي وقتاً أوسع للأصوات المعبرة عن موقف مبدئي للاحتلال، بل تمنح متسعاً عريضاً للمثقفين العرب «المعتدلين»، الداعين إلى تسوية مع إسرائيل تفضي إلى التطبيع، وأولئك الذين يبررون العلاقة معها، حتى من دون تسوية.
السعوديون يسعون، من جهتهم، إلى القول بأنهم أقرب إلى أميركا، بيد أن القطري والتركي نجحا في السنوات الماضية في شد عصب العلاقة مع واشنطن، وحتى واشنطن ترامب، الأقرب إلى السعودي. من ناحيتها، تعتقد إيران وحلفاوها أن المنطقة لن تبلغ مستوى الاستقلال الحقيقي إلا بإخراج القوات الأميركية، التي تتحالف معها تركيا وقطر. أمّا إسرائيل، فهي إيرانياً قاعدة أميركية متقدمة، وجب اجتثاثها، ولمّا كان من الصعب أن تقوم إيران مباشرة بذلك، فإنها تحتضن ما بات يعرف بحركات المقاومة، التي تهدد الكيان وتحشره في الزاوية.

ما الذي أجّج الخلافات؟

ما يجعل الأتراك والإيرانيين يرفعون الصوت عالياً تجاه أبو ظبي، هو مضيّ الأخيرة في رفع عقيرتها إلى درجة إرسال طائرات للمشاركة في مناورات يونانية، موجهة ضد تركيا، والمضيّ – بالمقابل – في إرساء علاقة متينة مع تل أبيب، موجهة ضد طهران. اعتاد الطرفان التركي والإماراتي أن يتصادما في ليبيا وسوريا ومصر، لكن الإمارات تمضي بعيداً حين تنقل الصراع إلى حدود أنقرة، كما على حدود قطر. وطالما اصطدم الإماراتي والإيراني في اليمن ولبنان والعراق والبحرين، لكن إدخال أبو ظبي إسرائيل على خط المواجهة يفرض على طهران تعاملاً مختلفاً.
سمعنا تنديداً من إردوغان وروحاني بالإماراتيين، والتقديرات المرجحة أن أبو ظبي ستضطر، على الأرجح، ولو في هذه الفترة التجريبية، إلى دعوة إسرائيل وأميركا إلى أن لا تحوّلا المدينة التجارية إلى منصة عسكرية موجّهة نحو إيران، بيد أن ذلك لن يطمئن طهران إلا بعد أن تتحول الفرضية إلى واقع، وإلا باتت «المدينة التي من زجاج» هدفاً إيرانياً مشروعاً.
ولا ننسى أن الحصار ضدّ قطر وإيران وتركيا يجمعها ضد الإمارات، التي يعني تحجيمها تحجيم الرياض.

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