سقوط المشروع الكردي في سورية

The fall of the Kurdish project in Syria

أغسطس 16, 2017

Written by Nasser Kandil,

It is necessary for the Kurdish leadership in Syria to stop carefully in front of the variables which experienced by the war and in which it is a party, since it derived an additional importance and strength for its own project from the growing size of its participation with America in the title of this war; to eliminate ISIS. If the Kurdish leadership is aware that the privacy which it wants to get in Syria is fluctuating between the Syrian and the Turkish positions, then its winning in weakening the Turkish pressures by getting clear American bias will not mean getting rid of the subsequent presence of Turkey in confronting this privacy, and most importantly it will not mean the repetition of the same scenario on the Syrian bank, since its effectivity seems nonsexist at this level. Every bet on the Russian understanding and its considering a support of unacceptable formulas to Syria is a hasty bet because the ceiling of Russia will be drawn by the major balances where there is no place for tampering, and the ceiling of the Russian understanding is to open the door of dialogue and negotiation to reach a consensual solution.

The ideal scenario of the Kurdish leadership is to succeed individually in resolving the presence of ISIS in Syria, and to have control on the Syrian north-east areas under American support and the absence of Syrian-Russian participation. Thus the question that will be proposed on the next day will be about the fate of the Kurdish areas ad how to manage them; the speech of force is not useful in front of Russian-Syrian-Turkish-Iranian position that refuses to separate these areas militarily and security from Syria. So there will be for any negotiating solution one result: to end the special military formations and to integrate them in a certain formula under the leadership of the Syrian army and considering the ceiling of any political formula the consensus on a new constitution that is determined by a referendum, where the Kurdish will not have enough presence or alliances likely to win. The Americans will not hesitate to wage a war against Russia, Syria, Iran, and Turkey that they know that it will lead to Kurdish canton, they did not do that for something that is more important, but in case of stubbornness and going to confrontation the result will  bad consequences on the Kurdish aspiration, and a loss of everything achieved as a presence, which  if it was well employed it will lead to gains and political role in the equation of the unified Syrian country and privacies which will not affect its unity.

The Kurdish leadership knows that the ideal scenario is no longer possible, since the separating war with ISIS is out of its hands, and it became in Deir Al Zour. The battle of Raqqa has been hampered for more than a moth, so the need for the intervention of the Syrian army to resolve it has become necessary. The talk about the negation of the seeking to separate or to promote the idea of federalism is an ignorance of the fact related to a consensual negotiating solution as a form of rule chosen or refused by all the Syrians. The Kurdish leadership knows as well that this is refused by the majority of the Syrians and by the Syrian leadership in particular. Therefore the question about the following step in case the negotiation about federalism has failed is will the Kurdish leadership make separating steps or will it try to reduce the ceiling of negotiation towards a political solution that reserves the unity of Syria and achieves the available privacies under its ceiling.

Making a progress by one party has been experienced by the Kurdish leadership in the city of Afrin through an experience that revealed strange political childhood that was represented by changing the numbers of the cars and replacing them by special numbers for the Kurdish area, but in few hours there was a decision by Aleppo province to prevent the cars which do not have Syrian numbers to enter and to exit from and to Aleppo, so the Kurdish leadership was obliged to withdraw this decision within hours. This was a simple test for the availability of the reasons for the independence from the rest of the Syrian areas. The areas controlled by the Kurdish groups have Arab majority but they do not have neither economic nor geographical, nor popular basics that allow talking of such independence, especially because it locates on the borders with Turkey and Iraq and the Syrian depth, in the middle of a triangle that will not deal positively with this privacy and the boycotting will be the first reaction for the exit from the Syrian country. It knows that its electricity, the salaries of the employees, the phone networks, flour, and fuel are Syrian resources. So will the Kurdish leadership hasten to join Geneva talks for the political solution early and will it employ its military presence to exert pressure in order to coincide ending the special formations with the exit of the Turkish army from Syria and ending the presence of the terrorist formations?

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

 

سقوط المشروع الكردي في سورية

أغسطس 7, 2017

ناصر قنديل

– من الضروري أن تتوقّف القيادة الكردية في سورية بعناية أمام المتغيّرات التي تشهدها الحرب التي تشكل طرفاً فيها، والتي استمدّت لمشروعها الخاص وزناً إضافياً وقوة من تنامي حجم مشاركتها في عنوان هذه الحرب أميركياً، وهو القضاء على تنظيم داعش، وإذا كانت القيادة الكردية تدرك أنها الخصوصية التي تريد الحصول عليها في سورية تتحرّك بين دفّتيْ الموقفين السوري والتركي، فإنّ فوزها بإضعاف الضغوط التركية بالحصول على انحياز أميركي واضح، لا يعني التخلص من حضور تركيا اللاحق في مواجهة هذه الخصوصية، ولا يعني بصورة أشدّ، وهذا الأهمّ تكرار السيناريو ذاته على الضفة السورية وفعاليته تبدو معدومة على هذا الصعيد، وكلّ رهان على التفهّم الروسي وتصوّره سنداً لصيغ لا ترتضيها سورية يبدو مراهقة متسرّعة لأنّ سقف روسيا سترسمه التوازنات الكبرى، حيث لا مكان للدلع والترف، وسقف التفهّم الروسي هو فتح باب حوار وتفاوض لبلوغ حلّ رضائي.

– في السيناريو الأمثل للقيادة الكردية، وهو أن تنجح بمفردها بحسم وجود داعش في سورية والسيطرة على مناطق سورية الشمالية الشرقية، بدعم أميركي وغياب مشاركة روسية وسورية، سيكون السؤال المطروح في اليوم الثاني، عن مصير المناطق الكردية وكيفية إدارتها. وهو أمر لن يفيد فيه حديث القوة أمام موقف روسي سوري تركي إيراني رافض لفصل هذه المناطق عسكرياً وأمنياً عن سورية، وسيكون لأيّ حلّ تفاوضي نتيجة واحدة هي حلّ التشكيلات العسكرية الخاصة ودمجها بصيغة معينة تحت قيادة الجيش السوري، واعتبار سقف أيّ صيغة سياسية هو التوافق على دستور جديد، سيقرّره استفتاء لا يملك فيه الأكراد حضوراً كافياً ولا تحالفات مرجّحة للفوز، ولن يقف الأميركيون لحظة واحدة لخوض حرب يعرفون أنها ستصير مع روسيا وسورية وإيران وتركيا لفرض قيام كانتون كردي. وهم لم يفعلوا ذلك لما هو أهمّ بالنسبة إليهم. في حال العناد والذهاب للمواجهة ستكون النتيجة وبالاً على التطلعات الكردية وتفريطاً بكلّ ما تحقق من حضور يسمح إذا أحسن توظيفه بالحصول على مكاسب ودور سياسي في معادلة الدولة السورية الموحّدة، وحفظ الخصوصيات التي لا تمسّ وحدتها.

– تعرف القيادة الكردية أنّ هذا السيناريو المثالي لم يعُد وارداً، فالحرب الفاصلة مع داعش خرجت من بين أيديهم، وصارت في دير الزور في حضن الجيش السوري، ومعركة الرقة تتعثر منذ أكثر من شهر، وتبدو الحاجة أشدّ قوة لتدخل الجيش السوري لحسمها، والحديث عن نفي السعي للانفصال والترويج لفكرة الفدرالية تجاهل لحقيقة أنها مشروطة بحلّ تفاوضي رضائي كشكل للحكم يختاره أو يرفضه السوريين كلهم، وهي تعلم أنه مرفوض من الأغلبية السورية، ومن القيادة السورية، والسؤال عن الخطوة التي تلي فشل التفاوض لأطروحة الفدرالية، هل تذهب القيادة الكردية نحو خطوات انفصالية أم نحو تخفيض سقف التفاوض باتجاه حلّ سياسي يحفظ وحدة سورية ويحقق ما يُتاح من خصوصيات تحت سقفها؟

– الذهاب للخطوات من طرف واحد جرّبته القيادة الكردية في مدينة عفرين بتجربة كشفت مراهقة سياسية لافتة، تمثلت بتغيير أرقام السيارات واستبدالها بترقيم جديد خاص للمنطقة الكردية، وكانت النتيجة خلال ساعات بقرار محافظة حلب منع السيارات التي لا تحمل الأرقام السورية من الدخول والخروج من حلب وإليها، لتضطر القيادة الكردية للتراجع عن القرار خلال ساعات. وهذا اختبار بسيط لمدى توافر أسباب ومقوّمات كافية للاستقلال عن سائر المناطق السورية، والمناطق التي تسيطر عليها الجماعات الكردية، فيها أغلبية عربية، ولا تملك مقوّمات اقتصادية ولا جغرافية ولا سكانية تتيح الحديث عن مثل هذا الاستقلال، خصوصاً أنّها تقع على حدود تركيا والعراق والعمق السوري، وسط مثّلث لن يتعامل مع هذه الخصوصية بإيجابية وستكون المقاطعة أولى الخطوات لكلّ مفردات الخروج من عنوان الدولة السورية. وهي تعلم أنّ كهرباءها سورية ورواتب الموظفين وشبكات الهاتف والطحين والمحروقات موارد سورية، فهل تسارع القيادة الكردية إلى التموضع عند سقف الانضمام لمحادثات جنيف للحلّ السياسي مبكراً، وتضع حضورها العسكري للضغط من أجل تزامن حلّ التشكيلات الخاصة بخروج الجيش التركي من سورية وإنهاء وجود التشكيلات الإرهابية؟

Related Videos

Related Articles

مقالات مشابهة

THE US HAS OFFICIALLY LOST THE WAR IN SYRIA: REPORT

The US Has Officially Lost the War in Syria: Report

28.07.2017 

Written by Darius Shahtahmasebi; Originally appeared at TheAntiMedia.org

By ending the “secret” CIA program to arm and train Syrian rebels attempting to topple Bashar al-Assad in Syria, the Trump administration has accepted defeat in Syria, according to the Century Foundation, a prominent New York-based think tank.

The Century Foundation believes this signals an end to America’s commitment to achieving regime change in Syria and claims Washington’s attempt to topple Assad was half-hearted to begin with.

That being said, the Century Foundation also concedes that the program was doomed from the outset, stating:

“The problem with the program, which was reportedly running the CIA nearly a billion dollars a year, was not that it was under resourced or ‘insufficient in scale.’ The problem was that its logic was wrong and out of sync with the basic dynamics of the insurgency.” [emphasis added]

Whatever the program had going for it, its ludicrous nature came to light after the conflict took full swing and opposition groups gathered momentum, as the think tank explained:

“But the covert program’s theory of the case also fell apart when when [sic] it became clear that the armed opposition—which was supposed to extract political concessions from the regime—was increasingly permeated by sectarian extremists and de-linked from the civilian interlocutors with which the regime was meant to compromise. [emphasis added]

The think tank then went further to explain why this might signal the end of the regime change operation in Syria, as America’s allies have started to lose interest in pursuing an agenda they can no longer realistically achieve:

“Moreover, it’s not clear many opposition backers will be willing to continue with this or a similar effort absent America’s political cover and leading role. Opposition sponsors—including most of the Gulf states—are exhausted, if not checked out on the opposition entirely. Saudi Arabia, preoccupied now with its war in Yemen, is no longer seriously invested in regime change in Syria. Turkey has also give[n] up on regime change, instead preferring to negotiate with Russia over de-escalation and pursue its narrow national security ends. Qatar has been a rogue actor, participating in the joint arms program but also independently supporting Islamist factions in partnership with Turkey. But, as Qatar’s dispute with Saudi and the United Arab Emirates drags on, its standing internationally and with the United States specifically is precarious. Donald Trump is already telling fundraisers that Qatar funds terrorism—if Qatar decides this is the opportune moment to go all-in on the Nusra Front, well, that’s its prerogative.” [emphasis added]

There is plenty of evidence to indicate that the U.S. aimed to achieve regime change as early as 2012 — or at the latest by 2013 — yet Assad has shown no signs of stepping down some five years later. Though this is clear to the outside world, the problem is that the United States is never one to accept defeat outright. Not, at least, until they have completely left their destructive mark on everything that moves in the very country they are struggling to forcibly bring to its knees.

In other words, the Century Foundation makes some insightful points but doesn’t touch on the fact that the Pentagon backs groups in Syria that pose an equal threat to the Syrian state and is still continuing to back these groups quite heavily. The report doesn’t touch on the fact that, although it is common knowledge that the U.S. is partnering with the Kurds, the Trump administration is actually attempting to give the Kurds as much Syrian territory as possible, conveniently taking Syria’s most oil-rich region in the process. This would take the region directly out of the hands of the Syrian government, which retains an isolated military outpost there.

What happens if the Syrian government decides it doesn’t want the American-backed Kurds to take their most oil-rich city? Will regime change be back on the agenda?

It is worth noting that the Trump administration has merely axed one program that has proved incredibly ineffective and counter-intuitive but has not rolled back any of its other operations in Syria. Nevertheless, as the Century Foundation explains in its report, the U.S. has basically killed the CIA’s support base for Syria’s al-Qaeda affiliates (which, at the very least, is progress to a degree).

Despite this, the mainstream media has attempted to paint this issue as one in which Trump has handed Russia and Syria a treacherous victory in the Syrian conflict. At its peak, the CIA program was costing $1 billion a year to teach Syrian rebels potential terrorist tactics, yet Assad has only strengthened his position in the face of such an aggressive covert program.

It seems more likely that the U.S., which has vacillated between advocating and abandoning the strategy of regime change in the most schizophrenic of ways, is probably considering other approaches in regard to the Syrian conflict. At the very least, we should take note of the fact that Iran is Syria’s closest ally, and regime change in Iran has become an official U.S. strategy.

The other problem with this entire assessment is that no one is asking why on earth the United States is at war with Syria to begin with — not in relation to fighting the terror group ISIS, but more specifically, why the CIA was spending $1 billion a year to train rebels to overthrow a sovereign government in the first place.

Do we just accept this and dismiss it as unworthy of further scrutiny and criticism? If Russia spent $1 billion a year training rebels to overthrow the U.S. government, nobody would stand for it; and quite rightly so.

While the U.S. is accepting defeat when it comes to the Obama administration’s Syria strategy, its wars remain completely active in the Middle East. If anything, predicting the Trump administration’s next move is the tricky part, but you can be almost certain that the next move will not see anything close to a withdrawal from Syria or the wider Middle East region.

https://southfront.org/wp-content/plugins/fwduvp/content/video.php?path=https%3A%2F%2Fsouthfront.org%2Fgeopolitical-standoff-in-post-isis-middle-east%2F&pid=824

Related Videos

Related Articles

Syria to UN: We Demand Reparations from the US

 

The Syrian mission at the United Nations has submitted a letter demanding reparations from “the so-called international coalition led by the United States of America” for its attacks upon the Syrian nation.

“The repeated bombardments by this illegitimate ‘international coalition’ continue to claim the lives of hundreds of innocent Syrian civilians and to cause significant material losses and the near-total destruction of Syrian facilities, homes and infrastructure, as well as the utter destruction of Syrian oil and gas facilities and sites,” the letter states.

The document (click here for PDF ) is dated July 12 and was submitted to the UN secretary general as well as the president of the Security Council.

“My government insists that these attacks must come to an end, and that the members of this illegitimate coalition must bear the political and legal responsibility for the destruction of infrastructure in the Syrian Arab Republic, including responsibility for compensation.”

Of course victors in wars never pay reparations to the losers; it’s always the vice versa. But the US is facing some major internal problems right now. For one thing we are $19.9 trillion in debt. Financial bubbles seem to be the only thing keeping us afloat, and economists have been warning for several years that we are headed for a collapse similar to, if not worse than, the one of 2008. Speculation is rife as well that the dollar could lose its status as the world reserve currency, and should that happen we would see spiraling inflation. Gas could go up to $10 to $15 per gallon; food prices would rise accordingly. This could well lead to rioting in the streets.

Suppose the neocons and the deep state succeed in getting a war started with Russia? An economic collapse of this nature and the loss of the dollar as the reserve currency could lead them to look at war as their only likely means of clinging to power–which might possibly impel them to try all the harder to bring a military confrontation about–possibly even by launching a direct attack upon Russia. And suppose, if it did come to that, the US were to come out the loser in that war?

These are a lot of “ifs,” I know, but the US is an extremely torn and divided nation right now. In no other country in the world is a head of state undergoing the campaign of vicious media attacks we see presently aimed against Trump from practically every major mainstream media outlet in the country. Repeat: nowhere else in the world does open warfare like this exist between a domestic leader and a country’s media. There has not only been an impeachment resolution introduced against Trump in Congress, but now a former CIA director has called for what would essentially amount to a coup against the president should he fire Robert Mueller as special counsel.

At the same time, racial tensions are becoming increasingly pervasive among the US population, while violent clashes between “Trump supporters” and “social justice warriors” are likewise on the rise. Divisions are everywhere. As Jesus said, “Every kingdom divided against itself is brought to desolation; and every city or house divided against itself shall not stand” (Matthew 12:25).

With all this taken into consideration, it’s not terribly hard to imagine US officials at some point being brought before the International Criminal Court on war crimes charges and the American people being forced to pay reparations. And if you add up all the destruction in all of the wars the neocons have dragged us into–Iraq, Syria, Libya, Afghanistan…and possibly the bombings of Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina as well–the reparations price tag could end up being very costly indeed.

The Syrian letter also cites specific attacks carried out by the US coalition in recent months. Mentioned are an attack upon a gas station on April 22 as well as aerial bombings of gas wells on May 29 and 30. And it also mentions a bombing attack upon a village in which a number of people were killed, including children. Here is what the letter has to say about that:

On 27 May 2017, aircraft of this illegitimate coalition bombed the village of Hasu Albu Awf in the district of Shaddadah in Hasakah governorate, completely destroying many homes and killing civilians, most of them children. Of the victims, the following have been identified: Ayd Abdullah al-Husyan, Farhan Ayd al-Husayn and Amal al-Khidr, and children such as Muhammad Farhan al-Husayn, born in 2007, Sarah Farhan al-Husayn, born in 2009, Ibrahim Farhan al-Husayn, born in 2010, Zahrah Farhan al-Husayn, born in 2016, and Yusuf Fariq al-Husayn, born in 2016.

The Syrians only seem to be tallying up destruction and deaths caused by directCoalition attacks; they do not, at least for now, seem to be factoring in depredations and atrocities carried out by our proxies in this fight, the so-called “moderate rebels,” and of course now the Kurds. But what if–supposing a war crimes trial does happen to take place at some time in the future–these sorrows get added onto the list of charges as well? We’re talking about devastation, carnage, extirpation on an almost unimaginable scale. The following video, shot last year, shows destruction in Homs, Syria’s third largest city:

And keep in mind, that’s just one city. We or our proxies have wreaked havoc of this nature upon pretty much the entire country.

Last month I reported that the US had set up at least three military bases inside Syria. Now, according to a report here, the number is up to ten. Do the neocons and the media owners who’ve been promoting this regime change criminal fiasco give a hoot that American taxpayers could be on the hook for reparations at some point? Somehow I doubt they’ve given it much thought or that it would even concern them greatly if things turned out that way. We might have to kiss Social Security and Medicare goodbye, and financing for public schools could dry up, but why should any of that matter to them?

Certain economists are now observing a major global power shift from the West to the East, and of course history tells us that no empire lasts forever, that they all fall sooner or later. The American people should demand of our government that it cease immediately all involvement in the Syrian conflict. Get out. Now. Before even worse crimes are committed that we may at some point be held accountable for.

Syria Summary – Consolidating The West – Marching East

 

By Moon Of Alabama

July 23, 2017 “Information Clearing House” – There were no major changes  in the situation in Syria since our last post. Several smaller steps have further consolidated the position of the government of Syria and its allies while the positions of its enemies continue to deteriorate.


Source: Fabrice Balanche/WINEP – bigger (with legend)

In the north-west Idleb governate and the city of Idleb saw new infighting between Ahrar al-Sham and al-Qaeda in Syria under its current moniker Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Ahrar, historically also an al-Qaeda offspring, was supported by Qatar and Turkey while al-Qaeda in Syria (aka Jabhat al Nusra aka HTS) was said to have support from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Rudiments of local CIA paid Free Syrian Army gangs are intermixed with these. Their primary task was to collect supplies from the CIA in Turkey and to distribute those to their friends in al-Qaeda and Ahrar al-Sham.

The spat between Qatar and Saudi Arabia mostly ended their interest in their proxies in Syria. The Trump administration decided to end the CIA support program for its FSA proxies in the north-west (but not for others elsewhere). This was a significant change of the situation for each group.

After losing their paymasters the local FSA gangs melted away. Ahrar held on to the border crossings with Turkey and collected “taxes” for everything that went through them. Al-Qaeda in Syria needed money. It attacked Ahrar al-Sham to eliminate the competition and to gain control over the only income source left. Last week al-Qaeda overran nearly all Ahrar al-Sham positions. It managed to capture and hold the Bab al-Hawa border station with Turkey. Taxing all trucks going through is a very significant sources of money. Al-Qaeda will now feed off all im- and exports between the Idleb area and Turkey. Ahrar al-Sham is practically done. It lost most of its weapon and ammunition storages and several subgroups left to join with al-Qaeda in Syria.

In an effort to support Ahrar al-Sham Turkey transferred some of its Syrian proxies from the Euphrates Shield area it holds north-east of Aleppo towards the Turkish side of Idleb border station. But those forces are too few and too little motivated to take up al-Qaeda in Syria. Ahrar is now too depleted and weak to win and control Idleb. The Turkish move was too little too late. Idleb is now for most parts consolidated al-Qaeda territory.

The usual “expert” propagandists have long claimed that Ahrar and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) had no longer anything at all to do with the original al-Qaeda. But today al-Qaeda central published a letter that asks both of these groups to stop there infighting. What will those propaganda goons make out of that?

South from Idleb a pocket of various insurgent groups (Ahrar, al-Qaeda, ISIS) controls the mountains around the Lebanese city of Arsal right next to the border with Syria. In June several Lebanese army personal were killed in the area. The Takfiri insurgent groups are a continuing danger to Lebanon as well as to Syria. Several offers for their transfer to Idleb were rejected.

Last week a united front of Lebanese and Syrian forces started to clean up the pocket and to eliminate all insurgents in area. The Lebanese army took control of Arsal city and will protect it against infiltration. About 5,000 Hizbullah fighters were allocated to attack the insurgents within Lebanon while 3,500 Syrian army personal will mop them up from the Syrian side. The Syrian air-force provides support within Lebanon and Syria. The Hariri government of Lebanon (a Saudi puppet) as well as the U.S. have agreed to the operation. So far it ran without a hitch. After several losses on the first day Hizbullah gained significant ground (see map below) during the last two or three days. Nearly half of the insurgent area is already under control and it will not take long for the rest to be liberated. Those insurgents who do not want to get killed and give up their fight may be send to Idleb where they can join the infighting between their brothers.


bigger

The U.S. and Russia had agreed on a deescalation zone further south next to the border with Israel and Jordan. While Israel was consulted on the issue it later voiced disagreement. The Israeli government wants a permanent U.S. forces in the area to cover the Israeli occupation of the Syrian Golan height. Neither the Trump administration nor the U.S. military have any interested in such a costly entanglement. Israel has long paid, supplied and supported Takifiri groups in the area. It gave them fire support whenever they were in fighting the Syrian government forces. The deescalation agreement foresees the supervision of the deescalation area by Russian military policy. That regime will be installed during the next few weeks and further Israeli shenanigans in the area will become difficult. Russia will react harshly against any interference with its troops’ task.

In the north-east the Kurdish YPG is the U.S. proxy forces for the fight against ISIS in Raqqa. When the YPG submitted to U.S. command was told (video) to rename itself and became the “Syrian Democratic Forces”. It is still the same anarcho-marxist cult that it was before. It is still the same group that is killing Turkish soldiers within Turkey. The U.S. military believes that it can sustain the support for the group and continue to occupy the north-east of Syria after ISIS is defeated:

U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis last month left open the possibility of longer-term assistance to Kurdish YPG militia in Syria, saying the United States may need to supply them weapons and equipment even after the capture of Islamic State’s Syria stronghold of Raqqa.

The U.S. plan to split up Syria and Iraq after ISIS is defeated is still in force. But neither the Turkish nor the Iraqi nor the Syrian government will allow the consolidation of a U.S. protected Kurdish minority in east-Syria that they all see as a threat to their sovereignty:

The question remains: how can new Kurdistan states” survive with four countries surrounding it (Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Iran), all determined to do everything to neutralise a future Kurdish state in Mesopotamia and/or Bilad al-Sham? The Kurds really believe they can rely on two US and one British military bases in Kurdistan Iraq and on Saudi Arabia monies, and on six US military bases in the north of Syria to impose their “state”?

The YPG/SDF has already huge difficulties to defeat ISIS in Raqqa. There is little progress but the losses are considerable. Last week it had to discontinue its attack and wait for fresh forces to arrive. Raqqa is only a medium size city but with many high-rise buildings and a still significant population. Bombing support by the U.S. and heavy artillery shelling will be requited to eliminate ISIS from the city. This may well take several additional months. The city will be destroyed and the attacking Kurds will have high losses. There will be many civilian casualties. All this for a city that even after ISIS is defeated will never submit to Kurdish control and will eventually fall back to the Syrian government. One wonders how the political leadership of the YPG will justify this costly effort when questioned by its constituency.

On the southern bank of the Euphrates the Syrian government forces have now encapsulated the SDF forces around Raqqa. They make continues progress towards Deir Ezzor where a Syrian government forces is still under siege of ISIS.


Source: Weekend Warrior/@evil_SDOC – bigger

The Syrian government attack against ISIS around Deir Ezzor will come on multiple axes. But there are still some 80 kilometers to go and even though the area is mostly an empty semi-desert ISIS commandos are still active there. Only last week some 25 Syrian soldiers were killed in one ISIS commando attack at the T-3 pumping station near Palmyra.

The Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov was interviewed (video) by some (know-nothing) journalist of NBC. He rejected the claims of a stop of CIA support to the insurgents (25:20):

“I understand that the US supports much more groups than just the ones, which were announced as being left without the American weapons.”

Lavrov also warned against any thoughts of establishing permanent U.S. bases in Syria.

This article was first published by Moon Of Alabama 

The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Information Clearing House.

Click for SpanishGermanDutchDanishFrench, translation- Note- Translation may take a moment to load.

Are the Kurds crazy?

Read on and we’ll tell you


By Ziad Fadel, Syrianperspective

The media is abuzz with news that the Caliph of Cockadoodledoo is not dead, but alive, somewhere in Syria.  It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that that area in Syria will be where American forces and allies are operating.  After all, what could possibly be more dramatic than Donald Trump’s victory over the modern world’s eidos of evil, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdaadi.  His triumph will be greater than Obama’s when the former president basked onanistically in his own self-made glory after assassinating the malevolent, Usaamaa Bin Laadin.

I reported that Al-Baghdaadi was killed 1 year ago by the Syrian Air Force at Al-Mayaadeen.  I hold to my report and consider the issue closed.  It is my argument that the Saddamist Iraqi officers running ISIS are deliberately concealing his death the way the Taliban concealed the death of their leader, Mullah Umar.  If I am wrong, then, I will own up to it.  Yet, I can sense the vibrations of falsehood and deceit all around me.  Is it possible that the Caliph is the ultimate “one hit wonder”?  He has only been seen one time since his sleep-inducing speech at the Al-Noori Mosque in Mosul.

Isn’t it interesting how “sources” emanating from the Kurds in Iraq are trumpeting his rebirth.  Why, it would seem the Americans are planning to bomb Al-Raqqa and conveniently find that one of their bombs landed right on the cringing Caliph turning him into thousands of unidentifiable particles.  Pieces of his body will be flown to England or Germany where unnamed, anonymous, forensic specialists will be able to “confirm” the identity of this blackguard whose rise to eminence was engineered by United States and whose demise was concocted by his self-same creators.  I don’t know about you, folks, but, I think the fiction writers at Langley are working hard to make all this happen.

Like the Mummy played by Boris Karloff in the classic original or the Mummy produced by Hammer Films and played by Christopher Lee, this Caliph is about to undergo a rare treat:  Resurrection of the Body!  Hollywood can do anything, even at Shepperton Studios outside London.  Like Lazarus or a myriad movie psychopaths, he will undergo extinction and rebirth.  I just can’t wait until it comes to a theater near my home.

There is no question any longer about the Kurds going mad.  They are putting statehood to a referendum which the Iranians have called “ill-advised” and the Turks have called “casus belli”.  Needless to say, the United States, anxious to carve Syria up according to plans made for them by the European settlers of the Zionist Obscenity, is behind all this silliness.  And Kurds have, evidently, swallowed the narrative, hook, line and sinker.  Masoud Barazaani, the Iranian-born septuagenarian leader of the Iraqi Kurds, thinks he’s found that Irish pot at the end of the rainbow. He might be surprised to learn that the pot is one used in British bedrooms and dumped out regularly by Kurdish chamberlains.

It appears to many of us that the Kurds have been enlivened by the promises of Donald Trump.  Unaware that the Kurds have been snookered by the Treaty of Lausanne, (because Mr. Trump simply doesn’t read anything), and have been the victims of an entirely endless concatenation of promises, treaties and covenants, he actually thinks the Kurds are stupid enough to fall for his razz-ma-tazz NYC jive. Well,……….they are!  Jokes about Kurdish ignorance are as common as Polish jokes in the U.S.  And that’s because the Kurds keep doing silly things like believing American and British lies.  If the truth be told, the only man who ever kept his promise to the Kurds was Saddam Hussein who vowed, in private, to kill them all and unleashed his cousin, Chemical Ali, to make good on that vow.

Always stateless, they have pined for their own state since time immemorial.  But, the Good Lord works in strange ways.  You see, God in all his magnificence platzed these unfortunates in an area, not only devoid of any access to the sea, but, also, an area populated by everybody else, including Arabs, Iranians, Ayzidis, Chaldeans, Syriacs, Armenians, Assyrians, Azeris, Greeks and even, probably, Trobriand Warriors, Inuits and Amazons, to name but a few.

They have played important roles in Middle Eastern history by producing some of the greatest leaders in aggressive political Islam, not the least of whom is the legendary general and king, SALAAHUDEEN AL-AYYOOBI, who is actually more popular in Europe than he is in the Arab Fertile Crescent.  Saladin, as he is known in the West, was lionized in the movie “Kingdom of Heaven” directed by Ridley Scott.  The movie drew raves in Kobane, but irked all American Evangelists and Pentecostals who viewed the movie as propaganda for the Koran.  It shouldn’t be surprising to learn that the actor who played the role of Saladin was an Arab Syrian named Ghassaan Mas’ood.  Arabs still believe to this day that Saladin was an Arab although you would think that Saladin’s grandfather’s name, Shirkawaih, would be a dead give-away that the Ayyubid king was anything but Arab.

The plan is clear.  I have written about it before.  The army being trained by the Yanks at Al-Tanf on the Jordanteezian border will meet up with the Kurdish heroes after the latter gloriously liberate Al-Raqqa.  Together, these juggernauts will interdict the Baghdad to Damascus Highway and squelch Iranian hopes of reaching the Syrian littoral and/or the boundaries of historic Palestine.  Like the Iranians couldn’t figure that one out.

Well, folks, the big bad army at Al-Tanf is now wedged in between a rock and a hard place.  Iranian-trained Iraqi and Afghan fighters, Hizbollah officers, Syrian Army troops and Popular Defense Committee fighters, all bristling with arms, have now poisoned the well and appear to have junked the entire plan.  With Jaysh Al-Islam now falling apart thanks to Saudi Arabian connivance and unbridled stinginess, it appears that the dream of a Southern Front has given way to a much-needed truce back by the local populations,  It’s all going so dreadfully for the American, Zionist and British planners.  So dreadful that they are packing their bags loaded with Syrian-made rosaries and boxes of baqlaawa.

But, what about the Turks?  We are assuming that the clown in the White House has promised the Kurds the world.  What could those promises entail?  Will the U.S. challenge Turkish revanchism in northern Syria?  If the U.S. does that, the entire NATO alliance goes up in smoke.  It’s kind of like wishful thinking.  Trump paraded his anti-NATO message throughout his campaign and this might be his chance to really put the kibosh on the entire alliance.

Will the Turks balk if the U.S. keeps its word to the Kurds?  I don’t know.  Such a scenario seems to be the kind that would cause a fissure in the party ruled by Sultan Erdoghan or, at least, bring about huge demonstrations with Turks and Kurds all demanding the ouster of the Big Cheese in Ankara.  If the Kurds are allowed to announce the creation of their new state, what will Syria and Iran do?  Will they balk at confronting the U.S.?  Will we see the start of a new insurgency aimed at toppling the PKK or PYG or will we see Iraqi forces moving in on Barazaani?

To be brutally frank, I don’t think the U.S. has thought this one through.  It appears that the CIA is taking its cues from Tel Aviv while everybody else is using a Ouija Board.  Inasmuch as the Syrian-Iranian-Russian plans appear to be 10 removes ahead, the American one is best described as retrograde – every step forward characterized by 10 steps backward – and there is no end in sight for the anarchy in American foreign policy.  I only hope that the Kurds wake up before it’s just too late.

Ziad


SOURCES:
Ziad Fadel - SyrianPerspective
Attorney for 35 years and Supreme Court, 
Certified Interpreter for Arabic/English
~
Submitted by SyrianPatriots 
The real SyrianFreePress.NETwork at:
https://syrianfreepress.wordpress.com/2017/07/20/kurds-crazy/
~
Re-publications are welcome, but we kindly ask you,
to facilitate the correct information's diffusion,
to cite all these original links and sources.

POPULAR MOBILIZATION UNITS: ESTABLISHMENT, WAR ON ISIS, ROLE IN FUTURE OF IRAQ

South Front

Popular Mobilization Units: Establishment, War On ISIS, Role In Future Of Iraq

In June 2014, the so-called Islamic State (IS) occupied about one-third of Iraq’s territory, including Iraq’s second largest city, Mosul. It meant the radical islamists were close to capturing Baghdad and imposing its authority over all of Iraq. At that point the Iraqi government recognized the real danger of the situation and started forming militia units to liberate the country from IS. The Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) played a decisive role in that process.

The PMU (Al-HashdAl-Sha’abi) are pro-government forces operating under the formal leadership of the Iraqi military and consisting of about 70 factions. They were formed at the directive of Iraqi religious authorities after IS seized large swaths of territory in several provinces north of Baghdad in 2014.

Establishment history

One of the internal political factors which led to the PMU’s appearance in Iraq was the failure of state capacity in the realm of national security, against the backdrop of the rise of IS influence. The fall of Mosul due to massive corruption and Iraqi army’s inability to carry out its key functions meant then-PM Maliki lost faith in the armed forces. According to former Minister of Interior Mohammed Al-Ghabban, “The PMU is a unique, successful and necessary experience that was produced by the period.”

Popular Mobilization Units: Establishment, War On ISIS, Role In Future Of Iraq

Click to see the full-size image

Having armed loyal Shia militias, in contrast to the doubtfully reliable multi-ethnic Iraq units, turned out to to be a far more effective means of restoring order.

On June 15, 204, the leader of Iraqi Shia Ayatollah Ali al-Husseini al-Sistani issued a fatwa calling for struggle against IS and establishing the PMU. One should note here that Sistani did not limit his fatwa to Iraqi Shia. He insisted on characterizing the national mobilization forces as a national institution with the participation of all ethnic, religious, and social groups.

Composition

The core of the PMU are such armed Iraqi Shia formation as the Badr Organization, Asaib ahl al-Haq, Kata’ib Hezbollah, Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada, Harakat Hezbollahal-Nujaba, Kata’ib al-Imam Ali, and Kata’ib Jund al-Imam. These units collaborate with certain Sunni tribes in the Salaheddin, Niniveh, and Anbar provinces that were occupied by IS. In addition, PMU includes units consisting of Christians, Turkmen, Kurds, and Yazidis.

Badr Organization. This formation was created in 2003 from the Badr Brigades, the paramilitary organization of the Shia Islamist party “Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq” (ISCI). Its leader is Hadi Al-Amiri. At present it is not only a military organization but also a political party with 22 seats in Iraqi parliament. Its military units are 10 to 15 thousand troops strong. Its units were spotted in every PMU operation against IS.

Asaib ahl al-Haq (League of Righteous People).  This group was formed in 2006 and is closely tied to Lebanese Hezbollah. Its ideology supports the official line of Iran’s leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Its leader is Qais al-Khazali. As of 2016, it had about 10 thousand troops. Its subunit, called Haidar al-Karar Brigades, is operating on Syria’s territory.

Kata’ib Hezbollah (Battalions of the Party of God). This organization was formed in 2003 in order to resist the US invasion of Iraq. Led by Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and has up to 30 thousand troops. Its fighters also support government forces in Syria.

Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada (Martyrs of Sayyid Battalions). Militarized Iraqi Shia militia. Formed in 2013 to defend “Shia holy sites around the world” and preserving the country’s unity. Led by Abu Mustafa al-Sheibani who used to be a member of Iraq’s Supreme Islamic Council. These units also fight in Syria in support of the government, mainly in Damascus province. No information on personnel strength.

Harakat Hezbollahal-Nujaba (Movement of the Party of God’s Nobles). Formed in 2013 in response to the drawn-out war in Syria and to disputes with Asaib ahl al-Haq leadership. The two groups still maintain close ties and often cooperate on the battlefield. Led by Sheikh Akram al-Kaabi whose ideology is consistent with that of Ayatollah Khamenei. No information on strength. These units also operate in Syria.

Kata’ib al-Imam Ali (Imam Ali Battalions). Armed wing of the Iraq Islamic Movement. Formed in June 2014 in response to IS aggression. Led by Shibl al-Zayd who earlier fought in the Mahdi Army under Moqtada al-Sadr. Its distinguishing feature is a unit formed from Christians, the Spirit of God Jesus Son of Mary Battalions. No data on strength. Its units participated in liberating Palmyra, battles for Tikrit, and the siege of Mosul.

Kata’ib Jund al-Imam (The Imam’s Soldiers’ Battalions). Its leader ‘Abu Ja’afar’ Ahmed al-Asadi is the PMU press secretary. Its ideology is consistent with that of Khamenei. No data on strength. Its units participated in the liberation of Baiji (2014-15).

Popular Mobilization Units: Establishment, War On ISIS, Role In Future Of Iraq

Ahmed al-Asadi

By various estimates, the PMU today is 60-90 thousand strong. The national mobilization reserve on Iraq’s territory is up to 3 million, including women. National mobilization forces also include support units (combat engineers, medical, logistics, media). Most PMU fighters have significant combat experience amassed during the US invasion of Iraq.

The PMU is headed by Falih al-Fayyadh whose deputy and military commander is Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, an engineer. In military respects the PMU are subordinate to the Iraqi army and executive authority. One should also add that the PMU has several HQs in Baghdad and Najaf.

Popular Mobilization Units: Establishment, War On ISIS, Role In Future Of Iraq

Falih al-Fayyadh

Iraqi government is supporting the PMU both militarily and financially. Its budget is about 1.16 trillion Iraqi pounds. Iraq’s population is making major financial contributions to the PMU. Weapons and munitions come mainly from neighboring Iran. The government of Iran, Hezbollah, and the Syrian Arab Army have sent their best-trained officers and junior commanders to the PMU units in order to increase their combat effectiveness.

Popular Mobilization Units: Establishment, War On ISIS, Role In Future Of Iraq

Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis

Weapons and equipment

PMU have a large number of Soviet-made APCs provided by the Iraqi army, and also many repaired and overhauled armored vehicles. Armor provided by Iran (such as BMP-1s, as well as T-55 and T-72 tanks and their clones) is also found in PMU. Moreover, PMU has been observed using US-made armor (M1 Abrams, M113 APCs, Humvees, MRAPs). PMU manufactures and makes extensive use of improvised rockets and munitions, and also perform major engineering preparation of the battlefield, including river crossings, fortifications, and airfields.

Popular Mobilization Units: Establishment, War On ISIS, Role In Future Of Iraq

Click to see the full-size image

Operations

Since the moment of its creation, PMU conducted many defensive and offensive ops against IS. The first major success is the lifting of the blockade off Amirli, in Salahaddin province in June-August 2014. Turkmen units and fighters from Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq particularly distinguished themselves in this fight. From October through December 2014, PMU liberated Dhuluʿiya and Jurf Al Sakhar.

In November 2014 the operation to liberate Anbar province capital Ramade was launched, which resulted in a decisive victory of popular mobilization forces and the Iraqi army. Radical islamists brutally killed over 1200 inhabitants, whose bodies were found in the city and its outskirts. This victory had a major psychological impact and revealed the true face of the adherents of the “one true Islam.”

The operation to liberate Baiji took place between December 2014 and October 2015. The city was home to a large oil refinery and also a construction materials factory. Participants in this battle included Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, Kata’ibHezbollah, Badr Organization subunits, and others. The road connecting Baiji to Baghdad was seized by government forces which allowed them to use the city as a jumping off point for offensive on Mosul.

The battle for the capital of Salahaddin province, Tikrit, took place in March and April 2015, with PMU support. This operation saw the participation of Asaib ahl al-Haq, Kata’ib al-Imam Ali, Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada, subunits of the Badr Organization, Turkmen formations (16-th Brigade) as well as Sunni militia, the Martyrs of Salahiddeen (up to 5,000 fighters).

In early March 2016, the Operation Imam Ali al-Hadi was initiated in order to liberate Samara in Salahaddin province. All PMU units participated in support of federal police and Iraqi army. This operation had several objectives: liberating Baghdad and Salahaddin provinces, ensuring access to the tombs of two military imams, surrounding Anbar province, and liberating Samarra.

On May 23, 2016, Iraqi PM Haidar al-Abbadi announced Operation Destruction of Terrorism to liberate Falluja. This operation saw the participation of Iraqi army, federal police, the Golden Division, PMU units, and local militias. PMU participation was limited to fighting IS militants on the outskirts of Falluja and the Khaldiya island. The city was liberated on June 26.

It’s possible that the most important PMU achievement is its contribution to liberating Mosul, which began on October 17, 2016. PMU did not participate directly in the assault, but played an important role in besieging the city from direction of Tal-Afar. These operations cut off IS fighters’ retreat corridors toward Syria, and blocked possible reinforcements from Syria. The Mosul city itself was taken under control by government forces, but the operation is continuing since not all the militants have been eliminated.

Separately, the PMU also launched an effort aimed at reaching the border with Syria west of Tal Afar. PMU fighters liberated a large area from ISIS, including Al-Baaj, al-Qayrawan and Hatar, and reached the border with Syria. Controlling a part of the Syrian-Iraqi border, the PMU once again confirmed its important role in the ongoing anti-ISIS effort in Syria and Iraq and set a foothold for further operations in the border area.

The PMU are also playing an important humanitarian role, using their volunteers to collect contributions, distribute humanitarian aid, and provide medical assistance to civilians forced to leave their homes by the fighting. The PMU dramatically transformed the battlefield since it is they who undermined IS ascendancy. They were able to rapidly concentrate a large number of troops in a given sector and deploy units without the need to coordinate with higher HQs. One should also note the media component of PMU operations, which use IS’ own weapon against it. Media were used to organize objective coverage of operations which took public criticism into account.

Role in future political life of Iraq

The liberation of Mosul, IS military defeats in Syria, and the announced death of its leader, have placed a new question on the agenda—who will govern Iraq.

Western media are circulating information that Iraq’s Sunnis have begun to form a new insurgency. Tarikat Nakshbandi, Revolutionary Brigades of 1920, and Khavija City Baathists in the Kirkuk province have declared their intent to fight against the current Iraqi government after IS is destroyed.

Popular Mobilization Units: Establishment, War On ISIS, Role In Future Of Iraq

Click to see the full-size image

Army of the Men of the Naqshbandi Order. The armed wing of the Tarikat Nakshbandi Sufi order. By some estimates, its size and influence are second only to the IS. It has some 5 thousand fighters. It waged guerrilla warfare against US forces and Iraqi government forces. Remarkably, in June 2014 they participated in the assault on Mosul alongside IS. Its leader, Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri was the Deputy Chairman of Iraq’s Revolutionary Command Council between 1979 and 2003, and right now is one of the most US-sought high-ranking Saddam Hussein-era officials.

Therefore the defeat of IS will only be to their benefit, since it will eliminate the main competitor, and moreover after IS terror any other group looks more attractive to the Sunnis.

Moreover, with the defeat of IS Al-Qaeda could also reinvent itself, though it seems unlikely. IS collapse may show islamists of the whole world that Al-Qaeda’s strategy to establish a khalifate only in the final stage of the jihad, when the entire population already unconditionally shares jihadist ideology, is more productive than a khalifate established by violence. However, al-Qaeda currently does not play the role in the world of radical Islam that it played 10-15 years ago.

One also shouldn’t dismiss IS. The physical suppression of IS and Shia celebrations will hardly have a positive effect on Iraqi and Syrian Sunni dispositions. One can’t rule out new Sunni terrorist groups. Since the start of the Mosul battle, IS militants were able to carry out several major and bloody terror attacks in various parts of Iraq, including Kirkuk, Tikrit, Samarra, and Baghdad. With IS transitioning to guerrilla war after military defeat in Iraq and Syria, one can expect more of them. And it will be more difficult to determine who, radical Sunnis or IS survivors, is behind them.

One may draw a conclusion from the Middle East chaos that US policies have totally failed. But that would be incorrect. US will continue to exert significant influence on political processes. If one were to leave everything as it is, Iran would fill the created vacuum using Shia militias which exist to varying extent in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq. This will threaten the positions of such countries as Israel and Jordan.

The relations between Iraqi Kurds and the government are also complex. The Iraqi Kurdistan is a self-sufficient autonomous entity with own administration, economy, police, and army. Moreover, a referendum is planned for Sept. 25, 2017 on Iraqi Kurdistan independence, which can’t help but create tensions with Iraq’s federal government and with minorities who live on IK territory (Turkomen, Sunni Arabs, Shia Arabs). The Arab-Kurd relations are mde worse by the memory of Saddam Hussein’s repressions during the Iran-Iraq war, and the Kurds’ active support of the US administration during its occupation of Iraq.

As far as PMU future is concerned, there are several nuances. PMU has no single political leader as it is a militarized entity. There are current and potential frictions within PMU due to competition for power among three factions: Khamenei’s, Ali al-Sistani’s, and Moqtada al-Sadr’s.

The Khamenei faction includes several relatively small entities formed by Iran. Its leaders are proud of that affiliation, emphasizing their religious obedience to Khamenei. These groups include, for example, Saraya Khurasani and Kata’ib Abu Fadhlal-Abbas. This faction has the aim of furthering Iranian interests in Syria, and protecting Iran’s border regions. These militarized formations are either fully formed political parties, or are becoming them in anticipation of planned 2018 provincial and parliamentary elections. These groups are close to former PM Maliki, who convinced them to join the Coalition for Rule of Law during the Iraq parliamentary elections in 2014. Though initially formed as military organizations, these formations have become genuine political parties under former PM’s leadership.

Popular Mobilization Units: Establishment, War On ISIS, Role In Future Of Iraq

Click to see the full-size image

The second PMU faction includes several military formations which swore allegiance to the supreme leader of Iraqi Shia, Ayatollah Sistani, and whose interests are non-political. They were formed exclusively by Sistani’s fatwa to protect Iraqi Shia holy sites and literate territory from IS. In 2014, there was a real threat that IS could destroy Shia holy sites in Baghdad and other provinces. This faction’s main formations are Saraya al-Ataba al-Abbasiya, Saraya al-Ataba al-Hussainiya, Saraya al-Ataba al-Alawiya, and Liwa ‘Al ial-Akbar. Each of those names corresponds to one of the four sacred mosques in Kadhimi, Karbala, and Najaf. According to some of leaders and members of these groups, they will be disbanded as soon as IS threat dissipates. This view is based on Sistani’s fatwa being issued in response to a specific threat and having a temporary character. Their key mission is protecting Shia zones and obeying Sistani’s orders. It means this faction’s groups could be disbanded or integrated into Iraqi military.

Peace regiments (Sarai al-Salam) were formed by radical Shia leader Moqtada al-Sadr right after the slaughter perpertrated by radical islamists in 2014 in Camp Speicher. This amounted to rebranding the Mahdi Army which was disbanded in 2008 but retained its core of commanders and specialists. They were easily remobilized, since Sadr had more experience working with militarized formations than other leaders. By some estimates Sarai al-Salam could quickly mobilize up to 100,000 men. According to faction leaders, its power is not limited by number of volunteers but by shortage of resources, particularly money and military equipment. That’s because, unlike other factions, Moqtada al-Sadr’s group is largely cut off from Iranian funding. The movement, and its semi-military character, is popular in Iraq due to its activities in Iraq prior to US invasion in 2003. Unlike other parties and military groups, Sadrists were not part of the elite that returned to Iraq after US-led invasion. The movement was embedded with ordinary Iraqi citizens, not elites. Sadr has charted his own course, to the disappointment of Iran’s leaders who poured resources into Mahdi Army in 2003-10. Today Sadr and his militarized formations have a strong pro-national position, reject Khamenei’s politics, and are against the presence of any foreign troops in Iraq. This stance has introduced confusion concerning the role Sarai al-Salam in PMU. From time to time, Sadr’s supporters claim they are part of PMU, yet in other instances they claim they are not. This is partly the result of not recognizing Khamenei’s faction as part of PMU, and an even greater rejection of Iranian influence and of former PM Maliki in Iraq. However, this faction finds it useful to declare itself part of PMU due to its popularity among Iraqis.

Matters of contention within the PMU

Involvement in Syrian affairs. Khamenei’s faction remains close to Iran and favors aiding Assad’s government. Many of those groups, particularly the core of seven militarized formations, still support the legitimate government of Syria and are ready to help defend Damascus. But Sistani’s and Sadr’s supporters were against getting involved in aiding Assad. Sadr even criticized Hassan Nasrallah and Hezbollah for its official involvement in Syria in 2014. He claimed that Shia movements and parties ought to observe their own jurisdictions and not complicate their politics by intervening in other countries’ affairs. He also criticized Iraqi Shia militiamen for their presence in Syria. Moreover, many of Sistani’s unit commanders are more concerned with protecting Shia territory and holy sites in Iraq than intervening in Syria.

Integrating PMU into the existing Iraqi security institutions is another contentious matter. Khamenei’s faction is wary of being integrated into the Iraqi army or police, since they are still too weak post-2014. For their part, most groups tied to Sistani and Sadr voiced readiness to integrate into state institutions or even disband some of their military formations.

Whether PMU is integrated into existing armed forces or preserved as a separate branch of forces will have consequences not only for Iraq’s security but for its politics. If the acting Prime Minister Abadi is able to effectively and painlessly integrate PMU into Iraqi military, it will be a convincing argument in favor of his leadership. But the fact that Abadi kept PMU from participating in assault on Mosul and send them to a secondary sector, even though Iraqi military showed weakness and PMU could have been used effectively along the main axis of advance, shows that PMU will continue to have a decisive influence on the political balance of power in Iraq. Thus next year PMU will inevitably become a political instrument used by all parties in their efforts to attain power in Iraq.

Popular Mobilization Units: Establishment, War On ISIS, Role In Future Of Iraq

Iraqi PM is in Mosul

Conclusion

The PMU may be considered one of the biggest military and civilian organizations in the Middle East. They are the most likely and desirable center of  political power in Iraq. The PMU unites numerous Sunni, Shia, Christian, Yazidi, Turkoman, and Kurdish armed formations, which means that the PMU, in spite of internal disagreements, is a platform for dialogue on military and political matters, and also a guarantee against the internal or external threat of radical Islam. Currently only the PMU has major experience of conducting military operations, working with local population on humanitarian matters, and ensuring objective media coverage. Most ordinary Iraqis believe the PMU should have a political future, because it is they who broke the back of ISIS in Iraq and are ready to aid neighboring Syria.

For Iraq to be able to address own problems, it should strengthen local and federal institutions in order to combat armed terrorists and reach mutual understanding among ethno-religious communities. Only then will Iraq be able to translate its current military victories into long-term political dividends and ensure peace and stability in the region.

 

Related Articles

Putin and Trump and the step-by-step: Henry Kissinger’s advices بوتين وترامب والخطوة خطوة: نصائح هنري كيسنجر

Putin and Trump and the step-by-step: Henry Kissinger’s advices

يوليو 17, 2017

Written by Nasser Kandil,

It was remarkable for those who observe the Russian-US relationship the presidential meetings of the coordinator of the golden era in the US diplomacy the former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger who has arranged the withdrawal from Vietnam and led skillfully the openness up to China, he sponsored the understandings of cease-fire after the war of October 1973 between Syria and Israel. His held meetings for seven month included his meetings with the presidents of China, America, and Russia. He did not hide his keenness to provide the advice and the consultation to the leaders of the three countries regarding the danger of the collision, the escalation of the confrontations, and the adoption of a speech that claims imposing exclusivity or imposing wills, as long as the nuclear war is impossible. All of these three countries have what is enough of sidelines and capacities to wage a war of attrition that will force sitting at the table at the end, but after the profits of the negotiation have become much less than the cost incurred by each one of them in the absurd wars of attrition. Henry Kissinger did not stop talking about the hypothesis of the opportunity of winner-to-winner understanding in the international relationships, because confronting the terrorism is not mere a moral or humanitarian issue but a higher interest issue according to all these countries, moreover the system which they have has great motives to be based on the stability in the world, where it can grant the opportunities of prosperity and growth of their economies. Because reducing the expenditure of the races of the nuclear arming will save many of the resources to be spent in the development plans and to have their revenues, and because most of the conflicts do not revolve around the ability of a team to extract unilateral influence in a region, however around sharing the influence in the solutions not in the wars depending on the ability of each party to disrupt the other’s unilateral influence.

The few presentations of Kissinger and what is reported from him with optimism stems from the awareness of the leaders of Russia, China, and America that the understanding is their fate, he does not overcome the difficulties to announce an understanding especially according to the US President who is surrounded with a preemptive war that was waged against him under the title of accusing him with weakness comparing with the Russian President, but at the same time he does not negate the opportunities of unannounced slow understandings that lead to stop the attrition and to pave the way for showing the consequences of the understanding in order to build on them, until the moment of establishing a new world system which becomes an urgent necessary for each of the three countries. The absence of the system, the spread of chaos, and the danger of terrorism is more critical than the presence of a system even if it is subject to sharing with others, especially according to Washington which likes to talk about the exclusivity and the unilateral pole  and the eagerness to restore it, since the exclusivity and the unilateral pole are no longer exist, so the insistence on not recognizing their fall does not revive them, on the contrary it leads to world with no system, where the chaos and the terrorism will grow and continue, and the number of the failing countries will increase, thus this will provide more opportunities for further chaos and terrorism.

Depending on Kissinger’s experience in the concept of “step by step” which he adopted in reaching to an agreement of disengagement between Syria and Israel in 1974 after ten months of the war, the best scenario of Putin-Trump summit can be expected, which starts with setting the rules of engagement and showing the forbidden areas at the state of collision, which means; the lines which must not be reached no matter how long the dispute remains and the struggle continues, this is known clearly by the two teams. According to Washington this is represented by not supporting the Korean President to cover his escalation against Washington, not to collide with the Syrian country, its army and its President, and at the same time not  to provide the US cover to Saudi Arabia to wage a war against Qatar, on the other hand, Russia must not undermine the opponent regime in Ukraine, after that to link the conflict by identifying the issues around which the race, the competition and the conflict can continue, but under the ceiling of recording points and having more pressing papers waiting for a new round, taking into considerations the gas market and the race on the markets of the western Europe, testing each team of its capacities in order to reserve fixed shares in this market, as well as the direct relationship or through the allies with each of Iran, Turkey, and Israel whether positively or negatively on the basis of the exclusion of the threat of confrontations which affects the stability. The south of Syria will have such of these arrangements as the Kurds in its north and the Gulf, like controls to prevent the collisions and therefore to reach the appropriate moment for the major understandings or the historical deal, but to take into account the strategic maps, where Russia has a recognized presence politically, militarily, and economically in the countries in which it was their arena in the Cold War, and some of the interests outside it, contrary to America, and to restrict the variables on the maps in order to discuss their fate especially the new major players at their forefront Iran.

No one thinks that the issue is related to the differences of opinions, jurisprudences, positons, because everything is announced and clear. America’s desire is to resize the position of Russia which returns strongly to the international economic, military, and political arena. While Russia has invested what is enough to impose its presence in new form, so it is not possible to expect its regression after it has imposed new unbreakable equations that cannot be neglected. The dialogue starts from the US recognition that the cooperation is a need, while according to Russia it is a goal.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

 

(Visited 24 times, 1 visits today)

 

بوتين وترامب والخطوة خطوة: نصائح هنري كيسنجر

يوليو 8, 2017

ناصر قنديل

لفتت نظر كلّ الذين يتابعون العلاقة الروسية الأميركية اللقاءاتُ الرئاسية لمهندس الحقبة الذهبية في الدبلوماسية الأميركية الوزير الأسبق للخارجية هنري كيسنجر، الذي صمّم وأخرج الانسحاب من فييتنام وقاد ببراعة الانفتاح على الصين ورعى تفاهمات وقف النار بعد حرب تشرين 1973 بين سورية و«إسرائيل». وقد شملت لقاءاته خلال سبعة شهور رؤساء الصين وأميركا وروسيا، ولم يخف الإعلان عن حرصه على تقديم المشورة والنصح لقادة الدول الثلاثة بخطورة التصادم وتصعيد المواجهات، والوقوف وراء خطاب يدّعي فرص التفرّد أو فرض الإرادات، طالما أنّ الحرب النووية مستحيلة، وأنّ لدى كلّ من هذه الدول ما يكفي من الهوامش والمقدرات لخوض حرب استنزاف ستفرض الجلوس على الطاولة في النهاية، لكن بعدما تكون كلّ مكاسب التفاوض قد صارت أقلّ بكثير من الكلّفة التي تكبّدها كلّ منهم في حروب الاستنزاف العبثية. ومن جهة مقابلة لم يكفّ كيسنجر عن التحدّث حول فرضية وجود فرصة تفاهم رابح رابح في العلاقات الدولية، لأنّ مواجهة الإرهاب ليست مجرد قضية أخلاقية وإنسانية، بل مصلحة عليا لكلّ من هذه الدول وللنظام الذي يملكون دوافع كبيرة لإشادته على الاستقرار في العالم بما يتيح فرص الرخاء والنمو لاقتصاداتهم ولأنّ تخفيض الإنفاق على سباقات التسلح النووي سيوفر الكثير من الموارد لإنفاقها في خطط التنمية والفوز بعائداتها ولأنّ أغلب الصراعات لا تدور حول قدرة فريق على انتزاع نفوذ أحادي في منطقة من العالم بل حول نسب تقاسم النفوذ في الحلول، وليس في الحروب، استناداً لقدرة كلّ طرف على تعطيل أحادية نفوذ الآخر.

يوحي كيسنجر في إطلالاته القليلة وما يُنقل عنه بتفاؤل نابع من إدراك قادة روسيا والصين وأميركا بأنّ التفاهم قدرهم جميعاً. وهو لا يقلل من صعوبات الخروج بإعلان التفاهم، خصوصاً بالنسبة للرئيس الأميركي المحاط بحرب استباقية خيضت عليه تحت عنوان اتهامه بالضعف أمام الرئيس الروسي، لكنه لا ينفي فرص تفاهمات غير معلنة تسير ببطء وتثبت أرضية وقف الاستنزاف وتفتح باب تظهير عائدات التفاهم ما يتيح البناء عليها ومواصلة التظهير والبناء حتى تحين لحظة ترسيخ قواعد نظام عالمي جديد بات ضرورياً وملحاً لكلّ من الدول الثلاث. فغياب النظام وسيادة الفوضى وخطر الإرهاب أشدّ كلفة من مجرد وجود نظام ولو كان تشاركياً مع الغير، خصوصاً على واشنطن التي قد يروق لها الحديث عن التفرّد وأحادية القطبية، والحنين لاستعادتها، وهما تفرّد وأحادية لم يعودا موجودين، والإصرار على عدم الاعتراف بسقوطهما لا يُعيدهما للوجود بل يُبقي العالم بلا نظام ويبقي الفوضى والإرهاب في تنامٍ مستمرّ وزيادة عدد الدول الفاشلة في تصاعد ما يوفر المزيد من الفرص للمزيد من الفوضى والإرهاب.

بالاستناد إلى خبرة كيسنجر في مفهوم الخطوة خطوة التي اتبعها في التوصّل لاتفاق فك الاشتباك بين سورية و«إسرائيل» عام 1974 بعد عشرة شهور من الحرب، يمكن توقّع السيناريو الأفضل المنتظر من قمة بوتين ترامب، بأن يبدأ بوضع قواعد الاشتباك ورسم المناطق المحرّمة في التصادم، أيّ الخطوط التي لا يجب بلوغها مهما بقي الخلاف قائماً والصراع مستمراً. وهي معلومة للفريقين بوضوح، تمثل عند واشنطن عدم تقديم الدعم للرئيس الكوري لتغطية تصعيده بوجه واشنطن، وعدم دخول واشنطن بتصادم مع الدولة السورية وجيشها ورئيسها. وفي المقابل عدم توفير التغطية الأميركية للسعودية لشنّ حرب في قطر، وعدم قيام روسيا بتقويض النظام المناوئ لها في أوكرانيا. ثم الصعود درجة على السلم لربط نزاع، بتحديد القضايا التي يمكن مواصلة السباق والتنافس والصراع حولها، لكن تحت سقف تسجيل النقاط وامتلاك المزيد من الأوراق بانتظار جولة مقبلة. وهنا يحضر سوق الغاز والسباق، خصوصاً على أسواق أوروبا الغربية، واختبار كلّ فريق مقدراته على حجز حصص ثابتة في هذه السوق، كما تحضر العلاقة المباشرة أو عبر الحلفاء بكلّ من إيران وتركيا و«إسرائيل» سلباً وإيجاباً على قاعدة استبعاد خطر المواجهات التي تهزّ الاستقرار، فيصير لجنوب سورية نصيب من الترتيبات، ولشمالها مع الأكراد نصيب، وللخليج نصيب، كضوابط لمنع التصادمات، ليتمّ الصعود لاحقاً على درجة جديدة من السلم وبلوغ اللحظة المناسبة للتفاهمات الكبرى أو الصفقة التاريخية وفيه تحضر على الطاولة خرائط الاستراتيجية، حيث لروسيا حضور معترَف به سياسياً وعسكرياً واقتصادياً في الدول التي كانت ساحة نفوذها في الحرب الباردة، وبعض المصالح خارجها، والعكس بالنسبة لأميركا، وحصر الحالات المتغيّرة على الخريطة لبحث مصيرها، وخصوصاً اللاعبين الكبار الجدد وفي مقدّمتهم إيران.

لا يتوهّم أحد أنّ القضية خلافات رأي واجتهادات مواقف. فكلّ شيء معلن وواضح، رغبة أميركا بتحجيم مكانة روسيا العائدة بقوة إلى الساحة الدولية الاقتصادية والعسكرية والسياسية، وروسيا استثمرت ما يكفي لفرض حضورها بصيغة جديدة وما عاد ممكناً توقع عودتها إلى الوراء، وقد فرضت معادلات جديدة ما عاد ممكناً كسرُها ولا تجاهلها، فالحوار يبدأ من تسليم أميركي بأنّ التعاون حاجة، بينما هو بالنسبة لروسيا هدف.

(Visited 5٬584 times, 1 visits today)
%d bloggers like this: