Axis of Resistance’s mission is to defend Palestine: IRGC’s Navy Cmd.

April 9, 2024

Source: Al Mayadeen

The commander of the IRGC’s Navy, Read Admiral Alireza Tangsiri. (Al Mayadeen Net)

By Al Mayadeen English

In an exclusive interview with Al Mayadeen, the Commander of the IRGC’s Navy, Alireza Tangsiri discusses Iran’s development as a world power, the efforts of the Axis of Resistance to champion and defend Gaza, and the fate of “Israel” and its allies.

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Al Mayadeen conducted an interview, which was broadcast on Tuesday, with the commander of the IRGC’s Navy, Admiral Alireza Tangsiri. You can find the full, translated text of the Admiral’s answers below:

I welcome you here, as well as our dear viewers, and welcome to the city of Bandar Abbas and the Strait of Hormuz.

Following the Islamic Revolution’s victory, Washington imposed a complete embargo on Iran, which did not own any material capabilities at the time. Most of our equipment and arsenal were US-made. Later, they would embroil us in an inadequate war against Saddam’s regime, in addition to an abundance of internal conflicts. However, with the grace of God, we managed to persevere and move forward after eight years of war, which prepared us for the upcoming confrontations.

Despite the embargo, sanctions, and economic predicaments Iran was faced with, it was able to advance in multiple military fields, build up its combat strength, manpower, special military training, and manufacture its own equipment.” 

“Right now, we are at a level that allows us to export weapons, including rockets, warships, and radars, to naval forces, defense ministries, and armed forces, and we take pride in this capability, which makes rocket and ship manufacturing possible amid the embargo. We also take pride in the size, speed, assimilation, and resistive characteristics of our home-produced ships, which expedites their abilities throughout maritime battles.” 

“Today, after over 40 years, we have emerged as a world power, and are the primary decision-makers in West Asia, whether it’s derived from the quality of our manufactured equipment or the preparedness of our armed forces. Today, we are proud to say that Iran is at the forefront in regional power, and produces all it needs to defend its sovereignty,” he said. 

On ‘Israel’s’ crushing defeat in Gaza

Speaking on the genocide in Gaza, Tangsiri described “Israel’s” extensive war as “heinous crimes against the oppressed yet brave and resilient Gaza”. 

He revisited the Israeli war objectives from the war and affirmed that the occupation did not manage to achieve a single one.

In detail, the Rear Admiral said:

“They claim three determinants for their success in Gaza:

1. Defeating Hamas, but Hamas is stronger than ever, and sustained fewer losses. 

2. The people’s desperation and hopelessness; but look at the highly spirited people in Gaza, who have lost their homes and their loved ones but remained resilient and faithful. The Zionists failed to break Gaza’s defiant and steadfast spirit. 

3. The swift elimination of Gaza; but the entire world opposes the Zionists today. The “army” that claimed to be the strongest in West Asia, and third strongest in the world, being supported by the US military with aid and developed weapons used in modern wars, employed to kill Gazan children, has failed to achieve victory, whether militarily, politically,  or socially.”

When asked about how such an entity could be fought, Tangsiri stressed the importance of Muslim unity.

“The only way to fight the Zionists is through the formation of an Islamic power and a coalition of Islamic armies. To quote Imam Khomeini, may his soul rest in peace, If every Muslim poured a bucket of water on Israel, it would be washed away. Unfortunately, this isn’t the case. Here, I speak to all Muslim nations that think they would attain greater glory by counting on the Zionists’ friendship. The solution to removing the corruptive and criminal parasite is the unification of all Muslim nations and their armies. If we were united, we could bring an end to it. But this is not what is happening. The Zionists are not only treating Muslims this monstrously but have also shown our Christian brothers and sisters no mercy.

They destroyed churches and massacred Christians in Lebanon. The Zionists are not merciful towards anyone, not even their own supporters.

Unfortunately, the Zionists are striking Muslims with warplanes loaded with fuel supplied by Muslim nations. This is a disgrace, and the solution remains in unity against Zionism to ultimately remove it from existence.”

Iran advocates security in region

Tangsiri also detailed the West’s interests in the region, specifically the United States, and emphasized that Iran has always sought peace and security in the spirit of good neighborliness. However, he did not shy away from condemning the actions Iran’s neighboring countries have undertaken, particularly inviting Zionists into the region. 

During talks with neighboring countries regarding the Strait of Hormuz, our message has always been that of peace and friendliness. Iran suffered under the oppression of a tyrant, so it revolted and offered martyrs in the quest for victory, but since then, we have been faced with the enmity of those same countries, as well as the United States and more. The US Army has now come to the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, but they do not belong in our waters. We previously told our neighbors that the Persian Gulf and Oman’s Sea are national concerns of both them and Iran and that Iran’s security is theirs. We told them the West does not want this region to be stable or secure. The West considers these countries as a “milk cow”, but when the milk runs out, as in oil and gas resources in the region, it would slaughter us.

“Therefore, we have always advocated for the security of the region, and have assured that we can host joint military exercises in the Strait, in collaboration with our brothers from the Persian Gulf’s neighboring countries. We can maintain the region’s peace and security. Our oil and gas terminals are close to those of the neighboring countries. If we really wanted to, we could close these waterways down.

But we do not do this, because as long as we use this waterway and strait, then our neighbors would also have to, and should. But they have to recognize that we will not accept the presence of Zionist supporters in their governments because this is considered a security threat to Iran. We hope they do not make such errors, and reconsider their choices. Should the enemy come and restrain us, and act provocatively in an attempt to incite change in the region, then that is a different issue, to which a different decision would be made, at a later time. 

Zionists in countries neighboring Iran

He revealed that Iran is now the main proponent for security of the region and that of the Hormuz Strait, and the constant traffic of more than 85 tankers carrying oil and gas cargo that safely pass through the strait every day.

However, he revealed that the arrival of the Zionists to the region, and their settlement within countries neighboring Iran, does not speak to peace or good neighborliness.

“Iran has relations with Arab countries, and the seven nations of Oman, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq, but bringing Zionists to our region… We know full well that they do not come for economic purposes or to establish bilateral relations between those countries and the child-killing criminals the world has begun rejecting.”

“What does it mean for a country to take pride in welcoming Zionists to the region?”, he asked. 

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“What are we to understand from such a gesture to us, to a country whose sea spans the entire length of the Persian Gulf, to a country that has beaches in the sea of Oman, to a country with such glory and greatness? Should we not consider this a threat? Is bringing Zionists to a neighboring country not a threat? They should acknowledge that if harm comes in our country’s way, then the place they came from will cease to exist. If they [neighboring countries] were indeed looking for security, then they would know that there is no room for Zionists in the region. 

“I assure you, once again, that we would not attack a Muslim country unless it attacked us… Before the Islamic Revolution’s triumph, Iran had a Ministry of War. Today, we have a Ministry of Defense instead, which signifies that we would not attack any country if we were not attacked or conspired against. Those who choose to conspire and attack us though, will receive a hard blow, just like Saddam and his movement did. 

“Therefore, we do not make threats and do not accept threats. Sometimes, a threat is merely speech. The Zionists’ presence in neighboring countries, which we fully acknowledge is not for economic purposes, but rather military and security ones, is a threat that should not materialize. This is a consideration we should always keep in mind. 

US forces present in our neighbors’ waters

On the role of the US in the region, Tangsiri affirmed that it is but a plot to incite rifts and destabilize the region and its peace. 

The US forces, he stated, are not present in Iran’s waters or territory. However, they are unfortunately present in Iran’s neighbors’ waters, not international ones.

“The United States should realize that the Persian Gulf is not an international sea, but Iran’s and its neighboring countries’. The US does not sail in international waters strait passing through our islands. We are constantly monitoring them, their movements, actions, and behavior. Our naval mission, under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, is to defend our facilities in the Persian Gulf. We believe that if they enter the region, with their nuclear equipment, then the waters would not be viable for use for years after. We would be the ones affected by their presence.

But it is of their nature to create enemies, why? First, for weapons. And for an excuse to sell weapons. If there was no enemy to fight, then the region would not need weapons. Second, to ensure their presence in the region… If they did not claim an enemy was present in the region, then they would not need to remain in it. If they did, then it would be unjustifiable. 

“Therefore, the constant sales of arms and weapons and their illegal presence in the region necessitates their claim of Iran being an enemy to its neighboring countries. If one of these countries gets attacked tomorrow, they will set fire to this land, leave it, and leave us affected. Which is why we should all remain careful and wary.”

The Resistance’s Mission

When asked about the Axis of Resistance, its emergence, and its role in the region, the IRGC commander stated that the Resistance’s mission has always been to champion Palestine and its liberation against “Israel” and its allies. 

“The Axis of Resistance has always responded to threats in defense of the Palestinian people, because their lands are occupied and because Gaza’s resilient people are oppressed. We had never seen a people as resistant as that of Gaza. Countries backing the Zionists should be ashamed of themselves. The US supplied the Zionists with special bombs, which were dropped on women and children in Gaza. France, Britain, and others rushed to back the criminal, dirty, malicious, and child-killing Netanyahu… I do not know, are they really human? Do they call themselves human? A little child in fear, and shaking like that… a torn up child and a mother holding her children… I saw a father holding his martyred children in his hands… These countries are only helping this criminal. I believe the blood of over 14,000 children and women and all those innocents will seek retribution for their sins and will be the reason for “Israel’s” demise and end

Their message was clear: Defend the occupation. And they announced the reason for their presence in the region in the Mediterranean and the Red Sea. If you recall, in the early days of the war, a US aircraft carrier traveled through the Strait of Gibraltar and remained stationed in the Mediterranean. 

What is the message it is carrying? That it intends to defend the Israeli occupation, which marks an eternal disgrace for them [the US]. The United States, in all its might – as it claims – and capabilities, and Britain and its capabilities, as well as France… They all came to murder innocent people. How could they raise their heads high as a moral army? Every army has pride, but it comes from respecting and adhering to the laws of war. But this is not a war. This is a people, in a very small land, surrounded and defenseless. But God is with them, and through Him, they will prevail. 

At the start of this interview, I noted that the Zionists are so far defeated, and have not achieved any of their war objectives. Did they retrieve their captives? No. Did they destroy Hamas? No. Were they able to achieve their goal of victory? No, they did not emerge victorious, defeat Hamas, or release the hostages. So, they lost. It has been six months. And we cannot forget that six Arab Muslim nations did not achieve victory in the six-day war,” the leader reiterated. 

Yemen, Hezbollah role in war

During the interview, Tangsiri was also asked about Yemen and Hezbollah’s role in the war against “Israel”. 

To that, he stated that Hezbollah today is heroic, it is far stronger than it was at the beginning of the war, but until this moment, Hezbollah has not responded to the Zionist enemy, and were it to respond, it would have been an onslaught. Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah had previously announced that Hezbollah’s response would be fierce. Yemen today is much more solid than before, and Iraq and Iraqi Hezbollah are far stronger than before… The Resistance movements that surround the Zionist entity are the more powerful…

He called for trust in the Resistance, saying, “Do not worry about the Resistance; it is today capable of doing everything, and it is far stronger than it was in the earlier days of the war.”

Attack on Iranian consulate

Commenting on the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria, he denounced the deliberate airstrike and highlighted the West’s hypocrisy in that regard. 

According to Tangsiri, this crime did not happen in any other war. Embassies are meant to be safe places and are considered the territory of their respective countries. In that embassy, there were not only military advisors, but also women, children, and men.

“This attack is a crime. First of all, if we had done this, which we would never have, they would have strongly condemned us for committing such a crime. Look at the world, at the Europeans who watch these crimes and support the most corrupt people, and at the US which plays a very democratic and liberating role… We expected the United Nations to confront this crime more firmly, but they paved the way for us to do away with this ugliness.”

He also reaffirmed that Iran intends to respond to “Israel” for its crime.

“As our dear leader said, it will be responded to, but we do not act impulsively or hastily. We are not the kind of people who turn the other cheek after being hit. At the appropriate time, the relevant officials will deliver a strong blow, God willing. At the head of our armed forces is a scholar who knows God, is patient, wise, and rational and logically governs the Iranian armed forces. We act and respond when we see fit. But we will definitely respond, and as the leader said, we will not leave the matter unanswered.

“We are a force ready for battle. We are military men. We are ready for any mission they order us to carry out. Do you expect me to say what we will do? That is not correct. We are 100% ready for any order that may be issued. Today, the naval forces of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps and our heroic army are ready to pluck out the eye of anyone who wants to harm our country and will carry out the orders that may be issued at the appropriate time.”

Western powers have brought in their ships to support the occupation, but the brave Yemenis withstood against them. As our leader said, if Yemen was not under siege, we would have certainly aided it. Yemen today produces its own artillery, missiles, and boats, and is standing strong against the enemies, against the US and Britain, in support of the oppressed people of Palestine and Gaza.

Glorious Yemen

Discussing Yemen’s development as a Resistance power as well, Tangsiri said that after eight years of an imposed and harsh war against the country, Ansar Allah, and the Yemeni Army, it has now reached a level where it can confront great powers such as the United States.

He said that Ansar Allah is manufacturing missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and has established a naval force, despite the embargo and sanctions imposed on the country.

Sayyed Abdul-Malik al-Houthi affirmed that they could target the West’s ships, even if they were in Southern Africa. Today, Tangsiri said, Ansar Allah is targeting ships 600, 700, and even 1,000 kilometers away. Day after day, Ansar Allah keeps developing its capabilities. There are brave men taking control of the force and defending their country. 

He stressed Yemen’s independence from Iran despite being allied and part of the Axis of Resistance, against claims that Resistance factions in the region serve as Iran’s proxies. 

“Yemen is an independent country, and the Resistance is an independent force that was born to crush oppression. Yemen and its Resistance do not wait for our orders, but we are indeed concerned with the Resistance. 

“We love the Palestinians, and we support anyone who takes a stance against oppression and struggles in the fight for the cause. We saw injustice in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and although we did not have common borders with them, and their population included both Muslims and non-Muslims, we helped them and offered them moral support, and never fell short in the help we could offer. We stand with the oppressed. We love and appreciate the men of the Resistance in Yemen, and take pride in them. The Islamic world must take pride in them. They do not need a force that leads them, because they have a leader. Just like Hezbollah has a leader, and Yemen and Iraq have leaders, and they act based on their interests. They have enough wisdom to know when and how to act.”

The Final Message

Before concluding the interview, the IRGC admiral called on Muslim nations, specifically those neighboring Iran, and said ‘Life is fleeting, and if we do not defend those that are oppressed, we will be asked about it on Judgment Day. I am addressing Muslim leaders who own the means of governing. Take the opportunity, because while Christians and followers of other religions protest in solidarity with Gaza, it is a disgrace that Arab countries do not hold such marches and protests.’

I also wish to address the leaders that are fueling the Zionist enemy’s jetplanes… [How can] they take our oil and turn it into fuel for a bomb they drop over the heads of Muslims who say ‘There is no god but God, God is great, and God is sufficient for us’? Are they not the people that are dropping bombs on Gaza’s people? The war will end, and God willing, The people of Gaza will emerge victorious. But what have we offered during this time? 

“We ask God to raise the martyrs of Gaza and the Resistance, whether in our dear Lebanon, dear Iraq, or dear Yemen, to where the prophet of God and his holy Imams rest.”

In his last address to the Al Mayadeen crew conducting the interview, he expressed his thanks, saying “I profoundly thank you, particularly for coming here twice. Forgive us for the warm weather, and perhaps the circumstances were more difficult for you, but we fully know that your cameras are important, and powerful, just like Al Mayadeen. It is the voice of the oppressed, and you represent their voices. God willing, He will note what you have done for the oppressed, and you will hold your heads high before the Resistance’s martyrs and the oppressed people of Gaza.”

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War on Gaza

How Yemen is blocking US hegemony in West Asia

DEC 29, 2023

Source


The new US-led coalition in the Red Sea will struggle to overcome Yemen’s naval blockade on Israel, as Ansarallah’s domestically-produced and inexpensive drones and missiles have leveled the technological playing field.

William Van Wagenen

Given the renewed focus on Yemen’s de facto government led by Ansarallah and its armed forces, it is time to move beyond the simplistic and dismissive characterization of the Houthis as merely a ‘rebel’ group or a non-state actor.

Since the start of the war by the Saudi-led coalition against Ansarallah in 2015, the Yemeni resistance movement has transformed into a formidable military force that has not only humbled Saudi Arabia but is also now challenging Israel’s genocidal actions in Gaza as well as the superior firepower and resources of the US Navy in the world’s most important waterway.

Economic fallout of Yemens naval operations

In response to Israel unleashing unprecedented violence on Gaza, killing over 20,000 people, predominantly women and children, Yemen’s Ansarallah-led armed forces announced on 14 November their intent to target any Israeli-linked ship passing through the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait in the Red Sea. This crucial waterway serves as the gateway to the Suez Canal, through which approximately 10 percent of global trade and 8.8 million barrels of oil travel each day.

On 9 December, Ansarallah announced it would expand its operations further to target any ship in the Red Sea on its way to Israel, regardless of its nationality. “If Gaza does not receive the food and medicine it needs, all ships in the Red Sea bound for Israeli ports, regardless of their nationality, will become a target for our armed forces,” an Ansarallah Armed Forces spokesperson said in a statement.

To date, Ansarallah has successfully targeted nine ships using drones and missiles, and managed to seize one Israeli-affiliated ship in the Red Sea, according to their official statements. These operations have prompted the largest international shipping companies, including CMA CGM and MSC, and oil giants BP and Evergreen, to re-route their Europe bound ships around the horn of Africa, adding 13,000km and significant fuel costs to the journey.

Delays, transit times, and insurance fees for commercial shipping have skyrocketed, threatening to spark inflation worldwide. This is especially worrisome for Israel, which is already contending with the economic repercussions of its longest and deadliest conflict with the Palestinian resistance in history. 

Additionally, Ansarallah has launched multiple missile and drone attacks on Israel’s southern port city of Eilat, decreasing its commercial shipping traffic by 85 percent.

The disruption in the Red Sea directly undermines a key element of the White House’s 2022 National Security Strategy, which unequivocally states that the US will not permit any nation “to jeopardize freedom of navigation through the Middle East’s waterways, including the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab.”

Coalition of the unwilling

On 18 December, in response to Sanaa’s operations, Secretary of State Lloyd Austin declared the establishment of a naval coalition named Operation Prosperity Guardian, with some 20 countries called to counter Yemeni attacks and ensure safe passage of ships through the Red Sea.

Austin announced the new maritime coalition would include, among others, Britain, Canada, France, Italy, Spain, Norway, the Netherlands, the Seychelles, and Bahrain.

Map of the US-led Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) in West Asia and North Africa. 

In response to the announcement, Ansarallah politburo Mohammed al-Bukhaiti vowed that Yemen’s armed forces would not back down:

Yemen awaits the creation of the filthiest coalition in history to engage in the holiest battle in history. How will the countries that rushed to form an international coalition against Yemen to protect the perpetrators of Israeli genocide be perceived?

The embarrassment for Secretary Austin and White House advisor Jake Sullivan was swift. Shortly after the coalition’s announcement, key US allies Saudi Arabia and Egypt declined participation. European allies Denmark, Holland, and Norway provided minimal support, sending only a handful of naval officers.

France agreed to participate but refused to deploy additional ships to the region or place its existing vessel there under US command. Italy and Spain refuted claims of their participation, and eight countries remained anonymous, casting doubt on their existence.

Ansarallah has therefore destroyed another pillar of the White House National Security Strategy, which seeks “to promote regional integration by building political, economic, and security connections between and among US partners, including through integrated air and maritime defense structures.”

Revolutions in naval warfare

The Pentagon plans to defend commercial ships using missile defense systems on US and allied naval carriers deployed to the region.

But the world’s superpower, now largely on its own, does not have the military capacity to counter attacks from war-torn Yemen, the poorest country in West Asia.

This is because the US relies on expensive and difficult to manufacture interceptor missiles to counter the inexpensive and mass-produced drones and missiles that Ansarallah possesses.

Austin made his announcement shortly after the USS Carney destroyer intercepted 14 one-way attack drones on just one day, the 16th of December.

The operation appeared to be a success, but Politico swiftly reported that according to three US Defense Department officials, the cost of countering such attacks “is a growing concern.”

The SM-2 missiles used by the USS Carney cost roughly $2.1 million each, while Ansarallah’s one-way attack drones cost a mere $2,000 each.

This means that to shoot down the $28,000 worth of drones on 16 December, the US spent at least $28 million in just one day.

Ansarallah has now launched more than 100 drone and missile attacks, targeting ten commercial ships from 35 countries, meaning the cost of US interceptor missiles alone has exceeded $200 million.

But cost is not the only limitation. If Ansarallah persists with this strategy, US forces will quickly deplete their interceptor missile stocks, which are needed not only in West Asia but in East Asia as well.

As Fortis Analysis observed, the US has eight guided missile cruisers and destroyers operating in the Mediterranean and Red Seas, with a total of 800 SM-2 and SM-6 interceptor missiles for ship defense between them. Fortis Analysis further notes that production of these missiles is slow, meaning any ongoing campaign to counter Ansarallah will quickly deplete US interceptor missile stocks to dangerously low levels. Meanwhile, the US weapons manufacturer Raytheon can produce less than 50 SM-2 and fewer than 200 SM-6 missiles annually. 

If these stocks are diminished, this leaves the US Navy vulnerable not only in the Red Sea and Mediterranean, where Russia is also active, but also in the Pacific Ocean, where China poses a significant threat with its hypersonic and ballistic missiles.

Fortis Analysis concludes by observing that the longer Ansarallah continues “throwing potshots” at commercial, US Navy, and allied maritime assets, “the worse the calculus gets. Supply chains win wars – and we are losing this critical domain.”

And Ansarallah has not yet tried a drone swarm attack, which would force US ships to counter dozens of incoming threats at one time.

“A swarm could tax the capabilities of a single warship but more importantly, it could mean weapons get past them to hit commercial ships,” Salvatore Mercogliano, a naval expert and professor at Campbell University in North Carolina observed.

Moreover, US warships would also face the question of how to replenish their missile inventory.

USS John Finn and USS Porter missiles capacity

“The only site to reload weapons is at Djibouti (a US base on the Horn of Africa) and that is close to the action,” he said.

Other experts suggest that the ships would either sail to the Mediterranean Sea to reload from US bases in Italy and Greece, or to the Gulf island of Bahrain which holds the Naval Support Activity and is home to US Naval Forces Central Command and United States Fifth Fleet.

The great equalizer

As a result, Abdulghani al-Iryani, a senior researcher at the Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies, described the situation in Yemen as a case where technology acts as a “great equalizer.”

“Your F-15 that costs millions of dollars means nothing because I have my drone that cost a few thousand dollars that will do just as much damage,” he told the New York Times.

While the US military is successful at producing expensive, technologically complex weapons systems that provide excellent profits for the arms industry, such as the F-15 warplanes, it is not capable of producing enough of the weapons needed to actually fight and win real wars on the other side of the world, where supply chains become even more critical.

In Yemen, the US is heavily challenged by the same problem it faced while fighting a proxy war in Ukraine against Russia, which after almost two years, US officials acknowledge is all but lost.

Moscow has the industrial base and the supply chains in place to produce hundreds of thousands of the low-cost, rudimentary 152mm artillery shells – two million annually – needed for success in a multi-year war of attrition fought largely in trenches. The US, quite simply, does not. Washington’s war industrial complex is currently, at best, manufacturing 288,000 shells annually and seeks to manufacture one million shells by the year 2028, still only half of the Russian manufacturing ability.

Additionally, one Russian 152mm artillery round costs $600 dollars according to western experts, whereas it costs a western country $5,000 to $6,000 to produce a comparable 155mm artillery shell.

Enter Iran

The security situation will only get worse for the US should Iran enter the conflict in support of Ansarallah, the signs of which are emerging already.

On 23 December, the US openly accused Iran of targeting commercial vessels for the first time since the start of Israel’s war on Gaza, claiming a Japanese-owned chemical tanker off the coast of India was targeted by a drone “fired from Iran.”

The same day, Tehran denied the allegations but threatened the forced closure of other crucial maritime shipping lanes unless Israel halts its war crimes in Gaza.

“With the continuation of these crimes, America and its allies should expect the emergence of new resistance forces and the closure of other waterways,” Mohammad Reza Naqdi, an official in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), warned.

As a reminder, Iran possesses the largest and most diverse missile arsenal in West Asia, with thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles, some capable of striking Israel.

On 24 December, Iran announced its navy had added “fully smart” cruise missiles, including one with a 1,000km range that can change targets during travel, and another with a range of 100km which can be installed on warships.

With US and Israeli forces already under pressure from the Axis of Resistance forces in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Palestine, and now Yemen, the possible entry of Iran in the conflict is even more ominous for Washington, especially in an election year.

Genocide as a foreign policy

So, how far are President Joe Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and Jake Sullivan willing to go to facilitate Israel’s ongoing carnage in the Gaza Strip?

The trio’s commitment to military aid packages for Israel and Ukraine, despite looming debt concerns, raises questions about their priorities.

The potential risk to the security of the US Navy in the Pacific Ocean may force a re-evaluation of the situation soon. This leaves the US with the option of direct military intervention in Yemen, a course of action with its own ethical and geopolitical consequences.

Recognizing the difficulty of countering Ansarallah from a defensive posture, at least some in the US national security establishment are demanding US forces go on the offensive and strike Yemen directly.

On 28 December, former vice admirals Mark I. Fox and John W. Miller argued that “deterring and degrading” Iran and Ansarallah’s ability to launch these attacks requires striking the forces in Yemen responsible for conducting them, “something no one has yet been willing to do.”

Yemen itself has just emerged from an eight-year, US-backed Saudi and UAE war that led to the worst humanitarian crisis in the world. Both Persian Gulf nations used US bombs to kill tens of thousands of Yemenis, while imposing a blockade and siege that led to hundreds of thousands of additional deaths from hunger and disease.

According to Jeffrey Bachman of the American University, Saudi Arabia and the UAE carried out a “campaign of genocide by a synchronized attack on all aspects of life in Yemen,” which was “only possible with the complicity of the United States and United Kingdom.” And yet Ansarallah emerged stronger militarily from that conflict.

If US support for two genocides in the Arab world are not enough, maybe the third will be the charm.

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of The Cradle.

How Yemen changed everything

DEC 28, 2023

In a single move, Yemen’s Ansarallah has checkmated the west and its rules-based order.

Photo Credit: The Cradle

Pepe Escobar

Whether invented in northern India, eastern China or Central Asia – from Persia to Turkestan – chess is an Asian game. In chess, there always comes a time when a simple pawn is able to upset the whole chessboard, usually via a move in the back rank whose effect simply cannot be calculated. 

Yes, a pawn can impose a seismic checkmate. That’s where we are, geopolitically, right now. 

The cascading effects of a single move on the chessboard – Yemen’s Ansarallah stunning and carefully targeted blockade of the Red Sea – reach way beyond global shipping, supply chains, and The War of Economic Corridors. Not to mention the reduction of the much lauded US Navy force projection to irrelevancy.

Yemen’s resistance movement, Ansarallah, has made it very clear that any Israel-affiliated or Israel-destined vessel will be intercepted. While the west bristles at this, and imagines itself a target, the rest of the world fully understands that all other shipping is free to pass. Russian tankers – as well as Chinese, Iranian, and Global South ships – continue to move undisturbed across the Bab al-Mandeb (narrowest point: 33 km) and the Red Sea. 

Only the Hegemon is disturbed by this challenge to its ‘rules-based order.’ It is outraged that western vessels delivering energy or goods to law-breaking Israel can be impeded, and that the supply chain has been severed and plunged into deep crisis. The pinpointed target is the Israeli economy, which is already bleeding heavily. A single Yemeni move proves to be more efficient than a torrent of imperial sanctions. 

It is the tantalizing possibility of this single move turning into a paradigm shift – with no return – that is adding to the Hegemon’s apoplexy. Especially because imperial humiliation is deeply embedded in the paradigm shift. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin, on the record, is now sending an unmistakeable message: Forget the Suez Canal. The way to go is the Northern Sea Route – which the Chinese, in the framework of the Russia-China strategic partnership, call the Arctic Silk Road.
 

Map of North-East and North-West Passage shipping routes

For the dumbfounded Europeans, the Russians have detailed three options: First, sail 15,000 miles around the Cap of Good Hope. Second, use Russia’s cheaper and faster Northern Sea Route. Third, send the cargo via Russian Railways. 

Rosatom, which oversees the Northern Sea Route, has emphasized that non-ice-class ships are now able to sail throughout summer and autumn, and year-round navigation will soon be possible with the help of a fleet of nuclear icebreakers. 

All that as direct consequences of the single Yemeni move. What next? Yemen entering BRICS+ at the summit in Kazan in late 2024, under the Russian presidency?

The new architecture will be framed in West Asia 

The US-led Armada put together for Operation Genocide Protection, which collapsed even before birth, may have been set up to “warn Iran,” apart from giving Ansarallah a scare. Just as the Houthis, Tehran is hardly intimidated because, as West Asia analyst ace Alastair Crooke succinctly put it: “Sykes-Picot is dead.” 

This is a quantum shift on the chessboard. It means West Asian powers will frame the new regional architecture from now on, not US Navy “projection.” 

That carries an ineffable corollary: those eleven US aircraft carrier task forces, for all practical purposes, are essentially worthless.   

Everyone across West Asia is well aware that Ansarallah’s missiles are capable of hitting Saudi and Emirati oil fields, and knocking them out of commission. So it is little wonder that Riyadh and Abu Dhabi would never accept becoming part of a US-led maritime force to challenge the Yemeni resistance.   

Add to it the role of underwater drones now in the possession of Russia and Iran. Think of fifty of these aimed at a US aircraft carrier: it has no defense. While the Americans still have very advanced submarines, they cannot keep the Bab al-Mandeb and Red Sea open to western operators. 

On the energy front, Moscow and Tehran don’t even need to think – at least not yet – about using the “nuclear” option or cutting off potentially at least 25 percent, and up, of the world oil supply. As one Persian Gulf analyst succinctly describes it, “that would irretrievably implode the international financial system.”

For those still determined to support the genocide in Gaza there have been warnings. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has mentioned it explicitly. Tehran has already called for a total oil and gas embargo against nations that support Israel. 

A total naval blockade of Israel, meticulously engineered, remains a distinct possibility. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Hossein Salami said Israel may “soon face the closure of the Mediterranean Sea, the Strait of Gibraltar, and other waterways.”

Keep in mind we’re not yet even talking about a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz; we’re still on Red Sea/Bab al-Mandeb. 

Because if the Straussian neo-cons in the Beltway get really unhinged by the paradigm shift and act in desperation to “teach a lesson” to Iran, a chokepoint Hormuz-Bab al-Mandeb combo blockade might skyrocket the price of oil to at least $500 a barrel, triggering the implosion of the $618 trillion derivatives market and crashing the entire international banking system. 

The paper tiger is in a jam 

Mao Zedong was right after all: the US may be in fact a paper tiger. Putin, though, is way more careful, cold, and calculating. With this Russian president, it’s all about an asymmetric response, exactly when no one is expecting it.

That brings us to the prime working hypothesis perhaps capable of explaining the shadow play masking the single Ansarallah move on the chessboard.       

When Pulitzer-winning investigative journalist Sy (Seymour) Hersh proved how Team Biden blew up the Nord Stream pipelines, there was no Russian response to what was, in effect, an act of terrorism against Gazprom, against Germany, against the EU, and against a bunch of European companies. Yet Yemen, now, with a simple blockade, turns global shipping upside down. 

So what is more vulnerable? The physical networks of global energy supply (Pipelineistan) or the Thalassocracy, states that derive their power from naval supremacy? 

Russia privileges Pipelineistan: see, for instance, the Nord Streams and Power of Siberia 1 and 2. But the US, the Hegemon, always relied on its thalassocratic power, heir to “Britannia rules the waves.” 

Well, not anymore. And, surprisingly, getting there did not even entail the “nuclear” option, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which Washington games and scaremongers like crazy.

Of course we won’t have a smoking gun. But it’s a fascinating proposition that the single Yemeni move may have been coordinated at the highest level between three BRICS members – Russia, China, and Iran, the neocon new “axis of evil” – plus other two BRICS+, energy powerhouses Saudi Arabia and the UAE. As in, “if you do it, we’ve got your back”. 

None of that, of course, detracts from Yemeni purity: their defense of Palestine is a sacred duty. 

Western imperialism and then turbo-capitalism have always been obsessed with gobbling up Yemen, a process that Isa Blumi, in his splendid book Destroying Yemen, described as “necessarily stripping Yemenis of their historic role as the economic, cultural, spiritual, and political engine for much of the Indian Ocean world.” 

Yemen, though, is unconquerable and, true to a local proverb, “deadly” (Yemen Fataakah). As part of the Axis of Resistance, Yemen’s Ansarallah is now a key actor in a complex Eurasia-wide drama that redefines Heartland connectivity; and alongside China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the India-Iran-Russia-led International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC), and Russia’s new Northern Sea Route, also includes control over strategic chokepoints around the Mediterranean Seas and the Arabian peninsula. 

This is another trade connectivity paradigm entirely, smashing to bits western colonial and neocolonial control of Afro-Eurasia. So yes, BRICS+ supports Yemen, who with a single move has presented Pax Americana with The Mother of All Geopolitical Jams.         

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of The Cradle.

Iran-Russia set a western trap in Palestine

OCT 27, 2023

The only country that could possibly distract the west from Ukraine is Israel. But the US and its allies are walking into an existential trap if they think a West Asian victory will be more easily won than a European one.

Photo Credit: The Cradle

Pepe Escobar

The Russia-Iran strategic partnership – with China in the wings – is laying an elaborate, Sun Tzu-tinged trap for the Hegemon in West Asia. 

Apart from Israel, there is no entity on the planet capable of switching the focus, in a flash, away from the west’s spectacular debacle in Ukraine. 

The warmongers in charge of US foreign policy, not exactly Bismarckian stalwarts, believe that if Project Ukraine is unattainable, Project Final Solution in Palestine could instead be a – ethnic cleansing – cakewalk. 

A more plausible scenario, though is that Iran-Russia – and the new “axis of evil” Russia-China-Iran – have all it takes to drag the Hegemon into a second quagmire. It’s all about using the enemy’s own, discombobulated flip-flapping to unbalance him and disorient him to oblivion.

The White House’s wishful thinking that the Forever Wars in Ukraine and Israel are inscribed in the same lofty “democracy” drive and essential to US national interests, has already backfired – even among American public opinion. 

That does not prevent cries and whispers along the Beltway revealing Israel-allied US neocons increasing the tempo to provoke Iran – via a proverbial false flag that would lead to an American attack. That Armageddon scenario neatly fits Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s biblical psychopathy

Vassals would be forced to meekly comply. NATO heads of state have made a beeline to visit Israel to demonstrate their unconditional support for Tel Aviv – including Greece’s Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, Britain’s Rishi Sunak, Germany’s Olaf Scholz, the senile lodger at the White House, and France’s Emmanuel Macron. 

Avenging the Arab “century of humiliation” 

So far, Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah has shown extraordinary restraint by not taking any bait. Hezbollah supports the Palestinian resistance as a whole – and until a few years back, had serious issues with Hamas, with which it clashed in Syria. Hamas, incidentally, while partially funded by Iran, is not run by Iran. As much as Tehran supports the Palestinian cause, Palestinian resistance groups make their own decisions. 

The big news is that all these issues are now dissolving. Both Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) went to Lebanon to visit Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah in person this week. That spells out unity of purpose – or what the region’s Axis of Resistance calls the “Unity of Fronts.”   

Even more eye-opening was Hamas’ visit to Moscow this week, which was met with impotent Israeli fury. The Hamas delegation was headed by a member of its Politburo, Abu Marzouk. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri came especially from Tehran and met two of Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov’s key deputies, Sergei Ryabkov and Mikhail Galuzin.  

That spells out Hamas, Iran, and Russia negotiating at the same table. 

Hamas has called on the millions of Palestinians in the diaspora, as well as the whole Arab world and all lands of Islam, to unite. Slowly but surely, a pattern may be discerned: could the Arab world – and great swathes of Islam – be on the verge of significantly uniting to avenge their own “century of humiliation” – much as the Chinese did after WWII with Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping? 

Beijing, via its sophisticated diplomacy, is certainly hinting at it to key players, even before the ground-breaking, Russia-China brokered Iran-Saudi rapprochement was struck earlier this year. 

That by itself won’t thwart the perpetual US neocon obsession to bomb critical infrastructure in Iran. Worth less than zero when it comes to military science, these neocons ignore how Iranian retaliation would – accurately – target each and every US base in Iraq and Syria, with the Persian Gulf an open case. 

Peerless Russian military analyst Andrei Martyanov has shown what could happen to those expensive American iron bathtubs in the Eastern Mediterranean in case of an Israeli-threatened attack on Iran.   

Moreover, there are at least 1,000 US troops in northern Syria stealing the country’s oil – which would also become an instant target. 

Ali Fadavi, IRGC’s deputy commander-in-chief, cut to the chase: “We have technologies in the military field that no one knows about, and the Americans will know about them when we use them.”

Cue to Iranian hypersonic Fattah missiles – cousins to the Khinzal and the DF-27 – traveling at Mach 15, and able to reach any target in Israel in 400 seconds.  

And add to it sophisticated Russian electronic warfare (EW). As confirmed in Moscow six months ago, when it comes to military interconnection, the Iranians told the Russians at the same table, “whatever you need, just ask.” The same applies vice-versa, because the mutual enemy is one and the same.

It’s all about the Strait of Hormuz 

The heart of the matter in any Russian-Iran strategy is the Strait of Hormuz, through which transits at least 20 percent of the world’s oil (nearly 17 million barrels a day) plus 18 percent of liquified natural gas (LNG), which amounts to at least 3.5 billion cubic feet a day.  

Iran is able to block the Strait of Hormuz in a flash. For starters, that would be some sort of poetic justice retribution for Israel aiming to gobble up, illegally, all the multibillion-dollar natural gas discovered offshore Gaza: this is, incidentally, one of the absolutely key reasons for the ethnic cleansing of Palestine. 

Yet the real deal will be to bring down the Wall Street-engineered $618 trillion derivative structure, as confirmed for years by analysts at Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, as well as independent Persian Gulf energy traders. 

So when push comes to shove – and way beyond the defense of Palestine and in a scenario of Total War – not only Russia-Iran but key players of the Arab world about to become members of BRICS 11 – such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE – do have what it takes to bring down the US financial system anytime they choose.  

As an old school Deep State higher up, now in business in Central Europe, stresses: 

“The Islamic nations have the economic advantage. They can blow up the international financial system by cutting off the oil. They do not have to fire a single shot. Iran and Saudi Arabia are allying together. The 2008 crisis took 29 trillion dollars to solve but this one, should it happen, could not be solved even with 100 trillion dollars of fiat instruments.”

As Persian Gulf traders told me, one possible scenario is OPEC starting to sanction Europe, first from Kuwait and then spreading from one OPEC country to another and to all countries that are treating the Muslim world as enemies and war fodder. 

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has already warned that oil to western markets could be put off because of what Israel is perpetrating in Gaza. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has already called, on the record, for a total oil and gas embargo by Islamic countries against nations – essentially NATO vassals – that support Israel.

So Christian Zionists in the US allied with neocon asset Netanyahu threatening to attack Iran have the potential to pull down the entire world financial system.

Forever War on Syria, remixed  

Under the current volcano, the Russia-China strategic partnership has been extremely cautious. To the outside world, their mutual official position is to refuse to side with either Palestine or Israel; call for a ceasefire on humanitarian grounds; call for a two-state solution; and respect international law. All their initiatives at the UN have been duly sabotaged by the Hegemon. 

As it stands, Washington has refused the green light for the Israeli ground invasion of Gaza. The main reason is the immediate US priority: buy some time to expand the war to Syria, “accused” of being the key transit point for Iranian weapons to Hezbollah. That also doubles as re-opening the same old war front against Russia. 

There are no illusions in Moscow. The intel apparatus knows well that Israeli Mossad agents have been advising Kiev while Tel Aviv was supplying weapons to Ukraine under serious US pressure.  That infuriated the siloviki, and may have constituted a fatal Israeli mistake.

The neocons, for their part, never stop. They are advancing a parallel threat: if Hezbollah attacks Israel with something else than a few sparse rockets – and that simply won’t happen – the Hmeimim Russian Air Base in Latakia will be “eliminated” as a “warning” to Iran.

This does not even qualify as children playing in the sandbox. After the serial Israeli attacks on the civilian Damascus and Aleppo airports, Moscow did not even blink before offering its Hmeimim facilities to Syria – complete with clearance for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) cargo flights, according to some Russian intel sources. Netanyahu will not exactly harbor a death wish by bombing a fully A2/AD (anti-access/area denial) Russian Air Base.  

Moscow also clearly sees what those expensive American iron bathtubs in the Eastern Mediterranean might be up to. The response has been swift: Mig-31Ks are patrolling neutral air space over the Black Sea 24/7, equipped with hypersonic Khinzals, which would take only six minutes to visit the Mediterranean.   

Amidst all this neocon-drenched madness, with the Pentagon deploying a formidable array of weaponry plus “undisclosed” assets to the Eastern Mediterranean, whether the target is Hezbollah, Syria, Iran, Russia, or all of the above, both China and North Korea – part of the new American-concocted “axis of evil” – have indicated they will not be mere bystanders. 

The Chinese Navy is for all practical purposes shielding Iran from a distance. Yet even more forceful has been a statement by Premier Li Qiang – something unusually blunt and rare in Chinese diplomacy: 

“China will continue to firmly support Iran in safeguarding its national sovereignty, territorial integrity, and national dignity, and will strongly oppose any external forces interfering in Iran’s internal affairs.”

Never forget that China and Iran are linked by a comprehensive strategic partnership. Meanwhile, Russian Premier Mikhail Mishustin has reinforced the Russia-Iran strategic partnership in a meeting with Iran’s First Vice-President Mohammad Mokhber.

Remember those rice eaters from Korea 

Pro-Iran militias across the Axis of Resistance, are keeping a carefully tempered degree of confrontation against Israel, close to guerrilla hit-and-run. They won’t be engaged in massive attacks yet. But all bets are off if Israel invades Gaza. It’s clear the Arab world, for all its massive internal contradictions, will simply not tolerate the civilian massacre. 

Bluntly, at the current incendiary juncture, the Hegemon has found the offramp from its Project Ukraine humiliation. They erroneously believe that the same old Forever War rekindled in West Asia can be “modulated” at will. And if two wars turn into an immense political albatross, as they will, what else is new? They will simply start a new war in the “Indo-Pacific.” 

None of that fools Russia-Iran and their ice-cold monitoring of the flipping and flapping Hegemon every step of the way. It’s enlightening to remember what Malcolm X was already predicting in 1964:

“Some rice eaters ran him out of Korea. Yes, they ran him out of Korea. Rice eaters with nothing but gym shoes, and a rifle, and a bowl of rice took him and his tanks and his napalm, and all that other action he’s supposed to have and ran him across the Yalu. Why? Cause the day that he can win on the ground has passed.” 

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of The Cradle.

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Why US oil firms are too afraid to unload seized Iranian oil: WSJ

19 Jul 2023

Source: The Wall Street Journal

An Iranian flag flutters on board the Adrian Darya oil tanker, formerly known as Grace 1, off the coast of Gibraltar on August 18, 2019. (AP)

By Al Mayadeen English

Analysts believe that Iran’s alleged ramped-up seizing of ships and bold maritime activities are payback for Western oil seizures and a blatant failure of US sanctions on Tehran.

According to individuals familiar with the situation, US federal prosecutors are unable to sell nearly 800,000 barrels of seized Iranian oil lying aboard a Greek ship off the coast of Texas, a report by The Wall Street Journal revealed. 

Although the coast guard has certified the ship for unloading, the firms that execute those transfers, known as lightering, are too concerned about Iranian retaliation to handle the seized oil.

In April, the US seized the Iranian oil tanker Suez Rajan just days before Tehran detained a tanker carrying American cargo in the Gulf of Oman.

A Houston-based energy executive entangled in the situation admitted that companies “are literally afraid to do it.” According to him, numerous companies that were contacted rejected the offer to unload the oil. 

Another executive wondered “if anybody’s going to touch it.”

The standoff over the stolen oil highlights the failure of the US administration in implementing sanctions against Iran, as Tehran has allegedly become bolder, according to the report, in its maritime expeditions, including the Iranian Navy’s plans to establish a new naval coalition with Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain. and Iraq. 

A former US official believes that the current situation represents “a much bigger drama that’s playing out about how we deal with Iranian threats.”

A week ago, the Naval Forces of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps announced that its forces seized a foreign oil tanker carrying one million liters of smuggled oil.

On July 6, the forces of the IRGC 2nd Naval District inspected Nada II-a Tanzania-flagged chemical tanker carrying smuggled fuel.

Brigadier General Ramezan Zirahi recalled that the Americans were forced back in November 2021, during a complex operation in the Sea of Oman, to flee the area “humiliated” with 5 military frigates, a number of fighters, helicopters, and manned and unmanned aircraft.

Read more: Iran Navy blocks US aircraft from entering airspace

Retaliation to Western oil seizures

Some analysts believe that the recent escalated confiscations of smuggled oil are in retaliation to Western oil seizures.

According to US sources, the Pentagon is deploying F-35 fighter jets and a Navy destroyer to the Middle East to prevent Iran from allegedly attempting to hijack oil tankers and to respond to what the US dubbed “Russian aggression” in the region.

An Iranian representative to the United Nations expressed that Iran rejects the allegations made by the US, stressing that Tehran “insists on the security and stability of the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. However, if oil tankers violate harmless passage, pollute the environment, or smuggle Iranian fuel, Iran does not hesitate to address those irregularities and infringements based on its laws as well as relevant international obligations.”

Iranian state media cited Tehran authorities as saying the Advantage Sweet was detained after it collided with a fishing boat. The owners of the ship did not respond to comment requests. 

Mark Wallace, the chief executive of UANI – the United Against Nuclear Iran nonprofit organization – warned that the US would not be able to enforce “oil smuggling sanctions” if the industry was too afraid of Iran.

Sources say the owner sent the tanker to the Texas refinery hub as part of a plea deal, while the Justice Department refused to corroborate that information or explain the delay in unloading the oil. 

The State Department declined to comment on the Suez Rajan but stated that penalties are being enforced.

Federal prosecutors and security officials are currently disclosing such seizures as warning to anyone who assists Iran in evading sanctions.

A former US official called the situation “unusual”, adding that it was a “mystery” why the tanker has been stationed off the coast for that many weeks.

Last year, the US ordered the seizing of an oil tanker flying an Iranian flag near Greece, while the cargo was stolen and sent to the US through another ship while its owner was charged with evading sanctions.

Tehran later detained two Greek tankers for violating maritime international laws but later released them after several months of investigations.

Raisi in Beijing: Iran-China strategic plans go full throttle

February 17 2023

Raisi’s visit to Beijing, the first for an Iranian president in 20 years, represents Tehran’s wholesale ‘Pivot to the East’ and China’s recognition of Iran’s centrality to its BRI plans.

Photo credit: The Cradle

By Pepe Escobar

The visit of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to Beijing and his face-to- face meeting with counterpart Xi Jinping is a groundbreaking affair in more ways than one.

Raisi, the first Iranian president to officially visit China in 20 years, led an ultra high-level political and economic delegation, which included the new Central Bank governor and the Ministers of Economy, Oil, Foreign Affairs, and Trade.

The fact that Raisi and Xi jointly supervised the signing of 20 bilateral cooperation agreements ranging from agriculture, trade, tourism and environmental protection to health, disaster relief, culture and sports, is not even the major take away.

This week’s ceremonial sealing of the Iran-China comprehensive strategic partnership marks a key evolution in the multipolarity sphere: two Sovereigns – both also linked by strategic partnerships with Russia – imprinting to their domestic audiences and also to the Global South their vision of a more equitable, fair and sustainable 21st century which completely bypasses western dictates.

Beijing and Tehran first established their comprehensive strategic partnership when Xi visited Iran in 2016 – only one year after the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or Iranian nuclear deal.

In 2021, Beijing and Tehran signed a 25-year cooperation deal which translated the comprehensive partnership into practical economic and cultural developments in several fields, especially energy, trade and infrastructure. By then, not only Iran (for decades) but also China were being targeted by unilateral US sanctions.

Here is a relatively independent analysis of the challenges and prospects of the 25-year deal. And here is an enlightening perspective from neighboring Pakistan, also a strategic partner of China.

Iran: gotta modernize everything

Beijing and Tehran are already actively cooperating in the construction of selected lines of Tehran’s subway, the Tehran-Isfahan high-speed railway, and of course joint energy projects. Chinese tech giant Huawei is set to help Tehran to build a framework for a 5G telecom network.

Raisi and Xi, predictably, stressed increased joint coordination at the UN and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), of which Iran is the newest member, as well as a new drive along the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

While there was no explicit mention of it, underlying all these initiatives is the de-dollarization of trade – in the framework of the SCO but also the multipolar BRICS group of states. Iran is set to become one of the new members of BRICS+, a giant step to be decided in their upcoming summit in South Africa next August.

There are estimates in Tehran that Iran-China annual trade may reach over $70 billion in the mid-term, which will amount to triple the current figures.

When it comes to infrastructure building, Iran is a key BRI partner. The geostrategy of course is hard to match: a 2,250 km coastline encompassing the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Sea of Oman and the Caspian Sea – and huge land borders with Iraq, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Every think tank in China sees how Iran is irreplaceable, not only in terms of BRI land corridors, but also the Maritime Silk Road.

Chabahar Port may be a prime Iran-India affair, as part of the International North South Transportation Corridor (INSTC) – thus directly linked to the Indian vision of a Silk Road, extending to Central Asia.

But Chinese port developers do have other ideas, focused on alternative ports along the Persian Gulf and in the Caspian Sea. That will boost shipping connections to Central Asia (Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan), Russia and the Caucasus (Azerbaijan).

And that makes perfect sense when one combines port terminal development with the modernization of Iran’s railways – all the way to high-speed rail.

An even more revolutionary development would be China coordinating the BRI connection of an Iranian corridor with the already in progress 3,200 km-long China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), from Kashgar in Xinjiang to Gwadar port in the Indian Ocean.

That seemed perfectly plausible when Pakistani Prime Minister  Imran Khan was still in power, before being ousted by a lawfare coup. The key of the whole enterprise is to build badly needed infrastructure in Balochistan, on both sides of the border. On the Pakistani side, that would go a long way to smash CIA-fed “insurgents” of the Balochistan Liberation Army kind, get rid of unemployment, and put trade in charge of economic development.

Afghanistan of course enters the equation – in the form of a China-Afghan-Iran corridor linked to CPEC. Since September 2021, Beijing has explained to the Taliban, in detail, how they may profit from an infrastructure corridor – complete with railway, highway and pipeline – from Xinjiang, across the Wakhan corridor in eastern Afghanistan, through the Hindu Kush, all the way to Iran.

The core of multipolarity

Iran is perfectly positioned for a Chinese-propelled boom in high-speed cargo rail, connecting Iran to most of Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan).

That means, in practice, cool connectivity with a major logistics cluster: the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) of Khorgos, only 330 km from Almaty on the Kazakh-China border, and only four hours from Urumqi, Xinjiang’s capital.

If China pulls that off, it would be a sort of BRI Holy Grail, interconnecting China and Iran via Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Nothing less than several corridors in one.

All that is about to happen as the Islamic Revolution in Iran celebrates its 44th year.

What is already happening now, geopolitically, and fully recognized by China, might be defined as the full rejection of an absurdity: the collective west treating Iran as a pariah or at best a subjugated neo-colony.

With the diverse strands of the Resistance embedded in the Islamic Revolution finally consolidated, it looks like history is finally propelling Iran as one of the key poles of the most complex process at work in the 21st century: Eurasia integration.

So 44 years after the Islamic Revolution, Iran enjoys strategic partnerships with the three top BRICS: China, Russia and India.

Likely to become one of the first new members of BRICS+, Iran is the first West Asian state to become a full member of the SCO, and is clinching a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

Iran is a major strategic partner of both BRI, led by China, and the INSTC, alongside Russia and India.

With the JCPOA all but dead, and all western “promises” lying in the dust, Tehran is consolidating its pivot back to the East at breakneck speed.

What Raisi and Xi sealed in Beijing heralds Chinese pre-eminence all across West Asia – keenly perceived in Beijing as a natural consequence of recognizing and honoring Iran’s regional centrality.

Iran’s “Look East” strategy could not be more compatible with BRI – as an array of BRI projects will accelerate Iran’s economic development and consolidate its inescapable role when it comes to trade corridors and as an energy provider.

During the 1980s Tehran was ruled by a “Neither East nor West” strategy – faithful to the tenets of the Islamic Revolution. That has now evolved, pragmatically, into “Look East.” Tehran did try to “Look West” in good faith, but what the US government did with the JCPOA – from its murder to “maximum pressure” to its aborted resuscitation – was quite a historical lesson.

What Raisi and Xi have just demonstrated in Beijing is the Sovereign way forward. The three leaders of Eurasia integration – China, Russia and Iran – are fast on their way to consolidate the core of multipolarity.    

The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of The Cradle.

Closing of Strait of Hormuz on Iran Parliament Agenda

January 23, 2023

By Staff, Agencies

A member of the Iranian Parliament said the restriction of the traffic of European commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz is on agenda as a countermeasure against the European Parliament’s anti-Iran measure.

The European Parliament on Wednesday adopted an amendment calling on the EU and its member states to include the IRG in their terror list. It also passed another resolution on Thursday, calling for more sanctions against Iranian individuals and entities and putting the IRG on the EU terrorist list over alleged human rights violations during the recent riots.

Mohammad Hassan Asfari, Vice Chairman of the Internal Affairs and Councils Commission in the Parliament, said on Monday that such actions of Europe have no other output except that they create pessimism among the Iranian people.

“We will definitely not remain silent either. Closing the Strait of Hormuz is on the agenda of the parliament,” he underlined as another countermeasure against the European Parliament’s call for the designation of the Islamic Revolution Guard [IRG] as a terrorist organization.

“If the Europeans are going to treat our armed forces and official forces like this [terrorists], we will also put other options on the table, including restricting the traffic of European commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz in the form of an urgent plan in the parliament,” Asfari noted. “It is better for the Europeans to cancel their decision before it is too late.”

Speaking on the sidelines of a closed session of the parliament on Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said that “everything would be possible” if a number of European political leaders, who he called “inexperienced in diplomacy,” do not change course and rectify their mistakes.

He also said that Iran can withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons [NPT] and discharge the inspectors of the UN nuclear agency.

The majority of Iranian lawmakers also censured the European Parliament’s “wrong” decision, which they said was politically motivated and based on false information and misjudgments.

It is clear that Iran’s enemies, having failed to spread insecurity inside the country, now resort to such baseless measures in an attempt to exert political and media pressure on the Islamic Republic, the MPs said.

البحر الأبيض المتوسط وفرص إضعاف الحصار على لبنان وغزَّة

22:09  الجمعة 14 تشرين الأول 2022

البحر الأبيض المتوسط وفرص إضعاف الحصار على لبنان وغزَّة

عمرو علان 

من المعلوم أن عمليات الإعداد وتطوير القدرات التسليحية للقوى العسكرية لا تكون بطريقة اعتباطية.

رغم دخول الحروب العصرية مرحلة “حروب الجيل الخامس”، بحسب تقديرات البعض، والحديث المتزايد عن دور الذكاء الاصطناعي في حروب المستقبل، بما يوحي أحياناً بأنَّ الحرب باتت مختلفة في الجوهر عن حروب الحقب الماضية، فإنَّ واقع الحال يشير إلى عدم تبدُّل الأهداف الإستراتيجية للنزاعات الدولية كثيراً، فتأمين مصادر الطاقة والسيطرة على ممرات النقل، لا سيما البحرية منها، ما زال يؤدي دوراً حاسماً في صعود القوى الدولية وهبوطها.

لذلك، خلال المرحلة الدولية الراهنة التي يتم فيها رسم معالم نظام عالمي جديد، ويترتب على نتيجة مسار الأحداث فيها صعود حضارات وهبوط أخرى، نجد أنَّ القوى الدولية الكبرى، وتلك الإقليمية الفاعلة، تولي عملية التحكّم في المضائق والممرات المائية الحيوية اهتماماً خاصاً، كمضيقي هرمز وباب المندب، وبحري آزوف والأبيض المتوسط، ولا يبدو أنَّ تبدُّلاً حقيقياً سيطرأ على هذه الأهداف الإستراتيجية للنزاعات الدوليَّة قبل أن تصل الحضارة الإنسانية إلى مستوى “النوع الأول” من الحضارات على “مقياس كارداشيف لتصنيف الحضارات”، وقبل أن تقطع شوطاً معتبراً فيه على أقل تقدير، وذلك لن يتحقق إلا لقرون قادمة.

من هنا، نلحظ أن خيار تطوير القدرات الهجومية العسكرية البحرية التي أولتها دول “محور المقاومة” وحركاته اهتماماً ملموساً في السنوات الأخيرة ضمن تكتيكاتها القتالية بات يعطي مفاعيله في عمليات رسم معادلات الحرب وتحقيق المكاسب الميدانية. 

وقد تجلى ذلك في عدَّة محطات مهمة خلال الأعوام الماضية. مثلاً، كانت قدرات إيران العسكرية البحرية قد شكَّلت إحدى وسائل الردع الفعَّالة التي اعتمدتها في مواجهة الولايات المتحدة الأميركية، لثنيها عن الإقدام على عدوان عسكري عليها، إذ كان باستطاعة إيران في تلك الحالة تعطيل حركة الملاحة عبر مضيق هرمز؛ ذلك الممر المائي الحيوي الذي يمر عبره ما يزيد على 20% من صادرات موارد الطاقة الأحفورية في العالم.

وفي محطة مهمة أخرى، نجد أنَّ التنافس على السيطرة على مضيق “باب المندب” يعد واحداً من الخلفيات الرئيسة للحرب التي تشنها السعودية على اليمن. لذلك، كان من ضمن إستراتيجية صنعاء العسكرية تطوير قدرات بحرية هجومية مؤثرة يمكن الاعتماد عليها في التأثير في حركة الملاحة البحرية في باب المندب والبحر الأحمر.

أما في لبنان، وفي محطة ترسيم الحدود البحرية مع العدو، وسعي الدولة اللبنانية لفرض حقّها في استخراج الغاز الطبيعي من حقول شرقي المتوسط واستثماره، نجد أنَّ قدرات حزب الله البحرية الهجومية كان لها الدور الحاسم في حصول الدولة اللبنانية على مسودة تفاهم حول ترسيم الحدود البحرية مع العدو، وحول حقّه في استخراج موارده الغازية واستثمارها، بصرف النظر عن الجدل القائم حول إذا ما كانت تلك المسودة قد أعطت للبنان كامل حقوقه.

 ما يهم في هذا المقام، بعيداً من النقاش الدائر حول خطوط الترسيم البحرية اللبنانية: الخط 29، والخط 23، وخط “فريدريك هوف”، والخط “الإسرائيلي” رقم 1 البري، بعيداً من هذا النقاش، على أهميته ووجاهته، يبقى واقع الحال أن الكيان الموقّت ما كان ليعطي لبنان أياً من حقوقه لولا تلويح حزب الله بقدراته البحرية العسكرية.

ولولا إمكانات حزب الله البحرية العسكرية تلك، القادرة على استهداف مصادر استخراج الطاقة في شرقي المتوسط، والقادرة على عرقلة حركة نقل الطاقة عبر البحر الأبيض المتوسط أيضاً، ما كان الأميركي في وارد السماح للبنان بالاستفادة من ثرواته من الغاز الطبيعي، بما يتضمَّنه ذلك من ضرب لأساسات سياسة الحصار غير المعلن التي ينتهجها الأميركي ضد لبنان منذ حين.

إذاً، بناءً على الوقائع السالفة الذكر، يمكن أن نخلص إلى أنَّ الجهد الذي صرفته دول وحركات المقاومة على تعزيز قدراتها البحرية العسكرية وحسن توظيف تلك القدرات تكتيكياً في الميدان أثمر نتائج ملموسةً في مصلحتها، وحقّق لها مكاسب ميدانيةً وسياسيةً، ولا سيما في الحالة اللبنانية. وبناءً على هذه الخلاصة، يبرز تساؤلٌ عما إذا كان من الممكن لفصائل المقاومة الفلسطينية الاستفادة من هذه التجارب في فك الحصار المفروض على غزة.

بدايةً، من المعلوم أن عمليات الإعداد وتطوير القدرات التسليحية للقوى العسكرية لا تكون بطريقة اعتباطية، بل تكون استجابةً للإستراتيجيات والتكتيكات العسكرية المرسومة، وضمن الإمكانات المتاحة وظروف الميدان؛ فمن خلال تتبع مسيرة دول “محور المقاومة” وحركاتها نجد أنها عملت منذ البدايات على توظيف سلاح “صواريخ أرض أرض” بطريقة مميزة، بهدف التغلب على معضلة التفوق الجوي الكاسح لمصلحة العدو. وقد كان ذلك ضمن إستراتيجية “الحرب غير المتكافئة” الشاملة التي اعتمدتها قوى المقاومة في مواجهة الأعداء عموماً.

وقد تم تعميم تجربة “صواريخ أرض أرض” بعد نجاحها في جنوب لبنان إبان الاحتلال الإسرائيلي، فصارت إيران بعد ذلك من أكبر القوى الإقليمية من ناحية قدراتها الصاروخية، وباتت فصائل المقاومة الفلسطينية في غزَّة تتمتع بقدرة صاروخية يحسب لها الحساب، إذ استنسخت تكتيكات إطلاق الصواريخ من منصات مخفية وتحت الأرض.

وعقب حرب لبنان في تموز/يوليو 2006، التي اختبر فيها حزب الله بنجاح باهر تكتيكات ميدانية ضد سلاح المدرّعات الإسرائيلي، وذلك باستخدام سلاح “كورنيت” الروسي المضاد للدروع، اتخذ قائد حرس الثورة الإسلامية آنذاك، الشهيد اللواء قاسم سليماني، قراراً بنقل تلك التجربة إلى فصائل المقاومة الفلسطينية في غزة، بالتعاون مع كل من حزب الله والدولة السورية التي زودت القطاع بهذا النوع من السلاح من مخزون الجيش العربي السوري في ذلك الوقت. وقد كان لتكتيك استخدام سلاح “كورنيت” في القطاع دورٌ أساسيٌ في تحديد نتائج حروب غزَّة اللاحقة.

أما راهناً، وفي ظلِّ التوتر الدولي القائم حول الطاقة، وحول الممرات البحرية لنقلها، وارتفاع أهمية أسلحة البحر الهجومية بناءً على ذلك التوتر، ربما بات من المجدي أن تبدأ فصائل المقاومة الفلسطينيّة، وبالتعاون مع أركان “محور المقاومة”، بتسخير الموارد من أجل تعزيز قدرات القطاع البحرية العسكريّة، سواء بالعتاد المطلوب أو بالتقنيات اللازمة لتصنيع العتاد المناسب؛ فإذا كان “محور المقاومة” قد نجح في هذه العملية في اليمن، فلا بد من وجود إمكانية لتكرار الأمر في غزة.

ويدور الحديث هنا بالنسبة إلى غزَّة عن خطة متوسطة المدى أو قصيرة المدى في أفضل الأحوال، بحسب ظروف الميدان، إلا إذا كانت غزَّة قد تسلَّحت بالفعل على هذا الصعيد، مع العلم بأن لا مؤشرات تدل على هذا الأمر.

في كلِّ الأحوال، لا يجوز إهمال أمرين مفصليين عند التفكير في تكتيك استخدام البحر كوسيلة لتخفيف الحصار عن غزة، قياساً على تجربة حزب الله الأخيرة في لبنان. أولاً، لا يجوز بحال تجاهل حقيقة أنَّ حساب “موازين القوى” يختلف إلى حد بعيد من عدة أوجه بين الساحتين اللبنانية والفلسطينية.

لا ينسحب هذا على صعيد قدرة حزب الله التسليحية المتفوقة نوعاً وكماً فحسب، والفروق في طبيعة الميدان التي تتيح للحزب هامشاً أعظم في المناورة، واستفادة الحزب من خطوط إمداد فعالة، لكن أيضاً يجب أن يوضع بالاعتبار، عند حساب “موازين القوى”، حساسية ساحة فلسطين بالنسبة إلى الاحتلال مقارنةً بأي ساحة “معادية” أخرى، فسقف المعادلات التي يمكن إرغام الإسرائيلي على تجرُّعها من دون الدخول في جولة حرب قاسية يعد أعلى من السقف الذي يمكنه قبوله في فلسطين من دون الدخول في حرب يكون من شأنها تبديل التوازنات القائمة بصورة جوهرية.

وبناءً عليه، يمكن القول إنَّ المراهنة على السلاح البحري الهجومي وحده تعد مراهنةً واقعيةً، إذا ما كان الهدف هو تخفيف الحصار، لا إنهاءه بشكل كلِّي عن القطاع، مع أنَّ تخفيف الحصار، الذي يمكن لفصائل المقاومة في غزَّة تحقيقه في هذه الحال، وضمن الظروف الإقليمية والدولية الراهنة، قابلٌ لأن يكون تخفيفاً حقيقياً وذا آثار ملموسة على حياة سكان القطاع.

أما الأمر الثاني، فهو أنه لا يجوز بأي حال أن يتحول تكتيك تطوير السلاح البحري الهجومي في غزَّة إلى بديل من تكتيك المقاومة في تفعيل العمل المقاوم في الضفة، فساحة الضفة لا تزال تحظى بموقع الصدارة من الناحية الإستراتيجية في مشروع التحرير المركزي، ناهيك بأنه ضمن ظروف العدو الموضوعية المستجدة، وضمن تراجع القبضة الأمنية لسلطة “التنسيق الأمني” في رام الله، إضافة إلى الظروف الإقليمية والدولية الراهنة المحيطة، بات من الممكن لساحة الضفة تحقيق إنجاز يفوق بكثير أي إنجاز يمكن لساحة غزَّة تحقيقه على مستوى المشروع الوطني.

ختاماً، يفتح الاشتباك العالمي الدائر بين الدول العظمى آفاقاً جديدةً أمام فصائل المقاومة الفلسطينية، بما يجعل فرص تخفيف مفاعيل الحصار المفروض على غزَّة بصورة ملموسة أكثر واقعيةً، وذلك عبر المناورة على عقدة الطاقة والممرات المائية، لكن يبقى إنهاء الحصار عن غزَّة بصورة كلية أمراً يلزمه تغيير في “موازين القوى” الحاكمة حالياً، والطريق الأقصر لذلك، والأكثر جدوى وطنياً وإستراتيجياً، يمر عبر تصعيد الفعل المقاوم في الضفة، وتحويل المقاومة فيها إلى حال يحاكي مقاومة غزة، وهذا بات أمراً متاحاً ضمن المستجدات الفلسطينية والإقليمية.

آفاق استراتيجية واشنطن في المنطقة على ضوء تراجع النفوذ الأميركي

حسن حردان

يرى الكثير من المحللين والمراقبين في المنطقة والعالم أنّ الهروب الأميركي المذلّ من أفغانستان، سوف يعجل بخروج أميركا من المنطقة، لمصلحة تركيزها على الشرق الأقصى في مواجهة تنامي النفوذ الصيني في شرق آسيا والعالم…

وإذا كان من المنتظر ان يعقب الخروج الأميركي من أفغانستان، انسحاب أميركا من سورية ومن ثم العراق، لا سيما بعد توارد أنباء تفكيك واشنطن ثلاث قواعد عسكرية لها في شمال شرق سورية من ناحية، وتواتر عمليات المقاومة الوطنية العراقية والسورية ضدّ أرتال القوات الأميركية في العراق والقاعدة الأميركية في ريف دير الزور من ناحية ثانية…

فإنّ من الطبيعي أن يُطرح السؤال الكبير، حول مستقبل النفوذ الاستعماري الأميركي في باقي دول المنطقة، وأمن كيان الاحتلال الصهيوني، خصوصاً أنّ الانسحاب من سورية والعراق سوف يؤدّي إلى تداعيات سلبية على الدول الموالية لواشنطن وعلى أمن ووجود الكيان الصهيوني…

هل انّ واشنطن سوف تنسحب من كامل دول المنطقة، وتترك كيان العدو الصهيوني يواجه تداعيات هذا الانسحاب والتبدّل الذي سيحدثه في موازين القوى لمصلحة حلف المقاومة الذي أصبح يحاصر كيان الاحتلال؟

الجواب الأكيد هو أنّ واشنطن لن تنسحب نهائياً من المنطقة، لعدة أسباب:

السبب الأول، حاجتها لحماية مصالحها الاستعمارية المتمثلة بالنفط والغاز، وهي تشكل أساس وجودها العسكري والأمني، وطالما انّ هناك نفطاً وغازاً يشكلان شريان الاقتصاد العالمي وعصب هذا الاقتصاد فإنّ أميركا ستبقي على جزء من قواتها وقواعدها لحراسة هذه المصالح.

السبب الثاني حماية خطوط إمداد النفط والغاز التي تعبر المضائق والبحار من الخليج ومروراً بمضيق هرمز ومضيق باب المندب، وقناة السويس، ووصولاً إلى الدول الصناعية الكبرى.

السبب الثالث، حماية أمن ووجود كيان الاحتلال الصهيوني الذي يشكل ركيزة أميركا الاستعمارية الأساسية في قلب الوطن العربي، فهذا الكيان زرع من قبل الاستعمار لأجل تقسيم وتجزئة الوطن العربي، وضمان استمرار نهب الشركات الأميركية الغربية للنفط والغاز في العالم العربي.

لكن تراجع الحضور العسكري الأميركي وتنامي قوة حلف المقاومة، سيحدث خللاً في موازين القوى، يجبر أميركا على اعتماد سياسات لتحديد خسائرها والحدّ من تراجع نفوذها، طالما أنها لم تعد قادر على شنّ حروب عسكرية مكلفة لها وتتجاوز قدراتها…

ولهذا يتوقع ان تلجأ واشنطن إلى وضع استراتيجية تقوم على البراغماتية هدفها الحدّ من تراجع نفوذها، وحماية مصالحها، وقوام هذه الاستراتيجية المتوقعة ما يلي:

أولاً، العودة إلى الاتفاق النووي من دون ايّ تعديل، ورفع العقوبات عن إيران، بعد أن تستنفذ واشنطن محاولات إدخال تعديلات على الاتفاق واستثناء بعض العقوبات، لكن من دون جدوى…

ثانياً، دفع الدول الحليفة والموالية لأميركا لتجاوز خلافاتها وتوحيد صفوفها بما يجعلها قادرة على مواجهة حلف المقاومة بعد تراجع النفوذ الأميركي.. وهو ما بدأت المباشرة به هذه الدول بإيعاز أميركي.

ثالثاً، العمل على إقناع المسؤولين «الإسرائيليين» لأجل العودة لإحياء المفاوضات مع السلطة الفلسطينية على أساس حلّ الدولتين باعتبار ذلك هو الضمانة الإستراتيجية لتحقيق أمن واستقرار الكيان «الإسرائيلي» على المدى البعيد، لأنّ البديل عن ذلك مواجهة الكيان الصهيوني مقاومة فلسطينية تزداد قوة وقدرة وعزيمة، مدعومة من حلف المقاومة الخارج منتصراً من مواجهة حروب أميركا المباشرة وغير المباشرة…

Iran’s Top Commander: Vigilant Air Defense Force Not to Allow Any Aggression

August 12, 2021

Iran’s Top Commander: Vigilant Air Defense Force Not to Allow Any Aggression

By Staff, Agencies 

Iran’s Air Defense Forces Commander, Brigadier General Alireza Sabahi Fard, confirmed that his forces   is keeping “a watchful eye” on the country’s strategic regions and will not allow any act of aggression by the enemy to go unnoticed.

While visiting the air defense center in the southeastern port city of Chabahar on Wednesday, Fard said that committed and expert personnel of air defense defend the country with a watchful eye, stressing, “We will not allow any mistake by the enemies for the sake of our authority and dignity.”

“The units of this force, by [exercising] intelligence, vigilance and keeping a watchful eye, will not allow any aggression by outsiders,” he added.

The top commander further noted that the northern Indian Ocean and the strategic region of southeastern Iran are under full surveillance of the air defense, stressing the region enjoys complete security.

Fard said the Chabahar air defense center is in charge of monitoring the sky of a part of the country where there is a lot of air and sea transportation to the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf, as well as to East Asia and Central Asia, adding that various types of surveillance equipment are deployed to the region to monitor any moves.

“All kinds of completely indigenous electronic interception, radar and missile systems, which are the result of round-the-clock efforts of the youth of this border and region, are deployed in this area, and the enemies know that we are very close to them in the region and we even monitor their breathing,” he added.

The senior commander reiterated that Iran’s air defense has long been capable of detecting and monitoring any flying object with any radar cross-section and uses powerful systems and weapons for tactical and defensive actions against offensive forces.

China Looks to the Arctic to Avoid Another Suez Slowdown “ناشونال انترست”: الصين تطلع إلى القطب الشمالي كممر بديل عن قناة السويس

لا تزال الملاحة في القطب الشمالي مقتصرة على كاسحات الجليد.
Navigation in the Arctic is still restricted to icebreakers.

Only time will tell if the Transpolar Route will pan out—if climate change and a shrinking polar ice cap will make this a truly viable maritime superhighway. But Beijing is betting it will.

by Andrew Latham

April 2, 2021 

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As the events in the Suez Canal over the past week have reminded us, the world’s great sea lanes—the arteries through which flows the lifeblood of the global economy—are defined as much by chokepoints as by open waters. Some of these chokepoints are well known: the Panama Canal, the Straits of Gibraltar, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Suez Canal itself. Others figure somewhat less prominently in our collective geographic imagination: the Strait of Molucca, the Turkish Straits, the Bab el-Mandeb or Gate of Tears, and the Lombok Strait. But make no mistake: whether well-known or not, choke points define the world’s seaway, and keeping those chokepoints unobstructed is a core interest of any nation that depends on seaborne trade for its wealth and wellbeing.

Again, as the events of the past week or so have made us keenly aware, accidental blockage of one of these chokepoints is an ever-present risk. There is always the possibility that a container ship or tanker will come to grief and obstruct one of the narrower choke points. But the real danger, the one that keeps both maritime insurance companies and naval strategic planners up at night, is the prospect of the purposeful closure of such choke points by military force, either during war or in conflicts short of war. These choke points can be pinched shut in times of conflict by mines, missiles, or blockades. This is much easier to do than controlling the high seas or denying access to those seas. And even the prospect of heightened tensions in places like the Strait of Hormuz can send maritime insurance rates skyrocketing. Should any of these vital passageways be closed due to a deliberate act of war, the geopolitical and economic consequences could be cataclysmic. And if they are closed by one party to a conflict at the expense of another.

It is against that backdrop that one must view the People’s Republic of China’s recent interest in the Arctic.

In January 2018, China introduced its Arctic Policy, which declared that China is a “Near Arctic” state. The document goes on to call for greater Chinese participation in “resource exploration and exploitation” in the region, and a greater role for China in regional forums. Beyond that document, China has also made clear that it envisions a greater role for the Chinese military in securing China’s polar interests. Simply put, China now sees itself as an active participant and major stakeholder in Arctic affairs. It also recognizes that it needs to develop the power projection capabilities—forces, basing infrastructure, etc.—that would enable it to fulfill its Arctic vocation.

The logic behind this new policy is twofold. On the one hand, there are considerable oil, natural gas, and other natural resources that are becoming increasingly accessible as the Arctic ice melts. Various studies, for example, show that the Arctic contains an estimated 22 percent of the world’s undiscovered fossil fuel resources, with perhaps 90 billion barrels of oil and 1,670 trillion cubic feet of natural gas located beneath the region’s disputed international waters. And the region also contains considerable deposits of rare earth elements (REEs)—minerals essential to cutting-edge military, computing, and environmentally-friendly technologies, such as electric vehicles, wind power turbines, and solar panels. China sees both commercial and strategic opportunities in the Arctic and is positioning itself to exploit those opportunities.

On the other hand, and at least equally importantly, Beijing is interested in the Arctic because it offers a less vulnerable route to the European market. At the moment, the vast majority of China’s trade with the Middle East, Africa, and Europe must pass through at least two of the world’s maritime chokepoints. The route to the Persian Gulf involves transiting both the Strait of Malacca and the Strait of Hormuz. Similarly, to sail from Shanghai to the Mediterranean, a ship must pass through the Strait of Malacca, the Gate of Tears, and the Suez Canal. At each of these chokepoints, transit can be denied by both hostile states and non-state actors.

Recognizing the strategic vulnerability inherent in this situation, Beijing has naturally begun seeking alternatives. One approach has been to invest in alternative overland trade routes through its Belt and Road Initiative. Another has been to build pipelines and transportation infrastructure linking the Pakistani port of Gwadar to Western China. And Beijing has aggressively courted the Panamanian government in order to secure Chinese access to the canal. China has even proposed building a canal through the Kra Isthmus in Thailand with the aim of bypassing the Straits of Molucca. Finally, Beijing has increased the size, capability, and reach of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy and developed the “String of Pearls”—a network of Chinese military and commercial facilities extending from the Chinese mainland to Port Sudan in the Horn of Africa—to support its efforts to keep Chinese maritime trade flowing across the Indo-Pacific region.

But perhaps the most ambitious approach has been to seek a route to Europe and onward that avoids all the major choke points from Shanghai to Piraeus, a route that is far less vulnerable to interdiction by hostile powers. This route, literally running across the top of the world, is the Transpolar or Trans-Arctic Route. Unlike the Northern Sea Route, another alternate Arctic passage that runs along Russia’s Arctic coastline and within Russian waters, the Transpolar Route is almost entirely in international waters. It runs from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean across the center of the Arctic Ocean, passing close to the North Pole. While currently navigable only by heavy icebreakers, and, therefore, not suited to commercial sea traffic, the shrinking of the polar ice cap means that by 2030 it will be passable by commercial vessels.

Such a route has compelling commercial advantages. For journeys between Europe and China, the Northern Sea Route can already be two to three weeks faster than the Suez Canal. By cutting straight across the Arctic, the Transpolar Route could save an additional two days. But it also offers something at least as important: the strategic advantage of not passing through any of the world’s major chokepoints.

Only time will tell if the Transpolar Route will pan out—if climate change and a shrinking polar ice cap will make this a truly viable maritime superhighway. But Beijing is betting it will. And the recent events in the Suez may well result in China doubling down on that bet.

Andrew Latham is a professor of political science at Macalester College in Saint Paul, Minnesota; and a Research Associate with the Centre for Defence and Security Studies, Canada. He has a Ph.D. in Political Science, with a concentration in International Relations and Strategic Studies.

Adaptedly translated into Arabic: Haitham Muzahim

“ناشونال انترست”: الصين تطلع إلى القطب الشمالي كممر بديل عن قناة السويس

الكاتب: أندرو لاثام

المصدر: ذا ناشونال انترست

تراهن بكين على أن تغيّر المناخ وتقلّص الغطاء الجليدي القطبي سيجعلان الطريق عبر القطب الشمالي طريقاً بحرياً سريعاً إلى أوروبا وما بعدها.

لا تزال الملاحة في القطب الشمالي مقتصرة على كاسحات الجليد.
لا تزال الملاحة في القطب الشمالي مقتصرة على كاسحات الجليد

كتب الأستاذ الجامعي والباحث الكندي أندرو لاثام مقالة في مجلة “ذا ناشونال انترست” الأميركية تناول فيها الأزمة الأخيرة في قناة السويس عندما سدّت سفينة شحن الممر المائي العالمي وعطلت مرور السفن التجارية لنحو أسبوع، كاشفاً أن الصين تفكر بممر مائي بديل عبر القطب الشمالي أقصر مسافة وأكثر أمناً، لتجارتها مع أوروبا والأميركيتين.

وقال الكاتب إن الأحداث التي وقعت في قناة السويس خلال الأسبوع الماضي، ذكّرتنا بأن الممرات البحرية الكبرى في العالم – الشرايين التي يتدفق من خلالها شريان الحياة للاقتصاد العالمي – يتم تحديدها من خلال نقاط الاختناق بقدر ما يتم تحديدها من خلال المياه المفتوحة. وأضاف أن بعض هذه الممرات معروفة جيداً على غرار قناة بنما، ومضيق جبل طارق، ومضيق هرمز، وقناة السويس نفسها. بينما ثمة ممرات أخرى أقل بروزاً في خيالنا الجغرافي الجماعي مثل مضيق ملوكا والمضيق التركي وباب المندب أو بوابة الدموع ومضيق لومبوك. 

وقال الكاتب إنه ينبغي ألا نخطئ سواء كانت هذه الممرات معروفة أم لا، فإن نقاط الاختناق تحدد ممر العالم البحري، والحفاظ على تلك النقاط الخانقة من دون عوائق هو مصلحة أساسية لأي دولة تعتمد على التجارة المنقولة بحراً من أجل ثروتها ورفاهيتها.

وأضاف أن أحداث الأسبوع الماضي جعلتنا ندرك جيداً أن الانسداد العرضي لإحدى نقاط الاختناق هذه يمثل خطراً دائماً. فهناك دائماً احتمال أن تتعطل سفينة أو ناقلة حاويات وتعيق إحدى نقاط الاختناق الأضيق. لكن الخطر الحقيقي، الذي يبقي شركات التأمين البحري والمخططين الاستراتيجيين البحريين مستيقظين في الليل، هو احتمال الإغلاق المتعمد لنقاط الاختناق هذه بالقوة العسكرية، إما أثناء الحرب أو في النزاعات من دون الحرب. إذ يمكن إغلاق نقاط الاختناق هذه في أوقات النزاع بواسطة الألغام أو الصواريخ أو الحصار. وهذا أسهل بكثير من السيطرة على أعالي البحار أو منع الوصول إلى تلك البحار. وحتى احتمال تصاعد التوترات في أماكن مثل مضيق هرمز يمكن أن يؤدي إلى ارتفاع شديد في أسعار التأمين البحري. وفي حالة إغلاق أي من هذه الممرات الحيوية بسبب عمل حربي متعمد، قد تكون العواقب الجيوسياسية والاقتصادية كارثية. 

خلفيات اهتمام الصين بالقطب الشمالي

ورأى الباحث أنه في ظل هذه الخلفية، يجب على المرء أن ينظر إلى الاهتمام الأخير لجمهورية الصين الشعبية بالقطب الشمالي. ففي كانون الثاني / يناير، قدمت الصين سياسة القطب الشمالي، والتي أعلنت فيها أن الصين دولة “بالقرب من القطب الشمالي”. وتدعو الوثيقة إلى مشاركة صينية أكبر في “استكشاف الموارد واستغلالها” في المنطقة، وإلى دور أكبر للصين في المنتديات الإقليمية الخاصة بالقطب. وإلى جانب تلك الوثيقة، أوضحت الصين كذلك أنها تتصور دورًا أكبر للجيش الصيني في تأمين المصالح القطبية للصين. وببساطة، ترى الصين نفسها الآن كمشارك نشط وصاحبة مصلحة رئيسية في شؤون القطب الشمالي. كما تدرك أنها بحاجة إلى تطوير قدراتها العسكرية، والبنية التحتية الأساسية، وما إلى ذلك والتي من شأنها أن تمكنها من الوفاء بمهمتها القطبية.

الموارد النفطية والمعدنية في القطب الشمالي

وأضاف الكاتب أن المنطق الكامن وراء هذه السياسة الصينية الجديدة ذو شقين. فهناك، من جهة، قدر كبير من النفط والغاز الطبيعي والموارد الطبيعية الأخرى التي يمكن الوصول إليها بشكل متزايد مع ذوبان الجليد في القطب الشمالي. وتظهر دراسات مختلفة أن القطب الشمالي يحتوي على ما يقدر بنحو 22 في المائة من موارد الوقود الأحفوري غير المكتشفة في العالم، مع ربما 90 مليار برميل من النفط و1670 تريليون قدم مكعب من الغاز الطبيعي، تقع تحت المياه الدولية المتنازع عليها في المنطقة. كما تحتوي المنطقة على رواسب كبيرة من العناصر الأرضية النادرة، وهي معادن ضرورية للتكنولوجيات العسكرية والحاسوبية والصديقة للبيئة المتطورة، مثل المركبات الكهربائية وتوربينات طاقة الرياح والألواح الشمسية. 

وترى الصين هذه الفرص التجارية والاستراتيجية في القطب الشمالي وهي تستعد لاستغلال تلك الفرص.

ومن جهة أخرى، وبنفس القدر من الأهمية على الأقل، تهتم بكين بالقطب الشمالي لأنه يقدم طريقاً أقل عرضة للخطر إلى السوق الأوروبية. في الوقت الحالي، يجب أن تمر الغالبية العظمى من تجارة الصين مع الشرق الأوسط وإفريقيا وأوروبا عبر اثنين على الأقل من الممرات البحرية في العالم. يشمل الطريق المؤدي إلى الخليج عبور كل من مضيق ملقا ومضيق هرمز. 

وللإبحار من مدينة شنغهاي الصينية إلى البحر الأبيض المتوسط​​، يجب أن تمر السفينة عبر مضيق ملقا وبوابة الدموع وقناة السويس. وفي كل من هذه النقاط الخانقة، يمكن أن تمنع كل من الدول المعادية والجهات الفاعلة غير الحكومية العبور.

وقال الكاتب إنه إدراكاً منها لهذا الضعف الاستراتيجي الموجود في هذا الوضع، بدأت بكين البحث عن بدائل. وكان أحد الأساليب هو الاستثمار في طرق التجارة البرية البديلة من خلال “مبادرة الحزام والطريق”. وكان الأسلوب الآخر هو بناء خطوط أنابيب وبنية تحتية للنقل تربط ميناء غوادر الباكستاني بغرب الصين.

كما دأبت بكين على التودد بقوة إلى الحكومة البنمية من أجل تأمين وصول الصين إلى القناة. واقترحت الصين حتى بناء قناة عبر كرا إيثموس في تايلاند بهدف تجاوز مضيق مولوكا. 

وأخيراً، زادت بكين حجم بحرية جيش التحرير الشعبي الصيني وقدراتها ووصولها وطورت “سلسلة اللآلئ” – وهي شبكة من المنشآت العسكرية والتجارية الصينية التي تمتد من البر الرئيسي الصيني إلى بورتسودان (في السودان) في القرن الأفريقي – لدعم جهودها للحفاظ على تدفق التجارة البحرية الصينية عبر منطقة المحيطين الهندي والهادئ.

البحث عن طريق أقصر وأضمن

وأضاف الباحث: قد يكون النهج الأكثر طموحاً هو البحث عن طريق إلى أوروبا وما بعدها يتجنب جميع نقاط الاختناق الرئيسية من شنغهاي إلى بيرايوس، وهو طريق أقل عرضة للاعتراض من قبل القوى المعادية. هذا الطريق، الذي يمتد عبر الجزء العلوي من العالم، هو طريق عبر القطب الشمالي. وعلى عكس طريق البحر الشمالي، وهو ممر قطبي بديل آخر، يمتد على طول ساحل القطب الشمالي لروسيا وداخل المياه الروسية، فإن الطريق العابر للقطب يقع بالكامل تقريباً في المياه الدولية. فهو يمتد من المحيط الأطلسي إلى المحيط الهادئ عبر وسط المحيط المتجمد الشمالي، ويمر بالقرب من القطب الشمالي. وفي حين أن الغطاء الجليدي القطبي لا يمكن ملاحته حاليًا إلا بواسطة كاسحات الجليد الثقيلة، وبالتالي فهو غير مناسب لحركة الملاحة البحرية التجارية، فإن تقلّص الغطاء الجليدي القطبي بحلول عام 2030 سيكون الطريق سالكاً للسفن التجارية.

وتابع أندرو لاثام يقول: مثل هذا الطريق له مزايا تجارية مقنعة. فيمكن أن يكون طريق بحر الشمال للرحلات بين أوروبا والصين، أسرع من قناة السويس بأسبوعين إلى ثلاثة أسابيع. ومن خلال قطع القطب الشمالي مباشرة، يمكن أن يوفر الطريق العابر للقطب يومين إضافيين. كما أن هذا الطريق يقدم شيئاً آخر بنفس الأهمية وهو الميزة الإستراتيجية المتمثلة في عدم المرور عبر أي من نقاط الاختناق الرئيسية في العالم.

وختم الكاتب قائلاً: إن الوقت فقط سيحدد ما إذا تغيّر المناخ وتقلّص الغطاء الجليدي القطبي سيجعلانه طريقاً بحرياً سريعاً قابلاً للتطبيق. لكن بكين تراهن على أنها ستفعل ذلك. وقد تؤدي الأحداث الأخيرة في السويس إلى أن تضاعف الصين رهانها هذا.

*أندرو لاثام أستاذ العلوم السياسية بكلية ماكالستر في سانت بول، مينيسوتا، وهو باحث مشارك في مركز دراسات الدفاع والأمن في كندا. 

نقله إلى العربية بتصرف: هيثم مزاحم

Iran engages in defensive ops facing Trump’s unpredictable final days

Turkey pivots to the center of The New Great Game

Turkey pivots to the center of The New Great Game

December 28, 2020

by Pepe Escobar with permission and first posted at Asia Times

When it comes to sowing – and profiting – from division, Erdogan’s Turkey is quite the superstar.

Under the delightfully named Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), the Trump administration duly slapped sanctions on Ankara for daring to buy Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile defence systems. The sanctions focused on Turkey’s defence procurement agency, the SSB.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu’s response was swift: Ankara won’t back down – and it is in fact mulling how to respond.

The European poodles inevitably had to provide the follow-up. So after the proverbial, interminable debate in Brussels, they settled for “limited” sanctions – adding a further list for a summit in March 2021. Yet these sanctions actually focus on as-yet unidentified individuals involved in offshore drilling in Cyprus and Greece. They have nothing to do with S-400s.

What the EU has come up with is in fact a very ambitious, global human-rights sanctions regime modeled after the US’s Magnitsky Act. That implies travel bans and asset freezes of people unilaterally considered responsible for genocide, torture, extrajudicial killings and crimes against humanity.

Turkey, in this case, is just a guinea pig. The EU always hesitates mightily when it comes to sanctioning a NATO member. What the Eurocrats in Brussels really want is an extra, powerful tool to harass mostly China and Russia.

Our jihadis, sorry, “moderate rebels”

What’s fascinating is that Ankara under Erdogan always seems to be exhibiting a sort of “devil may care” attitude.

Take the seemingly insoluble situation in the Idlib cauldron in northwest Syria. Jabhat al-Nusra – a.k.a. al-Qaeda in Syria – honchos are now involved in “secret” negotiations with Turkish-backed armed gangs, such as Ahrar al-Sharqiya, right in front of Turkish officials. The objective: to boost the number of jihadis concentrated in certain key areas. The bottom line: a large number of these will come from Jabhat al-Nusra.

So Ankara for all practical purposes remains fully behind hardcore jihadis in northwest Syria – disguised under the “innocent” brand Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Ankara has absolutely no interest in letting these people disappear. Moscow, of course, is fully aware of these shenanigans, but wily Kremlin and Defence Ministry strategists prefer to let it roll for the time being, assuming the Astana process shared by Russia, Iran and Turkey can be somewhat fruitful.

Erdogan, at the same time, masterfully plays the impression that he’s totally involved in pivoting towards Moscow. He’s effusive that “his Russian colleague Vladimir Putin” supports the idea – initially tabled by Azerbaijan – of a regional security platform uniting Russia, Turkey, Iran, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia. Erdogan even said that if Yerevan is part of this mechanism, “a new page may be opened” in so far intractable Turkey-Armenia relations.

It will help, of course, that even under Putin pre-eminence, Erdogan will have a very important seat at the table of this putative security organization.

The Big Picture is even more fascinating – because it lays out various aspects of Putin’s Eurasia balancing strategy, which involves as main players Russia, China, Iran, Turkey and Pakistan.

On the eve of the first anniversary of the assassination of Gen Soleimani, Tehran is far from cowed and “isolated”. For all practical purposes, it is slowly but surely forcing the US out of Iraq. Iran’s diplomatic and military links to Iraq, Syria and Lebanon remain solid.

And with less US troops in Afghanistan, the fact is Iran for the first time since the “axis of evil” era will be less surrounded by the Pentagon. Both Russia and China – the key nodes of Eurasia integration – fully approve it.

Of course the Iranian rial has collapsed against the US dollar, and oil income has fallen from over $100 billion a year to something like $7 billion. But non-oil exports are going well over $30 billion a year.

All is about to change for the better. Iran is building an ultra-strategic pipeline from the eastern part of the Persian Gulf to the port of Jask in the Gulf of Oman – bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, and ready to export up to 1 million barrels of oil a day. China will be the top customer.

President Rouhani said the pipeline will be ready by the summer of 2021, adding that Iran plans to be selling over 2.3 million barrels of oil a day next year – with or without US sanctions alleviated by Biden-Harris.

Watch the Golden Ring

Iran is well linked to Turkey to the west and Central Asia to the east. An extra important element in the chessboard is the entrance of freight trains directly linking Turkey to China via Central Asia -bypassing Russia.

Earlier this month, the first freight train left Istanbul for a 8,693 km, 12-day trip, crossing below the Bosphorus via the brand new Marmary tunnel, inaugurated a year ago, then along the East-West Middle Corridor via the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) railway, across Georgia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.

In Turkey this is known as the Silk Railway. It was the BTK that reduced freight transport from Turkey to China from one month to only 12 days. The whole route from East Asia to Western Europe can now be travelled in only 18 days. BTK is the key node of the so-called Middle Corridor from Beijing to London and the Iron Silk Road from Kazakhstan to Turkey.

All of the above totally fits the EU’s agenda – especially Germany’s: implementing a strategic trade corridor linking the EU to China, bypassing Russia.

This would eventually lead to one of the key alliances to be consolidated in the Raging Twenties: Berlin-Beijing.

To speed up this putative alliance, the talk in Brussels is that Eurocrats would profit from Turkmen nationalism, pan-Turkism and the recent entente cordiale between Erdogan and Xi when it comes to the Uighurs. But there’s a problem: many a turcophone tribe prefers an alliance with Russia.

Moreover, Russia is inescapable when it comes to other corridors. Take, for instance, a flow of Japanese goods going to Vladivostok and then via the Trans-Siberian to Moscow and onwards to the EU.

The bypass-Russia EU strategy was not exactly a hit in Armenia-Azerbaijan: what we had was a relative Turkey retreat and a de facto Russian victory, with Moscow reinforcing its military position in the Caucasus.

Enter an even more interesting gambit: the Azerbaijan-Pakistan strategic partnership, now on overdrive in trade, defence, energy, science and technology, and agriculture. Islamabad, incidentally, supported Baku on Nagorno-Karabakh.

Both Azerbaijan and Pakistan have very good relations with Turkey: a matter of very complex, interlocking Turk-Persian cultural heritage.

And they may get even closer, with the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INTSC) increasingly connecting not only Islamabad to Baku but also both to Moscow.

Thus the extra dimension of the new security mechanism proposed by Baku uniting Russia, Turkey, Iran, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia: all the Top Four here want closer ties with Pakistan.

Analyst Andrew Korybko has neatly dubbed it the “Golden Ring” – a new dimension to Central Eurasian integration featuring Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, Azerbaijan and the central Asian “stans”. So this all goes way beyond a possible Triple Entente: Berlin-Ankara-Beijing.

What’s certain as it stands is that the all-important Berlin-Moscow relationship is bound to remain as cold as ice. Norwegian analyst Glenn Diesen summed it all up: “The German-Russian partnership for Greater Europe was replaced with the Chinese-Russian partnership for Greater Eurasia”.

What’s also certain is that Erdogan, a master of pivoting, will find ways to simultaneously profit from both Germany and Russia.

US Nuclear Submarine Sails into Gulf, ‘Israel’ Sends Own Sub through Suez Canal

US Nuclear Submarine Sails into Gulf, ‘Israel’ Sends Own Sub through Suez Canal

By Staff, Agencies

A nuclear-powered US submarine has passed through the Strait of Hormuz and into the Gulf in an apparent attempt to provoke Iran, while an ‘Israeli’ sub reportedly made a similar excursion into the Red Sea.

The USS Georgia [SSGN-729] is an Ohio-class nuclear-powered sub carrying, not ballistic nuclear warheads, but up to 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles – or as many as 66 special operatives, the Navy pointed out on Monday, announcing the boat’s transit into the “Arabian Gulf,” as the US calls the body of water.

The Georgia was escorted by the guided missile cruisers USS Port Royal [CG 73] and USS Philippine Sea [CG 58], and made the transit on Sunday, the Navy announced a day later. It was only the second such acknowledgment in eight years.

Following the announcement, ‘Israeli’ public broadcaster Kan reported on Monday evening that one of the Zionist entity’s submarines transited the Suez Canal last week, with Egypt’s approval. However, the Kan report cited “Arab intelligence sources” while the ‘Israeli’ military officially declined to comment.

The naval demonstrations come in the wake of last month’s assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a senior scientist who led Iran’s nuclear program. Tehran has blamed the Zionist entity for the murder.

The US Central Command [CENTCOM] commander, General Kenneth McKenzie, is currently visiting the Middle East, though his exact whereabouts have not been revealed. Earlier this month, the US sent two nuclear-capable bombers to the region in another “message” to Tehran, citing unspecified reports of a potential threat of attacks.

The Strait of Hormuz is heavily patrolled by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps [IRGC] ships, which has led to stand-offs with US naval forces operating in the area in the past. The anniversary of the US drone attack that killed IRGC commander General Qassem Soleimani near Baghdad in January is also fast approaching.

غواصّة هجومية أميركية في الخليج وتزويد الكيان بغوّاصات تحمل رؤوساً نووية..

توجهت غواصة هجومية أميركية ومدمرتين تابعتين للبحرية الأميركية إلى الخليج العربي، وفي هذا الصدد، أعلنت البحرية الأميركية في بيان لها، أن غواصة «يو أس أس جورجيا» يمكن تزويدها بـ154 صاروخ توماهوك، وقادرة على نقل 66 عنصراً من القوات الخاصة». وأرفق البيان بصور تظهر الغواصة وهي تطفو على سطح البحر يواكبها طراداً «يو أس أس بورت رويال» و»يو أس أس فيليبين سي» في هذا المضيق الاستراتيجي، الذي تهدّد إيران بانتظام بإغلاقه.

وشدّدّ سلاح البحرية الأميركية على أنّ «وجود الغواصة في المنطقة يظهر تعهد الولايات المتحدة (…) بضمان أمن الممرات البحرية، بفضل قدرات واسعة تسمح لها بأن تكون على أهبة الاستعداد للدفاع عن نفسها ضد أي هجوم في أي لحظة».

وجدير بالذكر أنّ البحرية الأميركية عادة، لا تكشف عن مواقع غواصاتها في العالم.

فيما كشفت القناة 11 العبرية، نقلاً عن مصادر استخباراتيّة عربية، أنّ «إسرائيل أرسلت غواصة باتجاه إيران، عبر قناة السويس بتصريح مصري، وذلك لإرسال رسالة إلى طهران، وأشار مراسل الشؤون العربيّة، روعي كييس في تقريره إلى أنّ الجيش الإسرائيليّ رفض التعقيب على الخبر».

من ناحيتها، قالت صحيفة «إسرائيل اليوم» إنّ «الغواصة كانت تسير فوق الماء علانية، وعبرت إلى البحر الأحمر من قناة السويس بتصريح مصري»، لافتةً في الوقت ذاته إلى أنّ «غواصة هجومية أميركية ومدمرتين تابعتين للبحرية الأميركية اتجهت إلى الخليج، في رسالة أيضاً بأنّ واشنطن مستعدة لأي عمل في المنطقة».

ويأتي الكشف عن الغواصات «الإسرائيليّة» والأميركيّة في الخليج، بعد ساعاتٍ من تهديد الجنرال أفيف كوخافي رئيس أركان جيش الاحتلال إيران بـ»دفع ثمن باهظ في حال فكرت في مهاجمة أيّ أهداف إسرائيليّة»، ونقلت صحيفة (هآرتس) عنه قوله مساء أول أمس الإثنين إنّه «في حال نفذت إيران أو حلفائها تهديداتها سواء من جبهات قريبة أو بعيدة، فإنهم سيدفعون ثمناً باهظاً جداً».

وأضاف: «سنهاجم بكل قوة من يكون شريكاً بشكل جزئي أو كامل، كان قريباً أو بعيداً، في أي عمل ضدّ إسرائيل أو ضدّ أيّ أهداف إسرائيلية»، مشيراً إلى أنّ «الجيش مستعد للتعامل مع أي سيناريوهات ولديه خطط جاهزة لذلك».

ومن الجدير بالذكر، أنّ مجلة دير شبيغل الألمانية كانت نشرت تقريراً مُفصلاً عن مساعي التطوير الحثيثة في سلاح البحرية الإسرائيليّ والذي يُراد له أن يُصبح ذراعاً استراتيجية بعيدة المدى.

وكشفت المجلة في التقرير الذي استهلته بالتأكيد على أن «دولة الاحتلال تواصل العمل بهدوء بغية التحول إلى دولة غواصات بحرية عظمى»، أنّ «سلاح البحرية الإسرائيليّ تسلم رابع غواصة من طراز دولفين (غواصات دولفين تُصنع في ألمانيا تبلغ حمولتها 1550 طناً، تعمل بمحرك ديزل–كهربائي، يمكن تجهيزها لتحمل صواريخاً نووية) وأدخلها الخدمة تحت اسم (أحي تنين)».

ووصفت دير شبيغل عملية تسلح دولة الاحتلال بهذه الغواصات بأنها «عملية امتلاك مخزن نووي متحرك وخفي ينقذ دولة الاحتلال في حال تعرضها لهجوم نووي تعجز عن الرد عليه برياً»، كما نشرت صحيفة (يديعوت أحرونوت) تقريراً مُفصلاً عن الغواصة سابقة الذكر «أحي تنين» لفتت فيه إلى أنّ «الغواصة المذكورة والتي تربض في القاعدة البحرية بميناء حيفا ستتحول إلى غواصة عملياتية قريباً ما يعني أنّ سلاح البحرية الإسرائيليّ يتطوّر بقفزات نوعية في مجال الكشف عن الاتصالات والقتال والقدرة على المكوث تحت الماء بفضل أنظمة غير مرتبطة بالجو الخارجي».

يُشار إلى أنّ ألمانيا تقوم بتزويد «إسرائيل» بالغواصّات الأكثر تطوراً، والقادرة على حمل رؤوسٍ نوويّةٍ.

وفي هذا السياق، كان الجنرال المسؤول عن تفعيل الغواصات في سلاح البحريّة «الإسرائيليّ»، والذي لا يُسمح بنشر اسمه، قال إنّ «الغواصّة الجديدة هي آلية معقدّة ومُركبّة جداً، وبالتالي نحتاج إلى مقاتلين أكفاء لكي يقوموا بتفعيلها»، لافتاً إلى أنّه «في السنة الماضية قامت الغواصات بتنفيذ العديد من العمليات المُعقدّة، وبناءً على ذلك، حصلت على وسام الشرف من قائد البحريّة الإسرائيليّة»، على حدّ قوله.

جدير بالذكر في هذا السياق، أن هذه الغواصة تتمتع، بحسب التصريحات الأمنية «الإسرائيلية»، بـ»القدرة على إطلاق صواريخ موجهة تحمل رؤوساً نووية، وبكونها تُشكّل مركباً أساسياً في إستراتيجية الضربة الثانية للجيش الإسرائيليّ، في حال تلقّت إسرائيل ضربة ذريّة، بحيث تتوفّر لها القدرة على توجيه ضربةٍ مضادّةٍ».

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Expert explains Yemen’s global strategic value & why US/Saudis want it

Source

Description:

An expert on Yemen, Hassan Shaaban, explains the global strategic importance of Yemen and its Bab al-Mandeb waterway, and thus underlines the motives of the American-Saudi military campaign in the impoverished country.

Source: Al-Manar TV via Kalam Siyasi (YouTube Channel)

Date: Oct 25, 2020

(Important Note: Please help us keep producing independent translations for you by contributing as little as $1/month here)
https://www.youtube.com/embed/JtTiaZ73oqU?feature=oembed

Transcript:

Hassan Shaaban, Expert in Yemeni Affairs:

Ever since the bourgeoisie – which originated in Europe right after the fall of the feudal system – decided to colonize the (rest of the) world; extract its wealth; gain control over its (natural) resources; and turn its people into consuming animals; ever since that moment, the Western political psyche, which believes in power-based realism, has come to target every country that stands in its way, and every country that has any degree of influence.

Yemen is situated here, (next to) the Bab al-Mandeb (Strait). (This Strait) is located in a (strategically) vital region. 60% of Europe’s energy supply and one eighth of the global economy flows through (it). Millions of barrels of oil pass through (Bab al-Mandeb) every day.

You are talking about a country that has a grip over (the movement of trade) anywhere in the world, in any region of the world. (For that same reason), the British dug the Suez Canal to form a (direct shipping) route to India and Asia.

Well, Bab al-Mandab is naturally created by God. Britain paid a fortune to build the Suez Canal, and Egypt sacrificed the lives of thousands of its people who died during its construction. (Thus, imagine) how much (the West) is willing to sacrifice to (gain control over) Bab al-Mandeb?

Which (countries) are located near the Bab al-Mandab (Strait). What countries border this (connecting) canal and this line that links Bab al-Mandab to the Suez Canal and the Red Sea?

(First, there is) Saudi Arabia, the Arab Zionist entity that mirrors the Israeli Zionist entity and has a significant influence (in the region).

Host:

We will talk about the benefits that Saudi Arabia (would gain from controlling the Strait)…

Shaaban:

(Second), there is Egypt, historically the oldest and most powerful Arab state. Third, we have Sudan, the richest (in natural resources) and the largest country at some point in history.

Host:

The country that was split, they managed to partition it…

Shaaban:

And here (pointing to the location on the map) are Eritrea, Ethiopia – which used to border the Red Sea – Somalia and Djibouti..

Well, what is there in the Red Sea? Go back to what (Israeli) Zionists have written about the significance of this Sea. Did you know – I am  sure you do – that Eilat (a port city), known as “Umm Al-Rashrash” (in Arabic), is Israel’s only maritime outlet towards Asia? Linking (Israel) to the Red Sea – or as some Israeli strategists call it, “Lake David”, this outlet is vital for the survival of the (Israeli) Zionist entity.

———

Look at the incredible location of Yemen. The Yemeni coastline stretches for around 1,900 miles, equivalent to 2,400 or 2,500 km along the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea.  

Host:

That is 2,500 km along the two seas.

Shaaban:

Yes, (equivalent to) around 1,900 miles.

Did you know that successive Yemeni governments did not form a naval military power despite the important and strategic location of Yemen along the sea?

Host:

What is the reason for that? Why?

Shaaban:

The reason goes back to Yemeni political decision-making…

 Host:

(Decision-making) controlled by the US?…

Shaaban:

(Nods his head) (The absence of a naval force) was an order. When the martyr Yemeni president Ibrahim al-Hamdi came to power in the 1970s, when he started planning and called a conference to discuss the security of the Red Sea, he was assassinated, he was murdered. And the party responsible for the assassination was Saudi Arabia.

The vital location (of Yemen) is significantly important for the colonially-created Gulf entities , and for the (Israeli) Zionist entity, which represents probably the West’s largest global investment. (Yemen) overlooks all of Asia all the way to China, and has this huge region (east Africa) within its reach. (In other words), (Yemen) is (in the region) where Asia and Africa meet. This is where Yemen is located.


Host
:

Do you mean that having control over the Bab al-Mandeb (Strait) is equivalent to having control over global trade (between) continents?

Shaaban:

Yes. It (also) means having control over the strait classified as the third most important worldwide.

Host:

What does the control over the Bab al-Mandeb Strait mean?

Shaaban:

As you have just mentioned in the report, having control over the Bab al-Mandab (Strait) means having control over the movement of the world’s economy, global oil transportation, and the route connecting Europe to India and China, and thereby to Asia. Even if we turn the opposite way, and focus on China and the port that it is trying to build in Pakistan in order to extend its maritime reach, (we will see that…)

Host:

(…that the route) will pass through Yemen and the (Bab al-Mandeb) Strait.

Shaaban:

It is a must. (China’s) “Belt and Road Initiative” passes through (the Strait).

Host:

China’s strategic project will only be completed if…

Shaaban:

(If) it goes through Bab al-Mandeb. Let me tell you something about Bab al-Mandeb. If you zoom in on it, you will see an island that divides it into…

Host:

(into) two channels…

Shaaban:

Exactly. The first (channel) is next to Djibouti, and is not suitable for deep-sea shipping. The other (channel) is about 12 km (in width) on the Yemeni (side). Yes, it is subject to international law, but it falls under Yemen’s sovereignty. (Not to mention that) it is the only channel (among the two) that is navigable. Therefore, what you called the bottleneck is the Yemeni (side of) Bab al-Mandeb.

Host:

The Yemeni (Bab al-Mandeb) not the Djiboutian for example..

Shaaban:

Exactly. Accordingly, if you also take into account (the importance of) Socotra and the group of islands. For example, look, roughly in this region, above Bab al-Mandab, there are groups of islands such as Zuqar, Perim and Hanish. In fact, the Hanish Islands have always been under dispute between Eritrea and Yemen. A confrontation (between the two countries) took place in the nineties because of this issue. The mountain in Zuqar Island rises to 600 meters, or approximately 624 meters. Do you know what this means?

Host:

It means that it overlooks the whole region..

Shaaban:

What if I told you that there are Israeli military bases in Eritrea? There are corvettes and naval vessels navigating in the Red Sea. They are docked at Eretria. What if I told you that there is a French military base in Djibouti, and an American military presence as well?

Host:

There is also a Chinese military base in Djibouti.

Shaaban:

I am going get to that (topic). Djibouti was established only to be rented like hotel. The US, Israel and other countries maintain (military) presences in Somalia. If you go up towards Sudan, you would notice that the Turks recently entered the sea area. The whole world is fighting over this area.

Then in 2014, the Yemenis, despite all that we have talked about, started a revolution, i.e. the revolution of September 21, 2014 under the leadership of Sayyed Abdulmalik Badr al-Din al-Houthi. Sayyed Abdulmalik, who forms (a strong) leadership, project and vision said: “Yemen will not be divided into regions”. Notice that after they (Saudi-led coalition) divided Mahra, Socotra, Abyan – I think – and Hadramout, (Ansarullah) brought them together as one region. In other words, Saudi Arabia wanted (to gain control over) some regions. However, this great Yemeni leader (Sayyed Abdulmalik) came and said: “we will not allow this”.  Saudi Arabia said…

Host:

The question we are seeking to answer is: “why did they wage a war (on Yemen)? Why did they start an aggression against Yemen?”

Shaaban:

Yes. Saudi Arabia said that it wants to (build) an oil pipeline that will pass through here. Furthermore, a Saudi magazine once wrote about (building) a marine channel that will also pass through Hadramout, thus connecting Saudi Arabia to the Arabian Sea. Here is the Indian Ocean and here is the Arabian Sea. What is the idea? Saudi Arabia, and others parties hiding behind it, want to avoid (the Strait of) Hormuz (controlled by) Iran, the great power that they cannot clash with. The solution for (Saudi Arabia) is to flee to the South (to Bab al-Mandeb).

Therefore, unlike what the (Saudis) say, their war in Yemen is not a war against Iran, it is a war to get away from Iran’s influence over the Strait of Hormuz. But unfortunately for them, there is a large force in Yemen called “Ansarullah”, a force with national vision unlike what they try to portray. (Ansarullah forces) have a Yemeni national project. They want to preserve the unity (in Yemen), the unity that the Emirates wants to destroy by dividing (the country). We can get into more details (about that) later. The Yemeni revolution led by Sayyed Abdulmalik gained influence and control over Ma’rib and the channels that we talked about, and thereby saying that “Yemen will not be any country’s backyard”. Yemen is not a territory that anyone can manipulate. It is an independent, sovereign state that has policies, that has the right to be present in this strategic region of the world.

How did (Saudi Arabia and its allies) perceive this issue? They believe that these Yemeni forces (Ansarullah), in one way or another, serve the interest of the Islamic Republic (of Iran) because they do not support America, they do not support Israel, nor are they tools like the (leaders who governed) before the (2014) revolution, before Sayyed Abdulmalik, before Sayyed Hussein’s project, the Quranic project based on the Quranic path.  They are not tools. They are not venal. They do not accept bribes as did many politicians who historically controlled Yemen’s political decision-making.

They will not be assassinated like they assassinated the martyr (President Ibrahim) al-Hamdi, even if they assassinated Sayyed Hussein (al-Houthi). The assassin of Sayyed Hussein got the order directly from these countries (Saudi Arabia and its allies), (who ordered the killing) of Sayyed Hussein because he chanted the slogan: “Death to America, Death to Israel”. What does “Death to America, Death to Israel “mean? (It means) death to the interests of those (who govern) this region of the world, death to their entities in this region of the world, death to their policy in this region of the world, and life to Yemen.

When Sayyed (Hussein al-Houthi) came up with the strategic slogan of Ansarullah, i.e. “Victory to Islam”, (he meant) the Islam that represents the identity and the independence of a nation. Yes, in this case, Yemen with its (strategic) geographical location and its rich history turned into a strategic political project. (Therefore,) it was necessary for (Saudi Arabia and its allies) to wage a war, to start this aggression. It was necessary for them to do what they are currently doing.

Host:

It was also a must for Ansarullah to fight them.

Shaaban:

(They fought) in defense (against the Saudi aggression)

Host:

We will show the outcomes of the (Saudi) aggression (on Yemen) in a quick report, then we will continue…

—-

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Arab analysts predict ‘action-packed’ & ‘dangerous’ end to Trump presidency

When exactly did the AngloZionist Empire collapse?

“”the exact moment when the Empire collapsed: 8 January 2020. What happened that day? Following the murder of Major General Qasem Soleimani in a US drone attack (on the 3 of January 2020) the Iranians retaliated by using missiles to attack several US bases in Iraq.” The Saker

ٍSource

When exactly did the AngloZionist Empire collapse?

[this analysis was written for the Unz Review]

I remember one evening in distant 1991, I was sitting with a few friends in the SAIS cafeteria discussing the future of the United States with a few very smart students, including a Pakistani Army Colonel, a US captain who served on aircraft carriers and a Spanish diplomat: we all agreed that “the system” was perfect, so to speak, and that the US would only collapse if a strong external shock would hit it hard. We all agreed that the combination of the best propaganda machine in history, the stupidification resulting from many daily hours of watching the Idiot Tube and, finally, a very effective repression apparatus made for a quasi perfect dictatorship: the one which only gives the illusion of democracy and people power.

Years later, in 2017, I read by J.M. Greer’s brilliant book “Twilight’s Last Gleaming” which I later reviewed here. I would say that this book is one of the best one written on the topic of a future US collapse, even though this is a (very well written) fiction book because it brilliantly illustrates the kind of mindset which can get a supposed superpower in a very bad situation.

To me, this all made perfect sense, but only because I, and my SAIS friends, never even considered the possibility that the US Nomenklatura would commit national suicide and, in the process, bring down the AngloZionist Empire.

Yet this is exactly what happened.

So when did all this begin?

There are many possible answers to this question. Some say with the murder of Kennedy. Others point to Clinton, whose Presidency inaugurated a policy of armed imperialism all over the planet; this administration was also the first one to witness a major “coming out” of the Neocons (many of which had already infiltrated the GOP during Reagan). Then there is 9/11 with the subsequent GWOT. As I said, these are all valid candidates, and there are many more.

My personal view is that the main initiation of collapse was under Barack Obama, a truly exceptionally weak President who would have made an absolutely terrific used cars salesman, but who as a President lost control of his own country and even his own administration. It was under Obama that we saw the vacuum at the top resulting in various agencies (DoS, DoD, CIA, Pentagon, etc.) all developing their own “foreign policies” which resulted in total chaos on the foreign policy front. Needless to say, having harpies such as Hillary Clinton or Susan Rice or Samantha Power involved did not help!

What is it with western women which makes them become even more bellicose than men when they reach a position of power?! Looking at women like Thatcher or Hillary, I wonder if these women are not carefully selected precisely for their nasty character and need to prove themselves as “equal” to men by being even more nasty and murderous than male politicians…

Since his election, it has become very popular to blame Donald Trump for everything which went wrong under his Presidency and, indeed, there is much which ought to be blamed on him. But what so many people overlook is that almost everything which went wrong under Trump began with Obama! When Trumps says that he inherited an awful mess, he is absolutely correct. Not that this absolves him from his own contribution to chaos and collapse!

And, in truth, the biggest difference between Obama and Trump, is that Trump did not start any real wars. Yes, he did threaten a lot of countries with military attacks (itself a crime under international law), but he never actually gave the go ahead to meaningfully attack (he only tried some highly symbolic and totally ineffective strikes in Syria). I repeat – the man was one of the very few US Presidents who did not commit the crime of aggression, the highest possible crime under international law, above crimes against humanity or even genocide, because the crime of aggression “contains within itself the accumulated evil”, to use the words words of the chief US prosecutor at Nuremberg and Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States, Robert H. Jackson. I submit that just for this reason alone any decent person should choose him over Biden (who himself is just a front for “President” Harris and a puppet of the Clinton gang). Either that, or don’t vote at all if your conscience does not allow you to vote for Trump. But voting Biden is unthinkable for any honest person, at least in my humble opinion.

In the Trump years something absolutely amazing happened: while Trump and his administration were busy destroying the Empire externally, the Dems put all the energy and resources into destroying Trump. However, to paraphrase a quote by the Russian author Zinoviev, “they targeted at Trump but they hit the United States” (Zinoviev’s quote was about the putative anti-Soviets: “Метили в коммунизм, а попали в Россию” which can be translated as “they were aiming at Communism, but they hit Russia”).

What took place next was precisely what my SAIS friends and I could never have imagined: the US ruling elites committed collective suicide.

Suicide is typically executed in three phases: decision to commit suicide, the act of suicide itself, and then death. If we accept that the decision to engage in behavior which can only be described as suicidal was taken sometime during the Obama years, then this begs the question of where we are now. In other words, has the Empire already died or is it still only in agony?

I was asking myself that question the other day when I suddenly realized that I might have determined the exact moment when the Empire collapsed: 8 January 2020.

What happened that day?

Following the murder of Major General Qasem Soleimani in a US drone attack (on the 3 of January 2020) the Iranians retaliated by using missiles to attack several US bases in Iraq. According to the US side, there were only minor injuries, which is very likely since the Iranians warned the US by several backdoor channels what they were planning on doing. This argument was used by Trump and his supporters to say that the Iranian reaction was lame, ineffective and could be completely ignored.

In my opinion, the moment when the Trump Administration made this statement is when the death certificate of the Empire was signed. Why?

First, the low number of US casualties (probably higher than the official one, US troops were evacuated and treated in several countries) is due to only to the fact that Iranians are superb strategists: they realized that killing a lot of US soldiers would force Trump to strongly retaliate, so they chose not to kill them. Instead, they put a gun to their collective heads. How?

Think about it: the Iranian counter-strike showed the entire world something which most people did not realize: Iranian missiles (ballistic and cruise) were much more accurate than previously thought. In fact, they clearly have some form of terminal guidance. Simply put, the Iranians have proven that they can very precisely, deliver a warhead of several hundred pounds of high explosives pretty much anywhere in the Middle East. To give you a visual idea of their current coverage check out this page.

This bears repeating: the Iranians have now proven that they can place several hundred pounds of high explosives anywhere in the Middle-East with a CEP of about 3-5 meters!

Remember the Khobar Towers bombing? Yes, this was a truck bomb with much more explosives than a missile can carry (by at least an order of magnitude), but that truck was also parked far away from the towers! Yet just under 500 people died that day.

There are plenty of similar US military installations in the Middle-East, many buildings housing hundreds of US servicemen. Just imagine what would have happened if the Iranians had decided to take out as many lives as possible and placed a couple of their missiles right on top of, say, 10 such facilities – just imagine the cost in lives!

But the Iranians are smart, and they chose a much wiser course of action: they used their missiles essentially to kick Uncle Shmuel where it hurts, but they mainly demonstrated their ability to create thousands of US casualties in just a few minutes.

Obviously, another, now undeniable, Iranian capability is the ability to instantly destroy any gas/oil facility in the region: wells, processing facilities, terminals – you name it: if it is important and expensive, the Iranians can destroy it.

The Iranians also have the ability to close down the Strait of Hormuz and even to attack USN ships, possibly including carriers.

Last, but certainly not least, this now proven Iranian capability puts every government building in danger, along with any crucial facility (Dimona anybody?).

At this point of the conversation all the well-propagandized flag-waving morons will immediately stand up and declare something along these lines:

“So what?! If these sand-niggers cross the line they know that we can massively bomb them! Heck, we can even nuke them and send them back to the stone age! Let them try and they will see what the wrath of the most powerful nation on earth, with the most formidable military in history, can do to a bunch of semi-literate peasants, LOL! Let see if their “Allah” will save them!”

Apart from all the ignorant cliches typically spewed by this crowd, there is a major analytical error underlying this “logic” (I use the term generously): the Iranians have lived with this threat since 1979 and they are used to it. Not only that, but they know for a fact that these are empty threats. Oh sure, the US can do to Iran what “Israel” did to Lebanon in the course of the “Divine Victory” war of 2006, or what NATO has done to Serbia during the Kosovo war (1998-1999): kill civilians and destroy the country’s infrastructure to punish these civilians for supporting the “wrong” (i.e. not US approved) government. But if Uncle Shmuel does to Iran what Israel did to Lebanon, the result will be the same: the Iranians will rebuild (they are very good at that) and they will bounce back twice as strong. As for their martyrs, the more there will be, the stronger the Iranian people’s resistance (check this article written by an Iranian scholar in excellent English explaining the roots of the unique ethos of Shia Islam).

Last, but also not least, the US Presidents and their aides are quite aware of the current state of the US military: it is a military which simply cannot win even simple conflicts, a military hopelessly gutted by insane liberal ideologies, a military whose entire surface fleet has been made obsolete by hypersonic missiles (which the Iranians also seem to be working on!) and a military whose Air Force spent absolutely obscene amounts of money to create a supposedly “5th generation” fighter which in many ways is inferior to US 4th generation aircraft!

This begs the question of what still works in the US military. In my opinion, the US submarine fleet is still very powerful, and the US nuclear deterrence posture is still solid. Other than that? Meh…

Bottom line: the arguments that the US did not retaliate because it did not care, or that it does not care because “we can nuke them” are typically civilian nonsense which have no connection whatsoever to the real world (just imagine the political consequences for the already highly unpopular US following a nuclear strike, especially on a non-nuclear country!)

Okay, but then why did the US not retaliate?

Simply put, because Uncle Shmuel does not have what it takes to take on Iran. Heck, Uncle Shmuel can’t even take on Venezuela (!), which is an extremely weakened country right on the US’s door step. Frankly, if this or the next President decides that the US needs to “pick up a crappy little country and throw it against a wall just to prove we are serious” then I recommend Grenada. I know, Grenada was basically undefended in 1983 (mainly by a few lightly armed Cuban engineers) and it took the 82nd airborne to rescue the totally defeated and clueless US special forces stuck under fire, but I think that since 1983 the Pentagon had the time to make a some “lessons learned” exercises and that by now the US probably could re-invade this tiny island without repeating one of the worst disasters in military history.

Conclusion

The Empire died on the day the Iranians hit these US facilities and the US did absolutely nothing. In fact, since that date, what have we seen:

  • The Iraqis are slowly but surely kicking the US forces out of Iraq
  • The number of attacks against US forces in Iraq has sharply increased, including against the massive US bunker complex known as “the Green Zone” which now is not “green” at all.
  • The Iranians are merrily continuing to make fun of Uncle Shmuel.
  • The US failed at renewing the anti-Iran sanctions at the UN Security Council and Russia has already declared that she is willing to sell S-400s to Iran. You can also count China in this great weapons market.
  • The US is also in retreat in Syria where anti-US attacks are becoming more dangerous (and regular clashes with ground forces of the Russian task force in Syria are also becoming a potentially very dangerous phenomenon).
  • In Yemen, the Iranian backed Houthis have basically won the war and defeated both the KSA and the US.
  • In Afghanistan, the US and its “coalition of the losers” has stayed even longer than the Soviets and has achieved exactly nothing except a total and most humiliating defeat. The contrast between the performance of the Soviet 40th Army (poorly equipped and averagely commanded) force of conscripts and what the lavishly equipped (but also poorly commanded) US professional force achieved is absolutely amazing on all levels, but the most telling is how much the Soviets actually built in Afghanistan (even facilities that the US still uses every day!). Uncle Shmuel only destroyed everything except the opium trade…

In other words, everything is going exactly according to the announced Iranian game plan to completely kick the US out of the Middle-East. I know, this seems unthinkable right now, but please make the list of all the putatively “unthinkable” things which have since happened and you will see how dangerous it is to assume that something will never happen.

When Georgia attacked the Russian peacekeepers in Tskhinval there were also limited casualties, but Russia immediately counter-attacked defeated in Georgian military in 3 days, and that in spite of being numerically smaller (at least in the initial phases of the counter-attack) and too slow to react (a typical Russian weakness). And the message to “to whom it may concern” sent by the Russian counter-attack was simple: attack a Russian base, or kill Russian soldiers and you will be killed: every time a Russian serviceman has been killed in Syria the Russians retaliate with strong missiles and air strikes. In other instances Russian Spetsnaz units killed selective Takfiri commanders. And everybody “got it”, even the Turks who have not been able to force the Russian to stop shrinking their areas of control in Syria to a small fraction of what it used to be.

Mind you – Russia has no desire to become an Empire or even some kind of superpower (Russians realize how evil any empire is for the country which is supposed to host it: they suffered for over 300 years in this toxic status of “empire” and they had enough! Only dumb Hillary and even dumber Brzezinski still thought that Russia wanted to “rebuild the USSR” when, in fact, Putin’s policies were designed to disengage and separate from the former Russian periphery which only drained immense Russian ressources and never gave Russia anything useful (and nevermind the Warsaw Treaty Organization which was just as ressources-consuming and useless as the periphery). All they want is being taken seriously and treated with respect, not as a superpower, but simply as a major, but truly sovereign, power.

Compare that with the unique blend of stratospheric megalomania, narcissistic self-worship and crass ignorance of the leaders of the US and you immediately see that the Empire is not dying anymore, it is already dead and has been dead for many months now.

What comes next?

Well, the election of course. I submit that under no scenario will the next administration be able to reverse that course and somehow miraculously resurrect the Empire. Empires don’t resurrect. It has been tried in the past (even by Napoleon), it never works. Once empires lose momentum and, especially, their ideological credibility, they are over. Oh sure, a dead body still can emit some heat for a while, some organs, or even cells, can work for a while longer, but dead is dead. Mostly dead bodies bloat and stink, which also applies to dead empires.

This is not to say that the outcome will not matter, it will – but only for the future of the United States themselves. Simply put, the upcoming vote is either a vote for upholding law and order in the US, or for total nihilism. On a deeper level, it is a vote for the US or against it: the Dems all hate this country and its “deplorables”; they also hate almost every aspect of US history (overturned statues are but symbols of this hatred) and they hate what they call “a racist system” in spite of the fact that the real causes of racial tensions in the US have very little to do with the “system” and everything to do with the unique problems of blacks in a culture with mainly European roots.

The Empire is dead. And I hope and believe that its death will mark the rebirth of the United States as a “normal” country (which is what happened to all the other former empires).

Until that happens, we can now at least rest assured that this amazingly evil Empire has finally died, even if very few noticed this.

P.S. While writing this column my thoughts turned to Major General Qasem Soleimani, who was cowardly murdered (he was on a diplomatic mission) by Trump. I imagined what he would have said if somebody had offered him the following deal: Haj Qasem – would you agree to be murdered by the modern Crusaders if your martyrdom would turn out to be the “straw” which will break the Empire’s “camel” back? I think that he would reply with tears of joy in his eyes “Glory be to God for allowing me this immense honor and joy and for allowing me to become a shadid (God’s witness)!” Soleimani was a soldier, the real thing, not a disguised businessman or politician, and he knew that he could die literally every moment of his life. He died as a general in charge of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and of its elite Quds Force. It sure looks to me that Trump in his ignorant arrogance gave Soleimani the best death he could have wished for. May this great man rest in peace!

It’s better for U.S. forces to come to Persian Gulf to be within our reach: IRGC deputy chief

Source

September 23, 2020 – 19:54

TEHRAN – While the U.S. describes the deployment of its aircraft career to the Persian Gulf region as a show of force aimed at deterring Iran, a senior Iranian military official has welcomed the deployment of American troops to the region, saying they will be within Iran’s reach.

“It is better for them to come to the Persian Gulf because they will be within our reach,” Ali Fadavi, the deputy commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), told the Arabic-language al-Mayadeen news network aired on Wednesday.

In a provocative move, the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Nimitz has entered the Persian Gulf for the first time in ten months on September 18, only one day before the U.S. announced the return of all UN sanctions on Iran. The U.S. navy said in a statement on the same day that the aircraft carrier’s transit through the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf was “scheduled,” a clear attempt to dispel speculation over the timing of the deployment of USS Nimitz to the Persian Gulf, which came against a backdrop of heightened tensions between Tehran and Washington. However, the U.S. move was widely seen as a show of force to Iran.

“If the Americans commit new folly, they will be faced with unimaginable force.”The IRGC has flown home-made surveillance drones over the aircraft carrier and publish images of it. The images show fighter planes parked on the carrier’s deck.

In a clear warning to the U.S., Fadavi said, “If the Americans commit new folly, they will be faced with unimaginable force.”

Iran also flexed its military muscles only a week before the U.S. aircraft carrier entered the Persian Gulf. On September 11, the Iranian Army began three-day military exercises in the Sea of Oman and parts of the Indian Ocean. The exercises, codenamed “Zolfaqar-99”, took place in areas spanning 2 million square kilometers. During the exercises, Iran’s armed forces unveiled and tested their state-of-the-art weapons, including a number of cruise missiles and combat drones.

Analysts believe that the Zolfaqar-99 exercises were meant to send a clear message to the U.S. that Iran is fully prepared to thwart any U.S. military action.

The IRGC has flown home-made surveillance drones over the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier and publish images of it. The images show fighter planes parked on the carrier’s deck.“Iran conducted the Zolfaqar-99 exercises to show that it is able to defend itself in the face of any U.S, military action,” Seyed Jalal Sadatian, Iran’s former ambassador to the UK, told the Tehran Times.

Sadatian previously told the Tehran Times that Trump was likely to wage limited war with Iran to boost his reelection chances. According to the former ambassador, U.S. allies in the region cannot confront Iran alone and that the U.S. had no other options than strengthening their bases in the region to besiege Iran in a way that it would not be able to respond to any aggression.

“But they will fail because Iran has a strategic depth in the region and the U.S. can’t undermine this strategic depth. So if they attack Iran, they will be bogged down in the region. Any attack against Iran could pave the way for the U.S. to be mired in the region,” the former ambassador warned.

The U.S. threatened to attack Iran after an American publication accused Iran of weighing a plot to assassinate U.S. ambassador to South Africa Lana Marks in retaliation for the assassination of the IRGC’s Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani in early January. Iran strongly denied the accusation. 

After leaving the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers, the U.S. sought to build a maritime coalition against Iran in the Persian Gulf. But its efforts in this regard failed to yield concrete results.

Fadavi said the Americans will never be able to create coalitions against Iran in the region. 
“They have not and will not succeed in forming any new coalition against the Islamic Revolution,” the top general said, adding, “The U.S. efforts to create coalitions against the Islamic Revolution are old.”

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Shadowplay revisited: how Eurasia is being reshaped

Shadowplay revisited: how Eurasia is being reshaped

AUGUST 27, 2020

by Pepe Escobar with permission by the author and first posted at Asia Times

We have seen how China is meticulously planning all its crucial geopolitical and geoeconomic moves all the way to 2030 and beyond.

What you are about to read next comes from a series of private, multilateral discussions among intel analysts, and may helpfully design the contours of the Big Picture.

In China, it’s clear the path ahead points to boosting internal demand, and shifting monetary policy towards the creation of credit to consolidate the building of world-class domestic industries.

In parallel, there’s a serious debate in Moscow that Russia should proceed along the same path. As an analyst puts it, “Russia should not import anything but technologies it needs until it can create them themselves and export only the oil and gas that is required to pay for imports that should be severely restricted. China still needs natural resources, which makes Russia and China unique allies. A nation should be as self-sufficient as possible.”

That happens to mirror the exact CCP strategy, as delineated by President Xi in his July 31 Central Committee meeting.

And that also goes right against a hefty neoliberal wing in the CCP – collaborationists? – who would dream of a party conversion into Western-style social democracy, on top of it subservient to the interests of Western capital.

Comparing China’s economic velocity now with the US is like comparing a Maserati Gran Turismo Sport (with a V8 Ferrari engine) with a Toyota Camry. China, proportionately, holds a larger reservoir of very well educated young generations; an accelerated rural-urban migration; increased poverty eradication; more savings; a cultural sense of deferred gratification; more – Confucianist – social discipline; and infinitely more respect for the rationally educated mind. The process of China increasingly trading with itself will be more than enough to keep the necessary sustainable development momentum going.

The hypersonic factor

Meanwhile, on the geopolitical front, the consensus in Moscow – from the Kremlin to the Foreign Ministry – is that the Trump administration is not “agreement-capable”, a diplomatic euphemism that refers to a de facto bunch of liars; and it’s also not “legal-capable”, an euphemism applied, for instance, to lobbying for snapback sanctions when Trump has already ditched the JCPOA.

President Putin has already said in the recent past that negotiating with Team Trump is like playing chess with a pigeon: the demented bird walks all over the chessboard, shits indiscriminately, knocks over pieces, declares victory, then runs away.

In contrast, serious lobbying at the highest levels of the Russian government is invested in consolidating the definitive Eurasian alliance, uniting Germany, Russia and China.

But that would only apply to Germany after Merkel. According to a US analyst, “the only thing holding back Germany is that they can expect to lose their car exports to the US and more, but I tell them that can happen right away because of the dollar-euro exchange rate, with the euro becoming more expensive.”

On the nuclear front, and reaching way beyond the current Belarus drama – as in there will be no Maidan in Minsk – Moscow has made it very clear, in no uncertain terms, that any missile attack from NATO will be interpreted as a nuclear attack.

The Russian defensive missile system – including the already tested S-500s, and soon the already designed S-600s – arguably may be 99% effective. That means Russia would still have to absorb some punishment. And this is why Russia has built an extensive network of nuclear bomb shelters in big cities to protect at least 40 million people.

Russian analysts interpret China’s defensive approach along the same lines. Beijing will want to develop – if they have not already done so – a defensive shield, and still retain the ability to strike back against a US attack with nuclear missiles.

The best Russian analysts, such as Andrei Martyanov, know that the three top weapons of a putative next war will be offensive and defensive missiles and submarines combined with cyber warfare capabilities.

The key weapon today – and the Chinese understand it very clearly – is nuclear submarines. Russians are observing how China is building their submarine fleet – carrying hypersonic missiles – faster than the US. Surface fleets are obsolete. A wolf pack of Chinese submarines can easily knock out a carrier task force. Those 11 US carrier task forces are in fact worthless.

So in the – horrifying – event of the seas becoming un-sailable in a war, with the US, Russia and China blocking all commercial traffic, that’s the key strategic reason pushing China to obtain as much of its natural resources overland from Russia.

Even if pipelines are bombed they can be fixed in no time. Thus the supreme importance for China of Power of Siberia – as well as the dizzying array of Gazprom projects.

The Hormuz factor

A closely guarded secret in Moscow is that right after German sanctions imposed in relation to Ukraine, a major global energy operator approached Russia with an offer to divert to China no less than 7 million barrels a day of oil plus natural gas. Whatever happens, the stunning proposal is still sitting on the table of Shmal Gannadiy, a top oil/gas advisor to President Putin.

In the event that would ever happen, it would secure for China all the natural resources they need from Russia. Under this hypothesis, the Russian rationale would be to bypass German sanctions by switching its oil exports to China, which from a Russian point of view is more advanced in consumer technology than Germany.

Of course this all changed with the imminent conclusion of Nord Stream 2 – despite Team Trump taking no prisoners to sanction everyone in sight.

Backdoor intel discussions made it very clear to German industrialists that if Germany would ever lose its Russian source of oil and natural gas, coupled with the Strait of Hormuz shut down by Iran in the event of an American attack, the German economy might simply collapse.

There have been serious cross-country intel discussions about the possibility of a US-sponsored October Surprise involving a false flag to be blamed on Iran. Team Trump’s “maximum pressure” on Iran has absolutely nothing to do with the JCPOA. What matters is that even indirectly, the Russia-China strategic partnership has made it very clear that Tehran will be protected as a strategic asset – and as a key node of Eurasia integration.

Cross-intel considerations center on a scenario assuming a – quite unlikely – collapse of the government in Tehran. The first thing Washington would do in this case is to pull the switch of the SWIFT clearing system. The target would be to crush the Russian economy. That’s why Russia and China are actively increasing the merger of the Russian Mir and the Chinese CHIPS payment systems, as well as bypassing the US dollar in bilateral trade.

It has already been gamed in Beijing that were that scenario ever to take place, China might lose its two key allies in one move, and then have to face Washington alone, still on a stage of not being able to assure for itself all the necessary natural resources. That would be a real existential threat. And that explains the rationale behind the increasing interconnection of the Russia-China strategic partnership plus the $400 billion, 25-year-long China-Iran deal.

Bismarck is back

Another possible secret deal already discussed at the highest intel levels is the possibility of a Bismarckian Reinsurance Treaty to be established between Germany and Russia. The inevitable consequence would be a de facto Berlin-Moscow-Beijing alliance spanning the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), alongside the creation of a new – digital? – Eurasian currency for the whole Eurasian alliance, including important yet peripheral actors such as France and Italy.

Well, Beijing-Moscow is already on. Berlin-Beijing is a work in progress. The missing link is Berlin-Moscow.

That would represent not only the ultimate nightmare for Mackinder-drenched Anglo-American elites, but in fact the definitive passing of the geopolitical torch from maritime empires back to the Eurasian heartland.

It’s not a fiction anymore. It’s on the table.

Adding to it, let’s do some little time traveling and go back to the year 1348.

The Mongols of the Golden Horde are in Crimea, laying siege to Kaffa – a trading port in the Black Sea controlled by the Genoese.

Suddenly, the Mongol army is consumed by bubonic plague.

They start catapulting contaminated corpses over the walls of the Crimean city.

So imagine what happened when ships started sailing again from Kaffa to Genoa.

They transported the plague to Italy.

By 1360, the Black Death was literally all over the place – from Lisbon to Novgorod, from Sicily to Norway. As much as 60% of Europe’s population may have been killed – over 100 million people.

A case can be made that the Renaissance, because of the plague, was delayed by a whole century.

Covid-19 is of course far from a medieval plague. But it’s fair to ask.

What Renaissance could it be possibly delaying?

Well, it might well be actually advancing the Renaissance of Eurasia. It’s happening just as the Hegemon, the former “end of history”, is internally imploding, “distracted from distraction by distraction”, to quote T.S. Eliot. Behind the fog, in prime shadowplay pastures, the vital moves to reorganize the Eurasian land mass are already on.

US Forces Ordered to Stay in Bunkers During IRGC Drills – Reports

US Forces Ordered to Stay in Bunkers During IRGC Drills - Reports

By Staff, Agencies

US military forces deployed to the Gulf kingdoms were reportedly ordered to stay in bunkers as Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guard Corps [IRGC] fired ballistic missiles during normal military drills off the strategic Hormuz Strait.

Citing her “sources” and those of the CNN, a reporter for the BBC wrote in a post on her official page on Tuesday that US troops based in the United Arab Emirates [UAE], Kuwait and Qatar had been briefly put on “high alert” due to “concerns” over Iran’s missile activities.

Other sources identified the facilities as al-Dhafra base in the UAE and al-Udeid air base in Qatar, saying the American troops deployed there had been asked to stay in bunkers.

US forces in Qatar and the UAE “went on high alert early Tuesday and were asked to stay in bunkers, due to intelligence indicators showing an Iranian ballistic missile had been fired and possibly headed their way, US officials tell CNN,” a Twitter user said, indicating that the US forces had misread the trajectory of Iranian missiles.

The reported high-alert notice came as the IRGC started the final phase of large-scale aerial and naval drills, codenamed Payambar-e Azam [The Great Prophet] 14, involving the elite force’s Aerospace Division and Navy.

The maneuvers were held in the general area of the Hormozgan Province, west of the strategic Hormuz Strait, and the Gulf.

The drills featured missiles, vessels, drones, and radars, and are designed to practice both offensive and defensive missions.

Tuesday saw the Corps stage strikes against the life-size replica of a Nimitz-class US aircraft carrier, which the American navy usually sails into the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz.

The high-alert notice came a week after Leader of the Islamic Revolution His Eminence Imam Sayyed Ali Khamenei said Iran would definitely deliver a “counterblow” to the United States over the assassination of top anti-terror commander Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani in January.

“The Islamic Republic of Iran will never forget this issue and will definitely deal the counterblow to the Americans,” Imam Khamenei said while receiving visiting Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi in Tehran last week.

General Soleimani, former commander of the IRGC’s Quds Force, was assassinated in a US airstrike at Baghdad airport on January 3 upon an order by US President Donald Trump.

US bases in Middle East were on high alert over Iranian missile fire: report

By News Desk -2020-07-29

The first batch of Rafale fighter jets are set to arrive in India’s Ambala Air Base on Wednesday afternoon after covering the 7,000 kilometers from France. The jets were stationed overnight at the Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE. The same air base houses US and French troops and aircraft.

An alert was sounded at the Al Dhafra Air Base in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) late Tuesday after intelligence indicators hinted at an incoming “Iranian missile possibly headed that way”. The Rafale fighter jets bound for India were also at the UAE base as part of an overnight stay.

Barbara Starr from American news channel CNN reported that there was intel on Iranian missiles, but US officials confirmed that no missile struck the facility. Three Iranian missiles reportedly splashed down in the waters near the base as part of Iran’s current military exercises. More

Watch: Iranian ballistic missiles fired from underground sites

BEIRUT, LEBANON (4:45 P.M.) – The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) fired ballistic missiles from underground platforms during the second day of the massive ‘Great Prophet-14’ military drills in the southwestern part of the country on Wednesday.

The successful firing of ballistic missiles fully hidden in camouflage deep under the ground is an important achievement that could pose serious challenges to enemy intelligence agencies, the Fars News Agency reported.

In the final stage of the IRGC’s drills, which took place in the waters of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, the IRGC Aerospace Force’s drones attacked a mock enemy aircraft carrier and targeted its command tower and bridge.

Also, the IRGC’s Sukhoi-22 fighters bombed and destroyed pre-determined targets in Faror Islands with winged bombs.

The IRGC Aerospace and Naval Forces’ joint exercises played an important part of the drills and demonstrated surprising tactics, including the establishment of joint command systems, joint control, combined tactics and combat methods.

Iranian forces conduct naval operation against mock US aircraft carrier: video

Successful missile combat operations were carried out by firing two surface-to-surface Hurmoz and Fateh missiles, and a ballistic missile at specific targets, as well as launching precision-striking air defense missiles.

Also, Shahed 181, Mohajer and Bavar drones successfully attacked and destroyed hypothetical enemy targets and positions at this stage of the drills.

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Strategic Oil Pipeline Project Launched in Iran

Source

Strategic Oil Pipeline Project Launched in Iran

By Staff, Agencies

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on Thursday launched a major oil pipeline project which enables the country to export its oil without relying on the Strait of Hormuz.

“What is strategic about this project is that many countries in the region have managed to find a second way so that they can export their oil using other routes whenever the Strait of Hormuz faces danger,” Rouhani said while inaugurating the project.

With the launch of the 1,000-kilometer pipeline from Goreh to Jask, the country’s oil exports will no longer be linked to the Hormuz Strait and will not be stopped even if the international maritime passage was to be closed one day, he added.

The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important chokepoint for oil, where almost a fifth of the world’s crude or about 20 million barrels per day [bpd] passes through to markets in Asia, Europe, North America and beyond.

Shipping through the narrow strait, with the lane just three kilometers wide in either direction at its narrowest point, has become fraught since the US began building its military presence in the Persian Gulf.

The pipeline will bring oil from Goreh in Bushehr to Jask, making it strategically important as the country’s second-largest crude oil export terminal.

The Kharg Island terminal deep in the Gulf is currently Iran’s key outlet, accounting for 90 percent of its oil exports. To reach Kharg, tankers must pass the Strait of Hormuz.

Rouhani said that Leader of the Islamic Revolution His Eminence Imam Sayyed Ali Khamenei had told him that the project was “the most strategic work” his administration had undertaken.

The new terminal is close to Chabahar which Iran is developing in cooperation with other countries, most notably India.

Chabahar is about to become a key link in the International North South Transport Corridor [INSTC], a multi-modal network of ship, rail and road routes to move freight between India, Iran, Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia, Central Asia and Europe.

It offers a key trade and transport corridor that presents a cheaper and shorter alternative to the traditional route through the Suez Canal.

The terminal would be connected to Iran’s Caspian Sea port of Neka, enabling Tehran to boost shipments of oil from Caspian producers.