How (and Why) Neocons Miscalculated (Andrei Martyanov)

December 26, 2022

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NATO planned a pre-emptive strike on Russia

October 12, 2022

Source

by Batko Milacic

One of the largest French maritime exercises in the Mediterranean, POLARIS 21 (Préparation Opérationnelle en Lutte Aéromaritime, Résilience, Innovation et Supériorité), took place from November 18 to December 3, 2021 in the area west of the island of Corsica, between France and Spain. The exercise also included a segment on the Atlantic coast of mainland France.

POLARIS 21 was set up entirely in the context of operational preparation on several fronts and had a high combat intensity, which was fully in line with the strategic vision of the Chief of the Armed Forces and the Mercator Acceleration 21 plan of the Chief of Staff of the Admiral of the French navy Pierre Vandier. In addition to naval warfare, the exercise also included the participation of many combat aircraft and surface-to-air defense.

Officially, the aim of the training was to test the capabilities of the sea and air elements to face future wars, using the latest systems and naval vessels to develop tactics. The scenario of the exercise was to “enable the Allies to maintain control of the Mediterranean in the event of threat from the Russian air force and navy“.

Polaris 2021 “exercise“

The exercise scenario consisted of two troops (Blue and Red), BLUE consisting of the French Carrier Strike Group (CSG), centered around the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier FS Charles de Gaulle (R91), against a RED FORCES credible opposition force ( OPFOR), gathered around the Mistral-class left-hand drive ‘Tonnerre’.

In total, the exercise saw the participation of 23 ships, one submarine, 65 aircraft and 6,000 personnel. Partner nations joining the exercise came from Greece, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States.

The United States Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Porter (DDG 78), P-8A Poseidon aircraft from Commander, Task Force 67, and the Henry J. Kaiser-class fleet replenishment oiler USNS John Lenthal (T-AO 189) had a very important place in the “exercise“ POLARIS 2021.

Also, U.S. Sixth Fleet, headquartered in Naples, Italy, conducted the full spectrum of joint and naval operations, often in concert with NATO partners, in order to strengthen the power of U.S. in Europe and Africa.

The actual goal of the exercise

However, journalists came into possession of data related to the exercise POLARIS 2021. The data speak clearly about the advance preparation of the NATO to enter into an armed conflict with the Russian Federation in the event of Russia’s intervention in Ukraine.

According to the legend of the maneuvers, it was determined that in response to the alleged Russian intervention, the forces of the NATO coalition would form and send an aircraft carrier strike group led by the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier to the combat area in order to “stop the invasion and preserve the sovereignty of Ukraine.”

The context and scenario of the “exercise“ (the consonance of the names of countries, settlements, the names of political figures, the specifics of maneuvers, etc.) became for the Russian Federation a signal of the real preparation of NATO to the start of hostilities against Russia, as it happened similarly to the operation of the United Defender alliance grouping of forces before the intervention in Libya (the exercises Baltops-2010 and Frisian Flag-2010), when, after the maneuvers at the sea ranges, a full-scale operation followed to overthrow of the legitimate government of Muammar Gaddafi.

POLARIS 2021 was also a demonstration of NATO support to Kyiv in the event of an armed conflict with Russia and was supposed to push Kyiv to start hostilities with the Russian Federation, after which the intervention of the NATO was supposed. In principle, NATO was looking for an excuse to attack Russia, with the factor of surprise, so that Russia would not be ready for an adequate response.

In this situation, the preventive start of the Special Military Operation of the RF Armed Forces in Ukraine became the only possible response to the inevitable aggression of the Kyiv regime and the NATO.

There is no doubt that thanks to the Russian special operation in Ukraine and the fact that Russia launched a preventive strike, it was NATO that was surprised but also scared by the Russian determination to defend its interests. It is precisely this fact that is responsible for why there was not and will not be conflict between Russia and NATO, that is, the Third World War was prevented only thanks to the Russian special operation in Ukraine.

Mobilization and Real Economy

July 20, 2022

Please visit Andrei’s website: https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/
and support him here: https://www.patreon.com/bePatron?u=60459185

Sitrep Operation Z: SloMo Collapse

July 01, 2022

Source

By Saker Staff

Let us deal with Snake Island first as the level of noise is unbelievable.

Snake Island in the Black sea will remain under Russian naval and air control. Russian Politician Alexei Chernyak.

End of story

Russia can take that piece of serpentine rock and missile it to non-existence but they’ve just used a rock to remove the Ukraine’s biggest impediment (lie) about the paltry amount of wheat in the ships still unable to make passage. Now the supposed ‘international order’ have no more excuses and the Ukraine must demine their naval mines. But always remember, we’re dealing with the Empire of Lies!

For this one, we will look at the bigger world first, and then we will go on to the ramparts.

A reminder: What is this all about?

A Biden advisor says that US drivers will pay a gas premium for as long as it takes, because:

“This is about the future of the liberal world order and we have to stand firm.” https://t.me/IntelRepublic/1516

Liberal world order is code for the rules-based international order which is code for a single pole of power in our world.  In other words, they understand on some level that they are fighting for their existence as the ultimate ruler.

In sharp contrast, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov – Minsk, June 30, 2022

The future world order is at stake. We will go back to the origins and observe in practice the UN Charter principles, above all the principle of sovereign equality of states, or else the world will be plunged into chaos for a long time. Our choice is clear: We stand for unconditional respect for international law. We will uphold this position together with our Belarusian allies and our other numerous like-minded partners who share these approaches, which was confirmed during the recent BRICS summit and in the final documents adopted at this summit.

Russia and the multi-polar world are getting stronger day by day.  Let’s take a look at how the mighty are falling:

EU Circus

We posted a Douglas MacGregor clip recently with the heading: Its collapsed

There is little to be said here and we can only depict this with a cartoon or two.  The number of cartoons generated by this circus exceeded all expectations.  Everyone was cartooning!

NATO – Crisis of Existence and another announcement of Wunderwaffe

The Chinese friends report on the NATO split:

“On the issue of the Russia-Ukraine conflict alone, there are different demands among Western countries, as Germany, France and Italy want to stop the war as soon as possible, and the US is calling on all NATO countries to make a common cause against Russia. Wang Shuo, a professor at the School of International Relations of Beijing Foreign Studies University, believes that in this situation, many European countries are questioning whether NATO can solve the crisis in Ukraine. If it cannot work, what’s the point of NATO’s existence? At the moment when Europeans believe that NATO needs to play a role, it proved itself disunited and incompetent, another sign of NATO’s existential crisis.”

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202206/1269395.shtml

And on the NATO document:

Zhao Lijian: The NATO 2022 Strategic Concept has misrepresented facts and distorted the truth. In this document, NATO once again wrongly defined China as posing “systemic challenges”. It smeared China’s foreign policy and pointed fingers at China’s normal military posture and defense policy. The document seeks to stoke confrontation and antagonism and smacks heavily of Cold War mentality and ideological bias. China is gravely concerned over this and firmly opposes it.

Here is our message for NATO: hyping up the so-called “China threat” will lead nowhere. NATO must immediately stop its groundless accusations and provocative rhetoric against China, abandon the outdated Cold War mentality and zero-sum game mindset, renounce its blind faith in military might and misguided practice of seeking absolute security, halt the dangerous attempt to destabilize Europe and the Asia-Pacific, and act in the interest of security and stability in Europe and beyond.

The Baltic States no longer believe in NATO.

Latvia and Estonia decided to buy air defense systems for joint defense.

“The NATO Summit gave a clear signal that assistance will be provided to those who are ready to defend themselves,” Estonian Defense Minister Laanet said. The initiative to develop regional defense was also supported by his Latvian counterpart Pabriks. “We are working on developing our own capabilities,” he stressed.

Finland states it will NOT extradite its citizens to OTHER countries UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES – Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto.

So, already Turkey’s pre-condition to Finland entering the NATO bloc is falling apart. Perhaps The Sultan knows that this may not happen at all.  This is what it looks like: Finland and Sweden have not joined NATO yet, and there is a long process ahead, says Erdogan. According to him, the signatures at the Madrid summit do not mean the end of the work to eliminate Ankara’s concerns. Turkey wants to see in practice what the decisions reached will mean.

Scholz (for what he is worth) at this very same NATO meet, got scared and quickly urged not to hinder the transit of Russian goods to Kaliningrad.  He wants to reduce the tensions in the  Baltic region.  The most interesting is that Politico reports this.  But then, he wants to set the rules according to some rules-based international order concept that he seemingly thinks he is entitled to promulgate on the spot.

“Transit rules should be established taking into account the fact that we are dealing here with traffic between two parts of Russia,” he said at the NATO summit in Madrid.

And he also tumbles the sanctions:

“In the case of Kaliningrad, an exception should be made from anti-Russian sanctions”, Scholz stressed.

Politician and former energy minister Panagiotis Lafazanis urges (https://ria.ru/20220701/lafazanis-1799505196.html)

Greece to conclude a strategic alliance with Russia and to lift sanctions, because “Europe is hit hard by the sanctions. Europe has shot itself.”

And then, Germany Seizes Gazprom LNG Tankers which belonged to the Russian energy giants German subsidiary – Gazprom Germania.  And Russia in the form of Gazprom turns up the Pain Dial by turning off the gas faucet to the company, and key gas retailers in Germany and the UK suddenly stare as the bottom of the tank becomes visible.

So, given the extracts from the last few days through the EU Circus and NATO’s announcement of Wunderwaffen, can you see clearly that they are telling only big stories. These weapons may not materialize, and most know it. Besides, if Russia does not destroy them, she buys them.

Arms trade on the line of contact and indirect deliveries of military equipment from Europe to Russia by Ukrainians

In the context of the news (https://t.me/vzglyad_ru/57577) about the transfer of another six units of CAESAR self-propelled guns by France to Ukraine, we want to talk a little about how things are with the arms trade on the line of contact.

We already wrote that two CAESAR self-propelled guns went to the Russian side for a ridiculous 120 thousand dollars. At the same time, Ukrainian negotiators initially requested $1 million for the launcher.

How it looks technically in practice:

• Negotiations are underway through special forces on the possibility of acquiring one or another model of foreign equipment;
• Since this whole thing is taking place on the line of contact, control over specific types of weapons and military equipment received from the West is rather conditional there: the most you can count on is a relatively timid commander and rather zealous representatives of the SBU, who will not give a damn about reputational losses of Ukraine in case of loss of foreign equipment;
• The Russian side acts as a picky buyer who does not need outdated weapons and military equipment: everything that is needed was obtained by undercover intelligence and so on. Local Ukrainian businessmen are trying to cash in and somehow sell the RF Armed Forces what they have. As a result, the deals go through, but are guided by the Russian side, at the same time, only by the expediency of maintaining contacts with the enemy;
• In the line of special forces, they agree on the organization of a massive artillery raid on a certain already empty square to divert attention while the actual transfer of equipment is carried out;
• The Russian side has already expressed interest in acquiring HIMARS. They asked for more ammo.
• To the Russian side, we repeat, such deals provide an opportunity to maintain working contacts with the Ukrainian side, which in the future will allow solving much more pressing issues. On the Ukrainian side, there is a great desire not to fight and earn money.

So that is one of the deals with the wunderwaffe.  Here is another:

Some watcher of Ukrainian channels report that Ukrainian General Staff asked Zelensky in the role of the President to please please stop requesting 777 howitzers and NLAW anti-tank systems, which quickly fail or do not function at all.

(The telegram channel where I found this, notes .. hahahahah fucking Wunderwaffe)

Xi Jinping’s current visit to Hong Kong for its 25^th anniversary since its handover from the Brits, speaks volumes. As well as Mr. Putin’s planned visit to the upcoming G20. The fact that these two leaders are now traveling outside of their countries must show that something has changed. Either the risk of Covid is now such that they can take it, or the security environment has changed so that their security staff considers such visits as an acceptable risk.

Europe is slowly curtailing payments to Ukrainian refugees.  Poland no longer pays for food and accommodation for Ukrainian refugees, with exception of pregnant women, disabled people, and families with many children.

These are convincing arguments that the EU is breaking and NATO is cracking.

To the ramparts we go

Russian Defense Ministry announces successful advance into Lisichansk, Lugansk region, with Russian and allied forces taking control of the Lisichansk oil refinery as well as other key districts in the city, as Ukrainian forces said to be in disorganized retreat.

Sergei Kiriyenko visited the Kharkov region. Such a visit is considered a sign that Putin has made a decision that the region, now Kharkiv, and formerly Zaporozhye and Kherson will be annexed to Russia. The issuance of Russian passports has started and the formation of administration is in progress.  Russia takes full responsibility for such a region. The Russian flag is forever if Kiriyenko, who is responsible specifically for domestic politics, has been there.

This lovely photo was taken in the Lugansk region.

Once the passports flow, and the banks open, Russia is there: The first branch of Promsvyazbank, one of the largest Russian state banks, has opened in Kherson and already there is a bunch of people in line:  https://t.me/EurasianChoice/16207

The Kyiv regime is trying to hide the defeat of the Ukrainian troops in Severodonetsk and present the flight of the UAF militants from the Lysychansk direction as a tactical retreat.

Detail as usual comes in many forms and thank you to the commentators who regularly post different takes.  Be aware we’re coming from the fog of Lisichansk, so, don’t believe everything that every Tom, Dick, and Harry pronounce.  Always confirm with the Russian MoD report.    We still like Military Summary.  I would suggest you take in the last report of yesterday before you look at today’s first report.  The reason for that is that he mentions at the end some of those that he works with.

Payback is in progress for the total hack of all Russian sources as the SMO started.

XakNet Team (https://t.me/xaknet_team) hackers hacked the website of the Ukraine is Our Home TV channel. Now the anthem of Russia is played there.

Earlier (https://t.me/rt_russian/117872), they said that they had gained access to the systems of Ukrainian energy companies of the DTEK group.

And today (https://t.me/intelslava/32332), the Killnet (https://t.me/+a3ATRboVqh05MWNi) group brought down the website of the US Federal Tax Payment System.

Enjoy the discussion.  This sitrep will stay up until it gets too full of comments and then we will refresh.

Andrei Martyanov on “RKR Moskva and Sitrep On The Run”

April 15, 2022

Tu-22M3 and MiG-31 K with Dagger missiles were transferred to Syria

February 15, 2022

Machine translation from this source:

Tu-22M3 and MiG-31 K with Dagger missiles were transferred to Syria to participate in exercises of the Russian Navy

The Russian Defense Ministry reported that the crews of the VKS performed a flight from the points of deployment, having overcome more than 1.5 thousand km.

MOSCOW, February 15. /tass/. Tu-22M3 and MiG-31K long-range aircraft with Dagger missiles have been transferred to the Khmeimim airbase in Syria to participate in naval exercises of the Navy in the Mediterranean Sea. This was reported by the Russian Defense Ministry on Tuesday.

“The Tu-22M3 and MiG-31K long-range aircraft with the Dagger aviation complex have been relocated to the Khmeimim airfield (SAR) to participate in the naval exercise of the Navy’s inter-fleet grouping in the eastern Mediterranean. The crews of the Russian Air Force performed a flight from the points of deployment, having overcome more than 1.5 thousand km. During the exercise, long-range aviation pilots will have to perform tasks according to their intended purpose,” the ministry said.

As previously reported in the press service of the 6th fleet of the US Navy, from 6 to 7 February 2022, three aircraft carrier strike groups of NATO countries met in the Mediterranean Sea at once. A group of US Navy ships was led by the aircraft carrier Harry Truman, the French fleet was led by the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, and the Italian Navy was represented by the aircraft carrier Conte di Cavour. The combined squadron included a large number of ships and support vessels, as well as naval aviation groups.

Shoigu and Gerasimov cause serious confusion in NATO (MUST WATCH!)

January 27, 2022

This video has its source here and was subtitled for the Saker Blog by Eugenia

روسيا حسمت المعركة استراتيجياً والعرين الأوكراني قيد الانهيار

محمد صادق الحسيني

سنضربهم ضربة قاصمة والنتائج ستكون كارثيّة. نعم ولكن نحن سنذهب شهداء الى الجنّة فيما هم الى جهنم…

 روسيا الفيدرالية ليس في عقيدتها ما يُسمّى بالضربة الاستباقيّة…

هذا ما أكده الرئيس الروسي فلاديمير بوتين خلال الساعات القليلة الماضية.

وهذه العقيدة الروسية هي عقيدة سوفياتيّة أيضاً وهي تعود في الواقع الى الحرب العالمية الثانية يوم عقد ستالين اتفاقاً تاريخياً للصلح مع هتلر في العام ١٩٣٩ بيوم واحد قبل إعلانه الحرب على بولندا والتي أشعلت الحرب العالمية الثانية، رغم كل تخوّفات السوفيات آنذاك من الزعيم النازي.

لكن تجربتهم الناجحة في الدفاع بقيادة الجنرال تشيكوف الذي امتصّ الضربة المفاجأة أولاً ومن ثم عبّأ وحشد ونظم المقاومة ثانياً، ومن بعد ذلك شنّ الحرب الدفاعية من لينينغراد الى ستالينينغراد وصولاً الى إسقاط برلين، ما بلور لدى القيادة السوفياتية ما عرف في ما بعد بنظرية: استيعاب الضربة الأولى، استعادة زمام المبادرة الميدانية ثم الهجوم الكاسح حتى تدمير مصدر النيران.

وهكذا عمل ابن الـ كا جي بي وابن لينينغراد فلاديمير بوتين، منذ العام ٢٠١٤ عندما هوجم أمن بلاده القومي في اوكرانيا..

قام باستيعاب الضربة، أعاد تنظيم تموضعه العام ضمّ شبه جزيرة القرم لمنع سقوط البحر الأسود بيد الأطلسي ثم تهيأ لأي جديد وخاض المواجهة القاسية في روسيا البيضاء، وكان أوج مواجهته مع عدوّه وغريمه الأميركي والأطلسي بمفاجأة ٧ أيار الكازاخستاني عندما سحق التمرّد والانقلاب والهجوم الغربي معاً خلال أقل من ٤٨ ساعة..!

ولما عاود الغرب توظيف اوكرانيا بالاحتيال والكذب المستمر وخداع الرأي العام ما كان من بوتين كما تؤكد المعلومات إلا أن يبلغ الأطلسيين كما واشنطن، بأن دخولهم أوكرانيا يعني وصول القوات المسلحة الروسية الى حدود حلف وارسو أي عند برلين الغربية سابقاً وذلك لإيجاد الصدمة التي يحتاجها من اجل تنظيم صفوف جيوشه.

في هذه الأثناء قام بتفسيخ أوكرانيا قطعة قطعة، وهو ما نجح به حتى الأن من الدون باس حتى مشارف العاصمة الأوكرانية…!

وهكذا يكون بوتين قد كسب حرب أوكرانيا بدون إطلاق طلقة واحدة وجعل حكومة كييف النازية بين يديه ساعة يشاء.

الأميركيون والأطلسيون اذن، هُزموا في اوكرانيا بعد هزيمتهم في بيلاروسيا وكازاخستان وآسيا الوسطى والقوقاز. ولا خوف من حدوث صدام كبير لأن الغربيين يعرفون محدوديّة قدراتهم العسكرية.

الهيمنة والعنجهية الغربية انتهت.

الدليل على ذلك المناورات البحرية والجوية والبرية التي تجريها روسيا في كل مكان.

انظروا الى الدوريات الجوية الروسية السورية المشتركة على حدود فلسطين المحتلة…

 وهذه رسالة للأميركي والإسرائيلي بأننا نحن الروس سندمّر قواعدكم الصاروخيّة في «اسرائيل» أيضاً.. انظروا كذلك الى الحشد البحري الروسي الضخم في محيط طرطوس، حيث ستجري مناورات تشترك فيها كافة صنوف القوات. والبند الأول على جدول العمليات هو التدرب على تدمير أهداف معادية في مناطق بعيدة بواسطة صواريخ كاليبر (وغيرها طبعاً).

ستنطلق عاصفة صواريخ من شرق المتوسط الى أوكرانيا وغيرها من الدول المعادية لروسيا.

بعدنا طيبين قولوا الله…

سر التصلب الإيراني في فيينا… ابحثوا عن السلاح السري!

ألاربعاء كانون أول 15, 2021 

محمد صادق الحسيني

تدور نقاشات معمّقةً، بين الكثير من المحللين والباحثين العسكريين والاستراتيجيين الأوروبيين، حول سرّ التصلب الإيراني في المفاوضات النووية، الجارية في فيينا منذ حوالي اسبوعين تقريباً، وهو التصلب الناتج، حسب تقديرهم عن ثقة زائدة بالنفس، سواءً على الصعيد السياسي او الدبلوماسي، وقبل كلّ شيء على الصعيد العسكري.

ويعتقد هولاء انّ ذلك يعود الى اسباب عديدة، او يمكن ربطه بعوامل قوةٍ إيرانيةٍ استراتيجية خفيةً، تُمَكِن القيادة الإيرانية من المناورة الاستراتيجية المستندة الى قوةٍ عسكرية خارقةّ تجعل من المستحيل على خصوم إيران ان يفكروا جدياً بالقيام باي عملية عسكرية ضد إيران، مهما كانت محدودة.

ومع انه من نافل القول ان يُشار الى الفرق الهائل في القدرات العسكرية، بين الولايات المتحدة وإيران، الا ان هؤلاء الخبراء يرجعون صلابة الموقف الإيراني، السياسي والعسكري، الى سببين رئيسيين هما:

أولاً: ان تكون إيران تمتلك نظام حرب الكترونية شبيه بنظام الحرب الالكترونية الروسي، من طراز: مورمانسك بي إن (Murmansk B N). وهو نظام تشويش الكتروني مخصص لاعتراض الموجات اللاسلكية المعادية والتشويش عليها او قطعها. ويغطي عمل هذا النظام كامل طيف الموجة القصيرة (موجة الإرسال)، بدءاً من ثلاثة وحتى ثلاثين ميغاهيرتز (٣ – ٣٠ ميغاهيرتز)، وهي الموجه المستخدمة بين سلاح الجو وسلاح البحرية ومراكز القيادة والسيطر في القوات المسلحه الأميركيه (بالاضافة الى قوات حلفاء أميركا في المنطقة).

وهذا يعني انّ أنظمة التشويش الروسية تبدأ بالتشويش على اتصالات العدو بمجرد ان يكتشف النظام اي اشارة لاسلكية معاديه، مما يؤدي الى قطع التواصل، بالكامل، بين القوات الجوية والبحرية، العاملة في مسرح العمليات، ومراكز القيادة والسيطرة.

الامر الذي يؤدي، وبشكل فوري الى سقوط أسراب الطائرات المهاجمة، للاراضي الروسية او الإيرانية في هذه الحالة، ودون اطلاق طلقةً واحدة باتجاه هذه الطائرات. وهو ما ينطبق على القطع البحرية ايضاً، حيث يقوم هذا النظام بحجب الاتصالات بين الاساطيل الجوية والبحرية ومراكز قيادتها وذلك عبر حجب إشارات الاقمار الصناعية بالكامل عنها.

وبكلمات أخرى، فان القوات الأميركية وقوات حلف شمال الاطلسي تصبح عاجزةً عن تنفيذ اية عمليات قتالية، ضمن دائرة قطرها خمسة آلاف كيلو متر.

ولهذا السبب بالذات، دائرة الخمسة آلاف كيلومتر فإنّ روسيا قد قامت بنشر هذا النظام في كلٍ من:

– شبه جزيرة القرم، في جنوب غرب روسيا.

– شبه جزيرة كولا Kola Peninsula (شمال غرب روسيا / اي في اقصى شمال شرق فنلندا وبالقرب من القطب الشمالي للكرة الارضية).

– مقاطعة كالينينغراد Kaliningrad، وهي المقاطعة الروسية غير المتصلة جغرافياً، عبر البر، مع روسيا، والواقعة على ساحل خليج دانتسيغ  (Danzig)، بين ليتوانيا وبولندا.

– الشرق الاقصى (اي منطقة جنوب الساحل الروسي على المحيط الهادئ في مقاطعة ڤلاديڤوستوك – تبعد عن موسكو مسافة عشر ساعات طيران).

بالاضافة الى ان الاساطيل الروسية جميعها، اسطول الشمال / اسطول بحر البلطيق / اسطول البحر الاسود واسطول المحيط الهادئ، مزودةً بهذا النظام القاتل والقادر، كما أشرنا اعلاه، على إسقاط كافة التشكيلات الجوية او الصواريخ الاستراتيجية او غيرها من وسائل الحرب الجوية في دائرة خمسة آلاف كيلو متر.

وبذلك فإنّ هذا النظام يغطي كافة أنحاء أراضي جمهورية روسيا الاتحادية، الامر الذي يجعل روسيا محمية بالكامل، وليست بحاجةٍ لا للدخول في سباق تسلح ولا حتى في حرب محدودةً او واسعة مع خصومها.

كما لا بدّ من التذكير، بانّ هناك نظاماً آخر، رديف لهذا النظام، في الحرب الالكترونية، منتشراً في المناطق والاساطيل الروسية، المشار اليها أعلاه، ومخصص لحجب او قطع وصول اشارات نظام الاتصالات الدولي / جي بي إس GPS، وهو نظام كراسوخا / ٤ (Krasukha 4).

وهو ما يعني ان القوات المعادية سوف تكون هائمةً في الميدان، دون ايّ اتصالات، لا بين القوات على الارض ولا بين القوات ومراكز القيادة. ما يجعل الحرب قد حسمت دون طلقةٍ واحدة.

ويخلص الباحثون والاستراتيجيون الأوروبيون الى انّ إيران تملك هذا النظام قطعاً، خاصةً وانّ الطيارين الأميركيين قد اشتكوا مراراً، حسب العديد من أخبار وتقارير لصحف ومجلات أميركية مختصة بالشؤون العسكرية، من تعرّض طائراتهم، ومن بينها طائرات F 35 الشبحية، الى تشويش الكتروني قوي، في الأجواء السورية، ارغمهم على قطع مهماتهم والعودة الى قواعدهم.

كما لا بدّ من التذكير بأنّ مطار تل ابيب قد تعرّض، قبل حوالي عام، الى تشويش الكتروني شديد، استمرّ حوالي ثلاثة أشهر، وأسفر عن ارتباك شديد جداً في حركة الطيران في أجواء المطار واضطر سلطات الملاحة الجوية المعنية الى تغيير مسارات الطائرات لمحاولة تفادي التشويش، دون جدوى. وهو ما أرغم سلطات المطار آنذاك الى تحويل عشرات الرحلات الجوية الى مطار لارنكا القبرصي.

وعلى الرغم من كثرة التحليلات، لأسباب ما حدث في مطار تل ابيب، فانّ الخبراء المذكورين أعلاه، يعتقدون جازمين انّ سبب ذلك هو تدريبات إيرانية على أجهزة تشويش الكتروني إيرانية، شبيهة في مواصفاتها لنظام التشويش الروسي: مورمانسك / بي إن (Murmansk B N)، وهو نظام متحرك محمول على شاحنات عسكرية ثقيلة.

ثانياً: ان تكون إيران تملك انظمة سلاح كهرومغناطيسي (Non- Nuclear Electromagnetic) NNMP)Empuls)  قوي جداً قادرٌ على تدمير مدن باكملها. وهي انظمة يمكن اطلاقها عبر وسائل مختلفه اهمها؛

– الصواريخ المجنحة.

– المروحيات القتالية.

– الطائرات المسيّرة.

وجميعها وسائل قتال جوي تمتلك منها إيران الكثير الكثير، خاصة الصواريخ المجنحة، وانواع الصواريخ الثقيلة والبعيدة المدى الاخرى.

مع العلم ان القوة التدميرية لهذا السلاح تعتمد على قوة الموجه الكهرومغناطيسية التي تنتج عن انفجار الرأس الحربي للصاروخ او المسيرّة التي تحمله. وعليه فان هناك احجاماً، وبالتالي قدرات تدميرية، مختلفة لكل موجة كهرومغناطيسية (او صاروخ كهرومغناطيسي)، يتم التحكم بحجمها من قبل صانع القرار العسكري ومن قابل الشركات او المؤسسات الصانعة لهذه الاسلحة.

وعلى الرغم من ان الخبراء الاستراتيجيين، المذكورين اعلاه، يعتقدون ان هناك بعض الصعوبة في تدمير مدن بكاملها، من خلال هذا السلاح، الا أنهم مقتنعون بأنّ هذا السلاح قادر على تدمير البنى التحتية، كمحطات توليد الكهرباء وتحلية المياه ومراكز الاتصالات ومراكز القيادة والسيطرة العسكرية والخدماتية، لأيّ دولة كانت وبشكل كامل، مما يعني ان “إسرائيل”، في هذه الحالة التي يجري فيها النقاش حول امكانيات الردع الإيرانية، فإنّ الجيش “الإسرائيلي”، بكافة صنوفه، سيصبح خارج الخدمة، ايّ غير قادر على القيام بأيّ عمليات عسكرية، مهما صغرت، مما يجعل مسألة تدمير حيفا وتل أبيب وتسويتها بالأرض، حسب بعض التصريحات الصحافية الإيرانية في مناسبات متعددة، أمراً غير ضروري.

وذلك انطلاقاً من حقيقة ان إحداث حالة شلل كامل، في كافة مناحي الحياة، العسكرية منها والمدنية، في “إسرائيل” سيفتح الطريق، امام قوات حلف المقاومة، للوصول، بكل سهولة، حتى الى القدس وليس فقط الى حيفا وتل ابيب.

وهذا طبعاً ليس سيناريو خياليا، على الاطلاق، وانما هو توصيف للمشهد الذي سيلي استخدام مثل هذه الاسلحة، من قبل إيران، والتي لا توجد وسائل للتصدي لها بفعالية.

ولعلّ أبلغ دليل على انّ هذه الاحتمالات، التي يجري بحثها وتحليلها، بعد دراستها، من قبل أهل الاختصاص المُنَوَهْ اليهم اعلاه، لعل ابلغ دليل على ذلك هو:

التقرير، المكوّن من مائتين وثماني صفحات، والذي أعدّته لجنة أميركية مختصة، مكونة من تسعة علماء، لتقييم اخطار تعرض الولايات المتحدة الأميركية لهجوم كهرومغناطيسي، ونشرته في شهر نيسان ٢٠٠٨، واكدت فيه كل الاحتمالات، المشار اليها أعلاه.

وفي الخلاصة فلا بدّ من التأكيد على حقائق ساطعةً، تتعلق بالموقف الإيراني في المفاوضات النووية وغيرها من المفاوضات الاقليمية، هي التالية:

1 ـ لا مصلحة للولايات المتحدة الأميركية بالدخول في صراع مسلح جديد وطويل الأمد التي في الشرق الاوسط. وهو أمر يعلمه صانع القرار الإيراني ويبني عليه. وهذا هو الركن الاول للموقف الإيراني الصلب.

2 ـ ان التصريحات الصاخبة والضجيج “الإسرائيلي” المرافق لها، حول الموقف من إيران، بما في ذلك زيارات المسؤولين العسكريين والامنيين “الإسرائيليين” المتتابعة لواشنطن، لا تتعدّى كونها جعجعة بلا طحين. وهذا ما يعرفه صانع القرار الإيراني ويبني عليه ايضاً. وبذلك نكون قد وصلنا الى الركن الثاني في اركان الموقف الإيراني الصلب.

3 ـ ان كلّ ما نراه ونسمعه، حول مجمل مسارات الصراع، وعلى كامل مسرح عمليات الشرق الأوسط، بين حلف المقاومة والولايات المتحدة وأتباعها في الشرق الاوسط، إنما هو انعكاس لموازين القوى الاستراتيجية، في المنطقة والعالم، خاصة اذا وضعنا في الاعتبار تزايد التوتر بين الولايات المتحدة والصين وبين الولايات المتحدة وروسيا، وما لهذا الصراع من انعكاسات على التحالفات القوى الدولية، او الدول العظمى، مع القوى الاقليمية في الشرق الاوسط.

وهو ما يتضح بشدّة من خلال سماح واشنطن لأتباعها العرب بفتح قنوات تواصل مع إيران، بعد ان كانت قد أمرتهم بنقل المعركة الى داخل إيران، قبل سنوات، وفشلوا في ذلك. وهو الفشل الذي وجد انعكاساً له في كلمة محمد بن سلمان، مساء يوم ١٤/١٢/٢٠٢١، التي ألقاها في افتتاح ما يُسمّى: قمة التعاون الخليجي، واعلن فيها عن ضرورة إيجاد حلّ سياسي للحرب على اليمن.

ايّ انه اعترف، ولو بشكل غير مباشر، بفشل مغامرته في اليمن، التي تستمرّ مشاهدها الإجرامية منذ سبع سنوات.

وهذا ايضاً يعرفه صانع القرار الإيراني ويبني عليه. وعليه فان ذلك يشكل الركن الثالث للموقف الإيراني الصلب، على كل المستويات، وليس فقط في المفاوضات النووية في فيينا.

4 ـ اما الركن الرابع، الذي يستند اليه الموقف الإيراني الصلب، فهو العمى السياسي والاستراتيجي “الإسرائيلي” من ناحية، وصلابة وصبر اطراف حلف المقاومه الاستراتيجي، وفي كلّ الساحات.

اذ انّ قادة هذا الكيان السياسي، المسمّى “إسرائيل”، والمقام في فلسطين المحتلة، غائبون عن الوعي تماماً ولا قدرة لهم جميعاً على قراءة الوضع الاستراتيجي لكيانهم، بشكل موضوعي. بمعنى انهم يواصلون ضجيجهم واثارة الهلع بين مستوطنيهم لأسباب حزبية وشخصية تافهة ولا قيمة لها، ولا تمتّ للفهم السياسي والاستراتيجي بأية صله.

صحيح انّ الكثير من دول العالم تشهد مثل هذه الصراعات، الدائرة بين الأحزاب والقوى والشخوص، التي تسمّي نفسها سياسية في هذا الكيان، الا انّ تلك الدول تبقى دولاً ليست مهدّدة بالزوال، كما هو حال الكيان، في حالة قراءةٍ سياسية او استراتيجية خاطئة. وانما سيقتصر الامر على زوال حزب سياسي بعينه او طبقة سياسية معينة.

وهذا طبعاً ما يعرفه صانع القرار الإيراني ويبني عليه، تمهيداً لإطلاق الصفحة الاخيرة من الهجوم الاستراتيجي لحلف المقاومة، والذي انطلق من حلب السورية، كما الشيخ عز الدين القسام، قائد اول ثورة فلسطينية منظمة سنة ١٩٣٦. هذا الهجوم الذي سينتهي بدخول قوات حلف المقاومة، برداً وسلاماً، الى القدس المحررة في أقرب الآجال.

بعدنا طيبين قولوا الله…

Putin: We Can Carry Out Unpreventable Strikes Against Any Enemy

Jul 25, 2021

Source: Al Mayadeen Net

By Al Mayadeen Net

On the Russian Navy Day, Russian President Vladimir Putin stresses that his country is capable of discovering and striking any naval target.

Putin participates in inspecting the course of the military parade (Sputnik)

Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared that the Russian Navy can detect any enemy and, if necessary, carry out an unpreventable strike against it.

On the occasion of the Navy Day, Putin said at a grand naval parade in St. Petersburg on the Baltic Sea, “Today, the Russian Navy has everything it needs to guarantee the protection of our Motherland and our national interests. We can detect any underwater, surface, or airborne enemy and carry out an unpreventable strike against it, if necessary.”

Noting that the Russian Navy possesses now powerful ships in the global oceans, and nuclear-powered missile submarines, he stressed: “We have effective long-range and short-range naval aviation, reliable coastal defense systems, the latest hypersonic high-precision weapons systems that still have no analogs in the world, which we are constantly and successfully improving.”

Putin added that “The naval presence of Russia is ensured in almost all regions of the World Ocean, and the watch in the northern and southern latitudes is carried out by the faithful heirs of the naval military glory.”

325th Anniversary of #Russian Navy.#INS Tabar is part of the mobile column being reviewed by President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin. #RussianNavy #IndianNavy pic.twitter.com/9Ce6Nzysci— Shivani Sharma (@shivanipost) July 25, 2021

On the Russian Navy Day on July 25 of each year, the Commander of the Armed Forces, President Vladimir Putin, participates in the main naval parade in the waters of the Neva River in Saint Petersburg.

Around 4,000 sailors, more than 50 ships, boats, and submarines, as well as 48 combat aircraft and helicopters from naval aviation will participate in the parade.

Also partaking in the naval military parade are naval vessels from several European and Asian countries, including India, France, Iran, and Pakistan.

Before the start of the main part of the parade, the head of state inspected the course of the warships’ parade in the waters of the Gulf of Finland and on the Kronstadt waterway on the coast guard boat. Putin also congratulated the crew on the day of the Russian Navy, which celebrates its 325th anniversary today. 

• Admiral Khanzadi: Iranian Ships in Gulf of Finland is Historic Event
• Iranian Naval Fleet Arrives in Russia’s St. Petersburg to Attend Naval Parade 

Russian Navy Does 1st Exercises in the Pacific Ocean Since Cold War (Ruslan Ostashko)

July 07, 2021

Translated by Sasha and subtitled by Leo.

The Russian Navy organized training exercises in the center of the Pacific Ocean for the first time in recent history. On June 21, our Pacific Fleet deployed up to 20 vessels and the same amount of aircraft for the training. By the way, take note of the maneuvers’ date, on the eve of the Memory and Mourning Day when our people remember all those who perished as a result of the treacherous attack by the Western ‘partners’ on the USSR.

Russia has long made itself into a ship distributor, strenuously modernizing its navy and upsetting its geopolitical adversaries with that. Navy ships don’t get launched in order to rust at the pier, as is customary in the ‘independent’ Euro-Ukria. The Russian sailors keep training constantly in the near combat conditions, in order to be able to repel the aggressor, in case of an attack on our country, regardless of whether such an aggressor attacks from the de-facto occupied by the US European Union or from another Eastern direction.

Source: RIA News – “Combat vessels of the Pacific Fleet, together with the navy aircraft, are conducting naval exercises in the central part of the Pacific Ocean for the first time in recent history. The exercises take place in an area situated 2.5 thousand miles (approx. 4.6 thousand kilometers east of the Kuril Islands.”

As our fellow countrymen joke, 2.5 thousand miles east of the Kuril Islands is almost Hawaii. It is obvious that the ocean regions in question are those that the USA has been regarding for a long time as the exclusive zone of their interest. Now Russian missiles and aircraft are flying there. Naval vessels are also sailing over there.

Source: RIA News – “The exercises brought into play up to 20 surface vessels, submarines and support ships. The Flag Ship of the Pacific Fleet Missile Cruiser ‘Varyag’, the Frigate ‘Marshal Shaposhnikov’, the Corvettes ‘Aldar Tsydenzhapov’, ‘Sovershenny’ and ‘Gromky’, as well as a submarine are taking part. Additionally, the exercises involved a number of the Naval Aviation Tu-142M3 anti-submarine aircraft that undertook a 14-hour flight to the overall distance of 10,000 km. Overall 12 aircraft are involved in the exercises. Apart from the Tupolevs, these are Il-38 anti-submarine aircraft, MiG-31BM fighter-interceptors, an IL-78 refueling aircraft and deck helicopters Ka-27.”

The program for the training is also worth a note. Our Defence Ministry is not trying to conceal whom the sailors are training to sink.

Source: RIA News – “The vessels and aircraft have already worked through a few tasks, namely, destruction of an aircraft carrier strike group of a mock enemy, as well as a mock cruise missile strike on the enemy’s onshore targets.”

Which openly hostile towards Russian state cuts the waves of the Pacific Ocean with its aircraft carrier strike groups? There’s only one – the USA. Other aircraft carrier groups exist in possession of the British sworn ‘partner’s and of the French ones. But those don’t poke their heads into the Pacific Ocean. And we are not in conflict with the Chinese who build aircraft carriers at a higher rate. It is very significant that the training began on 21 June, on the eve of the most tragic date in our country’s history when we remember everyone who gave their lives in fight with Hitlerism. Now Hitlerism has been de facto rehabilitated in the territories of the independent limitrophe states that diligently serve the USA. The SS veterans march in the Baltic states. Recently in Kiev, the presidential guard regiment took part in a funeral service for an SS member.

“In the Ukraine, the former member of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN) and the SS Division “Galicia” (both organizations illegal in Russia) Orest Vaskula was buried with presidential honors. This is not a figure of speech. The regiment of the presidential guard named under Bogdan Khmelnitsky took part in the ceremony.”

With the background of the blunt resurrection of Nazism under the patronage of the State Department, the exercises of the Pacific Fleet in the zone of American geopolitical interests hints, as it were, to the Washington hawks who lost the last sense of reality: Russia will not allow the tragedy of 22 June 1941 to be repeated. The means for that are available. Late in May, the media wrote about the alarm in the USA caused by a discovery of a foreign drone, presumably the Russian device ‘Poseidon’ capable of causing a tsunami by an underwater nuclear explosion and washing away the American coastal cities.

In a word, welcome into the multipolar world, America, who is used to moving its troops to the borders of others but who is not used to military exercises of other countries near her own border. Russia has returned to the great geopolitical game and continues increasing its weight. And the dollar printing press turned to max power is not helping the Americans to reduce their arrears in armament, despite the fact that their military spending is comparable to the Russian and Chinese spending combined.

Source: RIA FAN – “The combined defense spendings of Russia and China have increased the military budgets of the USA, stated the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley. Senator Jim Inhofe cited this reason for the need of greater military spending in the United States. According to him, the buying power of currencies must be taken into account during drafting the budgets. As a result, it turns out that the CPR spends $604 billion dollars and Russia spends around $200 billion.”

Where is the limit of increase? The USA have already spent $780 billion dollars on defense in 2020. It didn’t help. The Americans still could not design a breakthrough weapon. While Russia did it. The hypersonic missiles can be deployed next time during the exercises somewhere near Hawaii. On which occasion I congratulate us all, dear fellow countrymen. The Pacific Ocean is ours.

Russian Navy in the Eastern Mediterranean — snapshot of activity

May 06, 2021

A snapshot of the Russian Navy escorting Iranian shipping from the Suez Canal to Syria.

By Nat South for the Saker Blog

Back in April there was uncorroborated information circulated on social media, announcing that Russia was to protect the Iranian ships — in particular the tankers carrying vital oil supplies to Syria.  Yet, it wasn’t readily known whether this would be a regular mission for the Russian Navy.   For a while now, tankers and cargo ships heading to Syria would go “dark” on AIS after transiting the Suez Canal. Hardly any Russian warship regularly uses AIS, so any information on escorts is sketchy to say the least.

The following article provides some details on an escort carried out by the Russian Nav back in October 2020.  Very little information is available on other escorts undertaken since then, until now. This is how the escort was framed by the UK tabloid newspaper, the Daily Express: with its lurid far-fetched clickbait headline,  — WW3 stuff, hardly.

The reality is more mundane, with all likelihood elements of NATO SNMG2 keeping tabs on both the Russian Navy in the region and also Iranian shipping, but it is Israel that has more at stake in this matter, (more on this later).  The UK sent a patrol ship to the region recently as part of the NATO ‘Operation Sea Guardian’.  HMS Trent was last in Cyprus after having been off the coast of Port Said and also the Levant coast too. Add this, NATO SNMG2 ships were in the Syrian channel (between Cyprus and the Levant).

The Russian Navy had dropped a hint about escorting merchant ships back in October 2020, about ensuring “smooth passage of civilian ships.” The timing fits in with the article previously mentioned above.  In fact, the VMF carried out an exercise off Tartus “to monitor the situation at depth and on the surface, and to create a safe area for the passage of merchant ships.”  Certainly, it suggests that Russia was aware of ships being targeted by Israel back even.

Fast forward 6 months, the WSJ ran an article in March 2021, alleging a dozen of Israeli attacks on merchant shipping, (which I wrote an article about).

On 17 April Arabic Sputnik reported that a “tripartite joint operations room” would be established in the Mediterranean to ensure the safe arrival in Syria of oil and flour shipments as well as other goods to the Syrian ports.  This news came on the back of recent incidents with Iranian ships.  Several days later, there was a reported attack on an Iranian tanker moored off Baniyas.  Claims were made by officials that it was attacked by a drone, causing a large fire in which a Russian helicopter had to drop water to extinguish the fire.

This would have ruffled a few military feathers in Russia and Damascus, given the proximity to the Russian naval base at Tartus.  What with the deployment of air defense ashore and the deployment of the designated anti-saboteur ‘Grachanok’ class and the fast Raptor boats for port protection.  Even more, the Russian Navy has conducted exercises repelling an attack by saboteurs, (undersea and afloat), hinting at concern over covert operations. Similarly, the naval exercise in October 2020 was also about responding to a potential threat of SOF “group of swimmers” that could have been deployed from a submarine.

The Baniyas’ attack’ took place after another Iranian cargo ship off Yemen, the ‘Saviz’, was reportedly attacked by Israel in the Red Sea on 6 April. The ‘Saviz’ has been stationed in the southern Red Sea for several years and is reported to be an Iranian intelligence ship.  Reports of an Israeli submarine operating in the Red Sea were noted on social media and also featured in an article by H.I. Sutton.

Israel had once more stepped up its tit-for-tat attacks against Iran.

Snapshot of an escort

Image 1 Ivan Antonov. Source: author

A Russian ship was seen on AIS, about 25nm to the north of Port Said in the evening of the 4th of May, waiting.

AIS screenshot: Source: vessel finder.com

At the same time, a 231 m long Aframax Iranian tanker, ‘Sirvan Sabou’ was leaving the Suez Canal, entering the Mediterranean.

AIS screenshot

The AIS specifications matches to the  ‘Ivan Antonov’,  a Black Sea Fleet minesweeper forward deployed as part of the permanent naval squadron in the Mediterranean is based in Tartus, Syria.  Marine Traffic clearly shows the naval ship:

AIS screenshot: Marine Traffic

Interesting to note that it is a minesweeper that is providing an escort, but I doubt it is on its own though.  Until recently, the Russian Navy had a Project 22160 class large patrol ship ‘Dmitry Rogachev’ but it returned to the Black Sea at the beginning of April. There is the ‘Admiral Grigorovich’ frigate and also a Buyan-M missile ship part of the squadron.

[NB: HMS Trent which had been visible on AIS until its Cyprus port call has gone AIS dark since then].

Russian Navy escorts will help in circumventing the repugnant US and EU sanctions, since Syria is reliant on Iranian oil and wheat imports, thus effectively breaking the sanctions siege.   This is largely due to the fact the majority of Syria’s oil and gas resources as well the traditional breadbasket is located in the northeast, the area being under US-backed Kurdish control and out of reach of Damascus. To note that the US not only guards the oil infrastructure but also facilities the transfer of oil and wheat out of Syria via Iraq.

Middle East media reported that a convoy of three Iranian vessels has already arrived at Syria’s Baniyas under Russian naval escort in late April.  This was particularly noteworthy as the Suez Canal was temporarily blocked by the mega containership “Ever Given’, which caused a backlog of shipping, including much-needed oil imports for Syria. The Suez Canal blockage only serves to highlight even more the vulnerability and severe shortage of Syrian imports, and it stands to reason why the Russian Navy is escorting ships, to allow “smooth passage of civilian ships”.

According to social media information, Israeli defense sources claiming that the Russian Navy is also helping with the smuggling of weapons to Syria.  Israel has for a long time been monitoring and carrying out airstrikes to deny Syria armaments, that have been either flown in or transferred by land from Iraq.  Now it seems according to Israeli experts that there is a shift to the transportation on ships. Consequently, Israel is apparently vexed about this recent arrangement because targeting a ship under Russian Navy escort would incur hefty risks.  (Not that I see Israel unable to find another way or location to hamper such voyages, as hinted by the attack on the ‘Saviz’ in the Red Sea, or indeed infrastructure on land). Russian Navy presence in the Red Sea is limited to an intelligence (AGI) and a floating maintenance ship, (both called into Port Sudan recently), not something likely to undertake an escort role.

I think that there is a lot more behind the scenes to this, escorting Iranian ships is just one facet, barely visible, given the complicated and overall geopolitical context.  Although, it has become clear that a line has been drawn in not accepting the US and EU sanctions or Israeli actions in the Mediterranean.

The Russian naval escorts are another spanner thrown into the works by Russia as far the US and its allies in enforcing sanctions intended to deprive the Syrian state of a vital lifeline for the population.

Russian Navy To Guard Iranian Oil Supplies To Syria Under Strategic Agreement – Report

South Front

 17.04.2021 

A Russian Navy assault team from the Russian Federation ship Severromorsk land by helicopter on the deck of the Italian Ship San Marco, the NATO flag ship to Operation Ocean Shield, during a NATO-Russia counter piracy exercise in the Gulf of Aden.

Russia, Iran and Syria have established a joint operation room that would work to guarantee the security and stability of oil and wheat supplies to Syrian ports through the Mediterranean Sea, Sputnik reported on April 17.

According to the agency, a series of intensive meetings between Russian, Iranian and Syrian officials was held recently with the aim of breaking the siege imposed by the US and European Union on Syria.

“The room’s work is to provide multi-sided coordination to secure the arrival of oil supplies, in the first place, to Syrian ports,” Sputnik quoted sources familiar with the matter as saying.

Syria has been facing an unprecedented economic crisis as a result the sanctions imposed by the US and the EU. The country’s natural resources in the northeastern region are also under control of US proxies. Furthermore, ships heading to Syrian ports face sanctions as well as the threat of direct attacks on some occasions.

In the framework of the joint operations room, Russian Navy vessels will protect Iranian tankers heading to Syria until the end of this year.

Iranian tankers will gather in the Mediterranean and sail to Syria in one convoy escorted by the Russian Navy. Recently, this protocol was successfully used to guard four tankers heading to Syria.

According to Sputnik’s sources, other ships loaded with supplied, including food and chemicals for the pharmaceutical industry, will arrive in Syrian ports. Several wheat shipments from Russia will also be sent to Syria until next June.

“The recent tripartite coordination, which resulted in understandings that could be described as strategy, would secure most of the Syrian market’s needs for basic commodities and materials,” the sources said.

The operations room demonstrates honest commitment of Russia and Iran to Syria and the Syrian people. Meanwhile, the US and the EU continue to place political conditions to easy their collective sanctions on the country.

MORE ON THIS TOPIC:

• Military Situation In Syria On April 17, 2021 (Map Update)
• Saryat Ansar Abu Baker As-Siddiq Launched New Attack On Turkish Forces In Greater Idlib
• Daraa: Four Intelligence Officers, Former Rebels Targeted In Separate Attacks

A sea change in deployments

March 06, 2021

By Nat South for the Saker Blog

This short analysis outlines a recent small but subtle “sea change” in Russian naval deployments that took place recently.

Firstly, the list below outlines an abridged overview of the current elements underpinning Russian naval policies to date:

• The backbone of the Russian Navy lies in its multipronged capacity to field a range of ships, to support its littoral defence and also deploy primarily in the near sea zone.
• A noticeable shift towards “distributed lethality”, with smaller but more versatile combat ships, with smaller corvettes and patrol boats as part of the mix as well as destroyers and the vitally important submarine fleet.
• Continued development and deployment of (shipborne) long-range stand-off missiles, coupled with the advances in Russian missile technology.
• Ensuring a wide distribution of firepower and spreading out the risks to minimise big potential combat losses. [1]

These are some of the current and anticipated elements that are relevant to this article, (I’m not covering the submarine fleet aspect). Generally speaking, recent Russian naval developments can cover both power projection and sea control as well as sea denial capabilities closer to home.

A 2019 RAND report mentions that “the Black Sea has historically been the gateway to the most vulnerable part of Russia.” [2] Unsurprisingly, given the rise in ongoing geopolitical tensions, the sharp uptick in NATO activities over several years in the Black Sea region, the bulk of naval modernisation is centred on the Black Sea Fleet. Likewise, the Black Sea Fleet provide the main part of the renewed Eastern Mediterranean Russian naval presence.

With the gradual increase in commissioning into service of the newest generation of naval ships, the Russian navy will invariably exercise more, extend its activities in order to train and maintain the skills at the heart of the latest technological developments.

In tandem, Russian geopolitical leverage will be exercised and strengthened regionally, (from the Barents, Black Seas to the North West Pacific). Similarly, the status quo regarding post 2015 power projection capabilities in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Levant will be maintained. As mentioned in the article “Towards a ‘corvette-centric’ Russian navy”, [1] and in “Rocking the boat – Sudan”, [3] brief periods of power projection into the Indian Ocean will gradually evolve alongside the capability building of the Russian Navy.

The broadening of activities connected to the slow-paced ongoing modernisation programme of the Russian Navy is an obvious situation, yet this perspective remains conspicuously absent from the majority of the reports that are [and will] be relayed by MSM articles in NATO member states. By its very nature, a number of Russian Navy deployments each year are newly constructed ships that transit to their Black Sea homeports.

Overall, there is a broader deliberate narrative to reshape certain aspects of Russian military activities by presenting information in a pernicious way. What’s more, the MSM and experts unfailingly resort to using a combination of default buzzwords to promote a negative image of Russian naval activities, some examples include “hybrid threat”, “malign behaviour”, “provocation from Russia” and “hostile activities”, to name but a few. [More on this particular aspect in an upcoming article].

In short, this results in “news items” being packaged in a totally artificial and misguiding way to shape popular opinion. MSM articles of certain Russian naval activities are often slingshoted in batches, habitually with hysterical clickbait type headlines, thus rendering routine naval activities and innocuous transits, into something more belligerent.

Back in 2017, [1] I mentioned that once the new patrol ships, light frigates & corvettes came into service, this would enable the Russian Navy to redistribute mission-tasking orders widely and more evenly, which some Western ‘Atlantists” contrivedly bundle as being part of an “hybrid threat”. I also added that potentially, the new ships would give a window of opportunity for older ships to be refitted, without compromising overall fleet combat readiness & effectiveness. As it currently stands, naval shipbuilding is slowly gathering pace, mostly small quantities of small missile ships, corvettes and even fewer frigates.

Indeed, the growing use of smaller-sized warships dovetails into the rolling plans for modernising some of the Soviet-era stock of larger ships to maintain a partial blue-water capability, (Marshal Ustinov, Project 1144.2 guided-missile cruiser Admiral Nakhimov, or the Udaloy class Marshal Shaposhnikov…). In this way, the Russian Navy is managing to maximize and diversify their combat capability.

Yet, this situation is barely acknowledged by a whole assortment of Western pundits and typical MSM ignoramuses, as they are inclined to using ‘old’ disparaging clichés because the Russian Navy ‘still’ uses old Soviet era ships.

I stated back in February 2020,[4], that the remaining current Cold War era destroyers and frigate that visited the Indian Ocean region will gradually fade away, to be replaced by a smaller fleet of modern frigates & corvettes.  Well, that scenario has in fact happened, much sooner than I had anticipated. Additionally, I need to add large patrol ships into the equation as well as corvettes and frigates. Why is this of interest? The arrival of the smaller classes of warships equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles in the Black Sea Fleet and the Caspian Sea Flotilla, has meant an increase in naval combat power, despite a limited range of action, (compared to the blue-water ships).

Project 22800 missile corvettes,

*Project 21631 missile corvettes.

*and project 22160 small missile ships

(*as well as the Project 11661K light frigate).

* All have operated outside Russia’s contiguous maritime areas in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Several of the Russian ships and submarines forward deployed to the Mediterranean carried out strikes against militants in Syria using Kalibr cruise missiles.

Something of particular interest took place recently, something that marks a milestone for the Russian Navy. Several Russian naval ships took part in exercises in the Arabian Sea this month:

1. “AMAN 2021” – (Pakistani-led multinational exercise) [5].
2. “Marine Security Belt”, (binational exercise with Iran). [6].

Participating in these exercises were the:

• Admiral Grigorovich (a),

(Project 11356Р/М class frigate commissioned in 2016).

• Dmitry Rogachev (a),

(22160-class large patrol ship class commissioned in 2019).

• Stoiky (b),

(Project 20380 class corvette commissioned in 2014).

The ‘Stoiky’ was accompanied by an oiler ‘Kola’ and a tug, ‘Yakov Grebelsky’. The Admiral Grigorovich was in company with the Dmitry Rogachev. In the meantime, the ‘Admiral Kasatonov’, was sailing around the Mediterranean, calling into Algeria, Greece and Egypt.

Details of type and class aside, what do you notice about these warships? ‘newbies’, all commissioned since 2014. That itself might not be amazing breaking news, but certainly, has slightly changed how things stand and shows that the Russian is reasserting a wider but momentary naval footprint with a new generation of warships.

What happened in the Arabian Sea symbolically opens a new chapter which is contrary to the negative comments made by ‘Atlantists’ on the Russian Navy:

1. being dependent on deploying Soviet era warships,
2. carrying out infrequent blue-water deployments with such ships.

Interestingly, the exercises involved three warships instead of the just the one being deployed, doing the naval diplomacy rounds. Although this is quite insignificant issue compared to what else is going on in the world, it does reflect a change in the outlook presented by the Russian Navy.

The older classes of ships that make long-distance deployments, were not present this year in the region. The category of ships I refer to include:

• ‘Vice-Admiral Kulakov’,

(Udaloy class, commissioned 1981, modernised 2010),

• ‘Admiral Vinogradrov’, (commissioned 1988),
• ‘Admiral Tributs,’ (commissioned 1985) &
• ‘Severomorsk’, (commissioned 1987).

All of which were and are the backbone of long-distance naval deployments for several decades until last year, particularly in the Mediterranean Sea and Indian Ocean, as outlined in the article “Russian naval presence in Indian Ocean” [4]. I haven’t included in the list the ‘Yaroslav Mudry, (Neustrashimyy-class frigate) as it was commissioned in 2009.

The Russian Navy is consistent in the manner of deploying ships on long-distance voyages further afield, with usually one combat ship with one or two support ships (oiler and/or ocean-going tug). This pattern is certainly the case for bilateral exercises or naval diplomacy port calls. The exception to this is the ‘Dmitry Rogachev’, a patrol ship [7], that went with the ‘Admiral Grigorovich’. That was an eye opener to see a Project 22160 arrive in the Arabian Sea. Project 22160 ships are designed primarily for service in green-water area, as such as are not necessarily fitted to carry out long-distance deployments. Nonetheless, they have a good endurance of 60 days and a cruising range of 6,000NM.

Last year, the Russian Navy carried out a 2-month trial in the Arctic, with the Vasily Bykov, (Project 22160), as a testbed for the use of container modules and other auxiliary equipment in harsh conditions. These tests will eventually enable this class of ships to carry upgraded and bespoke armaments depending on the type of mission. Container-based modules can include dedicated systems & weapons for ASW and also Kalibr cruise missiles.

Back in 2017, the Baltic Fleet based corvettes, ‘Boykiy’ and ‘Soobrazitelniy’, (Project 20380), considered as medium-tonnage-size green-water ships, (“close maritime zone” operations), undertook a long-distance deployment, (20,000NM all in all), covering the Atlantic Ocean, Mediterranean and also the Indian Ocean. [8]

It would be interesting to see if a Karakurt (project 22800) small-missile ship goes to the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean in the near future. Although this might be not realistic, given its integral role, operating in the “close maritime zone” or the “near abroad”, under the umbrella of onshore defence systems. Nonetheless, it is theoretical possible for such a vessel to be forward deployed from Tartus on a flag waving mission. Importantly, not only would it highlight a greater versatility in deployment but would underscore the approach taken to having a wider distribution of firepower that spans across the green-water / blue-water operational distinction.

A gradual shift in using more often low-tonnage but more versatile combat ships, along with some medium-size tonnage is becoming more noticeable recently, markedly so than in February 2021. Equally, the Russian Navy green-water capability is extending farther from just being in the “close maritime zone”. The low and medium-tonnage sized ships have taken on the duties previously carried out by larger sized Soviet era ships.

Links

[1] Towards a ‘corvette-centric’ Russian navy

http://thesaker.is/part-2-towards-a-corvette-centric-russian-navy/

[2] https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/AD1096677.pdf

[3] https://thesaker.is/rocking-the-boat-sudan/

[4] http://thesaker.is/russian-naval-presence-in-indian-ocean/

[5] https://www.rt.com/russia/515292-navy-pakistan-aman-drills-nato/

[6] https://tass.com/defense/1256465

[7] https://tass.com/defense/1245415

[8] https://tass.com/defense/981111

Foolish FONOPs

December 01, 2020

By Nat South for the Saker Blog

A new tiny twist in U.S. naval activities, albeit one that raises some eyebrows happened last week due to its location. The latest in “freedom of navigation operation”, aka ‘FONOP’ carried out by the U.S. Navy took place in Peter the Great Bay (Zaliv Petra Velikogo), near to Vladivostok in the Far East of Russia. The fact that Washington cherrypicked the location might be at first sight, insignificant and also petty considering the context, but there’s more to this given the timing and ongoing pinprick but widely applied pressure applied to Russia on many fronts these days, (military, political, trade and diplomatic).

The legal background and historical details for the Peter the Great Bay incident has been explained in the article “Driving Russia further into China’s arms”, which lays out the legal issues and interpretations of baselines, internal, territorial and historic waters.

The bottom line is that naval vessels do have a right to navigate within other countries’ 12 nautical mile territorial limit, if it is under the rule of “innocent passage”, (see Article 19 of UNCLOS), by transiting in a “continuous and expeditious” manner that is not “prejudicial to the peace, good order or security of the coastal state”. There are specific activities that are not permitted including surveillance and flying shipborne aircraft.

Naval and air incursions have been going on for years and also back in the Soviet era, famously highlighted by the Black Sea ‘bumping’ incidents in 1986 and 1988, (also due to UNCLOS). The Black Sea remains one of the vital pressure points to this day, yet the Far East not so until December 2018, when the first post-Cold War FONOP in the area was carried out by the USS ‘McCampbell’.

The notion and implementation of FONOPs, started in 1979, are uniquely peculiar to the U.S. and symptomatic of Washington’s persistent mindset of “needing to poke their noses” where and when it suits them to prove all too often counterproductive point. Following the Peter the Great Bay incident, the U.S. Pacific Fleet stated that the “United States will never bow in intimidation or be coerced into accepting illegitimate maritime claims, such as those made by the Russian Federation.”

The concept of FONOPs also stands sharply at odds with Washington’s stance on UNCLOS, as the Senate has not ratified it. Nevertheless, it is worth pointing out that Washington has accepted UNCLOS as binding international law. Back in 2015, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Joe Dunford, stated: “We undermine our leverage by not signing up to the same rule book by which we are asking other countries to accept.” Except that the U.S. would be bound by all the articles of UNCLOS and not stay in a position of cherry-picking just a selection that suits its narrow set of interests. Quite telling, the reasons as to why the U.S. shouldn’t ratify UNCLOS, as laid out in this Heritage Foundation document, namely the threat of lawsuits and being made accountable and abide by the decisions of the International Seabed Authority. This excerpt from another article speaks volumes about the mindset at work: “The U.S. can best protect its rights by maintaining a strong U.S. Navy, not by acceding to the convention.”

Cynically, the very fact that the U.S. hasn’t ratified it, means that Washington interprets UNCLOS with its usual ‘exceptionalism’ outlook and takes it upon itself to be the world’s leading proponent of upholding “freedom of navigation”; this only goes one way and it is principally the U.S. Navy that applies this concept, usually in the form of a destroyer. Typically, the style of Washington is to send in cruise missile carrying “505 feet of American fighting steel” over differences of legal views over claims over sea areas and reiterate pedantic enforcement of “innocent passage” in selected localities. The U.S. Coast Guard has been involved in FONOPs too, but in a very restricted capacity and more recently (and unusually so) one in the South China Sea.

The rationale for FONOPs is based uniquely on Washington’s interpretation of “excessive claims” made by other states that it finds unacceptable, “to protest other states’ excessive maritime claims and encourage those states to harmonize their claims with U.S. interpretations of international law” (Odell 2019) as well as maintain customary international law. There are two aspects to note, a. “innocent passage” and “excessive maritime claims” regarding territorial waters, since there is a fine line between these two statements. I am not at this stage going to go into the specifics and gritty details of the issues of either customary international law or UNCLOS, other to say it is complex and invariably there are conflicting views over interpretation. The crux of the legal matter is that the U.S. maintains the belief that if challenges to customary international law are not carried out, then this over time ultimately legitimatise them by setting a negative precedent. If this multiplied over and over worldwide, this ultimately erodes U.S. supremacy, (for an insight in this – read the top paragraph of page 3 of this document). In short, it sounds really immature and pathetic to nit-pick over where the baseline for Zaliv Petra Velikogo, yet this precisely what Washington did last week, because do not doing so erodes their maritime rights.

There are several elements that underpin a FONOP, legal, diplomatic and ultimately the operational naval stage. Originally, ‘operational’ FONOPs were designed as the next step to supplement diplomatic efforts to challenge excessive claims or when these efforts have proven fruitless. An example of this, the USCG did a FONOP 35 years ago in the North Western Passage, much to the annoyance of Canada.

As Odell stated, “the United States does not conduct FONOPs vis-à-vis all excessive maritime claims everywhere in the world every year”. The pattern, tempo and nature of ‘operational’ FONOPs has principally focussed on those countries who happen not to agree with the “rules-based liberal international order”, a concept exclusively promoted by Washington to uphold its global primacy. While other countries who take umbrage at what they perceive as excessive claims, they go to the ITLOS to try to settle the matter, the U.S. sends in the navy. What does that say?

The mantra often trotted out on these occasions by the U.S. Navy is that it “operates in close coordination with allies and partners who share our commitment to uphold a free and open international order that promotes security and prosperity.” In other words, only security and prosperity that serves first and foremost U.S. interests, namely via a rolled out globalised Monroe Doctrine. The FONOP concept has morphed into something wider -” to uphold security and prosperity interests”, not quite the same category as “challenging excessive maritime claims” or conducting “innocent passage” transits.

It is interesting to see that there is barely lukewarm support for FONOPs from those “allies and partners”, despite Washington’s active encouragement. In fact, they are not on the same page in terms of carrying out U.S. style FONOPs, especially in the South China Sea. Since a few states have competing interests and claims as well as strong trade relations themselves in the region, as such they aren’t keen on jumping on that particular kind of boat so to speak, (South Korea and Japan for instance are a case in point). U.S. FONOPs have been frequently carried out in the South China Sea for over a decade. Quite tellingly, Chinese PLA(N) ships have themselves sailed through U.S. waters back in 2015 to and from the Bering Sea and Washington merely twitched back then.

So the much vaunted short lived unilateral acts conducted by the U.S. can also be flipped, as the saying goes, it takes two to tango, so there is little that the U.S. could do if the PLA(N) (again) or let’s say even the Russian Navy decides to apply Article 19 “innocent passage” transit off continental U.S, the Aleutian Islands, Puerto Rico or Hawaii.

Another important pressure point is the Arctic, specifically the Northern Sea Route (NSR). Last year, I outlined the situation and background to FONOPs in the Arctic, as a result of the French Navy’s BSAH ‘Rhône’ transit from Norway to Canada via the NSR. Of interest to note that the Rhône’s voyage was essentially a very low key FONOP in nature, but without resorting to either using a combat ship or making public statements to the effect. Furthermore, I mentioned at the time that U.S. has started to take incremental steps towards a fully-fledged FONOP in the Arctic region.

As I write this, the U.S. had indeed taken further steps this year to carry out limited operations in the Barents Sea. In May, 4 US Navy ships and a UK frigate went to the Barents Sea, the first time in the area since the 1980s. On this occasion the Northern Fleet was notified, however this was not the case in September. In total, the US Navy went to the Barents: Sea 3 times in 2020 alone (2). The latest reason? – “This Barents Sea mission marks a significant milestone, clearly demonstrating our dynamic ability to operate anywhere in the world,” said Cmdr. John D. John, Ross’ commanding officer.

The U.S. isn’t actually trying to preserve UNCLOS for all, but in reality, trying to reimpose and expand a US‐led regional status quo, whether in the Barents or the South China Sea. It can thus be considered that FONOPs are little more than a barely concealed tool for keeping and deploying the U.S. Navy Fleets globally to obscure far flung places in order to make their combat capability posturing and presence known. If the U.S. had wanted to prove a point strictly regarding the principle of freedom of navigation, it would have been more tactful to send non-combat ships instead like the French apparently did. To certain extent, this can be summed up by the words of the commandant of the USCG, Adm Schultz, who said. “I think in the Arctic right now, if we did something with the Navy, it’s more about just showing our ability to project capability up there.”

Certainly, the U.S. Navy has a knack in conducting FONOPs near to the Russian Navy Fleets’ homeports or significant Chinese military installations. The Peter the Great Bay incident is no exception, given Vladivostok and the nearby new mega shipyard, ‘Bolshoy Kamen’, which just happens to be carrying out nuclear submarine upgrades. Hence the tone set recently by Moscow in response to the incident may be an indicator: “Such muscle flexing is apparently meant to exacerbate the situation, which once again proves that at the current historical stage the United States is opting to use force methods to advocate own foreign policy interests.”

So foolishly, the U.S. rattles the FONOP cage once more, with lofty pronouncements made once more, and more bloviating about freedom and security. What does this actually achieve other than more pushbacks and toughening of stances from Russia in this instance?

FONOPs are not a constructive diplomatic tool or even add value since they trigger more tensions and are also a cost to the military, (paradoxically even the U.S. ‘rules-based partners’ such as Canada and Australia see it that way too). Although, the aim of FONOPs is to shape the U.S.’s desired strategic effects and improve partnerships, they ultimately fail to do this is any consistent or meaningful manner of asserting maritime rights. Instead, FONOPs are seen as a crude instrument of U.S. military primacy, designed to send an antagonistic signal of power projection.

1. Odell, Rachel, How Strategic Norm-Shaping Undergirds America’s Command of the Commons (August 31, 2019). MIT Political Science Department Research Paper No. 2019-23,
2. May: Arleigh Burke-class Aegis destroyers USS Donald Cook, Porter and Roosevelt + HMS Kent; September: USS Ross + HMS Sutherland + HNoMS Thor Heyerdahl. October: USS Ross again).

Russian Navy showcases its military might in large-scale drills off Syrian coast: video

Source

News Desk -2020-07-250

BEIRUT, LEBANON (9:50 A.M.) – The Russian Navy carried out large-scale drills off the coast of Syria’s Tartous Governorate this week, showcasing their military capabilities in the eastern Mediterranean region amid increased tensions between several nations.

According to Sputnik Arabic, the Syrian coastal region witnessed the qualitative training of the Russian Navy, as they used their warships, military choppers and combat aircraft to simulate the effectiveness of their forces in battle.

Sputnik filmed the naval drills from the coastal governorate of Tartous this week, which is where the Russian Navy is currently based in the eastern Mediterranean.

The publication reported the use of the advanced Raptor waterboats, which are classified among the fastest military boats in the Russian fleet, as they are able to sail at speeds of up to 50 knots, and to carry out various missions in the coast guard teams such as surveillance, and guard missions and rescue missions.

In addition to the training of the Raptor, large marine vessels, including the “Krasnodar” submarine and a missile cruiser, also took part in the military drills.

These Russian naval exercises come at a time of increased friction in the eastern Mediterranean, as Turkey’s role in Libya and their offshore drilling agitates Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece.