Two Years After the Start of the SMO, the West is Totally Paralyzed

February 24, 2024

Pepe Escobar

February 24, 2022 was the day that changed 21^st century geopolitics forever, Pepe Escobar writes.

Contact us: info@strategic-culture.su

Exactly two years ago this Saturday, on February 24, 2022, Vladimir Putin announced the launching – and described the objectives – of a Special Military Operation (SMO) in Ukraine. That was the inevitable follow-up to what happened three days before, on February 21 – exactly 8 years after Maidan 2014 in Kiev – when Putin officially recognized the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Lugansk.

During this – pregnant with meaning – short space of only three days, everyone expected that the Russian Armed Forces would intervene, militarily, to end the massive bombing and shelling that had been going on for three weeks across the frontline – which even forced the Kremlin to evacuate populations at risk to Russia. Russian intel had conclusive proof that the NATO-backed Kiev forces were ready to execute an ethnic cleansing of Russophone Donbass.

February 24, 2022 was the day that changed 21^st century geopolitics forever, in several complex ways. Above all, it marked the beginning of a vicious, all-out confrontation, “military-technical” as the Russians call it, between the Empire of Chaos, Lies and Plunder, its easily pliable NATOstan vassals, and Russia – with Ukraine as the battleground.

There is hardly any question Putin had calculated, before and during these three fateful days, that his decisions would unleash the unbounded fury of the collective West – complete with a tsunami of sanctions.

Ay, there’s the rub; it’s all about Sovereignty. And a true sovereign power simply cannot live under permanent threats. It’s even feasible that Putin had wanted (italics mine) Russia to get sanctioned to death. After all, Russia is so naturally wealthy that without a serious challenge from abroad, the temptation is enormous to live off its rents while importing what it could easily produce.

Exceptionalists always gloated that Russia is “a gas station with nuclear weapons”. That’s ridiculous. Oil and gas, in Russia, account for roughly 15% of GDP, 30% of the government budget, and 45% of exports. Oil and gas add power to the Russian economy – not a drag. Putin shaking Russia’s complacency generated a gas station producing everything it needs, complete with unrivalled nuclear and hypersonic weapons. Beat that.

Ukraine has “never been less than a nation”

Xavier Moreau is a French politico-strategic analyst based in Russia for 24 years now. Graduated from the prestigious Saint-Cyr military academy and with a Sorbonne diploma, he hosts two shows on RT France.

His latest book, Ukraine: Pourquoi La Russie a Gagné (“Ukraine: Why Russia has Won”), just out, is an essential manual for European audiences on the realities of the war, not those childish fantasies concocted across the NATOstan sphere by instant “experts” with less than zero combined arms military experience.

Moreau makes it very clear what every impartial, realist analyst was aware of from the beginning: the devastating Russian military superiority, which would condition the endgame. The problem, still, is how this endgame – “demilitarization” and “denazification” of Ukraine, as established by Moscow – will be achieved.

What is already clear is that “demilitarization”, of Ukraine and NATO, is a howling success that no new wunderwaffen – like F-16s – will be able to change.

Moreau perfectly understands how Ukraine, nearly 10 years after Maidan, is not a nation; “and has never been less than a nation”. It’s a territory where populations that everything separates are jumbled up. Moreover, it has been a – “grotesque” – failed state ever since its independence. Moreau spends several highly entertaining pages going through the corruption grotesquerie in Ukraine, under a regime that “gets its ideological references simultaneously via admirers of Stepan Bandera and Lady Gaga.”

None of the above, of course, is reported by oligarch-controlled European mainstream media.

Watch out for Deng Xiao Putin

The book offers an extremely helpful analysis of those deranged Polish elites who bear “a heavy responsibility in the strategic catastrophe that awaits Washington and Brussels in Ukraine”. The Poles actually believed that Russia would crumble from the inside, complete with a color revolution against Putin. That barely qualifies as Brzezinski on crack.

Moreau shows how 2022 was the year when NATOstan, especially the Anglo-Saxons – historically racist Russophobes –   were self-convinced thar Russia would fold because it is a “poor power”. Obviously, none of these luminaries understood how Putin strengthened the Russian economy very much like Deng Xiaoping on the Chinese economy. This “self-intoxication”, as Moreau qualifies it, did wonders for the Kremlin.

By now it’s clear even for the deaf, dumb, and blind that the destruction of the European economy has been a massive tactic, historic victory for the Hegemon – as much as the blitzkrieg against the Russian economy has been an abysmal failure.

All of the above brings us to the meeting of G20 Foreign Ministers this week in Rio. That was not exactly a breakthrough. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made it very clear that the collective West at the G20 tried by all means to “Ukrainize” the agenda – with less than zero success. They were outnumbered and counterpunched by BRICS and Global South members.

At his press conference, Lavrov could not be more stark on the prospects of the war of the collective West against Russia. These are the highlights:

• Western countries categorically do not want serious dialogue on Ukraine.
• There were no serious proposals from the United States to begin contacts with the Russian Federation on strategic stability; trust cannot be restored now while Russia is declared an enemy.
• There were no contacts on the sidelines of the G20 with either Blinken or the British Foreign Secretary.
• The Russian Federation will respond to new Western sanctions with practical actions that relate to the self-sufficient development of the Russian economy.
• If Europe tries to restore ties with the Russian Federation, making it dependent on their whims, then such contacts are not needed.

In a nutshell – diplomatically: you are irrelevant, and we don’t care.

That was complementing Lavrov’s intervention during the summit, which defined once again a clear, auspicious path towards multipolarity. Here are the highlights:

• The forming of a fair multipolar world order without a definite center and periphery has become much more intensive in the past few years. Asian, African and Latin American countries are becoming important parts of the global economy. Not infrequently, they are setting the tone and the dynamics.
• Many Western economies, especially in Europe, are actually stagnating against this background. These statistics are from Western-supervised institutions – the IMF, the World Bank and the OECD.
• These institutions are becoming relics from the past. Western domination is already affecting their ability to meet the requirements of the times. Meanwhile, it is perfectly obvious today that the current problems of humanity can only be resolved through a concerted effort and with due consideration for the interests of the Global South and, generally, all global economic realities.
• Institutions like the IMF, the World Bank, the EBRD, and the EIB are prioritizing Kiev’s military and other needs. The West allocated over $250 billion to tide over its underling thus creating funding shortages in other parts of the world. Ukraine is taking up the bulk of the funds, relegating Africa and other regions of the Global South to rationing.
• Countries that have discredited themselves by using unlawful acts ranging from unilateral sanctions and the seizure of sovereign assets and private property to blockades, embargoes, and discrimination against economic operators based on nationality to settle scores with their geopolitical opponents cannot be considered guarantors of financial stability.
• Without a doubt, new institutions that focus on consensus and mutual benefit are needed to democratize the global economic governance system. Today, we are seeing positive dynamics for strengthening various alliances, including BRICS, the SCO, ASEAN, the African Union, LAS, CELAC, and the EAEU.
• This year, Russia chairs BRICS, which saw several new members join it. We will do our best to reinforce the potential of this association and its ties with the G20.
• Considering that 6 out of 15 UN Security Council members represent the Western bloc, we will support the expansion of this body solely through the accession of countries from Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

Call it the real state of things, geopolitically, two years after the start of the SMO.

The Axis of Asymmetry takes on the ‘rules-based order’

FEB 23, 2024

Photo Credit: The Cradle

World War III is here, playing out asymmetrically in military, financial, and institutional battlefields, and the fight is an existential one. The western Hegemon, in truth, is at war against international law, and only ‘kinetic military action’ can bring it to heel.

Pepe Escobar

The Axis of Asymmetry is in full swing. These are the state and non-state actors employing asymmetrical moves on the global chessboard to sideline the US-led western rules-based order. And its vanguard is the Yemeni resistance movement Ansarallah. 

Ansarallah is absolutely relentless. They have downeda $30 million MQ-9 Reaper drone with just a $10k indigenous missile.

They are the first in the Global South ever to use anti-ship ballistic missiles against Israel-bound and/or -protecting commercial and US Navy ships. 

For all practical purposes, Ansarallah is at war with no less than the US Navy.

Ansarallah has captured one of the US Navy’s ultra-sophisticated autonomous underwater vehicles (AUV), the $1.3 million Remus 600, a torpedo-shaped underwater drone able to carry a massive payload of sensors. 

Next stop: reverse engineering in Iran? The Global South eagerly awaits, ready to pay in currencies bypassing the US dollar. 

All of the above – a maritime 21st-century remix of the Ho Chi Minh trail during the Vietnam War – spells out that the Hegemon may not even qualify as a paper tiger, but rather as a paper leech.

Lula tells it as the Global South sees it 

Into the Big Picture – linked to the relentless ongoing genocide perpetrated by Israel in Gaza – steps a true leader of the Global South, Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. 

Lula spoke in the name of Brazil, Latin America, Africa, BRICS 10, and the overwhelming majority of the Global South when he cut to the chase and defined the Gaza tragedy for what it is: a genocide. No wonder the Zionist tentacles across the Global North – plus its Global South vassals – went bonkers. 

The genocidals in Tel Aviv declared Lula as persona non grata in Israel. Yet Lula did not assassinate 29,000+ Palestinians – the overwhelming majority of whom were women and children.

History will be unforgiving: it’s the genocidals that will eventually be judged as personae non grata to all of humanity.

What Lula said represented BRICS 10 in action: this was obviously cleared before with Moscow, Beijing, Tehran, and, of course, the African Union. Lula spoke in Addis Ababa, and Ethiopia is now a BRICS 10 member.

The Brazilian president was extremely smart in timing his Gaza fact-check to be on the table during the G20 meeting of Foreign Ministers in Rio. Way beyond BRICS 10, what’s happening in Gaza is a consensus among the non-Western G20 partners – who are actually a majority. No one, though, should expect any serious follow-up inside a divided G20. The heart of the matter remains in the facts on the ground. 

Yemen’s fight for “our people” in Gaza is a matter of humanistic, moral, and religious solidarity – these are foundational tenets of the rising eastern “civilizational” powers, both domestically and in international affairs. This convergence of principles has now created a direct link – extrapolating to the moral and spiritual spheres – between the Axis of Resistance in West Asia and the Slavic Axis of Resistance in Donbass. 

Extreme attention should be paid to the timescale. The Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) forces and Russia have spent two hard-fought years in Novorossiya just to arrive at the stage where it becomes clear – based on the battlefield and cumulative facts on the ground – that “negotiations” mean only the terms of Kiev’s surrender.

In contrast, the job of the Axis of Resistance in West Asia has not even started. It’s fair to argue that its strength and full sovereign involvement have not been deployed yet (think Hezbollah and Iran). 

Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, with his proverbial subtlety, has hinted there’s, in fact, nothing to negotiate on Palestine. And if there would be a return to any borders, these would be the 1948 borders. The Axis of Resistance understands that the whole Zionist Project is unlawful and immoral. But the question remains how to throw it, in practice, into the dustbin of History?

Possible – avowedly optimistic – scenarios ahead would include Hezbollah taking possession of the Galilee as a step toward the eventual retaking of the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Yet the fact remains that even a united Palestine does not have the military capability to reconquer stolen Palestinian lands. 

So the questions posed by the overwhelming majority of the Global South that stands with Lula may be: Who else, apart from Ansarallah, Hezbollah, Hashd al-Shaabi, will join the Axis of Asymmetry in the fight for Palestine? Who would be willing to come to the Holy Land and die? (After all, in Donbass, it’s only Russians and Russophones who are dying for historically Russian lands)

And that brings us to the way towards the endgame: only a West Asian Special Military Operation (SMO), to the bitter end, will settle the Palestinian tragedy. A translation of what happens across the Slavic Axis of Resistance: “Those who refuse to negotiate with Lavrov, deal with Shoigu.”

The menu, the table, and the guests

That out-of-his-depth closet neocon, Secretary of State Tony Blinken, let the cat out of the bag when he actually defined his much cherished “rules-based international order”: “If you’re not on the table, you are on the menu.”

Following his own hegemonic logic, it’s clear that Russia and the US/NATO are on the table while Ukraine is on the menu. What about the Red Sea? The Houthis defending Palestine against US–UK–Israel are clearly on the table, while Western vassals supporting Israel in a maritime way are clearly on the menu. 

And that’s the problem: the Hegemon – or, in Chinese scholarly terminology, “the crusaders” – have lost the power to place the name cards on the table. The main reason for this authority collapse is the build-up of serious international meetings sponsored by the Russia–China strategic partnership during the past two years since the start of the SMO. It’s all about sequential planning, with long-term targets clearly outlined. 

Only civilizational states can do that – not plutocratic neoliberal casinos.   

Negotiating with the Hegemon is impossible because the Hegemon itself prevents negotiations (see the serial blocking of ceasefire resolutions at the UN). Additionally, the Hegemon excels in instrumentalizing its client elites across the Global South via threats or kompromat: see the hysterical reaction of Brazilian mainstream media to Lula’s verdict on Gaza. 

What Russia is showing the Global South, two years after the start of the SMO, is that the only path to teach a lesson to the Hegemon has to be kinetic, or “military-technical.”

The problem is no nation-state can compare to nuclear/hypersonic/military superpower Russia, in which 7.5 percent of the government’s budget is dedicated to military production. Russia is and will remain on a permanent war footing until Hegemon’s elites come to their senses – and that may never happen.

Meanwhile, West Asia’s Axis of Resistance is watching and learning, day after day. It’s always crucial to keep in mind that for all the resistance movements across the Global South – and that also includes, for instance, West Africans against French neo-colonialism – the geopolitical fault lines could not be starker.

It’s a matter of the collective West versus Islam; the collective West versus Russia; and sooner rather than later, a substantial part of the West, even reluctantly, versus China.

The fact is we are already immersed in a World War that is both existential and civilizational. As we stand at the crossroads, there is a bifurcation: either escalation towards overt “kinetic military action,” or a multiplication of Hybrid Wars across several latitudes. 

So it’s up to the Axis of Asymmetry, cool, calm, and collected, to forge the underground corridors, passages, and trails capable of undermining and subverting the US-led, unipolar, rules-based international order. 

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of The Cradle.

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War of Economic Corridors: the India-Mideast-Europe ploy

SEP 25, 2023

Photo Credit: The Cradle

The India-Middle East-Europe transportation corridor may be the talk of the town, but it will likely go the way of the last three Asia-to-Europe connectivity projects touted by the west – to the dustbin. Here’s why.

Pepe Escobar

The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is a massive public diplomacy op launched at the recent G20 summit in New Delhi, complete with a memorandum of understanding signed on 9 September. 

Players include the US, India, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and the EU, with a special role for the latter’s top three powers Germany, France, and Italy. It’s a multimodal railway project, coupled with trans-shipments and with ancillary digital and electricity roads extending to Jordan and Israel. 

If this walks and talks like the collective west’s very late response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched 10 years ago and celebrating a Belt and Road Forum in Beijing next month, that’s because it is. And yes, it is, above all, yet another American project to bypass China, to be claimed for crude electoral purposes as a meager foreign policy “success.”  

No one among the Global Majority remembers that the Americans came up with their own Silk Road plan way back in 2010. The concept came from the State Department’s Kurt Campbell and was sold by then-Secretary Hillary Clinton as her idea. History is implacable, it came down to nought.  

And no one among the Global Majority remembers the New Silk Road plan peddled by Poland, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Georgia in the early 2010s, complete with four troublesome trans-shipments in the Black Sea and the Caspian. History is implacable, this too came down to nought.   

In fact, very few among the Global Majority remember the $40 trillion US-sponsored Build Back Better World (BBBW, or B3W) global plan rolled out with great fanfare just two summers ago, focusing on “climate, health and health security, digital technology, and gender equity and equality.” 

A year later, at a G7 meeting, B3W had already shrunk to a $600 billion infrastructure-and-investment project. Of course, nothing was built. History really is implacable, it came down to nought. 

The same fate awaits IMEC, for a number of very specific reasons.

Map of The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC)

Pivoting to a black void 

The whole IMEC rationale rests on what writer and former Ambassador M.K. Bhadrakumar deliciously described as “conjuring up the Abraham Accords by the incantation of a Saudi-Israeli tango.”

This tango is Dead On Arrival; even the ghost of Piazzolla can’t revive it. For starters, one of the principals – Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman – has made it clear that Riyadh’s priorities are a new, energized Chinese-brokered relationship with Iran, with Turkiye, and with Syria after its return to the Arab League. 

Moreover, both Riyadh and its Emirati IMEC partner share immense trade, commerce, and energy interests with China, so they’re not going to do anything to upset Beijing.

At face value, IMEC proposes a joint drive by G7 and BRICS 11 nations. That’s the western method of seducing eternally-hedging India under Modi and US-allied Saudi Arabia and the UAE to its agenda. 

Its real intention, however, is not only to undermine BRI, but also the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INTSC), in which India is a major player alongside Russia and Iran.  

The game is quite crude and really quite obvious: a transportation corridor conceived to bypass the top three vectors of real Eurasia integration – and BRICS members China, Russia, and Iran – by dangling an enticing Divide and Rule carrot that promises Things That Cannot Be Delivered. 

The American neoliberal obsession at this stage of the New Great Game is, as always, all about Israel. Their goal is to make Haifa port viable and turn it into a key transportation hub between West Asia and Europe. Everything else is subordinated to this Israeli imperative. 

IMEC, in principle, will transit across West Asia to link India to Eastern and Western Europe – selling the fiction that India is a Global Pivot state and a Convergence of Civilizations. 

Nonsense. While India’s great dream is to become a pivot state, its best shot would be via the already up-and-running INTSC, which could open markets to New Delhi from Central Asia to the Caucasus. Otherwise, as a Global Pivot state, Russia is way ahead of India diplomatically, and China is way ahead in trade and connectivity. 

Comparisons between IMEC and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) are futile. IMEC is a joke compared to this BRI flagship project: the $57.7 billion plan to build a railway over 3,000 km long linking Kashgar in Xinjiang to Gwadar in the Arabian Sea, which will connect to other overland BRI corridors heading toward Iran and Turkiye. 

This is a matter of national security for China. So bets can be made that the leadership in Beijing will have some discreet and serious conversations with the current fifth-columnists in power in Islamabad, before or during the Belt and Road Forum, to remind them of the relevant geostrategic, geoeconomic, and investment Facts.

So, what’s left for Indian trade in all of this? Not much. They already use the Suez Canal, a direct, tested route. There’s no incentive to even start contemplating being stuck in black voids across the vast desert expanses surrounding the Persian Gulf. 

One glaring problem, for example, is that almost 1,100 km of tracks are “missing” from the railway from Fujairah in the UAE to Haifa, 745 km “missing” from Jebel Ali in Dubai to Haifa, and 630 km “missing” from the railway from Abu Dhabi to Haifa. 

When all the missing links are added up, there’s over 3,000 km of railway still to be built. The Chinese, of course, can do this for breakfast and on a dime, but they are not part of this game. And there’s no evidence the IMEC gang plans to invite them. 

All eyes on Syunik 

In the War of Transportation Corridors charted in detail for The Cradle in June 2022, it becomes clear that intentions rarely meet reality. These grand projects are all about logistics, logistics, logistics – of course, intertwined with the three other key pillars: energy and energy resources, labor and manufacturing, and market/trade rules. 

Let’s examine a Central Asian example. Russia and three Central Asian “stans” – Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan – are launching a multimodal Southern Transportation Corridor which will bypass Kazakhstan. 

Why? After all, Kazakhstan, alongside Russia, is a key member of both the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). 

The reason is because this new corridor solves two key problems for Russia that arose with the west’s sanctions hysteria. It bypasses the Kazakh border, where everything going to Russia is scrutinized in excruciating detail. And a significant part of the cargo may now be transferred to the Russian port of Astrakhan in the Caspian. 

So Astana, which under western pressure has played a risky hedging game on Russia, may end up losing the status of a full-fledged transport hub in Central Asia and the Caspian Sea region. Kazakhstan is also part of BRI; the Chinese are already very much interested in the potential of this new corridor.    

In the Caucasus, the story is even more complex, and once again, it’s all about Divide and Rule. 

Two months ago, Russia, Iran, and Azerbaijan committed to building a single railway from Iran and its ports in the Persian Gulf through Azerbaijan, to be linked to the Russian-Eastern Europe railway system. 

This is a railway project on the scale of the Trans-Siberian – to connect Eastern Europe with Eastern Africa and South Asia, bypassing the Suez Canal and European ports. The INSTC on steroids, in fact. 

Guess what happened next? A provocation in Nagorno-Karabakh, with the deadly potential of involving not only Armenia and Azerbaijan but also Iran and Turkiye. 

Tehran has been crystal clear on its red lines: it will never allow a defeat of Armenia, with direct participation from Turkiye, which fully supports Azerbaijan.

Add to the incendiary mix are joint military exercises with the US in Armenia – which happens to be a member of the Russian-led CSTO – cast, for public consumption, as one of those seemingly innocent “partnership” NATO programs. 

This all spells out an IMEC subplot bound to undermine INTSC. Both Russia and Iran are fully aware of the former’s endemic weaknesses: political trouble between several participants, those “missing links” of track, and all important infrastructure still to be built. 

Turkish Sultan Recep Tayyip Erdogan, for his part, will never give up the Zangezur corridor across Syunik, the south Armenian province, which was envisaged by the 2020 armistice, linking Azerbaijan to Turkiye via the Azeri enclave of Nakhitchevan – that will run through Armenian territory.

Baku did threaten to attack southern Armenia if the Zangezur corridor was not facilitated by Yerevan. So Syunik is the next big unresolved deal in this riddle. Tehran, it must be noted, will go no holds barred to prevent a Turkish-Israeli-NATO corridor cutting Iran off from Armenia, Georgia, the Black Sea, and Russia. That would be the reality if this NATO-tinted coalition grabs Syunik. 

Today, Erdogan and Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev meet in the Nakhchivan enclave between Turkiye, Armenia, and Iran to start a gas pipeline and open a military production complex.   

The Sultan knows that Zangezur may finally allow Turkiye to be linked to China via a corridor that will transit the Turkic world, in Azerbaijan and the Caspian. This would also allow the collective west to go even bolder on Divide and Rule against Russia and Iran. 

Is the IMEC another far-fetched western fantasy? The place to watch is Syunik.

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of The Cradle.

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Will a tripartite US-Saudi-Israeli ‘Deal’ make Any difference?

16 Sep 2023

Source: Al Mayadeen English

Old habits, linger … linger well past the time when old rituals (an Israeli PM visit to the Oval Office) had agency and the world hung on the outcome. (Al Mayadeen English; Illustrated by Arwa Makki)

Director of Conflicts Forum; Former Senior British Diplomat; Author.

Alastair Crooke

An image of the White House lecturing, and facing off versus Netanyahu’s policies, might look ‘tough’ … but will any of this elaborate ‘dance’ — whether Biden and Netanyahu meet or not — make a jot of difference?

The Financial Times adopts a dour tone: The final statement of the G20 on Ukraine was “a blow to Western countries that have tried to convince developing countries to condemn Moscow – and support Ukraine over the past year,” adding gloomily that this latest declaration was drained of even the previous inclusion of ‘Russian aggression against Ukraine.’ “Now,” the FT laments, “there is no such wording.”

This may seem a symbolic omission, but it links directly to Ukraine’s failure to make any progress with its offensive against Russian defensive lines. Here is where symbolism speaks louder than words: The omission says that the collective Western élites are out-of-sync with the rest of the world. Washington will have to ‘cope’ with the consequences of their ‘project failure’ — and manage it from an unaccustomed position of weakness, rather than through collective pressure on Moscow.

It should have been obvious, coming so soon after the BRICS expansion and the Africa Summit in Saint Petersburg, that collective global sentiment had turned sour on the prevalent ‘Rules-Based Order’, and has entered a quite radical mode.

Yet, much of the ruling strata still do not ‘get it’ – that change is coming.

The habits of the ‘old order,’ however, are slow to evolve. So, we return to an old-style dance, and to a music that evokes another era: Will the Israeli PM meet directly with Biden, either on the margins of the September UN General Assembly, or in the Oval Office of the White House? These pirouettes and swirls have been continuing for nine months now, infused with breathless anticipation.

There are, of course, real issues at the centre of this performance: The US would like Netanyahu to join the tech boycott of China, and generally to help diminish China. Secondly, Team Biden would like the Israeli government to recant its project of Judicial Reform; and thirdly, to ‘throw the Palestinians a bone or two’ as part of persuading Saudi Arabia to normalise with Israel in a tripartite – US-Saudi-Israeli — deal. 

The putative ‘deal’ would be shaped around a US-Saudi defence pact — including US security guarantees, a multibillion-dollar arms deal, and a nuclear reactor — in exchange for Saudi recognition of “Israel,” a cooling-off of relations with China, and tangible Israeli measures to ameliorate the lives of the Palestinians.

With this curt listing of the Biden wish-list, what stands out immediately is that none the US big ‘asks’ are in Netanyahu’s interest:

Severing with China on tech?  No way; “Israel” has billed itself as the ‘Tech Start-Up Nation’.

On September 12, “Israel’s” Supreme Court will consider petitions seeking the disqualification of July’s Knesset law removing ‘unreasonableness’ as the criteria by which the Court can elect to strike down laws passed (validly) in Parliament.

However, Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana has already said that the Supreme Court should recognize the limits of its power; that it cannot strike down a Basic Law; and that the Knesset shall not be trampled upon. Plainly put, the Minster is saying that the government will not comply, were the Court to strike down July’s Knesset vote. And Netanyahu has endorsed Ohana’s statement. So, ‘no’ — endangering his coalition is not in Netanyahu’s interest.

The reality is that Netanyahu is ‘hostage’ to his coalition — and not vice versa. And the reality is also that in recent months, entire Palestinian communities between Ramallah and Jericho have been chased out (i.e. cleansed) by settler violence, paving the way for a total Israeli takeover of thousands of acres of land.

Gideon Levy has warned that ‘an unbelievable population transfer’ is underway in the West Bank.

Yes, a photo-op with Biden is thought likely to lend credibility to Netanyahu’s electoral prospects at home. For Biden, an image of the White House lecturing, and facing-off versus Netanyahu’s policies, might look ‘tough’ … but will any of this elaborate ‘dance’ — whether Biden and Netanyahu meet or not — make a jot of difference?

When set against the tide of geo-politics sweeping the globe towards a new political, trading and economic disposition, it becomes hard to see why such attention is given to this issue.

Even though both Presidents Xi and Putin were absent from the G20, their ‘presence’ dominated the meeting. Will then “Israel’s” cutting back of relations with China halt the tide moving in China’s direction? Will US ‘security guarantees’ for Saudi Arabia, even if approved by Congress, make a significant difference, given the Kingdom’s strategic transposition to join the BRICS and the SCO? Would giving $1 billion to Mahmoud Abbas change the boiling Palestinian cauldron?

The point here is that the rancorous face-off in “Israel” by two irreconcilable blocs of Israeli society is ‘what it is.’ A word here or there from Washington will not change the powerful and volatile dynamics already in motion.

Old habits, however, linger … linger well past the time when old rituals (an Israeli PM visit to the Oval Office) had agency and the world hung on the outcome. As the G18 just demonstrated, however, it is how the Ukraine drama unfolds that will make its impress upon global geo-politics. The Middle East ‘steamer’ is coming to high pressure across Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, and Iraq. Is the West again out-of-synch with uncomfortable realities?

The opinions mentioned in this article do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Al mayadeen, but rather express the opinion of its writer exclusively.

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What’s the True Potential of The India-Middle East-Europe Corridor?

September 15, 2023

By Darko Lazar

One of the biggest announcements to come out of the G20 summit in New Delhi was the launch of an ambitious plan to build an economic corridor linking Europe with the Middle East and India via rail and sea. 

A 325-word Memorandum of Understanding inked by India, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Germany, France, Italy, the European Union and the United States, outlines how this newly envisaged network would help boost trade, deliver energy resources and improve digital connectivity.

The so-called India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, or IMEC, comprises two separate routes – an east corridor linking India to the Gulf monarchies and a northern corridor connecting the Arab states to Europe.

“Israel” is not a signatory but is mentioned in the MoU as one of the transit points for goods and services moving through the ship-to-rail network.

For “Israeli” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been desperately trying to normalize ties with Saudi Arabia, it didn’t matter whether Tel Aviv is a signatory or not. He jumped on the news coming out of New Delhi and declared that “Israel” was “a central junction in this economic corridor”, which would “change the face of the Middle East.”

Netanyahu isn’t the only one hyping up the project. Some in the mainstream media have already dubbed it a “game-changer”, and the White House claims the corridor is ushering in a “new era of connectivity.” But is the planned trade route any of those things?

There is no alternative to the alternative 

The unveiling of IMEC was almost immediately characterized as a challenge to China’s Belt and Road Initiative [BRI].

The latter is the world’s largest infrastructure project that seeks to connect Asia with Africa and Europe via land and maritime networks with the aim of advancing integration, increasing trade and stimulating economic growth.

Naturally, this massive Chinese foreign policy undertaking is perceived as a major threat to US hegemony. Washington responded by peddling the narrative that the BRI is a debt trap as it leaned on ‘allies’ to abandon the Chinese program while trying to improve its own competitiveness on the global stage.

IMEC is supposed to be part of the Biden administration’s alternative to the BRI. It’s true that both initiatives share many of the same objectives and methods of implementation. In theory, at least, both are designed to connect manufacturers in Asia with consumers in the West, while implementing infrastructure projects along the corridors.

But the BRI has already lived up to the hype and will make for tough competition. The Chinese have invested around $1 trillion into the scheme that now extends across 150 countries, including IMEC signatories, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. And unlike “Israel”, these two countries are the actual “central junction” in the new economic corridor.

Here, it’s important to note that China is already Saudi Arabia’s largest trading partner and the biggest investor in the Kingdom’s economy.

Speculation about the Americans trying to rip India out of BRICS, while working to help New Delhi replace the Chinese as Riyadh’s key trading partner may very well be accurate. But these are unrealistic objectives.

The Chinese are investing billions into the Saudi economy while New Delhi is looking for cash injections from Riyadh. According to modest projections, the Saudis will cough up around $100 billion for India’s economy in the coming years while the current turnover of more than $50 billion is also the result of Riyadh’s investments in this partnership.

Furthermore, the West’s failure to ‘Ukrainize’ the G20 summit in New Delhi is just another reminder that India has no interest in abandoning its role in the expanding BRICS bloc. Instead, both India and Saudi Arabia, along with the rest of the Global South, have embraced multipolarity and are exploring numerous multilateral frameworks for advancing their national interests.

As such, China’s BRI and the billions it pumps into the Saudi economy will undoubtedly remain a priority for Riyadh. As the Saudis and Emiratis forge ahead with the diversification of their economic relations, including the expansion of ties with Iran, they are likely to seek the integration of the BRI and IMEC into a single global artery of logistics. This integration with existing networks is perhaps the only logical step for realizing IMEC’s true potential. 

The main speedbump is the US, which wants to use the initiative as a political tool against China and Russia and grow its influence in the countries along the corridor rather than focus on mutual economic development.

Still No Framework for Normalization

With numerous transportation and logistics projects springing up across the Eurasia region, Gulf states haven’t failed to realize their infrastructure potential. The member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council are mapping out their own sea and land freight routes, which led to the revival of the massive Gulf Railway project.

The railway system, which is expected to be completed by 2025 and cost around $250 billion, will link all six GCC members. Presumably, this is the same railway system that “Israel” wants to plug in to guarantee its place in IMEC and normalize ties with Saudi Arabia.

In July, Netanyahu announced plans for the construction of a $27 billion rail expansion that could provide overland links to Saudi Arabia in the future. But the Saudis still haven’t responded to that announcement.

That same month, Biden himself said that “Israel” and Saudi Arabia were a long way from a normalization agreement. Meanwhile, his national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, admitted on the way to the G20 summit in India that there is still no actual framework for normalization.

When asked whether IMEC was part of normalization efforts between Riyadh and Tel Aviv, the State Department’s Matthew Miller said, “No, it is separate.”  

It probably doesn’t help that the Biden administration has a tumultuous relationship with both the Netanyahu government and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman.

Some of the elements for normalization are undoubtedly on the table. However, nothing has been finalized.

Of course, it makes far more sense for the Gulf Railway project to be directed towards Syria and Lebanon, which are perfectly positioned for the role of a bridge in any future India-Europe economic corridor.  

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ANC on G77 Summit: Resounding win for Cuba to end blockade, sanctions

 September 15, 2023

Source: Al Mayadeen

View of the opening of the International Convention on Environment and Development of the G77 and China at the National Hotel in Havana, Cuba, on July 4, 2023 (AFP)

By Al Mayadeen English

Explore in detail the remarks made by the Arab intellectuals of the Arab National Congress ahead of the G77+China Summit to be held in Havana, Cuba.

The Arab National Congress (ANC) sees the G77+China Summit held in Cuba as a confirmation of the world’s transition into a new multipolar international system, the General Secretariat of the ANC said in a statement discussing the upcoming meeting in Havana.

The historic Summit, taking place in Cuba parallel with other high-level events such as the BRICS+ Summit, the G20 Summit, and the Russia-Africa Summit, serves as a reminder of the world’s readiness to transition to multipolarity, the ANC stated.

The group stressed the importance of economic development as a key factor in achieving political independence. They underscored the need to rally behind Resistance movements worldwide, calling for a global initiative to be launched in order to break unilateral economic sanctions and lift embargoes that have strangled numerous nations.

The ANC stressed that the West and the Global North will seek to marginalize and downplay the impact of the Summit, which holds various political dimensions.

Furthermore, they highlighted the significance of Cuba’s role as the host of the summit, considering that the Island has been under a six-decade-long, US-led embargo.

The ANC also pointed to the 134-strong attending nations, which constitutes a victory for Cuba against the crippling US policy on both the diplomatic and political fronts.

“This is especially important given the various attempts to isolate, blockade, conspire against, and wage wars against the Cuban revolution in order to overthrow it and break its will,” the statement read.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’ participation at the conference marks another break in the diplomatic blockade imposed against Havana’s government and people.

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“It is a victory for Cuba as a whole and for President Miguel Diaz-Canel personally.”

Read more: G77 + China Summit: Global cooperation led by Cuba

Latin America at the forefront of multipolarity

The G77+China Summit will renew global significance for Latin America, reflecting its rise to the path to liberating itself from American hegemony, the ANC added.

The ANC said the event carries on with “the legacy of the Non-Alligned Movement, in which Arab liberation leaders like President Gamal Abdel Nasser played a significant role in launching.”

It added that the event will also commemorate the living spirits of great Latin American leaders like Fidel Castro and, Hugo Chavez.

“The participation of countries known for their close ties with Washington also sends another message on the changing [political] conditions in many countries, where their leaders realize that the peaceful path to achieving full development lies in adopting policies that unite developing countries and prioritize balance in international relations.”

Read more: G77: A forum for global equality

The ANC criticized the lack of presence of Arab nations at the conference which targets science and development issues.

The Arab National Congress ended its statement with several crucial points, including:

• Calling for this summit to include resolutions in support of all liberation, independence, and resistance movements worldwide against colonialism and hegemony;
  
• Establishing special funds for the reconstruction of disaster-stricken developing countries;
  
• Initiating internal dialogue between conflicting countries;
  
• Giving climate crisis, global warming, and other environmental issues the attention they deserve.

Read more: G77; its history and legacy

G77 Summit 2023

Despite its members’ diverse cultures, geographies, and economies, the G77+China has consistently maintained multilateralism as a guiding principle for its South-South cooperation strategies. The G77+China has been a key player in addressing global development challenges. On September 15-16, 2023, the G77 and China convene a summit in Havana, Cuba where they will address pressing development issues.

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Egypt on the Economic Corridor: No alternative for Suez Canal

Sep 12, 2023

Source: Al Mayadeen

The BW Lesmes is shown in the waterway of the Suez Canal on August 23, 2023 (AP)

By Al Mayadeen English

Former Suez Canal Authority Head asserts that there is no substitute for the Suez Canal in maritime transport, in response to the announcement of the Economic Corridor project by the United States, India, and Saudi Arabia.

General Mohab Mamish, former adviser to the President and former head of the Suez Canal Authority, emphasized that there is no alternative to the Suez Canal, which stands as the fastest route for maritime transport.

These statements come in response to the announcement made by the United States, India, and Saudi Arabia on the sides of the G20 summit on Saturday, regarding the launch of the Economic Corridor project which connects India to the Middle East and Europe through Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, and the Israeli occupation. 

In televised remarks, Mamish stressed that there can be “no comparison between a multimodal project and the Suez Canal, which is the fastest maritime route in the world.”

He also denied any potential impacts or repercussions on the canal in the future, stating that “the transportation process through it [the Economic Corridor] would be costly, time-consuming, and against the economics of maritime transport.”

Mamish explained that the project involves “transporting goods by sea, then by rail, followed by land transport vehicles before finally unloading on land.” He added that this is a “highly costly process with no comparison to the Suez Canal.”

In contrast, he explained that the Suez Canal is “capable and prepared to compete since it is the fastest, deepest, and most secure canal in the world. In just 11 hours, we reach the Red Sea and connect to Asia, Europe, and all the world’s ports.”

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It is worth noting that the Suez Canal is an artificial waterway at sea level in Egypt, running from north to south through the Suez Isthmus to connect the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea. It serves as the shortest maritime route between Europe and countries surrounding the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific Ocean, making it one of the busiest shipping lanes globally.

Read more: Biden reveals the ME economic railway to counter BRI

During the G20 summit in New Delhi, US President Joe Biden announced a plan to build a railway and shipping corridor connecting India, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the European Union, aiming to boost trade and political cooperation.

Biden stated that this deal is “truly significant,” noting that the corridor “will help enhance trade, secure energy resources, and improve digital connectivity.”

The announcement was also attended by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and other leaders from around the world.

According to information released, “Israel will participate in extending the railway tracks, infrastructure, and shipping lines, along with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan.”

The White House did not however specify when the project would be completed, its cost, or how it would be financed.

Read more: New corridor for India-Russia trade via Iran nearly complete

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‘Welcome to the BRICS 11’

AUG 25, 2023

Photo Credit: The Cradle

‘No mountains can stop the surging flow of a mighty river.’ With the addition of six new members that add geostrategic clout and geographic depth to the once sputtering BRICS, the multilateral institution is now gathering the momentum needed to reset international relations.

Pepe Escobar

In the end, History was made. Surpassing even the greatest of expectations, the BRICS nations performed a giant step for multipolarity by expanding the group to BRICS 11.  

Starting on January 1, 2024, the five original BRICS members will be joined by Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). 

No, they won’t turn into an unpronounceable BRIICSSEEUA. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov confirmed the song remains the same, with the familiar BRICS acronym to the Global South or Global Majority or “Global Globe” multilateral organization that will shape the contours of a new system of international relations.  

Here is the Johannesburg II Declaration of the 15^th BRICS summit. BRICS 11 is just the start. There’s a long line eager to join; without referring to the dozens of nations (and counting) that have already “expressed their interest”, according to the South Africans, the official list, so far, includes Algeria, Bangladesh, Bahrain, Belarus, Bolivia, Venezuela, Vietnam, Guinea, Greece, Honduras, Indonesia, Cuba, Kuwait, Morocco, Mexico, Nigeria, Tajikistan, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkiye and Syria. 

By next year, most of them will either become BRICS 11 partners or part of the second and third wave of fully-fledged members. The South Africans have stressed that BRICS “will not be limited to just one expansion phase.”

Russia-China leadership, in effect 

The road leading to BRICS 11, during the two days of discussions in Johannesburg, was hard and bumpy, as admitted by Russian President Vladimir Putin himself. The final result turned out to be a prodigy of trans-continental inclusion. West Asia was aggregated in full force. The Arab world has three full members, as much as Africa. And Brazil strategically lobbied to incorporate troubled Argentina. 

The global GDP-purchasing power parity (PPP) of BRICS 11, as it stands, is now 36 percent (already larger than the G7), and the institution now encompasses 47 percent of the world’s population.

BRICS+ Countries GDP, GDP (PPP) and Debt. (Photo Credit: The Cradle)

G7 Countries GDP, GDP (PPP) and Debt. (Photo Credit: The Cradle)

Even more than a geopolitical and geoeconomic breakthrough, BRICS 11 really breaks the bank on the energy front. By signing up Tehran, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, BRICS 11 instantly becomes an oil and gas powerhouse, controlling 39 percent of global oil exports, 45.9 percent of proven reserves and 47.6 percent of all oil produced globally, according to InfoTEK. 

A direct BRICS 11-OPEC+ symbiosis is inevitable (under Russia-Saudi Arabia leadership), not to mention OPEC itself. 

Translation: The collective west may soon lose its power to control global oil prices, and subsequently, the means to enforce its unilateral sanctions. 

A Saudi Arabia directly aligned with Russia-China-India-Iran offers a stunning counterpoint to the US-engineered oil crisis in the early 1970s, when Riyadh started wallowing in petrodollars. That represents the next stage of the Russian-initiated and Chinese-finalized rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran, recently sealed in Beijing.

BRICS+ And G7 Proven Oil Reserves. (Photo Credit: The Cradle)

And that’s exactly what the Russia-China strategic leadership always had in mind. This particular diplomatic masterstroke is rife with meaningful details: BRICS 11 enters the fray on the exact same day, January 1, 2024, when Russia assumes the annual presidency of BRICS. 

Putin announced that the BRICS 11 summit next year will take place in Kazan, the capital city of Russia’s Tatarstan, which will be yet another blow to the west’s irrational, isolation-and-sanctions policies. Next January, expect further integration of the Global South/Global Majority/Global Globe, including even more radical decisions, conducted by the sanctioned-to-oblivion Russian economy – now, incidentally, the 5^th largest in the world by a PPP of over $5 trillion.         

G7 in a coma

The G7, for all practical purposes, has now entered an Intensive Care Unit. The G20 may be next. The new “Global Globe” G20 may be the BRICS 11 – and later on the BRICS 20 or even BRICS 40. By then, the petrodollar will also be on life support in the ICU.

The BRICS 11 climax could not have been accomplished without a stellar performance by the Men of the Match: Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, supported by their respective teams. The Russia-China strategic partnership dominated in Johannesburg and set the major guidelines. We need to be bold and expand; we need to press for reform of the current institutional framework – from the UN Security Council to the IMF and the WTO; and we need to get rid of those institutions that are subjugated by the artificial “rules-based international order.”     

No wonder Xi defined the moment, on the record, as “historic.” Putin went so far as to publicly call on all BRICS 11 to abandon the US dollar and expand trade settlements in national currencies – stressing that BRICS “oppose hegemonies of any kind” and “the exceptional status that some countries aspire to,” not to mention “a policy of continued neo-colonialism.” 

Importantly, as much as the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is celebrating its 10^th anniversary next month, Putin drove home the necessity to:

“…establish a permanent BRICS transport commission, which would deal not only with the North-South project [referring to the INTSC transportation corridor, whose key BRICS members are Russia, Iran and India], but also on a broader scale with the development of logistics and transport corridors, interregional and global.”

Pay attention. That’s Russia-China in synch on connectivity corridors, and they are preparing to further link their continental transportation projects. 

On the financial front, the Central Banks of the current BRICS have been instructed to seriously investigate and increase trading in local currencies.

Putin made a point of being very realistic on de-dollarization: “The issue of the single settlement currency is a complex issue, but we will move toward solving these problems one way or another.” That complemented Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva’s remarks on how the BRICS has started a working group to study the viability of a reference currency. 

In parallel, the BRICS’ New Development Bank (NDB) has welcomed three new members: Bangladesh, Egypt, and UAE. Yet their road to prominence from now will be even steeper.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa publicly praised NDB President Dilma Rousseff’s report on the nine-year-old institution; but Dilma herself stressed again that the bank aims to reach only 30 percent of total loans in currencies bypassing the US dollar. 

That’s hardly enough. Why? It’s up to Sergey Glazyev, the Minister of Macroeconomics at the Eurasia Economic Commission, working under the Russia-led EAEU, to answer the key question: 

“It is necessary to change the statutory documents of this bank. When it was created, I tried to explain to our financial authorities that the capital of the bank should be spread between the national currencies of founding countries. But American agents madly believed in the US dollar. As a result, this bank today is afraid of sanctions and is semi-paralyzed.”  

No mountains can stop a mighty river 

So yes, the challenges ahead are immense. But the drive to succeed is contagious, perhaps best epitomized by Xi’s remarkable speech at the closing ceremony of the BRICS Business Forum, read out by Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao. 

It’s as if Xi had invoked a Mandarin version of the 1967 American pop classic “Ain’t No Mountain High Enough.” He quoted a Chinese proverb: “No mountains can stop the surging flow of a mighty river.” And he reminded his audience that the fight was both noble – and necessary: 

“Whatever resistance there may be, BRICS, a positive and stable force for good, will continue to grow. We will forge stronger BRICS strategic partnership, expand the ‘BRICS Plus’ model, actively advance membership expansion, deepen solidarity and cooperation with other EMDCs [emerging market developing countries], promote global multipolarity and greater democracy in international relations, and help make the international order more just and equitable.”

Now add this profession of faith in humanity to the way the “Global Globe” perceives Russia. Even though the Russian economy’s purchasing power parity is by now ahead of the imperial European vassals that seek to crush it, the Global South’s perception of Moscow is as “one of our own.”  What happened in South Africa made this even more clear, and Russia’s ascendency to the BRICS presidency in four months will crystallize it.

It’s no wonder that the collective west, dazed and confused, now trembles as it feels the earth – 85 percent of it, at least – moving under its feet. 

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of The Cradle.

From pariah to peacemaker? Jeddah summit reimagines Saudi diplomacy

AUG 11, 2023

Photo Credit: The Cradle

Riyadh is redefining its role as a trusted mediator and diplomatic force in the international arena, using its strategic relationships with both east and west to achieve those ambitions.

Mohammed Alloush

Last weekend’s gathering in Jeddah of over forty nations marked a significant milestone in Saudi Arabia’s political landscape. The event, ostensibly to advance Ukraine ‘peace talks,’ provided a platform for the kingdom to unveil its diplomatic vision on the global stage and redefine its role in shaping the multipolar world.

For Riyadh, hosting this summit over the contentious issue of the war in Ukraine held profound symbolism. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS), Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, has long faced international isolation following the state-sanctioned assassination of Saudi dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.

However, this chapter has now closed: With open arms, the collective west has embarked on a journey of re-establishing political and economic ties with Riyadh.

A New York Times report last week highlighted how the Ukraine discussions in Jeddah have not only placed Saudi Arabia at the big table on a critical global issue, but have also offered MbS “another chance to try to position himself as a world leader with influence far beyond his region and as a mediator who can bring powerful nations to the table, even as he struggles to end his own country’s involvement in a devastating war in Yemen.”

Saudi diplomatic triumphs

This is not the first instance of Saudi Arabia assuming a key role in resolving regional disputes. While the international conference in Jeddah may be the latest in a series of diplomatic feats, Riyadh, in conjunction with Turkiye, had previously undertaken the task of facilitating the exchange of prisoners between Russia and Ukraine. In a display of remarkable diplomacy, Saudi officials played a pivotal role in securing the release of ten prisoners of war held by Russia, marking a significant step towards de-escalation.

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, a guest at the summit in Jeddah, passionately implored West Asia’s leaders to stand united against Russia. In a show of solidarity, Saudi Arabia pledged substantial financial assistance to support Kiev’s cause. This echoes the Kingdom’s history of stepping up as a mediator in various regional crises, be it the Lebanese civil war, the Israeli-Arab conflict, or the more recent turmoil in Sudan.

One standout achievement was the 1989 meeting in Taif, organized by Saudi Arabia, which catalyzed an end to the 15-year Lebanese conflict. In 2002, the Kingdom introduced the Arab Peace Initiative, offering Israel a pathway to normalization with Arab states in exchange for a viable Palestinian state, coupled with Israel’s withdrawal from the territories occupied in 1967.

Saudi Arabia’s role in normalizing relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2018 is yet another notch in its diplomatic achievements, fostering harmony between states that had been at odds.

MbS’s vision in redefining diplomacy

The concept of the “inevitability of the renaissance of the Global South” seems to have attracted the attention of MbS. This visionary and fervent young leader, driven by a steadfast belief in the potential for transformative change, has embarked on a path distinct from his predecessors within the House of Saud.

He has taken a bold stance on direct involvement in regional issues, from Yemen to Libya, Lebanon, and Egypt.  In turn, he has moved towards a new diplomatic strategy akin to a revolutionary paradigm shift in dealing with foreign affairs.

MbS comprehends the drawbacks of regional conflicts, exemplified by the Yemen war, and the limitations of traditional diplomatic maneuvers when dealing with key regional players such as Iran. This has prompted his dramatic shift away from confrontational tactics or military interventions, and toward a diplomatic strategy characterized by tact and finesse.

A pivotal moment in this trajectory was the Al-Ula summit of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) leaders in January 2021, which marked the resumption of fully normalized relations between Saudi Arabia and Qatar—a testament to the power of soft diplomacy.

As the global stage undergoes profound transformation, with the ascent of China and India, Russia’s resolute stance vis-à-vis NATO’s European expansion, the faltering of US influence in the region, and the ascendancy of regional powers such as Turkiye and Iran, the contours of world politics are still evolving.

Saudi Arabia is part of multipolarity

Saudi Arabia has embraced the concept of “emerging multipolarity,” a perspective that envisions a new world order free from western hegemony. This paradigm shift was noticeable when Saudi Arabia hosted the historic China-Arab summit in December 2022, attended by Chinese President Xi Jinping.

More recently, in June during the Arab-China Business Conference in Riyadh, Saudi Investment Minister Khalid al-Falih told CNBC TV:

“We like to believe, and I think it’s been proven, that the kingdom is a significant part of this multipolar world that has emerged. And we’re going to play our part, not only in developing our own economy, but also developing our region, and spreading what we have in terms of development opportunities, also to Africa, Central Asia, the Indian subcontinent.”

Undoubtedly, a pivotal facet of the Jeddah summit on Ukraine lies in the participation of states that have maintained a neutral stance, treating the conflict as a showdown between Russia and the west.

While the Ukrainian narrative resonates in western spaces, Moscow’s perspective on the conflict’s origins and dimensions has managed to permeate the Global South.

The Saudi-led initiative has masterfully rallied other countries – those that have hesitated to align with western endeavors – to bolster support for Ukraine. Notably, China and India, conspicuous by their absence from a previous Ukraine summit in Copenhagen, have now made their presence felt in Jeddah.

Their decision to participate is anchored not only in their desire to nurture positive relations with Saudi Arabia but also in their pragmatic approach to engagement. By “attending and discussing,” these states perceive minimal risk, abstaining from any commitment to President Zelensky’s plan that could antagonize Russia and its President Vladimir Putin.

Saudi synergy with Russia and China

Recalling the instrumental role Beijing played in facilitating Iranian-Saudi reconciliation, it is apparent that there are multiple arenas in which Chinese and Saudi interests align. Foremost among these is their shared apprehension over the potential economic upheaval that unchecked hostilities could create on the fringes of one of their largest markets, Europe.

Riyadh’s strategic vision aligns with other BRICS nations such as India and Brazil, who recognize that their combined influence, as a collective of middle powers, can today leave an indelible mark on the global stage.

The Jeddah summit showcased Riyadh’s ability to mobilize international participation, particularly within the influential G20 framework. This marked shift in approach illustrates Saudi Arabia’s pivot from passively outsourcing its regional security concerns to proactively assuming direct management of its strategic interests.

In some respects, the war in Ukraine was a welcome gift to the Saudis, effectively compelling a visit from US President Joe Biden to mend bilateral ties. Throughout the course of the crisis, MbS deftly maneuvered around Washington’s entreaties to ramp up oil production, resolutely aligning with Russia to maintain oil prices at levels conducive to sustaining Riyadh’s budget and ambitious infrastructure undertakings.

With the dispatch of US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan to Jeddah, the Biden administration unmistakably conveyed its desire to patch up its differences with the kingdom and act more deferentially toward the Saudis.

While previous peace discussions in Copenhagen yielded modest outcomes, Saudi Arabia is well-placed to sustain the diplomatic momentum necessary for engineering a peaceful resolution to the conflict, while adeptly sidestepping any perception of undue alignment with Russia.

Geopolitical pragmatism

MbS’s strategy is marked by a nuanced approach to US directives, signifying an inclination to stand by them selectively while simultaneously forging robust and strategic collaborations with rival powers. This growing sentiment in Saudi Arabia underscores a perceptible shift away from viewing the west as the sole determinant of global affairs.

In this vein, Saudi Arabia, under the de-facto leadership of MbS, endeavors to enhance ties with both eastern and western powers. The motivation behind this multifaceted diplomacy is rooted in the kingdom’s desire to position itself as an impartial intermediary capable of facilitating constructive dialogues between conflicting sides. Such a role stands to augment Riyadh’s stature on the global stage.

The Saudi leadership adeptly recognizes that the west is inclined towards a pronounced and overt bias in favor of Ukraine in the ongoing conflict. In response, the Saudis are promoting their potential to play the pivotal role of a trustworthy mediator, particularly with Russia.

Riyadh’s shared interests with Moscow – especially in the realm of oil production as OPEC+ members – have catalyzed the cultivation of bilateral relations over recent years. This pragmatic approach reflects the kingdom’s acknowledgment that over-reliance on Washington, particularly in security matters, might not be the wisest course of action.

While the Ukraine war and its many negative repercussions have taken a toll on the psyche of western – especially European – populations, the dialogue around its resolution has expanded to encompass a global perspective.

By offering itself as an impartial intermediary that can bridge east and west, Saudi Arabia is now positioning itself to impact conflict resolution outside of West Asia, prioritizing dialogue, stability, and cooperation – the driving themes of multipolarity. 

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of The Cradle.

From periphery to priority: Africa as a key arena for Russia’s ambitions

AUG 2, 2023

Last week’s Russia-Africa summit highlighted their shared interest to cooperate against western dominance. While Moscow leads the fight, Africans are eager to play a role in shaping the new multipolar order.

Photo Credit: The Cradle

Mohamad Hasan Sweidan

Since the start of this year, Russia has shown a remarkable commitment to engaging with Africa, with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov making three visits to the continent. These diplomatic efforts underscore the increasing importance Moscow places on cooperation with African countries.

This was expressed by Russian President Vladimir Putin in his recent article published on the Kremlin website on 24 July under the title “Russia and Africa: Joining efforts for peace, progress and a successful future” where he stated:
“We highly value the honestly-gained capital of friendship and cooperation, traditions of trust, and mutual support that Russia and African countries share. We are brought together by a common desire to shape a system of relations based on the priority of international law, respect for national interests, indivisibility of security, and recognition of the central coordinating role of the United Nations.”
The response from African countries has been unprecedented, particularly evident at the second Russia-Africa summit held on 27-28 July. An astounding 49 out of 54 African nations actively participated in the summit, indicating a significant development in the relations between the two parties.

Russian interests in Africa

This heightened engagement comes in spite of the war in Ukraine, which reshaped the geopolitical landscape and emphasized the importance of expanding cooperation with Africa amidst the global competition for positions and influence.

The Russian Foreign Policy Concept, issued in late March, recognized the importance of “strengthening and deepening Russian-African cooperation in various spheres on a bilateral and multilateral basis.” 

What makes Moscow’s outreach particularly noteworthy is that it extends beyond countries with immediate strategic interests or abundant resources. Notably, Russia has reached out to smaller African states, such as Eswatini, highlighting its intent to strengthen its influence and build a positive image across the entire continent.

The African response to Russia’s calls for closer ties has grown substantially. The Second International Parliamentary Conference “Russia-Africa” saw an increased participation of 40 delegations from African countries in March 2023, compared to 36 delegations in the previous conference held in 2019.

Similarly, the second Russia-Africa summit witnessed the attendance of 49 African nations in July, compared to 43 countries in the inaugural summit in 2019.

These developments are especially significant as African countries face mounting pressure from western powers to cut ties with Moscow due to the conflict in Ukraine. According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, western states, particularly the US and France, were exerting “unprecedented pressure” on African countries ahead of the Russia-Africa summit in St Petersburg.

Aid and Trade

Trade exchange between Russia and Africa increased between 2020 and 2022, after the first Russia-Africa summit, increasing from $14 billion to $18 billion, and is expected to double in 2030.   While Russia’s trade with continental Africa is still relatively modest, four countries stand out as crucial partners: Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, and South Africa, accounting for 70 percent of the total trade.

Africa’s top trade partners

Despite being at the bottom of Africa’s list of trading partners and contributing only 1 percent of foreign direct investment to the continent, Russia’s Africa policy is evolving rapidly. The Kremlin has recognized the increasing importance of Africa and sought new partnerships globally while deepening existing cooperation in the face of massive western sanctions.

One significant effort by Russia to strengthen ties with Africa is its commitment to education. In 2023, Russia offered a record 4,700 scholarships to African students, a considerable increase from the 1,900 scholarships awarded in 2019.

Furthermore, Russia has emerged as the top arms supplier to Africa, accounting for 44 percent of major arms imports to the region between 2017 and 2021. This dominance surpasses other major players like the US (17 percent), China (10 percent), and France (6.1 percent).

Russian presence in Africa

At the recent Russia-Africa summit, President Putin emphasized Russia’s commitment to military-technical cooperation by signing agreements with over 40 African countries and providing them with various weapons and equipment. Some of these deals even involved providing aid free of charge, demonstrating Russia’s commitment to supporting African nations in their fight against terrorism.

 Breaking free from neocolonial exploitation

In today’s rapid geopolitical transformations, Africa has emerged as an arena for competing major powers. Amidst this struggle for influence, Russia and African countries have found common ground in their shared interest to cooperate against western dominance.
Moscow positions itself as a leader of the anti-western resistance, while African states see an opportunity to break free from the shackles of western colonialism and assert their voices in shaping the new multipolar order.

To understand the dynamics of the current Russian-African relationship, historical context is essential. The legacy of western colonial policies remains a pivotal element in the cooperation between Moscow and African states.

Many African countries identify with Russia’s vision of a multipolar world, seeking a more equitable presence in global affairs. Russia deftly capitalizes on this anti-colonial sentiment, presenting itself as an attractive partner aligned with the interests of the Global South, particularly Africa.

Recent Russia-Africa summits have provided a platform for Moscow and its African partners to criticize the west openly. Leaders like Burkina Faso’s Brahim Traoré used strong anti-colonial rhetoric to emphasize the need to break free from neocolonial exploitation and resource extraction.

In addition to rhetoric, Russia backs its words with action. At the summit, President Putin canceled $23 billion of African debt and pledged increased Russian investment in the continent. Moscow also highlighted its commitment to African food security, contrasting western practices that prioritize developed countries over developing ones.

UN data shows that 45 percent of food exports from Ukraine, exported under the Black Sea Grain Initiative signed between Russia, Ukraine, the UN, and Turkiye, went to developed countries, compared to 49 percent to developing countries.

Only 6 percent of these exports went to the least developed countries, including African countries, the equivalent of approximately 1.4 million tons. Last year, Russia exported 11.5 million tons of cereal to Africa, and nearly another 10 million tons were delivered in the first half of 2023.

Seeking collaborative partnerships

The report from the Munich Security Conference in February highlighted a troubling trend for the west: 
“Many countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America have steadily lost faith in the legitimacy and fairness of an international system which has neither granted them an appropriate voice in global affairs, nor sufficiently addressed their core concerns. To many states, these failures are deeply tied to the west. They find that the western-led order has been characterized by post-colonial domination, double standards, and neglect for developing countries’ concerns.”

As a result, countries in the region are seeking new partners who will approach the relationship as a collaboration rather than a zero-sum game. They have found an appealing alternative in Russia’s engagement, particularly in President Putin’s rhetoric advocating for a fair representation of African countries in international forums like the UN Security Council and G20. Furthermore, Moscow’s commitment to reform global financial and trade institutions to better serve African interests has resonated with these nations, setting the stage for deeper cooperation.

The growing discontent with the western-led system and the allure of alternative partnerships have helped to forge closer ties between the Kremlin and many of Africa’s leaders. This may explain recent events in Niger and before that in Mali, where military coups have redirected the country’s foreign policy away from the west and, in particular former colonial ruler France.

Gaining ground in the Global South

The support of some African countries, such as Burkina Faso, Mali, and Guinea, for the coup in Niger, can be seen as a message of support for expelling the long-standing French influence and presence there.

In Russian geopolitical thought, Africa has become a region of increased importance and opportunity, necessitating stronger cooperation and multifaceted relations. Moscow’s approach to the African continent is built on three main pillars: enhancing influence through cooperation, emphasizing its leading position among anti-western countries, and investing in the region’s abundant resources.

Russia recognizes that the prevailing anti-western sentiment in Africa provides a unique opening to build alliances and advance the cause of liberation from colonial legacies. The ongoing conflict between Russia and the west extends beyond the confines of Ukraine and is now unfolding in various regions, including Africa.

President Putin has skillfully positioned himself as a leader of the resistance against western influence, effectively resonating with many countries in the Global South, including Africa. By aligning itself with Africa’s desire to break free from historical western dominance and colonial influences, Russia has gained significant ground.

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of The Cradle.

Unconventional Diplomatic Dance: Blinken and Qin Engage in Lengthy Talks Amidst Formalities

 June 18, 2023

Batoul Wehbe

United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken embarked on what can only be described as a carefully choreographed visit to Beijing, marking the highest-level trip by a US official to China in nearly five years. The ostensible goal? To “stabilize” the already strained ties between the two powers.

But let’s not forget the real reason behind Blinken’s sudden interest in engaging with China. It conveniently comes on the heels of the “discovery” of a suspected spy balloon above the US back in February. This dubious incident conveniently provided the perfect excuse for Blinken to delay his trip, giving the impression that the US is taking a tough stance on China’s alleged actions.

Of course, we’re expected to believe that the world’s two largest economies are simply aiming to improve communication and find common ground. Yet, let’s not be fooled by the diplomatic posturing. The truth is that the US and China have been at loggerheads on a multitude of issues, ranging from trade to technology to regional security.

@SecBlinken meets Foreign Minister Qin Gang. No visible smiles. They exchanged a few pleasantries about Blinken's flight over and then sat down across from each other. Press were herded out before they said anything. pic.twitter.com/tNP3fWEhEo

— Iain Marlow (@iainmarlow) June 18, 2023

Protocol Departures

In a rather unconventional gesture, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang greeted Blinken and his delegation at the door of a villa within the Diaoyutai State Guest House in Beijing, deviating from the customary practice of welcoming guests inside the building. The intention behind this departure from protocol remains unclear.

As they entered the villa, Qin engaged Blinken in some casual conversation, inquiring about his long journey from Washington. The exchange took place in English, indicating a concerted effort to maintain a cordial atmosphere. The two officials then proceeded to shake hands in front of the Chinese and American flags, symbolizing the diplomatic encounter.

Following their entrance into a meeting room, neither Blinken nor Qin made any public remarks in the presence of the brief gathering of reporters. However, the meeting itself was reported to have lasted an extensive 5 and a half hours, emphasizing the significance and depth of their discussions. Subsequently, the officials transitioned to a working dinner, further indicating the intention to engage in substantial dialogue and negotiation.

The absence of public statements during the initial encounter hints at the sensitive nature of the issues under discussion, and both parties may have opted to withhold immediate comments until further progress is made. The extended duration of their meeting suggests a commitment to thorough deliberation and an exploration of potential areas of collaboration or contention.

While the specific details of their discussions remain undisclosed, the duration of the meeting and the subsequent working dinner signify an ongoing engagement between the two officials and a willingness to invest time and effort into navigating the complex dynamics between the United States and China.

No Breakthroughs Looming

While both sides cautiously express hope for progress, they are quick to downplay any expectations of substantial breakthroughs. It’s as if they want to manage our expectations from the outset, acknowledging the deep divisions between them.

But let’s not overlook the fact that this trip conveniently paves the way for future meetings between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping. They apparently had a ‘productive’ conversation last November, during the G20 summit in Bali, and now they’re eager to continue their dialogue. It’s almost as if they’re putting on a show for the international community, pretending that they are willing to address their differences while conveniently ignoring the underlying tensions.

As Blinken proceeds with his carefully orchestrated visit, we can expect him to engage with top Chinese officials and partake in lavish banquets. It’s all part of the performance, attempting to mask the glaring power dynamics at play.

Let’s not forget that this trip is taking place against the backdrop of heightened tensions between the two sides, as evidenced by a recent phone call between Blinken and his Chinese counterpart, Qin Gang. The strained nature of their conversation only underscores the underlying hostilities and the fragility of the so-called “stabilization” efforts.

In the end, this visit is nothing more than a well-calculated maneuver, aimed at maintaining the illusion of diplomatic engagement while both sides continue to pursue their own strategic interests. The pretexts may vary, but the underlying power struggle remains unchanged.

Blinken arrives in Beijing on Sunday. Pictures of him getting off the plane were taken by different media.

Source: Al-Manar English Website

The US head of politics in Beijing … what is the ceiling of expectations?

Ukraine Has Five Months to Impress US Before Being Pressured into Peace Talks

May 19, 2023

By Staff, Agencies

US media is reporting that Ukraine has five months to show demonstrable and significant gains or Western allies fear financial and military support from the US may wane and pressure will mount on the country to enter into peace negotiations.

US media reported on the matter, citing several senior European officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

The United States is entering an election cycle and it is important, one European official says, that the American public can be sold on the idea that the more than $113 billion in taxpayer aid given to Ukraine has been effective and “to prove that all of those aid packages have been successful in terms of Ukrainian advances.”

US officials contend that the current $48 billion package which was authorized last year, is enough to sustain Ukraine for roughly five more months, but European allies are concerned future aid packages from the US will come close to matching that level.

Nevertheless, earlier this month Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said his country needed more Western weapons before he could order the start of Ukraine’s much-hyped counter-offensive. He visited four NATO nations this week, Italy, Germany, France, and the UK, securing billions in more aid, but European support is still a fraction of what the US has been providing.

The US government has also hit its self-imposed debt ceiling, which has led to a debate on domestic spending. Some social programs may be cut in the negotiations, which would make selling aid packages to the American taxpayer even more difficult if Ukraine cannot be presented as a winning bet.

US President Joe Biden has, publicly at least, remained steadfast in his support for Ukraine. Before heading to the G7 Summit on Wednesday, a White House official said that “President Biden has been very clear about supporting Ukraine for as long as it takes.”

However, Biden’s likely opponent in 2024, former President Donald Trump, said last week he didn’t think of the war “in terms of winning and losing,” and is instead focused on “getting it settled so we stop killing all these people.” He also would not commit to sending more aid packages and promised to end the war “in 24 hours.”

And there have been hints from other Republicans that support for Ukraine is not unlimited. While House Speaker Kevin McCarthy [R-CA] said he will “continue to support” aid to Ukraine, he also said previously that it won’t come in the form of a “blank check.”

Support among the American public for Ukraine has also been slipping. Polls have shown support as low as 48% in January and while other polls have had that number over 50% in more recent months, it is still far from last summer when 73% of Americans supported military aid to Ukraine.

Without significant gains by the Ukrainian armed forces, it is unlikely that trend will reverse itself.

“If we get to September and Ukraine has not made significant gains, then the international pressure on [the West] to bring them to negotiations will be enormous,” one official said.

Both the UN General Assembly and G20 summit take place in September. Both events would represent an opportunity to get both sides to the negotiating table.

Several countries have offered to act as mediators, including China, Brazil and Turkey, but Zelensky has rejected mediation since the beginning of the conflict when Ukraine pulled out of negotiations mediated by Turkey. On Saturday, he rejected another offer from Pope Francis for mediation.

But much of Ukraine’s sustained capabilities depend on Western support, and another European official said they “can’t keep the same level of assistance forever,” though he felt another year or two may be possible.

America gives Ukraine 5 months before cutting support, disrupting its access to the F-16, and strikes targeting the Crimean railways

379 _ A radioactive cloud from the detonation of depleted uranium missile stores in Ukraine and the completion of control over Bakhmut

In a US-China confrontation, West Asia will bow out

A significant increase in geopolitical and economic ties with China has offered West Asian states an alternative to the US, which has traditionally been the region’s security guarantor.

February 24 2023

Photo Credit: The Cradle

F.M. Shakil is a Pakistani writer covering political, environmental, and economic issues, and is a regular contributor at Akhbar Al-Aan in Dubai and Asia Times in Hong Kong. He writes extensively about China-Pakistan strategic relations, particularly Beijing’s trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

By F.M. Shakil

The prospect of a US-China war has entered the realm of reality. Increased provocations from US military and political officials regarding the status of Taiwan – which China considers to be part of its historic territory – have heightened the possibility of confrontation in recent years.

With only 13 out of 193 UN member states recognizing the government in Taipei as a separate entity, the global community’s reaction to a Washington-led assault over Taiwan’s status remains highly uncertain.

Today, the reaction of strategic West Asia to a hypothetical conflict between the two superpowers is up for grabs. However, given the region’s reluctance to take sides in the Russian-US stand off, it is likely to be equally hesitant to do so in the event of a US-China conflict.

In a memo released on 27 January, US General Mike Minihan, chief of the Air Mobility Command, wrote: “My instinct tells me we will fight in 2025.” General Minihan’s views align with Taiwanese Minister of National Defense Chiu Kuo-cheng’s statement in 2021 that China will be capable of launching a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the same year.

In response to General Minihan’s remarks, Mike McCaul, chairman of the US House Representatives’ Foreign Affairs Committee, told Fox News: “I hope he is mistaken but I believe he is correct.” Adding fuel to the fire, US Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said on 29 January, “The chances of conflict in the relationship with China over Taiwan are very high.”

A lot of hot air

Days after the US general issued a warning that Washington may engage in combat with Beijing in the next two years, tensions between the two countries were further exacerbated by the spoof-worthy Chinese spy balloon incident.

According to some senior Republicans and US military leaders, there is a growing concern that a full-scale conflict between the two superpowers is imminent, with the Asia-Pacific (AP) and South Asia (SA) regions likely to be the primary theaters of the conflict.

Jan Achakzai, a geopolitical analyst and former adviser to Pakistan’s Balochistan government, tells The Cradle that:

“The possibility of a war between the United States and China puts everyone on edge, especially the regions that are intricately linked with the US or China. Some nations will be compelled to choose between allying with the US in the case of war or keeping the status quo to lessen the possibility of hostilities.”

Russian involvement in West Asia

Despite nominal trade and geopolitical relations with Moscow, West Asian countries did not support Washington’s position in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. However, Russia’s veto power at the UN Security Council does have a positive impact on its relationship with regional states, particularly for its ability to prevent expansionist and anti-Arab policies by other permanent council members.

Security and trade remain the two primary pillars of the relationship between Moscow and West Asia, and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s image has played a significant role in shaping these ties.

The UAE serves as a major financial hub for Russia, and Moscow may attempt to leverage its influence in the region to urge the UAE to reconsider US-imposed banking restrictions, if it feels that its interests are being compromised.

In addition, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Lebanon, and Egypt are among the countries that purchase wheat from Russia, which further solidifies economic ties between Russia and the Arab world.

Moreover, since joining the expanded Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) in 2016, Russia and Saudi Arabia have worked closely to regulate oil output and price adjustments as part of OPEC+ agreements.

Putin’s public image has, in part, contributed to a surge in support for Russia in the kingdom. In 2018, when Riyadh faced international criticism over the Saudi-orchestrated murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, the Russian president made headlines by high-fiving and grinning at the then-isolated Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) during the G20 summit in Argentina.

Likewise, his prominent role in thwarting the NATO proxy war in Syria – a geopolitical game changer that, arguably, ushered in global multipolarity – has gained Putin fans across a region that has long suffered from western imperialist designs.

Where will West Asia stand?

Although still a hypothetical scenario, it is worth considering how West Asia would respond to a direct US-China conflict. Many prominent geopolitical analysts have speculated that if West Asia, and particularly the traditionally pro-US Arab states of the Persian Gulf, did not toe the US line against Russia – a significantly smaller regional trading partner than China – its loyalties to Washington in a potential US-China confrontation could be further strained.

Compared to Russia, China has significantly larger investments throughout West Asia. In 2021, bilateral trade between Beijing and the region amounted to $330 billion, with approximately 50 percent of China’s energy supply coming from the energy-abundant Persian Gulf.

China has conducted over $200 billion in trade alone with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. From 2005 to 2021, Beijing invested $43.47 billion in Saudi Arabia, $36.16 billion in the UAE, $30.05 billion in Iraq, $11.75 billion in Kuwait, $7.8 billion in Qatar, $6.62 billion in Oman, and $1.4 billion in Bahrain.

In addition to its investments in trade and energy, China has also invested enormous sums of money in West Asian and North African infrastructure and high-tech development projects via its multi-trillion dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Beijing has entered into strategic cooperation agreements with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Algeria, Egypt, and Iran, and has enlisted a total of 21 Arab nations in its ambitious, decade-long effort to revive the historic Silk Road and export its goods to markets throughout Europe and Africa. Currently, infrastructure developed by Persian Gulf nations serves as a transit point for two-thirds of Chinese exports to these continents.

Egypt is a crucial hub for the BRI, with the Economic-Technological Development Area in Egypt’s Suez Canal Economic Zone, near Ain Sokhna, representing one of the major projects for which the two nations signed contracts totaling $18 billion in 2018.

Iraq, the third-largest oil supplier to China after Saudi Arabia and Russia, has also received $10.5 billion from Beijing for BRI-related energy projects, and just this week, agreed to replace its dollar trade with Beijing for the Chinese yuan.

In West Asia, the US plays second fiddle to Beijing

Chinese collaboration with West Asia and North Africa is not confined to trade and economy; Beijing also provides defense equipment to several Arab nations. Since 2019, China and Saudi Arabia have reportedly collaborated on the production of ballistic missiles, and China also sells Saudi Arabia its HQ-17AE air defense system.

Chinese Wing Loong drones have been purchased by the UAE, and Iraq has placed an order for CH-4B drones. Jordan purchased CH-4Bs in 2016, while Algeria acquired CH-5s – the next generation of the CH-4B type – to expand its aviation capabilities in 2022. In addition, Saudi Advanced Communications and Electronics Systems Co. and China Electronics Technology Group are partnering to build a drone factory for local UAV production.

While US President Joe Biden’s administration’s relationship with Riyadh has been strained due to disagreements over human rights and energy policy, China is making significant strides in strengthening its ties with the country.

As Beijing draws closer to Saudi Arabia, the message to Washington from Riyadh is unambiguous: “The people in the Middle East [West Asia] are tired of other countries’ interference because they always come with troubles.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping received a royal welcome in Riyadh last December, marking a seismic shift in Sino-Arab relations and boosting China’s image throughout the Arab world. In contrast, US President Joe Biden’s visit to Jeddah in the summer of 2022 received a lukewarm reception. This may suggest that a recalibration of West Asian geopolitical alliances may be on the horizon.

Despite these trends, analyst Achakzai tells The Cradle that West Asia will behave similarly to the way it did during the Russian-Ukrainian conflict – even given China’s increasing business and military presence in the region. and the US’s declining control over the oil-rich Arab monarchies.

“Depending on the current situation, the motives of the various states in the region may change and divide into two distinct groups: those who would support the US and those who would support a neutral position.”

China values economy over war

In the Asia-Pacific region, the US and its allies are engaged in a contentious relationship with China regarding maritime boundaries, international trade, human rights, and strategic security issues. Despite signing numerous security pacts with regional players, China appears to prioritize building and strengthening economic ties over military cooperation with Asian-Pacific states.

Due to a history of hostile confrontations and divergent geopolitical objectives, both the US and China seek to increase their military presence in the region. In response to China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea, the US has expanded its military footprint by signing commercial and defense agreements with the Asia-Pacific region.

The two nations have also been at odds over the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which many viewed as an effort to contain China’s economic and strategic influence in its own backyard. Additionally, tensions have escalated between Beijing and its neighbors, particularly over territorial disputes in the East and South China Seas.

These efforts have been emboldened by the 5-member Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), which is an informal strategic dialogue between the US, India, Japan, and Australia that seeks “to promote a free, open, and prosperous Indo-Pacific region.” According to Achakzai:

“Countries that have extensive defense agreements with the US, such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia, are most likely to help America. These nations, which have long benefited from their close connections to the US, must now contend with Chinese territorial ambitions in the region and the South China Sea. The nations having an informal security partnership with the US, such as the Philippines, are likely to back the United States in a confrontation.”

The analyst explained that Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia are expected to remain neutral during the conflict due to their strong business and investment ties with China.

“Other countries in the Asia-Pacific region may feel obligated to support the US if China initiates the conflict. This may apply to countries like Indonesia and Vietnam, which have recently been under Chinese pressure and may need to choose a side to protect their own security,” he noted.

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of The Cradle.

The Global South births a new game-changing payment system

November 30, 2022

by Pepe Escobar, first published at The Cradle and posted with the author’s permission

Challenging the western monetary system, the Eurasia Economic Union is leading the Global South toward a new common payment system to bypass the US Dollar.

The Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU) is speeding up its design of a common payment system, which has been closely discussed for nearly a year with the Chinese under the stewardship of Sergei Glazyev, the EAEU’s minister in charge of Integration and Macro-economy.

Through its regulatory body, the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC), the EAEU has just extended a very serious proposal to the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) which, crucially, are already on the way to turning into BRICS+: a sort of G20 of the Global South.

The system will include a single payment card – in direct competition with Visa and Mastercard – merging the already existing Russian MIR, China’s UnionPay, India’s RuPay, Brazil’s Elo, and others.

That will represent a direct challenge to the western-designed (and enforced) monetary system, head on. And it comes on the heels of BRICS members already transacting their bilateral trade in local currencies, and bypassing the US dollar.

This EAEU-BRICS union was long in the making – and will now also move toward prefiguring a further geoeconomic merger with the member nations of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

The EAEU was established in 2015 as a customs union of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, joined a year later by Armenia and Kyrgyzstan. Vietnam is already an EAEU free trade partner, and recently enshrined SCO member Iran is also clinching a deal.

The EAEU is designed to implement free movement of goods, services, capital, and workers between member countries. Ukraine would have been an EAEU member if not for the Maidan coup in 2014 masterminded by the Barack Obama administration.

Vladimir Kovalyov, adviser to the chairman of the EEC, summed it all up to Russian newspaper Izvestia. The focus is to establish a joint financial market, and the priority is to develop a common “exchange space:” “We’ve made substantial progress and now the work is focused on such sectors as banking, insurance, and the stock market.”

A new regulatory body for the proposed joint EEU-BRICS financial system will soon be established.

Meanwhile, trade and economic cooperation between the EAEU and BRICS have increased 1.5 times in the first half of 2022 alone.

The BRICS share in the total external trade turnover of the EAEU has reached 30 percent, Kovalyov revealed at the BRICS International Business Forum this past Monday in Moscow:

“It is advisable to combine the potentials of the BRICS and EAEU macro-financial development institutions, in particular the BRICS New Development Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), as well as national development institutions. This will make it possible to achieve a synergistic effect and ensure synchronous investments in sustainable infrastructure, innovative production, and renewable energy sources.”

Here we once again see the advancing convergence of not only BRICS and EAEU but also the financial institutions deeply involved in projects under the China-led New Silk Roads, or Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Halting the Age of Plunder

As if all that was not game-changing enough, Russian President Vladimir Putin is raising the stakes by calling for a new international payment system based on blockchain and digital currencies.

The project for such a system was recently presented at the 1st Eurasian Economic Forum in Bishkek.

At the forum, the EAEU approved a draft agreement on cross-border placement and circulation of securities in member states, and amended technical regulations.

The next big step is to organize the agenda of a crucial meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council on 14 December in Moscow. Putin will be there – in person. And there’s nothing he would love more than to make a game-changing announcement.

All of these moves acquire even more importance as they connect to fast increasing, interlocking trade between Russia, China, India, and Iran: from Russia’s drive to build new pipelines serving its Chinese market – to Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan discussing a gas union for both domestic supplies and exports, especially to main client China.

Slowly but surely, what is emerging is the Big Picture of an irretrievably fractured world featuring a dual trade/circulation system: one will be revolving around the remnants of the dollar system, the other is being built centered on the association of BRICS, EAEU, and SCO.

Pushing further on down the road, the recent pathetic metaphor coined by a tawdry Eurocrat boss: the “jungle” is breaking away from the “garden” with a vengeance. May the fracture persist, as a new international payment system – and then a new currency – will aim to halt for good the western-centric Age of Plunder.

Operation Claw-Sword: Erdogan’s big new game in Syria

November 27, 2022

by Pepe Escobar, posted with the author’s permission and widely cross-posted

Wily Sultan is caught between his electorate, which favors a Syria invasion, and his extremely nuanced relations with Russia

There’s another Special Military Operation on the market. No, it’s not Russia “denazifying” and “demilitarizing” Ukraine – and, therefore, it’s no wonder that this other operation is not ruffling feathers across the collective West.

Operation Claw-Sword was launched by Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as revenge – highly emotional and concerted – for Kurdish terrorist attacks against Turkish citizens. Some of the missiles that Ankara launched in this aerial campaign carried the names of Turkish victims.

The official Ankara spin is that the Turkish Armed Forces fully achieved their “air operation objectives” in the north of Syria and in Iraqi Kurdistan, and made those responsible for the terror attack against civilians in Istanbul’s Istiklal pedestrian street pay in “multitudes.”

And this is supposed to be just the first stage. For the third time in 2022, Sultan Erdogan is also promising a ground invasion of Kurdish-held territories in Syria.

However, according to diplomatic sources, that’s not going to happen – even as scores of Turkish experts are adamant that the invasion is needed sooner rather than later.

The wily Sultan is caught between his electorate, which favors an invasion, and his extremely nuanced relations with Russia – which encompass a large geopolitical and geo-economic arc.

He well knows that Moscow can apply all manner of pressure levers to dissuade him. For instance, Russia at the last minute annulled the weekly dispatch of a joint Russo-Turkish patrol in Ain al Arab that was taking place on Mondays.

Ain al Arab is a highly strategic territory: the missing link, east of the Euphrates, capable of offering continuity between Idlib and Ras al Ayn, occupied by dodgy Turkish-aligned gangs near the Turkish border.

Erdogan knows he can’t jeopardize his positioning as potential EU-Russia mediator while obtaining maximum profit from bypassing the anti-Russian embargo-sanctions combo.

The Sultan, juggling multiple serious dossiers, is deeply convinced that he’s got what it takes to bring Russia and NATO to the negotiating table and, ultimately, end the war in Ukraine.

In parallel, he thinks he may stay on top of Turkey-Israel relations; a rapprochement with Damascus; the sensitive internal situation in Iran; Turkey-Azerbaijan relations; the non-stop metamorphoses across the Mediterranean; and the drive towards Eurasia integration.

He’s hedging all his bets between NATO and Eurasia.

‘Close down all of our southern borders’

The green light for Claw-Sword came from Erdogan while he was on his presidential plane, returning from the G20 in Bali. That happened only one day after he had met US President Joe Biden where, according to a presidential Erdogan statement, the subject had not come up.

“We held no meeting with Mr Biden or [Russian President Vladimir] Putin regarding the operation. They both already know that we can do such things at any moment in this region,” the statement said.

Washington not getting briefed on Claw-Sword mirrored Erdogan not getting invited to an extraordinary G7-NATO meeting in Bali, on the sidelines of the G20.

Then-US vice president Joe Biden (L) speaks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at Beylerbeyi Palace in Istanbul. Photo: AFP / Bulent Kilic

That meeting was called by the White House to deal with the by-now notorious Ukrainian S-300 missile that fell in Polish territory. At the time, no one at the table had any conclusive evidence about what happened. And Turkey was not even invited to the table – which profoundly incensed the Sultan.

So it’s no wonder Erdogan, mid-week, said that Claw-Sword was “just the beginning.” Addressing AKP party lawmakers in Parliament, he said Turkey is determined to “close down all of our southern borders … with a security corridor that will prevent the possibility of attacks on our country.”

The ground invasion promise remains: It will begin “at the most convenient time for us” and will target the regions of Tel Rifaat, Mambij and Kobane, which the Sultan called “sources of trouble.”

Ankara has already wreaked havoc, using drones, on the main headquarters of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, whose commanders believe the main target of a potential Turkish ground invasion would be Kobane.

Significantly, this is the first time a Turkish drone targeted an area extremely close to a US base. And Kobane is highly symbolic: the place where the Americans sealed a collaboration with Syrian Kurds to – in theory – fight ISIS.

And that explains why the Syrian Kurds are appalled by the American non-response to the Turkish strikes. They blame – who else? – the Sultan for stoking “nationalist sentiments” ahead of the 2023 elections, which Erdogan now stands a great chance to win despite the catastrophic state of the Turkish economy.

As it stands, there is no Turkish troop buildup near Kobane – just airstrikes. Which brings us to the all-important Russian factor.

Manbij and Tel Rifaat, west of the Euphrates, are much more important for Russia than Kobane, because they are both vital for the defense of Aleppo against possible Salafi-jihadi attacks.

What may potentially happen in the near future makes the situation even murkier. Ankara intel may use Hayat Tahrir al-Sham jihadis – which have already taken over parts of Afrin – as a sort of “vanguard” in a ground invasion of Syrian Kurd territory.

Selling stolen Syrian oil to Turkey

The current fog of war includes the notion that the Russians may have sold out the Kurds by leaving them exposed to Turkish bombing. That does not hold – because Russia’s influence over Syrian Kurd territory is negligible compared with the US’s. Only the Americans could “sell out” the Kurds.

The more things change, the more they remain the same in Syria. It could all be summarized as a monumental impasse. This gets even more surrealist because, in effect, Ankara and Moscow have already found the solution for the Syrian tragedy.

The problem is the presence of American forces – essentially protecting those shabby convoys stealing Syrian oil. Russians and Syrians always discuss it. The conclusion is that the Americans are staying by inertia. They do it because they can. And Damascus is powerless to expel them.

The Sultan plays the whole thing with consummate cynicism – in geopolitics and geo-economics. Most of what is unresolved in Syria revolves around territories occupied by de facto gangs that call themselves Kurds, protected by the US. They traffic Syrian oil to resell it mostly to … Turkey.

And then, in a flash, armed gangs that call themselves Kurds may simply abandon their “anti-terrorist” fight by … releasing the terrorists they apprehended, thus increasing the “terrorist threat” all over northeast Syria. They blame – who else? – Turkey. In parallel, the Americans increase financial aid to these armed gangs under the pretext of a “war on terror.”

The distinction between “armed gangs” and “terrorists” is of course razor thin. What matters most of all to Erdogan is that he can use the Kurds as a currency in trade negotiations linked to bypassing anti-Russian embargoes and sanctions.

And that explains why the Sultan may decide to bomb Syrian territory whenever he sees fit, despite any condemnation by Washington or Moscow. The Russians once in a while retake the initiative on the ground – as happened during the Idlib campaign in 2020 when Russians bombed the Turkish military forces that were providing “assistance” to Salafi-jihadis.

A view of the site after attacks carried out by Assad regime in Syria on the city center of Idlib on September 7, 2021. Photo: Izzeddin Kasim / Anadolu Agency

Now a game-changer may be on the cards. The Turkish Army bombed the al-Omar oilfield north of Deir ez-Zor. What this means in practice is that Ankara is now destroying no less than the oil infrastructure of the much-lauded “Kurdish autonomy.”

This infrastructure has been cynically exploited by the US when it comes to the oil that reaches the border with Iraq in Iraqi Kurdistan. So in a sense, Ankara is striking against Syrian Kurds and simultaneously against American robbery of Syrian oil.

The definitive game-changer may be approaching. That will be the meeting between Erdogan and Bashar al-Assad, (Remember the decade-long refrain “Assad must go”?)

Location: Russia. Mediator:  Vladimir Putin, in person. It’s not far-fetched to imagine this meeting paving the way for those Kurdish armed gangs, essentially played by Washington as useful idiots, to end up being decimated by Ankara.

Cruisin’ for a Bruisin’, or, Don’t Spit in the Well

November 27, 2022

Source

By Batiushka

‘The Ukrainian people will be liberated from their Neo-Nazi rulers, they deserve to live as friends and good neighbours and prosper alongside their Slav brothers’.

Sergei Lavrov, TASS, 26 November

Introduction

There is such a thing as retribution. This is what it says directly in the verse, ‘Vengeance is mine; I will repay, saith the Lord’ (Rom. 12: 19) and what lies behind the New Testament, ‘Do as you would be done by’. However, other cultures have other words for retribution, ‘karma’ for example in India. Then there is the proverb, similar in several languages, which in English appears as: ‘Sow the wind, reap the whirlwind’. (See Galatians 6: 7). Then there is another saying which is also pretty universal. The Maltese form says: ‘Don’t spit in the air’ – there is no need to quote the second half – you can imagine the spit falling back onto the spitter.

In Russian we have the same proverb, only that is to do with spitting in the well – since you might yourself need to drink the water. Others quote: ‘What goes around, comes around’. Australians and others speak about ‘the boomerang effect’ and Americans speak of ‘blowback’ and ‘payback’. The fact is that there is a universal spiritual law, the law of cause and effect, that when you do something good, there are always good consequences, and when you do something bad, there are always bad consequences. Sooner or later. Anyone who has lived a little can confirm it from experience. Basically, you simply cannot get away with it. And this is what is happening to the Western world today. It’s payback time.

The Perfect Storm

I mention consequences because the history books of the future will be asking the question: ‘Where did the perfect storm in the Western world in 2022 come from’? One thing for sure, it did not come out of the blue. Any number of dates will be put forward as the origin, as far back as 1492 and even further back, for instance, the First Crusade in 1096. From more recent dates we could suggest:

1917, when after nearly three years the US elite entered the first part of the Europeans’ twentieth-century Civil War, having forced Russia out of it through violent regime change. To this day these utterly corrupt Western propagandists justify this cunning strategy by declaring that the Tsar’s government was utterly corrupt (sic!) and going to collapse anyway (sic!) and all were well rid of it (sic!). Some people actually believe that propaganda. They should investigate it objectively, instead of naively swallowing the West’s self-justification for creating the conditions for its genocide.

1944, when US forces invaded and occupied Continental Europe, making it into the first US-occupied Eurasian peninsula, just as they later did with other Eurasian peninsulas, (South) Korea, and (South) Vietnam, in the latter of which they were defeated.

1991, when the USSR collapsed and was (briefly) colonised by the US, leaving chaos and poverty with Chicago-style gangsters everywhere and millions dying of despair and drinking themselves to death.

2014, when the US took over the Ukraine in a violent regime-change coup.

2021, when the US was humiliated in Afghanistan.

2022, when the US clearly began to lose against Russia’s war of liberation of the Ukraine, its equipment and its relations with Western Europe in ruins.

We will leave other dates and the details of the debate to the history books of the future. But the debate will be there, you’ll see. However, beyond the detail that we can leave to the disputes of the academics, the main question that future generations will be asking is: ‘However did the Western world think it could get away with it?’ Where did its delusion come from? These are the questions I will be trying to answer below.

Losing the War in the Ukraine

The US lost the war in the Ukraine the day it began. Russia had been preparing for it for eight years. Ever since, the US and its vassals have just been prolonging the agony by financing a Nazi regime, supplying it with arms, training its troops and sending it paid-for mercenaries. Pessimists see the agony now dragging on for years and years, whereas optimists think it will be much shorter, just a couple of months more. I would like to think the optimists are right, but I actually go along with a more pessimistic ‘another eighteen months’. I hope I am wrong. Every day is a day too long. The fact is the US elite will have to put a lot of effort into face-saving. They hate losing, even though they lost in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria etc.

Backing down from the confrontations they began and chaos they caused is not something they like doing. But when the last US helicopters take off from the roofs of the US embassies in Kiev and Lvov, we shall see. Last Friday an electrician near Kiev said to my friends there: ‘This war is horrible. And it’s only going to get worse. There’s only one solution. We’ll line up all the politicians from the Rada (Parliament) and shoot them. Then peace will come immediately’. I am told from Kiev that there are more and more Ukrainians saying the same thing: there must be a popular revolt to stop it all. Get ready for it there and, at the rate things are going, get ready for the same thing in Western countries as well.

Losing the EU

In the longer term, however, there is the much more serious problem for the US of losing Europe. The national slogan of the Ukraine since 2014 has been: ‘The Ukraine is Europe’. This is of course nonsense. Geographically, the Ukraine, like the Russia where most Russians live, is obviously Europe. Indeed, most European territory is inside Russia. Of course, what the Kiev regime means is that the Ukraine belongs to Western Europe, the EU, only it does not say that. This is because it obviously does not belong there, apart from the small region of Galicia which is now in the far west of the present borders of the Ukraine, formerly Poland, formerly the Austro-Hungarian Empire. In 2014 the EU actually dismissed the Kiev fantasy, telling it that Ukrainian membership of the EU might be considered in 25 years’ from then.

The nonsense about ‘the Ukraine is Europe’ reminds me of a visit to Moldova five years ago. All official buildings flew the EU flag and that was in a country that is not part of the EU and never will be. In other words, ‘The Ukraine is Europe’ is a political daydream, a fantasy. Today, as a result of US incompetence and its lickspittle poodle UK enthusiastically blowing up the Nordstream pipeline, as though that were a present to Germany, we can see that although the Ukraine is not Europe, Europe is fast becoming the Ukraine. In other words, Europe is being corrupted by US political intrigues, being sucked into the same black hole as the Ukraine, without finance, heating, lighting and sewerage. In the words of that old Eastern European joke: ‘Which are the two most corrupt countries in the world? Lithuania is first and the Ukraine is second. But only because the Ukraine bribed Lithuania to take first place, so that it could be second’. Well, today the whole of Europe is being Ukrainianised. Well done, US/UK/EU elite!

Losing the World

Beyond Western Europe, the US elite is also losing the rest of the world. At one time, the US was No 1. Today it is China. At one time Europe was the most populated area in the world. Today over one third of the world’s population is in China and India. At one time the G7 was respected. Today it is a ghetto, representing only a small and increasingly irrelevant part of the world. At one time the G20 represented twenty countries which were pro-Western or at least Western-controlled. Today, definitely not. The G-20 is being taken over by BRICS +.

At one time the dollar was the world’s reserve currency. Today the world is being dedollarised, as countries sell dollars and US treasury bonds and trade in their own countries. After all, who wants to invest in a deindustrialised country which may illegally confiscate (= steal) your assets, gold reserves included, whose currency is not underpinned by gold, but only by printing presses, and whose national debt totals 31 trillion dollars, nearly all of which has been accumulated in the last forty years?

Conclusion

After 500 years of bullying the rest of the world, with the genocides of the native peoples of the Americas and Australia (100 million dead?), the manipulations of imperialism, colonialism, slavery, the Opium Wars, the salt hedge in India, the massacres in the Belgian Congo and in German South-West Africa, the bloodiest Western War in history which it called two World Wars (70 million dead), exporting Marxism outside Western Europe (millions dead), the carpet bombing of Korea, the French massacres in Algeria, the US genocide in Vietnam, uranium-tipped shells in Iraq and Yugoslavia, the pillaging of Eastern Europe and Russia under Western-appointed puppet governments, the war you started in the Ukraine and the mass of arms you are supplying Ukronazis with. However did you think you could get away with it? Where did your delusion come from? Because you came to believe in your own lies. You are delusional.

I do not fear the civil authorities in Western Europe and their death-threats. I fear only the traitors to Russia, who in fact are CIA assets. I fear today’s traitors, who want to make money from this war or have endless zoom meetings with their American masters and let people be massacred by the Gestapo Nazis from Kiev, trained by the CIA and MI6. True, there are fewer of those traitors than there were. Now I will tell you too: You will not get away with it. There are forces at work which are far greater than any of you. ‘The Ukrainian people will be liberated from their Neo-Nazi rulers’. Yes, they will be liberated, just as the German people were liberated from their Nazi rulers, but at such a price. I tremble for you traitors, because your end is coming too. For everything you have done, you will have to repay. Did you really think you could get away with it and that payback time would never come? You spat in the well? Now you will have to drink from it.

Goodbye G20, hello BRICS+

The increasingly irrelevant G20 Summit concluded with sure signs that BRICS+ will be the way forward for Global South cooperation.

November 17 2022

Photo Credit: The Cradle

By Pepe Escobar

The redeeming quality of a tense G20 held in Bali – otherwise managed by laudable Indonesian graciousness – was to sharply define which way the geopolitical winds are blowing.

That was encapsulated in the Summit’s two highlights: the much anticipated China-US presidential meeting – representing the most important bilateral relationship of the 21^st century – and the final G20 statement.

The 3-hour, 30-minute-long face-to-face meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Joe Biden – requested by the White House – took place at the Chinese delegation’s residence in Bali, and not at the G20 venue at the luxury Apurva Kempinski in Nusa Dua.

The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs concisely outlined what really mattered. Specifically, Xi told Biden that Taiwan independence is simply out of the question. Xi also expressed hope that NATO, the EU, and the US will engage in “comprehensive dialogue” with Russia. Instead of confrontation, the Chinese president chose to highlight the layers of common interest and cooperation.

Biden, according to the Chinese, made several points. The US does not seek a New Cold War; does not support “Taiwan independence;” does not support “two Chinas” or “one China, one Taiwan”; does not seek “decoupling” from China; and does not want to contain Beijing.

However, the recent record shows Xi has few reasons to take Biden at face value.

The final G20 statement was an even fuzzier matter: the result of arduous compromise.

As much as the G20 is self-described as “the premier forum for global economic cooperation,” engaged to “address the world’s major economic challenges,” the G7 inside the G20 in Bali had the summit de facto hijacked by war. “War” gets almost double the number of mentions in the statement compared to “food” after all.

The collective west, including the Japanese vassal state, was bent on including the war in Ukraine and its “economic impacts” – especially the food and energy crisis – in the statement. Yet without offering even a shade of context, related to NATO expansion. What mattered was to blame Russia – for everything.

The Global South effect

It was up to this year’s G20 host Indonesia – and the next host, India – to exercise trademark Asian politeness and consensus building. Jakarta and New Delhi worked extremely hard to find wording that would be acceptable to both Moscow and Beijing. Call it the Global South effect.

Still, China wanted changes in the wording. This was opposed by western states, while Russia did not review the last-minute wording because Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had already departed.

On point 3 out of 52, the statement “expresses its deepest regret over the aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine and demands the complete and unconditional withdrawal of armed forces from the territory of Ukraine.”

“Russian aggression” is the standard NATO mantra – not shared by virtually the whole Global South.

The statement draws a direct correlation between the war and a non-contextualized “aggravation of pressing problems in the global economy – slowing economic growth, rising inflation, disruption of supply chains, worsening energy, and food security, increased risks to financial stability.”

As for this passage, it could not be more self-evident: “The use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is inadmissible. The peaceful resolution of conflicts, efforts to address crises, as well as diplomacy and dialogue, are vital. Today’s era must not be of war.”

This is ironic given that NATO and its public relations department, the EU, “represented” by the unelected eurocrats of the European Commission, don’t do “diplomacy and dialogue.”

Fixated with war

Instead the US, which controls NATO, has been weaponizing Ukraine, since March, by a whopping $91.3 billion, including the latest presidential request, this month, of $37.7 billion. That happens to be 33 percent more than Russia’s total (italics mine) military spending for 2022.

Extra evidence of the Bali Summit being hijacked by “war” was provided by the emergency meeting, called by the US, to debate what ended up being a Ukrainian S-300 missile falling on a Polish farm, and not the start of WWIII like some tabloids hysterically suggested.

Tellingly, there was absolutely no one from the Global South in the meeting – the sole Asian nation being the Japanese vassal, part of the G7.

Compounding the picture, we had the sinister Davos master Klaus Schwab once again impersonating a Bond villain at the B20 business forum, selling his Great Reset agenda of “rebuilding the world” through pandemics, famines, climate change, cyber attacks, and – of course – wars.

As if this was not ominous enough, Davos and its World Economic Forum are now ordering Africa – completely excluded from the G20 – to pay $2.8 trillion to “meet its obligations” under the Paris Agreement to minimize greenhouse gas emissions.

The demise of the G20 as we know it

The serious fracture between Global North and Global South, so evident in Bali, had already been suggested in Phnom Penh, as Cambodia hosted the East Asia Summit this past weekend.

The 10 members of ASEAN had made it very clear they remain unwilling to follow the US and the G7 in their collective demonization of Russia and in many aspects China.

The Southeast Asians are also not exactly excited by the US-concocted IPEF (Indo-Pacific Economic Framework), which will be irrelevant in terms of slowing down China’s extensive trade and connectivity across Southeast Asia.

And it gets worse. The self-described “leader of the free world” is shunning the extremely important APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) summit in Bangkok at the end of this week.

For very sensitive and sophisticated Asian cultures, this is seen as an affront. APEC, established way back in 1990s to promote trade across the Pacific Rim, is about serious Asia-Pacific business, not Americanized “Indo-Pacific” militarization.

The snub follows Biden’s latest blunder when he erroneously addressed Cambodia’s Hun Sen as “prime minister of Colombia” at the summit in Phnom Penh.

Lining up to join BRICS

It is safe to say that the G20 may have plunged into an irretrievable path toward irrelevancy. Even before the current Southeast Asian summit wave – in Phnom Penh, Bali and Bangkok – Lavrov had already signaled what comes next when he noted that “over a dozen countries” have applied to join BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa).

Iran, Argentina, and Algeria have formally applied: Iran, alongside Russia, India, and China, is already part of the Eurasian Quad that really matters.

Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Afghanistan are extremely interested in becoming members. Indonesia just applied, in Bali. And then there’s the next wave: Kazakhstan, UAE, Thailand (possibly applying this weekend in Bangkok), Nigeria, Senegal, and Nicaragua.

It’s crucial to note that all of the above sent their Finance Ministers to a BRICS Expansion dialogue in May. A short but serious appraisal of the candidates reveals an astonishing unity in diversity.

Lavrov himself noted that it will take time for the current five BRICS to analyze the immense geopolitical and geoeconomic implications of expanding to the point of virtually reaching the size of the G20 – and without the collective west.

What unites the candidates above all is the possession of massive natural resources: oil and gas, precious metals, rare earths, rare minerals, coal, solar power, timber, agricultural land, fisheries, and fresh water. That’s the imperative when it comes to designing a new resource-based reserve currency to bypass the US dollar.

Let’s assume that it may take up to 2025 to have this new BRICS+ configuration up and running. That would represent roughly 45 percent of confirmed global oil reserves and over 60 percent of confirmed global gas reserves (and that will balloon if gas republic Turkmenistan later joins the group).

The combined GDP – in today’s figures – would be roughly $29.35 trillion; much larger than the US ($23 trillion) and at least double the EU ($14.5 trillion, and falling).

As it stands, BRICS account for 40 percent of the global population and 25 percent of GDP. BRICS+ would congregate 4.257 billion people: over 50 percent of the total global population as it stands.

BRI embraces BRICS+

BRICS+ will be striving towards interconnection with a maze of institutions: the most important are the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), itself featuring a list of players itching to become full members; strategic OPEC+, de facto led by Russia and Saudi Arabia; and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China’s overarching trade and foreign policy framework for the 21^st century. It is worth pointing out that early all crucial Asian players have joined the BRI.

Then there are the close links of BRICS with a plethora of regional trade blocs: ASEAN, Mercosur, GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council), Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU), Arab Trade Zone, African Continental Free Trade Area, ALBA, SAARC, and last but not least the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the largest trade deal on the planet, which includes a majority of BRI partners.

BRICS+ and BRI is a match everywhere you look at it – from West Asia and Central Asia to the Southeast Asians (especially Indonesia and Thailand). The multiplier effect will be key – as BRI members will be inevitably attracting more candidates for BRICS+.

This will inevitably lead to a second wave of BRICS+ hopefuls including, most certainly, Azerbaijan, Mongolia, three more Central Asians (Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and gas republic Turkmenistan), Pakistan, Vietnam, and Sri Lanka, and in Latin America, a hefty contingent featuring Chile, Cuba, Ecuador, Peru, Uruguay, Bolivia, and Venezuela.

Meanwhile, the role of the BRICS’s New Development Bank (NDB) as well as the China-led Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) will be enhanced – coordinating infrastructure loans across the spectrum, as BRICS+ will be increasingly shunning dictates imposed by the US-dominated IMF and the World Bank.

All of the above barely sketches the width and depth of the geopolitical and geoeconomic realignments further on down the road – affecting every nook and cranny of global trade and supply chain networks. The G7’s obsession in isolating and/or containing the top Eurasian players is turning on itself in the framework of the G20. In the end, it’s the G7 that may be isolated by the BRICS+ irresistible force.

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of The Cradle.

DPRK fires ballistic missile, vows ‘fiercer’ military response

November 17, 2022

Source: Agencies

By Al Mayadeen English 

DPRK launches a short-range ballistic missile on Thursday, according to Seoul’s military.

A woman watches a TV broadcasting a news report on DPRK firing a ballistic missile off its east coast, in Seoul, S. Korea. (Reuters)

The latest in a series of launches aimed at downplaying western provocations and threats, DPRK launched a short-range ballistic missile on Thursday, according to Seoul’s military, as Pyongyang threatened a “fiercer” military response to the US and its regional allies.

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the military had “detected around 10:48 am (0148 GMT) one short-range ballistic missile fired from the Wonsan area in Kangwon province.”

“The military has stepped up monitoring and guard and is maintaining utmost readiness in close coordination with the US,” it added.

On the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, US President Joe Biden spoke with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping earlier this week about DPRK’s recent spate of missile tests.

The awaited #G20 summit is set to kick off tomorrow in #Bali, #Indonesia. pic.twitter.com/fwLawFHTrp

— Al Mayadeen English (@MayadeenEnglish) November 14, 2022

After a series of missile launches fuelled concerns that DPRK would soon conduct its seventh alleged nuclear test, the US President urged China to exert pressure on its ally. Biden also spoke Sunday with the prime ministers of Japan and South Korea, Yoon Suk-yeol and Fumio Kishida, to discuss ways to counter the threat posed by DPRK’s “unlawful weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programs,” according to the White House.

Read next: DPRK launches 4 short-range ballistic missiles: Reports

DPRK’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Choe Son Hui, slammed Thursday those talks, saying they were “bringing the situation on the Korean peninsula to an unpredictable phase.”

“The US bolstered offer of extended deterrence and the daily-increasing military activities of the allied forces around the Korean peninsula are foolish acts,” Choe said in a statement reported by state news agency KCNA. 

The more efforts Washington will make to fortify its security pact with Seoul and Tokyo, “the fiercer the DPRK’s military counteraction will be,” Choe said.

According to experts, the launch of the missile on Thursday was timed to coincide with the Foreign Minister’s statement from Pyongyang.

DPRK “fired the missile after releasing the statement hours earlier in an attempt to justify the launch to send its message to the US and Japan,” Cheong Seong-chang, a researcher at the Sejong Institute told AFP. 

UN gridlock

DPRK launched numerous missiles earlier this month, including a barrage on November 2 that included 23 missiles, more than it did in 2017, the year of “fire and fury” in which Kim and the US President at the time, Donald Trump, traded insults

Hundreds of US and South Korean warplanes, including B-1B heavy bombers, took part in joint air drills, which have long sparked strong reactions from DPRK.

Read next: US, Japan conduct joint drills amid DPRK missile launches

Experts claim DPRK is seizing the opportunity to conduct “prohibited” missile tests, confident of avoiding additional UN sanctions due to the Ukraine-related gridlock at the UN.

China, Pyongyang’s main diplomatic and economic ally, joined Russia in May in vetoing a US-led bid at the UN Security Council to tighten sanctions on DPRK.

DPRK warns US, allies of proportional response to bolstering US extended deterrence

DPRK Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui warned the US and its regional allies on Thursday that Pyongyang will respond proportionally to Washington’s strengthening of extended deterrence and intensification of provocative military activities in the region.

“The keener the US is on the ‘bolstered offer of extended deterrence to its allies and the more they intensify provocative and bluffing military activities on the Korean peninsula and in the region, the fiercer the DPRK’s military counteraction will be, in direct proportion to it, and it will pose a more serious, realistic and inevitable threat to the US and its vassal forces,” the Foreign Minister said in a statement, as quoted by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

Read next: DPRK rigorously warns US and South Korea amid Vigilant Storm drills

The Minister noted that “staged large-scale war drills” of the US and its allies in the region not only failed to contain Pyongyang but also “resulted in increasing their security crisis.”

“The US ‘bolstered offer of extended deterrence and the daily-increasing military activities of the allied forces around the Korean peninsula are foolish acts that will bring more serious instability to the US and its allies,” the Minister said.
Since the beginning of 2022, DPRK has conducted over 30 missile tests. Pyongyang launched more than 20 missiles of various types on November 2.

Pyongyang maintains that DPRK’s military activities are in response to provocations by South Korea and its allies, the United States and Japan.

«قمّة العشرين» لا تعزل روسيا | حرب أوكرانيا: بوادر «اعتدال» أميركي

 الخميس 17 تشرين الثاني 2022

وليد شرارة

تبيّن الإشارات الواردة من الولايات المتحدة أن خيار المواجهة المديدة مع روسيا، لم يَعُد يحظى بالإجماع المطلوب، وما يترتّب على ذلك من ضرورة البحث في خيارات أخرى، من ضمنها حلّ تفاوضي «بشروط واقعية»، انطلاقاً من بعض الترجيحات التي تشير إلى صعوبة تحقيق أوكرانيا أيّ إنجاز عسكري كبير بعد استعادتها السيطرة على خيرسون. وما حديث رئيس هيئة الأركان الأميركية المشتركة، مارك ميلي، عن أن «النصر العسكري لن يتحقَّق بالوسائل العسكرية»، وقبله حضّ 30 نائباً ديموقراطياً إدارة الرئيس جو بايدن على طرْح تصوُّرها لِما تَعتبره تسوية مرضية للنزاع، إلّا مقدّمة لسلوك الأمور اتّجاهاً مغايراً عن ذاك المستمرّ راهناً

على رغم أن التقييمات الأميركية الأوّلية رجّحت أن يكون الصاروخان اللذان قتلا شخصَين في شرق بولندا، مصدرهما أوكرانيا وليس روسيا، إلّا أن المخاوف التي أثارها هذا الأمر من صدامٍ مباشر بين موسكو وحلف «الناتو»، أعادت تذكير جميع الأطراف بالمخاطر الهائلة التي قد تنجم عن استمرار الحرب الدولية في أوكرانيا واستعارها. اللافت في الأمر، أن هذا التطوُّر أتى بعد معلومات متواترة عن دعوات أميركية للقيادة الأوكرانية إلى البدء في التفكير بحلٍّ تفاوضي «بشروط واقعية»، كما ورد – مثلاً – في مقال طويل لصحيفة «وول ستريت جورنال»، بعنوان «واشنطن تقيّم إمكانية تسوية ديبلوماسية مع حلول الشتاء». ووفقاً للمقال، فإن المسؤولين الأميركيين قد «نصحوا» نظراءهم الأوكرانيين ببلورة رؤية لتسوية تفاوضية انطلاقاً من ترجيحهم صعوبة تحقيق كييف أيّ إنجاز عسكري كبير بعد استعادتها السيطرة على خيرسون: أوّلاً لأن القوات الروسية تراجعت إلى مناطق شرق نهر دنيبر، وغالبها حضري وقريب جغرافيّاً من روسيا، حيث تمتلك مواقع عسكرية محصّنة، ما سيجعل أيّ قوّة مهاجِمة تتكبّد خسائر فادحة، إضافة إلى أن فصل الشتاء سيزيد من مصاعب شنّ مثل هذا الهجوم. والنقطة الثانية التي أشار إليها المقال، هي خشية واشنطن وحلفائها من نفاد مخزونهم من الذخائر الذكيّة بسبب ضخامة الكميّات التي قاموا بإرسالها إلى أوكرانيا، ما سيَحرم الأخيرة من أهمّ العوامل التي سمحت لها بالانتقال إلى الهجوم المضادّ في أواخر الصيف. وفي ما يخصّ البعد الثالث، فهو مرتبط بالمفاعيل الاقتصادية والاجتماعية للحرب، على البلدان الغربية، مع تصاعد معدّلات التضخّم الناتجة من الارتفاع الصاروخي في أسعار الطاقة والمواد الغذائية، وما سيتأتّى عنها من اتّساعٍ لمعارضة الحرب في أوساط الرأي العام الغربي، ومطالبةٍ بحلٍّ تفاوضي لها. ويلفت المقال إلى تصريح لرئيس هيئة الأركان الأميركية المشتركة، مارك ميلي، أمام «الإيكونوميك كلاب» في نيويورك، يوم الأربعاء الماضي، رأى فيه أن على واشنطن وحلفائها الاعتراف بأن «النصر العسكري بالمعنى الحرفي للكلمة لن يتحقَّق بالوسائل العسكرية، لذلك ينبغي البحث عن وسائل أخرى».

تزايَدت في الآونة الأخيرة المواقف المؤيّدة للبحث عن حلٍّ تفاوضي في الولايات المتحدة، كتلك التي تضمّنها بيان 30 نائباً من الأعضاء الديموقراطيين في الكونغرس قبل الانتخابات النصفيّة، والتي تحضّ إدارة بايدن على طرْح تصوُّرها لِما تَعتبره تسوية مرضية للنزاع. هي تمثّل بمجملها دعوات إلى الإدارة لمراجعة أهدافها المعلَنة للحرب، وفي مقدّمتها «إضعاف روسيا»، نظراً إلى ما قد يترتّب عليها من أكلاف باهظة اقتصادية، ومن احتمال تصعيد غير مضبوط في حدّة الصراع قد يفضي إلى مجابهة مباشرة مع موسكو، وإلى تخفيض واشنطن سقف طموحاتها. لم تمنع هذه الدعوات جانيت يلين، وزيرة الخزانة الأميركية، من القول، خلال مشاركتها في قمّة «مجموعة الدول العشرين»، إن بعض العقوبات الأميركية ضدّ روسيا ستبقى سارية المفعول حتى في حال التوصّل إلى اتفاق سلام بينها وبين أوكرانيا، ما يشي بتوجُّه طويل الأمد للإضرار بالاقتصاد الروسي، غير أن مجرّد إقرارها بإمكانية مثل هذا الاتفاق يعني أن خيار المواجهة العسكرية المديدة مع موسكو لم يَعُد يحظى بالإجماع بين صنّاع القرار في واشنطن، وأن الخيار التفاوضي بات قيد الدرس بينهم.

روسيا في وضع يسمح لها بالمضيّ في الحرب وإطالة أمدها، وهي تَعدّ العدّة لذلك

على الجبهة السياسية والديبلوماسية، احتفت قوى المعسكر الغربي ووسائل دعايتها الإعلامية بالبيان الختامي لقمّة «العشرين» في بالي، مُحاوِلة تظهيره على أنه هزيمة مدويّة لروسيا، لأن «معظم» الدول المشاركة «ندّدت بحزم بالحرب في أوكرانيا»، على الرغم من إقرار البيان بوجود «وُجهات نظر أخرى بين هذه الدول». في الواقع، فإن الرهان الأساسي للمعسكر الغربي هو دقّ إسفين بين روسيا والصين أساساً، وبين الأولى وبين دول الجنوب الوازنة الأخرى، والتي رفضت فرْض عقوبات على موسكو مع بداية الحرب في أوكرانيا، كالهند والسعودية وجنوب أفريقيا وتركيا والبرازيل والأرجنتين وإندونيسيا. بالنسبة إلى الصين، فإن اللقاء الذي جمع رئيسها شي جين بينغ، إلى نظيره الأميركي جو بايدن، على هامش القمّة، والذي فُسِّر على أنه تعبير عن إرادة مشتركة لتخفيض التوتّر بين البلدِين، لم ينجم عنه في الحقيقة، وبمعزل عن الابتسامات المتبادَلة والحديث العام عن ضرورة التعاون بما فيه خيْر البلدَين والبشرية جمعاء، أيُّ تفاهم في العمق حول أبرز قضيّتَين خلافيّتَين بين بكين وواشنطن: تايوان وأشباه الموصلات. موقف أميركا من القضيّتَين يكشف استراتيجيّة الاحتواء الفعلية المعتَمَدة من قِبَلها حيال الصين، لأن إصرار الأولى على التدخُّل في شأنٍ تعتبره الثانية صينيّاً صرفاً، يعني الصينيّين في «البرّ وفي الجزيرة»، يعكس معارضتها لاستكمال البلاد لوحدتها الترابية. أمّا الحرب التكنولوجية التي تشنّها الولايات المتحدة للحدّ من قدرة الصين على الحصول على أشباه الموصلات عبر إنشائها لهذه الغاية «مجلس أميركا – أوروبا للتجارة والتكنولوجيا»، فهي تهدف إلى وقف تطوُّرها والاحتفاظ بتفوّق نوعي في مقابلها.

يخطئ من يظنّ أن سَيْل المواقف والتحليلات الأميركية التي قدّمت الحرب ضدّ روسيا في أوكرانيا على أنها نزاع غير مباشر مع الصين، وتمهيد للتفرّغ لها بعد الانتصار على الأولى، لم يعزّز قناعة القيادة في بكين بضرورة الحؤول دون هزيمة موسكو، لما سيترتّب على ذلك من تبعات بالنسبة إليها. هي لن تعيد النظر بشراكتها المتعاظمة مع روسيا، بل العكس هو الصحيح. أمّا بالنسبة إلى بقية بلدان الجنوب المشارِكة في قمّة «العشرين»، فإن شبكة المصالح الوازنة التي تمتلكها مع روسيا، وتعاونها معها في ميادين الطاقة والسلاح، وهامش الاستقلالية الذي أصبحت تتمتّع به نتيجة بروز قوى منافِسة للولايات المتحدة على الساحة الدولية، جميعها عوامل ستدفعها هي الأخرى إلى الاحتفاظ بشراكتها مع موسكو. من يشكّ في ذلك، عليه أن يَلحظ في الفترة المقبلة ما إذا كانت تلك الدول ستلتزم بعقوبات ضدّ روسيا أو ستعيد النظر في تعاونها معها في الميادين المذكورة آنفاً. بكلام آخر، روسيا ليست معزولة على الساحة الدولية على رغم المزاعم الغربية، وهي في وضع يسمح لها بالمُضيّ في الحرب وإطالة أمدها وإعداد العدّة لهذا الخيار، حتى يَقبل المعسكر الغربي بحلٍّ تفاوضي يأخذ في الاعتبار ضرورات أمنها القومي، ويُلزم وكيله الأوكراني به.

من ملف : حرب أوكرانيا: بوادر «اعتدال» أميركي

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Videos| 6 Killed, Dozens Injured in Istanbul Blast

 November 14, 2022

Ambulance vehicles and emergency services rush to scene of blast in Istanbul (Sunday, November 13, 2022).

At least six people were killed and 81 others were wounded in an explosion in a busy area of central Istanbul, Turkish authorities have said on Sunday.

The blast happened at about 16:20 local time (13:20 GMT) on a shopping street in the Taksim Square area, the Turkish city’s governor Ali Yerlikaya said.

The area, in the Beyoglu district of Turkey’s largest city, had been crowded as usual at the weekend with shoppers, tourists and families.

Vice-President Fuat Oktay said the blast was thought to be a terrorist attack carried out by a woman.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said before his departure to the Group of 20 (G20) summit in Indonesia that the perpetrators would be punished.

Speaking at a news conference in Istanbul, he condemned what he called the “vile attack” and said “the smell of terror” was in the air.

Justice Minister Bekir Bozdag told Turkish media a woman had sat on a bench in the area for more than 40 minutes, leaving just minutes before the blast took place.

No one has so far claimed responsibility for the blast.

Government minister Derya Yanik wrote in a tweet that a government ministry employee and his young daughter were among the victims.

Source: BBC and Reuters

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