Israel’s war on Gaza is destroying IMEC’s viability

MAY 13, 2024

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(Photo Credit: The Cradle)

Mohamad Hasan Sweidan

The Gaza war’s impact on Washington’s geopolitical agenda in West Asia is becoming starker each passing week. The region’s Axis of Resistance counter-offensives cast doubt on yet another White House project: the viability of the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), a US-designed route that relies on Israel as a crucial link between east and west. 

Security and regional integration

Studies have shown a direct correlation between security and regional integration, indicating that insecurity within a country can undermine its pet regional projects. A recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) report released on 7 May shows countries re-evaluating their trading partners based on economic stability and security concerns. 

The study reveals that foreign direct investment (FDI) is increasingly guided by geopolitical risks. It further notes that the Ukraine war has shifted policymakers’ focus towards enhancing economic resilience, which is crucial for maintaining operations during crises. This shift may reduce interest in economic integration projects like trade corridors designed by the west to counter China’s ambitious, multi-trillion-dollar Belt and Route Initiative (BRI).

The report also discusses the heightened geopolitical risk associated with Israel following multiple attacks by the Resistance Axis, notably Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which conducted 1,194 attacks against the occupation state between 8 October 2023 and 5 March 2024 – the highest attack rate in Israel’s short history. 

This is in addition to attacks from Iraqi resistance factions, Yemen’s Ansarallah-aligned forces, and Iran’s direct retaliatory strikes on 14 April in its Operation True Promise. These developments have significantly disrupted Israeli port and shipping operations, most markedly at its southernmost port.

In December, the chief executive of the Eilat Port told Reuters that the port’s activity had dropped by 85 percent since Yemeni forces began their attacks on Israeli-linked ships in the Red Sea. 

At the onset of the Gaza war, the port of Ashkelon and its oil refinery, the closest to the Gaza Strip, were shuttered. Ashdod Port, located about 40 kilometers (25 miles) north of Gaza on the Mediterranean coast, while continuing to operate, has been partially damaged. According to Eli Bar-Yosef, acting executive director of the latter facility, in the first two weeks after 7 October, Israel was forced to redirect some 11,000 containers bound for Ashdod to other northern ports. Even the port of Haifa has been made vulnerable to attacks from the Iraqi resistance, which undermines the confidence of companies relying on the port as a connecting point between Asia and Europe.

On 27 April, a new party entered the resistance mix. The Bahraini Al-Ashtar Brigades announced its targeting of an Eilat site belonging to Israeli company Trucknet, which is also linked to the massive IMEC project. This raises further doubts about the US-backed route’s viability.

IMEC’s uncertain future

During the G20 summit last September, US President Joe Biden announced the IMEC initiative, which would involve the participation of India, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, along with Israel, France, Germany, Italy, and the United States. 

According to a White House statement, the envisioned trade corridor will feature a rail line, clean hydrogen pipelines, and economic zones stretching from India through the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel to the port of Piraeus in Greece. 

Since the announcement of its corridor project, US statements have focused on the perceived benefit of IMEC in helping to promote economic integration and partnership within West Asia.

However, the war on Gaza and an ever-elusive ceasefire agreement have raised serious doubts about the feasibility of the IMEC. The project’s success largely depends on regional peace, particularly along the corridor’s route, where current tensions could dampen investor confidence. The Axis of Resistance’s ability to target all Israeli ports further complicates reliance on Tel Aviv as a key corridor hub, most recently Yemen’s intention to extend anti-Israeli operations to the Mediterranean Sea. 

In addition, the corridor’s success requires formal relations between its parties, which the US administration has been working on for years. Israel’s brutal military assault on Gaza has stalled normalization talks with Saudi Arabia, a key stakeholder in IMEC and other US-backed projects in West Asia. 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to refuse to implement Riyadh’s conditions for normalization, which include halting the carnage in Gaza and establishing a Palestinian state within pre-1967 borders. 

While Saudi Arabia has long insisted that Israel’s approval of the two-state solution was a key condition, it has watered down its demand – despite worsening Israeli behaviors – to merely asking Tel Aviv to agree to “set a path to the establishment of a Palestinian state.” This, of course, was already done in the 1993 Oslo Accords, a deal which Israel promptly set about violating over the next three decades.

With renewed global calls for Palestinian statehood, some skeptics argue that Saudi Arabia’s precondition for normalizing relations with Israel, contingent on this development, might primarily aim to appease Arab public opinion rather than significantly advance the Palestinian cause. 

‘Game-changing’ or game over? 

According to Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times, there’s a growing debate in the US about whether Israel still serves as a strategic asset or has become a strategic liability – a perspective supported by John Hoffman’s “Israel is a strategic liability for the United States,” published two months ago in Foreign Policy.  

The IMEC, announced by Biden as a “game-changing investment,” aligns with Washington’s strategic interests, particularly in countering China’s BRI with significant investments in Asia, including India. 

But the Gaza war, heavily supported by Washington, has exposed the challenges Israel’s political instability and military engagements pose to US strategic interests throughout West Asia and beyond. First up on the chopping board of US-backed geopolitical projects may very well be IMEC. It is also unlikely to be the last of Washington’s regional projects to unravel because of Tel Aviv.

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of The Cradle.

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India, UAE launch IMEC trade route initiative: Bloomberg

February 28, 2024

Source: Agencies

Containers are piled up at a terminal at the Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust in Mumbai, India, Thursday, June 29, 2017 (AP)

By Al Mayadeen English

The project was initially announced in September 2023 but was later delayed due to the outbreak of the war on Gaza.

Bloomberg reported on Wednesday, citing Indian diplomat Sunjay Sudhir, that India and the UAE have begun to work on the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), an initiative that aims to establish an alternative trade route from India to Europe. 

“India and UAE being the first two countries in the corridor, it is very important for us to take the lead,” Indian Ambassador to the UAE, Sunjay Sudhir, told Bloomberg.

A significant portion of India’s trade with Europe passes through the Red Sea, he said, noting that the creation of alternative routes is essential given the present geopolitical context.

During Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the UAE from February 13-15, India and the UAE signed a framework agreement to initiate work on the IMEC, Sudhir said.

He added that India’s government ministries responsible for ports and shipping commenced discussions with the port authorities in Abu Dhabi regarding this initiative.

Read more: Israeli war on Gaza disrupts US geopolitical trade route, IMEC

This comes against the backdrop of heightened tensions between China and India. Observers have argued that the construction of the corridor is explicitly aimed at containing China in global trade.

A report by Politico in December 2023 detailed that the purpose of the project is to create an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, from which India, as well as the US, will benefit.

Related News

• Israeli war on Gaza disrupts US geopolitical trade route, IMEC

“American interest in exploring and developing Indian supply chains has intensified under Biden,” a senior Indian diplomat based told Politico. “The US is committed to making this a success; it’s a big part of their design,” he said.

The project was initially announced in September 2023 but was later delayed due to the outbreak of the war on Gaza.

The genocide has sparked several resistance movements across the region to initiate operations targeting “Israel” or Israeli-linked elements.

Among them are the Ansar Allah resistance movement in Yemen. Since the start of the Gaza genocide, they have been actively targeting Israeli-linked vessels.

Besides Israeli-linked vessels, transit through the Red Sea is normally safe for all commercial ships and vessels.

However, due to aggressions perpetrated by US-UK naval forces on Yemeni positions, the Red Sea route has become difficult to access.

The construction of the IMEC corridor will thus bypass the Red Sea route by building a trade route stretching from India to Europe and will involve both sea routes and rail routes.

Starting from India, the corridor will first transit through the UAE, followed by Saudi Arabia, the occupied territories, to finally reach Europe.

Read more: Unlike China, India will not become an economic superpower: Report

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Gaza: a pause before the storm

NOV 23, 2023

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The US and its allies will continue backing Israel’s war on Gaza after a brief truce. But as the case for ‘genocide’ grows stronger, the new multipolar powers will have to confront the old hegemons and their Rules-Based Chaos.

Pepe Escobar

While the world cries “Israeli genocide,” the Biden White House is gushing over the upcoming Gaza truce it helped broker, as though it’s actually “on the verge” of its “biggest diplomatic victory.” 

Behind the self-congratulatory narratives, the US administration is not remotely “wary about Netanyahu’s endgame,” it fully endorses it – genocide included – as agreed at the White House less than three weeks before Al-Aqsa Flood, in a 20 September meeting between Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu and Joe “The Mummy” Biden’s handlers.

The US/Qatar-brokered “truce,” which is supposed to go into effect this week, is not a ceasefire. It is a PR move to soften Israel’s genocide and boost its morale by securing the release of a few dozen captives. Moreover, the record shows that Israel never respects ceasefires.

Predictably, what really worries the US administration is the “unintended consequence” of the truce, which will “allow journalists broader access to Gaza and the opportunity to further illuminate the devastation there and turn public opinion on Israel.”

Real journalists have been working in Gaza 24/7 since October 7 – dozens of whom have been killed by the Israeli military machine in what Reporters Sans Frontieres calls “one of the deadliest tolls in a century.” 

These journalists have spared no effort to go all the way to “illuminate the devastation,” a euphemism for the ongoing genocide, shown in all its gruesome detail for the entire world to see.

Even the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine (UNRWA), itself relentlessly attacked by Israel, revealed – somewhat meekly – that this has been “the largest displacement since 1948,” an “exodus” of the Palestinian population, with the younger generation “forced to live through traumas of ancestors or parents.” 

As for public opinion all across the Global South/Global Majority, it “turned” long ago on Zionist extremism. But now the Global Minority – populations of the collective west – are watching raptly, horrified, and bitter that in just six weeks, social media has exposed them to what mainstream media hid for decades. There will be no turning back now that this penny has dropped.

A former Apartheid state leads the way

The South African government has paved the path, globally, for the proper reaction to an unfolding genocide: parliament voted to shutter the Israeli embassy, expel the Israeli ambassador, and cut diplomatic ties with Tel Aviv. South Africans do know a thing or two about apartheid. 

They, like other critics of Israel, better be extra wary moving forward. Anything can be expected: an outbreak of foreign intel-conducted “terra terra terra” false flags, artificially induced weather calamities, fake “human rights abuse” charges, the collapse of the national currency, the rand, instances of lawfare, assorted Atlanticist apoplexy, sabotage of energy infrastructure. And more.  

Several nations should have by now invoked the Genocide Convention – given that Israeli politicians and officials have been bragging, on the record, about razing Gaza and besieging, starving, killing, and mass-transferring its Palestinian population. No geopolitical actor has dared thus far. 

South Africa, for its part, had the courage to go where few Muslim and Arab states have ventured. As matters stand, when it comes to much of the Arab world – particularly the US client states – they are still in Rhetorical Swamp territory. 

The Qatar-brokered “truce” came at precisely the right time for Washington. It stole the spotlight from the delegation of  Islamic/Arab foreign ministers touring selected capitals to promote their plan for a complete Gaza ceasefire in Gaza – plus negotiations for an independent Palestinian state. 

This Gaza Contact Group, uniting Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Palestine, made their first stop in Beijing, meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and then on to Moscow, meeting with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. That was definitely an instance of BRICS 11 already in action – even before they started business on January 1st, 2024, under the Russian presidency.  

The meeting with Lavrov in Moscow was held simultaneously with an extraordinary online BRICS session on Palestine, called by the current South African presidency. Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi, whose country leads the region’s Axis of Resistance and refuses any relations with Israel, supported the South African initiatives and called for BRICS member states to use every political and economic tool available to pressure Tel Aviv. 

It was also important to hear from Chinese President Xi Jinping himself that “there can be no security in the Middle East without a just solution to the question of Palestine.” 

Xi stressed once again the need for “a two-state solution,” the “restoration of the legitimate national rights of Palestine,” and “the establishment of an independent state of Palestine.” This should all start via an international conference.

None of this is enough at this stage – not this temporary truce, not the promise of a future negotiation. The US administration, itself struggling with an unexpected global backlash, at best, arm-wrestled Tel Aviv to enact a short “pause” in the genocide. This means the carnage continues after a few days. 

Had this truce been an actual “ceasefire,” in which all hostilities came to a halt and Israel’s war machine disengaged from the Gaza Strip entirely, the next-day options would still be pretty dismal. Realpolitik practitioner John Mearsheimer already cut to the chase: a negotiated solution for Israel-Palestine is impossible. 

It takes a cursory glance at the current map to graphically demonstrate how the two-state solution – advocated by everyone from China-Russia to much of the Arab world – is dead. A collection of isolated Bantustans can never coalesce as a state.  

Let’s grab all their gas

There has been thundering noise all across the spectrum that with the advent of the petroyuan getting closer and closer, the Americans badly need Eastern Mediterranean energy bought and sold in US dollars – including the vast gas reserves off the Gaza coastline. 

Enter the US administration’s energy security advisor, deployed to Israel to “discuss potential economic revitalization plans for Gaza centered around undeveloped offshore natural gas fields:” what a lovely euphemism. 

But while Gaza’s gas is indeed a crucial vector, Gaza, the territory, is a nuisance. What really matters for Tel Aviv is to confiscate all Palestinian gas reserves and allot them to future preferential clients: the EU. 

Enter the India-Middle East Corridor(IMEC) – actually the EU-Israel-Saudi Arabia-Emirates-India Corridor – conceived by Washington as the perfect vehicle for Israel to become an energy crossroads power. It fancifully imagines a US-Israel energy partnership trading in US dollars – simultaneously replacing Russian energy to the EU and halting a possible export increase of Iran’s energy to Europe.  

We return to the 21st century’s main chessboard here: the Hegemon vs. BRICS.

Beijing has had steady relations with Tel Aviv so far, with lavish investment in Israeli high-tech industries and infrastructure. But Israel’s pounding of Gaza may change that picture: no real Sovereign can hedge when it comes to real genocide.  

In parallel, whatever the Hegemon may come up with in its various hybrid and hot war scenarios against the BRICS, China, and its multi-trillion dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), that will not alter Beijing’s rational and strategically formulated trajectory.   

This analysis by Eric Li is all one needs to know about what lies ahead. Beijing has mapped out all relevant tech roads to follow in successive five-year plans, all the way to 2035. Under this framework, BRI should be considered a sort of geoeconomics UN without the G7. If you’re outside of BRI – and that concerns, to a large extent, old comprador systems and elites – you’re self-isolating from the Global South/Global Majority. 

So what remains of this “pause” in Gaza? By next week, the western-backed cowards will restart their genocide against women and children, and they will not stop for a good long while. The Palestinian resistance and the 800,000 Palestinian civilians still living in northern Gaza – now surrounded on all sides by Israeli troops and armored vehicles – are proving that they are willing and able to bear the burden of fighting the Israeli oppressor, not only for Palestine but for everyone, everywhere, with a conscience. 

Despite such a terrible price to be paid in blood, there will eventually be a reward: the slow but sure evisceration of the imperial construct in West Asia. 

No mainstream media narrative, no PR move to soften the genocide, no containment of “public opinion turning on Israel” can ever cover the serial war crimes perpetrated by Israel and its allies in Gaza. Perhaps this is just what the Doctor – metaphysical and otherwise – ordered for mankind: an imperative global tragedy, to be witnessed by all, that will also transform us all. 

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of The Cradle.

The Top Ten Takeaways From Hamas’ Sneak Attack On Israel

OCT 8, 2023

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ANDREW KORYBKO

Hamas launched an unprecedented sneak attack on Israel over the weekend that completely caught the self-professed Jewish State by surprise after all its security systems unexpectedly failed at the same time. The border wall was breached, some military bases were captured, and dozens of hostages were taken back to Gaza. Israel responded by launching airstrikes inside the strip and preparing a ground operation. Here are the top ten takeaways from everything that’s happened thus far in the latest Israeli-Hamas war:

Everything that’s happened thus far has been eye-opening for everyone.

1. Israel’s Alleged Invincibility Was Dispelled As An Illusion

For starters, nobody is under the illusion any longer that Israel is invincible. Up until this weekend’s sneak attack, some had continued to cling to the claim that its conventional military-technical capabilities and massive aid from America made it the regional hegemon, but that perception was just shattered.

2. It Was Totally Unprepared For Hamas’ Hybrid War Tactics

Upon the breaching of its border wall, which was the result of a colossal intelligence failure and subsequent collapse of all security systems, Israel proved that it was totally unprepared to counter Hamas’ Hybrid War tactics of lightning-fast squad assaults and rudimentary drone attacks.

3. Political Infighting Likely Contributed To This Intelligence Failure

Had Israel’s military and intelligence services not gotten involved in the political dispute over Netanyahu’s planned judicial reforms, which was exacerbated by the Biden Administration’s meddling as explained here, then they might have detected Hamas’ plans in advance and thus been able to foil them.

4. It Also Didn’t Help That US Spies Are Distracted With Ukraine

Israel must take full responsibility for its intelligence failures, but it also didn’t help any that its American ally’s spies have been distracted with Ukraine. If they weren’t so focused on that conflict, then they might have kept at least one satellite over Gaza that could have discovered Hamas’ military buildup.

5. America Is Now In A Dilemma Over Who Gets Finite Military Aid

Business Insider drew attention to America’s newfound dilemma over whether to give finite military aid, particularly artillery shells, to Ukraine as planned or redirect these resources to Israel instead. Its decision could have major implications for both conflicts since the choice between them is zero-sum.

6. Saudi Arabia Will Probably Freeze Its Peace Talks With Israel

Saudi Arabia is under immense pressure from the international Muslim community to freeze its reported peace talks with Israel after the latter’s strikes against civilian targets in Gaza. It’ll probably comply with these demands, which would then ruin the Biden Administration’s plans for a deal before the elections.

7. The IMEC Megaproject Will Likely Be Put On Ice For Some Time Too

The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) can’t be completed if Saudi Arabia and/or especially Jordan freeze their role in its construction to protest Israel’s involvement in the latest conflict, though this won’t harm India’s trade with any relevant party since it’s entirely conducted by sea.

8. Russia & China’s Balanced Statements Surprised Some Observers

Many in the Alt-Media Community wrongly thought that Russia and China favored Palestine, hence why those two’s balanced statements here and here surprised them. Even fewer knew that President Putin fully supports the IDF as proven by his official statements over the years that were documented here.

9. The Debate Over Whether The Ends Justify The Means Has Re-Opened

Hamas’ killing of IDF-trained settlers-civilians and kidnapping of children, women, and the elderly to swap for prisoners was justified by some Palestinian supporters as a legitimate means for pursuing national liberation while other supporters criticized these tactics for undermining their cause’s morality.   

10. Hezbollah Is The Wild Card In The Latest Israeli-Hamas War

Hamas’ sneak attack against Israel brought to life one of the latter’s worst nightmares, which might become even worse if Hezbollah decides to commence large-scale hostilities. In that event, Lebanon and possibly also Syria could be dragged into the fray, which could easily become existential for all parties.

Everything that’s happened thus far has been eye-opening for everyone. The reputation of Israel’s security services has been shattered, Hamas’ has never been better in the eyes of most non-Western observers, and many among the latter finally learned that neither Russia nor China favor Palestine. Should the latest conflict become protracted, let alone expand into a regional one, then there’s a real possibility that the US will freeze the Ukrainian Conflict in order to redirect finite military aid to Israel.  

The Eastern Mediterranean quartet: big talk, less action

SEP 26, 2023

Photo Credit: The Cradle

Forget the pipelines. The growing détente between Eastern Mediterranean neighbors Israel, Cyprus, and Greece is being leveraged mainly to counter Turkish influence and expand Washington’s presence in the region.

Mohamad Hasan Sweidan

On 4 September, Israel, Greece, and Cyprus met at their ninth tripartite summit to endorse the wave of Arab normalization with Tel Aviv. The trio also committed to determining the process and logistics for exporting stolen Palestinian gas to Europe within the next six months.

For years, Israel, Greece, and Cyprus have diligently deepened their geostrategic partnership across multiple domains, with a primary focus on energy and security collaboration in the Mediterranean Sea region. The group, formalized as the troika in 2015, convenes annually to bolster their cooperation in all areas. 

The tripartite bloc’s origins can be traced back to 2013 when their respective energy ministers convened in the Cypriot capital Nicosia to affirm their intention to collaborate on the construction of the EuroAsia Interconnector. The ambitious project would connect the electricity grids of Cyprus, Israel, and Greece via a high-voltage undersea DC transmission system boasting a capacity of 2,000 MW (currently under construction).

In addition, the trio has initiated another joint project – the Eastern Mediterranean pipeline, known as EastMed – which is designed to transport gas from Cyprus and Israel to Greece and onward to Europe. This controversial route has elicited strong reactions from various states at various times and even skepticism over its feasibility. 

Map of the Eastern Mediterranean pipeline (EastMed)

Greece’s geostrategic significance

On 20 March, 2019, an American delegation participated in the trio’s Foreign Ministers Meeting held in Jerusalem, where they inaugurated the 3+1 Forum, a construct devised to include the United States with the three bloc countries. 

Washington’s involvement expanded the cooperative framework to encompass not only energy issues, but also security, defense, and shared objectives. During this meeting, the three parties reaffirmed their joint commitment to “increase regional cooperation; to support energy independence and security; and to defend against external malign influences in the Eastern Mediterranean and the broader Middle East (West Asia).”

This cooperation is part of a larger US strategy to recruit Athens as a key ally in the region. As relations with Turkiye soured over the past decade, Washington has found in Greece another NATO ally it can rely on to achieve its ambitions. 

For the Americans, Greece is crucial in addressing the competitive dynamics among global and regional powers in both Southeast Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean.

Leveraging existing Greek concerns about Turkiye’s naval activities and increasingly belligerent rhetoric, the US has strategically bolstered its military presence in the country – with the potential of becoming a de facto US military hub, as suggested by the Turkish president. 

Tensions between Ankara and Washington have also sparked debate about reducing dependence on US military bases in Turkiye.

Increasingly, it appears that Greece represents the linchpin in Washington’s strategic blueprint for the Eastern Mediterranean, serving as a pivotal launching pad for US forces and facilitating their reach into West Asia, North Africa, and Europe. 

For the Americans, Greece yields an advanced vantage point for exerting control over the Mediterranean and Aegean Seas, a particularly vital position in light of China and Russia’s expanding influence in the region. 

EU’s gas export dilemma

Greece’s active engagement in regional alliances alongside US allies like Israel also offers an opportunity to forge a wider security framework. This approach allows Washington to distribute its geopolitical burdens equitably among allies while the US grapples with its core challenges of Beijing and Moscow.

As tensions escalate over offshore gas rights in the Eastern Mediterranean, these countries have sought to further strengthen their alliance. With the endorsement of the Trump administration, the tripartite group inked a 2020 memorandum of understanding which finally greenlit the EastMed project. 

As envisioned by its stakeholders, the EastMed pipeline will stretch over approximately 1,900 kilometers and plunge to depths of up to 3 kilometers, ranking it the world’s longest and deepest subsea pipeline. Those ambitious specs, in turn, present substantial challenges during both the construction and maintenance phases. 

With an estimated construction cost of $6.2 billion, the project also becomes economically questionable, particularly when compared to the $1.5 billion price tag for a pipeline from Israel to Turkiye. 

In addition, the pipeline project has become a considerable source of regional friction. Turkiye, for instance, remains staunchly opposed to any exploration activities in the Eastern Mediterranean, and any gas transport project to Europe that does not include its participation. These considerations led the US to announce its withdrawal of support for the project early last year. 

With Europe actively seeking alternative natural gas sources to reduce dependence on Russian energy – coupled with large gas discoveries in occupied Palestine, Cyprus, and Egypt – deciding on an export route for Eastern Mediterranean gas has become a pressing concern for the EU. In 2022 alone, approximately 270 billion cubic meters of natural gas were discovered in the waters of Palestine, Cyprus, and Egypt.

A conduit for normalization 

The Eastern Mediterranean gas export route was, therefore, one of the hot topics discussed in September’s tripartite summit. According to reports, a decision will be made on the route of exporting Cypriot gas and Palestinian gas within the next three to six months. To date, there are three proposed routes for exporting Palestinian gas:

The first of course is the EastMed pipeline, an extensive – and expensive – project connecting the Eastern Mediterranean gas fields, including those in Palestinian waters, to Europe through a high-capacity subsea pipeline.

The second route under consideration is a direct pipeline to Cyprus. Nicosia introduced the proposal in June for a 300-kilometer Qusayr pipeline that would link Palestinian gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean to a gas liquefaction facility in Cyprus. Following liquefaction, the gas would be transported via ships to European destinations.

The third proposed route is a pipeline to Turkiye. This option entails an underwater pipeline connecting Turkiye to the natural gas fields in occupied Palestine. From Turkiye, the gas would be further transported to southern European countries.

The summit’s final communiqué underscored the bloc’s determination to expand its cooperation beyond its current boundaries, reaching out to countries in West Asia and on to India. Through the Arab-Israeli normalization agreements, the three parties believe they can connect and collaborate more easily with other regional players and groups. 

Chief among these is the Negev Forum, which encompasses Bahrain, Egypt, Morocco, the UAE, the US, and Israel. Clearly, Tel Aviv aims to leverage its agreements with Greece and Cyprus to encourage economic cooperation with Arab states.

The summit statement was clear: 

“The strengthening and widening of the circle of peace between Israel and the Arab world, unthinkable only a few years ago, holds the promise for a more secure and prosperous region, and we are committed to encourage and support this process.”

During the recent summit, the participants also raised the possibility of inviting India to attend the next trilateral bloc meeting. The move is arguably US-driven and part of Washington’s strategy to attract India’s involvement in the region as an Asian rival to China. Although the two are both core members of BRICS and the exclusive Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the US is now employing all its allies in its geopolitical and economic competition with China.

A Greek tragedy 

Despite Greece being the last EU member to establish full diplomatic relations with Israel, which it officially recognized in 1990, its eagerness to establish a US partnership to counterbalance Turkiye’s regional influence, has brought it closer to Israel. 

This aligns well with Washington’s goal of relying less on a Turkiye under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s leadership. Interestingly, the primary beneficiary of this convergence of interests is Israel, as its relations with Greece and Cyprus continue to strengthen through collaborative projects like the Eastern Mediterranean gas export initiative. 

Recent developments, such as the US-backed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) to transport cargo to Europe via Greece (excluding Turkiye) and Israel’s ongoing refusal to agree to gas exports through Turkiye, are bound to elicit a strong reaction from Ankara.

Washington is well aware of the provocative nature of these projects for Turkish authorities, and by championing them, is potentially signaling a shift in its relations with Turkiye.

The budding alliance between Athens, Nicosia, and Tel Aviv, meant to enhance their collective security and energy needs, has thus far mainly served to extend Washington’s reach into this crucial crossroads of Europe, Asia, and Africa. But as recent US policies have demonstrated, the Eastern Mediterranean, West Asia – even Europe – do not matter nearly as much as Washington’s fixation on China and Russia.

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of The Cradle.

War of Economic Corridors: the India-Mideast-Europe ploy

SEP 25, 2023

Photo Credit: The Cradle

The India-Middle East-Europe transportation corridor may be the talk of the town, but it will likely go the way of the last three Asia-to-Europe connectivity projects touted by the west – to the dustbin. Here’s why.

Pepe Escobar

The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is a massive public diplomacy op launched at the recent G20 summit in New Delhi, complete with a memorandum of understanding signed on 9 September. 

Players include the US, India, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and the EU, with a special role for the latter’s top three powers Germany, France, and Italy. It’s a multimodal railway project, coupled with trans-shipments and with ancillary digital and electricity roads extending to Jordan and Israel. 

If this walks and talks like the collective west’s very late response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched 10 years ago and celebrating a Belt and Road Forum in Beijing next month, that’s because it is. And yes, it is, above all, yet another American project to bypass China, to be claimed for crude electoral purposes as a meager foreign policy “success.”  

No one among the Global Majority remembers that the Americans came up with their own Silk Road plan way back in 2010. The concept came from the State Department’s Kurt Campbell and was sold by then-Secretary Hillary Clinton as her idea. History is implacable, it came down to nought.  

And no one among the Global Majority remembers the New Silk Road plan peddled by Poland, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Georgia in the early 2010s, complete with four troublesome trans-shipments in the Black Sea and the Caspian. History is implacable, this too came down to nought.   

In fact, very few among the Global Majority remember the $40 trillion US-sponsored Build Back Better World (BBBW, or B3W) global plan rolled out with great fanfare just two summers ago, focusing on “climate, health and health security, digital technology, and gender equity and equality.” 

A year later, at a G7 meeting, B3W had already shrunk to a $600 billion infrastructure-and-investment project. Of course, nothing was built. History really is implacable, it came down to nought. 

The same fate awaits IMEC, for a number of very specific reasons.

Map of The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC)

Pivoting to a black void 

The whole IMEC rationale rests on what writer and former Ambassador M.K. Bhadrakumar deliciously described as “conjuring up the Abraham Accords by the incantation of a Saudi-Israeli tango.”

This tango is Dead On Arrival; even the ghost of Piazzolla can’t revive it. For starters, one of the principals – Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman – has made it clear that Riyadh’s priorities are a new, energized Chinese-brokered relationship with Iran, with Turkiye, and with Syria after its return to the Arab League. 

Moreover, both Riyadh and its Emirati IMEC partner share immense trade, commerce, and energy interests with China, so they’re not going to do anything to upset Beijing.

At face value, IMEC proposes a joint drive by G7 and BRICS 11 nations. That’s the western method of seducing eternally-hedging India under Modi and US-allied Saudi Arabia and the UAE to its agenda. 

Its real intention, however, is not only to undermine BRI, but also the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INTSC), in which India is a major player alongside Russia and Iran.  

The game is quite crude and really quite obvious: a transportation corridor conceived to bypass the top three vectors of real Eurasia integration – and BRICS members China, Russia, and Iran – by dangling an enticing Divide and Rule carrot that promises Things That Cannot Be Delivered. 

The American neoliberal obsession at this stage of the New Great Game is, as always, all about Israel. Their goal is to make Haifa port viable and turn it into a key transportation hub between West Asia and Europe. Everything else is subordinated to this Israeli imperative. 

IMEC, in principle, will transit across West Asia to link India to Eastern and Western Europe – selling the fiction that India is a Global Pivot state and a Convergence of Civilizations. 

Nonsense. While India’s great dream is to become a pivot state, its best shot would be via the already up-and-running INTSC, which could open markets to New Delhi from Central Asia to the Caucasus. Otherwise, as a Global Pivot state, Russia is way ahead of India diplomatically, and China is way ahead in trade and connectivity. 

Comparisons between IMEC and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) are futile. IMEC is a joke compared to this BRI flagship project: the $57.7 billion plan to build a railway over 3,000 km long linking Kashgar in Xinjiang to Gwadar in the Arabian Sea, which will connect to other overland BRI corridors heading toward Iran and Turkiye. 

This is a matter of national security for China. So bets can be made that the leadership in Beijing will have some discreet and serious conversations with the current fifth-columnists in power in Islamabad, before or during the Belt and Road Forum, to remind them of the relevant geostrategic, geoeconomic, and investment Facts.

So, what’s left for Indian trade in all of this? Not much. They already use the Suez Canal, a direct, tested route. There’s no incentive to even start contemplating being stuck in black voids across the vast desert expanses surrounding the Persian Gulf. 

One glaring problem, for example, is that almost 1,100 km of tracks are “missing” from the railway from Fujairah in the UAE to Haifa, 745 km “missing” from Jebel Ali in Dubai to Haifa, and 630 km “missing” from the railway from Abu Dhabi to Haifa. 

When all the missing links are added up, there’s over 3,000 km of railway still to be built. The Chinese, of course, can do this for breakfast and on a dime, but they are not part of this game. And there’s no evidence the IMEC gang plans to invite them. 

All eyes on Syunik 

In the War of Transportation Corridors charted in detail for The Cradle in June 2022, it becomes clear that intentions rarely meet reality. These grand projects are all about logistics, logistics, logistics – of course, intertwined with the three other key pillars: energy and energy resources, labor and manufacturing, and market/trade rules. 

Let’s examine a Central Asian example. Russia and three Central Asian “stans” – Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan – are launching a multimodal Southern Transportation Corridor which will bypass Kazakhstan. 

Why? After all, Kazakhstan, alongside Russia, is a key member of both the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). 

The reason is because this new corridor solves two key problems for Russia that arose with the west’s sanctions hysteria. It bypasses the Kazakh border, where everything going to Russia is scrutinized in excruciating detail. And a significant part of the cargo may now be transferred to the Russian port of Astrakhan in the Caspian. 

So Astana, which under western pressure has played a risky hedging game on Russia, may end up losing the status of a full-fledged transport hub in Central Asia and the Caspian Sea region. Kazakhstan is also part of BRI; the Chinese are already very much interested in the potential of this new corridor.    

In the Caucasus, the story is even more complex, and once again, it’s all about Divide and Rule. 

Two months ago, Russia, Iran, and Azerbaijan committed to building a single railway from Iran and its ports in the Persian Gulf through Azerbaijan, to be linked to the Russian-Eastern Europe railway system. 

This is a railway project on the scale of the Trans-Siberian – to connect Eastern Europe with Eastern Africa and South Asia, bypassing the Suez Canal and European ports. The INSTC on steroids, in fact. 

Guess what happened next? A provocation in Nagorno-Karabakh, with the deadly potential of involving not only Armenia and Azerbaijan but also Iran and Turkiye. 

Tehran has been crystal clear on its red lines: it will never allow a defeat of Armenia, with direct participation from Turkiye, which fully supports Azerbaijan.

Add to the incendiary mix are joint military exercises with the US in Armenia – which happens to be a member of the Russian-led CSTO – cast, for public consumption, as one of those seemingly innocent “partnership” NATO programs. 

This all spells out an IMEC subplot bound to undermine INTSC. Both Russia and Iran are fully aware of the former’s endemic weaknesses: political trouble between several participants, those “missing links” of track, and all important infrastructure still to be built. 

Turkish Sultan Recep Tayyip Erdogan, for his part, will never give up the Zangezur corridor across Syunik, the south Armenian province, which was envisaged by the 2020 armistice, linking Azerbaijan to Turkiye via the Azeri enclave of Nakhitchevan – that will run through Armenian territory.

Baku did threaten to attack southern Armenia if the Zangezur corridor was not facilitated by Yerevan. So Syunik is the next big unresolved deal in this riddle. Tehran, it must be noted, will go no holds barred to prevent a Turkish-Israeli-NATO corridor cutting Iran off from Armenia, Georgia, the Black Sea, and Russia. That would be the reality if this NATO-tinted coalition grabs Syunik. 

Today, Erdogan and Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev meet in the Nakhchivan enclave between Turkiye, Armenia, and Iran to start a gas pipeline and open a military production complex.   

The Sultan knows that Zangezur may finally allow Turkiye to be linked to China via a corridor that will transit the Turkic world, in Azerbaijan and the Caspian. This would also allow the collective west to go even bolder on Divide and Rule against Russia and Iran. 

Is the IMEC another far-fetched western fantasy? The place to watch is Syunik.

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of The Cradle.

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