What’s behind the US military surge in West Asia?

AUG 16, 2023

Photo Credit: The Cradle

ISIS attacks in Syria and Iraq have declined by 68 percent and 80 percent respectively, per the US military’s own admission. So why is Washington sending, with no legal basis, an additional 6,000 troops into a region that doesn’t want them there?

Robert Inlakesh

In a significant move that sent worrying ripples across West Asia, the US military has discreetly dispatched over 6,000 troops to the region, igniting tensions and triggering debates on regional stability. While the surge of forces into the Red Sea to counter Iran’s actions in the Persian Gulf has garnered attention, the deployment of a substantial US military presence into Iraq and Syria has largely gone under the radar.

On 7 August, a formidable contingent of over 3,000 US sailors and marines entered the Red Sea aboard two imposing warships. This maneuver has been widely interpreted as a response by the US Navy to the alleged seizure of approximately 20 internationally-flagged ships by Iran in the Persian Gulf over the past couple of years.

While the Islamic Republic claims to have seized the tankers under legitimate security grounds and accuses the US of breeding further instability with its troop deployment. Washington maintains that the move will work “to deter destabilizing activity and de-escalate regional tension.”

Weeks before, with much less fanfare, the US military also readied some 2,500 light-infantry troops for deployment to Iraq and Syria in mid-July. According to a report from a local New York media outlet, these soldiers, hailing from the 10th Mountain Division’s 2nd Brigade Combat Team, embarked on their mission after departing from the Fort Drum military base. Their mission, spanning nine months, is to actively engage in Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR), the ongoing US-led anti-ISIS operation across both Iraq and Syria.

Uncertain troop surge 

US President Joe Biden’s administration has said that the US-led combat mission inside Iraq was supposed to have officially ended in December of 2021. In July of that same year, Baghdad and Washington agreed to a plan under which all US combat forces were to be withdrawn from the country by the end of the year. Despite this, combat units continue to be rotated into the country.

Officially, the stated number of US service members currently operating in Iraq is 2,500; there is an unknown number of mercenaries who work for private military contractors. Although it is unclear what proportion of the 2,500 were headed to Iraq and Syria respectively, there is a clear increase in troop presence in both West Asian states. 

The 40th Infantry Division of California’s National Guard also deployed 500 soldiers to Iraq and Syria earlier this year. As recently as 8 August, another batch of soldiers from the 1889th Regional Support group had departed the US, with further deployments likely.

There have been allegations, initially surfacing in the Turkish newspaper Yeni Shafak, that the US will be deploying some 2,500 troops into north-eastern Syria in order to bolster the position of their local partners, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). 

As of yet, there has been no confirmation of such a large troop surge, which would constitute a colossal leap from the publicly-stated 900 US troops acknowledged to be illegally occupying Syrian territory. 

The Iran-Russia-Syria axis 

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War recently published a report on an alleged Iranian-Russian-Syrian plan to force the US out of the country altogether, claiming that “this campaign poses a serious risk to US forces in Syria and US interests in the Middle East (West Asia).” 

It is public knowledge that the US bolstered its forces inside Syria back in March, when it dispatched a squadron of A-10 attack aircraft following a series of lethal strikes against their forces. Washington has complained several times this year about the conduct of Russian fighter pilots in Syrian airspace, while doubling down on its legally groundless claim that US forces have the right to self-defense in sovereign states thousands of miles away. Despite these violations of international law, the US administration has made clear it has no intention of withdrawing from West Asia.

Underpinning the US’s occupation of a significant portion of Syrian territory and its troop presence in Iraq is OIR. Framed within the legal framework of the 1991 and 2002 Authorizations for Use of Military Force (AUMF), which previously served as the basis for the 2003 invasion of Iraq, OIR ostensibly targets ISIS. 

However, Baghdad has repeatedly called for the withdrawal of US forces, most recently on 15 August, with Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani stating that Iraq “no longer needs the presence of foreign combat forces on its soil.”

The 2023 justification for OIR also cites an Iraqi government request dating back to 2014 when ISIS was cutting a swathe through the country’s north. However, this reasoning sidesteps the Iraqi parliament’s 2020 vote demanding full US troop withdrawal, coupled with widespread street protests echoing the same call. 

Beyond ISIS: OIR’s broader strategy

Drawing from data shared by the Combined Joint Task Force (CJTF) Commander Major-General Matthew McFarlane, there has been a remarkable decline in ISIS attacks. According to McFarlane, between January and April, there had been “a record of a 68 percent reduction in [ISIS] attacks when compared to the same period last year” inside Syria. 

In Iraq, there has been an 80 percent decrease in ISIS attacks this year when compared with 2022. As the number of ISIS militant attacks are decreasing exponentially, it would make no sense for the US to increase its troop presence inside Iraq and Syria, unless it was for motives beyond the scope of OIR. 

If the recent naval deployment to the Red Sea was openly retaliation for Iran’s naval activities in the Persian Gulf, then it would make sense that perceived Iranian threats to US interests in Iraq and Syria could merit a similar troop deployment increase. 

Earlier this year, the current Pentagon Chief, Lloyd Austin, made a surprise visit to Baghdad, where he declared that US forces will remain inside Iraq and indicated that this decision is in line with the ongoing fight against ISIS. 

Senior officials within the Biden administration, including Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (DASD) for the Middle East Dana Stroul, have explicitly discussed the need to counter Tehran’s influence in the region. This discourse intertwines with the broader context of OIR, raising suspicions that the operation serves as both a legal pretext and a veiled strategy to contest Iranian and Russian presence in the region. 

Exploiting issues in the Gulf 

To provide context, it is essential to revisit some recent events in northeastern Syria. Following clashes between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), its allies, and US forces, the USS George H.W. Bush, an American aircraft carrier, was repositioned closer to Syria. 

This move, explained Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh, was due to “increased attacks from [Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)]-affiliated groups targeting our service members across Syria.” 

In the Persian Gulf, tensions between Iran and the UAE over the ownership of the Abu Musa islands have provided an opportunity for the US to leverage divisions among neighboring states. While the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Russia advocate for dialogue, Iran maintains its stance on the islands’ non-negotiability. The IRGC’s naval maneuvers have further accentuated the potential for escalating tensions, as the US seeks to exploit discord between Iran and its neighbors.

On the Syrian front, there have also been indications that the al-Qaeda linked militant group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which controls much of the Idlib province, may have signed a deal to unite themselves with the US-backed SDF that helps occupy north-eastern Syria. 

According to Syrian opposition media outlet Syria TV, the US was supportive of the idea of an HTS-SDF union. If this is true, it could indicate that Washington is seeking to unite the three fronts that oppose the government in Damascus: the al-Tanf mercenaries, the SDF in north-eastern Syria, and HTS in Idlib.

US agenda in West Asia 

There are now grounds for questioning the US claim that it is only operating 900 troops in Syria and 2,500 inside Iraq, especially with its new troop deployments. Moreover, by Washington’s own admission, the fight against ISIS has significantly decreased in scope. 

This then begs the question, what is the legality of the recent US troop surge into West Asia, which is increasingly shaping up to be a force to confront Iran and Russia? If Washington’s real target is Tehran and Moscow, does the US government have any legal justification for its stationing of military personnel inside Iraq and Syria, placing US troops at risk over conflicts that have no congressional or popular domestic approval? 

In order to counter an emerging multipolar order and its impact on West Asia, it appears that Washington’s agenda is now set on doubling down on its pre-existing regional objectives. With the advent of the Chinese-brokered rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the heat has been on the US government to accomplish what the Biden administration views as a crowning achievement in the region: Israeli-Saudi normalization. 

Short of this, to maintain the dominance of the collective west over the region, the immediate hurdle is overcoming the influences of Iran and Russia. This is why the occupation of roughly a third of Syrian territory by the US and its proxies, along with the imposition of deadly sanctions on Damascus, has become crucial in undermining the strength of its adversaries. 

By keeping Syria divided and weakening the government of President Bashar al-Assad, the US is able to prevent the restoration of the Syrian state that now falls firmly under the Russian and Iranian spheres of influence. 

Moreover, the recent tentative agreement between Washington and Tehran, which aimed to unlock billions in frozen Iranian assets in exchange for the release of five American prisoners, holds the potential to pave a path toward the revival of discussions to reinstate the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). 

While the US’s ability to secure a renewed nuclear deal with the Islamic Republic could hypothetically create a conducive environment for Saudi-Israeli normalization, the looming specter of a potential Republican victory in the 2024 US elections may cast uncertainty over this prospect.

The use of sanctions, along with hostile intelligence measures and the deployment of troops closer to the Persian Gulf, all signal a US intent to prevent a further diminishment of their role in the region. In the wake of the Ukraine conflict, the White House’s capacity to exert its once-dominant presence in West Asia has encountered challenges, potentially prompting the current assertive stance by the US. 

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of The Cradle.

Iran and Syria Call for End of Western Economic Domination, Withdrawal of All Foreign Troops from the Region

May 04, 2023 

by Peoples Dispatch

Both the countries signed numerous agreements to boost their economic cooperation and called it a joint effort to face the impact of unilateral sanctions imposed by the US and its allies on their economies

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad signed a host of agreements in Damascus. Photo: SANA

The Syrian and Iranian presidents met in Damascus and announced their resolve to work for greater regional stability. They stressed that the withdrawal of all foreign troops from the region was necessary for this purpose. They emphasized that their mutual cooperation in the economic field is intended to be a strategic move to counter the impact of illegal unilateral sanctions imposed by the US and some of its allies.

The countries signed a long-term comprehensive strategic cooperation agreement during the state visit of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to Damascus on Wednesday, May 3. They also signed long-term cooperation agreements in various economic areas such as agriculture, oil, transport, and others. 

Raisi is the first Iranian president to visit the country in the last 13 years. He was accompanied by his foreign, economic, and transport ministers, and the chief of Iran’s central bank.  

After the meeting, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad claimed that the various economic projects agreed upon between Iran and Syria would help “mitigate the impacts of sanctions” and aid in liberating “international economics from Western hegemony.” He also emphasized that both countries agreed that it has been an old colonial tactic to “undermine the stability of countries and divide them.” However, countries in the region need to take advantage of the improving relations to find common grounds for peace and prosperity, Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) reported.  

Regional stability 

Assad was referring to the recent rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran after years of tension and hostility. Following the rapprochement, the peace talks in Yemen have made headway. Saudi Arabia has also discarded its decade long anti-Syria policy and has taken diplomatic steps to restore Syria’s membership to the Arab League from which it was suspended in 2011.   

He also thanked Raisi for playing a significant role in the ongoing quadripartite meeting in Moscow. The representatives of Russia, Iran, Syria and Turkey participated in the last meeting held on April 25. The forum is primarily discussing ways to normalize relations between Syria and Turkey. Syria has emphasized that its focus is on the withdrawal of all occupying forces from its territory and halting of all international support to terrorism in the country. 

It was with the help of Iran and Russia that the Syrian government was able to restore its control over most of the country’s territory after almost 12 years of war. However, Turkish and US forces still occupy significant parts of territory in Syria’s north-west and east, respectively. Both of them also support different anti-Assad forces in the country.

President Raisi praised the people of Syria for their steadfastness and for withstanding terrorism and international attempts to divide and destroy the country for over a decade. He said, “we [Iran] are in the process of developing our relations with countries of the region and we will seek to expand them without the presence of foreigners.” 

Raisi noted that the presence of foreigners in the region brings conflicts and instability and asked the US forces to leave the region immediately. He emphasized that Syrian sovereignty over all its territory must be respected.   

فلسطين تفرض إيقاعها على ملفات المنطقة

الإثنين 30 كانون الثاني 2023

لم تكن عملية الشهيد البطل خيري علقم مجرد عملية بطولية تضاف إلى سجل عمليات المقاومة الفلسطينية، بقدر ما هي إعلان مرحلة جديدة يقول فيها الفلسطينيون إنهم قادرون على التعامل منفردين مع نتائج وصول اليمين المتطرف إلى الحكم في كيان الاحتلال، وإن التطبيع الذي قامت به حكومات عربية مع الكيان لم يقدم ولم يؤخر في موازين المواجهة مع الكيان، وإن سقوط خيار التفاوض والتسويات لم يدفع الفلسطينيين الى اليأس بل الى المقاومة، وإن المقاومين الأفراد الذين لا ينتمون إلى أي تنظيم فلسطيني يشكلون عماد العمل المقاوم، وهم لا يحتاجون مالاً ولا سلاحاً ولا شكلاً تنظيمياً ولا قيادة.

المسار الفلسطيني الجديد يمتلك أدوات استمراره وتطوّره في ذاته، وهو قادر على النمو والتصاعد في ظل الحصار والاحتلال، بل إن الحصار والتصعيد والقتل أسباب نموه وتصاعده، وبالتوازي لا يبدو أن الكيان قادر على الاستدارة او على التوقف او التراجع، ولذلك تبدو المواجهة الى تصاعد قد يبلغ في مدى أسابيع مرحلة الغليان، خصوصاً مع قدوم شهر رمضان وتقاطعه مع أعياد يحييها المتطرفون الدينيون في الكيان في المسجد الأقصى، الذي ترتفع رمزيته المقدسة مع ليالي رمضان، ما يجعل المواجهات الدموية نتيجة حتمية مقبلة.

ملفات المنطقة الساخنة تقع بين شعوبها وحكوماتها من جهة والإدارة الأميركية من جهة مقابلة، سواء التفاوض على الملف النووي الإيراني أو الصراع في سورية ومعها وعليها، او الاستحقاق الرئاسي في لبنان، أو مستقبل الاحتلال الأميركي في العراق وسورية، او مستقبل الحرب في اليمن، وواشنطن سوف تقيس مواقفها من كل هذه الملفات وفقاً لمقاربة قوامها، أي الخيارات يعرّض أمن كيان الاحتلال لمزيد من الخطر، وأي الخيارات يوفر للكيان حماية أفضل، لذلك قد ترد الحروب الكبرى والتسويات الكبرى من هذا الباب بعدما كانت مستبعدة حتى الأمس القريب.

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‘Israeli’ Regime in Political Collapse: IRG Chief

 June 22, 2022

By Staff, Agencies

Chief Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guard [IRG] Major General Hossein Salami highlighted the downfall of the enemies of Iran, stressing that the Zionist regime is on the verge of political collapse.

Speaking at a cultural conference in Iran’s western city of Shahr-e-Kord on Tuesday, Major General Salami said the enemies of the country are on the decline.

He noted that a review of the news on the political community of the Zionist regime indicates that the ‘Israeli’ entity is experiencing political dissolution.

Major General Salami also pointed to the calamities the Americans are grappling with, saying the US is looking for a graceful escape and cannot remain in the Islamic territories.

“The enemies have become depressed and withered, lack the power to pursue their objectives, are desperately looking for a way to withdraw, and suffer injuries from widespread defeats,” the general stated.

He also highlighted Iran’s growing capabilities, adding that “We will be among the world powers in the near future.”

His comments came after the Zionist regime’s governing coalition announced that it will dissolve parliament, known as the ‘Knesset,’ next week, which means that the government will disband.

The ‘Israeli’ occupation government has been fragile since it first took office over a year ago.

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Deconstructing the Islamic Republic of Iran’s position regarding Russia-Ukraine Crisis

April 09, 2022

Source

by Mansoureh Tajik 

At the outset of Russia’s military operations in Ukraine, the Islamic Republic of Iran’s position and views were clearly spelled out by the Leader, Ayatullah Khamenei, and by the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The crux of Iran’s stance is that the Islamic Republic of Iran does not condone foreign military advancements into any sovereign country by any power due to the fact that death of innocent civilians, destruction of critical civil infrastructures, regional instability, and unpredictable adverse outcomes become inevitable. At the same time, Iran considers the United States to be the main instigator and culprit of the crises in Ukraine. In an earlier article posted on the Saker blog (see here), I quoted Ayatullah Khamenei pointing to some of these concerns:

 “[United States of] America is a mafia regime and Ukraine, too, is a victim of this policy of crisis creation. [United States of] America brought Ukraine to this point by infiltrating into the internal affairs of that country, inciting uprisings against its governments by velvet movements or color revolutions, by presence of US senators in the gatherings of oppositional groups and by creating, toppling this government and replacing it with that government. Naturally, they led to this point. We, of course, are against wars and destruction anywhere. This is our fixed policy.”

This official and transparent stance is clearly devised with full awareness of geopolitical developments and events (both overt and covert) of the past few decades. It is quite evident that key decision makers in Iran neither condone Russia’s military advancement into Ukraine nor do they consider Ukraine to be a genuinely sovereign country free from foreign meddling and interventions.

In fact, we could imagine Ukraine to be just as independent as many other countries in Europe and Asia and the likes of United Arab Emirates, Saudi kingdom, Japan, South Korea, and more. These countries have allowed their respective lands to become stumping grounds for arrogant powers to set up shops to export crime and mischief to their neighbors and beyond. In the shortcomings of their rulers, people cannot be absolved of responsibility.

The Iranians have years of empirical evidence and first-hand field experience as proof that most of the above named countries and nations lack independent decision-making capacity. In private conversations, too, many of their [official] people make embarrassingly heart-felt confessions to our official people about their lack of core endoskeleton when it comes to reneging on their obligations to Iran due to incessant pressure from the United States.

It is not difficult to deduct, therefore, that officials in Iran consider Russia’s goals and concerns to be legitimate and well-founded. However, they also consider an all-out military advancement into Ukraine may not have been the most prudent and sagacious way to address Russia’s well-justified concerns.

So, what do they suggest? Exactly how long should Russia have waited to take any action serious enough not to fall on deaf ears? Should Russia have waited and fought the NATO-trained- Nazi-inspired foot soldiers of the West conduct operations in Moscow neighborhoods or are they suggesting an alternative? Did/does Russia have any alternatives? More significantly, how are all these convoluted aspects of Russian-Ukrainian crises teased apart in terms of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s foreign policy, its strategic partnership with Russia, Iran’s internal affairs, and the Resistance’s activities in the region?

In this essay, I hope to explore limited dimensions of some of these questions as well as discuss other contrasting views circulating in Iran about the subject. Hopefully, this exploration could illuminate Iran’s current position and possible future position.

Other Viewpoints about Russia-Ukraine Crises Circulating within Iran

Some alternative views that stand in stark contrast with the views expressed by our Leader, Ayatullah Khamenei, and the government officials here have been channeled through some well-known personalities such as Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, an ex-president of Iran. Mr. Ahmadinejad has been quite vocal about his views. In fact, Mr. Ahmadinejad issued an official statement in this regard addressing the government of Russia and the Russian people, the Ukrainian people, and Mr. Zelensky.

Ahmadinejad’s views obtained some currency in some circles but are regarded as fringe by a great majority of the public here. I think it would be useful to translate at least parts of his statements in order to have a more well-rounded understanding of various perspectives inside Iran.

In a videotaped statement he released about the events (see here), he declared (I transcribe and translate):

“Without a doubt, the attack and aggression by Russia against Ukraine is a critical event and an introduction to many more critical events that follow. Here, for the n^th time and very frankly, I must severely condemn the attack and aggression of Russia against Ukraine. Before, I spoke about the plot to change the political map of the world by [the US] America, Russia, and China. These three countries, in a coordinated fashion, have devised a plan to secure their power and control over the world once again. That is, with this enormous wave of humans, of human awakening that has begun, they have become frightened. They say, very soon, this wave would surpass the world. They sat and made a decision that one would take Ukraine, the other one would take Taiwan, and this one would come for Iran. That means, they would remove their gravest worries and, at the same time, they dominate.

Now, if, in our mind, we review the world, if this happens, then there is no place for anyone to say anything. Today, and fortunately, the epic presence and the heroic resistance by the Ukrainian people have introduced serious obstacles in execution and completion of that plot. They hit a bump.”

I do not intent to translate the entire 13-minute statement. In the last couple of minutes of his script-reading speech, he finishes with the following pronouncements:

The Iranian nation holds in high esteem their [the Ukrainian people’s] participation and epic resistance and prays for their victory against the aggressors. The Iranian nation asks God to prevent the expansionist gluts from continuing and to end the war, and to make possible the sweet flow of life among all people, including two great people of Ukraine and Russia. At the end, once again, I hold in high regard the resistance of the nation of Ukraine, President Zelensky, and other officials in Ukraine. And I send to them the friendship and prayer of the Iranian nation.

I take refuge in God when He turns us into a lesson for others! Firstly, I wonder if Mr. Ahmadinejad realizes that he is reading an exact script written by major architects of the crises in Ukraine. Secondly, I am not too sure how many times he must be reminded that he is no longer the president of the Islamic Republic of Iran and he is not authorized to speak on behalf of this nation. Thirdly, his statement reflects an array of uninformed, non-critical, and non-strategic thinking in a matter that is rather convoluted, complex, and rather nuanced. It is unfair and unjust in what it deliberately omits.

In the entire 13-minute video statement, there is not a single reference to the events of the past few years in Ukraine (including 30 plus US-financed and operated biological weapons labs about which he wrote an official complaint to the UN and to which I referred in one of the essays I wrote last year about COVID in the Islamic Republic of Iran (See here). Neither is there any mention of the role the US-West, Inc. has played in destabilizing that country and using it as a lever against Russia and a launching pad for all sorts of mischief in the region.

I must open a parenthesis here and add that I do not find Ahmadinejad’s stance all that surprising. When Daesh/ISIS was advancing in Syria and was busy chopping heads right, left, and center, he came forcefully against Bashar Asad and the Syrian government. He fiercely objected to Iran’s involvement and help in that country and issued statements in that regard. I referenced some of these when discussing his disqualification in the Iranian presidential election in another essay published last year (See here). Had he been in charge of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s overall foreign policy, we have little doubt would have now been busy fighting ISIS or some other variants inside our own cities and neighborhoods. Close parenthesis. We thank God Almighty for His Blessings in the form of a wise Leader.

As I mentioned, the majority of the public in Iran do not share Ahmadinejad’s particular view. There are some though who would like him to join his brother in armchair, Mr. President Zelensky, in his fight in Ukraine. Perhaps after they have defeated Russia, they could have a live show discussing the following two videos on Ukrainian national television: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Homosexuality versus Freedom Gay Fetish Dance with President Zelensky. Who knows, perhaps he could lead him to the Straight Path.

Again, I take refuge in God when He leaves us (due to our own arrogance and delusions of grandeur) to our own devices even for a nanosecond.

The Boundaries of Iran-Russia Relationship and Partnership

Successful collaboration and strategic coordination of operations between Iran and Russia in the battlefields of Syria, geopolitical and economic shifts in Asia and Eurasia, and perhaps a sense of comradery primarily due to the fact that both countries have been fierce targets for “crippling” sanctions by the US/West Inc. have all made the relationship between Iran and Russia to a phenomenon that is rather interesting and noteworthy. I discussed some contemporary and historical aspects of this relationship in another essay published last year (See here).

The Islamic Republic of Iran’s general framework for any foreign relation and partnership is firmly rooted in the jealously guarded Revolutionary motto of “Neither East, Nor West”, freedom, and full independence from any foreign pressure and interference. Its relationship with Russia, too, must be viewed, first and foremost, within that framework. So, what does this tell us about Iran’s policy and approach towards these particular crises?

Let us be rather frank and transparent and deal with the obvious first. Russian military’s advancement into Ukraine has suddenly resulted in some favorable outcomes for Iran and for some other countries friendly to Iran in the region. It has sent panic, disillusion about the US power, and insecurity to some other countries not so friendly to Iran.

Higher oil prices, halt in all sorts of restrictions on oil export, higher enthusiasm on the part of the US and Europe to reach an agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran over JCPOA, which has been in coma and on life support for a while now, sudden visits by keepers of oil wells with flag masquerading as Arab nations to bury the hatchet and make nice with Iran have also been among the consequences.

Missile attacks by Yemen on Saudi Oil facilities had never produced any sort of meaningful change in the attitude of the aggressors (US-Saudi-Brits) before. With Russia’s retaliatory work and countermeasures, the last couple of missile attacks by Yemen, however, seem to have become highly effective since they occurred at the right time. Oh, our cup runneth over!

Why? Three important reasons: 1) The US-West Inc. cannot fight effectively in more than one meaningful front at a time; 2) The US and Western nations cannot weather the storms of high energy and oil-based products (which includes almost everything). So, it is attempting to temporarily put Iran and others in our region on the back burner; and 3) There are always always always limits to how much media magic shows can achieve. The US-West Inc. will realize this, as always, soon enough.

Regardless of Russia’s mode of dealing with Ukraine problem and current needs for the US-West, Inc. to keep oil prices low, I can state for a fact that the Islamic Republic of Iran will, God Willing, never sacrifice its long-term goals for any short-term superficial gains.

Iran’s two main priorities were and are the eviction of all US forces from our region in retaliation for the martyrdom of our great Sardar, Shahid Soleimani, and dismantling of the illegitimate Zionist regime to return the land of Palestine to its rightful owners, the true Palestinians (Muslim, Christians, Jews, Arabs, and non-Arabs). Her collaboration or deal with Russia or any other nation or group of nations with plus or minus designations in ANY activity, exchange, and operation, be they short-, medium-, or long-term, will be directly related to how such collaborations and activities bring her a step closer to achieving the Islamic Republic of Iran’s own main goals and priorities.

In this context, it is not too difficult to see how Russia’s potential concerns with the countries and regions to her south happen to be largely alleviated simply due to the fact that they may coincide with Iran’s independent priorities and activities, be they military, economic, and political, and her vigilance in achieving her stated goals.

When the United States, Inc. attacked Iraq and removed Saddam Hussein from power, most notable think tanks in the West claimed that the Islamic Republic of Iran emerged the biggest winner. With Russia attacking Ukraine, who knows what other oppressed nations could emerge as the winners. God works in mysterious ways.

Russia-Ukraine Crisis in a Larger Inter-continental Context

In an essay titled Afghanistan, Taliban, the Resistance, and the Region (see Here), I alluded to a method used by the US-West, Inc. on Iran, Russia, and China to dismantle stability and positive developments in our region. I wrote:

“Afghanistan is a major keystone species in this ecosystem. Disintegration of Afghanistan means the new “Silk Road” will first turn into a “Rough Road” and then into an “Abandoned Road” and ultimately destroys the concord among the main players in Asia. In addition, it can serve as a tool for the application of internal-external clamp-style customized and separate pressures on Iran, Russia, China, and other countries in the region.”

Clamp-style pressures include inciting unrest, instability and sedition within each country and using belligerent neighbors from without each country. For the Islamic Republic of Iran they did/do everything they can to drag Iran’s military into Afghanistan. There is not a day that goes by and we do not hear about the massacre of Shia in this mosque and that school, in this gathering and that outing. Then, there is the Republic of Azerbaijan to the north and the Iraqi Kurdistan to the west, the oil wells with flags to the south that have each turned themselves into US-West-Zionist regime’s concubines in some form or shape. Certainly, the Islamic Republic of Iran does not take any of these lying down but we have military operations that are loud and we have calculated military operations that are silent but deadly enough.

To pressure Russia, there is Ukraine + a handful of other has-been nations proudly flying rainbow flags pretending they count for anything. And finally for China there is Tao (Taiwan + AUKUS + Occupied territories of Japan and South Korea).

The goal is rather simple, as Connable & McNerney opined in their commentary titled “The Will to Fight and the Fate of Nations,”:

 “Overmatching Russian mass and equipment is one part of a more complex and important pathway to overmatching the Russians. It is worth repeating that Russians — and Chinese, Iranian, and North Korean soldiers, sailors, airmen, and political leaders — can be broken. The U.S. military simply does not devote enough attention to understanding how to break them, or at least erode their resolve, in order to make war less likely and to make our success in war more likely and less costly.”^[1]

To have a good grasp of where the authors are coming from, I highly recommend two other documents published by RAND Corporation titled: “Will to Fight: Analyzing, Modeling, and Simulating the Will to Fight of Military Units,”^[2] and “National Will to Fight: Why Some States Keep Fighting and Others Don’t,”^[3] from which the authors’ commentary obtains its essence.

Russia’s military advancement into Ukraine seems to have provided the US-West Inc. with a field experiment necessary to assess their “Will to Fight Model” answering the following question: “What are the political, economic, and military variables that may strengthen or weaken national will to fight, and which are most important?” Or, put more succinctly and eloquently, they wish to confirm or refute their null hypothesis of “No relationship between ‘will to fight’ (at individual, unit, national, and leadership levels) and winning the game of chicken.”

Allow me just post an image of the WTF Model^[4] I have referenced for those who may not search and study the documents:

I am quite curious to see how this conceptual model, its multiple constructs, and included variables fair in this test. However, given what we have been observing in the media, I very much like to suggest the following changes to the model (let’s suppose it is an iterative model) for the sake of accuracy and add another layer that is often omitted by gods of war:

Now, I think that looks much better and more accurate. With the new model, let’s see how things turn out. Meanwhile, War on the Rocks seems to believe “Ukraine shows how Taiwan needs more air defense,”^[5] based on preliminary reports of fabricated data collected from the imagined field and reported through the beacon of honesty and accuracy, Tweeter. I do not know why but the article just flashed Miller’s Death of a Salesman play before my eyes. والسلام.

Refrences

[1] War on the Rocks, B. Cannable & M. McNerney (2018). “The will to fight and the fate of nations,” Accessed online at: https://warontherocks.com/2018/12/the-will-to-fight-and-the-fate-of-nations/

[2] RAND Arroyo Center (2019). “Will to Fight: Analyzing, Modeling, and Simulating the Will to Fight of Military Units,” by B. Connable, M.J. McNerney, et al., RR2341-A, 2019. Accessed online at: www.rand.org/t/RR2341.

[3] RAND Corporation (2019). “National Will to Fight: Why Some States Keep Fighting and Others Don’t,” by M. J. McNerney, Ben Connable, et al., RR-2477-A, 2019. Accessed online at: www.rand.org/t/RR2477.

[4] RAND Corporation Brief,(2019). “Will to Fight: Returning Human Fundamentals of War.” Accessed online at: www.rand.org/t/RB10040.

[5] War on the Rocks. “Ukraine Shows Why Taiwan Needs More Air Defense,” by H. Halem and E. Freymann, published on April 7, 2022. Accessed online at: https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/ukraine-shows-why-taiwan-needs-more-air-defense/

لماذا تستعجل واشنطن الاتفاق الإيرانيّ والترسيم اللبنانيّ؟

السبت 12 شباط 2022

 ناصر قنديل

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قد يُوحي الجمع بين العجلة الأميركية في ملفي التفاوض مع إيران، وترسيم حدود لبنان البحرية برابط تفاوضيّ بينهما، وهو غير موجود، إلا في القلق الأميركي من الملفات المتفجّرة في المنطقة، في ظل انسداد خيار الحرب أمامها وأمام “إسرائيل”، وبلوغ خيار العقوبات سقف ما يستطيعه في مواجهة إيران وحزب الله، وصولاً للخوف من أن يؤدي المزيد من الضغط الى تسريع لجوء إيران وحزب الله إلى خيارات جذريّة تغير موازين القوى السياسية والاقتصادية في الإقليم. وفيما تعارض “إسرائيل” العجلة الأميركية في التفاوض مع إيران وصولاً لاتفاق، طالما أنه لن يتضمن التزاماً إيرانياً بوقف أو تخفيض مستوى الإنفاق على برنامجها الصاروخي ومساهمتها بدعم قوى المقاومة، فإنها تبدو مشاركة في القلق مما بات يسمّى خطر سقوط لبنان في حضن حزب الله بدلاً من سقوطه على رأسه، كما كانت الغاية من مشروع إسقاط لبنان قبل أن تكسر جدار الحصار سفن المازوت الإيراني التي جلبها حزب الله بحراً ومرّر حمولتها عبر سورية الى لبنان، فاتحاً الباب لخطوات من خارج العلبة، وفقاً للتوصيف الأميركي، يمكن أن تشتمل لاحقاً على ما هو أخطر، خصوصاً في ملف ثروات النفط والغاز والتلميحات حول جلب شركات إيرانية للتنقيب فيها تضع المنطقة على شفا حرب. بالمقابل تتحفظ السعودية على وجهتي العجلة الأميركية مع إيران وفي لبنان، رغم أنها تدرك بأنها لا تملك إلا التأقلم في نهاية المطاف عبر تسريع مفاوضاتها مع إيران وتوسيع نطاقها لتشمل سورية وتفتح عبرهما نافذة على لبنان، وتل أبيب الحريصة على الحفاظ على خطاب يعاكس الواقع الذي تعرفه جيداً والمخاطر التي تخشاها بالفعل، تضع واشنطن ضمن معادلة ربط التوصل للتفاهم مع إيران بإنهاء ترسيم الحدود مع لبنان لتحويل خط ترسيم حدود النفط والغاز الى خط عازل يبرّد جبهات القتال المفترضة والمقلقة.

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في القراءة الأميركية أن العالم يسارع الخطى نحو تغييرات جذرية كبيرة سياسياً وعسكرياً واقتصادياً، على طرفي الشرق الأوسط الشمالي والشرقي اللذين تمثلهما روسيا والصين، فروسيا تبدو قد حسمت أمرها بفتح ملف استعادة أوروبا الشرقيّة، ولو خطوة خطوة، وتجميد الحركة الروسيّة لفتح باب التفاوض اليوم سيتيح الحصول على أفضل مما قد يتيحه أي تفاوض في الغد. وهذه هي وظيفة التصعيد الأميركي على ضفاف أوكرانيا، لأن سقوط أول حجارة الدومينو الأوروبيّة في الحضن الروسيّ سيعني تلاحق التدحرج، وصولاً لسؤال أوروبي طرح ما بعد الانسحاب الأميركي من أفغانستان، حول جدوى الانضواء في ظلال حلف الناتو، وجدوى التحالف مع أميركا، وبدء النقاش بخيار أوروبي منفصل عن أميركا يضع مفاهيم مستقلة للأمن الأوروبي ومن ضمنها النظرة للعلاقات بروسيا، ومثل الجبهة الشمالية لآسيا، تبدو الجبهة الشرقيّة التي تمثلها الصين قد ثبتت موقعها كدولة أولى في العالم بنمو اقتصاديّ ثابت، مقابل نمو سلبي ترزح تحته كل دول الغرب، زاده تفاوت التفاعل مع آثار وباء كورونا صعوبة، وحققت الصين إنتاجاً إجمالياً بالأسعار الثابتة وبأصول ثابتة يزيد 50% عمّا حققته أميركا، حيث الناتج الإجمالي الوطني الأميركي 24 تريليون دولار منها عشرة فقط تعود للأصول الثابتة والباقي لحركة دفتريّة يمثلها الاقتصاد الافتراضيّ، بينما في الصين ناتج إجمالي بـ20 تريليون منها 15 لاقتصاد الأصول الثابتة، و5 للاقتصاد الافتراضيّ، وفيما ترزح واشنطن تحت عبء ديون بعشرات التريليونات، تفيض خزائن الصين بالسيولة النقدية، وفيما تتوسّع الصين في آسيا وصولاً نحو البحر المتوسط، تنكفئ أميركا من آسيا وتقاتل على أطراف المتوسط كي لا تجد نفسها خارجه.

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تنظر واشنطن لتصاعد التوتر في جبهات المنطقة، ومحورها القلق من إيران من جهة والقلق على “إسرائيل” من جهة مقابلة، بعد سنوات تمتدّ لعقدين طويلين من الحروب، بصفتها جبهة خاسرة، لا أمل بتعديل الموازين فيها، خصوصاً بعد الحرب الضروس على سورية وما استُخدم فيها، ولأن التوصل لتسويات نهائية لملفات الصراع، يفتح باب البحث بحل القضية الفلسطينية الميؤوس من صياغة مقاربة تتحمّلها “إسرائيل” وترتضيها القوى التي تهدد أمنها، فالمطلوب نزع صواعق التفجير التي قد تفرض على واشنطن التورط في حرب، ولذلك يبدو قرار الانسحاب من العراق وسورية متخذاً مع وقف التنفيذ، وعنوانا الحرب المفترضين وسريعا الاشتعال هما، من جانب، تحول التجاذب الأميركي الإيراني حول الملف النووي إلى سبب للتفجير تخرج واشنطن منه أشد ضعفاً، ويُصاب حلفاؤها وفي مقدّمتهم “إسرائيل” بأضرار جسيمة، وربما وجودية،، ولا توقفه إلا العودة للاتفاق الموقع عام 2015. ومن جانب آخر تحول النزاع على ثروات النفط والغاز بين لبنان و”إسرائيل” إلى مدخل لتسييل التفوق العسكري لحزب الله في مواجهة مع “إسرائيل” تغيّر وجه المنطقة وربما تورط أميركا بالتدخل العسكريّ في حرب لا تريدها، ولا تثق بنتائجها. وبسحب هذين الصاعقين يعتقد صناع القرار في واشنطن أن الطريق تصبح سالكة نحو سحب القوات الأميركية من سورية والعراق، وصولاً لتوظيف التصعيد مع روسيا في فتح الباب لتفاوض يثبت خطوط النفوذ على أطراف أوروبا رغم ما فيه من تنازلات والتزامات حول مستقبل حلف الناتو، ليتم الانكفاء نحو الداخل الأميركي لأنه المكان الوحيد الذي يمكن من خلاله التفرّغ لمواجهة الصين.

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الانتخابات النصفية الأميركية في الخريف، يجب أن تحل وإدارة الرئيس بايدن قد أنجزت الاتفاقات التي تنهي أزمة الملف النووي وترسيم الحدود البحرية للبنان من جهة، ودخلت التفاوض مع روسيا من جهة موازية، ما يتيح للرئيس جو بايدن الإعلان عن التفرغ لمواجهة الصين، وهو يضمن قدراً من الاستقرار والهدوء في المنطقة التي يغادرها مهزوماً، لكن في قالب إنجازات سياسية، ما يتيح الحصول على دعم اللوبي الصهيوني ولوبيات النفط الذي ستنخفض المخاطر عليه، ولوبيات السلاح الذي ستتدفق صفقاته على دول الخليج بمليارات الدولارات تحت شعار المساعدة على ردّ المخاطر.

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Top IRGC’s commander: Trump, other assassins of Gen. Soleimani not safe

January 5, 2022

By IFP Editorial Staff

, Esmail Qa’ani

A senior commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) says ex-US President Donald Trump, who ordered the assassination of Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani, and his other partners in crime won’t be out of harm’s way.

At a ceremony on Tuesday marking the martyrdom anniversary of his predecessor, Esmail Qa’ani, who heads the IRGC’s Quds Force, said Iran is determined to avenge General Soleimani’s blood “in its own style.”

“Criminal Trump and his overt and covert partners, such as [his foreign minister] Pompeo are known to us. Martyr Soleimani had repeatedly humiliated Pompeo in the region and they thought they had achieved a victory by assassinating him,” he said.

Nevertheless, Trump and his other partners remain “under the magnifying glass” and they will not be safe, he added.

Addressing the Americans, Qa’ani said, “You imagined that you hit and ran, but the Islamic society and the world’s freedom-seekers will take revenge in a way that you won’t forget as long as you’re alive,” he said.

In the wake of Gen. Soleimani’s murder, Iran and other regional nations were seeking the US withdrawal from the region, Qa’ani said. Something worse, however, happened to the Americans and they were instead expelled.

He added that the people of Iraq, where Gen. Soleimani was targeted in a drone strike in early 2020, and the country’s resistance forces will not tolerate the presence of the remaining 2,000 US troops on their soil.

More on the topic

• Scared Pompeo: Raisi “Arousing All Muslims to Murder Trump and Me” 
• China: US Assassination of Gen. Soleimani war crime
• Iran Judiciary seeks prosecution of 127 over General Soleimani assassination

Sayyed Nasrallah commemorates martyrdom of Soleimani, Al-Muhandis

January 3, 2022

Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah speaks on the second anniversary of the martyrdom of Major General Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis.

Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah speaking on the second anniversary of the martyrdom of Major General Qassem Soleimani and commander Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis on January 3, 2022

Speaking on the second anniversary of the martyrdom of former IRGC Quds Force commander Major General Qassem Soleimani and former Popular Mobilization Forces commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said the repercussions of the US assassination of the two martyrs are still unfolding until this moment.

Two years after the martyrdom of the two leaders and their comrades, Sayyed Nasrallah asserted that commemorating them was a recognition of the sacrifices they have made.

“Over the last two years, there have been major battles that affirmed that the [axis of resistance] was still following in the footsteps of the two leaders, such as in the battle of Seif Al-Quds,” the secretary-general declared.

He urged the countries and peoples of the region to undertake a firm stance on the killer and the martyr. “Iraq must have a stance on who the killer is and who the martyr is,” Sayyed Nasrallah said.

“The United States occupied and tyrannized Iraq and committed massacres there before the assassination of Soleimani.”

The top leader attributed ISIS to Washington, “The United States created ISIS to return its armies to Iraq, and it is to bear the responsibility for all the crimes committed by ISIS.” 

“The United States is a historically unmatched hypocritical assassin,” he declared, highlighting the contrast with martyr Soleimani, who he said, “Stood by the Iraqi people and contributed to the establishment of the resistance and provided it with arms, strength, and momentum.”

In a similar vein, he praised Iran, saying, “The Islamic Republic was the first to stand by the Iraq people in the face of ISIS, which was brought upon by Washington.”

Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah saw that the security Iraq is enjoying today was “the blessing of the martyrs. Is it fair to compare the criminal United States and Iran, who supported Iraq?”

“It is disastrous to compare the two martyrs who stood by Iraq and the United States who carried out massacres there,” he continued.

Saudi Arabia sent suicide bombers to Iraq

Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said, “Saudi Arabia was sending suicide bombers and car bombs to Iraq. It sent its youth to murder the children, women, and men. However, Iran sent its men to die in defense of the children, women, and men.”

He also underscored that the Americans asked Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to spread the Wahhabi ideology.

The US is responsible for all Israeli crimes in Palestine and the region

“The United States is responsible for all of Israel’s crimes in Palestine and the region,” Sayyed Nasrallah underlined, calling back “Israel’s” doings in Lebanon, such as wars, air raids, and massacres, and blaming the United States for them. “The United States of America is responsible, so how could we perceive it as a friend?”

He also touched on the US crimes in Syria: “The US government killed the Syrian people and plunged their country into a devastating war.” He also emphasized that Washington “wants to turn Al-Tanf base in Syria into a sanctuary for ISIS to threaten Damascus.”

Regarding the war on Yemen, Sayyed Nasrallah said it was an American war waged by Saudi Arabia. “The Americans manipulated the Gulf states during the siege of Qatar to take money from it,” he added.

Touching on the US crimes in Afghanistan, he said, “The Americans committed crimes during their occupation of the country and their withdrawal from it while saying the killings ‘were a mistake’ as the Pentagon stands idle.”

The US forces are fated to leave this region

The Secretary-General also touched on Iraq’s internal affairs by saying, “Tolerating or turning a blind eye to the presence of US forces in Iraq is killing martyrs Soleimani and Al-Muhandis all over again,” stressing that Washington’s forces are fated to leave this region.

“The blood of martyrs Soleimani and Al-Muhandis is crying out to the minds and the consciences in the Arab and Islamic worlds,” the secretary-general asserted, stressing that the head of the snake in terms of aggression, occupation, and tyranny, is the United States, “And we must take it as an enemy.”

Prisoner Hisham Abu Hawash is a hero and resistance symbol

Touching on the topic of the hunger-striking Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah praised prisoner Hisham Abu Hawash – who has been hunger-striking for 140 days. He said Abu Hawash was a symbol of resistance alongside the six heroic prisoners who liberated themselves through operation Freedom Tunnel a few months ago.

“There are thousands of Palestinian prisoners in Zionist prisons, and they are suffering to a great extent,” Sayyed Nasrallah underscored.

Commenting on the Israeli occupation building a wall around Gaza, one of “Israel’s” latest provocative moves, the secretary-general said, “A few weeks ago, the construction of the massive wall around Gaza was completed to increase the severity of the blockade imposed on the Strip for the last 15 years,” adding, “while the entire world is standing idle.”

“Today, Palestine is occupied by the Zionists, and the world knows what the Palestinian people are suffering from due to the occupation, the displacement, and the diaspora,” Sayyed Nasrallah asserted.

It was an honor to combat the organizations brought upon by Saudi Arabia

Commenting on the latest crisis between Lebanon and Saudi Arabia, Sayyed Nasrallah said, “We neither violated nor attacked Saudi Arabia. It was an accomplice to the universal war on the region, and we had the honor to combat the organizations brought upon the region by Saudi Arabia.”

He also responded to the latest statements made by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, in which he described Hezbollah as “terrorist,” by saying, “The terrorists are the ones who sent thousands of Saudi takfiris to Syria and Iraq.”

“The terrorists are the ones holding thousands of Lebanese people hostage in the Gulf and making threats against Lebanon on a daily basis,” he declared while noting that no resignation of any Lebanese minister would change the Saudi stance, “For its problem is with those who thwarted its project for the region.”

Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah concluded by affirming that Hezbollah was assiduous toward its internal allies, emphasizing the importance of inter-Lebanese dialogue.

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Imam Khamenei on Soleimani

Evening Bulletin | Martyr Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis .. life and victory

MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

• Hezbollah chief demands Iraq take clear position against the killers of Soleimani, Al-Muhandis
• Two years on, the Soleimani spirit gathers clout
• Martyr Soleimani Is An Eternal School of Resistance, His Assassins Must Receive Fair Punishment – Raisi
• Thousands commemorate the martyrdom of Soleimani, Al-Muhandis

Assassination of Soleimani, Al-Muhandis created new reality: PMF head

Jan 3 2022

Source: Al Mayadeen + Agencies

By Al Mayadeen Net

Faleh Al-Fayyad, head of the Popular Mobilization Forces, confirms that “Iraq will not accept the presence of American forces.”

The head of the Popular Mobilization, Faleh al-Fayyad

The head of the Popular Mobilization Forces, Faleh Al-Fayyad, confirmed that the Iraqi people will not accept the presence of any US forces on Iraqi soil.

During the second anniversary of the martyrdom of Lieutenant-General Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis at the site of their assassination at Baghdad International Airport, Al-Fayyad said that the Iraqis “remember the leaders of victory,” adding that “we raise our generations on the noble values ​​they carried.”

Al-Fayyad added, “The crowds that came yesterday declared loyalty for those who sacrificed their existence and their blood,” stressing that both leaders “came forward every day for martyrdom, and their lives were all fighting with falsehood.” 

🔻#عاجل

رئيس هيئة #الحشد_الشعبي الأستاذ #فالح_الفياض @FalihAlfayyadh

نستذكر قادة النصر ونربي اجيالنا على ما حملوه من قيم نبيلة

قادة النصر كانوا مشاريع استشهاد في كل دقيقة ولحظة

رسالة شعبنا يوم امس رفعت للادارة الامريكية على جريمتها الشنعاء

— مديرية الإعلام – هيئة الحشد الشعبي (@teamsmediawar) January 2, 2022

He pointed out that the message of the Iraqi people, yesterday, “was raised to the American administration for its heinous crime,” stressing that the echo of “the crime of assassinating the leaders of victory grows daily, and what happened after that, created a new situation,” adding that “Iraq will not accept the presence of American forces.”

The head of the Popular Mobilization Forces called on the new US administration to “not follow the example of the previous criminal US administration that committed the treacherous crime,” saying that  “the airport crime imposed a new reality.” He explained, “the demand for the expulsion of foreign forces cannot be delayed – and this is what the masses have demanded.”

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Two Years since the Assassination of Commander Soleimani: Biography and Goals

December 30 2021

By Ali Abadi

Why was the assassination of Major General Qassem Soleimani and his companion Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis an exceptional event? What are the motives behind the assassination? And how did the regional reality change two years after the assassination?

The fact that the United States of America committed this crime against a high-ranking Iranian military official and then declared responsibility, constitutes a significant regional development. It clearly meant that the US administration had lost its indirect tools of influence and deterrence in the face of the axis of resistance and that it needed to change the rules of engagement and restorte to the old methods based on assassinations and bullying.

Why Soleimani in particular?

Choosing Major General Soleimani as a direct target was based on two factors:

The first factor: The effective role the Quds Force played under his leadership over a period of three decades that undermined American hegemony and the tyranny of the Zionist occupation.

This role had different dimensions: arming the resistance wings, training, and coordination. The martyr realized the importance of countering the US political influence, not just its military presence.

For example, he was keen to track and thwart American projects and steps aimed at perpetuating the US presence in Iraq. And whenever the Americans tried to gather the threads of their political proxies in this country, Commander Soleimani would obstruct it. His presence disrupted those proxies and plans.

If he heard that the Americans were supporting the nomination of so-and-so to a senior position in this country, he pushed things in the opposite direction, knowing that the Americans want their interests first and foremost.

Of course, he wouldn’t have assumed such a great role had it not been for the leadership of the Islamic Republic and its various apparatuses forcefully backing the Quds Force in carrying out its duties.

The second factor: The unique personality of the martyr, which combines several traits, the most prominent of which were:

1- The clarity of the ideological-political premise of the school he represents, which is the school of Imam Khomeini. This school produced many cadres and leaders who became martyrs in the battlefields of Iran, Iraq, and Syria.

By ideological premise, we mean here the radical stance against the Zionist entity and the American policies that the late Imam described as arrogant policies. It is well-known that Hajj Qassem was asked by a US commander in Iraq to discuss the possibility of coordinating the war against Daesh, and he refused to open a dialogue with the American.

2- The strategic vision: Martyr Soleimani had a comprehensive vision of the conflict with the American and “Israeli” enemies. He viewed the region from Afghanistan to Palestine as an integrated field of action, even if the circumstances of each country differed from the other. For example, he was fully aware of the importance of removing the American occupation from the region, specifically from Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria, considering this presence as a factor of instability and a reason for direct intervention in determining the future of these countries and a direct threat to the Islamic Republic. He was also very serious in strengthening the capabilities of the resistance against the Zionist occupation, both quantitatively and qualitatively.

3- Field presence: Martyr Soleimani was distinguished as a man of the battlefield. He had a special dynamic. He was fond of being on the frontlines among the fighters so he could get a closer look at the nature of the situation, to strengthen them, and to show the importance of their battle at these pivotal stations. This had a significant impact on recharging the resolve, concentrating military and political efforts, and achieving victories.

4- The role model and the example: He was keen to set an example in the fraternal and cordial dealings with the fighters to give the battle its true moral dimension. The two opposing fronts are not distinguished by military force or political position, but rather by the spiritual values that each group carries and translates into Islamic behavior based on the teachings of the Messenger’s household [PBUT].

5- The initiative: It is true that Major General Soleimani was a military leader, but he was distinguished from many military leaders in that he was a man of initiative; he did not wait to receive the taklifs [obligations]. Rather, by virtue of his long experience and his all-pervading sense, he diagnosed what was required and then moved to obtaine approval from the leadership.

The Goals of the Assassination:

Far from the American pretext that was given to justify the assassination, which centered on allegations that martyr Soleimani planned an imminent attack on the American embassy in Baghdad – the Special Rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary, or arbitrary executions Agnes Callamard described the killing of General Qassem Soleimani was an “arbitrary killing” that violated the UN Charter, and that the United States did not provide evidence that planning was underway for an “imminent attack” on its interests – motives for this crime and the manner in which it was committed can be identified as follows:

– Spreading fear and demoralizing within the resistance axis (through the method of intimidation) and trying to re-establish deterrence in the face of Iran and push it to withdraw its support from its allies. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo expressed this trend at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution in January 2020, in a symposium titled “The Restoration of Deterrence: The Iranian Example”. He noted that Soleimani was killed as part of a broader strategy to deter challenges posed by Washington’s opponents, focusing in particular on Iran.

This strategy was previously eroded by the axis of resistance amid the decline in the American prestige and presence in the region, which was established by almost no achievement in all areas. Meanwhile, the axis of resistance was advancing and besieging the American military presence and influence in Iraq and was pushing Washington to think about withdrawing its forces from Syria as it failed to arrange any gains that would contribute to changing the reality there.

The failure of America’s allies in Yemen, the accumulated American military deficit in Afghanistan, and the failure of the Zionist entity to confront the resistance in Palestine and Lebanon were additional reasons for demolishing the image of US policy in the Middle East.

During the Trump era, the Americans felt that the axis of resistance was becoming increasingly emboldened. There are numerous examples – the attack on the Abqaiq oil facility in Saudi Arabia, Iran’s downing of a 130-million-dollar American drone, and the intensification of the frequency of operations against American forces in Iraq.

– Getting Iran to submit to its nuclear program. Trump’s ambition was to reformulate the nuclear agreement in a way that takes into account the viewpoint of his allies on the Zionist right.

– Restoring the confidence of America’s allies in Iraq and the region. This confidence and bets on the United States have been shaken by the experiences in recent years, despite the massive American military spending. Washington realized that removing its forces from Iraq again (after the first exit in 2011) means losing the greatest political influence in this country and its surroundings. That is why the Americans were keen to maintain a military presence there to install their allies and tools.

– Attempting to enhance the image of the Trump administration inside the United States and rallying up the masses against external enemies (specifically Islamic ones). This is important in light of the sharp internal partisan polarization in this country.

– Was Soleimani’s assassination also an “Israeli” demand? This may be one of the most important and perhaps main motives in light of Netanyahu’s and the Zionist lobby’s extraordinary influence on the American president at the time. And Donald Trump recently – about a year after his exit from office – expressed his dissatisfaction with Netanyahu for believing that he used him to assassinate Soleimani.  According to the American Axios news website, Trump said that Netanyahu was “willing to fight Iran to the last American soldier.”

The former head of the “Israeli” Military Intelligence Division, Tamir Hayman, also revealed that the Mossad played a role in the assassination of the commander of the Quds Force, Qassem Soleimani, according to the “Israeli” Kan radio station.

We can guess the reason why the enemy pushed the US administration to get rid of a high-ranking leader of Soleimani’s stature, in light of the role he played at the head of the Quds Force in terms of strengthening the resistance wings, providing them with the means of strength, and deterring the Zionist entity.

The strategic response

All these motives and goals did not change the outcome of the reality of US policy in the region. The axis of resistance was affected for some time by the assassination of Soleimani, but it has maintained its goals and program of work and is continuing to implement the strategy of removing US forces from the region, starting with Iraq and Syria.

Here, it’s worth recalling what the Leader [Imam] Khamenei said on the anniversary of the martyrdom of the Quds Force commander, when he stressed that “driving out the American forces from the region will be the most powerful blow” to respond to his assassination, after the initial bold response to the crime.

He also vowed to avenge Soleimani by punishing those responsible for giving orders and carrying out the assassination “whenever the opportunity arises.” His Eminence called for accelerating technological, scientific, and military progress to enhance deterrence against the enemy, which is becoming evident day after day.

Thus, Washington and those who seek refuge under its umbrella were disappointed that Soleimani’s absence had no impact on the strategy of the axis of resistance. And the rush by the United States to arrange its military presence in Iraq before the end of 2021 is an indication of the continuing presence and influence of this axis, despite all the tremendous pressures exerted by successive US administrations.

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The Staff of Soleimani

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’Israel’ Was Involved In Gen. Soleimani Assassination: Ex-military Intel Chief

Dec 21 2021

By Staff, Agencies

Former chief of the Zionist military intelligence Major General Tamir Hayman said the Tel Aviv regime was involved in the 2020 assassination of top Iranian anti-terror commander Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani in a US drone strike near the Iraqi capital’s international airport.

“Soleimani’s assassination is an achievement, since our main enemy, in my eyes, are the Iranians,” Hayman told Malam magazine in an interview that was published by the ‘Israeli’ Intelligence Heritage and Commemoration Center.

Hayman’s remarks mark the first time a top Zionist official confirms the ‘Israeli’ occupation regime’s role in the US-led operation.

Back in May, it was reported that the Tel Aviv regime provided the US with key intelligence support, including tracking Gen. Soleimani’s cellphone.

“In Tel Aviv, US Joint Special Operations Command liaisons worked with their ‘Israeli’ counterparts to help track Soleimani’s cellphone patterns,” Yahoo News reported on May 8. “The ‘Israelis’, who had access to Soleimani’s numbers, passed them off to the Americans, who traced Soleimani and his current phone to Baghdad.”

In remarks in October, Hayman said the assassination made a “significant contribution” to the Zionist regime’s security, after saying that it was “one of the most significant and important events in my time.”

However, former US president Donald Trump was described by a former official as unhappy with the Tel Aviv regime’s level of involvement in the assassination, according to an Axois report, as he “expected ‘Israel’ to play a more active role in the attack.”

General Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guard [IRG], and his Iraqi trenchmate Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy head of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Units [PMU], were assassinated along with their companions in a US terrorist drone strike authorized by Trump near Baghdad International Airport on January 3, 2020.

Iraqi lawmakers approved a bill two days later, demanding the withdrawal of all foreign military forces led by the United States from the country.

Both commanders were admired by Muslim nations for eliminating the US-sponsored Daesh [Arabic for ‘ISIS/ISIL’] Takfiri terrorist group in the region, particularly in Iraq and Syria.

The US assassination drew a wave of condemnation from officials and movements throughout the world and triggered huge public protests across the region.

Early on January 8, the IRG targeted the US-run Ain al-Assad airbase in Iraq’s western province of Anbar with a barrage of missiles to retaliate the assassination of General Soleimani.

In wake of the operation, the US War Department claimed that more than 100 American forces suffered “traumatic brain injuries” during the counterstrike on the base.

Iran has described the missile operation on Ain al-Assad airbase as a “first slap.”

Iranian Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei on October 18 underlined the need for the most serious prosecution of the perpetrators of the assassination of Lieutenant General Soleimani and a number of Iranian scientists.

“We will not allow the blood of these innocent people to be wasted,” Mohseni-Ejei said, blaming the US and the ‘Israeli’ regime for the terrorist attack.

أميركا تسابق الانفجار الإقليمي بالانسحاب وقدماها عالقتان

الأربعاء 24 تشرين الثاني 2021

ناصر قنديل

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يبدو القلق من الانفجار الإقليمي هاجساً أميركياً يحضر في خلفية كل السياسات، بمقدار ما يبدو السعي لتوفير بيئة آمنة للانسحاب الأميركي من المنطقة هدفاً للسياسات، وتبدو السياسة الأميركية عالقة بين القلق الذي تؤشر إليه كل الملفات المتصاعدة في سخونتها، والسعي الذي يحضر في السياسات الأميركية في مواجهة هذه الملفات، وتبدو أميركا عالقة وعاجزة عن إنجاح سياساتها الهادفة لتوفير مناخ مناسب لانسحابها، لارتفاع كلفة التسويات التي لا بد منها خلق مناخ التهدئة الممهد للأنسحاب، بقياس التمسك الأميركي بضم المطالب المتصلة بالأمن الإسرائيلي إلى شروط هذه التسويات، بمقدار ما يظهر حجم تأثير التصادم بين محور المقاومة وكيان الاحتلال عاملاً متسارعاً في صناعة خطر الانفجار.

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الانسحاب الأميركي من المنطقة كخيار استراتيجي يتوقف تحوله إلى سياسة على ما يسميه الأميركيون بشبكة الأمان المفقودة، لكنه يبدو خياراً ثابتاً لم تنجح دعوات حلفاء واشنطن بدفعها لاستبداله بخيار الانخراط في مشاريع المواجهة، فواشنطن لا تزال متمسكة بالسعي للعودة للاتفاق النووي مع إيران، ولا ترى في البدائل التي يعرضها حلفاؤها في المنطقة أي إغراء، كما تبدو واشنطن عند كل منعطف في الصراع يفتح الباب نحو خطر التصعيد مستعجلة لتجاوز مخاطره بتراجعات، كمثل التفرج على معارك الجنوب السوري التي خاضها الجيش السوري تحت أنظار قاعدة التنف وانتهت بحسم عسكري كامل ضد الجماعات المسلحة التي كانت تلوذ بالتنف كداعم ومساند، ومثلها الانكفاء الأميركي من طريق المواجهة مع قرار المقاومة بجلب سفن كسر الحصار المحملة بالوقود الإيراني، وذهابها لرفع عدد من العقوبات التي يفرضها قانون قيصر على سورية، من خلال الموافقة على استجرار الغاز المصري والكهرباء الأردنية إلى لبنان عبر سورية، لكن واشنطن في كل ذلك لا تجرؤ على المضي قدماً نحو تسويات للملفات المأزومة من دون زج الأمن الإسرائيلي في دفتر شروط هذه التسويات، من سورية وربط الانسحاب بانسحاب إيران وقوى المقاومة، وربط العودة للاتفاق النووي مع إيران بفتح ملفات مثل مستقبل دعم إيران لحركات المقاومة وكبح تطورالبرنامج الصاروخي الإيراني.

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القلق من الانفجار الإقليمي هاجس أميركي ناجم عن هذه المراوحة، حيث لا قدرة أميركية على المخاطرة بتبني خيار المواجهة، ولا قدرة أميركية على تجاوز مخاطر التسويات على مستقبل كيان الاحتلال ومصادر قوته، لجهة ما تتيحه من تنامي في قوة محور المقاومة، لكن واشنطن تدرك أنها لا تملك الزناد الذي يقدح شرارة الإشعال، حيث تسارع الأحداث في اليمن وفلسطين وسورية والعراق، قد يجعل الانفجار مفاجأة يصعب تفاديها، فتجد واشنطن نفسها عالقة وسط النيران، وإذا كان التراجع أمام تصاعد الوضع في ساحات كاليمن أو العراق أو سورية ولبنان ممكناً، فإن الخشية من الوضع الأشد خطورة الذي يمثله تسارع التصاعد في المواجهة في فلسطين، تدفع واشنطن للقلق من تجدد مشهد معركة سيف القدس، بذات الأسباب والشروط التي تمثلت قبل شهور بالتصعيد المباشر في مدينة القدس والمناطق المحتلة عام 48، حيث المستوطنون الصهاينة  والمواطنون الفلسطينيون يقفون وجهاً لوجه وعلى تماس يومي تصاعدي نحو الانفجار، وحيث حكومة الاحتلال وقوى المقاومة ستكون حكماً على طرفي هذه المواجهة مع انفجارها، والجديد بعد معادلة محور المقاومة التي أعلنها الأمين العام لحزب الله السيد حسن نصرالله تحت عنوان، القدس تعادل حرباً إقليمية، صار المسار واضحاً بالنسبة لواشنطن، وخطر الانفجار الإقليمي حاضر بقوة.

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المقاربة التي تسعى إليها واشنطن للاستجابة للتحديات التي يفرضها المأزق، تقوم على السعي للفصل بين استعداداتها للعودة للاتفاق النووي، والطلبات الإضافية التي تطال الملفات الإقليمية، أملاً بأن يسرع هذا الخيار فرص العودة للاتفاق بصورة تقترب من الشروط الإيرانية، مقابل التفاهم مع حكومة كيان الاحتلال على ضم القدرات الأميركية تحت عباءة الجيش الإسرائيلي للتلويح بعمل عسكري ضد إيران وقوى المقاومة كخيار يسير بالتوازي مع العودة للاتفاق، وعلى ضفة ثانية السعي لتسريع ترسيم الحدود البحرية بين لبنان وفلسطين المحتلة بشروط يمكن قبولها من لبنان، أملاً بخلق ضوابط جديدة تحول دون انخراط المقاومة في لبنان بأي حرب إقليمية، ومن جهة ثالثة الجمع بين الانسحاب الأميركي من سورية وتقديم المؤازرة اللازمة تقنياً واستخبارياً للغارات الإسرائيلية على سورية وقوى المقاومة فيها، وتبقى هذه الخيارات تحت الفحص أملاً بأن تشكل شبكة أمان افتراضية لتغطية الانسحاب وتسريع التفاهمات، رهاناً على خلق تبريد متوسط المدى يبعد خطر الانفجار الإقليمي ما أمكن، ويطمئن الحلفاء في حال وقوعه إلى التزام واشنطن معهم، في ظل تقديرات خبراء أميركيين تقول إن واشنطن تقنع نفسها بحل وهمي، فهي ترغب بالانسحاب وقلقة من الانفجار وقدماها عالقتان.

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Afghanistan: Between Pipelines and ISIS-K, the Americans Are Still in Play

US trained and armed Afghan security forces are joining ISIS-K, which makes the US ‘withdrawal’ from Afghanistan look more like an American ‘repositioning’ to keep chaos humming

By Pepe Escobar

Global Research,

November 11, 2021

The Cradle 10 November 2021

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***

Something quite extraordinary happened in early November in Kabul.

Taliban interim-Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi and Turkmen Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov got together to discuss a range of political and economic issues. Most importantly, they resurrected the legendary soap opera which in the early 2000s I dubbed Pipelineistan: the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline.

Call it yet another remarkable, historical twist in the post-jihad Afghan saga, going back as far as the mid-1990s when the Taliban first took power in Kabul.

In 1997, the Taliban even visited Houston to discuss the pipeline, then known as TAP, as reported in Part 1 of my e-book Forever Wars.

During the second Clinton administration, a consortium led by Unocal – now part of Chevron – was about to embark on what would have been an extremely costly proposition (nearly $8 billion) to undercut Russia in the intersection of Central and South Asia; as well as to smash the competition: the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline.

The Taliban were duly courted – in Houston and in Kabul. A key go-between was the ubiquitous Zalmay Khalilzad, aka ‘Bush’s Afghan,’ in one of his earlier incarnations as Unocal lobbyist-cum-Taliban interlocutor. But then, low oil prices and non-stop haggling over transit fees stalled the project. That was the situation in the run-up to 9/11.

In early 2002, shortly after the Taliban were expelled from power by the American “bombing to democracy” ethos, an agreement to build what was then still billed as TAP (without India), was signed by Ashgabat, Kabul and Islamabad.

The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline route

As years went by, it was clear that TAPI, which runs for roughly 800 km across Afghan lands and could yield as much as $400 million annually in transit revenue for Kabul’s coffers, would never be built while hostage to a guerrilla environment.

Still, five years ago, Kabul decided to revive TAPI and work started in 2018 – under massive security in Herat, Farah, Nimruz and Helmand provinces, already largely under Taliban control.

At the time, the Taliban said they would not attack TAPI and would even provide their own security. The gas pipeline was to be paired with fiber optic cables – as with the Karakoram Highway in Pakistan – and a railway line from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan.

History never stops playing tricks in the graveyard of empires. Believe it or not, we’re now back to the same situation on the ground as in 1996.

The spanner in the works

If we pay attention to the plot twists in this never-ending Pipelineistan saga, there’s no guarantee whatsoever that TAPI will finally be built. It’s certainly a quadruple win for all involved – including India – and a massive step towards Eurasia’s integration in its Central-South Asian node.Afghanistan Takes Center Stage in the New Great Game

Enter the spanner in the works: ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K), the subsidiary of Daesh in Afghanistan.

Russian intel has known for over a year that the usual suspects have been providing help to ISIS-K, at least indirectly.

Yet now there’s a new element, confirmed by Taliban sources, that quite a few US-trained soldiers of the previous Afghan National Army are incorporating themselves into ISIS-K to fight against the Taliban.

ISIS-K, which sports a global jihadi mindset, has typically viewed the Taliban as a group of dirty nationalists. Earlier jihadi members used to be recruited from the Pakistani Taliban and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). Yet now, apart from former soldiers, they are mostly young, disaffected urban Afghans, westernized by trashy pop culture.

It’s been hard for ISIS-K to establish the narrative that the Taliban are western collaborators – considering that the NATO galaxy continues to antagonize and/or dismiss the new rulers of Kabul.

So the new ISIS-K spin is monomaniac: basically, a strategy of chaos to discredit the Taliban, with an emphasis on the latter being unable to provide security for average Afghans. That is what underlies the recent horrific attacks on Shia mosques and government infrastructure, including hospitals.

In parallel, US President Joe Biden’s “over the horizon” spin, meant to define the alleged American strategy to fight ISIS-K, has not convinced anyone, apart from NATO vassals.

Since its creation in 2015, ISIS-K continues to be financed by the same dodgy sources that fueled chaos in Syria and Iraq. The moniker itself is an attempt to misdirect, a divisive ploy straight out of the CIA’s playbook.

Historic ‘Khorasan’ comes from successive Persian empires, a vast area ranging from Persia and the Caspian all the way to northwest Afghanistan – and has nothing whatsoever to do with Salafi-jihadism and the Wahhabi lunatics who make up the terrorist group’s ranks. Furthermore, these ISIS-K jihadis are based in south-eastern Afghanistan, away from Iran’s borders, so the ‘Khorasan’ label makes zero sense.

Russian, Chinese and Iranian intel operate on the basis that the US ‘withdrawal’ from Afghanistan, as in Syria and Iraq, was not a withdrawal but a repositioning. What’s left is the trademark, undiluted American strategy of chaos executed via both direct (troops stealing Syrian oil) and indirect (ISIS-K) actors.

The scenario is self-evident when one considers that Afghanistan was the precious missing link of China’s New Silk Roads. After the US exit, Afghanistan is not only primed to fully engage with Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), but also to become a key node of Eurasia integration as a future full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU).

To hedge against these positive developments, the routine practices of the Pentagon and its NATO subsidiary remain in wait in Afghanistan, ready to disrupt political, diplomatic, economic and security progress in the country. We may be now entering a new chapter in the US Hegemony playbook: Closet Forever Wars.

The closely connected SCO

Fifth columnists are tasked with carrying the new imperial message to the West. That’s the case of Rahmatullah Nabil, former head of Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security (NDS), “the Afghan intelligence service with close ties to the CIA,” as described by Foreign Policy magazine..

In an interview presented with a series of trademark imperial lies – “law and order is disintegrating,” “Afghanistan has no friends in the international community,” “the Taliban have no diplomatic partners” – Nabil, at least, does not make a complete fool of himself.

He confirms that ISIS-K keeps recruiting, and adds that former Afghan defense/security ops are joining ISIS-K because “they see the Islamic State as a better platform for themselves.”

He’s also correct that the Taliban leadership in Kabul is “afraid the extreme and young generation of their fighters” may join ISIS-K, “which has a regional agenda.”

Russia “playing a double game” is just silly. In presidential envoy Zamir Kabulov, Moscow maintains a first-class interlocutor in constant touch with the Taliban, and would never allow the “resistance,” as in CIA assets, to be based in Tajikistan with an Afghan destabilization agenda.

On Pakistan, it’s correct that Islamabad is “trying to convince the Taliban to include pro-Pakistan technocrats in their system.” But that’s not “in return for lobbying for international recognition.” It’s a matter of responding to the Taliban’s own management needs.

The SCO is very closely connected on what they collectively expect from the Taliban. That includes an inclusive government and no influx of refugees. Uzbekistan, for instance, as the main gateway to Central Asia for Afghanistan, has committed to participating in the reconstruction business.

For its part, Tajikistan announced that China will build a $10 million military base in the geologically spectacular Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region. Countering western hysteria, Dushanbe made sure that the base will essentially host a special rapid reaction unit of the Regional Department for Organized Crime Control, subordinated to Tajikistan’s Minister of Internal Affairs.

That will include around 500 servicemen, several light armored vehicles, and drones. The base is part of a deal between Tajikistan’s Interior Ministry and China’s Ministry of State Security.

The base is a necessary compromise. Tajik President Emomali Rahmon has a serious problem with the Taliban: he refuses to recognize them, and insists on better Tajik representation in a new government in Kabul.

Beijing, for its part, never deviates from its number one priority: preventing Uighurs from the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) by all means from crossing Tajik borders to wreak havoc in Xinjiang.

So all the major SCO players are acting in tandem towards a stable Afghanistan. As for US Think Tankland, predictably, they don’t have much of a strategy, apart from praying for chaos.

*

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Pepe Escobar, born in Brazil, is a correspondent and editor-at-large at Asia Times and columnist for Consortium News and Strategic Culture in Moscow. Since the mid-1980s he’s lived and worked as a foreign correspondent in London, Paris, Milan, Los Angeles, Singapore, Bangkok. He has extensively covered Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asia to China, Iran, Iraq and the wider Middle East. Pepe is the author of Globalistan – How the Globalized World is Dissolving into Liquid War; Red Zone Blues: A Snapshot of Baghdad during the Surge. He was contributing editor to The Empire and The Crescent and Tutto in Vendita in Italy. His last two books are Empire of Chaos and 2030. Pepe is also associated with the Paris-based European Academy of Geopolitics. When not on the road he lives between Paris and Bangkok.

He is a frequent contributor to Global Research.

Featured image: American-trained Afghan forces are defecting to join ISIS-K, in what increasingly looks like a US plan to subvert the war-torn country’s recovery. (Source: The Cradle)The original source of this article is The CradleCopyright © Pepe Escobar, The Cradle, 2021

ضابط الإيقاع الدمشقي… كلّ الطرق تؤدي إلى سورية

ألثلاثاء 9 نوفمبر 2021

 محمد صادق الحسيني

لا أحد من العارفين والمطلعين على موازين القوى المترتبة على خسارة الأميركان وهزيمتهم المدوية في ديارنا سيستغرب وصول كلّ رموز الحرب الكونية على سورية تباعاً إلى دمشق، بضوء أخضر أميركي ساطع. كل ما هنالك أنه ثمة توقيت لكلّ تابع والكلّ واقف بالدور.

وصول وزير خارجية الإمارات على رأس وفد كبير إلى قصر الشعب السوري ليس بعيداً من هذه الأجواء، بل هو في صميمها.

فواشنطن قرّرت تسليم مفاتيح المنطقة دولياً للروس، وإقليمياً للإيرانيين.

قد يستغرب المواطن العربي غير المتابع لعمق ما جرى خلال العقد الماضي إذا ما سمع هذا الكلام الكبير.

ما تقوم به الإدارة الأميركية ليس سببه أن روسيا حطمت الجيش الأميركي، ولا لأنّ إيران أخرجته من المنطقة، بكلّ بساطة ولكن بحسابات دقيقة أيضاً كشف عن بعضها الرئيس الأميركي جو بايدن وهو يبرّر انسحاب قواته المذلّ من أفغانستان.

أميركا لم تعد قادرة ولا تريد دفع المزيد من الأثمان دماً وأموالاً لانتشارها في منطقتنا، لذلك من الأفضل لها الانسحاب اليوم قبل الغد.

ولكنها وهي تقوم بهذا، فإنها باقية على جوهرها المعادي للشعوب وطبيعتها الناهبة لثروات ومقدرات بلادنا.

في هذه الأثناء فهي تريد إغراء روسيا لإبعادها عن الصين استراتيجياً من جهة، وفتح باب إغراقها بكلّ مشاكل إعادة بناء دول المنطقة من جهة أخرى.

وهي تريد إغراق إيران بحروب فتنوية متنقلة إلى حين استكمالها لعمليات الهروب الكبير الذي تستعد له من كل من سورية والعراق.

لكنها في هذه الأثناء ترسل رسائلها الواضحة إلى دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي كما إلى الكيان الصهيوني، بأنها ليست مستعدة لتقاتل نيابة عنهما مطلقاً، لا ضدّ إيران، ولا من أجل إبقاء الوضع الجيوسياسي «الشرق أوسطي»  الراهن، لأن عقلها وجلّ اهتماماتها انتقلت إلى الشرق الأقصى وبحر الصين.

وحتى تتمكن واشنطن من إدارة ملف تراجعها وخروجها وتداعيات هزيمتها في غرب آسيا، فهي تبحث عن ضامن لمصالحها التجارية وغير التجارية إلى حدّ كبير في المنطقة، عبر العودة إلى الاتفاق النووي مع إيران من جهة، والدخول في تفاهمات دولية مع موسكو بدأتها في هلسينكي في ما سمّته الإبقاء على الاستقرار الاستراتيجي!

تحويل ملف الكرد في شرق سورية من الحضن الأميركي إلى الحضن الروسي، والبدء بترتيبات مصالحة وطنية في دير الزور على شاكلة ما جرى في درعا، وفتح باب عودة خط الغاز المصري والكهرباء الأردنية إلى لبنان عبر سورية، إشارتان إضافيتان لمجموع محور التحالف الإيراني الروسي السوري في مسرح عمليات محور المقاومة تحديداً، أيّ شرق سورية وفي لبنان، إيذاناً ببدء تراجع واشنطن عن ما كانت تتباهى به أيام ترامب وسمته بسياسة الضغوط القصوى على كلّ من إيران وسورية والمقاومة اللبنانية.

هذا الوضع الجديد سيطغى على سياسة بايدن إلى حين الانتخابات الفرعية للكونغرس الأميركي، والتي قد تنذر بعودة هيمنة الجمهوريين من جديد على القرار التشريعي الأميركي، ما يجعل إدارة بايدن تسير الآن وكأنها نصف عمياء، عين على الواقعية السياسية التي تجبرها على حزم حقائبها والرحيل كما أرادت إدارة ترامب أصلاً، وعين على الصراع الأيديولوجي والسياسي الداخلي الذي يدفعها إلى الإسراع في إنجاز ما طرحته من شعارات انتخابية داخلية تجعلها تضمن عودة الديمقراطيين لولاية ثانية.

أياً تكن تلك الضرورات الأميركية الداخلية، إلا أن القدر المتيقن مما يجمع عليه الأميركيون بكل أجنحتهم هو أن عليهم سحب جنودهم من بلاد العالم وتقليص نفوذهم في بلادنا من أجل إنقاذ أميركا أولاً.

أما الذين اعتادوا على تلقي التعليمات أو ربطوا اقتصادياتهم بالأساس مع رؤوس الأموال اليهودية العالمية، ومنهم بشكل خاص الإمارات وتركيا والكيان المحتل الذي هو القاعدة الأميركية الأكبر المنصبة فوق أرض فلسطين، فما عليهم الا اتباع اشارات المرور الأميركية إلى حين صدور أوامر تفكيك «مستعمراتهم» وانتهاء دور أنظمتهم!

في المقابل نحن على ثقة بأنّ قادة محور المقاومة لن تغريهم كلّ هذه الإشارات من الانحراف عن بوصلة الصراع الواضحة وضوح الشمس، وأملنا بالصديق الروسي «المقاول الدولي» المتميّز حتى الآن بأن لا يذهب بعيداً في الاسترخاء لأنّ «الموسكوبية» في فلسطين لن يحميها الغزاة والطارئين، بل أهل الأرض والحق والمبادئ السامية.

من الآن إلى حين النزال الأكبر أو منازلة ما قبل يوم القيامة نقول:

بعدما طيّبين قولوا الله…

• سورية الأسد بيضة القبان في توازنات المنطقة
• ‫ابن زايد يفتح طريق العرب: موسم العودة إلى سوريا
• وزير الخارجية الإماراتي من دمشق: سوريا بقيادة الأسد قادرة على تجاوز التحديات
• واشنطن «قلقة» من زيارة بن زايد للأسد
• بيدرسن يناقش الملف السوري في الرياض
• وهمُ القوّة ووهمُ التطبيع
• سوريا تلاقي الانفتاح بالمثل: أهلاً بإعادة الإعمار
• حوار دمشق – «قسد»… تابع: هل تفلح موسكو هذه المرة؟
• الكرد الحائرون في سوريا.. هل حسموا أمرهم؟
• هزيمة السعودية في مأرب: “إسرائيل” قلقة وأميركا تبحث عن “خطط بديلة”
• اقتراب المواجهة مع العدو الصهيوني!
• الكرامة الوطنية مسألة نسبية…
• لبنان العربيّ والأعراب والمستعربين

إعادة ترتيب الإقليم وفق الأجندة الأميركية… أو على إيقاع إنجازات محور المقاومة؟

23,10,2021

د. ميادة إبراهيم رزوق

بنظرة بانورامية لمشهد المنطقة من بحر البلطيق، مروراً بأفغانستان نحو بحر قزوين وجنوب القوقاز إلى قوى ودول محور حلف المقاومة، وكأنّ العدوين اللدودين الولايات المتحدة الأميركية وروسيا الاتحادية كلاً مع حلفائه، خاصة بعد قمة جنيف «بوتين – بايدن» في 16/06/2021  على رقعة شطرنج المنطقة يعيدون ترتيب أحجارهم وتنضيد ملفاتهم قبل الجلوس على طاولة التسويات الكبرى، والتي قد تُحسم قبل الوصول إليها إذا تدحرجت المنطقة نحو حرب كبرى شاملة، نستبعد حدوثها وفق الوقائع والمعطيات لدى المحورين.

بدأت الولايات المتحدة الأميركية وضمن مخطط الخروج الأميركي من غرب آسيا بإعادة تموضع استراتيجي جديد بترتيب مجموعة من الأوراق في عهد الإدارة الأميركية السابقة برئاسة دونالد ترامب بما يحقق نشر الفتنة وزعزعة الاستقرار، وتطويق إيران وتشديد الحصار الدبلوماسي والاقتصادي، وعرقلة مشروع الحزام والطريق الصيني، وضمان الأمن القومي لكيان الاحتلال الصهيوني، فكانت البداية مع اتفاقيات «ابراهام»، اتفاقيات التطبيع بين كيان الاحتلال الصهيوني وبعض الأنظمة الخليجية كالإمارات والبحرين بالإضافة إلى السودان (الذي لم يوقع أحرفها النهائية) والمغرب، استكمالاً لسيناريو صفقة القرن، ونقل السفارة الأميركية من تل أبيب إلى القدس، والاعتراف بالسيادة «الإسرائيلية» على الجولان المحتل، بهدف إضفاء الشرعية على كيان الاحتلال الصهيوني، وتطويق الشعب الفلسطيني، وتصفية القضية الفلسطينية التي باتت عبئاً على الأنظمة الرجعية العربية فينبغي التخلص منها، بالإضافة إلى نسج تحالفات إقليمية بأبعاد استراتيجية أخرى ترتبط بمحاولة بناء خطوط دفاع أمامية لحماية الأمن القومي لكيان الاحتلال الصهيوني، ترتكز على التعاون والتنسيق التكنولوجي والاستخبارتي والعسكري، خاصة إذا ما تضمنت عمليات رصد واعتراض جوي في مواجهة تطور قدرات محور المقاومة على مستوى الطائرات المسيرة، وصواريخ «كروز» وغيرها وفق ما تؤكده التقارير «الإسرائيلية»، وتعززت الحاجة إلى هذا المخطط، بالإضافة إلى قرار وزارة الدفاع الأميركية «البنتاغون» بنقل «إسرائيل» من القيادة الأوروبية للجيش الأميركي «إيكوم» إلى القيادة المركزية «سنتكوم» التي تشمل الشرق الأوسط، بما يسمح بتطور التنسيق بين كيان الاحتلال الصهيوني والأنظمة المطبعة استجابة لدعوات وجهتها جماعات موالية لـ «إسرائيل» من بينها «المعهد اليهودي للأمن القومي الأميركي» وهو مجموعة مقرها واشنطن تدعم التعاون العسكري الوثيق بين الولايات المتحدة الأميركية و»إسرائيل»، فقد أوضح تقرير المعهد اليهودي للأمن القومي أنه في حين أدى وجود «إسرائيل» ضمن نطاق عمليات القيادة العسكرية في أوروبا إلى منافع متبادلة واضحة على مر السنين، فإن أولوية «سنتكوم» هي «مواجهة إيران وقوى التطرف الأخرى في الشرق الأوسط». وأضاف التقرير «جميع شركائنا في المنطقة، بما في ذلك إسرائيل يتحدون حول وجهة نظر مشتركة لهذا التهديد، واتخاذ خطوات جريئة مثل الاتفاقيات الإبراهيمية لمواجهته بشكل تعاوني»، وأتى هذا الانضمام عقب إعلان السعودية في 5 كانون الثاني من العام الحالي اتفاقاً بدعم أميركي بإنهاء الخلاف مع قطر التي تستضيف أكبر قاعدة عسكرية أميركية في المنطقة، وتتمركز فيها القيادة المركزية الأميركية، وبالتالي سيتمثل ذلك بدايةً بوجود عسكري «إسرائيلي» في بلدان الأنظمة المطبعة في وفود من الضباط أو الشرطة أو الخلايا الاستخبارية، وذلك في ضوء استمرار المسار التصاعدي لمحور المقاومة في اتجاهين، اتساع نطاقه الجغرافي وتقدمه العسكري، مقابل فقدان كيان الاحتلال الصهيوني للعمق الاستراتيجي، ودونية إمكاناته على غير مستوى، وما ضاعف هذه الحاجة أيضاً فشل رهانات كيان الاحتلال على الخطط الأميركية لإسقاط النظام في إيران أو إخضاعه، كما الفشل في باقي ساحات محور المقاومة وهذا ما تضمنته تصريحات «قائد جبهة إيران» اللواء طال كالمان «رئيس الشعبة الاستراتيجية والدائرة الثالثة» لصحيفة «معاريف» بتاريخ 07/09/2021  «الأمر المدهش أنه على الرغم من الأثمان الثقيلة على المواطن الإيراني، والعقوبات الأميركية الثقيلة، والكورونا، والحضيض الاقتصادي الداخلي الأصعب في إيران منذ الحرب مع العراق في سنوات الثمانينات، إلا أنها تواصل سعــيها إلى تنفيــذ استراتيجيتها» متابعاً أن «محور المقاومة أخذ بالتوســع ويخوض معنا تنافساً استراتيجياً بعيد المدى». وأضاف» أنّ هذا التعــاون يستهدف توفير الحماية لإسرائيل في مواجهة تطور القدرات العسكرية الصاروخية والجوية لمحور المقاومة»، متابعاً: «ماوراء ذلك، يصــبح لنا عمق، فدولــة إســرائيل صغيرة وليس لديها حالياً عمــق، والصورة المعلوماتيــة المسبقة تسمح له بالاستعداد بشكل أفضــل، وأيضاً بمعالجة التهديدات البعيدة». وحذر كالمان من أنّ «تهديــد الصواريخ الدقيقة ليست بمستوى التهديد الوجــودي النووي، لكنــه ليس بعيداً عنه»، ونبّه إلى أنّ الصواريخ الدقيقة ليست حكراً على «حزب الله» في لبنان بل هي تهديد تراكمي يشمل كل ساحات الحرب، مقراً بأنّ لدى إيران مخزوناً كبيراً من القدرات الصاروخية التي تتحول إلى دقيقة بمديات  تتجاوز الـ 1000 كلم، إضافة إلى تهديدات مماثلة في اليمن والعراق وسورية، ولذلك يجب توسيع قوس المواجهة ضد إيران، ووفق ما سبق يتمكن كيان الاحتلال الصهيوني من الولوج العملياتي بدون قيود إلى البر والبحر، وبإمكانه إرسال سفنه إلى البحر الأحمر وبحر العرب وحتى الاقتراب من خليج عمان.

استمرت الإدارة الأميركية الحالية على نهج سلفها لاستكمال ترتيب أوراق أجندتها، وبخطوات متسارعة بعد قمة جنيف «بوتين- بايدن» وفق التالي:

ـ انسحبت من أفغانستان بمشهد مذل بعد أن أعادت إنتاج «داعش» وتدعيمه وتعزيزه بنقل عناصر إضافية لرفده من سورية والعراق، لضمان نشر الفوضى وتقويض الاستقرار الأمني، خاصة بعد سيطرة حركة طالبان على الحكم في أفغانستان، فبدأت هذه الحركة التكفيرية الوهابية «داعش» بتفجير المساجد والحسينيات والمدارس وقتلاً وذبحاً للأبرياء في مسلسل متواصل، حيثما وجد مسلمون من طوائف متعددة، لزرع الفتنة المذهبية بأجندة تديرها الولايات المتحدة لنشر الإرهاب والفوضى بما يقوض شراكة الصين مع الدول المجاورة ويعمل على تخريب مبادرة الحزام والطريق بكامل فروعها، ويهدد دول الجوار بتمدد الإرهاب إلى داخلها.

ـ حدوث توترات بين إيران وأذربيجان اللتين تجمعهما قواسم ثقافية واجتماعية ودينية، مع عبث تركي وحضور «إسرائيلي» وفقاً للمايسترو الأميركي:

ـ لعزل إيران عن المنطقة، من خلال منع استخدام الأراضي الإيرانية لربط منطقة نخجوان بـأذربيجان، وبالتالي قطع الاتصال الحدودي بين إيران وأرمينيا، وبالتالي قطع إحدى طرق المواصلات بين إيران وأوروبا.

ـ ربط تركيا (العضو في الناتو) ببحر قزوين عبر أذربيجان، وبالتالي توسيع حدود الناتو حتى بحر قزوين، بما يؤدي إلى تغيرات جيوسياسية في منطقة القوقاز، لن تسمح بها إيران ولجارتها الشمالية الغربية تركيا بالبدء بهذه المغامرة وتعميق هذه التوترات.

ـ تواجد قوات «إسرائيلية» وعناصر من تنظيم «داعش» على الأراضي الأذربيجانية وعلى حدود إيران، بما يجعل أذربيحان ساحة خلفية للكيان الصهيوني للتآمر على إيران، حيث من باكو ووفقاً لمسؤولين إيرانيين تمت هجمات «إسرائيلية» استهدفت البرنامج النووي الإيراني، واغتيال العالم النووي البارز محسن فخري زاده.

لذلك لجأت إيران إلى مناورة عسكرية على طول الحدود مع أذربيجان900 كلم «فاتحي خيبر» مما دفع باكو إلى العودة الدبلوماسية، حيث لدى أذربيجان مشاريع اقتصادية مهمة مع إيران مثل السكك الحديدية التي تربط أذربيجان بالخليج عبر مدينة أستارا، وكذلك خط النقل البري بين البلدين، ولايبدو أن هذه التوترات ستصل إلى أماكن خطرة.

ـ محاولة زرع كمائن متفرقة ونشر الفتن في العراق ولبنان من خلال الانتخابات العراقية، ومجزرة الطيونة في بيروت لتقليص النفوذ السياسي لتيار المقاومة والحشد الشعبي في العراق، وحزب الله في لبنان، بالإضافة إلى نزع سلاح المقاومة أو تورطه في حرب أهلية.

على المقلب الموازي يحقق المحور المناهض للهيمنة الأميركية وحلف محور المقاومة تقدماً متسارعاً في كافة الميادين نذكر منها:

ـ بدء العمل التجريبي بخط أنابيب السيل الشمالي الذي يزود أوروبا بالغاز الروسي.

ـ إنجاز الجيش اليمني الوطني واللجان الشعبية انتصارات ميدانية بمجموعة من العمليات المتتالية آخرها عمليتي فجر الانتصار وربيع النصر اللتين أدتا إلى استكمال تحرير معظم محافظة مأرب ومحافظة شبوة مدن الموارد بالغاز والنفط والماء، وبالتالي إضافة بعد اقتصادي للبعد العسكري بالتحرير.

ـ استكمال تحرير الجنوب السوري من الجماعات الإرهابية، وعودة سورية إلى دورها الإقليمي ومداها الحيوي ومكانتها الدولية عبر التنسيق الأمني بقرار الإنتــربول الدولي رفع الحظر عن دمشق، والبوابة الاقتصادية بالتنســيق مع مصر والأردن ولبنان، وفتح معبر نصيب – جابر الحــدودي، وإعــادة إحياء خط الغاز العربي، ووصول الغاز المصري والكهرباء الأردنــية إلى لبنان عبر الأراضي السورية، وكسر بعض من تفاصيل (قانون قيصر)، بعد وصول قوافل النفط الإيرانية إلى ميناء بانياس، ثم بيروت براً، بتحدّ صريح وواضح للعنجهية والبلطجة الأميركية و»الإسرائيلية».

ـ بدء الجيش العربي السوري مع حلفائه باستكمال تحرير الشمال السوري من الاحتلال التركي ومجاميع العصابات الإرهابية التكفيرية التابعة له من خلال بدء المعركة من  مدينة سرمدة الني تقع على الحدود السورية – التركية، والتي لم تتعرض للقصف منذ سبع سنوات، وشمل القصف مقرات هامة لفصيل «هيئة تحرير الشام» الإرهابي، ومنها مقر اقتصادي «شركة محروقات وتد»، بالإضافة إلى مركز نفوس وقيادة الشرطة التابعة لهم، وبالتالي استهداف كل المؤسسات التي سعت تركيا أن تثبتها في إدلب كبديل عن مؤسسات الدولة السورية، وأن أهم أهداف هذه العملية العسكرية رفض تتريك الشمال السوري، وإنهاء الوضع الشاذ فيه.

ـ عودة طهران في الأسبوع المقبل إلى مفاوضات الاتفاق النووي في فيينا بشروط إيرانية وفق سياسة الخطوة بخطوة، والتي تبدأَ بأن يقوم الأميركيون برفع العقوبات بالكامل، خاصة النفطية والمالية، لتقابلها إيران بالعودة إلى الاتفاق النووي وخفض نسبة تخصيب اليورانيوم من 60% إلى 3,5%، وخفض إنتاج أجهزة الطرد المركزي،….

وسبق كلّ ذلك معركة «سيف القدس» التي خاضتها فصائل المقاومة الفلسطينية نصرة للقدس، التي كشفت ماهية معادلة «إسرائيل أوهن من بيت العنكبوت»، نحو تكريس معادلة قواعد اشتباك جديدة «القدس تعني حرباً إقليمية»، ومنذ أسابيع قليلة عملية نفق الحرية «سجن جلبوع» التي نفذها الأسرى الأبطال الستة قبل إعادة اعتقالهم، والتي هزمت منظومة الاحتلال الأمنية والعسكرية والاستخبارية، وشكلت نقطة تحول جديدة في مسار الصراع العربي الصهيوني.

وفي الختام، نذكر ما نقلته صحيفة «جيروزاليم بوست» عن رئيس المؤتمر اليهودي العالمي رونالد لودر «إن خسارة تل أبيب التضامن الصريح عالمياً في المعركة مع غزة ضاعف الخطر الوجودي على إسرائيل»، وعلى أهمية خسارة الرأي العام، إلا أنّ الانقسام الذي يهدد وجود «إسرائيل» ليس الانقسام في الداخل «الإسرائيلي» فقط بل في العالم كله، كما تحدث عن تراجع الولاء لـ «إسرائيل»، واختراق أعدائها لحلفائها الأكثر إخلاصاً لها في الولايات المتحدة الأميركية، وهذا ماأكده أيضاً الكاتب سيث فرانتسمان بأنّ حركة المقاومة الفلسطينية وصلت إلى دعم شعبي كبير بعد الحرب الأخيرة على غزة، في الوقت الذي استهدفت الاحتجاجات إدانة «إسرائيل» في العديد من البلدان، ونشرت مقالات تنتقدها في جميع أنحاء العالم، وأضاف: «كما قادت الصين جهوداً في الأمم المتحدة لإدانة إسرائيل، واتهم أعضاء اليسار المتطرف في الحزب الديمقراطي في الولايات المتحدة إسرائيل بممارسة الفصل العنصري، ودعوا إلى وقف مبيعات الأسلحة»، كما أكد تراجع دعم «إسرائيل» حتى بين المؤيدين الرئيسيين لها في الولايات المتحدة كالإنجيليين.

في الخلاصة، لا يزال كيان الاحتلال الصهيوني يقف على «إجر ونص»، خوفاً من انتقام المقاومة اللبنانية القادم لشهدائها لا محالة، وقد يقف الآن على رجل واحدة بعد  توعد بيان غرفة عمليات حلفاء سورية  «بالرد القاسي» رداً على الغارات «الإسرائيلية» على تدمر وسط سورية التي انطلقت عبر سماء الأردن ومنطقة التنف السورية المحتلة من الأميركيين منذ خمسة أيام.

• غارات روسية سورية تستهدف مقار “تحرير الشام” في إدلب
• الجيش السوري يمنع رتلا أمريكيا من العبور إلى مدينة القامشلي (فيديو)
• سوريا “الناجي الوحيد”… تحولات جيواستراتيجية أعادت الرئيس الأسد إلى مقدمة المشهد

Under the Disguise of ‘Humanitarian Work,’ US Kicks off Central Partnership Station Exercise in Lebanon

September 22, 2021 

By Staff, Agencies

Under the disguise of “building partner capacity” in the region and “doing some humanitarian work,” the United States is conducting its first-ever Central Partnership Station mission in Lebanon amid growing calls for the expulsion of all American forces from regional countries in the aftermath of the disastrous US withdrawal from Afghanistan.

The US 5th Fleet’s spokesman Cmdr. Tim Hawkins claimed that the Central Partnership Station exercise in Lebanon “would grow the Lebanese Armed Forces’ ability to conduct missions like mine countermeasures, naval construction and disaster-related public health activities, as well as deliver goods like baby formula to the Mediterranean country.”

“The fact that [US Naval Forces Central Command] is conducting its first-ever Central Partnership Station mission is a testament to the success and the effectiveness of those previously established efforts in other regions,” Hawkins claimed in comments to Defense News on Tuesday.

About 40 US Navy and military personnel will participate in the exercise, which is set to last through September 29 and aims to foster a closer military-to-military relationship between the US and Lebanese armed forces.

Although the US mission in Afghanistan is over, and in the midst of growing calls for the complete US withdrawal from the region, particularly in Iraq and Syria, over its destabilizing activities, as a result of which the US faces record anti-American sentiments in the region, Hawkins alleged that such military-to-military engagements would result in “improved regional security and stability.”

“If we see that we had the effect desired and that it was beneficial to furthering the military-to-military relationship with the Lebanese Armed Forces, then we will certainly look to do more in the region with our partners along these lines,” he added.

The 5th Fleet’s area of operations reportedly encompasses nearly 2.5 million square miles of water area and includes the Gulf, Gulf of Oman, Red Sea and parts of the Indian Ocean.

The area includes three critical choke points at the Strait of Hormuz, the Suez Canal and the Strait of Bab-al-Mandeb and is comprised of 21 countries.

The United States has imposed sanctions against Lebanon to pressure the country over the influence Hezbollah resistance movement wields in its political and military sectors. In the 2000s, the Lebanese resistance group fought off two major wars against the Zionist occupation regime, Washington’s most treasured ally in the region.

فلسطين ترسم إيقاع المنطقة

ناصر قنديل

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  يتوهّم كثير من المسؤولين في العالم والمنطقة أن الملفات التي يقومون بنقاشها، والسياسات التي يتولون رسمها هي ما يحدد إيقاع الأحداث المقبلة، فمنهم من يعتبر العودة إلى التفاوض حول الملف النووي الإيراني الإشارة الأهم لرسم طريق الاستقرار، ومنهم يعتبر أن تفاهماً روسياً أميركياً حول سورية قد يكون التطور الذي يحكم ما عداه، ومنهم من يعطي الأولوية للحوار الجاري بين السعودية وإيران بصفته المدخل الأبرز لتغيير وجهة العلاقات السياسية وعبرها إيقاع الأحداث في المنطقة، ومنهم من ينظر لما سيلي قمة بغداد على مسار العلاقات العربية والإقليمية مع سورية باعتبارها التحول المعاكس للمسار الذي بدأ قبل عشر سنوات وتسبّب بالاضطرابات التي شهدتها المنطقة، فيغلق المسار ويعكس الاتجاه نحو استعادة التوازن والاستقرار.

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كلّ ذلك مهمّ بالتأكيد لكنه يتجاهل حقيقة وجود مسار انفجاري قادم له عنوان واحد هو فلسطين، ولا يوجد ما يستطيع وقفه، وفي حال حدوثه فلا شيء سيبقى على حاله في المنطقة، والانفجار في فلسطين لا يبدو مساراً للمستقبل البعيد ولا المتوسط بل للمستقبل القريب والقريب جداً، فحال الاحتقان ترتفع كل يوم، وما يجري في انتفاضة الأسرى والتفاعل الشعبي معها قد يكون شرارة الانتفاضة المقبلة، ولا يقابلها على مستوى الإجراءات والسياسات في كيان الاحتلال إلا ما يزيد فرص الاشتعال، حيث قيادة الكيان تنطلق في سلوكها ومواقفها من انسداد سياسي وعجز عسكري يضعانها في خانة السعي لاسترضاء المستوطنين ومجموعات التطرف التي تحوّلت منذ سنوات إلى قلب صناعة السياسة وتوازنات الانتخابات في الكيان، مع ضمور وتراجع كل الجماعات الأخرى، بينما على المقابل الفلسطيني فلا ثقة بكلّ حديث عن التفاوض، ولا قبول لكل مفاعيل التنسيق الأمني، وغضب وسخط على سلوك قيادات السلطة متصاعد منذ اغتيال الناشط نزار بنات، ويقين بأنّ المواجهة هي الوصفة الوحيدة لمنع العدوان وتخفيف ثقل قبضة الاحتلال، منذ نتائج معركة سيف القدس وما ظهرته من موازين للردع، واعتقاد بأن اللحظة الدولية المتميزة بالتراجع الأميركي فرصة لا يجب تفويتها، خصوصاً بعد الانسحاب من أفغانستان، والمناخ الإقليمي يسجل صعوداً مؤكداً لصالح محور المقاومة، خصوصاً بعد التأكيدات التي قدّمتها تجربة سفن المقاومة لفك الحصار والتراجع الأميركي- «الإسرائيلي» أمامها.

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لحظة الانفجار الآتية حكماً ستتكفل بصناعة اصطفافات تغير وجهة كلّ ما يمكن فعله لصناعة الاستقرار في الملفات التي يعتقد المسؤولون الحكوميون أنها بوابات السيطرة على توترات المنطقة، فلا العودة إلى الاتفاق النووي بين أميركا وإيران، ولا عودة سورية إلى الجامعة العربية، ولا علاقات جيدة بين السعودية وإيران، أو بين واشنطن وموسكو، ستحول دون انقسام المنطقة والعالم حول فلسطين، فعلى الأقلّ لن تستطيع واشنطن ترك تل أبيب تتلقى الصفعات المؤلمة وحيدة، وليس وارداً بالنسبة لطهران ودمشق مجرد التفكير بالمساومة على اللحظة التاريخية الموعودة لنهوض فلسطيني قادم، والإيقاع الذي سيفرضه الحدث الفلسطيني هو الذي يفسّر التباطؤ في الخطوات المطلوبة في المسارات التقليدية نحو الاستقرار، ذلك أن واشنطن وحلفاءها يتساءلون عما إذا كان كلّ انفتاح وتقدم في العلاقات مع محور المقاومة سيتحوّل إلى جوائز مجانية إذا انفجر المشهد الفلسطيني، وليس خافياً حجم السعي لمحاولات مقايضة أيّ تقدم في مسارات الانفتاح السياسي بالحصول على ضمانات تتصل بأمن كيان الاحتلال، بينما لا يمكن تفسير ثبات وتشدّد حكومات وقوى محور المقاومة إلا من باب الحرص على التمسك بإيصال هذه الرسائل للداخل الفلسطيني بأن فلسطين ستبقى البوصلة التي تحدد الخيارات، والتي لا تقبل المساومة.

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قد تتحرّك بعض المسارات السياسية ولكن الأرجح أن بلوغها نهايات حاسمة قد لا يكون متاحاً من بوابة مفاجأة فلسطينية كبرى مقبلة، وربما تكون المنطقة وتوازناتها بحاجة لجولة مواجهة تعيد ترسيم موازين القوى كمدخل للتفاوض المقبل بعدها وليس قبلها.

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Will the US Leave Iraq and Syria?

Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on SEPTEMBER 3, 2021

Posted by INTERNATIONALIST 360° on SEPTEMBER 3, 2021

Steven Sahiounie

After the chaotic exit from Afghanistan, many experts predict the withdrawal of US troops will next be from Iraq and Syria.

US President Joe Biden has said the US is no longer in the ‘nation-building’ business abroad.  George W. Bush sold the US Congress and the UK on forcing democracy down the throat of the Iraqi people, who had no experience with democracy.  After years of bloodshed, and millions of Iraqi lives lost, democracy was never established, at least not a democracy any American would recognize.

Instead of establishing a secular form of government, the US insisted on forming a sectarian government in Baghdad, were religious differences keep the Parliament in constant turmoil and divisions. Imagine the US Congress had to elect a certain number of seats for Jews, Catholics, Protestants, and Muslims.  Leaders elected not on their ability to lead, but on which place they worship at.

The US made one previous exit from Iraq, but was called back to help in the fight to defeat ISIS, which was declared achieved by Donald Trump.  But, the US troops remained.  The Iraqi Parliament declared that the US troops must leave, but the US government has refused to comply with the request of a government they created.

When the US attacked Iraq, the infrastructure was destroyed.  Hospitals, schools, electricity and water systems that had functioned under the dictator Saddam Hussein were destroyed, and never fully rebuilt.  The US spent billions on the war in Iraq, but did not spend that money on rebuilding or restoring social order.  Some people made a huge amount of money off the Iraq war, but the people did not benefit from the influx of cash.

Monday morning quarterback Senator Mitt Romney said the mission in Afghanistan is not over, as there is still Al Qaeda present.  He failed to explain the Al Qaeda presence in Idlib, Syria which is under US protection, and international aid agencies such as the UN keep the terrorists, their families and the three million people they hold hostage well fed and cared for. Why would the US government declare Al Qaeda an enemy in Afghanistan, and tolerate their occupation in Idlib with repeated UN resolutions?

The UN states member states must fight Al Qaeda wherever they are. When the US supports Al Qaeda in Idlib, it presents a serious double standard.

The US invaded Syria illegally, under the guise of fighting ISIS.  Trump declared the mission accomplished and ordered a withdrawal.  The military and war-hawks of the US Congress persuaded him to leave a few hundred troops in north east Syria to steal the oil from the largest oil field in Syria, thus preventing the Syrian people from having electricity. Currently, many areas have no electricity, and most areas have about four hours of electricity per day, due to the lack of oil for power generators.

The Kurdish separatists who aligned with the US in the fight against ISIS have ethnically cleansed the north east of Syria, causing Arabs and Christians to be homeless and displaced.  When the US troops leave, the Syrian government will resume medical facilities, schools and civil institutions there.  The oil will be used to provide electricity on the national grid. The homeless and displaced can finally return to homes and farms.

“Yankee Go Home” is a sentiment felt from Damascus to Baghdad. Syria is the only secular form of government in the Middle East, and has been a model for religious freedom and tolerance.  The US supported terrorists following Radical Islam tried to bring down the government in ‘regime change’ under Obama, but Trump cut off in 2017 the US funding for the CIA program which trained, weaponized, and paid the fighters to rape, kill and maim across Syria.

It took 20 years for the US to withdraw from Afghanistan.  Syria has been suffering from fragmentation caused by the US invasion since 2015, and Iraq’s Parliament has requested the US withdrawal in 2020. Biden has said his policy is to bring troops home from never ending wars abroad.  It is time for the US troops in Iraq and Syria to start packing, and go home in peace.

Steven Sahiounie is an award-winning journalist

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September 1, 2021

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This is what a dying empire looks like

August 30, 2021

By Aram Mirzaei for the Saker blog

These past weeks in Afghanistan have been what some would call a shit storm, in lack of better words. What is unfolding in front of our eyes is truly both a tragedy of great proportions and a spectacle of some sort I guess. After 20 years of occupation, Washington and its obedient dogs are not just retreating, they are fleeing in panic from Afghanistan. The US backed regime, just like all such puppet regimes, was fragile, corrupt and had no popular support whatsoever. This is why it collapsed after a few weeks since the start of the Taliban offensive. It was a collapse that shocked not just the Western imperialists and their propaganda tools, but even the Taliban themselves were surprised. The NATO trained and supplied Afghan Army either fled the battlefield or surrendered, often without even offering any kind of resistance.

To some of us observers, this didn’t come as a surprise at all. Those of us who have been following the war in Afghanistan for the past 2 decades are well aware of the problems that the so called Afghan armed forces have had. Rampant corruption, criminal incompetence, and drug abuse have plagued this army for as long as it has existed in its current form. It is a well-known fact that a large percentage of the Afghan armed forces were drug abusers, often getting high on heroin or opium while on duty. Furthermore, the corruption from top to bottom was unprecedented. Many police chiefs were outright rapists and pedophiles who would kidnap children to rape and kill, instead of fighting crime, and the level of turncoats who would sell arms and supplies to the Taliban was so high that most Afghan bases stood without any kind of heavy equipment or even fuel when faced against the Taliban onslaught. If you don’t believe me, then check this video: 

To say the least, morale among these soldiers and officers was at rock bottom. And why would this be a surprise? All the good fighting men had joined the Taliban or been killed in the past years. The only people left were drug abusers and opportunists. I quote a former US soldier in Afghanistan:

“By and large the Afghan National Army is recruited from the dregs of society. The good soldiers went off and joined the Taliban.

I don’t mean that lightly. I have fought the Taliban and trained and been on joint operations with ANA. The Taliban are tough, brave, well-disciplined soldiers, and frankly, I respect them. If I had been born in Afghanistan rather than America and raised with Afghan morals I likely would have joined their ranks.”

Billions of dollars were poured in by the occupying NATO powers, to prop up warlords and criminals across Afghanistan, not to create a stable society, but to buy their temporary silence and loyalty, and this is the result after twenty years. The Taliban just had to wait patiently for the occupiers to one day leave, and they even warned the NATO regimes of this inevitable reality when they said many years ago: “You have the watches, but we have the time”. Alas, the arrogant and self-worshipping West, drunk with their own imaginations of superiority based on the number of cool US warships and awesome Navy Seal gear, could not, and still cannot understand why they lost in Afghanistan.

The sheer arrogance and incompetence of those in charge over at Washington is astonishing to watch. US intelligence had at first calculated that the Kabul regime would survive months or even years, this was later revised into 30-90 days and finally, it fell in less than two weeks after the Taliban began attacking provincial capitals across the country. Kabul itself fell in less than a day! Washington’s “guy” in Kabul fled the country, reportedly taking with him millions or billions of dollars in cash to the UAE while the Taliban waltzed into the presidential palace- the same palace where Ashraf Ghani had held a speech only 48 hours earlier, vowing to “resists and push back the Taliban onslaught”.

Which takes us to the reality of today. Over the past two weeks, NATO countries and their friends have been evacuating their troops, citizens, and Afghan collaborationists in a chaotic and shameful manner reminiscent of the fall of Saigon in 1975. This is while White House fool Joe Biden and his clown Secretary of State Anthony Blinken claimed that this wouldn’t be another “Saigon moment”. Tragic scenes have since played out at Kabul airport, where people have been flocking in hopes of catching a plane to flee the country. Men who have been holding onto the side or landing gears of planes, only to fall off mid sky after take-off, stampedes and people throwing their babies off fences to US soldiers standing guard on the other side. Thousands, if not tens of thousands have been left behind as NATO forces have prioritized the evacuations of their dogs, cats, and beer kegs.

One can only help but wonder how such “sophisticated” countries with the best military forces in the galaxy can be so pathetically disorganized in their evacuations, especially since they knew they were leaving several months ago. As if the Afghan people’s misery wasn’t enough, Daesh has entered the scene now as well, and allegedly conducted a heinous terrorist attack outside the airport, killing well over 200 people in the mayhem, including 13 US soldiers. The scenes from Kabul airport on that day were the pinnacle of the misery and death that the Western imperialists have brought upon the Afghans. I say this because it is the US that has brought Daesh into Afghanistan and I believe there are several suspicious things to mention with regards to the terrorist attack of last week.

Firstly, why is it that every time that the US is withdrawing or looking to leave a conflict zone, a Daesh terrorist attack suddenly occurs against its forces. The same happened in Syria 2019, when a Daesh terrorist blew himself up in the town of Manbij, killing US troops, just as former president Donald Trump had announced his intention to withdraw US troops out of Syria. Why is Daesh, a supposed “enemy” of the US, trying its hardest to make the US continue its occupation of these countries?

Secondly, isn’t it interesting that both British and French intelligence allegedly had knowledge about an imminent terrorist attack, several hours before it took place and didn’t do anything to stop it? Isn’t it also interesting that the US who hasn’t conducted a single strike on Daesh in Afghanistan by the way, suddenly knew exactly who was behind the bombings and “took them out” with pinpoint accuracy only a day after the bombings? And thirdly, isn’t it also interesting how the Pentagon refused to even release the names and identities of the supposed “planner and facilitator” that were killed, with spokesman John Kirby holding a mock press conference and refusing to answer any question whatsoever from the multiple journalists in place?

Well, I won’t go into further speculation but I find this terrorist attack to have been plotted in one way or another by Washington itself, in order to save face in some way. Perhaps they hoped that the focus won’t be on the evacuation disaster but rather on the “strength” they showed in “confronting terrorism” even now when they are leaving.

Elsewhere, the US seems to be plotting for another civil war in Afghanistan as former Vice president Amrullah Saleh and Ahmad Massoud, the son of Ahmad Shah Massoud, the famous Mujahid during the Soviet-Afghan War are amassing forces in the still unconquered Panjshir province, to the east of Kabul. It is worrying that they are seemingly stupid enough, to think they actually stand a chance against the Taliban and are both pleading and hoping for Western support. Apparently, they didn’t learn a damn thing from Ashraf Ghani’s mistakes, or any other puppet that put their faith in the West’s “benevolence”. But no matter what Washington is plotting, they cannot escape the fact that this defeat has been humiliating for them and more humiliation is to come. Their days in Iraq and Syria are also numbered. The scenes at Kabul airport won’t just disappear so lightly as they tell the tale of a failure and a disaster that will have consequences for many years to come.

General Allen of the US occupation forces in Afghanistan once declared, drunk by his own arrogance, in the belief that they had succeeded in Afghanistan that “This is victory, this is what winning looks like”. I would like to revise that phrase into – this is what a dying empire looks like.