Russia’s Iranian Energy Deal Killed Four Birds with One Stone

Russia’s gargantuan $30 billion energy deal with Iran simultaneously accomplished four objectives that are central to the grand strategic goals behind Moscow’s “Ummah Pivot”.

Global Research, November 08, 2017
Oriental Review 4 November 2017

Rosneft chief executive Igor Sechin announced that his company signed a roadmap to invest the mind-numbingly large sum of $30 billion in the Iranian energy sector following his and President Putin’s visit to the Islamic Republic to hold three-way talks with Azerbaijan. This masterstroke of energy diplomacy wouldn’t have been possible had it not been for Trump scaring Western investors away from Iran and pushing the country closer towards Russia as a result, which totally reversed the intended dynamic of the Obama Administration that sought to reorient Iran in the opposite direction through the multiple concessions that it offered up through the summer 2015 nuclear deal. Russia’s foreign policy “progressives” are indeed making rapid progress in advancing their 21st-century grand strategic goal of positioning Moscow as the supreme balancing force in the Eurasian supercontinent, and this is in turn accelerating the global transition to a Multipolar World Order.

In order to appreciate just how profoundly significant of a geostrategic move Moscow made this week, one needs to look no further than the four objectives that were immediately advanced through the Russian-Iranian energy roadmap:

Unveiling A Trans-Azeri Pipeline

Russia intends to build a trans-Azeri pipeline to Iran, which will not only strengthen bilateral Russian-Iranian relations and their trilateral expansion with Azerbaijan, but also importantly demonstrates the success of the recent Russian-Azeri rapprochement over the past year. Moscow views Baku as an integrationist in the sense that it’s facilitating Russia and China’s supercontinental goal of linking the landmass closer together, while traditional Russian “ally” Armenia is seen as a Western-leaning obstructionist that’s suddenly become a wayward partner.

It shouldn’t be interpreted as coincidental that this new energy-driven milestone in Russian-Azeri relations occurred just weeks before the planned signing of Armenia’s “Comprehensive And Enhanced New Agreement” with the EU. The dichotomy of Azerbaijan moving closer to Russia at precisely the same moment that Armenia drifts towards the West is expected to have serious implications for the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process because it suggests that Moscow might more solidly support Baku’s preferred solution to this conflict in line with international law while the West (influenced to a strong degree by the powerful US-based Armenian lobby) might back Yerevan’s continued occupation of the region.

Starting The South Asian Stream

The other important outcome of this trilateral summit is that Russia also announced that it intends to build a tristate pipeline between Iran, Pakistan, and India, which the author recently remarked might signify that Russia has been successful in getting India to downscale its support for Baloch terrorism against Pakistan due to New Delhi’s newfound self-interest in this transnational region’s stability because of “South Asian Stream”. If successful with this strategy, then Moscow could prove that it’s indeed the only balancing force capable of sustaining stability in the Mideast-South Asian pivot region because of the influence that Russia is still capable of wielding in “moderating” the pro-Western pivot that India’s embarked on in recent years.

Trilateral meeting of Vladimir Putin, President of Iran Hassan Rouhani and President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev.

Trilateral meeting of Vladimir Putin, President of Iran Hassan Rouhani and President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev in Tehran, Nov 1, 2017 (PHOTO: KREMLIN.RU)

Neutralizing Iran As A European Competitor

In line with the abovementioned strategy that the Obama Administration had for gently co-opting Iran and its “moderate”-led government into the Western fold, a large part of the vision had to do with using Western investments to eventually transform the country into a formidable competitor to Russia in the European marketplace. That entire blueprint has now been neutralized because of Trump’s aggression against the Islamic Republic and the “rescue mission” that Russian energy investments are now engaged in to “save” the Iranian economy from the US’ anti-Iranian bullying of its Western partners (despite the President’s public denial thereof) and what appear to be impending sectoral sanctions against its resource sector. Under these circumstances, which are setting into motion reformatted years-long strategies by all sides, it’s all but impossible for the US to ever “guide” Iran in the direction of becoming a serious competitor to Russia’s marketplace position in Europe, thereby averting this scenario.

Reassuring Tehran About The Russian-Saudi Rapprochement

Finally, Iran had every reason to be concerned about the Russian-Saudi rapprochement if its decision makers viewed it from a “zero-sum” Neo-Realist angle, even though Moscow’s intent behind it had always been about forging a win-win solution for retaining state-to-state peace in the Mideast, but all of those fears were put to rest after the announcement about Rosneft’s $30 billion energy investment plans in the Islamic Republic. Tehran can now rest assured that Moscow isn’t “selling out” to the Saudis, but is indeed truly trying to balance the complex interstate relations of the Mideast, hence the very successful outcome of President Putin’s visit to Iran in proving just how successful Russia’s “Ummah Pivot” is shaping out to be.

Andrew Korybko is an American Moscow-based political analyst specializing in the relationship between the US strategy in Afro-Eurasia, China’s One Belt One Road global vision of New Silk Road connectivity, and Hybrid Warfare.

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Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan: Emerging Alliance

Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan: Emerging Alliance

ALEX GORKA | 08.11.2017 | WORLD

Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan: Emerging Alliance

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Iran was covered as the top story worldwide. On November 1, the president was in Tehran to attend the tripartite summit of Iran, Russia and Azerbaijan. The event was held against the background of additional sanctions imposed against Russia and Iran on October 31 by the US Treasury Department. It’s only natural for the nations under sanctions to get closer to each other. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told Vladimir Putin that Tehran and Moscow must step up cooperation to isolate the United States and help stabilize the Middle East.

At the end of the summit, the presidents of Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan signed the Tehran Declaration. The leaders announced joint plans to expand collaboration in the oil and gas sector as well as on electricity exchange plans and the formation of a single market. It is planned to use national currencies in trade transactions instead of US dollar.

The plans include the participation of Russian investors and private sectors in joining Iran’s infrastructural projects, including industry and energy, and rail networks. Russia holds the largest amount of natural gas reserves in the world. Iran holds the world’s second biggest natural gas reserves. Together the two nations account for around 50% of world reserves of hydrocarbons. By joining together they can significantly influence the world markets.

The Tehran Declaration declares the intent to develop three-way cooperation, including the long-awaited International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a 7,200km road, rail, and sea route to connect the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf to the Caspian Sea via Iran, and is then to be connected to North Europe via Russia. The project includes ten other countries, connecting Azerbaijan and Armenia in the Caucasus, then moving north and west to Turkey, Belarus, Syria, and Bulgaria, to Oman in the Middle East, as well as north and east to reach Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

Iran also plans to build a railroad to the Mediterranean Sea through Iraq and Syria. Russia could take part in the implementation of the project.

A temporary agreement on establishing a free trade zone between the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) and Iran is expected to be signed till the end of the year. A draft agreement between Iran and EEU was signed in Yerevan, Armenia, on July 5 after more than a year of negotiations for levying preferential export tariffs on 350 Iranian industrial products in return for 180 commodities from EEU. The negotiations on a free trade deal with the Eurasian Economic Union make it clear that other nations will not follow the US if it backs out of the nuclear accord with Iran. With global economic interest in Iran, and international commitment to the deal, Tehran looks set to continue its reintegration into the global economy.

Iran has joined Russia in taking control of the Syrian peace process, becoming a party to the Astana peace process. Russian arms supplies, including an S-300 anti-aircraft missile system delivered last year, help Tehran maintain the capability to defend itself, especially in view of potential US intervention.

Azerbaijan is a very important regional actor – a secular state obstructing the spread of religious extremism.

Baku would gain a lot by joining a free trade zone between the EEU and Tehran. The logic and the economic benefits of a free trade area are obvious. It would bring together highly compatible economies and consolidate economic and trade links in Central Asia and in southern Eurasia. It would also allow Azerbaijan to resume trade links with Armenia, a member of the EEU, facilitating a settlement of the currently frozen Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The Moscow-Tehran-Baku format could be much more efficient than the OSCE in finding a peaceful solution to the problem.

The construction of a railroad from Iran to Russia through Azerbaijan was an issue on the agenda. Azerbaijan is ready to allocate 500 million euros to modernize its section of the railway corridor.

President Putin said Russia is ready to deliver gas to the northern part of Iran via Azerbaijan. According to him, Moscow and Baku should not compete when it comes to energy projects. This is a matter of special importance for Baku in view of obstructions created on the way of transporting Azeri gas to Europe. This summer, a group of influential NGOs, including Greenpeace, Bankwatch Network, Friends of the Earth Europe и Climate Action Network Europe, called on the European Commission to withdraw support for the 878-kilometer-long Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) stretching from Azerbaijan. The pretext used is possible damage to climate and increasing energy dependence on oppressive political regimes (meaning Azerbaijan).

Azerbaijan has good reasons to doubt the West’s reliability as an ally. Baku is routinely criticized in the West for being a “dictatorship”. Western NGOs in Azerbaijan have often openly backed anti-government opposition leaders in ways that must make Azerbaijan’s government wonder whether it is a target for a West-backed color revolution.

The burgeoning cooperation between the three powers is just one if the trends shaping the regional landscape. There is also an emerging alliance to involve Turkey-Iran-Qatar – all of them closely cooperating with Moscow.

The process of rapprochement between Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan will continue. The next trilateral meeting will be held in Moscow in 2018. If the plans agreed at the Tehran summit will go through, the landscape of the Middle East and South Asia will change with many countries of the regions united by economic interests. The influence of the United States will greatly diminish. China’s One Belt One Road initiative and the Russia-Azerbaijan-Iran energy bridge will create the conditions for a multipolar world.

This is China’s century, it is known by America هذا قرن الصين تعرفه أميركا

 This is China’s century, it is known by America

أكتوبر 31, 2017

Written by Nasser Kandil,

Those who are deeply involved  in reading the American unilateral and insist on being dazzled by the fact that America was and will remain the main player in the international arena,  have to return to the writings of the neo-conservatives and the expectations of the US major thinkers as Samuel Huntington, Francis Fukuyama and Bernard Lewis about the last opportunity of America for investing in order to stabilize its leadership, which its ceiling is the first quarter of the twenty-first century, otherwise China is coming. This century is China’s, the time of collapse and decline in the situation of Russia will end before the end of the first quarter of the twenty-first century. The economic power of China will get it out to politics and markets together, and it will converge with Russia in the attempt to replace the dollar as the main currency in the world. So what is available for America and what it must not be delayed for is to stick to the energy resources and the ways of their flow before the end of the deadline. The war on the region between the Caspian, the Red, the Black and the Mediterranean Seas will determine the fate of the world, its system, and its leadership. By the way it is the region for which the Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad has called its leaders to form a regional system under the name of the five seas region, but after adding the Gulf to them.

The war of the five seas has occurred but it will not continue after it lost the momentum. What has affected the US war in its goals, alliances, and its armies is enough to announce its failure, and the quest to stick to the energy resources to control the Chinese growth and the price of the Chinese goods has become a lost dream, moreover, the plans of controlling the energy flow from Russia to Europe have failed, and its sale has been imposed with cheap prices in order to grant the heavy European economics the opportunities to grow, beholding it the costs of including the poor countries of the Eastern Europe in order to tighten the siege of Russia to force it to surrender. The war is approaching of its end; Russia and China have the keys of economic, military, and political rise, most importantly to reach the seas, while Syria was the key opportunity for that positioning.

Russia and China have tested two experiences towards internationality, but their essence was the same, the failure which affected the traditional example of socialism with the experience of the Soviet Union has led them practically towards the state capitalism, whether it was called in Russia the social liberalism and the multi-capitalist economy or was called in China the socialist market economy. The essence of the new economy of the two countries based on a country that sticks to the strategic resources of economy and leaves the free competition to the private sector, and which sticks strongly to the social role of the country through the high social guarantees presented by it to the poor and those of small income.

But the new state capitalism in China and Russia depends on a new pillar; its socialist content, where the transformation which each of Russia and China inserted into their understanding of the socialist economics depends, it is the realization that the surplus value which achieves the capital accumulation is not in the labor force and what the producers do, which means not in the production, as what Karl Marx and Frederic Engels, the founders of socialism wrote, but in the exchange, where the transportation of goods, the raw materials, and the energy resources play a pivotal role in determining the quantity of the capital accumulation which is achieved by production. The exchange is the next step of the four economic processes through which Marx and Engels have summarized the capital process ” production, distribution, exchange, and consumption” No matter if the Chinese or the Russians formulated this transformation in the concept of the economic philosophy as much as it is important that it forms the essence power of Russia and China today. Today Russia is a state of oil and gas pipelines, while China is the state of railways.

Those who observe China and Russia during the past quarter will discover the size of the linkage between the economic growth of both of them and the sticking of the country to the essence of the economic process. for example, In Russia, there are means of transferring energy, while in China there are means for transferring the raw materials and goods, and will discover also an objective proportion  between this growth and the natural wealth of the two countries. Russia is the country of oil and gas, while China is the country of steel, He will discover as well the reasons of the superiority of Russia and China and their success through avoiding the fall before the US efforts of hegemony, through the sticking  strongly to the virtual transportation  of energy and goods together which are represented by the banking transactions, it is a means that cannot be developed and it is not suitable to achieve the development of the American economy but virtually, as has happened in the stock exchange of Wall Street before its explosion,  and in the real estate market before its bankruptcy. While China will have an open range of  development as long as the railways which it tries to form commensurate with the size of the goods which it produces and  which are able to be marketed at home and abroad. Russia will have the opportunities as long as the oil and gas pipelines which it makes commensurate with the market need of oil and gas to which it exports and which need them but at a satisfactory price that suits the production averages and their prices. Washington entered the phase in which its growth became negative, after it transcended the red lines to expand its banking market and its paper transactions to the ceilings of the goods and the real goods around which money, banks and the stock markets circulate. Perhaps waging a war by America is an expression of the inability to play with time without a violent intervention that changes the course of the natural developments and bears the consequences of the competition which is determined by nature.

China exceeds Russia because it is an internal market that is wider four times, and because it produces goods and commodities not only the energy resources and the raw materials. So within few years it will reach according to the recognition of the International Monetary Fund the world’s largest economy after surpassing the American economy, and it will reach according to the recognition of the same Fund the first country in possessing the money in circulation, thus it will surpass Japan. Because there is no limit that prevents what is needed by the global market from the Chinese goods at reasonable prices, the success of China internationality will depend on solving problems of the local assembly which is close to the markets in order to save the cost and to try to protect through getting a consensus from the producers, and the winning of challenge will depend on the arrival of the goods to the markets at a suitable time and cost , just for that China prepares itself for a global campaign through One Belt One Road Initiative which based on the transportation network and industrial free zones to Asia towards the gates of Europe and Africa, and which its wide outcome will start to emerge in the year 2025 and will end within a context of an accelerated sustained growth in 2050.

Within years China will be able to absorb a huge amounts of the Gulf oil and the Russian, Iranian, and Qatari gas, as it will be able to spread huge quantities of its half-manufactured goods to hundreds of the industrial free zones that are built around hundreds of thousands of kilometers of the railways, it will spread in the markets more quantities of the consumer goods that are ready to be consumed directly.  The Chinese steel will be the crossing bridge through giant transport lines and exceptional high-speed trains. China will have surplus of thousands of trillions of currencies that are not monopolized by the US dollar including the Russia Ruble and the Chinese Yuan, therefore, the world will be in demand and China will expose its goods.

The Chinese and the Russian challenge represents by the ability to adapt the European West and the American to accept a balance in exchanging the outcomes of economy and its experiences, a balance in the game of power, and a balance in the management of politics because the years to come will grant Russia and China the opportunity of partnership between the first production country represented by China and the first energy and power country represented by Russia, so it will be difficult or even impossible to resist this bilateral. As Russia abandoned the race of arming in favor of reviving its economy decades ago, the West countries will take the initiative to call to eliminate of the useless accumulated nuclear arsenals in order to return the revival to its economy.

The sentence which was said by the President Bashar Al-Assad “ Heading eastward”  is neither mere a political choice for our country nor a reward for those who stood with us only, but it is a conscious anticipation for what is coming inevitably.

Xi Jinping is the new leader of China; he is coming with the giant railways, fast trains, and multi-cheap goods. Keep this name into your minds.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

هذا قرن الصين تعرفه أميركا

ناصر قنديل

أكتوبر 27, 2017

– للذين يتوهون في تفاصيل الاستغراق بقراءة الأحادية الأميركية ويصرّون على الانبهار بأنّ أميركا كانت وستبقى اللاعب الرئيسي المقرّر على الساحة الدولية، أن يعودوا إلى كتابات المحافظين الجدد، وتوقعات كبار المفكرين الأميركيين، من أمثال صموئيل هنتنغتون، وفرانسيس فوكوياما، وبرنارد لويس، عن فرصة أميركية لاستثمار سقفه الربع الأول من القرن الحادي والعشرين لتثبيت زعامتها، وإلا فإنّ الصين قادمة، والقرن قرن الصين، وأنّ زمن الانهيار والتراجع في حالة روسيا سينتهي قبل نهاية الربع الأول من القرن الحادي والعشرين، وأنّ قوة الصين الاقتصادية ستخرجها إلى السياسة والأسواق معاً وستجمعها مع روسيا على السعي لاستبدال الدولار كعملة رئيسية في العالم، وما تستطيعه أميركا وما يجب ألا تتأخر عنه هو الإمساك بمنابع الطاقة وطرق تدفقها، قبل نهاية المهلة، والحرب على منطقة ما بين بحار قزوين والأسود والأحمر والمتوسط ستقرّر مصير العالم ونظامه وزعامته، وهي بالمناسبة المنطقة التي دعا الرئيس السوري بشار الأسد قادتها لتشكيل منظمة إقليمية باسم منطقة البحار الخمسة مضيفاً الخليج إلى البحار الأربعة لتصير خمسة.

– دارت حرب البحار الخمسة ولن تستمرّ بعدما فقدت قوة الدفع، ولو جرجرت ذيولها لما تبقى من الربع الأول من القرن الحادي والعشرين، فما أصاب الحرب الأميركية بأهدافها وتحالفاتها وجيوشها كاف لإعلان فشلها، والسعي لإمساك مصادر الطاقة للتحكم بالنمو الصيني وأسعار السلع الصينية صار حلماً فائتاً، كما فشلت خطط التحكم بتدفق الطاقة من روسيا إلى أوروبا وفرض بيعها بأسعار رخيصة لتمنح الاقتصادات الأوروبية الثقيلة فرص النمو، وتعوّض عليها أكلاف ضمّها الدول الفقيرة شرق أوروبا بهدف إحكام حصار روسيا تمهيداً لفرض الاستسلام عليها. فالحرب تضع أوزارها أو تكاد بينما روسيا والصين تمسكان بمفاتيح الصعود الاقتصادي والسياسي والعسكري، والأهمّ بلوغ البحار، وقد كانت سورية مفتاح فرص هذا التموضع.

– خاضت روسيا والصين تجربتين مختلفين نحو العالمية، لكن جوهرهما واحد. فالفشل الذي أصاب النموذج التقليدي للاشتراكية مع تجربة الاتحاد السوفياتي، دفع بهما عملياً نحو رأسمالية الدولة، سواء جرت تسميتها في روسيا بالليبرالية المجتمعية والاقتصاد الرأسمالي المتعدّد، أو سمّيت في الصين باقتصاد السوق الاشتراكي، فجوهر اقتصاد البلدين الجديد يقوم على دولة تمسك بالمصادر الاستراتيجية للاقتصاد وتترك التنافس الحرّ للقطاع الخاص في سواها، وتتمسك بقوة بدور الدولة الاجتماعي بضمانات اجتماعية عالية تقدّمها الدولة للفقراء وذوي الدخل المحدود.

– لكن رأسمالية الدولة الجديدة في الصين وروسيا تعتمد على ركيزة جديدة هي مضمونها الاشتراكي، حيث يتشكل قلب التحوّل الذي أدخلته كلّ من روسيا والصين على فهمهما للاقتصاد الاشتراكي، هو إدراك أنّ فائض القيمة الذي يحقق التراكم الرأسمالي ليس في قوة العمل وما يبذله المنتجون، أيّ ليس في الإنتاج كما كتب كارل ماركس وفريديريك أنغلز، مؤسّسا الاشتراكية، بل في التبادل، حيث تلعب وسائل نقل السلع والمواد الخام وموارد الطاقة الدور المحوري في تحديد كمية التراكم الرأسمالي الذي يحققه الإنتاج، والتبادل هو الحلقة التالية من العمليات الاقتصادية الأربع التي لخّص بها العبقريان ماركس وأنغلز العملية الرأسمالية، «الإنتاج والتوزيع والتبادل والاستهلاك»، وليس مهماً إنْ صاغ الصينيون والروس هذا التحوّل بمفهوم فلسفة اقتصادية بقدر أهمية أنه يشكل جوهر قوة روسيا والصين اليوم، فروسيا دولة أنابيب النفط والغاز، والصين دولة خطوط سكك الحديد.

– مَن يراقب الصين وروسيا خلال ربع قرن مضى سيكتشف حجم الرابط بين النمو الاقتصادي لكليهما، بنمو إمساك الدولة بجوهر العملية الاقتصادية. في روسيا وسائل نقل الطاقة، وفي الصين وسائل نقل المواد الخام والبضائع، وسيكتشف تناسباً موضوعياً بين هذا النمو والثروات الطبيعية للبلدين، فروسيا بلد النفط والغاز والصين بلد الفولاذ، وسيكتشف أسباب تفوّق روسيا والصين ونجاحهما بتفادي السقوط أمام المساعي الأميركية للهيمنة بقوة الإمساك بوسيلة النقل الافتراضية للطاقة والبضائع معاً، التي تمثلها المعاملات البنكية، وهي وسيلة غير قابلة للنمو ولا تصلح بذاتها لتحقيق التنمية للاقتصاد الأميركي إلا افتراضياً، كما حدث في بورصات وول ستريت قبل انفجارها الدفتري، وفي سوق العقارات قبل إفلاسها. بينما في المقابل سيكون للصين مدى مفتوح في النمو ما دامت سكك الحديد التي تبنيها وتسعى لبنائها تتناسب مع حجم البضائع التي تنتجها والقابلة للتسويق في الداخل أو الخارج، ومثلها روسيا سيكون لها الفرص ما دامت أنابيب الغاز والنفط التي تنشئها متناسبة مع مقدار حاجة الأسواق للنفط والغاز الذي تصدّره إلى أسواق تحتاجه بسعر يناسب معادلات الإنتاج وأسعارها بينما واشنطن دخلت المرحلة التي صار نموّها فيها سلبياً، بعدما اجتازت الخطوط الحمراء لتوسّع سوقها المصرفية ومعاملاتها الورقية لسقوف البضائع والسلع الحقيقية التي يقوم المال وتقوم المصارف والبورصات بتداولها. ولعلّ الإقدام على خوض الحرب من الجانب الأميركي تعبير عن العجز عن اللعب مع الزمن دون تدخل عنيف يغيّر مسار التطورات الطبيعية، وتحمل نتائج التنافس الذي تقرّره الطبيعة.

– تتقدّم الصين على روسيا بكونها سوقاً داخلية أوسع بأربع مرات، وبكونها تنتج البضائع والسلع لا موارد الطاقة والمواد الخام فقط، ولذلك فهي ستبلغ في أعوام قليلة باعتراف صندوق النقد الدولي مرتبة الاقتصاد الأكبر في العالم، بعد تجاوزها للاقتصاد الأميركي، وستبلغ أيضاً باعتراف الصندوق نفسه مرتبة الدولة الأولى في امتلاك الكتل النقدية وتتخطى بذلك اليابان، ولأنّ لا مساحة تحدّ مما يحتاجه السوق العالمي من سلع صينية بأسعار مناسبة، سيتوقف نجاح عالمية الصين على حلّ معضلات التجميع المحلي القريب من الأسواق توفيراً للكلفة وسعياً للحماية بالحصول على توافق مع المنتجين فيها. كما سيتوقف الفوز بالتحدّي على وصول السلع للأسواق بوقت مناسب وكلفة مناسبة، لذلك تستعدّ الصين لحملة عالميتها بمشروع الحزام والطريق، القائم على شبكة مواصلات ومناطق حرة صناعية عابرتين لآسيا، وصولاً إلى أبواب أوروبا وأفريقيا، مقدّر له أن يبدأ ثماره الواسعة في العام 2025 وأن يبلغ نهايته في سياق نمو متسارع ومستديم في العام 2050.

– خلال سنوات ستكون الصين قادرة على امتصاص كميات هائلة من النفط الخليجي والغاز الروسي والإيراني والقطري، كما ستكون قادرة على ضخّ كميات هائلة من بضائعها نصف المصنّعة إلى مئات المناطق الصناعية الحرة التي تبنيها على محطات تتوزّع حول مئات آلاف الكيلومترات من سكك الحديد، وستقذف في الأسواق كميات أكبر من السلع الاستهلاكية الجاهزة للاستهلاك مباشرة، حيث الفولاذ الصيني سيكون جسر العبور بخطوط نقل عملاقة وقطارات سريعة لا مثيل لها في العالم، وستمتلك الصين فوائض مالية بآلاف التريليونات من سلة عملات لا يحتكرها الدولار الأميركي، يدخل بين مصنفاتها الروبل الروسي واليوان الصيني، وسيكون العالم في موضع الطلب والصين في موقع العرض.

– التحدّي الصيني والروسي يقف عند حدود القدرة على تطويع الغرب الأوروبي والأميركي لارتضاء توازن في تبادل خيرات الاقتصاد وخبراته، وتوازن في لعبة القوة، وتوازن في إدارة السياسة، لأنّ المقبل من السنوات سيمنح روسيا والصين فرصة الشراكة بين دولة الإنتاج الأولى التي ستمثلها الصين، ودولة القوة والطاقة الأولى التي تمثلها روسيا، وسيكون صعباً، بل مستحيلاً مقاومة سطوة هذا الثنائي. ومثلما تخلت روسيا عن سباق التسلح لإصلاح اقتصادها قبل عقود، ستجد دول الغرب أنها مَن سيبادر للدعوة للتخلص من الترسانات النووية المكدّسة بلا طائل، لتمكين اقتصاداتها من الانطلاق مجدّداً.

– التوجه شرقاً، الجملة التي قالها الرئيس بشار الأسد ليست مجرد خيار سياسي لبلادنا، ولا هي مكافأة لمن وقفوا معنا فقط، بل هي استباق واعٍ لما هو آت لا محالة.

– شي جينغ بينغ زعيم الصين الجديد، آتٍ بسكك الحديد العملاقة والقطارات السريعة، والسلع الرخيصة والمتعدّدة، احفظوا هذا الاسم جيداً.

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Hiding Behind Fighting Terrorism U.S. Intends to Seize Syria’s Oil


By Anna Jaunger

Information Clearing House” –  As the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) progresses towards Deir Ezzor, the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), mostly made up of Syrian Kurds, began to prepare for a military offensive on the Syrian city in order to prevent the government forces from re-establishing military control over the oil rich-territory.

Despite all promises that the U.S. doesn’t intend to extend its presence in Syria after defeating ISIS, Washington continues to increase the number of American military and set up new bases in Syria.

Yesterday, Gulf News reported that the U.S.-led Coalition had dropped off an elite squad in the eastern part of the province of Deir Ezzor. According to many experts, its prior goal is to gather intelligence and prepare staging ground for the SDF’s offensive in Deir Ezzor.

This position is proved by Ahmed Abu Khawla, a SDF official. Khawla said, the SDF could start its assault on Deir Ezzor “within several weeks” in parallel with an ongoing battle for nearby Raqqa city. Khawla also added that all military plans were absolutely ready.

Besides, according to sources close to the SDF, the U.S.-backed forces intend to conduct assault from the province of Al-Hasakah, where the U.S. Special Forces troops were dropped off.

Considering the U.S. and the Coalition have illegally invaded Syria’s territory, there is only one way for Washington to remain in Syria – to establish full control over Deir Ezzor. In this case the United States are helped by the Kurds, who are also interested in seizing oil fields.

In his turn, Talal Silo, spokesman of the SDF, said that Washington had “a strategy policy for decades to come.”

Obviously, the U.S. actions in Syria are unlikely to be limited by fighting ISIS. Perhaps, it is only a part of the plan to destroy urban infrastructure and overthrow Assad’s government in Syria. Now it is extremely important for the SAA not to let the U.S.-backed forces to seize the initiative in Deir Ezzor. The future of the country and geopolitical strategic equation will depend on who will control the strategic region of oil rich-territory in Syria.

Anna Jaunger is a freelance journalist from Inside Syria Media Center.


“Exclusive to SyrPer” by Canthama
Some perspectives on the recent gas fields liberated in Syria and their impact on the future economy of Syria:
From peak production in 2010, prior to the war of aggression against the Syrians, the natural gas production reached 8.9 million(M) cubic(cu) meters(mts) per day in Syria, and it has been in a free fall since then to 3.8M cu mts per day in 2016, 43% of the all time record (this is basically official production under the Government of Syria).
Just the mega Tuweinaan gas field, recently liberated in central Homs Province, mostly intact, will be able to produce 3.3M cu mts in 6 months time as per initial plan, which could be intensified so as to reach the milestone of 0.6M cu mts per day production in few weeks, then 1.1M cu mts per day in 2 months and full force in 6 months or 3.3M cu mts per day of natural gas, that would almost, alone, double the country’s 2016 production.
Together with Tuweinaan gas field, over two dozens of gas fields were also liberated in the past 2 months, though smaller in size and in production capacity versus Tuweinaan, the Syrian Government believes those liberated gas fields can reach the production level from 2010 in 6 to 12 months. The Palmyra area in central Syria is the site of much of this activity, including the recently liberated Arak gas field, which came on stream at the end of 1995. Other important gas fields in the Palmyra area include Al-Hayl (liberated) and Al Doubayaat (still under ISIS, but not for long) — both of which are “sweet gas” and two “sour gas” fields — and Najeeb (mostly liberated this past Sunday) and Sukhna (fully liberated), which came on stream in 2000. Most of these fields will likely enjoy expansions in output post-conflict.
The Syrian Government’s herculean effort, during the 7-year conflict, to pump as much gas from the fields that were kept safe under the control of the State, generated much higher output in those individual gas fields versus prior to 2010 output, which helped to minimize the loss in production with the majority of gas fields under the terrorists’ control. On top of that good performance, the newly liberated gas fields, when in full production, can be expected to produce over 10M cu mts per day sometime by 2018, which would by itself be an all-time record for the country and a much needed resource of power and heating.
It is important to note that it is yet to be seen whether brand new investments to extract natural gas from the shallow waters off the Mediterranean coast of Latakia and Tartous will be forthcoming. There are massive reserves ready for development which will be fairly cheap to extract due to the low depth water and the size of the reserves.  These underwater gas fields are similar to those identified on the Lebanese and Palestinian coasts.

Syria was never a major oil player, but it produced more than its internal needs prior to the war of aggression against it.  Syria produced some 400,000 barrels per day in 2010 (all time record of 600,000/day in 1996), exporting 30% of this volume to overseas customers.
Different from the natural gas production, the conflict severely affected the Syrian oil production (official), reducing it to a fraction of the 2010 level, 3% of it or 14,000 barrels a day. This number does not take into account the oil smuggled to Turkey/Iraq Kurdistan/Israel by ISIS or Al-Qaeda.
By far the major oil extraction is located in the Deir El-Zor Province, reaching 60%+ of the total 2010 production level, with ‘Umar field representing 80,000 barrels/day prior to the conflict, or 20% of national share. The oil found in Deir El-Zor back in the 1980s is the light-grade/low-sulphur oil, usually praised as high quality/value oil.
On the oil refinery side, Syria’s two oil refineries are located at Baniyas and Homs. Total refinery capacity from these refineries in 2004 was estimated at 239,865 bbl/d (132,725 bbl/d and 107,140 bbl/d, respectively). They survived intact the war of aggression against the Syrians, and this is going to be very important for the future of Syria. The two refineries are using imported oil at the moment, mostly from Russia and Iran.
Photo arquive: Baniyas Refinery
Photo arquive: Homs Refinery
It is clear that the liberation of all of Deir El-Zor’s oil fields will be vital for Syria’s recovery in 2018-2019 and will help bring new revenues from exports and most likely billions of Rubles, Dinars and Yuans in new construction projects and re-develpment of infrastructure.
In the next weeks the SAA and allies will be approaching the critical point when they will have to storm Deir El-Zor City and cross the Euphrates.  This will be a game changer for the economy of Syria and long-awaited endgame for ISIS.

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They Won’t Tell the Truth About Syria Who is Behind the Push for WW3 2017

Stages of pre-American recognition of settlement مراحل ما قبل التسليم الأميركي بالتسوية

Stages of pre-American recognition of settlement

Written by Nasser Kandil,

يوليو 25, 2017

It was not in the consideration of the axis of the resistance especially Iran, Hezbollah, and Syria to be engaged in a war that justifies the entry of Hezbollah and the Iranian forces to Syria, because they are mobilizing for the war of liberating Palestine, to discuss the settlements such as what about the presence of Hezbollah and Iran near the borders of Palestine with Syria. The goal of their participation was to protect Syria from the war of overthrowing, fragmentation and chaos, as well as to repel the danger of the rootedness of the terrorism in order to protect their presence and their project. The ceiling of their project is the recovery of Syria, its rise, recapturing what was grasped of its geography, the unification of its national territory, and the reactivation the role of its institutions under the leadership of its president, constants, and its resisting choice.

Russia. Iran, Syria, and the resistance have agreed since the beginnings that the long costly war is the way for the settlement of the recovery of Syria unified under the leadership of its president and its army. If the settlement ensures this title then it will mean the victory and the reduction of its costs. Therefore, the task of the fighting is to provide an issue to politics that allows seeing if the war team led by Washington is ready for a settlement under this title. So what is needed is first, the American must reach to the stage of recognition of the futility of betting on the war to achieve the goal of overthrowing Syria, this has been achieved with the Russian positioning in Syria in the end of 2015 and it was dedicated with the battle of Aleppo in the end of 2016, second the American must recognize that the cost of attrition is bigger than the cost of settlements.

In the war of attrition, the American has tested the assumptions of chaos and the hegemony of ISIS, towards the assumption of division, he preferred them all to the settlement entitled the return of Syria under the leadership of its president and army, but the alternative choice for the settlement becomes the continuation of fighting under the title of the war on ISIS. The Russian equation was presented to the American in way that expresses that if you are afraid from the positioning of Hezbollah and the Iranians in all the Syrian geography, then where the Syrian army fights, it will be accompanied with the Iranians and Hezbollah, and where they enter no one can take them out, so it is the time to think of handling over the territories in which you have the decision to the Syrian army where it can enter alone, so the choice between Syria with its president and its army or Syria with its president and its army along with Iran and Hezbollah on all the new geography since everything passed has become out of debate.

The fall of the US red line on the Syrian-Iraqi borders was the most important shift, the consultations that preceded the meeting of the Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin throughout three weeks regarding Astana path and the issues of the south, and on the other hand the meetings to discuss the proposed issues to coordinate between the two delegations of experts and the advisors before the summit have succeeded in reaching the equation which proves that the cost of the settlement has become less than going on in the war of attrition, but the cost of promoting the settlements has to be reasonable. So the choice was American in the southern of Syria to link it with the concerns of Israel and to serve its security, and the possibility of the American boast by alienating Iran away from the borders, and the choice was Ukrainian to link lifting the sanctions with the understanding signed in Minsk to end the dispute.

Neither new Korean missiles, nor US aircraft will violate the airspaces which are close to Russia, no for the overthrow of Qatar and no for the change of the equations of the global gas market versus no for the fall of Kiev system, but slow accumulation of settlements. In Syria the staying of the Syrian President is the key of the solution under the title of ensuring a strong central country that is able to have control on its borders. So Turkey will be relieved and Israel will keep silent. Geneva will start as a framework for the political solution with the start of the battles of ISIS in Deir Al Zour under the coordination of the Kurds with the Syrian army and the partnership of the Russians and the Americans, where the Kurdish presence in Geneva will be the start of getting rid of the federal dividing entity versus a representative presence of the opposition delegation that commensurate with the military presence.

The axis of the resistance put its plan as Iran put its plan for its nuclear program; the recognition of the accomplishment by the Western side is half of the victory as in Syria. The west will get mature when the alternative of the settlement becomes the capability of Iran to possess the bomb which it does not want, and so in Syria when the settlement becomes Syria with its president and army an alternative to what is like the nuclear bomb, which means the reach of Hezbollah and Iran the lines of contact with Israel. As the nuclear bomb that is not a goal for neither Syria, nor Iran, nor Hezbollah. but when the American who has come to the war to overthrow Syria, its president and its army is seeing in his staying now a repelling against  a bigger danger which the axis of the resistance succeeded in making its attainable danger then this is the peak of strength, sophistication, and the strategic intelligence exactly as Barack Obama who has described the reason of accepting the nuclear understanding with Iran and lifting the sanctions by saying; we have imposed the sanctions in order to make Iran far from having a bomb, but today the sanctions have become the way for the possession of Iran of its bomb.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

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مراحل ما قبل التسليم الأميركي بالتسوية

ناصر قنديل

– لم يكن في حساب محور المقاومة، خصوصاً إيران وحزب الله وسورية فتح حرب تبرر دخول حزب الله والقوات الإيرانية إلى سورية، لأنهم يحشدون لحرب تحرير فلسطين كي يصير نقاش التسويات من باب ماذا عن وجود حزب الله وإيران قرب حدود فلسطين مع سورية؟ فالهدف من المشاركة التي نهضت لها قوى المقاومة كان حماية سورية من حرب الإسقاط والتفتيت والفوضى، ولصدّ خطر تجذّر الإرهاب حماية لوجودها ومشروعها. وسقف المشروع تعافي سورية وقيامة دولتها واستردادها ما انتزع من جغرافيتها، وتوحيد ترابها الوطني، وإعادة دور مؤسساتها، لكن برئيسها وثوابتها وخيارها المقاوم، وكله مختزَنٌ بمعادلة سورية بجيشها ورئيسها.

– تفاهمت روسيا وإيران وسورية والمقاومة منذ البدايات أن الحرب المكلفة والطويلة هي طريق لتسوية تثبت الخلاصة بعودة سورية موحّدة برئيسها وجيشها. فالتسوية إذا ضمنت هذا العنوان تعني تشريع النصر واختصار أكلافه. ولذلك فمهمة القتال تقديم مادة للسياسة تسمح بقياس درجة نضج رأس فريق الحرب الذي تمثله واشنطن لتسوية بهذا العنوان، وأول المطلوب أن يبلغ الأميركي مرحلة التسليم بلا جدوى المزيد من الرهان على الحرب لتحقيق هدف إسقاط سورية، وهذا تحقق مع التموضع الروسي في سورية نهاية عام 2015 وتكرّس مع معركة حلب نهاية عام 2016، وصارت المرحلة الثانية أن يسلّم الأميركي بأن كلفة الاستنزاف أكبر من كلفة التسويات.

– في حرب الاستنزاف اختبر الأميركي فرضيات الفوضى وهيمنة داعش وصولاً لفرضية التقسيم وفضلها جميعاً على تسوية عنوانها عودة سورية برئيسها وجيشها، لكنها تبخّرت جميعها، وصار الخيار البديل للتسوية هو مواصلة القتال تحت عنوان الحرب على داعش وتكون تركة داعش الرئيسية من نصيب الجيش السوري وحلفائه وخصوصاً حزب الله. وبالتالي قدمت المعادلة الروسية للأميركي بصيغة تقول، إذا كنتم تخشون تموضع حزب الله والإيرانيين في كل الجغرافيا السورية، فحيث يدخل الجيش السوري بالقتال سيدخل معه الإيرانيون حزب الله، وحيث يدخلون لا يمكن لأحد إخراجهم، إنه الوقت لتفكروا بالتسليم الطوعي للمناطق التي تستطيعون الإمساك بقرارها لحساب الجيش السوري فيدخلها وحيداً، والخيار بين سورية برئيسها وجيشها، او سورية برئيسها وجيشها ومعهما إيران وحزب الله على كل الجغرافيا الجديدة للحرب، باعتبار ما مضى قد مضى وصار خارج البحث.

– سقوط الخط الأحمر الأميركي على الحدود السورية العراقية كان النقلة الأهم للتحوّل، والمشاروات التي سبقت لقاء الرئيسين دونالد ترامب وفلاديمير بوتين خلال ثلاثة أسابيع على مساري أستانة من جهة وترتيبات الجنوب، ومن جهة مقابلة لقاءات بحث الملفات المطروحة للتنسيق بين وفدَيْ الخبراء والمستشارين قبيل القمة، قد نجحت ببلوغ المعادلة التي تقول إن كلفة التسوية صارت أقلّ من كلفة المضي بحرب الاستنزاف، وبقي أن تكون كلفة التسويق للتسويات معقولة، فكان الخيار جنوب سورية لربطه أميركياً بهواجس «إسرائيل» وخدمة أمنها، وإمكانية التباهي الأميركي بإبعاد إيران عن الحدود، وكان الخيار أوكرانيا لربط رفع العقوبات بالسير بالتفاهم الموقّع في مينسك لإنهاء النزاع.

– لا صواريخ كورية جديدة ولا طائرات أميركية تخرق الأجواء القريبة من روسيا، ولا سقوط لقطر وتغيير في معادلات سوق الغاز العالمية مقابل لا سقوط لنظام كييف، وذهاب بارد لمراكمة التسوياتز وفي سورية بقاء الرئيس السوري مفتاح الحل تحت شعار ضمان دولة مركزية قوية قادرة على الإمساك بحدودها، فترتاح تركيا وتسكت «إسرائيل»، ويبدأ جنيف كإطار للحل السياسي عندما تبدأ معارك داعش في دير الزور بتنسيق الأكراد مع الجيش السوري وشراكة الروس والأميركيين، ويكون الحضور الكردي في جنيف بداية النزول عن شجرة الكيان الفدرالي والتقسيمي، مقابل حجم تمثيلي في وفد المعارضة يتناسب مع الحجم العسكري.

– وضع محور المقاومة خطّته، كما وضعت إيران خطتها لملفها النووي. فالاعتراف بالإنجاز من الجانب الغربي وشرعنته نصف النصر. وكذلك في سورية، وينضج الغرب لما يصير بديل التسوية بلوغ إيران القدرة على امتلاك القنبلة التي لا تريدها. وهكذا في سورية، لما تصير التسوية بعنوان سورية برئيسها وجيشها بديلاً عما يشبه القنبلة النووية، أي بلوغ حزب الله وإيران بالقوة خطوط التماس مع «إسرائيل». وهذا كما القنبلة النووية ليس هدفاً لسورية ولا لإيران ولا لحزب الله من القتال في سورية، أن يصير الأميركي الذي جاء للحرب لإسقاط سورية برئيسها وجيشها قد صار يرى ببقائهما وعودة اعترافه بهما رداً لخطر أكبر نجح محور المقاومة بجعله خطراً ممكن الحدوث. تلك قمة القوة والحنكة والذكاء الاستراتيجي، تماماً كما وصف باراك أوباما سبب قبول التفاهم النووي مع إيران ووقف العقوبات بالقول، لقد فرضنا العقوبات لنجعل إيران أبعد عن امتلاك القنبلة. واليوم صارت العقوبات الطريق لبلوغ إيران امتلاك القنبلة.

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